Science.gov

Sample records for spot market prices

  1. Real prices from spot foreign exchange market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

    2004-12-01

    In this work we discuss the problem of price definition when using high frequency foreign exchange data. If one uses the spot mid price a strong autocorrelation of returns, at one lag, is found which is only due to microstructure effect and does not capture the real behavior of price dynamics. This autocorrelation increases the intraday volatility estimated from this type of data. To solve this problem we introduce an algorithm which is able, by using the no-arbitrage principle, of eliminating every microstructure effects.

  2. Price convergence in North America natural gas spot markets

    SciTech Connect

    King, M.; Cuc, M.

    1996-12-01

    Government policy changes and subsequent regulatory actions in Canada and the United States (US) in the mid-1980s led to effective deregulation of the commodity market for natural gas. This was done by price deregulation, unbundling of pipeline services, and the fostering of a competitive market through equal and open access to pipeline transportation capacity by all suppliers and users. This paper attempts to measure the degree of price convergence in the North American natural gas spot markets. 38 refs.

  3. Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October`s total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels.

  4. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  5. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  6. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  7. Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Haesun

    2005-12-01

    Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through six long-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear

  8. Empirical Analysis of the Spot Market Implications ofPrice-Responsive Demand

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-08-01

    Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulatedelectricity industries share one common feature: the absence of anysignificant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, most electricity consumers stillpay an average cost based regulated retail tariff held over from the eraof vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are oftenforced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in openmarkets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who aresometimes additionally forbidden by regulators from signing hedgingcontracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time(or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price ofelectricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumptionaccordingly. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic,which together with the non storability of electricity that requiresmarket clearing over very short time steps spawn many other problemsassociated with electricity markets, such as exercise of market power andprice volatility. Indeed, electricity generation resources can bestretched to the point where system adequacy is threatened. Economictheory suggests that even modest price responsiveness can relieve thestress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To quantify thiseffect, actual generator bid data from the New York control area is usedto construct supply stacks and intersect them with demand curves ofvarious slopes to approximate the effect of different levels of demandresponse. The potential impact of real-time pricing (RTP) on theequilibrium spot price and quantity is then estimated. These resultsindicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a moreprice-responsive demand providing policymakers with a measure of howprices can be potentially reduced and consumption maintained within thecapability of generation assets.

  9. Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices, An

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three most recent winters with futures prices as they evolve from April through the following February, when trading for the March contract ends.

  10. Spot foreign exchange market and time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroni, F.; Serva, M.

    2003-08-01

    We investigate high frequency price dynamics in foreign exchange market using data from Reuters information system (the dataset has been provided to us by Olsen and Associates). In our analysis we show that a naïve approach to the definition of price (for example using the spot mid price) may lead to wrong conclusions on price behavior as for example the presence of short term correlations for returns. For this purpose we introduce an algorithm which only uses the non arbitrage principle to estimate real prices from the spot ones. The new definition leads to returns which are not affected by spurious correlations. Furthermore, any apparent information (defined by using Shannon entropy) contained in the data disappears.

  11. Market Depth and Price Dynamics:

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerhoff, Frank H.

    This note explores the consequences of nonlinear price impact functions on price dynamics within the chartist-fundamentalist framework. Price impact functions may be nonlinear with respect to trading volume. As indicated by recent empirical studies, a given transaction may cause a large (small) price change if market depth is low (high). Simulations reveal that such a relationship may create endogenous complex price fluctuations even if the trading behavior of chartists and fundamentalists is linear.

  12. Pricing and Marketing Online Information Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Sheila Anne Elizabeth

    1998-01-01

    Discusses the pricing of online information in the broader context of marketing. Highlights include changes in the marketing context and issues of value relating to price; other reviews of online pricing; trends affecting price, including public sector involvement and the Internet; promotional pricing; price discrimination; and price aggregation…

  13. Pricing and Marketing Online Information Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Sheila Anne Elizabeth

    1998-01-01

    Discusses the pricing of online information in the broader context of marketing. Highlights include changes in the marketing context and issues of value relating to price; other reviews of online pricing; trends affecting price, including public sector involvement and the Internet; promotional pricing; price discrimination; and price aggregation…

  14. The pricing of natural gas in US markets

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, S.P.A.; Yucel, M.K. )

    1993-01-01

    Our econometric evidence indicates that changes in natural gas prices are unequal in the long run. Nonetheless, all downstream prices change by at least as much as the average well-head price. Statistically, residential and commercial prices change as much as the city gate price. In the face of persistent shocks, however, market institutions and market dynamics can lead to lengthy periods in which the residential and commercial prices of natural gas adjust less than the wellhead or city gate prices. Electrical and industrial users of natural gas rely heavily on spot supplies and can switch fuels easily. Their ability to switch fuels may be related to the development of a spot market to serve them. Reliance on the spot market may explain why these end users have seen a greater reduction in natural gas prices than have the LDCs over the past seven years. The ability to switch fuels may account for electrical and industrial prices being the source of shocks in their relationships with the wellhead price. It also may explain why prices in these end-sue markets are quick to adjust. Commercial and residential customers cannot switch fuels easily and rely heavily on LDCs for their natural gas. The inability of these end users to switch fuels probably contributes to the reluctance of LDCs to purchase spot supplies of gas. Reliance on contract supplies may explain why the city gate price has not declined as much as electrical and industrial prices of natural gas over the past seven years. Furthermore, the LDCs administer prices in the commercial and residential markets under state regulation.

  15. Option price and market instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  16. Alaska softwood market price arbitrage.

    Treesearch

    James A. Stevens; David J. Brooks

    2003-01-01

    This study formally tests the hypothesis that markets for Alaska lumber and logs are integrated with those of similar products from the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Canada. The prices from these three supply regions are tested in a common demand market (Japan). Cointegration tests are run on paired log and lumber data. Our results support the conclusion that western...

  17. A market price for organs?

    PubMed

    Thomas, Rick

    2013-01-01

    Has not the time fully come to lift the prohibition on a regulated market in organs for transplantation? Is there a price for such a market that would be too high to pay? The author revisits the cases for and against organ markets in the light of cultural shifts in society and asks whether the traditional insistence on altruism represents a hindrance to much needed developments or a safeguard for much valued public goods.

  18. Time series analysis and long range correlations of Nordic spot electricity market data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erzgräber, Hartmut; Strozzi, Fernanda; Zaldívar, José-Manuel; Touchette, Hugo; Gutiérrez, Eugénio; Arrowsmith, David K.

    2008-11-01

    The electricity system price of the Nord Pool spot market is analysed. Different time scale analysis tools are assessed with focus on the Hurst exponent and long range correlations. Daily and weekly periodicities of the spot market are identified. Even though space time separation plots suggest more stationary behaviour than other financial time series, we find large fluctuations of the spot price market which suggest time-dependent scaling parameters.

  19. Microstructure and Execution Strategies in the Global Spot FX Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Anatoly B.

    Modern global inter-bank spot foreign exchange is essentially a limit-order market. Execution strategies in such a market may differ from those in markets that permit market orders. Here we describe microstructure and dynamics of the EBS market (EBS being an ICAP company is the leading institutional spot FX electronic brokerage). In order to illustrate specifics of the limit-order market, we discuss two problems. First, we describe our simulations of maker loss in case when the EUR/USD maker order is pegged to the market best price. We show that the expected maker loss is lower than the typical bid/offer spread. Second, we discuss the problem of optimal slicing of large orders for minimizing execution costs. We start with analysis of the expected execution times for the EUR/USD orders submitted at varying market depth. Then we introduce a loss function that accounts for the market volatility risk and the order's P/L in respect to the market best price. This loss function can be optimized for given risk aversion. Finally, we apply this approach to slicing large limit orders.

  20. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  1. Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

    The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

  2. 78 FR 70080 - Market Dominant Price Adjustment

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-22

    ... Market Dominant Price Adjustment AGENCY: Postal Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The... market dominant products. The adjustments are scheduled to take effect January 26, 2014. This notice.... Ordering Paragraphs I. Overview A. Index-Based Price Changes for Market Dominant Classes of Mail On...

  3. Distributions of Nodal Prices in PJM Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunio, Matsumoto; Yoshio, Ichida; Michiko, Makino; Hiroaki, Tanaka

    As the deregulation of electric business proceeds, it is important to analyze the distributions of prices in the power market. In this paper, we analyze the nodal prices of the PJM market, which is representative of power markets in the US. First, we verify Weibull’s property of the distribution of nodal prices. Then we verify Poisson’s property of the interval of loss process.

  4. Time Series Analysis of JEPX Spot Price with the Box-Jenkins Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishikawa, Hiroshi

    Following the examples of other countries, in April 2005 Japan launched wholesale electric power exchange operations as a primary item of system reform in line with electric liberalization. Only two years have passed since the initiation of these operations. However, in the summer of 2005, the surge in market prices was evident, which suggested that certain measures should be taken to confront potential market risks. Establishing a useful system for forecasting market prices through the modeling of price fluctuations in the wholesale electric market became essential. Currently, various price models are being proposed. Taking both the limited amount of data and the model's purpose into consideration, this study adopted the univariate time series model. We conducted a time series analysis on the open price indexes in the JEPX spot market with the Box-Jenkins method. Since a seven-day cycle can be observed in the data, we adopted the seasonal ARIMA model. In accordance with the procedures of the Box-Jenkins method, we determined the degree of the model's polynomial using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of the data and estimated the parameters of the model with the maximum likelihood method. We conducted a forecast on next day JEPX spot market prices with this time series model and examined its validity and utility as a forecasting tool. Price forecasts made with this model require only a small amount of data and will save substantial analysis work. Consequently, this method is expected to be widely used by market participants as the reference data for their bid pricing.

  5. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  6. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent; ...

    2016-10-10

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly,more » our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.« less

  7. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent; Hytowitz, Robin Broder

    2016-10-10

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly, our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.

  8. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent; Hytowitz, Robin Broder

    2016-10-10

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly, our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.

  9. An analysis of electricity price behavior when the market in California was dysfunctional

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Yoo-Soo

    The electricity market in California worked well for the first two years after restructuring, but in the summer of 2000 there were frequent high price spikes and then persistently high prices during the winter and the spring of 2001. This research develops econometric models to explain the behavior of the spot and forward prices for electricity and the relationship between them when the market in California was dysfunctional. The first results demonstrate that the high spot prices in the day-ahead market during the summer of 2000 were caused by changes in the bid behavior of buyers as well as by the offer behavior of sellers. After the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) declared that these high spot prices were "unjust and unreasonable", the FERC approved the payment of refunds to customers in California but not in other areas within the Western Inter-Connection (WECC). However, the results of a Vector Auto-Regressive model (VAR) show that the high spot prices in California were transferred immediately to other states in the WECC and the spot prices at different trading hubs belong to a single market. After the intervention by FERC in December 2000, spot prices and forward prices of electricity were unusually high. Estimated distributed lag models, using both monthly and daily data, show that there were strong positive relationships between the price shocks for electricity and natural gas in the spot markets and the forward prices for electricity. Risk premiums in the forward prices for electricity were estimated and the results show that the price shocks for electricity after FERC's intervention were the primary cause of the high forward prices. The main conclusions for regulatory policy are (1) it is virtually impossible to contain the effects of a dysfunctional electricity market to a single region because other regions are linked through the electrical grid, and (2) it is essential to intervene immediately and effectively when the spot prices have been

  10. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  11. The volatility of stock market prices.

    PubMed

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-02

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

  12. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.93 Bona fide spot markets. The following markets have been determined, after investigation, and are hereby...

  13. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.93 Bona fide spot markets. The following markets have been determined, after investigation, and are hereby...

  14. Insurance pricing in small size markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darooneh, Amir H.

    2007-07-01

    In analogy with standard derivation of Tsallis factor in non extensive statistical mechanics, we find the wealth distribution for an economic agent in a conservative exchange market. Tsallis entropic index distinguish between two different regimes, the large and small size market. The Pareto like wealth distribution is obtained in the case of small size market. We consider the insurance market as an example of conservative exchange market and suggest a new method for insurance pricing based on the wealth distribution in the market. We generalize the Esscher transform for the insurance pricing and simulate a real case of the car insurance. The results show the initial wealth of an insurer company in a small size market should be greater than a threshold value.

  15. Insurer Market Power Lowers Prices In Numerous Concentrated Provider Markets.

    PubMed

    Scheffler, Richard M; Arnold, Daniel R

    2017-09-01

    Using prices of hospital admissions and visits to five types of physicians, we analyzed how provider and insurer market concentration-as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)-interact and are correlated with prices. We found evidence that in the range of the Department of Justice's and Federal Trade Commission's definition of a moderately concentrated market (HHI of 1,500-2,500), insurers have the bargaining power to reduce provider prices in highly concentrated provider markets. In particular, hospital admission prices were 5 percent lower and cardiologist, radiologist, and hematologist/oncologist visit prices were 4 percent, 7 percent, and 19 percent lower, respectively, in markets with high provider concentration and insurer HHI above 2,000, compared to such markets with insurer HHI below 2,000. We did not find evidence that high insurer concentration reduced visit prices for primary care physicians or orthopedists, however. The policy dilemma that arises from our findings is that there are no insurer market mechanisms that will pass a portion of these price reductions on to consumers in the form of lower premiums. Large purchasers of health insurance such as state and federal governments, as well as the use of regulatory approaches, could provide a solution. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  16. Price dynamics in political prediction markets.

    PubMed

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A; Amaral, Luís A Nunes

    2009-01-20

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election "winner-takes-all" markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series.

  17. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  18. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a producer...

  19. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Net market price. 1220.115 Section 1220.115... CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term net market price means— (a) except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the sales price, or...

  20. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Net market price. 1220.115 Section 1220.115... CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term net market price means— (a) except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the sales price, or...

  1. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a...

  2. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a...

  3. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a...

  4. Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Koichiro

    This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

  5. Prices dip along with volume. [Uranium market overview - July 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The summer doldrums took hold in July, with only eight deals taking place, four on the spot concentrates market, two in conversion and two in enrichment. Spot concentrates volume dropped by 23% to nearly 1.2 million lbs U308 equivalent, resulting in slight declines in NUKEM's restricted and unrestricted price ranges. There were four deals on the spot market in July, totaling nearly 1.2 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. One of the buyers, a US utility, bought low-enriched uranium containing up to 440,000 lbs equivalent. Two of the buyers, a European and a US utility, purchased nearly 580,000 lbs of concentrates, with most going to the European utility. And another US utility bought UF6 containing 149,000 lbs equivalent. As for new demand, four buyers - including the European and US utilities that bought concentrates, as well as an East European utility and a non-US producer - entered the market during the month seeking 1.4 million lbs equivalent. The latter two buyers, along with another European utility and another US utility, are now weighing offers for more than 2.2 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. Looking ahead, we anticipate that as many as 17 buyers may enter the market for nearly 5 million lbs equivalent.

  6. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  7. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market price...

  8. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market price...

  9. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market price...

  10. Crowdsourcing Black Market Prices For Prescription Opioids

    PubMed Central

    Freifeld, Clark; Brownstein, John S; Menone, Christopher Mark; Surratt, Hilary L; Poppish, Luke; Green, Jody L; Lavonas, Eric J; Dart, Richard C

    2013-01-01

    Background Prescription opioid diversion and abuse are major public health issues in the United States and internationally. Street prices of diverted prescription opioids can provide an indicator of drug availability, demand, and abuse potential, but these data can be difficult to collect. Crowdsourcing is a rapid and cost-effective way to gather information about sales transactions. We sought to determine whether crowdsourcing can provide accurate measurements of the street price of diverted prescription opioid medications. Objective To assess the possibility of crowdsourcing black market drug price data by cross-validation with law enforcement officer reports. Methods Using a crowdsourcing research website (StreetRx), we solicited data about the price that site visitors paid for diverted prescription opioid analgesics during the first half of 2012. These results were compared with a survey of law enforcement officers in the Researched Abuse, Diversion, and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS) System, and actual transaction prices on a “dark Internet” marketplace (Silk Road). Geometric means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for comparing prices per milligram of drug in US dollars. In a secondary analysis, we compared prices per milligram of morphine equivalent using standard equianalgesic dosing conversions. Results A total of 954 price reports were obtained from crowdsourcing, 737 from law enforcement, and 147 from the online marketplace. Correlations between the 3 data sources were highly linear, with Spearman rho of 0.93 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and law enforcement, and 0.98 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and online marketplace. On StreetRx, the mean prices per milligram were US$3.29 hydromorphone, US$2.13 buprenorphine, US$1.57 oxymorphone, US$0.97 oxycodone, US$0.96 methadone, US$0.81 hydrocodone, US$0.52 morphine, and US$0.05 tramadol. The only significant difference between data sources was morphine, with a Drug Diversion price of US

  11. Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a new method called asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis, which is an extension of asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) and can assess the asymmetry correlation properties of series with a variable scale range. We investigate the asymmetric correlations in California 1999-2000 power market after filtering some periodic trends by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our findings show the coexistence of symmetric and asymmetric correlations in the price series of 1999 and strong asymmetric correlations in 2000. What is more, we detect subtle correlation properties of the upward and downward price series for most larger scale intervals in 2000. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of Δα(s) (asymmetry) and | Δα(s) | (absolute asymmetry) are more significant in 2000 than that in 1999 for larger scale intervals, and they have similar characteristics for smaller scale intervals. We conclude that the strong asymmetry property and different correlation properties of upward and downward price series for larger scale intervals in 2000 have important implications on the collapse of California power market, and our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms of power price.

  12. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications ofprice-elastic demand

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris

    2004-07-08

    Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulated electricity industries share one common feature: the absence of any significant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, electricity industries continue to charge most consumers an average cost based on regulated retail tariff from the era of vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are forced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in open markets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who are sometimes forbidden by regulators from signing hedging contracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time (or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price of electricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumption in response to price signals. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic, and electricity generation resources can be stretched to the point where system stability is threatened. This, then, facilitates many other problems associated with electricity markets, such as market power and price volatility. Indeed, economic theory suggests that even modestly price-responsive demand can remove the stress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To test this theory, we use actual generator bid data from the New York control area to construct supply stacks, and intersect them with demand curves of various slopes to approximate different levels of demand elasticity. We then estimate the potential impact of real-time pricing on the equilibrium spot price and quantity. These results indicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a more price-elastic demand. Such analysis can provide policymakers with a measure of how effective price-elastic demand can potentially reduce prices and maintain consumption within the capability of generation resources.

  13. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  14. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  15. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  16. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  17. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, which...

  18. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, which...

  19. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List. The...

  20. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List. The...

  1. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Fair market price. 51-2... FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on...

  2. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Fair market price. 51-2... FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on...

  3. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2012-07-01 2009-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List....

  4. Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Mei; Wang, Yaqi; Gao, Cuixia

    2016-11-01

    Fluctuations in prices of natural gas significantly affect global economy. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points and its influencing cycle on the subsequent price series is of great significance. Global natural gas trade concentrates on three regional markets: the North American market, the European market and the Asia-Pacific market, with North America having the most developed natural gas financial market. In addition, perfect legal supervision and coordinated regulations make the North American market more open and more competitive. This paper focuses on the North American natural gas market specifically. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price time series is converted to a visibility graph network which provides a new direction for macro analysis of time series, and several indicators are investigated: degree and degree distribution, the average shortest path length and community structure. The internal mechanisms underlying price fluctuations are explored through the indicators. The results show that the natural gas prices visibility graph network (NGP-VGN) is of small-world and scale-free properties simultaneously. After random rearrangement of original price time series, the degree distribution of network becomes exponential distribution, different from the original ones. This means that, the original price time series is of long-range negative correlation fractal characteristic. In addition, nodes with large degree correspond to significant geopolitical or economic events. Communities correspond to time cycles in visibility graph network. The cycles of time series and the impact scope of hubs can be found by community structure partition.

  5. Cross-correlations between price and volume in Chinese gold markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Jiang, Wei; Ma, Guofeng

    2016-06-01

    We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlation behaviors between price and volume in Chinese gold spot and futures markets. Qualitatively, we find that the price and volume series are significantly cross-correlated using the cross-correlation test statistics Qcc(m) and the ρDCCA coefficients. Quantitatively, by employing the MF-DCCA analysis, we find that there is a power-law cross-correlation and significant multifractal features between price and volume in gold spot and futures markets. Furthermore, by comparing the multifractality of the original series to the shuffled and surrogated series, we find that, for the gold spot market, the main contribution of multifractality is fat-tail distribution; for the gold futures market, both long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions play important roles in the contribution of multifractality. Finally, by employing the method of rolling windows, we undertake further investigation into the time-varying features of the cross-correlations between price and volume. We find that for both spot and futures markets, the cross-correlations are anti-persistent in general. In the short term, the cross-correlation shows obvious fluctuations due to exogenous shocks while, in the long term, the relationship tends to be at a metastable level due to the dynamic mechanism.

  6. Marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies.

    PubMed

    Levaggi, Rosella; Orizio, Grazia; Domenighini, Serena; Bressanelli, Maura; Schulz, Peter J; Zani, Claudia; Caimi, Luigi; Gelatti, Umberto

    2009-10-01

    Internet and e-commerce have profoundly changed society, the economy, and the world of health care. The web offers opportunities to improve health, but it may also represent a big health hazard since it is a basically unregulated market with very low consumer protection. In this paper we analyze marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies (OPs). Our analysis shows that OPs use strategies that would be more suitable for a commodity market than for drugs. These strategies differentiate according to variety (brand or generic), quality, quantity, and target group. OPs are well aware that the vacuum in the legislation allows them to reach a target of consumers that pharmacies cannot normally reach, such as those who would like to use the drug without consulting a physician (or, even worse, against the physician's advice). In this case, they usually charge a higher price, reassure the users by minimizing on the side effects, and induce them to bulk purchase through sensible price discounts. This analysis suggests that the selling of drugs via the Internet can turn into a "public health risk", as has been pointed out by the US Food and Drug Administration.

  7. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    SciTech Connect

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  8. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market...

  9. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market...

  10. Permutation Min-Entropy and Statistical Complexity Analysis of Electricity Spot Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju; Li, Dan

    2015-10-01

    In this study, we investigate the subtle temporal dynamics of California 1999-2000 spot price series based on permutation min-entropy (PME) and complexity-entropy causality plane. The dynamical transitions of price series are captured and the temporal correlations of price series are also discriminated by the recently introduced PME. Moreover, utilizing the CECP, we provide a refined classification of the monthly price dynamics and obtain an insight into the stochastic nature of price series. The results uncover that the spot price signal presents diverse temporal correlations and exhibits a higher stochastic behavior during the periods of crisis.

  11. Measuring Prices in Health Care Markets Using Commercial Claims Data.

    PubMed

    Neprash, Hannah T; Wallace, Jacob; Chernew, Michael E; McWilliams, J Michael

    2015-12-01

    To compare methods of price measurement in health care markets. Truven Health Analytics MarketScan commercial claims. We constructed medical prices indices using three approaches: (1) a "sentinel" service approach based on a single common service in a specific clinical domain, (2) a market basket approach, and (3) a spending decomposition approach. We constructed indices at the Metropolitan Statistical Area level and estimated correlations between and within them. Price indices using a spending decomposition approach were strongly and positively correlated with indices constructed from broad market baskets of common services (r > 0.95). Prices of single common services exhibited weak to moderate correlations with each other and other measures. Market-level price measures that reflect broad sets of services are likely to rank markets similarly. Price indices relying on individual sentinel services may be more appropriate for examining specialty- or service-specific drivers of prices. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  12. Decomposing intraday dependence in currency markets: evidence from the AUD/USD spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Ellis, Craig A.; Hogan, Warren P.

    2005-07-01

    The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a time-varying range, or standard deviation, or both of these simultaneously, values for the range, standard deviation and local Hurst exponent are recorded and analyzed separately. To illustrate this approach, a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar provides evidence of the returns distribution across the 24-hour trading ‘day’, with time-varying dependence and volatility clearly aligning with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

  13. Sulfur's price collapse to force market changes

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-09-13

    Price drops for sulfur over the past 2 years of 50-66% at most major consuming locations are prompting a major industry restructuring, according to Fertecon, a U.K.-based research organization that follows worldwide sulfur production for the fertilizer industry. A recently completed Fertecon study of the cost of producing and marketing sulfur indicates that the attrition in worldwide sulfur-mining capacity has now mostly run its course. Moreover, the burden of balancing the market will fall firmly on major producers of sulfur in the sour-gas industry, especially Canada. The paper discusses supply and demand realities, regional analysis, the role of sour gas, and the outlook for the future.

  14. Time spans between price maxima and price minima in stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Yongjie; Li, Honggang

    2014-02-01

    We empirically investigate the distribution of time spans between price maxima and price minima in international stock markets, where a time span is defined as the time interval between a local price minimum and a local price maximum, and local price extrema are identified by a method introduced by Preis and Stanley (Preis et al. (2011), Preis (2011), Preis and Stanley (2011, 2010), Preis (2010), Preis and Stanley (2010), Stanley et al. (2010), Preis and Stanley (2009)). The empirical results show that both the tail distributions of time spans from local price maxima to local price minima and the tail distributions of time spans from local price minima to local price maxima yield an exponential distribution. In addition, price rise/fall asymmetry is observed by comparing the values of the exponents of the distribution curves. These results are robust across eight representative stock markets.

  15. [Competition and prices in the Mexican pharmaceutical market].

    PubMed

    Molina-Salazar, Raúl E; González-Marín, Eloy; Carbajal-de Nova, Carolina

    2008-01-01

    The forms of market competition define prices. The pharmaceutical market contains submarkets with different levels of competition; on the one hand are the innovating products with patents, and on the other, generic products with or without trade names. Innovating medicines generally have monopolistic prices, but when the patents expire prices drop because of competition from therapeutic alternatives. The trade name makes it easier to maintain monopolistic prices. In Mexico, medicine prices in the private market are high--according to aggregated estimates and prices for specific medicines--which reflect the limitations of pharmaceutical market competition and the power of the trade name. The public segment enjoys competitive prices using the WHO strategy for essential medicines on the basis of the Essential List.

  16. The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; MacDonald, James

    2008-01-01

    Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in…

  17. Marketing Theory Applied to Price Discrimination in Journals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talaga, James; Haley, Jean Walstrom

    1991-01-01

    Discussion of discriminatory pricing by journal publishers and its effects on libraries focuses on six prerequisites for successful discriminatory pricing that are based on marketing theory. Strategies to eliminate some of these prerequisites--and therefore eliminate discriminatory pricing--are suggested, including the need to change the attitudes…

  18. The Pricing of British Journals for the North American Market.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuttle, Marcia

    1986-01-01

    Presents an informal report of seminar entitled "Learned Journals: The Problem of Pricing and Buying Round," held in London on March 22, 1985, in attempt to answer charges of discriminatory pricing. Price differential of British scholarly journals, costs, marketing, and role of subscription agent are discussed. Seven sources are given.…

  19. The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; MacDonald, James

    2008-01-01

    Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in…

  20. Majority orienting model for the oscillation of market price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, H.; Itoh, Y.

    2004-01-01

    The present paper introduces a majority orienting model in which the dealers' behavior changes based on the influence of the price to show the oscillation of stock price in the stock market. We show the oscillation of the price for the model by applying the vanderPol equation which is a deterministic approximation of our model.

  1. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16...

  2. Private Colleges: Are They Pricing Themselves Out of the Market?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spies, Richard R.

    The question of whether private colleges are pricing themselves out of the market is considered. An analysis of the actual application patterns of a sample of high-ability students indicates that colleges and universities are not pricing themselves out of the market. Despite substantial increases in tuition and other fees over the last several…

  3. Price regulation and generic competition in the pharmaceutical market.

    PubMed

    Dalen, Dag Morten; Strøm, Steinar; Haabeth, Tonje

    2006-09-01

    In March 2003 the Norwegian government implemented yardstick-based price regulation schemes on a selection of drugs subjected to generic competition. The retail price cap, termed the "index price," on a drug (chemical substance) was set equal to the average of the three lowest producer prices on that drug, plus a fixed wholesale and retail margin. This is supposed to lower barriers of entry for generic drugs and to trigger price competition. Using monthly data over the period 1998-2004 for the six drugs (chemical entities) included in the index price system, we estimate a structural model enabling us to examine the impact of the reform on both demand and market power. Our results suggest that the index price helped to increase the market shares of generic drugs and succeeded in triggering price competition.

  4. A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

    2010-08-01

    We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

  5. Price competition in the Chinese pharmaceutical market.

    PubMed

    Wang, Y Richard

    2006-06-01

    We study price competition between high-quality global products and low-quality local products in a developing country, i.e., China, Nearly all previous studies on pharmaceutical price competition focused on developed countries with bioequivalent generics. In China, local generic products are not bioequivalent and are deemed of lower quality, while global products in the same class are considered similar in quality and better substitutes. We hypothesize that local generic competition drives down local product price but not global product price. In addition, we hypothesize that therapeutic competition among similar global products lowers global product price. Our empirical results support both hypotheses. Number of local generic competitors has a significantly negative effect on local product price but no effect on global product price, while number of global therapeutic competitors has a significantly negative effect on global product price. Policy changes that encourage bioequivalent local products and accelerate global product approvals will enhance price competition in China.

  6. Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging?

    PubMed Central

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers’ clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers’ preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking. PMID:24015219

  7. Why are product prices in online markets not converging?

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers' clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers' preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking.

  8. Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region.

    Treesearch

    Donald F. Flora; Wendy J. McGInnls

    1992-01-01

    Several recently emplaced and potential Northwest timber policies are causing considerable market turbulence. Estimated were price and volume changes induced by three supply-side policies (a state-log export embargo, forest replanning, and spotted owl reservations) and the demand slide of 1990-91. Impacts were gauged separately and together by using a four-sector model...

  9. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  10. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  11. Ramsey pricing and supply-side incentives in physician markets.

    PubMed

    Wedig, G J

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, I develop a theory of optimal prices using a relative value scale where there are fixed costs of medical practice. I consider a regulator constrained to set prices in excess of marginal cost, in markets where physicians can create demand at the margin. Under these conditions, basing prices on physician costs alone is shown to be suboptimal. Instead, prices should anticipate the behavior of physicians by setting profit margins highest for services least susceptible to demand creation. This is equivalent to a form of Ramsey pricing, used in this case to minimize the deadweight loss of oversupply.

  12. Should Consumers Be Priced Out of Pollution-Permit Markets?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Stefani C.; Yates, Andrew J.

    2003-01-01

    Presents a simple diagrammatic exposition of a pollution-permit market in which firms that generate pollution and consumers who are harmed by pollution are allowed to purchase permits at a single market price. Illustrates that the market equilibrium is efficient only if the endowment of permits is equal to the efficient level of pollution. (JEH)

  13. Should Consumers Be Priced Out of Pollution-Permit Markets?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Stefani C.; Yates, Andrew J.

    2003-01-01

    Presents a simple diagrammatic exposition of a pollution-permit market in which firms that generate pollution and consumers who are harmed by pollution are allowed to purchase permits at a single market price. Illustrates that the market equilibrium is efficient only if the endowment of permits is equal to the efficient level of pollution. (JEH)

  14. Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

    In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

  15. Distribution of asset price movement and market potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dong Han; Marmi, Stefano

    2015-07-01

    In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by introducing a market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when market reversion (i.e. contrarian investors) is dominant. On the other hand, if there are more trend followers, flat and logarithmic potentials appear. By using the cyclically adjusted price-to-earning ratio, which is a common valuation tool, we empirically investigate the market data. By studying long term data we observe the historical change of the market potential of the US stock market. Recent US data show that the market potential looks more like a trend-following potential. Next, we compare the market potentials for 12 different countries. Though some countries have similar market potentials, there are specific examples like Japan which exhibits a very flat potential.

  16. Fish market prices drive overfishing of the 'big ones'.

    PubMed

    Tsikliras, Athanassios C; Polymeros, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing.

  17. Uranium prices continue their upward climb

    SciTech Connect

    1996-03-01

    This article is the uranium market overview for the month of February 1996. Prices were up in the spot market for U3O8, while conversion market prices and SWU prices remained steady. There were six trades in the U3O8 spot market, ten deals in the long-term U3O8 market, three deals in the conversion market, and a single deal in the SWU market.

  18. Tiered co-payments, pricing, and demand in reference price markets for pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Herr, Annika; Suppliet, Moritz

    2017-09-15

    Health insurance companies curb price-insensitive behavior and the moral hazard of insureds by means of cost-sharing, such as tiered co-payments or reference pricing in drug markets. This paper evaluates the effect of price limits - below which drugs are exempt from co-payments - on prices and on demand. First, using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the new policy decreases prices by 5 percent for generics and increases prices by 4 percent for brand-name drugs in the German reference price market. Second, estimating a nested-logit demand model, we show that consumers appreciate co-payment exempt drugs and calculate lower price elasticities for brand-name drugs than for generics. This explains the different price responses of brand-name and generic drugs and shows that price-related co-payment tiers are an effective tool to steer demand to low-priced drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Facing Price Risks in Internet-of-Services Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matros, Raimund; Streitberger, Werner; Koenig, Stefan; Eymann, Torsten

    Internet-of-Services markets allow companies to procure computational resources and application services externally and thus to save both internal capital expenditures and operational costs. Despite the advantages of this new paradigm only few work has been done in the field of risk management concerning Internet-of-Services markets. We simulate such a market using a Grid simulator. The results show that market participants are exposed to price risk. Based on our results we identify and assess technical failures which could lead to loss on service consumer's side. We also show that technical failures influence service prices which lead to volatile prices. Both, service provider and service consumer are exposed to this uncertainty and need a way to face it. Therefore we apply a financial option model to overcome price risk.

  20. A multilayer approach for price dynamics in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2017-02-01

    We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dynamics, by considering two assets with variable fundamental prices. Fat tails in the probability distributions of normalized returns are observed, together with other features of real financial markets.

  1. An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiangli; Cheng, Siwei; Wang, Shouyang; Hong, Yongmiao; Li, Yi

    2008-02-01

    This study employs a parametric approach based on TGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the VaR of the copper futures market and spot market in China. Considering the short selling mechanism in the futures market, the paper introduces two new notions: upside VaR and extreme upside risk spillover. And downside VaR and upside VaR are examined by using the above approach. Also, we use Kupiec’s [P.H. Kupiec, Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, Journal of Derivatives 3 (1995) 73-84] backtest to test the power of our approaches. In addition, we investigate information spillover effects between the futures market and the spot market by employing a linear Granger causality test, and Granger causality tests in mean, volatility and risk respectively. Moreover, we also investigate the relationship between the futures market and the spot market by using a test based on a kernel function. Empirical results indicate that there exist significant two-way spillovers between the futures market and the spot market, and the spillovers from the futures market to the spot market are much more striking.

  2. Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, Sriram

    After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

  3. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable price...

  4. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable price...

  5. Universal Behavior of Extreme Price Movements in Stock Markets

    PubMed Central

    Fuentes, Miguel A.; Gerig, Austin; Vicente, Javier

    2009-01-01

    Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evidence that a modification to the random model—adding a slow, but significant, fluctuation to the standard deviation of the process—accurately explains the probability of different-sized price changes, including the relative high frequency of extreme movements. Furthermore, we show that this process is similar across stocks so that their price fluctuations can be characterized by a single curve. Because the behavior of price fluctuations is rooted in the characteristics of volatility, we expect our results to bring increased interest to stochastic volatility models, and especially to those that can produce the properties of volatility reported here. PMID:20041178

  6. Basic Studies on Chaotic Characteristics of Electric Power Market Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takeuchi, Yuya; Miyauchi, Hajime; Kita, Toshihiro

    Recently, deregulation and reform of electric power utilities have been progressing in many parts of the world. In Japan, partial deregulation has been started from generation sector since 1995 and partial deregulation of retail sector is executed through twice law revisions. Through the deregulation, because electric power is traded in the market and its price is always fluctuated, it is important for the electric power business to analyze and predict the price. Although the price data of the electric power market is time series data, it is not always proper to analyze by the linear model such as ARMA because the price sometimes changes suddenly. Therefore, in this paper, we apply the methods of chaotic time series analysis, one of non-linear analysis methods, and investigate the chaotic characteristics of the system price of JEPX.

  7. Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?

    SciTech Connect

    1999-03-01

    This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.

  8. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  9. Entry, Pricing, and Product Design in an Initially Monopolized Market

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Steven J.; Murphy, Kevin M.; Topel, Robert H.

    2004-01-01

    We analyze entry, pricing, and product design in a model with differentiated products. Market equilibrium can be "separating," with multiple sellers and a sorting of heterogeneous consumers across goods, or "exclusionary," with one seller serving all customer types. Entry into an initially monopolized market can occur because of cost reductions or…

  10. Entry, Pricing, and Product Design in an Initially Monopolized Market

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Steven J.; Murphy, Kevin M.; Topel, Robert H.

    2004-01-01

    We analyze entry, pricing, and product design in a model with differentiated products. Market equilibrium can be "separating," with multiple sellers and a sorting of heterogeneous consumers across goods, or "exclusionary," with one seller serving all customer types. Entry into an initially monopolized market can occur because of cost reductions or…

  11. Market place movements

    SciTech Connect

    1996-10-01

    Historical financial data is provided for the uranium market in graphical and tabular form. Data include uranium spot price range, spot conversion price range, and seperative work units price range. Additional spot market information provided is natural uranium by buyers and sellers. Medium- and long-term data includes average natural uranium prices, and natural uranium market by buyers and sellers. Information on US contracted supply and demand and uranium production in Australia, Canada, and the US is given.

  12. Price and Volume Dynamics in the Japanese Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamashita, Hirofumi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    We investigated data of stocks listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange. Although the data we used contains limited number of limit orders around the best prices in the ask and bid sides, we could confirm some issues of the layered structure which is similar to that in FX markets. We show time series of a market impact index, which is made using high correlation between dynamics of price and volume of limit orders. In the last section, we remark differences in our observations comparing with the FX market case.

  13. An analysis of strategic price setting in retail gasoline markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaureguiberry, Florencia

    This dissertation studies price-setting behavior in the retail gasoline industry. The main questions addressed are: How important is a retail station's brand and proximity to competitors when retail stations set price? How do retailers adjust their pricing when they cater to consumers who are less aware of competing options or have less discretion over where they purchase gasoline? These questions are explored in two separate analyses using a unique datasets containing retail pricing behavior of stations in California and in 24 different metropolitan areas. The evidence suggests that brand and location generate local market power for gasoline stations. After controlling for market and station characteristics, the analysis finds a spread of 11 cents per gallon between the highest and the lowest priced retail gasoline brands. The analysis also indicates that when the nearest competitor is located over 2 miles away as opposed to next door, consumers will pay an additional 1 cent per gallon of gasoline. In order to quantify the significance of local market power, data for stations located near major airport rental car locations are utilized. The presumption here is that rental car users are less aware or less sensitive to fueling options near the rental car return location and are to some extent "captured consumers". Retailers located near rental car locations have incentives to adjust their pricing strategies to exploit this. The analysis of pricing near rental car locations indicates that retailers charge prices that are 4 cent per gallon higher than other stations in the same metropolitan area. This analysis is of interest to regulators who are concerned with issues of consolidation, market power, and pricing in the retail gasoline industry. This dissertation concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the empirical analysis.

  14. Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Cheong, Chongcheul; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2013-04-01

    This study provides empirical evidence of the relationship between spot and futures markets in Korea. In particular, the study focuses on the volatility spillover relationship between spot and futures markets by using three high-frequency (10 min, 30 min, and 1 h time-scales) intraday data sets of KOSPI 200 spot and futures contracts. The results indicate a strong bi-directional causal relationship between futures and spot markets, suggesting that return volatility in the spot market can influence that in the futures market and vice versa. Thus, the results indicate that new information is reflected in futures and spot markets simultaneously. This bi-directional causal relationship provides market participants with important guidance on understanding the intraday information transmission between the two markets. Thus, on a given trading day, there may be sudden and sharp increases or decreases in return volatility in the Korean stock market as a result of positive feedback and synchronization of spot and futures markets.

  15. Measurement and pricing of risk in insurance markets.

    PubMed

    Tsanakas, Andreas; Desli, Evangelia

    2005-12-01

    The theory and practice of risk measurement provides a point of intersection between risk management, economic theories of choice under risk, financial economics, and actuarial pricing theory. This article provides a review of these interrelationships, from the perspective of an insurance company seeking to price the risks that it underwrites. We examine three distinct approaches to insurance risk pricing, all being contingent on the concept of risk measures. Risk measures can be interpreted as representations of risk orderings, as well as absolute (monetary) quantifiers of risk. The first approach can be called an "axiomatic" one, whereby the price for risks is calculated according to a functional determined by a set of desirable properties. The price of a risk is directly interpreted as a risk measure and may be induced by an economic theory of price under risk. The second approach consists in contextualizing the considerations of the risk bearer by embedding them in the market where risks are traded. Prices are calculated by equilibrium arguments, where each economic agent's optimization problem follows from the minimization of a risk measure. Finally, in the third approach, weaknesses of the equilibrium approach are addressed by invoking alternative valuation techniques, the leading paradigm among which is arbitrage pricing. Such models move the focus from individual decision takers to abstract market price systems and are thus more parsimonious in the amount of information that they require. In this context, risk measures, instead of characterizing individual agents, are used for determining the set of price systems that would be viable in a market.

  16. Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

    2007-10-01

    To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack of distinct sector identity in emerging markets is explicitly shown by reconstructing the network of mutually interacting stocks. Spectral analysis of C for NSE reveals that, the few largest eigenvalues deviate from the bulk of the spectrum predicted by random matrix theory, but they are far fewer in number compared to, e.g., NYSE. We show this to be due to the relative weakness of intrasector interactions between stocks, compared to the market mode, by modeling stock price dynamics with a two-factor model. Our results suggest that the emergence of an internal structure comprising multiple groups of strongly coupled components is a signature of market development.

  17. Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market.

    PubMed

    Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

    2007-10-01

    To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack of distinct sector identity in emerging markets is explicitly shown by reconstructing the network of mutually interacting stocks. Spectral analysis of C for NSE reveals that, the few largest eigenvalues deviate from the bulk of the spectrum predicted by random matrix theory, but they are far fewer in number compared to, e.g., NYSE. We show this to be due to the relative weakness of intrasector interactions between stocks, compared to the market mode, by modeling stock price dynamics with a two-factor model. Our results suggest that the emergence of an internal structure comprising multiple groups of strongly coupled components is a signature of market development.

  18. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  19. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  20. Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, B.; Miller, M.

    2009-09-01

    In practice, it is difficult to determine the optimal amount to spend on marketing and administering a green pricing program. Budgets for marketing and administration of green pricing programs are a function of several factors: the region of the country; the size of the utility service area; the customer base and media markets encompassed within that service area; the point or stage in the lifespan of the program; and certainly, not least, the utility's commitment to and goals for the program. All of these factors vary significantly among programs. This report presents data on programs that have funded both marketing and program administration. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gathers the data annually from utility green pricing program managers. Programs reporting data to NREL spent a median of 18.8% of program revenues on marketing their programs in 2008 and 16.6% in 2007. The smallest utilities (those with less than 25,000 in their eligible customer base) spent 49% of revenues on marketing, significantly more than the overall median. This report addresses the role of renewable energy credit (REC) marketers and start-up costs--and the role of marketing, generally, in achieving program objectives, including expansion of renewable energy.

  1. A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

    DOE PAGES

    Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai; ...

    2017-03-16

    We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

  2. 78 FR 25181 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-30

    ... Service 7 CFR Part 27 RIN 0581-AD26 Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY... amending the regulation that specifies which states compose bona fide cotton spot markets in order to assure consistency with the revised Cotton Research and Promotion Act. Updated bona fide spot market...

  3. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... of a basis grade contract: (a) For cotton delivered in settlement of any No. 2 contract on the New... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94....94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets...

  4. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... of a basis grade contract: (a) For cotton delivered in settlement of any No. 2 contract on the New... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94....94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets...

  5. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... of a basis grade contract: (a) For cotton delivered in settlement of any No. 2 contract on the New... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94....94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets...

  6. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... of a basis grade contract: (a) For cotton delivered in settlement of any No. 2 contract on the... 7 Agriculture 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94....94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets...

  7. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... of a basis grade contract: (a) For cotton delivered in settlement of any No. 2 contract on the New... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94....94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets...

  8. Price and distribution policies in healthcare marketing in Romania.

    PubMed

    Coculescu, B I; Coculescu, E C; Purcărea, V L

    2017-01-01

    There is a principle similar to the theory of exchange in the marketing of health services, meaning that what is delivered to the target market (i.e. the beneficiaries) must be equal to or greater than what is to be received (i.e. the price). The price level in the marketing mix is influenced by how the consumer perceives the respective medical service and is quantified in the profit and the turnover of the organization respectively. The cost of the medical act as a whole is the value of all the tangible and intangible variables associated with it, and the planning, distribution and promotion of the product must be taken into account in the price setting.

  9. Price and distribution policies in healthcare marketing in Romania

    PubMed Central

    Coculescu, BI; Coculescu, EC; Purcărea, VL

    2017-01-01

    There is a principle similar to the theory of exchange in the marketing of health services, meaning that what is delivered to the target market (i.e. the beneficiaries) must be equal to or greater than what is to be received (i.e. the price). The price level in the marketing mix is influenced by how the consumer perceives the respective medical service and is quantified in the profit and the turnover of the organization respectively. The cost of the medical act as a whole is the value of all the tangible and intangible variables associated with it, and the planning, distribution and promotion of the product must be taken into account in the price setting. PMID:28616091

  10. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable...

  11. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable...

  12. Measuring hospital input price increases: The rebased hospital market basket

    PubMed Central

    Freeland, Mark S.; Chulis, George S.; Brown, Aaron P.; Skellan, David; Maple, Brenda T.; Singer, Naphtale; Lemieux, Jeffrey; Arnett, Ross H.

    1991-01-01

    The input prices indexes used in part to set payment rates for Medicare inpatient hospital services in both prospective payment system (PPS) and PPS-excluded hospitals were rebased from 1982 to 1987 beginning with payments for fiscal year 1991. In this article, the issues and evidence used to determine the composition of the revised hospital input price indexes are discussed. One issue is the need for a separate market basket for PPS-excluded hospitals. Also, the payment implications of using hospital-industry versus economywide measures of wage rates as price proxies for the growth in hospital wage rates are addressed. PMID:10113610

  13. Spectral method for pricing options in illiquid markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pindza, Edson; Patidar, Kailash C.

    2012-09-01

    We present a robust numerical method to solve a problem of pricing options in illiquid markets. The governing equation is described by a nonlinear Black-Scholes partial differential equation (BS-PDE) of the reaction-diffusion-advection type. To discretise this BS-PDE numerically, we use a spectral method in the asset (spatial) direction and couple it with a fifth order RADAU method for the discretisation in the time direction. Numerical experiments illustrate that our approach is very efficient for pricing financial options in illiquid markets.

  14. Self-organization of price fluctuation distribution in evolving markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, R. K.; Sinha, S.

    2007-03-01

    Financial markets can be seen as complex systems in non-equilibrium steady state, one of whose most important properties is the distribution of price fluctuations. Recently, there have been assertions that this distribution is qualitatively different in emerging markets as compared to developed markets. Here we analyse both high-frequency tick-by-tick as well as daily closing price data to show that the price fluctuations in the Indian stock market, one of the largest emerging markets, have a distribution that is identical to that observed for developed markets (e.g., NYSE). In particular, the cumulative distribution has a long tail described by a power law with an exponent α ap 3. Also, we study the historical evolution of this distribution over the period of existence of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, which coincided with the rapid transformation of the Indian economy due to liberalization, and show that this power law tail has been present almost throughout. We conclude that the "inverse cubic law" is a truly universal feature of a financial market, independent of its stage of development or the condition of the underlying economy.

  15. Multifractal cross-correlation analysis in electricity spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju; Li, Dan

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the multiscale cross-correlations between electricity price and trading volume in Czech market based on a newly developed algorithm, called Multifractal Cross-Correlation Analysis (MFCCA). The new algorithm is a natural multifractal generalization of the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and is sensitive to cross-correlation structure and free from limitations of other algorithms. By considering the original sign of the cross-covariance, it allows us to properly quantify and detect the subtle characteristics of two simultaneous recorded time series. First, the multifractality and the long range anti-persistent auto-correlations of price return and trading volume variation are confirmed using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA). Furthermore, we show that there exist long-range anti-persistent cross-correlations between price return and trading volume variation by MFCCA. And we also identify that the cross-correlations disappear on the level of relative small fluctuations. In order to obtain deeper insight into the dynamics of the electricity market, we analyze the relation between generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent λq. We find that the difference between the generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent is significantly different for smaller fluctuation, which indicates that the multifractal character of cross-correlations resembles more each other for electricity price and trading volume on the level of large fluctuations and weakens for the smaller ones.

  16. Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

    SciTech Connect

    Fujita, K. Sydny

    2015-08-04

    This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

  17. Effects of reference pricing in pharmaceutical markets: a review.

    PubMed

    Galizzi, Matteo Maria; Ghislandi, Simone; Miraldo, Marisa

    2011-01-01

    This work aims to provide a systematic and updated survey of original scientific studies on the effect of the introduction of reference pricing (RP) policies in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We searched PubMed, EconLit and Web of Knowledge for articles on RP. We reviewed studies that met the inclusion criteria established in the search strategy. From a total of 468 references, we selected the 35 that met all of the inclusion criteria. Some common themes emerged in the literature. The first was that RP was generally associated with a decrease in the prices of the drugs subject to the policy. In particular, price drops seem to have been experienced in virtually every country that implemented a generic RP (GRP) policy. A GRP policy applies only to products with expired patents and generic competition, and clusters drugs according to chemical equivalence (same form and active compound). More significant price decreases were observed in the sub-markets in which drugs were already facing generic competition prior to RP. Price drops varied widely according to the amount of generic competition and industrial strategies: brand-named drugs originally priced above RP values decreased their prices to a greater extent. A second common theme was that both therapeutic RP (TRP) and GRP have been associated with significant and consistent savings in the first years of application. A third general result is that generic market shares significantly increased whenever the firms producing brand-named drugs did not adopt one of the following strategies: lowering prices to RP values; launching new dosages and/or formulations; or marketing substitute drugs still under patent protection. Finally, concerning TRP, although more evidence is needed, studies based on a large number of patient-level observations showed no association between the RP policy and health outcomes.

  18. 77 FR 22282 - Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Determination of Equivalent Price Series

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-13

    ... Agricultural Marketing Service Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Determination of Equivalent Price Series AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Determination of equivalent price... products price series in the Dairy Products Sales report released by the Agricultural Marketing Service...

  19. Influence of Market Competition on Tetracycline Pricing and Impact of Price Increases on Clinician Prescribing Behavior.

    PubMed

    Barbieri, John S; Margolis, David J; Brod, Bruce A

    2017-08-22

    Oral tetracyclines are commonly used for acne and other conditions. Recent generic price increases threaten access to these medications. Using the OptumInsight™ Clinformatics™ DataMart, we retrospectively evaluated the underlying factors behind these price increases for oral tetracylines using the framework of a competitive market and evaluated the impact of these price increases on prescribing practices. Between 2011 and 2013, the mean cost of doxycycline hyclate prescriptions increased from $7.16 to $139.89 and the mean out-of-pocket cost increased by $9.69. A comparable cost increase was not observed for doxycycline monohydrate or minocycline. There was no significant association between the cost of doxycycline hyclate and market concentration as assessed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (β=0.030, 95% CI -0.019 to 0.079, p=0.213) and the market was highly concentrated throughout the study period. The percentage of prescriptions for doxycycline hyclate decreased by 1.9% from 2011 to 2013. This dramatic increase in the cost of doxycycline hyclate is not easily explained using the framework of a competitive market, suggesting non-competitive market forces may be responsible. In addition, clinicians have not altered their prescribing behavior in response to this price increase, suggesting that clinician or pharmacy level interventions could potentially increase utilization of less costly substitutes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, Julia

    2008-10-01

    This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

  1. Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

    SciTech Connect

    Simmons, M.R.

    1997-02-01

    The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry`s practice of maintaining crude stocks at ``Just in time`` inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers` information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996.

  2. Creating successful price and placement strategies for social marketing.

    PubMed

    Thackeray, Rosemary; Brown, Kelli R McCormack

    2010-03-01

    A successful marketing strategy includes the design of a marketing mix with the right combination of products, offered at the right price, in the right place, and then promoted in such a way that makes it easy and rewarding for the individual to change his or her behavior. A price is incurred in exchange for receiving a bundle of benefits. The social marketer can use various pricing tactics to make the desired behavior appear to have fewer costs and more benefits while making the undesired behavior to have less benefit and greater cost. Place is where and when the target population will perform the desired behavior, purchase or obtain a tangible product, and/or receive associated services. Involving partners in the placement strategy can make products more accessible and increase opportunities for people to perform a behavior. Strategies for making the product available at a desirable price and in places that are convenient are integral to the overall social marketing plan to facilitate behavior change.

  3. The Effects of Market Structure on Television News Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wirth, Michael O.; Wollert, James A.

    Multiple regression techniques were used to examine the business side of local television news operations for November 1978. Research questions examined the effect of several variables on local television news prices (advertising rates), including type of ownership, network affiliation/signal type, market size, cable network penetration, market…

  4. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... Marketing Service, crop insurance, and NAP. (b) NAMP may be adjusted by the FSA State committee, in... respect to a crop for which an eligible participant on a farm receives assistance under NAP, the NAMP will not exceed the price of the crop established under NAP. (d) To the extent practicable, the NAMP...

  5. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Marketing Service, crop insurance, and NAP. (b) NAMP may be adjusted by the FSA State committee, in... respect to a crop for which an eligible participant on a farm receives assistance under NAP, the NAMP will not exceed the price of the crop established under NAP. (d) To the extent practicable, the NAMP...

  6. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Marketing Service, crop insurance, and NAP. (b) NAMP may be adjusted by the FSA State committee, in... respect to a crop for which an eligible participant on a farm receives assistance under NAP, the NAMP will not exceed the price of the crop established under NAP. (d) To the extent practicable, the NAMP...

  7. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  8. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  9. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  10. Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

    When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation

  11. The increasing necessity for market-based pharmaceutical prices.

    PubMed

    Calfee, J E

    2000-01-01

    In most markets, research and development are driven by expected prices, and those prices are determined mainly by consumer willingness to pay for the potential benefits of new products. In the pharmaceutical market, however, the dominant role of government and tax-induced insurance has tended to create a wedge between expected prices and consumer willingness to pay to cure or prevent disease. This distorts investment decisions, tending to cause underinvestment. Recent developments have expanded this gap. The greatly enhanced efficiency of pharmaceutical research has permitted the development of products that provide long term prevention and quality-of-life improvements. While some of these new products can delay or obviate chronic conditions of old age, they do not necessarily reduce healthcare costs (at least not in the short or medium run). Most of the massive benefits of the new research streams are therefore pure consumer benefits, with little benefit for the acute care activities that are the core functions of European and American healthcare delivery or payment systems. These new products are very expensive, despite increased research efficiency, because that efficiency has permitted the industry to address difficult problems that had previously been impervious to solution. To serve consumers well, healthcare providers would have to increase expenditures and prices or taxes to cover these added pharmaceutical costs. But the new products are likely to be perceived mainly as cost increases. The effect is that healthcare entities will become less suited to serve as agents for consumers. One reason is that the most natural, reliable and widely used metrics for evaluating new drugs--healthcare savings and acute care improvements--will be increasingly irrelevant. The implication is that, to a much greater extent than in the past, only market-determined prices can provide adequate signals for future pharmaceutical research investment. The failure to use market

  12. Price Analysis of Railway Freight Transport under Marketing Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Ying; Fang, Xiaoping; Chen, Zhiya

    Regarding the problems in the reform of the railway tariff system and the pricing of the transport, by means of assaying the influence of the price elasticity on the artifice used for price, this article proposed multiple regressive model which analyzed price elasticity quantitatively. This model conclude multi-factors which influences on the price elasticity, such as the averagely railway freight charge, the averagely freight haulage of proximate supersede transportation mode, the GDP per capita in the point of origin, and a series of dummy variable which can reflect the features of some productive and consume demesne. It can calculate the price elasticity of different classes in different domains, and predict the freight traffic volume on different rate levels. It can calculate confidence-level, and evaluate the relevance of each parameter to get rid of irrelevant or little relevant variables. It supplied a good theoretical basis for directing the pricing of transport enterprises in market economic conditions, which is suitable for railway freight, passenger traffic and other transportation manner as well. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) software was used to calculate and analysis the example. This article realized the calculation by HYFX system(Ministry of Railways fund).

  13. North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach

    Treesearch

    Barry Goodwin; Matthew Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2011-01-01

    Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-à-vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time-varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important...

  14. Market dynamics and stock price volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, H.; Rosser, J. B., Jr.

    2004-06-01

    This paper presents a possible explanation for some of the empirical properties of asset returns within a heterogeneous-agents framework. The model turns out, even if we assume the input fundamental value follows an simple Gaussian distribution lacking both fat tails and volatility dependence, these features can show up in the time series of asset returns. In this model, the profit comparison and switching between heterogeneous play key roles, which build a connection between endogenous market and the emergence of stylized facts.

  15. Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place.

    PubMed

    Henriksen, Lisa

    2012-03-01

    Evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic and the advent of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have inspired more than half the countries in the world to ban some forms of tobacco marketing. This paper briefly describes the ways in which cigarette marketing is restricted and the tobacco industry's efforts to subvert restrictions. It reviews what is known about the impact of marketing regulations on smoking by adults and adolescents. It also addresses what little is known about the impact of marketing bans in relation to concurrent population-level interventions, such as price controls, anti-tobacco media campaigns and smoke-free laws. Point of sale is the least regulated channel and research is needed to address the immediate and long-term consequences of policies to ban retail advertising and pack displays. Comprehensive marketing restrictions require a global ban on all forms of promotion, elimination of packaging and price as marketing tools, and limitations on the quantity, type and location of tobacco retailers.

  16. Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place

    PubMed Central

    Henriksen, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic and the advent of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have inspired more than half the countries in the world to ban some forms of tobacco marketing. This paper briefly describes the ways in which cigarette marketing is restricted and the tobacco industry's efforts to subvert restrictions. It reviews what is known about the impact of marketing regulations on smoking by adults and adolescents. It also addresses what little is known about the impact of marketing bans in relation to concurrent population-level interventions, such as price controls, anti-tobacco media campaigns and smoke-free laws. Point of sale is the least regulated channel and research is needed to address the immediate and long-term consequences of policies to ban retail advertising and pack displays. Comprehensive marketing restrictions require a global ban on all forms of promotion, elimination of packaging and price as marketing tools, and limitations on the quantity, type and location of tobacco retailers. PMID:22345238

  17. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Determination of fair... REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable price...

  18. Hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in two eastern hardwood markets: The real story

    Treesearch

    Neal P. Kingsley; Paul S. DeBald; Paul S. DeBald

    1987-01-01

    Current and real prices of hardwood lumber and stumpage prices are discussed. Results show that inflation wiped out most of the apparent price increases in two major hardwood lumber markets. Stumpage prices also failed to increase in real terms for most species in Ohio. Current and real prices trends for eight major eastern species are shown for the period 1964 through...

  19. Multifractal analysis of spot rates in tanker markets and their comparisons with crude oil markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Shiyuan; Lan, Xiangang

    2016-02-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic features of the spot rates for VLCC/ULCC, Suezmax, Aframax, Panamax and Handysize tanker markets by means of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The Hurst exponents, especially the time-dependent Hurst exponents, of the daily rate returns are calculated to capture the fractal properties of these different tanker markets. The origins of multifractility in these markets are identified by comparing their multifractal scaling exponents based on the original data, the shuffled data and the surrogate data. Furthermore, the non-periodic cycles for these markets are detected by the V-statistic. Finally, the comparisons of the fractal properties between the tanker markets and the crude oil commodity markets suggest that the tanker markets are more fractal than their upstream counterparts.

  20. Market Distortion and the Tuition Pricing Mechanism of Higher Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Wei; Wu, Haiquan

    2008-01-01

    Higher education in the market economy is inevitable affected by the higher education market. The tuition of higher education in china had become the personal price performance of higher education in certain degrees and exerts some certain functions of price mechanism. Because the higher education market distortion that tuition pricing cannot…

  1. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... price quotation is available for each growth quoted for Middling one and three-thirty-second inch (M 13... lowest-priced growths of the growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East. (2) During the period... growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland...

  2. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC...

  3. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC...

  4. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC...

  5. Power systems locational marginal pricing in deregulated markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hui-Fung Francis

    Since the beginning of the 1990s, the electricity business is transforming from a vertical integrating business to a competitive market operations. The generation, transmission, distribution subsystem of an electricity utility are operated independently as Genco (generation subsystem), Transco (transmission subsystem), and Distco (distribution subsystem). This trend promotes more economical inter- and intra regional transactions to be made by the participating companies and the users of electricity to achieve the intended objectives of deregulation. There are various types of electricity markets that are implemented in the North America in the past few years. However, transmission congestion management becomes a key issue in the electricity market design as more bilateral transactions are traded across long distances competing for scarce transmission resources. It directly alters the traditional concept of energy pricing and impacts the bottom line, revenue and cost of electricity, of both suppliers and buyers. In this research, transmission congestion problem in a deregulated market environment is elucidated by implementing by the Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) method. With a comprehensive understanding of the LMP method, new mathematical tools will aid electric utilities in exploring new business opportunities are developed and presented in this dissertation. The dissertation focuses on the development of concept of (LMP) forecasting and its implication to the market participants in deregulated market. Specifically, we explore methods of developing fast LMP calculation techniques that are differ from existing LMPs. We also explore and document the usefulness of the proposed LMP in determining electricity pricing of a large scale power system. The developed mathematical tools use of well-known optimization techniques such as linear programming that are support by several flow charts. The fast and practical security constrained unit commitment methods are the

  6. A dynamical model describing stock market price distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masoliver, Jaume; Montero, Miquel; Porrà, Josep M.

    2000-08-01

    High-frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well established by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following properties: (i) They are not Gaussian and their center is well adjusted by Lévy distributions. (ii) They are long-tailed but have finite moments of any order. (iii) They are self-similar on many time scales. Finally, (iv) at small time scales, price volatility follows a non-diffusive behavior. We extend Merton's ideas on speculative price formation and present a dynamical model resulting in a characteristic function that explains in a natural way all of the above features. The knowledge of such a distribution opens a new and useful way of quantifying financial risk. The results of the model agree - with high degree of accuracy - with empirical data taken from historical records of the Standard & Poor's 500 cash index.

  7. Market power and hospital pricing: are nonprofits different?

    PubMed

    Melnick, G; Keeler, E; Zwanziger, J

    1999-01-01

    Dramatic changes in hospitals' operating environments are leading to major restructuring of hospital organizations. Hospital mergers and acquisitions are increasing each year, and conversions by hospitals to different forms of ownership also are continuing apace. Such changes require policymakers and regulators to develop and implement policies to ensure that consumers' interests are protected. An important consideration in this process is the impact on the price of hospital care following such transactions. This paper reviews empirical evidence that mergers that reduce competition will lead to price increases at both merging hospitals and their competitors, regardless of ownership status. We show that nonprofit and government hospitals have steadily become more willing to raise prices to exploit market power and discuss the implications for antitrust regulators and agencies that must approve nonprofit conversions.

  8. Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.; Moezzi, M.; Bharvirkar, R.; Neenan, B.; Boisvert, R.; Cappers, P.; Pratt, D.

    2004-07-01

    There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource and are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.

  9. Empirical investigation of stock price dynamics in an emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palágyi, Zoltán; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    1999-07-01

    We study the development of an emerging market - the Budapest Stock Exchange - by investigating the time evolution of some statistical properties of heavily traded stocks. Moving quarter by quarter over a period of two and a half years we analyze the scaling properties of the standard deviation of intra-day log-price changes. We observe scaling using both seconds and ticks as units of time. For the investigated stocks a Levy shape is a good approximation to the probability density function of tick-by-tick log-price changes in each quarter: the index of the distribution follows an increasing trend, suggesting it could be used as a measure of market efficiency.

  10. Optimal pricing and marketing planning for deteriorating items.

    PubMed

    Moosavi Tabatabaei, Seyed Reza; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Makui, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Optimal pricing and marketing planning plays an essential role in production decisions on deteriorating items. This paper presents a mathematical model for a three-level supply chain, which includes one producer, one distributor and one retailer. The proposed study considers the production of a deteriorating item where demand is influenced by price, marketing expenditure, quality of product and after-sales service expenditures. The proposed model is formulated as a geometric programming with 5 degrees of difficulty and the problem is solved using the recent advances in optimization techniques. The study is supported by several numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the effects of the changes in different parameters on the optimal solution. The preliminary results indicate that with the change in parameters influencing on demand, inventory holding, inventory deteriorating and set-up costs change and also significantly affect total revenue.

  11. Optimal pricing and marketing planning for deteriorating items

    PubMed Central

    Moosavi Tabatabaei, Seyed Reza; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Makui, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Optimal pricing and marketing planning plays an essential role in production decisions on deteriorating items. This paper presents a mathematical model for a three-level supply chain, which includes one producer, one distributor and one retailer. The proposed study considers the production of a deteriorating item where demand is influenced by price, marketing expenditure, quality of product and after-sales service expenditures. The proposed model is formulated as a geometric programming with 5 degrees of difficulty and the problem is solved using the recent advances in optimization techniques. The study is supported by several numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the effects of the changes in different parameters on the optimal solution. The preliminary results indicate that with the change in parameters influencing on demand, inventory holding, inventory deteriorating and set-up costs change and also significantly affect total revenue. PMID:28306750

  12. Transmission access and pricing with multiple separate energy forward markets

    SciTech Connect

    Gribik, P.R.; Angelidis, G.A.; Kovacs, R.R.

    1999-08-01

    California`s congestion management protocols provide comparable access and prices to all users of the transmission system (power exchange and bilateral contract parties). The users implicitly bid for capacity on major transmission paths between zones. The Independent System Operator (ISO) allocates the available transmission capacity on these paths so that it maximizes the value of this capacity as measured by the users` bids. Everyone scheduling flow on a congested path is charged the marginal-cost-based price for using the path. The ISO keeps each party`s portfolio of generation and load individually in balance when adjusting schedules to relieve congestion on interzonal paths. By keeping the portfolios of the different parties separate, the ISO clears its transmission market without arranging energy trades between parties. Parties are responsible for arranging their own trades. The ISO does not become involved in the energy forward markets.

  13. ESTIMATING WELFARE IN INSURANCE MARKETS USING VARIATION IN PRICES*

    PubMed Central

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Cullen, Mark R.

    2009-01-01

    We provide a graphical illustration of how standard consumer and producer theory can be used to quantify the welfare loss associated with inefficient pricing in insurance markets with selection. We then show how this welfare loss can be estimated empirically using identifying variation in the price of insurance. Such variation, together with quantity data, allows us to estimate the demand for insurance. The same variation, together with cost data, allows us to estimate how insurer’s costs vary as market participants endogenously respond to price. The slope of this estimated cost curve provides a direct test for both the existence and nature of selection, and the combination of demand and cost curves can be used to estimate welfare. We illustrate our approach by applying it to data on employer-provided health insurance from one specific company. We detect adverse selection but estimate that the quantitative welfare implications associated with inefficient pricing in our particular application are small, in both absolute and relative terms. PMID:21218182

  14. Design of a pulse oximeter for price sensitive emerging markets.

    PubMed

    Jones, Z; Woods, E; Nielson, D; Mahadevan, S V

    2010-01-01

    While the global market for medical devices is located primarily in developed countries, price sensitive emerging markets comprise an attractive, underserved segment in which products need a unique set of value propositions to be competitive. A pulse oximeter was designed expressly for emerging markets, and a novel feature set was implemented to reduce the cost of ownership and improve the usability of the device. Innovations included the ability of the device to generate its own electricity, a built in sensor which cuts down on operating costs, and a graphical, symbolic user interface. These features yield an average reduction of over 75% in the device cost of ownership versus comparable pulse oximeters already on the market.

  15. High and varying prices for privately insured patients underscore hospital market power.

    PubMed

    White, Chapin; Bond, Amelia M; Reschovsky, James D

    2013-09-01

    Across 13 selected U.S. metropolitan areas, hospital prices for privately insured patients are much higher than Medicare payment rates and vary widely across and within markets, according to a study by the Center for Studying Health System Change (HSC) based on claims data for about 590,000 active and retired nonelderly autoworkers and their dependents. Across the 13 communities, aver­age hospital prices for privately insured patients are about one-and-a-half times Medicare rates for inpatient care and two times what Medicare pays for outpa­tient care. Within individual communities, prices vary widely, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid 60 percent more for inpatient services than the lowest-priced hospital. The price gap within markets is even greater for hospital outpatient care, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid nearly double the lowest-priced hospital. In contrast to the wide variation in hospital prices for pri­vately insured patients across and within markets, prices for primary care physi­cian services generally are close to Medicare rates and vary little within markets. Prices for specialist physician services, however, are higher relative to Medicare and vary more across and within markets. Of the 13 markets, five are in Michigan, which has an unusually concentrated private insurance market, with one insurer commanding a 70-percent market share. Despite the presence of a dominant insurer, almost all Michigan hospi­tals command prices that are higher than Medicare, and some hospitals com­mand prices that are twice what Medicare pays. In the eight markets outside of Michigan, private insurers generally pay even higher hospital prices, with even wider gaps between high- and low-priced hospitals. The variation in hospital and specialist physician prices within communities underscores that some hospitals and physicians have significant market power to command high prices, even in markets with a dominant insurer.

  16. 77 FR 38553 - Proposed Modification to Regulation Concerning the Use of Market Economy Input Prices in...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-28

    ... Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings AGENCY: Import Administration, International... normally will use the price that a nonmarket economy (``NME'') producer pays to a market economy supplier when a factor of production is purchased from a market economy supplier and paid for in market...

  17. Market power in electric power markets: Indications of competitiveness in spatial prices for wholesale electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denton, Michael John

    The issue of market delineation and power in the wholesale electric energy market is explored using three separate approaches: two of these are analyses of spatial pricing data to explore the functional size of the markets, and the third is a series of experimental tests of the effects of different cost structures and market mechanisms on oligopoly strength in those markets. An equilibrium model of spatial network competition is shown to yield linear relationships between spatial prices. A data set comprising two years of spatial weekly peak and off-peak prices and weather for 6 locations in the Western States Coordinating Council and the Southwest Power Pool is subjected to a pairwise cointegration analysis. The use of dummy variables to account the the flow directions is found to significantly improve model performance. The second analytical technique utilizes the extraction of principal components from a spatial price correlation matrix to identify the extent of natural markets. One year of daily price observations for eleven locations within the WSCC is compiled and eigenvectors are extracted and subjected to oblique rotation, each of which is then interpreted as representing a separate geographic market. The results show that two distinct natural markets, correlated at 84%, account for over 96% of the variation in the spatial prices in the WSSC. Together, the findings support the assertion that the wholesale electricity market in the Western U.S. is large and highly competitive. The experimental analysis utilizes a radial three node network in which suppliers located at the outer nodes sell to buyers located at the central node. The parameterization captures the salient characteristics of the existing bulk power markets, and includes cyclical demand, transmission losses, as well as fixed and avoidable fixed costs for all agents. Treatments varied the number of sellers, the avoidable fixed cost structures, and the trading mechanism. Results indicated that

  18. Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatterjee, A.; Chakrabarti, B. K.

    2006-12-01

    We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), while the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution, for a market with agents having random saving propensity.

  19. Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach

    EPA Science Inventory

    The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in biofuel and agricultural markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

  20. Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach

    EPA Science Inventory

    The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in biofuel and agricultural markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

  1. The effects of market structure and bargaining position on hospital prices.

    PubMed

    Melnick, G A; Zwanziger, J; Bamezai, A; Pattison, R

    1992-10-01

    PPOs and HMOs have gained widespread acceptance due in part to the belief that excess capacity and competitive market conditions can be leveraged to negotiate lower prices with health care providers. We investigated prices obtained in different types of markets by the largest PPO in California. Our findings indicate that greater hospital competition leads to lower prices. Furthermore, as the importance of a hospital to the PPO in an area increases, the price rises substantially. Our testing of alternative methods for defining hospital geographic markets reveals that the common practice of using counties to define the market leads to an underestimate of the price-increasing effects of a merger.

  2. Competition and quality in a physiotherapy market with fixed prices.

    PubMed

    Pekola, Piia; Linnosmaa, Ismo; Mikkola, Hennamari

    2017-01-01

    Our study focuses on competition and quality in physiotherapy organized and regulated by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (Kela). We first derive a hypothesis with a theoretical model and then perform empirical analyses of the data. Within the physiotherapy market, prices are regulated by Kela, and after registration eligible firms are accepted to join a pool of firms from which patients choose service providers based on their individual preferences. By using 2SLS estimation techniques, we analyzed the relationship among quality, competition and regulated price. According to the results, competition has a statistically significant (yet weak) negative effect (p = 0.019) on quality. The outcome for quality is likely caused by imperfect information. It seems that Kela has provided too little information for patients about the quality of the service.

  3. A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    E-Khatib, Youssef

    2012-09-01

    One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.

  4. Essays on microgrids, asymmetric pricing and market power in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo Prete, Chiara

    This dissertation presents four studies of the electricity industry. The first and second essays use economic-engineering models to assess different aspects of microgrid penetration in regional electricity markets, while the last two studies contain empirical analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 2 develops a framework to quantify economic, environmental, efficiency and reliability impacts of different power production scenarios in a regional system, focusing on the interaction of microgrids with the existing transmission and distribution grid. The setting is the regional network formed by Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. The study presents simulations of power market outcomes under various policies and levels of microgrid penetration, and evaluates them using a diverse set of metrics. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between a microgrid and a regulated electric utility in a regional electricity market. I consider the interaction among the utility, the microgrid developer and consumers in the framework of cooperative game theory (assuming exchangeable utility), and use regional market models to simulate scenarios in which microgrid introduction may or may not be socially beneficial. Under the assumptions of this chapter, customer participation is essential to the development of socially beneficial microgrids, while the utility has little or no gain from it. Discussed incentives to avoid that utilities block microgrid entry include additional revenue drivers related to microgrid connection, decoupling and performance-based mechanisms targeted at service quality. When prices are below marginal costs of utility provided power, microgrid development may be socially beneficial, but unprofitable for microgrid customers and its developer. By imposing lower charges and higher remuneration for its services, the regulator could ensure that microgrid value is positive, without adversely impacting the utility

  5. Effect of market factors on the short-time pricing of stock-exchange metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.

  6. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China’s stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed. PMID:27513330

  7. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaotao; Ping, Jing; Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China's stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed.

  8. 78 FR 9330 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-08

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Agricultural Marketing Service 7 CFR Part 27 RIN 0581-AD26 Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) is proposing to amend the regulation that specifies...

  9. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How is fair market price... Development Contractual Assistance § 124.511 How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? (a) The procuring activity determines what constitutes a “fair market price” for an 8(a) contract. (1) The procuring...

  10. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false How is fair market price... Development Contractual Assistance § 124.511 How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? (a) The procuring activity determines what constitutes a “fair market price” for an 8(a) contract. (1) The procuring...

  11. Pricing in health care organizations. A key component of the marketing mix.

    PubMed

    Marlowe, D

    1989-01-01

    Pricing is one of the key components of a successful marketing mix. Pricing objectives, strategies, and tactics cannot stand alone, however. To be effective, price must work in harmony with other marketing and management activities. Despite its importance, use of pricing as a management tool is limited in health care compared to other industries. Many factors contribute to this situation, including the structure of the health-care exchange process, limited consumer knowledge, and a limited ability to measure costs. I will provide an overview of pricing information, both within and outside health care. Specifically, we will explore the definition of pricing, nonmonetary pricing, price elasticity, classical pricing theory, and the role of pricing in a health-care setting.

  12. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON...

  13. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes

    PubMed Central

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others’ actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants. PMID:27513335

  14. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes.

    PubMed

    Maskawa, Jun-Ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others' actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants.

  15. The effect of physician and health plan market concentration on prices in commercial health insurance markets.

    PubMed

    Schneider, John E; Li, Pengxiang; Klepser, Donald G; Peterson, N Andrew; Brown, Timothy T; Scheffler, Richard M

    2008-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the market structure of health plans (HPs) and physician organizations (POs) in California, a state with high levels of managed care penetration and selective contracting. First we calculate Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI) concentration indices for HPs and POs in 42 California counties. We then estimate a multivariable regression model to examine the relationship between concentration measures and the prices paid by HPs to POs. Price data is from Medstat MarketScan databases. The findings show that any California counties exhibit what the Department of Justice would consider high HHI concentration measures, in excess of 1,800. More than three quarters of California counties exhibit HP concentration indices over 1,800, and 83% of counties have PO concentration levels in excess of 1,800. Half of the study counties exhibited PO concentration levels in excess of 3,600, compared to only 24% for plans. Multivariate price models suggest that PO concentration is associated with higher physician prices (p < or = 0.05), whereas HP concentration does not appear to be significantly associated with higher outpatient commercial payer prices.

  16. Does the market share of generic medicines influence the price level?: a European analysis.

    PubMed

    Dylst, Pieter; Simoens, Steven

    2011-10-01

    After the expiry of patents for originator medicines, generic medicines can enter the market, and price competition may occur. This process generates savings to the healthcare payer and to patients, but knowledge about the factors affecting price competition in the pharmaceutical market following patent expiry is still limited. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the market share of generic medicines and the change of the medicine price level in European off-patent markets. Data on medicine volumes and values for 35 active substances were purchased from IMS Health. Ex-manufacturer prices were used, and the analysis was limited to medicines in immediate-release, oral, solid dosage forms. Countries included were Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK, which constitute a mix of countries with low and high generic medicines market shares. Data were available from June 2002 until March 2007. Market volume has risen in both high and low generic market share countries (+29.27% and +27.40%, respectively), but the cause of the rise is different for the two markets. In low generic market share countries, the rise was caused by the increased use of generic medicines, while in high market share countries, the rise was driven by the increased use of generic medicines and a shift of use from originator to generic medicines. Market value was substantially decreased in high generic market share countries (-26.6%), while the decrease in low generic market share countries was limited (-0.06%). In high generic market share countries, medicine prices dropped by -43.18% versus -21.56% in low market share countries. The extent to which price competition from generic medicines leads to price reductions appears to vary according to the market share of generic medicines. High generic market share countries have seen a larger decrease in medicine prices than low market share countries.

  17. Hospital prices and market structure in the hospital and insurance industries.

    PubMed

    Moriya, Asako S; Vogt, William B; Gaynor, Martin

    2010-10-01

    There has been substantial consolidation among health insurers and hospitals, recently, raising questions about the effects of this consolidation on the exercise of market power. We analyze the relationship between insurer and hospital market concentration and the prices of hospital services. We use a national US dataset containing transaction prices for health care services for over 11 million privately insured Americans. Using three years of panel data, we estimate how insurer and hospital market concentration are related to hospital prices, while controlling for unobserved market effects. We find that increases in insurance market concentration are significantly associated with decreases in hospital prices, whereas increases in hospital concentration are non-significantly associated with increases in prices. A hypothetical merger between two of five equally sized insurers is estimated to decrease hospital prices by 6.7%.

  18. Detrended fluctuation analysis on spot and futures markets of West Texas Intermediate crude oil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yudong; Wei, Yu; Wu, Chongfeng

    2011-03-01

    In this paper, we study the auto-correlations and cross-correlations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot and futures return series employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). Scaling analysis shows that, for time scales smaller than a month, the auto-correlations and cross-correlations are persistent. For time scales larger than a month but smaller than a year, the correlations are anti-persistent, while, for time scales larger than a year, the series are neither auto-correlated nor cross-correlated, indicating the efficient operation of the crude oil markets. Moreover, for small time scales, the degree of short-term cross-correlations is higher than that of auto-correlations. Using the multifractal extension of DFA and DCCA, we find that, for small time scales, the correlations are strongly multifractal, while, for large time scales, the correlations are nearly monofractal. Analyzing the multifractality of shuffled and surrogated series, we find that both long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions make important contributions to the multifractality. Our results have important implications for market efficiency and asset pricing models.

  19. An analysis of volumes, prices and pricing trends of the pediatric antiretroviral market in developing countries from 2004 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Lee, Janice Soo Fern; Sagaon Teyssier, Luis; Dongmo Nguimfack, Boniface; Collins, Intira Jeannie; Lallemant, Marc; Perriens, Joseph; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2016-03-15

    The pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) market is poorly described in the literature, resulting in gaps in understanding treatment access. We analyzed the pediatric ARV market from 2004 to 2012 and assessed pricing trends and associated factors. Data on donor funded procurements of pediatric ARV formulations reported to the Global Price Reporting Mechanism database from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were the volume and mean price per patient-year ARV formulation based on WHO ARV dosing recommendations for a 10 kg child. Factors associated with the price of formulations were assessed using linear regression; potential predictors included: country income classification, geographical region, market segment (originator versus generic ARVs), and number of manufacturers per formulation. All analyses were adjusted for type of formulations (single, dual or triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs)) Data from 111 countries from 2004 to 2012 were included, with procurement of 33 formulations at a total value of USD 204 million. Use of dual and triple FDC formulations increased substantially over time, but with limited changes in price. Upon multivariate analysis, prices of originator formulations were found to be on average 72 % higher than generics (p < 0.001). A 10 % increase in procurement volume was associated with a 1 % decrease (p < 0.001) in both originator and generic prices. The entry of one additional manufacturer producing a formulation was associated with a decrease in prices of 2 % (p < 0.001) and 8 % (p < 0.001) for originator and generic formulations, respectively. The mean generic ARV price did not differ by country income level. Prices of originator ARVs were 48 % (p < 0.001) and 14 % (p < 0.001) higher in upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries compared to low income countries respectively, with the exception of South Africa, which had lower prices despite being an upper-middle income country. The

  20. Preliminary survey of markets and prices of forest products in the Del-Mar-Va Peninsula

    Treesearch

    George E. Doverspike

    1949-01-01

    This preliminary survey was designed to explore the present methods of marketing farm products and the problems involved in collecting price information about primary forest products. No attempt was made to initiate a permanent price-reporting service, since that was beyond the scope of the survey. However, certain price information was obtained; it is shown in table 2...

  1. Threshold Pricing: A Strategy for the Marketing of Adult Education Courses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    Because threshold pricing's scope for course price development had a good potential for application to the marketing of services by nonprofit organizations, this study's purpose was to determine the existence and applicability of course price thresholds or ranges to the decisionmaking framework of adult educators, with special reference to…

  2. Threshold Pricing: A Strategy for the Marketing of Adult Education Courses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    Because threshold pricing's scope for course price development had a good potential for application to the marketing of services by nonprofit organizations, this study's purpose was to determine the existence and applicability of course price thresholds or ranges to the decisionmaking framework of adult educators, with special reference to…

  3. Asset price and trade volume relation in artificial market impacted by value investors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tangmongkollert, K.; Suwanna, S.

    2016-05-01

    The relationship between return and trade volume has been of great interests in a financial market. The appearance of asymmetry in the price-volume relation in the bull and bear market is still unsettled. We present a model of the value investor traders (VIs) in the double auction system, in which agents make trading decision based on the pseudo fundamental price modelled by sawtooth oscillations. We investigate the system by two different time series for the asset fundamental price: one corresponds to the fundamental price in a growing phase; and the other corresponds to that in a declining phase. The simulation results show that the trade volume is proportional to the difference between the market price and the fundamental price, and that there is asymmetry between the buying and selling phases. Furthermore, the selling phase has more significant impact of price on the trade volume than the buying phase.

  4. 78 FR 46799 - Use of Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-02

    ... International Trade Administration 19 CFR Part 351 RIN 0625-XC001 Use of Market Economy Input Prices in... (``NME'') producer pays to a market economy supplier when a factor of production is purchased from a market economy supplier and paid for in market economy currency, in the calculation of normal value (``NV...

  5. Analyzing millet price regimes and market performance in Niger with remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Essam, Timothy Michael

    This dissertation concerns the analysis of staple food prices and market performance in Niger using remotely sensed vegetation indices in the form of normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI). By exploiting the link between weather-related vegetation production conditions, which serve as a proxy for spatially explicit millet yields and thus millet availability, this study analyzes the potential causal links between NDVI outcomes and millet market performance and presents an empirical approach for predicting changes in market performance based on NDVI outcomes. Overall, the thesis finds that inter-market price spreads and levels of market integration can be reasonably explained by deviations in vegetation index outcomes from the growing season. Negative (positive) NDVI shocks are associated with better (worse) than expected market performance as measured by converging inter-market price spreads. As the number of markets affected by negatively abnormal vegetation production conditions in the same month of the growing season increases, inter-market price dispersion declines. Positive NDVI shocks, however, do not mirror this pattern in terms of the magnitude of inter-market price divergence. Market integration is also found to be linked to vegetation index outcomes as below (above) average NDVI outcomes result in more integrated (segmented) markets. Climate change and food security policies and interventions should be guided by these findings and account for dynamic relationships among market structures and vegetation production outcomes.

  6. Pricing Theory of Derivatives in Financial Engineering and the Problems on the Application to Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misawa, Tetsuya

    Recently, the wholesale electric power exchange has been founded in Japan. With the progress of the electricity market, some management schemes of electricity price risk will be necessary. In financial markets or the preceding electricity markets, various “derivatives" on assets in the markets are often used as management tools to hedge the price risk. This paper gives a short commentary on some fundamental concepts of the derivatives and the pricing theory in the financial engineering, and discusses the problems on the financial engineering approach to electricity derivatives.

  7. Market Share Matters: Evidence Of Insurer And Provider Bargaining Over Prices.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Eric T; Chernew, Michael E; McWilliams, J Michael

    2017-01-01

    Proposed mergers among large US health insurers and growing consolidation among providers have renewed concerns about the effects of market concentration on commercial health care prices. Using multipayer claims for physician services provided in office settings, we estimated that-within the same provider groups-insurers with market shares of 15 percent or more (average: 24.5 percent), for example, negotiated prices for office visits that were 21 percent lower than prices negotiated by insurers with shares of less than 5 percent. Analyses stratified by provider market share suggested that insurers require greater market shares to negotiate lower prices from large provider groups than they do when negotiating with smaller provider groups. For example, office visit prices for small practices were $88, $72, and $70, for insurers with market shares of <5 percent, ≥5 to <15 percent, and ≥15 percent, respectively, whereas prices for large provider groups were $97, $86, and $76, exhibiting a continued decrease across higher insurer-market-share categories. These results suggest that mergers of health insurers could lower the prices paid to providers, particularly providers large enough to obtain higher prices from insurers with modest market shares. Continued monitoring will be important for determining the net effects of the countervailing trends of insurer and provider consolidation on the affordability of health care.

  8. A comparison of pay-as-bid and marginal pricing in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yongjun

    This thesis investigates the behaviour of electricity markets under marginal and pay-as-bid pricing. Marginal pricing is believed to yield the maximum social welfare and is currently implemented by most electricity markets. However, in view of recent electricity market failures, pay-as-bid has been extensively discussed as a possible alternative to marginal pricing. In this research, marginal and pay-as-bid pricing have been analyzed in electricity markets with both perfect and imperfect competition. The perfect competition case is studied under both exact and uncertain system marginal cost prediction. The comparison of the two pricing methods is conducted through two steps: (i) identify the best offer strategy of the generating companies (gencos); (ii) analyze the market performance under these optimum genco strategies. The analysis results together with numerical simulations show that pay-as-bid and marginal pricing are equivalent in a perfect market with exact system marginal cost prediction. In perfect markets with uncertain demand prediction, the two pricing methods are also equivalent but in an expected value sense. If we compare from the perspective of second order statistics, all market performance measures exhibit much lower values under pay-as-bid than under marginal pricing. The risk of deviating from the mean is therefore much higher under marginal pricing than under pay-as-bid. In an imperfect competition market with exact demand prediction, the research shows that pay-as-bid pricing yields lower consumer payments and lower genco profits. This research provides quantitative evidence that challenges some common claims about pay-as-bid pricing. One is that under pay-as-bid, participants would soon learn how to offer so as to obtain the same or higher profits than what they would have obtained under marginal pricing. This research however shows that, under pay-as-bid, participants can at best earn the same profit or expected profit as under marginal

  9. Relationships among Energy Price Shocks, Stock Market, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

    PubMed Central

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market “underreacting.” The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market. PMID:23690737

  10. Relationships among energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy: evidence from China.

    PubMed

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market.

  11. The Price-Concentration Relationship in Early Residential Solar Third-Party Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Pless, Jacquelyn; Langheim, Ria; Machak, Christina; Hellow, Henar; Sigrin, Ben

    2017-01-01

    The market for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade, with installed capacity more than doubling between 2014 and 2016 alone (SEIA, 2016). As the residential market continues to grow, it prompts new questions about the nature of competition between solar installers and how this competition, or lack thereof, affects the prices consumers are paying. It is often assumed that more competition leads to lower prices, but this is not universally true. For example, some studies have shown that factors such as brand loyalty could lead to a negative relationship between concentration and price in imperfectly competitive markets (Borenstein, 1985; Holmes, 1989). As such, the relationship between prices and market concentration is an open empirical question since theory could predict either a positive or negative relationship. Determining a relationship between prices and market concentration is challenging for several reasons. Most significantly, prices and market structure are simultaneously determined by each other -- the amount of competition a seller faces influences the price they can command, and prices determine a seller's market share. Previous studies have examined recent PV pricing trends over time and between markets (Davidson et al., 2015a; Davidson and Margolis 2015b; Nemet et al., 2016; Gillingham et al., 2014; Barbose and Darghouth 2015). While these studies of solar PV pricing are able to determine correlations between prices and market factors, they have not satisfactorily proven causation. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, there is little work to date that focuses on identifying the causal relationship between market structure and the prices paid by consumers. We use a unique dataset on third-party owned contract terms for the residential solar PV market in the San Diego Gas and Electricity service territory to better understand this relationship. Surprisingly, we find that

  12. Influence of market factors on the pricing of exchange traded metals in the medium term

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

    2017-06-01

    On the basis of comparison of the influence of the stock exchange factors on the pricing of nonferrous metals for medium term with similar results for short term, it has been established that the main attention should be paid to the changes in the pricing environment on the metal market as a function of the prices of exchange traded metals. The situation on the market of energy carriers (hydrocarbons) and the European, American, and Asian stock exchanges can be based on parity and even significantly influence the variation of the metal prices. In the medium term, constructive development of metal trade should be reasonably promoted by changing the elasticity of supply with regard to prices for exchange traded metals and by applying the stock exchange factors that positively influence the pricing on commodity and stock markets.

  13. Reversible solid oxide cells for bidirectional energy conversion in spot electricity and fuel markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarreal Singer, Diego

    The decarbonization of the energy system is one of the most complex and consequential challenges of the 21st century. Meeting this challenge will require the deployment of existing low carbon technologies at unprecedented scales and rates and will necessitate the development of new technologies that have the ability to transform variable renewable energy into high energy density products. Reversible Solid Oxide Cells (RSOCs) are electrochemical devices that can function both as fuel cells or electrolyzers: in fuel cell mode, RSOCs consume a chemical fuel (H2, CO, CH4, etc.) to produce electrical power, while in electrolysis mode they consume electric power and chemical inputs (H2O, CO2) to produce a chemical fuel (H2, CO, CH4, etc.). As such, RSOC systems can be thought of as flexible "energy hubs" that have unique potential to bridge the low power density renewable infrastructure with that of high energy density fuels in an efficient, dynamic, and bidirectional fashion. This dissertation explores the different operational sensitivities and design trade-offs of a methane based RSOC system, investigates the optimum operating strategies for a system that adapts to variations in the hourly spot electricity and fuel prices in Western Denmark, and provides an economic analysis of the system under a wide variety of design assumptions, operational strategies, and fuel and electricity market structures. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  14. Cross-correlations between spot and futures markets of nonferrous metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Li; Wang, Yudong

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we investigate cross-correlations between nonferrous metal spot and futures markets using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). We find the existence of significant cross-correlations for both return and volatility series. The DCCA-based cross-correlation coefficients are very high and decrease with the futures maturity increases. Using the multifractal extension of DCCA, the multifractality in cross-correlations is revealed. We also detect the source of cross-correlations between spot and futures markets. We use the vector error correction model and bivariate BEKK-GARCH to model the interactions between returns and volatilities of spot and futures, respectively. Our findings indicate that the volatility spillover between spot and futures markets contributes major to nonlinear cross-correlation while the contribution of mean spillover is very minor.

  15. Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li

    With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

  16. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ..., East Texas and Oklahoma, West Texas, Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley. Such markets will... Desert Southwest Markets and the New Mexico counties of Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt and Lea. Desert... counties. San Joaquin Valley All California counties except those included in the Desert Southwest market....

  17. Market competition and price of disease management programmes: an observational study.

    PubMed

    van Dijk, Christel E; Venema, Bob; de Jong, Judith D; de Bakker, Dinny H

    2014-10-30

    Managed competition was introduced into the health care system in several countries including the Netherlands, although effects of competition of both providers and health insurers on the price of health care are inconclusive. We investigated the association between competition of both providers (care groups) and health insurers and the price of disease management programmes (DMPs). Data from 76 DMP contractual agreements for type II diabetes mellitus in 2008, 2009 and 2010 were used to analyse the association between market competition and the price of DMPs. Market competition was calculated per municipal health services region (GGD). Insurer market competition was measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), care group competition by the number of care groups and the care group market share of GPs. The effect of competition was cross-sectionally studied with linear regression analyses. Insurer market concentration (HHI) and care group market share were not associated with the price of DMPs. The number of care groups in a GGD region was associated with a lower price (-€4.68; 95% CI: -8.36 - -1.00). The mean difference in the price of DMPs between health insurers was €58. The price of DMPs seems to be more dependent on the particular health insurer than on market conditions. For competition among health insurers and provider groups to develop, preconditions such as selective contracting and option for patient to change provider should be in place.

  18. Quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model for daily price-limited stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Xu, Jingjing; Guo, Hong

    2015-11-01

    We investigate the behaviors of stocks in daily price-limited stock markets by purposing a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model. The stock price is considered to be oscillating and damping in a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic oscillator potential well. A complicated non-linear relation including inter-band positive correlation and intra-band negative correlation between the volatility and trading volume of a stock is numerically derived with the energy band structure of the model concerned. The effectiveness of price limit is re-examined, with some observed characteristics of price-limited stock markets in China studied by applying our quantum model.

  19. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  20. The effects of drug market regulation on pharmaceutical prices in Europe: overview and evidence from the market of ACE inhibitors.

    PubMed

    von der Schulenburg, Fritz; Vandoros, Sotiris; Kanavos, Panos

    2011-11-21

    This study provides an overview of policy measures targeting pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe and analyses their impact on originator pharmaceutical prices. Panel data methods are used to examine the market of ACE Inhibitors in six European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom) over period 1991-2006. We find that although some measures are effective in reducing originator prices, others appear to have an insignificant effect. Results suggest that supply side measures such as mandatory generic substitution, regressive pharmacy mark-ups and claw-backs are effective in reducing pharmaceuticals prices. Results are not as strong for demand side measures. Profit controls and the use of cost-effectiveness analysis appear to have a negative effect on prices, while results on reference pricing are inconclusive. Findings also indicate that, although originator prices are not immediately affected by generic entry, they may be influenced by changes in generic prices post patent expiry.

  1. The effects of drug market regulation on pharmaceutical prices in Europe: overview and evidence from the market of ACE inhibitors

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    This study provides an overview of policy measures targeting pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe and analyses their impact on originator pharmaceutical prices. Panel data methods are used to examine the market of ACE Inhibitors in six European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom) over period 1991-2006. We find that although some measures are effective in reducing originator prices, others appear to have an insignificant effect. Results suggest that supply side measures such as mandatory generic substitution, regressive pharmacy mark-ups and claw-backs are effective in reducing pharmaceuticals prices. Results are not as strong for demand side measures. Profit controls and the use of cost-effectiveness analysis appear to have a negative effect on prices, while results on reference pricing are inconclusive. Findings also indicate that, although originator prices are not immediately affected by generic entry, they may be influenced by changes in generic prices post patent expiry. PMID:22828053

  2. Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

    PubMed

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.

  3. Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  4. Scale-dependent price fluctuations for the Indian stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matia, K.; Pal, M.; Salunkay, H.; Stanley, H. E.

    2004-06-01

    Classic studies of the probability density of price fluctuations g for stocks and foreign exchanges of several highly developed economies have been interpreted using a power law probability density function P(g) ~ g-(α + 1) with exponent values α > 2. To test the ubiquity of this relationship we analyze daily returns for the period November 1994 June 2002 for the 49 largest stocks of the National Stock Exchange which has the highest trade volume in India. We find the surprising result that P(g) decays as an exponential function P(g) ~ exp [ - βg] with a characteristic decay scale β = 1.51 ± 0.05 for the negative tail and β = 1.34 ± 0.04 for the positive tail. The exponential function is significantly different from the power law function observed for highly developed economies. Thus, we conclude that the stock market of the less highly developed economy of India belongs to a different class from that of highly developed countries.

  5. Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using OpenADR

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Joyce Jihyun; Kiliccote, Sila

    2012-06-01

    In New York State, the default electricity pricing for large customers is Mandatory Hourly Pricing (MHP), which is charged based on zonal day-ahead market price for energy. With MHP, retail customers can adjust their building load to an economically optimal level according to hourly electricity prices. Yet, many customers seek alternative pricing options such as fixed rates through retail access for their electricity supply. Open Automated Demand Response (OpenADR) is an XML (eXtensible Markup Language) based information exchange model that communicates price and reliability information. It allows customers to evaluate hourly prices and provide demand response in an automated fashion to minimize electricity costs. This document shows how OpenADR can support MHP and facilitate price responsive demand for large commercial customers in New York City.

  6. Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

  7. Hospital market concentration, pricing, and profitability in orthopedic surgery and interventional cardiology.

    PubMed

    Robinson, James C

    2011-06-01

    To examine the association between hospital market concentration and pricing. Hospitals have been merging into systems that potentially wield bargaining power over private health insurers. Concern is growing among policy makers that these systems may respond to provisions of the 2010 health reform legislation by further increasing consolidation and prices. Multivariate statistical methods were used to evaluate the association between hospital market concentration, prices, and profits (contribution margins) for commercially insured patients admitted for any of 6 major cardiac and orthopedic surgery procedures, adjusting for characteristics of the patient (diagnoses, comorbidities,complications) and of the hospital (size, patient volume, teaching status). Data were obtained on 11,330 patients treated in 61 hospitals in 27 markets across 8 states in 2008. Hospital prices for patients in concentrated markets were higher than hospital prices for otherwise-comparable patients in competitive markets by 25.1% for coronary angioplasty, 13.0%for cardiac rhythm management (CRM) device insertion, 19.2% for total knee replacement, 24.1%for total hip replacement, 19.3% for lumbar spine fusion, and 22.7% for cervical spine fusion (P <.05). Contribution margins were higher in concentrated than in competitive hospital markets by $5259 for angioplasty, $3417 for CRM device insertion, $4123 for total knee replacement, $5889 for total hip replacement, $7931 for lumbar spine fusion, and $4663 for cervical spine fusion (P <.05). Hospitals in concentrated markets charge significantly higher prices and earn significantly higher margins from private insurers than do hospitals in competitive markets.

  8. The impact of price-cap regulations on market entry by generic pharmaceutical firms.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Sun, Huiying; Guh, Daphne; Anis, Aslam H

    2017-04-01

    In 1998, the province of Ontario, Canada implemented price-cap '70/90' regulations: the first generic must be priced at ≤70% of the associated brand-name price and subsequent generics must be priced at ≤90% of the first generics' price. The price-cap was further lowered to 50% in 2006 and 25% in 2010 for all generic drugs regardless of the first or subsequent generic entrants. This study assessed the impact of such price-cap regulations on market entry by generic firms using the formulary database from 9 provinces (January 2004-March 2013). A logistic regression was estimated to compare the probability of entry during the three policy periods in Ontario ('70/90', '25', versus '50'). Since different price-caps were subsequently introduced in other provinces, Alberta, British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, difference-in-differences was used to compare market entry. In Ontario, compared with the period '50', generic firms were 76% and 63% less likely to enter markets in the periods '25' and '70/90', respectively. The difference-in-differences showed that the entry probability decreased the most in Ontario during the '25' period from the '50' period. Lowering the price-cap level to 25% leads to a significantly lower probability of market entry by generic firms.

  9. Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; economic uses fact sheet 07: markets and log prices

    Treesearch

    Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service

    2004-01-01

    Markets and prices for logs vary widely across the West, fluctuating from place to place in response to regional variables and hauling costs. This fact sheet discusses those variables, locality of log markets, markets for low-value logs, and caveats to consider when using My Fuel Treatment Planner.

  10. Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

    2012-06-01

    An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

  11. Fish market prices drive overfishing of the ‘big ones’

    PubMed Central

    Polymeros, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing. PMID:25392754

  12. The Questionable Economic Case for Value-Based Drug Pricing in Market Health Systems.

    PubMed

    Pauly, Mark V

    2017-02-01

    This article investigates the economic theory and interpretation of the concept of "value-based pricing" for new breakthrough drugs with no close substitutes in a context (such as the United States) in which a drug firm with market power sells its product to various buyers. The interpretation is different from that in a country that evaluates medicines for a single public health insurance plan or a set of heavily regulated plans. It is shown that there will not ordinarily be a single value-based price but rather a schedule of prices with different volumes of buyers at each price. Hence, it is incorrect to term a particular price the value-based price, or to argue that the profit-maximizing monopoly price is too high relative to some hypothesized value-based price. When effectiveness of treatment or value of health is heterogeneous, the profit-maximizing price can be higher than that associated with assumed values of quality-adjusted life-years. If the firm sets a price higher than the value-based price for a set of potential buyers, the optimal strategy of the buyers is to decline to purchase that drug. The profit-maximizing price will come closer to a unique value-based price if demand is less heterogeneous.

  13. White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Peter M.

    The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

  14. Analysis of the temporal properties of price shock sequences in crude oil markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying; Huang, Wei-qiang

    2014-01-01

    As one of the fundamental energy sources and important chemical raw materials, crude oil is crucially important to every country. Especially, the price shock of crude oil will bring about hidden dangers in energy security and economic security. Therefore, investigating the dynamics of frequent price shocks of crude oil markets seems to be crucial and necessary. In order to make the conclusions more reliable and valid, we use two different representations of the price shocks (inter-event times and series of counts) to study the temporal properties of price shock sequences in crude oil markets, such as coefficient of variation, Allan Factor, Fano Factors, Rescaled Range analysis and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. We find evidence that the time dynamics of the price shock sequences can be considered as a fractal process with a high degree of time-clusterization of the events. It could give us some useful information to better understand the nature and dynamics of crude oil markets.

  15. Impacts of regulated competition on pricing in Chinese pharmaceutical market under urban employee basic medical insurance.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Mingyue; Wu, Jing

    2017-06-01

    Examine the effects of regulated competition on the drug pricing in China. Based on product-level data, a regression method was employed for pricing by using data from Tianjin Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) database. The market competition measures distinguished generic competition within the same molecule from therapeutic competition within the same therapeutic class. The increases in pricing are inversely related to the number of generic competitions. The generic sub-group results vary from the originator sub-group. For the generics, generic competition has a significantly reduced effect on the price; however, only therapeutic competition has a significantly reduced effect on the originator price. Regulated competition has a positive role in shaping the pharmaceutical market. Furthermore, regulated competition affects the price differently for the sub-groups. The promotion of competition between generic and originator in order to reap full competition benefit and reduce frictions among policies are necessary.

  16. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ..., East Texas and Oklahoma, West Texas, Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley. Such markets will... Hidalgo counties. West Texas All Texas counties not included in the East Texas, Oklahoma and Desert Southwest Markets and the New Mexico counties of Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt and Lea. Desert Southwest...

  17. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ..., East Texas and Oklahoma, West Texas, Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley. Such markets will... Hidalgo counties. West Texas All Texas counties not included in the East Texas, Oklahoma and Desert Southwest Markets and the New Mexico counties of Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt and Lea. Desert Southwest...

  18. Market review - Market values summary/October market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-01

    This article is the October 1995 uranium market summary. In this reporting period, there were four transactions in the natural uranium market, no activity in the spot UF6 market, no activity in the spot conversion market, and only a single activity in the enrichment services market. Spot uranium volume dropped sharply, and active uranium supply rose. The rise in demand, however, more than offset this increase. Unrestricted exchange prices rose slightly, as did the unrestricted UF6 value. All other prices remained steady.

  19. OSTEOPOROSIS DRUGS MARKETED IN THE UNITED STATES: GENERIC COMPETITION, PRICING STRUCTURE, AND DISPERSION AMONG PAYERS.

    PubMed

    Balkhi, Bander; Seoane-Vazquez, Enrique; Rodriguez-Monguio, Rosa

    2016-01-01

    Despite the cost of pharmaceuticals, studies assessing prices of osteoporosis drugs are lacking. This study examined trends in prices of osteoporosis drugs in the United States in the period 1988-2014, assessed pricing structure of osteoporosis drugs, and evaluated price trends before and after generic drugs market entry. Data were derived from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the RedBook, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and the Federal Supply Schedule (FSS). Descriptive statistics and segmented linear regression analyses were performed. In the period 1988-2014, osteoporosis drug prices increased faster than the inflation. The average wholesale price (AWP) of generic products at market entry represented 90 percent of the AWP for the corresponding brand. Prices of brand products continued to increase after generic entry. Drug prices showed a significant variation when compared with the brand AWP. The brand wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) was typically set at 83.3 percent of the AWP. Community pharmacies acquired osteoporosis brand drugs at a median of 80.5 percent of the brand AWP. Significant reductions in brand AWP were observed for Medicare Part B (78.5 percent of the brand AWP), generic National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (33.7 percent), and FSS (22.5 percent). There are significant differences in the manufacturer prices, pharmacy acquisition costs and reimbursement rates of osteoporosis drugs. Pharmaceutical companies listed prices are higher than the pharmacy actual estimated acquisitions costs, and the prices used for reimbursement to providers. Generic drugs entry significantly drives down prices; still, prices of branded drugs facing generic competition continued to increase after generic market entry.

  20. Multifractal properties of price change and volume change of stock market indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stošić, Dusan; Stošić, Darko; Stošić, Tatijana; Eugene Stanley, H.

    2015-06-01

    We study auto-correlations and cross-correlations of daily price changes and daily volume changes of thirteen global stock market indices, using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA). We find rather distinct multifractal behavior of price and volume changes. Our results indicate that the time series of price changes are more complex than those of volume changes, and that large fluctuations dominate multifractal behavior of price changes, while small fluctuations dominate multifractal behavior of volume changes. We also find that there is an absence of correlations in price changes, there are anti-persistent long-term correlations in volume changes, and there are anti-persistent long-term cross-correlations between price and volume changes. Shuffling the series reveals that multifractality of both price changes and volume changes arises from a broad probability density function.

  1. Correlation of coming limit price with order book in stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2007-09-01

    We examine the correlation of the limit price with the order book, when a limit order comes. We analyzed the Rebuild Order Book of Stock Exchange Electronic Trading Service, which is the centralized order book market of London Stock Exchange. As a result, the limit price is broadly distributed around the best price according to a power-law, and it is not randomly drawn from the distribution, but has a strong correlation with the size of cumulative unexecuted limit orders on the price. It was also found that the limit price, on the coarse-grained price scale, tends to gather around the price which has a large size of cumulative unexecuted limit orders.

  2. Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

    2015-05-01

    Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

  3. An econometric analysis of the market for natural gas futures

    SciTech Connect

    Walls, W.D.

    1995-12-31

    This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of future markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets. 29 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  4. Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak.

    PubMed

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

    2017-01-01

    The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels.

  5. Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak

    PubMed Central

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

    2017-01-01

    The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels. PMID:28660192

  6. Socio-economic Effects of Drought in the Horn of Africa: Population Movements, Livelihoods, Market Prices, and Infrastructure

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-21

    ER D C/ CR RE L TR -1 4- 5 Socio-economic Effects of Drought in the Horn of Africa Population Movements, Livelihoods, Market Prices , and...ERDC/CRREL TR-14-5 April 2014 Socio-economic Effects of Drought in the Horn of Africa Population Movements, Livelihoods, Market Prices , and...Additional analyses investigated market price re- sponse to drought and market connectivity and explored the use of census data on household water

  7. Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.

  8. Concentration and drug prices in the retail market for malaria treatment in rural Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Goodman, Catherine; Kachur, S Patrick; Abdulla, Salim; Bloland, Peter; Mills, Anne

    2009-06-01

    The impact of market concentration has been little studied in markets for ambulatory care in the developing world, where the retail sector often accounts for a high proportion of treatments. This study begins to address this gap through an analysis of the consumer market for malaria treatment in rural areas of three districts in Tanzania. We developed methods for investigating market definition, sales volumes and concentration, and used these to explore the relationship between antimalarial retail prices and competition.The market was strongly geographically segmented and highly concentrated in terms of antimalarial sales. Antimalarial prices were positively associated with market concentration. High antimalarial prices were likely to be an important factor in the low proportion of care-seekers obtaining appropriate treatment.Retail sector distribution of subsidised antimalarials has been proposed to increase the coverage of effective treatment, but this analysis indicates that local market power may prevent such subsidies from being passed on to rural customers. Policymakers should consider the potential to maintain lower retail prices by decreasing concentration among antimalarial providers and recommending retail price levels. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. CONCENTRATION AND DRUG PRICES IN THE RETAIL MARKET FOR MALARIA TREATMENT IN RURAL TANZANIA

    PubMed Central

    GOODMAN, CATHERINE; KACHUR, S. PATRICK; ABDULLA, SALIM; BLOLAND, PETER; MILLS, ANNE

    2009-01-01

    SUMMARY The impact of market concentration has been little studied in markets for ambulatory care in the developing world, where the retail sector often accounts for a high proportion of treatments. This study begins to address this gap through an analysis of the consumer market for malaria treatment in rural areas of three districts in Tanzania. We developed methods for investigating market definition, sales volumes and concentration, and used these to explore the relationship between antimalarial retail prices and competition. The market was strongly geographically segmented and highly concentrated in terms of antimalarial sales. Antimalarial prices were positively associated with market concentration. High antimalarial prices were likely to be an important factor in the low proportion of care seekers obtaining appropriate treatment. Retail sector distribution of subsidised antimalarials has been proposed to increase the coverage of effective treatment, but this analysis indicates that local market power may prevent such subsidies from being passed on to rural customers. Policymakers should consider the potential to maintain lower retail prices by decreasing concentration among antimalarial providers and recommending retail price levels. PMID:19301420

  10. Pulp & paper markets cope with high energy prices and growth in Asia : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2005-2006

    Treesearch

    Peter J. Ince

    2006-01-01

    \\tPulp and paper markets in the UNECE region were influenced by higher energy prices and demand growth in Asia in 2005 and 2006. Important developments in Europe included the launching of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which was followed by substantial increases in electrical energy prices. High global energy prices pushed up costs of production and prices for pulp...

  11. World oil market outlook: recent history and forecasts of world oil prices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-08-01

    Recent world oil price trends and pricing behavior by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are examined. An outlook for consumption, production and prices in the world oil market, both for the short-term horizon through 1982 and for the midterm period from 1985 through 1995 is presented. A historical review focuses on OPEC activity in the period from January 1980 to May 1981. Several sensitivity analyses and the impact of supply disruptions are used to determine projections. The appendix provides data on world crude oil prices for each of 23 countries for January, May, and June of 1980 and May of 1981. 22 tables, 9 figures.

  12. The inevitable commoditization of electric power markets

    SciTech Connect

    Mango, B.; Woodley, J.A.C.

    1994-11-01

    As competition grows between electric suppliers it is inevitable that a spot market in electricity will evolve. The impetus is the market demand for greater asset productivity. With prices revealed, a commodity market will follow. With spot and commodity markets will come the power to reallocate risk and make capital investment more productive. Given price volatility, separate markets will develop for near- and long-term hedging instruments.

  13. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: a duopoly market pricing competition and cooperation under the carbon emissions cap.

    PubMed

    Jian, Ming; He, Hua; Ma, Changsong; Wu, Yan; Yang, Hao

    2017-05-17

    This article studies the price competition and cooperation in a duopoly that is subjected to carbon emissions cap. The study assumes that in a departure from the classical Bertrand game, there is still a market for both firms' goods regardless of the product price, even though production capacity is limited by carbon emissions regulation. Through the decentralized decision making of both firms under perfect information, the results are unstable. The firm with the lower maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation and the firm with the higher maximum production capacity both seek market price cooperation. By designing an internal carbon credits trading mechanism, we can ensure that the production capacity of the firm with the higher maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation reaches price equilibrium. Also, the negotiation power of the duopoly would affect the price equilibrium.

  14. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  15. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  16. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norouzzadeh, P.; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, B.

    2007-07-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal analysis, fluctuations behavior, the scaling exponents and generalized Hurst exponents are studied. Moreover, contribution of fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations to multifractality is studied.

  17. Pricing behaviour of nonprofit insurers in a weakly competitive social health insurance market.

    PubMed

    Douven, Rudy C H M; Schut, Frederik T

    2011-03-01

    In this paper we examine the pricing behaviour of nonprofit health insurers in the Dutch social health insurance market. Since for-profit insurers were not allowed in this market, potential spillover effects from the presence of for-profit insurers on the behaviour of nonprofit insurers were absent. Using a panel data set for all health insurers operating in the Dutch social health insurance market over the period 1996-2004, we estimate a premium model to determine which factors explain the price setting behaviour of nonprofit health insurers. We find that financial stability rather than profit maximisation offers the best explanation for health plan pricing behaviour. In the presence of weak price competition, health insurers did not set premiums to maximize profits. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that regulations on financial reserves are needed to restrict premiums. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Introducing a price variation limiter mechanism into a behavioral financial market model.

    PubMed

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-08-01

    In the present paper, we consider a nonlinear financial market model in which, in order to decrease the complexity of the dynamics and to achieve price stabilization, we introduce a price variation limiter mechanism, which in each period bounds the price variation so that the current price is forced to belong to a certain interval determined by the price realization in the previous period. More precisely, we introduce such mechanism into a financial market model in which the price dynamics are described by a sigmoidal price adjustment mechanism characterized by the presence of two asymptotes that bound the price variation and thus the dynamics. We show that the presence of our asymptotes prevents divergence and negativity issues. Moreover, we prove that the basins of attraction are complicated only under suitable conditions on the parameters and that chaos arises just when the price limiters are loose enough. On the other hand, for some suitable parameter configurations, we detect multistability phenomena characterized by the presence of up to three coexisting attractors.

  19. Introducing a price variation limiter mechanism into a behavioral financial market model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-08-01

    In the present paper, we consider a nonlinear financial market model in which, in order to decrease the complexity of the dynamics and to achieve price stabilization, we introduce a price variation limiter mechanism, which in each period bounds the price variation so that the current price is forced to belong to a certain interval determined by the price realization in the previous period. More precisely, we introduce such mechanism into a financial market model in which the price dynamics are described by a sigmoidal price adjustment mechanism characterized by the presence of two asymptotes that bound the price variation and thus the dynamics. We show that the presence of our asymptotes prevents divergence and negativity issues. Moreover, we prove that the basins of attraction are complicated only under suitable conditions on the parameters and that chaos arises just when the price limiters are loose enough. On the other hand, for some suitable parameter configurations, we detect multistability phenomena characterized by the presence of up to three coexisting attractors.

  20. Post-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2017-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are useful to cool off traders short-term trading mania on individual stocks. The price dynamics approaching the limit boards are known as the magnet effect. However, the price dynamics after opening price limit hits are not well investigated. Here, we provide a detailed analysis on the price dynamics after the hits of up-limit or down-limit is open based on all A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock markets. A "W" shape is found in the expected return, which reveals high probability of a continuous price limit hit on the following day. We also find that price dynamics after opening limit hits are dependent on the market trends. The time span of continuously hitting the price limit is found to an influence factor of the expected profit after the limit hit is open. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics around the limit boards and contributes potential practical values for investors.

  1. Marketing cigarettes when all else is unavailable: evidence of discounting in price-sensitive neighbourhoods.

    PubMed

    Burton, Suzan; Williams, Kelly; Fry, Rae; Chapman, Kathy; Soulos, Greg; Tang, Anita; Walsberger, Scott; Egger, Sam

    2014-05-01

    Since price is both a key determinant of smoking and one of the few remaining marketing strategies available in countries without point-of-sale tobacco display, this study examines cigarette price variations in the Australian market and assesses whether those variations are consistent with price being used to increase or maintain smoking among price-sensitive groups. An audit of 1739 tobacco retailers was used to collect variations in the price of the best-selling Australian cigarette brand, as well as record retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. We examined variation in pricing across outlet type, demographic variations (socioeconomic level, % in the area under 18 and % born in Australia), remoteness and retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. Multipacks were offered by 27.8% of retailers, with the average pack price in a twin pack $1.32 (or 7.3%) cheaper than a single pack. Prices were significantly lower in some outlet types, in lower socioeconomic postcodes and in those with a higher percentage of people under 18. In contrast with other consumer goods, prices were lower (although not significantly so) outside major cities. The provision of substantial multi-pack discounts and lower prices in postcodes with a higher proportion of price-sensitive smokers (young people and those from lower socioeconomic groups) is consistent with targeted discounts being used as a tobacco marketing strategy. The results support policy interventions to counter selective discounts and to require disclosure of trade-based discounts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Gum Producers Can Improve Quality Of Gum Marketed and Get Higher Prices

    Treesearch

    Ralph W. Clements

    1979-01-01

    Acid waste from over-treatment and old, wornout iron cups have contributed significantly to the generally poor quality of gum marketed. Today producers are reluctant to purchase new cups and gutters and invest up to $1.80 per tree for production when the market price for gum averages 14.54 per pound annually. Guidelines are given for improving the quality by...

  3. Deconstructing Solar Photovoltaic Pricing: The Role of Market Structure, Technology, and Policy

    SciTech Connect

    Gillingham, Kenneth; Deng, Hao; Wiser, Ryan; Darghouth, Naim; Nemet, Gregory; Barbose, Galen; Rai, Varun; Dong, C. G.

    2014-12-15

    Solar photovoltaic (PV) system prices in the United States display considerable heterogeneity both across geographic locations and within a given location. Such heterogeneity may arise due to state and federal policies, differences in market structure, and other factors that influence demand and costs. This paper examines the relative importance of such factors on equilibrium solar PV system prices in the United States using a detailed dataset of roughly 100,000 recent residential and small commercial installations. As expected, we find that PV system prices differ based on characteristics of the systems. More interestingly, we find evidence suggesting that search costs and imperfect competition affect solar PV pricing. Installer density substantially lowers prices, while regions with relatively generous financial incentives for solar PV are associated with higher prices.

  4. Course Length Versus Course Price: Marketing Factors in Program Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    Recent program planning literature involving adult education has attempted to draw upon techniques from marketing management. Most of the literature has, however, not explored the relationship between adult education program decision needs and fundamental marketing concepts. Adult educators and marketing managers are conducting similar daily…

  5. Course Length Versus Course Price: Marketing Factors in Program Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    Recent program planning literature involving adult education has attempted to draw upon techniques from marketing management. Most of the literature has, however, not explored the relationship between adult education program decision needs and fundamental marketing concepts. Adult educators and marketing managers are conducting similar daily…

  6. Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news. PMID:26107740

  7. Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market.

    PubMed

    Kouwenberg, Roy; Zwinkels, Remco C J

    2015-01-01

    Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news.

  8. Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondi, Yuri; Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo; Galam, Serge

    2012-11-01

    Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption of one unique “true value” and deals with the formation of share market prices through the dynamic formation of individual and social opinions (or beliefs) based upon a fundamental signal of economic performance and position of the firm, the forecast revision by heterogeneous individual investors, and their social mood or sentiment about the ongoing state of the market pricing process. Market clearing price formation is then featured by individual and group dynamics that make its collective dimension irreducible to its individual level. This dynamic holistic approach can be applied to better understand the market exuberance generated by the Share Exchange over time.

  9. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  10. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  11. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  12. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  13. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  14. Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

  15. Pricing of surgeries for colon cancer: patient severity and market factors.

    PubMed

    Dor, Avi; Koroukian, Siran; Xu, Fang; Stulberg, Jonah; Delaney, Conor; Cooper, Gregory

    2012-12-01

    This study examined effects of health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration, hospital competition, and patient severity on the uptake of laparoscopic colectomy and its price relative to open surgery for colon cancer. The MarketScan Database (data from 2002-2007) was used to identify admissions for privately insured colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic or open partial colectomy (n = 1035 and n = 6389, respectively). Patient and health plan characteristics were retrieved from these data; HMO market penetration rates and an index of hospital market concentration, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI), were derived from national databases. Logistic and logarithmic regressions were used to examine the odds of having laparoscopic colectomy, effect of covariates on colectomy prices, and the differential price of laparoscopy. Adoption of laparoscopy was highly sensitive to market forces, with a 10% increase in HMO penetration leading to a 10.9% increase in the likelihood of undergoing laparoscopic colectomy (adjusted odds ratio = 1.109; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.062, 1.158) and a 10% increase in HHI resulting in 6.6% lower likelihood (adjusted odds ratio = 0.936; 95% CI = 0.880, 0.996). Price models indicated that the price of laparoscopy was 7.6% lower than that of open surgery (transformed coefficient = 0.927; 95% CI = 0.895, 0.960). A 10% increase in HMO penetration was associated with 1.6% lower price (transformed coefficient = 0.985; 95% CI = 0.977, 0.992), whereas a 10% increase in HHI was associated with 1.6% higher price (transformed coefficient = 1.016; 95% CI = 1.006, 1.027; P < .001 for all comparisons). Laparoscopy was significantly associated with lower hospital prices. Moreover, laparoscopic surgery may result in cost savings, while market pressures contribute to its adoption. Copyright © 2012 American Cancer Society.

  16. Pricing of Surgeries for Colon Cancer: Patient Severity and Market Factors

    PubMed Central

    Dor, Avi; Koroukian, Siran; Xu, Fang; Stulberg, Jonah; Delaney, Conor; Cooper, Gregory

    2012-01-01

    Study Objective Examine effects of HMO penetration, hospital competition, and patient severity on the uptake of laparoscopic colectomy and its price relative to open surgery for colon cancer. Methods We used 2002-2007 the MarketScan Database to identify admissions for privately insured colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic or open partial colectomy (n=1,035 and n=6,389, respectively). Patient and health plan characteristics were retrieved from these data; HMO market penetration rates and an index of hospital market concentration, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), were derived from national databases. Logistic and logarithmic regressions were used to examine the odds of having laparoscopic colectomy, effect of covariates on colectomy prices, and the differential price of laparoscopy. Results Adoption of laparoscopy was highly sensitive to market forces, with a 10% increase in HMO penetration leading to a 10.3% increase in the likelihood of undergoing laparoscopic colectomy (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.109, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.062, 1.158), and a 10% increase in HHI resulting in 6.6% lower likelihood (AOR: 0.936 (0.880, 0.996)). Price models indicated that the price of laparoscopy was 7.6% lower than for open surgery (transformed coefficient (Coeff): 0.927 (0.895, 0.960)). A 10% increase in HMO penetration was associated with 1.6% lower price (Coeff: 0.985 (0.977, 0.992)), while a 10% increase in HHI was associated with 1.6% higher price (Coeff: 1.016 (1.006, 1.027), p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Conclusions Laparoscopy was significantly associated with lower hospital prices. Moreover, Impact Laparoscopic surgery may result in cost savings, while market pressures contribute to its adoption. PMID:22569703

  17. The price impact asymmetry of institutional trading in the Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin

    2012-04-01

    The asymmetric price impact between the institutional purchases and sales of 32 liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market in 2003 is carefully studied. We analyze the price impact in both drawup and drawdown trends with consecutive positive and negative daily price changes, and test the dependence of the price impact asymmetry on the market condition. For most of the stocks, institutional sales have a larger price impact than institutional purchases, and a larger impact of institutional purchases exists only in a few stocks with primarily increasing tendencies. We further study the mean return of trades surrounding institutional transactions, and find that the asymmetric behavior also exists before and after institutional transactions. A new variable is proposed to investigate the order book structure, and it can partially explain the price impact of institutional transactions. A linear regression for the price impact of institutional transactions further confirms our finding that institutional sales primarily have a larger price impact than institutional purchases in the bearish year 2003.

  18. How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reboredo, Juan C.; Rivera-Castro, Miguel A.; Miranda, José G. V.; García-Rubio, Raquel

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we analyse price fluctuations with the aim of measuring how long the market takes to adjust prices to weak-form efficiency, i.e., how long it takes for prices to adjust to a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent of 0.5. The Hurst exponent is estimated for different time horizons using detrended fluctuation analysis-a method suitable for non-stationary series with trends-in order to identify at which time scale the Hurst exponent is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Using high-frequency share price, exchange rate and stock data, we show how price dynamics exhibited important deviations from efficiency for time periods of up to 15 min; thereafter, price dynamics was consistent with a geometric Brownian motion. The intraday behaviour of the series also indicated that price dynamics at trade opening and close was hardly consistent with efficiency, which would enable investors to exploit price deviations from fundamental values. This result is consistent with intraday volume, volatility and transaction time duration patterns.

  19. Market review - Market values summary/August market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-09-01

    This article is the August 1995 uranium market review. During this reporting period, there were three transactions in the long-term concentrates sector, no transactions in the UF6 market, and limited activity in the spot conversion market and the enrichment services market. Active supply rose, as did active demand. Prices were stable to slightly increasing.

  20. Validity of urinary monoamine assay sales under the "spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model".

    PubMed

    Hinz, Marty; Stein, Alvin; Uncini, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Spot baseline urinary monoamine assays have been used in medicine for over 50 years as a screening test for monoamine-secreting tumors, such as pheochromocytoma and carcinoid syndrome. In these disease states, when the result of a spot baseline monoamine assay is above the specific value set by the laboratory, it is an indication to obtain a 24-hour urine sample to make a definitive diagnosis. There are no defined applications where spot baseline urinary monoamine assays can be used to diagnose disease or other states directly. No peer-reviewed published original research exists which demonstrates that these assays are valid in the treatment of individual patients in the clinical setting. Since 2001, urinary monoamine assay sales have been promoted for numerous applications under the "spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model". There is no published peer-reviewed original research that defines the scientific foundation upon which the claims for these assays are made. On the contrary, several articles have been published that discredit various aspects of the model. To fill the void, this manuscript is a comprehensive review of the scientific foundation and claims put forth by laboratories selling urinary monoamine assays under the spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model.

  1. Launch prices for new pharmaceuticals in the heavily regulated and subsidized Spanish market, 1995-2007.

    PubMed

    Puig-Junoy, Jaume; López-Valcárcel, Beatriz González

    2014-06-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the explanatory factors affecting introductory prices of new pharmaceuticals in a heavily regulated and highly subsidized market. We collect a data set consisting of all new chemical entities launched in Spain between 1997 and 2005, and model launch prices following an extended version of previous economic models. We found that, unlike in the US and Sweden, therapeutically "innovative" products are not overpriced relative to "imitative" ones after having controlled for other factors. Price setting is mainly used as a mechanism to adjust for inflation independently of the degree of innovation. The drugs that enter through the centralized EMA approval procedure are overpriced, which may be a consequence of market globalization and international price setting. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Marketing environment dynamics and implications for pricing strategies: the case of home health care.

    PubMed

    Ponsford, B J; Barlow, D

    1999-01-01

    This research reviews the factors affecting the pricing or rate schedules of home health care agencies. A large number of factors affect costs and thus rate structures. The major factors include reimbursement structures with accompanying discount structures, administrative burdens, and risks. Channel issues include bargaining power, competition, and size. Staffing issues affect pricing and product through the provider level, productivity, and quality outcomes. Physician and patient issues include quality concerns and choices. These factors are discussed in light of overall marketing strategy and the interaction of pricing with other marketing controllables such as product, place/distribution, and promotion. Economic and accounting principles are also reviewed with consideration to understanding direct and indirect costs in order to enable negotiators to effectively price health care services.

  3. Association of market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices: 1999 through 2001.

    PubMed

    McCue, Michael J; Kim, Tae Hyun

    2005-01-01

    Since the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, there has been a decline in the number of hospital acquisitions. Using data from 1999 through 2001, we examined the relationship between market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices. Using an ordinary least squares regression model, we found that acquiring multihospital systems paid a higher price for larger hospitals with fewer unoccupied beds and greater profitability. Although only marginally significant, we also found that acquiring hospital systems paid a higher purchase price for hospitals in near urban markets and for hospitals located in the Central region of the United States. From a policy standpoint, we found no significant difference in the purchase price paid between for-profit and nonprofit hospitals.

  4. Information-driven trade and price-volume relationship in artificial stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xinghua; Liu, Xin; Liang, Xiaobei

    2015-07-01

    The positive relation between stock price changes and trading volume (price-volume relationship) as a stylized fact has attracted significant interest among finance researchers and investment practitioners. However, until now, consensus has not been reached regarding the causes of the relationship based on real market data because extracting valuable variables (such as information-driven trade volume) from real data is difficult. This lack of general consensus motivates us to develop a simple agent-based computational artificial stock market where extracting the necessary variables is easy. Based on this model and its artificial data, our tests have found that the aggressive trading style of informed agents can produce a price-volume relationship. Therefore, the information spreading process is not a necessary condition for producing price-volume relationship.

  5. Pharma Pricing & Market Access Europe 2016--Health Network Communications' Tenth Annual Conference (February 23-25, 2016--London, UK).

    PubMed

    D'Souza, P

    2016-03-01

    Tighter national budgets and escalating drug prices continue to present challenges for pharmaceutical market access strategies and societal cost of care. As pharmaceutical companies and medical governmental advisory organizations enter tougher negotiations, hospital trusts and other dispensary firms face barriers to receiving the best medical treatment, and as a result patient access is limited. The 2016 HealthNetwork Communications' Pharma Pricing & Market Access Europe meeting brought together pharmaceutical, medical governmental advisory and stakeholders and market access/pricing consultants, to encourage discussions and negotiations into how to improve the drug pricing system and consequential market access strategies while achieving the respective reimbursement and affordability objectives.

  6. Market organization and animal genetic resource management: a revealed preference analysis of sheep pricing.

    PubMed

    Tindano, K; Moula, N; Leroy, P; Traoré, A; Antoine-Moussiaux, N

    2017-03-15

    Farm animal genetic resources are threatened worldwide. Participation in markets, while representing a crucial way out of poverty for many smallholders, affects genetic management choices with associated sustainability concerns. This paper proposes a contextualized study of the interactions between markets and animal genetic resources management, in the case of sheep markets in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. It focusses on the organization of marketing chains and the valuation of genetic characteristics by value chain actors. Marketing chain characterization was tackled through semi-structured interviews with 25 exporters and 15 butchers, both specialized in sheep. Moreover, revealed preference methods were applied to analyse the impact of animals' attributes on market pricing. Data were collected from 338 transactions during three different periods: Eid al-Adha, Christmas and New Year period, and a neutral period. The neutral period is understood as a period not close to any event likely to influence the demand for sheep. The results show that physical characteristics such as live weight, height at withers and coat colour have a strong influence on the animals' prices. Live weight has also had an increasing marginal impact on price. The different markets (local butcher, feasts, export market, sacrifices) represent distinct demands for genetic characteristics, entailing interesting consequences for animal genetic resource management. Any breeding programme should therefore take this diversity into account to allow this sector to contribute better to a sustainable development of the country.

  7. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    PubMed Central

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  8. Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

    PubMed

    Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

  9. Prices need no preferences: social trends determine decisions in experimental markets for pain relief.

    PubMed

    Vlaev, Ivo; Seymour, Ben; Chater, Nick; Winston, Joel S; Yoshida, Wako; Wright, Nicholas; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Ray

    2014-01-01

    A standard view in health economics is that, although there is no market that determines the "prices" for health states, people can nonetheless associate health states with monetary values (or other scales, such as quality adjusted life year [QALYs] and disability adjusted life year [DALYs]). Such valuations can be used to shape health policy, and a major research challenge is to elicit such values from people; creating experimental "markets" for health states is a theoretically attractive way to address this. We explore the possibility that this framework may be fundamentally flawed-because there may not be any stable values to be revealed. Instead, perhaps people construct ad hoc values, influenced by contextual factors, such as the observed decisions of others. The participants bid to buy relief from equally painful electrical shocks to the leg and arm in an experimental health market based on an interactive second-price auction. Thirty subjects were randomly assigned to two experimental conditions where the bids by "others" were manipulated to follow increasing or decreasing price trends for one, but not the other, pain. After the auction, a preference test asked the participants to choose which pain they prefer to experience for a longer duration. Players remained indifferent between the two pain-types throughout the auction. However, their bids were differentially attracted toward what others bid for each pain, with overbidding during decreasing prices and underbidding during increasing prices. Health preferences are dissociated from market prices, which are strongly referenced to others' choices. This suggests that the price of health care in a free-market has the capacity to become critically detached from people's underlying preferences. 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  10. High Generic Drug Prices and Market Competition: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Dave, Chintan V; Kesselheim, Aaron S; Fox, Erin R; Qiu, Peihua; Hartzema, Abraham

    2017-08-01

    Prices for some generic drugs have increased in recent years, adversely affecting patients who rely on them. To determine the association between market competition levels and the change in generic drug prices in the United States. Retrospective cohort study. Prescription claims from commercial health plans between 2008 and 2013. The 5.5 years of data were divided into 11 study periods of 6 months each. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)-calculated by summing the squares of individual manufacturers' market shares, with higher values indicating a less competitive market-and average drug prices were estimated for the generic drugs in each period. The HHI value estimated in the baseline period (first half of 2008) was modeled as a fixed covariate. Models estimated price changes over time by level of competition, adjusting for drug shortages, market size, and dosage forms. From 1.08 billion prescription claims, a cohort of 1120 generic drugs was identified. After adjustment, drugs with quadropoly (HHI value of 2500, indicating relatively high levels of competition), duopoly (HHI value of 5000), near-monopoly (HHI value of 8000), and monopoly (HHI value of 10 000) levels of baseline competition were associated with price changes of -31.7% (95% CI, -34.4% to -28.9%), -11.8% (CI, -18.6% to -4.4%), 20.1% (CI, 5.5% to 36.6%), and 47.4% (CI, 25.4% to 73.2%), respectively, over the study period. Study findings may not be generalizable to drugs that became generic after 2008. Market competition levels were associated with a change in generic drug prices. Such measurements may be helpful in identifying older prescription drugs at higher risk for price change in the future. None.

  11. Tactical Buying Decisions for Strategic Petroleum Reserve Spot Procurements: The Tunnel Theory,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Procurement of crude oil on the spot market at minimum prices requires economic analysis which focuses on the discovery of market price levels and... crude oil market. Variables suggested by the economic theory of raw material and commodity markets are investigated. The demand for incremental (spot...volumes of crude oil is found to be derived from the demand for incremental volumes of petroleum products. Insights gained from this analysis are

  12. Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

    The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

  13. Multifractality of sectoral price indices: Hurst signature analysis of Cantillon effects in disequilibrium factor markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulligan, Robert F.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents Hurst exponent signatures from time series of aggregate price indices for the US over the 1975-2011 time period. Though all highly aggregated, these indices include both broad measures of consumer and producer prices. The constellation of prices evolves as a complex system throughout processes of production and distribution, culminating in the final delivery of output to consumers. Massive feedback characterizes this system, where the demand for consumable output determines the demand for the inputs used to produce it, and supply scarcities for the necessary inputs in turn determine the supply of the final product. Prices in both factor and output markets are jointly determined by interdependent supply and demand conditions. Fractal examination of the interplay among market prices would be of interest regardless, but added interest arises from the consideration of how these markets respond to external shocks over the business cycle, particularly monetary expansion. Because the initial impact of monetary injection is localized in specific sectors, the way the impact on prices diffuses throughout the economy is of special interest.

  14. The impact of competition on quality and prices in the English care homes market.

    PubMed

    Forder, Julien; Allan, Stephen

    2014-03-01

    This study assesses the impact of competition on quality and price in the English care/nursing homes market. Considering the key institutional features, we use a theoretical model to assess the conditions under which further competition could increase or reduce quality. A dataset comprising the population of 10,000 care homes was used. We constructed distance/travel-time weighted competition measures. Instrumental variable estimations, used to account for the endogeneity of competition, showed quality and price were reduced by greater competition. Further analyses suggested that the negative quality effect worked through the effect on price - higher competition reduces revenue which pushes down quality.

  15. Pricing of range accrual swap in the quantum finance Libor Market Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Tang, Pan; Cao, Yang

    2014-05-01

    We study the range accrual swap in the quantum finance formulation of the Libor Market Model (LMM). It is shown that the formulation can exactly price the path dependent instrument. An approximate price is obtained as an expansion in the volatility of Libor. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to study the nonlinear domain of the model and determine the range of validity of the approximate formula. The price of accrual swap is analyzed by generating daily sample values by simulating a two dimension Gaussian quantum field.

  16. Determining the Effects on Residential Electricity Prices and Carbon Emissions of Electricity Market Restructuring in Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahangir, Junaid Bin

    When electricity restructuring initiatives were introduced in Alberta, and finalized with the institution of retail electricity market competition in 2001, it was argued that the changes would deliver lower electricity prices to residential consumers. However, residential electricity prices in Alberta increased dramatically in 2001, and have never returned to their pre-restructuring levels. Proponents of restructuring argue that electricity prices would have been even higher under continued regulation, citing the effect of considerably higher natural gas prices and the roles of other variables. However, many Alberta residential electricity consumers tend to attribute their higher electricity prices to factors such as market power and manipulation associated with restructuring. Since the effects of restructuring on electricity prices cannot be evaluated by simply comparing prices before and after it occurred, the main objective of this thesis is to determine what electricity prices would have been under continued regulation, and to compare them with what was actually observed. To determine these counterfactual electricity prices, a structural model of the determinants of Alberta residential electricity prices is developed, estimated for the prerestructuring period, and used to forecast (counterfactual) prices in the postrestructuring period. However, in forming these forecasts it is necessary to separately account for changes in explanatory variables that could be viewed as occurring due to the restructuring (endogenous) from those changes that would Since the effects of restructuring on electricity prices cannot be evaluated by simply comparing prices before and after it occurred, the main objective of this thesis is to determine what electricity prices would have been under continued regulation, and to compare them with what was actually observed. To determine these counterfactual electricity prices, a structural model of the determinants of Alberta residential

  17. Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

    2002-01-01

    Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

  18. Evaluation of market samples of 'Yashada bhasma' using 'Namburi Phased Spot Test'.

    PubMed

    Bhojashettar, Santhosh; Poornima, B T; Jadar, P G

    2011-04-01

    Yashada bhasma (Calx of Yashada i.e. Zinc) which has its main indication in Prameha (Diabetes) and Netra vikaras (Eye disorders) was prepared according to the prescription in the Ayurvedic classics and subjected to various bhasma parikshas, including the Namburi Phased Spot Test (NPST), one of the qualitative tests described for various Ayurvedic preparations. NPST helps differentiate between, and thus identify, various bhasmas. It depends upon the pattern of the spot, which develops after a specific chemical reaction. Three market samples of Yashada bhasma, which were said to be Parada marita (incinerated using Mercury), were also subjected to the above tests and results compared. The various bhasmas exhibited marked differences in colour, and though NPST yielded desired results for all the samples, there were differences in their spot patterns and colour. The bhasma prepared in our department produced the most accurate results.

  19. Evaluation of market samples of ‘Yashada bhasma’ using ‘Namburi Phased Spot Test′

    PubMed Central

    Bhojashettar, Santhosh; Poornima, B.T.; Jadar, P.G.

    2011-01-01

    Yashada bhasma (Calx of Yashada i.e. Zinc) which has its main indication in Prameha (Diabetes) and Netra vikaras (Eye disorders) was prepared according to the prescription in the Ayurvedic classics and subjected to various bhasma parikshas, including the Namburi Phased Spot Test (NPST), one of the qualitative tests described for various Ayurvedic preparations. NPST helps differentiate between, and thus identify, various bhasmas. It depends upon the pattern of the spot, which develops after a specific chemical reaction. Three market samples of Yashada bhasma, which were said to be Parada marita (incinerated using Mercury), were also subjected to the above tests and results compared. The various bhasmas exhibited marked differences in colour, and though NPST yielded desired results for all the samples, there were differences in their spot patterns and colour. The bhasma prepared in our department produced the most accurate results. PMID:21760691

  20. Comparing Generic Drug Markets in Europe and the United States: Prices, Volumes, and Spending.

    PubMed

    Wouters, Olivier J; Kanavos, Panos G; McKEE, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Policy Points: Our study indicates that there are opportunities for cost savings in generic drug markets in Europe and the United States. Regulators should make it easier for generic drugs to reach the market. Regulators and payers should apply measures to stimulate price competition among generic drugmakers and to increase generic drug use. To meaningfully evaluate policy options, it is important to analyze historical context and understand why similar initiatives failed previously. Rising drug prices are putting pressure on health care budgets. Policymakers are assessing how they can save money through generic drugs. We compared generic drug prices and market shares in 13 European countries, using data from 2013, to assess the amount of variation that exists between countries. To place these results in context, we reviewed evidence from recent studies on the prices and use of generics in Europe and the United States. We also surveyed peer-reviewed studies, gray literature, and books published since 2000 to (1) outline existing generic drug policies in European countries and the United States; (2) identify ways to increase generic drug use and to promote price competition among generic drug companies; and (3) explore barriers to implementing reform of generic drug policies, using a historical example from the United States as a case study. The prices and market shares of generics vary widely across Europe. For example, prices charged by manufacturers in Switzerland are, on average, more than 2.5 times those in Germany and more than 6 times those in the United Kingdom, based on the results of a commonly used price index. The proportion of prescriptions filled with generics ranges from 17% in Switzerland to 83% in the United Kingdom. By comparison, the United States has historically had low generic drug prices and high rates of generic drug use (84% in 2013), but has in recent years experienced sharp price increases for some off-patent products. There are policy

  1. The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

    SciTech Connect

    Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.; Fisseha, Kibret S.

    2014-10-14

    In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the US market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.

  2. Predicting inter-season price jumps in the market for temporary water allocations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plummer, Jonathan; Schreider, Sergei

    2015-06-01

    The market for temporary water allocations in the Northern Victoria Regulated river system has matured to the point where new instruments to manage risk can be of benefit to water users. One of these instruments could be a series of option contracts issued by the Water Authority. However a serious impediment to the introduction of options is the variation in prices across seasons. Prices jump between the end of one season and the beginning of the next mean that appropriate option strike prices cannot be determined until a period of trading in the new season allows price discovery to take place. This prevents an options market being available at the beginning of the season when it is most useful to irrigators. In this paper we look at winter rainfall for the town of Jamieson, upstream of Lake Eildon and the volume of water in Lake Eildon as predictors of the price of temporary water allocations at the beginning of the irrigation season. We develop a climate driven regression model which allows us to link the inter-seasonal jumps with the biophysical parameters of the system. By better understanding the factors dictating the size of the price jumps between seasons options can be developed that are not restricted to the current season. We also consider the implications of the infrastructure upgrades currently underway and recent policy changes on the market for temporary water allocations. The carryover policy which allows water to be kept for use in subsequent seasons, and the reserve policy, which is designed to allow the delivery of initial allocations and water carried over at the start of the irrigation season each year, are two recent policy innovations. These policies should smooth prices and reduce the jump in prices that have been seen between irrigation seasons.

  3. Customer Strategies for Responding to Day-Ahead Market HourlyElectricity Pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Chuck; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Boisvert, Dick; Cappers, Peter; Pratt, Donna; Butkins, Kim

    2005-08-25

    Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated as an economically efficient means to send price signals to customers to promote demand response (DR) (Borenstein 2002, Borenstein 2005, Ruff 2002). However, limited information exists that can be used to judge how effectively RTP actually induces DR, particularly in the context of restructured electricity markets. This report describes the second phase of a study of how large, non-residential customers' adapted to default-service day-ahead hourly pricing. The customers are located in upstate New York and served under Niagara Mohawk, A National Grid Company (NMPC)'s SC-3A rate class. The SC-3A tariff is a type of RTP that provides firm, day-ahead notice of hourly varying prices indexed to New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead market prices. The study was funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC)'s PIER program through the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC). NMPC's is the first and longest-running default-service RTP tariff implemented in the context of retail competition. The mix of NMPC's large customers exposed to day-ahead hourly prices is roughly 30% industrial, 25% commercial and 45% institutional. They have faced periods of high prices during the study period (2000-2004), thereby providing an opportunity to assess their response to volatile hourly prices. The nature of the SC-3A default service attracted competitive retailers offering a wide array of pricing and hedging options, and customers could also participate in demand response programs implemented by NYISO. The first phase of this study examined SC-3A customers' satisfaction, hedging choices and price response through in-depth customer market research and a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) demand model (Goldman et al. 2004). This second phase was undertaken to answer questions that remained unresolved and to quantify price response to a higher level of granularity. We accomplished these objectives with a second customer

  4. Exponential model for option prices: Application to the Brazilian market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Carvalho, J. A.; Vasconcelos, G. L.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper we report an empirical analysis of the Ibovespa index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange and its respective option contracts. We compare the empirical data on the Ibovespa options with two option pricing models, namely the standard Black-Scholes model and an empirical model that assumes that the returns are exponentially distributed. It is found that at times near the option expiration date the exponential model performs better than the Black-Scholes model, in the sense that it fits the empirical data better than does the latter model.

  5. Determinants of heroin retail prices in metropolitan France: Discounts, purity and local markets.

    PubMed

    Lahaie, Emmanuel; Janssen, Eric; Cadet-Taïrou, Agnès

    2016-09-01

    Field studies have indicated a recent increase in heroin availability and use in France, and yet very little is known about the mechanisms underlying heroin retail prices. This paper offers a first attempt at identifying the determinants of heroin pricing, to measure quantity discounts and assess the influence of purity on street prices, while controlling for a geographical effect. Data on heroin samples were collected during 2011 in seven urban areas of metropolitan France. Ordinary least squares regression was used to model the associations between price, quantity, purity and other independent variables. Quantity remains the most influential variable on heroin pricing. We estimate that a 10% increase in the size of a transaction leads to a 2.3% decrease in the unit price. Assessed purity proved to be significant, although in modest proportion. Sociodemographic characteristics, such as gender, users' experience and relationships with dealers, proved to be insignificant. Heroin retail prices vary according to a geographical gradient related to the routes of entry and distribution. As a credence good, heroin retail prices in France are affected by more than simply the traditional supply and demand relationship. The results of this study also underline the limitations of a quantitative framework and should be complemented by further ethnographic research to obtain an in-depth understanding of local markets. Policies should be designed to better take local disparities into account.[Lahaie E, Janssen E, Cadet-Taïrou A. Determinants of heroin retail prices in metropolitan France:Discounts, purity and local markets. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:597-604]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  6. Dynamical model of financial markets: fluctuating ‘temperature’ causes intermittent behavior of price changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozuki, Naoki; Fuchikami, Nobuko

    2003-11-01

    We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential, where the ‘temperature’ fluctuates slowly. The model generally yields a fat-tailed distribution of the price change. Specifically a Tsallis distribution is obtained if the inverse temperature is χ2-distributed, which qualitatively agrees with intraday data of foreign exchange market. The so-called ‘volatility’, a quantity indicating the risk or activity in financial markets, corresponds to the temperature of markets and its fluctuation leads to intermittency.

  7. Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response Market Potential:Integrating Price and Customer Behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers, Peter

    2007-06-01

    ABSTRACT=Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized asan essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DRmarket potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DRavailable in a given area, from which market segments. Several recent DRmarket potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniquesused to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study,we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies;recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large,non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to accountfor behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticityvalues from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years,and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer marketpotential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We recommendan elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely oncusto!

  8. Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Zarnikau, J.; Olson, A.; Jones, R.; Chait, M.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

    2014-10-01

    Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster, triggered by the March 11, 2011 earthquake, has led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. To maintain resource adequacy for a grid's reliable operation, one option is to expand conventional generation, whose marginal unit is typically fueled by natural-gas. Two timely and relevant questions thus arise for a deregulated wholesale electricity market: (1) what is the likely price increase due to a nuclear plant shutdown? and (2) what can be done to mitigate the price increase? To answer these questions, we perform a regression analysis of a large sample of hourly real-time electricity-market price data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) for the 33-month sample period of April 2010-December 2012. Our analysis indicates that the 2013 shutdown of the state's San Onofre plant raised the CAISO real-time hourly market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH, and that the price increases could have been offset by a combination of demand reduction, increasing solar generation, and increasing wind generation.

  9. Stochastic processes in the social sciences: Markets, prices and wealth distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero, Natalia E.

    The present work uses statistical mechanics tools to investigate the dynamics of markets, prices, trades and wealth distribution. We studied the evolution of market dynamics in different stages of historical development by analyzing commodity prices from two distinct periods ancient Babylon, and medieval and early modern England. We find that the first-digit distributions of both Babylon and England commodity prices follow Benfords law, indicating that the data represent empirical observations typically arising from a free market. Further, we find that the normalized prices of both Babylon and England agricultural commodities are characterized by stretched exponential distributions, and exhibit persistent correlations of a power law type over long periods of up to several centuries, in contrast to contemporary markets. Our findings suggest that similar market interactions may underlie the dynamics of ancient agricultural commodity prices, and that these interactions may remain stable across centuries. To further investigate the dynamics of markets we present the analogy between transfers of money between individuals and the transfer of energy through particle collisions by means of the kinetic theory of gases. We introduce a theoretical framework of how the micro rules of trading lead to the emergence of income and wealth distribution. Particularly, we study the effects of different types of distribution of savings/investments among individuals in a society and different welfare/subsidies redistribution policies. Results show that while considering savings propensities the models approach empirical distributions of wealth quite well the effect of redistribution better captures specific features of the distributions which earlier models failed to do; moreover the models still preserve the exponential decay observed in empirical income distributions reported by tax data and surveys.

  10. Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.

    2007-03-01

    We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.

  11. Optimization models and techniques for implementation and pricing of electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madrigal Martinez, Marcelino

    Vertically integrated electric power systems extensively use optimization models and solution techniques to guide their optimal operation and planning. The advent of electric power systems re-structuring has created needs for new optimization tools and the revision of the inherited ones from the vertical integration era into the market environment. This thesis presents further developments on the use of optimization models and techniques for implementation and pricing of primary electricity markets. New models, solution approaches, and price setting alternatives are proposed. Three different modeling groups are studied. The first modeling group considers simplified continuous and discrete models for power pool auctions driven by central-cost minimization. The direct solution of the dual problems, and the use of a Branch-and-Bound algorithm to solve the primal, allows to identify the effects of disequilibrium, and different price setting alternatives over the existence of multiple solutions. It is shown that particular pricing rules worsen the conflict of interest that arise when multiple solutions exist under disequilibrium. A price-setting alternative based on dual variables is shown to diminish such conflict. The second modeling group considers the unit commitment problem. An interior-point/cutting-plane method is proposed for the solution of the dual problem. The new method has better convergence characteristics and does not suffer from the parameter tuning drawback as previous methods The robustness characteristics of the interior-point/cutting-plane method, combined with a non-uniform price setting alternative, show that the conflict of interest is diminished when multiple near optimal solutions exist. The non-uniform price setting alternative is compared to a classic average pricing rule. The last modeling group concerns to a new type of linear network-constrained clearing system models for daily markets for power and spinning reserve. A new model and

  12. Harried LP-gas marketers recount the recent price/supply nightmare

    SciTech Connect

    Prowler, S

    1990-02-01

    This article presents a survey of several LP-gas marketers, who discuss how their companies responded to the propane fuel crisis during the winter of 1989-1990. wholesale and retail pricing, as well as consumer response during this period are described. Supply strategies for the future are discussed.

  13. Natural Gas Marketer Prices and Sales To Residential and Commercial Customers: 2002-2005

    EIA Publications

    2007-01-01

    This report compares residential and commercial prices collected from natural gas marketers and local distribution companies in Maryland, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania from 2002-2005 and gives the history and status of natural gas choice programs in those states.

  14. Harem: Hardwood lumber remanufacturing program for maxmizing value based on size, grade and current market prices

    Treesearch

    C.J. Schwehm; P. Klinkhachorn; Charles W. McMillin; Henry A. Huber

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes an expert system computer program which will determine the optimum way to edge and trim a hardwood board so as to yield the highest dollar value based on the grade, size of each board, and current market prices. The program uses the Automated Hardwood Lumber Grading Program written by Klinkhachorn, et al. for determining the grade of each board...

  15. A hedonic price analysis of the outfitter market for trout fishing in the Rocky Mountain West

    Treesearch

    Heidi M. Pitts; Jennifer A. Thacher; Patricia A. Champ; Robert P. Berrens

    2012-01-01

    Trout is the most popular sport fish in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico where fishing outfitters bring revenues to many rural economies. This article uses the hedonic pricing method on a monopolistically competitive outfitter market in those four states to examine angler values for trout fishing characteristics. A total of 1,685 fishing trip observations...

  16. Controlling market power and price spikes in electricity networks: Demand-side bidding

    PubMed Central

    Rassenti, Stephen J.; Smith, Vernon L.; Wilson, Bart J.

    2003-01-01

    In this article we report an experiment that examines how demand-side bidding can discipline generators in a market for electric power. First we develop a treatment without demand-side bidding; two large firms are allocated baseload and intermediate cost generators such that either firm might unilaterally withhold the capacity of its intermediate cost generators from the market to benefit from the supracompetitive prices that would result from only selling its baseload units. In a converse treatment, ownership of some of the intermediate cost generators is transferred from each of these firms to two other firms such that no one firm could unilaterally restrict output to spawn supracompetitive prices. Having established a well controlled data set with price spikes paralleling those observed in the naturally occurring economy, we also extend the design to include demand-side bidding. We find that demand-side bidding completely neutralizes the exercise of market power and eliminates price spikes even in the presence of structural market power. PMID:16576750

  17. Controlling market power and price spikes in electricity networks: Demand-side bidding.

    PubMed

    Rassenti, Stephen J; Smith, Vernon L; Wilson, Bart J

    2003-03-04

    In this article we report an experiment that examines how demand-side bidding can discipline generators in a market for electric power. First we develop a treatment without demand-side bidding; two large firms are allocated baseload and intermediate cost generators such that either firm might unilaterally withhold the capacity of its intermediate cost generators from the market to benefit from the supracompetitive prices that would result from only selling its baseload units. In a converse treatment, ownership of some of the intermediate cost generators is transferred from each of these firms to two other firms such that no one firm could unilaterally restrict output to spawn supracompetitive prices. Having established a well controlled data set with price spikes paralleling those observed in the naturally occurring economy, we also extend the design to include demand-side bidding. We find that demand-side bidding completely neutralizes the exercise of market power and eliminates price spikes even in the presence of structural market power.

  18. Trends in water market activity and price in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Thomas C.

    2006-09-01

    Over 2000 water market transactions that occurred in the western United States from 1990 to 2003 were examined to learn who sold to whom and for what purpose, how much water was involved, and how much it sold for. The transactions show that much more water changes hands via leases than via sales of water rights. Public agencies and irrigators are the most common lessors, with lessees being fairly evenly distributed across types of buyers. However, with water rights sales, irrigators are by far the most common sellers and municipalities the most common buyers. Across the West in general, the number of leases has been rising in recent years, as have their prices. The prices of water right sales have also been rising, but the number of sales has not. The price of water is highly variable both within and between western states, reflecting the localized nature of the factors that affect water prices.

  19. Tannin profile of different Monastrell wines and its relation to projected market prices.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Plaza, Encarna; Olmos, Oscar; Bautista-Ortín, Ana Belén

    2016-08-01

    This study focuses on the differences or similarities in tannin composition and concentration in Monastrell wines from different wineries from the same geographic area and, within each winery, from wines elaborated based on different projected market prices, to determine whether there is any relationship between the wine tannin composition and the projected price. The tannin composition of the different wines, all of them analyzed at the same point during winemaking, indicated that those elaborated as premium wines presented higher phenol and tannin contents. The mean degree of polymerization of these wines was also positively related with the projected price, which agreed with the results obtained by size exclusion chromatography, that showed that wines with high projected prices had a higher proportion of polymeric tannins, suggesting that techniques favoring the extraction of skin tannins were mostly used in those wines projected as premium wines, probably looking for greater mouthfeel complexity.

  20. Collective Behavior of Stock Prices as a Precursor to Market Crash

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskawa, J.

    We study precursors to the global market crash that occurred onall main stock exchanges throughout the world in October 2008 about three weeks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on 15 September. We examine the collective behavior of stock returns and analyze the market mode, which is a market-wide collective mode, with constituent issues of the FTSE 100 index listed on the London Stock Exchange. Before the market crash, a sharp rise in a measure of the collective behavior was observed. It was shown to be associated with news including the words ``financial crisis". They did not impact stock prices severely alone, but they exacerbated the pessimistic mood that prevailed among stock market participants. Such news increased after the Lehman shock preceding the market crash. The variance increased along with the cumulative amount of news according to a power law.

  1. A Theory for Market Impact: How Order Flow Affects Stock Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerig, Austin

    2008-04-01

    It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the market impact of hidden orders (orders that reflect the true intention of buying and selling) that matches the empirically measured result and that reproduces some of the non-trivial and universal properties of stock returns (returns are percent changes in stock price). The theory is based on a simple premise, that the stock market can be modeled in a mechanical way - as a device that translates order flow into an uncorrelated price stream. Given that order flow is highly autocorrelated, this premise requires that market impact (1) depends on past order flow and (2) is asymmetric for buying and selling. I derive the specific form for the dependence in (1) by assuming that current liquidity responds to information about all currently active hidden orders (liquidity is a measure of the price response to a transaction of a given size). This produces an equation that suggests market impact should scale logarithmically with total order size. Using data from the London Stock Exchange I empirically measure market impact and show that the result matches the theory. Also using empirical data, I qualitatively specify the asymmetry of (2). Putting all results together, I form a model for market impact that reproduces three universal properties of stock returns - that returns are uncorrelated, that returns are distributed with a power law tail, and that the magnitude of returns is highly autocorrelated (also known as clustered volatility).

  2. Market review - Market values summary/July market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-01

    This article is the July 1995 uranium market review. Data for current uranium market is presented, and a summary of recent transactions is also given. During this reporting period, there was one concentrate deal, two transactions in the long-term natural uranium market and conversion market, and three spot market transactions in the enrichment market. Active uranium supply fell, as did demand, and prices in all sectors were relatively stable.

  3. Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Feng

    This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed

  4. A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamba, H.

    2010-09-01

    In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions.

  5. Electricity Market Module: Electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    1996-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the updates to the Electricity Financial Pricing Module (EFP) to reflect the rate impacts of nuclear decommissioning. The EFP is part of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The updates to the EFP related to nuclear decommissioning include both changes to the underlying data base and the methodology. Nuclear decommissioning refers to the activities performed to take a nuclear plant permanently out of service. The costs of nuclear decommissioning are substantial and uncertain. The recovery of these costs from ratepayers is to occur over the operating life of the nuclear plant. Utilities are obligated to make estimates of the nuclear decommissioning cost every few years. Given this estimate, utilities are to assess a charge upon ratepayers, such that over the operating life of the plant they collect sufficient funds to pay for the decommissioning. However, cost estimates for decommissioning have been increasing and it appears that utilities have not been collecting adequate funds to date. In addition, there is a real risk that many nuclear plants may be closed earlier than originally planned, further exacerbating the under collection problem. The updates performed in this project provide the EFP with the capability to analyze these issues. The remainder of this document is divided into two discussions: (1) Nuclear Decommissioning Data Base, and (2) Methodology. Appendix A contains the actual data base developed during the project.

  6. Characterization of large price variations in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansen, Anders

    2003-06-01

    Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher (> two) order correlations, they offer a better measure of real market risks than the variance or other cumulants of daily (or some other fixed time scale) of returns. Previous results have shown that the vast majority of drawdowns occurring on the major financial markets have a distribution which is well represented by a stretched exponential, while the largest drawdowns are occurring with a significantly larger rate than predicted by the bulk of the distribution and should thus be characterized as outliers (Eur. Phys. J. B 1 (1998) 141; J. Risk 2001). In the present analysis, the definition of drawdowns is generalized to coarse-grained drawdowns or so-called ε-drawdowns and a link between such ε- outliers and preceding log-periodic power law bubbles previously identified (Quantitative Finance 1 (2001) 452) is established.

  7. Wealth and price distribution by diffusive approximation in a repeated prediction market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele

    2017-04-01

    The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of a repeated prediction market model is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth difference can be reliably exploited to compute all the quantities of interest in all the acceptable parameter space. When the risk aversion of the trader is high enough, we are able to derive an explicit closed-form solution for the price distribution which is asymptotically correct.

  8. Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis of Market Clearing Price of electricity and SENSEX in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Dutta, Srimonti; Chakraborty, Sayantan

    2015-09-01

    This paper reports a study on the cross-correlation between the electric bid price and SENSEX using Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis (MF-DXA). MF-DXA is a very rigorous and robust technique for assessment of cross-correction between two non-linear time series. The study reveals power law cross-correlation between Market Clearing Price (MCP) and SENSEX which suggests that a change in the value of one can create a subjective change in the value of the other.

  9. Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

    2002-01-01

    There is a lack of depth in the current paradigm of conceptual level economic models used to evaluate the value and viability of future capital projects such as a commercial reusable launch vehicle (RLV). Current modeling methods assume a single price is charged to all customers, public or private, in order to optimize the economic metrics of interest. This assumption may not be valid given the different utility functions for space services of public and private entities. The government's requirements are generally more inflexible than its commercial counterparts. A government's launch schedules are much more rigid, choices of international launch services restricted, and launch specifications generally more stringent as well as numerous. These requirements generally make the government's demand curve more inelastic. Subsequently, a launch vehicle provider will charge a higher price (launch price per kg) to the government and may obtain a higher level of financial profit compared to an equivalent a commercial payload. This profit is not a sufficient condition to enable RLV development by itself but can help in making the financial situation slightly better. An RLV can potentially address multiple payload markets; each market has a different price elasticity of demand for both the commercial and government customer. Thus, a more resilient examination of the economic landscape requires optimization of multiple prices in which each price affects a different demand curve. Such an examination is performed here using the Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM), an MS-Excel spreadsheet-based model that attempts to couple both the demand and supply for space transportation services in the future. The demand takes the form of market assumptions (both near-term and far-term) and the supply comes from user-defined vehicles that are placed into the model. CABAM represents RLV projects as commercial endeavors with the possibility to model the effects of government

  10. An equation of state for the financial markets: connecting order flow to price formation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerig, Austin; Mike, Szabolcs; Doyne Farmer, J.

    2006-03-01

    Many of the peculiarities of price formation in the financial marketplace can be understood as the result of a few regularities in the placement and removal of trading orders. Based on a large data set from the London Stock Exchange we show that the distribution of prices where people place orders to buy or sell follows a surprisingly simple functional form that depends on the current best prices. In addition, whether or not an order is to buy or sell is described by a long-memory process, and the cancellation of orders can be described by a few simple rules. When these results are combined, simply by following the rules of the continuous double auction, the resulting simulation model produces good predictions for the distribution of price changes and transaction costs without any adjustment of parameters. We use the model to empirically derive equations of state relating order flow and the statistical properties of prices. In contrast to previous conjectures, our results demonstrate that these distributions are not universal, but rather depend on parameters of individual markets. They also show that factors other than supply and demand play an important role in price formation.

  11. Medicine prices in urban Mozambique: a public health and economic study of pharmaceutical markets and price determinants in low-income settings.

    PubMed

    Russo, Giuliano; McPake, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    It has been suggested that medicines are unaffordable in low-income countries and that world manufacturing and trade policies are responsible for high prices. This research investigates medicine prices in urban Mozambique with the objective of understanding how prices are formed and with what public health implications. The study adopts an economic framework and uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to analyse local pharmaceutical prices and markets. The research findings suggest that: (a) local mark-ups are responsible for up to two-thirds of drugs' final prices in private pharmacies; (b) statutory profit and cost ceilings are applied unevenly, due to lack of government control and collusion among suppliers; and (c) the local market appears to respond effectively to the urban population's diverse needs through its low-cost and high-cost segments, although uncertainty around the quality of generics may be inducing consumers to purchase less affordable drugs. We conclude that local markets play a larger than expected role in the determination of prices in Mozambique, and that more research is needed to address the complex issue of affordability of medicines in low-income countries. We also argue that price controls may not be the most effective way to influence access to medicines in low-income countries, and managing demand and supply towards cheaper effective drugs appears a more suitable policy option.

  12. Gold price effect on stock market: A Markov switching vector error correction approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wai, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Kun, Sek Siok

    2014-06-01

    Gold is a popular precious metal where the demand is driven not only for practical use but also as a popular investments commodity. While stock market represents a country growth, thus gold price effect on stock market behavior as interest in the study. Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models are applied to analysis the relationship between gold price and stock market changes since real financial data always exhibit regime switching, jumps or missing data through time. Besides, there are numerous specifications of Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models and this paper will compare the intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model and intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model to determine the best model representation in capturing the transition of the time series. Results have shown that gold price has a positive relationship with Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia stock market and a two regime intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model is able to provide the more significance and reliable result compare to intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models.

  13. From default probabilities to credit spreads: credit risk models explain market prices (Keynote Address)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denzler, Stefan M.; Dacorogna, Michel M.; Muller, Ulrich A.; McNeil, Alexander J.

    2005-05-01

    Credit risk models like Moody's KMV are now well established in the market and give bond managers reliable default probabilities for individual firms. Until now it has been hard to relate those probabilities to the actual credit spreads observed on the market for corporate bonds. Inspired by the existence of scaling laws in financial markets by Dacorogna et al. 2001 and DiMatteo et al. 2005 deviating from the Gaussian behavior, we develop a model that quantitatively links those default probabilities to credit spreads (market prices). The main input quantities to this study are merely industry yield data of different times to maturity and expected default frequencies (EDFs) of Moody's KMV. The empirical results of this paper clearly indicate that the model can be used to calculate approximate credit spreads (market prices) from EDFs, independent of the time to maturity and the industry sector under consideration. Moreover, the model is effective in an out-of-sample setting, it produces consistent results on the European bond market where data are scarce and can be adequately used to approximate credit spreads on the corporate level.

  14. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-01-01

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

  15. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

    PubMed

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-11-10

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

  16. Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategy and whether it undermines tobacco tax policy: the example of the UK cigarette market.

    PubMed

    Gilmore, Anna B; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Taylor, Gordon; Reed, Howard

    2013-07-01

    Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999-2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. UK. UK smokers. Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and 'ultra-low price' (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Marketing trials, marketing tricks - how to spot them and how to stop them.

    PubMed

    Matheson, Alastair

    2017-03-08

    Last this year in this journal, Barbour and colleagues reported a study of "marketing trials" in leading medical journals (Trials 2016;17:31). In this commentary I discuss their research, describe new analyses of the study cohort and consider measures to address marketing within academic medical literature. Barbour et al. sought to identify a subgroup of "marketing trials" within leading medical journals, but in reality, nearly all industry-financed trials serve marketing functions, and many exhibit marketing-related features, including biases, in their framing, methodology or reporting. I conducted new analyses of the cohort of Barbour et al., showing that most trials funded exclusively by drug manufacturers had direct involvement of the manufacturer in design, analysis and reporting, and features supportive of product seeding. However, these commercial enterprises were without exception presented to journal readers as academic-led projects, using attributional spin, which should itself be considered an important form of marketing bias. Barbour et al. correctly conclude that commercial bias in industry clinical trials articles often requires expertise to recognize, and in many cases cannot be identified from the published journal report. Several potential remedies are discussed, including independent clinical research, data sharing, improved reporting guidance, improved tools for assessing research quality, reforms to article attribution, submission checklists and new editorial standards. Medicine's journals have a responsibility to uphold rigorous scientific and reporting standards, require ready trials data access and ensure the commercial dimensions of research are brought prominently to their readers' attention. Failure to meet these responsibilities constitutes an enduring threat to the integrity of biomedical literature.

  18. Next Day Price Forecasting in Deregulated Market by Combination of Artificial Neural Network and ARIMA Time Series Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Areekul, Phatchakorn; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Urasaki, Naomitsu; Yona, Atsushi

    Electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to power producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets, when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities, respectively. This paper proposed a method to predict hourly electricity prices for next-day electricity markets by combination methodology of ARIMA and ANN models. The proposed method is examined on the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional in year 2006. Comparison of forecasting performance with the proposed ARIMA, ANN and combination (ARIMA-ANN) models are presented. Empirical results indicate that an ARIMA-ANN model can improve the price forecasting accuracy.

  19. Tax, price and cigarette smoking: evidence from the tobacco documents and implications for tobacco company marketing strategies

    PubMed Central

    Chaloupka, F; Cummings, K; Morley, C.; Horan, J.

    2002-01-01

    Methods: Data for this study come from tobacco industry documents contained in the Youth and Marketing database created by the Roswell Park Cancer Institute and available through http:// roswell.tobaccodocuments.org, supplemented with documents obtained from http://www.tobaccodocuments.org. Results: Tobacco company documents provide clear evidence on the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette smoking, describing how tax related and other price increases lead to significant reductions in smoking, particularly among young persons. This information was very important in developing the industry's pricing strategies, including the development of lower price branded generics and the pass through of cigarette excise tax increases, and in developing a variety of price related marketing efforts, including multi-pack discounts, couponing, and others. Conclusions: Pricing and price related promotions are among the most important marketing tools employed by tobacco companies. Future tobacco control efforts that aim to raise prices and limit price related marketing efforts are likely to be important in achieving reductions in tobacco use and the public health toll caused by tobacco. PMID:11893816

  20. 17 CFR 229.201 - (Item 201) Market price of and dividends on the registrant's common equity and related...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... the registrant's common equity and related stockholder matters. (a) Market information. (1)(i... equity is being traded. Where there is no established public trading market for a class of common equity... its common equity pursuant to paragraph (a)(1) of this Item, also provide market price...

  1. Open Access versus Traditional Journal Pricing: Using a Simple "Platform Market" Model to Understand Which Will Win (and Which Should)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCabe, Mark J.; Snyder, Christopher M.; Fagin, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Economists have built a theory to understand markets in which, rather than selling directly to buyers, suppliers sell through a platform, which controls prices on both sides. The theory has been applied to understand markets ranging from telephony, to credit cards, to media. In this paper, we apply the theory to the market for scholarly journals,…

  2. Open Access versus Traditional Journal Pricing: Using a Simple "Platform Market" Model to Understand Which Will Win (and Which Should)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCabe, Mark J.; Snyder, Christopher M.; Fagin, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Economists have built a theory to understand markets in which, rather than selling directly to buyers, suppliers sell through a platform, which controls prices on both sides. The theory has been applied to understand markets ranging from telephony, to credit cards, to media. In this paper, we apply the theory to the market for scholarly journals,…

  3. The market value of cultural heritage in urban areas: an application of spatial hedonic pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazrak, Faroek; Nijkamp, Peter; Rietveld, Piet; Rouwendal, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The current literature often values intangible goods like cultural heritage by applying stated preference methods. In recent years, however, the increasing availability of large databases on real estate transactions and listed prices has opened up new research possibilities and has reduced various existing barriers to applications of conventional (spatial) hedonic analysis to the real estate market. The present paper provides one of the first applications using a spatial autoregressive model to investigate the impact of cultural heritage—in particular, listed buildings and historic-cultural sites (or historic landmarks)—on the value of real estate in cities. In addition, this paper suggests a novel way of specifying the spatial weight matrix—only prices of sold houses influence current price—in identifying the spatial dependency effects between sold properties. The empirical application in the present study concerns the Dutch urban area of Zaanstad, a historic area for which over a long period of more than 20 years detailed information on individual dwellings, and their market prices are available in a GIS context. In this paper, the effect of cultural heritage is analysed in three complementary ways. First, we measure the effect of a listed building on its market price in the relevant area concerned. Secondly, we investigate the value that listed heritage has on nearby property. And finally, we estimate the effect of historic-cultural sites on real estate prices. We find that, to purchase a listed building, buyers are willing to pay an additional 26.9 %, while surrounding houses are worth an extra 0.28 % for each additional listed building within a 50-m radius. Houses sold within a conservation area appear to gain a premium of 26.4 % which confirms the existence of a `historic ensemble' effect.

  4. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  5. Sex, price and preferences: accounting for unsafe sexual practices in prostitution markets.

    PubMed

    Adriaenssens, Stef; Hendrickx, Jef

    2012-06-01

    Unsafe sexual practices are persistent in prostitution interactions: one in four contacts can be called unsafe. The determinants of this are still matter for debate. We account for the roles played by clients' preferences and the hypothetical price premium of unsafe sexual practices with the help of a large dataset of clients' self-reported commercial sexual transactions in Belgium and The Netherlands. Almost 25,000 reports were collected, representing the whole gamut of prostitution market segments. The first set of explanations consists of an analysis of the price-fixing elements of paid sex. With the help of the so-called hedonic pricing method we test for the existence of a price incentive for unsafe sex. In accordance with the results from studies in some prostitution markets in the developing world, the study replicates a significant wage penalty for condom use of an estimated 7.2 per cent, confirmed in both multilevel and fixed-effects regressions. The second part of the analysis reconstructs the demand side basis of this wage penalty: the consistent preference of clients of prostitution for unsafe sex. This study is the first to document empirically clients' preference for intercourse without a condom, with the help of a multilevel ordinal regression. © 2011 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2011 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. Price dynamics and market power in an agent-based power exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cincotti, Silvano; Guerci, Eric; Raberto, Marco

    2005-05-01

    This paper presents an agent-based model of a power exchange. Supply of electric power is provided by competing generating companies, whereas demand is assumed to be inelastic with respect to price and is constant over time. The transmission network topology is assumed to be a fully connected graph and no transmission constraints are taken into account. The price formation process follows a common scheme for real power exchanges: a clearing house mechanism with uniform price, i.e., with price set equal across all matched buyer-seller pairs. A single class of generating companies is considered, characterized by linear cost function for each technology. Generating companies compete for the sale of electricity through repeated rounds of the uniform auction and determine their supply functions according to production costs. However, an individual reinforcement learning algorithm characterizes generating companies behaviors in order to attain the expected maximum possible profit in each auction round. The paper investigates how the market competitive equilibrium is affected by market microstructure and production costs.

  7. The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

    2017-05-01

    The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

  8. Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategy and whether it undermines tobacco tax policy: the example of the UK cigarette market

    PubMed Central

    Gilmore, Anna B; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Taylor, Gordon; Reed, Howard

    2013-01-01

    Aims Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Design Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999–2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. Setting UK. Participants UK smokers. Measurements Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. Findings TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and ‘ultra-low price’ (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Conclusions Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. PMID:23445255

  9. A Perfect Price Discrimination Market Model with Production, and a (Rational) Convex Program for It

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goel, Gagan; Vazirani, Vijay

    Recent results showed PPAD-completeness of the problem of computing an equilibrium for Fisher's market model under additively separable, piecewise-linear, concave utilities. We show that introducing perfect price discrimination in this model renders its equilibrium polynomial time computable. Moreover, its set of equilibria are captured by a convex program that generalizes the classical Eisenberg-Gale program, and always admits a rational solution.

  10. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    PubMed

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  11. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  12. Optimizing Household Chlorination Marketing Strategies: A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Price and Promotion on Adoption in Haiti.

    PubMed

    Ritter, Michael; Camille, Eveline; Velcine, Christophe; Guillaume, Rose-Kerline; Lantagne, Daniele

    2017-07-01

    Household water treatment can reduce diarrheal morbidity and mortality in developing countries, but adoption remains low and supply is often unreliable. To test effects of marketing strategies on consumers and suppliers, we randomized 1,798 households in rural Haiti and collected data on purchases of a household chlorination product for 4 months. Households received randomly selected prices ($0.11-$0.56 per chlorine bottle), and half received monthly visits from sales agents. Each $0.22 drop in price increased purchases by 0.10 bottles per household per month (P < 0.001). At the mean price, each 1% drop in price increased purchases by 0.45% (elasticity = 0.45). There is suggestive evidence that household visits by some sales agents increased purchases at mid-range prices; however, the additional revenue did not offset visit cost. Choosing the lowest price and conducting visits maximizes chlorine purchase, whereas slightly raising the retail price and not conducting visits maximizes cost recovery. For the equivalent cost, price discounts increase purchases 4.2 times as much as adding visits at the current retail price. In this context, price subsidies may be a more cost-effective use of resources than household visits, though all marketing strategies tested offer cost-effective ways to achieve incremental health impact. Decisions about pricing and promotion for health products in developing countries affect health impact, cost recovery, and cost-effectiveness, and tradeoffs between these goals should be made explicit in program design.

  13. Seeking lower prices where providers are consolidated: an examination of market and policy strategies.

    PubMed

    Ginsburg, Paul B; Pawlson, L Gregory

    2014-06-01

    The ongoing consolidation between and among hospitals and physicians tends to raise prices for health care services, which poses increasing challenges for private purchasers and payers. This article examines strategies that these purchasers and payers can pursue to combat provider leverage to increase prices. It also examines opportunities for governments to either support or constrain these strategies. In response to higher prices, payers are developing new approaches to benefit and network design, some of which may be effective in moderating prices and, in some cases, volume. These approaches interact with public policy because regulation can either facilitate or constrain them. Federal and state governments also have opportunities to limit consolidation's effect on prices by developing antitrust policies that better address current market environments and by fostering the development of physician organizations that can increase competition and contract with payers under shared-savings approaches. The success of these private- and public-sector initiatives likely will determine whether governments shift from supporting competition to directly regulating payment rates. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  14. Uranium market enters slow summer period as enrichment market heats up. [Uranium market overview - May 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-06-01

    Prices slipped in the restricted and unrestricted uranium markets. Prices in the restricted market remained above the $10-benchmark, with uranium trading in the relatively narrow range of $10.05 to $10.20 per lb U3O8. Meanwhile, NUKEM detected a lowering and widening of the range in the unrestricted market; $7.10 to $7.45 per lb U3O8 was the order of the day there. The other notable feature of recent price movements has been the aggressive competition in the US spot conversion market. Many analysts have noted favorable prices for UF6 relative to components in recent market activity. Summer doldrums appear to be setting in. May and a correspondingly small number of offers are outstanding as of the end of the month. Last month NUKEM inaugurated a spot conversion price range and asked for readers' views. Those expressing an opinion were unanimous; NUKEM will publish both its longstanding estimate of new contract prices as well as the spot range. Some noted the somewhat wide range of last month's spot conversion prices. In explanation, we note that this figure encompasses activity over the full month and in the US as well as the non-US markets. Thus, it resembles the spot SWU range.

  15. Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sung Wook

    This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

  16. Strategies to enhance price and quality competition in health care: lessons learned from tracking local markets.

    PubMed

    Lesser, Cara S; Ginsburg, Paul B

    2006-06-01

    Drawing on observations from tracking changes in local health care markets over the past ten years, this article critiques two Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice recommendations to enhance price and quality competition. First, we take issue with the notion that consumers, acting independently, will drive greater competition in health care markets. Rather we suggest an important role remains for trusted agents who can analyze inherently complex price and quality information and negotiate on consumers' behalf. With aggregated information identifying providers who deliver cost-effective care, consumers would be better positioned to respond to financial incentives about where to seek care and thereby drive more meaningful competition among providers to reduce costs and improve quality. Second, we take issue with the FTC/DOJ recommendation to provide more direct subsidies to prevent distortions in competition. In the current political environment, it is not practical to provide direct subsidies for all of the unfunded care that exists in health care markets today; instead, some interference with competition may be necessary to protect cross subsidies. Barriers can be reduced, though, by revising pricing policies that have resulted in marked disparities in the relative profitability of different services.

  17. Price elasticities in the German Statutory Health Insurance market before and after the health care reform of 2009.

    PubMed

    Pendzialek, Jonas B; Danner, Marion; Simic, Dusan; Stock, Stephanie

    2015-05-01

    This paper investigates the change in price elasticity of health insurance choice in Germany after a reform of health insurance contributions. Using a comprehensive data set of all sickness funds between 2004 and 2013, price elasticities are calculated both before and after the reform for the entire market. The general price elasticity is found to be increased more than 4-fold from -0.81 prior to the reform to -3.53 after the reform. By introducing a new kind of health insurance contribution the reform seemingly increased the price elasticity of insured individuals to a more appropriate level under the given market parameters. However, further unintended consequences of the new contribution scheme were massive losses of market share for the more expensive sickness funds and therefore an undivided focus on pricing as the primary competitive element to the detriment of quality.

  18. The impact of South Korea's new drug-pricing policy on market competition among off-patent drugs.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Hye-Young; Kim, Hyungmin; Godman, Brian; Reich, Michael R

    2015-01-01

    A new pricing policy was introduced in Korea in April 2012 with the aim of strengthening competition among off-patent drugs by eliminating price gaps between originators and generics. Examine the effect of newly implemented pricing policy. Retrospectively examining the effects through extracting from the National Health Insurance claims data a 30-month panel dataset (January 2011-June 2013) containing consumption data in four major therapeutic classes (antihypertensives, lipid-lowering drugs, antiulcerants and antidepressants). Proxies for market competition were examined before and after the policy. The new pricing policy did not enhance competition among off-patent drugs. In fact, price dispersion significantly decreased as opposed to the expected change. Originator-to-generic utilization increased 6.12 times (p = 0.000) after the new policy. The new pricing policy made no impact on competition among off-patent drugs. Competition in the off-patent market cannot be enhanced unless both supply and demand side measures are coordinated.

  19. Using the market to regulate health care price: why heart hospitals will have a competitive advantage in the world of post-diagnostic related group pricing.

    PubMed

    McLean, Thomas R

    2004-01-01

    For the past 20 years, the federal government has reimbursed hospital services by administrating pricing. Simply put, under such a system the government dictated the prices of medical services. Not only has administrative pricing failed to control medical inflation, but such failure could have been predicted from a review of basic economics. Accordingly, to eliminate the deleterious effects of administrative pricing, it is not surprising that the government is gathering information on hospital quality and cost in anticipation of a return to a system in which the price for hospital services is determined by the market. For some hospitals, this will be good news because they will be able to negotiate a more favorable rate of reimbursement. Unfortunately, for some hospitals a market system will be bad news because the government is not going to negotiate a provider contract with every hospital. In short, when the government returns to a market system for pricing of hospital services, competition among hospitals is going to become even more competitive.

  20. Price analysis of multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapies marketed in the United States.

    PubMed

    Bin Sawad, Aseel; Seoane-Vazquez, Enrique; Rodriguez-Monguio, Rosa; Turkistani, Fatema

    2016-11-01

    This study assessed trends in the average wholesale price (AWP) at the market entry of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) approved by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the period 1987-2014. DMT regulatory information was derived from the FDA website. The AWPs per unit at market entry data were derived from the Red Book (Truven Health Analytics Inc.). The AWP history for each DMT was collected from its date of approval to 31 December 2014. The FDA approved label defined daily dose (DDD) for adult patients was obtained from FDA approved labels. The AWP per DDD and the AWP/DDD per year of therapy were computed. Descriptive statistics, Wilcoxon tests, t-test, and multiple linear regression were performed. The statistical significance level was set at 0.05. The FDA approved 12 multiple sclerosis (MS) DMTs, including five new drug applications (NDAs) and seven biologic license applications (BLAs) as of 31 December 2014. The FDA granted orphan designation to five DMTs. There was one DMT approved by the FDA in the 1980s, three in the 1990s, three in 2000s, and five in the period 2010-2014. The market entry inflation-adjusted AWP per DDD was $10.23 for the first DMT (mitoxantrone hydrochloride) that was approved in the 1980s. The median market entry inflation-adjusted AWP per DDD was $12.41 (interquartile range [IQR] = 4.51) for DMTs approved in the 1990s, $71.26 (IQR = 58.35) in the 2000s, and $172.56 (IQR = 84.97) in the period 2010-2014. The median AWP per DDD was statistically significantly different (p = 0.011) for orphan (median = $41.82, IQR = 56.077) compared to non-orphan drugs (median = $171.32, IQR = 199.29). Year of market entry was positively associated with DMT prices at US market entry (p = 0.01). The AWP per DDD for DMTs at market entry increased substantially over time. The increase in DMTs prices exceeded the general consumer price index.

  1. 17 CFR 229.201 - (Item 201) Market price of and dividends on the registrant's common equity and related...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... registrant may translate such prices into United States currency at the currency exchange rate in effect on... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false (Item 201) Market price of and... Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION STANDARD INSTRUCTIONS FOR FILING...

  2. Basic Knowledge for Market Principle: Approaches to the Price Coordination Mechanism by Using Optimization Theory and Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiyoshi, Eitaro; Masuda, Kazuaki

    On the basis of market fundamentalism, new types of social systems with the market mechanism such as electricity trading markets and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission trading markets have been developed. However, there are few textbooks in science and technology which present the explanation that Lagrange multipliers can be interpreted as market prices. This tutorial paper explains that (1) the steepest descent method for dual problems in optimization, and (2) Gauss-Seidel method for solving the stationary conditions of Lagrange problems with market principles, can formulate the mechanism of market pricing, which works even in the information-oriented modern society. The authors expect readers to acquire basic knowledge on optimization theory and algorithms related to economics and to utilize them for designing the mechanism of more complicated markets.

  3. Oncogenic targets, magnitude of benefit, and market pricing of antineoplastic drugs.

    PubMed

    Amir, Eitan; Seruga, Bostjan; Martinez-Lopez, Joaquin; Kwong, Ryan; Pandiella, Atanasio; Tannock, Ian F; Ocaña, Alberto

    2011-06-20

    The relationship between market pricing of new anticancer drugs and the magnitude of clinical benefit caused by them has not been reported. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that evaluated approved new agents for solid tumors by the U.S. Food and Drug administration since the year 2000 were assessed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were extracted for time-to-event end points described for each RCT. HRs were pooled for three groups: agents directed against a specific molecular target, for which the target population is selected by a biomarker (group A); less specific biologic targeted agents (group B); and chemotherapeutic agents (group C). Monthly market prices of these different drugs were compared. For overall survival (OS), the pooled HR was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.81) for group A (six drugs, six trials); it was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.83) for group B (seven drugs, 14 trials); and it was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.90) for group C (eight drugs, 12 trials). For progression-free survival (PFS), the pooled HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.36 to 0.49) for group A (six drugs, seven trials); it was 0.57 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.64) for group B (seven drugs, 14 trials); and it was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.85) for group C (six drugs, 10 trials). Tests for heterogeneity between subgroups were highly significant for PFS (P < .001) and OS (P = .02). The median monthly prices for standard doses of drugs were $5375 for group A, $5644 for group B, and $6584 for group C (P = .87). New agents with specific molecular targets are clinically the most beneficial, but their monthly market prices are not significantly different from those of other anticancer agents.

  4. International Commodity Markets, Local Food Prices and Environment in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Hintermann, B.; Higgins, N.

    2008-12-01

    The recent massive increase in food and energy prices in the past five years, coupled with the awareness of the long term challenges of climate change to small holder agriculture in Africa has brought the issue of food security for the world's poorest people to the forefront once again. Asymmetric and limited integration of local commodity markets in West Africa highlights the weak position of Africa's rural countries in the face of climate change and demographic expansion. This paper will describe the functioning of local informal food markets in West African over the past twenty years and evaluate the impact of their limited integration with each other and with global commodity markets. Satellite remote sensing of vegetation has been used as a proxy for agricultural production in economic models to improve prediction of large swings in prices from year to year due to differences in supply. As demand increases, improvements in market functioning will be necessary to counter likely increases in production variability. Increasing Africa's stability in the face of climate change will require investment in agricultural production and transportation infrastructure in order to ensure an affordable flow of food to people in these extremely poor, landlocked countries.

  5. Forecasting of Market Clearing Price by Using GA Based Neural Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Bo; Chen, Yun-Ping; Zhao, Zun-Lian; Han, Qi-Ye

    Forecasting of Market Clearing Price (MCP) is important to economic benefits of electricity market participants. To accurately forecast MCP, a novel two-stage GA-based neural network model (GA-NN) is proposed. In the first stage, GA chromosome is designed into two parts: boolean coding part for neural network topology and real coding part for connection weights. By hybrid genetic operation of selection, crossover and mutation under the criterion of error minimization between the actual output and the desired output, optimal architecture of neural network is obtained. In the second stage, gradient learning algorithm with momentum rate is imposed on neural network with optimal architecture. After learning process, optimal connection weights are obtained. The proposed model is tested on MCP forecasting in California electricity market. The test results show that GA-NN has self-adaptive ability in its topology and connection weights and can obtain more accurate MCP forecasting values than BP neural network.

  6. How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field.

    PubMed

    Sonnemann, Ulrich; Camerer, Colin F; Fox, Craig R; Langer, Thomas

    2013-07-16

    A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics.

  7. How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field

    PubMed Central

    Sonnemann, Ulrich; Camerer, Colin F.; Fox, Craig R.; Langer, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics. PMID:23818628

  8. An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houde, Jean-Francois

    In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

  9. Pricing in a two-echelon supply chain with different market powers: game theory approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esmaeilzadeh, Afshin; Taleizadeh, Ata Allah

    2016-12-01

    In this research, the optimal pricing decisions for two complementary products in a two-echelon supply chain under two scenarios are studied. The proposed supply chain in each echelon includes one retailer and two manufacturers and the same complementary products are produced. In the first scenario, we assume the unit manufacturing costs of the complementary products in each echelon are the same, while in the second one the different unit manufacturing costs are supposed and lead to demand leakage from the echelon with the higher unit manufacturing cost to the echelon with the lower unit manufacturing cost. Moreover, under the second scenario, the products with lower price are replaced with the higher price products. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of different market powers between the manufacturers and the retailer and the demand leakage on the optimal wholesale and retail prices and also on the profit of the chain. The relationships between the manufacturers and the retailer are modeled by the MS-Stackelberg and MS-Bertrand game-theoretic approach where the manufacturers are leaders and the retailers are followers.

  10. Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles-Evidence from China's Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

    2016-01-01

    We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China's stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank's policymaking.

  11. Anomalous Price Impact and the Critical Nature of Liquidity in Financial Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tóth, B.; Lempérière, Y.; Deremble, C.; de Lataillade, J.; Kockelkoren, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    2011-10-01

    We propose a dynamical theory of market liquidity that predicts that the average supply/demand profile is V shaped and vanishes around the current price. This result is generic, and only relies on mild assumptions about the order flow and on the fact that prices are, to a first approximation, diffusive. This naturally accounts for two striking stylized facts: First, large metaorders have to be fragmented in order to be digested by the liquidity funnel, which leads to a long memory in the sign of the order flow. Second, the anomalously small local liquidity induces a breakdown of the linear response and a diverging impact of small orders, explaining the “square-root” impact law, for which we provide additional empirical support. Finally, we test our arguments quantitatively using a numerical model of order flow based on the same minimal ingredients.

  12. Price game and chaos control among three oligarchs with different rationalities in property insurance market.

    PubMed

    Ma, Junhai; Zhang, Junling

    2012-12-01

    Combining with the actual competition in Chinese property insurance market and assuming that the property insurance companies take the marginal utility maximization as the basis of decision-making when they play price games, we first established the price game model with three oligarchs who have different rationalities. Then, we discussed the existence and stability of equilibrium points. Third, we studied the theoretical value of Lyapunov exponent at Nash equilibrium point and its change process with the main parameters' changes though having numerical simulation for the system such as the bifurcation, chaos attractors, and so on. Finally, we analyzed the influences which the changes of different parameters have on the profits and utilities of oligarchs and their corresponding competition advantage. Based on this, we used the variable feedback control method to control the chaos of the system and stabilized the chaos state to Nash equilibrium point again. The results have significant theoretical and practical application value.

  13. Price game and chaos control among three oligarchs with different rationalities in property insurance market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Junhai; Zhang, Junling

    2012-12-01

    Combining with the actual competition in Chinese property insurance market and assuming that the property insurance companies take the marginal utility maximization as the basis of decision-making when they play price games, we first established the price game model with three oligarchs who have different rationalities. Then, we discussed the existence and stability of equilibrium points. Third, we studied the theoretical value of Lyapunov exponent at Nash equilibrium point and its change process with the main parameters' changes though having numerical simulation for the system such as the bifurcation, chaos attractors, and so on. Finally, we analyzed the influences which the changes of different parameters have on the profits and utilities of oligarchs and their corresponding competition advantage. Based on this, we used the variable feedback control method to control the chaos of the system and stabilized the chaos state to Nash equilibrium point again. The results have significant theoretical and practical application value.

  14. Models for the size distribution of businesses in a price driven market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Hulst, R.; Rodgers, G. J.

    2001-06-01

    A microscopic model of aggregation and fragmentation is introduced to investigate the size distribution of businesses. In the model, businesses are constrained to comply with the market price, as expected by the customers, while customers can only buy at the prices offered by the businesses. We show numerically and analytically that the size distribution scales like a power-law. A mean-field version of our model is also introduced and we determine for which value of the parameters the mean-field model agrees with the microscopic model. We discuss to what extent our simple model and its results compare with empirical data on company sizes in the US and debt sizes in Japan. Finally, possible extensions of the mean-field model are discussed, to cope with other empirical data.

  15. Nursing home prices and market structure: the effect of assisted living industry expansion.

    PubMed

    Bowblis, John R

    2014-01-01

    Since the 1990s, there has been substantial expansion of facility-based alternatives to nursing home care, such as assisted living facilities. This paper analyzes the relationship between expansion of the assisted living industry, nursing home market structure and nursing home private pay prices using a two-year panel of nursing homes in the State of Ohio. Fixed effect regressions suggest that the expansion of assisted living facilities are associated with increased nursing home concentration, but find no effect on private pay nursing home prices. This would be consistent with assisted livings reducing demand for nursing homes by delaying entry into a nursing home, though assisted livings are not direct competitors of nursing homes.

  16. U.S. Residential Photovoltaic (PV) System Prices, Q4 2013 Benchmarks: Cash Purchase, Fair Market Value, and Prepaid Lease Transaction Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Davidson, C.; James, T. L.; Margolis, R.; Fu, R.; Feldman, D.

    2014-10-01

    The price of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States (i.e., the cost to the system owner) has dropped precipitously in recent years, led by substantial reductions in global PV module prices. This report provides a Q4 2013 update for residential PV systems, based on an objective methodology that closely approximates the book value of a PV system. Several cases are benchmarked to represent common variation in business models, labor rates, and module choice. We estimate a weighted-average cash purchase price of $3.29/W for modeled standard-efficiency, polycrystalline-silicon residential PV systems installed in the United States. This is a 46% decline from the 2013-dollar-adjusted price reported in the Q4 2010 benchmark report. In addition, this report frames the cash purchase price in the context of key price metrics relevant to the continually evolving landscape of third-party-owned PV systems by benchmarking the minimum sustainable lease price and the fair market value of residential PV systems.

  17. Scheduling and Pricing for Expected Ramp Capability in Real-Time Power Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Ela, Erik; O'Malley, Mark

    2016-05-01

    Higher variable renewable generation penetrations are occurring throughout the world on different power systems. These resources increase the variability and uncertainty on the system which must be accommodated by an increase in the flexibility of the system resources in order to maintain reliability. Many scheduling strategies have been discussed and introduced to ensure that this flexibility is available at multiple timescales. To meet variability, that is, the expected changes in system conditions, two recent strategies have been introduced: time-coupled multi-period market clearing models and the incorporation of ramp capability constraints. To appropriately evaluate these methods, it is important to assess both efficiency and reliability. But it is also important to assess the incentive structure to ensure that resources asked to perform in different ways have the proper incentives to follow these directions, which is a step often ignored in simulation studies. We find that there are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. We also find that look-ahead horizon length in multi-period market models can impact incentives. This paper proposes scheduling and pricing methods that ensure expected ramps are met reliably, efficiently, and with associated prices based on true marginal costs that incentivize resources to do as directed by the market. Case studies show improvements of the new method.

  18. A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Li; Wan, Jieqiu

    2011-10-01

    In this article, we investigate the asymmetries of exceedance correlations and cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures markets. First, employing the test statistic proposed by Hong et al. [Asymmetries in stock returns: statistical tests and economic evaluation, Review of Financial Studies 20 (2007) 1547-1581], we find that the exceedance correlations were overall symmetric. However, the results from rolling windows show that some occasional events could induce the significant asymmetries of the exceedance correlations. Second, employing the test statistic proposed by Podobnik et al. [Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches, European Physics Journal B 71 (2009) 243-250], we find that the cross-correlations were significant even for large lagged orders. Using the detrended cross-correlation analysis proposed by Podobnik and Stanley [Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series, Physics Review Letters 100 (2008) 084102], we find that the cross-correlations were weakly persistent and were stronger between spot and futures contract with larger maturity. Our results from rolling sample test also show the apparent effects of the exogenous events. Additionally, we have some relevant discussions on the obtained evidence.

  19. Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groot, Robert D.; Musters, Pieter A. D.

    2005-05-01

    A variation of the Minority Game has been applied to study the timing of promotional actions at retailers in the fast moving consumer goods market. The underlying hypotheses for this work are that price promotions are more effective when fewer than average competitors do a promotion, and that a promotion strategy can be based on past sales data. The first assumption has been checked by analysing 1467 promotional actions for three products on the Dutch market (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) over a 120-week period, both on an aggregated level and on retailer chain level. The second assumption was tested by analysing past sales data with the Minority Game. This revealed that high or low competitor promotional pressure for actual ketchup, mayonnaise, curry sauce and barbecue sauce markets is to some extent predictable up to a forecast of some 10 weeks. Whereas a random guess would be right 50% of the time, a single-agent game can predict the market with a success rate of 56% for a 6-9 week forecast. This number is the same for all four mentioned fast moving consumer markets. For a multi-agent game a larger variability in the success rate is obtained, but predictability can be as high as 65%. Contrary to expectation, the actual market does the opposite of what game theory would predict. This points at a systematic oscillation in the market. Even though this result is not fully understood, merely observing that this trend is present in the data could lead to exploitable trading benefits. As a check, random history strings were generated from which the statistical variation in the game prediction was studied. This shows that the odds are 1:1,000,000 that the observed pattern in the market is based on coincidence.

  20. Lyondell outage spikes prices

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-07

    Methanol spot markets in the US Gulf Coast cooled a bit late last week from their Monday spike in the wake of a pipeline rupture and fire that shut down Lyondell Petrochemical`s Channelview, TX complex and its 248-million gal/year methanol plant. The unit resumed production last week and was expected to return to full service by August 3. Offering prices shot up at least 10% over the pre-accident level of about 50 cts/gal fob. No actual business could be confirmed at a price of more than 52 cts-53 cts/gal, however.

  1. Multi-period equilibrium/near-equilibrium in electricity markets based on locational marginal prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Bertrand, Raquel

    In this dissertation we propose an equilibrium procedure that coordinates the point of view of every market agent resulting in an equilibrium that simultaneously maximizes the independent objective of every market agent and satisfies network constraints. Therefore, the activities of the generating companies, consumers and an independent system operator are modeled: (1) The generating companies seek to maximize profits by specifying hourly step functions of productions and minimum selling prices, and bounds on productions. (2) The goals of the consumers are to maximize their economic utilities by specifying hourly step functions of demands and maximum buying prices, and bounds on demands. (3) The independent system operator then clears the market taking into account consistency conditions as well as capacity and line losses so as to achieve maximum social welfare. Then, we approach this equilibrium problem using complementarity theory in order to have the capability of imposing constraints on dual variables, i.e., on prices, such as minimum profit conditions for the generating units or maximum cost conditions for the consumers. In this way, given the form of the individual optimization problems, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions for the generating companies, the consumers and the independent system operator are both necessary and sufficient. The simultaneous solution to all these conditions constitutes a mixed linear complementarity problem. We include minimum profit constraints imposed by the units in the market equilibrium model. These constraints are added as additional constraints to the equivalent quadratic programming problem of the mixed linear complementarity problem previously described. For the sake of clarity, the proposed equilibrium or near-equilibrium is first developed for the particular case considering only one time period. Afterwards, we consider an equilibrium or near-equilibrium applied to a multi-period framework. This model embodies binary

  2. A farmers' market in a food desert: Evaluating impacts on the price and availability of healthy food.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Kristian; Gilliland, Jason

    2009-12-01

    Several studies have examined supermarket access for low-income residents, but few have explored how access to healthy food changes when a new food retailer such as a farmers' market opens in a place previously known as a 'food desert'. This paper uses a 'before and after' approach to examine the impact of the introduction of a farmers' market on the price and availability of healthy food in an underserved urban neighbourhood. The farmers' market had a major impact on grocery prices in the neighbourhood, which decreased by almost 12% in 3 years.

  3. U. S. Price Controls on Energy and the International Petrochemical Market

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-05-01

    12] Hall, Robert E., and Pindyck , Robert S. "The Conflicting Goals of National Energy Policy." Public Interest, pp. 3-15, Spring 1977 [131...AD-A261 313 CRC 486 / May 1983 - DTIC S ELECTF $MaR 19930L U.S. PRICE CONTROLS ON ENERGY AND THE INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL MARKET Robert A. Levy...Markct I N X k64 nJ -ýkf 6. A7IIIOR(S) Robert A. Levy. James M. Jondrow - 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZAT1ON NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) M .AI.G lk- ýN Center for

  4. Investor structure and the price-volume relationship in a continuous double auction market: An agent-based modeling perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wei; Bi, Zhengzheng; Shen, Dehua

    2017-02-01

    This paper investigates the impact of investor structure on the price-volume relationship by simulating a continuous double auction market. Connected with the underlying mechanisms of the price-volume relationship, i.e., the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) and the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis (SIAH), the simulation results show that: (1) there exists a strong lead-lag relationship between the return volatility and trading volume when the number of informed investors is close to the number of uninformed investors in the market; (2) as more and more informed investors entering the market, the lead-lag relationship becomes weaker and weaker, while the contemporaneous relationship between the return volatility and trading volume becomes more prominent; (3) when the informed investors are in absolute majority, the market can achieve the new equilibrium immediately. Therefore, we can conclude that the investor structure is a key factor in affecting the price-volume relationship.

  5. Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

  6. A prospect theory explanation of the disposition to trade losing investments for less than market price.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, D J

    2002-06-01

    Investors have a proven general reluctance to realize losses. The theory of "mental accounting" suggests that losses are easier to accept when mentally integrated with either preceding losses or with compensatory gains. Mental integration is made easier when a failed asset is exchanged against a new, apparently profitable, acquisition. The alternative is to sell the existing asset on the open market before re-investing the proceeds as desired. This is emotionally less appealing than "rolling over" a losing investment into a new venture by way of an asset trade. The psychological benefits of exchanging rather than selling a failed asset come at a cost. It is typical of trade-in arrangements, e.g., where one trades an old car against a new one, that the effective sale price of the existing asset is less than current market value. Acceptance of this low price adds to the investor's total monetary loss on the existing asset but is essential to an overall package deal apart from which that asset would often remain belatedly unsold.

  7. The importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency to HEV market success.

    SciTech Connect

    Santini, D. J.; Patterson, P. D.; Vyas, A. D.

    1999-12-08

    Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3 seconds zero to 60 mph acceleration, 260 time) and a higher-performance ''mild'' hybrid vehicle, or MHV (11 seconds 260 time). Each HEV is compared to a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11 seconds 260 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is $3,200-$3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuel price on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship between fuel price, the level of change in fuel price, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency is also evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 2090 and 870. Our analysis, with our current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVS would be quite limited.

  8. Update on inflation of journal prices: Brandon/Hill list journals and the scientific, technical, and medical publishing market*

    PubMed Central

    Schlimgen, Joan B.; Kronenfeld, Michael R.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: The original study of journal prices, using the “Brandon/ Hill Selected List of Books and Journals for the Small Medical Library,” was first published in 1980 and periodically updated. This research continues to measure price increases for these titles for the periods 1996 to 1999 and 1999 to 2002. Methodology: The 111 journal titles that have appeared in each published list from 1967 to 2001 were included in the study. Institutional subscription price data were gathered for each journal for the years 1996, 1999, and 2002 and were compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same years. Results: The average journal price continues to rise significantly and is independent of the CPI. The study found that prices have jumped 51.9% from 1996 to 1999 and 32% from 1999 to 2002, which is consistent with nearly every recent journal price study. Conclusion: The unprecedented rise in journal prices negatively affects the purchasing power of medical libraries. This paper examines the economic and technological pressures on the science, technology, and medical journals market that contribute to high prices and identifies a number of initiatives in the biological and health sciences that utilize alternative models for disseminating scientific research. PMID:15243636

  9. Update on inflation of journal prices: Brandon/Hill list journals and the scientific, technical, and medical publishing market.

    PubMed

    Schlimgen, Joan B; Kronenfeld, Michael R

    2004-07-01

    The original study of journal prices, using the "Brandon/ Hill Selected List of Books and Journals for the Small Medical Library," was first published in 1980 and periodically updated. This research continues to measure price increases for these titles for the periods 1996 to 1999 and 1999 to 2002. The 111 journal titles that have appeared in each published list from 1967 to 2001 were included in the study. Institutional subscription price data were gathered for each journal for the years 1996, 1999, and 2002 and were compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same years. The average journal price continues to rise significantly and is independent of the CPI. The study found that prices have jumped 51.9% from 1996 to 1999 and 32% from 1999 to 2002, which is consistent with nearly every recent journal price study. The unprecedented rise in journal prices negatively affects the purchasing power of medical libraries. This paper examines the economic and technological pressures on the science, technology, and medical journals market that contribute to high prices and identifies a number of initiatives in the biological and health sciences that utilize alternative models for disseminating scientific research.

  10. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  11. Flow of Funds Modeling for Localized Financial Markets: An Application of Spatial Price and Allocation Activity Analysis Models.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    portfolio response may not be trivial to changes in deposit costs, expected rates of return , variances, loan to deposit feedback rates , and risk aversion...asset markets must also be questioned. Existing price distortions in the fiuancial system, e.g., interest rate ceilings, have led to a degree of... return from real estate physical assets (approxiziated as the rate of growth of land prices ). Only the coefficient of the income variable was

  12. Validity of urinary monoamine assay sales under the “spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model”

    PubMed Central

    Hinz, Marty; Stein, Alvin; Uncini, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Spot baseline urinary monoamine assays have been used in medicine for over 50 years as a screening test for monoamine-secreting tumors, such as pheochromocytoma and carcinoid syndrome. In these disease states, when the result of a spot baseline monoamine assay is above the specific value set by the laboratory, it is an indication to obtain a 24-hour urine sample to make a definitive diagnosis. There are no defined applications where spot baseline urinary monoamine assays can be used to diagnose disease or other states directly. No peer-reviewed published original research exists which demonstrates that these assays are valid in the treatment of individual patients in the clinical setting. Since 2001, urinary monoamine assay sales have been promoted for numerous applications under the “spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model”. There is no published peer-reviewed original research that defines the scientific foundation upon which the claims for these assays are made. On the contrary, several articles have been published that discredit various aspects of the model. To fill the void, this manuscript is a comprehensive review of the scientific foundation and claims put forth by laboratories selling urinary monoamine assays under the spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model. PMID:21912487

  13. A stochastic model for stationary dynamics of prices in real estate markets. A case of random intensity for Poisson moments of prices changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael

    2017-06-01

    We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.

  14. Small-scale, partial-equilibrium model of natural gas markets: responses to alternative deregulation scenarios and oil price changes

    SciTech Connect

    Green, D.J.

    1984-04-01

    A small scale model of natural gas markets explains regulated gas prices using past changes in residual fuel oil prices. The study examines three different accelerated, complete wellhead gas decontrol scenarios to find the impact of current law, immediate decontrol, and accelerated decontrol. It finds that accelerated decontrol simply shifts price increases forward with minor impact, while the revenue transfers are fairly substantial. A windfall profits tax could capture much of this transfer, but the revenues from such a tax would decrease sharply by the end of the period. 23 references, 4 figures, 8 tables.

  15. The entry of Colombian-sourced heroin into the US market: the relationship between competition, price, and purity.

    PubMed

    Rosenblum, Daniel; Unick, George Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    There have been large structural changes in the US heroin market over the past 20 years. Colombian-sourced heroin entered the market in the mid-1990s, followed by a large fall in the price per pure gram and the exit of Asian heroin. By the 2000s, Colombian-sourced heroin had become a monopoly on the east coast and Mexican-sourced heroin a monopoly on the west coast with competition between the two in the middle. We estimate the relationship between these changes in competitive market structure on retail-level heroin price and purity. We find that the entry of Colombian-sourced heroin is associated with less competition and a lower price per pure gram of heroin at the national level. However, there is wide variation in changes in market concentration across the US. Controlling for the national fall in the heroin price, more competition in a region or city is associated with a lower price per pure gram.

  16. The Entry of Colombian-Sourced Heroin into the US Market: The Relationship between Competition, Price, and Purity

    PubMed Central

    Rosenblum, Daniel; Unick, Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    There have been large structural changes in the US heroin market over the past 20 years. Colombian-sourced heroin entered the market in the mid-1990s, followed by a large fall in the price per pure gram and the exit of Asian heroin. By the 2000s, Colombian-sourced heroin had become a monopoly on the east coast and Mexican-sourced heroin a monopoly on the west coast with competition between the two in the middle. We estimate the relationship between these changes in competitive market structure on retail-level heroin price and purity. We find that the entry of Colombian-sourced heroin is associated with less competition and a lower price per pure gram of heroin at the national level. However, there is wide variation in changes in market concentration across the US. Controlling for the national fall in the heroin price, more competition in a region or city is associated with a lower price per pure gram. PMID:24211155

  17. Urban farmers' markets: accessibility, offerings, and produce variety, quality, and price compared to nearby stores.

    PubMed

    Lucan, Sean C; Maroko, Andrew R; Sanon, Omar; Frias, Rafael; Schechter, Clyde B

    2015-07-01

    Most food-environment research has focused narrowly on select stores and restaurants. There has been comparatively less attention to non-storefront food sources like farmers' markets (FMs), particularly in urban communities. The objective of the present study was to assess FMs' potential contribution to an urban food environment in terms of specific foods offered, and compare FM accessibility as well as produce variety, quality, and price to that of nearby stores. Investigators conducted a detailed cross-sectional assessment of all FMs in Bronx County, NY, and of the nearest store(s) selling produce within a half-mile walking distance (up to two stores per FM). The study included 26 FMs and 44 stores. Investigators assessed accessibility (locations of FMs and stores relative to each other, and hours of operation for each), variety (the number and type of all food items offered at FMs and all fresh produce items offered at stores), quality (where produce items were grown and if they were organic), and price (including any sales prices or promotional discounts). Analyses included frequencies, proportions, and variable distributions, as well as mixed-effect regressions, paired t-tests, and signed rank tests to compare FMs to stores. Geographic information systems (GIS) allowed for mapping of FM and store locations and determining street-network distances between them. The mean distance between FMs and the nearest store selling fresh produce was 0.15 miles (range 0.02-0.36 miles). FMs were open substantially fewer months, days, and hours than stores. FMs offered 26.4 fewer fresh produce items on average than stores (p values <0.02). FM produce items were more frequently local and organic, but often tended toward less-common/more-exotic and heirloom varieties. FMs were more expensive on average (p values <0.001 for pairwise comparisons to stores) - even for more-commonplace and "conventional" produce - especially when discounts or sales prices were considered. Fully, 32

  18. Urban Farmers' Markets: accessibility, offerings, and produce variety, quality, and price compared to nearby stores

    PubMed Central

    Maroko, Andrew; Sanon, Omar; Frias, Rafael; Schechter, Clyde B.

    2015-01-01

    Most food-environment research has focused narrowly on select stores and restaurants. There has been comparatively less attention to non-storefront food sources like farmers' markets (FMs), particularly in urban communities. The objective of the present study was to assess FMs' potential contribution to an urban food environment in terms of specific foods offered, and compare FM accessibility as well as produce variety, quality, and price to that of nearby stores. Investigators conducted a detailed cross-sectional assessment of all FMs in Bronx County, NY, and of the nearest store(s) selling produce within a half-mile walking distance (up to two stores per FM). The study included 26 FMs and 44 stores. Investigators assessed accessibility (locations of FMs and stores relative to each other, and hours of operation for each), variety (the number and type of all food items offered at FMs and all fresh produce items offered at stores), quality (where produce items were grown and if they were organic), and price (including any sales prices or promotional discounts). Analyses included frequencies, proportions, and variable distributions, as well as mixed-effect regressions, paired t-tests, and signed rank tests to compare FMs to stores. Geographic information systems (GIS) allowed for mapping of FM and store locations and determining street-network distances between them. The mean distance between FMs and the nearest store selling fresh produce was 0.15 miles (range 0.02-0.36 miles). FMs were open substantially fewer months, days, and hours than stores. FMs offered 26.4 fewer fresh produce items on average than stores (p values <0.02). FM produce items were more frequently local and organic, but often tended towards less-common/more-exotic and heirloom varieties. FMs were more expensive on average (p values <0.001 for pairwise comparisons to stores)—even for more-commonplace and “conventional” produce—especially when discounts or sales prices were considered

  19. Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kumar, Vivek; Horio, Brant M.; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

  20. Two-faced property of a market factor in asset pricing and diversification effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Cheoljun

    2017-04-01

    This study empirically investigates the test hypothesis that a market factor acting as a representative common factor in the pricing models has a negative influence on constructing a well-diversified portfolio from the Markowitz mean-variance optimization function (MVOF). We use the comparative correlation matrix (C-CM) method to control a single eigenvalue among all eigenvalues included in the sample correlation matrix (S-CM), through the random matrix theory (RMT). In particular, this study observes the effect of the largest eigenvalue that has the property of the market factor. According to the results, the largest eigenvalue has the highest explanatory power on the stock return changes. The C-CM without the largest eigenvalue in the S-CM constructs a more diversified portfolio capable of improving the practical applicability of the MVOF. Moreover, the more diversified portfolio constructed from this C-CM has better out-of-sample performance in the future period. These results support the test hypothesis for the two-faced property of the market factor, defined by the largest eigenvalue.

  1. A Study of Demand Response Effect of Thermal Storage Air-Conditioning Systems in Consideration of Electricity Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omagari, Yuko; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro

    This paper evaluates the economic impact of the introduction of customer-owned Thermal Storage Air-conditioning (TSA) systems, in an electricity market, from the viewpoint of the load service entity. We perform simulations on the condition that several thousand customers install TSA systems and shift peak demand in an electricity market by one percent. Our numerical results indicate that the purchase cost of the LSE was reduced through load management of customers with TSA systems. The introduction of TSA systems also reduced the volatility of market clearing price and reduced the whole-trade cost in an electricity market.

  2. Market review: Market values summary July market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market is provided. Recent transactions are tabulated, including uranium sales, natural uranium loans, conversion sales, and enrichment sales. A market values summary and long-term price indicators are also provided. The July 1996 market review data includes summaries of near-term uranium sales, near-term supply/demand, NUEXCO values, USEC prices, and calculated worth of enriched uranium. Active projects in uranium, conversion, and separative work supply and demand are listed. International market values are tabulated for 22 selected currencies.

  3. Market Review: Market values summary/April market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1996-05-01

    This article is the April 1996 Uranium transactions summary. Data is presented on the supply, demand, and prices of U3O8, conversion services, and separative work units. During this period, market activity slowed, with only four transactions in the spot market. Prices strengthened slightly. There were five deals in the long-term U3O8 market and one deal in the conversion market. Active demand increased to 1.1 million pounds U3O8, while active supply increased to 4.8 million pounds U3O8.

  4. Interchangeability between paracetamol tablets marketed in Palestine. Is there a quality reason for a higher price?

    PubMed

    Zaid, A; Rinno, T; Jaradat, N; Jodeh, S; Khammash, S

    2013-06-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the quality of 10 commercial paracetamol products available on the Palestinian market. We carried out a survey on the price of all paracetamol tablet products and assessed their quality. To assess quality, all products were examined visually for their organoleptic properties, tested for weight uniformity, friability, disintegration, and dissolution profile, and assayed for paracetamol content. All imported products were 2 to 3 times more expensive than the locally produced generic products. Based on our testing procedure, all paracetamol products were equivalent to the innovator product except for 1 imported product which fell below the approved specifications developed for the innovator product. Although the majority of generic products met the dissolution specification requirement that 80% of the drug must dissolve in 30 minutes, 1 generic product failed. These results demonstrate that generic paracetamol tablets produced by local manufacturers are often comparable in vitro to the innovator product and have lower costs.

  5. Possibility of controlling nonregulated prices in the electricity market by means of varying the parameters of a power system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaskovskaya, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    This paper offers a new approach to the analysis of price signals from the wholesale electricity and capacity market that is based on the analysis of the influence exerted by input data used in the problem of optimization of the power system operating conditions, namely: parameters of a power grid and power-receiving equipment that might vary under the effect of control devices. It is shown that it would be possible to control nonregulated prices for electricity in the wholesale electricity market by varying the parameters of control devices and energy-receiving equipment. An increase in the effectiveness of power transmission and the cost-effective use of fuel-and-energy resources (energy saving) can become an additional effect of controlling the nonregulated prices.

  6. Effects of Market Prices and Silvicultural Practices on Lumber Value of Standing Trees In Uneven-Ages Plots

    Treesearch

    David W. Patterson

    1998-01-01

    Uneven-aged management plots were established using three variables (site index, basal area, and maximum diameter). This study looked at the significance of the variables on the lumber volume per acre, lumber value per thousand board feet (Mbf), and stand value per acre as well as the influence on these analysis by market prices (May 1997, May 1998, and October 1998)....

  7. Does Price Transparency Improve Market Efficiency? Implications of Empirical Evidence in Other Markets for the Health Sector

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-07-24

    conventional sellers’ prices. This effect occurred because sales at a few Internet booksellers , whose prices were relatively CRS-45 106 Karen Clay, Ramayya...the Web than at physical booksellers . They also found evidence of product differentiation, given the higher prices charged by Amazon, compared to both

  8. Medical Care Price Indexes for Patients with Employer-Provided Insurance: Nationally Representative Estimates from MarketScan Data

    PubMed Central

    Dunn, Abe; Liebman, Eli; Pack, Sarah; Shapiro, Adam Hale

    2013-01-01

    Objective Commonly observed shifts in the utilization of medical care services to treat diseases may pose problems for official price indexes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that do not account for service shifts. We examine how these shifts may lead to different price estimates than those observed in official price statistics at the BLS. Data Sources We use a convenience sample of enrollees with employer-provided insurance from the MarketScan database for the years 2003 to 2007. Population weights that consider the age, sex, and geographic distribution of enrollees are assigned to construct representative estimates. Study Design We compare two types of price indexes: (1) a Service Price Index (SPI) that is similar to the BLS index, which holds services fixed and measures the prices of the underlying treatments; (2) a Medical Care Expenditure Index (MCE) that measures the cost of treating diseases and allows for utilization shifts. Principal Findings Over the entire period of study the CAGR of the SPI grows 0.7 percentage points faster than the preferred MCE index. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the health component of inflation may be overstated by 0.7 percentage points per year, and real GDP growth may be understated by a similar amount. However, more work may be necessary to precisely replicate the indexes of the BLS to obtain a more accurate measure of these price differences. PMID:23088562

  9. Medical care price indexes for patients with employer-provided insurance: nationally representative estimates from MarketScan Data.

    PubMed

    Dunn, Abe; Liebman, Eli; Pack, Sarah; Shapiro, Adam Hale

    2013-06-01

    Commonly observed shifts in the utilization of medical care services to treat diseases may pose problems for official price indexes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that do not account for service shifts. We examine how these shifts may lead to different price estimates than those observed in official price statistics at the BLS. We use a convenience sample of enrollees with employer-provided insurance from the MarketScan database for the years 2003 to 2007. Population weights that consider the age, sex, and geographic distribution of enrollees are assigned to construct representative estimates. We compare two types of price indexes: (1) a Service Price Index (SPI) that is similar to the BLS index, which holds services fixed and measures the prices of the underlying treatments; (2) a Medical Care Expenditure Index (MCE) that measures the cost of treating diseases and allows for utilization shifts. Over the entire period of study the CAGR of the SPI grows 0.7 percentage points faster than the preferred MCE index. Our findings suggest that the health component of inflation may be overstated by 0.7 percentage points per year, and real GDP growth may be understated by a similar amount. However, more work may be necessary to precisely replicate the indexes of the BLS to obtain a more accurate measure of these price differences. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  10. A Study of Economic Evaluation of Demand-side Energy Storage System in Consideration of Market Clearing Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furusawa, Ken; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro; Mitani, Yasunori

    In Japan electricity market will open on 1st April 2004. Electric utility, Power Producer and Supplier (:PPS) and Load Service Entity (:LSE) will join to the electricity market. LSEs purchase electricity based on Market Clearing Price (:MCP) from electricity market. LSEs supply electricity to the customers contracted with the LSEs on a certain electricity price, and one to the customers introduced Energy Storage System (:ES) on a time of use pricing. It is difficult for LSEs to estimate whether they have incentive to promote customers to introduce ES or not. In this paper, it is evaluated the reduction of LSEs' purchasing cost from electricity market and other LSEs' purchasing cost by introducing customers ES. It is clarified that which kind of customers has the effect of decreasing LSEs' purchasing cost and how much MCP of whole power system the demand-side energy storage systems change. Through numerical examples, this paper evaluates the possibility to give the cost merit to both customers with energy storage systems and LSE by using a real data of yearly MCP.

  11. [Prudent use price controls in Chinese medicines market: based on statistical data analysis].

    PubMed

    Yang, Guang; Wang, Nuo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Qiu, Hong-Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping

    2014-01-01

    A dispute about the decreasing-price problem of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has recently arisen. This article analyzes the statistical data of 1995-2011 in China, the results showed that the main responsibility of expensive health care has no direct relationship with the drug price. The price index of TCM rose significantly slower than the medicine prices, the production margins of TCM affected by the material prices has been diminishing since 1995, continuous price reduction will further depress profits of the TCM industry. Considering the pros and cons of raw materials vary greatly in price, decreasing medicine price behavior will force enterprises to use inferior materials in order to maintain corporate profits. The results have the guiding meaning to medicine price management.

  12. Effects of regulation on drug launch and pricing in interdependent markets.

    PubMed

    Danzon, Patricia M; Epstein, Andrew J

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the effect of price regulation and competition on launch timing and pricing of new drugs. Our data cover launch experience in 15 countries from 1992 to 2003 for drugs in 12 major therapeutic classes. We estimate a two-equation model of launch hazard and launch price of new drugs. We find that launch timing and prices of new drugs are related to a country's average prices of established products in a class. Thus to the extent that price regulation reduces price levels, such regulation directly contributes to launch delay in the regulating country. Regulation by external referencing, whereby high-price countries reference low-price countries, also has indirect or spillover effects, contributing to launch delay and higher launch prices in low-price referenced countries. Referencing policies adopted in high-price countries indirectly impose welfare loss on low-price countries. These findings have implications for US proposals to constrain pharmaceutical prices through external referencing and drug importation.

  13. Study on the complexity pricing game and coordination of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

    2016-03-01

    The paper focuses on the dynamic pricing game of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance in demand and analyzes the influence of disturbance on the dynamic game system. Considering the demand for products, such as air conditioner, varies with different seasons, we assume three cases based on the condition of disturbance, including growth market (Case 1), declining market (Case 2) and completely random market (Case 3). By analyzing these three cases and making comparison among them, the paper shows that the growth market is more sensitive to the changing parameters such as the adjustment variable and the competitive factor than the declining market. It is more difficult to keep the system stable in a growth market. Although the demand is completely random, the dynamic system can reach a stable state, on condition that the adjustment variable is small enough. The results also indicate that the bullwhip effect between the order quantity and the actual demand is weakened gradually along with the price adjustment.

  14. Competition in the NHS internal market: an overview of its effects on hospital prices and costs.

    PubMed

    Propper, C; Söderlund, N

    1998-05-01

    The 1989 reforms of the UK National Health Service (NHS) introduced competition in the supply of hospital services. This paper synthesizes both the theory underlying the introduction of competition into the NHS, and the limited existing evidence on whether competition affects the prices posted by sellers of medical services, and the costs of producing these services. The results indicate high levels of price variability, widespread disregard for average cost pricing rules and some indication that competition had some effect on prices. It appears that lower prices may be offered to smaller purchasers, such as General Practice Fund Holders (GPFH). This effect of competition on price was mirrored, with a delay, in hospital costs.

  15. Steady Increase In Prices For Oral Anticancer Drugs After Market Launch Suggests A Lack Of Competitive Pressure.

    PubMed

    Bennette, Caroline S; Richards, Catherine; Sullivan, Sean D; Ramsey, Scott D

    2016-05-01

    The cost of treating cancer has risen to unprecedented heights, putting tremendous financial pressure on patients, payers, and society. Previous studies have documented the rising prices of cancer drugs at launch, but less critical attention has been paid to the cost of these drugs after launch. We used pharmacy claims for commercially insured individuals to examine trends in postlaunch prices over time for orally administered anticancer drugs recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In the period 2007-13, inflation-adjusted per patient monthly drug prices increased 5 percent each year. Certain market changes also played a role, with prices rising an additional 10 percent with each supplemental indication approved by the FDA and declining 2 percent with the FDA's approval of a competitor drug. Our findings suggest that there is currently little competitive pressure in the oral anticancer drug market. Policy makers who wish to reduce the costs of anticancer drugs should consider implementing policies that affect prices not only at launch but also later. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  16. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  17. Buyer and seller data from pay what you want and name your own price laboratory markets.

    PubMed

    Krämer, Florentin; Schmidt, Klaus M; Spann, Martin; Stich, Lucas

    2017-06-01

    Pay What You Want (PWYW) and Name Your Own Price (NYOP) are customer-driven pricing mechanisms that give customers (some) pricing power and that have been used in service industries with high fixed costs to price discriminate without setting a reference price. This paper describes buyer and seller data in a series of induced-value laboratory experiments that compare PWYW and NYOP in monopoly and competitive situations. Sellers are in a one-shot interaction with buyers. Sellers using customer-driven pricing mechanisms may exogenously or endogenously receive additional promotional benefits, for instance through word-of-mouth effects. The major findings based on the data presented here are reported in the paper "Delegating Pricing Power to Customers: Pay What You Want or Name Your Own Price?" (Krämer et al., 2017) [3].

  18. Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, A. J.; Saraiva, J. T.

    2012-10-01

    This paper describes a Dynamic Model of the electricity sector that can be used to simulate the evolution of some key variables on the long term, namely the evolution of the electricity price, of the demand and of the capacity factors of the technologies in the generation mix. This model can be used in different ways and by several agents, for instance to estimate the impact on the electricity price of the increasing presence of renewable power stations, namely using wind power and PV systems. In several countries these stations are paid feed-in tariffs with a fixed price but in some cases this scheme is under discussion and there are opinions that payments determined by the market price are more adequate and would bring fewer costs to final consumers. Such a change has to be carefully evaluated given that the presence of renewable stations bidding at an infra marginal price will affect the price itself. The model described in this paper can be used in a profitable way both by governmental agencies when preparing or studying alternative remuneration schemes to renewable stations or by promoters themselves to get more insight to the profitability of their investments, namely if the fixed feed-in tariffs in force in several countries are changed.

  19. The Sensitivity of Food Prices to Climate Dynamics in the Informal Markets of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Pinzon, J. E.; Prince, S. D.

    2006-05-01

    Systematic evaluation of food security throughout the West African Sahel has been attempted for nearly two decades. Food security analyses use food prices to determine the ability of the population to access food, and satellite derived vegetation indices to establish how much food is available each year. The relationship between these different food security indicators was explored in this study using correspondence analysis and through the use of Markov chain models. Two sources of quantitative data were used in these analysis that are readily available: 8km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the NOAA series of satellites carrying the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR), and monthly millet grain prices from 445 markets in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The results of this study show that the quality of the growing season affects the price of millet at the annual and the seasonal time scales. If the growing season was characterized by erratic, sparse rainfall it resulted in higher prices, and well- distributed, abundant rainfall resulted in lower prices. Model output was used to determine the impact of coupled price pressure and production deficits on the livelihoods of three demographic groups in Niger, demonstrating the power of integrating disparate datasets for food security estimation. The model can be used to estimate the economic and societal impacts resulting from climate variation, causing significant changes in human consumptions patterns. These changes can have global consequences when drought affects large portions of the growing regions simultaneously in the same year.

  20. Identifying the multiscale impacts of crude oil price shocks on the stock market in China at the sector level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this research is to investigate the multiscale dynamic linkages between crude oil price and the stock market in China at the sector level. First, the Haar à trous wavelet transform is implemented to extract multiscale information from the original time series. Furthermore, we incorporate the vector autoregression model to estimate the dynamic relationship pairing the Brent oil price and each sector stock index at each scale. There is a strong evidence showing that there are bidirectional Granger causality relationships between most of the sector stock indices and the crude oil price in the short, medium and long terms, except for those in the health, utility and consumption sectors. In fact, the impacts of the crude oil price shocks vary for different sectors over different time horizons. More precisely, the energy, information, material and telecommunication sector stock indices respond to crude oil price shocks negatively in the short run and positively in the medium and long runs, terms whereas the finance sector responds positively over all three time horizons. Moreover, the Brent oil price shocks have a stronger influence on the stock indices of sectors other than the health, optional and utility sectors in the medium and long terms than in the short term. The results obtained suggest implication of this paper as that the investment and policymaking decisions made during different time horizons should be based on the information gathered from each corresponding time scale.

  1. Examining the influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women

    PubMed Central

    McGuirt, Jared T.; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B.; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W.; Keyserling, Thomas C.; Ammerman, Alice S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To examine the influence of farmers’ market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets, among low-income women. Design: Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers’ market given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Setting: Eastern North Carolina. Participants: Thirty seven low-income women of child-bearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Phenomenon of Interest: Willingness to shop at a farmers’ market. Analysis: Fisher’s exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers’ markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based upon a positive deviance framework. Results: Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers’ market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than the quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Conclusions and Implications: Future farmers’ market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. PMID:24201077

  2. Examining the Influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women.

    PubMed

    McGuirt, Jared T; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W; Keyserling, Thomas C; Ammerman, Alice S

    2014-01-01

    To examine the influence of farmers' market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets, among low-income women. Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers' markets given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Eastern North Carolina. A total of 37 low-income women of childbearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Willingness to shop at a farmers' market. Fisher's exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers' markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based on a positive deviance framework. Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers' market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than a quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Future farmers' market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. Copyright © 2014 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Determinants of immediate price impacts at the trade level in an emerging order-driven market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2012-02-01

    Common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, whereas small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while liquidity (especially price gaps on the limit order book) is a more influential factor. Hence, there might be other factors influencing the immediate price impacts of trades. In this paper, through mechanical analysis of price variations before and after a trade of arbitrary size, we identify that the trade size, the bid-ask spread, the price gaps and the outstanding volumes at the bid and ask sides of the limit order book have an impact on the changes in prices. We propose two regression models to investigate the influence of these microscopic factors on the price impact of buyer-initiated partially filled trades, seller-initiated partially filled trades, buyer-initiated filled trades and seller-initiated filled trades. We find that they have quantitatively similar explanatory powers and these factors can account for up to 44% of the price impacts. Large trade sizes, wide bid-ask spreads, high liquidity at the same side and low liquidity at the opposite side will cause a large price impact. We also find that the liquidity at the opposite side has a more influential impact than the liquidity at the same side. Our results shed new light on the determinants of immediate price impacts.

  4. An Economic Analysis of Textbook Pricing and Textbook Markets. ACSFA College Textbook Cost Study Plan Proposal

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koch, James V.

    2006-01-01

    Between 1986 and 2004, textbook prices rose 186 percent in the United States, or slightly more than six percent per year. Meanwhile, other prices rose only about three percent per year. This paper examines the economic reasons why textbook prices have escalated so briskly and what reasonable alternatives are available that might slow down these…

  5. Effect of management, marketing, and certified health programs on the sale price of beef calves sold through a livestock video auction service from 1995 through 2009.

    PubMed

    Seeger, Jon T; King, Michael E; Grotelueschen, Dale M; Rogers, Glenn M; Stokka, Gerald S

    2011-08-15

    To evaluate and update the previously quantified effects of management, marketing, and certified health programs on the sale price of beef calves sold through a livestock video auction service. Longitudinal study. 41,657 lots representing 5,042,272 beef calves sold from 1995 through 2009. Data describing each lot of beef calves marketed from 1995 through 2009 by a livestock video auction service were obtained from sale catalogues. For each year of the study, multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the effect of management, marketing, and certified health programs on sale price. Sale date, base sale weight, quadratic effect of base weight, sex of calf, region of origin, breed description, inclusion in a certified health program, and number of calves in the lot significantly affected sale price for every year of the study. Variation in body weight, flesh score, and number of days between sale and delivery date had significant effects on price in most of the years; frame score and calves with horns affected price in 7 of 15 years; age and source verification influenced sale price in every year since source verification was introduced in 2005; and the auction service's progressive genetics program increased price during the 1 year that program was available. Some management, marketing, and certified health initiatives have consistently increased the sale price of beef calves, and producers can increase the price of their calves by implementing these practices.

  6. Accounting for the effects of power system controllers and stability on power dispatch and electricity market prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kodsi, Sameh K. M.

    Recently, the widespread use of power system controllers, such as PSS and FACTS controllers, has led to the analysis of their effect on the overall stability of power systems. Many studies have been conducted to allocate FACTS controllers so that they achieve optimal power flow conditions in the context of Optimal Power Flow (OPF) analysis. However, these studies usually do not examine the effect of these controllers on the voltage and angle stability of the entire system, considering that the types of these controllers and their control signals, such as reactive power, current, or voltage, have significant effect on the entire system stability. Due to the recent transition from government controlled to deregulated electricity markets, the relationship between power system controllers and electricity markets has added a new dimension, as the effect of these controllers on the overall power system stability has to be seen from an economic point of view. Studying the effect of adding and tuning these controllers on the pricing of electricity within the context of electricity markets is a significant and novel research area. Specifically, the link among stability, FACTS controllers and electricity pricing should be appropriately studied and modelled. Consequently, in this thesis, the focus is on proposing and describing of a novel OPF technique which includes a new stability constraint. This technique is compared with respect to existent OPF techniques, demonstrating that it provides an appropriate modelling of system controllers, and thus a better understanding of their effects on system stability and energy pricing. The proposed OPF technique offers a new methodology for pricing the dynamic services provided by the system's controllers. Moreover, the new OPF technique can be used to develop a novel tuning methodology for PSS and FACTS controllers to optimize power dispatch and price levels, as guaranteeing an adequate level of system security. All tests and

  7. The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    deBeurs, K.M.; Brown, M. E.

    2013-01-01

    to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices

  8. Marketing.

    PubMed

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    There is not enough marketing of dentistry; but there certainly is too much selling of poor quality service that is being passed off as dentistry. The marketing concept makes the patient and the patients' needs the ultimate criteria of marketing efforts. Myths and good practices for effective marketing that will promote oral health are described under the traditional four "Ps" categories of "product" (best dental care), "place" (availability), "promotion" (advertising and other forms of making patients aware of available services and how to use them), and "price" (the total cost to patients of receiving care).

  9. Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: The Heston model from minutes to months

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicente, Renato; de Toledo, Charles M.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

    2006-02-01

    We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the analysis. Model parameters are estimated by observing volatility scaling and correlation properties. We show that the Heston model with at least two time scales for the volatility mean reverting dynamics satisfactorily describes price fluctuations ranging from time scales larger than 20 min to 160 days. At time scales shorter than 20 min we observe autocorrelated returns and power law tails incompatible with the Heston model. Despite major regulatory changes, hyperinflation and currency crises experienced by the Brazilian market in the period studied, the general success of the description provided may be regarded as an evidence for a general underlying dynamics of price fluctuations at intermediate mesoeconomic time scales well approximated by the Heston model. We also notice that the connection between the Heston model and Ehrenfest urn models could be exploited for bringing new insights into the microeconomic market mechanics.

  10. Market memory and fat tail consequences in option pricing on the expOU stochastic volatility model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-08-01

    The expOU stochastic volatility model is capable of reproducing fairly well most important statistical properties of financial markets daily data. Among them, the presence of multiple time scales in the volatility autocorrelation is perhaps the most relevant which makes appear fat tails in the return distributions. This paper wants to go further on with the expOU model we have studied in Ref. [J. Masoliver, J. Perelló, Quant. Finance 6 (2006) 423] by exploring an aspect of practical interest. Having as a benchmark the parameters estimated from the Dow Jones daily data, we want to compute the price for the European option. This is actually done by Monte Carlo, running a large number of simulations. Our main interest is to “see” the effects of a long-range market memory from our expOU model in its subsequent European call option. We pay attention to the effects of the existence of a broad range of time scales in the volatility. We find that a richer set of time scales brings the price of the option higher. This appears in clear contrast to the presence of memory in the price itself which makes the price of the option cheaper.

  11. The impact of price regulation on the launch delay of new drugs--evidence from twenty-five major markets in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Danzon, Patricia M; Wang, Y Richard; Wang, Liang

    2005-03-01

    We analyze the effect of price regulation on delays in launch of new drugs. Because a low price in one market may 'spill-over' to other markets, through parallel trade and external referencing, manufacturers may rationally prefer longer delay or non-launch to accepting a relatively low price. We analyze the launch in 25 major markets, including 14 EU countries, of 85 new chemical entities (NCEs) launched between 1994 and 1998. Each NCE's expected price and market size in a country are estimated using lagged average price and market size of other drugs in the same (or related) therapeutic class. We estimate a Cox proportional hazard model of launch in each country, relative to first global launch. Only 55% of the potential launches occur. The US leads with 73 launches, followed by Germany (66) and the UK (64). Only 13 NCEs are launched in Japan, 26 in Portugal and 28 in New Zealand. The results indicate that countries with lower expected prices or smaller expected market size have fewer launches and longer launch delays, controlling for per capita income and other country and firm characteristics. Controlling for expected price and volume, country effects for the likely parallel export countries are significantly negative.

  12. SMART II+ : the spot market agent research tool version 2.0 plus natural gas.

    SciTech Connect

    North, M. J. N.

    2000-12-14

    Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) can be applied to investigate complex infrastructure interdependencies including those between the electric power and natural gas markets. The electric power and natural gas markets are undergoing fundamental transformations. These transformations include major changes in electric generator fuel sources. Electric generators that use natural gas as a fuel source are rapidly gaining market share. Electric generators using natural gas introduce direct interdependency between the electric power and natural gas markets. The interdependencies between the electric power and natural gas markets introduced by these generators can be investigated using the emergent behavior of CAS model agents.

  13. Pricing strategies in inelastic energy markets: can we use less if we can't extract more?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voinov, Alexey; Filatova, Tatiana

    2014-03-01

    Limited supply of nonrenewable energy resources under growing energy demand creates a situation when a marginal change in the quantity supplied or demanded causes non-marginal swings in price levels. The situation is worsened by the fact that we are currently running out of cheap energy resources at the global scale while adaptation to climate change requires extra energy costs. It is often argued that technology and alternative energy will be a solution. However, alternative energy infrastructure also requires additional energy investments, which can further increase the gap between energy demand and supply. This paper presents an explorative model that demonstrates that a smooth transition from an oil-based economy to alternative energy sources is possible only if it is started well in advance while fossil resources are still abundant. Later the transition looks much more dramatic and it becomes risky to rely entirely on technological solutions. It becomes increasingly likely that in addition to technological solutions that can increase supply we will need to find ways to decrease demand and consumption. We further argue that market mechanisms can be just as powerful tools to curb demand as they have traditionally been for stimulating consumption. We observe that individuals who consume more energy resources benefit at the expense of those who consume less, effectively imposing price externalities on the latters. We suggest two transparent and flexible methods of pricing that attempt to eliminate price externalities on energy resources. Such pricing schemes stimulate less consumption and can smooth the transition to renewable energy.

  14. Drugs Cheaper Than Threepenny: The Market of Extremely Low-Priced Drugs within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Chou, Li-Fang

    2014-01-01

    While most drug policy researches paid attention to the financial impact of expensive drugs, the market situation of low-priced drugs in a country was seldom analyzed. We used the nationally representative claims datasets to explore the status within the National Health Insurance (NHI) in Taiwan. In 2007, a total of 12,443 distinct drug items had been prescribed 853,250,147 times with total expenditure of 105,216,950,198 new Taiwan dollars (NTD). Among them, 7,366 oral drug items accounted for 701,353,383 prescribed items and 68,133,988,960 NTD. Besides, 2,887 items (39.2% of oral drug items) belonged to cheap drugs with the unit price ≤1 NTD (about 0.03 of US dollar). While the top one item among all oral drugs had already a market share of 5.0%, 30 items 30.3% and 107 items 50.0%, the cheap drugs with aggregate 332,893,462 prescribed items (47.5% of all prescribed oral drug items) only accounted for 2,750,725,433 NTD (4.0% of expenditure for oral drugs and 2.6% of total drug expenditure). The drug market of Taiwan's NHI was abundant in cheap drugs. The unreasonably low prices of drugs might not guarantee the quality of pharmaceutical care and the sustainability of a healthy pharmaceutical industry in the long run. PMID:24719568

  15. Drugs cheaper than threepenny: the market of extremely low-priced drugs within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bih-Ru; Chou, Chia-Lin; Hsu, Chia-Chen; Chou, Yueh-Ching; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chou, Li-Fang

    2014-01-01

    While most drug policy researches paid attention to the financial impact of expensive drugs, the market situation of low-priced drugs in a country was seldom analyzed. We used the nationally representative claims datasets to explore the status within the National Health Insurance (NHI) in Taiwan. In 2007, a total of 12,443 distinct drug items had been prescribed 853,250,147 times with total expenditure of 105,216,950,198 new Taiwan dollars (NTD). Among them, 7,366 oral drug items accounted for 701,353,383 prescribed items and 68,133,988,960 NTD. Besides, 2,887 items (39.2% of oral drug items) belonged to cheap drugs with the unit price ≤ 1 NTD (about 0.03 of US dollar). While the top one item among all oral drugs had already a market share of 5.0%, 30 items 30.3% and 107 items 50.0%, the cheap drugs with aggregate 332,893,462 prescribed items (47.5% of all prescribed oral drug items) only accounted for 2,750,725,433 NTD (4.0% of expenditure for oral drugs and 2.6% of total drug expenditure). The drug market of Taiwan's NHI was abundant in cheap drugs. The unreasonably low prices of drugs might not guarantee the quality of pharmaceutical care and the sustainability of a healthy pharmaceutical industry in the long run.

  16. Estimating organic, local, and other price premiums in the Hawaii fluid milk market.

    PubMed

    Loke, Matthew K; Xu, Xun; Leung, PingSun

    2015-04-01

    With retail scanner data, we applied hedonic price modeling to explore price premiums for organic, local, and other product attributes of fluid milk in Hawaii. Within the context of revealed preference, this analysis of organic and local attributes, under a single unified framework, is significant, as research in this area is deficient in the existing literature. This paper finds both organic and local attributes delivered price premiums over imported, conventional, whole fluid milk. However, the estimated price premium for organic milk (24.6%) is significantly lower than findings in the existing literature. Likewise, the price premium for the local attribute is estimated at 17.4%, again substantially lower compared with an earlier, stated preference study in Hawaii. Beyond that, we estimated a robust price premium of 19.7% for nutritional benefits claimed. The magnitude of this estimated coefficient reinforces the notion that nutrition information on food is deemed beneficial and valuable. Finally, package size measures the influence of product weight. With each larger package size, the estimate led to a corresponding larger price discount. This result is consistent with the practice of weight discounting that retailers usually offer with fresh packaged food. Additionally, we estimated a fairly high Armington elasticity of substitution, which suggests a relatively high degree of substitution between local and imported fluid milk when their relative price changes. Overall, this study establishes price premiums for organic, local, and nutrition benefits claimed for fluid milk in Hawaii. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  18. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  19. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  20. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  1. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  2. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2016-07-12

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  3. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    SciTech Connect

    2009-11-04

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  4. Understanding specialist sharing: A mixed-method exploration in an increasingly price-competitive hospital market.

    PubMed

    Westra, Daan; Angeli, Federica; Jatautaitė, Evelina; Carree, Martin; Ruwaard, Dirk

    2016-08-01

    Medical specialists seem to increasingly work in- and be affiliated to- multiple organizations. We define this phenomenon as specialist sharing. This form of inter-organizational cooperation has received scant scholarly attention. We investigate the extent of- and motives behind- specialist sharing, in the price-competitive hospital market of the Netherlands. A mixed-method was adopted. Social network analysis was used to quantitatively examine the extent of the phenomenon. The affiliations of more than 15,000 medical specialists to any Dutch hospital were transformed into 27 inter-hospital networks, one for each medical specialty, in 2013 and in 2015. Between February 2014 and February 2016, 24 semi-structured interviews with 20 specialists from 13 medical specialties and four hospital executives were conducted to provide in-depth qualitative insights regarding the personal and organizational motives behind the phenomenon. Roughly, 20% of all medical specialists are affiliated to multiple hospitals. The phenomenon occurs in all medical specialties and all Dutch hospitals share medical specialists. Rates of specialist sharing have increased significantly between 2013 and 2015 in 14 of the 27 specialties. Personal motives predominantly include learning, efficiency, and financial benefits. Increased workload and discontinuity of care are perceived as potential drawbacks. Hospitals possess the final authority to decide whether and which specialists are shared. Adhering to volume norms and strategic considerations are seen as their main drivers to share specialists. We conclude that specialist sharing should be interpreted as a form of inter-organizational cooperation between healthcare organizations, facilitating knowledge flow between them. Although quality improvement is an important perceived factor underpinning specialist sharing, evidence of enhanced quality of care is anecdotal. Additionally, the widespread occurrence of the phenomenon and the underlying

  5. Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

  6. Market review: Market values summary/May market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1996-06-01

    This article is the May 1996 Uranium transactions summary. Data on Uranium supply and demand is included, as is data on conversion services and separative work units supply and demand. The spot market was active during this period, with 3.6 million pounds U3O8 changing hands in nine transactions. This brought a strengthing of prices. There were also five deals in the long-term market and three deals for natural UF6.

  7. Pharmaceutical pricing in emerging markets: effects of income, competition, and procurement.

    PubMed

    Danzon, Patricia M; Mulcahy, Andrew W; Towse, Adrian K

    2015-02-01

    This paper analyzes determinants of ex-manufacturer prices for originator and generic drugs across countries. We focus on drugs to treat HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria in middle and low-income countries (MLICs), with robustness checks to other therapeutic categories and the full income range of countries. We examine the effects of per capita income, income dispersion, competition from originator and generic substitutes, and whether the drugs are sold to retail pharmacies versus tendered procurement by non-government organizations. The cross-national income elasticity of prices is 0.27 across the full income range of countries but is 0.0-0.10 between MLICs, implying that drugs are least affordable relative to income in the lowest income countries. Within-country income inequality contributes to relatively high prices in MLICs. Although generics are priced roughly 30% lower than originators on average, the variance is large. Additional generic competitors only weakly affect prices, plausibly because generic quality uncertainty leads to competition on brand rather than price. Tendered procurement that imposes quality standards attracts multinational generic suppliers and significantly reduces prices of originator and generic drugs, compared with their respective prices to retail pharmacies.

  8. NewsMarket 2.0: Analysis of News for Stock Price Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barazzetti, Alessandro; Mastronardi, Rosangela

    Most of the existing financial research tools use a stock's historical price and technical indicators to predict future price trends without taking into account the impact of web news. The recent explosion of demand for information on financial investment management is driving the search for alternative methods of quantitative data analysis.

  9. PHARMACEUTICAL PRICING IN EMERGING MARKETS: EFFECTS OF INCOME, COMPETITION, AND PROCUREMENT

    PubMed Central

    Danzon, Patricia M; Mulcahy, Andrew W; Towse, Adrian K

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes determinants of ex-manufacturer prices for originator and generic drugs across countries. We focus on drugs to treat HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria in middle and low-income countries (MLICs), with robustness checks to other therapeutic categories and the full income range of countries. We examine the effects of per capita income, income dispersion, competition from originator and generic substitutes, and whether the drugs are sold to retail pharmacies versus tendered procurement by non-government organizations. The cross-national income elasticity of prices is 0.27 across the full income range of countries but is 0.0–0.10 between MLICs, implying that drugs are least affordable relative to income in the lowest income countries. Within-country income inequality contributes to relatively high prices in MLICs. Although generics are priced roughly 30% lower than originators on average, the variance is large. Additional generic competitors only weakly affect prices, plausibly because generic quality uncertainty leads to competition on brand rather than price. Tendered procurement that imposes quality standards attracts multinational generic suppliers and significantly reduces prices of originator and generic drugs, compared with their respective prices to retail pharmacies. ©2013 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:24293058

  10. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  11. Out Out, Damned Spot: General Education in a Market-Driven Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Michael S.

    2006-01-01

    The influence of market forces on general education creates threats and opportunities that must be proactively addressed. This essay argues for understanding the rise of the marketplace and its influence on general education by exploring student consumerism as well as teaching and learning in a market-oriented environment. (Contains 1 figure.)

  12. Out Out, Damned Spot: General Education in a Market-Driven Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Michael S.

    2006-01-01

    The influence of market forces on general education creates threats and opportunities that must be proactively addressed. This essay argues for understanding the rise of the marketplace and its influence on general education by exploring student consumerism as well as teaching and learning in a market-oriented environment. (Contains 1 figure.)

  13. Effect of trading momentum and price resistance on stock market dynamics: a Glauber Monte Carlo simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castiglione, F.; Pandey, R. B.; Stauffer, D.

    2001-01-01

    A Monte Carlo computer simulation model is presented to study the evolution of stock price and the distribution of price fluctuation. The resistance is described by an elastic energy Ee= e· x2 resulting from the price deviation x from an initial value and the momentum trading by the potential energy Ep=- b· y in a price gradient y field. The distribution of price fluctuation ( P( y)) is symmetric and shows a long time tail compatible over some range with a power-law, P( y)∼ y- μ with μ≃4 at e=1.0, b=5 . The volatility auto-correlation function ( c( τ)) is positive for several iterations.

  14. The case for OFSMOKE: how tobacco price regulation is needed to promote the health of markets, government revenue and the public

    PubMed Central

    Branston, J Robert; Sweanor, David

    2010-01-01

    Mainstream economic theory outlines four main causes of market failure and it is already well established that two of these (information failure and externalities) exist in a tobacco market. A third cause of market failure, market power, is also a serious problem in many tobacco markets. Market power—combined with unintended and often overlooked consequences of tobacco tax policies, notably that gradual increases in specific taxes may allow the industry to disguise significant price increases—has, at least in high income countries, given cigarette manufacturers considerable pricing power and profits. This paper examines ways this market failure could be addressed and proposes as a solution a system of price cap regulation wherein a cap is placed on the pre-tax cigarette manufacturers' price but not on the retail price that consumers face. Well established in the utilities industry, price cap regulation would set a maximum price that cigarette companies can charge for their product based on an assessment of the genuine costs each firm faces in its operations and an assumption about the efficiency savings it would be expected to make. Such a system would achieve three main benefits. First, it would address the problem of market failure and excess profits while simultaneously allowing current tobacco control policies, including tax and price increases, to expand—thus tax increases would remain a central tenet of tobacco control policies and retail prices could continue to increase. Second, it would increase government revenue by transferring the excess profits from the industry to the government purse. Third, it would bring numerous public health benefits. In addition to addressing market power, while simultaneously allowing tobacco control policies to expand, it could offer a means of preventing down-trading to cheaper products and controlling unwanted industry practices such as cigarette smuggling, price fixing and marketing to the young. The paper outlines in

  15. The case for OFSMOKE: how tobacco price regulation is needed to promote the health of markets, government revenue and the public.

    PubMed

    Gilmore, Anna B; Branston, J Robert; Sweanor, David

    2010-10-01

    Mainstream economic theory outlines four main causes of market failure and it is already well established that two of these (information failure and externalities) exist in a tobacco market. A third cause of market failure, market power, is also a serious problem in many tobacco markets. Market power--combined with unintended and often overlooked consequences of tobacco tax policies, notably that gradual increases in specific taxes may allow the industry to disguise significant price increases--has, at least in high income countries, given cigarette manufacturers considerable pricing power and profits. This paper examines ways this market failure could be addressed and proposes as a solution a system of price cap regulation wherein a cap is placed on the pre-tax cigarette manufacturers' price but not on the retail price that consumers face. Well established in the utilities industry, price cap regulation would set a maximum price that cigarette companies can charge for their product based on an assessment of the genuine costs each firm faces in its operations and an assumption about the efficiency savings it would be expected to make. Such a system would achieve three main benefits. First, it would address the problem of market failure and excess profits while simultaneously allowing current tobacco control policies, including tax and price increases, to expand--thus tax increases would remain a central tenet of tobacco control policies and retail prices could continue to increase. Second, it would increase government revenue by transferring the excess profits from the industry to the government purse. Third, it would bring numerous public health benefits. In addition to addressing market power, while simultaneously allowing tobacco control policies to expand, it could offer a means of preventing down-trading to cheaper products and controlling unwanted industry practices such as cigarette smuggling, price fixing and marketing to the young. The paper outlines in

  16. The exceedance and cross-correlations between the gold spot and futures markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Huang, Ying; Jiang, Wei

    2016-12-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic features of cross-correlations and exceedance correlations between COMEX gold spot and futures returns using the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and a test for symmetrical exceedance correlation. First, we examine the cross-correlations both qualitatively and quantitatively by employing the cross-correlations test and the DCCA method. We find that the cross-correlations are significant for all lagged orders and are weakly persistent. Our results from a rolling sample test also show that some exogenous events can apparently affect the cross-correlations between gold spot and futures returns. Second, after employing the test statistic, our empirical results show that the exceedance correlations between spot and futures returns are both positive and symmetric, indicating that the two returns co-move in the same direction and that the correlations between them are symmetrical for the upper and lower of the returns. However, the results from the rolling sample show that occasional events can induce significant asymmetries of exceedance correlations.

  17. Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between the CSI 300 index futures and the spot markets based on high-frequency data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Guangxi; Han, Yan; Cui, Weijun; Guo, Yu

    2014-11-01

    The cross-correlation between the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) index futures and the spot markets based on high-frequency data is discussed in this paper. We empirically analyze the cross-correlation by using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), and investigate further the characteristics of asymmetry, frequency difference, and transmission direction of the cross-correlation. The results indicate that the cross-correlation between the two markets is significant and multifractal. Meanwhile, weak asymmetries exist in the cross-correlation, and higher data frequency results in a lower multifractality degree of the cross-correlation. The causal relationship between the two markets is bidirectional, but the CSI 300 index futures market has greater impact on the spot market.

  18. Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles—Evidence from China’s Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

    2016-01-01

    We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China’s stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank’s policymaking. PMID:27851796

  19. Informal household water market and determinants of price: Evidence from an Indian hill city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pal, Manoranjan; De, Utpal Kumar

    2015-02-01

    Pricing of water in the hill cities in India is different from that of plain lands, because water is a scarce resource in most of the hill cities. The supply of water by the municipalities is inadequate. The private vendors come into picture and they put the prices according to the difficulties faced in supplying to the specific locations. Thus prices become variables and are also based on the economic demand-supply mechanism in which the households try to maximise their satisfaction subject to budget and other constraints, while the vendors try to extract as much benefit as possible from the buyers. This paper tries to examine the pricing of household water use in Shillong urban area, India and the impact of various factors including income, house rent, seasonal scarcity of water, capacity of municipal supply, household size on the price-quantity determination. The analysis is made in terms of a simultaneous equation framework and the model is applied to a data collected by stratified random sampling technique across the municipal wards and non-municipal segments of greater Shillong urban Agglomeration. The result of three stage least squares reveals significant positive impacts of income, scarcity of water on the demand price while significantly negative impacts of quantity purchased, extent of municipal supply, house rent paid on the demand price. But the household size does not have any significant impact on the demand price though large household is expected to require more water. The supply of water on the other hand is not significantly affected by price, extent of municipal supply and deficiency though the coefficients are in the expected line.

  20. Petroleum industry sensitivity and world oil market prices: The Nigerian example

    SciTech Connect

    Kalu, T.Ch.U.

    1995-12-31

    Most empirical studies have focused on the demand side of energy with little or no attention to the supply side. To deal with this defect, this paper adopts a microanalytic approach to the problem of the individual oil firms to provide a basis for determining the effects of changes in such macro-variables as prices on their operations. However, instead of the familiar econometric approach to energy studies, a goal programming approach is adopted. Using a multinational oil company as a case study, the effects of change in crude oil prices are examined. The results, among other things, support the hypersensitivity of oil companies to changes in economic cycles, the price inelasticity of demand for crude oil in the short run, and a time lag between price change and the time an oil company responds to it. The management and policy implications of the results are also discussed. 28 refs., 3 tabs.

  1. Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

    2011-01-01

    Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

  2. The Potential for Accurately Measuring Behavioral and Economic Dimensions of Consumption, Prices, and Markets for Illegal Drugs

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Bruce D.; Golub, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    There are numerous analytic and methodological limitations to current measures of drug market activity. This paper explores the structure of markets and individual user behavior to provide an integrated understanding of behavioral and economic (and market) aspects of illegal drug use with an aim toward developing improved procedures for measurement. This involves understanding the social processes that structure illegal distribution networks and drug users’ interactions with them. These networks are where and how social behaviors, prices, and markets for illegal drugs intersect. Our focus is upon getting an up close measurement of these activities. Building better measures of consumption behaviors necessitates building better rapport with subjects than typically achieved with one-time surveys in order to overcome withholding and underreporting and to get a comprehensive understanding of the processes involved. This can be achieved through repeated interviews and observations of behaviors. This paper also describes analytic advances that could be adopted to direct this inquiry including behavioral templates, and insights into the economic valuation of labor inputs and cash expenditures for various illegal drugs. Additionally, the paper makes recommendations to funding organizations for developing the mechanisms that would support behavioral scientists to weigh specimens and to collect small samples for laboratory analysis—by providing protection from the potential for arrest. The primary focus is upon U.S. markets. The implications for other countries are discussed. PMID:16978801

  3. Marketing Little Cigars and Cigarillos: Advertising, Price, and Associations With Neighborhood Demographics

    PubMed Central

    Kreslake, Jennifer M.; Ganz, Ollie; Pearson, Jennifer L.; Vallone, Donna; Anesetti-Rothermel, Andrew; Xiao, Haijun; Kirchner, Thomas R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. We have documented little cigar and cigarillo (LCC) availability, advertising, and price in the point-of-sale environment and examined associations with neighborhood demographics. Methods. We used a multimodal real-time surveillance system to survey LCCs in 750 licensed tobacco retail outlets that sold tobacco products in Washington, DC. Using multivariate models, we examined the odds of LCC availability, the number of storefront exterior advertisements, and the price per cigarillo for Black & Mild packs in relation to neighborhood demographics. Results. The odds of LCC availability and price per cigarillo decreased significantly in nearly a dose-response manner with each quartile increase in proportion of African Americans. Prices were also lower in some young adult neighborhoods. Having a higher proportion of African American and young adult residents was associated with more exterior LCC advertising. Conclusions. Higher availability of LCCs in African American communities and lower prices and greater outdoor advertising in minority and young adult neighborhoods may establish environmental triggers to smoke among groups susceptible to initiation, addiction, and long-term negative health consequences. PMID:23948008

  4. Marketing little cigars and cigarillos: advertising, price, and associations with neighborhood demographics.

    PubMed

    Cantrell, Jennifer; Kreslake, Jennifer M; Ganz, Ollie; Pearson, Jennifer L; Vallone, Donna; Anesetti-Rothermel, Andrew; Xiao, Haijun; Kirchner, Thomas R

    2013-10-01

    We have documented little cigar and cigarillo (LCC) availability, advertising, and price in the point-of-sale environment and examined associations with neighborhood demographics. We used a multimodal real-time surveillance system to survey LCCs in 750 licensed tobacco retail outlets that sold tobacco products in Washington, DC. Using multivariate models, we examined the odds of LCC availability, the number of storefront exterior advertisements, and the price per cigarillo for Black & Mild packs in relation to neighborhood demographics. The odds of LCC availability and price per cigarillo decreased significantly in nearly a dose-response manner with each quartile increase in proportion of African Americans. Prices were also lower in some young adult neighborhoods. Having a higher proportion of African American and young adult residents was associated with more exterior LCC advertising. Higher availability of LCCs in African American communities and lower prices and greater outdoor advertising in minority and young adult neighborhoods may establish environmental triggers to smoke among groups susceptible to initiation, addiction, and long-term negative health consequences.

  5. Reference pricing and firms' pricing strategies.

    PubMed

    Miraldo, Marisa

    2009-01-01

    Within a horizontal differentiation model and allowing for heterogeneous qualities, we analyze the effects of reference pricing reimbursement on firms' pricing strategies. With this analysis we find inherent incentives for firms' pricing behavior, and consequently we shed some light on the time consistency of such policy. The analysis encompasses different reference price rules: (i) reference price as the minimum of the observed prices in the market, (ii) reference price as a linear combination of firms' prices. Results show that under the "minimum policy" firms are not able to coordinate on higher prices while the "linear policy", implicitly, provides a coordination device. We have also found that, relatively to the "linear policy", when the reference price is the minimum of observed prices, after policy implementation, total and private expenditures are higher and consumer surplus and firms' profits are lower. With quality differentiation both the minimum and linear policies unambiguously lead to higher prices.

  6. Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Xiaoyang; Wei, Yu; Ma, Feng

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, the multifractality and efficiency degrees of ten important Chinese sectoral indices are evaluated using the methods of MF-DFA and generalized Hurst exponents. The study also scrutinizes the dynamics of the efficiency of Chinese sectoral stock market by the rolling window approach. The overall empirical findings revealed that all the sectoral indices of Chinese stock market exist different degrees of multifractality. The results of different efficiency measures have agreed on that the 300 Materials index is the least efficient index. However, they have a slight diffidence on the most efficient one. The 300 Information Technology, 300 Telecommunication Services and 300 Health Care indices are comparatively efficient. We also investigate the cross-correlations between the ten sectoral indices and WTI crude oil price based on Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis. At last, some relevant discussions and implications of the empirical results are presented.

  7. Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook for 1980 through 1988

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Costogue, E. N.; Ferber, R. R.

    1984-01-01

    The results of the second JPL update to an original report to assess the availability and prices of polycrystalline Si for solar cells in the 1983-88 interval are reported. It is noted that the demand for poly-Si for solar cells competes with the demand for the same material for semiconductors, although the solar cell industry can use material rejected from the semiconductor industry. A sufficient supply is projected for the 6 yr period, rising from 3224 metric tons to 10,220 metric tons in 1988, with prices dropping from the 1980 level of $140/kg to $25/kg. The price reduction and improved production are noted to be due in large part to DOE efforts at defining lower-cost production processes.

  8. Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook for 1980 through 1988

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Costogue, E. N.; Ferber, R. R.

    1984-01-01

    The results of the second JPL update to an original report to assess the availability and prices of polycrystalline Si for solar cells in the 1983-88 interval are reported. It is noted that the demand for poly-Si for solar cells competes with the demand for the same material for semiconductors, although the solar cell industry can use material rejected from the semiconductor industry. A sufficient supply is projected for the 6 yr period, rising from 3224 metric tons to 10,220 metric tons in 1988, with prices dropping from the 1980 level of $140/kg to $25/kg. The price reduction and improved production are noted to be due in large part to DOE efforts at defining lower-cost production processes.

  9. The MiSPOT System: Personalized Publicity and Marketing over Interactive Digital TV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Nores, Martín; Pazos-Arias, José Juan; Blanco-Fernández, Yolanda; García-Duque, Jorge; Tubío-Pardavila, Ricardo; Rey-López, Marta

    The development of Interactive Digital TV bears a great potential for electronic commerce, which remains heavily underexploited to date. The early initiatives to harness these technologies rely on the advertising techniques traditionally employed by the television industry, which have proven deficiencies related to viewers' comfort, locality and targeting. Furthermore, out of dedicated channels, there are very few attempts to provide interactive commercial functionalities through the TV, for example to sell products or to hire services. This chapter presents an overview of a system called MiSPOT that introduces solutions to these problems in two levels: (i) to advertise items that match the preferences and needs of the viewers, without interfering with their enjoyment of the TV programs; and (ii) to assemble specialized interactive applications that provide them with tailor-made commercial functionalities. These solutions are grounded on techniques from the Semantic Web, and are valid for both domestic TV receivers and mobile ones.

  10. Two essays on electricity markets: Entry into hydroelectric generation industry and the political cycle of regulated prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moita, Rodrigo Menon Simoes

    This dissertation is about the electricity industry and the problems that arise with the liberalization and de-regulation of the industry. Characteristics intrinsic to the electricity market create problems that can compromise an efficient functioning of this market. Each of the two chapters of this dissertation focus on a specific aspect of this industry. The first chapter analyzes entry in the hydroelectric generation industry. The operation of a generator upstream regularizes the river flow for generators located downstream on the same river, increasing the production capacity of the latter. This positive externality increases the attractiveness of the locations downstream whenever a generator decides to enter upstream. Therefore, the entry decision of a generator in a given location may affect all entry decisions in potential locations for plants located downstream. I first model the problem of generators located in cascade on the same river and show the positive effect of the externality. Second, I use a panel of data on investment decisions of hydro-generation firms to estimate an entry model that takes into account the effect of the externality generated by entry upriver. The results show a positive incentive to locate downstream from existing plants and from locations where entry is likely to occur. Location characteristics also play an important role on the entrants' decisions. The model provides estimates of the average expected market price across the different years covered by the sample and shows that it rose one year before the energy crisis of 2001, evidencing that the market anticipated the crisis. This result has important implications on the evaluation of the Brazilian market design. It shows that entry responded to a rise in expectations about excess demand in the future, contradicting the argument that the crisis was a consequence of mis-designed market institutions. The second chapter deals with the problem of the political cycle in regulated

  11. Going cheap: determinants of bird price in the Taiwanese pet market.

    PubMed

    Su, Shan; Cassey, Phillip; Vall-Llosera, Miquel; Blackburn, Tim M

    2015-01-01

    International wildlife trade is the largest emerging source of vertebrate invasive alien species. In order to prevent invasions, it is essential to understand the mechanics of trade and, in particular, which traded species are most likely to be released or escape into the wild. A species' economic value is a key factor, because we expect cheaper species to be less assiduously secured against escaping, and more likely to be deliberately released. Here, we investigate determinants of the price of species in the Taiwanese bird trade. Taiwan is an international hub for bird trade, and several native species are threatened by alien bird species. We investigated the relationship between the traded species sale price in Taiwan and the species availability for trade (the number of birds for sale, geographic range size and their origin, conservation and CITES status) and traits (body size, coloration, song attractiveness). We used phylogenetic generalized least squares models, with multi-model inference, to assess the variables that are best related to the price of birds in the Taiwanese pet trade. We found that species available for sale in larger numbers, native to Taiwan, not globally endangered, and small-bodied are all relatively cheaper, as too are species lacking yellow coloration and without attractive songs. Our models of price revealed high levels of phylogenetic correlation, and hence that closely related species tended to be sold for similar prices. We suggest that, on the basis of price, native species are more likely to be deliberately or accidentally released than alien species. Nevertheless, our survey of bird shops recorded 160 species alien to Taiwan (7,631 individuals), several of which are for sale cheaply and in large numbers. Alien bird species in trade therefore present an ongoing, non-trivial invasion risk on the island.

  12. Children's purchase behavior in the snack market: Can branding or lower prices motivate healthier choices?

    PubMed

    Hartmann, Monika; Cash, Sean B; Yeh, Ching-Hua; Landwehr, Stefanie C; McAlister, Anna R

    2017-10-01

    Children's dietary-related diseases and their associated costs have expanded dramatically in many countries, making children's food choice a policy issue of increasing relevance. As children spend a considerable amount of money on energy-dense, nutrient-poor (EDNP) products, a better understanding of the main drivers of children's independent food purchase decisions is crucial to move this behavior toward healthier options. The objective of the study is to investigate the role of branding and price in motivating children to choose healthier snack options. The study investigates snack choices of children ages 8 to 11, using a survey and a purchase experiment. The research took place in after-school programs of selected schools in the Boston area. Participants included 116 children. Products in the choice experiment differed on three factors: product type, brand, and price. Data were analyzed using aggregated and mixed logit models. Children's purchase decisions are primarily determined by product type (Importance Value (IV) 56.6%), while brand (IV 22.8%) and price (IV 20.6%) prove to be of less relevance. Only those children who state that they like the familiar brand reveal a preference for the branded product in their purchase decision. Price is a significant predictor of choice when controlling for whether or not children obtain an allowance. It is not simple brand awareness but a child's liking of the brand that determines whether a brand is successful in motivating a child to choose a product. The extent of children's experience with money influences their price responsiveness. To the extent that children who receive an allowance are primarily the ones buying food snacks, higher prices for EDNP snacks could be successful in motivating children to choose a healthier option. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Going Cheap: Determinants of Bird Price in the Taiwanese Pet Market

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background International wildlife trade is the largest emerging source of vertebrate invasive alien species. In order to prevent invasions, it is essential to understand the mechanics of trade and, in particular, which traded species are most likely to be released or escape into the wild. A species’ economic value is a key factor, because we expect cheaper species to be less assiduously secured against escaping, and more likely to be deliberately released. Here, we investigate determinants of the price of species in the Taiwanese bird trade. Taiwan is an international hub for bird trade, and several native species are threatened by alien bird species. Methodology We investigated the relationship between the traded species sale price in Taiwan and the species availability for trade (the number of birds for sale, geographic range size and their origin, conservation and CITES status) and traits (body size, coloration, song attractiveness). We used phylogenetic generalized least squares models, with multi-model inference, to assess the variables that are best related to the price of birds in the Taiwanese pet trade. Principal Findings / Conclusions We found that species available for sale in larger numbers, native to Taiwan, not globally endangered, and small-bodied are all relatively cheaper, as too are species lacking yellow coloration and without attractive songs. Our models of price revealed high levels of phylogenetic correlation, and hence that closely related species tended to be sold for similar prices. We suggest that, on the basis of price, native species are more likely to be deliberately or accidentally released than alien species. Nevertheless, our survey of bird shops recorded 160 species alien to Taiwan (7,631 individuals), several of which are for sale cheaply and in large numbers. Alien bird species in trade therefore present an ongoing, non-trivial invasion risk on the island. PMID:26017386

  14. Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO2 prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa, Rita; Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Soares, Maria Joana

    2014-11-01

    We characterize the interrelation of CO2 prices with energy prices (electricity, gas and coal), and with economic activity. Previous studies have relied on time-domain techniques, such as Vector Auto-Regressions. In this study, we use multivariate wavelet analysis, which operates in the time-frequency domain. Wavelet analysis provides convenient tools to distinguish relations at particular frequencies and at particular time horizons. Our empirical approach has the potential to identify relations getting stronger and then disappearing over specific time intervals and frequencies. We are able to examine the coherency of these variables and lead-lag relations at different frequencies for the time periods in focus.

  15. Price subsidies and the market for mosquito nets in developing countries: A study of Tanzania's discount voucher scheme.

    PubMed

    Gingrich, Chris D; Hanson, Kara; Marchant, Tanya; Mulligan, Jo-Ann; Mponda, Hadji

    2011-07-01

    This study uses a partial equilibrium simulation model to explore how price subsidies for insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) affect households' purchases of ITNs. The model describes the ITN market in a typical developing country and is applied to the situation in Tanzania, where the Tanzania National Voucher Scheme (TNVS) provides a targeted subsidy to vulnerable population groups by means of a discount voucher. The data for this study come from a nationally-representative household survey completed July-August 2006 covering over 4300 households in 21 districts. The simulation results show the impact of the voucher program on ITN coverage among target households, namely those that experienced the birth of a child. More specifically, the share of target households purchasing an ITN increased from 18 to 62 percent because of the discount voucher. The model also suggests that the voucher program could cause the retail ITN price to rise due to an overall increase in demand. As a result, ITN purchases by households without a voucher may actually decline. The simulation model suggests that additional increases toward the stated goal of 80 percent ITN coverage for pregnant women and children could best be achieved through a combination of "catch up" mass distribution programs and expanding the target group for the voucher program to cover additional households. The model can be employed in other countries considering use of a targeted price subsidy for ITNs, and could be adapted to assess the impact of subsidies for other public health commodities.

  16. Analysis of the Pricing Process in Electricity Market using Multi-Agent Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimomura, Takahiro; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

    Many electric utilities world-wide have been forced to change their ways of doing business, from vertically integrated mechanisms to open market systems. We are facing urgent issues about how we design the structures of power market systems. In order to settle down these issues, many studies have been made with market models of various characteristics and regulations. The goal of modeling analysis is to enrich our understanding of fundamental process that may appear. However, there are many kinds of modeling methods. Each has drawback and advantage about validity and versatility. This paper presents two kinds of methods to construct multi-agent market models. One is based on game theory and another is based on reinforcement learning. By comparing the results of the two methods, they can advance in validity and help us figure out potential problems in electricity markets which have oligopolistic generators, demand fluctuation and inelastic demand. Moreover, this model based on reinforcement learning enables us to consider characteristics peculiar to electricity markets which have plant unit characteristics, seasonable and hourly demand fluctuation, real-time regulation market and operating reserve market. This model figures out importance of the share of peak-load-plants and the way of designing operating reserve market.

  17. Marketing Continuing Education: A Study of Price Strategies. Occasional Papers in Continuing Education, No. 11.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    The objective of the study conducted at the Centre for Continuing Education (CCE) at the University of British Columbia was to determine that threshold pricing not only existed for continuing education courses, but also was applicable to an administrative decision-making structure. The first part of the three-part investigation analyzed consumer…

  18. Marketing Continuing Education: A Study of Price Strategies. Occasional Papers in Continuing Education, No. 11.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    The objective of the study conducted at the Centre for Continuing Education (CCE) at the University of British Columbia was to determine that threshold pricing not only existed for continuing education courses, but also was applicable to an administrative decision-making structure. The first part of the three-part investigation analyzed consumer…

  19. Research on the Use of Educational Products: (4) Marketing Research: At What Prices?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosenau, Fred S.

    The production and distribution of educational materials developed by researchers is considered. The current practice of turning over federally or foundation funded products to commercial producers raises the question of pricing policies of these firms as compared to the policies of nonprofit development agencies. Comparative costs of producing…

  20. Affordability of adult HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries: modelling price determinants for a better insight of the market functioning.

    PubMed

    Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Singh, Sauman; Dongmo-Nguimfack, Boniface; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a landscape of the global antiretroviral (ARV) market by analyzing the transactional data on donor-funded ARV procurement between 2003 and 2015, and the ARV price determinants. The data were obtained from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) managed by the AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the WHO, and it consists of information that covers approximately 80% of the total donor-funded adult ARV transactions procurement. ExWorks prices and procured quantities were standardized according to the guidelines in terms of yearly doses. Descriptive statistics on quantities and prices show the main trends of the ARV market. Ordinary least squares estimation was carried out for the whole sample, then stratified according to the type of supplier (originator and generic) and controlled for time and geographical fixed-effects. Given that analyses were carried out on a public dataset on ARV transactional prices from the GPRM, ethics are respected and consent was not necessary. Originator medicines are on average the least expensive in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where at the same time, generic medicines are on average the most expensive. By contrast, originator medicines are the most expensive in Europe and Central Asia, and generic medicines are the least expensive. In fact, the data suggest mixed strategies by ARV suppliers to exploit opportunities for profit maximization and to adapt to the specific conditions of market competition in each region. Our results also suggest that the expiration of patents is not sufficient to boost additional developments in generic competition (at least in the ARV market) and that formal or informal agreements between generic firms may de facto slow down or even reverse long-term trends towards price decreases. Our findings provide an improved understanding of the ARV market that can help countries strengthen policy measures to increase their bargaining power in price negotiations and the use of TRIPS

  1. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better?

    PubMed Central

    Doran, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Hyosun Kim’s report "Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters" aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it PMID:27239884

  2. Priceless prices and marine food webs: Long-term patterns of change and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight as reflected by the seafood market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pincinato, R. B. M.; Gasalla, M. A.

    2010-10-01

    The lack of market variables in fishery systems (i.e., prices and quantities) has often been cited as one reason for the particular difficulty of understanding whole marine ecosystem change and its management under a broader ecosystem perspective. This paper shows the results of efforts to tackle this problem in the South Brazil Bight by compiling and analyzing in-depth an unprecedented 40-year database from the region’s largest wholesale seafood market, based in the megacity of São Paulo. Fishery landings and market values for the period 1968-2007 were analyzed primarily by updated trophic level classes and multispecies indicators including the (1) marine trophic index (MTI), (2) weighted price, and (3) log relative price index (LRPI) which relates prices and trophic levels. Moreover, an inferential analysis of major seafood category statistical trends in market prices and quantities and their positive and negative correlations was undertaken. In general, these market trends contributed substantially to identifying and clarifying the changes that occurred. Considerations of the behavior of demand, supply and markets are included. In particular, while the MTI did not support a “fishing down the marine food web” hypothesis, other indicators did show the continued scarcity of major high trophic level categories and fisheries target species. Overall, the results indicate that the analysis of fishery landings, or of certain other indicators alone, can mask real changes. Rather, a joint ecological-econometric analysis provides better evidence of the direction of ecosystem pressures and stock health. This method for detecting market changes across the food web may be particularly helpful for systems considered data-poor but where fish market data have been archived. This study further elucidates historical changes and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight ecosystem.

  3. Retail marijuana purchases in designer and commercial markets in New York City: sales units, weights, and prices per gram.

    PubMed

    Sifaneck, Stephen J; Ream, Geoffrey L; Johnson, Bruce D; Dunlap, Eloise

    2007-09-01

    This paper documents the bifurcation of the market for commercial marijuana from the market for designer marijuana in New York City. Commercial marijuana is usually grown outdoors, imported to NYC, and of average quality. By contrast, several varities of designer marijuana are usually grown indoors from specially bred strains and carefully handled for maximum quality. The mechanisms for marijuana sales include street/park sellers, delivery services, private sales, and storefronts. Retail sales units vary from 5 dollars to 50 dollars and more, but the actual weights and price per gram of retail marijuana purchases lacks scientific precision. Ethnographic staff recruited marijuana purchasers who used digital scales to weigh a purposive sample of 99 marijuana purchases. Results indicate clear differences in price per gram between the purchases of commercial (average 8.20 dollars/g) and designer (average 18.02 dollars/g) marijuana. Designer purchases are more likely to be made by whites, downtown (Lower East Side/Union Square area), via delivery services, and in units of 10 dollar bags, 50 dollar cubes, and eighth and quarter ounces. Commercial marijuana purchases are more likely to be made by blacks, uptown (Harlem), via street dealers, and in units of 5 dollar and 20 dollar bags. Imported commercial types Arizona and Chocolate were only found uptown, while designer brand names describing actual strains like Sour Diesel and White Widow were only found downtown. Findings indicate clear divisions between commercial and designer marijuana markets in New York City. The extent that these differences may be based upon different THC potencies is a matter for future research.

  4. Retail Marijuana Purchases in Designer and Commercial Markets in New York City: Sales Units, Weights, and Prices per Gram

    PubMed Central

    Sifaneck, Stephen J.; Ream, Geoffrey L.; Johnson, Bruce D.; Dunlap, Eloise

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the bifurcation of the market for commercial marijuana from the market for designer marijuana in New York City. Commercial marijuana is usually grown outdoors, imported to NYC, and of average quality. By contrast, several strains of designer marijuana are usually grown indoors from specially-bred strains and carefully handled for maximum quality. The mechanisms for selling include street/park sellers, delivery services, private sales, and storefronts. Retail sales units vary from $5 to $50 and more, but the actual weights and price per gram of retail marijuana purchases lacks scientific precision. Ethnographic staff recruited marijuana purchasers who used digital scales to weigh a purposive sample of 99 marijuana purchases. Results indicate clear differences in price per gram between the purchases of commercial (avg. $8.20/gram) and designer (avg. $18.02/gram) marijuana. Designer purchases are more likely to be made by whites, downtown (Lower East Side/Union Square area), via delivery services, and in units of $10 bags, $50 cubes, and eighth and quarter ounces. Commercial marijuana purchases are more likely to be made by blacks, uptown (Harlem), via street dealers, and in units of $5 and $20 bags. Imported commercial types Arizona and Chocolate were only found uptown, while designer brand names describing actual strains like Sour Diesel and White Widow were only found downtown. Findings indicate clear divisions between commercial and designer marijuana markets in New York City. The extent that these differences may be based upon different THC potencies is a matter for future research. PMID:17055670

  5. ℓ p-Norm Multikernel Learning Approach for Stock Market Price Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

    2012-01-01

    Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ1-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓp-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ1-norm multiple support vector regression model. PMID:23365561

  6. Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook study for 1980 to 88: January 1983 update

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Costogue, E.; Pellin, R.

    1983-01-01

    Photovoltaic solar cell arrays which convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective, alternative energy source provided that an adequate supply of low priced materials and automated fabrication techniques are available. Presently, silicon is the most promising cell material for achieving the near term cost goals of the Photovoltaics Program. Electronic grade silicon is produced primarily for the semiconductor industry with the photovoltaic industry using, in most cases, the production rejects of slightly lower grade material. Therefore, the future availability of adequate supplies of low cost silicon is one of the major concerns of the Photovoltaic Program. The supply outlook for silicon with emphasis on pricing is updated and is based primarily on an industry survey conducted by a JPL consultant. This survey included interviews with polycrystalline silicon manufacturers, a large cross section of silicon users and silicon solar cell manufacturers.

  7. ℓ(p)-Norm multikernel learning approach for stock market price forecasting.

    PubMed

    Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

    2012-01-01

    Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ(p)-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression model.

  8. Solution of time fractional Black-Scholes European option pricing equation arising in financial market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravi Kanth, A. S. V.; Aruna, K.

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we present fractional differential transform method (FDTM) and modified fractional differential transform method (MFDTM) for the solution of time fractional Black-Scholes European option pricing equation. The method finds the solution without any discretization, transformation, or restrictive assumptions with the use of appropriate initial or boundary conditions. The efficiency and exactitude of the proposed methods are tested by means of three examples.

  9. Asset price dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous trading strategies and time delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sansone, Alessandro; Garofalo, Giuseppe

    2007-08-01

    In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian agents who process market information with different time delays. Each class of investors is characterized by path dependent risk aversion. We also allow for the possibility of evolutionary switching between trend following and contrarian strategies. We find that the system shows periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics as well as synchronization between technical traders. Furthermore, the model is able to generate time series of returns that exhibit statistical properties similar to those of the S&P 500 index, which is characterized by excess kurtosis, volatility clustering and long memory.

  10. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  11. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  12. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  13. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  14. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  15. Price regulation, new entry, and information shock on pharmaceutical market in Taiwan: a nationwide data-based study from 2001 to 2004.

    PubMed

    Hsiao, Fei-Yuan; Tsai, Yi-Wen; Huang, Weng-Foung

    2010-07-25

    Using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) as a case, we used Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) database, to empirically explore the association between policy interventions (price regulation, new drug entry, and an information shock) and drug expenditures, utilization, and market structure between 2001 and 2004. All NSAIDs prescribed in ambulatory visits in the NHI system during our study period were included and aggregated quarterly. Segmented regression analysis for interrupted time series was used to examine the associations between two price regulations, two new drug entries (cyclooxygennase-2 inhibitors) and the rofecoxib safety signal and expenditures and utilization of all NSAIDs. Herfindahl index (HHI) was applied to further examine the association between these interventions and market structure of NSAIDs. New entry was the only variable that was significantly correlated with changes of expenditures (positive change, p = 0.02) and market structure of the NSAIDs market in the NHI system. The correlation between price regulation (first price regulation, p = 0.62; second price regulation, p = 0.26) and information shock (p = 0.31) and drug expenditure were not statistically significant. There was no significant change in the prescribing volume of NSAIDs per rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or osteoarthritis (OA) ambulatory visit during the observational period. The market share of NSAIDs had also been largely substituted by these new drugs up to 50%, in a three-year period and resulted in a more concentrated market structure (HHI 0.17). Our empirical study found that new drug entry was the main driving force behind escalating drug spending, especially by altering the market share.

  16. Price regulation, new entry, and information shock on pharmaceutical market in Taiwan: a nationwide data-based study from 2001 to 2004

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) as a case, we used Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) database, to empirically explore the association between policy interventions (price regulation, new drug entry, and an information shock) and drug expenditures, utilization, and market structure between 2001 and 2004. Methods All NSAIDs prescribed in ambulatory visits in the NHI system during our study period were included and aggregated quarterly. Segmented regression analysis for interrupted time series was used to examine the associations between two price regulations, two new drug entries (cyclooxygennase-2 inhibitors) and the rofecoxib safety signal and expenditures and utilization of all NSAIDs. Herfindahl index (HHI) was applied to further examine the association between these interventions and market structure of NSAIDs. Results New entry was the only variable that was significantly correlated with changes of expenditures (positive change, p = 0.02) and market structure of the NSAIDs market in the NHI system. The correlation between price regulation (first price regulation, p = 0.62; second price regulation, p = 0.26) and information shock (p = 0.31) and drug expenditure were not statistically significant. There was no significant change in the prescribing volume of NSAIDs per rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or osteoarthritis (OA) ambulatory visit during the observational period. The market share of NSAIDs had also been largely substituted by these new drugs up to 50%, in a three-year period and resulted in a more concentrated market structure (HHI 0.17). Conclusions Our empirical study found that new drug entry was the main driving force behind escalating drug spending, especially by altering the market share. PMID:20653979

  17. Quantifying the behavior of price dynamics at opening time in stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Takada, Hideyuki; Nacher, Jose C.

    2014-11-01

    The availability of huge volume of financial data has offered the possibility for understanding the markets as a complex system characterized by several stylized facts. Here we first show that the time evolution of the Japan’s Nikkei stock average index (Nikkei 225) futures follows the resistance and breaking-acceleration effects when the complete time series data is analyzed. However, in stock markets there are periods where no regular trades occur between the close of the market on one day and the next day’s open. To examine these time gaps we decompose the time series data into opening time and intermediate time. Our analysis indicates that for the intermediate time, both the resistance and the breaking-acceleration effects are still observed. However, for the opening time there are almost no resistance and breaking-acceleration effects, and volatility is always constantly high. These findings highlight unique dynamic differences between stock markets and forex market and suggest that current risk management strategies may need to be revised to address the absence of these dynamic effects at the opening time.

  18. Pricing health behavior interventions to promote adoption: lessons from the marketing and business literature.

    PubMed

    Ribisl, Kurt M; Leeman, Jennifer; Glasser, Allison M

    2014-06-01

    The relatively high cost of delivering many public health interventions limits their potential for broad public impact by reducing their likelihood of adoption and maintenance over time. Practitioners identify cost as the primary factor for which interventions they select to implement, but researchers rarely disseminate cost information or consider its importance when developing new interventions. A new approach is proposed whereby intervention developers assess what individuals and agencies adopting their interventions are willing to pay and then design interventions that are responsive to this price range. The ultimate goal is to develop effective and affordable interventions, called lean interventions, which are widely adopted and have greater public health impact.

  19. Market review - market values summary/June market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-01

    This article is the June 1995 uranium market summary. In this reporting period, there were five concentrates transactions, two long-term natural uranium transactions, two natural UF6 transactions, three long-term enrichment transactions, but there were no spot conversion or enrichment deals. Active uranium supply and demand both fell sharply, but the supply/demand ratio rose. Prices were steady to increasing.

  20. Analyzing reliability of virtual machine instances with dynamic pricing in the public cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, Seung-Hwan; Thakur, Gautam; Horey, James L

    2014-01-01

    This study presents reliability analysis of virtual machine instances in public cloud environments in the face of dynamic pricing. Different from traditional fixed pricing, dynamic pricing allows price to dynamically fluctuate over arbitrary period of time according to external factors such as supply and demand, excess capacity, etc. This pricing option introduces a new type of fault: virtual machine instances may be unexpectedly terminated due to conflicts in the original bid price and the current offered price. This new class of fault under dynamic pricing may be more dominant than traditional faults in cloud computing environments, where resource availability associated with traditional faults is often above 99.9%. To address and understand this new type of fault, we translated two classic reliability metrics, mean time between failures and availability, to the Amazon Web Services spot market using historical price data. We also validated our findings by submitting actual bids in the spot market. We found that overall, our historical analysis and experimental validation lined up well. Based upon these experimental results, we also provided suggestions and techniques to maximize overall reliability of virtual machine instances under dynamic pricing.