AccessAbility: Overcoming Information Barriers. Proceedings from the 1987 Spring Meeting of the Nebraska Library Association, College and University Section (Omaha, Nebraska, May 29, 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kacena, Barbara J., Ed.

Various aspects of the theme, "AccessAbility: Overcoming Information Barriers," are considered in the conference papers collected in this document. They include: (1) "The Library Image: A Barrier to Accessibility" (Janice S. Boyer); (2) "The Educationally Disadvantaged Student: How Can the Library Help?" (Michael Poma…

State-space prediction of spring discharge in a karst catchment in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenwei; Xu, Xianli; Liu, Meixian; Li, Xuezhang; Zhang, Rongfei; Wang, Kelin; Xu, Chaohao

2017-06-01

Southwest China represents one of the largest continuous karst regions in the world. It is estimated that around 1.7 million people are heavily dependent on water derived from karst springs in southwest China. However, there is a limited amount of water supply in this region. Moreover, there is not enough information on temporal patterns of spring discharge in the area. In this context, it is essential to accurately predict spring discharge, as well as understand karst hydrological processes in a thorough manner, so that water shortages in this area could be predicted and managed efficiently. The objectives of this study were to determine the primary factors that govern spring discharge patterns and to develop a state-space model to predict spring discharge. Spring discharge, precipitation (PT), relative humidity (RD), water temperature (WD), and electrical conductivity (EC) were the variables analyzed in the present work, and they were monitored at two different locations (referred to as karst springs A and B, respectively, in this paper) in a karst catchment area in southwest China from May to November 2015. Results showed that a state-space model using any combinations of variables outperformed a classical linear regression, a back-propagation artificial neural network model, and a least square support vector machine in modeling spring discharge time series for karst spring A. The best state-space model was obtained by using PT and RD, which accounted for 99.9% of the total variation in spring discharge. This model was then applied to an independent data set obtained from karst spring B, and it provided accurate spring discharge estimates. Therefore, state-space modeling was a useful tool for predicting spring discharge in karst regions in southwest China, and this modeling procedure may help researchers to obtain accurate results in other karst regions.

A Systematic Approach to Predicting Spring Force for Sagittal Craniosynostosis Surgery.

PubMed

Zhang, Guangming; Tan, Hua; Qian, Xiaohua; Zhang, Jian; Li, King; David, Lisa R; Zhou, Xiaobo

2016-05-01

Spring-assisted surgery (SAS) can effectively treat scaphocephaly by reshaping crania with the appropriate spring force. However, it is difficult to accurately estimate spring force without considering biomechanical properties of tissues. This study presents and validates a reliable system to accurately predict the spring force for sagittal craniosynostosis surgery. The authors randomly chose 23 patients who underwent SAS and had been followed for at least 2 years. An elastic model was designed to characterize the biomechanical behavior of calvarial bone tissue for each individual. After simulating the contact force on accurate position of the skull strip with the springs, the finite element method was applied to calculating the stress of each tissue node based on the elastic model. A support vector regression approach was then used to model the relationships between biomechanical properties generated from spring force, bone thickness, and the change of cephalic index after surgery. Therefore, for a new patient, the optimal spring force can be predicted based on the learned model with virtual spring simulation and dynamic programming approach prior to SAS. Leave-one-out cross-validation was implemented to assess the accuracy of our prediction. As a result, the mean prediction accuracy of this model was 93.35%, demonstrating the great potential of this model as a useful adjunct for preoperative planning tool.

Updated numerical model with uncertainty assessment of 1950-56 drought conditions on brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brakefield, Linzy K.; White, Jeremy T.; Houston, Natalie A.; Thomas, Jonathan V.

2015-01-01

Predictive results of total spring discharge during the 7-year period, as well as head predictions at Bexar County index well J-17, were much different than the dissolved-solids concentration change results at the production wells. These upper bounds are an order of magnitude larger than the actual prediction which implies that (1) the predictions of total spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs and head at Bexar County index well J-17 made with this model are not reliable, and (2) parameters that control these predictions are not informed well by the observation dataset during historymatching, even though the history-matching process yielded parameters to reproduce spring discharges and heads at these locations during the history-matching period. Furthermore, because spring discharges at these two springs and heads at Bexar County index well J-17 represent more of a cumulative effect of upstream conditions over a larger distance (and longer time), many more parameters (with their own uncertainties) are potentially controlling these predictions than the prediction of dissolved-solids concentration change at the prediction wells, and therefore contributing to a large posterior uncertainty.

Forecasting experiments of a dynamical-statistical model of the sea surface temperature anomaly field based on the improved self-memorization principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Mei; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Ren; Wang, Dong; Shen, Shuanghe; Singh, Vijay P.

2018-04-01

With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, this paper develops a new dynamical-statistical forecast model of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field. To avoid single initial prediction values, a self-memorization principle is introduced to improve the dynamical reconstruction model, thus making the model more appropriate for describing such chaotic systems as ENSO events. The improved dynamical-statistical model of the SSTA field is used to predict SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific and during El Niño and La Niña events. The long-term step-by-step forecast results and cross-validated retroactive hindcast results of time series T1 and T2 are found to be satisfactory, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of approximately 0.80 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of less than 15 %. The corresponding forecast SSTA field is accurate in that not only is the forecast shape similar to the actual field but also the contour lines are essentially the same. This model can also be used to forecast the ENSO index. The temporal correlation coefficient is 0.8062, and the MAPE value of 19.55 % is small. The difference between forecast results in spring and those in autumn is not high, indicating that the improved model can overcome the spring predictability barrier to some extent. Compared with six mature models published previously, the present model has an advantage in prediction precision and length, and is a novel exploration of the ENSO forecast method.

Retrofitting: The Thermal Upgrading of Buildings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maine Audubon Society, Falmouth.

This publication is a compilation of talks delivered during the spring of 1977 by Charles Wing. Contents of the booklet include retrofitting old houses, condensation and vapor barriers, solutions to the vapor barrier problem, and how much of which insulation to use. The publication includes charts, drawings, and equations to illustrate the topics…

Phenology of a Vegetation Barrier and Resulting Impacts on Near-Highway Particle Number and Black Carbon Concentrations on a School Campus.

PubMed

Fuller, Christina H; Carter, David R; Hayat, Matthew J; Baldauf, Richard; Watts Hull, Rebecca

2017-02-08

Traffic-related air pollution is a persistent concern especially in urban areas where populations live in close proximity to roadways. Innovative solutions are needed to minimize human exposure and the installation of vegetative barriers shows potential as a method to reduce near-road concentrations. This study investigates the impact of an existing stand of deciduous and evergreen trees on near-road total particle number (PNC) and black carbon (BC) concentrations across three seasons. Measurements were taken during spring, fall and winter on the campus of a middle school in the Atlanta (GA, USA) area at distances of 10 m and 50 m from a major interstate highway. We identified consistent decreases in BC concentrations, but not for PNC, with increased distance from the highway. In multivariable models, hour of day, downwind conditions, distance to highway, temperature and relative humidity significantly predicted pollutant concentrations. The magnitude of effect of these variables differed by season, however, we were not able to show a definitive impact of the vegetative barrier on near-road concentrations. More detailed studies are necessary to further examine the specific configurations and scenarios that may produce pollutant and exposure reductions.

Phenology of a Vegetation Barrier and Resulting Impacts on Near-Highway Particle Number and Black Carbon Concentrations on a School Campus

PubMed Central

Fuller, Christina H.; Carter, David R.; Hayat, Matthew J.; Baldauf, Richard; Watts Hull, Rebecca

2017-01-01

Traffic-related air pollution is a persistent concern especially in urban areas where populations live in close proximity to roadways. Innovative solutions are needed to minimize human exposure and the installation of vegetative barriers shows potential as a method to reduce near-road concentrations. This study investigates the impact of an existing stand of deciduous and evergreen trees on near-road total particle number (PNC) and black carbon (BC) concentrations across three seasons. Measurements were taken during spring, fall and winter on the campus of a middle school in the Atlanta (GA, USA) area at distances of 10 m and 50 m from a major interstate highway. We identified consistent decreases in BC concentrations, but not for PNC, with increased distance from the highway. In multivariable models, hour of day, downwind conditions, distance to highway, temperature and relative humidity significantly predicted pollutant concentrations. The magnitude of effect of these variables differed by season, however, we were not able to show a definitive impact of the vegetative barrier on near-road concentrations. More detailed studies are necessary to further examine the specific configurations and scenarios that may produce pollutant and exposure reductions. PMID:28208726

An integrative model of risk for high school disordered eating.

PubMed

Davis, Heather A; Smith, Gregory T

2018-06-21

Binge eating and purging behaviors are associated with significant harm and distress among adolescents. The process by which these behaviors develop (often in the high school years) is not fully understood. We tested the Acquired Preparedness (AP) model of risk involving transactions among biological, personality, and psychosocial factors to predict binge eating and purging behavior in a sample of 1,906 children assessed in the spring of 5th grade (the last year of elementary school), the fall of 6th grade (the first year of middle school), spring of 6th grade, and spring of 10th grade (second year of high school). Pubertal onset in spring of 5th grade predicted increases in negative urgency, but not negative affect, in the fall of 6th grade. Negative urgency in the fall of 6th grade predicted increases in expectancies for reinforcement from eating in the spring of 6th grade, which in turn predicted increases in binge eating behavior in the spring of 10th grade. Negative affect in the fall of 6th grade predicted increases in thinness expectancies in the spring of 6th grade, which in turn predicted increases in purging in the spring of 10th grade. Results demonstrate similarities and differences in the development of these two different bulimic behaviors. Intervention efforts targeting the risk factors evident in this model may prove fruitful in the treatment of eating disorders characterized by binge eating and purging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Slip-spring model of entangled rod-coil block copolymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Muzhou; Likhtman, Alexei E.; Olsen, Bradley D.

2015-03-01

Understanding the dynamics of rod-coil block copolymers is important for optimal design of functional nanostructured materials for organic electronics and biomaterials. Recently, we proposed a reptation theory of entangled rod-coil block copolymers, predicting the relaxation mechanisms of activated reptation and arm retraction that slow rod-coil dynamics relative to coil and rod homopolymers, respectively. In this work, we introduce a coarse-grained slip-spring model of rod-coil block copolymers to further explore these mechanisms. First, parameters of the coarse-grained model are tuned to match previous molecular dynamics simulation results for coils, rods, and block copolymers. For activated reptation, rod-coil copolymers are shown to disfavor configurations where the rod occupies curved portions of the entanglement tube of randomly varying curvature created by the coil ends. The effect of these barriers on diffusion is quantitatively captured by considering one-dimensional motion along an entanglement tube with a rough free energy potential. Finally, we analyze the crossover between the two mechanisms. The resulting dynamics from both mechanisms acting in combination is faster than from each one individually.

Negotiating an ecological barrier: crossing the Sahara in relation to winds by common swifts

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The Sahara Desert is one of the largest land-based barriers on the Earth, crossed twice each year by billions of birds on migration. Here we investigate how common swifts migrating between breeding sites in Sweden and wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa perform the desert crossing with respect to route choice, winds, timing and speed of migration by analysing 72 geolocator tracks recording migration. The swifts cross western Sahara on a broad front in autumn, while in spring they seem to use three alternative routes across the Sahara, a western, a central and an eastern route across the Arabian Peninsula, with most birds using the western route. The swifts show slower migration and travel speeds, and make longer detours with more stops in autumn compared with spring. In spring, the stopover period in West Africa coincided with mostly favourable winds, but birds remained in the area, suggesting fuelling. The western route provided more tailwind assistance compared with the central route for our tracked swifts in spring, but not in autumn. The ultimate explanation for the evolution of a preferred western route is presumably a combination of matching rich foraging conditions (swarming insects) and favourable winds enabling fast spring migration. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Moving in a moving medium: new perspectives on flight’. PMID:27528783

A seasonal forecast scheme for the Inner Mongolia spring drought part-II: a logical reasoning evidence-based method for spring predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Wulan, Wulan; Yu, Xiao; Yang, Zelong; Gao, Jing; Hua, Weiqi; Yang, Peng; Si, Yaobing

2018-05-01

Spring precipitation is the predominant factor that controls meteorological drought in Inner Mongolia (IM), China. This study used the anomaly percentage of spring precipitation (PAP) as a drought index to measure spring drought. A scheme for forecasting seasonal drought was designed based on evidence of spring drought occurrence and speculative reasoning methods introduced in computer artificial intelligence theory. Forecast signals with sufficient lead-time for predictions of spring drought were extracted from eight crucial areas of oceans and 500-hPa geopotential height. Using standardized values, these signals were synthesized into three examples of spring drought evidence (SDE) depending on their primary effects on three major atmospheric circulation components of spring precipitation in IM: the western Pacific subtropical high, North Polar vortex, and East Asian trough. Thresholds for the SDE were determined following numerical analyses of the influential factors. Furthermore, five logical reasoning rules for distinguishing the occurrence of SDE were designed after examining all possible combined cases. The degree of confidence in the rules was determined based on estimations of their prior probabilities. Then, an optimized logical reasoning scheme was identified for judging the possibility of spring drought. The scheme was successful in hindcast predictions of 11 of the 16 (accuracy: 68.8%) spring droughts that have occurred during 1960-2009. Moreover, the accuracy ratio for the same period was 82.0% for drought (PAP ≤ -20%) or not (PAP > -20%). Predictions for the recent 6-year period (2010-2015) demonstrated successful outcomes.

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haun, J. R.

1975-01-01

The growth-environment relationships for greenhouse and field conditions are compared, and the development of growth-prediction models for spring wheat is discussed along with the development of models for predicting the date for spring wheat emergence in North Dakota.

Predicting the timing and potential of the spring emergence of overwintered populations of Heliothis spp

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartstack, A. W.; Witz, J. A.; Lopez, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The current state of knowledge dealing with the prediction of the overwintering population and spring emergence of Heliothis spp., a serious pest of numerous crops is surveyed. Current literature is reviewed in detail. Temperature and day length are the primary factors which program H. spp. larva for possible diapause. Although studies on the interaction of temperature and day length are reported, the complete diapause induction process is not identified sufficiently to allow accurate prediction of diapause timing. Mortality during diapause is reported as highly variable. The factors causing mortality are identified, but only a few are quantified. The spring emergence of overwintering H. spp. adults and mathematical models which predict the timing of emergence are reviewed. Timing predictions compare favorably to observed field data; however, prediction of actual numbers of emerging moths is not possible. The potential for use of spring emergence predictions in pest management applications, as an early warning of potential crop damage, are excellent. Research requirements to develop such an early warning system are discussed.

Seasonal prediction and predictability of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qiong; Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe; Zhang, Ruonan

2018-01-01

The spring snow water equivalent (SWE) over Eurasia plays an important role in East Asian and Indian monsoon rainfall. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction capability of NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) retrospective forecasts (1983-2010) for the Eurasian spring SWE. The results demonstrate that CFSv2 is able to represent the climatological distribution of the observed Eurasian spring SWE with a lead time of 1-3 months, with the maximum SWE occurring over western Siberia and Northeastern Europe. For a longer lead time, the SWE is exaggerated in CFSv2 because the start of snow ablation in CFSv2 lags behind that of the observation, and the simulated snowmelt rate is less than that in the observation. Generally, CFSv2 can simulate the interannual variations of the Eurasian spring SWE 1-5 months ahead of time but with an exaggerated magnitude. Additionally, the downtrend in CFSv2 is also overestimated. Because the initial conditions (ICs) are related to the corresponding simulation results significantly, the robust interannual variability and the downtrend in the ICs are most likely the causes for these biases. Moreover, CFSv2 exhibits a high potential predictability for the Eurasian spring SWE, especially the spring SWE over Siberia, with a lead time of 1-5 months. For forecasts with lead times longer than 5 months, the model predictability gradually decreases mainly due to the rapid decrease in the model signal.

Inquiries-HDSC/OWP

Science.gov Websites

/Office of Water Prediction 1325 East-West Highway, W/OWP Silver Spring, MD 20910-3283 Main Link Weather Service Office of Water Prediction (OWP) 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910 Page

Barrier Island Ecology: A Professional Development Activity for Faculty and Staff of Calhoun Community College. Field Trip Reference Booklet.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collier, Don; And Others

As part of the Professional Development Workshop at Calhoun Community College, the Department of Natural Sciences conducted the third annual Spring Wilderness Pilgrimage in March 1989, a week-long environmental awareness field trip for faculty and staff. Designed as a study of the plants and animals on a barrier island off the coast of Florida,…

Development of Predicted Paths for ACT Aspire Score Reports. WP-2014-06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Jeff

2014-01-01

This report focuses on the initial development of the predicted score paths for ACT Aspire reporting. The paths provide predicted score ranges for the next two years--as well as predicted ACT score ranges for tests administered at grades 9 and 10. Longitudinal ACT Aspire data for students tested in spring 2013 and spring 2014, as well as…

Maintenance of equilibrium point control during an unexpectedly loaded rapid limb movement.

PubMed

Simmons, R W; Richardson, C

1984-06-08

Two experiments investigated whether the equilibrium point hypothesis or the mass-spring model of motor control subserves positioning accuracy during spring loaded, rapid, bi-articulated movement. For intact preparations, the equilibrium point hypothesis predicts response accuracy to be determined by a mixture of afferent and efferent information, whereas the mass-spring model predicts positioning to be under a direct control system. Subjects completed a series of load-resisted training trials to a spatial target. The magnitude of a sustained spring load was unexpectedly increased on selected trials. Results indicated positioning accuracy and applied force varied with increases in load, which suggests that the original efferent commands are modified by afferent information during the movement as predicted by the equilibrium point hypothesis.

Integrating GLL-Weibull Distribution Within a Bayesian Framework for Life Prediction of Shape Memory Alloy Spring Undergoing Thermo-mechanical Fatigue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Pradeep; Nath, Tameshwer; Palani, I. A.; Lad, Bhupesh K.

2018-06-01

The present paper tackles an important but unmapped problem of the reliability estimations of smart materials. First, an experimental setup is developed for accelerated life testing of the shape memory alloy (SMA) springs. Generalized log-linear Weibull (GLL-Weibull) distribution-based novel approach is then developed for SMA spring life estimation. Applied stimulus (voltage), elongation and cycles of operation are used as inputs for the life prediction model. The values of the parameter coefficients of the model provide better interpretability compared to artificial intelligence based life prediction approaches. In addition, the model also considers the effect of operating conditions, making it generic for a range of the operating conditions. Moreover, a Bayesian framework is used to continuously update the prediction with the actual degradation value of the springs, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the data and improving the prediction accuracy. In addition, the deterioration of material with number of cycles is also investigated using thermogravimetric analysis and scanning electron microscopy.

Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allstadt, Andrew J.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2015-01-01

The onset of spring plant growth has shifted earlier in the year over the past several decades due to rising global temperatures. Earlier spring onset may cause phenological mismatches between the availability of plant resources and dependent animals, and potentially lead to more false springs, when subsequent freezing temperatures damage new plant growth. We used the extended spring indices to project changes in spring onset, defined by leaf out and by first bloom, and predicted false springs until 2100 in the conterminous United States (US) using statistically-downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ensemble. Averaged over our study region, the median shift in spring onset was 23 days earlier in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario with particularly large shifts in the Western US and the Great Plains. Spatial variation in phenology was due to the influence of short-term temperature changes around the time of spring onset versus season long accumulation of warm temperatures. False spring risk increased in the Great Plains and portions of the Midwest, but remained constant or decreased elsewhere. We conclude that global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult.

Tidal and Seasonal River Stage Fluctuations Impact the Formation of Permeable Natural Reactive Barriers in Riverbank Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuai, P.; Myers, K.; Knappett, P.; Cardenas, M. B.

2017-12-01

River stage fluctuations, induced by ocean tides and rainfall, enhance the exchange between oxic river water and reducing groundwater. When mixing occurs within riverbank aquifers high in dissolved iron (Fe) and arsenic (As), the timing and extent of mixing likely control the accumulation and mobility of arsenic (As) within the hyporheic zone. Here we analyzed the impact of tidal and seasonal water level fluctuations on the formation of a Permeable Natural Reactive Barrier (PNRB) within an aquifer adjacent to the Meghna River, Bangladesh and its impact on As mobility. We found that the periodicity and amplitude of river stage fluctuations strongly control the spatial and temporal distribution of the PNRB, comprised of rapidly precipitated iron oxides, in this riverbank along a relatively straight reach of the Meghna River. The PNRB forms much faster and with higher concentration of Fe-oxide under semi-diurnal (12 hr) tidal fluctuations compared to simulations run assuming only neap-spring tides (14 day). As tidal amplitude increases, a larger contact area between oxic river water and reducing groundwater results which in turn leads to the horizontal expansion of the PNRB into the riverbank. Seasonal fluctuations expand the PNRB up to 60 m horizontally and 5 m vertically. In contrast neap-spring tidal fluctuations result in a smaller PNRB that is 10 and 3 m in the horizontal and vertical dimensions. The predicted changes in the spatial distribution of iron oxides within the riverbank would trap and release As at different times of the year. The PNRB could act as a secondary source of As to drinking water aquifers under sustained groundwater pumping scenarios near the river.

Influence of the Summer NAO on the Spring-NAO-Based Predictability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei

2017-04-01

The dominant mode of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic region is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The boreal spring NAO may imprint its signal on contemporaneous sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a North Atlantic SST tripolar pattern (NAST). This pattern persists into the following summer and modulates the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Previous studies have shown that the summer NAST is caused mainly by the preceding spring NAO, whereas the contemporaneous summer NAO plays a secondary role. The results of this study illustrate that, even if the summer NAO plays a secondary role, it may also perturb summer SST anomalies caused by the spring NAO. There are two types of perturbation caused by the summer NAO. If the spring and summer NAO patterns have the same (opposite) polarities, the summer NAST tends to be enhanced (reduced) by the summer NAO, and the correlation between the spring NAO and EASM is usually stronger (weaker). In the former (latter) case, the spring-NAO-based prediction of the EASM tends to have better (limited) skill. These results indicate that it is important to consider the evolution of the NAO when forecasting the EASM, particular when there is a clear reversal in the polarity of the NAO, because it may impair the spring-NAO-based EASM prediction.

Determining the elastic properties of aptamer-ricin single molecule multiple pathway interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Park, Bosoon; Kwon, Yongkuk; Xu, Bingqian

2014-05-01

We report on the elastic properties of ricin and anti-ricin aptamer interactions, which showed three stable binding conformations, each of which has its special elastic properties. These different unbinding pathways were investigated by the dynamic force spectroscopy. A series-spring model combining the worm-like-chain model and Hook's law was used to estimate the apparent spring constants of the aptamer and linker molecule polyethylene glycol. The aptamer in its three different unbinding pathways showed different apparent spring constants. The two reaction barriers in the unbinding pathways also influence the apparent spring constant of the aptamer. This special elastic behavior of aptamer was used to distinguish its three unbinding pathways under different loading rates. This method also offered a way to distinguish and discard the non-specific interactions in single molecule experiments.

The influence of ligament modelling strategies on the predictive capability of finite element models of the human knee joint.

PubMed

Naghibi Beidokhti, Hamid; Janssen, Dennis; van de Groes, Sebastiaan; Hazrati, Javad; Van den Boogaard, Ton; Verdonschot, Nico

2017-12-08

In finite element (FE) models knee ligaments can represented either by a group of one-dimensional springs, or by three-dimensional continuum elements based on segmentations. Continuum models closer approximate the anatomy, and facilitate ligament wrapping, while spring models are computationally less expensive. The mechanical properties of ligaments can be based on literature, or adjusted specifically for the subject. In the current study we investigated the effect of ligament modelling strategy on the predictive capability of FE models of the human knee joint. The effect of literature-based versus specimen-specific optimized material parameters was evaluated. Experiments were performed on three human cadaver knees, which were modelled in FE models with ligaments represented either using springs, or using continuum representations. In spring representation collateral ligaments were each modelled with three and cruciate ligaments with two single-element bundles. Stiffness parameters and pre-strains were optimized based on laxity tests for both approaches. Validation experiments were conducted to evaluate the outcomes of the FE models. Models (both spring and continuum) with subject-specific properties improved the predicted kinematics and contact outcome parameters. Models incorporating literature-based parameters, and particularly the spring models (with the representations implemented in this study), led to relatively high errors in kinematics and contact pressures. Using a continuum modelling approach resulted in more accurate contact outcome variables than the spring representation with two (cruciate ligaments) and three (collateral ligaments) single-element-bundle representations. However, when the prediction of joint kinematics is of main interest, spring ligament models provide a faster option with acceptable outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioral self-concept as predictor of teen drinking behaviors.

PubMed

Dudovitz, Rebecca N; Li, Ning; Chung, Paul J

2013-01-01

Adolescence is a critical developmental period for self-concept (role identity). Cross-sectional studies link self-concept's behavioral conduct domain (whether teens perceive themselves as delinquent) with adolescent substance use. If self-concept actually drives substance use, then it may be an important target for intervention. In this study, we used longitudinal data from 1 school year to examine whether behavioral self-concept predicts teen drinking behaviors or vice versa. A total of 291 students from a large, predominantly Latino public high school completed a confidential computerized survey in the fall and spring of their 9th grade year. Survey measures included the frequency of alcohol use, binge drinking and at-school alcohol use in the previous 30 days; and the Harter Self-Perception Profile for Adolescents behavioral conduct subscale. Multiple regressions were performed to test whether fall self-concept predicted the frequency and type of spring drinking behavior, and whether the frequency and type of fall drinking predicted spring self-concept. Fall behavioral self-concept predicted both the frequency and type of spring drinking. Students with low versus high fall self-concept had a predicted probability of 31% versus 20% for any drinking, 20% versus 8% for binge drinking and 14% versus 4% for at-school drinking in the spring. However, neither the frequency nor the type of fall drinking significantly predicted spring self-concept. Low behavioral self-concept may precede or perhaps even drive adolescent drinking. If these results are confirmed, then prevention efforts might be enhanced by targeting high-risk teens for interventions that help develop a healthy behavioral self-concept. Copyright © 2013 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional, steady-state model of ground-water flow, Nevada Test Site and vicinity, Nevada-California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddell, R.K.

1982-01-01

A two-dimensional, steady-state model of ground-water flow beneath the Nevada Test Site and vicinity has been developed using inverse techniques. The area is underlain by clastic and carbonate rocks of Precambrian and Paleozoic age and by volcanic rocks and alluvium of Tertiary and Quaternary age that have been juxtaposed by normal and strike-slip faulting. Aquifers are composed of carbonate and volcanic rocks and alluvium. Characteristics of the flow system are determined by distribution of low-conductivity rocks (barriers); by recharge originating in the Spring Mountains, Pahranagat, Timpahute, and Sheep Ranges, and in Pahute Mesa; and by underflow beneath Pahute Mesa from Gold Flat and Kawich Valley. Discharge areas (Ash Meadows, Oasis Valley, Alkali Flat, and Furnace Creek Ranch) are upgradient from barriers. Sensitivities of simulated hydraulic heads and fluxes to variations in model parameters were calculated to guide field studies and to help estimate errors in predictions from transport modeling. Hydraulic heads and fluxes are very sensitive to variations in the greater magnitude recharge/discharge terms. Transmissivity at a location may not be the most important transmissivity for determining flux there. Transmissivities and geometries of large barriers that impede flow from Pahute Mesa have major effects on fluxes elsewhere; as their transmissivities are decreased, flux beneath western Jackass Flats and Yucca Mountains is increased as water is diverted around the barriers. Fortymile Canyon is underlain by highly transmissive rocks that cause potentiometric contours to vee upgradient; increasing their transmissivity increases flow through them, and decreases it beneath Yucca Mountain. (USGS)

Concurrent and longitudinal associations of peers' acceptance with emotion and effortful control in kindergarten

PubMed Central

Hernández, Maciel M.; Eisenberg, Nancy; Valiente, Carlos; Diaz, Anjolii; VanSchyndel, Sarah K.; Berger, Rebecca H.; Terrell, Nathan; Silva, Kassondra M.; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Southworth, Jody

2015-01-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate bidirectional associations between peer acceptance and both emotion and effortful control during kindergarten (N = 301). In both the fall and spring semesters, we obtained peer nominations of acceptance, measures of positive and negative emotion based on naturalistic observations in school (i.e., classroom, lunch/recess), and observers’ reports of effortful control (i.e., inhibitory control, attention focusing) and emotions (i.e., positive, negative). In structural equation panel models, peer acceptance in fall predicted higher effortful control in spring. Effortful control in fall did not predict peer acceptance in spring. Negative emotion predicted lower peer acceptance across time for girls but not for boys. Peer acceptance did not predict negative or positive emotion over time. In addition, we tested interactions between positive or negative emotion and effortful control predicting peer acceptance. Positive emotion predicted higher peer acceptance for children low in effortful control. PMID:28348445

Integrierter Ansatz zur Beurteilung eines Aufsuchungsantrages auf Schiefergas in Hessen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsche, Johann-Gerhard; Brodsky, Jan; Heggemann, Heiner; Hoffmann, Michaela; Hottenrott, Martin; Kracht, Matthias; Reischmann, Thomas; Rosenberg, Fred; Schlösser-Kluger, Inga

2016-06-01

In the context of an application for a shale gas exploration license including hydraulic fracturing, the Geological Survey of Hessen (HLNUG) has grouped and ranked structural geological regions in terms of their shale gas potential and the function of overlying rocks as barriers. Tectonic and structural features as well as the type of reservoir have been examined. Rock units overlying the shale gas layers have been classified as hydrogeological units and divided into aquifers and hydraulic barriers. Possible effects on drinking water abstraction facilities, mineral springs and water for industrial use have also been estimated, followed by an analysis of competing requirements for land use. A potential for shale gas can only be identified in a region north of Kassel, covering about 16 % of the claim area. Approximately 65 % of this region is overlapped by protection areas for drinking water and mineral springs, nature reserves and many other areas of public interest.

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shen, S. P.

2001-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Effect of Spring-in Deviation on Fatigue Life of Composite Elevator Assembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hua

2017-12-01

The spring-in deviation results in the extra stresses around the joints of the composite C-beam and metallic parts when they are assembled together. These extra stresses affect the composite elevator's fatigue life, which should be explored with the fatigue experimentation. The paper presents the experimental investigation on the effect of spring-in deviation on the fatigue life of the composite elevator assembly. The investigation seeks to build the relationship between the spring-in and the fatigue life in order to determine the spring-in threshold during the course of assembling. The phenomenological model of the composite C-beam is constructed to predict the stresses around the joints. Based on the predicted spring-in induced stresses around the joints, pre-stresses are precisely added to the fatigue specimen when conducting the fatigue experiment. At last, the relationship curve of the spring-in on the composite C-beam's fatigue life is obtained from the experimental data. Giving the fatigue life accepting limits, the maximum accepting spring-in deviation during the course of assembling could be obtained from the relationship curve. The reported work will enhance the understanding of assembling the composites with spring-in deviation in the civil aircraft industry.

Dynamics behind warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea and its interruption based on in situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, Simi; Natesan, Usha; Latha, Ganesan; Venkatesan, Ramasamy

2018-05-01

A study of the inter-annual variability of the warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) during the spring transition months was carried out from 2013 to 2015 based on in situ data from moored buoys. An attempt was made to identify the roles of the different variables in the warming of the SEAS (e.g., net heat flux, advection, entrainment, and thickness of the barrier layer during the previous northeast monsoon season). The intense freshening of the SEAS (approximately 2 PSU) occurring in each December, together with the presence of a downwelling Rossby wave, supports the formation of a thick barrier layer during the northeast monsoon season. It is known that the barrier layer thickness, varying each year, plays a major role in the spring warming of the SEAS. Interestingly, an anomalously thick barrier layer occurred during the northeast monsoon season of 2012-2013. However, the highest sea surface temperature (31 °C) was recorded during the last week of April 2015, while the lowest sea surface temperature (29.7 °C) was recorded during the last week of May 2013. The mixed layer heat budget analysis during the spring transition months proved that the intense warming has been mainly supported by the net heat flux, not by other factors like advection and entrainment. The inter-annual variability analysis of the net heat flux and its components, averaged over a box region of the SEAS, showed a substantial latent heat flux release and a reduction in net shortwave radiation in 2013. Both factors contributed to the negative net heat flux. Strong breaks in the warming were also observed in May due to the entrainment of cold sub-surface waters. These events are associated with the cyclonic eddy persisting over the SEAS during the same time. The entrainment term, favoring the cooling, was stronger in 2015 than that in 2013 and 2014. The surface temperatures measured in 2013 were lower than those in 2014 and 2015 despite the presence of a thick barrier layer. The substantial decrease in net heat flux along with entrainment cooling has been identified as causes for this behavior.

GIS-based groundwater potential mapping using boosted regression tree, classification and regression tree, and random forest machine learning models in Iran.

PubMed

Naghibi, Seyed Amir; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Dixon, Barnali

2016-01-01

Groundwater is considered one of the most valuable fresh water resources. The main objective of this study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps in the Koohrang Watershed, Chaharmahal-e-Bakhtiari Province, Iran, using three machine learning models: boosted regression tree (BRT), classification and regression tree (CART), and random forest (RF). Thirteen hydrological-geological-physiographical (HGP) factors that influence locations of springs were considered in this research. These factors include slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), slope length (LS), plan curvature, profile curvature, distance to rivers, distance to faults, lithology, land use, drainage density, and fault density. Subsequently, groundwater spring potential was modeled and mapped using CART, RF, and BRT algorithms. The predicted results from the three models were validated using the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC). From 864 springs identified, 605 (≈70 %) locations were used for the spring potential mapping, while the remaining 259 (≈30 %) springs were used for the model validation. The area under the curve (AUC) for the BRT model was calculated as 0.8103 and for CART and RF the AUC were 0.7870 and 0.7119, respectively. Therefore, it was concluded that the BRT model produced the best prediction results while predicting locations of springs followed by CART and RF models, respectively. Geospatially integrated BRT, CART, and RF methods proved to be useful in generating the spring potential map (SPM) with reasonable accuracy.

Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thual, S.; Majda, A.; Chen, N.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. Recently, a simple ENSO model was developed that automatically captures the ENSO diversity and intermittency in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase-locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad-hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Niño events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Niño regions, both the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Niño, the central Pacific El Niño as well as La Niña show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness.

Seasonal Variability May Affect Microbial Decomposers and Leaf Decomposition More Than Warming in Streams.

PubMed

Duarte, Sofia; Cássio, Fernanda; Ferreira, Verónica; Canhoto, Cristina; Pascoal, Cláudia

2016-08-01

Ongoing climate change is expected to affect the diversity and activity of aquatic microbes, which play a key role in plant litter decomposition in forest streams. We used a before-after control-impact (BACI) design to study the effects of warming on a forest stream reach. The stream reach was divided by a longitudinal barrier, and during 1 year (ambient year) both stream halves were at ambient temperature, while in the second year (warmed year) the temperature in one stream half was increased by ca. 3 °C above ambient temperature (experimental half). Fine-mesh bags containing oak (Quercus robur L.) leaves were immersed in both stream halves for up to 60 days in spring and autumn of the ambient and warmed years. We assessed leaf-associated microbial diversity by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and identification of fungal conidial morphotypes and microbial activity by quantifying leaf mass loss and productivity of fungi and bacteria. In the ambient year, no differences were found in leaf decomposition rates and microbial productivities either between seasons or stream halves. In the warmed year, phosphorus concentration in the stream water, leaf decomposition rates, and productivity of bacteria were higher in spring than in autumn. They did not differ between stream halves, except for leaf decomposition, which was higher in the experimental half in spring. Fungal and bacterial communities differed between seasons in both years. Seasonal changes in stream water variables had a greater impact on the activity and diversity of microbial decomposers than a warming regime simulating a predicted global warming scenario.

Measured flow and tracer-dye data showing the anthropogenic effects on the hydrodynamics of south Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, spring 1996 and 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oltmann, Richard N.

1998-01-01

Tidal flows were measured using acoustic Doppler current profilers and ultrasonic velocity meters during spring 1996 and 1997 in south Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, when (1) a temporary barrier was installed at the head of Old River to prevent the entrance of migrating San Joaquin River salmon smolts, (2) the rate of water export from the south Delta was reduced for an extended period of time, and (3) a 30-day pulse flow was created on the San Joaquin River to move salmon smolts north away from the export facilities during spring 1997. Tracer-dye measurements also were made under these three conditions.

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Scholten, Ilse; Bauer, Silke; Cobben, Marleen M P; Ens, Bruno J; Nolet, Bart A

2017-10-01

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Chen, Min; Melaas, Eli K; Gray, Josh M; Friedl, Mark A; Richardson, Andrew D

2016-11-01

A spring phenology model that combines photoperiod with accumulated heating and chilling to predict spring leaf-out dates is optimized using PhenoCam observations and coupled into the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5. In head-to-head comparison (using satellite data from 2003 to 2013 for validation) for model grid cells over the Northern Hemisphere deciduous broadleaf forests (5.5 million km 2 ), we found that the revised model substantially outperformed the standard CLM seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel at both coarse (0.9 × 1.25°) and fine (1 km) scales. The revised model also does a better job of representing recent (decadal) phenological trends observed globally by MODIS, as well as long-term trends (1950-2014) in the PEP725 European phenology dataset. Moreover, forward model runs suggested a stronger advancement (up to 11 days) of spring leaf-out by the end of the 21st century for the revised model. Trends toward earlier advancement are predicted for deciduous forests across the whole Northern Hemisphere boreal and temperate deciduous forest region for the revised model, whereas the standard model predicts earlier leaf-out in colder regions, but later leaf-out in warmer regions, and no trend globally. The earlier spring leaf-out predicted by the revised model resulted in enhanced gross primary production (up to 0.6 Pg C yr -1 ) and evapotranspiration (up to 24 mm yr -1 ) when results were integrated across the study region. These results suggest that the standard seasonal-deciduous submodel in CLM should be reconsidered, otherwise substantial errors in predictions of key land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks may result. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying model-structure- and parameter-driven uncertainties in spring wheat phenology prediction with Bayesian analysis

DOE PAGES

Alderman, Phillip D.; Stanfill, Bryan

2016-10-06

Recent international efforts have brought renewed emphasis on the comparison of different agricultural systems models. Thus far, analysis of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between ensemble prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. Additionally, despite increasing use of Bayesian parameter estimation approaches with field-scale crop models, inadequate attention has been given to the full posterior distributions for estimated parameters. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of parameter value uncertainty on prediction uncertainty for modeling spring wheat phenology using Bayesian analysis and to assess the relativemore » contributions of model-structure-driven and parameter-value-driven uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty. This study used a random walk Metropolis algorithm to estimate parameters for 30 spring wheat genotypes using nine phenology models based on multi-location trial data for days to heading and days to maturity. Across all cases, parameter-driven uncertainty accounted for between 19 and 52% of predictive uncertainty, while model-structure-driven uncertainty accounted for between 12 and 64%. Here, this study demonstrated the importance of quantifying both model-structure- and parameter-value-driven uncertainty when assessing overall prediction uncertainty in modeling spring wheat phenology. More generally, Bayesian parameter estimation provided a useful framework for quantifying and analyzing sources of prediction uncertainty.« less

Spring Break versus Spring Broken: Predictive Utility of Spring Break Alcohol Intentions and Willingness at Varying Levels of Extremity

PubMed Central

Litt, Dana M.; Lewis, Melissa A.; Patrick, Megan E.; Rodriguez, Lindsey; Neighbors, Clayton; Kaysen, Debra L.

2013-01-01

Objective Within the domain of risk-related behavior, many times the decision to engage is not a product of premeditation or intention. The Prototype Willingness model was created to capture and explain the unintended element of risk behavior. The present study aimed to evaluate the importance of willingness versus intention, two important constructs within the Prototype Willingness model, in relation to Spring Break drinking behavior when assessed at both high and low extremities. Method College undergraduates (N = 275) completed questionnaires prior to Spring Break regarding their anticipated Spring Break activities. Willingness and intention were assessed for different levels of risk. Specifically, participants indicated the extent to which they intended to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out; and the extent to which they were willing to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out. When classes resumed following Spring Break, the students indicated the extent to which they actually (a) got drunk and (b) drank enough to black out or pass out. Results Results demonstrated that when the health-related risk was lower (i.e., getting drunk), intention was a stronger predictor of behavior than was willingness. However, as the level of risk increased (i.e., getting drunk enough to black out or pass out), willingness more strongly predicted behavior. Conclusion The present study suggests that willingness and intentions differentially predict Spring Break alcohol-related behavior depending on the extremity of behavior in question. Implications regarding alcohol interventions are discussed. PMID:23404667

Simulation of flow in the Edwards Aquifer, San Antonio region, Texas, and refinement of storage and flow concepts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maclay, Robert W.; Land, Larry F.

1988-01-01

The Edwards aquifer is a complexly faulted, carbonate aquifer lying within the Balcones fault zone of south-central Texas. The aquifer consists of thin- to massive-bedded limestone and dolomite, most of which is in the form of mudstones and wackestones. Well-developed secondary porosity has formed in association with former erosional surfaces within the carbonate rocks, within dolomitized-burrowed tidal and evaporitic deposits, and along inclined fractures to produce an aquifer with transmissivities greater than 100 ft2/s. The aquifer is recharged mainly by streamflow losses in the outcrop area of the Edwards aquifer and is discharged by major springs located at considerable distances, as much as 150 mi, from the areas of recharge and by wells. Ground-water flow within the Edwards aquifer of the San Antonio region was simulated to investigate concepts relating to the storage and flow characteristics. The concepts of major interest were the effects of barrier faults on flow direction, water levels, springflow, and storage within the aquifer. A general-purpose, finite-difference model, modified to provide the capability of representing barrier faults, was used to simulate ground-water flow and storage in the aquifer. The approach in model development was to conduct a series of simulations beginning with a simple representation of the aquifer framework and then proceeding to subsequent representations of increasing complexity. The simulations investigated the effects of complex geologic structures and of significant changes in transmissivity, anisotropy, and storage coefficient. Initial values of transmissivity, anisotropy, and storage coefficient were estimated based on concepts developed in previous studies. Results of the simulations confirmed the original estimates of transmissivity values (greater than 100 square feet/s) in the confined zone of the aquifer between San Antonio and Comal Springs. A storage coefficient of 0.05 in the unconfined zone of the aquifer produced the best simulation of water levels and springflow. A major interpretation resulting from the simulations is that two essentially independent areas of regional flow were identified in the west and central part of the study area. Flows from the two areas converge at Comal Springs. The directions of computed flux vectors reflected the presence of major barrier faults, which locally deflect patterns of ground-water movement. The most noticeable deflection is the convergence of flow through a geologic structural opening, the Knippa gap, in eastern Uvalde County. A second significant interpretation is that ground-water flow in northeastern Bexar, Comal, and Hays Counties is diverted by barrier faults toward San Marcos Springs, a regional discharge point. Simulations showed that several barrier faults in the northwestern part of the San Antonio area had a significant effect on storage, water levels, and springflow within the Edwards aquifer.

Spring-back simulation of unidirectional carbon/epoxy L- shaped laminate composites manufactured through autoclave processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, M. N. M.; Mezeix, L.; Aminanda, Y.; Seman, M. A.; Rivai, A.; Ali, K. M.

2016-02-01

This paper presents an original method in predicting the spring-back for composite aircraft structures using non-linear Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and is an extension of the previous accompanying study on flat geometry samples. Firstly, unidirectional prepreg lay-up samples are fabricated on moulds with different corner angles (30°, 45° and 90°) and the effect on spring-back deformation are observed. Then, the FEA model that was developed in the previous study on flat samples is utilized. The model maintains the physical mechanisms of spring-back such as ply stretching and tool-part interface properties with the additional mechanism in the corner effect and geometrical changes in the tool, part and the tool-part interface components. The comparative study between the experimental data and FEA results show that the FEA model predicts adequately the spring-back deformation within the range of corner angle tested.

Evaluating Gridded Spring Indices Using the USA National Phenology Network's Observational Phenology Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.

2017-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) produces and freely delivers daily and short-term forecast maps of spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States and Alaska using the Spring Indices. These models, which represent the start of biological activity in the spring season, were developed using a long-term observational record of four species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers. Three of the four species continue to be tracked through the USA-NPN's phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook. The gridded Spring Index maps have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. However, to date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of how well the gridded Spring Index maps accurately reflect phenological activity in lilacs and honeysuckles or other species of plants. In this study, we used observational plant phenology data maintained by the USA-NPN to evaluate how well the gridded Spring Index maps match leaf and flowering onset dates in a) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models and b) in several species of deciduous trees. The Spring Index performed strongly at predicting the timing of leaf-out and flowering in lilacs and honeysuckles. The average error between predicted and observed date of onset ranged from 5.9 to 11.4 days. Flowering models performed slightly better than leaf-out models. The degree to which the Spring Indices predicted native deciduous tree leaf and flower phenology varied by year, species, and region. Generally, the models were better predictors of leaf and flowering onset dates in the Northeastern and Midwestern US. These results reveal when and where the Spring Indices are a meaningful proxy of phenological activity across the United States.

Movements by adult cutthroat trout in a lotic system: Implications for watershed-scale management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderson, T.B.; Hubert, W.A.

2009-01-01

Movements by adult cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarkii (Richardson), were assessed from autumn to summer in the Salt River watershed, Wyoming-Idaho, USA by radio telemetry. Adult cutthroat trout were captured during September and October 2005 in the main stem of the Salt River, surgically implanted with radio transmitters, and tracked through to August 2006. Adult cutthroat trout were relatively sedentary and resided primarily in pools from October to March, but their movement rates increased during April. Higher movement rates were observed among tagged fish during May and early June. Among 43 fish residing in the Salt River during April 2006, 44% remained in the river, 37% moved into mountain tributaries and 19% moved into spring streams during the spawning season. Fish did not use segments of mountain tributaries or the upstream Salt River where fish passage was blocked by anthropogenic barriers or the channel was dewatered during summer. Almost all the fish that moved into spring streams used spring streams where pools and gravel-cobble riffles had been constructed by landowners. The results suggest that adult Snake River cutthroat move widely during May and early June to use spawning habitat in mountain tributaries and improved spring streams. Maintaining the ability of adult fish to move into mountain streams with spawning habitat, preserving spawning habitat in accessible mountain tributaries and removing barriers to upstream movements, and re-establishing summer stream flows in mountain tributaries affected by dams appear to be habitat management alternatives to preserve the Snake River cutthroat trout fishery in the Salt River. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ensemble Cannonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shen, Samuel; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble cannonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into nonoverlapping sectors. The cannonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all regions of the US and for all seasonal compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduced the spring predictability barrier over all regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and regional regional data. Moreover, the ECC forecasts can be applied to other climate subsystems and, in conjunction with further diagnostic or model studies will enables a better understanding of the dynamic links between climate variations and precipitation, not only for the US, but also for other regions of the world.

Predicting the Start of the Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Female Adult Biting Season Using the Spring Temperature in Japan

PubMed Central

Higa, Yukiko; Muto, Atsushi; Hirabayashi, Kimio; Yoshida, Masahiro; Sato, Takashi; Nihei, Naoko; Sawabe, Kyoko; Kobayashi, Mutsuo

2017-01-01

Abstract Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is distributed widely and is common in much of Japan. In Japan, female adults begin to bite in between April and June, except in the southern subtropics where the mosquito has no dormant period. It is difficult to estimate the first Ae. albopictus biting day because it varies annually depending on the location. Over several years, we surveyed the mosquitoes at different locations that covered a range of warmer to cooler areas of Japan. We found an association between the timing of first biting day by Ae. albopictus and spring temperature. In spring months, the strongest correlation was found with mean April temperatures, followed by March. Based on these data, it may, therefore, be possible to apply a simple formula to predict the timing of the first biting day at various geographical locations in Japan. Forecasting maps were created using a simple prediction formula. We found that the first biting day for Ae. albopictus changed depending on early spring temperatures for each year. There was an approximate 20-d difference in first biting day between years with warmer and cooler springs. This prediction model will provide useful insight for planning and practice of Ae. albopictus control programs, targeting larvae and adults, in temperate regions globally. PMID:28968909

Inelastic deformation and phenomenological modeling of aluminum including transient effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, C.W.

A review was made of several phenomenological theories which have recently been proposed to describe the inelastic deformation of crystalline solids. Hart's deformation theory has many advantages, but there are disagreements with experimental deformation at stress levels below yield. A new inelastic deformation theory was proposed, introducing the concept of microplasticity. The new model consists of five deformation elements: a friction element representing a deformation element controlled by dislocation glide, a nonrecoverable plastic element representing the dislocation leakage rate over the strong dislocation barriers, a microplastic element representing the dislocation leakage rate over the weak barriers, a short range anelasticmore » spring element representing the recoverable anelastic strain stored by piled-up dislocations against the weak barriers, and a long range anelastic spring element representing the recoverable strain stored by piled-up dislocations against the strong barriers. Load relaxation and tensile testing in the plastic range were used to determine the material parameters for the plastic friction elements. The short range and long range anelastic moduli and the material parameters for the kinetics of microplasticity were determined by the measurement of anelastic loops and by performing load relaxation tests in the microplastic region. Experimental results were compared with a computer simulation of the transient deformation behavior of commercial purity aluminum. An attempt was made to correlate the material parameters and the microstructure from TEM. Stability of material parameters during inelastic deformation was discussed and effect of metallurgical variables was examined experimentally. 71 figures, 5 tables.« less

Does White Clover (Trifolium repens) Abundance in Temperate Pastures Determine Sitona obsoletus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larval Populations?

PubMed

McNeill, Mark R; van Koten, Chikako; Cave, Vanessa M; Chapman, David; Hodgson, Hamish

2016-01-01

To determine if host plant abundance determined the size of clover root weevil (CRW) Sitona obsoletus larval populations, a study was conducted over 4 years in plots sown in ryegrass ( Lolium perenne ) (cv. Nui) sown at either 6 or 30 kg/ha and white clover ( Trifolium repens ) sown at a uniform rate of 8 kg/ha. This provided a range of % white clover content to investigate CRW population establishment and impacts on white clover survival. Larval sampling was carried out in spring (October) when larval densities are near their spring peak at Lincoln (Canterbury, New Zealand) with % clover measured in autumn (April) and spring (September) of each year. Overall, mean larval densities measured in spring 2012-2015 were 310, 38, 59, and 31 larvae m -2 , respectively. There was a significant decline in larval populations between 2012 and 2013, but spring populations were relatively uniform thereafter. The mean % white clover measured in autumns of 2012 to 2015 was 17, 10, 3, and 11%, respectively. In comparison, mean spring % white clover from 2012 to 2015, averaged c. 5% each year. Analysis relating spring (October) larval populations to % white clover measured in each plot in autumn (April) found the 2012 larval population to be statistically significantly larger in the ryegrass 6 kg/ha plots than 30 kg/ha plots. Thereafter, sowing rate had no significant effect on larval populations. From 2013 to 2015, spring larval populations had a negative relationship with the previous autumn % white clover with the relationship highly significant for the 2014 data. When CRW larval populations in spring 2013 to 2015 were predicted from the 2013 to 2015 autumn % white clover, respectively, based on their positive relationship in 2012, the predicted densities were substantially larger than those observed. Conversely, when 2015 spring larval data and % clover was regressed against 2012-2014 larval populations, observed densities tended to be higher than predicted, but the numbers came closer to predicted for the 2013 and 2014 populations. These differences are attributed to a CRW population decline that was not accounted by % white clover changes, the CRW decline most likely due to biological control by the Braconid endoparasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides , which showed incremental increases in parasitism between 2012 and 2015, which in 2015 averaged 93%.

75 FR 17410 - Agency Forms Undergoing Paperwork Reduction Act Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-06

... the practical barriers that may prevent wider adoption of NIOSH recommendations and practices designed to safeguard mine workers. In the Spring of 2007, NIOSH conducted a pretest of the survey questionnaire with nine underground coal mine operators. The pretest instrument contained 81 questions...

Fatigue Life Assessment of 65Si7 Leaf Springs: A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Arora, Vinkel Kumar; Bhushan, Gian; Aggarwal, M. L.

2014-01-01

The experimental fatigue life prediction of leaf springs is a time consuming process. The engineers working in the field of leaf springs always face a challenge to formulate alternate methods of fatigue life assessment. The work presented in this paper provides alternate methods for fatigue life assessment of leaf springs. A 65Si7 light commercial vehicle leaf spring is chosen for this study. The experimental fatigue life and load rate are determined on a full scale leaf spring testing machine. Four alternate methods of fatigue life assessment have been depicted. Firstly by SAE spring design manual approach the fatigue test stroke is established and by the intersection of maximum and initial stress the fatigue life is predicted. The second method constitutes a graphical method based on modified Goodman's criteria. In the third method codes are written in FORTRAN for fatigue life assessment based on analytical technique. The fourth method consists of computer aided engineering tools. The CAD model of the leaf spring has been prepared in solid works and analyzed using ANSYS. Using CAE tools, ideal type of contact and meshing elements have been proposed. The method which provides fatigue life closer to experimental value and consumes less time is suggested. PMID:27379327

Assessment of the forecast skill of spring onset in the NMME experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrillo, C. M.; Ault, T.

2017-12-01

This study assesses the predictability of spring onset using an index of its interannual variability. We use the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experiment to assess this predictability. The input dataset to compute spring onset index, SI-x, were treated with a daily joint bias correction (JBC) approach, and the SI-x outputs were post-processed using three ensemble model output statistic (EMOS) approaches—logistic regression, Gaussian Ensemble Dressing, and non-homogeneous Gaussian regression. These EMOS approaches quantify the effect of training period length and ensemble size on forecast skill. The highest range of predictability for the timing spring onset is from 10 to 60 days, and it is located along a narrow band between 35° to 45°N in the US. Using rank probability scores based on quantiles (q), a forecast threshold (q) of 0.5 provides a range of predictability that falls into two categories 10-40 and 40-60 days, which seems to represent the effect of the intra-seasonal scale. Using higher thresholds (q=0.6 and 0.7) predictability shows lower range with values around 10-30 days. The post-processing work using JBC improves the predictability skill by 13% from uncorrected results. Using EMOS, a significant positive change in the skill score is noted in regions where the skill with JBC shows evidence of improvement. The consensus of these techniques shows that regions of better predictability can be expanded.

Based on Artificial Neural Network to Realize K-Parameter Analysis of Vehicle Air Spring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, San-Shan; Hsu, Chia-Ning; Hwang, Chang-Chou; Chen, Wen-Jan

2017-10-01

In recent years, because of the air-spring control technique is more mature, that air- spring suspension systems already can be used to replace the classical vehicle suspension system. Depend on internal pressure variation of the air-spring, thestiffnessand the damping factor can be adjusted. Because of air-spring has highly nonlinear characteristic, therefore it isn’t easy to construct the classical controller to control the air-spring effectively. The paper based on Artificial Neural Network to propose a feasible control strategy. By using offline way for the neural network design and learning to the air-spring in different initial pressures and different loads, offline method through, predict air-spring stiffness parameter to establish a model. Finally, through adjusting air-spring internal pressure to change the K-parameter of the air-spring, realize the well dynamic control performance of air-spring suspension.

Analytical Prediction of Lower Leg Injury in a Vehicular Mine Blast Event

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the spring constant of the tibia is nearly arbitrary; the spring constant of the boot assumes a hard ethylene propylene diene monomer ( EPDM ) rubber ...the sole of the boot. The significantly lower spring constant of the EPDM rubber in the sole compared to the bone structures greatly diminished the

Delineating spring recharge areas in a fractured sandstone aquifer (Luxembourg) based on pesticide mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farlin, J.; Drouet, L.; Gallé, T.; Pittois, D.; Bayerle, M.; Braun, C.; Maloszewski, P.; Vanderborght, J.; Elsner, M.; Kies, A.

2013-06-01

A simple method to delineate the recharge areas of a series of springs draining a fractured aquifer is presented. Instead of solving the flow and transport equations, the delineation is reformulated as a mass balance problem assigning arable land in proportion to the pesticide mass discharged annually in a spring at minimum total transport cost. The approach was applied to the Luxembourg Sandstone, a fractured-rock aquifer supplying half of the drinking water for Luxembourg, using the herbicide atrazine. Predictions of the recharge areas were most robust in situations of strong competition by neighbouring springs while the catchment boundaries for isolated springs were extremely sensitive to the parameter controlling flow direction. Validation using a different pesticide showed the best agreement with the simplest model used, whereas using historical crop-rotation data and spatially distributed soil-leaching data did not improve predictions. The whole approach presents the advantage of integrating objectively information on land use and pesticide concentration in spring water into the delineation of groundwater recharge zones in a fractured-rock aquifer.

Continuum vs. spring network models of airway-parenchymal interdependence

PubMed Central

Ma, Baoshun

2012-01-01

The outward tethering forces exerted by the lung parenchyma on the airways embedded within it are potent modulators of the ability of the airway smooth muscle to shorten. Much of our understanding of these tethering forces is based on treating the parenchyma as an elastic continuum; yet, on a small enough scale, the lung parenchyma in two dimensions would seem to be more appropriately described as a discrete spring network. We therefore compared how the forces and displacements in the parenchyma surrounding a contracting airway are predicted to differ depending on whether the parenchyma is modeled as an elastic continuum or as a spring network. When the springs were arranged hexagonally to represent alveolar walls, the predicted parenchymal stresses and displacements propagated substantially farther away from the airway than when the springs were arranged in a triangular pattern or when the parenchyma was modeled as a continuum. Thus, to the extent that the parenchyma in vivo behaves as a hexagonal spring network, our results suggest that the range of interdependence forces due to airway contraction may have a greater influence than was previously thought. PMID:22500006

Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-01

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.

Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-28

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.

The Theory of Planned Behavior as it predicts potential intention to seek mental health services for depression among college students.

PubMed

Bohon, Lisa M; Cotter, Kelly A; Kravitz, Richard L; Cello, Philip C; Fernandez Y Garcia, Erik

2016-01-01

Between 9.5% and 31.3% of college students suffer from depression (American college health association national college health assessment II: reference group executive summary spring 2013. Amer. Coll. Health Assoc. 2013; Eagan K, Stolzenberg EB, Ramirez JJ, Aragon, MC, Suchard, RS, Hurtado S. The American freshman: national norms fall 2014. Higher Educ. Res. Inst.; 2015). Universities need to understand the factors that relate to care-seeking behavior. Across 3 studies, to relate attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control to intention to seek mental health services, and to investigate barriers to care-seeking. University college students (N = 845, 64% female, 26% male, and 10% unspecified). New measures were created in Studies 1 and 2, and were examined using structural equation modeling in Study 3. Partially consistent with the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, I, Fishbein, M. Understanding Attitudes and Predicting Social Behavior. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall; 1980), a model with an excellent fit revealed that more positive attitudes about care and higher perceived behavioral control directly predicted higher intention to seek mental health services. Educating college students about mental health disorders and treatments, enhancing knowledge about available services, and addressing limited access to long-term care might improve treatment rates for students suffering from depression.

Education Technology Survey, 1995.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quality Education Data, Inc., Denver, CO.

Primary research (in-depth telephone interviews) was conducted among elementary and secondary school educators in Spring 1995 to determine usage, attitudes, and barriers to usage for five electronic in-school services: Cable in the Classroom; computers, laserdisc or CD-ROM; Internet; online computer services such as America Online and Prodigy; and…

Improved Seals for High Temperature Airframe Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMange, Jeffrey J.; Dunlap, Patrick H.; Steinetz, Bruce M.

2006-01-01

Current thermal barrier seals, such as those used on the Space Shuttle, are insufficient to fully meet the demands of future hypersonic vehicles and reentry spacecraft. Previous investigations have demonstrated limited usage temperatures, as evidenced by a decreased ability to maintain sealing effectiveness at high temperatures (i.e., inadequate resiliency). In order to improve resiliency at elevated temperatures, Rene 41 (Allvac) was substituted for Inconel X-750 (Special Metals Corp.) as the spring tube material in the existing seal design. A seal construction incorporating the Rene 41 spring tube was fabricated and tested against the baseline Inconel X-750 spring tube seal. Although resiliency improvements were not as dramatic as in previous tests with the spring tubes alone, seals incorporating the Rene 41 spring tube exhibited an average 20 percent resiliency enhancement up to 1750 F when compared to seals containing the Inconel spring tube. In addition, the seals with the Rene 41 spring tubes showed less reduction in resiliency as temperatures increased above 1200 F. Results also indicated the Saffil (Saffil Ltd.) insulation in the core of the seal contributed more to resiliency than previously thought. Leakage data did not demonstrate an improvement with the seal containing the Rene 41 spring tube. However, based upon resiliency results, one could reasonably expect the Rene 41 version of the seal to track gap openings over a wider range. Therefore it would exhibit lower leakage than the Inconel X-750 version as the seal gap opens during a typical mission.

Climate Change Simulations Predict Altered Biotic Response in a Thermally Heterogeneous Stream System

PubMed Central

Westhoff, Jacob T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2014-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase water temperatures in many lotic systems, but little is known about how changes in air temperature affect lotic systems heavily influenced by groundwater. Our objectives were to document spatial variation in temperature for spring-fed Ozark streams in Southern Missouri USA, create a spatially explicit model of mean daily water temperature, and use downscaled climate models to predict the number of days meeting suitable stream temperature for three aquatic species of concern to conservation and management. Longitudinal temperature transects and stationary temperature loggers were used in the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers during 2012 to determine spatial and temporal variability of water temperature. Groundwater spring influence affected river water temperatures in both winter and summer, but springs that contributed less than 5% of the main stem discharge did not affect river temperatures beyond a few hundred meters downstream. A multiple regression model using variables related to season, mean daily air temperature, and a spatial influence factor (metric to account for groundwater influence) was a strong predictor of mean daily water temperature (r2 = 0.98; RMSE = 0.82). Data from two downscaled climate simulations under the A2 emissions scenario were used to predict daily water temperatures for time steps of 1995, 2040, 2060, and 2080. By 2080, peak numbers of optimal growth temperature days for smallmouth bass are expected to shift to areas with more spring influence, largemouth bass are expected to experience more optimal growth days (21 – 317% increase) regardless of spring influence, and Ozark hellbenders may experience a reduction in the number of optimal growth days in areas with the highest spring influence. Our results provide a framework for assessing fine-scale (10 s m) thermal heterogeneity and predict shifts in thermal conditions at the watershed and reach scale. PMID:25356982

200-BP-1 Prototype Hanford Barrier - 15 Years of Performance Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, Anderson L.; Link, Steven O.; Draper, Kathryn E.

2009-09-01

Engineered surface barriers are recognized as a remedial alternative to the removal, treatment and disposal of near-surface contaminants at a variety of waste sites within the DOE complex. One issue impacting their acceptance by stakeholders the use of limited data to predict long-term performance. In 1994, a 2-ha multi-component barrier was constructed over an existing waste disposal site at Hanford using natural materials. Monitoring has been almost continuous for the last 15 yrs and has focused on barrier stability, vegetative cover, plant and animal intrusion, and the components of the water balance, including precipitation, runoff, storage, drainage, and percolation. Themore » total precipitation received from October 1994 through August 2008 was 3311 mm on the northern half (formerly irrigated), and 2638 mm on the southern, non-irrigated half. Water storage in the fine-soil layer shows a cyclic pattern, increasing in the winter and decreasing in the spring and summer to a lower limit of around 100 mm, regardless of precipitation, in response to evapotranspiration. Topographic surveys show the barrier and side slopes to be stable and the pea-gravel admix has proven effective in minimizing erosion through the creation of a desert pavement during deflationary periods. Three runoff events have been observed but the 600-mm design storage capacity has never been exceeded. Total percolation ranged from near zero amounts under the soil-covered plots to over 600 mm under the side slopes. The asphaltic concrete prevented any of this water from reaching the buried waste thereby eliminating the driving force for the contaminant remobilization. Plant surveys show a relatively high coverage of native plants still persists after the initial revegetation although the number of species decreased from 35 in 1994 to 10 in 2009. Ample evidence of insect and small mammal use suggests that the barrier is behaving like a recovering ecosystem. In September 2008, the north half of the barrier was burned to remove vegetation and study the effects of fire on barrier performance. The most immediate effects has been on water storage patterns with the bare surface showing a slower accumulation of water, a smaller peak storage and a delayed release relative to the unburned side due to evaporation . Nonetheless the residual storage at the end of the year was similar for the burned and unburned sides.« less

A Preliminary Investigation of Caffeinated Alcohol Use During Spring Break.

PubMed

Linden-Carmichael, Ashley N; Lau-Barraco, Cathy

2016-06-06

Caffeinated alcoholic beverages (e.g., Red Bull and vodka) are popular but associated with negative consequences. CABs may be particularly popular during Spring Break, a potentially risky social event. We aimed to identify the prevalence of Spring Break caffeinated alcohol use, determine how caffeinated alcohol use Spring Break drinking habits differ from usual, and examine the association between Spring Break caffeinated alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. Data were collected from 95 college students during March of 2013 and 2014. Students completed questionnaires of their alcohol and caffeinated alcohol use before and during Spring Break and Spring Break alcohol-related problems. Approximately 54% of students used caffeinated alcohol during Spring Break. Spring Break caffeinated alcohol use was associated with more alcohol-related problems, even after controlling for other alcohol consumed and Spring Break vacation status. Caffeinated alcoholic beverages are commonly consumed during Spring Break and their use uniquely predicted harms. Prevention efforts placed on caffeinated alcoholic beverage users may be helpful in reducing Spring Break-related harms.

Assessment Testing: Analysis and Predictions, Spring-Fall 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Howard L.; Hansson, Claudia J.

During spring and fall 1985, a study was conducted at Cosumnes River College (CRC) to determine how assessment testing scores related to student persistence and performance. The student history files of a random sample of 498 students who had been tested by the CRC Assessment Center during spring and fall 1985 were examined, yielding the following…

Potential for travertine formation: Fossil Creek, Arizona

Treesearch

John Malusa; Steven T. Overby; Roderic A. Parnell

2003-01-01

Chemical analyses of water emanating from Fossil Springs in Central Arizona were conducted to predict changes in travertine deposition related to changes in stream discharge caused by diversion for hydroelectric power generation. During spring of 1996, water was sampled at 15 locations during normal seepage flow in a 6.7 km reach below Fossil Springs and at full...

Spatial distribution and risk assessment of Johnsongrass (sorghum halepense) in Big Bend National Park, Texas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We used Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery to illustrate how remotely sensed data can model predicted Johnsongrass habitat. We used spectral reflectance values for three seasons of data across 5 years (fall 1999, summer and fall 2000, spring and fall 2001, spring 2002, and spring 2003) to capture Johnsongrass v...

Using daily temperature to predict phenology trends in spring flowers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin-Hee; Kim, Soo-Ock; Kim, Dae-Jun; Moon, Kyung Hwan; Yun, Jin I.

2015-05-01

The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers blooming sequentially one after another. This enables local governments to earn substantial sightseeing revenues by hosting festivals featuring spring flowers. Furthermore, beekeepers move from the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula all the way northward in a quest to secure spring flowers as nectar sources for a sustained period of time. However, areal differences in flowering dates of flower species are narrowing, which has economic consequences. Analysis of data on flowering dates of forsythia ( Forsythia koreana) and cherry blossom ( Prunus serrulata), two typical spring flower species, as observed for the past 60 years at six weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicated that the difference between the flowering date of forsythia, the earliest blooming flower in spring, and cherry blossom, which flowers later than forsythia, was 14 days on average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, compared with 11 days for the period 1981-2010. In 2014, the gap narrowed further to 7 days, making it possible in some locations to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time. Synchronized flowering of these two flower species is due to acceleration of flowering due to an abnormally high spring temperature, and this was more pronounced in the later-blooming cherry blossom than forsythia. While cherry blossom flowering dates across the nation ranged from March 31 to April 19 (an areal difference of 20 days) for the 1951-1980 normal year, the difference ranged from March 29 to April 12 (an areal difference of 16 days) for the 1981-2010 normal year, and in 2014, the flowering dates spanned March 25 and March 30 (an areal difference of 6 days). In the case of forsythia, the gap was narrower than in cherry blossoms. Climate change in the Korean Peninsula, reflected by rapid temperature hikes in late spring in contrast to a slow temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release, likely brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossom. We derived a thermal time-based flowering model from this analysis and used it to predict the flowering dates of forsythia and cherry blossom in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species, showing a feasibility of prediction under the changing climate.

Scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

PubMed

Ross, Callum F; Reed, David A; Washington, Rhyan L; Eckhardt, Alison; Anapol, Fred; Shahnoor, Nazima

2009-01-01

The biomechanical determinants of the scaling of chew cycle duration are important components of models of primate feeding systems at all levels, from the neuromechanical to the ecological. Chew cycle durations were estimated in 35 species of primates and analyzed in conjunction with data on morphological variables of the feeding system estimating moment of inertia of the mandible and force production capacity of the chewing muscles. Data on scaling of primate chew cycle duration were compared with the predictions of simple pendulum and forced mass-spring system models of the feeding system. The gravity-driven pendulum model best predicts the observed cycle duration scaling but is rejected as biomechanically unrealistic. The forced mass-spring model predicts larger increases in chew cycle duration with size than observed, but provides reasonable predictions of cycle duration scaling. We hypothesize that intrinsic properties of the muscles predict spring-like behavior of the jaw elevator muscles during opening and fast close phases of the jaw cycle and that modulation of stiffness by the central nervous system leads to spring-like properties during the slow close/power stroke phase. Strepsirrhines show no predictable relationship between chew cycle duration and jaw length. Anthropoids have longer chew cycle durations than nonprimate mammals with similar mandible lengths, possibly due to their enlarged symphyses, which increase the moment of inertia of the mandible. Deviations from general scaling trends suggest that both scaling of the jaw muscles and the inertial properties of the mandible are important in determining the scaling of chew cycle duration in primates.

Informing geobiology through GIS site suitability analysis: locating springs in mantle units of ophiolites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, A.; Cardace, D.; August, P.

2012-12-01

Springs sourced in the mantle units of ophiolites serve as windows to the deep biosphere, and thus hold promise in elucidating survival strategies of extremophiles, and may also inform discourse on the origin of life on Earth. Understanding how organisms can survive in extreme environments provides clues to how microbial life responds to gradients in pH, temperature, and oxidation-reduction potential. Spring locations associated with serpentinites have traditionally been located using a variety of field techniques. The aqueous alteration of ultramafic rocks to serpentinites is accompanied by the production of very unusual formation fluids, accessed by drilling into subsurface flow regimes or by sampling at related surface springs. The chemical properties of these springs are unique to water associated with actively serpentinizing rocks; they reflect a reducing subsurface environment reacting at low temperatures producing high pH, Ca-rich formation fluids with high dissolved hydrogen and methane. This study applies GIS site suitability analysis to locate high pH springs upwelling from Coast Range Ophiolite serpentinites in Northern California. We used available geospatial data (e.g., geologic maps, topography, fault locations, known spring locations, etc.) and ArcGIS software to predict new spring localities. Important variables in the suitability model were: (a) bedrock geology (i.e., unit boundaries and contacts for peridotite, serpentinite, possibly pyroxenite, or chromite), (b) fault locations, (c) regional data for groundwater characteristics such as pH, Ca2+, and Mg2+, and (d) slope-aspect ratio. The GIS model derived from these geological and environmental data sets predicts the latitude/longitude points for novel and known high pH springs sourced in serpentinite outcrops in California. Field work confirms the success of the model, and map output can be merged with published environmental microbiology data (e.g., occurrence of hydrogen-oxidizers) to showcase patterns in microbial community structure. Discrepancies between predicted and actual spring locations are then used to tune GIS suitability analysis, re-running the model with corrected geo-referenced data. This presentation highlights a powerful GIS-based technique for accelerating field exploration in this area of ongoing research.

Observation of an optical spring with a beam splitter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cripe, Jonathan; Danz, Baylee; Lane, Benjamin; Lorio, Mary Catherine; Falcone, Julia; Cole, Garrett D.; Corbitt, Thomas

2018-05-01

We present the experimental observation of an optical spring without the use of an optical cavity. The optical spring is produced by interference at a beamsplitter and, in principle, does not have the damping force associated with optical springs created in detuned cavities. The experiment consists of a Michelson-Sagnac interferometer (with no recycling cavities) with a partially reflective GaAs microresonator as the beamsplitter that produces the optical spring. Our experimental measurements at input powers of up to 360 mW show the shift of the optical spring frequency as a function of power and are in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. In addition, we show that the optical spring is able to keep the interferometer stable and locked without the use of external feedback.

A piecewise mass-spring-damper model of the human breast.

PubMed

Cai, Yiqing; Chen, Lihua; Yu, Winnie; Zhou, Jie; Wan, Frances; Suh, Minyoung; Chow, Daniel Hung-Kay

2018-01-23

Previous models to predict breast movement whilst performing physical activities have, erroneously, assumed uniform elasticity within the breast. Consequently, the predicted displacements have not yet been satisfactorily validated. In this study, real time motion capture of the natural vibrations of a breast that followed, after raising and allowing it to fall freely, revealed an obvious difference in the vibration characteristics above and below the static equilibrium position. This implied that the elastic and viscous damping properties of a breast could vary under extension or compression. Therefore, a new piecewise mass-spring-damper model of a breast was developed with theoretical equations to derive values for its spring constants and damping coefficients from free-falling breast experiments. The effective breast mass was estimated from the breast volume extracted from a 3D body scanned image. The derived spring constant (k a  = 73.5 N m -1 ) above the static equilibrium position was significantly smaller than that below it (k b  = 658 N m -1 ), whereas the respective damping coefficients were similar (c a  = 1.83 N s m -1 , c b  = 2.07 N s m -1 ). These values were used to predict the nipple displacement during bare-breasted running for validation. The predicted and experimental results had a 2.6% or less root-mean-square-error of the theoretical and experimental amplitudes, so the piecewise mass-spring-damper model and equations were considered to have been successfully validated. This provides a theoretical basis for further research into the dynamic, nonlinear viscoelastic properties of different breasts and the prediction of external forces for the necessary breast support during different sports activities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Processes in the development of mathematics in kindergarten children from Title 1 schools.

PubMed

Foster, Matthew E; Anthony, Jason L; Clements, Doug H; Sarama, Julie H

2015-12-01

This study examined how well nonverbal IQ (or fluid intelligence), vocabulary, phonological awareness (PA), rapid autonomized naming (RAN), and phonological short-term memory (STM) predicted mathematics outcomes. The 208 participating kindergartners were administered tests of fluid intelligence, vocabulary, PA, RAN, STM, and numeracy in the fall of kindergarten, whereas tests of numeracy and applied problems were administered in the spring of kindergarten. Fall numeracy scores accounted for substantial variation in spring outcomes (R(2) values = .49 and .32 for numeracy and applied problems, respectively), which underscores the importance of preschool math instruction and screening for mathematics learning difficulties on entry into kindergarten. Fluid intelligence and PA significantly predicted unique variation in spring numeracy scores (ΔR(2) = .05) after controlling for autoregressive effects and classroom nesting. Fluid intelligence, PA, and STM significantly predicted unique variation in spring applied problems scores (ΔR(2) = .14) after controlling for autoregressive effects and classroom nesting. Although the contributions of fluid intelligence, PA, and STM toward math outcomes were reliable and arguably important, they were small. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soft tissue modelling with conical springs.

PubMed

Omar, Nadzeri; Zhong, Yongmin; Jazar, Reza N; Subic, Aleksandar; Smith, Julian; Shirinzadeh, Bijan

2015-01-01

This paper presents a new method for real-time modelling soft tissue deformation. It improves the traditional mass-spring model with conical springs to deal with nonlinear mechanical behaviours of soft tissues. A conical spring model is developed to predict soft tissue deformation with reference to deformation patterns. The model parameters are formulated according to tissue deformation patterns and the nonlinear behaviours of soft tissues are modelled with the stiffness variation of conical spring. Experimental results show that the proposed method can describe different tissue deformation patterns using one single equation and also exhibit the typical mechanical behaviours of soft tissues.

Model-data assimilation of multiple phenological observations to constrain and predict leaf area index.

PubMed

Viskari, Toni; Hardiman, Brady; Desai, Ankur R; Dietze, Michael C

2015-03-01

Our limited ability to accurately simulate leaf phenology is a leading source of uncertainty in models of ecosystem carbon cycling. We evaluate if continuously updating canopy state variables with observations is beneficial for predicting phenological events. We employed ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) to update predictions of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf extension using tower-based photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) data for 2002-2005 at Willow Creek, Wisconsin, USA, a mature, even-aged, northern hardwood, deciduous forest. The ecosystem demography model version 2 (ED2) was used as the prediction model, forced by offline climate data. EAKF successfully incorporated information from both the observations and model predictions weighted by their respective uncertainties. The resulting. estimate reproduced the observed leaf phenological cycle in the spring and the fall better than a parametric model prediction. These results indicate that during spring the observations contribute most in determining the correct bud-burst date, after which the model performs well, but accurately modeling fall leaf senesce requires continuous model updating from observations. While the predicted net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 precedes tower observations and unassimilated model predictions in the spring, overall the prediction follows observed NEE better than the model alone. Our results show state data assimilation successfully simulates the evolution of plant leaf phenology and improves model predictions of forest NEE.

Barriers to Quitting Smoking among Substance Dependent Patients Predict Smoking Cessation Treatment Outcome

PubMed Central

Martin, Rosemarie A.; Cassidy, Rachel; Murphy, Cara M.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.

2016-01-01

For smokers with substance use disorders (SUD), perceived barriers to quitting smoking include concerns unique to effects on sobriety as well as usual concerns. We expanded our Barriers to Quitting Smoking in Substance Abuse Treatment (BQS-SAT) scale, added importance ratings, validated it, and then used the importance scores to predict smoking treatment response in smokers with substance use disorders (SUD) undergoing smoking treatment in residential treatment programs in two studies (n = 184 and 340). Both components (General Barriers, Weight Concerns) were replicated with excellent internal consistency reliability. Construct validity was supported by significant correlations with pretreatment nicotine dependence, smoking variables, smoking self-efficacy, and expected effects of smoking. General Barriers significantly predicted 1-month smoking abstinence, frequency and heaviness, and 3-month smoking frequency; Weight Concerns predicted 1-month smoking frequency. Implications involve addressing barriers with corrective information in smoking treatment for smokers with SUD. PMID:26979552

Barriers to Quitting Smoking Among Substance Dependent Patients Predict Smoking Cessation Treatment Outcome.

PubMed

Martin, Rosemarie A; Cassidy, Rachel N; Murphy, Cara M; Rohsenow, Damaris J

2016-05-01

For smokers with substance use disorders (SUD), perceived barriers to quitting smoking include concerns unique to effects on sobriety as well as usual concerns. We expanded our Barriers to Quitting Smoking in Substance Abuse Treatment (BQS-SAT) scale, added importance ratings, validated it, and then used the importance scores to predict smoking treatment response in smokers with substance use disorders (SUD) undergoing smoking treatment in residential treatment programs in two studies (n=184 and 340). Both components (general barriers, weight concerns) were replicated with excellent internal consistency reliability. Construct validity was supported by significant correlations with pretreatment nicotine dependence, smoking variables, smoking self-efficacy, and expected effects of smoking. General barriers significantly predicted 1-month smoking abstinence, frequency and heaviness, and 3-month smoking frequency; weight concerns predicted 1-month smoking frequency. Implications involve addressing barriers with corrective information in smoking treatment for smokers with SUD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Make Development Decisions Predictable and Fair: Green Tape Program, Silver Spring, Maryland

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Montgomery County's Green Tape program is making redevelopment in Silver Spring, Maryland, faster and more cost effective by speeding the permitting process for development in the mixed-use city center.

Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Niño prediction errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua

2018-04-01

Errors in initial conditions and model parameters (MPs) are the main sources that limit the accuracy of ENSO predictions. In addition to exploring the initial error-induced prediction errors, model errors are equally important in determining prediction performance. In this paper, the MP-related optimal errors that can cause prominent error growth in ENSO predictions are investigated using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Two MPs related to the Bjerknes feedback are considered in the CNOP analysis: one involves the SST-surface wind coupling ({α _τ } ), and the other involves the thermocline effect on the SST ({α _{Te}} ). The MP-related optimal perturbations (denoted as CNOP-P) are found uniformly positive and restrained in a small region: the {α _τ } component is mainly concentrated in the central equatorial Pacific, and the {α _{Te}} component is mainly located in the eastern cold tongue region. This kind of CNOP-P enhances the strength of the Bjerknes feedback and induces an El Niño- or La Niña-like error evolution, resulting in an El Niño-like systematic bias in this model. The CNOP-P is also found to play a role in the spring predictability barrier (SPB) for ENSO predictions. Evidently, such error growth is primarily attributed to MP errors in small areas based on the localized distribution of CNOP-P. Further sensitivity experiments firmly indicate that ENSO simulations are sensitive to the representation of SST-surface wind coupling in the central Pacific and to the thermocline effect in the eastern Pacific in the ICM. These results provide guidance and theoretical support for the future improvement in numerical models to reduce the systematic bias and SPB phenomenon in ENSO predictions.

Terrestrial–aquatic linkages in spring-fed and snowmelt-dominated streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, Adam

2017-01-01

The importance of trophic linkages between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems is predicted to vary as a function of subsidy quantity and quality relative to in situ resources. To test this prediction, I used multi-year diet data from Bonneville cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki Utah in spring-fed and snowmelt-driven streams in the high desert of western North America. I documented that trout in spring-fed streams consumed more (number and weight) aquatic than terrestrial invertebrates, while trout in snowmelt-driven streams consumed a similar number of both prey types but consumed more terrestrial than aquatic invertebrates by weight. Trout in spring-fed streams consumed more aquatic invertebrates than trout in snowmelt streams and trout consumed more terrestrial invertebrates in snowmelt than in spring-fed streams. Up to 93% of trout production in spring-fed streams and 60% in snowmelt streams was fueled by aquatic invertebrates, while the remainder of trout production in each stream type was from terrestrial production. I found that the biomass and occurrence of consumed terrestrial invertebrates were not related to our measures of in situ resource quality or quantity in either stream type. These empirical data highlight the importance of autotrophic-derived production to trout in xeric regions.

Does self-compassion mitigate the relationship between burnout and barriers to compassion? A cross-sectional quantitative study of 799 nurses.

PubMed

Dev, Vinayak; Fernando, Antonio T; Lim, Anecita Gigi; Consedine, Nathan S

2018-05-01

Burnout has numerous negative consequences for nurses, potentially impairing their ability to deliver compassionate patient care. However, the association between burnout and compassion and, more specifically, barriers to compassion in medicine is unclear. This article evaluates the associations between burnout and barriers to compassion and examines whether dispositional self-compassion might mitigate this association. Consistent with prior work, the authors expected greater burnout to predict greater barriers to compassion. We also expected self-compassion - the ability to be kind to the self during times of distress - to weaken the association between burnout and barriers to compassion among nurses. Registered nurses working in New Zealand medical contexts were recruited using non-random convenience sampling. Following consent, 799 valid participants completed a cross-sectional survey including the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory, the Barriers to Physician Compassion scale, and a measure of dispositional self-compassion. As expected, greater burnout predicted greater barriers to compassion while self-compassion predicted fewer barriers. However, self-compassion mitigated the association between burnout and burnout related barriers to compassion (but not other barriers). The interaction suggested that suggested that the association was stronger (rather than weaker) among those with greater self-compassion. Understanding the lack of compassion and the effects of burnout in patient care are priorities in health. This report extends evidence on the association between burnout and compassion-fatigue to show that burnout also predicts the experience of specific barriers to compassion. While self-compassion predicted lower burnout and barriers, it may not necessarily reduce the extent to which burnout contributes to the experience of barriers to compassion in medicine. Implications for understanding how burnout manifests in barriers to clinical compassion, interventions and professional training, and future directions in nursing are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observation of an optical spring with a beam splitter.

PubMed

Cripe, Jonathan; Danz, Baylee; Lane, Benjamin; Lorio, Mary Catherine; Falcone, Julia; Cole, Garrett D; Corbitt, Thomas

2018-05-01

We present the experimental observation of an optical spring without the use of an optical cavity. The optical spring is produced by interference at a beam splitter and, in principle, does not have the damping force associated with optical springs created in detuned cavities. The experiment consists of a Michelson-Sagnac interferometer (with no recycling cavities) with a partially reflective GaAs microresonator as the beam splitter that produces the optical spring. Our experimental measurements at input powers of up to 360 mW show the shift of the optical spring frequency as a function of power and are in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. In addition, we show that the optical spring is able to keep the interferometer stable and locked without the use of external feedback.

Improved spring load restriction guidelines using mechanistic analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-07-01

This project used research to develop more effective criteria for placement and removal of spring load restrictions (SLR). Researchers investigated a method that uses a thawing index equation based on air temperatures to predict thawing events. Resul...

Perceived somatic and affective barriers for self-efficacy and physical activity.

PubMed

Warner, Lisa M; Wolff, Julia K; Spuling, Svenja M; Wurm, Susanne

2017-05-01

According to Bandura's social-cognitive theory, perceptions of somatic and affective barriers are sources of self-efficacy. This longitudinal study compares general indicators of health barriers with measures of perceived somatic and affective barriers to predict self-efficacy and accelerometer-assessed physical activity in a subsample of n = 153 (selected at random from N = 310) community-dwelling German older adults. Perceived somatic and affective barriers longitudinally predicted physical activity mediated by self-efficacy, whereas general health barriers did not. Perceived health barriers to physical activity might be more important than more objective health barriers for older adults' physical activity levels.

Show Us How: A School-Wide Programme for Reluctant Readers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maguiness, Colleen

Westerns Springs College in Auckland, New Zealand is an inner city coeducational secondary school of 670 multicultural and diverse students. Achievement test results in reading comprehension and vocabulary grouped students at the top and bottom of the scale. Reading was identified as a significant barrier to learning and in 1997 staff agreed to…

Addressing Barriers to Learning. Volume 9, Number 2. Spring 2004

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Mental Health in Schools at UCLA, 2004

2004-01-01

This issue of the quarterly newsletter of the Center for Mental Health in Schools includes the following features and regular segments: (1) Diversity and Professional Competence in Schools... a Mental Health Perspective; (2) Diversity Competence Relevant to Mental Health in Schools: Eliminating Disparities in School Practices; (3) Where it's…

Predict human body indentation lying on a spring mattress using a neural network approach.

PubMed

Zhong, Shilu; Shen, Liming; Zhou, Lijuan; Guan, Zhongwei

2014-08-01

This article presents a method to predict and assess the interaction between a human body and a spring mattress. A three-layer artificial neural network model was developed to simulate and predict an indentation curve of human spine, characterized with the depth of lumbar lordosis and four inclination angles: cervicothoracic, thoracolumbar, lumbosacral and the back-hip (β). By comparing the spinal indentation curves described by the optimal evaluation parameters (depth of lumbar lordosis, cervicothoracic, thoracolumbar and lumbosacral), a better design of five-zone spring mattresses was obtained for individuals to have an effective support to the main part of the body. Using such approach, an operating process was further introduced, in which appropriate stiffness proportions were proposed to design mattress for the normal body types of Chinese young women. Finally, case studies were undertaken, which show that the method developed is feasible and practical. © IMechE 2014.

Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change.

PubMed

Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

2006-12-22

Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these.

What to do on spring break? The role of predicted, on-line, and remembered experience in future choice.

PubMed

Wirtz, Derrick; Kruger, Justin; Napa Scollon, Christie; Diener, Ed

2003-09-01

When individuals choose future activities on the basis of their past experiences, what guides those choices? The present study compared students' predicted, on-line, and remembered spring-break experiences, as well as the influence of these factors on students' desire to take a similar vacation in the future. Predicted and remembered experiences were both more positive-and, paradoxically, more negative-than on-line experiences. Of key importance, path analyses revealed that remembered experience, but neither on-line nor anticipated experience, directly predicted the desire to repeat the experience. These results suggest that although on-line measures may be superior to retrospective measures for approximating objective experience, retrospective measures may be superior for predicting choice.

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

Comparison of Estimated Areas Contributing Recharge to Selected Springs in North-Central Florida by Using Multiple Ground-Water Flow Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W. Barclay; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Williams, Stanley A.; Motz, Louis H.; Sun, Qing

2004-01-01

Areas contributing recharge to springs are defined in this report as the land-surface area wherein water entering the ground-water system at the water table eventually discharges to a spring. These areas were delineated for Blue Spring, Silver Springs, Alexander Springs, and Silver Glen Springs in north-central Florida using four regional ground-water flow models and particle tracking. As expected, different models predicted different areas contributing recharge. In general, the differences were due to different hydrologic stresses, subsurface permeability properties, and boundary conditions that were used to calibrate each model, all of which are considered to be equally feasible because each model matched its respective calibration data reasonably well. To evaluate the agreement of the models and to summarize results, areas contributing recharge to springs from each model were combined into composite areas. During 1993-98, the composite areas contributing recharge to Blue Spring, Silver Springs, Alexander Springs, and Silver Glen Springs were about 130, 730, 110, and 120 square miles, respectively. The composite areas for all springs remained about the same when using projected 2020 ground-water withdrawals.

Conception, analyse et caracterisation des proprietes mecaniques de ressorts composites a renfort tresse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebdi, Oussama

High performance composites reinforced by woven or braided fabrics have several different applications in various fields such as in the aerospace, automobile and marine industry. This research project was carried out at the Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal in collaboration with an industrial sponsor, the company Composites Atlantic Ltd. Composite springs often represent an interesting alternative, given the reduction in weight that they allow with equal mechanical performance compared to metallic springs. Their good resistance to fatigue and corrosion bring additional benefits in several industrial applications. Moreover, the use of the composites increases safety by avoiding the risks of brutal rupture because of the low propagation velocity of cracks in this type of material. Lastly, in electrotechnics, another significant advantage comes into play because of the electrical insulation capability of composite springs. Few research results can be found on composite springs in the scientific literature. The first part of this thesis studies the problems connected with the design of composite springs. The results are promising, because it was confirmed that composite springs can be devised with the same mechanical performance in term of stiffness as metallic ones. Two solutions were found to replace the metallic springs of the suspension of a four wheel drive: the first spring was in carbon-epoxy, and the second one in glass-epoxy. In the second part, software was developed in order to devise a new approach to predict the mechanical properties of woven or braided composites. This work shows how an inverse method based on plate laminate theory allows creating, from experimental results on braided composites, a virtual basic ply that includes the effect of fiber architecture (undulation and braiding angle). Using this model, the properties of the composite can be predicted for any braid angle. The comparison with the experimental results shows a good correlation with numerical predictions. In third part, an experimental study on creep was conducted on composite plates manufactured with the same constitutive materials as the composite springs. Creep tests in three point bending were carried out with Q800 DMA machine. The results showed that creep behavior depends primarily on the polymer matrix. However, rigidity is a function of the fiber-matrix mixture. The braiding angle of 35° corresponds to a characteristic threshold for braided composites: beyond this value, rigidity falls in a creep test at a temperature higher than Tg. It represents also a critical angle in bending or in tensile tests. Above 35°, the failure mode of the composite goes from fragile (rupture of fibers) to a mixed mode, in which the polymer matrix comes also into play with fibers. A good stability was observed for the composites with a braiding angle lower than +/- 35° or higher than +/-60°. Long-term tests were also carried out for two braided composites at +/- 45° and +/- 55° in order to check the predictive model of the DMA. The shift factors obtained from the short and long term tests are roughly equal. This thesis has set the ground for the future development on industrial applications of composite springs. The design software predicts the mechanical effectiveness of helical composite springs. The software developed to predict the elastic properties of braided composites accelerates the preparation of characterization results for the design stage. This numerical tool could be generalized for other fiber architectures. It represents a practical tool for further investigations. Finally, the study on creep, although preliminary, provides a first evaluation of the life cycle of composite springs. It would be interesting to proceed now to the design of a first industrial application.

Frequencies and predictors of barriers to mental health service use: a longitudinal study of Hurricane Ike survivors.

PubMed

Lowe, Sarah R; Fink, David S; Norris, Fran H; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

The majority of disaster survivors suffering from psychological symptoms do not receive mental health services. Research on barriers to service use among disaster survivors is limited by a lack of longitudinal studies of representative samples and investigations of predictors of barriers. The purpose of this study was to address these limitations through analysis of a three-wave population-based study of Hurricane Ike survivors (N = 658). Frequencies of preference, outcome expectancy, resource, and stigma barriers among participants with unmet mental health needs were documented and logistic regression using a generalized estimating equations approach explored predisposing (e.g., age), illness-related (e.g., posttraumatic stress) and enabling (e.g., insurance coverage) factors as predictors of each type of barrier. Preference barriers were most frequently cited at each wave, whereas stigma barriers were least frequently cited. Older age and higher emotional support predicted preference barriers; being a parent of a child under 18-years old at the time of the hurricane, higher generalized anxiety, and lack of insurance predicted resource barriers; and higher posttraumatic stress predicted stigma barriers. These findings suggest that postdisaster practices targeting subpopulations most likely to have barriers to service use may be indicated.

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Science.gov Websites

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A new bead-spring model for simulation of semi-flexible macromolecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saadat, Amir; Khomami, Bamin

2016-11-01

A bead-spring model for semi-flexible macromolecules is developed to overcome the deficiencies of the current coarse-grained bead-spring models. Specifically, model improvements are achieved through incorporation of a bending potential. The new model is designed to accurately describe the correlation along the backbone of the chain, segmental length, and force-extension behavior of the macromolecule even at the limit of 1 Kuhn step per spring. The relaxation time of different Rouse modes is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the new model in predicting chain dynamics.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

On swinging spring chaotic oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldoshin, Gennady T.; Yakovlev, Sergey P.

2018-05-01

In this work, chaotic modes of Swinging spring oscillations, their appearing conditions and probable scenario of evolution are studied. Swinging spring two-dimensional potential has (under certain conditions) local maximum. It can lead to stochastic attractor appearing. The system instability reason is inner (auto-parametric) resonance with frequencies ratio 2:1, which allows us to conclude that attractor could evolve according to the period doubling scenario, which was predicted by Feigenbaum in 1978.

Lipid reserves of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) migrating across a large landscape are consistent with the "Spring Condition" hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, M.J.; Afton, A.D.

2009-01-01

The “spring condition” hypothesis (SCH) states that nutrition during spring migration affects survival, reproductive success, and, ultimately, population size of migratory birds. The North American population of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) has experienced a marked decline, apparently because of poor recruitment. An important prediction of the SCH is that female Lesser Scaup have low lipid reserves during spring migration. We previously reported that lipid reserves and body mass of females collected on migratory stopover areas in northwestern Minnesota in springs 2000–2001 were lower than those on the same areas in the 1980s and markedly lower than those collected at Pool 19 of the Mississippi River in 2000–2001, an important preceding stopover area. However, it was unclear whether these findings represented a site-specific result or a landscape-scale phenomenon. Accordingly, we examined lipid and body mass of 641 female Lesser Scaup migrating across seven eco-physiographic regions of Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota during springs 2003–2005. We found that lipids and body mass of females throughout the Upper Midwest were similar to or less than the low values documented in northwestern Minnesota in springs 2000–2001 and markedly lower than those of females at Pool 19 in springs 2000–2001. Accordingly, our results are consistent with a prediction of the SCH, because lipid and body mass of females are low throughout this large landscape, lower than at an important preceding stopover area, and lower than all historical values. Finally, our results suggest the potential for cross-seasonal influences of nutrition on recruitment and that a stronger management focus on spring migration habitats may be necessary for conservation and recovery of declining migratory birds, especially Lesser Scaup.

Numerical Study of Groundwater Flow and Salinity Distribution Cycling Controlled by Seawater/Freshwater Interaction in Karst Aquifer Using SEAWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Hu, B.

2017-12-01

The interest to predict seawater intrusion and salinity distribution in Woodville Karst Plain (WKP) has increased due to the huge challenge on quality of drinkable water and serious environmental problems. Seawater intrudes into the conduit system from submarine karst caves at Spring Creek Spring due to density difference and sea level rising, nowadays the low salinity has been detected at Wakulla Spring which is 18 km from coastal line. The groundwater discharge at two major springs and salinity distribution in this area is controlled by the seawater/freshwater interaction under different rainfall conditions: during low rainfall periods, seawater flow into the submarine spring through karst windows, then the salinity rising at the submarine spring leads to seawater further intrudes into conduit system; during high rainfall periods, seawater is pushed out by fresh water discharge at submarine spring. The previous numerical studies of WKP mainly focused on the density independent transport modeling and seawater/freshwater discharge at major karst springs, in this study, a SEAWAT model has been developed to fully investigate the salinity distribution in the WKP under repeating phases of low rainfall and high rainfall periods, the conduit system was simulated as porous media with high conductivity and porosity. The precipitation, salinity and discharge at springs were used to calibrate the model. The results showed that the salinity distribution in porous media and conduit system is controlled by the rainfall change, in general, the salinity distribution inland under low rainfall conditions is much higher and wider than the high rainfall conditions. The results propose a prediction on the environmental problem caused by seawater intrusion in karst coastal aquifer, in addition, provide a visual and scientific basis for future groundwater remediation.

Application of the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to Fishery Resource Issues in the Klamath River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Sharon G.; Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John

2010-01-01

At the request of two offices of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) located in Yreka and Arcata, Calif., we applied the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to analyze a variety of water management concerns associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing of the Klamath hydropower projects or with ongoing management of anadromous fish stocks in the mainstem Klamath River, Oregon and California. Requested SIAM analyses include predicted effects of reservoir withdrawal elevations, use of full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoirs to augment spring flows, and predicted spawning and juvenile outmigration timing of fall Chinook salmon. In an effort to further refine the analysis of spring flow effects on predicted fall Chinook production, additional SIAM analyses were performed for predicted response to spring flow release variability from Iron Gate Dam, high and low pulse flow releases, the predicted effects of operational constraints for both Upper Klamath Lake water surface elevations, and projected flow releases specified in the Klamath Project 2006 Operations Plan (April 10, 2006). Results of SIAM simulations to determine flow and water temperature relationships indicate that up to 4 degrees C of thermal variability can be attributed to flow variations, but the effect is seasonal. Much more of thermal variability can be attributed to air temperature variations, up to 6 degrees C. Reservoirs affect the annual thermal signature by delaying spring warming by about 3 weeks and fall cooling by about 2 weeks. Multi-level release outlets on Iron Gate Dam would have limited utility; however, if releases are small (700 cfs) and a near-surface and bottom-level outlet could be blended, then water temperature may be reduced by 2-4 degrees C for a 4-week period during September. Using the full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoir, although feasible, had undesirable ramifications such as earlier spring warming, loss of hydropower production, and inability to re-fill the reservoirs without causing shortages elsewhere in the system. Altering spawning and outmigration timing may be important management objectives for the salmon fishery, but difficult to implement. SIAM predicted benefits that might occur if water temperature was cooler in fall and spring emergence was advanced; however, model simulations were based on purely arbitrary thermal reductions. Spring flow variability did indicate that juvenile fall Chinook rearing habitat was the major biological 'bottleneck' for year class success. Rearing habitat is maximal in a range between 4,500 and 5,500 cfs below Iron Gate Dam. These flow levels are not typically provided by Klamath River system operations, except in very wet years. The incremental spring flow analysis provided insight into when and how long a pulse flow should occur to provide predicted fall Chinook salmon production increases. In general, March 15th - April 30th of any year was the period for pulse flows and 4000 cfs was the target flow release that provided near-optimal juvenile rearing habitat. Again, competition for water resources in the Klamath River Basin may make implementation of pulsed flows difficult.

Quantitative structure-activation barrier relationship modeling for Diels-Alder ligations utilizing quantum chemical structural descriptors.

PubMed

Nandi, Sisir; Monesi, Alessandro; Drgan, Viktor; Merzel, Franci; Novič, Marjana

2013-10-30

In the present study, we show the correlation of quantum chemical structural descriptors with the activation barriers of the Diels-Alder ligations. A set of 72 non-catalysed Diels-Alder reactions were subjected to quantitative structure-activation barrier relationship (QSABR) under the framework of theoretical quantum chemical descriptors calculated solely from the structures of diene and dienophile reactants. Experimental activation barrier data were obtained from literature. Descriptors were computed using Hartree-Fock theory using 6-31G(d) basis set as implemented in Gaussian 09 software. Variable selection and model development were carried out by stepwise multiple linear regression methodology. Predictive performance of the quantitative structure-activation barrier relationship (QSABR) model was assessed by training and test set concept and by calculating leave-one-out cross-validated Q2 and predictive R2 values. The QSABR model can explain and predict 86.5% and 80% of the variances, respectively, in the activation energy barrier training data. Alternatively, a neural network model based on back propagation of errors was developed to assess the nonlinearity of the sought correlations between theoretical descriptors and experimental reaction barriers. A reasonable predictability for the activation barrier of the test set reactions was obtained, which enabled an exploration and interpretation of the significant variables responsible for Diels-Alder interaction between dienes and dienophiles. Thus, studies in the direction of QSABR modelling that provide efficient and fast prediction of activation barriers of the Diels-Alder reactions turn out to be a meaningful alternative to transition state theory based computation.

Addressing Barriers to Learning. Volume 13, Number 2. Spring 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Mental Health in Schools at UCLA, 2008

2008-01-01

Concern about responding to behavior problems and promoting social and emotional learning are related and are embedded into the arenas we frame to encompass the content of student/learning supports. How these concerns are addressed is critical to the type of school and classroom climate that emerges and to student engagement and re-engagement in…

Math and science community college faculty: A culture apart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Jane

This is a quantitative, survey-based study of Iowa community college faculty members. The survey was administered in the spring of 2011 to all faculty members identified by their colleges as being employed full time. This study compares the demographics of math and science faculty members to faculty within the arts and sciences who do not teach math or science. Comparisons of how the two groups interact with students and what they identify as barriers to student success are included, as well as their attitudes about mentoring, encouraging students, and their roles in student recruitment and student retention. Highly correlated variables are grouped as factors and used in the construction of prediction models for faculty engagement in student recruitment and student retention efforts. A contrast in the cultures of the math/science faculty members as compared to the non-math/science faculty is considered for its impact on faculty engagement with students and those variables believed to support undergraduate student success.

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merkle, Jerod A.; Cross, Paul C.; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Cole, Eric K.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2018-01-01

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission.Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [Cervus Canadensis] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts.Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands.Synthesis and applications. Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

PubMed

Green, David M

2017-02-01

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of environmental and body temperatures as predictors of mating call parameters of spring peepers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, L.E.; Brown, J.R.

1977-01-01

Parameters of the mating call of spring peepers (Hyla crucifer) were best predicted by water temperature rather than air or body temperature. Thus, water temperature should most closely approach the true body temperature of the calling frogs.

Coupled thermomechanical behavior of graphene using the spring-based finite element approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgantzinos, S. K., E-mail: sgeor@mech.upatras.gr; Anifantis, N. K., E-mail: nanif@mech.upatras.gr; Giannopoulos, G. I., E-mail: ggiannopoulos@teiwest.gr

The prediction of the thermomechanical behavior of graphene using a new coupled thermomechanical spring-based finite element approach is the aim of this work. Graphene sheets are modeled in nanoscale according to their atomistic structure. Based on molecular theory, the potential energy is defined as a function of temperature, describing the interatomic interactions in different temperature environments. The force field is approached by suitable straight spring finite elements. Springs simulate the interatomic interactions and interconnect nodes located at the atomic positions. Their stiffness matrix is expressed as a function of temperature. By using appropriate boundary conditions, various different graphene configurations aremore » analyzed and their thermo-mechanical response is approached using conventional finite element procedures. A complete parametric study with respect to the geometric characteristics of graphene is performed, and the temperature dependency of the elastic material properties is finally predicted. Comparisons with available published works found in the literature demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.« less

Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: a phylogenetic meta-analysis.

PubMed

Usui, Takuji; Butchart, Stuart H M; Phillimore, Albert B

2017-03-01

There are wide reports of advances in the timing of spring migration of birds over time and in relation to rising temperatures, though phenological responses vary substantially within and among species. An understanding of the ecological, life-history and geographic variables that predict this intra- and interspecific variation can guide our projections of how populations and species are likely to respond to future climate change. Here, we conduct phylogenetic meta-analyses addressing slope estimates of the timing of avian spring migration regressed on (i) year and (ii) temperature, representing a total of 413 species across five continents. We take into account slope estimation error and examine phylogenetic, ecological and geographic predictors of intra- and interspecific variation. We confirm earlier findings that on average birds have significantly advanced their spring migration time by 2·1 days per decade and 1·2 days °C -1 . We find that over time and in response to warmer spring conditions, short-distance migrants have advanced spring migratory phenology by more than long-distance migrants. We also find that larger bodied species show greater advance over time compared to smaller bodied species. Our results did not reveal any evidence that interspecific variation in migration response is predictable on the basis of species' habitat or diet. We detected a substantial phylogenetic signal in migration time in response to both year and temperature, suggesting that some of the shifts in migratory phenological response to climate are predictable on the basis of phylogeny. However, we estimate high levels of species and spatial variance relative to phylogenetic variance, which is consistent with plasticity in response to climate evolving fairly rapidly and being more influenced by adaptation to current local climate than by common descent. On average, avian spring migration times have advanced over time and as spring has become warmer. While we are able to identify predictors that explain some of the true among-species variation in response, substantial intra- and interspecific variation in migratory response remains to be explained. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Investigation of membrane mechanics using spring networks: application to red-blood-cell modelling.

PubMed

Chen, Mingzhu; Boyle, Fergal J

2014-10-01

In recent years a number of red-blood-cell (RBC) models have been proposed using spring networks to represent the RBC membrane. Some results predicted by these models agree well with experimental measurements. However, the suitability of these membrane models has been questioned. The RBC membrane, like a continuum membrane, is mechanically isotropic throughout its surface, but the mechanical properties of a spring network vary on the network surface and change with deformation. In this work spring-network mechanics are investigated in large deformation for the first time via an assessment of the effect of network parameters, i.e. network mesh, spring type and surface constraint. It is found that a spring network is conditionally equivalent to a continuum membrane. In addition, spring networks are employed for RBC modelling to replicate the optical tweezers test. It is found that a spring network is sufficient for modelling the RBC membrane but strain-hardening springs are required. Moreover, the deformation profile of a spring network is presented for the first time via the degree of shear. It is found that spring-network deformation approaches continuous as the mesh density increases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Membrane Transport across Polarized Epithelia.

PubMed

Garcia-Castillo, Maria Daniela; Chinnapen, Daniel J-F; Lencer, Wayne I

2017-09-01

Polarized epithelial cells line diverse surfaces throughout the body forming selective barriers between the external environment and the internal milieu. To cross these epithelial barriers, large solutes and other cargoes must undergo transcytosis, an endocytic pathway unique to polarized cell types, and significant for the development of cell polarity, uptake of viral and bacterial pathogens, transepithelial signaling, and immunoglobulin transport. Here, we review recent advances in our knowledge of the transcytotic pathway for proteins and lipids. We also discuss briefly the promise of harnessing the molecules that undergo transcytosis as vehicles for clinical applications in drug delivery. Copyright © 2017 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

Hydrologic behavior of two engineered barriers following extreme wetting.

PubMed

Porro, I

2001-01-01

Many engineered barriers are expected to function for hundreds of years or longer. Over the course of time, it is likely that some barriers will experience infiltration to the point of breakthrough. This study compares the recovery from breakthrough of two storage-evapotranspiration type engineered barriers. Replicates of test plots comprising thick soil and capillary-biobarrier covers were wetted to breakthrough in 1997. Test plots were kept cleared of vegetation to maximize hydrologic stress during recovery. Following cessation of drainage resulting from the wetting irrigations, water storage levels in all plots were at elevated levels compared with pre-irrigation levels. As a result, infiltration of melting snow during the subsequent spring overloaded the storage capacity and produced drainage in all plots. Relatively rapid melting of accumulated snowfall produced the most significant infiltration events each year during the study. Capillary barriers yielded less total drainage than thick soil barriers. By limiting drainage, capillary barriers increased water storage in the upper portions of the test plots, which led to increased evaporation from the capillary barrier plots compared with thick soil plots. Increased evaporation in the capillary barrier plots allowed more water to infiltrate in the second season following the wetting tests without triggering drainage. All thick soil plots again yielded drainage in the second season. Within two years of intentionally induced breakthrough, evaporation alone (without transpiration) restored the capability of the capillary barrier covers to function as intended, although water storage in these covers remained at elevated levels.

Predicting the continuum between corridors and barriers to animal movements using Step Selection Functions and Randomized Shortest Paths.

PubMed

Panzacchi, Manuela; Van Moorter, Bram; Strand, Olav; Saerens, Marco; Kivimäki, Ilkka; St Clair, Colleen C; Herfindal, Ivar; Boitani, Luigi

2016-01-01

The loss, fragmentation and degradation of habitat everywhere on Earth prompts increasing attention to identifying landscape features that support animal movement (corridors) or impedes it (barriers). Most algorithms used to predict corridors assume that animals move through preferred habitat either optimally (e.g. least cost path) or as random walkers (e.g. current models), but neither extreme is realistic. We propose that corridors and barriers are two sides of the same coin and that animals experience landscapes as spatiotemporally dynamic corridor-barrier continua connecting (separating) functional areas where individuals fulfil specific ecological processes. Based on this conceptual framework, we propose a novel methodological approach that uses high-resolution individual-based movement data to predict corridor-barrier continua with increased realism. Our approach consists of two innovations. First, we use step selection functions (SSF) to predict friction maps quantifying corridor-barrier continua for tactical steps between consecutive locations. Secondly, we introduce to movement ecology the randomized shortest path algorithm (RSP) which operates on friction maps to predict the corridor-barrier continuum for strategic movements between functional areas. By modulating the parameter Ѳ, which controls the trade-off between exploration and optimal exploitation of the environment, RSP bridges the gap between algorithms assuming optimal movements (when Ѳ approaches infinity, RSP is equivalent to LCP) or random walk (when Ѳ → 0, RSP → current models). Using this approach, we identify migration corridors for GPS-monitored wild reindeer (Rangifer t. tarandus) in Norway. We demonstrate that reindeer movement is best predicted by an intermediate value of Ѳ, indicative of a movement trade-off between optimization and exploration. Model calibration allows identification of a corridor-barrier continuum that closely fits empirical data and demonstrates that RSP outperforms models that assume either optimality or random walk. The proposed approach models the multiscale cognitive maps by which animals likely navigate real landscapes and generalizes the most common algorithms for identifying corridors. Because suboptimal, but non-random, movement strategies are likely widespread, our approach has the potential to predict more realistic corridor-barrier continua for a wide range of species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, John T.; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.

2015-04-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric convection in the tropical Pacific, and modulates global weather and climate. The phase of ENSO influences United States (US) temperature and precipitation and has long been hypothesized to influence severe thunderstorm occurrence over the US. However, limitations of the severe thunderstorm observational record, combined with large year-to-year variability, have made it difficult to demonstrate an ENSO influence during the peak spring season. Here we use environmental indices that are correlated with tornado and hail activity, and show that ENSO modulates tornado and hail occurrence during the winter and spring by altering the large-scale environment. We show that fewer tornadoes and hail events occur over the central US during El Niño and conversely more occur during La Niña conditions. Moreover, winter ENSO conditions often persist into early spring, and consequently the winter ENSO state can be used to predict changes in tornado and hail frequency during the following spring. Combined with our current ability to predict ENSO several months in advance, our findings provide a basis for long-range seasonal prediction of severe thunderstorm activity.

Microbiology and geochemistry of Little Hot Creek, a hot spring environment in the Long Valley Caldera.

PubMed

Vick, T J; Dodsworth, J A; Costa, K C; Shock, E L; Hedlund, B P

2010-03-01

A culture-independent community census was combined with chemical and thermodynamic analyses of three springs located within the Long Valley Caldera, Little Hot Creek (LHC) 1, 3, and 4. All three springs were approximately 80 degrees C, circumneutral, apparently anaerobic and had similar water chemistries. 16S rRNA gene libraries constructed from DNA isolated from spring sediment revealed moderately diverse but highly novel microbial communities. Over half of the phylotypes could not be grouped into known taxonomic classes. Bacterial libraries from LHC1 and LHC3 were predominantly species within the phyla Aquificae and Thermodesulfobacteria, while those from LHC4 were dominated by candidate phyla, including OP1 and OP9. Archaeal libraries from LHC3 contained large numbers of Archaeoglobales and Desulfurococcales, while LHC1 and LHC4 were dominated by Crenarchaeota unaffiliated with known orders. The heterogeneity in microbial populations could not easily be attributed to measurable differences in water chemistry, but may be determined by availability of trace amounts of oxygen to the spring sediments. Thermodynamic modeling predicted the most favorable reactions to be sulfur and nitrate respirations, yielding 40-70 kJ mol(-1) e(-) transferred; however, levels of oxygen at or below our detection limit could result in aerobic respirations yielding up to 100 kJ mol(-1) e(-) transferred. Important electron donors are predicted to be H(2), H(2)S, S(0), Fe(2+) and CH(4), all of which yield similar energies when coupled to a given electron acceptor. The results indicate that springs associated with the Long Valley Caldera contain microbial populations that show some similarities both to springs in Yellowstone and springs in the Great Basin.

Efficacy of granular deltamethrin against Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidade) nymphs.

PubMed

Schulze, T L; Jordan, R A; Hung, R W; Taylor, R C; Markowski, D; Chomsky, M S

2001-03-01

A single barrier application of granular deltamethrin to the woodland edges of a forested residential community in late spring significantly reduced the abundance of Ixodes scapularis Say nymphs. The application also suppressed the population of Amblyomma americanum (L.) nymphs, which recently became established in the study area. The efficacy of deltamethrin is compared with other commonly used acaricides.

Road crossings as barriers to small-stream fish movement

Treesearch

Melvin L. Warren; Mitzi G. Pardew

1998-01-01

The authors used mark-recapture techniques to examine the effects of four types of road crossings on fish movement during spring base flows and summer low flows in small streams of the Ouachita Mountains, west-central Arkansas. The authors assessed movement for 21 fish species in seven families through culvert, slab, open-box, and ford crossings and through natural...

Prediction of Summer Extreme Precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Ning, L.; Liu, J.; Yan, M.; Sun, W.

2017-12-01

Abstract: Summer extreme precipitation (SEP) often causes severe landslide, debris flow and floods over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MLYRB), so skillful prediction of the SEP is critical to the future climate adaptions and mitigations. In this work, the characteristic region over the MLYRB (27°N-32°N,108°1-118°E) is defined by the spatial mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) of SEP over the China from 1961 to 2014. A physics-based empirical model (PEM) of SEP predictions is built with two preceding predictors with significant physical influences on the SEP over the MLYRB. The first predictor is the spring sea surface temperature (SST) over the Northern Indian Ocean (20°S-20°N,50°E-95°E), and the second predictor is the spring sea surface pressure (SLP) over the Aleutian Island (50°N-70°N,160°E-160°W). Analyses of physical mechanism show that when the spring SST over the Northern Indian Ocean is higher, the South Asian High (SAH) extends to the east and the western Pacific sub-tropical high (WPSH) extends to the west, therefore, the generated secondary circulation induces anomalous upward motions and more water vapor transportation to the MLYRB, resulting more SEP. Meanwhile, when the spring SLP over the Aleutian Island is lower, the also WPSH extends to the west, which leads to a negative omega anomaly centered the MLYRB and more water vapor transportation to the MLYRB, resulting in more SEP. The regression model is built using the data from a training period from 1961 to 1999 with correlation coefficient skill of 0.57 (p<0.01) for prediction of SEP in 1961-1999. The independent forecast of the PEM shows that it is skillful in SEP prediction with the correlation coefficient between observed SEP and model-simulated SEP over the validation period 2000-2014 is 0.51 (p<0.05). This finding shows that the preceding spring SST and SLP can provide useful information for prediction of SEP, and the methodology proposed here can be applied to a wide range of climate prediction studies. The future improvements are also discussed.

Field Testing of an Unvented Roof with Fibrous Insulation, Tiles and Vapor Diffusion Venting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ueno, K.; Lstiburek, J. W.

This research is a test implementation of an unvented tile roof assembly in a hot-humid climate (Orlando, FL; Zone 2A), insulated with air permeable insulation (netted and blown fiberglass). Given the localized moisture accumulation and failures seen in previous unvented roof field work, it was theorized that a 'diffusion vent' (water vapor open, but air barrier 'closed') at the highest points in the roof assembly might allow for the wintertime release of moisture, to safe levels. The 'diffusion vent' is an open slot at the ridge and hips, covered with a water-resistant but vapor open (500+ perm) air barrier membrane.more » As a control comparison, one portion of the roof was constructed as a typical unvented roof (self-adhered membrane at ridge). The data collected to date indicate that the diffusion vent roof shows greater moisture safety than the conventional, unvented roof design. The unvented roof had extended winter periods of 95-100% RH, and wafer (wood surrogate RH sensor) measurements indicating possible condensation; high moisture levels were concentrated at the roof ridge. In contrast, the diffusion vent roofs had drier conditions, with most peak MCs (sheathing) below 20%. In the spring, as outdoor temperatures warmed, all roofs dried well into the safe range (10% MC or less). Some roof-wall interfaces showed moderately high MCs; this might be due to moisture accumulation at the highest point in the lower attic, and/or shading of the roof by the adjacent second story. Monitoring will be continued at least through spring 2016 (another winter and spring).« less

Building America Case Study: Field Testing an Unvented Roof with Fibrous Insulation and Tiles, Orlando, Florida

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

This research is a test implementation of an unvented tile roof assembly in a hot-humid climate (Orlando, FL; Zone 2A), insulated with air permeable insulation (netted and blown fiberglass). Given the localized moisture accumulation and failures seen in previous unvented roof field work, it was theorized that a 'diffusion vent' (water vapor open, but air barrier 'closed') at the highest points in the roof assembly might allow for the wintertime release of moisture, to safe levels. The 'diffusion vent' is an open slot at the ridge and hips, covered with a water-resistant but vapor open (500+ perm) air barrier membrane.more » As a control comparison, one portion of the roof was constructed as a typical unvented roof (self-adhered membrane at ridge). The data collected to date indicate that the diffusion vent roof shows greater moisture safety than the conventional, unvented roof design. The unvented roof had extended winter periods of 95-100% RH, and wafer (wood surrogate RH sensor) measurements indicating possible condensation; high moisture levels were concentrated at the roof ridge. In contrast, the diffusion vent roofs had drier conditions, with most peak MCs (sheathing) below 20%. In the spring, as outdoor temperatures warmed, all roofs dried well into the safe range (10% MC or less). Some roof-wall interfaces showed moderately high MCs; this might be due to moisture accumulation at the highest point in the lower attic, and/or shading of the roof by the adjacent second story. Monitoring will be continued at least through spring 2016 (another winter and spring).« less

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

Semester and Event-Specific Motives for Alcohol Use During Spring Break: Associated Protective Strategies and Negative Consequences

PubMed Central

Patrick, Megan E.; Lewis, Melissa A.; Lee, Christine M.; Maggs, Jennifer L.

2012-01-01

Motives surrounding alcohol use behavior are important for understanding college student drinking. However, no previous research has addressed how motives for and against drinking during specific events associated with high-risk drinking, such as Spring Break, may differ from motives for and against drinking during the regular semester. Further, we examine the extent to which semester and Spring Break motives are associated with alcohol use, protective behavioral strategies (PBS), and consequences. Participants were college students (N = 261; 55% women) who provided data both immediately prior to (Wave 1) and after (Wave 2) Spring Break. Fun/Social motives for drinking were greater for Spring Break, and Driving motives against drinking were lower for Spring Break, compared to semester drinking. Relax and Image motives for drinking and Physical/Behavioral motives for not drinking during Spring Break did not differ from semester motives. Spring Break motives for and against drinking were associated with total drinks, maximum drinks, PBS, and experienced negative consequences during Spring Break. Students’ specific motives regarding drinking during Spring Break predict high-risk drinking and may be utilized in creating salient event-specific interventions. PMID:23384451

Using Seasonal Forecasting Data for Vessel Routing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Ray; Kirtman, Ben

2017-04-01

We present an assessment of seasonal forecasting of surface wind speed, significant wave height and ocean surface current speed in the North Pacific for potential use of vessel routing from Singapore to San Diego. WaveWatchIII is forced with surface winds and ocean surface currents from the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) retrospective forecasts for the period of 1982-2015. Several lead time forecasts are used from zero months to six months resulting in 2,720 model years, ensuring the findings from this study are robust. July surface wind speed and significant wave height can be skillfully forecast with a one month lead time, with the western North Pacific being the most predictable region. Beyond May initial conditions (lead time of two months) the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring predictability barrier limits skill of significant wave height but there is skill for surface wind speed with January initial conditions (lead time of six months). In a separate study of vessel routing between Norfolk, Virginia and Gibraltar we demonstrate the benefit of a multimodel approach using the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). In collaboration with Charles River Analytics an all-encompassing forecast is presented by using machine learning on the various ensembles which can be using used for industry applications.

Sensitivity of El Niño intensity and timing to preceding subsurface heat magnitude

PubMed Central

Ballester, Joan; Petrova, Desislava; Bordoni, Simona; Ben Cash; García-Díez, Markel; Rodó, Xavier

2016-01-01

Despite extensive ongoing efforts on improving the long-term prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the predictability in state-of-the-art operational schemes remains limited by factors such as the spring barrier and the influence of atmospheric winds. Recent research suggests that the 2014/15 El Niño (EN) event was stalled as a result of an unusually strong basin-wide easterly wind burst in June, which led to the discharge of a large fraction of the subsurface ocean heat. Here we use observational records and numerical experiments to explore the sensitivity of EN to the magnitude of the heat buildup occurring in the ocean subsurface 21 months in advance. Our simulations suggest that a large increase in heat content during this phase can lead to basin-wide uniform warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific the winter before the occurrence of a very strong EN event. In our model configuration, the system compensates any initial decrease in heat content and naturally evolves towards a new recharge, resulting in a delay of up to one year in the occurrence of an EN event. Both scenarios substantiate the non-linear dependency between the intensity of the subsurface heat buildup and the magnitude and timing of subsequent EN episodes. PMID:27808279

Sensitivity of El Niño intensity and timing to preceding subsurface heat magnitude.

PubMed

Ballester, Joan; Petrova, Desislava; Bordoni, Simona; Ben Cash; García-Díez, Markel; Rodó, Xavier

2016-11-03

Despite extensive ongoing efforts on improving the long-term prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the predictability in state-of-the-art operational schemes remains limited by factors such as the spring barrier and the influence of atmospheric winds. Recent research suggests that the 2014/15 El Niño (EN) event was stalled as a result of an unusually strong basin-wide easterly wind burst in June, which led to the discharge of a large fraction of the subsurface ocean heat. Here we use observational records and numerical experiments to explore the sensitivity of EN to the magnitude of the heat buildup occurring in the ocean subsurface 21 months in advance. Our simulations suggest that a large increase in heat content during this phase can lead to basin-wide uniform warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific the winter before the occurrence of a very strong EN event. In our model configuration, the system compensates any initial decrease in heat content and naturally evolves towards a new recharge, resulting in a delay of up to one year in the occurrence of an EN event. Both scenarios substantiate the non-linear dependency between the intensity of the subsurface heat buildup and the magnitude and timing of subsequent EN episodes.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-03-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Spring Constants for Stacks of Curved Leaves of Pyrolytic Boron Nitride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaforey, M. L.; Deeb, C. W.; Matthiesen, D. H.

1999-01-01

Stacks of curved leaves of pyrolytic boron nitride (PBN) were deflected and the force versus deflection data was recorded. From this data, the spring constant for a given spring geometry (radius of curvature of a leaf, width of a leaf, thickness of a leaf, and number of leaves in the stack) was determined. These experiments were performed at room temperature, 500 C and 1000 C. However, temperature was not found to affect the spring constant. The measured values were generally within one order of magnitude of predictions made using a previously derived equation for a simply supported cylindrical section with a line force at the center.

Finite element fatigue analysis of rectangular clutch spring of automatic slack adjuster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chen-jie; Luo, Zai; Hu, Xiao-feng; Jiang, Wen-song

2015-02-01

The failure of rectangular clutch spring of automatic slack adjuster directly affects the work of automatic slack adjuster. We establish the structural mechanics model of automatic slack adjuster rectangular clutch spring based on its working principle and mechanical structure. In addition, we upload such structural mechanics model to ANSYS Workbench FEA system to predict the fatigue life of rectangular clutch spring. FEA results show that the fatigue life of rectangular clutch spring is 2.0403×105 cycle under the effect of braking loads. In the meantime, fatigue tests of 20 automatic slack adjusters are carried out on the fatigue test bench to verify the conclusion of the structural mechanics model. The experimental results show that the mean fatigue life of rectangular clutch spring is 1.9101×105, which meets the results based on the finite element analysis using ANSYS Workbench FEA system.

Prediction of Process-Induced Distortions in L-Shaped Composite Profiles Using Path-Dependent Constitutive Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Anxin; Li, Shuxin; Wang, Jihui; Ni, Aiqing; Sun, Liangliang; Chang, Lei

2016-10-01

In this paper, the corner spring-in angles of AS4/8552 L-shaped composite profiles with different thicknesses are predicted using path-dependent constitutive law with the consideration of material properties variation due to phase change during curing. The prediction accuracy mainly depends on the properties in the rubbery and glassy states obtained by homogenization method rather than experimental measurements. Both analytical and finite element (FE) homogenization methods are applied to predict the overall properties of AS4/8552 composite. The effect of fiber volume fraction on the properties is investigated for both rubbery and glassy states using both methods. And the predicted results are compared with experimental measurements for the glassy state. Good agreement is achieved between the predicted results and available experimental data, showing the reliability of the homogenization method. Furthermore, the corner spring-in angles of L-shaped composite profiles are measured experimentally and the reliability of path-dependent constitutive law is validated as well as the properties prediction by FE homogenization method.

Predicting performance and performance satisfaction: mindfulness and beliefs about the ability to deal with social barriers in sport.

PubMed

Blecharz, Jan; Luszczynska, Aleksandra; Scholz, Urte; Schwarzer, Ralf; Siekanska, Malgorzata; Cieslak, Roman

2014-05-01

This research investigates the role of beliefs about the ability to deal with specific social barriers and its relationships to mindfulness, football performance, and satisfaction with one's own and team performance. Study 1 aimed at eliciting these social barriers. Study 2 tested (i) whether self-efficacy referring to social barriers would predict performance over and above task-related self-efficacy and collective efficacy and (ii) the mediating role of self-efficacy to overcome social barriers in the relationship between mindfulness and performance. Participants were football (soccer) players aged 16-21 years (Study 1: N=30; Study 2: N=101, longitudinal sample: n=88). Study 1 resulted in eliciting 82 social barriers referring to team, peer leadership, and coaches. Study 2 showed that task-related self-efficacy and collective efficacy explained performance satisfaction at seven-month follow-up, whereas self-efficacy referring to social barriers explained shooting performance at seven-month follow-up. Indirect associations between mindfulness and performance were found with three types of self-efficacy referring to social barriers, operating as parallel mediators. Results provide evidence for the role of beliefs about the ability to cope with social barriers and show a complex interplay between different types of self-efficacy and collective efficacy in predicting team sport performance.

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News address. NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5200 Auth Road Camp Springs, Maryland 20746 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News bookmarks with the new address. NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5200 Auth Road Camp Springs, Maryland 20746 Page Author: Climate Prediction

Characterizing hydrochemical properties of springs in Taiwan based on their geological origins.

PubMed

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Chen, Jui-Sheng; Lin, Yun-Bin; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2012-01-01

This study was performed to characterize hydrochemical properties of springs based on their geological origins in Taiwan. Stepwise discriminant analysis (DA) was used to establish a linear classification model of springs using hydrochemical parameters. Two hydrochemical datasets-ion concentrations and relative proportions of equivalents per liter of major ions-were included to perform prediction of the geological origins of springs. Analyzed results reveal that DA using relative proportions of equivalents per liter of major ions yields a 95.6% right assignation, which is superior to DA using ion concentrations. This result indicates that relative proportions of equivalents of major hydrochemical parameters in spring water are more highly associated with the geological origins than ion concentrations do. Low percentages of Na(+) equivalents are common properties of springs emerging from acid-sulfate and neutral-sulfate igneous rock. Springs emerging from metamorphic rock show low percentages of Cl( - ) equivalents and high percentages of HCO[Formula: see text] equivalents, and springs emerging from sedimentary rock exhibit high Cl( - )/SO(2-)(4) ratios.

Anomalously Soft Non-Euclidean Springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Ido; Sharon, Eran

2016-01-01

In this work we study the mechanical properties of a frustrated elastic ribbon spring—the non-Euclidean minimal spring. This spring belongs to the family of non-Euclidean plates: it has no spontaneous curvature, but its lateral intrinsic geometry is described by a non-Euclidean reference metric. The reference metric of the minimal spring is hyperbolic, and can be embedded as a minimal surface. We argue that the existence of a continuous set of such isometric minimal surfaces with different extensions leads to a complete degeneracy of the bulk elastic energy of the minimal spring under elongation. This degeneracy is removed only by boundary layer effects. As a result, the mechanical properties of the minimal spring are unusual: the spring is ultrasoft with a rigidity that depends on the thickness t as t7 /2 and does not explicitly depend on the ribbon's width. Moreover, we show that as the ribbon is widened, the rigidity may even decrease. These predictions are confirmed by a numerical study of a constrained spring. This work is the first to address the unusual mechanical properties of constrained non-Euclidean elastic objects.

"It's good for me": physical activity in older adults with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Leutwyler, Heather; Hubbard, Erin M; Slater, Margaret; Jeste, Dilip V

2014-01-01

Physical activity (PA) interventions to improve the physical function of older adults with schizophrenia are necessary but not available. Older adults with schizophrenia may have unique barriers and facilitators to PA. The purpose of this study was to describe the perceptions of older adults with schizophrenia about barriers and facilitators to engage in physical activities that promote physical function. We conducted qualitative interviews with 16 older adults with schizophrenia. Data were collected and analyzed with grounded theory methodology. Participants expressed interest in becoming more physically active for a variety of perceived benefits including psychiatric symptom management and maintenance of basic function. Key barriers and facilitators to PA emerged in five broad categories: Mental Health, No longer a spring chicken, Pride and Sense of Well-being, Comfort and Safety, and Belonging. Interventions in this population should address negative attitudes towards aging and promote routine physical activities that enhance well-being and companionship.

Spring assisted cranioplasty: A patient specific computational model.

PubMed

Borghi, Alessandro; Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Rodgers, Will; James, Gregory; Hayward, Richard; Dunaway, David; Jeelani, Owase; Schievano, Silvia

2018-03-01

Implantation of spring-like distractors in the treatment of sagittal craniosynostosis is a novel technique that has proven functionally and aesthetically effective in correcting skull deformities; however, final shape outcomes remain moderately unpredictable due to an incomplete understanding of the skull-distractor interaction. The aim of this study was to create a patient specific computational model of spring assisted cranioplasty (SAC) that can help predict the individual overall final head shape. Pre-operative computed tomography images of a SAC patient were processed to extract a 3D model of the infant skull anatomy and simulate spring implantation. The distractors were modeled based on mechanical experimental data. Viscoelastic bone properties from the literature were tuned using the specific patient procedural information recorded during surgery and from x-ray measurements at follow-up. The model accurately captured spring expansion on-table (within 9% of the measured values), as well as at first and second follow-ups (within 8% of the measured values). Comparison between immediate post-operative 3D head scanning and numerical results for this patient proved that the model could successfully predict the final overall head shape. This preliminary work showed the potential application of computational modeling to study SAC, to support pre-operative planning and guide novel distractor design. Copyright © 2018 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

1980-01-01

The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

Forest disturbance type differentially affects seasonal moose forage

Treesearch

R.A. Lautenschlager; Hewlette S. Crawford; Martin R. Stokes; Timothy L. Stone

1997-01-01

We examined the effects of forest disturbance on forage availability, moose (Alces alces) seasonal forage selection, and predicted in vivo digestibility in eastern Maine. Wet-mass estimates and dry-mass conversions of species consumed by 3 tamed moose were made throughout the year (late winter, early spring, late spring, summer, fall, early winter)...

'Snorkel' lice barrier technology reduced two co- occurring parasites, the salmon louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) and the amoebic gill disease causing agent (Neoparamoeba perurans), in commercial salmon sea-cages.

PubMed

Wright, D W; Stien, L H; Dempster, T; Vågseth, T; Nola, V; Fosseidengen, J-E; Oppedal, F

2017-05-01

Diverse chemical-free parasite controls are gaining status in Atlantic salmon sea-cage farming. Yet, the intricacies of their use at commercial scale, including effects on co-occurring parasites, are seldom reported. A new salmon lice prevention method involves installing a deep net roof and 'snorkel' lice barrier in cages to shelter salmon from free-living infective larvae which concentrate at shallow depths, and allows salmon to jump and re- inflate their buoyancy-regulating swim bladder by swallowing air. We document use of snorkel cages (10m deep barrier) in commercial farms, where their effects on salmon lice levels, amoebic gill disease (AGD)-related gill scores, the cage environment, fish welfare and farm management practices were compared to standard cages. During an autumn-winter study involving only snorkel cages, high AGD-related gill scores were observed to decline when freshwater was pumped into snorkels, creating a freshwater surface layer for salmon to enter for self-treatment. In a spring-summer study incorporating snorkel and standard cages, snorkel cages were found to reduce new lice infestations by 84%. The deployment of snorkels and intermittent oxygen depletion detected within them in the spring-summer study did not alter fish welfare parameters. Overall, the results suggest snorkel technology has a place in the toolkit of commercial salmon sea-cage farmers co-managing salmon lice and amoebic gill disease outbreaks - two principal parasite issues facing the industry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecology of free-living nematodes from the continental shelf of the central great barrier reef province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietjen, John H.

1991-05-01

Nematode assemblages from five sites on the continental shelf of the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) along a transect ranging from inshore muddy quartz to offshore carbonate sands were examined in austral spring (October 1987) and summer (January 1988). Assemblages at all sites were characterized by very even distributions (low dominance) of families, genera and species. Average per cent abundances of the dominant family (Chromadoridae), genus ( Theristus) and species ( Spilophorella paradoxa), respectively, were 16, 10 and 8% of the total number of specimens identified. The diversity of species ( H' = 3·35-4·08) from the GBR was higher than that normally calculated for shelf nematode assemblages; species richness (SR = 10·64-16·67) and evenness (J' = 0·82-0·91) values approximate those characteristic of deep-sea nematode assemblages, suggesting equitable exploitation of the interstitial environment on the GBR shelf by many species. This was also indicated by a nodal analysis of the 22 dominant species, which exhibited no strong preference for any particular sediment or site. Non-selective deposit and epistrate feeders were the most abundant trophic types among the nematodes. The abundance of non-selective deposit feeders was significantly greater in the summer than spring assemblages, accompanying differences also observed in the per cent composition of several species. Shortterm fluctuations in species composition and high species diversity of nematodes on the central Great Barrier Reef shelf may be the result of high sediment heterogeneity (caused by cyclones and frequent prawn trawling), a rich bacterial flora, continuous warm temperatures and low macroinfaunal abundance.

A Linear Stochastic Dynamical Model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, C. J.; Battisti, D. S.

2001-02-01

In this study the behavior of a linear, intermediate model of ENSO is examined under stochastic forcing. The model was developed in a companion paper (Part I) and is derived from the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model. Four variants of the model are used whose stabilities range from slightly damped to moderately damped. Each model is run as a simulation while being perturbed by noise that is uncorrelated (white) in space and time. The statistics of the model output show the moderately damped models to be more realistic than the slightly damped models. The moderately damped models have power spectra that are quantitatively quite similar to observations, and a seasonal pattern of variance that is qualitatively similar to observations. All models produce ENSOs that are phase locked to the annual cycle, and all display the `spring barrier' characteristic in their autocorrelation patterns, though in the models this `barrier' occurs during the summer and is less intense than in the observations (inclusion of nonlinear effects is shown to partially remedy this deficiency). The more realistic models also show a decadal variability in the lagged autocorrelation pattern that is qualitatively similar to observations.Analysis of the models shows that the greatest part of the variability comes from perturbations that project onto the first singular vector, which then grow rapidly into the ENSO mode. Essentially, the model output represents many instances of the ENSO mode, with random phase and amplitude, stimulated by the noise through the optimal transient growth of the singular vectors.The limit of predictability for each model is calculated and it is shown that the more realistic (moderately damped) models have worse potential predictability (9-15 months) than the deterministic chaotic models that have been studied widely in the literature. The predictability limits are strongly correlated with the stability of the models' ENSO mode-the more highly damped models having much shorter limits of predictability. A comparison of the two most realistic models shows that even though these models have similar statistics, they have very different predictability limits. The models have a strong seasonal dependence to their predictability limits.The results of this study (with the companion paper) suggest that the linear, stable dynamical model of ENSO is indeed a plausible hypothesis for the observed ENSO. With very reasonable levels of stochastic forcing, the model produces realistic levels of variance, has a realistic spectrum, and qualitatively reproduces the observed seasonal pattern of variance, the autocorrelation pattern, and the ENSO-like decadal variability.

Numerical modeling of perched water under Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinds, J.J.; Ge, S.; Fridrich, C.J.

1999-01-01

The presence of perched water near the potential high-level nuclear waste repository area at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has important implications for waste isolation. Perched water occurs because of sharp contrasts in rock properties, in particular between the strongly fractured repository host rock (the Topopah Spring welded tuff) and the immediately underlying vitrophyric (glassy) subunit, in which fractures are sealed by clays that were formed by alteration of the volcanic glass. The vitrophyre acts as a vertical barrier to unsaturated flow throughout much of the potential repository area. Geochemical analyses (Yang et al. 1996) indicate that perched water is relatively young, perhaps younger than 10,000 years. Given the low permeability of the rock matrix, fractures and perhaps fault zones must play a crucial role in unsaturated flow. The geologic setting of the major perched water bodies under Yucca Mountain suggests that faults commonly form barriers to lateral flow at the level of the repository horizon, but may also form important pathways for vertical infiltration from the repository horizon down to the water table. Using the numerical code UNSAT2, two factors believed to influence the perched water system at Yucca Mountain, climate and fault-zone permeability, are explored. The two-dimensional model predicts that the volume of water held within the perched water system may greatly increase under wetter climatic conditions, and that perched water bodies may drain to the water table along fault zones. Modeling results also show fault flow to be significantly attenuated in the Paintbrush Tuff non-welded hydrogeologic unit.

Comparison of spring measures of length, weight, and condition factor for predicting metamorphosis in two populations of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) larvae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henson, Mary P.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Adams, Jean V.

2003-01-01

The ability to predict when sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) will metamorphose from the larval phase to the parasitic phase is essential to the operation of the sea lamprey control program. During the spring of 1994, two populations of sea lamprey larvae from two rivers were captured, measured, weighed, implanted with coded wire tags, and returned to the same sites in the streams from which they were taken. Sea lampreys were recovered in the fall, after metamorphosis would have occurred, and checked for the presence of a tag. When the spring data were compared to the fall data it was found that the minimum requirements (length ≥ 120 mm, weight ≥ 3 g, and condition factor ≥ 1.50) suggested for metamorphosis did define a pool of larvae capable of metamorphosing. However, logistic regressions that relate the probability of metamorphosis to size are necessary to predict metamorphosis in a population. The data indicated, based on cross-validation, that weight measurements alone predicted metamorphosis with greater precision than length or condition factor in both the Marengo and Amnicon rivers. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, weight alone was a better predictor in the Amnicon River, but length and condition factor combined predicted metamorphosis better in the Marengo River. There would be no additional cost if weight alone were used instead of length. However, if length and weight were measured the gain in predictive power would not be enough to justify the additional cost.

Problems with the application of hydrogeological science to regulation of Australian mining projects: Carmichael Mine and Doongmabulla Springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currell, Matthew J.; Werner, Adrian D.; McGrath, Chris; Webb, John A.; Berkman, Michael

2017-05-01

Understanding and managing impacts from mining on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) and other groundwater users requires development of defensible science supported by adequate field data. This usually leads to the creation of predictive models and analysis of the likely impacts of mining and their accompanying uncertainties. The identification, monitoring and management of impacts on GDEs are often a key component of mine approvals, which need to consider and attempt to minimise the risks that negative impacts may arise. Here we examine a case study where approval for a large mining project in Australia (Carmichael Coal Mine) was challenged in court on the basis that it may result in more extensive impacts on a GDE (Doongmabulla Springs) of high ecological and cultural significance than predicted by the proponent. We show that throughout the environmental assessment and approval process, significant data gaps and scientific uncertainties remained unresolved. Evidence shows that the assumed conceptual hydrogeological model for the springs could be incorrect, and that at least one alternative conceptualisation (that the springs are dependent on a deep fault) is consistent with the available field data. Assumptions made about changes to spring flow as a consequence of mine-induced drawdown also appear problematic, with significant implications for the spring-fed wetlands. Despite the large scale of the project, it appears that critical scientific data required to resolve uncertainties and construct robust models of the springs' relationship to the groundwater system were lacking at the time of approval, contributing to uncertainty and conflict. For this reason, we recommend changes to the approval process that would require a higher standard of scientific information to be collected and reviewed, particularly in relation to key environmental assets during the environmental impact assessment process in future projects.

Are running speeds maximized with simple-spring stance mechanics?

PubMed

Clark, Kenneth P; Weyand, Peter G

2014-09-15

Are the fastest running speeds achieved using the simple-spring stance mechanics predicted by the classic spring-mass model? We hypothesized that a passive, linear-spring model would not account for the running mechanics that maximize ground force application and speed. We tested this hypothesis by comparing patterns of ground force application across athletic specialization (competitive sprinters vs. athlete nonsprinters, n = 7 each) and running speed (top speeds vs. slower ones). Vertical ground reaction forces at 5.0 and 7.0 m/s, and individual top speeds (n = 797 total footfalls) were acquired while subjects ran on a custom, high-speed force treadmill. The goodness of fit between measured vertical force vs. time waveform patterns and the patterns predicted by the spring-mass model were assessed using the R(2) statistic (where an R(2) of 1.00 = perfect fit). As hypothesized, the force application patterns of the competitive sprinters deviated significantly more from the simple-spring pattern than those of the athlete, nonsprinters across the three test speeds (R(2) <0.85 vs. R(2) ≥ 0.91, respectively), and deviated most at top speed (R(2) = 0.78 ± 0.02). Sprinters attained faster top speeds than nonsprinters (10.4 ± 0.3 vs. 8.7 ± 0.3 m/s) by applying greater vertical forces during the first half (2.65 ± 0.05 vs. 2.21 ± 0.05 body wt), but not the second half (1.71 ± 0.04 vs. 1.73 ± 0.04 body wt) of the stance phase. We conclude that a passive, simple-spring model has limited application to sprint running performance because the swiftest runners use an asymmetrical pattern of force application to maximize ground reaction forces and attain faster speeds. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Ottlé, Catherine; Peng, Shushi; Janssens, Ivan A; Lin, Xin; Poulter, Benjamin; Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe

2014-05-01

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John E.

2014-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The “Null Space Monte Carlo” method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model’s capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial/temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in East-central Florida.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John

2015-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan Aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The "Null Space Monte Carlo" method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model's capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial or temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Thermal model of attic systems with radiant barriers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkes, K.E.

This report summarizes the first phase of a project to model the thermal performance of radiant barriers. The objective of this phase of the project was to develop a refined model for the thermal performance of residential house attics, with and without radiant barriers, and to verify the model by comparing its predictions against selected existing experimental thermal performance data. Models for the thermal performance of attics with and without radiant barriers have been developed and implemented on an IBM PC/AT computer. The validity of the models has been tested by comparing their predictions with ceiling heat fluxes measured inmore » a number of laboratory and field experiments on attics with and without radiant barriers. Cumulative heat flows predicted by the models were usually within about 5 to 10 percent of measured values. In future phases of the project, the models for attic/radiant barrier performance will be coupled with a whole-house model and further comparisons with experimental data will be made. Following this, the models will be utilized to provide an initial assessment of the energy savings potential of radiant barriers in various configurations and under various climatic conditions. 38 refs., 14 figs., 22 tabs.« less

Noble gas loss may indicate groundwater flow across flow barriers in southern Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, J.M.; Bryant, Hudson G.; Stute, M.; Clark, J.F.

2003-01-01

Average calculated noble gas temperatures increase from 10 to 22oC in groundwater from recharge to discharge areas in carbonate-rock aquifers of southern Nevada. Loss of noble gases from groundwater in these regional flow systems at flow barriers is the likely process that produces an increase in recharge noble gas temperatures. Emplacement of low permeability rock into high permeability aquifer rock and the presence of low permeability shear zones reduce aquifer thickness from thousands to tens of meters. At these flow barriers, which are more than 1,000 m lower than the average recharge altitude, noble gases exsolve from the groundwater by inclusion in gas bubbles formed near the barriers because of greatly reduced hydrostatic pressure. However, re-equilibration of noble gases in the groundwater with atmospheric air at the low altitude spring discharge area, at the terminus of the regional flow system, cannot be ruled out. Molecular diffusion is not an important process for removing noble gases from groundwater in the carbonate-rock aquifers because concentration gradients are small.

Muscle-spring dynamics in time-limited, elastic movements.

PubMed

Rosario, M V; Sutton, G P; Patek, S N; Sawicki, G S

2016-09-14

Muscle contractions that load in-series springs with slow speed over a long duration do maximal work and store the most elastic energy. However, time constraints, such as those experienced during escape and predation behaviours, may prevent animals from achieving maximal force capacity from their muscles during spring-loading. Here, we ask whether animals that have limited time for elastic energy storage operate with springs that are tuned to submaximal force production. To answer this question, we used a dynamic model of a muscle-spring system undergoing a fixed-end contraction, with parameters from a time-limited spring-loader (bullfrog: Lithobates catesbeiana) and a non-time-limited spring-loader (grasshopper: Schistocerca gregaria). We found that when muscles have less time to contract, stored elastic energy is maximized with lower spring stiffness (quantified as spring constant). The spring stiffness measured in bullfrog tendons permitted less elastic energy storage than was predicted by a modelled, maximal muscle contraction. However, when muscle contractions were modelled using biologically relevant loading times for bullfrog jumps (50 ms), tendon stiffness actually maximized elastic energy storage. In contrast, grasshoppers, which are not time limited, exhibited spring stiffness that maximized elastic energy storage when modelled with a maximal muscle contraction. These findings demonstrate the significance of evolutionary variation in tendon and apodeme properties to realistic jumping contexts as well as the importance of considering the effect of muscle dynamics and behavioural constraints on energy storage in muscle-spring systems. © 2016 The Author(s).

A cluster expansion model for predicting activation barrier of atomic processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rehman, Tafizur; Jaipal, M.; Chatterjee, Abhijit, E-mail: achatter@iitk.ac.in

2013-06-15

We introduce a procedure based on cluster expansion models for predicting the activation barrier of atomic processes encountered while studying the dynamics of a material system using the kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) method. Starting with an interatomic potential description, a mathematical derivation is presented to show that the local environment dependence of the activation barrier can be captured using cluster interaction models. Next, we develop a systematic procedure for training the cluster interaction model on-the-fly, which involves: (i) obtaining activation barriers for handful local environments using nudged elastic band (NEB) calculations, (ii) identifying the local environment by analyzing the NEBmore » results, and (iii) estimating the cluster interaction model parameters from the activation barrier data. Once a cluster expansion model has been trained, it is used to predict activation barriers without requiring any additional NEB calculations. Numerical studies are performed to validate the cluster expansion model by studying hop processes in Ag/Ag(100). We show that the use of cluster expansion model with KMC enables efficient generation of an accurate process rate catalog.« less

Performance Evaluation and Modeling of Erosion Resistant Turbine Engine Thermal Barrier Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Robert A.; Zhu, Dongming; Kuczmarski, Maria

2008-01-01

The erosion resistant turbine thermal barrier coating system is critical to the rotorcraft engine performance and durability. The objective of this work was to determine erosion resistance of advanced thermal barrier coating systems under simulated engine erosion and thermal gradient environments, thus validating a new thermal barrier coating turbine blade technology for future rotorcraft applications. A high velocity burner rig based erosion test approach was established and a new series of rare earth oxide- and TiO2/Ta2O5- alloyed, ZrO2-based low conductivity thermal barrier coatings were designed and processed. The low conductivity thermal barrier coating systems demonstrated significant improvements in the erosion resistance. A comprehensive model based on accumulated strain damage low cycle fatigue is formulated for blade erosion life prediction. The work is currently aiming at the simulated engine erosion testing of advanced thermal barrier coated turbine blades to establish and validate the coating life prediction models.

The ecology and diversity of microbial eukaryotes in geothermal springs.

PubMed

Oliverio, Angela M; Power, Jean F; Washburne, Alex; Cary, S Craig; Stott, Matthew B; Fierer, Noah

2018-04-16

Decades of research into the Bacteria and Archaea living in geothermal spring ecosystems have yielded great insight into the diversity of life and organismal adaptations to extreme environmental conditions. Surprisingly, while microbial eukaryotes (protists) are also ubiquitous in many environments, their diversity across geothermal springs has mostly been ignored. We used high-throughput sequencing to illuminate the diversity and structure of microbial eukaryotic communities found in 160 geothermal springs with broad ranges in temperature and pH across the Taupō Volcanic Zone in New Zealand. Protistan communities were moderately predictable in composition and varied most strongly across gradients in pH and temperature. Moreover, this variation mirrored patterns observed for bacterial and archaeal communities across the same spring samples, highlighting that there are similar ecological constraints across the tree of life. While extreme pH values were associated with declining protist diversity, high temperature springs harbored substantial amounts of protist diversity. Although protists are often overlooked in geothermal springs and other extreme environments, our results indicate that such environments can host distinct and diverse protistan communities.

Mexican Americans' Educational Barriers and Progress: Is the Magic Key within Reach? PERSPECTIVAS: Issues in Higher Education Policy and Practice. Issue No. 5, Spring 2016

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zambrana, Ruth Enid; Hurtado, Sylvia

2016-01-01

This policy brief is based on the edited book "The Magic Key: The Educational Journey of Mexican Americans from K-12 to College and Beyond" (Zambrana & Hurtado, 2015a), which focuses on the experiences of Mexican Americans in education. Drawing from an interdisciplinary corpus of work, the authors move beyond the rhetoric of progress…

Joint Force Quarterly. Number 4, Spring 1994

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-01

arbitrary cultural difference; the most distinct factor in the tradi- tional Chinese way of thinking about war was the sheer scale of the battlefield...operations instinctively considered them within a complex cultural , po- litical, and moral context. Therefore ancient Chinese mili- tary works might appear...using the expanse of the Atlantic moat as a barrier to involvement. Conduct- ing business with those states in need of loans and goods to field armies

Fabrication and modeling of shape memory alloy springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, B.; Kadkhodaei, M.; Barati, M.; Karimzadeh, F.

2016-12-01

In this paper, shape memory alloy (SMA) helical springs are produced by shape setting two sets of NiTi (Ti-55.87 at% Ni) wires, one of which showing shape memory effect and another one showing pseudoelasticity at the ambient temperature. Different pitches as well as annealing temperatures are tried to investigate the effect of such parameters on the thermomechanical characteristics of the fabricated springs. Phase transformation temperatures of the products are measured by differential scanning calorimetry and are compared with those of the original wires. Compression tests are also carried out, and stiffness of each spring is determined. The desired pitches are so that a group of springs experiences phase transition during loading while the other does not. The former shows a varying stiffness upon the application of compression, but the latter acts as passive springs with a predetermined stiffness. Based on the von-Mises effective stress and strain, an enhanced one-dimensional constitutive model is further proposed to describe the shear stress-strain response within the coils of an SMA spring. The theoretically predicted force-displacement responses of the produced springs are shown to be in a reasonable agreement with the experimental results. Finally, effects of variations in geometric parameters on the axial force-displacement response of an SMA spring are investigated.

NiTi Alloy Negator Springs for Long-Stroke Constant-Force Shape Memory Actuators: Modeling, Simulation and Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaggiari, Andrea; Dragoni, Eugenio; Tuissi, Ausonio

2014-07-01

This work aims at the experimental characterization and modeling validation of shape memory alloy (SMA) Negator springs. According to the classic engineering books on springs, a Negator spring is a spiral spring made of strip of metal wound on the flat with an inherent curvature such that, in repose, each coil wraps tightly on its inner neighbor. The main feature of a Negator springs is the nearly constant force displacement behavior in the unwinding of the strip. Moreover the stroke is very long, theoretically infinite, as it depends only on the length of the initial strip. A Negator spring made in SMA is built and experimentally tested to demonstrate the feasibility of this actuator. The shape memory Negator spring behavior can be modeled with an analytical procedure, which is in good agreement with the experimental test and can be used for design purposes. In both cases, the material is modeled as elastic in austenitic range, while an exponential continuum law is used to describe the martensitic behavior. The experimental results confirms the applicability of this kind of geometry to the shape memory alloy actuators, and the analytical model is confirmed to be a powerful design tool to dimension and predict the spring behavior both in martensitic and austenitic range.

Anomalously soft non-Euclidean spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Ido; Sharon, Eran

In this work we study the mechanical properties of a frustrated elastic ribbon spring - the non-Euclidean minimal spring. This spring belongs to the family of non-Euclidean plates: it has no spontaneous curvature, but its lateral intrinsic geometry is described by a non-Euclidean reference metric. The reference metric of the minimal spring is hyperbolic, and can be embedded as a minimal surface. We argue that the existence of a continuous set of such isometric minimal surfaces with different extensions leads to a complete degeneracy of the bulk elastic energy of the minimal spring under elongation. This degeneracy is removed only by boundary layer effects. As a result, the mechanical properties of the minimal spring are unusual: the spring is ultra-soft with rigidity that depends on the thickness, t , as t raise 0 . 7 ex 7 7 2 lower 0 . 7 ex 2, and does not explicitly depend on the ribbon's width. These predictions are confirmed by a numerical study of a constrained spring. This work is the first to address the unusual mechanical properties of constrained non-Euclidean elastic objects. We also present a novel experimental system that is capable of constructing such objects, along with many other non-Euclidean plates.

A discrete mechanics framework for real time virtual surgical simulations with application to virtual laparoscopic nephrectomy.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiangmin; Zhang, Nan; Sha, Desong; Shen, Yunhe; Tamma, Kumar K; Sweet, Robert

2009-01-01

The inability to render realistic soft-tissue behavior in real time has remained a barrier to face and content aspects of validity for many virtual reality surgical training systems. Biophysically based models are not only suitable for training purposes but also for patient-specific clinical applications, physiological modeling and surgical planning. When considering the existing approaches for modeling soft tissue for virtual reality surgical simulation, the computer graphics-based approach lacks predictive capability; the mass-spring model (MSM) based approach lacks biophysically realistic soft-tissue dynamic behavior; and the finite element method (FEM) approaches fail to meet the real-time requirement. The present development stems from physics fundamental thermodynamic first law; for a space discrete dynamic system directly formulates the space discrete but time continuous governing equation with embedded material constitutive relation and results in a discrete mechanics framework which possesses a unique balance between the computational efforts and the physically realistic soft-tissue dynamic behavior. We describe the development of the discrete mechanics framework with focused attention towards a virtual laparoscopic nephrectomy application.

Hydrology of the coastal springs ground-water basin and adjacent parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knochenmus, Lari A.; Yobbi, Dann K.

2001-01-01

The coastal springs in Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida consist of three first-order magnitude springs and numerous smaller springs, which are points of substantial ground-water discharge from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Spring flow is proportional to the water-level altitude in the aquifer and is affected primarily by the magnitude and timing of rainfall. Ground-water levels in 206 Upper Floridan aquifer wells, and surface-water stage, flow, and specific conductance of water from springs at 10 gaging stations were measured to define the hydrologic variability (temporally and spatially) in the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin and adjacent parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties. Rainfall at 46 stations and ground-water withdrawals for three counties, were used to calculate water budgets, to evaluate long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and to evaluate relations among the hydrologic components. Predictive equations to estimate daily spring flow were developed for eight gaging stations using regression techniques. Regression techniques included ordinary least squares and multiple linear regression techniques. The predictive equations indicate that ground-water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer are directly related to spring flow. At tidally affected gaging stations, spring flow is inversely related to spring-pool altitude. The springs have similar seasonal flow patterns throughout the area. Water-budget analysis provided insight into the relative importance of the hydrologic components expected to influence spring flow. Four water budgets were constructed for small ground-water basins that form the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin. Rainfall averaged 55 inches per year and was the only source of inflow to the Basin. The pathways for outflow were evapotranspiration (34 inches per year), runoff by spring flow (8 inches per year), ground-water outflow from upward leakage (11 inches per year), and ground-water withdrawal (2 inches per year). Recharge (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) to the Upper Floridan aquifer consists of vertical leakage through the surficial deposits. Discharge is primarily through springs and diffuse upward leakage that maintains the extensive swamps along the Gulf of Mexico. The ground-water basins had slightly different partitioning of hydrologic components, reflecting variation among the regions. Trends in hydrologic data were identified using nonparametric statistical techniques to infer long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and yielded mixed results. No trend in rainfall was detected during the past century. No trend in spring flow was detected in 1931-98. Although monotonic trends were not detected, rainfall patterns are naturally variable from month to month and year to year; this variability is reflected in ground-water levels and spring flows. A decreasing trend in ground-water levels was detected in the Weeki Wachee well (1966-98), but the trend was statistically weak. At current ground-water withdrawal rates, there is no discernible affect on ground-water levels and spring flows. Sporadic data records, lack of continuous data, and inconsistent periods of record among the hydrologic components impeded analysis of long-term changes to the hydrologic system and interrelations among components. The ongoing collection of hydrologic data from index sites could provide much needed information to assess the hydrologic factors affecting the quantity and quality of spring flow in the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin.

Mapping monomeric threading to protein-protein structure prediction.

PubMed

Guerler, Aysam; Govindarajoo, Brandon; Zhang, Yang

2013-03-25

The key step of template-based protein-protein structure prediction is the recognition of complexes from experimental structure libraries that have similar quaternary fold. Maintaining two monomer and dimer structure libraries is however laborious, and inappropriate library construction can degrade template recognition coverage. We propose a novel strategy SPRING to identify complexes by mapping monomeric threading alignments to protein-protein interactions based on the original oligomer entries in the PDB, which does not rely on library construction and increases the efficiency and quality of complex template recognitions. SPRING is tested on 1838 nonhomologous protein complexes which can recognize correct quaternary template structures with a TM score >0.5 in 1115 cases after excluding homologous proteins. The average TM score of the first model is 60% and 17% higher than that by HHsearch and COTH, respectively, while the number of targets with an interface RMSD <2.5 Å by SPRING is 134% and 167% higher than these competing methods. SPRING is controlled with ZDOCK on 77 docking benchmark proteins. Although the relative performance of SPRING and ZDOCK depends on the level of homology filters, a combination of the two methods can result in a significantly higher model quality than ZDOCK at all homology thresholds. These data demonstrate a new efficient approach to quaternary structure recognition that is ready to use for genome-scale modeling of protein-protein interactions due to the high speed and accuracy.

Potential Influence of Arctic Sea Ice to the Inter-annual Variations of East Asian Spring Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhiwei; Li, Yanjie

2016-04-01

Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly on how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and has significant influences to agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results manifest that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variances of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream tele-connections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over Mongolian Plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Single-Cell-Genomics-Facilitated Read Binning of Candidate Phylum EM19 Genomes from Geothermal Spring Metagenomes

PubMed Central

Becraft, Eric D.; Dodsworth, Jeremy A.; Murugapiran, Senthil K.; Ohlsson, J. Ingemar; Briggs, Brandon R.; Kanbar, Jad; De Vlaminck, Iwijn; Quake, Stephen R.; Dong, Hailiang; Hedlund, Brian P.

2015-01-01

The vast majority of microbial life remains uncatalogued due to the inability to cultivate these organisms in the laboratory. This “microbial dark matter” represents a substantial portion of the tree of life and of the populations that contribute to chemical cycling in many ecosystems. In this work, we leveraged an existing single-cell genomic data set representing the candidate bacterial phylum “Calescamantes” (EM19) to calibrate machine learning algorithms and define metagenomic bins directly from pyrosequencing reads derived from Great Boiling Spring in the U.S. Great Basin. Compared to other assembly-based methods, taxonomic binning with a read-based machine learning approach yielded final assemblies with the highest predicted genome completeness of any method tested. Read-first binning subsequently was used to extract Calescamantes bins from all metagenomes with abundant Calescamantes populations, including metagenomes from Octopus Spring and Bison Pool in Yellowstone National Park and Gongxiaoshe Spring in Yunnan Province, China. Metabolic reconstruction suggests that Calescamantes are heterotrophic, facultative anaerobes, which can utilize oxidized nitrogen sources as terminal electron acceptors for respiration in the absence of oxygen and use proteins as their primary carbon source. Despite their phylogenetic divergence, the geographically separate Calescamantes populations were highly similar in their predicted metabolic capabilities and core gene content, respiring O2, or oxidized nitrogen species for energy conservation in distant but chemically similar hot springs. PMID:26637598

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pilsner, B. H.; Hillery, R. V.; Mcknight, R. L.; Cook, T. S.; Kim, K. S.; Duderstadt, E. C.

1986-01-01

The objectives of this program are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system, and then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The program is divided into two phases, each consisting of several tasks. The work in Phase 1 is aimed at identifying the relative importance of the various failure modes, and developing and verifying life prediction model(s) for the predominant model for a thermal barrier coating system. Two possible predominant failure mechanisms being evaluated are bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep. The work in Phase 2 will develop design-capable, causal, life prediction models for thermomechanical and thermochemical failure modes, and for the exceptional conditions of foreign object damage and erosion.

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Software Toolbox Capabilities in Assessing the Degradation of Cementitious Barriers - 13487

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flach, G.P.; Burns, H.H.; Langton, C.

2013-07-01

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Project is a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) Office of Tank Waste and Nuclear Materials Management. The CBP program has developed a set of integrated tools (based on state-of-the-art models and leaching test methods) that help improve understanding and predictions of the long-term structural, hydraulic and chemical performance of cementitious barriers used in nuclear applications. Tools selected for and developed under this program have been used to evaluate and predict the behavior of cementitious barriers used in near-surface engineered waste disposal systems for periods of performance up tomore » 100 years and longer for operating facilities and longer than 1000 years for waste disposal. The CBP Software Toolbox has produced tangible benefits to the DOE Performance Assessment (PA) community. A review of prior DOE PAs has provided a list of potential opportunities for improving cementitious barrier performance predictions through the use of the CBP software tools. These opportunities include: 1) impact of atmospheric exposure to concrete and grout before closure, such as accelerated slag and Tc-99 oxidation, 2) prediction of changes in K{sub d}/mobility as a function of time that result from changing pH and redox conditions, 3) concrete degradation from rebar corrosion due to carbonation, 4) early age cracking from drying and/or thermal shrinkage and 5) degradation due to sulfate attack. The CBP has already had opportunity to provide near-term, tangible support to ongoing DOE-EM PAs such as the Savannah River Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) by providing a sulfate attack analysis that predicts the extent and damage that sulfate ingress will have on the concrete vaults over extended time (i.e., > 1000 years). This analysis is one of the many technical opportunities in cementitious barrier performance that can be addressed by the DOE-EM sponsored CBP software tools. Modification of the existing tools can provide many opportunities to bring defense in depth in prediction of the performance of cementitious barriers over time. (authors)« less

Integrating urban recharge uncertainty into standard groundwater modeling practice: A case study on water main break predictions for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer, Austin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinner, K.; Teasley, R. L.

2016-12-01

Groundwater models serve as integral tools for understanding flow processes and informing stakeholders and policy makers in management decisions. Historically, these models tended towards a deterministic nature, relying on historical data to predict and inform future decisions based on model outputs. This research works towards developing a stochastic method of modeling recharge inputs from pipe main break predictions in an existing groundwater model, which subsequently generates desired outputs incorporating future uncertainty rather than deterministic data. The case study for this research is the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer near Austin, Texas. Researchers and water resource professionals have modeled the Edwards Aquifer for decades due to its high water quality, fragile ecosystem, and stakeholder interest. The original case study and model that this research is built upon was developed as a co-design problem with regional stakeholders and the model outcomes are generated specifically for communication with policy makers and managers. Recently, research in the Barton Springs segment demonstrated a significant contribution of urban, or anthropogenic, recharge to the aquifer, particularly during dry period, using deterministic data sets. Due to social and ecological importance of urban water loss to recharge, this study develops an evaluation method to help predicted pipe breaks and their related recharge contribution within the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. To benefit groundwater management decision processes, the performance measures captured in the model results, such as springflow, head levels, storage, and others, were determined by previous work in elicitation of problem framing to determine stakeholder interests and concerns. The results of the previous deterministic model and the stochastic model are compared to determine gains to stakeholder knowledge through the additional modeling

Discrete Spring Model for Predicting Delamination Growth in Z-Fiber Reinforced DCB Specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratcliffe, James G.; OBrien, T. Kevin

2004-01-01

Beam theory analysis was applied to predict delamination growth in Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) specimens reinforced in the thickness direction with pultruded pins, known as Z-fibers. The specimen arms were modeled as cantilever beams supported by discrete springs, which were included to represent the pins. A bi-linear, irreversible damage law was used to represent Z-fiber damage, the parameters of which were obtained from previous experiments. Closed-form solutions were developed for specimen compliance and displacements corresponding to Z-fiber row locations. A solution strategy was formulated to predict delamination growth, in which the parent laminate mode I critical strain energy release rate was used as the criterion for delamination growth. The solution procedure was coded into FORTRAN 90, giving a dedicated software tool for performing the delamination prediction. Comparison of analysis results with previous analysis and experiment showed good agreement, yielding an initial verification for the analytical procedure.

Discrete Spring Model for Predicting Delamination Growth in Z-Fiber Reinforced DCB Specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratcliffe, James G.; O'Brien, T. Kevin

2004-01-01

Beam theory analysis was applied to predict delamination growth in DCB specimens reinforced in the thickness direction with pultruded pins, known as Z-fibers. The specimen arms were modeled as cantilever beams supported by discrete springs, which were included to represent the pins. A bi-linear, irreversible damage law was used to represent Z-fiber damage, the parameters of which were obtained from previous experiments. Closed-form solutions were developed for specimen compliance and displacements corresponding to Z-fiber row locations. A solution strategy was formulated to predict delamination growth, in which the parent laminate mode I fracture toughness was used as the criterion for delamination growth. The solution procedure was coded into FORTRAN 90, giving a dedicated software tool for performing the delamination prediction. Comparison of analysis results with previous analysis and experiment showed good agreement, yielding an initial verification for the analytical procedure.

Metagenomic identification of active methanogens and methanotrophs in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy.

PubMed

Brazelton, William J; Thornton, Christopher N; Hyer, Alex; Twing, Katrina I; Longino, August A; Lang, Susan Q; Lilley, Marvin D; Früh-Green, Gretchen L; Schrenk, Matthew O

2017-01-01

The production of hydrogen and methane by geochemical reactions associated with the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks can potentially support subsurface microbial ecosystems independent of the photosynthetic biosphere. Methanogenic and methanotrophic microorganisms are abundant in marine hydrothermal systems heavily influenced by serpentinization, but evidence for methane-cycling archaea and bacteria in continental serpentinite springs has been limited. This report provides metagenomic and experimental evidence for active methanogenesis and methanotrophy by microbial communities in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy. Methanogens belonging to family Methanobacteriaceae and methanotrophic bacteria belonging to family Methylococcaceae were heavily enriched in three ultrabasic springs (pH 12). Metagenomic data also suggest the potential for hydrogen oxidation, hydrogen production, carbon fixation, fermentation, and organic acid metabolism in the ultrabasic springs. The predicted metabolic capabilities are consistent with an active subsurface ecosystem supported by energy and carbon liberated by geochemical reactions within the serpentinite rocks of the Voltri Massif.

Force probe simulations of a reversibly rebinding system: Impact of pulling device stiffness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaschonek, Stefan; Diezemann, Gregor

2017-03-01

We present a detailed study of the parameter dependence of force probe molecular dynamics (FPMD) simulations. Using a well studied calix[4]arene catenane dimer as a model system, we systematically vary the pulling velocity and the stiffness of the applied external potential. This allows us to investigate how the results of pulling simulations operating in the constant velocity mode (force-ramp mode) depend on the details of the simulation setup. The system studied has the further advantage of showing reversible rebinding meaning that we can monitor the opening and the rebinding transition. Many models designed to extract kinetic information from rupture force distributions work in the limit of soft springs and all quantities are found to depend solely on the so-called loading rate, the product of spring stiffness and pulling velocity. This approximation is known to break down when stiff springs are used, a situation often encountered in molecular simulations. We find that while some quantities only depend on the loading rate, others show an explicit dependence on the spring constant used in the FPMD simulation. In particular, the force versus extension curves show an almost stiffness independent rupture force but the force jump after the rupture transition does depend roughly linearly on the value of the stiffness. The kinetic rates determined from the rupture force distributions show a dependence on the stiffness that can be understood in terms of the corresponding dependence of the characteristic forces alone. These dependencies can be understood qualitatively in terms of a harmonic model for the molecular free energy landscape. It appears that the pulling velocities employed are so large that the crossover from activated dynamics to diffusive dynamics takes place on the time scale of our simulations. We determine the effective distance of the free energy minima of the closed and the open configurations of the system from the barrier via an analysis of the hydrogen-bond network with results in accord with earlier simulations. We find that the system is quite brittle in the force regime monitored in the sense that the barrier is located near to the closed state.

Analysis of Spring Flow Change in the Jinan City under Influences of Recent Human Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaomeng; Hu, Litang; Sun, Kangning

2018-06-01

Jinan city, the capital of Shandong Province in China, is famous for its beautiful springs. With the rapid development of the economy in recent years, water demand in Jinan city has been increasing rapidly. The over-exploitation of groundwater has caused a decline in groundwater level and, notably, dried up springs under extreme climate conditions. To keep the springs gushing perennially and sustainably use groundwater resources, the local government has implemented many measures to restore the water table, such as the Sponge City Construction Project in Jinan. Focusing on changes in spring flow and its impact factors in Jinan, this paper analyzes the changes in observed spring flow in the most recent 50 years and then discusses the causes of decreases in the spring flow with the consideration of climate and human activities. Spring flow in the study area was changed from the natural state to a period of multiwater source management. The artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to demonstrate the relationship among spring flow, precipitation, and groundwater abstraction to predict the variations of spring flow under the conditions of climate change and human activities. The good agreement between the simulated and observed results indicates that both precipitation and exploitation are important influence factors. However the effective infiltration of precipitation into groundwater is the most influential factor. The results can provide guidance for groundwater resource protection in the Jinan spring catchment.

[Variation of satellite-based spring vegetation phenology and the relationship with climate in the Northern Hemisphere over 1982 to 2009.

PubMed

Cong, Nan; Shen, Miao Gen

2016-09-01

In-depth understanding the variation of vegetation spring phenology is important and nece-ssary for estimation and prediction of ecosystem response to climate change. Satellite-based estimation is one of the important methods for detecting the vegetation spring phenology in Northern Hemisphere. However, there are still many uncertainties among different remote sensing models. In this study, we employed NDVI satellite product from 1982 to 2009 to estimate vegetation green-up onset dates in spring across Northern Hemisphere, and further analyzed the phenology spatio-temporal variation and the relationship with climate. Results showed that spatial mean spring phenology significantly advanced by (4.0±0.8) days during this period in the Northern Hemisphere, while spring phenology advanced much faster in Eurasia (0.22±0.04 d·a -1 ) than in North America (0.03±0.02 d·a -1 ). Moreover, phenology of different vegetation types changed inconstantly during the period. All five methods consistently indicated that grassland significantly advanced, while forests didn't advance robustly among methods. In addition, the interannual change of spring phenology was mainly driven by spring temperature. The spring phenology advanced (3.2±0.5) days with 1 ℃ increase in temperature. On the contrary, we did not find significant relationship between vegetation spring phenology and spring accumulative precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere (P>0.05) in this study.

Understanding exercise self-efficacy and barriers to leisure-time physical activity among postnatal women.

PubMed

Cramp, Anita G; Bray, Steven R

2011-07-01

Studies have demonstrated that postnatal women are at high risk for physical inactivity and generally show lower levels of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) compared to prepregnancy. The overall purpose of the current study was to investigate social cognitive correlates of LTPA among postnatal women during a 6-month period following childbirth. A total of 230 women (mean age = 30.9) provided descriptive data regarding barriers to LTPA and completed measures of LTPA and self-efficacy (exercise and barrier) for at least one of the study data collection periods. A total of 1,520 barriers were content analyzed. Both exercise and barrier self-efficacy were positively associated with subsequent LTPA. Exercise self-efficacy at postnatal week 12 predicted LTPA from postnatal weeks 12 to 18 (β = .40, R (2) = .18) and exercise self-efficacy at postnatal week 24 predicted LTPA during weeks 24-30 (β = .49, R (2) = .30). Barrier self-efficacy at week 18 predicted LTPA from weeks 18 to 24 (β = .33, R (2) = .13). The results of the study identify a number of barriers to LTPA at multiple time points closely following childbirth which may hinder initiation, resumption or maintenance of LTPA. The results also suggest that higher levels of exercise and barrier self-efficacy are prospectively associated with higher levels of LTPA in the early postnatal period. Future interventions should be designed to investigate causal effects of developing participants' exercise and barrier self-efficacy for promoting and maintaining LTPA during the postnatal period.

Has climatic warming altered spring flowering date of Sonoran Desert shrubs?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

2007-01-01

With global warming, flowering at many locations has shifted toward earlier dates of bloom. A steady increase in average annual temperature since the late 1890s makes it likely that flowering also has advanced in the northern Sonoran Desert of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In this study, phenological models were used to predict annual date of spring bloom in the northern Sonoran Desert from 1894 to 2004; then, herbarium specimens were assessed for objective evidence of the predicted shift in flowering time. The phenological models were derived from known flowering requirements (triggers and heat sums) of Sonoran Desert shrubs. According to the models, flowering might have advanced by 20-41 d from 1894 to 2004. Analysis of herbarium specimens collected during the 20th century supported the model predictions. Over time, there was a significant increase in the proportion of shrub specimens collected in flower in March and a significant decrease in the proportion collected in May. Thus, the flowering curve - the proportion of individuals in flower in each spring month - shifted toward the start of the calendar year between 1900 and 1999. This shift could not be explained by collection activity: collectors showed no tendency to be active earlier in the year as time went on, nor did activity toward the end of spring decline in recent decades. Earlier bloom eventually could have substantial impacts on plant and animal communities in the Sonoran Desert, especially on migratory hummingbirds and population dynamics of shrubs.

Conformation and dynamics of polymer chains on dirty surfaces: A discrete-to-continuum approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foo, Grace M.; Pandey, R. B.

1998-07-01

A discrete-to-continuum (DC) simulation approach is introduced to study the statics and dynamics of polymer chains in two dimensions with quenched barriers, a dirty surface. In our DC hybrid approach, the large-scale relaxation of polymer chains on a discrete disordered lattice is followed by off-lattice simulation using a bead-spring chain model with a finitely extensible nonlinear elastic (FENE) potential for covalent bonds and Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential for nonbonded interactions. Segregation/folding of chains, which occurs at low temperatures (T=0.2, 1.0) with LJ interaction, becomes more difficult as the concentration of barriers increases, due to a screening effect of the barriers. In contrast to the chains' contraction at high temperature (i.e., T=5) and their collapse in athermal systems, chains are elongated on increasing the barrier concentration—a barrier-induced stretching. Variations of the root-mean-square (rms) displacements of the center of mass (Rcm) of the chains and their center node (Rcn) with time (t) show power-law behaviors (Rcm˜tν1, Rcn˜tν2) with nonuniversal exponents in the range ν1≃0.40-0.05 and ν2≃0.30-0.05, respectively, depending on temperature and barrier concentration. The radius of gyration (Rg) and the average bond length () expand on increasing the barrier concentration at low temperature and contract at high temperature, which is consistent with the variation of the width of the radial distribution function.

Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin

2001-01-01

Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

Sex differences in theory-based predictors of leisure time physical activity in a population-based sample of adults with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Stapleton, Jessie N; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A

2014-09-01

To examine sex differences in theory-based predictors of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) among men and women with spinal cord injury, and secondarily, to identify factors that might explain any sex differences in social cognitions. A secondary analysis of Study of Health and Activity in People with Spinal Cord Injury survey data. Community. Community-dwelling men (n=536) and women (n=164) recruited from 4 rehabilitation and research centers. Not applicable. Subjective norms, attitudes, barrier self-efficacy, perceived controllability (PC), and intentions. Men had stronger PC and barrier self-efficacy than women. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that social support significantly predicted PC for both sexes, and health, pain, and physical independence also significantly predicted PC for men. Social support, health, and pain significantly predicted barrier self-efficacy for men. Social support was the only significant predictor of barrier self-efficacy for women. Women felt significantly less control over their physical activity behavior and had lower confidence to overcome barriers to physical activity than did men. Although social support predicted PC and barrier self-efficacy in both men and women, men seemed to take additional factors into consideration when formulating their control beliefs for LTPA. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Controlling the hydration of the skin though the application of occluding barrier creams

PubMed Central

Sparr, Emma; Millecamps, Danielle; Isoir, Muriel; Burnier, Véronique; Larsson, Åsa; Cabane, Bernard

2013-01-01

The skin is a barrier membrane that separates environments with profoundly different water contents. The barrier properties are assured by the outer layer of the skin, the stratum corneum (SC), which controls the transepidermal water loss. The SC acts as a responding membrane, since its hydration and permeability vary with the boundary condition, which is the activity of water at the outer surface of the skin. We show how this boundary condition can be changed by the application of a barrier cream that makes a film with a high resistance to the transport of water. We present a quantitative model that predicts hydration and water transport in SC that is covered by such a film. We also develop an experimental method for measuring the specific resistance to water transport of films made of occluding barrier creams. Finally, we combine the theoretical model with the measured properties of the barrier creams to predict how a film of cream changes the activity of water at the outer surface of the SC. Using the known variations of SC permeability and hydration with the water activity in its environment (i.e. the relative humidity), we can thus predict how a film of barrier cream changes SC hydration. PMID:23269846

Controlling the hydration of the skin though the application of occluding barrier creams.

PubMed

Sparr, Emma; Millecamps, Danielle; Isoir, Muriel; Burnier, Véronique; Larsson, Åsa; Cabane, Bernard

2013-03-06

The skin is a barrier membrane that separates environments with profoundly different water contents. The barrier properties are assured by the outer layer of the skin, the stratum corneum (SC), which controls the transepidermal water loss. The SC acts as a responding membrane, since its hydration and permeability vary with the boundary condition, which is the activity of water at the outer surface of the skin. We show how this boundary condition can be changed by the application of a barrier cream that makes a film with a high resistance to the transport of water. We present a quantitative model that predicts hydration and water transport in SC that is covered by such a film. We also develop an experimental method for measuring the specific resistance to water transport of films made of occluding barrier creams. Finally, we combine the theoretical model with the measured properties of the barrier creams to predict how a film of cream changes the activity of water at the outer surface of the SC. Using the known variations of SC permeability and hydration with the water activity in its environment (i.e. the relative humidity), we can thus predict how a film of barrier cream changes SC hydration.

A Modified Johnson-Cook Model for Sheet Metal Forming at Elevated Temperatures and Its Application for Cooled Stress-Strain Curve and Spring-Back Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duc-Toan, Nguyen; Tien-Long, Banh; Young-Suk, Kim; Dong-Won, Jung

2011-08-01

In this study, a modified Johnson-Cook (J-C) model and an innovated method to determine (J-C) material parameters are proposed to predict more correctly stress-strain curve for tensile tests in elevated temperatures. A MATLAB tool is used to determine material parameters by fitting a curve to follow Ludwick's hardening law at various elevated temperatures. Those hardening law parameters are then utilized to determine modified (J-C) model material parameters. The modified (J-C) model shows the better prediction compared to the conventional one. As the first verification, an FEM tensile test simulation based on the isotropic hardening model for boron sheet steel at elevated temperatures was carried out via a user-material subroutine, using an explicit finite element code, and compared with the measurements. The temperature decrease of all elements due to the air cooling process was then calculated when considering the modified (J-C) model and coded to VUMAT subroutine for tensile test simulation of cooling process. The modified (J-C) model showed the good agreement between the simulation results and the corresponding experiments. The second investigation was applied for V-bending spring-back prediction of magnesium alloy sheets at elevated temperatures. Here, the combination of proposed J-C model with modified hardening law considering the unusual plastic behaviour for magnesium alloy sheet was adopted for FEM simulation of V-bending spring-back prediction and shown the good comparability with corresponding experiments.

Comparison of CRD, APU, and state models for Iowa corn and soybeans and North Dakota barley and spring wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, V.

1983-01-01

A comparison was made among the CEAS crop reporting district (CRD), agrophysical unit (APU), and state level multiple regression yield models for corn and soybeans in Iowa and barley and spring wheat in North Dakota. The best predictions were made by the state model for North Dakota spring wheat, by the APU models for barley, by the CRD models for Iowa soybeans, and by APU covariance models for Iowa corn. Because of this lack of consistency of model performance, CRD models would be recommended due to the availability of the data.

Spring dehydration in the Antarctic stratospheric vortex observed by HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, R. Bradley; Grose, William L.; Russell, James M., III; Tuck, Adrian F.; Swinbank, Richard; O'Neill, Alan

1994-01-01

The distribution of dehydrated air in the middle and lower stratosphere during the 1992 Southern Hemisphere spring is investigated using Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) observations and trajectory techniques. Comparisons between previously published Version 9 and the improved Version 16 retrievals on the 700-K isentropic surface show very slight (0.05 ppmv) increases in Version 16 CH4 relative to Version 9 within the polar vortex. Version 16 H2O mixing ratios show a reduction of 0.5 ppmv relative to Version 9 within the polar night jet and a reduction of nearly 1.0 ppmv in middle latitudes when compared to Version 9. The version 16 HALOE retrievals show low mixing ratios of total hydrogen (2CH4 + H2O) within the polar vortex on both 700 and 425 K isentropic surfaces relative to typical middle-stratospheric 2CH4 + H2O mixing ratios. The low 2CH4 + H2O mixing ratios are associated with dehydration. Slight reductions in total hydrogen, relative to typical middle-stratospheric values, are found at these levels throughout the Southern Hemisphere during this period. Trajectory calculations show that middle-latitude air masses are composed of a mixture of air from within the polar night jet and air from middle latitudes. A strong kinematic barrier to large-scale exchange is found on the poleward flank of the polar night jet at 700 K. A much weaker kinematic barrier is found at 425 K. The impact of the finite tangent pathlength of the HALOE measurements is investigated using an idealized tracer distribution. This experiment suggests that HALOE should be able to resolve the kinematic barrier, if it exists.

Geology and Thermal History of Mammoth Hot Springs, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bargar, Keith E.

1978-01-01

Mammoth Hot Springs, located about 8 km inside the north entrance to Yellowstone National Park, consists of nearly 100 hot springs scattered over a score of steplike travertine terraces. The travertine deposits range in age from late Pleistocene to the present. Sporadic records of hot-spring activity suggest that most of the current major springs have been intermittently active since at least 1871. Water moving along the Norris-Mammoth fault zone is heated by partly molten magma and enriched in calcium and bicarbonate. Upon reaching Mammoth this thermal water (temperature about 73?C) moves up through the old terrace deposits along preexisting vertical linear planes of weakness. As the water reaches the surface, pressure is released, carbon dioxide escapes as a gas, and bicarbonate in the water is partitioned into more carbon dioxide and carbonate; the carbonate then combines with calcium to precipitate calcium carbonate, forming travertine. The travertine usually precipitates rapidly from solution and is lightweight and porous; however, dense travertine, such as is found in core from the 113-m research drill hole Y-10 located on one of the upper terraces, forms beneath the surface by deposition in the pore spaces of older deposits. The terraces abound with unusual hot-spring deposits such as terracettes, cones, and fissure ridges. Semicircular ledges (ranging in width from about 0.3 m to as much as 2.5 m), called terracettes, formed by deposition of travertine around slowly rising pools. Complex steplike arrangements of terracettes have developed along runoff channels of some hot springs. A few hot springs have deposited cone-shaped mounds, most of which reach heights of 1-2 m before becoming dormant. However, one long-inactive cone named Liberty Cap attained a height of about 14 m. Fissure ridges are linear mounds of travertine deposited from numerous hot-spring vents along a medial fracture zone. The ridges range in height from about 1 to 6 m and in length from a few meters to nearly 300 m; width at the base of a ridge is equal to or greater than its height. In some places, such as along the northern border of Main Terrace, water from new hot-spring activity becomes ponded behind fissure-ridge barriers or dams and deposits travertine that eventually forms large flat terraces.

On prediction of crack in different orientations in pipe using frequency based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naniwadekar, M. R.; Naik, S. S.; Maiti, S. K.

2008-04-01

A technique based on measurement of change in natural frequencies and modeling of crack by rotational spring is employed to detect a crack with straight front in different orientations in a section of straight horizontal steel hollow pipe (outer diameter 0.0378 m and inner diameter 0.0278 m). Crack orientations in the range 0-60° with the vertical have been examined and sizes/depths in the range 1-4 mm through the wall of thickness 5 mm have been studied. Variation of rotational spring stiffness with crack size and orientation has been obtained experimentally by deflection and vibration methods. The spring stiffness reduces as expected, with an increase in crack size; it increases with an increase in the crack orientation angle. The crack location has been predicted with a maximum error of 7.29%. The sensitivity of the method for prediction of crack location on variations in experimental data has been examined by changing the difference between the frequencies of pipes with and without crack by ±10%. The method is found to be very robust; the maximum variation in location is 2.68%, which is much less than the change in frequency difference introduced.

Potential role of salinity in ENSO and MJO predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J.; Kumar, A.; Murtugudde, R. G.; Xie, P.

2017-12-01

Studies have suggested that ocean salinity can vary in response to ENSO and MJO. For example, during an El Niño event, sea surface salinity decreases in the western and central equatorial Pacific, as a result of zonal advection of low salinity water by anomalous eastward surface currents, and to a lesser extent as a result of a rainfall excess associated with atmospheric convection and warm water displacements. However, the effect of salinity on ENSO and MJO evolutions and their forecasts has been less explored. In this analysis, we explored the potential role of salinity in ENSO and MJO predictions by conducting sensitivity experiments with NCEP CFSv2. Firstly, two forecasts experiments are conducted to explore its effect on ENSO predictions, in which the interannual variability of salinity in the ocean initial states is either included or excluded. Comparisons suggested that the salinity variability is essential to correctly forecast the 2007/08 La Niña starting from April 2007. With realistic salinity initial states, the tendency to decay of the subsurface cold condition during the spring and early summer 2007 was interrupted by positive salinity anomalies in the upper central Pacific, which working together with the Bjerknes positive feedback, contributed to the development of the La Niña event. Our study suggests that ENSO forecasts will benefit from more accurate sustained salinity observations having large-scale spatial coverage. We also assessed the potential role of salinity in MJO by evaluating a long coupled free run that has a relatively realistic MJO simulation and a set of predictability experiment, both based on CFSv2. Diagnostics of the free run suggest that, while the intraseasonal SST variations lead convections by a quarter cycle, they are almost in phase only with changes in barrier layer thickness, thereby suggesting an active role of salinity on SST. Its effect on MJO predictions is further explored by controlling the surface salinity feedback during the predictability experiments.

Strategic Insights. Volume 10, Issue 1, Spring 2011

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

stated, Chinn and Frankel put the exact year as 1872. Table 1 shows that the United States had the largest economy and the fastest rate of growth...The system attempted to lower trade barriers by reconciling exchange rate stability and domestic economic autonomy by creating an explicit code of...Monetary Fund website, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/index.aspx, (accessed June 3, 2010). 41 Michael Mussa, " Exchange Rate

200-BP-1 Prototype Hanford Barrier Annual Monitoring Report for Fiscal Year 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, Andy L.; Linville, Jenifer K.; Keller, Jason M.

2005-01-03

In FY 2004, monitoring of the prototype Hanford barrier focused on barrier stability, vegetative cover, evidence of plant and animal intrusion, and the main components of the water balance. Monitored water-balance components included precipitation, runoff, storage, drainage, and deep percolation. Precipitation in FY 2004 was 26 percent less than in FY 2003 but was still higher than normal. The seasonal distribution in precipitation was also different from the previous year with a 43 percent reduction in spring precipitation and a 46 percent increase in summer precipitation. The cumulative amount of water received from October 1994, through September 2004, was 2,559.58more » mm on the northern half of the barrier, which is the formerly irrigated treatment, and 1,886.71 mm on the southern non-irrigated treatments. Water storage continued to show a cyclic pattern, increasing in the winter and declining in the spring and summer to a lower limit of about 100 mm in response to evapotranspiration. The 600-mm design storage has never been exceeded. Total drainage from the soil-covered plots range from 2.9E-4 mm to 0.22 mm or 0.003 6 0.004 percent of precipitation. Side-slope drainage was much higher at 20.9 6 2.3 percent of precipitation from the gravel and 18.6 6 5.1 percent from the riprap. There was no runoff from the barrier, but runoff from the BY tank farm following a thunderstorm in May eroded a 45-inch-deep channel into the structural fill at the toe of the riprap slope. Above-asphalt and below-asphalt moisture measurements show no evidence of deep percolation of water. Topographic surveys were conducted on the barrier surface, including the two settlement gauges and 12 creep gauges on the riprap slope using aerial photogrammetry (AP) and a global positioning system (GPS). Comparing the aerial photogrammetry (AP) and global positioning system (GPS) surveys with the traditional survey shows the barrier and side slopes to be stable. Both AP and GPS show potential for considerable cost savings without any loss in accuracy. A relatively high coverage of native plants still persists after the initial revegetation in 1994. The formerly irrigated treatments continue to show greater cover of grasses and litter than the non-irrigated treatments. On the formerly irrigated treatments, the mean cover class was 25 to 50 percent for both grasses and shrubs. On the non-irrigated treatments, the mean cover class was 5 to 25 percent from grasses and 25 to 50 percent for shrubs. Species diversity of the vegetative community appears to have stabilized over the past several years. In addition to 12 of 17 species present in 2003 being present in 2004, two additional species were encountered. Sagebrush continues to flourish with shrubs along the perimeter showing higher biomass yield than the interior shrubs. There is evidence of sagebrush seedlings recruitment but not of rabbitbrush; the presence of gray rabbitbrush appears is declining as the barrier surface continues to stabilize. Use of the barrier surface by insects and small mammals is also evident. Small mammal burrowing on the barrier surface has become more prevalent in recent years, suggesting that the restored barrier surface is beginning to function as a recovering ecosystem. Small-mammal burrowing on the top and sides of the barrier is most prevalent on the finer-grained and disturbed soils while active ant mounds were observed on the northern and western slopes.« less

Bifurcation of potential vorticity gradients across the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, Jonathan; Bodeker, Greg; Cameron, Chris

2018-06-01

The wintertime stratospheric westerly winds circling the Antarctic continent, also known as the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex, create a barrier to mixing of air between middle and high latitudes. This dynamical isolation has important consequences for export of ozone-depleted air from the Antarctic stratosphere to lower latitudes. The prevailing view of this dynamical barrier has been an annulus compromising steep gradients of potential vorticity (PV) that create a single semi-permeable barrier to mixing. Analyses presented here show that this barrier often displays a bifurcated structure where a double-walled barrier exists. The bifurcated structure manifests as enhanced gradients of PV at two distinct latitudes - usually on the inside and outside flanks of the region of highest wind speed. Metrics that quantify the bifurcated nature of the vortex have been developed and their variation in space and time has been analysed. At most isentropic levels between 395 and 850 K, bifurcation is strongest in mid-winter and decreases dramatically during spring. From August onwards a distinct structure emerges, where elevated bifurcation remains between 475 and 600 K, and a mostly single-walled barrier occurs at other levels. While bifurcation at a given level evolves from month to month, and does not always persist through a season, interannual variations in the strength of bifurcation display coherence across multiple levels in any given month. Accounting for bifurcation allows the region of reduced mixing to be better characterised. These results suggest that improved understanding of cross-vortex mixing requires consideration of the polar vortex not as a single mixing barrier but as a barrier with internal structure that is likely to manifest as more complex gradients in trace gas concentrations across the vortex barrier region.

Exploring Winter Community Participation Among Wheelchair Users: An Online Focus Group

PubMed Central

Ripat, Jacquie; Colatruglio, Angela

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The aim of this qualitative study was to gain an understanding of what people who use wheeled mobility devices (WMDs; e.g., manual and power wheelchairs, and scooters) identify as environmental barriers to community participation in cold weather climates, and to explore recommendations to overcome environmental barriers to community participation. Researchers conducted an online asynchronous focus group that spanned seven days, with eight individuals who use WMDs. Each day, participants were asked to respond to a moderator-provided question, and to engage with one another around the topic area. The researchers analyzed the verbatim data using an inductive content-analysis approach. Four categories emerged from the data: (1) winter barriers to community participation; (2) life resumes in spring and summer; (3) change requires awareness, education, and advocacy; and (4) winter participation is a right. Participants confirmed that it is a collective responsibility to ensure that WMD users are able to participate in the community throughout the seasons. PMID:26295488

Measured flow and tracer-dye data for spring 1996 and 1997 for the south Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oltmann, Richard N.

1999-01-01

During the spring of years when the flow of the San Joaquin River is less than 7,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) a temporary rock barrier is installed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) at the head of Old River (HOR) in the south Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to prevent out migrating salmon in the San Joaquin River from entering Old River and being drawn to the State and federal pumping facilities (Figure 1). The export rate of the pumping facilities also is reduced during these migration periods to minimize the draw of fish to the export facilities through the other channels connected to the San Joaquin River north of the HOR such as Turner Cut, Columbia Cut, and Middle River.

Longleaf pine cone collection on the Sabine National Forest during October 2014

Treesearch

George F. Weick; Earlene Bracy Jackson; Robert Smith; James Crooks; Barbara Crane; James M. Guldin

2017-01-01

Longleaf pine is known as an unpredictable seed producer, with adequate or better seed crops occurring once every 5 years or longer. However, in the spring before seed fall, good cone crops can be predicted by visually counting green cones in the canopy, which by then are large enough to be seen, especially when binoculars of suitable power are used. During the spring...

How early can the seeding dates of spring wheat be under current and future climate in Saskatchewan, Canada?

PubMed

He, Yong; Wang, Hong; Qian, Budong; McConkey, Brian; DePauw, Ron

2012-01-01

Shorter growing season and water stress near wheat maturity are the main factors that presumably limit the yield potential of spring wheat due to late seeding in Saskatchewan, Canada. Advancing seeding dates can be a strategy to help producers mitigate the impact of climate change on spring wheat. It is unknown, however, how early farmers can seed while minimizing the risk of spring frost damage and the soil and machinery constraints. This paper explores early seeding dates of spring wheat on the Canadian Prairies under current and projected future climate. To achieve this, (i) weather records from 1961 to 1990 were gathered at three sites with different soil and climate conditions in Saskatchewan, Canada; (ii) four climate databases that included a baseline (treated as historic weather climate during the period of 1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios (2040-2069) developed by the Canadian global climate model (GCM) with the forcing of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1); (iii) seeding dates of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under baseline and projected future climate were predicted. Compared with the historical record of seeding dates, the predicted seeding dates were advanced under baseline climate for all sites using our seeding date model. Driven by the predicted temperature increase of the scenarios compared with baseline climate, all climate change scenarios projected significantly earlier seeding dates than those currently used. Compared to the baseline conditions, there is no reduction in grain yield because precipitation increases during sensitive growth stages of wheat, suggesting that there is potential to shift seeding to an earlier date. The average advancement of seeding dates varied among sites and chosen scenarios. The Swift Current (south-west) site has the highest potential for earlier seeding (7 to 11 days) whereas such advancement was small in the Melfort (north-east, 2 to 4 days) region. The extent of projected climate change in Saskatchewan indicates that growers in this region have the potential of earlier seeding. The results obtained in this study may be used for adaptation assessments of seeding dates under possible climate change to mitigate the impact of potential warming.

Predicted effects of proposed new regulation plans on sedge/grass meadows of Lake Ontario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilcox, D.A.; Xie, Y.

2008-01-01

Previously described models for predicting the percent of Lake Ontario wetlands that would be occupied by sedge/grass-dominated meadow marsh were used to test four proposed new plans for regulation of lake levels and to make comparisons with the current plan and unregulated conditions. The models for drowned river mouth, barrier beach, open embayment, and protected embayment wetlands assessed responses to lake levels that would be generated by each plan under net total supplies modified from those that occurred from1900 to 2000. In years when reduced supplies would allow meadow marsh regeneration, simulated unregulated lake levels produced the most meadow marsh in all wetland geomorphic types; current Plan 1958DD produced the least. Overall predicted percent meadow marsh under the test plans decreased in the order B+, 2007, D+, and A+, and the latter three plans produced rather similar results in many cases. Lower percentages of meadow marsh under some plans were due to insufficient low lake levels that could allow soils to dry and restrict invasion by cattails, as well as lack of periodic high lake levels that could kill invading upland plants. An assessment of seasonal lake-level characteristics demonstrated that Plan 2007 would reduce mean winter lake levels by 13 cm or more than Plan B+ and springtime lake levels by more than 10 cm. These seasonal differences could result in less winter habitat for muskrats and reduced access to spring spawning habitats for fish such as northern pike. Our model results provide important information for use in the process of selecting a new regulation plan for Lake Ontario.

Seasonal and regional differentiation of bio-optical properties within the north polar Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stramska, Malgorzata; Stramski, Dariusz; Kaczmarek, SłAwomir; Allison, David B.; Schwarz, Jill

2006-08-01

Using field data from the north polar Atlantic, we examined seasonal variability of the spectral absorption, a(λ), and backscattering, bb(λ), coefficients of surface waters in relation to phytoplankton pigments. For a given chlorophyll a concentration, the concentrations of accessory pigments were lower in spring than in summer. This effect contributed to lower chlorophyll-specific absorption of phytoplankton and total particulate matter in spring. The spring values of the green-to-blue band ratio of a(λ) were higher than the summer ratios. The blue-to-green ratios of bb(λ) were also higher in spring. The higher bb values and lower blue-to-green bb ratios in summer were likely associated with higher concentrations of detrital particles in summer compared to spring. Because the product of these band ratios of a and bb is a proxy for the blue-to-green ratio of remote-sensing reflectance, the performance of ocean color band-ratio algorithms for estimating pigments is significantly affected by seasonal shifts in the relationships between absorption, backscattering, and chlorophyll a. Our results suggest that the algorithm for the spring season would predict chlorophyll a that is higher by as much as a factor of 4-6 compared to that predicted from the summer algorithm. This indicates a need for a seasonal approach in the north polar Atlantic. However, we also found that a fairly good estimate of the particulate beam attenuation coefficient at 660 nm (a proxy for total particulate matter or particulate organic carbon concentration) can be obtained by applying a single blue-to-green band-ratio algorithm regardless of the season.

The impact of winter and spring temperatures on temperate tree budburst dates: results from an experimental climate manipulation.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Campioli, Matteo; Deckmyn, Gaby; Janssens, Ivan A

2012-01-01

Budburst phenology is a key driver of ecosystem structure and functioning, and it is sensitive to global change. Both cold winter temperatures (chilling) and spring warming (forcing) are important for budburst. Future climate warming is expected to have a contrasting effect on chilling and forcing, and subsequently to have a non-linear effect on budburst timing. To clarify the different effects of warming during chilling and forcing phases of budburst phenology in deciduous trees, (i) we conducted a temperature manipulation experiment, with separate winter and spring warming treatments on well irrigated and fertilized saplings of beech, birch and oak, and (ii) we analyzed the observations with five temperature-based budburst models (Thermal Time model, Parallel model, Sequential model, Alternating model, and Unified model). The results show that both winter warming and spring warming significantly advanced budburst date, with the combination of winter plus spring warming accelerating budburst most. As expected, all three species were more sensitive to spring warming than to winter warming. Although the different chilling requirement, the warming sensitivity was not significantly different among the studied species. Model evaluation showed that both one- and two- phase models (without and with chilling, respectively) are able to accurately predict budburst. For beech, the Sequential model reproduced budburst dates best. For oak and birch, both Sequential model and the Thermal Time model yielded good fit with the data but the latter was slightly better in case of high parameter uncertainty. However, for late-flushing species, the Sequential model is likely be the most appropriate to predict budburst data in a future warmer climate.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

Single-Cell-Genomics-Facilitated Read Binning of Candidate Phylum EM19 Genomes from Geothermal Spring Metagenomes.

PubMed

Becraft, Eric D; Dodsworth, Jeremy A; Murugapiran, Senthil K; Ohlsson, J Ingemar; Briggs, Brandon R; Kanbar, Jad; De Vlaminck, Iwijn; Quake, Stephen R; Dong, Hailiang; Hedlund, Brian P; Swingley, Wesley D

2016-02-15

The vast majority of microbial life remains uncatalogued due to the inability to cultivate these organisms in the laboratory. This "microbial dark matter" represents a substantial portion of the tree of life and of the populations that contribute to chemical cycling in many ecosystems. In this work, we leveraged an existing single-cell genomic data set representing the candidate bacterial phylum "Calescamantes" (EM19) to calibrate machine learning algorithms and define metagenomic bins directly from pyrosequencing reads derived from Great Boiling Spring in the U.S. Great Basin. Compared to other assembly-based methods, taxonomic binning with a read-based machine learning approach yielded final assemblies with the highest predicted genome completeness of any method tested. Read-first binning subsequently was used to extract Calescamantes bins from all metagenomes with abundant Calescamantes populations, including metagenomes from Octopus Spring and Bison Pool in Yellowstone National Park and Gongxiaoshe Spring in Yunnan Province, China. Metabolic reconstruction suggests that Calescamantes are heterotrophic, facultative anaerobes, which can utilize oxidized nitrogen sources as terminal electron acceptors for respiration in the absence of oxygen and use proteins as their primary carbon source. Despite their phylogenetic divergence, the geographically separate Calescamantes populations were highly similar in their predicted metabolic capabilities and core gene content, respiring O2, or oxidized nitrogen species for energy conservation in distant but chemically similar hot springs. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Later springs green-up faster: the relation between onset and completion of green-up in deciduous forests of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klosterman, Stephen; Hufkens, Koen; Richardson, Andrew D.

2018-05-01

In deciduous forests, spring leaf phenology controls the onset of numerous ecosystem functions. While most studies have focused on a single annual spring event, such as budburst, ecosystem functions like photosynthesis and transpiration increase gradually after budburst, as leaves grow to their mature size. Here, we examine the "velocity of green-up," or duration between budburst and leaf maturity, in deciduous forest ecosystems of eastern North America. We use a diverse data set that includes 301 site-years of phenocam data across a range of sites, as well as 22 years of direct ground observations of individual trees and 3 years of fine-scale high-frequency aerial photography, both from Harvard Forest. We find a significant association between later start of spring and faster green-up: - 0.47 ± 0.04 (slope ± 1 SE) days change in length of green-up for every day later start of spring within phenocam sites, - 0.31 ± 0.06 days/day for trees under direct observation, and - 1.61 ± 0.08 days/day spatially across fine-scale landscape units. To explore the climatic drivers of spring leaf development, we fit degree-day models to the observational data from Harvard Forest. We find that the default phenology parameters of the ecosystem model PnET make biased predictions of leaf initiation (39 days early) and maturity (13 days late) for red oak, while the optimized model has biases of 1 day or less. Springtime productivity predictions using optimized parameters are closer to results driven by observational data (within 1%) than those of the default parameterization (17% difference). Our study advances empirical understanding of the link between early and late spring phenophases and demonstrates that accurately modeling these transitions is important for simulating seasonal variation in ecosystem productivity.

Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

PubMed

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

2015-12-01

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Leadership as a predictor of stigma and practical barriers toward receiving mental health treatment: a multilevel approach.

PubMed

Britt, Thomas W; Wright, Kathleen M; Moore, Dewayne

2012-02-01

The present research examined positive and negative leadership behaviors as predictors of stigma and practical barriers to mental health treatment. Soldiers completed measures of noncommissioned officer (NCO) and officer leadership, stigma, and practical barriers to getting mental health treatment at 2, 3, and 4 months following a 15-month deployment to Afghanistan. The results revealed that positive and negative NCO and officer leader behaviors were predictive of overall stigma and barriers to care (collapsed across the three time periods), with only NCO positive and negative behaviors being uniquely predictive of stigma when included in the same model with officer behaviors. In addition, negative and positive NCO leader behaviors were predictive of stigma within participants over the course of the three month time period, and positive NCO leader behaviors were inversely related to practical barriers to mental health treatment within participants across the same time period. The results are discussed in terms of how different leader behaviors may be linked to different factors influencing a soldier's decision to seek mental health treatment.

Performance on Monitoring Basic Skills Progress--Computation Probes in First, Second, and Third Grade: Is It a Predictor of Pennsylvania System of School Assessment Mathematics Achievement in Third Grade?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Adelle C.

2017-01-01

This study examined the predictive relationship of a brief computation measure administered in the fall, winter, and spring of first, second, and third grade with the mathematic portion of a state-mandated academic achievement test administered in the spring of third grade. The relationship between mathematical achievement and resource…

Editorial Note

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degueldre, Claude; Gomez Briceño, Dolores; Fanghänel, Thomas; Warin, Dominique

2006-06-01

These proceedings provide papers that were presented at the Symposium N 'Nuclear Materials' of the EMRS Spring meeting 05, held from May 31 to June 2, 2005 at the Palais des Congrés in Strasbourg. The Symposium concerned materials that are applied in the nuclear environment and that are studied for their specific utilisation under demanding temperature, pressure and irradiation environments. Most of these materials act as barrier and their structural properties are investigated with emphasis on mechanical performances, reliability and long-term behaviour.

Vegetation studies, National Training Center, Fort Irwin, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, C.A.; Rickard, W.H.; Cadoret, N.A.

1997-09-01

During the spring of 1992, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted surveys of the Avawatz and Granite mountains springs for the National Training Center (NTC) to evaluate the occurrence of sensitive plant species in these areas. PNNL also conducted a survey of the eastern outwash of the Paradise Range for the occurrence of Lane Mountain milk vetch (Astragalus jaegerianus). In spring of 1993, PNNL conducted an additional study of Lane Mountain milk vetch on the NTC to determine habitat characteristics for this plant and to develop a method for predicting its potential occurrence, based on simple habitat attributes. Themore » results of these studies are itemized.« less

Effective Elastic Modulus as a Function of Angular Leaf Span for Curved Leaves of Pyrolytic Boron Nitride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaforey, M. L.; Deeb, C. W.; Matthiesen, D. H.

1999-01-01

A theoretical equation was derived to predict the spring constant (load/deflection) for a simply supported cylindrical section with a line force applied at the center. Curved leaves of PBN were mechanically deformed and the force versus deflection data was recorded and compared to the derived theoretical equation to yield an effective modulus for each leaf. The effective modulus was found to vary from the pure shear modulus for a flat plate to a mixed mode for a half cylinder as a function of the sine of one half the angular leaf span. The spring constants of individual PBN leaves were usually predicted to within 30%.

Flight Tests of the Turbulence Prediction and Warning System (TPAWS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, David W.; Proctor, Fred H.; Ahmad, Nashat N.

2012-01-01

Flight tests of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Turbulence Prediction And Warning System (TPAWS) were conducted in the Fall of 2000 and Spring of 2002. TPAWS is a radar-based airborne turbulence detection system. During twelve flights, NASA's B-757 tallied 53 encounters with convectively induced turbulence. Analysis of data collected during 49 encounters in the Spring of 2002 showed that the TPAWS Airborne Turbulence Detection System (ATDS) successfully detected 80% of the events at least 30 seconds prior to the encounter, achieving FAA recommended performance criteria. Details of the flights, the prevailing weather conditions, and each of the turbulence events are presented in this report. Sensor and environmental characterizations are also provided.

Metagenomic identification of active methanogens and methanotrophs in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy

PubMed Central

Thornton, Christopher N.; Hyer, Alex; Twing, Katrina I.; Longino, August A.; Lang, Susan Q.; Lilley, Marvin D.; Früh-Green, Gretchen L.; Schrenk, Matthew O.

2017-01-01

The production of hydrogen and methane by geochemical reactions associated with the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks can potentially support subsurface microbial ecosystems independent of the photosynthetic biosphere. Methanogenic and methanotrophic microorganisms are abundant in marine hydrothermal systems heavily influenced by serpentinization, but evidence for methane-cycling archaea and bacteria in continental serpentinite springs has been limited. This report provides metagenomic and experimental evidence for active methanogenesis and methanotrophy by microbial communities in serpentinite springs of the Voltri Massif, Italy. Methanogens belonging to family Methanobacteriaceae and methanotrophic bacteria belonging to family Methylococcaceae were heavily enriched in three ultrabasic springs (pH 12). Metagenomic data also suggest the potential for hydrogen oxidation, hydrogen production, carbon fixation, fermentation, and organic acid metabolism in the ultrabasic springs. The predicted metabolic capabilities are consistent with an active subsurface ecosystem supported by energy and carbon liberated by geochemical reactions within the serpentinite rocks of the Voltri Massif. PMID:28149702

FAST TRACK COMMUNICATION: Interlayer exchange coupling across a ferroelectric barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuravlev, M. Ye; Vedyayev, A. V.; Tsymbal, E. Y.

2010-09-01

A new magnetoelectric effect is predicted originating from the interlayer exchange coupling between two ferromagnetic layers separated by an ultrathin ferroelectric barrier. It is demonstrated that ferroelectric polarization switching driven by an external electric field leads to a sizable change in the interlayer exchange coupling. The effect occurs in asymmetric ferromagnet/ferroelectric/ferromagnet junctions due to a change in the electrostatic potential profile across the junction affecting the interlayer coupling. The predicted phenomenon indicates the possibility of switching the magnetic configuration by reversing the polarization of the ferroelectric barrier layer.

Hydrology of the North Cascades region, Washington: 2. A proposed hydrometeorological streamflow prediction method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.; Rasmussen, Lowell A.

1976-01-01

On the basis of a linear relationship between winter (October-April) precipitation and annual runoff from a drainage basin (Rasmussen and Tangborn, 1976) a physically reasonable model for predicting summer (May-September) streamflow from drainages in the North Cascades region was developed. This hydrometeorological prediction method relates streamflow for a season beginning on the day of prediction to the storage (including snow, ice, soil moisture, and groundwater) on that day. The spring storage is inferred from an input-output relationship based on the principle of conservation of mass: spring storage equals winter precipitation on the basin less winter runoff from the basin and less winter evapotranspiration, which is presumed to be small. The method of prediction is based on data only from the years previous to the one for which the prediction is made, and the system is revised each year as data for the previous year become available. To improve the basin storage estimate made in late winter or early spring, a short-season runoff prediction is made. The errors resulting from this short-term prediction are used to revise the storage estimate and improve the later prediction. This considerably improves the accuracy of the later prediction, especially for periods early in the summer runoff season. The optimum length for the test period appears to be generally less than a month for east side basins and between 1 and 2 months for those on the west side of the Cascade Range. The time distribution of the total summer runoff can be predicted when this test season is used so that on May 1 monthly streamflow for the May-September season can be predicted. It was found that summer precipitation and the time of minimum storage are two error sources that were amenable to analysis. For streamflow predictions in seasons beginning in early spring the deviation of the subsequent summer precipitation from a long-period average will contribute up to 53% of the prediction error. This contribution decreases to nearly zero during the summer and then rises slightly for late summer predictions. The reason for the smaller than expected effect of summer precipitation is thought to be due to the compensating effect of increased evaporative losses and increased infiltration when precipitation is greater than normal during the summer months. The error caused by the beginning winter month (assumed to be October in this study) not coinciding with the time of minimum storage was examined; it appears that October may be the best average beginning winter month for most drainages but that a more detailed study is needed. The optimum beginning of the winter season appears to vary from August to October when individual years are examined. These results demonstrate that standard precipitation and runoff measurements in the North Cascades region are adequate for constructing a predictive hydrologic model. This model can be used to make streamflow predictions that compare favorably with current multiple regression methods based on mountain snow surveys. This method has the added advantages of predicting the space and time distributions of storage and summer runoff.

Theory of planned behaviour variables and objective walking behaviour do not show seasonal variation in a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Williams, Stefanie L; French, David P

2014-02-05

Longitudinal studies have shown that objectively measured walking behaviour is subject to seasonal variation, with people walking more in summer compared to winter. Seasonality therefore may have the potential to bias the results of randomised controlled trials if there are not adequate statistical or design controls. Despite this there are no studies that assess the impact of seasonality on walking behaviour in a randomised controlled trial, to quantify the extent of such bias. Further there have been no studies assessing how season impacts on the psychological predictors of walking behaviour to date. The aim of the present study was to assess seasonal differences in a) objective walking behaviour and b) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) variables during a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking. 315 patients were recruited to a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking in primary care. A series of repeated measures ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the effect of season on pedometer measures of walking behaviour and TPB measures, assessed immediately post-intervention and six months later. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to assess whether season moderated the prediction of intention and behaviour by TPB measures. There were no significant differences in time spent walking in spring/summer compared to autumn/winter. There was no significant seasonal variation in most TPB variables, although the belief that there will be good weather was significantly higher in spring/summer (F = 19.46, p < .001). Season did not significantly predict intention or objective walking behaviour, or moderate the effects of TPB variables on intention or behaviour. Seasonality does not influence objectively measured walking behaviour or psychological variables during a randomised controlled trial. Consequently physical activity behaviour outcomes in trials will not be biased by the season in which they are measured. Previous studies may have overestimated the extent of seasonality effects by selecting the most extreme summer and winter months to assess PA. In addition, participants recruited to behaviour change interventions might have higher levels of motivation to change and are less affected by seasonal barriers. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95932902.

Calibrating the future highway safety manual predictive methods for Oregon state highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-01

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) was published by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in the spring of 2010. Volume 2 (Part C) of the HSM includes safety predictive methods which can be used to quantitativel...

Microbial ecology of two hot springs of Sikkim: Predominate population and geochemistry.

PubMed

Najar, Ishfaq Nabi; Sherpa, Mingma Thundu; Das, Sayak; Das, Saurav; Thakur, Nagendra

2018-10-01

Northeastern regions of India are known for their floral and faunal biodiversity. Especially the state of Sikkim lies in the eastern Himalayan ecological hotspot region. The state harbors many sulfur rich hot springs which have therapeutic and spiritual values. However, these hot springs are yet to be explored for their microbial ecology. The development of neo generation techniques such as metagenomics has provided an opportunity for inclusive study of microbial community of different environment. The present study describes the microbial diversity in two hot springs of Sikkim that is Polok and Borong with the assist of culture dependent and culture independent approaches. The culture independent techniques used in this study were next generation sequencing (NGS) and Phospholipid Fatty Acid Analysis (PLFA). Having relatively distinct geochemistry both the hot springs are thermophilic environments with the temperature range of 50-77 °C and pH range of 5-8. Metagenomic data revealed the dominance of bacteria over archaea. The most abundant phyla were Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes although other phyla were also present such as Acidobacteria, Nitrospirae, Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, Parcubacteria and Spirochaetes. The PLFA studies have shown the abundance of Gram Positive bacteria followed by Gram negative bacteria. The culture dependent technique was correlative with PLFA studies. Most abundant bacteria as isolated and identified were Gram-positive genus Geobacillus and Anoxybacillus. The genus Geobacillus has been reported for the first time in North-Eastern states of India. The Geobacillus species obtained from the concerned hot springs were Geobacillus toebii, Geobacillus lituanicus, Geobacillus Kaustophillus and the Anoxybacillus species includes Anoxybacillus gonensis and Anoxybacillus Caldiproteolyticus. The distribution of major genera and their statistical correlation analyses with the geochemistry of the springs predicted that the temperature, pH, alkalinity, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Cl 2+ , and sulfur were main environmental variables influencing the microbial community composition and diversity. Also the piper diagram suggested that the water of both the hot springs are Ca-HCO 3- type and can be predicted as shallow fresh ground waters. This study has provided an insight into the ecological interaction of the diverse microbial communities and associated physicochemical parameters, which will help in determining the future studies on different biogeochemical pathways in these hot springs. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Springs of Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. B. W.

1996-03-01

Predictably, in a country such as Britain, with its preponderance of consolidated, sedimentary, mainly fissure-flow aquifers, there is a very large number of springs, many of which are, or have been, used for public supply. Migratory springs are a feature of the British (Ur. Cretaceous) Chalk, the most important British aquifer. The Chalk's low specific yield and high capillary moisture retention together give rise to very considerable fluctuations (more than 33 m in some areas) of the unconfined water table. Along the gentle dip slopes of the Chalk (North and South Downs of southern and southeastern England) springs may migrate laterally for several miles, giving rise to seasonal streams locally known as “bournes” or “lavants”. However, springs such as at Duncton, West Sussex, at the base of the much steeper scarp slopes of the Chalk, form point sources, the flows from which tend to be relatively steady; such springs commonly supply and are the original reason for the existence of many of the small towns and villages which nestle along the bases of the chalk scarps of Sussex and Kent. Where the Chalk forms coastal cliffs, a number of springs break out at the base of the cliff between high and low tide levels; there are major chalk coastal springs, for instance, at St. Margaret's Bay (Kent) and at Arish Mells, east of Lulworth Cove, Dorset. Such springs are not used for direct supply (their salinity is usually too high) but are indicators of the presence of local reserves of groundwater for possible future development.

1988 Hanford riverbank springs characterization report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dirkes, R.L.

1990-12-01

This reports presents the results of a special study undertaken to characterize the riverbank springs (i.e., ground-water seepage) entering the Columbia River along the Hanford Site. Radiological and nonradiological analyses were performed. River water samples were also analyzed from upstream and downstream of the Site as well as from the immediate vicinity of the springs. In addition, irrigation return water and spring water entering the river along the shoreline opposite Hanford were analyzed. Hanford-origin contaminants were detected in spring water entering the Columbia River along the Hanford Site. The type and concentrations of contaminants in the spring water were similarmore » to those known to exist in the ground water near the river. The location and extent of the contaminated discharges compared favorably with recent ground-water reports and predictions. Spring discharge volumes remain very small relative to the flow of the Columbia. Downstream river sampling demonstrates the impact of ground-water discharges to be minimal, and negligible in most cases. Radionuclide concentrations were below US Department of Energy Derived Concentration Guides (DCGs) with the exception {sup 90}Sr near the 100-N Area. Tritium, while below the DCG, was detected at concentrations above the US Environmental Protection Agency drinking water standards in several springs. All other radionuclide concentrations were below drinking water standards. Nonradiological contaminants were generally undetectable in the spring water. River water contaminant concentrations, outside of the immediate discharge zones, were below drinking water standards in all cases. 19 refs., 5 figs., 12 tabs.« less

A prospective examination of exercise and barrier self-efficacy to engage in leisure-time physical activity during pregnancy.

PubMed

Cramp, Anita G; Bray, Steven R

2009-06-01

Pregnant women without medical contraindications should accumulate 30 min of moderate exercise on most days of the week, yet many pregnant women do not exercise at recommended levels. The purpose the study was to examine barriers to leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and investigate barrier and exercise self-efficacy as predictors of self-reported LTPA during pregnancy. Pregnant women (n = 160) completed questionnaires eliciting barriers to LTPA, measures of exercise and barrier self-efficacy, and 6-week LTPA recall at gestational weeks 18, 24, 30, and 36. A total of 1,168 barriers were content-analyzed, yielding nine major themes including fatigue, time constraints, and physical limitations. Exercise self-efficacy predicted LTPA from gestational weeks 18 to 24 (beta = 0.32, R(2) = 0.26) and weeks 30 to 36 (beta = 0.41, R(2) = 0.37), while barrier self-efficacy predicted LTPA from weeks 24 to 30 (beta = 0.40, R(2) = 0.32). Pregnant women face numerous barriers to LTPA during pregnancy, the nature of which may change substantially over the course of pregnancy. Higher levels of self-efficacy to exercise and to overcome exercise barriers are associated with greater LTPA during pregnancy. Research and interventions to understand and promote LTPA during pregnancy should explore the dynamic nature of exercise barriers and foster women's confidence to overcome physical activity barriers.

Estimation of deepwater temperature and hydrogeochemistry of springs in the Takab geothermal field, West Azerbaijan, Iran.

PubMed

Sharifi, Reza; Moore, Farid; Mohammadi, Zargham; Keshavarzi, Behnam

2016-01-01

Chemical analyses of water samples from 19 hot and cold springs are used to characterize Takab geothermal field, west of Iran. The springs are divided into two main groups based on temperature, host rock, total dissolved solids (TDS), and major and minor elements. TDS, electrical conductivity (EC), Cl(-), and SO4 (2-) concentrations of hot springs are all higher than in cold springs. Higher TDS in hot springs probably reflect longer circulation and residence time. The high Si, B, and Sr contents in thermal waters are probably the result of extended water-rock interaction and reflect flow paths and residence time. Binary, ternary, and Giggenbach diagrams were used to understand the deeper mixing conditions and locations of springs in the model system. It is believed that the springs are heated either by mixing of deep geothermal fluid with cold groundwater or low conductive heat flow. Mixing ratios are evaluated using Cl, Na, and B concentrations and a mass balance approach. Calculated quartz and chalcedony geothermometer give lower reservoir temperatures than cation geothermometers. The silica-enthalpy mixing model predicts a subsurface reservoir temperature between 62 and 90 °C. The δ(18)O and δD (δ(2)H) are used to trace and determine the origin and movement of water. Both hot and cold waters plot close to the local meteoric line, indicating local meteoric origin.

Preservation of Biological Information in Thermal Spring Deposits: Developing a Strategy for the Search for Fossil Life on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, M. R.; Des Marais, David J.

1993-01-01

Current interpretations of the early history of Mars suggest many similarities with the early Earth and therefore raise the possibility that the Archean and Proterozoic history of life on Earth could have a counterpart on Mars. Terrestrial experience suggests that, with techniques that can be employed remotely, ancient springs, including thermal springs, could well yield important information. By delivering water and various dissolved species to the sunlit surface of Mars, springs very likely created an environment suitable for life, which could have been difficult, if not impossible, to attain elsewhere. The chemical and temperature gradients associated with thermal springs sort organisms into sharply delineated, distinctive and different communities, and so diverse organisms are concentrated into relatively small areas in a predictable and informative fashion. A wide range of metabolic strategies are concentrated into small areas, thus furnishing a useful and representative sampling of the existing biota. Mineral-charged springwaters frequently deposit chemical precipitates of silica and/or carbonate which incorporate microorganisms and preserve them as fossils. The juxtaposition of stream valley headwaters with volcanoes and impact craters on Mars strongly implies that subsurface heating of groundwater created thermal springs. On Earth, thermal springs create distinctive geomorphic features and chemical signatures which can be detected by remote sensing. Spring deposits can be quite different chemically from adjacent rocks. Individual springs can be hundreds of meters wide, and complexes of springs occupy areas up to several kilometers wide. Benthic microbial mats and the resultant stromatolites occupy a large fraction of the available area. The relatively high densities of fossils and microbial mat fabrics within these deposits make them highly prospective in any search for morphological evidence of life, and there are examples of microbial fossils in spring deposits as old as 300 Myr.

Preservation of biological information in thermal spring deposits: developing a strategy for the search for fossil life on Mars.

PubMed

Walter, M R; Des Marais, D J

1993-01-01

Current interpretations of the early history of Mars suggest many similarities with the early Earth and therefore raise the possibility that the Archean and Proterozoic history of life on Earth could have a counterpart on Mars. Terrestrial experience suggests that, with techniques that can be employed remotely, ancient springs, including thermal springs, could well yield important information. By delivering water and various dissolved species to the sunlit surface of Mars, springs very likely created an environment suitable for life, which could have been difficult, if not impossible, to attain elsewhere. The chemical and temperature gradients associated with thermal springs sort organisms into sharply delineated, distinctive and different communities, and so diverse organisms are concentrated into relatively small areas in a predictable and informative fashion. A wide range of metabolic strategies are concentrated into small areas, thus furnishing a useful and representative sampling of the existing biota. Mineral-charged springwaters frequently deposit chemical precipitates of silica and/or carbonate which incorporate microorganisms and preserve them as fossils. The juxtaposition of stream valley headwaters with volcanoes and impact craters on Mars strongly implies that subsurface heating of groundwater created thermal springs. On Earth, thermal springs create distinctive geomorphic features and chemical signatures which can be detected by remote sensing. Spring deposits can be quite different chemically from adjacent rocks. Individual springs can be hundreds of meters wide, and complexes of springs occupy areas up to several kilometers wide. Benthic microbial mats and the resultant stromatolites occupy a large fraction of the available area. The relatively high densities of fossils and microbial mat fabrics within these deposits make them highly prospective in any search for morphological evidence of life, and there are examples of microbial fossils in spring deposits as old as 300 Myr.

Daily Variations in Spring Break Alcohol and Sexual Behaviors Based on Intentions, Perceived Norms, and Daily Trip Context

PubMed Central

Patrick, Megan E.; Lee, Christine M.

2012-01-01

Objective: Given the known risks of alcohol use and sexual behavior for college students on Spring Break, this study was designed to document the behaviors and correlates associated with being on a Spring Break trip on a given day (controlling for average time on a trip). Method: Participants were undergraduate students (n = 261; 55% women) who reported that they planned to go on a Spring Break trip. Web-based survey responses before and after Spring Break documented perceived norms, intentions, and actual behavior on each of the 10 days of Spring Break. Results: Students who went on longer trips, who previously engaged in more heavy episodic drinking, or who had greater pre–Spring Break intentions to drink reported greater alcohol use during Spring Break. Similarly, students with greater pre–Spring Break intentions to have sex, greater perceived norms for sex, or more previoussexual partners had greater odds of having sex. On days students were on trips, they had a greater likelihood of having sex, drinking to higher estimated blood alcohol concentrations, consuming more drinks, and reporting perceived drunkenness than on nontrip days, especially if they had intentions to have sex and drink alcohol (and, for models predicting sexual behavior and drunkenness, had greater perceived norms for sex and drinking). Conclusions: Students who went on Spring Break trips engaged in more risk behaviors. In addition, the context of being on a trip on a given day was associated with increased risk, especially if they had stronger intentions and, in some cases, higher perceived norms. Further research is needed to describe the contexts of Spring Break trips and how to intervene effectively. PMID:22630797

Acute gastric dilatation and volvulus in a free-living polar bear

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Nielsen, Carol A.

1989-01-01

A large, adult male polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was found dead on a barrier island north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (USA), in June 1987. There were no external signs of trauma. A twisted distended stomach, distinctive parenchymal and fascial congestion, and significant difficulty in repositioning the anterior abdominal organs, indicated that gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) was the proximate cause of death. Polar bears frequently consume large quantities of food at one time and have large stomachs that are well adapted to periodic gorging. The scarcity of food in winter and early spring, combined with voluntary fasting and protracted vigorous activity during the breeding season in late spring may have predisposed this bear to GDV. The relationship between GDV and postprandial exercise emphasizes the need for a better understanding of how the present human invasion of arctic habitats may influence polar bear activities.

A novel method for calculating the energy barriers for carbon diffusion in ferrite under heterogeneous stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchitchekova, Deyana S.; Morthomas, Julien; Ribeiro, Fabienne; Ducher, Roland; Perez, Michel

2014-07-01

A novel method for accurate and efficient evaluation of the change in energy barriers for carbon diffusion in ferrite under heterogeneous stress is introduced. This method, called Linear Combination of Stress States, is based on the knowledge of the effects of simple stresses (uniaxial or shear) on these diffusion barriers. Then, it is assumed that the change in energy barriers under a complex stress can be expressed as a linear combination of these already known simple stress effects. The modifications of energy barriers by either uniaxial traction/compression and shear stress are determined by means of atomistic simulations with the Climbing Image-Nudge Elastic Band method and are stored as a set of functions. The results of this method are compared to the predictions of anisotropic elasticity theory. It is shown that, linear anisotropic elasticity fails to predict the correct energy barrier variation with stress (especially with shear stress) whereas the proposed method provides correct energy barrier variation for stresses up to ˜3 GPa. This study provides a basis for the development of multiscale models of diffusion under non-uniform stress.

A novel method for calculating the energy barriers for carbon diffusion in ferrite under heterogeneous stress.

PubMed

Tchitchekova, Deyana S; Morthomas, Julien; Ribeiro, Fabienne; Ducher, Roland; Perez, Michel

2014-07-21

A novel method for accurate and efficient evaluation of the change in energy barriers for carbon diffusion in ferrite under heterogeneous stress is introduced. This method, called Linear Combination of Stress States, is based on the knowledge of the effects of simple stresses (uniaxial or shear) on these diffusion barriers. Then, it is assumed that the change in energy barriers under a complex stress can be expressed as a linear combination of these already known simple stress effects. The modifications of energy barriers by either uniaxial traction/compression and shear stress are determined by means of atomistic simulations with the Climbing Image-Nudge Elastic Band method and are stored as a set of functions. The results of this method are compared to the predictions of anisotropic elasticity theory. It is shown that, linear anisotropic elasticity fails to predict the correct energy barrier variation with stress (especially with shear stress) whereas the proposed method provides correct energy barrier variation for stresses up to ∼3 GPa. This study provides a basis for the development of multiscale models of diffusion under non-uniform stress.

Retention and recruitment of general dentists in an adjunct teaching model-A pilot study.

PubMed

Howe, Brian J; Allareddy, Verasathpurush; Barwacz, Christopher A; Parker, I Reed; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Holmes, David C

2017-01-01

Retention and recruitment of part time clinical adjunct faculty members in dental education is becoming increasingly difficult as dental schools come to rely on this workforce for their increased involvement in clinical education. Contributing factors include full time faculty shortage, aging workforce, practice and student debt, practice and family commitments, and financial compensation. This study attempts to ascertain barriers to teaching so appropriate strategies can be formulated to address this issue. In the spring of 2016 an email survey was sent to current and former adjunct faculty members to ascertain demographics and retention and recruitment strategies. Descriptive analyses were completed for all variables in the sample. Twenty nine of forty six subjects responded to the survey with a response rate of 63%. Subjects over the age of sixty comprised 55% with only 17% being under the age of forty five. Overall family and practice commitments along with compensation were the primary barriers to teaching part time. For new dentists, student loan debt was the primary barrier to teaching. Travel to teach was also a barrier as 70% of respondents drove 200 miles or less to the dental school. The study demonstrated that the aging part time work force is a great concern and new part time clinical adjunct faculty members must be recruited. Barriers to recruitment and retention of faculty must be considered and addressed to sustain this teaching model.

How Do Trees Know When to Flower? Predicting Reproductive Phenology of Douglas-fir with Changing Winter and Spring Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prevey, J.; St Clair, B.; Harrington, C.

2016-12-01

Flowering at the right time is one of the primary ways that plants are adapted to their environment. Trees that flower too early risk cold damage to vulnerable new tissues and those that flower too late miss peak resources or may mistime flowering to coincide with other trees, altering outcrossing rates and gene flow. Past observations indicate that temperature cues over winter and spring influence the timing of flowering in many tree species. Understanding these cues is important for predicting how flowering phenology of trees will change with a changing climate.We developed predictive models of flowering for Douglas-fir, an abundant and commercially important tree in the Pacific Northwest. We assembled over 10,000 flowering observations of trees from 11 sites across western Oregon and Washington. We modeled the dates of flowering using hourly temperature data; our models of flowering were adapted from previous models of vegetative budburst and height growth initiation developed for Douglas-fir. Preliminary results show that both chilling (cold) and forcing (warm) temperatures over winter and spring are important determinants of flowering time for Douglas-fir. This suggests that as spring temperatures warm in the future, Douglas-fir across the Pacific Northwest will flower earlier, unless plants experience insufficient chilling over winter, in which case it is possible that Douglas-fir may flower later than in the past, or not flower at all. At one site, Douglas-fir genotypes from different geographic regions flowered in the same order from year to year, indicating that both temperature and heredity influence flowering. Knowledge of the environmental and genetic cues that drive the timing of flowering can help predict how changes in temperature under various climate models could change flowering time across sites. These models may also indicate the geographic areas where future climate could enhance or reduce flowering of Douglas-fir in the future.

Predictability of two types of El Niño and their climate impacts in boreal spring to summer in coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ray Wai-Ki; Tam, Chi-Yung; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2017-12-01

The predictability of the two El Niño types and their different impacts on the East Asian climate from boreal spring to summer have been studied, based on coupled general circulation models (CGCM) simulations from the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast experiments. It was found that both the spatial pattern and temporal persistence of canonical (eastern Pacific type) El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) are much better simulated than those for El Niño Modoki (central Pacific type). In particular, most models tend to have El Niño Modoki events that decay too quickly, in comparison to those observed. The ability of these models in distinguishing between the two types of ENSO has also been assessed. Based on the MME average, the two ENSO types become less and less differentiated in the model environment as the forecast leadtime increases. Regarding the climate impact of ENSO, in spring during canonical El Niño, coupled models can reasonably capture the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western north Pacific (WNP)/Philippine Sea area, as well as rainfall over coastal East Asia. However, most models have difficulties in predicting the springtime dry signal over Indochina to South China Sea (SCS) when El Niño Modoki occurs. This is related to the location of the simulated anomalous anticyclone in this region, which is displaced eastward over SCS relative to the observed. In boreal summer, coupled models still exhibit some skills in predicting the East Asian rainfall during canonical El Nino, but not for El Niño Modoki. Overall, models' performance in spring to summer precipitation forecasts is dictated by their ability in capturing the low-level anticyclonic feature over the WNP/SCS area. The latter in turn is likely to be affected by the realism of the time mean monsoon circulation in models.

Ecology, distribution, and predictive occurrence modeling of Palmers chipmunk (Tamias palmeri): a high-elevation small mammal endemic to the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrey, Chris E.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Riddle, Brett R.; Mantooth, Stacy

2016-01-01

Although montane sky islands surrounded by desert scrub and shrub steppe comprise a large part of the biological diversity of the Basin and Range Province of southwestern North America, comprehensive ecological and population demographic studies for high-elevation small mammals within these areas are rare. Here, we examine the ecology and population parameters of the Palmer’s chipmunk (Tamias palmeri) in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada, and present a predictive GIS-based distribution and probability of occurrence model at both home range and geographic spatial scales. Logistic regression analyses and Akaike Information Criterion model selection found variables of forest type, slope, and distance to water sources as predictive of chipmunk occurrence at the geographic scale. At the home range scale, increasing population density, decreasing overstory canopy cover, and decreasing understory canopy cover contributed to increased survival rates.

Reductions in aggressive behavior within the context of a universal, social emotional learning program: Classroom- and student-level mechanisms.

PubMed

Portnow, Sam; Downer, Jason T; Brown, Joshua

2018-06-01

The present study uses data from 35 third through fifth-grade urban classrooms and 531 students to examine the extent to which student-level social and emotional skills (e.g., low hostile attribution bias and low aggressive interpersonal negotiation strategies) and emotionally supportive learning environments predict aggressive behavior over the course of a school year. Results of multiple regression analyses indicated that across teacher-reported measures of aggressive behavior, more classroom emotional support over the course of the school year predicted less aggressive behavior in spring, particularly for children whose hostile attribution bias decreased over the course of the year. According to a child-reported measure of aggressive behavior, declines in aggressive interpersonal negotiation strategies over the course of the year also predicted less aggressive behavior in spring. Moreover, these results operated similarly across all children. Implications for SEL programs are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Diffusion Barriers to Increase the Oxidative Life of Overlay Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.; Lei, Jih-Fen

1999-01-01

Currently, most blades and vanes in the hottest section of aero gas turbine engines require some type of coating for oxidation protection. Newly developed single crystal superalloys have the mechanical potential to operate at increasingly higher component temperatures. However, at these elevated temperatures, coating/substrate interdiffusion can shorten the protective life of the coating. Diffusion barriers between overlay coatings and substrates are being examined to extend the protective life of the coating. A previously- developed finite-difference diffusion model has been modified to predict the oxidative life enhancement due to use of a diffusion barrier. The original diffusion model, designated COSIM, simulates Al diffusion in the coating to the growing oxide scale as well as Al diffusion into the substrate. The COSIM model incorporates an oxide growth and spalling model to provide the rate of Al consumption during cyclic oxidation. Coating failure is predicted when the Al concentration at the coating surface drops to a defined critical level. The modified COSIM model predicts the oxidative life of an overlay coating when a diffusion barrier is present eliminating diffusion of Al from the coating into the substrate. Both the original and the modified diffusion models have been used to predict the effectiveness of a diffusion barrier in extending the protective life of a NiCrAl overlay coating undergoing cyclic oxidation at 1100 C.

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-12-01

In eastern East Africa (the southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia region), poor boreal spring (long wet season) rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent East African droughts to a stronger Walker circulation, resulting from warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increased east-to-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the western Pacific, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied to SST fluctuations in the western central Pacific and central Indian Ocean, respectively. Variations in these two rainfall modes can thus be predicted using two SST indices - the western Pacific gradient (WPG) and central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with our statistical forecasts exhibiting reasonable cross-validated skill (rcv ≈ 0.6). In contrast, the current generation of coupled forecast models show no skill during the long rains. Our SST indices also appear to capture most of the major recent drought events such as 2000, 2009 and 2011. Predictions based on these simple indices can be used to support regional forecasting efforts and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Predicting characteristics of rainfall driven estrogen runoff and transport from swine AFO spray fields.

PubMed

Lee, Boknam; Kullman, Seth W; Yost, Erin E; Meyer, Michael T; Worley-Davis, Lynn; Williams, C Michael; Reckhow, Kenneth H

2015-11-01

Animal feeding operations (AFOs) have been implicated as potentially major sources of estrogenic contaminants into the aquatic environment due to the relatively minimal treatment of waste and potential mobilization and transport of waste components from spray fields. In this study a Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to inform management decisions and better predict the transport and fate of natural steroidal estrogens from these sites. The developed BN model integrates processes of surface runoff and sediment loss with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) runoff model. What-if scenario simulations of lagoon slurry wastes to the spray fields were conducted for the most abundant natural estrogen estrone (E1) observed in the system. It was found that E1 attenuated significantly after 2 months following waste slurry application in both spring and summer seasons, with the overall attenuation rate predicted to be higher in the summer compared to the spring. Using simulations of rainfall events in conjunction with waste slurry application rates, it was predicted that the magnitude of E1 runoff loss is significantly higher in the spring as compared to the summer months, primarily due to spray field crop management plans. Our what-if scenario analyses suggest that planting Bermuda grass in the spray fields is likely to reduce runoff losses of natural estrogens near the water bodies and ecosystems, as compared to planting of soybeans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Characteristics of Rainfall Driven Estrogen Runoff and Transport from Swine AFO Spray Fields

PubMed Central

Lee, Boknam; Kullman, Seth W.; Yost, Erin E.; Meyer, Michael T.; Worley-Davis, Lynn; Williams, C. Michael; Reckhow, Kenneth H.

2017-01-01

Animal feeding operations (AFOs) have been implicated as potentially major sources of estrogenic contaminants into the aquatic environment due to the relatively minimal treatment of waste and potential mobilization and transport of waste components from spray fields. In this study a Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to inform management decisions and better predict the transport and fate of natural steroidal estrogens from these sites. The developed BN model integrates processes of surface runoff and sediment loss with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) runoff model. What-if scenario simulations of lagoon slurry wastes to the spray fields were conducted for the most abundant natural estrogen estrone (E1) observed in the system. It was found that E1 attenuated significantly after 2 months following waste slurry application in both spring and summer seasons, with the overall attenuation rate predicted to be higher in the summer compared to the spring. Using simulations of rainfall events in conjunction with waste slurry application rates, it was predicted that the magnitude of E1 runoff loss is significantly higher in the spring as compared to the summer months, primarily due to spray field crop management plans. Our what-if scenario analyses suggest that planting Bermuda grass in the spray fields is likely to reduce runoff losses of natural estrogens near the water bodies and ecosystems, as compared to planting of soybeans. PMID:26102057

Application of dimensionless sediment rating curves to predict suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, and annual sediment loads for rivers in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Groten, Joel T.; Lorenz, David L.; Koller, Karl S.

2016-10-27

Consistent and reliable sediment data are needed by Federal, State, and local government agencies responsible for monitoring water quality, planning river restoration, quantifying sediment budgets, and evaluating the effectiveness of sediment reduction strategies. Heightened concerns about excessive sediment in rivers and the challenge to reduce costs and eliminate data gaps has guided Federal and State interests in pursuing alternative methods for measuring suspended and bedload sediment. Simple and dependable data collection and estimation techniques are needed to generate hydraulic and water-quality information for areas where data are unavailable or difficult to collect.The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed a study to evaluate the use of dimensionless sediment rating curves (DSRCs) to accurately predict suspended-sediment concentrations (SSCs), bedload, and annual sediment loads for selected rivers and streams in Minnesota based on data collected during 2007 through 2013. This study included the application of DSRC models developed for a small group of streams located in the San Juan River Basin near Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado to rivers in Minnesota. Regionally based DSRC models for Minnesota also were developed and compared to DSRC models from Pagosa Springs, Colorado, to evaluate which model provided more accurate predictions of SSCs and bedload in Minnesota.Multiple measures of goodness-of-fit were developed to assess the effectiveness of DSRC models in predicting SSC and bedload for rivers in Minnesota. More than 600 dimensionless ratio values of SSC, bedload, and streamflow were evaluated and delineated according to Pfankuch stream stability categories of “good/fair” and “poor” to develop four Minnesota-based DSRC models. The basis for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota DSRC model effectiveness was founded on measures of goodness-of-fit that included proximity of the model(s) fitted line to the 95-percent confidence intervals of the site-specific model, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, model biases, and deviation of annual sediment loads from each model to the annual sediment loads calculated from measured data.Composite plots comparing Pagosa Springs DSRCs, Minnesota DSRCs, site-specific regression models, and measured data indicated that regionally developed DSRCs (Minnesota DSRC models) more closely approximated measured data for nearly every site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models had markedly larger exponents (slopes) when compared to the Minnesota DSRC models and the site-specific regression models, and over-represent SSC and bedload at streamflows exceeding bankfull. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for the Minnesota DSRC model for suspended-sediment concentrations closely matched Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of the site-specific regression models for 12 out of 16 sites. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values associated with Minnesota DSRCs were greater than those associated with Pagosa Springs DSRCs for every site except the Whitewater River near Beaver, Minnesota site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models were less accurate than the mean of the measured data at predicting SSC values for one-half of the sites for good/fair stability sites and one-half of the sites for poor stability sites. Relative model biases were calculated and determined to be substantial (greater than 5 percent) for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota models, with Minnesota models having a lower mean model bias. For predicted annual suspended-sediment loads (SSL), the Minnesota DSRC models for good/fair and poor stream stability sites more closely approximated the annual SSLs calculated from the measured data as compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC model.Results of data analyses indicate that DSRC models developed using data collected in Minnesota were more effective at compensating for differences in individual stream characteristics across a variety of basin sizes and flow regimes than DSRC models developed using data collected for Pagosa Springs, Colorado. Minnesota DSRC models retained a substantial portion of the unique sediment signatures for most rivers, although deviations were observed for streams with limited sediment supply and for rivers in southeastern Minnesota, which had markedly larger regression exponents. Compared to Pagosa Springs DSRC models, Minnesota DSRC models had regression slopes that more closely matched the slopes of site-specific regression models, had greater Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, had lower model biases, and approximated measured annual sediment loads more closely. The results presented in this report indicate that regionally based DSRCs can be used to estimate reasonably accurate values of SSC and bedload.Practitioners are cautioned that DSRC reliability is dependent on representative measures of bankfull streamflow, SSC, and bedload. It is, therefore, important that samples of SSC and bedload, which will be used for estimating SSC and bedload at the bankfull streamflow, are collected over a range of conditions that includes the ascending and descending limbs of the event hydrograph. The use of DSRC models may have substantial limitations for certain conditions. For example, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC and sediment loads for extreme streamflows, such as those that exceed twice the bankfull streamflow value because this constitutes conditions beyond the realm of current (2016) empirical modeling capability. Also, if relations between SSC and streamflow and between bedload and streamflow are not statistically significant, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC or bedload, as this could result in large errors. For streams that do not violate these conditions, DSRC estimates of SSC and bedload can be used for stream restoration planning and design, and for estimating annual sediment loads for streams where little or no sediment data are available.

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.

Taxonomic and functional characteristics of microbial communities and their correlation with physicochemical properties of four geothermal springs in Odisha, India

PubMed Central

Badhai, Jhasketan; Ghosh, Tarini S.; Das, Subrata K.

2015-01-01

This study describes microbial diversity in four tropical hot springs representing moderately thermophilic environments (temperature range: 40–58°C; pH: 7.2–7.4) with discrete geochemistry. Metagenome sequence data showed a dominance of Bacteria over Archaea; the most abundant phyla were Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria, although other phyla were also present, such as Acetothermia, Nitrospirae, Acidobacteria, Firmicutes, Deinococcus-Thermus, Bacteroidetes, Thermotogae, Euryarchaeota, Verrucomicrobia, Ignavibacteriae, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, Spirochaetes, Armatimonadetes, Crenarchaeota, and Aquificae. The distribution of major genera and their statistical correlation analyses with the physicochemical parameters predicted that the temperature, aqueous concentrations of ions (such as sodium, chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate), total hardness, dissolved solids and conductivity were the main environmental variables influencing microbial community composition and diversity. Despite the observed high taxonomic diversity, there were only little variations in the overall functional profiles of the microbial communities in the four springs. Genes involved in the metabolism of carbohydrates and carbon fixation were the most abundant functional class of genes present in these hot springs. The distribution of genes involved in carbon fixation predicted the presence of all the six known autotrophic pathways in the metagenomes. A high prevalence of genes involved in membrane transport, signal transduction, stress response, bacterial chemotaxis, and flagellar assembly were observed along with genes involved in the pathways of xenobiotic degradation and metabolism. The analysis of the metagenomic sequences affiliated to the candidate phylum Acetothermia from spring TB-3 provided new insight into the metabolism and physiology of yet-unknown members of this lineage of bacteria. PMID:26579081

Taxonomic and functional characteristics of microbial communities and their correlation with physicochemical properties of four geothermal springs in Odisha, India.

PubMed

Badhai, Jhasketan; Ghosh, Tarini S; Das, Subrata K

2015-01-01

This study describes microbial diversity in four tropical hot springs representing moderately thermophilic environments (temperature range: 40-58°C; pH: 7.2-7.4) with discrete geochemistry. Metagenome sequence data showed a dominance of Bacteria over Archaea; the most abundant phyla were Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria, although other phyla were also present, such as Acetothermia, Nitrospirae, Acidobacteria, Firmicutes, Deinococcus-Thermus, Bacteroidetes, Thermotogae, Euryarchaeota, Verrucomicrobia, Ignavibacteriae, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, Spirochaetes, Armatimonadetes, Crenarchaeota, and Aquificae. The distribution of major genera and their statistical correlation analyses with the physicochemical parameters predicted that the temperature, aqueous concentrations of ions (such as sodium, chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate), total hardness, dissolved solids and conductivity were the main environmental variables influencing microbial community composition and diversity. Despite the observed high taxonomic diversity, there were only little variations in the overall functional profiles of the microbial communities in the four springs. Genes involved in the metabolism of carbohydrates and carbon fixation were the most abundant functional class of genes present in these hot springs. The distribution of genes involved in carbon fixation predicted the presence of all the six known autotrophic pathways in the metagenomes. A high prevalence of genes involved in membrane transport, signal transduction, stress response, bacterial chemotaxis, and flagellar assembly were observed along with genes involved in the pathways of xenobiotic degradation and metabolism. The analysis of the metagenomic sequences affiliated to the candidate phylum Acetothermia from spring TB-3 provided new insight into the metabolism and physiology of yet-unknown members of this lineage of bacteria.

Evaluation of land surface model representation of phenology: an analysis of model runs submitted to the NACP Interim Site Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, A. D.; Nacp Interim Site Synthesis Participants

2010-12-01

Phenology represents a critical intersection point between organisms and their growth environment. It is for this reason that phenology is a sensitive and robust integrator of the biological impacts of year-to-year climate variability and longer-term climate change on natural systems. However, it is perhaps equally important that phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating ecosystem processes, competitive interactions, and feedbacks to the climate system. Unfortunately, the phenological sub-models implemented in most state-of-the-art ecosystem models and land surface schemes are overly simplified. We quantified model errors in the representation of the seasonal cycles of leaf area index (LAI), gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange of CO2. Our analysis was based on site-level model runs (14 different models) submitted to the North American Carbon Program (NACP) Interim Synthesis, and long-term measurements from 10 forested (5 evergreen conifer, 5 deciduous broadleaf) sites within the AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada networks. Model predictions of the seasonality of LAI and GEP were unacceptable, particularly in spring, and especially for deciduous forests. This is despite an historical emphasis on deciduous forest phenology, and the perception that controls on spring phenology are better understood than autumn phenology. Errors of up to 25 days in predicting “spring onset” transition dates were common, and errors of up to 50 days were observed. For deciduous sites, virtually every model was biased towards spring onset being too early, and autumn senescence being too late. Thus, models predicted growing seasons that were far too long for deciduous forests. For most models, errors in the seasonal representation of deciduous forest LAI were highly correlated with errors in the seasonality of both GPP and NEE, indicating the importance of getting the underlying canopy dynamics correct. Most of the models in this comparison were unable to successfully predict the observed interannual variability in either spring or autumn transition dates. And, perhaps surprisingly, the seasonal cycles of models using phenology prescribed by remote sensing observations was, in general, no better than that that predicted by models with prognostic phenology. Reasons for the poor performance of both approaches will be discussed. These results highlight the need for improved understanding of the environmental controls on vegetation phenology. Existing models are unlikely to accurately predict future responses of phenology to climate change, and therefore will misrepresent the seasonality of key biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks and interactions in coupled model runs. New data sets, as for example from webcam-based monitoring networks (e.g. PhenoCam) or citizen science efforts (USA National Phenology Network) should prove valuable in this regard.

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Flocks, James; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Long, Joseph W.; Guy, Kristy K.; Thompson, David M.; Cormier, Jamie M.; Smith, Christopher G.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2014-01-01

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Flocks, James; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Long, Joseph W.; Guy, Kristy; Thompson, David M.; Cormier, Jamie M.; Smith, Christopher G.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2014-02-01

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Parallel noise barrier prediction procedure : report 2 user's manual revision 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-11-01

This report defines the parameters which are used to input the data required to run Program Barrier and BarrierX on a microcomputer such as an IBM PC or compatible. Directions for setting up and operating a working disk are presented. Examples of inp...

Cultural Resources Intensive Survey, With Testing, of the Millington, Naval Base Levee Construction Site, Millington Shelby County, Tennessee.

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

terraces, and fall and spring migratory waterfowl in areas of seasonally standing water . Hickory nuts thus appear to be the most strategic resource, * in...for agriculture . Such soils are difficult to work until late in the planting season, are subject to wet-year moisture damage to crops, and provide an...effective barrier to root growth during dry years. Prehistoric agricultural activities tend to focus on better-drained soils such as Collins, Memphis

A Cappella: A Report on the Realities, Concerns, Expectations and Barriers Experienced by Adolescent Women in Canada = A Cappella: Rapport sur les realites, preoccupations, attentes et obstacles que connaissent les adolescentes au Canada.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canadian Teachers' Federation, Ottawa (Ontario).

In the spring of 1990 a project was undertaken in Canada to document the major concerns and perceptions of adolescent women; to supplement the words of adolescent women with brief summaries of current knowledge; to use the words of adolescent women and the additional knowledge gathered to provide information to young women on issues which are of…

Flows in forward deformable roll coating gaps: Comparison between spring and plane-strain models of roll cover

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carvalho, M.S.; Scriven, L.E.

1997-12-01

In this report the flow between rigid and a deformable rotating rolls fully submerged in a liquid pool is studied. The deformation of compliant roll cover is described by two different models (1) independent, radially oriented springs that deform in response to the traction force applied at the extremity of each or one-dimensional model, and (2) a plane-strain deformation of an incompressible Mooney-Rivlin material or non-linear elastic model. Based on the flow rate predictions of both models, an empirical relation between the spring constant of the one dimensional model and the roll cover thickness and elastic modulus is proposed.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, J. T.; Sheffler, K. D.

1986-01-01

The objective of this program is to establish a methodology to predict Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involves experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. The coating being studied is a flight qualified two layer system, designated PWA 264, consisting of a nominal ten mil layer of seven percent yttria partially stabilized zirconia plasma deposited over a nominal five mil layer of low pressure plasma deposited NiCoCrAlY. Thermal barrier coating degradation modes being investigated include: thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, erosion, hot corrosion, and foreign object damage.

Masculinity impediments: Internalized masculinity contributes to healthcare avoidance in men and women.

PubMed

Himmelstein, Mary S; Sanchez, Diana T

2016-07-01

Gender beliefs contribute to men's healthcare avoidance, but little research examines these outcomes in women. This article models healthcare avoidance related to masculine contingencies of self-worth in men and women. Nested path modelling tested relationships between social role beliefs, masculine contingencies of self-worth, barriers to help seeking and avoidance of health care in university and non-university-student adult samples. Results indicated social role beliefs predicted masculine contingencies of self-worth in men but not in women. Regardless of gender, masculine contingencies of self-worth predicted barriers to help seeking, which predicted healthcare avoidance in both men and women. Thus, masculine contingencies of self-worth have downstream consequences for men and women through barriers to help seeking. © The Author(s) 2014.

Principals' Perceptions of Barriers to Dismissal of Poor-Performing Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dandoy, Jason R.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine which factors influence items that school principals consider "barriers" to dismissal of "incompetent" or "poor performing" teachers. This study determines if specific characteristics of schools, principals, or a combination of the two can predict the specific barriers cited…

The integration of geophysical and enhanced Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data into a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.; Brown, Jesslyn F.

2015-01-01

Cheatgrass exhibits spatial and temporal phenological variability across the Great Basin as described by ecological models formed using remote sensing and other spatial data-sets. We developed a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model trained on 99 points that used three data-sets – latitude, elevation, and start of season time based on remote sensing input data – to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth (BOSG) in the northern Great Basin. The model was then applied to map the location and timing of cheatgrass spring growth for the entire area. The model was strong (R2 = 0.85) and predicted an average cheatgrass BOSG across the study area of 29 March–4 April. Of early cheatgrass BOSG areas, 65% occurred at elevations below 1452 m. The highest proportion of cheatgrass BOSG occurred between mid-April and late May. Predicted cheatgrass BOSG in this study matched well with previous Great Basin cheatgrass green-up studies.

Evaluation and Application of Gridded Snow Water Equivalent Products for Improving Snowmelt Flood Predictions in the Red River Basin of the North

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, R.; Jacobs, J. M.; Vuyovich, C.; Cho, E.; Tuttle, S. E.

2017-12-01

Each spring the Red River basin (RRB) of the North, located between the states of Minnesota and North Dakota and southern Manitoba, is vulnerable to dangerous spring snowmelt floods. Flat terrain, low permeability soils and a lack of satisfactory ground observations of snow pack conditions make accurate predictions of the onset and magnitude of major spring flood events in the RRB very challenging. This study investigated the potential benefit of using gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) products from passive microwave satellite missions and model output simulations to improve snowmelt flood predictions in the RRB using NOAA's operational Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). Level-3 satellite SWE products from AMSR-E, AMSR2 and SSM/I, as well as SWE computed from Level-2 brightness temperatures (Tb) measurements, including model output simulations of SWE from SNODAS and GlobSnow-2 were chosen to support the snowmelt modeling exercises. SWE observations were aggregated spatially (i.e. to the NOAA North Central River Forecast Center forecast basins) and temporally (i.e. by obtaining daily screened and weekly unscreened maximum SWE composites) to assess the value of daily satellite SWE observations relative to weekly maximums. Data screening methods removed the impacts of snow melt and cloud contamination on SWE and consisted of diurnal SWE differences and a temperature-insensitive polarization difference ratio, respectively. We examined the ability of the satellite and model output simulations to capture peak SWE and investigated temporal accuracies of screened and unscreened satellite and model output SWE. The resulting SWE observations were employed to update the SNOW-17 snow accumulation and ablation model of CHPS to assess the benefit of using temporally and spatially consistent SWE observations for snow melt predictions in two test basins in the RRB.

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide in victims with and without prior history of hospitalization for mood disorders.

PubMed

Postolache, Teodor T; Mortensen, Preben B; Tonelli, Leonardo H; Jiao, Xiaolong; Frangakis, Constantin; Soriano, Joseph J; Qin, Ping

2010-02-01

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide are highly replicated, but their origin is poorly understood. As the peak of suicide in spring could be a consequence of decompensation of mood disorders in spring, we hypothesized that prior history of mood disorders is predictively associated with suicide in spring. We analyzed the monthly rates of suicide based upon all 37,987 suicide cases in the Danish Cause of Death Registry from 1970 to 2001. History of mood disorder was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register and socioeconomical data from the Integrated Database for Labour Market Research. The monthly rate ratio of suicide relative to December was estimated using a Poisson regression. Seasonality of suicide between individuals with versus without hospitalization for mood disorders was compared using conditional logistic regression analyses with adjustment for income, marital status, place of residence, and method of suicide. A statistically significant spring peak in suicide was observed in both groups. A history of mood disorders was associated with an increased risk of suicide in spring (for males: RR=1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.31; for females: RR=1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.32). History of axis II disorders was not analyzed. Danish socioeconomical realities have only limited generalizability. The results support the need to further investigate if exacerbation of mood disorders in spring triggers seasonal peaks of suicide. Identifying triggers for seasonal spring peaks in suicide may lead to uncovering novel risk factors and therapeutic targets for suicide prevention. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

African American Women's Perceptions on Access to Food and Water in Flint, Michigan.

PubMed

Mayfield, Kellie E; Carolan, Marsha; Weatherspoon, Lorraine; Chung, Kimberly R; Hoerr, Sharon M

2017-06-01

To explore the perceptions of food access by African American women in Flint, MI. Using womanist theory, in which African American women's experiential knowledge centered the analysis, 8 focus groups were conducted during fall/spring, 2014-2015. Seventeen mothers aged 21-50 years with children aged <18 years and 13 women aged >60 years comprised the groups. The high cost of water, poor availability of healthy foods in inner-city stores, and limited transportation were barriers to accessing healthy food. Conversely, receiving food from food giveaways, friends, and family, as well as access to transportation facilitated food access. These women also reported discriminatory experiences and diet-related health concerns. Participants were keenly aware of available free community resources and gender, racial, and income barriers to accessing them. Understanding these barriers and facilitators provides information to aid local food policy assistance decisions and inform community-based interventions, especially given the lead contamination of water and the purported importance of a healthy diet to sequester lead. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of spring phenology on seasonal and annual carbon balance in two contrasting New England forests.

PubMed

Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Dail, D Bryan; Lee, John T; Munger, J William; O'keefe, John

2009-03-01

Spring phenology is thought to exert a major influence on the carbon (C) balance of temperate and boreal ecosystems. We investigated this hypothesis using four spring onset phenological indicators in conjunction with surface-atmosphere CO(2) exchange data from the conifer-dominated Howland Forest and deciduous-dominated Harvard Forest AmeriFlux sites. All phenological measures, including CO(2) source-sink transition dates, could be well predicted on the basis of a simple two-parameter spring warming model, indicating good potential for improving the representation of phenological transitions and their dynamic responsiveness to climate variability in land surface models. The date at which canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity reached a threshold value of 12 micromol m(-2) s(-1) was better correlated with spring and annual flux integrals than were either deciduous or coniferous bud burst dates. For all phenological indicators, earlier spring onset consistently, but not always significantly, resulted in higher gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) for both seasonal (spring months, April-June) and annual flux integrals. The increase in RE was less than that in GPP; depending on the phenological indicator used, a one-day advance in spring onset increased springtime net ecosystem productivity (NEP) by 2-4 g C m(-2) day(-1). In general, we could not detect significant differences between the two forest types in response to earlier spring, although the response to earlier spring was generally more pronounced for Harvard Forest than for Howland Forest, suggesting that future climate warming may favor deciduous species over coniferous species, at least in this region. The effect of earlier spring tended to be about twice as large when annual rather than springtime flux integrals were considered. This result is suggestive of both immediate and lagged effects of earlier spring onset on ecosystem C cycling, perhaps as a result of accelerated N cycling rates and cascading effects on N uptake, foliar N concentrations and photosynthetic capacity.

Big Spring spinedace and associated fish populations and habitat conditions in Condor Canyon, Meadow Valley Wash, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jezorek, Ian G.; Connolly, Patrick J.; Munz, Carrie S.; Dixon, Chris

2011-01-01

Executive Summary: This project was designed to document habitat conditions and populations of native and non-native fish within the 8-kilometer Condor Canyon section of Meadow Valley Wash, Nevada, with an emphasis on Big Spring spinedace (Lepidomeda mollispinis pratensis). Other native fish present were speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus) and desert sucker (Catostomus clarki). Big Spring spinedace were known to exist only within this drainage and were known to have been extirpated from a portion of their former habitat located downstream of Condor Canyon. Because of this extirpation and the limited distribution of Big Spring spinedace, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed this species as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1985. Prior to our effort, little was known about Big Spring spinedace populations or life histories and habitat associations. In 2008, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey's Columbia River Research Laboratory began surveys of Meadow Valley Wash in Condor Canyon. Habitat surveys characterized numerous variables within 13 reaches, thermologgers were deployed at 9 locations to record water temperatures, and fish populations were surveyed at 22 individual sites. Additionally, fish were tagged with Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags, which allowed movement and growth information to be collected on individual fish. The movements of tagged fish were monitored with a combination of recapture events and stationary in-stream antennas, which detected tagged fish. Meadow Valley Wash within Condor Canyon was divided by a 12-meter (m) waterfall known as Delmue Falls. About 6,100 m of stream were surveyed downstream of the falls and about 2,200 m of stream were surveyed upstream of the falls. Although about three-quarters of the surveyed stream length was downstream of Delmue Falls, the highest densities and abundance of native fish were upstream of the falls. Big Spring spinedace and desert sucker populations were highest near the upper end of Condor Canyon, where a tributary known as Kill Wash, and several springs, contribute flow and moderate high and low water temperature. Kill Wash and the area around its confluence with Meadow Valley Wash appeared important for spawning of all three native species. Detections of PIT-tagged fish indicated that there were substantial movements to this area during the spring. Our surveys included about 700 m of Meadow Valley Wash upstream of Kill Wash. A small falls about 2 m high was about 560 m upstream of Kill Wash. This falls is likely a barrier to upstream fish movement at most flows. Populations of all three native species were found upstream of this small falls. Age-0 fish of all three species were present, indicating successful spawning. The maximum upstream extent of native fish within Meadow Valley Wash was not determined. Our surveys included about 700 m of Meadow Valley Wash upstream of Kill Wash. A small falls about 2 m high was about 560 m upstream of Kill Wash. This falls is likely a barrier to upstream fish movement at most flows. Populations of all three native species were found upstream of this small falls. Age-0 fish of all three species were present, indicating successful spawning. The maximum upstream extent of native fish within Meadow Valley Wash was not determined. A population of non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was found within the 2,000 m of stream immediately downstream of Delmue Falls. Non-native crayfish were very common both upstream and downstream of Delmue Falls. We were not able to quantify crayfish populations, but they compose a significant portion of the biomass of aquatic species in Condor Canyon. There were some distinctive habitat features that may have favored native fish upstream of Delmue Falls. Upstream of the falls, water temperatures were moderated by inputs from springs, turbidity was lower, pool habitat was more prevalent, substrate heterogeneity was higher, and there was less fine sediment than

Psychosocial Predictors of Breast Self-Examination among Female Students in Malaysia: A Study to Assess the Roles of Body Image, Self-efficacy and Perceived Barriers.

PubMed

Ahmadian, Maryam; Carmack, Suzie; Samah, Asnarulkhadi Abu; Kreps, Gary; Saidu, Mohammed Bashir

2016-01-01

Early detection is a critical part of reducing the burden of breast cancer and breast selfexamination (BSE) has been found to be an especially important early detection strategy in low and middle income countries such as Malaysia. Although reports indicate that Malaysian women report an increase in BSE activity in recent years, additional research is needed to explore factors that may help to increase this behavior among Southeastern Asian women. This study is the first of its kind to explore how the predicting variables of self-efficacy, perceived barriers, and body image factors correlate with self-reports of past BSE, and intention to conduct future breast self-exams among female students in Malaysia. Through the analysis of data collected from a prior study of female students from nine Malaysian universities (n=842), this study found that self-efficacy, perceived barriers and specific body image sub-constructs (MBSRQ-Appearance Scales) were correlated with, and at times predicted, both the likelihood of past BSE and the intention to conduct breast self-exams in the future. Self-efficacy (SE) positively predicted the likelihood of past self-exam behavior, and intention to conduct future breast self-exams. Perceived barriers (BR) negatively predicted past behavior and future intention of breast self-exams. The body image sub-constructs of appearance evaluation (AE) and overweight preoccupation (OWP) predicted the likelihood of past behavior but did not predict intention for future behavior. Appearance orientation (AO) had a somewhat opposite effect: AO did not correlate with or predict past behavior but did correlate with intention to conduct breast self-exams in the future. The body image sub-constructs of body area satisfaction (BASS) and self-classified weight (SCW) showed no correlation with the subjects' past breast self-exam behavior nor with their intention to conduct breast self-exams in the future. Findings from this study indicate that both self-efficacy and perceived barriers to BSE are significant psychosocial factors that influence BSE behavior. These results suggest that health promotion interventions that help enhance self-efficacy and reduce perceived barriers have the potential to increase the intentions of Malaysian women to perform breast self-exams, which can promote early detection of breast cancers. Future research should evaluate targeted communication interventions for addressing self-efficacy and perceived barriers to breast self-exams with at-risk Malaysian women. and further explore the relationship between BSE and body image.

Investigation of Microbial Diversity in Geothermal Hot Springs in Unkeshwar, India, Based on 16S rRNA Amplicon Metagenome Sequencing

PubMed Central

Mehetre, Gajanan T.; Paranjpe, Aditi; Dastager, Syed G.

2016-01-01

Microbial diversity in geothermal waters of the Unkeshwar hot springs in Maharashtra, India, was studied using 16S rRNA amplicon metagenomic sequencing. Taxonomic analysis revealed the presence of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Archeae, and OD1 phyla. Metabolic function prediction analysis indicated a battery of biological information systems indicating rich and novel microbial diversity, with potential biotechnological applications in this niche. PMID:26950332

Water quality, sediment, and soil characteristics near Fargo-Moorhead urban areas as affected by major flooding of the Red River of the north

Treesearch

A.C. Guy; T.M. DeSutter; F.X.M. Casey; R. Kolka; H. Hakk

2012-01-01

Spring flooding of the Red River of the North (RR) is common, but little information exits on how these flood events affect water and overbank sediment quality within an urban area. With the threat of the spring 2009 flood in the RR predicted to be the largest in recorded history and the concerns about the flooding of farmsteads, outbuildings, garages, and basements,...

Quantitative Determination of Spring Water Quality Parameters via Electronic Tongue.

PubMed

Carbó, Noèlia; López Carrero, Javier; Garcia-Castillo, F Javier; Tormos, Isabel; Olivas, Estela; Folch, Elisa; Alcañiz Fillol, Miguel; Soto, Juan; Martínez-Máñez, Ramón; Martínez-Bisbal, M Carmen

2017-12-25

The use of a voltammetric electronic tongue for the quantitative analysis of quality parameters in spring water is proposed here. The electronic voltammetric tongue consisted of a set of four noble electrodes (iridium, rhodium, platinum, and gold) housed inside a stainless steel cylinder. These noble metals have a high durability and are not demanding for maintenance, features required for the development of future automated equipment. A pulse voltammetry study was conducted in 83 spring water samples to determine concentrations of nitrate (range: 6.9-115 mg/L), sulfate (32-472 mg/L), fluoride (0.08-0.26 mg/L), chloride (17-190 mg/L), and sodium (11-94 mg/L) as well as pH (7.3-7.8). These parameters were also determined by routine analytical methods in spring water samples. A partial least squares (PLS) analysis was run to obtain a model to predict these parameter. Orthogonal signal correction (OSC) was applied in the preprocessing step. Calibration (67%) and validation (33%) sets were selected randomly. The electronic tongue showed good predictive power to determine the concentrations of nitrate, sulfate, chloride, and sodium as well as pH and displayed a lower R² and slope in the validation set for fluoride. Nitrate and fluoride concentrations were estimated with errors lower than 15%, whereas chloride, sulfate, and sodium concentrations as well as pH were estimated with errors below 10%.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families. PMID:27783639

Control of barrier island shape by inlet sediment bypassing: East Frisian Islands, West Germany

USGS Publications Warehouse

FitzGerald, D.M.; Penland, S.; Nummedal, D.

1984-01-01

A study of the East Frisian Islands has shown that the plan form of these islands can be explained by processes of inlet sediment bypassing. This island chain is located on a high wave energy, high tide range shoreline where the average deep-water significant wave height exceeds 1.0 m and the spring tidal range varies from 2.7 m at Juist to 2.9 m at Wangerooge. An abundant sediment supply and a strong eastward component of wave power (4.4 ?? 103 W m-1) have caused a persistent eastward growth of the barrier islands. The eastward extension of the barriers has been accommodated more by inlet narrowing, than by inlet migration. It is estimated from morphological evidence that a minimum of 2.7 ?? 105 m3 of sand is delivered to the inlets each year via the easterly longshore transport system. Much of this sand ultimately bypasses the inlets in the form of large, migrating swash bars. The location where the swash bars attach to the beach is controlled by the amount of overlap of the ebb-tidal delta along the downdrift inlet shoreline. The configuration of the ebbtidal delta, in turn, is a function of inlet size and position of the main ebb channel. The swash bar welding process has caused preferential beach nourishment and historical shoreline progradation. Along the East Frisian Islands this process has produced barrier islands with humpbacked, bulbous updrift and bulbous downdrift shapes. The model of barrier island development presented in this paper not only explains well the configuration of the German barriers but also the morphology of barriers along many other mixed energy coasts. ?? 1984.

Nutrition: Unique to Older Adults

MedlinePlus

... with supplements may help reduce falls. Social and Economic Barriers to Good Nutrition : Researchers have found that people in lower social or economic situations have some predictable barriers to eating a ...

XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

2014-05-01

Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be used to help optimise design criteria for gravel barriers to reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coastal protection ability.

Fluorescence measurements show stronger cold inhibition of photosynthetic light reactions in Scots pine compared to Norway spruce as well as during spring compared to autumn.

PubMed

Linkosalo, Tapio; Heikkinen, Juha; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Mäkipää, Raisa

2014-01-01

We studied the photosynthetic activity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst) in relation to air temperature changes from March 2013 to February 2014. We measured the chlorophyll fluorescence of approximately 50 trees of each species growing in southern Finland. Fluorescence was measured 1-3 times per week. We began by measuring shoots present in late winter (i.e., March 2013) before including new shoots once they started to elongate in spring. By July, when the spring shoots had achieved similar fluorescence levels to the older ones, we proceeded to measure the new shoots only. We analyzed the data by fitting a sigmoidal model containing four parameters to link sliding averages of temperature and fluorescence. A parameter defining the temperature range over which predicted fluorescence increased most rapidly was the most informative with in describing temperature dependence of fluorescence. The model generated similar fluorescence patterns for both species, but differences were observed for critical temperature and needle age. Down regulation of the light reaction was stronger in spring than in autumn. Pine showed more conservative control of the photosynthetic light reactions, which were activated later in spring and more readily attenuated in autumn. Under the assumption of a close correlation of fluorescence and photosynthesis, spruce should therefore benefit more than pine from the increased photosynthetic potential during warmer springs, but be more likely to suffer frost damage with a sudden cooling following a warm period. The winter of 2013-2014 was unusually mild and similar to future conditions predicted by global climate models. During the mild winter, the activity of photosynthetic light reactions of both conifers, especially spruce, remained high. Because light levels during winter are too low for photosynthesis, this activity may translate to a net carbon loss due to respiration.

Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

2017-03-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

Record-Breaking Early Flowering in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Ellwood, Elizabeth R.; Temple, Stanley A.; Primack, Richard B.; Davis, Charles C.

2013-01-01

Flowering times are well-documented indicators of the ecological effects of climate change and are linked to numerous ecosystem processes and trophic interactions. Dozens of studies have shown that flowering times for many spring-flowering plants have become earlier as a result of recent climate change, but it is uncertain if flowering times will continue to advance as temperatures rise. Here, we used long-term flowering records initiated by Henry David Thoreau in 1852 and Aldo Leopold in 1935 to investigate this question. Our analyses demonstrate that record-breaking spring temperatures in 2010 and 2012 in Massachusetts, USA, and 2012 in Wisconsin, USA, resulted in the earliest flowering times in recorded history for dozens of spring-flowering plants of the eastern United States. These dramatic advances in spring flowering were successfully predicted by historical relationships between flowering and spring temperature spanning up to 161 years of ecological change. These results demonstrate that numerous temperate plant species have yet to show obvious signs of physiological constraints on phenological advancement in the face of climate change. PMID:23342001

Analysis geothermal prospect of Mt. Endut using geochemistry methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobirin, R.; Permadi, A. N.; Akbar, A. M.; Wildan, D.; Supriyanto

2017-07-01

Mt. Endut geothermal area is located in Lebak district, Banten province, about 40 km to the south of the town of Rangkasbitung. There are four manifestations of hot springs i.e: Handeuleum hot springs, Cikawah 1, Cikawah 2, and Gajrug. Based on geochemical analysis using Na-K-Mg triangular diagrams, Cl-Li-B, and Cl-SO4-HCO3, it is known that Cikawah 1 hot springs is chloride type and the other springs are bicarbonate type. Reservoir temperature range is from 162°C to 180°C are predicted by SiO2 and NaK geothermometers. In general all hot springs are out flows, but there is an hypothesis that Cikawah 1 is the up flow. Because it is in partial equilibrium and chloride type. Mount Endut has a hydrothermal system with a fluid reservoir in the form of hot water or water dominated system. The geothermal prospect area of Mount Endut is located around the Cikawah manifestation to the western part of the Endut mountain. Further research is required by conducting geophysical surveys around the Mount Endut.

AgRISTARS: Supporting research. Spring small grains planting date distribution model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T.; Artley, J. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A model was developed using 996 planting dates at 51 LANDSAT segments for spring wheat and spring barley in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in 1979. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were obtained from the cooperative weather stations nearest to each segment. The model uses a growing degree day summation modified for daily temperature range to estimate the beginning of planting and uses a soil surface wetness variable to estimate how a fixed number of planting days are distributed after planting begins. For 1979, the model predicts first, median, and last planting dates with root mean square errors of 7.91, 6.61, and 7.09 days, respectively. The model also provides three or four dates to represent periods of planting activity within the planting season. Although the full model was not tested on an independent data set, it may be suitable in areas other than the U.S. Great Plains where spring small grains are planted as soon as soil and air temperatures become warm enough in the spring for plant growth.

Examining empirical evidence of the effect of superfluidity on the fusion barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scamps, Guillaume

2018-04-01

Background: Recent time-dependent Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (TDHFB) calculations predict that superfluidity enhances fluctuations of the fusion barrier. This effect is not fully understood and not yet experimentally revealed. Purpose: The goal of this study is to empirically investigate the effect of superfluidity on the distribution width of the fusion barrier. Method: Two new methods are proposed in the present study. First, the local regression method is introduced and used to determine the barrier distribution. The second method, which requires only the calculation of an integral of the cross section, is developed to determine accurately the fluctuations of the barrier. This integral method, showing the best performance, is systematically applied to 115 fusion reactions. Results: Fluctuations of the barrier for open-shell systems are, on average, larger than those for magic or semimagic nuclei. This is due to the deformation and the superfluidity. To disentangle these two effects, a comparison is made between the experimental width and the width estimated from a model that takes into account the tunneling, the deformation, and the vibration effect. This study reveals that superfluidity enhances the fusion barrier width. Conclusions: This analysis shows that the predicted effect of superfluidity on the width of the barrier is real and is of the order of 1 MeV.

Modeling barrier island response to sea-level rise in the Outer Banks, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Laura J.; List, Jeffrey H.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Stolper, David

2007-01-01

An 8500-year Holocene simulation developed in GEOMBEST provides a possible scenario to explain the evolution of barrier coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC. Sensitivity analyses suggest that in the Outer Banks, the rate of sea-level rise is the most important factor in determining how barrier islands evolve. The Holocene simulation provides a basis for future simulations, which suggest that if sea level rises up to 0.88 m by AD 2100, as predicted by the highest estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the barrier in the study area may migrate on the order of 2.5 times more rapidly than at present. If sea level rises beyond IPCC predictions to reach 1.4–1.9 m above modern sea level by AD 2100, model results suggest that barrier islands in the Outer Banks may become vulnerable to threshold collapse, disintegrating during storm events, by the end of the next century. Consistent with sensitivity analyses, additional simulations indicate that anthropogenic activities, such as increasing the rate of sediment supply through beach nourishment, will only slightly affect barrier island migration rates and barrier island vulnerability to collapse.

Correlates of daily leisure-time physical activity in a community sample: Narrow personality traits and practical barriers.

PubMed

Gallagher, Patrick; Yancy, William S; Denissen, Jaap J A; Kühnel, Anja; Voils, Corrine I

2013-12-01

Previous studies examining correlates of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) have identified personality factors that are correlated with LTPA and practical factors that impede LTPA. The purpose of the present study was to test how several narrow traits predict daily reports of LTPA and to test whether traits that predict LTPA moderate the effects of practical barriers. 1192 participants completed baseline measures of personality, then reported their LTPA and several situational and environmental factors daily for 25 days. We used generalized estimating equations to measure how personality traits, practical barriers, and interactions between these factors affected (1) the odds of engaging in LTPA and (2) the duration of daily LTPA. Higher standing on Activity and Discipline and lower standing on Assertiveness predicted greater odds of engaging in LTPA and longer duration of LTPA, and higher standing on Aesthetics predicted shorter duration of LTPA. Poor weather conditions and less leisure time were associated with less LTPA, and effects of these barriers were generally greater among participants 30 and older. In participants older than 30, poor weather was associated with less LTPA among those with lower standing on Activity but was not associated with LTPA among those high in Activity. Despite Discipline's overall positive association with LTPA, less leisure time and less routineness were greater barriers for those high in Discipline. Assessing narrow personality traits could help target LTPA interventions to individual patients' needs and could help identify important new personality dynamics that affect LTPA.

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

2015-01-01

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia

PubMed Central

Bridge, Tom; Beaman, Robin; Done, Terry; Webster, Jody

2012-01-01

Aim Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. Location Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Methods Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. Results Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. Main Conclusion Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used to identify these reefs, which may play an important role in resilience of the GBR ecosystem to climate change. PMID:23118952

Predictors of Rural Health Clinics Managers' Willingness to Join Accountable Care Organizations.

PubMed

T H Wan, Thomas; Masri, Maysoun Dimachkie; Ortiz, Judith

2014-01-01

The implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act has facilitated the development of an innovative and integrated delivery care system, Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs). It is timely, to identify how health care managers in rural health clinics are responding to the ACO model. This research examines RHC managers' perceived benefits and barriers for implementing ACOs from an organizational ecology perspective. A survey was conducted in Spring of 2012 covering the present RHC network working infrastructures - 1) Organizational social network; 2) organizational care delivery structure; 3) ACO knowledge, perceived benefits, and perceived barriers; 4) quality and disease management programs; and 5) health information technology (HIT) infrastructure. One thousand one hundred sixty clinics were surveyed in the United States. They cover eight southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee) and California. A total of ninety-one responses were received. RHC managers' personal perceptions on ACO's benefits and knowledge level explained the most variance in their willingness to join ACOs. Individual perceptions appear to be more influential than organizational and context factors in the predictive analysis. The study is primarily focused in the Southeastern region of the U.S. The generalizability is limited to this region. The predictors of rural health clinics' participation in ACOs are germane to guide the development of organizational strategies for enhancing the general knowledge about the innovativeness of delivering coordinated care and containing health care costs inspired by the Affordable Care Act. Rural health clinics are lagged behind the growth curve of ACO adoption. The diffusion of new knowledge about pros and cons of ACO is essential to reinforce the health care reform in the United States.

Predictors of Rural Health Clinics Managers' Willingness to Join Accountable Care Organizations

PubMed Central

T.H.Wan, Thomas; Masri, Maysoun Dimachkie; Ortiz, Judith

2014-01-01

Purpose The implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act has facilitated the development of an innovative and integrated delivery care system, Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs). It is timely, to identify how health care managers in rural health clinics are responding to the ACO model. This research examines RHC managers' perceived benefits and barriers for implementing ACOs from an organizational ecology perspective. Methodology/Approach A survey was conducted in Spring of 2012 covering the present RHC network working infrastructures – 1) Organizational social network; 2) organizational care delivery structure; 3) ACO knowledge, perceived benefits, and perceived barriers; 4) quality and disease management programs; and 5) health information technology (HIT) infrastructure. One thousand one hundred sixty clinics were surveyed in the United States. They cover eight southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee) and California. A total of ninety-one responses were received. Findings RHC managers' personal perceptions on ACO's benefits and knowledge level explained the most variance in their willingness to join ACOs. Individual perceptions appear to be more influential than organizational and context factors in the predictive analysis. Research limitations/implications The study is primarily focused in the Southeastern region of the U.S. The generalizability is limited to this region. The predictors of rural health clinics' participation in ACOs are germane to guide the development of organizational strategies for enhancing the general knowledge about the innovativeness of delivering coordinated care and containing health care costs inspired by the Affordable Care Act. Originality/Value of Paper Rural health clinics are lagged behind the growth curve of ACO adoption. The diffusion of new knowledge about pros and cons of ACO is essential to reinforce the health care reform in the United States. PMID:25541569

Conspecific Sperm Precedence Is a Reproductive Barrier between Free-Spawning Marine Mussels in the Northwest Atlantic Mytilus Hybrid Zone

PubMed Central

Klibansky, Lara K. J.; McCartney, Michael A.

2014-01-01

Reproductive isolation at the gamete stage has become a focus of speciation research because of its potential to evolve rapidly between closely related species. Conspecific sperm precedence (CSP), a type of gametic isolation, has been demonstrated in a number of taxa, both marine and terrestrial, with the potential to play an important role in speciation. Free-spawning marine invertebrates are ideal subjects for the study of CSP because of a likely central role for gametic barriers in reproductive isolation. The western Atlantic Mytilus blue mussel hybrid zone, ranging from the Atlantic Canada to eastern Maine, exhibits characteristics conducive to the study of CSP. Previous studies have shown that gametic incompatibility is incomplete, variable in strength and the genotype distribution is bimodal—dominated by the parental species, with a low frequency of hybrids. We conducted gamete crossing experiments using M. trossulus and M. edulis individuals collected from natural populations during the spring spawning season in order to detect the presence or absence of CSP within this hybrid zone. We detected CSP, defined here as a reduction in heterospecific offspring from competitive fertilizations in vitro compared to that seen in non-competitive fertilizations, in five of the twelve crosses in which conspecific crosses were detectable. This is the first finding of CSP in a naturally hybridizing population of a free-spawning marine invertebrate. Our findings support earlier predictions that CSP can promote assortative fertilization in bimodal hybrid zones, further advancing their hypothesized progression towards full speciation. Despite strong CSP numerous heterospecific fertilizations remain, reinforcing the hypothesis that compatible females are a source of hybrid offspring in mixed natural spawns. PMID:25268856

Vaccination Perceptions of College Students: With and without Vaccination Waiver.

PubMed

Jadhav, Emmanuel D; Winkler, Danielle L; Anderson, Billie S

2018-01-01

The resurgence of vaccine preventable diseases occurs more often among intentionally unvaccinated individuals, placing at direct risk young adults not caught up on vaccinations. The objectives of this study were to characterize the sociodemographic characteristics of young adults with and without vaccination waivers and identify their perceived benefits, barriers, and influencers of vaccination. Young adults ( n  = 964) from a Midwestern rural university responded to a survey (fall 2015-spring 2016) designed to identify their perception toward vaccination. Instrument consistency was measured using the Cronbach α-scores. The Chi-square test was used to test any sociodemographic differences and Mann-Whitney U -tests results for differences between exempt and non-exempt students. Analysis occurred in spring 2017. A little over one-third of young adults with a vaccination waiver were not up to date on their vaccinations, and think that vaccinations can cause autism. The biggest identifiable benefit was effective control against disease. The surveyed young adults ranked the out of pocket cost associated with vaccination as the most important barrier and safe and easy to use vaccines as the most important influencer of vaccination. Young adults who have had a vaccination waiver appear to not be up to date on their vaccinations. Vaccine administration programs, such as university campus clinics, would benefit from addressing perceptions unique to young adults with and without a vaccine waiver. This would subsequently better provide young adults a second shot for getting appropriately caught up on vaccinations.

Detours in long-distance migration across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: individual consistency and habitat associations.

PubMed

Liu, Dongping; Zhang, Guogang; Jiang, Hongxing; Lu, Jun

2018-01-01

Migratory birds often follow detours when confronted with ecological barriers, and understanding the extent and the underlying drivers of such detours can provide important insights into the associated cost to the annual energy budget and the migration strategies. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the most daunting geographical barrier for migratory birds because the partial pressure of oxygen is dramatically reduced and flight costs greatly increase. We analyzed the repeated migration detours and habitat associations of four Pallas's Gulls Larus ichthyaetus across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau over 22 migration seasons. Gulls exhibited notable detours, with the maximum distance being more than double that of the expected shortest route, that extended rather than reduced the passage across the plateau. The extent of longitudinal detours significantly increased with latitude, and detours were longer in autumn than in spring. Compared with the expected shortest routes, proximity to water bodies increased along autumn migration routes, but detour-habitat associations were weak along spring migration routes. Thus, habitat availability was likely one, but not the only, factor shaping the extent of detours, and migration routes were determined by different mechanisms between seasons. Significant between-individual variation but high individual consistency in migration timing and routes were revealed in both seasons, indicating a stronger influence of endogenous schedules than local environmental conditions. Gulls may benefit from repeated use of familiar routes and stopover sites, which may be particularly significant in the challenging environment of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Academic Motivation and Self-Regulated Learning in Predicting Academic Achievement in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çetin, Baris

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether academic motivation and academic self-regulated learning predicted students' GPAs in the Early Childhood Education Department. The study participants consisted of 166 early childhood education majors enrolled in the 2014 spring semester at Georgia Southern University, USA. Data were gathered using…

IDENTIFYING AND PREDICTING DIVING PLUME BEHAVIOR AT GROUNDWATER SITES CONTAINING MTBE: PART 1 SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDING FOR ACTIVITIES IN FY 2002

EPA Science Inventory

This work will complete work began under Identifying and Predicting Plume Diving Behavior at Groundwater Sites Containing MTBE: Part 1. As of September 2001, ORD Staff and ORD Contractors have characterized dividing MTBE plumes at Spring Green, Wisconsin; Milford, Michigan; and ...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

available at IMD Click here to go to the Special Report page Aug 2016 - IITM started experimental real-time Experimental version of GFS 10.0.0 ported to IITM & NCMRWF - February 2012 EnKF Hybrid GSI update - Spring diagnostics *Experimental* Climate Prediction Center (CPC) links... African Desk: SWFDP GFS forecasts South

Current State and Future Perspectives in QSAR Models to Predict Blood- Brain Barrier Penetration in Central Nervous System Drug R&D.

PubMed

Morales, Juan F; Montoto, Sebastian Scioli; Fagiolino, Pietro; Ruiz, Maria E

2017-01-01

The Blood-Brain Barrier (BBB) is a physical and biochemical barrier that restricts the entry of certain drugs to the Central Nervous System (CNS), while allowing the passage of others. The ability to predict the permeability of a given molecule through the BBB is a key aspect in CNS drug discovery and development, since neurotherapeutic agents with molecular targets in the CNS should be able to cross the BBB, whereas peripherally acting agents should not, to minimize the risk of CNS adverse effects. In this review we examine and discuss QSAR approaches and current availability of experimental data for the construction of BBB permeability predictive models, focusing on the modeling of the biorelevant parameter unbound partitioning coefficient (Kp,uu). Emphasis is made on two possible strategies to overcome the current limitations of in silico models: considering the prediction of brain penetration as a multifactorial problem, and increasing experimental datasets through accurate and standardized experimental techniques.

Integrating multiple genomic data to predict disease-causing nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants in exome sequencing studies.

PubMed

Wu, Jiaxin; Li, Yanda; Jiang, Rui

2014-03-01

Exome sequencing has been widely used in detecting pathogenic nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants (SNVs) for human inherited diseases. However, traditional statistical genetics methods are ineffective in analyzing exome sequencing data, due to such facts as the large number of sequenced variants, the presence of non-negligible fraction of pathogenic rare variants or de novo mutations, and the limited size of affected and normal populations. Indeed, prevalent applications of exome sequencing have been appealing for an effective computational method for identifying causative nonsynonymous SNVs from a large number of sequenced variants. Here, we propose a bioinformatics approach called SPRING (Snv PRioritization via the INtegration of Genomic data) for identifying pathogenic nonsynonymous SNVs for a given query disease. Based on six functional effect scores calculated by existing methods (SIFT, PolyPhen2, LRT, MutationTaster, GERP and PhyloP) and five association scores derived from a variety of genomic data sources (gene ontology, protein-protein interactions, protein sequences, protein domain annotations and gene pathway annotations), SPRING calculates the statistical significance that an SNV is causative for a query disease and hence provides a means of prioritizing candidate SNVs. With a series of comprehensive validation experiments, we demonstrate that SPRING is valid for diseases whose genetic bases are either partly known or completely unknown and effective for diseases with a variety of inheritance styles. In applications of our method to real exome sequencing data sets, we show the capability of SPRING in detecting causative de novo mutations for autism, epileptic encephalopathies and intellectual disability. We further provide an online service, the standalone software and genome-wide predictions of causative SNVs for 5,080 diseases at http://bioinfo.au.tsinghua.edu.cn/spring.

Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

2013-12-01

Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern tropical Pacific SST as the high-frequency predictor and antecedent accumulated precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa as low-frequency predictors, the predicted seasonal dust activity over Saudi Arabia is well correlated with the original time series (correlation above 0.6).

Investigation of Microbial Diversity in Geothermal Hot Springs in Unkeshwar, India, Based on 16S rRNA Amplicon Metagenome Sequencing.

PubMed

Mehetre, Gajanan T; Paranjpe, Aditi; Dastager, Syed G; Dharne, Mahesh S

2016-02-25

Microbial diversity in geothermal waters of the Unkeshwar hot springs in Maharashtra, India, was studied using 16S rRNA amplicon metagenomic sequencing. Taxonomic analysis revealed the presence of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Archeae, and OD1 phyla. Metabolic function prediction analysis indicated a battery of biological information systems indicating rich and novel microbial diversity, with potential biotechnological applications in this niche. Copyright © 2016 Mehetre et al.

Impact of Sea Surface Salinity on Coupled Dynamics for the Tropical Indo Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.; Hackert, E. C.

2014-12-01

In this presentation we assess the impact of in situ and satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts using a Hybrid Coupled Model (HCM) for 1993-2007 (cf., Hackert et al., 2011) and August 2011 until February 2014 (cf., Hackert et al., 2014). The HCM is composed of a primitive equation ocean model coupled with a SVD-based statistical atmospheric model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region. An Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter (EROKF) is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the HCM. Including SSS generally improves NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly validation. Assimilating SSS gives significant improvement versus just subsurface temperature for all forecast lead times after 5 months. We find that the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening in the western Pacific warm pool that leads to increased barrier layer thickness (BLT) and shallower mixed layer depths. Thus, in the west the net effect of assimilating SSS is to increase stability and reduce mixing, which concentrates the wind impact of ENSO coupling. Specifically, the main benefit of SSS assimilation for 1993-2007 comes from improvement to the Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB) period. In the east, the impact of Aquarius satellite SSS is to induce more cooling in the NINO3 region as a result of being relatively more salty than in situ SSS in the eastern Pacific leading to increased mixing and entrainment. This, in turn, sets up an enhanced west to east SST gradient and intensified Bjerknes coupling. For the 2011-2014 period, consensus coupled model forecasts compiled by the IRI tend to erroneously predict NINO3 warming; SSS assimilation corrects this defect. Finally, we plan to update our analysis and report on the dynamical impact of including Aquarius SSS for the most-recent, ongoing 2014 El Niño in the tropical Pacific and compare these results with other available coupled models that do not yet include satellite SSS.

Thick thermal barrier coatings for diesel engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beardsley, M. Brad

1995-01-01

Caterpillar's approach to applying thick thermal barrier coatings (TTBC's) to diesel engine combustion chambers has been to use advanced modeling techniques to predict engine conditions and combine this information with fundamental property evaluation of TTBC systems to predict engine performance and TTBC stress states. Engine testing has been used to verify the predicted performance of the TTBC systems and provide information on failure mechanisms. The objective Caterpillar's program to date has been to advance the fundamental understanding of thick thermal barrier coating systems. Previous reviews of thermal barrier coating technology concluded that the current level of understanding of coating system behavior is inadequate and the lack of fundamental understanding may impeded the application of TTBC's to diesel engines. Areas of TTBC technology being examined in this program include powder characteristics and chemistry; bond coat composition; coating design, microstructure, and thickness as they affect properties, durability, and reliability; and TTBC 'aging' effects (microstructural and property changes) under diesel engine operating conditions. Methods to evaluate the reliability and durability of TTBC's have been developed that attempt to understand the fundamental strength of TTBC's for particular stress states.

Thick thermal barrier coatings for diesel engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beardsley, M. B.

1995-01-01

Caterpillar's approach to applying Thick Thermal Barrier Coatings (TTBC's) to diesel engine combustion chambers has been to use advanced modeling techniques to predict engine conditions and combine this information with fundamental property evaluation of TTBC systems to predict engine performance and TTBC stress states. Engine testing has been used to verify the predicted performance of the TTBC systems and provide information on failure mechanisms. The objective of Caterpillar's subcontract with ORNL is to advance the fundamental understanding of thick thermal barrier coating systems. Previous reviews of thermal barrier coating technology concluded that the current level of understanding of coating system behavior is inadequate and the lack of fundamental understanding may impede the application of TTBC's to diesel engines. Areas of TTBC technology being examined in this program include powder characteristics and chemistry; bond coat composition; coating design, microstructure, and thickness as they affect properties, durability, and reliability; and TTBC 'aging' effects (microstructural and property changes) under diesel engine operating conditions. Methods to evaluate the reliability and durability of TTBC's have been developed that attempt to understand the fundamental strength of TTBC's for particular stress states.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J. F.; Tasooji, A.

1985-01-01

This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system is composed of a low pressure, plasma sprayed applied, oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating. The other system is an air plasma sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer.

Evaluating indices of lipid and protein content in lesser snow and Ross's geese during spring migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Elisabeth B.; Fowler, Drew N.; Woodall, Brendan A.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

2018-01-01

Assessing nutrient stores in avian species is important for understanding the extent to which body condition influences success or failure in life‐history events. We evaluated predictive models using morphometric characteristics to estimate total body lipids (TBL) and total body protein (TBP), based on traditional proximate analyses, in spring migrating lesser snow geese (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) and Ross's geese (A. rossii). We also compared performance of our lipid model with a previously derived predictive equation for TBL developed for nesting lesser snow geese. We used external and internal measurements on 612 lesser snow and 125 Ross's geese collected during spring migration in 2015 and 2016 within the Central and Mississippi flyways to derive and evaluate predictive models. Using a validation data set, our best performing lipid model for snow geese better predicted TBL (root mean square error [RMSE] of 23.56) compared with a model derived from nesting individuals (RMSE = 48.60), suggesting the importance of season‐specific models for accurate lipid estimation. Models that included body mass and abdominal fat deposit best predicted TBL determined by proximate analysis in both species (lesser snow goose, R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 23.56: Ross's geese, R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 13.75). Models incorporating a combination of external structural measurements in addition to internal muscle and body mass best predicted protein values (R2 = 0.85, RMSE = 19.39 and R2 = 0.85, RMSE = 7.65, lesser snow and Ross's geese, respectively), but protein models including only body mass and body size were also competitive and provided extended utility to our equations for field applications. Therefore, our models indicated the importance of specimen dissection and measurement of the abdominal fat pad to provide the most accurate lipid estimates and provide alternative dissection‐free methods for estimating protein.

Retention and recruitment of general dentists in an adjunct teaching model—A pilot study

PubMed Central

Barwacz, Christopher A.; Parker, I. Reed; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L.; Holmes, David C.

2017-01-01

Purpose/Objectives Retention and recruitment of part time clinical adjunct faculty members in dental education is becoming increasingly difficult as dental schools come to rely on this workforce for their increased involvement in clinical education. Contributing factors include full time faculty shortage, aging workforce, practice and student debt, practice and family commitments, and financial compensation. This study attempts to ascertain barriers to teaching so appropriate strategies can be formulated to address this issue. Methods In the spring of 2016 an email survey was sent to current and former adjunct faculty members to ascertain demographics and retention and recruitment strategies. Descriptive analyses were completed for all variables in the sample. Results Twenty nine of forty six subjects responded to the survey with a response rate of 63%. Subjects over the age of sixty comprised 55% with only 17% being under the age of forty five. Overall family and practice commitments along with compensation were the primary barriers to teaching part time. For new dentists, student loan debt was the primary barrier to teaching. Travel to teach was also a barrier as 70% of respondents drove 200 miles or less to the dental school. Conclusion The study demonstrated that the aging part time work force is a great concern and new part time clinical adjunct faculty members must be recruited. Barriers to recruitment and retention of faculty must be considered and addressed to sustain this teaching model. PMID:28715479

Transport barriers in bootstrap-driven tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staebler, G. M.; Garofalo, A. M.; Pan, C.; McClenaghan, J.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Lao, L. L.

2018-05-01

Experiments have demonstrated improved energy confinement due to the spontaneous formation of an internal transport barrier in high bootstrap fraction discharges. Gyrokinetic analysis, and quasilinear predictive modeling, demonstrates that the observed transport barrier is caused by the suppression of turbulence primarily from the large Shafranov shift. It is shown that the Shafranov shift can produce a bifurcation to improved confinement in regions of positive magnetic shear or a continuous reduction in transport for weak or negative magnetic shear. Operation at high safety factor lowers the pressure gradient threshold for the Shafranov shift-driven barrier formation. Two self-organized states of the internal and edge transport barrier are observed. It is shown that these two states are controlled by the interaction of the bootstrap current with magnetic shear, and the kinetic ballooning mode instability boundary. Election scale energy transport is predicted to be dominant in the inner 60% of the profile. Evidence is presented that energetic particle-driven instabilities could be playing a role in the thermal energy transport in this region.

Perceptions of Relatedness with Classroom Peers Promote Adolescents’ Behavioral Engagement and Achievement in Secondary School

PubMed Central

Mikami, Amori Yee; Ruzek, Erik A.; Hafen, Christopher A.; Gregory, Anne; Allen, Joseph P.

2017-01-01

Secondary school is a vulnerable time where stagnation or declines in classroom behavioral engagement occur for many students, and peer relationships take on a heightened significance. We examined the implications of adolescents’ perceptions of relatedness with classroom peers for their academic learning. Participants were 1084 adolescents (53% female) in 65 middle and high school classrooms. Multilevel cross-lagged path analyses found that adolescents’ perceived relatedness with classroom peers subsequently predicted their increased self-reported behavioral engagement in that classroom from fall to winter and again from winter to spring. Higher engagement in spring predicted higher end of year objective achievement test scores after statistical control of prior year test scores. Implications are discussed for increasing classroom peer relatedness to enhance adolescents’ achievement. PMID:28755252

The Temporal Association Between Traditional and Cyber Dating Abuse Among Adolescents.

PubMed

Temple, Jeff R; Choi, Hye Jeong; Brem, Meagan; Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Stuart, Gregory L; Peskin, Melissa Fleschler; Elmquist, JoAnna

2016-02-01

While research has explored adolescents' use of technology to perpetrate dating violence, little is known about how traditional in-person and cyber abuse are linked, and no studies have examined their relationship over time. Using our sample of 780 diverse adolescents (58 % female), we found that traditional and cyber abuse were positively associated, and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization were correlated at each time point. Cyber abuse perpetration in the previous year (spring 2013) predicted cyber abuse perpetration 1 year later (spring 2014), while controlling for traditional abuse and demographic variables. In addition, physical violence victimization and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization predicted cyber abuse victimization the following year. These findings highlight the reciprocal nature of cyber abuse and suggest that victims may experience abuse in multiple contexts.

The Temporal Association between Traditional and Cyber Dating Abuse among Adolescents

PubMed Central

Temple, Jeff R.; Choi, Hye Jeong; Brem, Meagan; Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Stuart, Gregory L.; Peskin, Melissa Fleschler; Elmquist, JoAnna

2015-01-01

While research has explored adolescents’ use of technology to perpetrate dating violence, little is known about how traditional in-person and cyber abuse are linked, and no studies have examined their relationship over time. Using our sample of 780 diverse adolescents (58% female), we found that traditional and cyber abuse were positively associated, and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization were correlated at each time point. Cyber abuse perpetration in the previous year (spring 2013) predicted cyber abuse perpetration one year later (spring 2014), while controlling for traditional abuse and demographic variables. In addition, physical violence victimization and cyber abuse perpetration and victimization predicted cyber abuse victimization the following year. These findings highlight the reciprocal nature of cyber abuse and suggest that victims may experience abuse in multiple contexts. PMID:26525389

Sex on the beach: the influence of social norms and trip companion on spring break sexual behavior.

PubMed

Lewis, Melissa A; Patrick, Megan E; Mittmann, Angela; Kaysen, Debra L

2014-06-01

Spring Break trips are associated with heavy drinking and with risky sexual behavior (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, unwanted sexual contact), especially for those students who go on trips with friends. The present study adds to this growing event-specific risk literature by examining Spring Break-specific normative perceptions of sexual risk behavior and the role that these perceptions and taking a trip with a friend or with a romantic partner have on Spring Break sexual behavior. College students (N = 1,540; 53.9 % female) were asked to report descriptive normative perceptions of sex with casual partners, drinking prior to sex, number of drinks prior to sex, and condom use as well as their own Spring Break drinking and sexual behaviors. Students perceived the typical same-sex student to have engaged in more frequent sexual behavior for all outcomes than students' own self-reported sexual behavior. Furthermore, results revealed that these perceptions were positively associated with behavior. The choice of travel companion (friend(s) versus romantic partner) also differentially predicted sexual behaviors. Results suggested that intervention efforts aimed at reducing risks for Spring Break trip-takers may be strongest when they incorporate corrective normative information and target those traveling with friends.

Sex on the Beach: The Influence of Social Norms and Trip Companion on Spring Break Sexual Behavior

PubMed Central

Lewis, Melissa A.; Patrick, Megan E.; Mittmann, Angela; Kaysen, Debra L.

2014-01-01

Spring Break trips are associated with heavy drinking and with risky sexual behavior (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, unwanted sexual contact), especially for those students who go on trips with friends. The present study adds to this growing event-specific risk literature by examining Spring Break-specific normative perceptions of sexual risk behavior and the role that these perceptions and taking a trip with a friend or with a romantic partner have on Spring Break sexual behavior. College students (N = 1,540; 53.9% female) were asked to report descriptive normative perceptions of sex with casual partners, drinking prior to sex, number of drinks prior to sex, and condom use as well as their own Spring Break drinking and sexual behaviors. Students perceived the typical same-sex student to have engaged in more frequent sexual behavior for all outcomes than students’ own self-reported sexual behavior. Furthermore, results revealed that these perceptions were positively associated with behavior. The choice of travel companion (friend(s) vs. romantic partner) also deferentially predicted sexual behaviors. Results suggested that intervention efforts aimed at reducing risks for Spring Break trip-takers may be strongest when they incorporate corrective normative information and target those traveling with friends. PMID:24464322

Barriers to Surgical Care and Health Outcomes: A Prospective Study on the Relation Between Wealth, Sex, and Postoperative Complications in the Republic of Congo.

PubMed

Lin, Brian M; White, Michelle; Glover, Ana; Wamah, Greta Peterson; Trotti, Davi L; Randall, Kirstie; Alkire, Blake C; Cheney, Mack L; Parker, Gary; Shrime, Mark G

2017-01-01

Approximately thirty percent of the global burden of disease is comprised of surgical conditions. However, five billion people lack access to surgery, with complex factors acting as barriers. We examined whether patient demographics predict barriers to care, and the relation between these factors and postoperative complications in a prospective cohort. Participants included people presenting to a global charity in Republic of Congo with a surgical condition between August 2013 and May 2014. The outcomes were self-reported barrier to care and postoperative complications documented by medical record. Logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates. Of 1237 patients in our study, 1190 (96.2 %) experienced a barrier to care and 126 (10.2 %) experienced a postoperative complication. The most frequently reported barrier was cost (73 %), followed by lack of provider (8.2 %). Greater wealth was associated with decreased odds of cost as a barrier (OR 0.72 [0.57, 0.90]). Greater wealth (OR 1.52 [1.03, 2.25]) and rural home location (OR 3.35 [1.16, 9.62]) were associated with increased odds of no surgeon being available. Cost as a barrier (OR 2.82 [1.02, 7.77]), female sex (OR 3.45 [1.62, 7.33]), and lack of surgeon (OR 5.62 [1.68, 18.77]) were associated with increased odds of postoperative complication. Patient wealth was not associated with odds of postoperative complication. Barriers to surgery were common in Republic of Congo. Patient wealth and home location may predict barriers to surgery. Addressing gender disparities, access to providers, and patient perception of barriers in addition to removal of barriers may help maximize patient health benefits.

Revisiting the extended spring indices using gridded weather data and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehdipoor, Hamed; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Emma; Zurita-Milla, Raul

2016-04-01

The extended spring indices or SI-x [1] have been successfully used to predict the timing of spring onset at continental scales. The SI-x models were created by combining lilac and honeysuckle volunteered phenological observations, temperature data (from weather stations) and latitudinal information. More precisely, these models use a linear regression to predict the day of year of first leaf and first bloom for these two indicator species. In this contribution we revisit both the data and the method used to calibrate the SI-x models to check whether the addition of new input data or the use of non-linear regression methods could lead to improments in the model outputs. In particular, we use a recently published dataset [2] of volunteered observations on cloned and common lilac over longer period of time (1980-2014) and we replace the weather station data by 54 features derived from Daymet [3], which provides 1 by 1 km gridded estimates of daily weather parameters (maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, water vapor pressure, solar radiation, day length, snow water equivalent) for North America. These features consist of both daily weather values and their long- and short-term accumulations and elevation. we also replace the original linear regression by a non-linear method. Specifically, we use random forests to both identify the most important features and to predict the day of year of the first leaf of cloned and common lilacs. Preliminary results confirm the importance of the SI-x features (maximum and minimum temperatures and day length). However, our results show that snow water equivalent and water vapor pressure are also necessary to properly model leaf onset. Regarding the predictions, our results indicate that Random Forests yield comparable results to those produced by the SI-x models (in terms of root mean square error -RMSE). For cloned and common lilac, the models predict the day of year of leafing with 16 and 15 days of accuracy respectively. Further research should focus on extensively comparing the features used by both modelling approaches and on analyzing spring onset patterns over continental United States. References 1. Schwartz, M.D., T.R. Ault, and J.L. Betancourt, Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices. International Journal of Climatology, 2013. 33(13): p. 2917-2922. 2. Rosemartin, A.H., et al., Lilac and honeysuckle phenology data 1956-2014. Scientific Data, 2015. 2: p. 150038. 3. Thornton, P.E., et al. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 2. 2014.

Projectile Motion Details.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnick, Jeffrey W.

1994-01-01

Presents an exercise that attempts to correct for the common discrepancies between theoretical and experimental predictions concerning projectile motion using a spring-loaded projectile ball launcher. Includes common correction factors for student use. (MVL)

Impacts of climate change on spring flower tourism in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huanjiong

2016-04-01

The beauty of blooming flowers causes spring to be one of the most picturesque and pleasant seasons in which to travel. However, the blooming time of plant species are very sensitive to small changes in climate. Therefore, recent climate change may shift flowering time and, as a result, may affect timing of spring tourism for tourists. In order to prove this assumption, we gathered data of first flowering date and end of flowering date (1963-2014) for 49 common ornamental plants in Beijing, China. In addition, we used the number of messages (2010-2014) posted on Sina Weibo (one of the most popular microblogs sites in China, in use by well over 30% of internet users, with a market penetration similar to the United States' Twitter) to indicate the tourist numbers of five scenic spots in Beijing. These spots are most famous places for seeing spring flowers, including the Summer Palace, Yuyuantan Park, Beijing Botanical Garden, Jingshan Park, Dadu City Wall Relics Park. The results showed that the number of species in flower starts to increase in early spring and peaks in middle spring, and then begins to decrease from late spring. The date when the number of species in flower peaks can be defined as best date of spring flower tourism, because on this day people can see blooming flowers of most plant species. The best date of spring flower tourism varied from March 31 to May 1 among years with a mean of April 20. At above scenic spots characterized by the beauty of blooming flowers, tourist numbers also had a peak value during spring. Furthermore, peak time of tourist numbers derived from Weibo varied among different years and was related to best date of spring flower tour derived from phenological data. This suggests that the time of spring outing for tourists is remarkably attracted by flowering phenology. From 1963 to 2014, the best date of spring flower tour became earlier at a rate of 1.6 days decade-1, but the duration for spring flower tour (defined as width at midpoint of frequency distribution curve) kept stable. The best date of spring flower tourism was significantly correlated with spring temperature (R=-0.66, P<0.01), with an increase in spring temperature of 1 °C causing the best date earlier by 4.0 days. In the context of future global warming, it is crucial to enhance the ability to predict flowering time, so as to provide reference for tourism administrators and the tourists to make better tourism arrangements.

Multidimensionally constrained relativistic mean-field study of triple-humped barriers in actinides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jie; Lu, Bing-Nan; Vretenar, Dario; Zhao, En-Guang; Zhou, Shan-Gui

2015-01-01

Background: Potential energy surfaces (PES's) of actinide nuclei are characterized by a two-humped barrier structure. At large deformations beyond the second barrier, the occurrence of a third barrier was predicted by macroscopic-microscopic model calculations in the 1970s, but contradictory results were later reported by a number of studies that used different methods. Purpose: Triple-humped barriers in actinide nuclei are investigated in the framework of covariant density functional theory (CDFT). Methods: Calculations are performed using the multidimensionally constrained relativistic mean field (MDC-RMF) model, with the nonlinear point-coupling functional PC-PK1 and the density-dependent meson exchange functional DD-ME2 in the particle-hole channel. Pairing correlations are treated in the BCS approximation with a separable pairing force of finite range. Results: Two-dimensional PES's of 226,228,230,232Th and 232,235,236,238U are mapped and the third minima on these surfaces are located. Then one-dimensional potential energy curves along the fission path are analyzed in detail and the energies of the second barrier, the third minimum, and the third barrier are determined. The functional DD-ME2 predicts the occurrence of a third barrier in all Th nuclei and 238U . The third minima in 230 ,232Th are very shallow, whereas those in 226 ,228Th and 238U are quite prominent. With the functional PC-PK1 a third barrier is found only in 226 ,228 ,230Th . Single-nucleon levels around the Fermi surface are analyzed in 226Th, and it is found that the formation of the third minimum is mainly due to the Z =90 proton energy gap at β20≈1.5 and β30≈0.7 . Conclusions: The possible occurrence of a third barrier on the PES's of actinide nuclei depends on the effective interaction used in multidimensional CDFT calculations. More pronounced minima are predicted by the DD-ME2 functional, as compared to the functional PC-PK1. The depth of the third well in Th isotopes decreases with increasing neutron number. The origin of the third minimum is due to the proton Z =90 shell gap at relevant deformations.

Effectiveness of six noise barriers on I-495 : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-01-01

While measurements made by the Virginia Highway and Transportation Research Council, other departments of transportation, and the Federal Highway Administration have generally shown that acoustical barriers perform as predicted, public acceptance has...

2D barrier in a superconducting niobium square

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joya, Miryam R., E-mail: mrinconj@unal.edu.co; Barba-ortega, J., E-mail: jjbarbao@unal.edu.co; Sardella, Edson, E-mail: edsonsdl@gmail.com

The presence of barriers changes the vortex structure in superconducting Nb square in presence of a uniform applied magnetic field. The Cooper pair configurations in a mesoscopics superconducting square of Nb with a barrier are calculated within the nonlinear Ginzburg Landau equations. We predict the nucleation of multi-vortex states into the sample and a soft entry of the magnetic field inside and around into the barrier. A novel and non-conventional vortex configurations occurs at determined magnetic field.

Traffic Noise Ground Attenuation Algorithm Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Lloyd Allen

The Federal Highway Administration traffic noise prediction program, STAMINA 2.0, was evaluated for its accuracy. In addition, the ground attenuation algorithm used in the Ontario ORNAMENT method was evaluated to determine its potential to improve these predictions. Field measurements of sound levels were made at 41 sites on I-440 in Nashville, Tennessee in order to both study noise barrier effectiveness and to evaluate STAMINA 2.0 and the performance of the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm. The measurement sites, which contain large variations in terrain, included several cross sections. Further, all sites contain some type of barrier, natural or constructed, which could more fully expose the strength and weaknesses of the ground attenuation algorithms. The noise barrier evaluation was accomplished in accordance with American National Standard Methods for Determination of Insertion Loss of Outdoor Noise Barriers which resulted in an evaluation of this standard. The entire 7.2 mile length of I-440 was modeled using STAMINA 2.0. A multiple run procedure was developed to emulate the results that would be obtained if the ORNAMENT algorithm was incorporated into STAMINA 2.0. Finally, the predicted noise levels based on STAMINA 2.0 and STAMINA with the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm were compared with each other and with the field measurements. It was found that STAMINA 2.0 overpredicted noise levels by an average of over 2 dB for the receivers on I-440, whereas, the STAMINA with ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm overpredicted noise levels by an average of less than 0.5 dB. The mean errors for the two predictions were found to be statistically different from each other, and the mean error for the prediction with the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm was not found to be statistically different from zero. The STAMINA 2.0 program predicts little, if any, ground attenuation for receivers at typical first-row distances from highways where noise barriers are used. The ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm, which recognizes and better compensates for the presence of obstacles in the propagation path of a sound wave, predicted significant amounts of ground attenuation for most sites.

Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

2015-01-01

In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children…

The Predictive Validity of a Computer-Adaptive Assessment of Kindergarten and First-Grade Reading Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clemens, Nathan H.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Luo, Wen; Cerda, Carissa; Blakely, Alane; Frosch, Jennifer; Gamez-Patience, Brenda; Jones, Meredith

2015-01-01

This study examined the predictive validity of a computer-adaptive assessment for measuring kindergarten reading skills using the STAR Early Literacy (SEL) test. The findings showed that the results of SEL assessments administered during the fall, winter, and spring of kindergarten were moderate and statistically significant predictors of year-end…

Testing the Self-Consistency of the Excursion Set Approach to Predicting the Dark Matter Halo Mass Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achitouv, I.; Rasera, Y.; Sheth, R. K.; Corasaniti, P. S.

2013-12-01

The excursion set approach provides a framework for predicting how the abundance of dark matter halos depends on the initial conditions. A key ingredient of this formalism is the specification of a critical overdensity threshold (barrier) which protohalos must exceed if they are to form virialized halos at a later time. However, to make its predictions, the excursion set approach explicitly averages over all positions in the initial field, rather than the special ones around which halos form, so it is not clear that the barrier has physical motivation or meaning. In this Letter we show that once the statistical assumptions which underlie the excursion set approach are considered a drifting diffusing barrier model does provide a good self-consistent description both of halo abundance as well as of the initial overdensities of the protohalo patches.

Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2001-01-01

Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

Microinjector for blasocysts

DOEpatents

Remenyik, Carl J.; Woychik, Richard P.; Patek, David R.; Hawk, James A.; Turner, John C.

1999-01-01

An electromechanical device for driving the tip of a microinjection cannula, or needle, through the outer barrier of a blastocyst, cell, or cell nucleus for the injection of cells or other bioactive materials. Either a flexible frame or a ram moving within a base member is employed. Cannula motion is achieved by means of a piezoelectric stack and spring return system. The thrust motion over a predetermined microscopic distance is achieved without cannula setback prior to the thrust movement. Instead of specially prepared beveled and tipped needles, standard unimproved cannulas or needles can be used.

Microinjector for blasocysts

DOEpatents

Remenyik, C.J.; Woychik, R.P.; Patek, D.R.; Hawk, J.A.; Turner, J.C.

1999-03-02

An electromechanical device is disclosed for driving the tip of a microinjection cannula, or needle, through the outer barrier of a blastocyst, cell, or cell nucleus for the injection of cells or other bioactive materials. Either a flexible frame or a ram moving within a base member is employed. Cannula motion is achieved by means of a piezoelectric stack and spring return system. The thrust motion over a predetermined microscopic distance is achieved without cannula setback prior to the thrust movement. Instead of specially prepared beveled and tipped needles, standard unimproved cannulas or needles can be used. 6 figs.

The significance of turbulent flow representation in single-continuum models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reimann, T.; Rehrl, C.; Shoemaker, W.B.; Geyer, T.; Birk, S.

2011-01-01

Karst aquifers exhibit highly conductive features caused from rock dissolution processes. Flow within these structures can become turbulent and therefore can be expressed by nonlinear gradient functions. One way to account for these effects is by coupling a continuum model with a conduit network. Alternatively, turbulent flow can be considered by adapting the hydraulic conductivity within the continuum model. Consequently, the significance of turbulent flow on the dynamic behavior of karst springs is investigated by an enhanced single-continuum model that results in conduit-type flow in continuum cells (CTFC). The single-continuum approach CTFC represents laminar and turbulent flow as well as more complex hybrid models that require additional programming and numerical efforts. A parameter study is conducted to investigate the effects of turbulent flow on the response of karst springs to recharge events using the new CTFC approach, existing hybrid models, and MODFLOW-2005. Results reflect the importance of representing (1) turbulent flow in karst conduits and (2) the exchange between conduits and continuum cells. More specifically, laminar models overestimate maximum spring discharge and underestimate hydraulic gradients within the conduit. It follows that aquifer properties inferred from spring hydrographs are potentially impaired by ignoring flow effects due to turbulence. The exchange factor used for hybrid models is necessary to account for the scale dependency between hydraulic properties of the matrix continuum and conduits. This functionality, which is not included in CTFC, can be mimicked by appropriate use of the Horizontal Flow Barrier package for MODFLOW. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Fine-scale population structure in a desert amphibian: landscape genetics of the black toad (Bufo exsul).

PubMed

Wang, Ian J

2009-09-01

Environmental variables can strongly influence a variety of intra- and inter-population processes, including demography, population structure and gene flow. When environmental conditions are particularly harsh for a certain species, investigating these effects is important to understanding how populations persist under difficult conditions. Furthermore, species inhabiting challenging environments present excellent opportunities to examine the effects of complex landscapes on population processes because these effects will often be more pronounced. In this study, I use 16 microsatellite loci to examine population structure, gene flow and demographic history in the black toad, Bufo exsul, which has one of the most restricted natural ranges of any amphibian. Bufo exsul inhabits four springs in the Deep Springs Valley high desert basin and has never been observed more than several meters from any source of water. My results reveal limited gene flow and moderately high levels of population structure (F(ST) = 0.051-0.063) between all but the two closest springs. I found that the geographic distance across the arid scrub habitat between springs is significantly correlated with genetic structure when distance accounts for topography and barriers to dispersal. I also found very low effective population sizes (N(e) = 7-30) and substantial evidence for historical population bottlenecks in all four populations. Together, these results suggest that the desert landscape and B. exsul's high habitat specificity contribute significantly to population structure and demography in this species and emphasize the importance of considering behavioural and landscape data in conservation genetic studies of natural systems.

A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone.

PubMed

Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.

Quantitative Determination of Spring Water Quality Parameters via Electronic Tongue

PubMed Central

Carbó, Noèlia; López Carrero, Javier; Garcia-Castillo, F. Javier; Olivas, Estela; Folch, Elisa; Alcañiz Fillol, Miguel; Soto, Juan

2017-01-01

The use of a voltammetric electronic tongue for the quantitative analysis of quality parameters in spring water is proposed here. The electronic voltammetric tongue consisted of a set of four noble electrodes (iridium, rhodium, platinum, and gold) housed inside a stainless steel cylinder. These noble metals have a high durability and are not demanding for maintenance, features required for the development of future automated equipment. A pulse voltammetry study was conducted in 83 spring water samples to determine concentrations of nitrate (range: 6.9–115 mg/L), sulfate (32–472 mg/L), fluoride (0.08–0.26 mg/L), chloride (17–190 mg/L), and sodium (11–94 mg/L) as well as pH (7.3–7.8). These parameters were also determined by routine analytical methods in spring water samples. A partial least squares (PLS) analysis was run to obtain a model to predict these parameter. Orthogonal signal correction (OSC) was applied in the preprocessing step. Calibration (67%) and validation (33%) sets were selected randomly. The electronic tongue showed good predictive power to determine the concentrations of nitrate, sulfate, chloride, and sodium as well as pH and displayed a lower R2 and slope in the validation set for fluoride. Nitrate and fluoride concentrations were estimated with errors lower than 15%, whereas chloride, sulfate, and sodium concentrations as well as pH were estimated with errors below 10%. PMID:29295592

Scaling of rotational inertia of primate mandibles.

PubMed

Ross, Callum F; Iriarte-Diaz, Jose; Platts, Ellen; Walsh, Treva; Heins, Liam; Gerstner, Geoffrey E; Taylor, Andrea B

2017-05-01

The relative importance of pendulum mechanics and muscle mechanics in chewing dynamics has implications for understanding the optimality criteria driving the evolution of primate feeding systems. The Spring Model (Ross et al., 2009b), which modeled the primate chewing system as a forced mass-spring system, predicted that chew cycle time would increase faster than was actually observed. We hypothesized that if mandibular momentum plays an important role in chewing dynamics, more accurate estimates of the rotational inertia of the mandible would improve the accuracy with which the Spring Model predicts the scaling of primate chew cycle period. However, if mass-related momentum effects are of negligible importance in the scaling of primate chew cycle period, this hypothesis would be falsified. We also predicted that greater "robusticity" of anthropoid mandibles compared with prosimians would be associated with higher moments of inertia. From computed tomography scans, we estimated the scaling of the moment of inertia (I j ) of the mandibles of thirty-one species of primates, including 22 anthropoid and nine prosimian species, separating I j into the moment about a transverse axis through the center of mass (I xx ) and the moment of the center of mass about plausible axes of rotation. We found that across primates I j increases with positive allometry relative to jaw length, primarily due to positive allometry of jaw mass and I xx , and that anthropoid mandibles have greater rotational inertia compared with prosimian mandibles of similar length. Positive allometry of I j of primate mandibles actually lowers the predictive ability of the Spring Model, suggesting that scaling of primate chew cycle period, and chewing dynamics in general, are more strongly influenced by factors other than scaling of inertial properties of the mandible, such as the dynamic properties of the jaw muscles and neural control. Differences in cycle period scaling between chewing and locomotion systems reinforce the suggestion that displacement and force control are more important in the design of feeding systems than energetics and speed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime of Major Histocompatibility Complex Class-I Membrane Clusters Is Controlled by the Actin Cytoskeleton

PubMed Central

Lavi, Yael; Gov, Nir; Edidin, Michael; Gheber, Levi A.

2012-01-01

Lateral heterogeneity of cell membranes has been demonstrated in numerous studies showing anomalous diffusion of membrane proteins; it has been explained by models and experiments suggesting dynamic barriers to free diffusion, that temporarily confine membrane proteins into microscopic patches. This picture, however, comes short of explaining a steady-state patchy distribution of proteins, in face of the transient opening of the barriers. In our previous work we directly imaged persistent clusters of MHC-I, a type I transmembrane protein, and proposed a model of a dynamic equilibrium between proteins newly delivered to the cell surface by vesicle traffic, temporary confinement by dynamic barriers to lateral diffusion, and dispersion of the clusters by diffusion over the dynamic barriers. Our model predicted that the clusters are dynamic, appearing when an exocytic vesicle fuses with the plasma membrane and dispersing with a typical lifetime that depends on lateral diffusion and the dynamics of barriers. In a subsequent work, we showed this to be the case. Here we test another prediction of the model, and show that changing the stability of actin barriers to lateral diffusion changes cluster lifetimes. We also develop a model for the distribution of cluster lifetimes, consistent with the function of barriers to lateral diffusion in maintaining MHC-I clusters. PMID:22500754

Spring predictability explains different leaf-out strategies in the woody floras of North America, Europe and East Asia.

PubMed

Zohner, Constantin M; Benito, Blas M; Fridley, Jason D; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S

2017-04-01

Intuitively, interannual spring temperature variability (STV) should influence the leaf-out strategies of temperate zone woody species, with high winter chilling requirements in species from regions where spring warming varies greatly among years. We tested this hypothesis using experiments in 215 species and leaf-out monitoring in 1585 species from East Asia (EA), Europe (EU) and North America (NA). The results reveal that species from regions with high STV indeed have higher winter chilling requirements, and, when grown under the same conditions, leaf out later than related species from regions with lower STV. Since 1900, STV has been consistently higher in NA than in EU and EA, and under experimentally short winter conditions NA species required 84% more spring warming for bud break, EU ones 49% and EA ones only 1%. These previously unknown continental-scale differences in phenological strategies underscore the need for considering regional climate histories in global change models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Effects of classroom organization on letter-word reading in first grade.

PubMed

Cameron, Claire E; Connor, Carol McDonald; Morrison, Frederick J; Jewkes, Abigail M

2008-04-01

Teacher organization is a crucial part of classroom functioning; however, its relation to student achievement has not been investigated as extensively as that of instruction. In this study, organization is defined as the amount of time teachers spend explaining the purpose and procedures of learning activities and daily routines. Data from first-grade classrooms (N=44) observed three times during the school year (fall, winter, and spring) are analyzed, along with students' (N=108) literacy skills at fall and spring. Hierarchical Linear Modeling reveals that, controlling for students' fall word reading and vocabulary skills, as well as amount of language arts instruction they receive, both amount and change in amount over time in classroom organization significantly predicts spring word reading skills. Specifically, children in classrooms observed in higher amounts of classroom time in organization at the beginning of the school year, followed by sharp decreases over the school year, demonstrated stronger letter and word reading skills by spring, and this was a main effect (p<.05). Practical and research implications are discussed.

Five-year growth trajectories of kindergarten children with learning difficulties in mathematics.

PubMed

Morgan, Paul L; Farkas, George; Qiong Wu

2009-01-01

The investigators used data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K) to estimate whether and to what extent the timing and persistence of mathematics difficulties (MD) in kindergarten predicted children's first through fifth grade math growth trajectories. Results indicated that children persistently displaying MD (i.e., those experiencing MD in both fall and spring of kindergarten) had the lowest subsequent growth rates, children with MD in spring only had the second-lowest growth rates, and children with MD in the fall only (and who had thus recovered from their MD by the spring of kindergarten) had the next-lowest growth rates. The children who did not have MD in either fall or spring of kindergarten had the highest growth rates. These results were observed prior to and after statistical control for additional variables. They indicate that measuring the timing and persistence of kindergarten children's mathematics learning difficulties may help identify those most at risk for failing to become mathematically proficient during elementary school.

Vibration computer programs E13101, E13102, E13104, and E13112 and application to the NERVA program. Project 187: Methodology documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mironenko, G.

1972-01-01

Programs for the analyses of the free or forced, undamped vibrations of one or two elastically-coupled lumped parameter teams are presented. Bearing nonlinearities, casing and rotor distributed mass and elasticity, rotor imbalance, forcing functions, gyroscopic moments, rotary inertia, and shear and flexural deformations are all included in the system dynamics analysis. All bearings have nonlinear load displacement characteristics, the solution is achieved by iteration. Rotor imbalances allowed by such considerations as pilot tolerances and runouts as well as bearing clearances (allowing concail or cylindrical whirl) determine the forcing function magnitudes. The computer programs first obtain a solution wherein the bearings are treated as linear springs of given spring rates. Then, based upon the computed bearing reactions, new spring rates are predicted and another solution of the modified system is made. The iteration is continued until the changes to bearing spring rates and bearing reactions become negligibly small.

US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang-Ki; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Enfield, David B.; Weaver, Scott J.; Wang, Chunzai; Atlas, Robert

2016-04-01

Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. We show that the four dominant springtime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Niño and resurgent versus transitioning La Niña) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.

Convection and the seeding of the North Atlantic bloom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Asaro, Eric A.

Observations of vertical velocities in deep wintertime mixed layers using neutrally buoyant floats show that the convectively driven vertical velocities, roughly 1000 m per day, greatly exceed the sinking velocities of phytoplankton, 10 m or less per day. These velocities mix plankton effectively and uniformly across the convective layer and are therefore capable of returning those that have sunk to depth back into the euphotic zone. This mechanism cycles cells through the surface layer during the winter and provides a seed population for the spring bloom. A simple model of this mechanism applied to immortal phytoplankton in the subpolar Labrador Sea predicts that the seed population in early spring will be a few percent of the fall concentration if the plankton sink more slowly than the mean rate at which the surface well-mixed layer grows over the winter. Plankton that sink faster than this will mostly sink into the abyss with only a minute fraction remaining by spring. The shallower mixed layers of mid-latitudes are predicted to be much less effective at maintaining a seed population over the winter, limiting the ability of rapidly sinking cells to survive the winter.

Influence of Molecular Resolution on Sequence-Based Discovery of Ecological Diversity among Synechococcus Populations in an Alkaline Siliceous Hot Spring Microbial Mat ▿ †

PubMed Central

Melendrez, Melanie C.; Lange, Rachel K.; Cohan, Frederick M.; Ward, David M.

2011-01-01

Previous research has shown that sequences of 16S rRNA genes and 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer regions may not have enough genetic resolution to define all ecologically distinct Synechococcus populations (ecotypes) inhabiting alkaline, siliceous hot spring microbial mats. To achieve higher molecular resolution, we studied sequence variation in three protein-encoding loci sampled by PCR from 60°C and 65°C sites in the Mushroom Spring mat (Yellowstone National Park, WY). Sequences were analyzed using the ecotype simulation (ES) and AdaptML algorithms to identify putative ecotypes. Between 4 and 14 times more putative ecotypes were predicted from variation in protein-encoding locus sequences than from variation in 16S rRNA and 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer sequences. The number of putative ecotypes predicted depended on the number of sequences sampled and the molecular resolution of the locus. Chao estimates of diversity indicated that few rare ecotypes were missed. Many ecotypes hypothesized by sequence analyses were different in their habitat specificities, suggesting different adaptations to temperature or other parameters that vary along the flow channel. PMID:21169433

Self-organization and forcing templates in coastal barrier response to storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, E.

2015-12-01

When a storm event pushes water up and over a coastal barrier, cross-shore flow transports sediment from the barrier face to the back-barrier environment. This natural physical process is called "overwash", and "washover" is the sedimentary deposit it forms. Overwash and washover support critical coastal habitats, and enable barriers to maintain their height and width relative to rising sea level. On developed barrier coasts, overwash constitutes a natural hazard, which sea-level rise will exacerbate. Overwash is also a prerequisite for barrier breaching and coastal flooding. Predicting occurrence and characteristics of overwash and washover has significant societal value. Hazard models typically assume that pre-storm barrier morphology determines how the barrier changes during a storm. However, classic work has documented the absence of a relationship between pre/post-storm topography in some cases, and has also identified rhythmic patterns in washover alongshore. Previous explanations for these spatial patterns have looked to forcing templates, forms that get imprinted in the barrier shape. An alternative explanation is that washover patterns self-organize, emerging from feedbacks between water flow and sediment transport. Self-organization and forcing templates are often framed as mutually exclusive, but patterns likely form across a continuum of conditions. Here, I use data from a new physical experiment to suggest that spatial patterns in washover can self-organize within the limit of a forcing template of some critical "strength", beyond which pre/post-storm morphologies are highly correlated. Quantifying spatial patterns in washover deposits opens exciting questions regarding coastal morphodynamic response to storms. Measurement of relative template strength over extended spatial (and temporal) scales has the potential to improve hazard assessment and prediction, particularly where template strength is low and self-organization dominates barrier change.

The Study of Relationship between Women Teachers' Career Barriers and Organizational Silence: Viewpoint of Women and Men Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inandi, Yusuf; Gün, Meryem Evsen; Giliç, Fahrettin

2017-01-01

The purpose of the study is to reveal the relationship between women teachers' career barriers and their organizational silence, and also whether career barriers predict their silence.* Study group is comprised of 522 teachers working at elementary and high schools in central districts of Mersin. In this descriptive study, data were collected…

A behavior-based framework for assessing barrier effects to wildlife from vehicle traffic volume

Treesearch

Sandra L. Jacobson; Leslie L. Bliss-Ketchum; Catherine E. de Rivera; Winston P. Smith; D. P. C. Peters

2016-01-01

Roads, while central to the function of human society, create barriers to animal movement through collisions and habitat fragmentation. Barriers to animal movement affect the evolution and trajectory of populations. Investigators have attempted to use traffic volume, the number of vehicles passing a point on a road segment, to predict effects to wildlife populations...

The role of perceived barriers and objectively measured physical activity in adults aged 65-100.

PubMed

Gellert, Paul; Witham, Miles D; Crombie, Iain K; Donnan, Peter T; McMurdo, Marion E T; Sniehotta, Falko F

2015-05-01

to test the predictive utility of perceived barriers to objectively measured physical activity levels in a stratified sample of older adults when accounting for social-cognitive determinants proposed by the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), and economic and demographic factors. data were analysed from the Physical Activity Cohort Scotland survey, a representative and stratified (65-80 and 80+ years; deprived and affluent) sample of 584 community-dwelling older people, resident in Tayside, Scotland. Physical activity was measured objectively by accelerometry. perceived barriers clustered around the areas of poor health, lack of interest, lack of safety and lack of access. Perceived poor health and lack of interest, but not lack of access or concerns about personal safety, predicted physical activity after controlling for demographic, economic and TPB variables. perceived person-related barriers (poor health and lack of interest) seem to be more strongly associated with physical activity levels than perceived environmental barriers (safety and access) in a large sample of older adults. Perceived barriers are modifiable and may be a target for future interventions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrated approach to modeling long-term durability of concrete engineered barriers in LLRW disposal facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, J.H.; Roy, D.M.; Mann, B.

1995-12-31

This paper describes an integrated approach to developing a predictive computer model for long-term performance of concrete engineered barriers utilized in LLRW and ILRW disposal facilities. The model development concept consists of three major modeling schemes: hydration modeling of the binder phase, pore solution speciation, and transport modeling in the concrete barrier and service environment. Although still in its inception, the model development approach demonstrated that the chemical and physical properties of complex cementitious materials and their interactions with service environments can be described quantitatively. Applying the integrated model development approach to modeling alkali (Na and K) leaching from amore » concrete pad barrier in an above-grade tumulus disposal unit, it is predicted that, in a near-surface land disposal facility where water infiltration through the facility is normally minimal, the alkalis control the pore solution pH of the concrete barriers for much longer than most previous concrete barrier degradation studies assumed. The results also imply that a highly alkaline condition created by the alkali leaching will result in alteration of the soil mineralogy in the vicinity of the disposal facility.« less

The Long and Viscous Road: Uncovering Nuclear Diffusion Barriers in Closed Mitosis

PubMed Central

Zavala, Eder; Marquez-Lago, Tatiana T.

2014-01-01

Diffusion barriers are effective means for constraining protein lateral exchange in cellular membranes. In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, they have been shown to sustain parental identity through asymmetric segregation of ageing factors during closed mitosis. Even though barriers have been extensively studied in the plasma membrane, their identity and organization within the nucleus remains poorly understood. Based on different lines of experimental evidence, we present a model of the composition and structural organization of a nuclear diffusion barrier during anaphase. By means of spatial stochastic simulations, we propose how specialised lipid domains, protein rings, and morphological changes of the nucleus may coordinate to restrict protein exchange between mother and daughter nuclear lobes. We explore distinct, plausible configurations of these diffusion barriers and offer testable predictions regarding their protein exclusion properties and the diffusion regimes they generate. Our model predicts that, while a specialised lipid domain and an immobile protein ring at the bud neck can compartmentalize the nucleus during early anaphase; a specialised lipid domain spanning the elongated bridge between lobes would be entirely sufficient during late anaphase. Our work shows how complex nuclear diffusion barriers in closed mitosis may arise from simple nanoscale biophysical interactions. PMID:25032937

Monte Carlo Simulation of THz Multipliers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

East, J.; Blakey, P.

1997-01-01

Schottky Barrier diode frequency multipliers are critical components in submillimeter and Thz space based earth observation systems. As the operating frequency of these multipliers has increased, the agreement between design predictions and experimental results has become poorer. The multiplier design is usually based on a nonlinear model using a form of harmonic balance and a model for the Schottky barrier diode. Conventional voltage dependent lumped element models do a poor job of predicting THz frequency performance. This paper will describe a large signal Monte Carlo simulation of Schottky barrier multipliers. The simulation is a time dependent particle field Monte Carlo simulation with ohmic and Schottky barrier boundary conditions included that has been combined with a fixed point solution for the nonlinear circuit interaction. The results in the paper will point out some important time constants in varactor operation and will describe the effects of current saturation and nonlinear resistances on multiplier operation.

Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

2010-01-01

Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

Diffusion barriers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicolet, M. A.

1983-01-01

The choice of the metallic film for the contact to a semiconductor device is discussed. One way to try to stabilize a contact is by interposing a thin film of a material that has low diffusivity for the atoms in question. This thin film application is known as a diffusion barrier. Three types of barriers can be distinguished. The stuffed barrier derives its low atomic diffusivity to impurities that concentrate along the extended defects of a polycrystalline layer. Sacrificial barriers exploit the fact that some (elemental) thin films react in a laterally uniform and reproducible fashion. Sacrificial barriers have the advantage that the point of their failure is predictable. Passive barriers are those most closely approximating an ideal barrier. The most-studied case is that of sputtered TiN films. Stuffed barriers may be viewed as passive barriers whose low diffusivity material extends along the defects of the polycrystalline host.

Resistance to alveolar shape change limits range of force propagation in lung parenchyma.

PubMed

Ma, Baoshun; Smith, Bradford J; Bates, Jason H T

2015-06-01

We have recently shown that if the lung parenchyma is modeled in 2 dimensions as a network of springs arranged in a pattern of repeating hexagonal cells, the distortional forces around a contracting airway propagate much further from the airway wall than classic continuum theory predicts. In the present study we tested the hypothesis that this occurs because of the negligible shear modulus of a hexagonal spring network. We simulated the narrowing of an airway embedded in a hexagonal network of elastic alveolar walls when the hexagonal cells of the network offered some resistance to a change in shape. We found that as the forces resisting shape change approach about 10% of the forces resisting length change of an individual spring the range of distortional force propagation in the spring network fell of rapidly as in an elastic continuum. We repeated these investigations in a 3-dimensional spring network composed of space-filling polyhedral cells and found similar results. This suggests that force propagation away from a point of local parenchymal distortion also falls off rapidly in real lung tissue. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground based NO2 and O3 measurements by visible spectrometer at Syowa Base (69 deg S), Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kondo, Y.; Matthews, W. A.; Johnston, Paul V.; Hayashi, M.; Koike, M.; Iwasaka, Y.; Shimizu, A.; Budiyono, A.; Yamanouchi, T.; Aoki, S.

1994-01-01

The column amounts of NO2 and ozone have been measured using visible spectroscopy at Syowa Base (69 deg S) since March 1990. Ozone was also measured at the same location with a Dobson spectrometer as well as ozonesondes being flown regularly. The characteristic features of the seasonal and diurnal variations of NO2 are presented. The column ozone values from the visible spectrometers are compared with the Dobson data. The very low values of NO2 in midwinter and early spring are consistent with the conditions predicted to be needed for heterogeneous ozone destruction in early spring. In late spring and summer of 1991, NO2 amounts were considerably smaller than in 1990, presumably due to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption.

Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haines, K.; Melia, N.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

2017-12-01

In our previous work [1] we showed how trans-Arctic shipping routes would become more available through the 21st century as sea ice declines, using CMIP5 models with means and stds calibrated to PIOMAS sea ice observations. Sea ice will continue to close shipping routes to open water vessels through the winter months for the foreseeable future so the availability of open sea routes will vary greatly from year to year. Here [2] we look at whether the trans-Arctic shipping season period can be predicted in seasonal forecasts, again using several climate models, and testing both perfect and imperfect knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts may show lower skill before a May `predictability barrier'. Focussing on the northern sea route (NSR) off Siberia, the date of opening of this sea route is twice as variable as the closing date, and this carries through to reduced predictability at the start of the season. Under climate change the later freeze-up date accounts for 60% of the lengthening season, Fig1 We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than for average ice years. Forecasting the exact timing of route open periods is harder (more weather dependent) under average ice conditions while in high and low ice years the season is more controlled by the initial ice conditions from spring onwards. This could be very useful information for companies planning vessel routing for the coming season. We tested this dependence on the initial ice conditions by changing the initial ice state towards climatologically average conditions and show directly that early summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts of the coming shipping season. Mechanisms for this are discussed. This strongly suggests that good sea ice thickness observations should become a key component of the future Arctic observing system. Melia, N., K. Haines, and E. Hawkins (2016), Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/ 2016GL069315. Melia, N., K. Haines, E. Hawkins and J.J. Day, 2017, Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions. Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60

Development and Validation of a Constitutive Model for Dental Composites during the Curing Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickham Kolstad, Lauren

Debonding is a critical failure of a dental composites used for dental restorations. Debonding of dental composites can be determined by comparing the shrinkage stress of to the debonding strength of the adhesive that bonds it to the tooth surface. It is difficult to measure shrinkage stress experimentally. In this study, finite element analysis is used to predict the stress in the composite during cure. A new constitutive law is presented that will allow composite developers to evaluate composite shrinkage stress at early stages in the material development. Shrinkage stress and shrinkage strain experimental data were gathered for three dental resins, Z250, Z350, and P90. Experimental data were used to develop a constitutive model for the Young's modulus as a function of time of the dental composite during cure. A Maxwell model, spring and dashpot in series, was used to simulate the composite. The compliance of the shrinkage stress device was also taken into account by including a spring in series with the Maxwell model. A coefficient of thermal expansion was also determined for internal loading of the composite by dividing shrinkage strain by time. Three FEA models are presented. A spring-disk model validates that the constitutive law is self-consistent. A quarter cuspal deflection model uses separate experimental data to verify that the constitutive law is valid. Finally, an axisymmetric tooth model is used to predict interfacial stresses in the composite. These stresses are compared to the debonding strength to check if the composite debonds. The new constitutive model accurately predicted cuspal deflection data. Predictions for interfacial bond stress in the tooth model compare favorably with debonding characteristics observed in practice for dental resins.

Winter range arrival and departure of white-tailed deer in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, M.E.

1995-01-01

I analyzed 364 spring and 239 fall migrations by 194 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 1975 to 1993 in northeastern Minnesota to determine the proximate cause of arrivals on and departures from winter ranges. The first autumn temperatures below -7?C initiated fall migrations for 14% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0-30) of female deer prior to snowfall in three autumns, but only 2% remained on winter ranges. During 14 autumns, the first temperatures below -7?C coincidental with snowfalls elicited migration in 45% (95% CI = 34-57) of females, and 91 % remained on winter ranges. Arrival dates failed to correlate with independent variables of temperature and snow depth, precluding predictive modeling of arrival on winter ranges. During 13 years, a mean of 80% of females permanently arrived on winter ranges by 31 December. Mean departure dates from winter ranges varied annually (19 March - 4 May) and between winter ranges (14 days) and according to snow depth (15-cm differences). Only 15 - 41 % of deer departed when snow depths were> 30 cm but 80% had done so by the time of lO-cm depths. Mean weekly snow depths in March (18-85 cm) and mean temperature in April (0.3 -8.1 ?c) explained most of the variation in mean departure dates from two winter ranges (Ely, R2 = 0.87, P < 0.0005, n = 19 springs; Isabella, R2 = 0.85, P = 0.0001, n = 12 springs). Mean differences between observed mean departure dates and mean departure dates predicted from equations ranged from 3 days (predictions within the study area) to 8 days (predictions for winter ranges 100-440 km distant).

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations.

PubMed

Gerber, Brian D; Kendall, William L; Hooten, Mevin B; Dubovsky, James A; Drewien, Roderick C

2015-09-01

1. Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment. 2. Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression. 3. Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring-summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect. 4. Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond. 5. Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Asynchrony in host and parasite phenology may decrease disease risk in livestock under climate warming: Nematodirus battus in lambs as a case study.

PubMed

Gethings, Owen J; Rose, Hannah; Mitchell, Siân; Van Dijk, Jan; Morgan, Eric R

2015-09-01

Mismatch in the phenology of trophically linked species as a result of climate warming has been shown to have far-reaching effects on animal communities, but implications for disease have so far received limited attention. This paper presents evidence suggestive of phenological asynchrony in a host-parasite system arising from climate change, with impacts on transmission. Diagnostic laboratory data on outbreaks of infection with the pathogenic nematode Nematodirus battus in sheep flocks in the UK were used to validate region-specific models of the effect of spring temperature on parasite transmission. The hatching of parasite eggs to produce infective larvae is driven by temperature, while the availability of susceptible hosts depends on lambing date, which is relatively insensitive to inter-annual variation in spring temperature. In southern areas and in warmer years, earlier emergence of infective larvae in spring was predicted, with decline through mortality before peak availability of susceptible lambs. Data confirmed model predictions, with fewer outbreaks recorded in those years and regions. Overlap between larval peaks and lamb availability was not reduced in northern areas, which experienced no decreases in the number of reported outbreaks. Results suggest that phenological asynchrony arising from climate warming may affect parasite transmission, with non-linear but predictable impacts on disease burden. Improved understanding of complex responses of host-parasite systems to climate change can contribute to effective adaptation of parasite control strategies.

Imbalance of gut microbiome and intestinal epithelial barrier dysfunction in patients with high blood pressure

PubMed Central

Kim, Seungbum; Goel, Ruby; Kumar, Ashok; Qi, Yanfei; Lobaton, Gil; Hosaka, Koji; Mohammed, Mohammed; Handberg, Eileen M.; Richards, Elaine M.; Pepine, Carl J.; Raizada, Mohan K.

2018-01-01

Recent evidence indicates a link between gut pathology and microbiome with hypertension (HTN) in animal models. However, whether this association exists in humans is unknown. Thus, our objectives in the present study were to test the hypotheses that high blood pressure (BP) patients have distinct gut microbiomes and that gut–epithelial barrier function markers and microbiome composition could predict systolic BP (SBP). Fecal samples, analyzed by shotgun metagenomics, displayed taxonomic and functional changes, including altered butyrate production between patients with high BP and reference subjects. Significant increases in plasma of intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP), lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and augmented gut-targetting proinflammatory T helper 17 (Th17) cells in high BP patients demonstrated increased intestinal inflammation and permeability. Zonulin, a gut epithelial tight junction protein regulator, was markedly elevated, further supporting gut barrier dysfunction in high BP. Zonulin strongly correlated with SBP (R2 = 0.5301, P<0.0001). Two models predicting SBP were built using stepwise linear regression analysis of microbiome data and circulating markers of gut health, and validated in a separate cohort by prediction of SBP from zonulin in plasma (R2 = 0.4608, P<0.0001). The mouse model of HTN, chronic angiotensin II (Ang II) infusion, was used to confirm the effects of butyrate and gut barrier function on the cardiovascular system and BP. These results support our conclusion that intestinal barrier dysfunction and microbiome function are linked to HTN in humans. They suggest that manipulation of gut microbiome and its barrier functions could be the new therapeutic and diagnostic avenues for HTN. PMID:29507058

International Earth Science Constellation Mission Operations Working Group September 27-29, 2016 Aqua Spring 2017 IAM Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Good, Susan M.

2016-01-01

This Aqua Spring 2017 IAM Series powerpoint presentation will be presented at the MOWG meeting in Albuquerque, NM. Topics to be discussed are: recap Aqua 2016 IAM campaign maneuver results and post 2016 IAM MLT evolution; current DMU strategy; 2017 IAM campaign dates and planning; Aqua latest lifetime MLT team predictions. Susan Good is a contractor who supports David Tracewell in code 595 therefore this is being routed through 595. Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager-Technical has reviewed and approved this presentation.

Comparison of age distributions estimated from environmental tracers by using binary-dilution and numerical models of fractured and folded karst: Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Plummer, Niel; Kauffman, Leon J.; Doctor, Daniel H.; Nelms, David L.; Schlosser, Peter

2013-01-01

Measured concentrations of environmental tracers in spring discharge from a karst aquifer in the Shenandoah Valley, USA, were used to refine a numerical groundwater flow model. The karst aquifer is folded and faulted carbonate bedrock dominated by diffuse flow along fractures. The numerical model represented bedrock structure and discrete features (fault zones and springs). Concentrations of 3H, 3He, 4He, and CFC-113 in spring discharge were interpreted as binary dilutions of young (0–8 years) water and old (tracer-free) water. Simulated mixtures of groundwater are derived from young water flowing along shallow paths, with the addition of old water flowing along deeper paths through the model domain that discharge to springs along fault zones. The simulated median age of young water discharged from springs (5.7 years) is slightly older than the median age estimated from 3H/3He data (4.4 years). The numerical model predicted a fraction of old water in spring discharge (0.07) that was half that determined by the binary-dilution model using the 3H/3He apparent age and 3H and CFC-113 data (0.14). This difference suggests that faults and lineaments are more numerous or extensive than those mapped and included in the numerical model.

A two-way architectural actuator using NiTi SE wire and SME spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nematollahi, Mohammadreza; Mehrabi, Reza; Callejas, Miguel A.; Elahinia, Hedyeh; Elahinia, Mohammad

2018-03-01

This paper presents a bio-inspired continuously adapting architectural element, to enable a smart canopy that provides shade to buildings that need protection from sunlight. The smart actuator consists of two elements: one NiTi shape memory (SME) spring and one NiTi superelastic (SE) wire. The SE wire is deformed to a `U' shape and then the SME spring is attached to it. Due to the force of SE wire exerted on SME spring, the smart canopy is in its open position. When the environment's temperature increases, the actuator activates and shrinks the SME spring and hence it closes the canopy. In continues, when the temperature decreases at evening, the actuator inactive and SE wire will open the smart fabric. This unique activation provides different advantages like silent actuation, maintenance free, eco-friendly, and no or low energy consumption. Here, the conceptual design of the smart canopy actuator will be discussed. Then, a simulation study, using finite element method, is used to investigate components' behavior. The extracted material parameters are implemented in the subroutine, to simulate the behavior of the shape memory alloy elements. Simulation's results predict superelastic behavior for the SE wire and shape memory effect for the NiTi spring. For further studies, a prototype will be fabricated to confirm simulation's results, as well as performing some experimental tests.

Observational evidence for the relationship between spring soil moisture and June rainfall over the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KanthaRao, B.; Rakesh, V.

2018-05-01

Understanding the relationship between gradually varying soil moisture (SM) conditions and monsoon rainfall anomalies is crucial for seasonal prediction. Though it is an important issue, very few studies in the past attempted to diagnose the linkages between the antecedent SM and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. This study examined the relationship between spring (April-May) SM and June rainfall using observed data during the period 1979-2010. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses showed that the spring SM plays a significant role in June rainfall over the Central India (CI), South India (SI), and North East India (NEI) regions. The composite anomaly of the spring SM and June rainfall showed that excess (deficit) June rainfall over the CI was preceded by wet (dry) spring SM. The anomalies in surface-specific humidity, air temperature, and surface radiation fluxes also supported the existence of a positive SM-precipitation feedback over the CI. On the contrary, excess (deficit) June rainfall over the SI and NEI region were preceded by dry (wet) spring SM. The abnormal wet (dry) SM over the SI and NEI decreased (increased) the 2-m air temperature and increased (decreased) the surface pressure compared to the surrounding oceans which resulted in less (more) moisture transport from oceans to land (negative SM-precipitation feedback over the Indian monsoon region).

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

2018-01-01

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

Seasonal differences of model predictability and the impact of SST in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, X. M.; Wang, H. J.

2005-01-01

Both seasonal potential predictability and the impact of SST in the Pacific on the forecast skill over China are investigated by using a 9-level global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L-ACCM). For each year during 1970 to 1999, the ensemble consists of seven integrations started from consecutive observational daily atmospheric fields and forced by observational monthly SST. For boreal winter, spring and summer, the variance ratios of the SST-forced variability to the total variability and the differences in the spatial correlation coefficients of seasonal mean fields in special years versus normal years are computed respectively. It follows that there are slightly inter-seasonal differences in the model potential predictability in the Tropics. At northern middle and high latitudes, prediction skill is generally low in spring and relatively high either in summer for surface air temperature and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential height or in winter for wind and precipitation. In general, prediction skill rises notably in western China, especially in northwestern China, when SST anomalies (SSTA) in the Ni (n) over tildeo-3 region are significant. Moreover, particular attention should be paid to the SSTA in the North Pacific (NP) if one aims to predict summer climate over the eastern part of China, i.e., northeastern China, North China and southeastern China.

Hood River Production Program Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) - Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs : Annual Report For Fiscal Year, October 2007 – September 2008.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerstenberger, Ryan

2009-07-27

This progress report describes work performed by the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs (CTWSRO) portion of the Hood River Production Program Monitoring and Evaluation Project (HRPP) during the 2008 fiscal year. A total of 64,736 hatchery winter steelhead, 12,108 hatchery summer steelhead, and 68,426 hatchery spring Chinook salmon smolts were acclimated and released in the Hood River basin during the spring. The HRPP exceeded program goals for a release of and 50,000 winter steelhead but fell short of the steelhead release goals of 30,000 summer steelhead and 75,000 spring Chinook in 2008. Passive Integrated Transponders (PIT) tags were implanted inmore » 6,652 hatchery winter steelhead, and 1,196 hatchery summer steelhead, to compare migratory attributes and survival rates of hatchery fish released into the Hood River. Water temperatures were recorded at six locations within the Hood River subbasin to monitor for compliance with Oregon Department of Environmental Quality water quality standards. A preseason spring Chinook salmon adult run forecast was generated, which predicted an abundant return adequate to meet escapement goal and brood stock needs. As a result the tribal and sport fisheries were opened. A tribal creel was conducted from May 22 to July 18 during which an estimated 172 spring Chinook were harvested. One hundred sixteen Spring Chinook salmon redds were observed and 72 carcasses were inspected on 19.4 miles of spawning grounds throughout the Hood River Basin during 2008. Annual salvage operations were completed in two irrigation canals resulting in the liberation of 1,641 fish back to the Hood River.« less

Nucleus-size pinning for determination of nucleation free-energy barriers and nucleus geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Abhishek K.; Escobedo, Fernando A.

2018-05-01

Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT) has recently been used in conjunction with a seeding approach to simulate nucleation phenomena at small-to-moderate supersaturation conditions when large free-energy barriers ensue. In this study, the conventional seeding approach [J. R. Espinosa et al., J. Chem. Phys. 144, 034501 (2016)] is improved by a novel, more robust method to estimate nucleation barriers. Inspired by the interfacial pinning approach [U. R. Pedersen, J. Chem. Phys. 139, 104102 (2013)] used before to determine conditions where two phases coexist, the seed of the incipient phase is pinned to a preselected size to iteratively drive the system toward the conditions where the seed becomes a critical nucleus. The proposed technique is first validated by estimating the critical nucleation conditions for the disorder-to-order transition in hard spheres and then applied to simulate and characterize the highly non-trivial (prolate) morphology of the critical crystal nucleus in hard gyrobifastigia. A generalization of CNT is used to account for nucleus asphericity and predict nucleation free-energy barriers for gyrobifastigia. These predictions of nuclei shape and barriers are validated by independent umbrella sampling calculations.

Theory of planned behaviour variables and objective walking behaviour do not show seasonal variation in a randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Longitudinal studies have shown that objectively measured walking behaviour is subject to seasonal variation, with people walking more in summer compared to winter. Seasonality therefore may have the potential to bias the results of randomised controlled trials if there are not adequate statistical or design controls. Despite this there are no studies that assess the impact of seasonality on walking behaviour in a randomised controlled trial, to quantify the extent of such bias. Further there have been no studies assessing how season impacts on the psychological predictors of walking behaviour to date. The aim of the present study was to assess seasonal differences in a) objective walking behaviour and b) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) variables during a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking. Methods 315 patients were recruited to a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking in primary care. A series of repeated measures ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the effect of season on pedometer measures of walking behaviour and TPB measures, assessed immediately post-intervention and six months later. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to assess whether season moderated the prediction of intention and behaviour by TPB measures. Results There were no significant differences in time spent walking in spring/summer compared to autumn/winter. There was no significant seasonal variation in most TPB variables, although the belief that there will be good weather was significantly higher in spring/summer (F = 19.46, p < .001). Season did not significantly predict intention or objective walking behaviour, or moderate the effects of TPB variables on intention or behaviour. Conclusion Seasonality does not influence objectively measured walking behaviour or psychological variables during a randomised controlled trial. Consequently physical activity behaviour outcomes in trials will not be biased by the season in which they are measured. Previous studies may have overestimated the extent of seasonality effects by selecting the most extreme summer and winter months to assess PA. In addition, participants recruited to behaviour change interventions might have higher levels of motivation to change and are less affected by seasonal barriers. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95932902 PMID:24499405

Variable detours in long-distance migration across ecological barriers and their relation to habitat availability at ground

PubMed Central

Hahn, Steffen; Emmenegger, Tamara; Lisovski, Simeon; Amrhein, Valentin; Zehtindjiev, Pavel; Liechti, Felix

2014-01-01

Migration detours, the spatial deviation from the shortest route, are a widespread phenomenon in migratory species, especially if barriers must be crossed. Moving longer distances causes additional efforts in energy and time, and to be adaptive, this should be counterbalanced by favorable condition en route. We compared migration patterns of nightingales that travelled along different flyways from their European breeding sites to the African nonbreeding sites. We tested for deviations from shortest routes and related the observed and expected routes to the habitat availability at ground during autumn and spring migration. All individuals flew detours of varying extent. Detours were largest and seasonally consistent in western flyway birds, whereas birds on the central and eastern flyways showed less detours during autumn migration, but large detours during spring migration (eastern flyway birds). Neither migration durations nor the time of arrival at destination were related to the lengths of detours. Arrival at the breeding site was nearly synchronous in birds flying different detours. Flying detours increased the potential availability of suitable broad-scale habitats en route only along the western flyway. Habitat availability on observed routes remained similar or even decreased for individuals flying detours on the central or the eastern flyway as compared to shortest routes. Thus, broad-scale habitat distribution may partially explain detour performance, but the weak detour-habitat association along central and eastern flyways suggests that other factors shape detour extent regionally. Prime candidate factors are the distribution of small suitable habitat patches at local scale as well as winds specific for the region and altitude. PMID:25505540

Geophysical Characterization of Groundwater-Fault Dynamics at San Andreas Oasis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faherty, D.; Polet, J.; Osborn, S. G.

2017-12-01

The San Andreas Oasis has historically provided a reliable source of fresh water near the northeast margin of the Salton Sea, although since the recent completion of the Coachella Canal Lining Project and persistent drought in California, surface water at the site has begun to disappear. This may be an effect of the canal lining, however, the controls on groundwater are complicated by the presence of the Hidden Springs Fault (HSF), a northeast dipping normal fault that trends near the San Andreas Oasis. Its surface expression is apparent as a lineation against which all plant growth terminates, suggesting that it may form a partial barrier to subsurface groundwater flow. Numerous environmental studies have detailed the chemical evolution of waters resources at San Andreas Spring, although there remains a knowledge gap on the HSF and its relation to groundwater at the site. To better constrain flow paths and characterize groundwater-fault interactions, we have employed resistivity surveys near the surface trace of the HSF to generate profiles of lateral and depth-dependent variations in resistivity. The survey design is comprised of lines installed in Wenner Arrays, using an IRIS Syscal Kid, with 24 electrodes, at a maximum electrode spacing of 5 meters. In addition, we have gathered constraints on the geometry of the HSF using a combination of ground-based magnetic and gravity profiles, conducted with a GEM walking Proton Precession magnetometer and a Lacoste & Romberg gravimeter. Seventeen gravity measurements were acquired across the surface trace of the fault. Preliminary resistivity results depict a shallow conductor localized at the oasis and discontinuous across the HSF. Magnetic data reveal a large contrast in subsurface magnetic susceptibility that appears coincident with the surface trace and trend of the HSF, while gravity data suggests a shallow, relatively high density anomaly centered near the oasis. These data also hint at a second, previously undocumented fault bounding the opposite margin of the oasis and trending subparallel to the HSF. We thus speculate that the Hidden Springs Fault and this possible secondary fault act as partial barriers to lateral subsurface flow and form a structural wedge, localizing groundwater beneath the oasis.

Prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier penetration by computational methods.

PubMed

Clark, D E

2001-09-01

This review surveys the computational methods that have been developed with the aim of identifying drug candidates likely to fail later on the road to market. The specifications for such computational methods are outlined, including factors such as speed, interpretability, robustness and accuracy. Then, computational filters aimed at predicting "drug-likeness" in a general sense are discussed before methods for the prediction of more specific properties--intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier penetration--are reviewed. Directions for future research are discussed and, in concluding, the impact of these methods on the drug discovery process, both now and in the future, is briefly considered.

Modular Approach to Structural Simulation for Vehicle Crashworthiness Prediction

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1975-03-01

A modular formulation for simulation of the structural deformation and deceleration of a vehicle for crashworthiness and collision compatibility is presented. This formulation includes three dimensional beam elements, various spring elements, rigid b...

Snake River Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus Nerka) Habitat/Limnologic Research : Annual Report 1992.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spaulding, Scott

1993-05-01

This report outlines long-term planning and monitoring activities that occurred in 1991 and 1992 in the Stanley Basin Lakes of the upper Salmon River, Idaho for the purpose of sockeye salmon nerka) recovery. Limnological monitoring and experimental sampling protocol, designed to establish a limnological baseline and to evaluate sockeye salmon production capability of the lakes, are presented. Also presented are recommended passage improvements for current fish passage barriers/impediments on migratory routes to the lakes. We initiated O. nerka population evaluations for Redfish and Alturas lakes; this included population estimates of emerging kokanee fry entering each lake in the spring andmore » adult kokanee spawning surveys in tributary streams during the fall. Gill net evaluations of Alturas, Pettit, and Stanley lakes were done in September, 1992 to assess the relative abundance of fish species among the Stanley Basin lakes. Fish population data will be used to predict sockeye salmon production potential within a lake, as well as a baseline to monitor long-term fish community changes as a result of sockeye salmon recovery activities. Also included is a paper that reviews sockeye salmon enhancement activities in British Columbia and Alaska and recommends strategies for the release of age-0 sockeye salmon that will be produced from the current captive broodstock.« less

Monitoring the Northern San Francisco Bay Water Quality with Landsat-8. Nicholas B. Tufillaroa , and Curtiss O. Davisa. aOregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA, nbt@coas.oregonstate.edu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, C. O.; Tufillaro, N.

2016-02-01

Landsat-8's high spatial resolution ( 30 nm nominal), improved signal-to-noise (12bit digitizer) and expanded band set open up new applications for coastal and in-land waters. We use a recent ocean color processor for Landsat-8 created by Vanhellemont and Ruddick (RSE, 2015)to examine changes in the Northern San Francisco Bay, in particular looking for possiblechanges due to the on-going California drought. For instance, a temporary drought barrier to prevent salt water intrusion was placed during May of 2015 at West False River in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Using the new Landsat-8 ocean color products, we illustrate how to monitor changes in macro algae and plants (Sago pondweed (native), Curly pondweed (non-native)) in regions directly effected,such as the Franks Track region. Product maps using panchromatic enhancement ( 15 m resolution) andscene based atmospheric correction allow a detailed synoptic look every 16 days during theSpring, Summer, and Fall of 2015. This work is part of a larger NASA funded project aimed atimproving the modeling and predictive capabilities of the biogeochemical state for the San Francisco Bay(Davis, PI: Impacts of Population Growth on the San Francisco Bay and Delta Ecosystem, 2014-2017).

Movements of fluvial Bonneville cutthroat trout in the Thomas Fork of the Bear River, Idaho-Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colyer, W.T.; Kershner, J.L.; Hilderbrand, R.H.

2005-01-01

The majority of interior subspecies of cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii have been extirpated from large rivers by anthropogenic activities that have fragmented habitats and introduced nonnative competitors. Selective pressures against migratory behaviors and main-stem river occupation, coupled with conservation strategies that isolate genetically pure populations above barriers, have restricted gene flow and prevented expression of the fluvial life history in many populations. Existing knowledge about the movements and home range requirements of fluvial cutthroat trout is, therefore, limited. Our objectives in this study were to (1) determine the extent of seasonal home ranges and mobility of Bonneville cutthroat trout O. c. utah (BCT) in the Thomas Fork and main-stem Bear River and (2) evaluate the role of a water diversion structure functioning as a seasonal migration barrier to fish movement. We implanted 55 BCT in the Thomas Fork of the Bear River, Idaho, with radio transmitters and located them bimonthly in 1999–2000 and weekly in 2000–2001. We found fish to be more mobile than previously reported. Individuals above the diversion barrier occupied substantially larger home ranges than those below the barrier (analysis of variance: P = 0.0003; median = 2,225 m above barrier; median = 500 m below barrier) throughout our study, and they moved more frequently (mean, 0.89 movements/contact; range, 0.57–1.00) from October 2000 through March 2001 than fish below the barrier (mean, 0.45 movements/contact; range, 0.00–1.00). During the spring of both years, we located radio-tagged fish in both upstream and neighboring tributaries as far as 86 km away from our study site. Our results document the existence of a fluvial component of BCT in the Bear River and its tributaries and suggest that successful efforts at conservation of these fish must focus on main-stem habitats and the maintenance of seasonal migration corridors.

Access to the US Department of Veterans Affairs health system: self-reported barriers to care among returnees of Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) implemented the Polytrauma System of Care to meet the health care needs of military and veterans with multiple injuries returning from combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Studies are needed to systematically assess barriers to use of comprehensive and exclusive VA healthcare services from the perspective of veterans with polytrauma and with other complex health outcomes following their service in Afghanistan and Iraq. These perspectives can inform policy with regard to the optimal delivery of care to returning veterans. Methods We studied combat veterans (n = 359) from two polytrauma rehabilitation centers using structured clinical interviews and qualitative open-ended questions, augmented with data collected from electronic health records. Our outcomes included several measures of exclusive utilization of VA care with our primary exposure as reported access barriers to care. Results Nearly two thirds of the veterans reported one or more barriers to their exclusive use of VA healthcare services. These barriers predicted differences in exclusive use of VA healthcare services. Experiencing any barriers doubled the returnees’ odds of not using VA exclusively, the geographic distance to VA barrier resulted in a 7 fold increase in the returnees odds of not using VA, and reporting a wait time barrier doubled the returnee’s odds of not using VA. There were no striking differences in access barriers for veterans with polytrauma compared to other returning veterans, suggesting the barriers may be uniform barriers that predict differences in using the VA exclusively for health care. Conclusions This study provides an initial description of utilization of VA polytrauma rehabilitation and other medical care for veteran returnees from all military services who were involved in combat operations in Afghanistan or Iraq. Our findings indicate that these veterans reported important stigmatization and barriers to receiving services exclusively from the VA, including mutable health delivery system factors. PMID:24289747

Fusion cross sections for reactions involving medium and heavy nucleus-nucleus systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atta, Debasis; Basu, D. N.

2014-12-01

Existing data on near-barrier fusion excitation functions of medium and heavy nucleus-nucleus systems have been analyzed by using a simple diffused-barrier formula derived assuming the Gaussian shape of the barrier-height distributions. The fusion cross section is obtained by folding the Gaussian barrier distribution with the classical expression for the fusion cross section for a fixed barrier. The energy dependence of the fusion cross section, thus obtained, provides good description to the existing data on near-barrier fusion and capture excitation functions for medium and heavy nucleus-nucleus systems. The theoretical values for the parameters of the barrier distribution are estimated which can be used for fusion or capture cross-section predictions that are especially important for planning experiments for synthesizing new superheavy elements.

Characterization of mean transit time at large springs in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA: A tool for assessing groundwater discharge vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Solder, John; Stolp, Bernard J.; Heilweil, Victor M.; Susong, David D.

2016-01-01

Environmental tracers (noble gases, tritium, industrial gases, stable isotopes, and radio-carbon) and hydrogeology were interpreted to determine groundwater transit-time distribution and calculate mean transit time (MTT) with lumped parameter modeling at 19 large springs distributed throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), USA. The predictive value of the MTT to evaluate the pattern and timing of groundwater response to hydraulic stress (i.e., vulnerability) is examined by a statistical analysis of MTT, historical spring discharge records, and the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. MTTs of the springs range from 10 to 15,000 years and 90 % of the cumulative discharge-weighted travel-time distribution falls within the range of 2−10,000 years. Historical variability in discharge was assessed as the ratio of 10–90 % flow-exceedance (R 10/90%) and ranged from 2.8 to 1.1 for select springs with available discharge data. The lag-time (i.e., delay in discharge response to drought conditions) was determined by cross-correlation analysis and ranged from 0.5 to 6 years for the same select springs. Springs with shorter MTTs (<80 years) statistically correlate with larger discharge variations and faster responses to drought, indicating MTT can be used for estimating the relative magnitude and timing of groundwater response. Results indicate that groundwater discharge to streams in the UCRB will likely respond on the order of years to climate variation and increasing groundwater withdrawals.

Develop an early warning climate indicator to support the Nation's resilience to 'flash' droughts over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; YANG, Z.; Solis, R.

2013-12-01

'Flash' droughts refer to those droughts that intensify rapidly in spring and summer, coupled with a strong increase of summer extreme temperatures, such as those that occurred over Texas in 2011 and the Great Plains in 2012. These droughts represent a great threat to North American water security. Climate models have failed to predict these 'flash' droughts and are ambiguous in projecting their future changes largely because of models' weaknesses in predicting summer rainfall and soil moisture feedbacks. By contrast, climate models are more reliable in simulating changes of large-scale circulation and warming of temperatures during the winter and spring seasons. We present a prototype of an early warning indicator for the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer by using the large-scale circulation and land surface conditions in winter and spring based on observed relationships between these conditions and their underlying physical mechanisms established by previous observations and numerical model simulations. This prototype 'flash' drought indicator (IFDW) currently uses global and regional reanalysis products (e.g., CFSR, MERRA, NLDAS products) in winter and spring to provide an assessment of summer drought severity similar to drought severity indices like PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) etc., provided by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) with additional information about uncertainty and past probability distributions of IFDW. Preliminary evaluation of hindcasts suggests that the indicator captures the occurrences of all the regional severe to extreme summer droughts during the past 63 years (1949-2011) over the US Great Plains, and 95% of the drought ending. This prototype IFDW has several advantages over the available drought indices that simply track local drought conditions in the past, present and future: 1) It mitigates the weakness of current climate models in predicting future summer droughts and takes advantage of model strengths and our understanding of the mechanisms that control 'flash' droughts; 2) It provides actionable drought risk information for stakeholders before droughts become fully developed in the current climate; 3) It can potentially link the future increase of temperatures in winter and spring to the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer. Such a link would make the projected changes of the 'flash' droughts more intuitive and compelling to high-level decision makers and the public.

Temporal Patterns and Environmental Correlates of Macroinvertebrate Communities in Temporary Streams.

PubMed

Botwe, Paul K; Barmuta, Leon A; Magierowski, Regina; McEvoy, Paul; Goonan, Peter; Carver, Scott

2015-01-01

Temporary streams are characterised by short periods of seasonal or annual stream flow after which streams contract into waterholes or pools of varying hydrological connectivity and permanence. Although these streams are widespread globally, temporal variability of their ecology is understudied, and understanding the processes that structure community composition in these systems is vital for predicting and managing the consequences of anthropogenic impacts. We used multivariate and univariate approaches to investigate temporal variability in macroinvertebrate compositional data from 13 years of sampling across multiple sites from autumn and spring, in South Australia, the driest state in the driest inhabited continent in the world. We examined the potential of land-use, geographic and environmental variables to predict the temporal variability in macroinvertebrate assemblages, and also identified indicator taxa, that is, those highly correlated with the most significantly associated physical variables. Temporal trajectories of macroinvertebrate communities varied within site in both seasons and across years. A combination of land-use, geographic and environmental variables accounted for 24% of the variation in community structure in autumn and 27% in spring. In autumn, community composition among sites were more closely clustered together relative to spring suggesting that communities were more similar in autumn than in spring. In both seasons, community structure was most strongly correlated with conductivity and latitude, and community structure was more associated with cover by agriculture than urban land-use. Maintaining temporary streams will require improved catchment management aimed at sustaining seasonal flows and critical refuge habitats, while also limiting the damaging effects from increased agriculture and urban developments.

Temporal Patterns and Environmental Correlates of Macroinvertebrate Communities in Temporary Streams

PubMed Central

Botwe, Paul K.; Barmuta, Leon A.; Magierowski, Regina; McEvoy, Paul; Goonan, Peter; Carver, Scott

2015-01-01

Temporary streams are characterised by short periods of seasonal or annual stream flow after which streams contract into waterholes or pools of varying hydrological connectivity and permanence. Although these streams are widespread globally, temporal variability of their ecology is understudied, and understanding the processes that structure community composition in these systems is vital for predicting and managing the consequences of anthropogenic impacts. We used multivariate and univariate approaches to investigate temporal variability in macroinvertebrate compositional data from 13 years of sampling across multiple sites from autumn and spring, in South Australia, the driest state in the driest inhabited continent in the world. We examined the potential of land-use, geographic and environmental variables to predict the temporal variability in macroinvertebrate assemblages, and also identified indicator taxa, that is, those highly correlated with the most significantly associated physical variables. Temporal trajectories of macroinvertebrate communities varied within site in both seasons and across years. A combination of land-use, geographic and environmental variables accounted for 24% of the variation in community structure in autumn and 27% in spring. In autumn, community composition among sites were more closely clustered together relative to spring suggesting that communities were more similar in autumn than in spring. In both seasons, community structure was most strongly correlated with conductivity and latitude, and community structure was more associated with cover by agriculture than urban land-use. Maintaining temporary streams will require improved catchment management aimed at sustaining seasonal flows and critical refuge habitats, while also limiting the damaging effects from increased agriculture and urban developments. PMID:26556711

Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

2016-12-01

This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project undertaken by one of the coauthors (Bohua Huang, see the paper by Huang et al. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014) in another AGU session) in which seasonal hindcasts are being carried out for each of the 57 years (1958-2014) using CFSv2.

San Andreas fault geometry at Desert Hot Springs, California, and its effects on earthquake hazards and groundwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catchings, R.D.; Rymer, M.J.; Goldman, M.R.; Gandhok, G.

2009-01-01

The Mission Creek and Banning faults are two of the principal strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley of southern California. Structural characteristics of the faults affect both regional earthquake hazards and local groundwater resources. We use seismic, gravity, and geological data to characterize the San Andreas fault zone in the vicinity of Desert Hot Springs. Seismic images of the upper 500 m of the Mission Creek fault at Desert Hot Springs show multiple fault strands distributed over a 500 m wide zone, with concentrated faulting within a central 200 m wide area of the fault zone. High-velocity (up to 5000 m=sec) rocks on the northeast side of the fault are juxtaposed against a low-velocity (6.0) earthquakes in the area (in 1948 and 1986) occurred at or near the depths (~10 to 12 km) of the merged (San Andreas) fault. Large-magnitude earthquakes that nucleate at or below the merged fault will likely generate strong shaking from guided waves along both fault zones and from amplified seismic waves in the low-velocity basin between the two fault zones. The Mission Creek fault zone is a groundwater barrier with the top of the water table varying by 60 m in depth and the aquifer varying by about 50 m in thickness across a 200 m wide zone of concentrated faulting.

Habitat selection of woodchat shrikes Lanius senator during spring stopover is related to foraging strategy

PubMed Central

Barboutis, Christos; Kassara, Christina; Giokas, Sinos

2017-01-01

Abstract Every spring a huge number of passerines cross the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea on their way to their breeding grounds. Stopover sites after such extended barriers where birds can rest, refuel, and find shelter from adverse weather, are of crucial importance for the outcome of their migration. Stopover habitat selection used by migrating birds depends on landscape context, habitat patch characteristics, as well as on the particular energetic conditions and needs of individual birds, but it is still poorly investigated. We focused on a long-distance migrating passerine, the woodchat shrike, in order to investigate for the first time the species’ habitat selection at a spring stopover site (island of Antikythira, Greece) after the crossing of the Sahara Desert and Mediterranean Sea. We implemented radio-tracking, color-ringing, and visual behavioral observations to collect data on microhabitat use. Generalized Linear Mixed Models were developed to identify the species’ most preferred microhabitat during its stopover on this low human disturbed island. We found that high maquis vegetation surrounded by low vegetation was chosen as perches for hunting. Moreover, high maquis vegetation appeared to facilitate hunting attempts toward the ground, the most frequently observed foraging strategy. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of conservation practices for the woodchat shrike and their stopover sites on Mediterranean islands. PMID:29491971

Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Gotthard, Karl; Leimar, Olof

2017-07-01

Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Iron Hydroxy Carbonate Formation in Zerovalent Iron Permeable Reactive Barriers: Characterization and Evaluation of Phase Stability

EPA Science Inventory

Predicting the long-term potential of permeable reactive barriers for treating contaminated groundwater relies on understanding the endpoints of biogeochemical reactions between influent groundwater and the reactive medium. Iron hydroxy carbonate (chukanovite) is frequently obs...

Role of tunnelling in complete and incomplete fusion induced by 9Be on 169Tm and 187Re targets at around barrier energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharab, Rajesh; Chahal, Rajiv; Kumar, Rajiv

2017-04-01

We have analyzed the complete and incomplete fusion excitation function for 9Be +169Tm, 187Re reactions at around barrier energies using the code PLATYPUS based on classical dynamical model. The quantum mechanical tunnelling correction is incorporated at near and sub barrier energies which significantly improves the matching between the data and prediction.

Factors predicting barriers to exercise in midlife Australian women.

PubMed

McGuire, Amanda; Seib, Charrlotte; Anderson, Debra

2016-05-01

Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death and disability worldwide. They are, though, largely attributable to modifiable lifestyle risk factors, including lack of exercise. This study aims to investigate what factors predict perceptions of barriers to exercise in midlife women. This cross-sectional descriptive study collected data from midlife Australian women by online questionnaire. Volunteers aged between 40 and 65 years were recruited following media publicity about the study. The primary outcome measure was perceived exercise barriers (EBBS Barriers sub-scale). Other self-report data included: exercise, smoking, alcohol, fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index, physical and mental health and well-being (MOS SF-12v2) and exercise self-efficacy. On average, the 225 participants were aged 50.9 years (SD=5.9). The significant predictors of perceived barriers to exercise were perceived benefits of exercise, exercise self-efficacy, physical well-being and mental well-being. These variables explained 41% of the variance in the final model (F (8219)=20.1, p<.01) CONCLUSIONS: In midlife women, perceptions of barriers to exercise correlate with beliefs about the health benefits of exercise, exercise self-efficacy, physical and mental well-being. These findings have application to health promotion interventions targeting exercise behaviour change in midlife women. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genomic Prediction with Pedigree and Genotype × Environment Interaction in Spring Wheat Grown in South and West Asia, North Africa, and Mexico.

PubMed

Sukumaran, Sivakumar; Crossa, Jose; Jarquin, Diego; Lopes, Marta; Reynolds, Matthew P

2017-02-09

Developing genomic selection (GS) models is an important step in applying GS to accelerate the rate of genetic gain in grain yield in plant breeding. In this study, seven genomic prediction models under two cross-validation (CV) scenarios were tested on 287 advanced elite spring wheat lines phenotyped for grain yield (GY), thousand-grain weight (GW), grain number (GN), and thermal time for flowering (TTF) in 18 international environments (year-location combinations) in major wheat-producing countries in 2010 and 2011. Prediction models with genomic and pedigree information included main effects and interaction with environments. Two random CV schemes were applied to predict a subset of lines that were not observed in any of the 18 environments (CV1), and a subset of lines that were not observed in a set of the environments, but were observed in other environments (CV2). Genomic prediction models, including genotype × environment (G×E) interaction, had the highest average prediction ability under the CV1 scenario for GY (0.31), GN (0.32), GW (0.45), and TTF (0.27). For CV2, the average prediction ability of the model including the interaction terms was generally high for GY (0.38), GN (0.43), GW (0.63), and TTF (0.53). Wheat lines in site-year combinations in Mexico and India had relatively high prediction ability for GY and GW. Results indicated that prediction ability of lines not observed in certain environments could be relatively high for genomic selection when predicting G×E interaction in multi-environment trials. Copyright © 2017 Sukumaran et al.

Developing and Delivering National-Scale Gridded Phenology Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, L.; Crimmins, M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.; Rosemartin, A.; Switzer, J.; Weltzin, J. F.

2016-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) is now producing and freely delivering daily maps and short-term forecasts of accumulated growing degree days and spring onset dates (based on the Extended Spring Indices) at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States. These data products have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, determining planting dates, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. Accumulated growing degree day (AGDD) maps were selected because accumulated temperature is a strong driver of phenological transitions in plants and animals, including leaf-out, flowering, fruit ripening and migration. The Extended Spring Indices (SI-x) are based on predictive climate models for lilac and honeysuckle leaf and bloom; they have been widely used to summarize changes in the timing of spring onset. The SI-x is used as a national indicator of climate change impacts by the US Global Change Research Program and the Environmental Protection Agency. The USA-NPN is a national-scale program that supports scientific advancement and decision-making by collecting, storing, and sharing phenology data and information. To best serve various audiences, the AGDD and SI-x gridded maps are available in various formats through a range of access tools, including the USA-NPN online visualization tool as well as industry standards compliant web services. We plan to expand the suite of gridded map products offered by the USA-NPN to include predictive maps of phenological transitions for additional plant and animal species at fine spatial and temporal resolution in the near future. USA-NPN invites you to use freely available daily and short-term forecast maps of accumulated growing degree days and spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States.

Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico.

PubMed

Parmenter, R R; Yadav, E P; Parmenter, C A; Ettestad, P; Gage, K L

1999-11-01

Plague occurs episodically in many parts of the world, and some outbreaks appear to be related to increased abundance of rodents and other mammals that serve as hosts for vector fleas. Climate dynamics may influence the abundance of both fleas and mammals, thereby having an indirect effect on human plague incidence. An understanding of the relationship between climate and plague could be useful in predicting periods of increased risk of plague transmission. In this study, we used correlation analyses of 215 human cases of plague in relation to precipitation records from 1948 to 1996 in areas of New Mexico with history of human plague cases (38 cities, towns, and villages). We conducted analyses using 3 spatial scales: global (El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indices [SOI]); regional (pooled state-wide precipitation averages); and local (precipitation data from weather stations near plague case sites). We found that human plague cases in New Mexico occurred more frequently following winter-spring periods (October to May) with above-average precipitation (mean plague years = 113% of normal rain/ snowfall), resulting in 60% more cases of plague in humans following wet versus dry winter-spring periods. However, we obtained significant results at local level only; regional state-wide precipitation averages and SOI values exhibited no significant correlations to incidence of human plague cases. These results are consistent with our hypothesis of a trophic cascade in which increased winter-spring precipitation enhances small mammal food resource productivity (plants and insects), leading to an increase in the abundance of plague hosts. In addition, moister climate conditions may act to promote flea survival and reproduction, also enhancing plague transmission. Finally, the result that the number of human plague cases in New Mexico was positively associated with higher than normal winter-spring precipitation at a local scale can be used by physicians and public health personnel to identify and predict periods of increased risk of plague transmission to humans.

Threatened fishes of the world: Moapa coriacea Hubbs and Miller, 1948 (cyprinidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scoppettone, G.G.; Goodchild, S.

2009-01-01

Moapa dace. Conservation status: Endangered (U.S. Department of the Interior 1967), Critically Endangered, IUCN (Gimenez 1996). Identification: Small embedded scales, narrow caudal peduncle and a bright black spot at the base of deeply forked tail. Pharyngeal teeth (0,5–4,0) hooked but with a grinding surface. Adults 50 to 120 mm total length. Drawing adapted from La Rivers (1962). Distribution: Endemic to the upper Muddy River system, Clark County, Nevada where the river originates from over 20 thermal springs. Prior to 1995 Moapa dace occupied 9.5 stream km including the upper Muddy River and spring-fed tributaries (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1995). Distribution has contracted to 2 km (unpublished data) since the 1995 invasion of blue tilapia, Oreochromis aurea. Abundance: In 1994 the population was about 3,800, but after tilapia invasion dropped below 1,600 (Scoppettone et al. 1998) where it has remained (unpublished data). Habitat and ecology: Omnivorous but tends toward carnivory. Feed primarily on drift in areas adjacent to fast water 26–32°C. Reproduction: Occurs year round in spring-fed tributaries to the Muddy River in water temperature of 30–32°C (Scoppettone et al. 1992). Threats: Nonnative species (Scoppettone 1993; Scoppettone et al. 1998) and ground-water pumping (Mayer and Congdon 2008). Conservation actions: Moapa Valley National Wildlife Refuge was established in the upper Muddy River for the protection and perpetuation of Moapa dace. Barrier installation and chemical removal of blue tilapia downstream of refuge habitat provides 2 km of stream without tilapia. Conservation recommendations: Eliminate tilapia from the Muddy River system and control or eliminate other nonnative species. Protect spring discharge from excessive water withdrawal. Remarks: Given a high priority for recovery by the U.S. Government.

Basal fire wounds on some southern Appalachian hardwoods

Treesearch

RM Nelson; IH Sims; MS. Abell

1933-01-01

Data from 317 oaks and yellow poplars wounded by a spring fire in Virginia were analyzed by means of multiple linear correlation. A method was obtained whereby the size of wound can be predicted provided the areas of discolored bark and diameters of injured trees are known. The method of prediction so far is safely applicable only to groups of trees similar to those...

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Barandiaran, Danny; Hilburn, Kyle; Houser, Paul; Oglesby, Bob; Pan, Ming; Pinker, Rachel; Santanello, Joe; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan;

Day length unlikely to constrain climate-driven shifts in leaf-out times of northern woody plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohner, Constantin M.; Benito, Blas M.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S.

2016-12-01

The relative roles of temperature and day length in driving spring leaf unfolding are known for few species, limiting our ability to predict phenology under climate warming. Using experimental data, we assess the importance of photoperiod as a leaf-out regulator in 173 woody species from throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and we also infer the influence of winter duration, temperature seasonality, and inter-annual temperature variability. We combine results from climate- and light-controlled chambers with species’ native climate niches inferred from georeferenced occurrences and range maps. Of the 173 species, only 35% relied on spring photoperiod as a leaf-out signal. Contrary to previous suggestions, these species come from lower latitudes, whereas species from high latitudes with long winters leafed out independent of photoperiod. The strong effect of species’ geographic-climatic history on phenological strategies complicates the prediction of community-wide phenological change.

Do summer temperatures trigger spring maturation in pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clemens, B.J.; Van De Wetering, S.; Kaufman, J.; Holt, R.A.; Schreck, C.B.

2009-01-01

Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus, return to streams and use somatic energy to fuel maturation. Body size decreases, the lamprey mature, spawn, and then die. We predicted that warm, summer temperatures (>20 ??C) would accentuate shrinkage in body size, and expedite sexual maturation and subsequent death. We compared fish reared in the laboratory at diel fluctuating temperatures of 20-24 ??C (mean = 21.8 ??C) with fish reared at cooler temperatures (13.6 ??C). The results confirmed our predictions. Lamprey from the warm water group showed significantly greater proportional decreases in body weight following the summer temperature treatments than fish from the cool water group. A greater proportion of warm water fish sexually matured (100%) and died (97%) the following spring than cool water fish (53% sexually mature, 61% died). Females tended to mature and die earlier than males, most obviously in the warm water group. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Hydrograph Predictions of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From an Ice-Dammed Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, S. W.; Jacquet, J.; McGrath, D.; Koschitzki, R.; Okuinghttons, J.

2017-12-01

Understanding the time evolution of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and ultimately predicting peak discharge, is crucial to mitigating the impacts of GLOFs on downstream communities and understanding concomitant surface change. The dearth of in situ measurements taken during GLOFs has left many GLOF models currently in use untested. Here we present a dataset of 13 GLOFs from Lago Cachet Dos, Aysen Region, Chile in which we detail measurements of key environmental variables (total volume drained, lake temperature, and lake inflow rate) and high temporal resolution discharge measurements at the source lake, in addition to well-constrained ice thickness and bedrock topography. Using this dataset we test two common empirical equations as well as the physically-based model of Spring-Hutter-Clarke. We find that the commonly used empirical relationships based solely on a dataset of lake volume drained fail to predict the large variability in observed peak discharges from Lago Cachet Dos. This disagreement is likely because these equations do not consider additional environmental variables that we show also control peak discharge, primarily, lake water temperature and the rate of meltwater inflow to the source lake. We find that the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model can accurately simulate the exponentially rising hydrographs that are characteristic of ice-dammed GLOFs, as well as the order of magnitude variation in peak discharge between events if the hydraulic roughness parameter is allowed to be a free fitting parameter. However, the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model over predicts peak discharge in all cases by 10 to 35%. The systematic over prediction of peak discharge by the model is related to its abrupt flood termination that misses the observed steep falling limb of the flood hydrograph. Although satisfactory model fits are produced, the range in hydraulic roughness required to obtain these fits across all events was large, which suggests that current models do not completely capture the physics of these systems, thus limiting their ability to truly predict peak discharges using only independently constrained parameters. We suggest what some of these missing physics might be.

Impact of vegetation feedback at subseasonal & seasonal timescales on precipitation over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Wang, G.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture-vegetation-precipitation feedbacks tend to enhance soil moisture memory in some areas of the globe, which contributes to the subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction skill. In this study, the impact of vegetation on precipitation over North America is investigated using a coupled land-atmosphere model CAM3- CLM3. The coupled model has been modified to include a predictive vegetation phenology scheme and validated against the MODIS data. Vegetation phenology is modeled by updating the leaf area index (LAI) daily in response to cumulative and concurrent hydrometeorological conditions. First, driven with the climatological SST, a large group of 5-member ensembles of simulations from the late spring and summer to the end of year are generated with the different initial conditions of soil moisture. The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies on subsequent precipitation is examined with the predictive vegetation phenology scheme disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles). The simulated climate differences between "SM" and "SM_Veg" ensembles represent the role of vegetation in soil moisture-vegetation- precipitation feedback. Experiments in this study focus on how the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on their characteristics, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage and vertical depth, and further how it is modified by the interactive vegetation. Our results, for example, suggest that the impact of late spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident in subsequent precipitation until early summer when local convective precipitation dominates. With the summer wet soil moisture anomalies, vegetation tends to enhance the positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation, while vegetation tends to suppress such positive feedback with the late spring anomalies. Second, the impact of vegetation feedback is investigated by driving the model with the inter-annually varying monthly SST (1983-1994). With the predictive vegetation phenology disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles), the simulated climates are compared with the observation. This will present the role of an interactive or predictive vegetation phenology scheme in subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction. Specifically, the extreme climate events such as drought in 1988 and flood in 1993 over the Midwestern United States will be the focus of results analyses.

The full annual carbon balance of a subtropical coniferous plantation is highly sensitive to autumn precipitation.

PubMed

Xu, Mingjie; Wang, Huimin; Wen, Xuefa; Zhang, Tao; Di, Yuebao; Wang, Yidong; Wang, Jianlei; Cheng, Chuanpeng; Zhang, Wenjiang

2017-08-30

Deep understanding of the effects of precipitation on carbon budgets is essential to assess the carbon balance accurately and can help predict potential variation within the global change context. Therefore, we addressed this issue by analyzing twelve years (2003-2014) of observations of carbon fluxes and their corresponding temperature and precipitation data in a subtropical coniferous plantation at the Qianyanzhou (QYZ) site, southern China. During the observation years, this coniferous ecosystem experienced four cold springs whose effects on the carbon budgets were relatively clear based on previous studies. To unravel the effects of temperature and precipitation, the effects of autumn precipitation were examined by grouping the data into two pools based on whether the years experienced cold springs. The results indicated that precipitation in autumn can accelerate the gross primary productivity (GPP) of the following year. Meanwhile, divergent effects of precipitation on ecosystem respiration (Re) were found. Autumn precipitation was found to enhance Re in normal years but the same regulation was not found in the cold-spring years. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of carbon balance in global climate change projections, the effects of precipitation must be considered to better constrain the uncertainties associated with the estimation.

A multichain polymer slip-spring model with fluctuating number of entanglements for linear and nonlinear rheology

DOE PAGES

Ramírez-Hernández, Abelardo; Peters, Brandon L.; Andreev, Marat; ...

2015-12-15

A theoretically informed entangled polymer simulation approach is presented for description of the linear and non-linear rheology of entangled polymer melts. The approach relies on a many-chain representation and introduces the topological effects that arise from the non-crossability of molecules through effective fluctuating interactions, mediated by slip-springs, between neighboring pairs of macromolecules. The total number of slip-springs is not preserved but, instead, it is controlled through a chemical potential that determines the average molecular weight between entanglements. The behavior of the model is discussed in the context of a recent theory for description of homogeneous materials, and its relevance ismore » established by comparing its predictions to experimental linear and non-linear rheology data for a series of well-characterized linear polyisoprene melts. Furthermore, the results are shown to be in quantitative agreement with experiment and suggest that the proposed formalism may also be used to describe the dynamics of inhomogeneous systems, such as composites and copolymers. Importantly, the fundamental connection made here between our many-chain model and the well-established, thermodynamically consistent single-chain mean-field models provides a path to systematic coarse-graining for prediction of polymer rheology in structurally homogeneous and heterogeneous materials.« less

Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

PubMed

Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

2017-11-15

Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

Ion cyclotron waves near comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crary, F. J.; Dols, V. J.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Espley, J. R.

2014-12-01

On October 19, 2014, comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) passed approximately 135,000 km from Mars. Previously,we predicted the amplitude of ion cyclotron waves which might be observed during the Siding Spring encounter. Ioncyclotron waves have been observed both in the vicinity of comets and of Mars. These waves are generated by theionization of neutrals in the flowing solar wind, which produces an unstable ring-beam velocity distribution. We estimated that, for a production rate of 2x1028 s-1, ion cyclotron wave with amplitudes over 0.1 nT would be present within ‡5 hours (1.2 million km) of closest approach. We will compare the actual observations made by the MAVEN spacecraft with these predictions. The spacecraft was close to or downstream of the martian bow shock, which complicates the interpretation of the data. Taking thisinto account, we will describe the observations and their implications for wave activity and cometary neutral production. We also present updated hybrid simulations of ion cyclotron wave generation. The simulations use our best estimate of solar wind conditions at the time of the encounter and a variable injection of 18 AMU pickup ions, at a rates consistent a model of the cometary neutrals.

Sub-micro-Newton resolution thrust balance.

PubMed

Hathaway, G

2015-10-01

Herein is described a sensitive vacuum balance for measuring the thrust produced by small (∼0.5 kg) thrusters typically employed in microsat station-keeping. The balance is based on a torsion design but incorporates jewel-pivot bearings instead of the more typical torsion spring bearings. Novel tilt control allows maintenance of true verticality of the bearing axis even while under vacuum. The low moment of inertia design allows it to measure small thrusts from high-voltage devices without direct wire conductor connections. Calibration by several means is described including use of a previously calibrated dielectric barrier discharge thruster.

Best Practices Case Study: David Weekley Homes - Eagle Springs and Waterhaven, Houston, TX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

none,

2011-04-01

Case study describing David Weekley Homes, Houston Division, has qualified more than 1,240 homes for the DOE Builders Challenge. Advanced framed 2x6 walls with open headers and two-stud corners allow more room for R-20 damp sprayed cellulose wall cavity insulation that is covered with R-5 rigid XPS foam. A radiant barrier cuts heat gain in the R-38 insulated vented attics. Draft stopping at fireplace and duct chases and behind tubs, gluing sheetrock to framing, and extensive caulking make for air-tight homes at 3.0 ACH50.

Variation in thermal tolerance and routine metabolism among spring- and stream-dwelling freshwater sculpins (Teleostei: Cottidae) of the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, S.J.; Haney, D.C.; Timmerman, C.M.

1997-01-01

Evolutionary theory predicts that some aquatic organisms may adapt by directional selection to limiting physical environmental conditions, yet empirical data are conflicting. We sought to test the assumption that sculpins (family Cottidae) inhabiting thermally stable springs of the southeastern United States differ in temperature tolerance and metabolism from populations inhabiting more thermally labile stream habitats. Spring populations of pygmy sculpins (Coitus pygmaeus) and Ozark sculpins (C. hypselurus) differed interspecifically in thermal tolerance from populations of stream-dwelling mottled (C. bairdi) and Tallapoosa sculpins (C. tallapoosae), and both stream and spring populations of banded sculpins (C. carolinae). No intra- or interspecific differences in thermal tolerance were found among populations of C. bairdi, C. tallapoosae, or C. carolinae. Coitus pygmaeus acclimated to 15??C differed intraspecifically in routine metabolism from fish acclimated to 20?? and 25??C. Cottus pygmaeus and stream-dwelling C. bairdi and C. carolinae acclimated to temperatures of 20?? and 25??C showed no interspecific differences in routine metabolism. Our results suggest that some spring-adapted populations or species may be more stenothermal than stream-dwelling congeners, but a greater understanding of the interactions of other physical and biological factors is required to better explain micro- and macrohabitat distributions of eastern North American sculpins.

Early snowmelt significantly enhances boreal springtime carbon uptake

PubMed Central

Pulliainen, Jouni; Aurela, Mika; Laurila, Tuomas; Aalto, Tuula; Takala, Matias; Salminen, Miia; Kulmala, Markku; Barr, Alan; Heimann, Martin; Lindroth, Anders; Laaksonen, Ari; Derksen, Chris; Mäkelä, Annikki; Markkanen, Tiina; Lemmetyinen, Juha; Susiluoto, Jouni; Dengel, Sigrid; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka; Vesala, Timo

2017-01-01

We determine the annual timing of spring recovery from space-borne microwave radiometer observations across northern hemisphere boreal evergreen forests for 1979–2014. We find a trend of advanced spring recovery of carbon uptake for this period, with a total average shift of 8.1 d (2.3 d/decade). We use this trend to estimate the corresponding changes in gross primary production (GPP) by applying in situ carbon flux observations. Micrometeorological CO2 measurements at four sites in northern Europe and North America indicate that such an advance in spring recovery would have increased the January–June GPP sum by 29 g⋅C⋅m−2 [8.4 g⋅C⋅m−2 (3.7%)/decade]. We find this sensitivity of the measured springtime GPP to the spring recovery to be in accordance with the corresponding sensitivity derived from simulations with a land ecosystem model coupled to a global circulation model. The model-predicted increase in springtime cumulative GPP was 0.035 Pg/decade [15.5 g⋅C⋅m−2 (6.8%)/decade] for Eurasian forests and 0.017 Pg/decade for forests in North America [9.8 g⋅C⋅m−2 (4.4%)/decade]. This change in the springtime sum of GPP related to the timing of spring snowmelt is quantified here for boreal evergreen forests. PMID:28973918

What Controls the Temperature of the Arctic Stratosphere during the Spring?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Using noble gases measured in spring discharge to trace hydrothermal processes in the Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, W.P.; Susong, D.D.; Solomon, D.K.; Heasler, H.P.

2010-01-01

Dissolved noble gas concentrations in springs are used to investigate boiling of hydrothermal water and mixing of hydrothermal and shallow cool water in the Norris Geyser Basin area. Noble gas concentrations in water are modeled for single stage and continuous steam removal. Limitations on boiling using noble gas concentrations are then used to estimate the isotopic effect of boiling on hydrothermal water, allowing the isotopic composition of the parent hydrothermal water to be determined from that measured in spring. In neutral chloride springs of the Norris Geyser Basin, steam loss since the last addition of noble gas charged water is less than 30% of the total hydrothermal discharge, which results in an isotopic shift due to boiling of ?? 2.5% ??D. Noble gas concentrations in water rapidly and predictably change in dual phase systems, making them invaluable tracers of gas-liquid interaction in hydrothermal systems. By combining traditional tracers of hydrothermal flow such as deuterium with dissolved noble gas measurements, more complex hydrothermal processes can be interpreted. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Systematic study of fission barriers of excited superheavy nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheikh, J. A.; Nazarewicz, W.; Pei, J. C.

2009-07-01

A systematic study of fission-barrier dependence on excitation energy has been performed using the self-consistent finite-temperature Hartree-Fock + BCS (FT-HF + BCS) formalism with the SkM* Skyrme energy density functional. The calculations have been carried out for even-even superheavy nuclei with Z ranging between 110 and 124. For an accurate description of fission pathways, the effects of triaxial and reflection-asymmetric degrees of freedom have been fully incorporated. Our survey demonstrates that the dependence of isentropic fission barriers on excitation energy changes rapidly with particle number, pointing to the importance of shell effects even at large excitation energies characteristic of compound nuclei. The fastest decrease of fission barriers with excitation energy is predicted for deformed nuclei around N=164 and spherical nuclei around N=184 that are strongly stabilized by ground-state shell effects. For the nuclei Pu240 and Fm256, which exhibit asymmetric spontaneous fission, our calculations predict a transition to symmetric fission at high excitation energies owing to the thermal quenching of static reflection asymmetric deformations.

Hydraulic effects on nitrogen removal in a tidal spring-fed river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hensley, Robert T.; Cohen, Matthew J.; Korhnak, Larry V.

2015-03-01

Hydraulic properties such as stage and residence time are important controls on riverine N removal. In most rivers, these hydraulic properties vary with stochastic precipitation forcing, but in tidal rivers, hydraulics variation occurs on a predictable cycle. In Manatee Springs, a highly productive, tidally influenced spring-fed river in Florida, we observed significant reach-scale N removal that varied in response to tidally driven variation in hydraulic properties as well as sunlight-driven variation in assimilatory uptake. After accounting for channel residence time and stage variation, we partitioned the total removal signal into assimilatory (i.e., plant uptake) and dissimilatory (principally denitrification) pathways. Assimilatory uptake was strongly correlated with primary production and ecosystem C:N was concordant with tissue stoichiometry of the dominant autotrophs. The magnitude of N removal was broadly consistent in magnitude with predictions from models (SPARROW and RivR-N). However, contrary to model predictions, the highest removal occurred at the lowest values of τ/d (residence time divided by depth), which occurred at low tide. Removal efficiency also exhibited significant counterclockwise hysteresis with incoming versus outgoing tides. This behavior is best explained by the sequential filling and draining of transient storage zones such that water that has spent the longest time in the storage zone, and thus had the most time for N removal, drains back into the channel at the end of an outgoing tide, concurrent with shortest channel residence times. Capturing this inversion of the expected relationship between channel residence time and N removal highlights the need for nonsteady state reactive transport models.

Chasing boundaries and cascade effects in a coupled barrier - marshes - lagoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo Trueba, J.; Mariotti, G.

2015-12-01

Low-lying coasts are often characterized by barriers islands, shore-parallel stretches of sand separated from the mainland by marshes and lagoons. We built an exploratory numerical model to examine the morphological feedbacks within an idealized barrier - marshes -lagoon system and predict its evolution under projected rates of sea level rise and sediment supply to the backbarrier environment. Our starting point is a recently developed morphodynamic model, which couples shoreface evolution and overwash processes in a dynamic framework. As such, the model is able to capture dynamics not reproduced by morphokinematic models, which advect geometries without specific concern to processes. These dynamics include periodic barrier retreat due to time lags in the shoreface response to barrier overwash, height drowning due to insufficient overwash fluxes as sea level rises, and width drowning, which occurs when the shoreface response rate is insufficient to maintain the barrier geometry during overwash-driven landward migration. We extended the model by coupling the barrier model with a model for the evolution of the marsh platform and the boundary between the marsh and the adjacent lagoon. The coupled model explicitly describes marsh edge processes and accounts for the modification of the wave regime associated with lagoon width (fetch). Model results demonstrate that changes in factors that are not typically associated with the dynamics of coastal barriers, such as the lagoon width and the rate of export/import of sediments from and to the lagoon, can lead to previously unidentified complex responses of the coupled system. In particular, a wider lagoon in the backbarrier, and/or a reduction in the supply of muddy sediments to the backbarrier, can increase barrier retreat rates and even trigger barrier drowning. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating backbarrier dynamics in models that aim at predicting the response of barrier systems.

Predicting drug penetration across the blood-brain barrier: comparison of micellar liquid chromatography and immobilized artificial membrane liquid chromatography.

PubMed

De Vrieze, Mike; Lynen, Frédéric; Chen, Kai; Szucs, Roman; Sandra, Pat

2013-07-01

Several in vitro methods have been tested for their ability to predict drug penetration across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) into the central nervous system (CNS). In this article, the performance of a variety of micellar liquid chromatographic (MLC) methods and immobilized artificial membrane (IAM) liquid chromatographic approaches were compared for a set of 45 solutes. MLC measurements were performed on a C18 column with sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), polyoxyethylene (23) lauryl ether (Brij35), or sodium deoxycholate (SDC) as surfactant in the micellar mobile phase. IAM liquid chromatography measurements were performed with Dulbecco's phosphate-buffered saline (DPBS) and methanol as organic modifier in the mobile phase. The corresponding retention and computed descriptor data for each solute were used for construction of models to predict transport across the blood-brain barrier (log BB). All data were correlated with experimental log BB values and the relative performance of the models was studied. SDS-based models proved most suitable for prediction of log BB values, followed closely by a simplified IAM method, in which it could be observed that extrapolation of retention data to 0% modifier in the mobile phase was unnecessary.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, J. T.

1986-01-01

A methodology is established to predict thermal barrier coating life in a environment similar to that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Experiments were conducted to determine failure modes of the thermal barrier coating. Analytical studies were employed to derive a life prediction model. A review of experimental and flight service components as well as laboratory post evaluations indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the topologically complex metal ceramic interface. This mechanical failure mode clearly is influenced by thermal exposure effects as shown in experiments conducted to study thermal pre-exposure and thermal cycle-rate effects. The preliminary life prediction model developed focuses on the two major damage modes identified in the critical experiments tasks. The first of these involves a mechanical driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads. The second is an environmental driving force based on experimental results, and is believed to be related to bond coat oxidation. It is also believed that the growth of this oxide scale influences the intensity of the mechanical driving force.

Development of a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model of the Rat Central Nervous System

PubMed Central

Badhan, Raj K. Singh; Chenel, Marylore; Penny, Jeffrey I.

2014-01-01

Central nervous system (CNS) drug disposition is dictated by a drug’s physicochemical properties and its ability to permeate physiological barriers. The blood–brain barrier (BBB), blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier and centrally located drug transporter proteins influence drug disposition within the central nervous system. Attainment of adequate brain-to-plasma and cerebrospinal fluid-to-plasma partitioning is important in determining the efficacy of centrally acting therapeutics. We have developed a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of the rat CNS which incorporates brain interstitial fluid (ISF), choroidal epithelial and total cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) compartments and accurately predicts CNS pharmacokinetics. The model yielded reasonable predictions of unbound brain-to-plasma partition ratio (Kpuu,brain) and CSF:plasma ratio (CSF:Plasmau) using a series of in vitro permeability and unbound fraction parameters. When using in vitro permeability data obtained from L-mdr1a cells to estimate rat in vivo permeability, the model successfully predicted, to within 4-fold, Kpuu,brain and CSF:Plasmau for 81.5% of compounds simulated. The model presented allows for simultaneous simulation and analysis of both brain biophase and CSF to accurately predict CNS pharmacokinetics from preclinical drug parameters routinely available during discovery and development pathways. PMID:24647103

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Like; Kang, Jian, E-mail: j.kang@sheffield.ac.uk; Schroth, Olaf

Large scale transportation projects can adversely affect the visual perception of environmental quality and require adequate visual impact assessment. In this study, we investigated the effects of the characteristics of the road project and the character of the existing landscape on the perceived visual impact of motorways, and developed a GIS-based prediction model based on the findings. An online survey using computer-visualised scenes of different motorway and landscape scenarios was carried out to obtain perception-based judgements on the visual impact. Motorway scenarios simulated included the baseline scenario without road, original motorway, motorways with timber noise barriers, transparent noise barriers andmore » tree screen; different landscape scenarios were created by changing land cover of buildings and trees in three distance zones. The landscape content of each scene was measured in GIS. The result shows that presence of a motorway especially with the timber barrier significantly decreases the visual quality of the view. The resulted visual impact tends to be lower where it is less visually pleasant with more buildings in the view, and can be slightly reduced by the visual absorption effect of the scattered trees between the motorway and the viewpoint. Based on the survey result, eleven predictors were identified for the visual impact prediction model which was applied in GIS to generate maps of visual impact of motorways in different scenarios. The proposed prediction model can be used to achieve efficient and reliable assessment of visual impact of motorways. - Highlights: • Motorways induce significant visual impact especially with timber noise barriers. • Visual impact is negatively correlated with amount of buildings in the view. • Visual impact is positively correlated with percentage of trees in the view. • Perception-based motorway visual impact prediction model using mapped predictors • Predicted visual impacts in different scenarios are mapped in GIS.« less

A Fresh Look at Longitudinal Standing Waves on a Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, Casey

2013-01-01

Transverse standing waves produced on a string, as shown in Fig. 1, are a common demonstration of standing wave patterns that have nodes at both ends. Longitudinal standing waves can be produced on a helical spring that is mounted vertically and attached to a speaker, as shown in Fig. 2, and used to produce both node-node (NN) and node-antinode (NA) standing waves. The resonant frequencies of the two standing wave patterns are related with theory that is accessible to students in algebra-based introductory physics courses, and actual measurements show good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

PubMed

Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

2015-09-01

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prospective associations between friendship adjustment and social strategies: friendship as a context for building social skills.

PubMed

Glick, Gary C; Rose, Amanda J

2011-07-01

The proposal that friendships provide a context for the development of social skills is widely accepted. Yet little research exists to support this claim. In the present study, children and adolescents (N = 912) were presented with vignettes in which a friend encountered a social stressor and they could help the friend and vignettes in which they encountered a stressor and could seek help from the friend. Social strategies in response to these vignettes were assessed in the fall and spring of the school year. Different indicators of friendship adjustment had unique effects on youths' strategies in response to helping tasks. Whereas having more friends predicted decreases in avoidant or hostile strategies, having high-quality friendships predicted emotionally engaged strategies that involved talking about the problem. Moreover, whereas having more friends predicted increases in relatively disengaged strategies, like distraction and acting like the problem never happened, having high-quality friendships predicted decreases in these strategies. The present study also tested whether youths' strategies in the fall predicted changes in friendship adjustment by the spring. Only strategies which may be seen as major friendship transgressions (i.e., avoiding or blaming the friend when the friend encounters a problem) predicted changes in friendship over time. Collectively, these results provide important new information on the interplay between social competencies and friendship experiences and suggest that friendships may provide a critical venue for the development of important relationship skills. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Prospective Associations Between Friendship Adjustment and Social Strategies: Friendship as a Context for Building Social Skills

PubMed Central

Glick, Gary C.; Rose, Amanda J.

2012-01-01

The proposal that friendships provide a context for the development of social skills is widely accepted. Yet little research exists to support these claims. In the present study, children and adolescents (N = 912) were presented with vignettes in which their friend encountered a social stressor and they could help the friend and vignettes in which they encountered a stressor and could seek help from the friend. Social strategies in response to these vignettes were assessed in the fall and spring of the school year. Notably, different indicators of friendship adjustment had unique effects on youths’ strategies in response to helping tasks. Whereas having more friends predicted decreases in avoidant or hostile strategies, having high-quality friendships predicted emotionally-engaged strategies that involved talking about the problem. Moreover, whereas having more friends predicted increases in relatively disengaged strategies, like distraction and acting like the problem never happened, having high-quality predicted decreases in these strategies. The present study also tested whether youths’ strategies in fall predicted changes in friendship adjustment by the spring. Only strategies which may be seen as major friendship transgressions (i.e., avoiding or blaming the friend when the friend encounters a problem) predicted changes in friendship over time. Collectively, these results provide important new information on the interplay between social competencies and friendship experiences and suggest that friendships may provide a critical venue for the development of important relationship skills. PMID:21443336

Perspectives of Nurses Pursuing Doctoral Degrees in Georgia: Implications for Recruitment.

PubMed

Wheeler, Rebecca McCombs; Eichelberger, Lisa Wright

2017-08-01

Increasing the number of nurses with doctorates is a goal of the nursing profession. The Georgia Nursing Leadership Coalition developed a survey to understand the perspectives of nurses pursuing doctoral degrees in Georgia to improve recruitment and retention strategies. A 26-item online survey was distributed to all students enrolled in Georgia-based doctoral programs in nursing in spring 2014. One hundred fifty responses were received (54% response rate). Most students first seriously considered doctoral education during their master's programs or more than 5 years into practice. For most, obtaining a doctoral degree was a personal life goal. Work-life balance was the most significant barrier. Recruitment of nurses to doctoral programs should focus on messaging, timing, and highlighting the unique aspects of programs. Schools should work to reduce barriers. Understanding students' perspectives of doctoral education in nursing can improve recruitment strategies and increase the number of nurses graduating with doctorates in Georgia. [J Nurs Educ. 2017;56(8):466-470.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Observations of highway traffic noise measurements behind barriers and comparisons to FHWA's Traffic Noise Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-20

In 1998, the United States Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) released a new tool for highway traffic noise prediction and noise barrier design, the Traffic Noise Model (TNM). In order to assess the accuracy and make recommendations on the use of ...

Nanoscale structural and chemical analysis of F-implanted enhancement-mode InAlN/GaN heterostructure field effect transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Fengzai; Lee, Kean B.; Guiney, Ivor; Frentrup, Martin; Barnard, Jonathan S.; Divitini, Giorgio; Zaidi, Zaffar H.; Martin, Tomas L.; Bagot, Paul A.; Moody, Michael P.; Humphreys, Colin J.; Houston, Peter A.; Oliver, Rachel A.; Wallis, David J.

2018-01-01

We investigate the impact of a fluorine plasma treatment used to obtain enhancement-mode operation on the structure and chemistry at the nanometer and atomic scales of an InAlN/GaN field effect transistor. The fluorine plasma treatment is successful in that enhancement mode operation is achieved with a +2.8 V threshold voltage. However, the InAlN barrier layers are observed to have been damaged by the fluorine treatment with their thickness being reduced by up to 50%. The treatment also led to oxygen incorporation within the InAlN barrier layers. Furthermore, even in the as-grown structure, Ga was unintentionally incorporated during the growth of the InAlN barrier. The impact of both the reduced barrier thickness and the incorporated Ga within the barrier on the transistor properties has been evaluated theoretically and compared to the experimentally determined two-dimensional electron gas density and threshold voltage of the transistor. For devices without fluorine treatment, the two-dimensional electron gas density is better predicted if the quaternary nature of the barrier is taken into account. For the fluorine treated device, not only the changes to the barrier layer thickness and composition, but also the fluorine doping needs to be considered to predict device performance. These studies reveal the factors influencing the performance of these specific transistor structures and highlight the strengths of the applied nanoscale characterisation techniques in revealing information relevant to device performance.

Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains, northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Shen, Y.; Wang, N.; Pan, X.; Zhang, W.; He, J.; Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in northwest China, and it is also crucial for local ecological system, economic and social sustainable development; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both eco-environment and public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature-index model based on remote sensing coupled with high-resolution meteorological data obtained from NCEP reanalysis fields that were downscaled using Weather Research Forecasting model, then bias-corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high-resolution meteorological fields derived from downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of temperature-index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using MODIS snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature-index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash-Sutchliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt runoff was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt runoff accounts for 72% of spring runoff and 21% of annual runoff. Snowmelt is the main source of runoff for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt runoff predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt-induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high-density, long-term observational data is lacking.

GIS-based groundwater potential analysis using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence with logistic regression and functional tree models.

PubMed

Chen, Wei; Li, Hui; Hou, Enke; Wang, Shengquan; Wang, Guirong; Panahi, Mahdi; Li, Tao; Peng, Tao; Guo, Chen; Niu, Chao; Xiao, Lele; Wang, Jiale; Xie, Xiaoshen; Ahmad, Baharin Bin

2018-09-01

The aim of the current study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence (WoE) with logistic regression (LR) and functional tree (FT) models. First, a total of 66 springs were identified by field surveys, out of which 70% of the spring locations were used for training the models and 30% of the spring locations were employed for the validation process. Second, a total of 14 affecting factors including aspect, altitude, slope, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), sediment transport index (STI), lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use, soil, distance to roads, and distance to streams was used to analyze the spatial relationship between these affecting factors and spring occurrences. Multicollinearity analysis and feature selection of the correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) method were employed to optimize the affecting factors. Subsequently, the novel ensembles of the WoE, LR, and FT models were constructed using the training dataset. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, standard error, confidence interval (CI) at 95%, and significance level P were employed to validate and compare the performance of three models. Overall, all three models performed well for groundwater spring potential evaluation. The prediction capability of the FT model, with the highest AUC values, the smallest standard errors, the narrowest CIs, and the smallest P values for the training and validation datasets, is better compared to those of other models. The groundwater spring potential maps can be adopted for the management of water resources and land use by planners and engineers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heterotic patterns in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.): I. Crosses between spring and Chinese semi-winter lines.

PubMed

Qian, W; Sass, O; Meng, J; Li, M; Frauen, M; Jung, C

2007-06-01

Chinese semi-winter rapeseed is genetically diverse from Canadian and European spring rapeseed. This study was conducted to evaluate the potential of semi-winter rapeseed for spring rapeseed hybrid breeding, to assess the genetic effects involved, and to estimate the correlation of parental genetic distance (GD) with hybrid performance, heterosis, general combining ability (GCA) and specific combining ability (SCA) in crosses between spring and semi-winter rapeseed lines. Four spring male sterile lines from Germany and Canada as testers were crossed with 13 Chinese semi-winter rapeseed lines to develop 52 hybrids, which were evaluated together with their parents and commercial hybrids for seed yield and oil content in three sets of field trials with 8 environments in Canada and Europe. The Chinese parental lines were not adapted to local environmental conditions as demonstrated by poor seed yields per se. However, the hybrids between the Chinese parents and the adapted spring rapeseed lines exhibited high heterosis for seed yield. The average mid-parent heterosis was 15% and ca. 50% of the hybrids were superior to the respective hybrid control across three sets of field trials. Additive gene effects mainly contributed to hybrid performance since the mean squares of GCA were higher as compared to SCA. The correlation between parental GD and hybrid performance and heterosis was found to be low whereas the correlation between GCA((f + m)) and hybrid performance was high and significant in each set of field trials, with an average of r = 0.87 for seed yield and r = 0.89 for oil content, indicating that hybrid performance can be predicted by GCA((f + m)). These results demonstrate that Chinese semi-winter rapeseed germplasm has a great potential to increase seed yield in spring rapeseed hybrid breeding programs in Canada and Europe.

Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

2017-09-01

Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive Validity Study of the APS Writing and Reading Tests [and] Validating Placement Rules for the APS Writing Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

College of the Canyons, Valencia, CA. Office of Institutional Development.

California's College of the Canyons has used the College Board Assessment and Placement Services (APS) test to assess students' abilities in basic and college English since spring 1993. These two reports summarize data from a May 1994 study of the predictive validity of the APS writing and reading tests and a June 1994 effort to validate the cut…

Predicting the At Risk Status of College Students: Males and Students with Disabilities. Final Report Presented to PAREA, Spring 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jorgensen, Shirley; Fichten, Catherine; Havel, Alice

2009-01-01

The main aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of why students abandon their studies, or perform less well than expected given their high school grades, and to develop predictive models that can help identify those students most at-risk at the time they enter college. This will allow teachers and those responsible for student…

Assessing the ability of operational snow models to predict snowmelt runoff extremes (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Restrepo, P. J.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

In the western US, the snow accumulation and melt cycle of winter and spring plays a critical role in the region's water management strategies. Consequently, the ability to predict snowmelt runoff at time scales from days to seasons is a key input for decisions in reservoir management, whether for avoiding flood hazards or supporting environmental flows through the scheduling of releases in spring, or for allocating releases for multi-state water distribution in dry seasons of year (using reservoir systems to provide an invaluable buffer for many sectors against drought). Runoff forecasts thus have important benefits at both wet and dry extremes of the climatological spectrum. The importance of the prediction of the snow cycle motivates an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the US's central operational snow model, SNOW17, in contrast to process-modeling alternatives, as they relate to simulating observed snowmelt variability and extremes. To this end, we use a flexible modeling approach that enables an investigation of different choices in model structure, including model physics, parameterization and degree of spatiotemporal discretization. We draw from examples of recent extreme events in western US watersheds and an overall assessment of retrospective model performance to identify fruitful avenues for advancing the modeling basis for the operational prediction of snow-related runoff extremes.

The value of enduring environmental surrogates as predictors of estuarine benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wildsmith, Michelle D.; Valesini, Fiona J.; Robinson, Samuel F.

2017-10-01

This study tested the extent to which spatial differences in the benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages of a temperate microtidal estuary were 'explained' by the enduring (biophysical) vs non-enduring (water and sediment quality) environmental attributes of a diverse range of habitats, and thus the potential of those environmental surrogates to support faunal prediction. Species composition differed significantly among habitats in each season, with the greatest differences occurring in winter and spring and the least in summer. The pattern of habitat differences, as defined by their enduring environmental characteristics, was significantly and well matched with that in the fauna in each season. In contrast, significant matches between the non-enduring environmental and faunal data were only detected in winter and/or spring, and to a lesser extent. Field validation of the faunal prediction capacity of the biophysical surrogate framework at various 'test' sites throughout the estuary showed good agreement between the actual vs predicted key species. These findings demonstrate that enduring environmental criteria, which can be readily measured from mapped data, provide a better and more cost-effective surrogate for explaining spatial differences in the invertebrate fauna of this system than non-enduring criteria, and are thus a promising basis for faunal prediction. The approaches developed in this study are also readily adapted to any estuary worldwide.

The Role of Family for Youth Friendships: Examining a Social Anxiety Mechanism.

PubMed

Mak, Hio Wa; Fosco, Gregory M; Feinberg, Mark E

2018-02-01

The quality of family relationships and youth friendships are intricately linked. Previous studies have examined different mechanisms of family-peer linkage, but few have examined social anxiety. The present study examined whether parental rejection and family climate predicted changes in youth social anxiety, which in turn predicted changes in friendship quality and loneliness. Possible bidirectional associations also were examined. Data for mothers, fathers, and youth (M age at Time 1 = 11.27; 52.3% were female) from 687 two-parent households over three time points are presented. Results from autoregressive, cross-lagged analyses revealed that father rejection (not mother rejection or family climate) at Time 1 (Fall of 6th Grade) predicted increased youth social anxiety at Time 2 (Spring of 7th Grade), which in turn, predicted increased loneliness at Time 3 (Spring of 8th Grade). The indirect effect of father rejection on loneliness was statistically significant. Mother rejection, father rejection, and a poor family climate were associated with decreased friendship quality and increased loneliness over time. Finally, there was some evidence of transactional associations between father rejection and youth social anxiety as well as between social anxiety and loneliness. This study's findings underscore the important role of fathers in youth social anxiety and subsequent social adjustment.

High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario.

PubMed

Hadano, Mayumi; Nasahara, Kenlo Nishida; Motohka, Takeshi; Noda, Hibiki Muraoka; Murakami, Kazutaka; Hosaka, Masahiro

2013-06-01

Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains.

Bioacoustic monitoring of nocturnal songbird migration in a southern great lakes ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Claire Elizabeth

Many species of birds produce short vocalizations during nocturnal migration. My thesis uses bioacoustic monitoring of these night flight calls to study bird migration through a southern Great Lakes ecosystem. I deployed recording devices around western Lake Erie during spring and fall migrations. Analysis of thousands of hours of recordings revealed that night flight calls accurately predicted both the magnitude of migration, as well as the timing of migrant passage, as assessed by banding. The first arrival dates for 48 species of migratory birds were significantly earlier on Pelee Island than on mainland Ontario in the spring. More flight calls were detected over Pelee Island than over mainland comparison sites. These results suggest that many birds cross Lake Erie in spring and fall, and that islands are important for migratory birds. This research provides insight into the use of acoustics for monitoring birds in active migration.

Estimating shorebird populations during spring stopover in rice fields of the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norling, Wayne; Jeske, Clinton W.; Thigpen, Tyler F.; Chadwick, Paul C.

2012-01-01

Migrating shorebird populations using approximately 2% of Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coastal rice fields were surveyed during spring migration (March–May of 1997 and 1998) using biweekly stratified random surveys conducted at 50 roadside survey points and approximately 30,000 shorebirds were observed. Shorebird counts were extrapolated and almost 1.4 million birds in 1997 and over 1.6 million birds of 31 species in 1998 were estimated to use rice field habitat for stopover sites in Louisiana and Texas. Greater than 50% of the estimated North American populations were estimated to use rice field habitats for five species, including a species of concern, Buff-breasted Sandpiper (Tryngites subruficollis) at 187%. Because of predictability of suitable rice field habitat acreage, timing of field preparation and water availability, coastal rice prairies are identified as critical spring migration stopover sites.

First-grade classroom behavior: its short- and long-term consequences for school performance.

PubMed

Alexander, K L; Entwisle, D R; Dauber, S L

1993-06-01

Effects of children's classroom behavior on school performance over a 4-year period are examined for a large, representative panel of beginning first graders. Scales developed from homeroom teachers' ratings of children in the spring of their first, second, and fourth years of school are used to predict spring marks in reading and math and spring scores on verbal and quantitative subtests from the CAT battery. The teachers' ratings cluster in three domains: Interest-Participation (I-P), Cooperation-Compliance (C-C), and Attention Span-Restlessness (A-R). The I-P and A-R ratings, but not C-C ratings, affect test score gains in first grade and marks in all 3 years. Behavior ratings from Year 1 also affect Year 2 and Year 4 performance, with indications that effects are understated over single-year periods. The importance of assessing classroom behavior in a longitudinal framework that allows for lagged and cumulative effects is discussed.

EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR INDUCED BREAKUP ON THE FUSION OF 6Li+12C AND 6He+12C SYSTEMS AROUND BARRIER ENERGIES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duhan, Sukhvinder S.; Singh, Manjeet; Kharab, Rajesh

2012-06-01

We have studied the effects of nuclear induced breakup channel coupling on the fusion cross-section for 6Li+12C and 6He+12C systems in the near barrier energy regime using the dynamic polarization potential (DPP) approach. It has been found that there is enhancement in the fusion cross-section with respect to standard one-dimensional barrier penetration model in the below barrier energy regime while at energies above the barrier there is suppression of fusion cross-section with respect to simple barrier penetration model is observed. The agreement between data and predictions for 6Li+12C system improves significantly as a result of the inclusion of nuclear induced DPP.

Fusion and direct reactions around the barrier for the systems {sup 7,9}Be,{sup 7}Li+{sup 238}U

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raabe, R.; Angulo, C.; Charvet, J. L.

2006-10-15

We present new cross section data for the complete fusion of the weakly bound systems {sup 7,9}Be and {sup 7}Li on {sup 238}U at energies around the Coulomb barrier. In the same measurement, yields for direct processes and incomplete fusion are detected. For all systems, a suppression of the complete fusion cross section around and above the barrier is observed. At energies below the barrier, the fusion of the {sup 7}Be+{sup 238}U system shows no enhancement with respect to simple model predictions.

Life modeling of thermal barrier coatings for aircraft gas turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. A.

1989-01-01

Thermal barrier coating life models developed under the NASA Lewis Research Center's Hot Section Technology (HOST) Program are summarized. An initial laboratory model and three design-capable models are discussed. Current understanding of coating failure mechanisms are also summarized. The materials and structural aspects of thermal barrier coatings have been successfully integrated under the HOST program to produce models which may now or in the near future be used in design. Efforts on this program continue at Pratt and Whitney Aircraft where their model is being extended to the life prediction of physical vapor deposited thermal barrier coatings.

Barriers to nutritional care for the undernourished hospitalised elderly: perspectives of nurses.

PubMed

Eide, Helene Dahl; Halvorsen, Kristin; Almendingen, Kari

2015-03-01

To identify what nurses experience as barriers to ensuring adequate nutritional care for the undernourished hospitalized elderly. Undernutrition occurs frequently among the hospitalised elderly and can result in a variety of negative consequences if not treated. Nevertheless, undernutrition is often unrecognised and undertreated. Nurses have a great responsibility for nutritional care, as this is part of the patient's basic needs. Exploring nurses' experiences of preventing and treating undernourishment among older patients in hospitals is therefore highly relevant. A focus group study was employed based on a hermeneutic phenomenological methodological approach. Four focus group interviews with totally 16 nurses working in one large university hospital in Norway were conducted in spring 2012. The nurses were recruited from seven somatic wards, all with a high proportion of older (≥70 years) inpatients. The data were analysed in the three interpretative contexts: self-understanding, a critical common-sense understanding and a theoretical understanding. We identified five themes that reflect barriers the nurses experience in relation to ensuring adequate nutritional care for the undernourished elderly: loneliness in nutritional care, a need for competence in nutritional care, low flexibility in food service practices, system failure in nutritional care and nutritional care is being ignored. The results imply that nutritional care at the university hospital has its limits within the hospital structure and organisation, but also regarding the nurses' competence. Moreover, the barriers revealed that the undernourished elderly are not identified and treated properly as stipulated in the recommendations in the national guidelines on the prevention and treatment of undernutrition. The barriers revealed in this study are valuable when considering improvements to nutritional care practices on hospital wards to enable undernourished older inpatients to be identified and treated properly. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Clinical Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Volcanic calderas delineate biogeographic provinces among Yellowstone thermophiles.

PubMed

Takacs-Vesbach, Cristina; Mitchell, Kendra; Jackson-Weaver, Olan; Reysenbach, Anna-Louise

2008-07-01

It has been suggested that the distribution of microorganisms should be cosmopolitan because of their enormous capacity for dispersal. However, recent studies have revealed that geographically isolated microbial populations do exist. Geographic distance as a barrier to dispersal is most often invoked to explain these distributions. Here we show that unique and diverse sequences of the bacterial genus Sulfurihydrogenibium exist in Yellowstone thermal springs, indicating that these sites are geographically isolated. Although there was no correlation with geographic distance or the associated geochemistry of the springs, there was a strong historical signal. We found that the Yellowstone calderas, remnants of prehistoric volcanic eruptions, delineate biogeographical provinces for the Sulfurihydrogenibium within Yellowstone (chi(2): 9.7, P = 0.002). The pattern of distribution that we have detected suggests that major geological events in the past 2 million years explain more of the variation in sequence diversity in this system than do contemporary factors such as habitat or geographic distance. These findings highlight the importance of historical legacies in determining contemporary microbial distributions and suggest that the same factors that determine the biogeography of macroorganisms are also evident among bacteria.

A modified SILCS contraceptive diaphragm for long-term controlled release of the HIV microbicide dapivirine.

PubMed

Major, Ian; Boyd, Peter; Kilbourne-Brook, Maggie; Saxon, Gene; Cohen, Jessica; Malcolm, R Karl

2013-07-01

There is considerable interest in developing new multipurpose prevention technologies to address women's reproductive health needs. This study describes an innovative barrier contraceptive device--based on the SILCS diaphragm--that also provides long-term controlled release of the lead candidate anti-HIV microbicide dapivirine. Diaphragm devices comprising various dapivirine-loaded polymer spring cores overmolded with a nonmedicated silicone elastomer sheath were fabricated by injection molding processes. In vitro release testing, thermal analysis and mechanical characterization were performed on the devices. A diaphragm device containing a polyoxymethylene spring core loaded with 10% w/w dapivirine provided continuous and controlled release of dapivirine over a 6-month period, with a mean in vitro daily release rate of 174 mcg/day. The mechanical properties of the new diaphragm were closely matched to the SILCS diaphragm. The study demonstrates proof of concept for a dapivirine-releasing diaphragm with daily release quantities potentially capable of preventing HIV transmission. In discontinuous clinical use, release of dapivirine may be readily extended over 1 or more years. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fault Networks in the Northwestern Albuquerque Basin and Their Potential Role in Controlling Mantle CO2 Degassing and Fluid Migration from the Valles Caldera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, J. R.; Crossey, L. J.; Karlstrom, K. E.; Fischer, T. P.; Lee, H.; McGibbon, C. J.

2015-12-01

The Rio Grande rift (RGR) has Quaternary and active volcanism and faulting that provide a field laboratory for examining links between mantle degassing and faults as fluid conduits. Diffuse and spring CO2 flux measurements were taken at 6 sites in the northwestern Albuquerque Basin (NWAB) and Valles caldera geothermal system. All sites progress to the southwest from the 1.25 Ma Valles caldera, down the rift-related Jemez fault network, to intersect with the Nacimiento fault system. Mantle CO2 and He degassing are well documented at 5 of 6 sites, with decreasing 3He/4He ratios away from the caldera. The instrument used to measure CO2 flux was an EGM-4 CO2 gas analyzer (PP systems) with an accumulation chamber. Carbonic springs at Penasco Springs (PS) and San Ysidro (SY), and the carbonate-cemented Sand Hill Fault (SHF) were targeted, all near the western border of the RGR. The SHF has no spring activity, had the smallest maximum flux of all the sites (8 g/m2d), but carbonate along the fault zone (<2 m wide) attest to past CO2 flux. The other two sites are equal distance (30-40 km) between the SHF site and Valles caldera sites. These sites have active carbonic springs that precipitate travertine mounds. Our work suggests these sites reflect intersections of the Nacimiento fault with NE trending faults that connect to the Jemez fault network. The maximum diffuse flux recorded at SY (297 g/m2d) and PS (25 g/m2d) are high, especially along the fault and near springs. At SY and PS the instruments capacity was exceeded (2,400 g/m2d) at 6 of 9 springs. Interpretations indicate a direct CO2 flux through a fault-related artesian aquifer system that is connected to magmatic gases from the caldera. Maximum diffuse flux measurements of Alamo Canyon (20,906 g/m2d), Sulphur Springs (2,400 g/m2d) and Soda Dam (1,882 g/m2d) at Valles caldera geothermal sites are comparable to Yellowstone geothermal systems. We use geospatial analysis and local geologic mapping to examine relationships of CO2 flux to structure. Travertine mounds can create impermeable barriers that modify near-surface degassing patterns, making it difficult to decipher where CO2 and fluids preferentially migrate up the damage zones in the hanging-wall or footwall. Future work will utilize grids to more accurately assess the localized affect fault zones have on CO2 flux rates.

Students' perceived stress and perception of barriers to effective study: impact on academic performance in examinations.

PubMed

Turner, J; Bartlett, D; Andiappan, M; Cabot, L

2015-11-13

To identify students' perceptions of barriers to effective study and the relationship between these and demographic characteristics, levels of perceived stress and examination performance. A questionnaire was distributed to first (BDS1) and final year (BDS5) King's College London dental undergraduates, during Spring 2013. Data were collected on students' social and working environment using a Likert scale from zero to four. Levels of perceived stress and end-of-year examination results were collected. Statistical analyses were undertaken using SPSS® and Stata® software. A response rate of 83.0% (BDS1) and 82.9% (BDS5) was achieved. Social distractions were perceived to hinder study, with median scores of two and three for females and males respectively. The mean perceived stress score differed significantly (p=0.001) between males and females. Difficulties with journey was a significant predictor of perceived stress (p=0.03) as were family responsibilities (p=0.02). Social distractions were significantly related to examination performance (p=0.001). Social distractions were the barrier most highly rated as hindering effective study. Levels of perceived stress were high and were significantly associated with gender, a difficult journey to university and family responsibilities. Social distractions were significantly related to examination performance; students rating social distractions highly, performed less well.

An ecological engineering approach for keeping water from reaching interred wastes in arid or semiarid regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, J.E.

1997-12-31

This paper describes application of a soil-plant cover system (SPCS) to preclude water from reaching interred wastes in arid and semiarid regions. Where potential evapotranspiration far exceeds precipitation, water can be kept from reaching buried wastes by (1) providing a sufficiently deep cap of soil to store precipitation that falls while plants are dormant and (2) maintaining plant cover to deplete soil moisture during the growing season, thereby emptying the storage reservoir. Research at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has shown that 2 m of soil is adequate to store moisture from snowmelt and spring rains. Healthy stands ofmore » perennial grasses and shrubs adapted to the INEL climate use all available soil moisture, even during a very wet growing season. However, burrowing by small mammals or ants may affect the performance of a SPCS by increasing infiltration of water. Intrusion barriers of gravel and cobble can be used to restrict burrowing, but emplacement of such barriers affects soil moisture storage and plant rooting depths. A replicated field experiment to investigate the implications of those effects is in progress. Incorporation of an SPCS should be considered in the design of isolation barriers for shallow land burial of hazardous wastes in and regions.« less

War experiences, general functioning and barriers to care among former child soldiers in Northern Uganda: the WAYS study.

PubMed

Amone-P'Olak, Kennedy; Jones, Peter; Meiser-Stedman, Richard; Abbott, Rosemary; Ayella-Ataro, Paul Stephen; Amone, Jackson; Ovuga, Emilio

2014-12-01

Exposure to war is associated with considerable risks for long-term mental health problems (MHP) and poor functioning. Yet little is known about functioning and mental health service (MHS) use among former child soldiers (FCS). We assessed whether different categories of war experiences predict functioning and perceived need for, sources of and barriers to MHS among FCS. Data were drawn from an on-going War-affected Youths (WAYS) cohort study of FCS in Uganda. Participants completed questionnaires about war experiences, functioning and perceived need for, sources of and barriers to MHS. Regression analyses and parametric tests were used to assess between-group differences. Deaths, material losses, threat to loved ones and sexual abuse significantly predicted poor functioning. FCS who received MHS function better than those who did not. Females reported more emotional and behavioural problems and needed MHS more than males. FCS who function poorly indicated more barriers to MHS than those who function well. Stigma, fear of family break-up and lack of health workers were identified as barriers to MHS. Various war experiences affect functioning differently. A significant need for MHS exists amidst barriers to MHS. Nevertheless, FCS are interested in receiving MHS and believe it would benefit them. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Treatment barriers identified by substance abusers assessed at a centralized intake unit.

PubMed

Rapp, Richard C; Xu, Jiangmin; Carr, Carey A; Lane, D Tim; Wang, Jichuan; Carlson, Robert

2006-04-01

The 59-item Barriers to Treatment Inventory (BTI) was administered to 312 substance abusers at a centralized intake unit following assessment but before treatment entry to assess their views on barriers to treatment. Factor analysis identified 25 items in 7 well-defined latent constructs: Absence of Problem, Negative Social Support, Fear of Treatment, Privacy Concerns, Time Conflict, Poor Treatment Availability, and Admission Difficulty. The factorial structure of the barriers is consistent with the findings of other studies that asked substance abusers about barriers to treatment and is conceptually compatible with Andersen's model of health care utilization. Factors were moderately to highly correlated, suggesting that they interact with one another. Selected characteristics were generally not predictive of barrier factors. Overall, results indicate that the BTI has good content validity and is a reliable instrument for assessing barriers to drug treatment. The potential utility of the BTI in assessment settings is discussed.

Quantum chemical ab initio prediction of proton exchange barriers between CH{sub 4} and different H-zeolites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuma, Christian; Sauer, Joachim, E-mail: js@chemie.hu-berlin.de

2015-09-14

A hybrid MP2:DFT (second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory–density functional theory) method that combines MP2 calculations for cluster models with DFT calculations for the full periodic structure is used to localize minima and transition structures for proton jumps at different Brønsted sites in different frameworks (chabazite, faujasite, ferrierite, and ZSM-5) and at different crystallographic positions of a given framework. The MP2 limit for the periodic structures is obtained by extrapolating the results of a series of cluster models of increasing size. A coupled-cluster (CCSD(T)) correction to MP2 energies is calculated for cluster models consisting of three tetrahedra. For the adsorption energies, thismore » difference is small, between 0.1 and 0.9 kJ/mol, but for the intrinsic proton exchange barriers, this difference makes a significant (10.85 ± 0.25 kJ/mol) and almost constant contribution across different systems. The total values of the adsorption energies vary between 22 and 34 kJ/mol, whereas the total proton exchange energy barriers fall in the narrow range of 152–156 kJ/mol. After adding nuclear motion contributions (harmonic approximation, 298 K), intrinsic enthalpy barriers between 134 and 141 kJ/mol and apparent energy barriers between 105 and 118 kJ/mol are predicted for the different sites examined for the different frameworks. These predictions are consistent with experimental results available for faujasite, ferrierite, and ZSM-5.« less

DFT Virtual Screening Identifies Rhodium–Amidinate Complexes As Potential Homogeneous Catalysts for Methane-to-Methanol Oxidation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fu, Ross; Nielsen, Robert J.; Goddard, William A.

2014-11-11

In the search for new organometallic catalysts for low-temperature selective conversion of CH4 to CH3OH, we apply quantum mechanical virtual screening to select the optimum combination of ligand and solvent on rhodium to achieve low barriers for CH4 activation and functionalization to recommend for experimental validation. Here, we considered Rh because its lower electronegativity compared with Pt and Pd may allow it to avoid poisoning by coordinating media. We report quantum mechanical predictions (including implicit and explicit solvation) of the mechanisms for RhIII(NN) and RhIII(NNF) complexes [where (NN) = bis(N-phenyl)benzylamidinate and (NNF) = bis(N-pentafluorophenyl)pentafluorobenzylamidinate] to catalytically activate and functionalize methanemore » using trifluoroacetic acid (TFAH) or water as a solvent. In particular, we designed the (NNF) ligand as a more electrophilic analogue to the (NN) ligand, and our results predict the lowest transition state barrier (ΔG‡ = 27.6 kcal/mol) for methane activation in TFAH from a pool of four different classes of ligands. To close the catalytic cycle, the functionalization of methylrhodium intermediates was also investigated, involving carbon–oxygen bond formation via SN2 attack by solvent, or SR2 attack by a vanadium oxo. Activation barriers for the functionalization of methylrhodium intermediates via nucleophilic attack are lower when the solvent is water, but CH4 activation barriers are higher. In addition, we have found a correlation between CH4 activation barriers and rhodium–methyl bond energies that allow us to predict the activation transition state energies for future ligands, as well.« less

Evacuating damaged and destroyed buildings on 9/11: behavioral and structural barriers.

PubMed

Groeger, Justina L; Stellman, Steven D; Kravitt, Alexandra; Brackbill, Robert M

2013-12-01

Evacuation of the World Trade Center (WTC) twin towers and surrounding buildings damaged in the September 11, 2001 attacks provides a unique opportunity to study factors that affect emergency evacuation of high rise buildings. Problem The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which structural and behavioral barriers and limitations of personal mobility affected evacuation by occupants of affected buildings on September 11, 2001. This analysis included 5,023 civilian, adult enrollees within the World Trade Center Health Registry who evacuated the two World Trade Center towers and over 30 other Lower Manhattan buildings that were damaged or destroyed on September 11, 2001. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict total evacuation time (<30 to ≤60 minutes, >1 hour to <2 hours relative to ≤30 minutes) in relation to number of infrastructure barriers and number of behavioral barriers, adjusted for demographic and other factors. A higher percentage of evacuees reported encountering at least one behavioral barrier (84.9%) than reported at least one infrastructure barrier (51.9%). This pattern was consistent in all buildings except WTC 1, the first building attacked, where >90% of evacuees reported encountering both types of barriers. Smoke and poor lighting were the most frequently-reported structural barriers. Extreme crowding, lack of communication with officials, and being surrounded by panicked crowds were the most frequently-reported behavioral barriers. Multivariate analyses showed evacuation time to be independently associated with the number of each type of barrier as well as gender (longer times for women), but not with the floor from which evacuation began. After adjustment, personal mobility impairment was not associated with increased evacuation time. Because most high-rise buildings have unique designs, infrastructure factors tend to be less predictable than behavioral factors, but both need to be considered in developing emergency evacuation plans in order to decrease evacuation time and, consequently, risk of injury and death during an emergency evacuation.

Barriers to Alcohol Screening Among Hypertensive Patients and the Role of Stigma: Lessons for the Implementation of Screening and Brief Interventions in European Primary Care Settings.

PubMed

Hanschmidt, Franz; Manthey, Jakob; Kraus, Ludwig; Scafato, Emanuele; Gual, Antoni; Grimm, Carsten; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-09-01

1. To quantify barriers to alcohol screening among hypertensive patients reported by primary healthcare professionals. 2. To examine whether education and screening frequency measures are associated with stigma-related barriers. A web survey was conducted among 3081 primary healthcare professionals from France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Participants were asked about perceived barriers to alcohol screening as free-text response. The replies were independently categorized by two raters. Stigma-related barriers were predicted by logistic regressions with education, knowledge on alcohol as risk factor and frequency of alcohol screening. In France and Italy, almost half of the reported barriers were stigma-related, whereas time constraints were cited most commonly in Spain and the UK. In Germany, nearly half of respondents rated the importance of alcohol screening for hypertension as low. Perception that regular screening is inappropriate or associated with too much effort, beliefs that screening is unnecessary, and insufficient knowledge of screening tools were cited as further barriers. Professional education on alcohol use was consistently rated to be poorer than the equivalent education on hypertension, and only a minority of respondents perceived alcohol as important risk factor for hypertension. Stigma-related barriers could not be significantly predicted by education, knowledge or screening frequency in most models. Overall, regular alcohol screening among hypertensive patients seems to be widely accepted, but further education (Germany) and structural support (Spain, UK) could contribute to increase screening rates. In France and Italy, screening uptake could be improved by addressing stigma. Alcohol screening among hypertensive patients was largely accepted among general practitioners from five different European countries. Reported screening barriers varied between countries and included time constraints, stigma and underrated importance of alcohol. Results did not indicate a positive impact of education and screening frequency on perception of stigma as barrier to screening. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Climate control of decadal-scale increases in apparent ages of eogenetic karst spring water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Jonathan B.; Kurz, Marie J.; Khadka, Mitra B.

2016-09-01

Water quantity and quality in karst aquifers may depend on decadal-scale variations in recharge or withdrawal, which we hypothesize could be assessed through time-series measurements of apparent ages of spring water. We tested this hypothesis with analyses of various age tracers (3H/3He, SF6, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113) and selected solute concentrations [dissolved oxygen (DO), NO3, Mg, and SO4] from 6 springs in a single spring complex (Ichetucknee springs) in northern Florida over a 16-yr period. These springs fall into two groups that reflect shallow short (Group 1) and deep long (Group 2) flow paths. Some tracer concentrations are altered, with CFC-12 and CFC-113 concentrations yielding the most robust apparent ages. These tracers show a 10-20-yr monotonic increase in apparent age from 1997 to 2013, including the flood recession that followed Tropical Storm Debby in mid-2012. This increase in age indicates most water discharged during the study period recharged the aquifer within a few years of 1973 for Group 2 springs and 1980 for Group 1 springs. Inverse correlations between apparent age and DO and NO3 concentrations reflect reduced redox state in older water. Positive correlations between apparent age and Mg and SO4 concentrations reflect increased water-rock reactions. Concentrated recharge in the decade around 1975 resulted from nearly 2 m of rain in excess of the monthly average that fell between 1960 and 2014, followed by a nearly 4 m deficit to 2014. This excess rain coincided with two major El Niño events during the maximum cool phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Although regional water withdrawal increased nearly 5-fold between 1980 and 2005, withdrawals represent only 2-5% of Ichetucknee River flow and are less important than decadal-long variations in precipitation. These results suggest that groundwater management should consider climate cycles as predictive tools for future water resources.

Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

2015-12-01

The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

Interactions between a Candidate Gene for Migration (ADCYAP1), Morphology and Sex Predict Spring Arrival in Blackcap Populations.

PubMed

Mettler, Raeann; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2015-01-01

Avian research has begun to reveal associations between candidate genes and migratory behaviors of captive birds, yet few studies utilize genotypic, morphometric, and phenological data from wild individuals. Previous studies have identified an association between ADCYAP1 polymorphism and autumn migratory behavior (restlessness, or zugunruhe), but little is known about the relationship between ADCYAP1 and spring migratory behavior. The timing of spring migration and arrival to the breeding ground are phenological traits which could be particularly favorable for establishing territories and acquiring mates, thus important to fitness and reproductive success. Here, we investigated how individual genotypic ADCYAP1 variation and phenotypic variation (wing length and shape) of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) affect spring arrival date across nine natural populations in Europe. We hypothesized that longer alleles should be associated with earlier spring arrival dates and expected the effect on arrival date to be stronger for males as they arrive earlier. However, we found that longer wings were associated with earlier spring arrival to the breeding grounds for females, but not for males. Another female-specific effect indicated an interaction between ADCYAP1 allele size and wing pointedness on the response of spring arrival: greater allele size had a positive effect on spring arrival date for females with rounder wings, while a negative effect was apparent for females with more pointed wings. Also, female heterozygotes with pointed wing tips arrived significantly earlier than both homozygotes with pointed wings and heterozygotes with round wings. Stable isotope ratios (δ2H) of a subset of blackcaps captured in Freiburg in 2011 allowed us also to assign individuals to their main overwintering areas in northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) Europe. NW males arrived significantly earlier to the Freiburg breeding site than both SW males and females in 2011. NW females had more pointed wing tips compared to SW females, but no difference in ADCYAP1 allele size was found between the different migration routes.

[Effects of air temperature increase and precipitation change on grain yield and quality of spring wheat in semiarid area of Northwest China].

PubMed

Wang, He-ling; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Run-yuan; Gan, Yan-tai; Niu, Jun-yi; Zhang, Kai; Zhao, Fu-nian; Zhao, Hong

2015-01-01

In order to predict effects of climate changing on growth, quality and grain yields of spring wheat, a field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of air temperature increases (0 °C, 1.0 °C, 2.0° C and 3.0°) and precipitation variations (decrease 20%, unchanging and increase 20%) on grain yields, quality, diseases and insect pests of spring wheat at the Dingxi Arid Meteorology and Ecological Environment Experimental Station of the Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (35°35' N ,104°37' E). The results showed that effects of precipitation variations on kernel numbers of spring wheat were not significant when temperature increased by less than 2.0° C , but was significant when temperature increased by 3.0° C. Temperature increase enhanced kernel numbers, while temperature decrease reduced kernel numbers. The negative effect of temperature on thousand-kernel mass of spring wheat increased with increasing air temperature. The sterile spikelet of spring wheat response to air temperature was quadratic under all precipitation regimes. Compared with control ( no temperature increase), the decreases of grain yield of spring wheat when air temperature increased by 1.0°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C under each of the three precipitation conditions (decrease 20%, no changing and increase 20%) were 12.1%, 24.7% and 42.7%, 8.4%, 15.1% and 21.8%, and 9.0%, 15.5% and 22.2%, respectively. The starch content of spring wheat decreased and the protein content increased with increasing air temperature. The number of aphids increased when air temperature increased by 2.0°C , but decreased when air temperature increased by 3.0°CT. The infection rates of rust disease increased with increasing air temperature.

Theoretical study of chain transfer to solvent reactions of alkyl acrylates.

PubMed

Moghadam, Nazanin; Srinivasan, Sriraj; Grady, Michael C; Rappe, Andrew M; Soroush, Masoud

2014-07-24

This computational and theoretical study deals with chain transfer to solvent (CTS) reactions of methyl acrylate (MA), ethyl acrylate (EA), and n-butyl acrylate (n-BA) self-initiated homopolymerization in solvents such as butanol (polar, protic), methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) (polar, aprotic), and p-xylene (nonpolar). The results indicate that abstraction of a hydrogen atom from the methylene group next to the oxygen atom in n-butanol, from the methylene group in MEK, and from a methyl group in p-xylene by a live polymer chain are the most likely mechanisms of CTS reactions in MA, EA, and n-BA. Energy barriers and molecular geometries of reactants, products, and transition states are predicted. The sensitivity of the predictions to three hybrid functionals (B3LYP, X3LYP, and M06-2X) and three different basis sets (6-31G(d,p), 6-311G(d), and 6-311G(d,p)) is investigated. Among n-butanol, sec-butanol, and tert-butanol, tert-butanol has the highest CTS energy barrier and the lowest rate constant. Although the application of the conductor-like screening model (COSMO) does not affect the predicted CTS kinetic parameter values, the application of the polarizable continuum model (PCM) results in higher CTS energy barriers. This increase in the predicted CTS energy barriers is larger for butanol and MEK than for p-xylene. The higher rate constants of chain transfer to n-butanol reactions compared to those of chain transfer to MEK and p-xylene reactions suggest the higher CTS reactivity of n-butanol.

Poloidal rotation dynamics, radial electric field, and neoclassical theory in the jet internal-transport-barrier region.

PubMed

Crombé, K; Andrew, Y; Brix, M; Giroud, C; Hacquin, S; Hawkes, N C; Murari, A; Nave, M F F; Ongena, J; Parail, V; Van Oost, G; Voitsekhovitch, I; Zastrow, K-D

2005-10-07

Results from the first measurements of a core plasma poloidal rotation velocity (upsilontheta) across internal transport barriers (ITB) on JET are presented. The spatial and temporal evolution of the ITB can be followed along with the upsilontheta radial profiles, providing a very clear link between the location of the steepest region of the ion temperature gradient and localized spin-up of upsilontheta. The upsilontheta measurements are an order of magnitude higher than the neoclassical predictions for thermal particles in the ITB region, contrary to the close agreement found between the determined and predicted particle and heat transport coefficients [K.-D. Zastrow, Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 46, B255 (2004)]. These results have significant implications for the understanding of transport barrier dynamics due to their large impact on the measured radial electric field profile.

Assessment of burnout in veterinary medical students using the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Educational Survey: a survey during two semesters.

PubMed

Chigerwe, Munashe; Boudreaux, Karen A; Ilkiw, Jan E

2014-11-28

Burnout among veterinary students can result from known stressors in the absence of a support system. The objectives of this study were to evaluate use of the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Educator Survey (MBI-ES) to assess burnout in veterinary students and evaluate the factors that predict the MBI-ES scores. The MBI-ES was administered to first (Class of 2016) and second year (Class of 2015) veterinary medical students during the 2012-2013 academic year in the fall and spring semesters. Factor analysis and test reliability for the survey were determined. Mean scores for the subscales determining burnout namely emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalization (DP) and lack of personal accomplishment (PA) were calculated for both classes in the 2 semesters. Multiple regression analysis was performed to evaluate other factors that predict the MBI-ES scores. A non-probability sampling method was implemented consisting of a voluntary sample of 170 and 123 students in the fall and spring semesters, respectively. Scores for EE, DP and PA were not different between the 2 classes within the same semester. Mean ± SD scores for EE, DP and PA for the fall semester were 22.9 ± 9.6, 5.0 ± 4.8 and 32.3 ± 6.7, respectively. Mean ± SD scores for EE, DP and PA the spring semester were 27.8 ± 10.7, 6.5 ± 6.1and 31.7 ± 6.8, respectively. The EE score was higher in spring compared to fall while DP and PA scores were not different between the 2 semesters. Living arrangements specifically as to whether or not a student lived with another veterinary medical students was the only variable significantly associated with the MBI-ES scores. Students in this study had moderate levels of burnout based on the MBI-ES scores. The MBI-ES was an acceptable instrument for assessing burnout in veterinary medical students. The EE scores were higher in the spring semester as compared to the fall semester. Thus students in the first and second years of veterinary school under the current curriculum experience the greatest levels of emotional exhaustion during the spring semester. This has administrative implications for the school, when considering the allocation and use of resources for student support systems during each semester.

Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huafeng; Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Lian, Tao

2017-03-01

In this study, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) predictability, measured by the Indian Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is comprehensively examined at the seasonal time scale, including its actual prediction skill and potential predictability, using the ENSEMBLES multiple model ensembles and the recently developed information-based theoretical framework of predictability. It was found that all model predictions have useful skill, which is normally defined by the anomaly correlation coefficient larger than 0.5, only at around 2-3 month leads. This is mainly because there are more false alarms in predictions as leading time increases. The DMI predictability has significant seasonal variation, and the predictions whose target seasons are boreal summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) are more reliable than that for other seasons. All of models fail to predict the IOD onset before May and suffer from the winter (DJF) predictability barrier. The potential predictability study indicates that, with the model development and initialization improvement, the prediction of IOD onset is likely to be improved but the winter barrier cannot be overcome. The IOD predictability also has decadal variation, with a high skill during the 1960s and the early 1990s, and a low skill during the early 1970s and early 1980s, which is very consistent with the potential predictability. The main factors controlling the IOD predictability, including its seasonal and decadal variations, are also analyzed in this study.

Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet physically plausible statistical estimation procedures may help us better untangle some climate mysteries.

Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds.

PubMed

Gale, P; Stephenson, B; Brouwer, A; Martinez, M; de la Torre, A; Bosch, J; Foley-Fisher, M; Bonilauri, P; Lindström, A; Ulrich, R G; de Vos, C J; Scremin, M; Liu, Z; Kelly, L; Muñoz, M J

2012-02-01

To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario. A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 × 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1·04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1·03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends. The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34% in this model. For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species. © 2011 Crown Copyright, AHVLA. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2011 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Molecular determinants of blood-brain barrier permeation.

PubMed

Geldenhuys, Werner J; Mohammad, Afroz S; Adkins, Chris E; Lockman, Paul R

2015-01-01

The blood-brain barrier (BBB) is a microvascular unit which selectively regulates the permeability of drugs to the brain. With the rise in CNS drug targets and diseases, there is a need to be able to accurately predict a priori which compounds in a company database should be pursued for favorable properties. In this review, we will explore the different computational tools available today, as well as underpin these to the experimental methods used to determine BBB permeability. These include in vitro models and the in vivo models that yield the dataset we use to generate predictive models. Understanding of how these models were experimentally derived determines our accurate and predicted use for determining a balance between activity and BBB distribution.

Molecular determinants of blood–brain barrier permeation

PubMed Central

Geldenhuys, Werner J; Mohammad, Afroz S; Adkins, Chris E; Lockman, Paul R

2015-01-01

The blood–brain barrier (BBB) is a microvascular unit which selectively regulates the permeability of drugs to the brain. With the rise in CNS drug targets and diseases, there is a need to be able to accurately predict a priori which compounds in a company database should be pursued for favorable properties. In this review, we will explore the different computational tools available today, as well as underpin these to the experimental methods used to determine BBB permeability. These include in vitro models and the in vivo models that yield the dataset we use to generate predictive models. Understanding of how these models were experimentally derived determines our accurate and predicted use for determining a balance between activity and BBB distribution. PMID:26305616

Chemical indicators of subsurface temperature applied to hot spring waters of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fournier, R.O.; Truesdell, A.H.

1970-01-01

Under favorable conditions the chemistry of hot springs may give reliable indications of subsurface temperatures and circulation patterns. These chemical indicators can be classified by the type of process involved: {A table is presented}. All these indicators have certain limitations. The silica geothermometer gives results independent of the local mineral suite and gas partial pressures, but may be affected by dilution. Alkali ratios are strongly affected by the local mineral suite and the formation of complex ions. Carbonate-chloride ratios are strongly affected by subsurface PCO2. The relative concentration of volatiles can be very misleading in high-pressure liquid systems. In Yellowstone National Park most thermal waters issue from hot, shallow aquifers with pressures in excess of hydrostatic by 2 to 6 bars and with large flows (the flow of hot spring water from the Park is greater than 4000 liters per second). These conditions should be ideal for the use of chemical indicators to estimate aquifer temperatures. In five drill holes aquifer temperatures were within 2??C of that predicted from the silica content of nearby hot springs; the temperature level off at a lower value than predicted in only one hole, and in four other holes drilling was terminated before the predicted aquifer temperature was reached. The temperature-Na/K ratio relationship does not follow any published experimental or empirical curve for water-feldspar or water-clay reactions. We suspect that ion exchange reactions involving zeolites in the Yellowstone rocks result in higher Na/K ratios at given temperatures than result from feldspar or clay reactions. Comparison of SiO2 and Cl/(HCO3 + CO3) suggest that because of higher subsurface PCO2 in Upper Geyser Basin a given Cl/(HCO3 + CO3) ratio there means a higher temperature than in Lower Geyser Basin. No correlation was found in Yellowstone Park between the subsurface regions of highest temperature and the relative concentration of volatile components such as boron and ammonia. ?? 1971.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffler, K. D.; Demasi, J. T.

1985-01-01

A methodology was established to predict thermal barrier coating life in an environment simulative of that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Specifically, work is being conducted to determine failure modes of thermal barrier coatings in the aircraft engine environment. Analytical studies coupled with appropriate physical and mechanical property determinations are being employed to derive coating life prediction model(s) on the important failure mode(s). An initial review of experimental and flight service components indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the metal-ceramic interface. Initial results from a laboratory test program designed to study the influence of various driving forces such as temperature, thermal cycle frequency, environment, and coating thickness, on ceramic coating spalling life suggest that bond coat oxidation damage at the metal-ceramic interface contributes significantly to thermomechanical cracking in the ceramic layer. Low cycle rate furnace testing in air and in argon clearly shows a dramatic increase of spalling life in the non-oxidizing environments.

Paleoclassical transport explains electron transport barriers in RTP and TEXTOR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Callen, J. D.; RTP Team; TEXTOR Team

2008-06-01

The recently developed paleoclassical transport model sets the minimum level of electron thermal transport in a tokamak. This transport level has proven to be in good agreement with experimental observations in many cases when fluctuation-induced anomalous transport is small, i.e. in (near-)ohmic plasmas in small to medium size tokamaks, inside internal transport barriers (ITBs) or edge transport barriers (H-mode pedestal). In this paper predictions of the paleoclassical transport model are compared in detail with data from such kinds of discharges: ohmic discharges from the RTP tokamak, EC heated RTP discharges featuring both dynamic and shot-to-shot scans of the ECH power deposition radius and off-axis EC heated discharges from the TEXTOR tokamak. For ohmically heated RTP discharges the Te profiles predicted by the paleoclassical model are in reasonable agreement with the experimental observations, and various parametric dependences are captured satisfactorily. The electron thermal ITBs observed in steady state EC heated RTP discharges and transiently after switch-off of off-axis ECH in TEXTOR are predicted very well by the paleoclassical model.

VRN1 genes variability in tetraploid wheat species with a spring growth habit.

PubMed

Konopatskaia, Irina; Vavilova, Valeriya; Kondratenko, Elena Ya; Blinov, Alexandr; Goncharov, Nikolay P

2016-11-16

Vernalization genes VRN1 play a major role in the transition from vegetative to reproductive growth in wheat. In di-, tetra- and hexaploid wheats the presence of a dominant allele of at least one VRN1 gene homologue (Vrn-A1, Vrn-B1, Vrn-G1 or Vrn-D1) determines the spring growth habit. Allelic variation between the Vrn-1 and vrn-1 alleles relies on mutations in the promoter region or the first intron. The origin and variability of the dominant VRN1 alleles, determining the spring growth habit in tetraploid wheat species have been poorly studied. Here we analyzed the growth habit of 228 tetraploid wheat species accessions and 25 % of them were spring type. We analyzed the promoter and first intron regions of VRN1 genes in 57 spring accessions of tetraploid wheats. The spring growth habit of most studied spring accessions was determined by previously identified dominant alleles of VRN1 genes. Genetic experiments proof the dominant inheritance of Vrn-A1d allele which was widely distributed across the accessions of Triticum dicoccoides. Two novel alleles were discovered and designated as Vrn-A1b.7 and Vrn-B1dic. Vrn-A1b.7 had deletions of 20 bp located 137 bp upstream of the start codon and mutations within the VRN-box when compared to the recessive allele of vrn-A1. So far the Vrn-A1d allele was identified only in spring accessions of the T. dicoccoides and T. turgidum species. Vrn-B1dic was identified in T. dicoccoides IG46225 and had 11 % sequence dissimilarity in comparison to the promoter of vrn-B1. The presence of Vrn-A1b.7 and Vrn-B1dic alleles is a predicted cause of the spring growth habit of studied accessions of tetraploid species. Three spring accessions T. aethiopicum K-19059, T. turanicum K-31693 and T. turgidum cv. Blancal possess recessive alleles of both VRN-A1 and VRN-B1 genes. Further investigations are required to determine the source of spring growth habit of these accessions. New allelic variants of the VRN-A1 and VRN-B1 genes were identified in spring accessions of tetraploid wheats. The origin and evolution of VRN-A1 alleles in di- and tetraploid wheat species was discussed.

Phenology and drivers of the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom in the open Black Sea: The application of Sverdrup's hypothesis and its refinements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikaelyan, Alexander S.; Chasovnikov, Valeriy K.; Kubryakov, Arseny A.; Stanichny, Sergey V.

2017-02-01

The phenology of the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom in the Black Sea was investigated on the basis of the satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration (Chl) for the recent 18-year period. Data for the 8-day Chl were analysed, together with changes in the nutrient concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind velocity and duration. Based on Sverdrup's Critical Depth hypothesis and its recent refinements, the Pulsing-Bloom hypothesis was proposed for the highly stratified waters of the Black Sea. This hypothesis relates the biological response to physical forcing and chemical fluxes to the photic zone and predicts the pulsing growth of phytoplankton and different patterns of phytoplankton changes in the upper layer in winter-spring during cold and regular years. The hypothesis was supported by Chl dynamics and several Chl peaks were observed during winter-spring. Normally, the highest Chl occurred in winter and a spring peak was absent, whereas in cold years, a relatively low Chl in winter was followed by a spring bloom. These events were observed only in 15% of cases and the magnitude of the bloom was associated with the intensity of winter convection that was revealed by the negative inter-annual correlation between the March Chl and the February SST. In contrast, the February Chl was positively correlated with the SST. The proposed hypothesis provides an explanation of this phenomenon on the basis of an alternation between the low-turbulence and deep-mixing regimes. This mechanism was confirmed by the positive relationships between Chl and the duration of light wind during the current period and strong wind in the previous period. Inorganic nitrogen was depleted disproportionately during the winter-spring, whereas the phosphate concentration remained relatively high. Following a cold winter, the highest phosphate concentration and extremely low nitrogen-to-phosphorus molar ratios (2) were observed in the upper 25-m layer in late spring. The regular absence of spring blooms might represent one of the consequences of the regional climate change.

Morphological constraints on changing avian migration phenology.

PubMed

Møller, A P; Rubolini, D; Saino, N

2017-06-01

Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960-2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life-history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A seasonal forecast scheme for the Inner Mongolia spring drought - Part-I: dynamic characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and forecast signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Si, Yaobing; Yu, Xiao; Wulan; Yang, Peng; Gao, Jing

2018-02-01

This study analyzed the atmospheric evolutionary characteristics of insufficient rainfall that leads to spring drought in Inner Mongolia, China. The results revealed that a weakened western Pacific subtropical high and an enlarged North Polar vortex with a western position of the East Asian trough generally result in unfavorable moisture transportation for spring precipitation in IM. It was found that an abnormal sea surface temperature in several crucial ocean areas triggers an irregular atmospheric circulation over the Eurasian continent and the Pacific region. Lower sea surface temperature (SST) during the previous autumn over tropical regions of the central-eastern Pacific and Indian oceans induce a strong Walker circulation, corresponding to a weak and southeastward-retreating subtropical high over the western Pacific during the following winter and spring. Another crucial area is the central region of the North Atlantic Ocean. Abnormally low SST of the ocean area during the preceding autumn causes the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern (the index of which is issued on the website of the Climate Prediction Center, USA) changes to a positive phase, which leads to a weak westerly over the Eurasian continent. In this case, the easterly over the North Pole becomes stronger than normal, resulting in an extended North Polar vortex during the following spring. In addition, SST differences during the previous December between the middle-eastern tropical and the northwestern regions of the Pacific Ocean reflect variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, causing the East Asian trough to move to a western position during the following spring.

The Development of Environmental Barrier Coating Systems for SiC-SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites: Environment Effects on the Creep and Fatigue Resistance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.

2014-01-01

Topics covered include: Environmental barrier coating system development: needs, challenges and limitations; Advanced environmental barrier coating systems (EBCs) for CMC airfoils and combustors; NASA EBC systems and material system evolutions, Current turbine and combustor EBC coating emphases, Advanced development, processing, testing and modeling, EBC and EBC bond coats: recent advances; Design tool and life prediction of coated CMC components; Advanced CMC-EBC rig demonstrations; Summary and future directions.

Reactive diffusion in the presence of a diffusion barrier: Experiment and model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangelinck, D.; Luo, T.; Girardeaux, C.

2018-05-01

Reactions in thin films and diffusion barriers are important for applications such as protective coatings, electrical contact, and interconnections. In this work, the effect of a barrier on the kinetics of the formation for a single phase by reactive diffusion is investigated from both experimental and modeling point of views. Two types of diffusion barriers are studied: (i) a thin layer of W deposited between a Ni film and Si substrate and (ii) Ni alloy films, Ni(1%W) and Ni(5%Pt), that form a diffusion barrier during the reaction with the Si substrate. The effect of the barriers on the kinetics of δ-Ni2Si formation is determined by in situ X ray diffraction and compared to models that explain the kinetic slowdown induced by both types of barrier. A linear parabolic growth is found for the deposited barrier with an increasing linear contribution for increasing barrier thickness. On the contrary, the growth is mainly parabolic for the barrier formed by the reaction between an alloy film and the substrate. The permeability of the two types of barrier is determined and discussed. The developed models fit well with the dedicated model experiments, leading to a better understanding of the barrier effect on the reactive diffusion and allowing us to predict the barrier behaviour in various applications.

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

Candidate genes have sex-specific effects on timing of spring migration and moult speed in a long-distance migratory bird.

PubMed

Bazzi, Gaia; Podofillini, Stefano; Gatti, Emanuele; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Cecere, Jacopo G; Spina, Fernando; Saino, Nicola; Rubolini, Diego

2017-10-01

The timing of major life-history events, such as migration and moult, is set by endogenous circadian and circannual clocks, that have been well characterized at the molecular level. Conversely, the genetic sources of variation in phenology and in other behavioral traits have been sparsely addressed. It has been proposed that inter-individual variability in the timing of seasonal events may arise from allelic polymorphism at phenological candidate genes involved in the signaling cascade of the endogenous clocks. In this study of a long-distance migratory passerine bird, the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus , we investigated whether allelic variation at 5 polymorphic loci of 4 candidate genes ( Adcyap1 , Clock , Creb1 , and Npas2 ), predicted 2 major components of the annual schedule, namely timing of spring migration across the central Mediterranean sea and moult speed, the latter gauged from ptilochronological analyses of tail feathers moulted in the African winter quarters. We identified a novel Clock gene locus ( Clock region 3) showing polyQ polymorphism, which was however not significantly associated with any phenotypic trait. Npas2 allele size predicted male (but not female) spring migration date, with males bearing longer alleles migrating significantly earlier than those bearing shorter alleles. Creb1 allele size significantly predicted male (but not female) moult speed, longer alleles being associated with faster moult. All other genotype-phenotype associations were statistically non-significant. These findings provide new evidence for a role of candidate genes in modulating the phenology of different circannual activities in long-distance migratory birds, and for the occurrence of sex-specific candidate gene effects.

Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding

PubMed Central

Bellamy, Paul E.; Hill, Ross A.; Ferns, Peter N.

2016-01-01

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships. PMID:27182711

Coarse-grained protein-protein stiffnesses and dynamics from all-atom simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, Stephen D.; Henley, C. L.

2010-03-01

Large protein assemblies, such as virus capsids, may be coarse-grained as a set of rigid units linked by generalized (rotational and stretching) harmonic springs. We present an ab initio method to obtain the elastic parameters and overdamped dynamics for these springs from all-atom molecular-dynamics simulations of one pair of units at a time. The computed relaxation times of this pair give a consistency check for the simulation, and we can also find the corrective force needed to null systematic drifts. As a first application we predict the stiffness of an HIV capsid layer and the relaxation time for its breathing mode.

Computer simulation of multigrid body dynamics and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaminadham, M.; Moon, Young I.; Venkayya, V. B.

1990-01-01

The objective is to set up and analyze benchmark problems on multibody dynamics and to verify the predictions of two multibody computer simulation codes. TREETOPS and DISCOS have been used to run three example problems - one degree-of-freedom spring mass dashpot system, an inverted pendulum system, and a triple pendulum. To study the dynamics and control interaction, an inverted planar pendulum with an external body force and a torsional control spring was modeled as a hinge connected two-rigid body system. TREETOPS and DISCOS affected the time history simulation of this problem. System state space variables and their time derivatives from two simulation codes were compared.

Technical College Teachers Sharing Their Knowledge: Does Leadership, Institutional Factors or Barriers Predict Their Practices?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tahir, Lokman Mohd; Musah, Muhamad Berhanddin; Abdullah, Abdul Halim; Musta'amal, Aede Hatib; Abdullah, Mohd Hazim Asran

2016-01-01

This study determines the preferable leadership practised by colleges' directors, institutional factors and challenges encountered in knowledge sharing in Malaysian technical higher learning institutions (HLIs). Using a pragmatic mixed-method strand, we obtained 212 teachers and instructors' viewpoints on knowledge sharing factors and barriers.…

Predictors of Career Indecision in Three Racial/Ethnic Groups of College Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lopez, Frederick G.; Ann-Yi, Sujin

2006-01-01

This study examines the contributions of career-related barrier and social support perceptions, barrier-related coping beliefs, and career decision-making self-efficacy beliefs to the prediction of career indecision in three racial/ethnic groups of college women. Results indicate that although there are no racial/ethnic differences across scores…

Testing the metabolic theory of ecology with marine bacteria: different temperature sensitivity of major phylogenetic groups during the spring phytoplankton bloom.

PubMed

Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; G Morán, Xosé Anxelu

2017-11-01

Although temperature is a key driver of bacterioplankton metabolism, the effect of ocean warming on different bacterial phylogenetic groups remains unclear. Here, we conducted monthly short-term incubations with natural coastal bacterial communities over an annual cycle to test the effect of experimental temperature on the growth rates and carrying capacities of four phylogenetic groups: SAR11, Rhodobacteraceae, Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. SAR11 was the most abundant group year-round as analysed by CARD-FISH, with maximum abundances in summer, while the other taxa peaked in spring. All groups, including SAR11, showed high temperature-sensitivity of growth rates and/or carrying capacities in spring, under phytoplankton bloom or post-bloom conditions. In that season, Rhodobacteraceae showed the strongest temperature response in growth rates, estimated here as activation energy (E, 1.43 eV), suggesting an advantage to outcompete other groups under warmer conditions. In summer E values were in general lower than 0.65 eV, the value predicted by the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE). Contrary to MTE predictions, carrying capacity tended to increase with warming for all bacterial groups. Our analysis confirms that resource availability is key when addressing the temperature response of heterotrophic bacterioplankton. We further show that even under nutrient-sufficient conditions, warming differentially affected distinct bacterioplankton taxa. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stoichiometry, Metabolism and Nutrient Limitation Across the Periodic Table in Natural Flowing-Water Chemostats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, M. J.; Nifong, R. L.; Kurz, M. J.; Cropper, W. P.; Martin, J. B.

2014-12-01

Relative supplies of macro and micronutrients (C,N,P, various metals), along with light and water, controls ecosystem metabolism, trophic energy transfer and community structure. Here we test the hypothesis, using measurements from 41 spring-fed rivers in Florida, that tissue stoichiometry indicates autotroph nutrient limitation status. Low variation in discharge, temperature and chemical composition within springs, but large variation across springs creates an ideal setting to assess the relationship between limitation and resource supply. Molar N:P ranges from 0.4 to 90, subjecting autotrophs to dramatically different nutrient supply. Over this gradient, species-specific autotroph tissue C:N:P ratios are strictly homeostatic, and with no evidence that nutrient supply affects species composition. Expanding to include 19 metals and micronutrients revealed autotrophs are more plastic in response to micronutrient variation, particularly for iron and manganese whose supply fluxes are small compared to biotic demand. Using a Droop model modified to reflect springs conditions (benthic production, light limitation, high hydraulic turnover), we show that tissue stoichiometry transitions from homeostatic to plastic with the onset of nutrient limitation, providing a potentially powerful new tool for predicting nutrient limitation and thus eutrophication in flowing waters.

Pelagic distribution of marine birds in the Eastern Bering Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, G.L.; D.M., Gould; Forsell, D.J.; Petersen, Jr., H.; Hood, Donald W.; Calder, J.A.

1981-01-01

Analyses of the most abundant marine bird species in the eastern Bering Sea indicate that their distribution and abundance are the result of complex interactions between biotic and abiotic elements of the environment. Of particular importance are the effects of ice systems, food availability, oceanographic frontal systems, and the location of suitable nesting sites. For most species, the southern ice edge acts as a barrier to northward movement in the spring. OCSEAP surveys indicate that previous estimates of seabird populations in the Bering Sea are probably extremely conservative and that more than 40 million seabirds may occupy these marine waters during the summer months.

Depositional facies and aqueous-solid geochemistry of travertine-depositing hot springs (Angel Terrace, Mammoth Hot Springs, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fouke, B. W.; Farmer, J. D.; Des Marais, D. J.; Pratt, L.; Sturchio, N. C.; Burns, P. C.; Discipulo, M. K.

2000-01-01

Petrographic and geochemical analyses of travertine-depositing hot springs at Angel Terrace, Mammoth Hot Springs, Yellowstone National Park, have been used to define five depositional facies along the spring drainage system. Spring waters are expelled in the vent facies at 71 to 73 degrees C and precipitate mounded travertine composed of aragonite needle botryoids. The apron and channel facies (43-72 degrees C) is floored by hollow tubes composed of aragonite needle botryoids that encrust sulfide-oxidizing Aquificales bacteria. The travertine of the pond facies (30-62 degrees C) varies in composition from aragonite needle shrubs formed at higher temperatures to ridged networks of calcite and aragonite at lower temperatures. Calcite "ice sheets", calcified bubbles, and aggregates of aragonite needles ("fuzzy dumbbells") precipitate at the air-water interface and settle to pond floors. The proximal-slope facies (28-54 degrees C), which forms the margins of terracette pools, is composed of arcuate aragonite needle shrubs that create small microterracettes on the steep slope face. Finally, the distal-slope facies (28-30 degrees C) is composed of calcite spherules and calcite "feather" crystals. Despite the presence of abundant microbial mat communities and their observed role in providing substrates for mineralization, the compositions of spring-water and travertine predominantly reflect abiotic physical and chemical processes. Vigorous CO2 degassing causes a +2 unit increase in spring water pH, as well as Rayleigh-type covariations between the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and corresponding delta 13C. Travertine delta 13C and delta 18O are nearly equivalent to aragonite and calcite equilibrium values calculated from spring water in the higher-temperature (approximately 50-73 degrees C) depositional facies. Conversely, travertine precipitating in the lower-temperature (< approximately 50 degrees C) depositional facies exhibits delta 13C and delta 18O values that are as much as 4% less than predicted equilibrium values. This isotopic shift may record microbial respiration as well as downstream transport of travertine crystals. Despite the production of H2S and the abundance of sulfide oxidizing microbes, preliminary delta 34S data do not uniquely define the microbial metabolic pathways present in the spring system. This suggests that the high extent of CO2 degassing and large open-system solute reservoir in these thermal systems overwhelm biological controls on travertine crystal chemistry.

Mass-spring matching layers for high-frequency ultrasound transducers: a new technique using vacuum deposition.

PubMed

Brown, Jeremy; Sharma, Srikanta; Leadbetter, Jeff; Cochran, Sandy; Adamson, Rob

2014-11-01

We have developed a technique of applying multiple matching layers to high-frequency (>30 MHz) imaging transducers, by using carefully controlled vacuum deposition alone. This technique uses a thin mass-spring matching layer approach that was previously described in a low-frequency (1 to 10 MHz) transducer design with epoxied layers. This mass- spring approach is more suitable to vacuum deposition in highfrequency transducers over the conventional quarter-wavelength resonant cavity approach, because thinner layers and more versatile material selection can be used, the difficulty in precisely lapping quarter-wavelength matching layers is avoided, the layers are less attenuating, and the layers can be applied to a curved surface. Two different 3-mm-diameter 45-MHz planar lithium niobate transducers and one geometrically curved 3-mm lithium niobate transducer were designed and fabricated using this matching layer approach with copper as the mass layer and parylene as the spring layer. The first planar lithium niobate transducer used a single mass-spring matching network, and the second planar lithium niobate transducer used a single mass-spring network to approximate the first layer in a dual quarter-wavelength matching layer system in addition to a conventional quarter-wavelength layer as the second matching layer. The curved lithium niobate transducer was press focused and used a similar mass-spring plus quarter-wavelength matching layer network. These transducers were then compared with identical transducers with no matching layers and the performance improvement was quantified. The bandwidth of the lithium niobate transducer with the single mass-spring layer was measured to be 46% and the insertion loss was measured to be -21.9 dB. The bandwidth and insertion loss of the lithium niobate transducer with the mass-spring network plus quarter-wavelength matching were measured to be 59% and -18.2 dB, respectively. These values were compared with the unmatched transducer, which had a bandwidth of 28% and insertion loss of -34.1 dB. The bandwidth and insertion loss of the curved lithium niobate transducer with the mass-spring plus quarter-wavelength matching layer combination were measured to be 68% and -26 dB, respectively; this compared with the measured unmatched bandwidth and insertion loss of 35% and -37 dB. All experimentally measured values were in excellent agreement with theoretical Krimholtz-Leedom-Matthaei (KLM) model predictions.

Depositional facies and aqueous-solid geochemistry of travertine-depositing hot springs (Angel Terrace, Mammoth Hot Springs, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.).

PubMed

Fouke, B W; Farmer, J D; Des Marais, D J; Pratt, L; Sturchio, N C; Burns, P C; Discipulo, M K

2000-05-01

Petrographic and geochemical analyses of travertine-depositing hot springs at Angel Terrace, Mammoth Hot Springs, Yellowstone National Park, have been used to define five depositional facies along the spring drainage system. Spring waters are expelled in the vent facies at 71 to 73 degrees C and precipitate mounded travertine composed of aragonite needle botryoids. The apron and channel facies (43-72 degrees C) is floored by hollow tubes composed of aragonite needle botryoids that encrust sulfide-oxidizing Aquificales bacteria. The travertine of the pond facies (30-62 degrees C) varies in composition from aragonite needle shrubs formed at higher temperatures to ridged networks of calcite and aragonite at lower temperatures. Calcite "ice sheets", calcified bubbles, and aggregates of aragonite needles ("fuzzy dumbbells") precipitate at the air-water interface and settle to pond floors. The proximal-slope facies (28-54 degrees C), which forms the margins of terracette pools, is composed of arcuate aragonite needle shrubs that create small microterracettes on the steep slope face. Finally, the distal-slope facies (28-30 degrees C) is composed of calcite spherules and calcite "feather" crystals. Despite the presence of abundant microbial mat communities and their observed role in providing substrates for mineralization, the compositions of spring-water and travertine predominantly reflect abiotic physical and chemical processes. Vigorous CO2 degassing causes a +2 unit increase in spring water pH, as well as Rayleigh-type covariations between the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and corresponding delta 13C. Travertine delta 13C and delta 18O are nearly equivalent to aragonite and calcite equilibrium values calculated from spring water in the higher-temperature (approximately 50-73 degrees C) depositional facies. Conversely, travertine precipitating in the lower-temperature (< approximately 50 degrees C) depositional facies exhibits delta 13C and delta 18O values that are as much as 4% less than predicted equilibrium values. This isotopic shift may record microbial respiration as well as downstream transport of travertine crystals. Despite the production of H2S and the abundance of sulfide oxidizing microbes, preliminary delta 34S data do not uniquely define the microbial metabolic pathways present in the spring system. This suggests that the high extent of CO2 degassing and large open-system solute reservoir in these thermal systems overwhelm biological controls on travertine crystal chemistry.

Quantitative analysis of microbial contamination in private drinking water supply systems.

PubMed

Allevi, Richard P; Krometis, Leigh-Anne H; Hagedorn, Charles; Benham, Brian; Lawrence, Annie H; Ling, Erin J; Ziegler, Peter E

2013-06-01

Over one million households rely on private water supplies (e.g. well, spring, cistern) in the Commonwealth of Virginia, USA. The present study tested 538 private wells and springs in 20 Virginia counties for total coliforms (TCs) and Escherichia coli along with a suite of chemical contaminants. A logistic regression analysis was used to investigate potential correlations between TC contamination and chemical parameters (e.g. NO3(-), turbidity), as well as homeowner-provided survey data describing system characteristics and perceived water quality. Of the 538 samples collected, 41% (n = 221) were positive for TCs and 10% (n = 53) for E. coli. Chemical parameters were not statistically predictive of microbial contamination. Well depth, water treatment, and farm location proximate to the water supply were factors in a regression model that predicted presence/absence of TCs with 74% accuracy. Microbial and chemical source tracking techniques (Bacteroides gene Bac32F and HF183 detection via polymerase chain reaction and optical brightener detection via fluorometry) identified four samples as likely contaminated with human wastewater.

Navigating north: how body mass and winds shape avian flight behaviours across a North American migratory flyway.

PubMed

Horton, Kyle G; Van Doren, Benjamin M; La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Sheldon, Daniel; Farnsworth, Andrew; Kelly, Jeffrey F

2018-05-07

The migratory patterns of birds have been the focus of ecologists for millennia. What behavioural traits underlie these remarkably consistent movements? Addressing this question is central to advancing our understanding of migratory flight strategies and requires the integration of information across levels of biological organisation, e.g. species to communities. Here, we combine species-specific observations from the eBird citizen-science database with observations aggregated from weather surveillance radars during spring migration in central North America. Our results confirm a core prediction of migration theory at an unprecedented national scale: body mass predicts variation in flight strategies across latitudes, with larger-bodied species flying faster and compensating more for wind drift. We also find evidence that migrants travelling northward earlier in the spring increasingly compensate for wind drift at higher latitudes. This integration of information across biological scales provides new insight into patterns and determinants of broad-scale flight strategies of migratory birds. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Individual differences in fifth graders’ reading and language predict their comprehension monitoring development: An eye-movement study

PubMed Central

Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

2015-01-01

In this study, we investigated fifth-graders’ (n=52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation, and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children read two sentences; the second included either a plausible or implausible word in the context of the first sentence. Stronger readers had shorter reading times overall suggesting faster processing of text. Generally fifth-graders reacted to the implausible word (i.e., longer gaze duration on the implausible v. the plausible word, which reflects lexical access). Students with stronger academic language, compared to those with weaker academic language, generally spent more time re-reading the implausible target compared to the plausible target. This difference increased from fall to spring. Results support the centrality of academic language for meaning integration, setting standards of coherence, and utilizing comprehension repair strategies. PMID:27065721

Ring distributions leading to species formation: a global topographic analysis of geographic barriers associated with ring species

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In the mid 20th century, Ernst Mayr and Theodosius Dobzhansky championed the significance of circular overlaps or ring species as the perfect demonstration of speciation, yet in the over 50 years since, only a handful of such taxa are known. We developed a topographic model to evaluate whether the geographic barriers that favor processes leading to ring species are common or rare, and to predict where other candidate ring barriers might be found. Results Of the 952,147 geographic barriers identified on the planet, only about 1% are topographically similar to barriers associated with known ring taxa, with most of the likely candidates occurring in under-studied parts of the world (for example, marine environments, tropical latitudes). Predicted barriers separate into two distinct categories: (i) single cohesive barriers (< 50,000 km2), associated with taxa that differentiate at smaller spatial scales (salamander: Ensatina eschscholtzii; tree: Acacia karroo); and (ii) composite barriers - formed by groups of barriers (each 184,000 to 1.7 million km2) in close geographic proximity (totaling 1.9 to 2.3 million km2) - associated with taxa that differentiate at larger spatial scales (birds: Phylloscopus trochiloides and Larus (sp. argentatus and fuscus)). When evaluated globally, we find a large number of cohesive barriers that are topographically similar to those associated with known ring taxa. Yet, compared to cohesive barriers, an order of magnitude fewer composite barriers are similar to those that favor ring divergence in species with higher dispersal. Conclusions While these findings confirm that the topographic conditions that favor evolutionary processes leading to ring speciation are, in fact, rare, they also suggest that many understudied natural systems could provide valuable demonstrations of continuous divergence towards the formation of new species. Distinct advantages of the model are that it (i) requires no a priori information on the relative importance of features that define barriers, (ii) can be replicated using any kind of continuously distributed environmental variable, and (iii) generates spatially explicit hypotheses of geographic species formation. The methods developed here - combined with study of the geographical ecology and genetics of taxa in their environments - should enable recognition of ring species phenomena throughout the world. PMID:22410314

Methods for estimating selected spring and fall low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa, based on data through June 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; O'Shea, Padraic S.

2016-09-19

A statewide study was led to develop regression equations for estimating three selected spring and three selected fall low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The estimation equations developed for the six low-flow frequency statistics include spring (April through June) 1-, 7-, and 30-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years and fall (October through December) 1-, 7-, and 30-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years. Estimates of the three selected spring statistics are provided for 241 U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamgages, and estimates of the three selected fall statistics are provided for 238 of these streamgages, using data through June 2014. Because only 9 years of fall streamflow record were available, three streamgages included in the development of the spring regression equations were not included in the development of the fall regression equations. Because of regulation, diversion, or urbanization, 30 of the 241 streamgages were not included in the development of the regression equations. The study area includes Iowa and adjacent areas within 50 miles of the Iowa border. Because trend analyses indicated statistically significant positive trends when considering the period of record for most of the streamgages, the longest, most recent period of record without a significant trend was determined for each streamgage for use in the study. Geographic information system software was used to measure 63 selected basin characteristics for each of the 211streamgages used to develop the regional regression equations. The study area was divided into three low-flow regions that were defined in a previous study for the development of regional regression equations.Because several streamgages included in the development of regional regression equations have estimates of zero flow calculated from observed streamflow for selected spring and fall low-flow frequency statistics, the final equations for the three low-flow regions were developed using two types of regression analyses—left-censored and generalized-least-squares regression analyses. A total of 211 streamgages were included in the development of nine spring regression equations—three equations for each of the three low-flow regions. A total of 208 streamgages were included in the development of nine fall regression equations—three equations for each of the three low-flow regions. A censoring threshold was used to develop 15 left-censored regression equations to estimate the three fall low-flow frequency statistics for each of the three low-flow regions and to estimate the three spring low-flow frequency statistics for the southern and northwest regions. For the northeast region, generalized-least-squares regression was used to develop three equations to estimate the three spring low-flow frequency statistics. For the northeast region, average standard errors of prediction range from 32.4 to 48.4 percent for the spring equations and average standard errors of estimate range from 56.4 to 73.8 percent for the fall equations. For the northwest region, average standard errors of estimate range from 58.9 to 62.1 percent for the spring equations and from 83.2 to 109.4 percent for the fall equations. For the southern region, average standard errors of estimate range from 43.2 to 64.0 percent for the spring equations and from 78.1 to 78.7 percent for the fall equations.The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with low flows not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. The regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system application. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged stream site and compute estimates of the six selected spring and fall low-flow statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged site are provided. StreamStats also allows users to click on any Iowa streamgage to obtain computed estimates for the six selected spring and fall low-flow statistics.

Storm impacts and shoreline recovery: Mechanisms and controls in the southern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, S. M.; Spencer, T.; Christie, E. K.

2017-04-01

Storm impacts play a significant role in shoreline dynamics on barrier coastlines. Furthermore, inter-storm recovery is a key parameter determining long-term coastal resilience to climate change, storminess variability and sea level rise. Over the last decade, four extreme storms, with strong energetic waves and high still water levels resulting from high spring tides and large skew surge residuals, have impacted the shoreline of the southern North Sea. The 5th December 2013 storm, with the highest run-up levels recorded in the last 60 years, resulted in large sections of the frontline of the North Norfolk coast being translated inland by over 10 m. Storms in March and November 2007 also generated barrier scarping and shoreline retreat, although not on the scale of 2013. Between 2008 and 2013, a calm period, recovery dominated barrier position and elevation but was spatially differentiated alongshore. For one study area, Scolt Head Island, no recovery was seen; this section of the coast is being reset episodically landwards during storms. By contrast, the study area at Holkham Bay showed considerable recovery between 2008 and 2013, with barrier sections developing seaward through foredune recovery. The third study area, Brancaster Bay, showed partial recovery in barrier location and elevation. Results suggest that recovery is promoted by high sediment supply and onshore intertidal bar migration, at rates of 40 m a- 1. These processes bring sand to elevations where substrate drying enables aeolian processes to entrain and transport sand from upper foreshores to foredunes. We identify three potential sediment transport pathways that create a region of positive diffusivity at Holkham Bay. During calm periods, a general westward movement of sediment from the drift divide at Sheringham sources the intertidal bar and foredune development at Holkham Bay. However, during and following storms the drift switches to eastward, not only on the beach itself but also below the - 7 m isobath. Sediment from the eroding barrier at Brancaster Bay, and especially Scolt Head Island, also sources the sediment sink of Holkham Bay. Knowledge of foredune growth and barrier recovery in natural systems are vital aspects of future coastal management planning with accelerated sea-level rise and storminess variability.

High temperature annealing of fission tracks in fluorapatite, Santa Fe Springs oil field, Los Angeles Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naeser, Nancy D.; Crowley, Kevin D.; McCulloh, Thane H.; Reaves, Chris M.; ,

1990-01-01

Annealing of fission tracks is a kinetic process dependent primarily on temperature and to a laser extent on time. Several kinetic models of apatite annealing have been proposed. The predictive capabilities of these models for long-term geologic annealing have been limited to qualitative or semiquantitative at best, because of uncertainties associated with (1) the extrapolation of laboratory observations to geologic conditions, (2) the thermal histories of field samples, and (3) to some extent, the effect of apatite composition on reported annealing temperatures. Thermal history in the Santa Fe Springs oil field, Los Angeles Basin, California, is constrained by an exceptionally well known burial history and present-day temperature gradient. Sediment burial histories are continuous and tightly constrained from about 9 Ma to present, with an important tie at 3.4 Ma. No surface erosion and virtually no uplift were recorded during or since deposition of these sediments, so the burial history is simple and uniquely defined. Temperature gradient (???40??C km-1) is well established from oil-field operations. Fission-track data from the Santa Fe Springs area should thus provide one critical field test of kinetic annealing models for apatite. Fission-track analysis has been performed on apatites from sandstones of Pliocene to Miocene age from a deep drill hole at Santa Fe Springs. Apatite composition, determined by electron microprobe, is fluorapatite [average composition (F1.78Cl0.01OH0.21)] with very low chlorine content [less than Durango apatite; sample means range from 0.0 to 0.04 Cl atoms, calculated on the basis of 26(O, F, Cl, OH)], suggesting that the apatite is not unusually resistant to annealing. Fission tracks are preserved in these apatites at exceptionally high present-day temperatures. Track loss is not complete until temperatures reach the extreme of 167-178??C (at 3795-4090 m depth). The temperature-time annealing relationships indicated by the new data from Santa Fe Springs conflict with predictions based on previously published, commonly used, kinetic annealing models for apatite. Work is proceeding on samples from another area of the basin that may resolve this discrepancy.

Quantifying groundwater discharge through fringing wetlands to estuaries: Seasonal variability, methods comparison, and implications for wetland-estuary exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tobias, C.R.; Harvey, J.W.; Anderson, I.C.

2001-01-01

Because groundwater discharge along coastal shorelines is often concentrated in zones inhabited by fringing wetlands, accurately estimating discharge is essential for understanding its effect on the function and maintenance of these ecosystems. Most previous estimates of groundwater discharge to coastal wetlands have been temporally limited and have used only a single approach to estimate discharge. Furthermore, groundwater input has not been considered as a major mechanism controlling pore-water flushing. We estimated seasonally varying groundwater discharge into a fringing estuarine wetland using three independent methods (Darcy's Law, salt balance, and Br- tracer). Seasonal patterns of discharge predicted by both Darcy's Law and the salt balance yielded similar seasonal patterns with discharge maxima and minima in spring and early fall, respectively. They differed, however, in the estimated magnitude of discharge by two- to fourfold in spring and by 10-fold in fall. Darcy estimates of mean discharge ranged between -8.0 and 80 L m-2 d-1, whereas the salt balance predicted groundwater discharge of 0.6 to 22 L m-2 d-1. Results from the Br- tracer experiment estimated discharge at 16 L m-2 d-t, or nearly equal to the salt balance estimate at that time. Based upon the tracer test, pore-water conductivity profiles, and error estimates for the Darcy and salt balance approaches, we concluded that the salt balance provided a more certain estimate of groundwater discharge at high flow (spring). In contrast, the Darcy method provided a more reliable estimate during low flow (fall). Groundwater flushing of pore water in the spring exported solutes to the estuary at rates similar to tidally driven surface exchange seen in previous studies. Based on pore-water turnover times, the groundwater-driven flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and NH4+ to the estuary was 11.9, 1.6, and 1.3 g C or g N m-2 wetland for the 90 d encompassing peak spring discharge. Groundwater-induced flushing of the wetland subsurface therefore represents an important mechanism by which narrow fringing marshes may seasonally relieve salt stress and export material to adjacent water masses.

Energy and Environment 1990: Transportation-induced noise and air pollution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-01-01

Contents: public reaction to low levels of aircraft noise; airport noise insulation of homes surrounding stapleton international airport; sound insulation and thermal performance modifications: case study for three dwellings near bwi airport; single-number ratings for outdoor-indoor sound insulation; control of wheel squeal noise in rail transit cars; knowledge-based preprocessor for traffic noise prediction; barrier overlap analysis procedure; atmospheric effects on traffic noise propagation; predicting stop-and-go traffic noise with stamina 2.0; feasibility of transparent noise barriers; field testing of the effectiveness of open-graded asphalt pavement in reducing tire noise from highway vehicles; cost of noise barrier construction in the united states;more » comparisons of emissions of transit buses using methanol and diesel fuel; high-speed rail system noise assessment; energy-related, environmental, and economic benefits of florida's high-speed rail and maglev systems proposals.« less

Health care barriers, racism, and intersectionality in Australia.

PubMed

Bastos, João L; Harnois, Catherine E; Paradies, Yin C

2018-02-01

While racism has been shown to negatively affect health care quality, little is known about the extent to which racial discrimination works with and through gender, class, and sexuality to predict barriers to health care (e.g., perceived difficulty accessing health services). Additionally, most existing studies focus on racial disparities in the U.S. context, with few examining marginalized groups in other countries. To address these knowledge gaps, we analyze data from the 2014 Australian General Social Survey, a nationally representative survey of individuals aged 15 and older living in 12,932 private dwellings. Following an intersectional perspective, we estimate a series of multivariable logit regression models to assess three hypotheses: racial discrimination will be positively associated with perceived barriers to health care (H1); the effect of perceived racial discrimination will be particularly severe for women, sexual minorities, and low socio-economic status individuals (H2); and, in addition to racial discrimination, other forms of perceived discrimination will negatively impact perceived barriers to health care (H3). Findings show that perceptions of racial discrimination are significantly associated with perceived barriers to health care, though this relationship is not significantly stronger for low status groups. In addition, our analyses reveal that perceived racism and other forms of discrimination combine to predict perceived barriers to health care. Taken together, these results speak to the benefits of an intersectional approach for examining racial inequalities in perceived access to health care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCall, R.T.; Van Theil de Vries, J. S. M.; Plant, N.G.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Roelvink, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Reniers, A.J.H.M.

2010-01-01

A 2DH numerical, model which is capable of computing nearshore circulation and morphodynamics, including dune erosion, breaching and overwash, is used to simulate overwash caused by Hurricane Ivan (2004) on a barrier island. The model is forced using parametric wave and surge time series based on field data and large-scale numerical model results. The model predicted beach face and dune erosion reasonably well as well as the development of washover fans. Furthermore, the model demonstrated considerable quantitative skill (upwards of 66% of variance explained, maximum bias - 0.21 m) in hindcasting the post-storm shape and elevation of the subaerial barrier island when a sheet flow sediment transport limiter was applied. The prediction skill ranged between 0.66 and 0.77 in a series of sensitivity tests in which several hydraulic forcing parameters were varied. The sensitivity studies showed that the variations in the incident wave height and wave period affected the entire simulated island morphology while variations in the surge level gradient between the ocean and back barrier bay affected the amount of deposition on the back barrier and in the back barrier bay. The model sensitivity to the sheet flow sediment transport limiter, which served as a proxy for unknown factors controlling the resistance to erosion, was significantly greater than the sensitivity to the hydraulic forcing parameters. If no limiter was applied the simulated morphological response of the barrier island was an order of magnitude greater than the measured morphological response.

Reports of the AAAI 2009 Spring Symposia: Technosocial Predictive Analytics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

2009-10-01

The Technosocial Predictive Analytics AAAI symposium was held at Stanford University, Stanford, CA, March 23-25, 2009. The goal of this symposium was to explore new methods for anticipatory analytical thinking that provide decision advantage through the integration of human and physical models. Special attention was also placed on how to leverage supporting disciplines to (a) facilitate the achievement of knowledge inputs, (b) improve the user experience, and (c) foster social intelligence through collaborative/competitive work.

Seasonal drought ensemble predictions based on multiple climate models in the upper Han River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Feng; Ye, Aizhong; Duan, Qingyun

2017-03-01

An experimental seasonal drought forecasting system is developed based on 29-year (1982-2010) seasonal meteorological hindcasts generated by the climate models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. This system made use of a bias correction and spatial downscaling method, and a distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrologic model. DTVGM was calibrated using observed daily hydrological data and its streamflow simulations achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.727 and 0.724 during calibration (1978-1995) and validation (1996-2005) periods, respectively, at the Danjiangkou reservoir station. The experimental seasonal drought forecasting system (known as NMME-DTVGM) is used to generate seasonal drought forecasts. The forecasts were evaluated against the reference forecasts (i.e., persistence forecast and climatological forecast). The NMME-DTVGM drought forecasts have higher detectability and accuracy and lower false alarm rate than the reference forecasts at different lead times (from 1 to 4 months) during the cold-dry season. No apparent advantage is shown in drought predictions during spring and summer seasons because of a long memory of the initial conditions in spring and a lower predictive skill for precipitation in summer. Overall, the NMME-based seasonal drought forecasting system has meaningful skill in predicting drought several months in advance, which can provide critical information for drought preparedness and response planning as well as the sustainable practice of water resource conservation over the basin.

A Model for Predicting Spring Emergence of Monochamus saltuarius (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) from Korean white pine, Pinus koraiensis.

PubMed

Jung, Chan Sik; Koh, Sang-Hyun; Nam, Youngwoo; Ahn, Jeong Joon; Lee, Cha Young; Choi, Won I L

2015-08-01

Monochamus saltuarius Gebler is a vector that transmits the pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, to Korean white pine, Pinus koraiensis, in Korea. To reduce the damage caused by this nematode in pine forests, timely control measures are needed to suppress the cerambycid beetle population. This study sought to construct a forecasting model to predict beetle emergence based on spring temperature. Logs of Korean white pine were infested with M. saltuarius in 2009, and the infested logs were overwintered. In February 2010, infested logs were then moved into incubators held at constant temperature conditions of 16, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30 or 34°C until all adults had emerged. The developmental rate of the beetles was estimated by linear and nonlinear equations and a forecasting model for emergence of the beetle was constructed by pooling data based on normalized developmental rate. The lower threshold temperature for development was 8.3°C. The forecasting model relatively well predicted the emergence pattern of M. saltuarius collected from four areas in northern Republic of Korea. The median emergence dates predicted by the model were 2.2-5.9 d earlier than the observed median dates. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario

PubMed Central

Hadano, Mayumi; Nasahara, Kenlo Nishida; Motohka, Takeshi; Noda, Hibiki Muraoka; Murakami, Kazutaka; Hosaka, Masahiro

2013-01-01

Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains. PMID:23789086