spring warming model: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for spring warming model

The impact of winter and spring temperatures on temperate tree budburst dates: results from an experimental climate manipulation.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Campioli, Matteo; Deckmyn, Gaby; Janssens, Ivan A

2012-01-01

Budburst phenology is a key driver of ecosystem structure and functioning, and it is sensitive to global change. Both cold winter temperatures (chilling) and spring warming (forcing) are important for budburst. Future climate warming is expected to have a contrasting effect on chilling and forcing, and subsequently to have a non-linear effect on budburst timing. To clarify the different effects of warming during chilling and forcing phases of budburst phenology in deciduous trees, (i) we conducted a temperature manipulation experiment, with separate winter and spring warming treatments on well irrigated and fertilized saplings of beech, birch and oak, and (ii) we analyzed the observations with five temperature-based budburst models (Thermal Time model, Parallel model, Sequential model, Alternating model, and Unified model). The results show that both winter warming and spring warming significantly advanced budburst date, with the combination of winter plus spring warming accelerating budburst most. As expected, all three species were more sensitive to spring warming than to winter warming. Although the different chilling requirement, the warming sensitivity was not significantly different among the studied species. Model evaluation showed that both one- and two- phase models (without and with chilling, respectively) are able to accurately predict budburst. For beech, the Sequential model reproduced budburst dates best. For oak and birch, both Sequential model and the Thermal Time model yielded good fit with the data but the latter was slightly better in case of high parameter uncertainty. However, for late-flushing species, the Sequential model is likely be the most appropriate to predict budburst data in a future warmer climate.
Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-01

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.
Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun; Li, Feng; You, Nanshan

2017-10-28

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.
Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406
Discharge, water temperature, and water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, Sarasota County, Florida: A retrospective analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metz, Patricia A.

2016-09-27

Warm Mineral Springs, located in southern Sarasota County, Florida, is a warm, highly mineralized, inland spring. Since 1946, a bathing spa has been in operation at the spring, attracting vacationers and health enthusiasts. During the winter months, the warm water attracts manatees to the adjoining spring run and provides vital habitat for these mammals. Well-preserved late Pleistocene to early Holocene-age human and animal bones, artifacts, and plant remains have been found in and around the spring, and indicate the surrounding sinkhole formed more than 12,000 years ago. The spring is a multiuse resource of hydrologic importance, ecological and archeological significance, and economic value to the community.The pool of Warm Mineral Springs has a circular shape that reflects its origin as a sinkhole. The pool measures about 240 feet in diameter at the surface and has a maximum depth of about 205 feet. The sinkhole developed in the sand, clay, and dolostone of the Arcadia Formation of the Miocene-age to Oligocene-age Hawthorn Group. Underlying the Hawthorn Group are Oligocene-age to Eocene-age limestones and dolostones, including the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. Mineralized groundwater, under artesian pressure in the underlying aquifers, fills the remnant sink, and the overflow discharges into Warm Mineral Springs Creek, to Salt Creek, and subsequently into the Myakka River. Aquifers described in the vicinity of Warm Mineral Springs include the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system within the Hawthorn Group, and the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. The Hawthorn Group acts as an upper confining unit of the Upper Floridan aquifer.Groundwater flow paths are inferred from the configuration of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer for September 2010. Groundwater flow models indicate the downward flow of water into the Upper Floridan aquifer in inland areas, and upward flow toward the surface in coastal areas, such as at Warm Mineral Springs. Warm Mineral Springs is located in a discharge area. Changes in water use in the region have affected the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Historical increase in groundwater withdrawals resulted in a 10- to 20-foot regional decline in the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by May 1975 relative to predevelopment levels and remained at approximately that level in May 2007 in the area of Warm Mineral Springs. Discharge measurements at Warm Mineral Springs (1942–2014) decreased from about 11–12 cubic feet per second in the 1940s to about 6–9 cubic feet per second in the 1970s and remained at about that level for the remainder of the period of record. Similarity of changes in regional water use and discharge at Warm Mineral Springs indicates that basin-scale changes to the groundwater system have affected discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Water temperature had no significant trend in temperature over the period of record, 1943–2015, and outliers were identified in the data that might indicate inconsistencies in measurement methods or locations.Within the regional groundwater basin, Warm Mineral Springs is influenced by deep Upper Floridan aquifer flow paths that discharge toward the coast. Associated with these flow paths, the groundwater temperatures increase with depth and toward the coast. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that a source of warm groundwater to Warm Mineral Springs is likely the permeable zone of the Avon Park Formation within the Upper Floridan aquifer at a depth of about 1,400 to 1,600 feet, or deeper sources. The permeable zone contains saline groundwater with water temperatures of at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit.The water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, when compared with other springs in Florida had the highest temperature and the greatest mineralized content. Warm Mineral Springs water is characterized by a slight-green color, with varying water clarity, low dissolved oxygen (indicative of deep groundwater), and a hydrogen sulfide odor. Water-quality samples detected ammonium-nitrogen and nitrates, but at low concentrations. The drinking water standard for nitrate adopted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is 10 milligrams per liter, measured as nitrogen. Water samples collected at spring vents by divers on April 29, 2015, had concentrations of 0.9 milligram per liter nitrate-nitrogen at vent A and 0.04–0.05 milligram per liter at vents B, C, and D. Typically, the water clarity is highest in the morning (about 30 feet Secchi depth) and often decreases throughout the day.Analysis of existing data provided some insight into the hydrologic processes affecting Warm Mineral Springs; however, data have been sparsely and discontinuously collected since the 1940s. Continuous monitoring of hydrologic characteristics such as discharge, water temperature, specific conductance, and water-quality indicators, such as nitrate and turbidity (water clarity), would be valuable for monitoring and development of models of spring discharge and water quality. In addition, water samples could be analyzed for isotopic tracers, such as strontium, and the results used to identify and quantify the sources of groundwater that discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Groundwater flow/transport models could be used to evaluate the sensitivity of the quality and quantity of water flowing from Warm Mineral Springs to changes in climate, aquifer levels, and water use.
77 FR 33237 - Saline Valley Warm Springs Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement, Death Valley National...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-05

... Valley Warm Springs Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement, Death Valley National Park, Inyo... an Environmental Impact Statement for the Saline Valley Warm Springs Management Plan, Death Valley... analysis process for the Saline Valley Warm Springs Management Plan for Death Valley [[Page 33238...
A multi-disciplinary investigation of Irish warm springs and their potential for geothermal energy provision.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blake, Sarah; Jones, Alan G.; Henry, Tiernan

2015-04-01

Irish warm springs are one of a set of several target types that are being evaluated for their geothermal energy potential during the course of the island-wide assessment of the geothermal energy potential of Ireland under the IRETHERM project (www.iretherm.ie). Forty-two warm springs and warm shallow groundwater occurrences have been recorded in Ireland; water temperatures in the springs (approx. 12-25 °C) are elevated with respect to average Irish groundwater temperatures (10-11 °C). This study focuses on warm springs in east-central Ireland found in the Carboniferous limestone of the Dublin Basin. A combination of geophysical methods (controlled source electromagnetics (CSEM) and audio-magnetotellurics (AMT)) and hydrochemical analyses (including time-lapse temperature and electrical conductivity measurements) have been utilised at several of the springs to determine the source of the heated waters at depth and the nature of the geological structures that deliver the warm waters to the surface. Using the example of St. Gorman's Well, Co. Meath, we show how the combination of these different methods of investigation and the interpretation of these various data sets enables us to better understand the physical and chemical variability of the spring through time. This will provide the basis for an assessment of the source of these thermal waters as a potential geothermal energy reservoir and will allow for more precise characterisation of the groundwater resource. We present subsurface models derived from new geophysical data collected at St. Gorman's Well in 2013. This high-resolution AMT survey consisted of a grid of 40 soundings recorded at approximately 200 m intervals centred on the spring. The aim of the survey was to image directly any (electrically conductive) fluid conduit systems that may be associated with the springs and to provide an understanding of the observed association of the Irish warm springs with major structural lineaments, such as the NE-SW Caledonian structural trend which dominates Irish geology. Seasonal hydrochemical sampling of six warm spring locations commenced in July 2013. Data loggers installed at each location measured temperature and electrical conductivity (15-minute sampling intervals) throughout the sampling period (July 2013 - early 2015). The hydrochemical results and the data from the logger at St. Gorman's Well are examined here in conjunction with regional rainfall and available hydrogeological information in order to establish the nature of the relationship between the hydrological cycle and fluctuations in the hydrochemistry of the spring.
Root and Shoot Phenology May Respond Differently to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radville, L.; Eissenstat, D. M.; Post, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change is increasing temperatures and extending the growing season for many organisms. Shifts in phenology have been widely reported in response to global warming and have strong effects on ecosystem processes and greenhouse gas emissions. It is well understood that warming generally advances aboveground plant phenology, but the influence of temperature on root phenology is unclear. Most terrestrial biosphere models assume that root and shoot growth occur at the same time and are influenced by warming in the same way, but recent studies suggest that this may not be the case. Testing this assumption is particularly important in the Arctic where over 70% of plant biomass can be belowground and warming is happening faster than in other ecosystems. In 2013 and 2014 we examined the timing of root growth in the Arctic in plots that had been warmed or unwarmed for 10 years. We found that peak root growth occurred about one month before leaf growth, suggesting that spring root phenology is not controlled by carbon produced during spring photosynthesis. If root phenology is not controlled by photosynthate early in the season, earlier spring leaf growth may not cause earlier spring root growth. In support of this, we found that warming advanced spring leaf cover but did not significantly affect root phenology. Root growth was not significantly correlated with soil temperature and did not appear to be limited by near-freezing temperatures above the permafrost. These results suggest that although shoots are influenced by temperature, roots in this system may be more influenced by photosynthesis and carbon storage. Aboveground phenology, one of the most widely measured aspects of climate change, may not represent whole-plant phenology and may be a poor indicator of the timing of whole-plant carbon fluxes. Additionally, climate model assumptions that roots and shoots grow at the same time may need to be revised.
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought.

PubMed

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F; Fisher, Joshua B; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Desai, Ankur R; Richardson, Andrew D; Scott, Russell L; Law, Beverly E; Litvak, Marcy E; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Peters, Wouter; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T

2016-05-24

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

PubMed Central

Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Scott, Russell L.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Peters, Wouter

2016-01-01

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. PMID:27114518
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE PAGES

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; ...

2016-04-25

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less
Late Quaternary Surface Displacement Across a Normal-Fault Structural Boundary on the Northern Lost River Fault Zone (Idaho, USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DuRoss, C. B.; Bunds, M. P.; Reitman, N. G.; Gold, R. D.; Personius, S. F.; Briggs, R. W.; Toke, N. A.; Johnson, K. L.; Lajoie, L. J.

2017-12-01

In 1983, about 36 km of the 130-km-long multisegment Lost River fault zone (LRFZ) (Idaho, USA) ruptured in the M 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake. Normal-faulting surface rupture propagated along the entire 24-km-long Thousand Springs section, then branched to the northwest along a 4-km-long fault (western section) that continues into the Willow Creek Hills, a prominent bedrock ridge that forms a structural boundary between the Thousand Springs section and Warms Springs section to the north. North of the Willow Creek Hills, the 1983 rupture continued onto the southern 8 km of the 16-km-long Warm Springs section. To improve our understanding of the Borah Peak earthquake and the role of structural boundaries in normal-fault rupture propagation, we acquired low-altitude aerial imagery of the southern 8 km of the Warm Springs section and northern 6 km of the Thousand Springs section, including the western section branch fault. Using 5-10-cm-pixel digital surface models generated from this dataset, we measured vertical surface offsets across both 1983 and prehistoric scarps. On the Warm Springs section, 1983 displacement is minor (mean of 0.3 m) compared to at least two prehistoric events having mean displacements of 1.1 m and 1.7 m inferred from displacement difference curves. Prehistoric scarps on the western section indicate rupture of this branch fault prior to 1983. Correcting for 1983 displacement, mean prehistoric displacement on the western section is 0.9 m compared to a mean of 0.7 m in 1983. Using these data and previous paleoseismic displacements, we evaluate the spatial distribution of cumulative and per-earthquake displacement. Our results suggest that at least one prehistoric rupture of the Thousand Springs section occurred with a similar length and displacement to that in 1983. Further, the 1983 spillover rupture from the Thousand Springs section to the southernmost Warm Springs section appears unique from larger displacement, prehistoric ruptures that may have spanned the majority of the Warm Springs section and possibly continued south into the Willow Creek Hills based on paleoseismic and surface-offset data. We conclude that the Willow Creek Hills structural boundary has likely moderated, but not completely impeded both prehistoric and 1983 ruptures of the northern LRFZ.
OVERVIEW OF GOLD HILL MILL, ROAD, AND WARM SPRINGS CAMP ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

OVERVIEW OF GOLD HILL MILL, ROAD, AND WARM SPRINGS CAMP BUILDINGS, LOOKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THE FUNCTION OF THE FLAT AREA AT CENTER RIGHT IS UNKNOWN. - Gold Hill Mill, Warm Spring Canyon Road, Death Valley Junction, Inyo County, CA
Controlled warming effects on wheat growth and yield: field measurements and modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate warming may raise wheat yields in cooler climates and lower them in warmer. To understand these contrasting effects, infrared heating lamps were used to warm irrigated spring wheat by 1.5 'C (day) and 3.0 'C (night) above unheated controls during different times of the year at Maricopa, AZ. ...
Synergy of a warm spring and dry summer

Treesearch

Yude Pan; David Schimel

2016-01-01

An analysis suggests that high carbon uptake by US land ecosystems during the warm spring of 2012 offset the carbon loss that resulted from severe drought over the summer â and hints that the warm spring could have worsened the drought.
Water Quality Outlet Works Prototype Tests, Warm Springs Dam Dry Creek, Russian River Basin Sonoma County, California

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-01

34.4* TECHNICAL REPORT HL-89-4 WATER QUALITY OUTLET WORKS PROTOTYPE TESTS, WARM SPRINGS DAM DRY CREEK, RUSSIAN RIVER BASIN AD-A207 058 SONOMA COUNTY , CALIFORNIA...Clawflcation) [7 Water Quality Outlet Works Prototype Tests, Warm Springs Dam, Dry Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , California 12. PERSONAL...Cointogobvil Be,,pesso Figur 1. iciniyama Pealm WATER QUALITY OUTLET WORKS PROTOTYPE TESTS WARM SPRINGS DAM, DRY CREEK, RUSSIAN RIVER BASIN SONOMA COUNTY , CALIFORNIA
Performance and application of a fluidized bed limestone reactor designed for control of alkalinity, hardness and pH at the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Springs serving the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center, Warm Springs, Georgia, have pH, alkalinity, and hardness levels that lie under the range required for successful fish propagation while free CO2 is well above allowable targets. We evaluate a pretreatment process that exploits limestone's (...
Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

2017-09-01

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.
40 CFR 49.11071 - Identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11071... Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation. This plan consists of a combination of Tribal rules and measures and Federal regulations and measures which apply within the Warm Springs Reservation. ...

40 CFR 49.11071 - Identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11071... Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation. This plan consists of a combination of Tribal rules and measures and Federal regulations and measures which apply within the Warm Springs Reservation. ...
40 CFR 49.11071 - Identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11071 Identification of plan... Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation. This plan consists of a combination of Tribal rules and measures and Federal regulations and measures which apply within the Warm Springs Reservation. ...
40 CFR 49.11071 - Identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11071... Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation. This plan consists of a combination of Tribal rules and measures and Federal regulations and measures which apply within the Warm Springs Reservation. ...
40 CFR 49.11071 - Identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11071... Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation. This plan consists of a combination of Tribal rules and measures and Federal regulations and measures which apply within the Warm Springs Reservation. ...
Responses of spring phenology to climate warming reduced over the past decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Yongshuo. H.; Zhao, hongfang; piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Penuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan. A.

2016-04-01

The phenology of spring leaf unfolding is one of the key indicators of the climate change on ecosystems, and influences regional and hemispheric-scale carbon balances and plant-animal interactions. Changes in the phenology of spring leaf unfolding can also exert biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. Recent studies have reported significant advances in spring phenology as a result of warming in most northern hemisphere regions. Climate warming is projected to further increase, but the future evolution of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding remains uncertain - in view of the imperfect understanding of how the underlying mechanisms respond to environmental stimuli. In addition, the relative contributions of each environmental stimulus, which together define the apparent temperature sensitivity of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding (advances in days per degree Celsius warming, ST), may also change over time. An improved characterization of the variation in phenological responses to spring temperature is thus valuable, provided that it addresses temporal and spatial scales relevant for regional projections. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, we show here that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance per ° C) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days ° C-1 during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days ° C-1 during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24%-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also play a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.
Finished genome assembly of warm spring isolate Francisella novicida DPG 3A-IS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Shannon L.; Minogue, Timothy D.; Daligault, Hajnalka E.

2015-09-17

We sequenced the complete genome of Francisella novicida DPG 3A-IS to closed and finished status. This is a warm spring isolate recovered from Hobo Warm Spring (Utah, USA). The last assembly is available in NCBI under accession number CP012037.
Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.
76 FR 35013 - Notice of Inventory Completion; U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, Fort...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-15

... the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon; Cowlitz Indian Tribe, Washington; Muckleshoot Indian Tribe of... the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon; Cowlitz Indian Tribe, Washington; Muckleshoot Indian Tribe of... Indian Reservation, Oregon; Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon; Cowlitz Indian...
Changes in net ecosystem productivity of boreal black spruce stands in response to changes in temperature at diurnal and seasonal time scales.

PubMed

Grant, R F; Margolis, H A; Barr, A G; Black, T A; Dunn, A L; Bernier, P Y; Bergeron, O

2009-01-01

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of boreal coniferous forests is believed to rise with climate warming, thereby offsetting some of the rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration (C(a)) by which warming is caused. However, the response of conifer NEP to warming may vary seasonally, with rises in spring and declines in summer. To gain more insight into this response, we compared changes in CO(2) exchange measured by eddy covariance and simulated by the ecosystem process model ecosys under rising mean annual air temperatures (T(a)) during 2004-2006 at black spruce stands in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec. Hourly net CO(2) uptake was found to rise with warming at T(a) < 15 degrees C and to decline with warming at T(a) > 20 degrees C. As mean annual T(a) rose from 2004 to 2006, increases in net CO(2) uptake with warming at lower T(a) were greater than declines with warming at higher T(a) so that annual gross primary productivity and hence NEP increased. Increases in net CO(2) uptake measured at lower T(a) were explained in the model by earlier recovery of photosynthetic capacity in spring, and by increases in carboxylation activity, using parameters for the Arrhenius temperature functions of key carboxylation processes derived from independent experiments. Declines in net CO(2) uptake measured at higher T(a) were explained in the model by sharp declines in mid-afternoon canopy stomatal conductance (g(c)) under higher vapor pressure deficits (D). These declines were modeled from a hydraulic constraint to water uptake imposed by low axial conductivity of conifer roots and boles that forced declines in canopy water potential (psi(c)), and hence in g(c) under higher D when equilibrating water uptake with transpiration. In a model sensitivity study, the contrasting responses of net CO(2) uptake to specified rises in T(a) caused annual NEP of black spruce in the model to rise with increases in T(a) of up to 6 degrees C, but to decline with further increases at mid-continental sites with lower precipitation. However, these contrasting responses to warming also indicate that rises in NEP with climate warming would depend on the seasonality (spring versus summer) as well as the magnitude of rises in T(a).
Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

PubMed

Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

2016-09-01

Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Geothermometric evaluation of geothermal resources in southeastern Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, G.; Mattson, E. D.; McLing, T. L.; Palmer, C. D.; Smith, R. W.; Wood, T. R.; Podgorney, R. K.

2016-01-01

Southeastern Idaho exhibits numerous warm springs, warm water from shallow wells, and hot water from oil and gas test wells that indicate a potential for geothermal development in the area. We have estimated reservoir temperatures from chemical composition of thermal waters in southeastern Idaho using an inverse geochemical modeling technique (Reservoir Temperature Estimator, RTEst) that calculates the temperature at which multiple minerals are simultaneously at equilibrium while explicitly accounting for the possible loss of volatile constituents (e.g., CO2), boiling and/or water mixing. The temperature estimates in the region varied from moderately warm (59 °C) to over 175 °C. Specifically, hot springs near Preston, Idaho, resulted in the highest reservoir temperature estimates in the region.
75 FR 52369 - Notice of Inventory Completion: Oregon Museum of Science and Industry, Portland, OR

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-25

... the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon. In the 1930s or early 1940s, human... territory of the present- day Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon, which is composed of Wasco, Warm Springs, and Paiute bands and tribes. The Columbia River-based Wasco were the...
Recent slowdown of atmospheric CO2 amplification due to vegetation-climate feedback over northern lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Xia, J.; Ahlström, A.; Rinke, A.; Koven, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ji, D.; Zhang, G.; Krinner, G.; Chen, G.; Dong, J.; Liang, J.; Moore, J.; Jiang, L.; Yan, L.; Ciais, P.; Peng, S.; Wang, Y.; Xiao, X.; Shi, Z.; McGuire, A. D.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern high latitudes since 1960s1-3. It remains unclear that whether this mechanism is still robust since 1990s, because a paused vegetation growth increase4,5 and weakened temperature control on CO2 uptake6,7 have been detected during this period. Here, based on in-situ atmospheric CO2 concentration records above northern 50o N, we found a slowdown of the atmospheric CO2 amplification from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s. This phenomenon is associated with the pause of vegetation greening trend and slowdown of spring warming. We further showed that both the vegetation greenness and its growing season length are positively correlated to spring but not autumn temperature from 1982 to 2010 over the northern lands. However, the state-of-art terrestrial biosphere models produce positive responses of gross primary productivity to both spring and autumn warming. These findings emphasize the importance of vegetation-climate feedback in shaping the atmospheric CO2 seasonality, and call for an improved carbon-cycle response to non-uniform seasonal warming at high latitudes in current models.
Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piao, S.; Peng, S.; Liu, Z.; Ciais, P.; Wang, T.; Huang, M.; Ahlstrom, A.; Burkhart, J. F.; Chevallier, F.; Jeong, S. J.; Janssens, I. A.; Lin, X.; Mao, J.; Myneni, R.; Shi, X.; van der Velde, I. R.; Stohl, A.; Mohammat, A.; Yao, Y.; Peñuelas, J.; Zhu, Z.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

Ongoing spring warming allows the growing season to begin earlier, enhancing carbon uptake in northern ecosystems. Here we use 34 years of atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska (BRW, 71o N) to show that the interannual relationship between spring temperature and carbon uptake has recently shifted. We use two indicators: the spring zero-crossing date of atmospheric CO2 (SZC) and the magnitude of CO2 draw down between May and June (SCC). The previously reported strong correlation between SZC, SCC and spring land temperature (ST) was found in the first 17 years of measurements, but disappeared in the last 17 years. As a result, the sensitivity of both SZC and SCC to warming decreased. Simulations with an atmospheric transport model coupled to a terrestrial ecosystem model suggest that the weakened interannual correlation of SZC and SCC with ST in the last 17 years is attributable to the declining temperature response of spring net primary productivity (NPP) rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration or in atmospheric transport patterns. Reduced chilling during dormancy and emerging light limitation are possible mechanisms that may have contributed to the loss of NPP response to ST. Our results thus challenge the `warmer spring-bigger sink' mechanism.
Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Scholten, Ilse; Bauer, Silke; Cobben, Marleen M P; Ens, Bruno J; Nolet, Bart A

2017-10-01

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Geothermal Reservoir Temperatures in Southeastern Idaho using Multicomponent Geothermometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neupane, Ghanashyam; Mattson, Earl D.; McLing, Travis L.

Southeastern Idaho exhibits numerous warm springs, warm water from shallow wells, and hot water within oil and gas test wells that indicate a potential for geothermal development in the area. Although the area exhibits several thermal expressions, the measured geothermal gradients vary substantially (19 – 61 ºC/km) within this area, potentially suggesting a redistribution of heat in the overlying ground water from deeper geothermal reservoirs. We have estimated reservoir temperatures from measured water compositions using an inverse modeling technique (Reservoir Temperature Estimator, RTEst) that calculates the temperature at which multiple minerals are simultaneously at equilibrium while explicitly accounting for themore » possible loss of volatile constituents (e.g., CO2), boiling and/or water mixing. Compositions of a selected group of thermal waters representing southeastern Idaho hot/warm springs and wells were used for the development of temperature estimates. The temperature estimates in the the region varied from moderately warm (59 ºC) to over 175 ºC. Specifically, hot springs near Preston, Idaho resulted in the highest temperature estimates in the region.« less
Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Esben M.; Knutsen, Halvor; Chan, Kung-Sik; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. PMID:21245301
Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir

Treesearch

Connie Harrington; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

2010-01-01

Most temperate woody plants have a winter chilling requirement to prevent budburst during midwinter periods of warm weather. The date of spring budburst is dependent on both chilling and forcing; modeling this date is an important part of predicting potential effects of global warming on trees. There is no clear evidence from the literature that the curves of chilling...
Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

2016-11-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley

2016-01-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.

Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhao, Hongfang; Piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Peñuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan A

2015-10-01

Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C(-1) during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C(-1) during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.
Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piao, Shilong; Liu, Zhuo; Wang, Tao

2017-04-24

Ongoing spring warming allows the growing season to begin earlier, enhancing carbon uptake in northern ecosystems. We use 34 years of atmospheric CO 2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska (BRW, 71° N) to show that the interannual relationship between spring temperature and carbon uptake has recently shifted. Here, we use two indicators: the spring zero-crossing date of atmospheric CO 2 (SZC) and the magnitude of CO 2 drawdown between May and June (SCC). The previously reported strong correlation between SZC, SCC and spring land temperature (ST) was found in the first 17 years of measurements, but disappeared in the lastmore » 17 years. As a result, the sensitivity of both SZC and SCC to warming decreased. Simulations with an atmospheric transport model coupled to a terrestrial ecosystem model suggest that the weakened interannual correlation of SZC and SCC with ST in the last 17 years is attributable to the declining temperature response of spring net primary productivity (NPP) rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration or in atmospheric transport patterns. Reduced chilling during dormancy and emerging light limitation are possible mechanisms that may have contributed to the loss of NPP response to ST. These results thus challenge the ‘warmer spring–bigger sink’ mechanism.« less
Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.
Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.
Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

PubMed

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.
Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zelikova, Tamara J.; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Wertin, Timothy M.; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-01-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.
Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions.

PubMed

Zelikova, Tamara J; Hufbauer, Ruth A; Reed, Sasha C; Wertin, Timothy; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-05-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.
Identification of geothermal system using 2D audio magnetotelluric method in Telomoyo volcanic area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romadlon, Arriqo'Fauqi; Niasari, Sintia Windhi

2017-07-01

Geothermal area of Candi Umbul Telomoyo is one of geothermal fields in Indonesia. This geothermal field is located in the Grabag district, Magelang, Central Java. This geothermal field was formed in a volcanic quarter. The main aim in this study is to identify geothermal system at Telomoyo volcanic area through synthetic model analysis. There are surface manifestations such as warm springs and altered rocks. Results of geochemistry study showed reservoir's temperature was 230°C. The Warm spring in Candi Umbul was the outflow zone of the Telomoyo geothermal system. The Telomoyo geothermal system was indicated chloride-bicarbonate type of warm spring. In addition, the results of geological mapping indicate that the dominant fault structure has southwest-northeast orientation. The fault was caused by the volcanic activity of mount Telomoyo. In this research conducted data analysis from synthetics model. It aims to estimate the response of magnetotelluric methods in various models of geothermal systems. In this study, we assumed three models of geothermal system in Candi Umbul-Telomoyo area. From the data analysis it was known that the model 1 and model 2 can be distinguished if the measurements were conducted in a frequency range of 0.01 Hz to 1000 Hz. In response of tipper (Hz) had a small value on all models at all measurement points, so the tipper cannot distinguish between model 1, model 2 and model 3. From this analysis was known that TM mode is more sensitive than TE mode at the resistivity and phase responses.
Three times greater weight of daytime than of night-time temperature on leaf unfolding phenology in temperate trees.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Liu, Yongjie; De Boeck, Hans J; Menzel, Annette; Nijs, Ivan; Peaucelle, Marc; Peñuelas, Josep; Piao, Shilong; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-11-01

The phenology of spring leaf unfolding plays a key role in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. The classical concept of heat requirement (growing degree days) for leaf unfolding was developed hundreds of years ago, but this model does not include the recently reported greater importance of daytime than night-time temperature. A manipulative experiment on daytime vs night-time warming with saplings of three species of temperate deciduous trees was conducted and a Bayesian method was applied to explore the different effects of daytime and night-time temperatures on spring phenology. We found that both daytime and night-time warming significantly advanced leaf unfolding, but the sensitivities to increased daytime and night-time temperatures differed significantly. Trees were most sensitive to daytime warming (7.4 ± 0.9, 4.8 ± 0.3 and 4.8 ± 0.2 d advancement per degree Celsius warming (d °C -1 ) for birch, oak and beech, respectively) and least sensitive to night-time warming (5.5 ± 0.9, 3.3 ± 0.3 and 2.1 ± 0.9 d °C -1 ). Interestingly, a Bayesian analysis found that the impact of daytime temperature on leaf unfolding was approximately three times higher than that of night-time temperatures. Night-time global temperature is increasing faster than daytime temperature, so model projections of future spring phenology should incorporate the effects of these different temperatures. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.
FINAL REPORT WIND POWER WARM SPRINGS RESERVATION TRIBAL LANDS DOE GRANT NUMBER DE-FG36-07GO17077 SUBMITTED BY WARM SPRINGS POWER & WATER ENTERPRISES A CORPORATE ENTITY OF THE CONFEDERATED TRIBES OF WARM SPRINGS WARM SPRINGS, OREGON

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jim Manion; Michael Lofting; Wil Sando

2009-03-30

Wind Generation Feasibility Warm Springs Power and Water Enterprises (WSPWE) is a corporate entity owned by the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation, located in central Oregon. The organization is responsible for managing electrical power generation facilities on tribal lands and, as part of its charter, has the responsibility to evaluate and develop renewable energy resources for the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs. WSPWE recently completed a multi-year-year wind resource assessment of tribal lands, beginning with the installation of wind monitoring towers on the Mutton Mountains site in 2003, and collection of on-site wind data is ongoing. The studymore » identified the Mutton Mountain site on the northeastern edge of the reservation as a site with sufficient wind resources to support a commercial power project estimated to generate over 226,000 MWh per year. Initial estimates indicate that the first phase of the project would be approximately 79.5 MW of installed capacity. This Phase 2 study expands and builds on the previously conducted Phase 1 Wind Resource Assessment, dated June 30, 2007. In order to fully assess the economic benefits that may accrue to the Tribes through wind energy development at Mutton Mountain, a planning-level opinion of probable cost was performed to define the costs associated with key design and construction aspects of the proposed project. This report defines the Mutton Mountain project costs and economics in sufficient detail to allow the Tribes to either build the project themselves or contract with a developer under the most favorable terms possible for the Tribes.« less
Role of 20th tropical precipitation on ENSO amplitude changes due to greenhouse warming in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2016-04-01

This study examines the relationship between the intermodel diversities of the present-climate climatology and those of ENSO amplitude change under global warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The models with increased ENSO amplitude under greenhouse warming (i.e., 'ENSO-amplified models') tend to simulate a 20th century stronger climatological ITCZ and SPCZ over the central-eastern Pacific that are located further away from the equator during boreal spring. Moisture budget analysis indicates that those climatological differences lead to stronger positive climatological precipitation change over the off-equatorial central-eastern Pacific under greenhouse warming. The stronger positive climatological precipitation change enhances the air-sea coupling strength over the central-eastern Pacific, which leads to increase the ENSO amplitude.
Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kam, Jonghun; Knutson, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C. D.

2018-01-01

Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.
40 CFR 49.11072 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11072 Approval status. There are currently no EPA-approved Tribal rules or measures in the implementation plan for the Warm Springs Reservation. ...
CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine

2015-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.
Combined impact of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date on spring wheat phenology in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Tao, Fulu; Shen, Yanjun; Qi, Yongqing

2016-08-01

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)-1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.
40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...
40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...
40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...
40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...
Spring predictability explains different leaf-out strategies in the woody floras of North America, Europe and East Asia.

PubMed

Zohner, Constantin M; Benito, Blas M; Fridley, Jason D; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S

2017-04-01

Intuitively, interannual spring temperature variability (STV) should influence the leaf-out strategies of temperate zone woody species, with high winter chilling requirements in species from regions where spring warming varies greatly among years. We tested this hypothesis using experiments in 215 species and leaf-out monitoring in 1585 species from East Asia (EA), Europe (EU) and North America (NA). The results reveal that species from regions with high STV indeed have higher winter chilling requirements, and, when grown under the same conditions, leaf out later than related species from regions with lower STV. Since 1900, STV has been consistently higher in NA than in EU and EA, and under experimentally short winter conditions NA species required 84% more spring warming for bud break, EU ones 49% and EA ones only 1%. These previously unknown continental-scale differences in phenological strategies underscore the need for considering regional climate histories in global change models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.

2013-01-01

Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.
25 CFR 247.3 - Who is eligible to use the sites?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakima Indian Nation (Yakima), the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon (Warm Springs), the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (Umatilla...
25 CFR 247.3 - Who is eligible to use the sites?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakima Indian Nation (Yakima), the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon (Warm Springs), the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (Umatilla...
25 CFR 247.3 - Who is eligible to use the sites?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakima Indian Nation (Yakima), the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon (Warm Springs), the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (Umatilla...
25 CFR 247.3 - Who is eligible to use the sites?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakima Indian Nation (Yakima), the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon (Warm Springs), the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (Umatilla...
25 CFR 247.3 - Who is eligible to use the sites?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakima Indian Nation (Yakima), the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon (Warm Springs), the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (Umatilla...
40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11075 Classification of regions for episode plans. The air quality control region which encompasses the Warm Springs...
Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

2017-04-01

In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.
Influence of spring phenology on seasonal and annual carbon balance in two contrasting New England forests.

PubMed

Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Dail, D Bryan; Lee, John T; Munger, J William; O'keefe, John

2009-03-01

Spring phenology is thought to exert a major influence on the carbon (C) balance of temperate and boreal ecosystems. We investigated this hypothesis using four spring onset phenological indicators in conjunction with surface-atmosphere CO(2) exchange data from the conifer-dominated Howland Forest and deciduous-dominated Harvard Forest AmeriFlux sites. All phenological measures, including CO(2) source-sink transition dates, could be well predicted on the basis of a simple two-parameter spring warming model, indicating good potential for improving the representation of phenological transitions and their dynamic responsiveness to climate variability in land surface models. The date at which canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity reached a threshold value of 12 micromol m(-2) s(-1) was better correlated with spring and annual flux integrals than were either deciduous or coniferous bud burst dates. For all phenological indicators, earlier spring onset consistently, but not always significantly, resulted in higher gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) for both seasonal (spring months, April-June) and annual flux integrals. The increase in RE was less than that in GPP; depending on the phenological indicator used, a one-day advance in spring onset increased springtime net ecosystem productivity (NEP) by 2-4 g C m(-2) day(-1). In general, we could not detect significant differences between the two forest types in response to earlier spring, although the response to earlier spring was generally more pronounced for Harvard Forest than for Howland Forest, suggesting that future climate warming may favor deciduous species over coniferous species, at least in this region. The effect of earlier spring tended to be about twice as large when annual rather than springtime flux integrals were considered. This result is suggestive of both immediate and lagged effects of earlier spring onset on ecosystem C cycling, perhaps as a result of accelerated N cycling rates and cascading effects on N uptake, foliar N concentrations and photosynthetic capacity.
Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

PubMed

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

2015-12-01

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ENSO amplitude changes due to greenhouse warming in CMIP5: Role of mean tropical precipitation in the 20th centur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-04-01

The relationship between the present-climate climatology and those of ENSO amplitude change under global warming in the CMIP5 models is examined. The models with increased ENSO amplitude under greenhouse warming tend to simulate a 20th century stronger climatological ITCZ and SPCZ over the central-eastern Pacific that are located further away from the equator during boreal spring. The budget analysis using moisture equation indicates that those climatological differences lead to stronger positive climatological precipitation change over the off-equatorial central-eastern Pacific under greenhouse warming. The stronger positive climatological precipitation change enhances the air-sea coupling strength over the central-eastern Pacific, which results in the increase of the ENSO amplitude.
Linking atmospheric blocking to European temperature extremes in spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Lukas; Hegerl, Gabriele; Steiner, Andrea

2017-04-01

The weather in Europe is influenced by a range of dynamical features such as the Atlantic storm tracks, the jet stream, and atmospheric blocking. Blocking describes an atmospheric situation in which a stationary and persistent high pressure system interrupts the climatological flow for several days to weeks. It can trigger cold and warm spells which is of special relevance during the spring season because vegetation is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures in the early greening phase. We investigate European cold and warm spells in the 36 springs from 1979 to 2014 in temperature data from the European daily high-resolution gridded dataset (E-OBS) and connect them to blocking derived from geopotential height fields from ERA-Interim. A highly significant link between blocking and both, cold and warm spells is found that changes during spring. Resolving monthly frequencies, we find a shift in the preferred locations of blocking throughout spring. The maximum blocking frequency during cold spells shifts from Scandinavia to the British Isles in March and April. During warm spells it continuously shifts further northward during the spring season. The location of the block is found to be essential for the sign of the relationship. Blocking over the north-eastern Atlantic and over northern Europe is strongly linked to cold conditions, while blocking over central Europe is associated with warm conditions. Consistently the spatial distribution of temperature extremes across Europe is highly sensitive to the occurrence of blocking. More than 80 % of cold spells in south-eastern Europe occur during blocking, compared to less than 30 % in northern Europe. Warm spells show the opposite pattern and more than 70 % co-occur with blocking in northern Europe, compared to less than 30 % in parts of southern Europe. We find considerable interannual variability over the analysis period from 1979 to 2014 but also a decrease in cold spells and an increase in warm spells, especially in the last 15 years, indicating the influence of global warming. The change to a warmer environment holds the potential for even higher vulnerability to cold extremes, which can be triggered by blocking in late spring. Brunner, L., G. Hegerl, and A. Steiner, 2017: Connecting Atmospheric Blocking to European Temperature Extremes in Spring. J. Climate, 30, 585-594, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0518.1.
Geothermal Target Areas in Colorado as Identified by Remote Sensing Techniques

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains the areas identified as targets of potential geothermal activity. The Criteria used to identify the target areas include: hot/warm surface exposures modeled from ASTER/Landsat satellite imagery and geological characteristics, alteration mineral commonly associated with hot springs (clays, Si, and FeOx) modeled from ASTER and Landsat data, Colorado Geological Survey (CGS) known thermal hot springs/wells and heat-flow data points, Colorado deep-seated fault zones, weakened basement identified from isostatic gravity data, and Colorado sedimentary and topographic characteristics.
The Streambank Erosion Control Evaluation and Demonstration Act of 1974, Section 32, Public Law 93-251. Appendix A. Literature Survey.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , California; Hydraulic Model Investigation," Technical Report H-73-3, U. S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment...Springs Dam, Dry Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , Cali- fornia; Hydraulic Model Investigation," Technical Report H-73-3, U. S. Army Engineer...Structures Ables, J. H., Jr., and Pickering, G. A. 1973 (Feb). "Outlet Works, 0 Warm Springs Dam, Dry Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , Cali
A test for the relative strength of maternal and stock effects in spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from two different hatcheries (Study site: Warm Springs Hatchery; Stocks: Warm Springs Hatchery and Carson Hatchery; Year class: 1993): Chapter 10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetzel, Lisa A.; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Stenberg, Karl D.; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Hayes, Michael C.

2012-01-01

An experiment was undertaken to determine the relative strength of maternal and stock effects in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) reared in a common environment, as a companion study to our investigation of hatchery and wild Chinook salmon. Pure-strain and reciprocal crosses were made between two hatchery stocks (Carson and Warm Springs National Fish Hatcheries). The offspring were reared together in one of the hatcheries to the smolt stage, and then were transferred to a seawater rearing facility (USGS-Marrowstone Field Station). Differences in survival, growth and disease prevalence were assessed. Fish with Carson parentage grew to greater size at the hatchery and in seawater than the pure-strain Warm Springs fish, but showed higher mortality at introduction to seawater. The analyses of maternal and stock effects were inconclusive, but the theoretical responses to different combinations of maternal and stock effects may be useful in interpreting stock comparison studies.
The thermal regime and species composition of fish and invertebrates in Kelly Warm Spring, Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harper, David; Farag, Aida

2017-01-01

We evaluated the thermal regime and relative abundance of native and nonnative fish and invertebrates within Kelly Warm Spring and Savage Ditch, Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming. Water temperatures within the system remained relatively warm year-round with mean temperatures >20 °C near the spring source and >5 °C approximately 2 km downstream of the source. A total of 7 nonnative species were collected: Convict/Zebra Cichlid (Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum), Green Swordtail (Xiphophorus hellerii), Tadpole Madtom (Noturus gyrinus), Guppy (Poecilia reticulata), Goldfish (Carassius auratus), red-rimmed melania snail (Melanoides tuberculata), and American bullfrog tadpoles (Lithobates catesbeianus). Nonnative fish (Zebra Cichlids and Green Swordtails), red-rimmed melania snails, and bullfrog tadpoles dominated the upper 2 km of the system. Abundance estimates of the Zebra Cichlid exceeded 12,000 fish/km immediately downstream of the spring source. Relative abundance of native species increased movingdownstream as water temperatures attenuated with distance from the thermally warmed spring source; however, nonnative species were captured 4 km downstream from the spring. Fish diseases were prevalent in both native and nonnative fish from the Kelly Warm Spring pond. Clinostomum marginatum, a trematode parasite, was found in native species samples, and the tapeworm Diphyllobothrium dendriticum was present in samples from nonnative species. Diphyllobothrium dendriticum is rare in Wyoming. Salmonella spp. were also found in some samples of nonnative species. These bacteria are associated with aquarium fish and aquaculture and are generally not found in the wild.
75 FR 57976 - Designation of Service Area for Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs of Oregon

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-23

... office hours at Hood River County. Dated: August 26, 2010. Larry Echo Hawk, Assistant Secretary--Indian... will expand the service area for the Warm Springs Tribe to include Hood River County (Oregon). The...
Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf-out phenology.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Piao, Shilong; Delpierre, Nicolas; Hao, Fanghua; Hänninen, Heikki; Liu, Yongjie; Sun, Wenchao; Janssens, Ivan A; Campioli, Matteo

2018-05-01

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6-8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf-out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf-out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keenan, Trevor; Gray, Josh; Friedl, Mark

2014-01-01

The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system1. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (though the exact sensitivity is disputed2) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn3,4 and increased vegetation activity5,6. Such greening could be expected to enhance ecosystem carbon uptake7,8, though reports also suggest decreased uptake for boreal forests4,9. Here we assess changes in phenology of temperate forests over the eastern US during the past two decades, and quantify the resulting changes in forest carbon storage. We combine long-term groundmore » observations of phenology, satellite indices, and ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide flux measurements, along with 18 terrestrial biosphere models. We observe a strong trend of earlier spring and later autumn. In contrast to previous suggestions4,9 we show that carbon uptake through photosynthesis increased considerably more than carbon release through respiration for both an earlier spring and later autumn. The terrestrial biosphere models tested misrepresent the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and thus the effect on carbon uptake. Our analysis of the temperature-phenology-carbon coupling suggests a current and possible future enhancement of forest carbon uptake due to changes in phenology. This constitutes a negative feedback to climate change, and is serving to slow the rate of warming.« less
Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

2017-12-01

Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.
Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Sreenivas, P.

2014-01-01

Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection.
AgRISTARS: Supporting research. Spring small grains planting date distribution model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T.; Artley, J. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A model was developed using 996 planting dates at 51 LANDSAT segments for spring wheat and spring barley in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in 1979. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were obtained from the cooperative weather stations nearest to each segment. The model uses a growing degree day summation modified for daily temperature range to estimate the beginning of planting and uses a soil surface wetness variable to estimate how a fixed number of planting days are distributed after planting begins. For 1979, the model predicts first, median, and last planting dates with root mean square errors of 7.91, 6.61, and 7.09 days, respectively. The model also provides three or four dates to represent periods of planting activity within the planting season. Although the full model was not tested on an independent data set, it may be suitable in areas other than the U.S. Great Plains where spring small grains are planted as soon as soil and air temperatures become warm enough in the spring for plant growth.
Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

PubMed

Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

2015-09-01

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Has climatic warming altered spring flowering date of Sonoran Desert shrubs?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

2007-01-01

With global warming, flowering at many locations has shifted toward earlier dates of bloom. A steady increase in average annual temperature since the late 1890s makes it likely that flowering also has advanced in the northern Sonoran Desert of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In this study, phenological models were used to predict annual date of spring bloom in the northern Sonoran Desert from 1894 to 2004; then, herbarium specimens were assessed for objective evidence of the predicted shift in flowering time. The phenological models were derived from known flowering requirements (triggers and heat sums) of Sonoran Desert shrubs. According to the models, flowering might have advanced by 20-41 d from 1894 to 2004. Analysis of herbarium specimens collected during the 20th century supported the model predictions. Over time, there was a significant increase in the proportion of shrub specimens collected in flower in March and a significant decrease in the proportion collected in May. Thus, the flowering curve - the proportion of individuals in flower in each spring month - shifted toward the start of the calendar year between 1900 and 1999. This shift could not be explained by collection activity: collectors showed no tendency to be active earlier in the year as time went on, nor did activity toward the end of spring decline in recent decades. Earlier bloom eventually could have substantial impacts on plant and animal communities in the Sonoran Desert, especially on migratory hummingbirds and population dynamics of shrubs.
The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Ottlé, Catherine; Peng, Shushi; Janssens, Ivan A; Lin, Xin; Poulter, Benjamin; Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe

2014-05-01

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Water-Surface Elevations, Discharge, and Water-Quality Data for Selected Sites in the Warm Springs Area near Moapa, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beck, David A.; Ryan, Roslyn; Veley, Ronald J.; Harper, Donald P.; Tanko, Daron J.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Nevada Division of Water Resources, operates and maintains a surface-water monitoring network of 6 continuous-record stream-flow gaging stations and 11 partial-record stations in the Warm Springs area near Moapa, Nevada. Permanent land-surface bench marks were installed within the Warm Springs area by the Las Vegas Valley Water District, the Southern Nevada Water Authority, and the U.S. Geological Survey to determine water-surface elevations at all network monitoring sites. Vertical datum elevation and horizontal coordinates were established for all bench marks through a series of Differential Global Positioning System surveys. Optical theodolite surveys were made to transfer Differential Global Positioning System vertical datums to reference marks installed at each monitoring site. The surveys were completed in June 2004 and water-surface elevations were measured on August 17, 2004. Water-surface elevations ranged from 1,810.33 feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988 at a stream-gaging station in the Pederson Springs area to 1,706.31 feet at a station on the Muddy River near Moapa. Discharge and water-quality data were compiled for the Warm Springs area and include data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Nevada Division of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Moapa Valley Water District, Desert Research Institute, and Converse Consultants. Historical and current hydrologic data-collection networks primarily are related to changes in land- and water-use activities in the Warm Springs area. These changes include declines in ranching and agricultural use, the exportation of water to other areas of Moapa Valley, and the creation of a national wildlife refuge. Water-surface elevations, discharge, and water-quality data compiled for the Warm Springs area will help identify (1) effects of changing vegetation within the former agricultural lands, (2) effects of restoration activities in the wildlife refuge, and (3) potential impacts of ground-water withdrawals.
Spring Temperatures Alone Cannot Explain Timing of Budburst of Boreal-Temperate Tree Species under Experimental Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, R. A.; Reich, P. B.; Rich, R. L.; Stefanski, A.

2011-12-01

Phenology, the timing of seasonal biological events such as budburst, blossom dates, bird migration and insect development, is critical to understanding species interactions (e.g. pollination, herbivory); determines growing season length in many (i.e. seasonal) terrestrial ecosystems; and can play a role in determining species range limits. There is ample evidence that plant and animal phenology has changed in recent decades. For trees in seasonally cold climates, change is most commonly manifested as earlier budburst, likely caused by earlier onset of warming temperatures in spring. Indeed, it is often assumed that one of the major phenological responses of temperate and boreal forest ecosystems to climate change will be earlier leafing and concomitantly, a longer growing season. However, spring warming interacts with other factors such as winter chilling and photoperiod to determine timing of spring leafing. For example, warmer winters could reduce the duration and amount of chilling experienced by dormant buds and lead to delayed budburst. Despite knowledge that such interactions exist, we know little about the interactive mechanisms by which various cues influence budburst in forest tree species or whether species differ in sensitivity to those cues. This gap hinders our ability to predict phenological responses and their ecological impacts under future climate scenarios. Over the past three years, we have conducted studies of leafing phenology, germination, photosynthesis, respiration, and growth of seedlings of ten boreal-temperate tree species subjected to experimental warming using infrared heat lamps and soil heating cables. Seedlings were planted into plots receiving ambient, +1.8°C or +3.6°C temperature treatments in open, aspen forest at the Cloquet Forestry Center, Cloquet, MN, USA (46°31' N, 92°30' W, 386 m a.s.l.; 4.5°C MAT, 807 mm MAP). While all species responded to warming by advancing the absolute date of budburst, several lines of evidence support the role of other factors, namely photoperiod or chilling, in co-determining observed responses. First, a number of species showed non-linear responses in absolute day of year of budburst across levels of warming: specifically, some species did not advance the date of budburst in +3.6°C compared to +1.8°C treatments. Second, if warming was the only cue for budburst, then one would expect that the plants would break bud after the same amount of warming regardless of treatment (i.e. at the same thermal time) and thus they would reach that threshold earlier in the warmed treatments (i.e. earlier absolute time). This was not observed. Instead, using thermal time to budburst rather than absolute date of budburst, we found that all species required more warming to break bud in warmed compared to unwarmed treatments. Lastly, when we examined the relationship between thermal time to budburst and chill days, we found that longer thermal time to budburst was associated with reduced chilling. Taken together, these three lines of evidence suggest that spring warming is not the only cue for budburst. Future research and modelling must recognize the role of other cues.
Direct Radiative Effects of Aerosols Over South Asia From Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Babu, S. Suresh; Manoj, M. R.; Moorthy, Krishna K.; Chin, Mian

2016-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the seasonal variations in the direct radiative effect (DRE) of composite aerosols as well as the constituent species over the Indian sub continent has been carried out using a synergy of observations from a dense network of ground based aerosol observatories and modeling based on chemical transport model simulations. Seasonal variation of aerosol constituents depict significant influence of anthropogenic aerosol sources in winter and the dominance of natural sources in spring, even though the aerosol optical depth doesn't change significantly between these two seasons. A significant increase in the surface cooling and atmospheric warming has been observed as season changes from winter DRE(sub SUR) = -28 +/- 12 W m(exp -2) and DRE(sub ATM) = +19.6 +/- 9 W m(exp -2) to spring DRE(sub SUR) = -33.7 +/- 12 W m(exp -2) and DRE(sub ATM) = +27 +/- 9 W m(exp-2). Interestingly, springtime aerosols are more absorptive in nature compared to winter and consequently the aerosol induced diabatic heating of the atmosphere goes as high as approximately 1 K day(exp -1) during spring, especially over eastern India. The atmospheric DRE due to dust aerosols (+14 +/- 7 W m(exp 2) during spring overwhelms that of black carbon DRE (+11.8 +/- 6 W m(exp -2) during winter. The DRE at the top of the atmosphere is mostly governed by the anthropogenic aerosols during all the seasons. The columnar aerosol loading, its anthropogenic fraction and radiative effects shows a steady increase with latitude across Indian mainland leading to a larger aerosol-induced atmospheric warming during spring than in winter.
Direct radiative effects of aerosols over South Asia from observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Babu, S. Suresh; Manoj, M. R.; Moorthy, K. Krishna; Chin, Mian

2017-08-01

Quantitative assessment of the seasonal variations in the direct radiative effect (DRE) of composite aerosols as well as the constituent species over the Indian sub continent has been carried out using a synergy of observations from a dense network of ground based aerosol observatories and modeling based on chemical transport model simulations. Seasonal variation of aerosol constituents depict significant influence of anthropogenic aerosol sources in winter and the dominance of natural sources in spring, even though the aerosol optical depth doesn't change significantly between these two seasons. A significant increase in the surface cooling and atmospheric warming has been observed as season changes from winter (DRESUR = -28 ± 12 W m-2 and DREATM = +19.6 ± 9 W m-2) to spring (DRESUR = -33.7 ± 12 W m-2 and DREATM = +27 ± 9 W m-2). Interestingly, springtime aerosols are more absorptive in nature compared to winter and consequently the aerosol induced diabatic heating of the atmosphere goes as high as 1 K day-1 during spring, especially over eastern India. The atmospheric DRE due to dust aerosols (+14 ± 7 W m-2) during spring overwhelms that of black carbon DRE (+11.8 ± 6 W m-2) during winter. The DRE at the top of the atmosphere is mostly governed by the anthropogenic aerosols during all the seasons. The columnar aerosol loading, its anthropogenic fraction and radiative effects shows a steady increase with latitude across Indian mainland leading to a larger aerosol-induced atmospheric warming during spring than in winter.
Urbanization may reduce the risk of frost damage to spring flowers: A case study of two shrub species in South Korea

PubMed Central

Gim, Hyeon-Ju; Kim, Jinwon; Lee, Eun Ju

2018-01-01

Regional warming, owing to urbanization, leads to earlier spring phenological events and may expose plants to hard freeze damage. This study examined the influence of urbanization on the risk of frost damage to spring flowers in South Korea from 1973 to 2015. For the analysis period, we categorized 25 cities into two groups: those showing rapid population growth (rPG) ≥ 200,000, including 13 cities, and those showing no or decreased population growth (nPG), including 12 cities. We then investigated the time from the last frost dates (LFDs) in spring to the first flowering dates (FFDs) for each group. The rPG group experienced significant spring warming of 0.47°C per decade, resulting in earlier LFDs and FFDs. For this group, the advancement of LFD was more rapid than that of FFD, and the days between these two dates increased from 0.42 to 0.47 days per decade, implying a reduced risk of frost damage. Spring warming and the advancement of FFDs and LFDs were relatively small for the nPG group, and the LFDs were rather delayed. Consequently, the days between LFDs and FFDs were reduced from −1.05 to −1.67 days per decade, indicating an increased risk of frost damage. The contrasting changes in the frost-damage risk between the two city groups can be attributed to distinct urban warming at night, which makes the LFDs substantially earlier in the rPG group. Therefore, this study suggests that the warming associated with urbanization may lessen the risk of spring frost damage to plants in rapidly growing urban areas. PMID:29415073
Urbanization may reduce the risk of frost damage to spring flowers: A case study of two shrub species in South Korea.

PubMed

Gim, Hyeon-Ju; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Lee, Eun Ju

2018-01-01

Regional warming, owing to urbanization, leads to earlier spring phenological events and may expose plants to hard freeze damage. This study examined the influence of urbanization on the risk of frost damage to spring flowers in South Korea from 1973 to 2015. For the analysis period, we categorized 25 cities into two groups: those showing rapid population growth (rPG) ≥ 200,000, including 13 cities, and those showing no or decreased population growth (nPG), including 12 cities. We then investigated the time from the last frost dates (LFDs) in spring to the first flowering dates (FFDs) for each group. The rPG group experienced significant spring warming of 0.47°C per decade, resulting in earlier LFDs and FFDs. For this group, the advancement of LFD was more rapid than that of FFD, and the days between these two dates increased from 0.42 to 0.47 days per decade, implying a reduced risk of frost damage. Spring warming and the advancement of FFDs and LFDs were relatively small for the nPG group, and the LFDs were rather delayed. Consequently, the days between LFDs and FFDs were reduced from -1.05 to -1.67 days per decade, indicating an increased risk of frost damage. The contrasting changes in the frost-damage risk between the two city groups can be attributed to distinct urban warming at night, which makes the LFDs substantially earlier in the rPG group. Therefore, this study suggests that the warming associated with urbanization may lessen the risk of spring frost damage to plants in rapidly growing urban areas.
The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

PubMed

Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S

2016-02-01

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
WARM SPRINGS CREEK GEOTHERMAL STUDY, BLAIN COUNTY IDAHO, 1987

EPA Science Inventory

In the Warm Springs Creek drainage near Ketchum, Idaho (17040219), a leaking pipeline coveys geothermal water through the valley to heat nearby homes as well as to supply a resorts swimming pool. Several domestic wells in close proximity to this line have exhibited increasing fl...
Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean warm pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie

2012-01-01

In 2011, East Africa faced a tragic food crisis that led to famine conditions in parts of Somalia and severe food shortages in parts of Ethiopia and Somalia. While many nonclimatic factors contributed to this crisis (high global food prices, political instability, and chronic poverty, among others) failed rains in both the boreal winter of 2010/11 and the boreal spring of 2011 played a critical role. The back-to-back failures of these rains, which were linked to the dominant La Niña climate and warm SSTs in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, were particularly problematic since they followed poor rainfall during the spring and summer of 2008 and 2009. In fact, in parts of East Africa, in recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the number of below-normal rainy seasons, which may be related to the warming of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans (for more details, see Funk et al. 2008; Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012). The basic argument of this work is that recent warming in the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) enhances the export of geopotential height energy from the warm pool, which tends to produce subsidence across eastern Africa and reduce onshore moisture transports. The general pattern of this disruption has been supported by canonical correlation analyzes and numerical experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (Funk et al. 2008), diagnostic evaluations of reanalysis data (Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011), and SST-driven experiments with ECHAM4.5, ECHAM5, and the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3.6) (Lyon and DeWitt 2012).
Relative abundance and distribution of fishes and crayfish at Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge, Nye County, Nevada, 2007-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scoppettone, G. Gary; Rissler, Peter; Johnson, Danielle; Hereford, Mark

2011-01-01

This study provides baseline data of native and non-native fish populations in Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Nye County, Nevada, that can serve as a gauge in native fish enhancement efforts. In support of Carson Slough restoration, comprehensive surveys of Ash Meadows NWR fishes were conducted seasonally from fall 2007 through summer 2008. A total of 853 sampling stations were created using Geographic Information Systems and National Agricultural Imagery Program. In four seasons of sampling, Amargosa pupfish (genus Cyprinodon) was captured at 388 of 659 stations. The number of captured Amargosa pupfish ranged from 5,815 (winter 2008) to 8,346 (summer 2008). The greatest success in capturing Amargosa pupfish was in warm water spring-pools with temperature greater than 25 degrees C, headwaters of warm water spring systems, and shallow (depths less than 10 centimeters) grassy marshes. In four seasons of sampling, Ash Meadows speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus nevadesis) was captured at 96 of 659 stations. The number of captured Ash Meadows speckled dace ranged from 1,009 (summer 2008) to 1,552 (winter 2008). The greatest success in capturing Ash Meadows speckled dace was in cool water spring-pools with temperature less than 20 degrees C and in the high flowing water outflows. Among 659 sampling stations within the range of Amargosa pupfish, red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) was collected at 458 stations, western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) at 374 stations, and sailfin molly (Poecilia latipinna) at 128 stations. School Springs was restored during the course of this study. Prior to restoration of School Springs, maximum Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis pectoralis) captured from the six springs of the Warm Springs Complex was 765 (fall 2007). In four seasons of sampling, Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish were captured at 85 of 177 stations. The greatest success in capturing Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish when co-occurring with red swamp crayfish and western mosquitofish was in water with temperature greater than 26 degrees C near the springhead, and in shallow (depths less than 10 centimeters) grassy marshes. Among 177 sampling stations within the range of Warm Springs Amargosa pupfish, red swamp crayfish were collected at 96 stations and western mosquitofish were collected at 49 stations. Removal of convict cichlid (Amatitlania nigrofasciata) from Fairbanks Spring was followed by a substantial increase in Ash Meadows Amargosa pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis mionectes) captures from 910 pre-removal to 3,056 post-removal. Red swamp crayfish was continually removed from Bradford 1 Spring, which seemed to cause an increase in the speckled dace population. Restoration of Kings Pool and Jackrabbit Springs promoted the success of native fishes with the greatest densities in restored reaches. Ongoing restoration of Carson Slough and its tributaries, as well as control and elimination of invasive species, is expected to increase abundance and distribution of Ash Meadows' native fish populations. Further analysis of data from this study will help determine the habitat characteristic(s) that promote native species and curtail non-native species.
Geothermal Potential of Marine Corps Mountain Warfare Training Center at Pickel Meadow, California.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-01

even electrical power generation, since throughout these areas warm wells, hot springs, and warm springs occur. The Pickel Meadow area is U.S. Forest...are Mesozoic granitic and Cretaceous rocks. Warm wells occur at the town of Walker (Antelope Valley), which probably indi- cates that hot water is...These sediments were deposited during tile erosional interval between Oligocene volcanism and late Miocene volcanism. Tile Mio-Pliocene andesitic rocks
Spring-fen habitat islands in a warming climate: Partitioning the effects of mesoclimate air and water temperature on aquatic and terrestrial biota.

PubMed

Horsák, Michal; Polášková, Vendula; Zhai, Marie; Bojková, Jindřiška; Syrovátka, Vít; Šorfová, Vanda; Schenková, Jana; Polášek, Marek; Peterka, Tomáš; Hájek, Michal

2018-09-01

Climate warming and associated environmental changes lead to compositional shifts and local extinctions in various ecosystems. Species closely associated with rare island-like habitats such as groundwater-dependent spring fens can be severely threatened by these changes due to a limited possibility to disperse. It is, however, largely unknown to what extent mesoclimate affects species composition in spring fens, where microclimate is buffered by groundwater supply. We assembled an original landscape-scale dataset on species composition of the most waterlogged parts of isolated temperate spring fens in the Western Carpathian Mountains along with continuously measured water temperature and hydrological, hydrochemical, and climatic conditions. We explored a set of hypotheses about the effects of mesoclimate air and local spring-water temperature on compositional variation of aquatic (macroinvertebrates), semi-terrestrial (plants) and terrestrial (land snails) components of spring-fen biota, categorized as habitat specialists and other species (i.e. matrix-derived). Water temperature did not show a high level of correlation with mesoclimate. For all components, fractions of compositional variation constrained to temperature were statistically significant and higher for habitat specialists than for other species. The importance of air temperature at the expense of water temperature and its fluctuation clearly increased with terrestriality, i.e. from aquatic macroinvertebrates via vegetation (bryophytes and vascular plants) to land snails, with January air temperature being the most important factor for land snails and plant specialists. Some calcareous-fen specialists with a clear distribution centre in temperate Europe showed a strong affinity to climatically cold sites in our study area and may hence be considered as threatened by climate warming. We conclude that prediction models solely based on air temperature may provide biased estimates of future changes in spring fen communities, because their aquatic and semiterrestrial components are largely affected by water temperature that is modified by local hydrological and landscape settings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine.

PubMed

Marrot, Pascal; Charmantier, Anne; Blondel, Jacques; Garant, Dany

2018-05-01

Evolutionary adaptation as a response to climate change is expected for fitness-related traits affected by climate and exhibiting genetic variance. Although the relationship between warmer spring temperature and earlier timing of reproduction is well documented, quantifications and predictions of the impact of global warming on natural selection acting on phenology in wild populations remain rare. If global warming affects fitness in a similar way across individuals within a population, or if fitness consequences are independent of phenotypic variation in key-adaptive traits, then no evolutionary response is expected for these traits. Here, we quantified the selection pressures acting on laying date during a 24-year monitoring of blue tits in southern Mediterranean France, a hot spot of climate warming. We explored the temporal fluctuation in annual selection gradients and we determined its temperature-related drivers. We first investigated the month-specific warming since 1970 in our study site and tested its influence on selection pressures, using a model averaging approach. Then, we quantified the selection strength associated with temperature anomalies experienced by the blue tit population. We found that natural selection acting on laying date significantly fluctuated both in magnitude and in sign across years. After identifying a significant warming in spring and summer, we showed that warmer daily maximum temperatures in April were significantly associated with stronger selection pressures for reproductive timing. Our results indicated an increase in the strength of selection by 46% for every +1°C anomaly. Our results confirm the general assumption that recent climate change translates into strong selection favouring earlier breeders in passerine birds. Our findings also suggest that differences in fitness among individuals varying in their breeding phenology increase with climate warming. Such climate-driven influence on the strength of directional selection acting on laying date could favour an adaptive response in this trait, since it is heritable. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.
Winter warming delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub.

PubMed

Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie

2015-03-23

Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October-April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar 'Narve Viking' than in the cultivar 'Titania', but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in 'Titania'. Since 'Narve Viking' has a higher chilling requirement than 'Titania', this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of 'Narve Viking', which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter phenological traits in blackcurrant, but to various extents depending on genotype-specific differences in chilling requirement. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Winter warming delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub

PubMed Central

Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie

2015-01-01

Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October–April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar ‘Narve Viking’ than in the cultivar ‘Titania’, but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in ‘Titania’. Since ‘Narve Viking’ has a higher chilling requirement than ‘Titania’, this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of ‘Narve Viking’, which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter phenological traits in blackcurrant, but to various extents depending on genotype-specific differences in chilling requirement. PMID:25802249
Analysis of near-surface biases in ERA-Interim over the Canadian Prairies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Beljaars, Anton C. M.

2017-09-01

We quantify the biases in the diurnal cycle of temperature in ERA-Interim for both warm and cold season using hourly climate station data for four stations in Saskatchewan from 1979 to 2006. The warm season biases increase as opaque cloud cover decreases, and change substantially from April to October. The bias in mean temperature increases almost monotonically from small negative values in April to small positive values in the fall. Under clear skies, the bias in maximum temperature is of the order of -1°C in June and July, and -2°C in spring and fall; while the bias in minimum temperature increases almost monotonically from +1°C in spring to +2.5°C in October. The bias in the diurnal temperature range falls under clear skies from -2.5°C in spring to -5°C in fall. The cold season biases with surface snow have a different structure. The biases in maximum, mean and minimum temperature with a stable BL reach +1°C, +2.6°C and +3°C respectively in January under clear skies. The cold season bias in diurnal range increases from about -1.8°C in the fall to positive values in March. These diurnal biases in 2 m temperature and their seasonal trends are consistent with a high bias in both the diurnal and seasonal amplitude of the model ground heat flux, and a warm season daytime bias resulting from the model fixed leaf area index. Our results can be used as bias corrections in agricultural modeling that use these reanalysis data, and also as a framework for understanding model biases.
Spring snow albedo feedback in daily data over Russia: Comparing in-situ measurements with reanalysis products.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegmann, M.; Zolina, O.; Jacobi, H. W.

2016-12-01

Global warming is enhanced at high northern latitudes where the Arctic surface air temperature has risen at twice the rate of the global average in recent decades - a feature called Arctic amplification. This recent Arctic warming signal likely results from several factors such as the albedo feedback due to a diminishing cryosphere, enhanced poleward atmospheric and oceanic heat transport, and changes in humidity. Surface albedo feedback is stating that the additional amount of shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere decreases with decreasing surface albedo whereas surface air temperature increases with decreasing surface albedo. It is considered a positive feedback in that an initial warming perturbation than kicks off a strengthening warming. Looking at the Northern Hemisphere with its large landmasses, snow albedo feedback is especially strong since most of these landmasses experience snow cover during boreal wintertime. Unfortunately, so far there remains a lack of reliable observational data over large parts of the cryosphere. Satellite products cover large parts of the NH, however lack high temporal resolution and have problems with large solar zenith angles as well as over complex terrain (eg. Wang et al. 2014). Our analysis focuses at the Russian territory where we utilize in-situ radiation and snow depth measurements. We found 50 stations which measure both variables on a daily basis for the period 2000-2013. Since Hall (2004) found that 50% of the notal NH snow albedo feedback caused by global warming occurs during NH spring, we focus on the transition period of March to June (MAMJ). Thackeray & Fletcher 2006 compared albedo feedback processes CMIP3 and CMIP5 model families and found while the models represent the feedback process accurately, there are still inherent biases and outdated parameterizations. Therefore we use the daily observations and state of the art reanalysis products to 1) evaluate reanalysis and model products in respect to radiation properties, 2) investigate snow albedo feedbacks on a daily scale during spring and 3) to suggest climate change signals over Russia in albedo feedback between 2000 - 2013 based on in-situ measurements.
Asynchrony in host and parasite phenology may decrease disease risk in livestock under climate warming: Nematodirus battus in lambs as a case study.

PubMed

Gethings, Owen J; Rose, Hannah; Mitchell, Siân; Van Dijk, Jan; Morgan, Eric R

2015-09-01

Mismatch in the phenology of trophically linked species as a result of climate warming has been shown to have far-reaching effects on animal communities, but implications for disease have so far received limited attention. This paper presents evidence suggestive of phenological asynchrony in a host-parasite system arising from climate change, with impacts on transmission. Diagnostic laboratory data on outbreaks of infection with the pathogenic nematode Nematodirus battus in sheep flocks in the UK were used to validate region-specific models of the effect of spring temperature on parasite transmission. The hatching of parasite eggs to produce infective larvae is driven by temperature, while the availability of susceptible hosts depends on lambing date, which is relatively insensitive to inter-annual variation in spring temperature. In southern areas and in warmer years, earlier emergence of infective larvae in spring was predicted, with decline through mortality before peak availability of susceptible lambs. Data confirmed model predictions, with fewer outbreaks recorded in those years and regions. Overlap between larval peaks and lamb availability was not reduced in northern areas, which experienced no decreases in the number of reported outbreaks. Results suggest that phenological asynchrony arising from climate warming may affect parasite transmission, with non-linear but predictable impacts on disease burden. Improved understanding of complex responses of host-parasite systems to climate change can contribute to effective adaptation of parasite control strategies.
First-year growth, recruitment, and maturity of walleyes in western Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Knight, Roger L.; Kershner, Mark W.; Hansen, Michael J.

1996-01-01

In some lakes, first-year growth of walleyes Stizostedion vitreum has been identified as an important factor governing recruitment of juveniles to the adult population. We developed a regression model for walleye recruitment in western Lake Erie by considering factors such as first-year growth, size of the spawning stock, the rate at which the lake warmed during the spring, and abundance of gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum. Gizzard shad abundance during the fall prior to spring walleye spawning explained over 40% of the variation in walleye recruitment. Gizzard shad are relatively high in lipids and are preferred prey for walleyes in Lake Erie. Therefore, the high degree of correlation between shad abundance and subsequent walleye recruitment supported the contention that mature females needed adequate lipid reserves during the winter to spawn the following spring. According to the regression analysis, spring warming rate and size of the parental stock also influenced walleye recruitment. Our regression model explained 92% of the variation in recruitment of age-2 fish into the Lake Erie walleye population from 1981 to 1993. The regression model is potentially valuable as a management tool because it could be used to forecast walleye recruitment to the fishery 2 years in advance. First-year growth was poorly correlated with recruitment, which may reflect the unusually low incidence of walleye cannibalism in western Lake Erie. In contrast, first-year growth was strongly linked to age at maturity.
Study of aerosol effect on accelerated snow melting over the Tibetan Plateau during boreal spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Woo-Seop; Bhawar, Rohini L.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Sang, Jeong

2013-08-01

In the present study, a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) is used to investigate the role of aerosol forcing agents as drivers of snow melting trends in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region. Anthropogenic aerosol-induced snow cover changes in a warming climate are calculated from the difference between historical run (HIST) and all forcing except anthropogenic aerosol (NoAA). Absorbing aerosols can influence snow cover by warming the atmosphere, reducing snow reflectance after deposition. The warming the rate of snow melt, exposing darker surfaces below to short-wave radiation sooner, and allowing them to heat up even faster in the Himalayas and TP. The results show a strong spring snow cover decrease over TP when absorbing anthropogenic aerosol forcing is considered, whereas snow cover fraction (SCF) trends in NoAA are weakly negative (but insignificant) during 1951-2005. The enhanced spring snow cover trends in HIST are due to overall effects of different forcing agents: When aerosol forcing (AERO) is considered, a significant reduction of SCF than average can be found over the western TP and Himalayas. The large decreasing trends in SCF over the TP, with the maximum reduction of SCF around 12-15% over the western TP and Himalayas slope. Also accelerated snow melting during spring is due to effects of aerosol on snow albedo, where aerosol deposition cause decreases snow albedo. However, the SCF change in the “NoAA” simulations was observed to be less.
Warm Springs: People of the Community Create Their Own Museum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patt, Olney, Jr.

1995-01-01

Since 1974, Paiute, Wasco, and Warm Springs leaders have invested over $850,000 to purchase more than 2,000 artifacts and 2,500 archival photographs and documents for a museum. Addresses the relevance of preserving cultural artifacts, the importance of finding young apprentices to carry on crafts, and the significance of preserving native…
OVERVIEW OF GOLD HILL MILL, ROAD, AND WHITE PINE TALC ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

OVERVIEW OF GOLD HILL MILL, ROAD, AND WHITE PINE TALC MINE LOOKING EAST. THE OPENING TO THE TALC MINE IS IN THE DARK AREA AT CENTER LEFT EDGE. WARM SPRINGS CAMP IS OUT OF FRAME TO THE RIGHT. - Gold Hill Mill, Warm Spring Canyon Road, Death Valley Junction, Inyo County, CA
Solar Eclipse Engagement and Outreach in Madras and Warm Springs, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, M. S.; Pesnell, W. D.; Ahern, S.; Boyle, M.; Gonzales, T.; Leone, C.

2017-12-01

The Central Oregon towns of Madras and Warm Springs were in an ideal location to observe the total solar eclipse of 2017. In anticipation of this event, we embarked on a yearlong partnership to engage and excite these communities. We developed educational events for all students in the school district, grades K-12, as well as two evening keynote addresses during an eclipse week in May. This eclipse week provided resources, learning opportunities, and safety information for all students and families prior to the end of the school year. With the collaboration of graphic design students at Oregon State University, we produced static educational displays as an introduction to the Museum at Warm Springs' exhibit featuring eclipse art. The weekend before the eclipse, we gave away 15,000 pairs of solar viewing glasses to the local community and manned a science booth at the Oregon Solarfest to engage the arriving eclipse tourists. These efforts culminated on Monday, August 21st with tens of thousands of people viewing eclipse totality in Madras and Warm Springs.
Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2015-06-02

Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.
[Effects of sowing times on the spike differentiation of different wheat varieties under the climate of warm winter].

PubMed

Gao, Qinglu; Xue, Xiang; Wu, Yu; Ru, Zhengang

2003-10-01

Spike differentiation processes and freezing damage of three wheat varieties were studied by sowing in different stages. The results showed that under the condition of weather changing warm, the time of entering each stage of spike differentiation of wheat of strong spring variety was earlier than that of wheat of spring variety and semi-winter variety. Sowing times had more effects on durative time of the elongation stage, single-prism stage and two-prism stage of the spike differentiation. Under sowing early, the stronger the springness of wheat was, the quicker it developed, the higher spike differentiation phases it reached before winter, and the more serious freezing damage it suffered in wintering. According to this, the semi-winter varieties of wheat should be adopted first and arranged in pairs with spring varieties in wheat production, and the sowing times should not be too early as the weather becoming warm.
Mechanisms of Robust Future Spring Drying in the Southwest U.S. in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Seager, R.; Li, C.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

The net surface water budget, precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), shows a clear seasonal cycle in the American Southwest with net gain of surface water (positive P-E) in the cold half of the year (October to March) and net loss of water (negative P-E) in the warmer half (April - September), with June and July being the driest time of the year. There is a significant shift of the summer drying toward earlier in the year under CO2 warming scenario, resulting in substantial spring drying (MAM) of the American Southwest, from the near-term future (2021 - 2040) to the end of the current Century with gradually increasing magnitude. While the spring drying has been identified in previous studies, its mechanism has not been fully addressed. Using moisture budget analysis, we found that the drying is mainly due to decreased mean moisture convergence, partially compensated by the increase in transient eddy moisture flux convergence. The decreased mean moisture convergence is further separated into those due to changes in circulation (dynamic changes) and changes in atmospheric moisture content (thermodynamic changes). The drying is found to be dominated by the thermodynamic driven changes in column averaged moisture convergence, due mainly to increased dry zonal advection caused by the climatological land-ocean thermal contrast, rather than by the well-known "dry gets drier" mechanism. Furthermore, the enhanced dry advection in the warming climate is dominated by the robust zonal mean atmospheric warming, thus the spring drying in Southwest US is very robust. We also discuss reasons this future drying is particularly strong in the spring as compared to the other seasons.
Ecosystem Warming Affects Vertical Distribution of Leaf Gas Exchange Properties and Water Relations of Spring Wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The vertical distribution of gas exchange and water relations responses to full-season in situ infrared (IR) warming were evaluated for hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in an open field in a semiarid desert region of the Southwest USA. A Temperature Free-Air Contro...
Gas exchange and water relations responses of spring wheat to full-season infrared warming

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Gas exchange and water relations responses to full-season in situ infrared (IR) warming were evaluated for hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in an open field in a semi-arid desert region of the Southwest USA. A Temperature Free-Air Controlled Enhancement (T-FACE) ap...
Gas Exchange and Water Relations Responses of Spring Wheat to Full-Season Infrared Warming

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Gas exchange and water relations were evaluated under full-season in situ infrared (IR) warming for hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in an open field in a semiarid desert region of the southwest USA. A temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) apparatus u...
On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Suarez, Max

2013-01-01

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.
European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliavacca, M.; Cremonese, E.; Colombo, R.; Busetto, L.; Galvagno, M.; Ganis, L.; Meroni, M.; Pari, E.; Rossini, M.; Siniscalco, C.; Morra di Cella, U.

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (BGS) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (LGS) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.
European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

PubMed

Migliavacca, M; Cremonese, E; Colombo, R; Busetto, L; Galvagno, M; Ganis, L; Meroni, M; Pari, E; Rossini, M; Siniscalco, C; Morra di Cella, U

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (B(GS)) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (L(GS)) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.
Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Zhang, Rong; Anderson, Whit G.; Zeng, Fanrong; Stock, Charles A.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dixon, Keith W.; Griffies, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.
Impacts of Snow Darkening by Absorbing Aerosols on Eurasian Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K M.; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Koster, Randal D.

2016-01-01

The deposition of absorbing aerosols on snow surfaces reduces snow-albedo and allows snowpack to absorb more sunlight. This so-called snow darkening effect (SDE) accelerates snow melting and leads to surface warming in spring. To examine the impact of SDE on weather and climate during late spring and early summer, two sets of NASA GEOS-5 model simulations with and without SDE are conducted. Results show that SDE-induced surface heating is particularly pronounced in Eurasian regions where significant depositions of dust transported from the North African deserts, and black carbon from biomass burning from Asia and Europe occur. In these regions, the surface heating due to SDE increases surface skin temperature by 3-6 degrees Kelvin near the snowline in spring. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that SDE-induced excess heating is associated with a large increase in surface evaporation, subsequently leading to a significant reduction in soil moisture, and increased risks of drought and heat waves in late spring to early summer. Overall, we find that rainfall deficit combined with SDE-induced dry soil in spring provide favorable condition for summertime heat waves over large regions of Eurasia. Increased frequency of summer heat waves with SDE and the region of maximum increase in heat-wave frequency are found along the snow line, providing evidence that early snowmelt by SDE may increase the risks of extreme summer heat wave. Our results suggest that climate models that do not include SDE may significantly underestimate the effect of global warming over extra-tropical continental regions.

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.
The Relationship of Temperature to Strength and Power Production in Intact Human Skeletal Muscle.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-06-01

Kramer (1961) found that when all knowledge of the warm-up was eliminated with hypnosis , no significant change was found in ergometer ride time. The warm...2.0 to 2.5 centi- meters. A Yellow Springs Instrument (YSI) series 500 hypodermic probe was used in conjunction with a YSI Telethermometer model 46TUC... instrument is accomplished by using one of four different capacitance circuits to suppress the oscillitory effects of the input energy. A damping of 0 provides
Interannual variations in spring phenology and their response to climate change across the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013.

PubMed

Liu, Lingling; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Donnelly, Alison; Liu, Xinjie

2016-10-01

Land surface phenology has been widely used to evaluate the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in recent decades. Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau (1960-2010, 0.2 °C/decade) has been found to be greater than the global average (1951-2012, 0.12 °C/decade), which has had a significant impact on the timing of spring greenup. However, the magnitude and direction of change in spring phenology and its response to warming temperature and precipitation are currently under scientific debate. In an attempt to explore this issue further, we detected the onset of greenup based on the time series of daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) long-term data record (LTDR; 1982-1999) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG; 2000-2013) using hybrid piecewise logistic models. Further, we examined the temporal trend in greenup onset in both individual pixels and ecoregions across the entire Tibetan Plateau over the following periods: 1982-1999, 2000-2013, and 1982-2013. The interannual variation in greenup onset was linked to the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the preceding month, and total precipitation during winter and spring, respectively. Finally, we investigated the relationship between interannual variation in greenup onset dates and temperature and precipitation from 1982 to 2013 at different elevational zones for different ecoregions. The results revealed no significant trend in the onset of greenup from 1982 to 2013 in more than 86 % of the Tibetan Plateau. For each study period, statistically significant earlier greenup trends were observed mainly in the eastern meadow regions while later greenup trends mainly occurred in the southwestern steppe and meadow regions both with areal coverage of less than 8 %. Although spring phenology was negatively correlated with spring temperature and precipitation in the majority of pixels (>60 %), only 15 % and 10 % of these correlations were significant (P < 0.1), respectively. Climate variables had varying effects on the ecoregions with altitude. In the meadow ecoregion, greenup onset was significantly affected by both temperature and precipitation from 3500 to 4000 m altitude and by temperature alone from 4000 to 4500 m. In contrast, greenup onset across all elevational zones, in the steppe ecoregion, was not directly driven by either spring temperature or precipitation, which was likely impacted by soil moisture associated with warming temperature. These findings highlight the complex impacts of climate change on spring phenology in the Tibetan Plateau.
Subsurface Structure Mapping Using Geophysical Data in Candi Umbul-Telomoyo, Magelang, Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Affanti, A. P.; Prastyani, E.; Maghfira, P. D.; Niasari, S. W.

2018-04-01

Candi Umbul warm spring is one of the manifestations in the Telomoyo geothermal prospect area. A geophysical survey had been conducted using VLF (Very Low Frequency) EM, VLF R and magnetic methods in the Candi Umbul-Telomoyo. VLF EM, VLF R and magnetic data were aimed to image the conductivity and magnetic anomalies distribution of the subsurface beneath the Candi Umbul-Telomoyo. VLF EM data had been mapped with Karous-Hjelt filter and analysed by tipper analysis, VLF R data had been modelled using 2layinv and analysed using impedance analysis. On the other hand, magnetic data processing was done with upward continuation. The Karous-Hjelt filter and 2layinv models show the highest conductivity distribution that located at 4800-5000 m were correlated with tipper and impedance analyses. In addition, the high-low magnetic contrast from the quantitative magnetic data interpretation indicates a fault (which could be a fluid pathway) which is closed to the Candi Umbul warm spring manifestation.
Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow

PubMed Central

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A.; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

2016-01-01

Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system. PMID:26983697
Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A.; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

2016-03-01

Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.
Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow.

PubMed

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

2016-03-17

Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.
High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario.

PubMed

Hadano, Mayumi; Nasahara, Kenlo Nishida; Motohka, Takeshi; Noda, Hibiki Muraoka; Murakami, Kazutaka; Hosaka, Masahiro

2013-06-01

Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains.
Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Yingming; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Madenjian, Charles P.

2013-01-01

We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.
Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.
IRETHERM: Magnetotelluric Assessment of Geothermal Energy Potential of Hydrothermal Aquifer, Radiothermal Granite and Warm Spring Targets in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Alan G.; Muller, Mark; Fullea, Javier; Vozar, Jan; Blake, Sarah; Delhaye, Robert; Farrell, Thomas

2013-04-01

IRETHERM (www.iretherm.ie) is an academic-government-industry, collaborative research project, funded by Science Foundation Ireland, with the overarching objective of developing a holistic understanding of Ireland's low-enthalpy geothermal energy potential through integrated modelling of new and existing geophysical and geological data. With the exception of Permo-Triassic basins in Northern Ireland, hosting geothermal aquifers of promising but currently poorly-defined potential, rocks with high primary porosity have not been identified elsewhere. Whether any major Irish shear zones/faults might host a geothermal aquifer at depth is also unknown, although clusters of warm-springs in the vicinity of two major shear zones are promising. IRETHERM's objectives over a four-year period are to: (i) Develop multi-parameter geophysical modelling and interpretation software tools that will enhance our ability to explore for and assess deep aquifers and granitic intrusions. (ii) Model and understand temperature variations in the upper-crust. Firstly, by building a 3-D model of crustal heat-production based on geochemical analysis of surface, borehole and mid- to lower-crustal xenolith samples. Secondly, by modelling, using a fully self-consistent 3-D approach, observed surface heat-flow variation as a function of variation in the structure and thermal properties of the crust and lithosphere, additionally constrained by surface elevation, geoid, gravity, seismic and magnetotelluric (MT) data. (iii) Test a strategic set of eight "type" geothermal targets with a systematic program of electromagnetic surveys (MT, CSEM) across ten target areas. During 2012, IRETHERM collected over 220 MT/AMT sites in the investigation of a range of different geothermal target types. Here we present preliminary electrical resistivity modelling results for each target investigated and discuss the implications of the models for geothermal energy potential: 1. Rathlin Basin The only sedimentary strata in Ireland known to provide reliable primary porosity, supporting deep hydrothermal aquifers, are found in the Triassic Sherwood Sandstone Group and in the upper-Permian, preserved in several basins in Northern Ireland. Our survey over the Rathlin Basin aims to map the geometry of these strata at depth and assess their porosity and permeability characteristics. 2. Kilbrook warm spring. Kilbrook warm spring is characterised by the warmest spring waters in Ireland (24.8°C) and highest Total Dissolved Solids concentration. Our high-resolution AMT survey over this occurrence aims to image the subsurface fluid conduit systems that bring these waters to surface. 3. Leinster and Galway granites Many of Ireland's exposed granites are associated with high radioactive element concentrations, high radiogenic heat production (HP) values and elevated surface heat-flow (SHF). Surveys over two of these granites - the Leinster granite (SHF: 80 mWm-2, HP: 2-3 µWm-3) and the Galway granite (SHF: 65-77 mWm-2, HP: 4-7 µWm-3) - aim to define the geometry, volume and local/regional heating effect of the granites and assess their suitability for energy provision using EGS. The models will also be assessed for indications of naturally occurring hydrothermal aquifers associated with either major faults that cross-cut the granites or the granite-country rock contacts.
Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

PubMed

Green, David M

2017-02-01

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
A modeling study of the thermosphere-ionosphere interactions during the boreal winter and spring 2015-2016: Tidal and planetary-scale waves effect on the ionospheric structure.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sassi, F.; McDonald, S. E.; McCormack, J. P.; Tate, J.; Liu, H.; Kuhl, D.

2017-12-01

The 2015-2016 boreal winter and spring is a dynamically very interesting time in the lower atmosphere: a minor high latitude stratospheric warming occurred in February 2016; an interrupted descent of the QBO was found in the tropical stratosphere; and a large warm ENSO took place in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The stratospheric warming, the QBO and ENSO are known to affect in different ways the meteorology of the upper atmosphere in different ways: low latitude solar tides and high latitude planetary-scale waves have potentially important implications on the structure of the ionosphere. In this study, we use global atmospheric analyses from a high-altitude version of the High-Altitude Navy Global Environmental Model (HA-NAVGEM) to constrain the meteorology of numerical simulations of the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version (SD-WACCM-X). We describe the large-scale behavior of tropical tides and mid-latitude planetary waves that emerge in the lower thermosphere. The effect on the ionosphere is captured by numerical simulations of the Navy Highly Integrated Thermosphere Ionosphere Demonstration System (Navy-HITIDES) that uses the meteorology generated by SD-WACCM-X to drive ionospheric simulations during this time period. We will analyze the impact of various dynamical fields on the zonal behavior of the ionosphere by selectively filtering the relevant dynamical modes.
Morphological constraints on changing avian migration phenology.

PubMed

Møller, A P; Rubolini, D; Saino, N

2017-06-01

Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960-2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life-history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Habitat restoration as a means of controlling non-native fish in a Mojave desert Oasis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scoppettone, G.G.; Rissler, P.H.; Gourley, C.; Martinez, C.

2005-01-01

Non-native fish generally cause native fish decline, and once non-natives are established, control or elimination is usually problematic. Because non-native fish colonization has been greatest in anthropogenically altered habitats, restoring habitat similar to predisturbance conditions may offer a viable means of non-native fish control. In this investigation we identified habitats favoring native over non-native fish in a Mojave Desert oasis (Ash Meadows) and used this information to restore one of its major warm water spring systems (Kings Pool Spring). Prior to restoration, native fishes predominated in warm water (25-32??C) stream and spring-pool habitat, whereas non-natives predominated in cool water (???23??C) spring-pool and marsh/slack water habitat. Native Amargosa pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis) and Ash Meadows speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus nevadensis) inhabited significantly faster mean water column velocities (MWCV) and greater total depth (TD) than non-native Sailfin molly (Poecilia latipinna) and Mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) in warm water stream habitat, and Ash Meadows speckled dace inhabited significantly faster water than non-natives in cool water stream habitat. Modification of the outflow of Kings Pool Spring from marsh to warm water stream, with MWCV, TD, and temperature favoring native fish, changed the fish composition from predominantly non-native Sailfin molly and Mosquitofish to predominantly Ash Meadows pupfish. This result supports the hypothesis that restoring spring systems to a semblance of predisturbance conditions would promote recolonization of native fishes and deter non-native fish invasion and proliferation. ?? 2005 Society for Ecological Restoration International.
Growth, smoltification, and smolt-to-adult return of spring chinook salmon from hatcheries on the Deschutes river, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beckman, B.R.; Dickhoff, Walton W.; Zaugg, W.S.; Sharpe, C.; Hirtzel, S.; Schrock, R.; Larsen, D.A.; Ewing, R.D.; Palmisano, A.; Schreck, C.B.; Mahnken, C.V.W.

1999-01-01

The relationship between smoltification and smolt-to-adult return (SAR) of spring chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Deschutes River, Oregon, was examined for four release groups in each of three successive years. Fish were reared, marked with coded wire tags, and released from Round Butte Hatchery, Pelton Ladder rearing facility, and Warm Springs National Fish Hatchery. Smolt releases occurred in nearly the same place at similar times, allowing a direct comparison of SAR to several characters representing smolt quality. Return rates varied significantly among facilities, varying over an order of magnitude each year. The highest average SAR was from Pelton Ladder, the lowest was from Warm Springs. Each of the characters used as metrics of smoltification - fish size, spring growth rate (February-April), condition factor, plasma hormone concentration (thyroxine, cortisol, and insulin-like growth factor-I [IGF-I]), stress challenge, gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity, and liver glycogen concentration - varied significantly among facilities and seasonally within hatchery groups. However, only spring growth rate, gill ATPase activity, and plasma IGF-I concentration showed significant relationships to SAR. These characters and SAR itself were consistently lower for fish released from Warm Springs Hatchery than for fish from Round Butte Hatchery and Pelton Ladder. This demonstrates that differences in the quality of fish released by facilities may have profound effects on subsequent survival and suggests that manipulations of spring growth rate may be used to influence the quality of smolts released from facilities.
Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

2017-10-01

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.
Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, N.; Cayan, D.R.

2004-01-01

California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Previous work has shown that a projected warming would result in a reduction of snowpack storage leading to higher winter and lower spring-summer streamflows and increased spring-summer salinities in the estuary. The present work shows that these hydrologic changes exhibit a strong dependence on elevation, with the greatest loss of snowpack volume in the 1300-2700 m elevation range. Exploiting hydrologic and estuarine modeling capabilities to trace water as it moves through the system reveals that the shift of water in mid-elevations of the Sacramento river basin from snowmelt to rainfall runoff is the dominant cause of projected changes in estuarine inflows and salinity. Additionally, although spring-summer losses of estuarine inflows are balanced by winter gains, the losses have a stronger influence on salinity since longer spring-summer residence times allow the inflow changes to accumulate in the estuary. The changes in inflows sourced in the Sacramento River basin in approximately the 1300-2200 m elevation range thereby lead to a net increase in estuarine salinity under the projected warming. Such changes would impact ecosystems throughout the watershed and threaten to contaminate much of California's freshwater supply.
Winter Habitat Preferences for Florida Manatees and Vulnerability to Cold

PubMed Central

Laist, David W.; Taylor, Cynthia; Reynolds, John E.

2013-01-01

To survive cold winter periods most, if not all, Florida manatees rely on warm-water refuges in the southern two-thirds of the Florida peninsula. Most refuges are either warm-water discharges from power plant and natural springs, or passive thermal basins that temporarily trap relatively warm water for a week or more. Strong fidelity to one or more refuges has created four relatively discrete Florida manatee subpopulations. Using statewide winter counts of manatees from 1999 to 2011, we provide the first attempt to quantify the proportion of animals using the three principal refuge types (power plants, springs, and passive thermal basins) statewide and for each subpopulation. Statewide across all years, 48.5% of all manatees were counted at power plant outfalls, 17.5% at natural springs, and 34.9 % at passive thermal basins or sites with no known warm-water features. Atlantic Coast and Southwest Florida subpopulations comprised 82.2% of all manatees counted (45.6% and 36.6%, respectively) with each subpopulation relying principally on power plants (66.6% and 47.4%, respectively). The upper St. Johns River and Northwest Florida subpopulations comprised 17.8% of all manatees counted with almost all animals relying entirely on springs (99.2% and 88.6% of those subpopulations, respectively). A record high count of 5,076 manatees in January 2010 revealed minimum sizes for the four subpopulations of: 230 manatees in the upper St. Johns River; 2,548 on the Atlantic Coast; 645 in Northwest Florida; and 1,774 in Southwest Florida. Based on a comparison of carcass recovery locations for 713 manatees killed by cold stress between 1999 and 2011 and the distribution of known refuges, it appears that springs offer manatees the best protection against cold stress. Long-term survival of Florida manatees will require improved efforts to enhance and protect manatee access to and use of warm-water springs as power plant outfalls are shut down. PMID:23527063
Spring Regimes

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-15

of Albuquerque, New Mexico. . Since the system has “bottomed out” one could project a straight line northeastward (with little eastward movement of...in determining if forecast model guidance is “on track.” 14. 14. Subject Terms: CLOUDS, COMMA CLOUD, DRY LINE , GULF STRATUS, HEIGHT FALL CENTERS...4-40 Warm Fronts, Squall Lines and Mesocyclones

Naegleria

MedlinePlus

... of warm freshwater, such as lakes and rivers Geothermal (naturally hot) water, such as hot springs Warm water discharge from industrial plants Geothermal (naturally hot) drinking water sources Swimming pools that ...
Effects of growth temperature and winter duration on leaf phenology of a spring ephemeral (Gagea lutea) and a summergreen forb (Maianthemum dilatatum).

PubMed

Yoshie, Fumio

2008-09-01

Effects of growth temperature and winter duration on leaf longevity were compared between a spring ephemeral, Gagea lutea, and a forest summergreen forb, Maianthemum dilatatum. The plants were grown at day/night temperatures of 25/20 degrees C and 15/10 degrees C after a chilling treatment for variable periods at 2 degrees C. The temperature regime of 25/20 degrees C was much higher than the mean air temperatures for both species in their native habitats. Warm temperature of 25/20 degrees C and/or long chilling treatment shortened leaf longevity in G. lutea, but not in M. dilatatum. The response of G. lutea was consistent with that reported for other spring ephemerals. Air temperature increases as the vegetative season progresses. The decrease in leaf longevity in G. lutea under warm temperature condition ensures leaf senescence in summer, an unfavorable season for its growth. This also implies that early leaf senescence could occur in years with early summers. Warm spring temperatures have been shown to accelerate the leafing-out of forest trees. The decrease in leaf longevity due to warm temperature helps synchronize the period of leaf senescence roughly with the time of the forest canopy leaf-out. Prolonged winter due to late snowmelt has been shown to shorten the vegetative period for spring ephemerals. The decrease in leaf longevity due to long chilling treatment would correspond with this shortened vegetative period.
Seasonal warming of the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, S. J.

2017-02-01

The Cold Pool is a 20-60 m thick band of cold, near-bottom water that persists from spring to fall over the midshelf and outer shelf of the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and Southern Flank of Georges Bank. The Cold Pool is remnant winter water bounded above by the seasonal thermocline and offshore by warmer slope water. Historical temperature profiles are used to characterize the average annual evolution and spatial structure of the Cold Pool. The Cold Pool gradually warms from spring to summer at a rate of order 1°C month-1. The warming rate is faster in shallower water where the Cold Pool is thinner, consistent with a vertical turbulent heat flux from the thermocline to the Cold Pool. The Cold Pool warming rate also varies along the shelf; it is larger over Georges Bank and smaller in the southern MAB. The mean turbulent diffusivities at the top of the Cold Pool, estimated from the spring to summer mean heat balance, are an order of magnitude larger over Georges Bank than in the southern MAB, consistent with much stronger tidal mixing over Georges Bank than in the southern MAB. The stronger tidal mixing causes the Cold Pool to warm more rapidly over Georges Bank and the eastern New England shelf than in the New York Bight or southern MAB. Consequently, the coldest Cold Pool water is located in the New York Bight from late spring to summer.
Mixing models and ionic geothermometers applied to warm (up to 60°C) springs: Jordan Rift Valley, Israel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazor, E.; Levitte, D.; Truesdell, A.H.; Healy, J.; Nissenbaum, A.

1980-01-01

No indications are available for the existence of above-boiling geothermal systems in the Jordan Rift Valley. Slightly higher than observed temperatures are concluded for a deep component at the springs of Hammat Gader (67°C), Gofra (68°C), the Russian Garden (40°C), and the Yesha well (53–65°C). These temperatures may encourage further developments for spas and bathing installations and, to a limited extent, for space heating, but are not favorable for geothermal power generation.
How Do Trees Know When to Flower? Predicting Reproductive Phenology of Douglas-fir with Changing Winter and Spring Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prevey, J.; St Clair, B.; Harrington, C.

2016-12-01

Flowering at the right time is one of the primary ways that plants are adapted to their environment. Trees that flower too early risk cold damage to vulnerable new tissues and those that flower too late miss peak resources or may mistime flowering to coincide with other trees, altering outcrossing rates and gene flow. Past observations indicate that temperature cues over winter and spring influence the timing of flowering in many tree species. Understanding these cues is important for predicting how flowering phenology of trees will change with a changing climate.We developed predictive models of flowering for Douglas-fir, an abundant and commercially important tree in the Pacific Northwest. We assembled over 10,000 flowering observations of trees from 11 sites across western Oregon and Washington. We modeled the dates of flowering using hourly temperature data; our models of flowering were adapted from previous models of vegetative budburst and height growth initiation developed for Douglas-fir. Preliminary results show that both chilling (cold) and forcing (warm) temperatures over winter and spring are important determinants of flowering time for Douglas-fir. This suggests that as spring temperatures warm in the future, Douglas-fir across the Pacific Northwest will flower earlier, unless plants experience insufficient chilling over winter, in which case it is possible that Douglas-fir may flower later than in the past, or not flower at all. At one site, Douglas-fir genotypes from different geographic regions flowered in the same order from year to year, indicating that both temperature and heredity influence flowering. Knowledge of the environmental and genetic cues that drive the timing of flowering can help predict how changes in temperature under various climate models could change flowering time across sites. These models may also indicate the geographic areas where future climate could enhance or reduce flowering of Douglas-fir in the future.
Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains, northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Shen, Y.; Wang, N.; Pan, X.; Zhang, W.; He, J.; Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in northwest China, and it is also crucial for local ecological system, economic and social sustainable development; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both eco-environment and public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature-index model based on remote sensing coupled with high-resolution meteorological data obtained from NCEP reanalysis fields that were downscaled using Weather Research Forecasting model, then bias-corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high-resolution meteorological fields derived from downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of temperature-index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using MODIS snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature-index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash-Sutchliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt runoff was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt runoff accounts for 72% of spring runoff and 21% of annual runoff. Snowmelt is the main source of runoff for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt runoff predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt-induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high-density, long-term observational data is lacking.
Are Sierran Lakes Warming as a Result of Climate Change? The Effects of Climate Warming and Variation in Precipitation on Water Temperature in a Snowmelt-Dominated Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadro, S.; Melack, J. M.; Sickman, J. O.; Skeen, K.

2016-12-01

Water temperature regulates a broad range of fundamental ecosystem processes in lakes. While climate can be an important factor regulating lake temperatures, heterogeneity in the warming response of lakes is large, and variation in precipitation is rarely considered. We analyzed three decades of climate and water temperature data from a high-elevation catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California to illustrate the magnitude of warming taking place during different seasons and the role of precipitation in regulating lake temperatures. Significant climate warming trends were evident during all seasons except spring. Nighttime rates of climate warming were approximately 25% higher than daytime rates. Spatial patterns in warming were elevation dependent, with rates of temperature increase higher at sites above 2800 m.a.s.l. than below. Although interannual variation in snow deposition was high, the frequency and severity of recent droughts has contributed to a significant 3.4 mm year -1 decline in snow water equivalent over the last century. Snow accumulation, more than any other climate factor, regulated lake temperature; 94% of variation in summer lake temperature was regulated by precipitation as snow. For every 100 mm decrease in snow water equivalent there was a 0.62 ° increase in lake temperature. Drought years amplify warming in lakes by reducing the role of cold spring meltwaters in lake energy budgets and prolonging the ice-free period during which lakes warm. The combination of declining winter snowpack and warming air temperatures has the capacity to amplify the effect of climate warming on lake temperatures during drought years. Interactions among climatic factors need to be considered when evaluating ecosystem level effects, especially in mountain regions. For mountain lakes already affected by drought, continued climate warming during spring and autumn has the greatest potential to impact mean lake temperatures.
Climate variability and management impacts on carbon uptake in a temperate pine forest in Eastern Canada using flux data from 2003 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.; Brodeur, J. J.; Thorne, R.; Peichl, M.; Huang, S.; Khomik, M.

2014-12-01

Temperate forests play an important role in global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management regime on carbon uptake in a 75-year old temperate pine (Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada using eleven years (2003 to 2013) of eddy covariance flux data. These fluxes are compared with similar measurements made in an 80-year-old deciduous (Carolinian) forest, established in 2012. Both forests are managed stands and part of the Turkey Point Flux Station and global Fluxnet. Mean net ecosystem productivity, NEP, in the conifer stand is 145 (range 35 to 277) g C m2 y-1 over the 2003 to 2013 period, while mean NEP in the deciduous stand is 271 (226 and 317) g C m2 y-1 from 2012 to 2013. The study period experienced four distinct extreme weather patterns: warm and dry springs in 2005 and 2012, extremely wet and warm summer in 2006, a summer drought in 2007 and warm summers in 2010 and 2012. In February-March 2012, the conifer stand was selectively thinned and approximately 30% of trees were removed to improve light and water availability and stimulate growth of remaining trees. Thinning reduced NEP in the first post-thinning year, with mean annual NEP of 48 g C m2 y-1 in 2012. Increased supply of dead organic matter and warm temperatures in 2012 increased ecosystem respiration much more than photosynthesis, resulting in lower annual NEP. Heat stress and drought in spring of 2005 reduced NEP of the conifer stand to 35 g C m2 y-1. The impact of this extreme weather event on NEP was similar to that observed in 2012 when the stand experienced a drastic structural change, a dry spring and warm temperatures throughout the growing season. Observed fluxes from this forest and other Fluxnet sites were used to develop and validate a C and N coupled dynamic vegetation model, CLASS-CTEM-N that was applied to simulate terrestrial ecosystem's carbon, water and energy budgets at 0.5 x 0.5 degree spatial resolution across the globe from 1901 to 2010 as part of North American Carbon Program (NACP) site-level and model intercomparison initiatives. The inclusion of the N processes in CLASS-CTEM model has improved model response to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration levels.
Long-term changes in migration timing of Song Thrush Turdus philomelos at the southern Baltic coast in response to temperatures on route and at breeding grounds.

PubMed

Redlisiak, Michał; Remisiewicz, Magdalena; Nowakowski, Jarosław K

2018-05-26

Climate warming causes the advancement of spring arrival of many migrant birds breeding in Europe, but the effects on their autumn migration are less known. We aimed to determine any changes in the timing of Song Thrush captured during spring and autumn migrations at the Polish Baltic coast from 1975 to 2014, and if these were related to long-term changes of temperature at their breeding grounds and migration routes. The timing of spring migration at Hel ringing station in 1975-2014 did not show long-term advance, but they had responded to environmental conditions on the year-to-year basis. The warmer the temperatures were in April on their migration route, the earlier were the dates of the median and the end of spring migration at Hel. The beginning of autumn migration at the Mierzeja Wiślana ringing station advanced by 5 days between 1975 and 2014. The warmer the April on route, and the July at the Song Thrushes' breeding grounds, the earlier young birds began autumn migration across the Baltic coast. We suggest this was a combined effect of adults' migration and breeding early during warm springs and young birds getting ready faster for autumn migration during warm summers. The average time span of 90% of the autumn migration was extended by 5 days, probably because of early migration of young birds from first broods and late of those from second broods enabled by warm springs and summers. The response of Song Thrushes' migration timing to temperatures on route and at the breeding grounds indicated high plasticity in the species and suggested it might adapt well to climate changes.
Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yi, Yonghong; Kimball, John; Reichle, Rolf H.

2014-01-01

Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.
Photoperiod- and Warming-driven Phenological Changes and Carbon and Nutrient Cycling. Remote Sensing Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penuelas, J.; Fu, Y.; Estiarte, M.; Gamon, J. A.; Filella, I.; Verger, A.; Jannssens, I.

2017-12-01

Ongoing spring warming allows the growing season to begin earlier in northern ecosystems, thus enhancing their carbon uptake. We will present data on atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements to show that this spring advancement of annual carbon intake in response to warming is decreasing. Reduced chilling during dormancy and the interactions between temperature and photoperiod in driving leaf-out may play a role. We will show that short photoperiod (in warm springs when leaf-out is early) significantly increases the heat requirement for leaf-out whereas long photoperiod (in cold springs when leaf-out is late) reduces the heat requirement for leaf-out. These two contrasting photoperiod effects illustrate a complicated temperature response of leaf-out phenology. We will also discuss how photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. On average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. Warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. We will then discuss the ecological effects of these phenological changes focusing, as an example, on the impacts of changes on the phenology of leaf senescence on carbon uptake and nutrient cycling. Finally, we will present recent advances on remote sensing monitoring of both the phenological changes and their ecological impacts. We will focus on advances derived from a close correspondence between seasonally changing foliar pigment levels, expressed as chlorophyll/carotenoid ratios, and evergreen photosynthetic activity.
Forage plants of an Arctic-nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds, potentially disrupting migration phenology.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Jochems, Femke; van der Graaf, Alexandra J; Andersson, Mattias; Limpens, Juul; Nolet, Bart A

2017-04-01

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen-rich forage plants, following a "green wave" of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open-top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0-1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop-over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen-rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1-2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.
High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario

PubMed Central

Hadano, Mayumi; Nasahara, Kenlo Nishida; Motohka, Takeshi; Noda, Hibiki Muraoka; Murakami, Kazutaka; Hosaka, Masahiro

2013-01-01

Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains. PMID:23789086
Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allstadt, Andrew J.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2015-01-01

The onset of spring plant growth has shifted earlier in the year over the past several decades due to rising global temperatures. Earlier spring onset may cause phenological mismatches between the availability of plant resources and dependent animals, and potentially lead to more false springs, when subsequent freezing temperatures damage new plant growth. We used the extended spring indices to project changes in spring onset, defined by leaf out and by first bloom, and predicted false springs until 2100 in the conterminous United States (US) using statistically-downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ensemble. Averaged over our study region, the median shift in spring onset was 23 days earlier in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario with particularly large shifts in the Western US and the Great Plains. Spatial variation in phenology was due to the influence of short-term temperature changes around the time of spring onset versus season long accumulation of warm temperatures. False spring risk increased in the Great Plains and portions of the Midwest, but remained constant or decreased elsewhere. We conclude that global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult.
Modeling potential river management conflicts between frogs and salmonids

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Sarah J. Kupferberg; Margaret M. Lang; Scott McBain; Hart H. Welsh

2016-01-01

Management of regulated rivers for yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) and salmonids exemplifies potential conflicts among species adapted to different parts of the natural flow and temperature regimes. Yellow-legged frogs oviposit in rivers in spring and depend on declining flows and warming temperatures for egg and tadpole survival and growth,...
Temperature mediated moose survival in Northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lenarz, M.S.; Nelson, M.E.; Schrage, M.W.; Edwards, A.J.

2009-01-01

The earth is in the midst of a pronounced warming trend and temperatures in Minnesota, USA, as elsewhere, are projected to increase. Northern Minnesota represents the southern edge to the circumpolar distribution of moose (Alces alces), a species intolerant of heat. Moose increase their metabolic rate to regulate their core body temperature as temperatures rise. We hypothesized that moose survival rates would be a function of the frequency and magnitude that ambient temperatures exceeded the upper critical temperature of moose. We compared annual and seasonal moose survival in northeastern Minnesota between 2002 and 2008 with a temperature metric. We found that models based on January temperatures above the critical threshold were inversely correlated with subsequent survival and explained >78 of variability in spring, fall, and annual survival. Models based on late-spring temperatures also explained a high proportion of survival during the subsequent fall. A model based on warm-season temperatures was important in explaining survival during the subsequent winter. Our analyses suggest that temperatures may have a cumulative influence on survival. We expect that continuation or acceleration of current climate trends will result in decreased survival, a decrease in moose density, and ultimately, a retreat of moose northward from their current distribution.
El Nino winners and losers declared

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

Last spring human forecasters thought they saw signs of an imminent warming of the tropical Pacific, a classic El Nino, that could wreak havoc with weather around the globe. Researchers running computer models, on the other hand, saw a slight warming but not enough for an El Nino. The modelers were right. The season for El Ninos has ended and nothing happened. Since the models came online about 5 years ago, there have been two contests to predict El Ninos, which occur every 3 to 7 years, and the models have won both. The models are still experimental, but themore » general feeling is that they're indicating the right trends. The prospect of having reliable El Nino prediction models is good news beyond the small coterie of tropical Pacific specialists. Worldwide weather patterns are closely tied to El Nino cycles.« less
Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-03-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.
Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.
Three studies on ponderosa pine management on the Warm Springs Indian Reservation: stocking control in uneven-aged stands, forest products from fire-damage trees, and fuels reduction

Treesearch

John V. Arena

2005-01-01

Over 60,000 acres of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P. and C. Lawson) forest on the Warm Springs Indian Reservation (WSIR) in Oregon are managed using an uneven-age system. Three on-going studies on WSIR address current issues in the management of pine forests: determining levels of growing stock for uneven-age management, fire effects on wood...

Ground-water data for the Warm Springs Indian Reservation and contiguous areas north-central Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Donald B.

1996-01-01

This report presents well data that were collected and compiled during 1985-86 by the U.S. Geological Survey and used to determine the amount of ground water discharging to the Deschutes River on and near the Warm Springs Indian Reservation. The report contains well-construction data from 171 wells, information from drillers' logs for 66 wells, water-level data for 29 wells, and a map showing well locations.
Seasonal Variability May Affect Microbial Decomposers and Leaf Decomposition More Than Warming in Streams.

PubMed

Duarte, Sofia; Cássio, Fernanda; Ferreira, Verónica; Canhoto, Cristina; Pascoal, Cláudia

2016-08-01

Ongoing climate change is expected to affect the diversity and activity of aquatic microbes, which play a key role in plant litter decomposition in forest streams. We used a before-after control-impact (BACI) design to study the effects of warming on a forest stream reach. The stream reach was divided by a longitudinal barrier, and during 1 year (ambient year) both stream halves were at ambient temperature, while in the second year (warmed year) the temperature in one stream half was increased by ca. 3 °C above ambient temperature (experimental half). Fine-mesh bags containing oak (Quercus robur L.) leaves were immersed in both stream halves for up to 60 days in spring and autumn of the ambient and warmed years. We assessed leaf-associated microbial diversity by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and identification of fungal conidial morphotypes and microbial activity by quantifying leaf mass loss and productivity of fungi and bacteria. In the ambient year, no differences were found in leaf decomposition rates and microbial productivities either between seasons or stream halves. In the warmed year, phosphorus concentration in the stream water, leaf decomposition rates, and productivity of bacteria were higher in spring than in autumn. They did not differ between stream halves, except for leaf decomposition, which was higher in the experimental half in spring. Fungal and bacterial communities differed between seasons in both years. Seasonal changes in stream water variables had a greater impact on the activity and diversity of microbial decomposers than a warming regime simulating a predicted global warming scenario.
Development of a CE-QUAL-W2 temperature model for Crystal Springs Lake, Portland, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Stonewall, Adam J.

2016-05-19

Model simulations (scenarios) were run with lower water surface elevations in Crystal Springs Lake and increased shading to the lake to assess the relative effect the lake and pond characteristics have on water temperature. The Golf Pond was unaltered in all scenarios. The models estimated that lower lake elevations would result in cooler water downstream of the Golf Pond and shorter residence times in the lake. Increased shading to the lake would also provide substantial cooling. Most management scenarios resulted in a decrease in 7-day average of daily maximum values by about 2.0– 4.7 °F (1.1 –2.6 °C) for outflow from Crystal Springs Lake during the period of interest. Outflows from the Golf Pond showed a net temperature reduction of 0.5–2.7 °F (0.3–1.5 °C) compared to measured values in 2014 because of solar heating and downstream warming in the Golf Pond resulting from mixing with inflow from Reed Lake.
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.
Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Sato, Makiko

1992-01-01

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515
Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades

Treesearch

Christina Tague; Gordon Grant; Mike Farrell; Janet Choate; Anne Jefferson

2008-01-01

Recent studies predict that projected climate change will lead to significant reductions in summer streamflow in the mountainous regions of the Western United States. Hydrologic modeling directed at quantifying these potential changes has focused on the magnitude and timing of spring snowmelt as the key control on the spatial temporal pattern of summer streamflow. We...
Special Office Report for Warm Springs Dam and Lake Sonoma. Sonoma County, California. Section 7. Consultation on Endangered Species.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-01

REPORT, SECTION 7 CONSULTATION, FN WARM SPRINGS DAM AND LAKE SONOMA, SONOMA COUNTY , F P IN CALIFORNIA 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHOR(s) 8...regarding the American Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrInus anatum) and its critical habitat (about 13,300 acres in Sonoma County , California) in the 29 May...federally owned historic resources. Actions to be undertaken will not impair historic properties. e. Sonoma County General Plan. This County Plan is a
Northern Galápagos Corals Reveal Twentieth Century Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Gloria; Cole, Julia E.; Thompson, Diane M.; Tudhope, Alexander W.

2018-02-01

Models and observations disagree regarding sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the eastern tropical Pacific. We present a new Sr/Ca-SST record that spans 1940-2010 from two Wolf Island corals (northern Galápagos). Trend analysis of the Wolf record shows significant warming on multiple timescales, which is also present in several other records and gridded instrumental products. Together, these data sets suggest that most of the eastern tropical Pacific has warmed over the twentieth century. In contrast, recent decades have been characterized by warming during boreal spring and summer (especially north of the equator), and subtropical cooling during boreal fall and winter (especially south of the equator). These SST trends are consistent with the effects of radiative forcing, mitigated by cooling due to wind forcing during boreal winter, as well as intensified upwelling and a strengthened Equatorial Undercurrent.
Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monahan, William B.; Rosemartin, Alyssa; Gerst, Katharine L.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Gross, John E.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2016-01-01

Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10–30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901–2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing “extreme” early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.
Effect of temperature on rates of ammonium uptake and nitrification in the western coastal Arctic during winter, spring, and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, Steven E.; Connelly, Tara L.; Sipler, Rachel E.; Yager, Patricia L.; Bronk, Deborah A.

2014-12-01

Biogeochemical rate processes in the Arctic are not currently well constrained, and there is very limited information on how rates may change as the region warms. Here we present data on the sensitivity of ammonium (NH4+) uptake and nitrification rates to short-term warming. Samples were collected from the Chukchi Sea off the coast of Barrow, Alaska, during winter, spring, and summer and incubated for 24 h in the dark with additions of 15NH4+ at -1.5, 6, 13, and 20°C. Rates of NH4+ uptake and nitrification were measured in conjunction with bacterial production. In all seasons, NH4+ uptake rates were highest at temperatures similar to current summertime conditions but dropped off with increased warming, indicative of psychrophilic (i.e., cold-loving) microbial communities. In contrast, nitrification rates were less sensitive to temperature and were higher in winter and spring compared to summer. These findings suggest that as the Arctic coastal ecosystem continues to warm, NH4+ assimilation may become increasingly important, relative to nitrification, although the magnitude of NH4+ assimilation would be still be lower than nitrification.
Preliminary Evidence for the Amplification of Global Warming in Shallow, Intertidal Estuarine Waters

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. We hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<2m), nearshore portions ...
How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.
The plumbing system of the Pagosa thermal Springs, Colorado: Application of geologically constrained geophysical inversion and data fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revil, A.; Cuttler, S.; Karaoulis, M.; Zhou, J.; Raynolds, B.; Batzle, M.

2015-06-01

Fault and fracture networks usually provide the plumbing for movement of hydrothermal fluids in geothermal fields. The Big Springs of Pagosa Springs in Colorado is known as the deepest geothermal hot springs in the world. However, little is known about the plumbing system of this hot spring, especially regarding the position of the reservoir (if any) or the position of the major tectonic faults controlling the flow of the thermal water in this area. The Mancos shale, a Cretaceous shale, dominates many of the surface expressions around the springs and impede an easy recognition of the fault network. We use three geophysical methods (DC resistivity, self-potential, and seismic) to image the faults in this area, most of which are not recognized in the geologic fault map of the region. Results from these surveys indicate that the hot Springs (the Big Spring and a warm spring located 1.8 km further south) are located at the intersection of the Victoire Fault, a major normal crustal fault, and two north-northeast trending faults (Fault A and B). Self-potential and DC resistivity tomographies can be combined and a set of joint attributes defined to determine the localization of the flow of hot water associated with the Eight Miles Mesa Fault, a second major tectonic feature responsible for the occurrence of warm springs further West and South from the Big Springs of Pagosa Springs.
76 FR 65208 - Indian Gaming

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-20

... III Gaming on the Warm Springs Reservation (``2005 Compact'' or ``Kah-Nee-Ta compact''), approved on... Reservation from the Tribe's Kah-Nee-Ta Resort facility to a temporary facility on U.S. Highway 26 in the Warm...
Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe.

PubMed

Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-Guo; Ma, Qianqian; Hänninen, Heikki; Rossi, Sergio; Piao, Shilong; Bergeron, Yves

2018-04-26

Under current global warming, high-elevation regions are expected to experience faster warming than low-elevation regions. However, due to the lack of studies based on long-term large-scale data, the relationship between tree spring phenology and the elevation-dependent warming is unclear. Using 652k records of leaf unfolding of five temperate tree species monitored during 1951-2013 in situ in Europe, we discovered a nonlinear trend in the altitudinal sensitivity (S A , shifted days per 100 m in altitude) in spring phenology. A delayed leaf unfolding (2.7 ± 0.6 days per decade) was observed at high elevations possibly due to decreased spring forcing between 1951 and 1980. The delayed leaf unfolding at high-elevation regions was companied by a simultaneous advancing of leaf unfolding at low elevations. These divergent trends contributed to a significant increase in the S A (0.36 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade) during 1951-1980. Since 1980, the S A started to decline with a rate of -0.32 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade, possibly due to reduced chilling at low elevations and improved efficiency of spring forcing in advancing the leaf unfolding at high elevations, the latter being caused by increased chilling. Our results suggest that due to both different temperature changes at the different altitudes, and the different tree responses to these changes, the tree phenology has shifted at different rates leading to a more uniform phenology at different altitudes during recent decades. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide during the transition from winter carbon source to spring carbon sink in a temperate urban lawn.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoping; Wang, Xiaoke; Tong, Lei; Zhang, Hongxing; Lu, Fei; Zheng, Feixiang; Hou, Peiqiang; Song, Wenzhi; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-01-01

The significant warming in urban environment caused by the combined effects of global warming and heat island has stimulated widely development of urban vegetations. However, it is less known of the climate feedback of urban lawn in warmed environment. Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide during the transition period from winter to spring was investigated in a temperate urban lawn in Beijing, China. The NEE (negative for uptake) under soil warming treatment (temperature was about 5 degrees C higher than the ambient treatment as a control) was -0.71 micromol/(m2 x sec), the ecosytem was a CO2 sink under soil warming treatment, the lawn ecosystem under the control was a CO2 source (0.13 micromol/(m2 x sec)), indicating that the lawn ecosystem would provide a negative feedback to global warming. There was no significant effect of soil warming on nocturnal NEE (i.e., ecosystem respiration), although the soil temperature sensitivity (Q10) of ecosystem respiration under soil warming treatment was 3.86, much lower than that in the control (7.03). The CO2 uptake was significantly increased by soil warming treatment that was attributed to about 100% increase of alpha (apparent quantum yield) and Amax (maximum rate of photosynthesis). Our results indicated that the response of photosynthesis in urban lawn is much more sensitive to global warming than respiration in the transition period.
Relative abundance and lengths of Kendall Warm Springs dace captured from different habitats in a specially designed trap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gryska, A.D.; Hubert, W.A.; Gerow, K.G.

1998-01-01

A trap was designed to capture endangered Kendall Warm Springs dace Rhinichthys osculus thermalis (a subspecies of speckled dace Rhinichthys osculus) without being destructive to the habitat of the fish in Kendall Warm Springs Creek, Wyoming. Four experiments were conducted to determine differences in catch per unit effort (CPUE) and length frequencies of fish among differing habitat types. The CPUE was highest in channel habitats with current, and one experiment indicated that it was particularly high at vertical interfaces with vegetation. Longer fish were captured in channel habitats away from vegetation than in vegetated areas. The CPUE was significantly greater during the day than at night during one experiment, but no significant differences were observed among the other three experiments. The traps were easy and inexpensive to construct, could be used in a variety of stream habitats, and may have applications in other small streams for sampling small, benthic fishes.
The false spring of 2012, earliest in North American record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, T.R.; Henebry, G.M.; de Beurs, K. M.; Schwartz, M.D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Moore, David

2013-01-01

Phenology - the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, especially their timing and relationships with weather and climate - is becoming an essential tool for documenting, communicating, and anticipating the consequences of climate variability and change. For example, March 2012 broke numerous records for warm temperatures and early flowering in the United States [Karl et al., 2012; Elwood et al., 2013]. Many regions experienced a “false spring,” a period of weather in late winter or early spring sufficiently mild and long to bring vegetation out of dormancy prematurely, rendering it vulnerable to late frost and drought.As global climate warms, increasingly warmer springs may combine with the random climatological occurrence of advective freezes, which result from cold air moving from one region to another, to dramatically increase the future risk of false springs, with profound ecological and economic consequences [e.g., Gu et al., 2008; Marino et al., 2011; Augspurger, 2013]. For example, in the false spring of 2012, an event embedded in long-term trends toward earlier spring [e.g., Schwartz et al., 2006], the frost damage to fruit trees totaled half a billion dollars in Michigan alone, prompting the federal government to declare the state a disaster area [Knudson, 2012].
Copepod community succession during warm season in Lagoon Notoro-ko, northeastern Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Yoshizumi; Ichikawa, Hideaki; Kitamura, Mitsuaki; Nishino, Yasuto; Taniguchi, Akira

2015-06-01

Lagoon Notoro-ko, located on the northeastern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and connected to the Okhotsk Sea by a human-made channel, is strongly influenced by local hydrography, as water masses in the lagoon are seasonally influenced by the Soya Warm Current and the East Sakhalin Current. We here report on the succession of copepod communities during the warm season in relation to water mass exchange. Copepods were categorized into four seasonal communities (spring/early-summer, mid-summer, late-summer/fall, and early-winter) via a cluster analysis based on Bray-Curtis similarities. Spring/early-summer and early-winter communities were characterized by the temperate-boreal calanoid Pseudocalanus newmani, comprising 34.9%-77.6% of the total abundance of copepods during times of low temperature/salinity, as influenced by the prevailing East Sakhalin Current. Late-summer/fall communities were characterized by the neritic warm-water calanoid Paracalanus parvus s.l., comprising 63.9%-96.3% of the total abundance, as influenced by the Soya Warm Current. Mid-summer communities comprised approximately equal abundances of P. parvus, Eurytemora herdmani, Scolecithricella minor, and Centropages abdominalis (12.8%-28.2%); this community is transitional between those of the spring/early-summer and late-summer/fall. Copepod community succession in Lagoon Notoro-ko can be largely explained by seasonal changes in water masses.

Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

PubMed Central

Cayan, Daniel R.; Das, Tapash; Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunov, Alexander

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge. PMID:21149687
Future dryness in the Southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunova, A.

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.
Testing for genetic differences in survival and growth between hatchery and wild Chinook salmon from Warm Springs River, Oregon (Study sites: Warm Springs Hatchery and Little White Salmon River; Stocks: Warm Springs hatchery and Warm Springs River wild; Year classes: 1992 and 1996): Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Leonetti,; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Hayes, Michael C.

2012-01-01

The program at Warm Springs National Fish Hatchery in north - central Oregon was initiated with spring Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Warm Springs River. Managers included wild fish in the broodstock most years and avoided artificial selection to minimize genetic divergence from the wild founder population. We tested for genetic differences in survival and growth between the hatchery and wild populations to ascertain whether this goal has been achieved. Progeny of hatchery x hatchery (HH), hatchery female x wild male (HW), and wild x wild (WW) crosses were genetically marked at the sSOD - 1* allozyme locus and released together as unfed fry in hatchery ponds in 1992 and 1996 and in the Little White Salmon River, in south - central Washington, in 1996. Fish were evaluated to returning adult at the hatchery and over their freshwater residence of 16 months in the stream. The three crosses differed on several measures including survival to outmigration in the stream (WW>HH>HW) and juvenile growth in the hatchery (1992 year - class; WW>HW>HH); however, results may have been confounded. The genetic marks were found to differentially effect survival in a companion study (HH mark favored over WW mark; HW mark intermediate). Furthermore, HW survival in the current study was neither intermediate, as would be expect ed from additive genetic effects, nor similar to that of HH fish as would be expected from maternal effects since HW and HH fish were maternal half - siblings. Finally, the unexpected performance of HW fish precludes ruling out maternal differences between hatchery and wild mothers as the cause of differences between HH and WW fish. The key finding that survival of HH fish in a stream was 0.91 that for WW fish, indicating a small loss of fitness for natural rearing in the hatchery population, is valid only if three conditions hold: (1) any selection on the genetic marks was in the same direction as in the companion study, (2) lower survival in the stream for HW than for HH fish resulted because some HW families were genetically atypical, not from problems w ith either pure type, and (3) lower survival for HH than for WW fish was not due to maternal effects. Although all three conditions had support, none of it was conclusive. This study provides only suggestions, not definitive answers for the primary quest ion of whether the hatchery population has diverged genetically from its wild founder population in fitness - related traits.
Eddy-driven stratification initiates North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms.

PubMed

Mahadevan, Amala; D'Asaro, Eric; Lee, Craig; Perry, Mary Jane

2012-07-06

Springtime phytoplankton blooms photosynthetically fix carbon and export it from the surface ocean at globally important rates. These blooms are triggered by increased light exposure of the phytoplankton due to both seasonal light increase and the development of a near-surface vertical density gradient (stratification) that inhibits vertical mixing of the phytoplankton. Classically and in current climate models, that stratification is ascribed to a springtime warming of the sea surface. Here, using observations from the subpolar North Atlantic and a three-dimensional biophysical model, we show that the initial stratification and resulting bloom are instead caused by eddy-driven slumping of the basin-scale north-south density gradient, resulting in a patchy bloom beginning 20 to 30 days earlier than would occur by warming.
Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been widely used for assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively.
Do summer temperatures trigger spring maturation in pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clemens, B.J.; Van De Wetering, S.; Kaufman, J.; Holt, R.A.; Schreck, C.B.

2009-01-01

Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus, return to streams and use somatic energy to fuel maturation. Body size decreases, the lamprey mature, spawn, and then die. We predicted that warm, summer temperatures (>20 ??C) would accentuate shrinkage in body size, and expedite sexual maturation and subsequent death. We compared fish reared in the laboratory at diel fluctuating temperatures of 20-24 ??C (mean = 21.8 ??C) with fish reared at cooler temperatures (13.6 ??C). The results confirmed our predictions. Lamprey from the warm water group showed significantly greater proportional decreases in body weight following the summer temperature treatments than fish from the cool water group. A greater proportion of warm water fish sexually matured (100%) and died (97%) the following spring than cool water fish (53% sexually mature, 61% died). Females tended to mature and die earlier than males, most obviously in the warm water group. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xiao, Ziniu

2013-10-01

This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV inmore » 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.« less
The future of spring bud burst: looking at the possibilities

Treesearch

Noreen Parks; Connie Harrington; Brad St. Clair; Peter. Gould

2010-01-01

The timing of spring budburst in woody plants impacts not only the subsequent seasonal growth for individual trees, but also their associated biological community. As winter and spring temperatures have warmed under the changing climate, in many species budburst has been happening earlier in the year. Understanding the long-term effects of this shift and adapting...
Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; McCabe, Gregory J.

2013-01-01

We used a first-order, monthly snow model and observations to disentangle seasonal influences on 20th century,regional snowpack anomalies in the Rocky Mountains of western North America, where interannual variations in cool-season (November–March) temperatures are broadly synchronous, but precipitation is typically antiphased north to south and uncorrelated with temperature. Over the previous eight centuries, regional snowpack variability exhibits strong, decadally persistent north-south (N-S) antiphasing of snowpack anomalies. Contrary to the normal regional antiphasing, two intervals of spatially synchronized snow deficits were identified. Snow deficits shown during the 1930s were synchronized north-south by low cool-season precipitation, with spring warming (February–March) since the 1980s driving the majority of the recent synchronous snow declines, especially across the low to middle elevations. Spring warming strongly influenced low snowpacks in the north after 1958, but not in the south until after 1980. The post-1980, synchronous snow decline reduced snow cover at low to middle elevations by ~20% and partly explains earlier and reduced streamflow and both longer and more active fire seasons. Climatologies of Rocky Mountain snowpack are shown to be seasonally and regionally complex, with Pacific decadal variability positively reinforcing the anthropogenic warming trend.
NORTH ELEVATION OF GOLD HILL MILL, LOOKING SOUTH. AT LEFT ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

NORTH ELEVATION OF GOLD HILL MILL, LOOKING SOUTH. AT LEFT EDGE IS THE SINGLE CYLINDER HOT SHOT ENGINE THAT PROVIDED POWER FOR THE MILL. JUST IN FRONT OF IT IS AN ARRASTRA. AT CENTER IS THE BALL MILL AND SECONDARY ORE BIN. JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE BALL MILL IS A RAKE CLASSIFIER, AND TO THE RIGHT ARE THE CONCENTRATION TABLES. WARM SPRINGS CAMP IS IN THE DISTANCE. SEE CA-292-4 FOR IDENTICAL B&W NEGATIVE. - Gold Hill Mill, Warm Spring Canyon Road, Death Valley Junction, Inyo County, CA
NORTH ELEVATION OF GOLD HILL MILL, LOOKING SOUTH. AT LEFT ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

NORTH ELEVATION OF GOLD HILL MILL, LOOKING SOUTH. AT LEFT EDGE IS THE SINGLE CYLINDER HOT SHOT ENGINE THAT PROVIDED POWER FOR THE MILL. JUST IN FRONT OF IT IS AN ARRASTRA. AT CENTER IS THE BALL MILL AND SECONDARY ORE BIN. JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE BALL MILL IS A RAKE CLASSIFIER, AND TO THE RIGHT ARE THE CONCENTRATION TABLES. WARM SPRINGS CAMP IS IN THE DISTANCE. SEE CA-292-17 (CT) FOR IDENTICAL COLOR TRANSPARENCY. - Gold Hill Mill, Warm Spring Canyon Road, Death Valley Junction, Inyo County, CA
Overwintering temperature and body condition shift emergence dates of spring-emerging solitary bees.

PubMed

Schenk, Mariela; Mitesser, Oliver; Hovestadt, Thomas; Holzschuh, Andrea

2018-01-01

Solitary bees in seasonal environments must align their life-cycles with favorable environmental conditions and resources; the timing of their emergence is highly fitness relevant. In several bee species, overwintering temperature influences both emergence date and body weight at emergence. High variability in emergence dates among specimens overwintering at the same temperatures suggests that the timing of emergence also depends on individual body conditions. However, possible causes for this variability, such as individual differences in body size or weight, have been rarely studied. In a climate chamber experiment using two spring-emerging mason bees ( Osmia cornuta and O. bicornis ), we investigated the relationship between temperature, emergence date, body weight, and body size, the last of which is not affected by overwintering temperature. Our study showed that body weight declined during hibernation more strongly in warm than in cold overwintering temperatures. Although bees emerged earlier in warm than in cold overwintering temperatures, at the time of emergence, bees in warm overwintering temperatures had lower body weights than bees in cold overwintering temperatures (exception of male O. cornuta ). Among specimens that experienced the same overwintering temperatures, small and light bees emerged later than their larger and heavier conspecifics. Using a simple mechanistic model we demonstrated that spring-emerging solitary bees use a strategic approach and emerge at a date that is most promising for their individual fitness expectations. Our results suggest that warmer overwintering temperatures reduce bee fitness by causing a decrease in body weight at emergence. We showed furthermore that in order to adjust their emergence dates, bees use not only temperature but also their individual body condition as triggers. This may explain differing responses to climate warming within and among bee populations and may have consequences for bee-plant interactions as well as for the persistence of bee populations under climate change.
Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely sensed observations of the enhanced vegetation index. These findings could be used in forest managements for identifying vulnerable forests based on their habitat type and hydrological status.
Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.
Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet physically plausible statistical estimation procedures may help us better untangle some climate mysteries.
An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Rong; Schwartz, Mark D.; Donnelly, Alison; Liang, Liang

2016-03-01

It is important to accurately determine the response of spring and autumn phenology to climate change in forest ecosystems, as phenological variations affect carbon balance, forest productivity, and biodiversity. We observed phenology intensively throughout spring and autumn in a temperate deciduous woodlot at Milwaukee, WI, USA, during 2007-2012. Twenty-four phenophase levels in spring and eight in autumn were recorded for 106 trees, including white ash, basswood, white oak, boxelder, red oak, and hophornbeam. Our phenological progression models revealed that accumulated degree-days and day length explained 87.9-93.4 % of the variation in spring canopy development and 75.8-89.1 % of the variation in autumn senescence. In addition, the timing of community-level spring and autumn phenophases and the length of the growing season from 1871 to 2012 were reconstructed with the models developed. All simulated spring phenophases significantly advanced at a rate from 0.24 to 0.48 days/decade ( p ≤ 0.001) during the 1871-2012 period and from 1.58 to 2.00 days/decade ( p < 0.02) during the 1970-2012 period; two simulated autumn phenophases were significantly delayed at a rate of 0.37 (mid-leaf coloration) and 0.50 (full-leaf coloration) days/decade ( p < 0.01) during the 1970-2012 period. Consequently, the simulated growing season lengthened at a rate of 0.45 and 2.50 days/decade ( p < =0.001), respectively, during the two periods. Our results further showed the variability of responses to climate between early and late spring phenophases, as well as between leaf coloration and leaf fall, and suggested accelerating simulated ecosystem responses to climate warming over the last four decades in comparison to the past 142 years.
An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology.

PubMed

Yu, Rong; Schwartz, Mark D; Donnelly, Alison; Liang, Liang

2016-03-01

It is important to accurately determine the response of spring and autumn phenology to climate change in forest ecosystems, as phenological variations affect carbon balance, forest productivity, and biodiversity. We observed phenology intensively throughout spring and autumn in a temperate deciduous woodlot at Milwaukee, WI, USA, during 2007-2012. Twenty-four phenophase levels in spring and eight in autumn were recorded for 106 trees, including white ash, basswood, white oak, boxelder, red oak, and hophornbeam. Our phenological progression models revealed that accumulated degree-days and day length explained 87.9-93.4 % of the variation in spring canopy development and 75.8-89.1 % of the variation in autumn senescence. In addition, the timing of community-level spring and autumn phenophases and the length of the growing season from 1871 to 2012 were reconstructed with the models developed. All simulated spring phenophases significantly advanced at a rate from 0.24 to 0.48 days/decade (p ≤ 0.001) during the 1871-2012 period and from 1.58 to 2.00 days/decade (p < 0.02) during the 1970-2012 period; two simulated autumn phenophases were significantly delayed at a rate of 0.37 (mid-leaf coloration) and 0.50 (full-leaf coloration) days/decade (p < 0.01) during the 1970-2012 period. Consequently, the simulated growing season lengthened at a rate of 0.45 and 2.50 days/decade (p < =0.001), respectively, during the two periods. Our results further showed the variability of responses to climate between early and late spring phenophases, as well as between leaf coloration and leaf fall, and suggested accelerating simulated ecosystem responses to climate warming over the last four decades in comparison to the past 142 years.
Plant phenological synchrony increases under rapid within-spring warming.

PubMed

Wang, Cong; Tang, Yanhong; Chen, Jin

2016-05-05

Phenological synchrony influences many ecological processes. Recent climate change has altered the synchrony of phenology, but little is known about the underlying mechanisms. Here using in situ phenological records from Europe, we found that the standard deviation (SD, as a measure of synchrony) of first leafing day (FLD) and the SD of first flowering day (FFD) among local plants were significantly smaller in the years and/or in the regions with a more rapid within-spring warming speed (WWS, the linear slope of the daily mean temperature against the days during spring, in (o)C/day) with correlation coefficients of -0.75 and -0.48 for FLD and -0.55 and -0.23 for FFD. We further found that the SDs of temperature sensitivity of local plants were smaller under the rapid WWS conditions with correlation coefficients of -0.46 and -0.33 for FLD and FFD respectively. This study provides the first evidence that the within-season rate of change of the temperature but not the magnitude determines plant phenological synchrony. It implies that temporally, the asymmetric seasonal climatic warming may decrease the synchrony via increasing WWS, especially in arctic regions; spatially, plants in coastal and low latitude areas with low WWS would have more diverse spring phenological traits.
Water resources of the Warm Springs Indian Reservation, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robison, J.H.; Laenen, Antonius

1976-01-01

Water-resources data for the 1,000-square-mile Warm Springs Indian Reservation in north-central Oregon were obtained and evaluated. The area is bounded on the west by the crest of the Cascade Range and on the south and east by the Metolius and Deschutes Rivers. The mountainous western part is underlain by young volcanic rocks, and the plateaus and valleys of the eastern part are underlain by basalt, tuff, sand, and gravel of Tertiary and Quaternary ages. There are numerous springs, some developed for stock use, and about 50 domestic and community wells; yields are small, ranging from less than 1 to as much as 25 gallons per minute. Chemical quality of most ground water is suitable for stock or human consumption and for irrigation. Average flows of the Warm Springs River, Metolius River, and Deschutes River are 440, 1,400, and 4,040 cubic feet per second (cfs), respectively. Shitike Creek, which has an average flow of 108 cfs had a peak of 4,000 cfs in January 1974. Most streams have fewer than 100 milligrams per liter (mg/liter) of dissolved solids. Chemical and biological quality of the mountain lakes is also good; of 10 lakes studied, all had fewer than 50 mg/liter of dissolved solids and none had measurable fecal coliform bacteria. (Woodard-USGS)
Global warming leads to more uniform spring phenology across elevations.

PubMed

Vitasse, Yann; Signarbieux, Constant; Fu, Yongshuo H

2018-01-30

One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law." What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m -1 conforming to Hopkins' bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m -1 in 2016, i.e., -35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant-animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.

Comparative recruitment success of pine provenances (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra) under simulated climate change in the Swiss Rhone valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Sarah; Moser, Barbara; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Wohlgemuth, Thomas

2010-05-01

Low elevation Scots pine forests of European inner-alpine dry valleys may potentially disappear under continued climate warming, largely in response to increased warming and drought effects. In the upper Rhone valley, the driest region in Switzerland, increased Scots pine mortality in mature forest stands and sparse tree establishment after a large-scale forest fire already give evidence for ongoing climate change. Furthermore, vegetation models predict a decline of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens) even under a moderate temperature increase of 2-3°C. A decline of tree species in the region may lead to a transition from forest to a steppe-like vegetation. Such a change is of considerable concern for both biodiversity and natural hazard protection. Although changing climate conditions affect all life stages of a tree, its most vulnerable stage is recruitment. We tested P. sylvestris and P. nigra seedlings to simulated temperature increase and water stress, using seeds from the upper Rhone valley, Switzerland (CH), and from Peñyagolosa, Spain (ES). The experiment was located outdoors at the bottom of the Rhone Valley. Treatments consisted of factorial combinations of 3 precipitation regimes (‘wet spring-wet summer', ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer') and 3 soil heating levels (+0 °C, +2.5 °C, +5 °C). Automatically operated shelters intercepted natural rainfall and different precipitation regimes were simulated by manual irrigation. We found significantly lower germination rates under dry conditions compared to wet conditions, whereas soil temperature affected germination rates only for P. nigra and when elevated by 5°C. Contrastingly, an increase of soil temperatures by 2.5 °C already caused a substantial decrease of survival rates under both ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer' conditions. Precipitation regime was more important for survival than temperature increase. Seasonality of precipitation had distinct effects on the number of seedlings present after the first growing season. In the ‘wet spring-dry summer' treatment, a high germination rate overcompensated for low summer survival rates, resulting in higher seedling numbers at the end of the growing season in comparison to the ‘dry spring-dry summer' treatment. Biomass strongly depended on precipitation regime (‘wet spring-wet summer' > ‘dry spring-dry summer' > ‘wet spring-dry summer'), as well as having a strong provenance component with higher biomass recorded for Spanish P. sylvestris provenance than for the Swiss provenance under dry conditions. Our results imply that impacts of climate warming on tree recruitment will strongly depend on the way precipitation quantity and patterns change in the future, and early recruitment stages of provenances clearly differ in their ability to cope with drought.
Return of warm conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea: Phytoplankton - Fish.

PubMed

Duffy-Anderson, Janet T; Stabeno, Phyllis J; Siddon, Elizabeth C; Andrews, Alex G; Cooper, Daniel W; Eisner, Lisa B; Farley, Edward V; Harpold, Colleen E; Heintz, Ron A; Kimmel, David G; Sewall, Fletcher F; Spear, Adam H; Yasumishii, Ellen C

2017-01-01

In 2014, the Bering Sea shifted back to warmer ocean temperatures (+2 oC above average), bringing concern for the potential for a new warm stanza and broad biological and ecological cascading effects. In 2015 and 2016 dedicated surveys were executed to study the progression of ocean heating and ecosystem response. We describe ecosystem response to multiple, consecutive years of ocean warming and offer perspective on the broader impacts. Ecosystem changes observed include reduced spring phytoplankton biomass over the southeast Bering Sea shelf relative to the north, lower abundances of large-bodied crustacean zooplankton taxa, and degraded feeding and body condition of age-0 walleye pollock. This suggests poor ecosystem conditions for young pollock production and the risk of significant decline in the number of pollock available to the pollock fishery in 2-3 years. However, we also noted that high quality prey, large copepods and euphausiids, and lower temperatures in the north may have provided a refuge from poor conditions over the southern shelf, potentially buffering the impact of a sequential-year warm stanza on the Bering Sea pollock population. We offer the hypothesis that juvenile (age-0, age-1) pollock may buffer deleterious warm stanza effects by either utilizing high productivity waters associated with the strong, northerly Cold Pool, as a refuge from the warm, low production areas of the southern shelf, or by exploiting alternative prey over the southern shelf. We show that in 2015, the ocean waters influenced by spring sea ice (the Cold Pool) supported robust phytoplankton biomass (spring) comprised of centric diatom chains, a crustacean copepod community comprised of large-bodied taxa (spring, summer), and a large aggregation of midwater fishes, potentially young pollock. In this manner, the Cold Pool may have acted as a trophic refuge in that year. The few age-0 pollock occurring over the southeast shelf consumed high numbers of euphausiids which may have provided a high quality alternate prey. In 2016 a retracted Cold Pool precluded significant refuging in the north, though pollock foraging on available euphausiids over the southern shelf may have mitigated the effect of warm waters and reduced large availability of large copepods. This work presents the hypothesis that, in the short term, juvenile pollock can mitigate the drastic impacts of sustained warming. This short-term buffering, combined with recent observations (2017) of renewed sea ice presence over southeast Bering Sea shelf and a potential return to average or at least cooler ecosystem conditions, suggests that recent warm year stanza (2014-2016) effects to the pollock population and fishery may be mitigated.
Using a Multi-Method Approach to Examine Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, J.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Nyima, Y.; Galvin, K.; Boone, R.; Dorje, T.; Ojima, D. S.

2012-12-01

Pastoralists and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau are facing a suite of novel stresses. Temperatures are increasing several times more than the global average. The frequency and severity of severe snowstorms, which lead to critical losses of livestock, are also increasing. Pastoralists are also experiencing changes to their livelihood activities, including reduced mobility and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods that integrate results from a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing, and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events (snow disasters) within the context of changing natural resource management policies in China. The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika) that are being affected by current policy. We established the experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region. We are monitoring microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, ecosystem carbon fluxes and stable isotope signatures of select plant species. Through this experiment, we are investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it can cross critical thresholds, and how resilient this system may be to predicted future climate and land use changes. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climate and ecological change and their drivers and are also conducting interviews on vulnerability to snow disasters across a three site, 300-500mm precipitation gradient. We are using remote sensing to identify biophysical landscape change over time. To integrate our ecological and social findings, we are coupling the Savanna ecosystem model to the DECUMA agent-based pastoral household model. Our results to date from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant plant species and the primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to warming. Moreover, several lines of evidence suggest that warming is causing delayed spring phenology, with important ecosystem and livelihood implications. Herders are observing climatic and ecological changes, knowledge which is important for adaptation, but people whose livelihoods are most directly derived from the rangelands, those situated at higher elevations, and those who are more mobile across the landscape are most attuned to these changes. These results suggest that rangeland degradation and delayed spring phenology are occurring, and that climate warming may be responsible for these changes. While additional snow may improve ecological conditions, the warming-induced degradation may make the social-ecological system more vulnerable to large snowstorm events. Our findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should address the effects of both climate warming and the changing nature of extreme weather events and should also encourage land use policies that will maintain these systems under change. Moreover, policies that encourage mobility and rangeland-based livelihoods will enhance adaptation to climate change.
Factors driving mercury variability in the Arctic atmosphere and ocean over the past 30 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Jenny A.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Soerensen, Anne L.; Amos, Helen M.; Corbitt, Elizabeth S.; Streets, David G.; Wang, Qiaoqiao; Yantosca, Robert M.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

2013-12-01

observations at Arctic sites (Alert and Zeppelin) show large interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric mercury (Hg), implying a strong sensitivity of Hg to environmental factors and potentially to climate change. We use the GEOS-Chem global biogeochemical Hg model to interpret these observations and identify the principal drivers of spring and summer IAV in the Arctic atmosphere and surface ocean from 1979-2008. The model has moderate skill in simulating the observed atmospheric IAV at the two sites (r 0.4) and successfully reproduces a long-term shift at Alert in the timing of the spring minimum from May to April (r = 0.7). Principal component analysis indicates that much of the IAV in the model can be explained by a single climate mode with high temperatures, low sea ice fraction, low cloudiness, and shallow boundary layer. This mode drives decreased bromine-driven deposition in spring and increased ocean evasion in summer. In the Arctic surface ocean, we find that the IAV for modeled total Hg is dominated by the meltwater flux of Hg previously deposited to sea ice, which is largest in years with high solar radiation (clear skies) and cold spring air temperature. Climate change in the Arctic is projected to result in increased cloudiness and strong warming in spring, which may thus lead to decreased Hg inputs to the Arctic Ocean. The effect of climate change on Hg discharges from Arctic rivers remains a major source of uncertainty.
Impacts of seasonal air and soil temperatures on photosynthesis in Scots pine trees.

PubMed

Strand, Martin; Lundmark, Tomas; Söderbergh, Ingrid; Mellander, Per-Erik

2002-08-01

Seasonal courses of light-saturated rate of net photosynthesis (A360) and stomatal conductance (gs) were examined in detached 1-year-old needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from early April to mid-November. To evaluate the effects of soil frost and low soil temperatures on gas exchange, the extent and duration of soil frost, as well as the onset of soil warming, were manipulated in the field. During spring, early summer and autumn, the patterns of A360 and gs in needles from the control and warm-soil plots were generally strongly related to daily mean air temperatures and the frequency of severe frost. The warm-soil treatment had little effect on gas exchange, although mean soil temperature in the warm-soil plot was 3.8 degrees C higher than in the control plot during spring and summer, indicating that A360 and gs in needles from control trees were not limited by low soil temperature alone. In contrast, prolonged exposure to soil temperatures slightly above 0 degrees C severely restricted recovery of A360 and especially gs in needles from the cold-soil treatment during spring and early summer; however, full recovery of both A360 and gs occurred in late summer. We conclude that inhibition of A360 by low soil temperatures is related to both stomatal closure and effects on the biochemistry of photosynthesis, the relative importance of which appeared to vary during spring and early summer. During the autumn, soil temperatures as low as 8 degrees C did not affect either A360 or gs.
Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

2010-05-01

Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.
Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the number of melting days over snow and sea ice (and resultant increases in snow-free and ice-free duration), which are similar in magnitude to the change from pre-industrial conditions to present day. Continued warming to 2°C further intensifies the cryospheric response consistent with amplified Arctic warming relative to the global average trend.
Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2018-06-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.
78 FR 34090 - Lois Von Morganroth; Shiloh Warm Springs Ranch, LLC; Notice of Application for Transfer of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-06

... Springs Ranch, LLC (transferee) filed an application for the transfer of license for the L & M Angus Ranch..., Idaho. Applicants seek Commission approval to transfer the license for the L & M Angus Ranch Project...
NOy production, ozone loss and changes in net radiative heating due to energetic particle precipitation in 2002-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinnhuber, Miriam; Berger, Uwe; Funke, Bernd; Nieder, Holger; Reddmann, Thomas; Stiller, Gabriele; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Maik Wissing, Jan

2018-01-01

We analyze the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the stratospheric nitrogen budget, ozone abundances and net radiative heating using results from three global chemistry-climate models considering solar protons and geomagnetic forcing due to auroral or radiation belt electrons. Two of the models cover the atmosphere up to the lower thermosphere, the source region of auroral NO production. Geomagnetic forcing in these models is included by prescribed ionization rates. One model reaches up to about 80 km, and geomagnetic forcing is included by applying an upper boundary condition of auroral NO mixing ratios parameterized as a function of geomagnetic activity. Despite the differences in the implementation of the particle effect, the resulting modeled NOy in the upper mesosphere agrees well between all three models, demonstrating that geomagnetic forcing is represented in a consistent way either by prescribing ionization rates or by prescribing NOy at the model top.Compared with observations of stratospheric and mesospheric NOy from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument for the years 2002-2010, the model simulations reproduce the spatial pattern and temporal evolution well. However, after strong sudden stratospheric warmings, particle-induced NOy is underestimated by both high-top models, and after the solar proton event in October 2003, NOy is overestimated by all three models. Model results indicate that the large solar proton event in October 2003 contributed about 1-2 Gmol (109 mol) NOy per hemisphere to the stratospheric NOy budget, while downwelling of auroral NOx from the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere contributes up to 4 Gmol NOy. Accumulation over time leads to a constant particle-induced background of about 0.5-1 Gmol per hemisphere during solar minimum, and up to 2 Gmol per hemisphere during solar maximum. Related negative anomalies of ozone are predicted by the models in nearly every polar winter, ranging from 10-50 % during solar maximum to 2-10 % during solar minimum. Ozone loss continues throughout polar summer after strong solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere and after large sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere. During mid-winter, the ozone loss causes a reduction of the infrared radiative cooling, i.e., a positive change of the net radiative heating (effective warming), in agreement with analyses of geomagnetic forcing in stratospheric temperatures which show a warming in the late winter upper stratosphere. In late winter and spring, the sign of the net radiative heating change turns to negative (effective cooling). This spring-time cooling lasts well into summer and continues until the following autumn after large solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere, and after sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere.
Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

PubMed Central

Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

2016-01-01

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883
Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes.

PubMed

Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

2016-04-14

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime.
Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong; ...

2017-07-10

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less
Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

PubMed

Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T

2009-01-22

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.
Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less
West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1999 spring transition

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ruoying; Weisberg, Robert H.

2002-01-01

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a spring transition as the net surface heat flux changes from cooling to warming. Using in situ data and a numerical circulation model we investigate the circulation and temperature budget on the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) for the spring transition of 1999. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind and heat flux fields and by river inflows. Based on agreements between the modeled and observed fields we use the model to draw inferences on how the surface momentum and heat fluxes affect the seasonal and synoptic scale variability. We account for a strong southeastward current at mid-shelf by the baroclinic response to combined wind and buoyancy forcing, and we show how this local forcing leads to annually occurring cold and low salinity tongues. Through term-by-term analyses of the temperature budget we describe the WFS temperature evolution in spring. Heat flux largely controls the seasonal transition, whereas ocean circulation largely controls the synoptic scale variability. These two processes, however, are closely linked. Bottom topography and coastline geometry are important in generating regions of convergence and divergence. Rivers contribute to the local hydrography and are important ecologically. Along with upwelling, river inflows facilitate frontal aggregation of nutrients and the spring formation of a high concentration chlorophyll plume near the shelf break (the so-called ‘Green River’) coinciding with the cold, low salinity tongues. These features originate by local, shelf-wide forcing; the Loop Current is not an essential ingredient.
Leopold Fellows meet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Dennis L.

Communicating the results of environmental science research to nonscientists was the focus of a week-long meeting of fellows of the Aldo Leopold Leadership Program (ALLP) in June. Participating were 20 mid-career university facultymembers, the first group of ALLP fellows to be selected.Discussions were held on the role of scientists in society, techniques for effective leadership, improving communications skills, and working productively with news media. The training program considers both print and broadcast media as well as other outreach vehicles. The meeting was held at Kah Nee Ta Resort on the Warm Springs Indian Reservation, Warm Springs, Oregon, June 15-21, 1999.
Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).
The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickinson, Robert E.; Oleson, Keith; Bonan, Gordon

2006-01-01

Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on themore » simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack that is very large compared to that observed with correspondingly excessive spring runoff. A large cold anomaly over the Sahara Desert and Sahel also appears to be a consequence of a large anomaly in downward longwave radiation; low column water vapor appears to be most responsible. The modeled precipitation over the Amazon basin is low compared to that observed, the soil becomes too dry, and the temperature is too warm during the dry season.« less
Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Alters Vegetation Phenology in a Boreal Spruce Bog: Initial Results from the SPRUCE Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, A. D.

2016-12-01

Phenology is one of the most robust indicators of the biological impacts of global change. However, the response of phenology to future environmental conditions still remains highly uncertain because of the challenges associated with conducting realistic manipulative experiments. At the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change) experiment in the north-central United States, experimental temperature (0 to +9°C above ambient) and CO2 (ambient and elevated) treatments are being applied to mature, and intact, Picea mariana-Sphagnum spp. bog communities in their native habitat through the use of ten large (approximately 12 m wide, 10 m high) open-topped enclosures. We are tracking vegetation green-up and senescence in these chambers using repeat digital photography. Within each chamber, images are recorded every 30 minutes and uploaded to PhenoCam (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu), where processed to yield quantitative measures of canopy color. These data are complemented by on-the-ground phenological data collected by human observers. Air warming treatments at SPRUCE began in August 2015. We observed a delay in senescence during autumn 2015 (2-5 days per degree of warming) and an advance in onset during spring 2016 (1-4 days per degree of warming). These patterns are robust across species and methods of phenological observation (i.e. camera-based vs. human observer). And, our results show very little evidence for photoperiod acting as a constraint on the response to warming. Early spring onset and consequent loss of frost hardiness in the warmest chambers proved disadvantageous when a brief period of extreme cold (to -12°C in the control chambers, to -3°C in the +9°C chambers) followed a month of generally mild weather. Foliage mortality for both Larix and Picea was immediate and severe, although both species subsequently re-flushed. These results give support for the hypothesis that warming may enhance the likelihood of spring frost damage. The SPRUCE experiment will run through 2025. We anticipate that different results may be obtained for autumn in future years, if early spring onset enhances evapotranspiration to a degree sufficient to cause drought conditions by late summer.

NOVA Spring 2000 Teacher's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colombo, Luann; Gregoire, Tanya; Ransick, Kristina; Sammons, Fran Lyons; Sammons, James

This teacher's guide complements six programs that aired on the Public Broadcasting System (PBS) in the spring of 2000. Programs include: (1) "Lost on Everest"; (2) "Lost Tribes of Israel"; (3) "Crocodiles"; (4) "Lost at Sea: The Search for Longitude"; (5) "Global Warming"; and (6) "Secrets of…
Assessing the contributions of East African and West Pacific warming to the 2014 boreal spring East African drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Hoell, Andrew; Livneh, Ben

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic warming contributed to the 2014 East African drought by increasing East African and west Pacific temperatures, and increasing the gradient between standardized western and central Pacific SST causing reduced rainfall, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture.
Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.
Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Salk, Carl F; Hoffmann, William A; Dunn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6-5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy. Warming advanced budburst of six deciduous woody species by 5-15 days and delayed leaf coloring by 18-21 days, resulting in an extension of the growing season by as much as 20-29 days. Spring temperature accumulation was strongly correlated with budburst date, but temperature alone cannot explain the diverse budburst responses observed among plant functional types. Ring-porous trees showed a consistent temperature response pattern across years, suggesting these species are sensitive to photoperiod. Conversely, diffuse-porous species responded differently between years, suggesting winter chilling may be more important in regulating budburst. Budburst of the ring-porous Quercus alba responded nonlinearly to warming, suggesting evolutionary constraints may limit changes in phenology, and therefore productivity, in the future. Warming caused a divergence in flowering times among species in the forest community, resulting in a longer flowering season by 10-16 days. Temperature was a good predictor of flowering for only four of the seven species studied here. Observations of interannual temperature variability overpredicted flowering responses in spring-blooming species, relative to our warming experiment, and did not consistently predict even the direction of flowering shifts. Experiments that push temperatures beyond historic variation are indispensable for improving predictions of future changes in phenology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant ( P<0.01 and P<0.001) advance in spring phenology that was driven by rising spring temperature ( P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly ( P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.
Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant (P<0.01 and P<0.001) advance in spring phenology that was driven by rising spring temperature (P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly (P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.
The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, In-Sun; Frith, Stacey M.

2011-01-01

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.
Temperature inverted haloclines provide winter warm-water refugia for manatees in southwest Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Swain, Eric D.; Doyle, Terry J.; Slone, Daniel H.; Decker, Jeremy D.; Soderqvist, Lars E.

2010-01-01

Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) overwintering in the Ten Thousand Islands and western Everglades have no access to power plants or major artesian springs that provide warm-water refugia in other parts of Florida. Instead, hundreds of manatees aggregate at artificial canals, basins, and natural deep water sites that act as passive thermal refugia (PTR). Monitoring at two canal sites revealed temperature inverted haloclines, which provided warm salty bottom layers that generally remained above temperatures considered adverse for manatees. At the largest PTR, the warmer bottom layer disappeared unless significant salt stratification was maintained by upstream freshwater inflow over a persistent tidal wedge. A detailed three-dimensional hydrology model showed that salinity stratification inhibited vertical convection induced by atmospheric cooling. Management or creation of temperature inverted haloclines may be a feasible and desirable option for resource managers to provide passive thermal refugia for manatees and other temperature sensitive aquatic species.
Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts.

PubMed

Massot, Manuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Fédérici, Pierre; Clobert, Jean

2017-09-01

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within-population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13-year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Discovery Central

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Jaimee

2005-01-01

Spring is an exciting time in any kindergarten classroom. The children are communicating better, and they have begun working more independently. Their critical-thinking skills are growing each day. Last year, as the warm days of spring teased our senses, a plant unit seemed especially enticing, so the author created four interactive, plant-themed…
77 FR 76065 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Revised Recovery Plan for Kendall Warm...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-26

..., exotic species, grazing, hydrologic changes, invasive plants, pollution, and energy resource exploration... revised recovery plan for the Kendall Warm Springs dace (Rhinichthys osculus thermalis). This species is federally listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (ESA). The Service...
Return of warm conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea: Phytoplankton - Fish

PubMed Central

Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Siddon, Elizabeth C.; Andrews, Alex G.; Cooper, Daniel W.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Farley, Edward V.; Harpold, Colleen E.; Heintz, Ron A.; Kimmel, David G.; Sewall, Fletcher F.; Spear, Adam H.; Yasumishii, Ellen C.

2017-01-01

In 2014, the Bering Sea shifted back to warmer ocean temperatures (+2 oC above average), bringing concern for the potential for a new warm stanza and broad biological and ecological cascading effects. In 2015 and 2016 dedicated surveys were executed to study the progression of ocean heating and ecosystem response. We describe ecosystem response to multiple, consecutive years of ocean warming and offer perspective on the broader impacts. Ecosystem changes observed include reduced spring phytoplankton biomass over the southeast Bering Sea shelf relative to the north, lower abundances of large-bodied crustacean zooplankton taxa, and degraded feeding and body condition of age-0 walleye pollock. This suggests poor ecosystem conditions for young pollock production and the risk of significant decline in the number of pollock available to the pollock fishery in 2–3 years. However, we also noted that high quality prey, large copepods and euphausiids, and lower temperatures in the north may have provided a refuge from poor conditions over the southern shelf, potentially buffering the impact of a sequential-year warm stanza on the Bering Sea pollock population. We offer the hypothesis that juvenile (age-0, age-1) pollock may buffer deleterious warm stanza effects by either utilizing high productivity waters associated with the strong, northerly Cold Pool, as a refuge from the warm, low production areas of the southern shelf, or by exploiting alternative prey over the southern shelf. We show that in 2015, the ocean waters influenced by spring sea ice (the Cold Pool) supported robust phytoplankton biomass (spring) comprised of centric diatom chains, a crustacean copepod community comprised of large-bodied taxa (spring, summer), and a large aggregation of midwater fishes, potentially young pollock. In this manner, the Cold Pool may have acted as a trophic refuge in that year. The few age-0 pollock occurring over the southeast shelf consumed high numbers of euphausiids which may have provided a high quality alternate prey. In 2016 a retracted Cold Pool precluded significant refuging in the north, though pollock foraging on available euphausiids over the southern shelf may have mitigated the effect of warm waters and reduced large availability of large copepods. This work presents the hypothesis that, in the short term, juvenile pollock can mitigate the drastic impacts of sustained warming. This short-term buffering, combined with recent observations (2017) of renewed sea ice presence over southeast Bering Sea shelf and a potential return to average or at least cooler ecosystem conditions, suggests that recent warm year stanza (2014–2016) effects to the pollock population and fishery may be mitigated. PMID:28658253
Improving conservation of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): conceptualization and contributions toward a regional warm-water network management strategy for sustainable winter habitat.

PubMed

Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

2013-01-01

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.
Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

2013-01-01

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.
Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J

2017-03-07

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.
Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

PubMed Central

Mickley, Loretta J.

2017-01-01

We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region. PMID:28223483
Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E.

2012-01-01

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.;

2012-01-01

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Two manatees surface for air in water on KSC. Manatees live in Florida's warm water rivers and inland springs. KSC shares a boundary with the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, which encompasses 92,000 acres that are a habitat for more than 331 species of birds, 31 mammals, 117 fishes, and 65 amphibians and reptiles.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-08-15

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Two manatees surface for air in water on KSC. Manatees live in Florida's warm water rivers and inland springs. KSC shares a boundary with the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, which encompasses 92,000 acres that are a habitat for more than 331 species of birds, 31 mammals, 117 fishes, and 65 amphibians and reptiles.
Spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years based on a generalised temperature zone-elevation model.

PubMed

Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

PubMed Central

Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182
Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.
Simulating potential structural and operational changes for Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River, Oregon, for downstream temperature management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Sullivan, Annett B.; Risley, John C.

2012-01-01

Detroit Dam was constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River in western Oregon and resulted in the formation of Detroit Lake. With a full-pool storage volume of 455,100 acre-feet and a dam height of 463 feet, Detroit Lake is one of the largest and most important reservoirs in the Willamette River basin in terms of power generation, recreation, and water storage and releases. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers operates Detroit Dam as part of a system of 13 reservoirs in the Willamette Project to meet multiple goals, which include flood-damage protection, power generation, downstream navigation, recreation, and irrigation. A distinct cycle in water temperature occurs in Detroit Lake as spring and summer heating through solar radiation creates a warm layer of water near the surface and isolates cold water below. Controlling the temperature of releases from Detroit Dam, therefore, is highly dependent on the location, characteristics, and usage of the dam's outlet structures. Prior to operational changes in 2007, Detroit Dam had a well-documented effect on downstream water temperature that was problematic for endangered salmonid fish species, releasing water that was too cold in midsummer and too warm in autumn. This unnatural seasonal temperature pattern caused problems in the timing of fish migration, spawning, and emergence. In this study, an existing calibrated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic water-quality model [CE-QUAL-W2] of Detroit Lake was used to determine how changes in dam operation or changes to the structural release points of Detroit Dam might affect downstream water temperatures under a range of historical hydrologic and meteorological conditions. The results from a subset of the Detroit Lake model scenarios then were used as forcing conditions for downstream CE-QUAL-W2 models of Big Cliff Reservoir (the small reregulating reservoir just downstream of Detroit Dam) and the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers. Many combinations of environmental, operational, and structural options were explored with the model scenarios. Multiple downstream temperature targets were used along with three sets of environmental forcing conditions representing cool/wet, normal, and hot/dry conditions. Five structural options at Detroit Dam were modeled, including the use of existing outlets, one hypothetical variable-elevation outlet such as a sliding gate, a hypothetical combination of a floating outlet and a fixed-elevation outlet, and a hypothetical combination of a floating outlet and a sliding gate. Finally, 14 sets of operational guidelines for Detroit Dam were explored to gain an understanding of the effects of imposing different downstream minimum streamflows, imposing minimum outflow rules to specific outlets, and managing the level of the lake with different timelines through the year. Selected subsets of these combinations of operational and structural scenarios were run through the downstream models of Big Cliff Reservoir and the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers to explore how hypothetical changes at Detroit Dam might provide improved temperatures for endangered salmonids downstream of the Detroit-Big Cliff Dam complex. Conclusions that can be drawn from these model scenarios include: *The water-temperature targets set by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for releases from Detroit Dam can be met through a combination of new dam outlets or a delayed drawdown of the lake in autumn. *Spring and summer dam operations greatly affect the available release temperatures and operational flexibility later in the autumn. Releasing warm water during midsummer tends to keep more cool water available for release in autumn. *The ability to meet downstream temperature targets during spring depends on the characteristics of the available outlets. Under existing conditions, although warm water sometimes is present at the lake surface in spring and early summer, such water may not be available for release if the lake level is either well below or well above the spillway crest. *Managing lake releases to meet downstream temperature targets depends on having outlet structures that can access both (warm) lake surface water and (cold) deeper lake water throughout the year. The existing outlets at Detroit Dam do not allow near-surface waters to be released during times when the lake surface level is below the spillway (spring and autumn). *Using the existing outlets at Detroit Dam, lake level management is important to the water temperature of releases because it controls the availability and depth of water at the spillway. When lake level is lowered below the spillway crest in late summer, the loss of access to warm water at the lake surface can result in abrupt changes to release temperatures. *Because the power-generation intakes (penstocks) are 166 feet below the full-pool lake level, imposing minimum power production requirements at Detroit Dam limits the amount of warm surface water that can be expelled from the lake in midsummer, thereby postponing and amplifying warm outflows from Detroit Lake into the autumn spawning season. *Likewise, imposing minimum power production requirements at Detroit Dam in autumn can limit the amount of cool hypolimnetic water that is released from the lake, thereby limiting cool outflows from Detroit Lake during the autumn spawning season. *Model simulations indicate that a delayed drawdown of Detroit Lake in autumn would result in better control over release temperatures in the immediate downstream vicinity of Big Cliff Dam, but the reduced outflows necessary to retain more water in the lake in late summer are more susceptible to rapid heating downstream. *Compared to the existing outlets at Detroit Dam, floating or sliding-gate outlet structures can provide greater control over release temperatures because they provide better access to warm water at the lake surface and cooler water at depth. These conclusions can be grouped into several common themes. First, optimal and flexible management and achievement of downstream temperature goals requires that releases of warm water near the surface of the lake and cold water below the thermocline are both possible with the available dam outlets during spring, summer, and autumn. This constraint can be met to some extent with existing outlets, but only if access to the spillway is extended into autumn by keeping the lake level higher than called for by the current rule curve (the typical target water-surface elevation throughout the year). If new outlets are considered, a variable-elevation outlet such as a sliding gate structure, or a floating outlet in combination with a fixed-elevation outlet at sufficient depth to access cold water, is likely to work well in terms of accessing a range of water temperatures and achieving downstream temperature targets. Furthermore, model results indicate that it is important to release warm water from near the lake surface during midsummer. If not released downstream, the warm water will build up at the top of the lake as a result of solar energy inputs and the thermocline will deepen, potentially causing warm water to reach the depth of deeper fixed-elevation outlets in autumn, particularly when the lake level is drawn down to make room for flood storage. Delaying the drawdown in autumn can help to keep the thermocline above such outlets and preserve access to cold water. Although it is important to generate hydropower at Detroit Dam, minimum power-production requirements limit the ability of dam operators to meet downstream temperature targets with existing outlet structures. The location of the power penstocks below the thermocline in spring and most of summer causes the release of more cool water during summer than is optimal. Reducing the power-production constraint allows the temperature target to be met more frequently, but at the cost of less power generation. Finally, running the Detroit Dam, Big Cliff Dam, and North Santiam and Santiam River models in series allows dam operators to evaluate how different operational strategies or combinations of new dam outlets might affect downstream temperatures for many miles of critical endangered salmonid habitat. Temperatures can change quickly in these downstream reaches as the river exchanges heat with its surroundings, and heating or cooling of 6 degrees Celsius is not unusual in the 40–50 miles downstream of Big Cliff Dam. The results published in this report supersede preliminary results published in U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1268 (Buccola and Rounds, 2011). Those preliminary results are still valid, but the results in this report are more current and comprehensive.
Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Webster, Peter J.; Rajeevan, Madhavan N.; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2015-05-01

Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989-2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical-empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical-empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989-2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921-2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP-ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability.
Modelling the effect of low soil temperatures on transpiration by Scots pine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellander, Per-Erik; Stähli, Manfred; Gustafsson, David; Bishop, Kevin

2006-06-01

For ecosystem modelling of the Boreal forest it is important to include processes associated with low soil temperature during spring-early summer, as these affect the tree water uptake. The COUP model, a physically based SVAT model, was tested with 2 years of soil and snow physical measurements and sap flow measurements in a 70-year-old Scots pine stand in the boreal zone of northern Sweden. During the first year the extent and duration of soil frost was manipulated in the field. The model was successful in reproducing the timing of the soil warming after the snowmelt and frost thaw. A delayed soil warming, into the growing season, severely reduced the transpiration. We demonstrated the potential for considerable overestimation of transpiration by the model if the reduction of the trees' capacity to transpire due to low soil temperatures is not taken into account. We also demonstrated that the accumulated effect of aboveground conditions could be included when simulating the relationship between soil temperature and tree water uptake. This improved the estimated transpiration for the control plot and when soil warming was delayed into the growing season. The study illustrates the need of including antecedent conditions on root growth in the model in order to catch these effects on transpiration. The COUP model is a promising tool for predicting transpiration in high-latitude stands.
Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas

PubMed Central

Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Trappmann, D.; Madrigal-González, J.; Eckert, N.; Stoffel, M.

2018-01-01

Ongoing climate warming has been demonstrated to impact the cryosphere in the Indian Himalayas, with substantial consequences for the risk of disasters, human well-being, and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present evidence that the warming observed in recent decades has been accompanied by increased snow avalanche frequency in the Western Indian Himalayas. Using dendrogeomorphic techniques, we reconstruct the longest time series (150 y) of the occurrence and runout distances of snow avalanches that is currently available for the Himalayas. We apply a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to demonstrate linkages between climate warming and the observed increase in the incidence of snow avalanches. Warming air temperatures in winter and early spring have indeed favored the wetting of snow and the formation of wet snow avalanches, which are now able to reach down to subalpine slopes, where they have high potential to cause damage. These findings contradict the intuitive notion that warming results in less snow, and thus lower avalanche activity, and have major implications for the Western Himalayan region, an area where human pressure is constantly increasing. Specifically, increasing traffic on a steadily expanding road network is calling for an immediate design of risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to enhance climate change adaption in the wider study region. PMID:29535224
Arctic atmospheric preconditioning: do not rule out shortwave radiation just yet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedlar, J.

2017-12-01

Springtime atmospheric preconditioning of Arctic sea ice for enhanced or buffered sea ice melt during the subsequent melt year has received considerable research focus in recent years. A general consensus points to enhanced poleward atmospheric transport of moisture and heat during spring, effectively increasing the emission of longwave radiation to the surface. Studies have essentially ruled out the role of shortwave radiation as an effective preconditioning mechanism because of the relatively weak incident solar radiation and high surface albedo from sea ice and snow during spring. These conclusions, however, are derived primarily from atmospheric reanalysis data, which may not always represent an accurate depiction of the Arctic climate system. Here, observations of top of atmosphere radiation from state of the art satellite sensors are examined and compared with reanalysis and climate model data to examine the differences in the spring radiative budget over the Arctic Ocean for years with extreme low/high ice extent at the end of the ice melt season (September). Distinct biases are observed between satellite-based measurements and reanalysis/models, particularly for the amount of shortwave radiation trapped (warming effect) within the Arctic climate system during spring months. A connection between the differences in reanalysis/model surface albedo representation and the albedo observed by satellite is discussed. These results suggest that shortwave radiation should not be overlooked as a significant contributing mechanism to springtime Arctic atmospheric preconditioning.
North Siberian Permafrost reveals Holocene Arctic Winter Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, H.; Opel, T.; Laepple, T.; Alexander, D.; Hoffmann, K.; Werner, M.

2014-12-01

The Arctic climate has experienced a major warming over the past decades, which is unprecedented in the last 2000 yrs. There are, however, still major uncertainties about the temperature evolution during the Holocene. Most proxy reconstructions suggest a cooling in mid-and late Holocene (e.g. Wanner, 2008), whereas climate model simulations show only weak changes or even a moderate warming (e.g. Lohmann et al., 2013). In this study, we used ice wedges as promising permafrost climate archive studied by stable water isotope methods. Ice wedges may be identified by vertically oriented foliations, and they form by the repeated filling of winter thermal contraction cracks by snow melt water in spring. Therefore, the isotopic composition of wedge ice may be attributed to the climate conditions of the cold season (i.e. winter and spring). 42 samples of organic material enclosed in ice wedges have been directly dated by Radiocarbon methods. Here, we present the first terrestrial stable oxygen isotope record of Holocene winter temperatures in up to centennial-scale resolution based on permafrost ice wedges (Lena River Delta; Siberian Arctic). The Lena ice-wedge record shows that the recent isotopic temperatures are the highest of the past 7000 years. Despite similarities to Arctic temperature reconstructions of the last two millennia (Kaufman et al., 2009), it suggests a winter warming throughout the mid and late Holocene, opposite to most existing other proxy records (Wanner, 2008). This apparent contradiction can be explained by the seasonality of the ice-wedge genesis in combination with orbital and greenhouse gas forcing and is consistent with climate model simulations. We conclude that the present model-data mismatch might be an artefact of the summer bias of the existing proxy records and thus, our record helps to reconcile the understanding of the northern hemisphere Holocene temperature evolution. This is particular true for the Russian Arctic significantly underrepresented in Arctic-wide climate reconstructions. Kaufman, D. S. et al. Science 325, 1236-1239 (2009).Wanner, H. et al. Quat. Sci. Rev. 27, 1791-1828, (2008).Lohmann, G., Pfeiffer, M., Laepple, T., Leduc, G. & Kim, J. H. Clim. Past 9, 1807-1839, (2013).
Future atmospheric CO2 leads to delayed autumnal senescence

Treesearch

Gail Taylor; Matthew J. Tallis; Christian P. Giardina; Kevin E. Percy; Franco Miglietta; Pooja S. Gupta; Beniamin Gioli; Carlo Calfapietra; Birgit Gielen; Mark E. Kubiske; Giuseppe E. Scarascia-Mugnozza; Katre Kets; Stephen P. Long; David F. Karnosky

2008-01-01

Growing seasons are getting longer, a phenomenon partially explained by increasing global temperatures. Recent reports suggest that a strong correlation exists between warming and advances in spring phenology but that a weaker correlation is evident between warming and autumnal events implying that other factors may be influencing the timing of autumnal phenology....
Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology

Treesearch

Trevor F. Keenan; Josh Gray; Mark A. Friedl; Michael Toomey; Gil Bohrer; David Y. Hollinger; J. William Munger; John O’Keefe; Hans Peter Schmid; Ian Sue Wing; Bai Yang; Andrew D. Richardson

2014-01-01

The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system1. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (although the exact sensitivity is disputed2) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn3,4...
Simulated climate-warming increases Coleoptera activity-densities and reduces community diversity in a cereal crop

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To assess one likely effect of global warming, we experimentally increased the temperature and precipitation of a coleopteran community (mainly Carabidae) of an agro-ecosystem. We simulated climate change on a field of spring wheat by experimentally increasing the temperature by 2°C using infrared h...
Linking phenological events in migratory passerines with a changing climate: 50 years in the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania.

PubMed

McDermott, Molly E; DeGroote, Lucas W

2017-01-01

Advanced timing of both seasonal migration and reproduction in birds has been strongly associated with a warming climate for many bird species. Phenological responses to climate linking these stages may ultimately impact fitness. We analyzed five decades of banding data from 17 migratory bird species to investigate 1) how spring arrival related to timing of breeding, 2) if the interval between arrival and breeding has changed with increasing spring temperatures, and 3) whether arrival timing or breeding timing best predicted local productivity. Four of 17 species, all mid- to long-distance migrants, hatched young earlier in years when migrants arrived earlier to the breeding grounds (~1:1 day advancement). The interval between arrival on breeding grounds and appearance of juveniles shortened with warmer spring temperatures for 12 species (1-6 days for every 1°C increase) and over time for seven species (1-8 days per decade), suggesting that some migratory passerines adapt to climate change by laying more quickly after arrival or reducing the time from laying to fledging. We found more support for the former, that the rate of reproductive advancement was higher than that for arrival in warm years. Timing of spring arrival and breeding were both poor predictors of avian productivity for most migrants analyzed. Nevertheless, we found evidence that fitness benefits may occur from shifts to earlier spring arrival for the multi-brooded Song Sparrow. Our results uniquely demonstrate that co-occurring avian species are phenologically plastic in their response to climate change on their breeding grounds. If migrants continue to show a weaker response to temperatures during migration than breeding, and the window between arrival and optimal breeding shortens further, biological constraints to plasticity may limit the ability of species to adapt successfully to future warming.
A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998-2013 warming slowdown.

PubMed

Prodon, Roger; Geniez, Philippe; Cheylan, Marc; Devers, Florence; Chuine, Isabelle; Besnard, Aurelien

2017-12-01

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle-above all, their phenology. The timing of herps' activity or migration period-in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding-and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20 th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species' first spring appearance-which may be the result of current changes in climate-and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, I.; Vakulenko, S. A.; Golden, K. M.

2015-05-01

Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo - a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point - an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice-albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to bifurcation points.
Karst Groundwater Hydrologic Analyses Based on Aerial Thermography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, C. Warren; Keith, A. G.

2000-01-01

On February 23, 1999, thermal imagery of Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama was collected using an airborne thermal camera. Ground resolution was I in. Approximately 40 km 2 of thermal imagery in and around Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) was analyzed to determine the location of springs for groundwater monitoring. Subsequently, forty-five springs were located ranging in flow from a few ml/sec to approximately 280 liter/sec. Groundwater temperatures are usually near the mean annual surface air temperature. On thermography collected during the winter, springs show up as very warm spots. Many of the new springs were submerged in lakes, streams, or swamps; consequently, flow measurements were difficult. Without estimates of discharge, the impacts of contaminated discharge on surface streams would be difficult to evaluate. An approach to obtaining an estimate was developed using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System (CORMIX). The thermography was queried to obtain a temperature profile down the center of the surface plume. The spring discharge was modeled with CORMIX, and the flow adjusted until the surface temperature profile was matched. The presence of volatile compounds in some of the new springs also allowed MSFC to unravel the natural system of solution cavities of the karst aquifer. Sampling results also showed that two springs on either side of a large creek had the same water source so that groundwater was able to pass beneath the creek.
Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Kammerdiener, Susan A.; Dettinger, M.D.; Caprio, Joseph M.; Peterson, D.H.

2001-01-01

Fluctuations in spring climate in the western United States over the last 4-5 decades are described by examining changes in the blooming of plants and the timing of snowmelt-runoff pulses. The two measures of spring's onset that are employed are the timing of first bloom of lilac and honeysuckle bushes from a long-term cooperative phonological network, and the timing of the first major pulse of snowmelt recorded from high-elevation streams. Both measures contain year-to-year fluctuations, with typical year-to-year fluctuations at a given site of one to three weeks. These fluctuations are spatially coherent, forming regional patterns that cover most of the west. Fluctuations in lilac first bloom dates are highly correlated to those of honeysuckle, and both are significantly correlated with those of the spring snowmelt pulse. Each of these measures, then, probably respond to a common mechanism. Various analyses indicate that anomalous temperature exerts the greatest influence upon both interannual and secular changes in the onset of spring in these networks. Earlier spring onsets since the late 1970s are a remarkable feature of the records, and reflect the unusual spell of warmer-than-normal springs in western North America during this period. The warm episodes are clearly related to larger-scale atmospheric conditions across North America and the North Pacific, but whether this is predominantly an expression of natural variability or also a symptom of global warming is not certain.
Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Archuleta County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.
Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, San Miguel County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.
Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Fremont County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.
Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Routt County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled"warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Alamosa and Saguache Counties, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.
Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Dolores County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.
A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone.

PubMed

Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.
Impact of the Spring SST Gradient between the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific on Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Frequency in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei; Chen, Guanghua

2018-06-01

The present study identifies a significant influence of the sea surface temperature gradient (SSTG) between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO; 15°S-15°N, 40°-90°E) and the western Pacific warm pool (WWP; 0°-15°N, 125°-155°E) in boreal spring on tropical cyclone (TC) landfall frequency in mainland China in boreal summer. During the period 1979-2015, a positive spring SSTG induces a zonal inter-basin circulation anomaly with lower-level convergence, mid-tropospheric ascendance and upper-level divergence over the west-central TIO, and the opposite situation over the WWP, which produces lower-level anomalous easterlies and upper-level anomalous westerlies between the TIO and WWP. This zonal circulation anomaly further warms the west-central TIO by driving warm water westward and cools the WWP by inducing local upwelling, which facilitates the persistence of the anomaly until the summer. Consequently, lower-level negative vorticity, strong vertical wind shear and lower-level anticyclonic anomalies prevail over most of the western North Pacific (WNP), which decreases the TC genesis frequency. Meanwhile, there is an anomalous mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the main WNP TC genesis region, meaning a westerly anomaly dominates over coastal regions of mainland China, which is unfavorable for steering TCs to make landfall in mainland China during summer. This implies that the spring SSTG may act as a potential indicator for TC landfall frequency in mainland China.
Effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China.

PubMed

Tao, Yuqiang; Xue, Bin; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Fei; Wang, Zhen

2017-04-01

To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851-1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assel, R.A.; Robertson, Dale M.

1995-01-01

Records of freezeup and breakup dates for Grand Traverse Bay, Michigan, and Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, are among the longest ice records available near the Great Lakes, beginning in 185 1 and 1855, respectively. The timing of freezeup and breakup results from an integration of meteorological conditions (primarily air temperature) that occur before these events. Changes in the average timing of these ice-events are translated into changes in air temperature by the use of empirical and process-driven models. The timing of freezeup and breakup at the two locations represents an integration of air temperatures over slightly different seasons (months). Records from both locations indicate that the early winter period before about 1890 was - 15°C cooler than the early winter period after that time; the mean temperature has, however, remained relatively constant since about 1890. Changes in breakup dates demonstrate a similar 1.0-1 .5”C increase in late winter and early spring air temperatures about 1890. More recent average breakup dates at both locations have been earlier than during 1890-1940, indicating an additional warming of 1.2”C in March since about 1940 and a warming of 1 . 1°C in January-March since about 1980. Ice records at these sites will continue to provide an early indication of the anticipated climatic warming, not only because of the large response of ice cover to small changes in air temperature but also because these records integrate climatic conditions during the seasons (winter-spring) when most warming is forecast to occur. Future reductions in ice cover may strongly affect the winter ecology of the Great Lakes by reducing the stable environment required by various levels of the food chain.
Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.
Estimating unbiased phenological trends by adapting site-occupancy models.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Strebel, Nicolas; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-08-01

As a response to climate warming, many animals and plants have been found to shift phenologies, such as appearance in spring or timing of reproduction. However, traditional measures for shifts in phenology that are based on observational data likely are biased due to a large influence of population size, observational effort, starting date of a survey, or other causes that may affect the probability of detecting a species. Understanding phenological responses of species to climate change, however, requires a robust measure that could be compared among studies and study years. Here, we developed a new method for estimating arrival and departure dates based on site-occupancy models. Using simulated data, we show that our method provided virtually unbiased estimates of phenological events even if detection probability or the number of sites occupied by the species is changing over time. To illustrate the flexibility of our method, we analyzed spring arrival of two long-distance migrant songbirds and the length of the flight period of two butterfly species, using data from a long-term biodiversity monitoring program in Switzerland. In contrast to many birds that migrate short distances, the two long-distance migrant songbirds tended to postpone average spring arrival by -0.5 days per year between 1995 and 2012. Furthermore, the flight period of the short-distance-flying butterfly species apparently became even shorter over the study period, while the flight period of the longer-distance-flying butterfly species remained relatively stable. Our method could be applied to temporally and spatially extensive data from a wide range of monitoring programs and citizen science projects, to help unravel how species and communities respond to global warming.
Simulated climate warming alters phenological synchrony between an outbreak insect herbivore and host trees.

PubMed

Schwartzberg, Ezra G; Jamieson, Mary A; Raffa, Kenneth F; Reich, Peter B; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Lindroth, Richard L

2014-07-01

As the world's climate warms, the phenologies of interacting organisms in seasonally cold environments may advance at differing rates, leading to alterations in phenological synchrony that can have important ecological consequences. For temperate and boreal species, the timing of early spring development plays a key role in plant-herbivore interactions and can influence insect performance, outbreak dynamics, and plant damage. We used a field-based, meso-scale free-air forest warming experiment (B4WarmED) to examine the effects of elevated temperature on the phenology and performance of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria) in relation to the phenology of two host trees, aspen (Populus tremuloides) and birch (Betula papyrifera). Results of our 2-year study demonstrated that spring phenology advanced for both insects and trees, with experimentally manipulated increases in temperature of 1.7 and 3.4 °C. However, tree phenology advanced more than insect phenology, resulting in altered phenological synchrony. Specifically, we observed a decrease in the time interval between herbivore egg hatch and budbreak of aspen in both years and birch in one year. Moreover, warming decreased larval development time from egg hatch to pupation, but did not affect pupal mass. Larvae developed more quickly on aspen than birch, but pupal mass was not affected by host species. Our study reveals that warming-induced phenological shifts can alter the timing of ecological interactions across trophic levels. These findings illustrate one mechanism by which climate warming could mediate insect herbivore outbreaks, and also highlights the importance of climate change effects on trophic interactions.
Water-quality trends for selected sampling sites in the upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, water years 1996-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Lorenz, David L.; Barnhart, Elliott P.

2014-01-01

A large-scale trend analysis was done on specific conductance, selected trace elements (arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc), and suspended-sediment data for 22 sites in the upper Clark Fork Basin for water years 1996–2010. Trend analysis was conducted by using two parametric methods: a time-series model (TSM) and multiple linear regression on time, streamflow, and season (MLR). Trend results for 1996–2010 indicate moderate to large decreases in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) and loads of copper (and other metallic elements) and suspended sediment in Silver Bow Creek upstream from Warm Springs. Deposition of metallic elements and suspended sediment within Warm Springs Ponds substantially reduces the downstream transport of those constituents. However, mobilization of copper and suspended sediment from floodplain tailings and stream banks in the Clark Fork reach from Galen to Deer Lodge is a large source of metallic elements and suspended sediment, which also affects downstream transport of those constituents. Copper and suspended-sediment loads mobilized from within this reach accounted for about 40 and 20 percent, respectively, of the loads for Clark Fork at Turah Bridge (site 20); whereas, streamflow contributed from within this reach only accounted for about 8 percent of the streamflow at Turah Bridge. Minor changes in FACs and loads of copper and suspended sediment are indicated for this reach during 1996–2010. Clark Fork reaches downstream from Deer Lodge are relatively smaller sources of metallic elements than the reach from Galen to Deer Lodge. In general, small decreases in loads and FACs of copper and suspended sediment are indicated for Clark Fork sites downstream from Deer Lodge during 1996–2010. Thus, although large decreases in FACs and loads of copper and suspended sediment are indicated for Silver Bow Creek upstream from Warm Springs, those large decreases are not translated to the more downstream reaches largely because of temporal stationarity in constituent transport relations in the Clark Fork reach from Galen to Deer Lodge. Unlike metallic elements, arsenic (a metalloid element) in streams in the upper Clark Fork Basin typically is mostly in dissolved phase, has less variability in concentrations, and has weaker direct relations with suspended-sediment concentrations and streamflow. Arsenic trend results for 1996–2010 indicate generally moderate decreases in FACs and loads in Silver Bow Creek upstream from Opportunity. In general, small temporal changes in loads and FACs of arsenic are indicated for Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork reaches downstream from Opportunity during 1996–2010. Contribution of arsenic (from Warm Springs Ponds, the Mill-Willow bypass, and groundwater sources) in the Silver Bow Creek reach from Opportunity to Warm Springs is a relatively large source of arsenic. Arsenic loads originating from within this reach accounted for about 11 percent of the load for Clark Fork at Turah Bridge; whereas, streamflow contributed from within this reach only accounted for about 2 percent of the streamflow at Turah Bridge.
Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

2017-11-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.
Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.

2018-03-01

We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.
Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2018-04-01

We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.
Modeling the Impacts of Long-Term Warming Trends on Gross Primary Productivity Across North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. A.; Grant, R. F.

2014-12-01

There is evidence of warming over recent decades in most regions of North America (NA) that affects ecosystem productivity and the past decade has been the warmest since instrumental records of global surface temperatures began. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal variability and trends of warming across NA using climate data from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2010 with a 3-hourly time-step and 0.250 x 0.250 spatial resolution as part of the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A comprehensive mathematical process model, ecosys was used to simulate impacts of this variability in warming on gross primary productivity (GPP). In a test of model results, annual GPP modeled for pixels which corresponded to the locations of 25 eddy covariance towers correlated well (R2=0.76) with annual GPP derived from the flux towers in 2005. At the continental scale long-term (2000 - 2010) annual average modeled GPP for NA correlated well (geographically weighed regression R2 = 0.8) with MODIS GPP, demonstrating close similarities in spatial patterns. Results from the NARR indicated that most areas of NA, particularly high latitude regions, have experienced warming but changes in precipitation vary spatially over the last three decades. GPP modeled in most areas with lower mean annual air temperature (Ta), such as those in boreal climate zones, increased due to early spring and late autumn warming observed in NARR. However modeled GPP declined in most southwestern regions of NA, due to water stress from rising Ta and declining precipitation. Overall, GPP modeled across NA had a positive trend of +0.025 P g C yr-1 with a range of -1.16 to 0.87 P g C yr-1 from the long-term mean. Interannual variability of GPP was the greatest in southwest of US and part of the Great Plains, which could be as a result of frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation' (ENSO) events that led to major droughts.
A Retirement and A Reservation: A Retrospective Autobiography

PubMed Central

Lee, Sok K

2012-01-01

A retirement is a rite of passage that requires careful planning, because it forces a retiree to make a shift in the paradigm in life. For 37 years, I was a healing professional, a breadwinner, and a working spouse. I am now a jobless loner, an inactive pensioner, and a homebound spouse. In this retrospective autobiography, I suggest a few points to help my younger colleagues to better their upcoming retirement: professional, financial, social, and familial. To overcome Erikson's identity crisis, I volunteered to be a wounded healer at Warm Springs Indian Reservation. My volunteer medical service at Warm Springs Indian Reservation was a good antidote to creatively overcome my postretirement blues. PMID:22745621
A retirement and a reservation: a retrospective autobiography.

PubMed

Lee, Sok K

2012-01-01

A retirement is a rite of passage that requires careful planning, because it forces a retiree to make a shift in the paradigm in life. For 37 years, I was a healing professional, a breadwinner, and a working spouse. I am now a jobless loner, an inactive pensioner, and a homebound spouse. In this retrospective autobiography, I suggest a few points to help my younger colleagues to better their upcoming retirement: professional, financial, social, and familial. To overcome Erikson's identity crisis, I volunteered to be a wounded healer at Warm Springs Indian Reservation. My volunteer medical service at Warm Springs Indian Reservation was a good antidote to creatively overcome my postretirement blues.
Drilling report: State Nursery test well No. 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donovan, J.; Sonderegger, J.

1982-08-27

A geothermal test well was sited and drilled approximately 0.8 miles (1.3 km) east of Broadwater Hot Springs, near Helena, Montana. The site is on the property of the State Nursery, along the north side of Ten Mile Creek. The purpose of the drilling was to test a thermal infrared imagery anomaly and to evaluate whether a source of warm water for space heating of a series of new greenhouses could be developed to replace ones destroyed in the spring 1981 flooding of Ten Mile Creek. The well was drilled to 280 feet total depth, with no success in obtainingmore » hot or even warm water.« less
Long-term trends in shortgrass steppe vegetation during a 21-year period of increasing temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alward, R.D.; Milchunas, D.G.; Detling, J.K.

Long-term weather records from the Central Plains Experimental Range revealed a general warming trend in average annual temperatures from 1971 through 1991. This was largely the result of a significant increase in mean annual minimum temperature (T{sub min}). Permanently marked vegetation quadrants were monitored for much of this same period. We constructed linear correlational models to assess relationships of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation with plant densities and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) within a grazing exclosure. Response variables correlated with T{sub min} included: (i) tiller densities of the dominant grass, Bouteloua gracilis, and other warm season grasses, (ii)more » forb densities and ANPP, and (iii) total ANPP. Responses correlated with T{sub max} included: (i) total basal cover and (ii) densities and ANPP of several species. Plant species diversity was correlated with spring precipitation. Some species responded to the interactive effects of spring temperatures and precipitation. This investigation suggests that shortgrass steppe vegetation may be sensitive to climate change and supports predictions that asymmetric changes in diurnal temperatures may be an important component of climate change.« less
Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wise, Erika K.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory; Pederson, Gregory T.; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie

2018-01-01

Despite the importance of the Missouri River for navigation, recreation, habitat, hydroelectric power, and agriculture, relatively little is known about the basic hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin (MRB). This is of particular concern given the droughts and floods that have occurred over the past several decades and the potential future exacerbation of these extremes by climate change. Here, observed and modeled hydroclimatic data and estimated natural flow records in the MRB are used to 1) assess the major source regions of MRB flow, 2) describe the climatic controls on streamflow in the upper and lower basins , and 3) investigate trends over the instrumental period. Analyses indicate that 72% of MRB runoff is generated by the headwaters in the upper basin and by the lowest portion of the basin near the mouth. Spring precipitation and temperature and winter precipitation impacted by changes in zonal versus meridional flow from the Pacific Ocean play key roles in surface water supply variability in the upper basin. Lower basin flow is significantly correlated with precipitation in late spring and early summer, indicative of Atlantic-influenced circulation variability affecting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Although increases in precipitation in the lower basin are currently overriding the effects of warming temperatures on total MRB flow, the upper basin’s long-term trend toward decreasing flows, reduction in snow versus rain fraction, and warming spring temperatures suggest that the upper basin may less often provide important flow supplements to the lower basin in the future.
Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-12-01

In eastern East Africa (the southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia region), poor boreal spring (long wet season) rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent East African droughts to a stronger Walker circulation, resulting from warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increased east-to-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the western Pacific, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied to SST fluctuations in the western central Pacific and central Indian Ocean, respectively. Variations in these two rainfall modes can thus be predicted using two SST indices - the western Pacific gradient (WPG) and central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with our statistical forecasts exhibiting reasonable cross-validated skill (rcv ≈ 0.6). In contrast, the current generation of coupled forecast models show no skill during the long rains. Our SST indices also appear to capture most of the major recent drought events such as 2000, 2009 and 2011. Predictions based on these simple indices can be used to support regional forecasting efforts and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific in post-El Niño summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.; DU, Y.; Hu, K.; Chowdary, J. S.; Huang, G.

2016-12-01

El Niño typically peaks in boreal winter, and the associated equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signal dissipates before subsequent summer. Its impact, however, outlasts until boreal summer in the Indo-western Pacific, featuring basin-wide Indian Ocean warming and tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling accompanied by the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern with surface anomalous anticyclone (AAC) extending from the Philippine Sea to the northern Indian Ocean. Two formation mechanisms have been proposed for these climate anomalies in post-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) summer. One hypothesis invokes the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback in the tropical Northwestern Pacific, while the other points to inter-basin feedback between the Indian Ocean and tropical Northwestern Pacific. Based on a coupled model experiment, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled mode that synthesizes the two mechanisms. This Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode evolves seasonally from spring to summer under seasonal migration of background state. In spring, the WES feedback is operative in association with the tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling, while in summer the Indian Ocean warming and the inter-basin interaction maintains the AAC. While the IPOC mode is independent of ENSO in mechanism, ENSO can drive this mode in its decay phase. This excitation, however, has undergone substantial interdecadal modulations, depending on ENSO amplitude and persistence of Indian Ocean warming. The ENSO-IPOC correlation is high after the mid-1970s and at the beginning of the 20th century, but low in between.
Activity of the mangrove snail Cerithidea decollata (Gastropoda: Potamididae) in a warm temperate South African estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgson, Alan N.; Dickens, John

2012-08-01

A population of Cerithidea decollata, an intertidal marine gastropod usually found within mangroves, was studied within an area of Juncus kraussii in the upper reaches of the warm temperate Knysna estuary, which is at the southern-most limit of the recorded distribution of this snail. Activity (migratory and homing behaviour, distances travelled during foraging) of the snails was monitored over spring and neap tides in four seasons. Migratory patterns of the snails were affected by season, time of low tide (day vs night), tidal magnitude (spring vs neap) and zonation. In the summer and spring, a greater proportion of snails migrated from J. kraussii leaves onto the mud during the day at spring low tide. During neap tides in these two seasons, most snails did not climb J. kraussii leaves and remained on the mud, which was nearly always exposed. In autumn a few snails only were active and in winter snails were almost completely inactive, probably due to low air temperatures. Snails travelled greater distances on the mud on spring tides, during the diurnal low tides, and in the summer. No snails were found to home to individual J. kraussii leaves; however, homing behaviour was recorded to wooden poles within the Juncus wetland.
Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring.

PubMed

Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2016-06-05

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).
Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216510
Warming and Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Alter Plant Production and Ecosystem gas Exchange in a Semi-Arid Grassland Through Direct Responses to Global Change Factors and Indirect Effects on Water Relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. A.; Pendall, E.; Williams, D. G.; Bachman, S.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Lecain, D. R.; Follett, R.

2007-12-01

The Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment was initiated in Spring, 2007 to evaluate the combined effects of warming and elevated CO2 on a northern mixed-grass prairie. Thirty 3-m diameter circular experimental plots were installed in Spring, 2006 at the USDA-ARS High Plains Grasslands Research Station, just west of Cheyenne, WY, USA. Twenty plots were assigned to a two-level factorial combination of two CO2 concentrations (present ambient, 380 ppmV; and elevated, 600 ppmV), and two levels of temperature (present ambient; and elevated temperature, 1.5/3.0 C warmer day/night), with five replications for each treatment. Five of the ten remaining plots were subjected to either frequent, small water additions throughout the growing season, and the other five to a deep watering once or twice during the growing season. The watering treatments were imposed to simulate hypothesized water savings in the CO2-enriched plots, and to contrast the influence of variable water dynamics on ecosystem processes. Carbon dioxide enrichment of the ten CO2- enriched plots is accomplished with Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology and occurs during daylight hours of the mid-April - October growing season. Warming is done year-round with circularly-arranged ceramic heater arrays positioned above the ring perimeters, and with temperature feed-backs to control day/night canopy surface temperatures. Carbon dioxide enrichment began in Spring, 2006, and warming was added in Spring, 2007. Results from the first year of CO2 enrichment (2006) confirmed earlier reports that CO2 increases productivity in semi-arid grasslands (21% increase in peak seasonal above ground biomass for plants grown under elevated CO2 compared to non-enriched controls), and that the response was related to CO2- induced water savings. Growth at elevated CO2 reduced leaf carbon isotope discrimination and N concentrations in plants compared to results obtained in control plots, but the magnitude of changes were highly species specific. Ecosystem-level gas exchange measurements indicated that interactions between watering and CO2 enrichment increased C cycling over a range of soil moisture conditions, although watering had a greater relative impact on C fluxes than CO2 enrichment. Results from the combined warming and CO2 enrichment experiment in 2007 indicate soil fluxes of CO2 increased with elevated CO2 and warming, but decreased with warming later in the year compared to un-heated controls. Soil CH4 uptake was enhanced by elevated CO2 but reduced by warming, particularly later in the year. Soil fluxes of N2O were unaffected by treatment. These preliminary results indicate potentially strong feedbacks between carbon cycling and warming are mediated by ecosystem processes in this semiarid rangeland.
The warm winter and spring of 2012: Why degree-days were critical in measuring insect and plant development

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the spring of 2012, extremely high temperatures were recorded in the upper Midwest during the month of March. This sustained heat wave not only made March the warmest on record, but also induced remarkably fast development of arthropods and plants. In terms of degree-days, however, the arthropod ...
Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musselman, Keith N.; Molotch, Noah P.; Margulis, Steven A.

2017-12-01

In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 °C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (-10 % °C-1) consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles) to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.
Limited alpine climatic warming and modeled phenology advancement for three alpine species in the Northeast United States.

PubMed

Kimball, Kenneth D; Davis, Michael L; Weihrauch, Douglas M; Murray, Georgia L D; Rancourt, Kenneth

2014-09-01

• Most alpine plants in the Northeast United States are perennial and flower early in the growing season, extending their limited growing season. Concurrently, they risk the loss of reproductive efforts to late frosts. Quantifying long-term trends in northeastern alpine flower phenology and late-spring/early-summer frost risk is limited by a dearth of phenology and climate data, except for Mount Washington, New Hampshire (1916 m a.s.l.).• Logistic phenology models for three northeastern US alpine species (Diapensia lapponica, Carex bigelowii and Vaccinium vitis-idaea) were developed from 4 yr (2008-2011) of phenology and air temperature measurements from 12 plots proximate to Mount Washington's long-term summit meteorological station. Plot-level air temperature, the logistic phenology models, and Mount Washington's climate data were used to hindcast model yearly (1935-2011) floral phenology and frost damage risk for the focal species.• Day of year and air growing degree-days with threshold temperatures of -4°C (D. lapponica and C. bigelowii) and -2°C (V. vitis-idaea) best predicted flowering. Modeled historic flowering dates trended significantly earlier but the 77-yr change was small (1.2-2.1 d) and did not significantly increase early-flowering risk from late-spring/early-summer frost damage.• Modeled trends in phenological advancement and sensitivity for three northeastern alpine species are less pronounced compared with lower elevations in the region, and this small shift in flower timing did not increase risk of frost damage. Potential reasons for limited earlier phenological advancement at higher elevations include a slower warming trend and increased cloud exposure with elevation and/or inadequate chilling requirements. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.
Late quaternary slip-rate variations along the Warm Springs Valley fault system, northern Walker Lane, California-Nevada border

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gold, Ryan; dePolo, Craig; Briggs, Richard W.; Crone, Anthony

2013-01-01

The extent to which faults exhibit temporally varying slip rates has important consequences for models of fault mechanics and probabilistic seismic hazard. Here, we explore the temporal behavior of the dextral‐slip Warm Springs Valley fault system, which is part of a network of closely spaced (10–20 km) faults in the northern Walker Lane (California–Nevada border). We develop a late Quaternary slip record for the fault using Quaternary mapping and high‐resolution topographic data from airborne Light Distance and Ranging (LiDAR). The faulted Fort Sage alluvial fan (40.06° N, 119.99° W) is dextrally displaced 98+42/-43 m, and we estimate the age of the alluvial fan to be 41.4+10.0/-4.8 to 55.7±9.2 ka, based on a terrestrial cosmogenic 10Be depth profile and 36Cl analyses on basalt boulders, respectively. The displacement and age constraints for the fan yield a slip rate of 1.8 +0.8/-0.8 mm/yr to 2.4 +1.2/-1.1 mm/yr (2σ) along the northern Warm Springs Valley fault system for the past 41.4–55.7 ka. In contrast to this longer‐term slip rate, shorelines associated with the Sehoo highstand of Lake Lahontan (~15.8 ka) adjacent to the Fort Sage fan are dextrally faulted at most 3 m, which limits a maximum post‐15.8 ka slip rate to 0.2 mm/yr. These relations indicate that the post‐Lahontan slip rate on the fault is only about one‐tenth the longer‐term (41–56 ka) average slip rate. This apparent slip‐rate variation may be related to co‐dependent interaction with the nearby Honey Lake fault system, which shows evidence of an accelerated period of mid‐Holocene earthquakes.
Filling the interspace—restoring arid land mosses: source populations, organic matter, and overwintering govern success

USGS Publications Warehouse

Condon, Lea; Pyke, David A.

2016-01-01

Biological soil crusts contribute to ecosystem functions and occupy space that could be available to invasive annual grasses. Given disturbances in the semiarid shrub steppe communities, we embarked on a set of studies to investigate restoration potential of mosses in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. We examined establishment and growth of two moss species common to the Great Basin, USA: Bryum argenteum and Syntrichia ruralis from two environmental settings (warm dry vs. cool moist). Moss fragments were inoculated into a third warm dry setting, on bare soil in spring and fall, both with and without a jute net and with and without spring irrigation. Moss cover was monitored in spring seasons of three consecutive years. Both moss species increased in cover over the winter. When Bryum received spring irrigation that was out of sync with natural precipitation patterns, moss cover increased and then crashed, taking two seasons to recover. Syntrichia did not respond to the irrigation treatment. The addition of jute net increased moss cover under all conditions, except Syntrichia following fall inoculation, which required a second winter to increase in cover. The warm dry population of Bryum combined with jute achieved on average 60% cover compared to the cool moist population that achieved only 28% cover by the end of the study. Differences were less pronounced for Syntrichia where moss from the warm dry population with jute achieved on average 51% cover compared to the cool moist population that achieved 43% cover by the end of the study. Restoration of arid land mosses may quickly protect soils from erosion while occupying sites before invasive plants. We show that higher moss cover will be achieved quickly with the addition of organic matter and when moss fragments originate from sites with a climate that is similar to that of the restoration site.
Using on-site bioassays to determine selenium risk to propagated endangered fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allert, Ann L.; Fairchild, James F.; May, Thomas W.; Sappington, Linda C.; Darnall, N.; Wilson, M.

2006-01-01

The Utah Reclamation, Mitigation and Conservation Commission is determining the feasibility of establishing a hatchery and grow-out facility for endangered June suckers Chasmistes liorus at Goshen Warm Springs, Utah. A survey of water quality indicated that selenium and other contaminants may be of concern at Goshen Warm Springs. We conducted an ecotoxicological study with three objectives: (1) to determine the growth rates of juvenile June suckers in two ponds (Lily Pond and North Pond) at Goshen Warm Springs and in Utah Lake, (2) to determine the uptake and depuration rates of selenium in juvenile June suckers, and (3) to evaluate limnological factors that may influence growth and selenium accumulation in June suckers. Fish growth was significantly greater at Utah Lake and North Pond than at Lily Pond or under current hatchery conditions. At the end of the uptake phase of the study (day 87), selenium concentrations in June suckers from Lily Pond, North Pond, and Utah Lake were 1.62, 1.90, and 1.32 μg/g of dry weight, respectively. Selenium uptake in June suckers was statistically significant at Lily Pond (0.005 μg·g−1 ·d−1), North Pond (0.010 μg·g−1 ·d−1), and Utah Lake (0.003 μg·g−1 ·d−1). At day 87, the fish were transferred to well water for selenium depuration. Significant selenium depuration occurred after the transfer of June suckers to clean water. Results indicated that selenium bioaccumulated to statistically significant levels at both Lily and North ponds. However, these concentrations are not likely to be of concern because they are not known to cause chronic toxicity. Depuration experiments indicated that June suckers stocked into Utah Lake would eliminate accumulated selenium residues within 3 months. Results indicated that Goshen Warm Springs could be used for fish propagation. In addition, further evaluation of Utah Lake as an interim hatchery site for June suckers should be considered.
Mineral Resources of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area, Mohave County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Floyd; Jachens, Robert C.; Miller, Robert J.; Turner, Robert L.; Knepper, Daniel H.; Pitkin, James A.; Keith, William J.; Mariano, John; Jones, Stephanie L.; Korzeb, Stanley L.

1986-01-01

At the request of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, approximately 113,500 acres of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area (AZ-020-028/029) were evaluated for mineral resources and mineral resource potential. In this report, the area studied is referred to as the 'wilderness study area' or 'study area'; any reference to the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area refers only to that part of the wilderness study area for which a mineral survey was requested. This study area is located in west-central Arizona. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines conducted geological, geochemical, and geophysical surveys to appraise the identified mineral resources (known) and assess the mineral resource potential (undiscovered) of the study area. fieldwork for this report was carried out largely in 1986-1989. There is a 1-million short ton indicated subeconomic resource of clinoptilolite-mordenite zeolite and an additional inferred resource of 2 million short tons near McHeffy Butte, approximately 2 miles west of the study area. A perlite deposit in the southeast corner of the study area contains an inferred subeconomic resource totaling 13 million short tons. An inferred subeconomic resource of gold in 225 short tons of quartz having a grade of 0.01 8 troy ounces per short ton is present at the Cook mine, 0.5 miles west of the study area. The northwestern part of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area has high mineral resource potential for gold and silver. The south-central part of the study area has one area of moderate and one area north of this south-central part has low mineral resource potential for gold and silver in and near Warm Springs Canyon; the mineral resource potential for gold is also moderate in three small areas in the southern part and one area in the northeastern part of the study area. The mineral resource potential for zeolite is high for the area surrounding the McHeffy Butte prospect and for one area in the southern part of the study area. Two areas inside the south and southeast boundaries of the study area have high mineral resource potential for perlite. The potential for ka: olinite resources is moderate in two areas in the southern part of the study area. The southern part of the study area has low resource potential for perlite and zeolite. Geothermal energy resource potential of the study area is low. The study area has no resource potential for oil and gas.
Humidity does not appear to trigger leaf out in woody plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zipf, Lucy; Primack, Richard B.

2017-12-01

In order to anticipate the ecological impacts of climate change and model changes to forests, it is important to understand the factors controlling spring leaf out. Leaf out phenology in woody trees and shrubs is generally considered to be strongly controlled by a combination of spring warming, winter chilling requirement, and photoperiod. However, researchers have recently suggested that temperature-related air humidity, rather than temperature itself, might be the main trigger of the spring leaf-out of woody plants. Here, we sought to examine the relationship between air humidity and leaf-out across a range of humidities and plant functional groups. We did not find any consistent, measurable effect of high humidity advancing leaf-out in the 15 woody shrubs and trees examined in this study, and we did not see progressive patterns of earlier leaf-out in successively higher humidities. Our results indicate that more work must be done on this topic before researchers can properly determine the effect of humidity on the leafing out process for woody species.
Hood River Production Program Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) - Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs : Annual Report For Fiscal Year, October 2007 – September 2008.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerstenberger, Ryan

2009-07-27

This progress report describes work performed by the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs (CTWSRO) portion of the Hood River Production Program Monitoring and Evaluation Project (HRPP) during the 2008 fiscal year. A total of 64,736 hatchery winter steelhead, 12,108 hatchery summer steelhead, and 68,426 hatchery spring Chinook salmon smolts were acclimated and released in the Hood River basin during the spring. The HRPP exceeded program goals for a release of and 50,000 winter steelhead but fell short of the steelhead release goals of 30,000 summer steelhead and 75,000 spring Chinook in 2008. Passive Integrated Transponders (PIT) tags were implanted inmore » 6,652 hatchery winter steelhead, and 1,196 hatchery summer steelhead, to compare migratory attributes and survival rates of hatchery fish released into the Hood River. Water temperatures were recorded at six locations within the Hood River subbasin to monitor for compliance with Oregon Department of Environmental Quality water quality standards. A preseason spring Chinook salmon adult run forecast was generated, which predicted an abundant return adequate to meet escapement goal and brood stock needs. As a result the tribal and sport fisheries were opened. A tribal creel was conducted from May 22 to July 18 during which an estimated 172 spring Chinook were harvested. One hundred sixteen Spring Chinook salmon redds were observed and 72 carcasses were inspected on 19.4 miles of spawning grounds throughout the Hood River Basin during 2008. Annual salvage operations were completed in two irrigation canals resulting in the liberation of 1,641 fish back to the Hood River.« less
The Impact of Transported Pollution on Arctic Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, P.; Stohl, A.; Arneth, A.; Berntsen, T.; Burkhart, J. F.; Flanner, M. G.; Kupiainen, K.; Shepherd, M.; Shevchenko, V. P.; Skov, H.; Vestreng, V.

2011-12-01

Arctic temperatures have increased at almost twice the global average rate over the past 100 years. Warming in the Arctic has been accompanied by an earlier onset of spring melt, a lengthening of the melt season, changes in the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, and a decrease in sea ice extent. Short-lived, climate warming pollutants such as black carbon (BC) have recently gained attention as a target for immediate mitigation of Arctic warming in addition to reductions in long lived greenhouse gases. Model calculations indicate that BC increases surface temperatures within the Arctic primarily through deposition on snow and ice surfaces with a resulting decrease in surface albedo and increase in absorbed solar radiation. In 2009, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) established an Expert Group on BC with the goal of identifying source regions and energy sectors that have the largest impact on Arctic climate. Here we present the results of this work and investigate links between mid-latitude pollutants and Arctic climate.
Direct Contribution of the Stratosphere to Recent West Antarctic Warming in Austral Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.

2015-12-01

The causes of the rapid warming of West Antarctica in recent decades are not yet fully understood. Thus far, investigations of the phenomenon have emphasized the role of tropospheric teleconnections originating from the Tropics in austral winter, but have had less success in explaining the strong warming in austral spring (SON). Here, we further explore the mechanisms behind the SON warming by focusing on September, the month during which atmospheric temperature and circulation trends in and around West Antarctica largely account for the 3-month average SON trends. We show that the tropospheric trends toward lower pressures/heights (more cyclonic) over the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean previously reported extend vertically well into the stratosphere. In the lower troposphere, these circulation changes, by steering more warm air toward West Antarctica, have likely contributed to the warming of the region. In the stratosphere, we provide evidence that the cyclonic trends are associated with a very prominent stratospheric warming in the Australian sector, believed to be the result of increased tropically-forced planetary wave activity and wave breaking. Through thermal wind balance, this regional stratospheric warming has led to a poleward displacement of the polar-night jet south of Australia, leading to enhanced cyclonic motion and potential vorticity (PV) downwind over the Amundsen Sea region. Finally, we establish, through the PV inversion framework, a causal link between stratospheric and tropospheric changes, whereby large PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce consistent geopotential height anomalies down in the troposphere. Our results highlight not only the important and largely overlooked role played by the stratosphere in recent West Antarctic climate change, but also a new pathway for tropical climate variability to influence Antarctic climate.
Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-02-01

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over South China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over North China and Northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitationmore » (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming, but the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale.« less
Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Karen L.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2017-04-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a cooling of East Antarctica in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature trends over two distinct time periods (1960-2005 and 1979-2005), and with those simulated by 40 models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially between the two periods and, furthermore, that it is completely absent from the forced response seen in the CMIP5 multi-model mean, from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging. We also examine the relationship between the Southern Annular mode (SAM) and Antarctic temperature trends, in both models and reanalyses, and again conclude that there is little evidence of anthropogenic SAM-induced driving of the recent temperature trends. These results offer new, compelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.
Responses of two understory herbs, Maianthemum canadense and Eurybia macrophylla, to experimental forest warming: early emergence is the key to enhanced reproductive output.

PubMed

Jacques, Marie-Hélène; Lapointe, Line; Rice, Karen; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Stefanski, Artur; Reich, Peter B

2015-10-01

Understory herbs might be the most sensitive plant form to global warming in deciduous forests, yet they have been little studied in the context of climate change. A field experiment set up in Minnesota, United States simulated global warming in a forest setting and provided the opportunity to study the responses of Maianthemum canadense and Eurybia macrophylla in their natural environment in interaction with other components of the ecosystem. Effects of +1.7° and +3.4°C treatments on growth, reproduction, phenology, and gas exchange were evaluated along with treatment effects on light, water, and nutrient availability, potential drivers of herb responses. Overall, growth and gas exchanges of these two species were modestly affected by warming. They emerged up to 16 (E. macrophylla) to 17 d (M. canadense) earlier in the heated plots than in control plots, supporting early-season carbon gain under high light conditions before canopy closure. This additional carbon gain in spring likely supported reproduction. Eurybia macrophylla only flowered in the heated plots, and both species had some aspect of reproduction that was highest in the +1.7°C treatment. The reduced reproductive effort in the +3.4°C plots was likely due to reduced soil water availability, counteracting positive effects of warming. Global warming might improve fitness of herbaceous species in deciduous forests, mainly by advancing their spring emergence. However, other impacts of global warming such as drier soils in the summer might partly reduce the carbon gain associated with early emergence. © 2015 Botanical Society of America.
On the secular change of spring onset at Stockholm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng; Fu, Congbin; Wu, Zhaohua; Yan, Zhongwei

2009-06-01

A newly developed method, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, was applied to adaptively determine the timing of climatic spring onset from the daily temperature records at Stockholm during 1756-2000. Secular variations of spring onset and its relationships to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to the temperature variability were analyzed. A clear turning point of secular trend in spring onset around 1884/1885, from delaying to advancing, was found. The delaying trend of spring onset (6.9 days/century) during 1757-1884 and the advancing one (-7 days/century) during 1885-1999 were both significant. The winter NAO indices were found to be correlated with the spring onset at Stockholm at an inter-annual timescale only for some decades, but unable to explain the change of the long-term trends. The secular change from cooling to warming around the 1880s, especially in terms of spring temperature, might have led to the secular change of spring onset.

The seasonal cycle revisited: interannual variation and ecosystem consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, Douglas F.; Mackas, David L.; McKinnell, Stewart M.

The annual seasonal cycle accounts for much of the total temporal variability of mid- and high-latitude marine ecosystems. Although the general pattern of the seasons repeats each year, climatic variability of the atmosphere and the ocean produce detectable changes in intensity and onset timing. We use a combination of time series data from oceanographic, zooplankton and seabird breeding data to ask if and how these variations in the timing of the spring growing season affect marine populations. For the physical environment, we develop an annual index of spring timing by fitting a non-linear 2-parameter periodic function to the average weekly SST data observed in British Columbia from 1 January to the end of August each year. For each year, the phase parameter describes the timing of seasonal warming (the timing index) and the amplitude parameter describes the magnitude of the temperature increase between the fitted winter minimum and summer maximum. For the zooplankton, which have annual and strongly synchronous cycles of biomass, productivity, and developmental sequence, we use copepodite stage composition to index the timing of the annual maximum. For seabirds, we examine (1975-1999) the timing of hatching, nestling growth performance, and diet for four species of alcids at Triangle Island, British Columbia's largest seabird colony and the world's largest population of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet. Temperature, zooplankton, and seabirds have all shown recent decadal trends toward ‘earlier spring’, but the magnitudes of the timing perturbations have differed from variable to variable and from year to year. Recent (1996-1999) extreme interannual variation in spring timing and April SST helped to facilitate a mechanistic investigation of oceanographic features that affect the reproductive performance of seabirds. Our results demonstrate a significant negative relationship between the annual spring timing index (and April mean SST) and nestling growth rates for both Cassin's auklet and rhinoceros auklet. Nestling growth rates were significantly lower in early, warm years. We demonstrate that low growth rates of Cassin's auklet occurred when copepod composition in nestling diet was low overall and copepods were scarce or absent in samples collected later in the season. We propose that when spring is early and warm, the duration of overlap of seabird breeding and copepod availability in surface waters becomes reduced, effectively creating a seasonal mismatch of prey and predator populations. Such a mismatch could explain the reduced reproductive performance of seabirds compared to years when spring was later and colder. The relationships we develop here can be used as simple predictive models to examine the effects of ocean climate change on seabird reproductive performance within our region.
A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire.

PubMed

Larson, Christian D; Lehnhoff, Erik A; Rew, Lisa J

2017-12-01

Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.
Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the Southwestern U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiss, Jeremy L.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.

2012-01-01

Pronounced droughts during the 1950s and 2000s in the Southwestern U.S.A. (SW) provide an opportunity to compare mesoscale ecosystem responses to anomalously dry conditions before and during the regional warming that started in the late 1970s. This year-round warming has produced fewer cool season freezes, losses in regional snowpack, an 8-10 day advance in spring onset, and hotter summers, all of which should affect vegetation differently across seasons and elevations. Here, we examine indices that represent climatic limits on foliar growth for both drought periods, and evaluate these indices for areas that experienced tree mortality during the 2000s drought. Relative to the 1950s drought, warmer conditions during the 2000s drought decreased the occurrence of temperatures too low for foliar growth at lower elevations in winter and higher elevations in summer. Higher vapor pressure deficits (VPDs) largely driven by warmer temperatures in the more recent drought were more limiting to foliar growth from spring through summer at lower and middle elevations. At many locations where tree mortality occurred during the 2000s drought, low-temperature constraints on foliar growth were extremely unlimiting, whereas VPD constraints were extremely limiting from early spring through late autumn. Our analysis shows that in physiographically complex regions like the SW, seasonality and elevational gradients are important for understanding vegetative responses to warming. It also suggests that continued warming will increase the degree to which VPD limits foliar growth during future droughts, and expand its reach to higher elevations and other seasons.
Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration.

PubMed

Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich

2018-04-23

With lengthening growing seasons but increased temperature variability under climate change, frost damage to plants may remain a risk and could be exacerbated by poleward planting of warm-adapted seed sources. Here, we study cold adaptation of tree populations in a wide-ranging coniferous species in western North America to inform limits to seed transfer. Using tree-ring signatures of cold damage from common garden trials designed to study genetic population differentiation, we find opposing geographic clines for spring frost and fall frost damage. Provenances from northern regions are sensitive to spring frosts, while the more productive provenances from central and southern regions are more susceptible to fall frosts. Transferring the southern, warm-adapted genotypes northward causes a significant loss of growth and a permanent rank change after a spring frost event. We conclude that cold adaptation should remain an important consideration when implementing seed transfers designed to mitigate harmful effects of climate change.
Climatic effects of irrigation over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China simulated by the weather research and forecasting model: Simulated Irrigation Effects in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun

In this study, we apply the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with an operational-like irrigation scheme to investigate the climatic effects of irrigation over the Huang-Huai-Hai plain (3HP) in China. Multiple numerical experiments with irrigation off/on during spring, summer and both spring and summer are conducted, respectively. Our results show that the warm bias in surface temperature and dry bias in soil moisture are reduced over the 3HP region during growing seasons when irrigation is turned on in the model. Air temperature during non-growing seasons is also affected by irrigation due to the persistent effects of soil moisture onmore » land-air energy exchanges and ground heat storage. Irrigation can induce a cooler planetary boundary layer (PBL) during growing seasons, causing a wetter PBL with more low-level clouds during spring but relatively dryer PBL in summer. Further analyses indicate that the dryer summer is highly related to the changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation that is modified by irrigation effect. Spring irrigation may induce a decreased land-ocean thermal contrast, leading to a possible weaker EASM. Summer irrigation, however, evidently cools the atmosphere column and forces a southward shift of the upper-level jet, which results in more precipitation in Yangtze River basin but less over southern and northern China during summer.« less
Preliminary Evidence for the Amplification of Global Warming in Shallow, Intertidal Estuarine Waters.

PubMed

Oczkowski, Autumn; McKinney, Richard; Ayvazian, Suzanne; Hanson, Alana; Wigand, Cathleen; Markham, Erin

2015-01-01

Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. A recent survey and synthesis of data from four locations in Southern Rhode Island has led us to hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<1 m), nearshore portions of these estuaries. While intertidal areas are not typically selected as locations for long-term monitoring, we compiled data from published literature, theses, and reports that suggest that enhanced warming may be occurring, perhaps at rates three times higher than deeper estuarine waters. Warmer spring waters may be one of the factors influencing biota residing in intertidal regions both in general as well as at our specific sites. We observed greater abundance of fish, and size of Menidia sp., in recent (2010-2012) seine surveys compared to similar collections in 1962. While any linkages are speculative and data are preliminary, taken together they suggest that shallow intertidal portions of estuaries may be important places to look for the effects of climate change.
Effect of stock size, climate, predation, and trophic status on recruitment of alewives in Lake Ontario, 1978-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Gorman, Robert; Lantry, Brian F.; Schneider, Clifford P.

2004-01-01

The population of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario is of great concern to fishery managers because alewives are the principal prey of introduced salmonines and because alewives negatively influence many endemic fishes. We used spring bottom trawl catches of alewives to investigate the roles of stock size, climate, predation, and lake trophic status on recruitment of alewives to age 2 in Lake Ontario during 1978–2000. Climate was indexed from the temperature of water entering a south-shore municipal treatment plant, lake trophic status was indexed by the mean concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in surface water in spring, and predation was indexed by the product of the number of salmonines stocked and relative, first-year survival of Chinook salmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha. A Ricker-type parent–progeny model suggested that peak production of age-1 alewives could occur over a broad range of spawning stock sizes, and the fit of the model was improved most by the addition of terms for spring water temperature and winter duration. With the addition of the two climate terms, the Ricker model indicated that when water was relatively warm in spring and the winter was relatively short, peak potential production of young was nine times higher than when water temperature and winters were average, and 73 times higher than when water was cold in spring and winters were long. Relative survival from age 1 to recruitment at age 2 was best described by a multiple linear regression with terms for adult abundance, TP, and predation. Mean recruitment of age-2 fish in the 1978–1998 year-classes predicted by using the two models in sequence was only about 20% greater than the observed mean recruitment. Model estimates fit the measured data exceptionally well for all but the largest four year-classes, which suggests that the models will facilitate improvement in estimates of trophic transfer due to alewives.
An Ecohydraulic Model to Identify and Monitor Moapa Dace Habitat

PubMed Central

Hatten, James R.; Batt, Thomas R.; Scoppettone, Gary G.; Dixon, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) is a critically endangered thermophilic minnow native to the Muddy River ecosystem in southeastern Nevada, USA. Restricted to temperatures between 26.0 and 32.0°C, these fish are constrained to the upper two km of the Muddy River and several small tributaries fed by warm springs. Habitat alterations, nonnative species invasion, and water withdrawals during the 20th century resulted in a drastic decline in the dace population and in 1979 the Moapa Valley National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was created to protect them. The goal of our study was to determine the potential effects of reduced surface flows that might result from groundwater pumping or water diversions on Moapa dace habitat inside the Refuge. We accomplished our goal in several steps. First, we conducted snorkel surveys to determine the locations of Moapa dace on three warm-spring tributaries of the Muddy River. Second, we conducted hydraulic simulations over a range of flows with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Third, we developed a set of Moapa dace habitat models with logistic regression and a geographic information system. Fourth, we estimated Moapa dace habitat over a range of flows (plus or minus 30% of base flow). Our spatially explicit habitat models achieved classification accuracies between 85% and 91%, depending on the snorkel survey and creek. Water depth was the most significant covariate in our models, followed by substrate, Froude number, velocity, and water temperature. Hydraulic simulations showed 2–11% gains in dace habitat when flows were increased by 30%, and 8–32% losses when flows were reduced by 30%. To ensure the health and survival of Moapa dace and the Muddy River ecosystem, groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and diversions need to be carefully monitored, while fully implementing a proactive conservation strategy. PMID:23408999
An ecohydraulic model to identify and monitor moapa dace habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Batt, Thomas R.; Scoppettone, Gayton G.; Dixon, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) is a critically endangered thermophilic minnow native to the Muddy River ecosystem in southeastern Nevada, USA. Restricted to temperatures between 26.0 and 32.0°C, these fish are constrained to the upper two km of the Muddy River and several small tributaries fed by warm springs. Habitat alterations, nonnative species invasion, and water withdrawals during the 20th century resulted in a drastic decline in the dace population and in 1979 the Moapa Valley National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was created to protect them. The goal of our study was to determine the potential effects of reduced surface flows that might result from groundwater pumping or water diversions on Moapa dace habitat inside the Refuge. We accomplished our goal in several steps. First, we conducted snorkel surveys to determine the locations of Moapa dace on three warm-spring tributaries of the Muddy River. Second, we conducted hydraulic simulations over a range of flows with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Third, we developed a set of Moapa dace habitat models with logistic regression and a geographic information system. Fourth, we estimated Moapa dace habitat over a range of flows (plus or minus 30% of base flow). Our spatially explicit habitat models achieved classification accuracies between 85% and 91%, depending on the snorkel survey and creek. Water depth was the most significant covariate in our models, followed by substrate, Froude number, velocity, and water temperature. Hydraulic simulations showed 2-11% gains in dace habitat when flows were increased by 30%, and 8-32% losses when flows were reduced by 30%. To ensure the health and survival of Moapa dace and the Muddy River ecosystem, groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and diversions need to be carefully monitored, while fully implementing a proactive conservation strategy.
Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.
February precipitation in the wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca: is it a cue for migration onset?

PubMed

Aloni, Irith; Markman, Shai; Ziv, Yaron

2017-02-01

Numerous studies report shifts in bird migration phenology, presumably owing to global warming. However, most studies focus on migration patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated associations between weather conditions in African wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca, and spring arrival time in Eilat, Israel. Using multivariate regression models, we analysed a 30-year dataset in order to examine correlations between median springtime arrival and 46 climate variables of the wintering quarters. The model obtained exhibited a highly statistical fit, involving mean precipitation in February and March with negative effects and number of wet days during November-February. February precipitation levels were also the major factor associated with the interquartile range of arrival time. Interestingly and contrary to published results, annual or seasonal precipitation showed no correlation with spring arrival time, nor did temperature. Moreover, winter in this region falls into dry season with negligible rainfall quantities. Hence, it is unlikely that precipitation effect on habitat productivity is a driving force of migration, as suggested by other studies. Instead, we propose that precipitation in February acts as a cue for the birds, indicating the approach of spring and migration time.
Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice M.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.; Gomes, Júlio

1998-11-01

The impact of El Niño and La Niña events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events.The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year weaken and even reverse during the following January. The same tendency, though not so clear, is observable in the dry anomalies of cold events. The seasons of largest anomalies disclosed by this study differ from those found by previous global studies for other regions in southeastern South America.This study expands the area of consistent warm (cold) event-related precipitation defined by previous studies in southeastern South America by including a region of larger anomalies, and provides a spatial and temporal refinement to the warm (cold) event-precipitation relationship.
Distribution of Arctic and Pacific copepods and their habitat in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Hiroko; Matsuno, Kohei; Fujiwara, Amane; Onuka, Misaki; Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Ueno, Hiromichi; Watanuki, Yutaka; Kikuchi, Takashi

2016-08-01

The advection of warm Pacific water and the reduction in sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean may influence the abundance and distribution of copepods, a key component of food webs. To quantify the factors affecting the abundance of copepods in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas, we constructed habitat models explaining the spatial patterns of large and small Arctic and Pacific copepods separately. Copepods were sampled using NORPAC (North Pacific Standard) nets. The structures of water masses indexed by principle component analysis scores, satellite-derived timing of sea ice retreat, bottom depth and chlorophyll a concentration were integrated into generalized additive models as explanatory variables. The adequate models for all copepods exhibited clear continuous relationships between the abundance of copepods and the indexed water masses. Large Arctic copepods were abundant at stations where the bottom layer was saline; however they were scarce at stations where warm fresh water formed the upper layer. Small Arctic copepods were abundant at stations where the upper layer was warm and saline and the bottom layer was cold and highly saline. In contrast, Pacific copepods were abundant at stations where the Pacific-origin water mass was predominant (i.e. a warm, saline upper layer and saline and a highly saline bottom layer). All copepod groups showed a positive relationship with early sea ice retreat. Early sea ice retreat has been reported to initiate spring blooms in open water, allowing copepods to utilize more food while maintaining their high activity in warm water without sea ice and cold water. This finding indicates that early sea ice retreat has positive effects on the abundance of all copepod groups in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas, suggesting a change from a pelagic-benthic-type ecosystem to a pelagic-pelagic type.
The Impact Snow Albedo Feedback over Mountain Regions as Examined through High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Experiments over the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letcher, Theodore

As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo global warming (PGW) framework, which is an experimental configuration in a which a mean climate perturbation is added to the boundary forcing of a regional model, thus preserving the large-scale circulation entering the region through the model boundaries and isolating the mesoscale climate response. Using this framework, the impact of the SAF on the regional energetics and atmospheric dynamics is examined and quantified. Linear feedback analysis is used to quantify the strength of the SAF over the Headwaters region of the Colorado Rockies for a series of high-resolution PGW experiments. This technique is used to test sensitivity of the feedback strength to model resolution and land surface model. Over the Colorado Rockies, and integrated over the entire spring season, the SAF strength is largely insensitive to model resolution, however there are more substantial differences on the sub-seasonal (monthly) timescale. In contrast, the SAF strength over this region is very sensitive to choice of land surface model. These simulations are also used to investigate how spatial and diurnal variability in warming caused by the SAF influences the dynamics of thermally driven mountain-breeze circulations. It is shown that, the SAF causes stronger daytime mountain-breeze circulations by increasing the warming on the mountains slopes thus enhancing the thermal contrast between the mountain slopes and the surrounding lowlands which drives these wind systems. This analysis is extended to investigate the impacts that the SAF has on the large-scale mountain-plain circulation that develops east of the Rockies over the Great Plains. To help isolate the SAF, a more idealized regional climate experiment which isolates the SAF is performed. It was found that SAF may influence thermally driven atmospheric dynamics up-to 200km east of the Mountains where the SAF originates, suggesting broader regional impacts of the SAF which may not be well resolved by coarser resolution global climate models. The implications of these changes on pollution transport and moist convection are also explored using these simulations.
Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night-time warming in the Northern Hemisphere

DOE PAGES

Tan, Jianguang; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Anping; ...

2014-08-27

Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in themore » response of NDVI to changes in day- versus night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (T max) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between T max and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone – total area 12.6 × 10 6 km 2) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in T max, increases in T max tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (T min) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Lastly, understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to diurnal temperature changes, which have not been captured by current land surface models, is important for improving the performance of next generation regional and global coupled vegetation-climate models« less
Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers.

PubMed

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-04-05

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species' range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming.
Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-04-01

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species’ range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming.
Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

PubMed Central

Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. PMID:29099842
Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.
NGEE Arctic Zero Power Warming PhenoCamera Images, Barrow, Alaska, 2016

DOE Data Explorer

Shawn Serbin; Andrew McMahon; Keith Lewin; Kim Ely; Alistair Rogers

2016-11-14

StarDot NetCam SC pheno camera images collected from the top of the Barrow, BEO Sled Shed. The camera was installed to monitor the BNL TEST group's prototype ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2016 (including early spring and late fall). Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every 10 minutes and renamed with the date and time of the image. See associated data "Zero Power Warming (ZPW) Chamber Prototype Measurements, Barrow, Alaska, 2016" http://dx.doi.org/10.5440/1343066.

Application of the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to Fishery Resource Issues in the Klamath River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Sharon G.; Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John

2010-01-01

At the request of two offices of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) located in Yreka and Arcata, Calif., we applied the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to analyze a variety of water management concerns associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing of the Klamath hydropower projects or with ongoing management of anadromous fish stocks in the mainstem Klamath River, Oregon and California. Requested SIAM analyses include predicted effects of reservoir withdrawal elevations, use of full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoirs to augment spring flows, and predicted spawning and juvenile outmigration timing of fall Chinook salmon. In an effort to further refine the analysis of spring flow effects on predicted fall Chinook production, additional SIAM analyses were performed for predicted response to spring flow release variability from Iron Gate Dam, high and low pulse flow releases, the predicted effects of operational constraints for both Upper Klamath Lake water surface elevations, and projected flow releases specified in the Klamath Project 2006 Operations Plan (April 10, 2006). Results of SIAM simulations to determine flow and water temperature relationships indicate that up to 4 degrees C of thermal variability can be attributed to flow variations, but the effect is seasonal. Much more of thermal variability can be attributed to air temperature variations, up to 6 degrees C. Reservoirs affect the annual thermal signature by delaying spring warming by about 3 weeks and fall cooling by about 2 weeks. Multi-level release outlets on Iron Gate Dam would have limited utility; however, if releases are small (700 cfs) and a near-surface and bottom-level outlet could be blended, then water temperature may be reduced by 2-4 degrees C for a 4-week period during September. Using the full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoir, although feasible, had undesirable ramifications such as earlier spring warming, loss of hydropower production, and inability to re-fill the reservoirs without causing shortages elsewhere in the system. Altering spawning and outmigration timing may be important management objectives for the salmon fishery, but difficult to implement. SIAM predicted benefits that might occur if water temperature was cooler in fall and spring emergence was advanced; however, model simulations were based on purely arbitrary thermal reductions. Spring flow variability did indicate that juvenile fall Chinook rearing habitat was the major biological 'bottleneck' for year class success. Rearing habitat is maximal in a range between 4,500 and 5,500 cfs below Iron Gate Dam. These flow levels are not typically provided by Klamath River system operations, except in very wet years. The incremental spring flow analysis provided insight into when and how long a pulse flow should occur to provide predicted fall Chinook salmon production increases. In general, March 15th - April 30th of any year was the period for pulse flows and 4000 cfs was the target flow release that provided near-optimal juvenile rearing habitat. Again, competition for water resources in the Klamath River Basin may make implementation of pulsed flows difficult.
Spatial and temporal variability of organic C and N concentrations and export from 30 boreal rivers induced by land use and climate.

PubMed

Mattsson, Tuija; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Räike, Antti; Lepistö, Ahti; Thomas, David N

2015-03-01

Climate change scenarios for northern boreal regions indicate that there will be increasing temperature and precipitation, and the changes are expected to be larger in winter than in summer. These precipitation and discharge patterns, coupled with shorter ice cover/soil frost periods in the future would be expected to contribute significantly to changing flow paths of organic matter over a range of land use patterns. In order to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality of organic matter export we compared total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) concentrations and export, during different seasons and climatically different years, over 12 years for 30 Finnish rivers separated into forest, agriculture and peat dominated catchments. The mean monthly TOC concentrations were highest during autumn and there was also a peak in May during the highest flow period. The mean monthly concentrations of TON were lowest during winter, increased in spring and remaining high throughout summer and autumn. The TOC/TON ratios were lowest during summer and highest during winter, and in all seasons the ratios were lowest in catchments with a high proportion of agricultural land and highest in peat-dominated catchments. The seasonality of TOC and TON exports reflected geographical location, hydrology and land use patterns. Most of the TOC and TON were transported during the high flow following the spring snowmelt and during rainfall in autumn. In all catchments the relative importance of the spring snowmelt decreased in wet and warm years. However, in peat-dominated catchments the proportion of spring period was over 30% of the annual export even in these wet and warm years, while in other catchments the proportion was about 20%. This might be linked to the northern location of the peat-dominated catchments and the permanent snow cover and spring snowmelt, even in warm years. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

PubMed Central

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-01-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910–1930 to 1990–2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991–1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997–2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed ‘greening of the Arctic’ which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. PMID:25788025
Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century.

PubMed

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-06-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Influence of winter season climate variability on snow-precipitation ratio in the western United States

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Shraddhanand Shukla; Ivan Arismendi; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Anne Nolin

2015-01-01

In the western United States, climate warming poses a unique threat to water and snow hydrology because much of the snowpack accumulates at temperatures near 0 Â°C. As the climate continues to warm, much of the region's precipitation is expected to switch from snow to rain, causing flashier hydrographs, earlier inflow to reservoirs, and reduced spring and summer...
Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.
Dynamics behind warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea and its interruption based on in situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, Simi; Natesan, Usha; Latha, Ganesan; Venkatesan, Ramasamy

2018-05-01

A study of the inter-annual variability of the warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) during the spring transition months was carried out from 2013 to 2015 based on in situ data from moored buoys. An attempt was made to identify the roles of the different variables in the warming of the SEAS (e.g., net heat flux, advection, entrainment, and thickness of the barrier layer during the previous northeast monsoon season). The intense freshening of the SEAS (approximately 2 PSU) occurring in each December, together with the presence of a downwelling Rossby wave, supports the formation of a thick barrier layer during the northeast monsoon season. It is known that the barrier layer thickness, varying each year, plays a major role in the spring warming of the SEAS. Interestingly, an anomalously thick barrier layer occurred during the northeast monsoon season of 2012-2013. However, the highest sea surface temperature (31 °C) was recorded during the last week of April 2015, while the lowest sea surface temperature (29.7 °C) was recorded during the last week of May 2013. The mixed layer heat budget analysis during the spring transition months proved that the intense warming has been mainly supported by the net heat flux, not by other factors like advection and entrainment. The inter-annual variability analysis of the net heat flux and its components, averaged over a box region of the SEAS, showed a substantial latent heat flux release and a reduction in net shortwave radiation in 2013. Both factors contributed to the negative net heat flux. Strong breaks in the warming were also observed in May due to the entrainment of cold sub-surface waters. These events are associated with the cyclonic eddy persisting over the SEAS during the same time. The entrainment term, favoring the cooling, was stronger in 2015 than that in 2013 and 2014. The surface temperatures measured in 2013 were lower than those in 2014 and 2015 despite the presence of a thick barrier layer. The substantial decrease in net heat flux along with entrainment cooling has been identified as causes for this behavior.
Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric

2011-01-01

A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.
Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.
Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

PubMed

Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

2010-10-01

Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more frequent in some regions of the Arctic and that may ultimately drive plant community shifts. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2010.
Geologic Map of the Warm Spring Canyon Area, Death Valley National Park, Inyo County, California, With a Discussion of the Regional Significance of the Stratigraphy and Structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wrucke, Chester T.; Stone, Paul; Stevens, Calvin H.

2007-01-01

Warm Spring Canyon is located in the southeastern part of the Panamint Range in east-central California, 54 km south of Death Valley National Park headquarters at Furnace Creek Ranch. For the relatively small size of the area mapped (57 km2), an unusual variety of Proterozoic and Phanerozoic rocks is present. The outcrop distribution of these rocks largely resulted from movement on the east-west-striking, south-directed Butte Valley Thrust Fault of Jurassic age. The upper plate of the thrust fault comprises a basement of Paleoproterozoic schist and gneiss overlain by a thick sequence of Mesoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic rocks, the latter of which includes diamictite generally considered to be of glacial origin. The lower plate is composed of Devonian to Permian marine formations overlain by Jurassic volcanic and sedimentary rocks. Late Jurassic or Early Cretaceous plutons intrude rocks of the area, and one pluton intrudes the Butte Valley Thrust Fault. Low-angle detachment faults of presumed Tertiary age underlie large masses of Neoproterozoic dolomite in parts of the area. Movement on these faults predated emplacement of middle Miocene volcanic rocks in deep, east-striking paleovalleys. Excellent exposures of all the rocks and structural features in the area result from sparse vegetation in the dry desert climate and from deep erosion along Warm Spring Canyon and its tributaries.
Testing the metabolic theory of ecology with marine bacteria: different temperature sensitivity of major phylogenetic groups during the spring phytoplankton bloom.

PubMed

Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; G Morán, Xosé Anxelu

2017-11-01

Although temperature is a key driver of bacterioplankton metabolism, the effect of ocean warming on different bacterial phylogenetic groups remains unclear. Here, we conducted monthly short-term incubations with natural coastal bacterial communities over an annual cycle to test the effect of experimental temperature on the growth rates and carrying capacities of four phylogenetic groups: SAR11, Rhodobacteraceae, Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. SAR11 was the most abundant group year-round as analysed by CARD-FISH, with maximum abundances in summer, while the other taxa peaked in spring. All groups, including SAR11, showed high temperature-sensitivity of growth rates and/or carrying capacities in spring, under phytoplankton bloom or post-bloom conditions. In that season, Rhodobacteraceae showed the strongest temperature response in growth rates, estimated here as activation energy (E, 1.43 eV), suggesting an advantage to outcompete other groups under warmer conditions. In summer E values were in general lower than 0.65 eV, the value predicted by the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE). Contrary to MTE predictions, carrying capacity tended to increase with warming for all bacterial groups. Our analysis confirms that resource availability is key when addressing the temperature response of heterotrophic bacterioplankton. We further show that even under nutrient-sufficient conditions, warming differentially affected distinct bacterioplankton taxa. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richardson, Andrew D.

2015-11-25

The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digitalmore » cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.« less
Moisture-driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity.

PubMed

Ziaco, Emanuele; Truettner, Charles; Biondi, Franco; Bullock, Sarah

2018-04-01

Future seasonal dynamics of wood formation in hyperarid environments are still unclear. Although temperature-driven extension of the growing season and increased forest productivity are expected for boreal and temperate biomes under global warming, a similar trend remains questionable in water-limited regions. We monitored cambial activity in a montane stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from the Mojave Desert for 2 consecutive years (2015-2016) showing opposite-sign anomalies between warm- and cold-season precipitation. After the wet winter/spring of 2016, xylogenesis started 2 months earlier compared to 2015, characterized by abundant monsoonal (July-August) rainfall and hyperarid spring. Tree size did not influence the onset and ending of wood formation, highlighting a predominant climatic control over xylem phenological processes. Moisture conditions in the previous month, in particular soil water content and dew point, were the main drivers of cambial phenology. Latewood formation started roughly at the same time in both years; however, monsoonal precipitation triggered the formation of more false rings and density fluctuations in 2015. Because of uncertainties in future precipitation patterns simulated by global change models for the Southwestern United States, the dependency of P. ponderosa on seasonal moisture implies a greater conservation challenge than for species that respond mostly to temperature conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

2018-02-01

The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.
Enhanced growth of Juniperus thurifera under a warmer climate is explained by a positive carbon gain under cold and drought.

PubMed

Gimeno, Teresa E; Camarero, J Julio; Granda, Elena; Pías, Beatriz; Valladares, Fernando

2012-03-01

Juniperus thurifera L. is an endemic conifer of the western Mediterranean Basin where it is subjected to a severe climatic stress characterized by low winter temperatures and summer drought. Given the trend of increased warming-induced drought stress in this area and the climatic sensitivity of this species, we expect a negative impact of climate change on growth and ecophysiological performance of J. thurifera in the harsh environments where it dominates. To evaluate this, we measured long- and short-term radial growth using dendrochronology, photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in males, females and juveniles in three sites in Central Spain. Climate was monitored and completed with historical records. Mean annual temperature has increased +0.2 °C per decade in the study area, and the main warming trends corresponded to spring (+0.2 °C per decade) and summer (+0.3 °C per decade). Radial growth and maximum photosynthesis peaked in spring and autumn. Positive photosynthetic rates were maintained all year long, albeit at reduced rates in winter and summer. Radial growth was enhanced by wet conditions in the previous autumn and by warm springs and high precipitation in summer of the year of tree-ring formation. Cloud cover during the summer increased growth, while cloudy winters led to impaired carbon gain and reduced growth in the long term. We argue that maintenance of carbon gain under harsh conditions (low winter temperatures and dry summer months) and plastic xylogenesis underlie J. thurifera's ability to profit from changing climatic conditions such as earlier spring onset and erratic summer rainfall. Our results highlight that not only the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of climate change on growth and persistence of Mediterranean trees is species specific.
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.
Return of warm conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea: Physics to fluorescence

PubMed Central

Duffy-Anderson, J. T.; Eisner, L. B.; Farley, E. V.; Heintz, R. A.; Mordy, C. W.

2017-01-01

From 2007 to 2013, the southeastern Bering Sea was dominated by extensive sea ice and below-average ocean temperatures. In 2014 there was a shift to reduced sea ice on the southern shelf and above-average ocean temperatures. These conditions continued in 2015 and 2016. During these three years, the spring bloom at mooring site M4 (57.9°N, 168.9°W) occurred primarily in May, which is typical of years without sea ice. At mooring site M2 (56.9°N, 164.1°W) the spring bloom occurred earlier especially in 2016. Higher chlorophyll fluorescence was observed at M4 than at M2. In addition, these three warm years continued the pattern near St. Matthew Island of high concentrations (>1 μM) of nitrite occurring during summer in warm years. Historically, the dominant parameters controlling sea-ice extent are winds and air temperature, with the persistence of frigid, northerly winds in winter and spring resulting in extensive ice. After mid-March 2014 and 2016 there were no cold northerly or northeasterly winds. Cold northerly winds persisted into mid-April in 2015, but did not result in extensive sea ice south of 58°N. The apparent mechanism that helped limit ice on the southeastern shelf was the strong advection of warm water from the Gulf of Alaska through Unimak Pass. This pattern has been uncommon, occurring in only one other year (2003) in a 37-year record of estimated transport through Unimak Pass. During years with no sea ice on the southern shelf (e.g. 2001–2005, 2014–2016), the depth-averaged temperature there was correlated to the previous summers ocean temperature. PMID:28957386
Fluorescence measurements show stronger cold inhibition of photosynthetic light reactions in Scots pine compared to Norway spruce as well as during spring compared to autumn.

PubMed

Linkosalo, Tapio; Heikkinen, Juha; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Mäkipää, Raisa

2014-01-01

We studied the photosynthetic activity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst) in relation to air temperature changes from March 2013 to February 2014. We measured the chlorophyll fluorescence of approximately 50 trees of each species growing in southern Finland. Fluorescence was measured 1-3 times per week. We began by measuring shoots present in late winter (i.e., March 2013) before including new shoots once they started to elongate in spring. By July, when the spring shoots had achieved similar fluorescence levels to the older ones, we proceeded to measure the new shoots only. We analyzed the data by fitting a sigmoidal model containing four parameters to link sliding averages of temperature and fluorescence. A parameter defining the temperature range over which predicted fluorescence increased most rapidly was the most informative with in describing temperature dependence of fluorescence. The model generated similar fluorescence patterns for both species, but differences were observed for critical temperature and needle age. Down regulation of the light reaction was stronger in spring than in autumn. Pine showed more conservative control of the photosynthetic light reactions, which were activated later in spring and more readily attenuated in autumn. Under the assumption of a close correlation of fluorescence and photosynthesis, spruce should therefore benefit more than pine from the increased photosynthetic potential during warmer springs, but be more likely to suffer frost damage with a sudden cooling following a warm period. The winter of 2013-2014 was unusually mild and similar to future conditions predicted by global climate models. During the mild winter, the activity of photosynthetic light reactions of both conifers, especially spruce, remained high. Because light levels during winter are too low for photosynthesis, this activity may translate to a net carbon loss due to respiration.
Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Flanner, M G; Leung, Lai-Yung R

2011-03-02

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau in the world, has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. The snowpack and glaciers over the TP provide fresh water to billions of people in Asian countries, but the TP glaciers have been retreating extensively at a speed faster than any other part of the world. In this study a series of experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate black carbon (BC) and dust in snow and their radiative forcing and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic COmore » 2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow, respectively, on the snowpack over the TP, as well as their subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope, with concentration larger than 100 µk/kg. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative forcing induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to other snow-covered regions in the world. The aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative forcing of 5-25 W m -2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0°C averaged over the TP and reduces snowpack over the TP more than that induced by pre-industrial to present CO 2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere during spring. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1-4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO 2 increase during April-July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its dynamical and thermal forcing. During boreal spring, aerosols are transported by the southwesterly and reach the higher altitude and/or deposited in the snowpack over the TP. While BC and OM in the atmosphere directly absorb sunlight and warm the air, the darkened snow surface polluted by BC absorbs more solar radiation and increases the skin temperature, which warms the air above by the increased sensible heat flux over the TP. Both effects enhance the upward motion of air and spur deep convection along the TP during pre-monsoon season, resulting in earlier onset of the SAM and increase of moisture, cloudiness and convective precipitation over northern India. BC-in-snow has a more significant impact on the EAM in July than CO 2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. Contributed by the significant increase of both sensible heat flux associated with the warm skin temperature and latent heat flux associated with increased soil moisture with long memory, the role of the TP as a heat pump is elevated from spring through summer as the land-sea thermal contrast increases to strengthen the EAM. As a result, both southern China and northern China become wetter, but central China (i.e. Yangtze River Basin) becomes drier - a near zonal anomaly pattern that is consistent with the dominant mode of precipitation variability in East Asia.« less

Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde; Raga, Graciela B.

2017-12-01

In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980-2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980-2005, are projected by 2040-2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075-2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20-60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.
Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, N.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.

2017-04-01

The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100 hPa, is -4.4 ± 2.8 K decade-1, which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).
Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations of future changes in landfalling atmospheric rivers over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture inmore » the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.« less
Solid state engine with alternating motion

DOEpatents

Golestaneh, Ahmad A.

1982-01-01

Heat energy is converted to mechanical motion utilizing apparatus including a cylinder, a piston having openings therein reciprocable in the cylinder, inlet and outlet ports for warm water at one end of the cylinder, inlet and outlet ports for cool water at the other end of the cylinder, gates movable with the piston and slidably engaging the cylinder wall to alternately open and close the warm and cool water ports, a spring bearing against the warm water side of the piston and a double helix of a thermal shape memory material attached to the cool end of the cylinder and to the piston. The piston is caused to reciprocate by alternately admitting cool water and warm water to the cylinder.
Solid state engine with alternating motion

DOEpatents

Golestaneh, A.A.

1980-01-21

Heat energy is converted to mechanical motion utilizing apparatus including a cylinder, a piston having openings therein reciprocable in the cylinder, inlet and outlet ports for warm water at one end of the cylinder, inlet and outlet ports for cool water at the other end of the cylinder, gates movable with the piston and slidably engaging the cylinder wall to alternately open and close the warm and cool water ports, a spring bearing against the warm water side of the piston and a double helix of a thermal shape memory material attached to the cool end of the cylinder and to the piston. The piston is caused to reciprocate by alternately admitting cool water and warm water to the cylinder.
Ice Wedges as Winter Climate Archives - New Results from the Northeast Siberian Arctic and Discussion of the Paleoclimatic Value of Ice Wedges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opel, T.; Meyer, H.; Laepple, T.; Rehfeld, K.; Mollenhauer, G.; Alexander, D.; Murton, J.

2017-12-01

Arctic climate has experienced major changes over the past millennia that are yet not fully understood in terms of external and internal controls, spatial, temporal, and seasonal patterns. The interpretation of stable isotope data in permafrost ice wedges provides unique information on past winter climate, not or not sufficiently captured by other Arctic climate archives. Ice wedges grow in polygonal patterns owing to frost cracking of the frozen ground in winter and frost-crack filling mostly by snowmelt in spring. Their oxygen isotope values are indicative of temperatures in the cold period of the year (meteorological winter and spring). Recently, an ice-wedge record from the Lena River Delta suggested for the first time, that Siberian winter temperatures were warming throughout the Holocene, contradicting most other Arctic paleoclimate reconstructions. As this was based on a single record, the representativity and spatial extent of the reconstructed winter warming signal remained unclear. In this two-part contribution, we first present a new ice-wedge δ18O record from the Oyogos Yar mainland coast (Northeast Siberian Arctic) and then discuss more generally the paleoclimatic value of ice wedges. The new Oyogos Yar ice-wedge record is based on paired stable-isotope and radiocarbon-age data and spans the last two millennia. It confirms the long-term winter warming signal as well as the unprecedented temperature rise in the last decades. This demonstrates that winter warming over the last millennia is a coherent feature in the Northeastern Siberian Arctic, supporting the hypothesis of an insolation-driven seasonal Holocene temperature evolution followed by a strong warming most likely related to anthropogenic forcing. Considering additional ice-wedge data from the Siberian Laptev Sea region we discuss the paleoclimatic value of ice wedges as high-quality winter climate archive. We assess potentials and challenges of this so far rather understudied source of paleoclimate information that remains to be evaluated systematically. In addition, we outline priorities for future ice-wedge research in order to fully exploit the potential of ice wedges for paleoclimate reconstruction, including e.g. better process understanding, dating, and data-model comparison.
Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2015-01-01

In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.
Relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows in New England and implications for summer streamflows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2012-01-01

A period of much below normal streamflow in southern New England during April 2012 raised concerns that a long-term period of drought could evolve through late spring and summer, leading to potential water availability issues. To understand better the relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows, April streamflows from 31 streamflow gages in New England that drain relatively natural watersheds were tested for year-to-year correlation with winter precipitation and air temperature from nearby meteorological sites. Higher winter (December through March) precipitation is associated with higher April streamflows at many gages in northern and central New England. This implies that snowpack accumulation is an important mechanism for winter water storage and subsequently important for spring streamflows in this area. Higher March air temperatures are associated with lower April streamflows at many gages in central and southern New England, likely because the majority of snowmelt runoff occurs before April in warm years. A warm March 2012 contributed to early snowmelt runoff in New England and to much below normal April streamflows in southern New England. However, no strong relation was found between historical April streamflows and late-spring or summer streamflows in New England. The lack of a strong relation implies that summer precipitation, rather than spring conditions, controls summer streamflows.
Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

Treesearch

Kevin Ford; Connie Harrington; Sheel Bansal; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

2016-01-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm...
A century of changing flows: Forest management changed flow magnitudes and warming advanced the timing of flow in a southwestern US river

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The continued provision of water from rivers in the southwestern United States to downstream cities, natural communities and species is at risk due to higher temperatures and drought conditions in recent decades. Snowpack and snowfall levels have declined, snowmelt and peak spring flows are arriving earlier, and summer flows have declined. Concurrent to climate change and variation, a century of fire suppression has resulted in dramatic changes to forest conditions, and yet, few studies have focused on determining the degree to which changing forests have altered flows. In this study, we evaluated changes in flow, climate, and forest conditions in the Salt River in central Arizona from 1914–2012 to compare and evaluate the effects of changing forest conditions and temperatures on flows. After using linear regression models to remove the influence of precipitation and temperature, we estimated that annual flows declined by 8–29% from 1914–1963, coincident with a 2-fold increase in basal area, a 2-3-fold increase in canopy cover, and at least a 10-fold increase in forest density within ponderosa pine forests. Streamflow volumes declined by 37–56% in summer and fall months during this period. Declines in climate-adjusted flows reversed at mid-century when spring and annual flows increased by 10–31% from 1964–2012, perhaps due to more winter rainfall. Additionally, peak spring flows occurred about 12 days earlier in this period than in the previous period, coincident with winter and spring temperatures that increased by 1–2°C. While uncertainties remain, this study adds to the knowledge gained in other regions that forest change has had effects on flow that were on par with climate variability and, in the case of mid-century declines, well before the influence of anthropogenic warming. Current large-scale forest restoration projects hold some promise of recovering seasonal flows. PMID:29176868
Long-term climate impacts on breeding bird phenology in Pennsylvania, USA.

PubMed

McDermott, Molly E; DeGroote, Lucas W

2016-10-01

Climate change is influencing bird phenology worldwide, but we still lack information on how many species are responding over long temporal periods. We assessed how climate affected passerine reproductive timing and productivity at a constant effort mist-netting station in western Pennsylvania using a model comparison approach. Several lines of evidence point to the sensitivity of 21 breeding passerines to climate change over five decades. The trends for temperature and precipitation over 53 years were slightly positive due to intraseasonal variation, with the greatest temperature increases and precipitation declines in early spring. Regardless of broodedness, migration distance, or breeding season, 13 species hatched young earlier over time with most advancing >3 days per decade. Warm springs were associated with earlier captures of juveniles for 14 species, ranging from 1- to 3-day advancement for every 1 °C increase. This timing was less likely to be influenced by spring precipitation; nevertheless, higher rainfall was usually associated with later appearance of juveniles and breeding condition in females. Temperature and precipitation were positively related to productivity for seven and eleven species, respectively, with negative relations evident for six and eight species. We found that birds fledged young earlier with increasing spring temperatures, potentially benefiting some multibrooded species. Indeed, some extended the duration of breeding in these warm years. Yet, a few species fledged fewer juveniles in warmer and wetter seasons, indicating that expected future increases could be detrimental to locally breeding populations. Although there were no clear relationships between life history traits and breeding phenology, species-specific responses to climate found in our study provide novel insights into phenological flexibility in songbirds. Our research underscores the value of long-term monitoring studies and the importance of continuing constant effort sampling in the face of climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Trapp, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage. PMID:24062439
Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Scherer, Martin; Trapp, Robert J

2013-10-08

Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage.
Effects of Aerosol on Atmospheric Dynamics and Hydrologic Processes During Boreal Spring and Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Kim, K. M.; Chin, Mian

2005-01-01

Global and regional climate impacts of present-day aerosol loading during boreal spring are investigated using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). Three-dimensional distributions of loadings of five species of tropospheric aerosols, i.e., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt are prescribed from outputs of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol loadings are used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor at eleven spectral wavelengths in the radiative transfer code. We find that aerosol-radiative forcing during boreal spring excites a wavetrain-like pattern in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height that emanates from Northern Africa, through Eurasia, to northeastern Pacific. Associated with the teleconnection is strong surface cooling over regions with large aerosol loading, i.e., China, India, and Africa. Low-to-mid tropospheric heating due to shortwave absorption is found in regions with large loading of dust (Northern Africa, and central East Asia), and black carbon (South and East Asia). In addition pronounced surface cooling is found over the Caspian Sea and warming over Eurasian and northeastern Asia, where aerosol loadings are relatively low. These warming and cooling are components of teleconnection pattern produced primarily by atmospheric heating from absorbing aerosols, i.e., dust from North Africa and black carbon from South and East Asia. Effects of aerosols on atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the Asian monsoon region are also investigated. Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in an early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface tempera- cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.
Effects of Aerosol on Atmospheric Dynamics and Hydrologic Processes during Boreal Spring and Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Chin, Mian; Kim, K. M.

2005-01-01

Global and regional climate impacts of present-day aerosol loading during boreal spring are investigated using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). Three-dimensional distributions of loadings of five species of tropospheric aerosols, i.e., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt are prescribed from outputs of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol loadings are used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor at eleven spectral wavelengths in the radiative transfer code. We find that aerosol-radiative forcing during boreal spring excites a wavetrain-like pattern in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height that emanates from Northern Africa, through Eurasia, to northeastern Pacific. Associated with the teleconnection is strong surface cooling over regions with large aerosol loading, i.e., China, India, and Africa. Low-to-mid tropospheric heating due to shortwave absorption is found in regions with large loading of dust (Northern Africa, and central East Asia), and black carbon (South and East Asia). In addition pronounced surface cooling is found over the Caspian Sea and warming over Eurasian and northeastern Asia, where aerosol loadings are relatively low. These warming and cooling are components of teleconnection pattern produced primarily by atmospheric heating from absorbing aerosols, i.e., dust from North Africa and.black carbon from South and East Asia. Effects of aerosols on atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the Asian monsoon region are also investigated. Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in an early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Jianguang; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Anping

Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in themore » response of NDVI to changes in day- versus night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (T max) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between T max and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone – total area 12.6 × 10 6 km 2) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in T max, increases in T max tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (T min) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Lastly, understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to diurnal temperature changes, which have not been captured by current land surface models, is important for improving the performance of next generation regional and global coupled vegetation-climate models« less
Correlation between the silica concentration and the orifice temperature in the warm springs along the jordan-dead sea rift valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levitte, D.; Eckstein, Y.

1978-01-01

Analysis of twenty-one thermal springs emerging along the Jordan-Dead Sea Rift Valley in Israel indicates a very good correlation between the concentration of dissolved silica and the temperature of the spring orifice. Dissolution of quartz was identified as the apparent source of the silica in the water. Application of the silica geothermometer for mixed systems suggests that the springs in the Tiberias Lake Basin are supplied with hot water from deep reservoir (or reservoirs) at a temperature of 115??C (239??F). The same temperature was postulated earlier by the application of the Na-K-Ca hydro-geothermometer to a group of thermal springs in the same basin. The temperature of the reservoir supplying hot brines to the springs emerging along the western shore of the Dead Sea is estimated at 90??C (194??F).
The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

2017-02-01

The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.
Southern Hemisphere and deep-sea warming led deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and tropical warming.

PubMed

Stott, Lowell; Timmermann, Axel; Thunell, Robert

2007-10-19

Establishing what caused Earth's largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by approximately 2 degrees C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical-surface-ocean warming by approximately 1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming.
ncreasing altitudinal spring phenology gradient of vegetation over the last decade in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, M.; Piao, S.

2013-12-01

Vegetation spring phenology in temperate and cold regions is widely expected to advance with temperature elevation and is often used as an indicator of regional climatic change. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has experienced intensive warming recently, but substantial contradictions exist about the changes of vegetation spring phenology. We investigated spatiotemporal variations in green-up dates in the QTP from 2000 to 2011 determined through five methods using four satellite-derived datasets including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre, and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the enhanced vegetation index from MODIS. On regional scale, no significant temporal trends (all P > 0.05) were found in the green-up dates, consistently among all the vegetation indices and methods. This insignificance was resulted from the substantial spatial heterogeneity of trends in green-up date, with delay by greater than 0.5 day yr-1 in the southwest region, and extensive advance in the other areas, although the temperature elevation was region-wide. These changes doubled the altitudinal gradient of green-up date, from 0.63 day 100m-1 in the early 2000s to 1.30 days 100m-1 in the early 2010s. The delay in the southwest region and high altitudes was likely caused by the decline in spring precipitation, despite the increasing spring temperature. This study suggests that spring precipitation is an important regulator of phenological response to climatic warming in QTP, and that, even in cold region, delay of vegetation spring phenology does not necessarily indicate spring cooling. Besides, the phenological changes retrieved from the widely used AVHRR NDVI differed from those from the other 3 vegetation indices, necessitating the use of multi-datasets while monitoring vegetation dynamics from space.

Mountain-climbing bears protect cherry species from global warming through vertical seed dispersal.

PubMed

Naoe, Shoji; Tayasu, Ichiro; Sakai, Yoichiro; Masaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Kazuki; Nakajima, Akiko; Sato, Yoshikazu; Yamazaki, Koji; Kiyokawa, Hiroki; Koike, Shinsuke

2016-04-25

In a warming climate, temperature-sensitive plants must move toward colder areas, that is, higher latitude or altitude, by seed dispersal [1]. Considering that the temperature drop with increasing altitude (-0.65°C per 100 m altitude) is one hundred to a thousand times larger than that of the equivalent latitudinal distance [2], vertical seed dispersal is probably a key process for plant escape from warming temperatures. In fact, plant geographical distributions are tracking global warming altitudinally rather than latitudinally, and the extent of tracking is considered to be large in plants with better-dispersed traits (e.g., lighter seeds in wind-dispersed plants) [1]. However, no study has evaluated vertical seed dispersal itself due to technical difficulty or high cost. Here, we show using a stable oxygen isotope that black bears disperse seeds of wild cherry over several hundred meters vertically, and that the dispersal direction is heavily biased towards the mountain tops. Mountain climbing by bears following spring-to-summer plant phenology is likely the cause of this biased seed dispersal. These results suggest that spring- and summer-fruiting plants dispersed by animals may have high potential to escape global warming. Our results also indicate that the direction of vertical seed dispersal can be unexpectedly biased, and highlight the importance of considering seed dispersal direction to understand plant responses to past and future climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hot springs of the central Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mariner, R.H.; Presser, T.S.; Evans, William C.

1977-01-01

Thermal springs of the central Sierra Nevada issue dilute to slightly saline sodium chloride, sodium bicarbonate, or sodium mixed-anion waters ranging in pH from 6.4 to 9.3. The solubility of chalcedony appears to control the silica concentration in most of the spring waters. Fales Hot Springs may be associated with a higher temperature aquifer, 150 degrees Celsius or more, in which quartz is controlling the silica concentration. Carbon dioxide is the predominant gas escaping from Fales Hot Springs, the unnamed hot spring on the south side of Mono Lake, and the two thermal springs near Bridgeport. Most of the other thermal springs issue small amounts of gas consisting principally of nitrogen. Methane is the major component of the gas escaping from the unnamed spring on Paoha Island in Mono Lake. The deuterium and oxygen isotopic composition of most of the thermal waters are those expected for local meteoric water which has undergone minor water-rock reaction. The only exceptions are the hot spring on Paoha Island in Mono Lake and perhaps the unnamed warm spring (south side of Mono Lake) which issues mixtures of thermal water and saline lake water. (Woodard-USGS)
CO2 emissions from permafrost regions in Alaska during the nongrowing seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natali, S.; Risk, D. A.; Minions, C.; Ludwig, S.; Watts, J. D.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.; Jastrow, J. D.; Jorgenson, T.; Schade, J. D.

2017-12-01

Surface air temperatures in the Arctic have been increasing twice as fast as the global average, and climate models project that this rate of warming will continue through the century, with the greatest warming occurring during the winter months. An increase in wintertime temperature may reduce belowground carbon storage due to enhanced microbial respiration during the snow-covered period when plant carbon uptake has predominantly ceased. Carbon emissions during the nongrowing season (NGS: i.e., autumn, winter and spring) are an important component of annual respiratory loss, yet there are large uncertainties in local and regional estimates of NGS CO2 fluxes. To address these uncertainties, we established a network of automated soil respiration sensors that run throughout the year at 10 locations across AK, including several paired burned and unburned sites in tundra and boreal regions. We measured soil CO2 flux, soil temperature (15, 50, 100 cm), soil moisture, and snow depth throughout the NGS, and plant cover, stand density, organic layer depth and thaw depth, and we analyzed active layer soils for total C and N, and organic matter composition. During spring thaw, all sites exhibited a strong pulse of CO2, a result of physical release of CO2 produced during the NGS. CO2 flux rates during the spring thaw were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than winter CO2 fluxes and twice as high as fluxes during the early growing season. While temperature was a key driver of NGS fluxes across sites, our results suggest that soil organic matter content and composition were also important for NGS CO2 production. Despite warmer soils in burned spruce forests (Nome Creek, 2004 burn and Hess Creek, 2003 burn; 1-2 C warmer at 50-100 cm) compared to mature forests, NGS fluxes were either not significantly different or were higher in the mature stands than in burned stands, which may be a result of substrate limitation to NGS fluxes following fire. Quantifying the magnitude and drivers of NGS CO2 flux is critical for determining whether the Arctic is currently a source or sink for carbon and how this is likely to change as warming continues.
Synchrony in the phenology of a culturally iconic spring flower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, Tim H.; Mizera, Tadeusz; Wójtowicz, Wanda; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2012-03-01

We examine the flowering phenology of the cultural iconic Spring Snowflake Leucojum vernum, a considerable tourist attraction, recorded from two sites in western Poland. Flowering dates at the two sites were closely correlated but about 6 days later at the more natural area. The end of flowering was associated with the start of canopy leafing. Early flowering was related to a longer flowering season which may benefit ecotourism under future climate warming.
75 FR 30364 - Mt. Hood and Willamette National Forests, Oregon; Cascade Crossing Transmission Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-01

... Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) transmission lines through National Forest lands. The second alternative would follow the existing BPA transmission lines through the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs...
Geochemistry of ikaite formation at Mono Lake, California: Implications for the origin of tufa mounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Council, Todd C.; Bennett, Philip C.

1993-11-01

The mineral ikaite (CaCO3 ṡ 6H2O), not previously observed in lake environments, precipitates seasonally along the shore of Mono Lake, California, where Ca-HCO3 spring water mixes with cold Na-CO3 lake water. During the winter, cold water temperatures and high concentrations of PO43- and organic carbon inhibit calcite precipitation, allowing the metastable ikaite to form. During the spring warming, however, ikaite decomposes to form calcium carbonate and water, occasionally leaving pseudomorphs of the primary precipitate. The identification of modern ikaite suggests that both Pleistocene and Holocene tufas in the Mono basin originally precipitated as ikaite. This mineral may also form in other lake environments, but rapid recrystallization after warming destroys the physical, chemical, and isotopic evidence of formation, and alters the geochemical record.
Geo-electrical and geological strikes of the Mount Lamongan geothermal area, East Java, Indonesia – preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugraheni, L. R.; Niasari, S. W.; Nukman, M.

2018-04-01

Geothermal manifestations located in the Tiris, Mount Lamongan, Probolinggo, consist of warm springs. These warm springs have temperature from 35° until 45°C. Tiris fault has NW-SE dominant orientation, similar to some lineaments of maars and cinder cones around Mount Lamongan. The Mount Lamongan geothermal area is situated between Bromo and Argapura volcanoes. This study aims to map the geo-electrical and geological strikes in the study area. Phase tensor analysis has been performed in this study to determine geo-electrical strike of study area. Geological field campaign has been conducted to measure geological strikes. Then, orientation of geo-electrical strike was compared to geological strike. The result presents that the regional geological strike of study area is NW-SE while the orientation of geo-electrical strike is N-S.
Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

2010-01-01

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.
Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

2011-01-01

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.
Numerical Study on Interdecadal Modulations of ENSO-related Spring Rainfall over South China by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MAO, J.; WU, X.

2017-12-01

The spatio-temporal variations of eastern China spring rainfall are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of rain-gauge (gridded) precipitation datasets for the period 1958-2013 (1920-2013). The interannual variations of the first two leading EOF modes are linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with this linkage being modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The EOF1 mode, characterized by predominant rainfall anomalies from the Yangtze River to North China (YNC), is more likely associated with out-of-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during cold PDO (EN_CPDO) and La Niña during warm PDO (LN_WPDO)]. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions of EN_CPDO (LN_WPDO) events induce a significant anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the western North Pacific stretching northwards to the Korean Peninsula and southern Japan, resulting in anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) prevailing over eastern China and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over YNC. In contrast, EOF2 exhibits a dipole pattern with predominantly positive rainfall anomalies over southern China along with negative anomalies over YNC, which is more likely connected to in-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during warm PDO (EN_WPDO) and La Niña during cold PDO (LN_CPDO)]. EN_WPDO (LN_CPDO) events force a southwest-northeast oriented dipole-like circulation pattern leading to significant anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over southern China. Numerical experiments with the CAM5 model forced by the SSTA patterns of EN_WPDO and EN_CPDO events reproduce reasonably well the corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and spring rainfall modes over eastern China, validating the related mechanisms.
Microbial Diversity and Lipid Abundance in Microbial Mats from a Sulfidic, Saline, Warm Spring in Utah, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, J.; Edwardson, C.; Mackey, T. J.; Dzaugis, M.; Ibarra, Y.; Course 2012, G.; Frantz, C. M.; Osburn, M. R.; Hirst, M.; Williamson, C.; Hanselmann, K.; Caporaso, J.; Sessions, A. L.; Spear, J. R.

2012-12-01

The microbial diversity of Stinking Springs, a sulfidic, saline, warm spring northeast of the Great Salt Lake was investigated. The measured pH, temperature, salinity, and sulfide concentration along the flow path ranged from 6.64-7.77, 40-28° C, 2.9-2.2%, and 250 μM to negligible, respectively. Five sites were selected along the flow path and within each site microbial mats were dissected into depth profiles based on the color and texture of the mat layers. Genomic DNA was extracted from each layer, and the 16S rRNA gene was amplified and sequenced on the Roche 454 Titanium platform. Fatty acids were also extracted from the mat layers and analyzed by liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. The mats at Stinking Springs were classified into roughly two morphologies with respect to their spatial distribution: loose, sometimes floating mats proximal to the spring source; and thicker, well-laminated mats distal to the spring source. Loosely-laminated mats were found in turbulent stream flow environments, whereas well-laminated mats were common in less turbulent sheet flows. Phototrophs, sulfur oxidizers, sulfate reducers, methanogens, other bacteria and archaea were identified by 16S rRNA gene sequences. Diatoms, identified by microscopy and lipid analysis were found to increase in abundance with distance from the source. Methanogens were generally more abundant in deeper mat laminae. Photoheterotrophs were found in all mat layers. Microbial diversity increased significantly with depth at most sites. In addition, two distinct microbial streamers were identified and characterized at the two fast flowing sites. These two streamer varieties were dominated by either cyanobacteria or flavobacteria. Overall, our genomic and lipid analysis suggest that the physical and chemical environment is more predictive of the community composition than mat morphology. Site Map
The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

PubMed

Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

2018-07-01

The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.
Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers

PubMed Central

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-01-01

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species’ range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming. PMID:27044321
Seasonality of soil CO2 efflux in a temperate forest: Biophysical effects of snowpack and spring freeze–thaw cycles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chuankuan; Han, Yi; Chen, Jiquan

2013-08-15

Changes in characteristics of snowfall and spring freeze–thaw-cycle (FTC) events under the warming climate make it critical to understand biophysical controls on soil CO2 efflux (RS) in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems. We conducted a snow removal experiment and took year-round continuous automated measurements of RS, soil temperature (T5) and soil volumetric water content at the 5 cm depth (W5) with a half-hour interval in a Chinese temperate forest in 2010–2011. Our objectives were to: (1) develop statistical models to describe the seasonality of RS in this forest; (2) quantify the contribution of seasonal RS to the annual budget; (3) examine biophysicalmore » effects of snowpack on RS; and (4) test the hypothesis that an FTC-induced enhancement of RS is jointly driven by biological and physical processes.« less
Characterizing the long-range transport of black carbon aerosols during Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment.

PubMed

Verma, Sunita; Worden, John; Payra, Swagata; Jourdain, Line; Shim, Changsub

2009-07-01

A major aircraft experiment Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission over the NW Pacific in March-April 2001 was conducted to better understand how outflow from the Asian continent affects the composition of the global atmosphere. In this paper, a global climate model, GEOS-Chem is used to investigate possible black carbon aerosol contributions from TRACE-P region. Our result depicts that absorbing black carbon ("soot") significantly outflow during lifting to the free troposphere through warm conveyor belt and convection associated with this lifting. The GEOS-Chem simulation results show significant transport of black carbon aerosols from Asian regions to the Western Pacific region during the spring season. As estimated by GEOS-Chem simulations, approximately 25% of the black carbon concentrations over the western pacific originate from SE Asia in the spring.
Whole-stream metabolism of a perennial spring-fed aufeis field in Alaska, with coincident surface and subsurface flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrickson, P. J.; Gooseff, M. N.; Huryn, A. D.

2017-12-01

Aufeis (icings or naleds) are seasonal arctic and sub-arctic features that accumulate through repeated overflow and freeze events of river or spring discharge. Aufeis fields, defined as the substrate on which aufeis form and the overlaying ice, have been studied to mitigate impacts on engineering structures; however, ecological characteristics and functions of aufeis fields are poorly understood. The perennial springs that supply warm water to aufeis fields create unique fluvial habitats, and are thought to act as winter and summer oases for biota. To investigate ecosystem function, we measured whole-stream metabolism at the Kuparuk River Aufeis (North Slope, AK), a large ( 5 km2) field composed of cobble substrate and predominately subsurface flow dynamics. The single-station open channel diel oxygen method was utilized at several dissolved oxygen (DO) stations located within and downstream of the aufeis field. DO loggers were installed in August 2016, and data downloaded summer 2017. Daily ecosystem respiration (ER), gross primary production (GPP) and reaeration rates were modeled using BASE, a package freely available in the open-source software R. Preliminary results support net heterotrophy during a two-week period of DO measurements in the fall season when minimum ice extent is observed. GPP, ER, and net metabolism are greater at the upstream reach near the spring source (P/R = 0.53), and decrease as flow moves downstream. As flow exits the aufeis field, surface and subsurface flow are incorporated into the metabolism model, and indicate the stream system becomes dependent on autochthonous production (P/R = 0.91). Current work is directed towards spring and summer discharge and metabolic parameter estimation, which is associated with maximum ice extent and rapid melting of the aufeis feature.
25. INTERIOR VIEW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ROOM 109, THE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

25. INTERIOR VIEW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ROOM 109, THE WARM AND COLD STORAGE ROOM. - Nevada Test Site, Pluto Facility, Disassembly Building, Area 26, Wahmonie Flats, Cane Spring Road, Mercury, Nye County, NV
Prom Health and Safety Tips

MedlinePlus

... Halloween Prom Tips Spring Break Valentine Tips Winter Holiday Tips 12 Ways Holiday Song Healthy Living Check-Ups are Important Check- ... Test Wash Hands Stay Warm Have a Healthy Holiday Don’t Drink and Drive Widgets Healthy People ...
Regular Check-Ups Are Important

MedlinePlus

... Halloween Prom Tips Spring Break Valentine Tips Winter Holiday Tips 12 Ways Holiday Song Healthy Living Check-Ups are Important Check- ... Test Wash Hands Stay Warm Have a Healthy Holiday Don’t Drink and Drive Widgets Healthy People ...
Role of snow and glacier melt in controlling river hydrology in Liddar watershed (western Himalaya) under current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeelani, G.; Feddema, Johannes J.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.; Stearns, Leigh

2012-12-01

Snowmelt and icemelt are believed to be important regulators of seasonal discharge of Himalayan rivers. To analyze the long term contribution of snowmelt and glacier/icemelt to river hydrology we apply a water budget model to simulate hydrology of the Liddar watershed in the western Himalaya, India for the 20th century (1901-2010) and future IPCC A1B climate change scenario. Long term (1901-2010) temperature and precipitation data in this region show a warming trend (0.08°C yr-1) and an increase in precipitation (0.28 mm yr-1), with a significant variability in seasonal trends. In particular, winter months have undergone the most warming, along with a decrease in precipitation rates; precipitation has increased throughout the spring. These trends have accelerated the melting and rapid disappearance of snow, causing a seasonal redistribution in the availability of water. Our model results show that about 60% of the annual runoff of the Liddar watershed is contributed from the snowmelt, while only 2% is contributed from glacier ice. The climate trend observed from the 1901 to 2010 time period and its impact on the availability of water will become significantly worse under the IPCC climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that there is a significant shift in the timing and quantity of water runoff in this region of the Himalayas due to snow distribution and melt. With greatly increased spring runoff and its reductions in summer potentially leading to reduced water availability for irrigation agriculture in summer.

Chemical, isotopic, and gas compositions of selected thermal springs in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mariner, R.H.; Presser, T.S.; Evans, William C.

1977-01-01

Twenty-seven thermal springs in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah were sampled for detailed chemical and isotopic analysis. The springs issue sodium chloride, sodium bicarbonate, or sodium mixed-anion waters of near neutral (6.2) to alkaline (9.2) pH. High concentrations of fluoride, more than 8 milligrams per liter, occur in Arizona in waters from Gillard Hot Springs, Castle Hot Springs, and the unnamed spring of Eagle Creek, and in New Mexico from springs along the Gila River. Deuterium compositions of the thermal waters cover the same range as those expected for meteoric waters in the respective areas. The chemical compositions of the thermal waters indicate that Thermo Hot Springs in Utah and Gillard Hot Springs in Arizona represent hydrothermal systems which are at temperatures higher than 125 deg C. Estimates of subsurface temperature based on the quartz and Na-K-Ca geothermometer differ by up to 60 deg C for Monroe, Joseph, Red Hill, and Crater hot springs in Utah. Similar conflicting estimates of aquifer temperature occur for Verde Hot Springs, the springs near Clifton and Coolidge Dam, in Arizona; and the warm springs near San Ysidro, Radium Hot Springs, and San Francisco Hot Springs, in New Mexico. Such disparities could result from mixing, precipitation of calcium carbonate, or perhaps appreciable concentrations of magnesium. (Woodard-USGS)
Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

2013-12-01

Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern tropical Pacific SST as the high-frequency predictor and antecedent accumulated precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa as low-frequency predictors, the predicted seasonal dust activity over Saudi Arabia is well correlated with the original time series (correlation above 0.6).
Desynchronizations in bee-plant interactions cause severe fitness losses in solitary bees.

PubMed

Schenk, Mariela; Krauss, Jochen; Holzschuh, Andrea

2018-01-01

Global warming can disrupt mutualistic interactions between solitary bees and plants when increasing temperature differentially changes the timing of interacting partners. One possible scenario is for insect phenology to advance more rapidly than plant phenology. However, empirical evidence for fitness consequences due to temporal mismatches is lacking for pollinators and it remains unknown if bees have developed strategies to mitigate fitness losses following temporal mismatches. We tested the effect of temporal mismatches on the fitness of three spring-emerging solitary bee species, including one pollen specialist. Using flight cages, we simulated (i) a perfect synchronization (from a bee perspective): bees and flowers occur simultaneously, (ii) a mismatch of 3 days and (iii) a mismatch of 6 days, with bees occurring earlier than flowers in the latter two cases. A mismatch of 6 days caused severe fitness losses in all three bee species, as few bees survived without flowers. Females showed strongly reduced activity and reproductive output compared to synchronized bees. Fitness consequences of a 3-day mismatch were species-specific. Both the early-spring species Osmia cornuta and the mid-spring species Osmia bicornis produced the same number of brood cells after a mismatch of 3 days as under perfect synchronization. However, O. cornuta decreased the number of female offspring, whereas O. bicornis spread the brood cells over fewer nests, which may increase offspring mortality, e.g. due to parasitoids. The late-spring specialist Osmia brevicornis produced fewer brood cells even after a mismatch of 3 days. Additionally, our results suggest that fitness losses after temporal mismatches are higher during warm than cold springs, as the naturally occurring temperature variability revealed that warm temperatures during starvation decreased the survival rate of O. bicornis. We conclude that short temporal mismatches can cause clear fitness losses in solitary bees. Although our results suggest that bees have evolved species-specific strategies to mitigate fitness losses after temporal mismatches, the bees were not able to completely compensate for impacts on their fitness after temporal mismatches with their food resources. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.
Seasonally Distinct Reconstructions of Northern Alaskan Temperature Variability Since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, W. M.; Crowther, J.; Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Morrill, C.; Zhang, X.; Wang, X.; Huang, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions have provided little consensus on how continental temperatures in Eastern Beringia changed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present. Reconstructions show regional differences in LGM severity, the timing of deglacial warming, and Holocene temperature variability. Currently, arctic temperatures are increasing at the fastest rates on the planet, highlighting the need to identify the sensitivities of arctic systems to various climate forcings. This cannot be done without resolving the complex climate history of Eastern Beringia. Here, we present two new organic geochemical temperature reconstructions from Lake E5, north central Alaska that span the LGM, last glacial termination and Holocene. The proxies (alkenones and brGDGTs) record seasonally distinct temperatures, allowing for the attribution of different forcings to each proxy. The alkenone-based UK37 reconstruction records spring/early summer lake temperatures and indicates a 4 oC abrupt warming at 13.1 ka and a relatively warm late Holocene, which peaks at 2.4 ka and exhibits a cooling trend from 2.4 to 0.1 ka. The brGDGT reconstruction is calibrated to mean annual air temperature and interpreted here as exhibiting a strong warm season bias. BrGDGTs show an abrupt 4.5 oC warming at 14 ka, and show evidence for an early Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), which cools by 3 oC after 8.4 ka. Because UK37 temperatures do not exhibit an early HTM, we hypothesize that summer insolation had a minimal effect on spring/early summer lake temperatures. Instead, the UK37 reconstruction agrees with sea ice and sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and northeast Pacific Ocean. We hypothesize that forcings associated with sea ice concentration and changes in atmospheric circulation had stronger affects on spring/early summer lake temperatures and we present modern observational data in support of this hypothesis. By contrast, the summer-biased brGDGT reconstruction suggests a strong and relatively direct temperature response to summer insolation forcing. Together, these records suggest that both internal and external forcings significantly affected LGM to present temperature variability in Eastern Beringia, with different seasonal biases.
Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.
Lower Granite Dam Smolt Monitoring Program, 1998 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verhey, Peter; Ross, Doug; Morrill, Charles

1998-12-01

The 1998 fish collection season at Lower Granite was characterized by relatively moderate spring flows and spill, moderate levels of debris, cool spring, warm summer and fall water temperatures, and increased chinook numbers, particularly wild subyearling chinook collected and transported. The Fish Passage Center's Smolt Monitoring Program is designed to provide a consistent, real-time database on fish passage and document the migrational characteristics of the many stocks of salmon and steelhead in the Columbia Basin.
Arctic Haze: Natural or Pollution

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-08-01

rn wavelength, rs0o; precipitable water in g cm - , iv; Angstrom ~wavelength coefficient, a and column ozone in column cm (STP), 03. Left - Barrow...maximum of total ozone in the Arctic, but there is evidence at the same time of a depletion of surface ozone . 6. Spring is the time when the sun’s...chemical reactions due to high ozone concentrations. d. Association with dynamics of stratospheric warmings (that occur in mid-winter and spring). 6. Cosmic
Frost monitoring of fruit tree with satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Jinlong; Zhang, Mingwei; Cao, Guangzheng; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Liu, Chenchen; Niu, Xinzan; Xu, Wengbo

2012-09-01

The orchards are developing very fast in the northern China in recent years with the increasing demands on fruits in China. In most parts of the northern China, the risk of frost damage to fruit tree in early spring is potentially high under the background of global warming. The growing season comes earlier than it does in normal year due to the warm weather in earlier spring and the risk will be higher in this case. According to the reports, frost event in spring happens almost every year in Ningxia Region, China. In bad cases, late frosts in spring can be devastating all fruit. So lots of attention has been given to the study in monitoring, evaluating, preventing and mitigating frost. Two orchards in Ningxia, Taole and Jiaozishan orchards were selected as the study areas. MODIS data were used to monitor frost events in combination with minimum air temperature recorded at weather station. The paper presents the findings. The very good correlation was found between MODIS LST and minimum air temperature in Ningxia. Light, middle and severe frosts were captured in the study area by MODIS LST. The MODIS LST shows the spatial differences of temperature in the orchards. 10 frost events in April from 2000 to 2010 were captured by the satellite data. The monitoring information may be hours ahead circulated to the fruit farmers to prevent the damage and loss of fruit trees.
The role of life cycle processes on phytoplankton spring bloom composition: a modelling study applied to the Gulf of Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Soonmi; Hofmeister, Richard; Hense, Inga

2018-02-01

Diatoms are typical representatives of the spring bloom worldwide. In several parts of the Baltic Sea, however, cold-water dinoflagellates such as Biecheleria baltica have become dominant during the past decades. We have investigated the mechanisms behind this trend by using an ecosystem model which includes the life cycles of three main phytoplankton groups (diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria). Coupled to a water column model we have applied the model system for the period 1981-2010 to the Gulf of Finland. In agreement with observations, the model results show an increasing trend in the proportion of dinoflagellates in the Gulf of Finland. Temperature and life cycle-related processes explain the relative increase of dinoflagellates and corresponding decrease of diatoms. Warming over the 30 years has enabled a head start of dinoflagellates by reducing the time lag between germination and growth of vegetative cells. Although diatoms have a much higher growth rate, they cannot compete with the high dinoflagellate concentrations that result from the inoculum. Diatoms will only dominate in years when the inoculum concentrations of dinoflagellates or the temperatures are low. Overall, the model results suggest that consideration of life cycle dynamics of competing phytoplankton groups may be crucial to understand trends and shifts in community composition.
Dimethylsulfide model calibration and parametric sensitivity analysis for the Greenland Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Bo; Gabric, Albert J.; Zeng, Meifang; Xi, Jiaojiao; Jiang, Limei; Zhao, Li

2017-09-01

Sea-to-air fluxes of marine biogenic aerosols have the potential to modify cloud microphysics and regional radiative budgets, and thus moderate Earth's warming. Polar regions play a critical role in the evolution of global climate. In this work, we use a well-established biogeochemical model to simulate the DMS flux from the Greenland Sea (20°W-10°E and 70°N-80°N) for the period 2003-2004. Parameter sensitivity analysis is employed to identify the most sensitive parameters in the model. A genetic algorithm (GA) technique is used for DMS model parameter calibration. Data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive the DMS model under 4 × CO2 conditions. DMS flux under quadrupled CO2 levels increases more than 300% compared with late 20th century levels (1 × CO2). Reasons for the increase in DMS flux include changes in the ocean state-namely an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and loss of sea ice-and an increase in DMS transfer velocity, especially in spring and summer. Such a large increase in DMS flux could slow the rate of warming in the Arctic via radiative budget changes associated with DMS-derived aerosols.
Quiescent deformation of the Aniakchak Caldera, Alaska mapped by InSAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kwoun, Oh-Ig; Lu, Zhong; Neal, Christina; Wicks, Charles W.

2006-01-01

The 10-km-wide caldera of the historically active Aniakchak volcano, Alaska, subsides ∼13 mm/yr, based on data from 19 European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1 and ERS-2) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images from 1992 through 2002. The pattern of subsidence does not reflect the distribution of pyroclastic deposits from the last eruption in 1931 and therefore is not related to compaction of fragmental debris. Weighted least-squares inversion of the deformation maps indicates a relatively constant subsidence rate. Modeling the deformation with a Mogi point source locates the source of subsidence at ∼4 km below the central caldera floor, which is consistent with the inferred depth of magma storage before the 1931 eruption. Magmatic CO2 and He have been measured at a warm soda spring within the caldera, and several sub-boiling fumaroles persist elsewhere in the caldera. These observations suggest that recent subsidence can be explained by the cooling or degassing of a shallow magma body (∼4 km deep), and/or the reduction of the pore-fluid pressure of a cooling hydrothermal system. Ongoing deformation of the volcano detected by InSAR, in combination with magmatic gas output from at least one warm spring, and infrequent low-level bursts of seismicity below the caldera, indicate that the volcanic system is still active and requires close attention for the timely detection of possible hazards.
Phenology of lilac (Syringa vulgaris) and elderberry (Sambucus nigra) as the indicator of spring warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincze, E.; Hunkár, M.; Dunkel, Z.

2012-04-01

Phenological observations in Hungary started in 1871. The observation system collapsed and revived time by time. The aim of the observations as well as the locations, the methods and observed plants have been changed many times, therefore data series for a given plant species derived from the same place are rare. If we want to study the responses of biosphere to climate variability we need long time data series from the same places, especially phenological data of native plants. Phenological observations organized by the Hungarian Meteorological Service between 1983- 1999 contain valuable data for lilac (Syringa vulgaris) and elderberry (Sambucus nigra). Those perennial native plants are good indicators of spring warming therefore it is worth to study their phenological development concerning to climate variability. Eight locations in Hungary were selected where the site of the observations remaind the same year by year. Observed phenological phases were: Sprouting of leaves (SL, BBCH:11); Begin of Flowers (BF, BBCH:61); Fall of leaves (FO, BBCH:95). Spatial and temporal trends and variability of phenophases will be presented. The effect of meteorological conditions is studied to build up phenological model controlled by the temperature. Growing degree days above the base temperature was involved together with the duration and severeness of the chilling period. The study is supported by the National Scientific Foundation (OTKA-81979).
The influence of changing seasonality and snow cover on arctic ground squirrel phenology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, B.; Sheriff, M.; Kenagy, J.; Buck, L.; Team Squirrel

2011-12-01

A warming climate in the Arctic may have asymmetrical effects on seasonality, depending on the timing and extent of snow cover. Warm autumns that delay the onset of persistent snow cover will lengthen growing seasons of some plants and, combined with continuing access to fallen seeds, berries, and leaves, extend feeding opportunities for ground foragers. Warming in spring should advance when the ground becomes snow free and the onset of plant productivity, leading overall to a longer growing season. However, if winter and spring precipitation increase, as is predicted in climate models, the amount and seasonal extent of snow pack will increase, which will delay melt and lead to delayed springs. Either of these scenarios may develop regionally, depending on local weather, snow, and wind. Since 1996, we have been investigating the timing of annual events in natural populations of arctic ground squirrels, Urocitellus parryii, living at two nearby sites (Toolik and Atigun, 68o38'N) in arctic Alaska that greatly differ in timing and duration of snow cover. Since arctic ground squirrels are highly dependent on snow free ground for foraging, we predicted that these environmental differences will have had major impacts on life histories and timing of annual events on the local populations. Precision in dates of the beginning and end of hibernation, use of heterothermy, and birth of young were determined by temperature-sensitive data loggers implanted into juvenile and adult animals of both sexes. Weather stations, snow cameras, and transects for plant phenology are in place at both locations, although record lengths differ. While across the past 15 years annual timing of hibernation and breeding has not shown significant trends at either site, the two populations have differed consistently in hibernation timing and length of active season, and they show a 13 day difference in average timing of reproduction. These results reveal a substantial flexibility of timing of the annual cycle in ground squirrel populations in response to local conditions. Current trends of change in weather show an increase in active season temperatures at Atigun but snowier springs at Toolik. We predict that if these trends continue, further separation in annual timing will develop between the two populations with negative impacts on survival and population density at Toolik and positive impacts at Atigun. In addition, to test for the pace of additional flexibility and gender specific differences in annual timing, we have begun a food addition experiment at Atigun that extends foraging opportunities in autumn.
New insights on plant phenological response to temperature revealed from long-term widespread observations in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Haicheng; Liu, Shuguang; Regnier, Pierre; Yuan, Wenping

2018-05-01

Constraints of temperature on spring plant phenology are closely related to plant growth, vegetation dynamics, and ecosystem carbon cycle. However, the effects of temperature on leaf onset, especially for winter chilling, are still not well understood. Using long-term, widespread in situ phenology observations collected over China for multiple plant species, this study analyzes the quantitative response of leaf onset to temperature, and compares empirical findings with existing theories and modeling approaches, as implemented in 18 phenology algorithms. Results show that the growing degree days (GDD) required for leaf onset vary distinctly among plant species and geographical locations as well as at organizational levels (species and community), pointing to diverse adaptation strategies. Chilling durations (CHD) needed for releasing bud dormancy decline monotonously from cold to warm areas with very limited interspecies variations. Results also reveal that winter chilling is a crucial component of phenology models, and its effect is better captured with an index that accounts for the inhomogeneous effectiveness of low temperature to chilling rate than with the conventional CHD index. The impact of spring warming on leaf onset is nonlinear, better represented by a logistical function of temperature than by the linear function currently implemented in biosphere models. The optimized base temperatures for thermal accumulation and the optimal chilling temperatures are species-dependent and average at 6.9 and 0.2°C, respectively. Overall, plants' chilling requirement is not a constant, and more chilling generally results in less requirement of thermal accumulation for leaf onset. Our results clearly demonstrate multiple deficiencies of the parameters (e.g., base temperature) and algorithms (e.g., method for calculating GDD) in conventional phenology models to represent leaf onset. Therefore, this study not only advances our mechanistic and quantitative understanding of temperature controls on leaf onset but also provides critical information for improving existing phenology models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The Response of the North Atlantic Bloom to NAO Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mizoguchi, Ken-Ichi; Worthen, Denise L.; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Gregg, Watson W.

2004-01-01

Results from the climatologically forced coupled ice/ocean/biogeochemical model that covers the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans are presented and compared to the chlorophyll fields of satellite-derived ocean color measurements. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the interactions among four phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) and four nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, silicate and dissolved iron). The model simulates the general large-scale pattern in April, May and June, when compared to both satellite-derived and in situ observations. The subpolar North Atlantic was cool in the 1980s and warm in the latter 1990s, corresponding to the CZCS and SeaWiFS satellite observing periods, respectively. The oceanographic conditions during these periods resemble the typical subpolar upper ocean response to the NAO+ and NAO-phases, respectively. Thus, we use the atmospheric forcing composites from the two NAO phases to simulate the variability of the mid-ocean bloom during the satellite observing periods. The model results show that when the subpolar North Atlantic is cool, the NAO+ case, more nutrients are available in early spring than when the North Atlantic is warm, the NAO-case. However, the NAO+ simulation produces a later bloom than the NAO-simulation. This difference in the bloom times is also identified in SeaWiFS and CZCS satellite measurements. In the model results, we can trace the difference to the early diatom bloom due to a warmer upper ocean. The higher nutrient abundance in the NAO+ case did not provide larger total production than in the NAO- case, instead the two cases had a comparable area averaged amplitude. This leads us to conclude that in the subpolar North Atlantic, the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom depends on surface temperature and the magnitude of the bloom is not significantly impacted by the nutrient abundance.
The Dominant Snow-forming Process in Warm and Cold Mixed-phase Orographic Clouds: Effects of Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Ice Nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.

2014-12-01

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring from long-range transport can be efficient ice nuclei (IN) and enhance snow precipitation in mixed-phase orographic clouds. On the other hand, local pollution particles can serve as good CCN and suppress warm rain, but their impacts on cold rain processes are uncertain. The main snow-forming mechanism in warm and cold mixed-phase orographic clouds (refer to as WMOC and CMOC, respectively) could be very different, leading to different precipitation response to CCN and IN. We have conducted 1-km resolution model simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model for WMOC and CMOC cases from CalWater2011. We investigated the response of cloud microphysical processes and precipitation to CCN and IN with extremely low to extremely high concentrations using ice nucleation parameterizations that connect with dust and implemented based on observational evidences. We find that riming is the dominant process for producing snow in WMOC while deposition plays a more important role than riming in CMOC. Increasing IN leads to much more snow precipitation mainly due to an increase of deposition in CMOC and increased rimming in WMOC. Increasing CCN decreases precipitation in WMOC by efficiently suppressing warm rain, although snow is increased. In CMOC where cold rain dominates, increasing CCN significantly increases snow, leading to a net increase in precipitation. The sensitivity of supercooled liquid to CCN and IN has also been analyzed. The mechanism for the increased snow by CCN and caveats due to uncertainties in ice nucleation parameterizations will be discussed.
A case for ancient springs in Arabia Terra, Mars.

PubMed

Allen, Carlton C; Oehler, Dorothy Z

2008-12-01

Based on new image data from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), a case can be made that several structures in Vernal Crater, Arabia Terra are ancient springs. This interpretation is based on comprehensive geomorphologic analysis coupled with assessment of multiple hypotheses. The structures identified extend across several kilometers and are exceptional in that nothing with their detail and scale has been reported from Mars. The deposits are associated with an extensive fracture system that may have facilitated upward flow of warm fluids. Several additional spring-like features occur in Vernal Crater, and it is possible that these are part of a major province of spring activity. Since springs are environments where life could have evolved on Mars, where that life could have found refuge as the climate became colder and drier, and where signatures of that life may be preserved, Vernal Crater may be a site of major astrobiological importance.
78 FR 58534 - Warm Springs Irrigation District; Notice of Technical Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-24

... confertiflora requested by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management on June 7, 2013; the coordination of the National... Agenda: 1. Introduction. 2. Meeting objectives. 3. Plant survey discussion. 4. NEPA coordination. 5...
Families with Special Needs: Caregiving Tips

MedlinePlus

... Halloween Prom Tips Spring Break Valentine Tips Winter Holiday Tips 12 Ways Holiday Song Healthy Living Check-Ups are Important Check- ... Test Wash Hands Stay Warm Have a Healthy Holiday Don’t Drink and Drive Widgets Healthy People ...
Sensitivity of Net Ecosystem Exchange to Climate Variability Depends on Plant Functional Type in Boreal Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welp, L. R.; Liu, H.; Randerson, J. T.

2005-12-01

Recent increases in growing season length at high northern latitudes may allow for greater rates of photosynthesis and carbon accumulation during spring and summer. However, warmer air and soil temperatures may also stimulate higher rates of respiration in boreal and arctic ecosystems. The net effect of these different processes on biome-level carbon fluxes remains challenging to predict. We measured carbon fluxes in three interior Alaskan stands for three years (2002-2004) to test the hypothesis that NEE in early and mid successional ecosystems is more sensitive to climate variability than NEE of older, mature ecosystems. The stands represented a chronosequence of recovery after fire with burn events in 1920 (black spruce and moss), 1987 (aspen and willow) and 1999 (grasses and deciduous shrubs). In 2002, the region experienced a cool, moderately wet spring and wet summer. In contrast, 2003 had a warm, dry spring and dry summer. In 2004, the spring was the warmest and wettest of all three years and a severe summer drought followed. Spring air temperature increased during each year of the study with April-May means of 6.4°C in 2002, 7.7°C in 2003 and 9.9°C in 2004. In each stand, warmer spring temperatures increased spring GPP, as has been reported for other northern forests, and also led to increased carbon uptake at the aspen stand with May-June NEE values of -72, -106 and -138 g C m-2. In contrast, May-June NEE at the black spruce stand increased from -94 g C m-2 in 2002 to -110 g C m-2 in 2003, but returned to -96 g C m-2 in 2004 as Re increased in response to warmer soil temperatures during that year. Sensitivity of spring NEE to climate variability was greatest at the intermediate aged aspen stand. Using a simple atmospheric model, we also found that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 was more sensitive to climate variability when forced with fluxes from the aspen stand than from the black spruce stand. During each year, we observed mid-summer depressions of carbon uptake rates at the black spruce stand. Despite the 2004 summer drought, Jul-Aug GPP and Re both increased in 2004, resulting in Jul-Aug NEE values comparable to 2003 (-57 and -59 g C m-2 for the black spruce in 2003 and 2004 respectively and -124 and -120 g C m-2 for the aspen), both of which were less than the wet cool summer of 2002 (-76 g C m-2 for the black spruce and -156 g C m-2 for the aspen). Warm springs and cool summers tended to promote carbon uptake in these ecosystems.

Winter-spring anomalies in stratospheric O3 and NO2 contents over the Moscow region in 2010 and 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.; Kropotkina, E. P.; Solomonov, S. V.; Elokhov, A. S.

2017-03-01

Using results of ground-based spectrometric measurements, we analyze the anomalies in the stratospheric contents of O3 and NO2 in the Moscow region related to the sudden stratospheric warming and associated distortion of the stratospheric circumpolar vortex in early February 2010 and to the latitudinal displacement of the vortex towards the European sector in late March 2011 before the final spring warming. In the former case, the O3 concentration increased up to 85% and the stratospheric column NO2 content increased twice; in the latter case, the O3 concentration decreased by a quarter and the NO2 content decreased twice in comparison with average values for the time periods preceding the onsets of the anomalies. Estimates of the statistical correlationship of the stratospheric O3 and NO2 contents with potential vorticity and geopotential have been obtained.
Race and the politics of polio: Warm Springs, Tuskegee, and the March of Dimes.

PubMed

Rogers, Naomi

2007-05-01

The Tuskegee Institute opened a polio center in 1941, funded by the March of Dimes. The center's founding was the result of a new visibility of Black polio survivors and the growing political embarrassment around the policy of the Georgia Warm Springs polio rehabilitation center, which Franklin Roosevelt had founded in the 1920s before he became president and which had maintained a Whites-only policy of admission. This policy, reflecting the ubiquitous norm of race-segregated health facilities of the era, was also sustained by a persuasive scientific argument about polio itself: that Blacks were not susceptible to the disease. After a decade of civil rights activism, this notion of polio as a White disease was challenged, and Black health professionals, emboldened by a new integrationist epidemiology, demanded that in polio, as in American medicine at large, health care should be provided regardless of race, color, or creed.
Advances and Environmental Conditions of Spring Migration Phenology of American White Pelicans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. Tommy; Wang, Guiming; Yang, Zhiqiang; Fischer, Justin W.

2017-01-01

Spring migration phenology of birds has advanced under warming climate. Migration timing of short-distance migrants is believed to be responsive to environmental changes primarily under exogenous control. However, understanding the ecological causes of the advancement in avian spring migration phenology is still a challenge due to the lack of long-term precise location data. We used 11 years of Global Positioning System relocation data to determine four different migration dates of the annual migration cycle of the American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos), a short-distance migrant. We also tested the hypothesis that increases in winter temperature and precipitation on the wintering grounds would advance pelican spring migration. Pelican spring departures and arrivals advanced steadily from 2002 to 2011. Spring departure timing exhibited high repeatability at the upper end of migration timing repeatability reported in literature. However, individual spring departure and arrival dates were not related to winter daily temperature, total winter precipitation, and detrended vegetation green-up dates indexed by the normalized difference vegetation index. Despite high repeatability, the observed between-year variation of spring departure dates was still sufficient for the advancement of spring departure timing.
Advances and Environmental Conditions of Spring Migration Phenology of American White Pelicans.

PubMed

King, D Tommy; Wang, Guiming; Yang, Zhiqiang; Fischer, Justin W

2017-01-16

Spring migration phenology of birds has advanced under warming climate. Migration timing of short-distance migrants is believed to be responsive to environmental changes primarily under exogenous control. However, understanding the ecological causes of the advancement in avian spring migration phenology is still a challenge due to the lack of long-term precise location data. We used 11 years of Global Positioning System relocation data to determine four different migration dates of the annual migration cycle of the American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos), a short-distance migrant. We also tested the hypothesis that increases in winter temperature and precipitation on the wintering grounds would advance pelican spring migration. Pelican spring departures and arrivals advanced steadily from 2002 to 2011. Spring departure timing exhibited high repeatability at the upper end of migration timing repeatability reported in literature. However, individual spring departure and arrival dates were not related to winter daily temperature, total winter precipitation, and detrended vegetation green-up dates indexed by the normalized difference vegetation index. Despite high repeatability, the observed between-year variation of spring departure dates was still sufficient for the advancement of spring departure timing.
Harmful Algal Bloom Hotspots Really Are Hot: A Case Study from Monterey Bay, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudela, R. M.; Anderson, C.; Birch, J. M.; Bowers, H.; Caron, D. A.; Chao, Y.; Doucette, G.; Farrara, J. D.; Gellene, A. G.; Negrey, K.; Howard, M. D.; Ryan, J. P.; Scholin, C. A.; Smith, J.; Sukhatme, G.

2015-12-01

Monterey Bay, California is one of several recognized hotspots for harmful algal blooms along the US west coast, particularly for the toxigenic diatom Pseudo-nitzschia, which produces domoic acid and is responsible for Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning. Historical observations have linked bloom activity to anomalously warm conditions with weak and sporadic upwelling. In particular, blooms appear to be associated with El Niño conditions. Monterey, as with much of the US west coast, experienced unusual warm conditions in spring and summer 2014, leading to multiple ecosystem effects including massive algal blooms, concentration of apex predators nearshore, and unusually high levels of domoic acid. As the warm anomalies continued and strengthened into 2015, Monterey (and much of the west coast) has been experiencing the largest and most toxic algal bloom recorded in the last 15 years, as well as unprecedented coccolithophore blooms associated with warm, nutrient-depleted waters. With the strengthening El Niño conditions developing in summer 2015, it is possible that 2016 will result in a third consecutive year of unusually toxic algal blooms. Using a combination of historical observations, intensive field studies, and predictive models we explore the hypothesis that these warm anomalies lead to shifts in the typical upwelling-dominated food web leading to a collapse of the ecosystem towards the coast, unusual algal blooms, and enhanced trophic transfer of toxins, resulting in magnified negative impacts to wildlife and, potentially, humans.
Environmental factors affecting the strength of walleye (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) year-classes in western Lake Erie, 1960-70

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busch, Wolf-Dieter N.; Scholl, Russell L.; Hartman, Wilbur L.

1975-01-01

Commercial production of walleyes (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) from western Lake Erie declined from 5.9 million pounds in 1956 to 140,000 pounds by 1969. Since 1956, marked irregularity in year-class success has developed. Only four year-classes were considered good during 1959–70. The rate and regularity of water warming during the spring spawning and incubation periods in 1960–70 had a positive effect on the density of egg deposits and the resulting year-class strength. Rates of warming were not themselves detrimental, but rather the extended length of the incubation period in cool springs increased the exposure of eggs to such negative influences as dislodgment from the spawning reefs by strong current action generated by spring storms, or siltation and low oxygen tensions. The annual brood stock size had much less influence on year-class strength than did water temperature. Reproductive success was unrelated to fluctuations in size of suitable reef spawning area caused by changes in water level. Apparently the usable spawning area at any water level is more than adequate to serve the limited walleye brood stocks.
Interannual variability in lower trophic levels on the Alaskan Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batten, Sonia D.; Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Danielson, Seth; Hopcroft, Russell; Coyle, Kenneth; McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail

2018-01-01

This study describes results from the first 16 years of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) program that has sampled the lower trophic levels (restricted to larger, hard-shelled phytoplankton and robust zooplankton taxa) on the Alaskan shelf. Sampling took place along transects from the open ocean across the shelf (to the entrance to Prince William Sound from 2000 to 2003 and into Cook Inlet from 2004 to 2015) to provide plankton abundance data, spring through autumn of each year. We document interannual variability in concentration and composition of the plankton community of the region over this time period. At least in part and through correlative relationships, this can be attributed to changes in the physical environment, particularly direct and indirect effects of temperature. For example; spring mixed layer depth is shown to influence the timing of the spring diatom peak and warmer years are biased towards smaller copepod species. A significant positive relationship between temperature, diatom abundance and zooplankton biomass existed from 2000 to 2013 but was not present in the warm years of 2014 and 2015. These results suggest that anomalous warming events, such as the "heat wave" of 2014-2015, could fundamentally influence typical lower trophic level patterns, possibly altering trophic interactions.
Responses of canopy duration to temperature changes in four temperate tree species: relative contributions of spring and autumn leaf phenology.

PubMed

Vitasse, Yann; Porté, Annabel Josée; Kremer, Antoine; Michalet, Richard; Delzon, Sylvain

2009-08-01

While changes in spring phenological events due to global warming have been widely documented, changes in autumn phenology, and therefore in growing season length, are less studied and poorly understood. However, it may be helpful to assess the potential lengthening of the growing season under climate warming in order to determine its further impact on forest productivity and C balance. The present study aimed to: (1) characterise the sensitivity of leaf phenological events to temperature, and (2) quantify the relative contributions of leaf unfolding and senescence to the extension of canopy duration with increasing temperature, in four deciduous tree species (Acer pseudoplatanus, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Quercus petraea). For 3 consecutive years, we monitored the spring and autumn phenology of 41 populations at elevations ranging from 100 to 1,600 m. Overall, we found significant altitudinal trends in leaf phenology and species-specific differences in temperature sensitivity. With increasing temperature, we recorded an advance in flushing from 1.9 +/- 0.3 to 6.6 +/- 0.4 days degrees C(-1) (mean +/- SD) and a 0 to 5.6 +/- 0.6 days degrees C(-1) delay in leaf senescence. Together both changes resulted in a 6.9 +/- 1.0 to 13.0 +/- 0.7 days degrees C(-1) lengthening of canopy duration depending on species. For three of the four studied species, advances in flushing were the main factor responsible for lengthening canopy duration with increasing temperature, leading to a potentially larger gain in solar radiation than delays in leaf senescence. In contrast, for beech, we found a higher sensitivity to temperature in leaf senescence than in flushing, resulting in an equivalent contribution in solar radiation gain. These results suggest that climate warming will alter the C uptake period and forest productivity by lengthening canopy duration. Moreover, the between-species differences in phenological responses to temperature evidenced here could affect biotic interactions under climate warming.
Early Mars Climate Revisited With a Global Probability Map of Martian Valley Network Origin and Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grau Galofre, A.; Jellinek, M.; Osinski, G. R.

2016-12-01

Valley networks are among the most arresting features on the surface of Mars. Their provocative morphologic resemblance to river valleys on Earth has lead many scientists to argue for Martian river valleys in a "warm and wet" climate scenario, with conditions similar to the terrestrial mid-to-low latitudes. However, this warm scenario is difficult to reconcile with climate models for an Early Mars receiving radiation from a fainter young Sun. Moreover, recent models suggest a colder scenario, with conditions more similar to present day Greenland or Antarctica. Here we use three independent characterization schemes to show quantitative evidence for fluvial, glacial, groundwater sapping and subglacial meltwater channels to build the first global probability map of Martian valley networks. We distinguish a SW-NE corridor of fluvial drainage networks spanning latitudes from 30ºS to 30ºN. We identify additional widespread patterns related to glaciation, subglacial drainage and channels incised by groundwater springs. This global characterization of Martian valleys has profound implications for the average climate of early Mars as well as its variability in space and time.
Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests

PubMed Central

Frey, Sarah J. K.; Hadley, Adam S.; Johnson, Sherri L.; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A.; Betts, Matthew G.

2016-01-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming. PMID:27152339
Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests.

PubMed

Frey, Sarah J K; Hadley, Adam S; Johnson, Sherri L; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A; Betts, Matthew G

2016-04-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming.
Behavioural thermoregulation and bioenergetics of riverine smallmouth bass associated with ambient cold-period thermal refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westhoff, Jacob T.; Paukert, Craig P.; Ettinger-Dietzel, Sarah; Dodd, H.R.; Siepker, Michael

2016-01-01

Smallmouth bass in thermally heterogeneous streams may behaviourally thermoregulate during the cold period (i.e., groundwater temperature greater than river water temperature) by inhabiting warm areas in the stream that result from high groundwater influence or springs. Our objectives were to determine movement of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) that use thermal refuge and project differences in growth and consumption among smallmouth bass exhibiting different thermal-use patterns. We implanted radio transmitters in 29 smallmouth bass captured in Alley Spring on the Jacks Fork River, Missouri, USA, during the winter of 2012. Additionally, temperature archival tags were implanted in a subset of nine fish. Fish were tracked using radio telemetry monthly from January 2012 through January of 2013. The greatest upstream movement was 42.5 km, and the greatest downstream movement was 22.2 km. Most radio tagged fish (69%) departed Alley Spring when daily maximum river water temperature first exceeded that of the spring (14 °C) and during increased river discharge. Bioenergetic modelling predicted that a 350 g migrating smallmouth bass that used cold-period thermal refuge would grow 16% slower at the same consumption level as a fish that did not seek thermal refuge. Contrary to the bioenergetics models, extrapolation of growth scope results suggested migrating fish grow 29% more than fish using areas of stream with little groundwater influence. Our results contradict previous findings that smallmouth bass are relatively sedentary, provide information about potential cues for migratory behaviour, and give insight to managers regarding use and growth of smallmouth bass in thermally heterogeneous river systems.
Seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological processes during 1994-2001 in the Sea of Japan/East Sea: A three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guimei; Chai, Fei

2009-09-01

A Pacific basin-wide physical-biogeochemical model has been used to investigate the seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological fields with analyses focusing on the Sea of Japan/East Sea (JES). The physical model is based on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), and the biogeochemical model is based on the Carb on, Si(OH) 4, Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSiNE) model. The coupled ROMS-CoSiNE model is forced with the daily air-sea fluxes derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis for the period of 1994 to 2001, and the model results are used to evaluate climate impact on nutrient transport in Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics in the JES. The model reproduces several key features of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents, which are consistent with the previous modeling and observational results in the JES. The calculated volume transports through the three major straits show that the Korea Strait (KS) dominates the inflow to the JES with 2.46 Sv annually, and the Tsugaru Strait (TS) and the Soya Strait (SS) are major outflows with 1.85 Sv and 0.64 Sv, respectively. Domain-averaged phytoplankton biomass in the JES reaches its spring peak 1.8 mmol N m - 3 in May and shows a relatively weak autumn increase in November. Strong summer stratification and intense consumption of nitrate by phytoplankton during the spring result in very low nitrate concentration at the upper layer, which limits phytoplankton growth in the JES during the summer. On the other hand, the higher grazer abundance likely contributes to the strong suppression of phytoplankton biomass after the spring bloom in the JES. The model results show strong interannual variability of SST, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass with sudden changes in 1998, which correspond to large-scale changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Regional comparisons of interannual variations in springtime were made for the southern and northern JES. Variations of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass related to the PDO warm/cold phase changes were detected in both the southern and northern JES, and there were regional differences with respect to the mechanisms and timing. During the warm PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD increased in the south and decreased in the north in winter. Conversely, during the cold PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD decreased in the south and increased in the north. Wind divergence/convergence likely drives the differences in the southern and northern regions when northerly and northwesterly monsoon dominates in winter in the JES. Subjected to the nutrient change, the growth of phytoplankton biomass appears to be limited neither by nutrient nor by light consistently both in the southern and northern regions. Namely, the JES is at the transition zone of the lower trophic-level ecosystem between light-limited and nutrient-limited zones.
Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario in the North Sea and possible effects on dinoflagellate harmful algal blooms.

PubMed

Friocourt, Y F; Skogen, M; Stolte, W; Albretsen, J

2012-01-01

Two hydrodynamic and ecological models were used to investigate the effects of climate change-according to the IPCC A1b emission scenario - on the primary productivity of the North Sea and on harmful algal blooms. Both models were forced with atmospheric fields from a regional downscaling of General Circulation Models to compare two sets of 20-year simulations representative of present climate (1984-2004) conditions and of the 2040s. Both models indicated a general warming of the North Sea by up to 0.8°C and a slight freshening by the 2040s. The models suggested that the eastern North Sea would be subjected to more temperature and salinity changes than the western part. In addition, the ecological modules of the models indicated that the warming up of the sea would result in a slightly earlier spring bloom. The one model that also computes the distribution of four different phytoplankton groups suggests an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates, whereas the abundance of diatoms, flagellates and Phaeocystis sp. remains comparable to current levels, or decrease. Assuming that Dinophysis spp. would experience a similar increase in abundance as the modelled group of dinoflagellates, it is hypothesised that blooms of Dinophysis spp. may occur more frequently in the North Sea by 2040. However, implications for shellfish toxicity remain unclear.
Gross primary production responses to warming, elevated CO 2 , and irrigation: quantifying the drivers of ecosystem physiology in a semiarid grassland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryan, Edmund M.; Ogle, Kiona; Peltier, Drew

Determining whether the terrestrial biosphere will be a source or sink of carbon (C) under a future climate of elevated CO2 (eCO2) and warming requires accurate quantification of gross primary production (GPP), the largest flux of C in the global C cycle. We evaluated six years (2007-2012) of flux-derived GPP data from the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment, situated in a mixed prairie grassland in Wyoming (USA). The GPP data were fitted to a mixed effects model that extended a light response model to include the effects of environmental (soil water content, vegetation greenness, nitrogen) and meteorological datamore » (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation) at current and past times. The stimulation of the cumulative six-year GPP by warming (20%, P=0.06) and eCO2 (19%, P=0.14) were primarily driven by enhanced C uptake during spring (96%, P=0.003) and fall (115%, P=0.001), respectively. These enhancements were consistent across each year, suggesting mechanisms for extending the growing season. Vapor pressure deficit from 1-3 days prior was the most significant predictor of temporalvariability in GPP and for explaining treatment differences in GPP, suggesting that atmospheric drought plays an important role for predicting GPP now and under future climate conditions.« less
Gross primary production responses to warming, elevated CO 2 , and irrigation: quantifying the drivers of ecosystem physiology in a semiarid grassland

DOE PAGES

Ryan, Edmund M.; Ogle, Kiona; Peltier, Drew; ...

2016-12-19

Determining whether the terrestrial biosphere will be a source or sink of carbon (C) under a future climate of elevated CO2 (eCO2) and warming requires accurate quantification of gross primary production (GPP), the largest flux of C in the global C cycle. We evaluated six years (2007-2012) of flux-derived GPP data from the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment, situated in a mixed prairie grassland in Wyoming (USA). The GPP data were fitted to a mixed effects model that extended a light response model to include the effects of environmental (soil water content, vegetation greenness, nitrogen) and meteorological datamore » (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation) at current and past times. The stimulation of the cumulative six-year GPP by warming (20%, P=0.06) and eCO2 (19%, P=0.14) were primarily driven by enhanced C uptake during spring (96%, P=0.003) and fall (115%, P=0.001), respectively. These enhancements were consistent across each year, suggesting mechanisms for extending the growing season. Vapor pressure deficit from 1-3 days prior was the most significant predictor of temporalvariability in GPP and for explaining treatment differences in GPP, suggesting that atmospheric drought plays an important role for predicting GPP now and under future climate conditions.« less
Riveting Two-Dimensional Materials: Exploring Strain Physics in Atomically Thin Crystals with Microelectromechanical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christopher, Jason W.

This thesis includes four studies that explore and compare the impacts of four contributing factors resulting in regional climate change on the North Slope of Alaska based on a numerical simulation approach. These four contributing factors include global warming due to changes in radiative forcing, sea ice decline, earlier Arctic lake ice-off, and atmospheric circulation change over the Arctic. A set of dynamically downscaled regional climate products has been developed for the North Slope of Alaska over the period from 1950 up to 2100. A fine grid spacing (10 km) is employed to develop products that resolve detailed mesoscale features in the temperature and precipitation fields on the North Slope of Alaska. Processes resolved include the effects of topography on regional climate and extreme precipitation events. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario projects lower rates of precipitation and temperature increase than RCP8.5 compared to the historical product. The increases of precipitation and temperature trends in the RCP8.5 projection are higher in fall and winter compared to the historical product and the RCP4.5 projection. The impacts of sea ice decline are addressed by conducting sensitivity experiments employing both an atmospheric model and a permafrost model. The sea ice decline impacts are most pronounced in late fall and early winter. The near surface atmospheric warming in late spring and early summer due to sea ice decline are projected to be stronger in the 21st century. Such a warming effect also reduces the total cloud cover on the North Slope of Alaska in summer by destabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer. The sea ice decline warms the atmosphere and the permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska less strongly than the global warming does, while it primarily results in higher seasonal variability of the positive temperature trend that is bigger in late fall and early winter than in other seasons. The ongoing and projected earlier melt of the Arctic lake ice also contributes to regional climate change on the Northern coast of Alaska, though only on a local and seasonal scale. Heat and moisture released from the opened lake surface primarily propagate downwind of the lakes. The impacts of the earlier lake ice-off on both the atmosphere and the permafrost underneath are comparable to those of the sea ice decline in late spring and early summer, while they are roughly six times weaker than those of sea ice decline in late fall and early winter. The permafrost warming resulted from the earlier lake ice-off is speculated to be stronger with more snowfall expected in the 21st century, while the overall atmospheric warming of global origin is speculated to continue growing. Two major Arctic summer-time climatic variability patterns, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Arctic Dipole (AD), are evaluated in 12 global climate models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5). A combined metric ranking approach ranks the models by the Pattern Correlation Coefficients (PCCs) and explained variances calculated from the model-produced summer AO and AD over the historical period. Higher-ranked models more consistently project a positive trend of the summer AO index and a negative trend of summer AD index in their RCP8.5 projections. Such long-term trends of large-scale climate patterns will inhibit the increase in air temperature while favoring the increase in precipitation on the North Slope of Alaska. In summary, this thesis bridges the gaps by quantifying the relative importance of multiple contributing factors to the regional climate change on the North Slope of Alaska. Global warming is the leading contributing factor, while other factors primarily contribute to the spatial and temporal asymmetries of the regional climate change. The results of this thesis lead to a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the climatic impacts to the hydrological and ecological changes of the North Slope of Alaska that have been become more severe and more frequent. They, together with the developed downscaling data products, serve as the climatic background information in such fields of study.
Sustained Observations of Air-Sea Fluxes and Air-Sea Interaction at the Stratus Ocean Reference Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Robert

2014-05-01

Since October 2000, a well-instrumented surface mooring has been maintained some 1,500 km west of the coast of northern Chile, roughly in the location of the climatological maximum in marine stratus clouds. Statistically significant increases in wind stress and decreases in annual net air-sea heat flux and in latent heat flux have been observed. If the increased oceanic heat loss continues, the region will within the next decade change from one of net annual heat gain by the ocean to one of neat annual heat loss. Already, annual evaporation of about 1.5 m of sea water a year acts to make the warm, salty surface layer more dense. Of interest is examining whether or not increased oceanic heat loss has the potential to change the structure of the upper ocean and potentially remove the shallow warm, salty mixed layer that now buffers the atmosphere from the interior ocean. Insights into how that warm, shallow layer is formed and maintained come from looking at oceanic response to the atmosphere at diurnal tie scales. Restratification each spring and summer is found to depend upon the occurrence of events in which the trade winds decay, allowing diurnal warming in the near-surface ocean to occur, and when the winds return resulting in a net upward step in sea surface temperature. This process is proving hard to accurately model.
A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.
A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme hot summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

Fish community dynamics in northeastern Lake Ontario with emphasis on the growth and reproductive success of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) and white perch (Morone americana), 1978 to1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Gorman, Robert; Burnett, John A.D.

2001-01-01

Fishes were assessed in Guffin, Chaumount, and Black River bays in northeastern Lake Ontario with a 7.9-m (headrope) bottom trawl during late September and early October, 1978 to 1997. Fish density declined in the early 1990s with sharp declines in abundance of spottail shiner (Notropis hudsonius), trout-perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus), and johnny darter (Etheostoma nigrum) occurring in 1993 to 1995. Rising numbers of piscivores, walleye (Stizostedion vitreum) and double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus), increased predation pressure, presumably acting in concert with oligotrophication to lower fish density, particularly after 1991 when large numbers of adult alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) no longer migrated to the northeast basin in spring. Annual mortality of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) from age 2 to 5 rose from 33% in 1980–83 to 65% in 1992–95 and was positively related to piscivore numbers (P = 0.01, r = 0.96, n = 5). Annual mortality of yellow perch from age 0 to 2 also peaked in 1992–95. Abundance of yellow perch YOY in fall varied 40 fold and was not related to water warming in spring (P = 0.45, r = −0.19, n = 18) but was negatively related to the abundance of adult alewives in spring (P = 0.04, r = −0.49, n = 18). Although yellow perch produced moderate to strong year classes each year during 1991–95, stock size failed to increase because of rapidly accelerating mortality. Fully 85% of the variation in mean length of yellow perch YOY was explained by a multiple regression model which included YOY abundance, mean total phosphorus, and cumulative degree days > 13.5°C (P < 0.01, n = 15). Abundance of white perch (Morone americana) YOY varied nearly 200 fold and was not related to water warming or spring alewife abundance (P > 0.15). Variation in mean length of white perch YOY was related to cumulative degree days > 15°C (P < 0.01, r = 0.69).
Check-Up Checklist: Things to Do Before Your Next Check-Up

MedlinePlus

... Halloween Prom Tips Spring Break Valentine Tips Winter Holiday Tips 12 Ways Holiday Song Healthy Living Check-Ups are Important Check- ... Test Wash Hands Stay Warm Have a Healthy Holiday Don’t Drink and Drive Widgets Healthy People ...
Seasonal variation of columnar aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing over Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xingna; Lü, Rui; Liu, Chao; Yuan, Liang; Shao, Yixing; Zhu, Bin; Lei, Lu

2017-10-01

Long-term seasonal characteristics of aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing at Beijing (during March 2001-March 2015) were investigated using a combination of ground-based Sun/sky radiometer retrievals from the AERONET and a radiative transfer model. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) showed a distinct seasonal variation with higher values in spring and summer, and relatively lower values in fall and winter. Average Angstrom exponent (AE) in spring was lower than other seasons, implying the significant impact of dust episodes on aerosol size distribution. AE mainly distributed between 1.0 and 1.4 with an obvious uni-peak pattern in each season. The observation data showed that high AODs (>1.0) were clustered in the fine mode growth wing and the coarse mode. Compared to AOD, seasonal variation in single scattering albedo (SSA) showed an opposite pattern with larger values in summer and spring, and smaller ones in winter and fall. The highest volume size distribution and median radius of fine mode particles occurred in summer, while those of coarse mode particles in spring. The averaged aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in spring, summer, fall and winter were -33 ± 22 W m-2, -35 ± 22 W m-2, -28 ± 20 W m-2, and -24 ± 23 W m-2 respectively, and these differences were mainly due to the SSA seasonal variation. The largest positive ARF within atmosphere occurred in spring, implying strong warming in the atmosphere. The low heating ratio in summer was caused by the increase in water vapor content, which enhanced light scattering capacity (i.e., increased SSA).
A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiubao; Ren, Guoyu; Ren, Yuyu; Fang, Yihe; Liu, Yulian; Xue, Xiaoying; Zhang, Panfeng

2017-07-01

Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998-2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are -0.36, -0.14, and -0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.
Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

2014-04-01

This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a season after summer). This study strongly supports the need of simulating the correct onset and decay phases of El Niño/La Niña for capturing the realistic ENSO teleconnections. These results have strong implications for the forecasting of Indian summer monsoon as this model is currently being adopted as an operational model in India.
Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies the Forcing to the Late-Winter Warming in Europe?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Atlas, Robert; Chou, S.-H.; Jusem, J. C.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.; Chase, T. N.; Rogers, J.; Russell, G. L.; Schubert, S. D.; Sud, Y. C.

2001-01-01

We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-winter warming and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-winter and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late winter correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air warming, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of warm maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-winter period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise markedly, the lapse rate becomes steeper, and concurrently the longitudinal temperature gradient between the Somme (France) and the Oder (Germany/Poland border) is reduced by 0.8 C, that is, by 20% of its 1948 value. Our thesis, that the observed late-winter warming and the corollary advancement of spring in Europe resulted at least in part from stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, merits further investigations.
The response of an ocean general circulation model to surface wind stress produced by an atmospheric general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, B.; Schneider, E.K.

1995-10-01

Two surface wind stress datasets for 1979-91, one based on observations and the other from an investigation of the COLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with prescribed SST, are used to drive the GFDL ocean general circulation model. These two runs are referred to as the control and COLA experiments, respectively. Simulated SST and upper-ocean heat contents (HC) in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with observations and between experiments. Both simulation reproduced the observed mean SST and HC fields as well as their annual cycles realistically. Major errors common to both runs are colder than observed SST in themore » eastern equatorial ocean and HC in the western Pacific south of the equator, with errors generally larger in the COLA experiment. New errors arising from the AGCM wind forcing include higher SST near the South American coast throughout the year and weaker HC gradients along the equator in boreal spring. The former is associated with suppressed coastal upwelling by weak along shore AGCM winds, and the latter is caused by weaker equatorial easterlies in boreal spring. The low-frequency ENSO fluctuations are also realistic for both runs. Correlations between the observed and simulated SST anomalies from the COLA simulation are as high as those from the control run in the central equatorial Pacific. A major problem in the COLA simulation is the appearance of unrealistic tropical cold anomalies during the boreal spring of mature El Nino years. These anomalies propagate along the equator from the western Pacific to the eastern coast in about three months, and temporarily eliminate the warm SST and HC anomalies in the eastern Pacific. This erroneous oceanic response in the COLA simulation is caused by a reversal of the westerly wind anomalies on the equator, associated with an unrealistic southward shift of the ITCZ in boreal spring during El Nino events. 66 refs., 16 figs.« less
A longer vernal window: the role of winter coldness and snowpack in driving spring transitions and lags.

PubMed

Contosta, Alexandra R; Adolph, Alden; Burchsted, Denise; Burakowski, Elizabeth; Green, Mark; Guerra, David; Albert, Mary; Dibb, Jack; Martin, Mary; McDowell, William H; Routhier, Michael; Wake, Cameron; Whitaker, Rachel; Wollheim, Wilfred

2017-04-01

Climate change is altering the timing and duration of the vernal window, a period that marks the end of winter and the start of the growing season when rapid transitions in ecosystem energy, water, nutrient, and carbon dynamics take place. Research on this period typically captures only a portion of the ecosystem in transition and focuses largely on the dates by which the system wakes up. Previous work has not addressed lags between transitions that represent delays in energy, water, nutrient, and carbon flows. The objectives of this study were to establish the sequence of physical and biogeochemical transitions and lags during the vernal window period and to understand how climate change may alter them. We synthesized observations from a statewide sensor network in New Hampshire, USA, that concurrently monitored climate, snow, soils, and streams over a three-year period and supplemented these observations with climate reanalysis data, snow data assimilation model output, and satellite spectral data. We found that some of the transitions that occurred within the vernal window were sequential, with air temperatures warming prior to snow melt, which preceded forest canopy closure. Other transitions were simultaneous with one another and had zero-length lags, such as snowpack disappearance, rapid soil warming, and peak stream discharge. We modeled lags as a function of both winter coldness and snow depth, both of which are expected to decline with climate change. Warmer winters with less snow resulted in longer lags and a more protracted vernal window. This lengthening of individual lags and of the entire vernal window carries important consequences for the thermodynamics and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, both during the winter-to-spring transition and throughout the rest of the year. © 2016 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, Cathy; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Stevens, Lora R.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Power, Mitchell J.; Rosenbaum, Joseph R.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Bracht-Flyr, Brandi B.

2012-01-01

A 9400-yr-old record from Crevice Lake, a semi-closed alkaline lake in northern Yellowstone National Park, was analyzed for pollen, charcoal, geochemistry, mineralogy, diatoms, and stable isotopes to develop a nuanced understanding of Holocene environmental history in a region of northern Rocky Mountains that receives both summer and winter precipitation. The limited surface area, conical bathymetry, and deep water (> 31 m) of Crevice Lake create oxygen-deficient conditions in the hypolimnion and preserve annually laminated sediment (varves) for much of the record. Pollen data indicate that the watershed supported a closed Pinus-dominated forest and low fire frequency prior to 8200 cal yr BP, followed by open parkland until 2600 cal yr BP, and open mixed-conifer forest thereafter. Fire activity shifted from infrequent stand-replacing fires initially to frequent surface fires in the middle Holocene and stand-replacing events in recent centuries. Low values of δ18O suggest high winter precipitation in the early Holocene, followed by steadily drier conditions after 8500 cal yr BP. Carbonate-rich sediments before 5000 cal yr BP imply warmer summer conditions than after 5000 cal yr BP. High values of molybdenum (Mo), uranium (U), and sulfur (S) indicate anoxic bottom-waters before 8000 cal yr BP, between 4400 and 3900 cal yr BP, and after 2400 cal yr BP. The diatom record indicates extensive water-column mixing in spring and early summer through much of the Holocene, but a period between 2200 and 800 cal yr BP had strong summer stratification, phosphate limitation, and oxygen-deficient bottom waters. Together, the proxy data suggest wet winters, protracted springs, and warm effectively wet summers in the early Holocene and less snowpack, cool springs, warm dry summers in the middle Holocene. In the late Holocene, the region and lake experienced extreme changes in winter, spring, and summer conditions, with particularly short springs and dry summers and winters during the Roman Warm Period (~ 2000 cal yr BP) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (1200–800 cal yr BP). Long springs and mild summers occurred during the Little Ice Age, and these conditions persist to the present. Although the proxy data indicate effectively wet summer conditions in the early Holocene and drier conditions in the middle and late Holocene, none point specifically to changes in summer precipitation as the cause. Instead, summer conditions were governed by multi-seasonal controls on effective moisture that operated over multiple time scales.
Timing of warm water refuge use in Crystal River National Wildlife Refuge by manatees—Results and insights from Global Positioning System telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slone, Daniel H.; Butler, Susan M.; Reid, James P.; Haase, Catherine G.

2017-11-21

Managers at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Crystal River National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR) desire to update their management plan regarding the operation of select springs including Three Sisters Springs. They wish to refine existing parameters used to predict the presence of federally threatened Trichechus manatus latirostris (Florida manatee) in the springs and thereby improve their manatee management options. The U.S. Geological Survey Sirenia Project has been tracking manatees in the CRNWR area since 2006 with floating Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite-monitored telemetry tags. Analyzing movements of these tagged manatees will provide valuable insight into their habitat use patterns.A total of 136 GPS telemetry bouts were available for this project, representing 730,009 locations generated from 40 manatees tagged in the Gulf of Mexico north of Tampa, Florida. Dates from October through March were included to correspond to the times that cold ambient temperatures were expected, thus requiring a need for manatee thermoregulation and a physiologic need for warm water. Water level (tide) and water temperatures were obtained for the study from Salt River, Crystal River mouth, Bagley Cove, Kings Bay mouth, and Magnolia Spring. Polygons were drawn to subdivide the manatee locations into areas around the most-used springs (Three Sisters/Idiots Delight, House/Hunter/Jurassic, Magnolia and King), Kings Bay, Crystal/Salt Rivers and the Gulf of Mexico.Manatees were found in the Crystal or Salt Rivers or in the Gulf of Mexico when ambient temperatures were warmer (>20 °C), while they were found in or near the springs (especially Three Sisters Springs) at colder ambient water temperatures. There was a trend of manatees entering springs early in the morning and leaving in the afternoon. There was a strong association of manatee movements in and out of the Three Sisters/Idiots Delight polygon with tide cycles: manatees were more likely to enter the Three Sisters/Idiots Delight polygon on an incoming tide, and leave the polygon on an outgoing tide. Both movement directions were associated with midtide. Future analysis will incorporate human activity and a finer spatial scale, including movements between Three Sisters Springs and Idiots Delight and nearby canals.
Develop an early warning climate indicator to support the Nation's resilience to 'flash' droughts over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; YANG, Z.; Solis, R.

2013-12-01

'Flash' droughts refer to those droughts that intensify rapidly in spring and summer, coupled with a strong increase of summer extreme temperatures, such as those that occurred over Texas in 2011 and the Great Plains in 2012. These droughts represent a great threat to North American water security. Climate models have failed to predict these 'flash' droughts and are ambiguous in projecting their future changes largely because of models' weaknesses in predicting summer rainfall and soil moisture feedbacks. By contrast, climate models are more reliable in simulating changes of large-scale circulation and warming of temperatures during the winter and spring seasons. We present a prototype of an early warning indicator for the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer by using the large-scale circulation and land surface conditions in winter and spring based on observed relationships between these conditions and their underlying physical mechanisms established by previous observations and numerical model simulations. This prototype 'flash' drought indicator (IFDW) currently uses global and regional reanalysis products (e.g., CFSR, MERRA, NLDAS products) in winter and spring to provide an assessment of summer drought severity similar to drought severity indices like PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) etc., provided by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) with additional information about uncertainty and past probability distributions of IFDW. Preliminary evaluation of hindcasts suggests that the indicator captures the occurrences of all the regional severe to extreme summer droughts during the past 63 years (1949-2011) over the US Great Plains, and 95% of the drought ending. This prototype IFDW has several advantages over the available drought indices that simply track local drought conditions in the past, present and future: 1) It mitigates the weakness of current climate models in predicting future summer droughts and takes advantage of model strengths and our understanding of the mechanisms that control 'flash' droughts; 2) It provides actionable drought risk information for stakeholders before droughts become fully developed in the current climate; 3) It can potentially link the future increase of temperatures in winter and spring to the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer. Such a link would make the projected changes of the 'flash' droughts more intuitive and compelling to high-level decision makers and the public.
9. HIGH LENNON FLUME, SANTA ANA NO 3, EXHIBIT L, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

9. HIGH LENNON FLUME, SANTA ANA NO 3, EXHIBIT L, JAN. 25, 1956. SCE drawing no. 541723 (sheet 3; for filing with Federal Power Commission). - Santa Ana River Hydroelectric System, Warm Springs Canyon-SAR-3 Flumes, Redlands, San Bernardino County, CA
Shifting seasonal cycles of surface ozone: the role of regional vs. global emission changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifton, O.; Fiore, A. M.; Correa, G. J.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.

2013-12-01

Surface-level ozone seasonal cycles vary in shape and in magnitude with location. These variations reflect local contributions, whose influence differs each month, from regional anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions, as well as ozone transported from various sources. We focus on two U.S. regions with markedly different seasonal cycles over recent decades: the Northeast and the InterMountain West. In the Northeast, there are peak ozone values in the summer months due to high regional NOx emissions, abundant sunlight and isoprene emissions during this season. The lower NOx emissions in the InterMountain West combined with higher altitude where transported 'background' ozone is larger, leads to a weak spring maximum. Parrish et al. [2013] report a shift in seasonal cycles to earlier months in spring over recent decades at remote sites. We investigate here the role of changing global and regional ozone precursor emissions over the 21st century. With GFDL's fully coupled climate chemistry model CM3, we use selected Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios developed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in support of IPCC AR 5, and several sensitivity simulations, to examine the impacts of regional and global emissions on surface ozone seasonal cycles throughout the 21st century. In RCP8.5, an extreme climate warming scenario, methane doubles from the present to the end of the 21st century, whereas in RCP4.5, a more moderate climate warming scenario, there is a small (~10%) decrease of methane. For RCP8.5, global mean surface temperature increases by 4.5 K, and for RCP4.5, by 1.4 K. In RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, NOx emissions decrease globally by 70.1% and 52.3%, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. These regional NOx reductions shift the ozone maximum in the Northeast from summer to late winter/early spring, resembling the present-day seasonal cycle over the InterMountain West. Over the InterMoutain West, surface ozone also decreases in summer and increases in the late winter/early spring. We further find that in RCP8.5, the end of 21st century seasonal cycles in the Northeast and the InterMountain West increase by more than 5-15 ppb in each month due to the doubling of global methane. Across present-day high-NOx regions at northern mid-latitudes, surface ozone consistently decreases during the summer and fall months as NOx emissions decline globally, but in the RCP8.5 scenario increases during winter and early spring as CH4 rises.
Linking diatom deposition in a deep lake with the spring temperature gradient (Tiefer See, NE Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienel, Ulrike; Kirillin, Georgiy; Brademann, Brian; Plessen, Birgit; Brauer, Achim

2015-04-01

Monitoring of deep Lake Tiefer See showed a much larger deposition of diatoms following ice out and a rapid spring stratification in mid April 2013 compared to that following the gradual warming and stratification in mid April 2012. The manifold of diatom individuals in 2013 compared to 2012 amounted to calculated 2.0 compared to 0.15 g silica per square meter and day. The striking difference was the two orders of magnitude larger number of Stephanodiscus sp. in 2013, which were only a minor component in 2012. The monitored weather and lake conditions suggest the 2013-spring bloom was boosted by a quick succession of ice breakup, spring turnover, and stratification leading to nutrient recycling and rapidly improved light conditions. The comparatively longer mixing in spring 2012, calculated using the lake-temperature model FLake, caused population losses that impeded bloom development. To verify the exemplified inverse relation of diatom deposition and mixing duration in spring we use the subannually laminated, recent sediment record of Lake Tiefer See (AD 1924 - 2008), the instrumental series from the meteorological station in Schwerin, and model simulations of the spring mixing. The mixing duration was calculated as the period between water temperatures of 4°C and a mixing depth of 6 m were reached for the period 1951 - 2008. To cover the full sediment record a simple estimate of the mixing period was calculated from mean temperatures, i.e. the temperature duration from the first 5°C-day to the first of ≥5°C days. The annual diatom deposition was calculated as the annual average µXRF-counts of Si in the sediment record (AD 1924-2008), based on negligible amounts of detrital Si, low deposition of inorganic matter during winter, and a striking balance of IM deposition and Si deposition calculated from the diatom frustules deposited. We find support for the linear and inverse relation of diatom silica deposition with the duration of spring mixing using the modeled mixing duration with 25% explained variability and with 20% using the temperature relation, respectively. The explanation increases to 49%, respectively 53% when the period after AD1980 is removed from the data set. The lack of diatom response during this period is supposed to relate to the primary influence of nutrients from intensive manuring and drainage in the catchment on the algal development at that time.
Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.
Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.
The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

PubMed

Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

2017-08-15

Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.
Dendrophenology: Inferring the response of North American eastern deciduous forests to an earlier spring from tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmore, A. J.; Nelson, D. M.; Craine, J. M.

2016-12-01

There is wide agreement that anthropogenic climate warming has influenced the phenology of forests during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. A critical question for predicting the magnitude of future warming under different emissions scenarios is the degree to which forest productivity responds to longer growing seasons in the face of concurrent changes in other drivers of productivity. Longer growing seasons can lead to increased photosynthesis and productivity, which would represent a negative feedback to rising CO2 and consequently warming. Alternatively, increased demand for soil resources due to a longer photosynthetically active period in conjunction with other global change factors might exacerbate resource limitation, restricting forest productivity response to a longer growing season. In this case, increased spring-time productivity has the potential to increase plant N limitation by increasing plant demand for N more than N supplies, or increasing early-season ecosystem N losses. Long-term direct measurements are not yet available to specifically address this question, but advances in remote sensing and dendroecological methods present opportunities to acquire information retrospectively to advance understanding of how phenological changes and resource availability to trees have been affecting forest productivity. Here we show that for 222 trees representing three species in eastern North America over the past 30 years earlier spring phenology has caused declines in N availability to trees by increasing demand for N relative to supply. The observed decline in N availability is not associated with reduced wood production, suggesting that other environmental changes such as increased atmospheric CO2 and water availability have likely overwhelmed reduced N availability. Given current trajectories of environmental changes, N limitation will likely continue to increase for these forests, possibly further limiting C sequestration potential.
Spatial and Seasonal Calcification in Corals and Calcareous Crusts in a Naturally Warm Coral Reef Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roik, A.; Roder, C.; Roethig, T.; Voolstra, C. R.

2016-02-01

The Red Sea harbors highly diverse and structurally complex coral reefs and is of interest for ocean warming studies. In the central and southern part, water temperatures rise above 30°C during summer, constituting one of the warmest coral reef environments worldwide. Additionally, seasonal variability of temperatures allows studying changes of environmental conditions and their effects on coral reef processes. To explore the influence of these warm and seasonally variable habitats on reef calcification, we measured in situ calcification of primary and secondary reef-builders in the central Red Sea. We collected calcification rates on the major habitat-forming coral genera Porites, Acropora, and Pocillopora, and also on calcareous crusts (CC). The study comprised forereef and backreef environments of three reefs along a cross-shelf gradient assessed over four seasons of the year. Calcification patterns of all coral genera were consistent across the shelf and highest in spring. In contrast to the corals, CC calcification strongly increased with distance from shore, but varied to a lesser extend over the seasons demonstrating lower calcification rates during spring and summer. Interestingly, reef calcification rates in the central Red Sea were on average in the range of data reported from the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific. For Acropora, annual average calcification rates were even at the lower end in comparison to studies from other locations. While coral calcification maxima typically have been observed during summer in many reef locations worldwide, we observed calcification maxima during spring in the central Red Sea indicating that summer temperatures may exceed the optima of reef calcifiers. Our study provides a baseline of calcification data for the region and serves as a foundation for comparative efforts to quantify the impact of future environmental change.

Moisture increase in response to high-altitude warming evidenced by tree-rings on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jinbao; Shi, Jiangfeng; Zhang, David D.; Yang, Bao; Fang, Keyan; Yue, Pak Hong

2017-01-01

Rapid warming has been observed in the high-altitude areas around the globe, but the implications on moisture change are not fully understood. Here we use tree-rings to reveal common moisture change on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the past five centuries, and show that regional moisture change in late spring to early summer (April-June) is closely related to large-scale temperature anomaly over the TP, with increased moisture coincident with periods of high temperature. The most recent pluvial during the 1990s-2000s is likely the wettest for the past five centuries, which coincides with the warmest period on the TP during the past millennium. Dynamic analysis reveals that vertical air convection is enhanced in response to anomalous TP surface warming, leading to an increase in lower-tropospheric humidity and effective precipitation over the southeastern TP. The coherent warm-wet relationship identified in both tree-rings and dynamic analysis implies a generally wetter condition on the southeastern TP under future warming.
Attributing regional trends of evapotranspiration and gross primary productivity with remote sensing: a case study in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Xingguo; Chen, Xuejuan; Hu, Shi; Liu, Suxia; Xia, Jun

2017-01-01

Attributing changes in evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial for impact and adaptation assessment of the agro-ecosystems to climate change. Simulations with the VIP model revealed that annual ET and GPP slightly increased from 1981 to 2013 over the North China Plain. The tendencies of both ET and GPP were upward in the spring season, while they were weak and downward in the summer season. A complete factor analysis illustrated that the relative contributions of climatic change, CO2 fertilization, and management to the ET (GPP) trend were 56 (-32) %, -28 (25) %, and 68 (108) %, respectively. The decline of global radiation resulted from deteriorated aerosol and air pollution was the principal cause of GPP decline in summer, while air warming intensified the water cycle and advanced the plant productivity in the spring season. Generally, agronomic improvements were the principal drivers of crop productivity enhancement.
Chemical and isotopic prediction of aquifer temperatures in the geothermal system at Long Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fournier, R.O.; Sorey, M.L.; Mariner, R.H.; Truesdell, A.H.

1979-01-01

Temperatures of aquifers feeding thermal springs and wells in Long Valley, California, estimated using silica and Na-K-Ca geothermometers and warm spring mixing models, range from 160/dg to about 220??C. This information was used to construct a diagram showing enthalpy-chloride relations for the various thermal waters in the Long Valley region. The enthalpy-chloride information suggests that a 282 ?? 10??C aquifer with water containing about 375 mg chloride per kilogram of water is present somewhere deep in the system. That deep water would be related to ??? 220??C Casa Diablo water by mixing with cold water, and to Hot Creek water by first boiling with steam loss and then mixing with cold water. Oxygen and deuterium isotopic data are consistent with that interpretation. An aquifer at 282??C with 375 mg/kg chloride implies a convective heat flow in Long Valley of 6.6 ?? 107 cal/s. ?? 1979.
Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

PubMed

Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

2017-11-15

Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.
Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run.

PubMed

Wang, Huanjiong; Rutishauser, This; Tao, Zexing; Zhong, Shuying; Ge, Quansheng; Dai, Junhu

2017-02-01

The impact of spring temperature forcing on the timing of leaf unfolding of plants (temperature sensitivity, S T ) is one important indicator of how and to what degree plant species track climate change. Fu et al. (Nature 526:104-107, 2015) found that S T has significantly decreased from the 1980-1994 to the 1999-2013 period for seven mid-latitude tree species in Europe. However, long-term changes in S T over the past 60 years are still not clear. Here, using in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species, we analyze the temporal change in S T over decadal time scales extending the data series back to 1951. Our results demonstrate that S T shows no statistically significant change within shifting 30-year windows from 1951 to 2013 and remains stable between 1951-1980 and 1984-2013 (3.6 versus 3.7 days °C -1 ). This result suggests that the significant decrease in S T over the past 33 years could not be sustained when examining the trends of phenological responses in the long run. Therefore, we could not conclude that tree spring phenology advances will slow down in the future, and the S T changes in warming scenarios are still uncertain.
Managed flood effects on beaver pond habitat in a desert riverine ecosystem, bill williams river, Arizona USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, D.C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Pritekel, C.M.; O'Neill, M. W.

2011-01-01

The ecological effects of beaver in warm-desert streams are poorly documented, but potentially significant. For example, stream water and sediment budgets may be affected by increased evaporative losses and sediment retention in beaver ponds. We measured physical attributes of beaver pond and adjacent lotic habitats on a regulated Sonoran Desert stream, the Bill Williams River, after ???11 flood-free months in Spring 2007 and Spring 2008. Neither a predicted warming of surface water as it passed through a pond nor a reduction in dissolved oxygen in ponds was consistently observed, but bed sediment sorted to finest in ponds as expected. We observed a river segment-scale downstream rise in daily minimum stream temperature that may have been influenced by the series of ??100 beaver ponds present. Channel cross-sections surveyed before and after an experimental flood (peak flow 65 m3/s) showed net aggradation on nine of 13 cross-sections through ponds and three of seven through lotic reaches. Our results indicate that beaver affect riverine processes in warm deserts much as they do in other biomes. However, effects may be magnified in deserts through the potential for beaver to alter the stream thermal regime and water budget. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2011.
Methanotrophic bacteria in warm geothermal spring sediments identified using stable-isotope probing.

PubMed

Sharp, Christine E; Martínez-Lorenzo, Azucena; Brady, Allyson L; Grasby, Stephen E; Dunfield, Peter F

2014-10-01

We investigated methanotrophic bacteria in sediments of several warm geothermal springs ranging in temperature from 22 to 45 °C. Methane oxidation was measured at potential rates up to 141 μmol CH4 d(-1) g(-1) sediment. Active methanotrophs were identified using (13) CH4 stable-isotope probing (SIP) incubations performed at close to in situ temperatures for each site. Quantitative (q) PCR of pmoA genes identified the position of the heavy ((13) C-labelled) DNA fractions in density gradients, and 16S rRNA gene pyrotag sequencing of the heavy fractions was performed to identify the active methanotrophs. Methanotroph communities identified in heavy fractions of all samples were predominated by species similar (≥ 95% 16S rRNA gene identities) to previously characterized Gammaproteobacteria and Alphaproteobacteria methanotrophs. Among the five hottest samples (45 °C), members of the Gammaproteobacteria genus Methylocaldum dominated in two cases, while three others were dominated by an OTU closely related (96.8% similarity) to the Alphaproteobacteria genus Methylocapsa. These results suggest that diverse methanotroph groups are adapted to warm environments, including the Methylocapsa-Methylocella-Methyloferula group, which has previously only been detected in cooler sites. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.
Climate Warming Threatens Semi-arid Forests in Inner Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, X.; Liu, H.; Qi, Z.; Li, X.

2014-12-01

A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes (such as fire and insect dynamics) in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected. However, the functionally realistic mechanisms beneath the pervasively climate-induced forest decline/dieback still remain unclear. Network-based long-term surveys and experiment studies are urgently needed for further understandings regarding the responses of forest/tree growth to climate warming/variations.
Walthère Victor Spring - A Forerunner in the Study of the Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demarée, Gaston R.; Verheyden, Rosiane

2016-01-01

In 1886, an article by Walthère Spring and Léon Roland, two scientists from the University of Liège, dealing with the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere in Liège appeared in the "Mẻmoires" of the Royal Academy of Belgium. In order to explain the difference between temperatures in the city of Liège and those observed in that city's environs, the authors invoked the high level of atmospheric CO2. Although the climatological argument was rather weak and the article concerned only a local impact, it is obvious that Spring can be viewed as a precursor of Svante Arrhenius who foresaw global warming in 1895-1896.
Rain, Snow, and Spring Runoff Revisited.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bohren, Craig F.

1995-01-01

Explores the theory behind the correlation between warm rain, rapid snowmelt, and the subsequent runoff using the concepts of enthalpy, thermal transfer, and energy transfer. Concludes that rapid runoff is not a consequence of rain per se but of the high humidities associated with the rain. (JRH)
11. INTAKE FLUME AND TUNNEL SECTIONS, SANTA ANA NO. 3, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

11. INTAKE FLUME AND TUNNEL SECTIONS, SANTA ANA NO. 3, EXHIBIT L, JAN. 25, 1956. SCE drawing no. 541728 (sheet 1; for filing with Federal Power Commission). - Santa Ana River Hydroelectric System, Warm Springs Canyon-SAR-3 Flumes, Redlands, San Bernardino County, CA
10. TYPICAL DETAILS OF LENNON FLUME, SANTA ANA NO. 3, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

10. TYPICAL DETAILS OF LENNON FLUME, SANTA ANA NO. 3, EXHIBIT L, JAN. 25, 1956. SCE drawing no. 541722 (sheet 4; for filing with Federal Power Commission). - Santa Ana River Hydroelectric System, Warm Springs Canyon-SAR-3 Flumes, Redlands, San Bernardino County, CA
Enhanced wintertime greenhouse effect reinforcing Arctic amplification and initial sea-ice melting.

PubMed

Cao, Yunfeng; Liang, Shunlin; Chen, Xiaona; He, Tao; Wang, Dongdong; Cheng, Xiao

2017-08-16

The speeds of both Arctic surface warming and sea-ice shrinking have accelerated over recent decades. However, the causes of this unprecedented phenomenon remain unclear and are subjects of considerable debate. In this study, we report strong observational evidence, for the first time from long-term (1984-2014) spatially complete satellite records, that increased cloudiness and atmospheric water vapor in winter and spring have caused an extraordinary downward longwave radiative flux to the ice surface, which may then amplify the Arctic wintertime ice-surface warming. In addition, we also provide observed evidence that it is quite likely the enhancement of the wintertime greenhouse effect caused by water vapor and cloudiness has advanced the time of onset of ice melting in mid-May through inhibiting sea-ice refreezing in the winter and accelerating the pre-melting process in the spring, and in turn triggered the positive sea-ice albedo feedback process and accelerated the sea ice melting in the summer.
Extreme Winter/Early-Spring Temperature Anomalies in Central Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, Robert; Ardizzone, Joseph; Brakke, Thomas; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Jusem, Juan Carlos; Glantz, Michael; Rogers, Jeff; Sud, Yogesh; Susskind, Joel

2000-01-01

Extreme seasonal fluctuations of the surface-air temperature characterize the climate of central Europe, 45-60 deg North Temperature difference between warm 1990 and cold 1996 in the January-March period, persisting for more than two weeks at a time, amounted to 18 C for extensive areas. These anomalies in the surface-air temperature stem in the first place from differences in the low level flow from the eastern North-Atlantic: the value of the Index 1na of southwesterlies over the eastern North-Atlantic was 8.0 m/s in February 1990, but only 2.6 m/ s in February 1996. The primary forcing by warm advection to positive anomalies in monthly mean surface temperature produced strong synoptic-scale uplift at the 700 mb level over some regions in Europe. The strong uplift contributed in 1990 to a much larger cloud-cover over central Europe, which reduced heat-loss to space (greenhouse effect). Thus, spring arrived earlier than usual in 1990, but later than usual in 1996.
An unprecedented coastwide toxic algal bloom linked to anomalous ocean conditions

PubMed Central

Hickey, Barbara M.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Lefebvre, Kathi A.; Adams, Nicolaus G.; Bill, Brian D.; Gulland, Frances M. D.; Thomson, Richard E.; Cochlan, William P.; Trainer, Vera L.

2016-01-01

Abstract A coastwide bloom of the toxigenic diatom Pseudo‐nitzschia in spring 2015 resulted in the largest recorded outbreak of the neurotoxin, domoic acid, along the North American west coast. Elevated toxins were measured in numerous stranded marine mammals and resulted in geographically extensive and prolonged closures of razor clam, rock crab, and Dungeness crab fisheries. We demonstrate that this outbreak was initiated by anomalously warm ocean conditions. Pseudo‐nitzschia australis thrived north of its typical range in the warm, nutrient‐poor water that spanned the northeast Pacific in early 2015. The seasonal transition to upwelling provided the nutrients necessary for a large‐scale bloom; a series of spring storms delivered the bloom to the coast. Laboratory and field experiments confirming maximum growth rates with elevated temperatures and enhanced toxin production with nutrient enrichment, together with a retrospective analysis of toxic events, demonstrate the potential for similarly devastating ecological and economic disruptions in the future. PMID:27917011
Mars south polar spring and summer temperatures - A residual CO2 frost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kieffer, H. H.

1979-01-01

Viking infrared thermal mapper (IRTM) energy measurements over the Mars south polar cap throughout the Martian spring and summer revealed complex spatial, spectral, and temporal variations. High albedos did not directly correspond with low temperatures, and as the cap shrank to its residual position, it maintained large differences in brightness temperature between the four IRTM surface-sensing bands at 7, 9, 11, and 20 microns. The late summer infrared spectral pattern can be matched by a surface consisting of CO2 frost with 20 micron emissivity of 0.8 and about 6% dark, warm soil under a dusty atmosphere of moderate infrared opacity and spectral properties similar to those measured for the Martian global dust storms. Low temperature, the absence of appreciable water vapor in the south polar atmosphere, and the absence of surface warming expected if H2O were to become exposed, all imply that the residual south polar cap was covered by solid CO2.
Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing ET, but decreasing GEP in summer. We concluded that seasonal dynamics of the interchange between precipitation and drought status of the system was an important variable in controlling seasonal WUE in wet years. In contrast, despite the negative impacts of unfavorable warming, available groundwater and an early start of the growing season were important contributing variables in high seasonal GEP, and thus, high seasonal WUE in dry years. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less
Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge; ...

2016-01-07

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing ET, but decreasing GEP in summer. We concluded that seasonal dynamics of the interchange between precipitation and drought status of the system was an important variable in controlling seasonal WUE in wet years. In contrast, despite the negative impacts of unfavorable warming, available groundwater and an early start of the growing season were important contributing variables in high seasonal GEP, and thus, high seasonal WUE in dry years. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less
Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.
Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuecker, Malte F.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Armour, Kyle C.

2017-09-01

The 2016 austral spring was characterized by the lowest Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice extent seen in the satellite record (1979 to present) and coincided with anomalously warm surface waters surrounding most of Antarctica. We show that two distinct processes contributed to this event: First, the extreme El Niño event peaking in December-February 2015/2016 contributed to pronounced extratropical SH sea surface temperature and sea ice extent anomalies in the eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen Seas that persisted in part until the following 2016 austral spring. Second, internal unforced atmospheric variability of the Southern Annular Mode promoted the exceptional low sea ice extent in November-December 2016. These results suggest that a combination of tropically forced and internal SH atmospheric variability contributed to the unprecedented sea ice decline during the 2016 austral spring, on top of a background of slow changes expected from greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal.

PubMed

Schenk, Frederik; Väliranta, Minna; Muschitiello, Francesco; Tarasov, Lev; Heikkilä, Maija; Björck, Svante; Brandefelt, Jenny; Johansson, Arne V; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2018-04-24

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.
Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-09-01

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Range-Specific High-resolution Mesoscale Model Setup

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2013-01-01

This report summarizes the findings from an AMU task to determine the best model configuration for operational use at the ER and WFF to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. The AMU ran test cases in the warm and cool seasons at the ER and for the spring and fall seasons at WFF. For both the ER and WFF, the ARW core outperformed the NMM core. Results for the ER indicate that the Lin microphysical scheme and the YSU PBL scheme is the optimal model configuration for the ER. It consistently produced the best surface and upper air forecasts, while performing fairly well for the precipitation forecasts. Both the Ferrier and Lin microphysical schemes in combination with the YSU PBL scheme performed well for WFF in the spring and fall seasons. The AMU has been tasked with a follow-on modeling effort to recommended local DA and numerical forecast model design optimized for both the ER and WFF to support space launch activities. The AMU will determine the best software and type of assimilation to use, as well as determine the best grid resolution for the initialization based on spatial and temporal availability of data and the wall clock run-time of the initialization. The AMU will transition from the WRF EMS to NU-WRF, a NASA-specific version of the WRF that takes advantage of unique NASA software and datasets. 37
Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

PubMed

Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

2013-01-01

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.
Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

PubMed Central

Ficklin, Darren L.; Stewart, Iris T.; Maurer, Edwin P.

2013-01-01

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health. PMID:23977011
Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms.

PubMed

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-10-24

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = -0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world.
Predictive modeling of cholera using GRACE and TRMM satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jutla, A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Colwell, R. R.

2015-12-01

Cholera outbreaks can be classified in three forms- epidemic (sudden or seasonal outbreaks), endemic (recurrence and persistence of the disease for several consecutive years) and mixed-mode endemic (combination of certain epidemic and endemic conditions) with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Endemic cholera is related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. With more than a decade of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), understanding dynamics of river discharge is now feasible. We explored lead-lag relationships between TWS in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin and endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Since bimodal seasonal peaks in cholera in Bangladesh occur during the spring and autumn season, two separate models, between TWS and disease time series (2002 to 2010) were developed. TWS, hence water availability, showed an asymmetrical, strong association with spring (τ=-0.53; p<0.001) and autumn (τ=0.45; p<0.001) cholera prevalence up to five to six months in advance. One unit (cm of water) decrease in water availability in the basin increased odds of above normal cholera by 24% [confidence interval (CI) 20-31%; p<0.05] in the spring season, while an increase in regional water by one unit, through floods, increased odds of above average cholera in the autumn by 29% [CI:22-33%; p<0.05]. Epidemic cholera is related with warm temperatures and heavy rainfall. Using TRMM data for several locations in Asia and Africa, probability of cholera increases 18% [CI:15-23%; p<0.05] after heavy precipitation resulted in a societal conditions where access to safe water and sanitation was disrupted. Results from mechanistic modeling framework using systems approach that include satellite based hydroclimatic information with tradition disease transmission models will also be presented.
Partitioning of water flux in a Sierra Nevada ponderosa pine plantation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurpius, M.R.; Panek, J.A.; Nikolov, N.T.; McKay, M.; Goldstein, Allen H.

2003-01-01

The weather patterns of the west side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (cold, wet winters and hot, dry summers) strongly influence how water is partitioned between transpiration and evaporation and result in a specific strategy of water use by ponderosa pine trees (Pinus ponderosa) in this region. To investigate how year-round water fluxes were partitioned in a young ponderosa pine ecosystem in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, water fluxes were continually measured from June 2000 to May 2001 using a combination of sap flow and eddy covariance techniques (above- and below-canopy). Water fluxes were modeled at our study site using a biophysical model, FORFLUX. During summer and fall water fluxes were equally partitioned between transpiration and soil evaporation while transpiration dominated the water fluxes in winter and spring. The trees had high rates of canopy conductance and transpiration in the early morning and mid-late afternoon and a mid-day depression during the dry season. We used a diurnal centroid analysis to show that the timing of high canopy conductance and transpiration relative to high vapor pressure deficit (D) shifted with soil moisture: during periods of low soil moisture canopy conductance and transpiration peaked early in the day when D was low. Conversely, during periods of high soil moisture canopy conductance and transpiration peaked at the same time or later in the day than D. Our observations suggest a general strategy by the pine trees in which they maximize stomatal conductance, and therefore carbon fixation, throughout the day on warm sunny days with high soil moisture (i.e. warm periods in winter and late spring) and maximize stomatal conductance and carbon fixation in the morning through the dry periods. FORFLUX model estimates of evaporation and transpiration were close to measured/calculated values during the dry period, including the drought, but underestimated transpiration and overestimated evaporation during the wet period. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.
Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, K.

2005-12-01

I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.
The CAUSES Model Intercomparison Project: Using hindcast approach to study the U.S. summertime surface warm temperature bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, H. Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; Zhang, C.; Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Petch, J.

2016-12-01

The CAUSES (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface) is a joint GASS/RGCM/ASR model intercomparison project with an observational focus (data from the U.S. DOE ARM SGP site and other observations). The goal of this project is to evaluate the role of clouds, radiation and precipitation processes in contributing to the surface air temperature bias in the region of the central U.S., which is seen in several weather and climate models. In this project, we use a short-term hindcast approach and examine the error growth due to cloud-associated processes while the large-scale state remains close to observations. The study period is from April 1 to August 31, 2011, which also covers the entire Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) campaign that provides very frequent radiosondes (8 per day) and many extensive cloud and precipitation radar observations. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the warm surface air temperature bias in the mean diurnal cycle of the whole study period is very robust across all the participating models over the ARM SGP site. During the spring season (April-May), the daytime warm bias in most models is mostly due to excessive net surface shortwave flux resulting from insufficient deep convective cloud fraction or too optically thin clouds. The nighttime warm bias is likely due to the excessive downwelling longwave flux warming resulting from the persisting deep clouds. During the summer season (June-August), bias contribution from precipitation bias becomes important. The insufficient seasonal accumulated precipitation from the propagating convective systems originated from the Rockies contributes to lower soil moisture. Such condition drives the land surface to a dry state whereby radiative input can only be balanced by sensible heat loss through an increased surface air temperature. More information about the CAUSES project can be found through the following project webpage (http://portal.nersc.gov/project/capt/CAUSES/). (This study is funded by the RGCM and ASR programs of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-688818)
Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

2013-09-24

Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.
Gas exchange, growth, and defense responses of invasive Alliaria petiolata (Brassicaceae) and native Geum vernum (Rosaceae) to elevated atmospheric CO2 and warm spring temperatures.

PubMed

Anderson, Laurel J; Cipollini, Don

2013-08-01

Global increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature may interact in complex ways to influence plant physiology and growth, particularly for species that grow in cool, early spring conditions in temperate forests. Plant species may also vary in their responses to environmental changes; fast-growing invasives may be more responsive to rising CO2 than natives and may increase production of allelopathic compounds under these conditions, altering species' competitive interactions. We examined growth and physiological responses of Alliaria petiolata, an allelopathic, invasive herb, and Geum vernum, a co-occurring native herb, to ambient and elevated spring temperatures and atmospheric CO2 conditions in a factorial growth chamber experiment. At 5 wk, leaves were larger at high temperature, and shoot biomass increased under elevated CO2 only at high temperature in both species. As temperatures gradually warmed to simulate seasonal progression, G. vernum became responsive to CO2 at both temperatures, whereas A. petiolata continued to respond to elevated CO2 only at high temperature. Elevated CO2 increased thickness and decreased nitrogen concentrations in leaves of both species. Alliaria petiolata showed photosynthetic downregulation at elevated CO2, whereas G. vernum photosynthesis increased at elevated temperature. Flavonoid and cyanide concentrations decreased significantly in A. petiolata leaves in the elevated CO2 and temperature treatment. Total glucosinolate concentrations and trypsin inhibitor activities did not vary among treatments. Future elevated spring temperatures and CO2 will interact to stimulate growth for A. petiolata and G. vernum, but there may be reduced allelochemical effects in A. petiolata.
The indirect effects of climate variability on the reproductive dynamics and productivity of an avian predator in the arid Southwest.

PubMed

Borgman, Corrie C; Wolf, Blair O

2016-01-01

The deserts of the southwestern US are experiencing rapid warming, and climate models predict declining winter precipitation. The combined effects of higher air temperatures and drought are a reduction in productivity, which may importantly impact reproduction in consumers. Here, we investigate the effects of warming and drought on the reproductive timing and output in loggerhead shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus) in central New Mexico from 2007 to 2012. We found increases in air temperature of 3 °C during the breeding season (March-July) and highly variable winter and annual precipitation. With increasing spring temperatures, shrikes advanced nesting phenology by 20 days over 6 years, a much higher rate than is reported for any other bird species. During this period, the number of breeding pairs also increased from 25 to 37, and clutch size and the number offspring produced per successful nest did not vary. Nest success, however, was often very low and ranged from 11 to 46%. Although our models indicated that low nest success was driven by precipitation and temperature, it was mediated indirectly through increased predation rates during the hot and dry periods.
Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Shengwu; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Li, Xianda; Ouyang, Yanlan

2016-09-01

The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qingfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met.
A climatology of frozen-in anticyclones in the spring arctic stratosphere over the period 1960-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ThiéBlemont, RéMi; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Hauchecorne, Alain; Drouin, Marc-Antoine; Huret, Nathalie

2013-02-01

During springtime, following the stratospheric final warming, intrusions from low latitudes can become trapped at polar latitudes in long-lived anticyclones. Such "frozen-in" anticyclones (FrIACs) have occasionally been observed to persist as late as August, advected by summer easterlies. In this study, the high-resolution advection contour model MIMOSA is used to advect a pseudo-potential vorticity tracer. The model is driven by ERA-40 and the ERA-Interim reanalyses over the period 1960-2011. We first identify a remarkable FrIAC event in spring 2011. In addition, we developed a method to detect the characteristic size of low-latitude intrusions into the polar region at the time of the spring transition, over the period 1960-2011. Years are classified as either Type-A when the intrusions are small or as Type-B when intrusions are large, potentially evolving into FrIACs. For a FrIAC to occur, we require an additional criterion based on the in-phase character of the core of the intrusions and the anticyclone. During the 52 analyzed years, 9 events have been identified: 1 in the 1960s, 1 in the 1980s, 2 in the 1990s, and 5 from 2002. FrIAC are predominantly long-lived intrusions, which occur in association with abrupt and early reversal to summer easterlies with a large heat flux pulse around the date of this wind reversal. Finally, the results are discussed in a climatological context.
A Climatology of Frozen-In Anticyclones in the Spring Arctic Stratosphere over the Period 1960-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Huret, Nathalie; Hauchecorne, Alain; Drouin, Marc-Antoine

2013-04-01

During springtime, following the stratospheric final warming, intrusions from low latitudes can become trapped at polar latitudes in long-lived anticyclones. Such "frozen-in" anticyclones (FrIACs) have occasionally been observed to persist as late as August, advected by summer easterlies. In this study, the high-resolution advection contour model MIMOSA is used to advect a pseudo-potential vorticity tracer. The model is driven by ERA-40 and the ERA-Interim reanalyses over the period 1960-2011. We first identify a remarkable FrIAC event in spring 2011. In addition, we developed a method to detect the characteristic size of low-latitude intrusions into the polar region at the time of the spring transition, over the period 1960-2011. Years are classified as either Type-A when the intrusions are small, or as Type-B when intrusions are large, potentially evolving into FrIACs. For a FrIAC to occur, we require an additional criterion based on the in-phase character of the core of the intrusions and the anticyclone. During the 52 analysed years, 9 events have been identified: 1 in the 1960s, 1 in the 1980s, 2 in the 1990s and 5 from 2002. FrIAC are predominantly long-lived intrusions, which occur in association with abrupt and early reversal to summer easterlies with a large heat flux pulse around the date of this wind reversal. Finally, the results are discussed in a climatological context.
Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.
Oceanographic Controls on the Variability of Ice-Shelf Basal Melting and Circulation of Glacial Meltwater in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, Satoshi; Jenkins, Adrian; Regan, Heather; Holland, Paul R.; Assmann, Karen M.; Whitt, Daniel B.; Van Wessem, Melchoir; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Reijmer, Carleen H.; Dutrieux, Pierre

2017-12-01

Ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment have thinned, accelerating the seaward flow of ice sheets upstream over recent decades. This imbalance is caused by an increase in the ocean-driven melting of the ice shelves. Observations and models show that the ocean heat content reaching the ice shelves is sensitive to the depth of thermocline, which separates the cool, fresh surface waters from warm, salty waters. Yet the processes controlling the variability of thermocline depth remain poorly constrained. Here we quantify the oceanic conditions and ocean-driven melting of Cosgrove, Pine Island Glacier (PIG), Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment from 1991 to 2014 using a general circulation model. Ice-shelf melting is coupled to variability in the wind field and the sea-ice motions over the continental shelf break and associated onshore advection of warm waters in deep troughs. The layer of warm, salty waters at the calving front of PIG and Thwaites is thicker in austral spring (June-October) than in austral summer (December-March), whereas the seasonal cycle at the calving front of Dotson is reversed. Furthermore, the ocean-driven melting in PIG is enhanced by an asymmetric response to changes in ocean heat transport anomalies at the continental shelf break: melting responds more rapidly to increases in ocean heat transport than to decreases. This asymmetry is caused by the inland deepening of bathymetry and the glacial meltwater circulation around the ice shelf.

How early can the seeding dates of spring wheat be under current and future climate in Saskatchewan, Canada?

PubMed

He, Yong; Wang, Hong; Qian, Budong; McConkey, Brian; DePauw, Ron

2012-01-01

Shorter growing season and water stress near wheat maturity are the main factors that presumably limit the yield potential of spring wheat due to late seeding in Saskatchewan, Canada. Advancing seeding dates can be a strategy to help producers mitigate the impact of climate change on spring wheat. It is unknown, however, how early farmers can seed while minimizing the risk of spring frost damage and the soil and machinery constraints. This paper explores early seeding dates of spring wheat on the Canadian Prairies under current and projected future climate. To achieve this, (i) weather records from 1961 to 1990 were gathered at three sites with different soil and climate conditions in Saskatchewan, Canada; (ii) four climate databases that included a baseline (treated as historic weather climate during the period of 1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios (2040-2069) developed by the Canadian global climate model (GCM) with the forcing of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1); (iii) seeding dates of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under baseline and projected future climate were predicted. Compared with the historical record of seeding dates, the predicted seeding dates were advanced under baseline climate for all sites using our seeding date model. Driven by the predicted temperature increase of the scenarios compared with baseline climate, all climate change scenarios projected significantly earlier seeding dates than those currently used. Compared to the baseline conditions, there is no reduction in grain yield because precipitation increases during sensitive growth stages of wheat, suggesting that there is potential to shift seeding to an earlier date. The average advancement of seeding dates varied among sites and chosen scenarios. The Swift Current (south-west) site has the highest potential for earlier seeding (7 to 11 days) whereas such advancement was small in the Melfort (north-east, 2 to 4 days) region. The extent of projected climate change in Saskatchewan indicates that growers in this region have the potential of earlier seeding. The results obtained in this study may be used for adaptation assessments of seeding dates under possible climate change to mitigate the impact of potential warming.
Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhu, Zaichun; Liu, Yongwen; Liu, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Piao, Shilong

2016-11-01

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr -1 . Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H.; Zhu, Zaichun; Liu, Yongwen; Liu, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A.; Piao, Shilong

2017-04-01

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the northern hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e. temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed trend towards later EOS in 70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days per year. Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates (SOS) on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.
Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

2015-01-01

The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.
Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

2015-12-01

Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.
Snow-atmosphere coupling and its impact on temperature variability and extremes over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diro, G. T.; Sushama, L.; Huziy, O.

2018-04-01

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40-60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.
Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2006-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.
The Great Plains low-level jet in 1.5C and 2C HAPPI simulations: Implications for changes in extreme climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, S. J.; Barcikowska, M. J.

2017-12-01

Global temperature targets have become the cornerstone for global climate policy discussions. Given the goal of the Paris Accord to limit the rise in global mean temperature to well below 2.0oC above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5oC goal, there is increasing focus in the climate science community on what the relative changes in regional climate extremes may be for these two scenarios. Despite the successes of major climate science modeling efforts, there is still a significant information gap regarding the regional and seasonal changes in some climate extremes over the U.S. as a function of these global mean temperature targets.During the spring and summer, large amounts of heat and moisture are transported northward into the central and eastern U.S. by the Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ) - an atmospheric river which dominates the subcontinental scale climate variability during the warm half of the year. Accordingly, the GPLLJ and its vast spatiotemporal variability is highly influential over several types of extreme climate anomalies east of the Rocky Mountains, including, drought and pluvial events, tornadic activity, and the evolution of central U.S warming hole. Changes in the GPLLJ and its variability are probed from the perspective of several hundred climate realizations afforded by the availability of climate model experiments from the Half a degree additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) effort - a suite of multi-model ensemble AMIP simulations forced by 1.5oC and 2oC levels of global warming. The multimodel analysis focuses on the variable magnitude of the seasonal changes in the mean GPLLJ and shifts in the extremes of the prominent modes of GPLLJ variability - both of which have implications for the future shifts in extreme climate events over the Great Plains, Midwest, and southeast regions of the U.S.
Climate to fish: Synthesizing field work, data and models in a 39-year retrospective analysis of seasonal processes on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, Ivonne; Aydin, Kerim; Hermann, Albert J.; Gibson, Georgina A.; Punt, André E.; Wiese, Francis K.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Ferm, Nissa; Buckley, Troy W.; Moffitt, Elizabeth A.; Ianelli, James N.; Murphy, James; Dalton, Michael; Cheng, Wei; Wang, Muyin; Hedstrom, Kate; Bond, Nicholas A.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Boyd, Charlotte

2016-12-01

We combined field data and the output from a climate-to-fish coupled biophysical model to calculate weekly climatologies and 1971-2009 time series of physical and biological drivers for 16 distinct regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope. We focus on spatial trends and physical-biological interactions as a framework to compare model output to localized or season-specific observations. Data on pollock (≥8 cm) diet were used to evaluate energy flows and zooplankton dynamics predicted by the model. Model validation shows good agreement to sea-ice cover albeit with a one month delay in ice retreat. Likewise, the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms in the model were delayed approximately one month in the south and extend further into summer, but the relative timing between the spring and fall bloom peaks was consistent with observations. Ice-related primary producers may shift the timing of the spring bloom maximum biomass earlier in years when sea ice was still present after mid-March in the southern regions. Including the effects of explicit, dynamic fish predation on zooplankton in the model shifts the seasonal spring peak and distribution of zooplankton later in the year relative to simulations with implicit predation dependent only on zooplankton biomass and temperature; the former capturing the dynamic demand on zooplankton prey by fish. Pollock diets based on stomach samples collected in late fall and winter from 1982-2013 show overwintering euphausiids and small pollock as key prey items in the outer and southern Bering Sea shelf; a characteristic not currently present in the model. The model captured two large-scale gradients, supported by field data, characterizing the overall dynamics: 1) inshore to off-shelf physical and biological differences with a gradient in inter-annual variability from higher frequency inshore to lower frequency offshore; and 2) latitudinal gradients in the timing of events. The combined effects of length of day, bathymetry, and tides, which are consistent from year to year, and the two large-scale gradients, characterize the environment on which regional differences were based and restrict their inter-annual and seasonal variability. Thus, the relative timing and sequence of events remained consistent within regions. The combination of model outputs and observational data revealed specific ecosystem processes: (1) The spatial progression in the timing, peaks and sequence of events over the shelf is driven by wind, sea ice, and stratification and creates a seasonal expansion and contraction of the warmer pelagic and bottom habitat suitable to pollock. (2) The seasonal warming of air temperature and the spring-summer expansion of the warm pelagic and bottom habitats influence the ice retreat and the associated ice edge and open water spring blooms, as well as subsequent production/abundance of copepods and euphausiids. (3) These warmer conditions favor pelagic energy flows to pollock (≥10 cm) and allow their distribution to expand shoreward and northward along the shelf break. (4) The fall-winter expansion of the seasonal ice cover drives the contraction of warmer waters towards the outer and southwest shelf and favors benthic energy flows over most of the shelf. There, fall blooms allow for additional lipid storage by large copepods and euphausiids that sink close to the bottom where they either go into diapause or have a restricted diel migration over winter. (5) During these cold months, the preferred pollock habitat shifts and contracts towards the outer and southwest shelf where their increased density and reduced prey availability leads to winter pollock cannibalism and consumption of overwintering euphausiids. Our project highlights the benefits of linking continuous and long-term field work with the development and implementation of highly complex models. In the face of uncertainty, simulations such as these, tightly coupled to field programs, will be instrumental as testbeds for process exploration and management evaluation, increasing their relevance for future fisheries and ecosystem management and strategic planning.
Toxicity of Selected Mosquito Sprays to Channel Catfish Sac Fry

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the spring when channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus, hatcheries are in full operation, the associated moisture and warm temperatures provide a haven for mosquitoes. Large swarms of biting mosquitoes in a hatchery can make the tedious work of egg-picking (i.e., removing dead and fungus-infested e...
Agroecological niches and thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) dynamics

Treesearch

Michael E. Irwin

1991-01-01

In 1975, Illinois experienced an exceptionally mild winter, followed by a warm spring. This sequence of climatic events resulted in a massive outbreak of the soybean thrips, Sericothrips variabilis (Beach), along with large numbers of the flower thrips, Frankliniella tritici (Fitch). The outbreak covered an area of over 600...
Nitrogen transformations in response to temperature and rainfall manipulation in oak savanna: A global change experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellman, R. L.; Boutton, T. W.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Volder, A.; Briske, D. D.

2013-12-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to elevate global surface air temperatures by 1.1 to 6.4°C by the end of the century, and potentially magnify the intensity and variability of seasonal precipitation distribution. The mid-latitude grasslands of North America are predicted to experience substantial modification in precipitation regimes, with a shift towards drier summers and wetter spring and fall seasons. Despite these predictions, little is known concerning the effects of these global climate change drivers or their potential interactive effects on nitrogen (N) cycling processes. The purpose of this study is to quantify seasonal variation in rates of N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching in soil subjected to experimental warming and rainfall manipulation. Research was conducted at the Texas A&M Warming and Rainfall Manipulation (WaRM) Site in College Station where eight 9x18m rainout shelters and two unsheltered controls were established in post oak savanna in 2003. Replicate annual rainfall redistribution treatments (n = 4) are applied at the shelter level (long term mean vs. 40% of summer redistributed to fall and spring with same annual total). Warming treatments (ambient vs. 24-hr IR canopy warming of 1-3°C) were applied to planted monocultures of juniper and little bluestem, and a juniper-grass combination. Both juniper and little bluestem are key species within the post oak savanna region. Plots were sampled from the full factorial design during years six and seven of the WaRM experiment. Soil N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching were assessed quarterly for two years using the resin core incubation method. Rainfall, species composition, and time interacted significantly to influence both ammonification and nitrification. Highest rates of ammonification (0.115 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred in grass monocultures during summer in the control rainfall plots, whereas highest rates of nitrification (1.581 mg NO2-/NO3- -N/ kg soil/day) were in juniper monocultures during fall and spring in redistributed rainfall treatments. Lowest rates of ammonification (0.002 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred under grass during fall and winter in redistributed rainfall plots, while lowest rates of nitrification (-0.016 mg NO2-/NO3- -N/ kg soil/day) were in juniper-grass mixtures during fall and winter in redistributed rainfall plots. Losses of N through leaching were highest in the same treatment combinations that had high rates of nitrification. Results indicate that while rainfall redistribution interacted strongly with other experimental treatments to influence rates of N-transformations, warming had little effect. These changes in rates of N-transformations and leaching losses in response to global change drivers may have important implications for net primary production, soil fertility, carbon storage, trace gas fluxes, water quality, interspecific interactions, and vegetation dynamics in the oak savanna region of North America.
Distribution of living radiolarians and its response on the environments in spring from the section South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Hu, W.; Chen, M.; Zeng, L.; Xiang, R.; Zhou, W.

2013-12-01

The composition and spatial (horizontal and vertical) distribution of living radiolarians in spring was firstly studied in the section (18°N and 113°E) South China Sea. Vertical plankton tows were collected at depth-intervals from 0 to 300 m in spring using a closing-type net with 62 um mesh size. And we distinguished the living specimens by staining with Rose Bengal. It dominated by tropical-subtropical warm species in spring from the studied areas. The abundance of nassellarians was the almost same as that of spumellarians in the upper-surface waters (0-25m). In the below-surface waters (25-50m), nassellarian abundance was the almost twice that of spumellarians. And the abundances generally decreased with depth (more than 50m), but nasselarian abundance reduced more quickly. The results showed that the horizontal and vertical distribution patterns of living radiolarians were closely related to the mesoscale eddies. The horizontal distributions of radiolarian abundance were uneven and pachy, which may be related to the complicated mecoscale eddies during the sampling period. That is, there were comparatively high abundances in the upper-surface waters where had the cold eddies development. But in the cold eddies of Meigong River mouth, radiolarian abundance was low due to the large input of fresh water, suggesting that low salinity had more important influence than the nutrient on the radiolarian development and reproduction. Vertically, the highest abundances occurred at the mixed layer in the cold eddies, and gradually decreased with depth. However, in the warm eddies, the maximum abundances were in the thermocline layers, where had an abundant supply of nutrients for radiolarians. This study showed that Didymocyrtis tetrathalamus tetrathalamus mostly occurred at the mixed layer, which should be closely related to the cold eddies and rich nutrition and be limited by the fresh water. Based on the distribution of Didymocyrtis tetrathalamus tetrathalamus, we concluded that the influence of west Pacific waters was obviously weak on the northwestern Luzon Island during the sampling period. As a tropical surface warm species, Tetrapyle octacantha was also found to be indicator of tropical upwelling eutrophication water. Acanthodesmia vinculata was mainly living in the mixed layer, and had a good response to the cold eddies far away the continental shelf. Besides, we also concluded that Siphonosphaera polysiphonia should be tropical surface warm species, having a gregarious life, which had a closely related to the warm eddies. Interestingly, the typical deep-dwellers (Cornutella profunda and Cyrtopera laguncula) occurred in the different depth intervals, even in the upper-surface waters, which suggested that the temperature might not be the mostly one of factors to control their living-depth. This study was funded by the following research programs: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41276051, 91228207, 40906030).
Increasing trend in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikkonen, Santtu; Laine, Marko; Mäkelä, Hanna M.; Gregow, Hilppa; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Lahtinen, Matti; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 ° C since the mid-19th century. It has been shown that this increase is statistically significant and that it can, for the most part, be attributed to human-induced climate change (IPCC 2007). A temperature increase is obvious also in regional and local temperatures in many parts of the world. However, compared with the global average temperature, the regional and local temperatures exhibit higher levels of noise, which has largely been removed from the global temperature due to the higher level of averaging. Because Finland is located in northern latitudes, it is subject to the polar amplification of climate change-induced warming, which is due to the enhanced melting of snow and ice and other feedback mechanisms. Therefore, warming in Finland is expected to be approximately 50% higher than the global average. Conversely, the location of Finland between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Eurasia causes the weather to be very variable, and thus the temperature signal is rather noisy. The change in mean temperature in Finland was investigated with Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 165 years. The data consisted of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the DLM models. We found that the Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen clearly over 2° C in the years 1847-2012, which amounts to 0.16 ° C/decade. The warming rate before 1940's was close to the linear trend for the whole period, whereas the temperature change in the mid-20th century was negligible. However, the warming after the late 1960s has been remarkably fast. The model indicates that within the last 40 years the rate of change has been as high as 0.30 ° C/decade. The increase in temperature has been highest in spring and in late autumn but the change in summer months has not been so evident. The observed warming is somewhat higher than the global trend, which confirms the assumption that warming is stronger in higher latitudes.
Enhanced Surface Warming and Accelerated Snow Melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau Induced by Absorbing Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lee, Woo-Seop

2010-01-01

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.
Microbial community composition and endolith colonization at an Arctic thermal spring are driven by calcite precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starke, Verena; Kirshtein, Julie; Fogel, Marilyn L.; Steele, Andrew

2013-01-01

Environmental conditions shape community composition. Arctic thermal springs provide an opportunity to study how environmental gradients can impose strong selective pressures on microbial communities and provide a continuum of niche opportunities. We use microscopic and molecular methods to conduct a survey of microbial community composition at Troll Springs on Svalbard, Norway, in the high Arctic. Microorganisms there exist under a wide range of environmental conditions: in warm water as periphyton, in moist granular materials, and in cold, dry rock as endoliths. Troll Springs has two distinct ecosystems, aquatic and terrestrial, together in close proximity, with different underlying environmental factors shaping each microbial community. Periphyton are entrapped during precipitation of calcium carbonate from the spring's waters, providing microbial populations that serve as precursors for the development of endolithic communities. This process differs from most endolith colonization, in which the rock predates the communities that colonize it. Community composition is modulated as environmental conditions change within the springs. At Troll, the aquatic environments show a small number of dominant operational taxonomic units (OTUs) that are specific to each sample. The terrestrial environments show a more even distribution of OTUs common to multiple samples.
Regional-scale yield simulations using crop and climate models: assessing uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and adaptation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, A. J.

2010-12-01

Recent progress in assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on crops using multiple regional-scale simulations of crop and climate (i.e. ensembles) is presented. Simulations for India and China used perturbed responses to elevated carbon dioxide constrained using observations from FACE studies and controlled environments. Simulations with crop parameter sets representing existing and potential future adapted varieties were also carried out. The results for India are compared to sensitivity tests on two other crop models. For China, a parallel approach used socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation. Results for the USA analysed cardinal temperatures under a range of local warming scenarios for 2711 varieties of spring wheat. The results are as follows: 1. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty. The relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes is examined. The observational constraints from FACE and controlled environment studies are shown to be the likely critical factor in maintaining relatively low crop parameter uncertainty. Without these constraints, crop simulation uncertainty in a doubled CO2 environment would likely be greater than uncertainty in simulating climate. However, consensus across crop models in India varied across different biophysical processes. 2. The response of yield to changes in local mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. 3. Implications for adaptation. China. The simulations of spring wheat in China show the relative importance of tolerance to water and heat stress in avoiding future crop failures. The greatest potential for reducing the number of harvests less than one standard deviation below the baseline mean yield value comes from alleviating water stress; the greatest potential for reducing harvests less than two standard deviations below the mean comes from alleviation of heat stress. The socio-economic analysis suggests that adaptation is also possible through measures such as greater investment. India. The simulations of groundnut in India identified regions where heat stress will play an increasing role in limiting crop yields, and other regions where crops with greater thermal time requirement will be needed. The simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. USA. Analysis of spring wheat in the USA showed that at +2oC of local warming, 87% of the 2711 varieties examined, and all of the five most common varieties, could be used to maintain the crop duration of the current climate (i.e. successful adaptation to mean warming). At +4o this fell to 54% of all varieties, and two of the top five. 4. Future research. The results, and the limitations of the study, suggest directions for research to link climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses and crop variety trial data in order to prioritise adaptation options such as capacity building, plant breeding and biotechnology.
Ancient Hydrothermal Springs in Arabia Terra, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oehler, Dorothy Z.; Allen, Carlton C.

2008-01-01

Hydrothermal springs are important astrobiological sites for several reasons: 1) On Earth, molecular phylogeny suggests that many of the most primitive organisms are hyperthermophiles, implying that life on this planet may have arisen in hydrothermal settings; 2) on Mars, similar settings would have supplied energy- and nutrient-rich waters in which early martian life may have evolved; 3) such regions on Mars would have constituted oases of continued habitability providing warm, liquid water to primitive life forms as the planet became colder and drier; and 4) mineralization associated with hydrothermal settings could have preserved biosignatures from those martian life forms. Accordingly, if life ever developed on Mars, then hydrothermal spring deposits would be excellent localities in which to search for morphological or chemical remnants of that life. Previous attempts to identify martian spring deposits from orbit have been general or limited by resolution of available data. However, new satellite imagery from HiRISE has a resolution of 28 cm/pixel which allows detailed analysis of geologic structure and geomorphology. Based on these new data, we report several features in Vernal Crater, Arabia Terra that we interpret as ancient hydrothermal springs.
Drivers of leaf-out phenology and their implications for species invasions: insights from Thoreau's Concord.

PubMed

Polgar, Caroline; Gallinat, Amanda; Primack, Richard B

2014-04-01

To elucidate climate-driven changes in leaf-out phenology and their implications for species invasions, we observed and experimentally manipulated leaf out of invasive and native woody plants in Concord, MA, USA. Using observations collected by Henry David Thoreau (1852-1860) and our own observations (2009-2013), we analyzed changes in leaf-out timing and sensitivity to temperature for 43 woody plant species. We experimentally tested winter chilling requirements of 50 species by exposing cut branches to warm indoor temperatures (22°C) during the winter and spring of 2013. Woody species are now leafing out an average of 18 d earlier than they did in the 1850s, and are advancing at a rate of 5 ± 1 d °C(-1) . Functional groups differ significantly in the duration of chilling they require to leaf out: invasive shrubs generally have weaker chilling requirements than native shrubs and leaf out faster in the laboratory and earlier in the field; native trees have the strongest chilling requirements. Our results suggest that invasive shrub species will continue to have a competitive advantage as the climate warms, because native plants are slower to respond to warming spring temperatures and, in the future, may not meet their chilling requirements. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.
Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Hurlbert, Allen H.; Liang, Zhongfei

2012-01-01

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing. PMID:22384050

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