Forest disturbance type differentially affects seasonal moose forage

Treesearch

R.A. Lautenschlager; Hewlette S. Crawford; Martin R. Stokes; Timothy L. Stone

1997-01-01

We examined the effects of forest disturbance on forage availability, moose (Alces alces) seasonal forage selection, and predicted in vivo digestibility in eastern Maine. Wet-mass estimates and dry-mass conversions of species consumed by 3 tamed moose were made throughout the year (late winter, early spring, late spring, summer, fall, early winter)...

Predict human body indentation lying on a spring mattress using a neural network approach.

PubMed

Zhong, Shilu; Shen, Liming; Zhou, Lijuan; Guan, Zhongwei

2014-08-01

This article presents a method to predict and assess the interaction between a human body and a spring mattress. A three-layer artificial neural network model was developed to simulate and predict an indentation curve of human spine, characterized with the depth of lumbar lordosis and four inclination angles: cervicothoracic, thoracolumbar, lumbosacral and the back-hip (β). By comparing the spinal indentation curves described by the optimal evaluation parameters (depth of lumbar lordosis, cervicothoracic, thoracolumbar and lumbosacral), a better design of five-zone spring mattresses was obtained for individuals to have an effective support to the main part of the body. Using such approach, an operating process was further introduced, in which appropriate stiffness proportions were proposed to design mattress for the normal body types of Chinese young women. Finally, case studies were undertaken, which show that the method developed is feasible and practical. © IMechE 2014.

Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

1980-01-01

The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-01

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.

Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-28

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.

An integrative model of risk for high school disordered eating.

PubMed

Davis, Heather A; Smith, Gregory T

2018-06-21

Binge eating and purging behaviors are associated with significant harm and distress among adolescents. The process by which these behaviors develop (often in the high school years) is not fully understood. We tested the Acquired Preparedness (AP) model of risk involving transactions among biological, personality, and psychosocial factors to predict binge eating and purging behavior in a sample of 1,906 children assessed in the spring of 5th grade (the last year of elementary school), the fall of 6th grade (the first year of middle school), spring of 6th grade, and spring of 10th grade (second year of high school). Pubertal onset in spring of 5th grade predicted increases in negative urgency, but not negative affect, in the fall of 6th grade. Negative urgency in the fall of 6th grade predicted increases in expectancies for reinforcement from eating in the spring of 6th grade, which in turn predicted increases in binge eating behavior in the spring of 10th grade. Negative affect in the fall of 6th grade predicted increases in thinness expectancies in the spring of 6th grade, which in turn predicted increases in purging in the spring of 10th grade. Results demonstrate similarities and differences in the development of these two different bulimic behaviors. Intervention efforts targeting the risk factors evident in this model may prove fruitful in the treatment of eating disorders characterized by binge eating and purging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Does White Clover (Trifolium repens) Abundance in Temperate Pastures Determine Sitona obsoletus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larval Populations?

PubMed

McNeill, Mark R; van Koten, Chikako; Cave, Vanessa M; Chapman, David; Hodgson, Hamish

2016-01-01

To determine if host plant abundance determined the size of clover root weevil (CRW) Sitona obsoletus larval populations, a study was conducted over 4 years in plots sown in ryegrass ( Lolium perenne ) (cv. Nui) sown at either 6 or 30 kg/ha and white clover ( Trifolium repens ) sown at a uniform rate of 8 kg/ha. This provided a range of % white clover content to investigate CRW population establishment and impacts on white clover survival. Larval sampling was carried out in spring (October) when larval densities are near their spring peak at Lincoln (Canterbury, New Zealand) with % clover measured in autumn (April) and spring (September) of each year. Overall, mean larval densities measured in spring 2012-2015 were 310, 38, 59, and 31 larvae m -2 , respectively. There was a significant decline in larval populations between 2012 and 2013, but spring populations were relatively uniform thereafter. The mean % white clover measured in autumns of 2012 to 2015 was 17, 10, 3, and 11%, respectively. In comparison, mean spring % white clover from 2012 to 2015, averaged c. 5% each year. Analysis relating spring (October) larval populations to % white clover measured in each plot in autumn (April) found the 2012 larval population to be statistically significantly larger in the ryegrass 6 kg/ha plots than 30 kg/ha plots. Thereafter, sowing rate had no significant effect on larval populations. From 2013 to 2015, spring larval populations had a negative relationship with the previous autumn % white clover with the relationship highly significant for the 2014 data. When CRW larval populations in spring 2013 to 2015 were predicted from the 2013 to 2015 autumn % white clover, respectively, based on their positive relationship in 2012, the predicted densities were substantially larger than those observed. Conversely, when 2015 spring larval data and % clover was regressed against 2012-2014 larval populations, observed densities tended to be higher than predicted, but the numbers came closer to predicted for the 2013 and 2014 populations. These differences are attributed to a CRW population decline that was not accounted by % white clover changes, the CRW decline most likely due to biological control by the Braconid endoparasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides , which showed incremental increases in parasitism between 2012 and 2015, which in 2015 averaged 93%.

A piecewise mass-spring-damper model of the human breast.

PubMed

Cai, Yiqing; Chen, Lihua; Yu, Winnie; Zhou, Jie; Wan, Frances; Suh, Minyoung; Chow, Daniel Hung-Kay

2018-01-23

Previous models to predict breast movement whilst performing physical activities have, erroneously, assumed uniform elasticity within the breast. Consequently, the predicted displacements have not yet been satisfactorily validated. In this study, real time motion capture of the natural vibrations of a breast that followed, after raising and allowing it to fall freely, revealed an obvious difference in the vibration characteristics above and below the static equilibrium position. This implied that the elastic and viscous damping properties of a breast could vary under extension or compression. Therefore, a new piecewise mass-spring-damper model of a breast was developed with theoretical equations to derive values for its spring constants and damping coefficients from free-falling breast experiments. The effective breast mass was estimated from the breast volume extracted from a 3D body scanned image. The derived spring constant (k a  = 73.5 N m -1 ) above the static equilibrium position was significantly smaller than that below it (k b  = 658 N m -1 ), whereas the respective damping coefficients were similar (c a  = 1.83 N s m -1 , c b  = 2.07 N s m -1 ). These values were used to predict the nipple displacement during bare-breasted running for validation. The predicted and experimental results had a 2.6% or less root-mean-square-error of the theoretical and experimental amplitudes, so the piecewise mass-spring-damper model and equations were considered to have been successfully validated. This provides a theoretical basis for further research into the dynamic, nonlinear viscoelastic properties of different breasts and the prediction of external forces for the necessary breast support during different sports activities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of winter and spring temperatures on temperate tree budburst dates: results from an experimental climate manipulation.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Campioli, Matteo; Deckmyn, Gaby; Janssens, Ivan A

2012-01-01

Budburst phenology is a key driver of ecosystem structure and functioning, and it is sensitive to global change. Both cold winter temperatures (chilling) and spring warming (forcing) are important for budburst. Future climate warming is expected to have a contrasting effect on chilling and forcing, and subsequently to have a non-linear effect on budburst timing. To clarify the different effects of warming during chilling and forcing phases of budburst phenology in deciduous trees, (i) we conducted a temperature manipulation experiment, with separate winter and spring warming treatments on well irrigated and fertilized saplings of beech, birch and oak, and (ii) we analyzed the observations with five temperature-based budburst models (Thermal Time model, Parallel model, Sequential model, Alternating model, and Unified model). The results show that both winter warming and spring warming significantly advanced budburst date, with the combination of winter plus spring warming accelerating budburst most. As expected, all three species were more sensitive to spring warming than to winter warming. Although the different chilling requirement, the warming sensitivity was not significantly different among the studied species. Model evaluation showed that both one- and two- phase models (without and with chilling, respectively) are able to accurately predict budburst. For beech, the Sequential model reproduced budburst dates best. For oak and birch, both Sequential model and the Thermal Time model yielded good fit with the data but the latter was slightly better in case of high parameter uncertainty. However, for late-flushing species, the Sequential model is likely be the most appropriate to predict budburst data in a future warmer climate.

Investigation of membrane mechanics using spring networks: application to red-blood-cell modelling.

PubMed

Chen, Mingzhu; Boyle, Fergal J

2014-10-01

In recent years a number of red-blood-cell (RBC) models have been proposed using spring networks to represent the RBC membrane. Some results predicted by these models agree well with experimental measurements. However, the suitability of these membrane models has been questioned. The RBC membrane, like a continuum membrane, is mechanically isotropic throughout its surface, but the mechanical properties of a spring network vary on the network surface and change with deformation. In this work spring-network mechanics are investigated in large deformation for the first time via an assessment of the effect of network parameters, i.e. network mesh, spring type and surface constraint. It is found that a spring network is conditionally equivalent to a continuum membrane. In addition, spring networks are employed for RBC modelling to replicate the optical tweezers test. It is found that a spring network is sufficient for modelling the RBC membrane but strain-hardening springs are required. Moreover, the deformation profile of a spring network is presented for the first time via the degree of shear. It is found that spring-network deformation approaches continuous as the mesh density increases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite element fatigue analysis of rectangular clutch spring of automatic slack adjuster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chen-jie; Luo, Zai; Hu, Xiao-feng; Jiang, Wen-song

2015-02-01

The failure of rectangular clutch spring of automatic slack adjuster directly affects the work of automatic slack adjuster. We establish the structural mechanics model of automatic slack adjuster rectangular clutch spring based on its working principle and mechanical structure. In addition, we upload such structural mechanics model to ANSYS Workbench FEA system to predict the fatigue life of rectangular clutch spring. FEA results show that the fatigue life of rectangular clutch spring is 2.0403×105 cycle under the effect of braking loads. In the meantime, fatigue tests of 20 automatic slack adjusters are carried out on the fatigue test bench to verify the conclusion of the structural mechanics model. The experimental results show that the mean fatigue life of rectangular clutch spring is 1.9101×105, which meets the results based on the finite element analysis using ANSYS Workbench FEA system.

Conception, analyse et caracterisation des proprietes mecaniques de ressorts composites a renfort tresse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebdi, Oussama

High performance composites reinforced by woven or braided fabrics have several different applications in various fields such as in the aerospace, automobile and marine industry. This research project was carried out at the Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal in collaboration with an industrial sponsor, the company Composites Atlantic Ltd. Composite springs often represent an interesting alternative, given the reduction in weight that they allow with equal mechanical performance compared to metallic springs. Their good resistance to fatigue and corrosion bring additional benefits in several industrial applications. Moreover, the use of the composites increases safety by avoiding the risks of brutal rupture because of the low propagation velocity of cracks in this type of material. Lastly, in electrotechnics, another significant advantage comes into play because of the electrical insulation capability of composite springs. Few research results can be found on composite springs in the scientific literature. The first part of this thesis studies the problems connected with the design of composite springs. The results are promising, because it was confirmed that composite springs can be devised with the same mechanical performance in term of stiffness as metallic ones. Two solutions were found to replace the metallic springs of the suspension of a four wheel drive: the first spring was in carbon-epoxy, and the second one in glass-epoxy. In the second part, software was developed in order to devise a new approach to predict the mechanical properties of woven or braided composites. This work shows how an inverse method based on plate laminate theory allows creating, from experimental results on braided composites, a virtual basic ply that includes the effect of fiber architecture (undulation and braiding angle). Using this model, the properties of the composite can be predicted for any braid angle. The comparison with the experimental results shows a good correlation with numerical predictions. In third part, an experimental study on creep was conducted on composite plates manufactured with the same constitutive materials as the composite springs. Creep tests in three point bending were carried out with Q800 DMA machine. The results showed that creep behavior depends primarily on the polymer matrix. However, rigidity is a function of the fiber-matrix mixture. The braiding angle of 35° corresponds to a characteristic threshold for braided composites: beyond this value, rigidity falls in a creep test at a temperature higher than Tg. It represents also a critical angle in bending or in tensile tests. Above 35°, the failure mode of the composite goes from fragile (rupture of fibers) to a mixed mode, in which the polymer matrix comes also into play with fibers. A good stability was observed for the composites with a braiding angle lower than +/- 35° or higher than +/-60°. Long-term tests were also carried out for two braided composites at +/- 45° and +/- 55° in order to check the predictive model of the DMA. The shift factors obtained from the short and long term tests are roughly equal. This thesis has set the ground for the future development on industrial applications of composite springs. The design software predicts the mechanical effectiveness of helical composite springs. The software developed to predict the elastic properties of braided composites accelerates the preparation of characterization results for the design stage. This numerical tool could be generalized for other fiber architectures. It represents a practical tool for further investigations. Finally, the study on creep, although preliminary, provides a first evaluation of the life cycle of composite springs. It would be interesting to proceed now to the design of a first industrial application.

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haun, J. R.

1975-01-01

The growth-environment relationships for greenhouse and field conditions are compared, and the development of growth-prediction models for spring wheat is discussed along with the development of models for predicting the date for spring wheat emergence in North Dakota.

Prediction of Process-Induced Distortions in L-Shaped Composite Profiles Using Path-Dependent Constitutive Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Anxin; Li, Shuxin; Wang, Jihui; Ni, Aiqing; Sun, Liangliang; Chang, Lei

2016-10-01

In this paper, the corner spring-in angles of AS4/8552 L-shaped composite profiles with different thicknesses are predicted using path-dependent constitutive law with the consideration of material properties variation due to phase change during curing. The prediction accuracy mainly depends on the properties in the rubbery and glassy states obtained by homogenization method rather than experimental measurements. Both analytical and finite element (FE) homogenization methods are applied to predict the overall properties of AS4/8552 composite. The effect of fiber volume fraction on the properties is investigated for both rubbery and glassy states using both methods. And the predicted results are compared with experimental measurements for the glassy state. Good agreement is achieved between the predicted results and available experimental data, showing the reliability of the homogenization method. Furthermore, the corner spring-in angles of L-shaped composite profiles are measured experimentally and the reliability of path-dependent constitutive law is validated as well as the properties prediction by FE homogenization method.

The full annual carbon balance of a subtropical coniferous plantation is highly sensitive to autumn precipitation.

PubMed

Xu, Mingjie; Wang, Huimin; Wen, Xuefa; Zhang, Tao; Di, Yuebao; Wang, Yidong; Wang, Jianlei; Cheng, Chuanpeng; Zhang, Wenjiang

2017-08-30

Deep understanding of the effects of precipitation on carbon budgets is essential to assess the carbon balance accurately and can help predict potential variation within the global change context. Therefore, we addressed this issue by analyzing twelve years (2003-2014) of observations of carbon fluxes and their corresponding temperature and precipitation data in a subtropical coniferous plantation at the Qianyanzhou (QYZ) site, southern China. During the observation years, this coniferous ecosystem experienced four cold springs whose effects on the carbon budgets were relatively clear based on previous studies. To unravel the effects of temperature and precipitation, the effects of autumn precipitation were examined by grouping the data into two pools based on whether the years experienced cold springs. The results indicated that precipitation in autumn can accelerate the gross primary productivity (GPP) of the following year. Meanwhile, divergent effects of precipitation on ecosystem respiration (Re) were found. Autumn precipitation was found to enhance Re in normal years but the same regulation was not found in the cold-spring years. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of carbon balance in global climate change projections, the effects of precipitation must be considered to better constrain the uncertainties associated with the estimation.

Predicting the timing and potential of the spring emergence of overwintered populations of Heliothis spp

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartstack, A. W.; Witz, J. A.; Lopez, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The current state of knowledge dealing with the prediction of the overwintering population and spring emergence of Heliothis spp., a serious pest of numerous crops is surveyed. Current literature is reviewed in detail. Temperature and day length are the primary factors which program H. spp. larva for possible diapause. Although studies on the interaction of temperature and day length are reported, the complete diapause induction process is not identified sufficiently to allow accurate prediction of diapause timing. Mortality during diapause is reported as highly variable. The factors causing mortality are identified, but only a few are quantified. The spring emergence of overwintering H. spp. adults and mathematical models which predict the timing of emergence are reviewed. Timing predictions compare favorably to observed field data; however, prediction of actual numbers of emerging moths is not possible. The potential for use of spring emergence predictions in pest management applications, as an early warning of potential crop damage, are excellent. Research requirements to develop such an early warning system are discussed.

Anomalously Soft Non-Euclidean Springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Ido; Sharon, Eran

2016-01-01

In this work we study the mechanical properties of a frustrated elastic ribbon spring—the non-Euclidean minimal spring. This spring belongs to the family of non-Euclidean plates: it has no spontaneous curvature, but its lateral intrinsic geometry is described by a non-Euclidean reference metric. The reference metric of the minimal spring is hyperbolic, and can be embedded as a minimal surface. We argue that the existence of a continuous set of such isometric minimal surfaces with different extensions leads to a complete degeneracy of the bulk elastic energy of the minimal spring under elongation. This degeneracy is removed only by boundary layer effects. As a result, the mechanical properties of the minimal spring are unusual: the spring is ultrasoft with a rigidity that depends on the thickness t as t7 /2 and does not explicitly depend on the ribbon's width. Moreover, we show that as the ribbon is widened, the rigidity may even decrease. These predictions are confirmed by a numerical study of a constrained spring. This work is the first to address the unusual mechanical properties of constrained non-Euclidean elastic objects.

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Seasonal prediction and predictability of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qiong; Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe; Zhang, Ruonan

2018-01-01

The spring snow water equivalent (SWE) over Eurasia plays an important role in East Asian and Indian monsoon rainfall. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction capability of NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) retrospective forecasts (1983-2010) for the Eurasian spring SWE. The results demonstrate that CFSv2 is able to represent the climatological distribution of the observed Eurasian spring SWE with a lead time of 1-3 months, with the maximum SWE occurring over western Siberia and Northeastern Europe. For a longer lead time, the SWE is exaggerated in CFSv2 because the start of snow ablation in CFSv2 lags behind that of the observation, and the simulated snowmelt rate is less than that in the observation. Generally, CFSv2 can simulate the interannual variations of the Eurasian spring SWE 1-5 months ahead of time but with an exaggerated magnitude. Additionally, the downtrend in CFSv2 is also overestimated. Because the initial conditions (ICs) are related to the corresponding simulation results significantly, the robust interannual variability and the downtrend in the ICs are most likely the causes for these biases. Moreover, CFSv2 exhibits a high potential predictability for the Eurasian spring SWE, especially the spring SWE over Siberia, with a lead time of 1-5 months. For forecasts with lead times longer than 5 months, the model predictability gradually decreases mainly due to the rapid decrease in the model signal.

The role of model errors represented by nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" within ENSO predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Wansuo; Zhao, Peng

2017-04-01

Within the Zebiak-Cane model, the nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) approach is used to investigate the role of model errors in the "Spring Predictability Barrier" (SPB) phenomenon within ENSO predictions. NFSV-related errors have the largest negative effect on the uncertainties of El Niño predictions. NFSV errors can be classified into two types: the first is characterized by a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies (SSTA), with the western poles centered in the equatorial central-western Pacific exhibiting positive anomalies and the eastern poles in the equatorial eastern Pacific exhibiting negative anomalies; and the second is characterized by a pattern almost opposite the first type. The first type of error tends to have the worst effects on El Niño growth-phase predictions, whereas the latter often yields the largest negative effects on decaying-phase predictions. The evolution of prediction errors caused by NFSV-related errors exhibits prominent seasonality, with the fastest error growth in the spring and/or summer seasons; hence, these errors result in a significant SPB related to El Niño events. The linear counterpart of NFSVs, the (linear) forcing singular vector (FSV), induces a less significant SPB because it contains smaller prediction errors. Random errors cannot generate a SPB for El Niño events. These results show that the occurrence of an SPB is related to the spatial patterns of tendency errors. The NFSV tendency errors cause the most significant SPB for El Niño events. In addition, NFSVs often concentrate these large value errors in a few areas within the equatorial eastern and central-western Pacific, which likely represent those areas sensitive to El Niño predictions associated with model errors. Meanwhile, these areas are also exactly consistent with the sensitive areas related to initial errors determined by previous studies. This implies that additional observations in the sensitive areas would not only improve the accuracy of the initial field but also promote the reduction of model errors to greatly improve ENSO forecasts.

Influence of spring phenology on seasonal and annual carbon balance in two contrasting New England forests.

PubMed

Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Dail, D Bryan; Lee, John T; Munger, J William; O'keefe, John

2009-03-01

Spring phenology is thought to exert a major influence on the carbon (C) balance of temperate and boreal ecosystems. We investigated this hypothesis using four spring onset phenological indicators in conjunction with surface-atmosphere CO(2) exchange data from the conifer-dominated Howland Forest and deciduous-dominated Harvard Forest AmeriFlux sites. All phenological measures, including CO(2) source-sink transition dates, could be well predicted on the basis of a simple two-parameter spring warming model, indicating good potential for improving the representation of phenological transitions and their dynamic responsiveness to climate variability in land surface models. The date at which canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity reached a threshold value of 12 micromol m(-2) s(-1) was better correlated with spring and annual flux integrals than were either deciduous or coniferous bud burst dates. For all phenological indicators, earlier spring onset consistently, but not always significantly, resulted in higher gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) for both seasonal (spring months, April-June) and annual flux integrals. The increase in RE was less than that in GPP; depending on the phenological indicator used, a one-day advance in spring onset increased springtime net ecosystem productivity (NEP) by 2-4 g C m(-2) day(-1). In general, we could not detect significant differences between the two forest types in response to earlier spring, although the response to earlier spring was generally more pronounced for Harvard Forest than for Howland Forest, suggesting that future climate warming may favor deciduous species over coniferous species, at least in this region. The effect of earlier spring tended to be about twice as large when annual rather than springtime flux integrals were considered. This result is suggestive of both immediate and lagged effects of earlier spring onset on ecosystem C cycling, perhaps as a result of accelerated N cycling rates and cascading effects on N uptake, foliar N concentrations and photosynthetic capacity.

Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tuantuan; Huang, Bohua; Yang, Song; Laohalertchai, Charoon

2018-06-01

The seasonal dependence of the prediction skill of 850-hPa monthly zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain is examined using the ensemble reforecasts for 1983-2010 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. According to a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis, the most predictable patterns of atmospheric low-level circulation are associated with the developing and maturing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFSv2 is capable of predicting these ENSO-related patterns up to 9-months in advance for all months, except for May-June when the effect of the spring barrier is strong. The other predictable climate processes associated with the low-level atmospheric circulation are more seasonally dependent. For winter and spring, the second most predictable patterns are associated with the ENSO decaying phase. Within these seasons, the monthly evolution of the predictable patterns is characterized by a southward shift of westerly wind anomalies, generated by the interaction between the annual cycle and the ENSO signals (i.e., the combination-mode). In general, the CFSv2 hindcast well predicts these patterns at least 5 months in advance for spring, while shows much lower skills for winter months. In summer, the second predictable patterns are associated with the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon (i.e., the WNP anticyclone/cyclone) in short leads while associated with ENSO in longer leads (after 4-month lead). The second predictable patterns in fall are mainly associated with tropical Indian Ocean Dipole, which can be predicted 3 months in advance.

Spring assisted cranioplasty: A patient specific computational model.

PubMed

Borghi, Alessandro; Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Rodgers, Will; James, Gregory; Hayward, Richard; Dunaway, David; Jeelani, Owase; Schievano, Silvia

2018-03-01

Implantation of spring-like distractors in the treatment of sagittal craniosynostosis is a novel technique that has proven functionally and aesthetically effective in correcting skull deformities; however, final shape outcomes remain moderately unpredictable due to an incomplete understanding of the skull-distractor interaction. The aim of this study was to create a patient specific computational model of spring assisted cranioplasty (SAC) that can help predict the individual overall final head shape. Pre-operative computed tomography images of a SAC patient were processed to extract a 3D model of the infant skull anatomy and simulate spring implantation. The distractors were modeled based on mechanical experimental data. Viscoelastic bone properties from the literature were tuned using the specific patient procedural information recorded during surgery and from x-ray measurements at follow-up. The model accurately captured spring expansion on-table (within 9% of the measured values), as well as at first and second follow-ups (within 8% of the measured values). Comparison between immediate post-operative 3D head scanning and numerical results for this patient proved that the model could successfully predict the final overall head shape. This preliminary work showed the potential application of computational modeling to study SAC, to support pre-operative planning and guide novel distractor design. Copyright © 2018 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Integrating multiple genomic data to predict disease-causing nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants in exome sequencing studies.

PubMed

Wu, Jiaxin; Li, Yanda; Jiang, Rui

2014-03-01

Exome sequencing has been widely used in detecting pathogenic nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants (SNVs) for human inherited diseases. However, traditional statistical genetics methods are ineffective in analyzing exome sequencing data, due to such facts as the large number of sequenced variants, the presence of non-negligible fraction of pathogenic rare variants or de novo mutations, and the limited size of affected and normal populations. Indeed, prevalent applications of exome sequencing have been appealing for an effective computational method for identifying causative nonsynonymous SNVs from a large number of sequenced variants. Here, we propose a bioinformatics approach called SPRING (Snv PRioritization via the INtegration of Genomic data) for identifying pathogenic nonsynonymous SNVs for a given query disease. Based on six functional effect scores calculated by existing methods (SIFT, PolyPhen2, LRT, MutationTaster, GERP and PhyloP) and five association scores derived from a variety of genomic data sources (gene ontology, protein-protein interactions, protein sequences, protein domain annotations and gene pathway annotations), SPRING calculates the statistical significance that an SNV is causative for a query disease and hence provides a means of prioritizing candidate SNVs. With a series of comprehensive validation experiments, we demonstrate that SPRING is valid for diseases whose genetic bases are either partly known or completely unknown and effective for diseases with a variety of inheritance styles. In applications of our method to real exome sequencing data sets, we show the capability of SPRING in detecting causative de novo mutations for autism, epileptic encephalopathies and intellectual disability. We further provide an online service, the standalone software and genome-wide predictions of causative SNVs for 5,080 diseases at http://bioinfo.au.tsinghua.edu.cn/spring.

Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Gotthard, Karl; Leimar, Olof

2017-07-01

Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Development of Predicted Paths for ACT Aspire Score Reports. WP-2014-06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Jeff

2014-01-01

This report focuses on the initial development of the predicted score paths for ACT Aspire reporting. The paths provide predicted score ranges for the next two years--as well as predicted ACT score ranges for tests administered at grades 9 and 10. Longitudinal ACT Aspire data for students tested in spring 2013 and spring 2014, as well as…

Maintenance of equilibrium point control during an unexpectedly loaded rapid limb movement.

PubMed

Simmons, R W; Richardson, C

1984-06-08

Two experiments investigated whether the equilibrium point hypothesis or the mass-spring model of motor control subserves positioning accuracy during spring loaded, rapid, bi-articulated movement. For intact preparations, the equilibrium point hypothesis predicts response accuracy to be determined by a mixture of afferent and efferent information, whereas the mass-spring model predicts positioning to be under a direct control system. Subjects completed a series of load-resisted training trials to a spatial target. The magnitude of a sustained spring load was unexpectedly increased on selected trials. Results indicated positioning accuracy and applied force varied with increases in load, which suggests that the original efferent commands are modified by afferent information during the movement as predicted by the equilibrium point hypothesis.

Asynchrony in host and parasite phenology may decrease disease risk in livestock under climate warming: Nematodirus battus in lambs as a case study.

PubMed

Gethings, Owen J; Rose, Hannah; Mitchell, Siân; Van Dijk, Jan; Morgan, Eric R

2015-09-01

Mismatch in the phenology of trophically linked species as a result of climate warming has been shown to have far-reaching effects on animal communities, but implications for disease have so far received limited attention. This paper presents evidence suggestive of phenological asynchrony in a host-parasite system arising from climate change, with impacts on transmission. Diagnostic laboratory data on outbreaks of infection with the pathogenic nematode Nematodirus battus in sheep flocks in the UK were used to validate region-specific models of the effect of spring temperature on parasite transmission. The hatching of parasite eggs to produce infective larvae is driven by temperature, while the availability of susceptible hosts depends on lambing date, which is relatively insensitive to inter-annual variation in spring temperature. In southern areas and in warmer years, earlier emergence of infective larvae in spring was predicted, with decline through mortality before peak availability of susceptible lambs. Data confirmed model predictions, with fewer outbreaks recorded in those years and regions. Overlap between larval peaks and lamb availability was not reduced in northern areas, which experienced no decreases in the number of reported outbreaks. Results suggest that phenological asynchrony arising from climate warming may affect parasite transmission, with non-linear but predictable impacts on disease burden. Improved understanding of complex responses of host-parasite systems to climate change can contribute to effective adaptation of parasite control strategies.

First-grade classroom behavior: its short- and long-term consequences for school performance.

PubMed

Alexander, K L; Entwisle, D R; Dauber, S L

1993-06-01

Effects of children's classroom behavior on school performance over a 4-year period are examined for a large, representative panel of beginning first graders. Scales developed from homeroom teachers' ratings of children in the spring of their first, second, and fourth years of school are used to predict spring marks in reading and math and spring scores on verbal and quantitative subtests from the CAT battery. The teachers' ratings cluster in three domains: Interest-Participation (I-P), Cooperation-Compliance (C-C), and Attention Span-Restlessness (A-R). The I-P and A-R ratings, but not C-C ratings, affect test score gains in first grade and marks in all 3 years. Behavior ratings from Year 1 also affect Year 2 and Year 4 performance, with indications that effects are understated over single-year periods. The importance of assessing classroom behavior in a longitudinal framework that allows for lagged and cumulative effects is discussed.

Effects of classroom organization on letter-word reading in first grade.

PubMed

Cameron, Claire E; Connor, Carol McDonald; Morrison, Frederick J; Jewkes, Abigail M

2008-04-01

Teacher organization is a crucial part of classroom functioning; however, its relation to student achievement has not been investigated as extensively as that of instruction. In this study, organization is defined as the amount of time teachers spend explaining the purpose and procedures of learning activities and daily routines. Data from first-grade classrooms (N=44) observed three times during the school year (fall, winter, and spring) are analyzed, along with students' (N=108) literacy skills at fall and spring. Hierarchical Linear Modeling reveals that, controlling for students' fall word reading and vocabulary skills, as well as amount of language arts instruction they receive, both amount and change in amount over time in classroom organization significantly predicts spring word reading skills. Specifically, children in classrooms observed in higher amounts of classroom time in organization at the beginning of the school year, followed by sharp decreases over the school year, demonstrated stronger letter and word reading skills by spring, and this was a main effect (p<.05). Practical and research implications are discussed.

Anomalously soft non-Euclidean spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Ido; Sharon, Eran

In this work we study the mechanical properties of a frustrated elastic ribbon spring - the non-Euclidean minimal spring. This spring belongs to the family of non-Euclidean plates: it has no spontaneous curvature, but its lateral intrinsic geometry is described by a non-Euclidean reference metric. The reference metric of the minimal spring is hyperbolic, and can be embedded as a minimal surface. We argue that the existence of a continuous set of such isometric minimal surfaces with different extensions leads to a complete degeneracy of the bulk elastic energy of the minimal spring under elongation. This degeneracy is removed only by boundary layer effects. As a result, the mechanical properties of the minimal spring are unusual: the spring is ultra-soft with rigidity that depends on the thickness, t , as t raise 0 . 7 ex 7 7 2 lower 0 . 7 ex 2, and does not explicitly depend on the ribbon's width. These predictions are confirmed by a numerical study of a constrained spring. This work is the first to address the unusual mechanical properties of constrained non-Euclidean elastic objects. We also present a novel experimental system that is capable of constructing such objects, along with many other non-Euclidean plates.

[Effects of air temperature increase and precipitation change on grain yield and quality of spring wheat in semiarid area of Northwest China].

PubMed

Wang, He-ling; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Run-yuan; Gan, Yan-tai; Niu, Jun-yi; Zhang, Kai; Zhao, Fu-nian; Zhao, Hong

2015-01-01

In order to predict effects of climate changing on growth, quality and grain yields of spring wheat, a field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of air temperature increases (0 °C, 1.0 °C, 2.0° C and 3.0°) and precipitation variations (decrease 20%, unchanging and increase 20%) on grain yields, quality, diseases and insect pests of spring wheat at the Dingxi Arid Meteorology and Ecological Environment Experimental Station of the Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (35°35' N ,104°37' E). The results showed that effects of precipitation variations on kernel numbers of spring wheat were not significant when temperature increased by less than 2.0° C , but was significant when temperature increased by 3.0° C. Temperature increase enhanced kernel numbers, while temperature decrease reduced kernel numbers. The negative effect of temperature on thousand-kernel mass of spring wheat increased with increasing air temperature. The sterile spikelet of spring wheat response to air temperature was quadratic under all precipitation regimes. Compared with control ( no temperature increase), the decreases of grain yield of spring wheat when air temperature increased by 1.0°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C under each of the three precipitation conditions (decrease 20%, no changing and increase 20%) were 12.1%, 24.7% and 42.7%, 8.4%, 15.1% and 21.8%, and 9.0%, 15.5% and 22.2%, respectively. The starch content of spring wheat decreased and the protein content increased with increasing air temperature. The number of aphids increased when air temperature increased by 2.0°C , but decreased when air temperature increased by 3.0°CT. The infection rates of rust disease increased with increasing air temperature.

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations.

PubMed

Gerber, Brian D; Kendall, William L; Hooten, Mevin B; Dubovsky, James A; Drewien, Roderick C

2015-09-01

1. Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment. 2. Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression. 3. Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring-summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect. 4. Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond. 5. Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Muscle-spring dynamics in time-limited, elastic movements.

PubMed

Rosario, M V; Sutton, G P; Patek, S N; Sawicki, G S

2016-09-14

Muscle contractions that load in-series springs with slow speed over a long duration do maximal work and store the most elastic energy. However, time constraints, such as those experienced during escape and predation behaviours, may prevent animals from achieving maximal force capacity from their muscles during spring-loading. Here, we ask whether animals that have limited time for elastic energy storage operate with springs that are tuned to submaximal force production. To answer this question, we used a dynamic model of a muscle-spring system undergoing a fixed-end contraction, with parameters from a time-limited spring-loader (bullfrog: Lithobates catesbeiana) and a non-time-limited spring-loader (grasshopper: Schistocerca gregaria). We found that when muscles have less time to contract, stored elastic energy is maximized with lower spring stiffness (quantified as spring constant). The spring stiffness measured in bullfrog tendons permitted less elastic energy storage than was predicted by a modelled, maximal muscle contraction. However, when muscle contractions were modelled using biologically relevant loading times for bullfrog jumps (50 ms), tendon stiffness actually maximized elastic energy storage. In contrast, grasshoppers, which are not time limited, exhibited spring stiffness that maximized elastic energy storage when modelled with a maximal muscle contraction. These findings demonstrate the significance of evolutionary variation in tendon and apodeme properties to realistic jumping contexts as well as the importance of considering the effect of muscle dynamics and behavioural constraints on energy storage in muscle-spring systems. © 2016 The Author(s).

Influence of the Summer NAO on the Spring-NAO-Based Predictability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei

2017-04-01

The dominant mode of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic region is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The boreal spring NAO may imprint its signal on contemporaneous sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a North Atlantic SST tripolar pattern (NAST). This pattern persists into the following summer and modulates the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Previous studies have shown that the summer NAST is caused mainly by the preceding spring NAO, whereas the contemporaneous summer NAO plays a secondary role. The results of this study illustrate that, even if the summer NAO plays a secondary role, it may also perturb summer SST anomalies caused by the spring NAO. There are two types of perturbation caused by the summer NAO. If the spring and summer NAO patterns have the same (opposite) polarities, the summer NAST tends to be enhanced (reduced) by the summer NAO, and the correlation between the spring NAO and EASM is usually stronger (weaker). In the former (latter) case, the spring-NAO-based prediction of the EASM tends to have better (limited) skill. These results indicate that it is important to consider the evolution of the NAO when forecasting the EASM, particular when there is a clear reversal in the polarity of the NAO, because it may impair the spring-NAO-based EASM prediction.

Convection and the seeding of the North Atlantic bloom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Asaro, Eric A.

Observations of vertical velocities in deep wintertime mixed layers using neutrally buoyant floats show that the convectively driven vertical velocities, roughly 1000 m per day, greatly exceed the sinking velocities of phytoplankton, 10 m or less per day. These velocities mix plankton effectively and uniformly across the convective layer and are therefore capable of returning those that have sunk to depth back into the euphotic zone. This mechanism cycles cells through the surface layer during the winter and provides a seed population for the spring bloom. A simple model of this mechanism applied to immortal phytoplankton in the subpolar Labrador Sea predicts that the seed population in early spring will be a few percent of the fall concentration if the plankton sink more slowly than the mean rate at which the surface well-mixed layer grows over the winter. Plankton that sink faster than this will mostly sink into the abyss with only a minute fraction remaining by spring. The shallower mixed layers of mid-latitudes are predicted to be much less effective at maintaining a seed population over the winter, limiting the ability of rapidly sinking cells to survive the winter.

Behavioral self-concept as predictor of teen drinking behaviors.

PubMed

Dudovitz, Rebecca N; Li, Ning; Chung, Paul J

2013-01-01

Adolescence is a critical developmental period for self-concept (role identity). Cross-sectional studies link self-concept's behavioral conduct domain (whether teens perceive themselves as delinquent) with adolescent substance use. If self-concept actually drives substance use, then it may be an important target for intervention. In this study, we used longitudinal data from 1 school year to examine whether behavioral self-concept predicts teen drinking behaviors or vice versa. A total of 291 students from a large, predominantly Latino public high school completed a confidential computerized survey in the fall and spring of their 9th grade year. Survey measures included the frequency of alcohol use, binge drinking and at-school alcohol use in the previous 30 days; and the Harter Self-Perception Profile for Adolescents behavioral conduct subscale. Multiple regressions were performed to test whether fall self-concept predicted the frequency and type of spring drinking behavior, and whether the frequency and type of fall drinking predicted spring self-concept. Fall behavioral self-concept predicted both the frequency and type of spring drinking. Students with low versus high fall self-concept had a predicted probability of 31% versus 20% for any drinking, 20% versus 8% for binge drinking and 14% versus 4% for at-school drinking in the spring. However, neither the frequency nor the type of fall drinking significantly predicted spring self-concept. Low behavioral self-concept may precede or perhaps even drive adolescent drinking. If these results are confirmed, then prevention efforts might be enhanced by targeting high-risk teens for interventions that help develop a healthy behavioral self-concept. Copyright © 2013 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Concurrent and longitudinal associations of peers' acceptance with emotion and effortful control in kindergarten

PubMed Central

Hernández, Maciel M.; Eisenberg, Nancy; Valiente, Carlos; Diaz, Anjolii; VanSchyndel, Sarah K.; Berger, Rebecca H.; Terrell, Nathan; Silva, Kassondra M.; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Southworth, Jody

2015-01-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate bidirectional associations between peer acceptance and both emotion and effortful control during kindergarten (N = 301). In both the fall and spring semesters, we obtained peer nominations of acceptance, measures of positive and negative emotion based on naturalistic observations in school (i.e., classroom, lunch/recess), and observers’ reports of effortful control (i.e., inhibitory control, attention focusing) and emotions (i.e., positive, negative). In structural equation panel models, peer acceptance in fall predicted higher effortful control in spring. Effortful control in fall did not predict peer acceptance in spring. Negative emotion predicted lower peer acceptance across time for girls but not for boys. Peer acceptance did not predict negative or positive emotion over time. In addition, we tested interactions between positive or negative emotion and effortful control predicting peer acceptance. Positive emotion predicted higher peer acceptance for children low in effortful control. PMID:28348445

Analysis of Spring Flow Change in the Jinan City under Influences of Recent Human Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaomeng; Hu, Litang; Sun, Kangning

2018-06-01

Jinan city, the capital of Shandong Province in China, is famous for its beautiful springs. With the rapid development of the economy in recent years, water demand in Jinan city has been increasing rapidly. The over-exploitation of groundwater has caused a decline in groundwater level and, notably, dried up springs under extreme climate conditions. To keep the springs gushing perennially and sustainably use groundwater resources, the local government has implemented many measures to restore the water table, such as the Sponge City Construction Project in Jinan. Focusing on changes in spring flow and its impact factors in Jinan, this paper analyzes the changes in observed spring flow in the most recent 50 years and then discusses the causes of decreases in the spring flow with the consideration of climate and human activities. Spring flow in the study area was changed from the natural state to a period of multiwater source management. The artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to demonstrate the relationship among spring flow, precipitation, and groundwater abstraction to predict the variations of spring flow under the conditions of climate change and human activities. The good agreement between the simulated and observed results indicates that both precipitation and exploitation are important influence factors. However the effective infiltration of precipitation into groundwater is the most influential factor. The results can provide guidance for groundwater resource protection in the Jinan spring catchment.

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur

2018-01-01

The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.

Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

2015-12-01

The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

Interactions between a Candidate Gene for Migration (ADCYAP1), Morphology and Sex Predict Spring Arrival in Blackcap Populations.

PubMed

Mettler, Raeann; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2015-01-01

Avian research has begun to reveal associations between candidate genes and migratory behaviors of captive birds, yet few studies utilize genotypic, morphometric, and phenological data from wild individuals. Previous studies have identified an association between ADCYAP1 polymorphism and autumn migratory behavior (restlessness, or zugunruhe), but little is known about the relationship between ADCYAP1 and spring migratory behavior. The timing of spring migration and arrival to the breeding ground are phenological traits which could be particularly favorable for establishing territories and acquiring mates, thus important to fitness and reproductive success. Here, we investigated how individual genotypic ADCYAP1 variation and phenotypic variation (wing length and shape) of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) affect spring arrival date across nine natural populations in Europe. We hypothesized that longer alleles should be associated with earlier spring arrival dates and expected the effect on arrival date to be stronger for males as they arrive earlier. However, we found that longer wings were associated with earlier spring arrival to the breeding grounds for females, but not for males. Another female-specific effect indicated an interaction between ADCYAP1 allele size and wing pointedness on the response of spring arrival: greater allele size had a positive effect on spring arrival date for females with rounder wings, while a negative effect was apparent for females with more pointed wings. Also, female heterozygotes with pointed wing tips arrived significantly earlier than both homozygotes with pointed wings and heterozygotes with round wings. Stable isotope ratios (δ2H) of a subset of blackcaps captured in Freiburg in 2011 allowed us also to assign individuals to their main overwintering areas in northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) Europe. NW males arrived significantly earlier to the Freiburg breeding site than both SW males and females in 2011. NW females had more pointed wing tips compared to SW females, but no difference in ADCYAP1 allele size was found between the different migration routes.

GIS-based groundwater potential mapping using boosted regression tree, classification and regression tree, and random forest machine learning models in Iran.

PubMed

Naghibi, Seyed Amir; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Dixon, Barnali

2016-01-01

Groundwater is considered one of the most valuable fresh water resources. The main objective of this study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps in the Koohrang Watershed, Chaharmahal-e-Bakhtiari Province, Iran, using three machine learning models: boosted regression tree (BRT), classification and regression tree (CART), and random forest (RF). Thirteen hydrological-geological-physiographical (HGP) factors that influence locations of springs were considered in this research. These factors include slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), slope length (LS), plan curvature, profile curvature, distance to rivers, distance to faults, lithology, land use, drainage density, and fault density. Subsequently, groundwater spring potential was modeled and mapped using CART, RF, and BRT algorithms. The predicted results from the three models were validated using the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC). From 864 springs identified, 605 (≈70 %) locations were used for the spring potential mapping, while the remaining 259 (≈30 %) springs were used for the model validation. The area under the curve (AUC) for the BRT model was calculated as 0.8103 and for CART and RF the AUC were 0.7870 and 0.7119, respectively. Therefore, it was concluded that the BRT model produced the best prediction results while predicting locations of springs followed by CART and RF models, respectively. Geospatially integrated BRT, CART, and RF methods proved to be useful in generating the spring potential map (SPM) with reasonable accuracy.

Application of dimensionless sediment rating curves to predict suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, and annual sediment loads for rivers in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Groten, Joel T.; Lorenz, David L.; Koller, Karl S.

2016-10-27

Consistent and reliable sediment data are needed by Federal, State, and local government agencies responsible for monitoring water quality, planning river restoration, quantifying sediment budgets, and evaluating the effectiveness of sediment reduction strategies. Heightened concerns about excessive sediment in rivers and the challenge to reduce costs and eliminate data gaps has guided Federal and State interests in pursuing alternative methods for measuring suspended and bedload sediment. Simple and dependable data collection and estimation techniques are needed to generate hydraulic and water-quality information for areas where data are unavailable or difficult to collect.The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed a study to evaluate the use of dimensionless sediment rating curves (DSRCs) to accurately predict suspended-sediment concentrations (SSCs), bedload, and annual sediment loads for selected rivers and streams in Minnesota based on data collected during 2007 through 2013. This study included the application of DSRC models developed for a small group of streams located in the San Juan River Basin near Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado to rivers in Minnesota. Regionally based DSRC models for Minnesota also were developed and compared to DSRC models from Pagosa Springs, Colorado, to evaluate which model provided more accurate predictions of SSCs and bedload in Minnesota.Multiple measures of goodness-of-fit were developed to assess the effectiveness of DSRC models in predicting SSC and bedload for rivers in Minnesota. More than 600 dimensionless ratio values of SSC, bedload, and streamflow were evaluated and delineated according to Pfankuch stream stability categories of “good/fair” and “poor” to develop four Minnesota-based DSRC models. The basis for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota DSRC model effectiveness was founded on measures of goodness-of-fit that included proximity of the model(s) fitted line to the 95-percent confidence intervals of the site-specific model, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, model biases, and deviation of annual sediment loads from each model to the annual sediment loads calculated from measured data.Composite plots comparing Pagosa Springs DSRCs, Minnesota DSRCs, site-specific regression models, and measured data indicated that regionally developed DSRCs (Minnesota DSRC models) more closely approximated measured data for nearly every site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models had markedly larger exponents (slopes) when compared to the Minnesota DSRC models and the site-specific regression models, and over-represent SSC and bedload at streamflows exceeding bankfull. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for the Minnesota DSRC model for suspended-sediment concentrations closely matched Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of the site-specific regression models for 12 out of 16 sites. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values associated with Minnesota DSRCs were greater than those associated with Pagosa Springs DSRCs for every site except the Whitewater River near Beaver, Minnesota site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models were less accurate than the mean of the measured data at predicting SSC values for one-half of the sites for good/fair stability sites and one-half of the sites for poor stability sites. Relative model biases were calculated and determined to be substantial (greater than 5 percent) for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota models, with Minnesota models having a lower mean model bias. For predicted annual suspended-sediment loads (SSL), the Minnesota DSRC models for good/fair and poor stream stability sites more closely approximated the annual SSLs calculated from the measured data as compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC model.Results of data analyses indicate that DSRC models developed using data collected in Minnesota were more effective at compensating for differences in individual stream characteristics across a variety of basin sizes and flow regimes than DSRC models developed using data collected for Pagosa Springs, Colorado. Minnesota DSRC models retained a substantial portion of the unique sediment signatures for most rivers, although deviations were observed for streams with limited sediment supply and for rivers in southeastern Minnesota, which had markedly larger regression exponents. Compared to Pagosa Springs DSRC models, Minnesota DSRC models had regression slopes that more closely matched the slopes of site-specific regression models, had greater Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, had lower model biases, and approximated measured annual sediment loads more closely. The results presented in this report indicate that regionally based DSRCs can be used to estimate reasonably accurate values of SSC and bedload.Practitioners are cautioned that DSRC reliability is dependent on representative measures of bankfull streamflow, SSC, and bedload. It is, therefore, important that samples of SSC and bedload, which will be used for estimating SSC and bedload at the bankfull streamflow, are collected over a range of conditions that includes the ascending and descending limbs of the event hydrograph. The use of DSRC models may have substantial limitations for certain conditions. For example, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC and sediment loads for extreme streamflows, such as those that exceed twice the bankfull streamflow value because this constitutes conditions beyond the realm of current (2016) empirical modeling capability. Also, if relations between SSC and streamflow and between bedload and streamflow are not statistically significant, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC or bedload, as this could result in large errors. For streams that do not violate these conditions, DSRC estimates of SSC and bedload can be used for stream restoration planning and design, and for estimating annual sediment loads for streams where little or no sediment data are available.

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Northwest U.S. and later Spring-Summer Droughts/Floods over Southern Plains and Adjacent Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Diallo, I.; Li, W.; Neelin, J. D.; Chu, P. C.; Vasic, R.; Zhu, Y.; LI, Q.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recurrent droughts/floods are high-impact meteorological events. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST). However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to fully explain the extreme climate events. Remote effects of large-scale spring land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) variability in Northwest U.S. over the Rocky Mountain area on later spring-summer droughts/floods over the Southern Plains and adjacent areas, however, have been largely ignored. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over Northwest U.S. is closely associated with summer precipitation anomalies in Southern Plains: negative/positive spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the Southern Plains. The global and regional weather forecast models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship. The modeling study suggests that the observed LST and SUBT anomalies produced about 29% and 31% of observed May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 precipitation deficit, respectively. The analyses discovered that the LST/SUBT's downstream effects are associated with a large-scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. For comparison, the SST effect was also tested and produced about 31% and 45% of the May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 drought conditions, respectively. This study suggests that consideration of both SST and LST/SUBT anomalies are able to explain a substantial amount of variance in precipitation at sub-seasonal scale and inclusion of the LST/SUBT effect is essential to make reliable sub-seasonal and seasonal North American drought/flood predictions.

Hydrology of the North Cascades region, Washington: 2. A proposed hydrometeorological streamflow prediction method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.; Rasmussen, Lowell A.

1976-01-01

On the basis of a linear relationship between winter (October-April) precipitation and annual runoff from a drainage basin (Rasmussen and Tangborn, 1976) a physically reasonable model for predicting summer (May-September) streamflow from drainages in the North Cascades region was developed. This hydrometeorological prediction method relates streamflow for a season beginning on the day of prediction to the storage (including snow, ice, soil moisture, and groundwater) on that day. The spring storage is inferred from an input-output relationship based on the principle of conservation of mass: spring storage equals winter precipitation on the basin less winter runoff from the basin and less winter evapotranspiration, which is presumed to be small. The method of prediction is based on data only from the years previous to the one for which the prediction is made, and the system is revised each year as data for the previous year become available. To improve the basin storage estimate made in late winter or early spring, a short-season runoff prediction is made. The errors resulting from this short-term prediction are used to revise the storage estimate and improve the later prediction. This considerably improves the accuracy of the later prediction, especially for periods early in the summer runoff season. The optimum length for the test period appears to be generally less than a month for east side basins and between 1 and 2 months for those on the west side of the Cascade Range. The time distribution of the total summer runoff can be predicted when this test season is used so that on May 1 monthly streamflow for the May-September season can be predicted. It was found that summer precipitation and the time of minimum storage are two error sources that were amenable to analysis. For streamflow predictions in seasons beginning in early spring the deviation of the subsequent summer precipitation from a long-period average will contribute up to 53% of the prediction error. This contribution decreases to nearly zero during the summer and then rises slightly for late summer predictions. The reason for the smaller than expected effect of summer precipitation is thought to be due to the compensating effect of increased evaporative losses and increased infiltration when precipitation is greater than normal during the summer months. The error caused by the beginning winter month (assumed to be October in this study) not coinciding with the time of minimum storage was examined; it appears that October may be the best average beginning winter month for most drainages but that a more detailed study is needed. The optimum beginning of the winter season appears to vary from August to October when individual years are examined. These results demonstrate that standard precipitation and runoff measurements in the North Cascades region are adequate for constructing a predictive hydrologic model. This model can be used to make streamflow predictions that compare favorably with current multiple regression methods based on mountain snow surveys. This method has the added advantages of predicting the space and time distributions of storage and summer runoff.

A new seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Chen, Min; Melaas, Eli K; Gray, Josh M; Friedl, Mark A; Richardson, Andrew D

2016-11-01

A spring phenology model that combines photoperiod with accumulated heating and chilling to predict spring leaf-out dates is optimized using PhenoCam observations and coupled into the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5. In head-to-head comparison (using satellite data from 2003 to 2013 for validation) for model grid cells over the Northern Hemisphere deciduous broadleaf forests (5.5 million km 2 ), we found that the revised model substantially outperformed the standard CLM seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel at both coarse (0.9 × 1.25°) and fine (1 km) scales. The revised model also does a better job of representing recent (decadal) phenological trends observed globally by MODIS, as well as long-term trends (1950-2014) in the PEP725 European phenology dataset. Moreover, forward model runs suggested a stronger advancement (up to 11 days) of spring leaf-out by the end of the 21st century for the revised model. Trends toward earlier advancement are predicted for deciduous forests across the whole Northern Hemisphere boreal and temperate deciduous forest region for the revised model, whereas the standard model predicts earlier leaf-out in colder regions, but later leaf-out in warmer regions, and no trend globally. The earlier spring leaf-out predicted by the revised model resulted in enhanced gross primary production (up to 0.6 Pg C yr -1 ) and evapotranspiration (up to 24 mm yr -1 ) when results were integrated across the study region. These results suggest that the standard seasonal-deciduous submodel in CLM should be reconsidered, otherwise substantial errors in predictions of key land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks may result. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying model-structure- and parameter-driven uncertainties in spring wheat phenology prediction with Bayesian analysis

DOE PAGES

Alderman, Phillip D.; Stanfill, Bryan

2016-10-06

Recent international efforts have brought renewed emphasis on the comparison of different agricultural systems models. Thus far, analysis of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between ensemble prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. Additionally, despite increasing use of Bayesian parameter estimation approaches with field-scale crop models, inadequate attention has been given to the full posterior distributions for estimated parameters. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of parameter value uncertainty on prediction uncertainty for modeling spring wheat phenology using Bayesian analysis and to assess the relativemore » contributions of model-structure-driven and parameter-value-driven uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty. This study used a random walk Metropolis algorithm to estimate parameters for 30 spring wheat genotypes using nine phenology models based on multi-location trial data for days to heading and days to maturity. Across all cases, parameter-driven uncertainty accounted for between 19 and 52% of predictive uncertainty, while model-structure-driven uncertainty accounted for between 12 and 64%. Here, this study demonstrated the importance of quantifying both model-structure- and parameter-value-driven uncertainty when assessing overall prediction uncertainty in modeling spring wheat phenology. More generally, Bayesian parameter estimation provided a useful framework for quantifying and analyzing sources of prediction uncertainty.« less

Spring Break versus Spring Broken: Predictive Utility of Spring Break Alcohol Intentions and Willingness at Varying Levels of Extremity

PubMed Central

Litt, Dana M.; Lewis, Melissa A.; Patrick, Megan E.; Rodriguez, Lindsey; Neighbors, Clayton; Kaysen, Debra L.

2013-01-01

Objective Within the domain of risk-related behavior, many times the decision to engage is not a product of premeditation or intention. The Prototype Willingness model was created to capture and explain the unintended element of risk behavior. The present study aimed to evaluate the importance of willingness versus intention, two important constructs within the Prototype Willingness model, in relation to Spring Break drinking behavior when assessed at both high and low extremities. Method College undergraduates (N = 275) completed questionnaires prior to Spring Break regarding their anticipated Spring Break activities. Willingness and intention were assessed for different levels of risk. Specifically, participants indicated the extent to which they intended to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out; and the extent to which they were willing to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out. When classes resumed following Spring Break, the students indicated the extent to which they actually (a) got drunk and (b) drank enough to black out or pass out. Results Results demonstrated that when the health-related risk was lower (i.e., getting drunk), intention was a stronger predictor of behavior than was willingness. However, as the level of risk increased (i.e., getting drunk enough to black out or pass out), willingness more strongly predicted behavior. Conclusion The present study suggests that willingness and intentions differentially predict Spring Break alcohol-related behavior depending on the extremity of behavior in question. Implications regarding alcohol interventions are discussed. PMID:23404667

Seasonal and regional differentiation of bio-optical properties within the north polar Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stramska, Malgorzata; Stramski, Dariusz; Kaczmarek, SłAwomir; Allison, David B.; Schwarz, Jill

2006-08-01

Using field data from the north polar Atlantic, we examined seasonal variability of the spectral absorption, a(λ), and backscattering, bb(λ), coefficients of surface waters in relation to phytoplankton pigments. For a given chlorophyll a concentration, the concentrations of accessory pigments were lower in spring than in summer. This effect contributed to lower chlorophyll-specific absorption of phytoplankton and total particulate matter in spring. The spring values of the green-to-blue band ratio of a(λ) were higher than the summer ratios. The blue-to-green ratios of bb(λ) were also higher in spring. The higher bb values and lower blue-to-green bb ratios in summer were likely associated with higher concentrations of detrital particles in summer compared to spring. Because the product of these band ratios of a and bb is a proxy for the blue-to-green ratio of remote-sensing reflectance, the performance of ocean color band-ratio algorithms for estimating pigments is significantly affected by seasonal shifts in the relationships between absorption, backscattering, and chlorophyll a. Our results suggest that the algorithm for the spring season would predict chlorophyll a that is higher by as much as a factor of 4-6 compared to that predicted from the summer algorithm. This indicates a need for a seasonal approach in the north polar Atlantic. However, we also found that a fairly good estimate of the particulate beam attenuation coefficient at 660 nm (a proxy for total particulate matter or particulate organic carbon concentration) can be obtained by applying a single blue-to-green band-ratio algorithm regardless of the season.

A multichain polymer slip-spring model with fluctuating number of entanglements for linear and nonlinear rheology

DOE PAGES

Ramírez-Hernández, Abelardo; Peters, Brandon L.; Andreev, Marat; ...

2015-12-15

A theoretically informed entangled polymer simulation approach is presented for description of the linear and non-linear rheology of entangled polymer melts. The approach relies on a many-chain representation and introduces the topological effects that arise from the non-crossability of molecules through effective fluctuating interactions, mediated by slip-springs, between neighboring pairs of macromolecules. The total number of slip-springs is not preserved but, instead, it is controlled through a chemical potential that determines the average molecular weight between entanglements. The behavior of the model is discussed in the context of a recent theory for description of homogeneous materials, and its relevance ismore » established by comparing its predictions to experimental linear and non-linear rheology data for a series of well-characterized linear polyisoprene melts. Furthermore, the results are shown to be in quantitative agreement with experiment and suggest that the proposed formalism may also be used to describe the dynamics of inhomogeneous systems, such as composites and copolymers. Importantly, the fundamental connection made here between our many-chain model and the well-established, thermodynamically consistent single-chain mean-field models provides a path to systematic coarse-graining for prediction of polymer rheology in structurally homogeneous and heterogeneous materials.« less

Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

PubMed

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

2015-12-01

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Record-Breaking Early Flowering in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Ellwood, Elizabeth R.; Temple, Stanley A.; Primack, Richard B.; Davis, Charles C.

2013-01-01

Flowering times are well-documented indicators of the ecological effects of climate change and are linked to numerous ecosystem processes and trophic interactions. Dozens of studies have shown that flowering times for many spring-flowering plants have become earlier as a result of recent climate change, but it is uncertain if flowering times will continue to advance as temperatures rise. Here, we used long-term flowering records initiated by Henry David Thoreau in 1852 and Aldo Leopold in 1935 to investigate this question. Our analyses demonstrate that record-breaking spring temperatures in 2010 and 2012 in Massachusetts, USA, and 2012 in Wisconsin, USA, resulted in the earliest flowering times in recorded history for dozens of spring-flowering plants of the eastern United States. These dramatic advances in spring flowering were successfully predicted by historical relationships between flowering and spring temperature spanning up to 161 years of ecological change. These results demonstrate that numerous temperate plant species have yet to show obvious signs of physiological constraints on phenological advancement in the face of climate change. PMID:23342001

Evaluating Gridded Spring Indices Using the USA National Phenology Network's Observational Phenology Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.

2017-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) produces and freely delivers daily and short-term forecast maps of spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States and Alaska using the Spring Indices. These models, which represent the start of biological activity in the spring season, were developed using a long-term observational record of four species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers. Three of the four species continue to be tracked through the USA-NPN's phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook. The gridded Spring Index maps have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. However, to date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of how well the gridded Spring Index maps accurately reflect phenological activity in lilacs and honeysuckles or other species of plants. In this study, we used observational plant phenology data maintained by the USA-NPN to evaluate how well the gridded Spring Index maps match leaf and flowering onset dates in a) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models and b) in several species of deciduous trees. The Spring Index performed strongly at predicting the timing of leaf-out and flowering in lilacs and honeysuckles. The average error between predicted and observed date of onset ranged from 5.9 to 11.4 days. Flowering models performed slightly better than leaf-out models. The degree to which the Spring Indices predicted native deciduous tree leaf and flower phenology varied by year, species, and region. Generally, the models were better predictors of leaf and flowering onset dates in the Northeastern and Midwestern US. These results reveal when and where the Spring Indices are a meaningful proxy of phenological activity across the United States.

Ground based NO2 and O3 measurements by visible spectrometer at Syowa Base (69 deg S), Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kondo, Y.; Matthews, W. A.; Johnston, Paul V.; Hayashi, M.; Koike, M.; Iwasaka, Y.; Shimizu, A.; Budiyono, A.; Yamanouchi, T.; Aoki, S.

1994-01-01

The column amounts of NO2 and ozone have been measured using visible spectroscopy at Syowa Base (69 deg S) since March 1990. Ozone was also measured at the same location with a Dobson spectrometer as well as ozonesondes being flown regularly. The characteristic features of the seasonal and diurnal variations of NO2 are presented. The column ozone values from the visible spectrometers are compared with the Dobson data. The very low values of NO2 in midwinter and early spring are consistent with the conditions predicted to be needed for heterogeneous ozone destruction in early spring. In late spring and summer of 1991, NO2 amounts were considerably smaller than in 1990, presumably due to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption.

Predicting the Start of the Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Female Adult Biting Season Using the Spring Temperature in Japan

PubMed Central

Higa, Yukiko; Muto, Atsushi; Hirabayashi, Kimio; Yoshida, Masahiro; Sato, Takashi; Nihei, Naoko; Sawabe, Kyoko; Kobayashi, Mutsuo

2017-01-01

Abstract Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is distributed widely and is common in much of Japan. In Japan, female adults begin to bite in between April and June, except in the southern subtropics where the mosquito has no dormant period. It is difficult to estimate the first Ae. albopictus biting day because it varies annually depending on the location. Over several years, we surveyed the mosquitoes at different locations that covered a range of warmer to cooler areas of Japan. We found an association between the timing of first biting day by Ae. albopictus and spring temperature. In spring months, the strongest correlation was found with mean April temperatures, followed by March. Based on these data, it may, therefore, be possible to apply a simple formula to predict the timing of the first biting day at various geographical locations in Japan. Forecasting maps were created using a simple prediction formula. We found that the first biting day for Ae. albopictus changed depending on early spring temperatures for each year. There was an approximate 20-d difference in first biting day between years with warmer and cooler springs. This prediction model will provide useful insight for planning and practice of Ae. albopictus control programs, targeting larvae and adults, in temperate regions globally. PMID:28968909

Fatigue Life Assessment of 65Si7 Leaf Springs: A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Arora, Vinkel Kumar; Bhushan, Gian; Aggarwal, M. L.

2014-01-01

The experimental fatigue life prediction of leaf springs is a time consuming process. The engineers working in the field of leaf springs always face a challenge to formulate alternate methods of fatigue life assessment. The work presented in this paper provides alternate methods for fatigue life assessment of leaf springs. A 65Si7 light commercial vehicle leaf spring is chosen for this study. The experimental fatigue life and load rate are determined on a full scale leaf spring testing machine. Four alternate methods of fatigue life assessment have been depicted. Firstly by SAE spring design manual approach the fatigue test stroke is established and by the intersection of maximum and initial stress the fatigue life is predicted. The second method constitutes a graphical method based on modified Goodman's criteria. In the third method codes are written in FORTRAN for fatigue life assessment based on analytical technique. The fourth method consists of computer aided engineering tools. The CAD model of the leaf spring has been prepared in solid works and analyzed using ANSYS. Using CAE tools, ideal type of contact and meshing elements have been proposed. The method which provides fatigue life closer to experimental value and consumes less time is suggested. PMID:27379327

Daily Variations in Spring Break Alcohol and Sexual Behaviors Based on Intentions, Perceived Norms, and Daily Trip Context

PubMed Central

Patrick, Megan E.; Lee, Christine M.

2012-01-01

Objective: Given the known risks of alcohol use and sexual behavior for college students on Spring Break, this study was designed to document the behaviors and correlates associated with being on a Spring Break trip on a given day (controlling for average time on a trip). Method: Participants were undergraduate students (n = 261; 55% women) who reported that they planned to go on a Spring Break trip. Web-based survey responses before and after Spring Break documented perceived norms, intentions, and actual behavior on each of the 10 days of Spring Break. Results: Students who went on longer trips, who previously engaged in more heavy episodic drinking, or who had greater pre–Spring Break intentions to drink reported greater alcohol use during Spring Break. Similarly, students with greater pre–Spring Break intentions to have sex, greater perceived norms for sex, or more previoussexual partners had greater odds of having sex. On days students were on trips, they had a greater likelihood of having sex, drinking to higher estimated blood alcohol concentrations, consuming more drinks, and reporting perceived drunkenness than on nontrip days, especially if they had intentions to have sex and drink alcohol (and, for models predicting sexual behavior and drunkenness, had greater perceived norms for sex and drinking). Conclusions: Students who went on Spring Break trips engaged in more risk behaviors. In addition, the context of being on a trip on a given day was associated with increased risk, especially if they had stronger intentions and, in some cases, higher perceived norms. Further research is needed to describe the contexts of Spring Break trips and how to intervene effectively. PMID:22630797

Analytical Prediction of Lower Leg Injury in a Vehicular Mine Blast Event

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the spring constant of the tibia is nearly arbitrary; the spring constant of the boot assumes a hard ethylene propylene diene monomer ( EPDM ) rubber ...the sole of the boot. The significantly lower spring constant of the EPDM rubber in the sole compared to the bone structures greatly diminished the

Delineating spring recharge areas in a fractured sandstone aquifer (Luxembourg) based on pesticide mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farlin, J.; Drouet, L.; Gallé, T.; Pittois, D.; Bayerle, M.; Braun, C.; Maloszewski, P.; Vanderborght, J.; Elsner, M.; Kies, A.

2013-06-01

A simple method to delineate the recharge areas of a series of springs draining a fractured aquifer is presented. Instead of solving the flow and transport equations, the delineation is reformulated as a mass balance problem assigning arable land in proportion to the pesticide mass discharged annually in a spring at minimum total transport cost. The approach was applied to the Luxembourg Sandstone, a fractured-rock aquifer supplying half of the drinking water for Luxembourg, using the herbicide atrazine. Predictions of the recharge areas were most robust in situations of strong competition by neighbouring springs while the catchment boundaries for isolated springs were extremely sensitive to the parameter controlling flow direction. Validation using a different pesticide showed the best agreement with the simplest model used, whereas using historical crop-rotation data and spatially distributed soil-leaching data did not improve predictions. The whole approach presents the advantage of integrating objectively information on land use and pesticide concentration in spring water into the delineation of groundwater recharge zones in a fractured-rock aquifer.

Continuum vs. spring network models of airway-parenchymal interdependence

PubMed Central

Ma, Baoshun

2012-01-01

The outward tethering forces exerted by the lung parenchyma on the airways embedded within it are potent modulators of the ability of the airway smooth muscle to shorten. Much of our understanding of these tethering forces is based on treating the parenchyma as an elastic continuum; yet, on a small enough scale, the lung parenchyma in two dimensions would seem to be more appropriately described as a discrete spring network. We therefore compared how the forces and displacements in the parenchyma surrounding a contracting airway are predicted to differ depending on whether the parenchyma is modeled as an elastic continuum or as a spring network. When the springs were arranged hexagonally to represent alveolar walls, the predicted parenchymal stresses and displacements propagated substantially farther away from the airway than when the springs were arranged in a triangular pattern or when the parenchyma was modeled as a continuum. Thus, to the extent that the parenchyma in vivo behaves as a hexagonal spring network, our results suggest that the range of interdependence forces due to airway contraction may have a greater influence than was previously thought. PMID:22500006

Climate Change Simulations Predict Altered Biotic Response in a Thermally Heterogeneous Stream System

PubMed Central

Westhoff, Jacob T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2014-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase water temperatures in many lotic systems, but little is known about how changes in air temperature affect lotic systems heavily influenced by groundwater. Our objectives were to document spatial variation in temperature for spring-fed Ozark streams in Southern Missouri USA, create a spatially explicit model of mean daily water temperature, and use downscaled climate models to predict the number of days meeting suitable stream temperature for three aquatic species of concern to conservation and management. Longitudinal temperature transects and stationary temperature loggers were used in the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers during 2012 to determine spatial and temporal variability of water temperature. Groundwater spring influence affected river water temperatures in both winter and summer, but springs that contributed less than 5% of the main stem discharge did not affect river temperatures beyond a few hundred meters downstream. A multiple regression model using variables related to season, mean daily air temperature, and a spatial influence factor (metric to account for groundwater influence) was a strong predictor of mean daily water temperature (r2 = 0.98; RMSE = 0.82). Data from two downscaled climate simulations under the A2 emissions scenario were used to predict daily water temperatures for time steps of 1995, 2040, 2060, and 2080. By 2080, peak numbers of optimal growth temperature days for smallmouth bass are expected to shift to areas with more spring influence, largemouth bass are expected to experience more optimal growth days (21 – 317% increase) regardless of spring influence, and Ozark hellbenders may experience a reduction in the number of optimal growth days in areas with the highest spring influence. Our results provide a framework for assessing fine-scale (10 s m) thermal heterogeneity and predict shifts in thermal conditions at the watershed and reach scale. PMID:25356982

Heterotic patterns in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.): I. Crosses between spring and Chinese semi-winter lines.

PubMed

Qian, W; Sass, O; Meng, J; Li, M; Frauen, M; Jung, C

2007-06-01

Chinese semi-winter rapeseed is genetically diverse from Canadian and European spring rapeseed. This study was conducted to evaluate the potential of semi-winter rapeseed for spring rapeseed hybrid breeding, to assess the genetic effects involved, and to estimate the correlation of parental genetic distance (GD) with hybrid performance, heterosis, general combining ability (GCA) and specific combining ability (SCA) in crosses between spring and semi-winter rapeseed lines. Four spring male sterile lines from Germany and Canada as testers were crossed with 13 Chinese semi-winter rapeseed lines to develop 52 hybrids, which were evaluated together with their parents and commercial hybrids for seed yield and oil content in three sets of field trials with 8 environments in Canada and Europe. The Chinese parental lines were not adapted to local environmental conditions as demonstrated by poor seed yields per se. However, the hybrids between the Chinese parents and the adapted spring rapeseed lines exhibited high heterosis for seed yield. The average mid-parent heterosis was 15% and ca. 50% of the hybrids were superior to the respective hybrid control across three sets of field trials. Additive gene effects mainly contributed to hybrid performance since the mean squares of GCA were higher as compared to SCA. The correlation between parental GD and hybrid performance and heterosis was found to be low whereas the correlation between GCA((f + m)) and hybrid performance was high and significant in each set of field trials, with an average of r = 0.87 for seed yield and r = 0.89 for oil content, indicating that hybrid performance can be predicted by GCA((f + m)). These results demonstrate that Chinese semi-winter rapeseed germplasm has a great potential to increase seed yield in spring rapeseed hybrid breeding programs in Canada and Europe.

Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir

Treesearch

Connie Harrington; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

2010-01-01

Most temperate woody plants have a winter chilling requirement to prevent budburst during midwinter periods of warm weather. The date of spring budburst is dependent on both chilling and forcing; modeling this date is an important part of predicting potential effects of global warming on trees. There is no clear evidence from the literature that the curves of chilling...

Testing the metabolic theory of ecology with marine bacteria: different temperature sensitivity of major phylogenetic groups during the spring phytoplankton bloom.

PubMed

Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; G Morán, Xosé Anxelu

2017-11-01

Although temperature is a key driver of bacterioplankton metabolism, the effect of ocean warming on different bacterial phylogenetic groups remains unclear. Here, we conducted monthly short-term incubations with natural coastal bacterial communities over an annual cycle to test the effect of experimental temperature on the growth rates and carrying capacities of four phylogenetic groups: SAR11, Rhodobacteraceae, Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. SAR11 was the most abundant group year-round as analysed by CARD-FISH, with maximum abundances in summer, while the other taxa peaked in spring. All groups, including SAR11, showed high temperature-sensitivity of growth rates and/or carrying capacities in spring, under phytoplankton bloom or post-bloom conditions. In that season, Rhodobacteraceae showed the strongest temperature response in growth rates, estimated here as activation energy (E, 1.43 eV), suggesting an advantage to outcompete other groups under warmer conditions. In summer E values were in general lower than 0.65 eV, the value predicted by the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE). Contrary to MTE predictions, carrying capacity tended to increase with warming for all bacterial groups. Our analysis confirms that resource availability is key when addressing the temperature response of heterotrophic bacterioplankton. We further show that even under nutrient-sufficient conditions, warming differentially affected distinct bacterioplankton taxa. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Preliminary Investigation of Caffeinated Alcohol Use During Spring Break.

PubMed

Linden-Carmichael, Ashley N; Lau-Barraco, Cathy

2016-06-06

Caffeinated alcoholic beverages (e.g., Red Bull and vodka) are popular but associated with negative consequences. CABs may be particularly popular during Spring Break, a potentially risky social event. We aimed to identify the prevalence of Spring Break caffeinated alcohol use, determine how caffeinated alcohol use Spring Break drinking habits differ from usual, and examine the association between Spring Break caffeinated alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. Data were collected from 95 college students during March of 2013 and 2014. Students completed questionnaires of their alcohol and caffeinated alcohol use before and during Spring Break and Spring Break alcohol-related problems. Approximately 54% of students used caffeinated alcohol during Spring Break. Spring Break caffeinated alcohol use was associated with more alcohol-related problems, even after controlling for other alcohol consumed and Spring Break vacation status. Caffeinated alcoholic beverages are commonly consumed during Spring Break and their use uniquely predicted harms. Prevention efforts placed on caffeinated alcoholic beverage users may be helpful in reducing Spring Break-related harms.

Assessment Testing: Analysis and Predictions, Spring-Fall 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Howard L.; Hansson, Claudia J.

During spring and fall 1985, a study was conducted at Cosumnes River College (CRC) to determine how assessment testing scores related to student persistence and performance. The student history files of a random sample of 498 students who had been tested by the CRC Assessment Center during spring and fall 1985 were examined, yielding the following…

Potential for travertine formation: Fossil Creek, Arizona

Treesearch

John Malusa; Steven T. Overby; Roderic A. Parnell

2003-01-01

Chemical analyses of water emanating from Fossil Springs in Central Arizona were conducted to predict changes in travertine deposition related to changes in stream discharge caused by diversion for hydroelectric power generation. During spring of 1996, water was sampled at 15 locations during normal seepage flow in a 6.7 km reach below Fossil Springs and at full...

Spatial distribution and risk assessment of Johnsongrass (sorghum halepense) in Big Bend National Park, Texas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We used Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery to illustrate how remotely sensed data can model predicted Johnsongrass habitat. We used spectral reflectance values for three seasons of data across 5 years (fall 1999, summer and fall 2000, spring and fall 2001, spring 2002, and spring 2003) to capture Johnsongrass v...

Using daily temperature to predict phenology trends in spring flowers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin-Hee; Kim, Soo-Ock; Kim, Dae-Jun; Moon, Kyung Hwan; Yun, Jin I.

2015-05-01

The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers blooming sequentially one after another. This enables local governments to earn substantial sightseeing revenues by hosting festivals featuring spring flowers. Furthermore, beekeepers move from the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula all the way northward in a quest to secure spring flowers as nectar sources for a sustained period of time. However, areal differences in flowering dates of flower species are narrowing, which has economic consequences. Analysis of data on flowering dates of forsythia ( Forsythia koreana) and cherry blossom ( Prunus serrulata), two typical spring flower species, as observed for the past 60 years at six weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicated that the difference between the flowering date of forsythia, the earliest blooming flower in spring, and cherry blossom, which flowers later than forsythia, was 14 days on average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, compared with 11 days for the period 1981-2010. In 2014, the gap narrowed further to 7 days, making it possible in some locations to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time. Synchronized flowering of these two flower species is due to acceleration of flowering due to an abnormally high spring temperature, and this was more pronounced in the later-blooming cherry blossom than forsythia. While cherry blossom flowering dates across the nation ranged from March 31 to April 19 (an areal difference of 20 days) for the 1951-1980 normal year, the difference ranged from March 29 to April 12 (an areal difference of 16 days) for the 1981-2010 normal year, and in 2014, the flowering dates spanned March 25 and March 30 (an areal difference of 6 days). In the case of forsythia, the gap was narrower than in cherry blossoms. Climate change in the Korean Peninsula, reflected by rapid temperature hikes in late spring in contrast to a slow temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release, likely brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossom. We derived a thermal time-based flowering model from this analysis and used it to predict the flowering dates of forsythia and cherry blossom in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species, showing a feasibility of prediction under the changing climate.

Scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

PubMed

Ross, Callum F; Reed, David A; Washington, Rhyan L; Eckhardt, Alison; Anapol, Fred; Shahnoor, Nazima

2009-01-01

The biomechanical determinants of the scaling of chew cycle duration are important components of models of primate feeding systems at all levels, from the neuromechanical to the ecological. Chew cycle durations were estimated in 35 species of primates and analyzed in conjunction with data on morphological variables of the feeding system estimating moment of inertia of the mandible and force production capacity of the chewing muscles. Data on scaling of primate chew cycle duration were compared with the predictions of simple pendulum and forced mass-spring system models of the feeding system. The gravity-driven pendulum model best predicts the observed cycle duration scaling but is rejected as biomechanically unrealistic. The forced mass-spring model predicts larger increases in chew cycle duration with size than observed, but provides reasonable predictions of cycle duration scaling. We hypothesize that intrinsic properties of the muscles predict spring-like behavior of the jaw elevator muscles during opening and fast close phases of the jaw cycle and that modulation of stiffness by the central nervous system leads to spring-like properties during the slow close/power stroke phase. Strepsirrhines show no predictable relationship between chew cycle duration and jaw length. Anthropoids have longer chew cycle durations than nonprimate mammals with similar mandible lengths, possibly due to their enlarged symphyses, which increase the moment of inertia of the mandible. Deviations from general scaling trends suggest that both scaling of the jaw muscles and the inertial properties of the mandible are important in determining the scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

Informing geobiology through GIS site suitability analysis: locating springs in mantle units of ophiolites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, A.; Cardace, D.; August, P.

2012-12-01

Springs sourced in the mantle units of ophiolites serve as windows to the deep biosphere, and thus hold promise in elucidating survival strategies of extremophiles, and may also inform discourse on the origin of life on Earth. Understanding how organisms can survive in extreme environments provides clues to how microbial life responds to gradients in pH, temperature, and oxidation-reduction potential. Spring locations associated with serpentinites have traditionally been located using a variety of field techniques. The aqueous alteration of ultramafic rocks to serpentinites is accompanied by the production of very unusual formation fluids, accessed by drilling into subsurface flow regimes or by sampling at related surface springs. The chemical properties of these springs are unique to water associated with actively serpentinizing rocks; they reflect a reducing subsurface environment reacting at low temperatures producing high pH, Ca-rich formation fluids with high dissolved hydrogen and methane. This study applies GIS site suitability analysis to locate high pH springs upwelling from Coast Range Ophiolite serpentinites in Northern California. We used available geospatial data (e.g., geologic maps, topography, fault locations, known spring locations, etc.) and ArcGIS software to predict new spring localities. Important variables in the suitability model were: (a) bedrock geology (i.e., unit boundaries and contacts for peridotite, serpentinite, possibly pyroxenite, or chromite), (b) fault locations, (c) regional data for groundwater characteristics such as pH, Ca2+, and Mg2+, and (d) slope-aspect ratio. The GIS model derived from these geological and environmental data sets predicts the latitude/longitude points for novel and known high pH springs sourced in serpentinite outcrops in California. Field work confirms the success of the model, and map output can be merged with published environmental microbiology data (e.g., occurrence of hydrogen-oxidizers) to showcase patterns in microbial community structure. Discrepancies between predicted and actual spring locations are then used to tune GIS suitability analysis, re-running the model with corrected geo-referenced data. This presentation highlights a powerful GIS-based technique for accelerating field exploration in this area of ongoing research.

Observation of an optical spring with a beam splitter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cripe, Jonathan; Danz, Baylee; Lane, Benjamin; Lorio, Mary Catherine; Falcone, Julia; Cole, Garrett D.; Corbitt, Thomas

2018-05-01

We present the experimental observation of an optical spring without the use of an optical cavity. The optical spring is produced by interference at a beamsplitter and, in principle, does not have the damping force associated with optical springs created in detuned cavities. The experiment consists of a Michelson-Sagnac interferometer (with no recycling cavities) with a partially reflective GaAs microresonator as the beamsplitter that produces the optical spring. Our experimental measurements at input powers of up to 360 mW show the shift of the optical spring frequency as a function of power and are in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. In addition, we show that the optical spring is able to keep the interferometer stable and locked without the use of external feedback.

Day length unlikely to constrain climate-driven shifts in leaf-out times of northern woody plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohner, Constantin M.; Benito, Blas M.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S.

2016-12-01

The relative roles of temperature and day length in driving spring leaf unfolding are known for few species, limiting our ability to predict phenology under climate warming. Using experimental data, we assess the importance of photoperiod as a leaf-out regulator in 173 woody species from throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and we also infer the influence of winter duration, temperature seasonality, and inter-annual temperature variability. We combine results from climate- and light-controlled chambers with species’ native climate niches inferred from georeferenced occurrences and range maps. Of the 173 species, only 35% relied on spring photoperiod as a leaf-out signal. Contrary to previous suggestions, these species come from lower latitudes, whereas species from high latitudes with long winters leafed out independent of photoperiod. The strong effect of species’ geographic-climatic history on phenological strategies complicates the prediction of community-wide phenological change.

Soft tissue modelling with conical springs.

PubMed

Omar, Nadzeri; Zhong, Yongmin; Jazar, Reza N; Subic, Aleksandar; Smith, Julian; Shirinzadeh, Bijan

2015-01-01

This paper presents a new method for real-time modelling soft tissue deformation. It improves the traditional mass-spring model with conical springs to deal with nonlinear mechanical behaviours of soft tissues. A conical spring model is developed to predict soft tissue deformation with reference to deformation patterns. The model parameters are formulated according to tissue deformation patterns and the nonlinear behaviours of soft tissues are modelled with the stiffness variation of conical spring. Experimental results show that the proposed method can describe different tissue deformation patterns using one single equation and also exhibit the typical mechanical behaviours of soft tissues.

Model-data assimilation of multiple phenological observations to constrain and predict leaf area index.

PubMed

Viskari, Toni; Hardiman, Brady; Desai, Ankur R; Dietze, Michael C

2015-03-01

Our limited ability to accurately simulate leaf phenology is a leading source of uncertainty in models of ecosystem carbon cycling. We evaluate if continuously updating canopy state variables with observations is beneficial for predicting phenological events. We employed ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) to update predictions of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf extension using tower-based photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) data for 2002-2005 at Willow Creek, Wisconsin, USA, a mature, even-aged, northern hardwood, deciduous forest. The ecosystem demography model version 2 (ED2) was used as the prediction model, forced by offline climate data. EAKF successfully incorporated information from both the observations and model predictions weighted by their respective uncertainties. The resulting. estimate reproduced the observed leaf phenological cycle in the spring and the fall better than a parametric model prediction. These results indicate that during spring the observations contribute most in determining the correct bud-burst date, after which the model performs well, but accurately modeling fall leaf senesce requires continuous model updating from observations. While the predicted net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 precedes tower observations and unassimilated model predictions in the spring, overall the prediction follows observed NEE better than the model alone. Our results show state data assimilation successfully simulates the evolution of plant leaf phenology and improves model predictions of forest NEE.

Examining the effects of testwiseness in conceptual physics evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVore, Seth; Stewart, John; Stewart, Gay

2016-12-01

Testwiseness is defined as the set of cognitive strategies used by a student that is intended to improve his or her score on a test regardless of the test's subject matter. Questions with elements that may be affected by testwiseness are common in physics assessments, even in those which have been extensively validated and widely used as evaluation tools in physics education research. The potential effect of several elements of testwiseness were analyzed for questions in the Force Concept Inventory (FCI) and Conceptual Survey on Electricity and Magnetism that contain distractors that are predicted to be influenced by testwiseness. This analysis was performed using data sets collected between fall 2001 and spring 2014 at one midwestern U.S. university (including over 9500 students) and between Spring 2011 and Spring 2015 at a second eastern U.S. university (including over 2500 students). Student avoidance of "none of the above" or "zero" distractors was statistically significant. The effect of the position of a distractor on its likelihood to be selected was also significant. The effects of several potential positive and negative testwiseness effects on student scores were also examined by developing two modified versions of the FCI designed to include additional elements related to testwiseness; testwiseness produced little effect post-instruction in student performance on the modified instruments.

Candidate genes have sex-specific effects on timing of spring migration and moult speed in a long-distance migratory bird.

PubMed

Bazzi, Gaia; Podofillini, Stefano; Gatti, Emanuele; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Cecere, Jacopo G; Spina, Fernando; Saino, Nicola; Rubolini, Diego

2017-10-01

The timing of major life-history events, such as migration and moult, is set by endogenous circadian and circannual clocks, that have been well characterized at the molecular level. Conversely, the genetic sources of variation in phenology and in other behavioral traits have been sparsely addressed. It has been proposed that inter-individual variability in the timing of seasonal events may arise from allelic polymorphism at phenological candidate genes involved in the signaling cascade of the endogenous clocks. In this study of a long-distance migratory passerine bird, the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus , we investigated whether allelic variation at 5 polymorphic loci of 4 candidate genes ( Adcyap1 , Clock , Creb1 , and Npas2 ), predicted 2 major components of the annual schedule, namely timing of spring migration across the central Mediterranean sea and moult speed, the latter gauged from ptilochronological analyses of tail feathers moulted in the African winter quarters. We identified a novel Clock gene locus ( Clock region 3) showing polyQ polymorphism, which was however not significantly associated with any phenotypic trait. Npas2 allele size predicted male (but not female) spring migration date, with males bearing longer alleles migrating significantly earlier than those bearing shorter alleles. Creb1 allele size significantly predicted male (but not female) moult speed, longer alleles being associated with faster moult. All other genotype-phenotype associations were statistically non-significant. These findings provide new evidence for a role of candidate genes in modulating the phenology of different circannual activities in long-distance migratory birds, and for the occurrence of sex-specific candidate gene effects.

Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding

PubMed Central

Bellamy, Paul E.; Hill, Ross A.; Ferns, Peter N.

2016-01-01

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships. PMID:27182711

Terrestrial–aquatic linkages in spring-fed and snowmelt-dominated streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, Adam

2017-01-01

The importance of trophic linkages between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems is predicted to vary as a function of subsidy quantity and quality relative to in situ resources. To test this prediction, I used multi-year diet data from Bonneville cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki Utah in spring-fed and snowmelt-driven streams in the high desert of western North America. I documented that trout in spring-fed streams consumed more (number and weight) aquatic than terrestrial invertebrates, while trout in snowmelt-driven streams consumed a similar number of both prey types but consumed more terrestrial than aquatic invertebrates by weight. Trout in spring-fed streams consumed more aquatic invertebrates than trout in snowmelt streams and trout consumed more terrestrial invertebrates in snowmelt than in spring-fed streams. Up to 93% of trout production in spring-fed streams and 60% in snowmelt streams was fueled by aquatic invertebrates, while the remainder of trout production in each stream type was from terrestrial production. I found that the biomass and occurrence of consumed terrestrial invertebrates were not related to our measures of in situ resource quality or quantity in either stream type. These empirical data highlight the importance of autotrophic-derived production to trout in xeric regions.

A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone.

PubMed

Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.

Observation of an optical spring with a beam splitter.

PubMed

Cripe, Jonathan; Danz, Baylee; Lane, Benjamin; Lorio, Mary Catherine; Falcone, Julia; Cole, Garrett D; Corbitt, Thomas

2018-05-01

We present the experimental observation of an optical spring without the use of an optical cavity. The optical spring is produced by interference at a beam splitter and, in principle, does not have the damping force associated with optical springs created in detuned cavities. The experiment consists of a Michelson-Sagnac interferometer (with no recycling cavities) with a partially reflective GaAs microresonator as the beam splitter that produces the optical spring. Our experimental measurements at input powers of up to 360 mW show the shift of the optical spring frequency as a function of power and are in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. In addition, we show that the optical spring is able to keep the interferometer stable and locked without the use of external feedback.

Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2015-01-01

In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.

Relating large-scale climate variability to local species abundance: ENSO forcing and shrimp in Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piazza, Bryan P.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Keim, B.D.

2010-01-01

Climate creates environmental constraints (filters) that affect the abundance and distribution of species. In estuaries, these constraints often result from variability in water flow properties and environmental conditions (i.e. water flow, salinity, water temperature) and can have significant effects on the abundance and distribution of commercially important nekton species. We investigated links between large-scale climate variability and juvenile brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus abundance in Breton Sound estuary, Louisiana (USA). Our goals were to (1) determine if a teleconnection exists between local juvenile brown shrimp abundance and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and (2) relate that linkage to environmental constraints that may affect juvenile brown shrimp recruitment to, and survival in, the estuary. Our results identified a teleconnection between winter ENSO conditions and juvenile brown shrimp abundance in Breton Sound estuary the following spring. The physical connection results from the impact of ENSO on winter weather conditions in Breton Sound (air pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Juvenile brown shrimp abundance effects lagged ENSO by 3 mo: lower than average abundances of juvenile brown shrimp were caught in springs following winter El Niño events, and higher than average abundances of brown shrimp were caught in springs following La Niña winters. Salinity was the dominant ENSO-forced environmental filter for juvenile brown shrimp. Spring salinity was cumulatively forced by winter river discharge, winter wind forcing, and spring precipitation. Thus, predicting brown shrimp abundance requires incorporating climate variability into models.

A two-way architectural actuator using NiTi SE wire and SME spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nematollahi, Mohammadreza; Mehrabi, Reza; Callejas, Miguel A.; Elahinia, Hedyeh; Elahinia, Mohammad

2018-03-01

This paper presents a bio-inspired continuously adapting architectural element, to enable a smart canopy that provides shade to buildings that need protection from sunlight. The smart actuator consists of two elements: one NiTi shape memory (SME) spring and one NiTi superelastic (SE) wire. The SE wire is deformed to a `U' shape and then the SME spring is attached to it. Due to the force of SE wire exerted on SME spring, the smart canopy is in its open position. When the environment's temperature increases, the actuator activates and shrinks the SME spring and hence it closes the canopy. In continues, when the temperature decreases at evening, the actuator inactive and SE wire will open the smart fabric. This unique activation provides different advantages like silent actuation, maintenance free, eco-friendly, and no or low energy consumption. Here, the conceptual design of the smart canopy actuator will be discussed. Then, a simulation study, using finite element method, is used to investigate components' behavior. The extracted material parameters are implemented in the subroutine, to simulate the behavior of the shape memory alloy elements. Simulation's results predict superelastic behavior for the SE wire and shape memory effect for the NiTi spring. For further studies, a prototype will be fabricated to confirm simulation's results, as well as performing some experimental tests.

Using noble gases measured in spring discharge to trace hydrothermal processes in the Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, W.P.; Susong, D.D.; Solomon, D.K.; Heasler, H.P.

2010-01-01

Dissolved noble gas concentrations in springs are used to investigate boiling of hydrothermal water and mixing of hydrothermal and shallow cool water in the Norris Geyser Basin area. Noble gas concentrations in water are modeled for single stage and continuous steam removal. Limitations on boiling using noble gas concentrations are then used to estimate the isotopic effect of boiling on hydrothermal water, allowing the isotopic composition of the parent hydrothermal water to be determined from that measured in spring. In neutral chloride springs of the Norris Geyser Basin, steam loss since the last addition of noble gas charged water is less than 30% of the total hydrothermal discharge, which results in an isotopic shift due to boiling of ?? 2.5% ??D. Noble gas concentrations in water rapidly and predictably change in dual phase systems, making them invaluable tracers of gas-liquid interaction in hydrothermal systems. By combining traditional tracers of hydrothermal flow such as deuterium with dissolved noble gas measurements, more complex hydrothermal processes can be interpreted. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of wildlife-habitat relationships data base for predicting bird community composition in central California chaparral and blue oak woodlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Avery, M.L.; van Riper, Charles

1990-01-01

The California Wildlife-Habitat Relationships (WHR) database can be used to assist resource managers to evaluate effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife. The accuracy of predictions from WHR was evaluated using data from bird surveys conducted during winter and spring 1984 and 1985 in chamise (Adenostema fasciculata) chaparral, mixed chaparral and blue oak (Quercus douglasii) woodland. Considerable variability between habitat types was found for errors both of commission and of omission.

Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change.

PubMed

Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

2006-12-22

Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these.

What to do on spring break? The role of predicted, on-line, and remembered experience in future choice.

PubMed

Wirtz, Derrick; Kruger, Justin; Napa Scollon, Christie; Diener, Ed

2003-09-01

When individuals choose future activities on the basis of their past experiences, what guides those choices? The present study compared students' predicted, on-line, and remembered spring-break experiences, as well as the influence of these factors on students' desire to take a similar vacation in the future. Predicted and remembered experiences were both more positive-and, paradoxically, more negative-than on-line experiences. Of key importance, path analyses revealed that remembered experience, but neither on-line nor anticipated experience, directly predicted the desire to repeat the experience. These results suggest that although on-line measures may be superior to retrospective measures for approximating objective experience, retrospective measures may be superior for predicting choice.

Effects of Weather Conditions on Oxidative Stress, Oxidative Damage, and Antioxidant Capacity in a Wild-Living Mammal, the European Badger (Meles meles).

PubMed

Bilham, Kirstin; Newman, Chris; Buesching, Christina D; Noonan, Michael J; Boyd, Amy; Smith, Adrian L; Macdonald, David W

Wild-living animals are subject to weather variability that may cause the generation of reactive oxygen species, resulting in oxidative stress and tissue damage, potentially driving demographic responses. Our 3-yr field study investigated the effects of seasonal weather conditions on biomarkers for oxidative stress, oxidative damage, and antioxidant defense in the European badger (Meles meles). We found age class effects: cubs were more susceptible to oxidative stress and oxidative damage than adults, especially very young cubs in the spring, when they also exhibited lower antioxidant biomarkers than adults. Although previous studies have found that intermediate spring and summer rainfall and warmer temperatures favor cub survival, counterintuitively these conditions were associated with more severe oxidative damage. Oxidative damage was high in cubs even when antioxidant biomarkers were high. In contrast, adult responses accorded with previous survival analyses. Wetter spring and summer conditions were associated with higher oxidative damage, but they were also associated with higher antioxidant biomarkers. Autumnal weather did not vary substantially from normative values, and thus effects were muted. Winter carryover effects were partially evident, with drier and milder conditions associated with greater oxidative damage in the following spring but also with higher antioxidant capacity. Plausibly, warmer conditions promoted more badger activity, with associated metabolic costs at a time of year when food supply is limited. Modeling biomarkers against projected climate change scenarios predicted greater future risks of oxidative damage, although not necessarily exceeding antioxidant capacity. This interdisciplinary approach demonstrates that individual adaptive physiological responses are associated with variation in natural environmental conditions.

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

Comparison of Estimated Areas Contributing Recharge to Selected Springs in North-Central Florida by Using Multiple Ground-Water Flow Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W. Barclay; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Williams, Stanley A.; Motz, Louis H.; Sun, Qing

2004-01-01

Areas contributing recharge to springs are defined in this report as the land-surface area wherein water entering the ground-water system at the water table eventually discharges to a spring. These areas were delineated for Blue Spring, Silver Springs, Alexander Springs, and Silver Glen Springs in north-central Florida using four regional ground-water flow models and particle tracking. As expected, different models predicted different areas contributing recharge. In general, the differences were due to different hydrologic stresses, subsurface permeability properties, and boundary conditions that were used to calibrate each model, all of which are considered to be equally feasible because each model matched its respective calibration data reasonably well. To evaluate the agreement of the models and to summarize results, areas contributing recharge to springs from each model were combined into composite areas. During 1993-98, the composite areas contributing recharge to Blue Spring, Silver Springs, Alexander Springs, and Silver Glen Springs were about 130, 730, 110, and 120 square miles, respectively. The composite areas for all springs remained about the same when using projected 2020 ground-water withdrawals.

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Dubovsky, James A.; Drewien, Roderick C.

2015-01-01

Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment.Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression.Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect.Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond.Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions.

Simulating the onset of spring vegetation growth across the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Liu, Yongwen; Janssens, Ivan A; Piao, Shilong

2018-03-01

Changes in the spring onset of vegetation growth in response to climate change can profoundly impact climate-biosphere interactions. Thus, robust simulation of spring onset is essential to accurately predict ecosystem responses and feedback to ongoing climate change. To date, the ability of vegetation phenology models to reproduce spatiotemporal patterns of spring onset at larger scales has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we took advantage of phenology observations via remote sensing to calibrate and evaluated six models, including both one-phase (considering only forcing temperatures) and two-phase (involving forcing, chilling, and photoperiod) models across the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2012. Overall, we found that the model that integrated the photoperiod effect performed best at capturing spatiotemporal patterns of spring phenology in boreal and temperate forests. By contrast, all of the models performed poorly in simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. These results suggest that the photoperiod plays a role in controlling the onset of growth in most Northern Hemisphere forests, whereas other environmental factors (e.g., precipitation) should be considered when simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. We also found that the one-phase model performed as well as the two-phase models in boreal forests, which implies that the chilling requirement is probably fulfilled across most of the boreal zone. Conversely, two-phase models performed better in temperate forests than the one-phase model, suggesting that photoperiod and chilling play important roles in these temperate forests. Our results highlight the significance of including chilling and photoperiod effects in models of the spring onset of forest growth at large scales, and indicate that the consideration of additional drivers may be required for grasslands. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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A new bead-spring model for simulation of semi-flexible macromolecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saadat, Amir; Khomami, Bamin

2016-11-01

A bead-spring model for semi-flexible macromolecules is developed to overcome the deficiencies of the current coarse-grained bead-spring models. Specifically, model improvements are achieved through incorporation of a bending potential. The new model is designed to accurately describe the correlation along the backbone of the chain, segmental length, and force-extension behavior of the macromolecule even at the limit of 1 Kuhn step per spring. The relaxation time of different Rouse modes is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the new model in predicting chain dynamics.

Potential effects of groundwater pumping on water levels, phreatophytes, and spring discharges in Spring and Snake Valleys, White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith J.; Plume, Russell W.

2011-01-01

Assessing hydrologic effects of developing groundwater supplies in Snake Valley required numerical, groundwater-flow models to estimate the timing and magnitude of capture from streams, springs, wetlands, and phreatophytes. Estimating general water-table decline also required groundwater simulation. The hydraulic conductivity of basin fill and transmissivity of basement-rock distributions in Spring and Snake Valleys were refined by calibrating a steady state, three-dimensional, MODFLOW model of the carbonate-rock province to predevelopment conditions. Hydraulic properties and boundary conditions were defined primarily from the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model except in Spring and Snake Valleys. This locally refined model was referred to as the Great Basin National Park calibration (GBNP-C) model. Groundwater discharges from phreatophyte areas and springs in Spring and Snake Valleys were simulated as specified discharges in the GBNP-C model. These discharges equaled mapped rates and measured discharges, respectively. Recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and transmissivity were distributed throughout Spring and Snake Valleys with pilot points and interpolated to model cells with kriging in geologically similar areas. Transmissivity of the basement rocks was estimated because thickness is correlated poorly with transmissivity. Transmissivity estimates were constrained by aquifer-test results in basin-fill and carbonate-rock aquifers. Recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and transmissivity distributions of the GBNP-C model were estimated by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function that included measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Tikhonov regularization observations were equations that defined preferred relations between the pilot points. Measured water levels, water levels that were simulated with RASA, depth-to-water beneath distributed groundwater and spring discharges, land-surface altitudes, spring discharge at Fish Springs, and changes in discharge on selected creek reaches were measurement observations. The effects of uncertain distributed groundwater-discharge estimates in Spring and Snake Valleys on transmissivity estimates were bounded with alternative models. Annual distributed groundwater discharges from Spring and Snake Valleys in the alternative models totaled 151,000 and 227,000 acre-feet, respectively and represented 20 percent differences from the 187,000 acre-feet per year that discharges from the GBNP-C model. Transmissivity estimates in the basin fill between Baker and Big Springs changed less than 50 percent between the two alternative models. Potential effects of pumping from Snake Valley were estimated with the Great Basin National Park predictive (GBNP-P) model, which is a transient groundwater-flow model. The hydraulic conductivity of basin fill and transmissivity of basement rock were the GBNP-C model distributions. Specific yields were defined from aquifer tests. Captures of distributed groundwater and spring discharges were simulated in the GBNP-P model using a combination of well and drain packages in MODFLOW. Simulated groundwater captures could not exceed measured groundwater-discharge rates. Four groundwater-development scenarios were investigated where total annual withdrawals ranged from 10,000 to 50,000 acre-feet during a 200-year pumping period. Four additional scenarios also were simulated that added the effects of existing pumping in Snake Valley. Potential groundwater pumping locations were limited to nine proposed points of diversion. Results are presented as maps of groundwater capture and drawdown, time series of drawdowns and discharges from selected wells, and time series of discharge reductions from selected springs and control volumes. Simulated drawdown propagation was attenuated where groundwater discharge could be captured. General patterns of groundwater capture and water-table declines were similar for all scenarios. Simulated drawdowns greater than 1 ft propagated outside of Spring and Snake Valleys after 200 years of pumping in all scenarios.

Designing pinhole vacancies in graphene towards functionalization: Effects on critical buckling load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgantzinos, S. K.; Markolefas, S.; Giannopoulos, G. I.; Katsareas, D. E.; Anifantis, N. K.

2017-03-01

The effect of size and placement of pinhole-type atom vacancies on Euler's critical load on free-standing, monolayer graphene, is investigated. The graphene is modeled by a structural spring-based finite element approach, in which every interatomic interaction is approached as a linear spring. The geometry of graphene and the pinhole size lead to the assembly of the stiffness matrix of the nanostructure. Definition of the boundary conditions of the problem leads to the solution of the eigenvalue problem and consequently to the critical buckling load. Comparison to results found in the literature illustrates the validity and accuracy of the proposed method. Parametric analysis regarding the placement and size of the pinhole-type vacancy, as well as the graphene geometry, depicts the effects on critical buckling load. Non-linear regression analysis leads to empirical-analytical equations for predicting the buckling behavior of graphene, with engineered pinhole-type atom vacancies.

On swinging spring chaotic oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldoshin, Gennady T.; Yakovlev, Sergey P.

2018-05-01

In this work, chaotic modes of Swinging spring oscillations, their appearing conditions and probable scenario of evolution are studied. Swinging spring two-dimensional potential has (under certain conditions) local maximum. It can lead to stochastic attractor appearing. The system instability reason is inner (auto-parametric) resonance with frequencies ratio 2:1, which allows us to conclude that attractor could evolve according to the period doubling scenario, which was predicted by Feigenbaum in 1978.

Lipid reserves of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) migrating across a large landscape are consistent with the "Spring Condition" hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, M.J.; Afton, A.D.

2009-01-01

The “spring condition” hypothesis (SCH) states that nutrition during spring migration affects survival, reproductive success, and, ultimately, population size of migratory birds. The North American population of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) has experienced a marked decline, apparently because of poor recruitment. An important prediction of the SCH is that female Lesser Scaup have low lipid reserves during spring migration. We previously reported that lipid reserves and body mass of females collected on migratory stopover areas in northwestern Minnesota in springs 2000–2001 were lower than those on the same areas in the 1980s and markedly lower than those collected at Pool 19 of the Mississippi River in 2000–2001, an important preceding stopover area. However, it was unclear whether these findings represented a site-specific result or a landscape-scale phenomenon. Accordingly, we examined lipid and body mass of 641 female Lesser Scaup migrating across seven eco-physiographic regions of Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota during springs 2003–2005. We found that lipids and body mass of females throughout the Upper Midwest were similar to or less than the low values documented in northwestern Minnesota in springs 2000–2001 and markedly lower than those of females at Pool 19 in springs 2000–2001. Accordingly, our results are consistent with a prediction of the SCH, because lipid and body mass of females are low throughout this large landscape, lower than at an important preceding stopover area, and lower than all historical values. Finally, our results suggest the potential for cross-seasonal influences of nutrition on recruitment and that a stronger management focus on spring migration habitats may be necessary for conservation and recovery of declining migratory birds, especially Lesser Scaup.

Numerical Study of Groundwater Flow and Salinity Distribution Cycling Controlled by Seawater/Freshwater Interaction in Karst Aquifer Using SEAWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Hu, B.

2017-12-01

The interest to predict seawater intrusion and salinity distribution in Woodville Karst Plain (WKP) has increased due to the huge challenge on quality of drinkable water and serious environmental problems. Seawater intrudes into the conduit system from submarine karst caves at Spring Creek Spring due to density difference and sea level rising, nowadays the low salinity has been detected at Wakulla Spring which is 18 km from coastal line. The groundwater discharge at two major springs and salinity distribution in this area is controlled by the seawater/freshwater interaction under different rainfall conditions: during low rainfall periods, seawater flow into the submarine spring through karst windows, then the salinity rising at the submarine spring leads to seawater further intrudes into conduit system; during high rainfall periods, seawater is pushed out by fresh water discharge at submarine spring. The previous numerical studies of WKP mainly focused on the density independent transport modeling and seawater/freshwater discharge at major karst springs, in this study, a SEAWAT model has been developed to fully investigate the salinity distribution in the WKP under repeating phases of low rainfall and high rainfall periods, the conduit system was simulated as porous media with high conductivity and porosity. The precipitation, salinity and discharge at springs were used to calibrate the model. The results showed that the salinity distribution in porous media and conduit system is controlled by the rainfall change, in general, the salinity distribution inland under low rainfall conditions is much higher and wider than the high rainfall conditions. The results propose a prediction on the environmental problem caused by seawater intrusion in karst coastal aquifer, in addition, provide a visual and scientific basis for future groundwater remediation.

Scaling of rotational inertia of primate mandibles.

PubMed

Ross, Callum F; Iriarte-Diaz, Jose; Platts, Ellen; Walsh, Treva; Heins, Liam; Gerstner, Geoffrey E; Taylor, Andrea B

2017-05-01

The relative importance of pendulum mechanics and muscle mechanics in chewing dynamics has implications for understanding the optimality criteria driving the evolution of primate feeding systems. The Spring Model (Ross et al., 2009b), which modeled the primate chewing system as a forced mass-spring system, predicted that chew cycle time would increase faster than was actually observed. We hypothesized that if mandibular momentum plays an important role in chewing dynamics, more accurate estimates of the rotational inertia of the mandible would improve the accuracy with which the Spring Model predicts the scaling of primate chew cycle period. However, if mass-related momentum effects are of negligible importance in the scaling of primate chew cycle period, this hypothesis would be falsified. We also predicted that greater "robusticity" of anthropoid mandibles compared with prosimians would be associated with higher moments of inertia. From computed tomography scans, we estimated the scaling of the moment of inertia (I j ) of the mandibles of thirty-one species of primates, including 22 anthropoid and nine prosimian species, separating I j into the moment about a transverse axis through the center of mass (I xx ) and the moment of the center of mass about plausible axes of rotation. We found that across primates I j increases with positive allometry relative to jaw length, primarily due to positive allometry of jaw mass and I xx , and that anthropoid mandibles have greater rotational inertia compared with prosimian mandibles of similar length. Positive allometry of I j of primate mandibles actually lowers the predictive ability of the Spring Model, suggesting that scaling of primate chew cycle period, and chewing dynamics in general, are more strongly influenced by factors other than scaling of inertial properties of the mandible, such as the dynamic properties of the jaw muscles and neural control. Differences in cycle period scaling between chewing and locomotion systems reinforce the suggestion that displacement and force control are more important in the design of feeding systems than energetics and speed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spring-fen habitat islands in a warming climate: Partitioning the effects of mesoclimate air and water temperature on aquatic and terrestrial biota.

PubMed

Horsák, Michal; Polášková, Vendula; Zhai, Marie; Bojková, Jindřiška; Syrovátka, Vít; Šorfová, Vanda; Schenková, Jana; Polášek, Marek; Peterka, Tomáš; Hájek, Michal

2018-09-01

Climate warming and associated environmental changes lead to compositional shifts and local extinctions in various ecosystems. Species closely associated with rare island-like habitats such as groundwater-dependent spring fens can be severely threatened by these changes due to a limited possibility to disperse. It is, however, largely unknown to what extent mesoclimate affects species composition in spring fens, where microclimate is buffered by groundwater supply. We assembled an original landscape-scale dataset on species composition of the most waterlogged parts of isolated temperate spring fens in the Western Carpathian Mountains along with continuously measured water temperature and hydrological, hydrochemical, and climatic conditions. We explored a set of hypotheses about the effects of mesoclimate air and local spring-water temperature on compositional variation of aquatic (macroinvertebrates), semi-terrestrial (plants) and terrestrial (land snails) components of spring-fen biota, categorized as habitat specialists and other species (i.e. matrix-derived). Water temperature did not show a high level of correlation with mesoclimate. For all components, fractions of compositional variation constrained to temperature were statistically significant and higher for habitat specialists than for other species. The importance of air temperature at the expense of water temperature and its fluctuation clearly increased with terrestriality, i.e. from aquatic macroinvertebrates via vegetation (bryophytes and vascular plants) to land snails, with January air temperature being the most important factor for land snails and plant specialists. Some calcareous-fen specialists with a clear distribution centre in temperate Europe showed a strong affinity to climatically cold sites in our study area and may hence be considered as threatened by climate warming. We conclude that prediction models solely based on air temperature may provide biased estimates of future changes in spring fen communities, because their aquatic and semiterrestrial components are largely affected by water temperature that is modified by local hydrological and landscape settings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merkle, Jerod A.; Cross, Paul C.; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Cole, Eric K.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2018-01-01

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission.Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [Cervus Canadensis] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts.Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands.Synthesis and applications. Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

Temporal Patterns and Environmental Correlates of Macroinvertebrate Communities in Temporary Streams.

PubMed

Botwe, Paul K; Barmuta, Leon A; Magierowski, Regina; McEvoy, Paul; Goonan, Peter; Carver, Scott

2015-01-01

Temporary streams are characterised by short periods of seasonal or annual stream flow after which streams contract into waterholes or pools of varying hydrological connectivity and permanence. Although these streams are widespread globally, temporal variability of their ecology is understudied, and understanding the processes that structure community composition in these systems is vital for predicting and managing the consequences of anthropogenic impacts. We used multivariate and univariate approaches to investigate temporal variability in macroinvertebrate compositional data from 13 years of sampling across multiple sites from autumn and spring, in South Australia, the driest state in the driest inhabited continent in the world. We examined the potential of land-use, geographic and environmental variables to predict the temporal variability in macroinvertebrate assemblages, and also identified indicator taxa, that is, those highly correlated with the most significantly associated physical variables. Temporal trajectories of macroinvertebrate communities varied within site in both seasons and across years. A combination of land-use, geographic and environmental variables accounted for 24% of the variation in community structure in autumn and 27% in spring. In autumn, community composition among sites were more closely clustered together relative to spring suggesting that communities were more similar in autumn than in spring. In both seasons, community structure was most strongly correlated with conductivity and latitude, and community structure was more associated with cover by agriculture than urban land-use. Maintaining temporary streams will require improved catchment management aimed at sustaining seasonal flows and critical refuge habitats, while also limiting the damaging effects from increased agriculture and urban developments.

Temporal Patterns and Environmental Correlates of Macroinvertebrate Communities in Temporary Streams

PubMed Central

Botwe, Paul K.; Barmuta, Leon A.; Magierowski, Regina; McEvoy, Paul; Goonan, Peter; Carver, Scott

2015-01-01

Temporary streams are characterised by short periods of seasonal or annual stream flow after which streams contract into waterholes or pools of varying hydrological connectivity and permanence. Although these streams are widespread globally, temporal variability of their ecology is understudied, and understanding the processes that structure community composition in these systems is vital for predicting and managing the consequences of anthropogenic impacts. We used multivariate and univariate approaches to investigate temporal variability in macroinvertebrate compositional data from 13 years of sampling across multiple sites from autumn and spring, in South Australia, the driest state in the driest inhabited continent in the world. We examined the potential of land-use, geographic and environmental variables to predict the temporal variability in macroinvertebrate assemblages, and also identified indicator taxa, that is, those highly correlated with the most significantly associated physical variables. Temporal trajectories of macroinvertebrate communities varied within site in both seasons and across years. A combination of land-use, geographic and environmental variables accounted for 24% of the variation in community structure in autumn and 27% in spring. In autumn, community composition among sites were more closely clustered together relative to spring suggesting that communities were more similar in autumn than in spring. In both seasons, community structure was most strongly correlated with conductivity and latitude, and community structure was more associated with cover by agriculture than urban land-use. Maintaining temporary streams will require improved catchment management aimed at sustaining seasonal flows and critical refuge habitats, while also limiting the damaging effects from increased agriculture and urban developments. PMID:26556711

Agronomie implications of waterfowl management in Mississippi ricefields

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manley, S.W.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.; Gerard, P.D.

2005-01-01

Ricefields are important foraging habitat for waterfowl and other waterbirds in several North American wintering areas, including the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). Rice growers are likely to adopt management practices that provide habitat for waterfowl if agronomic benefits also occur. Therefore, we conducted a replicated field experiment during autumn through spring 1995-1997 to study effects of postharvest field treatment and winter-water management on agronomic variables including biomass of residual rice straw, cool-season grasses and forbs (i.e., winter weeds), and viability of red rice (Oryza sativa var.). The treatment combination of postharvest disking and flooding until early March reduced straw 68%, from 9,938 kg/ha after harvest to 3,209 kg/ha in spring. Treatment combinations that included flooding until early March were most effective in suppressing winter weeds and decreased their biomass in spring by 83% when compared to the average of other treatment combinations. Effects of treatment combinations on spring viability of red rice differed between winters, but no significant effects were found within winters. Autumn disking followed by flooding until early March reduced rice straw and suppressed winter weeds the most, but with additional costs. To obtain the most agronomic benefits, we recommend that rice growers forgo autumn disking and flood fields until early March, which will provide moderate straw reduction, good weed suppression, and predicted savings of $22.24-62.93/ha (U.S.) ($9.00-25.47/ac). Maintenance of floods on ricefields until early March also benefits waterfowl and other waterbirds by providing foraging habitat throughout winter.

Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

PubMed

Green, David M

2017-02-01

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The value of enduring environmental surrogates as predictors of estuarine benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wildsmith, Michelle D.; Valesini, Fiona J.; Robinson, Samuel F.

2017-10-01

This study tested the extent to which spatial differences in the benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages of a temperate microtidal estuary were 'explained' by the enduring (biophysical) vs non-enduring (water and sediment quality) environmental attributes of a diverse range of habitats, and thus the potential of those environmental surrogates to support faunal prediction. Species composition differed significantly among habitats in each season, with the greatest differences occurring in winter and spring and the least in summer. The pattern of habitat differences, as defined by their enduring environmental characteristics, was significantly and well matched with that in the fauna in each season. In contrast, significant matches between the non-enduring environmental and faunal data were only detected in winter and/or spring, and to a lesser extent. Field validation of the faunal prediction capacity of the biophysical surrogate framework at various 'test' sites throughout the estuary showed good agreement between the actual vs predicted key species. These findings demonstrate that enduring environmental criteria, which can be readily measured from mapped data, provide a better and more cost-effective surrogate for explaining spatial differences in the invertebrate fauna of this system than non-enduring criteria, and are thus a promising basis for faunal prediction. The approaches developed in this study are also readily adapted to any estuary worldwide.

The Role of Family for Youth Friendships: Examining a Social Anxiety Mechanism.

PubMed

Mak, Hio Wa; Fosco, Gregory M; Feinberg, Mark E

2018-02-01

The quality of family relationships and youth friendships are intricately linked. Previous studies have examined different mechanisms of family-peer linkage, but few have examined social anxiety. The present study examined whether parental rejection and family climate predicted changes in youth social anxiety, which in turn predicted changes in friendship quality and loneliness. Possible bidirectional associations also were examined. Data for mothers, fathers, and youth (M age at Time 1 = 11.27; 52.3% were female) from 687 two-parent households over three time points are presented. Results from autoregressive, cross-lagged analyses revealed that father rejection (not mother rejection or family climate) at Time 1 (Fall of 6th Grade) predicted increased youth social anxiety at Time 2 (Spring of 7th Grade), which in turn, predicted increased loneliness at Time 3 (Spring of 8th Grade). The indirect effect of father rejection on loneliness was statistically significant. Mother rejection, father rejection, and a poor family climate were associated with decreased friendship quality and increased loneliness over time. Finally, there was some evidence of transactional associations between father rejection and youth social anxiety as well as between social anxiety and loneliness. This study's findings underscore the important role of fathers in youth social anxiety and subsequent social adjustment.

Evolution of the Antarctic polar vortex in spring: Response of a GCM to a prescribed Antarctic ozone hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boville, B. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P.

1988-01-01

The possible effect of the Antartic ozone hole on the evolution of the polar vortex during late winter and spring using a general circulation model (GCM) is examined. The GCM is a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model whose domain extends from the surface to the mesosphere and is similar to that described on Boville and Randel (1986). Ozone is not a predicted variable in the model. A zonally averaged ozone distribution is specified as a function of latitude, pressure and month for the radiation parameterization. Rather that explicitly address reasons for the formation of the ozone hole, researchers postulate its existence and ask what effect it has on the subsequent evolution of the vortex. The evolution of the model when an ozone hole is imposed is then discussed.

THE EFFECTS OF MAINTENANCE ACTIONS ON THE PFDavg OF SPRING OPERATED PRESSURE RELIEF VALVES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.; Gross, R.

2014-04-01

The safety integrity level (SIL) of equipment used in safety instrumented functions is determined by the average probability of failure on demand (PFDavg) computed at the time of periodic inspection and maintenance, i.e., the time of proof testing. The computation of PFDavg is generally based solely on predictions or estimates of the assumed constant failure rate of the equipment. However, PFDavg is also affected by maintenance actions (or lack thereof) taken by the end user. This paper shows how maintenance actions can affect the PFDavg of spring operated pressure relief valves (SOPRV) and how these maintenance actions may be accountedmore » for in the computation of the PFDavg metric. The method provides a means for quantifying the effects of changes in maintenance practices and shows how these changes impact plant safety.« less

The Effects of Maintenance Actions on the PFDavg of Spring Operated Pressure Relief Valves

DOE PAGES

Harris, S.; Gross, R.; Goble, W; ...

2015-12-01

The safety integrity level (SIL) of equipment used in safety instrumented functions is determined by the average probability of failure on demand (PFDavg) computed at the time of periodic inspection and maintenance, i.e., the time of proof testing. The computation of PFDavg is generally based solely on predictions or estimates of the assumed constant failure rate of the equipment. However, PFDavg is also affected by maintenance actions (or lack thereof) taken by the end user. This paper shows how maintenance actions can affect the PFDavg of spring operated pressure relief valves (SOPRV) and how these maintenance actions may be accountedmore » for in the computation of the PFDavg metric. The method provides a means for quantifying the effects of changes in maintenance practices and shows how these changes impact plant safety.« less

Comparison of environmental and body temperatures as predictors of mating call parameters of spring peepers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, L.E.; Brown, J.R.

1977-01-01

Parameters of the mating call of spring peepers (Hyla crucifer) were best predicted by water temperature rather than air or body temperature. Thus, water temperature should most closely approach the true body temperature of the calling frogs.

Coupled thermomechanical behavior of graphene using the spring-based finite element approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgantzinos, S. K., E-mail: sgeor@mech.upatras.gr; Anifantis, N. K., E-mail: nanif@mech.upatras.gr; Giannopoulos, G. I., E-mail: ggiannopoulos@teiwest.gr

The prediction of the thermomechanical behavior of graphene using a new coupled thermomechanical spring-based finite element approach is the aim of this work. Graphene sheets are modeled in nanoscale according to their atomistic structure. Based on molecular theory, the potential energy is defined as a function of temperature, describing the interatomic interactions in different temperature environments. The force field is approached by suitable straight spring finite elements. Springs simulate the interatomic interactions and interconnect nodes located at the atomic positions. Their stiffness matrix is expressed as a function of temperature. By using appropriate boundary conditions, various different graphene configurations aremore » analyzed and their thermo-mechanical response is approached using conventional finite element procedures. A complete parametric study with respect to the geometric characteristics of graphene is performed, and the temperature dependency of the elastic material properties is finally predicted. Comparisons with available published works found in the literature demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.« less

Regional and climatic controls on seasonal dust deposition in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, M.C.; Urban, F.E.

2011-01-01

Vertical dust deposition rates (dust flux) are a complex response to the interaction of seasonal precipitation, wind, changes in plant cover and land use, dust source type, and local vs. distant dust emission in the southwestern U.S. Seasonal dust flux in the Mojave-southern Great Basin (MSGB) deserts, measured from 1999 to 2008, is similar in summer-fall and winter-spring, and antecedent precipitation tends to suppress dust flux in winter-spring. In contrast, dust flux in the eastern Colorado Plateau (ECP) region is much larger in summer-fall than in winter-spring, and twice as large as in the MSGB. ECP dust is related to wind speed, and in the winter-spring to antecedent moisture. Higher summer dust flux in the ECP is likely due to gustier winds and runoff during monsoonal storms when temperature is also higher. Source types in the MSGB and land use in the ECP have important effects on seasonal dust flux. In the MSGB, wet playas produce salt-rich dust during wetter seasons, whereas antecedent and current moisture suppress dust emission from alluvial and dry-playa sources during winter-spring. In the ECP under drought conditions, dust flux at a grazed-and-plowed site increased greatly, and also increased at three annualized, previously grazed sites. Dust fluxes remained relatively consistent at ungrazed and currently grazed sites that have maintained perennial vegetation cover. Under predicted scenarios of future climate change, these results suggest that an increase in summer storms may increase dust flux in both areas, but resultant effects will depend on source type, land use, and vegetation cover. ?? 2011.

Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: a phylogenetic meta-analysis.

PubMed

Usui, Takuji; Butchart, Stuart H M; Phillimore, Albert B

2017-03-01

There are wide reports of advances in the timing of spring migration of birds over time and in relation to rising temperatures, though phenological responses vary substantially within and among species. An understanding of the ecological, life-history and geographic variables that predict this intra- and interspecific variation can guide our projections of how populations and species are likely to respond to future climate change. Here, we conduct phylogenetic meta-analyses addressing slope estimates of the timing of avian spring migration regressed on (i) year and (ii) temperature, representing a total of 413 species across five continents. We take into account slope estimation error and examine phylogenetic, ecological and geographic predictors of intra- and interspecific variation. We confirm earlier findings that on average birds have significantly advanced their spring migration time by 2·1 days per decade and 1·2 days °C -1 . We find that over time and in response to warmer spring conditions, short-distance migrants have advanced spring migratory phenology by more than long-distance migrants. We also find that larger bodied species show greater advance over time compared to smaller bodied species. Our results did not reveal any evidence that interspecific variation in migration response is predictable on the basis of species' habitat or diet. We detected a substantial phylogenetic signal in migration time in response to both year and temperature, suggesting that some of the shifts in migratory phenological response to climate are predictable on the basis of phylogeny. However, we estimate high levels of species and spatial variance relative to phylogenetic variance, which is consistent with plasticity in response to climate evolving fairly rapidly and being more influenced by adaptation to current local climate than by common descent. On average, avian spring migration times have advanced over time and as spring has become warmer. While we are able to identify predictors that explain some of the true among-species variation in response, substantial intra- and interspecific variation in migratory response remains to be explained. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Genomic Prediction with Pedigree and Genotype × Environment Interaction in Spring Wheat Grown in South and West Asia, North Africa, and Mexico.

PubMed

Sukumaran, Sivakumar; Crossa, Jose; Jarquin, Diego; Lopes, Marta; Reynolds, Matthew P

2017-02-09

Developing genomic selection (GS) models is an important step in applying GS to accelerate the rate of genetic gain in grain yield in plant breeding. In this study, seven genomic prediction models under two cross-validation (CV) scenarios were tested on 287 advanced elite spring wheat lines phenotyped for grain yield (GY), thousand-grain weight (GW), grain number (GN), and thermal time for flowering (TTF) in 18 international environments (year-location combinations) in major wheat-producing countries in 2010 and 2011. Prediction models with genomic and pedigree information included main effects and interaction with environments. Two random CV schemes were applied to predict a subset of lines that were not observed in any of the 18 environments (CV1), and a subset of lines that were not observed in a set of the environments, but were observed in other environments (CV2). Genomic prediction models, including genotype × environment (G×E) interaction, had the highest average prediction ability under the CV1 scenario for GY (0.31), GN (0.32), GW (0.45), and TTF (0.27). For CV2, the average prediction ability of the model including the interaction terms was generally high for GY (0.38), GN (0.43), GW (0.63), and TTF (0.53). Wheat lines in site-year combinations in Mexico and India had relatively high prediction ability for GY and GW. Results indicated that prediction ability of lines not observed in certain environments could be relatively high for genomic selection when predicting G×E interaction in multi-environment trials. Copyright © 2017 Sukumaran et al.

Prospective associations between friendship adjustment and social strategies: friendship as a context for building social skills.

PubMed

Glick, Gary C; Rose, Amanda J

2011-07-01

The proposal that friendships provide a context for the development of social skills is widely accepted. Yet little research exists to support this claim. In the present study, children and adolescents (N = 912) were presented with vignettes in which a friend encountered a social stressor and they could help the friend and vignettes in which they encountered a stressor and could seek help from the friend. Social strategies in response to these vignettes were assessed in the fall and spring of the school year. Different indicators of friendship adjustment had unique effects on youths' strategies in response to helping tasks. Whereas having more friends predicted decreases in avoidant or hostile strategies, having high-quality friendships predicted emotionally engaged strategies that involved talking about the problem. Moreover, whereas having more friends predicted increases in relatively disengaged strategies, like distraction and acting like the problem never happened, having high-quality friendships predicted decreases in these strategies. The present study also tested whether youths' strategies in the fall predicted changes in friendship adjustment by the spring. Only strategies which may be seen as major friendship transgressions (i.e., avoiding or blaming the friend when the friend encounters a problem) predicted changes in friendship over time. Collectively, these results provide important new information on the interplay between social competencies and friendship experiences and suggest that friendships may provide a critical venue for the development of important relationship skills. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Prospective Associations Between Friendship Adjustment and Social Strategies: Friendship as a Context for Building Social Skills

PubMed Central

Glick, Gary C.; Rose, Amanda J.

2012-01-01

The proposal that friendships provide a context for the development of social skills is widely accepted. Yet little research exists to support these claims. In the present study, children and adolescents (N = 912) were presented with vignettes in which their friend encountered a social stressor and they could help the friend and vignettes in which they encountered a stressor and could seek help from the friend. Social strategies in response to these vignettes were assessed in the fall and spring of the school year. Notably, different indicators of friendship adjustment had unique effects on youths’ strategies in response to helping tasks. Whereas having more friends predicted decreases in avoidant or hostile strategies, having high-quality friendships predicted emotionally-engaged strategies that involved talking about the problem. Moreover, whereas having more friends predicted increases in relatively disengaged strategies, like distraction and acting like the problem never happened, having high-quality predicted decreases in these strategies. The present study also tested whether youths’ strategies in fall predicted changes in friendship adjustment by the spring. Only strategies which may be seen as major friendship transgressions (i.e., avoiding or blaming the friend when the friend encounters a problem) predicted changes in friendship over time. Collectively, these results provide important new information on the interplay between social competencies and friendship experiences and suggest that friendships may provide a critical venue for the development of important relationship skills. PMID:21443336

Investigations of the effects of particle properties on the wear resistance of the particle reinforced composites using a novel wear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhu, T. Ram

2016-08-01

A wear model is developed based on the discrete lattice spring-mass approach to study the effects of particle volume fraction, size, and stiffness on the wear resistance of particle reinforced composites. To study these effects, we have considered three volume fractions (10%, 20% and 30%), two sizes (10 × 10 and 4 × 4 sites), and two different stiffness of particles embedded in the matrix in a regular pattern. In this model, we have discretized the composite system (400 × 100 sites) into the lumped masses connected with interaction spring elements in two dimensions. The interaction elements are assumed as linear elastic and ideal plastic under applied forces. Each mass is connected to its first and second nearest neighbors by springs. The matrix and particles sites are differentiated by choosing the different stiffness values. The counter surface is simulated as a rigid body that moves on the composite material at a constant sliding speed along the horizontal direction. The governing equations are formed by equating the spring force between the pair of sites given by Hooke’s law plus external contact forces and the force due to the motion of the site given by the equation of motion. The equations are solved for the plastic strain accumulated in the springs using an explicit time stepping procedure based on a finite difference form of the above equations. If the total strain accumulated in the spring elements connected to a lump mass site exceeds the failure strain, the springs are considered to be broken, and the mass site is removed or worn away from the lattice and accounts as a wear loss. The model predicts that (i) increasing volume fraction, reducing particle size and increasing particle stiffness enhance the wear resistance of the particle reinforced composites, (ii) the particle stiffness is the most significant factor affecting the wear resistance of the composites, and (iii) the wear resistance reduced above the critical volume fraction (Vc), and Vc increases with increasing particle size. Finally, we have qualitatively compared the model results with our previously published experimental results to prove the effectiveness of the model to analysis the complex wear systems.

Hydraulic effects on nitrogen removal in a tidal spring-fed river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hensley, Robert T.; Cohen, Matthew J.; Korhnak, Larry V.

2015-03-01

Hydraulic properties such as stage and residence time are important controls on riverine N removal. In most rivers, these hydraulic properties vary with stochastic precipitation forcing, but in tidal rivers, hydraulics variation occurs on a predictable cycle. In Manatee Springs, a highly productive, tidally influenced spring-fed river in Florida, we observed significant reach-scale N removal that varied in response to tidally driven variation in hydraulic properties as well as sunlight-driven variation in assimilatory uptake. After accounting for channel residence time and stage variation, we partitioned the total removal signal into assimilatory (i.e., plant uptake) and dissimilatory (principally denitrification) pathways. Assimilatory uptake was strongly correlated with primary production and ecosystem C:N was concordant with tissue stoichiometry of the dominant autotrophs. The magnitude of N removal was broadly consistent in magnitude with predictions from models (SPARROW and RivR-N). However, contrary to model predictions, the highest removal occurred at the lowest values of τ/d (residence time divided by depth), which occurred at low tide. Removal efficiency also exhibited significant counterclockwise hysteresis with incoming versus outgoing tides. This behavior is best explained by the sequential filling and draining of transient storage zones such that water that has spent the longest time in the storage zone, and thus had the most time for N removal, drains back into the channel at the end of an outgoing tide, concurrent with shortest channel residence times. Capturing this inversion of the expected relationship between channel residence time and N removal highlights the need for nonsteady state reactive transport models.

Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely sensed observations of the enhanced vegetation index. These findings could be used in forest managements for identifying vulnerable forests based on their habitat type and hydrological status.

MCTBI: a web server for predicting metal ion effects in RNA structures.

PubMed

Sun, Li-Zhen; Zhang, Jing-Xiang; Chen, Shi-Jie

2017-08-01

Metal ions play critical roles in RNA structure and function. However, web servers and software packages for predicting ion effects in RNA structures are notably scarce. Furthermore, the existing web servers and software packages mainly neglect ion correlation and fluctuation effects, which are potentially important for RNAs. We here report a new web server, the MCTBI server (http://rna.physics.missouri.edu/MCTBI), for the prediction of ion effects for RNA structures. This server is based on the recently developed MCTBI, a model that can account for ion correlation and fluctuation effects for nucleic acid structures and can provide improved predictions for the effects of metal ions, especially for multivalent ions such as Mg 2+ effects, as shown by extensive theory-experiment test results. The MCTBI web server predicts metal ion binding fractions, the most probable bound ion distribution, the electrostatic free energy of the system, and the free energy components. The results provide mechanistic insights into the role of metal ions in RNA structure formation and folding stability, which is important for understanding RNA functions and the rational design of RNA structures. © 2017 Sun et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, John T.; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.

2015-04-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric convection in the tropical Pacific, and modulates global weather and climate. The phase of ENSO influences United States (US) temperature and precipitation and has long been hypothesized to influence severe thunderstorm occurrence over the US. However, limitations of the severe thunderstorm observational record, combined with large year-to-year variability, have made it difficult to demonstrate an ENSO influence during the peak spring season. Here we use environmental indices that are correlated with tornado and hail activity, and show that ENSO modulates tornado and hail occurrence during the winter and spring by altering the large-scale environment. We show that fewer tornadoes and hail events occur over the central US during El Niño and conversely more occur during La Niña conditions. Moreover, winter ENSO conditions often persist into early spring, and consequently the winter ENSO state can be used to predict changes in tornado and hail frequency during the following spring. Combined with our current ability to predict ENSO several months in advance, our findings provide a basis for long-range seasonal prediction of severe thunderstorm activity.

Microbiology and geochemistry of Little Hot Creek, a hot spring environment in the Long Valley Caldera.

PubMed

Vick, T J; Dodsworth, J A; Costa, K C; Shock, E L; Hedlund, B P

2010-03-01

A culture-independent community census was combined with chemical and thermodynamic analyses of three springs located within the Long Valley Caldera, Little Hot Creek (LHC) 1, 3, and 4. All three springs were approximately 80 degrees C, circumneutral, apparently anaerobic and had similar water chemistries. 16S rRNA gene libraries constructed from DNA isolated from spring sediment revealed moderately diverse but highly novel microbial communities. Over half of the phylotypes could not be grouped into known taxonomic classes. Bacterial libraries from LHC1 and LHC3 were predominantly species within the phyla Aquificae and Thermodesulfobacteria, while those from LHC4 were dominated by candidate phyla, including OP1 and OP9. Archaeal libraries from LHC3 contained large numbers of Archaeoglobales and Desulfurococcales, while LHC1 and LHC4 were dominated by Crenarchaeota unaffiliated with known orders. The heterogeneity in microbial populations could not easily be attributed to measurable differences in water chemistry, but may be determined by availability of trace amounts of oxygen to the spring sediments. Thermodynamic modeling predicted the most favorable reactions to be sulfur and nitrate respirations, yielding 40-70 kJ mol(-1) e(-) transferred; however, levels of oxygen at or below our detection limit could result in aerobic respirations yielding up to 100 kJ mol(-1) e(-) transferred. Important electron donors are predicted to be H(2), H(2)S, S(0), Fe(2+) and CH(4), all of which yield similar energies when coupled to a given electron acceptor. The results indicate that springs associated with the Long Valley Caldera contain microbial populations that show some similarities both to springs in Yellowstone and springs in the Great Basin.

Forecasting spring from afar? Timing of migration and predictability of phenology along different migration routes of an avian herbivore.

PubMed

Kölzsch, Andrea; Bauer, Silke; de Boer, Rob; Griffin, Larry; Cabot, David; Exo, Klaus-Michael; van der Jeugd, Henk P; Nolet, Bart A

2015-01-01

Herbivorous birds are hypothesized to migrate in spring along a seasonal gradient of plant profitability towards their breeding grounds (green wave hypothesis). For Arctic breeding species in particular, following highly profitable food is important, so that they can replenish resources along the way and arrive in optimal body condition to start breeding early. We compared the timing of migratory movements of Arctic breeding geese on different flyways to examine whether flyways differed in the predictability of spring conditions at stopovers and whether this was reflected in the degree to which birds were following the green wave. Barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) were tracked with solar GPS/ARGOS PTTs from their wintering grounds to breeding sites in Greenland (N = 7), Svalbard (N = 21) and the Barents Sea (N = 12). The numerous stopover sites of all birds were combined into a set of 16 general stopover regions. The predictability of climatic conditions along the flyways was calculated as the correlation and slope between onsets of spring at consecutive stopovers. These values differed between sites, mainly because of the presence or absence of ecological barriers. Goose arrival at stopovers was more closely tied to the local onset of spring when predictability was higher and when geese attempted breeding that year. All birds arrived at early stopovers after the onset of spring and arrived at the breeding grounds before the onset of spring, thus overtaking the green wave. This is in accordance with patterns expected for capital breeders: first, they must come into condition; at intermediate stopovers, arrival with the food quality peak is important to stay in condition, and at the breeding grounds, early arrival is favoured so that hatching of young can coincide with the peak of food quality. Our results suggest that a chain of correlations between climatic conditions at subsequent stopovers enables geese to closely track the green wave. However, the birds' precision of migratory timing seems uninfluenced by ecological barriers, indicating partly fixed migration schedules. These might become non-optimal due to climate warming and preclude accurate timing of long-distance migrants in the future. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico.

PubMed

Parmenter, R R; Yadav, E P; Parmenter, C A; Ettestad, P; Gage, K L

1999-11-01

Plague occurs episodically in many parts of the world, and some outbreaks appear to be related to increased abundance of rodents and other mammals that serve as hosts for vector fleas. Climate dynamics may influence the abundance of both fleas and mammals, thereby having an indirect effect on human plague incidence. An understanding of the relationship between climate and plague could be useful in predicting periods of increased risk of plague transmission. In this study, we used correlation analyses of 215 human cases of plague in relation to precipitation records from 1948 to 1996 in areas of New Mexico with history of human plague cases (38 cities, towns, and villages). We conducted analyses using 3 spatial scales: global (El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indices [SOI]); regional (pooled state-wide precipitation averages); and local (precipitation data from weather stations near plague case sites). We found that human plague cases in New Mexico occurred more frequently following winter-spring periods (October to May) with above-average precipitation (mean plague years = 113% of normal rain/ snowfall), resulting in 60% more cases of plague in humans following wet versus dry winter-spring periods. However, we obtained significant results at local level only; regional state-wide precipitation averages and SOI values exhibited no significant correlations to incidence of human plague cases. These results are consistent with our hypothesis of a trophic cascade in which increased winter-spring precipitation enhances small mammal food resource productivity (plants and insects), leading to an increase in the abundance of plague hosts. In addition, moister climate conditions may act to promote flea survival and reproduction, also enhancing plague transmission. Finally, the result that the number of human plague cases in New Mexico was positively associated with higher than normal winter-spring precipitation at a local scale can be used by physicians and public health personnel to identify and predict periods of increased risk of plague transmission to humans.

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliavacca, M.; Cremonese, E.; Colombo, R.; Busetto, L.; Galvagno, M.; Ganis, L.; Meroni, M.; Pari, E.; Rossini, M.; Siniscalco, C.; Morra di Cella, U.

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (BGS) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (LGS) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

PubMed

Migliavacca, M; Cremonese, E; Colombo, R; Busetto, L; Galvagno, M; Ganis, L; Meroni, M; Pari, E; Rossini, M; Siniscalco, C; Morra di Cella, U

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (B(GS)) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (L(GS)) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

Prediction of Summer Extreme Precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Ning, L.; Liu, J.; Yan, M.; Sun, W.

2017-12-01

Abstract: Summer extreme precipitation (SEP) often causes severe landslide, debris flow and floods over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MLYRB), so skillful prediction of the SEP is critical to the future climate adaptions and mitigations. In this work, the characteristic region over the MLYRB (27°N-32°N,108°1-118°E) is defined by the spatial mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) of SEP over the China from 1961 to 2014. A physics-based empirical model (PEM) of SEP predictions is built with two preceding predictors with significant physical influences on the SEP over the MLYRB. The first predictor is the spring sea surface temperature (SST) over the Northern Indian Ocean (20°S-20°N,50°E-95°E), and the second predictor is the spring sea surface pressure (SLP) over the Aleutian Island (50°N-70°N,160°E-160°W). Analyses of physical mechanism show that when the spring SST over the Northern Indian Ocean is higher, the South Asian High (SAH) extends to the east and the western Pacific sub-tropical high (WPSH) extends to the west, therefore, the generated secondary circulation induces anomalous upward motions and more water vapor transportation to the MLYRB, resulting more SEP. Meanwhile, when the spring SLP over the Aleutian Island is lower, the also WPSH extends to the west, which leads to a negative omega anomaly centered the MLYRB and more water vapor transportation to the MLYRB, resulting in more SEP. The regression model is built using the data from a training period from 1961 to 1999 with correlation coefficient skill of 0.57 (p<0.01) for prediction of SEP in 1961-1999. The independent forecast of the PEM shows that it is skillful in SEP prediction with the correlation coefficient between observed SEP and model-simulated SEP over the validation period 2000-2014 is 0.51 (p<0.05). This finding shows that the preceding spring SST and SLP can provide useful information for prediction of SEP, and the methodology proposed here can be applied to a wide range of climate prediction studies. The future improvements are also discussed.

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

Semester and Event-Specific Motives for Alcohol Use During Spring Break: Associated Protective Strategies and Negative Consequences

PubMed Central

Patrick, Megan E.; Lewis, Melissa A.; Lee, Christine M.; Maggs, Jennifer L.

2012-01-01

Motives surrounding alcohol use behavior are important for understanding college student drinking. However, no previous research has addressed how motives for and against drinking during specific events associated with high-risk drinking, such as Spring Break, may differ from motives for and against drinking during the regular semester. Further, we examine the extent to which semester and Spring Break motives are associated with alcohol use, protective behavioral strategies (PBS), and consequences. Participants were college students (N = 261; 55% women) who provided data both immediately prior to (Wave 1) and after (Wave 2) Spring Break. Fun/Social motives for drinking were greater for Spring Break, and Driving motives against drinking were lower for Spring Break, compared to semester drinking. Relax and Image motives for drinking and Physical/Behavioral motives for not drinking during Spring Break did not differ from semester motives. Spring Break motives for and against drinking were associated with total drinks, maximum drinks, PBS, and experienced negative consequences during Spring Break. Students’ specific motives regarding drinking during Spring Break predict high-risk drinking and may be utilized in creating salient event-specific interventions. PMID:23384451

Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains, northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Shen, Y.; Wang, N.; Pan, X.; Zhang, W.; He, J.; Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in northwest China, and it is also crucial for local ecological system, economic and social sustainable development; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both eco-environment and public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature-index model based on remote sensing coupled with high-resolution meteorological data obtained from NCEP reanalysis fields that were downscaled using Weather Research Forecasting model, then bias-corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high-resolution meteorological fields derived from downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of temperature-index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using MODIS snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature-index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash-Sutchliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt runoff was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt runoff accounts for 72% of spring runoff and 21% of annual runoff. Snowmelt is the main source of runoff for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt runoff predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt-induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high-density, long-term observational data is lacking.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-03-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Spring Constants for Stacks of Curved Leaves of Pyrolytic Boron Nitride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaforey, M. L.; Deeb, C. W.; Matthiesen, D. H.

1999-01-01

Stacks of curved leaves of pyrolytic boron nitride (PBN) were deflected and the force versus deflection data was recorded. From this data, the spring constant for a given spring geometry (radius of curvature of a leaf, width of a leaf, thickness of a leaf, and number of leaves in the stack) was determined. These experiments were performed at room temperature, 500 C and 1000 C. However, temperature was not found to affect the spring constant. The measured values were generally within one order of magnitude of predictions made using a previously derived equation for a simply supported cylindrical section with a line force at the center.

Bearing-Load Modeling and Analysis Study for Mechanically Connected Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.

2006-01-01

Bearing-load response for a pin-loaded hole is studied within the context of two-dimensional finite element analyses. Pin-loaded-hole configurations are representative of mechanically connected structures, such as a stiffener fastened to a rib of an isogrid panel, that are idealized as part of a larger structural component. Within this context, the larger structural component may be idealized as a two-dimensional shell finite element model to identify load paths and high stress regions. Finite element modeling and analysis aspects of a pin-loaded hole are considered in the present paper including the use of linear and nonlinear springs to simulate the pin-bearing contact condition. Simulating pin-connected structures within a two-dimensional finite element analysis model using nonlinear spring or gap elements provides an effective way for accurate prediction of the local effective stress state and peak forces.

Hydrodynamic impact of a system with a single elastic mode I : theory and generalized solution with an application to an elastic airframe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayo, Wilbur L

1952-01-01

Solutions of impact of a rigid prismatic float connected by a massless spring to a rigid upper mass are presented. The solutions are based on hydrodynamic theory which has been experimentally confirmed for a rigid structure. Equations are given for defining the spring constant and the ratio of the sprung mass to the lower mass so that the two-mass system provides representation of the fundamental mode of an airplane wing. The forces calculated are more accurate than the forces which would be predicted for a rigid airframe since the effect of the fundamental mode on the hydrodynamic force is taken into account. In a comparison of the theoretical data with data for a severe flight-test landing impact, the effect of the fundamental mode on the hydrodynamic force is considered and response data are compared with experimental data.

Combined statistical and mechanistic modelling suggests food and temperature effects on survival of early life stages of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stige, Leif Chr.; Langangen, Øystein; Yaragina, Natalia A.; Vikebø, Frode B.; Bogstad, Bjarte; Ottersen, Geir; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Hjermann, Dag Ø.

2015-05-01

Understanding the causes of the large interannual fluctuations in the recruitment to many marine fishes is a key challenge in fisheries ecology. We here propose that the combination of mechanistic and statistical modelling of the pelagic early life stages (ELS) prior to recruitment can be a powerful approach for improving our understanding of local-scale and population-scale dynamics. Specifically, this approach allows separating effects of ocean transport and survival, and thereby enhances the knowledge of the processes that regulate recruitment. We analyse data on the pelagic eggs, larvae and post-larvae of Northeast Arctic cod and on copepod nauplii, the main prey of the cod larvae. The data originate from two surveys, one in spring and one in summer, for 30 years. A coupled physical-biological model is used to simulate the transport, ambient temperature and development of cod ELS from spawning through spring and summer. The predictions from this model are used as input in a statistical analysis of the summer data, to investigate effects of covariates thought to be linked to growth and survival. We find significant associations between the local-scale ambient copepod nauplii concentration and temperature in spring and the local-scale occurrence of cod (post)larvae in summer, consistent with effects on survival. Moreover, years with low copepod nauplii concentrations and low temperature in spring are significantly associated with lower mean length of the cod (post)larvae in summer, likely caused in part by higher mortality leading to increased dominance of young and hence small individuals. Finally, we find that the recruitment at age 3 is strongly associated with the mean body length of the cod ELS, highlighting the biological significance of the findings.

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Characterizing hydrochemical properties of springs in Taiwan based on their geological origins.

PubMed

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Chen, Jui-Sheng; Lin, Yun-Bin; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2012-01-01

This study was performed to characterize hydrochemical properties of springs based on their geological origins in Taiwan. Stepwise discriminant analysis (DA) was used to establish a linear classification model of springs using hydrochemical parameters. Two hydrochemical datasets-ion concentrations and relative proportions of equivalents per liter of major ions-were included to perform prediction of the geological origins of springs. Analyzed results reveal that DA using relative proportions of equivalents per liter of major ions yields a 95.6% right assignation, which is superior to DA using ion concentrations. This result indicates that relative proportions of equivalents of major hydrochemical parameters in spring water are more highly associated with the geological origins than ion concentrations do. Low percentages of Na(+) equivalents are common properties of springs emerging from acid-sulfate and neutral-sulfate igneous rock. Springs emerging from metamorphic rock show low percentages of Cl( - ) equivalents and high percentages of HCO[Formula: see text] equivalents, and springs emerging from sedimentary rock exhibit high Cl( - )/SO(2-)(4) ratios.

The gamma ray north-south effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, R. S.; O'Neill, T. J.; Tumer, O. T.; Zych, A. D.

1988-01-01

Theoretical calculations are presented that explain the balloon observations by O'Neill et al. (1987) of a strong north-south anisotropy of atmospheric gamma rays over the Southern Hemisphere, and to predict the north-south ratios. It is shown that the gamma rays that originate at the longest distances from the telescopes give the largest north-south ratios. Comparisons are made of the experimental north-south ratios measured on balloons launched from Alice Springs, Australia, and from Palestine, Texas, U.S., and predictions are made for ratios at other geomagnetic latitudes and longitudes. It is pointed out that observers who measure backgrounds for celestial sources may be misled unless they correct for the north-south effect.

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zelikova, Tamara J.; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Wertin, Timothy M.; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-01-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions.

PubMed

Zelikova, Tamara J; Hufbauer, Ruth A; Reed, Sasha C; Wertin, Timothy; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-05-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Quantification of the effects of VRN1 and Ppd-D1 to predict spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) heading time across diverse environments

PubMed Central

Zheng, Bangyou; Biddulph, Ben; Li, Dora; Kuchel, Haydn; Chapman, Scott

2013-01-01

Heading time is a major determinant of the adaptation of wheat to different environments, and is critical in minimizing risks of frost, heat, and drought on reproductive development. Given that major developmental genes are known in wheat, a process-based model, APSIM, was modified to incorporate gene effects into estimation of heading time, while minimizing degradation in the predictive capability of the model. Model parameters describing environment responses were replaced with functions of the number of winter and photoperiod (PPD)-sensitive alleles at the three VRN1 loci and the Ppd-D1 locus, respectively. Two years of vernalization and PPD trials of 210 lines (spring wheats) at a single location were used to estimate the effects of the VRN1 and Ppd-D1 alleles, with validation against 190 trials (~4400 observations) across the Australian wheatbelt. Compared with spring genotypes, winter genotypes for Vrn-A1 (i.e. with two winter alleles) had a delay of 76.8 degree days (°Cd) in time to heading, which was double the effect of the Vrn-B1 or Vrn-D1 winter genotypes. Of the three VRN1 loci, winter alleles at Vrn-B1 had the strongest interaction with PPD, delaying heading time by 99.0 °Cd under long days. The gene-based model had root mean square error of 3.2 and 4.3 d for calibration and validation datasets, respectively. Virtual genotypes were created to examine heading time in comparison with frost and heat events and showed that new longer-season varieties could be heading later (with potential increased yield) when sown early in season. This gene-based model allows breeders to consider how to target gene combinations to current and future production environments using parameters determined from a small set of phenotyping treatments. PMID:23873997

Quantification of the effects of VRN1 and Ppd-D1 to predict spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) heading time across diverse environments.

PubMed

Zheng, Bangyou; Biddulph, Ben; Li, Dora; Kuchel, Haydn; Chapman, Scott

2013-09-01

Heading time is a major determinant of the adaptation of wheat to different environments, and is critical in minimizing risks of frost, heat, and drought on reproductive development. Given that major developmental genes are known in wheat, a process-based model, APSIM, was modified to incorporate gene effects into estimation of heading time, while minimizing degradation in the predictive capability of the model. Model parameters describing environment responses were replaced with functions of the number of winter and photoperiod (PPD)-sensitive alleles at the three VRN1 loci and the Ppd-D1 locus, respectively. Two years of vernalization and PPD trials of 210 lines (spring wheats) at a single location were used to estimate the effects of the VRN1 and Ppd-D1 alleles, with validation against 190 trials (~4400 observations) across the Australian wheatbelt. Compared with spring genotypes, winter genotypes for Vrn-A1 (i.e. with two winter alleles) had a delay of 76.8 degree days (°Cd) in time to heading, which was double the effect of the Vrn-B1 or Vrn-D1 winter genotypes. Of the three VRN1 loci, winter alleles at Vrn-B1 had the strongest interaction with PPD, delaying heading time by 99.0 °Cd under long days. The gene-based model had root mean square error of 3.2 and 4.3 d for calibration and validation datasets, respectively. Virtual genotypes were created to examine heading time in comparison with frost and heat events and showed that new longer-season varieties could be heading later (with potential increased yield) when sown early in season. This gene-based model allows breeders to consider how to target gene combinations to current and future production environments using parameters determined from a small set of phenotyping treatments.

Effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation on interannual variability of spring precipitation in the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, J.; Choi, W.; Youn, D.; Park, D. R.; Kim, J.

2013-12-01

The effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the springtime rainfall variability in the western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined using the monthly data of GPCP precipitation, NOAA OLR, and ERA-interim reanalysis for the period of 1979-2011. The QBO phases during the spring are based on the Singapore zonal wind at 70 hPa and strong ENSO years are excluded from the analyses to investigate the sole influence of the QBO. The composite analyses of the precipitation, OLR, and related meteorological fields show that the WNP subtropical high (WNPSH) moves equatorward during the westerly QBO (WQBO) compared to the easterly QBO (EQBO) and the convergence region of moisture flux along the northwestern boundary of the WNPSH is displaced southward. In addition, the subtropical jet associated with the midlatitude frontal zone also shifts slightly southward during the WQBO compared to the EQBO. These QBO-related changes in large-scale meteorological fields induce the southward displacement of the midlatitude spring rainband extending from southeastern China to the east of the Japanese Islands and thus significant rainfall decrease in the Northeast Asia during the WQBO compared to the EQBO. The possible role of the QBO in modulating the WNPSH and subtropical jet is also discussed with regard to the strength of the Hadley circulation and the activity of subtropical planetary waves. The results of this study may improve the seasonal predictability of the spring rainfall in the Northeast Asia and the WNP region.

Denitrification and inference of nitrogen sources in the karstic Floridan Aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heffernan, J.B.; Albertin, A.R.; Fork, M.L.; Katz, B.G.; Cohen, M.J.

2011-01-01

Aquifer denitrification is among the most poorly constrained fluxes in global and regional nitrogen budgets. The few direct measurements of denitrification in groundwaters provide limited information about its spatial and temporal variability, particularly at the scale of whole aquifers. Uncertainty in estimates of denitrification may also lead to underestimates of its effect on isotopic signatures of inorganic N, and thereby confound the inference of N source from these data. In this study, our objectives are to quantify the magnitude and variability of denitrification in the Upper Floridan Aquifer (UFA) and evaluate its effect on N isotopic signatures at the regional scale. Using dual noble gas tracers (Ne, Ar) to generate physical predictions of N2 gas concentrations for 112 observations from 61 UFA springs, we show that excess (i.e. denitrification-derived) N2 is highly variable in space and inversely correlated with dissolved oxygen (O2). Negative relationship between O2 and ??15NNO 3 across a larger dataset of 113 springs, well-constrained isotopic fractionation coefficients, and strong 15N: 18O covariation further support inferences of denitrification in this uniquely organic-matter-poor system. Despite relatively low average rates, denitrification accounted for 32% of estimated aquifer N inputs across all sampled UFA springs. Back-calculations of source ??15NNO 3 based on denitrification progression suggest that isotopically-enriched nitrate (NO3-) in many springs of the UFA reflects groundwater denitrification rather than urban- or animal-derived inputs. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Impact of climate change on water resources in South Sikkim, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishwakarma, C. A.; Pant, M.; Asthana, H.; Singh, P.; Rena, V.; Mukherjee, S.

2016-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global mean temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C since 1861 and predicts an increase of 2 to 4° C over the next 100 years. The direct effect of climate change on groundwater resources depends on the variation in the volume and distribution of groundwater and its recharge. Ingty and Bawa (2012) have summarized the detailed observation of climate change and its impact on biodiversity and natural resources in the Lachen valley, Sikkim using weather-based indicator of climate change like lesser snowfall, shifts in seasonal timing, uneven rainfall, accelerated glacial melt, and drying of water sources. South Sikkim is the most drought-prone area of the state and this is worst hit district by climate change. In Sikkim, more than three-fourths people feel that the water resources are drying up and out of them 60.2% believe that there is less snow at present time rather than the past. The subsurface aquifers are mainly recharged by precipitation or through the interaction of surface water bodies like lakes, glaciers, streams and rivers. But due to the effect of climate change the rate of precipitation and snow cover melting, the water scarcity problem had started. According to Indian Meteorological Department (Namthang AWS, South Sikkim), the annual precipitation has decreased from 2533 mm to 1503 mm. Spring is the main source of water in South Sikkim and most of the spring have become seasonal or dried. The average spring discharge data in the year 2000 was 100.18 l/m and after ten years it decreased by 26.12 l/m. With the decrease in precipitation and spring discharge, the agriculture productivity also get affected and it affect the socio-economic condition of South district. This study looks into various factors impacting the discharge at springs highlighting the effect of climate change induced precipitation pattern and land cover dynamics using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use based Runoff Processes).

Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet physically plausible statistical estimation procedures may help us better untangle some climate mysteries.

Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds.

PubMed

Gale, P; Stephenson, B; Brouwer, A; Martinez, M; de la Torre, A; Bosch, J; Foley-Fisher, M; Bonilauri, P; Lindström, A; Ulrich, R G; de Vos, C J; Scremin, M; Liu, Z; Kelly, L; Muñoz, M J

2012-02-01

To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario. A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 × 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1·04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1·03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends. The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34% in this model. For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species. © 2011 Crown Copyright, AHVLA. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2011 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Comparison of spring measures of length, weight, and condition factor for predicting metamorphosis in two populations of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) larvae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henson, Mary P.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Adams, Jean V.

2003-01-01

The ability to predict when sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) will metamorphose from the larval phase to the parasitic phase is essential to the operation of the sea lamprey control program. During the spring of 1994, two populations of sea lamprey larvae from two rivers were captured, measured, weighed, implanted with coded wire tags, and returned to the same sites in the streams from which they were taken. Sea lampreys were recovered in the fall, after metamorphosis would have occurred, and checked for the presence of a tag. When the spring data were compared to the fall data it was found that the minimum requirements (length ≥ 120 mm, weight ≥ 3 g, and condition factor ≥ 1.50) suggested for metamorphosis did define a pool of larvae capable of metamorphosing. However, logistic regressions that relate the probability of metamorphosis to size are necessary to predict metamorphosis in a population. The data indicated, based on cross-validation, that weight measurements alone predicted metamorphosis with greater precision than length or condition factor in both the Marengo and Amnicon rivers. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, weight alone was a better predictor in the Amnicon River, but length and condition factor combined predicted metamorphosis better in the Marengo River. There would be no additional cost if weight alone were used instead of length. However, if length and weight were measured the gain in predictive power would not be enough to justify the additional cost.

An Integrative View of School Functioning: Transactions between Self-Regulation, School Engagement, and Teacher-Child Relationship Quality

PubMed Central

Portilla, Ximena A.; Ballard, Parissa J.; Adler, Nancy E.; Boyce, W. Thomas; Obradović, Jelena

2014-01-01

This study investigates the dynamic interplay between teacher-child relationship quality and children’s behaviors across kindergarten and first grade to predict academic competence in first grade. Using a sample of 338 ethnically diverse 5-year-old children, nested path analytic models were conducted to examine bidirectional pathways between children’s behaviors and teacher-child relationship quality. Low self-regulation in kindergarten fall, as indexed by inattention and impulsive behaviors, predicted more conflict with teachers in kindergarten spring and this effect persisted into first grade. Conflict and low self-regulation jointly predicted decreases in school engagement which in turn predicted first grade academic competence. Findings illustrate the importance of considering transactions between self-regulation, teacher-child relationship quality, and school engagement in predicting academic competence. PMID:24916608

Problems with the application of hydrogeological science to regulation of Australian mining projects: Carmichael Mine and Doongmabulla Springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currell, Matthew J.; Werner, Adrian D.; McGrath, Chris; Webb, John A.; Berkman, Michael

2017-05-01

Understanding and managing impacts from mining on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) and other groundwater users requires development of defensible science supported by adequate field data. This usually leads to the creation of predictive models and analysis of the likely impacts of mining and their accompanying uncertainties. The identification, monitoring and management of impacts on GDEs are often a key component of mine approvals, which need to consider and attempt to minimise the risks that negative impacts may arise. Here we examine a case study where approval for a large mining project in Australia (Carmichael Coal Mine) was challenged in court on the basis that it may result in more extensive impacts on a GDE (Doongmabulla Springs) of high ecological and cultural significance than predicted by the proponent. We show that throughout the environmental assessment and approval process, significant data gaps and scientific uncertainties remained unresolved. Evidence shows that the assumed conceptual hydrogeological model for the springs could be incorrect, and that at least one alternative conceptualisation (that the springs are dependent on a deep fault) is consistent with the available field data. Assumptions made about changes to spring flow as a consequence of mine-induced drawdown also appear problematic, with significant implications for the spring-fed wetlands. Despite the large scale of the project, it appears that critical scientific data required to resolve uncertainties and construct robust models of the springs' relationship to the groundwater system were lacking at the time of approval, contributing to uncertainty and conflict. For this reason, we recommend changes to the approval process that would require a higher standard of scientific information to be collected and reviewed, particularly in relation to key environmental assets during the environmental impact assessment process in future projects.

Are running speeds maximized with simple-spring stance mechanics?

PubMed

Clark, Kenneth P; Weyand, Peter G

2014-09-15

Are the fastest running speeds achieved using the simple-spring stance mechanics predicted by the classic spring-mass model? We hypothesized that a passive, linear-spring model would not account for the running mechanics that maximize ground force application and speed. We tested this hypothesis by comparing patterns of ground force application across athletic specialization (competitive sprinters vs. athlete nonsprinters, n = 7 each) and running speed (top speeds vs. slower ones). Vertical ground reaction forces at 5.0 and 7.0 m/s, and individual top speeds (n = 797 total footfalls) were acquired while subjects ran on a custom, high-speed force treadmill. The goodness of fit between measured vertical force vs. time waveform patterns and the patterns predicted by the spring-mass model were assessed using the R(2) statistic (where an R(2) of 1.00 = perfect fit). As hypothesized, the force application patterns of the competitive sprinters deviated significantly more from the simple-spring pattern than those of the athlete, nonsprinters across the three test speeds (R(2) <0.85 vs. R(2) ≥ 0.91, respectively), and deviated most at top speed (R(2) = 0.78 ± 0.02). Sprinters attained faster top speeds than nonsprinters (10.4 ± 0.3 vs. 8.7 ± 0.3 m/s) by applying greater vertical forces during the first half (2.65 ± 0.05 vs. 2.21 ± 0.05 body wt), but not the second half (1.71 ± 0.04 vs. 1.73 ± 0.04 body wt) of the stance phase. We conclude that a passive, simple-spring model has limited application to sprint running performance because the swiftest runners use an asymmetrical pattern of force application to maximize ground reaction forces and attain faster speeds. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Ottlé, Catherine; Peng, Shushi; Janssens, Ivan A; Lin, Xin; Poulter, Benjamin; Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe

2014-05-01

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Arctic energy budget in relation to sea-ice variability on monthly to annual time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The strong decrease in Arctic sea-ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea-ice predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Hence, it is key to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. The authors report on an analysis of natural variability of Arctic sea-ice from an energy budget perspective, using 15 CMIP5 climate models, and comparing these results to atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses data. We quantify the persistence of sea ice anomalies and the cross-correlation with the surface and top energy budget components. The Arctic energy balance components primarily indicate the important role of the seasonal sea-ice albedo feedback, in which sea-ice anomalies in the melt season reemerge in the growth season. This is a robust anomaly reemergence mechanism among all 15 climate models. The role of ocean lies mainly in storing heat content anomalies in spring, and releasing them in autumn. Ocean heat flux variations only play a minor role. The role of clouds is further investigated. We demonstrate that there is no direct atmospheric response of clouds to spring sea-ice anomalies, but a delayed response is evident in autumn. Hence, there is no cloud-ice feedback in late spring and summer, but there is a cloud-ice feedback in autumn, which strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. Anomalies in insolation are positively correlated with sea-ice variability. This is primarily a result of reduced multiple-reflection of insolation due to an albedo decrease. This effect counteracts the sea-ice albedo effect up to 50%. ERA-Interim and ORAS4 confirm the main findings from the climate models.

Entropy Generation/Availability Energy Loss Analysis Inside MIT Gas Spring and "Two Space" Test Rigs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebiana, Asuquo B.; Savadekar, Rupesh T.; Patel, Kaushal V.

2006-01-01

The results of the entropy generation and availability energy loss analysis under conditions of oscillating pressure and oscillating helium gas flow in two Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) test rigs piston-cylinder and piston-cylinder-heat exchanger are presented. Two solution domains, the gas spring (single-space) in the piston-cylinder test rig and the gas spring + heat exchanger (two-space) in the piston-cylinder-heat exchanger test rig are of interest. Sage and CFD-ACE+ commercial numerical codes are used to obtain 1-D and 2-D computer models, respectively, of each of the two solution domains and to simulate the oscillating gas flow and heat transfer effects in these domains. Second law analysis is used to characterize the entropy generation and availability energy losses inside the two solution domains. Internal and external entropy generation and availability energy loss results predicted by Sage and CFD-ACE+ are compared. Thermodynamic loss analysis of simple systems such as the MIT test rigs are often useful to understand some important features of complex pattern forming processes in more complex systems like the Stirling engine. This study is aimed at improving numerical codes for the prediction of thermodynamic losses via the development of a loss post-processor. The incorporation of loss post-processors in Stirling engine numerical codes will facilitate Stirling engine performance optimization. Loss analysis using entropy-generation rates due to heat and fluid flow is a relatively new technique for assessing component performance. It offers a deep insight into the flow phenomena, allows a more exact calculation of losses than is possible with traditional means involving the application of loss correlations and provides an effective tool for improving component and overall system performance.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John E.

2014-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The “Null Space Monte Carlo” method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model’s capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial/temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in East-central Florida.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John

2015-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan Aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The "Null Space Monte Carlo" method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model's capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial or temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Spectral characteristics of mid-latitude continental convection from a global variable-resolution Voronoi-mesh atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, M.; Skamarock, W. C.

2015-12-01

Global numerical weather forecast tests were performed using the global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), for the NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment (May 2015) and the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign (June to mid-July 2015). These two sets of forecasts were performed on 50-to-3 km and 15-to-3 km smoothly-varying horizontal meshes, respectively. Both variable-resolution meshes have nominal convection-permitting 3-km grid spacing over the entire continental US. Here we evaluate the limited-area (vs. global) spectra from these NWP simulations. We will show the simulated spectral characteristics of total kinetic energy, vertical velocity variance, and precipitation during these spring and summer periods when diurnal continental convection is most active over central US. Spectral characteristics of a high-resolution global 3-km simulation (essentially no nesting) from the 20 May 2013 Moore, OK tornado case are also shown. These characteristics include spectral scaling, shape, and anisotropy, as well as the effective resolution of continental convection representation in MPAS.

77 FR 71013 - Proposed Low-Effect Habitat Conservation Plan for the Spring Mountain Raceway Expansion Project...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-28

...-FXES11130800000-134] Proposed Low-Effect Habitat Conservation Plan for the Spring Mountain Raceway Expansion... (Service), have received an application from Spring Mountain Raceway, LLC (applicant), for an incidental... to the Low-Effect Habitat Conservation Plan for the Spring Mountain Raceway Expansion Project...

A study on the predictability of the transition day from the dry to the rainy season over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang-Min; Nam, Ji-Eun; Choi, Hee-Wook; Ha, Jong-Chul; Lee, Yong Hee; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Cho, ChunHo

2016-08-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the prediction accuracies of THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data at six operational forecast centers using the root-mean square difference (RMSD) and Brier score (BS) from April to July 2012. And it was performed to test the precipitation predictability of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) on the onset of the summer rainy season, the day of withdrawal in spring drought over South Korea on 29 June 2012 with use of the ensemble mean precipitation, ensemble probability precipitation, 10-day lag ensemble forecasts (ensemble mean and probability precipitation), and effective drought index (EDI). The RMSD analysis of atmospheric variables (geopotential-height at 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa, sea-level pressure and specific humidity at 850 hPa) showed that the prediction accuracies of the EPS at the Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) were poor and those at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were good. Also, ECMWF and KMA showed better results than other EPSs for predicting precipitation in the BS distributions. It is also evaluated that the onset of the summer rainy season could be predicted using ensemble-mean precipitation from 4-day leading time at all forecast centers. In addition, the spatial distributions of predicted precipitation of the EPS at KMA and the Met Office of the United Kingdom (UKMO) were similar to those of observed precipitation; thus, the predictability showed good performance. The precipitation probability forecasts of EPS at CMA, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and UKMO (ECMWF and KMA) at 1-day lead time produced over-forecasting (under-forecasting) in the reliability diagram. And all the ones at 2˜4-day lead time showed under-forecasting. Also, the precipitation on onset day of the summer rainy season could be predicted from a 4-day lead time to initial time by using the 10-day lag ensemble mean and probability forecasts. Additionally, the predictability for withdrawal day of spring drought to be ended due to precipitation on onset day of summer rainy season was evaluated using Effective Drought Index (EDI) to be calculated by ensemble mean precipitation forecasts and spreads at five EPSs.

Calculation of total free energy yield as an alternative approach for predicting the importance of potential chemolithotrophic reactions in geothermal springs.

PubMed

Dodsworth, Jeremy A; McDonald, Austin I; Hedlund, Brian P

2012-08-01

To inform hypotheses regarding the relative importance of chemolithotrophic metabolisms in geothermal environments, we calculated free energy yields of 26 chemical reactions potentially supporting chemolithotrophy in two US Great Basin hot springs, taking into account the effects of changing reactant and product activities on the Gibbs free energy as each reaction progressed. Results ranged from 1.2 × 10(-5) to 3.6 J kg(-1) spring water, or 3.7 × 10(-5) to 11.5 J s(-1) based on measured flow rates, with aerobic oxidation of CH(4) or NH4 + giving the highest average yields. Energy yields calculated without constraining pH were similar to those at constant pH except for reactions where H(+) was consumed, which often had significantly lower yields when pH was unconstrained. In contrast to the commonly used normalization of reaction chemical affinities per mole of electrons transferred, reaction energy yields for a given oxidant varied by several orders of magnitude and were more sensitive to differences in the activities of products and reactants. The high energy yield of aerobic ammonia oxidation is consistent with previous observations of significant ammonia oxidation rates and abundant ammonia-oxidizing archaea in sediments of these springs. This approach offers an additional lens through which to view the thermodynamic landscape of geothermal springs. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of winter temperatures on gypsy moth egg masses in the Great Lakes region of the United States.

Treesearch

J.A. Andresen; D.G. McCullough; B.E. Potter; C.N. Koller; L.S. Bauer; C. W. Ramm

2001-01-01

Accurate prediction of winter survival of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) eggs and phenology of egg hatch in spring are strongly dependent on temperature and are critical aspects of gypsy moth management programs. We monitored internal temperatures of egg masses at three heights aboveground level and at the four cardinal aspects on oak tree stems at two different...

The ecology and diversity of microbial eukaryotes in geothermal springs.

PubMed

Oliverio, Angela M; Power, Jean F; Washburne, Alex; Cary, S Craig; Stott, Matthew B; Fierer, Noah

2018-04-16

Decades of research into the Bacteria and Archaea living in geothermal spring ecosystems have yielded great insight into the diversity of life and organismal adaptations to extreme environmental conditions. Surprisingly, while microbial eukaryotes (protists) are also ubiquitous in many environments, their diversity across geothermal springs has mostly been ignored. We used high-throughput sequencing to illuminate the diversity and structure of microbial eukaryotic communities found in 160 geothermal springs with broad ranges in temperature and pH across the Taupō Volcanic Zone in New Zealand. Protistan communities were moderately predictable in composition and varied most strongly across gradients in pH and temperature. Moreover, this variation mirrored patterns observed for bacterial and archaeal communities across the same spring samples, highlighting that there are similar ecological constraints across the tree of life. While extreme pH values were associated with declining protist diversity, high temperature springs harbored substantial amounts of protist diversity. Although protists are often overlooked in geothermal springs and other extreme environments, our results indicate that such environments can host distinct and diverse protistan communities.

NiTi Alloy Negator Springs for Long-Stroke Constant-Force Shape Memory Actuators: Modeling, Simulation and Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaggiari, Andrea; Dragoni, Eugenio; Tuissi, Ausonio

2014-07-01

This work aims at the experimental characterization and modeling validation of shape memory alloy (SMA) Negator springs. According to the classic engineering books on springs, a Negator spring is a spiral spring made of strip of metal wound on the flat with an inherent curvature such that, in repose, each coil wraps tightly on its inner neighbor. The main feature of a Negator springs is the nearly constant force displacement behavior in the unwinding of the strip. Moreover the stroke is very long, theoretically infinite, as it depends only on the length of the initial strip. A Negator spring made in SMA is built and experimentally tested to demonstrate the feasibility of this actuator. The shape memory Negator spring behavior can be modeled with an analytical procedure, which is in good agreement with the experimental test and can be used for design purposes. In both cases, the material is modeled as elastic in austenitic range, while an exponential continuum law is used to describe the martensitic behavior. The experimental results confirms the applicability of this kind of geometry to the shape memory alloy actuators, and the analytical model is confirmed to be a powerful design tool to dimension and predict the spring behavior both in martensitic and austenitic range.

Hydrology of the coastal springs ground-water basin and adjacent parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knochenmus, Lari A.; Yobbi, Dann K.

2001-01-01

The coastal springs in Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida consist of three first-order magnitude springs and numerous smaller springs, which are points of substantial ground-water discharge from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Spring flow is proportional to the water-level altitude in the aquifer and is affected primarily by the magnitude and timing of rainfall. Ground-water levels in 206 Upper Floridan aquifer wells, and surface-water stage, flow, and specific conductance of water from springs at 10 gaging stations were measured to define the hydrologic variability (temporally and spatially) in the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin and adjacent parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties. Rainfall at 46 stations and ground-water withdrawals for three counties, were used to calculate water budgets, to evaluate long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and to evaluate relations among the hydrologic components. Predictive equations to estimate daily spring flow were developed for eight gaging stations using regression techniques. Regression techniques included ordinary least squares and multiple linear regression techniques. The predictive equations indicate that ground-water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer are directly related to spring flow. At tidally affected gaging stations, spring flow is inversely related to spring-pool altitude. The springs have similar seasonal flow patterns throughout the area. Water-budget analysis provided insight into the relative importance of the hydrologic components expected to influence spring flow. Four water budgets were constructed for small ground-water basins that form the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin. Rainfall averaged 55 inches per year and was the only source of inflow to the Basin. The pathways for outflow were evapotranspiration (34 inches per year), runoff by spring flow (8 inches per year), ground-water outflow from upward leakage (11 inches per year), and ground-water withdrawal (2 inches per year). Recharge (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) to the Upper Floridan aquifer consists of vertical leakage through the surficial deposits. Discharge is primarily through springs and diffuse upward leakage that maintains the extensive swamps along the Gulf of Mexico. The ground-water basins had slightly different partitioning of hydrologic components, reflecting variation among the regions. Trends in hydrologic data were identified using nonparametric statistical techniques to infer long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and yielded mixed results. No trend in rainfall was detected during the past century. No trend in spring flow was detected in 1931-98. Although monotonic trends were not detected, rainfall patterns are naturally variable from month to month and year to year; this variability is reflected in ground-water levels and spring flows. A decreasing trend in ground-water levels was detected in the Weeki Wachee well (1966-98), but the trend was statistically weak. At current ground-water withdrawal rates, there is no discernible affect on ground-water levels and spring flows. Sporadic data records, lack of continuous data, and inconsistent periods of record among the hydrologic components impeded analysis of long-term changes to the hydrologic system and interrelations among components. The ongoing collection of hydrologic data from index sites could provide much needed information to assess the hydrologic factors affecting the quantity and quality of spring flow in the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin.

Mapping monomeric threading to protein-protein structure prediction.

PubMed

Guerler, Aysam; Govindarajoo, Brandon; Zhang, Yang

2013-03-25

The key step of template-based protein-protein structure prediction is the recognition of complexes from experimental structure libraries that have similar quaternary fold. Maintaining two monomer and dimer structure libraries is however laborious, and inappropriate library construction can degrade template recognition coverage. We propose a novel strategy SPRING to identify complexes by mapping monomeric threading alignments to protein-protein interactions based on the original oligomer entries in the PDB, which does not rely on library construction and increases the efficiency and quality of complex template recognitions. SPRING is tested on 1838 nonhomologous protein complexes which can recognize correct quaternary template structures with a TM score >0.5 in 1115 cases after excluding homologous proteins. The average TM score of the first model is 60% and 17% higher than that by HHsearch and COTH, respectively, while the number of targets with an interface RMSD <2.5 Å by SPRING is 134% and 167% higher than these competing methods. SPRING is controlled with ZDOCK on 77 docking benchmark proteins. Although the relative performance of SPRING and ZDOCK depends on the level of homology filters, a combination of the two methods can result in a significantly higher model quality than ZDOCK at all homology thresholds. These data demonstrate a new efficient approach to quaternary structure recognition that is ready to use for genome-scale modeling of protein-protein interactions due to the high speed and accuracy.

Potential Influence of Arctic Sea Ice to the Inter-annual Variations of East Asian Spring Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhiwei; Li, Yanjie

2016-04-01

Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly on how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and has significant influences to agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results manifest that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variances of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream tele-connections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over Mongolian Plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Single-Cell-Genomics-Facilitated Read Binning of Candidate Phylum EM19 Genomes from Geothermal Spring Metagenomes

PubMed Central

Becraft, Eric D.; Dodsworth, Jeremy A.; Murugapiran, Senthil K.; Ohlsson, J. Ingemar; Briggs, Brandon R.; Kanbar, Jad; De Vlaminck, Iwijn; Quake, Stephen R.; Dong, Hailiang; Hedlund, Brian P.

2015-01-01

The vast majority of microbial life remains uncatalogued due to the inability to cultivate these organisms in the laboratory. This “microbial dark matter” represents a substantial portion of the tree of life and of the populations that contribute to chemical cycling in many ecosystems. In this work, we leveraged an existing single-cell genomic data set representing the candidate bacterial phylum “Calescamantes” (EM19) to calibrate machine learning algorithms and define metagenomic bins directly from pyrosequencing reads derived from Great Boiling Spring in the U.S. Great Basin. Compared to other assembly-based methods, taxonomic binning with a read-based machine learning approach yielded final assemblies with the highest predicted genome completeness of any method tested. Read-first binning subsequently was used to extract Calescamantes bins from all metagenomes with abundant Calescamantes populations, including metagenomes from Octopus Spring and Bison Pool in Yellowstone National Park and Gongxiaoshe Spring in Yunnan Province, China. Metabolic reconstruction suggests that Calescamantes are heterotrophic, facultative anaerobes, which can utilize oxidized nitrogen sources as terminal electron acceptors for respiration in the absence of oxygen and use proteins as their primary carbon source. Despite their phylogenetic divergence, the geographically separate Calescamantes populations were highly similar in their predicted metabolic capabilities and core gene content, respiring O2, or oxidized nitrogen species for energy conservation in distant but chemically similar hot springs. PMID:26637598

The prelimbic cortex directs attention toward predictive cues during fear learning.

PubMed

Sharpe, Melissa J; Killcross, Simon

2015-06-01

The prelimbic cortex is argued to promote conditioned fear expression, at odds with appetitive research implicating this region in attentional processing. Consistent with an attentional account, we report that the effect of prelimbic lesions on fear expression depends on the degree of competition between contextual and discrete cues. Further, when competition from contextual cues is low, we found that PL inactivation resulted in animals expressing fear toward irrelevant discrete cues; an effect selective to inactivation during the learning phase and not during retrieval. These data demonstrate that the prelimbic cortex modulates attention toward cues to preferentially direct fear responding on the basis of their predictive value. © 2015 Sharpe and Killcross; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Adaptive latitudinal variation in Common Blackbird Turdus merula nest characteristics

PubMed Central

Mainwaring, Mark C; Deeming, D Charles; Jones, Chris I; Hartley, Ian R

2014-01-01

Nest construction is taxonomically widespread, yet our understanding of adaptive intraspecific variation in nest design remains poor. Nest characteristics are expected to vary adaptively in response to predictable variation in spring temperatures over large spatial scales, yet such variation in nest design remains largely overlooked, particularly amongst open-cup-nesting birds. Here, we systematically examined the effects of latitudinal variation in spring temperatures and precipitation on the morphology, volume, composition, and insulatory properties of open-cup-nesting Common Blackbirds’ Turdus merula nests to test the hypothesis that birds living in cooler environments at more northerly latitudes would build better insulated nests than conspecifics living in warmer environments at more southerly latitudes. As spring temperatures increased with decreasing latitude, the external diameter of nests decreased. However, as nest wall thickness also decreased, there was no variation in the diameter of the internal nest cups. Only the mass of dry grasses within nests decreased with warmer temperatures at lower latitudes. The insulatory properties of nests declined with warmer temperatures at lower latitudes and nests containing greater amounts of dry grasses had higher insulatory properties. The insulatory properties of nests decreased with warmer temperatures at lower latitudes, via changes in morphology (wall thickness) and composition (dry grasses). Meanwhile, spring precipitation did not vary with latitude, and none of the nest characteristics varied with spring precipitation. This suggests that Common Blackbirds nesting at higher latitudes were building nests with thicker walls in order to counteract the cooler temperatures. We have provided evidence that the nest construction behavior of open-cup-nesting birds systematically varies in response to large-scale spatial variation in spring temperatures. PMID:24683466

Adaptive latitudinal variation in Common Blackbird Turdus merula nest characteristics.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Deeming, D Charles; Jones, Chris I; Hartley, Ian R

2014-03-01

Nest construction is taxonomically widespread, yet our understanding of adaptive intraspecific variation in nest design remains poor. Nest characteristics are expected to vary adaptively in response to predictable variation in spring temperatures over large spatial scales, yet such variation in nest design remains largely overlooked, particularly amongst open-cup-nesting birds. Here, we systematically examined the effects of latitudinal variation in spring temperatures and precipitation on the morphology, volume, composition, and insulatory properties of open-cup-nesting Common Blackbirds' Turdus merula nests to test the hypothesis that birds living in cooler environments at more northerly latitudes would build better insulated nests than conspecifics living in warmer environments at more southerly latitudes. As spring temperatures increased with decreasing latitude, the external diameter of nests decreased. However, as nest wall thickness also decreased, there was no variation in the diameter of the internal nest cups. Only the mass of dry grasses within nests decreased with warmer temperatures at lower latitudes. The insulatory properties of nests declined with warmer temperatures at lower latitudes and nests containing greater amounts of dry grasses had higher insulatory properties. The insulatory properties of nests decreased with warmer temperatures at lower latitudes, via changes in morphology (wall thickness) and composition (dry grasses). Meanwhile, spring precipitation did not vary with latitude, and none of the nest characteristics varied with spring precipitation. This suggests that Common Blackbirds nesting at higher latitudes were building nests with thicker walls in order to counteract the cooler temperatures. We have provided evidence that the nest construction behavior of open-cup-nesting birds systematically varies in response to large-scale spatial variation in spring temperatures.

Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.

PubMed

Clare, Frances C; Halder, Julia B; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S; Cunningham, Andrew A; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Garner, Trenton W J; Bosch, Jaime; Fisher, Matthew C

2016-12-05

Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

Integrating urban recharge uncertainty into standard groundwater modeling practice: A case study on water main break predictions for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer, Austin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinner, K.; Teasley, R. L.

2016-12-01

Groundwater models serve as integral tools for understanding flow processes and informing stakeholders and policy makers in management decisions. Historically, these models tended towards a deterministic nature, relying on historical data to predict and inform future decisions based on model outputs. This research works towards developing a stochastic method of modeling recharge inputs from pipe main break predictions in an existing groundwater model, which subsequently generates desired outputs incorporating future uncertainty rather than deterministic data. The case study for this research is the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer near Austin, Texas. Researchers and water resource professionals have modeled the Edwards Aquifer for decades due to its high water quality, fragile ecosystem, and stakeholder interest. The original case study and model that this research is built upon was developed as a co-design problem with regional stakeholders and the model outcomes are generated specifically for communication with policy makers and managers. Recently, research in the Barton Springs segment demonstrated a significant contribution of urban, or anthropogenic, recharge to the aquifer, particularly during dry period, using deterministic data sets. Due to social and ecological importance of urban water loss to recharge, this study develops an evaluation method to help predicted pipe breaks and their related recharge contribution within the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. To benefit groundwater management decision processes, the performance measures captured in the model results, such as springflow, head levels, storage, and others, were determined by previous work in elicitation of problem framing to determine stakeholder interests and concerns. The results of the previous deterministic model and the stochastic model are compared to determine gains to stakeholder knowledge through the additional modeling

Discrete Spring Model for Predicting Delamination Growth in Z-Fiber Reinforced DCB Specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratcliffe, James G.; OBrien, T. Kevin

2004-01-01

Beam theory analysis was applied to predict delamination growth in Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) specimens reinforced in the thickness direction with pultruded pins, known as Z-fibers. The specimen arms were modeled as cantilever beams supported by discrete springs, which were included to represent the pins. A bi-linear, irreversible damage law was used to represent Z-fiber damage, the parameters of which were obtained from previous experiments. Closed-form solutions were developed for specimen compliance and displacements corresponding to Z-fiber row locations. A solution strategy was formulated to predict delamination growth, in which the parent laminate mode I critical strain energy release rate was used as the criterion for delamination growth. The solution procedure was coded into FORTRAN 90, giving a dedicated software tool for performing the delamination prediction. Comparison of analysis results with previous analysis and experiment showed good agreement, yielding an initial verification for the analytical procedure.

Discrete Spring Model for Predicting Delamination Growth in Z-Fiber Reinforced DCB Specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratcliffe, James G.; O'Brien, T. Kevin

2004-01-01

Beam theory analysis was applied to predict delamination growth in DCB specimens reinforced in the thickness direction with pultruded pins, known as Z-fibers. The specimen arms were modeled as cantilever beams supported by discrete springs, which were included to represent the pins. A bi-linear, irreversible damage law was used to represent Z-fiber damage, the parameters of which were obtained from previous experiments. Closed-form solutions were developed for specimen compliance and displacements corresponding to Z-fiber row locations. A solution strategy was formulated to predict delamination growth, in which the parent laminate mode I fracture toughness was used as the criterion for delamination growth. The solution procedure was coded into FORTRAN 90, giving a dedicated software tool for performing the delamination prediction. Comparison of analysis results with previous analysis and experiment showed good agreement, yielding an initial verification for the analytical procedure.

Dynamic Vulnerability of Karst Systems: a Concept to understand qualitative and quantitative Aspects of Karst springs due to Changes in Groundwater Recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggenberger, P.; Butscher, C.; Epting, J.; Auckenthaler, A.

2015-12-01

Karst groundwater resources represent valuable water resources, which may be affected by different types of pollution and changes of groundwater recharge by climate change. In many parts of Europe, it has been predicted that record-breaking heat waves, such as the one experienced in 2003 and 2015, will become more frequent. At the same time, even as summers become drier, the incidence of severe precipitation events could increase. What is the influence such changes to the quantitative and qualitative aspects of Karst groundwater systems? A factor to be considered in conjunction with groundwater quality is the vulnerability of the resource, which is defined as the sensitivity of a groundwater system to pollution. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to the sensitivity to pollution when considering only natural, geogenic conditions without the effects of human activities such as contaminant release. Intrinsic vulnerability depends on the recharge conditions, which are dependent on the surface and subsurface structure and on precipitation and evaporation patterns. The latter are highly time dependent. Therefore, our groundwater vulnerability concept also includes dynamic aspects of the system, the variations of spatial and temporal components. We present results of combined monitoring and modelling experiments of several types of Karst systems in the Tabular and the Folded Jura of NW Switzerland. The recharge, conduit flow, diffuse flow(RCD) rainfall-discharge model "RCD-seasonal" was used to simulate the discharge and substance concentration of several spring. This lumped parameter model include: the recharge system (soil and epikarst system), the conduit flow system, and the diffuse flow system. The numerically derived Dynamic Vulnerability Index (DVI) can indicate qualitative changes of spring water with sufficient accuracy to be used for drinking water management. In addition, the results obtained from the test sites indicate a decrease in short-lived contaminants in spring water as a result of climate change. The impact of persistent contaminants, however, can only be determined if future climatic conditions at the site can be estimated with sufficient accuracy, because predicted summer heat waves and severe rainfall events will have opposite effects on the groundwater vulnerability.

Metagenomic identification of active methanogens and methanotrophs in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy.

PubMed

Brazelton, William J; Thornton, Christopher N; Hyer, Alex; Twing, Katrina I; Longino, August A; Lang, Susan Q; Lilley, Marvin D; Früh-Green, Gretchen L; Schrenk, Matthew O

2017-01-01

The production of hydrogen and methane by geochemical reactions associated with the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks can potentially support subsurface microbial ecosystems independent of the photosynthetic biosphere. Methanogenic and methanotrophic microorganisms are abundant in marine hydrothermal systems heavily influenced by serpentinization, but evidence for methane-cycling archaea and bacteria in continental serpentinite springs has been limited. This report provides metagenomic and experimental evidence for active methanogenesis and methanotrophy by microbial communities in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy. Methanogens belonging to family Methanobacteriaceae and methanotrophic bacteria belonging to family Methylococcaceae were heavily enriched in three ultrabasic springs (pH 12). Metagenomic data also suggest the potential for hydrogen oxidation, hydrogen production, carbon fixation, fermentation, and organic acid metabolism in the ultrabasic springs. The predicted metabolic capabilities are consistent with an active subsurface ecosystem supported by energy and carbon liberated by geochemical reactions within the serpentinite rocks of the Voltri Massif.

[Variation of satellite-based spring vegetation phenology and the relationship with climate in the Northern Hemisphere over 1982 to 2009.

PubMed

Cong, Nan; Shen, Miao Gen

2016-09-01

In-depth understanding the variation of vegetation spring phenology is important and nece-ssary for estimation and prediction of ecosystem response to climate change. Satellite-based estimation is one of the important methods for detecting the vegetation spring phenology in Northern Hemisphere. However, there are still many uncertainties among different remote sensing models. In this study, we employed NDVI satellite product from 1982 to 2009 to estimate vegetation green-up onset dates in spring across Northern Hemisphere, and further analyzed the phenology spatio-temporal variation and the relationship with climate. Results showed that spatial mean spring phenology significantly advanced by (4.0±0.8) days during this period in the Northern Hemisphere, while spring phenology advanced much faster in Eurasia (0.22±0.04 d·a -1 ) than in North America (0.03±0.02 d·a -1 ). Moreover, phenology of different vegetation types changed inconstantly during the period. All five methods consistently indicated that grassland significantly advanced, while forests didn't advance robustly among methods. In addition, the interannual change of spring phenology was mainly driven by spring temperature. The spring phenology advanced (3.2±0.5) days with 1 ℃ increase in temperature. On the contrary, we did not find significant relationship between vegetation spring phenology and spring accumulative precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere (P>0.05) in this study.

Has climatic warming altered spring flowering date of Sonoran Desert shrubs?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

2007-01-01

With global warming, flowering at many locations has shifted toward earlier dates of bloom. A steady increase in average annual temperature since the late 1890s makes it likely that flowering also has advanced in the northern Sonoran Desert of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In this study, phenological models were used to predict annual date of spring bloom in the northern Sonoran Desert from 1894 to 2004; then, herbarium specimens were assessed for objective evidence of the predicted shift in flowering time. The phenological models were derived from known flowering requirements (triggers and heat sums) of Sonoran Desert shrubs. According to the models, flowering might have advanced by 20-41 d from 1894 to 2004. Analysis of herbarium specimens collected during the 20th century supported the model predictions. Over time, there was a significant increase in the proportion of shrub specimens collected in flower in March and a significant decrease in the proportion collected in May. Thus, the flowering curve - the proportion of individuals in flower in each spring month - shifted toward the start of the calendar year between 1900 and 1999. This shift could not be explained by collection activity: collectors showed no tendency to be active earlier in the year as time went on, nor did activity toward the end of spring decline in recent decades. Earlier bloom eventually could have substantial impacts on plant and animal communities in the Sonoran Desert, especially on migratory hummingbirds and population dynamics of shrubs.

High temperature annealing of fission tracks in fluorapatite, Santa Fe Springs oil field, Los Angeles Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naeser, Nancy D.; Crowley, Kevin D.; McCulloh, Thane H.; Reaves, Chris M.; ,

1990-01-01

Annealing of fission tracks is a kinetic process dependent primarily on temperature and to a laser extent on time. Several kinetic models of apatite annealing have been proposed. The predictive capabilities of these models for long-term geologic annealing have been limited to qualitative or semiquantitative at best, because of uncertainties associated with (1) the extrapolation of laboratory observations to geologic conditions, (2) the thermal histories of field samples, and (3) to some extent, the effect of apatite composition on reported annealing temperatures. Thermal history in the Santa Fe Springs oil field, Los Angeles Basin, California, is constrained by an exceptionally well known burial history and present-day temperature gradient. Sediment burial histories are continuous and tightly constrained from about 9 Ma to present, with an important tie at 3.4 Ma. No surface erosion and virtually no uplift were recorded during or since deposition of these sediments, so the burial history is simple and uniquely defined. Temperature gradient (???40??C km-1) is well established from oil-field operations. Fission-track data from the Santa Fe Springs area should thus provide one critical field test of kinetic annealing models for apatite. Fission-track analysis has been performed on apatites from sandstones of Pliocene to Miocene age from a deep drill hole at Santa Fe Springs. Apatite composition, determined by electron microprobe, is fluorapatite [average composition (F1.78Cl0.01OH0.21)] with very low chlorine content [less than Durango apatite; sample means range from 0.0 to 0.04 Cl atoms, calculated on the basis of 26(O, F, Cl, OH)], suggesting that the apatite is not unusually resistant to annealing. Fission tracks are preserved in these apatites at exceptionally high present-day temperatures. Track loss is not complete until temperatures reach the extreme of 167-178??C (at 3795-4090 m depth). The temperature-time annealing relationships indicated by the new data from Santa Fe Springs conflict with predictions based on previously published, commonly used, kinetic annealing models for apatite. Work is proceeding on samples from another area of the basin that may resolve this discrepancy.

Quantifying groundwater discharge through fringing wetlands to estuaries: Seasonal variability, methods comparison, and implications for wetland-estuary exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tobias, C.R.; Harvey, J.W.; Anderson, I.C.

2001-01-01

Because groundwater discharge along coastal shorelines is often concentrated in zones inhabited by fringing wetlands, accurately estimating discharge is essential for understanding its effect on the function and maintenance of these ecosystems. Most previous estimates of groundwater discharge to coastal wetlands have been temporally limited and have used only a single approach to estimate discharge. Furthermore, groundwater input has not been considered as a major mechanism controlling pore-water flushing. We estimated seasonally varying groundwater discharge into a fringing estuarine wetland using three independent methods (Darcy's Law, salt balance, and Br- tracer). Seasonal patterns of discharge predicted by both Darcy's Law and the salt balance yielded similar seasonal patterns with discharge maxima and minima in spring and early fall, respectively. They differed, however, in the estimated magnitude of discharge by two- to fourfold in spring and by 10-fold in fall. Darcy estimates of mean discharge ranged between -8.0 and 80 L m-2 d-1, whereas the salt balance predicted groundwater discharge of 0.6 to 22 L m-2 d-1. Results from the Br- tracer experiment estimated discharge at 16 L m-2 d-t, or nearly equal to the salt balance estimate at that time. Based upon the tracer test, pore-water conductivity profiles, and error estimates for the Darcy and salt balance approaches, we concluded that the salt balance provided a more certain estimate of groundwater discharge at high flow (spring). In contrast, the Darcy method provided a more reliable estimate during low flow (fall). Groundwater flushing of pore water in the spring exported solutes to the estuary at rates similar to tidally driven surface exchange seen in previous studies. Based on pore-water turnover times, the groundwater-driven flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and NH4+ to the estuary was 11.9, 1.6, and 1.3 g C or g N m-2 wetland for the 90 d encompassing peak spring discharge. Groundwater-induced flushing of the wetland subsurface therefore represents an important mechanism by which narrow fringing marshes may seasonally relieve salt stress and export material to adjacent water masses.

The effect of steam sterilization on the accuracy of spring-style mechanical torque devices for dental implants

PubMed Central

Mahshid, Minoo; Saboury, Aboulfazl; Fayaz, Ali; Sadr, Seyed Jalil; Lampert, Friedrich; Mir, Maziar

2012-01-01

Background Mechanical torque devices (MTDs) are one of the most commonly recommended devices used to deliver optimal torque to the screw of dental implants. Recently, high variability has been reported about the accuracy of spring-style mechanical torque devices (S-S MTDs). Joint stability and survival rate of fixed implant supported prosthesis depends on the accuracy of these devices. Currently, there is limited information on the steam sterilization influence on the accuracy of MTDs. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of steam sterilization on the accuracy (±10% of the target torque) of spring-style mechanical torque devices for dental implants. Materials and methods Fifteen new S-S MTDs and their appropriate drivers from three different manufacturers (Nobel Biocare, Straumann [ITI], and Biomet 3i [3i]) were selected. Peak torque of devices (5 in each subgroup) was measured before and after autoclaving using a Tohnichi torque gauge. Descriptive statistical analysis was used and a repeated-measures ANOVA with type of device as a between-subject comparison was performed to assess the difference in accuracy among the three groups of spring-style mechanical torque devices after sterilization. A Bonferroni post hoc test was used to assess pairwise comparisons. Results Before steam sterilization, all the tested devices stayed within 10% of their target values. After 100 sterilization cycles, results didn’t show any significant difference between raw and absolute error values in the Nobel Biocare and ITI devices; however the results demonstrated an increase of error values in the 3i group (P < 0.05). Raw error values increased with a predictable pattern in 3i devices and showed more than a 10% difference from target torque values (maximum difference of 14% from target torque was seen in 17% of peak torque measurements). Conclusion Within the limitation of this study, steam sterilization did not affect the accuracy (±10% of the target torque) of the Nobel Biocare and ITI MTDs. Raw error values increased with a predictable pattern in 3i devices and showed more than 10% difference from target torque values. Before expanding upon the clinical implications, the controlled and combined effect of aging (frequency of use) and steam sterilization needs more investigation. PMID:23674923

Simulated limnological effects of the Shasta Lake temperature control device

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, J.; Hanna, R.B.; Saito, L.; Lieberman, D.; Horn, M.

2001-01-01

We estimated the effects of a temperature control device (TCD) on a suite of thermodynamic and limnological attributes for a large storage reservoir, Shasta Lake, in northern California. Shasta Dam was constructed in 1945 with a fixed-elevation penstock. The TCD was installed in 1997 to improve downstream temperatures for endangered salmonids by releasing epilimnetic waters in the winter/spring and hypolimnetic waters in the summer/fall. We calibrated a two-dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2, and applied a structured design-of-experiment simulation procedure to predict the principal limnological effects of the TCD under a variety of environmental scenarios. Calibration goodness-of-fit ranged from good to poor depending on the constituent simulated, with an R2 of 0.9 for water temperature but 0.3 for phytoplankton. Although the chemical and thermal characteristics of the discharge changed markedly, the reservoir's characteristics remained relatively unchanged. Simulations showed the TCD causing an earlier onset and shorter duration of summer stratification, but no dramatic affect on Shasta's nutrient composition. Peak in-reservoir phytoplankton production may begin earlier and be stronger in the fall with the TCD, while outfall phytoplankton concentrations may be much greater in the spring. Many model predictions differed from our a priori expectations that had been shaped by an intensive, but limited-duration, data collection effort. Hydrologic and meteorological variables, most notably reservoir carryover storage at the beginning of the calendar year, influenced model predictions much more strongly than the TCD. Model results indicate that greater control over reservoir limnology and release quality may be gained by carefully managing reservoir volume through the year than with the TCD alone.

A Modified Johnson-Cook Model for Sheet Metal Forming at Elevated Temperatures and Its Application for Cooled Stress-Strain Curve and Spring-Back Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duc-Toan, Nguyen; Tien-Long, Banh; Young-Suk, Kim; Dong-Won, Jung

2011-08-01

In this study, a modified Johnson-Cook (J-C) model and an innovated method to determine (J-C) material parameters are proposed to predict more correctly stress-strain curve for tensile tests in elevated temperatures. A MATLAB tool is used to determine material parameters by fitting a curve to follow Ludwick's hardening law at various elevated temperatures. Those hardening law parameters are then utilized to determine modified (J-C) model material parameters. The modified (J-C) model shows the better prediction compared to the conventional one. As the first verification, an FEM tensile test simulation based on the isotropic hardening model for boron sheet steel at elevated temperatures was carried out via a user-material subroutine, using an explicit finite element code, and compared with the measurements. The temperature decrease of all elements due to the air cooling process was then calculated when considering the modified (J-C) model and coded to VUMAT subroutine for tensile test simulation of cooling process. The modified (J-C) model showed the good agreement between the simulation results and the corresponding experiments. The second investigation was applied for V-bending spring-back prediction of magnesium alloy sheets at elevated temperatures. Here, the combination of proposed J-C model with modified hardening law considering the unusual plastic behaviour for magnesium alloy sheet was adopted for FEM simulation of V-bending spring-back prediction and shown the good comparability with corresponding experiments.

How important is exact knowledge of preferential flowpath locations and orientations for understanding spatiotemporally integrated spring hydrologic and transport response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, W.; De Rooij, R.; Graham, W. D.

2016-12-01

The Upper Floridian Aquifer is hydrogeologically complex; limestone dissolution has led to vertical and horizontal preferential flow paths. Locations of karst conduits are unknown and conduit properties are poorly constrained. Uncertainty in effects of conduit location, size, and density, network geometry and connectivity on hydrologic and transport responses is not well quantified, leading to limited use of discrete-continuum models that incorporate conduit networks for regional-scale hydrologic regulatory models. However, conduit networks typically dominate flow and contaminant transport in karst aquifers. We evaluated sensitivity of simulated water and nitrate fluxes and flow paths to karst conduit geometry in a springshed representative of Silver Springs, Florida, using a novel calcite dissolution conduit-generation algorithm coupled with a discrete-continuum flow and transport model (DisCo). Monte Carlo simulations of conduit generation, groundwater flow, and conservative solute transport indicate that, if a first magnitude spring system conduit network developed (i.e., spring flow >2.8 m3/s), the uncertainty in hydraulic and solute pulse response metrics at the spring vent was minimally related to locational uncertainty of network elements. Across the ensemble of realizations for various distributions of conduits, first magnitude spring hydraulic pulse metrics (e.g., steady-flow, peak flow, and recession coefficients) had < 0.01 coefficient of variation (CV). Similarly, spring solute breakthrough curve moments had low CV (<0.08); peak arrival had CV=0.06, mean travel time had CV=0.05, and travel time standard deviation had CV=0.08. Nevertheless, hydraulic and solute pulse response metrics were significantly different than those predicted by an equivalent porous-media model. These findings indicate that regional-scale decision models that incorporate karst preferential flow paths within an uncertainty framework can be used to better constrain aquifer-vulnerability estimates, despite lacking information about actual conduit locations.

Comparison of CRD, APU, and state models for Iowa corn and soybeans and North Dakota barley and spring wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, V.

1983-01-01

A comparison was made among the CEAS crop reporting district (CRD), agrophysical unit (APU), and state level multiple regression yield models for corn and soybeans in Iowa and barley and spring wheat in North Dakota. The best predictions were made by the state model for North Dakota spring wheat, by the APU models for barley, by the CRD models for Iowa soybeans, and by APU covariance models for Iowa corn. Because of this lack of consistency of model performance, CRD models would be recommended due to the availability of the data.

Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Program Newsletter. Volume 1. Issue 1, Spring 2009

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-30

the social psychol- ogy of consumer behavior . A key theory in this space is the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), which hypothesizes the re...useful in predicting a range of consumer behavior , including the effectiveness of anti-smoking cam- paigns and weight loss programs—each of which...Priester, J.R. (2002). The social psychology of consumer behavior . Buckingham, UK: Open University Press. Ajzen, I. & Fishbein, M. (1980

On prediction of crack in different orientations in pipe using frequency based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naniwadekar, M. R.; Naik, S. S.; Maiti, S. K.

2008-04-01

A technique based on measurement of change in natural frequencies and modeling of crack by rotational spring is employed to detect a crack with straight front in different orientations in a section of straight horizontal steel hollow pipe (outer diameter 0.0378 m and inner diameter 0.0278 m). Crack orientations in the range 0-60° with the vertical have been examined and sizes/depths in the range 1-4 mm through the wall of thickness 5 mm have been studied. Variation of rotational spring stiffness with crack size and orientation has been obtained experimentally by deflection and vibration methods. The spring stiffness reduces as expected, with an increase in crack size; it increases with an increase in the crack orientation angle. The crack location has been predicted with a maximum error of 7.29%. The sensitivity of the method for prediction of crack location on variations in experimental data has been examined by changing the difference between the frequencies of pipes with and without crack by ±10%. The method is found to be very robust; the maximum variation in location is 2.68%, which is much less than the change in frequency difference introduced.

Effects of Changing Climate During the Snow Ablation Season on Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutzler, D. S.; Chavarria, S. B.

2017-12-01

Seasonal forecasts of total surface runoff (Q) in snowmelt-dominated watersheds derive most of their prediction skill from the historical relationship between late winter snowpack (SWE) and subsequent snowmelt runoff. Across the western US, however, the relationship between SWE and Q is weakening as temperatures rise. We describe the effects of climate variability and change during the springtime snow ablation season on water supply outlooks (forecasts of Q) for southwestern rivers. As snow melts earlier, the importance of post-snow rainfall increases: interannual variability of spring season precipitation accounts for an increasing fraction of the variability of Q in recent decades. The results indicate that improvements to the skill of S2S forecasts of spring season temperature and precipitation would contribute very significantly to water supply outlooks that are now based largely on observed SWE. We assess this hypothesis using historical data from several snowpack-dominated basins in the American Southwest (Rio Grande, Pecos, and Gila Rivers) which are undergoing rapid climate change.

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

PubMed

Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2018-05-01

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Solar Eclipse Effect on Shelter Air Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Turner, R. W.; Prusa, J.; Bitzer, R. J.; Finley, S. V.

1996-01-01

Decreases in shelter temperature during eclipse events were quantified on the basis of observations, numerical model simulations, and complementary conceptual evaluations. Observations for the annular eclipse on 10 May 1994 over the United States are presented, and these provide insights into the temporal and spatial changes in the shelter temperature. The observations indicated near-surface temperature drops of as much as 6 C. Numerical model simulations for this eclipse event, which provide a complementary evaluation of the spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature drops, predict similar decreases. Interrelationships between the temperature drop, degree of solar irradiance reduction, and timing of the peak eclipse are also evaluated for late spring, summer, and winter sun conditions. These simulations suggest that for total eclipses the drops in shelter temperature in midlatitudes can be as high as 7 C for a spring morning eclipse.

An experimental and analytical investigation of stall effects on flap-lag stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagabhushanam, J.; Gaonkar, Gopal H.; Mcnulty, Michael J.

1987-01-01

Experiments have been performed with a 1.62 m diameter hingeless rotor in a wind tunnel to investigate flap-lag stability of isolated rotors in forward flight. The three-bladed rotor model closely approaches the simple theoretical concept of a hingeless rotor as a set of rigid, articulated flap-lag blades with offset and spring restrained flap and lag hinges. Lag regressing mode stability data was obtained for advance ratios as high as 0.55 for various combinations of collective pitch and shaft angle. The prediction includes quasi-steady stall effects on rotor trim and Floquet stability analyses. Correlation between data and prediction is presented and is compared with that of an earlier study based on a linear theory without stall effects. While the results with stall effects show marked differences from the linear theory results, the stall theory still falls short of adequate agreement with the experimental data.

Longleaf pine cone collection on the Sabine National Forest during October 2014

Treesearch

George F. Weick; Earlene Bracy Jackson; Robert Smith; James Crooks; Barbara Crane; James M. Guldin

2017-01-01

Longleaf pine is known as an unpredictable seed producer, with adequate or better seed crops occurring once every 5 years or longer. However, in the spring before seed fall, good cone crops can be predicted by visually counting green cones in the canopy, which by then are large enough to be seen, especially when binoculars of suitable power are used. During the spring...

How early can the seeding dates of spring wheat be under current and future climate in Saskatchewan, Canada?

PubMed

He, Yong; Wang, Hong; Qian, Budong; McConkey, Brian; DePauw, Ron

2012-01-01

Shorter growing season and water stress near wheat maturity are the main factors that presumably limit the yield potential of spring wheat due to late seeding in Saskatchewan, Canada. Advancing seeding dates can be a strategy to help producers mitigate the impact of climate change on spring wheat. It is unknown, however, how early farmers can seed while minimizing the risk of spring frost damage and the soil and machinery constraints. This paper explores early seeding dates of spring wheat on the Canadian Prairies under current and projected future climate. To achieve this, (i) weather records from 1961 to 1990 were gathered at three sites with different soil and climate conditions in Saskatchewan, Canada; (ii) four climate databases that included a baseline (treated as historic weather climate during the period of 1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios (2040-2069) developed by the Canadian global climate model (GCM) with the forcing of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1); (iii) seeding dates of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under baseline and projected future climate were predicted. Compared with the historical record of seeding dates, the predicted seeding dates were advanced under baseline climate for all sites using our seeding date model. Driven by the predicted temperature increase of the scenarios compared with baseline climate, all climate change scenarios projected significantly earlier seeding dates than those currently used. Compared to the baseline conditions, there is no reduction in grain yield because precipitation increases during sensitive growth stages of wheat, suggesting that there is potential to shift seeding to an earlier date. The average advancement of seeding dates varied among sites and chosen scenarios. The Swift Current (south-west) site has the highest potential for earlier seeding (7 to 11 days) whereas such advancement was small in the Melfort (north-east, 2 to 4 days) region. The extent of projected climate change in Saskatchewan indicates that growers in this region have the potential of earlier seeding. The results obtained in this study may be used for adaptation assessments of seeding dates under possible climate change to mitigate the impact of potential warming.

Analysis of Dynamic Stiffness Effect of Primary Suspension Helical Springs on Railway Vehicle Vibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, W.; Thompson, D. J.; Zhou, J.; Gong, D.

2016-09-01

Helical springs within the primary suspension are critical components for isolating the whole vehicle system from vibration generated at the wheel/rail contact. As train speeds increase, the frequency region of excitation becomes larger, and a simplified static stiffness can no longer represent the real stiffness property in a vehicle dynamic model. Coil springs in particular exhibit strong internal resonances, which lead to high vibration amplitudes within the spring itself as well as degradation of the vibration isolation. In this paper, the dynamic stiffness matrix method is used to determine the dynamic stiffness of a helical spring from a vehicle primary suspension. Results are confirmed with a finite element analysis. Then the spring dynamic stiffness is included within a vehicle-track coupled dynamic model of a high speed train and the effect of the dynamic stiffening of the spring on the vehicle vibration is investigated. It is shown that, for frequencies above about 50 Hz, the dynamic stiffness of the helical spring changes sharply. Due to this effect, the vibration transmissibility increases considerably which results in poor vibration isolation of the primary suspension. Introducing a rubber layer in series with the coil spring can attenuate this effect.

Eye tracking a self-moved target with complex hand-target dynamics

PubMed Central

Landelle, Caroline; Montagnini, Anna; Madelain, Laurent

2016-01-01

Previous work has shown that the ability to track with the eye a moving target is substantially improved when the target is self-moved by the subject's hand compared with when being externally moved. Here, we explored a situation in which the mapping between hand movement and target motion was perturbed by simulating an elastic relationship between the hand and target. Our objective was to determine whether the predictive mechanisms driving eye-hand coordination could be updated to accommodate this complex hand-target dynamics. To fully appreciate the behavioral effects of this perturbation, we compared eye tracking performance when self-moving a target with a rigid mapping (simple) and a spring mapping as well as when the subject tracked target trajectories that he/she had previously generated when using the rigid or spring mapping. Concerning the rigid mapping, our results confirmed that smooth pursuit was more accurate when the target was self-moved than externally moved. In contrast, with the spring mapping, eye tracking had initially similar low spatial accuracy (though shorter temporal lag) in the self versus externally moved conditions. However, within ∼5 min of practice, smooth pursuit improved in the self-moved spring condition, up to a level similar to the self-moved rigid condition. Subsequently, when the mapping unexpectedly switched from spring to rigid, the eye initially followed the expected target trajectory and not the real one, thereby suggesting that subjects used an internal representation of the new hand-target dynamics. Overall, these results emphasize the stunning adaptability of smooth pursuit when self-maneuvering objects with complex dynamics. PMID:27466129

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.

PubMed

Ernakovich, Jessica G; Hopping, Kelly A; Berdanier, Aaron B; Simpson, Rodney T; Kachergis, Emily J; Steltzer, Heidi; Wallenstein, Matthew D

2014-10-01

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

2017-04-01

In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

Single-Cell-Genomics-Facilitated Read Binning of Candidate Phylum EM19 Genomes from Geothermal Spring Metagenomes.

PubMed

Becraft, Eric D; Dodsworth, Jeremy A; Murugapiran, Senthil K; Ohlsson, J Ingemar; Briggs, Brandon R; Kanbar, Jad; De Vlaminck, Iwijn; Quake, Stephen R; Dong, Hailiang; Hedlund, Brian P; Swingley, Wesley D

2016-02-15

The vast majority of microbial life remains uncatalogued due to the inability to cultivate these organisms in the laboratory. This "microbial dark matter" represents a substantial portion of the tree of life and of the populations that contribute to chemical cycling in many ecosystems. In this work, we leveraged an existing single-cell genomic data set representing the candidate bacterial phylum "Calescamantes" (EM19) to calibrate machine learning algorithms and define metagenomic bins directly from pyrosequencing reads derived from Great Boiling Spring in the U.S. Great Basin. Compared to other assembly-based methods, taxonomic binning with a read-based machine learning approach yielded final assemblies with the highest predicted genome completeness of any method tested. Read-first binning subsequently was used to extract Calescamantes bins from all metagenomes with abundant Calescamantes populations, including metagenomes from Octopus Spring and Bison Pool in Yellowstone National Park and Gongxiaoshe Spring in Yunnan Province, China. Metabolic reconstruction suggests that Calescamantes are heterotrophic, facultative anaerobes, which can utilize oxidized nitrogen sources as terminal electron acceptors for respiration in the absence of oxygen and use proteins as their primary carbon source. Despite their phylogenetic divergence, the geographically separate Calescamantes populations were highly similar in their predicted metabolic capabilities and core gene content, respiring O2, or oxidized nitrogen species for energy conservation in distant but chemically similar hot springs. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Later springs green-up faster: the relation between onset and completion of green-up in deciduous forests of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klosterman, Stephen; Hufkens, Koen; Richardson, Andrew D.

2018-05-01

In deciduous forests, spring leaf phenology controls the onset of numerous ecosystem functions. While most studies have focused on a single annual spring event, such as budburst, ecosystem functions like photosynthesis and transpiration increase gradually after budburst, as leaves grow to their mature size. Here, we examine the "velocity of green-up," or duration between budburst and leaf maturity, in deciduous forest ecosystems of eastern North America. We use a diverse data set that includes 301 site-years of phenocam data across a range of sites, as well as 22 years of direct ground observations of individual trees and 3 years of fine-scale high-frequency aerial photography, both from Harvard Forest. We find a significant association between later start of spring and faster green-up: - 0.47 ± 0.04 (slope ± 1 SE) days change in length of green-up for every day later start of spring within phenocam sites, - 0.31 ± 0.06 days/day for trees under direct observation, and - 1.61 ± 0.08 days/day spatially across fine-scale landscape units. To explore the climatic drivers of spring leaf development, we fit degree-day models to the observational data from Harvard Forest. We find that the default phenology parameters of the ecosystem model PnET make biased predictions of leaf initiation (39 days early) and maturity (13 days late) for red oak, while the optimized model has biases of 1 day or less. Springtime productivity predictions using optimized parameters are closer to results driven by observational data (within 1%) than those of the default parameterization (17% difference). Our study advances empirical understanding of the link between early and late spring phenophases and demonstrates that accurately modeling these transitions is important for simulating seasonal variation in ecosystem productivity.

Functional analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index curves reveals overwinter mule deer survival is driven by both spring and autumn phenology

PubMed Central

Hurley, Mark A.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Dray, Stéphane; Taylor, Kyle A.; Smith, W. K.; Zager, Pete; Bonenfant, Christophe

2014-01-01

Large herbivore populations respond strongly to remotely sensed measures of primary productivity. Whereas most studies in seasonal environments have focused on the effects of spring plant phenology on juvenile survival, recent studies demonstrated that autumn nutrition also plays a crucial role. We tested for both direct and indirect (through body mass) effects of spring and autumn phenology on winter survival of 2315 mule deer fawns across a wide range of environmental conditions in Idaho, USA. We first performed a functional analysis that identified spring and autumn as the key periods for structuring the among-population and among-year variation of primary production (approximated from 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) along the growing season. A path analysis showed that early winter precipitation and direct and indirect effects of spring and autumn NDVI functional components accounted for 45% of observed variation in overwinter survival. The effect size of autumn phenology on body mass was about twice that of spring phenology, while direct effects of phenology on survival were similar between spring and autumn. We demonstrate that the effects of plant phenology vary across ecosystems, and that in semi-arid systems, autumn may be more important than spring for overwinter survival. PMID:24733951

Environmental factors influence lesser scaup migration chronology and population monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finger, Taylor A.; Afton, Alan D.; Schummer, Michael L.; Petrie, Scott A.; Badzinski, Shannon S.; Johnson, Michael A.; Szymanski, Michael L.; Jacobs, Kevin J.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Mitchell, Mark

2016-01-01

Identifying environmental metrics specific to lesser scaup (Aythya affinis; scaup) spring migration chronology may help inform development of conservation, management and population monitoring. Our objective was to determine how environmental conditions influence spring migration of lesser scaup to assess the effectiveness of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in accurately estimating scaup populations. We first compared peak timing of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and scaup migration from weekly ground surveys in North Dakota, USA because the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey is designed to capture annual mallard migration. As predicted, we detected that peak timing of scaup and mallard migrations differed in 25 of 36 years investigated (1980–2010). We marked scaup with satellite transmitters (n = 78; 7,403 locations) at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada; Pool 19 of the Mississippi River, Iowa and Illinois, USA; and Presque Isle Bay, Lake Erie, Pennsylvania, USA. We tested the assumption that our marked scaup were representative of the continental population using the traditional survey area by comparing timing of migration of marked birds and scaup counted in the North Dakota Game and Fish Department survey. We detected a strong positive correlation between marked scaup and the survey data, which indicated that marked scaup were representative of the population. We subsequently used our validated sample of marked scaup to investigate the effects of annual variation in temperature, precipitation, and ice cover on spring migration chronology in the traditional and eastern survey areas of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, 2005–2010. We evaluated competing environmental models to explain variation in timing and rate of scaup migration at large-scale and local levels. Spring migration of scaup occurred earlier and faster during springs with warmer temperatures and greater precipitation, variables known to influence energy budgets and wetland availability. Our results suggest that surveys designed to index abundance of breeding mallards is imprecise for estimating scaup abundance, and inaccurate at estimating breeding population size by survey stratum.

How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beatty, William; Kesler, Dylan C.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Naylor, Luke W.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Humburg, Dale D.; Coluccy, John M.; Soulliere, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations is scenario planning.We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness.Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks.Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area.Synthesis and applications. Land-use change may increase waterfowl spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.

Effects of topical fluoride prophylactic agents on the mechanical properties of orthodontic nickel-titanium closed coil springs and stainless steel closed coil springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, Brittany Gelene

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of topical fluoride prophylactic agents on the mechanical unloading properties of nickel-titanium (NiTi) and stainless steel (SS) closed coil springs. Spring were stored at 37°C under static load in phosphate buffered saline (PBS) and treated with either neutral sodium fluoride (NaF) or acidulated phosphate fluoride (APF) five days per week for two minutes. Mechanical testing was done in a dH2O bath at 37°C at 0-, 1-, 4-, 8-, and 12 weeks. Unloading forces for NiTi and SS springs were measured at 9-, 6-, and 3 mm and 2-, 1.5-, and 1 mm, respectively. Scanning electron microscopy was used to evaluate surface topography of selected springs after 12 weeks. Based on a 1-Factor ANOVA and Dunnett's post hoc, 3M NiTi springs showed a significant decrease (p <0.01) in the unloading force at each extension following exposure to both fluoride treatments, but only after 12 weeks. The AO NiTi springs showed a significant decrease in unloading force at each extension after 12 weeks following exposure to NaF. However, with SS springs, there was no significant effect of either fluoride treatment on the SS springs at any extension or time point. SS also springs showed no significant surface topography changes, irrespective of storage conditions, which correlates with the lack of fluoride effects on SS mechanical property effects. In contrast, while there were NiTi surface topography changes (pitting and mottling) following PBS+APF exposure, those changes could not be directly linked to the observed changes in mechanical properties. Results suggest topical fluoride used with NiTi springs could potentially lead to prolonged treatment time due to decreased unloading properties. However, topical fluoride used with SS springs should not affect treatment duration.

Annual distribution of allergenic fungal spores in atmospheric particulate matter in the Eastern Mediterranean; a comparative study between ergosterol and quantitative PCR analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang-Yona, N.; Dannemiller, K.; Yamamoto, N.; Burshtein, N.; Peccia, J.; Yarden, O.; Rudich, Y.

2012-03-01

Airborne fungal spores are an important fraction of atmospheric particulate matter and are major causative agents of allergenic and infectious diseases. Predicting the variability and species of allergy-causing fungal spores requires detailed and reliable methods for identification and quantification. There are diverse methods for their detection in the atmosphere and in the indoor environments; yet, it is important to optimize suitable methods for characterization of fungal spores in atmospheric samples. In this study we sampled and characterized total and specific airborne fungal spores from PM10 samples collected in Rehovot, Israel over an entire year. The total fungal spore concentrations vary throughout the year although the species variability was nearly the same. Seasonal equivalent spore concentrations analyzed by real-time quantitative-PCR-based methods were fall > winter > spring > summer. Reported concentrations based on ergosterol analysis for the same samples were and fall > spring > winter > summer. Correlation between the two analytical methods was found only for the spring season. These poor associations may be due to the per-spore ergosterol variations that arise from both varying production rates, as well as molecular degradation of ergosterol. While conversion of genome copies to spore concentration is not yet straightforward, the potential for improving this conversion and the ability of qPCR to identify groups of fungi or specific species makes this method preferable for environmental spore quantification. Identifying tools for establishing the relation between the presence of species and the actual ability to induce allergies is still needed in order to predict the effect on human health.

Annual distribution of allergenic fungal spores in atmospheric particulate matter in the eastern mediterranean; a comparative study between ergosterol and quantitative PCR analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang-Yona, N.; Dannemiller, K.; Yamamoto, N.; Burshtein, N.; Peccia, J.; Yarden, O.; Rudich, Y.

2011-10-01

Airborne fungal spores are an important fraction of atmospheric particulate matter and are major causative agents of allergenic and infectious diseases. Predicting the variability and species of allergy-causing fungal spores requires detailed and reliable methods for identification and quantification. There are diverse methods for their detection in the atmosphere and in the indoor environments; yet, it is important to optimize suitable methods for characterization of fungal spores in atmospheric samples. In this study we sampled and characterized total and specific airborne fungal spores from PM10 samples collected in Rohovot, Israel over an entire year. The total fungal spore concentrations vary throughout the year although the species variability was nearly the same. Seasonal equivalent spore concentrations analyzed by real-time quantitative-PCR-based methods were fall > winter > spring > summer. Reported concentrations based on ergosterol analysis for the same samples were and fall > spring > winter > summer. Correlation between the two analytical methods was found only for the spring season. These poor associations may be due to the per-spore ergosterol variations that arise from both varying production rates, as well as molecular degradation of ergosterol. While conversion of genome copies to spore concentration is not yet straightforward, the potential for improving this conversion and the ability of qPCR to identify groups of fungi or specific species makes this method preferable for environmental spore quantification. Identifying tools for establishing the relation between the presence of species and the actual ability to induce allergies is still needed in order to predict the effect on human health.

A deformation-formulated micromechanics model of the effective Young's modulus and strength of laminated composites containing local ply curvature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jong-Won; Harris, Charles E.

1990-01-01

A mathematical model based on the Euler-Bermoulli beam theory is proposed for predicting the effective Young's moduli of piecewise isotropic composite laminates with local ply curvatures in the main load-carrying layers. Strains in corrugated layers, in-phase layers, and out-of-phase layers are predicted for various geometries and material configurations by assuming matrix layers as elastic foundations of different spring constants. The effective Young's moduli measured from corrugated aluminum specimens and aluminum/epoxy specimens with in-phase and out-of-phase wavy patterns coincide very well with the model predictions. Moire fringe analysis of an in-phase specimen and an out-of-phase specimen are also presented, confirming the main assumption of the model related to the elastic constraint due to the matrix layers. The present model is also compared with the experimental results and other models, including the microbuckling models, published in the literature. The results of the present study show that even a very small-scale local ply curvature produces a noticeable effect on the mechanical constitutive behavior of a laminated composite.

Performance on Monitoring Basic Skills Progress--Computation Probes in First, Second, and Third Grade: Is It a Predictor of Pennsylvania System of School Assessment Mathematics Achievement in Third Grade?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Adelle C.

2017-01-01

This study examined the predictive relationship of a brief computation measure administered in the fall, winter, and spring of first, second, and third grade with the mathematic portion of a state-mandated academic achievement test administered in the spring of third grade. The relationship between mathematical achievement and resource…

Vegetation studies, National Training Center, Fort Irwin, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, C.A.; Rickard, W.H.; Cadoret, N.A.

1997-09-01

During the spring of 1992, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted surveys of the Avawatz and Granite mountains springs for the National Training Center (NTC) to evaluate the occurrence of sensitive plant species in these areas. PNNL also conducted a survey of the eastern outwash of the Paradise Range for the occurrence of Lane Mountain milk vetch (Astragalus jaegerianus). In spring of 1993, PNNL conducted an additional study of Lane Mountain milk vetch on the NTC to determine habitat characteristics for this plant and to develop a method for predicting its potential occurrence, based on simple habitat attributes. Themore » results of these studies are itemized.« less

Flight Tests of the Turbulence Prediction and Warning System (TPAWS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, David W.; Proctor, Fred H.; Ahmad, Nashat N.

2012-01-01

Flight tests of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Turbulence Prediction And Warning System (TPAWS) were conducted in the Fall of 2000 and Spring of 2002. TPAWS is a radar-based airborne turbulence detection system. During twelve flights, NASA's B-757 tallied 53 encounters with convectively induced turbulence. Analysis of data collected during 49 encounters in the Spring of 2002 showed that the TPAWS Airborne Turbulence Detection System (ATDS) successfully detected 80% of the events at least 30 seconds prior to the encounter, achieving FAA recommended performance criteria. Details of the flights, the prevailing weather conditions, and each of the turbulence events are presented in this report. Sensor and environmental characterizations are also provided.

Prediction of suspended-sediment concentrations at selected sites in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 2008-09

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stogner, Sr., Robert W.; Nelson, Jonathan M.; McDonald, Richard R.; Kinzel, Paul J.; Mau, David P.

2013-01-01

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments, Colorado Water Conservation Board, Colorado Springs City Engineering, and the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District, began a small-scale pilot study to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of a computational model of streamflow and suspended-sediment transport for predicting suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the Fountain Creek watershed in Colorado. Increased erosion and sedimentation damage have been identified by the Fountain Creek Watershed Plan as key problems within the watershed. A recommendation in the Fountain Creek Watershed plan for management of the basin is to establish measurable criteria to determine if progress in reducing erosion and sedimentation damage is being made. The major objective of this study was to test a computational method to predict local suspended-sediment loads at two sites with different geomorphic characteristics in order to evaluate the feasibility of using such an approach to predict local suspended-sediment loads throughout the entire watershed. Detailed topographic surveys, particle-size data, and suspended-sediment samples were collected at two gaged sites: Monument Creek above Woodmen Road at Colorado Springs, Colorado (USGS gage 07103970), and Sand Creek above mouth at Colorado Springs, Colorado (USGS gage 07105600). These data were used to construct three-dimensional computational models of relatively short channel reaches at each site. The streamflow component of these models predicted a spatially distributed field of water-surface elevation, water velocity, and bed shear stress for a range of stream discharges. Using the model predictions, along with measured particle sizes, the sediment-transport component of the model predicted the suspended-sediment concentration throughout the reach of interest. These computed concentrations were used with predicted flow patterns and channel morphology to determine fluxes of suspended sediment for the median particle size and for the measured range of particle sizes in the channel. Three different techniques were investigated for making the suspended-sediment predictions; these techniques have varying degrees of reliance on measured data and also have greatly differing degrees of complexity. Based on these data, the calibrated Rouse method provided the best balance between accuracy and both computational and data collection costs; the presence of substantial washload was the primary factor in eliminating the simpler and the more complex techniques. Based on this work, using the selected technique at additional sites in the watershed to determine relative loads and source areas appears plausible. However, to ensure that the methodology presented in this report yields reasonable results at other selected sites in the basin, it is necessary to collect additional verification data sets at those locations.

Metagenomic identification of active methanogens and methanotrophs in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy

PubMed Central

Thornton, Christopher N.; Hyer, Alex; Twing, Katrina I.; Longino, August A.; Lang, Susan Q.; Lilley, Marvin D.; Früh-Green, Gretchen L.; Schrenk, Matthew O.

2017-01-01

The production of hydrogen and methane by geochemical reactions associated with the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks can potentially support subsurface microbial ecosystems independent of the photosynthetic biosphere. Methanogenic and methanotrophic microorganisms are abundant in marine hydrothermal systems heavily influenced by serpentinization, but evidence for methane-cycling archaea and bacteria in continental serpentinite springs has been limited. This report provides metagenomic and experimental evidence for active methanogenesis and methanotrophy by microbial communities in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy. Methanogens belonging to family Methanobacteriaceae and methanotrophic bacteria belonging to family Methylococcaceae were heavily enriched in three ultrabasic springs (pH 12). Metagenomic data also suggest the potential for hydrogen oxidation, hydrogen production, carbon fixation, fermentation, and organic acid metabolism in the ultrabasic springs. The predicted metabolic capabilities are consistent with an active subsurface ecosystem supported by energy and carbon liberated by geochemical reactions within the serpentinite rocks of the Voltri Massif. PMID:28149702

Calibrating the future highway safety manual predictive methods for Oregon state highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-01

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) was published by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in the spring of 2010. Volume 2 (Part C) of the HSM includes safety predictive methods which can be used to quantitativel...

Linear bubble plume model for hypolimnetic oxygenation: Full-scale validation and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singleton, V. L.; Gantzer, P.; Little, J. C.

2007-02-01

An existing linear bubble plume model was improved, and data collected from a full-scale diffuser installed in Spring Hollow Reservoir, Virginia, were used to validate the model. The depth of maximum plume rise was simulated well for two of the three diffuser tests. Temperature predictions deviated from measured profiles near the maximum plume rise height, but predicted dissolved oxygen profiles compared very well with observations. A sensitivity analysis was performed. The gas flow rate had the greatest effect on predicted plume rise height and induced water flow rate, both of which were directly proportional to gas flow rate. Oxygen transfer within the hypolimnion was independent of all parameters except initial bubble radius and was inversely proportional for radii greater than approximately 1 mm. The results of this work suggest that plume dynamics and oxygen transfer can successfully be predicted for linear bubble plumes using the discrete-bubble approach.

Microbial ecology of two hot springs of Sikkim: Predominate population and geochemistry.

PubMed

Najar, Ishfaq Nabi; Sherpa, Mingma Thundu; Das, Sayak; Das, Saurav; Thakur, Nagendra

2018-10-01

Northeastern regions of India are known for their floral and faunal biodiversity. Especially the state of Sikkim lies in the eastern Himalayan ecological hotspot region. The state harbors many sulfur rich hot springs which have therapeutic and spiritual values. However, these hot springs are yet to be explored for their microbial ecology. The development of neo generation techniques such as metagenomics has provided an opportunity for inclusive study of microbial community of different environment. The present study describes the microbial diversity in two hot springs of Sikkim that is Polok and Borong with the assist of culture dependent and culture independent approaches. The culture independent techniques used in this study were next generation sequencing (NGS) and Phospholipid Fatty Acid Analysis (PLFA). Having relatively distinct geochemistry both the hot springs are thermophilic environments with the temperature range of 50-77 °C and pH range of 5-8. Metagenomic data revealed the dominance of bacteria over archaea. The most abundant phyla were Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes although other phyla were also present such as Acidobacteria, Nitrospirae, Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, Parcubacteria and Spirochaetes. The PLFA studies have shown the abundance of Gram Positive bacteria followed by Gram negative bacteria. The culture dependent technique was correlative with PLFA studies. Most abundant bacteria as isolated and identified were Gram-positive genus Geobacillus and Anoxybacillus. The genus Geobacillus has been reported for the first time in North-Eastern states of India. The Geobacillus species obtained from the concerned hot springs were Geobacillus toebii, Geobacillus lituanicus, Geobacillus Kaustophillus and the Anoxybacillus species includes Anoxybacillus gonensis and Anoxybacillus Caldiproteolyticus. The distribution of major genera and their statistical correlation analyses with the geochemistry of the springs predicted that the temperature, pH, alkalinity, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Cl 2+ , and sulfur were main environmental variables influencing the microbial community composition and diversity. Also the piper diagram suggested that the water of both the hot springs are Ca-HCO 3- type and can be predicted as shallow fresh ground waters. This study has provided an insight into the ecological interaction of the diverse microbial communities and associated physicochemical parameters, which will help in determining the future studies on different biogeochemical pathways in these hot springs. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models.

PubMed

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Tibetan Plateau and Summer Droughts/Floods in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Li, W.; LI, Q.; Diallo, I.; Chu, P. C.; Guo, W.; Fu, C.

2017-12-01

Recurrent extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of the climate of East Asia, especially over the Yangtze River basin. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly. In addition, snow in the Tibetan Plateau has also been considered as one of the factors affecting the Asian monsoon variability. However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to explain the extreme climate events fully and snow has difficulty to use as a predictor. Remote effects of observed large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature variability in Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian regional droughts/floods, however, have been largely ignored. We conjecture that a temporally filtered response to snow anomalies may be preserved in the LST anomaly. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses the LST/SUBT effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over TP is closely associated with precipitation anomalies in East Asia with a dipole pattern, i.e., negative/positive TP spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the region south of the Yangtze River and wet/dry conditions to the north of the Yangtze River. Climate models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship between spring cold LST anomaly in the TP and the severe 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River in eastern Asia. This severe drought resulted in 100 x 106 kg crop yield losses and an economic loss of 5.8 billion Chinese Yuan. The modeling study suggests that the LST effect produced about 58% of observed precipitation deficit; while the SST effect produced about 32% of the drought conditions. Meanwhile, the LST and SST effects also simulated the observed flood over to the north of the Yangtze River. This suggests that inclusion of this LST effect is essential to make reliable East Asian drought/flood predictions.

Effect of Deoxidation Process on Inclusion and Fatigue Performance of Spring Steel for Automobile Suspension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yang; Chen, Weiqing; Wan, Changjie; Wang, Fangjun; Han, Huaibin

2018-04-01

55SiCrA spring steel was smelted in a vacuum induction levitation furnace. The liquid steel was treated by Si deoxidation, Al modification with Ca treatment and Al modification, and the steel samples were obtained with deformable Al2O3-SiO2-CaO-MgO inclusions closely contacted with steel matrix, Al2O3-CaO-CaS-SiO2-MgO inclusions surrounded by small voids or Al2O3(> 80 pct)-SiO2-CaO-MgO inclusions surrounded by big voids, respectively. Effect of three types of inclusions on steel fatigue cracks was studied. The perpendicular and transverse fatigue cracks around the three types of inclusions leading to fracture were found to vary in behavior. Under the applied stress amplitude of 775 MPa, the fatigue lives of the three spring steels decreased from 4.0 × 107 to 3.8 × 107, and to 3.1 × 107 cycles. For the applied stress amplitude of 750 MPa, the fatigue lives of the three spring steels decreased from 5.2 × 107 to 4.1 × 107, and to 3.4 × 107 cycles. Based on the voids around inclusions, the equivalent size of initial fatigue crack has been newly defined as √ {{{area}_{inclusion} }/{(1 - {CC)}}} , where the contraction coefficient CC of inclusion was introduced. A reliable forecast model of the critical size of inclusion leading to fracture was established by the incorporation of actual width b inclusion or diameter d inclusion of internal inclusion; the model prediction was found to be in agreement with experimental results.

Springs of Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. B. W.

1996-03-01

Predictably, in a country such as Britain, with its preponderance of consolidated, sedimentary, mainly fissure-flow aquifers, there is a very large number of springs, many of which are, or have been, used for public supply. Migratory springs are a feature of the British (Ur. Cretaceous) Chalk, the most important British aquifer. The Chalk's low specific yield and high capillary moisture retention together give rise to very considerable fluctuations (more than 33 m in some areas) of the unconfined water table. Along the gentle dip slopes of the Chalk (North and South Downs of southern and southeastern England) springs may migrate laterally for several miles, giving rise to seasonal streams locally known as “bournes” or “lavants”. However, springs such as at Duncton, West Sussex, at the base of the much steeper scarp slopes of the Chalk, form point sources, the flows from which tend to be relatively steady; such springs commonly supply and are the original reason for the existence of many of the small towns and villages which nestle along the bases of the chalk scarps of Sussex and Kent. Where the Chalk forms coastal cliffs, a number of springs break out at the base of the cliff between high and low tide levels; there are major chalk coastal springs, for instance, at St. Margaret's Bay (Kent) and at Arish Mells, east of Lulworth Cove, Dorset. Such springs are not used for direct supply (their salinity is usually too high) but are indicators of the presence of local reserves of groundwater for possible future development.

1988 Hanford riverbank springs characterization report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dirkes, R.L.

1990-12-01

This reports presents the results of a special study undertaken to characterize the riverbank springs (i.e., ground-water seepage) entering the Columbia River along the Hanford Site. Radiological and nonradiological analyses were performed. River water samples were also analyzed from upstream and downstream of the Site as well as from the immediate vicinity of the springs. In addition, irrigation return water and spring water entering the river along the shoreline opposite Hanford were analyzed. Hanford-origin contaminants were detected in spring water entering the Columbia River along the Hanford Site. The type and concentrations of contaminants in the spring water were similarmore » to those known to exist in the ground water near the river. The location and extent of the contaminated discharges compared favorably with recent ground-water reports and predictions. Spring discharge volumes remain very small relative to the flow of the Columbia. Downstream river sampling demonstrates the impact of ground-water discharges to be minimal, and negligible in most cases. Radionuclide concentrations were below US Department of Energy Derived Concentration Guides (DCGs) with the exception {sup 90}Sr near the 100-N Area. Tritium, while below the DCG, was detected at concentrations above the US Environmental Protection Agency drinking water standards in several springs. All other radionuclide concentrations were below drinking water standards. Nonradiological contaminants were generally undetectable in the spring water. River water contaminant concentrations, outside of the immediate discharge zones, were below drinking water standards in all cases. 19 refs., 5 figs., 12 tabs.« less

Comparative recruitment success of pine provenances (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra) under simulated climate change in the Swiss Rhone valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Sarah; Moser, Barbara; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Wohlgemuth, Thomas

2010-05-01

Low elevation Scots pine forests of European inner-alpine dry valleys may potentially disappear under continued climate warming, largely in response to increased warming and drought effects. In the upper Rhone valley, the driest region in Switzerland, increased Scots pine mortality in mature forest stands and sparse tree establishment after a large-scale forest fire already give evidence for ongoing climate change. Furthermore, vegetation models predict a decline of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens) even under a moderate temperature increase of 2-3°C. A decline of tree species in the region may lead to a transition from forest to a steppe-like vegetation. Such a change is of considerable concern for both biodiversity and natural hazard protection. Although changing climate conditions affect all life stages of a tree, its most vulnerable stage is recruitment. We tested P. sylvestris and P. nigra seedlings to simulated temperature increase and water stress, using seeds from the upper Rhone valley, Switzerland (CH), and from Peñyagolosa, Spain (ES). The experiment was located outdoors at the bottom of the Rhone Valley. Treatments consisted of factorial combinations of 3 precipitation regimes (‘wet spring-wet summer', ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer') and 3 soil heating levels (+0 °C, +2.5 °C, +5 °C). Automatically operated shelters intercepted natural rainfall and different precipitation regimes were simulated by manual irrigation. We found significantly lower germination rates under dry conditions compared to wet conditions, whereas soil temperature affected germination rates only for P. nigra and when elevated by 5°C. Contrastingly, an increase of soil temperatures by 2.5 °C already caused a substantial decrease of survival rates under both ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer' conditions. Precipitation regime was more important for survival than temperature increase. Seasonality of precipitation had distinct effects on the number of seedlings present after the first growing season. In the ‘wet spring-dry summer' treatment, a high germination rate overcompensated for low summer survival rates, resulting in higher seedling numbers at the end of the growing season in comparison to the ‘dry spring-dry summer' treatment. Biomass strongly depended on precipitation regime (‘wet spring-wet summer' > ‘dry spring-dry summer' > ‘wet spring-dry summer'), as well as having a strong provenance component with higher biomass recorded for Spanish P. sylvestris provenance than for the Swiss provenance under dry conditions. Our results imply that impacts of climate warming on tree recruitment will strongly depend on the way precipitation quantity and patterns change in the future, and early recruitment stages of provenances clearly differ in their ability to cope with drought.

Estimation of deepwater temperature and hydrogeochemistry of springs in the Takab geothermal field, West Azerbaijan, Iran.

PubMed

Sharifi, Reza; Moore, Farid; Mohammadi, Zargham; Keshavarzi, Behnam

2016-01-01

Chemical analyses of water samples from 19 hot and cold springs are used to characterize Takab geothermal field, west of Iran. The springs are divided into two main groups based on temperature, host rock, total dissolved solids (TDS), and major and minor elements. TDS, electrical conductivity (EC), Cl(-), and SO4 (2-) concentrations of hot springs are all higher than in cold springs. Higher TDS in hot springs probably reflect longer circulation and residence time. The high Si, B, and Sr contents in thermal waters are probably the result of extended water-rock interaction and reflect flow paths and residence time. Binary, ternary, and Giggenbach diagrams were used to understand the deeper mixing conditions and locations of springs in the model system. It is believed that the springs are heated either by mixing of deep geothermal fluid with cold groundwater or low conductive heat flow. Mixing ratios are evaluated using Cl, Na, and B concentrations and a mass balance approach. Calculated quartz and chalcedony geothermometer give lower reservoir temperatures than cation geothermometers. The silica-enthalpy mixing model predicts a subsurface reservoir temperature between 62 and 90 °C. The δ(18)O and δD (δ(2)H) are used to trace and determine the origin and movement of water. Both hot and cold waters plot close to the local meteoric line, indicating local meteoric origin.

Preservation of Biological Information in Thermal Spring Deposits: Developing a Strategy for the Search for Fossil Life on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, M. R.; Des Marais, David J.

1993-01-01

Current interpretations of the early history of Mars suggest many similarities with the early Earth and therefore raise the possibility that the Archean and Proterozoic history of life on Earth could have a counterpart on Mars. Terrestrial experience suggests that, with techniques that can be employed remotely, ancient springs, including thermal springs, could well yield important information. By delivering water and various dissolved species to the sunlit surface of Mars, springs very likely created an environment suitable for life, which could have been difficult, if not impossible, to attain elsewhere. The chemical and temperature gradients associated with thermal springs sort organisms into sharply delineated, distinctive and different communities, and so diverse organisms are concentrated into relatively small areas in a predictable and informative fashion. A wide range of metabolic strategies are concentrated into small areas, thus furnishing a useful and representative sampling of the existing biota. Mineral-charged springwaters frequently deposit chemical precipitates of silica and/or carbonate which incorporate microorganisms and preserve them as fossils. The juxtaposition of stream valley headwaters with volcanoes and impact craters on Mars strongly implies that subsurface heating of groundwater created thermal springs. On Earth, thermal springs create distinctive geomorphic features and chemical signatures which can be detected by remote sensing. Spring deposits can be quite different chemically from adjacent rocks. Individual springs can be hundreds of meters wide, and complexes of springs occupy areas up to several kilometers wide. Benthic microbial mats and the resultant stromatolites occupy a large fraction of the available area. The relatively high densities of fossils and microbial mat fabrics within these deposits make them highly prospective in any search for morphological evidence of life, and there are examples of microbial fossils in spring deposits as old as 300 Myr.

Preservation of biological information in thermal spring deposits: developing a strategy for the search for fossil life on Mars.

PubMed

Walter, M R; Des Marais, D J

1993-01-01

Current interpretations of the early history of Mars suggest many similarities with the early Earth and therefore raise the possibility that the Archean and Proterozoic history of life on Earth could have a counterpart on Mars. Terrestrial experience suggests that, with techniques that can be employed remotely, ancient springs, including thermal springs, could well yield important information. By delivering water and various dissolved species to the sunlit surface of Mars, springs very likely created an environment suitable for life, which could have been difficult, if not impossible, to attain elsewhere. The chemical and temperature gradients associated with thermal springs sort organisms into sharply delineated, distinctive and different communities, and so diverse organisms are concentrated into relatively small areas in a predictable and informative fashion. A wide range of metabolic strategies are concentrated into small areas, thus furnishing a useful and representative sampling of the existing biota. Mineral-charged springwaters frequently deposit chemical precipitates of silica and/or carbonate which incorporate microorganisms and preserve them as fossils. The juxtaposition of stream valley headwaters with volcanoes and impact craters on Mars strongly implies that subsurface heating of groundwater created thermal springs. On Earth, thermal springs create distinctive geomorphic features and chemical signatures which can be detected by remote sensing. Spring deposits can be quite different chemically from adjacent rocks. Individual springs can be hundreds of meters wide, and complexes of springs occupy areas up to several kilometers wide. Benthic microbial mats and the resultant stromatolites occupy a large fraction of the available area. The relatively high densities of fossils and microbial mat fabrics within these deposits make them highly prospective in any search for morphological evidence of life, and there are examples of microbial fossils in spring deposits as old as 300 Myr.

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests

PubMed Central

Frey, Sarah J. K.; Hadley, Adam S.; Johnson, Sherri L.; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A.; Betts, Matthew G.

2016-01-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming. PMID:27152339

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests.

PubMed

Frey, Sarah J K; Hadley, Adam S; Johnson, Sherri L; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A; Betts, Matthew G

2016-04-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming.

How Do Trees Know When to Flower? Predicting Reproductive Phenology of Douglas-fir with Changing Winter and Spring Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prevey, J.; St Clair, B.; Harrington, C.

2016-12-01

Flowering at the right time is one of the primary ways that plants are adapted to their environment. Trees that flower too early risk cold damage to vulnerable new tissues and those that flower too late miss peak resources or may mistime flowering to coincide with other trees, altering outcrossing rates and gene flow. Past observations indicate that temperature cues over winter and spring influence the timing of flowering in many tree species. Understanding these cues is important for predicting how flowering phenology of trees will change with a changing climate.We developed predictive models of flowering for Douglas-fir, an abundant and commercially important tree in the Pacific Northwest. We assembled over 10,000 flowering observations of trees from 11 sites across western Oregon and Washington. We modeled the dates of flowering using hourly temperature data; our models of flowering were adapted from previous models of vegetative budburst and height growth initiation developed for Douglas-fir. Preliminary results show that both chilling (cold) and forcing (warm) temperatures over winter and spring are important determinants of flowering time for Douglas-fir. This suggests that as spring temperatures warm in the future, Douglas-fir across the Pacific Northwest will flower earlier, unless plants experience insufficient chilling over winter, in which case it is possible that Douglas-fir may flower later than in the past, or not flower at all. At one site, Douglas-fir genotypes from different geographic regions flowered in the same order from year to year, indicating that both temperature and heredity influence flowering. Knowledge of the environmental and genetic cues that drive the timing of flowering can help predict how changes in temperature under various climate models could change flowering time across sites. These models may also indicate the geographic areas where future climate could enhance or reduce flowering of Douglas-fir in the future.

Predictability of two types of El Niño and their climate impacts in boreal spring to summer in coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ray Wai-Ki; Tam, Chi-Yung; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2017-12-01

The predictability of the two El Niño types and their different impacts on the East Asian climate from boreal spring to summer have been studied, based on coupled general circulation models (CGCM) simulations from the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast experiments. It was found that both the spatial pattern and temporal persistence of canonical (eastern Pacific type) El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) are much better simulated than those for El Niño Modoki (central Pacific type). In particular, most models tend to have El Niño Modoki events that decay too quickly, in comparison to those observed. The ability of these models in distinguishing between the two types of ENSO has also been assessed. Based on the MME average, the two ENSO types become less and less differentiated in the model environment as the forecast leadtime increases. Regarding the climate impact of ENSO, in spring during canonical El Niño, coupled models can reasonably capture the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western north Pacific (WNP)/Philippine Sea area, as well as rainfall over coastal East Asia. However, most models have difficulties in predicting the springtime dry signal over Indochina to South China Sea (SCS) when El Niño Modoki occurs. This is related to the location of the simulated anomalous anticyclone in this region, which is displaced eastward over SCS relative to the observed. In boreal summer, coupled models still exhibit some skills in predicting the East Asian rainfall during canonical El Nino, but not for El Niño Modoki. Overall, models' performance in spring to summer precipitation forecasts is dictated by their ability in capturing the low-level anticyclonic feature over the WNP/SCS area. The latter in turn is likely to be affected by the realism of the time mean monsoon circulation in models.

Ecology, distribution, and predictive occurrence modeling of Palmers chipmunk (Tamias palmeri): a high-elevation small mammal endemic to the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrey, Chris E.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Riddle, Brett R.; Mantooth, Stacy

2016-01-01

Although montane sky islands surrounded by desert scrub and shrub steppe comprise a large part of the biological diversity of the Basin and Range Province of southwestern North America, comprehensive ecological and population demographic studies for high-elevation small mammals within these areas are rare. Here, we examine the ecology and population parameters of the Palmer’s chipmunk (Tamias palmeri) in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada, and present a predictive GIS-based distribution and probability of occurrence model at both home range and geographic spatial scales. Logistic regression analyses and Akaike Information Criterion model selection found variables of forest type, slope, and distance to water sources as predictive of chipmunk occurrence at the geographic scale. At the home range scale, increasing population density, decreasing overstory canopy cover, and decreasing understory canopy cover contributed to increased survival rates.

Reductions in aggressive behavior within the context of a universal, social emotional learning program: Classroom- and student-level mechanisms.

PubMed

Portnow, Sam; Downer, Jason T; Brown, Joshua

2018-06-01

The present study uses data from 35 third through fifth-grade urban classrooms and 531 students to examine the extent to which student-level social and emotional skills (e.g., low hostile attribution bias and low aggressive interpersonal negotiation strategies) and emotionally supportive learning environments predict aggressive behavior over the course of a school year. Results of multiple regression analyses indicated that across teacher-reported measures of aggressive behavior, more classroom emotional support over the course of the school year predicted less aggressive behavior in spring, particularly for children whose hostile attribution bias decreased over the course of the year. According to a child-reported measure of aggressive behavior, declines in aggressive interpersonal negotiation strategies over the course of the year also predicted less aggressive behavior in spring. Moreover, these results operated similarly across all children. Implications for SEL programs are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-12-01

In eastern East Africa (the southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia region), poor boreal spring (long wet season) rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent East African droughts to a stronger Walker circulation, resulting from warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increased east-to-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the western Pacific, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied to SST fluctuations in the western central Pacific and central Indian Ocean, respectively. Variations in these two rainfall modes can thus be predicted using two SST indices - the western Pacific gradient (WPG) and central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with our statistical forecasts exhibiting reasonable cross-validated skill (rcv ≈ 0.6). In contrast, the current generation of coupled forecast models show no skill during the long rains. Our SST indices also appear to capture most of the major recent drought events such as 2000, 2009 and 2011. Predictions based on these simple indices can be used to support regional forecasting efforts and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Predicting characteristics of rainfall driven estrogen runoff and transport from swine AFO spray fields.

PubMed

Lee, Boknam; Kullman, Seth W; Yost, Erin E; Meyer, Michael T; Worley-Davis, Lynn; Williams, C Michael; Reckhow, Kenneth H

2015-11-01

Animal feeding operations (AFOs) have been implicated as potentially major sources of estrogenic contaminants into the aquatic environment due to the relatively minimal treatment of waste and potential mobilization and transport of waste components from spray fields. In this study a Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to inform management decisions and better predict the transport and fate of natural steroidal estrogens from these sites. The developed BN model integrates processes of surface runoff and sediment loss with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) runoff model. What-if scenario simulations of lagoon slurry wastes to the spray fields were conducted for the most abundant natural estrogen estrone (E1) observed in the system. It was found that E1 attenuated significantly after 2 months following waste slurry application in both spring and summer seasons, with the overall attenuation rate predicted to be higher in the summer compared to the spring. Using simulations of rainfall events in conjunction with waste slurry application rates, it was predicted that the magnitude of E1 runoff loss is significantly higher in the spring as compared to the summer months, primarily due to spray field crop management plans. Our what-if scenario analyses suggest that planting Bermuda grass in the spray fields is likely to reduce runoff losses of natural estrogens near the water bodies and ecosystems, as compared to planting of soybeans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Characteristics of Rainfall Driven Estrogen Runoff and Transport from Swine AFO Spray Fields

PubMed Central

Lee, Boknam; Kullman, Seth W.; Yost, Erin E.; Meyer, Michael T.; Worley-Davis, Lynn; Williams, C. Michael; Reckhow, Kenneth H.

2017-01-01

Animal feeding operations (AFOs) have been implicated as potentially major sources of estrogenic contaminants into the aquatic environment due to the relatively minimal treatment of waste and potential mobilization and transport of waste components from spray fields. In this study a Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to inform management decisions and better predict the transport and fate of natural steroidal estrogens from these sites. The developed BN model integrates processes of surface runoff and sediment loss with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) runoff model. What-if scenario simulations of lagoon slurry wastes to the spray fields were conducted for the most abundant natural estrogen estrone (E1) observed in the system. It was found that E1 attenuated significantly after 2 months following waste slurry application in both spring and summer seasons, with the overall attenuation rate predicted to be higher in the summer compared to the spring. Using simulations of rainfall events in conjunction with waste slurry application rates, it was predicted that the magnitude of E1 runoff loss is significantly higher in the spring as compared to the summer months, primarily due to spray field crop management plans. Our what-if scenario analyses suggest that planting Bermuda grass in the spray fields is likely to reduce runoff losses of natural estrogens near the water bodies and ecosystems, as compared to planting of soybeans. PMID:26102057

Taxonomic and functional characteristics of microbial communities and their correlation with physicochemical properties of four geothermal springs in Odisha, India

PubMed Central

Badhai, Jhasketan; Ghosh, Tarini S.; Das, Subrata K.

2015-01-01

This study describes microbial diversity in four tropical hot springs representing moderately thermophilic environments (temperature range: 40–58°C; pH: 7.2–7.4) with discrete geochemistry. Metagenome sequence data showed a dominance of Bacteria over Archaea; the most abundant phyla were Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria, although other phyla were also present, such as Acetothermia, Nitrospirae, Acidobacteria, Firmicutes, Deinococcus-Thermus, Bacteroidetes, Thermotogae, Euryarchaeota, Verrucomicrobia, Ignavibacteriae, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, Spirochaetes, Armatimonadetes, Crenarchaeota, and Aquificae. The distribution of major genera and their statistical correlation analyses with the physicochemical parameters predicted that the temperature, aqueous concentrations of ions (such as sodium, chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate), total hardness, dissolved solids and conductivity were the main environmental variables influencing microbial community composition and diversity. Despite the observed high taxonomic diversity, there were only little variations in the overall functional profiles of the microbial communities in the four springs. Genes involved in the metabolism of carbohydrates and carbon fixation were the most abundant functional class of genes present in these hot springs. The distribution of genes involved in carbon fixation predicted the presence of all the six known autotrophic pathways in the metagenomes. A high prevalence of genes involved in membrane transport, signal transduction, stress response, bacterial chemotaxis, and flagellar assembly were observed along with genes involved in the pathways of xenobiotic degradation and metabolism. The analysis of the metagenomic sequences affiliated to the candidate phylum Acetothermia from spring TB-3 provided new insight into the metabolism and physiology of yet-unknown members of this lineage of bacteria. PMID:26579081

Taxonomic and functional characteristics of microbial communities and their correlation with physicochemical properties of four geothermal springs in Odisha, India.

PubMed

Badhai, Jhasketan; Ghosh, Tarini S; Das, Subrata K

2015-01-01

This study describes microbial diversity in four tropical hot springs representing moderately thermophilic environments (temperature range: 40-58°C; pH: 7.2-7.4) with discrete geochemistry. Metagenome sequence data showed a dominance of Bacteria over Archaea; the most abundant phyla were Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria, although other phyla were also present, such as Acetothermia, Nitrospirae, Acidobacteria, Firmicutes, Deinococcus-Thermus, Bacteroidetes, Thermotogae, Euryarchaeota, Verrucomicrobia, Ignavibacteriae, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, Spirochaetes, Armatimonadetes, Crenarchaeota, and Aquificae. The distribution of major genera and their statistical correlation analyses with the physicochemical parameters predicted that the temperature, aqueous concentrations of ions (such as sodium, chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate), total hardness, dissolved solids and conductivity were the main environmental variables influencing microbial community composition and diversity. Despite the observed high taxonomic diversity, there were only little variations in the overall functional profiles of the microbial communities in the four springs. Genes involved in the metabolism of carbohydrates and carbon fixation were the most abundant functional class of genes present in these hot springs. The distribution of genes involved in carbon fixation predicted the presence of all the six known autotrophic pathways in the metagenomes. A high prevalence of genes involved in membrane transport, signal transduction, stress response, bacterial chemotaxis, and flagellar assembly were observed along with genes involved in the pathways of xenobiotic degradation and metabolism. The analysis of the metagenomic sequences affiliated to the candidate phylum Acetothermia from spring TB-3 provided new insight into the metabolism and physiology of yet-unknown members of this lineage of bacteria.

Evaluation of land surface model representation of phenology: an analysis of model runs submitted to the NACP Interim Site Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, A. D.; Nacp Interim Site Synthesis Participants

2010-12-01

Phenology represents a critical intersection point between organisms and their growth environment. It is for this reason that phenology is a sensitive and robust integrator of the biological impacts of year-to-year climate variability and longer-term climate change on natural systems. However, it is perhaps equally important that phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating ecosystem processes, competitive interactions, and feedbacks to the climate system. Unfortunately, the phenological sub-models implemented in most state-of-the-art ecosystem models and land surface schemes are overly simplified. We quantified model errors in the representation of the seasonal cycles of leaf area index (LAI), gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange of CO2. Our analysis was based on site-level model runs (14 different models) submitted to the North American Carbon Program (NACP) Interim Synthesis, and long-term measurements from 10 forested (5 evergreen conifer, 5 deciduous broadleaf) sites within the AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada networks. Model predictions of the seasonality of LAI and GEP were unacceptable, particularly in spring, and especially for deciduous forests. This is despite an historical emphasis on deciduous forest phenology, and the perception that controls on spring phenology are better understood than autumn phenology. Errors of up to 25 days in predicting “spring onset” transition dates were common, and errors of up to 50 days were observed. For deciduous sites, virtually every model was biased towards spring onset being too early, and autumn senescence being too late. Thus, models predicted growing seasons that were far too long for deciduous forests. For most models, errors in the seasonal representation of deciduous forest LAI were highly correlated with errors in the seasonality of both GPP and NEE, indicating the importance of getting the underlying canopy dynamics correct. Most of the models in this comparison were unable to successfully predict the observed interannual variability in either spring or autumn transition dates. And, perhaps surprisingly, the seasonal cycles of models using phenology prescribed by remote sensing observations was, in general, no better than that that predicted by models with prognostic phenology. Reasons for the poor performance of both approaches will be discussed. These results highlight the need for improved understanding of the environmental controls on vegetation phenology. Existing models are unlikely to accurately predict future responses of phenology to climate change, and therefore will misrepresent the seasonality of key biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks and interactions in coupled model runs. New data sets, as for example from webcam-based monitoring networks (e.g. PhenoCam) or citizen science efforts (USA National Phenology Network) should prove valuable in this regard.

Landscape controls on the timing of spring, autumn, and growing season length in mid-Atlantic forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elmore, A.J.; Guinn, S.M.; Minsley, B.J.; Richardson, A.D.

2012-01-01

The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field-based and remote-sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium-resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate-related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf-area trajectories in mid-Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape-scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change.

Actinometric measurement of j(O3-O(1D)) using a luminol detector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bairai, Solomon T.; Stedman, Donald H.

1992-01-01

The photolysis frequency of ozone to singlet D oxygen atoms has been measured by means of a chemical actinometer using a luminol based detector. The instrument measures j(O3-O(1D)) with a precision of 10 percent. The data collected in winter and spring of 1991 is in agreement with model predictions and previously measured values. Data from a global solar radiometer can be used to estimate the effects of local cloudiness on j(O3-O(1D)).

Local-global analysis of crack growth in continuously reinfoced ceramic matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballarini, Roberto; Ahmed, Shamim

1989-01-01

This paper describes the development of a mathematical model for predicting the strength and micromechanical failure characteristics of continuously reinforced ceramic matrix composites. The local-global analysis models the vicinity of a propagating crack tip as a local heterogeneous region (LHR) consisting of spring-like representation of the matrix, fibers and interfaces. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effects of LHR size, component properties, and interface conditions on the strength and sequence of the failure processes in the unidirectional composite system.

Sources and Residence Times of Groundwater in Shasta County, CA Determined by Isotopic Tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, E.; Moran, J. E.; Deinhart, A.; Roberts, S. K.; Esser, B.; Visser, A.

2015-12-01

Large-volume springs are a significant source of water to communities in Shasta County. Aquifers in this region are developed in young volcanic formations and the age and flow of groundwater is not well characterized, making predicting the impact of drought and climate change on spring flow difficult. To better understand the water resources and the hydrogeology of the region and to better constrain the age of water produced by springs, we have sampled water from wells, springs, and streams for a suite of geochemical and isotopic tracers. We are using isotopic tracers because of the limited number of sampling points over a large area, leaving traditional hydrogeologic methods such as water levels and pump tests inadequate for a regional study. We analyzed samples for sulfur-35 (87.4 day half-life) and found detections in two springs, confirming the presence of a fraction of recently (1-2 years) recharged groundwater. Tritium (12.3 year half-life) activities show that some wells produce water recharged more than 5 decades ago, but most produce more recently recharged water. We will also report results for sodium-22 (2.6 year half-life), krypton-85 (10.8 year half-life), carbon-14 (5,730 year half-life), dissolved noble gases, stable isotopes of water, and helium isotopic composition. These isotopes are applied to determine the age (residence time) of groundwater over a broad age distribution, from less than one year to tens of thousands of years. These tracers should also provide information on aquifer volumes, help delineate groundwater flow, and help to identify recharge areas. A collection of groundwater ages from springs at high elevations to wells in the upper Sacramento Valley will help delineate groundwater flowpaths. Finally, groundwater residence times will help determine groundwater volume and recharge rates, and resolve questions related to drought vulnerability and effective adjustments in water resource management.

A numerical study of the effect of irrigation on land-atmosphere interactions in a spring wheat cropland in India using a coupled atmosphere-crop growth dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, S.; Sharma, P.; Srivastava, A.; Rastogi, D.; Sehgal, V. K.; Dhakar, R.; Roy, S. B.

2017-12-01

Vegetation dynamics and surface meteorology are tightly coupled through the exchange of momentum, moisture and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere. In this study, we use a recently developed coupled atmosphere-crop growth dynamics model to study these exchanges and their effects in a spring wheat cropland in northern India. In particular, we investigate the role of irrigation in controlling crop growth rates, surface meteorology, and sensible and latent heat fluxes. The model is developed by implementing a crop growth module based on the Simple and Universal Crop growth Simulator (SUCROS) model in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model. The crop module calculates photosynthesis rates, carbon assimilation, and biomass partitioning as a function of environmental factors and crop development stage. The leaf area index (LAI) and root depth calculated by the crop module is then fed to the Noah-MP land module of WRF to calculate land-atmosphere fluxes. The crop model is calibrated using data from an experimental spring wheat crop site in the Indian Agriculture Research Institute. The coupled model is capable of simulating the observed spring wheat phenology. Irrigation is simulated by changing the soil moisture levels from 50% - 100% of field capacity. Results show that the yield first increases with increasing soil moisture and then starts decreasing as we further increase the soil moisture. Yield attains its maximum value with soil moisture at the level of 60% water of FC. At this level, high LAI values lead to a decrease in the Bowen Ratio because more energy is transferred to the atmosphere as latent heat rather than sensible heat resulting in a cooling effect on near-surface air temperatures. Apart from improving simulation of land-atmosphere interactions, this coupled modeling approach can form the basis for the seamless crop yield and seasonal scale weather outlook prediction system.

Substance use as a longitudinal predictor of the perpetration of teen dating violence.

PubMed

Temple, Jeff R; Shorey, Ryan C; Fite, Paula; Stuart, Gregory L; Le, Vi Donna

2013-04-01

The prevention of teen dating violence is a major public health priority. However, the dearth of longitudinal studies makes it difficult to develop programs that effectively target salient risk factors. Using a school-based sample of ethnically diverse adolescents, this longitudinal study examined whether substance use (alcohol, marijuana, and hard drugs) and exposure to parental violence predicted the perpetration of physical dating violence over time. 1,042 9th and 10th grade high schools students were recruited and assessed in the spring of 2010, and 93 % of the original sample completed the 1-year follow-up in the spring of 2011. Participants who had begun dating at the initial assessment and who self-identified as African American (n = 263; 32 %), Caucasian (n = 272; 33 %), or Hispanic (n = 293; 35 %) were included in the current analyses (n = 828; 55 % female). Slightly more than half of the adolescents who perpetrated dating violence at baseline reported past year dating violence at follow-up, relative to only 11 % of adolescents who did not report perpetrating dating violence at baseline. Structural equation modeling revealed that the use of alcohol and hard drugs at baseline predicted the future perpetration of physical dating violence, even after accounting for the effects of baseline dating violence and exposure to interparental violence. Despite differences in the prevalence of key variables between males and females, the longitudinal associations did not vary by gender. With respect to race, exposure to mother-to-father violence predicted the perpetration of dating violence among Caucasian adolescents. Findings from the current study indicate that targeting substance use, and potentially youth from violent households, may be viable approaches to preventing the perpetration of teen dating violence.

Substance Use as a Longitudinal Predictor of the Perpetration of Teen Dating Violence

PubMed Central

Shorey, Ryan C.; Fite, Paula; Stuart, Gregory; Le, Vi Donna

2013-01-01

The prevention of teen dating violence is a major public health priority. However, the dearth of longitudinal studies makes it difficult to develop programs that effectively target salient risk factors. Using a school-based sample of ethnically diverse adolescents, this longitudinal study examined whether substance use (alcohol, marijuana, and hard drugs) and exposure to parental violence predicted the perpetration of physical dating violence over time. 1,042 9th and 10th grade high schools students were recruited and assessed in the spring of 2010, and 93% of the original sample completed the 1-year follow-up in the spring of 2011. Participants who had begun dating at the initial assessment and who self-identified as African American (n = 263; 32%), Caucasian (n = 272; 33%), or Hispanic (n = 293; 35%) were included in the current analyses (n = 828; 55% female). Slightly more than half of the adolescents who perpetrated dating violence at baseline reported past year dating violence at follow-up, relative to only 11% of adolescents who did not report perpetrating dating violence at baseline. Structural equation modeling revealed that the use of alcohol and hard drugs at baseline predicted the future perpetration of physical dating violence, even after accounting for the effects of baseline dating violence and exposure to interparental violence. Despite differences in the prevalence of key variables between males and females, the longitudinal associations did not vary by gender. With respect to race, exposure to mother-to-father violence predicted the perpetration of dating violence among Caucasian adolescents. Findings from the current study indicate that targeting substance use, and potentially youth from violent households, may be viable approaches to preventing the perpetration of teen dating violence. PMID:23187699

Generalized Predictive Control of Dynamic Systems with Rigid-Body Modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kvaternik, Raymond G.

2013-01-01

Numerical simulations to assess the effectiveness of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) for active control of dynamic systems having rigid-body modes are presented. GPC is a linear, time-invariant, multi-input/multi-output predictive control method that uses an ARX model to characterize the system and to design the controller. Although the method can accommodate both embedded (implicit) and explicit feedforward paths for incorporation of disturbance effects, only the case of embedded feedforward in which the disturbances are assumed to be unknown is considered here. Results from numerical simulations using mathematical models of both a free-free three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring-dashpot system and the XV-15 tiltrotor research aircraft are presented. In regulation mode operation, which calls for zero system response in the presence of disturbances, the simulations showed reductions of nearly 100%. In tracking mode operations, where the system is commanded to follow a specified path, the GPC controllers produced the desired responses, even in the presence of disturbances.

Effects of well discharges on hydraulic heads in and spring discharges from the Geothermal Aquifer System in the Bruneau area, Owyhee County, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles

1993-01-01

substantially less in late summer than in the spring. A hydraulic head/spring discharge relation was developed for two sites at Indian Bathtub Spring and a nearby test hole. The relation for Indian Bathtub Spring indicated that a spring discharge of 2,400 gallons per minute would relate to a hydraulic head of about 2,708 feet at the spring, which is about 34 feet higher than the head at zero spring discharge.

Flows in forward deformable roll coating gaps: Comparison between spring and plane-strain models of roll cover

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carvalho, M.S.; Scriven, L.E.

1997-12-01

In this report the flow between rigid and a deformable rotating rolls fully submerged in a liquid pool is studied. The deformation of compliant roll cover is described by two different models (1) independent, radially oriented springs that deform in response to the traction force applied at the extremity of each or one-dimensional model, and (2) a plane-strain deformation of an incompressible Mooney-Rivlin material or non-linear elastic model. Based on the flow rate predictions of both models, an empirical relation between the spring constant of the one dimensional model and the roll cover thickness and elastic modulus is proposed.

Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhu, Zaichun; Liu, Yongwen; Liu, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Piao, Shilong

2016-11-01

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr -1 . Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H.; Zhu, Zaichun; Liu, Yongwen; Liu, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A.; Piao, Shilong

2017-04-01

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the northern hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e. temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed trend towards later EOS in 70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days per year. Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates (SOS) on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.

The Meteoroid Fluence at Mars Due to Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moorhead, A.; Wiegert, P.; Blaauw, R.; McCarty, C.; Kingery, A.; Cooke, W.

2014-01-01

Long-period comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will experience a close encounter with Mars on 2014 Oct 19. A collision between the comet and the planet has been ruled out, but the comet's coma may envelop Mars and its man-made satellites. By the time of the close encounter, five operational spacecraft will be present near Mars. Characterizing the coma is crucial for assessing the risk posed to these satellites by meteoroid impacts. We present an analytic model of cometary comae that describes the spatial and size distributions of cometary dust and meteoroids. This model correctly reproduces, to within an order of magnitude, the number of impacts recorded by Giotto near 1P/Halley [1] and by Stardust near comet 81P/Wild 2 [2]. Applied to Siding Spring, our model predicts a total particle fluence near Mars of 0.02 particles per square meter. In order to determine the degree to which Siding Spring's coma deviates from a sphere, we perform numerical simulations which take into account both gravitational effects and radiative forces. We take the entire dust component of the coma and tail continuum into account by simulating the ejection and evolution of dust particles from comet Siding Spring. The total number of particles simulated is essentially a free parameter and does not provide a check on the total fluence. Instead, these simulations illustrate the degree to which the coma of Siding Spring deviates from the perfect sphere described by our analytic model (see Figure). We conclude that our analytic model sacrifices less than an order of magnitude in accuracy by neglecting particle dynamics and radiation pressure and is thus adequate for order-of-magnitude fluence estimates. Comet properties may change unpredictably and therefore an analytic coma model that enables quick recalculation of the meteoroid fluence is highly desirable. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office is monitoring comet Siding Spring and taking measurements of cometary brightness and dust production. We will discuss our coma model and nominal fluence taking the latest observations into account.

The integration of geophysical and enhanced Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data into a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.; Brown, Jesslyn F.

2015-01-01

Cheatgrass exhibits spatial and temporal phenological variability across the Great Basin as described by ecological models formed using remote sensing and other spatial data-sets. We developed a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model trained on 99 points that used three data-sets – latitude, elevation, and start of season time based on remote sensing input data – to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth (BOSG) in the northern Great Basin. The model was then applied to map the location and timing of cheatgrass spring growth for the entire area. The model was strong (R2 = 0.85) and predicted an average cheatgrass BOSG across the study area of 29 March–4 April. Of early cheatgrass BOSG areas, 65% occurred at elevations below 1452 m. The highest proportion of cheatgrass BOSG occurred between mid-April and late May. Predicted cheatgrass BOSG in this study matched well with previous Great Basin cheatgrass green-up studies.

On the competition among aerosol number, size and composition in predicting CCN variability: a multi-annual field study in an urbanized desert.

PubMed

Crosbie, E; Youn, J-S; Balch, B; Wonaschütz, A; Shingler, T; Wang, Z; Conant, W C; Betterton, E A; Sorooshian, A

2015-02-10

A 2-year data set of measured CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentrations at 0.2 % supersaturation is combined with aerosol size distribution and aerosol composition data to probe the effects of aerosol number concentrations, size distribution and composition on CCN patterns. Data were collected over a period of 2 years (2012-2014) in central Tucson, Arizona: a significant urban area surrounded by a sparsely populated desert. Average CCN concentrations are typically lowest in spring (233 cm -3 ), highest in winter (430 cm -3 ) and have a secondary peak during the North American monsoon season (July to September; 372 cm -3 ). There is significant variability outside of seasonal patterns, with extreme concentrations (1 and 99 % levels) ranging from 56 to 1945 cm -3 as measured during the winter, the season with highest variability. Modeled CCN concentrations based on fixed chemical composition achieve better closure in winter, with size and number alone able to predict 82% of the variance in CCN concentration. Changes in aerosol chemical composition are typically aligned with changes in size and aerosol number, such that hygroscopicity can be parameterized even though it is still variable. In summer, models based on fixed chemical composition explain at best only 41% (pre-monsoon) and 36% (monsoon) of the variance. This is attributed to the effects of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, the competition between new particle formation and condensational growth, the complex interaction of meteorology, regional and local emissions and multi-phase chemistry during the North American monsoon. Chemical composition is found to be an important factor for improving predictability in spring and on longer timescales in winter. Parameterized models typically exhibit improved predictive skill when there are strong relationships between CCN concentrations and the prevailing meteorology and dominant aerosol physicochemical processes, suggesting that similar findings could be possible in other locations with comparable climates and geography.

Evaluation and Application of Gridded Snow Water Equivalent Products for Improving Snowmelt Flood Predictions in the Red River Basin of the North

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, R.; Jacobs, J. M.; Vuyovich, C.; Cho, E.; Tuttle, S. E.

2017-12-01

Each spring the Red River basin (RRB) of the North, located between the states of Minnesota and North Dakota and southern Manitoba, is vulnerable to dangerous spring snowmelt floods. Flat terrain, low permeability soils and a lack of satisfactory ground observations of snow pack conditions make accurate predictions of the onset and magnitude of major spring flood events in the RRB very challenging. This study investigated the potential benefit of using gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) products from passive microwave satellite missions and model output simulations to improve snowmelt flood predictions in the RRB using NOAA's operational Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). Level-3 satellite SWE products from AMSR-E, AMSR2 and SSM/I, as well as SWE computed from Level-2 brightness temperatures (Tb) measurements, including model output simulations of SWE from SNODAS and GlobSnow-2 were chosen to support the snowmelt modeling exercises. SWE observations were aggregated spatially (i.e. to the NOAA North Central River Forecast Center forecast basins) and temporally (i.e. by obtaining daily screened and weekly unscreened maximum SWE composites) to assess the value of daily satellite SWE observations relative to weekly maximums. Data screening methods removed the impacts of snow melt and cloud contamination on SWE and consisted of diurnal SWE differences and a temperature-insensitive polarization difference ratio, respectively. We examined the ability of the satellite and model output simulations to capture peak SWE and investigated temporal accuracies of screened and unscreened satellite and model output SWE. The resulting SWE observations were employed to update the SNOW-17 snow accumulation and ablation model of CHPS to assess the benefit of using temporally and spatially consistent SWE observations for snow melt predictions in two test basins in the RRB.

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide in victims with and without prior history of hospitalization for mood disorders.

PubMed

Postolache, Teodor T; Mortensen, Preben B; Tonelli, Leonardo H; Jiao, Xiaolong; Frangakis, Constantin; Soriano, Joseph J; Qin, Ping

2010-02-01

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide are highly replicated, but their origin is poorly understood. As the peak of suicide in spring could be a consequence of decompensation of mood disorders in spring, we hypothesized that prior history of mood disorders is predictively associated with suicide in spring. We analyzed the monthly rates of suicide based upon all 37,987 suicide cases in the Danish Cause of Death Registry from 1970 to 2001. History of mood disorder was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register and socioeconomical data from the Integrated Database for Labour Market Research. The monthly rate ratio of suicide relative to December was estimated using a Poisson regression. Seasonality of suicide between individuals with versus without hospitalization for mood disorders was compared using conditional logistic regression analyses with adjustment for income, marital status, place of residence, and method of suicide. A statistically significant spring peak in suicide was observed in both groups. A history of mood disorders was associated with an increased risk of suicide in spring (for males: RR=1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.31; for females: RR=1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.32). History of axis II disorders was not analyzed. Danish socioeconomical realities have only limited generalizability. The results support the need to further investigate if exacerbation of mood disorders in spring triggers seasonal peaks of suicide. Identifying triggers for seasonal spring peaks in suicide may lead to uncovering novel risk factors and therapeutic targets for suicide prevention. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperature requirements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus: predicting the effects of climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, J M; Elliott, J A

2010-11-01

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta (including the anadromous form, sea trout) and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (including anadromous fish) provide important commercial and sports fisheries in Western Europe. As water temperature increases as a result of climate change, quantitative information on the thermal requirements of these three species is essential so that potential problems can be anticipated by those responsible for the conservation and sustainable management of the fisheries and the maintenance of biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems. Part I compares the temperature limits for survival, feeding and growth. Salmo salar has the highest temperature tolerance, followed by S. trutta and finally S. alpinus. For all three species, the temperature tolerance for alevins is slightly lower than that for parr and smolts, and the eggs have the lowest tolerance; this being the most vulnerable life stage to any temperature increase, especially for eggs of S. alpinus in shallow water. There was little evidence to support local thermal adaptation, except in very cold rivers (mean annual temperature <6·5° C). Part II illustrates the importance of developing predictive models, using data from a long-term study (1967-2000) of a juvenile anadromous S. trutta population. Individual-based models predicted the emergence period for the fry. Mean values over 34 years revealed a large variation in the timing of emergence with c. 2 months between extreme values. The emergence time correlated significantly with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, indicating that interannual variations in emergence were linked to more general changes in climate. Mean stream temperatures increased significantly in winter and spring at a rate of 0·37° C per decade, but not in summer and autumn, and led to an increase in the mean mass of pre-smolts. A growth model for S. trutta was validated by growth data from the long-term study and predicted growth under possible future conditions. Small increases (<2·5° C) in winter and spring would be beneficial for growth with 1 year-old smolts being more common. Water temperatures would have to increase by c. 4° C in winter and spring, and 3° C in summer and autumn before they had a marked negative effect on trout growth. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Effects of pulsed turbidity and vessel traffic on lake herring eggs and larvae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savino, Jacqueline F.; Blouin, Marc A.; Davis, Bruce M.; Hudson, Patrick L.; Todd, Thomas N.; Fleischer, Guy W.

1994-01-01

Proposals to extend commercial shipping in the St. Marys River (connecting Lakes Superior and Huron) to include winter months have raised concerns regarding its effect on lake herring (Coregonus artedi). Because lake herring spawn in fall and their eggs overwinter in the river and hatch in spring, their hatching success could be impacted by early opening of the locks in spring. Our laboratory studies showed that under the range of turbidities expected in the river due to vessel traffic, lake herring eggs hatched and larvae fed adequately. Field incubation studies produced about 75% survival and 70% hatching success of lake herring eggs at two of three study sites. Collections in the river throughout the month following ice-out showed that sufficient plankton of appropriate size were available to ensure growth and survival of larval lake herring. We did not detect any negative impacts on the early life stages of lake herring as a result of sedimentation in the laboratory or field. However, detailing the spawning sites of lake herring and defining the normal survival-to-hatch in these areas are necessary before making accurate predictions of the effects of early season vessel traffic on lake herring hatching success.

The effects of dietary protein levels on the population growth, performance, and physiology of honey bee workers during early spring.

PubMed

Zheng, Benle; Wu, Zaifu; Xu, Baohua

2014-01-01

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of dietary protein levels on honey bee colonies, specifically the population growth, physiology, and longevity of honey bee workers during early spring. Diets containing four different levels of crude protein (25.0, 29.5, 34.0, or 38.5%) and pure pollen (control) were evaluated. Twenty-five colonies of honey bees with sister queens were used in the study. We compared the effects of the different bee diets by measuring population growth, emergent worker weight, midgut proteolytic enzyme activity, hypopharyngeal gland development, and survival. After 48 d, the cumulative number of workers produced by the colonies ranged from 22,420 to 29,519, providing a significant fit to a quadratic equation that predicts the maximum population growth when the diet contains 31.7% crude protein. Significantly greater emergent worker weight, midgut proteolytic enzyme activity, hypopharyngeal gland acini, and survival were observed in the colonies that were fed diets containing 34.0% crude protein compared with the other crude protein levels. Although higher emergent worker weight and survival were observed in the colonies that were fed the control diet, there were no significant differences between the control colonies and the colonies that were fed 34.0% crude protein. Based on these results, we concluded that a dietary crude protein content of 29.5-34.0% is recommended to maximize the reproduction rate of honey bee colonies in early spring. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Investigation of Microbial Diversity in Geothermal Hot Springs in Unkeshwar, India, Based on 16S rRNA Amplicon Metagenome Sequencing

PubMed Central

Mehetre, Gajanan T.; Paranjpe, Aditi; Dastager, Syed G.

2016-01-01

Microbial diversity in geothermal waters of the Unkeshwar hot springs in Maharashtra, India, was studied using 16S rRNA amplicon metagenomic sequencing. Taxonomic analysis revealed the presence of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Archeae, and OD1 phyla. Metabolic function prediction analysis indicated a battery of biological information systems indicating rich and novel microbial diversity, with potential biotechnological applications in this niche. PMID:26950332

Water quality, sediment, and soil characteristics near Fargo-Moorhead urban areas as affected by major flooding of the Red River of the north

Treesearch

A.C. Guy; T.M. DeSutter; F.X.M. Casey; R. Kolka; H. Hakk

2012-01-01

Spring flooding of the Red River of the North (RR) is common, but little information exits on how these flood events affect water and overbank sediment quality within an urban area. With the threat of the spring 2009 flood in the RR predicted to be the largest in recorded history and the concerns about the flooding of farmsteads, outbuildings, garages, and basements,...

Quantitative Determination of Spring Water Quality Parameters via Electronic Tongue.

PubMed

Carbó, Noèlia; López Carrero, Javier; Garcia-Castillo, F Javier; Tormos, Isabel; Olivas, Estela; Folch, Elisa; Alcañiz Fillol, Miguel; Soto, Juan; Martínez-Máñez, Ramón; Martínez-Bisbal, M Carmen

2017-12-25

The use of a voltammetric electronic tongue for the quantitative analysis of quality parameters in spring water is proposed here. The electronic voltammetric tongue consisted of a set of four noble electrodes (iridium, rhodium, platinum, and gold) housed inside a stainless steel cylinder. These noble metals have a high durability and are not demanding for maintenance, features required for the development of future automated equipment. A pulse voltammetry study was conducted in 83 spring water samples to determine concentrations of nitrate (range: 6.9-115 mg/L), sulfate (32-472 mg/L), fluoride (0.08-0.26 mg/L), chloride (17-190 mg/L), and sodium (11-94 mg/L) as well as pH (7.3-7.8). These parameters were also determined by routine analytical methods in spring water samples. A partial least squares (PLS) analysis was run to obtain a model to predict these parameter. Orthogonal signal correction (OSC) was applied in the preprocessing step. Calibration (67%) and validation (33%) sets were selected randomly. The electronic tongue showed good predictive power to determine the concentrations of nitrate, sulfate, chloride, and sodium as well as pH and displayed a lower R² and slope in the validation set for fluoride. Nitrate and fluoride concentrations were estimated with errors lower than 15%, whereas chloride, sulfate, and sodium concentrations as well as pH were estimated with errors below 10%.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families. PMID:27783639

The Construct and Predictive Validity of a Dynamic Assessment of Young Children Learning to Read: Implications for RTI Frameworks

PubMed Central

Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L.; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Bouton, Bobette; Caffrey, Erin

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the construct and predictive validity of a dynamic assessment (DA) of decoding learning. Students (N = 318) were assessed in the fall of first grade on an array of instruments that were given in hopes of forecasting responsiveness to reading instruction. These instruments included DA as well as one-point-in-time (static) measures of early alphabetic knowledge, rapid automatized naming (RAN), phonemic awareness, oral vocabulary, listening comprehension, attentive behavior, and hyperactive or impulsive behavior. An IQ test was administered in spring of second grade. Measures of reading outcomes administered in spring of first grade were accuracy and fluency of word identification skills and reading comprehension. Factor analysis using principal axis factor extraction indicated that DA loaded on a first factor that also included language abilities and IQ, which the authors refer to as the “language, IQ, and DA” factor. It was relatively distinct from two additional factors: (a) “speeded alphabetic knowledge and RAN” and (b) “task-oriented behavior.” A three-level (children nested within classroom; classrooms nested within school) random intercept model with fixed effects predictors suggested that DA differed from word attack in predicting future reading skill and that DA was a significant predictor of responsiveness to instruction, contributing unique variance to end-of-first-grade word identification and reading comprehension beyond that explained by other well-established predictors of reading development. PMID:21685347

Effects of storm-water runoff on local ground-water quality, Clarksville, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, Anne B.

1990-01-01

Storm-related water-quality data were collected at a drainage-well site and at a spring site in Clarksville, Tennessee, to define the effects of storm-water runoff on the quality of ground water in the area. A dye-trace test verified the direct hydraulic connection between the drainage well and Mobley Spring. Samples of storm run off and spring flow were collected at these sites for nine storms during the period February to October 1988. Water samples were collected also from Mobley Spring and two other springs and two observation wells in the area during dry-weather conditions to assess the general quality of ground water in an urban karst terrain. Evaluation of the effect of storm-water runoff on the quality of local ground water is complicated by the presence of other sources of contaminants in the area Concentrations and load for most major constituents were much smaller in storm-water runoff at the drainage well than in the discharge of Mobley Spring, indicating that much of the chemical constituent load discharged from the spring comes from sources other than the drainage well. However, for some of the minor constituents associated with roadway runoff (arsenic, copper, lead, organic carbon, and oil and grease), the drainage well contributed relatively large amounts of these constituents to local ground water during storms. The close correlation between concentrations of total organic carbon and concentrations of most trace metals at the drainage-well and Mobley Spring sites indicates that these constituents are transported together. Many trace metals were flushed early during each runoff event. Mean storm loads for copper, lead, zinc, and four nutrient species (total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphorus) in storm-water runoff at the drainage-well site were lower than mean storm load predicted from an existing regression model. The overprediction by the model may be a result of the small size of the drainage area relative to the range of drainage areas used in the development of the models, or to the below-normal amounts of rainfall during the period of sampling for this investigation. Loads& in storm-water runoff for 22 constituents were extrapolated from sampled storms to total loads for the period February to October 1988. Calculated loads for trace metals for the period ranged from 0.030pound.s for cadmium to 12pound.s for strontium. Loads of the primary nutrients ranged from 0.97pounds for nitrite as nitrogen to 34pounds of organic nitrogen. Storm-water quality at the drainage-well and Mobley Spring sites was compared to background water quality of the local aquifer; as characterized by dry-weather samples from three springs and two observation wells in the Clarksville area. Concentrations of total-recoverable cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, and nickel were higher in many stormwater samples from both the drainage-well and Mobley Spring sites than in samples from any other site. In addition, concentrations of total organic carbon, methylene blue active substances, and total-recoverable oil and grease were generally higher in storm-water samples from the drainage-well site than in any ground-water sample. Densities of fecal coliform and fecal streptococcus bacteria and concentrations of total recoverable iron, manganese, and methylene blue active substances in storm samples from the drainage-well site exceeded the maximum contaminant levels listed in Tennessee?s drinking-water standards (1988) by as much as 2,500 and 5,500 colonies per 100 milliliters, and 2.7, 0.29, and 0.05 milligrams per liter, respectively. Densities of fecal coliform and fecal streptococcus bacteria and concentrations of total-recoverable iron, manganese, and lead in storm samples from Mobley Spring exceeded the maximum contaminant levels by as much as 500 and 4,500 colonies per 100 milliliters, and 18.7,0.65, and 0.02 milligrams per liter, respectively. For iron, manganese, and bacteria, these undesirable

Lingering effects of preceding strong El Niño events on the typhoon activity in early summer: Case study of sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaya, Y.; Kubo, Y.; Yamaguchi, M.; Vitart, F.; Hirahara, S.; Maeda, S.

2016-12-01

Strong El Niño events have lingering effects on the seasonal variability in the Indo- western Pacific region in the mature-decay phase of El Niño. Specifically, in the decay phase, a low-level anticyclonic circulation and suppressed convection in the western North Pacific are enforced as a result of a local air-sea feedback in the western North Pacific and remote response to the Indian Ocean warming due to El Niño. The typhoon activity in the western North Pacific is also modulated by the lingering effects in the early typhoon season (boreal spring to early summer) following the strong El Niño events. This study investigates underlying mechanisms and predictability by analyzing the historical analysis data, subseasonal and seasonal reforecast data, and sensitivity experiments with the use of an atmosphere-ocean coupled model for the 2016 typhoon season. In this study, we focus on the remote response of the typhoon activity in the Indo-Pacific region. First, we examined the case of 2016, which exhibited the striking inactive typhoon activity and marked the second latest genesis of the first typhoon of the year since 1977 (Typhoon Nipartak on 3 July 2016). The inactive typhoon activity in the early typhoon season of 2016 is plausibly related to the lingering effects of the preceding strong El Niño in 2015/2016 winter. And the inactive typhoon condition and its related atmosphere-ocean conditions in the western north Pacific were successfully predicted with sub-seasonal prediction systems and JMA seasonal prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS2) well in advance. A composite analysis using historical analysis data indicates that the typhoon activity tends to be suppressed associated with the Indian Ocean warming in boreal spring to summer following El Niño winters. This is relatively well replicated in reforecasts of JMA/MRI-CPS2. We also carried out sensitivity experiments with JMA/MRI-CPS2, where we strongly nudge sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean to climatological SST. The typhoon activity in the western North Pacific is enhanced in the sensitivity experiment, implying that the the Indian Ocean played a role in shaping the inactive typhoon conditions in the 2016 typhoon season. We will further discuss the underlying mechanisms and predictability using the series of experiments.

Fluorescence measurements show stronger cold inhibition of photosynthetic light reactions in Scots pine compared to Norway spruce as well as during spring compared to autumn.

PubMed

Linkosalo, Tapio; Heikkinen, Juha; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Mäkipää, Raisa

2014-01-01

We studied the photosynthetic activity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst) in relation to air temperature changes from March 2013 to February 2014. We measured the chlorophyll fluorescence of approximately 50 trees of each species growing in southern Finland. Fluorescence was measured 1-3 times per week. We began by measuring shoots present in late winter (i.e., March 2013) before including new shoots once they started to elongate in spring. By July, when the spring shoots had achieved similar fluorescence levels to the older ones, we proceeded to measure the new shoots only. We analyzed the data by fitting a sigmoidal model containing four parameters to link sliding averages of temperature and fluorescence. A parameter defining the temperature range over which predicted fluorescence increased most rapidly was the most informative with in describing temperature dependence of fluorescence. The model generated similar fluorescence patterns for both species, but differences were observed for critical temperature and needle age. Down regulation of the light reaction was stronger in spring than in autumn. Pine showed more conservative control of the photosynthetic light reactions, which were activated later in spring and more readily attenuated in autumn. Under the assumption of a close correlation of fluorescence and photosynthesis, spruce should therefore benefit more than pine from the increased photosynthetic potential during warmer springs, but be more likely to suffer frost damage with a sudden cooling following a warm period. The winter of 2013-2014 was unusually mild and similar to future conditions predicted by global climate models. During the mild winter, the activity of photosynthetic light reactions of both conifers, especially spruce, remained high. Because light levels during winter are too low for photosynthesis, this activity may translate to a net carbon loss due to respiration.

Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

2017-03-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

Analysis geothermal prospect of Mt. Endut using geochemistry methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobirin, R.; Permadi, A. N.; Akbar, A. M.; Wildan, D.; Supriyanto

2017-07-01

Mt. Endut geothermal area is located in Lebak district, Banten province, about 40 km to the south of the town of Rangkasbitung. There are four manifestations of hot springs i.e: Handeuleum hot springs, Cikawah 1, Cikawah 2, and Gajrug. Based on geochemical analysis using Na-K-Mg triangular diagrams, Cl-Li-B, and Cl-SO4-HCO3, it is known that Cikawah 1 hot springs is chloride type and the other springs are bicarbonate type. Reservoir temperature range is from 162°C to 180°C are predicted by SiO2 and NaK geothermometers. In general all hot springs are out flows, but there is an hypothesis that Cikawah 1 is the up flow. Because it is in partial equilibrium and chloride type. Mount Endut has a hydrothermal system with a fluid reservoir in the form of hot water or water dominated system. The geothermal prospect area of Mount Endut is located around the Cikawah manifestation to the western part of the Endut mountain. Further research is required by conducting geophysical surveys around the Mount Endut.

AgRISTARS: Supporting research. Spring small grains planting date distribution model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T.; Artley, J. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A model was developed using 996 planting dates at 51 LANDSAT segments for spring wheat and spring barley in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in 1979. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were obtained from the cooperative weather stations nearest to each segment. The model uses a growing degree day summation modified for daily temperature range to estimate the beginning of planting and uses a soil surface wetness variable to estimate how a fixed number of planting days are distributed after planting begins. For 1979, the model predicts first, median, and last planting dates with root mean square errors of 7.91, 6.61, and 7.09 days, respectively. The model also provides three or four dates to represent periods of planting activity within the planting season. Although the full model was not tested on an independent data set, it may be suitable in areas other than the U.S. Great Plains where spring small grains are planted as soon as soil and air temperatures become warm enough in the spring for plant growth.

Can neap-spring tidal cycles modulate biogeochemical fluxes in the abyssal near-seafloor water column?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnewitsch, Robert; Dale, Andrew; Lahajnar, Niko; Lampitt, Richard S.; Sakamoto, Kei

2017-05-01

Before particulate matter that settles as 'primary flux' from the interior ocean is deposited into deep-sea sediments it has to traverse the benthic boundary layer (BBL) that is likely to cover almost all parts of the seafloor in the deep seas. Fluid dynamics in the BBL differ vastly from fluid dynamics in the overlying water column and, consequently, have the potential to lead to quantitative and compositional changes between primary and depositional fluxes. Despite this potential and the likely global relevance very little is known about mechanistic and quantitative aspects of the controlling processes. Here, results are presented for a sediment-trap time-series study that was conducted on the Porcupine Abyssal Plain in the abyssal Northeast Atlantic, with traps deployed at 2, 40 and 569 m above bottom (mab). The two bottommost traps were situated within the BBL-affected part of the water column. The time series captured 3 neap and 4 spring tides and the arrival of fresh settling material originating from a surface-ocean bloom. In the trap-collected material, total particulate matter (TPM), particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), biogenic silica (BSi), particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate nitrogen (PN), total hydrolysable amino acids (AA), hexosamines (HA) and lithogenic material (LM) were determined. The biogeochemical results are presented within the context of time series of measured currents (at 15 mab) and turbidity (at 1 mab). The main outcome is evidence for an effect of neap/spring tidal oscillations on particulate-matter dynamics in BBL-affected waters in the deep sea. Based on the frequency-decomposed current measurements and numerical modelling of BBL fluid dynamics, it is concluded that the neap/spring tidal oscillations of particulate-matter dynamics are less likely due to temporally varying total free-stream current speeds and more likely due to temporally and vertically varying turbulence intensities that result from the temporally varying interplay of different rotational flow components (residual, tidal, near-inertial) within the BBL. Using information from previously published empirical and theoretical relations between fluid and biogeochemical dynamics at the scale of individual particle aggregates, a conceptual and semi-quantitative picture of a mechanism was derived that explains how the neap/spring fluid-dynamic oscillations may translate through particle dynamics into neap/spring oscillations of biogeochemical aggregate decomposition (microbially driven organic-matter breakdown, biomineral dissolution). It is predicted that, during transitions from neap into spring tides, increased aggregation in near-seafloor waters and/or reduced deposition of aggregates at the seafloor coincides with reduced biogeochemical particulate-matter decomposition in near-seafloor waters. By contrast, during transitions from spring into neap tides, enhanced biogeochemical particulate-matter decomposition in near-seafloor waters is predicted to coincide with increased deposition of particulate matter at the seafloor. This study suggests that, in addition to current speed, the specifics and subtleties of the interplay of different rotational flow components can be an important control on how the primary flux from the interior ocean is translated into the depositional flux, with potential implications for sedimentary carbon deposition, benthic food supply and possibly even the sedimentary records of environmental change.

Spring photosynthetic recovery of boreal Norway spruce under conditions of elevated [CO(2)] and air temperature.

PubMed

Wallin, Göran; Hall, Marianne; Slaney, Michelle; Räntfors, Mats; Medhurst, Jane; Linder, Sune

2013-11-01

Accumulated carbon uptake, apparent quantum yield (AQY) and light-saturated net CO2 assimilation (Asat) were used to assess the responses of photosynthesis to environmental conditions during spring for three consecutive years. Whole-tree chambers were used to expose 40-year-old field-grown Norway spruce trees in northern Sweden to an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, [CO2], of 700 μmol CO2 mol(-1) (CE) and an air temperature (T) between 2.8 and 5.6 °C above ambient T (TE), during summer and winter. Net shoot CO2 exchange (Anet) was measured continuously on 1-year-old shoots and was used to calculate the accumulated carbon uptake and daily Asat and AQY. The accumulated carbon uptake, from 1 March to 30 June, was stimulated by 33, 44 and 61% when trees were exposed to CE, TE, and CE and TE combined, respectively. Air temperature strongly influenced the timing and extent of photosynthetic recovery expressed as AQY and Asat during the spring. Under elevated T (TE), the recovery of AQY and Asat commenced ∼10 days earlier and the activity of these parameters was significantly higher throughout the recovery period. In the absence of frost events, the photosynthetic recovery period was less than a week. However, frost events during spring slowed recovery so that full recovery could take up to 60 days to complete. Elevated [CO2] stimulated AQY and Asat on average by ∼10 and ∼50%, respectively, throughout the recovery period, but had minimal or no effect on the onset and length of the photosynthetic recovery period during the spring. However, AQY, Asat and Anet all recovered at significantly higher T (average +2.2 °C) in TE than in TA, possibly caused by acclimation or by shorter days and lower light levels during the early part of the recovery in TE compared with TA. The results suggest that predicted future climate changes will cause prominent stimulation of photosynthetic CO2 uptake in boreal Norway spruce forest during spring, mainly caused by elevated T, but also elevated [CO2]. However, the effects of elevated T may not be linearly extrapolated to future warmer climates.

Multivariate Models of Adult Pacific Salmon Returns

PubMed Central

Burke, Brian J.; Peterson, William T.; Beckman, Brian R.; Morgan, Cheryl; Daly, Elizabeth A.; Litz, Marisa

2013-01-01

Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon. PMID:23326586

Long-term tillage frequency effects on dryland soil physical and hydraulic properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term tillage influences physical, chemical, and biological properties of the soil environment and thereby crop production and quality. We evaluated the effect of long-term (> 22 years) tillage frequency [no-till (NT), spring till (ST), and fall and spring till (FST)] under continuous spring whe...

Effect of section shape on frequencies of natural oscillations of tubular springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirogov, S. P.; Chuba, A. Yu; Cherentsov, D. A.

2018-05-01

The necessity of determining the frequencies of natural oscillations of manometric tubular springs is substantiated. Based on the mathematical model and computer program, numerical experiments were performed that allowed us to reveal the effect of geometric parameters on the frequencies of free oscillations of manometric tubular springs.

Academic Motivation and Self-Regulated Learning in Predicting Academic Achievement in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çetin, Baris

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether academic motivation and academic self-regulated learning predicted students' GPAs in the Early Childhood Education Department. The study participants consisted of 166 early childhood education majors enrolled in the 2014 spring semester at Georgia Southern University, USA. Data were gathered using…

IDENTIFYING AND PREDICTING DIVING PLUME BEHAVIOR AT GROUNDWATER SITES CONTAINING MTBE: PART 1 SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDING FOR ACTIVITIES IN FY 2002

EPA Science Inventory

This work will complete work began under Identifying and Predicting Plume Diving Behavior at Groundwater Sites Containing MTBE: Part 1. As of September 2001, ORD Staff and ORD Contractors have characterized dividing MTBE plumes at Spring Green, Wisconsin; Milford, Michigan; and ...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

available at IMD Click here to go to the Special Report page Aug 2016 - IITM started experimental real-time Experimental version of GFS 10.0.0 ported to IITM & NCMRWF - February 2012 EnKF Hybrid GSI update - Spring diagnostics *Experimental* Climate Prediction Center (CPC) links... African Desk: SWFDP GFS forecasts South

Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

2013-12-01

Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern tropical Pacific SST as the high-frequency predictor and antecedent accumulated precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa as low-frequency predictors, the predicted seasonal dust activity over Saudi Arabia is well correlated with the original time series (correlation above 0.6).

MultiBLUP: improved SNP-based prediction for complex traits.

PubMed

Speed, Doug; Balding, David J

2014-09-01

BLUP (best linear unbiased prediction) is widely used to predict complex traits in plant and animal breeding, and increasingly in human genetics. The BLUP mathematical model, which consists of a single random effect term, was adequate when kinships were measured from pedigrees. However, when genome-wide SNPs are used to measure kinships, the BLUP model implicitly assumes that all SNPs have the same effect-size distribution, which is a severe and unnecessary limitation. We propose MultiBLUP, which extends the BLUP model to include multiple random effects, allowing greatly improved prediction when the random effects correspond to classes of SNPs with distinct effect-size variances. The SNP classes can be specified in advance, for example, based on SNP functional annotations, and we also provide an adaptive procedure for determining a suitable partition of SNPs. We apply MultiBLUP to genome-wide association data from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (seven diseases), and from much larger studies of celiac disease and inflammatory bowel disease, finding that it consistently provides better prediction than alternative methods. Moreover, MultiBLUP is computationally very efficient; for the largest data set, which includes 12,678 individuals and 1.5 M SNPs, the total analysis can be run on a single desktop PC in less than a day and can be parallelized to run even faster. Tools to perform MultiBLUP are freely available in our software LDAK. © 2014 Speed and Balding; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Effect of distributive mass of spring on power flow in engineering test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Meiping; Wang, Ting; Wang, Minqing; Wang, Xiao; Zhao, Xuan

2018-06-01

Mass of spring is always neglected in theoretical and simulative analysis, while it may be a significance in practical engineering. This paper is concerned with the distributive mass of a steel spring which is used as an isolator to simulate isolation performance of a water pipe in a heating system. Theoretical derivation of distributive mass effect of steel spring on vibration is presented, and multiple eigenfrequencies are obtained, which manifest that distributive mass results in extra modes and complex impedance properties. Furthermore, numerical simulation visually shows several anti-resonances of the steel spring corresponding to impedance and power flow curves. When anti-resonances emerge, the spring collects large energy which may cause damage and unexpected consequences in practical engineering and needs to be avoided. Finally, experimental tests are conducted and results show consistency with that of the simulation of the spring with distributive mass.

Investigation of Microbial Diversity in Geothermal Hot Springs in Unkeshwar, India, Based on 16S rRNA Amplicon Metagenome Sequencing.

PubMed

Mehetre, Gajanan T; Paranjpe, Aditi; Dastager, Syed G; Dharne, Mahesh S

2016-02-25

Microbial diversity in geothermal waters of the Unkeshwar hot springs in Maharashtra, India, was studied using 16S rRNA amplicon metagenomic sequencing. Taxonomic analysis revealed the presence of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Archeae, and OD1 phyla. Metabolic function prediction analysis indicated a battery of biological information systems indicating rich and novel microbial diversity, with potential biotechnological applications in this niche. Copyright © 2016 Mehetre et al.

Unlocking Diversity in Germplasm Collections via Genomic Selection: A Case Study Based on Quantitative Adult Plant Resistance to Stripe Rust in Spring Wheat.

PubMed

Muleta, Kebede T; Bulli, Peter; Zhang, Zhiwu; Chen, Xianming; Pumphrey, Michael

2017-11-01

Harnessing diversity from germplasm collections is more feasible today because of the development of lower-cost and higher-throughput genotyping methods. However, the cost of phenotyping is still generally high, so efficient methods of sampling and exploiting useful diversity are needed. Genomic selection (GS) has the potential to enhance the use of desirable genetic variation in germplasm collections through predicting the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for all traits that have been measured. Here, we evaluated the effects of various scenarios of population genetic properties and marker density on the accuracy of GEBVs in the context of applying GS for wheat ( L.) germplasm use. Empirical data for adult plant resistance to stripe rust ( f. sp. ) collected on 1163 spring wheat accessions and genotypic data based on the wheat 9K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) iSelect assay were used for various genomic prediction tests. Unsurprisingly, the results of the cross-validation tests demonstrated that prediction accuracy increased with an increase in training population size and marker density. It was evident that using all the available markers (5619) was unnecessary for capturing the trait variation in the germplasm collection, with no further gain in prediction accuracy beyond 1 SNP per 3.2 cM (∼1850 markers), which is close to the linkage disequilibrium decay rate in this population. Collectively, our results suggest that larger germplasm collections may be efficiently sampled via lower-density genotyping methods, whereas genetic relationships between the training and validation populations remain critical when exploiting GS to select from germplasm collections. Copyright © 2017 Crop Science Society of America.

Combined In-Plane and Through-the-Thickness Analysis for Failure Prediction of Bolted Composite Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kradinov, V.; Madenci, E.; Ambur, D. R.

2004-01-01

Although two-dimensional methods provide accurate predictions of contact stresses and bolt load distribution in bolted composite joints with multiple bolts, they fail to capture the effect of thickness on the strength prediction. Typically, the plies close to the interface of laminates are expected to be the most highly loaded, due to bolt deformation, and they are usually the first to fail. This study presents an analysis method to account for the variation of stresses in the thickness direction by augmenting a two-dimensional analysis with a one-dimensional through the thickness analysis. The two-dimensional in-plane solution method based on the combined complex potential and variational formulation satisfies the equilibrium equations exactly, and satisfies the boundary conditions and constraints by minimizing the total potential. Under general loading conditions, this method addresses multiple bolt configurations without requiring symmetry conditions while accounting for the contact phenomenon and the interaction among the bolts explicitly. The through-the-thickness analysis is based on the model utilizing a beam on an elastic foundation. The bolt, represented as a short beam while accounting for bending and shear deformations, rests on springs, where the spring coefficients represent the resistance of the composite laminate to bolt deformation. The combined in-plane and through-the-thickness analysis produces the bolt/hole displacement in the thickness direction, as well as the stress state in each ply. The initial ply failure predicted by applying the average stress criterion is followed by a simple progressive failure. Application of the model is demonstrated by considering single- and double-lap joints of metal plates bolted to composite laminates.

Evaluating indices of lipid and protein content in lesser snow and Ross's geese during spring migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Elisabeth B.; Fowler, Drew N.; Woodall, Brendan A.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

2018-01-01

Assessing nutrient stores in avian species is important for understanding the extent to which body condition influences success or failure in life‐history events. We evaluated predictive models using morphometric characteristics to estimate total body lipids (TBL) and total body protein (TBP), based on traditional proximate analyses, in spring migrating lesser snow geese (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) and Ross's geese (A. rossii). We also compared performance of our lipid model with a previously derived predictive equation for TBL developed for nesting lesser snow geese. We used external and internal measurements on 612 lesser snow and 125 Ross's geese collected during spring migration in 2015 and 2016 within the Central and Mississippi flyways to derive and evaluate predictive models. Using a validation data set, our best performing lipid model for snow geese better predicted TBL (root mean square error [RMSE] of 23.56) compared with a model derived from nesting individuals (RMSE = 48.60), suggesting the importance of season‐specific models for accurate lipid estimation. Models that included body mass and abdominal fat deposit best predicted TBL determined by proximate analysis in both species (lesser snow goose, R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 23.56: Ross's geese, R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 13.75). Models incorporating a combination of external structural measurements in addition to internal muscle and body mass best predicted protein values (R2 = 0.85, RMSE = 19.39 and R2 = 0.85, RMSE = 7.65, lesser snow and Ross's geese, respectively), but protein models including only body mass and body size were also competitive and provided extended utility to our equations for field applications. Therefore, our models indicated the importance of specimen dissection and measurement of the abdominal fat pad to provide the most accurate lipid estimates and provide alternative dissection‐free methods for estimating protein.

A rheological model for immersed corrugated elastic plates.

PubMed

Meier, D; Franklin, H; Predoi, M V; Rousseau, M; Izbicki, J L

2017-03-01

The influence of surface imperfections on the propagation of guided waves in an immersed elastic plate can be interpreted by means of a rheological model. The corrugated surface is modeled by a very thin interface, similar to a Jones spring model, which replaces the continuity boundary conditions at the liquid - corrugated solid-plate interface. As the surrounding liquid is considered to be perfect, only one complex stiffness is used for the model of Jones. The selection of the plate guided mode and the test frequency are motivated by the detectability and non-interference with other modes. The spring stiffness is obtained by a best fit procedure, between the analytical solution and the results obtained by the finite elements method (FEM). One way ensuring the agreement of the two approaches, rheological and FEM, is to consider angular resonances provided by the transmission coefficients. Small changes in the parameters of the roughness keep the positions of the angular resonances of the plate practically unchanged, while at the same time large variations of the half width of the transmission coefficient curve is observed. The effect of corrugation parameters on the guided modes in the plate can be predicted by using the rheological model with the deduced spring complex stiffness. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Steady states and linear stability analysis of precipitation pattern formation at geothermal hot springs.

PubMed

Chan, Pak Yuen; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2007-10-01

A dynamical theory of geophysical precipitation pattern formation is presented and applied to irreversible calcium carbonate (travertine) deposition. Specific systems studied here are the terraces and domes observed at geothermal hot springs, such as those at Yellowstone National Park, and speleothems, particularly stalactites and stalagmites. The theory couples the precipitation front dynamics with shallow water flow, including corrections for turbulent drag and curvature effects. In the absence of capillarity and with a laminar flow profile, the theory predicts a one-parameter family of steady state solutions to the moving boundary problem describing the precipitation front. These shapes match the measured shapes near the vent at the top of observed travertine domes well. Closer to the base of the dome, the solutions deviate from observations and circular symmetry is broken by a fluting pattern, which we show is associated with capillary forces causing thin film break-up. We relate our model to that recently proposed for stalactite growth, and calculate the linear stability spectrum of both travertine domes and stalactites. Lastly, we apply the theory to the problem of precipitation pattern formation arising from turbulent flow down an inclined plane and identify a linear instability that underlies scale-invariant travertine terrace formation at geothermal hot springs.

Steady states and linear stability analysis of precipitation pattern formation at geothermal hot springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Pak Yuen; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2007-10-01

A dynamical theory of geophysical precipitation pattern formation is presented and applied to irreversible calcium carbonate (travertine) deposition. Specific systems studied here are the terraces and domes observed at geothermal hot springs, such as those at Yellowstone National Park, and speleothems, particularly stalactites and stalagmites. The theory couples the precipitation front dynamics with shallow water flow, including corrections for turbulent drag and curvature effects. In the absence of capillarity and with a laminar flow profile, the theory predicts a one-parameter family of steady state solutions to the moving boundary problem describing the precipitation front. These shapes match the measured shapes near the vent at the top of observed travertine domes well. Closer to the base of the dome, the solutions deviate from observations and circular symmetry is broken by a fluting pattern, which we show is associated with capillary forces causing thin film break-up. We relate our model to that recently proposed for stalactite growth, and calculate the linear stability spectrum of both travertine domes and stalactites. Lastly, we apply the theory to the problem of precipitation pattern formation arising from turbulent flow down an inclined plane and identify a linear instability that underlies scale-invariant travertine terrace formation at geothermal hot springs.

Predicted water-level and water-quality effects of artificial recharge in the Upper Coachella Valley, California, using a finite-element digital model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Lindsay A.

1978-01-01

From 1936 to 1974, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the Palm Springs area and 60 feet in the Palm Desert area of the upper Coachella Valley, Calif. Water from the Colorado River Aqueduct is presently being recharged to the basin. The dissolved-solids concentration of native ground water in the recharge area is about 210 mg/liter and that of recharge water ranges from 600 to 750 mg/liter. A finite-element model indicates that without recharge the 1974 water levels in the Palm Springs area will decline 200 feet by the year 2000 because of pumpage. If the aquifer is recharged at a rate from about 7 ,500 acre-feet per year in 1973 increasing to 61,200 acre-feet per year in 1990 and thereafter, the water level in the Palm Springs area will decline about 20 feet below the 1974 level by 1991 and recover to the 1974 level by 2000. The solute-transport finite-element model of the recharge area indicates that the artificial recharge plume (bounded by the 300-mg/liter line) will move about 1.1 miles downgradient of the recharge ponds by 1981 and about 4.5 miles from the ponds by 2000. 

Perceptions of Relatedness with Classroom Peers Promote Adolescents’ Behavioral Engagement and Achievement in Secondary School

PubMed Central

Mikami, Amori Yee; Ruzek, Erik A.; Hafen, Christopher A.; Gregory, Anne; Allen, Joseph P.

2017-01-01

Secondary school is a vulnerable time where stagnation or declines in classroom behavioral engagement occur for many students, and peer relationships take on a heightened significance. We examined the implications of adolescents’ perceptions of relatedness with classroom peers for their academic learning. Participants were 1084 adolescents (53% female) in 65 middle and high school classrooms. Multilevel cross-lagged path analyses found that adolescents’ perceived relatedness with classroom peers subsequently predicted their increased self-reported behavioral engagement in that classroom from fall to winter and again from winter to spring. Higher engagement in spring predicted higher end of year objective achievement test scores after statistical control of prior year test scores. Implications are discussed for increasing classroom peer relatedness to enhance adolescents’ achievement. PMID:28755252

The Temporal Association Between Traditional and Cyber Dating Abuse Among Adolescents.

PubMed

Temple, Jeff R; Choi, Hye Jeong; Brem, Meagan; Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Stuart, Gregory L; Peskin, Melissa Fleschler; Elmquist, JoAnna

2016-02-01

While research has explored adolescents' use of technology to perpetrate dating violence, little is known about how traditional in-person and cyber abuse are linked, and no studies have examined their relationship over time. Using our sample of 780 diverse adolescents (58 % female), we found that traditional and cyber abuse were positively associated, and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization were correlated at each time point. Cyber abuse perpetration in the previous year (spring 2013) predicted cyber abuse perpetration 1 year later (spring 2014), while controlling for traditional abuse and demographic variables. In addition, physical violence victimization and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization predicted cyber abuse victimization the following year. These findings highlight the reciprocal nature of cyber abuse and suggest that victims may experience abuse in multiple contexts.

The Temporal Association between Traditional and Cyber Dating Abuse among Adolescents

PubMed Central

Temple, Jeff R.; Choi, Hye Jeong; Brem, Meagan; Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Stuart, Gregory L.; Peskin, Melissa Fleschler; Elmquist, JoAnna

2015-01-01

While research has explored adolescents’ use of technology to perpetrate dating violence, little is known about how traditional in-person and cyber abuse are linked, and no studies have examined their relationship over time. Using our sample of 780 diverse adolescents (58% female), we found that traditional and cyber abuse were positively associated, and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization were correlated at each time point. Cyber abuse perpetration in the previous year (spring 2013) predicted cyber abuse perpetration one year later (spring 2014), while controlling for traditional abuse and demographic variables. In addition, physical violence victimization and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization predicted cyber abuse victimization the following year. These findings highlight the reciprocal nature of cyber abuse and suggest that victims may experience abuse in multiple contexts. PMID:26525389

Optical spring effect in nanoelectromechanical systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Feng; Zhou, Guangya, E-mail: mpezgy@nus.edu.sg; Du, Yu

2014-08-11

In this Letter, we report a hybrid system consisting of nano-optical and nano-mechanical springs, in which the optical spring effect works to adjust the mechanical frequency of a nanoelectromechanical systems resonator. Nano-scale folded beams are fabricated as the mechanical springs and double-coupled one-dimensional photonic crystal cavities are used to pump the “optical spring.” The dynamic characteristics of this hybrid system are measured and analyzed at both low and high input optical powers. This study leads the physical phenomenon of optomechanics in complex nano-opto-electro-mechanical systems (NOEMS) and could benefit the future applications of NOEMS in chip-level communication and sensing.

Sex on the beach: the influence of social norms and trip companion on spring break sexual behavior.

PubMed

Lewis, Melissa A; Patrick, Megan E; Mittmann, Angela; Kaysen, Debra L

2014-06-01

Spring Break trips are associated with heavy drinking and with risky sexual behavior (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, unwanted sexual contact), especially for those students who go on trips with friends. The present study adds to this growing event-specific risk literature by examining Spring Break-specific normative perceptions of sexual risk behavior and the role that these perceptions and taking a trip with a friend or with a romantic partner have on Spring Break sexual behavior. College students (N = 1,540; 53.9 % female) were asked to report descriptive normative perceptions of sex with casual partners, drinking prior to sex, number of drinks prior to sex, and condom use as well as their own Spring Break drinking and sexual behaviors. Students perceived the typical same-sex student to have engaged in more frequent sexual behavior for all outcomes than students' own self-reported sexual behavior. Furthermore, results revealed that these perceptions were positively associated with behavior. The choice of travel companion (friend(s) versus romantic partner) also differentially predicted sexual behaviors. Results suggested that intervention efforts aimed at reducing risks for Spring Break trip-takers may be strongest when they incorporate corrective normative information and target those traveling with friends.

Sex on the Beach: The Influence of Social Norms and Trip Companion on Spring Break Sexual Behavior

PubMed Central

Lewis, Melissa A.; Patrick, Megan E.; Mittmann, Angela; Kaysen, Debra L.

2014-01-01

Spring Break trips are associated with heavy drinking and with risky sexual behavior (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, unwanted sexual contact), especially for those students who go on trips with friends. The present study adds to this growing event-specific risk literature by examining Spring Break-specific normative perceptions of sexual risk behavior and the role that these perceptions and taking a trip with a friend or with a romantic partner have on Spring Break sexual behavior. College students (N = 1,540; 53.9% female) were asked to report descriptive normative perceptions of sex with casual partners, drinking prior to sex, number of drinks prior to sex, and condom use as well as their own Spring Break drinking and sexual behaviors. Students perceived the typical same-sex student to have engaged in more frequent sexual behavior for all outcomes than students’ own self-reported sexual behavior. Furthermore, results revealed that these perceptions were positively associated with behavior. The choice of travel companion (friend(s) vs. romantic partner) also deferentially predicted sexual behaviors. Results suggested that intervention efforts aimed at reducing risks for Spring Break trip-takers may be strongest when they incorporate corrective normative information and target those traveling with friends. PMID:24464322

The effect of pre spring spray to reduce of citrus important pests.

PubMed

Hashemi, B; Damavandian, M R; Shoushtaril, R Vafaei; Tafaghodynia, B

2008-10-01

The importance of pre spring spray against citrus aphids, Pulvinaria aurantii Cockerell and Panonychus citri McGregor that are the most important pest of citrus during spring was tested. In this research, 150 trees ten years old sweet orange (Thomson navel on Citrus aurantium (root stocks)) in a citrus orchard approximately three hectares sampled. The experiment was laid out in a totally randomized (one-way) design replicated five times. According to the results, the pre spring spray do not effect on population density of citrus aphids and P. aurantii during March, April, May and June. However, the P. citri population decreased. Therefore, it seems the pre spring spray in citrus orchards is not necessary, but if P. citri is observed, the pre spring spray should be recommended.

Ecological effects of spring and late summer applications of lambda-cyhalothrin on freshwater microcosms.

PubMed

Van Wijngaarden, R P A; Brock, T C M; van den Brink, P J; Gylstra, R; Maund, S J

2006-02-01

The aim of the study was to compare the effects of the pyrethroid insecticide lambda-cyhalothrin (treated at 10, 25, 50, 100, 250 ng active ingredient a.i./L) on a drainage ditch ecosystem in spring and late summer. Microcosms (water volume approximately 430 L) were established using enclosures in a 50-cm-deep experimental ditch system containing communities typical of macrophyte-dominated freshwater ecosystems. Effects on macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton, macrophytes, and community metabolism were assessed and evaluated using univariate and multivariate statistical techniques. The macroinvertebrate community responded most clearly to treatment and, as anticipated, insects and crustaceans were among the most sensitive organisms. Statistical analysis showed that the underlying community structure was significantly different between the spring and summer experiments. However, the most sensitive species (Chaoborus obscuripes and Gammarus pulex) were abundant in spring as well as in late summer. In spring and late summer, only slight and transient effects were observed at the community level in the 10-ng/L treatment. Overall, the study did not show substantial differences in the responses of sensitive taxa between spring and late summer treatments, and effects thresholds were similar irrespective of season of treatment.

Revisiting the extended spring indices using gridded weather data and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehdipoor, Hamed; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Emma; Zurita-Milla, Raul

2016-04-01

The extended spring indices or SI-x [1] have been successfully used to predict the timing of spring onset at continental scales. The SI-x models were created by combining lilac and honeysuckle volunteered phenological observations, temperature data (from weather stations) and latitudinal information. More precisely, these models use a linear regression to predict the day of year of first leaf and first bloom for these two indicator species. In this contribution we revisit both the data and the method used to calibrate the SI-x models to check whether the addition of new input data or the use of non-linear regression methods could lead to improments in the model outputs. In particular, we use a recently published dataset [2] of volunteered observations on cloned and common lilac over longer period of time (1980-2014) and we replace the weather station data by 54 features derived from Daymet [3], which provides 1 by 1 km gridded estimates of daily weather parameters (maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, water vapor pressure, solar radiation, day length, snow water equivalent) for North America. These features consist of both daily weather values and their long- and short-term accumulations and elevation. we also replace the original linear regression by a non-linear method. Specifically, we use random forests to both identify the most important features and to predict the day of year of the first leaf of cloned and common lilacs. Preliminary results confirm the importance of the SI-x features (maximum and minimum temperatures and day length). However, our results show that snow water equivalent and water vapor pressure are also necessary to properly model leaf onset. Regarding the predictions, our results indicate that Random Forests yield comparable results to those produced by the SI-x models (in terms of root mean square error -RMSE). For cloned and common lilac, the models predict the day of year of leafing with 16 and 15 days of accuracy respectively. Further research should focus on extensively comparing the features used by both modelling approaches and on analyzing spring onset patterns over continental United States. References 1. Schwartz, M.D., T.R. Ault, and J.L. Betancourt, Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices. International Journal of Climatology, 2013. 33(13): p. 2917-2922. 2. Rosemartin, A.H., et al., Lilac and honeysuckle phenology data 1956-2014. Scientific Data, 2015. 2: p. 150038. 3. Thornton, P.E., et al. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 2. 2014.

Projectile Motion Details.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnick, Jeffrey W.

1994-01-01

Presents an exercise that attempts to correct for the common discrepancies between theoretical and experimental predictions concerning projectile motion using a spring-loaded projectile ball launcher. Includes common correction factors for student use. (MVL)

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Sato, Makiko

1992-01-01

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Impacts of climate change on spring flower tourism in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huanjiong

2016-04-01

The beauty of blooming flowers causes spring to be one of the most picturesque and pleasant seasons in which to travel. However, the blooming time of plant species are very sensitive to small changes in climate. Therefore, recent climate change may shift flowering time and, as a result, may affect timing of spring tourism for tourists. In order to prove this assumption, we gathered data of first flowering date and end of flowering date (1963-2014) for 49 common ornamental plants in Beijing, China. In addition, we used the number of messages (2010-2014) posted on Sina Weibo (one of the most popular microblogs sites in China, in use by well over 30% of internet users, with a market penetration similar to the United States' Twitter) to indicate the tourist numbers of five scenic spots in Beijing. These spots are most famous places for seeing spring flowers, including the Summer Palace, Yuyuantan Park, Beijing Botanical Garden, Jingshan Park, Dadu City Wall Relics Park. The results showed that the number of species in flower starts to increase in early spring and peaks in middle spring, and then begins to decrease from late spring. The date when the number of species in flower peaks can be defined as best date of spring flower tourism, because on this day people can see blooming flowers of most plant species. The best date of spring flower tourism varied from March 31 to May 1 among years with a mean of April 20. At above scenic spots characterized by the beauty of blooming flowers, tourist numbers also had a peak value during spring. Furthermore, peak time of tourist numbers derived from Weibo varied among different years and was related to best date of spring flower tour derived from phenological data. This suggests that the time of spring outing for tourists is remarkably attracted by flowering phenology. From 1963 to 2014, the best date of spring flower tour became earlier at a rate of 1.6 days decade-1, but the duration for spring flower tour (defined as width at midpoint of frequency distribution curve) kept stable. The best date of spring flower tourism was significantly correlated with spring temperature (R=-0.66, P<0.01), with an increase in spring temperature of 1 °C causing the best date earlier by 4.0 days. In the context of future global warming, it is crucial to enhance the ability to predict flowering time, so as to provide reference for tourism administrators and the tourists to make better tourism arrangements.

Normal Stresses, Contraction, and Stiffening in Sheared Elastic Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgarten, Karsten; Tighe, Brian P.

2018-04-01

When elastic solids are sheared, a nonlinear effect named after Poynting gives rise to normal stresses or changes in volume. We provide a novel relation between the Poynting effect and the microscopic Grüneisen parameter, which quantifies how stretching shifts vibrational modes. By applying this relation to random spring networks, a minimal model for, e.g., biopolymer gels and solid foams, we find that networks contract or develop tension because they vibrate faster when stretched. The amplitude of the Poynting effect is sensitive to the network's linear elastic moduli, which can be tuned via its preparation protocol and connectivity. Finally, we show that the Poynting effect can be used to predict the finite strain scale where the material stiffens under shear.

Hydrological response and thermal effect of karst springs linked to aquifer geometry and recharge processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Mingming; Chen, Zhihua; Zhou, Hong; Zhang, Liang; Han, Zhaofeng

2018-03-01

To be better understand the hydrological and thermal behavior of karst systems in South China, seasonal variations in flow, hydrochemistry and stable isotope ratios of five karst springs were used to delineate flow paths and recharge processes, and to interpret their thermal response. Isotopic data suggest that mean recharge elevations are 200-820 m above spring outlets. Springs that originate from high elevations have lower NO3 - concentrations than those originating from lower areas that have more agricultural activity. Measured Sr2+ concentrations reflect the strontium contents of the host carbonate aquifer and help delineate the spring catchment's saturated zone. Seasonal variations of NO3 - and Sr2+ concentrations are inversely correlated, because the former correlates with event water and the latter with baseflow. The mean annual water temperatures of springs were only slightly lower than the local mean annual surface temperature at the outlet elevations. These mean spring temperatures suggest a vertical gradient of 6 °C/vertical km, which resembles the adiabatic lapse rate of the Earth's stable atmosphere. Seasonal temperature variations in the springs are in phase with surface air temperatures, except for Heilongquan (HLQ) spring. Event-scale variations of thermal response are dramatically controlled by the circulation depth of karst systems, which determines the effectiveness of heat exchange. HLQ spring undergoes the deepest circulation depth of 820 m, and its thermal responses are determined by the thermally effective regulation processes at higher elevations and the mixing processes associated with thermally ineffective responses at lower elevations.

Non-growing season nitrous oxide fluxes from agricultural soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariyapperuma Athukoralage, Kumudinie

A two-year field experiment was conducted at the Arkell Research Station, Ontario, Canada to evaluate composting as a mitigation strategy for greenhouse gases (GHGs). The objectives were to quantify and compare non-growing season nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes from agricultural soils after fall manure application of composted and untreated liquid swine manure. Nitrous oxide fluxes were measured using a micrometeorological method. Compared to untreated liquid swine manure (LSM), composted swine manure (CSM) resulted in 57% reduction of soil N2O emissions during February to April in 2005, but emissions during the same period in 2006 were not affected by treatments. This effect was related to fall and winter weather conditions with the significant reduction occurring in the year when soil freezing was more pronounced. The DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition) model was tested against data measured during the non-growing seasons from 2000 to 2004, for farming with conventional management at the Elora Research Station, Ontario, Canada. The objective was to assess the ability of the DNDC model to simulate non-growing season N2O fluxes from soils in southwestern Ontario. Comparison between model-simulated and measured data indicated that background fluxes were relatively well predicted. The spring thaw N2O flux event was correctly timed by the DNDC model, but was smaller than the measured spring thaw event. Though there was no N2O emission event measured in early May, the DNDC model predicted a large event, simultaneous with the physical release of predicted ice-trapped N2O. Removing the large and late predicted emission peak and increasing the contribution of newly produced N2O due to denitrification to the early spring thaw event were proposed. Three data sets from studies conducted in Ontario, Canada were used to estimate and compare the overall GHG (N2O and methane) emissions from LSM and CSM. Compared to LSM storage, the composting process reduced GHG emissions by 35% (CO2-eq), mainly due to decreased methane fluxes. Land application of CSM showed a 38% reduction of total GHGs (CO 2-eq), compared to fall application of LSM. In comparison to liquid swine manure management systems, aerobic composting reduced the overall GHG emissions on a CO2-equivalent basis by 35%.

Carbonate ion-enriched hot spring water promotes skin wound healing in nude rats.

PubMed

Liang, Jingyan; Kang, Dedong; Wang, Yingge; Yu, Ying; Fan, Jianglin; Takashi, En

2015-01-01

Hot spring or hot spa bathing (Onsen) is a traditional therapy for the treatment of certain ailments. There is a common belief that hot spring bathing has therapeutic effects for wound healing, yet the underlying molecular mechanisms remain unclear. To examine this hypothesis, we investigated the effects of Nagano hot spring water (rich in carbonate ion, 42°C) on the healing process of the skin using a nude rat skin wound model. We found that hot spring bathing led to an enhanced healing speed compared to both the unbathed and hot-water (42°C) control groups. Histologically, the hot spring water group showed increased vessel density and reduced inflammatory cells in the granulation tissue of the wound area. Real-time RT-PCR analysis along with zymography revealed that the wound area of the hot spring water group exhibited a higher expression of matrix metalloproteinases-2 and -9 compared to the two other control groups. Furthermore, we found that the enhanced wound healing process induced by the carbonate ion-enriched hot spring water was mediated by thermal insulation and moisture maintenance. Our results provide the evidence that carbonate ion-enriched hot spring water is beneficial for the treatment of skin wounds.

Enhanced oxidative capacity of ground squirrel brain mitochondria during hibernation

PubMed Central

Ballinger, Mallory A.; Schwartz, Christine

2017-01-01

During hibernation, thirteen-lined ground squirrels (Ictidomys tridecemlineatus) regularly cycle between bouts of torpor and interbout arousal (IBA). Most of the brain is electrically quiescent during torpor but regains activity quickly upon arousal to IBA, resulting in extreme oscillations in energy demand during hibernation. We predicted increased functional capacity of brain mitochondria during hibernation compared with spring to accommodate the variable energy demands of hibernation. To address this hypothesis, we examined mitochondrial bioenergetics in the ground squirrel brain across three time points: spring (SP), torpor (TOR), and IBA. Respiration rates of isolated brain mitochondria through complex I of the electron transport chain were more than twofold higher in TOR and IBA than in SP (P < 0.05). We also found a 10% increase in membrane potential between hibernation and spring (P < 0.05), and that proton leak was lower in TOR and IBA than in SP. Finally, there was a 30% increase in calcium loading in SP brain mitochondria compared with TOR and IBA (P < 0.01). To analyze brain mitochondrial abundance between spring and hibernation, we measured the ratio of copy number in a mitochondrial gene (ND1) vs. a nuclear gene (B2M) in frozen cerebral cortex samples. No significant differences were observed in DNA copies between SP and IBA. These data show that brain mitochondrial bioenergetics are not static across the year and suggest that brain mitochondria function more effectively during the hibernation season, allowing for rapid production of energy to meet demand when extreme physiological changes are occurring. PMID:28077389

Statistical Mining of Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shen, S. P.

2001-01-01

Results from a new ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction model yield a remarkable (10-20%) increases in baseline prediction skills for seasonal precipitation over the US for all seasons, compared to traditional statistical predictions. While the tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, contributes to the largest share of potential predictability in the southern tier States during boreal winter, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced predictability in the northern Great Plains, Midwest and the southwest US during boreal summer. Most importantly, ECC significantly reduces the spring predictability barrier over the conterminous US, thereby raising the skill bar for dynamical predictions.

Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

2015-01-01

In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children…

The Predictive Validity of a Computer-Adaptive Assessment of Kindergarten and First-Grade Reading Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clemens, Nathan H.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Luo, Wen; Cerda, Carissa; Blakely, Alane; Frosch, Jennifer; Gamez-Patience, Brenda; Jones, Meredith

2015-01-01

This study examined the predictive validity of a computer-adaptive assessment for measuring kindergarten reading skills using the STAR Early Literacy (SEL) test. The findings showed that the results of SEL assessments administered during the fall, winter, and spring of kindergarten were moderate and statistically significant predictors of year-end…

The influence of changing seasonality and snow cover on arctic ground squirrel phenology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, B.; Sheriff, M.; Kenagy, J.; Buck, L.; Team Squirrel

2011-12-01

A warming climate in the Arctic may have asymmetrical effects on seasonality, depending on the timing and extent of snow cover. Warm autumns that delay the onset of persistent snow cover will lengthen growing seasons of some plants and, combined with continuing access to fallen seeds, berries, and leaves, extend feeding opportunities for ground foragers. Warming in spring should advance when the ground becomes snow free and the onset of plant productivity, leading overall to a longer growing season. However, if winter and spring precipitation increase, as is predicted in climate models, the amount and seasonal extent of snow pack will increase, which will delay melt and lead to delayed springs. Either of these scenarios may develop regionally, depending on local weather, snow, and wind. Since 1996, we have been investigating the timing of annual events in natural populations of arctic ground squirrels, Urocitellus parryii, living at two nearby sites (Toolik and Atigun, 68o38'N) in arctic Alaska that greatly differ in timing and duration of snow cover. Since arctic ground squirrels are highly dependent on snow free ground for foraging, we predicted that these environmental differences will have had major impacts on life histories and timing of annual events on the local populations. Precision in dates of the beginning and end of hibernation, use of heterothermy, and birth of young were determined by temperature-sensitive data loggers implanted into juvenile and adult animals of both sexes. Weather stations, snow cameras, and transects for plant phenology are in place at both locations, although record lengths differ. While across the past 15 years annual timing of hibernation and breeding has not shown significant trends at either site, the two populations have differed consistently in hibernation timing and length of active season, and they show a 13 day difference in average timing of reproduction. These results reveal a substantial flexibility of timing of the annual cycle in ground squirrel populations in response to local conditions. Current trends of change in weather show an increase in active season temperatures at Atigun but snowier springs at Toolik. We predict that if these trends continue, further separation in annual timing will develop between the two populations with negative impacts on survival and population density at Toolik and positive impacts at Atigun. In addition, to test for the pace of additional flexibility and gender specific differences in annual timing, we have begun a food addition experiment at Atigun that extends foraging opportunities in autumn.

Quantitative Determination of Spring Water Quality Parameters via Electronic Tongue

PubMed Central

Carbó, Noèlia; López Carrero, Javier; Garcia-Castillo, F. Javier; Olivas, Estela; Folch, Elisa; Alcañiz Fillol, Miguel; Soto, Juan

2017-01-01

The use of a voltammetric electronic tongue for the quantitative analysis of quality parameters in spring water is proposed here. The electronic voltammetric tongue consisted of a set of four noble electrodes (iridium, rhodium, platinum, and gold) housed inside a stainless steel cylinder. These noble metals have a high durability and are not demanding for maintenance, features required for the development of future automated equipment. A pulse voltammetry study was conducted in 83 spring water samples to determine concentrations of nitrate (range: 6.9–115 mg/L), sulfate (32–472 mg/L), fluoride (0.08–0.26 mg/L), chloride (17–190 mg/L), and sodium (11–94 mg/L) as well as pH (7.3–7.8). These parameters were also determined by routine analytical methods in spring water samples. A partial least squares (PLS) analysis was run to obtain a model to predict these parameter. Orthogonal signal correction (OSC) was applied in the preprocessing step. Calibration (67%) and validation (33%) sets were selected randomly. The electronic tongue showed good predictive power to determine the concentrations of nitrate, sulfate, chloride, and sodium as well as pH and displayed a lower R2 and slope in the validation set for fluoride. Nitrate and fluoride concentrations were estimated with errors lower than 15%, whereas chloride, sulfate, and sodium concentrations as well as pH were estimated with errors below 10%. PMID:29295592

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies.

PubMed

Betti, M I; Wahl, L M; Zamir, M

2016-11-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of 'spring dwindle', which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.

Appearance of the two-way shape-memory effect in a nitinol spring subjected to temperature and deformation cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manjavidze, A. G.; Barnov, V. A.; Jorjishvili, L. I.; Sobolevskaya, S. V.

2008-03-01

The properties of a cylindrical spiral spring of nitinol (shape-memory alloy) are studied. When this spring is used as a working element in a rotary martensitic engine, the appearance of the two-way shape-memory effect in it is shown to decrease the engine operation efficiency.

The effect of linear spring number at side load of McPherson suspension in electric city car

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budi, Sigit Setijo; Suprihadi, Agus; Makhrojan, Agus; Ismail, Rifky; Jamari, J.

2017-01-01

The function of the spring suspension on Mc Pherson type is to control vehicle stability and increase ride convenience although having tendencies of side load presence. The purpose of this study is to obtain simulation results of Mc Pherson suspension spring in the electric city car by using the finite element method and determining the side load that appears on the spring suspension. This research is conducted in several stages; they are linear spring designing models with various spring coil and spring suspension modeling using FEM software. Suspension spring is compressed in the vertical direction (z-axis) and at the upper part of the suspension springs will be seen the force that arises towards the x, y, and z-axis to simulate the side load arising on the upper part of the spring. The results of FEM simulation that the side load on the spring toward the x and y-axis which the value gets close to zero is the most stable spring.

Spring predictability explains different leaf-out strategies in the woody floras of North America, Europe and East Asia.

PubMed

Zohner, Constantin M; Benito, Blas M; Fridley, Jason D; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S

2017-04-01

Intuitively, interannual spring temperature variability (STV) should influence the leaf-out strategies of temperate zone woody species, with high winter chilling requirements in species from regions where spring warming varies greatly among years. We tested this hypothesis using experiments in 215 species and leaf-out monitoring in 1585 species from East Asia (EA), Europe (EU) and North America (NA). The results reveal that species from regions with high STV indeed have higher winter chilling requirements, and, when grown under the same conditions, leaf out later than related species from regions with lower STV. Since 1900, STV has been consistently higher in NA than in EU and EA, and under experimentally short winter conditions NA species required 84% more spring warming for bud break, EU ones 49% and EA ones only 1%. These previously unknown continental-scale differences in phenological strategies underscore the need for considering regional climate histories in global change models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Five-year growth trajectories of kindergarten children with learning difficulties in mathematics.

PubMed

Morgan, Paul L; Farkas, George; Qiong Wu

2009-01-01

The investigators used data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K) to estimate whether and to what extent the timing and persistence of mathematics difficulties (MD) in kindergarten predicted children's first through fifth grade math growth trajectories. Results indicated that children persistently displaying MD (i.e., those experiencing MD in both fall and spring of kindergarten) had the lowest subsequent growth rates, children with MD in spring only had the second-lowest growth rates, and children with MD in the fall only (and who had thus recovered from their MD by the spring of kindergarten) had the next-lowest growth rates. The children who did not have MD in either fall or spring of kindergarten had the highest growth rates. These results were observed prior to and after statistical control for additional variables. They indicate that measuring the timing and persistence of kindergarten children's mathematics learning difficulties may help identify those most at risk for failing to become mathematically proficient during elementary school.

Vibration computer programs E13101, E13102, E13104, and E13112 and application to the NERVA program. Project 187: Methodology documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mironenko, G.

1972-01-01

Programs for the analyses of the free or forced, undamped vibrations of one or two elastically-coupled lumped parameter teams are presented. Bearing nonlinearities, casing and rotor distributed mass and elasticity, rotor imbalance, forcing functions, gyroscopic moments, rotary inertia, and shear and flexural deformations are all included in the system dynamics analysis. All bearings have nonlinear load displacement characteristics, the solution is achieved by iteration. Rotor imbalances allowed by such considerations as pilot tolerances and runouts as well as bearing clearances (allowing concail or cylindrical whirl) determine the forcing function magnitudes. The computer programs first obtain a solution wherein the bearings are treated as linear springs of given spring rates. Then, based upon the computed bearing reactions, new spring rates are predicted and another solution of the modified system is made. The iteration is continued until the changes to bearing spring rates and bearing reactions become negligibly small.

US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang-Ki; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Enfield, David B.; Weaver, Scott J.; Wang, Chunzai; Atlas, Robert

2016-04-01

Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. We show that the four dominant springtime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Niño and resurgent versus transitioning La Niña) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.

Influence of Molecular Resolution on Sequence-Based Discovery of Ecological Diversity among Synechococcus Populations in an Alkaline Siliceous Hot Spring Microbial Mat ▿ †

PubMed Central

Melendrez, Melanie C.; Lange, Rachel K.; Cohan, Frederick M.; Ward, David M.

2011-01-01

Previous research has shown that sequences of 16S rRNA genes and 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer regions may not have enough genetic resolution to define all ecologically distinct Synechococcus populations (ecotypes) inhabiting alkaline, siliceous hot spring microbial mats. To achieve higher molecular resolution, we studied sequence variation in three protein-encoding loci sampled by PCR from 60°C and 65°C sites in the Mushroom Spring mat (Yellowstone National Park, WY). Sequences were analyzed using the ecotype simulation (ES) and AdaptML algorithms to identify putative ecotypes. Between 4 and 14 times more putative ecotypes were predicted from variation in protein-encoding locus sequences than from variation in 16S rRNA and 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer sequences. The number of putative ecotypes predicted depended on the number of sequences sampled and the molecular resolution of the locus. Chao estimates of diversity indicated that few rare ecotypes were missed. Many ecotypes hypothesized by sequence analyses were different in their habitat specificities, suggesting different adaptations to temperature or other parameters that vary along the flow channel. PMID:21169433

Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arkle, Robert S.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.

2012-01-01

We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1–3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286–5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

PubMed Central

Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. PMID:29099842

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

Hall Effect Thruster Ground Testing Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-18

the specic impulse, g is Earth’s gravitational constant, η is the thrust efficiency, ṁ is the propellant...lines form a composite spring with an effective spring constant of K . The thruster displaces the inverted pendulum a distance x, and the thrust stand...destabilizing force as shown in Eqn. 5. x = T K − Mgh (5) The effective spring constant is adjusted such that the unstable condition of K = Mg/h is avoided,

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2015-06-02

Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

Resistance to alveolar shape change limits range of force propagation in lung parenchyma.

PubMed

Ma, Baoshun; Smith, Bradford J; Bates, Jason H T

2015-06-01

We have recently shown that if the lung parenchyma is modeled in 2 dimensions as a network of springs arranged in a pattern of repeating hexagonal cells, the distortional forces around a contracting airway propagate much further from the airway wall than classic continuum theory predicts. In the present study we tested the hypothesis that this occurs because of the negligible shear modulus of a hexagonal spring network. We simulated the narrowing of an airway embedded in a hexagonal network of elastic alveolar walls when the hexagonal cells of the network offered some resistance to a change in shape. We found that as the forces resisting shape change approach about 10% of the forces resisting length change of an individual spring the range of distortional force propagation in the spring network fell of rapidly as in an elastic continuum. We repeated these investigations in a 3-dimensional spring network composed of space-filling polyhedral cells and found similar results. This suggests that force propagation away from a point of local parenchymal distortion also falls off rapidly in real lung tissue. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large Scale Variability of Phytoplankton Blooms in the Arctic and Peripheral Seas: Relationships with Sea Ice, Temperature, Clouds, and Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Cota, Glenn F.

2004-01-01

Spatially detailed satellite data of mean color, sea ice concentration, surface temperature, clouds, and wind have been analyzed to quantify and study the large scale regional and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic and peripheral seas from 1998 to 2002. In the Arctic basin, phytoplankton chlorophyll displays a large symmetry with the Eastern Arctic having about fivefold higher concentrations than those of the Western Arctic. Large monthly and yearly variability is also observed in the peripheral seas with the largest blooms occurring in the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, and the Barents Sea during spring. There is large interannual and seasonal variability in biomass with average chlorophyll concentrations in 2002 and 2001 being higher than earlier years in spring and summer. The seasonality in the latitudinal distribution of blooms is also very different such that the North Atlantic is usually most expansive in spring while the North Pacific is more extensive in autumn. Environmental factors that influence phytoplankton growth were examined, and results show relatively high negative correlation with sea ice retreat and strong positive correlation with temperature in early spring. Plankton growth, as indicated by biomass accumulation, in the Arctic and subarctic increases up to a threshold surface temperature of about 276-277 degree K (3-4 degree C) beyond which the concentrations start to decrease suggesting an optimal temperature or nutrient depletion. The correlation with clouds is significant in some areas but negligible in other areas, while the correlations with wind speed and its components are generally weak. The effects of clouds and winds are less predictable with weekly climatologies because of unknown effects of averaging variable and intermittent physical forcing (e.g. over storm event scales with mixing and upwelling of nutrients) and the time scales of acclimation by the phytoplankton.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hudson, W.G.

Scapteriscus vicinus is the most important pest of turf and pasture grasses in Florida. This study develops a method of correlating sample results with true population density and provides the first quantitative information on spatial distribution and movement patterns of mole crickets. Three basic techniques for sampling mole crickets were compared: soil flushes, soil corer, and pitfall trapping. No statistical difference was found between the soil corer and soil flushing. Soil flushing was shown to be more sensitive to changes in population density than pitfall trapping. No technique was effective for sampling adults. Regression analysis provided a means of adjustingmore » for the effects of soil moisture and showed soil temperature to be unimportant in predicting efficiency of flush sampling. Cesium-137 was used to label females for subsequent location underground. Comparison of mean distance to nearest neighbor with the distance predicted by a random distribution model showed that the observed distance in the spring was significantly greater than hypothesized (Student's T-test, p < 0.05). Fall adult nearest neighbor distance was not different than predicted by the random distribution hypothesis.« less

Modeling spring habitat requirements of the endangered brown eared pheasant Crossoptilon mantchuricum in the Huanglong Mountains, Shaanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Li, Hongqun; Yue, Bisong; Lian, Zhenmin; Zhao, Hongfeng; Zhao, Delong; Xiao, Xiangming

2012-09-01

A detailed understanding of the habitat needs of brown eared pheasants (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) is essential for conserving the species. We carried out field surveys in the Huanglong Mountains of Shaanxi Province, China, from March to June in 2007 and 2008. We arrayed a total of 206 grid plots (200 × 200 m) along transects in 2007 and 2008 and quantified a suite of environmental variables for each one. In the optimal logistic regression model, the most important variables for brown eared pheasants were slope degree, tree cover, distance to nearest water, cover and depth of fallen leaves. Hosmer and Leweshow goodness-of-fit tests explained that logistic models for the species were good fits. The model suggested that spring habitat selection of the brown eared pheasant was negatively related to distance to nearest water and slope degree, and positively to cover of trees and cover and depth of fallen leaves. In addition, the observed detected and undetected grids in 2007 did not show significant differences with predictions based on the model. These results showed that the model could well predict the habitat selection of brown eared pheasants. Based on these predictive models, we suggest that habitat management plans incorporating this new information can now focus more effectively on restrictions on the number of tourists entering the nature reserve, prohibition of firewood collection, livestock grazing, and medicinal plant harvesting by local residents in the core areas, protection of mixed forest and sources of the permanent water in the reserve, and use of alternatives to firewood.

Development and Validation of a Constitutive Model for Dental Composites during the Curing Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickham Kolstad, Lauren

Debonding is a critical failure of a dental composites used for dental restorations. Debonding of dental composites can be determined by comparing the shrinkage stress of to the debonding strength of the adhesive that bonds it to the tooth surface. It is difficult to measure shrinkage stress experimentally. In this study, finite element analysis is used to predict the stress in the composite during cure. A new constitutive law is presented that will allow composite developers to evaluate composite shrinkage stress at early stages in the material development. Shrinkage stress and shrinkage strain experimental data were gathered for three dental resins, Z250, Z350, and P90. Experimental data were used to develop a constitutive model for the Young's modulus as a function of time of the dental composite during cure. A Maxwell model, spring and dashpot in series, was used to simulate the composite. The compliance of the shrinkage stress device was also taken into account by including a spring in series with the Maxwell model. A coefficient of thermal expansion was also determined for internal loading of the composite by dividing shrinkage strain by time. Three FEA models are presented. A spring-disk model validates that the constitutive law is self-consistent. A quarter cuspal deflection model uses separate experimental data to verify that the constitutive law is valid. Finally, an axisymmetric tooth model is used to predict interfacial stresses in the composite. These stresses are compared to the debonding strength to check if the composite debonds. The new constitutive model accurately predicted cuspal deflection data. Predictions for interfacial bond stress in the tooth model compare favorably with debonding characteristics observed in practice for dental resins.

Winter range arrival and departure of white-tailed deer in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, M.E.

1995-01-01

I analyzed 364 spring and 239 fall migrations by 194 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 1975 to 1993 in northeastern Minnesota to determine the proximate cause of arrivals on and departures from winter ranges. The first autumn temperatures below -7?C initiated fall migrations for 14% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0-30) of female deer prior to snowfall in three autumns, but only 2% remained on winter ranges. During 14 autumns, the first temperatures below -7?C coincidental with snowfalls elicited migration in 45% (95% CI = 34-57) of females, and 91 % remained on winter ranges. Arrival dates failed to correlate with independent variables of temperature and snow depth, precluding predictive modeling of arrival on winter ranges. During 13 years, a mean of 80% of females permanently arrived on winter ranges by 31 December. Mean departure dates from winter ranges varied annually (19 March - 4 May) and between winter ranges (14 days) and according to snow depth (15-cm differences). Only 15 - 41 % of deer departed when snow depths were> 30 cm but 80% had done so by the time of lO-cm depths. Mean weekly snow depths in March (18-85 cm) and mean temperature in April (0.3 -8.1 ?c) explained most of the variation in mean departure dates from two winter ranges (Ely, R2 = 0.87, P < 0.0005, n = 19 springs; Isabella, R2 = 0.85, P = 0.0001, n = 12 springs). Mean differences between observed mean departure dates and mean departure dates predicted from equations ranged from 3 days (predictions within the study area) to 8 days (predictions for winter ranges 100-440 km distant).

Sound transmission through lightweight double-leaf partitions: theoretical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Lu, T. J.; Woodhouse, J.; Langley, R. S.; Evans, J.

2005-09-01

This paper presents theoretical modelling of the sound transmission loss through double-leaf lightweight partitions stiffened with periodically placed studs. First, by assuming that the effect of the studs can be replaced with elastic springs uniformly distributed between the sheathing panels, a simple smeared model is established. Second, periodic structure theory is used to develop a more accurate model taking account of the discrete placing of the studs. Both models treat incident sound waves in the horizontal plane only, for simplicity. The predictions of the two models are compared, to reveal the physical mechanisms determining sound transmission. The smeared model predicts relatively simple behaviour, in which the only conspicuous features are associated with coincidence effects with the two types of structural wave allowed by the partition model, and internal resonances of the air between the panels. In the periodic model, many more features are evident, associated with the structure of pass- and stop-bands for structural waves in the partition. The models are used to explain the effects of incidence angle and of the various system parameters. The predictions are compared with existing test data for steel plates with wooden stiffeners, and good agreement is obtained.

Actuator and aerodynamic modeling for high-angle-of-attack aeroservoelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

1993-01-01

Accurate prediction of airframe/actuation coupling is required by the imposing demands of modern flight control systems. In particular, for agility enhancement at high angle of attack and low dynamic pressure, structural integration characteristics such as hinge moments, effective actuator stiffness, and airframe/control surface damping can have a significant effect on stability predictions. Actuator responses are customarily represented with low-order transfer functions matched to actuator test data, and control surface stiffness is often modeled as a linear spring. The inclusion of the physical properties of actuation and its installation on the airframe is therefore addressed in this paper using detailed actuator models which consider the physical, electrical, and mechanical elements of actuation. The aeroservoelastic analysis procedure is described in which the actuators are modeled as detailed high-order transfer functions and as approximate low-order transfer functions. The impacts of unsteady aerodynamic modeling on aeroservoelastic stability are also investigated in this paper by varying the order of approximation, or number of aerodynamic lag states, in the analysis. Test data from a thrust-vectoring configuration of an F/A-18 aircraft are compared to predictions to determine the effects on accuracy as a function of modeling complexity.

Actuator and aerodynamic modeling for high-angle-of-attack aeroservoelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

1993-01-01

Accurate prediction of airframe/actuation coupling is required by the imposing demands of modern flight control systems. In particular, for agility enhancement at high angle of attack and low dynamic pressure, structural integration characteristics such as hinge moments, effective actuator stiffness, and airframe/control surface damping can have a significant effect on stability predictions. Actuator responses are customarily represented with low-order transfer functions matched to actuator test data, and control surface stiffness is often modeled as a linear spring. The inclusion of the physical properties of actuation and its installation on the airframe is therefore addressed using detailed actuator models which consider the physical, electrical, and mechanical elements of actuation. The aeroservoelastic analysis procedure is described in which the actuators are modeled as detailed high-order transfer functions and as approximate low-order transfer functions. The impacts of unsteady aerodynamic modeling on aeroservoelastic stability are also investigated by varying the order of approximation, or number of aerodynamic lag states, in the analysis. Test data from a thrust-vectoring configuration of an F/A-l8 aircraft are compared to predictions to determine the effects on accuracy as a function of modeling complexity.

Managed flood effects on beaver pond habitat in a desert riverine ecosystem, bill williams river, Arizona USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, D.C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Pritekel, C.M.; O'Neill, M. W.

2011-01-01

The ecological effects of beaver in warm-desert streams are poorly documented, but potentially significant. For example, stream water and sediment budgets may be affected by increased evaporative losses and sediment retention in beaver ponds. We measured physical attributes of beaver pond and adjacent lotic habitats on a regulated Sonoran Desert stream, the Bill Williams River, after ???11 flood-free months in Spring 2007 and Spring 2008. Neither a predicted warming of surface water as it passed through a pond nor a reduction in dissolved oxygen in ponds was consistently observed, but bed sediment sorted to finest in ponds as expected. We observed a river segment-scale downstream rise in daily minimum stream temperature that may have been influenced by the series of ??100 beaver ponds present. Channel cross-sections surveyed before and after an experimental flood (peak flow 65 m3/s) showed net aggradation on nine of 13 cross-sections through ponds and three of seven through lotic reaches. Our results indicate that beaver affect riverine processes in warm deserts much as they do in other biomes. However, effects may be magnified in deserts through the potential for beaver to alter the stream thermal regime and water budget. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2011.

The Influence of Cylinder Lubrication on Piston Slap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerges, S. N. Y.; de Luca, J. C.; Lalor, N.

2002-10-01

A model has been developed for determining the time history of piston slap impact force. This model takes into account the influence of the oil film on the impact behaviour, which was found to be an important factor. However, it was also found that entrapped gas bubbles in the oil are equally significant. Three test rigs were designed and built to study these effects on the impact phenomenon and extensive tests were carried out. The impact force time history has been determined using Reynolds' theory. Results have shown that Reynolds' theory for fluid film squeezing can be applied for oil film damping determination. However, the experimental results have also shown that when gas is entrapped during the impact, this theory considerably overpredicts the magnitude of the impact. An eight-degree-of-freedom lumped parameter model was developed through the dynamic analysis of each component of an internal combustion engine's reciprocating system. The effective damping factor derived from this model was found to be inversely proportional to the oil film thickness cubed, as expected from Reynolds' theory. A dynamic model has been proposed, where the oil film mixed with bubbles is considered to be analogous to a serial spring and damping system. By incorporating a spring in series with this damper, the effect of the bubbles can also be predicted.

International Earth Science Constellation Mission Operations Working Group September 27-29, 2016 Aqua Spring 2017 IAM Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Good, Susan M.

2016-01-01

This Aqua Spring 2017 IAM Series powerpoint presentation will be presented at the MOWG meeting in Albuquerque, NM. Topics to be discussed are: recap Aqua 2016 IAM campaign maneuver results and post 2016 IAM MLT evolution; current DMU strategy; 2017 IAM campaign dates and planning; Aqua latest lifetime MLT team predictions. Susan Good is a contractor who supports David Tracewell in code 595 therefore this is being routed through 595. Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager-Technical has reviewed and approved this presentation.

Winter atmospheric circulation signature for the timing of the spring bloom of diatoms in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Gerrit; Wiltshire, Karen

2015-04-01

Analysing long-term diatom data from the German Bight and observational climate data for the period 1962-2005, we found a close connection of the inter-annual variation of the timing of the spring bloom with the boreal winter atmospheric circulation. We examined the fact that high diatom counts of the spring bloom tended to occur later when the atmospheric circulation was characterized by winter blocking over Scandinavia. The associated pattern in the sea level pressure showed a pressure dipole with two centres located over the Azores and Norway and was tilted compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The bloom was earlier when the cyclonic circulation over Scandinavia allowed an increased inflow of Atlantic water into the North Sea which is associated with clearer, more marine water, and warmer conditions. The bloom was later when a more continental atmospheric flow from the east was detected. At Helgoland Roads, it seems that under turbid water conditions (= low light) zooplankton grazing can affect the timing of the phytoplankton bloom negatively. Warmer water temperatures will facilitate this. Under clear water conditions, light will be the main governing factor with regard to the timing of the spring bloom. These different water conditions are shown here to be mainly related to large-scale weather patterns. We found that the mean diatom bloom could be predicted from the sea level pressure one to three months in advance. Using historical pressure data, we derived a proxy for the timing of the spring bloom over the last centuries, showing an increased number of late (proxy-) blooms during the eighteenth century when the climate was considerably colder than today. We argue that these variations are important for the interpretation of inter-annual to centennial variations of biological processes. This is of particular interest when considering future scenarios, as well to considerations on past and future effects on the primary production and food webs.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

2016-04-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

2015-12-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Quantitative Analysis of Karst Conduit Structure Parameters and Hydraulic Parameters Based on Tracer Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiang, Z.; Zhiqiang, Z.; Xu, M.; Jinyu, S.; Jihong, Q.

2017-12-01

The Old Town of Lijiang is famous as the world cultural heritage since 1997, while characterized by its ancient buildings and natural scenery, water is the soul of the town. Around Heilongtan Springs, there are a large quantity of springs at the Old Town of Lijiang , which is an important part of the World Cultural Heritage. Heilongtan Springs is 2420m above the sea level, the annual variation of the flow rate varies greatly (0 8042 x 104 m3 / year). Recharge area Jiuzihai depressions is 6km long, 3km wide and 2800m above sea level, as main karst water recharge area karst funnel and the sink hole are developing on this planation surface, in the research area medium to thick layers of limestone made up Beiya formation (T2b) of Triassic system distributed widely, karst is strongly developed and the fissure caves water occurrence. In order to exploring the application of tracer test in karst hydrogeology, a tracer test was conducted from Jiuzihai depressions to Ganze Spring. Based on the hydrogeological conditions in the study area, tracer test was used for analysis of groundwater connectivity and flow field characteristics, quantitative analysis of Tracer Breakthrough Curves (BTC) with code Qtracer2. The results demonstated that there are hydraulic connection between Jiuzihai depressions with Ganze Spring, and there are other karst conduits in this area. The longitudinal dispersivity coefficient is 0.24 m2/s, longitudinal dispersivity is 12.06m, flow-channel volume is 3.08×104 m3, flow-channel surface area is 3.27×107m2, mean diameter is 1.42m, Reynolds number is 25187, Froude number is 0.0061, respectively. The groundwater in this area is in a slow turbulent state. The results are of great significance to understand the law of groundwater migration, establish groundwater quality prediction model and exploit karst water resources effectively.

Effect of stock size, climate, predation, and trophic status on recruitment of alewives in Lake Ontario, 1978-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Gorman, Robert; Lantry, Brian F.; Schneider, Clifford P.

2004-01-01

The population of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario is of great concern to fishery managers because alewives are the principal prey of introduced salmonines and because alewives negatively influence many endemic fishes. We used spring bottom trawl catches of alewives to investigate the roles of stock size, climate, predation, and lake trophic status on recruitment of alewives to age 2 in Lake Ontario during 1978–2000. Climate was indexed from the temperature of water entering a south-shore municipal treatment plant, lake trophic status was indexed by the mean concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in surface water in spring, and predation was indexed by the product of the number of salmonines stocked and relative, first-year survival of Chinook salmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha. A Ricker-type parent–progeny model suggested that peak production of age-1 alewives could occur over a broad range of spawning stock sizes, and the fit of the model was improved most by the addition of terms for spring water temperature and winter duration. With the addition of the two climate terms, the Ricker model indicated that when water was relatively warm in spring and the winter was relatively short, peak potential production of young was nine times higher than when water temperature and winters were average, and 73 times higher than when water was cold in spring and winters were long. Relative survival from age 1 to recruitment at age 2 was best described by a multiple linear regression with terms for adult abundance, TP, and predation. Mean recruitment of age-2 fish in the 1978–1998 year-classes predicted by using the two models in sequence was only about 20% greater than the observed mean recruitment. Model estimates fit the measured data exceptionally well for all but the largest four year-classes, which suggests that the models will facilitate improvement in estimates of trophic transfer due to alewives.

Characterizations of geothermal springs along the Moxi deep fault in the western Sichuan plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jihong; Xu, Mo; An, Chengjiao; Wu, Mingliang; Zhang, Yunhui; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Qiang; Lu, Guoping

2017-02-01

Abundant geothermal springs occur along the Moxi fault located in western Sichuan Province (the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau), highlighted by geothermal water outflow with an unusually high temperature of 218 °C at 21.5 MPa from a 2010-m borehole in Laoyulin, Kangding. Earthquake activity occurs relatively more frequently in the region and is considered to be related to the strong hydrothermal activity. Geothermal waters hosted by a deep fault may provide evidence regarding the deep underground; their aqueous chemistry and isotopic information can indicate the mechanism of thermal springs. Cyclical variations of geothermal water outflows are thought to work under the effect of solid earth tides and can contribute to understanding conditions and processes in underground geo-environments. This paper studies the origin and variations of the geothermal spring group controlled by the Moxi fault and discusses conditions in the deep ground. Flow variation monitoring of a series of parameters was performed to study the geothermal responses to solid tides. Geothermal reservoir temperatures are evaluated with Na-K-Mg data. The abundant sulfite content, dissolved oxygen (DO) and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) data are discussed to study the oxidation-reduction states. Strontium isotopes are used to trace the water source. The results demonstrate that geothermal water could flow quickly through the Moxi fault the depth of the geothermal reservoir influences the thermal reservoir temperature, where supercritical hot water is mixed with circulating groundwater and can reach 380 °C. To the southward along the fault, the circulation of geothermal waters becomes shallower, and the waters may have reacted with metamorphic rock to some extent. Our results provide a conceptual deep heat source model for geothermal flow and the reservoir characteristics of the Moxi fault and indicate that the faulting may well connect the deep heat source to shallower depths. The approach of hot spring variation research also has potential benefits for earthquake monitoring and prediction.

Comparison of age distributions estimated from environmental tracers by using binary-dilution and numerical models of fractured and folded karst: Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Plummer, Niel; Kauffman, Leon J.; Doctor, Daniel H.; Nelms, David L.; Schlosser, Peter

2013-01-01

Measured concentrations of environmental tracers in spring discharge from a karst aquifer in the Shenandoah Valley, USA, were used to refine a numerical groundwater flow model. The karst aquifer is folded and faulted carbonate bedrock dominated by diffuse flow along fractures. The numerical model represented bedrock structure and discrete features (fault zones and springs). Concentrations of 3H, 3He, 4He, and CFC-113 in spring discharge were interpreted as binary dilutions of young (0–8 years) water and old (tracer-free) water. Simulated mixtures of groundwater are derived from young water flowing along shallow paths, with the addition of old water flowing along deeper paths through the model domain that discharge to springs along fault zones. The simulated median age of young water discharged from springs (5.7 years) is slightly older than the median age estimated from 3H/3He data (4.4 years). The numerical model predicted a fraction of old water in spring discharge (0.07) that was half that determined by the binary-dilution model using the 3H/3He apparent age and 3H and CFC-113 data (0.14). This difference suggests that faults and lineaments are more numerous or extensive than those mapped and included in the numerical model.

Observational evidence for the relationship between spring soil moisture and June rainfall over the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KanthaRao, B.; Rakesh, V.

2018-05-01

Understanding the relationship between gradually varying soil moisture (SM) conditions and monsoon rainfall anomalies is crucial for seasonal prediction. Though it is an important issue, very few studies in the past attempted to diagnose the linkages between the antecedent SM and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. This study examined the relationship between spring (April-May) SM and June rainfall using observed data during the period 1979-2010. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses showed that the spring SM plays a significant role in June rainfall over the Central India (CI), South India (SI), and North East India (NEI) regions. The composite anomaly of the spring SM and June rainfall showed that excess (deficit) June rainfall over the CI was preceded by wet (dry) spring SM. The anomalies in surface-specific humidity, air temperature, and surface radiation fluxes also supported the existence of a positive SM-precipitation feedback over the CI. On the contrary, excess (deficit) June rainfall over the SI and NEI region were preceded by dry (wet) spring SM. The abnormal wet (dry) SM over the SI and NEI decreased (increased) the 2-m air temperature and increased (decreased) the surface pressure compared to the surrounding oceans which resulted in less (more) moisture transport from oceans to land (negative SM-precipitation feedback over the Indian monsoon region).

Overexploitation and cumulative drought trend effect on Ras El Ain karstic spring discharge (Khabour Sub-basin, Syria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abou Zakhem, Boulos; Kattaa, Bassam

2017-10-01

The effects of climate change and overexploitation are being strongly perceived in the studied area and the springs discharge is obviously affected. In this paper, Ras El Ain spring discharge and precipitation were analyzed by normalized methods on an yearly timescale. The deficit of Ras El Ain spring discharge due to overexploitation factors and drought effects was estimated. Cumulative drought analyses were carried out using SPI10 and SQI10. Finally, the decreasing trends of the spring discharge due to the deficiency in rainfall were analyzed. The main results reveal that the annual mean deficit of Ras El Ain spring discharge due to overpumping was between 32 and 45%, whereas, annual mean deficit related to drought was between 22 and 35% on average, during the last 30 years (post-1984). The moving averages of SPI and SQI delineate very well the drought periods during last three decades. The cumulative droughts using SPI10 and SQI10 reveal that wet period (pre-1984) with positive values was characterized by high precipitation and spring discharge. Overexploitation period (1984-1989) is distinguished by decreasing SQI10 values whereas, SPI10 is almost stable. The response of the karst system to the precipitation signal has been changed, during the drought period (1990-2000), and the spring behaviour has been modified due to the first overexploitation period. Finally, overexploitation period (2001-2008) is related to the second phase of groundwater intensive pumping for irrigation purposes. Consequently, this period is completely catastrophic causing the drying up of the spring. The decreasing trends analyzed using DPI and DQI showed annual decreasing rates relative to the mean values of -0.268% and -0.105%, respectively. Thus, the results of theoretical model reveal that precipitation will decrease by about DPI = -20.7% and the discharge will decline by about -9.2% by 2050. Consequently, the declining discharge due to climatic variation under natural conditions as pre-1984 was about 10%. Whereas, the catastrophic drying up of the spring was probably the consequence of the anthropogenic effects. Accordingly, it requires the development of sustainable water resources management program to reduce long-term drought risks, restore the groundwater reservoir and minimize the overexploitation effects on spring discharge.

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

2018-01-01

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

Seasonal differences of model predictability and the impact of SST in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, X. M.; Wang, H. J.

2005-01-01

Both seasonal potential predictability and the impact of SST in the Pacific on the forecast skill over China are investigated by using a 9-level global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L-ACCM). For each year during 1970 to 1999, the ensemble consists of seven integrations started from consecutive observational daily atmospheric fields and forced by observational monthly SST. For boreal winter, spring and summer, the variance ratios of the SST-forced variability to the total variability and the differences in the spatial correlation coefficients of seasonal mean fields in special years versus normal years are computed respectively. It follows that there are slightly inter-seasonal differences in the model potential predictability in the Tropics. At northern middle and high latitudes, prediction skill is generally low in spring and relatively high either in summer for surface air temperature and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential height or in winter for wind and precipitation. In general, prediction skill rises notably in western China, especially in northwestern China, when SST anomalies (SSTA) in the Ni (n) over tildeo-3 region are significant. Moreover, particular attention should be paid to the SSTA in the North Pacific (NP) if one aims to predict summer climate over the eastern part of China, i.e., northeastern China, North China and southeastern China.

Hood River Production Program Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) - Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs : Annual Report For Fiscal Year, October 2007 – September 2008.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerstenberger, Ryan

2009-07-27

This progress report describes work performed by the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs (CTWSRO) portion of the Hood River Production Program Monitoring and Evaluation Project (HRPP) during the 2008 fiscal year. A total of 64,736 hatchery winter steelhead, 12,108 hatchery summer steelhead, and 68,426 hatchery spring Chinook salmon smolts were acclimated and released in the Hood River basin during the spring. The HRPP exceeded program goals for a release of and 50,000 winter steelhead but fell short of the steelhead release goals of 30,000 summer steelhead and 75,000 spring Chinook in 2008. Passive Integrated Transponders (PIT) tags were implanted inmore » 6,652 hatchery winter steelhead, and 1,196 hatchery summer steelhead, to compare migratory attributes and survival rates of hatchery fish released into the Hood River. Water temperatures were recorded at six locations within the Hood River subbasin to monitor for compliance with Oregon Department of Environmental Quality water quality standards. A preseason spring Chinook salmon adult run forecast was generated, which predicted an abundant return adequate to meet escapement goal and brood stock needs. As a result the tribal and sport fisheries were opened. A tribal creel was conducted from May 22 to July 18 during which an estimated 172 spring Chinook were harvested. One hundred sixteen Spring Chinook salmon redds were observed and 72 carcasses were inspected on 19.4 miles of spawning grounds throughout the Hood River Basin during 2008. Annual salvage operations were completed in two irrigation canals resulting in the liberation of 1,641 fish back to the Hood River.« less

CFD analysis of thermally induced thermodynamic losses in the reciprocating compression and expansion of real gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taleb, Aly I.; Sapin, Paul; Barfuß, Christoph; Fabris, Drazen; Markides, Christos N.

2017-03-01

The efficiency of expanders is of prime importance in determining the overall performance of a variety of thermodynamic power systems, with reciprocating-piston expanders favoured at intermediate-scales of application (typically 10-100 kW). Once the mechanical losses in reciprocating machines are minimized (e.g. through careful valve design and operation), losses due to the unsteady thermal-energy exchange between the working fluid and the solid walls of the containing device can become the dominant loss mechanism. In this work, gas-spring devices are investigated numerically in order to focus explicitly on the thermodynamic losses that arise due to this unsteady heat transfer. The specific aim of the study is to investigate the behaviour of real gases in gas springs and to compare this to that of ideal gases in order to attain a better understanding of the impact of real-gas effects on the thermally induced losses in reciprocating expanders and compressors. A CFD-model of a gas spring is developed in OpenFOAM. Three different fluid models are compared: (1) an ideal-gas model with constant thermodynamic and transport properties; (2) an ideal-gas model with temperature-dependent properties; and (3) a real-gas model using the Peng-Robinson equation-of-state with temperature and pressure-dependent properties. Results indicate that, for simple, mono- and diatomic gases, like helium or nitrogen, there is a negligible difference in the pressure and temperature oscillations over a cycle between the ideal and real-gas models. However, when considering heavier (organic) molecules, such as propane, the ideal-gas model tends to overestimate the pressure compared to the real-gas model, especially if the temperature and pressure dependency of the thermodynamic properties is not taken into account. In fact, the ideal-gas model predicts higher pressures by as much as 25% (compared to the real-gas model). Additionally, both ideal-gas models underestimate the thermally induced loss compared to the real-gas model for heavier gases. This discrepancy is most pronounced at rotational speeds where the losses are highest. The real-gas model predicts a peak loss of 8.9% of the compression work, while the ideal-gas model predicts a peak loss of 5.7%. These differences in the work loss are due to the fact that the gas behaves less ideally during expansion than during compression, with the compressibility factor being lower during compression. This behaviour cannot be captured with the ideal-gas law. It is concluded that real-gas effects must be taken into account in order to predict accurately the thermally induced loss mechanism when using heavy fluid molecules in such devices.

The Influence of Spring Length on the Physical Parameters of Simple Harmonic Motion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Triana, C. A.; Fajardo, F.

2012-01-01

The aim of this work is to analyse the influence of spring length on the simple harmonic motion of a spring-mass system. In particular, we study the effect of changing the spring length on the elastic constant "[kappa]", the angular frequency "[omega]" and the damping factor "[gamma]" of the oscillations. To characterize the behaviour of these…

Modular Approach to Structural Simulation for Vehicle Crashworthiness Prediction

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1975-03-01

A modular formulation for simulation of the structural deformation and deceleration of a vehicle for crashworthiness and collision compatibility is presented. This formulation includes three dimensional beam elements, various spring elements, rigid b...

Radii effect on the translation spring constant of force transducer beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, C. E.

1992-01-01

Multi-component strain-gage force transducer design requires the designer to determine the spring constant of the numerous beams or flexures incorporated in the transducer. The classical beam deflection formulae that are used in calculating these spring constants typically assume that the beam has a uniform moment of inertia along the entire beam length. In practice all beams have a radius at the end where the beam interfaces with the shoulder of the transducer, and on short beams in particular this increases the beam spring constant considerably. A Basic computer program utilizing numerical integration is presented to determine this effect.

Variability in syringe components and its impact on functionality of delivery systems.

PubMed

Rathore, Nitin; Pranay, Pratik; Eu, Bruce; Ji, Wenchang; Walls, Ed

2011-01-01

Prefilled syringes and autoinjectors are becoming increasingly common for parenteral drug administration primarily due to the convenience they offer to the patients. Successful commercialization of such delivery systems requires thorough characterization of individual components. Complete understanding of various sources of variability and their ranking is essential for robust device design. In this work, we studied the impact of variability in various primary container and device components on the delivery forces associated with syringe injection. More specifically, the effects of barrel size, needle size, autoinjector spring force, and frictional forces have been evaluated. An analytical model based on underlying physics is developed that can be used to fully characterize the design space for a product delivery system. Use of prefilled syringes (syringes prefilled with active drug) is becoming increasingly common for injectable drugs. Compared to vials, prefilled syringes offer higher dose accuracy and ease of use due to fewer steps required for dosage. Convenience to end users can be further enhanced through the use of prefilled syringes in combination with delivery devices such as autoinjectors. These devices allow patients to self-administer the drug by following simple steps such as pressing a button. These autoinjectors are often spring-loaded and are designed to keep the needle tip shielded prior to injection. Because the needle is not visible to the user, such autoinjectors are perceived to be less invasive than syringes and help the patient overcome the hesitation associated with self-administration. In order to successfully develop and market such delivery devices, we need to perform an in-depth analysis of the components that come into play during the activation of the device and dose delivery. Typically, an autoinjector is activated by the press of a button that releases a compressed spring; the spring relaxes and provides the driving force to push the drug out of the syringe and into the site of administration. Complete understanding of the spring force, syringe barrel dimensions, needle size, and drug product properties is essential for robust device design. It is equally important to estimate the extent of variability that exists in these components and the resulting impact it could have on the performance of the device. In this work, we studied the impact of variability in syringe and device components on the delivery forces associated with syringe injection. More specifically, the effect of barrel size, needle size, autoinjector spring force, and frictional forces has been evaluated. An analytical model based on underlying physics is developed that can be used to predict the functionality of the autoinjector.

Water-resources data collected in the Devils Hole area, Ash Meadows, Nevada, 1975-76

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanes, William Toby

1976-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey collected water-level, spring-flow, and power-consumption data in the Devils Hole area in Nevada from July 1975 through June 1976. The work for this sfurth annual data report was done in cooperation with the National Park Service. Continuous recorders were used to monitor water levels in Devils Hole, three observation wells, and the flow from four springs. Also, monthly readings were made on two wells to help define a general trend of ground-water levels. Monthly meter readings of six electrically powered irrigation wells provided a record of power consumption, which in turn, is an index of the amount of water pumped. The purpose of the work is to observe the effects, if any, of ground-water withdrawals from specified irrigtion wells in the Ash Meadows area on (1) the water level in Devils Hole, and (2) the flow of four springs in the area. Fairbanks Spring and Big Spring, which are in the extreme northern and southern parts of Ash Meadows respectively, show little effect of pumping. An increase in the monthly average flow at Fairbanks Spring in September can be attributed to runoff and surficial recharge in the surrounding area caused by a large cloudburst. Jack Rabbit Spring, which is about 1 mile southwest of the major pumping field, is affected strongly by pumping. Jack Rabbit Spring flowed during the winter months but flowed very infrequently during non-winter months. Point of Rocks Spring had a flow pattern similar to Big Spring and Fairbanks Spring. All the springs had a general increase in flow during the Winter months. (Woodard-USGS)

Influence of air temperature on the first flowering date of Prunus yedoensis Matsum

PubMed Central

Shi, Peijian; Chen, Zhenghong; Yang, Qingpei; Harris, Marvin K; Xiao, Mei

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant effect on the first flowering date (FFD) in plants flowering in early spring. Prunus yedoensis Matsum is a good model plant for analyzing this effect. In this study, we used a degree day model to analyze the effect of air temperatures on the FFDs of P. yedoensis at Wuhan University from a long-time series from 1951 to 2012. First, the starting date (=7 February) is determined according to the lowest correlation coefficient between the FFD and the daily average accumulated degree days (ADD). Second, the base temperature (=−1.2°C) is determined according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) between the observed and predicted FFDs based on the mean of 62-year ADDs. Finally, based on this combination of starting date and base temperature, the daily average ADD of every year was calculated. Performing a linear fit of the daily average ADD to year, we find that there is an increasing trend that indicates climate warming from a biological climatic indicator. In addition, we find that the minimum annual temperature also has a significant effect on the FFD of P. yedoensis using the generalized additive model. This study provides a method for analyzing the climate change on the FFD in plants' flowering in early spring. PMID:24558585

Ammonia-oxidizing archaea are more resistant than denitrifiers to seasonal precipitation changes in an acidic subtropical forest soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie

2017-04-01

More frequent droughts and storms will occur globally in the prediction of global climate change model, which will influence soil microorganisms and nutrient cycles. Understanding the resistance of soil functional microorganisms and the associated biogeochemical cycles to such climate changes is important in evaluating responses of ecosystem functioning. In order to clarify the responses of soil functional microorganisms involved in nitrogen (N) cycle to the predicted precipitation scenarios, two contrasting precipitation manipulation experiments were conducted in an acidic subtropical forest soil. One experiment manipulated drier dry-season and wetter wet-season (DD) by reducing dry-season rainfall and adding the equivalently reduced rainfall to wet-season. Another experiment manipulated extending dry-season and wetter wet-season (ED) by reducing spring-season rainfall and adding the equivalent rainfall in the late wet-season. The resistance index of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) amoA and denitrifying (nirK, nirS and nosZ) genes abundance, soil net N mineralization and nitrification rates were calculated during experiments to examine their responses to precipitation changes. As the results, the resistance index of functional microbial abundance (-0.03 ± 0.08) was much lower than that of net N transformation rates (0.55 ± 0.02), indicating more sensitive of functional microorganisms in response to precipitation changes than the related N processes. Extending dry-season showed greater effects on both AOA amoA and denitrifying genes abundance than drier dry-season, with significant increases of these microbial abundance after extending dry-season. This was mainly due to the interaction effects of soil water content (SWC), dissolve organic carbon (DOC) and NH4+ concentration during rainfall reduction in spring-season. Interestingly, the resistance index of AOA amoA abundance was significantly higher than that of denitrifying gene abundance, indicating more resistant of AOA to precipitation changes. This was mainly because AOA have higher resource utilization efficiency and can acclimate to environmental changes more rapidly than denitrifiers, as indicated by less effects of N, C substrates and SWC on the resistance index of AOA abundance. This study demonstrated substantial disturbance of drier spring-season to soil nitrifying and denitrifying microorganisms, and greater stability of AOA community abundance in resistant to such disturbance.

Characterization of mean transit time at large springs in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA: A tool for assessing groundwater discharge vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Solder, John; Stolp, Bernard J.; Heilweil, Victor M.; Susong, David D.

2016-01-01

Environmental tracers (noble gases, tritium, industrial gases, stable isotopes, and radio-carbon) and hydrogeology were interpreted to determine groundwater transit-time distribution and calculate mean transit time (MTT) with lumped parameter modeling at 19 large springs distributed throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), USA. The predictive value of the MTT to evaluate the pattern and timing of groundwater response to hydraulic stress (i.e., vulnerability) is examined by a statistical analysis of MTT, historical spring discharge records, and the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. MTTs of the springs range from 10 to 15,000 years and 90 % of the cumulative discharge-weighted travel-time distribution falls within the range of 2−10,000 years. Historical variability in discharge was assessed as the ratio of 10–90 % flow-exceedance (R 10/90%) and ranged from 2.8 to 1.1 for select springs with available discharge data. The lag-time (i.e., delay in discharge response to drought conditions) was determined by cross-correlation analysis and ranged from 0.5 to 6 years for the same select springs. Springs with shorter MTTs (<80 years) statistically correlate with larger discharge variations and faster responses to drought, indicating MTT can be used for estimating the relative magnitude and timing of groundwater response. Results indicate that groundwater discharge to streams in the UCRB will likely respond on the order of years to climate variation and increasing groundwater withdrawals.

Develop an early warning climate indicator to support the Nation's resilience to 'flash' droughts over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; YANG, Z.; Solis, R.

2013-12-01

'Flash' droughts refer to those droughts that intensify rapidly in spring and summer, coupled with a strong increase of summer extreme temperatures, such as those that occurred over Texas in 2011 and the Great Plains in 2012. These droughts represent a great threat to North American water security. Climate models have failed to predict these 'flash' droughts and are ambiguous in projecting their future changes largely because of models' weaknesses in predicting summer rainfall and soil moisture feedbacks. By contrast, climate models are more reliable in simulating changes of large-scale circulation and warming of temperatures during the winter and spring seasons. We present a prototype of an early warning indicator for the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer by using the large-scale circulation and land surface conditions in winter and spring based on observed relationships between these conditions and their underlying physical mechanisms established by previous observations and numerical model simulations. This prototype 'flash' drought indicator (IFDW) currently uses global and regional reanalysis products (e.g., CFSR, MERRA, NLDAS products) in winter and spring to provide an assessment of summer drought severity similar to drought severity indices like PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) etc., provided by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) with additional information about uncertainty and past probability distributions of IFDW. Preliminary evaluation of hindcasts suggests that the indicator captures the occurrences of all the regional severe to extreme summer droughts during the past 63 years (1949-2011) over the US Great Plains, and 95% of the drought ending. This prototype IFDW has several advantages over the available drought indices that simply track local drought conditions in the past, present and future: 1) It mitigates the weakness of current climate models in predicting future summer droughts and takes advantage of model strengths and our understanding of the mechanisms that control 'flash' droughts; 2) It provides actionable drought risk information for stakeholders before droughts become fully developed in the current climate; 3) It can potentially link the future increase of temperatures in winter and spring to the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer. Such a link would make the projected changes of the 'flash' droughts more intuitive and compelling to high-level decision makers and the public.

Analytical approach on the stiffness of MR fluid filled spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikulskyi, Stanislav; Kim, Daewon

2017-04-01

A solid mechanical spring generally exhibits uniform stiffness. This paper studies a mechanical spring filled with magnetorheological (MR) fluid to achieve controllable stiffness. The hollow spring filled with MR fluid is subjected to a controlled magnetic field in order to change the viscosity of the MR fluid and thereby to change the overall stiffness of the spring. MR fluid is considered as a Bingham viscoplastic linear material in the mathematical model. The goal of this research is to study the feasibility of such spring system by analytically computing the effects of MR fluid on overall spring stiffness. For this purpose, spring mechanics and MR fluid behavior are studied to increase the accuracy of the analysis. Numerical simulations are also performed to generate some assumptions, which simplify calculations in the analytical part. The accuracy of the present approach is validated by comparing the analytical results to previously known experimental results. Overall stiffness variations of the spring are also discussed for different spring designs.

Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.

Finite element simulation of gap opening between cladding tube and spacer grid in a fuel rod assembly using crystallographic models of irradiation growth and creep

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patra, Anirban; Tomé, Carlos N.

A physically-based crystal plasticity framework for modeling irradiation growth and creep is interfaced with the finite element code ABAQUS in order to study the contact forces and the gap evolution between the spacer grid and the cladding tube as a function of irradiation in a representative section of a fuel rod assembly. Deformation mechanisms governing the gap opening are identified and correlated to the texture-dependent material response. Thus, in the absence of coolant flow-induced vibrations, these simulations predict the contribution of irradiation growth and creep to the gap opening between the cladding tube and the springs and dimples on themore » spacer grid. The simulated contact forces on the springs and dimples are compared to available experimental and modeling data. Various combinations of external loads are applied on the springs and dimples to simulate fuel rods in the interior and at the periphery of the fuel rod assembly. Furthermore, we found that loading conditions representative (to a first order approximation) of fuel rods at the periphery show higher gap opening. This is in agreement with in-reactor data, where rod leakages due to the synergistic effects of gap opening and coolant flow-induced vibrations were generally found to occur at the periphery of the fuel rod assembly.« less

Finite element simulation of gap opening between cladding tube and spacer grid in a fuel rod assembly using crystallographic models of irradiation growth and creep

DOE PAGES

Patra, Anirban; Tomé, Carlos N.

2017-03-06

A physically-based crystal plasticity framework for modeling irradiation growth and creep is interfaced with the finite element code ABAQUS in order to study the contact forces and the gap evolution between the spacer grid and the cladding tube as a function of irradiation in a representative section of a fuel rod assembly. Deformation mechanisms governing the gap opening are identified and correlated to the texture-dependent material response. Thus, in the absence of coolant flow-induced vibrations, these simulations predict the contribution of irradiation growth and creep to the gap opening between the cladding tube and the springs and dimples on themore » spacer grid. The simulated contact forces on the springs and dimples are compared to available experimental and modeling data. Various combinations of external loads are applied on the springs and dimples to simulate fuel rods in the interior and at the periphery of the fuel rod assembly. Furthermore, we found that loading conditions representative (to a first order approximation) of fuel rods at the periphery show higher gap opening. This is in agreement with in-reactor data, where rod leakages due to the synergistic effects of gap opening and coolant flow-induced vibrations were generally found to occur at the periphery of the fuel rod assembly.« less

Effect of temperature on the orthodontic clinical applications of niti closed-coil springs

PubMed Central

Espinar-Escalona, Eduardo; Llamas-Carreras, José M.; Barrera-Mora, José M.; Abalos-Lasbrucci, Camilo

2013-01-01

NiTi spring coils were used to obtain large deformation under a constant force. The device consists on a NiTi coil spring, superelastic at body temperature, in order to have a stress plateau during the austenitic retransformation during the unloading. The temperature variations induced changes in the spring force. Objectives: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the temperature variations in the spring forces and corrosion behaviour simulating the ingestion hot/cold drinks and food. Study Design: The springs were subjected to a tensile force using universal testing machine MTS-Adamel (100 N load cell). All tests were performed in artificial saliva maintained at different temperatures. The corrosion tests were performed according to the ISO-standard 10993-15:2000. Results: The increase in temperature of 18oC induced an increase in the spring force of 30%. However, when the temperature returns to 37oC the distraction force recovers near the initial level. After cooling down the spring to 15oC, the force decreased by 46%. This investigation show as the temperature increase, the corrosion potential shifts towards negative values and the corrosion density is rising. Conclusions: The changes of the temperatures do not modify the superelastic behaviour of the NiTi closed-coil springs. The corrosion potential of NiTi in artificial saliva is decreasing by the rise of the temperatures. Key words:Superelasticity, NiTi, springs, orthodontic, coils, recovery, temperature. PMID:23722142

Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

2016-12-01

This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project undertaken by one of the coauthors (Bohua Huang, see the paper by Huang et al. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014) in another AGU session) in which seasonal hindcasts are being carried out for each of the 57 years (1958-2014) using CFSv2.

Double plication for spring-mediated intestinal lengthening of a defunctionalized Roux limb.

PubMed

Dubrovsky, Genia; Huynh, Nhan; Thomas, Anne-Laure; Shekherdimian, Shant; Dunn, James C Y

2017-12-26

Spring-mediated distraction enterogenesis has been shown to increase the length of an intestinal segment. The goal of this study is to use suture plication to confine a spring within an intestinal segment while maintaining luminal patency to the rest of the intestine. Juvenile mini-Yucatan pigs underwent placement of nitinol springs within a defunctionalized Roux limb of jejunum. A 20 French catheter was passed temporarily, and sutures were used to plicate the intestinal wall around the catheter at both ends of the encapsulated spring. Uncompressed springs placed in plicated segments and springs placed in nonplicated segments served as controls. The intestine was examined approximately 3 weeks after spring placement. In the absence of plication, springs passed through the intestine within a week. Double plication allowed the spring to stay within the Roux limb for 3 weeks. Compared to uncompressed springs that showed no change in the length of plicated segments, compressed springs caused a significant 1.7-fold increase in the length of plicated segments. Intestinal plication is an effective method to confine endoluminal springs. The confined springs could lengthen intestine that maintains luminal patency. This approach may be useful to lengthen intestine in patients with short bowel syndrome. Level I Experimental Study. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Moderate summer heat stress does not modify immunological parameters of Holstein dairy cows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacetera, Nicola; Bernabucci, Umberto; Ronchi, Bruno; Scalia, Daniela; Nardone, Alessandro

2002-02-01

The study was undertaken during spring and summer months in a territory representative of the Mediterranean climate to assess the effects of season on some immunological parameters of dairy cows. Twenty Holstein cows were used. Eleven of those cows gave birth during spring; the remaining nine cows gave birth in summer. The two groups of cows were homogeneous for parity. Values of air temperatures and relative humidity were recorded both during spring and summer, and were utilized to calculate the temperature humidity index (THI). One week before the expected calving, rectal temperatures and respiratory rates of the cows were recorded (1500 hours), and cell-mediated immunity was assessed by measuring the proliferation of mitogen-stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Within 3 h of calving, one colostrum sample was taken from each cow and analysed to determine content of immunoglobulin (Ig) G1, IgG2, IgM and IgA. At 48 h after birth, passive immunization of the calves was assessed by measuring total serum IgG. During summer, daytime (0900-2000 hours) THI values were above the upper critical value of 72 [75.2, (SD 2.6)] indicating conditions that could represent moderate heat stress. That THI values were able to predict heat stress was confirmed by the values of rectal temperatures and respiratory rates, which were higher ( P < 0.05 and P < 0.001 respectively) during summer. Proliferation of PBMC, the colostral concentration of Ig fractions and serum levels of IgG in their respective offspring did not differ between spring and summer cows. Results indicated that moderate heat stress due to the hot Mediterranean summer does not modify cell-mediated immunity, the protective value of colostrum and passive immunization of the offspring in dairy cows.

Relationships of cadmium, mercury, and selenium with nutrient reserves of female lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) during winter and spring migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, M.J.; Afton, A.D.; Custer, Christine M.; Custer, T.W.

2007-01-01

Trace elements may have important effects on body condition of ducks during spring migration, because individuals are experiencing energetically costly events (e.g., migration, nutrient reserve accumulation, pair formation, feather molt, and ovarian follicle development). We examined relationships among hepatic cadmium, mercury, and selenium concentrations (microg/g dry wt) and nutrient reserves (lipid, protein, and mineral) of female lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) during winter and spring migration at four locations within the Mississippi Flyway (LA, IL, and MN, USA, and MB, Canada). Selenium concentrations (range, 3.73-52.29 microg/g dry wt) were positively correlated with lipid reserves (F1,73 = 22.69, p < 0.001, type III partial r2 = 0.24), whereas cadmium was negatively correlated with lipid reserves (F1,73 = 6.92, p = 0.010, type III partial r2 = 0.09). The observed relationship between cadmium and lipid reserves may be cause for concern, because lipid reserves of females declined by 55 g (47%), on average, within the range of observed cadmium concentrations (0.23-7.24 microg/g dry wt), despite the relatively low cadmium concentrations detected. Mean cadmium concentrations were higher in Minnesota (1.23 microg/g dry wt) and Manitoba (1.11 microg/g dry wt) than in Louisiana (0.80 microg/g dry wt) and Illinois (0.69 microg/g dry wt). However, mean cadmium concentrations predict lipid reserves of females to be only 11 g lower, on average, in Minnesota than in Illinois. Previous research documented that lipid reserves were 100 g lower in Minnesota than in Illinois; consequently, cadmium is unlikely to be the sole cause for decreases in lipid reserves of females during late-spring migration.

Tuber size variation and organ preformation constrain growth responses of a spring geophyte.

PubMed

Werger, Marinus J A; Huber, Heidrun

2006-03-01

Functional responses to environmental variation do not only depend on the genetic potential of a species to express different trait values, but can also be limited by characteristics, such as the timing of organ (pre-) formation, aboveground longevity or the presence of a storage organ. In this experiment we tested to what degree variation in tuber size and organ preformation constrain the responsiveness to environmental quality and whether responsiveness is modified by the availability of stored resources by exposing the spring geophyte Bunium bulbocastanum to different light and nutrient regimes. Growth and biomass partitioning were affected by initial tuber size and resource availability. On average, tuber weight amounted to 60%, but never less than 30% of the total plant biomass. Initial tuber size, considered an estimate of the total carbon pool available at the onset of treatments, affected plant growth and reproduction throughout the experiment but had little effect on the responsiveness of plants to the treatments. The responsiveness was partly constrained by organ preformation: in the second year variation of leaf number was considerably larger than in the first year of the treatments. The results indicate that a spring geophyte with organ preformation has only limited possibilities to respond to short-term fluctuations of the environment, as all leaves and the inflorescence are preformed in the previous growing season and resources stored in tubers are predominantly used for survival during dormancy and are not invested into plastic adjustments to environmental quality. Such spring geophytes have only limited possibilities to buffer environmental variation. This explains their restriction to habitats characterized by predictable changes of the environmental conditions.

Enhanced influence of early-spring tropical Indian Ocean SST on the following early-summer precipitation over Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Tingting; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun; Hao, Xin

2017-04-01

The relationship between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and East Asian summer monsoon/precipitation has been documented in many studies. However, the precursor signals of summer precipitation in the TIO sea surface temperature (SST), which is important for climate prediction, have drawn little attention. This study identified a strong relationship between early-spring TIO SST and subsequent early-summer precipitation in Northeast China (NEC) since the late 1980s. For 1961-1986, the correlations between early-spring TIO SST and early-summer NEC precipitation were statistically insignificant; for 1989-2014, they were positively significant. Since the late 1980s, the early-spring positive TIO SST anomaly was generally followed by a significant anomalous anticyclone over Japan; that facilitated anomalous southerly winds over NEC, conveying more moisture from the North Pacific. Further analysis indicated that an early TIO SST anomaly showed robust persistence into early summer. However, the early-summer TIO SST anomaly displayed a more significant influence on simultaneous atmospheric circulation and further affected NEC precipitation since the late 1980s. In 1989-2014, the early-summer Hadley and Ferrell cell anomalies associated with simultaneous TIO SST anomaly were much more significant and extended further north to mid-latitudes, which provided a dynamic foundation for the TIO-mid-latitude connection. Correspondingly, the TIO SST anomaly could lead to significant divergence anomalies over the Mediterranean. The advections of vorticity by the divergent component of the flow effectively acted as a Rossby wave source. Thus, an apparent Rossby wave originated from the Mediterranean and propagated east to East Asia; that further influenced the NEC precipitation through modulation to the atmospheric circulation (e.g., surface wind, moisture, vertical motion).

Developing and Delivering National-Scale Gridded Phenology Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, L.; Crimmins, M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.; Rosemartin, A.; Switzer, J.; Weltzin, J. F.

2016-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) is now producing and freely delivering daily maps and short-term forecasts of accumulated growing degree days and spring onset dates (based on the Extended Spring Indices) at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States. These data products have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, determining planting dates, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. Accumulated growing degree day (AGDD) maps were selected because accumulated temperature is a strong driver of phenological transitions in plants and animals, including leaf-out, flowering, fruit ripening and migration. The Extended Spring Indices (SI-x) are based on predictive climate models for lilac and honeysuckle leaf and bloom; they have been widely used to summarize changes in the timing of spring onset. The SI-x is used as a national indicator of climate change impacts by the US Global Change Research Program and the Environmental Protection Agency. The USA-NPN is a national-scale program that supports scientific advancement and decision-making by collecting, storing, and sharing phenology data and information. To best serve various audiences, the AGDD and SI-x gridded maps are available in various formats through a range of access tools, including the USA-NPN online visualization tool as well as industry standards compliant web services. We plan to expand the suite of gridded map products offered by the USA-NPN to include predictive maps of phenological transitions for additional plant and animal species at fine spatial and temporal resolution in the near future. USA-NPN invites you to use freely available daily and short-term forecast maps of accumulated growing degree days and spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States.

Valve-spring Surge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marti, Willy

1937-01-01

Test equipment is described that includes a system of three quartz indicators whereby three different pressures could be synchronized and simultaneously recorded on a single oscillogram. This equipment was used to test the reliction of waves at ends of valve spring, the dynamical stress of the valve spring for a single lift of the valve, and measurement of the curve of the cam tested. Other tests included simultaneous recording of the stress at both ends of the spring, spring oscillation during a single lift as a function of speed, computation of amplitude of oscillation for a single lift by harmonic analysis, effect of cam profile, the setting up of resonance, and forced spring oscillation with damping.

Basal fire wounds on some southern Appalachian hardwoods

Treesearch

RM Nelson; IH Sims; MS. Abell

1933-01-01

Data from 317 oaks and yellow poplars wounded by a spring fire in Virginia were analyzed by means of multiple linear correlation. A method was obtained whereby the size of wound can be predicted provided the areas of discolored bark and diameters of injured trees are known. The method of prediction so far is safely applicable only to groups of trees similar to those...

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Barandiaran, Danny; Hilburn, Kyle; Houser, Paul; Oglesby, Bob; Pan, Ming; Pinker, Rachel; Santanello, Joe; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan;

Do summer temperatures trigger spring maturation in pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clemens, B.J.; Van De Wetering, S.; Kaufman, J.; Holt, R.A.; Schreck, C.B.

2009-01-01

Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus, return to streams and use somatic energy to fuel maturation. Body size decreases, the lamprey mature, spawn, and then die. We predicted that warm, summer temperatures (>20 ??C) would accentuate shrinkage in body size, and expedite sexual maturation and subsequent death. We compared fish reared in the laboratory at diel fluctuating temperatures of 20-24 ??C (mean = 21.8 ??C) with fish reared at cooler temperatures (13.6 ??C). The results confirmed our predictions. Lamprey from the warm water group showed significantly greater proportional decreases in body weight following the summer temperature treatments than fish from the cool water group. A greater proportion of warm water fish sexually matured (100%) and died (97%) the following spring than cool water fish (53% sexually mature, 61% died). Females tended to mature and die earlier than males, most obviously in the warm water group. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Hydrograph Predictions of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From an Ice-Dammed Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, S. W.; Jacquet, J.; McGrath, D.; Koschitzki, R.; Okuinghttons, J.

2017-12-01

Understanding the time evolution of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and ultimately predicting peak discharge, is crucial to mitigating the impacts of GLOFs on downstream communities and understanding concomitant surface change. The dearth of in situ measurements taken during GLOFs has left many GLOF models currently in use untested. Here we present a dataset of 13 GLOFs from Lago Cachet Dos, Aysen Region, Chile in which we detail measurements of key environmental variables (total volume drained, lake temperature, and lake inflow rate) and high temporal resolution discharge measurements at the source lake, in addition to well-constrained ice thickness and bedrock topography. Using this dataset we test two common empirical equations as well as the physically-based model of Spring-Hutter-Clarke. We find that the commonly used empirical relationships based solely on a dataset of lake volume drained fail to predict the large variability in observed peak discharges from Lago Cachet Dos. This disagreement is likely because these equations do not consider additional environmental variables that we show also control peak discharge, primarily, lake water temperature and the rate of meltwater inflow to the source lake. We find that the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model can accurately simulate the exponentially rising hydrographs that are characteristic of ice-dammed GLOFs, as well as the order of magnitude variation in peak discharge between events if the hydraulic roughness parameter is allowed to be a free fitting parameter. However, the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model over predicts peak discharge in all cases by 10 to 35%. The systematic over prediction of peak discharge by the model is related to its abrupt flood termination that misses the observed steep falling limb of the flood hydrograph. Although satisfactory model fits are produced, the range in hydraulic roughness required to obtain these fits across all events was large, which suggests that current models do not completely capture the physics of these systems, thus limiting their ability to truly predict peak discharges using only independently constrained parameters. We suggest what some of these missing physics might be.

Impact of vegetation feedback at subseasonal & seasonal timescales on precipitation over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Wang, G.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture-vegetation-precipitation feedbacks tend to enhance soil moisture memory in some areas of the globe, which contributes to the subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction skill. In this study, the impact of vegetation on precipitation over North America is investigated using a coupled land-atmosphere model CAM3- CLM3. The coupled model has been modified to include a predictive vegetation phenology scheme and validated against the MODIS data. Vegetation phenology is modeled by updating the leaf area index (LAI) daily in response to cumulative and concurrent hydrometeorological conditions. First, driven with the climatological SST, a large group of 5-member ensembles of simulations from the late spring and summer to the end of year are generated with the different initial conditions of soil moisture. The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies on subsequent precipitation is examined with the predictive vegetation phenology scheme disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles). The simulated climate differences between "SM" and "SM_Veg" ensembles represent the role of vegetation in soil moisture-vegetation- precipitation feedback. Experiments in this study focus on how the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on their characteristics, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage and vertical depth, and further how it is modified by the interactive vegetation. Our results, for example, suggest that the impact of late spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident in subsequent precipitation until early summer when local convective precipitation dominates. With the summer wet soil moisture anomalies, vegetation tends to enhance the positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation, while vegetation tends to suppress such positive feedback with the late spring anomalies. Second, the impact of vegetation feedback is investigated by driving the model with the inter-annually varying monthly SST (1983-1994). With the predictive vegetation phenology disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles), the simulated climates are compared with the observation. This will present the role of an interactive or predictive vegetation phenology scheme in subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction. Specifically, the extreme climate events such as drought in 1988 and flood in 1993 over the Midwestern United States will be the focus of results analyses.

Use of SAR imagery and other remotely-sensed data in deriving ice information during a severe ice event on the Grand Banks (Newfoundland)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carsey, F. D.; Argus, S. D.

1988-01-01

Image data from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) are used to observe an ice compaction event off the East Coast of Newfoundland in spring, 1987. The information developed from sequential SAR observations is shown to do a remarkably effective job of describing the ice conditions; the difficult variable is the ice thickness which is found to be surprisingly large (2 to 4 times the thickness predictable from thermodynamic growth alone). It may be possible to model the ice thickness using SAR-derived ice motion.

Comparison of Models of Stress Relaxation in Failure Analysis for Connectors under Long-term Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yilin; Wan, Mengru

2018-03-01

Reliability requirements of the system equipment under long-term storage are put forward especially for the military products, so that the connectors in the equipment also need long-term storage life correspondingly. In this paper, the effects of stress relaxation of the elastic components on electrical contact of the connectors in long-term storage process were studied from the failure mechanism and degradation models. A wire spring connector was taken as an example to discuss the life prediction method for electrical contacts of the connectors based on stress relaxation degradation under long -term storage.

A test for the relative strength of maternal and stock effects in spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from two different hatcheries (Study site: Warm Springs Hatchery; Stocks: Warm Springs Hatchery and Carson Hatchery; Year class: 1993): Chapter 10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetzel, Lisa A.; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Stenberg, Karl D.; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Hayes, Michael C.

2012-01-01

An experiment was undertaken to determine the relative strength of maternal and stock effects in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) reared in a common environment, as a companion study to our investigation of hatchery and wild Chinook salmon. Pure-strain and reciprocal crosses were made between two hatchery stocks (Carson and Warm Springs National Fish Hatcheries). The offspring were reared together in one of the hatcheries to the smolt stage, and then were transferred to a seawater rearing facility (USGS-Marrowstone Field Station). Differences in survival, growth and disease prevalence were assessed. Fish with Carson parentage grew to greater size at the hatchery and in seawater than the pure-strain Warm Springs fish, but showed higher mortality at introduction to seawater. The analyses of maternal and stock effects were inconclusive, but the theoretical responses to different combinations of maternal and stock effects may be useful in interpreting stock comparison studies.

Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

PubMed

Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

2017-11-15

Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

Ion cyclotron waves near comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crary, F. J.; Dols, V. J.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Espley, J. R.

2014-12-01

On October 19, 2014, comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) passed approximately 135,000 km from Mars. Previously,we predicted the amplitude of ion cyclotron waves which might be observed during the Siding Spring encounter. Ioncyclotron waves have been observed both in the vicinity of comets and of Mars. These waves are generated by theionization of neutrals in the flowing solar wind, which produces an unstable ring-beam velocity distribution. We estimated that, for a production rate of 2x1028 s-1, ion cyclotron wave with amplitudes over 0.1 nT would be present within ‡5 hours (1.2 million km) of closest approach. We will compare the actual observations made by the MAVEN spacecraft with these predictions. The spacecraft was close to or downstream of the martian bow shock, which complicates the interpretation of the data. Taking thisinto account, we will describe the observations and their implications for wave activity and cometary neutral production. We also present updated hybrid simulations of ion cyclotron wave generation. The simulations use our best estimate of solar wind conditions at the time of the encounter and a variable injection of 18 AMU pickup ions, at a rates consistent a model of the cometary neutrals.

Variation in thermal tolerance and routine metabolism among spring- and stream-dwelling freshwater sculpins (Teleostei: Cottidae) of the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, S.J.; Haney, D.C.; Timmerman, C.M.

1997-01-01

Evolutionary theory predicts that some aquatic organisms may adapt by directional selection to limiting physical environmental conditions, yet empirical data are conflicting. We sought to test the assumption that sculpins (family Cottidae) inhabiting thermally stable springs of the southeastern United States differ in temperature tolerance and metabolism from populations inhabiting more thermally labile stream habitats. Spring populations of pygmy sculpins (Coitus pygmaeus) and Ozark sculpins (C. hypselurus) differed interspecifically in thermal tolerance from populations of stream-dwelling mottled (C. bairdi) and Tallapoosa sculpins (C. tallapoosae), and both stream and spring populations of banded sculpins (C. carolinae). No intra- or interspecific differences in thermal tolerance were found among populations of C. bairdi, C. tallapoosae, or C. carolinae. Coitus pygmaeus acclimated to 15??C differed intraspecifically in routine metabolism from fish acclimated to 20?? and 25??C. Cottus pygmaeus and stream-dwelling C. bairdi and C. carolinae acclimated to temperatures of 20?? and 25??C showed no interspecific differences in routine metabolism. Our results suggest that some spring-adapted populations or species may be more stenothermal than stream-dwelling congeners, but a greater understanding of the interactions of other physical and biological factors is required to better explain micro- and macrohabitat distributions of eastern North American sculpins.

Early snowmelt significantly enhances boreal springtime carbon uptake

PubMed Central

Pulliainen, Jouni; Aurela, Mika; Laurila, Tuomas; Aalto, Tuula; Takala, Matias; Salminen, Miia; Kulmala, Markku; Barr, Alan; Heimann, Martin; Lindroth, Anders; Laaksonen, Ari; Derksen, Chris; Mäkelä, Annikki; Markkanen, Tiina; Lemmetyinen, Juha; Susiluoto, Jouni; Dengel, Sigrid; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka; Vesala, Timo

2017-01-01

We determine the annual timing of spring recovery from space-borne microwave radiometer observations across northern hemisphere boreal evergreen forests for 1979–2014. We find a trend of advanced spring recovery of carbon uptake for this period, with a total average shift of 8.1 d (2.3 d/decade). We use this trend to estimate the corresponding changes in gross primary production (GPP) by applying in situ carbon flux observations. Micrometeorological CO2 measurements at four sites in northern Europe and North America indicate that such an advance in spring recovery would have increased the January–June GPP sum by 29 g⋅C⋅m−2 [8.4 g⋅C⋅m−2 (3.7%)/decade]. We find this sensitivity of the measured springtime GPP to the spring recovery to be in accordance with the corresponding sensitivity derived from simulations with a land ecosystem model coupled to a global circulation model. The model-predicted increase in springtime cumulative GPP was 0.035 Pg/decade [15.5 g⋅C⋅m−2 (6.8%)/decade] for Eurasian forests and 0.017 Pg/decade for forests in North America [9.8 g⋅C⋅m−2 (4.4%)/decade]. This change in the springtime sum of GPP related to the timing of spring snowmelt is quantified here for boreal evergreen forests. PMID:28973918

What Controls the Temperature of the Arctic Stratosphere during the Spring?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Statistical shape modelling to aid surgical planning: associations between surgical parameters and head shapes following spring-assisted cranioplasty.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Bruse, Jan L; Borghi, Alessandro; Vercruysse, Herman; Ong, Juling; James, Greg; Pennec, Xavier; Dunaway, David J; Jeelani, N U Owase; Schievano, Silvia

2017-10-01

Spring-assisted cranioplasty is performed to correct the long and narrow head shape of children with sagittal synostosis. Such corrective surgery involves osteotomies and the placement of spring-like distractors, which gradually expand to widen the skull until removal about 4 months later. Due to its dynamic nature, associations between surgical parameters and post-operative 3D head shape features are difficult to comprehend. The current study aimed at applying population-based statistical shape modelling to gain insight into how the choice of surgical parameters such as craniotomy size and spring positioning affects post-surgical head shape. Twenty consecutive patients with sagittal synostosis who underwent spring-assisted cranioplasty at Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children (London, UK) were prospectively recruited. Using a nonparametric statistical modelling technique based on mathematical currents, a 3D head shape template was computed from surface head scans of sagittal patients after spring removal. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was employed to quantify and visualise trends of localised head shape changes associated with the surgical parameters recorded during spring insertion: anterior-posterior and lateral craniotomy dimensions, anterior spring position and distance between anterior and posterior springs. Bivariate correlations between surgical parameters and corresponding PLS shape vectors demonstrated that anterior-posterior (Pearson's [Formula: see text]) and lateral craniotomy dimensions (Spearman's [Formula: see text]), as well as the position of the anterior spring ([Formula: see text]) and the distance between both springs ([Formula: see text]) on average had significant effects on head shapes at the time of spring removal. Such effects were visualised on 3D models. Population-based analysis of 3D post-operative medical images via computational statistical modelling tools allowed for detection of novel associations between surgical parameters and head shape features achieved following spring-assisted cranioplasty. The techniques described here could be extended to other cranio-maxillofacial procedures in order to assess post-operative outcomes and ultimately facilitate surgical decision making.

Seasonal Variation in 25(OH)D at Aberdeen (57°N) and Bone Health Indicators– Could Holidays in the Sun and Cod Liver Oil Supplements Alleviate Deficiency?

PubMed Central

Mavroeidi, Alexandra; Aucott, Lorna; Black, Alison J.; Fraser, William D.; Reid, David M.; Macdonald, Helen M.

2013-01-01

Vitamin D has been linked with many health outcomes. The aim of this longitudinal study, was to assess predictors of seasonal variation of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25(OH)D) (including use of supplements and holidays in sunny destinations) at a northerly latitude in the UK (57°N) in relation to bone health indicators. 365 healthy postmenopausal women (mean age 62.0 y (SD 1.4)) had 25(OH)D measurements by immunoassay, serum C-telopeptide (CTX), estimates of sunlight exposure (badges of polysulphone film), information regarding holidays in sunny destinations, and diet (from food diaries, including use of supplements such as cod liver oil (CLO)) at fixed 3-monthly intervals over 15 months (subject retention 88%) with an additional 25(OH)D assessment in spring 2008. Bone mineral density (BMD) at the lumbar spine (LS) and dual hip was measured in autumn 2006 and spring 2007 (Lunar I-DXA). Deficiency prevalence (25(OH)D<25 nmol/L) was reduced in women who went on holiday to sunny destinations 3 months prior to their visit, compared to women who did not go on holidays [5.4% vs. 24.6% in Spring (p<0.001) and 3.8% vs. 25.6% in Winter (p = 0.001), respectively]. Similarly deficiency was lower amongst those who took CLO supplements compared to women that did not consume these supplements [2.0% vs. 23.7% in Spring (p = 0.001) and 4.5% vs. 24.8% in winter (p = 0.005), respectively]. There was no seasonal variation in CTX; 25(OH)D predicted a small proportion (1.8% variation) of LS BMD in spring 2007 [unstandardized β (SE): 0.039 (0.016), p = 0.017]. Seasonal variation of 25(OH)D had little effect on BMD and no effect on CTX. It appears that small increments in vitamin D (e.g. those that can be achieved by cod liver oil supplements of 5 µg/day) are sufficient to ensure that 25(OH)D is above 25 nmol/L for most people throughout the year. Similarly, holidays in sunny destinations show benefit. PMID:23308207

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms.

PubMed

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-10-24

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = -0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world.

The PIG in sPrInG: evidence on letter grouping from the reading of buried words.

PubMed

Humphreys, Glyn W; Mayall, Kate; Cooper, Adam C G

2003-12-01

We introduce a novel procedure for investigating factors that determine selective attention to letters in words. Participants were presented with words (in Experiments 1 and 3) and nonwords (in Experiment 2) that contained a buried word whose letters differed in color relative to the other letters present (e.g., pig, in spring). The strings were presented in single case or mixed case, keeping the letters of the buried words in one case (SpRiNg). The time in which the whole stimulus was named was shorter for same-case than for mixed-case strings (for spring: spring < SpRiNg). In contrast, the time in which buried words were named was shorter in mixed- than in same-case strings (for pig: spring > SpRiNg). Across items, the effects of case mixing were negatively correlated across the two tasks. The positive effect of case mixing for buried words also occurred irrespective of whether the whole string was a word or a nonword, and there were contributions from similarity of both letter size and case. The results suggest that case mixing can facilitate selective attention to letters, which is otherwise disrupted by size- and case-based grouping across letter strings. The study provides evidence for letter grouping using size and case information.

Optimal Design of Spring Characteristics of Damper for Subharmonic Vibration in Automatic Transmission Powertrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakae, T.; Ryu, T.; Matsuzaki, K.; Rosbi, S.; Sueoka, A.; Takikawa, Y.; Ooi, Y.

2016-09-01

In the torque converter, the damper of the lock-up clutch is used to effectively absorb the torsional vibration. The damper is designed using a piecewise-linear spring with three stiffness stages. However, a nonlinear vibration, referred to as a subharmonic vibration of order 1/2, occurred around the switching point in the piecewise-linear restoring torque characteristics because of the nonlinearity. In the present study, we analyze vibration reduction for subharmonic vibration. The model used herein includes the torque converter, the gear train, and the differential gear. The damper is modeled by a nonlinear rotational spring of the piecewise-linear spring. We focus on the optimum design of the spring characteristics of the damper in order to suppress the subharmonic vibration. A piecewise-linear spring with five stiffness stages is proposed, and the effect of the distance between switching points on the subharmonic vibration is investigated. The results of our analysis indicate that the subharmonic vibration can be suppressed by designing a damper with five stiffness stages to have a small spring constant ratio between the neighboring springs. The distances between switching points must be designed to be large enough that the amplitude of the main frequency component of the systems does not reach the neighboring switching point.

Leg stiffness and stride frequency in human running.

PubMed

Farley, C T; González, O

1996-02-01

When humans and other mammals run, the body's complex system of muscle, tendon and ligament springs behaves like a single linear spring ('leg spring'). A simple spring-mass model, consisting of a single linear leg spring and a mass equivalent to the animal's mass, has been shown to describe the mechanics of running remarkably well. Force platform measurements from running animals, including humans, have shown that the stiffness of the leg spring remains nearly the same at all speeds and that the spring-mass system is adjusted for higher speeds by increasing the angle swept by the leg spring. The goal of the present study is to determine the relative importance of changes to the leg spring stiffness and the angle swept by the leg spring when humans alter their stride frequency at a given running speed. Human subjects ran on treadmill-mounted force platform at 2.5ms-1 while using a range of stride frequencies from 26% below to 36% above the preferred stride frequency. Force platform measurements revealed that the stiffness of the leg spring increased by 2.3-fold from 7.0 to 16.3 kNm-1 between the lowest and highest stride frequencies. The angle swept by the leg spring decreased at higher stride frequencies, partially offsetting the effect of the increased leg spring stiffness on the mechanical behavior of the spring-mass system. We conclude that the most important adjustment to the body's spring system to accommodate higher stride frequencies is that leg spring becomes stiffer.

A Modified Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar Approach for Mimicking Dynamic Oscillatory Stress Fluctuations During Earthquake Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braunagel, M. J.; Griffith, W. A.

2017-12-01

Past experimental work has demonstrated that rock failure at high strain rates occurs by fragmentation rather than discrete fracture and is accompanied by a dramatic increase in rock strength. However, these observations are difficult to reconcile with the assertion that pulverized rocks in fault zones are the product of impulsive stresses during the passage of earthquake ruptures, as the distance from the principal slip zones of some pulverized rock is too great to exceed fragmentation transition. One potential explanation to this paradox that has been suggested is that repeated loading over the course of multiple earthquake ruptures may gradually reduce the pulverization threshold, in terms of both strain rate and strength. We propose that oscillatory loading during a single earthquake rupture may further lower these pulverization thresholds, and that traditional dynamic experimental approaches, such as the Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) wherein load is applied as a single, smooth, sinusoidal compressive wave, may not reflect natural loading conditions. To investigate the effects of oscillatory compressive loading expected during earthquake rupture propagation, we develop a controlled cyclic loading model on a SHPB apparatus utilizing two striker bars connected by an elastic spring. Unlike traditional SHPB experiments that utilize a gas gun to fire a projectile bar and generate a single compressive wave on impact with the incident bar, our modified striker bar assembly oscillates while moving down the gun barrel and generates two separate compressive pulses separated by a lag time. By modeling the modified assembly as a mass-spring-mass assembly accelerating due to the force of the released gas, we can predict the compression time of the spring upon impact and therefore the time delay between the generation of the first and second compressive waves. This allows us to predictably control load cycles with durations of only a few hundred microseconds. Initial experimental results demonstrate that fragmentation of Westerly Granite samples occurs at lower stresses and strain rates than those expected from traditional SHPB experiments.

Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Salk, Carl F; Hoffmann, William A; Dunn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6-5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy. Warming advanced budburst of six deciduous woody species by 5-15 days and delayed leaf coloring by 18-21 days, resulting in an extension of the growing season by as much as 20-29 days. Spring temperature accumulation was strongly correlated with budburst date, but temperature alone cannot explain the diverse budburst responses observed among plant functional types. Ring-porous trees showed a consistent temperature response pattern across years, suggesting these species are sensitive to photoperiod. Conversely, diffuse-porous species responded differently between years, suggesting winter chilling may be more important in regulating budburst. Budburst of the ring-porous Quercus alba responded nonlinearly to warming, suggesting evolutionary constraints may limit changes in phenology, and therefore productivity, in the future. Warming caused a divergence in flowering times among species in the forest community, resulting in a longer flowering season by 10-16 days. Temperature was a good predictor of flowering for only four of the seven species studied here. Observations of interannual temperature variability overpredicted flowering responses in spring-blooming species, relative to our warming experiment, and did not consistently predict even the direction of flowering shifts. Experiments that push temperatures beyond historic variation are indispensable for improving predictions of future changes in phenology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal radon measurements in Darbandikhan Lake water resources at Kurdistan region-northeastern of Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafir, Adeeb Omer; Ahmad, Ali Hassan; Saridan, Wan Muhamad

2016-03-01

A total of 164 water samples were collected from Darbandikhan Lake with their different resources (spring, stream, and lake) during the four seasons, and the measurements were carried out using the electronic RAD 7 detector. For spring water the average radon concentration for spring, summer, autumn and summer were found to be 8.21 Bq/1, 8.94 Bq/1, 7.422 Bq/1, and 8.06 Bq/1, respectively, while for lake and streams the average values were found to be 0.43 Bq/1, 0.877 Bq/1, 0.727 Bq/1, 0.575 Bq/1 respectively. The radon concentration level was higher in summer and lower in spring, and only two samples from spring water have radon concentrations more than 11.1 Bq/1 recommended by the EPA. Total annual effective dose due to ingestion and inhalation has been estimated, the mean annual effective dose during the whole year for spring water was 0.022 mSv/y while for lake with streams was 0.00157 mSv/y. The determined mean annual effective dose in water was lower than the 0.1 mSv/y recommended by WHO. Some physicochemical parameters were measured and no correlation was found between them and radon concentration except for the conductivity of the spring drinking water which reveals a strong correlation for the four seasons.

Radioprotective Effects of Sulfur-containing Mineral Water of Ramsar Hot Spring with High Natural Background Radiation on Mouse Bone Marrow Cells.

PubMed

Heidari, A H; Shabestani Monfared, A; Mozdarani, H; Mahmoudzadeh, A; Razzaghdoust, A

2017-12-01

We intend to study the inhibitory effect of sulfur compound in Ramsar hot spring mineral on tumor-genesis ability of high natural background radiation. The radioprotective effect of sulfur compounds was previously shown on radiation-induced chromosomal aberration, micronuclei in mouse bone marrow cells and human peripheral lymphocyte. Ramsar is known for having the highest level of natural background radiation on Earth. This study was performed to show the radioprotective effect of sulfur-containing Ramsar mineral water on mouse bone marrow cells. Mice were fed three types of water (drinking water, Ramsar radioactive water containing sulfur and Ramsar radioactive water whose sulfur was removed). Ten days after feeding, mice were irradiated by gamma rays (0, 2 and 4 Gy). 48 and 72 hours after irradiating, mice were killed and femurs were removed. Frequency of micronuclei was determined in bone marrow erythrocytes. A significant reduction was shown in the rate of micronuclei polychromatic erythrocyte in sulfur-containing hot spring water compared to sulfur-free water in hot spring mineral water. Gamma irradiation induced significant increases in micronuclei polychromatic erythrocyte (MNPCE) and decreases in polychromatic erythrocyte/polychromatic erythrocyte + normochromatic erythrocyte ratio (PCEs/PCEs+NCEs) (P < 0.001) in sulfur-containing hot spring water compared to sulfur-free hot spring mineral water. Also, apparently there was a significant difference between drinking water and sulfur-containing hot spring water in micronuclei polychromatic erythrocyte and polychromatic erythrocyte/polychromatic erythrocyte+ normochromatic erythrocyte ratio. The results indicate that sulfur-containing mineral water could result in a significant reduction in radiation-induced micronuclei representing the radioprotective effect of sulfur compounds.

A Fresh Look at Longitudinal Standing Waves on a Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, Casey

2013-01-01

Transverse standing waves produced on a string, as shown in Fig. 1, are a common demonstration of standing wave patterns that have nodes at both ends. Longitudinal standing waves can be produced on a helical spring that is mounted vertically and attached to a speaker, as shown in Fig. 2, and used to produce both node-node (NN) and node-antinode (NA) standing waves. The resonant frequencies of the two standing wave patterns are related with theory that is accessible to students in algebra-based introductory physics courses, and actual measurements show good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow

PubMed Central

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-01-01

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5′-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change. PMID:28361883

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow.

PubMed

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-03-31

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5'-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change.

Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

PubMed

Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

2015-09-01

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effects of sectioning the spring ligament on rearfoot stability and posterior tibial tendon efficiency.

PubMed

Jennings, Meagan M; Christensen, Jeffery C

2008-01-01

Posterior tibial tendon insufficiency has been implicated as a cause of adult acquired flatfoot. Multiple theories are debated as to whether or not a flatfoot deformity develops secondary to insufficiency of the posterior tibial tendon or of the ligamentous structures such as the spring ligament complex. This cadaveric study was undertaken in an attempt to determine the effect that sectioning the spring ligament complex has on foot stability, and whether engagement of the posterior tibial tendon would be able to compensate for the loss of the spring ligament complex. A 3-dimensional kinematic system and a custom-loading frame were used to quantify rotation about the talus, navicular, and calcaneus in 5 cadaveric specimens, before and after sectioning the spring ligament complex, while incremental tension was applied to the posterior tibial tendon. This study demonstrated that sectioning the spring ligament complex created instability in the foot for which the posterior tibial tendon was unable to compensate. Sectioning the spring ligament complex also produced significant changes in talar, navicular, and calcaneal rotations. During simulated midstance, the navicular plantarflexed, adducted, and everted; the talar head plantarflexed, adducted, and inverted; and the calcaneus plantarflexed, abducted, and everted, after sectioning the spring ligament complex. The results of this study indicate that the spring ligament complex is the major stabilizer of the arch during midstance and that the posterior tibial tendon is incapable of fully accommodating for its insufficiency, suggesting that the spring ligament complex should be evaluated and, if indicated, repaired in flatfoot reconstruction. 5.

High-Resolution Modeling of the Predictability of Convective Systems, and Influences by Absorbing Aerosols Over Northern India and the Himalayas Foothills During Boreal Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K.-M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn; Tan, Qian; Chin, Mian; Matsui, Toshihisa; Bian, Huisheng

2011-01-01

The Himalayas foothills region (HFR) is an important component of the South Asian monsoon. To the south, the HFR borders the fertile, populous, and heavily polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). To the north, it rises to great height (approx. 4-5 km) to the Tibetan Plateau over a distance of less than 100 km. The HFR itself consists of complex mountainous terrain, with strong orographic forcing for precipitation. During the late spring and early summer, dust aerosol from the Thar and Middle East deserts , as well as moisture from the Arabian Sea were transported to the western part of the western part of the IGP and foothills spurs pre-monsoon severe thunderstorm over the region. During the monsoon season (mid June -August) convection from the Bay of Bengal, spread along the foothills northwestward to northern Pakistan. Recent climate model studies and preliminary observations have indicted not only the importance of dynamical forcing of precipitation in the HFR, but also possible strong impacts by the dense aerosols, from both local sources, and remote transport, that blanket the IGP from late spring up to the onset of the monsoon in June, and during monsoon breaks in July. In this work, we use the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (Nu-WRF) model to study the predictability ( 1-7 days) South Asian monsoon rainfall system. Results of 7 -day forecast experiments using an embedded domain of 27 km and 9 km resolution were conducted for the period June 11- July 15, 2008, with and without aerosol forcing are carried out to assess the intrinsic predictability of rainfall over the HFR, and possible impacts by aerosol direct effect, and possible connection of large-scale South Asian monsoon system.

Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

PubMed

Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

2016-09-01

Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attribution of spring snow water equivalent (SWE) changes over the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Naveed Khaliq, M.

2017-06-01

Snow is an important component of the cryosphere and it has a direct and important influence on water storage and supply in snowmelt-dominated regions. This study evaluates the temporal evolution of snow water equivalent (SWE) for the February-April spring period using the GlobSnow observation dataset for the 1980-2012 period. The analysis is performed for different regions of hemispherical to sub-continental scales for the Northern Hemisphere. The detection-attribution analysis is then performed to demonstrate anthropogenic and natural effects on spring SWE changes for different regions, by comparing observations with six CMIP5 model simulations for three different external forcings: all major anthropogenic and natural (ALL) forcings, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only, and natural forcing only. The observed spring SWE generally displays a decreasing trend, due to increasing spring temperatures. However, it exhibits a remarkable increasing trend for the southern parts of East Eurasia. The six CMIP5 models with ALL forcings reproduce well the observed spring SWE decreases at the hemispherical scale and continental scales, whereas important differences are noted for smaller regions such as southern and northern parts of East Eurasia and northern part of North America. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are clearly detected for the spring SWE decline at the hemispherical scale, based on multi-model ensemble signals. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings, however, are less clear for the smaller regions or with single-model signals, indicating the large uncertainty in regional SWE changes, possibly due to stronger influence of natural climate variability.

The Dynamic Characteristic and Hysteresis Effect of an Air Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löcken, F.; Welsch, M.

2015-02-01

In many applications of vibration technology, especially in chassis, air springs present a common alternative to steel spring concepts. A design-independent and therefore universal approach is presented to describe the dynamic characteristic of such springs. Differential and constitutive equations based on energy balances of the enclosed volume and the mountings are given to describe the nonlinear and dynamic characteristics. Therefore all parameters can be estimated directly from physical and geometrical properties, without parameter fitting. The numerically solved equations fit very well to measurements of a passenger car air spring. In a second step a simplification of this model leads to a pure mechanical equation. While in principle the same parameters are used, just an empirical correction of the effective heat transfer coefficient is needed to handle some simplification on this topic. Finally, a linearization of this equation leads to an analogous mechanical model that can be assembled from two common spring- and one dashpot elements in a specific arrangement. This transfer into "mechanical language" enables a system description with a simple force-displacement law and a consideration of the nonobvious hysteresis and stiffness increase of an air spring from a mechanical point of view.

A springs actuated finger exoskeleton: From mechanical design to spring variables evaluation.

PubMed

Bortoletto, Roberto; Mello, Ashley N; Piovesan, Davide

2017-07-01

In the context of post-stroke patients, suffering of hemiparesis of the hand, robot-aided neuro-motor rehabilitation allows for intensive rehabilitation treatments and quantitative evaluation of patients' progresses. This work presents the design and evaluation of a spring actuated finger exoskeleton. In particular, the spring variables and the interaction forces between the assembly and the hand were investigated, in order to assess the effectiveness of the proposed exoskeleton.

75 FR 76293 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Peach Springs, AZ

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-08

...] Radio Broadcasting Services; Peach Springs, AZ AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Final... 281C3 at Peach Springs, Arizona, in order to maintain a first local service at that community. Channel... following reference coordinates: 35-33-46 North Latitude and 113-27-12 West Longitude. DATES: Effective...

GIS-based groundwater potential analysis using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence with logistic regression and functional tree models.

PubMed

Chen, Wei; Li, Hui; Hou, Enke; Wang, Shengquan; Wang, Guirong; Panahi, Mahdi; Li, Tao; Peng, Tao; Guo, Chen; Niu, Chao; Xiao, Lele; Wang, Jiale; Xie, Xiaoshen; Ahmad, Baharin Bin

2018-09-01

The aim of the current study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence (WoE) with logistic regression (LR) and functional tree (FT) models. First, a total of 66 springs were identified by field surveys, out of which 70% of the spring locations were used for training the models and 30% of the spring locations were employed for the validation process. Second, a total of 14 affecting factors including aspect, altitude, slope, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), sediment transport index (STI), lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use, soil, distance to roads, and distance to streams was used to analyze the spatial relationship between these affecting factors and spring occurrences. Multicollinearity analysis and feature selection of the correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) method were employed to optimize the affecting factors. Subsequently, the novel ensembles of the WoE, LR, and FT models were constructed using the training dataset. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, standard error, confidence interval (CI) at 95%, and significance level P were employed to validate and compare the performance of three models. Overall, all three models performed well for groundwater spring potential evaluation. The prediction capability of the FT model, with the highest AUC values, the smallest standard errors, the narrowest CIs, and the smallest P values for the training and validation datasets, is better compared to those of other models. The groundwater spring potential maps can be adopted for the management of water resources and land use by planners and engineers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

2017-09-01

Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, M. I.; Wahl, L. M.

2016-01-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of ‘spring dwindle’, which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past. PMID:28018627

Predicting consumers' intention to consume ready-to-eat meals. The role of moral attitude.

PubMed

Olsen, Nina Veflen; Sijtsema, Siet J; Hall, Gunnar

2010-12-01

This study investigates the usefulness of integrating moral attitude into the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model when predicting intention to consume ready-to-eat (RTE) meals. Questionnaire data were gathered in three countries: Norway (N = 112), The Netherlands (N = 99), and Finland (N = 134) in spring 2009. A stepwise hierarchical regression was conducted, and the analyses showed that moral attitude is an important predictor of RTE-meal consumption. The feeling of moral obligation, operationalised as a negative feeling of guilt, had a negative effect on peoples' intention to consume ready meals in all the three countries tested, and the explained variance (R²) for TPB increased when moral was added as an explanatory factor. However, although the test showed significant results for the effect of attitude towards behavior and moral in all countries, non-significant results were observed for the effect of subjective norm in both The Netherlands and Norway when moral attitude was included to the TPB-model, indicating cultural differences in the social pressure towards ready meal consumption. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive Validity Study of the APS Writing and Reading Tests [and] Validating Placement Rules for the APS Writing Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

College of the Canyons, Valencia, CA. Office of Institutional Development.

California's College of the Canyons has used the College Board Assessment and Placement Services (APS) test to assess students' abilities in basic and college English since spring 1993. These two reports summarize data from a May 1994 study of the predictive validity of the APS writing and reading tests and a June 1994 effort to validate the cut…

Predicting the At Risk Status of College Students: Males and Students with Disabilities. Final Report Presented to PAREA, Spring 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jorgensen, Shirley; Fichten, Catherine; Havel, Alice

2009-01-01

The main aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of why students abandon their studies, or perform less well than expected given their high school grades, and to develop predictive models that can help identify those students most at-risk at the time they enter college. This will allow teachers and those responsible for student…

Assessing the ability of operational snow models to predict snowmelt runoff extremes (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Restrepo, P. J.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

In the western US, the snow accumulation and melt cycle of winter and spring plays a critical role in the region's water management strategies. Consequently, the ability to predict snowmelt runoff at time scales from days to seasons is a key input for decisions in reservoir management, whether for avoiding flood hazards or supporting environmental flows through the scheduling of releases in spring, or for allocating releases for multi-state water distribution in dry seasons of year (using reservoir systems to provide an invaluable buffer for many sectors against drought). Runoff forecasts thus have important benefits at both wet and dry extremes of the climatological spectrum. The importance of the prediction of the snow cycle motivates an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the US's central operational snow model, SNOW17, in contrast to process-modeling alternatives, as they relate to simulating observed snowmelt variability and extremes. To this end, we use a flexible modeling approach that enables an investigation of different choices in model structure, including model physics, parameterization and degree of spatiotemporal discretization. We draw from examples of recent extreme events in western US watersheds and an overall assessment of retrospective model performance to identify fruitful avenues for advancing the modeling basis for the operational prediction of snow-related runoff extremes.

High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario.

PubMed

Hadano, Mayumi; Nasahara, Kenlo Nishida; Motohka, Takeshi; Noda, Hibiki Muraoka; Murakami, Kazutaka; Hosaka, Masahiro

2013-06-01

Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains.

Patterns and variability in seedling carbon assimilation: implications for tree recruitment under climate change.

PubMed

Peltier, Drew M P; Ibáñez, Inés

2015-01-01

Predicting future forests' structure and functioning is a critical goal for ecologists, thus information on seedling recruitment will be crucial in determining the composition and structure of future forest ecosystems. In particular, seedlings' photosynthetic response to a changing environment will be a key component determining whether particular species establish enough individuals to maintain populations, as growth is a major determinant of survival. We quantified photosynthetic responses of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), pignut hickory (Carya glabra Mill.), northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) and eastern black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.) seedlings to environmental conditions including light habitat, temperature, soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) using extensive in situ gas exchange measurements spanning an entire growing season. We estimated the parameters in a hierarchical Bayesian version of the Farquhar model of photosynthesis, additionally informed by soil moisture and VPD, and found that maximum Rubisco carboxylation (V(cmax)) and electron transport (J(max)) rates showed significant seasonal variation, but not the peaked patterns observed in studies of adult trees. Vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture limited J(max) and V(cmax) for all four species. Predictions indicate large declines in summer carbon assimilation rates under a 3 °C increase in mean annual temperature projected by climate models, while spring and fall assimilation rates may increase. Our model predicts decreases in summer assimilation rates in gap habitats with at least 90% probability, and with 20-99.9% probability in understory habitats depending on species. Predictions also show 70% probability of increases in fall and 52% probability in spring in understory habitats. All species were impacted, but our findings suggest that oak species may be favored in northeastern North America under projected increases in temperature due to superior assimilation rates under these conditions, though as growing seasons become longer, the effects of climate change on seedling photosynthesis may be complex. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bioacoustic monitoring of nocturnal songbird migration in a southern great lakes ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Claire Elizabeth

Many species of birds produce short vocalizations during nocturnal migration. My thesis uses bioacoustic monitoring of these night flight calls to study bird migration through a southern Great Lakes ecosystem. I deployed recording devices around western Lake Erie during spring and fall migrations. Analysis of thousands of hours of recordings revealed that night flight calls accurately predicted both the magnitude of migration, as well as the timing of migrant passage, as assessed by banding. The first arrival dates for 48 species of migratory birds were significantly earlier on Pelee Island than on mainland Ontario in the spring. More flight calls were detected over Pelee Island than over mainland comparison sites. These results suggest that many birds cross Lake Erie in spring and fall, and that islands are important for migratory birds. This research provides insight into the use of acoustics for monitoring birds in active migration.

Estimating shorebird populations during spring stopover in rice fields of the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norling, Wayne; Jeske, Clinton W.; Thigpen, Tyler F.; Chadwick, Paul C.

2012-01-01

Migrating shorebird populations using approximately 2% of Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coastal rice fields were surveyed during spring migration (March–May of 1997 and 1998) using biweekly stratified random surveys conducted at 50 roadside survey points and approximately 30,000 shorebirds were observed. Shorebird counts were extrapolated and almost 1.4 million birds in 1997 and over 1.6 million birds of 31 species in 1998 were estimated to use rice field habitat for stopover sites in Louisiana and Texas. Greater than 50% of the estimated North American populations were estimated to use rice field habitats for five species, including a species of concern, Buff-breasted Sandpiper (Tryngites subruficollis) at 187%. Because of predictability of suitable rice field habitat acreage, timing of field preparation and water availability, coastal rice prairies are identified as critical spring migration stopover sites.

Slip-spring model of entangled rod-coil block copolymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Muzhou; Likhtman, Alexei E.; Olsen, Bradley D.

2015-03-01

Understanding the dynamics of rod-coil block copolymers is important for optimal design of functional nanostructured materials for organic electronics and biomaterials. Recently, we proposed a reptation theory of entangled rod-coil block copolymers, predicting the relaxation mechanisms of activated reptation and arm retraction that slow rod-coil dynamics relative to coil and rod homopolymers, respectively. In this work, we introduce a coarse-grained slip-spring model of rod-coil block copolymers to further explore these mechanisms. First, parameters of the coarse-grained model are tuned to match previous molecular dynamics simulation results for coils, rods, and block copolymers. For activated reptation, rod-coil copolymers are shown to disfavor configurations where the rod occupies curved portions of the entanglement tube of randomly varying curvature created by the coil ends. The effect of these barriers on diffusion is quantitatively captured by considering one-dimensional motion along an entanglement tube with a rough free energy potential. Finally, we analyze the crossover between the two mechanisms. The resulting dynamics from both mechanisms acting in combination is faster than from each one individually.

Seasonal Changes in Titan's Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennins, Donald E.; Cottini, V.; Nixon, C. A.; Flasar, F. M.; Kunde, V. G.; Samuelson, R. E.; Romani, P. N.; Hesman, B. E.; Carlson, R. C.; Gorius, N. J. P.;

On the relationship between the early spring Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chenxu; Zhang, Yuanzhi; Cheng, Qiuming; Li, Yu; Jiang, Tingchen; San Liang, X.

2018-05-01

In this study, we evaluated the effects of springtime Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) on the Tibetan Plateau's role as atmospheric heat source (AHS) in summer. The SST data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) and the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for 33 years (from 1979 to 2011) were used to analyze the relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and the Tibetan Plateau's AHS in summer, using the approaches that include correlation analysis, and lead-lag analysis. Our results show that some certain strong oceanic SSTs affect the summer plateau heat, specially finding that the early spring SSTs of the Indian Ocean significantly affect the plateau's ability to serve as a heat source in summer. Moreover, the anomalous atmospheric circulation and transport of water vapor are related to the Plateau heat variation.

Modeling of Non-isothermal Austenite Formation in Spring Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, He; Wang, Baoyu; Tang, Xuefeng; Li, Junling

2017-12-01

The austenitization kinetics description of spring steel 60Si2CrA plays an important role in providing guidelines for industrial production. The dilatometric curves of 60Si2CrA steel were measured using a dilatometer DIL805A at heating rates of 0.3 K to 50 K/s (0.3 °C/s to 50 °C/s). Based on the dilatometric curves, a unified kinetics model using the internal state variable (ISV) method was derived to describe the non-isothermal austenitization kinetics of 60Si2CrA, and the abovementioned model models the incubation and transition periods. The material constants in the model were determined using a genetic algorithm-based optimization technique. Additionally, good agreement between predicted and experimental volume fractions of transformed austenite was obtained, indicating that the model is effective for describing the austenitization kinetics of 60Si2CrA steel. Compared with other modeling methods of austenitization kinetics, this model, which uses the ISV method, has some advantages, such as a simple formula and explicit physics meaning, and can be probably used in engineering practice.

Predictors of early growth in academic achievement: the head-toes-knees-shoulders task

PubMed Central

McClelland, Megan M.; Cameron, Claire E.; Duncan, Robert; Bowles, Ryan P.; Acock, Alan C.; Miao, Alicia; Pratt, Megan E.

2014-01-01

Children's behavioral self-regulation and executive function (EF; including attentional or cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control) are strong predictors of academic achievement. The present study examined the psychometric properties of a measure of behavioral self-regulation called the Head-Toes-Knees-Shoulders (HTKS) by assessing construct validity, including relations to EF measures, and predictive validity to academic achievement growth between prekindergarten and kindergarten. In the fall and spring of prekindergarten and kindergarten, 208 children (51% enrolled in Head Start) were assessed on the HTKS, measures of cognitive flexibility, working memory (WM), and inhibitory control, and measures of emergent literacy, mathematics, and vocabulary. For construct validity, the HTKS was significantly related to cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control in prekindergarten and kindergarten. For predictive validity in prekindergarten, a random effects model indicated that the HTKS significantly predicted growth in mathematics, whereas a cognitive flexibility task significantly predicted growth in mathematics and vocabulary. In kindergarten, the HTKS was the only measure to significantly predict growth in all academic outcomes. An alternative conservative analytical approach, a fixed effects analysis (FEA) model, also indicated that growth in both the HTKS and measures of EF significantly predicted growth in mathematics over four time points between prekindergarten and kindergarten. Results demonstrate that the HTKS involves cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control, and is substantively implicated in early achievement, with the strongest relations found for growth in achievement during kindergarten and associations with emergent mathematics. PMID:25071619

Potentiation of ecological factors on the disruption of thyroid hormones by organo-halogenated contaminants in female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Barents Sea.

PubMed

Bourgeon, Sophie; Riemer, Astrid Kolind; Tartu, Sabrina; Aars, Jon; Polder, Anuschka; Jenssen, Bjørn Munro; Routti, Heli

2017-10-01

As apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are among the most heavily polluted organisms in the Arctic. In addition to this anthropogenic stressor, climate warming has been shown to negatively affect their body condition, reproductive output and survival. Among potential underlying physiological mechanisms, thyroid hormones (THs), which control thermoregulation, metabolism and reproduction, can be affected by a variety of both natural and anthropogenic factors. While THs have been extensively used as proxies for pollution exposure in mammals, including polar bears, there is a lack of knowledge of their natural variations. In this context, we examined seasonal variations in body condition and circulating TH concentrations in free-ranging female polar bears. Females with variable reproductive status (i.e., solitary, with cubs of the year or with yearlings) were sampled from locations with contrasted sea ice conditions. Furthermore, we studied THs in relation to levels of organo-halogenated contaminants. As predicted, solitary females were in better condition than females caring for offspring, especially in spring. In addition, TH levels were lower in autumn compared to spring, although this seasonal effect was mainly observed in solitary females. Finally, the negative relationships between organochlorine and perfluoroalkyl substances and some THs suggest a possible alteration of homeostasis of THs. Since the latter relationships were only observed during spring, we emphasize the importance of considering the ecological factors when using THs as proxies for pollution exposure. Yet, the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on THs might impair the ability of polar bears to adapt to ongoing climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

River stage influences on uranium transport in a hydrologically dynamic groundwater-surface water transition zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zachara, John M.; Chen, Xingyuan; Murray, Chris

In this study, a well-field within a uranium (U) plume in the groundwater-surface water transition zone was monitored for a 3 year period for water table elevation and dissolved solutes. The plume discharges to the Columbia River, which displays a dramatic spring stage surge resulting from snowmelt. Groundwater exhibits a low hydrologic gradient and chemical differences with river water. River water intrudes the site in spring. Specific aims were to assess the impacts of river intrusion on dissolved uranium (U aq), specific conductance (SpC), and other solutes, and to discriminate between transport, geochemical, and source term heterogeneity effects. Time seriesmore » trends for U aq and SpC were complex and displayed large temporal and well-to-well variability as a result of water table elevation fluctuations, river water intrusion, and changes in groundwater flow directions. The wells were clustered into subsets exhibiting common behaviors resulting from the intrusion dynamics of river water and the location of source terms. Hot-spots in U aq varied in location with increasing water table elevation through the combined effects of advection and source term location. Heuristic reactive transport modeling with PFLOTRAN demonstrated that mobilized U aq was transported between wells and source terms in complex trajectories, and was diluted as river water entered and exited the groundwater system. While U aq time-series concentration trends varied significantly from year-to-year as a result of climate-caused differences in the spring hydrograph, common and partly predictable response patterns were observed that were driven by water table elevation, and the extent and duration of river water intrusion.« less

The effect of extreme spring weather on body condition and stress physiology in Lapland longspurs and white-crowned sparrows breeding in the Arctic.

PubMed

Krause, Jesse S; Pérez, Jonathan H; Chmura, Helen E; Sweet, Shannan K; Meddle, Simone L; Hunt, Kathleen E; Gough, Laura; Boelman, Natalie; Wingfield, John C

2016-10-01

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in temperature while also increasing the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather. In the northern hemisphere, the spring of 2013 was characterized as extreme due to record high snow cover and low temperatures. Studies that describe the effects of extreme weather on phenology across taxa are limited while morphological and physiological responses remain poorly understood. Stress physiology, as measured through baseline and stress-induced concentrations of cortisol or corticosterone, has often been studied to understand how organisms respond to environmental stressors. We compared body condition and stress physiology of two long-distance migrants breeding in low arctic Alaska - the white-crowned sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys) and Lapland longspur (Calcarius lapponicus) - in 2013, an extreme weather year, with three more typical years (2011, 2012, and 2014). The extended snow cover in spring 2013 caused measureable changes in phenology, body condition and physiology. Arrival timing for both species was delayed 4-5days compared to the other three years. Lapland longspurs had reduced fat stores, pectoralis muscle profiles, body mass, and hematocrit levels, while stress-induced concentrations of corticosterone were increased. Similarly, white-crowned sparrows had reduced pectoralis muscle profiles and hematocrit levels, but in contrast to Lapland longspurs, had elevated fat stores and no difference in mass or stress physiology relative to other study years. An understanding of physiological mechanisms that regulate coping strategies is of critical importance for predicting how species will respond to the occurrence of extreme events in the future due to global climate change. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

River stage influences on uranium transport in a hydrologically dynamic groundwater-surface water transition zone

DOE PAGES

Zachara, John M.; Chen, Xingyuan; Murray, Chris; ...

2016-03-04

In this study, a well-field within a uranium (U) plume in the groundwater-surface water transition zone was monitored for a 3 year period for water table elevation and dissolved solutes. The plume discharges to the Columbia River, which displays a dramatic spring stage surge resulting from snowmelt. Groundwater exhibits a low hydrologic gradient and chemical differences with river water. River water intrudes the site in spring. Specific aims were to assess the impacts of river intrusion on dissolved uranium (U aq), specific conductance (SpC), and other solutes, and to discriminate between transport, geochemical, and source term heterogeneity effects. Time seriesmore » trends for U aq and SpC were complex and displayed large temporal and well-to-well variability as a result of water table elevation fluctuations, river water intrusion, and changes in groundwater flow directions. The wells were clustered into subsets exhibiting common behaviors resulting from the intrusion dynamics of river water and the location of source terms. Hot-spots in U aq varied in location with increasing water table elevation through the combined effects of advection and source term location. Heuristic reactive transport modeling with PFLOTRAN demonstrated that mobilized U aq was transported between wells and source terms in complex trajectories, and was diluted as river water entered and exited the groundwater system. While U aq time-series concentration trends varied significantly from year-to-year as a result of climate-caused differences in the spring hydrograph, common and partly predictable response patterns were observed that were driven by water table elevation, and the extent and duration of river water intrusion.« less

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long-lived amphibian.

PubMed

Cayuela, Hugo; Arsovski, Dragan; Thirion, Jean-Marc; Bonnaire, Eric; Pichenot, Julian; Boitaud, Sylvain; Miaud, Claude; Joly, Pierre; Besnard, Aurélien

2016-08-01

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long-lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long-lived amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture-recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context-dependent variation in demographic processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of peer instruction in the laboratory task of measuring the effective mass of a spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chun-Ling; Hou, Zhen-Yu; Si, Yu-Chang; Wen, Xiao-Qing; Tang, Lei

2017-11-01

Peer instruction (PI) is an effective interactive approach to teaching and learning that has principally been used to modify the experience of learning in traditional physics lecture settings. This article further illustrates how the concept of PI can be effectively applied in the physics student laboratory setting. The setting used is a laboratory task that calls for the measurement of the effective mass of the spring of a Jolly balance. Through PI the students gain a better understanding of what is meant by the construct ‘effective mass of a spring’, and thereby competently work out how the mass, shape, wire diameter, and number of turns of the spring can all affect the effective mass of the spring. Furthermore, using stopwatches the students were also able to appreciate how recorded times at the equilibrium position had greater uncertainty than measurements made at the maximum displacement. This led to their calculations of the effective mass of the spring being impressively close to the theoretical value. Such laboratory tasks are extremely challenging to introductory level students and the success attained by the students in this study indicates that there is much potential in the application of PI in laboratory settings. PI should be used to teach in the laboratory and results should be reported in order for our community to build on these experiences. This article is a contribution to that effort.

Myxomatosis: changes in the epidemiology of myxomatosis coincident with the establishment of the European rabbit flea Spilopsyllus cuniculi (Dale) in the Mallee region of Victoria

PubMed Central

Shepherd, Rosamond C. H.; Edmonds, J. W.

1978-01-01

Outbreaks of myxomatosis during the winter or spring have coincided with the establishment of the European rabbit flea in the Mallee region. The severity of these outbreaks has varied from causing complete suppression of the normal spring increase in rabbit numbers to being completely ineffective in a year in which late spring rains allowed rabbit breeding to extend into the early summer. In 1973 and 1974 effective spring myxomatosis caused heavy mortality in kittens before they emerged from the warrens. The age of the population increased as the result of few young rabbits coming into the population and of the lessened stress on old rabbits in a low summer—autumn population. This effect was reversed in the late-breeding year, 1976, when flea numbers were apparently too low to maintain a spring outbreak and rabbit numbers increased rapidly. PMID:569676

Myxomatosis: changes in the epidemiology of myxomatosis coincident with the establishment of the European rabbit flea Spilopsyllus cuniculi (Dale) in the Mallee region of Victoria.

PubMed

Shepherd, R C; Edmonds, J W

1978-12-01

Outbreaks of myxomatosis during the winter or spring have coincided with the establishment of the European rabbit flea in the Mallee region. The severity of these outbreaks has varied from causing complete suppression of the normal spring increase in rabbit numbers to being completely ineffective in a year in which late spring rains allowed rabbit breeding to extend into the early summer.In 1973 and 1974 effective spring myxomatosis caused heavy mortality in kittens before they emerged from the warrens. The age of the population increased as the result of few young rabbits coming into the population and of the lessened stress on old rabbits in a low summer-autumn population. This effect was reversed in the late-breeding year, 1976, when flea numbers were apparently too low to maintain a spring outbreak and rabbit numbers increased rapidly.

Sensitivity of Net Ecosystem Exchange to Climate Variability Depends on Plant Functional Type in Boreal Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welp, L. R.; Liu, H.; Randerson, J. T.

2005-12-01

Recent increases in growing season length at high northern latitudes may allow for greater rates of photosynthesis and carbon accumulation during spring and summer. However, warmer air and soil temperatures may also stimulate higher rates of respiration in boreal and arctic ecosystems. The net effect of these different processes on biome-level carbon fluxes remains challenging to predict. We measured carbon fluxes in three interior Alaskan stands for three years (2002-2004) to test the hypothesis that NEE in early and mid successional ecosystems is more sensitive to climate variability than NEE of older, mature ecosystems. The stands represented a chronosequence of recovery after fire with burn events in 1920 (black spruce and moss), 1987 (aspen and willow) and 1999 (grasses and deciduous shrubs). In 2002, the region experienced a cool, moderately wet spring and wet summer. In contrast, 2003 had a warm, dry spring and dry summer. In 2004, the spring was the warmest and wettest of all three years and a severe summer drought followed. Spring air temperature increased during each year of the study with April-May means of 6.4°C in 2002, 7.7°C in 2003 and 9.9°C in 2004. In each stand, warmer spring temperatures increased spring GPP, as has been reported for other northern forests, and also led to increased carbon uptake at the aspen stand with May-June NEE values of -72, -106 and -138 g C m-2. In contrast, May-June NEE at the black spruce stand increased from -94 g C m-2 in 2002 to -110 g C m-2 in 2003, but returned to -96 g C m-2 in 2004 as Re increased in response to warmer soil temperatures during that year. Sensitivity of spring NEE to climate variability was greatest at the intermediate aged aspen stand. Using a simple atmospheric model, we also found that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 was more sensitive to climate variability when forced with fluxes from the aspen stand than from the black spruce stand. During each year, we observed mid-summer depressions of carbon uptake rates at the black spruce stand. Despite the 2004 summer drought, Jul-Aug GPP and Re both increased in 2004, resulting in Jul-Aug NEE values comparable to 2003 (-57 and -59 g C m-2 for the black spruce in 2003 and 2004 respectively and -124 and -120 g C m-2 for the aspen), both of which were less than the wet cool summer of 2002 (-76 g C m-2 for the black spruce and -156 g C m-2 for the aspen). Warm springs and cool summers tended to promote carbon uptake in these ecosystems.

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms

PubMed Central

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-01-01

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = −0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world. PMID:25343265

From field to region yield predictions in response to pedo-climatic variations in Eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JÉGO, G.; Pattey, E.; Liu, J.

2013-12-01

The increase in global population coupled with new pressures to produce energy and bioproducts from agricultural land requires an increase in crop productivity. However, the influence of climate and soil variations on crop production and environmental performance is not fully understood and accounted for to define more sustainable and economical management strategies. Regional crop modeling can be a great tool for understanding the impact of climate variations on crop production, for planning grain handling and for assessing the impact of agriculture on the environment, but it is often limited by the availability of input data. The STICS ("Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard") crop model, developed by INRA (France) is a functional crop model which has a built-in module to optimize several input parameters by minimizing the difference between calculated and measured output variables, such as Leaf Area Index (LAI). STICS crop model was adapted to the short growing season of the Mixedwood Plains Ecozone using field experiments results, to predict biomass and yield of soybean, spring wheat and corn. To minimize the numbers of inference required for regional applications, 'generic' cultivars rather than specific ones have been calibrated in STICS. After the calibration of several model parameters, the root mean square error (RMSE) of yield and biomass predictions ranged from 10% to 30% for the three crops. A bit more scattering was obtained for LAI (20%

Superior bit error rate and jitter due to improved switching field distribution in exchange spring magnetic recording media

PubMed Central

Suess, D.; Fuger, M.; Abert, C.; Bruckner, F.; Vogler, C.

2016-01-01

We report two effects that lead to a significant reduction of the switching field distribution in exchange spring media. The first effect relies on a subtle mechanism of the interplay between exchange coupling between soft and hard layers and anisotropy that allows significant reduction of the switching field distribution in exchange spring media. This effect reduces the switching field distribution by about 30% compared to single-phase media. A second effect is that due to the improved thermal stability of exchange spring media over single-phase media, the jitter due to thermal fluctuation is significantly smaller for exchange spring media than for single-phase media. The influence of this overall improved switching field distribution on the transition jitter in granular recording and the bit error rate in bit-patterned magnetic recording is discussed. The transition jitter in granular recording for a distribution of Khard values of 3% in the hard layer, taking into account thermal fluctuations during recording, is estimated to be a = 0.78 nm, which is similar to the best reported calculated jitter in optimized heat-assisted recording media. PMID:27245287

Effect of Stacking Layup on Spring-back Deformation of Symmetrical Flat Laminate Composites Manufactured through Autoclave Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, M. N. M.; Seman, M. A.; Mezeix, L.; Aminanda, Y.; Rivai, A.; Ali, K. M.

2017-03-01

The residual stresses that develop within fibre-reinforced laminate composites during autoclave processing lead to dimensional warpage known as spring-back deformation. A number of experiments have been conducted on flat laminate composites with unidirectional fibre orientation to examine the effects of both the intrinsic and extrinsic parameters on the warpage. This paper extends the study on to the symmetrical layup effect on spring-back for flat laminate composites. Plies stacked at various symmetrical sequences were fabricated to observe the severity of the resulting warpage. Essentially, the experimental results demonstrated that the symmetrical layups reduce the laminate stiffness in its principal direction compared to the unidirectional laminate thus, raising the spring-back warpage with the exception of the [45/-45]S layup due to its quasi-isotropic property.

Climate control of decadal-scale increases in apparent ages of eogenetic karst spring water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Jonathan B.; Kurz, Marie J.; Khadka, Mitra B.

2016-09-01

Water quantity and quality in karst aquifers may depend on decadal-scale variations in recharge or withdrawal, which we hypothesize could be assessed through time-series measurements of apparent ages of spring water. We tested this hypothesis with analyses of various age tracers (3H/3He, SF6, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113) and selected solute concentrations [dissolved oxygen (DO), NO3, Mg, and SO4] from 6 springs in a single spring complex (Ichetucknee springs) in northern Florida over a 16-yr period. These springs fall into two groups that reflect shallow short (Group 1) and deep long (Group 2) flow paths. Some tracer concentrations are altered, with CFC-12 and CFC-113 concentrations yielding the most robust apparent ages. These tracers show a 10-20-yr monotonic increase in apparent age from 1997 to 2013, including the flood recession that followed Tropical Storm Debby in mid-2012. This increase in age indicates most water discharged during the study period recharged the aquifer within a few years of 1973 for Group 2 springs and 1980 for Group 1 springs. Inverse correlations between apparent age and DO and NO3 concentrations reflect reduced redox state in older water. Positive correlations between apparent age and Mg and SO4 concentrations reflect increased water-rock reactions. Concentrated recharge in the decade around 1975 resulted from nearly 2 m of rain in excess of the monthly average that fell between 1960 and 2014, followed by a nearly 4 m deficit to 2014. This excess rain coincided with two major El Niño events during the maximum cool phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Although regional water withdrawal increased nearly 5-fold between 1980 and 2005, withdrawals represent only 2-5% of Ichetucknee River flow and are less important than decadal-long variations in precipitation. These results suggest that groundwater management should consider climate cycles as predictive tools for future water resources.

The effects of extinction-aroused attention on context conditioning.

PubMed

Nelson, James Byron; Fabiano, Andrew M; Lamoureux, Jeffrey A

2018-04-01

Two experiments assessed the effects of extinguishing a conditioned cue on subsequent context conditioning. Each experiment used a different video-game method where sensors predicted attacking spaceships and participants responded to the sensor in a way that prepared them for the upcoming attack. In Experiment 1 extinction of a cue which signaled a spaceship-attack outcome facilitated subsequent learning when the attack occurred unsignaled. In Experiment 2 extinction of a cue facilitated subsequent learning, regardless of whether the spaceship outcome was the same or different as used in the earlier training. In neither experiment did the extinction context become inhibitory. Results are discussed in terms of current associative theories of attention and conditioning. © 2018 Nelson et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Long-life mission reliability for outer planet atmospheric entry probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccall, M. T.; Rouch, L.; Maycock, J. N.

1976-01-01

The results of a literature analysis on the effects of prolonged exposure to deep space environment on the properties of outer planet atmospheric entry probe components are presented. Materials considered included elastomers and plastics, pyrotechnic devices, thermal control components, metal springs and electronic components. The rates of degradation of each component were determined and extrapolation techniques were used to predict the effects of exposure for up to eight years to deep space. Pyrotechnic devices were aged under accelerated conditions to an equivalent of eight years in space and functionally tested. Results of the literature analysis of the selected components and testing of the devices indicated that no severe degradation should be expected during an eight year space mission.

Effect of molecular topology on the transport properties of dendrimers in dilute solution at Θ temperature: A Brownian dynamics study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosko, Jaroslaw T.; Ravi Prakash, J.

2008-01-01

Structure and transport properties of dendrimers in dilute solution are studied with the aid of Brownian dynamics simulations. To investigate the effect of molecular topology on the properties, linear chain, star, and dendrimer molecules of comparable molecular weights are studied. A bead-spring chain model with finitely extensible springs and fluctuating hydrodynamic interactions is used to represent polymer molecules under Θ conditions. Structural properties as well as the diffusivity and zero-shear-rate intrinsic viscosity of polymers with varied degrees of branching are analyzed. Results for the free-draining case are compared to and found in very good agreement with the Rouse model predictions. Translational diffusivity is evaluated and the difference between the short-time and long-time behavior due to dynamic correlations is observed. Incorporation of hydrodynamic interactions is found to be sufficient to reproduce the maximum in the intrinsic viscosity versus molecular weight observed experimentally for dendrimers. Results of the nonequilibrium Brownian dynamics simulations of dendrimers and linear chain polymers subjected to a planar shear flow in a wide range of strain rates are also reported. The flow-induced molecular deformation of molecules is found to decrease hydrodynamic interactions and lead to the appearance of shear thickening. Further, branching is found to suppress flow-induced molecular alignment and deformation.

The carry-over effects of school gardens on fruit and vegetable availability at home: A randomized controlled trial with low-income elementary schools.

PubMed

Wells, Nancy M; Meyers, Beth M; Todd, Lauren E; Henderson, Charles R; Barale, Karen; Gaolach, Brad; Ferenz, Gretchen; Aitken, Martha; Tse, Caroline C; Pattison, Karen Ostlie; Hendrix, Laura; Carson, Janet B; Taylor, Cayla; Franz, Nancy K

2018-07-01

This group-randomized controlled trial examines the effects of a school garden intervention on availability of fruits and vegetables (FV) in elementary school children's homes. Within each region, low income U.S. schools in Arkansas, Iowa, New York, and Washington State were randomly assigned to intervention group (n = 24) or waitlist control group (n = 22). Children were in grades 2, 4, and 5 at baseline (n = 2768). The garden intervention consisted of both raised-bed garden kits and a series of grade-appropriate lessons. FV availability at home was measured with a modified version of the GEMS FJV Availability Questionnaire. The instrument was administered at baseline (Fall 2011) and throughout the intervention (Spring 2012, Fall 2012, Spring 2013). Analyses were completed using general linear mixed models. The garden intervention led to an overall increase in availability of low-fat vegetables at home. Among younger children (2nd grade at baseline), the garden intervention led to greater home availability of vegetables, especially, low-fat vegetables. Moreover, for the younger group, garden intervention fidelity (GIF) or robustness predicted home availability of fruit, vegetables, and low-fat vegetables. School gardens have potential to affect FV availability in the home environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A structural model for the flexural mechanics of nonwoven tissue engineering scaffolds.

PubMed

Engelmayr, George C; Sacks, Michael S

2006-08-01

The development of methods to predict the strength and stiffness of biomaterials used in tissue engineering is critical for load-bearing applications in which the essential functional requirements are primarily mechanical. We previously quantified changes in the effective stiffness (E) of needled nonwoven polyglycolic acid (PGA) and poly-L-lactic acid (PLLA) scaffolds due to tissue formation and scaffold degradation under three-point bending. Toward predicting these changes, we present a structural model for E of a needled nonwoven scaffold in flexure. The model accounted for the number and orientation of fibers within a representative volume element of the scaffold demarcated by the needling process. The spring-like effective stiffness of the curved fibers was calculated using the sinusoidal fiber shapes. Structural and mechanical properties of PGA and PLLA fibers and PGA, PLLA, and 50:50 PGA/PLLA scaffolds were measured and compared with model predictions. To verify the general predictive capability, the predicted dependence of E on fiber diameter was compared with experimental measurements. Needled nonwoven scaffolds were found to exhibit distinct preferred (PD) and cross-preferred (XD) fiber directions, with an E ratio (PD/XD) of approximately 3:1. The good agreement between the predicted and experimental dependence of E on fiber diameter (R2 = 0.987) suggests that the structural model can be used to design scaffolds with E values more similar to native soft tissues. A comparison with previous results for cell-seeded scaffolds (Engelmayr, G. C., Jr., et al., 2005, Biomaterials, 26(2), pp. 175-187) suggests, for the first time, that the primary mechanical effect of collagen deposition is an increase in the number of fiber-fiber bond points yielding effectively stiffer scaffold fibers. This finding indicated that the effects of tissue deposition on needled nonwoven scaffold mechanics do not follow a rule-of-mixtures behavior. These important results underscore the need for structural approaches in modeling the effects of engineered tissue formation on nonwoven scaffolds, and their potential utility in scaffold design.

76 FR 30337 - Combined Notice of Filings No. 1

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-25

...: Texas Eastern Transmission, LP submits tariff filing per 154.203: Hot Spring Lateral Recourse Rates... 154.203: Hot Spring Lateral Agreements--CP10-471 Compliance to be effective 6/1/2011. Filed Date: 05...: Ozark Gas Transmission, L.L.C. submits tariff filing per 154.204: KGen Hot Spring Agreements to be...

Long-term Tillage influences on soil carbon, nitrogen, physical, chemical, and biological properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term tillage influences physical, chemical, and biological properties of the soil environment and thereby crop production and quality. We evaluated the effect of long-term (>20 yrs) tillage no-till, spring till, and fall plus spring till under continuous spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) on s...

A synthesis of recent research regarding the spring flood in Wisconsin: Knowns and unknowns

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Approximately half of Wisconsin’s cranberry growers replace a spring insecticide application with a 1- to 2-day spring flood. Despite the potential for this flood to be a highly cost-effective alternative to chemical insect controls, growers need to know whether the flood can reduce pest pressure wi...

Assessment of burnout in veterinary medical students using the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Educational Survey: a survey during two semesters.

PubMed

Chigerwe, Munashe; Boudreaux, Karen A; Ilkiw, Jan E

2014-11-28

Burnout among veterinary students can result from known stressors in the absence of a support system. The objectives of this study were to evaluate use of the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Educator Survey (MBI-ES) to assess burnout in veterinary students and evaluate the factors that predict the MBI-ES scores. The MBI-ES was administered to first (Class of 2016) and second year (Class of 2015) veterinary medical students during the 2012-2013 academic year in the fall and spring semesters. Factor analysis and test reliability for the survey were determined. Mean scores for the subscales determining burnout namely emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalization (DP) and lack of personal accomplishment (PA) were calculated for both classes in the 2 semesters. Multiple regression analysis was performed to evaluate other factors that predict the MBI-ES scores. A non-probability sampling method was implemented consisting of a voluntary sample of 170 and 123 students in the fall and spring semesters, respectively. Scores for EE, DP and PA were not different between the 2 classes within the same semester. Mean ± SD scores for EE, DP and PA for the fall semester were 22.9 ± 9.6, 5.0 ± 4.8 and 32.3 ± 6.7, respectively. Mean ± SD scores for EE, DP and PA the spring semester were 27.8 ± 10.7, 6.5 ± 6.1and 31.7 ± 6.8, respectively. The EE score was higher in spring compared to fall while DP and PA scores were not different between the 2 semesters. Living arrangements specifically as to whether or not a student lived with another veterinary medical students was the only variable significantly associated with the MBI-ES scores. Students in this study had moderate levels of burnout based on the MBI-ES scores. The MBI-ES was an acceptable instrument for assessing burnout in veterinary medical students. The EE scores were higher in the spring semester as compared to the fall semester. Thus students in the first and second years of veterinary school under the current curriculum experience the greatest levels of emotional exhaustion during the spring semester. This has administrative implications for the school, when considering the allocation and use of resources for student support systems during each semester.

The effect of wind waves on spring-neap variations in sediment transport in two meso-tidal estuarine basins with contrasting fetch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, Stephen; Bryan, Karin R.; Mullarney, Julia C.

2017-03-01

Higher-energy episodic wind-waves can substantially modify estuarine morphology over short timescales which are superimposed on lower-energy but long-term tidal asymmetry effects. Theoretically, wind waves and tidal currents change the morphology through their combined influence on the asymmetry between bed shear stress, τmax, on the flood and ebb tide, although the relative contribution of such wind-wave events in shaping the long-term morphological evolution in real estuaries is not well known. If the rising tide reaches sufficiently high water depths, τmax decreases as water depth increases because of the depth attenuation of wave orbital velocities. However, this effect is opposed by the increase in τmax associated with the longer fetch occurring at high tide, which allows the generation of larger waves. Additionally, these effects are superimposed on the spring-neap variations in current associated with changes to tidal range. By comparing two mesotidal basins in the same dendritic estuary, one with a large fetch aligned with the prevailing wind direction and one with only a small fetch, we show that for a sufficiently large fetch even the small and frequently occurring wind events are able to create waves that are capable of changing the morphology ('morphologically significant'). Conversely, in the basin with reduced fetch, these waves are generated less frequently and therefore are of reduced morphological significance. Here, we find that although tidal current should be stronger during spring tides and alter morphology more, on average the reduced fetch and increased water depth during spring tides mean that the basin-averaged intertidal τmax is similar during both spring and neap tides. Moreover, in the presence of wind waves, the duration of slack water is reduced during neap tides relative to spring tides, resulting in a reduced chance for accretion during neap tides. Finally, τmax is lower in the subtidal channels during neaps than springs but of a similar magnitude over the intertidal areas, and so sediment is more likely to be advected from the intertidal regions during neap tides rather than springs. This spring-neap cycle in sediment transport potential is in sharp contrast to that found previously in microtidal wave-dominated environments, where spring tides are expected to enhance erosion.

Investigation of hydroelastic ship responses of an ULOC in head seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xue-liang; Temarel, Pandeli; Hu, Jia-jun; Gu, Xue-kang

2016-10-01

Investigation of hydroelastic ship responses has been brought to the attention of the scientific and engineering world for several decades. There are two kinds of high-frequency vibrations in general ship responses to a large ocean-going ship in its shipping line, so-called springing and whipping, which are important for the determination of design wave load and fatigue damage as well. Because of the huge scale of an ultra large ore carrier (ULOC), it will suffer seldom slamming events in the ocean. The resonance vibration with high frequency is springing, which is caused by continuous wave excitation. In this paper, the wave-induced vibrations of the ULOC are addressed by experimental and numerical methods according to 2D and 3D hydroelasticity theories and an elastic model under full-load and ballast conditions. The influence of loading conditions on high-frequency vibration is studied both by numerical and experimental results. Wave-induced vibrations are higher under ballast condition including the wave frequency part, the multiple frequencies part, the 2-node and the 3-node vertical bending parts of the hydroelastic responses. The predicted results from the 2D method have less accuracy than the 3D method especially under ballast condition because of the slender-body assumption in the former method. The applicability of the 2D method and the further development of nonlinear effects to 3D method in the prediction of hydroelastic responses of the ULOC are discussed.

Adaptations and Predispositions of Different Middle European Arthropod Taxa (Collembola, Araneae, Chilopoda, Diplopoda) to Flooding and Drought Conditions

PubMed Central

Marx, Michael Thomas; Guhmann, Patrick; Decker, Peter

2012-01-01

Simple Summary This review summarizes adaptations and predispositions of different arthropod taxa (springtails, web spiders, millipedes and centipedes) to flood and drought conditions. The main focus sis directed to arthropod species, which are living in Middle European floodplain forests and wetlands, because of the fast change of flood and drought conditions in these habitats. Furthermore the effects of the predicted regional climate change like increasing aperiodic summer flooding and decreasing winter and spring floods are also discussed. Abstract Floodplain forests and wetlands are amongst the most diverse and species rich habitats on earth. Arthropods are a key group for the high diversity pattern of these landscapes, due to the fact that the change between flooding and drought causes in different life cycles and in a variety of adaptations in the different taxa. The floodplain forests and wetlands of Central Amazonia are well investigated and over the last 50 years many adaptations of several hexapod, myriapod and arachnid orders were described. In contrast to Amazonia the Middle European floodplains were less investigated concerning the adaptations of arthropods to flood and drought conditions. This review summarizes the adaptations and predispositions of springtails, web spiders, millipedes and centipedes to the changeable flood and drought conditions of Middle European floodplain forests and wetlands. Furthermore the impact of regional climate change predictions like increasing aperiodic summer floods and the decrease of typical winter and spring floods are discussed in this article. PMID:26487164

Parameter Estimation of Spacecraft Fuel Slosh Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangadharan, Sathya; Sudermann, James; Marlowe, Andrea; Njengam Charles

2004-01-01

Fuel slosh in the upper stages of a spinning spacecraft during launch has been a long standing concern for the success of a space mission. Energy loss through the movement of the liquid fuel in the fuel tank affects the gyroscopic stability of the spacecraft and leads to nutation (wobble) which can cause devastating control issues. The rate at which nutation develops (defined by Nutation Time Constant (NTC can be tedious to calculate and largely inaccurate if done during the early stages of spacecraft design. Pure analytical means of predicting the influence of onboard liquids have generally failed. A strong need exists to identify and model the conditions of resonance between nutation motion and liquid modes and to understand the general characteristics of the liquid motion that causes the problem in spinning spacecraft. A 3-D computerized model of the fuel slosh that accounts for any resonant modes found in the experimental testing will allow for increased accuracy in the overall modeling process. Development of a more accurate model of the fuel slosh currently lies in a more generalized 3-D computerized model incorporating masses, springs and dampers. Parameters describing the model include the inertia tensor of the fuel, spring constants, and damper coefficients. Refinement and understanding the effects of these parameters allow for a more accurate simulation of fuel slosh. The current research will focus on developing models of different complexity and estimating the model parameters that will ultimately provide a more realistic prediction of Nutation Time Constant obtained through simulation.

Chemical indicators of subsurface temperature applied to hot spring waters of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fournier, R.O.; Truesdell, A.H.

1970-01-01

Under favorable conditions the chemistry of hot springs may give reliable indications of subsurface temperatures and circulation patterns. These chemical indicators can be classified by the type of process involved: {A table is presented}. All these indicators have certain limitations. The silica geothermometer gives results independent of the local mineral suite and gas partial pressures, but may be affected by dilution. Alkali ratios are strongly affected by the local mineral suite and the formation of complex ions. Carbonate-chloride ratios are strongly affected by subsurface PCO2. The relative concentration of volatiles can be very misleading in high-pressure liquid systems. In Yellowstone National Park most thermal waters issue from hot, shallow aquifers with pressures in excess of hydrostatic by 2 to 6 bars and with large flows (the flow of hot spring water from the Park is greater than 4000 liters per second). These conditions should be ideal for the use of chemical indicators to estimate aquifer temperatures. In five drill holes aquifer temperatures were within 2??C of that predicted from the silica content of nearby hot springs; the temperature level off at a lower value than predicted in only one hole, and in four other holes drilling was terminated before the predicted aquifer temperature was reached. The temperature-Na/K ratio relationship does not follow any published experimental or empirical curve for water-feldspar or water-clay reactions. We suspect that ion exchange reactions involving zeolites in the Yellowstone rocks result in higher Na/K ratios at given temperatures than result from feldspar or clay reactions. Comparison of SiO2 and Cl/(HCO3 + CO3) suggest that because of higher subsurface PCO2 in Upper Geyser Basin a given Cl/(HCO3 + CO3) ratio there means a higher temperature than in Lower Geyser Basin. No correlation was found in Yellowstone Park between the subsurface regions of highest temperature and the relative concentration of volatile components such as boron and ammonia. ?? 1971.

Adaptive seasonal shifts in the thermal preferences of the lizard Iberolacerta galani (Squamata, Lacertidae).

PubMed

Ortega, Zaida; Mencía, Abraham; Pérez-Mellado, Valentín

2016-12-01

The León rock lizard, Iberolacerta galani, lives in isolated mountains of Spain. We studied the seasonal changes in the thermal biology of I. galani between spring and summer. We calculated precision, accuracy and effectiveness of thermoregulation and the habitat thermal quality for spring, and compared with the values of summer. In addition, we studied how the shift in the thermal preferences of lizards would contribute to achieve a higher effectiveness of thermoregulation. Thermal preferences of León rock lizards are among the lowest in lacertids, and are also very narrow, maintaining the narrowness among seasons. As for summer (27.90-29.70°C, mean value =28.76°C), the thermal preferences of I. galani are also low in spring (29.60-31.10°C, mean value =30.38°C), supporting the idea that this species is adapted to cold environments. The habitat thermal quality is lower in spring (10.99°C) than in summer (9.36°C), while the effectiveness of thermoregulation is higher in spring (0.92) than in summer (0.80). We found that the seasonal shift in thermal preferences contributes significantly to enhance the effectiveness of thermoregulation in both seasons, more in spring (0.45°C) than in summer (0.16°C). Because I. galani inhabits isolated mountains, where the activity period is reduced from April to October, we hypothesize that the observed adaptation of the thermal preferences, which enhance thermoregulation to a larger extent in spring, may evolved to maximize performance during the reproductive season. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the hydrogeology of the sacred Gihon Spring, Jerusalem: a deteriorating urban karst spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiel, Ronit Benami; Grodek, Tamir; Frumkin, Amos

2010-09-01

The Gihon Spring, Jerusalem, is important for the major monotheistic religions. Its hydrogeology and hydrochemistry is studied here in order to understand urbanization effects on karst groundwater resources, and promote better water management. High-resolution monitoring of the spring discharge, temperature and electrical conductivity, was performed, together with chemical and bacterial analysis. All these demonstrate a rapid response of the spring to rainfall events and human impact. A complex karst system is inferred, including conduit flow, fissure flow and diffuse flow. Electrical conductivity, Na+ and K+ values (2.0 mS/cm, 130 and 50 mg/l respectively) are very high compared to other nearby springs located at the town margins (0.6 mS/cm, 15 and <1 mg/l respectively), indicating considerable urban pollution in the Gihon area. The previously cited pulsating nature of the spring was not detected during the present high-resolution monitoring. This phenomenon may have ceased due to additional water sources from urban leakage and irrigation feeding the spring. The urbanization of the recharge catchment thus affects the spring water dramatically, both chemically and hydrologically. Appropriate measures should therefore be undertaken to protect the Gihon Spring and other karst aquifers threatened by rapid urbanization.

Hydrogeology, geochemistry, and quality of water of The Basin and Oak Spring areas of the Chisos Mountains, Big Bend National Park, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, E.T.; Buszka, P.M.

1993-01-01

Water-chemistry data, hydrochemical facies, and isotopic data also indicate that water from Oak Spring originates principally from precipitation onto the land surface of the Oak Spring area. Tritium data indicate that Oak Spring water is "modern," with an average age of recharge less than 14 years. The flow rates recorded almost continuously at Oak Spring beginning in December 1986 show a close relation between precipitation and discharge. The highest recorded spring flow of 167 gallons per minute in December 1986 is attributed to record high precipitation in the area during 1986. The lowest recorded flow of 22.4 gallons per minute, in December 1989, followed a period of 20 out of 26 months of below-normal precipitation. Flow at Oak Spring typically lags behind precipitation by about 1 month. This fairly rapid response indicates the spring is fed by a shallow aquifer having good permeability and effective recharge areas with the ability to absorb precipitation rapidly.

VRN1 genes variability in tetraploid wheat species with a spring growth habit.

PubMed

Konopatskaia, Irina; Vavilova, Valeriya; Kondratenko, Elena Ya; Blinov, Alexandr; Goncharov, Nikolay P

2016-11-16

Vernalization genes VRN1 play a major role in the transition from vegetative to reproductive growth in wheat. In di-, tetra- and hexaploid wheats the presence of a dominant allele of at least one VRN1 gene homologue (Vrn-A1, Vrn-B1, Vrn-G1 or Vrn-D1) determines the spring growth habit. Allelic variation between the Vrn-1 and vrn-1 alleles relies on mutations in the promoter region or the first intron. The origin and variability of the dominant VRN1 alleles, determining the spring growth habit in tetraploid wheat species have been poorly studied. Here we analyzed the growth habit of 228 tetraploid wheat species accessions and 25 % of them were spring type. We analyzed the promoter and first intron regions of VRN1 genes in 57 spring accessions of tetraploid wheats. The spring growth habit of most studied spring accessions was determined by previously identified dominant alleles of VRN1 genes. Genetic experiments proof the dominant inheritance of Vrn-A1d allele which was widely distributed across the accessions of Triticum dicoccoides. Two novel alleles were discovered and designated as Vrn-A1b.7 and Vrn-B1dic. Vrn-A1b.7 had deletions of 20 bp located 137 bp upstream of the start codon and mutations within the VRN-box when compared to the recessive allele of vrn-A1. So far the Vrn-A1d allele was identified only in spring accessions of the T. dicoccoides and T. turgidum species. Vrn-B1dic was identified in T. dicoccoides IG46225 and had 11 % sequence dissimilarity in comparison to the promoter of vrn-B1. The presence of Vrn-A1b.7 and Vrn-B1dic alleles is a predicted cause of the spring growth habit of studied accessions of tetraploid species. Three spring accessions T. aethiopicum K-19059, T. turanicum K-31693 and T. turgidum cv. Blancal possess recessive alleles of both VRN-A1 and VRN-B1 genes. Further investigations are required to determine the source of spring growth habit of these accessions. New allelic variants of the VRN-A1 and VRN-B1 genes were identified in spring accessions of tetraploid wheats. The origin and evolution of VRN-A1 alleles in di- and tetraploid wheat species was discussed.

Physical basis of tap test as a quantitative imaging tool for composite structures on aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, David K.; Barnard, Daniel J.; Peters, John J.; Dayal, Vinay

2000-05-01

Tap test is a simple but effective way for finding flaws in composite and honeycomb sandwich structures; it has been practiced in aircraft inspection for decades. The mechanics of tap test was extensively researched by P. Cawley et al., and several versions of instrumented tap test have emerged in recent years. This paper describes a quantitative study of the impact duration as a function of the mass, radius, velocity, and material property of the impactor. The impact response is compared to the predictions of Hertzian-type contact theory and a simple spring model. The electronically measured impact duration, τ, is used for generating images of the tapped region. Using the spring model, the images are converted into images of a spring constant, k, which is a measure of the local contact stiffness. The images of k, largely independent of tapper mass and impact velocity, reveal the size, shape and severity (cf. Percent stiffness reduction) of defects and damages, as well as the presence of substructures and the associated stiffness increase. The studies are carried out on a variety of real aircraft components and the results serve to guide the development of a fieldable tap test imaging system for aircraft inspection.—This material is based upon work supported by the Federal Aviation Administration under Contract #DTFA03-98-D-00008, Delivery Order No. IA016 and performed at Iowa State University's Center for NDE as part of the Center for Aviation Systems Reliability program.

Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhao, Hongfang; Piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Peñuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan A

2015-10-01

Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C(-1) during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C(-1) during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.

Systematic variation of prosthetic foot spring affects center-of-mass mechanics and metabolic cost during walking.

PubMed

Zelik, Karl E; Collins, Steven H; Adamczyk, Peter G; Segal, Ava D; Klute, Glenn K; Morgenroth, David C; Hahn, Michael E; Orendurff, Michael S; Czerniecki, Joseph M; Kuo, Arthur D

2011-08-01

Lower-limb amputees expend more energy to walk than non-amputees and have an elevated risk of secondary disabilities. Insufficient push-off by the prosthetic foot may be a contributing factor. We aimed to systematically study the effect of prosthetic foot mechanics on gait, to gain insight into fundamental prosthetic design principles. We varied a single parameter in isolation, the energy-storing spring in a prototype prosthetic foot, the controlled energy storage and return (CESR) foot, and observed the effect on gait. Subjects walked on the CESR foot with three different springs. We performed parallel studies on amputees and on non-amputees wearing prosthetic simulators. In both groups, spring characteristics similarly affected ankle and body center-of-mass (COM) mechanics and metabolic cost. Softer springs led to greater energy storage, energy return, and prosthetic limb COM push-off work. But metabolic energy expenditure was lowest with a spring of intermediate stiffness, suggesting biomechanical disadvantages to the softest spring despite its greater push-off. Disadvantages of the softest spring may include excessive heel displacements and COM collision losses. We also observed some differences in joint kinetics between amputees and non-amputees walking on the prototype foot. During prosthetic push-off, amputees exhibited reduced energy transfer from the prosthesis to the COM along with increased hip work, perhaps due to greater energy dissipation at the knee. Nevertheless, the results indicate that spring compliance can contribute to push-off, but with biomechanical trade-offs that limit the degree to which greater push-off might improve walking economy. © 2011 IEEE

Systematic variation of prosthetic foot spring affects center-of-mass mechanics and metabolic cost during walking

PubMed Central

Zelik, Karl E.; Collins, Steven H.; Adamczyk, Peter G.; Segal, Ava D.; Klute, Glenn K.; Morgenroth, David C.; Hahn, Michael E.; Orendurff, Michael S.; Czerniecki, Joseph M.; Kuo, Arthur D.

2014-01-01

Lower-limb amputees expend more energy to walk than non-amputees and have an elevated risk of secondary disabilities. Insufficient push-off by the prosthetic foot may be a contributing factor. We aimed to systematically study the effect of prosthetic foot mechanics on gait, to gain insight into fundamental prosthetic design principles. We varied a single parameter in isolation, the energy-storing spring in a prototype prosthetic foot, the Controlled Energy Storage and Return (CESR) foot, and observed the effect on gait. Subjects walked on the CESR foot with three different springs. We performed parallel studies on amputees and on non-amputees wearing prosthetic simulators. In both groups, spring characteristics similarly affected ankle and body center-of-mass (COM) mechanics and metabolic cost. Softer springs led to greater energy storage, energy return and prosthetic limb COM push-off work. But metabolic energy expenditure was lowest with a spring of intermediate stiffness, suggesting biomechanical disadvantages to the softest spring despite its greater push-off. Disadvantages of the softest spring may include excessive heel displacements and COM collision losses. We also observed some differences in joint kinetics between amputees and non-amputees walking on the prototype foot. During prosthetic push-off, amputees exhibited reduced energy transfer from the prosthesis to the COM along with increased hip work, perhaps due to greater energy dissipation at the knee. Nevertheless, the results indicate that spring compliance can contribute to push-off, but with biomechanical trade-offs that limit the degree to which greater push-off might improve walking economy. PMID:21708509

Investigating dormant-season application of pheromone in citrus to control overwintering and spring populations of Phyllocnistis citrella (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae).

PubMed

Keathley, Craig P; Stelinski, Lukasz L; Lapointe, Stephen L

2016-07-01

The leafminer, Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton, reproduces on leaf flush during winter. Deployment of pheromone during winter could suppress moth populations in spring and summer more than a spring application alone. We tested the primary pheromone component of P. citrella, (Z,Z,E)-7,11,13-hexadecatrienal, released gradually over several months from elastomeric dispensers in a citrus grove in 6.4 ha main plots in winter and/or 3.2 ha subplots in spring (834 mg triene ha(-1) ) and evaluated moth catch and leaf mining. After winter treatment, dispensers provided >85% disruption of male moth catch in traps for 37 weeks, and after spring treatment they provided >92% disruption for 26 weeks, but there was only a 12% reduction in leaf infestation in spring. Two applications were no better than only a single application in spring. Disruption of moth catch was weaker in treated plots where traps were placed high (3.1 m) rather than low (1.6 m) in the tree canopy. Dispensers provided effective and persistent disruption of male catch in pheromone-baited monitoring traps but were minimally effective in reducing leaf infestation by P. citrella. Winter application of pheromone did not reduce leaf mining in spring compared with spring application alone. Tops of trees may have provided a refuge for mating. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

2017-12-01

In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with respect to the calibrated model). Finally, such a study can allow decision makers to implement best informed management practices, especially in complex karst systems, to overcome impacts of climate change on water resources.

Monitoring and analysis of liquid storage in LNG tank based on different support springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hua; Sun, Jianping; Li, Ke; Wu, Zheng; Chen, Qidong; Chen, Guodong; Cao, Can

2018-04-01

With the rapid development of social modernization, LNG vehicles are springing up in daily life. However, it is difficult to monitor and judge the liquid storage tanks accurately and quickly. Based on this, this paper presents a new method of liquid storage monitoring, LNG tank on-line vibration monitoring system. By collecting the vibration frequency of LNG tank and tank liquid and supporting spring system, the liquid storage quality in the tank can be calculated. In this experiment, various vibration modes of the tank spring system are fully taken into account. The vibration effects of different types of support springs on the LNG tank system were investigated. The results show that the spring model has a great influence on the test results. This study provides a technical reference for the selection of suitable support springs for liquid storage monitoring.

Phenology and drivers of the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom in the open Black Sea: The application of Sverdrup's hypothesis and its refinements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikaelyan, Alexander S.; Chasovnikov, Valeriy K.; Kubryakov, Arseny A.; Stanichny, Sergey V.

2017-02-01

The phenology of the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom in the Black Sea was investigated on the basis of the satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration (Chl) for the recent 18-year period. Data for the 8-day Chl were analysed, together with changes in the nutrient concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind velocity and duration. Based on Sverdrup's Critical Depth hypothesis and its recent refinements, the Pulsing-Bloom hypothesis was proposed for the highly stratified waters of the Black Sea. This hypothesis relates the biological response to physical forcing and chemical fluxes to the photic zone and predicts the pulsing growth of phytoplankton and different patterns of phytoplankton changes in the upper layer in winter-spring during cold and regular years. The hypothesis was supported by Chl dynamics and several Chl peaks were observed during winter-spring. Normally, the highest Chl occurred in winter and a spring peak was absent, whereas in cold years, a relatively low Chl in winter was followed by a spring bloom. These events were observed only in 15% of cases and the magnitude of the bloom was associated with the intensity of winter convection that was revealed by the negative inter-annual correlation between the March Chl and the February SST. In contrast, the February Chl was positively correlated with the SST. The proposed hypothesis provides an explanation of this phenomenon on the basis of an alternation between the low-turbulence and deep-mixing regimes. This mechanism was confirmed by the positive relationships between Chl and the duration of light wind during the current period and strong wind in the previous period. Inorganic nitrogen was depleted disproportionately during the winter-spring, whereas the phosphate concentration remained relatively high. Following a cold winter, the highest phosphate concentration and extremely low nitrogen-to-phosphorus molar ratios (2) were observed in the upper 25-m layer in late spring. The regular absence of spring blooms might represent one of the consequences of the regional climate change.

The seasonal cycle revisited: interannual variation and ecosystem consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, Douglas F.; Mackas, David L.; McKinnell, Stewart M.

The annual seasonal cycle accounts for much of the total temporal variability of mid- and high-latitude marine ecosystems. Although the general pattern of the seasons repeats each year, climatic variability of the atmosphere and the ocean produce detectable changes in intensity and onset timing. We use a combination of time series data from oceanographic, zooplankton and seabird breeding data to ask if and how these variations in the timing of the spring growing season affect marine populations. For the physical environment, we develop an annual index of spring timing by fitting a non-linear 2-parameter periodic function to the average weekly SST data observed in British Columbia from 1 January to the end of August each year. For each year, the phase parameter describes the timing of seasonal warming (the timing index) and the amplitude parameter describes the magnitude of the temperature increase between the fitted winter minimum and summer maximum. For the zooplankton, which have annual and strongly synchronous cycles of biomass, productivity, and developmental sequence, we use copepodite stage composition to index the timing of the annual maximum. For seabirds, we examine (1975-1999) the timing of hatching, nestling growth performance, and diet for four species of alcids at Triangle Island, British Columbia's largest seabird colony and the world's largest population of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet. Temperature, zooplankton, and seabirds have all shown recent decadal trends toward ‘earlier spring’, but the magnitudes of the timing perturbations have differed from variable to variable and from year to year. Recent (1996-1999) extreme interannual variation in spring timing and April SST helped to facilitate a mechanistic investigation of oceanographic features that affect the reproductive performance of seabirds. Our results demonstrate a significant negative relationship between the annual spring timing index (and April mean SST) and nestling growth rates for both Cassin's auklet and rhinoceros auklet. Nestling growth rates were significantly lower in early, warm years. We demonstrate that low growth rates of Cassin's auklet occurred when copepod composition in nestling diet was low overall and copepods were scarce or absent in samples collected later in the season. We propose that when spring is early and warm, the duration of overlap of seabird breeding and copepod availability in surface waters becomes reduced, effectively creating a seasonal mismatch of prey and predator populations. Such a mismatch could explain the reduced reproductive performance of seabirds compared to years when spring was later and colder. The relationships we develop here can be used as simple predictive models to examine the effects of ocean climate change on seabird reproductive performance within our region.

Morphological constraints on changing avian migration phenology.

PubMed

Møller, A P; Rubolini, D; Saino, N

2017-06-01

Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960-2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life-history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A seasonal forecast scheme for the Inner Mongolia spring drought - Part-I: dynamic characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and forecast signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Si, Yaobing; Yu, Xiao; Wulan; Yang, Peng; Gao, Jing

2018-02-01

This study analyzed the atmospheric evolutionary characteristics of insufficient rainfall that leads to spring drought in Inner Mongolia, China. The results revealed that a weakened western Pacific subtropical high and an enlarged North Polar vortex with a western position of the East Asian trough generally result in unfavorable moisture transportation for spring precipitation in IM. It was found that an abnormal sea surface temperature in several crucial ocean areas triggers an irregular atmospheric circulation over the Eurasian continent and the Pacific region. Lower sea surface temperature (SST) during the previous autumn over tropical regions of the central-eastern Pacific and Indian oceans induce a strong Walker circulation, corresponding to a weak and southeastward-retreating subtropical high over the western Pacific during the following winter and spring. Another crucial area is the central region of the North Atlantic Ocean. Abnormally low SST of the ocean area during the preceding autumn causes the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern (the index of which is issued on the website of the Climate Prediction Center, USA) changes to a positive phase, which leads to a weak westerly over the Eurasian continent. In this case, the easterly over the North Pole becomes stronger than normal, resulting in an extended North Polar vortex during the following spring. In addition, SST differences during the previous December between the middle-eastern tropical and the northwestern regions of the Pacific Ocean reflect variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, causing the East Asian trough to move to a western position during the following spring.

Effect of Recycling and Autoclave Sterilization on the Unloading Forces of NiTi Closed-Coil Springs: An In Vitro Study.

PubMed

Momeni Danaei, Sh; Oshagh, M; Khozaei, A

2013-12-01

Clinicians use the NiTi coil springs frequently for its appropriate mechanical properties. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of recycling and autoclave sterilization on the unloading forces of NiTi closed coil springs. Fourteen NiTi closed coil spring with the length of 9mm were selected. Each coil was stretched to a peak extension of 12 mm. A universal testing machine was used to acquire load/deflection curve of the coil springs at 25±2°C. The influence of thermocycling (1000 cycles,5-55°C), autoclaving (134°C, 32PSI, 3min) and mechanical strain (9mm extension) which simulated the oral condition, were considered. Data were statistically analyzed by adopting Repeated Measures MANOVA Paired t-Test. Autoclaving in the 1, 4, 6 steps increased the force levels of coil springs about 2-5gf (p< 0.01). Thermocycling reduced their force levels about 4-6gf. Prolonged strain at 3, 5 steps decreased the magnitude of forces levels about 3-4gf. Concerning all the limitations; according to the results of this study; it is possible to recycle Ni-Ti closed-coil springs without significant reduction in their force levels.

Sand lizard (Lacerta agilis) phenology in a warming world.

PubMed

Ljungström, Gabriella; Wapstra, Erik; Olsson, Mats

2015-10-08

Present-day climate change has altered the phenology (the timing of periodic life cycle events) of many plant and animal populations worldwide. Some of these changes have been adaptive, leading to an increase in population fitness, whereas others have been associated with fitness decline. Representing short-term responses to an altered weather regime, hitherto observed changes are largely explained by phenotypic plasticity. However, to track climatically induced shifts in optimal phenotype as climate change proceeds, evolutionary capacity in key limiting climate- and fitness-related traits is likely to be crucial. In order to produce realistic predictions about the effects of climate change on species and populations, a main target for conservation biologists is thus to assess the potential of natural populations to respond by these two mechanisms. In this study we use a large 15-year dataset on an ectotherm model, the Swedish sand lizard (Lacerta agilis), to investigate how higher spring temperature is likely to affect oviposition timing in a high latitude population, a trait strongly linked to offspring fitness and survival. With an interest in both the short- and potential long-term effect of rising temperatures, we applied a random regression model, which yields estimates of population-level plasticity and among-individual variation in the average, as well as the plastic, response to temperature. Population plasticity represents capacity for short-term adjustments whereas variation among individuals in a fitness-related trait indicates an opportunity for natural selection and hence for evolutionary adaptation. The analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. In contrast, we found no evidence for variation among females in their plastic responses to spring temperature, which could demonstrate a similarity in responses amongst females, but may also be due to a lack of statistical power to detect such an effect. Our findings indicate that climate warming may have positive fitness effects in this lizard population through an advancement of oviposition date. This prediction is consistent over shorter and potentially also longer time scales as the analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. However, the genetic basis for this variation would have to be examined in order to predict an evolutionary response.

[Impacts of dominated landscape types on hydrogen and oxygen isotope effects of spring water in the Hani Rice Terraces].

PubMed

Jiao, Yuan Mei; Liu, Cheng Jing; Liu, Xin; Liu, Zhi Lin; Ding, Yin Ping

2017-07-18

Analysis of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes is an effective method to track the water cycle in watershed. Impact of landscape pattern on the isotope effects of spring water is a new interdisciplinary topic between landscape ecology and isotope hydrology. Taking the Quanfuzhuang River basin located in the core area of UNESCO World Cultural Heritage of Honghe Hani Rice Terrace as the object, collecting the monthly samples of 78 points of spring water and 39 precipitation at altitude of 1500 m (terraces), 1700 m (terraces) and 1900 m (forest) from March 2015 to March 2016, we analyzed the hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes of water samples under the different landscape types. The results indicated that the dominated landscape types were forests and rice terraces, being 66.6% and 22.1% of the whole landscape area respectively, and they had a spatial vertical pattern of forest located at the mountain top and rice terraces at the down-slope. The correlation analysis showed that the spring water not only came from the precipitation, but also from other water sources which had a more positive δ 18 O and δD values, the spring water in up-slope forests mainly came from precipitation, while that in down-slope rice terraces came from precipitation, ri-ver water, rice terrace water and under ground water. Therefore, the mixing effects of spring water δ 18 O and δD were more significant in rice terraces. The overall altitude effect of the hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes in spring water was obvious. The linear decreasing rates of δ 18 O and δD values were -0.125‰·(100 m) -1 and -0.688‰·(100 m) -1 , respectively. The deuterium surplus value increased with the altitude because of the impacts of landscape pattern and the local cycle of water isotopes. In summary, the dominant landscape types had a significant impact on the hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of spring water, which could be used as response indicator to reveal the impacts of landscape pattern on hydrological process.

Protective effects of hot spring water drinking and radon inhalation on ethanol-induced gastric mucosal injury in mice

PubMed Central

Etani, Reo; Kataoka, Takahiro; Kanzaki, Norie; Sakoda, Akihiro; Tanaka, Hiroshi; Ishimori, Yuu; Mitsunobu, Fumihiro; Taguchi, Takehito

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Radon therapy using radon (222Rn) gas is classified into two types of treatment: inhalation of radon gas and drinking water containing radon. Although short- or long-term intake of spa water is effective in increasing gastric mucosal blood flow, and spa water therapy is useful for treating chronic gastritis and gastric ulcer, the underlying mechanisms for and precise effects of radon protection against mucosal injury are unclear. In the present study, we examined the protective effects of hot spring water drinking and radon inhalation on ethanol-induced gastric mucosal injury in mice. Mice inhaled radon at a concentration of 2000 Bq/m3 for 24 h or were provided with hot spring water for 2 weeks. The activity density of 222Rn ranged from 663 Bq/l (start point of supplying) to 100 Bq/l (end point of supplying). Mice were then orally administered ethanol at three concentrations. The ulcer index (UI), an indicator of mucosal injury, increased in response to the administration of ethanol; however, treatment with either radon inhalation or hot spring water inhibited the elevation in the UI due to ethanol. Although no significant differences in antioxidative enzymes were observed between the radon-treated groups and the non-treated control groups, lipid peroxide levels were significantly lower in the stomachs of mice pre-treated with radon or hot spring water. These results suggest that hot spring water drinking and radon inhalation inhibit ethanol-induced gastric mucosal injury. PMID:28498931

Recharge Area, Base-Flow and Quick-Flow Discharge Rates and Ages, and General Water Quality of Big Spring in Carter County, Missouri, 2000-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Imes, Jeffrey L.; Plummer, Niel; Kleeschulte, Michael J.; Schumacher, John G.

2007-01-01

Exploration for lead deposits has occurred in a mature karst area of southeast Missouri that is highly valued for its scenic beauty and recreational opportunities. The area contains the two largest springs in Missouri (Big Spring and Greer Spring), both of which flow into federally designated scenic rivers. Concerns about potential mining effects on the area ground water and aquatic biota prompted an investigation of Big Spring. Water-level measurements made during 2000 helped define the recharge area of Big Spring, Greer Spring, Mammoth Spring, and Boze Mill Spring. The data infer two distinct potentiometric surfaces. The shallow potentiometric surface, where the depth-to-water is less than about 250 feet, tends to mimic topographic features and is strongly controlled by streams. The deep potentiometric surface, where the depth-to-water is greater than about 250 feet represents ground-water hydraulic heads within the more mature karst areas. A highly permeable zone extends about 20 mile west of Big Spring toward the upper Hurricane Creek Basin. Deeper flowing water in the Big Spring recharge area is directed toward this permeable zone. The estimated sizes of the spring recharge areas are 426 square miles for Big Spring, 352 square miles for Greer Spring, 290 square miles for Mammoth Spring, and 54 square miles for Boze Mill Spring. A discharge accumulation curve using Big Spring daily mean discharge data shows no substantial change in the discharge pattern of Big Spring during the period of record (water years 1922 through 2004). The extended periods when the spring flow deviated from the trend line can be attributed to prolonged departures from normal precipitation. The maximum possible instantaneous flow from Big Spring has not been adequately defined because of backwater effects from the Current River during high-flow conditions. Physical constraints within the spring conduit system may restrict its maximum flow. The largest discharge measured at Big Spring during the period of record (water years 1922 through 2004) was 1,170 cubic feet per second on December 7, 1982. The daily mean water temperature of Big Spring was monitored during water years 2001 through 2004 and showed little variability, ranging from 13 to 15? C (degree Celsius). Water temperatures generally vary less than 1? C throughout the year. The warmest temperatures occur during October and November and decrease until April, indicating Big Spring water temperature does show a slight seasonal variation. The use of the traditional hydrograph separation program HYSEP to determine the base flow and quick flow or runoff components at Big Spring failed to yield base-flow and quick-flow discharge curves that matched observations of spring characteristics. Big Spring discharge data were used in combination with specific conductance data to develop an improved hydrograph separation method for the spring. The estimated annual mean quick flow ranged from 15 to 48 cubic feet per second for the HYSEP analysis and ranged from 26 to 154 cubic feet per second for the discharge and specific conductance method for water years 2001 to 2004. Using the discharge and specific conductance method, the estimated base-flow component rises abruptly as the spring hydrograph rises, attains a peak value on the same day as the discharge peak, and then declines abruptly from its peak value. Several days later, base flow begins to increase again at an approximately linear trend, coinciding with the time at which the percentage of quick flow has reached a maximum after each recharge-induced discharge peak. The interval between the discharge peak and the peak in percentage quick flow ranges from 8 to 11 days for seven hydrograph peaks, consistent with quick-flow traveltime estimates by dye-trace tests from the mature karst Hurricane Creek Basin in the central part of the recharge area. Concentrations of environmental tracers chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs: CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113)

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

Coarse-grained protein-protein stiffnesses and dynamics from all-atom simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, Stephen D.; Henley, C. L.

2010-03-01

Large protein assemblies, such as virus capsids, may be coarse-grained as a set of rigid units linked by generalized (rotational and stretching) harmonic springs. We present an ab initio method to obtain the elastic parameters and overdamped dynamics for these springs from all-atom molecular-dynamics simulations of one pair of units at a time. The computed relaxation times of this pair give a consistency check for the simulation, and we can also find the corrective force needed to null systematic drifts. As a first application we predict the stiffness of an HIV capsid layer and the relaxation time for its breathing mode.