Resequencing of the Phytophthora ramorum genome to characterize genetic variation and population dynamics of the invasive pathogen

Treesearch

Jennifer Yuzon; David M. Rizzo; Mathu Malar C; Sucheta Tripathy; Takao Kasuga

2017-01-01

Phytophthora ramorum has spread and diversified throughout California’s northwestern coast since its introduction in the 1990s. Tracking the spread of P. ramorum and the functional response of the pathogen to the environment is of particular interest to managing the epidemic. Using genetic tools such as microsatellite...

The role of China in the global spread of the current cholera pandemic.

PubMed

Didelot, Xavier; Pang, Bo; Zhou, Zhemin; McCann, Angela; Ni, Peixiang; Li, Dongfang; Achtman, Mark; Kan, Biao

2015-03-01

Epidemics and pandemics of cholera, a severe diarrheal disease, have occurred since the early 19th century and waves of epidemic disease continue today. Cholera epidemics are caused by individual, genetically monomorphic lineages of Vibrio cholerae: the ongoing seventh pandemic, which has spread globally since 1961, is associated with lineage L2 of biotype El Tor. Previous genomic studies of the epidemiology of the seventh pandemic identified three successive sub-lineages within L2, designated waves 1 to 3, which spread globally from the Bay of Bengal on multiple occasions. However, these studies did not include samples from China, which also experienced multiple epidemics of cholera in recent decades. We sequenced the genomes of 71 strains isolated in China between 1961 and 2010, as well as eight from other sources, and compared them with 181 published genomes. The results indicated that outbreaks in China between 1960 and 1990 were associated with wave 1 whereas later outbreaks were associated with wave 2. However, the previously defined waves overlapped temporally, and are an inadequate representation of the shape of the global genealogy. We therefore suggest replacing them by a series of tightly delineated clades. Between 1960 and 1990 multiple such clades were imported into China, underwent further microevolution there and then spread to other countries. China was thus both a sink and source during the pandemic spread of V. cholerae, and needs to be included in reconstructions of the global patterns of spread of cholera.

The Changing Geography of U.S. Hispanics from 1990-2006: A Shift to the South and Midwest

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haverluk, Terrence W.; Trautman, Laurie D.

2008-01-01

Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Hispanic population increased by 14 million, which is the largest decadal population rise in United States history. This increase was not spread evenly throughout the United States, nor was it isolated to locations that already had large Hispanic populations. On the contrary, areas that previously had a relatively…

Research on Dynamic Monitoring (1990-2010)of Schistosomiasis Vector- Snail at Xinmin Beach, Gaoyou Lake, Jiangsu Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhaoyan; Li, Chuanrong; Tang, Lingli; Zhou, Xiaonong; Ma, Lingling

2014-11-01

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease that menaces human health. In terms of impact, this disease is second only to malaria as the most devastating parasitic disease. Oncomelania hupensis (snail) is the unique intermediate host of schistosoma, so monitoring and controlling of the number of snail is key to reduce the risk of schistosomiasis transmission. Remote sensing technology can real-timely access the large-scale environmental factors related to snail breeding and reproduction, and can also provide the efficient information to determine the location, area, and spread tendency of snail. Based on the T-S (Takagi-Sugeno) fuzzy information theory, a quantitative remote sensing monitoring model of snail has been developed in previous wok. In a case study, this paper will take Xinmin beach, Gaoyou Lake as new research area, carry out 20 years (1990 - 2010) dynamic monitoring, to further validate the effectiveness of the T-S Fuzzy RS snail monitoring model.

Research on Dynamic Monitoring (1990-2010) of Schistosomiasis Vector-Snail at Xinmin Beach, Gaoyou Lake, Jiangsu Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhaoyan; Li, Chuanrong; Tang, Lingli; Zhou, Xiaonong; Ma, Lingling

2014-11-01

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease that menaces human health. In terms of impact, this disease is second only to malaria as the most devastating parasitic disease. Oncomelania hupensis (snail) is the unique intermediate host of schistosoma, so monitoring and controlling of the number of snail is key to reduce the risk of schistosomiasis transmission. Remote sensing technology can real-timely access the large-scale environmental factors related to snail breeding and reproduction, and can also provide the efficient information to determine the location, area, and spread tendency of snail. Based on the T-S (Takagi-Sugeno) fuzzy information theory, a quantitative remote sensing monitoring model of snail has been developed in previous wok. In a case study, this paper will take Xinmin beach, Gaoyou Lake as new research area, carry out 20 years (1990 - 2010) dynamic monitoring, to further validate the effectiveness of the T-S Fuzzy RS snail monitoring model.

A simple physical model for forest fire spread

Treesearch

E. Koo; P. Pagni; J. Woycheese; S. Stephens; D. Weise; J. Huff

2005-01-01

Based on energy conservation and detailed heat transfer mechanisms, a simple physical model for fire spread is presented for the limit of one-dimensional steady-state contiguous spread of a line fire in a thermally-thin uniform porous fuel bed. The solution for the fire spread rate is found as an eigenvalue from this model with appropriate boundary conditions through a...

Epidemic yellow fever in Borno State of Nigeria: characterisation of hospitalised patients.

PubMed

Ekenna, O; Chikwem, J O; Mohammed, I; Durojaiye, S O

2010-01-01

In 1990, an outbreak of a febrile illness with high mortality was reported in border villages, later spreading to other areas of Borno State of Nigeria. To present a report of the investigation of that outbreak, with emphasis on the characterisation of hospitalised patients. Selected centres reporting cases of acute febrile illness during the months of August to December, 1990 were visited, to establish surveillance. Case investigation forms were used to obtain clinical and demographic data; and blood samples were obtained from patients for analyses. Only hospitalised patients with adequate clinical information from three centres were included in the analysis. The outbreak, which involved five of the six health zones in the state, and spread into adjoining Gongola state and the Cameroun Republic, was caused by the yellow fever virus. Fever, central nervous system (CNS) involvement, jaundice and haemorrhage were the most common clinical manifestations of 102 hospitalised patients. Eighty -three (81%) of hospitalised patients died and most within two days of admission. CNS manifestations were more common in dying patients than in survivors. The reasons for this rare outbreak of yellow fever in the dry Savannah belt of Borno State remain unclear. Improved surveillance and more effective prevention strategies are needed to avert the recurrence of such outbreaks.

Educational differences in cigarette smoking among adult population in Estonia, 1990-2010: does the trend fit the model of tobacco epidemic?

PubMed

Pärna, Kersti; Pürjer, Mari-Liis; Ringmets, Inge; Tekkel, Mare

2014-07-10

In developed countries, smoking spreads through society like an epidemic in which adults from higher socioeconomic groups are the first to adopt and earlier to quit smoking, and in which exists a lag in adoption of smoking between men and women. The objective of this study was to describe trends in daily and occasional smoking, to investigate association between smoking status and education, and to examine if the associations in 1990-2010 in Estonia fit the pattern predicted by the model of tobacco epidemic. The study was based on a 20-64-year-old subsample (n = 18740) of nationally representative postal cross-sectional surveys conducted every second year in Estonia during 1990-2010. Cigarette smoking and education were examined. χ2 test for trend was used to determine daily and occasional smoking trends over study years. Multinomial logistic regression model was used to test educational differences in daily and occasional smoking for every study year. Adjusted relative risk ratios (RRRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. In 1990-2010, daily smoking varied largely between genders showing decreasing trend among men, but not among women. In 2010, one third of men and one fifth of women were daily smokers. Daily smoking was not clearly associated with education among men in 1990-1994 and among women in 1990-2000. Men revealed inverse relationship between daily smoking and education since 1996, but women since 2002. In 2010, compared to men and women with higher education, relative risk ratio of daily smoking was 2.92 (95% CI = 2.01-4.25) among men and 2.29 (95% CI = 1.65-3.17) among women with secondary education, but 4.98 (95% CI 3.12-7.94) among men and 6.62 (95% CI = 4.07-10.76) among women with basic education.In 1990-2010, occasional smoking was stable and similar (varying between 7-10%) among men and women, no association with education was found. Daily smoking patterns in Estonia fit the model of tobacco epidemic in developed countries. Educational differences in daily smoking highlight the importance of addressing smoking behaviour in the general population by educational subgroups in Estonia.

A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

2018-03-01

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

Spatiotemporal mathematical modelling of mutations of the dhps gene in African Plasmodium falciparum.

PubMed

Flegg, Jennifer A; Patil, Anand P; Venkatesan, Meera; Roper, Cally; Naidoo, Inbarani; Hay, Simon I; Sibley, Carol Hopkins; Guerin, Philippe J

2013-07-17

Plasmodium falciparum has repeatedly evolved resistance to first-line anti-malarial drugs, thwarting efforts to control and eliminate the disease and in some period of time this contributed largely to an increase in mortality. Here a mathematical model was developed to map the spatiotemporal trends in the distribution of mutations in the P. falciparum dihydropteroate synthetase (dhps) gene that confer resistance to the anti-malarial sulphadoxine, and are a useful marker for the combination of alleles in dhfr and dhps that is highly correlated with resistance to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). The aim of this study was to present a proof of concept for spatiotemporal modelling of trends in anti-malarial drug resistance that can be applied to monitor trends in resistance to components of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) or other anti-malarials, as they emerge or spread. Prevalence measurements of single nucleotide polymorphisms in three codon positions of the dihydropteroate synthetase (dhps) gene from published studies of dhps mutations across Africa were used. A model-based geostatistics approach was adopted to create predictive surfaces of the dhps540E mutation over the spatial domain of sub-Saharan Africa from 1990-2010. The statistical model was implemented within a Bayesian framework and hence quantified the associated uncertainty of the prediction of the prevalence of the dhps540E mutation in sub-Saharan Africa. The maps presented visualize the changing prevalence of the dhps540E mutation in sub-Saharan Africa. These allow prediction of space-time trends in the parasite resistance to SP, and provide probability distributions of resistance prevalence in places where no data are available as well as insight on the spread of resistance in a way that the data alone do not allow. The results of this work will be extended to design optimal sampling strategies for the future molecular surveillance of resistance, providing a proof of concept for similar techniques to design optimal strategies to monitor resistance to ACT.

Demography and Intercontinental Spread of the USA300 Community-Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Lineage

PubMed Central

Glaser, Philippe; Martins-Simões, Patrícia; Villain, Adrien; Barbier, Maxime; Tristan, Anne; Bouchier, Christiane; Ma, Laurence; Bes, Michele; Laurent, Frederic; Guillemot, Didier; Wirth, Thierry

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) was recognized worldwide during the 1990s; in less than a decade, several genetically distinct CA-MRSA lineages carrying Panton-Valentine leukocidin genes have emerged on every continent. Most notably, in the United States, the sequence type 18-IV (ST8-IV) clone known as USA300 has become highly prevalent, outcompeting methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) and other MRSA strains in both community and hospital settings. CA-MRSA bacteria are much less prevalent in Europe, where the European ST80-IV European CA-MRSA clone, USA300 CA-MRSA strains, and other lineages, such as ST22-IV, coexist. The question that arises is whether the USA300 CA-MRSA present in Europe (i) was imported once or on very few occasions, followed by a broad geographic spread, anticipating an increased prevalence in the future, or (ii) derived from multiple importations with limited spreading success. In the present study, we applied whole-genome sequencing to a collection of French USA300 CA-MRSA strains responsible for sporadic cases and micro-outbreaks over the past decade and United States ST8 MSSA and MRSA isolates. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the population structure of the French isolates is the product of multiple introductions dating back to the onset of the USA300 CA-MRSA clone in North America. Coalescent-based demography of the USA300 lineage shows that a strong expansion occurred during the 1990s concomitant with the acquisition of the arginine catabolic mobile element and antibiotic resistance, followed by a sharp decline initiated around 2008, reminiscent of the rise-and-fall pattern previously observed in the ST80 lineage. A future expansion of the USA300 lineage in Europe is therefore very unlikely. PMID:26884428

An effective wind speed for models of fire spread

Treesearch

Ralph M. Nelson

2002-01-01

In previous descriptions of wind-slope interaction and the spread rate of wildland fires it is assumed that the separate effects of wind and slope are independent and additive and that corrections for these effects may be applied to spread rates computed from existing rate of spread models. A different approach is explored in the present paper in which the upslope...

1990 astronaut candidate Walz prepares snack during wilderness training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Sitting on a log, Carl E. Walz takes a break from survival training activities to prepare a snack. Walz spreads peanut butter on a cracker during a wilderness survival training course at Fairchild Air Force Base in the state of Washington. Walz, one of 23 1990 Group 13 astronaut candidates, participated in the training near Spokane, Washington, 08-26-90 through 08-30-90. The survival exercise is part of a year's evaluation and training program.

The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: 1990 version (GRAM-90). Part 1: Technical/users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Alyea, F. N.; Cunnold, D. M.; Jeffries, W. R., III; Johnson, D. L.

1991-01-01

A technical description of the NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model 1990 version (GRAM-90) is presented with emphasis on the additions and new user's manual descriptions of the program operation aspects of the revised model. Some sample results for the new middle atmosphere section and comparisons with results from a three dimensional circulation model are provided. A programmer's manual with more details for those wishing to make their own GRAM program adaptations is also presented.

Non-Orthogonality of Seafloor Spreading: A New Look at Fast Spreading Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Gordon, R. G.

2015-12-01

Most of Earth's surface is created by seafloor spreading. While most seafloor spreading is orthogonal, that is, the strike of mid-ocean ridge segments is perpendicular to nearby transform faults, examples of significant non-orthogonality have been noted since the 1970s, in particular in regions of slow seafloor spreading such as the western Gulf of Aden with non-orthogonality up to 45°. In contrast, here we focus on fast and ultra-fast seafloor spreading along the East Pacific Rise. To estimate non-orthogonality, we compare ridge-segment strikes with the direction of plate motion determined from the angular velocity that best fits all the data along the boundary of a single plate pair [DeMets et al., 2010]. The advantages of this approach include greater accuracy and the ability to estimate non-orthogonality where there are no nearby transform faults. Estimating the strikes of fast-spreading mid-ocean ridge segments present several challenges as non-transform offsets on various scales affect the estimate of the strike. While spreading is orthogonal or nearly orthogonal along much of the East Pacific Rise, some ridge segments along the Pacific-Nazca boundary near 30°S and near 16°S-22°S deviate from orthogonality by as much as 6°-12° even when we exclude the portions of mid-ocean ridge segments involved in overlapping spreading centers. Thus modest but significant non-orthogonality occurs where seafloor spreading is the fastest on the planet. If a plume lies near the ridge segment, we assume it contributes to magma overpressure along the ridge segment [Abelson & Agnon, 1997]. We further assume that the contribution to magma overpressure is proportional to the buoyancy flux of the plume [Sleep, 1990] and inversely proportional to the distance between the mid-ocean ridge segment and a given plume. We find that the non-orthogonal angle tends to decrease with increasing spreading rate and with increasing distance between ridge segment and plume.

Over Three years of Monitoring 129I spread in Pacific Ocean After the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, C. C.; Burr, G.; Jull, A. J. T.; Priyadarshi, A.; Thiemens, M. H.; Biddulph, D.; Russell, J. L.

2014-12-01

129I is a long-lived radionuclide that has been used as a useful environmental tracer. At present, the global 129I in surface water is about 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than pre-1990 levels. The anthropogenic 129I signal produced from industrial nuclear fuel reprocessing plants is known to be the primary source of 129I in marine surface waters of the Atlantic, and elevated 129I values are found globally. The Great East Japan Earthquake and the induced tsunami in 2011 triggered the nuclear shutdowns, failures, and partial meltdowns of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The accident resulted in a series of radioactive material releases into the environment and spread out through atmospheric and ocean circulation. We will present 129I results of water samples collected weekly near Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA for the past 3 years. We also have several measurements collected a year apart from Kaohsiung, Taiwan, which represent west margin of Pacific Ocean, and from Alaska, Washington, and Oregon. By establishing 129I time series, we can observe the spread of 129I in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean that resulted from the accidental releases.

Flame Spread and Extinction Over a Thick Solid Fuel in Low-Velocity Opposed and Concurrent Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feng; Lu, Zhanbin; Wang, Shuangfeng

2016-05-01

Flame spread and extinction phenomena over a thick PMMA in purely opposed and concurrent flows are investigated by conducting systematical experiments in a narrow channel apparatus. The present tests focus on low-velocity flow regime and hence complement experimental data previously reported for high and moderate velocity regimes. In the flow velocity range tested, the opposed flame is found to spread much faster than the concurrent flame at a given flow velocity. The measured spread rates for opposed and concurrent flames can be correlated by corresponding theoretical models of flame spread, indicating that existing models capture the main mechanisms controlling the flame spread. In low-velocity gas flows, however, the experimental results are observed to deviate from theoretical predictions. This may be attributed to the neglect of radiative heat loss in the theoretical models, whereas radiation becomes important for low-intensity flame spread. Flammability limits using oxygen concentration and flow velocity as coordinates are presented for both opposed and concurrent flame spread configurations. It is found that concurrent spread has a wider flammable range than opposed case. Beyond the flammability boundary of opposed spread, there is an additional flammable area for concurrent spread, where the spreading flame is sustainable in concurrent mode only. The lowest oxygen concentration allowing concurrent flame spread in forced flow is estimated to be approximately 14 % O2, substantially below that for opposed spread (18.5 % O2).

Changing roles of propagule, climate, and land use during extralimital colonization of a rose chafer beetle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horak, Jakub; Hui, Cang; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Romportl, Dusan

2013-04-01

Regardless of their ecosystem functions, some insects are threatened when facing environmental changes and disturbances, while others become extremely successful. It is crucial for successful conservation to differentiate factors supporting species' current distributions from those triggering range dynamics. Here, we studied the sudden extralimital colonization of the rose chafer beetle, Oxythyrea funesta, in the Czech Republic. Specifically, we depicted the range expansion using accumulated historical records of first known occurrences and then explained the colonization events using five transformed indices depicting changes in local propagule pressure (LPP), climate, land use, elevation, and landscape structure. The slow occupancy increase of O. funesta before 1990 changed to a phase of rapid occupancy increase after 1990, driven not only by changes in the environment (climate and land use) but also by the spatial accumulation of LPP. Climate was also found to play a significant role but only during the niche-filling stage before 1990, while land use became important during the phase of rapid expansion after 1990. Inland waters (e.g., riparian corridors) also contributed substantially to the spread in the Czech Republic. Our method of using spatially transformed variables to explain the colonization events provides a novel way of detecting factors triggering range dynamics. The results highlight the importance of LPP in driving sudden occupancy increase of extralimital species and recommend the use of LPP as an important predictor for modeling range dynamics.

The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: 1990 version (GRAM-90). Part 2: Program/data listings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Alyea, F. N.; Cunnold, D. M.; Jeffries, W. R., III; Johnson, D. L.

1991-01-01

A new (1990) version of the NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-90) was completed and the program and key data base listing are presented. GRAM-90 incorporate extensive new data, mostly collected under the Middle Atmosphere Program, to produce a completely revised middle atmosphere model (20 to 120 km). At altitudes greater than 120 km, GRAM-90 uses the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere model. Complete listings of all program and major data bases are presented. Also, a test case is included.

On the role of radiation and dimensionality in predicting flow opposed flame spread over thin fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Chenthil; Kumar, Amit

2012-06-01

In this work a flame-spread model is formulated in three dimensions to simulate opposed flow flame spread over thin solid fuels. The flame-spread model is coupled to a three-dimensional gas radiation model. The experiments [1] on downward spread and zero gravity quiescent spread over finite width thin fuel are simulated by flame-spread models in both two and three dimensions to assess the role of radiation and effect of dimensionality on the prediction of the flame-spread phenomena. It is observed that while radiation plays only a minor role in normal gravity downward spread, in zero gravity quiescent spread surface radiation loss holds the key to correct prediction of low oxygen flame spread rate and quenching limit. The present three-dimensional simulations show that even in zero gravity gas radiation affects flame spread rate only moderately (as much as 20% at 100% oxygen) as the heat feedback effect exceeds the radiation loss effect only moderately. However, the two-dimensional model with the gas radiation model badly over-predicts the zero gravity flame spread rate due to under estimation of gas radiation loss to the ambient surrounding. The two-dimensional model was also found to be inadequate for predicting the zero gravity flame attributes, like the flame length and the flame width, correctly. The need for a three-dimensional model was found to be indispensable for consistently describing the zero gravity flame-spread experiments [1] (including flame spread rate and flame size) especially at high oxygen levels (>30%). On the other hand it was observed that for the normal gravity downward flame spread for oxygen levels up to 60%, the two-dimensional model was sufficient to predict flame spread rate and flame size reasonably well. Gas radiation is seen to increase the three-dimensional effect especially at elevated oxygen levels (>30% for zero gravity and >60% for normal gravity flames).

Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

2017-12-01

Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

Effect of Heterogeneous Interest Similarity on the Spread of Information in Mobile Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Narisa; Sui, Guoqin; Yang, Fan

2018-06-01

Mobile social networks (MSNs) are important platforms for spreading news. The fact that individuals usually forward information aligned with their own interests inevitably changes the dynamics of information spread. Thereby, first we present a theoretical model based on the discrete Markov chain and mean field theory to evaluate the effect of interest similarity on the information spread in MSNs. Meanwhile, individuals' interests are heterogeneous and vary with time. These two features result in interest shift behavior, and both features are considered in our model. A leveraging simulation demonstrates the accuracy of our model. Moreover, the basic reproduction number R0 is determined. Further extensive numerical analyses based on the model indicate that interest similarity has a critical impact on information spread at the early spreading stage. Specifically, the information always spreads more quickly and widely if the interest similarity between an individual and the information is higher. Finally, five actual data sets from Sina Weibo illustrate the validity of the model.

Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; Denys Yemshanov; Robert A. Haack; Roger D. Magarey

2014-01-01

Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially...

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

PubMed

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q < qc. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Worldwide Spread of Dengue Virus Type 1

PubMed Central

Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julián; Zanotto, Paolo Marinho de Andrade

2013-01-01

Background DENV-1 is one of the four viral serotypes that causes Dengue, the most common mosquito-borne viral disease of humans. The prevalence of these viruses has grown in recent decades and is now present in more than 100 countries. Limited studies document the spread of DENV-1 over the world despite its importance for human health. Methodology/Principal Findings We used representative DENV-1 envelope gene sequences to unravel the dynamics of viral diffusion under a Bayesian phylogeographic approach. Data included strains from 45 distinct geographic locations isolated from 1944 to 2009. The estimated mean rate of nucleotide substitution was 6.56×10−4 substitutions/site/year. The larger genotypes (I, IV and V) had a distinctive phylogenetic structure and since 1990 they experienced effective population size oscillations. Thailand and Indonesia represented the main sources of strains for neighboring countries. Besides, Asia broadcast lineages into the Americas and the Pacific region that diverged in isolation. Also, a transmission network analysis revealed the pivotal role of Indochina in the global diffusion of DENV-1 and of the Caribbean in the diffusion over the Americas. Conclusions/Significance The study summarizes the spatiotemporal DENV-1 worldwide spread that may help disease control. PMID:23675416

Human-mediated and natural dispersal of an invasive fish in the eastern Great Lakes.

PubMed

Johansson, Mattias L; Dufour, Bradley A; Wellband, Kyle W; Corkum, Lynda D; MacIsaac, Hugh J; Heath, Daniel D

2018-06-01

The globally invasive Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) was introduced to the Great Lakes around 1990, spreading widely and becoming the dominant benthic fish in many areas. The speed and scope of this invasion is remarkable and calls into question conventional secondary spread models and scenarios. We utilized nine microsatellites to identify large-scale genetic structure in Round Goby populations in the eastern Great Lakes, and assessed the role of colonization vs. secondary transport and dispersal in developing this structure. We identified three clusters, corresponding with Lake Huron, eastern Lake Erie, and western Lake Erie plus eastern Lake Ontario, along with three highly divergent populations. Bottleneck analysis identified founder effects in two divergent populations. Regression analyses of isolation by distance and allelic richness vs. distance from the initial invasion site were consistent with limited migration. However, some populations in eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario showed anomalously low genetic distance from the original site of colonization, consistent with secondary transport of large numbers of individuals via ballast water. We conclude that genetic structure of Round Goby in the Great Lakes principally resulted from long-distance secondary transport via ballast water with additional movement of individual via bait buckets and natural dispersal. The success of Round Gobies represents an interesting model for colonization characterization; however, those same attributes present significant challenges for conservation and fisheries management. Current management likely prevents many new species from arriving in the Great Lakes, but fails to address the transport of species within the lakes after they arrive; this is an issue of clear and pressing importance.

Maximum spreading of liquid drop on various substrates with different wettabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Raihan; Choi, Junho; Yang, Sangsun; Kim, Yong-Jin; Lee, Donggeun

2017-09-01

This paper describes a novel model developed for a priori prediction of the maximal spread of a liquid drop on a surface. As a first step, a series of experiments were conducted under precise control of the initial drop diameter, its falling height, roughness, and wettability of dry surfaces. The transient liquid spreading was recorded by a high-speed camera to obtain its maximum spreading under various conditions. Eight preexisting models were tested for accurate prediction of the maximum spread; however, most of the model predictions were not satisfactory except one, in comparison with our experimental data. A comparative scaling analysis of the literature models was conducted to elucidate the condition-dependent prediction characteristics of the models. The conditioned bias in the predictions was mainly attributed to the inappropriate formulations of viscous dissipation or interfacial energy of liquid on the surface. Hence, a novel model based on energy balance during liquid impact was developed to overcome the limitations of the previous models. As a result, the present model was quite successful in predicting the liquid spread in all the conditions.

Hybrid Spreading Mechanisms and T Cell Activation Shape the Dynamics of HIV-1 Infection

PubMed Central

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Groppelli, Elisabetta; Pellegrino, Pierre; Williams, Ian; Borrow, Persephone; Chain, Benjamin M.; Jolly, Clare

2015-01-01

HIV-1 can disseminate between susceptible cells by two mechanisms: cell-free infection following fluid-phase diffusion of virions and by highly-efficient direct cell-to-cell transmission at immune cell contacts. The contribution of this hybrid spreading mechanism, which is also a characteristic of some important computer worm outbreaks, to HIV-1 progression in vivo remains unknown. Here we present a new mathematical model that explicitly incorporates the ability of HIV-1 to use hybrid spreading mechanisms and evaluate the consequences for HIV-1 pathogenenesis. The model captures the major phases of the HIV-1 infection course of a cohort of treatment naive patients and also accurately predicts the results of the Short Pulse Anti-Retroviral Therapy at Seroconversion (SPARTAC) trial. Using this model we find that hybrid spreading is critical to seed and establish infection, and that cell-to-cell spread and increased CD4+ T cell activation are important for HIV-1 progression. Notably, the model predicts that cell-to-cell spread becomes increasingly effective as infection progresses and thus may present a considerable treatment barrier. Deriving predictions of various treatments’ influence on HIV-1 progression highlights the importance of earlier intervention and suggests that treatments effectively targeting cell-to-cell HIV-1 spread can delay progression to AIDS. This study suggests that hybrid spreading is a fundamental feature of HIV infection, and provides the mathematical framework incorporating this feature with which to evaluate future therapeutic strategies. PMID:25837979

Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

2017-09-01

Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com; Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024; Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel onmore » the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.« less

Civil war and the spread of AIDS in Central Africa.

PubMed Central

Smallman-Raynor, M. R.; Cliff, A. D.

1991-01-01

Using ordinary least squares regression techniques this paper demonstrates, for the first time, that the classic association of war and disease substantially accounts for the presently observed geographical distribution of reported clinical AIDS cases in Uganda. Both the spread of HIV 1 infection in the 1980s, and the subsequent development of AIDS to its 1990 spatial pattern, are shown to be significantly and positively correlated with ethnic patterns of recruitment into the Ugandan National Liberation Army (UNLA) after the overthrow of Idi Amin some 10 years earlier in 1979. This correlation reflects the estimated mean incubation period of 8-10 years for HIV 1 and underlines the need for cognizance of historical factors which may have influenced current patterns of AIDS seen in Central Africa. The findings may have important implications for AIDS forecasting and control in African countries which have recently experienced war. The results are compared with parallel analyses of other HIV hypotheses advanced to account for the reported geographical distribution of AIDS in Uganda. PMID:1879492

A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

PubMed

Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

2012-01-01

Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

A Suite of Models to Support the Quantitative Assessment of Spread in Pest Risk Analysis

PubMed Central

Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J.; Baker, Richard H. A.; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

2012-01-01

Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice. PMID:23056174

Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

2015-10-01

In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

Phytophthora ramorum

Treesearch

J. L. Parke; D. M. Rizzo

2011-01-01

P. ramorum Werres, De Cock, & Man in't Veld (2001) appears to be an exotic species introduced from an unknown origin to Europe and western N. America in the mid-1990s, likely on nursery plants (Mascheretti et al. 2008). In California and southwest Oregon, the pathogen spread to native oak and...

Cordia subcordata Lam

Treesearch

James A. Allen

2002-01-01

The genus Cordia contains about 250 species. They occur in tropical to warm temperate regions throughout the world, with the greatest diversity of species in the Neotropics (Wagner and others 1990). Cordia subcordata is apparently native to Malesia but has been spread throughout the Pacific and along Indian Ocean shores. The...

The December 2010 outbreak of a major storm in Saturn's atmosphere: Observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Del Río-Gaztelurrutia, T.; Hueso, R.; Gómez-Forrellad, J. M.; Sanz-Requena, J. F.; Legarreta, J.; García-Melendo, E.; Colas, F.; Lecacheux, J.; Fletcher, L. N.; Barrado-Navascués, D.; Parker, D.

2011-10-01

On December 5, 2010, a major storm erupted in Saturn's northern hemisphere at a planetographic latitude of 37.7 deg [1]. These phenomena are known as "Great White Spots" (GWS) and they have been observed once per Saturn year since the first case confidently reported in 1876. The last event occurred at Saturn's Equator in 1990 [2]. A GWS differs from similar smaller-scale storms in that it generates a planetary-scale disturbance that spreads zonally spanning the whole latitude band. Studies of the 1990 case indicated that the storm produced a long-term substantial change in the cloud and haze structure around the tropopause level, and in the equatorial winds. We report on the evolution and motions of the new GWS and its associated disturbance during the months following the outbreak, based mainly on high quality images obtained in the visual range submitted to the International Outer Planet Watch PVOL database [3], with the 1m telescope at Pic-du-Midi Observatory and 2.2 m telescope at Calar Alto Observatory. The high temporal sampling and coverage allowed us to study the dynamics of the GWS in detail and the multi-wavelength observations provide information on its cloud top structure. We present non-linear simulations using the EPIC code of the evolution of the potential vorticity generated by an impulsive and localized Gaussian heat pulse that compare extraordinary well to the observed cloud field evolution.

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

PubMed

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Hybrid Epidemics—A Case Study on Computer Worm Conficker

PubMed Central

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm’s spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm’s effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols. PMID:25978309

Proceedings of the Annual Review Conference (13th) on Atmospheric Transmission Models Held in Hanscom AFB, Massachusetts on 5-6 June 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

PL-TR-92-2054 AD-A247 625 PROCEEDINGS OF THE 13TH ANNUAL REVIEW CONFERENCE ON ATMOSPHERIC TRANSMISSION MODELS, 5-6 JUNE 1990 Editors: F. X. Kneizys L...Security Classification) Proceedings of the 13th Annual Review Conference on Atmospheric Transmission Models. 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Editors, F.X...the 31 papers presented at the Thirteenth Annual Review Conference on Atmospheric Transmission Models held at the Geophysics Laborator-, (ASFC

Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980–2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calle, Leonardo; Canadell, Josep G.; Patra, Prabir

We present a synthesis of the land-atmosphere carbon flux from land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Asia using multiple data sources and paying particular attention to deforestation and forest regrowth fluxes. The data sources are quasi-independent and include the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization-Forest Resource Assessment (FAO-FRA 2015; country-level inventory estimates), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3), the 'Houghton' bookkeeping model that incorporates FAO-FRA data, an ensemble of 8 state-of-the-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM), and 2 recently published independent studies using primarily remote sensing techniques. The estimates are aggregated spatially to Southeast, East, and Southmore » Asia and temporally for three decades, 1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. Since 1980, net carbon emissions from LULCC in Asia were responsible for 20%–40% of global LULCC emissions, with emissions from Southeast Asia alone accounting for 15%–25% of global LULCC emissions during the same period. In the 2000s and for all Asia, three estimates (FAO-FRA, DGVM, Houghton) were in agreement of a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with mean estimates ranging between 0.24 to 0.41 Pg C yr -1, whereas EDGARv4.3 suggested a net carbon sink of -0.17 Pg C yr -1. Three of 4 estimates suggest that LULCC carbon emissions declined by at least 34% in the preceding decade (1990–2000). Spread in the estimates is due to the inclusion of different flux components and their treatments, showing the importance to include emissions from carbon rich peatlands and land management, such as shifting cultivation and wood harvesting, which appear to be consistently underreported.« less

Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980–2009

DOE PAGES

Calle, Leonardo; Canadell, Josep G.; Patra, Prabir; ...

2016-07-08

We present a synthesis of the land-atmosphere carbon flux from land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Asia using multiple data sources and paying particular attention to deforestation and forest regrowth fluxes. The data sources are quasi-independent and include the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization-Forest Resource Assessment (FAO-FRA 2015; country-level inventory estimates), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3), the 'Houghton' bookkeeping model that incorporates FAO-FRA data, an ensemble of 8 state-of-the-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM), and 2 recently published independent studies using primarily remote sensing techniques. The estimates are aggregated spatially to Southeast, East, and Southmore » Asia and temporally for three decades, 1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. Since 1980, net carbon emissions from LULCC in Asia were responsible for 20%–40% of global LULCC emissions, with emissions from Southeast Asia alone accounting for 15%–25% of global LULCC emissions during the same period. In the 2000s and for all Asia, three estimates (FAO-FRA, DGVM, Houghton) were in agreement of a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with mean estimates ranging between 0.24 to 0.41 Pg C yr -1, whereas EDGARv4.3 suggested a net carbon sink of -0.17 Pg C yr -1. Three of 4 estimates suggest that LULCC carbon emissions declined by at least 34% in the preceding decade (1990–2000). Spread in the estimates is due to the inclusion of different flux components and their treatments, showing the importance to include emissions from carbon rich peatlands and land management, such as shifting cultivation and wood harvesting, which appear to be consistently underreported.« less

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

Uncertainty quantification in Rothermel's Model using an efficient sampling method

Treesearch

Edwin Jimenez; M. Yousuff Hussaini; Scott L. Goodrick

2007-01-01

The purpose of the present work is to quantify parametric uncertainty in Rothermel’s wildland fire spread model (implemented in software such as BehavePlus3 and FARSITE), which is undoubtedly among the most widely used fire spread models in the United States. This model consists of a nonlinear system of equations that relates environmental variables (input parameter...

Incentives in U.S. Charter Schools: For-Profit and Nonprofit Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Heath

2008-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between policy, organizational type, and the utilization of extrinsic incentives. Charter school reform spread throughout the country in the 1990s, providing the unique opportunity to study over a thousand new public organizations and the innovative operational decisions they made. Traditional public schools…

Educating Cities in Latin America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Messina, Graciela; Valdés-Cotera, Raúl

2013-01-01

This article considers the development of educating cities from a political perspective, illustrating in detail the diversity of organisations and individuals involved and the challenges they are facing. Bearing in mind that educating cities were established from the 1990s onwards in Europe and spread to other continents from there, the purpose of…

Potential Applications of Social Norms Theory to Academic Advising

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demetriou, Cynthia

2005-01-01

Since the mid-1990s, social norms theory has become prevalent in student development literature and research. Subsequently, social norms interventions to change student behavior have spread across campuses nationwide through marketing campaigns. Theorists and practitioners have applied the social norms approach to primarily health-related student…

The 1990-1991 project summaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Project summaries for 1990-91 at the Georgia Institute of Technology are presented. The following research projects were studied: a lunar surface vehicle model; lunar loader/transporter; trenching and cable-laying device for the lunar surface; a lunar vehicle system for habitat transport and placement; and lunar storage facility.

Spreading dynamics of a SIQRS epidemic model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Wang, Yuanmei; Guan, Zhi-Hong

2014-03-01

In order to investigate the influence of heterogeneity of the underlying networks and quarantine strategy on epidemic spreading, a SIQRS epidemic model on the scale-free networks is presented. Using the mean field theory the spreading dynamics of the virus is analyzed. The spreading critical threshold and equilibria are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the critical threshold value is significantly dependent on the topology of the underlying networks and quarantine rate. The existence of equilibria is determined by threshold value. The stability of disease-free equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved. Numerical simulations confirmed the analytical results.

Rumor spreading model with consideration of forgetting mechanism: A case of online blogging LiveJournal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Laijun; Wang, Qin; Cheng, Jingjing; Chen, Yucheng; Wang, Jiajia; Huang, Wei

2011-07-01

Rumor is an important form of social interaction, and its spreading has a significant impact on people’s lives. In the age of Web, people are using electronic media more frequently than ever before, and blog has become one of the main online social interactions. Therefore, it is essential to learn the evolution mechanism of rumor spreading on homogeneous network in consideration of the forgetting mechanism of spreaders. Here we study a rumor spreading model on an online social blogging platform called LiveJournal. In comparison with the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, we provide a more detailed and realistic description of rumor spreading process with combination of forgetting mechanism and the SIR model of epidemics. A mathematical model has been presented and numerical solutions of the model were used to analyze the impact factors of rumor spreading, such as the average degree, forgetting rate and stifling rate. Our results show that there exist a threshold of the average degree of LiveJournal and above which the influence of rumor reaches saturation. Forgetting mechanism and stifling rate exert great influence on rumor spreading on online social network. The analysis results can guide people’s behaviors in view of the theoretical and practical aspects.

Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

PubMed Central

Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Colizza, Vittoria

2010-01-01

Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939

Elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: lessons learned from success in Thailand.

PubMed

Thisyakorn, Usa

2017-05-01

In 1988, the generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in Thailand began and in the same year the first HIV-exposed infant in Thailand was born at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok. From the early to mid-1990s, an epidemic wave of HIV-infected women and infants occurred. Heterosexual HIV transmission, as described in the Asian Epidemic Model, was the major mode of spread in Thailand, causing an increasing number of HIV-infected pregnant women. The early and concerted multi-sectoral response of Thai society reduced the prevalence of HIV infection in pregnant women from 2% in the mid-1990s to 0.6% in 2015 and mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) from an estimated 20-40% to 1.9%. Thus, Thailand became the first Asian country to achieve the World Health Organization's (WHO) targets for the elimination of MTCT. In this narrative review, the key historic evolutions of the science and policy of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) in Thailand that addressed the four prongs of the recommended WHO PMTCT strategy are described, and the lessons learned are discussed.

A Unified Directional Spectrum for Long and Short Wind-Driven Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elfouhaily, T.; Chapron, B.; Katsaros, K.; Vandemark, D.

1997-01-01

Review of several recent ocean surface wave models finds that while comprehensive in many regards, these spectral models do not satisfy certain additional, but fundamental, criteria. We propose that these criteria include the ability to properly describe diverse fetch conditions and to provide agreement with in situ observations of Cox and Munk [1954] and Jiihne and Riemer [1990] and Hara et al. [1994] data in the high-wavenumber regime. Moreover, we find numerous analytically undesirable aspects such as discontinuities across wavenumber limits, nonphysical tuning or adjustment parameters, and noncentrosymmetric directional spreading functions. This paper describes a two-dimensional wavenumber spectrum valid over all wavenumbers and analytically amenable to usage in electromagnetic models. The two regime model is formulated based on the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) in the long-wave regime and on the work of Phillips [1985] and Kitaigorodskii [1973] at the high wavenumbers. The omnidirectional and wind-dependent spectrum is constructed to agree with past and recent observations including the criteria mentioned above. The key feature of this model is the similarity of description for the high- and low-wavenumber regimes; both forms are posed to stress that the air-sea interaction process of friction between wind and waves (i.e., generalized wave age, u/c) is occurring at all wavelengths simultaneously. This wave age parameterization is the unifying feature of the spectrum. The spectrum's directional spreading function is symmetric about the wind direction and has both wavenumber and wind speed dependence. A ratio method is described that enables comparison of this spreading function with previous noncentrosymmetric forms. Radar data are purposefully excluded from this spectral development. Finally, a test of the spectrum is made by deriving roughness length using the boundary layer model of Kitaigorodskii. Our inference of drag coefficient versus wind speed and wave age shows encouraging agreement with Humidity Exchange Over the Sea (HEXOS) campaign results.

Evolution of spreading rate and H2 production by serpentinization at mid-ocean ridges from 200 Ma to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreani, M.; García del Real, P.; Daniel, I.; Wright, N.; Coltice, N.

2017-12-01

Mid-oceanic ridge (MOR) spreading rate spatially varies today from 20 to 200 mm/yr and geological records attest of important temporal variations, at least during the past 200 My. The spreading rate has a direct impact on the mechanisms accomodating extension (magmatic vs tectonic), hence on the nature of the rocks forming the oceanic lithosphere. The latter is composed of variable amount of magmatic and mantle rocks, that dominate at fast and (ultra-) slow spreading ridges, respectively. Serpentinization of mantle rocks contributes to global fluxes and notably to those of hydrogen and carbon by providing a pathways for dihydrogen (H2) production, carbone storage by mineralization, and carbon reduction to CH4 and possibly complex organic compounds. Quantification of the global chemical impact of serpentinization through geological time requires a coupling of geochemical parameters with plate-tectonic reconstructions. Here we quantify serpentinization extent and concurrent H2 production at MOR from the Jurassic (200 Ma) to present day (0 Ma). We coupled mean values of relevant petro-chemical parameters such as the proportion of mantle rocks, initial iron in olivine, iron redox state in serpentinites, % of serpentinization to high-resolution models of plate motion within the GPlates infrastructure to estimate the lengths in 1 Myr intervals for the global MOR plate boundary (spreading and transform components), and spreading ridges as a function of their rate. The model sensitivity to selected parameters has been tested. The results show that fragmentation of Pangea resulted in elevated H2 rates (>1012 to 1013 mol/yr) starting at 160 Ma compared to Late Mesozoic (<160 Ma) rates (<1011-1012 mol/yr). From 160 Ma to present, the coupled opening of the Atlantic and Indian oceans as well as the variation in spreading rates maintained H2 generation in the 1012 mol/yr level, but with significant excursions mainly related to the length of ultra-slow spreading segments. For the first time, this model offers a framework toward flux modeling at MOR through time. The model can be further implemented by adding supplementary geochemical parameters or serve other geochemical issues.

Fundamental factors versus herding in the 2000 2005 US stock market and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

2006-02-01

We present a general methodology to incorporate fundamental economic factors to the theory of herding developed in our group to describe bubbles and antibubbles. We start from the strong form of rational expectation and derive the general method to incorporate factors in addition to the log-periodic power law (LPPL) signature of herding developed in ours and others’ works. These factors include interest rate, interest spread, historical volatility, implied volatility and exchange rates. Standard statistical AIC and Wilks tests allow us to compare the explanatory power of the different proposed factor models. We find that the historical volatility played the key role before August of 2002. Around October 2002, the interest rate dominated. In the first six months of 2003, the foreign exchange rate became the key factor. Since the end of 2003, all factors have played an increasingly large role. However, the most surprising result is that the best model is the second-order LPPL without any factor. We thus present a scenario for the future evolution of the US stock market based on the extrapolation of the fit of the second-order LPPL formula, which suggests that herding is still the dominating force and that the unraveling of the US stock market antibubble since 2000 is still qualitatively similar to (but quantitatively different from) the Japanese Nikkei case after 1990.

Genome datasets for Calonectria henricotiae and C. pseudonaviculata causing boxwood blight disease and related species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Boxwood blight disease, caused by the fungi Calonectria henricotiae and C. pseudonaviculata, is an emergent threat to natural and managed landscapes worldwide. Boxwood blight emerged for the first time in the U.K. during the 1990s, then spread rapidly throughout Europe. By 2011, the fungus that cau...

Feeding, flight and dispersal in thrips

Treesearch

1991-01-01

The aim of this paper is to amplify some of the general points made in my introductory paper on the order Thysanoptera (Lewis 1990, this proceedings), with particular reference to feeding, flight and dispersal. These aspects of thrips behaviour are clearly of great relevance to the spread and effects of infestations of Taeniothrips inconsequens in...

Reducing seismic risk to highway mobility : assessment and design examples for pile foundations affected by lateral spreading.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

Damage in pile supported structures due to liquefaction and liquefaction induced deformation were reported in past earthquakes around the world : (e.g., Ansal et al. 1999; Seed et al. 1990; EERI 2010, EERI 2011; GEER 2010a, GEER 2010b, GEER 2011). Fo...

(In)Tolerable Zero Tolerance Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickerson, Sean L.

2014-01-01

The spread of zero tolerance policies for school-based scenarios flourished under President William J. Clinton who wanted to close a loophole in the Guns-Free School Zones Act of 1990. Expansion in the coverage of zero tolerance policy to offenses outside the initial scope of weapon and drug offenses has led to a disproportional ratio of African…

Evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-1 genotype V in the Americas.

PubMed

de Bruycker-Nogueira, Fernanda; Mir, Daiana; Dos Santos, Flavia Barreto; Bello, Gonzalo

2016-11-01

The genotype V has been the most prevalent dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) clade circulating in the Americas over the last 40years. In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of emergence and dissemination of DENV-1 lineages in the continent. We applied phylogenetic and phylogeographic approaches to a comprehensive data set of 836 DENV-1 E gene sequences of the genotype V isolated from 46 different countries around the world over a period of 50years (1962 to 2014). Our study reveals that genetic diversity of DENV-1 genotype V in the Americas resulted from two independent introductions of this genotype from India. The first genotype V strain was most probably introduced into the Lesser Antilles at around the early 1970s and this Caribbean region becomes the source population of several DENV-1 lineages that spread in the Americas during the 1970s and 1980s. Most of those lineages appear to become extinct during the 1990s, except one that persisted in Venezuela and later spread to other American countries, dominating the DENV-1 epidemics in the region from the early 2000s onwards. The second genotype V strain of Indian origin was also most probably introduced into the Lesser Antilles at around the early 1980s. This lineage remained almost undetected for nearly 15years, until it was introduced in Northern Brazil around the middle 1990s and later spread to other country regions. These results demonstrate that different geographic regions have played a role in maintaining and spreading the DENV-1 genotype V in the Americas over time. DENV-1 genotype V lineages have originated, spread and died out in the Americas with very different dynamics and the phenomenon of lineage replacement across successive DENV-1 epidemic outbreaks was a common characteristic in most American countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Epidemics with Dynamic Small-World Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaski, Kimmo; Saramäki, Jari

2005-06-01

In this presentation a minimal model for describing the spreading of an infectious disease, such as influenza, is discussed. Here it is assumed that spreading takes place on a dynamic small-world network comprising short- and long-range infection events. Approximate equations for the epidemic threshold as well as the spreading dynamics are derived and they agree well with numerical discrete time-step simulations. Also the dependence of the epidemic saturation time on the initial conditions is analysed and a comparison with real-world data is made.

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

PubMed

Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

2013-01-01

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

Diffusion in Colocation Contact Networks: The Impact of Nodal Spatiotemporal Dynamics.

PubMed

Thomas, Bryce; Jurdak, Raja; Zhao, Kun; Atkinson, Ian

2016-01-01

Temporal contact networks are studied to understand dynamic spreading phenomena such as communicable diseases or information dissemination. To establish how spatiotemporal dynamics of nodes impact spreading potential in colocation contact networks, we propose "inducement-shuffling" null models which break one or more correlations between times, locations and nodes. By reconfiguring the time and/or location of each node's presence in the network, these models induce alternative sets of colocation events giving rise to contact networks with varying spreading potential. This enables second-order causal reasoning about how correlations in nodes' spatiotemporal preferences not only lead to a given contact network but ultimately influence the network's spreading potential. We find the correlation between nodes and times to be the greatest impediment to spreading, while the correlation between times and locations slightly catalyzes spreading. Under each of the presented null models we measure both the number of contacts and infection prevalence as a function of time, with the surprising finding that the two have no direct causality.

Nomographs for estimating surface fire behavior characteristics

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2007-01-01

A complete set of nomographs for estimating surface fire rate of spread and flame length for the original 13 and new 40 fire behavior fuel models is presented. The nomographs allow calculation of spread rate and flame length for wind in any direction with respect to slope and allow for nonheading spread directions. Basic instructions for use are included.

Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change.

PubMed

Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-10-26

Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.

Spatial spreading model and dynamics of West Nile virus in birds and mosquitoes with free boundary.

PubMed

Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

2017-12-01

In this paper, a reaction-diffusion system is proposed to model the spatial spreading of West Nile virus in vector mosquitoes and host birds in North America. Transmission dynamics are based on a simplified model involving mosquitoes and birds, and the free boundary is introduced to model and explore the expanding front of the infected region. The spatial-temporal risk index [Formula: see text], which involves regional characteristic and time, is defined for the simplified reaction-diffusion model with the free boundary to compare with other related threshold values, including the usual basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. Sufficient conditions for the virus to vanish or to spread are given. Our results suggest that the virus will be in a scenario of vanishing if [Formula: see text], and will spread to the whole region if [Formula: see text] for some [Formula: see text], while if [Formula: see text], the spreading or vanishing of the virus depends on the initial number of infected individuals, the area of the infected region, the diffusion rate and other factors. Moreover, some remarks on the basic reproduction numbers and the spreading speeds are presented and compared.

DEVELOPMENT OF USER-FRIENDLY SIMULATION SYSTEM OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED URBAN SPREADING FIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujihara, Osamu; Gawa, Hidemi; Hayashi, Hirofumi

In the simulation of earthquake induced urban spreading fire, the produce of the analytical model of the target area is required as well as the analysis of spreading fire and the presentati on of the results. In order to promote the use of the simulation, it is important that the simulation system is non-intrusive and the analysis results can be demonstrated by the realistic presentation. In this study, the simulation system is developed based on the Petri-net algorithm, in which the easy operation can be realized in the modeling of the target area of the simulation through the presentation of analytical results by realistic 3-D animation.

Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback.

PubMed

Webb, Mark J; Lock, Adrian P; Bretherton, Christopher S; Bony, Sandrine; Cole, Jason N S; Idelkadi, Abderrahmane; Kang, Sarah M; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Kawai, Hideaki; Ogura, Tomoo; Roehrig, Romain; Shin, Yechul; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Sherwood, Steven C; Vial, Jessica; Watanabe, Masahiro; Woelfle, Matthew D; Zhao, Ming

2015-11-13

We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that 'ConvOff' models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed. © 2015 The Authors.

The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback

PubMed Central

Webb, Mark J.; Lock, Adrian P.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Bony, Sandrine; Cole, Jason N. S.; Idelkadi, Abderrahmane; Kang, Sarah M.; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Kawai, Hideaki; Ogura, Tomoo; Roehrig, Romain; Shin, Yechul; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Sherwood, Steven C.; Vial, Jessica; Watanabe, Masahiro; Woelfle, Matthew D.; Zhao, Ming

2015-01-01

We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that ‘ConvOff’ models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed. PMID:26438278

A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels

Treesearch

Richard C. Rothermel

1972-01-01

A mathematical fire model for predicting rate of spread and intensity that is applicable to a wide range of wildland fuels and environment is presented. Methods of incorporating mixtures of fuel sizes are introduced by weighting input parameters by surface area. The input parameters do not require a prior knowledge of the burning characteristics of the fuel.

Detailed study of the Cobb offset of the Juan de Fuca ridge: evolution of a propagating rift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, H.P.; Karsten, J.L.; Delaney, J.R.

The Cobb Offset on the northern portion of the Juan de Fuca Ridge has been identified as the tip of a northward propagating rift (Hey and Wilson, 1982). Map compilations of magnetic and seismic data from four new cruises define the present locus of spreading and volcanism on the two ridge segments abutting the Offset and permit detailed modeling of the recent evolution within this transform zone. The axis of recent spreading on the southern ridge segment bends from the normal rdige trend (N20/sup 0/E) to a N-S trend, north of 47/sup 0/15'N. The spreading axis on the northern ridgemore » segment generally defines a N20/sup 0/E trend, except at the southern terminus, where the spreading center is offset slightly to the east. The two spreading centers overlap by about 33 km in the Offset vicinity, and there is evidence of recent volcanism on both segments. Present ridge axis morphology exhibits a transitional sequence from a symmetrical, axial high along the more 'normal' portions of each ridge segment to a grabenlike depression as the tip is approached. The magnetic anomaly patterns observed in the Cobb Offset vicinity are not consistent with the patterns predicted by models of continuous, northward propagation. The magnetic anomaly patterns of the Brunhes Epoch require an event of rapid northward propagation about 0.7 m.y. B.P., followed by a more gradual southward propagation in the middle Brunhes Epoch; most recently, the spreading center on the southern ridge has extended northward to its present configuration. Prior to the Brunhes Epoch, modeling of the magnetic anomaly patterns does not indicate a unique solution; however, net propagation has been northward. We present alternative models for the period beginning 1.7 m.y. B.P.« less

Dynamic properties of epidemic spreading on finite size complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ying; Liu, Yang; Shan, Xiu-Ming; Ren, Yong; Jiao, Jian; Qiu, Ben

2005-11-01

The Internet presents a complex topological structure, on which computer viruses can easily spread. By using theoretical analysis and computer simulation methods, the dynamic process of disease spreading on finite size networks with complex topological structure is investigated. On the finite size networks, the spreading process of SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state. Two parameters, the survival probability and the conditional infecting probability, are introduced to describe the dynamic properties of disease spreading on finite size networks. Our results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks. Also, knowledge about the dynamic character of virus spreading is helpful for adopting immunity policy.

Nutrition, dieting, and fitness messages in a magazine for adolescent women, 1970-1990.

PubMed

Guillen, E O; Barr, S I

1994-09-01

This study was designed to characterize nutrition and fitness messages presented between 1970-1990 in a magazine for adolescent women; to evaluate whether these messages changed over time; and to assess the body shape portrayed as desirable, and whether this changed over time. A data collection form was developed to code nutrition and fitness-related written items, advertisements and recipes, and the page coverage allocated to these items. Body shape was assessed by measuring bust:waist and hip:waist ratios of photographs of models wearing bathing suits or underwear. Magazines from even years between 1970-1990 (n = 132) were coded. Both nutrition-related and fitness-related coverage emphasized weight loss and physical appearance. Half the major nutrition-related articles presented a weight-loss plan, and weight loss was frequently addressed in other nutrition articles. The primary reasons presented for following a nutrition of fitness plan were to lose weight and become more attractive. Statements that the product or service would promote weight loss were found in 47% of nutrition-related advertisements. Nutrition coverage did not exhibit a net change over time, whereas fitness coverage increased (F = 6.6, p < .005), and the ratio of nutrition: fitness coverage changed from 10:1 in 1970 to 0.75:1 in 1990. Models' body shapes were less curvaceous than those in magazines for adult women, and the hip:waist ratio decreased over time (F = 7.3, p < .01). The nutrition and fitness messages in this magazine for adolescent women emphasize body shape and appearance, similar to findings from adult women's magazines, and contribute to the cultural milieu in which thinness is an expectation for women. Between 1970-1990, the emphasis on fitness increased, and the body shape of models tended to become more linear.

The elimination of trans fats from spreads: how science helped to turn an industry around.

PubMed

Korver, Onno; Katan, Martijn B

2006-06-01

Mensink and Katan showed in 1990 that trans fats reduce high- and increase low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Unilever aided this study because the company considered knowledge on trans fats incomplete in spite of their long history of safe use. The decision in 1994 to remove trans fats from Unilever's retail spreads was triggered by media events, but it was built on a solid understanding of the nutritional and technological aspects of trans fats. Over the next 14 years, manufacturers worldwide followed suit. This experience illustrates that food companies need to know about the health effects of their products and how to apply that knowledge.

Range expansion of the invasive brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys: an increasing threat to field, fruit and vegetable crops worldwide

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) has emerged as a harmful invasive insect pest in North America and Europe in the 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Native to eastern Asia, this highly polyphagous pest (>120 different host plants) is spreading rapidly worldwide...

Accountability in Higher Education: Are There "Fatal Errors" Embedded in Current U.S. Policy Affecting Higher Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grantham, Marilyn H.

Some observers of political phenomena are referring to the 1990s as the "age of accountability." Early in the decade of the '90s, articles in periodicals, professional journals and other sources were voicing warnings about increasing public policymaker frustration with higher education and the spreading development and implementation of…

Analysis of Initial Cell Spreading Using Mechanistic Contact Formulations for a Deformable Cell Model

PubMed Central

Odenthal, Tim; Smeets, Bart; Van Liedekerke, Paul; Tijskens, Engelbert; Van Oosterwyck, Hans; Ramon, Herman

2013-01-01

Adhesion governs to a large extent the mechanical interaction between a cell and its microenvironment. As initial cell spreading is purely adhesion driven, understanding this phenomenon leads to profound insight in both cell adhesion and cell-substrate interaction. It has been found that across a wide variety of cell types, initial spreading behavior universally follows the same power laws. The simplest cell type providing this scaling of the radius of the spreading area with time are modified red blood cells (RBCs), whose elastic responses are well characterized. Using a mechanistic description of the contact interaction between a cell and its substrate in combination with a deformable RBC model, we are now able to investigate in detail the mechanisms behind this universal power law. The presented model suggests that the initial slope of the spreading curve with time results from a purely geometrical effect facilitated mainly by dissipation upon contact. Later on, the spreading rate decreases due to increasing tension and dissipation in the cell's cortex as the cell spreads more and more. To reproduce this observed initial spreading, no irreversible deformations are required. Since the model created in this effort is extensible to more complex cell types and can cope with arbitrarily shaped, smooth mechanical microenvironments of the cells, it can be useful for a wide range of investigations where forces at the cell boundary play a decisive role. PMID:24146605

Research on parallel combinatory spread spectrum communication system with double information matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Wei; Wang, Qi; Wang, Tianyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents an improved parallel combinatory spread spectrum (PC/SS) communication system with the method of double information matching (DIM). Compared with conventional PC/SS system, the new model inherits the advantage of high transmission speed, large information capacity and high security. Besides, the problem traditional system will face is the high bit error rate (BER) and since its data-sequence mapping algorithm. Hence the new model presented shows lower BER and higher efficiency by its optimization of mapping algorithm.

Strain Partitioning and Accumulation across Overlapping Spreading Centers: Geodetic GPS Measurements in South Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Femina, P. C.; Dixon, T. H.; Malservisi, R.; Árnadóttir, T.; Sigmundsson, F.; Sturkell, E.

2004-12-01

Overlapping spreading centers (OSCs) and propagating ridges are important classes of mid-ocean ridges. Kinematic models of OSCs predict along strike variability in spreading rate associated with the propagation of one center and deactivation of the other. Iceland offers a unique opportunity to investigate strain accumulation and partitioning across slow, overlapping spreading centers, and the influence of a ridge centered hotspot on ridge kinematics and morphology. We present results of detailed GPS observations across the Eastern and Western Volcanic Zones, south Iceland, spanning a seven to nine year inter-rifting period, and compare our observations with two-dimensional elastic half-space models that simulate the long-term spreading process. We then compare the elastic half-space models with simple viscoelastic coupling models. We model three velocity profiles across the EVZ-WVZ system, solving for the spreading rate, locking depth and horizontal location of each spreading center. Our spreading rate estimates indicate along strike variations as expected in an OSC system and total spreading rates consistent with geodetic and geologic plate motion models. Spreading rates in the WVZ increase from northeast (3 ±1 mm/yr) to southwest (7 ±1 mm/yr). Spreading rates in the southwest propagating EVZ decrease from northeast (17 ±1 mm/yr) to southwest (12 ±1 mm/yr). These results are consistent with a model whereby the WVZ is deactivating in the direction of EVZ propagation. The morphology of the two spreading centers reflects the spreading rate differences and their location relative to the Iceland hotspot. The predicted locations of the spreading axis for each zone are consistent with mapped Holocene fissure swarms. The neovolcanic zone of the slower WVZ consists of a narrow (10-20 km wide) axial graben and has had few Holocene eruptions. The faster EVZ consists of two parallel neovolcanic zones separated by a 20 km gap of inactivity, little normal faulting, higher topography and five historical fissure eruptions, reflecting its proximity to the hotspot. The maximum velocity gradient in the EVZ is located on the Veidivotn fissure swarm, which had a small volume eruption in 1864. The last major fissure eruption in the EVZ was the 1783 Lakagigar, located 20 km to the east. This pattern of current and past strain accumulation and release suggests intra-ridge jumping of activity and crustal accretion across a 60 km wide area.

Evolution of seafloor spreading rate based on Ar-40 degassing history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajika, Eiichi; Matsui, Takafumi

1993-05-01

A new degassing model of Ar-40 coupled with thermal evolution of the mantle is constructed to constrain the temporal variation of seafloor spreading rate. In this model, we take into account the effects of elemental partition and solubility during melt generation and bubble formation, and changes in both seafloor spreading rate and melt generation depth in the mantle. It is suggested that the seafloor spreading rate would have been almost the same as that of today over the history of the earth in order to explain the present amount of Ar-40 in the atmosphere. This result may also imply the mild degassing history of volatiles from the mantle.

Along-axis hydrothermal flow at the axis of slow spreading Mid-Ocean Ridges: Insights from numerical models of the Lucky Strike vent field (MAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, Fabrice J.; Cannat, Mathilde; Escartin, Javier; Crawford, Wayne C.

2014-07-01

processes and efficiency of hydrothermal heat extraction along the axis of mid-ocean ridges are controlled by lithospheric thermal and permeability structures. Hydrothermal circulation models based on the structure of fast and intermediate spreading ridges predict that hydrothermal cell organization and vent site distribution are primarily controlled by the thermodynamics of high-temperature mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal fluids. Using recent constraints on shallow structure at the slow spreading Lucky Strike segment along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, we present a physical model of hydrothermal cooling that incorporates the specificities of a magma-rich slow spreading environment. Using three-dimensional numerical models, we show that, in contrast to the aforementioned models, the subsurface flow at Lucky Strike is primarily controlled by across-axis permeability variations. Models with across-axis permeability gradients produce along-axis oriented hydrothermal cells and an alternating pattern of heat extraction highs and lows that match the distribution of microseismic clusters recorded at the Lucky Strike axial volcano. The flow is also influenced by temperature gradients at the base of the permeable hydrothermal domain. Although our models are based on the structure and seismicity of the Lucky Strike segment, across-axis permeability gradients are also likely to occur at faster spreading ridges and these results may also have important implications for the cooling of young crust at fast and intermediate spreading centers.

Solid surface combustion experiment flame spread in a quiescent, microgravity environment implications of spread rate and flame structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bundy, Matthew; West, Jeff; Thomas, Peter C.; Bhattacharjee, Subrata; Tang, Lin; Altenkirch, Robert A.; Sacksteder, Kurt

1995-01-01

A unique environment in which flame spreading, a phenomenon of fundamental, scientific interest, has importance to fire safety is that of spacecraft in which the gravitational acceleration is low compared with that of the Earth, i.e., microgravity. Experiments aboard eight Space Shuttle missions between October 1990 and February 1995 were conducted using the Solid Surface Combustion Experiment (SSCE) payload apparatus in an effort to determine the mechanisms of gas-phase flame spread over solid fuel surfaces in the absence of any buoyancy induced or externally imposed oxidizer flow. The overall SSCE effort began in December of 1984. The SSCE apparatus consists of a sealed container, approximately 0.039 cu m, that is filled with a specified O2/N2 mixture at a prescribed pressure. Five of the experiments used a thin cellulosic fuel, ashless filter paper, 3 cm wide x 10 cm long, 0.00825 cm half-thickness, ignited in five different ambient conditions. Three of the experiments, the most recent, used thick polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) samples 0.635 cm wide x 2 cm long, 0.32 cm half-thickness. Three experiments, STS 41, 40 and 43, were designed to evaluate the effect of ambient pressure on flame spread over the thin cellulosic fuel while flights STS 50 and 47 were at the same pressure as two of the earlier flights but at a lower oxygen concentration in order to evaluate the effect of ambient oxygen level on the flame spread process at microgravity. For the PMMA flights, two experiments, STS 54 and 63, were at the same pressure but different oxygen concentrations while STS 64 was at the same oxygen concentration as STS 63 but at a higher pressure. Two orthogonal views of the experiments were recorded on 16 mm cine-cameras operating at 24 frames/s. In addition to filmed images of the side view of the flames and surface view of the burning samples, solid- and gas-phase temperatures were recorded using thermocouples. The experiment is battery powered and follows an automated sequence upon activation by the Shuttle Crew. In this study we separate the SSCE data into two groups according to the fuel type: (1) thin cellulose; and (2) thick PMMA. The experimental spread rates are compared with prediction from a number of models in an effort to uncover the important physics that characterize microgravity flame spread. Both steady and unsteady solutions are employed to explore the flame evolution, especially for thick fuels. Finally, the flame structure in downward spread is compared with the microgravity flame structure and modeling results to delineate the difference between the two configurations and the influence of normal gravity.

One-year Monitoring of Iodine-129 spread in Pacific Ocean After the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, C.; Burr, G. S.; Jull, A. T.; Pandey, A.; Thiemens, M. H.; Biddulph, D.; Russell, J. L.

2012-12-01

The long-lived radionuclide Iodine-129 is well known as a useful environmental tracer. At present, the global I-129 in surface water is about 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than pre-1990 levels. The anthropogenic I-129 signal produced from industrial nuclear fuel reprocessing plants is known to be the primary source of I-129 in marine surface waters of the Atlantic, and elevated I-129 values are found globally. On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake produced a devastating tsunami that severely damaged the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The damage caused a substantial release of radionuclides into the atmosphere and ocean in the weeks following the catastrophe. We expect to be able to identify I-129 from surface seawater in the Pacific Ocean. We will present I-129 results of water samples collected weekly near Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA for a year. We also have a pair of measurements collected a year apart from Kaohsiung, Taiwan. By establishing I-129 time series, we can observe the spread of I-129 in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean that resulted from the accidental releases. This information can also be used to better understand surface ocean circulation.

Dome growth and destruction during the 1989-1990 eruption of redoubt volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, T.P.

1994-01-01

Much of the six-month-long 1989-1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano consisted of a dome-growth and -destructive phase in which 14 short-lived viscous silicic andesite domes were emplaced and 13 subsequently destroyed. The life span of an individual dome ranged from 3 to 21 days and volumes are estimated at 1 ?? 106 to 30 ?? 106 m3. Magma supply rates to the vent area averaged about 5 ?? 105 m3 / day for most of the dome-building phase and ranged from a high of 2.2 ?? 106 m3 per day initially to a low of 1.8 ?? 105 m3 per day at the waning stages of the eruption. The total volume of all domes is estimated to be about 90 ?? 106 m3 and may represent as much as 60-70% of the volume for the entire eruption. The site of 1989-1990 dome emplacement, like that in 1966, was on the margin of a north-facing amphitheatre-like summit crater. The domes were confined on the east and west by steep cliffs of pre-eruption cone-building volcanic rocks and thus were constrained to grow vertically. Rapid upward growth in a precarious site caused each dome to spread preferentially to the north, resulting in eventual gravitational collapse. As long as the present conduit remains active at Redoubt Volcano, any dome formed in a new eruption will be confined to a narrow steeply-sloping gorge, leading to rapid vertical growth and a tendency to collapse gravitationally. Repetitive cycles of dome formation and failure similar to those seen in 1989-1990 are probably the norm and must be considered in future hazard analyses of Redoubt Volcano. ?? 1994.

Proceedings of the Annual Day of Scientific Lectures (17th), and Annual Meeting of the National Society of Black Physicists (13th), Held in Baton Rouge, LA on March 21-24, 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

10- 3 per IR rms energy spread. inj/20 TeV 1.75/0.5x I0-’ lonp emittance, inj/20 TeV (rms area/ir) 0.035/0.233 eV.s arc lattice /total no. long-arc...facilities of the 1990’s. Y. Dokshitzer, V. Khoze, and S. Troyan studied coherence phenomena and physics of QCD jets. Ya. Asimov, V. Khoze, and N. Uraltsev...example computational lattice gauge theory. However, despite all of their difficulties, the Soviet physicists are highly motivated and quite productive

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Plague Doctors in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: Mental Health Professionals and the "San Francisco Model," 1981-1990.

PubMed

Blair, Thomas R

2016-01-01

Psychiatrists, psychologists, and other mental health professionals were among the first and most crucial responders to HIV/AIDS. Given an epidemic in which behavior and identity played fundamental roles, mental health professionals were uniquely positioned to conduct social research to explain the existence and spread of disease; to develop clinical understanding of psychological aspects of HIV/AIDS as they emerged; and to collaborate with affected communities to promote education and behavioral change. This study examines the roles of mental health professionals as "plague doctors" in San Francisco's response to HIV/AIDS, in the early years of the epidemic. Among the many collaborations and projects that distinguished the "San Francisco model" of response to this plague, bathhouse-based epidemiology, consult-liaison psychiatry, and community partnerships for counseling and education are examined in detail as illustrations of the epidemic-changing engagement of the mental health community.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

PubMed Central

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990–2006) and former British India (1882–1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks. PMID:24424273

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire.

PubMed

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D; Bouma, Menno J; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-15

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Research reports: 1990 NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freeman, L. Michael (Editor); Chappell, Charles R. (Editor); Six, Frank (Editor); Karr, Gerald R. (Editor)

1990-01-01

Reports on the research projects performed under the NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program are presented. The program was conducted by The University of Alabama and MSFC during the period from June 4, 1990 through August 10, 1990. Some of the topics covered include: (1) Space Shuttles; (2) Space Station Freedom; (3) information systems; (4) materials and processes; (4) Space Shuttle main engine; (5) aerospace sciences; (6) mathematical models; (7) mission operations; (8) systems analysis and integration; (9) systems control; (10) structures and dynamics; (11) aerospace safety; and (12) remote sensing

Thematic Mapper Protoflight Model Line Spread Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schueler, C.

1984-01-01

The Thematic Mapper (TM) Protoflight Model Spatial Line Spread Function (LSF) was not measured before launch. Therefore, methodology are developed to characterize LSF with protoflight model optics and electronics measurements that were made before launch. Direct prelaunch LSF measurements that were made from the flight model TM verified the protoflight TM LSF simulation. Results for two selected protoflight TM channels are presented here. It is shown that LSF data for the other ninety-four channels could be generated in the same fashion.

New models of hematogenous ovarian cancer metastasis demonstrate preferential spread to the ovary and a requirement for the ovary for abdominal dissemination.

PubMed

Coffman, Lan G; Burgos-Ojeda, Daniela; Wu, Rong; Cho, Kathleen; Bai, Shoumei; Buckanovich, Ronald J

2016-09-01

Emerging evidence suggest that many high-grade serous "ovarian" cancers (HGSOC) start in the fallopian tube. Cancer cells are then recruited to the ovary and then spread diffusely through the abdomen. The mechanism of ovarian cancer spread was thought to be largely due to direct shedding of tumor cells into the peritoneal cavity with vascular spread being of limited importance. Recent work challenges this dogma, suggesting hematogenous spread of ovarian cancer may play a larger role in ovarian cancer cell metastasis than previously thought. One reason the role of vascular spread of ovarian cancer has not been fully elucidated is the lack of easily accessible models of vascular ovarian cancer metastasis. Here, we present 3 metastatic models of ovarian cancer which confirm the ability of ovarian cancer to hematogenously spread. Strikingly, we observe a high rate of metastasis to the ovary with the development of ascites in these models. Interestingly, oophorectomy resulted in a complete loss of peritoneal metastases and ascites. Taken together, our data indicate that hematogenously disseminated HGSOC cells have a unique tropism for the ovary and that hematogenous spread in ovarian cancer may be more common than appreciated. Furthermore, our studies support a critical role for the ovary in promoting HGSOC cell metastasis to the abdomen. The models developed here represent important new tools to evaluate both the mechanism of cancer cell recruitment to the ovary and understand and target key steps in ovarian cancer metastasis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New models of hematogenous ovarian cancer metastasis demonstrate preferential spread to the ovary and a requirement for the ovary for abdominal dissemination

PubMed Central

Coffman, Lan G; Burgos-Ojeda, Daniela; Wu, Rong; Cho, Kathleen; Bai, Shoumei; Buckanovich, Ronald J

2016-01-01

Emerging evidence suggest that many high grade serous ‘ovarian’ cancers (HGSOC) start in the fallopian tube. Cancer cells are then recruited to the ovary and then spread diffusely through the abdomen. The mechanism of ovarian cancer spread was thought to be largely due to direct shedding of tumor cells into the peritoneal cavity with vascular spread being of limited importance. Recent work challenges this dogma, suggesting hematogenous spread of ovarian cancer may play a larger role in ovarian cancer cell metastasis than previously thought. One reason the role of vascular spread of ovarian cancer has not been fully elucidated is the lack of easily accessible models of vascular ovarian cancer metastasis. Here we present three metastatic models of ovarian cancer which confirm the ability of ovarian cancer to hematogenously spread. Strikingly, we observe a high rate of metastasis to the ovary with the development of ascites in these models. Interestingly, oophorectomy resulted in a complete loss of peritoneal metastases and ascites. Taken together our data indicates that hematogenously disseminated HGSOC cells have a unique tropism for the ovary and that hematogenous spread in ovarian cancer may be more common than appreciated. Furthermore our studies support a critical role for the ovary in promoting HGSOC cell metastasis to the abdomen. The models developed here represent important new tools to evaluate both the mechanism of cancer cell recruitment to the ovary and to understand and target key steps in ovarian cancer metastasis. PMID:27083386

Eurodelta-Trends, a Multi-Model Experiment of Air Quality Hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010. Experiment Design and Key Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, A.; Ciarelli, G.; Otero, N.; Theobald, M.; Solberg, S.; Andersson, C.; Couvidat, F.; Manders-Groot, A.; Mar, K. A.; Mircea, M.; Pay, M. T.; Raffort, V.; Tsyro, S.; Cuvelier, K.; Adani, M.; Bessagnet, B.; Bergstrom, R.; Briganti, G.; Cappelletti, A.; D'isidoro, M.; Fagerli, H.; Ojha, N.; Roustan, Y.; Vivanco, M. G.

2017-12-01

The Eurodelta-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to better understand the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990-2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional scale air quality. The experiment is designed in three tiers with increasing degree of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists in two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and six models have completed the 21-year trend simulations. The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. We assess the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990-2010 time period. The average particulate matter relative trends are well captured by the models, even if they display the usual lower bias in reproducing absolute levels. Ozone trends are also well reproduced, yet slightly overestimated in the 1990s. The attribution study emphasizes the efficiency of mitigation measures in reducing air pollution over Europe, although a strong impact of long range transport is pointed out for ozone trends. Meteorological variability is also an important factor in some regions of Europe. The results of the first health and ecosystem impact studies impacts building upon a regional scale multi-model ensemble over a 20yr time period will also be presented.

Natural biological control of Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) by native egg parasitoids – a multi-year survey in northern Delaware

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Halyomorpha halys (Stål), the brown marmorated stink bug, is a highly polyphagous plant pest native to eastern Asia. Since its accidental introduction to the eastern USA in the mid-1990s, it has spread across North America and caused serious economic and ecological damages. Chemical control has been...

Effective landscape scale management of Cirsium arvense (Canada thistle) utilizing biological control

Treesearch

G. P. Markin; D. Larson

2013-01-01

The stem mining weevil, Ceutorhynchus litura Fabricius, the gall forming fly, Urophora cardui L., and the seedhead weevil, Larinus planus Fabricius, were established as biological control agents on an 1800 hectare multiple-habitat wildlife refuge in northwestern Oregon in the mid-1990s. At the time, Canada thistle was the most wide spread, aggressive, and difficult...

The Internet's Effect on Women's Coauthoring Rates and Academic Job Market Decisions: The Case of Political Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butler, Daniel M.; Butler, Richard J.

2011-01-01

The late 1990s saw the introduction and spread of the Internet and email. For social scientists, these technologies lowered communication costs and made inter-department collaboration much easier. Using women in political science as a case study, we show that this change has disproportionately affected women in two ways. First, women have…

Experimental and numerical models of three-dimensional gravity-driven flow of shear-thinning polymer solutions used in vaginal delivery of microbicides.

PubMed

Kheyfets, Vitaly O; Kieweg, Sarah L

2013-06-01

HIV/AIDS is a growing global pandemic. A microbicide is a formulation of a pharmaceutical agent suspended in a delivery vehicle, and can be used by women to protect themselves against HIV infection during intercourse. We have developed a three-dimensional (3D) computational model of a shear-thinning power-law fluid spreading under the influence of gravity to represent the distribution of a microbicide gel over the vaginal epithelium. This model, accompanied by a new experimental methodology, is a step in developing a tool for optimizing a delivery vehicle's structure/function relationship for clinical application. We compare our model with experiments in order to identify critical considerations for simulating 3D free-surface flows of shear-thinning fluids. Here we found that neglecting lateral spreading, when modeling gravity-induced flow, resulted in up to 47% overestimation of the experimental axial spreading after 90 s. In contrast, the inclusion of lateral spreading in 3D computational models resulted in rms errors in axial spreading under 7%. In addition, the choice of the initial condition for shape in the numerical simulation influences the model's ability to describe early time spreading behavior. Finally, we present a parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the power-law parameters' influence on axial spreading, and to examine the impact of changing rheological properties as a result of dilution or formulation conditions. Both the shear-thinning index (n) and consistency (m) impacted the spreading length and deceleration of the moving front. The sensitivity analysis showed that gels with midrange m and n values (for the ranges in this study) would be most sensitive (over 8% changes in spreading length) to 10% changes (e.g., from dilution) in both rheological properties. This work is applicable to many industrial and geophysical thin-film flow applications of non-Newtonian fluids; in addition to biological applications in microbicide drug delivery.

Experimental and Numerical Models of Three-Dimensional Gravity-Driven Flow of Shear-Thinning Polymer Solutions Used in Vaginal Delivery of Microbicides

PubMed Central

Kheyfets, Vitaly O.; Kieweg, Sarah L.

2013-01-01

HIV/AIDS is a growing global pandemic. A microbicide is a formulation of a pharmaceutical agent suspended in a delivery vehicle, and can be used by women to protect themselves against HIV infection during intercourse. We have developed a three-dimensional (3D) computational model of a shear-thinning power-law fluid spreading under the influence of gravity to represent the distribution of a microbicide gel over the vaginal epithelium. This model, accompanied by a new experimental methodology, is a step in developing a tool for optimizing a delivery vehicle's structure/function relationship for clinical application. We compare our model with experiments in order to identify critical considerations for simulating 3D free-surface flows of shear-thinning fluids. Here we found that neglecting lateral spreading, when modeling gravity-induced flow, resulted in up to 47% overestimation of the experimental axial spreading after 90 s. In contrast, the inclusion of lateral spreading in 3D computational models resulted in rms errors in axial spreading under 7%. In addition, the choice of the initial condition for shape in the numerical simulation influences the model's ability to describe early time spreading behavior. Finally, we present a parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the power-law parameters' influence on axial spreading, and to examine the impact of changing rheological properties as a result of dilution or formulation conditions. Both the shear-thinning index (n) and consistency (m) impacted the spreading length and deceleration of the moving front. The sensitivity analysis showed that gels with midrange m and n values (for the ranges in this study) would be most sensitive (over 8% changes in spreading length) to 10% changes (e.g., from dilution) in both rheological properties. This work is applicable to many industrial and geophysical thin-film flow applications of non-Newtonian fluids; in addition to biological applications in microbicide drug delivery. PMID:23699721

An interplay model for authorities' actions and rumor spreading in emergency event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Liang-an; Huang, Peiqing; Fang, Xing

2011-10-01

Rumor spreading influences how rational individuals assess risks and evaluate needs, especially, it affects authorities to make decisions in an emergency-affected environments. Conversely, authorities' response to emergency will induct public opinions as well. In this paper, we present a simple model to describe the interplay between rumor spreading and authorities' actions in emergency situation based on utility theory. By drawing from differential equations we found that it is possible to minimize negative social utility of rumor spreading in the control of situation. At the same time, authorities' proactive actions can improve rumor management in emergency situation and yield positive social utility. Finally, we outline strategies for authorities that can contribute to rumor management in an emergency event.

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness.

PubMed

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Xia, Chengyi; Guo, Lu; Jiang, Xin; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-01-01

Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider the heterogeneity of individuals. Consequently, we propose a heterogeneous spreading model. To describe the heterogeneity, two of the most important but radically different methods for this purpose, the degree and k-core measures, are studied in this paper through three models based on different assumptions. Adopting a Markov chain approach, we succeed in predicting the epidemic threshold trend. Furthermore, we find that when the k-core measure is used to classify individuals, the spreading process is robust to these models, meaning that regardless of the model used, the spreading process is nearly identical at the macroscopic level. In addition, the k-core measure leads to a much larger final epidemic size than the degree measure. These results are cross-checked through numerous simulations, not only of a synthetic network but also of a real multiplex network. The presented findings provide a better understanding of k-core individuals and reveal the importance of considering network structure when investigating various dynamic processes.

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider the heterogeneity of individuals. Consequently, we propose a heterogeneous spreading model. To describe the heterogeneity, two of the most important but radically different methods for this purpose, the degree and k-core measures, are studied in this paper through three models based on different assumptions. Adopting a Markov chain approach, we succeed in predicting the epidemic threshold trend. Furthermore, we find that when the k-core measure is used to classify individuals, the spreading process is robust to these models, meaning that regardless of the model used, the spreading process is nearly identical at the macroscopic level. In addition, the k-core measure leads to a much larger final epidemic size than the degree measure. These results are cross-checked through numerous simulations, not only of a synthetic network but also of a real multiplex network. The presented findings provide a better understanding of k-core individuals and reveal the importance of considering network structure when investigating various dynamic processes. PMID:27517715

The so-called "Spanish model" - tobacco industry strategies and its impact in Europe and Latin America.

PubMed

Schneider, Nick K; Sebrié, Ernesto M; Fernández, Esteve

2011-12-07

To demonstrate the tobacco industry rationale behind the "Spanish model" on non-smokers' protection in hospitality venues and the impact it had on some European and Latin American countries between 2006 and 2011. Tobacco industry documents research triangulated against news and media reports. As an alternative to the successful implementation of 100% smoke-free policies, several European and Latin American countries introduced partial smoking bans based on the so-called "Spanish model", a legal framework widely advocated by parts of the hospitality industry with striking similarities to "accommodation programmes" promoted by the tobacco industry in the late 1990s. These developments started with the implementation of the Spanish tobacco control law (Ley 28/2005) in 2006 and have increased since then. The Spanish experience demonstrates that partial smoking bans often resemble tobacco industry strategies and are used to spread a failed approach on international level. Researchers, advocates and policy makers should be aware of this ineffective policy.

The so-called "Spanish model" - Tobacco industry strategies and its impact in Europe and Latin America

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background To demonstrate the tobacco industry rationale behind the "Spanish model" on non-smokers' protection in hospitality venues and the impact it had on some European and Latin American countries between 2006 and 2011. Methods Tobacco industry documents research triangulated against news and media reports. Results As an alternative to the successful implementation of 100% smoke-free policies, several European and Latin American countries introduced partial smoking bans based on the so-called "Spanish model", a legal framework widely advocated by parts of the hospitality industry with striking similarities to "accommodation programmes" promoted by the tobacco industry in the late 1990s. These developments started with the implementation of the Spanish tobacco control law (Ley 28/2005) in 2006 and have increased since then. Conclusion The Spanish experience demonstrates that partial smoking bans often resemble tobacco industry strategies and are used to spread a failed approach on international level. Researchers, advocates and policy makers should be aware of this ineffective policy. PMID:22151884

Ecological multiplex interactions determine the role of species for parasite spread amplification

PubMed Central

Stella, Massimo; Selakovic, Sanja; Antonioni, Alberto

2018-01-01

Despite their potential interplay, multiple routes of many disease transmissions are often investigated separately. As a unifying framework for understanding parasite spread through interdependent transmission paths, we present the ‘ecomultiplex’ model, where the multiple transmission paths among a diverse community of interacting hosts are represented as a spatially explicit multiplex network. We adopt this framework for designing and testing potential control strategies for Trypanosoma cruzi spread in two empirical host communities. We show that the ecomultiplex model is an efficient and low data-demanding method to identify which species enhances parasite spread and should thus be a target for control strategies. We also find that the interplay between predator-prey and host-parasite interactions leads to a phenomenon of parasite amplification, in which top predators facilitate T. cruzi spread, offering a mechanistic interpretation of previous empirical findings. Our approach can provide novel insights in understanding and controlling parasite spreading in real-world complex systems. PMID:29683427

Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

2013-11-01

We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

Studying Turbulence Using Numerical Simulation Databases. 3: Proceedings of the 1990 Summer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

1990-01-01

Papers that cover the following topics are presented: subgrid scale modeling; turbulence modeling; turbulence structure, transport, and control; small scales mixing; turbulent reacting flows; and turbulence theory.

Modeling and Optimization of Recycled Water Systems to Augment Urban Groundwater Recharge through Underutilized Stormwater Spreading Basins.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Jonathan L; Luthy, Richard G

2017-10-17

Infrastructure systems that use stormwater and recycled water to augment groundwater recharge through spreading basins represent cost-effective opportunities to diversify urban water supplies. However, technical questions remain about how these types of managed aquifer recharge systems should be designed; furthermore, existing planning tools are insufficient for performing robust design comparisons. Addressing this need, we present a model for identifying the best-case design and operation schedule for systems that deliver recycled water to underutilized stormwater spreading basins. Resulting systems are optimal with respect to life cycle costs and water deliveries. Through a case study of Los Angeles, California, we illustrate how delivering recycled water to spreading basins could be optimally implemented. Results illustrate trade-offs between centralized and decentralized configurations. For example, while a centralized Hyperion system could deliver more recycled water to the Hansen Spreading Grounds, this system incurs approximately twice the conveyance cost of a decentralized Tillman system (mean of 44% vs 22% of unit life cycle costs). Compared to existing methods, our model allows for more comprehensive and precise analyses of cost, water volume, and energy trade-offs among different design scenarios. This model can inform decisions about spreading basin operation policies and the development of new water supplies.

Spreading of a pendant liquid drop underneath a textured substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mistry, Aashutosh; Muralidhar, K.

2018-04-01

A pendant drop spreading underneath a partially wetting surface from an initial shape to its final equilibrium configuration and contact angle is studied. A mathematical formulation that quantifies spreading behavior of liquid drops over textured surfaces is discussed. The drop volume and the equilibrium contact angle are treated as parameters in the study. The unbalanced force at the three-phase contact line is modeled as being proportional to the degree of departure from the equilibrium state. Model predictions are verified against the available experimental data in the literature. Results show that the flow dynamics is strongly influenced by the fluid properties, drop volume, and contact angle of the liquid with the partially wetting surface. The drop exhibits rich dynamical behavior including inertial oscillations and gravitational instability, given that gravity tries to detach the drop against wetting contributions. Flow characteristics of drop motion, namely, the radius of the footprint, slip length, and dynamic contact angle in the pendant configuration are presented. Given the interplay among the competing time-dependent forces, a spreading drop can momentarily be destabilized and not achieve a stable equilibrium shape. Instability is then controlled by the initial drop shape as well. The spreading model is used to delineate stable and unstable regimes in the parameter space. Predictions of the drop volume based on the Young-Laplace equation are seen to be conservative relative to the estimates of the dynamical model discussed in the present study.

Modelling temporal networks of human face-to-face contacts with public activity and individual reachability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi-Qing; Cui, Jing; Zhang, Shu-Min; Zhang, Qi; Li, Xiang

2016-02-01

Modelling temporal networks of human face-to-face contacts is vital both for understanding the spread of airborne pathogens and word-of-mouth spreading of information. Although many efforts have been devoted to model these temporal networks, there are still two important social features, public activity and individual reachability, have been ignored in these models. Here we present a simple model that captures these two features and other typical properties of empirical face-to-face contact networks. The model describes agents which are characterized by an attractiveness to slow down the motion of nearby people, have event-triggered active probability and perform an activity-dependent biased random walk in a square box with periodic boundary. The model quantitatively reproduces two empirical temporal networks of human face-to-face contacts which are testified by their network properties and the epidemic spread dynamics on them.

A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2000-01-01

Presents a method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling and allowing one to estimate both fixed and random effects. The method is applied to real and simulated data, including marriage data from J. Belsky and M. Rovine (1990). (SLD)

Mitigating wildland fire hazard using complex network centrality measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I.

2016-12-01

We show how to distribute firebreaks in heterogeneous forest landscapes in the presence of strong wind using complex network centrality measures. The proposed framework is essentially a two-tire one: at the inner part a state-of- the-art Cellular Automata model is used to compute the weights of the underlying lattice network while at the outer part the allocation of the fire breaks is scheduled in terms of a hierarchy of centralities which influence the most the spread of fire. For illustration purposes we applied the proposed framework to a real-case wildfire that broke up in Spetses Island, Greece in 1990. We evaluate the scheme against the benchmark of random allocation of firebreaks under the weather conditions of the real incident i.e. in the presence of relatively strong winds.

Unified tensor model for space-frequency spreading-multiplexing (SFSM) MIMO communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, André LF; Favier, Gérard

2013-12-01

This paper presents a unified tensor model for space-frequency spreading-multiplexing (SFSM) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) wireless communication systems that combine space- and frequency-domain spreadings, followed by a space-frequency multiplexing. Spreading across space (transmit antennas) and frequency (subcarriers) adds resilience against deep channel fades and provides space and frequency diversities, while orthogonal space-frequency multiplexing enables multi-stream transmission. We adopt a tensor-based formulation for the proposed SFSM MIMO system that incorporates space, frequency, time, and code dimensions by means of the parallel factor model. The developed SFSM tensor model unifies the tensorial formulation of some existing multiple-access/multicarrier MIMO signaling schemes as special cases, while revealing interesting tradeoffs due to combined space, frequency, and time diversities which are of practical relevance for joint symbol-channel-code estimation. The performance of the proposed SFSM MIMO system using either a zero forcing receiver or a semi-blind tensor-based receiver is illustrated by means of computer simulation results under realistic channel and system parameters.

Morphological Studies of Rising Equatorial Spread F Bubbles

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-11-01

depletions. In the present paper , we wish to discuss equatorial Spread F bubble shapes and vertical rise rates within the context of the collisional...simulation results are needed to ascertain which model fits best. All of the models described in this paper , based on collisional Rayleigh-Taylor type...Analysis of Barium Clouds - Semi-Annual Technical Report, RADC-TR-72-103, Vol. I, Avco Everett Reserach Laboratory, Everett, Mass., January 1972

A 50-year retrospective of persistent organic pollutants in the fat and eggs of penguins of the Southern Ocean.

PubMed

Ellis, Daniel S; Cipro, Caio V Z; Ogletree, Camden A; Smith, Kathryn E; Aronson, Richard B

2018-05-24

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been spreading to Antarctica for over half a century. Penguins are effective indicators of pelagic concentrations of POPs. We synthesized the literature on penguins to assess temporal trends of pelagic contamination in Antarctica, using fat and eggs to monitor changes from 1964 to 2011. DDT/DDE ratios suggest long-range atmospheric transport. Average DDT in fat (ww) increased from 44 ng g -1 in the 1960s, peaked at 171 ng g -1 in the mid-1980s, and then declined slowly to the present level of 101 ng g -1 . Temporal trends in HCB contamination rose into the 1990s before declining. ∑HCHs in fat was ∼5 ng g -1 from 1960 to 1979, peaking at 33 ng g -1 during the period 1980-1989 before declining to ∼5 ng g -1 from 1990 to present. PCBs rose substantially from 1970 to 2009 in fat, varying more than DDTs and HCB in both fat and eggs. Antarctic penguins are good biological indicators of global DDT and HCB emissions, but the existing data are insufficient regarding HCHs and PCBs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-07-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Effects of nonindigenous invasive species on water quality and quantity

Treesearch

Frank H. McCormick; Glen C. Contreras; Sherri L. Johnson

2010-01-01

Physical and biological disruptions of aquatic systems caused by invasive species alter water quantity and water quality. Recent evidence suggests that water is a vector for the spread of Sudden Oak Death disease and Port-Orfordcedar root disease. Since the 1990s, the public has become increasingly aware of the presence of invasive species in the Nation’s waters. Media...

Native bark-foraging birds preferentially forage in infected ash (Fraxinus spp.) and prove effective predators of the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire)

Treesearch

Charles E. Flower; Lawrence C. Long; Kathleen S. Knight; Joanne Rebbeck; Joel S. Brown; Miquel A. Gonzalez-Meler; Christopher J. Whelan

2014-01-01

Inadvertently introduced into North America in the 1990s, the invasive emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) has been spreading across the Great Lakes Region resulting in widespread ash tree (Fraxinus spp.) mortality. Native woodpeckers and other bark-foraging insectivores represent one of the few potential natural predators...

Ammonia emissions from non-agricultural sources in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, M. A.; Dragosits, U.; Tang, Y. S.; Fowler, D.

A detailed literature review has been undertaken of the magnitude of non-agricultural sources of ammonia (NH 3) in the United Kingdom. Key elements of the work included estimation of nitrogen (N) excreted by different sources (birds, animals, babies, human sweat), review of miscellaneous combustion sources, as well as identification of industrial sources and use of NH 3 as a solvent. Overall the total non-agricultural emission of NH 3 from the UK in 1996 is estimated here as 54 (27-106) kt NH 3-N yr -1, although this includes 11 (6-23) kt yr -1 from agriculture related sources (sewage sludge spreading, biomass burning and agro-industry). Compared with previous estimates for 1990, component source magnitudes have changed both because of revised average emissions per source unit (emission factors) and changes in the source activity between 1990 and 1996. Sources with larger average emission factors than before include horses, wild animals and sea bird colonies, industry, sugar beet processing, household products and non-agricultural fertilizer use, with the last three sources being included for the first time. Sources with smaller emission factors than before include: land spreading of sewage sludge, direct human emissions (sweat, breath, smoking, infants), pets (cats and dogs) and fertilizer manufacture. Between 1990 and 1996 source activities increased for sewage spreading (due to reduced dumping at sea) and transport (due to increased use of catalytic converters), but decreased for coal combustion. Combined with the current UK estimates of agricultural NH 3 emissions of 229 kt N yr -1 (1996), total UK NH 3 emissions are estimated at 283 kt N yr -1. Allowing for an import of reduced nitrogen (NH x) of 30 kt N yr -1 and deposition of 230 kt N yr -1, these figures imply an export of 83 kt NH 3-N yr -1. Although export is larger than previously estimated, due to the larger contribution of non-agricultural NH 3 emissions, it is still insufficient to balance the UK budget, for which around 150 kt NH 3-N are estimated to be exported. The shortfall in the budget is, nevertheless, well within the range of uncertainty of the total emissions.

Conditions for the return and simulation of the recovery of burrowing mayflies in western Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolar, Cynthia S.; Hudson, Patrick L.; Savino, Jacqueline F.

1997-01-01

In the 1950s, burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. Limbata and H. Rigida), were virtually eliminated from the western basin of Lake Erie (a 3300 kmA? area) because of eutrophication and pollution. We develop and present a deterministic model for the recolonization of the western basin by Hexagenia to pre-1953 densities. The model was based on the logistic equation describing the population growth of Hexagenia and a presumed competitor, Chironomus (dipteran larvae). Other parameters (immigration, low oxygen, toxic sediments, competition with Chironomus, and fish predation) were then individually added to the logistic model to determine their effect at different growth rates. The logistic model alone predicts 10-41 yr for Hexagenia to recolonize western Lake Erie. Immigration reduced the recolonization time by 2-17 yr. One low-oxygen event during the first 20 yr increased recovery time by 5-17 yr. Contaminated sediments added 5-11 yr to the recolonization time. Competition with Chironomus added 8-19 yr to recovery. Fish predators added 4-47 yr to the time required for recolonization. The full model predicted 48-81 yr for Hexagenia to reach a carrying capacity of approximately 350 nymphs/mA?, or not until around the year 2038 if the model is started in 1990. The model was verified by changing model parameters to those present in 1970, beginning the model in 1970 and running it through 1990. Predicted densities overlapped almost completely with actual estimated densities of Hexagenia nymphs present in the western basin in Lake Erie in 1990. The model suggests that recovery of large aquatic ecosystems may lag substantially behind remediation efforts.

Discrete Latent Markov Models for Normally Distributed Response Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmittmann, Verena D.; Dolan, Conor V.; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Neale, Michael C.

2005-01-01

Van de Pol and Langeheine (1990) presented a general framework for Markov modeling of repeatedly measured discrete data. We discuss analogical single indicator models for normally distributed responses. In contrast to discrete models, which have been studied extensively, analogical continuous response models have hardly been considered. These…

Spreading granular material with a blade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dressaire, Emilie; Singh, Vachitar; Grimaldi, Emma; Sauret, Alban

2015-11-01

The spreading of a complex fluid with a blade is encountered in applications that range from the bulldozing of granular material in construction projects to the coating of substrates with fluids in industrial applications. This spreading process is also present in everyday life, when we use a knife to turn a lump of peanut butter into a thin layer over our morning toast. In this study, we rely on granular media in a model experiment to describe the three-dimensional spreading of the material. Our experimental set-up allows tracking the spreading of a sandpile on a translating flat surface as the blade remains fixed. We characterize the spreading dynamics and the shape of the spread fluid layer when varying the tilt of the blade, its spacing with the surface and its speed. Our findings suggest that it is possible to tune the spreading parameters to optimize the coating.

Cold pulse and rotation reversals with turbulence spreading and residual stress

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hariri, F.; Naulin, V.; Juul Rasmussen, J.

2016-05-15

Transport modeling based on inclusion of turbulence spreading and residual stresses shows internal rotation reversals and polarity reversal of cold pulses, with a clear indication of nonlocal transport effects due to fast spreading in the turbulence intensity field. The effects of turbulence spreading and residual stress are calculated from the gradient of the turbulence intensity. In the model presented in this paper, the flux is carried by the turbulence intensity field, which in itself is subject to radial transport effects. The pulse polarity inversion and the rotation profile reversal positions are close to the radial location of the stable/unstable transition.more » Both effects have no direct explanation within the framework of classical transport modeling, where the fluxes are related directly to the linear growth rates, the turbulence intensity profile is not considered and the corresponding residual stress is absent. Our simulations are in qualitative agreement with measurements from ohmically heated plasmas. Rotation reversal at a finite radius is found in situations not displaying saturated confinement, which we identify as situations where the plasma is nearly everywhere unstable. As an additional and new effect, the model predicts a perturbation of the velocity profile following a cold pulse from the edge. This allows direct experimental confirmation of both the existence of residual stress caused by turbulence intensity profiles and fundamental ideas of transport modeling presented here.« less

EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, Augustin; Andersson, Camilla; Manders, Astrid; Mar, Kathleen; Mircea, Mihaela; Pay, Maria-Teresa; Raffort, Valentin; Tsyro, Svetlana; Cuvelier, Cornelius; Adani, Mario; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Bergström, Robert; Briganti, Gino; Butler, Tim; Cappelletti, Andrea; Couvidat, Florian; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Doumbia, Thierno; Fagerli, Hilde; Granier, Claire; Heyes, Chris; Klimont, Zig; Ojha, Narendra; Otero, Noelia; Schaap, Martijn; Sindelarova, Katarina; Stegehuis, Annemiek I.; Roustan, Yelva; Vautard, Robert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Garcia Vivanco, Marta; Wind, Peter

2017-09-01

The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990-2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have - to date - completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990-2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing.

Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia

PubMed Central

Fleming, Peter J. S.; Ward, Michael P.; Davis, Stephen A.

2017-01-01

Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies. PMID:28114327

Spreading and vanishing in a West Nile virus model with expanding fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboush, Abdelrazig K.; Lin, ZhiGui; Zhang, MengYun

2017-05-01

In this paper, we study a simplified version of a West Nile virus model discussed by Lewis et al. [28], which was considered as a first approximation for the spatial spread of WNv. The basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the non-spatial epidemic model is defined and a threshold parameter $R_0 ^D$ for the corresponding problem with null Dirichlet boundary condition is introduced. We consider a free boundary problem with coupled system, which describes the diffusion of birds by a PDE and the movement of mosquitoes by a ODE. The risk index $R_0^F (t)$ associated with the disease in spatial setting is represented. Sufficient conditions for the WNv to eradicate or to spread are given. The asymptotic behavior of the solution to system when the spreading occurs are considered. It is shown that the initial number of infected populations, the diffusion rate of birds and the length of initial habitat exhibit important impacts on the vanishing or spreading of the virus. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.

Turing-like structures in a functional model of cortical spreading depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verisokin, A. Yu.; Verveyko, D. V.; Postnov, D. E.

2017-12-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) along with migraine waves and spreading depolarization events with stroke or injures are the front-line examples of extreme physiological behaviors of the brain cortex which manifest themselves via the onset and spreading of localized areas of neuronal hyperactivity followed by their depression. While much is known about the physiological pathways involved, the dynamical mechanisms of the formation and evolution of complex spatiotemporal patterns during CSD are still poorly understood, in spite of the number of modeling studies that have been already performed. Recently we have proposed a relatively simple mathematical model of cortical spreading depression which counts the effects of neurovascular coupling and cerebral blood flow redistribution during CSD. In the present study, we address the main dynamical consequences of newly included pathways, namely, the changes in the formation and propagation speed of the CSD front and the pattern formation features in two dimensions. Our most notable finding is that the combination of vascular-mediated spatial coupling with local regulatory mechanisms results in the formation of stationary Turing-like patterns during a CSD event.

Occurrence and spread in Italy of Aedes albopictus, with implications for its introduction into other parts of Europe.

PubMed

Knudsen, A B; Romi, R; Majori, G

1996-06-01

Aedes albopictus is considered second only to Ae. aegypti in its importance to man as a disease vector of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever. The first sighting in 1979 of the vector species in Europe came from Albania; however, it was only when Ae. albopictus was introduced into Italy in 1990, through the importation of used tires, followed by its subsequent spread, that the species was considered as a threat to public health. At the close of 1995, Ae. albopictus infestations have been reported from 10 Italian regions and 19 provinces. The risk for greater distribution of Ae. albopictus in Europe can potentially be projected, based on well-established criteria such as: where the winter monthly mean temperature is 0 degree C, where at least 50 cm of mean annual rainfall occurs, and where the mean summer temperature is approximately 20 degrees C. Those countries where climatic conditions meet such criteria and that may be vulnerable to a potential introduction of Ae. albopictus include Spain, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, France, Albania, and the former Republic of Yugoslavia. The Italian plan of action, established for the surveillance and control of Ae. albopictus, is presented in detail.

Energy supply and demand modeling. April 1988-June 1990 (A Bibliography from the NTIS data base). Report for April 1988-June 1990

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-06-01

This bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (This updated bibliography contains 200 citations, all of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

[Rural depopulation: 1954-1990].

PubMed

Chauvel, L

1994-10-01

"The purpose of this paper is to present evidence for a long term link between employment and population [in rural France]. A model is built in order to describe the interaction between employment, migration and natural population increase over 1962-1990. This shows how declining departments are bound within a vicious mechanism: while the decline of local employment leads to population outflow, the population decline contributes to a further employment fall." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

The Rhetoric of a Reform: The Construction of "Public", "Management" and the "New" in Norwegian Education Reforms of the 1990s

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trippestad, Tom Are

2011-01-01

This article presents a critical rhetorical analysis of the governing and reform ideology of the Norwegian school system of the 1990s. It uses Karl Popper's "The Open Society and its Enemies" as a critical resource in the reading of the reforms, and discusses some of the consequences of the regime's models of leadership and public…

Transmission Dinamics Model Of Dengue Fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debora; Rendy; Rahmi

2018-01-01

Dengue fever is an endemic disease that is transmitted through the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector. The disease is present in more than 100 countries in America, Africa, and Asia, especially tropical countries. Differential equations can be used to represent the spread of dengue virus occurring in time intervals and model in the form of mathematical models. The mathematical model in this study tries to represent the spread of dengue fever based on the data obtained and the assumptions used. The mathematical model used is a mathematical model consisting of Susceptible (S), Infected (I), Viruses (V) subpopulations. The SIV mathematical model is then analyzed to see the solution behaviour of the system.

Molecular epidemiology of serogroup a meningitis in Moscow, 1969 to 1997.

PubMed Central

Achtman, M.; van der Ende, A.; Zhu, P.; Koroleva, I. S.; Kusecek, B.; Morelli, G.; Schuurman, I. G.; Brieske, N.; Zurth, K.; Kostyukova, N. N.; Platonov, A. E.

2001-01-01

Molecular analysis of 103 serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis strains isolated in Moscow from 1969 to 1997 showed that four independent clonal groupings were responsible for successive waves of meningococcal disease. An epidemic from 1969 to the mid-1970s was caused by genocloud 2 of subgroup III, possibly imported from China. Subsequent endemic disease through the early 1990s was caused by subgroup X and then by subgroup VI, which has also caused endemic disease elsewhere in eastern Europe. A 1996 epidemic was part of the pandemic spread from Asia of genocloud 8 of subgroup III. Recent genocloud 8 epidemic disease in Moscow may represent an early warning for spread of these bacteria to other countries in Europe. PMID:11384519

A mechanistic model for spread of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) within a pig herd

PubMed Central

Toft, Nils; Boklund, Anette; Espinosa-Gongora, Carmen; Græsbøll, Kaare; Larsen, Jesper; Halasa, Tariq

2017-01-01

Before an efficient control strategy for livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) in pigs can be decided upon, it is necessary to obtain a better understanding of how LA-MRSA spreads and persists within a pig herd, once it is introduced. We here present a mechanistic stochastic discrete-event simulation model for spread of LA-MRSA within a farrow-to-finish sow herd to aid in this. The model was individual-based and included three different disease compartments: susceptible, intermittent or persistent shedder of MRSA. The model was used for studying transmission dynamics and within-farm prevalence after different introductions of LA-MRSA into a farm. The spread of LA-MRSA throughout the farm mainly followed the movement of pigs. After spread of LA-MRSA had reached equilibrium, the prevalence of LA-MRSA shedders was predicted to be highest in the farrowing unit, independent of how LA-MRSA was introduced. LA-MRSA took longer to spread to the whole herd if introduced in the finisher stable, rather than by gilts in the mating stable. The more LA-MRSA positive animals introduced, the shorter time before the prevalence in the herd stabilised. Introduction of a low number of intermittently shedding pigs was predicted to frequently result in LA-MRSA fading out. The model is a potential decision support tool for assessments of short and long term consequences of proposed intervention strategies or surveillance options for LA-MRSA within pig herds. PMID:29182655

Modeling the spreading of large-scale wildland fires

Treesearch

Mohamed Drissi

2015-01-01

The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a stochastic small-world network model with those of a deterministic semi-physical model of the interaction between burning and non-burning...

Energetic analysis of drop's maximum spreading on solid surface with low impact speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Hai-Meng; Chen, Xiao-Peng

2018-02-01

Drops impacting on a flat solid surface will spread until it reaches maximum contact with the substrate underneath. After that, it recoils. In the present work, the variations of energy components during the spreading are studied carefully, including kinetic, capillary, and dissipated energies. Our experimental and numerical results show that, when the impact speed is low, the fast slipping of the contact line (in inertia-capillary regime) and corresponding "interface relaxation" lead to extra dissipation. An auxiliary dissipation is therefore introduced into the traditional theoretical model. The energy components predicted by the improved model agree with the experimental and numerical results very well. As the impact speed increases (the Weber number, W e =ρ D0V02/γ , becomes larger than 40 in the present work), the dissipation induced by the initial velocity plays more important roles. The analyses also indicate that on the hydrophobic surfaces the auxiliary dissipation is lower than that on hydrophilic ones. In the later circumstances, the contact angle is larger and the spreading is weaker.

Private Militias: The Cancer of the American Society

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-01

large legal settlements against the traditional hate groups (the Ku Klux Klan and Aryan Nations), membership enrollment declined in the 1990s; whereas...the legal settlements against the “hate groups” have driven many of their members to either seek out other organizations with shared beliefs or to...take away the legal rights of Americans, committed the OKC bombing, spread toxins across America via contrails from aircraft, attempted to cause a

Continental extension, magmatism and elevation; formal relations and rules of thumb

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lachenbruch, A.H.; Morgan, P.

1990-01-01

To investigate simplified relations between elevation and the extensional, magmatic and thermal processes that influence lithosphere buoyancy, we assume that the lithosphere floats on an asthenosphere of uniform density and has no flexural strength. A simple graph relating elevation to lithosphere density and thickness provides an overview of expectable conditions around the earth and a simple test for consistancy of continental and oceanic lithosphere models. The mass-balance relations yield simple general rules for estimating elevation changes caused by various tectonic, magmatic and thermal processes without referring to detailed models. The rules are general because they depend principally on buoyancy, which under our assumptions is specified by elevation, a known quantity; they do not generally require a knowledge of lithosphere thickness and density. The elevation of an extended terrain contains important information on its tectonic and magmatic history. In the Great Basin where Cenozoic extension is estimated to be 100%, the present high mean elevation ( ~ 1.75 km) probably requires substantial low-density magmatic contributions to the extending lithosphere. The elevation cannot be reasonably explained solely as the buoyant residue of a very high initial terrane, or of a lithosphere that was initially very thick and subsequently delaminated and heated. Even models with a high initial elevation typically call for 10 km or so of accumulated magmatic material of near-crustal density. To understand the evolution of the Great Basin, it is important to determine whether such intruded material is present; some could replenish the stretching crust by underplating and crustal intrusion and some might reside in the upper mantle. The elevation maintained or approached by an intruded extending lithosphere depends on the ratio B of how fast magma is supplied from the asthenosphere ( b km/Ma) to how fast the lithosphere spreads the magma out by extension (?? Ma-1). For a surface maintained 2 1 2km below sea level (e.g., an ocean ridge) B is about 5 km; for continental extension the ratio may be much greater. The frequent association of volcanism with continental extension, the high elevation (and buoyancy) of some appreciably extended terrains, and the oceanic spreading analog all suggest that magmatism may play an important role in continental extension. Better estimates of total extension and elevation change in extended regions can help to identify that role. ?? 1990.

Distribution and winter survival health of Asian clams, Corbicula fluminea, in the St. Clair River, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

French, John R. P.; Schloesser, Don W.

1996-01-01

We studied the distribution and winter survival of the Asian clam, Corbicula fluminea, in the St. Clair River from the fall of 1988 to the spring of 1990. Between fall of 1988 and spring of 1989, distribution of Corbicula was extended from 5.5 to 11.5 km downstream from an electric power plant. However, total abundance of clams decreased during the winter. By fall of 1989, Corbicula was found 14.5 km from the power plant, and the mean density of clams was 27 individuals/m2. Between fall of 1989 and spring of 1990, distribution was reduced to 7.5 km from the power plant and abundance decreased 97%. During the winter of 1988-1989, we collected clams monthly from one station 2.2 km from the power plant, and we observed that clams survived the harsh winter for two months after the water temperature dropped about 1.5°C below the reported lethal level for Corbicula in midwinter. During the winer of 1989-1990, we held clams at the sediment-water interface in enclosures, and we observed that condition indices (dry body weight; dry shell weight) of clams remained stable (mean = 0.05 ± 0.01) in December and January and then declined significantly (p < 0.05) to 0.04 ± 0.01 in February. All clams perished by late March. The deteriorating physiological state of clams, as indicated by declining condition index, seemingly is a factor in late winter mortalities of Corbicula in the St. Clair River. In contrast to the rapid geographic spread and population increases in the southern United States, Corbicula likely will not spread rapidly throughout the Great Lakes beyond shoreline thermal refugia of heated-water discharge plumes from power plants.

A new numerical formulation of gas leakage and spread into a residential space in terms of hazard analysis.

PubMed

Nagaosa, Ryuichi S

2014-04-30

This study proposes a new numerical formulation of the spread of a flammable gas leakage. A new numerical approach has been applied to establish fundamental data for a hazard assessment of flammable gas spread in an enclosed residential space. The approach employs an extended version of a two-compartment concept, and determines the leakage concentration of gas using a mass-balance based formulation. The study also introduces a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique for calculating three-dimensional details of the gas spread by resolving all the essential scales of fluid motions without a turbulent model. The present numerical technique promises numerical solutions with fewer uncertainties produced by the model equations while maintaining high accuracy. The study examines the effect of gas density on the concentration profiles of flammable gas spread. It also discusses the effect of gas leakage rate on gas concentration profiles. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International spread of an epidemic population of Salmonella enterica serotype Kentucky ST198 resistant to ciprofloxacin.

PubMed

Le Hello, Simon; Hendriksen, Rene S; Doublet, Benoît; Fisher, Ian; Nielsen, Eva Møller; Whichard, Jean M; Bouchrif, Brahim; Fashae, Kayode; Granier, Sophie A; Jourdan-Da Silva, Nathalie; Cloeckaert, Axel; Threlfall, E John; Angulo, Frederick J; Aarestrup, Frank M; Wain, John; Weill, François-Xavier

2011-09-01

National Salmonella surveillance systems from France, England and Wales, Denmark, and the United States identified the recent emergence of multidrug-resistant isolates of Salmonella enterica serotype Kentucky displaying high-level resistance to ciprofloxacin. A total of 489 human cases were identified during the period from 2002 (3 cases) to 2008 (174 cases). These isolates belonged to a single clone defined by the multilocus sequence type ST198, the XbaI-pulsed-field gel electrophoresis cluster X1, and the presence of the Salmonella genomic island 1 variant SGI1-K. This clone was probably selected in 3 steps in Egypt during the 1990s and the early 2000s and has now spread to several countries in Africa and, more recently, in the Middle East. Poultry has been identified as a potential major vehicle for infection by this clone. Continued surveillance and appropriate control measures should be implemented by national and international authorities to limit the spread of this strain.

A Multi-agent Simulation Tool for Micro-scale Contagion Spread Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, Daniel B

2016-01-01

Within the disaster preparedness and emergency response community, there is interest in how contagions spread person-to-person at large gatherings and if mitigation strategies can be employed to reduce new infections. A contagion spread simulation module was developed for the Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit that allows a user to see how a geographically accurate layout of the gathering space helps or hinders the spread of a contagion. The results can inform mitigation strategies based on changing the physical layout of an event space. A case study was conducted for a particular event to calibrate the underlying simulation model. Thismore » paper presents implementation details of the simulation code that incorporates agent movement and disease propagation. Elements of the case study are presented to show how the tool can be used.« less

How the contagion at links influences epidemic spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Liu, Zonghua

2013-04-01

The reaction-diffusion (RD) model of epidemic spreading generally assume that contagion occurs only at the nodes of network, i.e., the links are used only for migration/diffusion of agents. However, in reality, we observe that contagion occurs also among the travelers staying in the same car, train or plane etc., which consist of the links of network. To reflect the contagious effect of links, we here present a traveling-contagion model where contagion occurs not only at nodes but also at links. Considering that the population density in transportation is generally much larger than that in districts, we introduce different infection rates for the nodes and links, respectively, whose two extreme cases correspond to the type-I and type-II reactions in the RD model [V. Colizza, R. Pastor-Satorras, A. Vespignani, Nat. Phys. 3, 276 (2007)]. Through studying three typical diffusion processes, we reveal both numerically and theoretically that the contagion at links can accelerate significantly the epidemic spreading. This finding is helpful in designing the controlling strategies of epidemic spreading.

Branching dynamics of viral information spreading.

PubMed

Iribarren, José Luis; Moro, Esteban

2011-10-01

Despite its importance for rumors or innovations propagation, peer-to-peer collaboration, social networking, or marketing, the dynamics of information spreading is not well understood. Since the diffusion depends on the heterogeneous patterns of human behavior and is driven by the participants' decisions, its propagation dynamics shows surprising properties not explained by traditional epidemic or contagion models. Here we present a detailed analysis of our study of real viral marketing campaigns where tracking the propagation of a controlled message allowed us to analyze the structure and dynamics of a diffusion graph involving over 31,000 individuals. We found that information spreading displays a non-Markovian branching dynamics that can be modeled by a two-step Bellman-Harris branching process that generalizes the static models known in the literature and incorporates the high variability of human behavior. It explains accurately all the features of information propagation under the "tipping point" and can be used for prediction and management of viral information spreading processes.

Branching dynamics of viral information spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iribarren, José Luis; Moro, Esteban

2011-10-01

Despite its importance for rumors or innovations propagation, peer-to-peer collaboration, social networking, or marketing, the dynamics of information spreading is not well understood. Since the diffusion depends on the heterogeneous patterns of human behavior and is driven by the participants’ decisions, its propagation dynamics shows surprising properties not explained by traditional epidemic or contagion models. Here we present a detailed analysis of our study of real viral marketing campaigns where tracking the propagation of a controlled message allowed us to analyze the structure and dynamics of a diffusion graph involving over 31 000 individuals. We found that information spreading displays a non-Markovian branching dynamics that can be modeled by a two-step Bellman-Harris branching process that generalizes the static models known in the literature and incorporates the high variability of human behavior. It explains accurately all the features of information propagation under the “tipping point” and can be used for prediction and management of viral information spreading processes.

Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

2014-05-01

Fire channelling is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep lee-facing slope in a direction transverse to the background winds, and is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and extreme pyro-convection. Recent work using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire model has demonstrated that fire channelling can be characterised as vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VDLS). In this study, 16 simulations are conducted using WRF-Fire to examine the sensitivity of resolving VDLS to spatial resolution and atmosphere-fire coupling within the WRF-Fire model framework. The horizontal grid spacing is varied between 25 and 90 m, and the two-way atmosphere-fire coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolution, the atmosphere-fire coupling increases the peak uphill and lateral spread rate by a factor of up to 2.7 and 9.5. The enhancement of the uphill and lateral spread rate diminishes at coarser spatial resolution, and VDLS is not modelled for a horizontal grid spacing of 90 m. The laterally spreading fire fronts become the dominant contributors of the extreme pyro-convection. The resolved fire-induced vortices responsible for driving the lateral spread in the coupled simulations have non-zero vorticity along each unit vector direction, and develop due to an interaction between the background winds and vertical return circulations generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere-fire coupling are required to reproduce VDLS within the current WRF-Fire model framework.

Optimal Network-based Intervention in the Presence of Undetectable Viruses.

PubMed

Youssef, Mina; Scoglio, Caterina

2014-08-01

This letter presents an optimal control framework to reduce the spread of viruses in networks. The network is modeled as an undirected graph of nodes and weighted links. We consider the spread of viruses in a network as a system, and the total number of infected nodes as the state of the system, while the control function is the weight reduction leading to slow/reduce spread of viruses. Our epidemic model overcomes three assumptions that were extensively used in the literature and produced inaccurate results. We apply the optimal control formulation to crucial network structures. Numerical results show the dynamical weight reduction and reveal the role of the network structure and the epidemic model in reducing the infection size in the presence of indiscernible infected nodes.

Optimal Network-based Intervention in the Presence of Undetectable Viruses

PubMed Central

Youssef, Mina; Scoglio, Caterina

2014-01-01

This letter presents an optimal control framework to reduce the spread of viruses in networks. The network is modeled as an undirected graph of nodes and weighted links. We consider the spread of viruses in a network as a system, and the total number of infected nodes as the state of the system, while the control function is the weight reduction leading to slow/reduce spread of viruses. Our epidemic model overcomes three assumptions that were extensively used in the literature and produced inaccurate results. We apply the optimal control formulation to crucial network structures. Numerical results show the dynamical weight reduction and reveal the role of the network structure and the epidemic model in reducing the infection size in the presence of indiscernible infected nodes. PMID:25422579

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2015-04-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS (LOng Term Ozone Simulation - EURopean Operational Smog) to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by RACMO2 (Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel). Observations at European rural background sites have been used as a reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data, stringent selection criteria were applied, including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulfur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990s, while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000 and 2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulfate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured well these non-linear responses to the emission changes. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module, trends in the formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulfate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses in the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990s used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. H. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2014-07-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by the regional climate model RACMO2. Observations at European rural background sites have been used as reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data stringent selection criteria were applied including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the day-to-day, seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulphur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both, the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990's while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000-2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulphate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are significantly lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured these non-linear responses to the emission changes well. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module trends in formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulphate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses to the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990's used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

HF Channel Availability under Ionospheric Disturbances: Model, Method and Measurements as Contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulunay, E.; Senalp, E. T.; Tulunay, Y.; Warrington, E. M.; Sari, M. O.

2009-04-01

A small group at METU has been developing data driven models in order to forecast some critical parameters, which affect the communication and navigation systems, since 1990. The background on the subjects supports new achievements in terms of theoretical and experimental basis contributing the COST 296 WG2 activities. This work mentions the representative contributions. (i) A method has been proposed for the assessment of HF Channel Availability under ionospheric disturbances. Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), Doppler Spread and Modified Power Delay Spread were considered. The study relates the modem performance to ionospheric disturbances. Ionospheric disturbance was characterised by Disturbance Storm Type (DST) index. Radar data including Effective Multipath Spread, Composite Doppler Spread and SNR values were obtained from the experiment conducted between Leicester UK (52.63° N; 1.08° W) and Uppsala, Sweden (59.92° N; 17.63° E) in the year 2001. First, joint probability density function (PDF) of SNR, Doppler Spread, and Effective Multipath Spread versus DST were considered. It was demonstrated by determining the conditional PDFs, and by using Bayes' Theorem, that there were dependencies between DST and the above mentioned parameters [Sari, 2006]. Thus, it is concluded that the availability of the HF channel is a function of DST. As examples of modem characterizations, Military Standards were considered. Given a magnetic condition, the modem availability was calculated. The model developed represents the ionospheric HF channel, and it is based on a stochastic approach. Depending on the new experimental data, the conditional PDFs could be updated continuously. The HF channel availability under various ionospheric Space Weather (SW) conditions can be determined using the model. The proposed method is general and can include other indices as well. The method can also be applied to a variety of other processes. (ii) The effects of space weather conditions on the variation of group range and line-of-sight Doppler velocity of the HF Radar echo signal were investigated. HF radar system under ionospheric disturbances has been identified globally and some operational suggestions have been presented. It is possible for the HF radar operator to estimate the possible skip distance and possible single hop group ranges for the given frequencies of 11 MHz and 14 MHz [Buyukpabuscu, 2007]. (iii) The measurements over the HF band during the 29 March 2006 total solar eclipse in Antalya (36° N; 30° E) Turkey was conducted from the channel occupancy and atmospheric noise points of view. The whole HF band ranging from 1 to 30 MHz has been swept using 10 kHz peak and 200 Hz average detectors of a certified EMI receiver equipped with a calibrated active monopole antenna. The changes in the atmospheric noise during the eclipse were reported [Tulunay, 2006]. The model based, theoretical and experimental works mentioned are promising and have potential for future research and developments. References Buyukpabuscu S.O. (2007), System Identification with Particular Interest On The High Frequency Radar Under Ionospheric Disturbances, MS Thesis, Electrical and Electronics Eng., Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey, February 2007. Sari M.O. (2006), A New Approach For The Assessment Of Hf Channel Availability Under Ionospheric Disturbances, MS Thesis, Electrical and Electronics Eng., Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey, September 2006. Tulunay E., E. M. Warrington, Y. Tulunay, Y. Bahadırlar, A.S. Türk, R. Çaputçu, T. Yapıcı , E.T. Şenalp (2006), Propagation Related Measurements during Three Solar Eclipses in Turkey, IET 10th International Conference on Ionospheric Radio Systems & Techniques, IRST 2006, 18-21 July 2006, London, UK.

Estimation of hydrothermal deposits location from magnetization distribution and magnetic properties in the North Fiji Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, S.; Kim, C.; Park, C.; Kim, H.

2013-12-01

The North Fiji Basin is belong to one of the youngest basins of back-arc basins in the southwest Pacific (from 12 Ma ago). We performed the marine magnetic and the bathymetry survey in the North Fiji Basin for finding the submarine hydrothermal deposits in April 2012. We acquired magnetic and bathymetry datasets by using Multi-Beam Echo Sounder EM120 (Kongsberg Co.) and Overhouser Proton Magnetometer SeaSPY (Marine Magnetics Co.). We conducted the data processing to obtain detailed seabed topography, magnetic anomaly, reduce to the pole(RTP), analytic signal and magnetization. The study areas composed of the two areas(KF-1(longitude : 173.5 ~ 173.7 and latitude : -16.2 ~ -16.5) and KF-3(longitude : 173.4 ~ 173.6 and latitude : -18.7 ~ -19.1)) in Central Spreading Ridge(CSR) and one area(KF-2(longitude : 173.7 ~ 174 and latitude : -16.8 ~ -17.2)) in Triple Junction(TJ). The seabed topography of KF-1 existed thin horst in two grabens that trends NW-SE direction. The magnetic properties of KF-1 showed high magnetic anomalies in center part and magnetic lineament structure of trending E-W direction. In the magnetization distribution of KF-1, the low magnetization zone matches well with a strong analytic signal in the northeastern part. KF-2 area has TJ. The seabed topography formed like Y-shape and showed a high feature in the center of TJ. The magnetic properties of KF-2 displayed high magnetic anomalies in N-S spreading ridge center and northwestern part. In the magnetization distribution of KF-2, the low magnetization zone matches well with a strong analytic signal in the northeastern part. The seabed topography of KF-3 presented a flat and high topography like dome structure at center axis and some seamounts scattered around the axis. The magnetic properties of KF-3 showed high magnetic anomalies in N-S spreading ridge center part. In the magnetization of KF-2, the low magnetization zone mismatches to strong analytic signal in this area. The difference of KF-3 between the low magnetization zones and the analytic signals is considered that the submarine magnetic strength of KF-3 is lower than that of KF-1 and KF-2. The spreading ridges of the study areas showed common Central Anomaly Magnetization Highs (CAMH). As a whole, the previous studies on the structure of this study area (Auzende et al, 1990) support our results of the magnetic properties (Magnetic Anomaly and RTP). We can expect to have the better results by comparing with the other study like geophysics (seismic), geology, and geochemistry in this area. Reference Auzende, J.M., and 29 others, Active Spreading and Hydrothermalism in North Fiji Basin(SW Pacific). Results of Japanese French Cruise Kaiyo 87, Marine Geophysical Researches., 12, 269-283, 1990.

Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. Methods We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. Results The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. Conclusions We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial. PMID:21554680

Herding cats? A multi-model perspective on tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, P. J.

2015-12-01

Various global multi-model studies have investigated tropospheric ozone changes over multi-decadal timescales. Several robust features emerge, which - for instance - allows the IPCC to associate high confidence in the radiative forcing associated with ozone increases between 1750 and the present day. However, such quantities hide the spread in results between different models, particularly when looking at seasonal and regional scales, and including for comparisons with observations. What can we learn about our scientific understanding from the model spread? What can we learn about models from the model spread? And can we make recommendations for deficient or missing processes if we wish to use our models for environmental prediction? Of course, these questions also have to be asked in the context of what we want the model(s) to do (air quality, climate, stratospheric ozone depletion etc.). This poster will report ongoing work in my group which draws on results from multi-model experiments conducted in support of the most recent IPCC report (CMIP5 and ACCMIP), with an eye to the expected outcomes from the ongoing Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) model simulations.

An Improved Adaptive model for Information Recommending and Spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Duan-Bing; Gao, Hui

2012-04-01

People in the Internet era have to cope with information overload and expend great effort on finding what they need. Recent experiments indicate that recommendations based on users' past activities are usually less favored than those based on social relationships, and thus many researchers have proposed adaptive algorithms on social recommendation. However, in those methods, quite a number of users have little chance to recommend information, which might prevent valuable information from spreading. We present an improved algorithm that allows more users to have enough followers to spread information. Experimental results demonstrate that both recommendation precision and spreading effectiveness of our method can be improved significantly.

A Study of Confined Diffusion Flames

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-04

Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 11. Numerical Methods and the Model ...numbers but kept the basic idea of the flame sheet model . This paper describes a time-dependent, axisymmetric, compressible nu- merical model which is...June 5, 1990. first uses of the diffusion flame model , we simulate a Burke-Schumann flame and remove the restrictious individually. We present results

Channel fading for mobile satellite communications using spread spectrum signaling and TDRSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, Jeffrey D.; Fan, Yiping; Osborne, William P.

1995-01-01

This paper will present some preliminary results from a propagation experiment which employed NASA's TDRSS and an 8 MHz chip rate spread spectrum signal. Channel fade statistics were measured and analyzed in 21 representative geographical locations covering urban/suburban, open plain, and forested areas. Cumulative distribution Functions (CDF's) of 12 individual locations are presented and classified based on location. Representative CDF's from each of these three types of terrain are summarized. These results are discussed, and the fade depths exceeded 10 percent of the time in three types of environments are tabulated. The spread spectrum fade statistics for tree-lined roads are compared with the Empirical Roadside Shadowing Model.

A safety rule approach to surveillance and eradication of biological invasions

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Robert G. Haight; Frank H. Koch; Robert Venette; Kala Studens; Ronald E. Fournier; Tom Swystun; Jean J. Turgeon; Yulin Gao

2017-01-01

Uncertainty about future spread of invasive organisms hinders planning of effective response measures. We present a two-stage scenario optimization model that accounts for uncertainty about the spread of an invader, and determines survey and eradication strategies that minimize the expected program cost subject to a safety rule for eradication success. The safety rule...

Mapping the risk of sudden oak death in Oregon: prioritizing locations for early detection and eradication

Treesearch

V& aacute; clavík Tom& aacute; & scaron; ; Alan Kanaskie; Ellen Goheen; Janet Ohmann; Everett Hansen; Ross Meentemeyer

2010-01-01

Phytophthora ramorum was first discovered in forests of southwestern Oregon in 2001. Despite intense eradication efforts, disease continues to spread from initially infested sites because of the late discovery of disease outbreaks and incomplete detection. Here we present two GIS predictive models of sudden oak death (SOD) establishment and spread...

How events determine spreading patterns: information transmission via internal and external influences on social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chuang; Zhan, Xiu-Xiu; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Sun, Gui-Quan; Hui, Pak Ming

2015-11-01

Recently, information transmission models motivated by the classical epidemic propagation, have been applied to a wide-range of social systems, generally assume that information mainly transmits among individuals via peer-to-peer interactions on social networks. In this paper, we consider one more approach for users to get information: the out-of-social-network influence. Empirical analyzes of eight typical events’ diffusion on a very large micro-blogging system, Sina Weibo, show that the external influence has significant impact on information spreading along with social activities. In addition, we propose a theoretical model to interpret the spreading process via both internal and external channels, considering three essential properties: (i) memory effect; (ii) role of spreaders; and (iii) non-redundancy of contacts. Experimental and mathematical results indicate that the information indeed spreads much quicker and broader with mutual effects of the internal and external influences. More importantly, the present model reveals that the event characteristic would highly determine the essential spreading patterns once the network structure is established. The results may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of the underlying dynamics of information transmission on real social networks.

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

PubMed

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

Joint modeling of human dwellings and the natural ecosystem at the wildland-urban interface helps mitigation of forest-fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Spyratos, V.; Bourgeron, P. S.

2007-12-01

The late summer of 2007 has seen again a large number of catastrophic forest fires in the Western United States and Southern Europe. These fires arose in or spread to human habitats at the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Within the conterminous United States alone, the WUI occupies just under 10 percent of the surface and contains almost 40 percent of all housing units. Recent dry spells associated with climate variability and climate change make the impact of such catastrophic fires a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists and the general public. In order to explore the qualitative influence of the presence of houses on fire spread, we considered only uniform landscapes and fire spread as a simple percolation process, with given house densities d and vegetation flammabilities p. Wind, topography, fuel heterogeneities, firebrands and weather affect actual fire spread. The present theoretical results would therefore, need to be integrated into more detailed fire models before practical, quantitative applications of the present results. Our simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, shows that fire-size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density d and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability p and house density d. The sharpness of this transition is related to the critical thresholds that arise in percolation theory for an infinite domain; it is their translation into our model's finite-area domain, which is a more realistic representation of actual fire landscapes. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition zone. Hence, and despite having neglected additional complexities, our idealized model's results indicate that more detailed models used for assessing fire risk in the WUI should integrate the density and flammability of houses in these areas. Furthermore, our results imply that fire proofing houses and their immediate surroundings within the WUI would not only reduce the houses' flammability and increase the security of the inhabitants, but also reduce fire risk for the entire landscape.

A Stochastic Differential Equation Model for the Spread of HIV amongst People Who Inject Drugs.

PubMed

Liang, Yanfeng; Greenhalgh, David; Mao, Xuerong

2016-01-01

We introduce stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation model for the spread of HIV amongst people who inject drugs (PWIDs) studied by Greenhalgh and Hay (1997). This was based on the original model constructed by Kaplan (1989) which analyses the behaviour of HIV/AIDS amongst a population of PWIDs. We derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the fraction of PWIDs who are infected with HIV at time. The stochasticity is introduced using the well-known standard technique of parameter perturbation. We first prove that the resulting SDE for the fraction of infected PWIDs has a unique solution in (0, 1) provided that some infected PWIDs are initially present and next construct the conditions required for extinction and persistence. Furthermore, we show that there exists a stationary distribution for the persistence case. Simulations using realistic parameter values are then constructed to illustrate and support our theoretical results. Our results provide new insight into the spread of HIV amongst PWIDs. The results show that the introduction of stochastic noise into a model for the spread of HIV amongst PWIDs can cause the disease to die out in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence.

On the existence of a threshold for preventive behavioral responses to suppress epidemic spreading.

PubMed

Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Chowdhury, Fahmida N; Scoglio, Caterina M

2012-01-01

The spontaneous behavioral responses of individuals to the progress of an epidemic are recognized to have a significant impact on how the infection spreads. One observation is that, even if the infection strength is larger than the classical epidemic threshold, the initially growing infection can diminish as the result of preventive behavioral patterns adopted by the individuals. In order to investigate such dynamics of the epidemic spreading, we use a simple behavioral model coupled with the individual-based SIS epidemic model where susceptible individuals adopt a preventive behavior when sensing infection. We show that, given any infection strength and contact topology, there exists a region in the behavior-related parameter space such that infection cannot survive in long run and is completely contained. Several simulation results, including a spreading scenario in a realistic contact network from a rural district in the State of Kansas, are presented to support our analytical arguments.

Phase-Space Transport of Stochastic Chaos in Population Dynamics of Virus Spread

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billings, Lora; Bollt, Erik M.; Schwartz, Ira B.

2002-06-01

A general way to classify stochastic chaos is presented and applied to population dynamics models. A stochastic dynamical theory is used to develop an algorithmic tool to measure the transport across basin boundaries and predict the most probable regions of transport created by noise. The results of this tool are illustrated on a model of virus spread in a large population, where transport regions reveal how noise completes the necessary manifold intersections for the creation of emerging stochastic chaos.

Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

2014-09-01

Vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VLS) is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep leeward slope in a direction approximately transverse to the background winds. VLS is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and intense pyro-convection. In this study, the WRF-Fire (WRF stands for Weather Research and Forecasting) coupled atmosphere-fire model is used to examine the sensitivity of resolving VLS to both the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling from within the model framework. The atmospheric horizontal and vertical grid spacing are varied between 25 and 90 m, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolutions, the inclusion of fire-to-atmosphere coupling increases the upslope and lateral rate of spread by factors of up to 2.7 and 9.5, respectively. This increase in the upslope and lateral rate of spread diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions, and VLS is not modelled for a horizontal and vertical grid spacing of 90 m. The lateral fire spread is driven by fire whirls formed due to an interaction between the background winds and the vertical circulation generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The laterally advancing fire fronts become the dominant contributors to the extreme pyro-convection. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere-fire coupling are required to model VLS with WRF-Fire.

Outlook for ash in your forest: results of emerald ash borer research and implications for management

Treesearch

Kathleen S. Knight

2014-01-01

Since its accidental introduction near Detroit, Michigan, in the mid-1990s, emerald ash borer (EAB) has rapidly spread through much of the U.S. and adjacent Canada, leaving millions of dead ash trees in Midwestern states (4,11). Unfortunately, EAB attacks trees as small as an inch in stem diameter and it attacks all five ash species native to the region - white, green...

Psychosocial Aspects of HIV and AIDS and the Evaluation of Preventive Strategies: Report on a WHO Meeting (Lisbon, Portugal, May 28-June 1, 1990). WHO Regional Publications, European Series, No. 36.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Health Organization, Copenhagen (Denmark). Regional Office for Europe.

The spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) depends very much on the way people behave. Individuals from some groups have been successfully persuaded to modify behaviors that put them at increased risk of HIV infection. The salient questions for future AIDS prevention and control programs are…

[Psymobile and the phenomenon of the hikikomori].

PubMed

Chauliac, Nicolas; Depraz, Pierre; Pacaut-Troncin, Michèle; Straub, Sylvie; Terra, Jean-Louis

2015-01-01

By its very nature, the Psymobile team is often called on to visit young adults who remain confined at home but who have no diagnosed psychiatric conditions. The team has consequently become interested in the Japanese concept of hikikomori, a notion which appeared in the 1990s and which has since spread across the world. This concept still arouses some amount of discussion regarding its aetiology, its precise definition and its relevance outside Japan.

Salmonella enteritidis outbreak in Thailand: study by random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis.

PubMed

Kantama, L; Jayanetra, P

1996-03-01

An outbreak of Salmonella enteritidis in Thailand was reported in 1990. The majority of isolates were found in chicken and human throughout the country. The continuation of a high rate of spreading which is presently continuing prompted us to investigate possible clonal involvement in the outbreak. One hundred and twenty five isolates of S. enteritidis which were isolated between 1990-1993 were clonally identified by the technique of Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis. Eight profiles were found indicating the presence of 8 clones, designated no. 1-8. The predominant clone was profile no. 4 which was encountered in 93.6% of tested isolates while the rest of the profile comprised only 0.8-1.6%. The predominant clone was distributed mainly in isolates from chickens and humans which is suggestive that the profile no. 4 is the major clone involved in this outbreak and that chickens were the source of S. enteritidis infection. The information from the Microbiology Laboratory at Ramathibodi Hospital revealed that nearly 40% of S. enteritidis were isolated from blood specimens. This may reflect the invasiveness of S. enteritidis in Thailand. We concluded that the outbreak involved the single clone, RAPD profile no. 4 which may disperse dominantly during the epidemic.

New Synthesis of Ocean Crust Velocity Structure From Two-Dimensional Profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christeson, G. L.; Goff, J.; Carlson, R. L.; Reece, R.

2017-12-01

The velocity structure of typical oceanic crust consists of Layer 2, where velocities increase rapidly with depth from seafloor, and Layer 3, which is thicker and has a lower velocity gradient. Previous syntheses have found no correlation of velocity structure with spreading rate, even though we know that magmatic processes differ between slow-spreading and fast-spreading crust. We present a new synthesis of ocean crust velocity structure, compiling observations from two-dimensional studies in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins. The Layer 2/3 boundary was picked from each publication at a change in gradient either on velocity-depth functions or contour plots (with at least 0.5 km/s contour interval), or from the appropriate layer boundary for layered models. We picked multiple locations at each seismic refraction profile if warranted by model variability. Preliminary results show statistically significant differences in average Layer 2 and Layer 3 thicknesses between slow-spreading and superfast-spreading crust, with Layer 2 thinner and Layer 3 thicker for the higher spreading rate crust. The thickness changes are about equivalent, resulting in no change in mean crustal thickness. The Layer 2/3 boundary is often interpreted as the top of the gabbros; however, a comparison with mapped magma lens depths at the ridge axis shows that the boundary is typically deeper than average axial melt lens depth at superfast-spreading crust, and shallower at intermediate-spreading crust.

Economic impact from unrestricted spread of potato cyst nematodes in australia.

PubMed

Hodda, M; Cook, D C

2009-12-01

ABSTRACT Potato cyst nematodes (PCN) (Globodera spp.) are quarantine pests with serious potential economic consequences. Recent new detections in Australia, Canada, and the United States have focussed attention on the consequences of spread and economic justifications for alternative responses. Here, a full assessment of the economic impact of PCN spread from a small initial incursion is presented. Models linking spread, population growth, and economic impact are combined to estimate costs of spread without restriction in Australia. Because the characteristics of the Australian PCN populations are currently unknown, the known ranges of parameters were used to obtain cost scenarios, an approach which makes the model predictions applicable generally. Our analysis indicates that mean annual costs associated with spread of PCN would increase rapidly initially, associated with increased testing. Costs would then increase more slowly to peak at over AUD$20 million per year approximately 10 years into the future. Afterward, this annual cost would decrease slightly due to discounting factors. Mean annual costs over 20 years were $18.7 million, with a 90% confidence interval between AUD$11.9 million and AUD$27.0 million. Thus, cumulative losses to Australian agriculture over 20 years may exceed $370 million without action to prevent spread of PCN and entry to new areas.

Reducing HIV infection in people who inject drugs is impossible without targeting recently-infected subjects

PubMed Central

Vasylyeva, Tetyana I.; Friedman, Samuel R.; Lourenco, Jose; Gupta, Sunetra; Hatzakis, Angelos; Pybus, Oliver G.; Katzourakis, Aris; Smyrnov, Pavlo; Karamitros, Timokratis; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Magiorkinis, Gkikas

2016-01-01

Objective: Although our understanding of viral transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) has improved, we still know little about when and how many times each injector transmits HIV throughout the duration of infection. We describe HIV dynamics in PWID to evaluate which preventive strategies can be efficient. Design: Due to the notably scarce interventions, HIV-1 spread explosively in Russia and Ukraine in 1990s. By studying this epidemic between 1995 and 2005, we characterized naturally occurring transmission dynamics of HIV among PWID. Method: We combined publicly available HIV pol and env sequences with prevalence estimates from Russia and Ukraine under an evolutionary epidemiology framework to characterize HIV transmissibility between PWID. We then constructed compartmental models to simulate HIV spread among PWID. Results: In the absence of interventions, each injector transmits on average to 10 others. Half of the transmissions take place within 1 month after primary infection, suggesting that the epidemic will expand even after blocking all the post–first month transmissions. Primary prevention can realistically target the first month of infection, and we show that it is very efficient to control the spread of HIV-1 in PWID. Treating acutely infected on top of primary prevention is notably effective. Conclusion: As a large proportion of transmissions among PWID occur within 1 month after infection, reducing and delaying transmissions through scale-up of harm reduction programmes should always form the backbone of HIV control strategies in PWID. Growing PWID populations in the developing world, where primary prevention is scarce, constitutes a public health time bomb. PMID:27824626

Estimation of GHG emissions in Egypt up to the year 2020

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

ElMahgary, Y.; Abdel-Fattah, A.I.; Shama, M.A.

1994-09-01

Within the frame of UNEP's project on the Methodologies of Determining the Costs of Abatement of GHG Emissions, a case study on Egypt was undertaken by VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland) in cooperation with the Egyptian Environment Authority Agency (EEAA). Both the bottom-up or engineering models and the top-down or the macroeconomic models were used. In the bottom-up approach, the economic sectors were divided into seven groups: petroleum industry, power generation, heavy industry, light industry, residential and commercial sector, transport and agriculture and domestic wastes. First, a comprehensive inventory for the year 1990 was prepared for all the GHGmore » emissions mainly, but not exclusively, from energy sources. This included CO[sub 2], CH[sub 4] and N[sub 2]O. A base scenario of economic and energy growth of Egypt for business-as-usual alternative was fixed using the results of several optimization processes undertaken earlier by the National Committee of Egypt. GHG emissions of the different sources in this base scenario were then determined using LEAP model and spread sheets.« less

Oceanic transform faults: how and why do they form? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerya, T.

2013-12-01

Oceanic transform faults at mid-ocean ridges are often considered to be the direct product of plate breakup process (cf. review by Gerya, 2012). In contrast, recent 3D thermomechanical numerical models suggest that transform faults are plate growth structures, which develop gradually on a timescale of few millions years (Gerya, 2010, 2013a,b). Four subsequent stages are predicted for the transition from rifting to spreading (Gerya, 2013b): (1) crustal rifting, (2) multiple spreading centers nucleation and propagation, (3) proto-transform faults initiation and rotation and (4) mature ridge-transform spreading. Geometry of the mature ridge-transform system is governed by geometrical requirements for simultaneous accretion and displacement of new plate material within two offset spreading centers connected by a sustaining rheologically weak transform fault. According to these requirements, the characteristic spreading-parallel orientation of oceanic transform faults is the only thermomechanically consistent steady state orientation. Comparison of modeling results with the Woodlark Basin suggests that the development of this incipient spreading region (Taylor et al., 2009) closely matches numerical predictions (Gerya, 2013b). Model reproduces well characteristic 'rounded' contours of the spreading centers as well as the presence of a remnant of the broken continental crustal bridge observed in the Woodlark basin. Similarly to the model, the Moresby (proto)transform terminates in the oceanic rather than in the continental crust. Transform margins and truncated tip of one spreading center present in the model are documented in nature. In addition, numerical experiments suggest that transform faults can develop gradually at mature linear mid-ocean ridges as the result of dynamical instability (Gerya, 2010). Boundary instability from asymmetric plate growth can spontaneously start in alternate directions along successive ridge sections; the resultant curved ridges become transform faults. Offsets along the transform faults change continuously with time by asymmetric plate growth and discontinuously by ridge jumps. The ridge instability is governed by rheological weakening of active fault structures. The instability is most efficient for slow to intermediate spreading rates, whereas ultraslow and (ultra)fast spreading rates tend to destabilize transform faults (Gerya, 2010; Püthe and Gerya, 2013) References Gerya, T. (2010) Dynamical instability produces transform faults at mid-ocean ridges. Science, 329, 1047-1050. Gerya, T. (2012) Origin and models of oceanic transform faults. Tectonophys., 522-523, 34-56 Gerya, T.V. (2013a) Three-dimensional thermomechanical modeling of oceanic spreading initiation and evolution. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors, 214, 35-52. Gerya, T.V. (2013b) Initiation of transform faults at rifted continental margins: 3D petrological-thermomechanical modeling and comparison to the Woodlark Basin. Petrology, 21, 1-10. Püthe, C., Gerya, T.V. (2013) Dependence of mid-ocean ridge morphology on spreading rate in numerical 3-D models. Gondwana Res., DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2013.04.005 Taylor, B., Goodliffe, A., Martinez, F. (2009) Initiation of transform faults at rifted continental margins. Comptes Rendus Geosci., 341, 428-438.

Geostar - Navigation location system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Donald A.

The author describes the Radiodetermination Satellite Service (RDSS). The initial phase of the RDSS provides for a unique service enabling central offices and headquarters to obtain position-location information and receive short digital messages from mobile user terminals throughout the contiguous United States, southern Canada, and northern Mexico. The system employs a spread-spectrum, CDMA modulation technique allowing multiple customers to use the system simultaneously, without preassigned coordination with fellow users. Position location is currently determined by employing an existing radio determination receiver, such as Loran-C, GPS, or Transit, in the mobile user terminal. In the early 1990s position location will be determined at a central earth station by time-differential ranging of the user terminals via two or more geostationary satellites. A brief overview of the RDSS system architecture is presented with emphasis on the user terminal and its diverse applications.

Global stability and optimal control of epidemic spreading on multiplex networks with nonlinear mutual interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Nan; Ding, Li; Liu, Yu-Jing; Hu, Ping

2018-07-01

In this paper, we consider two interacting pathogens spreading on multiplex networks. Each pathogen spreads only on its single layer, and different layers have the same individuals but different network topology. A state-dependent infectious rate is proposed to describe the nonlinear mutual interaction during the propagation of two pathogens. Then a novel epidemic spreading model incorporating treatment control strategy is established. We investigate the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points by using Dulac's criterion, Poincaré-Bendixson theorem and Lyapunov method. Furthermore, we discuss an optimal strategy to minimize the total number of the infected individuals and the cost associated with treatment control for both spreading of two pathogens. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to show the validity and efficiency of our results.

Liquid spreading under partial wetting conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Pahlavan, A. A.; Cueto-Felgueroso, L.; McKinley, G. H.; Juanes, R.

2013-12-01

Traditional mathematical descriptions of multiphase flow in porous media rely on a multiphase extension of Darcy's law, and lead to nonlinear second-order (advection-diffusion) partial differential equations for fluid saturations. Here, we study horizontal redistribution of immiscible fluids. The traditional Darcy-flow model predicts that the spreading of a finite amount of liquid in a horizontal porous medium never stops; a prediction that is not substantiated by observation. To help guide the development of new models of multiphase flow in porous media [1], we draw an analogy with the flow of thin films. The flow of thin films over flat surfaces has been the subject of much theoretical, experimental and computational research [2]. Under the lubrication approximation, the classical mathematical model for these flows takes the form of a nonlinear fourth-order PDE, where the fourth-order term models the effect of surface tension [3]. This classical model, however, effectively assumes that the film is perfectly wetting to the substrate and, therefore, does not capture the partial wetting regime. Partial wetting is responsible for stopping the spread of a liquid puddle. Here, we present experiments of (large-volume) liquid spreading over a flat horizontal substrate in the partial wetting regime, and characterize the four spreading regimes that we observe. We extend our previous theoretical work of two-phase flow in a capillary tube [4], and develop a macroscopic phase-field modeling of thin-film flows with partial wetting. Our model naturally accounts for the dynamic contact angle at the contact line, and therefore permits modeling thin-film flows without invoking a precursor film, leading to compactly-supported solutions that reproduce the spreading dynamics and the static equilibrium configuration observed in the experiments. We anticipate that this modeling approach will provide a natural mathematical framework to describe spreading and redistribution of immiscible fluids in porous media. [1] L. Cueto-Felgueroso and R. Juanes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 244504 (2008). [2] D. Bonn et al., Rev. Mod. Phys. 81, 739-805 (2009). [3] H. E. Huppert, Nature 300, 427-429 (1982). [4] L. Cueto-Felgueroso and R. Juanes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 144502 (2012).

Dynamic contact angle of water-based titanium oxide nanofluid

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

This paper presents an investigation into spreading dynamics and dynamic contact angle of TiO2-deionized water nanofluids. Two mechanisms of energy dissipation, (1) contact line friction and (2) wedge film viscosity, govern the dynamics of contact line motion. The primary stage of spreading has the contact line friction as the dominant dissipative mechanism. At the secondary stage of spreading, the wedge film viscosity is the dominant dissipative mechanism. A theoretical model based on combination of molecular kinetic theory and hydrodynamic theory which incorporates non-Newtonian viscosity of solutions is used. The model agreement with experimental data is reasonable. Complex interparticle interactions, local pinning of the contact line, and variations in solid–liquid interfacial tension are attributed to errors. PMID:23759071

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with optimal interaction radius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Hu, Ping

2018-03-01

In this paper, the optimal control problem of epidemic spreading on random surfer heterogeneous networks is considered. An epidemic spreading model is established according to the classification of individual's initial interaction radii. Then, a control strategy is proposed based on adjusting individual's interaction radii. The global stability of the disease free and endemic equilibrium of the model is investigated. We prove that an optimal solution exists for the optimal control problem and the explicit form of which is presented. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the correctness of the theoretical results. It is proved that the optimal control strategy is effective to minimize the density of infected individuals and the cost associated with the adjustment of interaction radii.

Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

2017-02-01

In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

Modeling two strains of disease via aggregate-level infectivity curves.

PubMed

Romanescu, Razvan; Deardon, Rob

2016-04-01

Well formulated models of disease spread, and efficient methods to fit them to observed data, are powerful tools for aiding the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. Our project considers the problem of the simultaneous spread of two related strains of disease in a context where spatial location is the key driver of disease spread. We start our modeling work with the individual level models (ILMs) of disease transmission, and extend these models to accommodate the competing spread of the pathogens in a two-tier hierarchical population (whose levels we refer to as 'farm' and 'animal'). The postulated interference mechanism between the two strains is a period of cross-immunity following infection. We also present a framework for speeding up the computationally intensive process of fitting the ILM to data, typically done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a Bayesian framework, by turning the inference into a two-stage process. First, we approximate the number of animals infected on a farm over time by infectivity curves. These curves are fit to data sampled from farms, using maximum likelihood estimation, then, conditional on the fitted curves, Bayesian MCMC inference proceeds for the remaining parameters. Finally, we use posterior predictive distributions of salient epidemic summary statistics, in order to assess the model fitted.

Dynamical roguing model for controlling the spread of tungro virus via Nephotettix Virescens in a rice field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blas, Nikki; David, Guido

2017-10-01

Rice tungro disease is described as a cancer due to its major impact on the livelihood of farmers and the difficulty of controlling it. Tungro is a semi-persistent virus transmitted by green leafhoppers called Nephotettix Virescens. In this paper, we presented a compartmental plant-vector model of the Nephotettix Virescens - rice plant interaction based on a system of ordinary differential equations to simulate the effects of roguing in controlling the spread of Tungro virus in a model rice field of susceptible rice variety (Taichung Native 1).

Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2018-02-01

End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

Agent-Based vs. Equation-based Epidemiological Models:A Model Selection Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Nutaro, James J

This paper is motivated by the need to design model validation strategies for epidemiological disease-spread models. We consider both agent-based and equation-based models of pandemic disease spread and study the nuances and complexities one has to consider from the perspective of model validation. For this purpose, we instantiate an equation based model and an agent based model of the 1918 Spanish flu and we leverage data published in the literature for our case- study. We present our observations from the perspective of each implementation and discuss the application of model-selection criteria to compare the risk in choosing one modeling paradigmmore » to another. We conclude with a discussion of our experience and document future ideas for a model validation framework.« less

An Exactly Solvable Model for the Spread of Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mickens, Ronald E.

2012-01-01

We present a new SIR epidemiological model whose exact analytical solution can be calculated. In this model, unlike previous models, the infective population becomes zero at a finite time. Remarkably, these results can be derived from only an elementary knowledge of differential equations.

Local-world and cluster-growing weighted networks with controllable clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chun-Xia; Tang, Min-Xuan; Tang, Hai-Qiang; Deng, Qiang-Qiang

2014-12-01

We constructed an improved weighted network model by introducing local-world selection mechanism and triangle coupling mechanism based on the traditional BBV model. The model gives power-law distributions of degree, strength and edge weight and presents the linear relationship both between the degree and strength and between the degree and the clustering coefficient. Particularly, the model is equipped with an ability to accelerate the speed increase of strength exceeding that of degree. Besides, the model is more sound and efficient in tuning clustering coefficient than the original BBV model. Finally, based on our improved model, we analyze the virus spread process and find that reducing the size of local-world has a great inhibited effect on virus spread.

Tropospheric ozone (TOR) trend over three major inland Indian cities: Delhi, Hyderabad and Bangalore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, Pavan S.; Ghude, Sachin D.; Bortoli, D.

2010-10-01

An analysis of tropospheric column ozone using the NASA Langley TOR data during 1979-2005 has been done to investigate the trend over major Indian cities Delhi, Hyderabad and Bangalore. India was under social democratic-based policies before 1990s. Economic Liberalization began in nineties which lead to a significant growth in industrial, energy and transport sectors in major cities. Our analysis shows that there is a systematic increase in the number of months with higher tropospheric ozone values after 1990. A comparison of TOR climatology before and after 1990 over these cities shows evidence of increase in the tropospheric ozone after 1990. Trend obtained from the model shows significant change during monsoon over Delhi and during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon over Hyderabad and Bangalore. The present analysis using TOR technique demonstrates the TOR potential to detect changes in tropospheric ozone over large cities which are impacted by large anthropogenic pollution.

Africanized bees extend their distribution in California.

PubMed

Lin, Wei; McBroome, Jakob; Rehman, Mahwish; Johnson, Brian R

2018-01-01

Africanized honey bees (Apis mellifera) arrived in the western hemisphere in the 1950s and quickly spread north reaching California in the 1990s. These bees are highly defensive and somewhat more difficult to manage for commercial purposes than the European honey bees traditionally kept. The arrival of these bees and their potentially replacing European bees over much of the state is thus of great concern. After a 25 year period of little systematic sampling, a recent small scale study found Africanized honey bees in the Bay Area of California, far north of their last recorded distribution. The purpose of the present study was to expand this study by conducting more intensive sampling of bees from across northern California. We found Africanized honey bees as far north as Napa and Sacramento. We also found Africanized bees in all counties south of these counties. Africanized honey bees were particularly abundant in parts of the central valley and Monterey. This work suggests the northern spread of Africanized honey bees may not have stopped. They may still be moving north at a slow rate, although due to the long gaps in sampling it is currently impossible to tell for certain. Future work should routinely monitor the distribution of these bees to distinguish between these two possibilities.

29 CFR 1990.151 - Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 29 Labor 9 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act. 1990... OCCUPATIONAL CARCINOGENS Model Standards § 1990.151 Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act... an action level as a limitation on requirements for periodic monitoring (para. (e)(3)), medical...

29 CFR 1990.151 - Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 29 Labor 9 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act. 1990... OCCUPATIONAL CARCINOGENS Model Standards § 1990.151 Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act. Occupational Exposure to ________ Permanent Standard (insert section number of standard) (a) Scope and...

29 CFR 1990.151 - Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 29 Labor 9 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act. 1990... OCCUPATIONAL CARCINOGENS Model Standards § 1990.151 Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act. Occupational Exposure to ________ Permanent Standard (insert section number of standard) (a) Scope and...

29 CFR 1990.151 - Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 29 Labor 9 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act. 1990... OCCUPATIONAL CARCINOGENS Model Standards § 1990.151 Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act. Occupational Exposure to ________ Permanent Standard (insert section number of standard) (a) Scope and...

Modeling the release, spreading, and burning of LNG, LPG, and gasoline on water.

PubMed

Johnson, David W; Cornwell, John B

2007-02-20

Current interest in the shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has renewed the debate about the safety of shipping large volumes of flammable fuels. The size of a spreading pool following a release of LNG from an LNG tank ship has been the subject of numerous papers and studies dating back to the mid-1970s. Several papers have presented idealized views of how the LNG would be released and spread across a quiescent water surface. There is a considerable amount of publicly available material describing these idealized releases, but little discussion of how other flammable fuels would behave if released from similar sized ships. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the models currently available from the United States Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) can be used to simulate the release, spreading, vaporization, and pool fire impacts for materials other than LNG, and if so, identify which material-specific parameters are required. The review of the basic equations and principles in FERC's LNG release, spreading, and burning models did not reveal a critical fault that would prevent their use in evaluating the consequences of other flammable fluid releases. With the correct physical data, the models can be used with the same level of confidence for materials such as LPG and gasoline as they are for LNG.

A semi-empirical model for the estimation of maximum horizontal displacement due to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faris, Allison T.; Seed, Raymond B.; Kayen, Robert E.; Wu, Jiaer

2006-01-01

During the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, liquefaction-induced lateral spreading and resultant ground displacements damaged bridges, buried utilities, and lifelines, conventional structures, and other developed works. This paper presents an improved engineering tool for the prediction of maximum displacement due to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. A semi-empirical approach is employed, combining mechanistic understanding and data from laboratory testing with data and lessons from full-scale earthquake field case histories. The principle of strain potential index, based primary on correlation of cyclic simple shear laboratory testing results with in-situ Standard Penetration Test (SPT) results, is used as an index to characterized the deformation potential of soils after they liquefy. A Bayesian probabilistic approach is adopted for development of the final predictive model, in order to take fullest advantage of the data available and to deal with the inherent uncertainties intrinstiic to the back-analyses of field case histories. A case history from the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake is utilized to demonstrate the ability of the resultant semi-empirical model to estimate maximum horizontal displacement due to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading.

Numerical modeling of mosquito population dynamics of Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Yamashita, William M S; Das, Shyam S; Chapiro, Grigori

2018-04-16

The global incidences of dengue virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. It is predominantly spread by Aedes aegypti in the tropical and sub-tropical countries in the world. Understanding these dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. For this reason, a new model has been proposed to investigate the population dynamics of mosquitoes in a city. The present paper discusses the numerical modeling of population dynamics of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in an urban neighborhood of a city using the finite volume method. The model describes how populations spread through the city assisted by the wind. This model allows incorporating external factors (wind and chemical insecticides) and topography data (streets, building blocks, parks, forests and beach). The proposed model has been successfully tested in examples involving two Brazilian cities (City center, Juiz de Fora and Copacabana Beach, Rio de Janeiro). Invasion phenomena of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been observed in each of the simulations. It was observed that, inside the blocks, the growth of the population for both winged and aquatic phase causes an infestation of Ae. aegypti in a short time. Within the blocks the mosquito population was concentrated and diffused slowly. In the streets, there was a long-distance spread, which was influenced by wind and diffusion with a low concentration of mosquito population. The model was also tested taking into account chemical insecticides spread in two different configurations. It has been observed that the insecticides have a significant effect on the mosquito population for both winged and aquatic phases when the chemical insecticides spread more uniformly along all the streets in a neighborhood of a city. The presented methodology can be employed to evaluate and to understand the epidemic risks in a specific region of the city. Moreover the model allows an increase in efficiency of the existing mosquito population control techniques and to theoretically test new methods before involving the human population.

Longitudinal Loading and Nutrient Compositional Gradients in an Agriculturally Managed Watershed in West-Central Wisconsin

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-09-01

i.e., fertilizer and manure subsidies ). Nitrogen. Similar to total P, flow-weighted mean total N concentrations were not significantly different at...often used as a soil nutrient subsidy on corn and is also spread on hayfields after cutting, partly as a means of reducing manure surplus...James, W. F., Kennedy, R. H., and Gaugush, R F. (1990). “ Effects of large-scale metalimnetic migration events of phosphorus dynamics in a north

Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

2018-04-01

Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

A Methodology for Long-Term Forecasts of Air Force Pilot Retention Rates: A Management Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

B.A. Major, USAF September, 1990 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Preface This study culminated in the production of several models ...providing the models would be of little value if they were not presented in some sort of management context. I therefore presented the modeling effort... models may be of some use. If you have any questions, you can find me on the golf course. Bruce A. Guzowski ii Table of Contents Page Preface

Public health works: blood donation in urban China.

PubMed

Adams, Vincanne; Erwin, Kathleen; Le, Phuoc V

2009-02-01

Recent shifts in the global health infrastructure warrant consideration of the value and effectiveness of national public health campaigns. These shifts include the globalization of pharmaceutical research, the rise of NGO-funded health interventions, and the rise of biosecurity models of international health. We argue that although these trends have arisen as worthwhile responses to actual health needs, it is important to remember the key role that public health campaigns can play in the promotion of national health, especially in developing nations. Focusing on an example set by China in response to a public health crisis surrounding the national need for a clean and adequate blood supply and the inadvertent spread of HIV by way of blood donation in the early 1990's, we argue that there is an important role for strong national public health programs. We also identify the key factors that enabled China's response to this burgeoning epidemic to be, in the end, largely successful.

Deciphering the evolution of herbicide resistance in weeds.

PubMed

Délye, Christophe; Jasieniuk, Marie; Le Corre, Valérie

2013-11-01

Resistance to herbicides in arable weeds is increasing rapidly worldwide and threatening global food security. Resistance has now been reported to all major herbicide modes of action despite the development of resistance management strategies in the 1990s. We review here recent advances in understanding the genetic bases and evolutionary drivers of herbicide resistance that highlight the complex nature of selection for this adaptive trait. Whereas early studied cases of resistance were highly herbicide-specific and largely under monogenic control, cases of greatest concern today generally involve resistance to multiple modes of action, are under polygenic control, and are derived from pre-existing stress response pathways. Although 'omics' approaches should enable unraveling the genetic bases of complex resistances, the appearance, selection, and spread of herbicide resistance in weed populations can only be fully elucidated by focusing on evolutionary dynamics and implementing integrative modeling efforts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of viscous dissipation in nanodroplet impact and spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin-Hao; Zhang, Xiang-Xiong; Chen, Min

2015-05-01

The developments in nanocoating and nanospray technology have resulted in the increasing importance of the impact of micro-/nanoscale liquid droplets on solid surface. In this paper, the impact of a nanodroplet on a flat solid surface is examined using molecular dynamics simulations. The impact velocity ranges from 58 m/s to 1044 m/s, in accordance with the Weber number ranging from 0.62 to 200.02 and the Reynolds number ranging from 0.89 to 16.14. The obtained maximum spreading factors are compared with previous models in the literature. The predicted results from the previous models largely deviate from our simulation results, with mean relative errors up to 58.12%. The estimated viscous dissipation is refined to present a modified theoretical model, which reduces the mean relative error to 15.12% in predicting the maximum spreading factor for cases of nanodroplet impact.

Rethinking Funding Strategies: Integrated Planning and Resource Development for the Small Two-Year College of 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bender, Louis; Daniel, David

1986-01-01

Presents management models showing the evolution of public expectancy as reflected in legislated policy: the petty cash model, the public utility model, and the business model. Discusses the John A. Walker Community Center at Wilkes Community College (North Carolina) as an example of the integrated planning/resource development (i.e., business)…

True and fake information spreading over the Facebook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dong; Chow, Tommy W. S.; Zhong, Lu; Tian, Zhaoyang; Zhang, Qingpeng; Chen, Guanrong

2018-09-01

Social networks have involved more and more users who search for and share information extensively and frequently. Tremendous evidence in Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and Google+ alike shows that such social networks are the major information sources as well as the most effective platforms for information transmission and exchange. The dynamic propagation of various information may gradually disseminate, drastically increase, strongly compete with each other, or slowly decrease. These observations had led to the present study of the spreading process of true and fake information over social networks, particularly the Facebook. Specifically, in this paper the topological structure of two huge-scale Facebook network datasets are investigated regarding their statistical properties. Based on that, an information model for simulating the true and fake information spreading over the Facebook is established. Through controlling the spreading parameters in extensive large-scale simulations, it is found that the final density of stiflers increases with the growth of the spreading rate, while it would decline with the increase of the removal rate. Moreover, it is found that the spreading process of the true-fake information is closely related to the node degrees on the network. Hub-individuals with high degrees have large probabilities to learn hidden information and then spread it. Interestingly, it is found that the spreading rate of the true information but not of the fake information has a great effect on the information spreading process, reflecting the human nature in believing and spreading truths in social activities. The new findings validate the proposed model to be capable of characterizing the dynamic evolution of true and fake information over the Facebook, useful and informative for future social science studies.

Uneven onset and pace of ice-dynamical imbalance in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, Hannes; Gilbert, Lin; Cornford, Stephen L.; Payne, Antony; Hogg, Anna; Muir, Alan; Shepherd, Andrew

2017-01-01

We combine measurements acquired by five satellite altimeter missions to obtain an uninterrupted record of ice sheet elevation change over the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, since 1992. Using these data, we examine the onset of surface lowering arising through ice-dynamical imbalance, and the pace at which it has propagated inland, by tracking elevation changes along glacier flow lines. Surface lowering has spread slowest (<6 km/yr) along the Pope, Smith, and Kohler (PSK) Glaciers, due to their small extent. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is characterized by a continuous inland spreading of surface lowering, notably fast at rates of 13 to 15 km/yr along tributaries draining the southeastern lobe, possibly due to basal conditions or tributary geometry. Surface lowering on Thwaites Glacier (THG) has been episodic and has spread inland fastest (10 to 12 km/yr) along its central flow lines. The current episodes of surface lowering started approximately 10 years before the first measurements on PSK, around 1990 on PIG, and around 2000 on THG. Ice-dynamical imbalance across the sector has therefore been uneven during the satellite record.

Natural resources and the spread of HIV/AIDS: Curse or blessing?

PubMed

Sterck, Olivier

2016-02-01

This paper answers two questions: "What impact have natural resources had on the spread of the HIV epidemic so far?" and "What role can natural resource rents play in order to finance the long-run response to HIV/AIDS?" Using a panel dataset covering 137 countries from 1990 until 2008, de Soysa and Gizelis (2013) provided evidence in Social Science & Medicine that oil-rich countries are more deeply affected by the HIV and TB epidemics. They concluded that government of resource-rich countries failed to implement effective public policies for dealing with the epidemics. In this paper, I show that their results are (1) not robust, (2) based on an inappropriate choice of dependent variable and (3) spurious because series are non-stationary. After correcting for these issues, I find no robust relationship between resource rents and the spread of HIV and TB. The paper concludes by emphasizing the potential of natural resources rents for financing the long-term liability brought about by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cost-benefit analysis of preventative management for zebra and quagga mussels in the Colorado-Big Thompson System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Catherine M.

2010-01-01

Zebra and quagga mussels are fresh water invaders that have the potential to cause severe ecological and economic damage. It is estimated that mussels cause $1 billion dollars per year in damages to water infrastructure and industries in the United States (Pimentel et al., 2004). Following their introduction to the Great Lakes in the late 1980s, mussels spread rapidly throughout the Mississippi River Basin and the Eastern U.S. The mussel invasion in the West is young. Mussels were first identified in Nevada in 2007, and have since been identified in California, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Texas. Western water systems are very different from those found in the East. The rapid spread of mussels through the eastern system was facilitated by connected and navigable waterways. Western water systems are less connected and are characterized by man-made reservoirs and canals. The main vector of spread for mussels in the West is overland on recreational boats (Bossenbroek et al., 2001). In response to the invasion, many western water managers have implemented preventative management programs to slow the overland spread of mussels on recreational boats. In Colorado, the Colorado Department of Wildlife (CDOW) has implemented a mandatory boat inspection program that requires all trailered boats to be inspected before launching in any Colorado water body. The objective of this study is to analyze the costs and benefits of the CDOW boat inspection program in Colorado, and to identify variables that affect the net benefits of preventative management. Predicting the potential economic benefits of slowing the spread of mussels requires integrating information about mussel dispersal potential with estimates of control costs (Keller et al., 2009). Uncertainty surrounding the probabilities of establishment, the timing of invasions, and the damage costs associated with an invasion make a simulation model an excellent tool for addressing "what if" scenarios and shedding light on the net benefits of preventative management strategies. This study builds a bioeconomic simulation model to predict and compare the expected economic costs of the CDOW boat inspection program ot the benefits of reduced expected control costs to water conveyance systems, hydropower generation stations, and minicipal water treatment facilities. The model is based on a case study water delivery and storage system, the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The Colorado-Big Thomspon system is an excellent example of water systems in the Rocky Mountain West. The system is nearly entirely man-made, with all of its reservoirs and delivery points connected via pipelines, tunnels, and canals. The structures and hydropower systems of the Colorado-Big Thompson system are common to other western storage and delivery systems, making the methods and insight developed from this case study transferal to other western systems. The model developed in this study contributes to the bioeconomic literature in several ways. Foremost, the model predicts the spread of dreissena mussels and associated damage costs for a connected water system in the Rocky Mountain West. Very few zebra mussel studies have focused on western water systems. Another distinguishing factor is the simultaneous consideration of spread from propagules introduced by boats and by flows. Most zebra mussel dispersal models consider boater movement patterns combined with limnological characteristics as predictors of spread. A separate set of studies have addressed mussel spread via downstream flows. To the author's knowledge, this is the first study that builds a zebra mussel spread model that specifically accounts for propagule pressure from boat introductions and from downstream flow introductions. By modeling an entire connected system, the study highlights how the spatial layout of a system, and the risk of invasion within a system affect the benefits of preventative management. This report is presented in five chapters. The first chapter provides background information including a history of the zebra mussel invasion in the U.S. and in the West, and details about the Colorado preventative management program and the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The chapter also includes a literature review of mussel dispersal models and economic studies that address control costs and preventative management for aquatic invasive species. Chapter 2 presents the methodological approach used to analyze the costs and benefits of preventative management in the Colorado-Big Thompson system and provides details of the bioeconomic simulation model used to predict invasion patterns and the net benefits of preventative management. Results of the analysis and sensitivity testing of model parameters are presented in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 provides a summary of the analysis and conclusions. A discussion of the limitations of the model and areas for future research is presented in Chapter 5.

Modeling the effects of vegetation heterogeneity on wildland fire behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Sieg, C.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

Vegetation structure and densities are known to drive fire-spread rate and burn severity. Many fire-spread models incorporate an average, homogenous fuel density in the model domain to drive fire behavior. However, vegetation communities are rarely homogenous and instead present significant heterogeneous structure and fuel densities in the fires path. This results in observed patches of varied burn severities and mosaics of disturbed conditions that affect ecological recovery and hydrologic response. Consequently, to understand the interactions of fire and ecosystem functions, representations of spatially heterogeneous conditions need to be incorporated into fire models. Mechanistic models of fire disturbance offer insight into how fuel load characterization and distribution result in varied fire behavior. Here we use a physically-based 3D combustion model—FIRETEC—that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species to compare fire behavior on homogenous representations to a heterogeneous vegetation distribution. Results demonstrate the impact vegetation heterogeneity has on the spread rate, intensity, and extent of simulated wildfires thus providing valuable insight in predicted wildland fire evolution and enhanced ability to estimate wildland fire inputs into regional and global climate models.

Cholera: current epidemiology.

PubMed

Crowcroft, N S

1994-12-09

Cholera remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Its epidemiology has changed in the 1990s, with the spread of the seventh pandemic to the western hemisphere and the emergence of a new serogroup, Vibrio cholerae O139. The spread of cholera may be rapid and unpredictable because of aeroplane travel, international shipping, and the migration of people due to war or political unrest. Increasing amounts of largely untreated faeces from growing human populations favour cholera's survival. Most of the world has inadequate sanitation, and future prospects are undermined by the impact of international debt on ailing economies. Furthermore, because cholera is difficult to eradicate from water it is likely to remain a serious threat to public health for some time. Progress is being made in the development of oral vaccines against V. cholerae O1 and serogroup O139.

Bacillus subtilis spreads by surfing on waves of surfactant

PubMed Central

Angelini, Thomas E.; Roper, Marcus; Kolter, Roberto; Weitz, David A.; Brenner, Michael P.

2009-01-01

The bacterium Bacillus subtilis produces the molecule surfactin, which is known to enhance the spreading of multicellular colonies on nutrient substrates by lowering the surface tension of the surrounding fluid, and to aid in the formation of aerial structures. Here we present experiments and a mathematical model that demonstrate how the differential accumulation rates induced by the geometry of the bacterial film give rise to surfactant waves. The spreading flux increases with increasing biofilm viscosity. Community associations are known to protect bacterial populations from environmental challenges such as predation, heat, or chemical stresses, and enable digestion of a broader range of nutritive sources. This study provides evidence of enhanced dispersal through cooperative motility, and points to nonintuitive methods for controlling the spread of biofilms. PMID:19826092

Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

2018-05-01

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

Heterogeneity in multiple transmission pathways: modelling the spread of cholera and other waterborne disease in networks with a common water source.

PubMed

Robertson, Suzanne L; Eisenberg, Marisa C; Tien, Joseph H

2013-01-01

Many factors influencing disease transmission vary throughout and across populations. For diseases spread through multiple transmission pathways, sources of variation may affect each transmission pathway differently. In this paper we consider a disease that can be spread via direct and indirect transmission, such as the waterborne disease cholera. Specifically, we consider a system of multiple patches with direct transmission occurring entirely within patch and indirect transmission via a single shared water source. We investigate the effect of heterogeneity in dual transmission pathways on the spread of the disease. We first present a 2-patch model for which we examine the effect of variation in each pathway separately and propose a measure of heterogeneity that incorporates both transmission mechanisms and is predictive of R(0). We also explore how heterogeneity affects the final outbreak size and the efficacy of intervention measures. We conclude by extending several results to a more general n-patch setting.

Epidemic spreading on activity-driven networks with attractiveness.

PubMed

Pozzana, Iacopo; Sun, Kaiyuan; Perra, Nicola

2017-10-01

We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalization of the activity-driven modeling framework. In this model of time-varying networks, each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The first describes the propensity to form connections, while the second defines the propensity to attract them. We derive analytically the epidemic threshold considering the time scale driving the evolution of contacts and the contagion as comparable. The solutions are general and hold for any joint distribution of activity and attractiveness. The theoretical picture is confirmed via large-scale numerical simulations performed considering heterogeneous distributions and different correlations between the two variables. We find that heterogeneous distributions of attractiveness alter the contagion process. In particular, in the case of uncorrelated and positive correlations between the two variables, heterogeneous attractiveness facilitates the spreading. On the contrary, negative correlations between activity and attractiveness hamper the spreading. The results presented contribute to the understanding of the dynamical properties of time-varying networks and their effects on contagion phenomena unfolding on their fabric.

Quantifying parametric uncertainty in the Rothermel model

Treesearch

S. Goodrick

2008-01-01

The purpose of the present work is to quantify parametric uncertainty in the Rothermel wildland fire spreadmodel (implemented in software such as fire spread models in the United States. This model consists of a non-linear system of equations that relates environmentalvariables (input parameter groups...

Modeling the state dependent impulse control for computer virus propagation under media coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xiyin; Pei, Yongzhen; Lv, Yunfei

2018-02-01

A state dependent impulsive control model is proposed to model the spread of computer virus incorporating media coverage. By the successor function, the sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of order-1 periodic solution are presented first. Secondly, for two classes of periodic solutions, the geometric property of successor function and the analogue of the Poincaré criterion are employed to obtain the stability results. These results show that the number of the infective computers is under the threshold all the time. Finally, the theoretic and numerical analysis show that media coverage can delay the spread of computer virus.

A new method for the analysis of fire spread modeling errors

Treesearch

Francis M. Fujioka

2002-01-01

Fire spread models have a long history, and their use will continue to grow as they evolve from a research tool to an operational tool. This paper describes a new method to analyse two-dimensional fire spread modeling errors, particularly to quantify the uncertainties of fire spread predictions. Measures of error are defined from the respective spread distances of...

Effects of rewiring strategies on information spreading in complex dynamic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ally, Abdulla F.; Zhang, Ning

2018-04-01

Recent advances in networks and communication services have attracted much interest to understand information spreading in social networks. Consequently, numerous studies have been devoted to provide effective and accurate models for mimicking information spreading. However, knowledge on how to spread information faster and more widely remains a contentious issue. Yet, most existing works are based on static networks which limit the reality of dynamism of entities that participate in information spreading. Using the SIR epidemic model, this study explores and compares effects of two rewiring models (Fermi-Dirac and Linear functions) on information spreading in scale free and small world networks. Our results show that for all the rewiring strategies, the spreading influence replenishes with time but stabilizes in a steady state at later time-steps. This means that information spreading takes-off during the initial spreading steps, after which the spreading prevalence settles toward its equilibrium, with majority of the population having recovered and thus, no longer affecting the spreading. Meanwhile, rewiring strategy based on Fermi-Dirac distribution function in one way or another impedes the spreading process, however, the structure of the networks mimic the spreading, even with a low spreading rate. The worst case can be when the spreading rate is extremely small. The results emphasize that despite a big role of such networks in mimicking the spreading, the role of the parameters cannot be simply ignored. Apparently, the probability of giant degree neighbors being informed grows much faster with the rewiring strategy of linear function compared to that of Fermi-Dirac distribution function. Clearly, rewiring model based on linear function generates the fastest spreading across the networks. Therefore, if we are interested in speeding up the spreading process in stochastic modeling, linear function may play a pivotal role.

HF band filter bank multi-carrier spread spectrum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laraway, Stephen Andrew; Moradi, Hussein; Farhang-Boroujeny, Behrouz

Abstract—This paper describes modifications to the filter bank multicarrier spread spectrum (FB-MC-SS) system, that was presented in [1] and [2], to enable transmission of this waveform in the HF skywave channel. FB-MC-SS is well suited for the HF channel because it performs well in channels with frequency selective fading and interference. This paper describes new algorithms for packet detection, timing recovery and equalization that are suitable for the HF channel. Also, an algorithm for optimizing the peak to average power ratio (PAPR) of the FBMC- SS waveform is presented. Application of this algorithm results in a waveform with low PAPR.more » Simulation results using a wide band HF channel model demonstrate the robustness of this system over a wide range of delay and Doppler spreads.« less

Role of Greenland meltwater in the changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Myers, Paul; Platov, Gennady; Bamber, Jonathan; Curry, Beth; Somavilla, Raquel

2016-04-01

Observational data show that the Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system has been changing over the last two decades. Arctic change is manifest in the atypical behavior of the climate indices in the 21st century. Before the 2000s, these indices characterized the quasi-decadal variability of the Arctic climate related to different circulation regimes. Between 1948 and 1996, the Arctic atmospheric circulation alternated between anticyclonic circulation regimes and cyclonic circulation regimes with a period of 10-15 years. Since 1997, however, the Arctic has been dominated by an anticyclonic regime. Previous studies indicate that in the 20th century, freshwater and heat exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the sub-Arctic seas were self-regulated and their interactions were realized via quasi-decadal climate oscillations. What physical processes in the Arctic Ocean - sub-Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system are responsible for the observed changes in Arctic climate variability? The presented work is motivated by our hypothesis that in the 21st century, these quasi-decadal oscillations have been interrupted as a result of an additional freshwater source associated with Greenland Ice Sheet melt. Accelerating since the early 1990s, the Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss exerts a significant impact on thermohaline processes in the sub-Arctic seas. Surplus Greenland freshwater, the amount of which is about a third of the freshwater volume fluxed into the region during the 1970s Great Salinity Anomaly event, can spread and accumulate in the sub-Arctic seas influencing convective processes there. It is not clear, however, whether Greenland freshwater can propagate into the interior convective regions in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas. In order to investigate the fate and pathways of Greenland freshwater in the sub-Arctic seas and to determine how and at what rate Greenland freshwater propagates into the convective regions, several numerical experiments using a passive tracer to track propagation of Greenland freshwater have been conducted as a part of the Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis effort. The presentation discusses the role of Greenland meltwater in the Arctic environment and how this can explain observed cessation of the quasi-decadal Arctic variability. The rate and pathways of Greenland meltwater in the sub-Arctic seas derived from the coordinated model experiments are analyzed. The presented study discusses a possible scenario of the Arctic in the future. It is argued that Greenland meltwater being accumulated in the sub-Arctic seas since the 1990s can trigger a negative feedback mechanism that may impede or even reverse processes of Arctic warming observed in the 21st century.

AIDS Epidemiological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Fouad Lazhar

2010-11-01

The aim of this paper is to present mathematical modelling of the spread of infection in the context of the transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). These models are based in part on the models suggested in the field of th AIDS mathematical modelling as reported by ISHAM [6].

Clustering determines the dynamics of complex contagions in multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Yong; Arenas, Alex; Yaǧan, Osman

2017-01-01

We present the mathematical analysis of generalized complex contagions in a class of clustered multiplex networks. The model is intended to understand spread of influence, or any other spreading process implying a threshold dynamics, in setups of interconnected networks with significant clustering. The contagion is assumed to be general enough to account for a content-dependent linear threshold model, where each link type has a different weight (for spreading influence) that may depend on the content (e.g., product, rumor, political view) that is being spread. Using the generating functions formalism, we determine the conditions, probability, and expected size of the emergent global cascades. This analysis provides a generalization of previous approaches and is especially useful in problems related to spreading and percolation. The results present nontrivial dependencies between the clustering coefficient of the networks and its average degree. In particular, several phase transitions are shown to occur depending on these descriptors. Generally speaking, our findings reveal that increasing clustering decreases the probability of having global cascades and their size, however, this tendency changes with the average degree. There exists a certain average degree from which on clustering favors the probability and size of the contagion. By comparing the dynamics of complex contagions over multiplex networks and their monoplex projections, we demonstrate that ignoring link types and aggregating network layers may lead to inaccurate conclusions about contagion dynamics, particularly when the correlation of degrees between layers is high.

Examination of Wildland Fire Spread at Small Scales Using Direct Numerical Simulations and High-Speed Laser Diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimer, N. T.; Mackoweicki, A. S.; Poludnenko, A. Y.; Hoffman, C.; Daily, J. W.; Rieker, G. B.; Hamlington, P.

2017-12-01

Results are presented from a joint computational and experimental research effort focused on understanding and characterizing wildland fire spread at small scales (roughly 1m-1mm) using direct numerical simulations (DNS) with chemical kinetics mechanisms that have been calibrated using data from high-speed laser diagnostics. The simulations are intended to directly resolve, with high physical accuracy, all small-scale fluid dynamic and chemical processes relevant to wildland fire spread. The high fidelity of the simulations is enabled by the calibration and validation of DNS sub-models using data from high-speed laser diagnostics. These diagnostics have the capability to measure temperature and chemical species concentrations, and are used here to characterize evaporation and pyrolysis processes in wildland fuels subjected to an external radiation source. The chemical kinetics code CHEMKIN-PRO is used to study and reduce complex reaction mechanisms for water removal, pyrolysis, and gas phase combustion during solid biomass burning. Simulations are then presented for a gaseous pool fire coupled with the resulting multi-step chemical reaction mechanisms, and the results are connected to the fundamental structure and spread of wildland fires. It is anticipated that the combined computational and experimental approach of this research effort will provide unprecedented access to information about chemical species, temperature, and turbulence during the entire pyrolysis, evaporation, ignition, and combustion process, thereby permitting more complete understanding of the physics that must be represented by coarse-scale numerical models of wildland fire spread.

No longer just a pretty face: fashion magazines' depictions of ideal female beauty from 1959 to 1999.

PubMed

Sypeck, Mia Foley; Gray, James J; Ahrens, Anthony H

2004-11-01

The print media's depiction of the ideal of feminine beauty as presented to American women was examined for the years 1959-1999. Trends were investigated through an analysis of cover models appearing on the four most popular American fashion magazines. Body size for fashion models decreased significantly during the 1980s and 1990s. There was also a dramatic increase in the frequency with which the media depicted the entire bodies of the models from the 1960s to the 1990s. Both the increasingly thin images and the striking increase in full-body portrayals suggest an increase in the value placed by American society on a thin ideal for women, a change that is concurrent with the increase in disturbed eating patterns among American women.

Proceedings of the Annual Symposium on Frequency Control (44th) Held in Baltimore, Maryland on 23-25 May 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

Miniature Crystal Oscillator Second, manufacturability improvements in order to (TMXO), is a very small, very low power , high stability, reduce...gives no velocity selection or dispersion power changes of only 1 dB. results in a very broad velocity spread in the atomic beam and a comparatively high ...vacuum envelope. The to servo such things as microwave power and C-field, which imaging nature of this system provides high selectivity have always been

Nuclear Coexistence: Rethinking U.S. Policy to Promote Stability in an Era of Proliferation

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-01

The Spread of Nuclear Weapons 1989 -90 (Boulder: Westview Press, 1990). 22. See William C. Martel and Steven E. Miller, "Controlling Borders and Nuclear...Security, Fall 1989 , Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 140-41, for J. Robert Oppenheimer’s concerns about the dangers of the develop- ment of thermonuclear weapons. 4...Paradox of Technology," International Security, Vol. 14, No. 2 (Fall 1989 ), pp. 198-202. 6. Some argue that the U.S. strategy has relatively little

A convective forecast experiment of global tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltice, Nicolas; Giering, Ralf

2016-04-01

Modeling jointly the deep convective motions in the mantle and the deformation of the lithosphere in a self-consistent way is a long-standing quest, for which significant advances have been made in the late 1990's. The complexities used in lithospheric models are making their way into the models of mantle convection (density variations, pseudo-plasticity, elasticity, free surface), hence global models of mantle motions can now display tectonics at their surface, evolving self-consistantly and showing some of the most important properties of plate tectonics on Earth (boundaries, types of boundaries, plate sizes, seafloor spreading properties, continental drift). The goal of this work is to experiment the forecasting power of such convection models with plate-like behavior, being here StagYY (Tackley, 2008). We generate initial conditions for a 3D spherical model in the past (50Ma and younger), using models with imposed plate velocities from 200Ma. By doing this, we introduce errors in the initial conditions that propagate afterwards. From these initial conditions, we run the convection models free, without imposing any sort of motion, letting the self-organization take place. We compare the forecast to the present-day plate velocities and plate boundaries. To investigate the optimal parameterization, and also have a flavor of the sensitivity of the results to rheological parameters, we compute the derivatives of the misfit of the surface velocities relative to the yield stress, the magnitude of the viscosity jump at 660km and the properties of a weak crust. These derivates are computed thanks to the tangent linear model of StagYY, that is built through the automatic differentiation software TAF (Giering and Kaminski, 2003). References Tackley, P. J., Modeling compressible mantle convection with large viscosity contrasts in a three-dimensional spherical shell using the yin-yang grid, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 171, 7-18 (2008). Giering, R., Kaminski, T., Applying TAF to generate efficient derivative code of Fortran 77-95 programs, PAMM 2, 54-57 (2003).

Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

PubMed

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

Travel Demand Model Development and Application Guidelines (Rev.)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-06-01

There is a new challenge confronting state and regional agencies -- the : selection and development of appropriate analysis tools for application to the : planning problems presented by the 1990 Federal Clear Air Act Amendments (CAAA), : the 1991 Fed...

Nonlinear diffusion and viral spread through the leaf of a plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Maureen P.; Waterhouse, Peter M.; Munoz-Lopez, María Jesús; Anderssen, Robert S.

2016-10-01

The spread of a virus through the leaf of a plant is both spatially and temporally causal in that the present status depends on the past and the spatial spread is compactly supported and progresses outwards. Such spatial spread is known to occur for certain nonlinear diffusion processes. The first compactly supported solution for nonlinear diffusion equations appears to be that of Pattle published in 1959. In that paper, no explanation is given as to how the solution was derived. Here, we show how the solution can be derived using Lie symmetry analysis. This lays a foundation for exploring the behavior of other choices for nonlinear diffusion and exploring the addition of reaction terms which do not eliminate the compactly supported structure. The implications associated with using the reaction-diffusion equation to model the spatial-temporal spread of a virus through the leaf of a plant are discussed.

Analysis of geomagnetic secular variation during 1980-1985 and 1985- 1990, and geomagnetic models proposed for the 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peddie, N.W.

1992-01-01

The secular variation of the main geomagnetic field during the periods 1980-1985 and 1985-1990 was analyzed in terms of spherical harmonics up to the eighth degree and order. Data from worldwide magnetic observatories and the Navy's Project MAGNET aerial surveys were used. The resulting pair of secular-variation models was used to update the Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field (DGRF) model for 1980, resulting in new mainfield models for 1985.0 and 1990.0. These, along with the secular-variation model for 1985-1990, were proposed for the 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). -Author

Arms control and the 1990 NPT review conference: Workshop summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilat, J.F.

1990-07-01

The Center for National Security Studies of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Department of Energy's Office of Arms Control held a workshop on Arms Control and the 1990 NPT Review Conference'' on December 5--6, 1989, at Los Alamos. The fundamental objective of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to states that do not possess them; however, another of the NPT objectives is to encourage arms control efforts in the nuclear and nonnuclear arenas. Accordingly, under Article VI, each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursuemore » negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.'' This paper discusses ideas put forward at the Review Conference.« less

Oak Ridge Bio-surveillance Toolkit (ORBiT): Integrating Big-Data Analytics with Visual Analysis for Public Health Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramanathan, Arvind; Pullum, Laura L; Steed, Chad A

In this position paper, we describe the design and implementation of the Oak Ridge Bio-surveillance Toolkit (ORBiT): a collection of novel statistical and machine learning tools implemented for (1) integrating heterogeneous traditional (e.g. emergency room visits, prescription sales data, etc.) and non-traditional (social media such as Twitter and Instagram) data sources, (2) analyzing large-scale datasets and (3) presenting the results from the analytics as a visual interface for the end-user to interact and provide feedback. We present examples of how ORBiT can be used to summarize ex- tremely large-scale datasets effectively and how user interactions can translate into the datamore » analytics process for bio-surveillance. We also present a strategy to estimate parameters relevant to dis- ease spread models from near real time data feeds and show how these estimates can be integrated with disease spread models for large-scale populations. We conclude with a perspective on how integrating data and visual analytics could lead to better forecasting and prediction of disease spread as well as improved awareness of disease susceptible regions.« less

Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.

PubMed

Bouzid, Maha; Colón-González, Felipe J; Lung, Tobias; Lake, Iain R; Hunter, Paul R

2014-08-22

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.

Rumor spreading model with the different attitudes towards rumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yuhan; Pan, Qiuhui; Hou, Wenbing; He, Mingfeng

2018-07-01

Rumor spreading has a profound influence on people's well-being and social stability. There are many factors influencing rumor spreading. In this paper, we recommended an assumption that among the common mass there are three attitudes towards rumors: to like rumor spreading, to dislike rumor spreading, and to be hesitant (or neutral) to rumor spreading. Based on such an assumption, a Susceptible-Hesitating-Affected-Resistant(SHAR) model is established, which considered individuals' different attitudes towards rumor spreading. We also analyzed the local and global stability of rumor-free equilibrium and rumor-existence equilibrium, calculated the basic reproduction number of our model. With numerical simulations, we illustrated the effect of parameter changes on rumor spreading, analyzing the parameter sensitivity of the model. The results of the theoretical analysis and numerical simulations illustrated the conclusions of this study. People having different attitudes towards rumors may play different roles in the process of rumor spreading. It was surprising to find, in our research, that people who hesitate to spread rumors have a positive effect on the spread of rumors.

Controlling droplet spreading with topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kant, P.; Hazel, A. L.; Dowling, M.; Thompson, A. B.; Juel, A.

2017-09-01

We present an experimental system that can be used to study the dynamics of a picoliter droplet (in-flight radius of 12.2 μ m ) as it spreads over substrates with topographic variations. We concentrate on the spreading of a droplet within a recessed stadium-shaped pixel, with applications to the manufacture of polymer organic light-emitting-diode displays, and find that the sloping sidewall of the pixel can either locally enhance or hinder spreading depending on whether the topography gradient ahead of the contact line is positive or negative, respectively. Locally enhanced spreading occurs via the formation of thin pointed rivulets along the sidewalls of the pixel through a mechanism similar to capillary rise in sharp corners. We demonstrate that a simplified model involving quasistatic surface-tension effects within the framework of a thin-film approximation combined with an experimentally measured dynamic spreading law, relating the speed of the contact line to the contact angle, provides excellent predictions of the evolving liquid morphologies. A key feature of the liquid-substrate interaction studied here is the presence of significant contact angle hysteresis, which enables the persistence of noncircular fluid morphologies. We also show that the spreading law for an advancing contact line can be adequately approximated by a Cox-Voinov law for the majority of the evolution. The model does not include viscous effects in the bulk of the droplet and hence the time scales for the propagation of the thin pointed rivulets are not captured. Nonetheless, this simple model can be used very effectively to predict the areas covered by the liquid and may serve as a useful design tool for systems that require precise control of liquid on substrates.

NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program, 1990, Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bannerot, Richard B. (Editor); Goldstein, Stanley H. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The 1990 Johnson Space Center (JSC) NASA/American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Summer Faculty Fellowship Program was conducted by the University of Houston-University Park and JSC. A compilation of the final reports on the research projects are presented. The topics covered include: the Space Station; the Space Shuttle; exobiology; cell biology; culture techniques; control systems design; laser induced fluorescence; spacecraft reliability analysis; reduced gravity; biotechnology; microgravity applications; regenerative life support systems; imaging techniques; cardiovascular system; physiological effects; extravehicular mobility units; mathematical models; bioreactors; computerized simulation; microgravity simulation; and dynamic structural analysis.

Global Spread of the hylEfm Colonization-Virulence Gene in Megaplasmids of the Enterococcus faecium CC17 Polyclonal Subcluster▿

PubMed Central

Freitas, Ana R.; Tedim, Ana P.; Novais, Carla; Ruiz-Garbajosa, Patricia; Werner, Guido; Laverde-Gomez, Jenny A.; Cantón, Rafael; Peixe, Luísa; Baquero, Fernando; Coque, Teresa M.

2010-01-01

Enterococcus faecium has increasingly been reported as a nosocomial pathogen since the early 1990s, presumptively associated with the expansion of a human-associated Enterococcus faecium polyclonal subcluster known as clonal complex 17 (CC17) that has progressively acquired different antibiotic resistance (ampicillin and vancomycin) and virulence (espEfm, hylEfm, and fms) traits. We analyzed the presence and the location of a putative glycoside hydrolase hylEfm gene among E. faecium strains obtained from hospitalized patients (255 patients; outbreak, bacteremic, and/or disseminated isolates from 23 countries and five continents; 1986 to 2009) and from nonclinical origins (isolates obtained from healthy humans [25 isolates], poultry [30], swine [90], and the environment [55]; 1999 to 2007). Clonal relatedness was established by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Plasmid analysis included determination of content and size (S1-PFGE), transferability (filter mating), screening of Rep initiator proteins (PCR), and location of vanA, vanB, ermB, and hylEfm genes (S1/I-CeuI hybridization). Most E. faecium isolates contained large plasmids (>150 kb) and showed variable contents of van, hylEfm, or espEfm. The hylEfm gene was associated with megaplasmids (170 to 375 kb) of worldwide spread (ST16, ST17, and ST18) or locally predominant (ST192, ST203, ST280, and ST412) ampicillin-resistant CC17 clones collected in the five continents since the early 1990s. All but one hylEfm-positive isolate belonged to the CC17 polyclonal subcluster. The presence of hylEfm megaplasmids among CC17 from Europe, Australia, Asia, and Africa since at least the mid-1990s was documented. This study further demonstrates the pandemic expansion of particular CC17 clones before acquisition of vancomycin resistance and putative virulence traits and describes the presence of megaplasmids in most of the contemporary E. faecium isolates with different origins. PMID:20385861

The role of climate in the dynamics of a hybrid zone in Appalachian salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walls, Susan

2009-01-01

I examined the potential influence of climate change on the dynamics of a previously studied hybrid zone between a pair of terrestrial salamanders at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, in the Nantahala Mountains of North Carolina, USA. A 16-year study led by Nelson G. Hairston, Sr. revealed that Plethodon teyahalee and Plethodon shermani hybridized at intermediate elevations, forming a cline between 'pure' parental P. teyahalee at lower elevations and 'pure' parental P. shermani at higher elevations. From 1974 to 1990 the proportion of salamanders at the higher elevation scored as 'pure' P. shermani declined significantly, indicating that the hybrid zone was spreading upward. To date there have been no rigorous tests of hypotheses for the movement of this hybrid zone. Using temperature and precipitation data from Coweeta, I re-analyzed Hairston's data to examine whether the observed elevational shift was correlated with variation in either air temperature or precipitation from the same time period. For temperature, my analysis tracked the results of the original study: the proportion of 'pure' P. shermani at the higher elevation declined significantly with increasing mean annual temperature, whereas the proportion of 'pure' P. teyahalee at lower elevations did not. There was no discernable relationship between proportions of 'pure' individuals of either species with variation in precipitation. From 1974 to 1990, low-elevation air temperatures at the Coweeta Laboratory ranged from annual means of 11.8 to 14.2 °C, compared with a 55-year average (1936-1990) of 12.6 °C. My re-analyses indicate that the upward spread of the hybrid zone is correlated with increasing air temperatures, but not precipitation, and provide an empirical test of a hypothesis for one factor that may have influenced this movement. My results aid in understanding the potential impact that climate change may have on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial salamanders in montane regions.

The simulation of surface fire spread based on Rothermel model in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain (Jilin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Hang; Jin, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Fan, Yuguang; Qin, Liwu; Chen, Qinghong; Huang, Liya; Jia, Xiang; Liu, Lijie; Dai, Yuhong; Xiao, Ying

2018-03-01

The forest-fire not only brings great loss to natural resources, but also destructs the ecosystem and reduces the soil fertility, causing some natural disasters as soil erosion and debris flow. However, due to the lack of the prognosis for forest fire spreading trend in forest fire fighting, it is difficult to formulate rational and effective fire-fighting scheme. In the event of forest fire, achieving accurate judgment to the fire behavior would greatly improve the fire-fighting efficiency, and reduce heavy losses caused by fire. Researches on forest fire spread simulation can effectively reduce the loss of disasters. The present study focused on the simulation of "29 May 2012" wildfire in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Basic data were retrieved from the "29 May 2012" wildfire and field survey. A self-development forest fire behavior simulated program based on Rothermel Model was used in the simulation. Kappa coefficient and Sørensen index were employed to evaluate the simulation accuracy. The results showed that: The perimeter of simulated burned area was 4.66 km, the area was 56.47 hm2 and the overlapped burned area was 33.68 hm2, and the estimated rate of fire spread was 0.259 m/s. Between the simulated fire and actual fire, the Kappa coefficient was 0.7398 and the Sørensen co-efficient was 0.7419. This proved the application of Rothermel model to conduct fire behavior simulation in windthrow meadow was feasible. It can achieve the goal of forecasting for the spread behavior in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Thus, our self-development program based on the Rothermel model can provide a effective forecast of fire spread, which will facilitate the fire suppression work.

Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: the example of Bulgaria.

PubMed

Martínez-López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos, Angel Manuel; Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

2013-07-26

The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The first three minutes - 1990 version. [of early universe after Big Bang

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schramm, David N.

1991-01-01

The present state of understanding of what occurred in the universe's first three minutes is reviewed. Emphasis is on the events that lead to potentially observable consequences and that are model-independent or at least generic to broad classes of models. Inflation, phase transitions, dark matter, and nucleosynthesis are summarized.

Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

Comparison of the response of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic during the warm periods of the 1920s-1960s and the 1990s-2000s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drinkwater, Ken

2009-10-01

Concern about future anthropogenic warming has lead to demands for information on what might happen to fish and fisheries under various climate-change scenarios. One suggestion has been to use past events as a proxy for what will happen in the future. In this paper a comparison between the responses of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) to two major warm periods in the North Atlantic during the 20th century is carried out to determine how reliable the past might be as a predictor of the future. The first warm period began during the 1920s, remained relatively warm through the 1960s, and was limited primarily to the northern regions (>60°N). The second warm period, which again covered the northern regions but also extended farther south (30°N), began in the 1990s and has continued into the present century. During the earlier warm period, the most northern of the cod stocks (West Greenland, Icelandic, and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea) increased in abundance, individual growth was high, recruitment was strong, and their distribution spread northward. Available plankton data suggest that these cod responses were driven by bottom-up processes. Fishing pressure increased during this period of high cod abundance and the northern cod stocks began to decline, as early as the 1950s in the Barents Sea but during the 1960s elsewhere. Individual growth declined as temperatures cooled and the cod distributions retracted southward. During the warming in the 1990s, the spawning stock biomass of cod in the Barents Sea again increased, recruitment rose, and the stock spread northward, but the individual growth did not improve significantly. Cod off West Greenland also have shown signs of improving recruitment and increasing biomass, albeit they are still very low in comparison to the earlier warming period. The abundance of Icelandic cod, on the other hand, has remained low through the recent warm period and spawning stock biomass and total biomass are at levels near the lowest on record. The different responses of cod to the two warm events, in particular the reduced cod production during the recent warm period, are attributed to the effects of intense fishing pressure and possibly related ecosystem changes. The implications of the results of the comparisons on the development of cod scenarios under future climate change are addressed.

Estimating wildland fire rate of spread in a spatially nonuniform environment

Treesearch

Francis M Fujioka

1985-01-01

Estimating rate of fire spread is a key element in planning for effective fire control. Land managers use the Rothermel spread model, but the model assumptions are violated when fuel, weather, and topography are nonuniform. This paper compares three averaging techniques--arithmetic mean of spread rates, spread based on mean fuel conditions, and harmonic mean of spread...

Accounting for Space—Quantification of Cell-To-Cell Transmission Kinetics Using Virus Dynamics Models.

PubMed

Kumberger, Peter; Durso-Cain, Karina; Uprichard, Susan L; Dahari, Harel; Graw, Frederik

2018-04-17

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) that describe the population dynamics of viruses and infected cells have been an essential tool to characterize and quantify viral infection dynamics. Although an important aspect of viral infection is the dynamics of viral spread, which includes transmission by cell-free virions and direct cell-to-cell transmission, models used so far ignored cell-to-cell transmission completely, or accounted for this process by simple mass-action kinetics between infected and uninfected cells. In this study, we show that the simple mass-action approach falls short when describing viral spread in a spatially-defined environment. Using simulated data, we present a model extension that allows correct quantification of cell-to-cell transmission dynamics within a monolayer of cells. By considering the decreasing proportion of cells that can contribute to cell-to-cell spread with progressing infection, our extension accounts for the transmission dynamics on a single cell level while still remaining applicable to standard population-based experimental measurements. While the ability to infer the proportion of cells infected by either of the transmission modes depends on the viral diffusion rate, the improved estimates obtained using our novel approach emphasize the need to correctly account for spatial aspects when analyzing viral spread.

From political controversy to a technical problem? Fifteen years of opioid substitution treatment in Finland.

PubMed

Selin, Jani; Hakkarainen, Pekka; Partanen, Airi; Tammi, Tuukka; Tigerstedt, Christoffer

2013-11-01

The aim of the article is to analyze changes in opioid substitution treatments (OST) in Finland. OST spread in Finland in the late 1990s and early 2000s (Phase 1). Since then, OST has become an integrated part of Finnish drug policy and is provided in various substance abuse treatment units as well as in municipal health centers (Phase 2). The paper analyses the policy around the implementation of opioid substitution treatment in Finland, focusing on identifying the key factors and the relations between them that have contributed to the implementation of OST in Finland. OST has become accepted in Finland during the past ten years as a crucial element of a harm reduction strategy. Present incentives behind this development are not as clearly related to drug-specific policies as in the late 1990s; rather, they stem from both the restructuring of health care services (e.g. cost-effectiveness) and the strengthening of the medical or technico-administrative approach to the development of OST. Since the early 2000s, the development of substitution treatment in Finland has not taken place under explicit drug-political guidance, but largely as a result of many differing intended and unintended effects. One of the unintended effects is the fact that buprenorphine has replaced heroin as the most commonly misused opioid in Finland. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

More than 20 years after re-emerging in the 1990s, diphtheria remains a public health problem in Latvia

PubMed Central

Kantsone, Ieva; Lucenko, Irina; Perevoscikovs, Jurijs

2016-01-01

In 1994, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the goal of eliminating diphtheria within the WHO European Region by the year 2000. However, in 1990 an epidemic emerged within the Russian Federation and spread to other countries, including Latvia, by 1994. We describe national surveillance and immunisation coverage data in Latvia from 1994 to 2014 and present historical data from 1946. We defined a laboratory-confirmed case as a clinical case in which toxin-producing Corynebacterium diphtheriae, C. ulcerans or C. pseudotuberculosis was isolated. From 1994 to 2014, 1,515 cases were reported, giving an average annual incidence of 3.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (range 0.1–14.8), with the highest incidence in age groups 5–19 and 40–49 years (4.4 and 4.3/100,000, respectively); 111 deaths were reported, 83.8% cases were laboratory-confirmed. Most cases occurred in unvaccinated adults. To improve disease control a supplementary immunisation campaign for adults was initiated in 1995, and by the end of 1998 national coverage among adults reached 70%, and reached 77% in 2003, but declined to 59% by 2014. Diphtheria remains a problem in Latvia with continued circulation of toxin-producing strains of C. diphtheriae. We recommend to strengthen immunisation to cover adults, as well as the education of health professionals and a serological survey. PMID:27934582

Cretaceous to present kinematics of the Indian, African and Seychelles plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eagles, Graeme; Hoang, Ha H.

2014-01-01

An iterative inverse model of seafloor spreading data from the Mascarene and Madagascar basins and the flanks of the Carlsberg Ridge describes a continuous history of Indian-African Plate divergence since 84 Ma. Visual-fit modelling of conjugate magnetic anomaly data from near the Seychelles platform and Laxmi Ridge documents rapid rotation of a Seychelles Plate about a nearby Euler pole in Palaeocene times. As the Euler pole migrated during this rotation, the Amirante Trench on the western side of the plate accommodated first convergence and later divergence with the African Plate. The unusual present-day morphology of the Amirante Trench and neighbouring Amirante Banks can be related to crustal thickening by thrusting and folding during the convergent phase and the subsequent development of a spreading centre with a median valley during the divergent phase. The model fits FZ trends in the north Arabian and east Somali basins, suggesting that they formed in India-Africa Plate divergence. Seafloor fabric in and between the basins shows that they initially hosted a segmented spreading ridge that accommodated slow plate divergence until 71-69 Ma, and that upon arrival of the Deccan-Réunion plume and an increase to faster plate divergence rates in the period 69-65 Ma, segments of the ridge lengthened and propagated. Ridge propagation into the Indian continental margin led first to the formation of the Laxmi Basin, which accompanied extensive volcanism onshore at the Deccan Traps and offshore at the Saurashtra High and Somnath Ridge. A second propagation episode initiated the ancestral Carlsberg Ridge at which Seychelles-India and India-Africa Plate motions were accommodated. With the completion of this propagation, the plate boundaries in the Mascarene Basin were abandoned. Seafloor spreading between this time and the present has been accommodated solely at the Carlsberg Ridge.

Spreading Activation in an Attractor Network with Latching Dynamics: Automatic Semantic Priming Revisited

PubMed Central

Lerner, Itamar; Bentin, Shlomo; Shriki, Oren

2012-01-01

Localist models of spreading activation (SA) and models assuming distributed-representations offer very different takes on semantic priming, a widely investigated paradigm in word recognition and semantic memory research. In the present study we implemented SA in an attractor neural network model with distributed representations and created a unified framework for the two approaches. Our models assumes a synaptic depression mechanism leading to autonomous transitions between encoded memory patterns (latching dynamics), which account for the major characteristics of automatic semantic priming in humans. Using computer simulations we demonstrated how findings that challenged attractor-based networks in the past, such as mediated and asymmetric priming, are a natural consequence of our present model’s dynamics. Puzzling results regarding backward priming were also given a straightforward explanation. In addition, the current model addresses some of the differences between semantic and associative relatedness and explains how these differences interact with stimulus onset asynchrony in priming experiments. PMID:23094718

Components of Attention Modulated by Temporal Expectation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Vangkilde, Signe; Bundesen, Claus

2015-01-01

By varying the probabilities that a stimulus would appear at particular times after the presentation of a cue and modeling the data by the theory of visual attention (Bundesen, 1990), Vangkilde, Coull, and Bundesen (2012) provided evidence that the speed of encoding a singly presented stimulus letter into visual short-term memory (VSTM) is…

On the Spatial Spread of Rabies among Foxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. D.; Stanley, E. A.; Brown, D. L.

1986-11-01

We present a simple model for the spatial spread of rabies among foxes and use it to quantify its progress in England if rabies were introduced. The model is based on the known ecology of fox behaviour and on the assumption that the main vector for the spread of the disease is the rabid fox. Known data and facts are used to determine real parameter values involved in the model. We calculate the speed of propagation of the epizootic front, the threshold for the existence of an epidemic, the period and distance apart of the subsequent cyclical epidemics which follow the main front, and finally we quantify a means for control of the spatial spread of the disease. By way of illustration we use the model to determine the progress of rabies up through the southern part of England if it were introduced near Southampton. Estimates for the current fox density in England were used in the simulations. These suggest that the disease would reach Manchester within about 3.5 years, moving at speeds as high as 100 km per year in the central region. The model further indicates that although it might seem that the disease had disappeared after the wave had passed it would reappear in the south of England after just over 6 years and at periodic times after that. We consider the possibility of stopping the spread of the disease by creating a rabies `break' ahead of the front through vaccination to reduce the population to a level below the threshold for an epidemic to exist. Based on parameter values relevant to England, we estimate its minimum width to be about 15 km. The model suggests that vaccination has considerable advantages over severe culling.

Multi-Million Atom Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Shocked Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

chose this system for two reasons: First, accurate and widely tested atomistic models are available (van Beest et. al., 1990; Yuan and Cormack...Surface (PES) We have identified a model of silica (van Beest et. al., 1990) that has been extensively tested and that predicts several polymorphic...states (Saika-Voivod et. al., 2004). This model, hereafter denoted as the BKS model after its authors (van Beest et. al., 1990), assumes that the

Mapping the Distribution of Wildfire Fuels Using AVIRIS in the Santa Monica Mountains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Dar; Gardner, M.; Regelbrugge, J.; Pedreros, D.; Ustin, S.

1998-01-01

Catastrophic wildfires, such as the 1990 Painted Cave Fire in Santa Barbara or Oakland fire of 1991, attest to the destructive potential of fire in the wildland/urban interface. For example, during the Painted Cave Fire, 673 structures were consumed over a period of only six hours at an estimated cost of 250 million dollars (Gomes et al., 1993). One of the primary sources of fuels is chaparral, which consists of plant species that are adapted to frequent fires and may actually promote its ignition and spread of through volatile organic compounds in foliage. As one of the most widely distributed plant communities in Southern California, and one of the most common vegetation types along the wildland urban interface, chaparral represents one of the greatest sources of wildfire hazard in the region. An ongoing NASA funded research project was initiated in 1994 to study the potential of AVIRIS for mapping wildfire fuel properties in Southern California chaparral. The project was initiated in the Santa Monica Mountains, an east-west trending range in western Los Angeles County that has experienced extremely high fire frequencies over the past 70 years. The Santa Monica Mountains were selected because they exemplify many of the problems facing the southwest, forming a complex mosaic of land ownership intermixed with a diversity of chaparral age classes and fuel loads. Furthermore, the area has a wide diversity of chaparral community types and a rich background in supporting geographic information including fire history, soils and topography. Recent fires in the Santa Monica Mountains, including several in 1993 and the Calabasas fire of 1996 attest to the active fire regime present in the area. The long term objectives of this project are to improve existing maps of wildland fuel properties in the area, link AVIRIS derived products to fuel models under development for the region, then predict fire hazard through models that simulate fire spread. In this paper, we describe the AVIRIS derived products we are developing to map wildland fuels.

Epidemic spreading by objective traveling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Ming; Liu, Zonghua; Li, Baowen

2009-07-01

A fundamental feature of agent traveling in social networks is that traveling is usually not a random walk but with a specific destination and goes through the shortest path from starting to destination. A serious consequence of the objective traveling is that it may result in a fast epidemic spreading, such as SARS etc. In this letter we present a reaction-traveling model to study how the objective traveling influences the epidemic spreading. We consider a random scale-free meta-population network with sub-population at each node. Through a SIS model we theoretically prove that near the threshold of epidemic outbreak, the objective traveling can significantly enhance the final infected population and the infected fraction at a node is proportional to its betweenness for the traveling agents and approximately proportional to its degree for the non-traveling agents. Numerical simulations have confirmed the theoretical predictions.

Sampling Based Influence Maximization on Linear Threshold Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Su; Chen, Ling

2018-04-01

A sampling based influence maximization on linear threshold (LT) model method is presented. The method samples the routes in the possible worlds in the social networks, and uses Chernoff bound to estimate the number of samples so that the error can be constrained within a given bound. Then the active possibilities of the routes in the possible worlds are calculated, and are used to compute the influence spread of each node in the network. Our experimental results show that our method can effectively select appropriate seed nodes set that spreads larger influence than other similar methods.

International arrivals: widespread bioinvasions in European Seas

PubMed Central

Galil, B.S.; Marchini, A.; Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A.; Minchin, D.; Narščius, A.; Ojaveer, H.; Olenin, S.

2014-01-01

The European Union lacks a comprehensive framework to address the threats posed by the introduction and spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS). Current efforts are fragmented and suffer substantial gaps in coverage. In this paper we identify and discuss issues relating to the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of introductions in European Seas (ES), based on a scientifically validated information system of aquatic non-indigenous and cryptogenic species, AquaNIS. While recognizing the limitations of the existing data, we extract information that can be used to assess the relative risk of introductions for different taxonomic groups, geographic regions and likely vectors. The dataset comprises 879 multicellular NIS. We applied a country-based approach to assess patterns of NIS richness in ES, and identify the principal introduction routes and vectors, the most widespread NIS and their spatial and temporal spread patterns. Between 1970 and 2013, the number of recorded NIS has grown by 86, 173 and 204% in the Baltic, Western European margin and the Mediterranean, respectively; 52 of the 879 NIS were recorded in 10 or more countries, and 25 NIS first recorded in European seas since 1990 have since been reported in five or more countries. Our results highlight the ever-rising role of shipping (commercial and recreational) as a vector for the widespread and recently spread NIS. The Suez Canal, a corridor unique to the Mediterranean, is responsible for the increased introduction of new thermophilic NIS into this warming sea. The 2020 goal of the EU Biodiversity Strategy concerning marine Invasive Alien Species may not be fully attainable. The setting of a new target date should be accompanied by scientifically robust, sensible and pragmatic plans to minimize introductions of marine NIS and to study those present. PMID:24899770

International arrivals: widespread bioinvasions in European Seas.

PubMed

Galil, B S; Marchini, A; Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A; Minchin, D; Narščius, A; Ojaveer, H; Olenin, S

2014-04-01

The European Union lacks a comprehensive framework to address the threats posed by the introduction and spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS). Current efforts are fragmented and suffer substantial gaps in coverage. In this paper we identify and discuss issues relating to the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of introductions in European Seas (ES), based on a scientifically validated information system of aquatic non-indigenous and cryptogenic species, AquaNIS. While recognizing the limitations of the existing data, we extract information that can be used to assess the relative risk of introductions for different taxonomic groups, geographic regions and likely vectors. The dataset comprises 879 multicellular NIS. We applied a country-based approach to assess patterns of NIS richness in ES, and identify the principal introduction routes and vectors, the most widespread NIS and their spatial and temporal spread patterns. Between 1970 and 2013, the number of recorded NIS has grown by 86, 173 and 204% in the Baltic, Western European margin and the Mediterranean, respectively; 52 of the 879 NIS were recorded in 10 or more countries, and 25 NIS first recorded in European seas since 1990 have since been reported in five or more countries. Our results highlight the ever-rising role of shipping (commercial and recreational) as a vector for the widespread and recently spread NIS. The Suez Canal, a corridor unique to the Mediterranean, is responsible for the increased introduction of new thermophilic NIS into this warming sea. The 2020 goal of the EU Biodiversity Strategy concerning marine Invasive Alien Species may not be fully attainable. The setting of a new target date should be accompanied by scientifically robust, sensible and pragmatic plans to minimize introductions of marine NIS and to study those present.

Expansion of tubenose gobies Proterorhinus semilunaris into western Lake Erie and potential effects on native species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kocovsky, P.M.; Tallman, J.A.; Jude, D.J.; Murphy, D.M.; Brown, J.E.; Stepien, C.A.

2011-01-01

The Eurasian freshwater tubenose goby Proterorhinus semilunaris (formerly Proterorhinus marmoratus) invaded the Laurentian Great Lakes in the 1990s, presumably via ballast water from transoceanic cargo ships. Tubenose gobies spread throughout Lake St. Clair, its tributaries, and the Detroit River system, and also are present in the Duluth-Superior harbor of Lake Superior. Using seines and bottom trawls, we collected 113 tubenose gobies between July 2007 and August 2009 at several locations in western Lake Erie. The number and range of sizes of specimens collected suggest that that tubenose gobies have become established and self-sustaining in the western basin of Lake Erie. Tubenose gobies reached maximum densities in sheltered areas with abundant macrophyte growth, which also is their common habitat in native northern Black Sea populations. The diet of tubenose gobies was almost exclusively invertebrates, suggesting dietary overlap with other benthic fishes, such as darters (Etheostoma spp. and Percina sp.), madtoms (Noturus spp.), and sculpins (Cottus spp.). A single mitochondrial DNA haplotype was identified, which is the most common haplotype found in the original colonization area in the Lake St. Clair region, suggesting a founder effect. Tubenose gobies, like round gobies Neogobius melanostomus, have early life stages that drift owing to vertical migration, which probably allowed them to spread from areas of colonization. The Lake St. Clair-Lake Erie corridor appears to have served as an avenue for them to spread to the western basin of Lake Erie, and abundance of shallow macrophyte-rich habitats may be a key factor facilitating their further expansion within Lake Erie and the remainder of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Increased tree establishment in Lithuanian peat bogs--insights from field and remotely sensed approaches.

PubMed

Edvardsson, Johannes; Šimanauskienė, Rasa; Taminskas, Julius; Baužienė, Ieva; Stoffel, Markus

2015-02-01

Over the past century an ongoing establishment of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), sometimes at accelerating rates, is noted at three studied Lithuanian peat bogs, namely Kerėplis, Rėkyva and Aukštumala, all representing different degrees of tree coverage and geographic settings. Present establishment rates seem to depend on tree density on the bog surface and are most significant at sparsely covered sites where about three-fourth of the trees have established since the mid-1990s, whereas the initial establishment in general was during the early to mid-19th century. Three methods were used to detect, compare and describe tree establishment: (1) tree counts in small plots, (2) dendrochronological dating of bog pine trees, and (3) interpretation of aerial photographs and historical maps of the study areas. In combination, the different approaches provide complimentary information but also weigh up each other's drawbacks. Tree counts in plots provided a reasonable overview of age class distributions and enabled capturing of the most recently established trees with ages less than 50 years. The dendrochronological analysis yielded accurate tree ages and a good temporal resolution of long-term changes. Tree establishment and spread interpreted from aerial photographs and historical maps provided a good overview of tree spread and total affected area. It also helped to verify the results obtained with the other methods and an upscaling of findings to the entire peat bogs. The ongoing spread of trees in predominantly undisturbed peat bogs is related to warmer and/or drier climatic conditions, and to a minor degree to land-use changes. Our results therefore provide valuable insights into vegetation changes in peat bogs, also with respect to bog response to ongoing and future climatic changes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE HYDROCARBON SPILL SCREENING MODEL (HSSM), VOLUME 2: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND SOURCE CODES

EPA Science Inventory

A screening model for subsurface release of a nonaqueous phase liquid which is less dense than water (LNAPL) is presented. The model conceptualizes the release as consisting of 1) vertical transport from near the surface to the capillary fringe, 2) radial spreading of an LNAPL l...

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Dimensional reduction for a SIR type model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyono, Edi; Soeharyadi, Yudi; Mukhsar

2018-03-01

Epidemic phenomena are often modeled in the form of dynamical systems. Such model has also been used to model spread of rumor, spread of extreme ideology, and dissemination of knowledge. Among the simplest is SIR (susceptible, infected and recovered) model, a model that consists of three compartments, and hence three variables. The variables are functions of time which represent the number of subpopulations, namely suspect, infected and recovery. The sum of the three is assumed to be constant. Hence, the model is actually two dimensional which sits in three-dimensional ambient space. This paper deals with the reduction of a SIR type model into two variables in two-dimensional ambient space to understand the geometry and dynamics better. The dynamics is studied, and the phase portrait is presented. The two dimensional model preserves the equilibrium and the stability. The model has been applied for knowledge dissemination, which has been the interest of knowledge management.

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature projections.

Effects of Network Structure, Competition and Memory Time on Social Spreading Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleeson, James P.; O'Sullivan, Kevin P.; Baños, Raquel A.; Moreno, Yamir

2016-04-01

Online social media has greatly affected the way in which we communicate with each other. However, little is known about what fundamental mechanisms drive dynamical information flow in online social systems. Here, we introduce a generative model for online sharing behavior that is analytically tractable and that can reproduce several characteristics of empirical micro-blogging data on hashtag usage, such as (time-dependent) heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity. The presented framework constitutes a null model for social spreading phenomena that, in contrast to purely empirical studies or simulation-based models, clearly distinguishes the roles of two distinct factors affecting meme popularity: the memory time of users and the connectivity structure of the social network.

New sidescan sonar and gravity evidence that the Nova-Canton Trough is a fracture zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, Devorah; Taylor, Brian; Shor, Alexander N.

1992-05-01

A 1990 sidescan sonar survey in the eastern region of the Nova-Canton Trough mapped 138°-striking abyssal-hill fabric trending into 70°-striking trough structures. The location and angle of intersection of the abyssal hills with the eastern Nova-Canton Trough effectively disprove a spreading-center origin of this feature. Free-air gravity anomalies derived from satellite altimetry data show continuity, across the Line Islands, of the Nova-Canton Trough with the Clipperton Fracture Zone. The Canton-Clipperton trend is copolar, about a pole at 30°S, 152°W, with other coeval Pacific-Farallon fracture-zone segments, from the Pau to Marquesas fracture zones. This copolarity leads us to postulate a Pacific-Farallon spreading pattern for the magnetic quiet zone region north and east of the Manihiki Plateau, with the Nova-Canton Trough originating as a transform fault in this system.

Studies on the population dynamics of a rumor-spreading model in online social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Suyalatu; Fan, Feng-Hua; Huang, Yong-Chang

2018-02-01

This paper sets up a rumor spreading model in online social networks based on the European fox rabies SIR model. The model considers the impact of changing number of online social network users, combines the transmission dynamics to set up a population dynamics of rumor spreading model in online social networks. Simulation is carried out on online social network, and results show that the new rumor spreading model is in accordance with the real propagation characteristics in online social networks.

SICR rumor spreading model in complex networks: Counterattack and self-resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zan, Yongli; Wu, Jianliang; Li, Ping; Yu, Qinglin

2014-07-01

Rumor is an important form of social interaction. However, spreading of harmful rumors could have a significant negative impact on the well-being of the society. In this paper, considering the counterattack mechanism of the rumor spreading, we introduce two new models: Susceptible-Infective-Counterattack-Refractory (SICR) model and adjusted-SICR model. We then derive mean-field equations to describe their dynamics in homogeneous networks and conduct the steady-state analysis. We also introduce the self-resistance parameter τ, and study the influence of this parameter on rumor spreading. Numerical simulations are performed to compare the SICR model with the SIR model and the adjusted-SICR model, respectively, and we investigate the spreading peak of the rumor and the final size of the rumor with various parameters. Simulation results are congruent exactly with the theoretical analysis. The experiment reveals some interesting patterns of rumor spreading involved with counterattack force.

SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

2017-10-01

Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

Assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading in the watercolor configuration.

PubMed

Kimura, Eiji; Kuroki, Mikako

2014-01-01

A colored line flanking a darker contour will appear to spread its color onto an area enclosed by the line (watercolor effect). The watercolor effect has been characterized as an assimilative effect, but non-assimilative color spreading has also been demonstrated in the same spatial configuration; e.g., when a black inner contour (IC) is paired with a blue outer contour (OC), yellow color spreading can be observed. To elucidate visual mechanisms underlying these different color spreading effects, this study investigated the effects of luminance ratio between the double contours on the induced color by systematically manipulating the IC and the OC luminance (Experiment 1) as well as the background luminance (Experiment 2). The results showed that the luminance conditions suitable for assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading were nearly opposite. When the Weber contrast of the IC to the background luminance (IC contrast) was smaller in size than that of the OC (OC contrast), the induced color became similar to the IC color (assimilative spreading). In contrast, when the OC contrast was smaller than or equal to the IC contrast, the induced color became yellow (non-assimilative spreading). Extending these findings, Experiment 3 showed that bilateral color spreading, i.e., assimilative spreading on one side and non-assimilative spreading on the other side, can also be observed in the watercolor configuration. These results suggest that the assimilative and the non-assimilative spreading were mediated by different visual mechanisms. The properties of the assimilative spreading are consistent with the model proposed to account for neon color spreading (Grossberg and Mingolla, 1985) and extended for the watercolor effect (Pinna and Grossberg, 2005). However, the present results suggest that additional mechanisms are needed to account for the non-assimilative color spreading.

A method of PSF generation for 3D brightfield deconvolution.

PubMed

Tadrous, P J

2010-02-01

This paper addresses the problem of 3D deconvolution of through focus widefield microscope datasets (Z-stacks). One of the most difficult stages in brightfield deconvolution is finding the point spread function. A theoretically calculated point spread function (called a 'synthetic PSF' in this paper) requires foreknowledge of many system parameters and still gives only approximate results. A point spread function measured from a sub-resolution bead suffers from low signal-to-noise ratio, compounded in the brightfield setting (by contrast to fluorescence) by absorptive, refractive and dispersal effects. This paper describes a method of point spread function estimation based on measurements of a Z-stack through a thin sample. This Z-stack is deconvolved by an idealized point spread function derived from the same Z-stack to yield a point spread function of high signal-to-noise ratio that is also inherently tailored to the imaging system. The theory is validated by a practical experiment comparing the non-blind 3D deconvolution of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae with the point spread function generated using the method presented in this paper (called the 'extracted PSF') to a synthetic point spread function. Restoration of both high- and low-contrast brightfield structures is achieved with fewer artefacts using the extracted point spread function obtained with this method. Furthermore the deconvolution progresses further (more iterations are allowed before the error function reaches its nadir) with the extracted point spread function compared to the synthetic point spread function indicating that the extracted point spread function is a better fit to the brightfield deconvolution model than the synthetic point spread function.

Forecasting outdoor recreation participation: a cohort-component projection model for Illinois residents

Treesearch

John F. Dwyer

1995-01-01

Population projections for Illinois predicts lower growth, an older population, and increased racial diversity. If percent of the population participating in outdoor recreation activities by age and race remains at present levels, cohort-component projection models suggest that with projected changes in the population between 1990 and 2025, the number of Illinois...

The Dynamics of Academic Productivity. A Seminar (Denver, Colorado, March 2, 1990).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massy, William F.; Zemsky, Robert

This report is an edited version of the transcript of a seminar held to explore the problem of increasing costs and defining productivity in higher education. The main paper, by William Massey, presents a conceptual model explaining the forces driving up costs in academic departments of institutions of higher education. Under the model there have…

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-02-01

The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3-6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during winter and spring, more discharge shall occur in future (RCP8.5) in Satluj River.

Soldier communication net for the 21st century digitized battlespace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Libo; Zhang, Yutian

1999-07-01

This paper present soldier communication net scheme, which survives and operates in the 21st century battlefield environment. First, it analyzes the features, the need, function of the soldier communication net on the 21st century battlefield environment. Secondly it presents a layered model of the soldier communication net, derived from the OSI theory, and discusses the design of the 3 layers, link layer, link controller and input/output applications layer. Thirdly, it present some key technical discussion concerning with the direct-sequence-spread-spectrum communication, code/decode and low power consumption. Finally, it gives the conclusion that spread spectrum time division system is the best scheme of soldier communication net.

Event-Driven Process Chains (EPC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendling, Jan

This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of Event-driven Process Chains (EPCs) and introduces a novel definition of EPC semantics. EPCs became popular in the 1990s as a conceptual business process modeling language in the context of reference modeling. Reference modeling refers to the documentation of generic business operations in a model such as service processes in the telecommunications sector, for example. It is claimed that reference models can be reused and adapted as best-practice recommendations in individual companies (see [230, 168, 229, 131, 400, 401, 446, 127, 362, 126]). The roots of reference modeling can be traced back to the Kölner Integrationsmodell (KIM) [146, 147] that was developed in the 1960s and 1970s. In the 1990s, the Institute of Information Systems (IWi) in Saarbrücken worked on a project with SAP to define a suitable business process modeling language to document the processes of the SAP R/3 enterprise resource planning system. There were two results from this joint effort: the definition of EPCs [210] and the documentation of the SAP system in the SAP Reference Model (see [92, 211]). The extensive database of this reference model contains almost 10,000 sub-models: 604 of them non-trivial EPC business process models. The SAP Reference model had a huge impact with several researchers referring to it in their publications (see [473, 235, 127, 362, 281, 427, 415]) as well as motivating the creation of EPC reference models in further domains including computer integrated manufacturing [377, 379], logistics [229] or retail [52]. The wide-spread application of EPCs in business process modeling theory and practice is supported by their coverage in seminal text books for business process management and information systems in general (see [378, 380, 49, 384, 167, 240]). EPCs are frequently used in practice due to a high user acceptance [376] and extensive tool support. Some examples of tools that support EPCs are ARIS Toolset by IDS Scheer AG, AENEIS by ATOSS Software AG, ADONIS by BOC GmbH, Visio by Microsoft Corp., Nautilus by Gedilan Consulting GmbH, and Bonapart by Pikos GmbH. In order to facilitate the interchange of EPC business process models between these tools, there is a tool neutral interchange format called EPC Markup Language (EPML) [283, 285, 286, 287, 289, 290, 291].

Diversity of HIV-1 subtype C strains isolated in Romania.

PubMed

Paraschiv, Simona; Foley, Brian; Otelea, Dan

2011-03-01

Two unique aspects particularities of the HIV-1 epidemics in Romania are the high prevalence of subtype F1 strains and the large pediatric population infected in the late 1980s and early 1990s. During recent years, more infections with other subtypes have been seen in newly diagnosed patients. After subtype B, subtype C was the most frequent one. This subtype is prevalent in countries from sub-Saharan Africa and India, being responsible for half of the total HIV-1 infections in the world. We have identified 37 patients infected with subtype C, sequenced the reverse transcriptase and protease regions of their pol genes, and applied phylogenetic analyses to the sequences. We have also included 20 subtype F1 strains isolated from both teenagers (children at the time of diagnosis) and adults. The phylogenetic analysis was performed by using the PhyML method, the GTR (general time reversible) model of evolution and gamma distribution of variability of rates between sites, empirically calculated from the data. The epidemiological data indicates that the main route of transmission for the adult subjects was by heterosexual contact and a relatively small number of patients were possibly infected abroad. In three cases, blood transfusion prior to 1989 or surgical procedures at early ages were suspected to be the cause of the HIV infection and three other patients were most probably parenterally infected. The phylogenetic analyses showed that the Romanian C strains are very diverse overall, clustered in several groups characterized by common transmission route (transfusion/surgical procedures) or local geographical relatedness. The HIV-1 epidemics in Romania apparently followed different patterns for subtypes F and C. While subtype F1 seems to have been monoclonally introduced and extensively spread in the 80s, the subtype C strains, although present in the late 80s, failed to spread to the same extent. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spreading in online social networks: the role of social reinforcement.

PubMed

Zheng, Muhua; Lü, Linyuan; Zhao, Ming

2013-07-01

Some epidemic spreading models are usually applied to analyze the propagation of opinions or news. However, the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information or behavior spreading are essentially different in many aspects. Centola's experiments [Science 329, 1194 (2010)] on behavior spreading in online social networks showed that the spreading is faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks. This result contradicts with the former understanding that random networks are preferable for spreading than regular networks. To describe the spreading in online social networks, a unknown-known-approved-exhausted four-status model was proposed, which emphasizes the effect of social reinforcement and assumes that the redundant signals can improve the probability of approval (i.e., the spreading rate). Performing the model on regular and random networks, it is found that our model can well explain the results of Centola's experiments on behavior spreading and some former studies on information spreading in different parameter space. The effects of average degree and network size on behavior spreading process are further analyzed. The results again show the importance of social reinforcement and are accordant with Centola's anticipation that increasing the network size or decreasing the average degree will enlarge the difference of the density of final approved nodes between regular and random networks. Our work complements the former studies on spreading dynamics, especially the spreading in online social networks where the information usually requires individuals' confirmations before being transmitted to others.

Gravitational Influences on Flame Propagation through Non-Uniform, Premixed Gas Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Fletcher J.; Easton, John; Ross, Howard D.; Marchese, Anthony; Perry, David; Kulis, Michael

2001-01-01

Flame propagation through non-uniformly premixed (or layered) gases has importance both in useful combustion systems and in unintentional fires. As summarized previously, non-uniform premixed gas combustion receives scant attention compared to the more usual limiting cases of diffusion or uniformly premixed flames, especially regarding the role gravity plays. This paper summarizes our progress on furthering the knowledge of layered combustion, in which a fuel concentration gradient exists normal to the direction of flame spread. We present experimental and numerical results for flame spread through propanol-air layers formed near the flash point temperature (25 C) or near the stoichiometric temperature (33 C). Both the model and experimental results show that the removal of gravity results in a faster spreading flame, by as much as 80% depending on conditions. This is exactly the opposite effect as that predicted by an earlier model reported. We also found that having a gallery lid results in faster flame spread, an effect more pronounced at normal gravity, demonstrating the importance of enclosure geometry. Also reported here is the beginning of our spectroscopic measurements of fuel vapor.

Spectrum Sharing in an ISM Band: Outage Performance of a Hybrid DS/FH Spread Spectrum System with Beamforming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hanyu; Syed, Mubashir; Yao, Yu-Dong; Kamakaris, Theodoros

2009-12-01

This paper investigates spectrum sharing issues in the unlicensed industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) bands. It presents a radio frequency measurement setup and measurement results in 2.4 GHz. It then develops an analytical model to characterize the coexistence interference in the ISM bands, based on radio frequency measurement results in the 2.4 GHz. Outage performance using the interference model is examined for a hybrid direct-sequence frequency-hopping spread spectrum system. The utilization of beamforming techniques in the system is also investigated, and a simplified beamforming model is proposed to analyze the system performance using beamforming. Numerical results show that beamforming significantly improves the system outage performance. The work presented in this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of signal outages in a spectrum sharing environment. It can be used as a tool in the development process for future dynamic spectrum access models as well as engineering designs for applications in unlicensed bands.

Greenhouse warming and the tropical water budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Betts, Alan K.

1990-01-01

The present work takes issue with some of the theses of Lindzen's (1990) work on global warming, arguing in particular that Lindzen's work is hampered by the use of oversimplified models. Lindzen then presents a detailed reply to these arguments, emphasizing the fundamental importance of the upper tropospheric water-vapor budget to the question of global warming.

Late Mesozoic- Cenozoic plate boundaries in the North Atlantic – Arctic: Quantitative reconstructions using Hellinger criterion in GPlates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaina, Carmen; Watson, Robin; Cirbus, Juraj

2015-04-01

Cretaceous extension that resulted in the formation of several sedimentary basins along the North American and western and southwestern Greenland margin was followed by seafloor spreading in the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. Controversy regarding the timing of the oldest oceanic crust in these basins spanned more than 25 years and it is still not resolved due to the complexity of the margins and non-uniqueness of potential field data interpretation. Here we revisit the geophysical data (in particular the magnetic and gravity data) available for the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay in order to identify the age of oceanic crust and infer new parameters that can be used for quantitative kinematic reconstructions. We identify chrons 20 to 29 for the central part of the basin. For the crust formed near the extinct spreading ridge we have modelled chrons 19 to 15 assuming an ultraslow spreading rate. Oceanic crust older than chron 29 is uncertain and may be part of a transitional crust that possibly contains other type of crust or exhumed mantle. The new magnetic anomaly identifications were inverted using the Hellinger (1981) criterion of fit. In this method the magnetic data are regarded as points on two conjugate isochrons consisting of great circle segments. This method has been extensively used for kinematic reconstructions since Royer and Chang (1991) first implemented it for quantitative plate tectonics, and is now available as a new interactive tool in the open-source software GPlates (www.gplates.org). The GPlates Hellinger tool lets the user interactively generate a best-fit rotation pole to a series of segmented magnetic picks. The fitting and determination of uncertainties are based on the FORTRAN program hellinger1 (Chang, 1988; Hellinger, 1981; Hanna and Chang, 1990); Royer and Chang, 1991). Input data can be viewed and adjusted both tabularly and graphically, and the best fit can be viewed and tested on the GPlates globe. The new set of rotations and their uncertainties are combined with a regional model and used to infer the plate boundaries during the formation of Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. Challenges for establishing the continuation of these plate boundaries the Arctic domain are also discussed. References Chang, T. (1988), Estimating the relative rotation of two tectonic plates from boundary crossings, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 1178-1183. Hellinger, S. J. (1981), The uncertainties of finite rotations in plate tectonics, J Geophys Res, 86, 9312-9318. Hanna, M.S and T. Chang (1990), On graphically representing the confidence region for an unknown rotation in three dimensions. Computers & Geosciences 16 (2), 163-194. Royer, J. Y., and T. Chang (1991), Evidence for Relative Motions between the Indian and Australian Plates during the Last 20 My from Plate Tectonic Reconstructions - Implications for the Deformation of the Indo-Australian Plate, J Geophys Res, 96(B7), 11779-11802.

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

PubMed

Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

2008-05-01

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

Wavelength Independent Optical Lithography and Microscopy

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-10-30

Engineering Physics H. Barshatzky (1985 - present) Cornell, School of Applied & Engineering Physics I. Walton (1987 - 1988) National Semiconductor...Santa Clara, California R. Chen (1989 - 1990) Digital Equipment Corporation S. Boedecker (1990 - present) Cornell, School of Applied & Engineering Physics...H. Chen (1990 - present) Cornell, Department of Materials Science and Engineering M. Park (1987) Cornell, School of Applied & Engineering Physics M. Tornai (1988) UCLA, Dept. Medical Physics,

Models of Wake-Vortex Spreading Mechanisms and Their Estimated Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, Vernon J.; Hardy, Gordon H.; Meyn, Larry A.

2006-01-01

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity at its busiest airports. Many airports with nearly-simultaneous operations on closely-spaced parallel runways (i.e., as close as 750 ft (246m)) suffer a severe decrease in runway acceptance rate when weather conditions do not allow full utilization. The objective of a research program at NASA Ames Research Center is to develop the technologies needed for traffic management in the airport environment so that operations now allowed on closely-spaced parallel runways under Visual Meteorological Conditions can also be carried out under Instrument Meteorological Conditions. As part of this overall research objective, the study reported here has developed improved models for the various aerodynamic mechanisms that spread and transport wake vortices. The purpose of the study is to continue the development of relationships that increase the accuracy of estimates for the along-trail separation distances available before the vortex wake of a leading aircraft intrudes into the airspace of a following aircraft. Details of the models used and their uncertainties are presented in the appendices to the paper. Suggestions are made as to the theoretical and experimental research needed to increase the accuracy of and confidence level in the models presented and instrumentation required or more precise estimates of the motion and spread of vortex wakes. The improved wake models indicate that, if the following aircraft is upwind of the leading aircraft, the vortex wakes of the leading aircraft will not intrude into the airspace of the following aircraft for about 7s (based on pessimistic assumptions) for most atmospheric conditions. The wake-spreading models also indicate that longer time intervals before wake intrusion are available when atmospheric turbulence levels are mild or moderate. However, if the estimates for those time intervals are to be reliable, further study is necessary to develop the instrumentation and procedures needed to accurately define when the more benign atmospheric conditions exist.

Assessing the role of spatial correlations during collective cell spreading

PubMed Central

Treloar, Katrina K.; Simpson, Matthew J.; Binder, Benjamin J.; McElwain, D. L. Sean; Baker, Ruth E.

2014-01-01

Spreading cell fronts are essential features of development, repair and disease processes. Many mathematical models used to describe the motion of cell fronts, such as Fisher's equation, invoke a mean–field assumption which implies that there is no spatial structure, such as cell clustering, present. Here, we examine the presence of spatial structure using a combination of in vitro circular barrier assays, discrete random walk simulations and pair correlation functions. In particular, we analyse discrete simulation data using pair correlation functions to show that spatial structure can form in a spreading population of cells either through sufficiently strong cell–to–cell adhesion or sufficiently rapid cell proliferation. We analyse images from a circular barrier assay describing the spreading of a population of MM127 melanoma cells using the same pair correlation functions. Our results indicate that the spreading melanoma cell populations remain very close to spatially uniform, suggesting that the strength of cell–to–cell adhesion and the rate of cell proliferation are both sufficiently small so as not to induce any spatial patterning in the spreading populations. PMID:25026987

Cannibalism amplifies the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens.

PubMed

Sadeh, Asaf; Rosenheim, Jay A

2016-08-01

Cannibalism is a widespread behavior. Abundant empirical evidence demonstrates that cannibals incur a risk of contracting pathogenic infections when they consume infected conspecifics. However, current theory suggests that cannibalism generally impedes disease spread, because each victim is usually consumed by a single cannibal, such that cannibalism does not function as a spreading process. Consequently, cannibalism cannot be the only mode of transmission of most parasites. We develop simple, but general epidemiological models to analyze the interaction of cannibalism and vertical transmission. We show that cannibalism increases the prevalence of vertically transmitted pathogens whenever the host population density is not solely regulated by cannibalism. This mechanism, combined with additional, recently published, theoretical mechanisms, presents a strong case for the role of cannibalism in the spread of infectious diseases across a wide range of parasite-host systems. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

PubMed

McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

2017-10-01

In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing cytoskeletal free energy and increasing passive elastic free energy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information spreading in Delay Tolerant Networks based on nodes' behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yahui; Deng, Su; Huang, Hongbin

2014-07-01

Information spreading in DTNs (Delay Tolerant Networks) adopts a store-carry-forward method, and nodes receive the message from others directly. However, it is hard to judge whether the information is safe in this communication mode. In this case, a node may observe other nodes' behaviors. At present, there is no theoretical model to describe the varying rule of the nodes' trusting level. In addition, due to the uncertainty of the connectivity in DTN, a node is hard to get the global state of the network. Therefore, a rational model about the node's trusting level should be a function of the node's own observing result. For example, if a node finds k nodes carrying a message, it may trust the information with probability p(k). This paper does not explore the real distribution of p(k), but instead presents a unifying theoretical framework to evaluate the performance of the information spreading in above case. This framework is an extension of the traditional SI (susceptible-infected) model, and is useful when p(k) conforms to any distribution. Simulations based on both synthetic and real motion traces show the accuracy of the framework. Finally, we explore the impact of the nodes' behaviors based on certain special distributions through numerical results.

Modeling the potential of different countries for pandemic spread over the global air network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhe; Lv, Baolei; Xu, Bing

2017-04-01

Air network plays an important role in the spread of global epidemics due to its superior speed and range. Understanding the disease transmission pattern via network is the foundation for the prevention and control of future pandemics. In this study, we measured the potential of different countries for the pandemic spread by using a disease transmission model which integrated inter-country air traffic flow and geographic distance. The model was verified on the spread pattern of 2003 SARS, 2009 H1N1 influenza and 2014 Ebola by setting starting point at China, Mexico and Guinea respectively. Results showed that the model well reproduced the spread direction during the early stage as the time course were in good agreement with the reported arrival dates. Then the model was used to simulate the potential risk of each country in spreading the disease as the origin country. We observed that countries in North America, Europe and East Asia had the highest risk of transmission considering their high degree in the air network. We also found that for most starting countries, United States, United Kingdom, Germany and France would become the most-important spreading cores. Compared with empirical Susceptible-Infectious-Recover model, this model could respond much faster to the disease spread with no need for empirical disease transmission parameters.

Gossip spread in social network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, Tobias

2017-04-01

Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

Validation of the gravity model in predicting the global spread of influenza.

PubMed

Li, Xinhai; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-08-01

The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model's performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico). The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account.

Structural Mechanics Division research and technology plans for FY 1990 and accomplishments for FY 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bales, Kay S.

1990-01-01

The Objectives, FY 1990 Plans, Approach, and FY 1990 Milestones for the Structural Mechanics Division's research programs are presented. FY 1989 Accomplishments are presented where applicable. This information is useful in program coordination with other governmental organizations in areas of mutual interest.

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

2015-09-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks

PubMed Central

ZHANG, ZHAOYANG; WANG, HONGGANG; WANG, CHONGGANG; FANG, HUA

2016-01-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion. PMID:27722037

Numerical Computation of Flame Spread over a Thin Solid in Forced Concurrent Flow with Gas-phase Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jiang, Ching-Biau; T'ien, James S.

1994-01-01

Excerpts from a paper describing the numerical examination of concurrent-flow flame spread over a thin solid in purely forced flow with gas-phase radiation are presented. The computational model solves the two-dimensional, elliptic, steady, and laminar conservation equations for mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species. Gas-phase combustion is modeled via a one-step, second order finite rate Arrhenius reaction. Gas-phase radiation considering gray non-scattering medium is solved by a S-N discrete ordinates method. A simplified solid phase treatment assumes a zeroth order pyrolysis relation and includes radiative interaction between the surface and the gas phase.

Bursting endemic bubbles in an adaptive network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherborne, N.; Blyuss, K. B.; Kiss, I. Z.

2018-04-01

The spread of an infectious disease is known to change people's behavior, which in turn affects the spread of disease. Adaptive network models that account for both epidemic and behavioral change have found oscillations, but in an extremely narrow region of the parameter space, which contrasts with intuition and available data. In this paper we propose a simple susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on an adaptive network with time-delayed rewiring, and show that oscillatory solutions are now present in a wide region of the parameter space. Altering the transmission or rewiring rates reveals the presence of an endemic bubble—an enclosed region of the parameter space where oscillations are observed.

A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

Treesearch

D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

2011-01-01

Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

Diffusion of Super-Gaussian Profiles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenberg, C.-J.; Anderson, D.; Desaix, M.; Johannisson, P.; Lisak, M.

2007-01-01

The present analysis describes an analytically simple and systematic approximation procedure for modelling the free diffusive spreading of initially super-Gaussian profiles. The approach is based on a self-similar ansatz for the evolution of the diffusion profile, and the parameter functions involved in the modelling are determined by suitable…

Preliminary comparison of 3.5-cm and 12.6-cm wavelength continuous wave observations of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, H. J.; Obrien, T. C.; Jurgens, R. F.; Slade, M. A.; Thompson, T. W.

1991-01-01

Radar observations of Mars at Goldstone in 1990 were conducted by transmitting pure sinusoidal signals at 3.5-cm wavelengths and receiving the Doppler-spread echoes from Mars at Earth. Radar transmissions were circularly polarized and the echoes recorded in two senses: depolarized and polarized. Latitudes of the subradar points are between 3.5 deg and 11.1 deg S; longitude coverage is discontinuous. The observed depolarized and polarized echo total cross-sections and their ratios for two wavelengths were compared and discussed.

Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza

PubMed Central

Li, Xinhai; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-01-01

The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model’s performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico). The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account. PMID:21909295

Regional Sea Level Changes Projected by the NASA/GISS Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Gornitz, Vivien; Miller, James R.

1999-01-01

Sea level has been rising for the past century, and inhabitants of the Earth's coastal regions will want to understand and predict future sea level changes. In this study we present results from new simulations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global atmosphere-ocean model from 1950 to 2099. Model results are compared with observed sea level changes during the past 40 years at 17 coastal stations around the world. Using observed levels of greenhouse gases between 1950 and 1990 and a compounded 0.5% annual increase in Co2 after 1990, model projections show that global sea level measured from 1950 will rise by 61 mm in the year 2000, by 212 mm in 2050, and by 408 mm in 2089. By 2089, two thirds of the global sea level rise will be due to thermal expansion and one third will be due to ocean mass changes. The spatial distribution of sea level rise is different than that projected by rigid lid ocean models.

Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

2012-12-01

Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model coupled to the IBIS DGVM model. Our area of study comprises selected regions in and near the Brazilian "arc of deforestation". For model training and evaluation, several areas have been mapped using high-resolution imagery from the Landsat TM/ETM+ sensors (Figure 1). This high resolution reference data is used for local-scale simulations and also to evaluate the accuracy of the global MCD45 burned area product, which will be used in future studies covering the entire "arc of deforestation".; Area of study along the arc of deforestation and cerrado: landsat scenes used and burned area (2010) from MCD45 product.

An alternative model for OPEC stability: The carrot and stick approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akacem, M.; Fleisher, A.A. III

1994-12-31

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has gone through turbulent times since its inception in 1960. The decade of the 1970s represented the peak of its power; however, the 1980s and 1990s are characterized by the erosion of OPECs position. After a brief exposition of the principles of resource economics and their relevance to OPEC, we review oligopoly theory and its specific application to OPEC. A model of cartel behavior will then be presented and its relevance to OPEC will be emphasized. Our theory is that OPEC can use a trigger price strategy (a punishment phase when overproductionmore » occurs, followed by a resumption phase of full compliance of the quota agreement) to stabilize output. An insurance policy scheme will be presented in combination with the trigger price strategy, the goal of which may improve the stability of OPEC. Finally, we shall show how the present organization may evolve over time into a much smaller entity by the late 1990s composed of the Gulf producers.« less

[DESCRIPTION AND PRESENTATION OF THE RESULTS OF ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAM PROCESSING USING AN INFORMATION MODEL].

PubMed

Myznikov, I L; Nabokov, N L; Rogovanov, D Yu; Khankevich, Yu R

2016-01-01

The paper proposes to apply the informational modeling of correlation matrix developed by I.L. Myznikov in early 1990s in neurophysiological investigations, such as electroencephalogram recording and analysis, coherence description of signals from electrodes on the head surface. The authors demonstrate information models built using the data from studies of inert gas inhalation by healthy human subjects. In the opinion of the authors, information models provide an opportunity to describe physiological processes with a high level of generalization. The procedure of presenting the EEG results holds great promise for the broad application.

Predictive Model of Supercooled Water Droplet Pinning/Repulsion Impacting a Superhydrophobic Surface: The Role of the Gas-Liquid Interface Temperature.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Morteza; Tembely, Moussa; Dolatabadi, Ali

2017-02-28

Dynamical analysis of an impacting liquid drop on superhydrophobic surfaces is mostly carried out by evaluating the droplet contact time and maximum spreading diameter. In this study, we present a general transient model of the droplet spreading diameter developed from the previously defined mass-spring model for bouncing drops. The effect of viscosity was also considered in the model by definition of a dash-pot term extracted from experiments on various viscous liquid droplets on a superhydrophobic surface. Furthermore, the resultant shear force of the stagnation air flow was also considered with the help of the classical Homann flow approach. It was clearly shown that the proposed model predicts the maximum spreading diameter and droplet contact time very well. On the other hand, where stagnation air flow is present in contradiction to the theoretical model, the droplet contact time was reduced as a function of both droplet Weber numbers and incoming air velocities. Indeed, the reduction in the droplet contact time (e.g., 35% at a droplet Weber number of up to 140) was justified by the presence of a formed thin air layer underneath the impacting drop on the superhydrophobic surface (i.e., full slip condition). Finally, the droplet wetting model was also further developed to account for low temperature through the incorporation of classical nucleation theory. Homogeneous ice nucleation was integrated into the model through the concept of the reduction of the supercooled water drop surface tension as a function of the gas-liquid interface temperature, which was directly correlated with the Nusselt number of incoming air flow. It was shown that the experimental results was qualitatively predicted by the proposed model under all supercooling conditions (i.e., from -10 to -30 °C).

A study of the spreading scheme for viral marketing based on a complex network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianmei; Yao, Canzhong; Ma, Weicheng; Chen, Guanrong

2010-02-01

Buzzword-based viral marketing, known also as digital word-of-mouth marketing, is a marketing mode attached to some carriers on the Internet, which can rapidly copy marketing information at a low cost. Viral marketing actually uses a pre-existing social network where, however, the scale of the pre-existing network is believed to be so large and so random, so that its theoretical analysis is intractable and unmanageable. There are very few reports in the literature on how to design a spreading scheme for viral marketing on real social networks according to the traditional marketing theory or the relatively new network marketing theory. Complex network theory provides a new model for the study of large-scale complex systems, using the latest developments of graph theory and computing techniques. From this perspective, the present paper extends the complex network theory and modeling into the research of general viral marketing and develops a specific spreading scheme for viral marking and an approach to design the scheme based on a real complex network on the QQ instant messaging system. This approach is shown to be rather universal and can be further extended to the design of various spreading schemes for viral marketing based on different instant messaging systems.

Elaborating the History of Our Cementing Societies: An in-Use Stock Perspective.

PubMed

Cao, Zhi; Shen, Lei; Løvik, Amund N; Müller, Daniel B; Liu, Gang

2017-10-03

Modern cities and societies are built fundamentally based on cement and concrete. The global cement production has risen sharply in the past decades due largely to urbanization and construction. Here we deployed a top-down dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model to quantify the historical development of cement in-use stocks in residential, nonresidential, and civil engineering sectors of all world countries. We found that global cement production spreads unevenly among 184 countries, with China dominating the global production and consumption after the 1990s. Nearly all countries have shown an increasing trend of per capita cement in-use stock in the past century. The present per capita cement in-use stocks vary from 10 to 40 tonnes in major industrialized and transiting countries and are below 10 tonnes in developing countries. Evolutionary modes identified from historical patterns suggest that per capita in-use cement stock growth generally complies with an S-shape curve and relates closely to affluence and urbanization of a country, but more in-depth and bottom-up investigations are needed to better understand socioeconomic drivers behind stock growth. These identified in-use stock patterns can help us better estimate future demand of cement, explore strategies for emissions reduction in the cement industry, and inform CO 2 uptake potentials of cement based products and infrastructure in service.

X-Ray Burst Oscillations: From Flame Spreading to the Cooling Wake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahmoodifar, Simin; Strohmayer, Tod

2016-01-01

Type I X-ray bursts are thermonuclear flashes observed from the surfaces of accreting neutron stars (NSs) in low mass X-ray binaries. Oscillations have been observed during the rise and/or decay of some of these X-ray bursts. Those seen during the rise can be well explained by a spreading hot spot model, but large amplitude oscillations in the decay phase remain mysterious because of the absence of a clear-cut source of asymmetry. To date there have not been any quantitative studies that consistently track the oscillation amplitude both during the rise and decay (cooling tail) of bursts. Here we compute the light curves and amplitudes of oscillations in X-ray burst models that realistically account for both flame spreading and subsequent cooling. We present results for several such "cooling wake" models, a "canonical" cooling model where each patch on the NS surface heats and cools identically, or with a latitude-dependent cooling timescale set by the local effective gravity, and an "asymmetric" model where parts of the star cool at significantly different rates. We show that while the canonical cooling models can generate oscillations in the tails of bursts, they cannot easily produce the highest observed modulation amplitudes. Alternatively, a simple phenomenological model with asymmetric cooling can achieve higher amplitudes consistent with the observations.

Probing the Hawaiian Hot Spot With New Broadband Ocean Bottom Instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laske, Gabi; Collins, John A.; Wolfe, Cecily J.; Solomon, Sean C.; Detrick, Robert S.; Orcutt, John A.; Bercovici, David; Hauri, Erik H.

2009-10-01

The Hawaiian hot spot is regarded as the textbook example of the product of a deep-rooted mantle plume [Wilson, 1963; Morgan, 1971]. Its isolated location, far from any plate boundary, should provide an opportunity to test most basic hypotheses on the nature of plume-plate interaction and related magmatism [e.g., Ribe and Christensen, 1999]. Yet the lack of crucial geophysical data has sustained a debate about whether Hawaii's volcanism is plume-related or is instead the consequence of more shallow processes, such as the progressive fracturing of the plate in response to extensional stresses [Turcotte and Oxburgh, 1973]. In the plume model for Hawaii's volcanism, hot material is expected to ascend near vertically within the more viscous surrounding mantle before ponding and spreading laterally beneath the rigid lithosphere. Mantle convection in general, and the fast moving Pacific plate in particular, shear and tilt the rising plume. The plume top is dragged downstream by the plate, and this dragged material may give rise to an elongated bathymetric swell [Davies, 1988; Olson, 1990; Sleep, 1990; Phipps Morgan et al., 1995]. However, identifying the dominant cause of the swell remains elusive, and proposed mechanisms include thermal rejuvenation, dynamic support, compositional buoyancy, and mechanical erosion (see Li et al. [2004] for a summary). There is also considerable debate about the continuity of the plume within the mantle, how discrete islands are formed, and how a deep-rooted plume interacts with the mantle transition zone [e.g., van Keken and Gable, 1995].

The relationship between trees and human health: evidence from the spread of the emerald ash borer.

PubMed

Donovan, Geoffrey H; Butry, David T; Michael, Yvonne L; Prestemon, Jeffrey P; Liebhold, Andrew M; Gatziolis, Demetrios; Mao, Megan Y

2013-02-01

Several recent studies have identified a relationship between the natural environment and improved health outcomes. However, for practical reasons, most have been observational, cross-sectional studies. A natural experiment, which provides stronger evidence of causality, was used to test whether a major change to the natural environment-the loss of 100 million trees to the emerald ash borer, an invasive forest pest-has influenced mortality related to cardiovascular and lower-respiratory diseases. Two fixed-effects regression models were used to estimate the relationship between emerald ash borer presence and county-level mortality from 1990 to 2007 in 15 U.S. states, while controlling for a wide range of demographic covariates. Data were collected from 1990 to 2007, and the analyses were conducted in 2011 and 2012. There was an increase in mortality related to cardiovascular and lower-respiratory-tract illness in counties infested with the emerald ash borer. The magnitude of this effect was greater as infestation progressed and in counties with above-average median household income. Across the 15 states in the study area, the borer was associated with an additional 6113 deaths related to illness of the lower respiratory system, and 15,080 cardiovascular-related deaths. Results suggest that loss of trees to the emerald ash borer increased mortality related to cardiovascular and lower-respiratory-tract illness. This finding adds to the growing evidence that the natural environment provides major public health benefits. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Multi-Faceted Analysis of a New Therapeutic Model of Linking Appraisals to Affective Experiences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Christopher; And Others

I. Roseman, M. Spindel, and P. Jose (1990) had previously demonstrated that specific appraisals of events led to discrete emotional responses, but this model has not been widely tested by other research teams using alternative research methods. The present study utilized four qualitative research methods, taught by Patti Lather at the 1994…

Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Council for Programs in Technical and Scientific Communication (17th, San Diego, California, October 11-13, 1990).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zappen, James P., Ed.; Katz, Susan, Ed.

Based on the theme of assessment, this proceedings presents papers and discussions from the annual meeting of the Council for Programs in Technical and Scientific Communication (CPTSC). Three papers in the proceedings discussing curricula are: "Model(s) for Educating Professional Communicators" (Marilyn M. Cooper); "Summary of…

Retrograde tracing and toe spreading after experimental autologous nerve transplantation and crush injury of the sciatic nerve: a descriptive methodological study.

PubMed

van Neerven, Sabien Ga; Bozkurt, Ahmet; O'Dey, Dan Mon; Scheffel, Juliane; Boecker, Arne H; Stromps, Jan-Philipp; Dunda, Sebastian; Brook, Gary A; Pallua, Norbert

2012-04-30

Evaluation of functional and structural recovery after peripheral nerve injury is crucial to determine the therapeutic effect of a nerve repair strategy. In the present study, we examined the relationship between the structural evaluation of regeneration by means of retrograde tracing and the functional analysis of toe spreading. Two standardized rat sciatic nerve injury models were used to address this relationship. As such, animals received either a 2 cm sciatic nerve defect (neurotmesis) followed by autologous nerve transplantation (ANT animals) or a crush injury with spontaneous recovery (axonotmesis; CI animals). Functional recovery of toe spreading was observed over an observation period of 84 days. In contrast to CI animals, ANT animals did not reach pre-surgical levels of toe spreading. After the observation period, the lipophilic dye DiI was applied to label sensory and motor neurons in dorsal root ganglia (DRG; sensory neurons) and spinal cord (motor neurons), respectively. No statistical difference in motor or sensory neuron counts could be detected between ANT and CI animals.In the present study we could indicate that there was no direct relationship between functional recovery (toe spreading) measured by SSI and the number of labelled (motor and sensory) neurons evaluated by retrograde tracing. The present findings demonstrate that a multimodal approach with a variety of independent evaluation tools is essential to understand and estimate the therapeutic benefit of a nerve repair strategy.

Coded spread spectrum digital transmission system design study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heller, J. A.; Odenwalder, J. P.; Viterbi, A. J.

1974-01-01

Results are presented of a comprehensive study of the performance of Viterbi-decoded convolutional codes in the presence of nonideal carrier tracking and bit synchronization. A constraint length 7, rate 1/3 convolutional code and parameters suitable for the space shuttle coded communications links are used. Mathematical models are developed and theoretical and simulation results are obtained to determine the tracking and acquisition performance of the system. Pseudorandom sequence spread spectrum techniques are also considered to minimize potential degradation caused by multipath.

Differences in simulated fire spread over Askervein Hill using two advanced wind models and a traditional uniform wind field

Treesearch

Jason Forthofer; Bret Butler

2007-01-01

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and a mass-consistent model were used to simulate winds on simulated fire spread over a simple, low hill. The results suggest that the CFD wind field could significantly change simulated fire spread compared to traditional uniform winds. The CFD fire spread case may match reality better because the winds used in the fire...

A qualitative comparison of fire spread models incorporating wind and slope effects

Treesearch

David R. Weise; Gregory S. Biging

1997-01-01

Wind velocity and slope are two critical variables that affect wildland fire rate of spread. The effects of these variables on rate of spread are often combined in rate-of-spread models using vector addition. The various methods used to combine wind and slope effects have seldom been validated or compared due to differences in the models or to lack of data. In this...

Hindcasting of Equatorial Spread F Using Seasonal Empirical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswathy, R. P.; Manju, G.

2018-02-01

The role of gravity waves in modulating equatorial spread F (ESF) day-to-day variability is investigated using ionosonde data at Trivandrum (geographic coordinates, 8.5°N, 77°E; mean geomagnetic latitude -0.3°N) a magnetic equatorial location. A novel empirical model that incorporates the combined effects of electrodynamics and gravity waves in modulating ESF occurrence during autumnal equinox season was presented by Aswathy and Manju (2017). In the present study, the height variations of the requisite gravity wave seed perturbations for ESF are examined for the vernal equinoxes, summer solstices, and winter solstices of different years. Subsequently, the empirical model, incorporating the electrodynamical effects and the gravity wave modulation, valid for each of the seasons is developed. Accordingly, for each season, the threshold curve may be demarcated provided the solar flux index (F10.7) is known. The empirical models are validated using the data for high, moderate, and low solar activity years corresponding to each season. In the next stage, this model is to be fine tuned to facilitate the prediction of ESF well before its onset.

Innovative Learning Strategies. Ninth Yearbook, 1989-1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biggs, Shirley A., Ed.; Bullock, Terry, Ed.

The ninth yearbook of innovative learning strategies presents the following articles, grouped in three major sections. The first section, Program Models, contains: (1) "Cooperative Learning in a Study Skills Course" (Corrine Plotkin); (2) "Peer Tutor Preparation: A Guide to Training" (Kathy Carpenter); (3) "A Community…

Analyzing the impact of modeling choices and assumptions in compartmental epidemiological models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutaro, James J.; Pullum, Laura L.; Ramanathan, Arvind

In this study, computational models have become increasingly used as part of modeling, predicting, and understanding how infectious diseases spread within large populations. These models can be broadly classified into differential equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM). Both types of models are central in aiding public health officials design intervention strategies in case of large epidemic outbreaks. We examine these models in the context of illuminating their hidden assumptions and the impact these may have on the model outcomes. Very few ABM/EBMs are evaluated for their suitability to address a particular public health concern, and drawing relevant conclusions aboutmore » their suitability requires reliable and relevant information regarding the different modeling strategies and associated assumptions. Hence, there is a need to determine how the different modeling strategies, choices of various parameters, and the resolution of information for EBMs and ABMs affect outcomes, including predictions of disease spread. In this study, we present a quantitative analysis of how the selection of model types (i.e., EBM vs. ABM), the underlying assumptions that are enforced by model types to model the disease propagation process, and the choice of time advance (continuous vs. discrete) affect the overall outcomes of modeling disease spread. Our study reveals that the magnitude and velocity of the simulated epidemic depends critically on the selection of modeling principles, various assumptions of disease process, and the choice of time advance.« less

Analyzing the impact of modeling choices and assumptions in compartmental epidemiological models

DOE PAGES

Nutaro, James J.; Pullum, Laura L.; Ramanathan, Arvind; ...

2016-05-01

In this study, computational models have become increasingly used as part of modeling, predicting, and understanding how infectious diseases spread within large populations. These models can be broadly classified into differential equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM). Both types of models are central in aiding public health officials design intervention strategies in case of large epidemic outbreaks. We examine these models in the context of illuminating their hidden assumptions and the impact these may have on the model outcomes. Very few ABM/EBMs are evaluated for their suitability to address a particular public health concern, and drawing relevant conclusions aboutmore » their suitability requires reliable and relevant information regarding the different modeling strategies and associated assumptions. Hence, there is a need to determine how the different modeling strategies, choices of various parameters, and the resolution of information for EBMs and ABMs affect outcomes, including predictions of disease spread. In this study, we present a quantitative analysis of how the selection of model types (i.e., EBM vs. ABM), the underlying assumptions that are enforced by model types to model the disease propagation process, and the choice of time advance (continuous vs. discrete) affect the overall outcomes of modeling disease spread. Our study reveals that the magnitude and velocity of the simulated epidemic depends critically on the selection of modeling principles, various assumptions of disease process, and the choice of time advance.« less

Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Michael D.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

Geodetic investigation of plate spreading along a propagating ridge: the Eastern Volcanic Zone, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheiber-Enslin, Stephanie E.; Lafemina, Peter C.; Sturkell, Erik; Hooper, Andrew J.; Webb, Susan J.

2011-12-01

Hotspot-ridge interactions lead to the dynamic evolution of divergent plate boundaries, including propagating and overlapping ridge segments. In southern Iceland, the Eastern Volcanic Zone (EVZ) formed approximately 2-3 Ma ago during the last eastward ridge jump from the Western Volcanic Zone (WVZ), and is propagating to the southwest into the Tertiary lithosphere of the Eastern Volcanic Flank Zone. North America-Eurasia relative plate motion is partitioned between the Eastern and WVZs. We utilize new terrestrial (dry-tilt) and space (GPS and InSAR) geodetic data to investigate the nature of plate spreading and magma-tectonic interaction at the southern terminus of this propagating ridge system. We present a new GPS derived horizontal velocity field covering the period 1994-2006, new InSAR analyses for the periods 1993-2000 and 2003-2007, and models of plate spreading across this region. The velocity field indicates horizontal surface deformation consistent with plate spreading across and the propagation of the EVZ. The dry-tilt and InSAR data show transient deformation signals associated with magmatic processes. The velocity field is corrected for these transient deformation sources in order to investigate the nature of secular plate motion. Our model results indicate a decrease in spreading rate from northeast (15 mm yr-1) to southwest (9 mm yr-1) across the Torfajökull caldera and the intersection of the South Iceland Seismic Zone and EVZ, consistent with the propagating ridge model. Plate spreading south of the intersection demonstrates that spreading must be partitioned with the Reykjanes Peninsula to the west at this latitude. Our results also constrain the minimum flux (0.05 km3 km-1 kyr-1) of magma to this segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and indicate that the Hekla magmatic system strains the Torfajökull caldera during pre- and co-eruptive periods.

Influence of transport uncertainty on annual mean and seasonal inversions of atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peylin, Philippe; Baker, David; Sarmiento, Jorge; Ciais, Philippe; Bousquet, Philippe

2002-10-01

Inversion methods are often used to estimate surface CO2 fluxes from atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements, given an atmospheric transport model to relate the two. The published estimates disagree strongly on the location of the main sources and sinks, however. Are these differences due to the different time spans considered, or are they artifacts of the method and data used? Here we assess the uncertainty in such estimates due to the choice of time discretization of the measurements and fluxes, the spatial resolution of the fluxes, and the transport model. A suite of 27 Bayesian least squares inversions has been run, given by varying the number of flux regions solved for (7, 12, and 17), the time discretization (annual/annual, annual/monthly, and monthly/monthly for the fluxes/data), and the transport model (TM2, TM3, and GCTM), while holding all other inversion details constant. The estimated fluxes from this ensemble of inversions for the land + ocean sum are stable over large zonal bands, but the spread in the results increases when considering the longitudinal flux distribution inside these bands. On average for 1990-1994 the inversions place a large CO2 uptake north of 30°N (3.2 ± 0.3 GtC yr-1), mostly over the land regions, with more in Eurasia than North America. The ocean fluxes are generally smaller than given by [1999], especially south of 15°S and in the global total, where they are less than half as large. A small uptake is found for the tropical land regions, suggesting that growth more than compensates for deforestation there. The results for the different transport models are consistent with their known mixing properties; the longitudinal pattern of their land biosphere rectifier, in particular, strongly influences the regional partitioning of the flux in the north. While differences between the transport models contribute significantly to the spread of the results, an equivalent or even larger spread is due to the time discretization method used: Solving for annual mean fluxes with monthly mean measurements tended to give spurious land/ocean flux partition in the north. We suggest then that this time discretization method be avoided. Overall, the uncertainty quoted for the estimated fluxes should include not only the random error calculated by the inversion equations but also all the systematic errors in the problem, such as those addressed in this study.

Event ambiguity fuels the effective spread of rumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Zhang, Yi

2015-08-01

In this paper, a new rumor spreading model which quantifies a specific rumor spreading feature is proposed. The specific feature focused on is the important role the event ambiguity plays in the rumor spreading process. To study the impact of this event ambiguity on the spread of rumors, the probability p(t) that an individual becomes a rumor spreader from an initially unaware person at time t is built. p(t) reflects the extent of event ambiguity, and a parameter c of p(t) is used to measure the speed at which the event moves from ambiguity to confirmation. At the same time, a principle is given to decide on the correct value for parameter c A rumor spreading model is then developed with this function added as a parameter to the traditional model. Then, several rumor spreading model simulations are conducted with different values for c on both regular networks and ER random networks. The simulation results indicate that a rumor spreads faster and more broadly when c is smaller. This shows that if events are ambiguous over a longer time, rumor spreading appears to be more effective, and is influenced more significantly by parameter c in a random network than in a regular network. We then determine parameters of this model through data fitting of the missing Malaysian plane, and apply this model to an analysis of the missing Malaysian plane. The simulation results demonstrate that the most critical time for authorities to control rumor spreading is in the early stages of a critical event.

Software simulations of the detection of rapidly moving asteroids by a charge-coupled device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, R. S.; Stoll, C. P.

1982-10-01

A rendezvous of an unmanned probe to an earth-approaching asteroid has been given a high priority in the planning of interplanetary missions for the 1990s. Even without a space mission, much could be learned about the history of asteroids and comet nuclei if more information were available concerning asteroids with orbits which cross or approach the orbit of earth. It is estimated that the total number of earth-crossers accessible to ground-based survey telescopes should be approximately 1000. However, in connection with the small size and rapid angular motion expected of many of these objects an average of only one object is discovered per year. Attention is given to the development of the software necessary to distinguish such rapidly moving asteroids from stars and noise in continuously scanned CCD exposures of the night sky. Model and input parameters are considered along with detector sensitivity, aspects of minimum detectable displacement, and the point-spread function of the CCD.

Why did bluetongue spread the way it did? Environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic wave in France.

PubMed

Pioz, Maryline; Guis, Hélène; Crespin, Laurent; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier; Durand, Benoît; Abrial, David; Ducrot, Christian

2012-01-01

Understanding where and how fast an infectious disease will spread during an epidemic is critical for its control. However, the task is a challenging one as numerous factors may interact and drive the spread of a disease, specifically when vector-borne diseases are involved. We advocate the use of simultaneous autoregressive models to identify environmental features that significantly impact the velocity of disease spread. We illustrate this approach by exploring several environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue (BT) spread in France during the 2007-2008 epizootic wave to determine which ones were the most important drivers. We used velocities of BT spread estimated in 4,495 municipalities and tested sixteen covariates defining five thematic groups of related variables: elevation, meteorological-related variables, landscape-related variables, host availability, and vaccination. We found that ecological factors associated with vector abundance and activity (elevation and meteorological-related variables), as well as with host availability, were important drivers of the spread of the disease. Specifically, the disease spread more slowly in areas with high elevation and when heavy rainfall associated with extreme temperature events occurred one or two months prior to the first clinical case. Moreover, the density of dairy cattle was correlated negatively with the velocity of BT spread. These findings add substantially to our understanding of BT spread in a temperate climate. Finally, the approach presented in this paper can be used with other infectious diseases, and provides a powerful tool to identify environmental features driving the velocity of disease spread.

Why Did Bluetongue Spread the Way It Did? Environmental Factors Influencing the Velocity of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 Epizootic Wave in France

PubMed Central

Pioz, Maryline; Guis, Hélène; Crespin, Laurent; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier; Durand, Benoît; Abrial, David; Ducrot, Christian

2012-01-01

Understanding where and how fast an infectious disease will spread during an epidemic is critical for its control. However, the task is a challenging one as numerous factors may interact and drive the spread of a disease, specifically when vector-borne diseases are involved. We advocate the use of simultaneous autoregressive models to identify environmental features that significantly impact the velocity of disease spread. We illustrate this approach by exploring several environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue (BT) spread in France during the 2007–2008 epizootic wave to determine which ones were the most important drivers. We used velocities of BT spread estimated in 4,495 municipalities and tested sixteen covariates defining five thematic groups of related variables: elevation, meteorological-related variables, landscape-related variables, host availability, and vaccination. We found that ecological factors associated with vector abundance and activity (elevation and meteorological-related variables), as well as with host availability, were important drivers of the spread of the disease. Specifically, the disease spread more slowly in areas with high elevation and when heavy rainfall associated with extreme temperature events occurred one or two months prior to the first clinical case. Moreover, the density of dairy cattle was correlated negatively with the velocity of BT spread. These findings add substantially to our understanding of BT spread in a temperate climate. Finally, the approach presented in this paper can be used with other infectious diseases, and provides a powerful tool to identify environmental features driving the velocity of disease spread. PMID:22916249

A Kinematic Model for Opening of the Gulf of Mexico between 169-150 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harry, D. L.; Jha, S.

2016-12-01

Lineated magnetic anomalies interpreted to be seafloor spreading isochrons are identified in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The southernmost of these anomalies coincides with a strong positive vertical gravity gradient interpreted to mark the location of the extinct spreading ridge in the Gulf. Together, the magnetic and gravity anomalies reveal a concave-south fossil spreading system that accommodated counterclockwise rotation of Yucatan away from North America during Jurassic opening of the Gulf. Magnetic models show that the magnetic lineations correlate with geomagnetic time scale chrons M22n (150 Ma), M33n (161 Ma), M39n (165 Ma), and Toar-Aal N (174 Ma). M22n lies astride the fossil ridge and defines the age at which seafloor spreading ended. M33n lies between the ridge and the Florida shelf. M39n lies close to the shelf edge in the eastern Gulf. Taor-Aal N is the oldest recognized seafloor spreading anomaly and is present only in the central Gulf, laying near the ocean-continent transition (OCT). The magnetic anomalies define an Euler pole located at 22°N, 82ºW. Rotating Yucatan clockwise 29° about this pole places the northeast Yucatan shelf edge tightly against the southwestern Florida shelf, closing the southeastern Gulf. An additional 12° clockwise rotation juxtaposes the OCT on the northwestern Yucatan margin against the North American OCT in the central Gulf. These constraints on Yucatan's past position indicate that continental extension propagated from the western into the eastern Gulf between 215-174 Ma as Yucatan began to rotate away from North America. Seafloor spreading began 174 Ma and was asymmetric, with all extension occurring north of the spreading ridge. Symmetric seafloor spreading was established by 165 Ma and continued until 150 Ma. A total of 41°counterclockwise rotation of Yucatan relative to North America is predicted to have occurred during continental extension and seafloor spreading.

A theoretical model for Zika virus transmission

PubMed Central

Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Okosun, K. O.; Islam, Saeed

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present and analyze an SEIR Zika epidemic model. Firstly, we investigate the model with constant controls. The steady states of the model is found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable. Thereafter, we incorporate time dependent controls into the model in order to investigate the optimal effects of bednets, treatments of infective and spray of insecticides on the disease spread. Furthermore, we used Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to determine the necessary conditions for effective control of the disease. Also, the numerical results were presented. PMID:28977007

Effect of stratification and geometrical spreading on sonic boom rise time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cleveland, Robin O.; Hamilton, Mark F.; Blackstock, David T.

1994-01-01

The purpose of our investigation is to determine the effect of unsteadiness (not associated with turbulence) on rise time. The unsteadiness considered here is due to (1) geometrical spreading, (2) stratification, which includes variation in density, temperature, and relative humidity, and (3) N shaped waveform. A very general Burgers equation, which includes all these effects, is the propagation model for our study. The equation is solved by a new computational algorithm in which all the calculations are done in the time domain. The present paper is a progress report in which some of the factors contributing to unsteadiness are studied, namely geometrical spreading and variation in relative humidity. The work of Pierce and Kang, which motivated our study, is first reviewed. We proceed with a discussion of the Burgers equation model and the algorithm for solving the equation. Some comparison tests to establish the validity of the algorithm are presented. The algorithm is then used to determine the distance required for a steady-state shock, on encountering an abrupt change in relative humidity, to reach a new steady state based on the new humidity. It is found that the transition distance for plane shocks of amplitude 70 Pa is about 4 km when the change in relative humidity is 10 percent. Shocks of amplitude 140 Pa require less distance. The effect of spherical and cylindrical spreading is also considered. We demonstrate that a spreading shock wave never reaches steady state and that its rise time will be less than the equivalent steady state shock. Finally we show that an N wave has a slightly shorter rise time than a step shock of the same amplitude.

Common cold outbreaks: A network theory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishkaie, Faranak Rajabi; Bakouie, Fatemeh; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar

2014-11-01

In this study, at first we evaluated the network structure in social encounters by which respiratory diseases can spread. We considered common-cold and recorded a sample of human population and actual encounters between them. Our results show that the database structure presents a great value of clustering. In the second step, we evaluated dynamics of disease spread with SIR model by assigning a function to each node of the structural network. The rate of disease spread in networks was observed to be inversely correlated with characteristic path length. Therefore, the shortcuts have a significant role in increasing spread rate. We conclude that the dynamics of social encounters' network stands between the random and the lattice in network spectrum. Although in this study we considered the period of common-cold disease for network dynamics, it seems that similar approaches may be useful for other airborne diseases such as SARS.

Hybrid vehicle assessment. Phase 1: Petroleum savings analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levin, R.; Liddle, S.; Deshpande, G.; Trummel, M.; Vivian, H. C.

1984-01-01

The results of a comprehensive analysis of near term electric hybrid vehicles are presented, with emphasis on their potential to save significant amounts of petroleum on a national scale in the 1990s. Performance requirements and expected annual usage patterns of these vehicles are first modeled. The projected U.S. fleet composition is estimated, and conceptual hybrid vehicle designs are conceived and analyzed for petroleum use when driven in the expected annual patterns. These petroleum consumption estimates are then compared to similar estimates for projected 1990 conventional vehicles having the same performance and driven in the same patterns. Results are presented in the form of three utility functions and comparisons of sevral conceptual designs are made. The Hybrid Vehicle (HV) design and assessment techniques are discussed and a general method is explained for selecting the optimum energy management strategy for any vehicle mission battery combination. Conclusions and recommendations are presented, and development recommendations are identified.

Numerically bridging lamellipodial and filopodial activity during cell spreading reveals a potentially novel trigger of focal adhesion maturation.

PubMed

Loosli, Y; Vianay, B; Luginbuehl, R; Snedeker, J G

2012-05-01

We present a novel approach to modeling cell spreading, and use it to reveal a potentially central mechanism regulating focal adhesion maturation in various cell phenotypes. Actin bundles that span neighboring focal complexes at the lamellipodium-lamellum interface were assumed to be loaded by intracellular forces in proportion to bundle length. We hypothesized that the length of an actin bundle (with the corresponding accumulated force at its adhesions) may thus regulate adhesion maturation to ensure cell mechanical stability and morphological integrity. We developed a model to test this hypothesis, implementing a "top-down" approach to simplify certain cellular processes while explicitly incorporating complexity of other key subcellular mechanisms. Filopodial and lamellipodial activities were treated as modular processes with functional spatiotemporal interactions coordinated by rules regarding focal adhesion turnover and actin bundle dynamics. This theoretical framework was able to robustly predict temporal evolution of cell area and cytoskeletal organization as reported from a wide range of cell spreading experiments using micropatterned substrates. We conclude that a geometric/temporal modeling framework can capture the key functional aspects of the rapid spreading phase and resultant cytoskeletal complexity. Hence the model is used to reveal mechanistic insight into basic cell behavior essential for spreading. It demonstrates that actin bundles spanning nascent focal adhesions such that they are aligned to the leading edge may accumulate centripetal endogenous forces along their length, and could thus trigger focal adhesion maturation in a force-length dependent fashion. We suggest that this mechanism could be a central "integrating" factor that effectively coordinates force-mediated adhesion maturation at the lamellipodium-lamellum interface.

A computer simulation model of Wolbachia invasion for disease vector population modification.

PubMed

Guevara-Souza, Mauricio; Vallejo, Edgar E

2015-10-05

Wolbachia invasion has been proved to be a promising alternative for controlling vector-borne diseases, particularly Dengue fever. Creating computer models that can provide insight into how vector population modification can be achieved under different conditions would be most valuable for assessing the efficacy of control strategies for this disease. In this paper, we present a computer model that simulates the behavior of native mosquito populations after the introduction of mosquitoes infected with the Wolbachia bacteria. We studied how different factors such as fecundity, fitness cost of infection, migration rates, number of populations, population size, and number of introduced infected mosquitoes affect the spread of the Wolbachia bacteria among native mosquito populations. Two main scenarios of the island model are presented in this paper, with infected mosquitoes introduced into the largest source population and peripheral populations. Overall, the results are promising; Wolbachia infection spreads among native populations and the computer model is capable of reproducing the results obtained by mathematical models and field experiments. Computer models can be very useful for gaining insight into how Wolbachia invasion works and are a promising alternative for complementing experimental and mathematical approaches for vector-borne disease control.

A compilation of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emission-rate data from Cook Inlet volcanoes (Redoubt, Spurr, Iliamna, and Augustine), Alaska during the period from 1990 to 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doukas, Michael P.

1995-01-01

Airborne sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas sampling of the Cook Inlet volcanoes (Mt. Spurr, Redoubt, Iliamna, and Augustine) began in 1986 when several measurements were carried out at Augustine volcano during the eruption of 1986 (Rose and others, 1988). More systematic monitoring for SO2 began in March 1990 and for carbon dioxide (CO2) began in June, 1990 at Redoubt Volcano (Brantley, 1990 and Casadevall and others, 1994) and continues to the present. This report contains all of the available daily SO2 and CO2 emission rates determined by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from March 1990 through July 1994. Intermittent measurements (four to six month intervals) at Augustine and Iliamna began in 1990 and continues to the present. Intermittent measurements began at Mt. Spurr volcano in 1991, and were continued at more regular intervals from June, 1992 through the 1992 eruption at the Crater Peak vent to the present.

Progress toward achieving the national 1990 objectives for sexually transmitted diseases.

PubMed

1987-04-03

A summary evaluation of the status of 5 sexually transmitted disease (STD) goals is presented by the U.S. Public Health Service. 1st, gonorrhea cases, after a rapid rise in the early 1970s, have been steadily declining on the whole. Female cases, however, have been increasing, and resistant strains have spread dramatically. Thus it seems the goal of 280 cases per 100,000 by 1990 will not be met. 2nd, the pelvic inflammatory disease rate is declining toward the goal, even though Chlamydia infections remain a problem. 3rd, the incidence of syphilis, especially in males, is approaching the target of 7/100,000. Congenital syphilis is rising, due both to emphasis on reporting and to a real increase. 4th, the goal of effective diagnosis and treatment of STD by 95% of clinicians is being approached with postgraduate courses and medical school curricula, but this end is probably too ambitious. 5th, all junior and senior high school students should be receiving accurate education about STD. No information on these efforts is available. After these goals were in place, the STD burden has increased phenomenally because of the appearance of AIDS, the maturation of the baby boom generation, and the realization that over 50 different diseases, 13 million cases and 7000 deaths occur annually, excluding AIDS. The cost of treating pelvic inflammatory disease alone is estimated at $2.6 billion annually. Primary prevention is the only feasible priority.

Pipeline corridors through wetlands -- Impacts on plant communities: Little Timber Creek Crossing, Gloucester County, New Jersey. Topical report, August 1991--January 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shem, L.M.; Zimmerman, R.E.; Alsum, S.K.

1994-12-01

The goal of the Gas Research Institute Wetland Corridors Program is to document impacts of existing pipelines on the wetlands they traverse. To accomplish this goal, 12 existing wetland crossings were surveyed. These sites varied in elapsed time since pipeline construction, wetland type, pipeline installation techniques, and right-of-way (ROW) management practices. This report presents results of a survey conducted over the period of August 5--7, 1991, at the Little Timber Creek crossing in Gloucester County, New Jersey, where three pipelines, constructed in 1950, 1960, and 1990, cross the creek and associated wetlands. The old side of the ROW, created bymore » the installation of the 1960 pipeline, was designed to contain a raised peat bed over the 1950 pipeline and an open-water ditch over the 1960 pipeline. The new portion of the ROW, created by installation of the 1990 pipeline, has an open-water ditch over the pipeline (resulting from settling of the backfill) and a raised peat bed (resulting from rebound of compacted peat). Both the old and new ROWs contain dense stands of herbs; the vegetation on the old ROW was more similar to that in the adjacent natural area than was vegetation in the new ROW. The ROW increased species and habitat diversity in the wetlands. It may contribute to the spread of purple loosestrife and affect species sensitive to habitat fragmentation.« less

More than 20 years after re-emerging in the 1990s, diphtheria remains a public health problem in Latvia.

PubMed

Kantsone, Ieva; Lucenko, Irina; Perevoscikovs, Jurijs

2016-12-01

In 1994, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the goal of eliminating diphtheria within the WHO European Region by the year 2000. However, in 1990 an epidemic emerged within the Russian Federation and spread to other countries, including Latvia, by 1994. We describe national surveillance and immunisation coverage data in Latvia from 1994 to 2014 and present historical data from 1946. We defined a laboratory-confirmed case as a clinical case in which toxin-producing Corynebacterium diphtheriae, C. ulcerans or C. pseudotuberculosis was isolated. From 1994 to 2014, 1,515 cases were reported, giving an average annual incidence of 3.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (range 0.1-14.8), with the highest incidence in age groups 5-19 and 40-49 years (4.4 and 4.3/100,000, respectively); 111 deaths were reported, 83.8% cases were laboratory-confirmed. Most cases occurred in unvaccinated adults. To improve disease control a supplementary immunisation campaign for adults was initiated in 1995, and by the end of 1998 national coverage among adults reached 70%, and reached 77% in 2003, but declined to 59% by 2014. Diphtheria remains a problem in Latvia with continued circulation of toxin-producing strains of C. diphtheriae. We recommend to strengthen immunisation to cover adults, as well as the education of health professionals and a serological survey. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2016.

Modeling universal dynamics of cell spreading on elastic substrates.

PubMed

Fan, Houfu; Li, Shaofan

2015-11-01

A three-dimensional (3D) multiscale moving contact line model is combined with a soft matter cell model to study the universal dynamics of cell spreading over elastic substrates. We have studied both the early stage and the late stage cell spreading by taking into account the actin tension effect. In this work, the cell is modeled as an active nematic droplet, and the substrate is modeled as a St. Venant Kirchhoff elastic medium. A complete 3D simulation of cell spreading has been carried out. The simulation results show that the spreading area versus spreading time at different stages obeys specific power laws, which is in good agreement with experimental data and theoretical prediction reported in the literature. Moreover, the simulation results show that the substrate elasticity may affect force dipole distribution inside the cell. The advantage of this approach is that it combines the hydrodynamics of actin retrograde flow with moving contact line model so that it can naturally include actin tension effect resulting from actin polymerization and actomyosin contraction, and thus it might be capable of simulating complex cellular scale phenomenon, such as cell spreading or even crawling.

Modeling of Rapid Solidification with Undercooling Effect During Droplet Flattening on a Substrate in Coating Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Rajesh Kumar; Patel, Virendra; Kumar, Arvind

2018-02-01

The coating deposit on the substrate in thermal spray coating process develops by solidification of individual molten particle which impacts, flattens and solidifies on the surface of the substrate. Droplet flattening and solidification typically involves rapid cooling. In this paper, a model for non-equilibrium rapid solidification of a molten droplet spreading onto a substrate is presented. Transient flow during droplet impact and its subsequent spreading is considered using the volume of fluid surface tracking method which was fully coupled with the rapid solidification model. The rapid solidification model includes undercooling, nucleation, interface tracking, non-equilibrium solidification kinetics and combined heat transfer and fluid flow as required to treat a non-stagnant splat formed from droplet flattening. The model is validated with the literature results on stagnant splats. Subsequently, using the model the characteristics of the rapidly solidifying interface for non-stagnant splat, such as interface velocity and interface temperature, are described and the effect of undercooling and interfacial heat transfer coefficient are highlighted. In contrast to the stagnant splat, the non-stagnant splat considered in this study displays interesting features in the rapidly solidifying interface. These are attributed to droplet thinning and droplet recoiling that occur during the droplet spreading process.

Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

Constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment: five decades of experience.

PubMed

Vymazal, Jan

2011-01-01

The first experiments on the use of wetland plants to treat wastewaters were carried out in the early 1950s by Dr. Käthe Seidel in Germany and the first full-scale systems were put into operation during the late 1960s. Since then, the subsurface systems have been commonly used in Europe while free water surface systems have been more popular in North America and Australia. During the 1970s and 1980s, the information on constructed wetland technology spread slowly. But since the 1990 s the technology has become international, facilitated by exchange among scientists and researchers around the world. Because of the need for more effective removal of ammonia and total nitrogen, during the 1990 s and 2000s vertical and horizontal flow constructed wetlands were combined to complement each other to achieve higher treatment efficiency. Today, constructed wetlands are recognized as a reliable wastewater treatment technology and they represent a suitable solution for the treatment of many types of wastewater.

Changes in water supply in Alpine regions due to glacier retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelto, Mauri S.

1992-06-01

In the late 1970s global temperature rose abruptly, and between 1977 and 1990 has averaged 0.4 °C above the 1940-76 mean. In 1980, 50% of the the alpine glaciers observed in the Swiss Alps, Peruvian Andes, Norwegian Coast Range, Northern Caucasus and Washington's North Cascades were advancing. By 1990 in response to the warming only 15% were still advancing. During the peak non-glacier snow melt period glaciers are unsaturated aquifers soaking up and holding meltwater for the first two-six weeks of the melt season. This storage acts as a buffer for spring snow melt flooding, and spreads the peak spring flow over a longer period. In the late summer glaciers buffer low flow periods by providing large volumes of meltwater. As glaciers retreat the amount of water they can store decreases raising spring flood danger and the areal extend exposed for late summer meltwater generation decreases, thus reducing late summer flow.

Monitoring the transformation of Yogyakarta’s urban form using remote sensing and Geographic Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozano, B.; Yan, W.

2018-04-01

Urban form transformation can be seen as the results of urbanization spatially, where the land changed into an urbanized one. Monitoring its changes, however, require many human and financial resources. Accordingly, this research aims to identify urban form transformation using GIS/remote sensing and its spatial implications to the peri-urban area. In order to analyze the land cover changes, this research uses multispectral images from 1990-2016 for built-up extraction using New Built Up Index (NBUI) analysis and population data 1996-2015 combined with primary data from the respondents and key informants. Based on the analysis, it is seen that the compacted Yogyakarta Urban Area scattered predominantly to the Northern part of its periphery with the increase of urban area from 21.19% in 1990 to 50.91% in 2017. While this urbanization is an on-going process, the population of urban core showed a de-concentration phenomenon in 2015, spreading to its periphery causing some negative implications to the peri-urban area.

Evaluation of models proposed for the 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peddie, N.W.

1992-01-01

The 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) comprises a definitive main-field model for 1985.0, a main-field model for 1990.0, and a forecast secular-variation model for the period 1990-1995. The five 1985.0 main-field models and five 1990.0 main-field models that were proposed have been evaluated by comparing them with one another, with magnetic observatory data, and with Project MAGNET aerial survey data. The comparisons indicate that the main-field models proposed by IZMIRAN, and the secular-variation model proposed jointly by the British Geological Survey and the US Naval Oceanographic Office, should be assigned relatively lower weight in the derivation of the new IGRF models. -Author

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network.

PubMed

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Louisiana Literacy Forum 1990. Proceedings of a Statewide Conference on Literacy Theory and Practice (Baton Rouge, Louisiana, April 20-21, 1990).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sartisky, Michael, Ed.; Dennis, Thomas A., Ed.

This report contains the proceedings of a public forum held to explore and exchange definitions and theories of literacy and to present examples of successful literacy programs in Louisiana in 1990. The following presentations are included: "Conference Welcome" (Patti Roemer); "Conference Introduction" (Michael Sartisky);…

Community ecology neutral models and the topology of connectivity

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will tie together two threads of past research. The first thread is research on biodiversity starting in the 1990s with the Biodiversity Research consortium initiated by EPA and the US Forest Service, and including the US Fish and Wildlife Service Gap Analysis ...

Food Cravings Consume Limited Cognitive Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika; Grigg, Megan

2008-01-01

Using Tiffany's (1990) cognitive model of drug use and craving as a theoretical basis, the present experiments investigated whether cravings for food expend limited cognitive resources. Cognitive performance was assessed by simple reaction time (Experiment 1) and an established measure of working memory capacity, the operation span task…

Characterizing super-spreading in microblog: An epidemic-based information propagation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yu; Wang, Bai; Wu, Bin; Shang, Suiming; Zhang, Yunlei; Shi, Chuan

2016-12-01

As the microblogging services are becoming more prosperous in everyday life for users on Online Social Networks (OSNs), it is more favorable for hot topics and breaking news to gain more attraction very soon than ever before, which are so-called "super-spreading events". In the information diffusion process of these super-spreading events, messages are passed on from one user to another and numerous individuals are influenced by a relatively small portion of users, a.k.a. super-spreaders. Acquiring an awareness of super-spreading phenomena and an understanding of patterns of wide-ranged information propagations benefits several social media data mining tasks, such as hot topic detection, predictions of information propagation, harmful information monitoring and intervention. Taking into account that super-spreading in both information diffusion and spread of a contagious disease are analogous, in this study, we build a parameterized model, the SAIR model, based on well-known epidemic models to characterize super-spreading phenomenon in tweet information propagation accompanied with super-spreaders. For the purpose of modeling information diffusion, empirical observations on a real-world Weibo dataset are statistically carried out. Both the steady-state analysis on the equilibrium and the validation on real-world Weibo dataset of the proposed model are conducted. The case study that validates the proposed model shows that the SAIR model is much more promising than the conventional SIR model in characterizing a super-spreading event of information propagation. In addition, numerical simulations are carried out and discussed to discover how sensitively the parameters affect the information propagation process.

Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

2018-04-01

Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

Behaviors of susceptible-infected epidemics on scale-free networks with identical infectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tao; Liu, Jian-Guo; Bai, Wen-Jie; Chen, Guanrong; Wang, Bing-Hong

2006-11-01

In this paper, we propose a susceptible-infected model with identical infectivity, in which, at every time step, each node can only contact a constant number of neighbors. We implemented this model on scale-free networks, and found that the infected population grows in an exponential form with the time scale proportional to the spreading rate. Furthermore, by numerical simulation, we demonstrated that the targeted immunization of the present model is much less efficient than that of the standard susceptible-infected model. Finally, we investigate a fast spreading strategy when only local information is available. Different from the extensively studied path-finding strategy, the strategy preferring small-degree nodes is more efficient than that preferring large-degree nodes. Our results indicate the existence of an essential relationship between network traffic and network epidemic on scale-free networks.

Rapid expansion of the invasive oyster Crassostrea gigas at its northern distribution limit in Europe: Naturally dispersed or introduced?

PubMed Central

Anglès d’Auriac, Marc B.; Norling, Pia; Lapègue, Sylvie; Staalstrøm, André; Hjermann, Dag Ø.; Thaulow, Jens

2017-01-01

The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, was introduced to Europe for aquaculture purposes, and has had a rapid and unforeseen northward expansion in northern Europe. The recent dramatic increase in number of C. gigas populations along the species’ northern distribution limit has questioned the efficiency of Skagerrak as a dispersal barrier for transport and survival of larvae. We investigated the genetic connectivity and possible spreading patterns between Pacific oyster populations on the southern Norwegian coast (4 localities) and Swedish and Danish populations by means of DNA microsatellite analysis of adult oysters, and by simulating larvae drift. In the simulations we used a 3D oceanographic model to explore the influence of recent climate change (1990–2010) on development, survival, and successful spreading of Danish and Swedish Pacific oyster larvae to Norwegian coastal waters. The simulations indicated adequate temperature conditions for development, survival, and settlement of larvae across the Skagerrak in warm years since 2000. However, microsatellite genotyping revealed genetic differences between the Norwegian populations, and between the Norwegian populations and the Swedish and Danish populations, the latter two populations being more similar. This patchwork pattern of genetic dissimilarity among the Norwegian populations points towards multiple local introduction routes rather than the commonly assumed unidirectional entry of larvae drifted from Denmark and Sweden. Alternative origins of introduction and implications for management, such as forecasting and possible mitigation actions, are discussed. PMID:28486520

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

On the modeling of epidemics under the influence of risk perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lillo, S.; Fioriti, G.; Prioriello, M. L.

An epidemic spreading model is presented in the framework of the kinetic theory of active particles. The model is characterized by the influence of risk perception which can reduce the diffusion of infection. The evolution of the system is modeled through nonlinear interactions, whose output is described by stochastic games. The results of numerical simulations are discussed for different initial conditions.

Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections.

PubMed

Madsen, Marianne Sloth; Langen, Peter L; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

2017-11-28

Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere.

Birth-jump processes and application to forest fire spotting.

PubMed

Hillen, T; Greese, B; Martin, J; de Vries, G

2015-01-01

Birth-jump models are designed to describe population models for which growth and spatial spread cannot be decoupled. A birth-jump model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation. We present two different derivations of this equation, one based on a random walk approach and the other based on a two-compartmental reaction-diffusion model. In the case that the redistribution kernels are highly concentrated, we show that the integro-differential equation can be approximated by a reaction-diffusion equation, in which the proliferation rate contributes to both the diffusion term and the reaction term. We completely solve the corresponding critical domain size problem and the minimal wave speed problem. Birth-jump models can be applied in many areas in mathematical biology. We highlight an application of our results in the context of forest fire spread through spotting. We show that spotting increases the invasion speed of a forest fire front.

Stability of an SAIRS alcoholism model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Hong; Liu, Ying-Ping; Huo, Hai-Feng

2017-05-01

A new SAIRS alcoholism model with birth and death on complex heterogeneous networks is proposed. The total population of our model is partitioned into four compartments: the susceptible individual, the light problem alcoholic, the heavy problem alcoholic and the recovered individual. The spread of alcoholism threshold R0 is calculated by the next generation matrix method. When R0 < 1, the alcohol free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, then the alcoholics will disappear. When R0 > 1, the alcoholism equilibrium is global attractivity, then the number of alcoholics will remain stable and alcoholism will become endemic. Furthermore, the modified SAIRS alcoholism model on weighted contact network is introduced. Dynamical behavior of the modified model is also studied. Numerical simulations are also presented to verify and extend theoretical results. Our results show that it is very important to treat alcoholics to control the spread of the alcoholism.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2012-01-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885-1915 and 1960-1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10-90 and 25-75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781-1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960-1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701-1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960-1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960-1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960-1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

Modeling Archean Subduction Initiation from Continental Spreading with a Free-Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, A.; Thielmann, M.; Golabek, G.

2017-12-01

Earth is the only planet known to have plate tectonics, however the onset of plate tectonics and Earth's early tectonic environment are highly uncertain. Modern plate tectonics are characterized by the sinking of dense lithosphere at subduction zones; however this process may not have been feasible if Earth's interior was hotter in the Archean, resulting in thicker and more buoyant oceanic lithosphere than observed at present [van Hunen and van den Berg, 2008]. Previous studies have proposed gravitational spreading of early continents at passive margins as a mechanism to trigger early episodes of plate subduction using numerical simulations with a free-slip upper boundary condition [Rey et al., 2014]. This study utilizes 2D thermo-mechanical numerical experiments using the finite element code MVEP2 [Kaus, 2010; Thielmann et al., 2014] to investigate the viability of this mechanism for subduction initiation in an Archean mantle for both free-slip and free-surface models. Radiogenic heating, strain weakening, and eclogitization were systematically implemented to determine critical factors for modeling subduction initiation. In free-slip models, results show episodes of continent spreading and subduction initiation of oceanic lithosphere for low limiting yield stresses (100-150 MPa) and increasing continent width with no dependency on radiogenic heating, strain weakening, or eclogitization. For models with a free-surface, subduction initiation was observed at low limiting yield stresses (100-225 MPa) with increasing continent width and only in models with eclogitization. Initial lithospheric stress states were studied as a function of density and viscosity ratios between continent and oceanic lithosphere, and results indicate the magnitude of lithospheric stresses increases with increasing continental buoyancy. This work suggests continent spreading may trigger episodes of subduction in models with a free-surface with critical factors being low limiting yield stresses and eclogitization.

Global and local threshold in a metapopulational SEIR model with quarantine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, Marcelo F. C.; Rossi, Luca; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Vespignani, Alessandro

2013-03-01

Diseases which have the possibility of transmission before the onset of symptoms pose a challenging threat to healthcare since it is hard to track spreaders and implement quarantine measures. More precisely, one main concerns regarding pandemic spreading of diseases is the prediction-and eventually control-of local outbreaks that will trigger a global invasion of a particular disease. We present a metapopulation disease spreading model with transmission from both symptomatic and asymptomatic agents and analyze the role of quarantine measures and mobility processes between subpopulations. We show that, depending on the disease parameters, it is possible to separate in the parameter space the local and global thresholds and study the system behavior as a function of the fraction of asymptomatic transmissions. This means that it is possible to have a range of parameters values where although we do not achieve local control of the outbreak it is possible to control the global spread of the disease. We validate the analytic picture in data-driven model that integrates commuting, air traffic flow and detailed information about population size and structure worldwide. Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems (MoBS)

[Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

PubMed

Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

2014-07-01

As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of construction land use.

"Happier than Ever to Be Exactly What He Was": Reflections on, "Shrek," Fiona and the Magic Mirrors of Commodity Culture,

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Lewis

2014-01-01

This article compares the models of subjectivity and identity in William Steig's 1990 picture book "Shrek!" and in DreamWorks' "Shrek" films. Steig presented his ogre hero as a model of the crises of subjectivity all children must face, and then reassured readers by showing how even a hideous figure such as…

Cohorts, Communities of Inquiry, and Course Delivery Methods: UTC Best Practices in Learning--The Hybrid Learning Community Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rausch, David W.; Crawford, Elizabeth K.

2012-01-01

From the early 1990s to present, the practice of cohort-based learning has been on the rise in colleges, universities, organizations, and even some K-12 programs across the nation. This type of learning model uses the power of the interpersonal relationships to enhance the learning process and provide additional support to the cohort members as…

Computational prediction of strain-dependent diffusion of transcription factors through the cell nucleus.

PubMed

Nava, Michele M; Fedele, Roberto; Raimondi, Manuela T

2016-08-01

Nuclear spreading plays a crucial role in stem cell fate determination. In previous works, we reported evidence of multipotency maintenance for mesenchymal stromal cells cultured on three-dimensional engineered niche substrates, fabricated via two-photon laser polymerization. We correlated maintenance of multipotency to a more roundish morphology of these cells with respect to those cultured on conventional flat substrates. To interpret these findings, here we present a multiphysics model coupling nuclear strains induced by cell adhesion to passive diffusion across the cell nucleus. Fully three-dimensional reconstructions of cultured cells were developed on the basis of confocal images: in particular, the level of nuclear spreading resulted significantly dependent on the cell localization within the niche architecture. We assumed that the cell diffusivity varies as a function of the local volumetric strain. The model predictions indicate that the higher the level of spreading of the cell, the higher the flux across the nucleus of small solutes such as transcription factors. Our results point toward nuclear spreading as a primary mechanism by which the stem cell translates its shape into a fate decision, i.e., by amplifying the diffusive flow of transcriptional activators into the nucleus.

NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program, 1990, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bannerot, Richard B. (Editor); Goldstein, Stanley H. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The 1990 Johnson Space Center (JSC) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Summer Faculty Fellowship Program was conducted by the University of Houston-University Park and Johnson Space Centers (JSC). A compilation of the final reports on the research projects is presented. The following topics are covered: the Space Shuttle; the Space Station; lunar exploration; mars exploration; spacecraft power supplies; mars rover vehicle; mission planning for the Space Exploration Initiative; instrument calibration standards; a lunar oxygen production plant; optical filters for a hybrid vision system; dynamic structural analysis; lunar bases; pharmacodynamics of scopolamine; planetary spacecraft cost modeling; and others.

A genomic portrait of the emergence, evolution, and global spread of a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pandemic

PubMed Central

Holden, Matthew T.G.; Hsu, Li-Yang; Kurt, Kevin; Weinert, Lucy A.; Mather, Alison E.; Harris, Simon R.; Strommenger, Birgit; Layer, Franziska; Witte, Wolfgang; de Lencastre, Herminia; Skov, Robert; Westh, Henrik; Žemličková, Helena; Coombs, Geoffrey; Kearns, Angela M.; Hill, Robert L.R.; Edgeworth, Jonathan; Gould, Ian; Gant, Vanya; Cooke, Jonathan; Edwards, Giles F.; McAdam, Paul R.; Templeton, Kate E.; McCann, Angela; Zhou, Zhemin; Castillo-Ramírez, Santiago; Feil, Edward J.; Hudson, Lyndsey O.; Enright, Mark C.; Balloux, Francois; Aanensen, David M.; Spratt, Brian G.; Fitzgerald, J. Ross; Parkhill, Julian; Achtman, Mark; Bentley, Stephen D.; Nübel, Ulrich

2013-01-01

The widespread use of antibiotics in association with high-density clinical care has driven the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria that are adapted to thrive in hospitalized patients. Of particular concern are globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones that cause outbreaks and epidemics associated with health care. The most rapidly spreading and tenacious health-care-associated clone in Europe currently is EMRSA-15, which was first detected in the UK in the early 1990s and subsequently spread throughout Europe and beyond. Using phylogenomic methods to analyze the genome sequences for 193 S. aureus isolates, we were able to show that the current pandemic population of EMRSA-15 descends from a health-care-associated MRSA epidemic that spread throughout England in the 1980s, which had itself previously emerged from a primarily community-associated methicillin-sensitive population. The emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in this EMRSA-15 subclone in the English Midlands during the mid-1980s appears to have played a key role in triggering pandemic spread, and occurred shortly after the first clinical trials of this drug. Genome-based coalescence analysis estimated that the population of this subclone over the last 20 yr has grown four times faster than its progenitor. Using comparative genomic analysis we identified the molecular genetic basis of 99.8% of the antimicrobial resistance phenotypes of the isolates, highlighting the potential of pathogen genome sequencing as a diagnostic tool. We document the genetic changes associated with adaptation to the hospital environment and with increasing drug resistance over time, and how MRSA evolution likely has been influenced by country-specific drug use regimens. PMID:23299977

Fast calculation of the line-spread-function by transversal directions decoupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parravicini, Jacopo; Tartara, Luca; Hasani, Elton; Tomaselli, Alessandra

2016-07-01

We propose a simplified method to calculate the optical spread function of a paradigmatic system constituted by a pupil-lens with a line-shaped illumination (‘line-spread-function’). Our approach is based on decoupling the two transversal directions of the beam and treating the propagation by means of the Fourier optics formalism. This requires simpler calculations with respect to the more usual Bessel-function-based method. The model is discussed and compared with standard calculation methods by carrying out computer simulations. The proposed approach is found to be much faster than the Bessel-function-based one (CPU time ≲ 5% of the standard method), while the results of the two methods present a very good mutual agreement.

Impact of prenatal technologies on the sex ratio in India: an overview.

PubMed

Madan, Kamlesh; Breuning, Martijn H

2014-06-01

The fact that techniques of prenatal diagnosis are used in India and China to selectively eliminate females is widely known. It has been extensively reported in the international media and in scientific publications since the 1990s. The publication of the Census of India 2011 shows that the ratio of girls to boys below the age of 6 years continues to decline at an alarming rate. Following that publication, this topic has again received international attention. The aim of this article is to better inform the human genetics community of the magnitude of this practice and its consequences in India.In this overview, we examine the impact of prenatal technology on the sex ratio in India. We present facts and figures from the Census of India and other publications that show that the practice is wide spread throughout India, in urban and rural areas, among the rich and the poor, and among the educated and the illiterate. We also briefly discuss the possible causes, consequences, and solutions.

Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeno, Yoshiharu

2010-11-01

Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network and reveal the transmission parameters which govern the stochastic spreads over the network from a dataset on an infectious disease outbreak in the early growth phase. Populations in a combination of epidemiological compartment models and a meta-population network model are described by stochastic differential equations. Probability density functions are derived from the equations and used for the maximal likelihood estimation of the topology and parameters. The method is tested with computationally synthesized datasets and the WHO dataset on the SARS outbreak.

Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are weak, especially when more stringent conditions are imposed (i.e. when T is very high), except at the monthly scale.

Microstructural-Scale Model for Surfaces Spreading of Intergranular Corrosion in Sensitized Stainless Steels and Aluminum-Magnesium (AA5XXX) Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Swati

Components from AA5XXX (Al-Mg alloys with more than 3 wt% Mg) alloys are X attractive due to availability of low cost, high strength to weight ratio and good weldability. Therefore, these alloys have potential applications in Naval ships. However, these alloys become susceptible to IGC (intergranular corrosion) due to beta-phase precipitation due to improper heat treatment or inadvertent thermal exposure. Stainless steels may also become susceptible due to carbide precipitation and chromium depletion on grain boundaries. IGC susceptibility depends on the interplay between the metallurgical conditions, electrochemical conditions, and chemical conditions. Specific combinations cause IGC while others do not. The objective of this study is to investigate the conditions which bring about surface spreading of IGC in these alloy classes. To accomplish this goal, a microstructure scale model was developed with experimental inputs to understand the 2-D IGC spreading in stainless steels and AA5XXX alloys. The conditions strongly affecting IGC spreading were elucidated. Upon natural and artificial aging, the stainless steels become susceptible to intergranular corrosion because of chromium depletion in the grain boundaries. After aging Al-Mg (AA5XXX) alloys show susceptibility due to the precipitation of the beta-phase (Al3Mg7) in the grain boundaries. Chromium depleted grain boundaries in stainless steels are anodically more active as compared to the interior of the grains. (3-phase rich grain boundaries have lower OCP (open circuit potential) and pitting potentials as compared to the Al-Mg solid solutions. A new approach to modeling the IGC surface spreading in polycrystalline materials that is presented. This model is the first to couple several factors into one granular scale model that illustrates the way in which they interact and IGC occurs. It sheds new information on conditions which cause IGC spreading in two alloy classes and describes a new theory for the critical potential associated with IGC. The outcomes from this contribute to ways to advance the goal of corrosion resistant computational design of alloys, guiding mitigation strategies for suppressing IGC in existing alloys, and to damage prognosis aimed at predicting damage and structural integrity.

Modelling of air flow supply in a room at variable regime by using both K - E and spalart - allmaras turbulent model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korbut, Vadim; Voznyak, Orest; Sukholova, Iryna; Myroniuk, Khrystyna

2017-12-01

The abstract is to The article is devoted to the decision of actual task of air distribution efficiency increasing with the help of swirl and spread air jets to provide normative parameters of air in the production apartments. The mathematical model of air supply with swirl and spread air jets in that type of apartments is improved. It is shown that for reachin of air distribution maximal efficiency it is necessary to supply air by air jets, that intensively extinct before entering into a working area. Simulation of air flow performed with the help of CFD FLUENT (Ansys FLUENT). Calculations of the equation by using one-parameter model of turbulence Spalart-Allmaras are presented. The graphical and the analytical dependences on the basis of the conducted experimental researches, which can be used in subsequent engineering calculations, are shown out. Dynamic parameters of air flow that is created due to swirl and spread air jets at their leakage at variable regime and creation of dynamic microclimate in a room has been determined. Results of experimental investigations of air supply into the room by air distribution device which creates swirl air jets for creation more intensive turbulization air flow in the room are presented. Obtained results of these investigations give possibility to realize engineer calculations of air distribution with swirl air jets. The results of theoretical researches of favourable influence of dynamic microclimate to the man are presented. When using dynamic microclimate, it's possible to decrease conditioning and ventilation system expenses. Human organism reacts favourably on short lasting deviations from the rationed parameters of air environment.

Upward And Downward Flame Spreading And Extinction In Partial Gravity Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sacksteder, Kurt R.; Feier, Ioan I.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Kumar, Amit; T'ien, James S.

2003-01-01

The premise of this research effort has been to begin exploring the gap in the literature between studies of material flammability and flame spread phenomena in normal-gravity and those conducted in the microgravity environment, with or without forced flows. From a fundamental point of view, flame spreading in upward (concurrent) buoyant flow is considerably different from concurrent forced flow. The flow accelerates throughout the length of the buoyant flame bringing the streamlines and the flame closer to the fuel surface and strengthening the interaction between the flame and fuel. Forced flows are diverted around the flame and away from the fuel surface, except where the flow might be constrained by a finite duct. The differences may be most clearly felt as the atmospheric conditions, viz. pressure or oxygen content, approach the flammability limit. From a more practical point of view, flame spreading and material flammability behavior have not been studied under the partial gravity conditions that are the natural state in space exploration destinations such as the Moon and Mars. This effort constitutes the beginning of the research needed to engineer fire safety provisions for such future missions. In this program we have performed partial-gravity experiments (from 0.1 to 1 g/g(sub Earth)) considering both upward and downward flame spread over thin solid fuels aboard the NASA KC-135 aircraft. In those tests, the atmospheric pressure and the fuel sample width were varied. Steady flame spread rates and approximate extinction boundaries were determined. Flame images were recorded using video cameras and two-dimensional fuel surface temperature distributions were determined using an IR camera. These results are available, and complement our earlier work in downward spread in partial gravity varying oxygen content. In conjunction with the experiment, three-dimensional models of flame spreading in buoyant flow have been developed. Some of the computed results on upward spreading have been presented. A derivative three-dimensional model of downward spreading has been developed. It is currently being used to evaluate the standard limiting oxygen index (LOI) measuring device and its potential performance in different gravity levels.

Delta Pi Epsilon National Research Conference Proceedings (Columbus, Ohio, November 15-17, 1990).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delta Pi Epsilon Society, Little Rock, AR.

These conference proceedings consist of 25 presentations: "Conducting Experimental Research" (Miller) "Conducting Research Overseas: Some Thoughts Based upon Experiences in the United Kingdom" (Scott); "Applying Research to the Classroom" (Wayne); "DACUM: A Competency-Based Curriculum Tool" (Norton); "A Doctoral Research Model" (Bronner); "The…

Simulating and Analyzing Long-Term Changes in Emissions, Air Quality, Aerosol Feedback Effects and Human Health

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation covers work performed by the authors to characterize changes in emissions over the 1990 – 2010 time period, quantify the effects of these emission changes on air quality and aerosol/radiation feedbacks using both observations and model simulations, and fin...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations over the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emis...

Computational And Experimental Studies Of Three-Dimensional Flame Spread Over Liquid Fuel Pools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Howard D. (Technical Monitor); Cai, Jinsheng; Liu, Feng; Sirignano, William A.; Miller, Fletcher J.

2003-01-01

Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) studied ignition and flame spread above liquid fuels initially below the flashpoint temperature by using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code that solves the coupled equations of both the gas and the liquid phases. Pulsating flame spread was attributed to the establishment of a gas-phase recirculation cell that forms just ahead of the flame leading edge because of the opposing effect of buoyancy-driven flow in the gas phase and the thermocapillary-driven flow in the liquid phase. Schiller and Sirignano (1996) extended the same study to include flame spread with forced opposed flow in the gas phase. A transitional flow velocity was found above which an originally uniform spreading flame pulsates. The same type of gas-phase recirculation cell caused by the combination of forced opposed flow, buoyancy-driven flow, and thermocapillary-driven concurrent flow was responsible for the pulsating flame spread. Ross and Miller (1998) and Miller and Ross (1998) performed experimental work that corroborates the computational findings of Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) and Schiller and Sirignano (1996). Cai, Liu, and Sirignano (2002) developed a more comprehensive three-dimensional model and computer code for the flame spread problem. Many improvements in modeling and numerical algorithms were incorporated in the three-dimensional model. Pools of finite width and length were studied in air channels of prescribed height and width. Significant three-dimensional effects around and along the pool edge were observed. The same three-dimensional code is used to study the detailed effects of pool depth, pool width, opposed air flow velocity, and different levels of air oxygen concentration (Cai, Liu, and Sirignano, 2003). Significant three-dimensional effects showing an unsteady wavy flame front for cases of wide pool width are found for the first time in computation, after being noted previously by experimental observers (Ross and Miller, 1999). Regions of uniform and pulsating flame spread are mapped for the flow conditions of pool depth, opposed flow velocity, initial pool temperature, and air oxygen concentration under both normal and microgravity conditions. Details can be found in Cai et al. (2002, 2003). Experimental results recently performed at NASA Glenn of flame spread across a wide, shallow pool as a function of liquid temperature are also presented here.

Ship viscous flow: A report on the 1990 SSPA-IIHR Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Virendra C.; Larsson, Lars

1992-01-01

To assess the state of the art in ship viscous flow computation a Workshop was organized in 1990 by three organizations: SSPA Maritime Consulting AB, Chalmers University of Technology, and the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research. Two test cases were specified by the organizers and sent out to all interested research groups, which were asked to submit results in a prescribed format. In September 1990 a meeting was held at Chalmers University of Technology. All results had then been collected and presented in a common format, and the theories based on responses to a questionnaire sent out earlier. During the meeting, each research group was first given the opportunity to briefly introduce their method and results. Thereafter, a considerable time was spent on general discussions on the performance of the different methods considering the differences in the underlying theories. Specific items that were addressed were grid generation, governing equations, boundary conditions, turbulence modelling, and numerical methods. Practical aspects of the results, for instance from the point of view of propeller design, were also discussed. The Workshop Proceedings contain a description of the participating methods, and the results of both test cases. In the present paper, a summary of the Workshop and its results is presented.

Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

PubMed

Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

2016-06-01

This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

[Population mobility and HIV/AIDS in Central America and Mexico].

PubMed

Leyva-Flores, René; Aracena-Genao, Belkis; Serván-Mori, Edson

2014-09-01

Estimate the magnitude of the association between population mobility, measured by net migration rate (NMR), and HIV prevalence in Central America and Mexico. Using time series models, based on public information from UNAIDS, UNDP, ECLAC, and the World Bank for the period 1990-2009, this association was studied in individuals aged 15-49 years, and adjusted for socioeconomic factors (education, unemployment, life expectancy, and income). NMR was negative in all countries except Costa Rica and Panama. Unadjusted results of the model show a positive association and that NMR can explain 6% of recorded HIV prevalence. When socioeconomic cofactors are included by country (education, health, and income), the magnitude increases to 9% (P<0.05). NMR, even when adjusted for socioeconomic factors, explains some of recorded HIV prevalence. All socioeconomic indicators show improvements in Central America and Mexico, although large gaps persist among countries. The modest association observed between population mobility and HIV prevalence is conditioned by the socioeconomic status of the countries studied. Information availability limited the study's ability to establish the existence of this association with greater certainty. Accordingly, based on available information, it is not possible to affirm that migration plays a key role in the spread of HIV.

Propagation dynamics for a spatially periodic integrodifference competition model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means different species may have different spreading speeds. We show that the model system admits a single spreading speed, and it coincides with the minimal wave speed of the spatially periodic traveling waves. A set of sufficient conditions for linear determinacy of the spreading speed is also given.

National health expenditures, 1990

PubMed Central

Levit, Katharine R.; Lazenby, Helen C.; Cowan, Cathy A.; Letsch, Suzanne W.

1991-01-01

During 1990, health expenditures as a share of gross national product rose to 12.2 percent, up from 11.6 percent in 1989. This dramatic increase is the second largest increase in the past three decades. The national health expenditure estimates presented in this article document rapidly rising health care costs and provide a context for understanding the health care financing crisis facing the Nation today. The 1990 national health expenditures incorporate the most recently available data. They differ from historical estimates presented in the preceding article. The length of time and complicated process of producing projections required use of 1989 national health expenditures—data available prior to the completion of the 1990 estimates presented here. PMID:10114934

The Terry-Wiseman Security Policy Model and Examples of Its Use

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

Wiseman Security Policy Model and Examples of Its Use Author: C L Harrold Date: March 1990 Abstract This paper presents a model of security for computer ...Evolution of the Model 7. Summary and References Annex: An Overviev , of the Z N-,,tion Ace5sston For N?.1S (tRA&1DTIC TM-, [ U mr, ),inced El ,v l I...a computer . The files, objects or register locations in which the information may be stored are modelled by the black boxes. The robots model the

Exponential quantum spreading in a class of kicked rotor systems near high-order resonances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hailong; Wang, Jiao; Guarneri, Italo; Casati, Giulio; Gong, Jiangbin

2013-11-01

Long-lasting exponential quantum spreading was recently found in a simple but very rich dynamical model, namely, an on-resonance double-kicked rotor model [J. Wang, I. Guarneri, G. Casati, and J. B. Gong, Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.107.234104 107, 234104 (2011)]. The underlying mechanism, unrelated to the chaotic motion in the classical limit but resting on quasi-integrable motion in a pseudoclassical limit, is identified for one special case. By presenting a detailed study of the same model, this work offers a framework to explain long-lasting exponential quantum spreading under much more general conditions. In particular, we adopt the so-called “spinor” representation to treat the kicked-rotor dynamics under high-order resonance conditions and then exploit the Born-Oppenheimer approximation to understand the dynamical evolution. It is found that the existence of a flat band (or an effectively flat band) is one important feature behind why and how the exponential dynamics emerges. It is also found that a quantitative prediction of the exponential spreading rate based on an interesting and simple pseudoclassical map may be inaccurate. In addition to general interests regarding the question of how exponential behavior in quantum systems may persist for a long time scale, our results should motivate further studies toward a better understanding of high-order resonance behavior in δ-kicked quantum systems.

Theory of rumour spreading in complex social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekovee, M.; Moreno, Y.; Bianconi, G.; Marsili, M.

2007-01-01

We introduce a general stochastic model for the spread of rumours, and derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the model on complex social networks (in particular, those mediated by the Internet). We use analytical and numerical solutions of these equations to examine the threshold behaviour and dynamics of the model on several models of such networks: random graphs, uncorrelated scale-free networks and scale-free networks with assortative degree correlations. We show that in both homogeneous networks and random graphs the model exhibits a critical threshold in the rumour spreading rate below which a rumour cannot propagate in the system. In the case of scale-free networks, on the other hand, this threshold becomes vanishingly small in the limit of infinite system size. We find that the initial rate at which a rumour spreads is much higher in scale-free networks than in random graphs, and that the rate at which the spreading proceeds on scale-free networks is further increased when assortative degree correlations are introduced. The impact of degree correlations on the final fraction of nodes that ever hears a rumour, however, depends on the interplay between network topology and the rumour spreading rate. Our results show that scale-free social networks are prone to the spreading of rumours, just as they are to the spreading of infections. They are relevant to the spreading dynamics of chain emails, viral advertising and large-scale information dissemination algorithms on the Internet.

Spreading dynamics in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

2013-12-01

Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

The effects of global awareness on the spreading of epidemics in multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, Haijuan

2018-02-01

It is increasingly recognized that understanding the complex interplay patterns between epidemic spreading and human behavioral is a key component of successful infection control efforts. In particular, individuals can obtain the information about epidemics and respond by altering their behaviors, which can affect the spreading dynamics as well. Besides, because the existence of herd-like behaviors, individuals are very easy to be influenced by the global awareness information. Here, in this paper, we propose a global awareness controlled spreading model (GACS) to explore the interplay between the coupled dynamical processes. Using the global microscopic Markov chain approach, we obtain the analytical results for the epidemic thresholds, which shows a high accuracy by comparison with lots of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, considering other classical models used to describe the coupled dynamical processes, including the local awareness controlled contagion spreading (LACS) model, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Unaware-Aware-Unaware (SIS-UAU) model and the single layer occasion, we make a detailed comparisons between the GACS with them. Although the comparisons and results depend on the parameters each model has, the GACS model always shows a strong restrain effects on epidemic spreading process. Our results give us a better understanding of the coupled dynamical processes and highlights the importance of considering the spreading of global awareness in the control of epidemics.

Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks.

PubMed

Kim, Kiseong; Lee, Sangyeon; Lee, Doheon; Lee, Kwang Hyung

2017-05-31

Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (β) and recovery rate (γ). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover. We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemic parameters and network parameters and performed the experiment of disease propagation. The simulation result was analyzed to construct a new marker VRTP distribution. We also induced the VRTP formula for three of the network mathematical models. We suggest new marker VRTP (value of recovered on turning point) to describe the coupling between the SIR spreading and the Scale-free (SF) network and observe the aspects of the coupling effects with the various of spreading and network parameters. We also derive the analytic formulation of VRTP in the fully mixed model, the configuration model, and the degree-based model respectively in the mathematical function form for the insights on the relationship between experimental simulation and theoretical consideration. We discover the coupling effect between SIR spreading and SF network through devising novel marker VRTP which reflects the shifting effect and relates to entropy.

Historical perspective and human consequences of Africanized bee stings in the Americas.

PubMed

Ferreira, R S; Almeida, R A M B; Barraviera, S R C S; Barraviera, B

2012-01-01

In 1956, Africanized bees began to spread in the American continent from southern Brazil, where original African bees mated with European bees. A few years later, in 1990, these Africanized bees reached the United States and were found in Texas. Currently, these hybrid bees are found in several North American states and will probably reach the Canadian border in the future. Although the presence of Africanized bees had produced positive effects on Brazilian economy, including improvement in crop pollination and in honey production, turning Brazil into a major exporter, the negative impacts-such as swarming, aggressive behavior, and the ability to mass attack-resulted in serious and fatal envenomation with humans and animals. Victims of bee attacks usually develop a severe envenomation syndrome characterized by the release of a large amount of cytokines [interleukins (IL) IL-1, IL-6, IL-8], and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Subsequently, such cytokines produce an acute inflammatory response that triggers adverse effects on skeletal muscles; bone marrow; hepatic and renal functions; and cardiovascular, central nervous, and immune systems. Finally, the aim of the present review is to study historical characteristics and current status of Africanized bees' spread, the composition of their venom, the impact of the bees on the Brazilian economy and ecology, and clinical aspects of their stings including immune response, and to suggest a protocol for bee sting management since there is no safe and effective antivenom available.

Phylogenetic Analysis of the Latvian HIV-1 Epidemic

PubMed Central

Balode, Dace; Skar, Helena; Mild, Mattias; Kolupajeva, Tatjana; Ferdats, Andris; Rozentale, Baiba; Leitner, Thomas

2012-01-01

Abstract The Latvian HIV-1 outbreak among intravenous drug users (IDUs) in 1997–1998 involved subtype A1. To obtain a more complete picture of the Latvian HIV-1 epidemic, 315 HIV-1-infected patients diagnosed in 1990–2005 representing different transmission groups and geographic regions were phylogenetically characterized using env V3 and gag p17 sequences. Subtypes A1 and B infections were found in 76% and 22% of the patients, respectively. The subtype A1 sequences formed one large cluster, which also included sequences from other parts of the former Soviet Union (FSU), whereas most subtype B sequences formed three distinct clusters. We estimated that subtype A1 was introduced from FSU around 1997 and initially spread explosively among IDUs in Riga. A recent increase of heterosexually infected persons did not form a separate subepidemic, but had multiple interactions with the IDU epidemic. Subtype B was introduced before the collapse of the Soviet Union and primarily has spread among men who have sex with men. PMID:22049908

Mobile Life - Innovation in the Wild

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höök, Kristina

After a decade of work in our research labs on mobile and ubiquitous technology, often formed by the early visions of ubiquitous computing, with the urge to move interaction from the desktop out into the wild, these technologies have now moved out into the world - into the wild. We are in the middle of a second IT-revolution, caused by the spread of mobile and ubiquitous services, in combination with a broad consumer-oriented market pull. The first ITrevolution, the introduction and deployment of Internet and the World Wide Web during the 1990’s, had a major impact on all parts of our society. As mobile, ubiquitous technology now becomes wide-spread, the design and evaluation of mobile services - i.e. information technology that can be accessed and used in virtually any setting - represents an important business arena for the IT- and telecom industry. Together we have to look for a sustainable web of work, leisure and ubiquitous technology we can call the mobile life.

Strike-slip tectonics during rift linkage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagli, C.; Yun, S. H.; Ebinger, C.; Keir, D.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

The kinematics of triple junction linkage and the initiation of transforms in magmatic rifts remain debated. Strain patterns from the Afar triple junction provide tests of current models of how rifts grow to link in area of incipient oceanic spreading. Here we present a combined analysis of seismicity, InSAR and GPS derived strain rate maps to reveal that the plate boundary deformation in Afar is accommodated primarily by extensional tectonics in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rifts, and does not require large rotations about vertical axes (bookshelf faulting). Additionally, models of stress changes and seismicity induced by recent dykes in one sector of the Afar triple junction provide poor fit to the observed strike-slip earthquakes. Instead we explain these patterns as rift-perpendicular shearing at the tips of spreading rifts where extensional strains terminate against less stretched lithosphere. Our results demonstrate that rift-perpendicular strike-slip faulting between rift segments achieves plate boundary linkage during incipient seafloor spreading.

The newfoundland basin - Ocean-continent boundary and Mesozoic seafloor spreading history

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, K. D.

1983-01-01

It is pointed out that over the past 15 years there has been considerable progress in the refinement of predrift fits and seafloor spreading models of the North Atlantic. With the widespread acceptance of these basic models has come increasing interest in resolution of specific paleogeographic and kinematic problems. Two such problems are the initial position of Iberia with respect to North America and the geometry and chronology of early (pre-80 m.y.) relative motions between these two plates. The present investigation is concerned with geophysical data from numerous Bedford Institute/Dalhousie University cruises to the Newfoundland Basin which were undrtaken to determine the location of the ocean-continent boundary (OCB) and the Mesozoic spreading history on the western side. From the examination of magnetic data in the Newfoundland Basin, the OCB east of the Grand Banks is defined as the seaward limit of the 'smooth' magnetic domain which characterizes the surrounding continental shelves. A substantial improvement in Iberia-North America paleographic reconstructions is achieved.

Comparison and validation of point spread models for imaging in natural waters.

PubMed

Hou, Weilin; Gray, Deric J; Weidemann, Alan D; Arnone, Robert A

2008-06-23

It is known that scattering by particulates within natural waters is the main cause of the blur in underwater images. Underwater images can be better restored or enhanced with knowledge of the point spread function (PSF) of the water. This will extend the performance range as well as the information retrieval from underwater electro-optical systems, which is critical in many civilian and military applications, including target and especially mine detection, search and rescue, and diver visibility. A better understanding of the physical process involved also helps to predict system performance and simulate it accurately on demand. The presented effort first reviews several PSF models, including the introduction of a semi-analytical PSF given optical properties of the medium, including scattering albedo, mean scattering angles and the optical range. The models under comparison include the empirical model of Duntley, a modified PSF model by Dolin et al, as well as the numerical integration of analytical forms from Wells, as a benchmark of theoretical results. For experimental results, in addition to that of Duntley, we validate the above models with measured point spread functions by applying field measured scattering properties with Monte Carlo simulations. Results from these comparisons suggest it is sufficient but necessary to have the three parameters listed above to model PSFs. The simplified approach introduced also provides adequate accuracy and flexibility for imaging applications, as shown by examples of restored underwater images.

Estimation of liquefaction-induced lateral spread from numerical modeling and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xianhong

A noncoupled numerical procedure was developed using a scheme of pore water generation that causes shear modulus degradation and shear strength degradation resulting from earthquake cyclic motion. The designed Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua (FLAC) model procedure was tested using the liquefaction-induced lateral spread and ground response for Wildlife and Kobe sites. Sixteen well-documented case histories of lateral spread were reviewed and modeled using the modeling procedure. The dynamic residual strength ratios were back-calculated by matching the predicted displacement with the measured lateral spread, or with the displacement predicted by the Yound et al. model. Statistical analysis on the modeling results and soil properties show that most significant parameters governing the residual strength of the liquefied soil are the SPT blow count, fine content and soil particle size of the lateral spread layer. A regression equation was developed to express the residual strength values with these soil properties. Overall, this research demonstrated that a calibrated numerical model can predict the first order effectiveness of liquefaction-induced lateral spread using relatively simple parameters obtained from routine geotechnical investigation. In addition, the model can be used to plan a soil improvement program for cases where liquefaction remediation is needed. This allows the model to be used for design purposes at bridge approaches structured on liquefiable materials.

Risk of HIV/AIDS in China: subpopulations of special importance

PubMed Central

Qian, Z; Vermund, S; Wang, N

2005-01-01

Objective: To describe the HIV/AIDS epidemic in mainland China. Methods: We review the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the social characteristics and geographic distribution of at-risk groups in China based on published literature and unpublished official data. Results: Injection drug use has been the dominant route for HIV infection in China, and will continue to be a major risk factor with increasing numbers of new drug users and needle sharing. Commercial plasma donation with unhygienic re-infusion of red blood cells was common in rural communities in the early 1990s. While this is unlikely to constitute a major factor for future HIV spread, those already infected represent a formidable treatment challenge. Huge seasonal work migration facilitates disease spread across regions. Many homosexual men have unprotected sex with men, women, or both, and may contract or spread HIV. Though commercial sex workers have contributed to a small proportion of the reported epidemic thus far, flourishing commercial sex is of growing concern and may have a bridging role in transmitting HIV from core groups to the general population. Conclusion: Increasing numbers of sex workers and drug users, internal migration, high risk behaviours, and low condom use suggest a future upward trend for HIV/AIDS and underscore the urgency of scaling up interventions in China. PMID:16326842

Why is CDMA the solution for mobile satellite communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilhousen, Klein S.; Jacobs, Irwin M.; Padovani, Roberto; Weaver, Lindsay A.

1989-01-01

It is demonstrated that spread spectrum Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) systems provide an economically superior solution to satellite mobile communications by increasing the system maximum capacity with respect to single channel per carrier Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) systems. Following the comparative analysis of CDMA and FDMA systems, the design of a model that was developed to test the feasibility of the approach and the performance of a spread spectrum system in a mobile environment. Results of extensive computer simulations as well as laboratory and field tests results are presented.

The effects of radiative heat loss on microgravity flame spread

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fakheri, Ahmad; Olson, Sandra L.

1989-01-01

The effect of radiative heat loss from the surface of a solid material burning in a zero gravity environment in an opposed flow is studied through the use of a numerical model. Radiative heat loss is found to decrease the flame spread rate, the boundary layer thickness, and pyrolysis lengths. Blowoff extinction is predicted to occur at slower opposesd flow velocities than would occur if the radiative loss is not present. The radiative heat fluxes are comparable to the conduction fluxes, indicating the significance of the surface energy loss.

Insights in time dependent cross compartment sensitivities from ensemble simulations with the fully coupled subsurface-land surface-atmosphere model TerrSysMP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schalge, Bernd; Rihani, Jehan; Haese, Barbara; Baroni, Gabriele; Erdal, Daniel; Haefliger, Vincent; Lange, Natascha; Neuweiler, Insa; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Geppert, Gernot; Ament, Felix; Kollet, Stefan; Cirpka, Olaf; Saavedra, Pablo; Han, Xujun; Attinger, Sabine; Kunstmann, Harald; Vereecken, Harry; Simmer, Clemens

2017-04-01

Currently, an integrated approach to simulating the earth system is evolving where several compartment models are coupled to achieve the best possible physically consistent representation. We used the model TerrSysMP, which fully couples subsurface, land surface and atmosphere, in a synthetic study that mimicked the Neckar catchment in Southern Germany. A virtual reality run at a high resolution of 400m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1km for the atmosphere was made. Ensemble runs at a lower resolution (800m for the land surface and subsurface) were also made. The ensemble was generated by varying soil and vegetation parameters and lateral atmospheric forcing among the different ensemble members in a systematic way. It was found that the ensemble runs deviated for some variables and some time periods largely from the virtual reality reference run (the reference run was not covered by the ensemble), which could be related to the different model resolutions. This was for example the case for river discharge in the summer. We also analyzed the spread of model states as function of time and found clear relations between the spread and the time of the year and weather conditions. For example, the ensemble spread of latent heat flux related to uncertain soil parameters was larger under dry soil conditions than under wet soil conditions. Another example is that the ensemble spread of atmospheric states was more influenced by uncertain soil and vegetation parameters under conditions of low air pressure gradients (in summer) than under conditions with larger air pressure gradients in winter. The analysis of the ensemble of fully coupled model simulations provided valuable insights in the dynamics of land-atmosphere feedbacks which we will further highlight in the presentation.

Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

Impacts of climate on shrubland fuels and fire behavior in the Owyhee Basin, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogelmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Hawbaker, T.; Li, Z.

2013-12-01

There is evidence that wildland fire is increasing as a function of global change. However, fire activity is spatially, temporally and ecologically variable across the globe, and our understanding of fire risk and behavior in many ecosystems is limited. After a series of severe fire seasons that occurred during the late 1990's in the western United States, the LANDFIRE program was developed with the goals of providing the fire community with objective spatial fuel data for assessing wildland fire risk. Even with access to the data provided by LANDFIRE, assessing fire behavior in shrublands in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of the western United States has proven especially problematic, in part due to the complex nature of the vegetation, the variable influence of understory vegetation including invasive species (e.g. cheatgrass), and prior fire history events. Climate is undoubtedly playing a major role, affecting the intra- and inter-annual variability in vegetation conditions, which in turn impacts fire behavior. In order to further our understanding of climate-vegetation-fire interactions in shrublands, we initiated a study in the Owyhee Basin, which is located in southwestern Idaho and adjacent Nevada. Our goals include: (1) assessing the relationship between climate and vegetation condition, (2) quantifying the range of temporal variability in grassland and shrubland fuel loads, (3) identifying methods to operationally map the variability in fuel loads, and (4) assessing how the variability in fuel loads affect fire spread simulations. To address these goals, we are using a wide variety of geospatial data, including remotely sensed time-series data sets derived from MODIS and Landsat, and climate data from DAYMET and PRISM. Remotely-sensed information is used to characterize climate-induced temporal variability in primary productivity in the Basin, where fire spread can be extensive after senescence when dry vegetation is added to dead fuel loads. Gridded climate data indicate that this area has become warmer and dryer over the previous three decades. We have also observed that fires are especially prevalent in areas that have high Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in the spring, followed by low NDVI in the summer. At present we are concentrating on the temporally rich MODIS data to map spatial and temporal variability in live fuel loads. To translate NDVI to biomass, we are scaling the range of biomass values using data from the literature. We assume that departure from maximum NDVI, typically occurring during spring, to NDVI values later in the season are related to the proportion of live biomass transferred to dead biomass, which burns more readily than green biomass. Using the FARSITE fire spread model, our initial simulations show that the conversion from live herbaceous fuel to dead fuel increases the burn area by 30% compared with using default static fuel parameters. This indicates that current fuel models underestimate fire spread and areas that could potentially burn. Our study also indicates that a combined remote sensing product with good temporal resolution (MODIS) and spatial resolution (Landsat) is necessary to provide accurate information on the fuel dynamics in shrublands.

LFASE Report: Crustal Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-07-12

uniquely by estimating the smoothest model ( Kappus et. al., 1990). Initial modeling of the travel-time data, using this smoothest model as a starting...Res., 92, 8089-8115, 1987. 5. Kappus , M. E., A. J. Harding, and J. A. Orcutt, A comparison of tau-p transform methods, Geophysics, 55, 1202-1215, 1990

When mountain belts disrupt mantle flow: from natural evidences to numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamato, Philippe; Husson, Laurent; Guillaume, Benjamin

2016-04-01

During the Cenozoic, the number of orogens on Earth increased. This observation readily indicates that in the same time, compression in the lithosphere became gradually more and more important. Here, we show that such mountain belts, at plate boundaries, increasingly obstruct plate tectonics, slowing down and reorienting their motions. In turn, it changes the dynamic and kinematic surface conditions of the underlying flowing mantle, which ultimately modifies the pattern of mantle flow. Such forcing could explain many first order features of Cenozoic plate tectonics and mantle flow. Among others, at lithospheric scale, one can cite the compression of passive margins, the important variations in the rates of spreading at oceanic ridges, the initiation of subductions, or the onset of obductions. In the mantle, such changes in boundary conditions redesign the flow pattern and, consequently, disturb the oceanic lithosphere cooling. In order to test this hypothesis we first present thermo-mechanical numerical models of mantle convection above which a lithosphere is resting on top. Our results show that when collision occurs, the mantle flow is strongly modified, which leads to (i) increasing shear stresses below the lithosphere and (ii) a modification of the convection style. In turn, the transition between a "free" convection (mobile lid) and a "disturbed" convection (stagnant - or sluggish - lid) highly impacts the dynamics of the lithosphere at the surface. Thereby, on the basis of these models and a variety of real examples, we show that on the other side of a lithosphere presenting a collision zone, passive margins become squeezed and can undergo compression, which may ultimately evolve into subduction initiation or obduction. We also show that much further, due to the blocking of the lithosphere, spreading rates decrease at the ridge, which may explain a variety of features such as the low magmatism of ultraslow spreading ridges or the departure of slow spreading ridges from the half-space cooling model.

Connectionist Interaction Information Retrieval.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dominich, Sandor

2003-01-01

Discussion of connectionist views for adaptive clustering in information retrieval focuses on a connectionist clustering technique and activation spreading-based information retrieval model using the interaction information retrieval method. Presents theoretical as well as simulation results as regards computational complexity and includes…

Using HFire for spatial modeling of fire in shrublands

Treesearch

Seth H. Peterson; Marco E. Morais; Jean M. Carlson; Philip E. Dennison; Dar A. Roberts; Max A. Moritz; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

An efficient raster fire-spread model named HFire is introduced. HFire can simulate single-fire events or long-term fire regimes, using the same fire-spread algorithm. This paper describes the HFire algorithm, benchmarks the model using a standard set of tests developed for FARSITE, and compares historical and predicted fire spread perimeters for three southern...

Ecophysiological Response of Managed Loblolly Pine to Changes in Stand Environment

Treesearch

Mary A. Sword; Jim L. Chambers; Dennis A. Gravatt; James D. Haywood; James P. Barnett

1998-01-01

Anticipated shifts in our global climate may expose southern pine ecosystems to such environmental stimuli as elevated carbon dioxide and water and nutrient deficiencies (Hansen et al., 1988; Kirschbaum et al., 1990; Peters, 1990). Global climate change may also increase the degree of stress to which trees are presently exposed (Kirschbaum et al., 1990; Peters, 1990)....

Spreading gossip in social networks.

PubMed

Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

2007-09-01

We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

Spreading gossip in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

2007-09-01

We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

Thrust stand evaluation of engine performance improvement algorithms in an F-15 airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conners, Timothy R.

1992-01-01

Results are presented from the evaluation of the performance seeking control (PSC) optimization algorithm developed by Smith et al. (1990) for F-15 aircraft, which optimizes the quasi-steady-state performance of an F100 derivative turbofan engine for several modes of operation. The PSC algorithm uses onboard software engine model that calculates thrust, stall margin, and other unmeasured variables for use in the optimization. Comparisons are presented between the load cell measurements, PSC onboard model thrust calculations, and posttest state variable model computations. Actual performance improvements using the PSC algorithm are presented for its various modes. The results of using PSC algorithm are compared with similar test case results using the HIDEC algorithm.

Statistical Modelling and Characterization of Experimental mm-Wave Indoor Channels for Future 5G Wireless Communication Networks

PubMed Central

Al-Samman, A. M.; Rahman, T. A.; Azmi, M. H.; Hindia, M. N.; Khan, I.; Hanafi, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents an experimental characterization of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) channels in the 6.5 GHz, 10.5 GHz, 15 GHz, 19 GHz, 28 GHz and 38 GHz frequency bands in an indoor corridor environment. More than 4,000 power delay profiles were measured across the bands using an omnidirectional transmitter antenna and a highly directional horn receiver antenna for both co- and cross-polarized antenna configurations. This paper develops a new path-loss model to account for the frequency attenuation with distance, which we term the frequency attenuation (FA) path-loss model and introduce a frequency-dependent attenuation factor. The large-scale path loss was characterized based on both new and well-known path-loss models. A general and less complex method is also proposed to estimate the cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) factor of close-in reference distance with the XPD (CIX) and ABG with the XPD (ABGX) path-loss models to avoid the computational complexity of minimum mean square error (MMSE) approach. Moreover, small-scale parameters such as root mean square (RMS) delay spread, mean excess (MN-EX) delay, dispersion factors and maximum excess (MAX-EX) delay parameters were used to characterize the multipath channel dispersion. Multiple statistical distributions for RMS delay spread were also investigated. The results show that our proposed models are simpler and more physically-based than other well-known models. The path-loss exponents for all studied models are smaller than that of the free-space model by values in the range of 0.1 to 1.4 for all measured frequencies. The RMS delay spread values varied between 0.2 ns and 13.8 ns, and the dispersion factor values were less than 1 for all measured frequencies. The exponential and Weibull probability distribution models best fit the RMS delay spread empirical distribution for all of the measured frequencies in all scenarios. PMID:27654703

Statistical Modelling and Characterization of Experimental mm-Wave Indoor Channels for Future 5G Wireless Communication Networks.

PubMed

Al-Samman, A M; Rahman, T A; Azmi, M H; Hindia, M N; Khan, I; Hanafi, E

This paper presents an experimental characterization of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) channels in the 6.5 GHz, 10.5 GHz, 15 GHz, 19 GHz, 28 GHz and 38 GHz frequency bands in an indoor corridor environment. More than 4,000 power delay profiles were measured across the bands using an omnidirectional transmitter antenna and a highly directional horn receiver antenna for both co- and cross-polarized antenna configurations. This paper develops a new path-loss model to account for the frequency attenuation with distance, which we term the frequency attenuation (FA) path-loss model and introduce a frequency-dependent attenuation factor. The large-scale path loss was characterized based on both new and well-known path-loss models. A general and less complex method is also proposed to estimate the cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) factor of close-in reference distance with the XPD (CIX) and ABG with the XPD (ABGX) path-loss models to avoid the computational complexity of minimum mean square error (MMSE) approach. Moreover, small-scale parameters such as root mean square (RMS) delay spread, mean excess (MN-EX) delay, dispersion factors and maximum excess (MAX-EX) delay parameters were used to characterize the multipath channel dispersion. Multiple statistical distributions for RMS delay spread were also investigated. The results show that our proposed models are simpler and more physically-based than other well-known models. The path-loss exponents for all studied models are smaller than that of the free-space model by values in the range of 0.1 to 1.4 for all measured frequencies. The RMS delay spread values varied between 0.2 ns and 13.8 ns, and the dispersion factor values were less than 1 for all measured frequencies. The exponential and Weibull probability distribution models best fit the RMS delay spread empirical distribution for all of the measured frequencies in all scenarios.

Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Clouvas, A; Gagianas, A

1996-12-01

Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied from 1990 to 1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions.

Modelling the spread of Ebola virus with Atangana-Baleanu fractional operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koca, Ilknur

2018-03-01

The model of Ebola spread within a targeted population is extended to the concept of fractional differentiation and integration with non-local and non-singular fading memory introduced by Atangana and Baleanu. It is expected that the proposed model will show better approximation than the models established before. The existence and uniqueness of solutions for the spread of Ebola disease model is given via the Picard-Lindelof method. Finally, numerical solutions for the model are given by using different parameter values.

An analytical reconstruction model of the spread-out Bragg peak using laser-accelerated proton beams.

PubMed

Tao, Li; Zhu, Kun; Zhu, Jungao; Xu, Xiaohan; Lin, Chen; Ma, Wenjun; Lu, Haiyang; Zhao, Yanying; Lu, Yuanrong; Chen, Jia-Er; Yan, Xueqing

2017-07-07

With the development of laser technology, laser-driven proton acceleration provides a new method for proton tumor therapy. However, it has not been applied in practice because of the wide and decreasing energy spectrum of laser-accelerated proton beams. In this paper, we propose an analytical model to reconstruct the spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) using laser-accelerated proton beams. Firstly, we present a modified weighting formula for protons of different energies. Secondly, a theoretical model for the reconstruction of SOBPs with laser-accelerated proton beams has been built. It can quickly calculate the number of laser shots needed for each energy interval of the laser-accelerated protons. Finally, we show the 2D reconstruction results of SOBPs for laser-accelerated proton beams and the ideal situation. The final results show that our analytical model can give an SOBP reconstruction scheme that can be used for actual tumor therapy.

Host mating system and the spread of a disease-resistant allele in a population

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Koslow, Jennifer M.; Jiang, J.; Ruan, S.

2008-01-01

The model presented here modifies a susceptible-infected (SI) host-pathogen model to determine the influence of mating system on the outcome of a host-pathogen interaction. Both deterministic and stochastic (individual-based) versions of the model were used. This model considers the potential consequences of varying mating systems on the rate of spread of both the pathogen and resistance alleles within the population. We assumed that a single allele for disease resistance was sufficient to confer complete resistance in an individual, and that both homozygote and heterozygote resistant individuals had the same mean birth and death rates. When disease invaded a population with only an initial small fraction of resistant genes, inbreeding (selfing) tended to increase the probability that the disease would soon be eliminated from a small population rather than become endemic, while outcrossing greatly increased the probability that the population would become extinct due to the disease.

A novel information cascade model in online social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Chao; He, Wenbo; Niu, Jianwei; Xie, Zhongyu

2016-02-01

The spread and diffusion of information has become one of the hot issues in today's social network analysis. To analyze the spread of online social network information and the attribute of cascade, in this paper, we discuss the spread of two kinds of users' decisions for city-wide activities, namely the "want to take part in the activity" and "be interested in the activity", based on the users' attention in "DouBan" and the data of the city-wide activities. We analyze the characteristics of the activity-decision's spread in these aspects: the scale and scope of the cascade subgraph, the structure characteristic of the cascade subgraph, the topological attribute of spread tree, and the occurrence frequency of cascade subgraph. On this basis, we propose a new information spread model. Based on the classical independent diffusion model, we introduce three mechanisms, equal probability, similarity of nodes, and popularity of nodes, which can generate and affect the spread of information. Besides, by conducting the experiments in six different kinds of network data set, we compare the effects of three mechanisms above mentioned, totally six specific factors, on the spread of information, and put forward that the node's popularity plays an important role in the information spread.

Suppressing disease spreading by using information diffusion on multiplex networks.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Liu, Quan-Hui; Cai, Shi-Min; Tang, Ming; Braunstein, Lidia A; Stanley, H Eugene

2016-07-06

Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate.

Modeling potential Emerald Ash Borer spread through GIS/cell-based/gravity models with data bolstered by web-based inputs

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Davis Sydnor; Jonathan Bossenbroek; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

2006-01-01

We model the susceptibility and potential spread of the organism across the eastern United States and especially through Michigan and Ohio using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. We are also developing a cell-based model for the potential spread of the organism. We have developed a web-based tool for public agencies and private individuals to enter the...

Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century.

PubMed

Tjaden, Nils B; Suk, Jonathan E; Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2017-06-19

The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.

A network model for Ebola spreading.

PubMed

Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

2016-04-07

The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Varicella infection modeling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Katherine A.; Finley, Patrick D.; Moore, Thomas W.

2013-09-01

Infectious diseases can spread rapidly through healthcare facilities, resulting in widespread illness among vulnerable patients. Computational models of disease spread are useful for evaluating mitigation strategies under different scenarios. This report describes two infectious disease models built for the US Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) motivated by a Varicella outbreak in a VA facility. The first model simulates disease spread within a notional contact network representing staff and patients. Several interventions, along with initial infection counts and intervention delay, were evaluated for effectiveness at preventing disease spread. The second model adds staff categories, location, scheduling, and variable contact rates tomore » improve resolution. This model achieved more accurate infection counts and enabled a more rigorous evaluation of comparative effectiveness of interventions.« less

Continuous versus Arrested Spreading of Biofilms at Solid-Gas Interfaces: The Role of Surface Forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinschek, Sarah; John, Karin; Lecuyer, Sigolène; Thiele, Uwe

2017-08-01

We introduce and analyze a model for osmotically spreading bacterial colonies at solid-air interfaces that includes wetting phenomena, i.e., surface forces. The model is based on a hydrodynamic description for liquid suspensions which is supplemented by bioactive processes. We show that surface forces determine whether a biofilm can expand laterally over a substrate and provide experimental evidence for the existence of a transition between continuous and arrested spreading for Bacillus subtilis biofilms. In the case of arrested spreading, the lateral expansion of the biofilm is confined, albeit the colony is biologically active. However, a small reduction in the surface tension of the biofilm is sufficient to induce spreading. The incorporation of surface forces into our hydrodynamic model allows us to capture this transition in biofilm spreading behavior.

National and sub-national trend and burden of injuries in Iran, 1990 - 2013: a study protocol.

PubMed

Jamshidbeygi, Esmat; Rastad, Hadith; Qorbani, Mostafa; Saadat, Soheil; Sepidarkish, Mehdi; Asayesh, Hamid; Sepanlou, Sadaf Ghajarieh; Shokraneh, Farhad; Najafi, Fereshteh; Khoramdad, Malihe; Maghsodi, Ahmad; Farzadfar, Farahnaz; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Farzadfar, Farshad

2014-03-01

Worldwide, injuries are a major public health concern and make a considerable contribution to the disease burden. The present study is a component of the National and Subnational Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2013 (NASBOD) study in Iran, which was designed to investigate the burden of most important injuries (road traffic injuries, falls, burns, poisonings and drownings) at the national and sub-national levels in Iran. In this paper we explain definitions, organization, injuries selection process, data sources, data gathering methods, and data analyses of the national and sub-national burden of injuries study in Iran. The burden of most important injuries in current metric of DALYs at the national and sub-national levels in Iran over 1990-2013 will be estimated through comprehensive reviews of either published or national data sources. Statistical modeling will be used to impute the missing data on the burden of selected important injuries for each district-year. The results of present study can help health policy makers to plan more comprehensive and cost-effective strategies at national and sub-national level for prevention and control of burden caused by injuries.

Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

2014-05-01

This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: a level-set-based fire propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the non-linearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially-uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically-generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of data assimilation strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

2014-11-01

This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: an Eulerian front propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation (DA) algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the nonlinearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based DA algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach, as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of DA strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

The Collective Knowledge of Social Tags: Direct and Indirect Influences on Navigation, Learning, and Information Processing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cress, Ulrike; Held, Christoph; Kimmerle, Joachim

2013-01-01

Tag clouds generated in social tagging systems can capture the collective knowledge of communities. Using as a basis spreading activation theories, information foraging theory, and the co-evolution model of cognitive and social systems, we present here a model for an "extended information scent," which proposes that both collective and individual…

Viscous drop collisions on surfaces of varying wettability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolleddula, Daniel; Berchielli, Al; Aliseda, Alberto

2010-11-01

We present an experimental study of increasingly viscous acetone rich and Newtonian equivalent liquid drops colliding on surfaces of varying wettability. This class of liquids applies directly to spray coating processes in pharmaceutical industries. The results from this study will elucidate the physics in a regime where resisting viscous forces and the restoring forces of capillarity are balanced, Oh˜ 1. Early spreading dynamics τ=Ut/D 1 indicate negligible dependence on contact angles while longer times demonstrate deviations from Tanner's law, D˜t^1/10. We will compare our results with recent theory to demonstrate the feasibility of modelling complex rheology spreading characteristics over short and long time scales. Preliminary results indicate an intermediate spreading regime following the inertial phase where the diameter, D˜t^n with 1/7 < n < 1/5.

A Cellular Automaton Framework for Infectious Disease Spread Simulation

PubMed Central

Pfeifer, Bernhard; Kugler, Karl; Tejada, Maria M; Baumgartner, Christian; Seger, Michael; Osl, Melanie; Netzer, Michael; Handler, Michael; Dander, Andreas; Wurz, Manfred; Graber, Armin; Tilg, Bernhard

2008-01-01

In this paper, a cellular automaton framework for processing the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases is presented. The developed environment simulates and visualizes how infectious diseases might spread, and hence provides a powerful instrument for health care organizations to generate disease prevention and contingency plans. In this study, the outbreak of an avian flu like virus was modeled in the state of Tyrol, and various scenarios such as quarantine, effect of different medications on viral spread and changes of social behavior were simulated. The proposed framework is implemented using the programming language Java. The set up of the simulation environment requires specification of the disease parameters and the geographical information using a population density colored map, enriched with demographic data. The results of the numerical simulations and the analysis of the computed parameters will be used to get a deeper understanding of how the disease spreading mechanisms work, and how to protect the population from contracting the disease. Strategies for optimization of medical treatment and vaccination regimens will also be investigated using our cellular automaton framework. In this study, six different scenarios were simulated. It showed that geographical barriers may help to slow down the spread of an infectious disease, however, when an aggressive and deadly communicable disease spreads, only quarantine and controlled medical treatment are able to stop the outbreak, if at all. PMID:19415136

Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza

PubMed Central

Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Chmura, Aleksei A.; Gibbons, David W.; Fleischer, Robert C.; Marra, Peter P.; Daszak, Peter

2006-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into Asia, Europe, and Africa has resulted in enormous impacts on the poultry industry and presents an important threat to human health. The pathways by which the virus has and will spread between countries have been debated extensively, but have yet to be analyzed comprehensively and quantitatively. We integrated data on phylogenetic relationships of virus isolates, migratory bird movements, and trade in poultry and wild birds to determine the pathway for 52 individual introduction events into countries and predict future spread. We show that 9 of 21 of H5N1 introductions to countries in Asia were most likely through poultry, and 3 of 21 were most likely through migrating birds. In contrast, spread to most (20/23) countries in Europe was most likely through migratory birds. Spread in Africa was likely partly by poultry (2/8 introductions) and partly by migrating birds (3/8). Our analyses predict that H5N1 is more likely to be introduced into the Western Hemisphere through infected poultry and into the mainland United States by subsequent movement of migrating birds from neighboring countries, rather than from eastern Siberia. These results highlight the potential synergism between trade and wild animal movement in the emergence and pandemic spread of pathogens and demonstrate the value of predictive models for disease control. PMID:17158217

Focusing Agricultural Education Research: The Challenge of the 1990's and Beyond. Proceedings of the National Agricultural Education Research Meeting (17th, Cincinnati, Ohio, November 30, 1990).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Robert A., Comp.

Selected titles among the 51 papers accepted for presentation or publication by the 1990 meeting of a yearly forum for agricultural research presentation include the following: "Effectiveness of Beginning Scholars Program in Attracting High Ability Students to the College of Agriculture and Home Economics" (Lester, Graham); "Analysis of Enrollment…

Exploring the Complex Pattern of Information Spreading in Online Blog Communities

PubMed Central

Pei, Sen; Muchnik, Lev; Tang, Shaoting; Zheng, Zhiming; Makse, Hernán A.

2015-01-01

Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate information diffusion, we observe that such models fail to reproduce the realistic diffusion pattern. In respect to users behaviors, strikingly, we find that most users would stick to one specific diffusion mechanism. Moreover, our observations indicate that the social spreading is not only crucial for the structure of diffusion trees, but also capable of inducing more subsequent individuals to acquire the information. Our findings suggest new directions for modeling of information diffusion in social systems, and could inform design of efficient propagation strategies based on users behaviors. PMID:25985081

Exploring the complex pattern of information spreading in online blog communities.

PubMed

Pei, Sen; Muchnik, Lev; Tang, Shaoting; Zheng, Zhiming; Makse, Hernán A

2015-01-01

Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate information diffusion, we observe that such models fail to reproduce the realistic diffusion pattern. In respect to users behaviors, strikingly, we find that most users would stick to one specific diffusion mechanism. Moreover, our observations indicate that the social spreading is not only crucial for the structure of diffusion trees, but also capable of inducing more subsequent individuals to acquire the information. Our findings suggest new directions for modeling of information diffusion in social systems, and could inform design of efficient propagation strategies based on users behaviors.

Finding Exoplanets Using Point Spread Function Photometry on Kepler Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, Rachael Christina; Scolnic, Daniel; Montet, Ben

2018-01-01

The Kepler Mission has been able to identify over 5,000 exoplanet candidates using mostly aperture photometry. Despite the impressive number of discoveries, a large portion of Kepler’s data set is neglected due to limitations using aperture photometry on faint sources in crowded fields. We present an alternate method that overcomes those restrictions — Point Spread Function (PSF) photometry. This powerful tool, which is already used in supernova astronomy, was used for the first time on Kepler Full Frame Images, rather than just looking at the standard light curves. We present light curves for stars in our data set and demonstrate that PSF photometry can at least get down to the same photometric precision as aperture photometry. As a check for the robustness of this method, we change small variables (stamp size, interpolation amount, and noise correction) and show that the PSF light curves maintain the same repeatability across all combinations for one of our models. We also present our progress in the next steps of this project, including the creation of a PSF model from the data itself and applying the model across the entire data set at once.

Reverse-feeding effect of epidemic by propagators in two-layered networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayu, Wu; Yanping, Zhao; Muhua, Zheng; Jie, Zhou; Zonghua, Liu

2016-02-01

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and is currently focused on the spreading of multiple pathogens, especially in multiplex networks. However, little attention has been paid to the case where the mutual influence between different pathogens comes from a fraction of epidemic propagators, such as bisexual people in two separated groups of heterosexual and homosexual people. We here study this topic by presenting a network model of two layers connected by impulsive links, in contrast to the persistent links in each layer. We let each layer have a distinct pathogen and their interactive infection is implemented by a fraction of propagators jumping between the corresponding pairs of nodes in the two layers. By this model we show that (i) the propagators take the key role to transmit pathogens from one layer to the other, which significantly influences the stabilized epidemics; (ii) the epidemic thresholds will be changed by the propagators; and (iii) a reverse-feeding effect can be expected when the infective rate is smaller than its threshold of isolated spreading. A theoretical analysis is presented to explain the numerical results. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11135001, 11375066, and 11405059) and the National Basic Key Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB834100).

#FluxFlow: Visual Analysis of Anomalous Information Spreading on Social Media.

PubMed

Zhao, Jian; Cao, Nan; Wen, Zhen; Song, Yale; Lin, Yu-Ru; Collins, Christopher

2014-12-01

We present FluxFlow, an interactive visual analysis system for revealing and analyzing anomalous information spreading in social media. Everyday, millions of messages are created, commented, and shared by people on social media websites, such as Twitter and Facebook. This provides valuable data for researchers and practitioners in many application domains, such as marketing, to inform decision-making. Distilling valuable social signals from the huge crowd's messages, however, is challenging, due to the heterogeneous and dynamic crowd behaviors. The challenge is rooted in data analysts' capability of discerning the anomalous information behaviors, such as the spreading of rumors or misinformation, from the rest that are more conventional patterns, such as popular topics and newsworthy events, in a timely fashion. FluxFlow incorporates advanced machine learning algorithms to detect anomalies, and offers a set of novel visualization designs for presenting the detected threads for deeper analysis. We evaluated FluxFlow with real datasets containing the Twitter feeds captured during significant events such as Hurricane Sandy. Through quantitative measurements of the algorithmic performance and qualitative interviews with domain experts, the results show that the back-end anomaly detection model is effective in identifying anomalous retweeting threads, and its front-end interactive visualizations are intuitive and useful for analysts to discover insights in data and comprehend the underlying analytical model.

Group delay spread analysis of coupled-multicore fibers: A comparison between weak and tight bending conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Takeshi; Saitoh, Kunimasa

2017-06-01

Group delay spread of coupled three-core fiber is investigated based on coupled-wave theory. The differences between supermode and discrete core mode models are thoroughly investigated to reveal applicability of both models for specific fiber bending condition. A macrobending with random twisting is taken into account for random modal mixing in the fiber. It is found that for weakly bent condition, both supermode and discrete core mode models are applicable. On the other hand, for strongly bent condition, the discrete core mode model should be used to account for increased differential modal group delay for the fiber without twisting and short correlation length, which were experimentally observed recently. Results presented in this paper indicate the discrete core mode model is superior to the supermode model for the analysis of coupled-multicore fibers for various bent condition. Also, for estimating GDS of coupled-multicore fiber, it is critically important to take into account the fiber bending condition.

A Simple Class Exercise on Plate Tectonic Motion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Denis E. B.

1990-01-01

Presented is an activity in which students construct a model of plate divergence with two sheets of paper to show the separation of two continental plates in a system of spreading ridges and faults. Diagrams and procedures are described. (CW)

Web malware spread modelling and optimal control strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wanping; Zhong, Shouming

2017-02-01

The popularity of the Web improves the growth of web threats. Formulating mathematical models for accurate prediction of malicious propagation over networks is of great importance. The aim of this paper is to understand the propagation mechanisms of web malware and the impact of human intervention on the spread of malicious hyperlinks. Considering the characteristics of web malware, a new differential epidemic model which extends the traditional SIR model by adding another delitescent compartment is proposed to address the spreading behavior of malicious links over networks. The spreading threshold of the model system is calculated, and the dynamics of the model is theoretically analyzed. Moreover, the optimal control theory is employed to study malware immunization strategies, aiming to keep the total economic loss of security investment and infection loss as low as possible. The existence and uniqueness of the results concerning the optimality system are confirmed. Finally, numerical simulations show that the spread of malware links can be controlled effectively with proper control strategy of specific parameter choice.

Web malware spread modelling and optimal control strategies.

PubMed

Liu, Wanping; Zhong, Shouming

2017-02-10

The popularity of the Web improves the growth of web threats. Formulating mathematical models for accurate prediction of malicious propagation over networks is of great importance. The aim of this paper is to understand the propagation mechanisms of web malware and the impact of human intervention on the spread of malicious hyperlinks. Considering the characteristics of web malware, a new differential epidemic model which extends the traditional SIR model by adding another delitescent compartment is proposed to address the spreading behavior of malicious links over networks. The spreading threshold of the model system is calculated, and the dynamics of the model is theoretically analyzed. Moreover, the optimal control theory is employed to study malware immunization strategies, aiming to keep the total economic loss of security investment and infection loss as low as possible. The existence and uniqueness of the results concerning the optimality system are confirmed. Finally, numerical simulations show that the spread of malware links can be controlled effectively with proper control strategy of specific parameter choice.

InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

PubMed

Stevenson, M A; Sanson, R L; Stern, M W; O'Leary, B D; Sujau, M; Moles-Benfell, N; Morris, R S

2013-04-01

We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Web malware spread modelling and optimal control strategies

PubMed Central

Liu, Wanping; Zhong, Shouming

2017-01-01

The popularity of the Web improves the growth of web threats. Formulating mathematical models for accurate prediction of malicious propagation over networks is of great importance. The aim of this paper is to understand the propagation mechanisms of web malware and the impact of human intervention on the spread of malicious hyperlinks. Considering the characteristics of web malware, a new differential epidemic model which extends the traditional SIR model by adding another delitescent compartment is proposed to address the spreading behavior of malicious links over networks. The spreading threshold of the model system is calculated, and the dynamics of the model is theoretically analyzed. Moreover, the optimal control theory is employed to study malware immunization strategies, aiming to keep the total economic loss of security investment and infection loss as low as possible. The existence and uniqueness of the results concerning the optimality system are confirmed. Finally, numerical simulations show that the spread of malware links can be controlled effectively with proper control strategy of specific parameter choice. PMID:28186203

Influence of Boundary Conditions on Regional Air Quality Simulations-Analysis of AQMEII Phase 3 Results

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emis...

29 CFR 1990.151 - Model standard pursuant to section 6(b) of the Act.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) The employer shall assure that in the regulated area, food or beverages are not present or consumed... ___; (B) Engineering plans and other studies contemplated or used to determine the controls for each... circumstances). Whenever food or beverages are consumed in the workplace, the employer shall provide lunchroom...

Young Children's Psychological Selves: Convergence with Maternal Reports of Child Personality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Geoffrey L.; Mangelsdorf, Sarah C.; Agathen, Jean M.; Ho, Moon-Ho

2008-01-01

The present research examined five-year-old children's psychological self-concepts. Non-linear factor analysis was used to model the latent structure of the children's self-view questionnaire (CSVQ; Eder, 1990), a measure of children's self-concepts. The coherence and reliability of the emerging factor structure indicated that young children are…

Do Interests and Cognitive Abilities Help Explain College Major Choice Equally Well for Women and Men?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passler, Katja; Hell, Benedikt

2012-01-01

The present study examines whether vocational interests, measured by Holland's RIASEC model, and objectively assessed cognitive abilities, were useful in discriminating among various major categories for a sample of 1990 German university students. Interests and specific abilities, in combination, significantly discriminated among major categories…

Mechanism of Cutaneous Vesication

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-02-17

mitochondria, site of the citric acid cycle, based on the time-course studies (King and Monteiro-Riviere, 1990; King et al., 1992). Detriment of the glucose...dermis ............................... 98 31. Passive Topical Kinetic Model ........................................................... 99 32. IPPSF... acid (AA) metabolism by cyclooxygenase and lipoxygenase enzymes are known to be potent inflammatory mediators present in many skin diseases. The skin

ESTIMATE OF GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS AND OPEN DUMPS

EPA Science Inventory

The report presents an empirical model to estimate global methane (CH4) emissions from landfills and open dumps based on EPA data from landfill gas (LFG) recovery projects. The EPA CH4 estimates for 1990 range between 19 and 40 teragrams (10 to the 12th power) per year (Tg/yr), w...

Atypical viral dynamics from transport through popular places

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Xu, Chen; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

2016-08-01

The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading—from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading through online spaces such as chat rooms and social media. However, there is a lack of understanding of the types of viral dynamics that can result. Here we present a minimal dynamical model that focuses on the time-dependent interplay between the mobility through and the occupancy of such spaces. Our generic model permits analytic analysis while producing a rich diversity of infection profiles in terms of their shapes, durations, and intensities. The general features of these theoretical profiles compare well to real-world data of recent social contagion phenomena.

Infection prevention behaviour and infectious disease modelling: a review of the literature and recommendations for the future.

PubMed

Weston, Dale; Hauck, Katharina; Amlôt, Richard

2018-03-09

Given the importance of person to person transmission in the spread of infectious diseases, it is critically important to ensure that human behaviour with respect to infection prevention is appropriately represented within infectious disease models. This paper presents a large scale scoping review regarding the incorporation of infection prevention behaviour in infectious disease models. The outcomes of this review are contextualised within the psychological literature concerning health behaviour and behaviour change, resulting in a series of key recommendations for the incorporation of human behaviour in future infectious disease models. The search strategy focused on terms relating to behaviour, infectious disease and mathematical modelling. The selection criteria were developed iteratively to focus on original research articles that present an infectious disease model with human-human spread, in which individuals' self-protective health behaviour varied endogenously within the model. Data extracted included: the behaviour that is modelled; how this behaviour is modelled; any theoretical background for the modelling of behaviour, and; any behavioural data used to parameterise the models. Forty-two papers from an initial total of 2987 were retained for inclusion in the final review. All of these papers were published between 2002 and 2015. Many of the included papers employed a multiple, linked models to incorporate infection prevention behaviour. Both cognitive constructs (e.g., perceived risk) and, to a lesser extent, social constructs (e.g., social norms) were identified in the included papers. However, only five papers made explicit reference to psychological health behaviour change theories. Finally, just under half of the included papers incorporated behavioural data in their modelling. By contextualising the review outcomes within the psychological literature on health behaviour and behaviour change, three key recommendations for future behavioural modelling are made. First, modellers should consult with the psychological literature on health behaviour/ behaviour change when developing new models. Second, modellers interested in exploring the relationship between behaviour and disease spread should draw on social psychological literature to increase the complexity of the social world represented within infectious disease models. Finally, greater use of context-specific behavioural data (e.g., survey data, observational data) is recommended to parameterise models.

Dielectric fluid directional spreading under the action of corona discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shangru; Liu, Jie; Hu, Qun; Jiang, Teng; Yang, Jinchu; Liu, Sheng; Zheng, Huai

2018-01-01

Liquid spreading is a very common nature phenomenon and of significant importance for a broad range of applications. In this study, a dielectric fluid directional spreading phenomenon is presented. Under the action of corona discharge, a dielectric fluid, here a typical silicone directionally spreads along conductive patterns on conductive/nonconductive substrates. Directional spreading behaviors of silicone were experimentally observed on different conductive patterns in detail. Spreading speeds were analyzed at different driving voltages, which induced the corona discharge. The presented phenomenon may be useful to inspire several techniques of manipulating liquid transportation and fabricating micropatterns.

This Bud's Not for You: Adolescents' Perceptions of Beer and Cigarette Magazine Advertisements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durrant, Lynne H.; And Others

1994-01-01

To determine whether new (1990s) cigarette and beer magazine advertisements target young adolescents by using younger-looking models than in the 1960s, sixth and seventh graders viewed advertisements and estimated models' ages. Most students perceived the 1990s models to be under 25 and the 1960s models to be over 25 years of age. (SM)

Fires and fuels: Vegetation change over time in the Zuni Mountains, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wylie, Luke Anthony

The Zuni Mountains are a region that has been dramatically changed by human interference. Anthropogenically, fire suppression practices have allowed a buildup of fuels and caused a change in the fire-adapted ponderosa pine ecosystem such that the new ecosystem now incorporates many fire-intolerant species. As a result, the low-severity fires that the ecosystem once depended on to regenerate the forest are much reduced, and these low-severity fires are now replaced by crown-level infernos that threaten the forest and nearby towns. In order to combat these effects, land managers are implementing fuel reduction practices and are striving to better understand the local ecosystem. In this study, a predictive fire spread model (FARSITE) was implemented to predict spatio-temporal distribution of fire in the Zuni Mountains based on change in vegetation types that are most prone to fire. Using Landsat imagery and historical fire spread data from 2001 to 2014, the following research questions were investigated: (1) What variables are responsible for fire spread in the Zuni Mountains, New Mexico? (2) Which areas are prone to destructive and canopy level fires? and (3) How have the fuel model types that are most conducive to fire spread changed in the past twenty years? The utilization of spatial modeling and remote sensing to understand the interaction of meteorological variables and vegetation in predicting fire spread in this region is a novel approach. This study showed that (i) fires are more likely to occur in the valleys and high elevation grassland areas of the Zuni Mountains, (ii) certain vegetation types including grass and shrub lands in the area present a greater danger to canopy fire than others, and (iii) that these vegetation types have changed in the past sixteen years.

Seafloor Spreading Reorganization South of Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hey, R. N.; Martinez, F.; Benediktsdottir, A.; Hoskuldsson, A.

2011-12-01

There is a major ongoing diachronous reorganization of North Atlantic seafloor spreading occurring at present south of Iceland, from an orthogonal ridge/transform geometry to the present oblique spreading geometry without transform faults on the Reykjanes Ridge. This reorganization is presently interpreted as a thermal phenomenon, with a pulse of warmer mantle expanding away from the Iceland plume causing a progressive change in subaxial mantle rheology from brittle to ductile, so that transform faults can no longer be maintained. Given that this is certainly the most obvious and arguably the type-example of active plate boundary reorganization, it is somewhat surprising that a thermal mechanism has near universal acceptance here whereas most if not all other seafloor spreading reorganizations are equally universally thought to result from the tectonic rift propagation mechanism. This suggests the possibility that either the thermal model might be wrong here, or that the propagating rift (PR) model might be wrong elsewhere. The reason the PR alternative was ignored here was that the younger seafloor record flanking the Reykjanes Ridge consisting of V-shaped ridges, troughs & scarps (VSRs) enclosed by the reorganization wake seemed to prove that there had been no rift propagation. It had long been thought that these VSRs were symmetric about the spreading axis, & if this conventional wisdom (that led directly to the pulsing Iceland plume model) were true, rift propagation, which must produce asymmetry, could not have occurred. However, our expedition collected marine geophysical data that showed that the VSRs actually have an asymmetric geometry consistent with rift propagation, not with previous pulsing plume models, & thus they can no longer be considered convincing proof of a pulsing Iceland plume. Although we had previously noted that plume pulses might drive the propagators away from Iceland, a significant new result (Benediktsdóttir et al., 2011) is that excellent magnetic anomaly fits can only be achieved if some rift propagation toward Iceland has also occurred. These newly identified propagators toward Iceland can't be driven by plume pulses even if the ones propagating away from Iceland are. Rift propagation is an alternative way to produce V-shaped wakes of thin crust & grabens, e.g. Earth's deepest axial valley is at the tip of the Pito propagator which has created the transient Easter microplate. (Hey had the great pleasure of sailing on the Nautile expedition Jean Francheteau led to Pito Deep, & after that advised his students to sail on French ships every chance they got). The involvement of rift propagation in VSR formation suggests this is also a possible explanation for the ongoing major transform-fault eliminating reorganization. If so, the tip of the reorganization would presently be near the first transform fault south of Iceland, the Bight transform near 56.8N, rather than in the extensively surveyed area 200 km farther north where the thermal reorganization model predicted the reorganization tip should be.

Extra-embryonic tissue spreading directs early embryo morphogenesis in killifish

PubMed Central

Reig, Germán; Cerda, Mauricio; Sepúlveda, Néstor; Flores, Daniela; Castañeda, Victor; Tada, Masazumi; Härtel, Steffen; Concha, Miguel L.

2017-01-01

The spreading of mesenchymal-like cell layers is critical for embryo morphogenesis and tissue repair, yet we know little of this process in vivo. Here we take advantage of unique developmental features of the non-conventional annual killifish embryo to study the principles underlying tissue spreading in a simple cellular environment, devoid of patterning signals and major morphogenetic cell movements. Using in vivo experimentation and physical modelling we reveal that the extra-embryonic epithelial enveloping cell layer, thought mainly to provide protection to the embryo, directs cell migration and the spreading of embryonic tissue during early development. This function relies on the ability of embryonic cells to couple their autonomous random motility to non-autonomous signals arising from the expansion of the extra-embryonic epithelium, mediated by cell membrane adhesion and tension. Thus, we present a mechanism of extra-embryonic control of embryo morphogenesis that couples the mechanical properties of adjacent tissues in the early killifish embryo. PMID:28580937

A model of solar energetic particles for use in calculating LET spectra developed from ONR-604 data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, J.; Chenette, D.; Guzik, T. G.; Garcia-Munoz, M.; Pyle, K. R.; Sang, Y.; Wefel, J. P.

1994-01-01

A model of solar energetic particles (SEP) has been developed and is applied to solar flares during the 1990/1991 CRRES mission using data measured by the University of Chicago instrument, ONR-604. The model includes the time-dependent behavior, heavy-ion content, energy spectrum and fluence, and can accurately represent the observed SEP events in the energy range between 40 to 500 MeV/nucleon. Results are presented for the March and June, 1991 flare periods.

Non-aqueous phase liquid spreading during soil vapor extraction

PubMed Central

Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Hunt, James R.

2010-01-01

Many non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) are expected to spread at the air – water interface, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions. In the vadose zone, this spreading should increase the surface area for mass transfer and the efficiency of volatile NAPL recovery by soil vapor extraction (SVE). Observations of spreading on water wet surfaces led to a conceptual model of oil spreading vertically above a NAPL pool in the vadose zone. Analysis of this model predicts that spreading can enhance the SVE contaminant recovery compared to conditions where the liquid does not spread. Experiments were conducted with spreading volatile oils hexane and heptane in wet porous media and capillary tubes, where spreading was observed at the scale of centimeters. Within porous medium columns up to a meter in height containing stagnant gas, spreading was less than ten centimeters and did not contribute significantly to hexane volatilization. Water film thinning and oil film pinning may have prevented significant oil film spreading, and thus did not enhance SVE at the scale of a meter. The experiments performed indicate that volatile oil spreading at the field scale is unlikely to contribute significantly to the efficiency of SVE. PMID:14734243

Front propagation and clustering in the stochastic nonlocal Fisher equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganan, Yehuda A.; Kessler, David A.

2018-04-01

In this work, we study the problem of front propagation and pattern formation in the stochastic nonlocal Fisher equation. We find a crossover between two regimes: a steadily propagating regime for not too large interaction range and a stochastic punctuated spreading regime for larger ranges. We show that the former regime is well described by the heuristic approximation of the system by a deterministic system where the linear growth term is cut off below some critical density. This deterministic system is seen not only to give the right front velocity, but also predicts the onset of clustering for interaction kernels which give rise to stable uniform states, such as the Gaussian kernel, for sufficiently large cutoff. Above the critical cutoff, distinct clusters emerge behind the front. These same features are present in the stochastic model for sufficiently small carrying capacity. In the latter, punctuated spreading, regime, the population is concentrated on clusters, as in the infinite range case, which divide and separate as a result of the stochastic noise. Due to the finite interaction range, if a fragment at the edge of the population separates sufficiently far, it stabilizes as a new cluster, and the processes begins anew. The deterministic cutoff model does not have this spreading for large interaction ranges, attesting to its purely stochastic origins. We show that this mode of spreading has an exponentially small mean spreading velocity, decaying with the range of the interaction kernel.

Front propagation and clustering in the stochastic nonlocal Fisher equation.

PubMed

Ganan, Yehuda A; Kessler, David A

2018-04-01

In this work, we study the problem of front propagation and pattern formation in the stochastic nonlocal Fisher equation. We find a crossover between two regimes: a steadily propagating regime for not too large interaction range and a stochastic punctuated spreading regime for larger ranges. We show that the former regime is well described by the heuristic approximation of the system by a deterministic system where the linear growth term is cut off below some critical density. This deterministic system is seen not only to give the right front velocity, but also predicts the onset of clustering for interaction kernels which give rise to stable uniform states, such as the Gaussian kernel, for sufficiently large cutoff. Above the critical cutoff, distinct clusters emerge behind the front. These same features are present in the stochastic model for sufficiently small carrying capacity. In the latter, punctuated spreading, regime, the population is concentrated on clusters, as in the infinite range case, which divide and separate as a result of the stochastic noise. Due to the finite interaction range, if a fragment at the edge of the population separates sufficiently far, it stabilizes as a new cluster, and the processes begins anew. The deterministic cutoff model does not have this spreading for large interaction ranges, attesting to its purely stochastic origins. We show that this mode of spreading has an exponentially small mean spreading velocity, decaying with the range of the interaction kernel.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.

PubMed

Otsuki, Shiori; Nishiura, Hiroshi

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Otsuki, Shiori

2016-01-01

Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544

Spreading-vanishing dichotomy in a diffusive logistic model with a free boundary, II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yihong; Guo, Zongming

We study the diffusive logistic equation with a free boundary in higher space dimensions and heterogeneous environment. Such a model may be used to describe the spreading of a new or invasive species, with the free boundary representing the expanding front. For simplicity, we assume that the environment and the solution are radially symmetric. In the special case of one space dimension and homogeneous environment, this free boundary problem was investigated in Du and Lin (2010) [10]. We prove that the spreading-vanishing dichotomy established in Du and Lin (2010) [10] still holds in the more general and ecologically realistic setting considered here. Moreover, when spreading occurs, we obtain best possible upper and lower bounds for the spreading speed of the expanding front. When the environment is asymptotically homogeneous at infinity, these two bounds coincide. Our results indicate that the asymptotic spreading speed determined by this model does not depend on the spatial dimension.

Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Hwang-Yong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-01-01

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.

Influence of trust in the spreading of information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Hongrun; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio

2017-01-01

The understanding and prediction of information diffusion processes on networks is a major challenge in network theory with many implications in social sciences. Many theoretical advances occurred due to stochastic spreading models. Nevertheless, these stochastic models overlooked the influence of rational decisions on the outcome of the process. For instance, different levels of trust in acquaintances do play a role in information spreading, and actors may change their spreading decisions during the information diffusion process accordingly. Here, we study an information-spreading model in which the decision to transmit or not is based on trust. We explore the interplay between the propagation of information and the trust dynamics happening on a two-layer multiplex network. Actors' trustable or untrustable states are defined as accumulated cooperation or defection behaviors, respectively, in a Prisoner's Dilemma setup, and they are controlled by a memory span. The propagation of information is abstracted as a threshold model on the information-spreading layer, where the threshold depends on the trustability of agents. The analysis of the model is performed using a tree approximation and validated on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. The results show that the memory of previous actions has a significant effect on the spreading of information. For example, the less memory that is considered, the higher is the diffusion. Information is highly promoted by the emergence of trustable acquaintances. These results provide insight into the effect of plausible biases on spreading dynamics in a multilevel networked system.

Atmospheric Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease During The Early Phase of The Uk Epidemic 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sørensen, J. H.; Mikkelsen, T.; Astrup, P.; Alexandersen, S.; Donaldson, A. I.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease in cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of species which are susceptible, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of virus that can initiate infection in susceptible hosts. One of the routes for the spread of the disease is the atmospheric dispersion of virus exhaled by infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have occurred over a distance of several hundred kilometres. For the FMD epidemic in UK in 2001, atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to describe the atmospheric dispersion of virus for the larger outbreaks of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is first of all to identify risk zones, which is helpful to the emergency management. The paper addresses the modelling techniques and presents results related with the epidemic in UK in 2001.

Disease Containment Strategies based on Mobility and Information Dissemination.

PubMed

Lima, A; De Domenico, M; Pejovic, V; Musolesi, M

2015-06-02

Human mobility and social structure are at the basis of disease spreading. Disease containment strategies are usually devised from coarse-grained assumptions about human mobility. Cellular networks data, however, provides finer-grained information, not only about how people move, but also about how they communicate. In this paper we analyze the behavior of a large number of individuals in Ivory Coast using cellular network data. We model mobility and communication between individuals by means of an interconnected multiplex structure where each node represents the population in a geographic area (i.e., a sous-préfecture, a third-level administrative region). We present a model that describes how diseases circulate around the country as people move between regions. We extend the model with a concurrent process of relevant information spreading. This process corresponds to people disseminating disease prevention information, e.g., hygiene practices, vaccination campaign notices and other, within their social network. Thus, this process interferes with the epidemic. We then evaluate how restricting the mobility or using preventive information spreading process affects the epidemic. We find that restricting mobility does not delay the occurrence of an endemic state and that an information campaign might be an effective countermeasure.

Implications of the S-Web Model for Impulsive SEPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antiochos, Spiro K.; Higginson, Aleida K.; DeVore, C. Richard

2017-08-01

One of the most important discoveries of the STEREO mission is that impulsive Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events frequently exhibit large longitudinal spread in the heliosphere, up to 100 degrees or more. This result is especially puzzling given the long-standing observations that impulsive SEPs originate in highly localized regions in the corona, angular extent less than one degree, and that the SEPs frequently show so-called drop-outs, effectively ruling out diffusion as a mechanism for the observed spread. We discuss the implications of the S-Web slow solar wind model for the propagation of SEPs and their distribution in the heliosphere. We present results from 3D MHD simulations demonstrating that for commonly-observed coronal magnetic topologies, the connectivity of the corona to heliosphere will be quasi-singular, with small regions near the Sun dynamically connecting to giant arcs in the heliosphere that span tens of degrees in both latitude and longitude. We show that the S-Web model can account for both SEP longitudinal spread and dropouts, and discuss implications for observations from the upcoming Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus missions.This research was supported, in part, by the NASA LWS Program.

Photoionisation modelling of Nova LMC 1990 #1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dopita, M. A.; Meatheringham, S. J.; Sutherland, R.; Williams, R. E.; Starrfield, S.; Sonneborn, G.; Shore, S.

1992-01-01

Nova LMC 1990A was a very fast Ne-O-Mg nova, for which a particularly dense coverage of spectral observation in both the UV and optical was obtained. The data for the nebular phase were subjected to an analysis by the photoionization modeling code MAPPINGS 2. The following parameters were obtained: L(sub max) = 8 x 10(exp 4) solar luminosity, T(sub eff) = 2 x 10(exp 5) K and the mass of ejecta = 5/5 x 10(exp -5) solar mass. The abundnace ratios in the ejecta were similar to those obtained by Williams et al. (1985) in the case of V693 CrA 1981. The N/O ratio and the overabundance of Al is consistent with ourburst on a ONeMg white dwarf of mass approximately equal to 1.2 solar mass, but the super-Eddington luminosity, and amount of mass ejected presents some problems to theory.

Explaining cross-national differences in marriage, cohabitation, and divorce in Europe, 1990-2000.

PubMed

Kalmijn, Matthijs

2007-11-01

European countries differ considerably in their marriage patterns. The study presented in this paper describes these differences for the 1990s and attempts to explain them from a macro-level perspective. We find that different indicators of marriage (i.e., marriage rate, age at marriage, divorce rate, and prevalence of unmarried cohabitation) cannot be seen as indicators of an underlying concept such as the 'strength of marriage'. Multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyses are estimated with countries as units and panel regression models are estimated in which annual time series for multiple countries are pooled. Using these models, we find that popular explanations of trends in the indicators - explanations that focus on gender roles, secularization, unemployment, and educational expansion - are also important for understanding differences among countries. We also find evidence for the role of historical continuity and societal disintegration in understanding cross-national differences.

LET spectra measurements from the STS-35 CPDs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

Linear energy transfer (LET) spectra derived form automated track analysis system (ATAS) track parameter measurements for crew passive dosimeters (CPD's) flown with the astronauts on STS-35 are plotted. The spread between the seven individual spectra is typical of past manual measurements of sets of CPD's. This difference is probably due to the cumulative net shielding variations experienced by the CPD's as the astronauts carrying them went about their activities on the Space Shuttle. The STS-35 mission was launched on Dec. 2, 1990, at 28.5 degrees inclination and 352-km altitude. This is somewhat higher than the nominal 300-km flights and the orbit intersects more of the high intensity trapped proton region in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). However, in comparison with APD spectra measured on earlier lower altitude missions (STS-26, -29, -30, -32), the flux spectra are all roughly comparable. This may be due to the fact that the STS-35 mission took place close to solar maximum (Feb. 1990), or perhaps to shielding differences. The corresponding dose and dose equivalent spectra for this mission are shown. The effect of statistical fluctuations at the higher LET values, where track densities are small, is very noticeable. This results in an increased spread within the dose rate and dose equivalent rate spectra, as compared to the flux spectra. The contribution to dose and dose equivalent per measured track is much greater in the high LET region and the differences, though numerically small, are heavily weighted in the integral spectra. The optimum measurement and characterization of the high LET tails of the spectra represent an important part of the research into plastic nuclear track detector (PNTD) response. The integral flux, dose rate, dose equivalent rate and mission dose equivalent for the seven astronauts are also given.

Dynamics of δ-dopant redistribution during heterostructure growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankratov, E. L.

2007-06-01

It has recently been shown that growth of a multilayer structure with one or more delta-layers at high temperature leads to spreading and asymmetrization of the dopant distribution [see, for example, E.F.J. Schubert, Vac. Sci. Technol. A. 8, 2980 (1990), A.M. Nazmul, S. Sugahara, M. Tanaka, J. Crystal Growth 251, 303 (2003); R.C. Newman, M.J. Ashwin, M.R. Fahy, L. Hart, S.N. Holmes, C. Roberts, X. Zhang, Phys. Rev. B 54, 8769 (1996); E.F. Schubert, J.M. Kuo, R.F. Kopf, H.S. Luftman, L.C. Hopkins, N.J. Sauer, J. Appl. Phys. 67, 1969 (1990); P.M. Zagwijn, J.F. van der Veen, E. Vlieg, A.H. Reader, D.J. Gravesteijn, J. Appl. Phys. 78, 4933 (1995); W.S. Hobson, S.J. Pearton, E.F. Schubert, G. Cabaniss, Appl. Phys. Lett. 55, 1546 (1989); Delta Doping of Semiconductors, edited by E.F. Schubert (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996); Yu.N. Drozdov, N.B. Baidus', B.N. Zvonkov, M.N. Drozdov, O.I. Khrykin, V.I. Shashkin, Semiconductors 37, 194 (2003); E. Skuras, A.R. Long, B. Vogele, M.C. Holland, C.R. Stanley, E.A. Johnson, M. van der Burgt, H. Yaguchi, J. Singleton, Phys. Rev. B 59, 10712 (1999); G. Li, C. Jagadish, Solid-State Electronics 41, 1207 (1997)]. In this work analytical and numerical analysis of dopant dynamics in a delta-doped area of a multilayer structure has been accomplished using Fick's second law. Some reasons for asymmetrization of a delta-dopant distribution are illustrated. The spreading of a delta-layer has been estimated using example materials of a multilayer structure, a delta-layer and an overlayer.

Phocine distemper virus (PDV) seroprevalence as predictor for future outbreaks in harbour seals.

PubMed

Ludes-Wehrmeister, Eva; Dupke, Claudia; Harder, Timm C; Baumgärtner, Wolfgang; Haas, Ludwig; Teilmann, Jonas; Dietz, Rune; Jensen, Lasse F; Siebert, Ursula

2016-02-01

Phocine distemper virus (PDV) infections caused the two most pronounced mass mortalities in marine mammals documented in the past century. During the two outbreaks, 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina), died in 1988/1989 and 2002 across populations in the Wadden Sea and adjacent waters, respectively. To follow the mechanism and development of disease spreading, the dynamics of Morbillivirus-specific antibodies in harbour seal populations in German and Danish waters were examined. 522 serum samples of free-ranging harbour seals of different ages were sampled between 1990 and 2014. By standard neutralisation assays, Morbillivirus-specific antibodies were detected, using either the PDV isolate 2558/Han 88 or the related canine distemper virus (CDV) strain Onderstepoort. A total of 159 (30.5%) of the harbour seals were seropositive. Annual seroprevalence rates showed an undulating course: Peaks were seen in the post-epidemic years 1990/1991 and 2002/2003. Following each PDV outbreak, seroprevalence decreased and six to eight years after the epidemics samples were tested seronegative, indicating that the populations are now again susceptible to new PDV outbreak. After the last outbreak in 2002, the populations grew steadily to an estimated maximum (since 1975) of about 39,100 individuals in the Wadden Sea in 2014 and about 23,540 harbour seals in the Kattegat area in 2013. A re-appearence of PDV would presumably result in another epizootic with high mortality rates as encountered in the previous outbreaks. The current high population density renders harbour seals vulnerable to rapid spread of infectious agents including PDV and the recently detected influenza A virus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical Physics of Complex Substitutive Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Qing

Diffusion processes are central to human interactions. Despite extensive studies that span multiple disciplines, our knowledge is limited to spreading processes in non-substitutive systems. Yet, a considerable number of ideas, products, and behaviors spread by substitution; to adopt a new one, agents must give up an existing one. This captures the spread of scientific constructs--forcing scientists to choose, for example, a deterministic or probabilistic worldview, as well as the adoption of durable items, such as mobile phones, cars, or homes. In this dissertation, I develop a statistical physics framework to describe, quantify, and understand substitutive systems. By empirically exploring three collected high-resolution datasets pertaining to such systems, I build a mechanistic model describing substitutions, which not only analytically predicts the universal macroscopic phenomenon discovered in the collected datasets, but also accurately captures the trajectories of individual items in a complex substitutive system, demonstrating a high degree of regularity and universality in substitutive systems. I also discuss the origins and insights of the parameters in the substitution model and possible generalization form of the mathematical framework. The systematical study of substitutive systems presented in this dissertation could potentially guide the understanding and prediction of all spreading phenomena driven by substitutions, from electric cars to scientific paradigms, and from renewable energy to new healthy habits.

Spatio-temporal cerebral blood flow perfusion patterns in cortical spreading depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verisokin, Andrey Yu.; Verveyko, Darya V.; Postnov, Dmitry E.

2017-04-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is an example of one of the most common abnormalities in biophysical brain functioning. Despite the fact that there are many mathematical models describing the cortical spreading depression (CSD), most of them do not take into consideration the role of redistribution of cerebral blood flow (CBF), that results in the formation of spatio-temporal patterns. The paper presents a mathematical model, which successfully explains the CBD role in the CSD process. Numerical study of this model has revealed the formation of stationary dissipative structures, visually analogous to Turing structures. However, the mechanism of their formation is not diffusion. We show these structures occur due to another type of spatial coupling, that is related to tissue perfusion rate. The proposed model predicts that at similar state of neurons the distribution of blood flow and oxygenation may by different. Currently, this effect is not taken into account when the Blood oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) contrast imaging used in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Thus, the diagnosis on the BOLD signal can be ambiguous. We believe that our results can be used in the future for a more correct interpretation of the data obtained with fMRI, NIRS and other similar methods for research of the brain activity.

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. Methods As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. Results An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. Conclusion This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it. PMID:19922684

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities.

PubMed

Borkowski, Maciej; Podaima, Blake W; McLeod, Robert D

2009-11-18

This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it.

Spread of large LNG pools on the sea.

PubMed

Fay, J A

2007-02-20

A review of the standard model of LNG pool spreading on water, comparing it with the model and experiments on oil pool spread from which the LNG model is extrapolated, raises questions about the validity of the former as applied to spills from marine tankers. These questions arise from the difference in fluid density ratios, in the multi-dimensional flow at the pool edge, in the effects of LNG pool boiling at the LNG-water interface, and in the model and experimental initial conditions compared with the inflow conditions from a marine tanker spill. An alternate supercritical flow model is proposed that avoids these difficulties; it predicts significant increase in the maximum pool radius compared with the standard model and is partially corroborated by tests of LNG pool fires on water. Wind driven ocean wave interaction has little effect on either spread model.

AIDS and the status of women. Challenges and perspectives for the 1990s.

PubMed

1990-10-01

WHO and the Swedish Government hosted the expert group meeting on women and HIV/AIDS in Vienna, August in 1990. Attendees concentrated their discussions on government recognized entities (national machinery) responsible for women's advancement and how they can assist in forming national policies to better women's status and limit the effect of HIV/AIDS. A very important issue came out of this meeting that had not yet been addressed in AIDS prevention strategies--the fundamental problem of women's subordination as a component of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. In addition, even though national groups for women's advancement have worked hard to rectify subordination, they have not yet addressed AIDS as a barrier to equality. Subordination of women varies from country to country, nevertheless they are all vulnerable to HIV/AIDS worldwide. They do not have equal access to education, information, and health services. They cannot demand that sexual partners practice safe sex. Despite being ill, they are expected to continue caring for their families. The national machinery must be able to assemble needed resources and assure implementation of these policies. It should encourage government policies to improve maternal and child health and family planning services, to control sexually transmitted diseases, and to provide adequate counseling and research. National AIDS committees and national machinery should communicate and form linkages to advance the status of women. Preventing the spread of HIV/AIDS cannot occur, however, if men and women do not cooperate. WHO estimated that at least 500,000 women and children acquired AIDS in the 1980s. It expects an additional 3 million in the 1990s. In the early 1990s, 8-10 million people are infected with HIV.