Volume effects of late term normal tissue toxicity in prostate cancer radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonta, Dacian Viorel

Modeling of volume effects for treatment toxicity is paramount for optimization of radiation therapy. This thesis proposes a new model for calculating volume effects in gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) following radiation therapy for prostate carcinoma. The radiobiological and the pathological basis for this model and its relationship to other models are detailed. A review of the radiobiological experiments and published clinical data identified salient features and specific properties a biologically adequate model has to conform to. The new model was fit to a set of actual clinical data. In order to verify the goodness of fit, two established NTCP models and a non-NTCP measure for complication risk were fitted to the same clinical data. The method of fit for the model parameters was maximum likelihood estimation. Within the framework of the maximum likelihood approach I estimated the parameter uncertainties for each complication prediction model. The quality-of-fit was determined using the Aikaike Information Criterion. Based on the model that provided the best fit, I identified the volume effects for both types of toxicities. Computer-based bootstrap resampling of the original dataset was used to estimate the bias and variance for the fitted parameter values. Computer simulation was also used to estimate the population size that generates a specific uncertainty level (3%) in the value of predicted complication probability. The same method was used to estimate the size of the patient population needed for accurate choice of the model underlying the NTCP. The results indicate that, depending on the number of parameters of a specific NTCP model, 100 (for two parameter models) and 500 patients (for three parameter models) are needed for accurate parameter fit. Correlation of complication occurrence in patients was also investigated. The results suggest that complication outcomes are correlated in a patient, although the correlation coefficient is rather small.

Patient-specific parameter estimation in single-ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

PubMed Central

Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.

2017-01-01

Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892

A framework for scalable parameter estimation of gene circuit models using structural information.

PubMed

Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Fan, Ming; Wang, Suojin; Gao, Xin

2013-07-01

Systematic and scalable parameter estimation is a key to construct complex gene regulatory models and to ultimately facilitate an integrative systems biology approach to quantitatively understand the molecular mechanisms underpinning gene regulation. Here, we report a novel framework for efficient and scalable parameter estimation that focuses specifically on modeling of gene circuits. Exploiting the structure commonly found in gene circuit models, this framework decomposes a system of coupled rate equations into individual ones and efficiently integrates them separately to reconstruct the mean time evolution of the gene products. The accuracy of the parameter estimates is refined by iteratively increasing the accuracy of numerical integration using the model structure. As a case study, we applied our framework to four gene circuit models with complex dynamics based on three synthetic datasets and one time series microarray data set. We compared our framework to three state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods and found that our approach consistently generated higher quality parameter solutions efficiently. Although many general-purpose parameter estimation methods have been applied for modeling of gene circuits, our results suggest that the use of more tailored approaches to use domain-specific information may be a key to reverse engineering of complex biological systems. http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/Pages/Software.aspx. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Parameter Stability of the Functional–Structural Plant Model GREENLAB as Affected by Variation within Populations, among Seasons and among Growth Stages

PubMed Central

Ma, Yuntao; Li, Baoguo; Zhan, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Luquet, Delphine; de Reffye, Philippe; Dingkuhn, Michael

2007-01-01

Background and Aims It is increasingly accepted that crop models, if they are to simulate genotype-specific behaviour accurately, should simulate the morphogenetic process generating plant architecture. A functional–structural plant model, GREENLAB, was previously presented and validated for maize. The model is based on a recursive mathematical process, with parameters whose values cannot be measured directly and need to be optimized statistically. This study aims at evaluating the stability of GREENLAB parameters in response to three types of phenotype variability: (1) among individuals from a common population; (2) among populations subjected to different environments (seasons); and (3) among different development stages of the same plants. Methods Five field experiments were conducted in the course of 4 years on irrigated fields near Beijing, China. Detailed observations were conducted throughout the seasons on the dimensions and fresh biomass of all above-ground plant organs for each metamer. Growth stage-specific target files were assembled from the data for GREENLAB parameter optimization. Optimization was conducted for specific developmental stages or the entire growth cycle, for individual plants (replicates), and for different seasons. Parameter stability was evaluated by comparing their CV with that of phenotype observation for the different sources of variability. A reduced data set was developed for easier model parameterization using one season, and validated for the four other seasons. Key Results and Conclusions The analysis of parameter stability among plants sharing the same environment and among populations grown in different environments indicated that the model explains some of the inter-seasonal variability of phenotype (parameters varied less than the phenotype itself), but not inter-plant variability (parameter and phenotype variability were similar). Parameter variability among developmental stages was small, indicating that parameter values were largely development-stage independent. The authors suggest that the high level of parameter stability observed in GREENLAB can be used to conduct comparisons among genotypes and, ultimately, genetic analyses. PMID:17158141

New Uses for Sensitivity Analysis: How Different Movement Tasks Effect Limb Model Parameter Sensitivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winters, J. M.; Stark, L.

1984-01-01

Original results for a newly developed eight-order nonlinear limb antagonistic muscle model of elbow flexion and extension are presented. A wider variety of sensitivity analysis techniques are used and a systematic protocol is established that shows how the different methods can be used efficiently to complement one another for maximum insight into model sensitivity. It is explicitly shown how the sensitivity of output behaviors to model parameters is a function of the controller input sequence, i.e., of the movement task. When the task is changed (for instance, from an input sequence that results in the usual fast movement task to a slower movement that may also involve external loading, etc.) the set of parameters with high sensitivity will in general also change. Such task-specific use of sensitivity analysis techniques identifies the set of parameters most important for a given task, and even suggests task-specific model reduction possibilities.

Simulation model for electron irradiated IGZO thin film transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayananda, G. K.; Shantharama Rai, C.; Jayarama, A.; Kim, Hyun Jae

2018-02-01

An efficient drain current simulation model for the electron irradiation effect on the electrical parameters of amorphous In-Ga-Zn-O (IGZO) thin-film transistors is developed. The model is developed based on the specifications such as gate capacitance, channel length, channel width, flat band voltage etc. Electrical parameters of un-irradiated IGZO samples were simulated and compared with the experimental parameters and 1 kGy electron irradiated parameters. The effect of electron irradiation on the IGZO sample was analysed by developing a mathematical model.

Process-based soil erodibility estimation for empirical water erosion models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A variety of modeling technologies exist for water erosion prediction each with specific parameters. It is of interest to scrutinize parameters of a particular model from the point of their compatibility with dataset of other models. In this research, functional relationships between soil erodibilit...

The Specification of Causal Models with Tetrad IV: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landsheer, J. A.

2010-01-01

Tetrad IV is a program designed for the specification of causal models. It is specifically designed to search for causal relations, but also offers the possibility to estimate the parameters of a structural equation model. It offers a remarkable graphical user interface, which facilitates building, evaluating, and searching for causal models. The…

Ecophysiological parameters for Pacific Northwest trees.

Treesearch

Amy E. Hessl; Cristina Milesi; Michael A. White; David L. Peterson; Robert E. Keane

2004-01-01

We developed a species- and location-specific database of published ecophysiological variables typically used as input parameters for biogeochemical models of coniferous and deciduous forested ecosystems in the Western United States. Parameters are based on the requirements of Biome-BGC, a widely used biogeochemical model that was originally parameterized for the...

Metal mixture modeling evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches.

PubMed

Farley, Kevin J; Meyer, Joseph S; Balistrieri, Laurie S; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin R; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Stephen; Mebane, Christopher A; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C; Santore, Robert C; Tipping, Edward

2015-04-01

As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the US Geological Survey (USA), HDR|HydroQual (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (United Kingdom) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided in the present study. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by the Windermere humic aqueous model [WHAM]; specific or nonspecific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single vs multiple types of binding sites on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong interrelationships among the model parameters (binding constants, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed. © 2014 SETAC.

76 FR 54510 - Notice of Availability of Proposed Models for Plant-Specific Adoption of Technical Specifications...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-01

... Models for Plant-Specific Adoption of Technical Specifications Task Force Traveler TSTF-500, Revision 2... Specifications Task Force (TSTF) Traveler TSTF- 500, Revision 2, ``DC Electrical Rewrite--Update to TSTF-360....8.6, ``Battery Cell Parameters.'' Additionally, a new Administrative Controls program, titled...

A strain-, cow-, and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in dairy cattle herds.

PubMed

Gussmann, Maya; Kirkeby, Carsten; Græsbøll, Kaare; Farre, Michael; Halasa, Tariq

2018-07-14

Intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle lead to economic losses for farmers, both through reduced milk production and disease control measures. We present the first strain-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in a dairy cattle herd. The model can be used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of different prevention and control strategies against IMI. The objective of this study was to describe a transmission framework, which simulates spread of IMI causing pathogens through different transmission modes. These include the traditional contagious and environmental spread and a new opportunistic transmission mode. In addition, the within-herd transmission dynamics of IMI causing pathogens were studied. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of input parameters on model predictions. The results show that the model is able to represent various within-herd levels of IMI prevalence, depending on the simulated pathogens and their parameter settings. The parameters can be adjusted to include different combinations of IMI causing pathogens at different prevalence levels, representing herd-specific situations. The model is most sensitive to varying the transmission rate parameters and the strain-specific recovery rates from IMI. It can be used for investigating both short term operational and long term strategic decisions for the prevention and control of IMI in dairy cattle herds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inference of reactive transport model parameters using a Bayesian multivariate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carniato, Luca; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

2014-08-01

Parameter estimation of subsurface transport models from multispecies data requires the definition of an objective function that includes different types of measurements. Common approaches are weighted least squares (WLS), where weights are specified a priori for each measurement, and weighted least squares with weight estimation (WLS(we)) where weights are estimated from the data together with the parameters. In this study, we formulate the parameter estimation task as a multivariate Bayesian inference problem. The WLS and WLS(we) methods are special cases in this framework, corresponding to specific prior assumptions about the residual covariance matrix. The Bayesian perspective allows for generalizations to cases where residual correlation is important and for efficient inference by analytically integrating out the variances (weights) and selected covariances from the joint posterior. Specifically, the WLS and WLS(we) methods are compared to a multivariate (MV) approach that accounts for specific residual correlations without the need for explicit estimation of the error parameters. When applied to inference of reactive transport model parameters from column-scale data on dissolved species concentrations, the following results were obtained: (1) accounting for residual correlation between species provides more accurate parameter estimation for high residual correlation levels whereas its influence for predictive uncertainty is negligible, (2) integrating out the (co)variances leads to an efficient estimation of the full joint posterior with a reduced computational effort compared to the WLS(we) method, and (3) in the presence of model structural errors, none of the methods is able to identify the correct parameter values.

Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winkel, Brian J.

2011-01-01

We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

Gestation-Specific Changes in the Anatomy and Physiology of Healthy Pregnant Women: An Extended Repository of Model Parameters for Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Pregnancy.

PubMed

Dallmann, André; Ince, Ibrahim; Meyer, Michaela; Willmann, Stefan; Eissing, Thomas; Hempel, Georg

2017-11-01

In the past years, several repositories for anatomical and physiological parameters required for physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling in pregnant women have been published. While providing a good basis, some important aspects can be further detailed. For example, they did not account for the variability associated with parameters or were lacking key parameters necessary for developing more detailed mechanistic pregnancy physiologically based pharmacokinetic models, such as the composition of pregnancy-specific tissues. The aim of this meta-analysis was to provide an updated and extended database of anatomical and physiological parameters in healthy pregnant women that also accounts for changes in the variability of a parameter throughout gestation and for the composition of pregnancy-specific tissues. A systematic literature search was carried out to collect study data on pregnancy-related changes of anatomical and physiological parameters. For each parameter, a set of mathematical functions was fitted to the data and to the standard deviation observed among the data. The best performing functions were selected based on numerical and visual diagnostics as well as based on physiological plausibility. The literature search yielded 473 studies, 302 of which met the criteria to be further analyzed and compiled in a database. In total, the database encompassed 7729 data. Although the availability of quantitative data for some parameters remained limited, mathematical functions could be generated for many important parameters. Gaps were filled based on qualitative knowledge and based on physiologically plausible assumptions. The presented results facilitate the integration of pregnancy-dependent changes in anatomy and physiology into mechanistic population physiologically based pharmacokinetic models. Such models can ultimately provide a valuable tool to investigate the pharmacokinetics during pregnancy in silico and support informed decision making regarding optimal dosing regimens in this vulnerable special population.

An initial-abstraction, constant-loss model for unit hydrograph modeling for applicable watersheds in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2007-01-01

Estimation of representative hydrographs from design storms, which are known as design hydrographs, provides for cost-effective, riskmitigated design of drainage structures such as bridges, culverts, roadways, and other infrastructure. During 2001?07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, investigated runoff hydrographs, design storms, unit hydrographs,and watershed-loss models to enhance design hydrograph estimation in Texas. Design hydrographs ideally should mimic the general volume, peak, and shape of observed runoff hydrographs. Design hydrographs commonly are estimated in part by unit hydrographs. A unit hydrograph is defined as the runoff hydrograph that results from a unit pulse of excess rainfall uniformly distributed over the watershed at a constant rate for a specific duration. A time-distributed, watershed-loss model is required for modeling by unit hydrographs. This report develops a specific time-distributed, watershed-loss model known as an initial-abstraction, constant-loss model. For this watershed-loss model, a watershed is conceptualized to have the capacity to store or abstract an absolute depth of rainfall at and near the beginning of a storm. Depths of total rainfall less than this initial abstraction do not produce runoff. The watershed also is conceptualized to have the capacity to remove rainfall at a constant rate (loss) after the initial abstraction is satisfied. Additional rainfall inputs after the initial abstraction is satisfied contribute to runoff if the rainfall rate (intensity) is larger than the constant loss. The initial abstraction, constant-loss model thus is a two-parameter model. The initial-abstraction, constant-loss model is investigated through detailed computational and statistical analysis of observed rainfall and runoff data for 92 USGS streamflow-gaging stations (watersheds) in Texas with contributing drainage areas from 0.26 to 166 square miles. The analysis is limited to a previously described, watershed-specific, gamma distribution model of the unit hydrograph. In particular, the initial-abstraction, constant-loss model is tuned to the gamma distribution model of the unit hydrograph. A complex computational analysis of observed rainfall and runoff for the 92 watersheds was done to determine, by storm, optimal values of initial abstraction and constant loss. Optimal parameter values for a given storm were defined as those values that produced a modeled runoff hydrograph with volume equal to the observed runoff hydrograph and also minimized the residual sum of squares of the two hydrographs. Subsequently, the means of the optimal parameters were computed on a watershed-specific basis. These means for each watershed are considered the most representative, are tabulated, and are used in further statistical analyses. Statistical analyses of watershed-specific, initial abstraction and constant loss include documentation of the distribution of each parameter using the generalized lambda distribution. The analyses show that watershed development has substantial influence on initial abstraction and limited influence on constant loss. The means and medians of the 92 watershed-specific parameters are tabulated with respect to watershed development; although they have considerable uncertainty, these parameters can be used for parameter prediction for ungaged watersheds. The statistical analyses of watershed-specific, initial abstraction and constant loss also include development of predictive procedures for estimation of each parameter for ungaged watersheds. Both regression equations and regression trees for estimation of initial abstraction and constant loss are provided. The watershed characteristics included in the regression analyses are (1) main-channel length, (2) a binary factor representing watershed development, (3) a binary factor representing watersheds with an abundance of rocky and thin-soiled terrain, and (4) curve numb

Analyzing chromatographic data using multilevel modeling.

PubMed

Wiczling, Paweł

2018-06-01

It is relatively easy to collect chromatographic measurements for a large number of analytes, especially with gradient chromatographic methods coupled with mass spectrometry detection. Such data often have a hierarchical or clustered structure. For example, analytes with similar hydrophobicity and dissociation constant tend to be more alike in their retention than a randomly chosen set of analytes. Multilevel models recognize the existence of such data structures by assigning a model for each parameter, with its parameters also estimated from data. In this work, a multilevel model is proposed to describe retention time data obtained from a series of wide linear organic modifier gradients of different gradient duration and different mobile phase pH for a large set of acids and bases. The multilevel model consists of (1) the same deterministic equation describing the relationship between retention time and analyte-specific and instrument-specific parameters, (2) covariance relationships relating various physicochemical properties of the analyte to chromatographically specific parameters through quantitative structure-retention relationship based equations, and (3) stochastic components of intra-analyte and interanalyte variability. The model was implemented in Stan, which provides full Bayesian inference for continuous-variable models through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Graphical abstract Relationships between log k and MeOH content for acidic, basic, and neutral compounds with different log P. CI credible interval, PSA polar surface area.

Parameter Identification Flight Test Maneuvers for Closed Loop Modeling of the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batterson, James G. (Technical Monitor); Morelli, E. A.

1996-01-01

Flight test maneuvers are specified for the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). The maneuvers were designed for closed loop parameter identification purposes, specifically for longitudinal and lateral linear model parameter estimation at 5,20,30,45, and 60 degrees angle of attack, using the Actuated Nose Strakes for Enhanced Rolling (ANSER) control law in Thrust Vectoring (TV) mode. Each maneuver is to be realized by applying square wave inputs to specific pilot station controls using the On-Board Excitation System (OBES). Maneuver descriptions and complete specifications of the time / amplitude points defining each input are included, along with plots of the input time histories.

PyLDTk: Python toolkit for calculating stellar limb darkening profiles and model-specific coefficients for arbitrary filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parviainen, Hannu

2015-10-01

PyLDTk automates the calculation of custom stellar limb darkening (LD) profiles and model-specific limb darkening coefficients (LDC) using the library of PHOENIX-generated specific intensity spectra by Husser et al. (2013). It facilitates exoplanet transit light curve modeling, especially transmission spectroscopy where the modeling is carried out for custom narrow passbands. PyLDTk construct model-specific priors on the limb darkening coefficients prior to the transit light curve modeling. It can also be directly integrated into the log posterior computation of any pre-existing transit modeling code with minimal modifications to constrain the LD model parameter space directly by the LD profile, allowing for the marginalization over the whole parameter space that can explain the profile without the need to approximate this constraint by a prior distribution. This is useful when using a high-order limb darkening model where the coefficients are often correlated, and the priors estimated from the tabulated values usually fail to include these correlations.

Relative efficiency of joint-model and full-conditional-specification multiple imputation when conditional models are compatible: The general location model.

PubMed

Seaman, Shaun R; Hughes, Rachael A

2018-06-01

Estimating the parameters of a regression model of interest is complicated by missing data on the variables in that model. Multiple imputation is commonly used to handle these missing data. Joint model multiple imputation and full-conditional specification multiple imputation are known to yield imputed data with the same asymptotic distribution when the conditional models of full-conditional specification are compatible with that joint model. We show that this asymptotic equivalence of imputation distributions does not imply that joint model multiple imputation and full-conditional specification multiple imputation will also yield asymptotically equally efficient inference about the parameters of the model of interest, nor that they will be equally robust to misspecification of the joint model. When the conditional models used by full-conditional specification multiple imputation are linear, logistic and multinomial regressions, these are compatible with a restricted general location joint model. We show that multiple imputation using the restricted general location joint model can be substantially more asymptotically efficient than full-conditional specification multiple imputation, but this typically requires very strong associations between variables. When associations are weaker, the efficiency gain is small. Moreover, full-conditional specification multiple imputation is shown to be potentially much more robust than joint model multiple imputation using the restricted general location model to mispecification of that model when there is substantial missingness in the outcome variable.

Rapid Debris Analysis Project Task 3 Final Report - Sensitivity of Fallout to Source Parameters, Near-Detonation Environment Material Properties, Topography, and Meteorology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, Peter

2014-01-24

This report describes the sensitivity of predicted nuclear fallout to a variety of model input parameters, including yield, height of burst, particle and activity size distribution parameters, wind speed, wind direction, topography, and precipitation. We investigate sensitivity over a wide but plausible range of model input parameters. In addition, we investigate a specific example with a relatively narrow range to illustrate the potential for evaluating uncertainties in predictions when there are more precise constraints on model parameters.

Dynamic Parameter Identification of Subject-Specific Body Segment Parameters Using Robotics Formalism: Case Study Head Complex.

PubMed

Díaz-Rodríguez, Miguel; Valera, Angel; Page, Alvaro; Besa, Antonio; Mata, Vicente

2016-05-01

Accurate knowledge of body segment inertia parameters (BSIP) improves the assessment of dynamic analysis based on biomechanical models, which is of paramount importance in fields such as sport activities or impact crash test. Early approaches for BSIP identification rely on the experiments conducted on cadavers or through imaging techniques conducted on living subjects. Recent approaches for BSIP identification rely on inverse dynamic modeling. However, most of the approaches are focused on the entire body, and verification of BSIP for dynamic analysis for distal segment or chain of segments, which has proven to be of significant importance in impact test studies, is rarely established. Previous studies have suggested that BSIP should be obtained by using subject-specific identification techniques. To this end, our paper develops a novel approach for estimating subject-specific BSIP based on static and dynamics identification models (SIM, DIM). We test the validity of SIM and DIM by comparing the results using parameters obtained from a regression model proposed by De Leva (1996, "Adjustments to Zatsiorsky-Seluyanov's Segment Inertia Parameters," J. Biomech., 29(9), pp. 1223-1230). Both SIM and DIM are developed considering robotics formalism. First, the static model allows the mass and center of gravity (COG) to be estimated. Second, the results from the static model are included in the dynamics equation allowing us to estimate the moment of inertia (MOI). As a case study, we applied the approach to evaluate the dynamics modeling of the head complex. Findings provide some insight into the validity not only of the proposed method but also of the application proposed by De Leva (1996, "Adjustments to Zatsiorsky-Seluyanov's Segment Inertia Parameters," J. Biomech., 29(9), pp. 1223-1230) for dynamic modeling of body segments.

Assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, using a calibrated DRASTIC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ndembo Longo, Jean

2017-02-01

This study assessed the vulnerability of groundwater against pollution in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, as a support of a groundwater protection program. The parametric vulnerability model (DRASTIC) was modified and calibrated to predict the intrinsic vulnerability as well as the groundwater pollution risk. The method uses groundwater body specific parameters for the calibration of the factor ratings and weightings of the original DRASTIC model. These groundwater specific parameters are inferred from the statistical relation between the original DRASTIC model and observed nitrate pollution for a specific period. In addition, site-specific land use parameters are integrated into the method. The method is fully embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Following these modifications, the correlation coefficient between groundwater pollution risk and observed nitrate concentrations for the 2013-2014 survey improved from r = 0.42, for the original DRASTIC model, to r = 0.61 for the calibrated model. As a way to validate this pollution risk map, observed nitrate concentrations from another survey (2008) are compared to pollution risk indices showing a good degree of coincidence with r = 0.51. The study shows that a calibration of a vulnerability model is recommended when vulnerability maps are used for groundwater resource management and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

Patient-specific models of cardiac biomechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Adarsh; Villongco, Christopher T.; Chuang, Joyce; Frank, Lawrence R.; Nigam, Vishal; Belezzuoli, Ernest; Stark, Paul; Krummen, David E.; Narayan, Sanjiv; Omens, Jeffrey H.; McCulloch, Andrew D.; Kerckhoffs, Roy C. P.

2013-07-01

Patient-specific models of cardiac function have the potential to improve diagnosis and management of heart disease by integrating medical images with heterogeneous clinical measurements subject to constraints imposed by physical first principles and prior experimental knowledge. We describe new methods for creating three-dimensional patient-specific models of ventricular biomechanics in the failing heart. Three-dimensional bi-ventricular geometry is segmented from cardiac CT images at end-diastole from patients with heart failure. Human myofiber and sheet architecture is modeled using eigenvectors computed from diffusion tensor MR images from an isolated, fixed human organ-donor heart and transformed to the patient-specific geometric model using large deformation diffeomorphic mapping. Semi-automated methods were developed for optimizing the passive material properties while simultaneously computing the unloaded reference geometry of the ventricles for stress analysis. Material properties of active cardiac muscle contraction were optimized to match ventricular pressures measured by cardiac catheterization, and parameters of a lumped-parameter closed-loop model of the circulation were estimated with a circulatory adaptation algorithm making use of information derived from echocardiography. These components were then integrated to create a multi-scale model of the patient-specific heart. These methods were tested in five heart failure patients from the San Diego Veteran's Affairs Medical Center who gave informed consent. The simulation results showed good agreement with measured echocardiographic and global functional parameters such as ejection fraction and peak cavity pressures.

Detection of the toughest: Pedestrian injury risk as a smooth function of age.

PubMed

Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko

2017-07-04

Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents and incorporates age-in addition to collision speed and injury severity-as a plug-in parameter. Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression. The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians. The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found.

The Infobiotics Workbench: an integrated in silico modelling platform for Systems and Synthetic Biology.

PubMed

Blakes, Jonathan; Twycross, Jamie; Romero-Campero, Francisco Jose; Krasnogor, Natalio

2011-12-01

The Infobiotics Workbench is an integrated software suite incorporating model specification, simulation, parameter optimization and model checking for Systems and Synthetic Biology. A modular model specification allows for straightforward creation of large-scale models containing many compartments and reactions. Models are simulated either using stochastic simulation or numerical integration, and visualized in time and space. Model parameters and structure can be optimized with evolutionary algorithms, and model properties calculated using probabilistic model checking. Source code and binaries for Linux, Mac and Windows are available at http://www.infobiotics.org/infobiotics-workbench/; released under the GNU General Public License (GPL) version 3. Natalio.Krasnogor@nottingham.ac.uk.

A monolithic 3D-0D coupled closed-loop model of the heart and the vascular system: Experiment-based parameter estimation for patient-specific cardiac mechanics.

PubMed

Hirschvogel, Marc; Bassilious, Marina; Jagschies, Lasse; Wildhirt, Stephen M; Gee, Michael W

2016-10-15

A model for patient-specific cardiac mechanics simulation is introduced, incorporating a 3-dimensional finite element model of the ventricular part of the heart, which is coupled to a reduced-order 0-dimensional closed-loop vascular system, heart valve, and atrial chamber model. The ventricles are modeled by a nonlinear orthotropic passive material law. The electrical activation is mimicked by a prescribed parameterized active stress acting along a generic muscle fiber orientation. Our activation function is constructed such that the start of ventricular contraction and relaxation as well as the active stress curve's slope are parameterized. The imaging-based patient-specific ventricular model is prestressed to low end-diastolic pressure to account for the imaged, stressed configuration. Visco-elastic Robin boundary conditions are applied to the heart base and the epicardium to account for the embedding surrounding. We treat the 3D solid-0D fluid interaction as a strongly coupled monolithic problem, which is consistently linearized with respect to 3D solid and 0D fluid model variables to allow for a Newton-type solution procedure. The resulting coupled linear system of equations is solved iteratively in every Newton step using 2  ×  2 physics-based block preconditioning. Furthermore, we present novel efficient strategies for calibrating active contractile and vascular resistance parameters to experimental left ventricular pressure and stroke volume data gained in porcine experiments. Two exemplary states of cardiovascular condition are considered, namely, after application of vasodilatory beta blockers (BETA) and after injection of vasoconstrictive phenylephrine (PHEN). The parameter calibration to the specific individual and cardiovascular state at hand is performed using a 2-stage nonlinear multilevel method that uses a low-fidelity heart model to compute a parameter correction for the high-fidelity model optimization problem. We discuss 2 different low-fidelity model choices with respect to their ability to augment the parameter optimization. Because the periodic state conditions on the model (active stress, vascular pressures, and fluxes) are a priori unknown and also dependent on the parameters to be calibrated (and vice versa), we perform parameter calibration and periodic state condition estimation simultaneously. After a couple of heart beats, the calibration algorithm converges to a settled, periodic state because of conservation of blood volume within the closed-loop circulatory system. The proposed model and multilevel calibration method are cost-efficient and allow for an efficient determination of a patient-specific in silico heart model that reproduces physiological observations very well. Such an individual and state accurate model is an important predictive tool in intervention planning, assist device engineering and other medical applications. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Leeds, William B.; Fiechter, Jerome; Wikle, Christopher K.

2011-01-01

We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. PMID:29377899

INDIVIDUALIZED FETAL GROWTH ASSESSMENT: CRITICAL EVALUATION OF KEY CONCEPTS IN THE SPECIFICATION OF THIRD TRIMESTER GROWTH TRAJECTORIES

PubMed Central

Deter, Russell L.; Lee, Wesley; Yeo, Lami; Romero, Roberto

2012-01-01

Objectives To characterize 2nd and 3rd trimester fetal growth using Individualized Growth Assessment in a large cohort of fetuses with normal growth outcomes. Methods A prospective longitudinal study of 119 pregnancies was carried out from 18 weeks, MA, to delivery. Measurements of eleven fetal growth parameters were obtained from 3D scans at 3–4 week intervals. Regression analyses were used to determine Start Points [SP] and Rossavik model [P = c (t) k + st] coefficients c, k and s for each parameter in each fetus. Second trimester growth model specification functions were re-established. These functions were used to generate individual growth models and determine predicted s and s-residual [s = pred s + s-resid] values. Actual measurements were compared to predicted growth trajectories obtained from the growth models and Percent Deviations [% Dev = {{actual − predicted}/predicted} × 100] calculated. Age-specific reference standards for this statistic were defined using 2-level statistical modeling for the nine directly measured parameters and estimated weight. Results Rossavik models fit the data for all parameters very well [R2: 99%], with SP’s and k values similar to those found in a much smaller cohort. The c values were strongly related to the 2nd trimester slope [R2: 97%] as was predicted s to estimated c [R2: 95%]. The latter was negative for skeletal parameters and positive for soft tissue parameters. The s-residuals were unrelated to estimated c’s [R2: 0%], and had mean values of zero. Rossavik models predicted 3rd trimester growth with systematic errors close to 0% and random errors [95% range] of 5.7 – 10.9% and 20.0 – 24.3% for one and three dimensional parameters, respectively. Moderate changes in age-specific variability were seen in the 3rd trimester.. Conclusions IGA procedures for evaluating 2nd and 3rd trimester growth are now established based on a large cohort [4–6 fold larger than those used previously], thus permitting more reliable growth assessment with each fetus acting as its own control. New, more rigorously defined, age-specific standards for the evaluation of 3rd trimester growth deviations are now available for 10 anatomical parameters. Our results are also consistent with the predicted s and s-residual being representatives of growth controllers operating through the insulin-like growth factor [IGF] axis. PMID:23962305

How certain are the process parameterizations in our models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharari, Shervan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Matgen, Patrick; Razavi, Saman; Savenije, Hubert; Gupta, Hoshin; Wheater, Howard

2016-04-01

Environmental models are abstract simplifications of real systems. As a result, the elements of these models, including system architecture (structure), process parameterization and parameters inherit a high level of approximation and simplification. In a conventional model building exercise the parameter values are the only elements of a model which can vary while the rest of the modeling elements are often fixed a priori and therefore not subjected to change. Once chosen the process parametrization and model structure usually remains the same throughout the modeling process. The only flexibility comes from the changing parameter values, thereby enabling these models to reproduce the desired observation. This part of modeling practice, parameter identification and uncertainty, has attracted a significant attention in the literature during the last years. However what remains unexplored in our point of view is to what extent the process parameterization and system architecture (model structure) can support each other. In other words "Does a specific form of process parameterization emerge for a specific model given its system architecture and data while no or little assumption has been made about the process parameterization itself? In this study we relax the assumption regarding a specific pre-determined form for the process parameterizations of a rainfall/runoff model and examine how varying the complexity of the system architecture can lead to different or possibly contradictory parameterization forms than what would have been decided otherwise. This comparison implicitly and explicitly provides us with an assessment of how uncertain is our perception of model process parameterization in respect to the extent the data can support.

Comparative Sensitivity Analysis of Muscle Activation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Günther, Michael; Götz, Thomas

2015-01-01

We mathematically compared two models of mammalian striated muscle activation dynamics proposed by Hatze and Zajac. Both models are representative for a broad variety of biomechanical models formulated as ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These models incorporate parameters that directly represent known physiological properties. Other parameters have been introduced to reproduce empirical observations. We used sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of model parameters on the ODE solutions. In addition, we expanded an existing approach to treating initial conditions as parameters and to calculating second-order sensitivities. Furthermore, we used a global sensitivity analysis approach to include finite ranges of parameter values. Hence, a theoretician striving for model reduction could use the method for identifying particularly low sensitivities to detect superfluous parameters. An experimenter could use it for identifying particularly high sensitivities to improve parameter estimation. Hatze's nonlinear model incorporates some parameters to which activation dynamics is clearly more sensitive than to any parameter in Zajac's linear model. Other than Zajac's model, Hatze's model can, however, reproduce measured shifts in optimal muscle length with varied muscle activity. Accordingly we extracted a specific parameter set for Hatze's model that combines best with a particular muscle force-length relation. PMID:26417379

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling.

PubMed

McLeod, Melissa; Blakely, Tony; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Harris, Ricci

2014-01-01

A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care.

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. Methods We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. Results For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. Conclusions Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care. PMID:24910540

A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial models to date, and provides a comprehensive roadmap for constraining model uncertainties through model development and data collection.

Improving the Fit of a Land-Surface Model to Data Using its Adjoint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raoult, Nina; Jupp, Tim; Cox, Peter; Luke, Catherine

2016-04-01

Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth System Models (ESMs) which are used to make coupled climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed, to search for locally optimum parameter sets by calibrating against observations. We present an introduction to the adJULES system and demonstrate its ability to improve the model-data fit using eddy covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the 5 Plant Functional Types (PFTS) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES over 90% of the FLUXNET sites used in the study. These reductions in error are shown and compared to reductions found due to site-specific optimisations. Finally, we show that calculation of the 2nd derivative of JULES allows us to produce posterior probability density functions of the parameters and how knowledge of parameter values is constrained by observations.

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

PubMed

Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

2012-02-01

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jorgensen, S.

Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

Constraints on a generalized deceleration parameter from cosmic chronometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamon, Abdulla Al

2018-04-01

In this paper, we have proposed a generalized parametrization for the deceleration parameter q in order to study the evolutionary history of the universe. We have shown that the proposed model can reproduce three well known q-parametrized models for some specific values of the model parameter α. We have used the latest compilation of the Hubble parameter measurements obtained from the cosmic chronometer (CC) method (in combination with the local value of the Hubble constant H0) and the Type Ia supernova (SNIa) data to place constraints on the parameters of the model for different values of α. We have found that the resulting constraints on the deceleration parameter and the dark energy equation of state support the ΛCDM model within 1σ confidence level at the present epoch.

Individual tree-diameter growth model for the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Richard M. Teck; Donald E. Hilt

1991-01-01

Describes a distance-independent individual-tree diameter growth model for the Northeastern United States. Diameter growth is predicted in two steps using a two parameter, sigmoidal growth function modified by a one parameter exponential decay function with species-specific coefficients. Coefficients are presented for 28 species groups. The model accounts for...

Comparative Analyses of MIRT Models and Software (BMIRT and flexMIRT)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yavuz, Guler; Hambleton, Ronald K.

2017-01-01

Application of MIRT modeling procedures is dependent on the quality of parameter estimates provided by the estimation software and techniques used. This study investigated model parameter recovery of two popular MIRT packages, BMIRT and flexMIRT, under some common measurement conditions. These packages were specifically selected to investigate the…

High Throughput pharmacokinetic modeling using computationally predicted parameter values: dissociation constants (TDS)

EPA Science Inventory

Estimates of the ionization association and dissociation constant (pKa) are vital to modeling the pharmacokinetic behavior of chemicals in vivo. Methodologies for the prediction of compound sequestration in specific tissues using partition coefficients require a parameter that ch...

Analysis of the sensitivity properties of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague.

PubMed

Buzby, Megan; Neckels, David; Antolin, Michael F; Estep, Donald

2008-09-06

Model sensitivity is a key to evaluation of mathematical models in ecology and evolution, especially in complex models with numerous parameters. In this paper, we use some recently developed methods for sensitivity analysis to study the parameter sensitivity of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague in a rodent population proposed by Keeling & Gilligan. The new sensitivity tools are based on a variational analysis involving the adjoint equation. The new approach provides a relatively inexpensive way to obtain derivative information about model output with respect to parameters. We use this approach to determine the sensitivity of a quantity of interest (the force of infection from rats and their fleas to humans) to various model parameters, determine a region over which linearization at a specific parameter reference point is valid, develop a global picture of the output surface, and search for maxima and minima in a given region in the parameter space.

Theoretical analysis for the specific heat and thermal parameters of solid C60

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto, J. R.; Calles, A.; Castro, J. J.

1997-08-01

We present the results of a theoretical analysis for the thermal parameters and phonon contribution to the specific heat in solid C60. The phonon contribution to the specific heat is calculated through the solution of the corresponding dynamical matrix, for different points in the Brillouin zone, and the construccion of the partial and generalized phonon density of states. The force constants are obtained from a first principle calculation, using a SCF Hartree-Fock wave function from the Gaussian 92 program. The thermal parameters reported are the effective temperatures and vibrational amplitudes as a function of temperature. Using this model we present a parametization scheme in order to reproduce the general behaviour of the experimental specific heat for these materials.

Evaluation of Uncertainty in Constituent Input Parameters for Modeling the Fate of RDX

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

exercise was to evaluate the importance of chemical -specific model input parameters, the impacts of their uncertainty, and the potential benefits of... chemical -specific inputs for RDX that were determined to be sensitive with relatively high uncertainty: these included the soil-water linear...Koc for organic chemicals . The EFS values provided for log Koc of RDX were 1.72 and 1.95. OBJECTIVE: TREECS™ (http://el.erdc.usace.army.mil/treecs

The influence of ligament modelling strategies on the predictive capability of finite element models of the human knee joint.

PubMed

Naghibi Beidokhti, Hamid; Janssen, Dennis; van de Groes, Sebastiaan; Hazrati, Javad; Van den Boogaard, Ton; Verdonschot, Nico

2017-12-08

In finite element (FE) models knee ligaments can represented either by a group of one-dimensional springs, or by three-dimensional continuum elements based on segmentations. Continuum models closer approximate the anatomy, and facilitate ligament wrapping, while spring models are computationally less expensive. The mechanical properties of ligaments can be based on literature, or adjusted specifically for the subject. In the current study we investigated the effect of ligament modelling strategy on the predictive capability of FE models of the human knee joint. The effect of literature-based versus specimen-specific optimized material parameters was evaluated. Experiments were performed on three human cadaver knees, which were modelled in FE models with ligaments represented either using springs, or using continuum representations. In spring representation collateral ligaments were each modelled with three and cruciate ligaments with two single-element bundles. Stiffness parameters and pre-strains were optimized based on laxity tests for both approaches. Validation experiments were conducted to evaluate the outcomes of the FE models. Models (both spring and continuum) with subject-specific properties improved the predicted kinematics and contact outcome parameters. Models incorporating literature-based parameters, and particularly the spring models (with the representations implemented in this study), led to relatively high errors in kinematics and contact pressures. Using a continuum modelling approach resulted in more accurate contact outcome variables than the spring representation with two (cruciate ligaments) and three (collateral ligaments) single-element-bundle representations. However, when the prediction of joint kinematics is of main interest, spring ligament models provide a faster option with acceptable outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated method for the systematic interpretation of resonance peaks in spectrum data

DOEpatents

Damiano, B.; Wood, R.T.

1997-04-22

A method is described for spectral signature interpretation. The method includes the creation of a mathematical model of a system or process. A neural network training set is then developed based upon the mathematical model. The neural network training set is developed by using the mathematical model to generate measurable phenomena of the system or process based upon model input parameter that correspond to the physical condition of the system or process. The neural network training set is then used to adjust internal parameters of a neural network. The physical condition of an actual system or process represented by the mathematical model is then monitored by extracting spectral features from measured spectra of the actual process or system. The spectral features are then input into said neural network to determine the physical condition of the system or process represented by the mathematical model. More specifically, the neural network correlates the spectral features (i.e. measurable phenomena) of the actual process or system with the corresponding model input parameters. The model input parameters relate to specific components of the system or process, and, consequently, correspond to the physical condition of the process or system. 1 fig.

Mixed geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Surakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, H. N.; Saputro, D. R. S.; Susanti, Y.

2017-06-01

MGWR model is combination of linear regression model and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, therefore, MGWR model could produce parameter estimation that had global parameter estimation, and other parameter that had local parameter in accordance with its observation location. The linkage between locations of the observations expressed in specific weighting that is adaptive bi-square. In this research, we applied MGWR model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of DHF in Surakarta based on 10 factors (variables) that is supposed to influence the number of people with DHF. The observation unit in the research is 51 urban villages and the variables are number of inhabitants, number of houses, house index, many public places, number of healthy homes, number of Posyandu, area width, level population density, welfare of the family, and high-region. Based on this research, we obtained 51 MGWR models. The MGWR model were divided into 4 groups with significant variable is house index as a global variable, an area width as a local variable and the remaining variables vary in each. Global variables are variables that significantly affect all locations, while local variables are variables that significantly affect a specific location.

Are Subject-Specific Musculoskeletal Models Robust to the Uncertainties in Parameter Identification?

PubMed Central

Valente, Giordano; Pitto, Lorenzo; Testi, Debora; Seth, Ajay; Delp, Scott L.; Stagni, Rita; Viceconti, Marco; Taddei, Fulvia

2014-01-01

Subject-specific musculoskeletal modeling can be applied to study musculoskeletal disorders, allowing inclusion of personalized anatomy and properties. Independent of the tools used for model creation, there are unavoidable uncertainties associated with parameter identification, whose effect on model predictions is still not fully understood. The aim of the present study was to analyze the sensitivity of subject-specific model predictions (i.e., joint angles, joint moments, muscle and joint contact forces) during walking to the uncertainties in the identification of body landmark positions, maximum muscle tension and musculotendon geometry. To this aim, we created an MRI-based musculoskeletal model of the lower limbs, defined as a 7-segment, 10-degree-of-freedom articulated linkage, actuated by 84 musculotendon units. We then performed a Monte-Carlo probabilistic analysis perturbing model parameters according to their uncertainty, and solving a typical inverse dynamics and static optimization problem using 500 models that included the different sets of perturbed variable values. Model creation and gait simulations were performed by using freely available software that we developed to standardize the process of model creation, integrate with OpenSim and create probabilistic simulations of movement. The uncertainties in input variables had a moderate effect on model predictions, as muscle and joint contact forces showed maximum standard deviation of 0.3 times body-weight and maximum range of 2.1 times body-weight. In addition, the output variables significantly correlated with few input variables (up to 7 out of 312) across the gait cycle, including the geometry definition of larger muscles and the maximum muscle tension in limited gait portions. Although we found subject-specific models not markedly sensitive to parameter identification, researchers should be aware of the model precision in relation to the intended application. In fact, force predictions could be affected by an uncertainty in the same order of magnitude of its value, although this condition has low probability to occur. PMID:25390896

Estimation of Ecosystem Parameters of the Community Land Model with DREAM: Evaluation of the Potential for Upscaling Net Ecosystem Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks Franssen, H. J.; Post, H.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fox, A. M.; Baatz, R.; Kumbhar, P.; Vereecken, H.

2015-12-01

Estimation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by land surface models is strongly affected by uncertain ecosystem parameters and initial conditions. A possible approach is the estimation of plant functional type (PFT) specific parameters for sites with measurement data like NEE and application of the parameters at other sites with the same PFT and no measurements. This upscaling strategy was evaluated in this work for sites in Germany and France. Ecosystem parameters and initial conditions were estimated with NEE-time series of one year length, or a time series of only one season. The DREAM(zs) algorithm was used for the estimation of parameters and initial conditions. DREAM(zs) is not limited to Gaussian distributions and can condition to large time series of measurement data simultaneously. DREAM(zs) was used in combination with the Community Land Model (CLM) v4.5. Parameter estimates were evaluated by model predictions at the same site for an independent verification period. In addition, the parameter estimates were evaluated at other, independent sites situated >500km away with the same PFT. The main conclusions are: i) simulations with estimated parameters reproduced better the NEE measurement data in the verification periods, including the annual NEE-sum (23% improvement), annual NEE-cycle and average diurnal NEE course (error reduction by factor 1,6); ii) estimated parameters based on seasonal NEE-data outperformed estimated parameters based on yearly data; iii) in addition, those seasonal parameters were often also significantly different from their yearly equivalents; iv) estimated parameters were significantly different if initial conditions were estimated together with the parameters. We conclude that estimated PFT-specific parameters improve land surface model predictions significantly at independent verification sites and for independent verification periods so that their potential for upscaling is demonstrated. However, simulation results also indicate that possibly the estimated parameters mask other model errors. This would imply that their application at climatic time scales would not improve model predictions. A central question is whether the integration of many different data streams (e.g., biomass, remotely sensed LAI) could solve the problems indicated here.

Perceptual control models of pursuit manual tracking demonstrate individual specificity and parameter consistency.

PubMed

Parker, Maximilian G; Tyson, Sarah F; Weightman, Andrew P; Abbott, Bruce; Emsley, Richard; Mansell, Warren

2017-11-01

Computational models that simulate individuals' movements in pursuit-tracking tasks have been used to elucidate mechanisms of human motor control. Whilst there is evidence that individuals demonstrate idiosyncratic control-tracking strategies, it remains unclear whether models can be sensitive to these idiosyncrasies. Perceptual control theory (PCT) provides a unique model architecture with an internally set reference value parameter, and can be optimized to fit an individual's tracking behavior. The current study investigated whether PCT models could show temporal stability and individual specificity over time. Twenty adults completed three blocks of 15 1-min, pursuit-tracking trials. Two blocks (training and post-training) were completed in one session and the third was completed after 1 week (follow-up). The target moved in a one-dimensional, pseudorandom pattern. PCT models were optimized to the training data using a least-mean-squares algorithm, and validated with data from post-training and follow-up. We found significant inter-individual variability (partial η 2 : .464-.697) and intra-individual consistency (Cronbach's α: .880-.976) in parameter estimates. Polynomial regression revealed that all model parameters, including the reference value parameter, contribute to simulation accuracy. Participants' tracking performances were significantly more accurately simulated by models developed from their own tracking data than by models developed from other participants' data. We conclude that PCT models can be optimized to simulate the performance of an individual and that the test-retest reliability of individual models is a necessary criterion for evaluating computational models of human performance.

Precision calculations for h → WW/ZZ → 4 fermions in the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model with Prophecy4f

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altenkamp, Lukas; Dittmaier, Stefan; Rzehak, Heidi

2018-03-01

We have calculated the next-to-leading-order electroweak and QCD corrections to the decay processes h → WW/ZZ → 4 fermions of the light CP-even Higgs boson h of various types of Two-Higgs-Doublet Models (Types I and II, "lepton-specific" and "flipped" models). The input parameters are defined in four different renormalization schemes, where parameters that are not directly accessible by experiments are defined in the \\overline{MS} scheme. Numerical results are presented for the corrections to partial decay widths for various benchmark scenarios previously motivated in the literature, where we investigate the dependence on the \\overline{MS} renormalization scale and on the choice of the renormalization scheme in detail. We find that it is crucial to be precise with these issues in parameter analyses, since parameter conversions between different schemes can involve sizeable or large corrections, especially in scenarios that are close to experimental exclusion limits or theoretical bounds. It even turns out that some renormalization schemes are not applicable in specific regions of parameter space. Our investigation of differential distributions shows that corrections beyond the Standard Model are mostly constant offsets induced by the mixing between the light and heavy CP-even Higgs bosons, so that differential analyses of h→4 f decay observables do not help to identify Two-Higgs-Doublet Models. Moreover, the decay widths do not significantly depend on the specific type of those models. The calculations are implemented in the public Monte Carlo generator Prophecy4f and ready for application.

Communications network design and costing model users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logan, K. P.; Somes, S. S.; Clark, C. A.

1983-01-01

The information and procedures needed to exercise the communications network design and costing model for performing network analysis are presented. Specific procedures are included for executing the model on the NASA Lewis Research Center IBM 3033 computer. The concepts, functions, and data bases relating to the model are described. Model parameters and their format specifications for running the model are detailed.

Using Bayesian regression to test hypotheses about relationships between parameters and covariates in cognitive models.

PubMed

Boehm, Udo; Steingroever, Helen; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2018-06-01

An important tool in the advancement of cognitive science are quantitative models that represent different cognitive variables in terms of model parameters. To evaluate such models, their parameters are typically tested for relationships with behavioral and physiological variables that are thought to reflect specific cognitive processes. However, many models do not come equipped with the statistical framework needed to relate model parameters to covariates. Instead, researchers often revert to classifying participants into groups depending on their values on the covariates, and subsequently comparing the estimated model parameters between these groups. Here we develop a comprehensive solution to the covariate problem in the form of a Bayesian regression framework. Our framework can be easily added to existing cognitive models and allows researchers to quantify the evidential support for relationships between covariates and model parameters using Bayes factors. Moreover, we present a simulation study that demonstrates the superiority of the Bayesian regression framework to the conventional classification-based approach.

Probabilistic inference of ecohydrological parameters using observations from point to satellite scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassiouni, Maoya; Higgins, Chad W.; Still, Christopher J.; Good, Stephen P.

2018-06-01

Vegetation controls on soil moisture dynamics are challenging to measure and translate into scale- and site-specific ecohydrological parameters for simple soil water balance models. We hypothesize that empirical probability density functions (pdfs) of relative soil moisture or soil saturation encode sufficient information to determine these ecohydrological parameters. Further, these parameters can be estimated through inverse modeling of the analytical equation for soil saturation pdfs, derived from the commonly used stochastic soil water balance framework. We developed a generalizable Bayesian inference framework to estimate ecohydrological parameters consistent with empirical soil saturation pdfs derived from observations at point, footprint, and satellite scales. We applied the inference method to four sites with different land cover and climate assuming (i) an annual rainfall pattern and (ii) a wet season rainfall pattern with a dry season of negligible rainfall. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of the analytical model's fit to soil observations ranged from 0.89 to 0.99. The coefficient of variation of posterior parameter distributions ranged from < 1 to 15 %. The parameter identifiability was not significantly improved in the more complex seasonal model; however, small differences in parameter values indicate that the annual model may have absorbed dry season dynamics. Parameter estimates were most constrained for scales and locations at which soil water dynamics are more sensitive to the fitted ecohydrological parameters of interest. In these cases, model inversion converged more slowly but ultimately provided better goodness of fit and lower uncertainty. Results were robust using as few as 100 daily observations randomly sampled from the full records, demonstrating the advantage of analyzing soil saturation pdfs instead of time series to estimate ecohydrological parameters from sparse records. Our work combines modeling and empirical approaches in ecohydrology and provides a simple framework to obtain scale- and site-specific analytical descriptions of soil moisture dynamics consistent with soil moisture observations.

Sensitivity of subject-specific models to Hill muscle-tendon model parameters in simulations of gait.

PubMed

Carbone, V; van der Krogt, M M; Koopman, H F J M; Verdonschot, N

2016-06-14

Subject-specific musculoskeletal (MS) models of the lower extremity are essential for applications such as predicting the effects of orthopedic surgery. We performed an extensive sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of potential errors in Hill muscle-tendon (MT) model parameters for each of the 56 MT parts contained in a state-of-the-art MS model. We used two metrics, namely a Local Sensitivity Index (LSI) and an Overall Sensitivity Index (OSI), to distinguish the effect of the perturbation on the predicted force produced by the perturbed MT parts and by all the remaining MT parts, respectively, during a simulated gait cycle. Results indicated that sensitivity of the model depended on the specific role of each MT part during gait, and not merely on its size and length. Tendon slack length was the most sensitive parameter, followed by maximal isometric muscle force and optimal muscle fiber length, while nominal pennation angle showed very low sensitivity. The highest sensitivity values were found for the MT parts that act as prime movers of gait (Soleus: average OSI=5.27%, Rectus Femoris: average OSI=4.47%, Gastrocnemius: average OSI=3.77%, Vastus Lateralis: average OSI=1.36%, Biceps Femoris Caput Longum: average OSI=1.06%) and hip stabilizers (Gluteus Medius: average OSI=3.10%, Obturator Internus: average OSI=1.96%, Gluteus Minimus: average OSI=1.40%, Piriformis: average OSI=0.98%), followed by the Peroneal muscles (average OSI=2.20%) and Tibialis Anterior (average OSI=1.78%) some of which were not included in previous sensitivity studies. Finally, the proposed priority list provides quantitative information to indicate which MT parts and which MT parameters should be estimated most accurately to create detailed and reliable subject-specific MS models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equation-free analysis of agent-based models and systematic parameter determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Spencer A.; Lloyd, David J. B.; Skeldon, Anne C.

2016-12-01

Agent based models (ABM)s are increasingly used in social science, economics, mathematics, biology and computer science to describe time dependent systems in circumstances where a description in terms of equations is difficult. Yet few tools are currently available for the systematic analysis of ABM behaviour. Numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis is a well-established tool for the study of deterministic systems. Recently, equation-free (EF) methods have been developed to extend numerical continuation techniques to systems where the dynamics are described at a microscopic scale and continuation of a macroscopic property of the system is considered. To date, the practical use of EF methods has been limited by; (1) the over-head of application-specific implementation; (2) the laborious configuration of problem-specific parameters; and (3) large ensemble sizes (potentially) leading to computationally restrictive run-times. In this paper we address these issues with our tool for the EF continuation of stochastic systems, which includes algorithms to systematically configuration problem specific parameters and enhance robustness to noise. Our tool is generic and can be applied to any 'black-box' simulator and determines the essential EF parameters prior to EF analysis. Robustness is significantly improved using our convergence-constraint with a corrector-repeat (C3R) method. This algorithm automatically detects outliers based on the dynamics of the underlying system enabling both an order of magnitude reduction in ensemble size and continuation of systems at much higher levels of noise than classical approaches. We demonstrate our method with application to several ABM models, revealing parameter dependence, bifurcation and stability analysis of these complex systems giving a deep understanding of the dynamical behaviour of the models in a way that is not otherwise easily obtainable. In each case we demonstrate our systematic parameter determination stage for configuring the system specific EF parameters.

Automated method for the systematic interpretation of resonance peaks in spectrum data

DOEpatents

Damiano, Brian; Wood, Richard T.

1997-01-01

A method for spectral signature interpretation. The method includes the creation of a mathematical model of a system or process. A neural network training set is then developed based upon the mathematical model. The neural network training set is developed by using the mathematical model to generate measurable phenomena of the system or process based upon model input parameter that correspond to the physical condition of the system or process. The neural network training set is then used to adjust internal parameters of a neural network. The physical condition of an actual system or process represented by the mathematical model is then monitored by extracting spectral features from measured spectra of the actual process or system. The spectral features are then input into said neural network to determine the physical condition of the system or process represented by the mathematical. More specifically, the neural network correlates the spectral features (i.e. measurable phenomena) of the actual process or system with the corresponding model input parameters. The model input parameters relate to specific components of the system or process, and, consequently, correspond to the physical condition of the process or system.

Neither Single nor a Combination of Routine Laboratory Parameters can Discriminate between Gram-positive and Gram-negative Bacteremia

PubMed Central

Ratzinger, Franz; Dedeyan, Michel; Rammerstorfer, Matthias; Perkmann, Thomas; Burgmann, Heinz; Makristathis, Athanasios; Dorffner, Georg; Loetsch, Felix; Blacky, Alexander; Ramharter, Michael

2015-01-01

Adequate early empiric antibiotic therapy is pivotal for the outcome of patients with bloodstream infections. In clinical practice the use of surrogate laboratory parameters is frequently proposed to predict underlying bacterial pathogens; however there is no clear evidence for this assumption. In this study, we investigated the discriminatory capacity of predictive models consisting of routinely available laboratory parameters to predict the presence of Gram-positive or Gram-negative bacteremia. Major machine learning algorithms were screened for their capacity to maximize the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) for discriminating between Gram-positive and Gram-negative cases. Data from 23,765 patients with clinically suspected bacteremia were screened and 1,180 bacteremic patients were included in the study. A relative predominance of Gram-negative bacteremia (54.0%), which was more pronounced in females (59.1%), was observed. The final model achieved 0.675 ROC-AUC resulting in 44.57% sensitivity and 79.75% specificity. Various parameters presented a significant difference between both genders. In gender-specific models, the discriminatory potency was slightly improved. The results of this study do not support the use of surrogate laboratory parameters for predicting classes of causative pathogens. In this patient cohort, gender-specific differences in various laboratory parameters were observed, indicating differences in the host response between genders. PMID:26522966

Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic modelmore » for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.« less

To Use or Not to Use--(The One- or Three-Parameter Logistic Model) That Is the Question.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reckase, Mark D.

Definition of the issues to the use of latent trait models, specifically one- and three-parameter logistic models, in conjunction with multi-level achievement batteries, forms the basis of this paper. Research results related to these issues are also documented in an attempt to provide a rational basis for model selection. The application of the…

Comparing Supply-Side Specifications in Models of Global Agriculture and the Food System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, Sherman; van Meijl, Hans; Willenbockel, Dirk

This paper compares the theoretical specification of production and technical change across the partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two modeling approaches have different theoretical underpinnings concerning the scope of economic activity they capture and how they represent technology and the behavior of supply and demand in markets. This paper focuses on their different specifications of technology and supply behavior, comparing their theoretical and empirical treatments. While the models differ widely in their specifications of technology, both within and between the PEmore » and CGE classes of models, we find that the theoretical responsiveness of supply to changes in prices can be similar, depending on parameter choices that define the behavior of supply functions over the domain of applicability defined by the common scenarios used in the AgMIP comparisons. In particular, we compare the theoretical specification of supply in CGE models with neoclassical production functions and PE models that focus on land and crop yields in agriculture. In practice, however, comparability of results given parameter choices is an empirical question, and the models differ in their sensitivity to variations in specification. To illustrate the issues, sensitivity analysis is done with one global CGE model, MAGNET, to indicate how the results vary with different specification of technical change, and how they compare with the results from PE models.« less

Flight test maneuvers for closed loop lateral-directional modeling of the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV) using forebody strakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, E. A.

1996-01-01

Flight test maneuvers are specified for the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). The maneuvers were designed for closed loop parameter identification purposes, specifically for lateral linear model parameter estimation at 30, 45, and 60 degrees angle of attack, using the Actuated Nose Strakes for Enhanced Rolling (ANSER) control law in Strake (S) model and Strake/Thrust Vectoring (STV) mode. Each maneuver is to be realized by applying square wave inputs to specific pilot station controls using the On-Board Excitation System (OBES). Maneuver descriptions and complete specification of the time/amplitude points defining each input are included, along with plots of the input time histories.

Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

PubMed

Seo, Suyoung

2018-06-01

This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

Sensitivity of land surface modeling to parameters: An uncertainty quantification method applied to the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricciuto, D. M.; Mei, R.; Mao, J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.

2015-12-01

Uncertainties in land parameters could have important impacts on simulated water and energy fluxes and land surface states, which will consequently affect atmospheric and biogeochemical processes. Therefore, quantification of such parameter uncertainties using a land surface model is the first step towards better understanding of predictive uncertainty in Earth system models. In this study, we applied a random-sampling, high-dimensional model representation (RS-HDMR) method to analyze the sensitivity of simulated photosynthesis, surface energy fluxes and surface hydrological components to selected land parameters in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Because of the large computational expense of conducting ensembles of global gridded model simulations, we used the results of a previous cluster analysis to select one thousand representative land grid cells for simulation. Plant functional type (PFT)-specific uniform prior ranges for land parameters were determined using expert opinion and literature survey, and samples were generated with a quasi-Monte Carlo approach-Sobol sequence. Preliminary analysis of 1024 simulations suggested that four PFT-dependent parameters (including slope of the conductance-photosynthesis relationship, specific leaf area at canopy top, leaf C:N ratio and fraction of leaf N in RuBisco) are the dominant sensitive parameters for photosynthesis, surface energy and water fluxes across most PFTs, but with varying importance rankings. On the other hand, for surface ans sub-surface runoff, PFT-independent parameters, such as the depth-dependent decay factors for runoff, play more important roles than the previous four PFT-dependent parameters. Further analysis by conditioning the results on different seasons and years are being conducted to provide guidance on how climate variability and change might affect such sensitivity. This is the first step toward coupled simulations including biogeochemical processes, atmospheric processes or both to determine the full range of sensitivity of Earth system modeling to land-surface parameters. This can facilitate sampling strategies in measurement campaigns targeted at reduction of climate modeling uncertainties and can also provide guidance on land parameter calibration for simulation optimization.

Engineering Inertial and Primary-Frequency Response for Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall-Anese, Emiliano; Zhao, Changhong; Guggilam, Swaroop

We propose a framework to engineer synthetic-inertia and droop-control parameters for distributed energy resources (DERs) so that the system frequency in a network composed of DERs and synchronous generators conforms to prescribed transient and steady-state performance specifications. Our approach is grounded in a second-order lumped-parameter model that captures the dynamics of synchronous generators and frequency-responsive DERs endowed with inertial and droop control. A key feature of this reduced-order model is that its parameters can be related to those of the originating higher-order dynamical model. This allows one to systematically design the DER inertial and droop-control coefficients leveraging classical frequency-domain responsemore » characteristics of second-order systems. Time-domain simulations validate the accuracy of the model-reduction method and demonstrate how DER controllers can be designed to meet steady-state-regulation and transient-performance specifications.« less

Engineering Inertial and Primary-Frequency Response for Distributed Energy Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall-Anese, Emiliano; Zhao, Changhong; Guggilam, Swaroop

We propose a framework to engineer synthetic-inertia and droop-control parameters for distributed energy resources (DERs) so that the system frequency in a network composed of DERs and synchronous generators conforms to prescribed transient and steady-state performance specifications. Our approach is grounded in a second-order lumped-parameter model that captures the dynamics of synchronous generators and frequency-responsive DERs endowed with inertial and droop control. A key feature of this reduced-order model is that its parameters can be related to those of the originating higherorder dynamical model. This allows one to systematically design the DER inertial and droop-control coefficients leveraging classical frequency-domain responsemore » characteristics of second-order systems. Time-domain simulations validate the accuracy of the model-reduction method and demonstrate how DER controllers can be designed to meet steady-state-regulation and transient-performance specifications.« less

Comparison of screening-level and Monte Carlo approaches for wildlife food web exposure modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pastorok, R.; Butcher, M.; LaTier, A.

1995-12-31

The implications of using quantitative uncertainty analysis (e.g., Monte Carlo) and site-specific tissue residue data for wildlife exposure modeling were examined with data on trace elements at the Clark Fork River Superfund Site. Exposure of white-tailed deer, red fox, and American kestrel was evaluated using three approaches. First, a screening-level exposure model was based on conservative estimates of exposure parameters, including estimates of dietary residues derived from bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and soil chemistry. A second model without Monte Carlo was based on site-specific data for tissue residues of trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) in key dietary species andmore » plausible assumptions for habitat spatial segmentation and other exposure parameters. Dietary species sampled included dominant grasses (tufted hairgrass and redtop), willows, alfalfa, barley, invertebrates (grasshoppers, spiders, and beetles), and deer mice. Third, the Monte Carlo analysis was based on the site-specific residue data and assumed or estimated distributions for exposure parameters. Substantial uncertainties are associated with several exposure parameters, especially BCFS, such that exposure and risk may be greatly overestimated in screening-level approaches. The results of the three approaches are compared with respect to realism, practicality, and data gaps. Collection of site-specific data on trace elements concentrations in plants and animals eaten by the target wildlife receptors is a cost-effective way to obtain realistic estimates of exposure. Implications of the results for exposure and risk estimates are discussed relative to use of wildlife exposure modeling and evaluation of remedial actions at Superfund sites.« less

VizieR Online Data Catalog: A catalog of exoplanet physical parameters (Foreman-Mackey+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foreman-Mackey, D.; Hogg, D. W.; Morton, T. D.

2017-05-01

The first ingredient for any probabilistic inference is a likelihood function, a description of the probability of observing a specific data set given a set of model parameters. In this particular project, the data set is a catalog of exoplanet measurements and the model parameters are the values that set the shape and normalization of the occurrence rate density. (2 data files).

A mechanistic modeling and data assimilation framework for Mojave Desert ecohydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Gene-Hua Crystal.; Bedford, David; Miller, David

2014-01-01

This study demonstrates and addresses challenges in coupled ecohydrological modeling in deserts, which arise due to unique plant adaptations, marginal growing conditions, slow net primary production rates, and highly variable rainfall. We consider model uncertainty from both structural and parameter errors and present a mechanistic model for the shrub Larrea tridentata (creosote bush) under conditions found in the Mojave National Preserve in southeastern California (USA). Desert-specific plant and soil features are incorporated into the CLM-CN model by Oleson et al. (2010). We then develop a data assimilation framework using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to estimate model parameters based on soil moisture and leaf-area index observations. A new implementation procedure, the “multisite loop EnKF,” tackles parameter estimation difficulties found to affect desert ecohydrological applications. Specifically, the procedure iterates through data from various observation sites to alleviate adverse filter impacts from non-Gaussianity in small desert vegetation state values. It also readjusts inconsistent parameters and states through a model spin-up step that accounts for longer dynamical time scales due to infrequent rainfall in deserts. Observation error variance inflation may also be needed to help prevent divergence of estimates from true values. Synthetic test results highlight the importance of adequate observations for reducing model uncertainty, which can be achieved through data quality or quantity.

Measuring and modeling the variation in species-specific transpiration in temperate deciduous hardwoods.

PubMed

Bowden, Joseph D; Bauerle, William L

2008-11-01

We investigated which parameters required by the MAESTRA model were most important in predicting leaf-area-based transpiration in 5-year-old trees of five deciduous hardwood species-yoshino cherry (Prunus x yedoensis Matsum.), red maple (Acer rubrum L. 'Autumn Flame'), trident maple (Acer buergeranum Miq.), Japanese flowering cherry (Prunus serrulata Lindl. 'Kwanzan') and London plane-tree (Platanus x acerifolia (Ait.) Willd.). Transpiration estimated from sap flow measured by the heat balance method in branches and trunks was compared with estimates predicted by the three-dimensional transpiration, photosynthesis and absorbed radiation model, MAESTRA. MAESTRA predicted species-specific transpiration from the interactions of leaf-level physiology and spatially explicit micro-scale weather patterns in a mixed deciduous hardwood plantation on a 15-min time step. The monthly differences between modeled mean daily transpiration estimates and measured mean daily sap flow ranged from a 35% underestimation for Acer buergeranum in June to a 25% overestimation for A. rubrum in July. The sensitivity of the modeled transpiration estimates was examined across a 30% error range for seven physiological input parameters. The minimum value of stomatal conductance as incident solar radiation tends to zero was determined to be eight times more influential than all other physiological model input parameters. This work quantified the major factors that influence modeled species-specific transpiration and confirmed the ability to scale leaf-level physiological attributes to whole-crown transpiration on a species-specific basis.

A low-cost three-dimensional laser surface scanning approach for defining body segment parameters.

PubMed

Pandis, Petros; Bull, Anthony Mj

2017-11-01

Body segment parameters are used in many different applications in ergonomics as well as in dynamic modelling of the musculoskeletal system. Body segment parameters can be defined using different methods, including techniques that involve time-consuming manual measurements of the human body, used in conjunction with models or equations. In this study, a scanning technique for measuring subject-specific body segment parameters in an easy, fast, accurate and low-cost way was developed and validated. The scanner can obtain the body segment parameters in a single scanning operation, which takes between 8 and 10 s. The results obtained with the system show a standard deviation of 2.5% in volumetric measurements of the upper limb of a mannequin and 3.1% difference between scanning volume and actual volume. Finally, the maximum mean error for the moment of inertia by scanning a standard-sized homogeneous object was 2.2%. This study shows that a low-cost system can provide quick and accurate subject-specific body segment parameter estimates.

A parallel calibration utility for WRF-Hydro on high performance computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Wang, C.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2017-12-01

A successful modeling of complex hydrological processes comprises establishing an integrated hydrological model which simulates the hydrological processes in each water regime, calibrates and validates the model performance based on observation data, and estimates the uncertainties from different sources especially those associated with parameters. Such a model system requires large computing resources and often have to be run on High Performance Computers (HPC). The recently developed WRF-Hydro modeling system provides a significant advancement in the capability to simulate regional water cycles more completely. The WRF-Hydro model has a large range of parameters such as those in the input table files — GENPARM.TBL, SOILPARM.TBL and CHANPARM.TBL — and several distributed scaling factors such as OVROUGHRTFAC. These parameters affect the behavior and outputs of the model and thus may need to be calibrated against the observations in order to obtain a good modeling performance. Having a parameter calibration tool specifically for automate calibration and uncertainty estimates of WRF-Hydro model can provide significant convenience for the modeling community. In this study, we developed a customized tool using the parallel version of the model-independent parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis tool, PEST, to enabled it to run on HPC with PBS and SLURM workload manager and job scheduler. We also developed a series of PEST input file templates that are specifically for WRF-Hydro model calibration and uncertainty analysis. Here we will present a flood case study occurred in April 2013 over Midwest. The sensitivity and uncertainties are analyzed using the customized PEST tool we developed.

Cognitive models of risky choice: parameter stability and predictive accuracy of prospect theory.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

2012-04-01

In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are individual differences as measured by model parameters stable enough to improve the ability to predict behavior as compared to modeling without adjustable parameters? We examined this issue in cumulative prospect theory (CPT), arguably the most widely used framework to model decisions under risk. Specifically, we examined (a) the temporal stability of CPT's parameters; and (b) how well different implementations of CPT, varying in the number of adjustable parameters, predict individual choice relative to models with no adjustable parameters (such as CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and various heuristics). We presented participants with risky choice problems and fitted CPT to each individual's choices in two separate sessions (which were 1 week apart). All parameters were correlated across time, in particular when using a simple implementation of CPT. CPT allowing for individual variability in parameter values predicted individual choice better than CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and the heuristics. CPT's parameters thus seem to pick up stable individual differences that need to be considered when predicting risky choice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Spatial Correlation Parameters between Full and Model Scale Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Jeremy; Giacomoni, Clothilde

2016-01-01

The current vibro-acoustic analysis tools require specific spatial correlation parameters as input to define the liftoff acoustic environment experienced by the launch vehicle. Until recently these parameters have not been very well defined. A comprehensive set of spatial correlation data were obtained during a scale model acoustic test conducted in 2014. From these spatial correlation data, several parameters were calculated: the decay coefficient, the diffuse to propagating ratio, and the angle of incidence. Spatial correlation data were also collected on the EFT-1 flight of the Delta IV vehicle which launched on December 5th, 2014. A comparison of the spatial correlation parameters from full scale and model scale data will be presented.

Sensitivity of tumor motion simulation accuracy to lung biomechanical modeling approaches and parameters.

PubMed

Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu; Wang, Jing

2015-11-21

Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney-Rivlin material model along left-right, anterior-posterior, and superior-inferior directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation.

Sensitivity of Tumor Motion Simulation Accuracy to Lung Biomechanical Modeling Approaches and Parameters

PubMed Central

Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu

2015-01-01

Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the Neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney-Rivlin material model along left-right (LR), anterior-posterior (AP), and superior-inferior (SI) directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation. PMID:26531324

Effect of processing parameters on surface finish for fused deposition machinable wax patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, F. E., III

1995-01-01

This report presents a study on the effect of material processing parameters used in layer-by-layer material construction on the surface finish of a model to be used as an investment casting pattern. The data presented relate specifically to fused deposition modeling using a machinable wax.

Estimating parametric phenotypes that determine anthesis date in zea mays: Challenges in combining ecophysiological models with genetics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecophysiological crop models encode intra-species behaviors using parameters that are presumed to summarize genotypic properties of individual lines or cultivars. These genotype-specific parameters (GSP’s) can be interpreted as quantitative traits that can be mapped or otherwise analyzed, as are mor...

Biodynamic modelling of the accumulation of Ag, Cd and Zn by the deposit-feeding polychaete Nereis diversicolor: inter-population variability and a generalised predictive model.

PubMed

Kalman, J; Smith, B D; Riba, I; Blasco, J; Rainbow, P S

2010-06-01

Biodynamic parameters of the ragworm Nereis diversicolor from southern Spain and south England were experimentally derived to assess the inter-population variability of physiological parameters of the bioaccumulation of Ag, Cd and Zn from water and sediment. Although there were some limited variations, these were not consistent with the local metal bioavailability nor with temperature changes. Incorporating the biodynamic parameters into a defined biodynamic model, confirmed that sediment is the predominant source of Cd and Zn accumulated by the worms, accounting in each case for 99% of the overall accumulated metals, whereas the contribution of dissolved Ag to the total accumulated by the worm increased from about 27 to about 53% with increasing dissolved Ag concentration. Standardised values of metal-specific parameters were chosen to generate a generalised model to be extended to N. diversicolor populations across a wide geographical range from western Europe to North Africa. According to the assumptions of this model, predicted steady state concentrations of Cd and Zn in N. diversicolor were overestimated, those of Ag underestimated, but still comparable to independent field measurements. We conclude that species-specific physiological metal bioaccumulation parameters are relatively constant over large geographical distances, and a single generalised biodynamic model does have potential to predict accumulated Ag, Cd and Zn concentrations in this polychaete from a single sediment metal concentration.

Quantifying properties of hot and dense QCD matter through systematic model-to-data comparison

DOE PAGES

Bernhard, Jonah E.; Marcy, Peter W.; Coleman-Smith, Christopher E.; ...

2015-05-22

We systematically compare an event-by-event heavy-ion collision model to data from the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Using a general Bayesian method, we probe multiple model parameters including fundamental quark-gluon plasma properties such as the specific shear viscosity η/s, calibrate the model to optimally reproduce experimental data, and extract quantitative constraints for all parameters simultaneously. Furthermore, the method is universal and easily extensible to other data and collision models.

A Computational Model of Active Vision for Visual Search in Human-Computer Interaction

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

processors that interact with the production rules to produce behavior, and (c) parameters that constrain the behavior of the model (e.g., the...velocity of a saccadic eye movement). While the parameters can be task-specific, the majority of the parameters are usually fixed across a wide variety...previously estimated durations. Hooge and Erkelens (1996) review these four explanations of fixation duration control. A variety of research

Quantifying the predictive consequences of model error with linear subspace analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy T.; Doherty, John E.; Hughes, Joseph D.

2014-01-01

All computer models are simplified and imperfect simulators of complex natural systems. The discrepancy arising from simplification induces bias in model predictions, which may be amplified by the process of model calibration. This paper presents a new method to identify and quantify the predictive consequences of calibrating a simplified computer model. The method is based on linear theory, and it scales efficiently to the large numbers of parameters and observations characteristic of groundwater and petroleum reservoir models. The method is applied to a range of predictions made with a synthetic integrated surface-water/groundwater model with thousands of parameters. Several different observation processing strategies and parameterization/regularization approaches are examined in detail, including use of the Karhunen-Loève parameter transformation. Predictive bias arising from model error is shown to be prediction specific and often invisible to the modeler. The amount of calibration-induced bias is influenced by several factors, including how expert knowledge is applied in the design of parameterization schemes, the number of parameters adjusted during calibration, how observations and model-generated counterparts are processed, and the level of fit with observations achieved through calibration. Failure to properly implement any of these factors in a prediction-specific manner may increase the potential for predictive bias in ways that are not visible to the calibration and uncertainty analysis process.

The structural identifiability and parameter estimation of a multispecies model for the transmission of mastitis in dairy cows with postmilking teat disinfection.

PubMed

White, L J; Evans, N D; Lam, T J G M; Schukken, Y H; Medley, G F; Godfrey, K R; Chappell, M J

2002-01-01

A mathematical model for the transmission of two interacting classes of mastitis causing bacterial pathogens in a herd of dairy cows is presented and applied to a specific data set. The data were derived from a field trial of a specific measure used in the control of these pathogens, where half the individuals were subjected to the control and in the others the treatment was discontinued. The resultant mathematical model (eight non-linear simultaneous ordinary differential equations) therefore incorporates heterogeneity in the host as well as the infectious agent and consequently the effects of control are intrinsic in the model structure. A structural identifiability analysis of the model is presented demonstrating that the scope of the novel method used allows application to high order non-linear systems. The results of a simultaneous estimation of six unknown system parameters are presented. Previous work has only estimated a subset of these either simultaneously or individually. Therefore not only are new estimates provided for the parameters relating to the transmission and control of the classes of pathogens under study, but also information about the relationships between them. We exploit the close link between mathematical modelling, structural identifiability analysis, and parameter estimation to obtain biological insights into the system modelled.

A three-dimensional virtual environment for modeling mechanical cardiopulmonary interactions.

PubMed

Kaye, J M; Primiano, F P; Metaxas, D N

1998-06-01

We have developed a real-time computer system for modeling mechanical physiological behavior in an interactive, 3-D virtual environment. Such an environment can be used to facilitate exploration of cardiopulmonary physiology, particularly in situations that are difficult to reproduce clinically. We integrate 3-D deformable body dynamics with new, formal models of (scalar) cardiorespiratory physiology, associating the scalar physiological variables and parameters with the corresponding 3-D anatomy. Our framework enables us to drive a high-dimensional system (the 3-D anatomical models) from one with fewer parameters (the scalar physiological models) because of the nature of the domain and our intended application. Our approach is amenable to modeling patient-specific circumstances in two ways. First, using CT scan data, we apply semi-automatic methods for extracting and reconstructing the anatomy to use in our simulations. Second, our scalar physiological models are defined in terms of clinically measurable, patient-specific parameters. This paper describes our approach, problems we have encountered and a sample of results showing normal breathing and acute effects of pneumothoraces.

Energy conditions in f (T, TG) gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jawad, Abdul

2015-05-01

This paper is devoted to study the energy conditions in f( T, T G ) gravity for the FRW universe with perfect fluid, where T is the torsion scalar and T G is the quartic torsion scalar. We construct the energy conditions in this theory and discuss them for two specific f( T, T G ) models. These models are and , which represent viability through some cosmological scenarios. We consider cosmographic parameters to simplify the energy condition expressions. The present-day values of these parameters are assumed to check the constraints on model parameters through energy condition inequalities.

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

A Parameter Subset Selection Algorithm for Mixed-Effects Models

DOE PAGES

Schmidt, Kathleen L.; Smith, Ralph C.

2016-01-01

Mixed-effects models are commonly used to statistically model phenomena that include attributes associated with a population or general underlying mechanism as well as effects specific to individuals or components of the general mechanism. This can include individual effects associated with data from multiple experiments. However, the parameterizations used to incorporate the population and individual effects are often unidentifiable in the sense that parameters are not uniquely specified by the data. As a result, the current literature focuses on model selection, by which insensitive parameters are fixed or removed from the model. Model selection methods that employ information criteria are applicablemore » to both linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models, but such techniques are limited in that they are computationally prohibitive for large problems due to the number of possible models that must be tested. To limit the scope of possible models for model selection via information criteria, we introduce a parameter subset selection (PSS) algorithm for mixed-effects models, which orders the parameters by their significance. In conclusion, we provide examples to verify the effectiveness of the PSS algorithm and to test the performance of mixed-effects model selection that makes use of parameter subset selection.« less

A model for the relative biological effectiveness of protons: the tissue specific parameter α/β of photons is a predictor for the sensitivity to LET changes.

PubMed

Wedenberg, Minna; Lind, Bengt K; Hårdemark, Björn

2013-04-01

The biological effects of particles are often expressed in relation to that of photons through the concept of relative biological effectiveness, RBE. In proton radiotherapy, a constant RBE of 1.1 is usually assumed. However, there is experimental evidence that RBE depends on various factors. The aim of this study is to develop a model to predict the RBE based on linear energy transfer (LET), dose, and the tissue specific parameter α/β of the linear-quadratic model for the reference radiation. Moreover, the model should capture the basic features of the RBE using a minimum of assumptions, each supported by experimental data. The α and β parameters for protons were studied with respect to their dependence on LET. An RBE model was proposed where the dependence of LET is affected by the (α/β)phot ratio of photons. Published cell survival data with a range of well-defined LETs and cell types were selected for model evaluation rendering a total of 10 cell lines and 24 RBE values. A statistically significant relation was found between α for protons and LET. Moreover, the strength of that relation varied significantly with (α/β)phot. In contrast, no significant relation between β and LET was found. On the whole, the resulting RBE model provided a significantly improved fit (p-value < 0.01) to the experimental data compared to the standard constant RBE. By accounting for the α/β ratio of photons, clearer trends between RBE and LET of protons were found, and our results suggest that late responding tissues are more sensitive to LET changes than early responding tissues and most tumors. An advantage with the proposed RBE model in optimization and evaluation of treatment plans is that it only requires dose, LET, and (α/β)phot as input parameters. Hence, no proton specific biological parameters are needed.

Bayesian inversions of a dynamic vegetation model in four European grassland sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minet, J.; Laloy, E.; Tychon, B.; François, L.

2015-01-01

Eddy covariance data from four European grassland sites are used to probabilistically invert the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with ten unknown parameters, using the DREAM(ZS) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. We compare model inversions considering both homoscedastic and heteroscedastic eddy covariance residual errors, with variances either fixed a~priori or jointly inferred with the model parameters. Agreements between measured and simulated data during calibration are comparable with previous studies, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) of simulated daily gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RECO) and evapotranspiration (ET) ranging from 1.73 to 2.19 g C m-2 day-1, 1.04 to 1.56 g C m-2 day-1, and 0.50 to 1.28 mm day-1, respectively. In validation, mismatches between measured and simulated data are larger, but still with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency scores above 0.5 for three out of the four sites. Although measurement errors associated with eddy covariance data are known to be heteroscedastic, we showed that assuming a classical linear heteroscedastic model of the residual errors in the inversion do not fully remove heteroscedasticity. Since the employed heteroscedastic error model allows for larger deviations between simulated and measured data as the magnitude of the measured data increases, this error model expectedly lead to poorer data fitting compared to inversions considering a constant variance of the residual errors. Furthermore, sampling the residual error variances along with model parameters results in overall similar model parameter posterior distributions as those obtained by fixing these variances beforehand, while slightly improving model performance. Despite the fact that the calibrated model is generally capable of fitting the data within measurement errors, systematic bias in the model simulations are observed. These are likely due to model inadequacies such as shortcomings in the photosynthesis modelling. Besides model behaviour, difference between model parameter posterior distributions among the four grassland sites are also investigated. It is shown that the marginal distributions of the specific leaf area and characteristic mortality time parameters can be explained by site-specific ecophysiological characteristics. Lastly, the possibility of finding a common set of parameters among the four experimental sites is discussed.

Individual differences in emotion processing: how similar are diffusion model parameters across tasks?

PubMed

Mueller, Christina J; White, Corey N; Kuchinke, Lars

2017-11-27

The goal of this study was to replicate findings of diffusion model parameters capturing emotion effects in a lexical decision task and investigating whether these findings extend to other tasks of implicit emotion processing. Additionally, we were interested in the stability of diffusion model parameters across emotional stimuli and tasks for individual subjects. Responses to words in a lexical decision task were compared with responses to faces in a gender categorization task for stimuli of the emotion categories: happy, neutral and fear. Main effects of emotion as well as stability of emerging response style patterns as evident in diffusion model parameters across these tasks were analyzed. Based on earlier findings, drift rates were assumed to be more similar in response to stimuli of the same emotion category compared to stimuli of a different emotion category. Results showed that emotion effects of the tasks differed with a processing advantage for happy followed by neutral and fear-related words in the lexical decision task and a processing advantage for neutral followed by happy and fearful faces in the gender categorization task. Both emotion effects were captured in estimated drift rate parameters-and in case of the lexical decision task also in the non-decision time parameters. A principal component analysis showed that contrary to our hypothesis drift rates were more similar within a specific task context than within a specific emotion category. Individual response patterns of subjects across tasks were evident in significant correlations regarding diffusion model parameters including response styles, non-decision times and information accumulation.

Sensitivity of predicted bioaerosol exposure from open windrow composting facilities to ADMS dispersion model parameters.

PubMed

Douglas, P; Tyrrel, S F; Kinnersley, R P; Whelan, M; Longhurst, P J; Walsh, K; Pollard, S J T; Drew, G H

2016-12-15

Bioaerosols are released in elevated quantities from composting facilities and are associated with negative health effects, although dose-response relationships are not well understood, and require improved exposure classification. Dispersion modelling has great potential to improve exposure classification, but has not yet been extensively used or validated in this context. We present a sensitivity analysis of the ADMS dispersion model specific to input parameter ranges relevant to bioaerosol emissions from open windrow composting. This analysis provides an aid for model calibration by prioritising parameter adjustment and targeting independent parameter estimation. Results showed that predicted exposure was most sensitive to the wet and dry deposition modules and the majority of parameters relating to emission source characteristics, including pollutant emission velocity, source geometry and source height. This research improves understanding of the accuracy of model input data required to provide more reliable exposure predictions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Rational selection of experimental readout and intervention sites for reducing uncertainties in computational model predictions.

PubMed

Flassig, Robert J; Migal, Iryna; der Zalm, Esther van; Rihko-Struckmann, Liisa; Sundmacher, Kai

2015-01-16

Understanding the dynamics of biological processes can substantially be supported by computational models in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). Typically, this model class contains many unknown parameters, which are estimated from inadequate and noisy data. Depending on the ODE structure, predictions based on unmeasured states and associated parameters are highly uncertain, even undetermined. For given data, profile likelihood analysis has been proven to be one of the most practically relevant approaches for analyzing the identifiability of an ODE structure, and thus model predictions. In case of highly uncertain or non-identifiable parameters, rational experimental design based on various approaches has shown to significantly reduce parameter uncertainties with minimal amount of effort. In this work we illustrate how to use profile likelihood samples for quantifying the individual contribution of parameter uncertainty to prediction uncertainty. For the uncertainty quantification we introduce the profile likelihood sensitivity (PLS) index. Additionally, for the case of several uncertain parameters, we introduce the PLS entropy to quantify individual contributions to the overall prediction uncertainty. We show how to use these two criteria as an experimental design objective for selecting new, informative readouts in combination with intervention site identification. The characteristics of the proposed multi-criterion objective are illustrated with an in silico example. We further illustrate how an existing practically non-identifiable model for the chlorophyll fluorescence induction in a photosynthetic organism, D. salina, can be rendered identifiable by additional experiments with new readouts. Having data and profile likelihood samples at hand, the here proposed uncertainty quantification based on prediction samples from the profile likelihood provides a simple way for determining individual contributions of parameter uncertainties to uncertainties in model predictions. The uncertainty quantification of specific model predictions allows identifying regions, where model predictions have to be considered with care. Such uncertain regions can be used for a rational experimental design to render initially highly uncertain model predictions into certainty. Finally, our uncertainty quantification directly accounts for parameter interdependencies and parameter sensitivities of the specific prediction.

The impact of personalized probabilistic wall thickness models on peak wall stress in abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Biehler, J; Wall, W A

2018-02-01

If computational models are ever to be used in high-stakes decision making in clinical practice, the use of personalized models and predictive simulation techniques is a must. This entails rigorous quantification of uncertainties as well as harnessing available patient-specific data to the greatest extent possible. Although researchers are beginning to realize that taking uncertainty in model input parameters into account is a necessity, the predominantly used probabilistic description for these uncertain parameters is based on elementary random variable models. In this work, we set out for a comparison of different probabilistic models for uncertain input parameters using the example of an uncertain wall thickness in finite element models of abdominal aortic aneurysms. We provide the first comparison between a random variable and a random field model for the aortic wall and investigate the impact on the probability distribution of the computed peak wall stress. Moreover, we show that the uncertainty about the prevailing peak wall stress can be reduced if noninvasively available, patient-specific data are harnessed for the construction of the probabilistic wall thickness model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the Relative Relevance of Subject-Specific Geometries and Degeneration-Specific Mechanical Properties for the Study of Cell Death in Human Intervertebral Disk Models

PubMed Central

Malandrino, Andrea; Pozo, José M.; Castro-Mateos, Isaac; Frangi, Alejandro F.; van Rijsbergen, Marc M.; Ito, Keita; Wilke, Hans-Joachim; Dao, Tien Tuan; Ho Ba Tho, Marie-Christine; Noailly, Jérôme

2015-01-01

Capturing patient- or condition-specific intervertebral disk (IVD) properties in finite element models is outmost important in order to explore how biomechanical and biophysical processes may interact in spine diseases. However, disk degenerative changes are often modeled through equations similar to those employed for healthy organs, which might not be valid. As for the simulated effects of degenerative changes, they likely depend on specific disk geometries. Accordingly, we explored the ability of continuum tissue models to simulate disk degenerative changes. We further used the results in order to assess the interplay between these simulated changes and particular IVD morphologies, in relation to disk cell nutrition, a potentially important factor in disk tissue regulation. A protocol to derive patient-specific computational models from clinical images was applied to different spine specimens. In vitro, IVD creep tests were used to optimize poro-hyperelastic input material parameters in these models, in function of the IVD degeneration grade. The use of condition-specific tissue model parameters in the specimen-specific geometrical models was validated against independent kinematic measurements in vitro. Then, models were coupled to a transport-cell viability model in order to assess the respective effects of tissue degeneration and disk geometry on cell viability. While classic disk poro-mechanical models failed in representing known degenerative changes, additional simulation of tissue damage allowed model validation and gave degeneration-dependent material properties related to osmotic pressure and water loss, and to increased fibrosis. Surprisingly, nutrition-induced cell death was independent of the grade-dependent material properties, but was favored by increased diffusion distances in large IVDs. Our results suggest that in situ geometrical screening of IVD morphology might help to anticipate particular mechanisms of disk degeneration. PMID:25717471

Soil erosion model predictions using parent material/soil texture-based parameters compared to using site-specific parameters

Treesearch

R. B. Foltz; W. J. Elliot; N. S. Wagenbrenner

2011-01-01

Forested areas disturbed by access roads produce large amounts of sediment. One method to predict erosion and, hence, manage forest roads is the use of physically based soil erosion models. A perceived advantage of a physically based model is that it can be parameterized at one location and applied at another location with similar soil texture or geological parent...

The J3 SCR model applied to resonant converter simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avant, R. L.; Lee, F. C. Y.

1985-01-01

The J3 SCR model is a continuous topology computer model for the SCR. Its circuit analog and parameter estimation procedure are uniformly applicable to popular computer-aided design and analysis programs such as SPICE2 and SCEPTRE. The circuit analog is based on the intrinsic three pn junction structure of the SCR. The parameter estimation procedure requires only manufacturer's specification sheet quantities as a data base.

Ab initio-informed maximum entropy modeling of rovibrational relaxation and state-specific dissociation with application to the O2 + O system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulakhmetov, Marat; Gallis, Michael; Alexeenko, Alina

2016-05-01

Quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations are used to study state-specific ro-vibrational energy exchange and dissociation in the O2 + O system. Atom-diatom collisions with energy between 0.1 and 20 eV are calculated with a double many body expansion potential energy surface by Varandas and Pais [Mol. Phys. 65, 843 (1988)]. Inelastic collisions favor mono-quantum vibrational transitions at translational energies above 1.3 eV although multi-quantum transitions are also important. Post-collision vibrational favoring decreases first exponentially and then linearly as Δv increases. Vibrationally elastic collisions (Δv = 0) favor small ΔJ transitions while vibrationally inelastic collisions have equilibrium post-collision rotational distributions. Dissociation exhibits both vibrational and rotational favoring. New vibrational-translational (VT), vibrational-rotational-translational (VRT) energy exchange, and dissociation models are developed based on QCT observations and maximum entropy considerations. Full set of parameters for state-to-state modeling of oxygen is presented. The VT energy exchange model describes 22 000 state-to-state vibrational cross sections using 11 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 30% in the 2500-20 000 K temperature range. The VRT model captures 80 × 106 state-to-state ro-vibrational cross sections using 19 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 60% in the 5000-15 000 K temperature range. The developed dissociation model reproduces state-specific and equilibrium dissociation rates within 25% using just 48 parameters. The maximum entropy framework makes it feasible to upscale ab initio simulation to full nonequilibrium flow calculations.

A semi-empirical model relating micro structure to acoustic properties of bimodal porous material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosanenzadeh, Shahrzad Ghaffari; Doutres, Olivier; Naguib, Hani E.; Park, Chul B.; Atalla, Noureddine

2015-01-01

Complex morphology of open cell porous media makes it difficult to link microstructural parameters and acoustic behavior of these materials. While morphology determines the overall sound absorption and noise damping effectiveness of a porous structure, little is known on the influence of microstructural configuration on the macroscopic properties. In the present research, a novel bimodal porous structure was designed and developed solely for modeling purposes. For the developed porous structure, it is possible to have direct control on morphological parameters and avoid complications raised by intricate pore geometries. A semi-empirical model is developed to relate microstructural parameters to macroscopic characteristics of porous material using precise characterization results based on the designed bimodal porous structures. This model specifically links macroscopic parameters including static airflow resistivity ( σ ) , thermal characteristic length ( Λ ' ) , viscous characteristic length ( Λ ) , and dynamic tortuosity ( α ∞ ) to microstructural factors such as cell wall thickness ( 2 t ) and reticulation rate ( R w ) . The developed model makes it possible to design the morphology of porous media to achieve optimum sound absorption performance based on the application in hand. This study makes the base for understanding the role of microstructural geometry and morphological factors on the overall macroscopic parameters of porous materials specifically for acoustic capabilities. The next step is to include other microstructural parameters as well to generalize the developed model. In the present paper, pore size was kept constant for eight categories of bimodal foams to study the effect of secondary porous structure on macroscopic properties and overall acoustic behavior of porous media.

Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Dhingra, Radhika; Gambhir, Manoj; Remais, Justin V.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis (SA) can aid in identifying influential model parameters and optimizing model structure, yet infectious disease modelling has yet to adopt advanced SA techniques that are capable of providing considerable insights over traditional methods. We investigate five global SA methods—scatter plots, the Morris and Sobol’ methods, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient and the sensitivity heat map method—and detail their relative merits and pitfalls when applied to a microparasite (cholera) and macroparasite (schistosomaisis) transmission model. The methods investigated yielded similar results with respect to identifying influential parameters, but offered specific insights that vary by method. The classical methods differed in their ability to provide information on the quantitative relationship between parameters and model output, particularly over time. The heat map approach provides information about the group sensitivity of all model state variables, and the parameter sensitivity spectrum obtained using this method reveals the sensitivity of all state variables to each parameter over the course of the simulation period, especially valuable for expressing the dynamic sensitivity of a microparasite epidemic model to its parameters. A summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design. PMID:23864497

Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking.

PubMed

Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

2016-01-01

We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults' belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking.

An imaging-based computational model for simulating angiogenesis and tumour oxygenation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikarla, Vikram; Jeraj, Robert

2016-05-01

Tumour growth, angiogenesis and oxygenation vary substantially among tumours and significantly impact their treatment outcome. Imaging provides a unique means of investigating these tumour-specific characteristics. Here we propose a computational model to simulate tumour-specific oxygenation changes based on the molecular imaging data. Tumour oxygenation in the model is reflected by the perfused vessel density. Tumour growth depends on its doubling time (T d) and the imaged proliferation. Perfused vessel density recruitment rate depends on the perfused vessel density around the tumour (sMVDtissue) and the maximum VEGF concentration for complete vessel dysfunctionality (VEGFmax). The model parameters were benchmarked to reproduce the dynamics of tumour oxygenation over its entire lifecycle, which is the most challenging test. Tumour oxygenation dynamics were quantified using the peak pO2 (pO2peak) and the time to peak pO2 (t peak). Sensitivity of tumour oxygenation to model parameters was assessed by changing each parameter by 20%. t peak was found to be more sensitive to tumour cell line related doubling time (~30%) as compared to tissue vasculature density (~10%). On the other hand, pO2peak was found to be similarly influenced by the above tumour- and vasculature-associated parameters (~30-40%). Interestingly, both pO2peak and t peak were only marginally affected by VEGFmax (~5%). The development of a poorly oxygenated (hypoxic) core with tumour growth increased VEGF accumulation, thus disrupting the vessel perfusion as well as further increasing hypoxia with time. The model with its benchmarked parameters, is applied to hypoxia imaging data obtained using a [64Cu]Cu-ATSM PET scan of a mouse tumour and the temporal development of the vasculature and hypoxia maps are shown. The work underscores the importance of using tumour-specific input for analysing tumour evolution. An extended model incorporating therapeutic effects can serve as a powerful tool for analysing tumour response to anti-angiogenic therapies.

Bridging the gap between measurements and modelling: a cardiovascular functional avatar.

PubMed

Casas, Belén; Lantz, Jonas; Viola, Federica; Cedersund, Gunnar; Bolger, Ann F; Carlhäll, Carl-Johan; Karlsson, Matts; Ebbers, Tino

2017-07-24

Lumped parameter models of the cardiovascular system have the potential to assist researchers and clinicians to better understand cardiovascular function. The value of such models increases when they are subject specific. However, most approaches to personalize lumped parameter models have thus far required invasive measurements or fall short of being subject specific due to a lack of the necessary clinical data. Here, we propose an approach to personalize parameters in a model of the heart and the systemic circulation using exclusively non-invasive measurements. The personalized model is created using flow data from four-dimensional magnetic resonance imaging and cuff pressure measurements in the brachial artery. We term this personalized model the cardiovascular avatar. In our proof-of-concept study, we evaluated the capability of the avatar to reproduce pressures and flows in a group of eight healthy subjects. Both quantitatively and qualitatively, the model-based results agreed well with the pressure and flow measurements obtained in vivo for each subject. This non-invasive and personalized approach can synthesize medical data into clinically relevant indicators of cardiovascular function, and estimate hemodynamic variables that cannot be assessed directly from clinical measurements.

Perceptual Calibration for Immersive Display Environments

PubMed Central

Ponto, Kevin; Gleicher, Michael; Radwin, Robert G.; Shin, Hyun Joon

2013-01-01

The perception of objects, depth, and distance has been repeatedly shown to be divergent between virtual and physical environments. We hypothesize that many of these discrepancies stem from incorrect geometric viewing parameters, specifically that physical measurements of eye position are insufficiently precise to provide proper viewing parameters. In this paper, we introduce a perceptual calibration procedure derived from geometric models. While most research has used geometric models to predict perceptual errors, we instead use these models inversely to determine perceptually correct viewing parameters. We study the advantages of these new psychophysically determined viewing parameters compared to the commonly used measured viewing parameters in an experiment with 20 subjects. The perceptually calibrated viewing parameters for the subjects generally produced new virtual eye positions that were wider and deeper than standard practices would estimate. Our study shows that perceptually calibrated viewing parameters can significantly improve depth acuity, distance estimation, and the perception of shape. PMID:23428454

A Novel Computer-Aided Approach for Parametric Investigation of Custom Design of Fracture Fixation Plates.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaozhong; He, Kunjin; Chen, Zhengming

2017-01-01

The present study proposes an integrated computer-aided approach combining femur surface modeling, fracture evidence recover plate creation, and plate modification in order to conduct a parametric investigation of the design of custom plate for a specific patient. The study allows for improving the design efficiency of specific plates on the patients' femur parameters and the fracture information. Furthermore, the present approach will lead to exploration of plate modification and optimization. The three-dimensional (3D) surface model of a detailed femur and the corresponding fixation plate were represented with high-level feature parameters, and the shape of the specific plate was recursively modified in order to obtain the optimal plate for a specific patient. The proposed approach was tested and verified on a case study, and it could be helpful for orthopedic surgeons to design and modify the plate in order to fit the specific femur anatomy and the fracture information.

Predicting distant failure in early stage NSCLC treated with SBRT using clinical parameters.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhiguo; Folkert, Michael; Cannon, Nathan; Iyengar, Puneeth; Westover, Kenneth; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Choy, Hak; Timmerman, Robert; Yan, Jingsheng; Xie, Xian-J; Jiang, Steve; Wang, Jing

2016-06-01

The aim of this study is to predict early distant failure in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) using clinical parameters by machine learning algorithms. The dataset used in this work includes 81 early stage NSCLC patients with at least 6months of follow-up who underwent SBRT between 2006 and 2012 at a single institution. The clinical parameters (n=18) for each patient include demographic parameters, tumor characteristics, treatment fraction schemes, and pretreatment medications. Three predictive models were constructed based on different machine learning algorithms: (1) artificial neural network (ANN), (2) logistic regression (LR) and (3) support vector machine (SVM). Furthermore, to select an optimal clinical parameter set for the model construction, three strategies were adopted: (1) clonal selection algorithm (CSA) based selection strategy; (2) sequential forward selection (SFS) method; and (3) statistical analysis (SA) based strategy. 5-cross-validation is used to validate the performance of each predictive model. The accuracy was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of the system was also evaluated. The AUCs for ANN, LR and SVM were 0.75, 0.73, and 0.80, respectively. The sensitivity values for ANN, LR and SVM were 71.2%, 72.9% and 83.1%, while the specificity values for ANN, LR and SVM were 59.1%, 63.6% and 63.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the CSA based strategy outperformed SFS and SA in terms of AUC, sensitivity and specificity. Based on clinical parameters, the SVM with the CSA optimal parameter set selection strategy achieves better performance than other strategies for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Snehamoy

2014-01-01

This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

From design to manufacturing of asymmetric teeth gears using computer application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suciu, F.; Dascalescu, A.; Ungureanu, M.

2017-05-01

The asymmetric cylindrical gears, with involutes teeth profiles having different base circle diameters, are nonstandard gears, used with the aim to obtain better function parameters for the active profile. We will expect that the manufacturing of these gears became possible only after the design and realization of some specific tools. The paper present how the computer aided design and applications developed in MATLAB, for obtain the geometrical parameters, in the same time for calculation some functional parameters like stress and displacements, transmission error, efficiency of the gears and the 2D models, generated with AUTOLISP applications, are used for computer aided manufacturing of asymmetric gears with standard tools. So the specific tools considered one of the disadvantages of these gears are not necessary and implicitly the expected supplementary costs are reduced. The calculus algorithm established for the asymmetric gear design application use the „direct design“ of the spur gears. This method offers the possibility of determining first the parameters of the gears, followed by the determination of the asymmetric gear rack’s parameters, based on those of the gears. Using original design method and computer applications have been determined the geometrical parameters, the 2D and 3D models of the asymmetric gears and on the base of these models have been manufacturing on CNC machine tool asymmetric gears.

Support Vector Machine Based Monitoring of Cardio-Cerebrovascular Reserve during Simulated Hemorrhage.

PubMed

van der Ster, Björn J P; Bennis, Frank C; Delhaas, Tammo; Westerhof, Berend E; Stok, Wim J; van Lieshout, Johannes J

2017-01-01

Introduction: In the initial phase of hypovolemic shock, mean blood pressure (BP) is maintained by sympathetically mediated vasoconstriction rendering BP monitoring insensitive to detect blood loss early. Late detection can result in reduced tissue oxygenation and eventually cellular death. We hypothesized that a machine learning algorithm that interprets currently used and new hemodynamic parameters could facilitate in the detection of impending hypovolemic shock. Method: In 42 (27 female) young [mean (sd): 24 (4) years], healthy subjects central blood volume (CBV) was progressively reduced by application of -50 mmHg lower body negative pressure until the onset of pre-syncope. A support vector machine was trained to classify samples into normovolemia (class 0), initial phase of CBV reduction (class 1) or advanced CBV reduction (class 2). Nine models making use of different features were computed to compare sensitivity and specificity of different non-invasive hemodynamic derived signals. Model features included : volumetric hemodynamic parameters (stroke volume and cardiac output), BP curve dynamics, near-infrared spectroscopy determined cortical brain oxygenation, end-tidal carbon dioxide pressure, thoracic bio-impedance, and middle cerebral artery transcranial Doppler (TCD) blood flow velocity. Model performance was tested by quantifying the predictions with three methods : sensitivity and specificity, absolute error, and quantification of the log odds ratio of class 2 vs. class 0 probability estimates. Results: The combination with maximal sensitivity and specificity for classes 1 and 2 was found for the model comprising volumetric features (class 1: 0.73-0.98 and class 2: 0.56-0.96). Overall lowest model error was found for the models comprising TCD curve hemodynamics. Using probability estimates the best combination of sensitivity for class 1 (0.67) and specificity (0.87) was found for the model that contained the TCD cerebral blood flow velocity derived pulse height. The highest combination for class 2 was found for the model with the volumetric features (0.72 and 0.91). Conclusion: The most sensitive models for the detection of advanced CBV reduction comprised data that describe features from volumetric parameters and from cerebral blood flow velocity hemodynamics. In a validated model of hemorrhage in humans these parameters provide the best indication of the progression of central hypovolemia.

Sensitivity of ecological soil-screening levels for metals to exposure model parameterization and toxicity reference values.

PubMed

Sample, Bradley E; Fairbrother, Anne; Kaiser, Ashley; Law, Sheryl; Adams, Bill

2014-10-01

Ecological soil-screening levels (Eco-SSLs) were developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for the purposes of setting conservative soil screening values that can be used to eliminate the need for further ecological assessment for specific analytes at a given site. Ecological soil-screening levels for wildlife represent a simplified dietary exposure model solved in terms of soil concentrations to produce exposure equal to a no-observed-adverse-effect toxicity reference value (TRV). Sensitivity analyses were performed for 6 avian and mammalian model species, and 16 metals/metalloids for which Eco-SSLs have been developed. The relative influence of model parameters was expressed as the absolute value of the range of variation observed in the resulting soil concentration when exposure is equal to the TRV. Rank analysis of variance was used to identify parameters with greatest influence on model output. For both birds and mammals, soil ingestion displayed the broadest overall range (variability), although TRVs consistently had the greatest influence on calculated soil concentrations; bioavailability in food was consistently the least influential parameter, although an important site-specific variable. Relative importance of parameters differed by trophic group. Soil ingestion ranked 2nd for carnivores and herbivores, but was 4th for invertivores. Different patterns were exhibited, depending on which parameter, trophic group, and analyte combination was considered. The approach for TRV selection was also examined in detail, with Cu as the representative analyte. The underlying assumption that generic body-weight-normalized TRVs can be used to derive protective levels for any species is not supported by the data. Whereas the use of site-, species-, and analyte-specific exposure parameters is recommended to reduce variation in exposure estimates (soil protection level), improvement of TRVs is more problematic. © 2014 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sensitivity of ecological soil-screening levels for metals to exposure model parameterization and toxicity reference values

PubMed Central

Sample, Bradley E; Fairbrother, Anne; Kaiser, Ashley; Law, Sheryl; Adams, Bill

2014-01-01

Ecological soil-screening levels (Eco-SSLs) were developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for the purposes of setting conservative soil screening values that can be used to eliminate the need for further ecological assessment for specific analytes at a given site. Ecological soil-screening levels for wildlife represent a simplified dietary exposure model solved in terms of soil concentrations to produce exposure equal to a no-observed-adverse-effect toxicity reference value (TRV). Sensitivity analyses were performed for 6 avian and mammalian model species, and 16 metals/metalloids for which Eco-SSLs have been developed. The relative influence of model parameters was expressed as the absolute value of the range of variation observed in the resulting soil concentration when exposure is equal to the TRV. Rank analysis of variance was used to identify parameters with greatest influence on model output. For both birds and mammals, soil ingestion displayed the broadest overall range (variability), although TRVs consistently had the greatest influence on calculated soil concentrations; bioavailability in food was consistently the least influential parameter, although an important site-specific variable. Relative importance of parameters differed by trophic group. Soil ingestion ranked 2nd for carnivores and herbivores, but was 4th for invertivores. Different patterns were exhibited, depending on which parameter, trophic group, and analyte combination was considered. The approach for TRV selection was also examined in detail, with Cu as the representative analyte. The underlying assumption that generic body-weight–normalized TRVs can be used to derive protective levels for any species is not supported by the data. Whereas the use of site-, species-, and analyte-specific exposure parameters is recommended to reduce variation in exposure estimates (soil protection level), improvement of TRVs is more problematic. Environ Toxicol Chem 2014;33:2386–2398. PMID:24944000

BAIAP2 is related to emotional modulation of human memory strength.

PubMed

Luksys, Gediminas; Ackermann, Sandra; Coynel, David; Fastenrath, Matthias; Gschwind, Leo; Heck, Angela; Rasch, Bjoern; Spalek, Klara; Vogler, Christian; Papassotiropoulos, Andreas; de Quervain, Dominique

2014-01-01

Memory performance is the result of many distinct mental processes, such as memory encoding, forgetting, and modulation of memory strength by emotional arousal. These processes, which are subserved by partly distinct molecular profiles, are not always amenable to direct observation. Therefore, computational models can be used to make inferences about specific mental processes and to study their genetic underpinnings. Here we combined a computational model-based analysis of memory-related processes with high density genetic information derived from a genome-wide study in healthy young adults. After identifying the best-fitting model for a verbal memory task and estimating the best-fitting individual cognitive parameters, we found a common variant in the gene encoding the brain-specific angiogenesis inhibitor 1-associated protein 2 (BAIAP2) that was related to the model parameter reflecting modulation of verbal memory strength by negative valence. We also observed an association between the same genetic variant and a similar emotional modulation phenotype in a different population performing a picture memory task. Furthermore, using functional neuroimaging we found robust genotype-dependent differences in activity of the parahippocampal cortex that were specifically related to successful memory encoding of negative versus neutral information. Finally, we analyzed cortical gene expression data of 193 deceased subjects and detected significant BAIAP2 genotype-dependent differences in BAIAP2 mRNA levels. Our findings suggest that model-based dissociation of specific cognitive parameters can improve the understanding of genetic underpinnings of human learning and memory.

Applying model abstraction techniques to optimize monitoring networks for detecting subsurface contaminant transport

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improving strategies for monitoring subsurface contaminant transport includes performance comparison of competing models, developed independently or obtained via model abstraction. Model comparison and parameter discrimination involve specific performance indicators selected to better understand s...

A Systematic Approach to Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Health Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2009-01-01

A systematic approach for selecting an optimal suite of sensors for on-board aircraft gas turbine engine health estimation is presented. The methodology optimally chooses the engine sensor suite and the model tuning parameter vector to minimize the Kalman filter mean squared estimation error in the engine s health parameters or other unmeasured engine outputs. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem where there are more unknown system health parameters representing degradation than available sensor measurements. This paper presents the theoretical estimation error equations, and describes the optimization approach that is applied to select the sensors and model tuning parameters to minimize these errors. Two different model tuning parameter vector selection approaches are evaluated: the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuning parameters, and an alternative approach that selects tuning parameters as a linear combination of all health parameters. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented, and compared to those from an alternative sensor selection strategy.

Pairing field methods to improve inference in wildlife surveys while accommodating detection covariance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clare, John; McKinney, Shawn T.; DePue, John E.; Loftin, Cynthia S.

2017-01-01

It is common to use multiple field sampling methods when implementing wildlife surveys to compare method efficacy or cost efficiency, integrate distinct pieces of information provided by separate methods, or evaluate method-specific biases and misclassification error. Existing models that combine information from multiple field methods or sampling devices permit rigorous comparison of method-specific detection parameters, enable estimation of additional parameters such as false-positive detection probability, and improve occurrence or abundance estimates, but with the assumption that the separate sampling methods produce detections independently of one another. This assumption is tenuous if methods are paired or deployed in close proximity simultaneously, a common practice that reduces the additional effort required to implement multiple methods and reduces the risk that differences between method-specific detection parameters are confounded by other environmental factors. We develop occupancy and spatial capture–recapture models that permit covariance between the detections produced by different methods, use simulation to compare estimator performance of the new models to models assuming independence, and provide an empirical application based on American marten (Martes americana) surveys using paired remote cameras, hair catches, and snow tracking. Simulation results indicate existing models that assume that methods independently detect organisms produce biased parameter estimates and substantially understate estimate uncertainty when this assumption is violated, while our reformulated models are robust to either methodological independence or covariance. Empirical results suggested that remote cameras and snow tracking had comparable probability of detecting present martens, but that snow tracking also produced false-positive marten detections that could potentially substantially bias distribution estimates if not corrected for. Remote cameras detected marten individuals more readily than passive hair catches. Inability to photographically distinguish individual sex did not appear to induce negative bias in camera density estimates; instead, hair catches appeared to produce detection competition between individuals that may have been a source of negative bias. Our model reformulations broaden the range of circumstances in which analyses incorporating multiple sources of information can be robustly used, and our empirical results demonstrate that using multiple field-methods can enhance inferences regarding ecological parameters of interest and improve understanding of how reliably survey methods sample these parameters.

A predictive model for biomimetic plate type broadband frequency sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Riaz U.; Banerjee, Sourav

2016-04-01

In this work, predictive model for a bio-inspired broadband frequency sensor is developed. Broadband frequency sensing is essential in many domains of science and technology. One great example of such sensor is human cochlea, where it senses a frequency band of 20 Hz to 20 KHz. Developing broadband sensor adopting the physics of human cochlea has found tremendous interest in recent years. Although few experimental studies have been reported, a true predictive model to design such sensors is missing. A predictive model is utmost necessary for accurate design of selective broadband sensors that are capable of sensing very selective band of frequencies. Hence, in this study, we proposed a novel predictive model for the cochlea-inspired broadband sensor, aiming to select the frequency band and model parameters predictively. Tapered plate geometry is considered mimicking the real shape of the basilar membrane in the human cochlea. The predictive model is intended to develop flexible enough that can be employed in a wide variety of scientific domains. To do that, the predictive model is developed in such a way that, it can not only handle homogeneous but also any functionally graded model parameters. Additionally, the predictive model is capable of managing various types of boundary conditions. It has been found that, using the homogeneous model parameters, it is possible to sense a specific frequency band from a specific portion (B) of the model length (L). It is also possible to alter the attributes of `B' using functionally graded model parameters, which confirms the predictive frequency selection ability of the developed model.

Transport and fate of radionuclides in aquatic environments--the use of ecosystem modelling for exposure assessments of nuclear facilities.

PubMed

Kumblad, L; Kautsky, U; Naeslund, B

2006-01-01

In safety assessments of nuclear facilities, a wide range of radioactive isotopes and their potential hazard to a large assortment of organisms and ecosystem types over long time scales need to be considered. Models used for these purposes have typically employed approaches based on generic reference organisms, stylised environments and transfer functions for biological uptake exclusively based on bioconcentration factors (BCFs). These models are of non-mechanistic nature and involve no understanding of uptake and transport processes in the environment, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. In this paper, ecosystem models are suggested as a method to include site-specific data and to facilitate the modelling of dynamic systems. An aquatic ecosystem model for the environmental transport of radionuclides is presented and discussed. With this model, driven and constrained by site-specific carbon dynamics and three radionuclide specific mechanisms: (i) radionuclide uptake by plants, (ii) excretion by animals, and (iii) adsorption to organic surfaces, it was possible to estimate the radionuclide concentrations in all components of the modelled ecosystem with only two radionuclide specific input parameters (BCF for plants and Kd). The importance of radionuclide specific mechanisms for the exposure to organisms was examined, and probabilistic and sensitivity analyses to assess the uncertainties related to ecosystem input parameters were performed. Verification of the model suggests that this model produces analogous results to empirically derived data for more than 20 different radionuclides.

Bayesian inference for OPC modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbine, Andrew; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David; Smith, Bruce W.

2016-03-01

The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and inference techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper aims to demonstrate the predictive power of Bayesian inference as a method for parameter selection in lithographic models by quantifying the uncertainty associated with model inputs and wafer data. Specifically, the method combines the model builder's prior information about each modelling assumption with the maximization of each observation's likelihood as a Student's t-distributed random variable. Through the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a model's parameter space is explored to find the most credible parameter values. During parameter exploration, the parameters' posterior distributions are generated by applying Bayes' rule, using a likelihood function and the a priori knowledge supplied. The MCMC algorithm used, an affine invariant ensemble sampler (AIES), is implemented by initializing many walkers which semiindependently explore the space. The convergence of these walkers to global maxima of the likelihood volume determine the parameter values' highest density intervals (HDI) to reveal champion models. We show that this method of parameter selection provides insights into the data that traditional methods do not and outline continued experiments to vet the method.

Preference heterogeneity in a count data model of demand for off-highway vehicle recreation

Treesearch

Thomas P Holmes; Jeffrey E Englin

2010-01-01

This paper examines heterogeneity in the preferences for OHV recreation by applying the random parameters Poisson model to a data set of off-highway vehicle (OHV) users at four National Forest sites in North Carolina. The analysis develops estimates of individual consumer surplus and finds that estimates are systematically affected by the random parameter specification...

An analysis of the least-squares problem for the DSN systematic pointing error model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, L. S.

1991-01-01

A systematic pointing error model is used to calibrate antennas in the Deep Space Network. The least squares problem is described and analyzed along with the solution methods used to determine the model's parameters. Specifically studied are the rank degeneracy problems resulting from beam pointing error measurement sets that incorporate inadequate sky coverage. A least squares parameter subset selection method is described and its applicability to the systematic error modeling process is demonstrated on Voyager 2 measurement distribution.

Nonlinear control of linear parameter varying systems with applications to hypersonic vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Zachary Donald

The focus of this dissertation is to design a controller for linear parameter varying (LPV) systems, apply it specifically to air-breathing hypersonic vehicles, and examine the interplay between control performance and the structural dynamics design. Specifically a Lyapunov-based continuous robust controller is developed that yields exponential tracking of a reference model, despite the presence of bounded, nonvanishing disturbances. The hypersonic vehicle has time varying parameters, specifically temperature profiles, and its dynamics can be reduced to an LPV system with additive disturbances. Since the HSV can be modeled as an LPV system the proposed control design is directly applicable. The control performance is directly examined through simulations. A wide variety of applications exist that can be effectively modeled as LPV systems. In particular, flight systems have historically been modeled as LPV systems and associated control tools have been applied such as gain-scheduling, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), linear fractional transformations (LFT), and mu-types. However, as the type of flight environments and trajectories become more demanding, the traditional LPV controllers may no longer be sufficient. In particular, hypersonic flight vehicles (HSVs) present an inherently difficult problem because of the nonlinear aerothermoelastic coupling effects in the dynamics. HSV flight conditions produce temperature variations that can alter both the structural dynamics and flight dynamics. Starting with the full nonlinear dynamics, the aerothermoelastic effects are modeled by a temperature dependent, parameter varying state-space representation with added disturbances. The model includes an uncertain parameter varying state matrix, an uncertain parameter varying non-square (column deficient) input matrix, and an additive bounded disturbance. In this dissertation, a robust dynamic controller is formulated for a uncertain and disturbed LPV system. The developed controller is then applied to a HSV model, and a Lyapunov analysis is used to prove global exponential reference model tracking in the presence of uncertainty in the state and input matrices and exogenous disturbances. Simulations with a spectrum of gains and temperature profiles on the full nonlinear dynamic model of the HSV is used to illustrate the performance and robustness of the developed controller. In addition, this work considers how the performance of the developed controller varies over a wide variety of control gains and temperature profiles and are optimized with respect to different performance metrics. Specifically, various temperature profile models and related nonlinear temperature dependent disturbances are used to characterize the relative control performance and effort for each model. Examining such metrics as a function of temperature provides a potential inroad to examine the interplay between structural/thermal protection design and control development and has application for future HSV design and control implementation.

A time series model: First-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1))

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simarmata, D. M.; Novkaniza, F.; Widyaningsih, Y.

2017-07-01

Nonnegative integer-valued time series arises in many applications. A time series model: first-order Integer-valued AutoRegressive (INAR(1)) is constructed by binomial thinning operator to model nonnegative integer-valued time series. INAR (1) depends on one period from the process before. The parameter of the model can be estimated by Conditional Least Squares (CLS). Specification of INAR(1) is following the specification of (AR(1)). Forecasting in INAR(1) uses median or Bayesian forecasting methodology. Median forecasting methodology obtains integer s, which is cumulative density function (CDF) until s, is more than or equal to 0.5. Bayesian forecasting methodology forecasts h-step-ahead of generating the parameter of the model and parameter of innovation term using Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling within Gibbs sampling (ARMS), then finding the least integer s, where CDF until s is more than or equal to u . u is a value taken from the Uniform(0,1) distribution. INAR(1) is applied on pneumonia case in Penjaringan, Jakarta Utara, January 2008 until April 2016 monthly.

A source-specific model for lossless compression of global Earth data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kess, Barbara Lynne

A Source Specific Model for Global Earth Data (SSM-GED) is a lossless compression method for large images that captures global redundancy in the data and achieves a significant improvement over CALIC and DCXT-BT/CARP, two leading lossless compression schemes. The Global Land 1-Km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, which contains 662 Megabytes (MB) per band, is an example of a large data set that requires decompression of regions of the data. For this reason, SSM-GED compresses the AVHRR data as a collection of subwindows. This approach defines the statistical parameters for the model prior to compression. Unlike universal models that assume no a priori knowledge of the data, SSM-GED captures global redundancy that exists among all of the subwindows of data. The overlap in parameters among subwindows of data enables SSM-GED to improve the compression rate by increasing the number of parameters and maintaining a small model cost for each subwindow of data. This lossless compression method is applicable to other large volumes of image data such as video.

Membrane filtration device for studying compression of fouling layers in membrane bioreactors

PubMed Central

Bugge, Thomas Vistisen; Larsen, Poul; Nielsen, Per Halkjær; Christensen, Morten Lykkegaard

2017-01-01

A filtration devise was developed to assess compressibility of fouling layers in membrane bioreactors. The system consists of a flat sheet membrane with air scouring operated at constant transmembrane pressure to assess the influence of pressure on resistance of fouling layers. By fitting a mathematical model, three model parameters were obtained; a back transport parameter describing the kinetics of fouling layer formation, a specific fouling layer resistance, and a compressibility parameter. This stands out from other on-site filterability tests as model parameters to simulate filtration performance are obtained together with a characterization of compressibility. Tests on membrane bioreactor sludge showed high reproducibility. The methodology’s ability to assess compressibility was tested by filtrations of sludges from membrane bioreactors and conventional activated sludge wastewater treatment plants from three different sites. These proved that membrane bioreactor sludge showed higher compressibility than conventional activated sludge. In addition, detailed information on the underlying mechanisms of the difference in fouling propensity were obtained, as conventional activated sludge showed slower fouling formation, lower specific resistance and lower compressibility of fouling layers, which is explained by a higher degree of flocculation. PMID:28749990

Parameter identification of hyperelastic material properties of the heel pad based on an analytical contact mechanics model of a spherical indentation.

PubMed

Suzuki, Ryo; Ito, Kohta; Lee, Taeyong; Ogihara, Naomichi

2017-01-01

Accurate identification of the material properties of the plantar soft tissue is important for computer-aided analysis of foot pathologies and design of therapeutic footwear interventions based on subject-specific models of the foot. However, parameter identification of the hyperelastic material properties of plantar soft tissues usually requires an inverse finite element analysis due to the lack of a practical contact model of the indentation test. In the present study, we derive an analytical contact model of a spherical indentation test in order to directly estimate the material properties of the plantar soft tissue. Force-displacement curves of the heel pads are obtained through an indentation experiment. The experimental data are fit to the analytical stress-strain solution of the spherical indentation in order to obtain the parameters. A spherical indentation approach successfully predicted the non-linear material properties of the heel pad without iterative finite element calculation. The force-displacement curve obtained in the present study was found to be situated lower than those identified in previous studies. The proposed framework for identifying the hyperelastic material parameters may facilitate the development of subject-specific FE modeling of the foot for possible clinical and ergonomic applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Frequency analysis of a two-stage planetary gearbox using two different methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feki, Nabih; Karray, Maha; Khabou, Mohamed Tawfik; Chaari, Fakher; Haddar, Mohamed

2017-12-01

This paper is focused on the characterization of the frequency content of vibration signals issued from a two-stage planetary gearbox. To achieve this goal, two different methodologies are adopted: the lumped-parameter modeling approach and the phenomenological modeling approach. The two methodologies aim to describe the complex vibrations generated by a two-stage planetary gearbox. The phenomenological model describes directly the vibrations as measured by a sensor fixed outside the fixed ring gear with respect to an inertial reference frame, while results from a lumped-parameter model are referenced with respect to a rotating frame and then transferred into an inertial reference frame. Two different case studies of the two-stage planetary gear are adopted to describe the vibration and the corresponding spectra using both models. Each case presents a specific geometry and a specific spectral structure.

Developing a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Knowledgebase in Support of Provisional Model Construction

EPA Science Inventory

Developing physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for chemicals can be resource-intensive, as neither chemical-specific parameters nor in vivo pharmacokinetic data are easily available for model construction. Previously developed, well-parameterized, and thoroughly-v...

Modeling metabolic networks in C. glutamicum: a comparison of rate laws in combination with various parameter optimization strategies

PubMed Central

Dräger, Andreas; Kronfeld, Marcel; Ziller, Michael J; Supper, Jochen; Planatscher, Hannes; Magnus, Jørgen B; Oldiges, Marco; Kohlbacher, Oliver; Zell, Andreas

2009-01-01

Background To understand the dynamic behavior of cellular systems, mathematical modeling is often necessary and comprises three steps: (1) experimental measurement of participating molecules, (2) assignment of rate laws to each reaction, and (3) parameter calibration with respect to the measurements. In each of these steps the modeler is confronted with a plethora of alternative approaches, e. g., the selection of approximative rate laws in step two as specific equations are often unknown, or the choice of an estimation procedure with its specific settings in step three. This overall process with its numerous choices and the mutual influence between them makes it hard to single out the best modeling approach for a given problem. Results We investigate the modeling process using multiple kinetic equations together with various parameter optimization methods for a well-characterized example network, the biosynthesis of valine and leucine in C. glutamicum. For this purpose, we derive seven dynamic models based on generalized mass action, Michaelis-Menten and convenience kinetics as well as the stochastic Langevin equation. In addition, we introduce two modeling approaches for feedback inhibition to the mass action kinetics. The parameters of each model are estimated using eight optimization strategies. To determine the most promising modeling approaches together with the best optimization algorithms, we carry out a two-step benchmark: (1) coarse-grained comparison of the algorithms on all models and (2) fine-grained tuning of the best optimization algorithms and models. To analyze the space of the best parameters found for each model, we apply clustering, variance, and correlation analysis. Conclusion A mixed model based on the convenience rate law and the Michaelis-Menten equation, in which all reactions are assumed to be reversible, is the most suitable deterministic modeling approach followed by a reversible generalized mass action kinetics model. A Langevin model is advisable to take stochastic effects into account. To estimate the model parameters, three algorithms are particularly useful: For first attempts the settings-free Tribes algorithm yields valuable results. Particle swarm optimization and differential evolution provide significantly better results with appropriate settings. PMID:19144170

Investigation of the dependence of joint contact forces on musculotendon parameters using a codified workflow for image-based modelling.

PubMed

Modenese, Luca; Montefiori, Erica; Wang, Anqi; Wesarg, Stefan; Viceconti, Marco; Mazzà, Claudia

2018-05-17

The generation of subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the lower limb has become a feasible task thanks to improvements in medical imaging technology and musculoskeletal modelling software. Nevertheless, clinical use of these models in paediatric applications is still limited for what concerns the estimation of muscle and joint contact forces. Aiming to improve the current state of the art, a methodology to generate highly personalized subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the lower limb based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans was codified as a step-by-step procedure and applied to data from eight juvenile individuals. The generated musculoskeletal models were used to simulate 107 gait trials using stereophotogrammetric and force platform data as input. To ensure completeness of the modelling procedure, muscles' architecture needs to be estimated. Four methods to estimate muscles' maximum isometric force and two methods to estimate musculotendon parameters (optimal fiber length and tendon slack length) were assessed and compared, in order to quantify their influence on the models' output. Reported results represent the first comprehensive subject-specific model-based characterization of juvenile gait biomechanics, including profiles of joint kinematics and kinetics, muscle forces and joint contact forces. Our findings suggest that, when musculotendon parameters were linearly scaled from a reference model and the muscle force-length-velocity relationship was accounted for in the simulations, realistic knee contact forces could be estimated and these forces were not sensitive the method used to compute muscle maximum isometric force. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimating parameter values of a socio-hydrological flood model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holkje Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Kreibich, Heidi; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno; Blöschl, Günter

2018-06-01

Socio-hydrological modelling studies that have been published so far show that dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent the phenomena and the feedbacks in human-flood systems. So far these models are mostly generic and have not been developed and calibrated to represent specific case studies. We believe that applying and calibrating these type of models to real world case studies can help us to further develop our understanding about the phenomena that occur in these systems. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the parameter values of a socio-hydrological model and we test it by applying it to an artificial case study. We postulate a model that describes the feedbacks between floods, awareness and preparedness. After simulating hypothetical time series with a given combination of parameters, we sample few data points for our variables and try to estimate the parameters given these data points using Bayesian Inference. The results show that, if we are able to collect data for our case study, we would, in theory, be able to estimate the parameter values for our socio-hydrological flood model.

Overview and benchmark analysis of fuel cell parameters estimation for energy management purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandidayeni, M.; Macias, A.; Amamou, A. A.; Boulon, L.; Kelouwani, S.; Chaoui, H.

2018-03-01

Proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) have become the center of attention for energy conversion in many areas such as automotive industry, where they confront a high dynamic behavior resulting in their characteristics variation. In order to ensure appropriate modeling of PEMFCs, accurate parameters estimation is in demand. However, parameter estimation of PEMFC models is highly challenging due to their multivariate, nonlinear, and complex essence. This paper comprehensively reviews PEMFC models parameters estimation methods with a specific view to online identification algorithms, which are considered as the basis of global energy management strategy design, to estimate the linear and nonlinear parameters of a PEMFC model in real time. In this respect, different PEMFC models with different categories and purposes are discussed first. Subsequently, a thorough investigation of PEMFC parameter estimation methods in the literature is conducted in terms of applicability. Three potential algorithms for online applications, Recursive Least Square (RLS), Kalman filter, and extended Kalman filter (EKF), which has escaped the attention in previous works, have been then utilized to identify the parameters of two well-known semi-empirical models in the literature, Squadrito et al. and Amphlett et al. Ultimately, the achieved results and future challenges are discussed.

Coupling heat and chemical tracer experiments for estimating heat transfer parameters in shallow alluvial aquifers.

PubMed

Wildemeersch, S; Jamin, P; Orban, P; Hermans, T; Klepikova, M; Nguyen, F; Brouyère, S; Dassargues, A

2014-11-15

Geothermal energy systems, closed or open, are increasingly considered for heating and/or cooling buildings. The efficiency of such systems depends on the thermal properties of the subsurface. Therefore, feasibility and impact studies performed prior to their installation should include a field characterization of thermal properties and a heat transfer model using parameter values measured in situ. However, there is a lack of in situ experiments and methodology for performing such a field characterization, especially for open systems. This study presents an in situ experiment designed for estimating heat transfer parameters in shallow alluvial aquifers with focus on the specific heat capacity. This experiment consists in simultaneously injecting hot water and a chemical tracer into the aquifer and monitoring the evolution of groundwater temperature and concentration in the recovery well (and possibly in other piezometers located down gradient). Temperature and concentrations are then used for estimating the specific heat capacity. The first method for estimating this parameter is based on a modeling in series of the chemical tracer and temperature breakthrough curves at the recovery well. The second method is based on an energy balance. The values of specific heat capacity estimated for both methods (2.30 and 2.54MJ/m(3)/K) for the experimental site in the alluvial aquifer of the Meuse River (Belgium) are almost identical and consistent with values found in the literature. Temperature breakthrough curves in other piezometers are not required for estimating the specific heat capacity. However, they highlight that heat transfer in the alluvial aquifer of the Meuse River is complex and contrasted with different dominant process depending on the depth leading to significant vertical heat exchange between upper and lower part of the aquifer. Furthermore, these temperature breakthrough curves could be included in the calibration of a complex heat transfer model for estimating the entire set of heat transfer parameters and their spatial distribution by inverse modeling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Chamorro-Chavez, Alejandro; Breuer, Lutz

2017-04-01

The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

PubMed

Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Chamorro-Chavez, Alejandro; Breuer, Lutz

2015-01-01

The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package

PubMed Central

Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Chamorro-Chavez, Alejandro; Breuer, Lutz

2015-01-01

The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function. PMID:26680783

Assessing the applicability of WRF optimal parameters under the different precipitation simulations in the Greater Beijing Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, Zhenhua; Duan, Qingyun; Wang, Chen; Ye, Aizhong; Miao, Chiyuan; Gong, Wei

2018-03-01

Forecasting skills of the complex weather and climate models have been improved by tuning the sensitive parameters that exert the greatest impact on simulated results based on more effective optimization methods. However, whether the optimal parameter values are still work when the model simulation conditions vary, which is a scientific problem deserving of study. In this study, a highly-effective optimization method, adaptive surrogate model-based optimization (ASMO), was firstly used to tune nine sensitive parameters from four physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to obtain better summer precipitation forecasting over the Greater Beijing Area in China. Then, to assess the applicability of the optimal parameter values, simulation results from the WRF model with default and optimal parameter values were compared across precipitation events, boundary conditions, spatial scales, and physical processes in the Greater Beijing Area. The summer precipitation events from 6 years were used to calibrate and evaluate the optimal parameter values of WRF model. Three boundary data and two spatial resolutions were adopted to evaluate the superiority of the calibrated optimal parameters to default parameters under the WRF simulations with different boundary conditions and spatial resolutions, respectively. Physical interpretations of the optimal parameters indicating how to improve precipitation simulation results were also examined. All the results showed that the optimal parameters obtained by ASMO are superior to the default parameters for WRF simulations for predicting summer precipitation in the Greater Beijing Area because the optimal parameters are not constrained by specific precipitation events, boundary conditions, and spatial resolutions. The optimal values of the nine parameters were determined from 127 parameter samples using the ASMO method, which showed that the ASMO method is very highly-efficient for optimizing WRF model parameters.

A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Functional Mapping of Longitudinal Binary Traits

PubMed Central

Wang, Chenguang; Li, Hongying; Wang, Zhong; Wang, Yaqun; Wang, Ningtao; Wang, Zuoheng; Wu, Rongling

2013-01-01

Despite their importance in biology and biomedicine, genetic mapping of binary traits that change over time has not been well explored. In this article, we develop a statistical model for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that govern longitudinal responses of binary traits. The model is constructed within the maximum likelihood framework by which the association between binary responses is modeled in terms of conditional log odds-ratios. With this parameterization, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of marginal mean parameters are robust to the misspecification of time dependence. We implement an iterative procedures to obtain the MLEs of QTL genotype-specific parameters that define longitudinal binary responses. The usefulness of the model was validated by analyzing a real example in rice. Simulation studies were performed to investigate the statistical properties of the model, showing that the model has power to identify and map specific QTLs responsible for the temporal pattern of binary traits. PMID:23183762

Bayesian inversions of a dynamic vegetation model at four European grassland sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minet, J.; Laloy, E.; Tychon, B.; Francois, L.

2015-05-01

Eddy covariance data from four European grassland sites are used to probabilistically invert the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with 10 unknown parameters, using the DREAM(ZS) (DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. We focus on comparing model inversions, considering both homoscedastic and heteroscedastic eddy covariance residual errors, with variances either fixed a priori or jointly inferred together with the model parameters. Agreements between measured and simulated data during calibration are comparable with previous studies, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of simulated daily gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RECO) and evapotranspiration (ET) ranging from 1.73 to 2.19, 1.04 to 1.56 g C m-2 day-1 and 0.50 to 1.28 mm day-1, respectively. For the calibration period, using a homoscedastic eddy covariance residual error model resulted in a better agreement between measured and modelled data than using a heteroscedastic residual error model. However, a model validation experiment showed that CARAIB models calibrated considering heteroscedastic residual errors perform better. Posterior parameter distributions derived from using a heteroscedastic model of the residuals thus appear to be more robust. This is the case even though the classical linear heteroscedastic error model assumed herein did not fully remove heteroscedasticity of the GPP residuals. Despite the fact that the calibrated model is generally capable of fitting the data within measurement errors, systematic bias in the model simulations are observed. These are likely due to model inadequacies such as shortcomings in the photosynthesis modelling. Besides the residual error treatment, differences between model parameter posterior distributions among the four grassland sites are also investigated. It is shown that the marginal distributions of the specific leaf area and characteristic mortality time parameters can be explained by site-specific ecophysiological characteristics.

From global to local: exploring the relationship between parameters and behaviors in models of electrical excitability.

PubMed

Fletcher, Patrick; Bertram, Richard; Tabak, Joel

2016-06-01

Models of electrical activity in excitable cells involve nonlinear interactions between many ionic currents. Changing parameters in these models can produce a variety of activity patterns with sometimes unexpected effects. Further more, introducing new currents will have different effects depending on the initial parameter set. In this study we combined global sampling of parameter space and local analysis of representative parameter sets in a pituitary cell model to understand the effects of adding K (+) conductances, which mediate some effects of hormone action on these cells. Global sampling ensured that the effects of introducing K (+) conductances were captured across a wide variety of contexts of model parameters. For each type of K (+) conductance we determined the types of behavioral transition that it evoked. Some transitions were counterintuitive, and may have been missed without the use of global sampling. In general, the wide range of transitions that occurred when the same current was applied to the model cell at different locations in parameter space highlight the challenge of making accurate model predictions in light of cell-to-cell heterogeneity. Finally, we used bifurcation analysis and fast/slow analysis to investigate why specific transitions occur in representative individual models. This approach relies on the use of a graphics processing unit (GPU) to quickly map parameter space to model behavior and identify parameter sets for further analysis. Acceleration with modern low-cost GPUs is particularly well suited to exploring the moderate-sized (5-20) parameter spaces of excitable cell and signaling models.

Effects of critical fluctuations and dimensionality on the jump in specific heat at the superconducting transition temperature: Application to YBa_{2}Cu_{3}O_{7-δ},Bi_{2}Sr_{2}CaCu_{2}O_{8+δ}, and KOs_{2}O_{6} compounds.

PubMed

Keumo Tsiaze, R M; Wirngo, A V; Mkam Tchouobiap, S E; Fotue, A J; Baloïtcha, E; Hounkonnou, M N

2016-06-01

We report on a study of the superconducting order parameter thermodynamic fluctuations in YBa_{2}Cu_{3}O_{7-δ},Bi_{2}Sr_{2}CaCu_{2}O_{8+δ}, and KOs_{2}O_{6} compounds. A nonperturbative technique within the framework of the renormalized Gaussian approach is proposed. The essential features are reported (analytically and numerically) through Ginzburg-Landau (GL) model-based calculations which take into account both the dimension and the microscopic parameters of the system. By presenting a self-consistent approach improvement on the GL theory, a technique for obtaining corrections to the asymptotic critical behavior in terms of nonuniversal parameters is developed. Therefore, corrections to the specific heat and the critical transition temperature for one-, two-, and three-dimensional samples are found taking into account the fact that fluctuations occur at all length scales as the critical point of a system is approached. The GL model in the free-field approximation and the 3D-XY model are suitable for describing the weak and strong fluctuation regimes respectively. However, with a modified quadratic coefficient, the renormalized GL model is able to explain certain experimental observations including the specific heat of complicated systems, such as the cup-rate superconductors and the β-pyrochlore oxides. It is clearly shown that the enhancement, suppression, or rounding of the specific heat jump of high-T_{c} cup-rate superconductors at the transition are indicative of the order parameter thermodynamic fluctuations according to the dimension and the nature of interactions.

Wave-front propagation in a discrete model of excitable media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, A. B.; Chernyak, Y. B.; Cohen, R. J.

1998-06-01

We generalize our recent discrete cellular automata (CA) model of excitable media [Y. B. Chernyak, A. B. Feldman, and R. J. Cohen, Phys. Rev. E 55, 3215 (1997)] to incorporate the effects of inhibitory processes on the propagation of the excitation wave front. In the common two variable reaction-diffusion (RD) models of excitable media, the inhibitory process is described by the v ``controller'' variable responsible for the restoration of the equilibrium state following excitation. In myocardial tissue, the inhibitory effects are mainly due to the inactivation of the fast sodium current. We represent inhibition using a physical model in which the ``source'' contribution of excited elements to the excitation of their neighbors decreases with time as a simple function with a single adjustable parameter (a rate constant). We sought specific solutions of the CA state transition equations and obtained (both analytically and numerically) the dependence of the wave-front speed c on the four model parameters and the wave-front curvature κ. By requiring that the major characteristics of c(κ) in our CA model coincide with those obtained from solutions of a specific RD model, we find a unique set of CA parameter values for a given excitable medium. The basic structure of our CA solutions is remarkably similar to that found in typical RD systems (similar behavior is observed when the analogous model parameters are varied). Most notably, the ``turn-on'' of the inhibitory process is accompanied by the appearance of a solution branch of slow speed, unstable waves. Additionally, when κ is small, we obtain a family of ``eikonal'' relations c(κ) that are suitable for the kinematic analysis of traveling waves in the CA medium. We compared the solutions of the CA equations to CA simulations for the case of plane waves and circular (target) waves and found excellent agreement. We then studied a spiral wave using the CA model adjusted to a specific RD system and found good correspondence between the shapes of the RD and CA spiral arms in the region away from the tip where kinematic theory applies. Our analysis suggests that only four physical parameters control the behavior of wave fronts in excitable media.

Assessment of source-specific health effects associated with an unknown number of major sources of multiple air pollutants: a unified Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Park, Eun Sug; Hopke, Philip K; Oh, Man-Suk; Symanski, Elaine; Han, Daikwon; Spiegelman, Clifford H

2014-07-01

There has been increasing interest in assessing health effects associated with multiple air pollutants emitted by specific sources. A major difficulty with achieving this goal is that the pollution source profiles are unknown and source-specific exposures cannot be measured directly; rather, they need to be estimated by decomposing ambient measurements of multiple air pollutants. This estimation process, called multivariate receptor modeling, is challenging because of the unknown number of sources and unknown identifiability conditions (model uncertainty). The uncertainty in source-specific exposures (source contributions) as well as uncertainty in the number of major pollution sources and identifiability conditions have been largely ignored in previous studies. A multipollutant approach that can deal with model uncertainty in multivariate receptor models while simultaneously accounting for parameter uncertainty in estimated source-specific exposures in assessment of source-specific health effects is presented in this paper. The methods are applied to daily ambient air measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]), weather data, and counts of cardiovascular deaths from 1995 to 1997 for Phoenix, AZ, USA. Our approach for evaluating source-specific health effects yields not only estimates of source contributions along with their uncertainties and associated health effects estimates but also estimates of model uncertainty (posterior model probabilities) that have been ignored in previous studies. The results from our methods agreed in general with those from the previously conducted workshop/studies on the source apportionment of PM health effects in terms of number of major contributing sources, estimated source profiles, and contributions. However, some of the adverse source-specific health effects identified in the previous studies were not statistically significant in our analysis, which probably resulted because we incorporated parameter uncertainty in estimated source contributions that has been ignored in the previous studies into the estimation of health effects parameters. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Patient specific CFD models of nasal airflow: overview of methods and challenges.

PubMed

Kim, Sung Kyun; Na, Yang; Kim, Jee-In; Chung, Seung-Kyu

2013-01-18

Respiratory physiology and pathology are strongly dependent on the airflow inside the nasal cavity. However, the nasal anatomy, which is characterized by complex airway channels and significant individual differences, is difficult to analyze. Thus, commonly adopted diagnostic tools have yielded limited success. Nevertheless, with the rapid advances in computer resources, there have been more elaborate attempts to correlate airflow characteristics in human nasal airways with the symptoms and functions of the nose by computational fluid dynamics study. Furthermore, the computed nasal geometry can be virtually modified to reflect predicted results of the proposed surgical technique. In this article, several computational fluid mechanics (CFD) issues on patient-specific three dimensional (3D) modeling of nasal cavity and clinical applications were reviewed in relation to the cases of deviated nasal septum (decision for surgery), turbinectomy, and maxillary sinus ventilation (simulated- and post-surgery). Clinical relevance of fluid mechanical parameters, such as nasal resistance, flow allocation, wall shear stress, heat/humidity/NO gas distributions, to the symptoms and surgical outcome were discussed. Absolute values of such parameters reported by many research groups were different each other due to individual difference of nasal anatomy, the methodology for 3D modeling and numerical grid, laminar/turbulent flow model in CFD code. But, the correlation of these parameters to symptoms and surgery outcome seems to be obvious in each research group with subject-specific models and its variations (virtual- and post-surgery models). For the more reliable, patient-specific, and objective tools for diagnosis and outcomes of nasal surgery by using CFD, the future challenges will be the standardizations on the methodology for creating 3D airway models and the CFD procedures. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ab initio-informed maximum entropy modeling of rovibrational relaxation and state-specific dissociation with application to the O{sub 2} + O system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kulakhmetov, Marat, E-mail: mkulakhm@purdue.edu; Alexeenko, Alina, E-mail: alexeenk@purdue.edu; Gallis, Michael, E-mail: magalli@sandia.gov

Quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations are used to study state-specific ro-vibrational energy exchange and dissociation in the O{sub 2} + O system. Atom-diatom collisions with energy between 0.1 and 20 eV are calculated with a double many body expansion potential energy surface by Varandas and Pais [Mol. Phys. 65, 843 (1988)]. Inelastic collisions favor mono-quantum vibrational transitions at translational energies above 1.3 eV although multi-quantum transitions are also important. Post-collision vibrational favoring decreases first exponentially and then linearly as Δv increases. Vibrationally elastic collisions (Δv = 0) favor small ΔJ transitions while vibrationally inelastic collisions have equilibrium post-collision rotational distributions. Dissociationmore » exhibits both vibrational and rotational favoring. New vibrational-translational (VT), vibrational-rotational-translational (VRT) energy exchange, and dissociation models are developed based on QCT observations and maximum entropy considerations. Full set of parameters for state-to-state modeling of oxygen is presented. The VT energy exchange model describes 22 000 state-to-state vibrational cross sections using 11 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 30% in the 2500–20 000 K temperature range. The VRT model captures 80 × 10{sup 6} state-to-state ro-vibrational cross sections using 19 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 60% in the 5000–15 000 K temperature range. The developed dissociation model reproduces state-specific and equilibrium dissociation rates within 25% using just 48 parameters. The maximum entropy framework makes it feasible to upscale ab initio simulation to full nonequilibrium flow calculations.« less

RELATING ACCUMULATOR MODEL PARAMETERS AND NEURAL DYNAMICS

PubMed Central

Purcell, Braden A.; Palmeri, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

Accumulator models explain decision-making as an accumulation of evidence to a response threshold. Specific model parameters are associated with specific model mechanisms, such as the time when accumulation begins, the average rate of evidence accumulation, and the threshold. These mechanisms determine both the within-trial dynamics of evidence accumulation and the predicted behavior. Cognitive modelers usually infer what mechanisms vary during decision-making by seeing what parameters vary when a model is fitted to observed behavior. The recent identification of neural activity with evidence accumulation suggests that it may be possible to directly infer what mechanisms vary from an analysis of how neural dynamics vary. However, evidence accumulation is often noisy, and noise complicates the relationship between accumulator dynamics and the underlying mechanisms leading to those dynamics. To understand what kinds of inferences can be made about decision-making mechanisms based on measures of neural dynamics, we measured simulated accumulator model dynamics while systematically varying model parameters. In some cases, decision- making mechanisms can be directly inferred from dynamics, allowing us to distinguish between models that make identical behavioral predictions. In other cases, however, different parameterized mechanisms produce surprisingly similar dynamics, limiting the inferences that can be made based on measuring dynamics alone. Analyzing neural dynamics can provide a powerful tool to resolve model mimicry at the behavioral level, but we caution against drawing inferences based solely on neural analyses. Instead, simultaneous modeling of behavior and neural dynamics provides the most powerful approach to understand decision-making and likely other aspects of cognition and perception. PMID:28392584

Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-01-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting climate-mediated different sensitivities of modeled sugar cane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-06-01

Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugarcane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. The ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting different climate-mediated sensitivities of modeled sugarcane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

The four fixed points of scale invariant single field cosmological models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xue, BingKan, E-mail: bxue@princeton.edu

2012-10-01

We introduce a new set of flow parameters to describe the time dependence of the equation of state and the speed of sound in single field cosmological models. A scale invariant power spectrum is produced if these flow parameters satisfy specific dynamical equations. We analyze the flow of these parameters and find four types of fixed points that encompass all known single field models. Moreover, near each fixed point we uncover new models where the scale invariance of the power spectrum relies on having simultaneously time varying speed of sound and equation of state. We describe several distinctive new modelsmore » and discuss constraints from strong coupling and superluminality.« less

Exact closed-form solutions of a fully nonlinear asymptotic two-fluid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheviakov, Alexei F.

2018-05-01

A fully nonlinear model of Choi and Camassa (1999) describing one-dimensional incompressible dynamics of two non-mixing fluids in a horizontal channel, under a shallow water approximation, is considered. An equivalence transformation is presented, leading to a special dimensionless form of the system, involving a single dimensionless constant physical parameter, as opposed to five parameters present in the original model. A first-order dimensionless ordinary differential equation describing traveling wave solutions is analyzed. Several multi-parameter families of physically meaningful exact closed-form solutions of the two-fluid model are derived, corresponding to periodic, solitary, and kink-type bidirectional traveling waves; specific examples are given, and properties of the exact solutions are analyzed.

Quality Control Analysis of Selected Aspects of Programs Administered by the Bureau of Student Financial Assistance. Task 1 and Quality Control Sample; Error-Prone Modeling Analysis Plan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saavedra, Pedro; And Others

Parameters and procedures for developing an error-prone model (EPM) to predict financial aid applicants who are likely to misreport on Basic Educational Opportunity Grant (BEOG) applications are introduced. Specifications to adapt these general parameters to secondary data analysis of the Validation, Edits, and Applications Processing Systems…

BluePyOpt: Leveraging Open Source Software and Cloud Infrastructure to Optimise Model Parameters in Neuroscience.

PubMed

Van Geit, Werner; Gevaert, Michael; Chindemi, Giuseppe; Rössert, Christian; Courcol, Jean-Denis; Muller, Eilif B; Schürmann, Felix; Segev, Idan; Markram, Henry

2016-01-01

At many scales in neuroscience, appropriate mathematical models take the form of complex dynamical systems. Parameterizing such models to conform to the multitude of available experimental constraints is a global non-linear optimisation problem with a complex fitness landscape, requiring numerical techniques to find suitable approximate solutions. Stochastic optimisation approaches, such as evolutionary algorithms, have been shown to be effective, but often the setting up of such optimisations and the choice of a specific search algorithm and its parameters is non-trivial, requiring domain-specific expertise. Here we describe BluePyOpt, a Python package targeted at the broad neuroscience community to simplify this task. BluePyOpt is an extensible framework for data-driven model parameter optimisation that wraps and standardizes several existing open-source tools. It simplifies the task of creating and sharing these optimisations, and the associated techniques and knowledge. This is achieved by abstracting the optimisation and evaluation tasks into various reusable and flexible discrete elements according to established best-practices. Further, BluePyOpt provides methods for setting up both small- and large-scale optimisations on a variety of platforms, ranging from laptops to Linux clusters and cloud-based compute infrastructures. The versatility of the BluePyOpt framework is demonstrated by working through three representative neuroscience specific use cases.

A galloping quadruped model using left-right asymmetry in touchdown angles.

PubMed

Tanase, Masayasu; Ambe, Yuichi; Aoi, Shinya; Matsuno, Fumitoshi

2015-09-18

Among quadrupedal gaits, the galloping gait has specific characteristics in terms of locomotor behavior. In particular, it shows a left-right asymmetry in gait parameters such as touchdown angle and the relative phase of limb movements. In addition, asymmetric gait parameters show a characteristic dependence on locomotion speed. There are two types of galloping gaits in quadruped animals: the transverse gallop, often observed in horses; and the rotary gallop, often observed in dogs and cheetahs. These two gaits have different footfall sequences. Although these specific characteristics in quadrupedal galloping gaits have been observed and described in detail, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this paper, we use a simple physical model with a rigid body and four massless springs and incorporate the left-right asymmetry of touchdown angles. Our simulation results show that our model produces stable galloping gaits for certain combinations of model parameters and explains these specific characteristics observed in the quadrupedal galloping gait. The results are then evaluated in comparison with the measured data of quadruped animals and the gait mechanisms are clarified from the viewpoint of dynamics, such as the roles of the left-right touchdown angle difference in the generation of galloping gaits and energy transfer during one gait cycle to produce two different galloping gaits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricciuto, Daniel; Sargsyan, Khachik; Thornton, Peter

2018-02-01

We conduct a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELM) to calculate the sensitivity of five key carbon cycle outputs to 68 model parameters. This GSA is conducted by first constructing a Polynomial Chaos (PC) surrogate via new Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing (WIBCS) algorithm for adaptive basis growth leading to a sparse, high-dimensional PC surrogate with 3,000 model evaluations. The PC surrogate allows efficient extraction of GSA information leading to further dimensionality reduction. The GSA is performed at 96 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types (PFTs) and climate conditions. About 20 of the model parameters are identified as sensitive with the rest being relatively insensitive across all outputs and PFTs. These sensitivities are dependent on PFT, and are relatively consistent among sites within the same PFT. The five model outputs have a majority of their highly sensitive parameters in common. A common subset of sensitive parameters is also shared among PFTs, but some parameters are specific to certain types (e.g., deciduous phenology). The relative importance of these parameters shifts significantly among PFTs and with climatic variables such as mean annual temperature.

Utilizing a one-dimensional multispecies model to simulate the nutrient reduction and biomass structure in two types of H2-based membrane-aeration biofilm reactors (H2-MBfR): model development and parametric analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Zuowei; Xia, Siqing; Xu, Xiaoyin; Wang, Chenhui

2016-02-01

In this study, a one-dimensional multispecies model (ODMSM) was utilized to simulate NO3(-)-N and ClO4(-) reduction performances in two kinds of H2-based membrane-aeration biofilm reactors (H2-MBfR) within different operating conditions (e.g., NO3(-)-N/ClO4(-) loading rates, H2 partial pressure, etc.). Before the simulation process, we conducted the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters which would fluctuate in different environmental conditions, then we used the experimental data to calibrate the more sensitive parameters μ1 and μ2 (maximum specific growth rates of denitrification bacteria and perchlorate reduction bacteria) in two H2-MBfRs, and the diversity of the two key parameters' values in two types of reactors may be resulted from the different carbon source fed in the reactors. From the simulation results of six different operating conditions (four in H2-MBfR 1 and two in H2-MBfR 2), the applicability of the model was approved, and the variation of the removal tendency in different operating conditions could be well simulated. Besides, the rationality of operating parameters (H2 partial pressure, etc.) could be judged especially in condition of high nutrients' loading rates. To a certain degree, the model could provide theoretical guidance to determine the operating parameters on some specific conditions in practical application.

National Variation in Crop Yield Production Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Rising, J. A.

2017-12-01

A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the county scale using regional climate covariates is presented in this paper. A new crop specific water deficit index, growing degree days, extreme degree days, and time-trend as an approximation of technology improvements are used as predictors to estimate annual crop yields for each county from 1949 to 2009. Every county in the United States is allowed to have unique parameters describing how these weather predictors are related to yield outcomes. County-specific parameters are further modeled as varying according to climatic characteristics, allowing the prediction of parameters in regions where crops are not currently grown and into the future. The structural relationships between crop yield and regional climate as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All counties are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. The model captures up to 60% of the variability in crop yields after removing the effect of technology, does well in out of sample predictions and is useful in relating the climate responses to local bioclimatic factors. We apply the predicted growing models in a cost-benefit analysis to identify the most economically productive crop in each county.

Use of Linear Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Guide Conditioning of Models Simulating Surface-Water/Groundwater Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.; Doherty, J.

2011-12-01

Linear prediction uncertainty analysis in a Bayesian framework was applied to guide the conditioning of an integrated surface water/groundwater model that will be used to predict the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water and groundwater flows. Linear prediction uncertainty analysis is an effective approach for identifying (1) raw and processed data most effective for model conditioning prior to inversion, (2) specific observations and periods of time critically sensitive to specific predictions, and (3) additional observation data that would reduce model uncertainty relative to specific predictions. We present results for a two-dimensional groundwater model of a 2,186 km2 area of the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida implicitly coupled to a surface-water routing model of the actively managed canal system. The model domain includes 5 municipal well fields withdrawing more than 1 Mm3/day and 17 operable surface-water control structures that control freshwater releases from the Everglades and freshwater discharges to Biscayne Bay. More than 10 years of daily observation data from 35 groundwater wells and 24 surface water gages are available to condition model parameters. A dense parameterization was used to fully characterize the contribution of the inversion null space to predictive uncertainty and included bias-correction parameters. This approach allows better resolution of the boundary between the inversion null space and solution space. Bias-correction parameters (e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and structure flow multipliers) absorb information that is present in structural noise that may otherwise contaminate the estimation of more physically-based model parameters. This allows greater precision in predictions that are entirely solution-space dependent, and reduces the propensity for bias in predictions that are not. Results show that application of this analysis is an effective means of identifying those surface-water and groundwater data, both raw and processed, that minimize predictive uncertainty, while simultaneously identifying the maximum solution-space dimensionality of the inverse problem supported by the data.

The impact of standard and hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes in the Noah-MP land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Samaniego, Luis; Clark, Martyn; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Branch, Oliver; Attinger, Sabine; Thober, Stephan

2016-09-01

Land surface models incorporate a large number of process descriptions, containing a multitude of parameters. These parameters are typically read from tabulated input files. Some of these parameters might be fixed numbers in the computer code though, which hinder model agility during calibration. Here we identified 139 hard-coded parameters in the model code of the Noah land surface model with multiple process options (Noah-MP). We performed a Sobol' global sensitivity analysis of Noah-MP for a specific set of process options, which includes 42 out of the 71 standard parameters and 75 out of the 139 hard-coded parameters. The sensitivities of the hydrologic output fluxes latent heat and total runoff as well as their component fluxes were evaluated at 12 catchments within the United States with very different hydrometeorological regimes. Noah-MP's hydrologic output fluxes are sensitive to two thirds of its applicable standard parameters (i.e., Sobol' indexes above 1%). The most sensitive parameter is, however, a hard-coded value in the formulation of soil surface resistance for direct evaporation, which proved to be oversensitive in other land surface models as well. Surface runoff is sensitive to almost all hard-coded parameters of the snow processes and the meteorological inputs. These parameter sensitivities diminish in total runoff. Assessing these parameters in model calibration would require detailed snow observations or the calculation of hydrologic signatures of the runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff exhibit very similar sensitivities because of their tight coupling via the water balance. A calibration of Noah-MP against either of these fluxes should therefore give comparable results. Moreover, these fluxes are sensitive to both plant and soil parameters. Calibrating, for example, only soil parameters hence limit the ability to derive realistic model parameters. It is thus recommended to include the most sensitive hard-coded model parameters that were exposed in this study when calibrating Noah-MP.

Implementation and comparative analysis of the optimisations produced by evolutionary algorithms for the parameter extraction of PSP MOSFET model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadia, Sarman K.; Thakker, R. A.; Bhatt, Kirit R.

2016-05-01

The study proposes an application of evolutionary algorithms, specifically an artificial bee colony (ABC), variant ABC and particle swarm optimisation (PSO), to extract the parameters of metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) model. These algorithms are applied for the MOSFET parameter extraction problem using a Pennsylvania surface potential model. MOSFET parameter extraction procedures involve reducing the error between measured and modelled data. This study shows that ABC algorithm optimises the parameter values based on intelligent activities of honey bee swarms. Some modifications have also been applied to the basic ABC algorithm. Particle swarm optimisation is a population-based stochastic optimisation method that is based on bird flocking activities. The performances of these algorithms are compared with respect to the quality of the solutions. The simulation results of this study show that the PSO algorithm performs better than the variant ABC and basic ABC algorithm for the parameter extraction of the MOSFET model; also the implementation of the ABC algorithm is shown to be simpler than that of the PSO algorithm.

Essays in energy economics: The electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Chombo, Eduardo

Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and error-correction models with time varying parameters: The Mexican case. In this essay we show how some flexibility can be allowed in modeling the parameters of the electricity demand function by employing the time varying coefficient (TVC) cointegrating model developed by Park and Hahn (1999). With the income elasticity of electricity demand modeled as a TVC, we perform tests to examine the adequacy of the proposed model against the cointegrating regression with fixed coefficients, as well as against the spuriousness of the regression with TVC. The results reject the specification of the model with fixed coefficients and favor the proposed model. We also show how some flexibility is gained in the specification of the error correction model based on the proposed TVC cointegrating model, by including more lags of the error correction term as predetermined variables. Finally, we present the results of some out-of-sample forecast comparison among competing models. Electricity demand and supply in Mexico. In this essay we present a simplified model of the Mexican electricity transmission network. We use the model to approximate the marginal cost of supplying electricity to consumers in different locations and at different times of the year. We examine how costs and system operations will be affected by proposed investments in generation and transmission capacity given a forecast of growth in regional electricity demands. Decomposing electricity prices with jumps. In this essay we propose a model that decomposes electricity prices into two independent stochastic processes: one that represents the "normal" pattern of electricity prices and the other that captures temporary shocks, or "jumps", with non-lasting effects in the market. Each contains specific mean reverting parameters to estimate. In order to identify such components we specify a state-space model with regime switching. Using Kim's (1994) filtering algorithm we estimate the parameters of the model, the transition probabilities and the unobservable components for the mean adjusted series of New South Wales' electricity prices. Finally, bootstrap simulations were performed to estimate the expected contribution of each of the components in the overall electricity prices.

Analysis of the statistical thermodynamic model for nonlinear binary protein adsorption equilibria.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiao-Peng; Su, Xue-Li; Sun, Yan

2007-01-01

The statistical thermodynamic (ST) model was used to study nonlinear binary protein adsorption equilibria on an anion exchanger. Single-component and binary protein adsorption isotherms of bovine hemoglobin (Hb) and bovine serum albumin (BSA) on DEAE Spherodex M were determined by batch adsorption experiments in 10 mM Tris-HCl buffer containing a specific NaCl concentration (0.05, 0.10, and 0.15 M) at pH 7.40. The ST model was found to depict the effect of ionic strength on the single-component equilibria well, with model parameters depending on ionic strength. Moreover, the ST model gave acceptable fitting to the binary adsorption data with the fitted single-component model parameters, leading to the estimation of the binary ST model parameter. The effects of ionic strength on the model parameters are reasonably interpreted by the electrostatic and thermodynamic theories. The effective charge of protein in adsorption phase can be separately calculated from the two categories of the model parameters, and the values obtained from the two methods are consistent. The results demonstrate the utility of the ST model for describing nonlinear binary protein adsorption equilibria.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model: A Dynamic Approach for Predicting Soil Loss on Rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Mariano; Nearing, Mark A.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Pierson, Frederick B.; Armendariz, Gerardo; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Williams, C. Jason; Nouwakpo, Sayjro K.; Goodrich, David C.; Unkrich, Carl L.; Nichols, Mary H.; Holifield Collins, Chandra D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present the improved Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM V2.3), a process-based erosion prediction tool specific for rangeland application. The article provides the mathematical formulation of the model and parameter estimation equations. Model performance is assessed against data collected from 23 runoff and sediment events in a shrub-dominated semiarid watershed in Arizona, USA. To evaluate the model, two sets of primary model parameters were determined using the RHEM V2.3 and RHEM V1.0 parameter estimation equations. Testing of the parameters indicated that RHEM V2.3 parameter estimation equations provided a 76% improvement over RHEM V1.0 parameter estimation equations. Second, the RHEM V2.3 model was calibrated to measurements from the watershed. The parameters estimated by the new equations were within the lowest and highest values of the calibrated parameter set. These results suggest that the new parameter estimation equations can be applied for this environment to predict sediment yield at the hillslope scale. Furthermore, we also applied the RHEM V2.3 to demonstrate the response of the model as a function of foliar cover and ground cover for 124 data points across Arizona and New Mexico. The dependence of average sediment yield on surface ground cover was moderately stronger than that on foliar cover. These results demonstrate that RHEM V2.3 predicts runoff volume, peak runoff, and sediment yield with sufficient accuracy for broad application to assess and manage rangeland systems.

Carbon-13 and proton nuclear magnetic resonance analysis of shale-derived refinery products and jet fuels and of experimental referee broadened-specification jet fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dalling, D. K.; Bailey, B. K.; Pugmire, R. J.

1984-01-01

A proton and carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) study was conducted of Ashland shale oil refinery products, experimental referee broadened-specification jet fuels, and of related isoprenoid model compounds. Supercritical fluid chromatography techniques using carbon dioxide were developed on a preparative scale, so that samples could be quantitatively separated into saturates and aromatic fractions for study by NMR. An optimized average parameter treatment was developed, and the NMR results were analyzed in terms of the resulting average parameters; formulation of model mixtures was demonstrated. Application of novel spectroscopic techniques to fuel samples was investigated.

Subject-specific cardiovascular system model-based identification and diagnosis of septic shock with a minimally invasive data set: animal experiments and proof of concept.

PubMed

Chase, J Geoffrey; Lambermont, Bernard; Starfinger, Christina; Hann, Christopher E; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Ghuysen, Alexandre; Kolh, Philippe; Dauby, Pierre C; Desaive, Thomas

2011-01-01

A cardiovascular system (CVS) model and parameter identification method have previously been validated for identifying different cardiac and circulatory dysfunctions in simulation and using porcine models of pulmonary embolism, hypovolemia with PEEP titrations and induced endotoxic shock. However, these studies required both left and right heart catheters to collect the data required for subject-specific monitoring and diagnosis-a maximally invasive data set in a critical care setting although it does occur in practice. Hence, use of this model-based diagnostic would require significant additional invasive sensors for some subjects, which is unacceptable in some, if not all, cases. The main goal of this study is to prove the concept of using only measurements from one side of the heart (right) in a 'minimal' data set to identify an effective patient-specific model that can capture key clinical trends in endotoxic shock. This research extends existing methods to a reduced and minimal data set requiring only a single catheter and reducing the risk of infection and other complications-a very common, typical situation in critical care patients, particularly after cardiac surgery. The extended methods and assumptions that found it are developed and presented in a case study for the patient-specific parameter identification of pig-specific parameters in an animal model of induced endotoxic shock. This case study is used to define the impact of this minimal data set on the quality and accuracy of the model application for monitoring, detecting and diagnosing septic shock. Six anesthetized healthy pigs weighing 20-30 kg received a 0.5 mg kg(-1) endotoxin infusion over a period of 30 min from T0 to T30. For this research, only right heart measurements were obtained. Errors for the identified model are within 8% when the model is identified from data, re-simulated and then compared to the experimentally measured data, including measurements not used in the identification process for validation. Importantly, all identified parameter trends match physiologically and clinically and experimentally expected changes, indicating that no diagnostic power is lost. This work represents a further with human subjects validation for this model-based approach to cardiovascular diagnosis and therapy guidance in monitoring endotoxic disease states. The results and methods obtained can be readily extended from this case study to the other animal model results presented previously. Overall, these results provide further support for prospective, proof of concept clinical testing with humans.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Event ambiguity fuels the effective spread of rumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Zhang, Yi

2015-08-01

In this paper, a new rumor spreading model which quantifies a specific rumor spreading feature is proposed. The specific feature focused on is the important role the event ambiguity plays in the rumor spreading process. To study the impact of this event ambiguity on the spread of rumors, the probability p(t) that an individual becomes a rumor spreader from an initially unaware person at time t is built. p(t) reflects the extent of event ambiguity, and a parameter c of p(t) is used to measure the speed at which the event moves from ambiguity to confirmation. At the same time, a principle is given to decide on the correct value for parameter c A rumor spreading model is then developed with this function added as a parameter to the traditional model. Then, several rumor spreading model simulations are conducted with different values for c on both regular networks and ER random networks. The simulation results indicate that a rumor spreads faster and more broadly when c is smaller. This shows that if events are ambiguous over a longer time, rumor spreading appears to be more effective, and is influenced more significantly by parameter c in a random network than in a regular network. We then determine parameters of this model through data fitting of the missing Malaysian plane, and apply this model to an analysis of the missing Malaysian plane. The simulation results demonstrate that the most critical time for authorities to control rumor spreading is in the early stages of a critical event.

Developing a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Knowledgebase in Support of Provisional Model Construction - poster

EPA Science Inventory

Building new physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models requires a lot data, such as the chemical-specific parameters and in vivo pharmacokinetic data. Previously-developed, well-parameterized, and thoroughly-vetted models can be great resource for supporting the constr...

Modeling Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Data with a Constrained Local AIF.

PubMed

Duan, Chong; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Pérez-Torres, Carlos J; Bretthorst, G Larry; Beeman, Scott C; Tanderup, Kari; Ackerman, Joseph J H; Garbow, Joel R

2018-02-01

This study aims to develop a constrained local arterial input function (cL-AIF) to improve quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data by accounting for the contrast-agent bolus amplitude error in the voxel-specific AIF. Bayesian probability theory-based parameter estimation and model selection were used to compare tracer kinetic modeling employing either the measured remote-AIF (R-AIF, i.e., the traditional approach) or an inferred cL-AIF against both in silico DCE-MRI data and clinical, cervical cancer DCE-MRI data. When the data model included the cL-AIF, tracer kinetic parameters were correctly estimated from in silico data under contrast-to-noise conditions typical of clinical DCE-MRI experiments. Considering the clinical cervical cancer data, Bayesian model selection was performed for all tumor voxels of the 16 patients (35,602 voxels in total). Among those voxels, a tracer kinetic model that employed the voxel-specific cL-AIF was preferred (i.e., had a higher posterior probability) in 80 % of the voxels compared to the direct use of a single R-AIF. Maps of spatial variation in voxel-specific AIF bolus amplitude and arrival time for heterogeneous tissues, such as cervical cancer, are accessible with the cL-AIF approach. The cL-AIF method, which estimates unique local-AIF amplitude and arrival time for each voxel within the tissue of interest, provides better modeling of DCE-MRI data than the use of a single, measured R-AIF. The Bayesian-based data analysis described herein affords estimates of uncertainties for each model parameter, via posterior probability density functions, and voxel-wise comparison across methods/models, via model selection in data modeling.

DEPOT: A Database of Environmental Parameters, Organizations and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARSON,SUSAN D.; HUNTER,REGINA LEE; MALCZYNSKI,LEONARD A.

2000-12-19

The Database of Environmental Parameters, Organizations, and Tools (DEPOT) has been developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) as a central warehouse for access to data essential for environmental risk assessment analyses. Initial efforts have concentrated on groundwater and vadose zone transport data and bioaccumulation factors. DEPOT seeks to provide a source of referenced data that, wherever possible, includes the level of uncertainty associated with these parameters. Based on the amount of data available for a particular parameter, uncertainty is expressed as a standard deviation or a distribution function. DEPOT also provides DOE site-specific performance assessment data, pathway-specific transport data,more » and links to environmental regulations, disposal site waste acceptance criteria, other environmental parameter databases, and environmental risk assessment models.« less

Basal glycogenolysis in mouse skeletal muscle: in vitro model predicts in vivo fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambeth, Melissa J.; Kushmerick, Martin J.; Marcinek, David J.; Conley, Kevin E.

2002-01-01

A previously published mammalian kinetic model of skeletal muscle glycogenolysis, consisting of literature in vitro parameters, was modified by substituting mouse specific Vmax values. The model demonstrates that glycogen breakdown to lactate is under ATPase control. Our criteria to test whether in vitro parameters could reproduce in vivo dynamics was the ability of the model to fit phosphocreatine (PCr) and inorganic phosphate (Pi) dynamic NMR data from ischemic basal mouse hindlimbs and predict biochemically-assayed lactate concentrations. Fitting was accomplished by optimizing four parameters--the ATPase rate coefficient, fraction of activated glycogen phosphorylase, and the equilibrium constants of creatine kinase and adenylate kinase (due to the absence of pH in the model). The optimized parameter values were physiologically reasonable, the resultant model fit the [PCr] and [Pi] timecourses well, and the model predicted the final measured lactate concentration. This result demonstrates that additional features of in vivo enzyme binding are not necessary for quantitative description of glycogenolytic dynamics.

Influence of parameter values on the oscillation sensitivities of two p53-Mdm2 models.

PubMed

Cuba, Christian E; Valle, Alexander R; Ayala-Charca, Giancarlo; Villota, Elizabeth R; Coronado, Alberto M

2015-09-01

Biomolecular networks that present oscillatory behavior are ubiquitous in nature. While some design principles for robust oscillations have been identified, it is not well understood how these oscillations are affected when the kinetic parameters are constantly changing or are not precisely known, as often occurs in cellular environments. Many models of diverse complexity level, for systems such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle or the p53 network, have been proposed. Here we assess the influence of hundreds of different parameter sets on the sensitivities of two configurations of a well-known oscillatory system, the p53 core network. We show that, for both models and all parameter sets, the parameter related to the p53 positive feedback, i.e. self-promotion, is the only one that presents sizeable sensitivities on extrema, periods and delay. Moreover, varying the parameter set values to change the dynamical characteristics of the response is more restricted in the simple model, whereas the complex model shows greater tunability. These results highlight the importance of the presence of specific network patterns, in addition to the role of parameter values, when we want to characterize oscillatory biochemical systems.

Generic NICA-Donnan model parameters for metal-ion binding by humic substances.

PubMed

Milne, Christopher J; Kinniburgh, David G; van Riemsdijk, Willem H; Tipping, Edward

2003-03-01

A total of 171 datasets of literature and experimental data for metal-ion binding by fulvic and humic acids have been digitized and re-analyzed using the NICA-Donnan model. Generic parameter values have been derived that can be used for modeling in the absence of specific metalion binding measurements. These values complement the previously derived generic descriptions of proton binding. For ions where the ranges of pH, concentration, and ionic strength conditions are well covered by the available data,the generic parameters successfully describe the metalion binding behavior across a very wide range of conditions and for different humic and fulvic acids. Where published data for other metal ions are too sparse to constrain the model well, generic parameters have been estimated by interpolating trends observable in the parameter values of the well-defined data. Recommended generic NICA-Donnan model parameters are provided for 23 metal ions (Al, Am, Ba, Ca, Cd, Cm, Co, CrIII, Cu, Dy, Eu, FeII, FeIII, Hg, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, Thv, UVIO2, VIIIO, and Zn) for both fulvic and humic acids. These parameters probably represent the best NICA-Donnan description of metal-ion binding that can be achieved using existing data.

The Role of Heart-Rate Variability Parameters in Activity Recognition and Energy-Expenditure Estimation Using Wearable Sensors.

PubMed

Park, Heesu; Dong, Suh-Yeon; Lee, Miran; Youn, Inchan

2017-07-24

Human-activity recognition (HAR) and energy-expenditure (EE) estimation are major functions in the mobile healthcare system. Both functions have been investigated for a long time; however, several challenges remain unsolved, such as the confusion between activities and the recognition of energy-consuming activities involving little or no movement. To solve these problems, we propose a novel approach using an accelerometer and electrocardiogram (ECG). First, we collected a database of six activities (sitting, standing, walking, ascending, resting and running) of 13 voluntary participants. We compared the HAR performances of three models with respect to the input data type (with none, all, or some of the heart-rate variability (HRV) parameters). The best recognition performance was 96.35%, which was obtained with some selected HRV parameters. EE was also estimated for different choices of the input data type (with or without HRV parameters) and the model type (single and activity-specific). The best estimation performance was found in the case of the activity-specific model with HRV parameters. Our findings indicate that the use of human physiological data, obtained by wearable sensors, has a significant impact on both HAR and EE estimation, which are crucial functions in the mobile healthcare system.

Relating centrality to impact parameter in nucleus-nucleus collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Sruthy Jyothi; Giacalone, Giuliano; Monard, Pierre-Amaury; Ollitrault, Jean-Yves

2018-01-01

In ultrarelativistic heavy-ion experiments, one estimates the centrality of a collision by using a single observable, say n , typically given by the transverse energy or the number of tracks observed in a dedicated detector. The correlation between n and the impact parameter b of the collision is then inferred by fitting a specific model of the collision dynamics, such as the Glauber model, to experimental data. The goal of this paper is to assess precisely which information about b can be extracted from data without any specific model of the collision. Under the sole assumption that the probability distribution of n for a fixed b is Gaussian, we show that the probability distribution of the impact parameter in a narrow centrality bin can be accurately reconstructed up to 5 % centrality. We apply our methodology to data from the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider. We propose a simple measure of the precision of the centrality determination, which can be used to compare different experiments.

Neurite density from magnetic resonance diffusion measurements at ultrahigh field: Comparison with light microscopy and electron microscopy

PubMed Central

Jespersen, Sune N.; Bjarkam, Carsten R.; Nyengaard, Jens R.; Chakravarty, M. Mallar; Hansen, Brian; Vosegaard, Thomas; Østergaard, Leif; Yablonskiy, Dmitriy; Nielsen, Niels Chr.; Vestergaard-Poulsen, Peter

2010-01-01

Due to its unique sensitivity to tissue microstructure, diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has found many applications in clinical and fundamental science. With few exceptions, a more precise correspondence between physiological or biophysical properties and the obtained diffusion parameters remain uncertain due to lack of specificity. In this work, we address this problem by comparing diffusion parameters of a recently introduced model for water diffusion in brain matter to light microscopy and quantitative electron microscopy. Specifically, we compare diffusion model predictions of neurite density in rats to optical myelin staining intensity and stereological estimation of neurite volume fraction using electron microscopy. We find that the diffusion model describes data better and that its parameters show stronger correlation with optical and electron microscopy, and thus reflect myelinated neurite density better than the more frequently used diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and cumulant expansion methods. Furthermore, the estimated neurite orientations capture dendritic architecture more faithfully than DTI diffusion ellipsoids. PMID:19732836

Neural networks with fuzzy Petri nets for modeling a machining process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, Moheb M.

1998-03-01

The paper presents an intelligent architecture based a feedforward neural network with fuzzy Petri nets for modeling product quality in a CNC machining center. It discusses how the proposed architecture can be used for modeling, monitoring and control a product quality specification such as surface roughness. The surface roughness represents the output quality specification manufactured by a CNC machining center as a result of a milling process. The neural network approach employed the selected input parameters which defined by the machine operator via the CNC code. The fuzzy Petri nets approach utilized the exact input milling parameters, such as spindle speed, feed rate, tool diameter and coolant (off/on), which can be obtained via the machine or sensors system. An aim of the proposed architecture is to model the demanded quality of surface roughness as high, medium or low.

Finite hedging in field theory models of interest rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Srikant, Marakani

2004-03-01

We use path integrals to calculate hedge parameters and efficacy of hedging in a quantum field theory generalization of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Robert Jarrow, David Heath, and Andrew Morton, Econometrica 60, 77 (1992)] term structure model, which parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. We calculate, within the model specification, the effectiveness of hedging over finite periods of time, and obtain the limiting case of instantaneous hedging. We use empirical estimates for the parameters of the model to show that a low-dimensional hedge portfolio is quite effective.

Simple Electrolyzer Model Development for High-Temperature Electrolysis System Analysis Using Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JaeHwa Koh; DuckJoo Yoon; Chang H. Oh

2010-07-01

An electrolyzer model for the analysis of a hydrogen-production system using a solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) has been developed, and the effects for principal parameters have been estimated by sensitivity studies based on the developed model. The main parameters considered are current density, area specific resistance, temperature, pressure, and molar fraction and flow rates in the inlet and outlet. Finally, a simple model for a high-temperature hydrogen-production system using the solid oxide electrolysis cell integrated with very high temperature reactors is estimated.

Voronoi cell patterns: Theoretical model and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Diego Luis; Einstein, T. L.

2011-11-01

We use a simple fragmentation model to describe the statistical behavior of the Voronoi cell patterns generated by a homogeneous and isotropic set of points in 1D and in 2D. In particular, we are interested in the distribution of sizes of these Voronoi cells. Our model is completely defined by two probability distributions in 1D and again in 2D, the probability to add a new point inside an existing cell and the probability that this new point is at a particular position relative to the preexisting point inside this cell. In 1D the first distribution depends on a single parameter while the second distribution is defined through a fragmentation kernel; in 2D both distributions depend on a single parameter. The fragmentation kernel and the control parameters are closely related to the physical properties of the specific system under study. We use our model to describe the Voronoi cell patterns of several systems. Specifically, we study the island nucleation with irreversible attachment, the 1D car-parking problem, the formation of second-level administrative divisions, and the pattern formed by the Paris Métro stations.

Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking

PubMed Central

Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

2016-01-01

We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults’ belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking. PMID:27853440

A computer program (MODFLOWP) for estimating parameters of a transient, three-dimensional ground-water flow model using nonlinear regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary Catherine

1992-01-01

This report documents a new version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular, three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model (MODFLOW) which, with the new Parameter-Estimation Package that also is documented in this report, can be used to estimate parameters by nonlinear regression. The new version of MODFLOW is called MODFLOWP (pronounced MOD-FLOW*P), and functions nearly identically to MODFLOW when the ParameterEstimation Package is not used. Parameters are estimated by minimizing a weighted least-squares objective function by the modified Gauss-Newton method or by a conjugate-direction method. Parameters used to calculate the following MODFLOW model inputs can be estimated: Transmissivity and storage coefficient of confined layers; hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of unconfined layers; vertical leakance; vertical anisotropy (used to calculate vertical leakance); horizontal anisotropy; hydraulic conductance of the River, Streamflow-Routing, General-Head Boundary, and Drain Packages; areal recharge rates; maximum evapotranspiration; pumpage rates; and the hydraulic head at constant-head boundaries. Any spatial variation in parameters can be defined by the user. Data used to estimate parameters can include existing independent estimates of parameter values, observed hydraulic heads or temporal changes in hydraulic heads, and observed gains and losses along head-dependent boundaries (such as streams). Model output includes statistics for analyzing the parameter estimates and the model; these statistics can be used to quantify the reliability of the resulting model, to suggest changes in model construction, and to compare results of models constructed in different ways.

Bayesian Parameter Inference and Model Selection by Population Annealing in Systems Biology

PubMed Central

Murakami, Yohei

2014-01-01

Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named “posterior parameter ensemble”. We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor. PMID:25089832

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Calibrating Estimates of Species Divergence Times

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.

2012-01-01

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account. PMID:22334343

Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO 2 Geological Sequestration

DOE PAGES

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; ...

2012-12-20

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

Recommended direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model parameters for modeling ionized air transport processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly A., E-mail: ksteph@illinois.edu

2016-02-15

A systematic approach for calibrating the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) collision model parameters to achieve consistency in the transport processes is presented. The DSMC collision cross section model parameters are calibrated for high temperature atmospheric conditions by matching the collision integrals from DSMC against ab initio based collision integrals that are currently employed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) high temperature computational fluid dynamics solvers. The DSMC parameter values are computed for the widely used Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) and the Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) models using the collision-specific pairing approach.more » The recommended best-fit VHS/VSS parameter values are provided over a temperature range of 1000-20 000 K for a thirteen-species ionized air mixture. Use of the VSS model is necessary to achieve consistency in transport processes of ionized gases. The agreement of the VSS model transport properties with the transport properties as determined by the ab initio collision integral fits was found to be within 6% in the entire temperature range, regardless of the composition of the mixture. The recommended model parameter values can be readily applied to any gas mixture involving binary collisional interactions between the chemical species presented for the specified temperature range.« less

The Use of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis and Evaluation of Biological Hypotheses in PBPK Models

EPA Science Inventory

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are compartmental models that describe the uptake and distribution of drugs and chemicals throughout the body. They can be structured so that model parameters (i.e., physiological and chemical-specific) reflect biological charac...

Fuzzy Stochastic Petri Nets for Modeling Biological Systems with Uncertain Kinetic Parameters

PubMed Central

Liu, Fei; Heiner, Monika; Yang, Ming

2016-01-01

Stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) have been widely used to model randomness which is an inherent feature of biological systems. However, for many biological systems, some kinetic parameters may be uncertain due to incomplete, vague or missing kinetic data (often called fuzzy uncertainty), or naturally vary, e.g., between different individuals, experimental conditions, etc. (often called variability), which has prevented a wider application of SPNs that require accurate parameters. Considering the strength of fuzzy sets to deal with uncertain information, we apply a specific type of stochastic Petri nets, fuzzy stochastic Petri nets (FSPNs), to model and analyze biological systems with uncertain kinetic parameters. FSPNs combine SPNs and fuzzy sets, thereby taking into account both randomness and fuzziness of biological systems. For a biological system, SPNs model the randomness, while fuzzy sets model kinetic parameters with fuzzy uncertainty or variability by associating each parameter with a fuzzy number instead of a crisp real value. We introduce a simulation-based analysis method for FSPNs to explore the uncertainties of outputs resulting from the uncertainties associated with input parameters, which works equally well for bounded and unbounded models. We illustrate our approach using a yeast polarization model having an infinite state space, which shows the appropriateness of FSPNs in combination with simulation-based analysis for modeling and analyzing biological systems with uncertain information. PMID:26910830

Comparison of retention models for polymers 1. Poly(ethylene glycol)s.

PubMed

Bashir, Mubasher A; Radke, Wolfgang

2006-10-27

The suitability of three different retention models to predict the retention times of poly(ethylene glycol)s (PEGs) in gradient and isocratic chromatography was investigated. The models investigated were the linear (LSSM) and the quadratic solvent strength model (QSSM). In addition, a model describing the retention behaviour of polymers was extended to account for gradient elution (PM). It was found that all models are suited to properly predict gradient retention volumes provided the extraction of the analyte specific parameters is performed from gradient experiments as well. The LSSM and QSSM on principle cannot describe retention behaviour under critical or SEC conditions. Since the PM is designed to cover all three modes of polymer chromatography, it is therefore superior to the other models. However, the determination of the analyte specific parameters, which are needed to calibrate the retention behaviour, strongly depend on the suitable selection of initial experiments. A useful strategy for a purposeful selection of these calibration experiments is proposed.

On the dynamics of a generalized predator-prey system with Z-type control.

PubMed

Lacitignola, Deborah; Diele, Fasma; Marangi, Carmela; Provenzale, Antonello

2016-10-01

We apply the Z-control approach to a generalized predator-prey system and consider the specific case of indirect control of the prey population. We derive the associated Z-controlled model and investigate its properties from the point of view of the dynamical systems theory. The key role of the design parameter λ for the successful application of the method is stressed and related to specific dynamical properties of the Z-controlled model. Critical values of the design parameter are also found, delimiting the λ-range for the effectiveness of the Z-method. Analytical results are then numerically validated by the means of two ecological models: the classical Lotka-Volterra model and a model related to a case study of the wolf-wild boar dynamics in the Alta Murgia National Park. Investigations on these models also highlight how the Z-control method acts in respect to different dynamical regimes of the uncontrolled model. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tribological behaviour predictions of r-GO reinforced Mg composite using ANN coupled Taguchi approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavimani, V.; Prakash, K. Soorya

2017-11-01

This paper deals with the fabrication of reduced graphene oxide (r-GO) reinforced Magnesium Metal Matrix Composite (MMC) through a novel solvent based powder metallurgy route. Investigations over basic and functional properties of developed MMC reveals that addition of r-GO improvises the microhardness upto 64 HV but however decrement in specific wear rate is also notified. Visualization of worn out surfaces through SEM images clearly explains for the occurrence of plastic deformation and the presence of wear debris because of ploughing out action. Taguchi coupled Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is adopted to arrive at optimal values of the input parameters such as load, reinforcement weight percentage, sliding distance and sliding velocity and thereby achieve minimal target output value viz. specific wear rate. Influence of any of the input parameter over specific wear rate studied through ANOVA reveals that load acting on pin has a major influence with 38.85% followed by r-GO wt. % of 25.82%. ANN model developed to predict specific wear rate value based on the variation of input parameter facilitates better predictability with R-value of 98.4% when compared with the outcomes of regression model.

Identification of Cell Type-Specific Differences in Erythropoietin Receptor Signaling in Primary Erythroid and Lung Cancer Cells

PubMed Central

Salopiata, Florian; Depner, Sofia; Wäsch, Marvin; Böhm, Martin E.; Mücke, Oliver; Plass, Christoph; Lehmann, Wolf D.; Kreutz, Clemens; Timmer, Jens; Klingmüller, Ursula

2016-01-01

Lung cancer, with its most prevalent form non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC), is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide, and is commonly treated with chemotherapeutic drugs such as cisplatin. Lung cancer patients frequently suffer from chemotherapy-induced anemia, which can be treated with erythropoietin (EPO). However, studies have indicated that EPO not only promotes erythropoiesis in hematopoietic cells, but may also enhance survival of NSCLC cells. Here, we verified that the NSCLC cell line H838 expresses functional erythropoietin receptors (EPOR) and that treatment with EPO reduces cisplatin-induced apoptosis. To pinpoint differences in EPO-induced survival signaling in erythroid progenitor cells (CFU-E, colony forming unit-erythroid) and H838 cells, we combined mathematical modeling with a method for feature selection, the L1 regularization. Utilizing an example model and simulated data, we demonstrated that this approach enables the accurate identification and quantification of cell type-specific parameters. We applied our strategy to quantitative time-resolved data of EPO-induced JAK/STAT signaling generated by quantitative immunoblotting, mass spectrometry and quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) in CFU-E and H838 cells as well as H838 cells overexpressing human EPOR (H838-HA-hEPOR). The established parsimonious mathematical model was able to simultaneously describe the data sets of CFU-E, H838 and H838-HA-hEPOR cells. Seven cell type-specific parameters were identified that included for example parameters for nuclear translocation of STAT5 and target gene induction. Cell type-specific differences in target gene induction were experimentally validated by qRT-PCR experiments. The systematic identification of pathway differences and sensitivities of EPOR signaling in CFU-E and H838 cells revealed potential targets for intervention to selectively inhibit EPO-induced signaling in the tumor cells but leave the responses in erythroid progenitor cells unaffected. Thus, the proposed modeling strategy can be employed as a general procedure to identify cell type-specific parameters and to recommend treatment strategies for the selective targeting of specific cell types. PMID:27494133

On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olea, Ricardo A., E-mail: olea@usgs.gov

2011-12-15

The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. Themore » beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution.« less

A confidence building exercise in data and identifiability: Modeling cancer chemotherapy as a case study.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Marisa C; Jain, Harsh V

2017-10-27

Mathematical modeling has a long history in the field of cancer therapeutics, and there is increasing recognition that it can help uncover the mechanisms that underlie tumor response to treatment. However, making quantitative predictions with such models often requires parameter estimation from data, raising questions of parameter identifiability and estimability. Even in the case of structural (theoretical) identifiability, imperfect data and the resulting practical unidentifiability of model parameters can make it difficult to infer the desired information, and in some cases, to yield biologically correct inferences and predictions. Here, we examine parameter identifiability and estimability using a case study of two compartmental, ordinary differential equation models of cancer treatment with drugs that are cell cycle-specific (taxol) as well as non-specific (oxaliplatin). We proceed through model building, structural identifiability analysis, parameter estimation, practical identifiability analysis and its biological implications, as well as alternative data collection protocols and experimental designs that render the model identifiable. We use the differential algebra/input-output relationship approach for structural identifiability, and primarily the profile likelihood approach for practical identifiability. Despite the models being structurally identifiable, we show that without consideration of practical identifiability, incorrect cell cycle distributions can be inferred, that would result in suboptimal therapeutic choices. We illustrate the usefulness of estimating practically identifiable combinations (in addition to the more typically considered structurally identifiable combinations) in generating biologically meaningful insights. We also use simulated data to evaluate how the practical identifiability of the model would change under alternative experimental designs. These results highlight the importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms rather than purely using parsimony or information criteria/goodness-of-fit to decide model selection questions. The overall roadmap for identifiability testing laid out here can be used to help provide mechanistic insight into complex biological phenomena, reduce experimental costs, and optimize model-driven experimentation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Is site-specific APEX calibration necessary for field scale BMP assessment?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The possibility of extending parameter sets obtained at one site to sites with similar characteristics is appealing. This study was undertaken to test model performance and compare the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) using three parameters sets obtained from three watersheds when a...

Compartmental analysis of [11C]flumazenil kinetics for the estimation of ligand transport rate and receptor distribution using positron emission tomography.

PubMed

Koeppe, R A; Holthoff, V A; Frey, K A; Kilbourn, M R; Kuhl, D E

1991-09-01

The in vivo kinetic behavior of [11C]flumazenil ([11C]FMZ), a non-subtype-specific central benzodiazepine antagonist, is characterized using compartmental analysis with the aim of producing an optimized data acquisition protocol and tracer kinetic model configuration for the assessment of [11C]FMZ binding to benzodiazepine receptors (BZRs) in human brain. The approach presented is simple, requiring only a single radioligand injection. Dynamic positron emission tomography data were acquired on 18 normal volunteers using a 60- to 90-min sequence of scans and were analyzed with model configurations that included a three-compartment, four-parameter model, a three-compartment, three-parameter model, with a fixed value for free plus nonspecific binding; and a two-compartment, two-parameter model. Statistical analysis indicated that a four-parameter model did not yield significantly better fits than a three-parameter model. Goodness of fit was improved for three- versus two-parameter configurations in regions with low receptor density, but not in regions with moderate to high receptor density. Thus, a two-compartment, two-parameter configuration was found to adequately describe the kinetic behavior of [11C]FMZ in human brain, with stable estimates of the model parameters obtainable from as little as 20-30 min of data. Pixel-by-pixel analysis yields functional images of transport rate (K1) and ligand distribution volume (DV"), and thus provides independent estimates of ligand delivery and BZR binding.

Electromagnetic sunscreen model: design of experiments on particle specifications.

PubMed

Lécureux, Marie; Deumié, Carole; Enoch, Stefan; Sergent, Michelle

2015-10-01

We report a numerical study on sunscreen design and optimization. Thanks to the combined use of electromagnetic modeling and design of experiments, we are able to screen the most relevant parameters of mineral filters and to optimize sunscreens. Several electromagnetic modeling methods are used depending on the type of particles, density of particles, etc. Both the sun protection factor (SPF) and the UVB/UVA ratio are considered. We show that the design of experiments' model should include interactions between materials and other parameters. We conclude that the material of the particles is a key parameter for the SPF and the UVB/UVA ratio. Among the materials considered, none is optimal for both. The SPF is also highly dependent on the size of the particles.

Pairing field methods to improve inference in wildlife surveys while accommodating detection covariance.

PubMed

Clare, John; McKinney, Shawn T; DePue, John E; Loftin, Cynthia S

2017-10-01

It is common to use multiple field sampling methods when implementing wildlife surveys to compare method efficacy or cost efficiency, integrate distinct pieces of information provided by separate methods, or evaluate method-specific biases and misclassification error. Existing models that combine information from multiple field methods or sampling devices permit rigorous comparison of method-specific detection parameters, enable estimation of additional parameters such as false-positive detection probability, and improve occurrence or abundance estimates, but with the assumption that the separate sampling methods produce detections independently of one another. This assumption is tenuous if methods are paired or deployed in close proximity simultaneously, a common practice that reduces the additional effort required to implement multiple methods and reduces the risk that differences between method-specific detection parameters are confounded by other environmental factors. We develop occupancy and spatial capture-recapture models that permit covariance between the detections produced by different methods, use simulation to compare estimator performance of the new models to models assuming independence, and provide an empirical application based on American marten (Martes americana) surveys using paired remote cameras, hair catches, and snow tracking. Simulation results indicate existing models that assume that methods independently detect organisms produce biased parameter estimates and substantially understate estimate uncertainty when this assumption is violated, while our reformulated models are robust to either methodological independence or covariance. Empirical results suggested that remote cameras and snow tracking had comparable probability of detecting present martens, but that snow tracking also produced false-positive marten detections that could potentially substantially bias distribution estimates if not corrected for. Remote cameras detected marten individuals more readily than passive hair catches. Inability to photographically distinguish individual sex did not appear to induce negative bias in camera density estimates; instead, hair catches appeared to produce detection competition between individuals that may have been a source of negative bias. Our model reformulations broaden the range of circumstances in which analyses incorporating multiple sources of information can be robustly used, and our empirical results demonstrate that using multiple field-methods can enhance inferences regarding ecological parameters of interest and improve understanding of how reliably survey methods sample these parameters. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maggioni, V.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Reichle, R. H.

2013-01-01

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Toward a Model-Based Predictive Controller Design in Brain–Computer Interfaces

PubMed Central

Kamrunnahar, M.; Dias, N. S.; Schiff, S. J.

2013-01-01

A first step in designing a robust and optimal model-based predictive controller (MPC) for brain–computer interface (BCI) applications is presented in this article. An MPC has the potential to achieve improved BCI performance compared to the performance achieved by current ad hoc, nonmodel-based filter applications. The parameters in designing the controller were extracted as model-based features from motor imagery task-related human scalp electroencephalography. Although the parameters can be generated from any model-linear or non-linear, we here adopted a simple autoregressive model that has well-established applications in BCI task discriminations. It was shown that the parameters generated for the controller design can as well be used for motor imagery task discriminations with performance (with 8–23% task discrimination errors) comparable to the discrimination performance of the commonly used features such as frequency specific band powers and the AR model parameters directly used. An optimal MPC has significant implications for high performance BCI applications. PMID:21267657

Toward a model-based predictive controller design in brain-computer interfaces.

PubMed

Kamrunnahar, M; Dias, N S; Schiff, S J

2011-05-01

A first step in designing a robust and optimal model-based predictive controller (MPC) for brain-computer interface (BCI) applications is presented in this article. An MPC has the potential to achieve improved BCI performance compared to the performance achieved by current ad hoc, nonmodel-based filter applications. The parameters in designing the controller were extracted as model-based features from motor imagery task-related human scalp electroencephalography. Although the parameters can be generated from any model-linear or non-linear, we here adopted a simple autoregressive model that has well-established applications in BCI task discriminations. It was shown that the parameters generated for the controller design can as well be used for motor imagery task discriminations with performance (with 8-23% task discrimination errors) comparable to the discrimination performance of the commonly used features such as frequency specific band powers and the AR model parameters directly used. An optimal MPC has significant implications for high performance BCI applications.

Component-specific modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcknight, R. L.

1985-01-01

Accomplishments are described for the second year effort of a 3-year program to develop methodology for component specific modeling of aircraft engine hot section components (turbine blades, turbine vanes, and burner liners). These accomplishments include: (1) engine thermodynamic and mission models; (2) geometry model generators; (3) remeshing; (4) specialty 3-D inelastic stuctural analysis; (5) computationally efficient solvers, (6) adaptive solution strategies; (7) engine performance parameters/component response variables decomposition and synthesis; (8) integrated software architecture and development, and (9) validation cases for software developed.

Component-specific modeling. [jet engine hot section components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcknight, R. L.; Maffeo, R. J.; Tipton, M. T.; Weber, G.

1992-01-01

Accomplishments are described for a 3 year program to develop methodology for component-specific modeling of aircraft hot section components (turbine blades, turbine vanes, and burner liners). These accomplishments include: (1) engine thermodynamic and mission models, (2) geometry model generators, (3) remeshing, (4) specialty three-dimensional inelastic structural analysis, (5) computationally efficient solvers, (6) adaptive solution strategies, (7) engine performance parameters/component response variables decomposition and synthesis, (8) integrated software architecture and development, and (9) validation cases for software developed.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of tea catechin mixture in rats and humans.

PubMed

Law, Francis C P; Yao, Meicun; Bi, Hui-Chang; Lam, Stephen

2017-06-01

Although green tea ( Camellia sinensis) (GT) contains a large number of polyphenolic compounds with anti-oxidative and anti-proliferative activities, little is known of the pharmacokinetics and tissue dose of tea catechins (TCs) as a chemical mixture in humans. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of tea catechin mixture (TCM) in rats and humans, and to predict an integrated or total concentration of TCM in the plasma of humans after consuming GT or Polyphenon E (PE). To this end, a PBPK model of epigallocatechin gallate (EGCg) consisting of 13 first-order, blood flow-limited tissue compartments was first developed in rats. The rat model was scaled up to humans by replacing its physiological parameters, pharmacokinetic parameters and tissue/blood partition coefficients (PCs) with human-specific values. Both rat and human EGCg models were then extrapolated to other TCs by substituting its physicochemical parameters, pharmacokinetic parameters, and PCs with catechin-specific values. Finally, a PBPK model of TCM was constructed by linking three rat (or human) tea catechin models together without including a description for pharmacokinetic interaction between the TCs. The mixture PBPK model accurately predicted the pharmacokinetic behaviors of three individual TCs in the plasma of rats and humans after GT or PE consumption. Model-predicted total TCM concentration in the plasma was linearly related to the dose consumed by humans. The mixture PBPK model is able to translate an external dose of TCM into internal target tissue doses for future safety assessment and dose-response analysis studies in humans. The modeling framework as described in this paper is also applicable to the bioactive chemical in other plant-based health products.

A Formal Approach to Empirical Dynamic Model Optimization and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G; Morelli, Eugene A.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2014-01-01

A framework was developed for the optimization and validation of empirical dynamic models subject to an arbitrary set of validation criteria. The validation requirements imposed upon the model, which may involve several sets of input-output data and arbitrary specifications in time and frequency domains, are used to determine if model predictions are within admissible error limits. The parameters of the empirical model are estimated by finding the parameter realization for which the smallest of the margins of requirement compliance is as large as possible. The uncertainty in the value of this estimate is characterized by studying the set of model parameters yielding predictions that comply with all the requirements. Strategies are presented for bounding this set, studying its dependence on admissible prediction error set by the analyst, and evaluating the sensitivity of the model predictions to parameter variations. This information is instrumental in characterizing uncertainty models used for evaluating the dynamic model at operating conditions differing from those used for its identification and validation. A practical example based on the short period dynamics of the F-16 is used for illustration.

Link-topic model for biomedical abbreviation disambiguation.

PubMed

Kim, Seonho; Yoon, Juntae

2015-02-01

The ambiguity of biomedical abbreviations is one of the challenges in biomedical text mining systems. In particular, the handling of term variants and abbreviations without nearby definitions is a critical issue. In this study, we adopt the concepts of topic of document and word link to disambiguate biomedical abbreviations. We newly suggest the link topic model inspired by the latent Dirichlet allocation model, in which each document is perceived as a random mixture of topics, where each topic is characterized by a distribution over words. Thus, the most probable expansions with respect to abbreviations of a given abstract are determined by word-topic, document-topic, and word-link distributions estimated from a document collection through the link topic model. The model allows two distinct modes of word generation to incorporate semantic dependencies among words, particularly long form words of abbreviations and their sentential co-occurring words; a word can be generated either dependently on the long form of the abbreviation or independently. The semantic dependency between two words is defined as a link and a new random parameter for the link is assigned to each word as well as a topic parameter. Because the link status indicates whether the word constitutes a link with a given specific long form, it has the effect of determining whether a word forms a unigram or a skipping/consecutive bigram with respect to the long form. Furthermore, we place a constraint on the model so that a word has the same topic as a specific long form if it is generated in reference to the long form. Consequently, documents are generated from the two hidden parameters, i.e. topic and link, and the most probable expansion of a specific abbreviation is estimated from the parameters. Our model relaxes the bag-of-words assumption of the standard topic model in which the word order is neglected, and it captures a richer structure of text than does the standard topic model by considering unigrams and semantically associated bigrams simultaneously. The addition of semantic links improves the disambiguation accuracy without removing irrelevant contextual words and reduces the parameter space of massive skipping or consecutive bigrams. The link topic model achieves 98.42% disambiguation accuracy on 73,505 MEDLINE abstracts with respect to 21 three letter abbreviations and their 139 distinct long forms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting in-patient falls in a geriatric clinic: a clinical study combining assessment data and simple sensory gait measurements.

PubMed

Marschollek, M; Nemitz, G; Gietzelt, M; Wolf, K H; Meyer Zu Schwabedissen, H; Haux, R

2009-08-01

Falls are among the predominant causes for morbidity and mortality in elderly persons and occur most often in geriatric clinics. Despite several studies that have identified parameters associated with elderly patients' fall risk, prediction models -- e.g., based on geriatric assessment data -- are currently not used on a regular basis. Furthermore, technical aids to objectively assess mobility-associated parameters are currently not used. To assess group differences in clinical as well as common geriatric assessment data and sensory gait measurements between fallers and non-fallers in a geriatric sample, and to derive and compare two prediction models based on assessment data alone (model #1) and added sensory measurement data (model #2). For a sample of n=110 geriatric in-patients (81 women, 29 men) the following fall risk-associated assessments were performed: Timed 'Up & Go' (TUG) test, STRATIFY score and Barthel index. During the TUG test the subjects wore a triaxial accelerometer, and sensory gait parameters were extracted from the data recorded. Group differences between fallers (n=26) and non-fallers (n=84) were compared using Student's t-test. Two classification tree prediction models were computed and compared. Significant differences between the two groups were found for the following parameters: time to complete the TUG test, transfer item (Barthel), recent falls (STRATIFY), pelvic sway while walking and step length. Prediction model #1 (using common assessment data only) showed a sensitivity of 38.5% and a specificity of 97.6%, prediction model #2 (assessment data plus sensory gait parameters) performed with 57.7% and 100%, respectively. Significant differences between fallers and non-fallers among geriatric in-patients can be detected for several assessment subscores as well as parameters recorded by simple accelerometric measurements during a common mobility test. Existing geriatric assessment data may be used for falls prediction on a regular basis. Adding sensory data improves the specificity of our test markedly.

Land-surface parameter optimisation using data assimilation techniques: the adJULES system V1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raoult, Nina M.; Jupp, Tim E.; Cox, Peter M.; Luke, Catherine M.

2016-08-01

Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to make coupled climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. JULES is also extensively used offline as a land-surface impacts tool, forced with climatologies into the future. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated with respect to JULES parameters using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed to search for locally optimum parameters by calibrating against observations. This paper describes adJULES in a data assimilation framework and demonstrates its ability to improve the model-data fit using eddy-covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the five plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES at over 85 % of the sites used in the study, at both the calibration and evaluation stages. The new improved parameters for JULES are presented along with the associated uncertainties for each parameter.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model: A dynamic approach for predicting soil loss on rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study we present the improved Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM V2.3), a process-based erosion prediction tool specific for rangeland application. The article provides the mathematical formulation of the model and parameter estimation equations. Model performance is assessed agains...

Kinetic Modeling of Sunflower Grain Filling and Fatty Acid Biosynthesis

PubMed Central

Durruty, Ignacio; Aguirrezábal, Luis A. N.; Echarte, María M.

2016-01-01

Grain growth and oil biosynthesis are complex processes that involve various enzymes placed in different sub-cellular compartments of the grain. In order to understand the mechanisms controlling grain weight and composition, we need mathematical models capable of simulating the dynamic behavior of the main components of the grain during the grain filling stage. In this paper, we present a non-structured mechanistic kinetic model developed for sunflower grains. The model was first calibrated for sunflower hybrid ACA855. The calibrated model was able to predict the theoretical amount of carbohydrate equivalents allocated to the grain, grain growth and the dynamics of the oil and non-oil fraction, while considering maintenance requirements and leaf senescence. Incorporating into the model the serial-parallel nature of fatty acid biosynthesis permitted a good representation of the kinetics of palmitic, stearic, oleic, and linoleic acids production. A sensitivity analysis showed that the relative influence of input parameters changed along grain development. Grain growth was mostly affected by the specific growth parameter (μ′) while fatty acid composition strongly depended on their own maximum specific rate parameters. The model was successfully applied to two additional hybrids (MG2 and DK3820). The proposed model can be the first building block toward the development of a more sophisticated model, capable of predicting the effects of environmental conditions on grain weight and composition, in a comprehensive and quantitative way. PMID:27242809

Understanding and comparisons of different sampling approaches for the Fourier Amplitudes Sensitivity Test (FAST)

PubMed Central

Xu, Chonggang; Gertner, George

2013-01-01

Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is one of the most popular uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques. It uses a periodic sampling approach and a Fourier transformation to decompose the variance of a model output into partial variances contributed by different model parameters. Until now, the FAST analysis is mainly confined to the estimation of partial variances contributed by the main effects of model parameters, but does not allow for those contributed by specific interactions among parameters. In this paper, we theoretically show that FAST analysis can be used to estimate partial variances contributed by both main effects and interaction effects of model parameters using different sampling approaches (i.e., traditional search-curve based sampling, simple random sampling and random balance design sampling). We also analytically calculate the potential errors and biases in the estimation of partial variances. Hypothesis tests are constructed to reduce the effect of sampling errors on the estimation of partial variances. Our results show that compared to simple random sampling and random balance design sampling, sensitivity indices (ratios of partial variances to variance of a specific model output) estimated by search-curve based sampling generally have higher precision but larger underestimations. Compared to simple random sampling, random balance design sampling generally provides higher estimation precision for partial variances contributed by the main effects of parameters. The theoretical derivation of partial variances contributed by higher-order interactions and the calculation of their corresponding estimation errors in different sampling schemes can help us better understand the FAST method and provide a fundamental basis for FAST applications and further improvements. PMID:24143037

Understanding and comparisons of different sampling approaches for the Fourier Amplitudes Sensitivity Test (FAST).

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Gertner, George

2011-01-01

Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is one of the most popular uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques. It uses a periodic sampling approach and a Fourier transformation to decompose the variance of a model output into partial variances contributed by different model parameters. Until now, the FAST analysis is mainly confined to the estimation of partial variances contributed by the main effects of model parameters, but does not allow for those contributed by specific interactions among parameters. In this paper, we theoretically show that FAST analysis can be used to estimate partial variances contributed by both main effects and interaction effects of model parameters using different sampling approaches (i.e., traditional search-curve based sampling, simple random sampling and random balance design sampling). We also analytically calculate the potential errors and biases in the estimation of partial variances. Hypothesis tests are constructed to reduce the effect of sampling errors on the estimation of partial variances. Our results show that compared to simple random sampling and random balance design sampling, sensitivity indices (ratios of partial variances to variance of a specific model output) estimated by search-curve based sampling generally have higher precision but larger underestimations. Compared to simple random sampling, random balance design sampling generally provides higher estimation precision for partial variances contributed by the main effects of parameters. The theoretical derivation of partial variances contributed by higher-order interactions and the calculation of their corresponding estimation errors in different sampling schemes can help us better understand the FAST method and provide a fundamental basis for FAST applications and further improvements.

The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ricciuto, Daniel; Sargsyan, Khachik; Thornton, Peter

We conduct a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELM) to calculate the sensitivity of five key carbon cycle outputs to 68 model parameters. This GSA is conducted by first constructing a Polynomial Chaos (PC) surrogate via new Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing (WIBCS) algorithm for adaptive basis growth leading to a sparse, high-dimensional PC surrogate with 3,000 model evaluations. The PC surrogate allows efficient extraction of GSA information leading to further dimensionality reduction. The GSA is performed at 96 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types (PFTs) and climate conditions. Aboutmore » 20 of the model parameters are identified as sensitive with the rest being relatively insensitive across all outputs and PFTs. These sensitivities are dependent on PFT, and are relatively consistent among sites within the same PFT. The five model outputs have a majority of their highly sensitive parameters in common. A common subset of sensitive parameters is also shared among PFTs, but some parameters are specific to certain types (e.g., deciduous phenology). In conclusion, the relative importance of these parameters shifts significantly among PFTs and with climatic variables such as mean annual temperature.« less

The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model

DOE PAGES

Ricciuto, Daniel; Sargsyan, Khachik; Thornton, Peter

2018-02-27

We conduct a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELM) to calculate the sensitivity of five key carbon cycle outputs to 68 model parameters. This GSA is conducted by first constructing a Polynomial Chaos (PC) surrogate via new Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing (WIBCS) algorithm for adaptive basis growth leading to a sparse, high-dimensional PC surrogate with 3,000 model evaluations. The PC surrogate allows efficient extraction of GSA information leading to further dimensionality reduction. The GSA is performed at 96 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types (PFTs) and climate conditions. Aboutmore » 20 of the model parameters are identified as sensitive with the rest being relatively insensitive across all outputs and PFTs. These sensitivities are dependent on PFT, and are relatively consistent among sites within the same PFT. The five model outputs have a majority of their highly sensitive parameters in common. A common subset of sensitive parameters is also shared among PFTs, but some parameters are specific to certain types (e.g., deciduous phenology). In conclusion, the relative importance of these parameters shifts significantly among PFTs and with climatic variables such as mean annual temperature.« less

Identifiability of large-scale non-linear dynamic network models applied to the ADM1-case study.

PubMed

Nimmegeers, Philippe; Lauwers, Joost; Telen, Dries; Logist, Filip; Impe, Jan Van

2017-06-01

In this work, both the structural and practical identifiability of the Anaerobic Digestion Model no. 1 (ADM1) is investigated, which serves as a relevant case study of large non-linear dynamic network models. The structural identifiability is investigated using the probabilistic algorithm, adapted to deal with the specifics of the case study (i.e., a large-scale non-linear dynamic system of differential and algebraic equations). The practical identifiability is analyzed using a Monte Carlo parameter estimation procedure for a 'non-informative' and 'informative' experiment, which are heuristically designed. The model structure of ADM1 has been modified by replacing parameters by parameter combinations, to provide a generally locally structurally identifiable version of ADM1. This means that in an idealized theoretical situation, the parameters can be estimated accurately. Furthermore, the generally positive structural identifiability results can be explained from the large number of interconnections between the states in the network structure. This interconnectivity, however, is also observed in the parameter estimates, making uncorrelated parameter estimations in practice difficult. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Model of Objective Weighting for EIA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ying, Long Gen; Liu, You Ci

1995-01-01

In the research of environmental impact assessment (EIA), the problem of weight distribution for a set of parameters has not yet been properly solved. Presents an approach of objective weighting by using a procedure of Pij principal component-factor analysis (Pij PCFA), which suits specifically those parameters measured directly by physical…

Patient-specific musculoskeletal modeling of the hip joint for preoperative planning of total hip arthroplasty: A validation study based on in vivo measurements

PubMed Central

Schick, Fabian; Asseln, Malte; Damm, Philipp; Radermacher, Klaus

2018-01-01

Validation of musculoskeletal models for application in preoperative planning is still a challenging task. Ideally, the simulation results of a patient-specific musculoskeletal model are compared to corresponding in vivo measurements. Currently, the only possibility to measure in vivo joint forces is to implant an instrumented prosthesis in patients undergoing a total joint replacement. In this study, a musculoskeletal model of the AnyBody Modeling System was adapted patient-specifically and validated against the in vivo hip joint force measurements of ten subjects performing one-leg stance and level walking. The impact of four model parameters was evaluated; hip joint width, muscle strength, muscle recruitment, and type of muscle model. The smallest difference between simulated and in vivo hip joint force was achieved by using the hip joint width measured in computed tomography images, a muscle strength of 90 N/cm2, a third order polynomial muscle recruitment, and a simple muscle model. This parameter combination reached mean deviations between simulation and in vivo measurement during the peak force phase of 12% ± 14% in magnitude and 11° ± 5° in orientation for one-leg stance and 8% ± 6% in magnitude and 10° ± 5° in orientation for level walking. PMID:29649235

BluePyOpt: Leveraging Open Source Software and Cloud Infrastructure to Optimise Model Parameters in Neuroscience

PubMed Central

Van Geit, Werner; Gevaert, Michael; Chindemi, Giuseppe; Rössert, Christian; Courcol, Jean-Denis; Muller, Eilif B.; Schürmann, Felix; Segev, Idan; Markram, Henry

2016-01-01

At many scales in neuroscience, appropriate mathematical models take the form of complex dynamical systems. Parameterizing such models to conform to the multitude of available experimental constraints is a global non-linear optimisation problem with a complex fitness landscape, requiring numerical techniques to find suitable approximate solutions. Stochastic optimisation approaches, such as evolutionary algorithms, have been shown to be effective, but often the setting up of such optimisations and the choice of a specific search algorithm and its parameters is non-trivial, requiring domain-specific expertise. Here we describe BluePyOpt, a Python package targeted at the broad neuroscience community to simplify this task. BluePyOpt is an extensible framework for data-driven model parameter optimisation that wraps and standardizes several existing open-source tools. It simplifies the task of creating and sharing these optimisations, and the associated techniques and knowledge. This is achieved by abstracting the optimisation and evaluation tasks into various reusable and flexible discrete elements according to established best-practices. Further, BluePyOpt provides methods for setting up both small- and large-scale optimisations on a variety of platforms, ranging from laptops to Linux clusters and cloud-based compute infrastructures. The versatility of the BluePyOpt framework is demonstrated by working through three representative neuroscience specific use cases. PMID:27375471

Artificial neural network aided non-invasive grading evaluation of hepatic fibrosis by duplex ultrasonography

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely studied for evaluating diseases. This paper discusses the intelligence mode of an ANN in grading the diagnosis of liver fibrosis by duplex ultrasonogaphy. Methods 239 patients who were confirmed as having liver fibrosis or cirrhosis by ultrasound guided liver biopsy were investigated in this study. We quantified ultrasonographic parameters as significant parameters using a data optimization procedure applied to an ANN. 179 patients were typed at random as the training group; 60 additional patients were consequently enrolled as the validating group. Performance of the ANN was evaluated according to accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Youden’s index and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results 5 ultrasonographic parameters; i.e., the liver parenchyma, thickness of spleen, hepatic vein (HV) waveform, hepatic artery pulsatile index (HAPI) and HV damping index (HVDI), were enrolled as the input neurons in the ANN model. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the ANN model for quantitative diagnosis of liver fibrosis were 95.0%, 85.0% and 88.3%, respectively. The Youden’s index (YI) was 0.80. Conclusions The established ANN model had good sensitivity and specificity in quantitative diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis or liver cirrhosis. Our study suggests that the ANN model based on duplex ultrasound may help non-invasive grading diagnosis of liver fibrosis in clinical practice. PMID:22716936

Maximum likelihood estimation of signal detection model parameters for the assessment of two-stage diagnostic strategies.

PubMed

Lirio, R B; Dondériz, I C; Pérez Abalo, M C

1992-08-01

The methodology of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves based on the signal detection model is extended to evaluate the accuracy of two-stage diagnostic strategies. A computer program is developed for the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters that characterize the sensitivity and specificity of two-stage classifiers according to this extended methodology. Its use is briefly illustrated with data collected in a two-stage screening for auditory defects.

Exploring theory space with Monte Carlo reweighting

DOE PAGES

Gainer, James S.; Lykken, Joseph; Matchev, Konstantin T.; ...

2014-10-13

Theories of new physics often involve a large number of unknown parameters which need to be scanned. Additionally, a putative signal in a particular channel may be due to a variety of distinct models of new physics. This makes experimental attempts to constrain the parameter space of motivated new physics models with a high degree of generality quite challenging. We describe how the reweighting of events may allow this challenge to be met, as fully simulated Monte Carlo samples generated for arbitrary benchmark models can be effectively re-used. Specifically, we suggest procedures that allow more efficient collaboration between theorists andmore » experimentalists in exploring large theory parameter spaces in a rigorous way at the LHC.« less

Culture and Social Relationship as Factors of Affecting Communicative Non-verbal Behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhter Lipi, Afia; Nakano, Yukiko; Rehm, Mathias

The goal of this paper is to link a bridge between social relationship and cultural variation to predict conversants' non-verbal behaviors. This idea serves as a basis of establishing a parameter based socio-cultural model, which determines non-verbal expressive parameters that specify the shapes of agent's nonverbal behaviors in HAI. As the first step, a comparative corpus analysis is done for two cultures in two specific social relationships. Next, by integrating the cultural and social parameters factors with the empirical data from corpus analysis, we establish a model that predicts posture. The predictions from our model successfully demonstrate that both cultural background and social relationship moderate communicative non-verbal behaviors.

The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

PubMed

Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

2015-11-01

Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Park, Peter Young-Jin

2008-07-01

Traditionally, transportation safety analysts have used the empirical Bayes (EB) method to improve the estimate of the long-term mean of individual sites; to correct for the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias in before-after studies; and to identify hotspots or high risk locations. The EB method combines two different sources of information: (1) the expected number of crashes estimated via crash prediction models, and (2) the observed number of crashes at individual sites. Crash prediction models have traditionally been estimated using a negative binomial (NB) (or Poisson-gamma) modeling framework due to the over-dispersion commonly found in crash data. A weight factor is used to assign the relative influence of each source of information on the EB estimate. This factor is estimated using the mean and variance functions of the NB model. With recent trends that illustrated the dispersion parameter to be dependent upon the covariates of NB models, especially for traffic flow-only models, as well as varying as a function of different time-periods, there is a need to determine how these models may affect EB estimates. The objectives of this study are to examine how commonly used functional forms as well as fixed and time-varying dispersion parameters affect the EB estimates. To accomplish the study objectives, several traffic flow-only crash prediction models were estimated using a sample of rural three-legged intersections located in California. Two types of aggregated and time-specific models were produced: (1) the traditional NB model with a fixed dispersion parameter and (2) the generalized NB model (GNB) with a time-varying dispersion parameter, which is also dependent upon the covariates of the model. Several statistical methods were used to compare the fitting performance of the various functional forms. The results of the study show that the selection of the functional form of NB models has an important effect on EB estimates both in terms of estimated values, weight factors, and dispersion parameters. Time-specific models with a varying dispersion parameter provide better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF) than aggregated multi-year models. Furthermore, the identification of hazardous sites, using the EB method, can be significantly affected when a GNB model with a time-varying dispersion parameter is used. Thus, erroneously selecting a functional form may lead to select the wrong sites for treatment. The study concludes that transportation safety analysts should not automatically use an existing functional form for modeling motor vehicle crashes without conducting rigorous analyses to estimate the most appropriate functional form linking crashes with traffic flow.

Model studies on the release of aroma compounds from structured and nonstructured oil systems using proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Landy, Pascale; Pollien, Philippe; Rytz, Andreas; Leser, Martin E; Sagalowicz, Laurent; Blank, Imre; Spadone, Jean-Claude

2007-03-07

Relative retention, volatility, and temporal release of volatile compounds taken from aldehyde, ester, and alcohol chemical classes were studied at 70 degrees C in model systems using equilibrium static headspace analysis and real time dynamic headspace analysis. These systems were medium-chain triglycerides (MCT), sunflower oil, and two structured systems, i.e., water-in-oil emulsion and L2 phase (water-in-oil microemulsion). Hydrophilic domains of the emulsion type media retained specifically the hydrophilic compounds and alcohols. Four kinetic parameters characterizing the concentration- and time-dependent releases were extracted from the aroma release curves. Most of the kinetic parameter values were higher in structured systems than in oils particularly when using MCT. The oil nature was found to better control the dynamic release profiles than the system structures. The release parameters were well-related (i) to the volatile hydrophobicity as a function of the oil used and (ii) to the retention data in the specific case of the L2 phase due to a specific release behavior of alcohols.

Specific modes of vibratory technological machines: mathematical models, peculiarities of interaction of system elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Sitov, I. S.; Eliseev, S. V.

2018-03-01

The methodological basis of constructing mathematical models of vibratory technological machines is developed in the article. An approach is proposed that makes it possible to introduce a vibration table in a specific mode that provides conditions for the dynamic damping of oscillations for the zone of placement of a vibration exciter while providing specified vibration parameters in the working zone of the vibration table. The aim of the work is to develop methods of mathematical modeling, oriented to technological processes with long cycles. The technologies of structural mathematical modeling are used with structural schemes, transfer functions and amplitude-frequency characteristics. The concept of the work is to test the possibilities of combining the conditions for reducing loads with working components of a vibration exciter while simultaneously maintaining sufficiently wide limits in variating the parameters of the vibrational field.

Methods of comparing associative models and an application to retrospective revaluation.

PubMed

Witnauer, James E; Hutchings, Ryan; Miller, Ralph R

2017-11-01

Contemporary theories of associative learning are increasingly complex, which necessitates the use of computational methods to reveal predictions of these models. We argue that comparisons across multiple models in terms of goodness of fit to empirical data from experiments often reveal more about the actual mechanisms of learning and behavior than do simulations of only a single model. Such comparisons are best made when the values of free parameters are discovered through some optimization procedure based on the specific data being fit (e.g., hill climbing), so that the comparisons hinge on the psychological mechanisms assumed by each model rather than being biased by using parameters that differ in quality across models with respect to the data being fit. Statistics like the Bayesian information criterion facilitate comparisons among models that have different numbers of free parameters. These issues are examined using retrospective revaluation data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Car-Following Model for Explaining Nonlinear Traffic Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Jianping; Song, Tao; Dong, Liyun; Dai, Shiqiang

There is a common time parameter for representing the sensitivity or the lag (response) time of drivers in many car-following models. In the viewpoint of traffic psychology, this parameter could be considered as the perception-response time (PRT). Generally, this parameter is set to be a constant in previous models. However, PRT is actually not a constant but a random variable described by the lognormal distribution. Thus the probability can be naturally introduced into car-following models by recovering the probability of PRT. For demonstrating this idea, a specific stochastic model is constructed based on the optimal velocity model. By conducting simulations under periodic boundary conditions, it is found that some important traffic phenomena, such as the hysteresis and phantom traffic jams phenomena, can be reproduced more realistically. Especially, an interesting experimental feature of traffic jams, i.e., two moving jams propagating in parallel with constant speed stably and sustainably, is successfully captured by the present model.

Modeling of copper sorption onto GFH and design of full-scale GFH adsorbers.

PubMed

Steiner, Michele; Pronk, Wouter; Boller, Markus A

2006-03-01

During rain events, copper wash-off occurring from copper roofs results in environmental hazards. In this study, columns filled with granulated ferric hydroxide (GFH) were used to treat copper-containing roof runoff. It was shown that copper could be removed to a high extent. A model was developed to describe this removal process. The model was based on the Two Region Model (TRM), extended with an additional diffusion zone. The extended model was able to describe the copper removal in long-term experiments (up to 125 days) with variable flow rates reflecting realistic runoff events. The four parameters of the model were estimated based on data gained with specific column experiments according to maximum sensitivity for each parameter. After model validation, the parameter set was used for the design of full-scale adsorbers. These full-scale adsorbers show high removal rates during extended periods of time.

Understanding identifiability as a crucial step in uncertainty assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakeman, A. J.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Hill, M. C.; Seo, L.

2016-12-01

The topic of identifiability analysis offers concepts and approaches to identify why unique model parameter values cannot be identified, and can suggest possible responses that either increase uniqueness or help to understand the effect of non-uniqueness on predictions. Identifiability analysis typically involves evaluation of the model equations and the parameter estimation process. Non-identifiability can have a number of undesirable effects. In terms of model parameters these effects include: parameters not being estimated uniquely even with ideal data; wildly different values being returned for different initialisations of a parameter optimisation algorithm; and parameters not being physically meaningful in a model attempting to represent a process. This presentation illustrates some of the drastic consequences of ignoring model identifiability analysis. It argues for a more cogent framework and use of identifiability analysis as a way of understanding model limitations and systematically learning about sources of uncertainty and their importance. The presentation specifically distinguishes between five sources of parameter non-uniqueness (and hence uncertainty) within the modelling process, pragmatically capturing key distinctions within existing identifiability literature. It enumerates many of the various approaches discussed in the literature. Admittedly, improving identifiability is often non-trivial. It requires thorough understanding of the cause of non-identifiability, and the time, knowledge and resources to collect or select new data, modify model structures or objective functions, or improve conditioning. But ignoring these problems is not a viable solution. Even simple approaches such as fixing parameter values or naively using a different model structure may have significant impacts on results which are too often overlooked because identifiability analysis is neglected.

Estimation of Enthalpy of Formation of Liquid Transition Metal Alloys: A Modified Prescription Based on Macroscopic Atom Model of Cohesion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, Subramanian; Saibaba, Saroja

2016-09-01

The enthalpy of formation Δo H f is an important thermodynamic quantity, which sheds significant light on fundamental cohesive and structural characteristics of an alloy. However, being a difficult one to determine accurately through experiments, simple estimation procedures are often desirable. In the present study, a modified prescription for estimating Δo H f L of liquid transition metal alloys is outlined, based on the Macroscopic Atom Model of cohesion. This prescription relies on self-consistent estimation of liquid-specific model parameters, namely electronegativity ( ϕ L) and bonding electron density ( n b L ). Such unique identification is made through the use of well-established relationships connecting surface tension, compressibility, and molar volume of a metallic liquid with bonding charge density. The electronegativity is obtained through a consistent linear scaling procedure. The preliminary set of values for ϕ L and n b L , together with other auxiliary model parameters, is subsequently optimized to obtain a good numerical agreement between calculated and experimental values of Δo H f L for sixty liquid transition metal alloys. It is found that, with few exceptions, the use of liquid-specific model parameters in Macroscopic Atom Model yields a physically consistent methodology for reliable estimation of mixing enthalpies of liquid alloys.

The ASMEx snow slab experiment: snow microwave radiative transfer (SMRT) model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandells, Melody; Löwe, Henning; Picard, Ghislain; Dumont, Marie; Essery, Richard; Floury, Nicolas; Kontu, Anna; Lemmetyinen, Juha; Maslanka, William; Mätzler, Christian; Morin, Samuel; Wiesmann, Andreas

2017-04-01

A major uncertainty in snow microwave modelling to date has been the treatment of the snow microstructure. Although observations of microstructural parameters such as the optical grain diameter, specific surface area and correlation length have improved drastically over the last few years, scale factors have been used to derive the parameters needed in microwave emission models from these observations. Previous work has shown that a major difference between electromagnetic models of scattering coefficients is due to the specific snow microstructure models used. The snow microwave radiative transfer model (SMRT) is a new model developed to advance understanding of the role of microstructure and isolate different assumptions in existing microwave models that collectively hinder interpretation of model intercomparison studies. SMRT is implemented in Python and is modular, thus allows switching between different representations in its various components. Here, the role of microstructure is examined with the Improved Born Approximation electromagnetic model. The model is evaluated against scattering and absorption coefficients derived from radiometer measurements of snow slabs taken as part of the Arctic Snow Microstructure Experiment (ASMEx), which took place in Sodankylä, Finland over two seasons. Microtomography observations of slab samples were used to determine parameters for five microstructure models: spherical, exponential, sticky hard sphere, Teubner-Strey and Gaussian random field. SMRT brightness temperature simulations are also compared with radiometric observations of the snow slabs over a reflector plate and an absorber substrate. Agreement between simulations and observations is generally good except for slabs that are highly anisotropic.

On the Complexity of Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Bonifay, Wes; Cai, Li

2017-01-01

Complexity in item response theory (IRT) has traditionally been quantified by simply counting the number of freely estimated parameters in the model. However, complexity is also contingent upon the functional form of the model. We examined four popular IRT models-exploratory factor analytic, bifactor, DINA, and DINO-with different functional forms but the same number of free parameters. In comparison, a simpler (unidimensional 3PL) model was specified such that it had 1 more parameter than the previous models. All models were then evaluated according to the minimum description length principle. Specifically, each model was fit to 1,000 data sets that were randomly and uniformly sampled from the complete data space and then assessed using global and item-level fit and diagnostic measures. The findings revealed that the factor analytic and bifactor models possess a strong tendency to fit any possible data. The unidimensional 3PL model displayed minimal fitting propensity, despite the fact that it included an additional free parameter. The DINA and DINO models did not demonstrate a proclivity to fit any possible data, but they did fit well to distinct data patterns. Applied researchers and psychometricians should therefore consider functional form-and not goodness-of-fit alone-when selecting an IRT model.

Convergence in parameters and predictions using computational experimental design.

PubMed

Hagen, David R; White, Jacob K; Tidor, Bruce

2013-08-06

Typically, biological models fitted to experimental data suffer from significant parameter uncertainty, which can lead to inaccurate or uncertain predictions. One school of thought holds that accurate estimation of the true parameters of a biological system is inherently problematic. Recent work, however, suggests that optimal experimental design techniques can select sets of experiments whose members probe complementary aspects of a biochemical network that together can account for its full behaviour. Here, we implemented an experimental design approach for selecting sets of experiments that constrain parameter uncertainty. We demonstrated with a model of the epidermal growth factor-nerve growth factor pathway that, after synthetically performing a handful of optimal experiments, the uncertainty in all 48 parameters converged below 10 per cent. Furthermore, the fitted parameters converged to their true values with a small error consistent with the residual uncertainty. When untested experimental conditions were simulated with the fitted models, the predicted species concentrations converged to their true values with errors that were consistent with the residual uncertainty. This paper suggests that accurate parameter estimation is achievable with complementary experiments specifically designed for the task, and that the resulting parametrized models are capable of accurate predictions.

Macroscopically constrained Wang-Landau method for systems with multiple order parameters and its application to drawing complex phase diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Brown, G.; Rikvold, P. A.

2017-05-01

A generalized approach to Wang-Landau simulations, macroscopically constrained Wang-Landau, is proposed to simulate the density of states of a system with multiple macroscopic order parameters. The method breaks a multidimensional random-walk process in phase space into many separate, one-dimensional random-walk processes in well-defined subspaces. Each of these random walks is constrained to a different set of values of the macroscopic order parameters. When the multivariable density of states is obtained for one set of values of fieldlike model parameters, the density of states for any other values of these parameters can be obtained by a simple transformation of the total system energy. All thermodynamic quantities of the system can then be rapidly calculated at any point in the phase diagram. We demonstrate how to use the multivariable density of states to draw the phase diagram, as well as order-parameter probability distributions at specific phase points, for a model spin-crossover material: an antiferromagnetic Ising model with ferromagnetic long-range interactions. The fieldlike parameters in this model are an effective magnetic field and the strength of the long-range interaction.

Dynamic Modeling of Cell-Free Biochemical Networks Using Effective Kinetic Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-03

whether we could simultaneously estimate kinetic parameters and regulatory connectivity, in the absence of specific mechanistic knowledge , from synthetic...that manage metabolism. Of course, these issues are not independent; any description of enzyme activity regulation will be a function of system state...the absence of specific mechanistic knowledge , from synthetic experimental data. Toward these questions, we explored five hypothetical cell-free

A Bayesian state-space formulation of dynamic occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, M.

2007-01-01

Species occurrence and its dynamic components, extinction and colonization probabilities, are focal quantities in biogeography and metapopulation biology, and for species conservation assessments. It has been increasingly appreciated that these parameters must be estimated separately from detection probability to avoid the biases induced by nondetection error. Hence, there is now considerable theoretical and practical interest in dynamic occupancy models that contain explicit representations of metapopulation dynamics such as extinction, colonization, and turnover as well as growth rates. We describe a hierarchical parameterization of these models that is analogous to the state-space formulation of models in time series, where the model is represented by two components, one for the partially observable occupancy process and another for the observations conditional on that process. This parameterization naturally allows estimation of all parameters of the conventional approach to occupancy models, but in addition, yields great flexibility and extensibility, e.g., to modeling heterogeneity or latent structure in model parameters. We also highlight the important distinction between population and finite sample inference; the latter yields much more precise estimates for the particular sample at hand. Finite sample estimates can easily be obtained using the state-space representation of the model but are difficult to obtain under the conventional approach of likelihood-based estimation. We use R and Win BUGS to apply the model to two examples. In a standard analysis for the European Crossbill in a large Swiss monitoring program, we fit a model with year-specific parameters. Estimates of the dynamic parameters varied greatly among years, highlighting the irruptive population dynamics of that species. In the second example, we analyze route occupancy of Cerulean Warblers in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a model allowing for site-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. The results indicate relatively low turnover and a stable distribution of Cerulean Warblers which is in contrast to analyses of counts of individuals from the same survey that indicate important declines. This discrepancy illustrates the inertia in occupancy relative to actual abundance. Furthermore, the model reveals a declining patch survival probability, and increasing turnover, toward the edge of the range of the species, which is consistent with metapopulation perspectives on the genesis of range edges. Given detection/non-detection data, dynamic occupancy models as described here have considerable potential for the study of distributions and range dynamics.

Predicting human chronically paralyzed muscle force: a comparison of three mathematical models.

PubMed

Frey Law, Laura A; Shields, Richard K

2006-03-01

Chronic spinal cord injury (SCI) induces detrimental musculoskeletal adaptations that adversely affect health status, ranging from muscle paralysis and skin ulcerations to osteoporosis. SCI rehabilitative efforts may increasingly focus on preserving the integrity of paralyzed extremities to maximize health quality using electrical stimulation for isometric training and/or functional activities. Subject-specific mathematical muscle models could prove valuable for predicting the forces necessary to achieve therapeutic loading conditions in individuals with paralyzed limbs. Although numerous muscle models are available, three modeling approaches were chosen that can accommodate a variety of stimulation input patterns. To our knowledge, no direct comparisons between models using paralyzed muscle have been reported. The three models include 1) a simple second-order linear model with three parameters and 2) two six-parameter nonlinear models (a second-order nonlinear model and a Hill-derived nonlinear model). Soleus muscle forces from four individuals with complete, chronic SCI were used to optimize each model's parameters (using an increasing and decreasing frequency ramp) and to assess the models' predictive accuracies for constant and variable (doublet) stimulation trains at 5, 10, and 20 Hz in each individual. Despite the large differences in modeling approaches, the mean predicted force errors differed only moderately (8-15% error; P=0.0042), suggesting physiological force can be adequately represented by multiple mathematical constructs. The two nonlinear models predicted specific force characteristics better than the linear model in nearly all stimulation conditions, with minimal differences between the two nonlinear models. Either nonlinear mathematical model can provide reasonable force estimates; individual application needs may dictate the preferred modeling strategy.

A Simulation Modeling Approach Method Focused on the Refrigerated Warehouses Using Design of Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, G. S.

2017-09-01

For performance optimization of Refrigerated Warehouses, design parameters are selected based on the physical parameters such as number of equipment and aisles, speeds of forklift for ease of modification. This paper provides a comprehensive framework approach for the system design of Refrigerated Warehouses. We propose a modeling approach which aims at the simulation optimization so as to meet required design specifications using the Design of Experiment (DOE) and analyze a simulation model using integrated aspect-oriented modeling approach (i-AOMA). As a result, this suggested method can evaluate the performance of a variety of Refrigerated Warehouses operations.

Latent transition models with latent class predictors: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder subtypes and high school marijuana use

PubMed Central

Reboussin, Beth A.; Ialongo, Nicholas S.

2011-01-01

Summary Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder which is most often diagnosed in childhood with symptoms often persisting into adulthood. Elevated rates of substance use disorders have been evidenced among those with ADHD, but recent research focusing on the relationship between subtypes of ADHD and specific drugs is inconsistent. We propose a latent transition model (LTM) to guide our understanding of how drug use progresses, in particular marijuana use, while accounting for the measurement error that is often found in self-reported substance use data. We extend the LTM to include a latent class predictor to represent empirically derived ADHD subtypes that do not rely on meeting specific diagnostic criteria. We begin by fitting two separate latent class analysis (LCA) models by using second-order estimating equations: a longitudinal LCA model to define stages of marijuana use, and a cross-sectional LCA model to define ADHD subtypes. The LTM model parameters describing the probability of transitioning between the LCA-defined stages of marijuana use and the influence of the LCA-defined ADHD subtypes on these transition rates are then estimated by using a set of first-order estimating equations given the LCA parameter estimates. A robust estimate of the LTM parameter variance that accounts for the variation due to the estimation of the two sets of LCA parameters is proposed. Solving three sets of estimating equations enables us to determine the underlying latent class structures independently of the model for the transition rates and simplifying assumptions about the correlation structure at each stage reduces the computational complexity. PMID:21461139

Genetic algorithm applied to a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere system: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Sébastien; Jacques, Diederik; Mallants, Dirk

2010-05-01

Numerical models are of precious help for predicting water fluxes in the vadose zone and more specifically in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere (SVA) systems. For such simulations, robust models and representative soil hydraulic parameters are required. Calibration of unsaturated hydraulic properties is known to be a difficult optimization problem due to the high non-linearity of the water flow equations. Therefore, robust methods are needed to avoid the optimization process to lead to non-optimal parameters. Evolutionary algorithms and specifically genetic algorithms (GAs) are very well suited for those complex parameter optimization problems. Additionally, GAs offer the opportunity to assess the confidence in the hydraulic parameter estimations, because of the large number of model realizations. The SVA system in this study concerns a pine stand on a heterogeneous sandy soil (podzol) in the Campine region in the north of Belgium. Throughfall and other meteorological data and water contents at different soil depths have been recorded during one year at a daily time step in two lysimeters. The water table level, which is varying between 95 and 170 cm, has been recorded with intervals of 0.5 hour. The leaf area index was measured as well at some selected time moments during the year in order to evaluate the energy which reaches the soil and to deduce the potential evaporation. Water contents at several depths have been recorded. Based on the profile description, five soil layers have been distinguished in the podzol. Two models have been used for simulating water fluxes: (i) a mechanistic model, the HYDRUS-1D model, which solves the Richards' equation, and (ii) a compartmental model, which treats the soil profile as a bucket into which water flows until its maximum capacity is reached. A global sensitivity analysis (Morris' one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis) was run previously to the calibration, in order to check the sensitivity in the chosen parameter search space. For the inversion procedure a genetical algorithm (GA) was used. Specific features such as elitism, roulette-wheel process for selection operator and island theory were implemented. Optimization was based on the water content measurements recorded at several depths. Ten scenarios have been elaborated and applied on the two lysimeters in order to investigate the impact of the conceptual model in terms of processes description (mechanistic or compartmental) and geometry (number of horizons in the profile description) on the calibration accuracy. Calibration leads to a good agreement with the measured water contents. The most critical parameters for improving the goodness of fit are the number of horizons and the type of process description. Best fit are found for a mechanistic model with 5 horizons resulting in absolute differences between observed and simulated water contents less than 0.02 cm3cm-3 in average. Parameter estimate analysis shows that layers thicknesses are poorly constrained whereas hydraulic parameters are much well defined.

Is it the time to rethink clinical decision-making strategies? From a single clinical outcome evaluation to a Clinical Multi-criteria Decision Assessment (CMDA).

PubMed

Migliore, Alberto; Integlia, Davide; Bizzi, Emanuele; Piaggio, Tomaso

2015-10-01

There are plenty of different clinical, organizational and economic parameters to consider in order having a complete assessment of the total impact of a pharmaceutical treatment. In the attempt to follow, a holistic approach aimed to provide an evaluation embracing all clinical parameters in order to choose the best treatments, it is necessary to compare and weight multiple criteria. Therefore, a change is required: we need to move from a decision-making context based on the assessment of one single criteria towards a transparent and systematic framework enabling decision makers to assess all relevant parameters simultaneously in order to choose the best treatment to use. In order to apply the MCDA methodology to clinical decision making the best pharmaceutical treatment (or medical devices) to use to treat a specific pathology, we suggest a specific application of the Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for the purpose, like a Clinical Multi-criteria Decision Assessment CMDA. In CMDA, results from both meta-analysis and observational studies are used by a clinical consensus after attributing weights to specific domains and related parameters. The decision will result from a related comparison of all consequences (i.e., efficacy, safety, adherence, administration route) existing behind the choice to use a specific pharmacological treatment. The match will yield a score (in absolute value) that link each parameter with a specific intervention, and then a final score for each treatment. The higher is the final score; the most appropriate is the intervention to treat disease considering all criteria (domain an parameters). The results will allow the physician to evaluate the best clinical treatment for his patients considering at the same time all relevant criteria such as clinical effectiveness for all parameters and administration route. The use of CMDA model will yield a clear and complete indication of the best pharmaceutical treatment to use for patients, helping physicians to choose drugs with a complete set of information, imputed in the model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing household health expenditure with Box-Cox censoring models.

PubMed

Chaze, Jean-Paul

2005-09-01

In order to assess the combined presence of zero expenditures and a heavily skewed distribution of positive expenditures, the Box-Cox transformation with location parameter is used to define a set of models generalising the standard Tobit, Heckman selection and double-hurdle models. Extended flexibility with respect to previous specifications is introduced, notably regarding negative transformation parameters, which may prove necessary for medical expenditures, and corner-solution outcomes. An illustration is provided by the analysis of household health expenditure in Switzerland. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A SIMPLE MODEL FOR THE UPTAKE, TRANSLOCATION, AND ACCUMULATION OF PERCHLORATE IN TOBACCO PLANTS

EPA Science Inventory

A simple mathematical model is being developed to describe the uptake, translocation, and accumulation of perchlorate in tobacco plants. The model defines a plant as a set of compartments, consisting of mass balance differential equations and plant-specific physiological paramet...

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to explore potential metabolic pathways of bromochloromethane in rats.

EPA Science Inventory

Bromochloromethane (BCM) is a volatile organic compound and a by-product of disinfection of water by chlorination. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are used in risk assessment applications and a PBPK model for BCM, Updated with F-344 specific input parameters,...

Modelling of subject specific based segmental dynamics of knee joint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, N. H. M.; Ibrahim, B. S. K. K.; Huq, M. S.; Ahmad, M. K. I.

2017-09-01

This study determines segmental dynamics parameters based on subject specific method. Five hemiplegic patients participated in the study, two men and three women. Their ages ranged from 50 to 60 years, weights from 60 to 70 kg and heights from 145 to 170 cm. Sample group included patients with different side of stroke. The parameters of the segmental dynamics resembling the knee joint functions measured via measurement of Winter and its model generated via the employment Kane's equation of motion. Inertial parameters in the form of the anthropometry can be identified and measured by employing Standard Human Dimension on the subjects who are in hemiplegia condition. The inertial parameters are the location of centre of mass (COM) at the length of the limb segment, inertia moment around the COM and masses of shank and foot to generate accurate motion equations. This investigation has also managed to dig out a few advantages of employing the table of anthropometry in movement biomechanics of Winter's and Kane's equation of motion. A general procedure is presented to yield accurate measurement of estimation for the inertial parameters for the joint of the knee of certain subjects with stroke history.

Sensitivity of the model error parameter specification in weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Jeremy A.; Daescu, Dacian N.

2017-08-01

This article presents the mathematical framework to evaluate the sensitivity of a forecast error aspect to the input parameters of a weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (w4D-Var DAS), extending the established theory from strong-constraint 4D-Var. Emphasis is placed on the derivation of the equations for evaluating the forecast sensitivity to parameters in the DAS representation of the model error statistics, including bias, standard deviation, and correlation structure. A novel adjoint-based procedure for adaptive tuning of the specified model error covariance matrix is introduced. Results from numerical convergence tests establish the validity of the model error sensitivity equations. Preliminary experiments providing a proof-of-concept are performed using the Lorenz multi-scale model to illustrate the theoretical concepts and potential benefits for practical applications.

Methodology for modeling the devolatilization of refuse-derived fuel from thermogravimetric analysis of municipal solid waste components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fritsky, K.J.; Miller, D.L.; Cernansky, N.P.

1994-09-01

A methodology was introduced for modeling the devolatilization characteristics of refuse-derived fuel (RFD) in terms of temperature-dependent weight loss. The basic premise of the methodology is that RDF is modeled as a combination of select municipal solid waste (MSW) components. Kinetic parameters are derived for each component from thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) data measured at a specific set of conditions. These experimentally derived parameters, along with user-derived parameters, are inputted to model equations for the purpose of calculating thermograms for the components. The component thermograms are summed to create a composite thermogram that is an estimate of the devolatilization for themore » as-modeled RFD. The methodology has several attractive features as a thermal analysis tool for waste fuels. 7 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.« less

High correlation of double Debye model parameters in skin cancer detection.

PubMed

Truong, Bao C Q; Tuan, H D; Fitzgerald, Anthony J; Wallace, Vincent P; Nguyen, H T

2014-01-01

The double Debye model can be used to capture the dielectric response of human skin in terahertz regime due to high water content in the tissue. The increased water proportion is widely considered as a biomarker of carcinogenesis, which gives rise of using this model in skin cancer detection. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to provide a specific analysis of the double Debye parameters in terms of non-melanoma skin cancer classification. Pearson correlation is applied to investigate the sensitivity of these parameters and their combinations to the variation in tumor percentage of skin samples. The most sensitive parameters are then assessed by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot to confirm their potential of classifying tumor from normal skin. Our positive outcomes support further steps to clinical application of terahertz imaging in skin cancer delineation.

Apparatus for sensor failure detection and correction in a gas turbine engine control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spang, H. A., III; Wanger, R. P. (Inventor)

1981-01-01

A gas turbine engine control system maintains a selected level of engine performance despite the failure or abnormal operation of one or more engine parameter sensors. The control system employs a continuously updated engine model which simulates engine performance and generates signals representing real time estimates of the engine parameter sensor signals. The estimate signals are transmitted to a control computational unit which utilizes them in lieu of the actual engine parameter sensor signals to control the operation of the engine. The estimate signals are also compared with the corresponding actual engine parameter sensor signals and the resulting difference signals are utilized to update the engine model. If a particular difference signal exceeds specific tolerance limits, the difference signal is inhibited from updating the model and a sensor failure indication is provided to the engine operator.

Tradeoffs among watershed model calibration targets for parameter estimation

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic models are commonly calibrated by optimizing a single objective function target to compare simulated and observed flows, although individual targets are influenced by specific flow modes. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) emphasizes flood peaks in evaluating simulation f...

Automatic Calibration of a Semi-Distributed Hydrologic Model Using Particle Swarm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekele, E. G.; Nicklow, J. W.

2005-12-01

Hydrologic simulation models need to be calibrated and validated before using them for operational predictions. Spatially-distributed hydrologic models generally have a large number of parameters to capture the various physical characteristics of a hydrologic system. Manual calibration of such models is a very tedious and daunting task, and its success depends on the subjective assessment of a particular modeler, which includes knowledge of the basic approaches and interactions in the model. In order to alleviate these shortcomings, an automatic calibration model, which employs an evolutionary optimization technique known as Particle Swarm Optimizer (PSO) for parameter estimation, is developed. PSO is a heuristic search algorithm that is inspired by social behavior of bird flocking or fish schooling. The newly-developed calibration model is integrated to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a physically-based, semi-distributed hydrologic model that was developed to predict the long term impacts of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use, and management conditions. SWAT was calibrated for streamflow and sediment concentration. The calibration process involves parameter specification, whereby sensitive model parameters are identified, and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the number of parameters to be calibrated, parameterization was performed. The methodology is applied to a demonstration watershed known as Big Creek, which is located in southern Illinois. Application results show the effectiveness of the approach and model predictions are significantly improved.

Validation of a mathematical model of the bovine estrous cycle for cows with different estrous cycle characteristics.

PubMed

Boer, H M T; Butler, S T; Stötzel, C; Te Pas, M F W; Veerkamp, R F; Woelders, H

2017-11-01

A recently developed mechanistic mathematical model of the bovine estrous cycle was parameterized to fit empirical data sets collected during one estrous cycle of 31 individual cows, with the main objective to further validate the model. The a priori criteria for validation were (1) the resulting model can simulate the measured data correctly (i.e. goodness of fit), and (2) this is achieved without needing extreme, probably non-physiological parameter values. We used a least squares optimization procedure to identify parameter configurations for the mathematical model to fit the empirical in vivo measurements of follicle and corpus luteum sizes, and the plasma concentrations of progesterone, estradiol, FSH and LH for each cow. The model was capable of accommodating normal variation in estrous cycle characteristics of individual cows. With the parameter sets estimated for the individual cows, the model behavior changed for 21 cows, with improved fit of the simulated output curves for 18 of these 21 cows. Moreover, the number of follicular waves was predicted correctly for 18 of the 25 two-wave and three-wave cows, without extreme parameter value changes. Estimation of specific parameters confirmed results of previous model simulations indicating that parameters involved in luteolytic signaling are very important for regulation of general estrous cycle characteristics, and are likely responsible for differences in estrous cycle characteristics between cows.

Application of Bayesian population physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to pesticide kinetics studies in protected marine mammals: DDT, DDE, and DDD in harbor porpoises.

PubMed

Weijs, Liesbeth; Yang, Raymond S H; Das, Krishna; Covaci, Adrian; Blust, Ronny

2013-05-07

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling in marine mammals is a challenge because of the lack of parameter information and the ban on exposure experiments. To minimize uncertainty and variability, parameter estimation methods are required for the development of reliable PBPK models. The present study is the first to develop PBPK models for the lifetime bioaccumulation of p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE, and p,p'-DDD in harbor porpoises. In addition, this study is also the first to apply the Bayesian approach executed with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations using two data sets of harbor porpoises from the Black and North Seas. Parameters from the literature were used as priors for the first "model update" using the Black Sea data set, the resulting posterior parameters were then used as priors for the second "model update" using the North Sea data set. As such, PBPK models with parameters specific for harbor porpoises could be strengthened with more robust probability distributions. As the science and biomonitoring effort progress in this area, more data sets will become available to further strengthen and update the parameters in the PBPK models for harbor porpoises as a species anywhere in the world. Further, such an approach could very well be extended to other protected marine mammals.

Two-part models with stochastic processes for modelling longitudinal semicontinuous data: Computationally efficient inference and modelling the overall marginal mean.

PubMed

Yiu, Sean; Tom, Brian Dm

2017-01-01

Several researchers have described two-part models with patient-specific stochastic processes for analysing longitudinal semicontinuous data. In theory, such models can offer greater flexibility than the standard two-part model with patient-specific random effects. However, in practice, the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood (i.e. integrated over the stochastic processes) significantly complicates model fitting. Thus, non-standard computationally intensive procedures based on simulating the marginal likelihood have so far only been proposed. In this paper, we describe an efficient method of implementation by demonstrating how the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood can be computed efficiently. Specifically, by using a property of the multivariate normal distribution and the standard marginal cumulative distribution function identity, we transform the marginal likelihood so that the high dimensional integrations are contained in the cumulative distribution function of a multivariate normal distribution, which can then be efficiently evaluated. Hence, maximum likelihood estimation can be used to obtain parameter estimates and asymptotic standard errors (from the observed information matrix) of model parameters. We describe our proposed efficient implementation procedure for the standard two-part model parameterisation and when it is of interest to directly model the overall marginal mean. The methodology is applied on a psoriatic arthritis data set concerning functional disability.

Data-Adaptive Bias-Reduced Doubly Robust Estimation.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Karel; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2016-05-01

Doubly robust estimators have now been proposed for a variety of target parameters in the causal inference and missing data literature. These consistently estimate the parameter of interest under a semiparametric model when one of two nuisance working models is correctly specified, regardless of which. The recently proposed bias-reduced doubly robust estimation procedure aims to partially retain this robustness in more realistic settings where both working models are misspecified. These so-called bias-reduced doubly robust estimators make use of special (finite-dimensional) nuisance parameter estimators that are designed to locally minimize the squared asymptotic bias of the doubly robust estimator in certain directions of these finite-dimensional nuisance parameters under misspecification of both parametric working models. In this article, we extend this idea to incorporate the use of data-adaptive estimators (infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters), by exploiting the bias reduction estimation principle in the direction of only one nuisance parameter. We additionally provide an asymptotic linearity theorem which gives the influence function of the proposed doubly robust estimator under correct specification of a parametric nuisance working model for the missingness mechanism/propensity score but a possibly misspecified (finite- or infinite-dimensional) outcome working model. Simulation studies confirm the desirable finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators relative to a variety of other doubly robust estimators.

A generalized methodology to characterize composite materials for pyrolysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinnon, Mark B.

The predictive capabilities of computational fire models have improved in recent years such that models have become an integral part of many research efforts. Models improve the understanding of the fire risk of materials and may decrease the number of expensive experiments required to assess the fire hazard of a specific material or designed space. A critical component of a predictive fire model is the pyrolysis sub-model that provides a mathematical representation of the rate of gaseous fuel production from condensed phase fuels given a heat flux incident to the material surface. The modern, comprehensive pyrolysis sub-models that are common today require the definition of many model parameters to accurately represent the physical description of materials that are ubiquitous in the built environment. Coupled with the increase in the number of parameters required to accurately represent the pyrolysis of materials is the increasing prevalence in the built environment of engineered composite materials that have never been measured or modeled. The motivation behind this project is to develop a systematic, generalized methodology to determine the requisite parameters to generate pyrolysis models with predictive capabilities for layered composite materials that are common in industrial and commercial applications. This methodology has been applied to four common composites in this work that exhibit a range of material structures and component materials. The methodology utilizes a multi-scale experimental approach in which each test is designed to isolate and determine a specific subset of the parameters required to define a material in the model. Data collected in simultaneous thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the reaction kinetics, thermodynamic properties, and energetics of decomposition for each component of the composite. Data collected in microscale combustion calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the heats of complete combustion of the volatiles produced in each reaction. Inverse analyses were conducted on sample temperature data collected in bench-scale tests to determine the thermal transport parameters of each component through degradation. Simulations of quasi-one-dimensional bench-scale gasification tests generated from the resultant models using the ThermaKin modeling environment were compared to experimental data to independently validate the models.

Approximate Bayesian computation in large-scale structure: constraining the galaxy-halo connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahn, ChangHoon; Vakili, Mohammadjavad; Walsh, Kilian; Hearin, Andrew P.; Hogg, David W.; Campbell, Duncan

2017-08-01

Standard approaches to Bayesian parameter inference in large-scale structure assume a Gaussian functional form (chi-squared form) for the likelihood. This assumption, in detail, cannot be correct. Likelihood free inferences such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) relax these restrictions and make inference possible without making any assumptions on the likelihood. Instead ABC relies on a forward generative model of the data and a metric for measuring the distance between the model and data. In this work, we demonstrate that ABC is feasible for LSS parameter inference by using it to constrain parameters of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) model for populating dark matter haloes with galaxies. Using specific implementation of ABC supplemented with population Monte Carlo importance sampling, a generative forward model using HOD and a distance metric based on galaxy number density, two-point correlation function and galaxy group multiplicity function, we constrain the HOD parameters of mock observation generated from selected 'true' HOD parameters. The parameter constraints we obtain from ABC are consistent with the 'true' HOD parameters, demonstrating that ABC can be reliably used for parameter inference in LSS. Furthermore, we compare our ABC constraints to constraints we obtain using a pseudo-likelihood function of Gaussian form with MCMC and find consistent HOD parameter constraints. Ultimately, our results suggest that ABC can and should be applied in parameter inference for LSS analyses.

A multi-objective approach to improve SWAT model calibration in alpine catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuo, Ye; Marcolini, Giorgia; Disse, Markus; Chiogna, Gabriele

2018-04-01

Multi-objective hydrological model calibration can represent a valuable solution to reduce model equifinality and parameter uncertainty. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely applied to investigate water quality and water management issues in alpine catchments. However, the model calibration is generally based on discharge records only, and most of the previous studies have defined a unique set of snow parameters for an entire basin. Only a few studies have considered snow observations to validate model results or have taken into account the possible variability of snow parameters for different subbasins. This work presents and compares three possible calibration approaches. The first two procedures are single-objective calibration procedures, for which all parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated according to river discharge alone. Procedures I and II differ from each other by the assumption used to define snow parameters: The first approach assigned a unique set of snow parameters to the entire basin, whereas the second approach assigned different subbasin-specific sets of snow parameters to each subbasin. The third procedure is a multi-objective calibration, in which we considered snow water equivalent (SWE) information at two different spatial scales (i.e. subbasin and elevation band), in addition to discharge measurements. We tested these approaches in the Upper Adige river basin where a dense network of snow depth measurement stations is available. Only the set of parameters obtained with this multi-objective procedure provided an acceptable prediction of both river discharge and SWE. These findings offer the large community of SWAT users a strategy to improve SWAT modeling in alpine catchments.

Radionuclide transfer in marine coastal ecosystems, a modelling study using metabolic processes and site data.

PubMed

Konovalenko, L; Bradshaw, C; Kumblad, L; Kautsky, U

2014-07-01

This study implements new site-specific data and improved process-based transport model for 26 elements (Ac, Ag, Am, Ca, Cl, Cm, Cs, Ho, I, Nb, Ni, Np, Pa, Pb, Pd, Po, Pu, Ra, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tc, Th, U, Zr), and validates model predictions with site measurements and literature data. The model was applied in the safety assessment of a planned nuclear waste repository in Forsmark, Öregrundsgrepen (Baltic Sea). Radionuclide transport models are central in radiological risk assessments to predict radionuclide concentrations in biota and doses to humans. Usually concentration ratios (CRs), the ratio of the measured radionuclide concentration in an organism to the concentration in water, drive such models. However, CRs vary with space and time and CR estimates for many organisms are lacking. In the model used in this study, radionuclides were assumed to follow the circulation of organic matter in the ecosystem and regulated by radionuclide-specific mechanisms and metabolic rates of the organisms. Most input parameters were represented by log-normally distributed probability density functions (PDFs) to account for parameter uncertainty. Generally, modelled CRs for grazers, benthos, zooplankton and fish for the 26 elements were in good agreement with site-specific measurements. The uncertainty was reduced when the model was parameterized with site data, and modelled CRs were most similar to measured values for particle reactive elements and for primary consumers. This study clearly demonstrated that it is necessary to validate models with more than just a few elements (e.g. Cs, Sr) in order to make them robust. The use of PDFs as input parameters, rather than averages or best estimates, enabled the estimation of the probable range of modelled CR values for the organism groups, an improvement over models that only estimate means. Using a mechanistic model that is constrained by ecological processes enables (i) the evaluation of the relative importance of food and water uptake pathways and processes such as assimilation and excretion, (ii) the possibility to extrapolate within element groups (a common requirement in many risk assessments when initial model parameters are scarce) and (iii) predictions of radionuclide uptake in the ecosystem after changes in ecosystem structure or environmental conditions. These features are important for the longterm (>1000 year) risk assessments that need to be considered for a deep nuclear waste repository. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The practical use of simplicity in developing ground water models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, M.C.

2006-01-01

The advantages of starting with simple models and building complexity slowly can be significant in the development of ground water models. In many circumstances, simpler models are characterized by fewer defined parameters and shorter execution times. In this work, the number of parameters is used as the primary measure of simplicity and complexity; the advantages of shorter execution times also are considered. The ideas are presented in the context of constructing ground water models but are applicable to many fields. Simplicity first is put in perspective as part of the entire modeling process using 14 guidelines for effective model calibration. It is noted that neither very simple nor very complex models generally produce the most accurate predictions and that determining the appropriate level of complexity is an ill-defined process. It is suggested that a thorough evaluation of observation errors is essential to model development. Finally, specific ways are discussed to design useful ground water models that have fewer parameters and shorter execution times.

Analysis of helicopter flight dynamics through modeling and simulation of primary flight control actuation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Hunter Barton

A simplified second-order transfer function actuator model used in most flight dynamics applications cannot easily capture the effects of different actuator parameters. The present work integrates a nonlinear actuator model into a nonlinear state space rotorcraft model to determine the effect of actuator parameters on key flight dynamics. The completed actuator model was integrated with a swashplate kinematics where step responses were generated over a range of key hydraulic parameters. The actuator-swashplate system was then introduced into a nonlinear state space rotorcraft simulation where flight dynamics quantities such as bandwidth and phase delay analyzed. Frequency sweeps were simulated for unique actuator configurations using the coupled nonlinear actuator-rotorcraft system. The software package CIFER was used for system identification and compared directly to the linearized models. As the actuator became rate saturated, the effects on bandwidth and phase delay were apparent on the predicted handling qualities specifications.

Model selection and parameter estimation in structural dynamics using approximate Bayesian computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Abdessalem, Anis; Dervilis, Nikolaos; Wagg, David; Worden, Keith

2018-01-01

This paper will introduce the use of the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm for model selection and parameter estimation in structural dynamics. ABC is a likelihood-free method typically used when the likelihood function is either intractable or cannot be approached in a closed form. To circumvent the evaluation of the likelihood function, simulation from a forward model is at the core of the ABC algorithm. The algorithm offers the possibility to use different metrics and summary statistics representative of the data to carry out Bayesian inference. The efficacy of the algorithm in structural dynamics is demonstrated through three different illustrative examples of nonlinear system identification: cubic and cubic-quintic models, the Bouc-Wen model and the Duffing oscillator. The obtained results suggest that ABC is a promising alternative to deal with model selection and parameter estimation issues, specifically for systems with complex behaviours.

Accurate Modeling Method for Cu Interconnect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Kenta; Kitahara, Hiroshi; Asai, Yoshihiko; Sakamoto, Hideo; Okada, Norio; Yasuda, Makoto; Oda, Noriaki; Sakurai, Michio; Hiroi, Masayuki; Takewaki, Toshiyuki; Ohnishi, Sadayuki; Iguchi, Manabu; Minda, Hiroyasu; Suzuki, Mieko

This paper proposes an accurate modeling method of the copper interconnect cross-section in which the width and thickness dependence on layout patterns and density caused by processes (CMP, etching, sputtering, lithography, and so on) are fully, incorporated and universally expressed. In addition, we have developed specific test patterns for the model parameters extraction, and an efficient extraction flow. We have extracted the model parameters for 0.15μm CMOS using this method and confirmed that 10%τpd error normally observed with conventional LPE (Layout Parameters Extraction) was completely dissolved. Moreover, it is verified that the model can be applied to more advanced technologies (90nm, 65nm and 55nm CMOS). Since the interconnect delay variations due to the processes constitute a significant part of what have conventionally been treated as random variations, use of the proposed model could enable one to greatly narrow the guardbands required to guarantee a desired yield, thereby facilitating design closure.

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jan, Darrell L.; Davidson, Barry D.; Moore, Nicholas R.

1990-01-01

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Theoretical Tools and Software for Modeling, Simulation and Control Design of Rocket Test Facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richter, Hanz

2004-01-01

A rocket test stand and associated subsystems are complex devices whose operation requires that certain preparatory calculations be carried out before a test. In addition, real-time control calculations must be performed during the test, and further calculations are carried out after a test is completed. The latter may be required in order to evaluate if a particular test conformed to specifications. These calculations are used to set valve positions, pressure setpoints, control gains and other operating parameters so that a desired system behavior is obtained and the test can be successfully carried out. Currently, calculations are made in an ad-hoc fashion and involve trial-and-error procedures that may involve activating the system with the sole purpose of finding the correct parameter settings. The goals of this project are to develop mathematical models, control methodologies and associated simulation environments to provide a systematic and comprehensive prediction and real-time control capability. The models and controller designs are expected to be useful in two respects: 1) As a design tool, a model is the only way to determine the effects of design choices without building a prototype, which is, in the context of rocket test stands, impracticable; 2) As a prediction and tuning tool, a good model allows to set system parameters off-line, so that the expected system response conforms to specifications. This includes the setting of physical parameters, such as valve positions, and the configuration and tuning of any feedback controllers in the loop.

On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.

2011-01-01

The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. The beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geology (outside the USA).

Analysis of factors that influence rates of carbon monoxide uptake, distribution, and washout from blood and extravascular tissues using a multicompartment model.

PubMed

Bruce, Margaret C; Bruce, Eugene N

2006-04-01

To better understand factors that influence carbon monoxide (CO) washout rates, we utilized a multicompartment mathematical model to predict rates of CO uptake, distribution in vascular and extravascular (muscle vs. other soft tissue) compartments, and washout over a range of exposure and washout conditions with varied subject-specific parameters. We fitted this model to experimental data from 15 human subjects, for whom subject-specific parameters were known, multiple washout carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels were available, and CO exposure conditions were identical, to investigate the contributions of exposure conditions and individual variability to CO washout from blood. We found that CO washout from venous blood was biphasic and that postexposure times at which COHb samples were obtained significantly influenced the calculated CO half times (P < 0.0001). The first, more rapid, phase of CO washout from the blood reflected the loss of CO to the expired air and to a slow uptake by the muscle compartment, whereas the second, slower washout phase was attributable to CO flow from the muscle compartment back to the blood and removal from blood via the expired air. When the model was used to predict the effects of varying exposure conditions for these subjects, the CO exposure duration, concentration, peak COHb levels, and subject-specific parameters each influenced washout half times. Blood volume divided by ventilation correlated better with half-time predictions than did cardiac output, muscle mass, or ventilation, but it explained only approximately 50% of half-time variability. Thus exposure conditions, COHb sampling times, and individual parameters should be considered when estimating CO washout rates for poisoning victims.

The Critical Power Model as a Potential Tool for Anti-doping

PubMed Central

Puchowicz, Michael J.; Mizelman, Eliran; Yogev, Assaf; Koehle, Michael S.; Townsend, Nathan E.; Clarke, David C.

2018-01-01

Existing doping detection strategies rely on direct and indirect biochemical measurement methods focused on detecting banned substances, their metabolites, or biomarkers related to their use. However, the goal of doping is to improve performance, and yet evidence from performance data is not considered by these strategies. The emergence of portable sensors for measuring exercise intensities and of player tracking technologies may enable the widespread collection of performance data. How these data should be used for doping detection is an open question. Herein, we review the basis by which performance models could be used for doping detection, followed by critically reviewing the potential of the critical power (CP) model as a prototypical performance model that could be used in this regard. Performance models are mathematical representations of performance data specific to the athlete. Some models feature parameters with physiological interpretations, changes to which may provide clues regarding the specific doping method. The CP model is a simple model of the power-duration curve and features two physiologically interpretable parameters, CP and W′. We argue that the CP model could be useful for doping detection mainly based on the predictable sensitivities of its parameters to ergogenic aids and other performance-enhancing interventions. However, our argument is counterbalanced by the existence of important limitations and unresolved questions that need to be addressed before the model is used for doping detection. We conclude by providing a simple worked example showing how it could be used and propose recommendations for its implementation. PMID:29928234

Quality changes of pasteurised orange juice during storage: A kinetic study of specific parameters and their relation to colour instability.

PubMed

Wibowo, Scheling; Grauwet, Tara; Santiago, Jihan Santanina; Tomic, Jovana; Vervoort, Liesbeth; Hendrickx, Marc; Van Loey, Ann

2015-11-15

In view of understanding colour instability of pasteurised orange juice during storage, to the best of our knowledge, this study reports for the first time in a systematic and quantitative way on a range of changes in specific quality parameters as a function of time and as well as temperature (20-42 °C). A zero-order (°Brix, fructose, glucose), a first-order (vitamin C), a second-order (sucrose) and a fractional conversion model (oxygen) were selected to model the evolution of the parameters between parentheses. Activation energies ranged from 22 to 136 kJ mol(-1), HMF formation being the most temperature sensitive. High correlations were found between sugars, ascorbic acid, their degradation products (furfural and HMF) and total colour difference (ΔE(∗)). Based on PLS regression, the importance of the quality parameters for colour degradation was ranked relatively among each other: the acid-catalysed degradation of sugars and ascorbic acid degradation reactions appeared to be important for browning development in pasteurised orange juice during ambient storage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of tissue physical parameters for accurate temperature estimation from finite-element simulation of radiofrequency ablation.

PubMed

Subramanian, Swetha; Mast, T Douglas

2015-10-07

Computational finite element models are commonly used for the simulation of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatments. However, the accuracy of these simulations is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of tissue parameters. In this technical note, an inverse solver based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to optimize values for specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity resulting in accurately simulated temperature elevations. A total of 15 RFA treatments were performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue. For each RFA treatment, 15 finite-element simulations were performed using a set of deterministically chosen tissue parameters to estimate the mean and variance of the resulting tissue ablation. The UKF was implemented as an inverse solver to recover the specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity corresponding to the measured area of the ablated tissue region, as determined from gross tissue histology. These tissue parameters were then employed in the finite element model to simulate the position- and time-dependent tissue temperature. Results show good agreement between simulated and measured temperature.

Control-Relevant Modeling, Analysis, and Design for Scramjet-Powered Hypersonic Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, Armando A.; Dickeson, Jeffrey J.; Sridharan, Srikanth; Benavides, Jose; Soloway, Don; Kelkar, Atul; Vogel, Jerald M.

2009-01-01

Within this paper, control-relevant vehicle design concepts are examined using a widely used 3 DOF (plus flexibility) nonlinear model for the longitudinal dynamics of a generic carrot-shaped scramjet powered hypersonic vehicle. Trade studies associated with vehicle/engine parameters are examined. The impact of parameters on control-relevant static properties (e.g. level-flight trimmable region, trim controls, AOA, thrust margin) and dynamic properties (e.g. instability and right half plane zero associated with flight path angle) are examined. Specific parameters considered include: inlet height, diffuser area ratio, lower forebody compression ramp inclination angle, engine location, center of gravity, and mass. Vehicle optimizations is also examined. Both static and dynamic considerations are addressed. The gap-metric optimized vehicle is obtained to illustrate how this control-centric concept can be used to "reduce" scheduling requirements for the final control system. A classic inner-outer loop control architecture and methodology is used to shed light on how specific vehicle/engine design parameter selections impact control system design. In short, the work represents an important first step toward revealing fundamental tradeoffs and systematically treating control-relevant vehicle design.

A hierarchical stress release model for synthetic seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark

1997-06-01

We construct a stochastic dynamic model for synthetic seismicity involving stochastic stress input, release, and transfer in an environment of heterogeneous strength and interacting segments. The model is not fault-specific, having a number of adjustable parameters with physical interpretation, namely, stress relaxation, stress transfer, stress dissipation, segment structure, strength, and strength heterogeneity, which affect the seismicity in various ways. Local parameters are chosen to be consistent with large historical events, other parameters to reproduce bulk seismicity statistics for the fault as a whole. The one-dimensional fault is divided into a number of segments, each comprising a varying number of nodes. Stress input occurs at each node in a simple random process, representing the slow buildup due to tectonic plate movements. Events are initiated, subject to a stochastic hazard function, when the stress on a node exceeds the local strength. An event begins with the transfer of excess stress to neighboring nodes, which may in turn transfer their excess stress to the next neighbor. If the event grows to include the entire segment, then most of the stress on the segment is transferred to neighboring segments (or dissipated) in a characteristic event. These large events may themselves spread to other segments. We use the Middle America Trench to demonstrate that this model, using simple stochastic stress input and triggering mechanisms, can produce behavior consistent with the historical record over five units of magnitude. We also investigate the effects of perturbing various parameters in order to show how the model might be tailored to a specific fault structure. The strength of the model lies in this ability to reproduce the behavior of a general linear fault system through the choice of a relatively small number of parameters. It remains to develop a procedure for estimating the internal state of the model from the historical observations in order to use the model for forward prediction.

Random parameter models of interstate crash frequencies by severity, number of vehicles involved, collision and location type.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Narayan; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venky N

2013-10-01

A nine-year (1999-2007) continuous panel of crash histories on interstates in Washington State, USA, was used to estimate random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) models for various aggregations of crashes. A total of 21 different models were assessed in terms of four ways to aggregate crashes, by: (a) severity, (b) number of vehicles involved, (c) crash type, and by (d) location characteristics. The models within these aggregations include specifications for all severities (property damage only, possible injury, evident injury, disabling injury, and fatality), number of vehicles involved (one-vehicle to five-or-more-vehicle), crash type (sideswipe, same direction, overturn, head-on, fixed object, rear-end, and other), and location types (urban interchange, rural interchange, urban non-interchange, rural non-interchange). A total of 1153 directional road segments comprising of the seven Washington State interstates were analyzed, yielding statistical models of crash frequency based on 10,377 observations. These results suggest that in general there was a significant improvement in log-likelihood when using RPNB compared to a fixed parameter negative binomial baseline model. Heterogeneity effects are most noticeable for lighting type, road curvature, and traffic volume (ADT). Median lighting or right-side lighting are linked to increased crash frequencies in many models for more than half of the road segments compared to both-sides lighting. Both-sides lighting thereby appears to generally lead to a safety improvement. Traffic volume has a random parameter but the effect is always toward increasing crash frequencies as expected. However that the effect is random shows that the effect of traffic volume on crash frequency is complex and varies by road segment. The number of lanes has a random parameter effect only in the interchange type models. The results show that road segment-specific insights into crash frequency occurrence can lead to improved design policy and project prioritization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling mechanical cardiopulmonary interactions for virtual environments.

PubMed

Kaye, J M

1997-01-01

We have developed a computer system for modeling mechanical cardiopulmonary behavior in an interactive, 3D virtual environment. The system consists of a compact, scalar description of cardiopulmonary mechanics, with an emphasis on respiratory mechanics, that drives deformable 3D anatomy to simulate mechanical behaviors of and interactions between physiological systems. Such an environment can be used to facilitate exploration of cardiopulmonary physiology, particularly in situations that are difficult to reproduce clinically. We integrate 3D deformable body dynamics with new, formal models of (scalar) cardiorespiratory physiology, associating the scalar physiological variables and parameters with corresponding 3D anatomy. Our approach is amenable to modeling patient-specific circumstances in two ways. First, using CT scan data, we apply semi-automatic methods for extracting and reconstructing the anatomy to use in our simulations. Second, our scalar models are defined in terms of clinically-measurable, patient-specific parameters. This paper describes our approach and presents a sample of results showing normal breathing and acute effects of pneumothoraces.

Linear and nonlinear ARMA model parameter estimation using an artificial neural network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chon, K. H.; Cohen, R. J.

1997-01-01

This paper addresses parametric system identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems by analysis of the input and output signals. Specifically, we investigate the relationship between estimation of the system using a feedforward neural network model and estimation of the system by use of linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models. By utilizing a neural network model incorporating a polynomial activation function, we show the equivalence of the artificial neural network to the linear and nonlinear ARMA models. We compare the parameterization of the estimated system using the neural network and ARMA approaches by utilizing data generated by means of computer simulations. Specifically, we show that the parameters of a simulated ARMA system can be obtained from the neural network analysis of the simulated data or by conventional least squares ARMA analysis. The feasibility of applying neural networks with polynomial activation functions to the analysis of experimental data is explored by application to measurements of heart rate (HR) and instantaneous lung volume (ILV) fluctuations.

Preliminary assessment of soil moisture over vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, T. N.

1986-01-01

Modeling of surface energy fluxes was combined with in-situ measurement of surface parameters, specifically the surface sensible heat flux and the substrate soil moisture. A vegetation component was incorporated in the atmospheric/substrate model and subsequently showed that fluxes over vegetation can be very much different than those over bare soil for a given surface-air temperature difference. The temperature signatures measured by a satellite or airborne radiometer should be interpreted in conjunction with surface measurements of modeled parameters. Paradoxically, analyses of the large-scale distribution of soil moisture availability shows that there is a very high correlation between antecedent precipitation and inferred surface moisture availability, even when no specific vegetation parameterization is used in the boundary layer model. Preparatory work was begun in streamlining the present boundary layer model, developing better algorithms for relating surface temperatures to substrate moisture, preparing for participation in the French HAPEX experiment, and analyzing aircraft microwave and radiometric surface temperature data for the 1983 French Beauce experiments.

The fiber orientation in the coronary arterial wall at physiological loading evaluated with a two-fiber constitutive model.

PubMed

van der Horst, Arjen; van den Broek, Chantal N; van de Vosse, Frans N; Rutten, Marcel C M

2012-03-01

A patient-specific mechanical description of the coronary arterial wall is indispensable for individualized diagnosis and treatment of coronary artery disease. A way to determine the artery's mechanical properties is to fit the parameters of a constitutive model to patient-specific experimental data. Clinical data, however, essentially lack information about the stress-free geometry of an artery, which is necessary for constitutive modeling. In previous research, it has been shown that a way to circumvent this problem is to impose extra modeling constraints on the parameter estimation procedure. In this study, we propose a new modeling constraint concerning the in-situ fiber orientation (β (phys)). β (phys), which is a major contributor to the arterial stress-strain behavior, was determined for porcine and human coronary arteries using a mixed numerical-experimental method. The in-situ situation was mimicked using in-vitro experiments at a physiological axial pre-stretch, in which pressure-radius and pressure-axial force were measured. A single-layered, hyperelastic, thick-walled, two-fiber material model was accurately fitted to the experimental data, enabling the computation of stress, strain, and fiber orientation. β (phys) was found to be almost equal for all vessels measured (36.4 ± 0.3)°, which theoretically can be explained using netting analysis. In further research, this finding can be used as an extra modeling constraint in parameter estimation from clinical data.

Extension of TOPAS for the simulation of proton radiation effects considering molecular and cellular endpoints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polster, Lisa; Schuemann, Jan; Rinaldi, Ilaria; Burigo, Lucas; McNamara, Aimee L.; Stewart, Robert D.; Attili, Andrea; Carlson, David J.; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Ramos Méndez, José; Faddegon, Bruce; Perl, Joseph; Paganetti, Harald

2015-07-01

The aim of this work is to extend a widely used proton Monte Carlo tool, TOPAS, towards the modeling of relative biological effect (RBE) distributions in experimental arrangements as well as patients. TOPAS provides a software core which users configure by writing parameter files to, for instance, define application specific geometries and scoring conditions. Expert users may further extend TOPAS scoring capabilities by plugging in their own additional C++ code. This structure was utilized for the implementation of eight biophysical models suited to calculate proton RBE. As far as physics parameters are concerned, four of these models are based on the proton linear energy transfer, while the others are based on DNA double strand break induction and the frequency-mean specific energy, lineal energy, or delta electron generated track structure. The biological input parameters for all models are typically inferred from fits of the models to radiobiological experiments. The model structures have been implemented in a coherent way within the TOPAS architecture. Their performance was validated against measured experimental data on proton RBE in a spread-out Bragg peak using V79 Chinese Hamster cells. This work is an important step in bringing biologically optimized treatment planning for proton therapy closer to the clinical practice as it will allow researchers to refine and compare pre-defined as well as user-defined models.

Extension of TOPAS for the simulation of proton radiation effects considering molecular and cellular endpoints

PubMed Central

Polster, Lisa; Schuemann, Jan; Rinaldi, Ilaria; Burigo, Lucas; McNamara, Aimee L.; Stewart, Robert D.; Attili, Andrea; Carlson, David J.; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Méndez, José Ramos; Faddegon, Bruce; Perl, Joseph; Paganetti, Harald

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to extend a widely used proton Monte Carlo tool, TOPAS, towards the modeling of relative biological effect (RBE) distributions in experimental arrangements as well as patients. TOPAS provides a software core which users configure by writing parameter files to, for instance, define application specific geometries and scoring conditions. Expert users may further extend TOPAS scoring capabilities by plugging in their own additional C++ code. This structure was utilized for the implementation of eight biophysical models suited to calculate proton RBE. As far as physics parameters are concerned, four of these models are based on the proton linear energy transfer (LET), while the others are based on DNA Double Strand Break (DSB) induction and the frequency-mean specific energy, lineal energy, or delta electron generated track structure. The biological input parameters for all models are typically inferred from fits of the models to radiobiological experiments. The model structures have been implemented in a coherent way within the TOPAS architecture. Their performance was validated against measured experimental data on proton RBE in a spread-out Bragg peak using V79 Chinese Hamster cells. This work is an important step in bringing biologically optimized treatment planning for proton therapy closer to the clinical practice as it will allow researchers to refine and compare pre-defined as well as user-defined models. PMID:26061666

Patient-specific biomechanical model of hypoplastic left heart to predict post-operative cardio-circulatory behaviour.

PubMed

Cutrì, Elena; Meoli, Alessio; Dubini, Gabriele; Migliavacca, Francesco; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Pennati, Giancarlo

2017-09-01

Hypoplastic left heart syndrome is a complex congenital heart disease characterised by the underdevelopment of the left ventricle normally treated with a three-stage surgical repair. In this study, a multiscale closed-loop cardio-circulatory model is created to reproduce the pre-operative condition of a patient suffering from such pathology and virtual surgery is performed. Firstly, cardio-circulatory parameters are estimated using a fully closed-loop cardio-circulatory lumped parameter model. Secondly, a 3D standalone FEA model is build up to obtain active and passive ventricular characteristics and unloaded reference state. Lastly, the 3D model of the single ventricle is coupled to the lumped parameter model of the circulation obtaining a multiscale closed-loop pre-operative model. Lacking any information on the fibre orientation, two cases were simulated: (i) fibre distributed as in the physiological right ventricle and (ii) fibre as in the physiological left ventricle. Once the pre-operative condition is satisfactorily simulated for the two cases, virtual surgery is performed. The post-operative results in the two cases highlighted similar hemodynamic behaviour but different local mechanics. This finding suggests that the knowledge of the patient-specific fibre arrangement is important to correctly estimate the single ventricle's working condition and consequently can be valuable to support clinical decision. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

WHAT ARE THE BEST MEANS TO ASSESS SITES AND MOVE TOWARD CLOSURE, USING APPROPRIATE SITE SPECIFIC RISK EVALUATIONS?

EPA Science Inventory

To facilitate evaluation of existing site characterization data, ORD has developed on-line tools and models that integrate data and models into innovative applications. Forty calculators have been developed in four groups: parameter estimators, models, scientific demos and unit ...

Development of a Standard Set of Software Indicators for Aeronautical Systems Center.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

29:12). The composite models listed include COCOMO and the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Model ( SPQR ) (29:12). The SPQR model was...determine the values of the 68 input parameters. Source provides no specifics. Indicator Name SPQR (SW Productivity, Qual, Reliability) Indicator Class

On the applicability of surrogate-based Markov chain Monte Carlo-Bayesian inversion to the Community Land Model: Case studies at flux tower sites: SURROGATE-BASED MCMC FOR CLM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Maoyi; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan

2016-07-04

The Community Land Model (CLM) has been widely used in climate and Earth system modeling. Accurate estimation of model parameters is needed for reliable model simulations and predictions under current and future conditions, respectively. In our previous work, a subset of hydrological parameters has been identified to have significant impact on surface energy fluxes at selected flux tower sites based on parameter screening and sensitivity analysis, which indicate that the parameters could potentially be estimated from surface flux observations at the towers. To date, such estimates do not exist. In this paper, we assess the feasibility of applying a Bayesianmore » model calibration technique to estimate CLM parameters at selected flux tower sites under various site conditions. The parameters are estimated as a joint probability density function (PDF) that provides estimates of uncertainty of the parameters being inverted, conditional on climatologically-average latent heat fluxes derived from observations. We find that the simulated mean latent heat fluxes from CLM using the calibrated parameters are generally improved at all sites when compared to those obtained with CLM simulations using default parameter sets. Further, our calibration method also results in credibility bounds around the simulated mean fluxes which bracket the measured data. The modes (or maximum a posteriori values) and 95% credibility intervals of the site-specific posterior PDFs are tabulated as suggested parameter values for each site. Analysis of relationships between the posterior PDFs and site conditions suggests that the parameter values are likely correlated with the plant functional type, which needs to be confirmed in future studies by extending the approach to more sites.« less

On the applicability of surrogate-based MCMC-Bayesian inversion to the Community Land Model: Case studies at Flux tower sites

DOE PAGES

Huang, Maoyi; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; ...

2016-06-01

The Community Land Model (CLM) has been widely used in climate and Earth system modeling. Accurate estimation of model parameters is needed for reliable model simulations and predictions under current and future conditions, respectively. In our previous work, a subset of hydrological parameters has been identified to have significant impact on surface energy fluxes at selected flux tower sites based on parameter screening and sensitivity analysis, which indicate that the parameters could potentially be estimated from surface flux observations at the towers. To date, such estimates do not exist. In this paper, we assess the feasibility of applying a Bayesianmore » model calibration technique to estimate CLM parameters at selected flux tower sites under various site conditions. The parameters are estimated as a joint probability density function (PDF) that provides estimates of uncertainty of the parameters being inverted, conditional on climatologically average latent heat fluxes derived from observations. We find that the simulated mean latent heat fluxes from CLM using the calibrated parameters are generally improved at all sites when compared to those obtained with CLM simulations using default parameter sets. Further, our calibration method also results in credibility bounds around the simulated mean fluxes which bracket the measured data. The modes (or maximum a posteriori values) and 95% credibility intervals of the site-specific posterior PDFs are tabulated as suggested parameter values for each site. As a result, analysis of relationships between the posterior PDFs and site conditions suggests that the parameter values are likely correlated with the plant functional type, which needs to be confirmed in future studies by extending the approach to more sites.« less

On the applicability of surrogate-based MCMC-Bayesian inversion to the Community Land Model: Case studies at Flux tower sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Maoyi; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan

The Community Land Model (CLM) has been widely used in climate and Earth system modeling. Accurate estimation of model parameters is needed for reliable model simulations and predictions under current and future conditions, respectively. In our previous work, a subset of hydrological parameters has been identified to have significant impact on surface energy fluxes at selected flux tower sites based on parameter screening and sensitivity analysis, which indicate that the parameters could potentially be estimated from surface flux observations at the towers. To date, such estimates do not exist. In this paper, we assess the feasibility of applying a Bayesianmore » model calibration technique to estimate CLM parameters at selected flux tower sites under various site conditions. The parameters are estimated as a joint probability density function (PDF) that provides estimates of uncertainty of the parameters being inverted, conditional on climatologically average latent heat fluxes derived from observations. We find that the simulated mean latent heat fluxes from CLM using the calibrated parameters are generally improved at all sites when compared to those obtained with CLM simulations using default parameter sets. Further, our calibration method also results in credibility bounds around the simulated mean fluxes which bracket the measured data. The modes (or maximum a posteriori values) and 95% credibility intervals of the site-specific posterior PDFs are tabulated as suggested parameter values for each site. As a result, analysis of relationships between the posterior PDFs and site conditions suggests that the parameter values are likely correlated with the plant functional type, which needs to be confirmed in future studies by extending the approach to more sites.« less

On the applicability of surrogate-based Markov chain Monte Carlo-Bayesian inversion to the Community Land Model: Case studies at flux tower sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Maoyi; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Ren, Huiying; Liu, Ying; Swiler, Laura

2016-07-01

The Community Land Model (CLM) has been widely used in climate and Earth system modeling. Accurate estimation of model parameters is needed for reliable model simulations and predictions under current and future conditions, respectively. In our previous work, a subset of hydrological parameters has been identified to have significant impact on surface energy fluxes at selected flux tower sites based on parameter screening and sensitivity analysis, which indicate that the parameters could potentially be estimated from surface flux observations at the towers. To date, such estimates do not exist. In this paper, we assess the feasibility of applying a Bayesian model calibration technique to estimate CLM parameters at selected flux tower sites under various site conditions. The parameters are estimated as a joint probability density function (PDF) that provides estimates of uncertainty of the parameters being inverted, conditional on climatologically average latent heat fluxes derived from observations. We find that the simulated mean latent heat fluxes from CLM using the calibrated parameters are generally improved at all sites when compared to those obtained with CLM simulations using default parameter sets. Further, our calibration method also results in credibility bounds around the simulated mean fluxes which bracket the measured data. The modes (or maximum a posteriori values) and 95% credibility intervals of the site-specific posterior PDFs are tabulated as suggested parameter values for each site. Analysis of relationships between the posterior PDFs and site conditions suggests that the parameter values are likely correlated with the plant functional type, which needs to be confirmed in future studies by extending the approach to more sites.

INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN TASK-SPECIFIC PAIRED ASSOCIATES LEARNING IN OLDER ADULTS: THE ROLE OF PROCESSING SPEED AND WORKING MEMORY

PubMed Central

Kurtz, Tanja; Mogle, Jacqueline; Sliwinski, Martin J.; Hofer, Scott M.

2013-01-01

Background The role of processing speed and working memory was investigated in terms of individual differences in task-specific paired associates learning in a sample of older adults. Task-specific learning, as distinct from content-oriented item-specific learning, refers to gains in performance due to repeated practice on a learning task in which the to-be-learned material changes over trials. Methods Learning trajectories were modeled within an intensive repeated-measures design based on participants obtained from an opt-in internet-based sampling service (Mage = 65.3, SD = 4.81). Participants completed an eight-item paired associates task daily over a seven-day period. Results Results indicated that a three-parameter hyperbolic model (i.e., initial level, learning rate, and asymptotic performance) best described learning trajectory. After controlling for age-related effects, both higher working memory and higher processing speed had a positive effect on all three learning parameters. Conclusion These results emphasize the role of cognitive abilities for individual differences in task-specific learning of older adults. PMID:24151913

[Development of an analyzing system for soil parameters based on NIR spectroscopy].

PubMed

Zheng, Li-Hua; Li, Min-Zan; Sun, Hong

2009-10-01

A rapid estimation system for soil parameters based on spectral analysis was developed by using object-oriented (OO) technology. A class of SOIL was designed. The instance of the SOIL class is the object of the soil samples with the particular type, specific physical properties and spectral characteristics. Through extracting the effective information from the modeling spectral data of soil object, a map model was established between the soil parameters and its spectral data, while it was possible to save the mapping model parameters in the database of the model. When forecasting the content of any soil parameter, the corresponding prediction model of this parameter can be selected with the same soil type and the similar soil physical properties of objects. And after the object of target soil samples was carried into the prediction model and processed by the system, the accurate forecasting content of the target soil samples could be obtained. The system includes modules such as file operations, spectra pretreatment, sample analysis, calibrating and validating, and samples content forecasting. The system was designed to run out of equipment. The parameters and spectral data files (*.xls) of the known soil samples can be input into the system. Due to various data pretreatment being selected according to the concrete conditions, the results of predicting content will appear in the terminal and the forecasting model can be stored in the model database. The system reads the predicting models and their parameters are saved in the model database from the module interface, and then the data of the tested samples are transferred into the selected model. Finally the content of soil parameters can be predicted by the developed system. The system was programmed with Visual C++6.0 and Matlab 7.0. And the Access XP was used to create and manage the model database.

Exploring Model Error through Post-processing and an Ensemble Kalman Filter on Fire Weather Days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Michael J.

The proliferation of coupling atmospheric ensemble data to models in other related fields requires a priori knowledge of atmospheric ensemble biases specific to the desired application. In that spirit, this dissertation focuses on elucidating atmospheric ensemble model bias and error through a variety of different methods specific to fire weather days (FWDs) over the Northeast United States (NEUS). Other than a handful of studies that use models to predict fire indices for single fire seasons (Molders 2008, Simpson et al. 2014), an extensive exploration of model performance specific to FWDs has not been attempted. Two unique definitions for FWDs are proposed; one that uses pre-existing fire indices (FWD1) and another from a new statistical fire weather index (FWD2) relating fire occurrence and near-surface meteorological observations. Ensemble model verification reveals FWDs to have warmer (> 1 K), moister (~ 0.4 g kg-1) and less windy (~ 1 m s-1) biases than the climatological average for both FWD1 and FWD2. These biases are not restricted to the near surface but exist through the entirety of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Furthermore, post-processing methods are more effective when previous FWDs are incorporated into the statistical training, suggesting that model bias could be related to the synoptic flow pattern. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of data assimilation during a period of extensive FWDs in April 2012. Model biases develop rapidly on FWDs, consistent with the FWD1 and FWD2 verification. However, the EnKF is effective at removing most biases for temperature, wind speed and specific humidity. Potential sources of error in the parameterized physics of the PBL are explored by rerunning the EnKF with simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) for two relevant parameters within the ACM2 PBL scheme. SSPE helps to reduce the cool temperature bias near the surface on FWDs, with the variability in parameter estimates exhibiting some relationship to model bias for temperature. This suggests the potential for structural model error within the ACM2 PBL scheme and could lead toward the future development of improved PBL parameterizations.

P-HS-SFM: a parallel harmony search algorithm for the reproduction of experimental data in the continuous microscopic crowd dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaber, Khalid Mohammad; Alia, Osama Moh'd.; Shuaib, Mohammed Mahmod

2018-03-01

Finding the optimal parameters that can reproduce experimental data (such as the velocity-density relation and the specific flow rate) is a very important component of the validation and calibration of microscopic crowd dynamic models. Heavy computational demand during parameter search is a known limitation that exists in a previously developed model known as the Harmony Search-Based Social Force Model (HS-SFM). In this paper, a parallel-based mechanism is proposed to reduce the computational time and memory resource utilisation required to find these parameters. More specifically, two MATLAB-based multicore techniques (parfor and create independent jobs) using shared memory are developed by taking advantage of the multithreading capabilities of parallel computing, resulting in a new framework called the Parallel Harmony Search-Based Social Force Model (P-HS-SFM). The experimental results show that the parfor-based P-HS-SFM achieved a better computational time of about 26 h, an efficiency improvement of ? 54% and a speedup factor of 2.196 times in comparison with the HS-SFM sequential processor. The performance of the P-HS-SFM using the create independent jobs approach is also comparable to parfor with a computational time of 26.8 h, an efficiency improvement of about 30% and a speedup of 2.137 times.

Visualization of Space-Time Ambiguities to be Explored by NASA GEC Mission with a Critique of Synthesized Measurements for Different GEC Mission Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, Jan J.

2003-01-01

The Grant supported research addressing the question of how the NASA Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) Mission called Geospace electrodynamics Connections (GEC) will resolve space-time structures as well as collect sufficient information to solve the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere- magnetosphere dynamics and electrodynamics. The approach adopted was to develop a high resolution in both space and time model of the ionosphere-thermosphere (I-T) over altitudes relevant to GEC, especially the deep-dipping phase. This I-T model was driven by a high- resolution model of magnetospheric-ionospheric (M-I) coupling electrodynamics. Such a model contains all the key parameters to be measured by GEC instrumentation, which in turn are the required parameters to resolve present-day problems in describing the energy and momentum coupling between the ionosphere-magnetosphere and ionosphere-thermosphere. This model database has been successfully created for one geophysical condition; winter, solar maximum with disturbed geophysical conditions, specifically a substorm. Using this data set, visualizations (movies) were created to contrast dynamics of the different measurable parameters. Specifically, the rapidly varying magnetospheric E and auroral electron precipitation versus the slower varying ionospheric F-region electron density, but rapidly responding E-region density.

Numerical simulation of the structure of the high-latitude ionospheric F region during meridional HF propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, M. Yu.; Mingaleva, G. I.; Mingalev, V. S.

2007-08-01

A previously developed model of the high-latitude ionosphere is used to calculate the distribution of the ionospheric parameters in the polar region. A specific method for specifying input parameters of the mathematical model, using the experimental data obtained by the method of satellite radio tomography, is used in this case. The spatial distributions of the ionospheric parameters characterized by a complex inhomogeneous structure in the high-latitude region, calculated with the help of the mathematical model, are used to simulate the HF propagation along the meridionally oriented radio paths extending from middle to high latitudes. The method for improving the HF communication between a midlatitude transmitter and a polar-cap receiver is proposed.

Subject-specific body segment parameter estimation using 3D photogrammetry with multiple cameras

PubMed Central

Morris, Mark; Sellers, William I.

2015-01-01

Inertial properties of body segments, such as mass, centre of mass or moments of inertia, are important parameters when studying movements of the human body. However, these quantities are not directly measurable. Current approaches include using regression models which have limited accuracy: geometric models with lengthy measuring procedures or acquiring and post-processing MRI scans of participants. We propose a geometric methodology based on 3D photogrammetry using multiple cameras to provide subject-specific body segment parameters while minimizing the interaction time with the participants. A low-cost body scanner was built using multiple cameras and 3D point cloud data generated using structure from motion photogrammetric reconstruction algorithms. The point cloud was manually separated into body segments, and convex hulling applied to each segment to produce the required geometric outlines. The accuracy of the method can be adjusted by choosing the number of subdivisions of the body segments. The body segment parameters of six participants (four male and two female) are presented using the proposed method. The multi-camera photogrammetric approach is expected to be particularly suited for studies including populations for which regression models are not available in literature and where other geometric techniques or MRI scanning are not applicable due to time or ethical constraints. PMID:25780778

Subject-specific body segment parameter estimation using 3D photogrammetry with multiple cameras.

PubMed

Peyer, Kathrin E; Morris, Mark; Sellers, William I

2015-01-01

Inertial properties of body segments, such as mass, centre of mass or moments of inertia, are important parameters when studying movements of the human body. However, these quantities are not directly measurable. Current approaches include using regression models which have limited accuracy: geometric models with lengthy measuring procedures or acquiring and post-processing MRI scans of participants. We propose a geometric methodology based on 3D photogrammetry using multiple cameras to provide subject-specific body segment parameters while minimizing the interaction time with the participants. A low-cost body scanner was built using multiple cameras and 3D point cloud data generated using structure from motion photogrammetric reconstruction algorithms. The point cloud was manually separated into body segments, and convex hulling applied to each segment to produce the required geometric outlines. The accuracy of the method can be adjusted by choosing the number of subdivisions of the body segments. The body segment parameters of six participants (four male and two female) are presented using the proposed method. The multi-camera photogrammetric approach is expected to be particularly suited for studies including populations for which regression models are not available in literature and where other geometric techniques or MRI scanning are not applicable due to time or ethical constraints.

Homogenization Theory for the Prediction of Obstructed Solute Diffusivity in Macromolecular Solutions.

PubMed

Donovan, Preston; Chehreghanianzabi, Yasaman; Rathinam, Muruhan; Zustiak, Silviya Petrova

2016-01-01

The study of diffusion in macromolecular solutions is important in many biomedical applications such as separations, drug delivery, and cell encapsulation, and key for many biological processes such as protein assembly and interstitial transport. Not surprisingly, multiple models for the a-priori prediction of diffusion in macromolecular environments have been proposed. However, most models include parameters that are not readily measurable, are specific to the polymer-solute-solvent system, or are fitted and do not have a physical meaning. Here, for the first time, we develop a homogenization theory framework for the prediction of effective solute diffusivity in macromolecular environments based on physical parameters that are easily measurable and not specific to the macromolecule-solute-solvent system. Homogenization theory is useful for situations where knowledge of fine-scale parameters is used to predict bulk system behavior. As a first approximation, we focus on a model where the solute is subjected to obstructed diffusion via stationary spherical obstacles. We find that the homogenization theory results agree well with computationally more expensive Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, the homogenization theory agrees with effective diffusivities of a solute in dilute and semi-dilute polymer solutions measured using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy. Lastly, we provide a mathematical formula for the effective diffusivity in terms of a non-dimensional and easily measurable geometric system parameter.

Diamond Tool Specific Wear Rate Assessment in Granite Machining by Means of Knoop Micro-Hardness and Process Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goktan, R. M.; Gunes Yılmaz, N.

2017-09-01

The present study was undertaken to investigate the potential usability of Knoop micro-hardness, both as a single parameter and in combination with operational parameters, for sawblade specific wear rate (SWR) assessment in the machining of ornamental granites. The sawing tests were performed on different commercially available granite varieties by using a fully instrumented side-cutting machine. During the sawing tests, two fundamental productivity parameters, namely the workpiece feed rate and cutting depth, were varied at different levels. The good correspondence observed between the measured Knoop hardness and SWR values for different operational conditions indicates that it has the potential to be used as a rock material property that can be employed in preliminary wear estimations of diamond sawblades. Also, a multiple regression model directed to SWR prediction was developed which takes into account the Knoop hardness, cutting depth and workpiece feed rate. The relative contribution of each independent variable in the prediction of SWR was determined by using test statistics. The prediction accuracy of the established model was checked against new observations. The strong prediction performance of the model suggests that its framework may be applied to other granites and operational conditions for quantifying or differentiating the relative wear performance of diamond sawblades.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Golubev, A.; Balashov, Y.; Mavrin, S.

Washout coefficient Λ is widely used as a parameter in washout models. These models describes overall HTO washout with rain by a first-order kinetic equation, while washout coefficient Λ depends on the type of rain event and rain intensity and empirical parameters a, b. The washout coefficient is a macroscopic parameter and we have considered in this paper its relationship with a microscopic rate K of HTO isotopic exchange in atmospheric humidity and drops of rainwater. We have shown that the empirical parameters a, b can be represented through the rain event characteristics using the relationships of molecular impact rate,more » rain intensity and specific rain water content while washout coefficient Λ can be represented through the exchange rate K, rain intensity, raindrop diameter and terminal raindrop velocity.« less

Reduced uncertainty of regional scale CLM predictions of net carbon fluxes and leaf area indices with estimated plant-specific parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

2016-04-01

Reliable estimates of carbon fluxes and states at regional scales are required to reduce uncertainties in regional carbon balance estimates and to support decision making in environmental politics. In this work the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) was applied at a high spatial resolution (1 km2) for the Rur catchment in western Germany. In order to improve the model-data consistency of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI) for this study area, five plant functional type (PFT)-specific CLM4.5-BGC parameters were estimated with time series of half-hourly NEE data for one year in 2011/2012, using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The parameters were estimated separately for four different plant functional types (needleleaf evergreen temperate tree, broadleaf deciduous temperate tree, C3-grass and C3-crop) at four different sites. The four sites are located inside or close to the Rur catchment. We evaluated modeled NEE for one year in 2012/2013 with NEE measured at seven eddy covariance sites in the catchment, including the four parameter estimation sites. Modeled LAI was evaluated by means of LAI derived from remotely sensed RapidEye images of about 18 days in 2011/2012. Performance indices were based on a comparison between measurements and (i) a reference run with CLM default parameters, and (ii) a 60 instance CLM ensemble with parameters sampled from the DREAM posterior probability density functions (pdfs). The difference between the observed and simulated NEE sum reduced 23% if estimated parameters instead of default parameters were used as input. The mean absolute difference between modeled and measured LAI was reduced by 59% on average. Simulated LAI was not only improved in terms of the absolute value but in some cases also in terms of the timing (beginning of vegetation onset), which was directly related to a substantial improvement of the NEE estimates in spring. In order to obtain a more comprehensive estimate of the model uncertainty, a second CLM ensemble was set up, where initial conditions and atmospheric forcings were perturbed in addition to the parameter estimates. This resulted in very high standard deviations (STD) of the modeled annual NEE sums for C3-grass and C3-crop PFTs, ranging between 24.1 and 225.9 gC m-2 y-1, compared to STD = 0.1 - 3.4 gC m-2 y-1 (effect of parameter uncertainty only, without additional perturbation of initial states and atmospheric forcings). The higher spread of modeled NEE for the C3-crop and C3-grass indicated that the model uncertainty was notably higher for those PFTs compared to the forest-PFTs. Our findings highlight the potential of parameter and uncertainty estimation to support the understanding and further development of land surface models such as CLM.

How tibiofemoral alignment and contact locations affect predictions of medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces.

PubMed

Lerner, Zachary F; DeMers, Matthew S; Delp, Scott L; Browning, Raymond C

2015-02-26

Understanding degeneration of biological and prosthetic knee joints requires knowledge of the in-vivo loading environment during activities of daily living. Musculoskeletal models can estimate medial/lateral tibiofemoral compartment contact forces, yet anthropometric differences between individuals make accurate predictions challenging. We developed a full-body OpenSim musculoskeletal model with a knee joint that incorporates subject-specific tibiofemoral alignment (i.e. knee varus-valgus) and geometry (i.e. contact locations). We tested the accuracy of our model and determined the importance of these subject-specific parameters by comparing estimated to measured medial and lateral contact forces during walking in an individual with an instrumented knee replacement and post-operative genu valgum (6°). The errors in the predictions of the first peak medial and lateral contact force were 12.4% and 11.9%, respectively, for a model with subject-specific tibiofemoral alignment and contact locations determined through radiographic analysis, vs. 63.1% and 42.0%, respectively, for a model with generic parameters. We found that each degree of tibiofemoral alignment deviation altered the first peak medial compartment contact force by 51N (r(2)=0.99), while each millimeter of medial-lateral translation of the compartment contact point locations altered the first peak medial compartment contact force by 41N (r(2)=0.99). The model, available at www.simtk.org/home/med-lat-knee/, enables the specification of subject-specific joint alignment and compartment contact locations to more accurately estimate medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces in individuals with non-neutral alignment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Tibiofemoral Alignment and Contact Locations Affect Predictions of Medial and Lateral Tibiofemoral Contact Forces

PubMed Central

Lerner, Zachary F.; DeMers, Matthew S.; Delp, Scott L.; Browning, Raymond C.

2015-01-01

Understanding degeneration of biological and prosthetic knee joints requires knowledge of the in-vivo loading environment during activities of daily living. Musculoskeletal models can estimate medial/lateral tibiofemoral compartment contact forces, yet anthropometric differences between individuals make accurate predictions challenging. We developed a full-body OpenSim musculoskeletal model with a knee joint that incorporates subject-specific tibiofemoral alignment (i.e. knee varus-valgus) and geometry (i.e. contact locations). We tested the accuracy of our model and determined the importance of these subject-specific parameters by comparing estimated to measured medial and lateral contact forces during walking in an individual with an instrumented knee replacement and post-operative genu valgum (6°). The errors in the predictions of the first peak medial and lateral contact force were 12.4% and 11.9%, respectively, for a model with subject-specific tibiofemoral alignment and contact locations determined via radiographic analysis, vs. 63.1% and 42.0%, respectively, for a model with generic parameters. We found that each degree of tibiofemoral alignment deviation altered the first peak medial compartment contact force by 51N (r2=0.99), while each millimeter of medial-lateral translation of the compartment contact point locations altered the first peak medial compartment contact force by 41N (r2=0.99). The model, available at www.simtk.org/home/med-lat-knee/, enables the specification of subject-specific joint alignment and compartment contact locations to more accurately estimate medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces in individuals with non-neutral alignment. PMID:25595425

Elastic-viscoplastic modeling of soft biological tissues using a mixed finite element formulation based on the relative deformation gradient.

PubMed

Weickenmeier, J; Jabareen, M

2014-11-01

The characteristic highly nonlinear, time-dependent, and often inelastic material response of soft biological tissues can be expressed in a set of elastic-viscoplastic constitutive equations. The specific elastic-viscoplastic model for soft tissues proposed by Rubin and Bodner (2002) is generalized with respect to the constitutive equations for the scalar quantity of the rate of inelasticity and the hardening parameter in order to represent a general framework for elastic-viscoplastic models. A strongly objective integration scheme and a new mixed finite element formulation were developed based on the introduction of the relative deformation gradient-the deformation mapping between the last converged and current configurations. The numerical implementation of both the generalized framework and the specific Rubin and Bodner model is presented. As an example of a challenging application of the new model equations, the mechanical response of facial skin tissue is characterized through an experimental campaign based on the suction method. The measurement data are used for the identification of a suitable set of model parameters that well represents the experimentally observed tissue behavior. Two different measurement protocols were defined to address specific tissue properties with respect to the instantaneous tissue response, inelasticity, and tissue recovery. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development and Characterization of High-Efficiency, High-Specific Impulse Xenon Hall Thrusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hofer, Richard R.; Jacobson, David (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

This dissertation presents research aimed at extending the efficient operation of 1600 s specific impulse Hall thruster technology to the 2000 to 3000 s range. Motivated by previous industry efforts and mission studies, the aim of this research was to develop and characterize xenon Hall thrusters capable of both high-specific impulse and high-efficiency operation. During the development phase, the laboratory-model NASA 173M Hall thrusters were designed and their performance and plasma characteristics were evaluated. Experiments with the NASA-173M version 1 (v1) validated the plasma lens magnetic field design. Experiments with the NASA 173M version 2 (v2) showed there was a minimum current density and optimum magnetic field topography at which efficiency monotonically increased with voltage. Comparison of the thrusters showed that efficiency can be optimized for specific impulse by varying the plasma lens. During the characterization phase, additional plasma properties of the NASA 173Mv2 were measured and a performance model was derived. Results from the model and experimental data showed how efficient operation at high-specific impulse was enabled through regulation of the electron current with the magnetic field. The electron Hall parameter was approximately constant with voltage, which confirmed efficient operation can be realized only over a limited range of Hall parameters.

Impedance analysis of cultured cells: a mean-field electrical response model for electric cell-substrate impedance sensing technique.

PubMed

Urdapilleta, E; Bellotti, M; Bonetto, F J

2006-10-01

In this paper we present a model to describe the electrical properties of a confluent cell monolayer cultured on gold microelectrodes to be used with electric cell-substrate impedance sensing technique. This model was developed from microscopic considerations (distributed effects), and by assuming that the monolayer is an element with mean electrical characteristics (specific lumped parameters). No assumptions were made about cell morphology. The model has only three adjustable parameters. This model and other models currently used for data analysis are compared with data we obtained from electrical measurements of confluent monolayers of Madin-Darby Canine Kidney cells. One important parameter is the cell-substrate height and we found that estimates of this magnitude strongly differ depending on the model used for the analysis. We analyze the origin of the discrepancies, concluding that the estimates from the different models can be considered as limits for the true value of the cell-substrate height.

A comparison between a new model and current models for estimating trunk segment inertial parameters.

PubMed

Wicke, Jason; Dumas, Genevieve A; Costigan, Patrick A

2009-01-05

Modeling of the body segments to estimate segment inertial parameters is required in the kinetic analysis of human motion. A new geometric model for the trunk has been developed that uses various cross-sectional shapes to estimate segment volume and adopts a non-uniform density function that is gender-specific. The goal of this study was to test the accuracy of the new model for estimating the trunk's inertial parameters by comparing it to the more current models used in biomechanical research. Trunk inertial parameters estimated from dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were used as the standard. Twenty-five female and 24 male college-aged participants were recruited for the study. Comparisons of the new model to the accepted models were accomplished by determining the error between the models' trunk inertial estimates and that from DXA. Results showed that the new model was more accurate across all inertial estimates than the other models. The new model had errors within 6.0% for both genders, whereas the other models had higher average errors ranging from 10% to over 50% and were much more inconsistent between the genders. In addition, there was little consistency in the level of accuracy for the other models when estimating the different inertial parameters. These results suggest that the new model provides more accurate and consistent trunk inertial estimates than the other models for both female and male college-aged individuals. However, similar studies need to be performed using other populations, such as elderly or individuals from a distinct morphology (e.g. obese). In addition, the effect of using different models on the outcome of kinetic parameters, such as joint moments and forces needs to be assessed.

Sensitivity Analysis of Biome-Bgc Model for Dry Tropical Forests of Vindhyan Highlands, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M.; Raghubanshi, A. S.

2011-08-01

A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to projected leaf area ratio and Canopy water interception coefficient (Wint). Therefore, these parameters need more precision and attention during estimation and observation in the field studies.

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

System health monitoring using multiple-model adaptive estimation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sifford, Stanley Ryan

Monitoring system health for fault detection and diagnosis by tracking system parameters concurrently with state estimates is approached using a new multiple-model adaptive estimation (MMAE) method. This novel method is called GRid-based Adaptive Parameter Estimation (GRAPE). GRAPE expands existing MMAE methods by using new techniques to sample the parameter space. GRAPE expands on MMAE with the hypothesis that sample models can be applied and resampled without relying on a predefined set of models. GRAPE is initially implemented in a linear framework using Kalman filter models. A more generalized GRAPE formulation is presented using extended Kalman filter (EKF) models to represent nonlinear systems. GRAPE can handle both time invariant and time varying systems as it is designed to track parameter changes. Two techniques are presented to generate parameter samples for the parallel filter models. The first approach is called selected grid-based stratification (SGBS). SGBS divides the parameter space into equally spaced strata. The second approach uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to determine the parameter locations and minimize the total number of required models. LHS is particularly useful when the parameter dimensions grow. Adding more parameters does not require the model count to increase for LHS. Each resample is independent of the prior sample set other than the location of the parameter estimate. SGBS and LHS can be used for both the initial sample and subsequent resamples. Furthermore, resamples are not required to use the same technique. Both techniques are demonstrated for both linear and nonlinear frameworks. The GRAPE framework further formalizes the parameter tracking process through a general approach for nonlinear systems. These additional methods allow GRAPE to either narrow the focus to converged values within a parameter range or expand the range in the appropriate direction to track the parameters outside the current parameter range boundary. Customizable rules define the specific resample behavior when the GRAPE parameter estimates converge. Convergence itself is determined from the derivatives of the parameter estimates using a simple moving average window to filter out noise. The system can be tuned to match the desired performance goals by making adjustments to parameters such as the sample size, convergence criteria, resample criteria, initial sampling method, resampling method, confidence in prior sample covariances, sample delay, and others.

Impact of the hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes of the land surface model Noah-MP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Samaniego, Luis; Clark, Martyn; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Attinger, Sabine; Thober, Stephan

2016-04-01

Land surface models incorporate a large number of processes, described by physical, chemical and empirical equations. The process descriptions contain a number of parameters that can be soil or plant type dependent and are typically read from tabulated input files. Land surface models may have, however, process descriptions that contain fixed, hard-coded numbers in the computer code, which are not identified as model parameters. Here we searched for hard-coded parameters in the computer code of the land surface model Noah with multiple process options (Noah-MP) to assess the importance of the fixed values on restricting the model's agility during parameter estimation. We found 139 hard-coded values in all Noah-MP process options, which are mostly spatially constant values. This is in addition to the 71 standard parameters of Noah-MP, which mostly get distributed spatially by given vegetation and soil input maps. We performed a Sobol' global sensitivity analysis of Noah-MP to variations of the standard and hard-coded parameters for a specific set of process options. 42 standard parameters and 75 hard-coded parameters were active with the chosen process options. The sensitivities of the hydrologic output fluxes latent heat and total runoff as well as their component fluxes were evaluated. These sensitivities were evaluated at twelve catchments of the Eastern United States with very different hydro-meteorological regimes. Noah-MP's hydrologic output fluxes are sensitive to two thirds of its standard parameters. The most sensitive parameter is, however, a hard-coded value in the formulation of soil surface resistance for evaporation, which proved to be oversensitive in other land surface models as well. Surface runoff is sensitive to almost all hard-coded parameters of the snow processes and the meteorological inputs. These parameter sensitivities diminish in total runoff. Assessing these parameters in model calibration would require detailed snow observations or the calculation of hydrologic signatures of the runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff exhibit very similar sensitivities towards standard and hard-coded parameters in Noah-MP because of their tight coupling via the water balance. It should therefore be comparable to calibrate Noah-MP either against latent heat observations or against river runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff are sensitive to both, plant and soil parameters. Calibrating only a parameter sub-set of only soil parameters, for example, thus limits the ability to derive realistic model parameters. It is thus recommended to include the most sensitive hard-coded model parameters that were exposed in this study when calibrating Noah-MP.

Parameter Prediction of Hydraulic Fracture for Tight Reservoir Based on Micro-Seismic and History Matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Ma, Xiaopeng; Li, Yanlai; Wu, Haiyang; Cui, Chenyu; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Hao; Yao, Jun

Hydraulic fracturing is an important measure for the development of tight reservoirs. In order to describe the distribution of hydraulic fractures, micro-seismic diagnostic was introduced into petroleum fields. Micro-seismic events may reveal important information about static characteristics of hydraulic fracturing. However, this method is limited to reflect the distribution area of the hydraulic fractures and fails to provide specific parameters. Therefore, micro-seismic technology is integrated with history matching to predict the hydraulic fracture parameters in this paper. Micro-seismic source location is used to describe the basic shape of hydraulic fractures. After that, secondary modeling is considered to calibrate the parameters information of hydraulic fractures by using DFM (discrete fracture model) and history matching method. In consideration of fractal feature of hydraulic fracture, fractal fracture network model is established to evaluate this method in numerical experiment. The results clearly show the effectiveness of the proposed approach to estimate the parameters of hydraulic fractures.

From LCAs to simplified models: a generic methodology applied to wind power electricity.

PubMed

Padey, Pierryves; Girard, Robin; le Boulch, Denis; Blanc, Isabelle

2013-02-05

This study presents a generic methodology to produce simplified models able to provide a comprehensive life cycle impact assessment of energy pathways. The methodology relies on the application of global sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters explaining the impact variability of systems over their life cycle. Simplified models are built upon the identification of such key parameters. The methodology is applied to one energy pathway: onshore wind turbines of medium size considering a large sample of possible configurations representative of European conditions. Among several technological, geographical, and methodological parameters, we identified the turbine load factor and the wind turbine lifetime as the most influent parameters. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) performances have been plotted as a function of these key parameters identified. Using these curves, GHG performances of a specific wind turbine can be estimated, thus avoiding the undertaking of an extensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This methodology should be useful for decisions makers, providing them a robust but simple support tool for assessing the environmental performance of energy systems.

Task inhibition, conflict, and the n-2 repetition cost: A combined computational and empirical approach.

PubMed

Sexton, Nicholas J; Cooper, Richard P

2017-05-01

Task inhibition (also known as backward inhibition) is an hypothesised form of cognitive inhibition evident in multi-task situations, with the role of facilitating switching between multiple, competing tasks. This article presents a novel cognitive computational model of a backward inhibition mechanism. By combining aspects of previous cognitive models in task switching and conflict monitoring, the model instantiates the theoretical proposal that backward inhibition is the direct result of conflict between multiple task representations. In a first simulation, we demonstrate that the model produces two effects widely observed in the empirical literature, specifically, reaction time costs for both (n-1) task switches and n-2 task repeats. Through a systematic search of parameter space, we demonstrate that these effects are a general property of the model's theoretical content, and not specific parameter settings. We further demonstrate that the model captures previously reported empirical effects of inter-trial interval on n-2 switch costs. A final simulation extends the paradigm of switching between tasks of asymmetric difficulty to three tasks, and generates novel predictions for n-2 repetition costs. Specifically, the model predicts that n-2 repetition costs associated with hard-easy-hard alternations are greater than for easy-hard-easy alternations. Finally, we report two behavioural experiments testing this hypothesis, with results consistent with the model predictions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Subject-specific finite element modelling of the human foot complex during walking: sensitivity analysis of material properties, boundary and loading conditions.

PubMed

Akrami, Mohammad; Qian, Zhihui; Zou, Zhemin; Howard, David; Nester, Chris J; Ren, Lei

2018-04-01

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a subject-specific framework for modelling the human foot. This was achieved by integrating medical image-based finite element modelling, individualised multi-body musculoskeletal modelling and 3D gait measurements. A 3D ankle-foot finite element model comprising all major foot structures was constructed based on MRI of one individual. A multi-body musculoskeletal model and 3D gait measurements for the same subject were used to define loading and boundary conditions. Sensitivity analyses were used to investigate the effects of key modelling parameters on model predictions. Prediction errors of average and peak plantar pressures were below 10% in all ten plantar regions at five key gait events with only one exception (lateral heel, in early stance, error of 14.44%). The sensitivity analyses results suggest that predictions of peak plantar pressures are moderately sensitive to material properties, ground reaction forces and muscle forces, and significantly sensitive to foot orientation. The maximum region-specific percentage change ratios (peak stress percentage change over parameter percentage change) were 1.935-2.258 for ground reaction forces, 1.528-2.727 for plantar flexor muscles and 4.84-11.37 for foot orientations. This strongly suggests that loading and boundary conditions need to be very carefully defined based on personalised measurement data.

Muscle Synergies May Improve Optimization Prediction of Knee Contact Forces During Walking

PubMed Central

Walter, Jonathan P.; Kinney, Allison L.; Banks, Scott A.; D'Lima, Darryl D.; Besier, Thor F.; Lloyd, David G.; Fregly, Benjamin J.

2014-01-01

The ability to predict patient-specific joint contact and muscle forces accurately could improve the treatment of walking-related disorders. Muscle synergy analysis, which decomposes a large number of muscle electromyographic (EMG) signals into a small number of synergy control signals, could reduce the dimensionality and thus redundancy of the muscle and contact force prediction process. This study investigated whether use of subject-specific synergy controls can improve optimization prediction of knee contact forces during walking. To generate the predictions, we performed mixed dynamic muscle force optimizations (i.e., inverse skeletal dynamics with forward muscle activation and contraction dynamics) using data collected from a subject implanted with a force-measuring knee replacement. Twelve optimization problems (three cases with four subcases each) that minimized the sum of squares of muscle excitations were formulated to investigate how synergy controls affect knee contact force predictions. The three cases were: (1) Calibrate+Match where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously matched, (2) Precalibrate+Predict where experimental knee contact forces were predicted using precalibrated muscle model parameters values from the first case, and (3) Calibrate+Predict where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously predicted, all while matching inverse dynamic loads at the hip, knee, and ankle. The four subcases used either 44 independent controls or five synergy controls with and without EMG shape tracking. For the Calibrate+Match case, all four subcases closely reproduced the measured medial and lateral knee contact forces (R2 ≥ 0.94, root-mean-square (RMS) error < 66 N), indicating sufficient model fidelity for contact force prediction. For the Precalibrate+Predict and Calibrate+Predict cases, synergy controls yielded better contact force predictions (0.61 < R2 < 0.90, 83 N < RMS error < 161 N) than did independent controls (-0.15 < R2 < 0.79, 124 N < RMS error < 343 N) for corresponding subcases. For independent controls, contact force predictions improved when precalibrated model parameter values or EMG shape tracking was used. For synergy controls, contact force predictions were relatively insensitive to how model parameter values were calibrated, while EMG shape tracking made lateral (but not medial) contact force predictions worse. For the subject and optimization cost function analyzed in this study, use of subject-specific synergy controls improved the accuracy of knee contact force predictions, especially for lateral contact force when EMG shape tracking was omitted, and reduced prediction sensitivity to uncertainties in muscle model parameter values. PMID:24402438

Muscle synergies may improve optimization prediction of knee contact forces during walking.

PubMed

Walter, Jonathan P; Kinney, Allison L; Banks, Scott A; D'Lima, Darryl D; Besier, Thor F; Lloyd, David G; Fregly, Benjamin J

2014-02-01

The ability to predict patient-specific joint contact and muscle forces accurately could improve the treatment of walking-related disorders. Muscle synergy analysis, which decomposes a large number of muscle electromyographic (EMG) signals into a small number of synergy control signals, could reduce the dimensionality and thus redundancy of the muscle and contact force prediction process. This study investigated whether use of subject-specific synergy controls can improve optimization prediction of knee contact forces during walking. To generate the predictions, we performed mixed dynamic muscle force optimizations (i.e., inverse skeletal dynamics with forward muscle activation and contraction dynamics) using data collected from a subject implanted with a force-measuring knee replacement. Twelve optimization problems (three cases with four subcases each) that minimized the sum of squares of muscle excitations were formulated to investigate how synergy controls affect knee contact force predictions. The three cases were: (1) Calibrate+Match where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously matched, (2) Precalibrate+Predict where experimental knee contact forces were predicted using precalibrated muscle model parameters values from the first case, and (3) Calibrate+Predict where muscle model parameter values were calibrated and experimental knee contact forces were simultaneously predicted, all while matching inverse dynamic loads at the hip, knee, and ankle. The four subcases used either 44 independent controls or five synergy controls with and without EMG shape tracking. For the Calibrate+Match case, all four subcases closely reproduced the measured medial and lateral knee contact forces (R2 ≥ 0.94, root-mean-square (RMS) error < 66 N), indicating sufficient model fidelity for contact force prediction. For the Precalibrate+Predict and Calibrate+Predict cases, synergy controls yielded better contact force predictions (0.61 < R2 < 0.90, 83 N < RMS error < 161 N) than did independent controls (-0.15 < R2 < 0.79, 124 N < RMS error < 343 N) for corresponding subcases. For independent controls, contact force predictions improved when precalibrated model parameter values or EMG shape tracking was used. For synergy controls, contact force predictions were relatively insensitive to how model parameter values were calibrated, while EMG shape tracking made lateral (but not medial) contact force predictions worse. For the subject and optimization cost function analyzed in this study, use of subject-specific synergy controls improved the accuracy of knee contact force predictions, especially for lateral contact force when EMG shape tracking was omitted, and reduced prediction sensitivity to uncertainties in muscle model parameter values.

Generalized classes of continuous symmetries in two-mode Dicke models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moodie, Ryan I.; Ballantine, Kyle E.; Keeling, Jonathan

2018-03-01

As recently realized experimentally [Nature (London) 543, 87 (2017), 10.1038/nature21067], one can engineer models with continuous symmetries by coupling two cavity modes to trapped atoms via a Raman pumping geometry. Considering specifically cases where internal states of the atoms couple to the cavity, we show an extended range of parameters for which continuous symmetry breaking can occur, and we classify the distinct steady states and time-dependent states that arise for different points in this extended parameter regime.

Performance of Bootstrapping Approaches To Model Test Statistics and Parameter Standard Error Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevitt, Jonathan; Hancock, Gregory R.

2001-01-01

Evaluated the bootstrap method under varying conditions of nonnormality, sample size, model specification, and number of bootstrap samples drawn from the resampling space. Results for the bootstrap suggest the resampling-based method may be conservative in its control over model rejections, thus having an impact on the statistical power associated…

Biomass viability: An experimental study and the development of an empirical mathematical model for submerged membrane bioreactor.

PubMed

Zuthi, M F R; Ngo, H H; Guo, W S; Nghiem, L D; Hai, F I; Xia, S Q; Zhang, Z Q; Li, J X

2015-08-01

This study investigates the influence of key biomass parameters on specific oxygen uptake rate (SOUR) in a sponge submerged membrane bioreactor (SSMBR) to develop mathematical models of biomass viability. Extra-cellular polymeric substances (EPS) were considered as a lumped parameter of bound EPS (bEPS) and soluble microbial products (SMP). Statistical analyses of experimental results indicate that the bEPS, SMP, mixed liquor suspended solids and volatile suspended solids (MLSS and MLVSS) have functional relationships with SOUR and their relative influence on SOUR was in the order of EPS>bEPS>SMP>MLVSS/MLSS. Based on correlations among biomass parameters and SOUR, two independent empirical models of biomass viability were developed. The models were validated using results of the SSMBR. However, further validation of the models for different operating conditions is suggested. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-order sliding-mode control for blood glucose regulation in the presence of uncertain dynamics.

PubMed

Hernández, Ana Gabriela Gallardo; Fridman, Leonid; Leder, Ron; Andrade, Sergio Islas; Monsalve, Cristina Revilla; Shtessel, Yuri; Levant, Arie

2011-01-01

The success of blood glucose automatic regulation depends on the robustness of the control algorithm used. It is a difficult task to perform due to the complexity of the glucose-insulin regulation system. The variety of model existing reflects the great amount of phenomena involved in the process, and the inter-patient variability of the parameters represent another challenge. In this research a High-Order Sliding-Mode Control is proposed. It is applied to two well known models, Bergman Minimal Model, and Sorensen Model, to test its robustness with respect to uncertain dynamics, and patients' parameter variability. The controller designed based on the simulations is tested with the specific Bergman Minimal Model of a diabetic patient whose parameters were identified from an in vivo assay. To minimize the insulin infusion rate, and avoid the hypoglycemia risk, the glucose target is a dynamical profile.

Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily

2013-04-01

Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia, and independent model evaluation on regional level is necessary to identify "better than average" GCMs. • Each of the ensembles combining results from several "better than average" models replicate selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes better than any single GCM. The ensemble skills are parameter-specific and depend on models it consists of. The best results are not necessarily those based on the ensemble comprised by all "better than average" models. • Comprehensive evaluation of climatic scenarios using specific criteria narrows the range of uncertainties in environmental projections.

Ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation for treatment of mesoscale model error: A real-data study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Zhang, Fuqing; Nielsen-Gammon, John W.

2010-04-01

This study explores the treatment of model error and uncertainties through simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the simulation of a 2006 air pollution event over the greater Houston area during the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS-II). Two parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer parameterization associated with large model sensitivities are combined with standard prognostic variables in an augmented state vector to be continuously updated through assimilation of wind profiler observations. It is found that forecasts of the atmosphere with EnKF/SSPE are markedly improved over experiments with no state and/or parameter estimation. More specifically, the EnKF/SSPE is shown to help alleviate a near-surface cold bias and to alter the momentum mixing in the boundary layer to produce more realistic wind profiles.

Application of Differential Evolutionary Optimization Methodology for Parameter Structure Identification in Groundwater Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Y.; Nishikawa, T.

2013-12-01

With the increasing complexity of parameter-structure identification (PSI) in groundwater modeling, there is a need for robust, fast, and accurate optimizers in the groundwater-hydrology field. For this work, PSI is defined as identifying parameter dimension, structure, and value. In this study, Voronoi tessellation and differential evolution (DE) are used to solve the optimal PSI problem. Voronoi tessellation is used for automatic parameterization, whereby stepwise regression and the error covariance matrix are used to determine the optimal parameter dimension. DE is a novel global optimizer that can be used to solve nonlinear, nondifferentiable, and multimodal optimization problems. It can be viewed as an improved version of genetic algorithms and employs a simple cycle of mutation, crossover, and selection operations. DE is used to estimate the optimal parameter structure and its associated values. A synthetic numerical experiment of continuous hydraulic conductivity distribution was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results indicate that DE can identify the global optimum effectively and efficiently. A sensitivity analysis of the control parameters (i.e., the population size, mutation scaling factor, crossover rate, and mutation schemes) was performed to examine their influence on the objective function. The proposed DE was then applied to solve a complex parameter-estimation problem for a small desert groundwater basin in Southern California. Hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, fault conductance, and recharge components were estimated simultaneously. Comparison of DE and a traditional gradient-based approach (PEST) shows DE to be more robust and efficient. The results of this work not only provide an alternative for PSI in groundwater models, but also extend DE applications towards solving complex, regional-scale water management optimization problems.

Suppression of Antigen-Specific Lymphocyte Activation in Simulated Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, David; Pride, Michael W.; Brown, Eric L.; Risin, Diana; Pellis, Neal R.

1999-01-01

Various parameters of immune suppression are observed in astronauts during and after spaceflight, and in isolated immune cells in true and simulated microgravity. Specifically, polyclonal activation of T cells is severely suppressed in true and simulated microgravity. These recent findings with various polyclonal activators suggests a suppression of oligoclonal lymphocyte activation in microgravity. We utilized rotating wall vessel (RWV) bioreactors that simulate aspects of microgravity for cell cultures to analyze three models of antigen-specific activation. A mixed-lymphocyte reaction (MLR), as a model for a primary immune response; a tetanus toxoid (TT) response and a B. burgdorferi (Bb) response, as models of a secondary immune response, were all suppressed in the RWV bioreactor. Our findings confirm that the suppression of activation observed with polyclonal models also encompasses oligoclonal antigen-specific activation.

Multiobjective Sensitivity Analysis Of Sediment And Nitrogen Processes With A Watershed Model

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a computational analysis for evaluating critical non-point-source sediment and nutrient (specifically nitrogen) processes and management actions at the watershed scale. In the analysis, model parameters that bear key uncertainties were presumed to reflect the ...

Experimental parameter identification of a multi-scale musculoskeletal model controlled by electrical stimulation: application to patients with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Benoussaad, Mourad; Poignet, Philippe; Hayashibe, Mitsuhiro; Azevedo-Coste, Christine; Fattal, Charles; Guiraud, David

2013-06-01

We investigated the parameter identification of a multi-scale physiological model of skeletal muscle, based on Huxley's formulation. We focused particularly on the knee joint controlled by quadriceps muscles under electrical stimulation (ES) in subjects with a complete spinal cord injury. A noninvasive and in vivo identification protocol was thus applied through surface stimulation in nine subjects and through neural stimulation in one ES-implanted subject. The identification protocol included initial identification steps, which are adaptations of existing identification techniques to estimate most of the parameters of our model. Then we applied an original and safer identification protocol in dynamic conditions, which required resolution of a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem to identify the serial element stiffness of quadriceps. Each identification step and cross validation of the estimated model in dynamic condition were evaluated through a quadratic error criterion. The results highlighted good accuracy, the efficiency of the identification protocol and the ability of the estimated model to predict the subject-specific behavior of the musculoskeletal system. From the comparison of parameter values between subjects, we discussed and explored the inter-subject variability of parameters in order to select parameters that have to be identified in each patient.

Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models.

PubMed

Cevik, Mucahit; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Stout, Natasha K; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Craven, Mark; Alagoz, Oguzhan

2016-07-01

Most cancer simulation models include unobservable parameters that determine disease onset and tumor growth. These parameters play an important role in matching key outcomes such as cancer incidence and mortality, and their values are typically estimated via a lengthy calibration procedure, which involves evaluating a large number of combinations of parameter values via simulation. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how machine learning approaches can be used to accelerate the calibration process by reducing the number of parameter combinations that are actually evaluated. Active learning is a popular machine learning method that enables a learning algorithm such as artificial neural networks to interactively choose which parameter combinations to evaluate. We developed an active learning algorithm to expedite the calibration process. Our algorithm determines the parameter combinations that are more likely to produce desired outputs and therefore reduces the number of simulation runs performed during calibration. We demonstrate our method using the previously developed University of Wisconsin breast cancer simulation model (UWBCS). In a recent study, calibration of the UWBCS required the evaluation of 378 000 input parameter combinations to build a race-specific model, and only 69 of these combinations produced results that closely matched observed data. By using the active learning algorithm in conjunction with standard calibration methods, we identify all 69 parameter combinations by evaluating only 5620 of the 378 000 combinations. Machine learning methods hold potential in guiding model developers in the selection of more promising parameter combinations and hence speeding up the calibration process. Applying our machine learning algorithm to one model shows that evaluating only 1.49% of all parameter combinations would be sufficient for the calibration. © The Author(s) 2015.

Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models

PubMed Central

Cevik, Mucahit; Ali Ergun, Mehmet; Stout, Natasha K.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Craven, Mark; Alagoz, Oguzhan

2015-01-01

Background Most cancer simulation models include unobservable parameters that determine the disease onset and tumor growth. These parameters play an important role in matching key outcomes such as cancer incidence and mortality and their values are typically estimated via lengthy calibration procedure, which involves evaluating large number of combinations of parameter values via simulation. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how machine learning approaches can be used to accelerate the calibration process by reducing the number of parameter combinations that are actually evaluated. Methods Active learning is a popular machine learning method that enables a learning algorithm such as artificial neural networks to interactively choose which parameter combinations to evaluate. We develop an active learning algorithm to expedite the calibration process. Our algorithm determines the parameter combinations that are more likely to produce desired outputs, therefore reduces the number of simulation runs performed during calibration. We demonstrate our method using previously developed University of Wisconsin Breast Cancer Simulation Model (UWBCS). Results In a recent study, calibration of the UWBCS required the evaluation of 378,000 input parameter combinations to build a race-specific model and only 69 of these combinations produced results that closely matched observed data. By using the active learning algorithm in conjunction with standard calibration methods, we identify all 69 parameter combinations by evaluating only 5620 of the 378,000 combinations. Conclusion Machine learning methods hold potential in guiding model developers in the selection of more promising parameter combinations and hence speeding up the calibration process. Applying our machine learning algorithm to one model shows that evaluating only 1.49% of all parameter combinations would be sufficient for the calibration. PMID:26471190

Dual-domain mass-transfer parameters from electrical hysteresis: theory and analytical approach applied to laboratory, synthetic streambed, and groundwater experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Ong, John B.; Harvey, Judson W.; Lane, John W.

2014-01-01

Models of dual-domain mass transfer (DDMT) are used to explain anomalous aquifer transport behavior such as the slow release of contamination and solute tracer tailing. Traditional tracer experiments to characterize DDMT are performed at the flow path scale (meters), which inherently incorporates heterogeneous exchange processes; hence, estimated “effective” parameters are sensitive to experimental design (i.e., duration and injection velocity). Recently, electrical geophysical methods have been used to aid in the inference of DDMT parameters because, unlike traditional fluid sampling, electrical methods can directly sense less-mobile solute dynamics and can target specific points along subsurface flow paths. Here we propose an analytical framework for graphical parameter inference based on a simple petrophysical model explaining the hysteretic relation between measurements of bulk and fluid conductivity arising in the presence of DDMT at the local scale. Analysis is graphical and involves visual inspection of hysteresis patterns to (1) determine the size of paired mobile and less-mobile porosities and (2) identify the exchange rate coefficient through simple curve fitting. We demonstrate the approach using laboratory column experimental data, synthetic streambed experimental data, and field tracer-test data. Results from the analytical approach compare favorably with results from calibration of numerical models and also independent measurements of mobile and less-mobile porosity. We show that localized electrical hysteresis patterns resulting from diffusive exchange are independent of injection velocity, indicating that repeatable parameters can be extracted under varied experimental designs, and these parameters represent the true intrinsic properties of specific volumes of porous media of aquifers and hyporheic zones.

Dual-domain mass-transfer parameters from electrical hysteresis: Theory and analytical approach applied to laboratory, synthetic streambed, and groundwater experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Martin A.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Ong, John B.; Harvey, Judson W.; Lane, John W.

2014-10-01

Models of dual-domain mass transfer (DDMT) are used to explain anomalous aquifer transport behavior such as the slow release of contamination and solute tracer tailing. Traditional tracer experiments to characterize DDMT are performed at the flow path scale (meters), which inherently incorporates heterogeneous exchange processes; hence, estimated "effective" parameters are sensitive to experimental design (i.e., duration and injection velocity). Recently, electrical geophysical methods have been used to aid in the inference of DDMT parameters because, unlike traditional fluid sampling, electrical methods can directly sense less-mobile solute dynamics and can target specific points along subsurface flow paths. Here we propose an analytical framework for graphical parameter inference based on a simple petrophysical model explaining the hysteretic relation between measurements of bulk and fluid conductivity arising in the presence of DDMT at the local scale. Analysis is graphical and involves visual inspection of hysteresis patterns to (1) determine the size of paired mobile and less-mobile porosities and (2) identify the exchange rate coefficient through simple curve fitting. We demonstrate the approach using laboratory column experimental data, synthetic streambed experimental data, and field tracer-test data. Results from the analytical approach compare favorably with results from calibration of numerical models and also independent measurements of mobile and less-mobile porosity. We show that localized electrical hysteresis patterns resulting from diffusive exchange are independent of injection velocity, indicating that repeatable parameters can be extracted under varied experimental designs, and these parameters represent the true intrinsic properties of specific volumes of porous media of aquifers and hyporheic zones.

Is a matrix exponential specification suitable for the modeling of spatial correlation structures?

PubMed Central

Strauß, Magdalena E.; Mezzetti, Maura; Leorato, Samantha

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the adequacy of the matrix exponential spatial specifications (MESS) as an alternative to the widely used spatial autoregressive models (SAR). To provide as complete a picture as possible, we extend the analysis to all the main spatial models governed by matrix exponentials comparing them with their spatial autoregressive counterparts. We propose a new implementation of Bayesian parameter estimation for the MESS model with vague prior distributions, which is shown to be precise and computationally efficient. Our implementations also account for spatially lagged regressors. We further allow for location-specific heterogeneity, which we model by including spatial splines. We conclude by comparing the performances of the different model specifications in applications to a real data set and by running simulations. Both the applications and the simulations suggest that the spatial splines are a flexible and efficient way to account for spatial heterogeneities governed by unknown mechanisms. PMID:29492375

Quantifying and predicting Drosophila larvae crawling phenotypes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Günther, Maximilian N.; Nettesheim, Guilherme; Shubeita, George T.

2016-06-01

The fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster is a widely used model for cell biology, development, disease, and neuroscience. The fly’s power as a genetic model for disease and neuroscience can be augmented by a quantitative description of its behavior. Here we show that we can accurately account for the complex and unique crawling patterns exhibited by individual Drosophila larvae using a small set of four parameters obtained from the trajectories of a few crawling larvae. The values of these parameters change for larvae from different genetic mutants, as we demonstrate for fly models of Alzheimer’s disease and the Fragile X syndrome, allowing applications such as genetic or drug screens. Using the quantitative model of larval crawling developed here we use the mutant-specific parameters to robustly simulate larval crawling, which allows estimating the feasibility of laborious experimental assays and aids in their design.

Sensitivity of Asteroid Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Dotson, Jessie L.; NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

2017-10-01

A central challenge in assessing the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty inherent throughout all aspects of the problem. Many asteroid properties are not well characterized and can range widely from strong, dense, monolithic irons to loosely bound, highly porous rubble piles. Even for an object of known properties, the specific entry velocity, angle, and impact location can swing the potential consequence from no damage to causing millions of casualties. Due to the extreme rarity of large asteroid strikes, there are also large uncertainties in how different types of asteroids will interact with the atmosphere during entry, how readily they may break up or ablate, and how much surface damage will be caused by the resulting airbursts or impacts.In this work, we use our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to uncertainties in key asteroid properties, entry parameters, or modeling assumptions. The PAIR model combines physics-based analytic models of asteroid entry and damage in a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework to assess the risk posed by a wide range of potential impacts. The model samples from uncertainty distributions of asteroid properties and entry parameters to generate millions of specific impact cases, and models the atmospheric entry and damage for each case, including blast overpressure, thermal radiation, tsunami inundation, and global effects. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix and vary the different input parameters and compare the effect on the resulting range of damage produced. The goal of these studies is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

Neuromusculoskeletal model self-calibration for on-line sequential bayesian moment estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bueno, Diana R.; Montano, L.

2017-04-01

Objective. Neuromusculoskeletal models involve many subject-specific physiological parameters that need to be adjusted to adequately represent muscle properties. Traditionally, neuromusculoskeletal models have been calibrated with a forward-inverse dynamic optimization which is time-consuming and unfeasible for rehabilitation therapy. Non self-calibration algorithms have been applied to these models. To the best of our knowledge, the algorithm proposed in this work is the first on-line calibration algorithm for muscle models that allows a generic model to be adjusted to different subjects in a few steps. Approach. In this paper we propose a reformulation of the traditional muscle models that is able to sequentially estimate the kinetics (net joint moments), and also its full self-calibration (subject-specific internal parameters of the muscle from a set of arbitrary uncalibrated data), based on the unscented Kalman filter. The nonlinearity of the model as well as its calibration problem have obliged us to adopt the sum of Gaussians filter suitable for nonlinear systems. Main results. This sequential Bayesian self-calibration algorithm achieves a complete muscle model calibration using as input only a dataset of uncalibrated sEMG and kinematics data. The approach is validated experimentally using data from the upper limbs of 21 subjects. Significance. The results show the feasibility of neuromusculoskeletal model self-calibration. This study will contribute to a better understanding of the generalization of muscle models for subject-specific rehabilitation therapies. Moreover, this work is very promising for rehabilitation devices such as electromyography-driven exoskeletons or prostheses.

Influence of the model's degree of freedom on human body dynamics identification.

PubMed

Maita, Daichi; Venture, Gentiane

2013-01-01

In fields of sports and rehabilitation, opportunities of using motion analysis of the human body have dramatically increased. To analyze the motion dynamics, a number of subject specific parameters and measurements are required. For example the contact forces measurement and the inertial parameters of each segment of the human body are necessary to compute the joint torques. In this study, in order to perform accurate dynamic analysis we propose to identify the inertial parameters of the human body and to evaluate the influence of the model's number of degrees of freedom (DoF) on the results. We use a method to estimate the inertial parameters without torque sensor, using generalized coordinates of the base link, joint angles and external forces information. We consider a 34DoF model, a 58DoF model, as well as the case when the human is manipulating a tool (here a tennis racket). We compare the obtained in results in terms of contact force estimation.

Investigation of the influence of spatial degrees of freedom on thermal infrared measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleuret, Julien R.; Yousefi, Bardia; Lei, Lei; Djupkep Dizeu, Frank Billy; Zhang, Hai; Sfarra, Stefano; Ouellet, Denis; Maldague, Xavier P. V.

2017-05-01

Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) cameras can provide a representation of a part of the light spectrum that is sensitive to temperature. These cameras also named Thermal Infrared (TIR) cameras are powerful tools to detect features that cannot be seen by other imaging technologies. For instance they enable defect detection in material, fever and anxiety in mammals and many other features for numerous applications. However, the accuracy of thermal cameras can be affected by many parameters; the most critical involves the relative position of the camera with respect to the object of interest. Several models have been proposed in order to minimize the influence of some of the parameters but they are mostly related to specific applications. Because such models are based on some prior informations related to context, their applicability to other contexts cannot be easily assessed. The few models remaining are mostly associated with a specific device. In this paper the authors studied the influence of the camera position on the measurement accuracy. Modeling of the position of the camera from the object of interest depends on many parameters. In order to propose a study which is as accurate as possible, the position of the camera will be represented as a five dimensions model. The aim of this study is to investigate and attempt to introduce a model which is as independent from the device as possible.

Seizure prediction in hippocampal and neocortical epilepsy using a model-based approach

PubMed Central

Aarabi, Ardalan; He, Bin

2014-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study is to develop a model based seizure prediction method. Methods A neural mass model was used to simulate the macro-scale dynamics of intracranial EEG data. The model was composed of pyramidal cells, excitatory and inhibitory interneurons described through state equations. Twelve model’s parameters were estimated by fitting the model to the power spectral density of intracranial EEG signals and then integrated based on information obtained by investigating changes in the parameters prior to seizures. Twenty-one patients with medically intractable hippocampal and neocortical focal epilepsy were studied. Results Tuned to obtain maximum sensitivity, an average sensitivity of 87.07% and 92.6% with an average false prediction rate of 0.2 and 0.15/h were achieved using maximum seizure occurrence periods of 30 and 50 min and a minimum seizure prediction horizon of 10 s, respectively. Under maximum specificity conditions, the system sensitivity decreased to 82.9% and 90.05% and the false prediction rates were reduced to 0.16 and 0.12/h using maximum seizure occurrence periods of 30 and 50 min, respectively. Conclusions The spatio-temporal changes in the parameters demonstrated patient-specific preictal signatures that could be used for seizure prediction. Significance The present findings suggest that the model-based approach may aid prediction of seizures. PMID:24374087

TIM Version 3.0 beta Technical Description and User Guide - Appendix A - User's Guidance for TIM v.3.0(beta)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Provides detailed guidance to the user on how to select input parameters for running the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM) and recommendations for default values that can be used when no chemical-specific or species-specific information are available.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raoult, Nina M.; Jupp, Tim E.; Cox, Peter M.

Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to make coupled climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. JULES is also extensively used offline as a land-surface impacts tool, forced with climatologies into the future. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated with respect to JULES parameters using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimationmore » system has been developed to search for locally optimum parameters by calibrating against observations. This paper describes adJULES in a data assimilation framework and demonstrates its ability to improve the model–data fit using eddy-covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the five plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES at over 85 % of the sites used in the study, at both the calibration and evaluation stages. Furthermore, the new improved parameters for JULES are presented along with the associated uncertainties for each parameter.« less

Hydrogen from coal cost estimation guidebook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billings, R. E.

1981-01-01

In an effort to establish baseline information whereby specific projects can be evaluated, a current set of parameters which are typical of coal gasification applications was developed. Using these parameters a computer model allows researchers to interrelate cost components in a sensitivity analysis. The results make possible an approximate estimation of hydrogen energy economics from coal, under a variety of circumstances.

Macular versus Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Parameters for Diagnosing Manifest Glaucoma: A Systematic Review of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Oddone, Francesco; Lucenteforte, Ersilia; Michelessi, Manuele; Rizzo, Stanislao; Donati, Simone; Parravano, Mariacristina; Virgili, Gianni

2016-05-01

Macular parameters have been proposed as an alternative to retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) parameters to diagnose glaucoma. Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of macular parameters, specifically the ganglion cell complex (GCC) and ganglion cell inner plexiform layer (GCIPL), with the accuracy of RNFL parameters for detecting manifest glaucoma is important to guide clinical practice and future research. Studies using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD OCT) and reporting macular parameters were included if they allowed the extraction of accuracy data for diagnosing manifest glaucoma, as confirmed with automated perimetry or a clinician's optic nerve head (ONH) assessment. Cross-sectional cohort studies and case-control studies were included. The QUADAS 2 tool was used to assess methodological quality. Only direct comparisons of macular versus RNFL parameters (i.e., in the same study) were conducted. Summary sensitivity and specificity of each macular or RNFL parameter were reported, and the relative diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was calculated in hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) models to compare them. Thirty-four studies investigated macular parameters using RTVue OCT (Optovue Inc., Fremont, CA) (19 studies, 3094 subjects), Cirrus OCT (Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc., Dublin, CA) (14 studies, 2164 subjects), or 3D Topcon OCT (Topcon, Inc., Tokyo, Japan) (4 studies, 522 subjects). Thirty-two of these studies allowed comparisons between macular and RNFL parameters. Studies generally reported sensitivities at fixed specificities, more commonly 0.90 or 0.95, with sensitivities of most best-performing parameters between 0.65 and 0.75. For all OCT devices, compared with RNFL parameters, macular parameters were similarly or slightly less accurate for detecting glaucoma at the highest reported specificity, which was confirmed in analyses at the lowest specificity. Included studies suffered from limitations, especially the case-control study design, which is known to overestimate accuracy. However, this flaw is less relevant as a source of bias in direct comparisons conducted within studies. With the use of OCT, RNFL parameters are still preferable to macular parameters for diagnosing manifest glaucoma, but the differences are small. Because of high heterogeneity, direct comparative or randomized studies of OCT devices or OCT parameters and diagnostic strategies are essential. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SUMMA and Model Mimicry: Understanding Differences Among Land Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Ou, G.; Clark, M. P.

2016-12-01

Model inter-comparison and model ensemble experiments suffer from an inability to explain the mechanisms behind differences in model outcomes. We can clearly demonstrate that the models are different, but we cannot necessarily identify the reasons why, because most models exhibit myriad differences in process representations, model parameterizations, model parameters and numerical solution methods. This inability to identify the reasons for differences in model performance hampers our understanding and limits model improvement, because we cannot easily identify the most promising paths forward. We have developed the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) to allow for controlled experimentation with model construction, numerical techniques, and parameter values and therefore isolate differences in model outcomes to specific choices during the model development process. In developing SUMMA, we recognized that hydrologic models can be thought of as individual instantiations of a master modeling template that is based on a common set of conservation equations for energy and water. Given this perspective, SUMMA provides a unified approach to hydrologic modeling that integrates different modeling methods into a consistent structure with the ability to instantiate alternative hydrologic models at runtime. Here we employ SUMMA to revisit a previous multi-model experiment and demonstrate its use for understanding differences in model performance. Specifically, we implement SUMMA to mimic the spread of behaviors exhibited by the land models that participated in the Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) and draw conclusions about the relative performance of specific model parameterizations for water and energy fluxes through the soil-vegetation continuum. SUMMA's ability to mimic the spread of model ensembles and the behavior of individual models can be an important tool in focusing model development and improvement efforts.

Development of a parameter optimization technique for the design of automatic control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitaker, P. H.

1977-01-01

Parameter optimization techniques for the design of linear automatic control systems that are applicable to both continuous and digital systems are described. The model performance index is used as the optimization criterion because of the physical insight that can be attached to it. The design emphasis is to start with the simplest system configuration that experience indicates would be practical. Design parameters are specified, and a digital computer program is used to select that set of parameter values which minimizes the performance index. The resulting design is examined, and complexity, through the use of more complex information processing or more feedback paths, is added only if performance fails to meet operational specifications. System performance specifications are assumed to be such that the desired step function time response of the system can be inferred.

Historical HIV incidence modelling in regional subgroups: use of flexible discrete models with penalized splines based on prior curves.

PubMed

Greenland, S

1996-03-15

This paper presents an approach to back-projection (back-calculation) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) person-year infection rates in regional subgroups based on combining a log-linear model for subgroup differences with a penalized spline model for trends. The penalized spline approach allows flexible trend estimation but requires far fewer parameters than fully non-parametric smoothers, thus saving parameters that can be used in estimating subgroup effects. Use of reasonable prior curve to construct the penalty function minimizes the degree of smoothing needed beyond model specification. The approach is illustrated in application to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) surveillance data from Los Angeles County.

A MULTISCALE FRAMEWORK FOR THE STOCHASTIC ASSIMILATION AND MODELING OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED NCF COMPOSITE MATERIALS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mehrez, Loujaine; Ghanem, Roger; McAuliffe, Colin

multiscale framework to construct stochastic macroscopic constitutive material models is proposed. A spectral projection approach, specifically polynomial chaos expansion, has been used to construct explicit functional relationships between the homogenized properties and input parameters from finer scales. A homogenization engine embedded in Multiscale Designer, software for composite materials, has been used for the upscaling process. The framework is demonstrated using non-crimp fabric composite materials by constructing probabilistic models of the homogenized properties of a non-crimp fabric laminate in terms of the input parameters together with the homogenized properties from finer scales.

Modeling transmission parameters of polymer microstructured fibers for applications in FTTH networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gdula, P.; Welikow, K.; Szczepański, P.; Buczyński, R.; Piramidowicz, R.

2011-10-01

This paper is focused on selected aspects of designing and modeling of transmission parameters of plastic optical fibers (POFs), considered in the context of their potential applications in optical access networks and, specifically, in Fiber-To- The-Home (FTTH) systems. The survey of state-of-the-art solutions is presented and possibility of improving transmission properties of POFs by microstructurization is discussed on the basis of the first results of numerical modeling. In particular, the microstructured POF was designed supporting propagation of limited number of modes while keeping relatively large mode area and, simultaneously, significantly lowered bending losses.

New Agegraphic Pilgrim Dark Energy in f(T, TG) Gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jawad, Abdul; Debnath, Ujjal

2015-08-01

In this work, we briefly discuss a novel class of modified gravity like f(T, TG) gravity. In this background, we assume the new agegraphic version of pilgrim dark energy and reconstruct f(T, TG) models for two specific values of s. We also discuss the equation of state parameter, squared speed of sound and wDE-w‧DE plane for these reconstructed f(T, TG) models. The equation of state parameter provides phantom-like behavior of the universe. The wDE-w‧DE plane also corresponds to ΛCDM limit, thawing and freezing regions for both models.

PET Pharmacokinetic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller-Schauenburg, Wolfgang; Reimold, Matthias

Positron Emission Tomography is a well-established technique that allows imaging and quantification of tissue properties in-vivo. The goal of pharmacokinetic modelling is to estimate physiological parameters, e.g. perfusion or receptor density from the measured time course of a radiotracer. After a brief overview of clinical application of PET, we summarize the fundamentals of modelling: distribution volume, Fick's principle of local balancing, extraction and perfusion, and how to calculate equilibrium data from measurements after bolus injection. Three fundamental models are considered: (i) the 1-tissue compartment model, e.g. for regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) with the short-lived tracer [15O]water, (ii) the 2-tissue compartment model accounting for trapping (one exponential + constant), e.g. for glucose metabolism with [18F]FDG, (iii) the reversible 2-tissue compartment model (two exponentials), e.g. for receptor binding. Arterial blood sampling is required for classical PET modelling, but can often be avoided by comparing regions with specific binding with so called reference regions with negligible specific uptake, e.g. in receptor imaging. To estimate the model parameters, non-linear least square fits are the standard. Various linearizations have been proposed for rapid parameter estimation, e.g. on a pixel-by-pixel basis, for the prize of a bias. Such linear approaches exist for all three models; e.g. the PATLAK-plot for trapping substances like FDG, and the LOGAN-plot to obtain distribution volumes for reversibly binding tracers. The description of receptor modelling is dedicated to the approaches of the subsequent lecture (chapter) of Millet, who works in the tradition of Delforge with multiple-injection investigations.

“Transference Ratios” to Predict Total Oxidized Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition – Part II, Modeling Results

EPA Science Inventory

The current study examines predictions of transference ratios and related modeled parameters for oxidized sulfur and oxidized nitrogen using five years (2002-2006) of 12-km grid cell-specific annual estimates from EPA’s Community Air Quality Model (CMAQ) for five selected sub-re...

Comparing Latent Structures of the Grade of Membership, Rasch, and Latent Class Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erosheva, Elena A.

2005-01-01

This paper focuses on model interpretation issues and employs a geometric approach to compare the potential value of using the Grade of Membership (GoM) model in representing population heterogeneity. We consider population heterogeneity manifolds generated by letting subject specific parameters vary over their natural range, while keeping other…

Does WEPP meet the specificity of soil erosion in steep mountain regions?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We chose the USDA-ARS-WEPP model (Water Erosion Prediction Project) to describe the soil erosion in the Urseren valley (Central Switzerland) as it seems to be one of the most promising models for steep mountain environments. Crucial model parameters were determined in the field (slope, plant species...

Modeling an alkaline electrolysis cell through reduced-order and loss-estimate approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milewski, Jaroslaw; Guandalini, Giulio; Campanari, Stefano

2014-12-01

The paper presents two approaches to the mathematical modeling of an Alkaline Electrolyzer Cell. The presented models were compared and validated against available experimental results taken from a laboratory test and against literature data. The first modeling approach is based on the analysis of estimated losses due to the different phenomena occurring inside the electrolytic cell, and requires careful calibration of several specific parameters (e.g. those related to the electrochemical behavior of the electrodes) some of which could be hard to define. An alternative approach is based on a reduced-order equivalent circuit, resulting in only two fitting parameters (electrodes specific resistance and parasitic losses) and calculation of the internal electric resistance of the electrolyte. Both models yield satisfactory results with an average error limited below 3% vs. the considered experimental data and show the capability to describe with sufficient accuracy the different operating conditions of the electrolyzer; the reduced-order model could be preferred thanks to its simplicity for implementation within plant simulation tools dealing with complex systems, such as electrolyzers coupled with storage facilities and intermittent renewable energy sources.

Transmission parameters estimated for Salmonella typhimurium in swine using susceptible-infectious-resistant models and a Bayesian approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Transmission models can aid understanding of disease dynamics and are useful in testing the efficiency of control measures. The aim of this study was to formulate an appropriate stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Resistant/Carrier (SIR) model for Salmonella Typhimurium in pigs and thus estimate the transmission parameters between states. Results The transmission parameters were estimated using data from a longitudinal study of three Danish farrow-to-finish pig herds known to be infected. A Bayesian model framework was proposed, which comprised Binomial components for the transition from susceptible to infectious and from infectious to carrier; and a Poisson component for carrier to infectious. Cohort random effects were incorporated into these models to allow for unobserved cohort-specific variables as well as unobserved sources of transmission, thus enabling a more realistic estimation of the transmission parameters. In the case of the transition from susceptible to infectious, the cohort random effects were also time varying. The number of infectious pigs not detected by the parallel testing was treated as unknown, and the probability of non-detection was estimated using information about the sensitivity and specificity of the bacteriological and serological tests. The estimate of the transmission rate from susceptible to infectious was 0.33 [0.06, 1.52], from infectious to carrier was 0.18 [0.14, 0.23] and from carrier to infectious was 0.01 [0.0001, 0.04]. The estimate for the basic reproduction ration (R 0 ) was 1.91 [0.78, 5.24]. The probability of non-detection was estimated to be 0.18 [0.12, 0.25]. Conclusions The proposed framework for stochastic SIR models was successfully implemented to estimate transmission rate parameters for Salmonella Typhimurium in swine field data. R 0 was 1.91, implying that there was dissemination of the infection within pigs of the same cohort. There was significant temporal-cohort variability, especially at the susceptible to infectious stage. The model adequately fitted the data, allowing for both observed and unobserved sources of uncertainty (cohort effects, diagnostic test sensitivity), so leading to more reliable estimates of transmission parameters. PMID:24774444

A4 flavour model for Dirac neutrinos: Type I and inverse seesaw

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borah, Debasish; Karmakar, Biswajit

2018-05-01

We propose two different seesaw models namely, type I and inverse seesaw to realise light Dirac neutrinos within the framework of A4 discrete flavour symmetry. The additional fields and their transformations under the flavour symmetries are chosen in such a way that naturally predicts the hierarchies of different elements of the seesaw mass matrices in these two types of seesaw mechanisms. For generic choices of flavon alignments, both the models predict normal hierarchical light neutrino masses with the atmospheric mixing angle in the lower octant. Apart from predicting interesting correlations between different neutrino parameters as well as between neutrino and model parameters, the model also predicts the leptonic Dirac CP phase to lie in a specific range - π / 3 to π / 3. While the type I seesaw model predicts smaller values of absolute neutrino mass, the inverse seesaw predictions for the absolute neutrino masses can saturate the cosmological upper bound on sum of absolute neutrino masses for certain choices of model parameters.

Dynamic modelling and parameter estimation of a hydraulic robot manipulator using a multi-objective genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montazeri, A.; West, C.; Monk, S. D.; Taylor, C. J.

2017-04-01

This paper concerns the problem of dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a seven degree of freedom hydraulic manipulator. The laboratory example is a dual-manipulator mobile robotic platform used for research into nuclear decommissioning. In contrast to earlier control model-orientated research using the same machine, the paper develops a nonlinear, mechanistic simulation model that can subsequently be used to investigate physically meaningful disturbances. The second contribution is to optimise the parameters of the new model, i.e. to determine reliable estimates of the physical parameters of a complex robotic arm which are not known in advance. To address the nonlinear and non-convex nature of the problem, the research relies on the multi-objectivisation of an output error single-performance index. The developed algorithm utilises a multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) in order to find a proper solution. The performance of the model and the GA is evaluated using both simulated (i.e. with a known set of 'true' parameters) and experimental data. Both simulation and experimental results show that multi-objectivisation has improved convergence of the estimated parameters compared to the single-objective output error problem formulation. This is achieved by integrating the validation phase inside the algorithm implicitly and exploiting the inherent structure of the multi-objective GA for this specific system identification problem.

Land-surface parameter optimisation using data assimilation techniques: the adJULES system V1.0

DOE PAGES

Raoult, Nina M.; Jupp, Tim E.; Cox, Peter M.; ...

2016-08-25

Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to make coupled climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. JULES is also extensively used offline as a land-surface impacts tool, forced with climatologies into the future. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated with respect to JULES parameters using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimationmore » system has been developed to search for locally optimum parameters by calibrating against observations. This paper describes adJULES in a data assimilation framework and demonstrates its ability to improve the model–data fit using eddy-covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the five plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES at over 85 % of the sites used in the study, at both the calibration and evaluation stages. Furthermore, the new improved parameters for JULES are presented along with the associated uncertainties for each parameter.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chremos, Alexandros, E-mail: achremos@imperial.ac.uk; Nikoubashman, Arash, E-mail: arashn@princeton.edu; Panagiotopoulos, Athanassios Z.

In this contribution, we develop a coarse-graining methodology for mapping specific block copolymer systems to bead-spring particle-based models. We map the constituent Kuhn segments to Lennard-Jones particles, and establish a semi-empirical correlation between the experimentally determined Flory-Huggins parameter χ and the interaction of the model potential. For these purposes, we have performed an extensive set of isobaric–isothermal Monte Carlo simulations of binary mixtures of Lennard-Jones particles with the same size but with asymmetric energetic parameters. The phase behavior of these monomeric mixtures is then extended to chains with finite sizes through theoretical considerations. Such a top-down coarse-graining approach is importantmore » from a computational point of view, since many characteristic features of block copolymer systems are on time and length scales which are still inaccessible through fully atomistic simulations. We demonstrate the applicability of our method for generating parameters by reproducing the morphology diagram of a specific diblock copolymer, namely, poly(styrene-b-methyl methacrylate), which has been extensively studied in experiments.« less

SU-F-R-46: Predicting Distant Failure in Lung SBRT Using Multi-Objective Radiomics Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Z; Folkert, M; Iyengar, P

2016-06-15

Purpose: To predict distant failure in lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by using a new multi-objective radiomics model. Methods: Currently, most available radiomics models use the overall accuracy as the objective function. However, due to data imbalance, a single object may not reflect the performance of a predictive model. Therefore, we developed a multi-objective radiomics model which considers both sensitivity and specificity as the objective functions simultaneously. The new model is used to predict distant failure in lung SBRT using 52 patients treated at our institute. Quantitative imaging features of PETmore » and CT as well as clinical parameters are utilized to build the predictive model. Image features include intensity features (9), textural features (12) and geometric features (8). Clinical parameters for each patient include demographic parameters (4), tumor characteristics (8), treatment faction schemes (4) and pretreatment medicines (6). The modelling procedure consists of two steps: extracting features from segmented tumors in PET and CT; and selecting features and training model parameters based on multi-objective. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used as the predictive model, while a nondominated sorting-based multi-objective evolutionary computation algorithm II (NSGA-II) is used for solving the multi-objective optimization. Results: The accuracy for PET, clinical, CT, PET+clinical, PET+CT, CT+clinical, PET+CT+clinical are 71.15%, 84.62%, 84.62%, 85.54%, 82.69%, 84.62%, 86.54%, respectively. The sensitivities for the above seven combinations are 41.76%, 58.33%, 50.00%, 50.00%, 41.67%, 41.67%, 58.33%, while the specificities are 80.00%, 92.50%, 90.00%, 97.50%, 92.50%, 97.50%, 97.50%. Conclusion: A new multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in NSCLC treated with SBRT was developed. The experimental results show that the best performance can be obtained by combining all features.« less

Developing a CD-CBM Anticipatory Approach for Cavitation - Defining a Model Descriptor Consistent Between Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allgood, G.O.; Dress, W.B.; Kercel, S.W.

1999-05-10

A major problem with cavitation in pumps and other hydraulic devices is that there is no effective method for detecting or predicting its inception. The traditional approach is to declare the pump in cavitation when the total head pressure drops by some arbitrary value (typically 3o/0) in response to a reduction in pump inlet pressure. However, the pump is already cavitating at this point. A method is needed in which cavitation events are captured as they occur and characterized by their process dynamics. The object of this research was to identify specific features of cavitation that could be used asmore » a model-based descriptor in a context-dependent condition-based maintenance (CD-CBM) anticipatory prognostic and health assessment model. This descriptor was based on the physics of the phenomena, capturing the salient features of the process dynamics. An important element of this concept is the development and formulation of the extended process feature vector @) or model vector. Thk model-based descriptor encodes the specific information that describes the phenomena and its dynamics and is formulated as a data structure consisting of several elements. The first is a descriptive model abstracting the phenomena. The second is the parameter list associated with the functional model. The third is a figure of merit, a single number between [0,1] representing a confidence factor that the functional model and parameter list actually describes the observed data. Using this as a basis and applying it to the cavitation problem, any given location in a flow loop will have this data structure, differing in value but not content. The extended process feature vector is formulated as follows: E`> [ , {parameter Iist}, confidence factor]. (1) For this study, the model that characterized cavitation was a chirped-exponentially decaying sinusoid. Using the parameters defined by this model, the parameter list included frequency, decay, and chirp rate. Based on this, the process feature vector has the form: @=> [, {01 = a, ~= b, ~ = c}, cf = 0.80]. (2) In this experiment a reversible catastrophe was examined. The reason for this is that the same catastrophe could be repeated to ensure the statistical significance of the data.« less

Predicting Age-Appropriate Pharmacokinetics of Six Volatile Organic Compounds in the Rat Utilizing Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

The capability of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models to incorporate age-appropriate physiological and chemical-specific parameters was utilized to predict changes in internal dosimetry for six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) across different ages of rats.

A simplified gross primary production and evapotranspiration model for boreal coniferous forests - is a generic calibration sufficient?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, F.; Peltoniemi, M.; Launiainen, S.; Aurela, M.; Lindroth, A.; Lohila, A.; Mammarella, I.; Minkkinen, K.; Mäkelä, A.

2015-07-01

The problem of model complexity has been lively debated in environmental sciences as well as in the forest modelling community. Simple models are less input demanding and their calibration involves a lower number of parameters, but they might be suitable only at local scale. In this work we calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model (PRELES) to data from multiple sites and we tested if PRELES can be used at regional scale to estimate the carbon and water fluxes of Boreal conifer forests. We compared a multi-site (M-S) with site-specific (S-S) calibrations. Model calibrations and evaluations were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. To evaluate model performances BMC results were combined with more classical analysis of model-data mismatch (M-DM). Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 10 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study. Calibration results showed that similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. No significant differences were encountered in the predictions of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES with exception of a site with agricultural history (Alkkia). Although PRELES predicted GPP better than evapotranspiration, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Our analyses underlined also the importance of using long and carefully collected flux datasets in model calibration. In fact, even a single site can provide model calibrations that can be applied at a wider spatial scale, since it covers a wide range of variability in climatic conditions.

Hybrid pairwise likelihood analysis of animal behavior experiments.

PubMed

Cattelan, Manuela; Varin, Cristiano

2013-12-01

The study of the determinants of fights between animals is an important issue in understanding animal behavior. For this purpose, tournament experiments among a set of animals are often used by zoologists. The results of these tournament experiments are naturally analyzed by paired comparison models. Proper statistical analysis of these models is complicated by the presence of dependence between the outcomes of fights because the same animal is involved in different contests. This paper discusses two different model specifications to account for between-fights dependence. Models are fitted through the hybrid pairwise likelihood method that iterates between optimal estimating equations for the regression parameters and pairwise likelihood inference for the association parameters. This approach requires the specification of means and covariances only. For this reason, the method can be applied also when the computation of the joint distribution is difficult or inconvenient. The proposed methodology is investigated by simulation studies and applied to real data about adult male Cape Dwarf Chameleons. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

A validated model to predict microalgae growth in outdoor pond cultures subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huesemann, Michael H.; Crowe, Braden J.; Waller, Peter

Here, a microalgae biomass growth model was developed for screening novel strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities under nutrient-replete conditions in outdoor ponds subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures. Growth is modeled by first estimating the light attenuation by biomass according to a scatter-corrected Beer-Lambert Law, and then calculating the specific growth rate in discretized culture volume slices that receive declining light intensities due to attenuation. The model requires the following experimentally determined strain-specific input parameters: specific growth rate as a function of light intensity and temperature, biomass loss rate in the dark as amore » function of temperature and average light intensity during the preceding light period, and the scatter-corrected biomass light absorption coefficient. The model was successful in predicting the growth performance and biomass productivity of three different microalgae species (Chlorella sorokiniana, Nannochloropsis salina, and Picochlorum sp.) in raceway pond cultures (batch and semi-continuous) subjected to diurnal sunlight intensity and water temperature variations. Model predictions were moderately sensitive to minor deviations in input parameters. To increase the predictive power of this and other microalgae biomass growth models, a better understanding of the effects of mixing-induced rapid light dark cycles on photo-inhibition and short-term biomass losses due to dark respiration in the aphotic zone of the pond is needed.« less

Predicting Trihalomethanes (THMs) in the New York City Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukundan, R.; Van Dreason, R.

2013-12-01

Chlorine, a commonly used disinfectant in most water supply systems, can combine with organic carbon to form disinfectant byproducts including carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs). We used water quality data from 24 monitoring sites within the New York City (NYC) water supply distribution system, measured between January 2009 and April 2012, to develop site-specific empirical models for predicting total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels. Terms in the model included various combinations of the following water quality parameters: total organic carbon, pH, specific conductivity, and water temperature. Reasonable estimates of TTHM levels were achieved with overall R2 of about 0.87 and predicted values within 5 μg/L of measured values. The relative importance of factors affecting TTHM formation was estimated by ranking the model regression coefficients. Site-specific models showed improved model performance statistics compared to a single model for the entire system most likely because the single model did not consider locational differences in the water treatment process. Although never out of compliance in 2011, the TTHM levels in the water supply increased following tropical storms Irene and Lee with 45% of the samples exceeding the 80 μg/L Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) in October and November. This increase was explained by changes in water quality parameters, particularly by the increase in total organic carbon concentration and pH during this period.

A validated model to predict microalgae growth in outdoor pond cultures subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures

DOE PAGES

Huesemann, Michael H.; Crowe, Braden J.; Waller, Peter; ...

2015-12-11

Here, a microalgae biomass growth model was developed for screening novel strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities under nutrient-replete conditions in outdoor ponds subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures. Growth is modeled by first estimating the light attenuation by biomass according to a scatter-corrected Beer-Lambert Law, and then calculating the specific growth rate in discretized culture volume slices that receive declining light intensities due to attenuation. The model requires the following experimentally determined strain-specific input parameters: specific growth rate as a function of light intensity and temperature, biomass loss rate in the dark as amore » function of temperature and average light intensity during the preceding light period, and the scatter-corrected biomass light absorption coefficient. The model was successful in predicting the growth performance and biomass productivity of three different microalgae species (Chlorella sorokiniana, Nannochloropsis salina, and Picochlorum sp.) in raceway pond cultures (batch and semi-continuous) subjected to diurnal sunlight intensity and water temperature variations. Model predictions were moderately sensitive to minor deviations in input parameters. To increase the predictive power of this and other microalgae biomass growth models, a better understanding of the effects of mixing-induced rapid light dark cycles on photo-inhibition and short-term biomass losses due to dark respiration in the aphotic zone of the pond is needed.« less

Customized Steady-State Constraints for Parameter Estimation in Non-Linear Ordinary Differential Equation Models

PubMed Central

Rosenblatt, Marcus; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

2016-01-01

Ordinary differential equation models have become a wide-spread approach to analyze dynamical systems and understand underlying mechanisms. Model parameters are often unknown and have to be estimated from experimental data, e.g., by maximum-likelihood estimation. In particular, models of biological systems contain a large number of parameters. To reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space, steady-state information is incorporated in the parameter estimation process. For non-linear models, analytical steady-state calculation typically leads to higher-order polynomial equations for which no closed-form solutions can be obtained. This can be circumvented by solving the steady-state equations for kinetic parameters, which results in a linear equation system with comparatively simple solutions. At the same time multiplicity of steady-state solutions is avoided, which otherwise is problematic for optimization. When solved for kinetic parameters, however, steady-state constraints tend to become negative for particular model specifications, thus, generating new types of optimization problems. Here, we present an algorithm based on graph theory that derives non-negative, analytical steady-state expressions by stepwise removal of cyclic dependencies between dynamical variables. The algorithm avoids multiple steady-state solutions by construction. We show that our method is applicable to most common classes of biochemical reaction networks containing inhibition terms, mass-action and Hill-type kinetic equations. Comparing the performance of parameter estimation for different analytical and numerical methods of incorporating steady-state information, we show that our approach is especially well-tailored to guarantee a high success rate of optimization. PMID:27243005

Customized Steady-State Constraints for Parameter Estimation in Non-Linear Ordinary Differential Equation Models.

PubMed

Rosenblatt, Marcus; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

2016-01-01

Ordinary differential equation models have become a wide-spread approach to analyze dynamical systems and understand underlying mechanisms. Model parameters are often unknown and have to be estimated from experimental data, e.g., by maximum-likelihood estimation. In particular, models of biological systems contain a large number of parameters. To reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space, steady-state information is incorporated in the parameter estimation process. For non-linear models, analytical steady-state calculation typically leads to higher-order polynomial equations for which no closed-form solutions can be obtained. This can be circumvented by solving the steady-state equations for kinetic parameters, which results in a linear equation system with comparatively simple solutions. At the same time multiplicity of steady-state solutions is avoided, which otherwise is problematic for optimization. When solved for kinetic parameters, however, steady-state constraints tend to become negative for particular model specifications, thus, generating new types of optimization problems. Here, we present an algorithm based on graph theory that derives non-negative, analytical steady-state expressions by stepwise removal of cyclic dependencies between dynamical variables. The algorithm avoids multiple steady-state solutions by construction. We show that our method is applicable to most common classes of biochemical reaction networks containing inhibition terms, mass-action and Hill-type kinetic equations. Comparing the performance of parameter estimation for different analytical and numerical methods of incorporating steady-state information, we show that our approach is especially well-tailored to guarantee a high success rate of optimization.

Model of head-neck joint fast movements in the frontal plane.

PubMed

Pedrocchi, A; Ferrigno, G

2004-06-01

The objective of this work is to develop a model representing the physiological systems driving fast head movements in frontal plane. All the contributions occurring mechanically in the head movement are considered: damping, stiffness, physiological limit of range of motion, gravitational field, and muscular torques due to voluntary activation as well as to stretch reflex depending on fusal afferences. Model parameters are partly derived from the literature, when possible, whereas undetermined block parameters are determined by optimising the model output, fitting to real kinematics data acquired by a motion capture system in specific experimental set-ups. The optimisation for parameter identification is performed by genetic algorithms. Results show that the model represents very well fast head movements in the whole range of inclination in the frontal plane. Such a model could be proposed as a tool for transforming kinematics data on head movements in 'neural equivalent data', especially for assessing head control disease and properly planning the rehabilitation process. In addition, the use of genetic algorithms seems to fit well the problem of parameter identification, allowing for the use of a very simple experimental set-up and granting model robustness.

FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2000-01-01

Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

Performance model for grid-connected photovoltaic inverters.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyson, William Earl; Galbraith, Gary M.; King, David L.

2007-09-01

This document provides an empirically based performance model for grid-connected photovoltaic inverters used for system performance (energy) modeling and for continuous monitoring of inverter performance during system operation. The versatility and accuracy of the model were validated for a variety of both residential and commercial size inverters. Default parameters for the model can be obtained from manufacturers specification sheets, and the accuracy of the model can be further refined using measurements from either well-instrumented field measurements in operational systems or using detailed measurements from a recognized testing laboratory. An initial database of inverter performance parameters was developed based on measurementsmore » conducted at Sandia National Laboratories and at laboratories supporting the solar programs of the California Energy Commission.« less

Uncertainty analyses of the calibrated parameter values of a water quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rode, M.; Suhr, U.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.

2003-04-01

For river basin management water quality models are increasingly used for the analysis and evaluation of different management measures. However substantial uncertainties exist in parameter values depending on the available calibration data. In this paper an uncertainty analysis for a water quality model is presented, which considers the impact of available model calibration data and the variance of input variables. The investigation was conducted based on four extensive flowtime related longitudinal surveys in the River Elbe in the years 1996 to 1999 with varying discharges and seasonal conditions. For the model calculations the deterministic model QSIM of the BfG (Germany) was used. QSIM is a one dimensional water quality model and uses standard algorithms for hydrodynamics and phytoplankton dynamics in running waters, e.g. Michaelis Menten/Monod kinetics, which are used in a wide range of models. The multi-objective calibration of the model was carried out with the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST. The results show that for individual flow time related measuring surveys very good agreements between model calculation and measured values can be obtained. If these parameters are applied to deviating boundary conditions, substantial errors in model calculation can occur. These uncertainties can be decreased with an increased calibration database. More reliable model parameters can be identified, which supply reasonable results for broader boundary conditions. The extension of the application of the parameter set on a wider range of water quality conditions leads to a slight reduction of the model precision for the specific water quality situation. Moreover the investigations show that highly variable water quality variables like the algal biomass always allow a smaller forecast accuracy than variables with lower coefficients of variation like e.g. nitrate.

Calibrating the sqHIMMELI v1.0 wetland methane emission model with hierarchical modeling and adaptive MCMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susiluoto, Jouni; Raivonen, Maarit; Backman, Leif; Laine, Marko; Makela, Jarmo; Peltola, Olli; Vesala, Timo; Aalto, Tuula

2018-03-01

Estimating methane (CH4) emissions from natural wetlands is complex, and the estimates contain large uncertainties. The models used for the task are typically heavily parameterized and the parameter values are not well known. In this study, we perform a Bayesian model calibration for a new wetland CH4 emission model to improve the quality of the predictions and to understand the limitations of such models.The detailed process model that we analyze contains descriptions for CH4 production from anaerobic respiration, CH4 oxidation, and gas transportation by diffusion, ebullition, and the aerenchyma cells of vascular plants. The processes are controlled by several tunable parameters. We use a hierarchical statistical model to describe the parameters and obtain the posterior distributions of the parameters and uncertainties in the processes with adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance resampling, and time series analysis techniques. For the estimation, the analysis utilizes measurement data from the Siikaneva flux measurement site in southern Finland. The uncertainties related to the parameters and the modeled processes are described quantitatively. At the process level, the flux measurement data are able to constrain the CH4 production processes, methane oxidation, and the different gas transport processes. The posterior covariance structures explain how the parameters and the processes are related. Additionally, the flux and flux component uncertainties are analyzed both at the annual and daily levels. The parameter posterior densities obtained provide information regarding importance of the different processes, which is also useful for development of wetland methane emission models other than the square root HelsinkI Model of MEthane buiLd-up and emIssion for peatlands (sqHIMMELI). The hierarchical modeling allows us to assess the effects of some of the parameters on an annual basis. The results of the calibration and the cross validation suggest that the early spring net primary production could be used to predict parameters affecting the annual methane production. Even though the calibration is specific to the Siikaneva site, the hierarchical modeling approach is well suited for larger-scale studies and the results of the estimation pave way for a regional or global-scale Bayesian calibration of wetland emission models.

On the applicability of low-dimensional models for convective flow reversals at extreme Prandtl numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannattil, Manu; Pandey, Ambrish; Verma, Mahendra K.; Chakraborty, Sagar

2017-12-01

Constructing simpler models, either stochastic or deterministic, for exploring the phenomenon of flow reversals in fluid systems is in vogue across disciplines. Using direct numerical simulations and nonlinear time series analysis, we illustrate that the basic nature of flow reversals in convecting fluids can depend on the dimensionless parameters describing the system. Specifically, we find evidence of low-dimensional behavior in flow reversals occurring at zero Prandtl number, whereas we fail to find such signatures for reversals at infinite Prandtl number. Thus, even in a single system, as one varies the system parameters, one can encounter reversals that are fundamentally different in nature. Consequently, we conclude that a single general low-dimensional deterministic model cannot faithfully characterize flow reversals for every set of parameter values.

Specific heats and thermodynamic critical fields in Zn-doped YBa2Cu3O(7-x) according to an induced-pairing model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eagles, D. M.

1993-01-01

Electronic specific heats and thermodynamic critical fields are calculated in a mean-field version of an induced-pairing model for superconductivity, and compared with results of Loram et al. (1990) on YBa2(Cu(1-y)Zn(y))3O(7-x). This model involves induction of pairing of holes in a wideband by strongly bound electronlike pairs. It is assumed that the planar hole concentration for no Zn addition is close to, but slightly higher than, that for the maximum Tc, and that it increases by 0.015 per planar Cu ion for each increase of y by 0.01. Parameters of the model are taken to be the same as in a previous publication in which energy gaps were discussed, except that an effective hybridization parameter is adjusted for each Zn concentration to give agreement with the observed Tc. Results are presented for y = 0.0, 0.01, and 0.03. The agreement with experiment is good for thermodynamic critical fields, and is fair for specific heats. For specimens with larger y, with relatively low T(c)s, it is argued that the model should be supplemented to include effects of a BCS-type interaction amongst the wideband carriers.

Analysis of pumping tests of partially penetrating wells in an unconfined aquifer using inverse numerical optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hvilshøj, S.; Jensen, K. H.; Barlebo, H. C.; Madsen, B.

1999-08-01

Inverse numerical modeling was applied to analyze pumping tests of partially penetrating wells carried out in three wells established in an unconfined aquifer in Vejen, Denmark, where extensive field investigations had previously been carried out, including tracer tests, mini-slug tests, and other hydraulic tests. Drawdown data from multiple piezometers located at various horizontal and vertical distances from the pumping well were included in the optimization. Horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, specific storage, and specific yield were estimated, assuming that the aquifer was either a homogeneous system with vertical anisotropy or composed of two or three layers of different hydraulic properties. In two out of three cases, a more accurate interpretation was obtained for a multi-layer model defined on the basis of lithostratigraphic information obtained from geological descriptions of sediment samples, gammalogs, and flow-meter tests. Analysis of the pumping tests resulted in values for horizontal hydraulic conductivities that are in good accordance with those obtained from slug tests and mini-slug tests. Besides the horizontal hydraulic conductivity, it is possible to determine the vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, and specific storage based on a pumping test of a partially penetrating well. The study demonstrates that pumping tests of partially penetrating wells can be analyzed using inverse numerical models. The model used in the study was a finite-element flow model combined with a non-linear regression model. Such a model can accommodate more geological information and complex boundary conditions, and the parameter-estimation procedure can be formalized to obtain optimum estimates of hydraulic parameters and their standard deviations.

Parallelization and visual analysis of multidimensional fields: Application to ozone production, destruction, and transport in three dimensions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwan, Karsten

1994-01-01

Atmospheric modeling is a grand challenge problem for several reasons, including its inordinate computational requirements and its generation of large amounts of data concurrent with its use of very large data sets derived from measurement instruments like satellites. In addition, atmospheric models are typically run several times, on new data sets or to reprocess existing data sets, to investigate or reinvestigate specific chemical or physical processes occurring in the earth's atmosphere, to understand model fidelity with respect to observational data, or simply to experiment with specific model parameters or components.

Modeling clear-sky solar radiation across a range of elevations in Hawai‘i: Comparing the use of input parameters at different temporal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, Ryan J.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Frazier, Abby G.

2012-01-01

Estimates of clear sky global solar irradiance using the parametric model SPCTRAL2 were tested against clear sky radiation observations at four sites in Hawai`i using daily, mean monthly, and 1 year mean model parameter settings. Atmospheric parameters in SPCTRAL2 and similar models are usually set at site-specific values and are not varied to represent the effects of fluctuating humidity, aerosol amount and type, or ozone concentration, because time-dependent atmospheric parameter estimates are not available at most sites of interest. In this study, we sought to determine the added value of using time dependent as opposed to fixed model input parameter settings. At the AERONET site, Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) on the island of Hawai`i, where daily measurements of atmospheric optical properties and hourly solar radiation observations are available, use of daily rather than 1 year mean aerosol parameter values reduced mean bias error (MBE) from 18 to 10 W m-2 and root mean square error from 25 to 17 W m-2. At three stations in the HaleNet climate network, located at elevations of 960, 1640, and 2590 m on the island of Maui, where aerosol-related parameter settings were interpolated from observed values for AERONET sites at MLO (3397 m) and Lāna`i (20 m), and precipitable water was estimated using radiosonde-derived humidity profiles from nearby Hilo, the model performed best when using constant 1 year mean parameter values. At HaleNet Station 152, for example, MBE was 18, 10, and 8 W m-2 for daily, monthly, and 1 year mean parameters, respectively.

Determination of remodeling parameters for a strain-adaptive finite element model of the distal ulna.

PubMed

Neuert, Mark A C; Dunning, Cynthia E

2013-09-01

Strain energy-based adaptive material models are used to predict bone resorption resulting from stress shielding induced by prosthetic joint implants. Generally, such models are governed by two key parameters: a homeostatic strain-energy state (K) and a threshold deviation from this state required to initiate bone reformation (s). A refinement procedure has been performed to estimate these parameters in the femur and glenoid; this study investigates the specific influences of these parameters on resulting density distributions in the distal ulna. A finite element model of a human ulna was created using micro-computed tomography (µCT) data, initialized to a homogeneous density distribution, and subjected to approximate in vivo loading. Values for K and s were tested, and the resulting steady-state density distribution compared with values derived from µCT images. The sensitivity of these parameters to initial conditions was examined by altering the initial homogeneous density value. The refined model parameters selected were then applied to six additional human ulnae to determine their performance across individuals. Model accuracy using the refined parameters was found to be comparable with that found in previous studies of the glenoid and femur, and gross bone structures, such as the cortical shell and medullary canal, were reproduced. The model was found to be insensitive to initial conditions; however, a fair degree of variation was observed between the six specimens. This work represents an important contribution to the study of changes in load transfer in the distal ulna following the implementation of commercial orthopedic implants.

Rashba spin-orbit coupling and orbital chirality in magnetic bilayers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Woo

2013-03-01

The phenomenon of the Rashba spin-orbit coupling is examined theoretically for an ultrathin magnetic layer in contact with a non-magnetic heavy metal layer. From first-principles calculation, large Rashba parameter of order 1 eV .Å is obtained, which is strong enough to generate large spin transfer torque of spin-orbit coupling origin. Large Rashba parameter is attributed to the orbital mixing of 3 d magnetic atoms and non-magnetic heavy elements with significant atomic spin-orbit coupling. Interestingly the magnitude and sign of the parameter vary from energy bands to bands, which we attribute to band-specific chiral ordering of orbital angular momentum. Through a simple tight-binding model analysis, we demonstrate that d-orbital hybridization allowed by the breaking of structural inversion symmetry generates band-specific chiral ordering of orbital angular momentum, which combines with atomic spin-orbit coupling to give rise to band-specific Rashba parameter. The band-dependence of the Rashba parameter is discussed in connection with recent experiments and we argue that the dependence may be utilized to enhance device application potentials. This work is supported by NRF grant (2010-0008529, 2011-0015631, 2010-0014109, 2011-0030789).

The use and misuse of V(c,max) in Earth System Models.

PubMed

Rogers, Alistair

2014-02-01

Earth System Models (ESMs) aim to project global change. Central to this aim is the need to accurately model global carbon fluxes. Photosynthetic carbon dioxide assimilation by the terrestrial biosphere is the largest of these fluxes, and in many ESMs is represented by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis. The maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco, commonly termed V c,max, is a key parameter in the FvCB model. This study investigated the derivation of the values of V c,max used to represent different plant functional types (PFTs) in ESMs. Four methods for estimating V c,max were identified; (1) an empirical or (2) mechanistic relationship was used to relate V c,max to leaf N content, (3) V c,max was estimated using an approach based on the optimization of photosynthesis and respiration or (4) calibration of a user-defined V c,max to obtain a target model output. Despite representing the same PFTs, the land model components of ESMs were parameterized with a wide range of values for V c,max (-46 to +77% of the PFT mean). In many cases, parameterization was based on limited data sets and poorly defined coefficients that were used to adjust model parameters and set PFT-specific values for V c,max. Examination of the models that linked leaf N mechanistically to V c,max identified potential changes to fixed parameters that collectively would decrease V c,max by 31% in C3 plants and 11% in C4 plants. Plant trait data bases are now available that offer an excellent opportunity for models to update PFT-specific parameters used to estimate V c,max. However, data for parameterizing some PFTs, particularly those in the Tropics and the Arctic are either highly variable or largely absent.

Box-Cox Mixed Logit Model for Travel Behavior Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orro, Alfonso; Novales, Margarita; Benitez, Francisco G.

2010-09-01

To represent the behavior of travelers when they are deciding how they are going to get to their destination, discrete choice models, based on the random utility theory, have become one of the most widely used tools. The field in which these models were developed was halfway between econometrics and transport engineering, although the latter now constitutes one of their principal areas of application. In the transport field, they have mainly been applied to mode choice, but also to the selection of destination, route, and other important decisions such as the vehicle ownership. In usual practice, the most frequently employed discrete choice models implement a fixed coefficient utility function that is linear in the parameters. The principal aim of this paper is to present the viability of specifying utility functions with random coefficients that are nonlinear in the parameters, in applications of discrete choice models to transport. Nonlinear specifications in the parameters were present in discrete choice theory at its outset, although they have seldom been used in practice until recently. The specification of random coefficients, however, began with the probit and the hedonic models in the 1970s, and, after a period of apparent little practical interest, has burgeoned into a field of intense activity in recent years with the new generation of mixed logit models. In this communication, we present a Box-Cox mixed logit model, original of the authors. It includes the estimation of the Box-Cox exponents in addition to the parameters of the random coefficients distribution. Probability of choose an alternative is an integral that will be calculated by simulation. The estimation of the model is carried out by maximizing the simulated log-likelihood of a sample of observed individual choices between alternatives. The differences between the predictions yielded by models that are inconsistent with real behavior have been studied with simulation experiments.

Modeling the biomechanical and injury response of human liver parenchyma under tensile loading.

PubMed

Untaroiu, Costin D; Lu, Yuan-Chiao; Siripurapu, Sundeep K; Kemper, Andrew R

2015-01-01

The rapid advancement in computational power has made human finite element (FE) models one of the most efficient tools for assessing the risk of abdominal injuries in a crash event. In this study, specimen-specific FE models were employed to quantify material and failure properties of human liver parenchyma using a FE optimization approach. Uniaxial tensile tests were performed on 34 parenchyma coupon specimens prepared from two fresh human livers. Each specimen was tested to failure at one of four loading rates (0.01s(-1), 0.1s(-1), 1s(-1), and 10s(-1)) to investigate the effects of rate dependency on the biomechanical and failure response of liver parenchyma. Each test was simulated by prescribing the end displacements of specimen-specific FE models based on the corresponding test data. The parameters of a first-order Ogden material model were identified for each specimen by a FE optimization approach while simulating the pre-tear loading region. The mean material model parameters were then determined for each loading rate from the characteristic averages of the stress-strain curves, and a stochastic optimization approach was utilized to determine the standard deviations of the material model parameters. A hyperelastic material model using a tabulated formulation for rate effects showed good predictions in terms of tensile material properties of human liver parenchyma. Furthermore, the tissue tearing was numerically simulated using a cohesive zone modeling (CZM) approach. A layer of cohesive elements was added at the failure location, and the CZM parameters were identified by fitting the post-tear force-time history recorded in each test. The results show that the proposed approach is able to capture both the biomechanical and failure response, and accurately model the overall force-deflection response of liver parenchyma over a large range of tensile loadings rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust functional regression model for marginal mean and subject-specific inferences.

PubMed

Cao, Chunzheng; Shi, Jian Qing; Lee, Youngjo

2017-01-01

We introduce flexible robust functional regression models, using various heavy-tailed processes, including a Student t-process. We propose efficient algorithms in estimating parameters for the marginal mean inferences and in predicting conditional means as well as interpolation and extrapolation for the subject-specific inferences. We develop bootstrap prediction intervals (PIs) for conditional mean curves. Numerical studies show that the proposed model provides a robust approach against data contamination or distribution misspecification, and the proposed PIs maintain the nominal confidence levels. A real data application is presented as an illustrative example.

Effects of turbulence on hydraulic heads and parameter sensitivities in preferential groundwater flow layers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W. Barclay; Cunningham, Kevin J.; Kuniansky, Eve L.; Dixon, Joann F.

2008-01-01

A conduit flow process (CFP) for the Modular Finite Difference Ground‐Water Flow model, MODFLOW‐2005, has been created by the U.S. Geological Survey. An application of the CFP on a carbonate aquifer in southern Florida is described; this application examines (1) the potential for turbulent groundwater flow and (2) the effects of turbulent flow on hydraulic heads and parameter sensitivities. Turbulent flow components were spatially extensive in preferential groundwater flow layers, with horizontal hydraulic conductivities of about 5,000,000 m d−1, mean void diameters equal to about 3.5 cm, groundwater temperature equal to about 25°C, and critical Reynolds numbers less than or equal to 400. Turbulence either increased or decreased simulated heads from their laminar elevations. Specifically, head differences from laminar elevations ranged from about −18 to +27 cm and were explained by the magnitude of net flow to the finite difference model cell. Turbulence also affected the sensitivities of model parameters. Specifically, the composite‐scaled sensitivities of horizontal hydraulic conductivities decreased by as much as 70% when turbulence was essentially removed. These hydraulic head and sensitivity differences due to turbulent groundwater flow highlight potential errors in models based on the equivalent porous media assumption, which assumes laminar flow in uniformly distributed void spaces.

An extended Kalman filter approach to non-stationary Bayesian estimation of reduced-order vocal fold model parameters.

PubMed

Hadwin, Paul J; Peterson, Sean D

2017-04-01

The Bayesian framework for parameter inference provides a basis from which subject-specific reduced-order vocal fold models can be generated. Previously, it has been shown that a particle filter technique is capable of producing estimates and associated credibility intervals of time-varying reduced-order vocal fold model parameters. However, the particle filter approach is difficult to implement and has a high computational cost, which can be barriers to clinical adoption. This work presents an alternative estimation strategy based upon Kalman filtering aimed at reducing the computational cost of subject-specific model development. The robustness of this approach to Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise is discussed. The extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach is found to perform very well in comparison with the particle filter technique at dramatically lower computational cost. Based upon the test cases explored, the EKF is comparable in terms of accuracy to the particle filter technique when greater than 6000 particles are employed; if less particles are employed, the EKF actually performs better. For comparable levels of accuracy, the solution time is reduced by 2 orders of magnitude when employing the EKF. By virtue of the approximations used in the EKF, however, the credibility intervals tend to be slightly underpredicted.

COSP for Windows: Strategies for Rapid Analyses of Cyclic Oxidation Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smialek, James L.; Auping, Judith V.

2002-01-01

COSP is a publicly available computer program that models the cyclic oxidation weight gain and spallation process. Inputs to the model include the selection of an oxidation growth law and a spalling geometry, plus oxide phase, growth rate, spall constant, and cycle duration parameters. Output includes weight change, the amounts of retained and spalled oxide, the total oxygen and metal consumed, and the terminal rates of weight loss and metal consumption. The present version is Windows based and can accordingly be operated conveniently while other applications remain open for importing experimental weight change data, storing model output data, or plotting model curves. Point-and-click operating features include multiple drop-down menus for input parameters, data importing, and quick, on-screen plots showing one selection of the six output parameters for up to 10 models. A run summary text lists various characteristic parameters that are helpful in describing cyclic behavior, such as the maximum weight change, the number of cycles to reach the maximum weight gain or zero weight change, the ratio of these, and the final rate of weight loss. The program includes save and print options as well as a help file. Families of model curves readily show the sensitivity to various input parameters. The cyclic behaviors of nickel aluminide (NiAl) and a complex superalloy are shown to be properly fitted by model curves. However, caution is always advised regarding the uniqueness claimed for any specific set of input parameters,

Combining the ‘bottom up’ and ‘top down’ approaches in pharmacokinetic modelling: fitting PBPK models to observed clinical data

PubMed Central

Tsamandouras, Nikolaos; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Aarons, Leon

2015-01-01

Pharmacokinetic models range from being entirely exploratory and empirical, to semi-mechanistic and ultimately complex physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. This choice is conditional on the modelling purpose as well as the amount and quality of the available data. The main advantage of PBPK models is that they can be used to extrapolate outside the studied population and experimental conditions. The trade-off for this advantage is a complex system of differential equations with a considerable number of model parameters. When these parameters cannot be informed from in vitro or in silico experiments they are usually optimized with respect to observed clinical data. Parameter estimation in complex models is a challenging task associated with many methodological issues which are discussed here with specific recommendations. Concepts such as structural and practical identifiability are described with regards to PBPK modelling and the value of experimental design and sensitivity analyses is sketched out. Parameter estimation approaches are discussed, while we also highlight the importance of not neglecting the covariance structure between model parameters and the uncertainty and population variability that is associated with them. Finally the possibility of using model order reduction techniques and minimal semi-mechanistic models that retain the physiological-mechanistic nature only in the parts of the model which are relevant to the desired modelling purpose is emphasized. Careful attention to all the above issues allows us to integrate successfully information from in vitro or in silico experiments together with information deriving from observed clinical data and develop mechanistically sound models with clinical relevance. PMID:24033787

lumpR 2.0.0: an R package facilitating landscape discretisation for hillslope-based hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilz, Tobias; Francke, Till; Bronstert, Axel

2017-08-01

The characteristics of a landscape pose essential factors for hydrological processes. Therefore, an adequate representation of the landscape of a catchment in hydrological models is vital. However, many of such models exist differing, amongst others, in spatial concept and discretisation. The latter constitutes an essential pre-processing step, for which many different algorithms along with numerous software implementations exist. In that context, existing solutions are often model specific, commercial, or depend on commercial back-end software, and allow only a limited or no workflow automation at all. Consequently, a new package for the scientific software and scripting environment R, called lumpR, was developed. lumpR employs an algorithm for hillslope-based landscape discretisation directed to large-scale application via a hierarchical multi-scale approach. The package addresses existing limitations as it is free and open source, easily extendible to other hydrological models, and the workflow can be fully automated. Moreover, it is user-friendly as the direct coupling to a GIS allows for immediate visual inspection and manual adjustment. Sufficient control is furthermore retained via parameter specification and the option to include expert knowledge. Conversely, completely automatic operation also allows for extensive analysis of aspects related to landscape discretisation. In a case study, the application of the package is presented. A sensitivity analysis of the most important discretisation parameters demonstrates its efficient workflow automation. Considering multiple streamflow metrics, the employed model proved reasonably robust to the discretisation parameters. However, parameters determining the sizes of subbasins and hillslopes proved to be more important than the others, including the number of representative hillslopes, the number of attributes employed for the lumping algorithm, and the number of sub-discretisations of the representative hillslopes.

Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

PubMed

Gemmell, Philip; Burrage, Kevin; Rodriguez, Blanca; Quinn, T Alexander

2014-01-01

Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally observed intercellular variability of rabbit ventricular action potential repolarisation.

Population of Computational Rabbit-Specific Ventricular Action Potential Models for Investigating Sources of Variability in Cellular Repolarisation

PubMed Central

Gemmell, Philip; Burrage, Kevin; Rodriguez, Blanca; Quinn, T. Alexander

2014-01-01

Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K+, inward rectifying K+, L-type Ca2+, and Na+/K+ pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally observed intercellular variability of rabbit ventricular action potential repolarisation. PMID:24587229

Looking beyond general metrics for model evaluation - lessons from an international model intercomparison study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Brauer, Claudia; Drogue, Gilles; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Grelier, Benjamin; de Niel, Jan; Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Savenije, Hubert; Thirel, Guillaume; Willems, Patrick

2016-04-01

International collaboration between institutes and universities is a promising way to reach consensus on hydrological model development. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration methods and analysis techniques. Although comparison studies are very valuable for international cooperation, they do often not lead to very clear new insights regarding the relevance of the modelled processes. We hypothesise that this is partly caused by model complexity and the used comparison methods, which focus on a good overall performance instead of focusing on specific events. We propose an approach that focuses on the evaluation of specific events. Eight international research groups calibrated their model for the Ourthe catchment in Belgium (1607 km2) and carried out a validation in time for the Ourthe (i.e. on two different periods, one of them on a blind mode for the modellers) and a validation in space for nested and neighbouring catchments of the Meuse in a completely blind mode. For each model, the same protocol was followed and an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected. Signatures were first used to assess model performances in the different catchments during validation. Comparison of the models was then followed by evaluation of selected events, which include: low flows, high flows and the transition from low to high flows. While the models show rather similar performances based on general metrics (i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), clear differences can be observed for specific events. While most models are able to simulate high flows well, large differences are observed during low flows and in the ability to capture the first peaks after drier months. The transferability of model parameters to neighbouring and nested catchments is assessed as an additional measure in the model evaluation. This suggested approach helps to select, among competing model alternatives, the most suitable model for a specific purpose.

Parameter Estimation in Atmospheric Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenig, Mark; Colarco, Peter

2004-01-01

In this study the structure tensor technique is used to estimate dynamical parameters in atmospheric data sets. The structure tensor is a common tool for estimating motion in image sequences. This technique can be extended to estimate other dynamical parameters such as diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. As a test scenario this technique will be applied to modeled dust data. In this case vertically integrated dust concentrations were used to derive wind information. Those results can be compared to the wind vector fields which served as input to the model. Based on this analysis, a method to compute atmospheric data parameter fields will be presented. .

Optimisation of lateral car dynamics taking into account parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, Jochen; Bestle, Dieter

2014-02-01

Simulation studies on an active all-wheel-steering car show that disturbance of vehicle parameters have high influence on lateral car dynamics. This motivates the need of robust design against such parameter uncertainties. A specific parametrisation is established combining deterministic, velocity-dependent steering control parameters with partly uncertain, velocity-independent vehicle parameters for simultaneous use in a numerical optimisation process. Model-based objectives are formulated and summarised in a multi-objective optimisation problem where especially the lateral steady-state behaviour is improved by an adaption strategy based on measurable uncertainties. The normally distributed uncertainties are generated by optimal Latin hypercube sampling and a response surface based strategy helps to cut down time consuming model evaluations which offers the possibility to use a genetic optimisation algorithm. Optimisation results are discussed in different criterion spaces and the achieved improvements confirm the validity of the proposed procedure.

A stochastic model for tumor geometry evolution during radiation therapy in cervical cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yifang; Lee, Chi-Guhn; Chan, Timothy C. Y., E-mail: tcychan@mie.utoronto.ca

2014-02-15

Purpose: To develop mathematical models to predict the evolution of tumor geometry in cervical cancer undergoing radiation therapy. Methods: The authors develop two mathematical models to estimate tumor geometry change: a Markov model and an isomorphic shrinkage model. The Markov model describes tumor evolution by investigating the change in state (either tumor or nontumor) of voxels on the tumor surface. It assumes that the evolution follows a Markov process. Transition probabilities are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation and depend on the states of neighboring voxels. The isomorphic shrinkage model describes tumor shrinkage or growth in terms of layers of voxelsmore » on the tumor surface, instead of modeling individual voxels. The two proposed models were applied to data from 29 cervical cancer patients treated at Princess Margaret Cancer Centre and then compared to a constant volume approach. Model performance was measured using sensitivity and specificity. Results: The Markov model outperformed both the isomorphic shrinkage and constant volume models in terms of the trade-off between sensitivity (target coverage) and specificity (normal tissue sparing). Generally, the Markov model achieved a few percentage points in improvement in either sensitivity or specificity compared to the other models. The isomorphic shrinkage model was comparable to the Markov approach under certain parameter settings. Convex tumor shapes were easier to predict. Conclusions: By modeling tumor geometry change at the voxel level using a probabilistic model, improvements in target coverage and normal tissue sparing are possible. Our Markov model is flexible and has tunable parameters to adjust model performance to meet a range of criteria. Such a model may support the development of an adaptive paradigm for radiation therapy of cervical cancer.« less

Probabilistic calibration of the SPITFIRE fire spread model using Earth observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Dans, Jose; Wooster, Martin; Lewis, Philip; Spessa, Allan

2010-05-01

There is a great interest in understanding how fire affects vegetation distribution and dynamics in the context of global vegetation modelling. A way to include these effects is through the development of embedded fire spread models. However, fire is a complex phenomenon, thus difficult to model. Statistical models based on fire return intervals, or fire danger indices need large amounts of data for calibration, and are often prisoner to the epoch they were calibrated to. Mechanistic models, such as SPITFIRE, try to model the complete fire phenomenon based on simple physical rules, making these models mostly independent of calibration data. However, the processes expressed in models such as SPITFIRE require many parameters. These parametrisations are often reliant on site-specific experiments, or in some other cases, paremeters might not be measured directly. Additionally, in many cases, changes in temporal and/or spatial resolution result in parameters becoming effective. To address the difficulties with parametrisation and the often-used fitting methodologies, we propose using a probabilistic framework to calibrate some areas of the SPITFIRE fire spread model. We calibrate the model against Earth Observation (EO) data, a global and ever-expanding source of relevant data. We develop a methodology that tries to incorporate the limitations of the EO data, reasonable prior values for parameters and that results in distributions of parameters, which can be used to infer uncertainty due to parameter estimates. Additionally, the covariance structure of parameters and observations is also derived, whcih can help inform data gathering efforts and model development, respectively. For this work, we focus on Southern African savannas, an important ecosystem for fire studies, and one with a good amount of EO data relevnt to fire studies. As calibration datasets, we use burned area data, estimated number of fires and vegetation moisture dynamics.

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model; user guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter-estimation processes and three post-processing programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; Banta, E.R.; Harbaugh, A.W.; Anderman, E.R.

2000-01-01

This report documents the Observation, Sensitivity, and Parameter-Estimation Processes of the ground-water modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The Observation Process generates model-calculated values for comparison with measured, or observed, quantities. A variety of statistics is calculated to quantify this comparison, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, a number of files are produced that can be used to compare the values graphically. The Sensitivity Process calculates the sensitivity of hydraulic heads throughout the model with respect to specified parameters using the accurate sensitivity-equation method. These are called grid sensitivities. If the Observation Process is active, it uses the grid sensitivities to calculate sensitivities for the simulated values associated with the observations. These are called observation sensitivities. Observation sensitivities are used to calculate a number of statistics that can be used (1) to diagnose inadequate data, (2) to identify parameters that probably cannot be estimated by regression using the available observations, and (3) to evaluate the utility of proposed new data. The Parameter-Estimation Process uses a modified Gauss-Newton method to adjust values of user-selected input parameters in an iterative procedure to minimize the value of the weighted least-squares objective function. Statistics produced by the Parameter-Estimation Process can be used to evaluate estimated parameter values; statistics produced by the Observation Process and post-processing program RESAN-2000 can be used to evaluate how accurately the model represents the actual processes; statistics produced by post-processing program YCINT-2000 can be used to quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values. Parameters are defined in the Ground-Water Flow Process input files and can be used to calculate most model inputs, such as: for explicitly defined model layers, horizontal hydraulic conductivity, horizontal anisotropy, vertical hydraulic conductivity or vertical anisotropy, specific storage, and specific yield; and, for implicitly represented layers, vertical hydraulic conductivity. In addition, parameters can be defined to calculate the hydraulic conductance of the River, General-Head Boundary, and Drain Packages; areal recharge rates of the Recharge Package; maximum evapotranspiration of the Evapotranspiration Package; pumpage or the rate of flow at defined-flux boundaries of the Well Package; and the hydraulic head at constant-head boundaries. The spatial variation of model inputs produced using defined parameters is very flexible, including interpolated distributions that require the summation of contributions from different parameters. Observations can include measured hydraulic heads or temporal changes in hydraulic heads, measured gains and losses along head-dependent boundaries (such as streams), flows through constant-head boundaries, and advective transport through the system, which generally would be inferred from measured concentrations. MODFLOW-2000 is intended for use on any computer operating system. The program consists of algorithms programmed in Fortran 90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations and is fully compatible with the newer Fortran 95. The code is easily modified to be compatible with FORTRAN 77. Coordination for multiple processors is accommodated using Message Passing Interface (MPI) commands. The program is designed in a modular fashion that is intended to support inclusion of new capabilities.

Diagnostics of Robust Growth Curve Modeling Using Student's "t" Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tong, Xin; Zhang, Zhiyong

2012-01-01

Growth curve models with different types of distributions of random effects and of intraindividual measurement errors for robust analysis are compared. After demonstrating the influence of distribution specification on parameter estimation, 3 methods for diagnosing the distributions for both random effects and intraindividual measurement errors…

Predicting Age-appropriate Pharmacokinetics of Six Volatile Organic Compounds in the Rat Utilizing Physiologically-based Pharmacokinetic Modeling (T)

EPA Science Inventory

The capability of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to incorporate ageappropriate physiological and chemical-specific parameters was utilized in this study to predict changes in internal dosimetry for six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) across different ages o...

An age-specific biokinetic model for iodine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, Richard Wayne

This study reviews age-specific biokinetic data for iodine in humans and extends to pre-adult ages the baseline parameter values of the author’s previously published model for systemic iodine in adult humans. Compared with the ICRP’s current age-specific model for iodine introduced in Publication 56 (1989), the present model provides a more detailed description of the behavior of iodine in the human body; predicts greater cumulative (integrated) activity in the thyroid for short-lived isotopes of iodine; predicts similar cumulative activity in the thyroid for isotopes with half-time greater than a few hours; and, for most iodine isotopes, predicts much greater cumulativemore » activity in salivary glands, stomach wall, liver, and kidneys.« less

An age-specific biokinetic model for iodine

DOE PAGES

Leggett, Richard Wayne

2017-10-26

This study reviews age-specific biokinetic data for iodine in humans and extends to pre-adult ages the baseline parameter values of the author’s previously published model for systemic iodine in adult humans. Compared with the ICRP’s current age-specific model for iodine introduced in Publication 56 (1989), the present model provides a more detailed description of the behavior of iodine in the human body; predicts greater cumulative (integrated) activity in the thyroid for short-lived isotopes of iodine; predicts similar cumulative activity in the thyroid for isotopes with half-time greater than a few hours; and, for most iodine isotopes, predicts much greater cumulativemore » activity in salivary glands, stomach wall, liver, and kidneys.« less

Development of a patient-specific model for calculation of pulmonary function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Hualiang; Ding, Mingyue; Movsas, Benjamin; Chetty, Indrin J.

2011-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a patient-specific finite element model (FEM) to calculate the pulmonary function of lung cancer patients for evaluation of radiation treatment. The lung model was created with an in-house developed FEM software with region-specific parameters derived from a four-dimensional CT (4DCT) image. The model was used first to calculate changes in air volume and elastic stress in the lung, and then to calculate regional compliance defined as the change in air volume corrected by its associated stress. The results have shown that the resultant compliance images can reveal the regional elastic property of lung tissue, and could be useful for radiation treatment planning and assessment.

Efficient Ensemble State-Parameters Estimation Techniques in Ocean Ecosystem Models: Application to the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Gharamti, M.; Bethke, I.; Tjiputra, J.; Bertino, L.

2016-02-01

Given the recent strong international focus on developing new data assimilation systems for biological models, we present in this comparative study the application of newly developed state-parameters estimation tools to an ocean ecosystem model. It is quite known that the available physical models are still too simple compared to the complexity of the ocean biology. Furthermore, various biological parameters remain poorly unknown and hence wrong specifications of such parameters can lead to large model errors. Standard joint state-parameters augmentation technique using the ensemble Kalman filter (Stochastic EnKF) has been extensively tested in many geophysical applications. Some of these assimilation studies reported that jointly updating the state and the parameters might introduce significant inconsistency especially for strongly nonlinear models. This is usually the case for ecosystem models particularly during the period of the spring bloom. A better handling of the estimation problem is often carried out by separating the update of the state and the parameters using the so-called Dual EnKF. The dual filter is computationally more expensive than the Joint EnKF but is expected to perform more accurately. Using a similar separation strategy, we propose a new EnKF estimation algorithm in which we apply a one-step-ahead smoothing to the state. The new state-parameters estimation scheme is derived in a consistent Bayesian filtering framework and results in separate update steps for the state and the parameters. Unlike the classical filtering path, the new scheme starts with an update step and later a model propagation step is performed. We test the performance of the new smoothing-based schemes against the standard EnKF in a one-dimensional configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) in the North Atlantic. We use nutrients profile (up to 2000 m deep) data and surface partial CO2 measurements from Mike weather station (66o N, 2o E) to estimate different biological parameters of phytoplanktons and zooplanktons. We analyze the performance of the filters in terms of complexity and accuracy of the state and parameters estimates.

Machine Learning Techniques for Global Sensitivity Analysis in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safta, C.; Sargsyan, K.; Ricciuto, D. M.

2017-12-01

Climate models studies are not only challenged by the compute intensive nature of these models but also by the high-dimensionality of the input parameter space. In our previous work with the land model components (Sargsyan et al., 2014) we identified subsets of 10 to 20 parameters relevant for each QoI via Bayesian compressive sensing and variance-based decomposition. Nevertheless the algorithms were challenged by the nonlinear input-output dependencies for some of the relevant QoIs. In this work we will explore a combination of techniques to extract relevant parameters for each QoI and subsequently construct surrogate models with quantified uncertainty necessary to future developments, e.g. model calibration and prediction studies. In the first step, we will compare the skill of machine-learning models (e.g. neural networks, support vector machine) to identify the optimal number of classes in selected QoIs and construct robust multi-class classifiers that will partition the parameter space in regions with smooth input-output dependencies. These classifiers will be coupled with techniques aimed at building sparse and/or low-rank surrogate models tailored to each class. Specifically we will explore and compare sparse learning techniques with low-rank tensor decompositions. These models will be used to identify parameters that are important for each QoI. Surrogate accuracy requirements are higher for subsequent model calibration studies and we will ascertain the performance of this workflow for multi-site ALM simulation ensembles.

Effects of age-related increases in sapwood area, leaf area, and xylem conductivity on height-related hydraulic costs in two contrasting coniferous species

Treesearch

Jean-Christophe Domec; Barbara Lachenbruch; Michele L. Pruyn; Rachel Spicer

2012-01-01

Introduction: Knowledge of vertical variation in hydraulic parameters would improve our understanding of individual trunk functioning and likely have important implications for modeling water movement to the leaves. Specifically, understanding how foliage area (Al), sapwood area (As), and hydraulic specific...

Delineation and Analysis of Uncertainty of Contributing Areas to Wells at the Southbury Training School, Southbury, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Stone, Janet Radway; Mullaney, John R.

2000-01-01

Contributing areas to public-supply wells at the Southbury Training School in Southbury, Connecticut, were mapped by simulating ground-water flow in stratified glacial deposits in the lower Transylvania Brook watershed. The simulation used nonlinear regression methods and informational statistics to estimate parameters of a ground-water flow model using drawdown data from an aquifer test. The goodness of fit of the model and the uncertainty associated with model predictions were statistically measured. A watershed-scale model, depicting large-scale ground-water flow in the Transylvania Brook watershed, was used to estimate the distribution of groundwater recharge. Estimates of recharge from 10 small basins in the watershed differed on the basis of the drainage characteristics of each basin. Small basins having well-defined stream channels contributed less ground-water recharge than basins having no defined channels because potential ground-water recharge was carried away in the stream channel. Estimates of ground-water recharge were used in an aquifer-scale parameter-estimation model. Seven variations of the ground-water-flow system were posed, each representing the ground-water-flow system in slightly different but realistic ways. The model that most closely reproduced measured hydraulic heads and flows with realistic parameter values was selected as the most representative of the ground-water-flow system and was used to delineate boundaries of the contributing areas. The model fit revealed no systematic model error, which indicates that the model is likely to represent the major characteristics of the actual system. Parameter values estimated during the simulation are as follows: horizontal hydraulic conductivity of coarse-grained deposits, 154 feet per day; vertical hydraulic conductivity of coarse-grained deposits, 0.83 feet per day; horizontal hydraulic conductivity of fine-grained deposits, 29 feet per day; specific yield, 0.007; specific storage, 1.6E-05. Average annual recharge was estimated using the watershed-scale model with no parameter estimation and was determined to be 24 inches per year in the valley areas and 9 inches per year in the upland areas. The parameter estimates produced in the model are similar to expected values, with two exceptions. The estimated specific yield of the stratified glacial deposits is lower than expected, which could be caused by the layered nature of the deposits. The recharge estimate produced by the model was also lower?about 32 percent of the average annual rate. This could be caused by the timing of the aquifer test with respect to the annual cycle of ground-water recharge, and by some of the expected recharge going to parts of the flow system that were not simulated. The data used in the calibration were collected during an aquifer test from October 30 to November 4, 1996. The model fit was very good, as indicated by the correlation coefficient (0.999) between the weighted simulated values and weighted observed values. The model also reproduced the general rise in ground-water levels caused by ground-water recharge and the cyclic fluctuations caused by pumping prior to the aquifer test. Contributing areas were delineated using a particle-tracking procedure. Hypothetical particles of water were introduced at each model cell in the top layer and were tracked to determine whether or not they reached the pumped well. A deterministic contributing area was calculated using the calibrated model, and a probabilistic contributing area was calculated using a Monte Carlo approach along with the calibrated model. The Monte Carlo simulation was done, using the parameter variance/covariance matrix generated by the regression model, to estimate probabilities associated with the contributing area to the wells. The probabilities arise from uncertainty in the estimated parameter values, which in turn arise from the adequacy of the data available to comprehensively describe the groundwater-flow sy

Probing dark energy in the scope of a Bianchi type I spacetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirhashchi, Hassan

2018-03-01

It is well known that the flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker metric is a special case of Bianchi type I spacetime. In this paper, we use 38 Hubble parameter, H (z ), measurements at intermediate redshifts 0.07 ≤z ≤2.36 and its joint combination with the latest "joint light curves" (JLA) sample, comprising 740 type Ia supernovae in the redshift range of z ɛ [0.01 ,1.30 ] to constrain the parameters of the Bianchi type I dark energy model. We also use the same datasets to constrain flat a Λ CDM model. In both cases, we specifically address the expansion rate H0 as well as the transition redshift zt determinations out of these measurements. In both models, we found that using joint combination of datasets gives rise to lower values for model parameters. Also to compare the considered cosmologies, we have made Akaike information criterion and Bayes factor (Ψ ) tests.

Experimental analysis of green roof substrate detention characteristics.

PubMed

Yio, Marcus H N; Stovin, Virginia; Werdin, Jörg; Vesuviano, Gianni

2013-01-01

Green roofs may make an important contribution to urban stormwater management. Rainfall-runoff models are required to evaluate green roof responses to specific rainfall inputs. The roof's hydrological response is a function of its configuration, with the substrate - or growing media - providing both retention and detention of rainfall. The objective of the research described here is to quantify the detention effects due to green roof substrates, and to propose a suitable hydrological modelling approach. Laboratory results from experimental detention tests on green roof substrates are presented. It is shown that detention increases with substrate depth and as a result of increasing substrate organic content. Model structures based on reservoir routing are evaluated, and it is found that a one-parameter reservoir routing model coupled with a parameter that describes the delay to start of runoff best fits the observed data. Preliminary findings support the hypothesis that the reservoir routing parameter values can be defined from the substrate's physical characteristics.

Derivation of Hunt equation for suspension distribution using Shannon entropy theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Snehasis

2017-12-01

In this study, the Hunt equation for computing suspension concentration in sediment-laden flows is derived using Shannon entropy theory. Considering the inverse of the void ratio as a random variable and using principle of maximum entropy, probability density function and cumulative distribution function of suspension concentration is derived. A new and more general cumulative distribution function for the flow domain is proposed which includes several specific other models of CDF reported in literature. This general form of cumulative distribution function also helps to derive the Rouse equation. The entropy based approach helps to estimate model parameters using suspension data of sediment concentration which shows the advantage of using entropy theory. Finally model parameters in the entropy based model are also expressed as functions of the Rouse number to establish a link between the parameters of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches.

Mapping the parameter space of a T2-dependent model of water diffusion MR in brain tissue.

PubMed

Hansen, Brian; Vestergaard-Poulsen, Peter

2006-10-01

We present a new model for describing the diffusion-weighted (DW) proton nuclear magnetic resonance signal obtained from normal grey matter. Our model is analytical and, in some respects, is an extension of earlier model schemes. We model tissue as composed of three separate compartments with individual properties of diffusion and transverse relaxation. Our study assumes slow exchange between compartments. We attempt to take cell morphology into account, along with its effect on water diffusion in tissues. Using this model, we simulate diffusion-sensitive MR signals and compare model output to experimental data from human grey matter. In doing this comparison, we perform a global search for good fits in the parameter space of the model. The characteristic nonmonoexponential behavior of the signal as a function of experimental b value is reproduced quite well, along with established values for tissue-specific parameters such as volume fraction, tortuosity and apparent diffusion coefficient. We believe that the presented approach to modeling diffusion in grey matter adds new aspects to the treatment of a longstanding problem.

Trans-dimensional matched-field geoacoustic inversion with hierarchical error models and interacting Markov chains.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E

2012-10-01

This paper develops a trans-dimensional approach to matched-field geoacoustic inversion, including interacting Markov chains to improve efficiency and an autoregressive model to account for correlated errors. The trans-dimensional approach and hierarchical seabed model allows inversion without assuming any particular parametrization by relaxing model specification to a range of plausible seabed models (e.g., in this case, the number of sediment layers is an unknown parameter). Data errors are addressed by sampling statistical error-distribution parameters, including correlated errors (covariance), by applying a hierarchical autoregressive error model. The well-known difficulty of low acceptance rates for trans-dimensional jumps is addressed with interacting Markov chains, resulting in a substantial increase in efficiency. The trans-dimensional seabed model and the hierarchical error model relax the degree of prior assumptions required in the inversion, resulting in substantially improved (more realistic) uncertainty estimates and a more automated algorithm. In particular, the approach gives seabed parameter uncertainty estimates that account for uncertainty due to prior model choice (layering and data error statistics). The approach is applied to data measured on a vertical array in the Mediterranean Sea.

Throughput and latency programmable optical transceiver by using DSP and FEC control.

PubMed

Tanimura, Takahito; Hoshida, Takeshi; Kato, Tomoyuki; Watanabe, Shigeki; Suzuki, Makoto; Morikawa, Hiroyuki

2017-05-15

We propose and experimentally demonstrate a proof-of-concept of a programmable optical transceiver that enables simultaneous optimization of multiple programmable parameters (modulation format, symbol rate, power allocation, and FEC) for satisfying throughput, signal quality, and latency requirements. The proposed optical transceiver also accommodates multiple sub-channels that can transport different optical signals with different requirements. Multi-degree-of-freedom of the parameters often leads to difficulty in finding the optimum combination among the parameters due to an explosion of the number of combinations. The proposed optical transceiver reduces the number of combinations and finds feasible sets of programmable parameters by using constraints of the parameters combined with a precise analytical model. For precise BER prediction with the specified set of parameters, we model the sub-channel BER as a function of OSNR, modulation formats, symbol rates, and power difference between sub-channels. Next, we formulate simple constraints of the parameters and combine the constraints with the analytical model to seek feasible sets of programmable parameters. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the end-to-end operation of the proposed optical transceiver with offline manner including low-density parity-check (LDPC) FEC encoding and decoding under a specific use case with latency-sensitive application and 40-km transmission.

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE VADOSE ZONE IN MULTIMEDIA RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING APPLIED AT A NATIONAL SCALE: AN ANALYSIS OF BENZENE USING 3MRA

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidab...

A Note on the Specification of Error Structures in Latent Interaction Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mao, Xiulin; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Hancock, Gregory R.

2015-01-01

Latent interaction models have motivated a great deal of methodological research, mainly in the area of estimating such models. Product-indicator methods have been shown to be competitive with other methods of estimation in terms of parameter bias and standard error accuracy, and their continued popularity in empirical studies is due, in part, to…

Table look-up estimation of signal and noise parameters from quantized observables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, V. A.; Rodemich, E. R.

1986-01-01

A table look-up algorithm for estimating underlying signal and noise parameters from quantized observables is examined. A general mathematical model is developed, and a look-up table designed specifically for estimating parameters from four-bit quantized data is described. Estimator performance is evaluated both analytically and by means of numerical simulation, and an example is provided to illustrate the use of the look-up table for estimating signal-to-noise ratios commonly encountered in Voyager-type data.

Homogenization Theory for the Prediction of Obstructed Solute Diffusivity in Macromolecular Solutions

PubMed Central

Donovan, Preston; Chehreghanianzabi, Yasaman; Rathinam, Muruhan; Zustiak, Silviya Petrova

2016-01-01

The study of diffusion in macromolecular solutions is important in many biomedical applications such as separations, drug delivery, and cell encapsulation, and key for many biological processes such as protein assembly and interstitial transport. Not surprisingly, multiple models for the a-priori prediction of diffusion in macromolecular environments have been proposed. However, most models include parameters that are not readily measurable, are specific to the polymer-solute-solvent system, or are fitted and do not have a physical meaning. Here, for the first time, we develop a homogenization theory framework for the prediction of effective solute diffusivity in macromolecular environments based on physical parameters that are easily measurable and not specific to the macromolecule-solute-solvent system. Homogenization theory is useful for situations where knowledge of fine-scale parameters is used to predict bulk system behavior. As a first approximation, we focus on a model where the solute is subjected to obstructed diffusion via stationary spherical obstacles. We find that the homogenization theory results agree well with computationally more expensive Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, the homogenization theory agrees with effective diffusivities of a solute in dilute and semi-dilute polymer solutions measured using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy. Lastly, we provide a mathematical formula for the effective diffusivity in terms of a non-dimensional and easily measurable geometric system parameter. PMID:26731550

Detection of questionable occlusal carious lesions using an electrical bioimpedance method with fractional electrical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morais, A. P.; Pino, A. V.; Souza, M. N.

2016-08-01

This in vitro study evaluated the diagnostic performance of an alternative electric bioimpedance spectroscopy technique (BIS-STEP) detect questionable occlusal carious lesions. Six specialists carried out the visual (V), radiography (R), and combined (VR) exams of 57 sound or non-cavitated occlusal carious lesion teeth classifying the occlusal surfaces in sound surface (H), enamel caries (EC), and dentinal caries (DC). Measurements were based on the current response to a step voltage excitation (BIS-STEP). A fractional electrical model was used to predict the current response in the time domain and to estimate the model parameters: Rs and Rp (resistive parameters), and C and α (fractional parameters). Histological analysis showed caries prevalence of 33.3% being 15.8% hidden caries. Combined examination obtained the best traditional diagnostic results with specificity = 59.0%, sensitivity = 70.9%, and accuracy = 60.8%. There were statistically significant differences in bioimpedance parameters between the H and EC groups (p = 0.016) and between the H and DC groups (Rs, p = 0.006; Rp, p = 0.022, and α, p = 0.041). Using a suitable threshold for the Rs, we obtained specificity = 60.7%, sensitivity = 77.9%, accuracy = 73.2%, and 100% of detection for deep lesions. It can be concluded that BIS-STEP method could be an important tool to improve the detection and management of occlusal non-cavitated primary caries and pigmented sites.

Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): An overview of science strategy and major results from the second and third workshops

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duan, Q.; Schaake, J.; Andreassian, V.; Franks, S.; Goteti, G.; Gupta, H.V.; Gusev, Y.M.; Habets, F.; Hall, A.; Hay, L.; Hogue, T.; Huang, M.; Leavesley, G.; Liang, X.; Nasonova, O.N.; Noilhan, J.; Oudin, L.; Sorooshian, S.; Wagener, T.; Wood, E.F.

2006-01-01

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic models and in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves three major steps: data preparation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, and demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include more basins in all parts of the world. A number of international MOPEX workshops have been convened to bring together interested hydrologists and land surface modelers from all over world to exchange knowledge and experience in developing a priori parameter estimation techniques. This paper describes the results from the second and third MOPEX workshops. The specific objective of these workshops is to examine the state of a priori parameter estimation techniques and how they can be potentially improved with observations from well-monitored hydrologic basins. Participants of the second and third MOPEX workshops were provided with data from 12 basins in the southeastern US and were asked to carry out a series of numerical experiments using a priori parameters as well as calibrated parameters developed for their respective hydrologic models. Different modeling groups carried out all the required experiments independently using eight different models, and the results from these models have been assembled for analysis in this paper. This paper presents an overview of the MOPEX experiment and its design. The main experimental results are analyzed. A key finding is that existing a priori parameter estimation procedures are problematic and need improvement. Significant improvement of these procedures may be achieved through model calibration of well-monitored hydrologic basins. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned, and points out further work and future strategy. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Chemotherapy for Leukemia: A Model-Based Strategy for Individualized Treatment

PubMed Central

Jayachandran, Devaraj; Rundell, Ann E.; Hannemann, Robert E.; Vik, Terry A.; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

2014-01-01

Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, commonly known as ALL, is a predominant form of cancer during childhood. With the advent of modern healthcare support, the 5-year survival rate has been impressive in the recent past. However, long-term ALL survivors embattle several treatment-related medical and socio-economic complications due to excessive and inordinate chemotherapy doses received during treatment. In this work, we present a model-based approach to personalize 6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP) treatment for childhood ALL with a provision for incorporating the pharmacogenomic variations among patients. Semi-mechanistic mathematical models were developed and validated for i) 6-MP metabolism, ii) red blood cell mean corpuscular volume (MCV) dynamics, a surrogate marker for treatment efficacy, and iii) leukopenia, a major side-effect. With the constraint of getting limited data from clinics, a global sensitivity analysis based model reduction technique was employed to reduce the parameter space arising from semi-mechanistic models. The reduced, sensitive parameters were used to individualize the average patient model to a specific patient so as to minimize the model uncertainty. Models fit the data well and mimic diverse behavior observed among patients with minimum parameters. The model was validated with real patient data obtained from literature and Riley Hospital for Children in Indianapolis. Patient models were used to optimize the dose for an individual patient through nonlinear model predictive control. The implementation of our approach in clinical practice is realizable with routinely measured complete blood counts (CBC) and a few additional metabolite measurements. The proposed approach promises to achieve model-based individualized treatment to a specific patient, as opposed to a standard-dose-for-all, and to prescribe an optimal dose for a desired outcome with minimum side-effects. PMID:25310465

Applying Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to simulate growth and bio-energetics of blue mussels under low seston conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosland, R.; Strand, Ø.; Alunno-Bruscia, M.; Bacher, C.; Strohmeier, T.

2009-08-01

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for simulation of growth and bioenergetics of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis) has been tested in three low seston sites in southern Norway. The observations comprise four datasets from laboratory experiments (physiological and biometrical mussel data) and three datasets from in situ growth experiments (biometrical mussel data). Additional in situ data from commercial farms in southern Norway were used for estimation of biometrical relationships in the mussels. Three DEB parameters (shape coefficient, half saturation coefficient, and somatic maintenance rate coefficient) were estimated from experimental data, and the estimated parameters were complemented with parameter values from literature to establish a basic parameter set. Model simulations based on the basic parameter set and site specific environmental forcing matched fairly well with observations, but the model was not successful in simulating growth at the extreme low seston regimes in the laboratory experiments in which the long period of negative growth caused negative reproductive mass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was moderately sensitive to changes in the parameter and initial conditions. The results show the robust properties of the DEB model as it manages to simulate mussel growth in several independent datasets from a common basic parameter set. However, the results also demonstrate limitations of Chl a as a food proxy for blue mussels and limitations of the DEB model to simulate long term starvation. Future work should aim at establishing better food proxies and improving the model formulations of the processes involved in food ingestion and assimilation. The current DEB model should also be elaborated to allow shrinking in the structural tissue in order to produce more realistic growth simulations during long periods of starvation.

Microthrix parvicella abundance associates with activated sludge settling velocity and rheology - Quantifying and modelling filamentous bulking.

PubMed

Wágner, Dorottya S; Ramin, Elham; Szabo, Peter; Dechesne, Arnaud; Plósz, Benedek Gy

2015-07-01

The objective of this work is to identify relevant settling velocity and rheology model parameters and to assess the underlying filamentous microbial community characteristics that can influence the solids mixing and transport in secondary settling tanks. Parameter values for hindered, transient and compression settling velocity functions were estimated by carrying out biweekly batch settling tests using a novel column setup through a four-month long measurement campaign. To estimate viscosity model parameters, rheological experiments were carried out on the same sludge sample using a rotational viscometer. Quantitative fluorescence in-situ hybridisation (qFISH) analysis, targeting Microthrix parvicella and phylum Chloroflexi, was used. This study finds that M. parvicella - predominantly residing inside the microbial flocs in our samples - can significantly influence secondary settling through altering the hindered settling velocity and yield stress parameter. Strikingly, this is not the case for Chloroflexi, occurring in more than double the abundance of M. parvicella, and forming filaments primarily protruding from the flocs. The transient and compression settling parameters show a comparably high variability, and no significant association with filamentous abundance. A two-dimensional, axi-symmetrical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was used to assess calibration scenarios to model filamentous bulking. Our results suggest that model predictions can significantly benefit from explicitly accounting for filamentous bulking by calibrating the hindered settling velocity function. Furthermore, accounting for the transient and compression settling velocity in the computational domain is crucial to improve model accuracy when modelling filamentous bulking. However, the case-specific calibration of transient and compression settling parameters as well as yield stress is not necessary, and an average parameter set - obtained under bulking and good settling conditions - can be used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intervertebral disc response to cyclic loading--an animal model.

PubMed

Ekström, L; Kaigle, A; Hult, E; Holm, S; Rostedt, M; Hansson, T

1996-01-01

The viscoelastic response of a lumbar motion segment loaded in cyclic compression was studied in an in vivo porcine model (N = 7). Using surgical techniques, a miniaturized servohydraulic exciter was attached to the L2-L3 motion segment via pedicle fixation. A dynamic loading scheme was implemented, which consisted of one hour of sinusoidal vibration at 5 Hz, 50 N peak load, followed by one hour of restitution at zero load and one hour of sinusoidal vibration at 5 Hz, 100 N peak load. The force and displacement responses of the motion segment were sampled at 25 Hz. The experimental data were used for evaluating the parameters of two viscoelastic models: a standard linear solid model (three-parameter) and a linear Burger's fluid model (four-parameter). In this study, the creep behaviour under sinusoidal vibration at 5 Hz closely resembled the creep behaviour under static loading observed in previous studies. Expanding the three-parameter solid model into a four-parameter fluid model made it possible to separate out a progressive linear displacement term. This deformation was not fully recovered during restitution and is therefore an indication of a specific effect caused by the cyclic loading. High variability was observed in the parameters determined from the 50 N experimental data, particularly for the elastic modulus E1. However, at the 100 N load level, significant differences between the models were found. Both models accurately predicted the creep response under the first 800 s of 100 N loading, as displayed by mean absolute errors for the calculated deformation data from the experimental data of 1.26 and 0.97 percent for the solid and fluid models respectively. The linear Burger's fluid model, however, yielded superior predictions particularly for the initial elastic response.

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.

1995-01-01

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Applications of the solvation parameter model in reversed-phase liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Poole, Colin F; Lenca, Nicole

2017-02-24

The solvation parameter model is widely used to provide insight into the retention mechanism in reversed-phase liquid chromatography, for column characterization, and in the development of surrogate chromatographic models for biopartitioning processes. The properties of the separation system are described by five system constants representing all possible intermolecular interactions for neutral molecules. The general model can be extended to include ions and enantiomers by adding new descriptors to encode the specific properties of these compounds. System maps provide a comprehensive overview of the separation system as a function of mobile phase composition and/or temperature for method development. The solvation parameter model has been applied to gradient elution separations but here theory and practice suggest a cautious approach since the interpretation of system and compound properties derived from its use are approximate. A growing application of the solvation parameter model in reversed-phase liquid chromatography is the screening of surrogate chromatographic systems for estimating biopartitioning properties. Throughout the discussion of the above topics success as well as known and likely deficiencies of the solvation parameter model are described with an emphasis on the role of the heterogeneous properties of the interphase region on the interpretation and understanding of the general retention mechanism in reversed-phase liquid chromatography for porous chemically bonded sorbents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IPMP Global Fit - A one-step direct data analysis tool for predictive microbiology.

PubMed

Huang, Lihan

2017-12-04

The objective of this work is to develop and validate a unified optimization algorithm for performing one-step global regression analysis of isothermal growth and survival curves for determination of kinetic parameters in predictive microbiology. The algorithm is incorporated with user-friendly graphical interfaces (GUIs) to develop a data analysis tool, the USDA IPMP-Global Fit. The GUIs are designed to guide the users to easily navigate through the data analysis process and properly select the initial parameters for different combinations of mathematical models. The software is developed for one-step kinetic analysis to directly construct tertiary models by minimizing the global error between the experimental observations and mathematical models. The current version of the software is specifically designed for constructing tertiary models with time and temperature as the independent model parameters in the package. The software is tested with a total of 9 different combinations of primary and secondary models for growth and survival of various microorganisms. The results of data analysis show that this software provides accurate estimates of kinetic parameters. In addition, it can be used to improve the experimental design and data collection for more accurate estimation of kinetic parameters. IPMP-Global Fit can be used in combination with the regular USDA-IPMP for solving the inverse problems and developing tertiary models in predictive microbiology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Pickup Protons: Comparisons using the Three-Dimensional MHD HHMS-PI model and Ulysses SWICS Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Intriligator, Devrie S.; Detman, Thomas; Gloecker, George; Gloeckler, Christine; Dryer, Murray; Sun, Wei; Intriligator, James; Deehr, Charles

2012-01-01

We report the first comparisons of pickup proton simulation results with in situ measurements of pickup protons obtained by the SWICS instrument on Ulysses. Simulations were run using the three dimensional (3D) time-dependent Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup Protons (HHMS-PI). HHMS-PI is an MHD solar wind model, expanded to include the basic physics of pickup protons from neutral hydrogen that drifts into the heliosphere from the local interstellar medium. We use the same model and input data developed by Detman et al. (2011) to now investigate the pickup protons. The simulated interval of 82 days in 2003 2004, includes both quiet solar wind (SW) and also the October November 2003 solar events (the Halloween 2003 solar storms). The HHMS-PI pickup proton simulations generally agree with the SWICS measurements and the HHMS-PI simulated solar wind generally agrees with SWOOPS (also on Ulysses) measurements. Many specific features in the observations are well represented by the model. We simulated twenty specific solar events associated with the Halloween 2003 storm. We give the specific values of the solar input parameters for the HHMS-PI simulations that provide the best combined agreement in the times of arrival of the solar-generated shocks at both ACE and Ulysses. We show graphical comparisons of simulated and observed parameters, and we give quantitative measures of the agreement of simulated with observed parameters. We suggest that some of the variations in the pickup proton density during the Halloween 2003 solar events may be attributed to depletion of the inflowing local interstellar medium (LISM) neutral hydrogen (H) caused by its increased conversion to pickup protons in the immediately preceding shock.

Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number.

PubMed

Vogels, Chantal B F; Hartemink, Nienke; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M

2017-07-10

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Differences between biotypes, such as vector competence and host preference, could be important in determining the risk of WNV outbreaks. Risks for WNV establishment can be modelled with basic reproduction number (R 0 ) models. However, existing R 0 models have not differentiated between biotypes. The aim of this study was, therefore, to explore the role of temperature-dependent and biotype-specific effects on the risk of WNV establishment in Europe. We developed an R 0 model with temperature-dependent and biotype-specific parameters, and calculated R 0 values using the next-generation matrix for several scenarios relevant for Europe. In addition, elasticity analysis was done to investigate the contribution of each biotype to R 0 . Global warming and increased mosquito-to-host ratios can possibly result in more intense WNV circulation in birds and spill-over to humans in northern Europe. Different contributions of the Cx. pipiens biotypes to R 0 shows the importance of including biotype-specific parameters in models for reliable WNV risk assessments.

A phenomenological continuum model for force-driven nano-channel liquid flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbanian, Jafar; Celebi, Alper T.; Beskok, Ali

2016-11-01

A phenomenological continuum model is developed using systematic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of force-driven liquid argon flows confined in gold nano-channels at a fixed thermodynamic state. Well known density layering near the walls leads to the definition of an effective channel height and a density deficit parameter. While the former defines the slip-plane, the latter parameter relates channel averaged density with the desired thermodynamic state value. Definitions of these new parameters require a single MD simulation performed for a specific liquid-solid pair at the desired thermodynamic state and used for calibration of model parameters. Combined with our observations of constant slip-length and kinematic viscosity, the model accurately predicts the velocity distribution and volumetric and mass flow rates for force-driven liquid flows in different height nano-channels. Model is verified for liquid argon flow at distinct thermodynamic states and using various argon-gold interaction strengths. Further verification is performed for water flow in silica and gold nano-channels, exhibiting slip lengths of 1.2 nm and 15.5 nm, respectively. Excellent agreements between the model and the MD simulations are reported for channel heights as small as 3 nm for various liquid-solid pairs.

Perspectives on continuum flow models for force-driven nano-channel liquid flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beskok, Ali; Ghorbanian, Jafar; Celebi, Alper

2017-11-01

A phenomenological continuum model is developed using systematic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of force-driven liquid argon flows confined in gold nano-channels at a fixed thermodynamic state. Well known density layering near the walls leads to the definition of an effective channel height and a density deficit parameter. While the former defines the slip-plane, the latter parameter relates channel averaged density with the desired thermodynamic state value. Definitions of these new parameters require a single MD simulation performed for a specific liquid-solid pair at the desired thermodynamic state and used for calibration of model parameters. Combined with our observations of constant slip-length and kinematic viscosity, the model accurately predicts the velocity distribution and volumetric and mass flow rates for force-driven liquid flows in different height nano-channels. Model is verified for liquid argon flow at distinct thermodynamic states and using various argon-gold interaction strengths. Further verification is performed for water flow in silica and gold nano-channels, exhibiting slip lengths of 1.2 nm and 15.5 nm, respectively. Excellent agreements between the model and the MD simulations are reported for channel heights as small as 3 nm for various liquid-solid pairs.

Suppression of antigen-specific lymphocyte activation in modeled microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, D.; Pride, M. W.; Brown, E. L.; Risin, D.; Pellis, N. R.; McIntire, L. V. (Principal Investigator)

2001-01-01

Various parameters of immune suppression are observed in lymphocytes from astronauts during and after a space flight. It is difficult to ascribe this suppression to microgravity effects on immune cells in crew specimens, due to the complex physiological response to space flight and the resultant effect on in vitro immune performance. Use of isolated immune cells in true and modeled microgravity in immune performance tests, suggests a direct effect of microgravity on in vitro cellular function. Specifically, polyclonal activation of T-cells is severely suppressed in true and modeled microgravity. These recent findings suggest a potential suppression of oligoclonal antigen-specific lymphocyte activation in microgravity. We utilized rotating wall vessel (RWV) bioreactors as an analog of microgravity for cell cultures to analyze three models of antigen-specific activation. A mixed-lymphocyte reaction, as a model for a primary immune response, a tetanus toxoid response and a Borrelia burgdorferi response, as models of a secondary immune response, were all suppressed in the RWV bioreactor. Our findings confirm that the suppression of activation observed with polyclonal models also encompasses oligoclonal antigen-specific activation.

Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model.

PubMed

Schranz, Christoph; Docherty, Paul D; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut; Chase, J Geoffrey

2012-07-18

Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual's model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) patients. The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

A Self-Organizing Maps approach to assess the wave climate of the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Scotton, Carlotta; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Andrea; Bergamasco, Filippo; Bonaldo, Davide; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

2015-04-01

The assessment of wave conditions at sea is fruitful for many research fields in marine and atmospheric sciences and for the human activities in the marine environment. To this end, in the last decades the observational network, that mostly relies on buoys, satellites and other probes from fixed platforms, has been integrated with numerical models outputs, which allow to compute the parameters of sea states (e.g. the significant wave height, the mean and peak wave periods, the mean and peak wave directions) over wider regions. Apart from the collection of wave parameters observed at specific sites or modeled on arbitrary domains, the data processing performed to infer the wave climate at those sites is a crucial step in order to provide high quality data and information to the community. In this context, several statistical techniques has been used to model the randomness of wave parameters. While univariate and bivariate probability distribution functions (pdf) are routinely used, multivariate pdfs that model the probability structure of more than two wave parameters are hardly managed. Recently, the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) technique has been successfully applied to represent the multivariate random wave climate at sites around the Iberian peninsula and the South America continent. Indeed, the visualization properties offered by this technique allow to get the dependencies between the different parameters by visual inspection. In this study, carried out in the frame of the Italian National Flagship Project "RITMARE", we take advantage of the SOM technique to assess the multivariate wave climate over the Adriatic Sea, a semi-enclosed basin in the north-eastern Mediterranean Sea, where winds from North-East (called "Bora") and South-East (called "Sirocco") mainly blow causing sea storms. By means of the SOM techniques we can observe the multivariate character of the typical Bora and Sirocco wave features in the Adriatic Sea. To this end, we used both observed and modeled wave parameters. The "Acqua Alta" oceanographic tower in the northern Adriatic Sea (ISMAR-CNR) and the Italian Data Buoy Network (RON, managed by ISPRA) off the western Adriatic coasts furnished the wave parameters at specific sites of interest. Widespread wave parameters were obtained by means of a numerical SWAN wave model that was implemented on the whole Adriatic Sea with a 6x6 km2 resolution and forced by the high resolution COSMO-I7 atmospheric model for the period 2007-2013.

Sideways fall-induced impact force and its effect on hip fracture risk: a review.

PubMed

Nasiri Sarvi, M; Luo, Y

2017-10-01

Osteoporotic hip fracture, mostly induced in falls among the elderly, is a major health burden over the world. The impact force applied to the hip is an important factor in determining the risk of hip fracture. However, biomechanical researches have yielded conflicting conclusions about whether the fall-induced impact force can be accurately predicted by the available models. It also has been debated whether or not the effect of impact force has been considered appropriately in hip fracture risk assessment tools. This study aimed to provide a state-of-the-art review of the available methods for predicting the impact force, investigate their strengths/limitations, and suggest further improvements in modeling of human body falling. We divided the effective parameters on impact force to two categories: (1) the parameters that can be determined subject-specifically and (2) the parameters that may significantly vary from fall to fall for an individual and cannot be considered subject-specifically. The parameters in the first category can be investigated in human body fall experiments. Video capture of real-life falls was reported as a valuable method to investigate the parameters in the second category that significantly affect the impact force and cannot be determined in human body fall experiments. The analysis of the gathered data revealed that there is a need to develop modified biomechanical models for more accurate prediction of the impact force and appropriately adopt them in hip fracture risk assessment tools in order to achieve a better precision in identifying high-risk patients. Graphical abstract Impact force to the hip induced in sideways falls is affected by many parameters and may remarkably vary from subject to subject.

Regional-specific Stochastic Simulation of Spatially-distributed Ground-motion Time Histories using Wavelet Packet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, D.; Wang, G.

2014-12-01

Stochastic simulation of spatially distributed ground-motion time histories is important for performance-based earthquake design of geographically distributed systems. In this study, we develop a novel technique to stochastically simulate regionalized ground-motion time histories using wavelet packet analysis. First, a transient acceleration time history is characterized by wavelet-packet parameters proposed by Yamamoto and Baker (2013). The wavelet-packet parameters fully characterize ground-motion time histories in terms of energy content, time- frequency-domain characteristics and time-frequency nonstationarity. This study further investigates the spatial cross-correlations of wavelet-packet parameters based on geostatistical analysis of 1500 regionalized ground motion data from eight well-recorded earthquakes in California, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan. The linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is used to develop a permissible spatial cross-correlation model for each parameter group. The geostatistical analysis of ground-motion data from different regions reveals significant dependence of the LMC structure on regional site conditions, which can be characterized by the correlation range of Vs30 in each region. In general, the spatial correlation and cross-correlation of wavelet-packet parameters are stronger if the site condition is more homogeneous. Using the regional-specific spatial cross-correlation model and cokriging technique, wavelet packet parameters at unmeasured locations can be best estimated, and regionalized ground-motion time histories can be synthesized. Case studies and blind tests demonstrated that the simulated ground motions generally agree well with the actual recorded data, if the influence of regional-site conditions is considered. The developed method has great potential to be used in computational-based seismic analysis and loss estimation in a regional scale.

An improved probit method for assessment of domino effect to chemical process equipment caused by overpressure.

PubMed

Mingguang, Zhang; Juncheng, Jiang

2008-10-30

Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Damage probability and relative threshold value are two necessary parameters in QRA of this phenomenon. Some simple models had been proposed based on scarce data or oversimplified assumption. Hence, more data about damage to chemical process equipments were gathered and analyzed, a quantitative relationship between damage probability and damage degrees of equipment was built, and reliable probit models were developed associated to specific category of chemical process equipments. Finally, the improvements of present models were evidenced through comparison with other models in literatures, taking into account such parameters: consistency between models and data, depth of quantitativeness in QRA.

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996--Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vermeul, Vincent R.; Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.

2001-08-29

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures andmore » parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. These results, however, indicate that additional improvements are required to the conceptual model framework. An investigation was initiated at the end of this basalt inverse modeling effort to determine whether facies-based zonation would improve specific yield parameter estimation results (ACM-2). A description of the justification and methodology to develop this zonation is discussed.« less

Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banerjee, Kaushik; Clarity, Justin B; Cumberland, Riley M

This will be licensed via RSICC. A new, integrated data and analysis system has been designed to simplify and automate the performance of accurate and efficient evaluations for characterizing the input to the overall nuclear waste management system -UNF-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS). A relational database within UNF-ST&DARDS provides a standard means by which UNF-ST&DARDS can succinctly store and retrieve modeling and simulation (M&S) parameters for specific spent nuclear fuel analysis. A library of various analysis model templates provides the ability to communicate the various set of M&S parameters to the most appropriate M&S application.more » Interactive visualization capabilities facilitate data analysis and results interpretation. UNF-ST&DARDS current analysis capabilities include (1) assembly-specific depletion and decay, (2) and spent nuclear fuel cask-specific criticality and shielding. Currently, UNF-ST&DARDS uses SCALE nuclear analysis code system for performing nuclear analysis.« less

Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2 sequestration site: Modeling and Analysis: Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bacon, Diana Holford; Locke II, Randall A.; Keating, Elizabeth

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed a suite of tools to assess and manage risk at CO2 sequestration sites (1). The NRAP tool suite includes the Aquifer Impact Model (AIM), based on reduced order models developed using site-specific data from two aquifers (alluvium and carbonate). The models accept aquifer parameters as a range of variable inputs so they may have more broad applicability. Guidelines have been developed for determining the aquifer types for which the ROMs should be applicable. This paper considers the applicability of the aquifer models in AIM to predicting the impact of CO2 or Brinemore » leakage were it to occur at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the hydraulic parameters and leakage source term magnitude are more sensitive than clay fraction or cation exchange capacity. Sand permeability was the only hydraulic parameter measured at the IBDP site. More information on the other hydraulic parameters, such as sand fraction and sand/clay correlation lengths, could reduce uncertainty in risk estimates. Some non-adjustable parameters, such as the initial pH and TDS and the pH no-impact threshold, are significantly different for the ROM than for the observations at the IBDP site. The reduced order model could be made more useful to a wider range of sites if the initial conditions and no-impact threshold values were adjustable parameters.« less

Variable thickness transient ground-water flow model. Volume 1. Formulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reisenauer, A.E.

1979-12-01

Mathematical formulation for the variable thickness transient (VTT) model of an aquifer system is presented. The basic assumptions are described. Specific data requirements for the physical parameters are discussed. The boundary definitions and solution techniques of the numerical formulation of the system of equations are presented.

Unidimensional Interpretations for Multidimensional Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahraman, Nilufer

2013-01-01

This article considers potential problems that can arise in estimating a unidimensional item response theory (IRT) model when some test items are multidimensional (i.e., show a complex factorial structure). More specifically, this study examines (1) the consequences of model misfit on IRT item parameter estimates due to unintended minor item-level…

REGIONAL-SCALE (1000 KM) MODEL OF PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR POLLUTION. PART 2. INPUT PROCESSOR NETWORK DESIGN

EPA Science Inventory

Detailed specifications are given for a network of data processors and submodels that can generate the parameter fields required by the regional oxidant model formulated in Part 1 of this report. Operations performed by the processor network include simulation of the motion and d...

Achieving Competency in Electroconvulsive Therapy: A Model Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolenc, Tamara J.; Philbrick, Kemuel L.

2007-01-01

Objective: This article illustrates a model electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) curriculum with specific parameters of both practice-based learning and medical knowledge. Method: The authors review the recommendations of the APA Task Force on ECT as they relate to training in ECT in psychiatry residency programs, and discuss diverse educational…

A Pipeline for Constructing a Catalog of Multi-method Models of Interacting Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holincheck, Anthony

Galaxies represent a fundamental unit of matter for describing the large-scale structure of the universe. One of the major processes affecting the formation and evolution of galaxies are mutual interactions. These interactions can including gravitational tidal distortion, mass transfer, and even mergers. In any hierarchical model, mergers are the key mechanism in galaxy formation and evolution. Computer simulations of interacting galaxies have evolved in the last four decades from simple restricted three-body algorithms to full n-body gravity models. These codes often included sophisticated physical mechanisms such as gas dynamics, supernova feedback, and central blackholes. As the level of complexity, and perhaps realism, increases so does the amount of computational resources needed. These advanced simulations are often used in parameter studies of interactions. They are usually only employed in an ad hoc fashion to recreate the dynamical history of specific sets of interacting galaxies. These specific models are often created with only a few dozen or at most few hundred sets of simulation parameters being attempted. This dissertation presents a prototype pipeline for modeling specific pairs of interacting galaxies in bulk. The process begins with a simple image of the current disturbed morphology and an estimate of distance to the system and mass of the galaxies. With the use of an updated restricted three-body simulation code and the help of Citizen Scientists, the pipeline is able to sample hundreds of thousands of points in parameter space for each system. Through the use of a convenient interface and innovative scoring algorithm, the pipeline aids researchers in identifying the best set of simulation parameters. This dissertation demonstrates a successful recreation of the disturbed morphologies of 62 pairs of interacting galaxies. The pipeline also provides for examining the level of convergence and uniqueness of the dynamical properties of each system. By creating a population of models for actual systems, the current research is able to compare simulation-based and observational values on a larger scale than previous efforts. Several potential relationships between star formation rate and dynamical time since closest approach are presented.

A Numerical Multiscale Framework for Modeling Patient-Specific Coronary Artery Bypass Surgeries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandra, Abhay B.; Kahn, Andrew; Marsden, Alison

2014-11-01

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is performed to revascularize diseased coronary arteries, using arterial, venous or synthetic grafts. Vein grafts, used in more than 70% of procedures, have failure rates as high as 50% in less than 10 years. Hemodynamics is known to play a key role in the mechano-biological response of vein grafts, but current non-invasive imaging techniques cannot fully characterize the hemodynamic and biomechanical environment. We numerically compute hemodynamics and wall mechanics in patient-specific 3D CABG geometries using stabilized finite element methods. The 3D patient-specific domain is coupled to a 0D lumped parameter circulatory model and parameters are tuned to match patient-specific blood pressures, stroke volumes, heart rates and heuristic flow-split values. We quantify differences in hemodynamics between arterial and venous grafts and discuss possible correlations to graft failure. Extension to a deformable wall approximation will also be discussed. The quantification of wall mechanics and hemodynamics is a necessary step towards coupling continuum models in solid and fluid mechanics with the cellular and sub-cellular responses of grafts, which in turn, should lead to a more accurate prediction of the long term outcome of CABG surgeries, including predictions of growth and remodeling.

Analytical model of the structureborne interior noise induced by a propeller wake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Junger, M. C.; Garrelick, J. M.; Martinez, R.; Cole, J. E., III

1984-01-01

The structure-borne contribution to the interior noise that is induced by the propeller wake acting on the wing was studied. Analytical models were developed to describe each aspect of this path including the excitation loads, the wing and fuselage structures, and the interior acoustic space. The emphasis is on examining a variety of parameters, and as a result different models were developed to examine specific parameters. The excitation loading on the wing by the propeller wake is modeled by a distribution of rotating potential vortices whose strength is related to the thrust per blade. The response of the wing to this loading is examined using beam models. A model of a beam structurally connected to a cylindrical shell with an internal acoustic fluid was developed to examine the coupling of energy from the wing to the interior space. The model of the acoustic space allows for arbitrary end conditions (e.g., rigid or vibrating end caps). Calculations are presented using these models to compare with a laboratory test configuration as well as for parameters of a prop-fan aircraft.

Environment parameters and basic functions for floating-point computation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, W. S.; Feldman, S. I.

1978-01-01

A language-independent proposal for environment parameters and basic functions for floating-point computation is presented. Basic functions are proposed to analyze, synthesize, and scale floating-point numbers. The model provides a small set of parameters and a small set of axioms along with sharp measures of roundoff error. The parameters and functions can be used to write portable and robust codes that deal intimately with the floating-point representation. Subject to underflow and overflow constraints, a number can be scaled by a power of the floating-point radix inexpensively and without loss of precision. A specific representation for FORTRAN is included.

Linking 1D coastal ocean modelling to environmental management: an ensemble approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussap, Giulia; Zavatarelli, Marco; Pinardi, Nadia

2017-12-01

The use of a one-dimensional interdisciplinary numerical model of the coastal ocean as a tool contributing to the formulation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is explored. The focus is on the definition of an experimental design based on ensemble simulations, integrating variability linked to scenarios (characterised by changes in the system forcing) and to the concurrent variation of selected, and poorly constrained, model parameters. The modelling system used was previously specifically designed for the use in "data-rich" areas, so that horizontal dynamics can be resolved by a diagnostic approach and external inputs can be parameterised by nudging schemes properly calibrated. Ensembles determined by changes in the simulated environmental (physical and biogeochemical) dynamics, under joint forcing and parameterisation variations, highlight the uncertainties associated to the application of specific scenarios that are relevant to EBM, providing an assessment of the reliability of the predicted changes. The work has been carried out by implementing the coupled modelling system BFM-POM1D in an area of Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic Sea), considered homogeneous from the point of view of hydrological properties, and forcing it by changing climatic (warming) and anthropogenic (reduction of the land-based nutrient input) pressure. Model parameters affected by considerable uncertainties (due to the lack of relevant observations) were varied jointly with the scenarios of change. The resulting large set of ensemble simulations provided a general estimation of the model uncertainties related to the joint variation of pressures and model parameters. The information of the model result variability aimed at conveying efficiently and comprehensibly the information on the uncertainties/reliability of the model results to non-technical EBM planners and stakeholders, in order to have the model-based information effectively contributing to EBM.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of mobility metrics for hazard model input calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calder, Eliza; Ogburn, Sarah; Spiller, Elaine; Rutarindwa, Regis; Berger, Jim

2015-04-01

In this work we present a method to constrain flow mobility input parameters for pyroclastic flow models using hierarchical Bayes modeling of standard mobility metrics such as H/L and flow volume etc. The advantage of hierarchical modeling is that it can leverage the information in global dataset for a particular mobility metric in order to reduce the uncertainty in modeling of an individual volcano, especially important where individual volcanoes have only sparse datasets. We use compiled pyroclastic flow runout data from Colima, Merapi, Soufriere Hills, Unzen and Semeru volcanoes, presented in an open-source database FlowDat (https://vhub.org/groups/massflowdatabase). While the exact relationship between flow volume and friction varies somewhat between volcanoes, dome collapse flows originating from the same volcano exhibit similar mobility relationships. Instead of fitting separate regression models for each volcano dataset, we use a variation of the hierarchical linear model (Kass and Steffey, 1989). The model presents a hierarchical structure with two levels; all dome collapse flows and dome collapse flows at specific volcanoes. The hierarchical model allows us to assume that the flows at specific volcanoes share a common distribution of regression slopes, then solves for that distribution. We present comparisons of the 95% confidence intervals on the individual regression lines for the data set from each volcano as well as those obtained from the hierarchical model. The results clearly demonstrate the advantage of considering global datasets using this technique. The technique developed is demonstrated here for mobility metrics, but can be applied to many other global datasets of volcanic parameters. In particular, such methods can provide a means to better contain parameters for volcanoes for which we only have sparse data, a ubiquitous problem in volcanology.

Search for supersymmetry in pp collisions at sqrt[s]=1.96 TeV Using the trilepton signature for chargino-neutralino production.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Adelman, J; Akimoto, T; Albrow, M G; Alvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Ashmanskas, W; Attal, A; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Azzurri, P; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Bartsch, V; Bauer, G; Beauchemin, P-H; Bedeschi, F; Bednar, P; Beecher, D; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Beringer, J; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Blair, R E; Blocker, C; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Boisvert, V; Bolla, G; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Bridgeman, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brubaker, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Byrum, K L; Cabrera, S; Calancha, C; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chang, S H; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chou, J P; Choudalakis, G; Chuang, S H; Chung, K; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciobanu, C I; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clark, D; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Copic, K; Cordelli, M; Cortiana, G; Cox, D J; Crescioli, F; Almenar, C Cuenca; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Cully, J C; Dagenhart, D; Datta, M; Davies, T; de Barbaro, P; De Cecco, S; Deisher, A; De Lorenzo, G; Dell'orso, M; Deluca, C; Demortier, L; Deng, J; Deninno, M; Derwent, P F; Devlin, T; di Giovanni, G P; Dionisi, C; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Donini, J; Dorigo, T; Dube, S; Efron, J; Elagin, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, D; Errede, S; Eusebi, R; Fang, H C; Farrington, S; Fedorko, W T; Feild, R G; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Ferrazza, C; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Galyardt, J; Garberson, F; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Genser, K; Gerberich, H; Gerdes, D; Gessler, A; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Gimmell, J L; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giordani, M; Giromini, P; Giunta, M; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glatzer, J; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Gresele, A; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Grundler, U; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Gunay-Unalan, Z; Haber, C; Hahn, K; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Han, B-Y; Han, J Y; Handler, R; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harper, S; Harr, R F; Harris, R M; Hartz, M; Hatakeyama, K; Hauser, J; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heijboer, A; Heinemann, B; Heinrich, J; Henderson, C; Herndon, M; Heuser, J; Hewamanage, S; Hidas, D; Hill, C S; Hirschbuehl, D; Hocker, A; Hou, S; Houlden, M; Hsu, S-C; Huffman, B T; Hughes, R E; Husemann, U; Huston, J; Incandela, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; James, E; Jayatilaka, B; Jeon, E J; Jha, M K; Jindariani, S; Johnson, W; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Jung, J E; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Kar, D; Karchin, P E; Kato, Y; Kephart, R; Keung, J; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kimura, N; Kirsch, L; Klimenko, S; Knuteson, B; Ko, B R; Koay, S A; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotwal, A V; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krop, D; Krumnack, N; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kubo, T; Kuhr, T; Kulkarni, N P; Kurata, M; Kusakabe, Y; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lazzizzera, I; Lecompte, T; Lee, E; Lee, H; Lee, S W; Leone, S; Lewis, J D; Lin, C S; Linacre, J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, C; Liu, T; Lockyer, N S; Loginov, A; Loreti, M; Lovas, L; Lu, R-S; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Luci, C; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lyons, L; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Lytken, E; Mack, P; Macqueen, D; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Makhoul, K; Maki, T; Maksimovic, P; Malde, S; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Marino, C P; Martin, A; Martin, V; Martínez, M; Martínez-Ballarín, R; Maruyama, T; Mastrandrea, P; Masubuchi, T; Mattson, M E; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Menzione, A; Merkel, P; Mesropian, C; Miao, T; Miladinovic, N; Miller, R; Mills, C; Milnik, M; Mitra, A; Mitselmakher, G; Miyake, H; Moggi, N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M J; Morlok, J; Movilla Fernandez, P; Mülmenstädt, J; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Mumford, R; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Nagano, A; Naganoma, J; Nakamura, K; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Necula, V; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Norman, M; Norniella, O; Nurse, E; Oakes, L; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Orava, R; Osterberg, K; Pagan Griso, S; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Papaikonomou, A; Paramonov, A A; Parks, B; Pashapour, S; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Pianori, E; Pinera, L; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Poukhov, O; Pounder, N; Prakoshyn, F; Pronko, A; Proudfoot, J; Ptohos, F; Pueschel, E; Punzi, G; Pursley, J; Rademacker, J; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Reisert, B; Rekovic, V; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Richter, S; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rodriguez, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Rossi, M; Rossin, R; Roy, P; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Saarikko, H; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Saltó, O; Santi, L; Sarkar, S; Sartori, L; Sato, K; Savoy-Navarro, A; Scheidle, T; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, A; Schmidt, E E; Schmidt, M A; Schmidt, M P; Schmitt, M; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scott, A L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Sedov, A; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sexton-Kennedy, L; Sfyrla, A; Shalhout, S Z; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Sherman, D; Shimojima, M; Shiraishi, S; Shochet, M; Shon, Y; Shreyber, I; Sidoti, A; Sinervo, P; Sisakyan, A; Slaughter, A J; Slaunwhite, J; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Snihur, R; Soha, A; Somalwar, S; Sood, A; Sorin, V; Spalding, J; Spreitzer, T; Squillacioti, P; Stanitzki, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Stuart, D; Suh, J S; Sukhanov, A; Suslov, I; Suzuki, T; Taffard, A; Takashima, R; Takeuchi, Y; Tanaka, R; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Terashi, K; Thom, J; Thompson, A S; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Tipton, P; Tiwari, V; Tkaczyk, S; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Totaro, P; Tourneur, S; Tu, Y; Turini, N; Ukegawa, F; Vallecorsa, S; van Remortel, N; Varganov, A; Vataga, E; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Veszpremi, V; Vidal, M; Vidal, R; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vine, T; Vogel, M; Volobouev, I; Volpi, G; Würthwein, F; Wagner, P; Wagner, R G; Wagner, R L; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Wagner, W; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Weinberger, M; Wester, W C; Whitehouse, B; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Williams, G; Williams, H H; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, C; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wynne, S M; Xie, S; Yagil, A; Yamamoto, K; Yamaoka, J; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W M; Yeh, G P; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanello, L; Zanetti, A; Zaw, I; Zhang, X; Zheng, Y; Zucchelli, S

2008-12-19

We use the three lepton and missing energy trilepton signature to search for chargino-neutralino production with 2.0 fb;{-1} of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II experiment at the Tevatron pp[over ] collider. We expect an excess of approximately 11 supersymmetric events for a choice of parameters of the mSUGRA model, but our observation of 7 events is consistent with the standard model expectation of 6.4 events. We constrain the mSUGRA model of supersymmetry and rule out chargino masses up to 145 GeV/c;{2} for a specific choice of parameters.

Estimating parametric phenotypes that determine anthesis date in Zea mays: Challenges in combining ecophysiological models with genetics

PubMed Central

Welch, Stephen M.; White, Jeffrey W.; Thorp, Kelly R.; Bello, Nora M.

2018-01-01

Ecophysiological crop models encode intra-species behaviors using parameters that are presumed to summarize genotypic properties of individual lines or cultivars. These genotype-specific parameters (GSP’s) can be interpreted as quantitative traits that can be mapped or otherwise analyzed, as are more conventional traits. The goal of this study was to investigate the estimation of parameters controlling maize anthesis date with the CERES-Maize model, based on 5,266 maize lines from 11 plantings at locations across the eastern United States. High performance computing was used to develop a database of 356 million simulated anthesis dates in response to four CERES-Maize model parameters. Although the resulting estimates showed high predictive value (R2 = 0.94), three issues presented serious challenges for use of GSP’s as traits. First (expressivity), the model was unable to express the observed data for 168 to 3,339 lines (depending on the combination of site-years), many of which ended up sharing the same parameter value irrespective of genetics. Second, for 2,254 lines, the model reproduced the data, but multiple parameter sets were equally effective (equifinality). Third, parameter values were highly dependent (p<10−6919) on the sets of environments used to estimate them (instability), calling in to question the assumption that they represent fundamental genetic traits. The issues of expressivity, equifinality and instability must be addressed before the genetic mapping of GSP’s becomes a robust means to help solve the genotype-to-phenotype problem in crops. PMID:29672629

The non-linear response of a muscle in transverse compression: assessment of geometry influence using a finite element model.

PubMed

Gras, Laure-Lise; Mitton, David; Crevier-Denoix, Nathalie; Laporte, Sébastien

2012-01-01

Most recent finite element models that represent muscles are generic or subject-specific models that use complex, constitutive laws. Identification of the parameters of such complex, constitutive laws could be an important limit for subject-specific approaches. The aim of this study was to assess the possibility of modelling muscle behaviour in compression with a parametric model and a simple, constitutive law. A quasi-static compression test was performed on the muscles of dogs. A parametric finite element model was designed using a linear, elastic, constitutive law. A multi-variate analysis was performed to assess the effects of geometry on muscle response. An inverse method was used to define Young's modulus. The non-linear response of the muscles was obtained using a subject-specific geometry and a linear elastic law. Thus, a simple muscle model can be used to have a bio-faithful, biomechanical response.

Leaf photosynthesis and respiration of three bioenergy crops in relation to temperature and leaf nitrogen: how conserved are biochemical model parameters among crop species?

PubMed Central

Archontoulis, S. V.; Yin, X.; Vos, J.; Danalatos, N. G.; Struik, P. C.

2012-01-01

Given the need for parallel increases in food and energy production from crops in the context of global change, crop simulation models and data sets to feed these models with photosynthesis and respiration parameters are increasingly important. This study provides information on photosynthesis and respiration for three energy crops (sunflower, kenaf, and cynara), reviews relevant information for five other crops (wheat, barley, cotton, tobacco, and grape), and assesses how conserved photosynthesis parameters are among crops. Using large data sets and optimization techniques, the C3 leaf photosynthesis model of Farquhar, von Caemmerer, and Berry (FvCB) and an empirical night respiration model for tested energy crops accounting for effects of temperature and leaf nitrogen were parameterized. Instead of the common approach of using information on net photosynthesis response to CO2 at the stomatal cavity (An–Ci), the model was parameterized by analysing the photosynthesis response to incident light intensity (An–Iinc). Convincing evidence is provided that the maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate or the maximum electron transport rate was very similar whether derived from An–Ci or from An–Iinc data sets. Parameters characterizing Rubisco limitation, electron transport limitation, the degree to which light inhibits leaf respiration, night respiration, and the minimum leaf nitrogen required for photosynthesis were then determined. Model predictions were validated against independent sets. Only a few FvCB parameters were conserved among crop species, thus species-specific FvCB model parameters are needed for crop modelling. Therefore, information from readily available but underexplored An–Iinc data should be re-analysed, thereby expanding the potential of combining classical photosynthetic data and the biochemical model. PMID:22021569

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters from the Angular Power Spectrum of a Combined 2500 deg$^2$ SPT-SZ and Planck Gravitational Lensing Map

DOE PAGES

Simard, G.; et al.

2018-06-20

We report constraints on cosmological parameters from the angular power spectrum of a cosmic microwave background (CMB) gravitational lensing potential map created using temperature data from 2500 degmore » $^2$ of South Pole Telescope (SPT) data supplemented with data from Planck in the same sky region, with the statistical power in the combined map primarily from the SPT data. We fit the corresponding lensing angular power spectrum to a model including cold dark matter and a cosmological constant ($$\\Lambda$$CDM), and to models with single-parameter extensions to $$\\Lambda$$CDM. We find constraints that are comparable to and consistent with constraints found using the full-sky Planck CMB lensing data. Specifically, we find $$\\sigma_8 \\Omega_{\\rm m}^{0.25}=0.598 \\pm 0.024$$ from the lensing data alone with relatively weak priors placed on the other $$\\Lambda$$CDM parameters. In combination with primary CMB data from Planck, we explore single-parameter extensions to the $$\\Lambda$$CDM model. We find $$\\Omega_k = -0.012^{+0.021}_{-0.023}$$ or $$M_{\

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters from the Angular Power Spectrum of a Combined 2500 deg$^2$ SPT-SZ and Planck Gravitational Lensing Map

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simard, G.; et al.

We report constraints on cosmological parameters from the angular power spectrum of a cosmic microwave background (CMB) gravitational lensing potential map created using temperature data from 2500 degmore » $^2$ of South Pole Telescope (SPT) data supplemented with data from Planck in the same sky region, with the statistical power in the combined map primarily from the SPT data. We fit the corresponding lensing angular power spectrum to a model including cold dark matter and a cosmological constant ($$\\Lambda$$CDM), and to models with single-parameter extensions to $$\\Lambda$$CDM. We find constraints that are comparable to and consistent with constraints found using the full-sky Planck CMB lensing data. Specifically, we find $$\\sigma_8 \\Omega_{\\rm m}^{0.25}=0.598 \\pm 0.024$$ from the lensing data alone with relatively weak priors placed on the other $$\\Lambda$$CDM parameters. In combination with primary CMB data from Planck, we explore single-parameter extensions to the $$\\Lambda$$CDM model. We find $$\\Omega_k = -0.012^{+0.021}_{-0.023}$$ or $$M_{\

Nonminimal coupling for the gravitational and electromagnetic fields: Black hole solutions and solitons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balakin, Alexander B.; Bochkarev, Vladimir V.; Lemos, José P. S.

2008-04-01

Using a Lagrangian formalism, a three-parameter nonminimal Einstein-Maxwell theory is established. The three parameters q1, q2, and q3 characterize the cross-terms in the Lagrangian, between the Maxwell field and terms linear in the Ricci scalar, Ricci tensor, and Riemann tensor, respectively. Static spherically symmetric equations are set up, and the three parameters are interrelated and chosen so that effectively the system reduces to a one parameter only, q. Specific black hole and other type of one-parameter solutions are studied. First, as a preparation, the Reissner-Nordström solution, with q1=q2=q3=0, is displayed. Then, we search for solutions in which the electric field is regular everywhere as well as asymptotically Coulombian, and the metric potentials are regular at the center as well as asymptotically flat. In this context, the one-parameter model with q1≡-q, q2=2q, q3=-q, called the Gauss-Bonnet model, is analyzed in detail. The study is done through the solution of the Abel equation (the key equation), and the dynamical system associated with the model. There is extra focus on an exact solution of the model and its critical properties. Finally, an exactly integrable one-parameter model, with q1≡-q, q2=q, q3=0, is considered also in detail. A special submodel, in which the Fibonacci number appears naturally, of this one-parameter model is shown, and the corresponding exact solution is presented. Interestingly enough, it is a soliton of the theory, the Fibonacci soliton, without horizons and with a mild conical singularity at the center.

A pharmacometric case study regarding the sensitivity of structural model parameter estimation to error in patient reported dosing times.

PubMed

Knights, Jonathan; Rohatagi, Shashank

2015-12-01

Although there is a body of literature focused on minimizing the effect of dosing inaccuracies on pharmacokinetic (PK) parameter estimation, most of the work centers on missing doses. No attempt has been made to specifically characterize the effect of error in reported dosing times. Additionally, existing work has largely dealt with cases in which the compound of interest is dosed at an interval no less than its terminal half-life. This work provides a case study investigating how error in patient reported dosing times might affect the accuracy of structural model parameter estimation under sparse sampling conditions when the dosing interval is less than the terminal half-life of the compound, and the underlying kinetics are monoexponential. Additional effects due to noncompliance with dosing events are not explored and it is assumed that the structural model and reasonable initial estimates of the model parameters are known. Under the conditions of our simulations, with structural model CV % ranging from ~20 to 60 %, parameter estimation inaccuracy derived from error in reported dosing times was largely controlled around 10 % on average. Given that no observed dosing was included in the design and sparse sampling was utilized, we believe these error results represent a practical ceiling given the variability and parameter estimates for the one-compartment model. The findings suggest additional investigations may be of interest and are noteworthy given the inability of current PK software platforms to accommodate error in dosing times.

Model‐based analysis of the influence of catchment properties on hydrologic partitioning across five mountain headwater subcatchments

PubMed Central

Wagener, Thorsten; McGlynn, Brian

2015-01-01

Abstract Ungauged headwater basins are an abundant part of the river network, but dominant influences on headwater hydrologic response remain difficult to predict. To address this gap, we investigated the ability of a physically based watershed model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model) to represent controls on metrics of hydrologic partitioning across five adjacent headwater subcatchments. The five study subcatchments, located in Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in central Montana, have similar climate but variable topography and vegetation distribution. This facilitated a comparative hydrology approach to interpret how parameters that influence partitioning, detected via global sensitivity analysis, differ across catchments. Model parameters were constrained a priori using existing regional information and expert knowledge. Influential parameters were compared to perceptions of catchment functioning and its variability across subcatchments. Despite between‐catchment differences in topography and vegetation, hydrologic partitioning across all metrics and all subcatchments was sensitive to a similar subset of snow, vegetation, and soil parameters. Results also highlighted one subcatchment with low certainty in parameter sensitivity, indicating that the model poorly represented some complexities in this subcatchment likely because an important process is missing or poorly characterized in the mechanistic model. For use in other basins, this method can assess parameter sensitivities as a function of the specific ungauged system to which it is applied. Overall, this approach can be employed to identify dominant modeled controls on catchment response and their agreement with system understanding. PMID:27642197

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration.

PubMed

Klabunde, Anna; Zinn, Sabine; Willekens, Frans; Leuchter, Matthias

2017-10-01

We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

A global data set of soil hydraulic properties and sub-grid variability of soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montzka, Carsten; Herbst, Michael; Weihermüller, Lutz; Verhoef, Anne; Vereecken, Harry

2017-07-01

Agroecosystem models, regional and global climate models, and numerical weather prediction models require adequate parameterization of soil hydraulic properties. These properties are fundamental for describing and predicting water and energy exchange processes at the transition zone between solid earth and atmosphere, and regulate evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff generation. Hydraulic parameters describing the soil water retention (WRC) and hydraulic conductivity (HCC) curves are typically derived from soil texture via pedotransfer functions (PTFs). Resampling of those parameters for specific model grids is typically performed by different aggregation approaches such a spatial averaging and the use of dominant textural properties or soil classes. These aggregation approaches introduce uncertainty, bias and parameter inconsistencies throughout spatial scales due to nonlinear relationships between hydraulic parameters and soil texture. Therefore, we present a method to scale hydraulic parameters to individual model grids and provide a global data set that overcomes the mentioned problems. The approach is based on Miller-Miller scaling in the relaxed form by Warrick, that fits the parameters of the WRC through all sub-grid WRCs to provide an effective parameterization for the grid cell at model resolution; at the same time it preserves the information of sub-grid variability of the water retention curve by deriving local scaling parameters. Based on the Mualem-van Genuchten approach we also derive the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity from the water retention functions, thereby assuming that the local parameters are also valid for this function. In addition, via the Warrick scaling parameter λ, information on global sub-grid scaling variance is given that enables modellers to improve dynamical downscaling of (regional) climate models or to perturb hydraulic parameters for model ensemble output generation. The present analysis is based on the ROSETTA PTF of Schaap et al. (2001) applied to the SoilGrids1km data set of Hengl et al. (2014). The example data set is provided at a global resolution of 0.25° at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870605.

New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

The effect of noise-induced variance on parameter recovery from reaction times.

PubMed

Vadillo, Miguel A; Garaizar, Pablo

2016-03-31

Technical noise can compromise the precision and accuracy of the reaction times collected in psychological experiments, especially in the case of Internet-based studies. Although this noise seems to have only a small impact on traditional statistical analyses, its effects on model fit to reaction-time distributions remains unexplored. Across four simulations we study the impact of technical noise on parameter recovery from data generated from an ex-Gaussian distribution and from a Ratcliff Diffusion Model. Our results suggest that the impact of noise-induced variance tends to be limited to specific parameters and conditions. Although we encourage researchers to adopt all measures to reduce the impact of noise on reaction-time experiments, we conclude that the typical amount of noise-induced variance found in these experiments does not pose substantial problems for statistical analyses based on model fitting.

An inverse problem for a mathematical model of aquaponic agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobak, Carly; Kunze, Herb

2017-01-01

Aquaponic agriculture is a sustainable ecosystem that relies on a symbiotic relationship between fish and macrophytes. While the practice has been growing in popularity, relatively little mathematical models exist which aim to study the system processes. In this paper, we present a system of ODEs which aims to mathematically model the population and concetrations dynamics present in an aquaponic environment. Values of the parameters in the system are estimated from the literature so that simulated results can be presented to illustrate the nature of the solutions to the system. As well, a brief sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify redundant parameters and highlight those which may need more reliable estimates. Specifically, an inverse problem with manufactured data for fish and plants is presented to demonstrate the ability of the collage theorem to recover parameter estimates.

Path loss variation of on-body UWB channel in the frequency bands of IEEE 802.15.6 standard.

PubMed

Goswami, Dayananda; Sarma, Kanak C; Mahanta, Anil

2016-06-01

The wireless body area network (WBAN) has gaining tremendous attention among researchers and academicians for its envisioned applications in healthcare service. Ultra wideband (UWB) radio technology is considered as excellent air interface for communication among body area network devices. Characterisation and modelling of channel parameters are utmost prerequisite for the development of reliable communication system. The path loss of on-body UWB channel for each frequency band defined in IEEE 802.15.6 standard is experimentally determined. The parameters of path loss model are statistically determined by analysing measurement data. Both the line-of-sight and non-line-of-sight channel conditions are considered in the measurement. Variations of parameter values with the size of human body are analysed along with the variation of parameter values with the surrounding environments. It is observed that the parameters of the path loss model vary with the frequency band as well as with the body size and surrounding environment. The derived parameter values are specific to the particular frequency bands of IEEE 802.15.6 standard, which will be useful for the development of efficient UWB WBAN system.

Model Test Bed for Evaluating Wave Models and Best Practices for Resource Assessment and Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neary, Vincent Sinclair; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping

A wave model test bed is established to benchmark, test and evaluate spectral wave models and modeling methodologies (i.e., best practices) for predicting the wave energy resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission, IEC TS 62600-101Ed. 1.0 ©2015. Among other benefits, the model test bed can be used to investigate the suitability of different models, specifically what source terms should be included in spectral wave models under different wave climate conditions and for different classes of resource assessment. The overarching goal is to use these investigations to provide industry guidance for model selection and modeling best practices depending onmore » the wave site conditions and desired class of resource assessment. Modeling best practices are reviewed, and limitations and knowledge gaps in predicting wave energy resource parameters are identified.« less

Simulation, identification and statistical variation in cardiovascular analysis (SISCA) - A software framework for multi-compartment lumped modeling.

PubMed

Huttary, Rudolf; Goubergrits, Leonid; Schütte, Christof; Bernhard, Stefan

2017-08-01

It has not yet been possible to obtain modeling approaches suitable for covering a wide range of real world scenarios in cardiovascular physiology because many of the system parameters are uncertain or even unknown. Natural variability and statistical variation of cardiovascular system parameters in healthy and diseased conditions are characteristic features for understanding cardiovascular diseases in more detail. This paper presents SISCA, a novel software framework for cardiovascular system modeling and its MATLAB implementation. The framework defines a multi-model statistical ensemble approach for dimension reduced, multi-compartment models and focuses on statistical variation, system identification and patient-specific simulation based on clinical data. We also discuss a data-driven modeling scenario as a use case example. The regarded dataset originated from routine clinical examinations and comprised typical pre and post surgery clinical data from a patient diagnosed with coarctation of aorta. We conducted patient and disease specific pre/post surgery modeling by adapting a validated nominal multi-compartment model with respect to structure and parametrization using metadata and MRI geometry. In both models, the simulation reproduced measured pressures and flows fairly well with respect to stenosis and stent treatment and by pre-treatment cross stenosis phase shift of the pulse wave. However, with post-treatment data showing unrealistic phase shifts and other more obvious inconsistencies within the dataset, the methods and results we present suggest that conditioning and uncertainty management of routine clinical data sets needs significantly more attention to obtain reasonable results in patient-specific cardiovascular modeling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mathematical model to optimize the drain phase in gravity-based peritoneal dialysis systems.

PubMed

Akonur, Alp; Lo, Ying-Cheng; Cizman, Borut

2010-01-01

Use of patient-specific drain-phase parameters has previously been suggested to improve peritoneal dialysis (PD) adequacy. Improving management of the drain period may also help to minimize intraperitoneal volume (IPV). A typical gravity-based drain profile consists of a relatively constant initial fast-flow period, followed by a transition period and a decaying slow-flow period. That profile was modeled using the equation VD(t) = (V(D0) - Q(MAX) x t) xphi + (V(D0) x e(-alphat)) x (1 - phi), where V(D)(t) is the time-dependent dialysate volume; V(D0), the dialysate volume at the start of the drain; Q(MAX), the maximum drain flow rate; alpha, the exponential drain constant; and phi, the unit step function with respect to the flow transition. We simulated the effects of the assumed patient-specific maximum drain flow (Q(MAX)) and transition volume (psi), and the peritoneal volume percentage when transition occurs,for fixed device-specific drain parameters. Average patient transport parameters were assumed during 5-exchange therapy with 10 L of PD solution. Changes in therapy performance strongly depended on the drain parameters. Comparing 400 mL/85% with 200 mL/65% (Q(MAX/psi), drain time (7.5 min vs. 13.5 min) and IPV (2769 mL vs. 2355 mL) increased when the initial drain flow was low and the transition quick. Ultrafiltration and solute clearances remained relatively similar. Such differences were augmented up to a drain time of 22 minutes and an IPV of more than 3 L when Q(MAX) was 100 mL/min. The ability to model individual drain conditions together with water and solute transport may help to prevent patient discomfort with gravity-based PD. However, it is essential to note that practical difficulties such as displaced catheters and obstructed flow paths cause variability in drain characteristics even for the same patient, limiting the clinical applicability of this model.

Model predictive control of attitude maneuver of a geostationary flexible satellite based on genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

TayyebTaher, M.; Esmaeilzadeh, S. Majid

2017-07-01

This article presents an application of Model Predictive Controller (MPC) to the attitude control of a geostationary flexible satellite. SIMO model has been used for the geostationary satellite, using the Lagrange equations. Flexibility is also included in the modelling equations. The state space equations are expressed in order to simplify the controller. Naturally there is no specific tuning rule to find the best parameters of an MPC controller which fits the desired controller. Being an intelligence method for optimizing problem, Genetic Algorithm has been used for optimizing the performance of MPC controller by tuning the controller parameter due to minimum rise time, settling time, overshoot of the target point of the flexible structure and its mode shape amplitudes to make large attitude maneuvers possible. The model included geosynchronous orbit environment and geostationary satellite parameters. The simulation results of the flexible satellite with attitude maneuver shows the efficiency of proposed optimization method in comparison with LQR optimal controller.

Application of ADM1 for modeling of biogas production from anaerobic digestion of Hydrilla verticillata.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaojuan; Chen, Zhihua; Wang, Xun; Huo, Chan; Hu, Zhiquan; Xiao, Bo; Hu, Mian

2016-07-01

The present study focused on the application of anaerobic digestion model no. 1 (ADM1) to simulate biogas production from Hydrilla verticillata. Model simulation was carried out by implementing ADM1 in AQUASIM 2.0 software. Sensitivity analysis was used to select the most sensitive parameters for estimation using the absolute-relative sensitivity function. Among all the kinetic parameters, disintegration constant (kdis), hydrolysis constant of protein (khyd_pr), Monod maximum specific substrate uptake rate (km_aa, km_ac, km_h2) and half-saturation constants (Ks_aa, Ks_ac) affect biogas production significantly, which were optimized by fitting of the model equations to the data obtained from batch experiments. The ADM1 model after parameter estimation was able to well predict the experimental results of daily biogas production and biogas composition. The simulation results of evolution of organic acids, bacteria concentrations and inhibition effects also helped to get insight into the reaction mechanisms. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An experimental and modeling study of isothermal charge/discharge behavior of commercial Ni-MH cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Y. H.; Srinivasan, V.; Wang, C. Y.

In this study, a previously developed nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) battery model is applied in conjunction with experimental characterization. Important geometric parameters, including the active surface area and micro-diffusion length for both electrodes, are measured and incorporated in the model. The kinetic parameters of the oxygen evolution reaction are also characterized using constant potential experiments. Two separate equilibrium equations for the Ni electrode, one for charge and the other for discharge, are determined to provide a better description of the electrode hysteresis effect, and their use results in better agreement of simulation results with experimental data on both charge and discharge. The Ni electrode kinetic parameters are re-calibrated for the battery studied. The Ni-MH cell model coupled with the updated electrochemical properties is then used to simulate a wide range of experimental discharge and charge curves with satisfactory agreement. The experimentally validated model is used to predict and compare various charge algorithms so as to provide guidelines for application-specific optimization.

General ecological models for human subsistence, health and poverty.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; De Leo, Giulio A; Pascual, Mercedes M; Keenan, Donald C; Dobson, Andrew P; Bonds, Matthew H

2017-08-01

The world's rural poor rely heavily on their immediate natural environment for subsistence and suffer high rates of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases. We present a general framework for modelling subsistence and health of the rural poor by coupling simple dynamic models of population ecology with those for economic growth. The models show that feedbacks between the biological and economic systems can lead to a state of persistent poverty. Analyses of a wide range of specific systems under alternative assumptions show the existence of three possible regimes corresponding to a globally stable development equilibrium, a globally stable poverty equilibrium and bistability. Bistability consistently emerges as a property of generalized disease-economic systems for about a fifth of the feasible parameter space. The overall proportion of parameters leading to poverty is larger than that resulting in healthy/wealthy development. All the systems are found to be most sensitive to human disease parameters. The framework highlights feedbacks, processes and parameters that are important to measure in studies of rural poverty to identify effective pathways towards sustainable development.

Development of Viscosity Model for Petroleum Industry Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motahhari, Hamed reza

Heavy oil and bitumen are challenging to produce and process due to their very high viscosity, but their viscosity can be reduced either by heating or dilution with a solvent. Given the key role of viscosity, an accurate viscosity model suitable for use with reservoir and process simulators is essential. While there are several viscosity models for natural gases and conventional oils, a compositional model applicable to heavy petroleum and diluents is lacking. The objective of this thesis is to develop a general compositional viscosity model that is applicable to natural gas mixtures, conventional crudes oils, heavy petroleum fluids, and their mixtures with solvents and other crudes. The recently developed Expanded Fluid (EF) viscosity correlation was selected as a suitable compositional viscosity model for petroleum applications. The correlation relates the viscosity of the fluid to its density over a broad range of pressures and temperatures. The other inputs are pressure and the dilute gas viscosity. Each fluid is characterized for the correlation by a set of fluid-specific parameters which are tuned to fit data. First, the applicability of the EF correlation was extended to asymmetric mixtures and liquid mixtures containing dissolved gas components. A new set of mass-fraction based mixing rules was developed to calculate the fluid-specific parameters for mixtures. The EF correlation with the new set of mixing rules predicted the viscosity of over 100 mixtures of hydrocarbon compounds and carbon dioxide with overall average absolute relative deviations (AARD) of less than 10% either with measured densities or densities estimated by Advanced Peng-Robinson equation of state (APR EoS). To improve the viscosity predictions with APR EoS-estimated densities, general correlations were developed for non-zero viscosity binary interaction parameters. The EF correlation was extended to non-hydrocarbon compounds typically encountered in natural gas industry. It was demonstrated that the framework of the correlation is valid for these compounds, except for compounds with strong hydrogen bonding such as water. A temperature dependency was introduced into the correlation for strongly hydrogen bonding compounds. The EF correlation fit the viscosity data of pure non-hydrocarbon compounds with AARDs below 6% and predicted the viscosity of sour and sweet natural gases and aqueous solutions of organic alcohols with overall AARDs less than 9%. An internally consistent estimation method was also developed to calculate the fluid-specific parameters for hydrocarbons when no experimental viscosity data are available. The method correlates the fluid-specific parameters to the molecular weight and specific gravity. The method was evaluated against viscosity data of over 250 pure hydrocarbon compounds and petroleum distillations cuts. The EF correlation predictions were found to be within the same order of magnitude of the measurements with an overall AARD of 31%. A methodology was then proposed to apply the EF viscosity correlation to crude oils characterized as mixtures of the defined components and pseudo-components. The above estimation methods are used to calculate the fluid-specific parameters for pseudo-components. Guidelines are provided for tuning of the correlation to available viscosity data, calculating the dilute gas viscosities, and improving the densities calculated with the Peng-Robinson EoS. The viscosities of over 10 dead and live crude oils and bitumen were predicted within a factor of 3 of the measured values using the measured density of the oils as the input. It was shown that single parameter tuning of the model improved the viscosity prediction to within 30% of the measured values. Finally, the performance of the EF correlation was evaluated for diluted heavy oils and bitumens. The required density and viscosity data were collected for over 20 diluted dead and live bitumen mixtures using an in-house capillary viscometer also equipped with an in-line density-meter at temperatures and pressures up to 175 °C and 10 MPa. The predictions of the correlation were found within the same order of magnitude of the measured values with overall AARDs less than 20%. It was shown that the predictions of the correlation with generalized non-zero interaction parameters for the solvent-oil pairs were improved to overall AARDs less than 10%.

Modeling Single Ventricle Physiology: Review of Engineering Tools to Study First Stage Palliation of Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome

PubMed Central

Biglino, Giovanni; Giardini, Alessandro; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Figliola, Richard; Taylor, Andrew M.; Schievano, Silvia

2013-01-01

First stage palliation of hypoplastic left heart syndrome, i.e., the Norwood operation, results in a complex physiological arrangement, involving different shunting options (modified Blalock-Taussig, RV-PA conduit, central shunt from the ascending aorta) and enlargement of the hypoplastic ascending aorta. Engineering techniques, both computational and experimental, can aid in the understanding of the Norwood physiology and their correct implementation can potentially lead to refinement of the decision-making process, by means of patient-specific simulations. This paper presents some of the available tools that can corroborate clinical evidence by providing detailed insight into the fluid dynamics of the Norwood circulation as well as alternative surgical scenarios (i.e., virtual surgery). Patient-specific anatomies can be manufactured by means of rapid prototyping and such models can be inserted in experimental set-ups (mock circulatory loops) that can provide a valuable source of validation data as well as hydrodynamic information. Such models can be tuned to respond to differing the patient physiologies. Experimental set-ups can also be compatible with visualization techniques, like particle image velocimetry and cardiovascular magnetic resonance, further adding to the knowledge of the local fluid dynamics. Multi-scale computational models include detailed three-dimensional (3D) anatomical information coupled to a lumped parameter network representing the remainder of the circulation. These models output both overall hemodynamic parameters while also enabling to investigate the local fluid dynamics of the aortic arch or the shunt. As an alternative, pure lumped parameter models can also be employed to model Stage 1 palliation, taking advantage of a much lower computational cost, albeit missing the 3D anatomical component. Finally, analytical techniques, such as wave intensity analysis, can be employed to study the Norwood physiology, providing a mechanistic perspective on the ventriculo-arterial coupling for this specific surgical scenario. PMID:24400277

From Inverse Problems in Mathematical Physiology to Quantitative Differential Diagnoses

PubMed Central

Zenker, Sven; Rubin, Jonathan; Clermont, Gilles

2007-01-01

The improved capacity to acquire quantitative data in a clinical setting has generally failed to improve outcomes in acutely ill patients, suggesting a need for advances in computer-supported data interpretation and decision making. In particular, the application of mathematical models of experimentally elucidated physiological mechanisms could augment the interpretation of quantitative, patient-specific information and help to better target therapy. Yet, such models are typically complex and nonlinear, a reality that often precludes the identification of unique parameters and states of the model that best represent available data. Hypothesizing that this non-uniqueness can convey useful information, we implemented a simplified simulation of a common differential diagnostic process (hypotension in an acute care setting), using a combination of a mathematical model of the cardiovascular system, a stochastic measurement model, and Bayesian inference techniques to quantify parameter and state uncertainty. The output of this procedure is a probability density function on the space of model parameters and initial conditions for a particular patient, based on prior population information together with patient-specific clinical observations. We show that multimodal posterior probability density functions arise naturally, even when unimodal and uninformative priors are used. The peaks of these densities correspond to clinically relevant differential diagnoses and can, in the simplified simulation setting, be constrained to a single diagnosis by assimilating additional observations from dynamical interventions (e.g., fluid challenge). We conclude that the ill-posedness of the inverse problem in quantitative physiology is not merely a technical obstacle, but rather reflects clinical reality and, when addressed adequately in the solution process, provides a novel link between mathematically described physiological knowledge and the clinical concept of differential diagnoses. We outline possible steps toward translating this computational approach to the bedside, to supplement today's evidence-based medicine with a quantitatively founded model-based medicine that integrates mechanistic knowledge with patient-specific information. PMID:17997590

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simard, G.; et al.

We report constraints on cosmological parameters from the angular power spectrum of a cosmic microwave background (CMB) gravitational lensing potential map created using temperature data from 2500 degmore » $^2$ of South Pole Telescope (SPT) data supplemented with data from Planck in the same sky region, with the statistical power in the combined map primarily from the SPT data. We fit the corresponding lensing angular power spectrum to a model including cold dark matter and a cosmological constant ($$\\Lambda$$CDM), and to models with single-parameter extensions to $$\\Lambda$$CDM. We find constraints that are comparable to and consistent with constraints found using the full-sky Planck CMB lensing data. Specifically, we find $$\\sigma_8 \\Omega_{\\rm m}^{0.25}=0.598 \\pm 0.024$$ from the lensing data alone with relatively weak priors placed on the other $$\\Lambda$$CDM parameters. In combination with primary CMB data from Planck, we explore single-parameter extensions to the $$\\Lambda$$CDM model. We find $$\\Omega_k = -0.012^{+0.021}_{-0.023}$$ or $$M_{\

Multidisciplinary Biomarkers of Early Mammary Carcinogenesis

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

ABSTRACT The purpose of the proposed research is to develop novel optical technologies to identify high-risk premalignant changes in the breast ...Our proposed research will first test specific optical parameters in breast cancer cell lines and models of early mammary carcinogenesis, and then...develop methods to test the optical parameters in random periareolar fine needle aspirate (RPFNA) samples from women at high-risk for developing breast

SVM-based automatic diagnosis method for keratoconus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yuhong; Wu, Qiang; Li, Jing; Sun, Jiande; Wan, Wenbo

2017-06-01

Keratoconus is a progressive cornea disease that can lead to serious myopia and astigmatism, or even to corneal transplantation, if it becomes worse. The early detection of keratoconus is extremely important to know and control its condition. In this paper, we propose an automatic diagnosis algorithm for keratoconus to discriminate the normal eyes and keratoconus ones. We select the parameters obtained by Oculyzer as the feature of cornea, which characterize the cornea both directly and indirectly. In our experiment, 289 normal cases and 128 keratoconus cases are divided into training and test sets respectively. Far better than other kernels, the linear kernel of SVM has sensitivity of 94.94% and specificity of 97.87% with all the parameters training in the model. In single parameter experiment of linear kernel, elevation with 92.03% sensitivity and 98.61% specificity and thickness with 97.28% sensitivity and 97.82% specificity showed their good classification abilities. Combining elevation and thickness of the cornea, the proposed method can reach 97.43% sensitivity and 99.19% specificity. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed automatic diagnosis method is feasible and reliable.

q-deformed Einstein's model to describe specific heat of solid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Atanu; Das, Prasanta Kumar

2018-04-01

Realistic phenomena can be described more appropriately using generalized canonical ensemble, with proper parameter sets involved. We have generalized the Einstein's theory for specific heat of solid in Tsallis statistics, where the temperature fluctuation is introduced into the theory via the fluctuation parameter q. At low temperature the Einstein's curve of the specific heat in the nonextensive Tsallis scenario exactly lies on the experimental data points. Consequently this q-modified Einstein's curve is found to be overlapping with the one predicted by Debye. Considering only the temperature fluctuation effect(even without considering more than one mode of vibration is being triggered) we found that the CV vs T curve is as good as obtained by considering the different modes of vibration as suggested by Debye. Generalizing the Einstein's theory in Tsallis statistics we found that a unique value of the Einstein temperature θE along with a temperature dependent deformation parameter q(T) , can well describe the phenomena of specific heat of solid i.e. the theory is equivalent to Debye's theory with a temperature dependent θD.

Resimulation of noise: a precision estimator for least square error curve-fitting tested for axial strain time constant imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, S. P.; Righetti, R.

2015-05-01

Recent elastography techniques focus on imaging information on properties of materials which can be modeled as viscoelastic or poroelastic. These techniques often require the fitting of temporal strain data, acquired from either a creep or stress-relaxation experiment to a mathematical model using least square error (LSE) parameter estimation. It is known that the strain versus time relationships for tissues undergoing creep compression have a non-linear relationship. In non-linear cases, devising a measure of estimate reliability can be challenging. In this article, we have developed and tested a method to provide non linear LSE parameter estimate reliability: which we called Resimulation of Noise (RoN). RoN provides a measure of reliability by estimating the spread of parameter estimates from a single experiment realization. We have tested RoN specifically for the case of axial strain time constant parameter estimation in poroelastic media. Our tests show that the RoN estimated precision has a linear relationship to the actual precision of the LSE estimator. We have also compared results from the RoN derived measure of reliability against a commonly used reliability measure: the correlation coefficient (CorrCoeff). Our results show that CorrCoeff is a poor measure of estimate reliability for non-linear LSE parameter estimation. While the RoN is specifically tested only for axial strain time constant imaging, a general algorithm is provided for use in all LSE parameter estimation.

Design and validation of diffusion MRI models of white matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jelescu, Ileana O.; Budde, Matthew D.

2017-11-01

Diffusion MRI is arguably the method of choice for characterizing white matter microstructure in vivo. Over the typical duration of diffusion encoding, the displacement of water molecules is conveniently on a length scale similar to that of the underlying cellular structures. Moreover, water molecules in white matter are largely compartmentalized which enables biologically-inspired compartmental diffusion models to characterize and quantify the true biological microstructure. A plethora of white matter models have been proposed. However, overparameterization and mathematical fitting complications encourage the introduction of simplifying assumptions that vary between different approaches. These choices impact the quantitative estimation of model parameters with potential detriments to their biological accuracy and promised specificity. First, we review biophysical white matter models in use and recapitulate their underlying assumptions and realms of applicability. Second, we present up-to-date efforts to validate parameters estimated from biophysical models. Simulations and dedicated phantoms are useful in assessing the performance of models when the ground truth is known. However, the biggest challenge remains the validation of the “biological accuracy” of estimated parameters. Complementary techniques such as microscopy of fixed tissue specimens have facilitated direct comparisons of estimates of white matter fiber orientation and densities. However, validation of compartmental diffusivities remains challenging, and complementary MRI-based techniques such as alternative diffusion encodings, compartment-specific contrast agents and metabolites have been used to validate diffusion models. Finally, white matter injury and disease pose additional challenges to modeling, which are also discussed. This review aims to provide an overview of the current state of models and their validation and to stimulate further research in the field to solve the remaining open questions and converge towards consensus.

Design and validation of diffusion MRI models of white matter

PubMed Central

Jelescu, Ileana O.; Budde, Matthew D.

2018-01-01

Diffusion MRI is arguably the method of choice for characterizing white matter microstructure in vivo. Over the typical duration of diffusion encoding, the displacement of water molecules is conveniently on a length scale similar to that of the underlying cellular structures. Moreover, water molecules in white matter are largely compartmentalized which enables biologically-inspired compartmental diffusion models to characterize and quantify the true biological microstructure. A plethora of white matter models have been proposed. However, overparameterization and mathematical fitting complications encourage the introduction of simplifying assumptions that vary between different approaches. These choices impact the quantitative estimation of model parameters with potential detriments to their biological accuracy and promised specificity. First, we review biophysical white matter models in use and recapitulate their underlying assumptions and realms of applicability. Second, we present up-to-date efforts to validate parameters estimated from biophysical models. Simulations and dedicated phantoms are useful in assessing the performance of models when the ground truth is known. However, the biggest challenge remains the validation of the “biological accuracy” of estimated parameters. Complementary techniques such as microscopy of fixed tissue specimens have facilitated direct comparisons of estimates of white matter fiber orientation and densities. However, validation of compartmental diffusivities remains challenging, and complementary MRI-based techniques such as alternative diffusion encodings, compartment-specific contrast agents and metabolites have been used to validate diffusion models. Finally, white matter injury and disease pose additional challenges to modeling, which are also discussed. This review aims to provide an overview of the current state of models and their validation and to stimulate further research in the field to solve the remaining open questions and converge towards consensus. PMID:29755979

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

iCARE

Cancer.gov

The iCARE R Package allows researchers to quickly build models for absolute risk, and apply them to estimate an individual's risk of developing disease during a specifed time interval, based on a set of user defined input parameters.

Investigation of discharge channel wall material influence on lifetime of hall effect thruster with high specific impulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abashkin, V. V.; Belikov, M. B.; Gorshkov, O. A.; Lovtsov, A. S.; Khrapach, I. N.

2011-10-01

Results of 500-hour life tests of the 900-watt Hall-thruster laboratory model with the specific impulse of 2000 s are presented. The thruster discharge channel walls were manufactured from 60% BN + 40% SiO2 and >90% BN hot-pressed ceramics. The predicted total lifetime was ˜3000 h for both wall materials in spite of greater erosion resistance of pure BN in comparison with BN-SiO2 mixture. To clarify the accompanying phenomena, the following diagnostics were carried out. The surface microstructure and composition insulators were investigated by means of electron microscopy and X-ray fluorescence analysis and nearwall plasma parameters were measured with flat Langmuir probes. The obtained distributions of plasma parameters were compared with the results of stationary one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic modeling of discharge channel.