Real-time flutter boundary prediction based on time series models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Wenjing; Zhou, Li

2018-03-01

For the purpose of predicting the flutter boundary in real time during flutter flight tests, two time series models accompanied with corresponding stability criterion are adopted in this paper. The first method simplifies a long nonstationary response signal as many contiguous intervals and each is considered to be stationary. The traditional AR model is then established to represent each interval of signal sequence. While the second employs a time-varying AR model to characterize actual measured signals in flutter test with progression variable speed (FTPVS). To predict the flutter boundary, stability parameters are formulated by the identified AR coefficients combined with Jury's stability criterion. The behavior of the parameters is examined using both simulated and wind-tunnel experiment data. The results demonstrate that both methods show significant effectiveness in predicting the flutter boundary at lower speed level. A comparison between the two methods is also given in this paper.

A modeling framework for evaluating streambank stabilization practices for reach-scale sediment reduction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Streambank stabilization techniques are often implemented to reduce sediment loads from unstable streambanks. Process-based models can predict sediment yields with stabilization scenarios prior to implementation. However, a framework does not exist on how to effectively utilize these models to evalu...

Development of a Predictive Model for the Stabilizer Concentration Estimation in Microreservoir Transdermal Drug Delivery Systems Using Lipophilic Pressure-Sensitive Adhesives as Matrix/Carrier.

PubMed

Chenevas-Paule, Clémence; Wolff, Hans-Michael; Ashton, Mark; Schubert, Martin; Dodou, Kalliopi

2017-05-01

Microreservoir-type transdermal drug delivery systems (MTDDS) can prevent drug crystallization; however, no current predictive model considers the impact of drug load and hydration on their physical stability. We investigated MTDDS films containing polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) as polymeric drug stabilizer in lipophilic pressure-sensitive adhesive (silicone). Medicated and unmedicated silicone films with different molar N-vinylpyrrolidone:drug ratios were prepared and characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, scanning electron microscopy, microscopy, dynamic vapor sorption (DVS), and stability testing for 4 months at different storage conditions. Homogeneously distributed drug-PVP associates were observed when nonaqueous emulsions, containing drug-PVP (inner phase) and silicone adhesive (outer phase), were dried to films. DVS data were essential to predict physical stability at different humidities. A predictive thermodynamic model was developed based on drug-polymer hydrogen-bonding interactions, using the Hoffman equation, to estimate the drug-PVP ratio needed to obtain stable MTDDS and to evaluate the impact of humidity on their physical stability. This new approach considers the impact of polymorphism on drug solubility by using easily accessible experimental data (T m and DVS) and avoids uncertainties associated with the solubility parameter approach. In conclusion, a good fit of predicted and experimental data was observed. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of in vivo developmental toxicity by combination of Hand1-Luc embryonic stem cell test and metabolic stability test with clarification of metabolically inapplicable candidates.

PubMed

Nagahori, Hirohisa; Suzuki, Noriyuki; Le Coz, Florian; Omori, Takashi; Saito, Koichi

2016-09-30

Hand1-Luc Embryonic Stem Cell Test (Hand1-Luc EST) is a promising alternative method for evaluation of developmental toxicity. However, the problems of predictivity have remained due to appropriateness of the solubility, metabolic system, and prediction model. Therefore, we assessed the usefulness of rat liver S9 metabolic stability test using LC-MS/MS to develop new prediction model. A total of 71 chemicals were analyzed by measuring cytotoxicity and differentiation toxicity, and highly reproducible (CV=20%) results were obtained. The first prediction model was developed by discriminant analysis performed on a full dataset using Hand1-Luc EST, and 66.2% of the chemicals were correctly classified by the cross-validated classification. A second model was developed with additional descriptors obtained from the metabolic stability test to calculate hepatic availability, and an accuracy of 83.3% was obtained with applicability domain of 50.7% (=36/71) after exclusion of 22 metabolically inapplicable candidates, which potentially have a metabolic activation property. A step-wise prediction scheme with combination of Hand1-Luc EST and metabolic stability test was therefore proposed. The current results provide a promising in vitro test method for accurately predicting in vivo developmental toxicity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting 3D structure and stability of RNA pseudoknots in monovalent and divalent ion solutions.

PubMed

Shi, Ya-Zhou; Jin, Lei; Feng, Chen-Jie; Tan, Ya-Lan; Tan, Zhi-Jie

2018-06-01

RNA pseudoknots are a kind of minimal RNA tertiary structural motifs, and their three-dimensional (3D) structures and stability play essential roles in a variety of biological functions. Therefore, to predict 3D structures and stability of RNA pseudoknots is essential for understanding their functions. In the work, we employed our previously developed coarse-grained model with implicit salt to make extensive predictions and comprehensive analyses on the 3D structures and stability for RNA pseudoknots in monovalent/divalent ion solutions. The comparisons with available experimental data show that our model can successfully predict the 3D structures of RNA pseudoknots from their sequences, and can also make reliable predictions for the stability of RNA pseudoknots with different lengths and sequences over a wide range of monovalent/divalent ion concentrations. Furthermore, we made comprehensive analyses on the unfolding pathway for various RNA pseudoknots in ion solutions. Our analyses for extensive pseudokonts and the wide range of monovalent/divalent ion concentrations verify that the unfolding pathway of RNA pseudoknots is mainly dependent on the relative stability of unfolded intermediate states, and show that the unfolding pathway of RNA pseudoknots can be significantly modulated by their sequences and solution ion conditions.

Accurate prediction of vaccine stability under real storage conditions and during temperature excursions.

PubMed

Clénet, Didier

2018-04-01

Due to their thermosensitivity, most vaccines must be kept refrigerated from production to use. To successfully carry out global immunization programs, ensuring the stability of vaccines is crucial. In this context, two important issues are critical, namely: (i) predicting vaccine stability and (ii) preventing product damage due to excessive temperature excursions outside of the recommended storage conditions (cold chain break). We applied a combination of advanced kinetics and statistical analyses on vaccine forced degradation data to accurately describe the loss of antigenicity for a multivalent freeze-dried inactivated virus vaccine containing three variants. The screening of large amounts of kinetic models combined with a statistical model selection approach resulted in the identification of two-step kinetic models. Predictions based on kinetic analysis and experimental stability data were in agreement, with approximately five percentage points difference from real values for long-term stability storage conditions, after excursions of temperature and during experimental shipments of freeze-dried products. Results showed that modeling a few months of forced degradation can be used to predict various time and temperature profiles endured by vaccines, i.e. long-term stability, short time excursions outside the labeled storage conditions or shipments at ambient temperature, with high accuracy. Pharmaceutical applications of the presented kinetics-based approach are discussed. Copyright © 2018 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Facultative Stabilization Pond: Measuring Biological Oxygen Demand using Mathematical Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wira S, Ihsan; Sunarsih, Sunarsih

2018-02-01

Pollution is a man-made phenomenon. Some pollutants which discharged directly to the environment could create serious pollution problems. Untreated wastewater will cause contamination and even pollution on the water body. Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) is the amount of oxygen required for the oxidation by bacteria. The higher the BOD concentration, the greater the organic matter would be. The purpose of this study was to predict the value of BOD contained in wastewater. Mathematical modeling methods were chosen in this study to depict and predict the BOD values contained in facultative wastewater stabilization ponds. Measurements of sampling data were carried out to validate the model. The results of this study indicated that a mathematical approach can be applied to predict the BOD contained in the facultative wastewater stabilization ponds. The model was validated using Absolute Means Error with 10% tolerance limit, and AME for model was 7.38% (< 10%), so the model is valid. Furthermore, a mathematical approach can also be applied to illustrate and predict the contents of wastewater.

Validation of the measure automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-01

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized e...

[Effect of heat transfer in the packages on the stability of thiamine nitrate under uncontrolled temperature conditions].

PubMed

Nakamura, Toru; Yamaji, Takayuki; Takayama, Kozo

2013-01-01

To accurately predict the stability of thiamine nitrate as a model drug in pharmaceutical products under uncontrolled temperature conditions, the average reaction rate constant was determined, taking into account the heat transfer from the atmosphere to the product. The stability tests of thiamine nitrate in the three packages with different heat transfers were performed under non-isothermal conditions. The stability data observed were compared with the predictions based on a newly developed method, showing that the stability was well predicted by the method involving the heat transfer. By contrast, there were some deviations observed from the predicted data, without considering heat transfer in the packages with low heat transfer. The above-mentioned result clearly shows that heat transfer should be considered to ensure accurate prediction of the stability of commercial pharmaceutical products under non-isothermal atmospheres.

Combining Structural Modeling with Ensemble Machine Learning to Accurately Predict Protein Fold Stability and Binding Affinity Effects upon Mutation

PubMed Central

Garcia Lopez, Sebastian; Kim, Philip M.

2014-01-01

Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT) algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases. PMID:25243403

Prediction of chemical speciation in stabilized/solidified wastes using a general chemical equilibrium model. Part 1: Chemical representation of cementitious binders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, J.Y.; Batchelor, B.

1999-03-01

Chemical equilibrium models are useful to evaluate stabilized/solidified waste. A general equilibrium model, SOLTEQ, a modified version of MINTEQA2 for S/S, was applied to predict the chemical speciations in the stabilized/solidified waste form. A method was developed to prepare SOLTEQ input data that can chemically represent various stabilized/solidified binders. Taylor`s empirical model was used to describe partitioning of alkali ions. As a result, SOLTEQ could represent chemical speciation in pure binder systems such as ordinary Portland cement and ordinary Portland cement + fly ash. Moreover, SOLTEQ could reasonably describe the effects on the chemical speciation due to variations in water-to-cement,more » fly ash contents, and hydration times of various binder systems. However, this application of SOLTEQ was not accurate in predicting concentrations of Ca, Si, and SO{sub 4} ions, due to uncertainties in the CSH solubility model and K{sub sp} values of cement hydrates at high pH values.« less

Structure-activity relationships between sterols and their thermal stability in oil matrix.

PubMed

Hu, Yinzhou; Xu, Junli; Huang, Weisu; Zhao, Yajing; Li, Maiquan; Wang, Mengmeng; Zheng, Lufei; Lu, Baiyi

2018-08-30

Structure-activity relationships between 20 sterols and their thermal stabilities were studied in a model oil system. All sterol degradations were found to be consistent with a first-order kinetic model with determination of coefficient (R 2 ) higher than 0.9444. The number of double bonds in the sterol structure was negatively correlated with the thermal stability of sterol, whereas the length of the branch chain was positively correlated with the thermal stability of sterol. A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model to predict thermal stability of sterol was developed by using partial least squares regression (PLSR) combined with genetic algorithm (GA). A regression model was built with R 2 of 0.806. Almost all sterol degradation constants can be predicted accurately with R 2 of cross-validation equals to 0.680. Four important variables were selected in optimal QSAR model and the selected variables were observed to be related with information indices, RDF descriptors, and 3D-MoRSE descriptors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental investigation of condensation predictions for dust-enriched systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ustunisik, Gokce; Ebel, Denton S.; Walker, David; Boesenberg, Joseph S.

2014-10-01

Condensation models describe the equilibrium distribution of elements between coexisting phases (mineral solid solutions, silicate liquid, and vapor) in a closed chemical system, where the vapor phase is always present, using equations of state of the phases involved at a fixed total pressure (<1 bar) and temperature (T). The VAPORS code uses a CaO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 (CMAS) liquid model at T above the stability field of olivine, and the MELTS thermodynamics algorithm at lower T. Quenched high-T crystal + liquid assemblages are preserved in meteorites as Type B Ca-, Al-rich inclusions (CAIs), and olivine-rich ferromagnesian chondrules. Experimental tests of compositional regions within 100 K of the predicted T of olivine stability may clarify the nature of the phases present, the phase boundaries, and the partition of trace elements among these phases. Twenty-three Pt-loop equilibrium experiments in seven phase fields on twelve bulk compositions at specific T and dust enrichment factors tested the predicted stability fields of forsteritic olivine (Mg2SiO4), enstatite (MgSiO3), Cr-bearing spinel (MgAl2O4), perovskite (CaTiO3), melilite (Ca2Al2SiO7-Ca2Mg2Si2O7) and/or grossite (CaAl4O7) crystallizing from liquid. Experimental results for forsterite, enstatite, and grossite are in very good agreement with predictions, both in chemistry and phase abundances. On the other hand the stability of spinel with olivine, and stability of perovskite and gehlenite are quite different from predictions. Perovskite is absent in all experiments. Even at low oxygen fugacity (IW-3.4), the most TiO2-rich experiments do not crystallize Al-, Ti-bearing calcic pyroxene. The stability of spinel and olivine together is limited to a smaller phase field than is predicted. The melilite stability field is much larger than predicted, indicating a deficiency of current liquid or melilite activity models. In that respect, these experiments contribute to improving the data for calibrating thermodynamic models including MELTS.

One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

PubMed

Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

2015-01-01

One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

Development of a Predictive Model for the Long-Term Stability Assessment of Drug-In-Adhesive Transdermal Films Using Polar Pressure-Sensitive Adhesives as Carrier/Matrix.

PubMed

Chenevas-Paule, Clémence; Wolff, Hans-Michael; Ashton, Mark; Schubert, Martin; Dodou, Kalliopi

2017-05-01

Drug crystallization in transdermal drug delivery systems is a critical quality defect. The impact of drug load and hydration on the physical stability of polar (acrylic) drug-in-adhesive (DIA) films was investigated with the objective to identify predictive formulation parameters with respect to drug solubility and long-term stability. Medicated acrylic films were prepared over a range of drug concentrations below and above saturation solubility and were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, polarized microscopy, and dynamic vapor sorption (DVS) analysis. Physical stability of medicated films was monitored over 4 months under different storage conditions and was dependent on solubility parameters, Gibbs free energy for drug phase transition from the amorphous to the crystalline state, and relative humidity. DVS data, for assessing H-bonding capacity experimentally, were essential to predict physical stability at different humidities and were used together with Gibbs free energy change and the Hoffman equation to develop a new predictive thermodynamic model to estimate drug solubility and stability in DIA films taking into account relative humidity. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Dynamic Hydrology-Critical Zone Framework for Rainfall-triggered Landslide Hazard Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialynas, Y. G.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Dietrich, W. E.; Bras, R. L.

2017-12-01

Watershed-scale coupled hydrologic-stability models are still in their early stages, and are characterized by important limitations: (a) either they assume steady-state or quasi-dynamic watershed hydrology, or (b) they simulate landslide occurrence based on a simple one-dimensional stability criterion. Here we develop a three-dimensional landslide prediction framework, based on a coupled hydrologic-slope stability model and incorporation of the influence of deep critical zone processes (i.e., flow through weathered bedrock and exfiltration to the colluvium) for more accurate prediction of the timing, location, and extent of landslides. Specifically, a watershed-scale slope stability model that systematically accounts for the contribution of driving and resisting forces in three-dimensional hillslope segments was coupled with a spatially-explicit and physically-based hydrologic model. The landslide prediction framework considers critical zone processes and structure, and explicitly accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of surface and subsurface properties that control slope stability, including soil and weathered bedrock hydrological and mechanical characteristics, vegetation, and slope morphology. To test performance, the model was applied in landslide-prone sites in the US, the hydrology of which has been extensively studied. Results showed that both rainfall infiltration in the soil and groundwater exfiltration exert a strong control on the timing and magnitude of landslide occurrence. We demonstrate the extent to which three-dimensional slope destabilizing factors, which are modulated by dynamic hydrologic conditions in the soil-bedrock column, control landslide initiation at the watershed scale.

Loss terms in free-piston Stirling engine models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Lloyd B.

1992-01-01

Various models for free piston Stirling engines are reviewed. Initial models were developed primarily for design purposes and to predict operating parameters, especially efficiency. More recently, however, such models have been used to predict engine stability. Free piston Stirling engines have no kinematic constraints and stability may not only be sensitive to the load, but also to various nonlinear loss and spring constraints. The present understanding is reviewed of various loss mechanisms for free piston Stirling engines and how they have been incorporated into engine models is discussed.

On the Conditioning of Machine-Learning-Assisted Turbulence Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jinlong; Sun, Rui; Wang, Qiqi; Xiao, Heng

2017-11-01

Recently, several researchers have demonstrated that machine learning techniques can be used to improve the RANS modeled Reynolds stress by training on available database of high fidelity simulations. However, obtaining improved mean velocity field remains an unsolved challenge, restricting the predictive capability of current machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling approaches. In this work we define a condition number to evaluate the model conditioning of data-driven turbulence modeling approaches, and propose a stability-oriented machine learning framework to model Reynolds stress. Two canonical flows, the flow in a square duct and the flow over periodic hills, are investigated to demonstrate the predictive capability of the proposed framework. The satisfactory prediction performance of mean velocity field for both flows demonstrates the predictive capability of the proposed framework for machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling. With showing the capability of improving the prediction of mean flow field, the proposed stability-oriented machine learning framework bridges the gap between the existing machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling approaches and the demand of predictive capability of turbulence models in real applications.

Modeling and optimization of lime-based stabilization in high alkaline arsenic-bearing sludges with a central composite design.

PubMed

Lei, Jie; Peng, Bing; Min, Xiaobo; Liang, Yanjie; You, Yang; Chai, Liyuan

2017-04-16

This study focuses on the modeling and optimization of lime-based stabilization in high alkaline arsenic-bearing sludges (HAABS) and describes the relationship between the arsenic leachate concentration (ALC) and stabilization parameters to develop a prediction model for obtaining the optimal process parameters and conditions. A central composite design (CCD) along with response surface methodology (RSM) was conducted to model and investigate the stabilization process with three independent variables: the Ca/As mole ratio, reaction time and liquid/solid ratio, along with their interactions. The obvious characteristic changes of the HAABS before and after stabilization were verified by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), particle size distribution (PSD) and the community bureau of reference (BCR) sequential extraction procedure. A prediction model Y (ALC) with a statistically significant P-value <0.01 and high correlation coefficient R 2 = 93.22% was obtained. The optimal parameters were successfully predicted by the model for the minimum ALC of 0.312 mg/L, which was validated with the experimental result (0.306 mg/L). The XRD, SEM and PSD results indicated that crystal calcium arsenate Ca 5 (AsO 4 ) 3 OH and Ca 4 (OH) 2 (AsO 4 ) 2 ·4H 2 O formation played an important role in minimizing the ALC. The BCR sequential extraction results demonstrated that the treated HAABS were stable in a weak acidic environment for a short time but posed a potential environmental risk after a long time. The results clearly confirm that the proposed three-factor CCD is an effective approach for modeling the stabilization of HAABS. However, further solidification technology is suggested for use after lime-based stabilization treatment of arsenic-bearing sludges.

Rank Order Entropy: why one metric is not enough

PubMed Central

McLellan, Margaret R.; Ryan, M. Dominic; Breneman, Curt M.

2011-01-01

The use of Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship models to address problems in drug discovery has a mixed history, generally resulting from the mis-application of QSAR models that were either poorly constructed or used outside of their domains of applicability. This situation has motivated the development of a variety of model performance metrics (r2, PRESS r2, F-tests, etc) designed to increase user confidence in the validity of QSAR predictions. In a typical workflow scenario, QSAR models are created and validated on training sets of molecules using metrics such as Leave-One-Out or many-fold cross-validation methods that attempt to assess their internal consistency. However, few current validation methods are designed to directly address the stability of QSAR predictions in response to changes in the information content of the training set. Since the main purpose of QSAR is to quickly and accurately estimate a property of interest for an untested set of molecules, it makes sense to have a means at hand to correctly set user expectations of model performance. In fact, the numerical value of a molecular prediction is often less important to the end user than knowing the rank order of that set of molecules according to their predicted endpoint values. Consequently, a means for characterizing the stability of predicted rank order is an important component of predictive QSAR. Unfortunately, none of the many validation metrics currently available directly measure the stability of rank order prediction, making the development of an additional metric that can quantify model stability a high priority. To address this need, this work examines the stabilities of QSAR rank order models created from representative data sets, descriptor sets, and modeling methods that were then assessed using Kendall Tau as a rank order metric, upon which the Shannon Entropy was evaluated as a means of quantifying rank-order stability. Random removal of data from the training set, also known as Data Truncation Analysis (DTA), was used as a means for systematically reducing the information content of each training set while examining both rank order performance and rank order stability in the face of training set data loss. The premise for DTA ROE model evaluation is that the response of a model to incremental loss of training information will be indicative of the quality and sufficiency of its training set, learning method, and descriptor types to cover a particular domain of applicability. This process is termed a “rank order entropy” evaluation, or ROE. By analogy with information theory, an unstable rank order model displays a high level of implicit entropy, while a QSAR rank order model which remains nearly unchanged during training set reductions would show low entropy. In this work, the ROE metric was applied to 71 data sets of different sizes, and was found to reveal more information about the behavior of the models than traditional metrics alone. Stable, or consistently performing models, did not necessarily predict rank order well. Models that performed well in rank order did not necessarily perform well in traditional metrics. In the end, it was shown that ROE metrics suggested that some QSAR models that are typically used should be discarded. ROE evaluation helps to discern which combinations of data set, descriptor set, and modeling methods lead to usable models in prioritization schemes, and provides confidence in the use of a particular model within a specific domain of applicability. PMID:21875058

Traffic flow theory and chaotic behavior

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-03-01

Many commonly occurring natural systems are modeled with mathematical experessions and exhibit a certain stability. The inherent stability of these equations allows them to serve as the basis for engineering predictions. More complex models, such as ...

Humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation: The reference condition approach.

PubMed

Naveršnik, Klemen; Jurečič, Rok

2016-03-16

Accelerated and stress stability data is often used to predict shelf life of pharmaceuticals. Temperature, combined with humidity accelerates chemical decomposition and the Arrhenius equation is used to extrapolate accelerated stability results to long-term stability. Statistical estimation of the humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation is not straightforward due to its non-linearity. A two stage nonlinear fitting approach is used in practice, followed by a prediction stage. We developed a single-stage statistical procedure, called the reference condition approach, which has better statistical properties (less collinearity, direct estimation of uncertainty, narrower prediction interval) and is significantly easier to use, compared to the existing approaches. Our statistical model was populated with data from a 35-day stress stability study on a laboratory batch of vitamin tablets and required mere 30 laboratory assay determinations. The stability prediction agreed well with the actual 24-month long term stability of the product. The approach has high potential to assist product formulation, specification setting and stability statements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A molecular thermodynamic model for the stability of hepatitis B capsids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jehoon; Wu, Jianzhong

2014-06-01

Self-assembly of capsid proteins and genome encapsidation are two critical steps in the life cycle of most plant and animal viruses. A theoretical description of such processes from a physiochemical perspective may help better understand viral replication and morphogenesis thus provide fresh insights into the experimental studies of antiviral strategies. In this work, we propose a molecular thermodynamic model for predicting the stability of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) capsids either with or without loading nucleic materials. With the key components represented by coarse-grained thermodynamic models, the theoretical predictions are in excellent agreement with experimental data for the formation free energies of empty T4 capsids over a broad range of temperature and ion concentrations. The theoretical model predicts T3/T4 dimorphism also in good agreement with the capsid formation at in vivo and in vitro conditions. In addition, we have studied the stability of the viral particles in response to physiological cellular conditions with the explicit consideration of the hydrophobic association of capsid subunits, electrostatic interactions, molecular excluded volume effects, entropy of mixing, and conformational changes of the biomolecular species. The course-grained model captures the essential features of the HBV nucleocapsid stability revealed by recent experiments.

Euler Technology Assessment - SPLITFLOW Code Applications for Stability and Control Analysis on an Advanced Fighter Model Employing Innovative Control Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, Keith J.

1998-01-01

This report documents results from the NASA-Langley sponsored Euler Technology Assessment Study conducted by Lockheed-Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems (LMTAS). The purpose of the study was to evaluate the ability of the SPLITFLOW code using viscous and inviscid flow models to predict aerodynamic stability and control of an advanced fighter model. The inviscid flow model was found to perform well at incidence angles below approximately 15 deg, but not as well at higher angles of attack. The results using a turbulent, viscous flow model matched the trends of the wind tunnel data, but did not show significant improvement over the Euler solutions. Overall, the predictions were found to be useful for stability and control design purposes.

A log-sinh transformation for data normalization and variance stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D. E.; Pokhrel, P.

2012-05-01

When quantifying model prediction uncertainty, it is statistically convenient to represent model errors that are normally distributed with a constant variance. The Box-Cox transformation is the most widely used technique to normalize data and stabilize variance, but it is not without limitations. In this paper, a log-sinh transformation is derived based on a pattern of errors commonly seen in hydrological model predictions. It is suited to applications where prediction variables are positively skewed and the spread of errors is seen to first increase rapidly, then slowly, and eventually approach a constant as the prediction variable becomes greater. The log-sinh transformation is applied in two case studies, and the results are compared with one- and two-parameter Box-Cox transformations.

Molecular mobility in amorphous state: Implications on physical stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Sunny Piyush

Amorphous pharmaceuticals are desirable in drug development due to their advantageous biopharmaceutical properties of higher apparent aqueous solubility and dissolution rate. The main obstacle in their widespread use, however, is their higher physicochemical instability than their crystalline counterparts. The goal of the present research project was to investigate correlations between the molecular mobility and physical stability in model amorphous compounds. The objective was to identify the specific mobility which is responsible for the physical instability in each case. This will potentially enable the development of effective strategies for the stabilization of amorphous pharmaceuticals. Moreover, these correlations can be used to develop predictive models for the stability at the pharmaceutically relevant storage conditions. Subtraction of dc conductivity enabled the comprehensive characterization of molecular mobility in amorphous trehalose. This was followed by investigation of correlation between crystallization behavior and different relaxations. Global mobility was found to be strongly coupled to both crystallization onset time and rate. Different preparation methods imparted different mobility states to amorphous trehalose which was postulated to be the reason for the significant physical stability differences. Predictive models were developed and a good agreement was found between the predicted and the experimental crystallization onset times at temperatures around and below the glass transition temperature (Tg). Effect of annealing was investigated on water sorption, enthalpic recovery and dielectric relaxation times in amorphous trehalose. Global mobility was found to be linearly correlated to the water sorption potential which enabled the development of predictive models. Global mobility was also found to be strongly correlated to physical instability in amorphous itraconazole. Effect of polymer (PVP and HPMCAS) on itraconazole mobility and stability was also evaluated. Global mobility was found to be correlated to stability in both the solid dispersions. HPMCAS was found to be a better stabilizer than PVP due to its pronounced effect on global mobility.

A new method for the prediction of chatter stability lobes based on dynamic cutting force simulation model and support vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Chong; Wang, Lun; Liao, T. Warren

2015-10-01

Currently, chatter has become the critical factor in hindering machining quality and productivity in machining processes. To avoid cutting chatter, a new method based on dynamic cutting force simulation model and support vector machine (SVM) is presented for the prediction of chatter stability lobes. The cutting force is selected as the monitoring signal, and the wavelet energy entropy theory is used to extract the feature vectors. A support vector machine is constructed using the MATLAB LIBSVM toolbox for pattern classification based on the feature vectors derived from the experimental cutting data. Then combining with the dynamic cutting force simulation model, the stability lobes diagram (SLD) can be estimated. Finally, the predicted results are compared with existing methods such as zero-order analytical (ZOA) and semi-discretization (SD) method as well as actual cutting experimental results to confirm the validity of this new method.

Analysis and test evaluation of the dynamic stability of three advanced turboprop models at zero forward speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Arthur F.

1985-01-01

Results of static stability wind tunnel tests of three 62.2 cm (24.5 in) diameter models of the Prop-Fan are presented. Measurements of blade stresses were made with the Prop-Fans mounted on an isolated nacelle in an open 5.5 m (18 ft) wind tunnel test section with no tunnel flow. The tests were conducted in the United Technology Research Center Large Subsonic Wind Tunnel. Stall flutter was determined by regions of high stress, which were compared with predictions of boundaries of zero total viscous damping. The structural analysis used beam methods for the model with straight blades and finite element methods for the models with swept blades. Increasing blade sweep tends to suppress stall flutter. Comparisons with similar test data acquired at NASA/Lewis are good. Correlations between measured and predicted critical speeds for all the models are good. The trend of increased stability with increased blade sweep is well predicted. Calculated flutter boundaries generaly coincide with tested boundaries. Stall flutter is predicted to occur in the third (torsion) mode. The straight blade test shows third mode response, while the swept blades respond in other modes.

PredSTP: a highly accurate SVM based model to predict sequential cystine stabilized peptides.

PubMed

Islam, S M Ashiqul; Sajed, Tanvir; Kearney, Christopher Michel; Baker, Erich J

2015-07-05

Numerous organisms have evolved a wide range of toxic peptides for self-defense and predation. Their effective interstitial and macro-environmental use requires energetic and structural stability. One successful group of these peptides includes a tri-disulfide domain arrangement that offers toxicity and high stability. Sequential tri-disulfide connectivity variants create highly compact disulfide folds capable of withstanding a variety of environmental stresses. Their combination of toxicity and stability make these peptides remarkably valuable for their potential as bio-insecticides, antimicrobial peptides and peptide drug candidates. However, the wide sequence variation, sources and modalities of group members impose serious limitations on our ability to rapidly identify potential members. As a result, there is a need for automated high-throughput member classification approaches that leverage their demonstrated tertiary and functional homology. We developed an SVM-based model to predict sequential tri-disulfide peptide (STP) toxins from peptide sequences. One optimized model, called PredSTP, predicted STPs from training set with sensitivity, specificity, precision, accuracy and a Matthews correlation coefficient of 94.86%, 94.11%, 84.31%, 94.30% and 0.86, respectively, using 200 fold cross validation. The same model outperforms existing prediction approaches in three independent out of sample testsets derived from PDB. PredSTP can accurately identify a wide range of cystine stabilized peptide toxins directly from sequences in a species-agnostic fashion. The ability to rapidly filter sequences for potential bioactive peptides can greatly compress the time between peptide identification and testing structural and functional properties for possible antimicrobial and insecticidal candidates. A web interface is freely available to predict STP toxins from http://crick.ecs.baylor.edu/.

A combined-slip predictive control of vehicle stability with experimental verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalali, Milad; Hashemi, Ehsan; Khajepour, Amir; Chen, Shih-ken; Litkouhi, Bakhtiar

2018-02-01

In this paper, a model predictive vehicle stability controller is designed based on a combined-slip LuGre tyre model. Variations in the lateral tyre forces due to changes in tyre slip ratios are considered in the prediction model of the controller. It is observed that the proposed combined-slip controller takes advantage of the more accurate tyre model and can adjust tyre slip ratios based on lateral forces of the front axle. This results in an interesting closed-loop response that challenges the notion of braking only the wheels on one side of the vehicle in differential braking. The performance of the proposed controller is evaluated in software simulations and is compared to a similar pure-slip controller. Furthermore, experimental tests are conducted on a rear-wheel drive electric Chevrolet Equinox equipped with differential brakes to evaluate the closed-loop response of the model predictive control controller.

Laboratory evaluation of the pointing stability of the ASPS Vernier System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The annular suspension and pointing system (ASPS) is an end-mount experiment pointing system designed for use in the space shuttle. The results of the ASPS Vernier System (AVS) pointing stability tests conducted in a laboratory environment are documented. A simulated zero-G suspension was used to support the test payload in the laboratory. The AVS and the suspension were modelled and incorporated into a simulation of the laboratory test. Error sources were identified and pointing stability sensitivities were determined via simulation. Statistical predictions of laboratory test performance were derived and compared to actual laboratory test results. The predicted mean pointing stability during simulated shuttle disturbances was 1.22 arc seconds; the actual mean laboratory test pointing stability was 1.36 arc seconds. The successful prediction of laboratory test results provides increased confidence in the analytical understanding of the AVS magnetic bearing technology and allows confident prediction of in-flight performance. Computer simulations of ASPS, operating in the shuttle disturbance environment, predict in-flight pointing stability errors less than 0.01 arc seconds.

Analysis of Chatter Stability in Facing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebdani, S.; Sahli, A.; Rahmani, O.; Boutchicha, D.; Belarbi, A.

This study attempts to develop a chatter model for predicting chatter stability conditions in hard turning. A linear model is developed by introducing non-uniform load distribution on a tool tip to account for the flank wear effect. Stability analysis based on the root locus method and the harmonic balance method is conducted to determine a critical stability parameter. To validate the model, a series of experiment is carried out to determine the stability limits as well as certain characteristic parameters for facing and straight turning. Chatter in hard turning has the feature that the critical stability limits increase very rapidly when the cutting speed is higher than 13 rev sec-1 for all feed directions. The main contributions of the study are threefold. First, chatter-free cutting conditions are predicted and can be used as a guideline for designing tools and machines. Second, the characteristics of chatter in hard turning, which is observed for the first time, helps to broaden our physical understanding of the interactions between the tool and the workpiece in hard turning. Third, experimental stability limits for different flank wear can contribute to lead more reasonable ways to consider the flank wear effect in chatter models of hard turning. Based on these contributions, the proposed linear chatter model will support to improve the productivity in many manufacturing processes. In addition, the chatter experimental data will be useful to develop other chatter models in hard turning.

Prediction of slope stability based on numerical modeling of stress–strain state of rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozhogulov Nifadyev, KCh, VI; Usmanov, SF

2018-03-01

The paper presents the developed technique for the estimation of rock mass stability based on the finite element modeling of stress–strain state of rocks. The modeling results on the pit wall landslide as a flow of particles along a sloped surface are described.

Assessing the stability of human locomotion: a review of current measures

PubMed Central

Bruijn, S. M.; Meijer, O. G.; Beek, P. J.; van Dieën, J. H.

2013-01-01

Falling poses a major threat to the steadily growing population of the elderly in modern-day society. A major challenge in the prevention of falls is the identification of individuals who are at risk of falling owing to an unstable gait. At present, several methods are available for estimating gait stability, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. In this paper, we review the currently available measures: the maximum Lyapunov exponent (λS and λL), the maximum Floquet multiplier, variability measures, long-range correlations, extrapolated centre of mass, stabilizing and destabilizing forces, foot placement estimator, gait sensitivity norm and maximum allowable perturbation. We explain what these measures represent and how they are calculated, and we assess their validity, divided up into construct validity, predictive validity in simple models, convergent validity in experimental studies, and predictive validity in observational studies. We conclude that (i) the validity of variability measures and λS is best supported across all levels, (ii) the maximum Floquet multiplier and λL have good construct validity, but negative predictive validity in models, negative convergent validity and (for λL) negative predictive validity in observational studies, (iii) long-range correlations lack construct validity and predictive validity in models and have negative convergent validity, and (iv) measures derived from perturbation experiments have good construct validity, but data are lacking on convergent validity in experimental studies and predictive validity in observational studies. In closing, directions for future research on dynamic gait stability are discussed. PMID:23516062

Comparisons of Predictions of the XB-70-1 Longitudinal Stability and Control Derivatives with Flight Results for Six Flight Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolowicz, C. H.; Yancey, R. B.

1973-01-01

Preliminary correlations of flight-determined and predicted stability and control characteristics of the XB-70-1 reported in NASA TN D-4578 were subject to uncertainties in several areas which necessitated a review of prediction techniques particularly for the longitudinal characteristics. Reevaluation and updating of the original predictions, including aeroelastic corrections, for six specific flight-test conditions resulted in improved correlations of static pitch stability with flight data. The original predictions for the pitch-damping derivative, on the other hand, showed better correlation with flight data than the updated predictions. It appears that additional study is required in the application of aeroelastic corrections to rigid model wind-tunnel data and the theoretical determination of dynamic derivatives for this class of aircraft.

Predicting the chemical stability of monatomic chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zheng-Zhe; Chen, Xi

2013-02-01

A simple model for evaluating the thermal atomic transfer rates in nanosystems (Lin Z.-Z. et al., EPL, 94 (2011) 40002) was developed to predict the chemical reaction rates of nanosystems with small gas molecules. The accuracy of the model was verified by MD simulations for molecular adsorption and desorption on a monatomic chain. By the prediction, a monatomic carbon chain should survive for 1.2 × 102 years in the ambient of 1 atm O2 at room temperature, and it is very invulnerable to N2, H2O, NO2, CO and CO2, while a monatomic gold chain quickly ruptures in vacuum. It is worth noting that since the model can be easily applied via common ab initio calculations, it could be widely used in the prediction of chemical stability of nanosystems.

CS-AMPPred: An Updated SVM Model for Antimicrobial Activity Prediction in Cysteine-Stabilized Peptides

PubMed Central

Porto, William F.; Pires, Állan S.; Franco, Octavio L.

2012-01-01

The antimicrobial peptides (AMP) have been proposed as an alternative to control resistant pathogens. However, due to multifunctional properties of several AMP classes, until now there has been no way to perform efficient AMP identification, except through in vitro and in vivo tests. Nevertheless, an indication of activity can be provided by prediction methods. In order to contribute to the AMP prediction field, the CS-AMPPred (Cysteine-Stabilized Antimicrobial Peptides Predictor) is presented here, consisting of an updated version of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for antimicrobial activity prediction in cysteine-stabilized peptides. The CS-AMPPred is based on five sequence descriptors: indexes of (i) α-helix and (ii) loop formation; and averages of (iii) net charge, (iv) hydrophobicity and (v) flexibility. CS-AMPPred was based on 310 cysteine-stabilized AMPs and 310 sequences extracted from PDB. The polynomial kernel achieves the best accuracy on 5-fold cross validation (85.81%), while the radial and linear kernels achieve 84.19%. Testing in a blind data set, the polynomial and radial kernels achieve an accuracy of 90.00%, while the linear model achieves 89.33%. The three models reach higher accuracies than previously described methods. A standalone version of CS-AMPPred is available for download at and runs on any Linux machine. PMID:23240023

Comparison of integrated clustering methods for accurate and stable prediction of building energy consumption data

DOE PAGES

Hsu, David

2015-09-27

Clustering methods are often used to model energy consumption for two reasons. First, clustering is often used to process data and to improve the predictive accuracy of subsequent energy models. Second, stable clusters that are reproducible with respect to non-essential changes can be used to group, target, and interpret observed subjects. However, it is well known that clustering methods are highly sensitive to the choice of algorithms and variables. This can lead to misleading assessments of predictive accuracy and mis-interpretation of clusters in policymaking. This paper therefore introduces two methods to the modeling of energy consumption in buildings: clusterwise regression,more » also known as latent class regression, which integrates clustering and regression simultaneously; and cluster validation methods to measure stability. Using a large dataset of multifamily buildings in New York City, clusterwise regression is compared to common two-stage algorithms that use K-means and model-based clustering with linear regression. Predictive accuracy is evaluated using 20-fold cross validation, and the stability of the perturbed clusters is measured using the Jaccard coefficient. These results show that there seems to be an inherent tradeoff between prediction accuracy and cluster stability. This paper concludes by discussing which clustering methods may be appropriate for different analytical purposes.« less

Vfold: a web server for RNA structure and folding thermodynamics prediction.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaojun; Zhao, Peinan; Chen, Shi-Jie

2014-01-01

The ever increasing discovery of non-coding RNAs leads to unprecedented demand for the accurate modeling of RNA folding, including the predictions of two-dimensional (base pair) and three-dimensional all-atom structures and folding stabilities. Accurate modeling of RNA structure and stability has far-reaching impact on our understanding of RNA functions in human health and our ability to design RNA-based therapeutic strategies. The Vfold server offers a web interface to predict (a) RNA two-dimensional structure from the nucleotide sequence, (b) three-dimensional structure from the two-dimensional structure and the sequence, and (c) folding thermodynamics (heat capacity melting curve) from the sequence. To predict the two-dimensional structure (base pairs), the server generates an ensemble of structures, including loop structures with the different intra-loop mismatches, and evaluates the free energies using the experimental parameters for the base stacks and the loop entropy parameters given by a coarse-grained RNA folding model (the Vfold model) for the loops. To predict the three-dimensional structure, the server assembles the motif scaffolds using structure templates extracted from the known PDB structures and refines the structure using all-atom energy minimization. The Vfold-based web server provides a user friendly tool for the prediction of RNA structure and stability. The web server and the source codes are freely accessible for public use at "http://rna.physics.missouri.edu".

Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices.

PubMed

Li, Zhigang; Liu, Boying; Yuan, Mengxiong; Zhang, Feifei; Guo, Jiaqiang

2016-01-01

Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information.

Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices

PubMed Central

Li, Zhigang; Liu, Boying; Yuan, Mengxiong; Zhang, Feifei; Guo, Jiaqiang

2016-01-01

Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information. PMID:27907188

Aeroservoelastic Model Validation and Test Data Analysis of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.; Prazenica, Richard J.

2003-01-01

Model validation and flight test data analysis require careful consideration of the effects of uncertainty, noise, and nonlinearity. Uncertainty prevails in the data analysis techniques and results in a composite model uncertainty from unmodeled dynamics, assumptions and mechanics of the estimation procedures, noise, and nonlinearity. A fundamental requirement for reliable and robust model development is an attempt to account for each of these sources of error, in particular, for model validation, robust stability prediction, and flight control system development. This paper is concerned with data processing procedures for uncertainty reduction in model validation for stability estimation and nonlinear identification. F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) aircraft data is used to demonstrate signal representation effects on uncertain model development, stability estimation, and nonlinear identification. Data is decomposed using adaptive orthonormal best-basis and wavelet-basis signal decompositions for signal denoising into linear and nonlinear identification algorithms. Nonlinear identification from a wavelet-based Volterra kernel procedure is used to extract nonlinear dynamics from aeroelastic responses, and to assist model development and uncertainty reduction for model validation and stability prediction by removing a class of nonlinearity from the uncertainty.

Lightweight ZERODUR: Validation of Mirror Performance and Mirror Modeling Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hull, Tony; Stahl, H. Philip; Westerhoff, Thomas; Valente, Martin; Brooks, Thomas; Eng, Ron

2017-01-01

Upcoming spaceborne missions, both moderate and large in scale, require extreme dimensional stability while relying both upon established lightweight mirror materials, and also upon accurate modeling methods to predict performance under varying boundary conditions. We describe tests, recently performed at NASA's XRCF chambers and laboratories in Huntsville Alabama, during which a 1.2 m diameter, f/1.2988% lightweighted SCHOTT lightweighted ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror was tested for thermal stability under static loads in steps down to 230K. Test results are compared to model predictions, based upon recently published data on ZERODUR(TradeMark). In addition to monitoring the mirror surface for thermal perturbations in XRCF Thermal Vacuum tests, static load gravity deformations have been measured and compared to model predictions. Also the Modal Response(dynamic disturbance) was measured and compared to model. We will discuss the fabrication approach and optomechanical design of the ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror substrate by SCHOTT, its optical preparation for test by Arizona Optical Systems (AOS). Summarize the outcome of NASA's XRCF tests and model validations

Lightweight ZERODUR®: Validation of mirror performance and mirror modeling predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hull, Anthony B.; Stahl, H. Philip; Westerhoff, Thomas; Valente, Martin; Brooks, Thomas; Eng, Ron

2017-01-01

Upcoming spaceborne missions, both moderate and large in scale, require extreme dimensional stability while relying both upon established lightweight mirror materials, and also upon accurate modeling methods to predict performance under varying boundary conditions. We describe tests, recently performed at NASA’s XRCF chambers and laboratories in Huntsville Alabama, during which a 1.2m diameter, f/1.29 88% lightweighted SCHOTT lightweighted ZERODUR® mirror was tested for thermal stability under static loads in steps down to 230K. Test results are compared to model predictions, based upon recently published data on ZERODUR®. In addition to monitoring the mirror surface for thermal perturbations in XRCF Thermal Vacuum tests, static load gravity deformations have been measured and compared to model predictions. Also the Modal Response (dynamic disturbance) was measured and compared to model. We will discuss the fabrication approach and optomechanical design of the ZERODUR® mirror substrate by SCHOTT, its optical preparation for test by Arizona Optical Systems (AOS), and summarize the outcome of NASA’s XRCF tests and model validations.

A Case Study on a Combination NDVI Forecasting Model Based on the Entropy Weight Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Ming, Bo; Huang, Qiang

It is critically meaningful to accurately predict NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which helps guide regional ecological remediation and environmental managements. In this study, a combination forecasting model (CFM) was proposed to improve the performance of NDVI predictions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on three individual forecasting models, i.e., the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. The entropy weight method was employed to determine the weight coefficient for each individual model depending on its predictive performance. Results showed that: (1) ANN exhibits the highest fitting capability among the four orecastingmore » models in the calibration period, whilst its generalization ability becomes weak in the validation period; MLR has a poor performance in both calibration and validation periods; the predicted results of CFM in the calibration period have the highest stability; (2) CFM generally outperforms all individual models in the validation period, and can improve the reliability and stability of predicted results through combining the strengths while reducing the weaknesses of individual models; (3) the performances of all forecasting models are better in dense vegetation areas than in sparse vegetation areas.« less

Technique for predicting high-frequency stability characteristics of gaseous-propellant combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Priem, R. J.; Jefferson, Y. S. Y.

1973-01-01

A technique for predicting the stability characteristics of a gaseous-propellant rocket combustion system is developed based on a model that assumes coupling between the flow through the injector and the oscillating chamber pressure. The theoretical model uses a lumped parameter approach for the flow elements in the injection system plus wave dynamics in the combustion chamber. The injector flow oscillations are coupled to the chamber pressure oscillations with a delay time. Frequency and decay (or growth) rates are calculated for various combustor design and operating parameters to demonstrate the influence of various parameters on stability. Changes in oxidizer design parameters had a much larger influence on stability than a similar change in fuel parameters. A complete description of the computer program used to make these calculations is given in an appendix.

Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

Combustion stability with baffles, absorbers and velocity sensitive combustion. [liquid propellant rocket combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, C. E.

1980-01-01

Analytical and computational techniques were developed to predict the stability behavior of liquid propellant rocket combustors using damping devices such as acoustic liners, slot absorbers, and injector face baffles. Models were developed to determine the frequency and decay rate of combustor oscillations, the spatial and temporal pressure waveforms, and the stability limits in terms of combustion response model parameters.

An empirical propellant response function for combustion stability predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hessler, R. O.

1980-01-01

An empirical response function model was developed for ammonium perchlorate propellants to supplant T-burner testing at the preliminary design stage. The model was developed by fitting a limited T-burner data base, in terms of oxidizer size and concentration, to an analytical two parameter response function expression. Multiple peaks are predicted, but the primary effect is of a single peak for most formulations, with notable bulges for the various AP size fractions. The model was extended to velocity coupling with the assumption that dynamic response was controlled primarily by the solid phase described by the two parameter model. The magnitude of velocity coupling was then scaled using an erosive burning law. Routine use of the model for stability predictions on a number of propulsion units indicates that the model tends to overpredict propellant response. It is concluded that the model represents a generally conservative prediction tool, suited especially for the preliminary design stage when T-burner data may not be readily available. The model work included development of a rigorous summation technique for pseudopropellant properties and of a concept for modeling ordered packing of particulates.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes

Treesearch

David G. Milledge; Dino Bellugi; Jim A. McKean; Alexander L. Densmore; William E. Dietrich

2014-01-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but...

A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2007-01-01

A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

Modeling of autocatalytic hydrolysis of adefovir dipivoxil in solid formulations.

PubMed

Dong, Ying; Zhang, Yan; Xiang, Bingren; Deng, Haishan; Wu, Jingfang

2011-04-01

The stability and hydrolysis kinetics of a phosphate prodrug, adefovir dipivoxil, in solid formulations were studied. The stability relationship between five solid formulations was explored. An autocatalytic mechanism for hydrolysis could be proposed according to the kinetic behavior which fits the Prout-Tompkins model well. For the classical kinetic models could hardly describe and predict the hydrolysis kinetics of adefovir dipivoxil in solid formulations accurately when the temperature is high, a feedforward multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network was constructed to model the hydrolysis kinetics. The build-in approaches in Weka, such as lazy classifiers and rule-based learners (IBk, KStar, DecisionTable and M5Rules), were used to verify the performance of MLP. The predictability of the models was evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation and an external test set. It reveals that MLP should be of general applicability proposing an alternative efficient way to model and predict autocatalytic hydrolysis kinetics for phosphate prodrugs.

Improved Model for Predicting the Free Energy Contribution of Dinucleotide Bulges to RNA Duplex Stability.

PubMed

Tomcho, Jeremy C; Tillman, Magdalena R; Znosko, Brent M

2015-09-01

Predicting the secondary structure of RNA is an intermediate in predicting RNA three-dimensional structure. Commonly, determining RNA secondary structure from sequence uses free energy minimization and nearest neighbor parameters. Current algorithms utilize a sequence-independent model to predict free energy contributions of dinucleotide bulges. To determine if a sequence-dependent model would be more accurate, short RNA duplexes containing dinucleotide bulges with different sequences and nearest neighbor combinations were optically melted to derive thermodynamic parameters. These data suggested energy contributions of dinucleotide bulges were sequence-dependent, and a sequence-dependent model was derived. This model assigns free energy penalties based on the identity of nucleotides in the bulge (3.06 kcal/mol for two purines, 2.93 kcal/mol for two pyrimidines, 2.71 kcal/mol for 5'-purine-pyrimidine-3', and 2.41 kcal/mol for 5'-pyrimidine-purine-3'). The predictive model also includes a 0.45 kcal/mol penalty for an A-U pair adjacent to the bulge and a -0.28 kcal/mol bonus for a G-U pair adjacent to the bulge. The new sequence-dependent model results in predicted values within, on average, 0.17 kcal/mol of experimental values, a significant improvement over the sequence-independent model. This model and new experimental values can be incorporated into algorithms that predict RNA stability and secondary structure from sequence.

Prediction of high frequency combustion instability in liquid propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Y. M.; Chen, C. P.; Ziebarth, J. P.; Chen, Y. S.

1992-01-01

The present use of a numerical model developed for the prediction of high-frequency combustion stabilities in liquid propellant rocket engines focuses on (1) the overall behavior of nonlinear combustion instabilities (2) the effects of acoustic oscillations on the fuel-droplet vaporization and combustion process in stable and unstable engine operating conditions, oscillating flowfields, and liquid-fuel trajectories during combustion instability, and (3) the effects of such design parameters as inlet boundary conditions, initial spray conditions, and baffle length. The numerical model has yielded predictions of the tangential-mode combustion instability; baffle length and droplet size variations are noted to have significant effects on engine stability.

Evaluating a process-based model for use in streambank stabilization and stream restoration: insights on the bank stability and toe erosion model (BSTEM)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Streambank retreat is a complex cyclical process involving subaerial processes, fluvial erosion, seepage erosion, and geotechnical failures and is driven by several soil properties that themselves are temporally and spatially variable. Therefore, it can be extremely challenging to predict and model ...

Cue reliability and a landmark stability heuristic determine relative weighting between egocentric and allocentric visual information in memory-guided reach.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick A; Crawford, J Douglas

2010-06-01

It is not known how egocentric visual information (location of a target relative to the self) and allocentric visual information (location of a target relative to external landmarks) are integrated to form reach plans. Based on behavioral data from rodents and humans we hypothesized that the degree of stability in visual landmarks would influence the relative weighting. Furthermore, based on numerous cue-combination studies we hypothesized that the reach system would act like a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), where the reliability of both cues determines their relative weighting. To predict how these factors might interact we developed an MLE model that weighs egocentric and allocentric information based on their respective reliabilities, and also on an additional stability heuristic. We tested the predictions of this model in 10 human subjects by manipulating landmark stability and reliability (via variable amplitude vibration of the landmarks and variable amplitude gaze shifts) in three reach-to-touch tasks: an egocentric control (reaching without landmarks), an allocentric control (reaching relative to landmarks), and a cue-conflict task (involving a subtle landmark "shift" during the memory interval). Variability from all three experiments was used to derive parameters for the MLE model, which was then used to simulate egocentric-allocentric weighting in the cue-conflict experiment. As predicted by the model, landmark vibration--despite its lack of influence on pointing variability (and thus allocentric reliability) in the control experiment--had a strong influence on egocentric-allocentric weighting. A reduced model without the stability heuristic was unable to reproduce this effect. These results suggest heuristics for extrinsic cue stability are at least as important as reliability for determining cue weighting in memory-guided reaching.

Predicting ground level impacts of solid rocket motor testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Willard L.; Eagan, Ellen E.; Kennedy, Carolyn D.; Mccaleb, Rebecca C.

1993-01-01

Beginning in August of 1988 and continuing until the present, NASA at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi has conducted environmental monitoring of selected static test firings of the solid rocket motor used on the Space Shuttle. The purpose of the study was to assess the modeling protocol adapted for use in predicting plume behavior for the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor that is to be tested in Mississippi beginning in the mid-1990's. Both motors use an aluminum/ammonium perchlorate fuel that produces HCl and Al2O3 particulates as the major combustion products of concern. A combination of COMBUS.sr and PRISE.sr subroutines and the INPUFF model are used to predict the centerline stabilization height, the maximum concentration of HCl and Al2O3 at ground level, and distance to maximum concentration. Ground studies were conducted to evaluate the ability of the model to make these predictions. The modeling protocol was found to be conservative in the prediction of plume stabilization height and in the concentrations of the two emission products predicted.

Transitioning to adolescence: how changes in child personality and overreactive parenting predict adolescent adjustment problems.

PubMed

van den Akker, Alithe L; Deković, Maja; Prinzie, Peter

2010-01-01

The present study examined how changes in child Big Five personality characteristics and overreactive parenting during the transition from childhood to adolescence predict adolescent adjustment problems. The sample included 290 children, aged 8-9 years. At three moments, with 2-year intervals, mothers, fathers, and a teacher reported on the child's personality, and mothers and fathers reported on their parenting behavior. At the third measurement moment, mothers, fathers, and children reported on the child's adjustment problems. Rank-order stability of the personality dimensions and overreactive parenting were high. Univariate latent growth models revealed mean-level decreases for extraversion, conscientiousness, and imagination. Mean levels of benevolence, emotional stability, and overreactive parenting were stable. Multivariate latent growth models revealed that decreases in extraversion and emotional stability predicted internalizing problems, whereas decreases in benevolence, conscientiousness, and emotional stability predicted externalizing problems. Increases in overreactive parenting predicted externalizing, but not internalizing problems. The associations were similar for boys and girls. The results indicate that changes in child personality and overreactive parenting during the transition to adolescence are associated with adolescent adjustment problems. Overall, child personality was more important than overreactive parenting, and children were more likely to "act out" than to "withdraw" in reaction to overreactive parenting.

Self-consistency test reveals systematic bias in programs for prediction change of stability upon mutation.

PubMed

Usmanova, Dinara R; Bogatyreva, Natalya S; Ariño Bernad, Joan; Eremina, Aleksandra A; Gorshkova, Anastasiya A; Kanevskiy, German M; Lonishin, Lyubov R; Meister, Alexander V; Yakupova, Alisa G; Kondrashov, Fyodor A; Ivankov, Dmitry N

2018-05-02

Computational prediction of the effect of mutations on protein stability is used by researchers in many fields. The utility of the prediction methods is affected by their accuracy and bias. Bias, a systematic shift of the predicted change of stability, has been noted as an issue for several methods, but has not been investigated systematically. Presence of the bias may lead to misleading results especially when exploring the effects of combination of different mutations. Here we use a protocol to measure the bias as a function of the number of introduced mutations. It is based on a self-consistency test of the reciprocity the effect of a mutation. An advantage of the used approach is that it relies solely on crystal structures without experimentally measured stability values. We applied the protocol to four popular algorithms predicting change of protein stability upon mutation, FoldX, Eris, Rosetta, and I-Mutant, and found an inherent bias. For one program, FoldX, we manage to substantially reduce the bias using additional relaxation by Modeller. Authors using algorithms for predicting effects of mutations should be aware of the bias described here. ivankov13@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Building predictive models for MERS-CoV infections using data mining techniques.

PubMed

Al-Turaiki, Isra; Alshahrani, Mona; Almutairi, Tahani

Recently, the outbreak of MERS-CoV infections caused worldwide attention to Saudi Arabia. The novel virus belongs to the coronaviruses family, which is responsible for causing mild to moderate colds. The control and command center of Saudi Ministry of Health issues a daily report on MERS-CoV infection cases. The infection with MERS-CoV can lead to fatal complications, however little information is known about this novel virus. In this paper, we apply two data mining techniques in order to better understand the stability and the possibility of recovery from MERS-CoV infections. The Naive Bayes classifier and J48 decision tree algorithm were used to build our models. The dataset used consists of 1082 records of cases reported between 2013 and 2015. In order to build our prediction models, we split the dataset into two groups. The first group combined recovery and death records. A new attribute was created to indicate the record type, such that the dataset can be used to predict the recovery from MERS-CoV. The second group contained the new case records to be used to predict the stability of the infection based on the current status attribute. The resulting recovery models indicate that healthcare workers are more likely to survive. This could be due to the vaccinations that healthcare workers are required to get on regular basis. As for the stability models using J48, two attributes were found to be important for predicting stability: symptomatic and age. Old patients are at high risk of developing MERS-CoV complications. Finally, the performance of all the models was evaluated using three measures: accuracy, precision, and recall. In general, the accuracy of the models is between 53.6% and 71.58%. We believe that the performance of the prediction models can be enhanced with the use of more patient data. As future work, we plan to directly contact hospitals in Riyadh in order to collect more information related to patients with MERS-CoV infections. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A field test of the centrifugal community organization model using psammophilic gerbils in Israel's southern coastal plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wasserberg, Gideon; Kotler, B.P.; Morris, D.W.; Abramsky, Z.

2007-01-01

Background: An optimal habitat selection model called centrifugal community organization (CCO) predicts that species, although they have the same primary habitat, may co-exist owing to their ability to use different secondary habitats. Goal: Test the predictions of CCO with field experiments. Species: The Egyptian sand gerbil (40 g), Gerbillus pyramidum, and Allenby's gerbil (25 g), G. andersoni allenbyi. Site: Ashdod sand dunes in the southern coastal plain of Israel. Three sandy habitats are present: shifting, semi-stabilized, and stabilized sand. Gerbils occupied all three habitats. Methods: We surveyed rodent abundance, activity levels, and foraging behaviour while experimentally removing G. pyramidum. Results: Three predictions of the CCO model were supported. Both species did best in the semi-stabilized habitat. However, they differed in their secondary habitats. Gerbillus pyramidum preferred the shifting sand habitat, whereas G. a. allenbyi preferred the stabilized habitat. Habitat selection by both species depended on density. However, in contrast to CCO, G. pyramidum dominated the core habitat and excluded G. a. allenbyi. We term this variant of CCO, 'asymmetric CCO'. Conclusions: The fundamental feature of CCO appears valid: co-existence may result not because of what each competing species does best, but because of what they do as a back-up. But in contrast to the prediction of the original CCO model, all dynamic traces of interaction can vanish if the system includes interference competition. ?? 2007 Gideon Wasserberg.

Model-based chatter stability prediction and detection for the turning of a flexible workpiece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Kaibo; Lian, Zisheng; Gu, Fengshou; Liu, Hunju

2018-02-01

Machining long slender workpieces still presents a technical challenge on the shop floor due to their low stiffness and damping. Regenerative chatter is a major hindrance in machining processes, reducing the geometric accuracies and dynamic stability of the cutting system. This study has been motivated by the fact that chatter occurrence is generally in relation to the cutting position in straight turning of slender workpieces, which has seldom been investigated comprehensively in literature. In the present paper, a predictive chatter model of turning a tailstock supported slender workpiece considering the cutting position change during machining is explored. Based on linear stability analysis and stiffness distribution at different cutting positions along the workpiece, the effect of the cutting tool movement along the length of the workpiece on chatter stability is studied. As a result, an entire stability chart for a single cutting pass is constructed. Through this stability chart the critical cutting condition and the chatter onset location along the workpiece in a turning operation can be estimated. The difference between the predicted tool locations and the experimental results was within 9% at high speed cutting. Also, on the basis of the predictive model the dynamic behavior during chatter that when chatter arises at some cutting location it will continue for a period of time until another specified location is arrived at, can be inferred. The experimental observation is in good agreement with the theoretical inference. In chatter detection respect, besides the delay strategy and overlap processing technique, a relative threshold algorithm is proposed to detect chatter by comparing the spectrum and variance of the acquired acceleration signals with the reference saved during stable cutting. The chatter monitoring method has shown reliability for various machining conditions.

Food web complexity and stability across habitat connectivity gradients.

PubMed

LeCraw, Robin M; Kratina, Pavel; Srivastava, Diane S

2014-12-01

The effects of habitat connectivity on food webs have been studied both empirically and theoretically, yet the question of whether empirical results support theoretical predictions for any food web metric other than species richness has received little attention. Our synthesis brings together theory and empirical evidence for how habitat connectivity affects both food web stability and complexity. Food web stability is often predicted to be greatest at intermediate levels of connectivity, representing a compromise between the stabilizing effects of dispersal via rescue effects and prey switching, and the destabilizing effects of dispersal via regional synchronization of population dynamics. Empirical studies of food web stability generally support both this pattern and underlying mechanisms. Food chain length has been predicted to have both increasing and unimodal relationships with connectivity as a result of predators being constrained by the patch occupancy of their prey. Although both patterns have been documented empirically, the underlying mechanisms may differ from those predicted by models. In terms of other measures of food web complexity, habitat connectivity has been empirically found to generally increase link density but either reduce or have no effect on connectance, whereas a unimodal relationship is expected. In general, there is growing concordance between empirical patterns and theoretical predictions for some effects of habitat connectivity on food webs, but many predictions remain to be tested over a full connectivity gradient, and empirical metrics of complexity are rarely modeled. Closing these gaps will allow a deeper understanding of how natural and anthropogenic changes in connectivity can affect real food webs.

Using metal-ligand binding characteristics to predict metal toxicity: quantitative ion character-activity relationships (QICARs).

PubMed Central

Newman, M C; McCloskey, J T; Tatara, C P

1998-01-01

Ecological risk assessment can be enhanced with predictive models for metal toxicity. Modelings of published data were done under the simplifying assumption that intermetal trends in toxicity reflect relative metal-ligand complex stabilities. This idea has been invoked successfully since 1904 but has yet to be applied widely in quantitative ecotoxicology. Intermetal trends in toxicity were successfully modeled with ion characteristics reflecting metal binding to ligands for a wide range of effects. Most models were useful for predictive purposes based on an F-ratio criterion and cross-validation, but anomalous predictions did occur if speciation was ignored. In general, models for metals with the same valence (i.e., divalent metals) were better than those combining mono-, di-, and trivalent metals. The softness parameter (sigma p) and the absolute value of the log of the first hydrolysis constant ([symbol: see text] log KOH [symbol: see text]) were especially useful in model construction. Also, delta E0 contributed substantially to several of the two-variable models. In contrast, quantitative attempts to predict metal interactions in binary mixtures based on metal-ligand complex stabilities were not successful. PMID:9860900

The lucky image-motion prediction for simple scene observation based soft-sensor technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan; Su, Yun; Hu, Bin

2015-08-01

High resolution is important to earth remote sensors, while the vibration of the platforms of the remote sensors is a major factor restricting high resolution imaging. The image-motion prediction and real-time compensation are key technologies to solve this problem. For the reason that the traditional autocorrelation image algorithm cannot meet the demand for the simple scene image stabilization, this paper proposes to utilize soft-sensor technology in image-motion prediction, and focus on the research of algorithm optimization in imaging image-motion prediction. Simulations results indicate that the improving lucky image-motion stabilization algorithm combining the Back Propagation Network (BP NN) and support vector machine (SVM) is the most suitable for the simple scene image stabilization. The relative error of the image-motion prediction based the soft-sensor technology is below 5%, the training computing speed of the mathematical predication model is as fast as the real-time image stabilization in aerial photography.

A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.

1974-01-01

An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.

Constrained off-line synthesis approach of model predictive control for networked control systems with network-induced delays.

PubMed

Tang, Xiaoming; Qu, Hongchun; Wang, Ping; Zhao, Meng

2015-03-01

This paper investigates the off-line synthesis approach of model predictive control (MPC) for a class of networked control systems (NCSs) with network-induced delays. A new augmented model which can be readily applied to time-varying control law, is proposed to describe the NCS where bounded deterministic network-induced delays may occur in both sensor to controller (S-A) and controller to actuator (C-A) links. Based on this augmented model, a sufficient condition of the closed-loop stability is derived by applying the Lyapunov method. The off-line synthesis approach of model predictive control is addressed using the stability results of the system, which explicitly considers the satisfaction of input and state constraints. Numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting drug hydrolysis based on moisture uptake in various packaging designs.

PubMed

Naversnik, Klemen; Bohanec, Simona

2008-12-18

An attempt was made to predict the stability of a moisture sensitive drug product based on the knowledge of the dependence of the degradation rate on tablet moisture. The moisture increase inside a HDPE bottle with the drug formulation was simulated with the sorption-desorption moisture transfer model, which, in turn, allowed an accurate prediction of the drug degradation kinetics. The stability prediction, obtained by computer simulation, was made in a considerably shorter time frame and required little resources compared to a conventional stability study. The prediction was finally upgraded to a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation, which allowed quantitative incorporation of uncertainty, stemming from various sources. The resulting distribution of the outcome of interest (amount of degradation product at expiry) is a comprehensive way of communicating the result along with its uncertainty, superior to single-value results or confidence intervals.

An improved kinetics approach to describe the physical stability of amorphous solid dispersions.

PubMed

Yang, Jiao; Grey, Kristin; Doney, John

2010-01-15

The recrystallization of amorphous solid dispersions may lead to a loss in the dissolution rate, and consequently reduce bioavailability. The purpose of this work is to understand factors governing the recrystallization of amorphous drug-polymer solid dispersions, and develop a kinetics model capable of accurately predicting their physical stability. Recrystallization kinetics was measured using differential scanning calorimetry for initially amorphous efavirenz-polyvinylpyrrolidone solid dispersions stored at controlled temperature and relative humidity. The experimental measurements were fitted by a new kinetic model to estimate the recrystallization rate constant and microscopic geometry of crystal growth. The new kinetics model was used to illustrate the governing factors of amorphous solid dispersions stability. Temperature was found to affect efavirenz recrystallization in an Arrhenius manner, while recrystallization rate constant was shown to increase linearly with relative humidity. Polymer content tremendously inhibited the recrystallization process by increasing the crystallization activation energy and decreasing the equilibrium crystallinity. The new kinetic model was validated by the good agreement between model fits and experiment measurements. A small increase in polyvinylpyrrolidone resulted in substantial stability enhancements of efavirenz amorphous solid dispersion. The new established kinetics model provided more accurate predictions than the Avrami equation.

Prediction of turning stability using receptance coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasiewicz, Marcin; Powałka, Bartosz

2018-01-01

This paper presents an issue of machining stability prediction of dynamic "lathe - workpiece" system evaluated using receptance coupling method. Dynamic properties of the lathe components (the spindle and the tailstock) are assumed to be constant and can be determined experimentally based on the results of the impact test. Hence, the variable of the system "machine tool - holder - workpiece" is the machined part, which can be easily modelled analytically. The method of receptance coupling enables a synthesis of experimental (spindle, tailstock) and analytical (machined part) models, so impact testing of the entire system becomes unnecessary. The paper presents methodology of analytical and experimental models synthesis, evaluation of the stability lobes and experimental validation procedure involving both the determination of the dynamic properties of the system and cutting tests. In the summary the experimental verification results would be presented and discussed.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used, or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively add/remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating dataset consists of the good/poor condition of n=1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p=212) of landscape features from the StreamCat dataset. Two types of RF models are compared: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors, and a reduced variable set model selected using a backwards elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors, and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substanti

Equilibrium high entropy alloy phase stability from experiments and thermodynamic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saal, James E.; Berglund, Ida S.; Sebastian, Jason T.

Long-term stability of high entropy alloys (HEAs) is a critical consideration for the design and practical application of HEAs. It has long been assumed that many HEAs are a kinetically-stabilized metastable structure, and recent experiments have confirmed this hypothesis by observing HEA ecomposition after long-termequilibration. In the presentwork,we demonstrate the use of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach to predict HEA stability and processing parameters, comparing experimental long-term annealing observations to CALPHAD phase diagrams from a commercially-available HEA database. As a result, we find good agreement between single- and multi-phase predictions and experiments.

Equilibrium high entropy alloy phase stability from experiments and thermodynamic modeling

DOE PAGES

Saal, James E.; Berglund, Ida S.; Sebastian, Jason T.; ...

2017-10-29

Long-term stability of high entropy alloys (HEAs) is a critical consideration for the design and practical application of HEAs. It has long been assumed that many HEAs are a kinetically-stabilized metastable structure, and recent experiments have confirmed this hypothesis by observing HEA ecomposition after long-termequilibration. In the presentwork,we demonstrate the use of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach to predict HEA stability and processing parameters, comparing experimental long-term annealing observations to CALPHAD phase diagrams from a commercially-available HEA database. As a result, we find good agreement between single- and multi-phase predictions and experiments.

Theoretical and experimental research in aeroelastic stability of an advanced bearingless rotor for future helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, James M.

1991-01-01

The aeroelastic stability of a shaft-fixed bearingless rotor is analyzed in wind-tunnel tests for a wide range of operating conditions in order to determine whether such a system could be made aeroelastically stable without incorporating auxiliary dampers. The model rotor and blade properties are determined and used as an input to a bearingless-rotor analysis. Theoretical predictions are compared with experimental results in hover and forward flights. The analysis predicts the lag mode damping satisfactorily for collective pitch between 5 deg and 10 deg; however, the quasi-steady linear aerodynamic modeling overpredicts the damping values for higher collective pitch settings. It is noted that soft blade pitch links improve aeroelastic stability in hover and at low advance ratio.

Protein linear indices of the 'macromolecular pseudograph alpha-carbon atom adjacency matrix' in bioinformatics. Part 1: prediction of protein stability effects of a complete set of alanine substitutions in Arc repressor.

PubMed

Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Medina-Marrero, Ricardo; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Romero-Zaldivar, Vicente; Torrens, Francisco; Castro, Eduardo A

2005-04-15

A novel approach to bio-macromolecular design from a linear algebra point of view is introduced. A protein's total (whole protein) and local (one or more amino acid) linear indices are a new set of bio-macromolecular descriptors of relevance to protein QSAR/QSPR studies. These amino-acid level biochemical descriptors are based on the calculation of linear maps on Rn[f k(xmi):Rn-->Rn] in canonical basis. These bio-macromolecular indices are calculated from the kth power of the macromolecular pseudograph alpha-carbon atom adjacency matrix. Total linear indices are linear functional on Rn. That is, the kth total linear indices are linear maps from Rn to the scalar R[f k(xm):Rn-->R]. Thus, the kth total linear indices are calculated by summing the amino-acid linear indices of all amino acids in the protein molecule. A study of the protein stability effects for a complete set of alanine substitutions in the Arc repressor illustrates this approach. A quantitative model that discriminates near wild-type stability alanine mutants from the reduced-stability ones in a training series was obtained. This model permitted the correct classification of 97.56% (40/41) and 91.67% (11/12) of proteins in the training and test set, respectively. It shows a high Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC=0.952) for the training set and an MCC=0.837 for the external prediction set. Additionally, canonical regression analysis corroborated the statistical quality of the classification model (Rcanc=0.824). This analysis was also used to compute biological stability canonical scores for each Arc alanine mutant. On the other hand, the linear piecewise regression model compared favorably with respect to the linear regression one on predicting the melting temperature (tm) of the Arc alanine mutants. The linear model explains almost 81% of the variance of the experimental tm (R=0.90 and s=4.29) and the LOO press statistics evidenced its predictive ability (q2=0.72 and scv=4.79). Moreover, the TOMOCOMD-CAMPS method produced a linear piecewise regression (R=0.97) between protein backbone descriptors and tm values for alanine mutants of the Arc repressor. A break-point value of 51.87 degrees C characterized two mutant clusters and coincided perfectly with the experimental scale. For this reason, we can use the linear discriminant analysis and piecewise models in combination to classify and predict the stability of the mutant Arc homodimers. These models also permitted the interpretation of the driving forces of such folding process, indicating that topologic/topographic protein backbone interactions control the stability profile of wild-type Arc and its alanine mutants.

Numerical Stability and Control Analysis Towards Falling-Leaf Prediction Capabilities of Splitflow for Two Generic High-Performance Aircraft Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlton, Eric F.

1998-01-01

Aerodynamic analysis are performed using the Lockheed-Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems (LMTAS) Splitflow computational fluid dynamics code to investigate the computational prediction capabilities for vortex-dominated flow fields of two different tailless aircraft models at large angles of attack and sideslip. These computations are performed with the goal of providing useful stability and control data to designers of high performance aircraft. Appropriate metrics for accuracy, time, and ease of use are determined in consultations with both the LMTAS Advanced Design and Stability and Control groups. Results are obtained and compared to wind-tunnel data for all six components of forces and moments. Moment data is combined to form a "falling leaf" stability analysis. Finally, a handful of viscous simulations were also performed to further investigate nonlinearities and possible viscous effects in the differences between the accumulated inviscid computational and experimental data.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology.

PubMed

Fox, Eric W; Hill, Ryan A; Leibowitz, Scott G; Olsen, Anthony R; Thornbrugh, Darren J; Weber, Marc H

2017-07-01

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in using RF to develop predictive models with large environmental data sets.

A fluctuating plume dispersion model for the prediction of odour-impact frequencies from continuous stationary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussio, P.; Gnyp, A. W.; Henshaw, P. F.

A fluctuating plume dispersion model has been developed to facilitate the prediction of odour-impact frequencies in the communities surrounding elevated point sources. The model was used to predict the frequencies of occurrence of odours of various magnitudes for 1 h periods. In addition, the model predicted the maximum odour level. The model was tested with an extensive set of data collected in the residential areas surrounding the paint shop of an automotive assembly plant. Most of the perceived odours in the vicinity of the 64, 46 m high stacks ranged between 2 and 7 odour units and generally persisted for less than 30 s. Ninety-eight different field determinations of odour impact frequencies within 1 km of the plant were conducted during the course of the study. To simplify evaluation, the frequencies of occurrence of different odour levels were summed to give the total frequency of occurrence of all readily detectable (>2 OU) odours. The model provided excellent simulation of the total frequencies of occurrence where the odour was frequent (i.e . readily detectable more than 30% of the time). At lower frequencies of occurrence the model prediction was poor. The stability class did not seem to affect the model's ability to predict field frequency values. However, the model provided excellent predictions of the maximum odour levels without being sensitive to either stability class or distance from the source. Ninety-five percent of the predicted maximum values were within a factor of two of the measured field maximum values.

Rotation and plasma stability in the Fitzpatrick-Aydemir model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pustovitov, V. D.

2007-08-15

The rotational stabilization of the resistive wall modes (RWMs) is analyzed within the single-mode cylindrical Fitzpatrick-Aydemir model [R. Fitzpatrick, Phys. Plasmas 9, 3459 (2002)]. Here, the consequences of the Fitzpatrick-Aydemir dispersion relation are derived in terms of the observable growth rate and toroidal rotation frequency of the mode, which allows easy interpretation of the results and comparison with experimental observations. It is shown that this model, developed for the plasma with weak dissipation, predicts the rotational destabilization of RWM in the typical range of the RWM rotation. The model predictions are compared with those obtained in a similar model, butmore » with the Boozer boundary conditions at the plasma surface [A. H. Boozer, Phys. Plasmas 11, 110 (2004)]. Simple experimental tests of the model are proposed.« less

Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)'s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: A case study in Macon County, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Z.; Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D.; Adler, R.F.; Gourley, J.J.; Wooten, R.

2011-01-01

The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the transient dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis) is a USGS landslide prediction model, coded in Fortran, that accounts for the influences of hydrology, topography, and soil physics on slope stability. In this study, we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal predictability of a Matlab version of TRIGRS (MaTRIGRS) in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina where Hurricanes Ivan triggered widespread landslides in the 2004 hurricane season. High resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data (6-m LiDAR), USGS STATSGO soil database, and NOAA/NWS combined radar and gauge precipitation are used as inputs to the model. A local landslide inventory database from North Carolina Geological Survey is used to evaluate the MaTRIGRS' predictive skill for the landslide locations and timing, identifying predictions within a 120-m radius of observed landslides over the 30-h period of Hurricane Ivan's passage in September 2004. Results show that within a radius of 24 m from the landslide location about 67% of the landslide, observations could be successfully predicted but with a high false alarm ratio (90%). If the radius of observation is extended to 120 m, 98% of the landslides are detected with an 18% false alarm ratio. This study shows that MaTRIGRS demonstrates acceptable spatiotemporal predictive skill for landslide occurrences within a 120-m radius in space and a hurricane-event-duration (h) in time, offering the potential to serve as a landslide warning system in areas where accurate rainfall forecasts and detailed field data are available. The validation can be further improved with additional landslide information including the exact time of failure for each landslide and the landslide's extent and run out length. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Moisture-induced phase separation and recrystallization in amorphous solid dispersions.

PubMed

Luebbert, Christian; Sadowski, Gabriele

2017-10-30

Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) are often dissolved in polymeric matrices to control the gastrointestinal dissolution and to stabilize the amorphous state of the API. During the pharmaceutical development of new formulations, stability studies via storage at certain temperature and relative humidity (RH) have to be carried out to verify the long-term thermodynamic stability of these formulations against unwanted recrystallization and moisture-induced amorphous-amorphous phase separation (MIAPS). This study focuses on predicting the MIAPS of API/polymer formulations at elevated RH. In a first step, the phase behavior of water-free formulations of ibuprofen (IBU) and felodipine (FEL) combined with the polymers poly(vinyl pyrrolidone) (PVP), poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) and poly (vinyl pyrrolidone-co-vinyl acetate) (PVPVA64) was determined experimentally by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The phase behavior of these water-free formulations was modeled using the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associating Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT). Based on this, the API solubility and MIAPS in the above-mentioned formulations at humid conditions was predicted in perfect agreement with the results of two-year lasting stability studies at 25°C/0% RH and 40°C/75% RH. MIAPS was predicted and also experimentally found for the FEL/PVP, FEL/PVPVA64 and IBU/PVP formulations, whereas MIAPS was neither predicted nor measured for the IBU/PVPVA64 system and PVAC-containing formulations. It was thus shown that the results of time-consuming long-term stability tests can be correctly predicted via thermodynamic modeling with PC-SAFT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physical stability of API/polymer-blend amorphous solid dispersions.

PubMed

Lehmkemper, Kristin; Kyeremateng, Samuel O; Bartels, Mareike; Degenhardt, Matthias; Sadowski, Gabriele

2018-03-01

The preparation of amorphous solid dispersions (ASDs) is a well-established strategy for formulating active pharmaceutical ingredients by embedding them in excipients, usually amorphous polymers. Different polymers can be combined for designing ASDs with desired properties like an optimized dissolution behavior. One important criterion for the development of ASD compositions is the physical stability. In this work, the physical stability of API/polymer-blend ASDs was investigated by thermodynamic modeling and stability studies. Amorphous naproxen (NAP) and acetaminophen (APAP) were embedded in blends of hydroxypropyl methylcellulose acetate succinate (HPMCAS) and either poly(vinylpyrrolidone) (PVP) or poly(vinylpyrrolidone-co-vinyl acetate) (PVPVA64). Parameters for modeling the API solubility in the blends and the glass-transition temperature curves of the water-free systems with Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associating Fluid Theory and Kwei equation, respectively, were correlated to experimental data. The phase behavior for standardized storage conditions (0%, 60% and 75% relative humidity (RH)) was predicted and compared to six months-long stability studies. According to modeling and experimental results, the physical stability was reduced with increasing HPMCAS content and increasing RH. This trend was observed for all investigated systems, with both APIs (NAP and APAP) and both polymer blends (PVP/HPMCAS and PVPVA64/HPMCAS). PC-SAFT and the Kwei equation turned out to be suitable tools for modeling and predicting the physical stability of the investigated API/polymer-blends ASDs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computation of Alfvèn eigenmode stability and saturation through a reduced fast ion transport model in the TRANSP tokamak transport code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Gorelenkov, N. N.

Alfvénic instabilities (AEs) are well known as a potential cause of enhanced fast ion transport in fusion devices. Given a specific plasma scenario, quantitative predictions of (i) expected unstable AE spectrum and (ii) resulting fast ion transport are required to prevent or mitigate the AE-induced degradation in fusion performance. Reduced models are becoming an attractive tool to analyze existing scenarios as well as for scenario prediction in time-dependent simulations. Here, in this work, a neutral beam heated NSTX discharge is used as reference to illustrate the potential of a reduced fast ion transport model, known as kick model, that hasmore » been recently implemented for interpretive and predictive analysis within the framework of the time-dependent tokamak transport code TRANSP. Predictive capabilities for AE stability and saturation amplitude are first assessed, based on given thermal plasma profiles only. Predictions are then compared to experimental results, and the interpretive capabilities of the model further discussed. Overall, the reduced model captures the main properties of the instabilities and associated effects on the fast ion population. Finally, additional information from the actual experiment enables further tuning of the model's parameters to achieve a close match with measurements.« less

Computation of Alfvèn eigenmode stability and saturation through a reduced fast ion transport model in the TRANSP tokamak transport code

DOE PAGES

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Gorelenkov, N. N.; ...

2017-07-20

Alfvénic instabilities (AEs) are well known as a potential cause of enhanced fast ion transport in fusion devices. Given a specific plasma scenario, quantitative predictions of (i) expected unstable AE spectrum and (ii) resulting fast ion transport are required to prevent or mitigate the AE-induced degradation in fusion performance. Reduced models are becoming an attractive tool to analyze existing scenarios as well as for scenario prediction in time-dependent simulations. Here, in this work, a neutral beam heated NSTX discharge is used as reference to illustrate the potential of a reduced fast ion transport model, known as kick model, that hasmore » been recently implemented for interpretive and predictive analysis within the framework of the time-dependent tokamak transport code TRANSP. Predictive capabilities for AE stability and saturation amplitude are first assessed, based on given thermal plasma profiles only. Predictions are then compared to experimental results, and the interpretive capabilities of the model further discussed. Overall, the reduced model captures the main properties of the instabilities and associated effects on the fast ion population. Finally, additional information from the actual experiment enables further tuning of the model's parameters to achieve a close match with measurements.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jehoon; Wu, Jianzhong, E-mail: jwu@engr.ucr.edu

Self-assembly of capsid proteins and genome encapsidation are two critical steps in the life cycle of most plant and animal viruses. A theoretical description of such processes from a physiochemical perspective may help better understand viral replication and morphogenesis thus provide fresh insights into the experimental studies of antiviral strategies. In this work, we propose a molecular thermodynamic model for predicting the stability of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) capsids either with or without loading nucleic materials. With the key components represented by coarse-grained thermodynamic models, the theoretical predictions are in excellent agreement with experimental data for the formation free energiesmore » of empty T4 capsids over a broad range of temperature and ion concentrations. The theoretical model predicts T3/T4 dimorphism also in good agreement with the capsid formation at in vivo and in vitro conditions. In addition, we have studied the stability of the viral particles in response to physiological cellular conditions with the explicit consideration of the hydrophobic association of capsid subunits, electrostatic interactions, molecular excluded volume effects, entropy of mixing, and conformational changes of the biomolecular species. The course-grained model captures the essential features of the HBV nucleocapsid stability revealed by recent experiments.« less

Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

2012-01-01

In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

Cognitive models of risky choice: parameter stability and predictive accuracy of prospect theory.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

2012-04-01

In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are individual differences as measured by model parameters stable enough to improve the ability to predict behavior as compared to modeling without adjustable parameters? We examined this issue in cumulative prospect theory (CPT), arguably the most widely used framework to model decisions under risk. Specifically, we examined (a) the temporal stability of CPT's parameters; and (b) how well different implementations of CPT, varying in the number of adjustable parameters, predict individual choice relative to models with no adjustable parameters (such as CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and various heuristics). We presented participants with risky choice problems and fitted CPT to each individual's choices in two separate sessions (which were 1 week apart). All parameters were correlated across time, in particular when using a simple implementation of CPT. CPT allowing for individual variability in parameter values predicted individual choice better than CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and the heuristics. CPT's parameters thus seem to pick up stable individual differences that need to be considered when predicting risky choice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vacuum Stability in Split SUSY and Little Higgs Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datta, Alakabha; Zhang, Xinmin

We study the stability of the effective Higgs potential in the split supersymmetry and Little Higgs models. In particular, we study the effects of higher dimensional operators in the effective potential on the Higgs mass predictions. We find that the size and sign of the higher dimensional operators can significantly change the Higgs mass required to maintain vacuum stability in Split SUSY models. In the Little Higgs models the effects of higher dimensional operators can be large because of a relatively lower cutoff scale. Working with a specific model we find that a contribution from the higher dimensional operator with coefficient of O(1) can destabilize the vacuum.

Computational analysis of histidine mutations on the structural stability of human tyrosinases leading to albinism insurgence.

PubMed

Hassan, Mubashir; Abbas, Qamar; Raza, Hussain; Moustafa, Ahmed A; Seo, Sung-Yum

2017-07-25

Misfolding and structural alteration in proteins lead to serious malfunctions and cause various diseases in humans. Mutations at the active binding site in tyrosinase impair structural stability and cause lethal albinism by abolishing copper binding. To evaluate the histidine mutational effect, all mutated structures were built using homology modelling. The protein sequence was retrieved from the UniProt database, and 3D models of original and mutated human tyrosinase sequences were predicted by changing the residual positions within the target sequence separately. Structural and mutational analyses were performed to interpret the significance of mutated residues (N 180 , R 202 , Q 202 , R 211 , Y 363 , R 367 , Y 367 and D 390 ) at the active binding site of tyrosinases. CSpritz analysis depicted that 23.25% residues actively participate in the instability of tyrosinase. The accuracy of predicted models was confirmed through online servers ProSA-web, ERRAT score and VERIFY 3D values. The theoretical pI and GRAVY generated results also showed the accuracy of the predicted models. The CCA negative correlation results depicted that the replacement of mutated residues at His within the active binding site disturbs the structural stability of tyrosinases. The predicted CCA scores of Tyr 367 (-0.079) and Q/R 202 (0.032) revealed that both mutations have more potential to disturb the structural stability. MD simulation analyses of all predicted models justified that Gln 202 , Arg 202 , Tyr 367 and D 390 replacement made the protein structures more susceptible to destabilization. Mutational results showed that the replacement of His with Q/R 202 and Y/R 363 has a lethal effect and may cause melanin associated diseases such as OCA1. Taken together, our computational analysis depicts that the mutated residues such as Q/R 202 and Y/R 363 actively participate in instability and misfolding of tyrosinases, which may govern OCA1 through disturbing the melanin biosynthetic pathway.

Rapid and accurate prediction of degradant formation rates in pharmaceutical formulations using high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Darrington, Richard T; Jiao, Jim

2004-04-01

Rapid and accurate stability prediction is essential to pharmaceutical formulation development. Commonly used stability prediction methods include monitoring parent drug loss at intended storage conditions or initial rate determination of degradants under accelerated conditions. Monitoring parent drug loss at the intended storage condition does not provide a rapid and accurate stability assessment because often <0.5% drug loss is all that can be observed in a realistic time frame, while the accelerated initial rate method in conjunction with extrapolation of rate constants using the Arrhenius or Eyring equations often introduces large errors in shelf-life prediction. In this study, the shelf life prediction of a model pharmaceutical preparation utilizing sensitive high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS) to directly quantitate degradant formation rates at the intended storage condition is proposed. This method was compared to traditional shelf life prediction approaches in terms of time required to predict shelf life and associated error in shelf life estimation. Results demonstrated that the proposed LC/MS method using initial rates analysis provided significantly improved confidence intervals for the predicted shelf life and required less overall time and effort to obtain the stability estimation compared to the other methods evaluated. Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

What Matters from Admissions? Identifying Success and Risk Among Canadian Dental Students.

PubMed

Plouffe, Rachel A; Hammond, Robert; Goldberg, Harvey A; Chahine, Saad

2018-05-01

The aims of this study were to determine whether different student profiles would emerge in terms of high and low GPA performance in each year of dental school and to investigate the utility of preadmissions variables in predicting performance and performance stability throughout each year of dental school. Data from 11 graduating cohorts (2004-14) at the Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, Canada, were collected and analyzed using bivariate correlations, latent profile analysis, and hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs). The data analyzed were for 616 students in total (332 males and 284 females). Four models were developed to predict adequate and poor performance throughout each of four dental school years. An additional model was developed to predict student performance stability across time. Two separate student profiles reflecting high and low GPA performance across each year of dental school were identified, and scores on cognitive preadmissions variables differentially predicted the probability of grouping into high and low performance profiles. Students with higher pre-dental GPAs and DAT chemistry were most likely to remain stable in a high-performance group across each year of dental school. Overall, the findings suggest that selection committees should consider pre-dental GPA and DAT chemistry scores as important tools for predicting dental school performance and stability across time. This research is important in determining how to better predict success and failure in various areas of preclinical dentistry courses and to provide low-performing students with adequate academic assistance.

Stability analysis and application of a mathematical cholera model.

PubMed

Liao, Shu; Wang, Jin

2011-07-01

In this paper, we conduct a dynamical analysis of the deterministic cholera model proposed in [9]. We study the stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria so as to explore the complex epidemic and endemic dynamics of the disease. We demonstrate a real-world application of this model by investigating the recent cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, we present numerical simulation results to verify the analytical predictions.

A lightweight thermal heat switch for redundant cryocooling on satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietrich, M.; Euler, A.; Thummes, G.

2017-04-01

A previously designed cryogenic thermal heat switch for space applications has been optimized for low mass, high structural stability, and reliability. The heat switch makes use of the large linear thermal expansion coefficient (CTE) of the thermoplastic UHMW-PE for actuation. A structure model, which includes the temperature dependent properties of the actuator, is derived to be able to predict the contact pressure between the switch parts. This pressure was used in a thermal model in order to predict the switch performance under different heat loads and operating temperatures. The two models were used to optimize the mass and stability of the switch. Its reliability was proven by cyclic actuation of the switch and by shaker tests.

Computation of Alfvèn eigenmode stability and saturation through a reduced fast ion transport model in the TRANSP tokamak transport code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Gorelenkov, N. N.; White, R. B.

2017-09-01

Alfvénic instabilities (AEs) are well known as a potential cause of enhanced fast ion transport in fusion devices. Given a specific plasma scenario, quantitative predictions of (i) expected unstable AE spectrum and (ii) resulting fast ion transport are required to prevent or mitigate the AE-induced degradation in fusion performance. Reduced models are becoming an attractive tool to analyze existing scenarios as well as for scenario prediction in time-dependent simulations. In this work, a neutral beam heated NSTX discharge is used as reference to illustrate the potential of a reduced fast ion transport model, known as kick model, that has been recently implemented for interpretive and predictive analysis within the framework of the time-dependent tokamak transport code TRANSP. Predictive capabilities for AE stability and saturation amplitude are first assessed, based on given thermal plasma profiles only. Predictions are then compared to experimental results, and the interpretive capabilities of the model further discussed. Overall, the reduced model captures the main properties of the instabilities and associated effects on the fast ion population. Additional information from the actual experiment enables further tuning of the model’s parameters to achieve a close match with measurements.

An analysis of yield stability in a conservation agriculture system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate models predict increasing growing-season weather variability, with negative consequences for crop production. Maintaining agricultural productivity despite variability in weather (i.e., crop yield stability) will be critical to meeting growing global demand. Conservation agriculture is an ...

Experimental Investigations of Generalized Predictive Control for Tiltrotor Stability Augmentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nixon, Mark W.; Langston, Chester W.; Singleton, Jeffrey D.; Piatak, David J.; Kvaternik, Raymond G.; Bennett, Richard L.; Brown, Ross K.

2001-01-01

A team of researchers from the Army Research Laboratory, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), and Bell Helicopter-Textron, Inc. have completed hover-cell and wind-tunnel testing of a 1/5-size aeroelastically-scaled tiltrotor model using a new active control system for stability augmentation. The active system is based on a generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm originally developed at NASA LaRC in 1997 for un-known disturbance rejection. Results of these investigations show that GPC combined with an active swashplate can significantly augment the damping and stability of tiltrotors in both hover and high-speed flight.

Transport and stability analyses supporting disruption prediction in high beta KSTAR plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J.-H.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Park, Y. S.; Berkery, J. W.; Jiang, Y.; Riquezes, J.; Lee, H. H.; Terzolo, L.; Scott, S. D.; Wang, Z.; Glasser, A. H.

2017-10-01

KSTAR plasmas have reached high stability parameters in dedicated experiments, with normalized beta βN exceeding 4.3 at relatively low plasma internal inductance li (βN/li>6). Transport and stability analyses have begun on these plasmas to best understand a disruption-free path toward the design target of βN = 5 while aiming to maximize the non-inductive fraction of these plasmas. Initial analysis using the TRANSP code indicates that the non-inductive current fraction in these plasmas has exceeded 50 percent. The advent of KSTAR kinetic equilibrium reconstructions now allows more accurate computation of the MHD stability of these plasmas. Attention is placed on code validation of mode stability using the PEST-3 and resistive DCON codes. Initial evaluation of these analyses for disruption prediction is made using the disruption event characterization and forecasting (DECAF) code. The present global mode kinetic stability model in DECAF developed for low aspect ratio plasmas is evaluated to determine modifications required for successful disruption prediction of KSTAR plasmas. Work supported by U.S. DoE under contract DE-SC0016614.

Modelling, design and stability analysis of an improved SEPIC converter for renewable energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

G, Dileep; Singh, S. N.; Singh, G. K.

2017-09-01

In this paper, a detailed modelling and analysis of a switched inductor (SI)-based improved single-ended primary inductor converter (SEPIC) has been presented. To increase the gain of conventional SEPIC converter, input and output side inductors are replaced with SI structures. Design and stability analysis for continuous conduction mode operation of the proposed SI-SEPIC converter has also been presented in this paper. State space averaging technique is used to model the converter and carry out the stability analysis. Performance and stability analysis of closed loop configuration is predicted by observing the open loop behaviour using Nyquist diagram and Nichols chart. System was found to stable and critically damped.

Efficient first-principles prediction of solid stability: Towards chemical accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yubo; Kitchaev, Daniil A.; Yang, Julia; Chen, Tina; Dacek, Stephen T.; Sarmiento-Pérez, Rafael A.; Marques, Maguel A. L.; Peng, Haowei; Ceder, Gerbrand; Perdew, John P.; Sun, Jianwei

2018-03-01

The question of material stability is of fundamental importance to any analysis of system properties in condensed matter physics and materials science. The ability to evaluate chemical stability, i.e., whether a stoichiometry will persist in some chemical environment, and structure selection, i.e. what crystal structure a stoichiometry will adopt, is critical to the prediction of materials synthesis, reactivity and properties. Here, we demonstrate that density functional theory, with the recently developed strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional, has advanced to a point where both facets of the stability problem can be reliably and efficiently predicted for main group compounds, while transition metal compounds are improved but remain a challenge. SCAN therefore offers a robust model for a significant portion of the periodic table, presenting an opportunity for the development of novel materials and the study of fine phase transformations even in largely unexplored systems with little to no experimental data.

A preliminary correlation of the orbiter stability and control aerodynamics from the first two Space Shuttle flights /STS-1 & 2/ with preflight predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Underwood, J. M.; Cooke, D. R.

1982-01-01

A correlation of the stability and control derivatives from flight (STS-1 & 2) with preflight predictions is presented across the Mach range from 0.9 to 25. Flight data obtained from specially designed flight test maneuvers as well as from conventional bank maneuvers generally indicate good agreement with predicted data. However, the vehicle appears to be lateral-directionally more stable than predicted in the transonic regime. Aerodynamic 'reasonableness tests' are employed to test for validity of flight data. The importance of testing multiple models in multiple wind tunnels at the same test conditions is demonstrated.

Calculating electron cyclotron current drive stabilization of resistive tearing modes in a nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Thomas G.; Kruger, Scott E.; Hegna, C. C.; Schnack, Dalton D.; Sovinec, Carl R.

2010-01-01

A model which incorporates the effects of electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) into the magnetohydrodynamic equations is implemented in the NIMROD code [C. R. Sovinec et al., J. Comput. Phys. 195, 355 (2004)] and used to investigate the effect of ECCD injection on the stability, growth, and dynamical behavior of magnetic islands associated with resistive tearing modes. In addition to qualitatively and quantitatively agreeing with numerical results obtained from the inclusion of localized ECCD deposition in static equilibrium solvers [A. Pletzer and F. W. Perkins, Phys. Plasmas 6, 1589 (1999)], predictions from the model further elaborate the role which rational surface motion plays in these results. The complete suppression of the (2,1) resistive tearing mode by ECCD is demonstrated and the relevant stabilization mechanism is determined. Consequences of the shifting of the mode rational surface in response to the injected current are explored, and the characteristic short-time responses of resistive tearing modes to spatial ECCD alignments which are stabilizing are also noted. We discuss the relevance of this work to the development of more comprehensive predictive models for ECCD-based mitigation and control of neoclassical tearing modes.

TGLF Recalibration for ITER Standard Case Parameters FY2015: Theory and Simulation Performance Target Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Candy, J.

2015-12-01

This work was motivated by the observation, as early as 2008, that GYRO simulations of some ITER operating scenarios exhibited nonlinear zonal-flow generation large enough to effectively quench turbulence inside r /a ~ 0.5. This observation of flow-dominated, low-transport states persisted even as more accurate and comprehensive predictions of ITER profiles were made using the state-of-the-art TGLF transport model. This core stabilization is in stark contrast to GYRO-TGLF comparisons for modern-day tokamaks, for which GYRO and TGLF are typically in very close agreement. So, we began to suspect that TGLF needed to be generalized to include the effect of zonal-flowmore » stabilization in order to be more accurate for the conditions of reactor simulations. While the precise cause of the GYRO-TGLF discrepancy for ITER parameters was not known, it was speculated that closeness to threshold in the absence of driven rotation, as well as electromagnetic stabilization, created conditions more sensitive the self-generated zonal-flow stabilization than in modern tokamaks. Need for nonlinear zonal-flow stabilization: To explore the inclusion of a zonal-flow stabilization mechanism in TGLF, we started with a nominal ITER profile predicted by TGLF, and then performed linear and nonlinear GYRO simulations to characterize the behavior at and slightly above the nominal temperature gradients for finite levels of energy transport. Then, we ran TGLF on these cases to see where the discrepancies were largest. The predicted ITER profiles were indeed near to the TGLF threshold over most of the plasma core in the hybrid discharge studied (weak magnetic shear, q > 1). Scanning temperature gradients above the TGLF power balance values also showed that TGLF overpredicted the electron energy transport in the low-collisionality ITER plasma. At first (in Q3), a model of only the zonal-flow stabilization (Dimits shift) was attempted. Although we were able to construct an ad hoc model of the zonal flows that fit the GYRO simulations, the parameters of the model had to be tuned to each case. A physics basis for the zonal flow model was lacking. Electron energy transport at short wavelength: A secondary issue – the high-k electron energy flux – was initially assumed to be independent of the zonal flow effect. However, detailed studies of the fluctuation spectra from recent multiscale (electron and ion scale) GYRO simulations provided a critical new insight into the role of zonal flows. The multiscale simulations suggested that advection by the zonal flows strongly suppressed electron-scale turbulence. Radial shear of the zonal E×B fluctuation could not compete with the large electron-scale linear growth rate, but the k x-mixing rate of the E×B advection could. This insight led to a preliminary new model for the way zonal flows saturate both electron- and ion-scale turbulence. It was also discovered that the strength of the zonal E×B velocity could be computed from the linear growth rate spectrum. The new saturation model (SAT1), which replaces the original model (SAT0), was fit to the multiscale GYRO simulations as well as the ion-scale GYRO simulations used to calibrate the original SAT0 model. Thus, SAT1 captures the physics of both multiscale electron transport and zonal-flow stabilization. In future work, the SAT1 model will require significant further testing and (expensive) calibration with nonlinear multiscale gyrokinetic simulations over a wider variety of plasma conditions – certainly more than the small set of scans about a single C-Mod L-mode discharge. We believe the SAT1 model holds great promise as a physics-based model of the multiscale turbulent transport in fusion devices. Correction to ITER performance predictions: Finally, the impact of the SAT1model on the ITER hybrid case is mixed. Without the electron-scale contribution to the fluxes, the Dimits shift makes a significant improvement in the predicted fusion power as originally posited. Alas, including the high-k electron transport reduces the improvement, yielding a modest net increase in predicted fusion power compared to the TGLF prediction with the original SAT0 model.« less

Role of conformational sampling in computing mutation-induced changes in protein structure and stability.

PubMed

Kellogg, Elizabeth H; Leaver-Fay, Andrew; Baker, David

2011-03-01

The prediction of changes in protein stability and structure resulting from single amino acid substitutions is both a fundamental test of macromolecular modeling methodology and an important current problem as high throughput sequencing reveals sequence polymorphisms at an increasing rate. In principle, given the structure of a wild-type protein and a point mutation whose effects are to be predicted, an accurate method should recapitulate both the structural changes and the change in the folding-free energy. Here, we explore the performance of protocols which sample an increasing diversity of conformations. We find that surprisingly similar performances in predicting changes in stability are achieved using protocols that involve very different amounts of conformational sampling, provided that the resolution of the force field is matched to the resolution of the sampling method. Methods involving backbone sampling can in some cases closely recapitulate the structural changes accompanying mutations but not surprisingly tend to do more harm than good in cases where structural changes are negligible. Analysis of the outliers in the stability change calculations suggests areas needing particular improvement; these include the balance between desolvation and the formation of favorable buried polar interactions, and unfolded state modeling. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

An image processing approach for investigation on transport of iron oxide nanoparticles (FE3O4) stabilized with poly acrylic acid in two-dimensional porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golzar, M.; Azhdary Moghaddam, M.; Saghravani, S. F.; Dahrazma, B.

2018-04-01

Iron oxide nanoparticles were stabilized using poly acrylic acid (PAA) to yield stabilized slurry of Iron oxide nanoparticles. A two-dimensional physical model filled by glass beads was used to study the fate and transport of the iron oxide nanoparticles stabilized with PAA in porous media under saturated, steady-state flow conditions. Transport data for a nonreactive tracer, slurry of iron oxide nanoparticles stabilized with PAA were collected under similar flow conditions. The results show that low concentration slurry of iron oxide nanoparticles stabilized with PAA can be transported like a tracer without significant retardation. The image processing technique was employed to measure the tracer/nanoparticle concentration inside the 2-D model filled with glass beads. The groundwater flow model, Visual MODFLOW, was used to model the observed transport patterns through MT3DMS module. Finally, it was demonstrated that the numerical model MODFLOW can be used to predict the fate and transport characteristics of nanoparticles stabilized with PAA in groundwater aquifers.

General predictive model of friction behavior regimes for metal contacts based on the formation stability and evolution of nanocrystalline surface films.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Argibay, Nicolas; Cheng, Shengfeng; Sawyer, W. G.

2015-09-01

The prediction of macro-scale friction and wear behavior based on first principles and material properties has remained an elusive but highly desirable target for tribologists and material scientists alike. Stochastic processes (e.g. wear), statistically described parameters (e.g. surface topography) and their evolution tend to defeat attempts to establish practical general correlations between fundamental nanoscale processes and macro-scale behaviors. We present a model based on microstructural stability and evolution for the prediction of metal friction regimes, founded on recently established microstructural deformation mechanisms of nanocrystalline metals, that relies exclusively on material properties and contact stress models. We show through complementary experimentalmore » and simulation results that this model overcomes longstanding practical challenges and successfully makes accurate and consistent predictions of friction transitions for a wide range of contact conditions. This framework not only challenges the assumptions of conventional causal relationships between hardness and friction, and between friction and wear, but also suggests a pathway for the design of higher performance metal alloys.« less

Model predictive control of P-time event graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamri, H.; Kara, R.; Amari, S.

2016-12-01

This paper deals with model predictive control of discrete event systems modelled by P-time event graphs. First, the model is obtained by using the dater evolution model written in the standard algebra. Then, for the control law, we used the finite-horizon model predictive control. For the closed-loop control, we used the infinite-horizon model predictive control (IH-MPC). The latter is an approach that calculates static feedback gains which allows the stability of the closed-loop system while respecting the constraints on the control vector. The problem of IH-MPC is formulated as a linear convex programming subject to a linear matrix inequality problem. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to a transportation system.

Predicting Relationship Stability among Midlife African American Couples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutrona, Carolyn E.; Russell, Daniel W.; Burzette, Rebecca G.; Wesner, Kristin A.; Bryant, Chalandra M.

2011-01-01

Objective: This study examined predictors of relationship stability over 5 years among heterosexual cohabiting and married African American couples raising an elementary-school-age child. The vulnerability-stress-adaptation model of relationships (Karney & Bradbury, 1995) guided the investigation. Contextual variables were conceptualized as…

Quantitative assessment of the risk of microbial spoilage in foods. Prediction of non-stability at 55 °C caused by Geobacillus stearothermophilus in canned green beans.

PubMed

Rigaux, Clémence; André, Stéphane; Albert, Isabelle; Carlin, Frédéric

2014-02-03

Microbial spoilage of canned foods by thermophilic and highly heat-resistant spore-forming bacteria, such as Geobacillus stearothermophilus, is a persistent problem in the food industry. An incubation test at 55 °C for 7 days, then validation of biological stability, is used as an indicator of compliance with good manufacturing practices. We propose a microbial risk assessment model predicting the percentage of non-stability due to G. stearothermophilus in canned green beans manufactured by a French company. The model accounts for initial microbial contaminations of fresh unprocessed green beans with G. stearothermophilus, cross-contaminations in the processing chain, inactivation processes and probability of survival and growth. The sterilization process is modeled by an equivalent heating time depending on sterilization value F₀ and on G. stearothermophilus resistance parameter z(T). Following the recommendations of international organizations, second order Monte-Carlo simulations are used, separately propagating uncertainty and variability on parameters. As a result of the model, the mean predicted non-stability rate is of 0.5%, with a 95% uncertainty interval of [0.1%; 1.2%], which is highly similar to data communicated by the French industry. A sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices and some scenario tests underline the importance of cross-contamination at the blanching step, in addition to inactivation due to the sterilization process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of incidence and stability of alcohol use disorders by latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles in adolescence and young adulthood.

PubMed

Behrendt, Silke; Bühringer, Gerhard; Höfler, Michael; Lieb, Roselind; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

2017-10-01

Comorbid internalizing mental disorders in alcohol use disorders (AUD) can be understood as putative independent risk factors for AUD or as expressions of underlying shared psychopathology vulnerabilities. However, it remains unclear whether: 1) specific latent internalizing psychopathology risk-profiles predict AUD-incidence and 2) specific latent internalizing comorbidity-profiles in AUD predict AUD-stability. To investigate baseline latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles as predictors of subsequent AUD-incidence and -stability in adolescents and young adults. Data from the prospective-longitudinal EDSP study (baseline age 14-24 years) were used. The study-design included up to three follow-up assessments in up to ten years. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI. To investigate risk-profiles and their associations with AUD-outcomes, latent class analysis with auxiliary outcome variables was applied. AUD-incidence: a 4-class model (N=1683) was identified (classes: normative-male [45.9%], normative-female [44.2%], internalizing [5.3%], nicotine dependence [4.5%]). Compared to the normative-female class, all other classes were associated with a higher risk of subsequent incident alcohol dependence (p<0.05). AUD-stability: a 3-class model (N=1940) was identified with only one class (11.6%) with high probabilities for baseline AUD. This class was further characterized by elevated substance use disorder (SUD) probabilities and predicted any subsequent AUD (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.4-13.3). An internalizing vulnerability may constitute a pathway to AUD incidence in adolescence and young adulthood. In contrast, no indication for a role of internalizing comorbidity profiles in AUD-stability was found, which may indicate a limited importance of such profiles - in contrast to SUD-related profiles - in AUD stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the capability of carboxymethyl cellulose-stabilized iron nanoparticles for the remediation of arsenite from water using the response surface methodology (RSM) model: Modeling and optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Amir; Nemati, Sepideh; Mosaferi, Mohammad; Abdollahnejhad, Ali; Almasian, Mohammad; Sheikhmohammadi, Amir

2017-08-01

This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of carboxymethyl cellulose-stabilized iron nanoparticles (C-nZVI) for the removal of arsenite ions from aqueous solutions. Iron nanoparticles and carboxymethyl cellulose-stabilized iron nanoparticles were freshly synthesized. The synthesized nanomaterials had a size of 10 nm approximately. The transmission electron microscope (TEM) images depicted bulkier dendrite flocs of non-stabilized iron nanoparticles. It described nanoscale particles as not discrete resulting from the aggregation of particles. The scanning electron microscopy (SEM) image showed that C-nZVI is approximately discrete, well-dispersed and an almost spherical shape. The energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDAX) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) spectrum confirmed the presence of Fe0 in the C-nZVI composite. The central composite design under the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was employed in order to investigate the effect of independent variables on arsenite removal and to determine the optimum condition. The reduced full second-order model indicated a well-fitted model since the experimental values were in good agreement with it. Therefore, this model is used for the prediction and optimization of arsenite removal from water. The maximum removal efficiency was estimated to be 100% when all parameters are considered simultaneously. The predicted optimal conditions for the maximum removal efficiency were achieved with initial arsenite concentration, 0.68 mg L- 1; C-nZVI, 0.3 (g L- 1); time, 31.25 (min) and pH, 5.2.

Research on Improved Depth Belief Network-Based Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hongpo

2018-01-01

Quantitative analysis and prediction can help to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Quantitative prediction based on traditional model has low accuracy. The variance of model prediction based on shallow neural network is larger. In this paper, cardiovascular disease prediction model based on improved deep belief network (DBN) is proposed. Using the reconstruction error, the network depth is determined independently, and unsupervised training and supervised optimization are combined. It ensures the accuracy of model prediction while guaranteeing stability. Thirty experiments were performed independently on the Statlog (Heart) and Heart Disease Database data sets in the UCI database. Experimental results showed that the mean of prediction accuracy was 91.26% and 89.78%, respectively. The variance of prediction accuracy was 5.78 and 4.46, respectively. PMID:29854369

Evaluation of Savannah River Plant emergency response models using standard and nonstandard meteorological data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoel, D.D.

1984-01-01

Two computer codes have been developed for operational use in performing real time evaluations of atmospheric releases from the Savannah River Plant (SRP) in South Carolina. These codes, based on mathematical models, are part of the SRP WIND (Weather Information and Display) automated emergency response system. Accuracy of ground level concentrations from a Gaussian puff-plume model and a two-dimensional sequential puff model are being evaluated with data from a series of short range diffusion experiments using sulfur hexafluoride as a tracer. The models use meteorological data collected from 7 towers on SRP and at the 300 m WJBF-TV tower aboutmore » 15 km northwest of SRP. The winds and the stability, which is based on turbulence measurements, are measured at the 60 m stack heights. These results are compared to downwind concentrations using only standard meteorological data, i.e., adjusted 10 m winds and stability determined by the Pasquill-Turner stability classification method. Scattergrams and simple statistics were used for model evaluations. Results indicate predictions within accepted limits for the puff-plume code and a bias in the sequential puff model predictions using the meteorologist-adjusted nonstandard data. 5 references, 4 figures, 2 tables.« less

Experimental and theoretical investigations on the validity of the geometrical optics model for calculating the stability of optical traps.

PubMed

Schut, T C; Hesselink, G; de Grooth, B G; Greve, J

1991-01-01

We have developed a computer program based on the geometrical optics approach proposed by Roosen to calculate the forces on dielectric spheres in focused laser beams. We have explicitly taken into account the polarization of the laser light and thd divergence of the laser beam. The model can be used to evaluate the stability of optical traps in a variety of different optical configurations. Our calculations explain the experimental observation by Ashkin that a stable single-beam optical trap, without the help of the gravitation force, can be obtained with a strongly divergent laser beam. Our calculations also predict a different trap stability in the directions orthogonal and parallel to the polarization direction of the incident light. Different experimental methods were used to test the predictions of the model for the gravity trap. A new method for measuring the radiation force along the beam axis in both the stable and instable regions is presented. Measurements of the radiation force on polystyrene spheres with diameters of 7.5 and 32 microns in a TEM00-mode laser beam showed a good qualitative correlation with the predictions and a slight quantitative difference. The validity of the geometrical approximations involved in the model will be discussed for spheres of different sizes and refractive indices.

A quiet tunnel investigation of hypersonic boundary-layer stability over a cooled, flared cone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blanchard, Alan E.; Selby, Gregory V.; Wilkinson, Stephen P.

1996-01-01

A flared-cone model under adiabatic and cooled-wall conditions was placed in a calibrated, low-disturbance Mach 6 flow and the stability of the boundary layer was investigated using a prototype constant-voltage anemometer. The results were compared with linear-stability theory predictions and good agreement was found in the prediction of second-mode frequencies and growth. In addition, the same 'N = 10' criterion used to predict boundary-layer transition in subsonic, transonic, and supersonic flows under low freestream noise conditions was found to be applicable for the hypersonic flow regime as well. Under cooled-wall conditions, a unique set of spectral data was acquired that documents the linear, nonlinear, and breakdown regions associated with the transition of hypersonic flow under low-noise conditions.

Running non-minimal inflation with stabilized inflaton potential

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okada, Nobuchika; Raut, Digesh

In the context of the Higgs model involving gauge and Yukawa interactions with the spontaneous gauge symmetry breaking, we consider λφ4 inflation with non- minimal gravitational coupling, where the Higgs field is identified as the inflaton. Since the inflaton quartic coupling is very small, once quantum corrections through the gauge and Yukawa interactions are taken into account, the inflaton effective potential most likely becomes unstable. Furthermore, in order to avoid this problem, we need to impose stability conditions on the effective inflaton potential, which lead to not only non-trivial relations amongst the particle mass spectrum of the model, but alsomore » correlations between the inflationary predictions and the mass spectrum. For reasons of concrete discussion, we investigate the minimal B - L extension of the standard model with identification of the B - L Higgs field as the inflaton. The stability conditions for the inflaton effective potential fix the mass ratio amongst the B - L gauge boson, the right-handed neutrinos and the inflaton. This mass ratio also correlates with the inflationary predictions. So, if the B - L gauge boson and the right-handed neutrinos are discovered in the future, their observed mass ratio provides constraints on the inflationary predictions.« less

Investigation of trunk muscle activities during lifting using a multi-objective optimization-based model and intelligent optimization algorithms.

PubMed

Ghiasi, Mohammad Sadegh; Arjmand, Navid; Boroushaki, Mehrdad; Farahmand, Farzam

2016-03-01

A six-degree-of-freedom musculoskeletal model of the lumbar spine was developed to predict the activity of trunk muscles during light, moderate and heavy lifting tasks in standing posture. The model was formulated into a multi-objective optimization problem, minimizing the sum of the cubed muscle stresses and maximizing the spinal stability index. Two intelligent optimization algorithms, i.e., the vector evaluated particle swarm optimization (VEPSO) and nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA), were employed to solve the optimization problem. The optimal solution for each task was then found in the way that the corresponding in vivo intradiscal pressure could be reproduced. Results indicated that both algorithms predicted co-activity in the antagonistic abdominal muscles, as well as an increase in the stability index when going from the light to the heavy task. For all of the light, moderate and heavy tasks, the muscles' activities predictions of the VEPSO and the NSGA were generally consistent and in the same order of the in vivo electromyography data. The proposed methodology is thought to provide improved estimations for muscle activities by considering the spinal stability and incorporating the in vivo intradiscal pressure data.

Running non-minimal inflation with stabilized inflaton potential

DOE PAGES

Okada, Nobuchika; Raut, Digesh

2017-04-18

In the context of the Higgs model involving gauge and Yukawa interactions with the spontaneous gauge symmetry breaking, we consider λφ4 inflation with non- minimal gravitational coupling, where the Higgs field is identified as the inflaton. Since the inflaton quartic coupling is very small, once quantum corrections through the gauge and Yukawa interactions are taken into account, the inflaton effective potential most likely becomes unstable. Furthermore, in order to avoid this problem, we need to impose stability conditions on the effective inflaton potential, which lead to not only non-trivial relations amongst the particle mass spectrum of the model, but alsomore » correlations between the inflationary predictions and the mass spectrum. For reasons of concrete discussion, we investigate the minimal B - L extension of the standard model with identification of the B - L Higgs field as the inflaton. The stability conditions for the inflaton effective potential fix the mass ratio amongst the B - L gauge boson, the right-handed neutrinos and the inflaton. This mass ratio also correlates with the inflationary predictions. So, if the B - L gauge boson and the right-handed neutrinos are discovered in the future, their observed mass ratio provides constraints on the inflationary predictions.« less

Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium - A test of the validity of dynamic models as applied to gyroviscous perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faghihi, Mustafa; Scheffel, Jan; Spies, Guenther O.

1988-05-01

Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium is put forward as a simple test of the validity of dynamic equations, and is applied to perpendicular gyroviscous magnetohydrodynamics (i.e., perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics with gyroviscosity added). This model turns out to be invalid because it predicts exponentially growing Alfven waves in a spatially homogeneous static equilibrium with scalar pressure.

Prediction and analysis of structure, stability and unfolding of thermolysin-like proteases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vriend, Gert; Eijsink, Vincent

1993-08-01

Bacillus neutral proteases (NPs) form a group of well-characterized homologous enzymes, that exhibit large differences in thermostability. The three-dimensional (3D) structures of several of these enzymes have been modelled on the basis of the crystal structures of the NPs of B. thermoproteolyticus (thermolysin) and B. cercus. Several new techniques have been developed to improve the model-building procedures. Also a model-building by mutagenesis' strategy was used, in which mutants were designed just to shed light on parts of the structures that were particularly hard to model. The NP models have been used for the prediction of site-directed mutations aimed at improving the thermostability of the enzymes. Predictions were made using several novel computational techniques, such as position-specific rotamer searching, packing quality analysis and property-profile database searches. Many stabilizing mutations were predicted and produced: improvement of hydrogen bonding, exclusion of buried water molecules, capping helices, improvement of hydrophobic interactions and entropic stabilization have been applied successfully. At elevated temperatures NPs are irreversibly inactivated as a result of autolysis. It has been shown that this denaturation process is independent of the protease activity and concentration and that the inactivation follows first-order kinetics. From this it has been conjectured that local unfolding of (surface) loops, which renders the protein susceptible to autolysis, is the rate-limiting step. Despite the particular nature of the thermal denaturation process, normal rules for protein stability can be applied to NPs. However, rather than stabilizing the whole protein against global unfolding, only a small region has to be protected against local unfolding. In contrast to proteins in general, mutational effects in proteases are not additive and their magnitude is strongly dependent on the location of the mutation. Mutations that alter the stability of the NP by a large amount are located in a relatively weak region (or more precisely, they affect a local unfolding pathway with a relatively low free energy of activation). One weak region, that is supposedly important in the early steps of NP unfolding, has been determined in the NP of B. stearothermophilus. After eliminating this weakest link a drastic increase in thermostability was observed and the search for the second-weakest link, or the second-lowest energy local unfolding pathway is now in progress. Hopefully, this approach can be used to unravel the entire early phase of unfolding.

From crystal chemistry to colloid stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, B.; Burrows, N.; Penn, R. L.

2008-12-01

Aqueous suspensions of ferrihydrite nanoparticles form a colloid with properties that can be understood using classical theories but which additionally exhibit the distinctive phenomenon of nanocluster formation. While use of in situ light and x-ray scattering methods permit the quantitative determination of colloid stability, interparticle interactions, and cluster or aggregate geometry, there are currently few approaches to predict the colloidal behavior of mineral nanoparticles. A longstanding goal of aqueous geochemistry is the rationalization and prediction of the chemical properties of hydrated mineral interfaces from knowledge of interface structure at the molecular scale. Because interfacial acid-base reactions typically lead to the formation of a net electrostatic charge at the surfaces of oxide, hydroxide, and oxyhydroxide mineral surfaces, quantitative descriptions of this behavior have the potential to permit the prediction of long-range interactions between mineral particles. We will evaluate the feasibility of this effort by constructing a model for surface charge formation for ferrihydrite that combines recent insights into the crystal structure of this phase and proposed methods for estimating the pKa of acidic surface groups. We will test the ability of this model to predict the colloidal stability of ferrihydrite suspensions as a function of solution chemistry.

Solvation effect on isomer stability and electronic structures of protonated serotonin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omidyan, Reza; Amanollahi, Zohreh; Azimi, Gholamhassan

2017-07-01

Microsolvation effect on geometry and transition energies of protonated serotonin has been investigated by MP2 and CC2 quantum chemical methods. Also, conductor-like screening model, implemented recently in the MP2 and ADC(2) methods, was examined to address the bulk water environment's effect on the isomer stability and electronic transition energies of protonated serotonin. It has been predicted that the dipole moment of gas phase isomers plays the main role on the isomer stabilization in water solution and electronic transition shifts. Also, both red- and blue-shift effects have been predicted to take place on electronic transition energies, upon hydration.

Global growth and stability of agricultural yield decrease with pollinator dependence

PubMed Central

Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Aizen, Marcelo A.; Klein, Alexandra M.; Cunningham, Saul A.; Harder, Lawrence D.

2011-01-01

Human welfare depends on the amount and stability of agricultural production, as determined by crop yield and cultivated area. Yield increases asymptotically with the resources provided by farmers’ inputs and environmentally sensitive ecosystem services. Declining yield growth with increased inputs prompts conversion of more land to cultivation, but at the risk of eroding ecosystem services. To explore the interdependence of agricultural production and its stability on ecosystem services, we present and test a general graphical model, based on Jensen's inequality, of yield–resource relations and consider implications for land conversion. For the case of animal pollination as a resource influencing crop yield, this model predicts that incomplete and variable pollen delivery reduces yield mean and stability (inverse of variability) more for crops with greater dependence on pollinators. Data collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations during 1961–2008 support these predictions. Specifically, crops with greater pollinator dependence had lower mean and stability in relative yield and yield growth, despite global yield increases for most crops. Lower yield growth was compensated by increased land cultivation to enhance production of pollinator-dependent crops. Area stability also decreased with pollinator dependence, as it correlated positively with yield stability among crops. These results reveal that pollen limitation hinders yield growth of pollinator-dependent crops, decreasing temporal stability of global agricultural production, while promoting compensatory land conversion to agriculture. Although we examined crop pollination, our model applies to other ecosystem services for which the benefits to human welfare decelerate as the maximum is approached. PMID:21422295

A spectral clustering search algorithm for predicting shallow landslide size and location

Treesearch

Dino Bellugi; David G. Milledge; William E. Dietrich; Jim A. McKean; J. Taylor Perron; Erik B. Sudderth; Brian Kazian

2015-01-01

The potential hazard and geomorphic significance of shallow landslides depend on their location and size. Commonly applied one-dimensional stability models do not include lateral resistances and cannot predict landslide size. Multi-dimensional models must be applied to specific geometries, which are not known a priori, and testing all possible geometries is...

Stability analysis in tachyonic potential chameleon cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farajollahi, H.; Salehi, A.; Tayebi, F.

2011-05-01

We study general properties of attractors for tachyonic potential chameleon scalar-field model which possess cosmological scaling solutions. An analytic formulation is given to obtain fixed points with a discussion on their stability. The model predicts a dynamical equation of state parameter with phantom crossing behavior for an accelerating universe. We constrain the parameters of the model by best fitting with the recent data-sets from supernovae and simulated data points for redshift drift experiment generated by Monte Carlo simulations.

A Study on Multi-Swing Stability Analysis of Power System using Damping Rate Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Takao; Morii, Yuki; Oyama, Tsutomu; Hashiguchi, Takuhei; Goda, Tadahiro; Nomiyama, Fumitoshi; Kosugi, Narifumi

In recent years, much attention is paid to the nonlinear analysis method in the field of stability analysis of power systems. Especially for the multi-swing stability analysis, the unstable limit cycle has an important meaning as a stability margin. It is required to develop a high speed calculation method of stability boundary regarding multi-swing stability because the real-time calculation of ATC is necessary to realize the flexible wheeling trades. Therefore, the authors have developed a new method which can calculate the unstable limit cycle based on damping rate inversion method. Using the unstable limit cycle, it is possible to predict the multi-swing stability at the time when the fault transmission line is reclosed. The proposed method is tested in Lorenz equation, single-machine infinite-bus system model and IEEJ WEST10 system model.

Stability of Ensemble Models Predicts Productivity of Enzymatic Systems

DOE PAGES

Theisen, Matthew K.; Lafontaine Rivera, Jimmy G.; Liao, James C.

2016-03-10

Stability in a metabolic system may not be obtained if incorrect amounts of enzymes are used. Without stability, some metabolites may accumulate or deplete leading to the irreversible loss of the desired operating point. Even if initial enzyme amounts achieve a stable steady state, changes in enzyme amount due to stochastic variations or environmental changes may move the system to the unstable region and lose the steady-state or quasi-steady-state flux. This situation is distinct from the phenomenon characterized by typical sensitivity analysis, which focuses on the smooth change before loss of stability. Here we show that metabolic networks differ significantlymore » in their intrinsic ability to attain stability due to the network structure and kinetic forms, and that after achieving stability, some enzymes are prone to cause instability upon changes in enzyme amounts. We use Ensemble Modelling for Robustness Analysis (EMRA) to analyze stability in four cell-free enzymatic systems when enzyme amounts are changed. Loss of stability in continuous systems can lead to lower production even when the system is tested experimentally in batch experiments. The predictions of instability by EMRA are supported by the lower productivity in batch experimental tests. Finally, the EMRA method incorporates properties of network structure, including stoichiometry and kinetic form, but does not require specific parameter values of the enzymes.« less

Computer aided modeling of soil mix designs to predict characteristics and properties of stabilized road bases.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

"Considerable data exists for soils that were tested and documented, both for native properties and : properties with pozzolan stabilization. While the data exists there was no database for the Nebraska : Department of Roads to retrieve this data for...

A model of neuro-musculo-skeletal system for human locomotion under position constraint condition.

PubMed

Ni, Jiangsheng; Hiramatsu, Seiji; Kato, Atsuo

2003-08-01

The human locomotion was studied on the basis of the interaction of the musculo-skeletal system, the neural system and the environment. A mathematical model of human locomotion under position constraint condition was established. Besides the neural rhythm generator, the posture controller and the sensory system, the environment feedback controller and the stability controller were taken into account in the model. The environment feedback controller was proposed for two purposes, obstacle avoidance and target position control of the swing foot. The stability controller was proposed to imitate the self-balancing ability of a human body and improve the stability of the model. In the stability controller, the ankle torque was used to control the velocity of the body gravity center. A prediction control algorithm was applied to calculate the torque magnitude of the stability controller. As an example, human stairs climbing movement was simulated and the results were given. The simulation result proved that the mathematical modeling of the task was successful.

Use of visible and near-infrared spectroscopy to predict pork longissimus lean color stability.

PubMed

King, D A; Shackelford, S D; Wheeler, T L

2011-12-01

This study evaluated the use of visible and near-infrared (VISNIR) spectroscopy to predict lean color stability in pork loin chops. Spectra were collected immediately after and approximately 1 h after rib removal on 1,208 loins. Loins were aged for 14 d before a 2.54-cm chop was placed in simulated retail display. Spectra were collected on aged loins immediately after removal from the vacuum package and on chops 10 min after cutting. Instrumental color measurements [L*, a*, b*, hue angle, chroma, and E (overall color change)] were determined on d 0, 1, 7, 11, and 14 of display. Principal components analysis of display d 0 and 14 values of these traits identified a factor (first principal component; PC1) explaining 67% of the variance that was related to color change. Partial least squares regression was used to develop 3 models to predict PC1 values by using VISNIR spectra collected in the plant, on aged loins, and on chops. Loins with predicted PC1 values less than 0 were classified as having a stable color, whereas values greater than 0 were classified as having a labile lean color. Loins classified as stable by the in-plant model had smaller (P < 0.05) L* values than those classified as labile. Hue angle and ΔE values were less (P < 0.05) and a* and chroma values were greater (P < 0.05) after d 7 of display in loins predicted to have a stable color than in loins predicted to have a labile lean color. Similarly, chops from loins classified as stable using the aged loin model had smaller (P < 0.05) L* values than those from loins classified as labile. Furthermore, loins predicted to be stable had smaller (P < 0.05) hue angle and ΔE values and greater (P < 0.05) a* and chroma values after d 7 of display than did loins predicted to be labile. Results for the chop model were similar to those from the 2 loin models. Chops predicted to have a stable lean color had smaller (P < 0.05) L* values than did those predicted to have a labile lean color. Chops classified as stable had smaller (P < 0.05) hue angle and ΔE values and greater (P < 0.05) a* and chroma values after d 7 of display compared with chops classified as labile. All 3 models effectively segregated chops based on color stability, particularly with regard to redness. Regardless of the model being used, d 14 display values for a*, hue angle, and ΔE in loins classified as stable were similar to the d 7 values of loins classified as labile. Thus, these results suggest that VISNIR spectroscopy would be an effective technology for sorting pork loins with regard to lean color stability.

The stability of a flexible cantilever in viscous channel flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cisonni, Julien; Lucey, Anthony D.; Elliott, Novak S. J.; Heil, Matthias

2017-05-01

Most studies of the flow-induced flutter instability of a flexible cantilever have assumed inviscid flow because of the high flow speeds and the large scale of the structures encountered in the wide range of applications of this fluid-structure interaction (FSI) system. However, for instance, in the fields of energy harvesting and biomechanics, low flow speeds and small- and micro-scale systems can give relatively low Reynolds numbers so that fluid viscosity needs to be explicitly accounted for to provide reliable predictions of channel-immersed-cantilever stability. In this study, we employ a numerical model coupling the Navier-Stokes equations and a one-dimensional elastic beam model. We conduct a parametric investigation to determine the conditions leading to flutter instability of a slender flexible cantilever immersed in two-dimensional viscous channel flow for Reynolds numbers lower than 1000. The large set of numerical simulations carried out allows predictions of the influence of decreasing Reynolds numbers and of the cantilever confinement on the single-mode neutral stability of the FSI system and on the pre- and post-critical cantilever motion. This model's predictions are also compared to those of a FSI model containing a two-dimensional solid model in order to assess, primarily, the effect of the cantilever slenderness in the simulations. Results show that an increasing contribution of viscosity to the hydrodynamic forces significantly alters the instability boundaries. In general, a decrease in Reynolds number is predicted to produce a stabilisation of the FSI system, which is more pronounced for high fluid-to-solid mass ratios. For particular fluid-to-solid mass ratios, viscous effects can lower the critical velocity and lead to a change in the first unstable structural mode. However, at constant Reynolds number, the effects of viscosity on the system stability are diminished by the confinement of the cantilever, which strengthens the importance of flow inertia.

The roles of ecological first principles and evolutionary contingency in unraveling ecosystem response and reconstruction during the Permian-Triassic transition.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roopnarine, P. D.; Weik, A.; Dineen, A.; Angielczyk, K.

2016-12-01

The Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME) is the most severe mass extinction recorded in Earth's history. Effects on the biosphere were complicated and often contradictory, e.g. selective species extinctions and exceptional species survival; prolonged miniaturization of some Early Triassic clades but rapid increases of size in others; and both simplified and complex trophic structures in various E. Triassic ecosystems. Here we present the results of a new generalized model of paleocommunity global stability (number of species capable of persistent coexistence in the absence of external perturbation), suggesting that community dynamics in response to species extinction, and the addition of new species in the aftermath of the PTME, is best understood as a complex outcome of predictable community dynamics and contingent, unpredictable evolutionary pathways. We applied the model to the best known PTME transitional terrestrial ecosystem, the Karoo Basin of South Africa. The model verifies previous claims that global stability scales negatively with increasing species richness and the strength of interspecific interactions. We also show that global stability scales negatively with intrinsic population growth rates. Taxon-rich Permian communities could therefore have persisted only under a restricted range of those parameters. Communities during three phases of the PTME, however, exhibited greater global stability than would be predicted from the pre-PTME communities. Those communities could therefore have maintained relative stabilities under a broader range of parameters, implying that species could have adapted by modifying life history and ecological traits with lesser negative consequences to community stability. The earliest post-PTME community with increased species richness, however, was less stable than would be predicted from pre-PTME communities. In both the extinction and aftermath communities, nonlinear deviations from the general scaling of stability result from structural features unique to those communities, perhaps limiting our ability to forecast biospheric responses to extreme perturbations.

Automated use of mutagenesis data in structure prediction.

PubMed

Nanda, Vikas; DeGrado, William F

2005-05-15

In the absence of experimental structural determination, numerous methods are available to indirectly predict or probe the structure of a target molecule. Genetic modification of a protein sequence is a powerful tool for identifying key residues involved in binding reactions or protein stability. Mutagenesis data is usually incorporated into the modeling process either through manual inspection of model compatibility with empirical data, or through the generation of geometric constraints linking sensitive residues to a binding interface. We present an approach derived from statistical studies of lattice models for introducing mutation information directly into the fitness score. The approach takes into account the phenotype of mutation (neutral or disruptive) and calculates the energy for a given structure over an ensemble of sequences. The structure prediction procedure searches for the optimal conformation where neutral sequences either have no impact or improve stability and disruptive sequences reduce stability relative to wild type. We examine three types of sequence ensembles: information from saturation mutagenesis, scanning mutagenesis, and homologous proteins. Incorporating multiple sequences into a statistical ensemble serves to energetically separate the native state and misfolded structures. As a result, the prediction of structure with a poor force field is sufficiently enhanced by mutational information to improve accuracy. Furthermore, by separating misfolded conformations from the target score, the ensemble energy serves to speed up conformational search algorithms such as Monte Carlo-based methods. Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Learning probabilistic models of hydrogen bond stability from molecular dynamics simulation trajectories.

PubMed

Chikalov, Igor; Yao, Peggy; Moshkov, Mikhail; Latombe, Jean-Claude

2011-02-15

Hydrogen bonds (H-bonds) play a key role in both the formation and stabilization of protein structures. They form and break while a protein deforms, for instance during the transition from a non-functional to a functional state. The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor. This paper describes inductive learning methods to train protein-independent probabilistic models of H-bond stability from molecular dynamics (MD) simulation trajectories of various proteins. The training data contains 32 input attributes (predictors) that describe an H-bond and its local environment in a conformation c and the output attribute is the probability that the H-bond will be present in an arbitrary conformation of this protein achievable from c within a time duration Δ. We model dependence of the output variable on the predictors by a regression tree. Several models are built using 6 MD simulation trajectories containing over 4000 distinct H-bonds (millions of occurrences). Experimental results demonstrate that such models can predict H-bond stability quite well. They perform roughly 20% better than models based on H-bond energy alone. In addition, they can accurately identify a large fraction of the least stable H-bonds in a conformation. In most tests, about 80% of the 10% H-bonds predicted as the least stable are actually among the 10% truly least stable. The important attributes identified during the tree construction are consistent with previous findings. We use inductive learning methods to build protein-independent probabilistic models to study H-bond stability, and demonstrate that the models perform better than H-bond energy alone.

Equilibrium star formation in a constant Q disc: model optimization and initial tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zheng; Meurer, Gerhardt R.; Heckman, Timothy M.; Thilker, David A.; Zwaan, Martin A.

2013-10-01

We develop a model for the distribution of the interstellar medium (ISM) and star formation in galaxies based on recent studies that indicate that galactic discs stabilize to a constant stability parameter, which we combine with prescriptions of how the phases of the ISM are determined and for the star formation law (SFL). The model predicts the gas surface mass density and star formation intensity of a galaxy given its rotation curve, stellar surface mass density and the gas velocity dispersion. This model is tested on radial profiles of neutral and molecular ISM surface mass density and star formation intensity of 12 galaxies selected from the H I Nearby Galaxy Survey sample. Our tests focus on intermediate radii (0.3 to 1 times the optical radius) because there are insufficient data to test the outer discs and the fits are less accurate in detail in the centre. Nevertheless, the model produces reasonable agreement with the ISM mass and star formation rate integrated over the central region in all but one case. To optimize the model, we evaluate four recipes for the stability parameter, three recipes for apportioning the ISM into molecular and neutral components, and eight versions of the SFL. We find no clear-cut best prescription for the two-fluid (gas and stars) stability parameter Q2f and therefore for simplicity, we use the Wang and Silk approximation (QWS). We found that an empirical scaling between the molecular-to-neutral ISM ratio (Rmol) and the stellar surface mass density proposed by Leroy et al. works marginally better than the other two prescriptions for this ratio in predicting the ISM profiles, and noticeably better in predicting the star formation intensity from the ISM profiles produced by our model with the SFLs we tested. Thus, in the context of our modelled ISM profiles, the linear molecular SFL and the two-component SFL work better than the other prescriptions we tested. We incorporate these relations into our `constant Q disc' model.

A polynomial based model for cell fate prediction in human diseases.

PubMed

Ma, Lichun; Zheng, Jie

2017-12-21

Cell fate regulation directly affects tissue homeostasis and human health. Research on cell fate decision sheds light on key regulators, facilitates understanding the mechanisms, and suggests novel strategies to treat human diseases that are related to abnormal cell development. In this study, we proposed a polynomial based model to predict cell fate. This model was derived from Taylor series. As a case study, gene expression data of pancreatic cells were adopted to test and verify the model. As numerous features (genes) are available, we employed two kinds of feature selection methods, i.e. correlation based and apoptosis pathway based. Then polynomials of different degrees were used to refine the cell fate prediction function. 10-fold cross-validation was carried out to evaluate the performance of our model. In addition, we analyzed the stability of the resultant cell fate prediction model by evaluating the ranges of the parameters, as well as assessing the variances of the predicted values at randomly selected points. Results show that, within both the two considered gene selection methods, the prediction accuracies of polynomials of different degrees show little differences. Interestingly, the linear polynomial (degree 1 polynomial) is more stable than others. When comparing the linear polynomials based on the two gene selection methods, it shows that although the accuracy of the linear polynomial that uses correlation analysis outcomes is a little higher (achieves 86.62%), the one within genes of the apoptosis pathway is much more stable. Considering both the prediction accuracy and the stability of polynomial models of different degrees, the linear model is a preferred choice for cell fate prediction with gene expression data of pancreatic cells. The presented cell fate prediction model can be extended to other cells, which may be important for basic research as well as clinical study of cell development related diseases.

Predicting unfolding thermodynamics and stable intermediates for alanine-rich helical peptides with the aid of coarse-grained molecular simulation.

PubMed

Calero-Rubio, Cesar; Paik, Bradford; Jia, Xinqiao; Kiick, Kristi L; Roberts, Christopher J

2016-10-01

This report focuses on the molecular-level processes and thermodynamics of unfolding of a series of helical peptides using a coarse-grained (CG) molecular model. The CG model was refined to capture thermodynamics and structural changes as a function of temperature for a set of published peptide sequences. Circular dichroism spectroscopy (CD) was used to experimentally monitor the temperature-dependent conformational changes and stability of published peptides and new sequences introduced here. The model predictions were quantitatively or semi-quantitatively accurate in all cases. The simulations and CD results showed that, as expected, in most cases the unfolding of helical peptides is well described by a simply 2-state model, and conformational stability increased with increased length of the helices. A notable exception in a 19-residue helix was when two Ala residues were each replaced with Phe. This stabilized a partly unfolded intermediate state via hydrophobic contacts, and also promoted aggregates at higher peptide concentrations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Electrostatic Forces in RNA Folding

PubMed Central

Tan, Zhi-Jie; Chen, Shi-Jie

2016-01-01

Metal ion-mediated electrostatic interactions are critical to RNA folding. Although considerable progress has been made in mechanistic studies, the problem of accurate predictions for the ion effects in RNA folding remains unsolved, mainly due to the complexity of several potentially important issues such as ion correlation and dehydration effects. In this chapter, after giving a brief overview of the experimental findings and theoretical approaches, we focus on a recently developed new model, the tightly bound ion (TBI) model, for ion electrostatics in RNA folding. The model is unique because it can treat ion correlation and fluctuation effects for realistic RNA 3D structures. For monovalent ion (such as Na+) solutions, where ion correlation is weak, TBI and the Poisson–Boltzmann (PB) theory give the same results and the results agree with the experimental data. For multivalent ion (such as Mg2+) solutions, where ion correlation can be strong, however, TBI gives much improved predictions than the PB. Moreover, the model suggests an ion correlation- induced mechanism for the unusual efficiency of Mg2+ ions in the stabilization of RNA tertiary folds. In this chapter, after introducing the theoretical framework of the TBI model, we will describe how to apply the model to predict ion-binding properties and ion-dependent folding stabilities. PMID:20946803

Cy3 and Cy5 dyes attached to oligonucleotide terminus stabilize DNA duplexes: predictive thermodynamic model.

PubMed

Moreira, Bernardo G; You, Yong; Owczarzy, Richard

2015-03-01

Cyanine dyes are important chemical modifications of oligonucleotides exhibiting intensive and stable fluorescence at visible light wavelengths. When Cy3 or Cy5 dye is attached to 5' end of a DNA duplex, the dye stacks on the terminal base pair and stabilizes the duplex. Using optical melting experiments, we have determined thermodynamic parameters that can predict the effects of the dyes on duplex stability quantitatively (ΔG°, Tm). Both Cy dyes enhance duplex formation by 1.2 kcal/mol on average, however, this Gibbs energy contribution is sequence-dependent. If the Cy5 is attached to a pyrimidine nucleotide of pyrimidine-purine base pair, the stabilization is larger compared to the attachment to a purine nucleotide. This is likely due to increased stacking interactions of the dye to the purine of the complementary strand. Dangling (unpaired) nucleotides at duplex terminus are also known to enhance duplex stability. Stabilization originated from the Cy dyes is significantly larger than the stabilization due to the presence of dangling nucleotides. If both the dangling base and Cy3 are present, their thermodynamic contributions are approximately additive. New thermodynamic parameters improve predictions of duplex folding, which will help design oligonucleotide sequences for biophysical, biological, engineering, and nanotechnology applications. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Beyond clay: Towards an improved set of variables for predicting soil organic matter content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Craig; Heckman, Katherine; Wieder, William R.; Keiluweit, Marco; Lawrence, Corey R.; Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Crow, Susan E.; Druhan, Jennifer; Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Plante, Alain F.; Schadel, Christina; Schmiel, Joshua P.; Sierra, Carlos A.; Thompson, Aaron; Wagai, Rota

2018-01-01

Improved quantification of the factors controlling soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization at continental to global scales is needed to inform projections of the largest actively cycling terrestrial carbon pool on Earth, and its response to environmental change. Biogeochemical models rely almost exclusively on clay content to modify rates of SOM turnover and fluxes of climate-active CO2 to the atmosphere. Emerging conceptual understanding, however, suggests other soil physicochemical properties may predict SOM stabilization better than clay content. We addressed this discrepancy by synthesizing data from over 5,500 soil profiles spanning continental scale environmental gradients. Here, we demonstrate that other physicochemical parameters are much stronger predictors of SOM content, with clay content having relatively little explanatory power. We show that exchangeable calcium strongly predicted SOM content in water-limited, alkaline soils, whereas with increasing moisture availability and acidity, iron- and aluminum-oxyhydroxides emerged as better predictors, demonstrating that the relative importance of SOM stabilization mechanisms scales with climate and acidity. These results highlight the urgent need to modify biogeochemical models to better reflect the role of soil physicochemical properties in SOM cycling.

An Experimental Investigation of Wall-Cooling Effects on Hypersonic Boundary-Layer Stability in a Quiet Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blanchard, Alan E.; Selby, Gregory V.

1996-01-01

One of the primary reasons for developing quiet tunnels is for the investigation of high-speed boundary-layer stability and transition phenomena without the transition-promoting effects of acoustic radiation from tunnel walls. In this experiment, a flared-cone model under adiabatic- and cooled-wall conditions was placed in a calibrated, 'quiet' Mach 6 flow and the stability of the boundary layer was investigated using a prototype constant-voltage anemometer. The results were compared with linear-stability theory predictions and good agreement was found in the prediction of second-mode frequencies and growth. In addition, the same 'N=10' criterion used to predict boundary-layer transition in subsonic, transonic, and supersonic flows was found to be applicable for the hypersonic flow regime as well. Under cooled-wall conditions, a unique set of continuous spectra data was acquired that documents the linear, nonlinear, and breakdown regions associated with the transition of hypersonic flow under low-noise conditions.

Efficient first-principles prediction of solid stability: Towards chemical accuracy

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Yubo; Kitchaev, Daniil A.; Yang, Julia; ...

2018-03-09

The question of material stability is of fundamental importance to any analysis of system properties in condensed matter physics and materials science. The ability to evaluate chemical stability, i.e., whether a stoichiometry will persist in some chemical environment, and structure selection, i.e. what crystal structure a stoichiometry will adopt, is critical to the prediction of materials synthesis, reactivity and properties. In this paper, we demonstrate that density functional theory, with the recently developed strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional, has advanced to a point where both facets of the stability problem can be reliably and efficiently predicted for mainmore » group compounds, while transition metal compounds are improved but remain a challenge. SCAN therefore offers a robust model for a significant portion of the periodic table, presenting an opportunity for the development of novel materials and the study of fine phase transformations even in largely unexplored systems with little to no experimental data.« less

Efficient first-principles prediction of solid stability: Towards chemical accuracy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yubo; Kitchaev, Daniil A.; Yang, Julia

The question of material stability is of fundamental importance to any analysis of system properties in condensed matter physics and materials science. The ability to evaluate chemical stability, i.e., whether a stoichiometry will persist in some chemical environment, and structure selection, i.e. what crystal structure a stoichiometry will adopt, is critical to the prediction of materials synthesis, reactivity and properties. In this paper, we demonstrate that density functional theory, with the recently developed strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional, has advanced to a point where both facets of the stability problem can be reliably and efficiently predicted for mainmore » group compounds, while transition metal compounds are improved but remain a challenge. SCAN therefore offers a robust model for a significant portion of the periodic table, presenting an opportunity for the development of novel materials and the study of fine phase transformations even in largely unexplored systems with little to no experimental data.« less

Materials Screening for the Discovery of New Half-Heuslers: Machine Learning versus ab Initio Methods.

PubMed

Legrain, Fleur; Carrete, Jesús; van Roekeghem, Ambroise; Madsen, Georg K H; Mingo, Natalio

2018-01-18

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly becoming a helpful tool in the search for novel functional compounds. Here we use classification via random forests to predict the stability of half-Heusler (HH) compounds, using only experimentally reported compounds as a training set. Cross-validation yields an excellent agreement between the fraction of compounds classified as stable and the actual fraction of truly stable compounds in the ICSD. The ML model is then employed to screen 71 178 different 1:1:1 compositions, yielding 481 likely stable candidates. The predicted stability of HH compounds from three previous high-throughput ab initio studies is critically analyzed from the perspective of the alternative ML approach. The incomplete consistency among the three separate ab initio studies and between them and the ML predictions suggests that additional factors beyond those considered by ab initio phase stability calculations might be determinant to the stability of the compounds. Such factors can include configurational entropies and quasiharmonic contributions.

Hierarchy of stability factors in reverse shoulder arthroplasty.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Sergio; Keller, Tony S; Levy, Jonathan C; Lee, William E; Luo, Zong-Ping

2008-03-01

Reverse shoulder arthroplasty is being used more frequently to treat irreparable rotator cuff tears in the presence of glenohumeral arthritis and instability. To date, however, design features and functions of reverse shoulder arthroplasty, which may be associated with subluxation and dislocation of these implants, have been poorly understood. We asked: (1) what is the hierarchy of importance of joint compressive force, prosthetic socket depth, and glenosphere size in relation to stability, and (2) is this hierarchy defined by underlying and theoretically predictable joint contact characteristics? We examined the intrinsic stability in terms of the force required to dislocate the humerosocket from the glenosphere of eight commercially available reverse shoulder arthroplasty devices. The hierarchy of factors was led by compressive force followed by socket depth; glenosphere size played a much lesser role in stability of the reverse shoulder arthroplasty device. Similar results were predicted by a mathematical model, suggesting the stability was determined primarily by compressive forces generated by muscles.

An experimental and analytical investigation of isolated rotor flap-lag stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, Gopal H.; Mcnulty, Michael J.

1985-01-01

For flap-lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations are conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasi-steady aerodynamics theory with dynamic inflow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode are emphasized. Accordingly, a soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades is tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 deg. The 1.62-m model rotor is untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. By computerized symbolic manipulation, an analytical model is developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode indentification. It also predicts substall and stall regions to help explain the correlation between theory and data. The correlation shows both the strengths and weaknesses of the data and theory, and promotes further insights into areas in which further study is needed in substall and stall.

On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs

PubMed Central

Truccolo, Wilson

2017-01-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity. PMID:28234899

On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs.

PubMed

Gerhard, Felipe; Deger, Moritz; Truccolo, Wilson

2017-02-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity.

Design and analysis of a model predictive controller for active queue management.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Chen, Hong; Yang, Xiaoping; Ma, Yan

2012-01-01

Model predictive (MP) control as a novel active queue management (AQM) algorithm in dynamic computer networks is proposed. According to the predicted future queue length in the data buffer, early packets at the router are dropped reasonably by the MPAQM controller so that the queue length reaches the desired value with minimal tracking error. The drop probability is obtained by optimizing the network performance. Further, randomized algorithms are applied to analyze the robustness of MPAQM successfully, and also to provide the stability domain of systems with uncertain network parameters. The performances of MPAQM are evaluated through a series of simulations in NS2. The simulation results show that the MPAQM algorithm outperforms RED, PI, and REM algorithms in terms of stability, disturbance rejection, and robustness. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mammalian spontaneous otoacoustic emissions are amplitude-stabilized cochlear standing waves.

PubMed

Shera, Christopher A

2003-07-01

Mammalian spontaneous otoacoustic emissions (SOAEs) have been suggested to arise by three different mechanisms. The local-oscillator model, dating back to the work of Thomas Gold, supposes that SOAEs arise through the local, autonomous oscillation of some cellular constituent of the organ of Corti (e.g., the "active process" underlying the cochlear amplifier). Two other models, by contrast, both suppose that SOAEs are a global collective phenomenon--cochlear standing waves created by multiple internal reflection--but differ on the nature of the proposed power source: Whereas the "passive" standing-wave model supposes that SOAEs are biological noise, passively amplified by cochlear standing-wave resonances acting as narrow-band nonlinear filters, the "active" standing-wave model supposes that standing-wave amplitudes are actively maintained by coherent wave amplification within the cochlea. Quantitative tests of key predictions that distinguish the local-oscillator and global standing-wave models are presented and shown to support the global standing-wave model. In addition to predicting the existence of multiple emissions with a characteristic minimum frequency spacing, the global standing-wave model accurately predicts the mean value of this spacing, its standard deviation, and its power-law dependence on SOAE frequency. Furthermore, the global standing-wave model accounts for the magnitude, sign, and frequency dependence of changes in SOAE frequency that result from modulations in middle-ear stiffness. Although some of these SOAE characteristics may be replicable through artful ad hoc adjustment of local-oscillator models, they all arise quite naturally in the standing-wave framework. Finally, the statistics of SOAE time waveforms demonstrate that SOAEs are coherent, amplitude-stabilized signals, as predicted by the active standing-wave model. Taken together, the results imply that SOAEs are amplitude-stabilized standing waves produced by the cochlea acting as a biological, hydromechanical analog of a laser oscillator. Contrary to recent claims, spontaneous emission of sound from the ear does not require the autonomous mechanical oscillation of its cellular constituents.

A predictive model of iron oxide nanoparticles flocculation tuning Z-potential in aqueous environment for biological application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldassarre, Francesca; Cacciola, Matteo; Ciccarella, Giuseppe

2015-09-01

Iron oxide nanoparticles are the most used magnetic nanoparticles in biomedical and biotechnological field because of their nontoxicity respect to the other metals. The investigation of iron oxide nanoparticles behaviour in aqueous environment is important for the biological applications in terms of polydispersity, mobility, cellular uptake and response to the external magnetic field. Iron oxide nanoparticles tend to agglomerate in aqueous solutions; thus, the stabilisation and aggregation could be modified tuning the colloids physical proprieties. Surfactants or polymers are often used to avoid agglomeration and increase nanoparticles stability. We have modelled and synthesised iron oxide nanoparticles through a co-precipitation method, in order to study the influence of surfactants and coatings on the aggregation state. Thus, we compared experimental results to simulation model data. The change of Z-potential and the clusters size were determined by Dynamic Light Scattering. We developed a suitable numerical model to predict the flocculation. The effects of Volume Mean Diameter and fractal dimension were explored in the model. We obtained the trend of these parameters tuning the Z-potential. These curves matched with the experimental results and confirmed the goodness of the model. Subsequently, we exploited the model to study the influence of nanoparticles aggregation and stability by Z-potential and external magnetic field. The highest Z-potential is reached up with a small external magnetic influence, a small aggregation and then a high suspension stability. Thus, we obtained a predictive model of Iron oxide nanoparticles flocculation that will be exploited for the nanoparticles engineering and experimental setup of bioassays.

The Role of Minority Stressors in Lesbian Relationship Commitment and Persistence over Time.

PubMed

Barrantes, Renzo J; Eaton, Asia A; Veldhuis, Cindy B; Hughes, Tonda L

2017-06-01

The Investment Model of relationship commitment uses interpersonal investment, relationship satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and commitment to predict relationship longevity (Rusbult, 1980, 1983). Although ample support for the Investment Model has been found in heterosexual couples, it appears to be less powerful in predicting stability in same-sex relationships (Beals, Impett, & Peplau, 2002), potentially because the model does not account for factors unique to same-sex relationships, such as anti-gay discrimination. However, no research has tested the nature and power of sexual minority stress factors in predicting same-sex relationship stability over time. Using secondary, longitudinal data collected from a diverse sample of lesbian women in relationships ( N = 211), we examined how internalized homonegativity, sexual identity disclosure, and workplace discrimination affected the Investment Model antecedents of relationship persistence: satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and investment. We tested the influence of sexual minority stressors on Investment Model processes using structural equations modeling and found that sexual identity disclosure was positively associated with satisfaction and investment, internalized homonegativity was only negatively associated with satisfaction and investment, while workplace discrimination was negatively associated with alternatives. Moreover, both relationship satisfaction and investment influenced commitment which predicted persistence in these relationships over about seven years' time, demonstrating support for the Investment Model. Our findings support the addition of sexual minority stress variables to the Investment Model when examining same-sex relationships and implications are discussed.

The Role of Minority Stressors in Lesbian Relationship Commitment and Persistence over Time

PubMed Central

Barrantes, Renzo J.; Eaton, Asia A.; Veldhuis, Cindy B.; Hughes, Tonda L.

2017-01-01

The Investment Model of relationship commitment uses interpersonal investment, relationship satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and commitment to predict relationship longevity (Rusbult, 1980, 1983). Although ample support for the Investment Model has been found in heterosexual couples, it appears to be less powerful in predicting stability in same-sex relationships (Beals, Impett, & Peplau, 2002), potentially because the model does not account for factors unique to same-sex relationships, such as anti-gay discrimination. However, no research has tested the nature and power of sexual minority stress factors in predicting same-sex relationship stability over time. Using secondary, longitudinal data collected from a diverse sample of lesbian women in relationships (N = 211), we examined how internalized homonegativity, sexual identity disclosure, and workplace discrimination affected the Investment Model antecedents of relationship persistence: satisfaction, quality of alternatives, and investment. We tested the influence of sexual minority stressors on Investment Model processes using structural equations modeling and found that sexual identity disclosure was positively associated with satisfaction and investment, internalized homonegativity was only negatively associated with satisfaction and investment, while workplace discrimination was negatively associated with alternatives. Moreover, both relationship satisfaction and investment influenced commitment which predicted persistence in these relationships over about seven years’ time, demonstrating support for the Investment Model. Our findings support the addition of sexual minority stress variables to the Investment Model when examining same-sex relationships and implications are discussed. PMID:28695154

Financial Distress Prediction using Linear Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoso, Noviyanti; Wibowo, Wahyu

2018-03-01

A financial difficulty is the early stages before the bankruptcy. Bankruptcies caused by the financial distress can be seen from the financial statements of the company. The ability to predict financial distress became an important research topic because it can provide early warning for the company. In addition, predicting financial distress is also beneficial for investors and creditors. This research will be made the prediction model of financial distress at industrial companies in Indonesia by comparing the performance of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) combined with variable selection technique. The result of this research is prediction model based on hybrid Stepwise-SVM obtains better balance among fitting ability, generalization ability and model stability than the other models.

Mechanistic Approach to Stability Studies as a Tool for the Optimization and Development of New Products Based on L. rhamnosus Lcr35® in Compliance with Current Regulations

PubMed Central

Muller, Claudia; Busignies, Virginie; Mazel, Vincent; Forestier, Christiane; Nivoliez, Adrien; Tchoreloff, Pierre

2013-01-01

Probiotics are of great current interest in the pharmaceutical industry because of their multiple effects on human health. To beneficially affect the host, an adequate dosage of the probiotic bacteria in the product must be guaranteed from the time of manufacturing to expiration date. Stability test guidelines as laid down by the ICH-Q1A stipulate a minimum testing period of 12 months. The challenge for producers is to reduce this time. In this paper, a mechanistic approach using the Arrhenius model is proposed to predict stability. Applied for the first time to laboratory and industrial probiotic powders, the model was able to provide a reliable mathematical representation of the effects of temperature on bacterial death (R2>0.9). The destruction rate (k) was determined according to the manufacturing process, strain and storage conditions. The marketed product demonstrated a better stability (k = 0.08 months−1) than the laboratory sample (k = 0.80 months−1). With industrial batches, k obtained at 6 months of studies was comparable to that obtained at 12 months, evidence of the model’s robustness. In addition, predicted values at 12 months were greatly similar (±30%) to those obtained by real-time assessing the model’s reliability. This method could be an interesting approach to predict the probiotic stability and could reduce to 6 months the length of stability studies as against 12 (ICH guideline) or 24 months (expiration date). PMID:24244412

Effects of wing modification on an aircraft's aerodynamic parameters as determined from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1986-01-01

A study of the effects of four wing-leading-edge modifications on a general aviation aircraft's stability and control parameters is presented. Flight data from the basic aircraft configuration and configurations with wing modifications are analyzed to determine each wing geometry's stability and control parameters. The parameter estimates and aerodynamic model forms are obtained using the stepwise regression and maximum likelihood techniques. The resulting parameter estimates and aerodynamic models are verified using vortex-lattice theory and by analysis of each model's ability to predict aircraft behavior. Comparisons of the stability and control derivative estimates from the basic wing and the four leading-edge modifications are accomplished so that the effects of each modification on aircraft stability and control derivatives can be determined.

Transition Studies on a Swept-Wing Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saric, William S.

1996-01-01

The present investigation contributes to the understanding of boundary-layer stability and transition by providing detailed measurements of carefully-produced stationary crossflow vortices. It is clear that a successful prediction of transition in swept-wing flows must include an understanding of the detailed physics involved. Receptivity and nonlinear effects must not be ignored. Linear stability theory correctly predicts the expected wavelengths and mode shapes for stationary crossflow, but fails to predict the growth rates, even for low amplitudes. As new computational and analytical methods are developed to deal with three-dimensional boundary layers, the data provided by this experiment will serve as a useful benchmark for comparison.

Modeling of the relationship between dipeptide structure and dipeptide stability, permeability, and ACE inhibitory activity.

PubMed

Foltz, Martin; van Buren, Leo; Klaffke, Werner; Duchateau, Guus S M J E

2009-09-01

Selected di- and tripeptides exhibit angiotensin-I converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitory activity in vitro. However, the efficacy in vivo is most likely limited for most peptides due to low bioavailability. The purpose of this study was to identify descriptors of intestinal stability, permeability, and ACE inhibitory activity of dipeptides. A total of 228 dipeptides were synthesized; intestinal stability was obtained by in vitro digestion, intestinal permeability using Caco-2 cells and ACE inhibitory activity by an in vitro assay. Databases were constructed to study the relationship between structure and activity, permeability, and stability. Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling was performed based on computed models using partial least squares regression based on 400 molecular descriptors. QSAR modeling of dipeptide stability revealed high correlation coefficients (R > 0.65) for models based on Z and X scales. However, amino acid (AA) clustering showed the best results in describing stability of dipeptides. The N-terminal AA residues Asp, Gly, and Pro as well as the C-terminal residues Pro, Ser, Thr, and Asp stabilize dipeptides toward luminal enzymatic peptide hydrolysis. QSAR modeling did not reveal significant correlation models for intestinal permeability. 2D-fingerprint models were identified describing ACE inhibitory activity of dipeptides. The intestinal stability of 12 peptides was predicted. Peptides were synthesized and stability was confirmed in simulated digestion experiments. Based on the results, specific dipeptides can be designed to meet both stability and activity criteria. However, postabsorptive ACE inhibitory activities of dipeptides in vivo are most likely limited due to the very low intestinal permeability of dipeptides.

Multivariate Regression Analysis and Slaughter Livestock,

DTIC Science & Technology

AGRICULTURE, *ECONOMICS), (*MEAT, PRODUCTION), MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS , ANIMALS, WEIGHT, COSTS, PREDICTIONS, STABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, STORAGE, BEEF, PORK, FOOD, STATISTICAL DATA, ACCURACY

Modeling of rolling element bearing mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhill, L. M.

1991-01-01

Roller element bearings provide the primary mechanical interface between rotating and nonrotating components in the high performance turbomachinery of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Knowledge of bearing behavior under various loading and environmental conditions is essential to predicting and understanding the overall behavior of turbopumps, including rotordynamic stability, critical speeds and bearing life. The objective is to develop mathematical models and computer programs to describe the mechanical behavior of ball and cylinder roller bearings under the loading and environmental conditions encountered in the SSME and future high performance rocket engines. This includes characteristics such as nonlinear load/motion relationships, stiffness and damping, rolling element loads for life prediction, and roller and cage stability.

Suppression of nonlinear oscillations in combustors with partial length acoustic liners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Espander, W. R.; Mitchell, C. E.; Baer, M. R.

1975-01-01

An analytical model is formulated for a three-dimensional nonlinear stability problem in a rocket motor combustion chamber. The chamber is modeled as a right circular cylinder with a short (multi-orifice) nozzle, and an acoustic linear covering an arbitrary portion of the cylindrical periphery. The combustion is concentrated at the injector and the gas flow field is characterized by a mean Mach number. The unsteady combustion processes are formulated using the Crocco time lag model. The resulting equations are solved using a Green's function method combined with numerical evaluation techniques. The influence of acoustic liners on the nonlinear waveforms is predicted. Nonlinear stability limits and regions where triggering is possible are also predicted for both lined and unlined combustors in terms of the combustion parameters.

Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of the Pilot Vehicle System (PVS) Closed-Loop Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Tanmay Kumar

Understanding human control behavior is an important step for improving the safety of future aircraft. Considerable resources are invested during the design phase of an aircraft to ensure that the aircraft has desirable handling qualities. However, human pilots exhibit a wide range of control behaviors that are a function of external stimulus, aircraft dynamics, and human psychological properties (such as workload, stress factor, confidence, and sense of urgency factor). This variability is difficult to address comprehensively during the design phase and may lead to undesirable pilot-aircraft interaction, such as pilot-induced oscillations (PIO). This creates the need to keep track of human pilot performance in real-time to monitor the pilot vehicle system (PVS) stability. This work focused on studying human pilot behavior for the longitudinal axis of a remotely controlled research aircraft and using human-in-the-loop (HuIL) simulations to obtain information about the human controlled system (HCS) stability. The work in this dissertation is divided into two main parts: PIO analysis and human control model parameters estimation. To replicate different flight conditions, this study included time delay and elevator rate limiting phenomena, typical of actuator dynamics during the experiments. To study human control behavior, this study employed the McRuer model for single-input single-output manual compensatory tasks. McRuer model is a lead-lag controller with time delay which has been shown to adequately model manual compensatory tasks. This dissertation presents a novel technique to estimate McRuer model parameters in real-time and associated validation using HuIL simulations to correctly predict HCS stability. The McRuer model parameters were estimated in real-time using a Kalman filter approach. The estimated parameters were then used to analyze the stability of the closed-loop HCS and verify them against the experimental data. Therefore, the main contribution of this dissertation is the design of an unscented Kalman filter-based algorithm to estimate McRuer model parameters in real time, and a framework to validate this algorithm for single-input single-output manual compensatory tasks to predict instabilities.

Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Young Children: Predictors of Diagnostic Stability

PubMed Central

Sideridis, Georgios D.; Prock, Lisa Albers; Sheridan, Margaret A.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The goals of this study were (1) to provide estimates of diagnostic stability for a sample of young children diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) after undergoing comprehensive multidisciplinary assessments and (2) to identify baseline child and family characteristics that predict diagnostic stability over time. METHODS: Children aged 3 to 6 years, 11 months consecutively diagnosed with ADHD after multidisciplinary consultations at a tertiary care clinic between 2003 and 2008 were recontacted in 2012 and 2013 (N = 120). At follow-up, the primary outcome was the proportion of children who continued to meet diagnostic criteria for ADHD. To identify predictors of diagnostic stability, logistic regression models were used. In addition, a latent class model was used to independently classify subjects into distinct clusters. RESULTS: In this cohort, 70.4% of the children contacted at follow-up continued to meet diagnostic criteria for ADHD. Predictors of diagnostic stability included externalizing and internalizing symptoms at baseline, parental history of psychopathology, and family socioeconomic status. The latent class model independently identified 3 distinct profiles: (1) children who no longer met ADHD criteria; (2) children with persistent ADHD and high parental psychopathology; and (3) children with persistent ADHD and low family socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: Young children who underwent comprehensive developmental and psychological assessments before receiving an ADHD diagnosis, had higher rates of diagnostic stability than in previous studies of community samples. Child and family factors that predict diagnostic stability have the potential to guide treatment planning for children diagnosed with ADHD before 7 years of age. PMID:24639272

On the Effect of Sodium Chloride and Sodium Sulfate on Cold Denaturation

PubMed Central

Pica, Andrea; Graziano, Giuseppe

2015-01-01

Both sodium chloride and sodium sulfate are able to stabilize yeast frataxin, causing an overall increase of its thermodynamic stability curve, with a decrease in the cold denaturation temperature and an increase in the hot denaturation one. The influence of low concentrations of these two salts on yeast frataxin stability can be assessed by the application of a theoretical model based on scaled particle theory. First developed to figure out the mechanism underlying cold denaturation in water, this model is able to predict the stabilization of globular proteins provided by these two salts. The densities of the salt solutions and their temperature dependence play a fundamental role. PMID:26197394

The Impact of Prophage on the Equilibria and Stability of Phage and Host

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Pei; Nadeem, Alina; Wahl, Lindi M.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we present a bacteriophage model that includes prophage, that is, phage genomes that are incorporated into the host cell genome. The general model is described by an 18-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations. This study focuses on asymptotic behaviour of the model, and thus the system is reduced to a simple six-dimensional model, involving uninfected host cells, infected host cells and phage. We use dynamical system theory to explore the dynamic behaviour of the model, studying in particular the impact of prophage on the equilibria and stability of phage and host. We employ bifurcation and stability theory, centre manifold and normal form theory to show that the system has multiple equilibrium solutions which undergo a series of bifurcations, finally leading to oscillating motions. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate and confirm the analytical predictions. The results of this study indicate that in some parameter regimes, the host cell population may drive the phage to extinction through diversification, that is, if multiple types of host emerge; this prediction holds even if the phage population is likewise diverse. This parameter regime is restricted, however, if infecting phage are able to recombine with prophage sequences in the host cell genome.

Phase-field simulations of thickness-dependent domain stability in PbTiO3 thin films

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, Guang; Hu, Jia-Mian; Zhang, Jinxian

Phase-field approach is used to predict the thickness effect on the domain stability in ferroelectric thin films. The strain relaxation mechanism and critical thickness for dislocation formation from both Matthews-Blakeslee (MB) and People-Bean (PB) models are employed. Thickness - strain domain stability diagrams are obtained for PbTiO3 thin films under different strain relaxation models. The relative domain fractions as a function of film thickness are also calculated and compared with experiment measurements in PbTiO3 thin films grown on SrTiO3 and KTaO3 substrates.

Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Podolak, Charles J.

2013-01-01

An ensemble of rule-based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large-scale influences on stability with several reduced-complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two-parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley-scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large-scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley-scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.

A Physiologically Based Model of Orexinergic Stabilization of Sleep and Wake

PubMed Central

Fulcher, Ben D.; Phillips, Andrew J. K.; Postnova, Svetlana; Robinson, Peter A.

2014-01-01

The orexinergic neurons of the lateral hypothalamus (Orx) are essential for regulating sleep-wake dynamics, and their loss causes narcolepsy, a disorder characterized by severe instability of sleep and wake states. However, the mechanisms through which Orx stabilize sleep and wake are not well understood. In this work, an explanation of the stabilizing effects of Orx is presented using a quantitative model of important physiological connections between Orx and the sleep-wake switch. In addition to Orx and the sleep-wake switch, which is composed of mutually inhibitory wake-active monoaminergic neurons in brainstem and hypothalamus (MA) and the sleep-active ventrolateral preoptic neurons of the hypothalamus (VLPO), the model also includes the circadian and homeostatic sleep drives. It is shown that Orx stabilizes prolonged waking episodes via its excitatory input to MA and by relaying a circadian input to MA, thus sustaining MA firing activity during the circadian day. During sleep, both Orx and MA are inhibited by the VLPO, and the subsequent reduction in Orx input to the MA indirectly stabilizes sustained sleep episodes. Simulating a loss of Orx, the model produces dynamics resembling narcolepsy, including frequent transitions between states, reduced waking arousal levels, and a normal daily amount of total sleep. The model predicts a change in sleep timing with differences in orexin levels, with higher orexin levels delaying the normal sleep episode, suggesting that individual differences in Orx signaling may contribute to chronotype. Dynamics resembling sleep inertia also emerge from the model as a gradual sleep-to-wake transition on a timescale that varies with that of Orx dynamics. The quantitative, physiologically based model developed in this work thus provides a new explanation of how Orx stabilizes prolonged episodes of sleep and wake, and makes a range of experimentally testable predictions, including a role for Orx in chronotype and sleep inertia. PMID:24651580

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qijie

2015-08-01

The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

Anharmonic and Quantum Fluctuations in Molecular Crystals: A First-Principles Study of the Stability of Paracetamol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Mariana; Gasparotto, Piero; Ceriotti, Michele

2016-09-01

Molecular crystals often exist in multiple competing polymorphs, showing significantly different physicochemical properties. Computational crystal structure prediction is key to interpret and guide the search for the most stable or useful form, a real challenge due to the combinatorial search space, and the complex interplay of subtle effects that work together to determine the relative stability of different structures. Here we take a comprehensive approach based on different flavors of thermodynamic integration in order to estimate all contributions to the free energies of these systems with density-functional theory, including the oft-neglected anharmonic contributions and nuclear quantum effects. We take the two main stable forms of paracetamol as a paradigmatic example. We find that anharmonic contributions, different descriptions of van der Waals interactions, and nuclear quantum effects all matter to quantitatively determine the stability of different phases. Our analysis highlights the many challenges inherent in the development of a quantitative and predictive framework to model molecular crystals. However, it also indicates which of the components of the free energy can benefit from a cancellation of errors that can redeem the predictive power of approximate models, and suggests simple steps that could be taken to improve the reliability of ab initio crystal structure prediction.

Analysis of edge stability for models of heat flux width

DOE PAGES

Makowski, Michael A.; Lasnier, Charles J.; Leonard, Anthony W.; ...

2017-05-12

Detailed measurements of the n e, and T e, and T i profiles in the vicinity of the separatrix of ELMing H-mode discharges have been used to examine plasma stability at the extreme edge of the plasma and assess stability dependent models of the heat flux width. The results are strongly contrary to the critical gradient model, which posits that a ballooning instability determines a gradient scale length related to the heat flux width. The results of this analysis are not sensitive to the choice of location to evaluate stability. Significantly, it is also found that the results are completelymore » consistent with the heuristic drift model for the heat flux width. Here the edge pressure gradient scales with plasma density and is proportional to the pressure gradient inferred from the equilibrium in accordance with the predictions of that theory.« less

Chapter 13: Tools for analysis

Treesearch

William Elliot; Kevin Hyde; Lee MacDonald; James McKean

2007-01-01

This chapter presents a synthesis of current computer modeling tools that are, or could be, adopted for use in evaluating the cumulative watershed effects of fuel management. The chapter focuses on runoff, soil erosion and slope stability predictive tools. Readers should refer to chapters on soil erosion and stability for more detailed information on the physical...

Actuator and aerodynamic modeling for high-angle-of-attack aeroservoelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

1993-01-01

Accurate prediction of airframe/actuation coupling is required by the imposing demands of modern flight control systems. In particular, for agility enhancement at high angle of attack and low dynamic pressure, structural integration characteristics such as hinge moments, effective actuator stiffness, and airframe/control surface damping can have a significant effect on stability predictions. Actuator responses are customarily represented with low-order transfer functions matched to actuator test data, and control surface stiffness is often modeled as a linear spring. The inclusion of the physical properties of actuation and its installation on the airframe is therefore addressed in this paper using detailed actuator models which consider the physical, electrical, and mechanical elements of actuation. The aeroservoelastic analysis procedure is described in which the actuators are modeled as detailed high-order transfer functions and as approximate low-order transfer functions. The impacts of unsteady aerodynamic modeling on aeroservoelastic stability are also investigated in this paper by varying the order of approximation, or number of aerodynamic lag states, in the analysis. Test data from a thrust-vectoring configuration of an F/A-18 aircraft are compared to predictions to determine the effects on accuracy as a function of modeling complexity.

Actuator and aerodynamic modeling for high-angle-of-attack aeroservoelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

1993-01-01

Accurate prediction of airframe/actuation coupling is required by the imposing demands of modern flight control systems. In particular, for agility enhancement at high angle of attack and low dynamic pressure, structural integration characteristics such as hinge moments, effective actuator stiffness, and airframe/control surface damping can have a significant effect on stability predictions. Actuator responses are customarily represented with low-order transfer functions matched to actuator test data, and control surface stiffness is often modeled as a linear spring. The inclusion of the physical properties of actuation and its installation on the airframe is therefore addressed using detailed actuator models which consider the physical, electrical, and mechanical elements of actuation. The aeroservoelastic analysis procedure is described in which the actuators are modeled as detailed high-order transfer functions and as approximate low-order transfer functions. The impacts of unsteady aerodynamic modeling on aeroservoelastic stability are also investigated by varying the order of approximation, or number of aerodynamic lag states, in the analysis. Test data from a thrust-vectoring configuration of an F/A-l8 aircraft are compared to predictions to determine the effects on accuracy as a function of modeling complexity.

Entropic (de)stabilization of surface-bound peptides conjugated with polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, Scott P.; Shell, M. Scott

2015-12-01

In many emerging biotechnologies, functional proteins must maintain their native structures on or near interfaces (e.g., tethered peptide arrays, protein coated nanoparticles, and amphiphilic peptide micelles). Because the presence of a surface is known to dramatically alter the thermostability of tethered proteins, strategies to stabilize surface-bound proteins are highly sought. Here, we show that polymer conjugation allows for significant control over the secondary structure and thermostability of a model surface-tethered peptide. We use molecular dynamics simulations to examine the folding behavior of a coarse-grained helical peptide that is conjugated to polymers of various lengths and at various conjugation sites. These polymer variations reveal surprisingly diverse behavior, with some stabilizing and some destabilizing the native helical fold. We show that ideal-chain polymer entropies explain these varied effects and can quantitatively predict shifts in folding temperature. We then develop a generic theoretical model, based on ideal-chain entropies, that predicts critical lengths for conjugated polymers to effect changes in the folding of a surface-bound protein. These results may inform new design strategies for the stabilization of surface-associated proteins important for a range technological applications.

Entropic (de)stabilization of surface-bound peptides conjugated with polymers.

PubMed

Carmichael, Scott P; Shell, M Scott

2015-12-28

In many emerging biotechnologies, functional proteins must maintain their native structures on or near interfaces (e.g., tethered peptide arrays, protein coated nanoparticles, and amphiphilic peptide micelles). Because the presence of a surface is known to dramatically alter the thermostability of tethered proteins, strategies to stabilize surface-bound proteins are highly sought. Here, we show that polymer conjugation allows for significant control over the secondary structure and thermostability of a model surface-tethered peptide. We use molecular dynamics simulations to examine the folding behavior of a coarse-grained helical peptide that is conjugated to polymers of various lengths and at various conjugation sites. These polymer variations reveal surprisingly diverse behavior, with some stabilizing and some destabilizing the native helical fold. We show that ideal-chain polymer entropies explain these varied effects and can quantitatively predict shifts in folding temperature. We then develop a generic theoretical model, based on ideal-chain entropies, that predicts critical lengths for conjugated polymers to effect changes in the folding of a surface-bound protein. These results may inform new design strategies for the stabilization of surface-associated proteins important for a range technological applications.

Evaluating a slope-stability model for shallow rain-induced landslides using gage and satellite data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yatheendradas, S.; Kirschbaum, D.; Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.

2014-01-01

Improving prediction of landslide early warning systems requires accurate estimation of the conditions that trigger slope failures. This study tested a slope-stability model for shallow rainfall-induced landslides by utilizing rainfall information from gauge and satellite records. We used the TRIGRS model (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis) for simulating the evolution of the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Using a spatial subset of a well-characterized digital landscape from an earlier study, we considered shallow failure on a slope adjoining an urban transportation roadway near the Seattle area in Washington, USA.We ran the TRIGRS model using high-quality rain gage and satellite-based rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results with parameterized soil depth values suggest that the steeper slope values in this spatial domain have factor of safety values that are extremely close to the failure limit within an extremely narrow range of values, providing multiple false alarms. When the soil depths were constrained using a back analysis procedure to ensure that slopes were stable under initial condtions, the model accurately predicted the timing and location of the landslide observation without false alarms over time for gage rain data. The TRMM satellite rainfall data did not show adequately retreived rainfall peak magnitudes and accumulation over the study period, and as a result failed to predict the landslide event. These preliminary results indicate that more accurate and higher-resolution rain data (e.g., the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission) are required to provide accurate and reliable landslide predictions in ungaged basins.

Validation of prediction models: examining temporal and geographic stability of baseline risk and estimated covariate effects

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; van Klaveren, David; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Nieboer, Daan; Lee, Douglas S.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2018-01-01

Background Stability in baseline risk and estimated predictor effects both geographically and temporally is a desirable property of clinical prediction models. However, this issue has received little attention in the methodological literature. Our objective was to examine methods for assessing temporal and geographic heterogeneity in baseline risk and predictor effects in prediction models. Methods We studied 14,857 patients hospitalized with heart failure at 90 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, in two time periods. We focussed on geographic and temporal variation in baseline risk (intercept) and predictor effects (regression coefficients) of the EFFECT-HF mortality model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients hospitalized for heart failure. We used random effects logistic regression models for the 14,857 patients. Results The baseline risk of mortality displayed moderate geographic variation, with the hospital-specific probability of 1-year mortality for a reference patient lying between 0.168 and 0.290 for 95% of hospitals. Furthermore, the odds of death were 11% lower in the second period than in the first period. However, we found minimal geographic or temporal variation in predictor effects. Among 11 tests of differences in time for predictor variables, only one had a modestly significant P value (0.03). Conclusions This study illustrates how temporal and geographic heterogeneity of prediction models can be assessed in settings with a large sample of patients from a large number of centers at different time periods. PMID:29350215

Improving the accuracy of protein stability predictions with multistate design using a variety of backbone ensembles.

PubMed

Davey, James A; Chica, Roberto A

2014-05-01

Multistate computational protein design (MSD) with backbone ensembles approximating conformational flexibility can predict higher quality sequences than single-state design with a single fixed backbone. However, it is currently unclear what characteristics of backbone ensembles are required for the accurate prediction of protein sequence stability. In this study, we aimed to improve the accuracy of protein stability predictions made with MSD by using a variety of backbone ensembles to recapitulate the experimentally measured stability of 85 Streptococcal protein G domain β1 sequences. Ensembles tested here include an NMR ensemble as well as those generated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, by Backrub motions, and by PertMin, a new method that we developed involving the perturbation of atomic coordinates followed by energy minimization. MSD with the PertMin ensembles resulted in the most accurate predictions by providing the highest number of stable sequences in the top 25, and by correctly binning sequences as stable or unstable with the highest success rate (≈90%) and the lowest number of false positives. The performance of PertMin ensembles is due to the fact that their members closely resemble the input crystal structure and have low potential energy. Conversely, the NMR ensemble as well as those generated by MD simulations at 500 or 1000 K reduced prediction accuracy due to their low structural similarity to the crystal structure. The ensembles tested herein thus represent on- or off-target models of the native protein fold and could be used in future studies to design for desired properties other than stability. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Electrostatic effects on the folding stability of FKBP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batra, Jyotica; Zhou, Huan-Xiang

2006-11-01

Charged residues play important roles in the folding of proteins and their interactions with biological targets. We have developed computational models for predicting electrostatic contributions to protein folding and binding stability. To rigorously test and further refine these models, we carried out experimental studies on the effects of charge mutations on the folding stability of FKBP. Two close homologues of FKBP, FKBP12 and FKBP12.6, differ in 18 of 107 positions, and 8 of which involve substitutions of charged residues. These 8 substitutions were introduced on FKBP12 and their effects on the folding stability were measured. The changes in unfolding free energy varied from -0.34 to 0.65 kcal/mol. A double and a triple mutation were introduced to accumulate the stabilization effect of individual substitutions, resulting an increase in stability of about 0.84 kcal/mol. On the other hand, neutralizing one or both partners of a conserved salt bridge reduced the stability by as much as 0.64 kcal/mol. These results suggest that charged residues can modulate the folding stability significantly. To further exploit stabilization effects of charged residues, experiments are now underway to introduce charge mutations that are modeled after a thermophilic FKBP.

Applying the methodology of Design of Experiments to stability studies: a Partial Least Squares approach for evaluation of drug stability.

PubMed

Jordan, Nika; Zakrajšek, Jure; Bohanec, Simona; Roškar, Robert; Grabnar, Iztok

2018-05-01

The aim of the present research is to show that the methodology of Design of Experiments can be applied to stability data evaluation, as they can be seen as multi-factor and multi-level experimental designs. Linear regression analysis is usually an approach for analyzing stability data, but multivariate statistical methods could also be used to assess drug stability during the development phase. Data from a stability study for a pharmaceutical product with hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) as an unstable drug substance was used as a case example in this paper. The design space of the stability study was modeled using Umetrics MODDE 10.1 software. We showed that a Partial Least Squares model could be used for a multi-dimensional presentation of all data generated in a stability study and for determination of the relationship among factors that influence drug stability. It might also be used for stability predictions and potentially for the optimization of the extent of stability testing needed to determine shelf life and storage conditions, which would be time and cost-effective for the pharmaceutical industry.

Mapping Nuclear Fallout Using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

relevant modules, originally designed to predict the settling of volcanic ash, such that a stabilized cloud of nuclear particulate is initialized...within the model. This modified code is then executed for various atmospheric test explosions and the results are qualitatively and quantitatively...HYSPLIT Simulation ....................................... 44  Figure 7. WRF Fallout Prediction for Test Shot George, 0.8 R/h at H+1

Vehicle lift-off modelling and a new rollover detection criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashadi, Behrooz; Mostaghimi, Hamid

2017-05-01

The modelling and development of a general criterion for the prediction of rollover threshold is the main purpose of this work. Vehicle dynamics models after the wheels lift-off and when the vehicle moves on the two wheels are derived and the governing equations are used to develop the rollover threshold. These models include the properties of the suspension and steering systems. In order to study the stability of motion, the steady-state solutions of the equations of motion are carried out. Based on the stability analyses, a new relation is obtained for the rollover threshold in terms of measurable response parameters. The presented criterion predicts the best time for the prevention of the vehicle rollover by applying a correcting moment. It is shown that the introduced threshold of vehicle rollover is a proper state of vehicle motion that is best for stabilising the vehicle with a low energy requirement.

Parametric studies with an atmospheric diffusion model that assesses toxic fuel hazards due to the ground clouds generated by rocket launches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, R. B.; Grose, W. L.

1975-01-01

Parametric studies were made with a multilayer atmospheric diffusion model to place quantitative limits on the uncertainty of predicting ground-level toxic rocket-fuel concentrations. Exhaust distributions in the ground cloud, cloud stabilized geometry, atmospheric coefficients, the effects of exhaust plume afterburning of carbon monoxide CO, assumed surface mixing-layer division in the model, and model sensitivity to different meteorological regimes were studied. Large-scale differences in ground-level predictions are quantitatively described. Cloud alongwind growth for several meteorological conditions is shown to be in error because of incorrect application of previous diffusion theory. In addition, rocket-plume calculations indicate that almost all of the rocket-motor carbon monoxide is afterburned to carbon dioxide CO2, thus reducing toxic hazards due to CO. The afterburning is also shown to have a significant effect on cloud stabilization height and on ground-level concentrations of exhaust products.

Prediction of wastewater treatment plants performance based on artificial fish school neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ruicheng; Li, Chong

2011-10-01

A reliable model for wastewater treatment plant is essential in providing a tool for predicting its performance and to form a basis for controlling the operation of the process. This would minimize the operation costs and assess the stability of environmental balance. For the multi-variable, uncertainty, non-linear characteristics of the wastewater treatment system, an artificial fish school neural network prediction model is established standing on actual operation data in the wastewater treatment system. The model overcomes several disadvantages of the conventional BP neural network. The results of model calculation show that the predicted value can better match measured value, played an effect on simulating and predicting and be able to optimize the operation status. The establishment of the predicting model provides a simple and practical way for the operation and management in wastewater treatment plant, and has good research and engineering practical value.

Bootstrap investigation of the stability of a Cox regression model.

PubMed

Altman, D G; Andersen, P K

1989-07-01

We describe a bootstrap investigation of the stability of a Cox proportional hazards regression model resulting from the analysis of a clinical trial of azathioprine versus placebo in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. We have considered stability to refer both to the choice of variables included in the model and, more importantly, to the predictive ability of the model. In stepwise Cox regression analyses of 100 bootstrap samples using 17 candidate variables, the most frequently selected variables were those selected in the original analysis, and no other important variable was identified. Thus there was no reason to doubt the model obtained in the original analysis. For each patient in the trial, bootstrap confidence intervals were constructed for the estimated probability of surviving two years. It is shown graphically that these intervals are markedly wider than those obtained from the original model.

Modeling the formation of iron sulfide scales using thermodynamic simulation software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderko, A.; Shuler, P.J.

1998-12-31

A program has been developed for generating stability diagrams that concisely represent the thermodynamic state of multicomponent, multiphase aqueous systems in wide ranges of temperature and component concentrations. The diagrams are based on a thermodynamic model that combines the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state for standard-state properties with a solutions nonideality model based on the activity coefficient expressions developed by Bromley and Pitzer. The diagrams offer a flexible choice of independent variables, which include component concentrations in addition to the potential and pH. The stability diagrams are used to predict the conditions that favor the formation of stable and metastable ironmore » sulfide species, which are commonly deposited under oil field-related conditions. First, the diagrams have been applied to establish a sequence of transformations that iron sulfides undergo as they age. The predicted transformation sequences take into account environmental variables (e.g., hydrogen sulfide concentration, oxygen availability, etc.). The predictions are in agreement with experimental data on iron sulfide formation at the iron/solution interface and in bulk solution. The understanding of iron sulfide transformation sequences makes it possible to simulate experimental studies of H{sub 2}S/CO{sub 2} corrosion in the presence or absence of oxygen. A comparison with laboratory corrosion rate data under gas pipeline conditions indicates that the magnitude of corrosion rates can be correlated with the predicted stability of metastable iron sulfide phases.« less

StaRProtein, A Web Server for Prediction of the Stability of Repeat Proteins

PubMed Central

Xu, Yongtao; Zhou, Xu; Huang, Meilan

2015-01-01

Repeat proteins have become increasingly important due to their capability to bind to almost any proteins and the potential as alternative therapy to monoclonal antibodies. In the past decade repeat proteins have been designed to mediate specific protein-protein interactions. The tetratricopeptide and ankyrin repeat proteins are two classes of helical repeat proteins that form different binding pockets to accommodate various partners. It is important to understand the factors that define folding and stability of repeat proteins in order to prioritize the most stable designed repeat proteins to further explore their potential binding affinities. Here we developed distance-dependant statistical potentials using two classes of alpha-helical repeat proteins, tetratricopeptide and ankyrin repeat proteins respectively, and evaluated their efficiency in predicting the stability of repeat proteins. We demonstrated that the repeat-specific statistical potentials based on these two classes of repeat proteins showed paramount accuracy compared with non-specific statistical potentials in: 1) discriminate correct vs. incorrect models 2) rank the stability of designed repeat proteins. In particular, the statistical scores correlate closely with the equilibrium unfolding free energies of repeat proteins and therefore would serve as a novel tool in quickly prioritizing the designed repeat proteins with high stability. StaRProtein web server was developed for predicting the stability of repeat proteins. PMID:25807112

On the Applicability of DLVO Theory to the Prediction of Clay Colloids Stability.

PubMed

Missana; Adell

2000-10-01

The stability behavior of Na-montmorillonite colloids has been studied by combining the analysis of their surface charge properties and time-resolved dynamic light scattering experiments. The chemical surface model for several types of clays, including montmorillonite, has to take into account the double surface charge contribution due to their permanent structural charge and to their pH-dependent charge, which is developed at the edge sites, therefore, these stability studies were carried out as a function of both ionic strength and pH. DLVO theory is largely applied for the prediction of the stability of many colloidal systems, including the natural ones. This work shows that the stability behavior of Na-montmorillonite colloids cannot be satisfactorily reproduced by DLVO theory, using the surface parameters experimentally obtained. Particularly, this theory is unable to explain their pH-dependent stability behavior caused by the small charge at the edge sites. Based on these results, a literature review of DLVO stability prediction of clay colloids was performed. It confirmed that this theory is not capable of taking into account the double contribution to the total surface charge and, at the same time, pointed out the main uncertainties related to the appropriate use of the input parameters for the calculation as, for example, the Hamaker constant or the surface potential. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Deep learning architecture for air quality predictions.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Hu, Yuan; Shao, Jing; Chi, Tianhe

2016-11-01

With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, many developing countries are suffering from heavy air pollution. Governments and citizens have expressed increasing concern regarding air pollution because it affects human health and sustainable development worldwide. Current air quality prediction methods mainly use shallow models; however, these methods produce unsatisfactory results, which inspired us to investigate methods of predicting air quality based on deep architecture models. In this paper, a novel spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL)-based air quality prediction method that inherently considers spatial and temporal correlations is proposed. A stacked autoencoder (SAE) model is used to extract inherent air quality features, and it is trained in a greedy layer-wise manner. Compared with traditional time series prediction models, our model can predict the air quality of all stations simultaneously and shows the temporal stability in all seasons. Moreover, a comparison with the spatiotemporal artificial neural network (STANN), auto regression moving average (ARMA), and support vector regression (SVR) models demonstrates that the proposed method of performing air quality predictions has a superior performance.

Chlorine truck attack consequences and mitigation.

PubMed

Barrett, Anthony Michael; Adams, Peter J

2011-08-01

We develop and apply an integrated modeling system to estimate fatalities from intentional release of 17 tons of chlorine from a tank truck in a generic urban area. A public response model specifies locations and actions of the populace. A chemical source term model predicts initial characteristics of the chlorine vapor and aerosol cloud. An atmospheric dispersion model predicts cloud spreading and movement. A building air exchange model simulates movement of chlorine from outdoors into buildings at each location. A dose-response model translates chlorine exposures into predicted fatalities. Important parameters outside defender control include wind speed, atmospheric stability class, amount of chlorine released, and dose-response model parameters. Without fast and effective defense response, with 2.5 m/sec wind and stability class F, we estimate approximately 4,000 (half within ∼10 minutes) to 30,000 fatalities (half within ∼20 minutes), depending on dose-response model. Although we assume 7% of the population was outdoors, they represent 60-90% of fatalities. Changing weather conditions result in approximately 50-90% lower total fatalities. Measures such as sheltering in place, evacuation, and use of security barriers and cryogenic storage can reduce fatalities, sometimes by 50% or more, depending on response speed and other factors. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling Physical Stability of Amorphous Solids Based on Temperature and Moisture Stresses.

PubMed

Zhu, Donghua Alan; Zografi, George; Gao, Ping; Gong, Yuchuan; Zhang, Geoff G Z

2016-09-01

Isothermal microcalorimetry was utilized to monitor the crystallization process of amorphous ritonavir (RTV) and its hydroxypropylmethylcellulose acetate succinate-based amorphous solid dispersion under various stressed conditions. An empirical model was developed: ln(τ)=ln(A)+EaRT-b⋅wc, where τ is the crystallization induction period, A is a pre-exponential factor, Ea is the apparent activation energy, b is the moisture sensitivity parameter, and wc is water content. To minimize the propagation of errors associated with the estimates, a nonlinear approach was used to calculate mean estimates and confidence intervals. The physical stability of neat amorphous RTV and RTV in hydroxypropylmethylcellulose acetate succinate solid dispersions was found to be mainly governed by the nucleation kinetic process. The impact of polymers and moisture on the crystallization process can be quantitatively described by Ea and b in this Arrhenius-type model. The good agreement between the measured values under some less stressful test conditions and those predicted, reflected by the slope and R(2) of the correlation plot of these 2 sets of data on a natural logarithm scale, indicates its predictability of long-term physical stability of amorphous RTV in solid dispersions. To further improve the model, more understanding of the impact of temperature and moisture on the amorphous physical stability and fundamentals regarding nucleation and crystallization is needed. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Propagation in Hypersonic Vehicle Aerothermoelastic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamorte, Nicolas Etienne

Hypersonic vehicles face a challenging flight environment. The aerothermoelastic analysis of its components requires numerous simplifying approximations. Identifying and quantifying the effect of uncertainties pushes the limits of the existing deterministic models, and is pursued in this work. An uncertainty quantification framework is used to propagate the effects of identified uncertainties on the stability margins and performance of the different systems considered. First, the aeroelastic stability of a typical section representative of a control surface on a hypersonic vehicle is examined. Variability in the uncoupled natural frequencies of the system is modeled to mimic the effect of aerodynamic heating. Next, the stability of an aerodynamically heated panel representing a component of the skin of a generic hypersonic vehicle is considered. Uncertainty in the location of transition from laminar to turbulent flow and the heat flux prediction is quantified using CFD. In both cases significant reductions of the stability margins are observed. A loosely coupled airframe--integrated scramjet engine is considered next. The elongated body and cowl of the engine flow path are subject to harsh aerothermodynamic loading which causes it to deform. Uncertainty associated with deformation prediction is propagated to the engine performance analysis. The cowl deformation is the main contributor to the sensitivity of the propulsion system performance. Finally, a framework for aerothermoelastic stability boundary calculation for hypersonic vehicles using CFD is developed. The usage of CFD enables one to consider different turbulence conditions, laminar or turbulent, and different models of the air mixture, in particular real gas model which accounts for dissociation of molecules at high temperature. The system is found to be sensitive to turbulence modeling as well as the location of the transition from laminar to turbulent flow. Real gas effects play a minor role in the flight conditions considered. These studies demonstrate the advantages of accounting for uncertainty at an early stage of the analysis. They emphasize the important relation between heat flux modeling, thermal stresses and stability margins of hypersonic vehicles.

Stability of the mode-locking regime in tapered quantum-dot lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardella, P.; Drzewietzki, L.; Rossetti, M.; Weber, C.; Breuer, S.

2018-02-01

We study numerically and experimentally the role of the injection current and reverse bias voltage on the pulse stability of tapered, passively mode-locked, Quantum Dot (QD) lasers. By using a multi-section delayed differential equation and introducing in the model the QD inhomogenous broadening, we are able to predict the onset of leading and trailing edge instabilities in the emitted pulse trains and to identify specific trends of stability in dependence on the laser biasing conditions. The numerical results are confirmed experimentally trough amplitude and timing stability analysis of the pulses.

Longitudinal stability of cognitive ability from infancy to early childhood: genetic and environmental etiologies.

PubMed

LaBuda, M C; DeFries, J C; Plomin, R; Fulker, D W

1986-10-01

A path model of genetic and shared family environmental transmission was fitted to general cognitive ability data from 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-year-old adopted and nonadopted children and their parents in order to assess the etiology of longitudinal stability from infancy to early childhood. Stability across years is moderate and is due mainly to influences not predicted by parental IQ. Results of the present study, in conjunction with those of previous twin studies, suggest substantial genetic stability from infancy and early childhood to adulthood.

Improved model predictive control of resistive wall modes by error field estimator in EXTRAP T2R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiadi, A. C.; Brunsell, P. R.; Frassinetti, L.

2016-12-01

Many implementations of a model-based approach for toroidal plasma have shown better control performance compared to the conventional type of feedback controller. One prerequisite of model-based control is the availability of a control oriented model. This model can be obtained empirically through a systematic procedure called system identification. Such a model is used in this work to design a model predictive controller to stabilize multiple resistive wall modes in EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch. Model predictive control is an advanced control method that can optimize the future behaviour of a system. Furthermore, this paper will discuss an additional use of the empirical model which is to estimate the error field in EXTRAP T2R. Two potential methods are discussed that can estimate the error field. The error field estimator is then combined with the model predictive control and yields better radial magnetic field suppression.

Correlation of analytical and experimental hot structure vibration results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kehoe, Michael W.; Deaton, Vivian C.

1993-01-01

High surface temperatures and temperature gradients can affect the vibratory characteristics and stability of aircraft structures. Aircraft designers are relying more on finite-element model analysis methods to ensure sufficient vehicle structural dynamic stability throughout the desired flight envelope. Analysis codes that predict these thermal effects must be correlated and verified with experimental data. Experimental modal data for aluminum, titanium, and fiberglass plates heated at uniform, nonuniform, and transient heating conditions are presented. The data show the effect of heat on each plate's modal characteristics, a comparison of predicted and measured plate vibration frequencies, the measured modal damping, and the effect of modeling material property changes and thermal stresses on the accuracy of the analytical results at nonuniform and transient heating conditions.

Predicting safe sex: Assessment of autoregressive and cross-lagged effects within the Theory of Planned Behavior.

PubMed

Eggers, Sander M; Taylor, Myra; Sathiparsad, Reshma; Bos, Arjan Er; de Vries, Hein

2015-11-01

Despite its popularity, few studies have assessed the temporal stability and cross-lagged effects of the Theory of Planned Behavior factors: Attitude, subjective norms and self-efficacy. For this study, 298 adolescent learners from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, filled out a Theory of Planned Behavior questionnaire on teenage pregnancy at baseline and after 6 months. Structural equation modeling showed that there were considerable cross-lagged effects between attitude and subjective norms. Temporal stability was moderate with test-retest correlations ranging from 0.37 to 0.51 and the model was able to predict intentions to have safe sex (R2 = 0.69) Implications for practice and future research are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Structural and electronic properties for atomic clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yan

We have studied the structural and electronic properties for different groups of atomic clusters by doing a global search on the potential energy surface using the Taboo Search in Descriptors Space (TSDS) method and calculating the energies with Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (KS-DFT). Our goal was to find the structural and electronic principles for predicting the structure and stability of clusters. For Ben (n = 3--20), we have found that the evolution of geometric and electronic properties with size reflects a change in the nature of the bonding from van der Waals to metallic and then bulk-like. The cluster sizes with extra stability agree well with the predictions of the jellium model. In the 4d series of transition metal (TM) clusters, as the d-type bonding becomes more important, the preferred geometric structure changes from icosahedral (Y, Zr), to distorted compact structures (Nb, Mo), and FCC or simple cubic crystal fragments (Tc, Ru, Rh) due to the localized nature of the d-type orbital. Analysis of relative isomer energies and their electronic density of states suggest that these clusters tend to follow a maximum hardness principle (MHP). For A4B12 clusters (A is divalent, B is monovalent), we found unusually large (on average 1.95 eV) HOMO-LUMO gap values. This shows the extra stability at an electronic closed shell (20 electrons) predicted by the jellium model. The importance of symmetry, closed electronic and ionic shells in stability is shown by the relative stability of homotops of Mg4Ag12 which also provides support for the hypothesis that clusters that satisfy more than one stability criterion ("double magic") should be particularly stable.

The phenotypic equilibrium of cancer cells: From average-level stability to path-wise convergence.

PubMed

Niu, Yuanling; Wang, Yue; Zhou, Da

2015-12-07

The phenotypic equilibrium, i.e. heterogeneous population of cancer cells tending to a fixed equilibrium of phenotypic proportions, has received much attention in cancer biology very recently. In the previous literature, some theoretical models were used to predict the experimental phenomena of the phenotypic equilibrium, which were often explained by different concepts of stabilities of the models. Here we present a stochastic multi-phenotype branching model by integrating conventional cellular hierarchy with phenotypic plasticity mechanisms of cancer cells. Based on our model, it is shown that: (i) our model can serve as a framework to unify the previous models for the phenotypic equilibrium, and then harmonizes the different kinds of average-level stabilities proposed in these models; and (ii) path-wise convergence of our model provides a deeper understanding to the phenotypic equilibrium from stochastic point of view. That is, the emergence of the phenotypic equilibrium is rooted in the stochastic nature of (almost) every sample path, the average-level stability just follows from it by averaging stochastic samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stabilizing l1-norm prediction models by supervised feature grouping.

PubMed

Kamkar, Iman; Gupta, Sunil Kumar; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha

2016-02-01

Emerging Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) have reformed the modern healthcare. These records have great potential to be used for building clinical prediction models. However, a problem in using them is their high dimensionality. Since a lot of information may not be relevant for prediction, the underlying complexity of the prediction models may not be high. A popular way to deal with this problem is to employ feature selection. Lasso and l1-norm based feature selection methods have shown promising results. But, in presence of correlated features, these methods select features that change considerably with small changes in data. This prevents clinicians to obtain a stable feature set, which is crucial for clinical decision making. Grouping correlated variables together can improve the stability of feature selection, however, such grouping is usually not known and needs to be estimated for optimal performance. Addressing this problem, we propose a new model that can simultaneously learn the grouping of correlated features and perform stable feature selection. We formulate the model as a constrained optimization problem and provide an efficient solution with guaranteed convergence. Our experiments with both synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed model is significantly more stable than Lasso and many existing state-of-the-art shrinkage and classification methods. We further show that in terms of prediction performance, the proposed method consistently outperforms Lasso and other baselines. Our model can be used for selecting stable risk factors for a variety of healthcare problems, so it can assist clinicians toward accurate decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the experimental prediction of the stability threshold speed caused by rotating damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vervisch, B.; Derammelaere, S.; Stockman, K.; De Baets, P.; Loccufier, M.

2016-08-01

An ever increasing demand for lighter rotating machinery and higher operating speeds results in a raised probability of instabilities. Rotating damping is one of the reasons, instability occurs. Rotating damping, or rotor internal damping, is the damping related to all rotating parts while non-rotating damping appearing in the non-rotating parts. The present study describes a rotating setup, designed to investigate rotating damping experimentally. An efficient experimental procedure is presented to predict the stability threshold of a rotating machine. The setup consists of a long thin shaft with a disk in the middle and clamped boundary conditions. The goal is to extract the system poles as a function of the rotating speed. The real parts of these poles are used to construct the decay rate plot, which is an indication for the stability. The efficiency of the experimental procedure relies on the model chosen for the rotating shaft. It is shown that the shaft behavior can be approximated by a single degree of freedom model that incorporates a speed dependent damping. As such low measurement effort and only one randomly chosen measurement location are needed to construct the decay rate plot. As an excitation, an automated impact hammer is used and the response is measured by eddy current probes. The proposed method yields a reliable prediction of the stability threshold speed which is validated through measurements.

Thermal Stability of Nanocrystalline Alloys by Solute Additions and A Thermodynamic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saber, Mostafa

Nanocrystalline alloys show superior properties due to their exceptional microstructure. Thermal stability of these materials is a critical aspect. It is well known that grain boundaries in nanocrystalline microstructures cause a significant increase in the total free energy of the system. A driving force provided to reduce this excess free energy can cause grain growth. The presence of a solute addition within a nanocrystalline alloy can lead to the thermal stability. Kinetic and thermodynamic stabilization are the two basic mechanisms with which stability of a nanoscale grain size can be achieved at high temperatures. The basis of this thesis is to study the effect of solute addition on thermal stability of nanocrystalline alloys. The objective is to determine the effect of Zr addition on the thermal stability of mechanically alloyed nanocrysatillne Fe-Cr and Fe-Ni alloys. In Fe-Cr-Zr alloy system, nanoscale grain size stabilization was maintained up to 900 °C by adding 2 at% Zr. Kinetic pinning by intermetallic particles in the nanoscale range was identified as a primary mechanism of thermal stabilization. In addition to the grain size strengthening, intermetallic particles also contribute to strengthening mechanisms. The analysis of microhardness, XRD data, and measured grain sizes from TEM micrographs suggested that both thermodynamic and kinetic mechanisms are possible mechanisms. It was found that alpha → gamma phase transformation in Fe-Cr-Zr system does not influence the grain size stabilization. In the Fe-Ni-Zr alloy system, it was shown that the grain growth in Fe-8Ni-1Zr alloy is much less than that of pure Fe and Fe-8Ni alloy at elevated temperatures. The microstructure of the ternary Fe-8Ni-1Zr alloy remains in the nanoscale range up to 700 °C. Using an in-situ TEM study, it was determined that drastic grain growth occurs when the alpha → gamma phase transformation occurs. Accordingly, there can be a synergistic relationship between grain growth and alpha → gamma phase transformation in Fe-Ni-Zr alloys. In addition to the experimental study of thermal stabilization of nanocrystalline Fe-Cr-Zr or Fe-Ni-Zr alloys, the thesis presented here developed a new predictive model, applicable to strongly segregating solutes, for thermodynamic stabilization of binary alloys. This model can serve as a benchmark for selecting solute and evaluating the possible contribution of stabilization. Following a regular solution model, both the chemical and elastic strain energy contributions are combined to obtain the mixing enthalpy. The total Gibbs free energy of mixing is then minimized with respect to simultaneous variations in the grain boundary volume fraction and the solute concentration in the grain boundary and the grain interior. The Lagrange multiplier method was used to obtained numerical solutions. Application are given for the temperature dependence of the grain size and the grain boundary solute excess for selected binary system where experimental results imply that thermodynamic stabilization could be operative. This thesis also extends the binary model to a new model for thermodynamic stabilization of ternary nanocrystalline alloys. It is applicable to strongly segregating size-misfit solutes and uses input data available in the literature. In a same manner as the binary model, this model is based on a regular solution approach such that the chemical and elastic strain energy contributions are incorporated into the mixing enthalpy DeltaHmix, and the mixing entropy DeltaSmix is obtained using the ideal solution approximation. The Gibbs mixing free energy Delta Gmix is then minimized with respect to simultaneous variations in grain growth and solute segregation parameters. The Lagrange multiplier method is similarly used to obtain numerical solutions for the minimum Delta Gmix. The temperature dependence of the nanocrystalline grain size and interfacial solute excess can be obtained for selected ternary systems. As an example, model predictions are compared to experimental results for Fe-Cr-Zr and Fe-Ni-Zr alloy systems. Consistency between the experimental results and the present model predictions provide a more rigorous criterion for investigating thermal stabilization. However, other possible contributions for grain growth stabilization should still be considered.

Effect of the relative shift between the electron density and temperature pedestal position on the pedestal stability in JET-ILW and comparison with JET-C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanikova, E.; Frassinetti, L.; Saarelma, S.; Loarte, A.; Nunes, I.; Garzotti, L.; Lomas, P.; Rimini, F.; Drewelow, P.; Kruezi, U.; Lomanowski, B.; de la Luna, E.; Meneses, L.; Peterka, M.; Viola, B.; Giroud, C.; Maggi, C.; contributors, JET

2018-05-01

The electron temperature and density pedestals tend to vary in their relative radial positions, as observed in DIII-D (Beurskens et al 2011 Phys. Plasmas 18 056120) and ASDEX Upgrade (Dunne et al 2017 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 59 14017). This so-called relative shift has an impact on the pedestal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and hence on the pedestal height (Osborne et al 2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 063018). The present work studies the effect of the relative shift on pedestal stability of JET ITER-like wall (JET-ILW) baseline low triangularity (δ) unseeded plasmas, and similar JET-C discharges. As shown in this paper, the increase of the pedestal relative shift is correlated with the reduction of the normalized pressure gradient, therefore playing a strong role in pedestal stability. Furthermore, JET-ILW tends to have a larger relative shift compared to JET carbon wall (JET-C), suggesting a possible role of the plasma facing materials in affecting the density profile location. Experimental results are then compared with stability analysis performed in terms of the peeling-ballooning model and with pedestal predictive model EUROPED (Saarelma et al 2017 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion). Stability analysis is consistent with the experimental findings, showing an improvement of the pedestal stability, when the relative shift is reduced. This has been ascribed mainly to the increase of the edge bootstrap current, and to minor effects related to the increase of the pedestal pressure gradient and narrowing of the pedestal pressure width. Pedestal predictive model EUROPED shows a qualitative agreement with experiment, especially for low values of the relative shift.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

EPA Science Inventory

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

Learning Latent Variable and Predictive Models of Dynamical Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

stable over the full 1000 frame image sequence without significant damping. C. Sam- ples drawn from a least squares synthesized sequences (top), and...LDS stabilizing algorithms, LB-1 and LB-2. Bars at every 20 timesteps denote variance in the results. CG provides the best stable short term predictions...observations. This thesis contributes (1) novel learning algorithms for existing dynamical system models that overcome significant limitations of previous

Feature Selection Methods for Zero-Shot Learning of Neural Activity.

PubMed

Caceres, Carlos A; Roos, Matthew J; Rupp, Kyle M; Milsap, Griffin; Crone, Nathan E; Wolmetz, Michael E; Ratto, Christopher R

2017-01-01

Dimensionality poses a serious challenge when making predictions from human neuroimaging data. Across imaging modalities, large pools of potential neural features (e.g., responses from particular voxels, electrodes, and temporal windows) have to be related to typically limited sets of stimuli and samples. In recent years, zero-shot prediction models have been introduced for mapping between neural signals and semantic attributes, which allows for classification of stimulus classes not explicitly included in the training set. While choices about feature selection can have a substantial impact when closed-set accuracy, open-set robustness, and runtime are competing design objectives, no systematic study of feature selection for these models has been reported. Instead, a relatively straightforward feature stability approach has been adopted and successfully applied across models and imaging modalities. To characterize the tradeoffs in feature selection for zero-shot learning, we compared correlation-based stability to several other feature selection techniques on comparable data sets from two distinct imaging modalities: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Electrocorticography. While most of the feature selection methods resulted in similar zero-shot prediction accuracies and spatial/spectral patterns of selected features, there was one exception; A novel feature/attribute correlation approach was able to achieve those accuracies with far fewer features, suggesting the potential for simpler prediction models that yield high zero-shot classification accuracy.

Evolutionary Dynamics on Protein Bi-stability Landscapes can Potentially Resolve Adaptive Conflicts

PubMed Central

Sikosek, Tobias; Bornberg-Bauer, Erich; Chan, Hue Sun

2012-01-01

Experimental studies have shown that some proteins exist in two alternative native-state conformations. It has been proposed that such bi-stable proteins can potentially function as evolutionary bridges at the interface between two neutral networks of protein sequences that fold uniquely into the two different native conformations. Under adaptive conflict scenarios, bi-stable proteins may be of particular advantage if they simultaneously provide two beneficial biological functions. However, computational models that simulate protein structure evolution do not yet recognize the importance of bi-stability. Here we use a biophysical model to analyze sequence space to identify bi-stable or multi-stable proteins with two or more equally stable native-state structures. The inclusion of such proteins enhances phenotype connectivity between neutral networks in sequence space. Consideration of the sequence space neighborhood of bridge proteins revealed that bi-stability decreases gradually with each mutation that takes the sequence further away from an exactly bi-stable protein. With relaxed selection pressures, we found that bi-stable proteins in our model are highly successful under simulated adaptive conflict. Inspired by these model predictions, we developed a method to identify real proteins in the PDB with bridge-like properties, and have verified a clear bi-stability gradient for a series of mutants studied by Alexander et al. (Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 2009, 106:21149–21154) that connect two sequences that fold uniquely into two different native structures via a bridge-like intermediate mutant sequence. Based on these findings, new testable predictions for future studies on protein bi-stability and evolution are discussed. PMID:23028272

The stabilities and electron structures of Al-Mg clusters with 18 and 20 valence electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Huihui; Chen, Hongshan

2017-07-01

The spherical jellium model predicts that metal clusters having 18 and 20 valence electrons correspond to the magic numbers and will show specific stabilities. We explore in detail the geometric structures, stabilities and electronic structures of Al-Mg clusters containing 18 and 20 valence electrons by using genetic algorithm combined with density functional theories. The stabilities of the clusters are governed by the electronic configurations and Mg/Al ratios. The clusters with lower Mg/Al ratios are more stable. The molecular orbitals accord with the shell structures predicted by the jellium model but the 2S level interweaves with the 1D levels and the 2S and 1D orbitals form a subgroup. The clusters having 20 valence electrons form closed 1S21P61D102S2 shells and show enhanced stability. The Al-Mg clusters with a valence electron count of 18 do not form closed shells because one 1D orbital is unoccupied. The ionization potential and electron affinity are closely related to the electronic configurations; their values are determined by the subgroups the HOMO or LUMO belong to. Supplementary material in the form of one pdf file available from the Journal web page at http://https://doi.org/10.1140/epjd/e2017-80042-9

Stability Analysis of the Slowed-Rotor Compound Helicopter Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne; Floros, Matthew W.

2004-01-01

The stability and control of rotors at high advance ratio are considered. Teetering, articulated, gimbaled, and rigid hub types are considered for a compound helicopter (rotor and fixed wing). Stability predictions obtained using an analytical rigid flapping blade analysis, a rigid blade CAMRAD II model, and an elastic blade CAMRAD II model are compared. For the flapping blade analysis, the teetering rotor is the most stable, 5howing no instabilities up to an advance ratio of 3 and a Lock number of 18. With an elastic blade model, the teetering rotor is unstable at an advance ratio of 1.5. Analysis of the trim controls and blade flapping shows that for small positive collective pitch, trim can be maintained without excessive control input or flapping angles.

An experimental and analytical investigation of stall effects on flap-lag stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagabhushanam, J.; Gaonkar, Gopal H.; Mcnulty, Michael J.

1987-01-01

Experiments have been performed with a 1.62 m diameter hingeless rotor in a wind tunnel to investigate flap-lag stability of isolated rotors in forward flight. The three-bladed rotor model closely approaches the simple theoretical concept of a hingeless rotor as a set of rigid, articulated flap-lag blades with offset and spring restrained flap and lag hinges. Lag regressing mode stability data was obtained for advance ratios as high as 0.55 for various combinations of collective pitch and shaft angle. The prediction includes quasi-steady stall effects on rotor trim and Floquet stability analyses. Correlation between data and prediction is presented and is compared with that of an earlier study based on a linear theory without stall effects. While the results with stall effects show marked differences from the linear theory results, the stall theory still falls short of adequate agreement with the experimental data.

Predicting stability of alpha-helical, orthogonal-bundle proteins on surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Shuai; Knotts, Thomas A.

2010-09-01

The interaction of proteins with surfaces is a key phenomenon in many applications, but current understanding of the biophysics involved is lacking. At present, rational design of such emerging technologies is difficult as no methods or theories exist that correctly predict how surfaces influence protein behavior. Using molecular simulation and a coarse-grain model, this study illustrates for the first time that stability of proteins on surfaces can be correlated with tertiary structural elements for alpha-helical, orthogonal-bundle proteins. Results show that several factors contribute to stability on surfaces including the nature of the loop region where the tether is placed and the ability of the protein to freely rotate on the surface. A thermodynamic analysis demonstrates that surfaces stabilize proteins entropically and that any destabilization is an enthalpic effect. Moreover, the entropic effects are concentrated on the unfolded state of the protein while the ethalpic effects are focused on the folded state.

A Two-Time Scale Decentralized Model Predictive Controller Based on Input and Output Model

PubMed Central

Niu, Jian; Zhao, Jun; Xu, Zuhua; Qian, Jixin

2009-01-01

A decentralized model predictive controller applicable for some systems which exhibit different dynamic characteristics in different channels was presented in this paper. These systems can be regarded as combinations of a fast model and a slow model, the response speeds of which are in two-time scale. Because most practical models used for control are obtained in the form of transfer function matrix by plant tests, a singular perturbation method was firstly used to separate the original transfer function matrix into two models in two-time scale. Then a decentralized model predictive controller was designed based on the two models derived from the original system. And the stability of the control method was proved. Simulations showed that the method was effective. PMID:19834542

Validation of Automated Prediction of Blood Product Needs Algorithm Processing Continuous Non Invasive Vital Signs Streams (ONPOINT4)

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-25

ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) University of Maryland, Baltimore 22 S. Greene St. R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center, T5R46 Baltimore, MD 21201 8...the revised trauma score, shock index (= heart rate/systolic blood pressure), and assessment of blood consumption, our M2 (bleeding risk index...11 4.2 Transfusion Prediction Model Evaluation in Special Subsets (Model Stress Test) ....... 15 4.3 Feature Sets and Model Stability

Modelling and tuning for a time-delayed vibration absorber with friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoxu; Xu, Jian; Ji, Jinchen

2018-06-01

This paper presents an integrated analytical and experimental study to the modelling and tuning of a time-delayed vibration absorber (TDVA) with friction. In system modelling, this paper firstly applies the method of averaging to obtain the frequency response function (FRF), and then uses the derived FRF to evaluate the fitness of different friction models. After the determination of the system model, this paper employs the obtained FRF to evaluate the vibration absorption performance with respect to tunable parameters. A significant feature of the TDVA with friction is that its stability is dependent on the excitation parameters. To ensure the stability of the time-delayed control, this paper defines a sufficient condition for stability estimation. Experimental measurements show that the dynamic response of the TDVA with friction can be accurately predicted and the time-delayed control can be precisely achieved by using the modelling and tuning technique provided in this paper.

Decomposition of heterogeneous organic matterand its long-term stabilization in soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sierra, Carlos A.; Harmon, Mark E.; Perakis, Steven S.

2011-01-01

Soil organic matter is a complex mixture of material with heterogeneous biological, physical, and chemical properties. Decomposition models represent this heterogeneity either as a set of discrete pools with different residence times or as a continuum of qualities. It is unclear though, whether these two different approaches yield comparable predictions of organic matter dynamics. Here, we compare predictions from these two different approaches and propose an intermediate approach to study organic matter decomposition based on concepts from continuous models implemented numerically. We found that the disagreement between discrete and continuous approaches can be considerable depending on the degree of nonlinearity of the model and simulation time. The two approaches can diverge substantially for predicting long-term processes in soils. Based on our alternative approach, which is a modification of the continuous quality theory, we explored the temporal patterns that emerge by treating substrate heterogeneity explicitly. The analysis suggests that the pattern of carbon mineralization over time is highly dependent on the degree and form of nonlinearity in the model, mostly expressed as differences in microbial growth and efficiency for different substrates. Moreover, short-term stabilization and destabilization mechanisms operating simultaneously result in long-term accumulation of carbon characterized by low decomposition rates, independent of the characteristics of the incoming litter. We show that representation of heterogeneity in the decomposition process can lead to substantial improvements in our understanding of carbon mineralization and its long-term stability in soils.

Stability and dynamics of the edge pedestal in the low collisionality regime: physics mechanisms for steady-state ELM-free operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, P. B.; Burrell, K. H.; Wilson, H. R.; Chu, M. S.; Fenstermacher, M. E.; Leonard, A. W.; Moyer, R. A.; Osborne, T. H.; Umansky, M.; West, W. P.; Xu, X. Q.

2007-08-01

Understanding the physics of the edge pedestal and edge localized modes (ELMs) is of great importance for ITER and the optimization of the tokamak concept. The peeling-ballooning model has quantitatively explained many observations, including ELM onset and pedestal constraints, in the standard H-mode regime. The ELITE code has been developed to efficiently evaluate peeling-ballooning stability for comparison with observation and predictions for future devices. We briefly review recent progress in the peeling-ballooning model, including experimental validation of ELM onset and pedestal height predictions, and nonlinear 3D simulations of ELM dynamics, which together lead to an emerging understanding of the physics of the onset and dynamics of ELMs in the standard intermediate to high collisionality regime. We also discuss new studies of the apparent power dependence of the pedestal, and studies of the impact of sheared toroidal flow. Recently, highly promising low collisionality regimes without ELMs have been discovered, including the quiescent H-mode (QH) and resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) regimes. We present recent observations from the DIII-D tokamak of the density, shape and rotation dependence of QH discharges, and studies of the peeling-ballooning stability in this regime. We propose a model of the QH-mode in which the observed edge harmonic oscillation (EHO) is a saturated kink/peeling mode which is destabilized by current and rotation, and drives significant transport, allowing a near steady-state edge plasma. The model quantitatively predicts the observed density dependence and qualitatively predicts observed mode structure, rotation dependence and outer gap dependence. Low density RMP discharges are found to operate in a similar regime, but with the EHO replaced by an applied magnetic perturbation.

Learning and Control Model of the Arm for Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyoungsik; Kambara, Hiroyuki; Shin, Duk; Koike, Yasuharu

We propose a learning and control model of the arm for a loading task in which an object is loaded onto one hand with the other hand, in the sagittal plane. Postural control during object interactions provides important points to motor control theories in terms of how humans handle dynamics changes and use the information of prediction and sensory feedback. For the learning and control model, we coupled a feedback-error-learning scheme with an Actor-Critic method used as a feedback controller. To overcome sensory delays, a feedforward dynamics model (FDM) was used in the sensory feedback path. We tested the proposed model in simulation using a two-joint arm with six muscles, each with time delays in muscle force generation. By applying the proposed model to the loading task, we showed that motor commands started increasing, before an object was loaded on, to stabilize arm posture. We also found that the FDM contributes to the stabilization by predicting how the hand changes based on contexts of the object and efferent signals. For comparison with other computational models, we present the simulation results of a minimum-variance model.

Estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests with random lot-to-lot variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Magari, Robert T

2002-03-01

The effect of different lot-to-lot variability levels on the prediction of stability are studied based on two statistical models for estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests. Lot-to-lot variability is considered as random in both models, and is attributed to two sources-variability at time zero, and variability of degradation rate. Real-time stability tests are modeled as a function of time while accelerated stability tests as a function of time and temperatures. Several data sets were simulated, and a maximum likelihood approach was used for estimation. The 95% confidence intervals for the degradation rate depend on the amount of lot-to-lot variability. When lot-to-lot degradation rate variability is relatively large (CV > or = 8%) the estimated confidence intervals do not represent the trend for individual lots. In such cases it is recommended to analyze each lot individually. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 91: 893-899, 2002

Testing the hydrodynamics and stability of ammonoids: empirical and simulation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Thomas; Astrop, Timothy; Ren, Qilong; Angioni, Stefano; Carley, Michael; Wills, Matthew

2016-04-01

The coiled shells of ammonoids have classically been modelled in theoretical morphospaces with just a few variables. As dynamic accretionary structures, their shells preserve developmental trajectory as well as adult morphology. In traversing mass extinction events, the morphospace occupation of ammonoids was repeatedly reduced, but the clade often recolonized much of this morphospace in the wake of each mass extinction. The gross morphology of ammonoid shells was therefore subject to high levels of homoplasy and convergence. However, it is unclear what precise functions the ammonoid shells may have been optimized for, neither is it known what determined the bounds of their morphospace given that not all geometrically possible forms were realized. We demonstrate that the actualized occupation of Raupian morphospace can be predicted from numerical modelling, given the dual requirements for stability and manoeuvrability, both while stationary within the water column and while swimming. We test these theoretical predictions in two ways: firstly using 3D printed models in waterflow tank experiments, and secondly using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) approaches. All concur that ammonoids were not especially efficient or impressive swimmers. Spherocone forms maximized stability at the expense of manoeuvrability, while platycone and oxycone morphologies were better adapted for more rapid directional change rather than stability. We speculate that the former were optimized for stability within the water column, while the latter were adapted for moving dynamically around obstructions close to the bottom or for predation-avoidance manoeuvres.

Comparison of stabilization by Vitamin E and 2,6-di-tert-butylphenols during polyethylene radio-thermal-oxidation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richaud, Emmanuel

2014-10-01

This paper reports a compilation of data for PE+Vitamin E and 2,6-di-tert-butylphenols oxidation in radio-thermal ageing. Data unambiguously show that Vitamin E reacts with Prad and POOrad whereas 2,6-di-tert-butyl phenols only react with POOrad. Kinetic parameters of the stabilization reactions for both kinds of antioxidants were tentatively extracted from phenol depletion curves, and discussed regarding the structure of the stabilizer. They were also used for completing an existing kinetic model used for predicting the stabilization by antioxidants. This one permits to compare the efficiency of stabilizer with dose rate or sample thickness.

Insights on activation enthalpy for non-Schmid slip in body-centered cubic metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hale, Lucas M.; Lim, Hojun; Zimmerman, Jonathan A.

2014-12-18

We use insights gained from atomistic simulation to develop an activation enthalpy model for dislocation slip in body-centered cubic iron. Furthermore, using a classical potential that predicts dislocation core stabilities consistent with ab initio predictions, we quantify the non-Schmid stress-dependent effects of slip. The kink-pair activation enthalpy is evaluated and a model is identified as a function of the general stress state. Thus, our model enlarges the applicability of the classic Kocks activation enthalpy model to materials with non-Schmid behavior.

Cilazapril stability in the presence of hydrochlorothiazide in model mixtures and fixed dose combination.

PubMed

Paszun, Sylwia K; Stanisz, Beata J; Gradowska, Agnieszka

2013-01-01

The presented study aimed at the evaluation of hydrochlorothiazide influence on cilazapril stability in model mixture and fixed dose tablet formulation. The degradation of cilazapril in the presence of hydrochlorothiazide took place according to autocatalytic reaction kinetic mechanism, described mathematically by Prout-Tompkins equation. Hydrochlorothiazide coexistence with cilazapril in model mixture and fixed dose tablet without blister package accelerated cilazapril degradation in comparison with degradation of cilazapril substance. Values of reaction induction time shortened, while those of observed reaction rate constant increased. Increasing values of relative humidity and temperature have negative impact on cilazapril stability. Determined semi-logarithmic relationships: In k = f(RH) and Arrhenius ln k = f(1/T) are linear and are cilazapril stability predictive. The blister (OPA/Alu/PVC//Alu) package of fixed dose tablets, constitutes absolute moisture protection and prevent cilazapril--hydrochlorothiazide interaction occurrence.

[Vis-NIR spectroscopic pattern recognition combined with SG smoothing applied to breed screening of transgenic sugarcane].

PubMed

Liu, Gui-Song; Guo, Hao-Song; Pan, Tao; Wang, Ji-Hua; Cao, Gan

2014-10-01

Based on Savitzky-Golay (SG) smoothing screening, principal component analysis (PCA) combined with separately supervised linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) were used for non-destructive visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) detection for breed screening of transgenic sugarcane. A random and stability-dependent framework of calibration, prediction, and validation was proposed. A total of 456 samples of sugarcane leaves planting in the elongating stage were collected from the field, which was composed of 306 transgenic (positive) samples containing Bt and Bar gene and 150 non-transgenic (negative) samples. A total of 156 samples (negative 50 and positive 106) were randomly selected as the validation set; the remaining samples (negative 100 and positive 200, a total of 300 samples) were used as the modeling set, and then the modeling set was subdivided into calibration (negative 50 and positive 100, a total of 150 samples) and prediction sets (negative 50 and positive 100, a total of 150 samples) for 50 times. The number of SG smoothing points was ex- panded, while some modes of higher derivative were removed because of small absolute value, and a total of 264 smoothing modes were used for screening. The pairwise combinations of first three principal components were used, and then the optimal combination of principal components was selected according to the model effect. Based on all divisions of calibration and prediction sets and all SG smoothing modes, the SG-PCA-LDA and SG-PCA-HCA models were established, the model parameters were optimized based on the average prediction effect for all divisions to produce modeling stability. Finally, the model validation was performed by validation set. With SG smoothing, the modeling accuracy and stability of PCA-LDA, PCA-HCA were signif- icantly improved. For the optimal SG-PCA-LDA model, the recognition rate of positive and negative validation samples were 94.3%, 96.0%; and were 92.5%, 98.0% for the optimal SG-PCA-LDA model, respectively. Vis-NIR spectro- scopic pattern recognition combined with SG smoothing could be used for accurate recognition of transgenic sugarcane leaves, and provided a convenient screening method for transgenic sugarcane breeding.

Stability and Control CFD Investigations of a Generic 53 Degree Swept UCAV Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frink, Neal T.

2014-01-01

NATO STO Task Group AVT-201 on "Extended Assessment of Reliable Stability & Control Prediction Methods for NATO Air Vehicles" is studying various computational approaches to predict stability and control parameters for aircraft undergoing non-linear flight conditions. This paper contributes an assessment through correlations with wind tunnel data for the state of aerodynamic predictive capability of time-accurate RANS methodology on the group's focus configuration, a 53deg swept and twisted lambda wing UCAV, undergoing a variety of roll, pitch, and yaw motions. The vehicle aerodynamics is dominated by the complex non-linear physics of round leading-edge vortex flow separation. Correlations with experimental data are made for static longitudinal/lateral sweeps, and at varying frequencies of prescribed roll/pitch/yaw sinusoidal motion for the vehicle operating with and without control surfaces. The data and the derived understanding should prove useful to the AVT-201 team and other researchers who are developing techniques for augmenting flight simulation models from low-speed CFD predictions of aircraft traversing non-linear regions of a flight envelope.

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

2005-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Predicting RNA pseudoknot folding thermodynamics

PubMed Central

Cao, Song; Chen, Shi-Jie

2006-01-01

Based on the experimentally determined atomic coordinates for RNA helices and the self-avoiding walks of the P (phosphate) and C4 (carbon) atoms in the diamond lattice for the polynucleotide loop conformations, we derive a set of conformational entropy parameters for RNA pseudoknots. Based on the entropy parameters, we develop a folding thermodynamics model that enables us to compute the sequence-specific RNA pseudoknot folding free energy landscape and thermodynamics. The model is validated through extensive experimental tests both for the native structures and for the folding thermodynamics. The model predicts strong sequence-dependent helix-loop competitions in the pseudoknot stability and the resultant conformational switches between different hairpin and pseudoknot structures. For instance, for the pseudoknot domain of human telomerase RNA, a native-like and a misfolded hairpin intermediates are found to coexist on the (equilibrium) folding pathways, and the interplay between the stabilities of these intermediates causes the conformational switch that may underlie a human telomerase disease. PMID:16709732

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Fluorescence Competition Assay Measurements of Free Energy Changes for RNA Pseudoknots†

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

RNA pseudoknots have important functions, and thermodynamic stability is a key to predicting pseudoknots in RNA sequences and to understanding their functions. Traditional methods, such as UV melting and differential scanning calorimetry, for measuring RNA thermodynamics are restricted to temperature ranges around the melting temperature for a pseudoknot. Here, we report RNA pseudoknot free energy changes at 37 °C measured by fluorescence competition assays. Sequence-dependent studies for the loop 1−stem 2 region reveal (1) the individual nearest-neighbor hydrogen bonding (INN-HB) model provides a reasonable estimate for the free energy change when a Watson−Crick base pair in stem 2 is changed, (2) the loop entropy can be estimated by a statistical polymer model, although some penalty for certain loop sequences is necessary, and (3) tertiary interactions can significantly stabilize pseudoknots and extending the length of stem 2 may alter tertiary interactions such that the INN-HB model does not predict the net effect of adding a base pair. The results can inform writing of algorithms for predicting and/or designing RNA secondary structures. PMID:19921809

La Recherche Aerospatiale, Bimonthly Bulletin, no. 1982-6, 211/November-Decemter 1982

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sevestre, C.

1983-04-01

A modular method for centrifugal compressor performance prediction is presented. Cyclic hardening of stainless steel under complex loading is described. Fatigue failure microinitiation, micropropagation and damage is considered. The stability of a tilting rotor aircraft model is studied. The thermal stability of titanium alloys is investigated. A compensator for thermal effects on quartz oscillators is described.

Stability analysis of electrical powered wheelchair-mounted robotic-assisted transfer device.

PubMed

Wang, Hongwu; Tsai, Chung-Ying; Jeannis, Hervens; Chung, Cheng-Shiu; Kelleher, Annmarie; Grindle, Garrett G; Cooper, Rory A

2014-01-01

The ability of people with disabilities to live in their homes and communities with maximal independence often hinges, at least in part, on their ability to transfer or be transferred by an assistant. Because of limited resources and the expense of personal care, robotic transfer assistance devices will likely be in great demand. An easy-to-use system for assisting with transfers, attachable to electrical powered wheelchairs (EPWs) and readily transportable, could have a significant positive effect on the quality of life of people with disabilities. We investigated the stability of our newly developed Strong Arm, which is attached and integrated with an EPW to assist with transfers. The stability of the system was analyzed and verified by experiments applying different loads and using different system configurations. The model predicted the distributions of the system's center of mass very well compared with the experimental results. When real transfers were conducted with 50 and 75 kg loads and an 83.25 kg dummy, the current Strong Arm could transfer all weights safely without tip-over. Our modeling accurately predicts the stability of the system and is suitable for developing better control algorithms to enhance the safety of the device.

Vision-based flight control in the hawkmoth Hyles lineata

PubMed Central

Windsor, Shane P.; Bomphrey, Richard J.; Taylor, Graham K.

2014-01-01

Vision is a key sensory modality for flying insects, playing an important role in guidance, navigation and control. Here, we use a virtual-reality flight simulator to measure the optomotor responses of the hawkmoth Hyles lineata, and use a published linear-time invariant model of the flight dynamics to interpret the function of the measured responses in flight stabilization and control. We recorded the forces and moments produced during oscillation of the visual field in roll, pitch and yaw, varying the temporal frequency, amplitude or spatial frequency of the stimulus. The moths’ responses were strongly dependent upon contrast frequency, as expected if the optomotor system uses correlation-type motion detectors to sense self-motion. The flight dynamics model predicts that roll angle feedback is needed to stabilize the lateral dynamics, and that a combination of pitch angle and pitch rate feedback is most effective in stabilizing the longitudinal dynamics. The moths’ responses to roll and pitch stimuli coincided qualitatively with these functional predictions. The moths produced coupled roll and yaw moments in response to yaw stimuli, which could help to reduce the energetic cost of correcting heading. Our results emphasize the close relationship between physics and physiology in the stabilization of insect flight. PMID:24335557

Simultaneous selection for cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) genotypes with adaptability and yield stability using mixed models.

PubMed

Torres, F E; Teodoro, P E; Rodrigues, E V; Santos, A; Corrêa, A M; Ceccon, G

2016-04-29

The aim of this study was to select erect cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) genotypes simultaneously for high adaptability, stability, and yield grain in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil using mixed models. We conducted six trials of different cowpea genotypes in 2005 and 2006 in Aquidauana, Chapadão do Sul, Dourados, and Primavera do Leste. The experimental design was randomized complete blocks with four replications and 20 genotypes. Genetic parameters were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction, and selection was based on the harmonic mean of the relative performance of genetic values method using three strategies: selection based on the predicted breeding value, having considered the performance mean of the genotypes in all environments (no interaction effect); the performance in each environment (with an interaction effect); and the simultaneous selection for grain yield, stability, and adaptability. The MNC99542F-5 and MNC99-537F-4 genotypes could be grown in various environments, as they exhibited high grain yield, adaptability, and stability. The average heritability of the genotypes was moderate to high and the selective accuracy was 82%, indicating an excellent potential for selection.

Toward comparing experiment and theory for corroborative research on hingeless rotor stability in forward flight (an experimental and analytical investigation of isolated rotor-flap-lag stability in forward flight)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, G.

1986-01-01

For flap-lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations are conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasisteady aerodynamics theory with dynamic inflow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode are emphasized. Accordingly, a soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades is tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 degrees. The 1.62 m model rotor is untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. In combination with lag natural frequencies, collective pitch settings and flap-lag coupling parameters, the data base comprises nearly 1200 test points (damping and frequency) in forward flight and 200 test points in hover. By computerized symbolic manipulation, a linear analytical model is developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode identificaton. To help explain the correlation between theory and data it also predicts substall and stall regions of the rotor disk from equilibrium values. The correlation shows both the strengthts and weaknesses of the theory in substall.

Vision-based flight control in the hawkmoth Hyles lineata.

PubMed

Windsor, Shane P; Bomphrey, Richard J; Taylor, Graham K

2014-02-06

Vision is a key sensory modality for flying insects, playing an important role in guidance, navigation and control. Here, we use a virtual-reality flight simulator to measure the optomotor responses of the hawkmoth Hyles lineata, and use a published linear-time invariant model of the flight dynamics to interpret the function of the measured responses in flight stabilization and control. We recorded the forces and moments produced during oscillation of the visual field in roll, pitch and yaw, varying the temporal frequency, amplitude or spatial frequency of the stimulus. The moths' responses were strongly dependent upon contrast frequency, as expected if the optomotor system uses correlation-type motion detectors to sense self-motion. The flight dynamics model predicts that roll angle feedback is needed to stabilize the lateral dynamics, and that a combination of pitch angle and pitch rate feedback is most effective in stabilizing the longitudinal dynamics. The moths' responses to roll and pitch stimuli coincided qualitatively with these functional predictions. The moths produced coupled roll and yaw moments in response to yaw stimuli, which could help to reduce the energetic cost of correcting heading. Our results emphasize the close relationship between physics and physiology in the stabilization of insect flight.

Prediction of pilot-aircraft stability boundaries and performance contours

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengel, R. F.; Broussard, J. R.

1977-01-01

Control-theoretic pilot models can provide important new insights regarding the stability and performance characteristics of the pilot-aircraft system. Optimal-control pilot models can be formed for a wide range of flight conditions, suggesting that the human pilot can maintain stability if he adapts his control strategy to the aircraft's changing dynamics. Of particular concern is the effect of sub-optimal pilot adaptation as an aircraft transitions from low to high angle-of-attack during rapid maneuvering, as the changes in aircraft stability and control response can be extreme. This paper examines the effects of optimal and sub-optimal effort during a typical 'high-g' maneuver, and it introduces the concept of minimum-control effort (MCE) adaptation. Limited experimental results tend to support the MCE adaptation concept.

Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goriely, Stephane; Hilaire, Stephane; Dubray, Noel; Lemaître, Jean-François

2017-09-01

The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. Nowadays mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenological inputs in the evaluation of nuclear data. The latest achievements to determine nuclear masses within the non-relativistic HFB approach, including the related uncertainties in the model predictions, are discussed. Similarly, recent efforts to determine fission observables within the mean-field approach are described and compared with more traditional existing models.

Aperiodic Robust Model Predictive Control for Constrained Continuous-Time Nonlinear Systems: An Event-Triggered Approach.

PubMed

Liu, Changxin; Gao, Jian; Li, Huiping; Xu, Demin

2018-05-01

The event-triggered control is a promising solution to cyber-physical systems, such as networked control systems, multiagent systems, and large-scale intelligent systems. In this paper, we propose an event-triggered model predictive control (MPC) scheme for constrained continuous-time nonlinear systems with bounded disturbances. First, a time-varying tightened state constraint is computed to achieve robust constraint satisfaction, and an event-triggered scheduling strategy is designed in the framework of dual-mode MPC. Second, the sufficient conditions for ensuring feasibility and closed-loop robust stability are developed, respectively. We show that robust stability can be ensured and communication load can be reduced with the proposed MPC algorithm. Finally, numerical simulations and comparison studies are performed to verify the theoretical results.

A new model for predicting moisture uptake by packaged solid pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Chen, Y; Li, Y

2003-04-14

A novel mathematical model has been developed for predicting moisture uptake by packaged solid pharmaceutical products during storage. High density polyethylene (HDPE) bottles containing the tablet products of two new chemical entities and desiccants are investigated. Permeability of the bottles is determined at different temperatures using steady-state data. Moisture sorption isotherms of the two model drug products and desiccants at the same temperatures are determined and expressed in polynomial equations. The isotherms are used for modeling the time-humidity profile in the container, which enables the prediction of the moisture content of individual component during storage. Predicted moisture contents agree well with real time stability data. The current model could serve as a guide during packaging selection for moisture protection, so as to reduce the cost and cycle time of screening study.

Development of Integrated Magnetic and Kinetic Control-oriented Transport Model for q-profile Response Prediction in EAST Discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hexiang; Schuster, Eugenio; Rafiq, Tariq; Kritz, Arnold; Ding, Siye

2016-10-01

Extensive research has been conducted to find high-performance operating scenarios characterized by high fusion gain, good confinement, plasma stability and possible steady-state operation. A key plasma property that is related to both the stability and performance of these advanced plasma scenarios is the safety factor profile. A key component of the EAST research program is the exploration of non-inductively driven steady-state plasmas with the recently upgraded heating and current drive capabilities that include lower hybrid current drive and neutral beam injection. Anticipating the need for tight regulation of the safety factor profile in these plasma scenarios, a first-principles-driven (FPD)control-oriented model is proposed to describe the safety factor profile evolution in EAST in response to the different actuators. The TRANSP simulation code is employed to tailor the FPD model to the EAST tokamak geometry and to convert it into a form suitable for control design. The FPD control-oriented model's prediction capabilities are demonstrated by comparing predictions with experimental data from EAST. Supported by the US DOE under DE-SC0010537,DE-FG02-92ER54141 and DE-SC0013977.

Analysis of Wind Tunnel Oscillatory Data of the X-31A Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Mark S.

1999-01-01

Wind tunnel oscillatory tests in pitch, roll, and yaw were performed on a 19%-scale model of the X-31A aircraft. These tests were used to study the aerodynamic characteristics of the X-31A in response to harmonic oscillations at six frequencies. In-phase and out-of-phase components of the aerodynamic coefficients were obtained over a range of angles of attack from 0 to 90 deg. To account for the effect of frequency on the data, mathematical models with unsteady terms were formulated by use of two different indicial functions. Data from a reduced set of frequencies were used to estimate model parameters, including steady-state static and dynamic stability derivatives. Both models showed good prediction capability and the ability to accurately fit the measured data. Estimated static stability derivatives compared well with those obtained from static wind tunnel tests. The roll and yaw rate derivative estimates were compared with rotary-balanced wind tunnel data and theoretical predictions. The estimates and theoretical predictions were in agreement at small angles of attack. The rotary-balance data showed, in general, acceptable agreement with the steady-state derivative estimates.

Evaluation of accelerated stability test conditions for medicated chewing gums.

PubMed

Maggi, Lauretta; Conte, Ubaldo; Nhamias, Alain; Grenier, Pascal; Vergnault, Guy

2013-10-01

The overall stability of medicated chewing gums is investigated under different storage conditions. Active substances with different chemical stabilities in solid state are chosen as model drugs. The dosage form is a three layer tablet obtained by direct compression. The gum core contains the active ingredient while the external layers are formulated to prevent gum adhesion to the punches of the tableting machine. Two accelerated test conditions (40°C/75% RH and 30°C/65% RH) are performed for 6 months. Furthermore, a long-term stability test at room conditions is conducted to verify the predictability of the results obtained from the stress tests. Some drugs are stable in all the conditions tested, but other drugs, generally considered stable in solid dosage forms, have shown relevant stability problems particularly when stress test conditions are applied to this particular semi-solid dosage forms. For less stable drugs, the stress conditions of 40°C/75% RH are not always predictable of chewing gum stability at room temperature and may produce false negative; intermediate conditions, 30°C/65% RH, are more predictive for this purpose, the results of drug content found after 6 months at intermediate stress conditions and 12 months at room conditions are generally comparable. But the results obtained show that only long-term conditions stability tests gave consistent results. During aging, the semi solid nature of the gum base itself, may also influence the drug delivery rate during chewing and great attention should be given also to the dissolution stability.

Combined effects of trapped energetic ions and resistive layer damping on the stability of the resistive wall mode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Yuling; Liu, Yue, E-mail: Yueqiang.Liu@ccfe.ac.uk, E-mail: liuyue@dlut.edu.cn; Liu, Chao

2016-01-15

A dispersion relation is derived for the stability of the resistive wall mode (RWM), which includes both the resistive layer damping physics and the toroidal precession drift resonance damping from energetic ions in tokamak plasmas. The dispersion relation is numerically solved for a model plasma, for the purpose of systematic investigation of the RWM stability in multi-dimensional plasma parameter space including the plasma resistivity, the radial location of the resistive wall, as well as the toroidal flow velocity. It is found that the toroidal favorable average curvature in the resistive layer contributes a significant stabilization of the RWM. This stabilizationmore » is further enhanced by adding the drift kinetic contribution from energetic ions. Furthermore, two traditionally assumed inner layer models are considered and compared in the dispersion relation, resulting in different predictions for the stability of the RWM.« less

Heaviest Nuclei: New Element with Atomic Number 117

ScienceCinema

Oganessian, Yuri

2018-01-24

One of the fundamental outcomes of the nuclear shell model is the prediction of the 'stability islands' in the domain of the hypothetical super heavy elements. The talk is devoted to the experimental verification of these predictions - the synthesis and study of both the decay and chemical properties of the super heavy elements. The discovery of a new chemical element with atomic number Z=117 is reported. The isotopes 293117 and 294117 were produced in fusion reactions between 48Ca and 249Bk. Decay chains involving 11 new nuclei were identified by means of the Dubna gas-filled recoil separator. The measured decay properties show a strong rise of stability for heavier isotopes with Z =111, validating the concept of the long sought island of enhanced stability for heaviest nuclei.

Personality Plasticity After Age 30

PubMed Central

Terracciano, Antonio; Costa, Paul T.; McCrae, Robert R.

2009-01-01

Rank-order consistency of personality traits increases from childhood to age 30. After that, different summaries of the literature predict a plateau at age 30, or at age 50, or a curvilinear peak in consistency at age 50. These predictions were evaluated at group and individual levels using longitudinal data from the Guilford-Zimmerman Temperament Survey and the Revised NEO Personality Inventory over periods of up to 42 years. Consistency declined toward a non-zero asymptote with increasing time-interval. Although some scales showed increasing stability after age 30, the rank-order consistencies of the major dimensions and most facets of the Five-Factor Model were unrelated to age. Ipsative stability, assessed with the California Adult Q-Set, was also unrelated to age. These data strengthen claims of predominant personality stability after age 30. PMID:16861305

The effects of psammophilous plants on sand dune dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bel, Golan; Ashkenazy, Yosef

2014-07-01

Mathematical models of sand dune dynamics have considered different types of sand dune cover. However, despite the important role of psammophilous plants (plants that flourish in moving-sand environments) in dune dynamics, the incorporation of their effects into mathematical models of sand dunes remains a challenging task. Here we propose a nonlinear physical model for the role of psammophilous plants in the stabilization and destabilization of sand dunes. There are two main mechanisms by which the wind affects these plants: (i) sand drift results in the burial and exposure of plants, a process that is known to result in an enhanced growth rate, and (ii) strong winds remove shoots and rhizomes and seed them in nearby locations, enhancing their growth rate. Our model describes the temporal evolution of the fractions of surface cover of regular vegetation, biogenic soil crust, and psammophilous plants. The latter reach their optimal growth under either (i) specific sand drift or (ii) specific wind power. The model exhibits complex bifurcation diagrams and dynamics, which explain observed phenomena, and it predicts new dune stabilization scenarios. Depending on the climatological conditions, it is possible to obtain one, two, or, predicted here for the first time, three stable dune states. Our model shows that the development of the different cover types depends on the precipitation rate and the wind power and that the psammophilous plants are not always the first to grow and stabilize the dunes.

Comparing the line broadened quasilinear model to Vlasov code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghantous, K.; Berk, H. L.; Gorelenkov, N. N.

2014-03-01

The Line Broadened Quasilinear (LBQ) model is revisited to study its predicted saturation level as compared with predictions of a Vlasov solver BOT [Lilley et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 195003 (2009) and M. Lilley, BOT Manual. The parametric dependencies of the model are modified to achieve more accuracy compared to the results of the Vlasov solver both in regards to a mode amplitude's time evolution to a saturated state and its final steady state amplitude in the parameter space of the model's applicability. However, the regions of stability as predicted by LBQ model and BOT are found to significantly differ from each other. The solutions of the BOT simulations are found to have a larger region of instability than the LBQ simulations.

Zinc complexation in chloride-rich hydrothermal fluids (25-600 °C): A thermodynamic model derived from ab initio molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Yuan; Sherman, David M.; Liu, Weihua; Etschmann, Barbara; Testemale, Denis; Brugger, Joël

2015-02-01

The solubility of zinc minerals in hydrothermal fluids is enhanced by chloride complexation of Zn2+. Thermodynamic models of these complexation reactions are central to models of Zn transport and ore formation. However, existing thermodynamic models, derived from solubility measurements, are inconsistent with spectroscopic measurements of Zn speciation. Here, we used ab initio molecular dynamics simulations (with the PBE exchange-correlation functional) to predict the speciation of Zn-Cl complexes from 25 to 600 °C. We also obtained in situ XAS measurements of Zn-Cl solutions at 30-600 °C. Qualitatively, the simulations reproduced the main features derived from in situ XANES and EXAFS measurements: octahedral to tetrahedral transition with increasing temperature and salinity, stability of ZnCl42- at high chloride concentration up to ⩾500 °C, and increasing stability of the trigonal planar [ZnCl3]- complex at high temperature. Having confirmed the dominant species, we directly determined the stability constants for the Zn-Cl complexes using thermodynamic integration along constrained Zn-Cl distances in a series of MD simulations. We corrected our stability constants to infinite dilution using the b-dot model for the activity coefficients of the solute species. In order to compare the ab initio results with experiments, we need to re-model the existing solubility data using the species we identified in our MD simulations. The stability constants derived from refitting published experimental data are in reasonable agreement with those we obtained using ab initio MD simulations. Our new thermodynamic model accurately predicts the experimentally observed changes in ZnO(s) and ZnCO3(s) solubility as a function of chloride concentration from 200 (Psat) to 600 °C (2000 bar). This study demonstrates that metal speciation and geologically useful stability constants can be derived for species in hydrothermal fluids from ab initio MD simulations even at the generalized gradient approximation for exchange-correlation. We caution, however, that simulations are mostly reliable at high T where ligand exchange is fast enough to yield thermodynamic averages over the timescales of the simulations.

Assessing deep-seated landslide susceptibility using 3-D groundwater and slope-stability analyses, southwestern Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brien, Dianne L.; Reid, Mark E.

2008-01-01

In Seattle, Washington, deep-seated landslides on bluffs along Puget Sound have historically caused extensive damage to land and structures. These large failures are controlled by three-dimensional (3-D) variations in strength and pore-water pressures. We assess the slope stability of part of southwestern Seattle using a 3-D limit-equilibrium analysis coupled with a 3-D groundwater flow model. Our analyses use a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) combined with assignment of strength and hydraulic properties based on geologic units. The hydrogeology of the Seattle area consists of a layer of permeable glacial outwash sand that overlies less permeable glacial lacustrine silty clay. Using a 3-D groundwater model, MODFLOW-2000, we simulate a water table above the less permeable units and calibrate the model to observed conditions. The simulated pore-pressure distribution is then used in a 3-D slope-stability analysis, SCOOPS, to quantify the stability of the coastal bluffs. For wet winter conditions, our analyses predict that the least stable areas are steep hillslopes above Puget Sound, where pore pressures are elevated in the outwash sand. Groundwater flow converges in coastal reentrants, resulting in elevated pore pressures and destabilization of slopes. Regions predicted to be least stable include the areas in or adjacent to three mapped historically active deep-seated landslides. The results of our 3-D analyses differ significantly from a slope map or results from one-dimensional (1-D) analyses.

Nonlinear Combustion Instability Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flandro, Gary

2010-01-01

The liquid rocket engine stability prediction software (LCI) predicts combustion stability of systems using LOX-LH2 propellants. Both longitudinal and transverse mode stability characteristics are calculated. This software has the unique feature of being able to predict system limit amplitude.

Stability Analysis of the Slowed-Rotor Compound Helicopter Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Floros, Matthew W.; Johnson, Wayne

2007-01-01

The stability and control of rotors at high advance ratio are considered. Teetering, articulated, gimbaled, and rigid hub types are considered for a compound helicopter (rotor and fixed wing). Stability predictions obtained using an analytical rigid flapping blade analysis, a rigid blade CAMRAD II model, and an elastic blade CAMRAD II model are compared. For the flapping blade analysis, the teetering rotor is the most stable, showing no instabilities up to an advance ratio of 3 and a Lock number of 18. A notional elastic blade model of a teetering rotor is unstable at an advance ratio of 1.5, independent of pitch frequency. Analysis of the trim controls and blade flapping shows that for small positive collective pitch, trim can be maintained without excessive control input or flapping angles.

Finite element modelling of primary hip stem stability: the effect of interference fit.

PubMed

Abdul-Kadir, Mohammed Rafiq; Hansen, Ulrich; Klabunde, Ralf; Lucas, Duncan; Amis, Andrew

2008-01-01

The most commonly reported complications related to cementless hip stems are loosening and thigh pain; both of these have been attributed to high levels of relative micromotion at the bone-implant interface due to insufficient primary fixation. Primary fixation is believed by many to rely on achieving a sufficient interference fit between the implant and the bone. However, attempting to achieve a high interference fit not infrequently leads to femoral canal fracture either intra-operatively or soon after. The appropriate range of diametrical interference fit that ensures primary stability without risking femoral fracture is not well understood. In this study, a finite element model was constructed to predict micromotion and, therefore, instability of femoral stems. The model was correlated with an in vitro micromotion experiment carried out on four cadaver femurs. It was confirmed that interference fit has a very significant effect on micromotion and ignoring this parameter in an analysis of primary stability is likely to underestimate the stability of the stem. Furthermore, it was predicted that the optimal level of interference fit is around 50 microm as this is sufficient to achieve good primary fixation while having a safety factor of 2 against femoral canal fracture. This result is of clinical relevance as it indicates a recommendation for the surgeon to err on the side of a low interference fit rather than risking femoral fracture.

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens

2017-06-01

Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 behavioural model runs with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that precipitation intensities during the investigated landslide-triggering rainfall events were already close to or above the soil's infiltration capacity.

Modelling proteins' hidden conformations to predict antibiotic resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Kathryn M.; Ho, Chris M. W.; Dutta, Supratik; Gross, Michael L.; Bowman, Gregory R.

2016-10-01

TEM β-lactamase confers bacteria with resistance to many antibiotics and rapidly evolves activity against new drugs. However, functional changes are not easily explained by differences in crystal structures. We employ Markov state models to identify hidden conformations and explore their role in determining TEM's specificity. We integrate these models with existing drug-design tools to create a new technique, called Boltzmann docking, which better predicts TEM specificity by accounting for conformational heterogeneity. Using our MSMs, we identify hidden states whose populations correlate with activity against cefotaxime. To experimentally detect our predicted hidden states, we use rapid mass spectrometric footprinting and confirm our models' prediction that increased cefotaxime activity correlates with reduced Ω-loop flexibility. Finally, we design novel variants to stabilize the hidden cefotaximase states, and find their populations predict activity against cefotaxime in vitro and in vivo. Therefore, we expect this framework to have numerous applications in drug and protein design.

Influence of press-fit parameters on the primary stability of uncemented femoral resurfacing implants.

PubMed

Gebert, A; Peters, J; Bishop, N E; Westphal, F; Morlock, M M

2009-01-01

Primary stability is essential to the success of uncemented prostheses. It is strongly influenced by implantation technique, implant design and bone quality. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of press-fit parameters on the primary stability of uncemented femoral head resurfacing prostheses. An in vitro study with human specimens and prototype implants (nominal radial interference 170 and 420 microm) was used to investigate the effect of interference on primary stability. A finite element model was used to assess the influence of interference, friction between implant and bone, and bone quality. Primary stability was represented by the torque capacity of the implant. The model predicted increasing stability with actual interference, bone quality and friction coefficient; plastic deformation of the bone began at interferences of less than 100 microm. Experimentally, however, stability was not related to interference. This may be due to abrasion or the collapse of trabecular bone structures at higher interferences, which could not be captured by the model. High nominal interferences as tested experimentally appear unlikely to result in improved stability clinically. An implantation force of about 2,500 N was estimated to be sufficient to achieve a torque capacity of about 30 N m with a small interference (70 microm).

Enhanced stability of steep channel beds to mass failure and debris flow initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prancevic, J.; Lamb, M. P.; Ayoub, F.; Venditti, J. G.

2015-12-01

Debris flows dominate bedrock erosion and sediment transport in very steep mountain channels, and are often initiated from failure of channel-bed alluvium during storms. While several theoretical models exist to predict mass failures, few have been tested because observations of in-channel bed failures are extremely limited. To fill this gap in our understanding, we performed laboratory flume experiments to identify the conditions necessary to initiate bed failures in non-cohesive sediment of different sizes (D = 0.7 mm to 15 mm) on steep channel-bed slopes (S = 0.45 to 0.93) and in the presence of water flow. In beds composed of sand, failures occurred under sub-saturated conditions on steep bed slopes (S > 0.5) and under super-saturated conditions at lower slopes. In beds of gravel, however, failures occurred only under super-saturated conditions at all tested slopes, even those approaching the dry angle of repose. Consistent with theoretical models, mass failures under super-saturated conditions initiated along a failure plane approximately one grain-diameter below the bed surface, whereas the failure plane was located near the base of the bed under sub-saturated conditions. However, all experimental beds were more stable than predicted by 1-D infinite-slope stability models. In partially saturated sand, enhanced stability appears to result from suction stress. Enhanced stability in gravel may result from turbulent energy losses in pores or increased granular friction for failures that are shallow with respect to grain size. These grain-size dependent effects are not currently included in stability models for non-cohesive sediment, and they may help to explain better the timing and location of debris flow occurrence.

Stability basin estimates fall risk from observed kinematics, demonstrated on the Sit-to-Stand task.

PubMed

Shia, Victor; Moore, Talia Yuki; Holmes, Patrick; Bajcsy, Ruzena; Vasudevan, Ram

2018-04-27

The ability to quantitatively measure stability is essential to ensuring the safety of locomoting systems. While the response to perturbation directly reflects the stability of a motion, this experimental method puts human subjects at risk. Unfortunately, existing indirect methods for estimating stability from unperturbed motion have been shown to have limited predictive power. This paper leverages recent advances in dynamical systems theory to accurately estimate the stability of human motion without requiring perturbation. This approach relies on kinematic observations of a nominal Sit-to-Stand motion to construct an individual-specific dynamic model, input bounds, and feedback control that are then used to compute the set of perturbations from which the model can recover. This set, referred to as the stability basin, was computed for 14 individuals, and was able to successfully differentiate between less and more stable Sit-to-Stand strategies for each individual with greater accuracy than existing methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biomarker-Based Risk Model to Predict Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With Stable Coronary Disease.

PubMed

Lindholm, Daniel; Lindbäck, Johan; Armstrong, Paul W; Budaj, Andrzej; Cannon, Christopher P; Granger, Christopher B; Hagström, Emil; Held, Claes; Koenig, Wolfgang; Östlund, Ollie; Stewart, Ralph A H; Soffer, Joseph; White, Harvey D; de Winter, Robbert J; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; Siegbahn, Agneta; Kleber, Marcus E; Dressel, Alexander; Grammer, Tanja B; März, Winfried; Wallentin, Lars

2017-08-15

Currently, there is no generally accepted model to predict outcomes in stable coronary heart disease (CHD). This study evaluated and compared the prognostic value of biomarkers and clinical variables to develop a biomarker-based prediction model in patients with stable CHD. In a prospective, randomized trial cohort of 13,164 patients with stable CHD, we analyzed several candidate biomarkers and clinical variables and used multivariable Cox regression to develop a clinical prediction model based on the most important markers. The primary outcome was cardiovascular (CV) death, but model performance was also explored for other key outcomes. It was internally bootstrap validated, and externally validated in 1,547 patients in another study. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, there were 591 cases of CV death. The 3 most important biomarkers were N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, where NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT had greater prognostic value than any other biomarker or clinical variable. The final prediction model included age (A), biomarkers (B) (NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), and clinical variables (C) (smoking, diabetes mellitus, and peripheral arterial disease). This "ABC-CHD" model had high discriminatory ability for CV death (c-index 0.81 in derivation cohort, 0.78 in validation cohort), with adequate calibration in both cohorts. This model provided a robust tool for the prediction of CV death in patients with stable CHD. As it is based on a small number of readily available biomarkers and clinical factors, it can be widely employed to complement clinical assessment and guide management based on CV risk. (The Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy Trial [STABILITY]; NCT00799903). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mixtures of charged colloid and neutral polymer: Influence of electrostatic interactions on demixing and interfacial tension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, Alan R.; Schmidt, Matthias

2005-06-01

The equilibrium phase behavior of a binary mixture of charged colloids and neutral, nonadsorbing polymers is studied within free-volume theory. A model mixture of charged hard-sphere macroions and ideal, coarse-grained, effective-sphere polymers is mapped first onto a binary hard-sphere mixture with nonadditive diameters and then onto an effective Asakura-Oosawa model [S. Asakura and F. Oosawa, J. Chem. Phys. 22, 1255 (1954)]. The effective model is defined by a single dimensionless parameter—the ratio of the polymer diameter to the effective colloid diameter. For high salt-to-counterion concentration ratios, a free-volume approximation for the free energy is used to compute the fluid phase diagram, which describes demixing into colloid-rich (liquid) and colloid-poor (vapor) phases. Increasing the range of electrostatic interactions shifts the demixing binodal toward higher polymer concentration, stabilizing the mixture. The enhanced stability is attributed to a weakening of polymer depletion-induced attraction between electrostatically repelling macroions. Comparison with predictions of density-functional theory reveals a corresponding increase in the liquid-vapor interfacial tension. The predicted trends in phase stability are consistent with observed behavior of protein-polysaccharide mixtures in food colloids.

Thermal, Structural, and Optical Analysis of a Balloon-Based Imaging System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borden, Michael; Lewis, Derek; Ochoa, Hared; Jones-Wilson, Laura; Susca, Sara; Porter, Michael; Massey, Richard; Clark, Paul; Netterfield, Barth

2017-03-01

The Subarcsecond Telescope And BaLloon Experiment, STABLE, is the fine stage of a guidance system for a high-altitude ballooning platform designed to demonstrate subarcsecond pointing stability over one minute using relatively dim guide stars in the visible spectrum. The STABLE system uses an attitude rate sensor and the motion of the guide star on a detector to control a Fast Steering Mirror to stabilize the image. The characteristics of the thermal-optical-mechanical elements in the system directly affect the quality of the point-spread function of the guide star on the detector, so a series of thermal, structural, and optical models were built to simulate system performance and ultimately inform the final pointing stability predictions. This paper describes the modeling techniques employed in each of these subsystems. The results from those models are discussed in detail, highlighting the development of the worst-case cold and hot cases, the optical metrics generated from the finite element model, and the expected STABLE residual wavefront error and decenter. Finally, the paper concludes with the predicted sensitivities in the STABLE system, which show that thermal deadbanding, structural pre-loading, and self-deflection under different loading conditions, and the speed of individual optical elements were particularly important to the resulting STABLE optical performance.

Whirl Flutter Stability and Its Influence on the Design of the Distributed Electric Propeller Aircraft X- 57

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoover, Christian B.; Shen, Jinwei; Kreshock, Andrew R.; Stanford, Bret K.; Piatak, David J.; Heeg, Jennifer

2017-01-01

This paper studies the whirl flutter stability of the NASA experimental electric propulsion aircraft designated the X-57 Maxwell. whirl flutter stability is studied at two flight conditions: sea level at 2700 RPM to represent take-off and landing and 8000 feet at 2250 RPM to represent cruise. Two multibody dynamics analyses are used: CAMRAD II and Dymore. The CAMRAD II model is a semi-span X-57 model with a modal representation for the wing/pylon system. The Dymore model is a semi-span wing with a propeller composed of beam elements for the wing/pylon system that airloads can be applied to. The two multibody dynamics analyses were verified by comparing structural properties between each other and the NASTRAN analysis. For whirl flutter, three design revisions of the wing and pylon mount system are studied. The predicted frequencies and damping ratio of the wing modes show good agreements between the two analyses. Dymore tended to predict a slightly lower damping ratio as velocity increased for all three dynamic modes presented. Whirl flutter for the semi-span model was not present up to 500 knots for the latest design, well above the operating range of the X-57.

Entrance and exit region friction factor models for annular seal analysis. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elrod, David Alan

1988-01-01

The Mach number definition and boundary conditions in Nelson's nominally-centered, annular gas seal analysis are revised. A method is described for determining the wall shear stress characteristics of an annular gas seal experimentally. Two friction factor models are developed for annular seal analysis; one model is based on flat-plate flow theory; the other uses empirical entrance and exit region friction factors. The friction factor predictions of the models are compared to experimental results. Each friction model is used in an annular gas seal analysis. The seal characteristics predicted by the two seal analyses are compared to experimental results and to the predictions of Nelson's analysis. The comparisons are for smooth-rotor seals with smooth and honeycomb stators. The comparisons show that the analysis which uses empirical entrance and exit region shear stress models predicts the static and stability characteristics of annular gas seals better than the other analyses. The analyses predict direct stiffness poorly.

A two-layer model for buoyant inertial displacement flows in inclined pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etrati, Ali; Frigaard, Ian A.

2018-02-01

We investigate the inertial flows found in buoyant miscible displacements using a two-layer model. From displacement flow experiments in inclined pipes, it has been observed that for significant ranges of Fr and Re cos β/Fr, a two-layer, stratified flow develops with the heavier fluid moving at the bottom of the pipe. Due to significant inertial effects, thin-film/lubrication models developed for laminar, viscous flows are not effective for predicting these flows. Here we develop a displacement model that addresses this shortcoming. The complete model for the displacement flow consists of mass and momentum equations for each fluid, resulting in a set of four non-linear equations. By integrating over each layer and eliminating the pressure gradient, we reduce the system to two equations for the area and mean velocity of the heavy fluid layer. The wall and interfacial stresses appear as source terms in the reduced system. The final system of equations is solved numerically using a robust, shock-capturing scheme. The equations are stabilized to remove non-physical instabilities. A linear stability analysis is able to predict the onset of instabilities at the interface and together with numerical solution, is used to study displacement effectiveness over different parametric regimes. Backflow and instability onset predictions are made for different viscosity ratios.

Modeling the early evolution of massive OB stars with an experimental wind routine. The first bi-stability jump and the angular momentum loss problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keszthelyi, Z.; Puls, J.; Wade, G. A.

2017-02-01

Context. Stellar evolution models of massive stars are very sensitive to the adopted mass-loss scheme. The magnitude and evolution of mass-loss rates significantly affect the main sequence evolution, and the properties of post-main sequence objects, including their rotational velocities. Aims: Driven by potential discrepancies between theoretically predicted and observationally derived mass-loss rates in the OB star range, we aim in particular to investigate the response to mass-loss rates that are lower than currently adopted, in parallel with the mass-loss behavior at the "first" bi-stability jump. Methods: We performed 1D hydrodynamical model calculations of single 20-60 M⊙ Galactic (Z = 0.014) stars where the effects of stellar winds are already significant in the main sequence phase. We have developed an experimental wind routine to examine the behavior and response of the models under the influence of different mass-loss rates. This observationally guided, simple and flexible wind routine is not a new mass-loss description but a useful tool based on the wind-momentum luminosity relation and other scaling relations, and provides a meaningful base for various tests and comparisons. Results: The main result of this study indicates a dichotomy between solutions of currently debated problems regarding mass-loss rates of hot massive stars. In a fully diffusive approach, and for commonly adopted initial rotational velocities, lower mass-loss rates than theoretically predicted require to invoke an additional source of angular momentum loss (either due to bi-stability braking, or yet unidentified) to brake down surface rotational velocities. On the other hand, a large jump in the mass-loss rates due to the bi-stability mechanism (a factor of 5-7 predicted by Vink et al. (2000, A&A, 362, 295), but a factor of 10-20 in modern models of massive stars) is challenged by observational results, and might be avoided if the early mass-loss rates agreed with the theoretically predicted values. Conclusions: We conclude that simultaneously adopting lower mass-loss rates and a significantly smaller jump in the mass-loss rates over the bi-stability region (both compared to presently used prescriptions) would require an additional mechanism for angular momentum loss to be present in massive stars. Otherwise, the observed rotational velocities of a large population of B supergiants, that are thought to be the evolutionary descendants of O stars, would remain unexplained.

Feature Selection Methods for Zero-Shot Learning of Neural Activity

PubMed Central

Caceres, Carlos A.; Roos, Matthew J.; Rupp, Kyle M.; Milsap, Griffin; Crone, Nathan E.; Wolmetz, Michael E.; Ratto, Christopher R.

2017-01-01

Dimensionality poses a serious challenge when making predictions from human neuroimaging data. Across imaging modalities, large pools of potential neural features (e.g., responses from particular voxels, electrodes, and temporal windows) have to be related to typically limited sets of stimuli and samples. In recent years, zero-shot prediction models have been introduced for mapping between neural signals and semantic attributes, which allows for classification of stimulus classes not explicitly included in the training set. While choices about feature selection can have a substantial impact when closed-set accuracy, open-set robustness, and runtime are competing design objectives, no systematic study of feature selection for these models has been reported. Instead, a relatively straightforward feature stability approach has been adopted and successfully applied across models and imaging modalities. To characterize the tradeoffs in feature selection for zero-shot learning, we compared correlation-based stability to several other feature selection techniques on comparable data sets from two distinct imaging modalities: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Electrocorticography. While most of the feature selection methods resulted in similar zero-shot prediction accuracies and spatial/spectral patterns of selected features, there was one exception; A novel feature/attribute correlation approach was able to achieve those accuracies with far fewer features, suggesting the potential for simpler prediction models that yield high zero-shot classification accuracy. PMID:28690513

Electrostatics, structure prediction, and the energy landscapes for protein folding and binding.

PubMed

Tsai, Min-Yeh; Zheng, Weihua; Balamurugan, D; Schafer, Nicholas P; Kim, Bobby L; Cheung, Margaret S; Wolynes, Peter G

2016-01-01

While being long in range and therefore weakly specific, electrostatic interactions are able to modulate the stability and folding landscapes of some proteins. The relevance of electrostatic forces for steering the docking of proteins to each other is widely acknowledged, however, the role of electrostatics in establishing specifically funneled landscapes and their relevance for protein structure prediction are still not clear. By introducing Debye-Hückel potentials that mimic long-range electrostatic forces into the Associative memory, Water mediated, Structure, and Energy Model (AWSEM), a transferable protein model capable of predicting tertiary structures, we assess the effects of electrostatics on the landscapes of thirteen monomeric proteins and four dimers. For the monomers, we find that adding electrostatic interactions does not improve structure prediction. Simulations of ribosomal protein S6 show, however, that folding stability depends monotonically on electrostatic strength. The trend in predicted melting temperatures of the S6 variants agrees with experimental observations. Electrostatic effects can play a range of roles in binding. The binding of the protein complex KIX-pKID is largely assisted by electrostatic interactions, which provide direct charge-charge stabilization of the native state and contribute to the funneling of the binding landscape. In contrast, for several other proteins, including the DNA-binding protein FIS, electrostatics causes frustration in the DNA-binding region, which favors its binding with DNA but not with its protein partner. This study highlights the importance of long-range electrostatics in functional responses to problems where proteins interact with their charged partners, such as DNA, RNA, as well as membranes. © 2015 The Protein Society.

Universal method to calculate the stability, electronegativity, and hardness of dianions.

PubMed

von Szentpály, László

2010-10-14

The electronic stability of gas-phase dianions of arbitrary size, X(2-), is determined by the first universal method to calculate second electron affinities, A(2). The model expresses A(2,calc) = A(1) - (7/6)η(0) by the first electron affinity, A(1), and chemical hardness, η(0), of the neutral "grandparent" species. A comparison with 37 reference data of atoms, molecules, superatoms, and clusters yields A(2,ref) = 1.004A(2,calc) - 0.023 eV, with a mean unsigned deviation of MUD = 0.095 eV and a correlation coefficient of R = 0.9987. Predictions of second electron affinities are given for a further 24 species. The universality of the model is apparent from the broad variety of compounds formed by 30 diverse elements. The electronegativity and hardness of dianions are determined for the first time as χ(X(2-)) = A(2) and η(X(2-)) = (7/12)η(0), respectively. Pearson and Parr's operational assumption regarding the hardness of anionic bases for the hard-soft acid-base (HSAB) principle is rationalized, and predictions for hard and soft dianionic bases are presented. For trianions, first criteria and predictions for electronic stability are given and require A(1) > (7/4)η(0).

Unstalled flutter stability predictions and comparisons to test data for a composite prop-fan model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turnberg, J. E.

1986-01-01

The aeroelastic stability analyses for three graphite/epoxy composite Prop-Fan designs and post-test stability analysis for one of the designs, the SR-3C-X2 are presented. It was shown that Prop-Fan stability can be effectively analyzed using the F203 modal aeroelastic stability analysis developed at Hamilton Standard and that first mode torsion-bending coupling has a direct effect on blade stability. Positive first mode torsion-bending coupling is a destabilizing factor and the minimization of this parameter will increase Prop-Fan stability. It was also shown that Prop-Fan stability analysis using F203 is sensitive to the blade modal data used as input. Calculated blade modal properties varied significantly with the structural analysis used, and these variations are reflected in the F203 calculations.

Physically-based slope stability modelling and parameter sensitivity: a case study in the Quitite and Papagaio catchments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima Neves Seefelder, Carolina; Mergili, Martin

2016-04-01

We use the software tools r.slope.stability and TRIGRS to produce factor of safety and slope failure susceptibility maps for the Quitite and Papagaio catchments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The key objective of the work consists in exploring the sensitivity of the geotechnical (r.slope.stability) and geohydraulic (TRIGRS) parameterization on the model outcomes in order to define suitable parameterization strategies for future slope stability modelling. The two landslide-prone catchments Quitite and Papagaio together cover an area of 4.4 km², extending between 12 and 995 m a.s.l. The study area is dominated by granitic bedrock and soil depths of 1-3 m. Ranges of geotechnical and geohydraulic parameters are derived from literature values. A landslide inventory related to a rainfall event in 1996 (250 mm in 48 hours) is used for model evaluation. We attempt to identify those combinations of effective cohesion and effective internal friction angle yielding the best correspondence with the observed landslide release areas in terms of the area under the ROC Curve (AUCROC), and in terms of the fraction of the area affected by the release of landslides. Thereby we test multiple parameter combinations within defined ranges to derive the slope failure susceptibility (fraction of tested parameter combinations yielding a factor of safety smaller than 1). We use the tool r.slope.stability (comparing the infinite slope stability model and an ellipsoid-based sliding surface model) to test and to optimize the geotechnical parameters, and TRIGRS (a coupled hydraulic-infinite slope stability model) to explore the sensitivity of the model results to the geohydraulic parameters. The model performance in terms of AUCROC is insensitive to the variation of the geotechnical parameterization within much of the tested ranges. Assuming fully saturated soils, r.slope.stability produces rather conservative predictions, whereby the results yielded with the sliding surface model are more conservative than those yielded with the infinite slope stability model. The sensitivity of AUCROC to variations in the geohydraulic parameters remains small as long as the calculated degree of saturation of the soils is sufficient to result in the prediction of a significant amount of landslide release pixels. Due to the poor sensitivity of AUCROC to variations of the geotechnical and geohydraulic parameters it is hard to optimize the parameters by means of statistics. Instead, the results produced with many different combinations of parameters correspond reasonably well with the distribution of the observed landslide release areas, even though they vary considerably in terms of their conservativeness. Considering the uncertainty inherent in all geotechnical and geohydraulic data, and the impossibility to capture the spatial distribution of the parameters by means of laboratory tests in sufficient detail, we conclude that landslide susceptibility maps yielded by catchment-scale physically-based models should not be interpreted in absolute terms. Building on the assumption that our findings are generally valid, we suggest that efforts to develop better strategies for dealing with the uncertainties in the spatial variation of the key parameters should be given priority in future slope stability modelling efforts.

Skeletal assessment with finite element analysis: relevance, pitfalls and interpretation.

PubMed

Campbell, Graeme Michael; Glüer, Claus-C

2017-07-01

Finite element models simulate the mechanical response of bone under load, enabling noninvasive assessment of strength. Models generated from quantitative computed tomography (QCT) incorporate the geometry and spatial distribution of bone mineral density (BMD) to simulate physiological and traumatic loads as well as orthopaedic implant behaviour. The present review discusses the current strengths and weakness of finite element models for application to skeletal biomechanics. In cadaver studies, finite element models provide better estimations of strength compared to BMD. Data from clinical studies are encouraging; however, the superiority of finite element models over BMD measures for fracture prediction has not been shown conclusively, and may be sex and site dependent. Therapeutic effects on bone strength are larger than for BMD; however, model validation has only been performed on untreated bone. High-resolution modalities and novel image processing methods may enhance the structural representation and predictive ability. Despite extensive use of finite element models to study orthopaedic implant stability, accurate simulation of the bone-implant interface and fracture progression remains a significant challenge. Skeletal finite element models provide noninvasive assessments of strength and implant stability. Improved structural representation and implant surface interaction may enable more accurate models of fragility in the future.

Development of an accident duration prediction model on the Korean Freeway Systems.

PubMed

Chung, Younshik

2010-01-01

Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents.

Three year stability of Five-Factor Model personality traits in relation to changes in symptom levels in patients with schizophrenia or related disorders.

PubMed

Boyette, Lindy-Lou; Nederlof, Jan; Meijer, Carin; de Boer, Froukje; de Haan, Lieuwe

2015-09-30

Five-Factor Model (FFM) personality traits are related to a wide range of clinical outcome in patients with psychotic disorders. However, it is not sufficiently clear whether psychotic illness, particularly fluctuation in negative symptoms and psychotic relapse, affects personality. The current study examined the 3-year temporal stability of FFM traits in 91 patients with non-affective psychotic disorders with a maximum duration of illness of 10 years and 32 control subjects without a (family member with) a diagnosis of psychotic illness. In patients, change in negative symptoms predicted changes in Neuroticism and (inversely) in Extraversion and Openness. However, when correcting for depressive symptoms, negative symptoms no longer predicted change in any FFM trait. Clinical characteristics, such as psychotic relapse, were also not found to be related to change in FFM traits. Patients showed a slight increase in Conscientiousness levels, the other FFM traits showed mean-level stability. Rank-order stability of the FFM traits was moderate to strong, although weaker for Neuroticism in patients. Our findings indicate that psychotic symptoms exert limited effect on the stability of FFM traits in patients with psychotic disorders. Consistent with general population findings, one should guard against state-trait confusion between Neuroticism/Extraversion and depression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hybrid rocket engine, theoretical model and experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chelaru, Teodor-Viorel; Mingireanu, Florin

2011-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to build a theoretical model for the hybrid rocket engine/motor and to validate it using experimental results. The work approaches the main problems of the hybrid motor: the scalability, the stability/controllability of the operating parameters and the increasing of the solid fuel regression rate. At first, we focus on theoretical models for hybrid rocket motor and compare the results with already available experimental data from various research groups. A primary computation model is presented together with results from a numerical algorithm based on a computational model. We present theoretical predictions for several commercial hybrid rocket motors, having different scales and compare them with experimental measurements of those hybrid rocket motors. Next the paper focuses on tribrid rocket motor concept, which by supplementary liquid fuel injection can improve the thrust controllability. A complementary computation model is also presented to estimate regression rate increase of solid fuel doped with oxidizer. Finally, the stability of the hybrid rocket motor is investigated using Liapunov theory. Stability coefficients obtained are dependent on burning parameters while the stability and command matrixes are identified. The paper presents thoroughly the input data of the model, which ensures the reproducibility of the numerical results by independent researchers.

Experimental Investigation of the Effect of Vertical-tail Size and Length and of Fuselage Shape and Length on the Static Lateral Stability Characteristics of a Model with 45 Degree Sweptback Wing and Tail Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Queijo, M J; Wolhart, Walter D

1951-01-01

An investigation was made to determine the effects of vertical-tail size and length and of fuselage shape and length on the static lateral stability characteristics of a model with wing and vertical tails having the quarter-chord lines swept back 45 degrees. The results indicate that the directional instability of the various isolated fuselages was about two-thirds as large as that predicted by classical theory.

Nuclear masses far from stability: the interplay of theory and experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.

1985-01-01

Mass models seek, by a variety of theoretical approaches, to reproduce the measured mass surface and to predict unmeasured masses beyond it. Subsequent measurements of these predicted nuclear masses permit an assessment of the quality of the mass predictions from the various models. Since the last comprehensive revision of the mass predictions (in the mid-to-late 1970's) over 300 new masses have been reported. Global analyses of these data have been performed by several numerical and graphical methods. These have identified both the strengths and weaknesses of the models. In some cases failures in individual models are distinctly apparent when themore » new mass data are plotted as functions of one or more selected physical parameters. Several examples will be given. Future theoretical efforts will also be discussed.« less

[Predictive model based multimetric index of macroinvertebrates for river health assessment].

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Yu, Hai Yan; Zhang, Ji Wei; Wang, Bei Xin; Chen, Qiu Wen

2017-06-18

Improving the stability of integrity of biotic index (IBI; i.e., multi-metric indices, MMI) across temporal and spatial scales is one of the most important issues in water ecosystem integrity bioassessment and water environment management. Using datasets of field-based macroinvertebrate and physicochemical variables and GIS-based natural predictors (e.g., geomorphology and climate) and land use variables collected at 227 river sites from 2004 to 2011 across the Zhejiang Province, China, we used random forests (RF) to adjust the effects of natural variations at temporal and spatial scales on macroinvertebrate metrics. We then developed natural variations adjusted (predictive) and unadjusted (null) MMIs and compared performance between them. The core me-trics selected for predictive and null MMIs were different from each other, and natural variations within core metrics in predictive MMI explained by RF models ranged between 11.4% and 61.2%. The predictive MMI was more precise and accurate, but less responsive and sensitive than null MMI. The multivariate nearest-neighbor test determined that 9 test sites and 1 most degraded site were flagged outside of the environmental space of the reference site network. We found that combination of predictive MMI developed by using predictive model and the nearest-neighbor test performed best and decreased risks of inferring type I (designating a water body as being in poor biological condition, when it was actually in good condition) and type II (designating a water body as being in good biological condition, when it was actually in poor condition) errors. Our results provided an effective method to improve the stability and performance of integrity of biotic index.

Food-web complexity, meta-community complexity and community stability.

PubMed

Mougi, A; Kondoh, M

2016-04-13

What allows interacting, diverse species to coexist in nature has been a central question in ecology, ever since the theoretical prediction that a complex community should be inherently unstable. Although the role of spatiality in species coexistence has been recognized, its application to more complex systems has been less explored. Here, using a meta-community model of food web, we show that meta-community complexity, measured by the number of local food webs and their connectedness, elicits a self-regulating, negative-feedback mechanism and thus stabilizes food-web dynamics. Moreover, the presence of meta-community complexity can give rise to a positive food-web complexity-stability effect. Spatiality may play a more important role in stabilizing dynamics of complex, real food webs than expected from ecological theory based on the models of simpler food webs.

Evaluating structure selection in the hydrothermal growth of FeS 2 pyrite and marcasite

DOE PAGES

Kitchaev, Daniil A.; Ceder, Gerbrand

2016-12-14

While the ab initio prediction of the properties of solids and their optimization towards new proposed materials is becoming established, little predictive theory exists as to which metastable materials can be made and how, impeding their experimental realization. Here we propose a quasi-thermodynamic framework for predicting the hydrothermal synthetic accessibility of metastable materials and apply this model to understanding the phase selection between the pyrite and marcasite polymorphs of FeS 2. We demonstrate that phase selection in this system can be explained by the surface stability of the two phases as a function of ambient pH within nano-size regimes relevantmore » to nucleation. This result suggests that a first-principles understanding of nano-size phase stability in realistic synthesis environments can serve to explain or predict the synthetic accessibility of structural polymorphs, providing a guideline to experimental synthesis via efficient computational materials design.« less

Nonlinear modal resonances in low-gravity slosh-spacecraft systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Lee D.

1991-01-01

Nonlinear models of low gravity slosh, when coupled to spacecraft vibrations, predict intense nonlinear eigenfrequency shifts at zero gravity. These nonlinear frequency shifts are due to internal quadratic and cubic resonances between fluid slosh modes and spacecraft vibration modes. Their existence has been verified experimentally, and they cannot be correctly modeled by approximate, uncoupled nonlinear models, such as pendulum mechanical analogs. These predictions mean that linear slosh assumptions for spacecraft vibration models can be invalid, and may lead to degraded control system stability and performance. However, a complete nonlinear modal analysis will predict the correct dynamic behavior. This paper presents the analytical basis for these results, and discusses the effect of internal resonances on the nonlinear coupled response at zero gravity.

Development of an integrated model for heat transfer and dynamic growth of Clostridium perfringens during the cooling of cooked boneless ham.

PubMed

Amézquita, A; Weller, C L; Wang, L; Thippareddi, H; Burson, D E

2005-05-25

Numerous small meat processors in the United States have difficulties complying with the stabilization performance standards for preventing growth of Clostridium perfringens by 1 log10 cycle during cooling of ready-to-eat (RTE) products. These standards were established by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of the US Department of Agriculture in 1999. In recent years, several attempts have been made to develop predictive models for growth of C. perfringens within the range of cooling temperatures included in the FSIS standards. Those studies mainly focused on microbiological aspects, using hypothesized cooling rates. Conversely, studies dealing with heat transfer models to predict cooling rates in meat products do not address microbial growth. Integration of heat transfer relationships with C. perfringens growth relationships during cooling of meat products has been very limited. Therefore, a computer simulation scheme was developed to analyze heat transfer phenomena and temperature-dependent C. perfringens growth during cooling of cooked boneless cured ham. The temperature history of ham was predicted using a finite element heat diffusion model. Validation of heat transfer predictions used experimental data collected in commercial meat-processing facilities. For C. perfringens growth, a dynamic model was developed using Baranyi's nonautonomous differential equation. The bacterium's growth model was integrated into the computer program using predicted temperature histories as input values. For cooling cooked hams from 66.6 degrees C to 4.4 degrees C using forced air, the maximum deviation between predicted and experimental core temperature data was 2.54 degrees C. Predicted C. perfringens growth curves obtained from dynamic modeling showed good agreement with validated results for three different cooling scenarios. Mean absolute values of relative errors were below 6%, and deviations between predicted and experimental cell counts were within 0.37 log10 CFU/g. For a cooling process which was in exact compliance with the FSIS stabilization performance standards, a mean net growth of 1.37 log10 CFU/g was predicted. This study introduced the combination of engineering modeling and microbiological modeling as a useful quantitative tool for general food safety applications, such as risk assessment and hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) plans.

A theoretical evaluation of rigid baffles in suppression of combustion instability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, M. R.; Mitchell, C. E.

1976-01-01

An analytical technique for the prediction of the effects of rigid baffles on the stability of liquid propellant combustors is presented. A three dimensional combustor model characterized by a concentrated combustion source at the chamber injector and a constant Mach number nozzle is used. The linearized partial differential equations describing the unsteady flow field are solved by an eigenfunction matching method. Boundary layer corrections to this unsteady flow are used to evaluate viscous and turbulence effects within the flow. An integral stability relationship is then employed to predict the decay rate of the oscillations. Results show that sufficient dissipation exists to indicate that the proper mechanism of baffle damping is a fluid dynamic loss. The response of the dissipation model to varying baffle blade length, mean flow Mach number and oscillation amplitude is examined.

Ground vibration test of the XV-15 Tiltrotor Research Aircraft and pretest predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Studebaker, Karen; Abrego, Anita

1994-01-01

The first comprehensive ground vibration survey was performed on the XV-15 Tiltrotor Research Aircraft to measure the vibration modes of the airframe and to provide data critical for determining whirl flutter stability margins. The aircraft was suspended by the wings with bungee cords and cables. A NASTRAN finite element model was used in the design of the suspension system to minimize its interference with the wing modes. The primary objective of the test was to measure the dynamic characteristics of the wings and pylons for aeroelastic stability analysis. In addition, over 130 accelerometers were placed on the airframe to characterize the fuselage, wing, and tail vibration. Pretest predictions were made with the NASTRAN model as well as correlations with the test data. The results showed that the suspension system provided the isolation necessary for modal measurements.

Dealing with unquantifiable uncertainties in landslide modelling for urban risk reduction in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment can be used to guide decisions about the management of landslide risk, but its usefulness can be challenged by high levels of uncertainty in predicting landslide occurrence. Prediction uncertainty may be associated with the choice of model that is used to assess slope stability, the quality of the available input data, or a lack of knowledge of how future climatic and socio-economic changes may affect future landslide risk. While some of these uncertainties can be characterised by relatively well-defined probability distributions, for other uncertainties, such as those linked to climate change, no probability distribution is available to characterise them. This latter type of uncertainty, often referred to as deep uncertainty, means that robust policies need to be developed that are expected to perform acceptably well over a wide range of future conditions. In our study the impact of deep uncertainty on slope stability predictions is assessed in a quantitative and structured manner using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM). In particular, we use several GSA methods including the Method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Classification and Regression Trees (CART), as well as advanced visualization tools, to assess the combination of conditions that may lead to slope failure. Our example application is a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates during the hurricane season, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. Rapid unplanned urbanisation and changing climate may further exacerbate landslide risk in the future. Our example shows how we can gain useful information in the presence of deep uncertainty by combining physically based models with GSA in a scenario discovery framework.

Multivariate linear regression analysis to identify general factors for quantitative predictions of implant stability quotient values

PubMed Central

Huang, Hairong; Xu, Zanzan; Shao, Xianhong; Wismeijer, Daniel; Sun, Ping; Wang, Jingxiao

2017-01-01

Objectives This study identified potential general influencing factors for a mathematical prediction of implant stability quotient (ISQ) values in clinical practice. Methods We collected the ISQ values of 557 implants from 2 different brands (SICace and Osstem) placed by 2 surgeons in 336 patients. Surgeon 1 placed 329 SICace implants, and surgeon 2 placed 113 SICace implants and 115 Osstem implants. ISQ measurements were taken at T1 (immediately after implant placement) and T2 (before dental restoration). A multivariate linear regression model was used to analyze the influence of the following 11 candidate factors for stability prediction: sex, age, maxillary/mandibular location, bone type, immediate/delayed implantation, bone grafting, insertion torque, I-stage or II-stage healing pattern, implant diameter, implant length and T1-T2 time interval. Results The need for bone grafting as a predictor significantly influenced ISQ values in all three groups at T1 (weight coefficients ranging from -4 to -5). In contrast, implant diameter consistently influenced the ISQ values in all three groups at T2 (weight coefficients ranging from 3.4 to 4.2). Other factors, such as sex, age, I/II-stage implantation and bone type, did not significantly influence ISQ values at T2, and implant length did not significantly influence ISQ values at T1 or T2. Conclusions These findings provide a rational basis for mathematical models to quantitatively predict the ISQ values of implants in clinical practice. PMID:29084260

Advanced Booster Liquid Engine Combustion Stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Kevin; Gentz, Steve; Nettles, Mindy

2015-01-01

Combustion instability is a phenomenon in liquid rocket engines caused by complex coupling between the time-varying combustion processes and the fluid dynamics in the combustor. Consequences of the large pressure oscillations associated with combustion instability often cause significant hardware damage and can be catastrophic. The current combustion stability assessment tools are limited by the level of empiricism in many inputs and embedded models. This limited predictive capability creates significant uncertainty in stability assessments. This large uncertainty then increases hardware development costs due to heavy reliance on expensive and time-consuming testing.

Understanding the colloidal dispersion stability of 1D and 2D materials: Perspectives from molecular simulations and theoretical modeling.

PubMed

Lin, Shangchao; Shih, Chih-Jen; Sresht, Vishnu; Govind Rajan, Ananth; Strano, Michael S; Blankschtein, Daniel

2017-06-01

The colloidal dispersion stability of 1D and 2D materials in the liquid phase is critical for scalable nano-manufacturing, chemical modification, composites production, and deployment as conductive inks or nanofluids. Here, we review recent computational and theoretical studies carried out by our group to model the dispersion stability of 1D and 2D materials, including single-walled carbon nanotubes, graphene, and graphene oxide in aqueous surfactant solutions or organic solvents. All-atomistic (AA) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can probe the molecular level details of the adsorption morphology of surfactants and solvents around these materials, as well as quantify the interaction energy between the nanomaterials mediated by surfactants or solvents. Utilizing concepts from reaction kinetics and diffusion, one can directly predict the rate constants for the aggregation kinetics and dispersion life times using MD outputs. Furthermore, the use of coarse-grained (CG) MD simulations allows quantitative prediction of surfactant adsorption isotherms. Combined with the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, the Langmuir isotherm, and the DLVO theory, one can directly use CGMD outputs to: (i) predict electrostatic potentials around the nanomaterial, (ii) correlate surfactant surface coverages with surfactant concentrations in the bulk dispersion medium, and (iii) determine energy barriers against coagulation. Finally, we discuss challenges associated with studying emerging 2D materials, such as, hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN), phosphorene, and transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs), including molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ). An outlook is provided to address these challenges with plans to develop force-field parameters for MD simulations to enable predictive modeling of emerging 2D materials in the liquid phase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of in situ microstructure measurements to different turbulence closure schemes in a 3-D numerical ocean circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Andrea; Doglioli, Andrea M.; Marsaleix, Patrick; Petrenko, Anne A.

2017-12-01

In situ measurements of kinetic energy dissipation rate ε and estimates of eddy viscosity KZ from the Gulf of Lion (NW Mediterranean Sea) are used to assess the ability of k - ɛ and k - ℓ closure schemes to predict microscale turbulence in a 3-D numerical ocean circulation model. Two different surface boundary conditions are considered in order to investigate their influence on each closure schemes' performance. The effect of two types of stability functions and optical schemes on the k - ɛ scheme is also explored. Overall, the 3-D model predictions are much closer to the in situ data in the surface mixed layer as opposed to below it. Above the mixed layer depth, we identify one model's configuration that outperforms all the other ones. Such a configuration employs a k - ɛ scheme with Canuto A stability functions, surface boundary conditions parameterizing wave breaking and an appropriate photosynthetically available radiation attenuation length. Below the mixed layer depth, reliability is limited by the model's resolution and the specification of a hard threshold on the minimum turbulent kinetic energy.

Theoretical prediction of the energy stability of graphene nanoblisters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glukhova, O. E.; Slepchenkov, M. M.; Barkov, P. V.

2018-04-01

The paper presents the results of a theoretical prediction of the energy stability of graphene nanoblisters with various geometrical parameters. As a criterion for the evaluation of the stability of investigated carbon objects we propose to consider the value of local stress of the nanoblister atomic grid. Numerical evaluation of stresses experienced by atoms of the graphene blister framework was carried out by means of an original method for calculation of local stresses that is based on energy approach. Atomistic models of graphene nanoblisters corresponding to the natural experiment data were built for the first time in this work. New physical regularities of the influence of topology on the thermodynamic stability of nanoblisters were established as a result of the analysis of the numerical experiment data. We built the distribution of local stresses for graphene blister structures, whose atomic grid contains a variety of structural defects. We have shown how the concentration and location of defects affect the picture of the distribution of the maximum stresses experienced by the atoms of the nanoblisters.

Cellular and dendritic growth in a binary melt - A marginal stability approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laxmanan, V.

1986-01-01

A simple model for the constrained growth of an array of cells or dendrites in a binary alloy in the presence of an imposed positive temperature gradient in the liquid is proposed, with the dendritic or cell tip radius calculated using the marginal stability criterion of Langer and Muller-Krumbhaar (1977). This approach, an approach adopting the ad hoc assumption of minimum undercooling at the cell or dendrite tip, and an approach based on the stability criterion of Trivedi (1980) all predict tip radii to within 30 percent of each other, and yield a simple relationship between the tip radius and the growth conditions. Good agreement is found between predictions and data obtained in a succinonitrile-acetone system, and under the present experimental conditions, the dendritic tip stability parameter value is found to be twice that obtained previously, possibly due to a transition in morphology from a cellular structure with just a few side branches, to a more fully developed dendritic structure.

Multi-model predictive control based on LMI: from the adaptation of the state-space model to the analytic description of the control law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falugi, P.; Olaru, S.; Dumur, D.

2010-08-01

This article proposes an explicit robust predictive control solution based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The considered predictive control strategy uses different local descriptions of the system dynamics and uncertainties and thus allows the handling of less conservative input constraints. The computed control law guarantees constraint satisfaction and asymptotic stability. The technique is effective for a class of nonlinear systems embedded into polytopic models. A detailed discussion of the procedures which adapt the partition of the state space is presented. For the practical implementation the construction of suitable (explicit) descriptions of the control law are described upon concrete algorithms.

Flash Nanoprecipitation: Prediction and Enhancement of Particle Stability via Drug Structure

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Flash nanoprecipitation (FNP) can generate hydrophobic drug nanoparticles in ∼100 nm with a much higher drug loading (e.g., > 40 wt %) than traditional nanocarriers (e.g., < 20 wt %). This paper studies the effects of drug molecules on nanoparticle stability made via FNP and demonstrates that chemically bonding a drug compound (e.g., paclitaxel) with a cleavable hydrophobic moiety of organosilicate (e.g., triethoxysilicate) is able to enhance the particle size stability. A nonionic amphiphilic diblock copolymer, poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid)-block-poly(ethylene glycol) (PLGA-b-PEG), is used as a model surfactant to provide steric stabilization. The experiments here show that the lower the drug solubility in the aqueous medium, the more stable the particles in terms of Ostwald ripening, which are consistent with the prediction by the LSW theory. The initial particle size distribution is sufficiently narrow and of insignificance to Ostwald ripening. To correlate the particle stability with hydrophobicity, this study introduces the n-octanol/water partition coefficient (LogP), a hydrophobicity indication, into the FNP technique. A comparison of various drugs and their analogues shows that LogP of a drug is a better hydrophobicity indication than the solubility parameter (δ) and correlates well with the particle stability. Empirically, with ACDLogP > ∼12, nanoparticles have good stability; with ∼2 < ACDLogP < ∼9, nanoparticles show fast Ostwald ripening and interparticle recrystallization; with ACDLogP < ∼2, the drug is very likely difficult to form nanoparticles. This rule creates a quick way to predict particle stability for a randomly selected drug structure and helps to enable a fast preclinical drug screen. PMID:24484077

More than mere numbers: the impact of lethal control on the social stability of a top-order predator.

PubMed

Wallach, Arian D; Ritchie, Euan G; Read, John; O'Neill, Adam J

2009-09-02

Population control of socially complex species may have profound ecological implications that remain largely invisible if only their abundance is considered. Here we discuss the effects of control on a socially complex top-order predator, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo). Since European occupation of Australia, dingoes have been controlled over much of the continent. Our aim was to investigate the effects of control on their abundance and social stability. We hypothesized that dingo abundance and social stability are not linearly related, and proposed a theoretical model in which dingo populations may fluctuate between three main states: (A) below carrying capacity and socially fractured, (B) above carrying capacity and socially fractured, or (C) at carrying capacity and socially stable. We predicted that lethal control would drive dingoes into the unstable states A or B, and that relaxation of control would allow recovery towards C. We tested our predictions by surveying relative abundance (track density) and indicators of social stability (scent-marking and howling) at seven sites in the arid zone subject to differing degrees of control. We also monitored changes in dingo abundance and social stability following relaxation and intensification of control. Sites where dingoes had been controlled within the previous two years were characterized by low scent-marking activity, but abundance was similar at sites with and without control. Signs of social stability steadily increased the longer an area was allowed to recover from control, but change in abundance did not follow a consistent path. Comparison of abundance and stability among all sites and years demonstrated that control severely fractures social groups, but that the effect of control on abundance was neither consistent nor predictable. Management decisions involving large social predators must therefore consider social stability to ensure their conservation and ecological functioning.

Structure-based activity prediction of CYP21A2 stability variants: A survey of available gene variations.

PubMed

Bruque, Carlos D; Delea, Marisol; Fernández, Cecilia S; Orza, Juan V; Taboas, Melisa; Buzzalino, Noemí; Espeche, Lucía D; Solari, Andrea; Luccerini, Verónica; Alba, Liliana; Nadra, Alejandro D; Dain, Liliana

2016-12-14

Congenital adrenal hyperplasia due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency accounts for 90-95% of CAH cases. In this work we performed an extensive survey of mutations and SNPs modifying the coding sequence of the CYP21A2 gene. Using bioinformatic tools and two plausible CYP21A2 structures as templates, we initially classified all known mutants (n = 343) according to their putative functional impacts, which were either reported in the literature or inferred from structural models. We then performed a detailed analysis on the subset of mutations believed to exclusively impact protein stability. For those mutants, the predicted stability was calculated and correlated with the variant's expected activity. A high concordance was obtained when comparing our predictions with available in vitro residual activities and/or the patient's phenotype. The predicted stability and derived activity of all reported mutations and SNPs lacking functional assays (n = 108) were assessed. As expected, most of the SNPs (52/76) showed no biological implications. Moreover, this approach was applied to evaluate the putative synergy that could emerge when two mutations occurred in cis. In addition, we propose a putative pathogenic effect of five novel mutations, p.L107Q, p.L122R, p.R132H, p.P335L and p.H466fs, found in 21-hydroxylase deficient patients of our cohort.

Structure-based activity prediction of CYP21A2 stability variants: A survey of available gene variations

PubMed Central

Bruque, Carlos D.; Delea, Marisol; Fernández, Cecilia S.; Orza, Juan V.; Taboas, Melisa; Buzzalino, Noemí; Espeche, Lucía D.; Solari, Andrea; Luccerini, Verónica; Alba, Liliana; Nadra, Alejandro D.; Dain, Liliana

2016-01-01

Congenital adrenal hyperplasia due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency accounts for 90–95% of CAH cases. In this work we performed an extensive survey of mutations and SNPs modifying the coding sequence of the CYP21A2 gene. Using bioinformatic tools and two plausible CYP21A2 structures as templates, we initially classified all known mutants (n = 343) according to their putative functional impacts, which were either reported in the literature or inferred from structural models. We then performed a detailed analysis on the subset of mutations believed to exclusively impact protein stability. For those mutants, the predicted stability was calculated and correlated with the variant’s expected activity. A high concordance was obtained when comparing our predictions with available in vitro residual activities and/or the patient’s phenotype. The predicted stability and derived activity of all reported mutations and SNPs lacking functional assays (n = 108) were assessed. As expected, most of the SNPs (52/76) showed no biological implications. Moreover, this approach was applied to evaluate the putative synergy that could emerge when two mutations occurred in cis. In addition, we propose a putative pathogenic effect of five novel mutations, p.L107Q, p.L122R, p.R132H, p.P335L and p.H466fs, found in 21-hydroxylase deficient patients of our cohort. PMID:27966633

Modeling ferroelectric film properties and size effects from tetragonal interlayer in Hf1-xZrxO2 grains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Künneth, Christopher; Materlik, Robin; Kersch, Alfred

2017-05-01

Size effects from surface or interface energy play a pivotal role in stabilizing the ferroelectric phase in recently discovered thin film Zirconia-Hafnia. However, sufficient quantitative understanding has been lacking due to the interference with the stabilizing effect from dopants. For the important class of undoped Hf1-xZrxO2, a phase stability model based on free energy from Density functional theory (DFT) and surface energy values adapted to the sparse experimental and theoretical data has been successful to describe key properties of the available thin film data. Since surfaces and interfaces are prone to interference, the predictive capability of the model is surprising and directs to a hitherto undetected, underlying reason. New experimental data hint on the existence of an interlayer on the grain surface fixed in the tetragonal phase possibly shielding from external influence. To explore the consequences of such a mechanism, we develop an interface free energy model to include the fixed interlayer, generalize the grain model to include a grain radius distribution, calculate average polarization and permittivity, and compare the model with available experimental data. Since values for interface energies are sparse or uncertain, we obtain its values from minimizing the least square difference between predicted key parameters to experimental data in a global optimization. Since the detailed values for DFT energies depend on the chosen method, we repeat the search for different computed data sets and come out with quantitatively different but qualitatively consistent values for interface energies. The resulting values are physically very reasonable and the model is able to give qualitative prediction. On the other hand, the optimization reveals that the model is not able to fully capture the experimental data. We discuss possible physical effects and directions of research to possibly close this gap.

On the context-dependent scaling of consumer feeding rates.

PubMed

Barrios-O'Neill, Daniel; Kelly, Ruth; Dick, Jaimie T A; Ricciardi, Anthony; MacIsaac, Hugh J; Emmerson, Mark C

2016-06-01

The stability of consumer-resource systems can depend on the form of feeding interactions (i.e. functional responses). Size-based models predict interactions - and thus stability - based on consumer-resource size ratios. However, little is known about how interaction contexts (e.g. simple or complex habitats) might alter scaling relationships. Addressing this, we experimentally measured interactions between a large size range of aquatic predators (4-6400 mg over 1347 feeding trials) and an invasive prey that transitions among habitats: from the water column (3D interactions) to simple and complex benthic substrates (2D interactions). Simple and complex substrates mediated successive reductions in capture rates - particularly around the unimodal optimum - and promoted prey population stability in model simulations. Many real consumer-resource systems transition between 2D and 3D interactions, and along complexity gradients. Thus, Context-Dependent Scaling (CDS) of feeding interactions could represent an unrecognised aspect of food webs, and quantifying the extent of CDS might enhance predictive ecology. © The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Toward comparing experiment and theory for corroborative research on hingeless rotor stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, G.

1987-01-01

For flap lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations were conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasisteady aerodynamics theory with dynamic flow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode were emphasized. A soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades was tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 deg. The 1.62 m model rotor was untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. In combination with lag natural frequencies, collective pitch settings and flap lag coupling parameters, the data base comprises nearly 1200 test points (damping and frequency) in forward flight and 200 test points in hover. By computerized symbolic manipulation, a linear model was developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode identification. To help explain the correlation between theory and data it also predicted substall and stall regions of the rotor disk from equilibrium values. The correlation showed both the strengths and weaknesses of the theory in substall ((angle of attack) equal to or less than 12 deg).

Effects of topographic data quality on estimates of shallow slope stability using different regolith depth models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.

2017-01-01

Thickness of colluvium or regolith overlying bedrock or other consolidated materials is a major factor in determining stability of unconsolidated earth materials on steep slopes. Many efforts to model spatially distributed slope stability, for example to assess susceptibility to shallow landslides, have relied on estimates of constant thickness, constant depth, or simple models of thickness (or depth) based on slope and other topographic variables. Assumptions of constant depth or thickness rarely give satisfactory results. Geomorphologists have devised a number of different models to represent the spatial variability of regolith depth and applied them to various settings. I have applied some of these models that can be implemented numerically to different study areas with different types of terrain and tested the results against available depth measurements and landslide inventories. The areas include crystalline rocks of the Colorado Front Range, and gently dipping sedimentary rocks of the Oregon Coast Range. Model performance varies with model, terrain type, and with quality of the input topographic data. Steps in contour-derived 10-m digital elevation models (DEMs) introduce significant errors into the predicted distribution of regolith and landslides. Scan lines, facets, and other artifacts further degrade DEMs and model predictions. Resampling to a lower grid-cell resolution can mitigate effects of facets in lidar DEMs of areas where dense forest severely limits ground returns. Due to its higher accuracy and ability to penetrate vegetation, lidar-derived topography produces more realistic distributions of cover and potential landslides than conventional photogrammetrically derived topographic data.

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics.

PubMed

Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

2017-03-04

Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)₄ model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.

Predictive Modelling for Fisheries Management in the Colombian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beal, Jacob; Bennett, Sara

A group of Colombian indigenous communities and Amacayacu National Park are cooperating to make regulations for sustainable use of their shared natural resources, especially the fish populations. To aid this effort, we are modeling the interactions among these communities and their ecosystem with the objective of predicting the stability of regulations, identifying potential failure modes, and guiding investment of scarce resources. The goal is to improve the probability of actually achieving fair, sustainable and community-managed subsistence fishing in the region.

Integrated Technology Rotor Methodology Assessment Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnulty, Michael J. (Editor); Bousman, William G. (Editor)

1988-01-01

The conference proceedings contains 14 formal papers and the results of two panel discussions. In addition, a transcript of discussion that followed the paper presentations and panels is included. The papers are of two kinds. The first seven papers were directed specifically to the correlation of industry and government mathematical models with data for rotorcraft stability from six experiments. The remaining 7 papers dealt with related topics in the prediction of rotor aeroelastic or aeromechanical stability. The first of the panels provided an evaluation of the correlation that was shown between the mathematical models and the experimental data. The second panel addressed the general problems of the validation of mathematical models.

A comprehensive model to determine the effects of temperature and species fluctuations on reaction rates in turbulent reaction flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Magnotti, F.; Diskin, G.; Matulaitis, J.; Chinitz, W.

1984-01-01

The use of silane (SiH4) as an effective ignitor and flame stabilizing pilot fuel is well documented. A reliable chemical kinetic mechanism for prediction of its behavior at the conditions encountered in the combustor of a SCRAMJET engine was calculated. The effects of hydrogen addition on hydrocarbon ignition and flame stabilization as a means for reduction of lengthy ignition delays and reaction times were studied. The ranges of applicability of chemical kinetic models of hydrogen-air combustors were also investigated. The CHARNAL computer code was applied to the turbulent reaction rate modeling.

Orbital maneuvering engine feed system coupled stability investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, D. R.; Schuman, M. D.; Hunting, J. K.; Fertig, K. W.

1975-01-01

A digital computer model used to analyze and predict engine feed system coupled instabilities over a frequency range of 10 to 1000 Hz was developed and verified. The analytical approach to modeling the feed system hydrodynamics, combustion dynamics, chamber dynamics, and overall engineering model structure is described and the governing equations in each of the technical areas are presented. This is followed by a description of the generalized computer model, including formulation of the discrete subprograms and their integration into an overall engineering model structure. The operation and capabilities of the engineering model were verified by comparing the model's theoretical predictions with experimental data from an OMS-type engine with a known feed system/engine chugging history.

ECCD-induced tearing mode stabilization in coupled IPS/NIMROD/GENRAY HPC simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Thomas; Kruger, S. E.; Held, E. D.; Harvey, R. W.; Elwasif, W. R.

2012-03-01

We summarize ongoing developments toward an integrated, predictive model for determining optimal ECCD-based NTM stabilization strategies in ITER. We demonstrate the capability of the SWIM Project's Integrated Plasma Simulator (IPS) framework to choreograph multiple executions of, and data exchanges between, physics codes modeling various spatiotemporal scales of this coupled RF/MHD problem on several thousand HPC processors. As NIMROD evolves fluid equations to model bulk plasma behavior, self-consistent propagation/deposition of RF power in the ensuing plasma profiles is calculated by GENRAY. Data from both codes is then processed by computational geometry packages to construct the RF-induced quasilinear diffusion tensor; moments of this tensor (entering as additional terms in NIMROD's fluid equations due to the disparity in RF/MHD spatiotemporal scales) influence the dynamics of current, momentum, and energy evolution as well as the MHD closures. Initial results are shown to correctly capture the physics of magnetic island stabilization; we also discuss the development of a numerical plasma control system for active feedback stabilization of tearing modes.

Non-hydrostatic semi-elastic hybrid-coordinate SISL extension of HIRLAM. Part I: numerical scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rõõm, Rein; Männik, Aarne; Luhamaa, Andres

2007-10-01

Two-time-level, semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian (SISL) scheme is applied to the non-hydrostatic pressure coordinate equations, constituting a modified Miller-Pearce-White model, in hybrid-coordinate framework. Neutral background is subtracted in the initial continuous dynamics, yielding modified equations for geopotential, temperature and logarithmic surface pressure fluctuation. Implicit Lagrangian marching formulae for single time-step are derived. A disclosure scheme is presented, which results in an uncoupled diagnostic system, consisting of 3-D Poisson equation for omega velocity and 2-D Helmholtz equation for logarithmic pressure fluctuation. The model is discretized to create a non-hydrostatic extension to numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM. The discretization schemes, trajectory computation algorithms and interpolation routines, as well as the physical parametrization package are maintained from parent hydrostatic HIRLAM. For stability investigation, the derived SISL model is linearized with respect to the initial, thermally non-equilibrium resting state. Explicit residuals of the linear model prove to be sensitive to the relative departures of temperature and static stability from the reference state. Relayed on the stability study, the semi-implicit term in the vertical momentum equation is replaced to the implicit term, which results in stability increase of the model.

Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul

2011-01-01

Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.

Task II: Three-dimensional Rotating Stall Inception and Effects of Rotating Tip Clearance Asymmetry in Axial Compressors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suder, Kenneth (Technical Monitor); Tan, Choon-Sooi

2003-01-01

The effects of two types of flow non-uniformity on stall inception behavior were assessed with linearized stability analyses of two compressor flow models. Response to rotating tip clearance asymmetries induced by a whirling rotor shaft or rotor height variations were investigated with a two-dimensional flow model. A 3-D compressor model was also developed to study the stability of both full-span and part-span rotating stall modes in annular geometries with radial flow variations. The studies focussed on (1) understanding what compressor designs were sensitive to these types of circumferential and spanwise flow non-uniformities, and (2) situations where 2-D stability theories were inadequate because of 3-D flow effects. Rotating tip clearance non-uniformity caused the greatest performance loss for shafts whirling at the rotating stall frequency. A whirling shaft displacement of 1 percent chord caused the stalling mass flow to rise by as much as 10 percent and the peak pressure rise to decrease by 6 percent. These changes were an order of magnitude larger than for equivalent-sized stationary or rotor-locked clearance asymmetries. Spanwise flow non-uniformity always destabilized the compressor, so that 2-D models over-predicted that stall margin compared to 3-D theory. The difference increased for compressors with larger spanwise variations of characteristic slope and reduced characteristic curvature near the peak. Differences between 2-D and 3-D stall point predictions were generally unacceptable (2 - 4 percent of flow coefficient) for single-stage configurations, but were less than 1 percent for multistage compressors. 2-D analyses predicted the wrong stall mode for specific cases of radial inlet flow distortion, mismatching and annulus area contraction, where higher-order radial modes led to stall. The stability behavior of flows with circumferential or radial non-uniformity was unified through a single stability criterion. The stall point for both cases was set by the integral around the annulus of the pressure rise characteristic slope, weighted by the amplitude of the mode shape. For the case of steady circumferential variations, this criterion reduced to the integrated mean slope (IMS) condition associated with steady inlet distortions. The rotating tip clearance asymmetry model was also used to demonstrate the feasibility of actively controlling the shaft position to suppress rotating stall. In axisymmetric mean flow, this method only stabilized the first harmonic mode, increasing the operating range until surge or higher harmonic modes became unstable.

Aeroelastic stability analysis of a Darrieus wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popelka, D.

1982-02-01

An aeroelastic stability analysis was developed for predicting flutter instabilities on vertical axis wind turbines. The analytical model and mathematical formulation of the problem are described as well as the physical mechanism that creates flutter in Darrieus turbines. Theoretical results are compared with measured experimental data from flutter tests of the Sandia 2 Meter turbine. Based on this comparison, the analysis appears to be an adequate design evaluation tool.

Subunit association as the stabilizing determinant for archaeal methionine adenosyltransferases.

PubMed

Garrido, Francisco; Alfonso, Carlos; Taylor, John C; Markham, George D; Pajares, María A

2009-07-01

Archaea contain a class of methionine adenosyltransferases (MATs) that exhibit substantially higher stability than their mesophilic counterparts. Their sequences are highly divergent, but preserve the essential active site motifs of the family. We have investigated the origin of this increased stability using chemical denaturation experiments on Methanococcus jannaschii MAT (Mj-MAT) and mutants containing single tryptophans in place of tyrosine residues. The results from fluorescence, circular dichroism, hydrodynamic, and enzyme activity measurements showed that the higher stability of Mj-MAT derives largely from a tighter association of its subunits in the dimer. Local fluorescence changes, interpreted using secondary structure predictions, further identify the least stable structural elements as the C-terminal ends of beta-strands E2 and E6, and the N-terminus of E3. Dimer dissociation however requires a wider perturbation of the molecule. Additional analysis was initially hindered by the lack of crystal structures for archaeal MATs, a limitation that we overcame by construction of a 3D-homology model of Mj-MAT. This model predicts preservation of the chain topology and three-domain organization typical of this family, locates the least stable structural elements at the flat contact surface between monomers, and shows that alterations in all three domains are required for dimer dissociation.

The Linear Interaction Energy Method for the Prediction of Protein Stability Changes Upon Mutation

PubMed Central

Wickstrom, Lauren; Gallicchio, Emilio; Levy, Ronald M.

2011-01-01

The coupling of protein energetics and sequence changes is a critical aspect of computational protein design, as well as for the understanding of protein evolution, human disease, and drug resistance. In order to study the molecular basis for this coupling, computational tools must be sufficiently accurate and computationally inexpensive enough to handle large amounts of sequence data. We have developed a computational approach based on the linear interaction energy (LIE) approximation to predict the changes in the free energy of the native state induced by a single mutation. This approach was applied to a set of 822 mutations in 10 proteins which resulted in an average unsigned error of 0.82 kcal/mol and a correlation coefficient of 0.72 between the calculated and experimental ΔΔG values. The method is able to accurately identify destabilizing hot spot mutations however it has difficulty in distinguishing between stabilizing and destabilizing mutations due to the distribution of stability changes for the set of mutations used to parameterize the model. In addition, the model also performs quite well in initial tests on a small set of double mutations. Based on these promising results, we can begin to examine the relationship between protein stability and fitness, correlated mutations, and drug resistance. PMID:22038697

Thermodynamic stability of nanosized multicomponent bubbles/droplets: the square gradient theory and the capillary approach.

PubMed

Wilhelmsen, Øivind; Bedeaux, Dick; Kjelstrup, Signe; Reguera, David

2014-01-14

Formation of nanosized droplets/bubbles from a metastable bulk phase is connected to many unresolved scientific questions. We analyze the properties and stability of multicomponent droplets and bubbles in the canonical ensemble, and compare with single-component systems. The bubbles/droplets are described on the mesoscopic level by square gradient theory. Furthermore, we compare the results to a capillary model which gives a macroscopic description. Remarkably, the solutions of the square gradient model, representing bubbles and droplets, are accurately reproduced by the capillary model except in the vicinity of the spinodals. The solutions of the square gradient model form closed loops, which shows the inherent symmetry and connected nature of bubbles and droplets. A thermodynamic stability analysis is carried out, where the second variation of the square gradient description is compared to the eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix in the capillary description. The analysis shows that it is impossible to stabilize arbitrarily small bubbles or droplets in closed systems and gives insight into metastable regions close to the minimum bubble/droplet radii. Despite the large difference in complexity, the square gradient and the capillary model predict the same finite threshold sizes and very similar stability limits for bubbles and droplets, both for single-component and two-component systems.

Thermodynamic stability of nanosized multicomponent bubbles/droplets: The square gradient theory and the capillary approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilhelmsen, Øivind, E-mail: oivind.wilhelmsen@ntnu.no; Bedeaux, Dick; Kjelstrup, Signe

Formation of nanosized droplets/bubbles from a metastable bulk phase is connected to many unresolved scientific questions. We analyze the properties and stability of multicomponent droplets and bubbles in the canonical ensemble, and compare with single-component systems. The bubbles/droplets are described on the mesoscopic level by square gradient theory. Furthermore, we compare the results to a capillary model which gives a macroscopic description. Remarkably, the solutions of the square gradient model, representing bubbles and droplets, are accurately reproduced by the capillary model except in the vicinity of the spinodals. The solutions of the square gradient model form closed loops, which showsmore » the inherent symmetry and connected nature of bubbles and droplets. A thermodynamic stability analysis is carried out, where the second variation of the square gradient description is compared to the eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix in the capillary description. The analysis shows that it is impossible to stabilize arbitrarily small bubbles or droplets in closed systems and gives insight into metastable regions close to the minimum bubble/droplet radii. Despite the large difference in complexity, the square gradient and the capillary model predict the same finite threshold sizes and very similar stability limits for bubbles and droplets, both for single-component and two-component systems.« less

Using open source computational tools for predicting human metabolic stability and additional absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity properties.

PubMed

Gupta, Rishi R; Gifford, Eric M; Liston, Ted; Waller, Chris L; Hohman, Moses; Bunin, Barry A; Ekins, Sean

2010-11-01

Ligand-based computational models could be more readily shared between researchers and organizations if they were generated with open source molecular descriptors [e.g., chemistry development kit (CDK)] and modeling algorithms, because this would negate the requirement for proprietary commercial software. We initially evaluated open source descriptors and model building algorithms using a training set of approximately 50,000 molecules and a test set of approximately 25,000 molecules with human liver microsomal metabolic stability data. A C5.0 decision tree model demonstrated that CDK descriptors together with a set of Smiles Arbitrary Target Specification (SMARTS) keys had good statistics [κ = 0.43, sensitivity = 0.57, specificity = 0.91, and positive predicted value (PPV) = 0.64], equivalent to those of models built with commercial Molecular Operating Environment 2D (MOE2D) and the same set of SMARTS keys (κ = 0.43, sensitivity = 0.58, specificity = 0.91, and PPV = 0.63). Extending the dataset to ∼193,000 molecules and generating a continuous model using Cubist with a combination of CDK and SMARTS keys or MOE2D and SMARTS keys confirmed this observation. When the continuous predictions and actual values were binned to get a categorical score we observed a similar κ statistic (0.42). The same combination of descriptor set and modeling method was applied to passive permeability and P-glycoprotein efflux data with similar model testing statistics. In summary, open source tools demonstrated predictive results comparable to those of commercial software with attendant cost savings. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of open source descriptors and the opportunity for their use as a tool for organizations to share data precompetitively, avoiding repetition and assisting drug discovery.

Vehicular traffic noise prediction using soft computing approach.

PubMed

Singh, Daljeet; Nigam, S P; Agrawal, V P; Kumar, Maneek

2016-12-01

A new approach for the development of vehicular traffic noise prediction models is presented. Four different soft computing methods, namely, Generalized Linear Model, Decision Trees, Random Forests and Neural Networks, have been used to develop models to predict the hourly equivalent continuous sound pressure level, Leq, at different locations in the Patiala city in India. The input variables include the traffic volume per hour, percentage of heavy vehicles and average speed of vehicles. The performance of the four models is compared on the basis of performance criteria of coefficient of determination, mean square error and accuracy. 10-fold cross validation is done to check the stability of the Random Forest model, which gave the best results. A t-test is performed to check the fit of the model with the field data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum Lyapunov exponents as predictors of global gait stability: a modelling approach.

PubMed

Bruijn, Sjoerd M; Bregman, Daan J J; Meijer, Onno G; Beek, Peter J; van Dieën, Jaap H

2012-05-01

To examine the stability of human walking, methods such as local dynamic stability have been adopted from dynamical systems theory. Local dynamic stability is calculated by estimating maximal finite time Lyapunov exponents (λ(S) and λ(L)), which quantify how a system responds continuously to very small (i.e. "local") perturbations. However, it is unknown if, and to what extent, these measures are correlated to global stability, defined operationally as the probability of falling. We studied whether changes in probability of falling of a simple model of human walking (a so-called dynamic walker) could be predicted from maximum finite time Lyapunov exponents. We used an extended version of the simplest walking model with arced feet and a hip spring. This allowed us to change the probability of falling of the model by changing either the foot radius, the slope at which the model walks, the stiffness of the hip spring, or a combination of these factors. Results showed that λ(S) correlated fairly well with global stability, although this relationship was dependent upon differences in the distance between initial nearest neighbours on the divergence curve. A measure independent of such changes (the log(distance between initially nearest neighbours after 50 samples)) correlated better with global stability, and, more importantly, showed a more consistent relationship across conditions. In contrast, λ(L) showed either weak correlations, or correlations opposite to expected, thus casting doubt on the use of this measure as a predictor of global gait stability. Our findings support the use of λ(S), but not of λ(L), as measure of human gait stability. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fundamental Movement Skills Are More than Run, Throw and Catch: The Role of Stability Skills.

PubMed

Rudd, James R; Barnett, Lisa M; Butson, Michael L; Farrow, Damian; Berry, Jason; Polman, Remco C J

2015-01-01

In motor development literature fundamental movement skills are divided into three constructs: locomotive, object control and stability skills. Most fundamental movement skills research has focused on children's competency in locomotor and object control skills. The first aim of this study was to validate a test battery to assess the construct of stability skills, in children aged 6 to 10 (M age = 8.2, SD = 1.2). Secondly we assessed how the stability skills construct fitted into a model of fundamental movement skill. The Delphi method was used to select the stability skill battery. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to assess if the skills loaded onto the same construct and a new model of FMS was developed using structural equation modelling. Three postural control tasks were selected (the log roll, rock and back support) because they had good face and content validity. These skills also demonstrated good predictive validity with gymnasts scoring significantly better than children without gymnastic training and children from a high SES school performing better than those from a mid and low SES schools and the mid SES children scored better than the low SES children (all p < .05). Inter rater reliability tests were excellent for all three skills (ICC = 0.81, 0.87, 0.87) as was test re-test reliability (ICC 0.87-0.95). CFA provided good construct validity, and structural equation modelling revealed stability skills to be an independent factor in an overall FMS model which included locomotor (r = .88), object control (r = .76) and stability skills (r = .81). This study provides a rationale for the inclusion of stability skills in FMS assessment. The stability skills could be used alongside other FMS assessment tools to provide a holistic assessment of children's fundamental movement skills.

Interfacial Chemical Interactions in the (Alumina/Graphite/Al Alloys) System: Thermodynamic Modeling and Experimental Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelbstein, M.; Edry, I.; Froumin, N.; Frage, N.

2009-04-01

The stability of alumina-coated graphite couples in liquid Al is investigated in the 1373 to 1573 K temperature range. A thermodynamic model was carried out to determine the mechanisms controlling the couple stability and the effect of alloying Al with high melting point element for instance U (up to 3 at. pct). It was established that the dissolved uranium dose not play any role in the interfacial interactions and that the couple stability is governed by the interactions with Al resulting in the release of gaseous products. The experiments focused on wetting kinetics under conditions allowing for an in-situ reduction of the alumina coating by the liquid Al. The experimental results confirm the predictions of the thermodynamic analysis.

Stability of the Zagreb realization of the Carnegie-Mellon-Berkeley coupled-channels unitary model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osmanović, H.; Ceci, S.; Švarc, A.; Hadžimehmedović, M.; Stahov, J.

2011-09-01

In Hadžimehmedović [Phys. Rev. CPRVCAN0556-281310.1103/PhysRevC.84.035204 84, 035204 (2011)] we have used the Zagreb realization of Carnegie-Melon-Berkeley coupled-channel, unitary model as a tool for extracting pole positions from the world collection of partial-wave data, with the aim of eliminating model dependence in pole-search procedures. In order that the method is sensible, we in this paper discuss the stability of the method with respect to the strong variation of different model ingredients. We show that the Zagreb CMB procedure is very stable with strong variation of the model assumptions and that it can reliably predict the pole positions of the fitted partial-wave amplitudes.

Thermodynamic characterization of tandem mismatches found in naturally occurring RNA

PubMed Central

Christiansen, Martha E.; Znosko, Brent M.

2009-01-01

Although all sequence symmetric tandem mismatches and some sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches have been thermodynamically characterized and a model has been proposed to predict the stability of previously unmeasured sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches [Christiansen,M.E. and Znosko,B.M. (2008) Biochemistry, 47, 4329–4336], experimental thermodynamic data for frequently occurring tandem mismatches is lacking. Since experimental data is preferred over a predictive model, the thermodynamic parameters for 25 frequently occurring tandem mismatches were determined. These new experimental values, on average, are 1.0 kcal/mol different from the values predicted for these mismatches using the previous model. The data for the sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches reported here were then combined with the data for 72 sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches that were published previously, and the parameters used to predict the thermodynamics of previously unmeasured sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches were updated. The average absolute difference between the measured values and the values predicted using these updated parameters is 0.5 kcal/mol. This updated model improves the prediction for tandem mismatches that were predicted rather poorly by the previous model. This new experimental data and updated predictive model allow for more accurate calculations of the free energy of RNA duplexes containing tandem mismatches, and, furthermore, should allow for improved prediction of secondary structure from sequence. PMID:19509311

A model based on Rock-Eval thermal analysis to quantify the size of the centennially persistent organic carbon pool in temperate soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cécillon, Lauric; Baudin, François; Chenu, Claire; Houot, Sabine; Jolivet, Romain; Kätterer, Thomas; Lutfalla, Suzanne; Macdonald, Andy; van Oort, Folkert; Plante, Alain F.; Savignac, Florence; Soucémarianadin, Laure N.; Barré, Pierre

2018-05-01

Changes in global soil carbon stocks have considerable potential to influence the course of future climate change. However, a portion of soil organic carbon (SOC) has a very long residence time ( > 100 years) and may not contribute significantly to terrestrial greenhouse gas emissions during the next century. The size of this persistent SOC reservoir is presumed to be large. Consequently, it is a key parameter required for the initialization of SOC dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models, but there is considerable uncertainty in the methods used to quantify it. Thermal analysis methods provide cost-effective information on SOC thermal stability that has been shown to be qualitatively related to SOC biogeochemical stability. The objective of this work was to build the first quantitative model of the size of the centennially persistent SOC pool based on thermal analysis. We used a unique set of 118 archived soil samples from four agronomic experiments in northwestern Europe with long-term bare fallow and non-bare fallow treatments (e.g., manure amendment, cropland and grassland) as a sample set for which estimating the size of the centennially persistent SOC pool is relatively straightforward. At each experimental site, we estimated the average concentration of centennially persistent SOC and its uncertainty by applying a Bayesian curve-fitting method to the observed declining SOC concentration over the duration of the long-term bare fallow treatment. Overall, the estimated concentrations of centennially persistent SOC ranged from 5 to 11 g C kg-1 of soil (lowest and highest boundaries of four 95 % confidence intervals). Then, by dividing the site-specific concentrations of persistent SOC by the total SOC concentration, we could estimate the proportion of centennially persistent SOC in the 118 archived soil samples and the associated uncertainty. The proportion of centennially persistent SOC ranged from 0.14 (standard deviation of 0.01) to 1 (standard deviation of 0.15). Samples were subjected to thermal analysis by Rock-Eval 6 that generated a series of 30 parameters reflecting their SOC thermal stability and bulk chemistry. We trained a nonparametric machine-learning algorithm (random forests multivariate regression model) to predict the proportion of centennially persistent SOC in new soils using Rock-Eval 6 thermal parameters as predictors. We evaluated the model predictive performance with two different strategies. We first used a calibration set (n = 88) and a validation set (n = 30) with soils from all sites. Second, to test the sensitivity of the model to pedoclimate, we built a calibration set with soil samples from three out of the four sites (n = 84). The multivariate regression model accurately predicted the proportion of centennially persistent SOC in the validation set composed of soils from all sites (R2 = 0.92, RMSEP = 0.07, n = 30). The uncertainty of the model predictions was quantified by a Monte Carlo approach that produced conservative 95 % prediction intervals across the validation set. The predictive performance of the model decreased when predicting the proportion of centennially persistent SOC in soils from one fully independent site with a different pedoclimate, yet the mean error of prediction only slightly increased (R2 = 0.53, RMSEP = 0.10, n = 34). This model based on Rock-Eval 6 thermal analysis can thus be used to predict the proportion of centennially persistent SOC with known uncertainty in new soil samples from different pedoclimates, at least for sites that have similar Rock-Eval 6 thermal characteristics to those included in the calibration set. Our study reinforces the evidence that there is a link between the thermal and biogeochemical stability of soil organic matter and demonstrates that Rock-Eval 6 thermal analysis can be used to quantify the size of the centennially persistent organic carbon pool in temperate soils.

Aeroelastic stability analyses of two counter rotating propfan designs for a cruise missile model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahajan, Aparajit J.; Lucero, John M.; Mehmed, Oral; Stefko, George L.

1992-01-01

Aeroelastic stability analyses were performed to insure structural integrity of two counterrotating propfan blade designs for a NAVY/Air Force/NASA cruise missile model wind tunnel test. This analysis predicted if the propfan designs would be flutter free at the operating conditions of the wind tunnel test. Calculated stability results are presented for the two blade designs with rotational speed and Mach number as the parameters. A aeroelastic analysis code ASTROP2 (Aeroelastic Stability and Response of Propulsion Systems - 2 Dimensional Analysis), developed at LeRC, was used in this project. The aeroelastic analysis is a modal method and uses the combination of a finite element structural model and two dimensional steady and unsteady cascade aerodynamic models. This code was developed to analyze single rotation propfans but was modified and applied to counterrotating propfans for the present work. Modifications were made to transform the geometry and rotation of the aft rotor to the same reference frame as the forward rotor, to input a non-uniform inflow into the rotor being analyzed, and to automatically converge to the least stable aeroelastic mode.

Investigating the performance of LiDAR-derived biomass information in hydromechanic slope stability modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmaltz, Elmar; Steger, Stefan; Bogaard, Thom; Van Beek, Rens; Glade, Thomas

2017-04-01

Hydromechanic slope stability models are often used to assess the landslide susceptibility of hillslopes. Some of these models are able to account for vegetation related effects when assessing slope stability. However, spatial information of required vegetation parameters (especially of woodland) that are defined by land cover type, tree species and stand density are mostly underrepresented compared to hydropedological and geomechanical parameters. The aim of this study is to assess how LiDAR-derived biomass information can help to distinguish distinct tree stand-immanent properties (e.g. stand density and diversity) and further improve the performance of hydromechanic slope stability models. We used spatial vegetation data produced from sophisticated algorithms that are able to separate single trees within a stand based on LiDAR point clouds and thus allow an extraordinary detailed determination of the aboveground biomass. Further, this information is used to estimate the species- and stand-related distribution of the subsurface biomass using an innovative approach to approximate root system architecture and development. The hydrological tree-soil interactions and their impact on the geotechnical stability of the soil mantle are then reproduced in the dynamic and spatially distributed slope stability model STARWARS/PROBSTAB. This study highlights first advances in the approximation of biomechanical reinforcement potential of tree root systems in tree stands. Based on our findings, we address the advantages and limitations of highly detailed biomass information in hydromechanic modelling and physically based slope failure prediction.

Construction and Experimental Validation of a Petri Net Model of Wnt/β-Catenin Signaling.

PubMed

Jacobsen, Annika; Heijmans, Nika; Verkaar, Folkert; Smit, Martine J; Heringa, Jaap; van Amerongen, Renée; Feenstra, K Anton

2016-01-01

The Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway is important for multiple developmental processes and tissue maintenance in adults. Consequently, deregulated signaling is involved in a range of human diseases including cancer and developmental defects. A better understanding of the intricate regulatory mechanism and effect of physiological (active) and pathophysiological (hyperactive) WNT signaling is important for predicting treatment response and developing novel therapies. The constitutively expressed CTNNB1 (commonly and hereafter referred to as β-catenin) is degraded by a destruction complex, composed of amongst others AXIN1 and GSK3. The destruction complex is inhibited during active WNT signaling, leading to β-catenin stabilization and induction of β-catenin/TCF target genes. In this study we investigated the mechanism and effect of β-catenin stabilization during active and hyperactive WNT signaling in a combined in silico and in vitro approach. We constructed a Petri net model of Wnt/β-catenin signaling including main players from the plasma membrane (WNT ligands and receptors), cytoplasmic effectors and the downstream negative feedback target gene AXIN2. We validated that our model can be used to simulate both active (WNT stimulation) and hyperactive (GSK3 inhibition) signaling by comparing our simulation and experimental data. We used this experimentally validated model to get further insights into the effect of the negative feedback regulator AXIN2 upon WNT stimulation and observed an attenuated β-catenin stabilization. We furthermore simulated the effect of APC inactivating mutations, yielding a stabilization of β-catenin levels comparable to the Wnt-pathway activities observed in colorectal and breast cancer. Our model can be used for further investigation and viable predictions of the role of Wnt/β-catenin signaling in oncogenesis and development.

Construction and Experimental Validation of a Petri Net Model of Wnt/β-Catenin Signaling

PubMed Central

Heijmans, Nika; Verkaar, Folkert; Smit, Martine J.; Heringa, Jaap

2016-01-01

The Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway is important for multiple developmental processes and tissue maintenance in adults. Consequently, deregulated signaling is involved in a range of human diseases including cancer and developmental defects. A better understanding of the intricate regulatory mechanism and effect of physiological (active) and pathophysiological (hyperactive) WNT signaling is important for predicting treatment response and developing novel therapies. The constitutively expressed CTNNB1 (commonly and hereafter referred to as β-catenin) is degraded by a destruction complex, composed of amongst others AXIN1 and GSK3. The destruction complex is inhibited during active WNT signaling, leading to β-catenin stabilization and induction of β-catenin/TCF target genes. In this study we investigated the mechanism and effect of β-catenin stabilization during active and hyperactive WNT signaling in a combined in silico and in vitro approach. We constructed a Petri net model of Wnt/β-catenin signaling including main players from the plasma membrane (WNT ligands and receptors), cytoplasmic effectors and the downstream negative feedback target gene AXIN2. We validated that our model can be used to simulate both active (WNT stimulation) and hyperactive (GSK3 inhibition) signaling by comparing our simulation and experimental data. We used this experimentally validated model to get further insights into the effect of the negative feedback regulator AXIN2 upon WNT stimulation and observed an attenuated β-catenin stabilization. We furthermore simulated the effect of APC inactivating mutations, yielding a stabilization of β-catenin levels comparable to the Wnt-pathway activities observed in colorectal and breast cancer. Our model can be used for further investigation and viable predictions of the role of Wnt/β-catenin signaling in oncogenesis and development. PMID:27218469

Housing flexibility effects on rotor stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, L. B.; Wolfe, E. A.; Beatty, R. F.

1985-01-01

Preliminary rotordynamic evaluations are performed with a housing stiffness assumption that is typically determined only after the hardware is built. In addressing rotor stability, a rigid housing assumption was shown to predict an instability at a lower spin speed than a comparable flexible housing analysis. This rigid housing assumption therefore provides a conservative estimate of the stability threshold speed. A flexible housing appears to act as an energy absorber and dissipated some of the destabilizing force. The fact that a flexible housing is usually asymmetric and considerably heavier than the rotor was related to this apparent increase in rotor stability. Rigid housing analysis is proposed as a valuable screening criteria and may save time and money in construction of elaborate housing finite element models for linear stability analyses.

Predicting suicides after outpatient mental health visits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Stein, Murray B.; Petukhova, Maria V.; Bliese, Paul; Bossarte, Robert M.; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Fullerton, Carol S.; Gilman, Stephen E.; Ivany, Christopher; Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Bell, Amy Millikan; Naifeh, James A.; Nock, Matthew K.; Reis, Benjamin Y.; Rosellini, Anthony J.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Zaslavsky, Alan M.; Ursano, Robert J.

2016-01-01

The 2013 U.S. Veterans Administration/Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guidelines (VA/DoD CPG) require comprehensive suicide risk assessments for VA/DoD patients with mental disorders but provide minimal guidance on how to carry out these assessments. Given that clinician-based assessments are known not to be strong predictors of suicide, we investigated whether a precision medicine model using administrative data after outpatient mental health specialty visits could be developed to predict suicides among outpatients. We focused on male non-deployed Regular U.S. Army soldiers because they account for the vast majority of such suicides. Four machine learning classifiers (naïve Bayes, random forests, support vector regression, elastic net penalized regression) were explored. 41.5% of Army suicides in 2004-2009 occurred among the 12.0% of soldiers seen as outpatient by mental health specialists, with risk especially high within 26 weeks of visits. An elastic net classifier with 10-14 predictors optimized sensitivity (45.6% of suicide deaths occurring after the 15% of visits with highest predicted risk). Good model stability was found for a model using 2004-2007 data to predict 2008-2009 suicides, although stability decreased in a model using 2008-2009 data to predict 2010-2012 suicides. The 5% of visits with highest risk included only 0.1% of soldiers (1047.1 suicides/100,000 person-years in the 5 weeks after the visit). This is a high enough concentration of risk to have implications for targeting preventive interventions. An even better model might be developed in the future by including the enriched information on clinician-evaluated suicide risk mandated by the VA/DoD CPG to be recorded. PMID:27431294

Simulating boundary layer transition with low-Reynolds-number k-epsilon turbulence models. I - An evaluation of prediction characteristics. II - An approach to improving the predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, R. C.; Patankar, S. V.

1991-01-01

The capability of two k-epsilon low-Reynolds number (LRN) turbulence models, those of Jones and Launder (1972) and Lam and Bremhorst (1981), to predict transition in external boundary-layer flows subject to free-stream turbulence is analyzed. Both models correctly predict the basic qualitative aspects of boundary-layer transition with free stream turbulence, but for calculations started at low values of certain defined Reynolds numbers, the transition is generally predicted at unrealistically early locations. Also, the methods predict transition lengths significantly shorter than those found experimentally. An approach to overcoming these deficiencies without abandoning the basic LRN k-epsilon framework is developed. This approach limits the production term in the turbulent kinetic energy equation and is based on a simple stability criterion. It is correlated to the free-stream turbulence value. The modification is shown to improve the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the transition predictions.

Experimental Verification of the Rudder-Free Stability Theory for an Airplane Model Equipped with Rudders Having Negative Floating Tendency and Negligible Friction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKinney, Marion O.; Maggin, Bernard

1944-01-01

An investigation has been made in the Langley free-flight tunnel to obtain an experimental verification of the theoretical rudder-free stability characteristics of an airplane model equipped with conventional rudders having negative floating tendencies and negligible friction. The model used in the tests was equipped with a conventional single vertical tail having rudder area 40 percent of the vertical tail area. The model was tested both in free flight and mounted on a strut that allowed freedom only in yaw. Tests were made with three different amounts of rudder aerodynamic balance and with various values of mass, moment of inertia, and center-of-gravity location of the rudder. Most of the stability derivatives required for the theoretical calculations were determined from forced and free-oscillation tests of the particular model tested. The theoretical analysis showed that the rudder-free motions of an airplane consist largely of two oscillatory modes - a long-period oscillation somewhat similar to the normal rudder-fixed oscillation and a short-period oscillation introduced only when the rudder is set free. It was found possible in the tests to create lateral instability of the rudder-free short-period mode by large values of rudder mass parameters even though the rudder-fixed condition was highly stable. The results of the tests and calculation indicated that for most present-day airplanes having rudders of negative floating tendency, the rudder-free stability characteristics may be examined by simply considering the dynamic lateral stability using the value of the directional-stability parameter Cn(sub p) for the rudder-free condition in the conventional controls-fixed lateral-stability equations. For very large airplanes having relatively high values of the rudder mass parameters with respect to the rudder aerodynamic parameters, however, analysis of the rudder-free stability should be made with the complete equations of motion. Good agreement between calculated and measured rudder-free stability characteristics was obtained by use of the general rudder-free stability theory, in which four degrees of lateral freedom are considered. When this assumption is made that the rolling motions alone or the lateral and rolling motions may be neglected in the calculations of rudder-free stability, it is possible to predict satisfactorily the characteristics of the long-period (Dutch roll type) rudder-free oscillation for airplanes only when the effective-dihedral angle is small. With these simplifying assumptions, however, satisfactory prediction of the short-period oscillation may be obtained for any dihedral. Further simplification of the theory based on the assumption that the rudder moment of inertia might be disregarded was found to be invalid because this assumption made it impossible to calculate the characteristics of the short-period oscillations.

Grain boundary phase transformations in PtAu and relevance to thermal stabilization of bulk nanocrystalline metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O’Brien, C. J.; Barr, C. M.; Price, P. M.

There has recently been a great deal of interest in employing immiscible solutes to stabilize nanocrystalline microstructures. Existing modeling efforts largely rely on mesoscale Monte Carlo approaches that employ a simplified model of the microstructure and result in highly homogeneous segregation to grain boundaries. However, there is ample evidence from experimental and modeling studies that demonstrates segregation to grain boundaries is highly non-uniform and sensitive to boundary character. This work employs a realistic nanocrystalline microstructure with experimentally relevant global solute concentrations to illustrate inhomogeneous boundary segregation. Furthermore, experiments quantifying segregation in thin films are reported that corroborate the prediction thatmore » grain boundary segregation is highly inhomogeneous. In addition to grain boundary structure modifying the degree of segregation, the existence of a phase transformation between low and high solute content grain boundaries is predicted. In order to conduct this study, new embedded atom method interatomic potentials are developed for Pt, Au, and the PtAu binary alloy.« less

Wettability and Flow Rate Impacts on Immiscible Displacement: A Theoretical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Ran; Wan, Jiamin; Yang, Zhibing; Chen, Yi-Feng; Tokunaga, Tetsu

2018-04-01

When a more viscous fluid displaces a less viscous one in porous media, viscous pressure drop stabilizes the displacement front against capillary pressure fluctuation. For this favorable viscous ratio conditions, previous studies focused on the front instability under slow flow conditions but did not address competing effects of wettability and flow rate. Here we study how this competition controls displacement patterns. We propose a theoretical model that describes the crossover from fingering to stable flow as a function of invading fluid contact angle θ and capillary number Ca. The phase diagram predicted by the model shows that decreasing θ stabilizes the displacement for θ≥45° and the critical contact angle θc increases with Ca. The boundary between corner flow and cooperative filling for θ < 45° is also described. This work extends the classic phase diagram and has potential applications in predicting CO2 capillary trapping and manipulating wettability to enhance gas/oil displacement efficiency.

Grain boundary phase transformations in PtAu and relevance to thermal stabilization of bulk nanocrystalline metals

DOE PAGES

O’Brien, C. J.; Barr, C. M.; Price, P. M.; ...

2017-10-31

There has recently been a great deal of interest in employing immiscible solutes to stabilize nanocrystalline microstructures. Existing modeling efforts largely rely on mesoscale Monte Carlo approaches that employ a simplified model of the microstructure and result in highly homogeneous segregation to grain boundaries. However, there is ample evidence from experimental and modeling studies that demonstrates segregation to grain boundaries is highly non-uniform and sensitive to boundary character. This work employs a realistic nanocrystalline microstructure with experimentally relevant global solute concentrations to illustrate inhomogeneous boundary segregation. Furthermore, experiments quantifying segregation in thin films are reported that corroborate the prediction thatmore » grain boundary segregation is highly inhomogeneous. In addition to grain boundary structure modifying the degree of segregation, the existence of a phase transformation between low and high solute content grain boundaries is predicted. In order to conduct this study, new embedded atom method interatomic potentials are developed for Pt, Au, and the PtAu binary alloy.« less

Verification of a Byzantine-Fault-Tolerant Self-stabilizing Protocol for Clock Synchronization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malekpour, Mahyar R.

2008-01-01

This paper presents the mechanical verification of a simplified model of a rapid Byzantine-fault-tolerant self-stabilizing protocol for distributed clock synchronization systems. This protocol does not rely on any assumptions about the initial state of the system except for the presence of sufficient good nodes, thus making the weakest possible assumptions and producing the strongest results. This protocol tolerates bursts of transient failures, and deterministically converges within a time bound that is a linear function of the self-stabilization period. A simplified model of the protocol is verified using the Symbolic Model Verifier (SMV). The system under study consists of 4 nodes, where at most one of the nodes is assumed to be Byzantine faulty. The model checking effort is focused on verifying correctness of the simplified model of the protocol in the presence of a permanent Byzantine fault as well as confirmation of claims of determinism and linear convergence with respect to the self-stabilization period. Although model checking results of the simplified model of the protocol confirm the theoretical predictions, these results do not necessarily confirm that the protocol solves the general case of this problem. Modeling challenges of the protocol and the system are addressed. A number of abstractions are utilized in order to reduce the state space.

Modelling proteins’ hidden conformations to predict antibiotic resistance

PubMed Central

Hart, Kathryn M.; Ho, Chris M. W.; Dutta, Supratik; Gross, Michael L.; Bowman, Gregory R.

2016-01-01

TEM β-lactamase confers bacteria with resistance to many antibiotics and rapidly evolves activity against new drugs. However, functional changes are not easily explained by differences in crystal structures. We employ Markov state models to identify hidden conformations and explore their role in determining TEM’s specificity. We integrate these models with existing drug-design tools to create a new technique, called Boltzmann docking, which better predicts TEM specificity by accounting for conformational heterogeneity. Using our MSMs, we identify hidden states whose populations correlate with activity against cefotaxime. To experimentally detect our predicted hidden states, we use rapid mass spectrometric footprinting and confirm our models’ prediction that increased cefotaxime activity correlates with reduced Ω-loop flexibility. Finally, we design novel variants to stabilize the hidden cefotaximase states, and find their populations predict activity against cefotaxime in vitro and in vivo. Therefore, we expect this framework to have numerous applications in drug and protein design. PMID:27708258

Midterm Stability Evaluation of Wide-area Power System by using Synchronized Phasor Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ota, Yutaka; Ukai, Hiroyuki; Nakamura, Koichi; Fujita, Hideki

In recent years, the PMU (Phasor Measurement Unit) receives a great deal of attention as a synchronized measurement system of power systems. Synchronized phasor angles obtained by the PMU provide the effective information for evaluating the stability of a bulk power system. The aspect of instability phenomena during midterm tends to be more complicated, and the stability analysis using the synchronized phasor measurements is significant in order to keep a complicated power system stable. This paper proposes a midterm stability evaluation method of the wide-area power system by using the synchronized phasor measurements. By clustering and aggregating the power system to some coherent groups, the step-out is effectively predicted on the basis of the two-machine equivalent power system model. The midterm stability of a longitudinal power system model of Japanese 60Hz systems constructed by the PSA, which is a hybrid-type power system simulator, is practically evaluated using the proposed method.

Comparison of the thermal stabilization of proteins by oligosaccharides and monosaccharide mixtures: Measurement and analysis in the context of excluded volume theory.

PubMed

Beg, Ilyas; Minton, Allen P; Islam, Asimul; Hassan, Md Imtaiyaz; Ahmad, Faizan

2018-06-01

The thermal stability of apo α-lactalbumin (α-LA) and lysozyme was measured in the presence of mixtures of glucose, fructose, and galactose. Mixtures of these monosaccharides in the appropriate stoichiometric ratio were found to have a greater stabilizing effect on each of the two proteins than equal weight/volume concentrations of di- tri- and tetrasaccharides with identical subunit composition (sucrose, trehalose, raffinose, and stachyose). The excluded volume model for the effect of a single saccharide on the stability of a protein previously proposed by Beg et al. [Biochemistry 54 (2015) 3594] was extended to treat the case of saccharide mixtures. The extended model predicts quantitatively the stabilizing effect of all monosaccharide mixtures on α-LA and lysozyme reported here, as well as previously published results obtained for ribonuclease A [Biophys. Chem. 138 (2008) 120] to within experimental uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physical stability of drugs after storage above and below the glass transition temperature: Relationship to glass-forming ability.

PubMed

Alhalaweh, Amjad; Alzghoul, Ahmad; Mahlin, Denny; Bergström, Christel A S

2015-11-10

Amorphous materials are inherently unstable and tend to crystallize upon storage. In this study, we investigated the extent to which the physical stability and inherent crystallization tendency of drugs are related to their glass-forming ability (GFA), the glass transition temperature (Tg) and thermodynamic factors. Differential scanning calorimetry was used to produce the amorphous state of 52 drugs [18 compounds crystallized upon heating (Class II) and 34 remained in the amorphous state (Class III)] and to perform in situ storage for the amorphous material for 12h at temperatures 20°C above or below the Tg. A computational model based on the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was developed to predict the structure-property relationships. All drugs maintained their Class when stored at 20°C below the Tg. Fourteen of the Class II compounds crystallized when stored above the Tg whereas all except one of the Class III compounds remained amorphous. These results were only related to the glass-forming ability and no relationship to e.g. thermodynamic factors was found. The experimental data were used for computational modeling and a classification model was developed that correctly predicted the physical stability above the Tg. The use of a large dataset revealed that molecular features related to aromaticity and π-π interactions reduce the inherent physical stability of amorphous drugs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking biodiversity to ecosystem function: Implications for conservation ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, M.W.; Brigham, C.A.; Hoeksema, J.D.; Lyons, K.G.; Mills, M.H.; van Mantgem, P.

2000-01-01

We evaluate the empirical and theoretical support for the hypothesis that a large proportion of native species richness is required to maximize ecosystem stability and sustain function. This assessment is important for conservation strategies because sustenance of ecosystem functions has been used as an argument for the conservation of species. If ecosystem functions are sustained at relatively low species richness, then arguing for the conservation of ecosystem function, no matter how important in its own right, does not strongly argue for the conservation of species. Additionally, for this to be a strong conservation argument the link between species diversity and ecosystem functions of value to the human community must be clear. We review the empirical literature to quantify the support for two hypotheses: (1) species richness is positively correlated with ecosystem function, and (2) ecosystem functions do not saturate at low species richness relative to the observed or experimental diversity. Few empirical studies demonstrate improved function at high levels of species richness. Second, we analyze recent theoretical models in order to estimate the level of species richness required to maintain ecosystem function. Again we find that, within a single trophic level, most mathematical models predict saturation of ecosystem function at a low proportion of local species richness. We also analyze a theoretical model linking species number to ecosystem stability. This model predicts that species richness beyond the first few species does not typically increase ecosystem stability. One reason that high species richness may not contribute significantly to function or stability is that most communities are characterized by strong dominance such that a few species provide the vast majority of the community biomass. Rapid turnover of species may rescue the concept that diversity leads to maximum function and stability. The role of turnover in ecosystem function and stability has not been investigated. Despite the recent rush to embrace the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem function, we find little support for the hypothesis that there is a strong dependence of ecosystem function on the full complement of diversity within sites. Given this observation, the conservation community should take a cautious view of endorsing this linkage as a model to promote conservation goals.

Atomistic and coarse-grained computer simulations of raft-like lipid mixtures.

PubMed

Pandit, Sagar A; Scott, H Larry

2007-01-01

Computer modeling can provide insights into the existence, structure, size, and thermodynamic stability of localized raft-like regions in membranes. However, the challenges in the construction and simulation of accurate models of heterogeneous membranes are great. The primary obstacle in modeling the lateral organization within a membrane is the relatively slow lateral diffusion rate for lipid molecules. Microsecond or longer time-scales are needed to fully model the formation and stability of a raft in a membra ne. Atomistic simulations currently are not able to reach this scale, but they do provide quantitative information on the intermolecular forces and correlations that are involved in lateral organization. In this chapter, the steps needed to carry out and analyze atomistic simulations of hydrated lipid bilayers having heterogeneous composition are outlined. It is then shown how the data from a molecular dynamics simulation can be used to construct a coarse-grained model for the heterogeneous bilayer that can predict the lateral organization and stability of rafts at up to millisecond time-scales.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lafontaine Rivera, Jimmy G.; Theisen, Matthew K.; Chen, Po-Wei

The product formation yield (product formed per unit substrate consumed) is often the most important performance indicator in metabolic engineering. Until now, the actual yield cannot be predicted, but it can be bounded by its maximum theoretical value. The maximum theoretical yield is calculated by considering the stoichiometry of the pathways and cofactor regeneration involved. Here in this paper we found that in many cases, dynamic stability becomes an issue when excessive pathway flux is drawn to a product. This constraint reduces the yield and renders the maximal theoretical yield too loose to be predictive. We propose a more realisticmore » quantity, defined as the kinetically accessible yield (KAY) to predict the maximum accessible yield for a given flux alteration. KAY is either determined by the point of instability, beyond which steady states become unstable and disappear, or a local maximum before becoming unstable. Thus, KAY is the maximum flux that can be redirected for a given metabolic engineering strategy without losing stability. Strictly speaking, calculation of KAY requires complete kinetic information. With limited or no kinetic information, an Ensemble Modeling strategy can be used to determine a range of likely values for KAY, including an average prediction. We first apply the KAY concept with a toy model to demonstrate the principle of kinetic limitations on yield. We then used a full-scale E. coli model (193 reactions, 153 metabolites) and this approach was successful in E. coli for predicting production of isobutanol: the calculated KAY values are consistent with experimental data for three genotypes previously published.« less

Transforming RNA-Seq data to improve the performance of prognostic gene signatures.

PubMed

Zwiener, Isabella; Frisch, Barbara; Binder, Harald

2014-01-01

Gene expression measurements have successfully been used for building prognostic signatures, i.e for identifying a short list of important genes that can predict patient outcome. Mostly microarray measurements have been considered, and there is little advice available for building multivariable risk prediction models from RNA-Seq data. We specifically consider penalized regression techniques, such as the lasso and componentwise boosting, which can simultaneously consider all measurements and provide both, multivariable regression models for prediction and automated variable selection. However, they might be affected by the typical skewness, mean-variance-dependency or extreme values of RNA-Seq covariates and therefore could benefit from transformations of the latter. In an analytical part, we highlight preferential selection of covariates with large variances, which is problematic due to the mean-variance dependency of RNA-Seq data. In a simulation study, we compare different transformations of RNA-Seq data for potentially improving detection of important genes. Specifically, we consider standardization, the log transformation, a variance-stabilizing transformation, the Box-Cox transformation, and rank-based transformations. In addition, the prediction performance for real data from patients with kidney cancer and acute myeloid leukemia is considered. We show that signature size, identification performance, and prediction performance critically depend on the choice of a suitable transformation. Rank-based transformations perform well in all scenarios and can even outperform complex variance-stabilizing approaches. Generally, the results illustrate that the distribution and potential transformations of RNA-Seq data need to be considered as a critical step when building risk prediction models by penalized regression techniques.

Transforming RNA-Seq Data to Improve the Performance of Prognostic Gene Signatures

PubMed Central

Zwiener, Isabella; Frisch, Barbara; Binder, Harald

2014-01-01

Gene expression measurements have successfully been used for building prognostic signatures, i.e for identifying a short list of important genes that can predict patient outcome. Mostly microarray measurements have been considered, and there is little advice available for building multivariable risk prediction models from RNA-Seq data. We specifically consider penalized regression techniques, such as the lasso and componentwise boosting, which can simultaneously consider all measurements and provide both, multivariable regression models for prediction and automated variable selection. However, they might be affected by the typical skewness, mean-variance-dependency or extreme values of RNA-Seq covariates and therefore could benefit from transformations of the latter. In an analytical part, we highlight preferential selection of covariates with large variances, which is problematic due to the mean-variance dependency of RNA-Seq data. In a simulation study, we compare different transformations of RNA-Seq data for potentially improving detection of important genes. Specifically, we consider standardization, the log transformation, a variance-stabilizing transformation, the Box-Cox transformation, and rank-based transformations. In addition, the prediction performance for real data from patients with kidney cancer and acute myeloid leukemia is considered. We show that signature size, identification performance, and prediction performance critically depend on the choice of a suitable transformation. Rank-based transformations perform well in all scenarios and can even outperform complex variance-stabilizing approaches. Generally, the results illustrate that the distribution and potential transformations of RNA-Seq data need to be considered as a critical step when building risk prediction models by penalized regression techniques. PMID:24416353

Techniques for the Enhancement of Linear Predictive Speech Coding in Adverse Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wrench, Alan A.

Available from UMI in association with The British Library. Requires signed TDF. The Linear Prediction model was first applied to speech two and a half decades ago. Since then it has been the subject of intense research and continues to be one of the principal tools in the analysis of speech. Its mathematical tractability makes it a suitable subject for study and its proven success in practical applications makes the study worthwhile. The model is known to be unsuited to speech corrupted by background noise. This has led many researchers to investigate ways of enhancing the speech signal prior to Linear Predictive analysis. In this thesis this body of work is extended. The chosen application is low bit-rate (2.4 kbits/sec) speech coding. For this task the performance of the Linear Prediction algorithm is crucial because there is insufficient bandwidth to encode the error between the modelled speech and the original input. A review of the fundamentals of Linear Prediction and an independent assessment of the relative performance of methods of Linear Prediction modelling are presented. A new method is proposed which is fast and facilitates stability checking, however, its stability is shown to be unacceptably poorer than existing methods. A novel supposition governing the positioning of the analysis frame relative to a voiced speech signal is proposed and supported by observation. The problem of coding noisy speech is examined. Four frequency domain speech processing techniques are developed and tested. These are: (i) Combined Order Linear Prediction Spectral Estimation; (ii) Frequency Scaling According to an Aural Model; (iii) Amplitude Weighting Based on Perceived Loudness; (iv) Power Spectrum Squaring. These methods are compared with the Recursive Linearised Maximum a Posteriori method. Following on from work done in the frequency domain, a time domain implementation of spectrum squaring is developed. In addition, a new method of power spectrum estimation is developed based on the Minimum Variance approach. This new algorithm is shown to be closely related to Linear Prediction but produces slightly broader spectral peaks. Spectrum squaring is applied to both the new algorithm and standard Linear Prediction and their relative performance is assessed. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Multi-Dimensional Shallow Landslide Stability Analysis Suitable for Application at the Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milledge, David; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim; Dietrich, William E.

2013-04-01

Current practice in regional-scale shallow landslide hazard assessment is to adopt a one-dimensional slope stability representation. Such a representation cannot produce discrete landslides and thus cannot make predictions on landslide size. Furthermore, one-dimensional approaches cannot include lateral effects, which are known to be important in defining instability. Here we derive an alternative model that accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of an unstable block of soil. We model boundary frictional resistances using 'at rest' earth pressure on the lateral sides, and 'active' and 'passive' pressure, using the log-spiral method, on the upslope and downslope margins. We represent root reinforcement on each margin assuming that root cohesion declines exponentially with soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are relatively well constrained and find that our model predicts failure at the observed location and predicts that larger or smaller failures conformal to the observed shape are indeed more stable. We use a sensitivity analysis of the model to show that lateral reinforcement sets a minimum landslide size, and that the additional strength at the downslope boundary results in optimal shapes that are longer in the downslope direction. However, reinforcement effects alone cannot fully explain the size or shape distributions of observed landslides, highlighting the importance of the spatial pattern of key parameters (e.g. pore water pressure and soil depth) at the watershed scale. The application of the model at this scale requires an efficient method to find unstable shapes among an exponential number of candidates. In this context, the model allows a more extensive examination of the controls on landslide size, shape and location.

Modeling and prediction of relaxation of polar order in high-activity nonlinear optical polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenthner, Andrew J.; Lindsay, Geoffrey A.; Wright, Michael E.; Fallis, Stephen; Ashley, Paul R.; Sanghadasa, Mohan

2007-09-01

Mach-Zehnder optical modulators were fabricated using the CLD and FTC chromophores in polymer-on-silicon optical waveguides. Up to 17 months of oven-ageing stability are reported for the poled polymer films. Modulators containing an FTC-polyimide had the best over all aging performance. To model and extrapolate the ageing data, a relaxation correlation function attributed to A. K. Jonscher was compared to the well-established stretched exponential correlation function. Both models gave a good fit to the data. The Jonscher model predicted a slower relaxation rate in the out years. Analysis showed that collecting data for a longer period relative to the relaxation time was more important for generating useful predictions than the precision with which individual model parameters could be estimated. Thus from a practical standpoint, time-temperature superposition must be assumed in order to generate meaningful predictions. For this purpose, Arrhenius-type expressions were found to relate the model time constants to the ageing temperatures.

Power System Transient Stability Based on Data Mining Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Zhen; Shi, Jia; Wu, Runsheng; Lu, Dan; Cui, Mingde

2018-01-01

In order to study the stability of power system, a power system transient stability based on data mining theory is designed. By introducing association rules analysis in data mining theory, an association classification method for transient stability assessment is presented. A mathematical model of transient stability assessment based on data mining technology is established. Meanwhile, combining rule reasoning with classification prediction, the method of association classification is proposed to perform transient stability assessment. The transient stability index is used to identify the samples that cannot be correctly classified in association classification. Then, according to the critical stability of each sample, the time domain simulation method is used to determine the state, so as to ensure the accuracy of the final results. The results show that this stability assessment system can improve the speed of operation under the premise that the analysis result is completely correct, and the improved algorithm can find out the inherent relation between the change of power system operation mode and the change of transient stability degree.

Modelling charge interactions in the prion protein: predictions for pathogenesis.

PubMed

Warwicker, J

1999-04-30

Calculations are presented for the pH-dependence of stability and membrane charge complementarity of prion protein fragments. The theoretical results are compared with reported characterisations of prion protein folding in vitro. Discussion of models for conformational change and pathogenesis in vivo leads to the prediction of amino acids that could mediate sensitivity to the endosomal pH and to a design strategy for recombinant prion proteins with an increased susceptibility to prion proteinSc-like properties in vitro. In this model, the protective effect of certain basic polymorphisms can be interpreted in terms of oligomerisation on a negatively-charged surface.

Combustion-acoustic stability analysis for premixed gas turbine combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Darling, Douglas; Radhakrishnan, Krishnan; Oyediran, Ayo; Cowan, Lizabeth

1995-01-01

Lean, prevaporized, premixed combustors are susceptible to combustion-acoustic instabilities. A model was developed to predict eigenvalues of axial modes for combustion-acoustic interactions in a premixed combustor. This work extends previous work by including variable area and detailed chemical kinetics mechanisms, using the code LSENS. Thus the acoustic equations could be integrated through the flame zone. Linear perturbations were made of the continuity, momentum, energy, chemical species, and state equations. The qualitative accuracy of our approach was checked by examining its predictions for various unsteady heat release rate models. Perturbations in fuel flow rate are currently being added to the model.

Investigation of nucleation kinetics in H2SO4 vapor through modeling of gas phase kinetics coupled with particle dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlsson, Philip T. M.; Zeuch, Thomas

2018-03-01

We have developed a new model utilizing our existing kinetic gas phase models to simulate experimental particle size distributions emerging in dry supersaturated H2SO4 vapor homogeneously produced by rapid oxidation of SO2 through stabilized Criegee-Intermediates from 2-butene ozonolysis. We use a sectional method for simulating the particle dynamics. The particle treatment in the model is based on first principles and takes into account the transition from the kinetic to the diffusion-limited regime. It captures the temporal evolution of size distributions at the end of the ozonolysis experiment well, noting a slight underrepresentation of coagulation effects for larger particle sizes. The model correctly predicts the shape and the modes of the experimentally observed particle size distributions. The predicted modes show an extremely high sensitivity to the H2SO4 evaporation rates of the initially formed H2SO4 clusters (dimer to pentamer), which were arbitrarily restricted to decrease exponentially with increasing cluster size. In future, the analysis presented in this work can be extended to allow a direct validation of quantum chemically predicted stabilities of small H2SO4 clusters, which are believed to initiate a significant fraction of atmospheric new particle formation events. We discuss the prospects and possible limitations of the here presented approach.

Bootstrap evaluation of a young Douglas-fir height growth model for the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Nicholas R. Vaughn; Eric C. Turnblom; Martin W. Ritchie

2010-01-01

We evaluated the stability of a complex regression model developed to predict the annual height growth of young Douglas-fir. This model is highly nonlinear and is fit in an iterative manner for annual growth coefficients from data with multiple periodic remeasurement intervals. The traditional methods for such a sensitivity analysis either involve laborious math or...

An Experimental Evaluation of Generalized Predictive Control for Tiltrotor Aeroelastic Stability Augmentation in Airplane Mode of Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kvaternik, Raymond G.; Piatak, David J.; Nixon, Mark W.; Langston, Chester W.; Singleton, Jeffrey D.; Bennett, Richard L.; Brown, Ross K.

2001-01-01

The results of a joint NASA/Army/Bell Helicopter Textron wind-tunnel test to assess the potential of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) for actively controlling the swashplate of tiltrotor aircraft to enhance aeroelastic stability in the airplane mode of flight are presented. GPC is an adaptive time-domain predictive control method that uses a linear difference equation to describe the input-output relationship of the system and to design the controller. The test was conducted in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel using an unpowered 1/5-scale semispan aeroelastic model of the V-22 that was modified to incorporate a GPC-based multi-input multi-output control algorithm to individually control each of the three swashplate actuators. Wing responses were used for feedback. The GPC-based control system was highly effective in increasing the stability of the critical wing mode for all of the conditions tested, without measurable degradation of the damping in the other modes. The algorithm was also robust with respect to its performance in adjusting to rapid changes in both the rotor speed and the tunnel airspeed.

A simplified computer program for the prediction of the linear stability behavior of liquid propellant combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, C. E.; Eckert, K.

1979-01-01

A program for predicting the linear stability of liquid propellant rocket engines is presented. The underlying model assumptions and analytical steps necessary for understanding the program and its input and output are also given. The rocket engine is modeled as a right circular cylinder with an injector with a concentrated combustion zone, a nozzle, finite mean flow, and an acoustic admittance, or the sensitive time lag theory. The resulting partial differential equations are combined into two governing integral equations by the use of the Green's function method. These equations are solved using a successive approximation technique for the small amplitude (linear) case. The computational method used as well as the various user options available are discussed. Finally, a flow diagram, sample input and output for a typical application and a complete program listing for program MODULE are presented.

Fokker-Planck analysis of transverse collective instabilities in electron storage rings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lindberg, Ryan R.

We analyze single bunch transverse instabilities due to wakefields using a Fokker-Planck model. We first expand on the work of T. Suzuki, Part. Accel. 12, 237 (1982) to derive the theoretical model including chromaticity, both dipolar and quadrupolar transverse wakefields, and the effects of damping and diffusion due to the synchrotron radiation. We reduce the problem to a linear matrix equation, whose eigenvalues and eigenvectors determine the collective stability of the beam. We then show that various predictions of the theory agree quite well with results from particle tracking simulations, including the threshold current for transverse instability and the profilemore » of the unstable mode. In particular, we find that predicting collective stability for high energy electron beams at moderate to large values of chromaticity requires the full Fokker-Planck analysis to properly account for the effects of damping and diffusion due to synchrotron radiation.« less

Model predictive control design for polytopic uncertain systems by synthesising multi-step prediction scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jianbo; Xi, Yugeng; Li, Dewei; Xu, Yuli; Gan, Zhongxue

2018-01-01

A common objective of model predictive control (MPC) design is the large initial feasible region, low online computational burden as well as satisfactory control performance of the resulting algorithm. It is well known that interpolation-based MPC can achieve a favourable trade-off among these different aspects. However, the existing results are usually based on fixed prediction scenarios, which inevitably limits the performance of the obtained algorithms. So by replacing the fixed prediction scenarios with the time-varying multi-step prediction scenarios, this paper provides a new insight into improvement of the existing MPC designs. The adopted control law is a combination of predetermined multi-step feedback control laws, based on which two MPC algorithms with guaranteed recursive feasibility and asymptotic stability are presented. The efficacy of the proposed algorithms is illustrated by a numerical example.

Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

2015-11-01

The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

The pitch of vibrato tones: a model based on instantaneous frequency decomposition.

PubMed

Mesz, Bruno A; Eguia, Manuel C

2009-07-01

We study vibrato as the more ubiquitous manifestation of a nonstationary tone that can evoke a single overall pitch. Some recent results using nonsymmetrical vibrato tones suggest that the perceived pitch could be governed by some stability-sensitive mechanism. For nonstationary sounds the adequate tools are time-frequency representations (TFRs). We show that a recently proposed TFR could be the simplest framework to explain this hypothetical stability-sensitive mechanism. We propose a one-parameter model within this framework that is able to predict previously reported results and we present new results obtained from psychophysical experiments performed in our laboratory.

Urey prize lecture: On the diversity of plausible planetary systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lissauer, J. J.

1995-01-01

Models of planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are used to predict the variety of planetary and satellite systems that may be present within our galaxy. A new approximate global criterion for orbital stability of planetary systems based on an extension of the local resonance overlap criterion is proposed. This criterion implies that at least some of Uranus' small inner moons are significantly less massive than predicted by estimates based on Voyager volumes and densities assumed to equal that of Miranda. Simple calculations (neglecting planetary gravity) suggest that giant planets which acrete substantial amounts of gas while their envelopes are extremely distended ultimately rotate rapidly in the prgrade direction.

Predicting protein thermal stability changes upon point mutations using statistical potentials: Introducing HoTMuSiC.

PubMed

Pucci, Fabrizio; Bourgeas, Raphaël; Rooman, Marianne

2016-03-18

The accurate prediction of the impact of an amino acid substitution on the thermal stability of a protein is a central issue in protein science, and is of key relevance for the rational optimization of various bioprocesses that use enzymes in unusual conditions. Here we present one of the first computational tools to predict the change in melting temperature ΔTm upon point mutations, given the protein structure and, when available, the melting temperature Tm of the wild-type protein. The key ingredients of our model structure are standard and temperature-dependent statistical potentials, which are combined with the help of an artificial neural network. The model structure was chosen on the basis of a detailed thermodynamic analysis of the system. The parameters of the model were identified on a set of more than 1,600 mutations with experimentally measured ΔTm. The performance of our method was tested using a strict 5-fold cross-validation procedure, and was found to be significantly superior to that of competing methods. We obtained a root mean square deviation between predicted and experimental ΔTm values of 4.2 °C that reduces to 2.9 °C when ten percent outliers are removed. A webserver-based tool is freely available for non-commercial use at soft.dezyme.com.

LMI-Based Generation of Feedback Laws for a Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2007-01-01

This technical note provides a mathematical proof of Corollary 1 from the paper 'A Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Proven Robustness and Resolvability' that appeared in the 2006 Proceedings of the American Control Conference. The proof was omitted for brevity in the publication. The paper was based on algorithms developed for the FY2005 R&TD (Research and Technology Development) project for Small-body Guidance, Navigation, and Control [2].The framework established by the Corollary is for a robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees the resolvability of the associated nite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. Additional details of the framework are available in the publication.

Gamma Prime Precipitate Evolution During Aging of a Model Nickel-Based Superalloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodfellow, A. J.; Galindo-Nava, E. I.; Christofidou, K. A.; Jones, N. G.; Martin, T.; Bagot, P. A. J.; Boyer, C. D.; Hardy, M. C.; Stone, H. J.

2018-03-01

The microstructural stability of nickel-based superalloys is critical for maintaining alloy performance during service in gas turbine engines. In this study, the precipitate evolution in a model polycrystalline Ni-based superalloy during aging to 1000 hours has been studied via transmission electron microscopy, atom probe tomography, and neutron diffraction. Variations in phase composition and precipitate morphology, size, and volume fraction were observed during aging, while the constrained lattice misfit remained constant at approximately zero. The experimental composition of the γ matrix phase was consistent with thermodynamic equilibrium predictions, while significant differences were identified between the experimental and predicted results from the γ' phase. These results have implications for the evolution of mechanical properties in service and their prediction using modeling methods.

Predicting repeat protein folding kinetics from an experimentally determined folding energy landscape

PubMed Central

Street, Timothy O; Barrick, Doug

2009-01-01

The Notch ankyrin domain is a repeat protein whose folding has been characterized through equilibrium and kinetic measurements. In previous work, equilibrium folding free energies of truncated constructs were used to generate an experimentally determined folding energy landscape (Mello and Barrick, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2004;101:14102–14107). Here, this folding energy landscape is used to parameterize a kinetic model in which local transition probabilities between partly folded states are based on energy values from the landscape. The landscape-based model correctly predicts highly diverse experimentally determined folding kinetics of the Notch ankyrin domain and sequence variants. These predictions include monophasic folding and biphasic unfolding, curvature in the unfolding limb of the chevron plot, population of a transient unfolding intermediate, relative folding rates of 19 variants spanning three orders of magnitude, and a change in the folding pathway that results from C-terminal stabilization. These findings indicate that the folding pathway(s) of the Notch ankyrin domain are thermodynamically selected: the primary determinants of kinetic behavior can be simply deduced from the local stability of individual repeats. PMID:19177351

A study of aeroelastic and structural dynamic effects in multi-rotor systems with application to hybrid heavy lift vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedmann, P. P.

1984-01-01

An aeroelastic model suitable for the study of aeroelastic and structural dynamic effects in multirotor vehicles simulating a hybrid heavy lift vehicle was developed and applied to the study of a number of diverse problems. The analytical model developed proved capable of modeling a number of aeroelastic problems, namely: (1) isolated blade aeroelastic stability in hover and forward flight, (2) coupled rotor/fuselage aeromechanical problem in air or ground resonance, (3) tandem rotor coupled rotor/fuselage problems, and (4) the aeromechanical stability of a multirotor vehicle model representing a hybrid heavy lift airship (HHLA). The model was used to simulate the ground resonance boundaries of a three bladed hingeless rotor model, including the effect of aerodynamic loads, and the theoretical predictions compared well with experimental results. Subsequently the model was used to study the aeromechanical stability of a vehicle representing a hybrid heavy lift airship, and potential instabilities which could occur for this type of vehicle were identified. The coupling between various blade, supporting structure and rigid body modes was identified.

On the tree stability risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giambastiani, Yamuna; Preti, Federico; Errico, Alessandro; Penna, Daniele

2017-04-01

There is growing interest in developing models for predicting how root anchorage and tree bracing could influence tree stability. This work presents the results of different experiments aimed at evaluating the mechanical response of plate roots to pulling tests. Pulling tests have been executed with increasing soil water content and soil of different texture. Different types of tree bracing have been examined for evaluating its impact on plant stiffness. Root plate was anchored with different systems for evaluating the change in overturning resistance. The first results indicate that soil water content contributed to modify both the soil cohesion and the stabilizing forces. Wind effect, slope stability and root reinforcement could be better quantified by means of such a results.

Comparison of random regression models with Legendre polynomials and linear splines for production traits and somatic cell score of Canadian Holstein cows.

PubMed

Bohmanova, J; Miglior, F; Jamrozik, J; Misztal, I; Sullivan, P G

2008-09-01

A random regression model with both random and fixed regressions fitted by Legendre polynomials of order 4 was compared with 3 alternative models fitting linear splines with 4, 5, or 6 knots. The effects common for all models were a herd-test-date effect, fixed regressions on days in milk (DIM) nested within region-age-season of calving class, and random regressions for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Data were test-day milk, fat and protein yields, and SCS recorded from 5 to 365 DIM during the first 3 lactations of Canadian Holstein cows. A random sample of 50 herds consisting of 96,756 test-day records was generated to estimate variance components within a Bayesian framework via Gibbs sampling. Two sets of genetic evaluations were subsequently carried out to investigate performance of the 4 models. Models were compared by graphical inspection of variance functions, goodness of fit, error of prediction of breeding values, and stability of estimated breeding values. Models with splines gave lower estimates of variances at extremes of lactations than the model with Legendre polynomials. Differences among models in goodness of fit measured by percentages of squared bias, correlations between predicted and observed records, and residual variances were small. The deviance information criterion favored the spline model with 6 knots. Smaller error of prediction and higher stability of estimated breeding values were achieved by using spline models with 5 and 6 knots compared with the model with Legendre polynomials. In general, the spline model with 6 knots had the best overall performance based upon the considered model comparison criteria.

A population pharmacokinetic model of valproic acid in pediatric patients with epilepsy: a non-linear pharmacokinetic model based on protein-binding saturation.

PubMed

Ding, Junjie; Wang, Yi; Lin, Weiwei; Wang, Changlian; Zhao, Limei; Li, Xingang; Zhao, Zhigang; Miao, Liyan; Jiao, Zheng

2015-03-01

Valproic acid (VPA) follows a non-linear pharmacokinetic profile in terms of protein-binding saturation. The total daily dose regarding VPA clearance is a simple power function, which may partially explain the non-linearity of the pharmacokinetic profile; however, it may be confounded by the therapeutic drug monitoring effect. The aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for VPA based on protein-binding saturation in pediatric patients with epilepsy. A total of 1,107 VPA serum trough concentrations at steady state were collected from 902 epileptic pediatric patients aged from 3 weeks to 14 years at three hospitals. The population pharmacokinetic model was developed using NONMEM(®) software. The ability of three candidate models (the simple power exponent model, the dose-dependent maximum effect [DDE] model, and the protein-binding model) to describe the non-linear pharmacokinetic profile of VPA was investigated, and potential covariates were screened using a stepwise approach. Bootstrap, normalized prediction distribution errors and external evaluations from two independent studies were performed to determine the stability and predictive performance of the candidate models. The age-dependent exponent model described the effects of body weight and age on the clearance well. Co-medication with carbamazepine was identified as a significant covariate. The DDE model best fitted the aim of this study, although there were no obvious differences in the predictive performances. The condition number was less than 500, and the precision of the parameter estimates was less than 30 %, indicating stability and validity of the final model. The DDE model successfully described the non-linear pharmacokinetics of VPA. Furthermore, the proposed population pharmacokinetic model of VPA can be used to design rational dosage regimens to achieve desirable serum concentrations.

Modeling Nitrogen Decrease in Water Lettuce Ponds from Waste Stabilization Ponds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putri, Gitta Agnes; Sunarsih

2018-02-01

This paper presents about the dynamic modeling of the Water Lettuce ponds as a form of improvement from the Water Hyacinth ponds. The purpose of this paper is to predict nitrogen decrease and nitrogen transformation in Water Lettuce ponds integrated with Waste Stabilization Ponds. The model consists of 4 mass balances, namely Dissolved Organic Nitrogen (DON), Particulate Organic Nitrogen (PON), ammonium (NH4+), Nitrate and Nitrite (NOx). The process of nitrogen transformation which considered in a Water Lettuce ponds, namely hydrolysis, mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, plant and bacterial uptake processes. Numerical simulations are performed by giving the values of parameters and the initial values of nitrogen compounds based on a review of previous studies. Numerical results show that the rate of change in the concentration of nitrogen compounds in the integration ponds of waste stabilization and water lettuce decreases and reaches stable at different times.

A dynamic analysis of the motion of a low-wing general aviation aircraft about its calculated equilibrium flat spin mode

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tischler, M. B.; Barlow, J. B.

1980-01-01

The properties of the flat spin mode of a general aviation configuration have been studied through analysis of rotary balance data, numerical simulation, and analytical study of the equilibrium state. The equilibrium state is predicted well from rotary balance data. The variations of yawing moment and pitching moment as functions of sideslip have been shown to be of great importance in obtaining accurate modeling. These dependencies are not presently available with sufficient accuracy from previous tests or theories. The stability of the flat spin mode has been examined extensively using numerical linearization, classical perturbation methods, and reduced order modeling. The stability exhibited by the time histories and the eigenvalue analyses is shown to be strongly dependent on certain static cross derivatives and more so on the dynamic derivatives. Explicit stability criteria are obtained from the reduced order models.

Integrated modelling of H-mode pedestal and confinement in JET-ILW

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saarelma, S.; Challis, C. D.; Garzotti, L.; Frassinetti, L.; Maggi, C. F.; Romanelli, M.; Stokes, C.; Contributors, JET

2018-01-01

A pedestal prediction model Europed is built on the existing EPED1 model by coupling it with core transport simulation using a Bohm-gyroBohm transport model to self-consistently predict JET-ILW power scan for hybrid plasmas that display weaker power degradation than the IPB98(y, 2) scaling of the energy confinement time. The weak power degradation is reproduced in the coupled core-pedestal simulation. The coupled core-pedestal model is further tested for a 3.0 MA plasma with the highest stored energy achieved in JET-ILW so far, giving a prediction of the stored plasma energy within the error margins of the measured experimental value. A pedestal density prediction model based on the neutral penetration is tested on a JET-ILW database giving a prediction with an average error of 17% from the experimental data when a parameter taking into account the fuelling rate is added into the model. However the model fails to reproduce the power dependence of the pedestal density implying missing transport physics in the model. The future JET-ILW deuterium campaign with increased heating power is predicted to reach plasma energy of 11 MJ, which would correspond to 11-13 MW of fusion power in equivalent deuterium-tritium plasma but with isotope effects on pedestal stability and core transport ignored.

Time shift in slope failure prediction between unimodal and bimodal modeling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciervo, Fabio; Casini, Francesca; Nicolina Papa, Maria; Medina, Vicente

2016-04-01

Together with the need to use more appropriate mathematical expressions for describing hydro-mechanical soil processes, a challenge issue relates to the need of considering the effects induced by terrain heterogeneities on the physical mechanisms, taking into account the implications of the heterogeneities in affecting time-dependent hydro-mechanical variables, would improve the prediction capacities of models, such as the ones used in early warning systems. The presence of the heterogeneities in partially-saturated slopes results in irregular propagation of the moisture and suction front. To mathematically represent the "dual-implication" generally induced by the heterogeneities in describing the hydraulic terrain behavior, several bimodal hydraulic models have been presented in literature and replaced the conventional sigmoidal/unimodal functions; this presupposes that the scale of the macrostructure is comparable with the local scale (Darcy scale), thus the Richards' model can be assumed adequate to mathematically reproduce the processes. The purpose of this work is to focus on the differences in simulating flow infiltration processes and slope stability conditions originated from preliminary choices of hydraulic models and contextually between different approaches to evaluate the factor of safety (FoS). In particular, the results of two approaches are compared. The first one includes the conventional expression of the FoS under saturated conditions and the widespread used hydraulic model of van Genuchten-Mualem. The second approach includes a generalized FoS equation for infinite-slope model under variably saturated soil conditions (Lu and Godt, 2008) and the bimodal Romano et al.'s (2011) functions to describe the hydraulic response. The extension of the above mentioned approach to the bimodal context is based on an analytical method to assess the effects of the hydraulic properties on soil shear developed integrating a bimodal lognormal hydraulic function within the Bishop stress theory framework (Ciervo et al., 2015). The proposed work tends to emphasize how a more accurate slope stability analysis that accounts dual-structure could be useful to reach a more accurate definition of the stability conditions. The effects in practical analysis may be significant. The highlighted discrepancies between the different approaches in describing the timing processes and strength contribution due to capillary forces may entail no negligible differences in slope stability predictions, especially in those cases where the possibility of a failure in unsaturated terrains is contemplated.

Stabilization of miscible viscous fingering by a step-growth polymerization reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunton, Patrick; Stewart, Simone; Marin, Daniela; Tullier, Michael; Meiburg, Eckart; Pojman, John

2017-11-01

Viscous fingering is a hydrodynamic instability that occurs when a more mobile fluid displaces a fluid of lower mobility. Viscous fingering is often undesirable in industrial processes such as secondary petroleum recovery where it limits resource recovery. Linear stability analysis by Hejazi et al. (2010) has predicted that a non-monotonic viscosity profile at an otherwise unstable interface can in some instances stabilize the flow. We use step-growth polymerization at the interface between two miscible monomers as a model system. A dithiol monomer displacing a diacrylate react to form a linear polymer that behaves as a Newtonian fluid. Viscous fingering was imaged in a horizontal Hele-Shaw cell via Schlieren, which is sensitive to polymer conversion. By varying reaction rate via initiator concentration along with flow rate, we demonstrated increasing stabilization of the flow with increasing Damkohler number (ratio of the reaction rate to the flow rate). Results were compared with regions of predicted stability from the results of Hejazi et al. (2010). When the advection outran the reaction, viscous fingering occurred as usual. However, when the reaction was able to keep pace with the advection, the increased viscosity at the interface stabilized the flow. We acknowledge support from NSF CBET-1335739 and NSF CBET 1511653.

Stability of lava lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witham, Fred; Llewellin, Edward W.

2006-11-01

A physical model of a generic lava lake system is developed. We derive the requisite conditions for the existence of an 'equilibrium lava lake' in which magmastatic pressure at the base of the conduit balances the pressure in the underlying magmatic reservoir. The stability of this lava lake system is tested by investigating the response of the system to perturbation. We develop a graphical method, based on the system's pressure-depth profile, to predict the subsequent behaviour of the system. Despite the simplicity of the modelled system, we find a broad behavioural spectrum. Initially, the rise of bubbles through the magma is ignored. In this case, both stable, long-lived lava lakes, and unstable lakes that are prone to sudden draining, are predicted. The stability of the system is shown to be controlled by lake-conduit geometry, the solubility and gas expansion laws and the magma's volatile content. We show that an unstable lake must collapse to a new, stable equilibrium. Subsequent recharge of the system by, for example, conduit overturn, would promote a return to the original equilibrium, giving rise to cyclic behaviour. Such a mechanism is consistent with lava lake behaviour during the 1983-1984 Pu'u 'O'o eruption of Kilauea. When the rise of bubbles through the magma is considered, our model predicts that stable lakes must drain over time. We, therefore, deduce that persistently degassing, stable lava lakes, such as those observed at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica, and Mauna Ulu, Kilauea, Hawaii, must have an effective conduit convection mechanism or an exogenous supply of bubbles from depth.

Usefulness of the HMRPGV method for simultaneous selection of upland cotton genotypes with greater fiber length and high yield stability.

PubMed

Farias, F J C; Carvalho, L P; Silva Filho, J L; Teodoro, P E

2016-08-19

The harmonic mean of the relative performance of genotypic predicted value (HMRPGV) method has been used to measure the genotypic stability and adaptability of various crops. However, its use in cotton is still restricted. This study aimed to use mixed models to select cotton genotypes that simultaneously result in longer fiber length, higher fiber yield, and phenotypic stability in both of these traits. Eight trials with 16 cotton genotypes were conducted in the 2008/2009 harvest in Mato Grosso State. The experimental design was randomized complete blocks with four replicates of each of the 16 genotypes. In each trial, we evaluated fiber yield and fiber length. The genetic parameters were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased predictor method. Joint selection considering, simultaneously, fiber length, fiber yield, stability, and adaptability is possible with the HMRPGV method. Our results suggested that genotypes CNPA MT 04 2080 and BRS CEDRO may be grown in environments similar to those tested here and may be predicted to result in greater fiber length, fiber yield, adaptability, and phenotypic stability. These genotypes may constitute a promising population base in breeding programs aimed at increasing these trait values.

Goal orientations, motivational climate, and prosocial and antisocial behaviour in youth football: exploring their temporal stability and reciprocal relationships.

PubMed

Sage, Luke D; Kavussanu, Maria

2008-05-01

In this study, we examined the temporal stability and reciprocal relationships among task and ego orientation, task- and ego-involving climates, and prosocial and antisocial behaviour in youth football. Male (n = 156) and female (n = 24) footballers (mean age 14.1 years, s = 1.8) completed questionnaires towards the beginning and end of a regular season. Questionnaires measured goal orientation, perceived motivational climate, and frequency of prosocial and antisocial behaviours. Structural equation modelling indicated moderate covariance stability between the beginning and end of the season. Subsequent analyses revealed a significant decrease only in perceptions of task-involving climate. In the cross-lagged analyses, prosocial behaviour at the beginning of the season positively predicted task-involving climate at the end of the season. Antisocial behaviour at the beginning of the season positively predicted both ego orientation and ego-involving climate at the end of the season and a reciprocal relationship was revealed whereby ego orientation at the beginning of the season positively predicted antisocial behaviour at the end of the season. Task orientation at the beginning of the season negatively predicted ego-involving climate at the end of the season. All cross-lagged relationships were weak. This exploratory study offers limited support for bi-directional relationships between personal, environmental, and behavioural variables but provides useful insight into the covariance stability, change, and interrelationships between motivational and moral constructs over a competitive season.

NeEMO: a method using residue interaction networks to improve prediction of protein stability upon mutation.

PubMed

Giollo, Manuel; Martin, Alberto J M; Walsh, Ian; Ferrari, Carlo; Tosatto, Silvio C E

2014-01-01

The rapid growth of un-annotated missense variants poses challenges requiring novel strategies for their interpretation. From the thermodynamic point of view, amino acid changes can lead to a change in the internal energy of a protein and induce structural rearrangements. This is of great relevance for the study of diseases and protein design, justifying the development of prediction methods for variant-induced stability changes. Here we propose NeEMO, a tool for the evaluation of stability changes using an effective representation of proteins based on residue interaction networks (RINs). RINs are used to extract useful features describing interactions of the mutant amino acid with its structural environment. Benchmarking shows NeEMO to be very effective, allowing reliable predictions in different parts of the protein such as β-strands and buried residues. Validation on a previously published independent dataset shows that NeEMO has a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.77 and a standard error of 1 Kcal/mol, outperforming nine recent methods. The NeEMO web server can be freely accessed from URL: http://protein.bio.unipd.it/neemo/. NeEMO offers an innovative and reliable tool for the annotation of amino acid changes. A key contribution are RINs, which can be used for modeling proteins and their interactions effectively. Interestingly, the approach is very general, and can motivate the development of a new family of RIN-based protein structure analyzers. NeEMO may suggest innovative strategies for bioinformatics tools beyond protein stability prediction.

Three-dimensional modelling of slope stability using the Local Factor of Safety concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, Shirin; Huisman, Sander; Beck, Martin; Vereecken, Harry; Class, Holger

2017-04-01

Slope stability is governed by coupled hydrological and mechanical processes. The slope stability depends on the effective stress, which in turn depends on the weight of the soil and the matrix potential. Therefore, changes in water content and matrix potential associated with infiltration will affect slope stability. Most available models describing these coupled hydro-mechanical processes either rely on a one- or two-dimensional representation of hydrological and mechanical properties and processes, which obviously is a strong simplification in many applications. Therefore, the aim of this work is to develop a three-dimensional hydro-mechanical model that is able to capture the effect of spatial and temporal variability of both mechanical and hydrological parameters on slope stability. For this, we rely on DuMux, which is a free and open-source simulator for flow and transport processes in porous media that facilitates coupling of different model approaches and offers flexibility for model development. We use the Richards equation to model unsaturated water flow. The simulated water content and matrix potential distribution is used to calculate the effective stress. We only consider linear elasticity and solve for statically admissible fields of stress and displacement without invoking failure or the redistribution of post-failure stress or displacement. The Local Factor of Safety concept is used to evaluate slope stability in order to overcome some of the main limitations of commonly used methods based on limit equilibrium considerations. In a first step, we compared our model implementation with a 2D benchmark model that was implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics. In a second step, we present in-silico experiments with the newly developed 3D model to show the effect of slope morphology, spatial variability in hydraulic and mechanical material properties, and spatially variable soil depth on simulated slope stability. It is expected that this improved physically-based three-dimensional hydro-mechanical model is able to provide more reliable slope instability predictions in more complex situations.

Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Discriminating between stabilizing and destabilizing protein design mutations via recombination and simulation.

PubMed

Johnson, Lucas B; Gintner, Lucas P; Park, Sehoo; Snow, Christopher D

2015-08-01

Accuracy of current computational protein design (CPD) methods is limited by inherent approximations in energy potentials and sampling. These limitations are often used to qualitatively explain design failures; however, relatively few studies provide specific examples or quantitative details that can be used to improve future CPD methods. Expanding the design method to include a library of sequences provides data that is well suited for discriminating between stabilizing and destabilizing design elements. Using thermophilic endoglucanase E1 from Acidothermus cellulolyticus as a model enzyme, we computationally designed a sequence with 60 mutations. The design sequence was rationally divided into structural blocks and recombined with the wild-type sequence. Resulting chimeras were assessed for activity and thermostability. Surprisingly, unlike previous chimera libraries, regression analysis based on one- and two-body effects was not sufficient for predicting chimera stability. Analysis of molecular dynamics simulations proved helpful in distinguishing stabilizing and destabilizing mutations. Reverting to the wild-type amino acid at destabilized sites partially regained design stability, and introducing predicted stabilizing mutations in wild-type E1 significantly enhanced thermostability. The ability to isolate stabilizing and destabilizing elements in computational design offers an opportunity to interpret previous design failures and improve future CPD methods. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

2017-01-01

Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)4 model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends. PMID:28273856

A Linear Stochastic Dynamical Model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, C. J.; Battisti, D. S.

2001-02-01

In this study the behavior of a linear, intermediate model of ENSO is examined under stochastic forcing. The model was developed in a companion paper (Part I) and is derived from the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model. Four variants of the model are used whose stabilities range from slightly damped to moderately damped. Each model is run as a simulation while being perturbed by noise that is uncorrelated (white) in space and time. The statistics of the model output show the moderately damped models to be more realistic than the slightly damped models. The moderately damped models have power spectra that are quantitatively quite similar to observations, and a seasonal pattern of variance that is qualitatively similar to observations. All models produce ENSOs that are phase locked to the annual cycle, and all display the `spring barrier' characteristic in their autocorrelation patterns, though in the models this `barrier' occurs during the summer and is less intense than in the observations (inclusion of nonlinear effects is shown to partially remedy this deficiency). The more realistic models also show a decadal variability in the lagged autocorrelation pattern that is qualitatively similar to observations.Analysis of the models shows that the greatest part of the variability comes from perturbations that project onto the first singular vector, which then grow rapidly into the ENSO mode. Essentially, the model output represents many instances of the ENSO mode, with random phase and amplitude, stimulated by the noise through the optimal transient growth of the singular vectors.The limit of predictability for each model is calculated and it is shown that the more realistic (moderately damped) models have worse potential predictability (9-15 months) than the deterministic chaotic models that have been studied widely in the literature. The predictability limits are strongly correlated with the stability of the models' ENSO mode-the more highly damped models having much shorter limits of predictability. A comparison of the two most realistic models shows that even though these models have similar statistics, they have very different predictability limits. The models have a strong seasonal dependence to their predictability limits.The results of this study (with the companion paper) suggest that the linear, stable dynamical model of ENSO is indeed a plausible hypothesis for the observed ENSO. With very reasonable levels of stochastic forcing, the model produces realistic levels of variance, has a realistic spectrum, and qualitatively reproduces the observed seasonal pattern of variance, the autocorrelation pattern, and the ENSO-like decadal variability.

The ten thousand Kims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, Seung Ki; Minnhagen, Petter; Kim, Beom Jun

2011-07-01

In Korean culture, the names of family members are recorded in special family books. This makes it possible to follow the distribution of Korean family names far back in history. It is shown here that these name distributions are well described by a simple null model, the random group formation (RGF) model. This model makes it possible to predict how the name distributions change and these predictions are shown to be borne out. In particular, the RGF model predicts that for married women entering a collection of family books in a certain year, the occurrence of the most common family name 'Kim' should be directly proportional to the total number of married women with the same proportionality constant for all the years. This prediction is also borne out to a high degree. We speculate that it reflects some inherent social stability in the Korean culture. In addition, we obtain an estimate of the total population of the Korean culture down to the year 500 AD, based on the RGF model, and find about ten thousand Kims.

Towards Adaptive Educational Assessments: Predicting Student Performance using Temporal Stability and Data Analytics in Learning Management Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thakur, Gautam; Olama, Mohammed M; McNair, Wade

Data-driven assessments and adaptive feedback are becoming a cornerstone research in educational data analytics and involve developing methods for exploring the unique types of data that come from the educational context. For example, predicting college student performance is crucial for both the students and educational institutions. It can support timely intervention to prevent students from failing a course, increasing efficacy of advising functions, and improving course completion rate. In this paper, we present our efforts in using data analytics that enable educationists to design novel data-driven assessment and feedback mechanisms. In order to achieve this objective, we investigate temporal stabilitymore » of students grades and perform predictive analytics on academic data collected from 2009 through 2013 in one of the most commonly used learning management systems, called Moodle. First, we have identified the data features useful for assessments and predicting student outcomes such as students scores in homework assignments, quizzes, exams, in addition to their activities in discussion forums and their total Grade Point Average(GPA) at the same term they enrolled in the course. Second, time series models in both frequency and time domains are applied to characterize the progression as well as overall projections of the grades. In particular, the model analyzed the stability as well as fluctuation of grades among students during the collegiate years (from freshman to senior) and disciplines. Third, Logistic Regression and Neural Network predictive models are used to identify students as early as possible who are in danger of failing the course they are currently enrolled in. These models compute the likelihood of any given student failing (or passing) the current course. The time series analysis indicates that assessments and continuous feedback are critical for freshman and sophomores (even with easy courses) than for seniors, and those assessments may be provided using the predictive models. Numerical results are presented to evaluate and compare the performance of the developed models and their predictive accuracy. Our results show that there are strong ties associated with the first few weeks for coursework and they have an impact on the design and distribution of individual modules.« less

Model Checking a Byzantine-Fault-Tolerant Self-Stabilizing Protocol for Distributed Clock Synchronization Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malekpour, Mahyar R.

2007-01-01

This report presents the mechanical verification of a simplified model of a rapid Byzantine-fault-tolerant self-stabilizing protocol for distributed clock synchronization systems. This protocol does not rely on any assumptions about the initial state of the system. This protocol tolerates bursts of transient failures, and deterministically converges within a time bound that is a linear function of the self-stabilization period. A simplified model of the protocol is verified using the Symbolic Model Verifier (SMV) [SMV]. The system under study consists of 4 nodes, where at most one of the nodes is assumed to be Byzantine faulty. The model checking effort is focused on verifying correctness of the simplified model of the protocol in the presence of a permanent Byzantine fault as well as confirmation of claims of determinism and linear convergence with respect to the self-stabilization period. Although model checking results of the simplified model of the protocol confirm the theoretical predictions, these results do not necessarily confirm that the protocol solves the general case of this problem. Modeling challenges of the protocol and the system are addressed. A number of abstractions are utilized in order to reduce the state space. Also, additional innovative state space reduction techniques are introduced that can be used in future verification efforts applied to this and other protocols.

Propfan test assessment testbed aircraft stability and control/performance 1/9-scale wind tunnel tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, B. H., Jr.; Tomlin, K. H.; Aljabri, A. S.; Mason, C. A.

1988-01-01

One-ninth scale wind tunnel model tests of the Propfan Test Assessment (PTA) aircraft were performed in three different NASA facilities. Wing and propfan nacelle static pressures, model forces and moments, and flow field at the propfan plane were measured in these tests. Tests started in June 1985 and were completed in January 1987. These data were needed to assure PTA safety of flight, predict PTA performance, and validate analytical codes that will be used to predict flow fields in which the propfan will operate.

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

2001-01-01

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Applications of Protein Thermodynamic Database for Understanding Protein Mutant Stability and Designing Stable Mutants.

PubMed

Gromiha, M Michael; Anoosha, P; Huang, Liang-Tsung

2016-01-01

Protein stability is the free energy difference between unfolded and folded states of a protein, which lies in the range of 5-25 kcal/mol. Experimentally, protein stability is measured with circular dichroism, differential scanning calorimetry, and fluorescence spectroscopy using thermal and denaturant denaturation methods. These experimental data have been accumulated in the form of a database, ProTherm, thermodynamic database for proteins and mutants. It also contains sequence and structure information of a protein, experimental methods and conditions, and literature information. Different features such as search, display, and sorting options and visualization tools have been incorporated in the database. ProTherm is a valuable resource for understanding/predicting the stability of proteins and it can be accessed at http://www.abren.net/protherm/ . ProTherm has been effectively used to examine the relationship among thermodynamics, structure, and function of proteins. We describe the recent progress on the development of methods for understanding/predicting protein stability, such as (1) general trends on mutational effects on stability, (2) relationship between the stability of protein mutants and amino acid properties, (3) applications of protein three-dimensional structures for predicting their stability upon point mutations, (4) prediction of protein stability upon single mutations from amino acid sequence, and (5) prediction methods for addressing double mutants. A list of online resources for predicting has also been provided.

Release modeling and comparison of nanoarchaeosomal, nanoliposomal and pegylated nanoliposomal carriers for paclitaxel.

PubMed

Movahedi, Fatemeh; Ebrahimi Shahmabadi, Hasan; Alavi, Seyed Ebrahim; Koohi Moftakhari Esfahani, Maedeh

2014-09-01

Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women. Recently, delivering by nanocarriers has resulted in a remarkable evolution in treatment of numerous cancers. Lipid nanocarriers are important ones while liposomes and archaeosomes are common lipid nanocarriers. In this work, paclitaxel was used and characterized in nanoliposomal and nanoarchaeosomal form to improve efficiency. To increase stability, efficiency and solubility, polyethylene glycol 2000 (PEG 2000) was added to some samples. MTT assay confirmed effectiveness of nanocarriers on MCF-7 cell line and size measuring validated nano-scale of particles. Nanoarchaeosomal carriers demonstrated highest encapsulation efficiency and lowest release rate. On the other hand, pegylated nanoliposomal carrier showed higher loading efficiency and less release compared with nanoliposomal carrier which verifies effect of PEG on improvement of stability and efficiency. Additionally, release pattern was modeled using artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA). Using ANN modeling for release prediction, resulted in R values of 0.976, 0.989 and 0.999 for nanoliposomal, pegylated nanoliposomal and nanoarchaeosomal paclitaxel and GA modeling led to values of 0.954, 0.951 and 0.976, respectively. ANN modeling was more successful in predicting release compared with the GA strategy.

Landslides! Engaging students in natural hazards and STEM principles through the exploration of landslide analog models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, E. E.; Lechner, H. N.; Brill, K. A.; Lerner, G.; Ramos, E.

2014-12-01

Graduate students at Michigan Technological University developed the "Landslides!" activity to engage middle & high school students participating in summer engineering programs in a hands-on exploration of geologic engineering and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) principles. The inquiry-based lesson plan is aligned to Next Generation Science Standards and is appropriate for 6th-12th grade classrooms. During the activity students focus on the factors contributing to landslide development and engineering practices used to mitigate hazards of slope stability hazards. Students begin by comparing different soil types and by developing predictions of how sediment type may contribute to differences in slope stability. Working in groups, students then build tabletop hill-slope models from the various materials in order to engage in evidence-based reasoning and test their predictions by adding groundwater until each group's modeled slope fails. Lastly students elaborate on their understanding of landslides by designing 'engineering solutions' to mitigate the hazards observed in each model. Post-evaluations from students demonstrate that they enjoyed the hands-on nature of the activity and the application of engineering principles to mitigate a modeled natural hazard.

SteadyCom: Predicting microbial abundances while ensuring community stability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, Siu Hung Joshua; Simons, Margaret N.; Maranas, Costas D.

Genome-scale metabolic modeling has become widespread for analyzing microbial metabolism. Extending this established paradigm to more complex microbial communities is emerging as a promising way to unravel the interactions and biochemical repertoire of these omnipresent systems. While several modeling techniques have been developed for microbial communities, little emphasis has been placed on the need to impose a time-averaged constant growth rate across all members for a community to ensure co-existence and stability. In the absence of this constraint, the faster growing organism will ultimately displace all other microbes in the community. This is particularly important for predicting steady-state microbiota compositionmore » as it imposes significant restrictions on the allowable community membership, composition and phenotypes. In this study, we introduce the SteadyCom optimization framework for predicting metabolic flux distributions consistent with the steady-state requirement. SteadyCom can be rapidly converged by iteratively solving linear programming (LP) problem and the number of iterations is independent of the number of organisms. A significant advantage of SteadyCom is compatibility with flux variability analysis. SteadyCom is first demonstrated for a community of four E. coli double auxotrophic mutants and is then applied to a gut microbiota model consisting of nine species, with representatives from the phyla Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria. In contrast to the direct use of FBA, SteadyCom is able to predict the change in species abundance in response to changes in diets with minimal additional imposed constraints on the model. Furthermore, by randomizing the uptake rates of microbes, an abundance profile with a good agreement to experimental gut microbiota is inferred. SteadyCom provides an important step towards the cross-cutting task of predicting the composition of a microbial community in a given environment.« less

SteadyCom: Predicting microbial abundances while ensuring community stability

DOE PAGES

Chan, Siu Hung Joshua; Simons, Margaret N.; Maranas, Costas D.; ...

2017-05-15

Genome-scale metabolic modeling has become widespread for analyzing microbial metabolism. Extending this established paradigm to more complex microbial communities is emerging as a promising way to unravel the interactions and biochemical repertoire of these omnipresent systems. While several modeling techniques have been developed for microbial communities, little emphasis has been placed on the need to impose a time-averaged constant growth rate across all members for a community to ensure co-existence and stability. In the absence of this constraint, the faster growing organism will ultimately displace all other microbes in the community. This is particularly important for predicting steady-state microbiota compositionmore » as it imposes significant restrictions on the allowable community membership, composition and phenotypes. In this study, we introduce the SteadyCom optimization framework for predicting metabolic flux distributions consistent with the steady-state requirement. SteadyCom can be rapidly converged by iteratively solving linear programming (LP) problem and the number of iterations is independent of the number of organisms. A significant advantage of SteadyCom is compatibility with flux variability analysis. SteadyCom is first demonstrated for a community of four E. coli double auxotrophic mutants and is then applied to a gut microbiota model consisting of nine species, with representatives from the phyla Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria. In contrast to the direct use of FBA, SteadyCom is able to predict the change in species abundance in response to changes in diets with minimal additional imposed constraints on the model. Furthermore, by randomizing the uptake rates of microbes, an abundance profile with a good agreement to experimental gut microbiota is inferred. SteadyCom provides an important step towards the cross-cutting task of predicting the composition of a microbial community in a given environment.« less

A comparative analysis of hazard models for predicting debris flows in Madison County, VA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, Meghan M.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Morgan, Benjamin A.

2001-01-01

During the rainstorm of June 27, 1995, roughly 330-750 mm of rain fell within a sixteen-hour period, initiating floods and over 600 debris flows in a small area (130 km2) of Madison County, Virginia. Field studies showed that the majority (70%) of these debris flows initiated with a thickness of 0.5 to 3.0 m in colluvium on slopes from 17 o to 41 o (Wieczorek et al., 2000). This paper evaluated and compared the approaches of SINMAP, LISA, and Iverson's (2000) transient response model for slope stability analysis by applying each model to the landslide data from Madison County. Of these three stability models, only Iverson's transient response model evaluated stability conditions as a function of time and depth. Iverson?s model would be the preferred method of the three models to evaluate landslide hazards on a regional scale in areas prone to rain-induced landslides as it considers both the transient and spatial response of pore pressure in its calculation of slope stability. The stability calculation used in SINMAP and LISA is similar and utilizes probability distribution functions for certain parameters. Unlike SINMAP that only considers soil cohesion, internal friction angle and rainfall-rate distributions, LISA allows the use of distributed data for all parameters, so it is the preferred model to evaluate slope stability over SINMAP. Results from all three models suggested similar soil and hydrologic properties for triggering the landslides that occurred during the 1995 storm in Madison County, Virginia. The colluvium probably had cohesion of less than 2KPa. The root-soil system is above the failure plane and consequently root strength and tree surcharge had negligible effect on slope stability. The result that the final location of the water table was near the ground surface is supported by the water budget analysis of the rainstorm conducted by Smith et al. (1996).

Predicting Relationship Stability Among Midlife African American Couples

PubMed Central

Cutrona, Carolyn E.; Russell, Daniel W.; Burzette, Rebecca G.; Wesner, Kristin A.; Bryant, Chalandra M.

2012-01-01

Objective This study examined predictors of relationship stability over 5 years among heterosexual cohabiting and married African American couples raising an elementary-school-age child. The vulnerability–stress–adaptation model of relationships (Karney & Bradbury, 1995) guided the investigation. Contextual variables were conceptualized as important determinants of education and income, which in turn influence family structure, stress, and relationship quality and stability. Religiosity was tested as a resource variable that enhances relationship stability. Method Couples (N = 207) were drawn from the Family and Community Health Study. Variables assessed at Wave 1 (education, income, religiosity, biological vs. stepfamily status, marital status, financial strain, and relationship quality) were used to predict relationship stability 5 years later. Results Higher levels of education were associated with higher income, lower financial strain, and family structures that research has shown to be more stable (marriage rather than cohabitation and biological-family rather than stepfamily status; Bumpass & Lu, 2000). These variables, in turn, influenced relationship quality and stability. Religiosity, an important resource in the lives of African Americans, promoted relationship stability through its association with marriage, biological-family status, and women’s relationship quality. Conclusions Enhancing the stability of African American couples’ relationships will require changes in societal conditions that limit opportunities for education and income and weaken relationship bonds. Programs to assist couples with blended families are needed, and incorporation of spirituality into culturally sensitive relationship interventions for African American couples may also prove beneficial. PMID:22004304

A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sameallah, S.; Legrand, V.; Saint-Sulpice, L.; Kadkhodaei, M.; Arbab Chirani, S.

2015-02-01

Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure.

Self-organized synchronization of digital phase-locked loops with delayed coupling in theory and experiment

PubMed Central

Wetzel, Lucas; Jörg, David J.; Pollakis, Alexandros; Rave, Wolfgang; Fettweis, Gerhard; Jülicher, Frank

2017-01-01

Self-organized synchronization occurs in a variety of natural and technical systems but has so far only attracted limited attention as an engineering principle. In distributed electronic systems, such as antenna arrays and multi-core processors, a common time reference is key to coordinate signal transmission and processing. Here we show how the self-organized synchronization of mutually coupled digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs) can provide robust clocking in large-scale systems. We develop a nonlinear phase description of individual and coupled DPLLs that takes into account filter impulse responses and delayed signal transmission. Our phase model permits analytical expressions for the collective frequencies of synchronized states, the analysis of stability properties and the time scale of synchronization. In particular, we find that signal filtering introduces stability transitions that are not found in systems without filtering. To test our theoretical predictions, we designed and carried out experiments using networks of off-the-shelf DPLL integrated circuitry. We show that the phase model can quantitatively predict the existence, frequency, and stability of synchronized states. Our results demonstrate that mutually delay-coupled DPLLs can provide robust and self-organized synchronous clocking in electronic systems. PMID:28207779

Physical modeling of river spanning rock structures: Evaluating interstitial flow, local hydraulics, downstream scour development, and structure stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, K.L.; Thornton, C.I.; Mefford, B.; Holmquist-Johnson, C. L.

2009-01-01

Rock weir and ramp structures uniquely serve a necessary role in river management: to meet water deliveries in an ecologically sound manner. Uses include functioning as low head diversion dams, permitting fish passage, creating habitat diversity, and stabilizing stream banks and profiles. Existing information on design and performance of in-stream rock structures does not provide the guidance necessary to implement repeatable and sustainable construction and retrofit techniques. As widespread use of rock structures increases, the need for reliable design methods with a broad range of applicability at individual sites grows as well. Rigorous laboratory testing programs were implemented at the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and at Colorado State University (CSU) as part of a multifaceted research project focused on expanding the current knowledge base and developing design methods to improve the success rate of river spanning rock structures in meeting project goals. Physical modeling at Reclamation is being used to measure, predict, and reduce interstitial flow through rock ramps. CSU is using physical testing to quantify and predict scour development downstream of rock weirs and its impact on the stability of rock structures. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Field findings about milk ethanol stability: a first report of interrelationship between α-lactalbumin and lactose.

PubMed

Fagnani, Rafael; de Araújo, João Paulo Andrade; Botaro, Bruno Garcia

2018-05-01

Milk ethanol stability is not only associated with microbiological acidification, but is a phenomenon with many variables that influence the balance of soluble salts, mainly calcium ion activity. On this basis, we wanted to find out more about milk ethanol stability by studying its relationship with milk protein fractions and others major components. The influence of milk composition on ethanol stability was assessed through a predictive model comprising 180 individual raw milk samples. An additional model was used to assess the ethanol stability status as a response to the proteins fractions quantified by electrophoresis. Of the total samples, 68% were classified as stable and 32% as unstable to alcohol. Milk ethanol instability increased at low values of lactose content and high values of ash percentage. α-Lactalbumin (α-La) was also associated with ethanol stability, and the higher the α-La percentage the lower were the chances of ethanol instability. The lower values of α-La in unstable milk samples might be related to lower content of lactose, as α-La promotes lactose synthesis, a key component for the osmotic balance of milk and thus its ethanol stability. This is the first field report linking ethanol stability indirectly with α-La. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

On the linear stability of blood flow through model capillary networks.

PubMed

Davis, Jeffrey M

2014-12-01

Under the approximation that blood behaves as a continuum, a numerical implementation is presented to analyze the linear stability of capillary blood flow through model tree and honeycomb networks that are based on the microvascular structures of biological tissues. The tree network is comprised of a cascade of diverging bifurcations, in which a parent vessel bifurcates into two descendent vessels, while the honeycomb network also contains converging bifurcations, in which two parent vessels merge into one descendent vessel. At diverging bifurcations, a cell partitioning law is required to account for the nonuniform distribution of red blood cells as a function of the flow rate of blood into each descendent vessel. A linearization of the governing equations produces a system of delay differential equations involving the discharge hematocrit entering each network vessel and leads to a nonlinear eigenvalue problem. All eigenvalues in a specified region of the complex plane are captured using a transformation based on contour integrals to construct a linear eigenvalue problem with identical eigenvalues, which are then determined using a standard QR algorithm. The predicted value of the dimensionless exponent in the cell partitioning law at the instability threshold corresponds to a supercritical Hopf bifurcation in numerical simulations of the equations governing unsteady blood flow. Excellent agreement is found between the predictions of the linear stability analysis and nonlinear simulations. The relaxation of the assumption of plug flow made in previous stability analyses typically has a small, quantitative effect on the stability results that depends on the specific network structure. This implementation of the stability analysis can be applied to large networks with arbitrary structure provided only that the connectivity among the network segments is known.

A Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Approach with Local Search for Predicting Protein Folding.

PubMed

Yang, Cheng-Hong; Lin, Yu-Shiun; Chuang, Li-Yeh; Chang, Hsueh-Wei

2017-10-01

The hydrophobic-polar (HP) model is commonly used for predicting protein folding structures and hydrophobic interactions. This study developed a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based algorithm combined with local search algorithms; specifically, the high exploration PSO (HEPSO) algorithm (which can execute global search processes) was combined with three local search algorithms (hill-climbing algorithm, greedy algorithm, and Tabu table), yielding the proposed HE-L-PSO algorithm. By using 20 known protein structures, we evaluated the performance of the HE-L-PSO algorithm in predicting protein folding in the HP model. The proposed HE-L-PSO algorithm exhibited favorable performance in predicting both short and long amino acid sequences with high reproducibility and stability, compared with seven reported algorithms. The HE-L-PSO algorithm yielded optimal solutions for all predicted protein folding structures. All HE-L-PSO-predicted protein folding structures possessed a hydrophobic core that is similar to normal protein folding.

The moon as a radiometric reference source for on-orbit sensor stability calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, T.C.

2009-01-01

The wealth of data generated by the world's Earth-observing satellites, now spanning decades, allows the construction of long-term climate records. A key consideration for detecting climate trends is precise quantification of temporal changes in sensor calibration on-orbit. For radiometer instruments in the solar reflectance wavelength range (near-UV to shortwave-IR), the Moon can be viewed as a solar diffuser with exceptional stability properties. A model for the lunar spectral irradiance that predicts the geometric variations in the Moon's brightness with ???1% precision has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey in Flagstaff, AZ. Lunar model results corresponding to a series of Moon observations taken by an instrument can be used to stabilize sensor calibration with sub-percent per year precision, as demonstrated by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). The inherent stability of the Moon and the operational model to utilize the lunar irradiance quantity provide the Moon as a reference source for monitoring radiometric calibration in orbit. This represents an important capability for detecting terrestrial climate change from space-based radiometric measurements.

A Coupled Aeroelastic Model for Launch Vehicle Stability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, Jeb S.

2010-01-01

A technique for incorporating distributed aerodynamic normal forces and aeroelastic coupling effects into a stability analysis model of a launch vehicle is presented. The formulation augments the linear state-space launch vehicle plant dynamics that are compactly derived as a system of coupled linear differential equations representing small angular and translational perturbations of the rigid body, nozzle, and sloshing propellant coupled with normal vibration of a set of orthogonal modes. The interaction of generalized forces due to aeroelastic coupling and thrust can be expressed as a set of augmenting non-diagonal stiffness and damping matrices in modal coordinates with no penalty on system order. While the eigenvalues of the structural response in the presence of thrust and aeroelastic forcing can be predicted at a given flight condition independent of the remaining degrees of freedom, the coupled model provides confidence in closed-loop stability in the presence of rigid-body, slosh, and actuator dynamics. Simulation results are presented that characterize the coupled dynamic response of the Ares I launch vehicle and the impact of aeroelasticity on control system stability margins.

ECCD-induced tearing mode stabilization in coupled IPS/NIMROD/GENRAY HPC simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Thomas; Kruger, S. E.; Held, E. D.; Harvey, R. W.; Elwasif, W. R.; Schnack, D. D.; SWIM Project Team

2011-10-01

We present developments toward an integrated, predictive model for determining optimal ECCD-based NTM stabilization strategies in ITER. We demonstrate the capability of the SWIM Project's Integrated Plasma Simulator (IPS) framework to choreograph multiple executions of, and data exchanges between, physics codes modeling various spatiotemporal scales of this coupled RF/MHD problem on several thousand HPC processors. As NIMROD evolves fluid equations to model bulk plasma behavior, self-consistent propagation/deposition of RF power in the ensuing plasma profiles is calculated by GENRAY. A third code (QLCALC) then interfaces with computational geometry packages to construct the RF-induced quasilinear diffusion tensor from NIMROD/GENRAY data, and the moments of this tensor (entering as additional terms in NIMROD's fluid equations due to the disparity in RF/MHD spatiotemporal scales) influence the dynamics of current, momentum, and energy evolution. Initial results are shown to correctly capture the physics of magnetic island stabilization [Jenkins et al., PoP 17, 012502 (2010)]; we also discuss the development of a numerical plasma control system for active feedback stabilization of tearing modes. Funded by USDoE SciDAC.

Predicting catalyst-support interactions between metal nanoparticles and amorphous silica supports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewing, Christopher S.; Veser, Götz; McCarthy, Joseph J.; Lambrecht, Daniel S.; Johnson, J. Karl

2016-10-01

Metal-support interactions significantly affect the stability and activity of supported catalytic nanoparticles (NPs), yet there is no simple and reliable method for estimating NP-support interactions, especially for amorphous supports. We present an approach for rapid prediction of catalyst-support interactions between Pt NPs and amorphous silica supports for NPs of various sizes and shapes. We use density functional theory calculations of 13 atom Pt clusters on model amorphous silica supports to determine linear correlations relating catalyst properties to NP-support interactions. We show that these correlations can be combined with fast discrete element method simulations to predict adhesion energy and NP net charge for NPs of larger sizes and different shapes. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this approach can be successfully transferred to Pd, Au, Ni, and Fe NPs. This approach can be used to quickly screen stability and net charge transfer and leads to a better fundamental understanding of catalyst-support interactions.

Resolving the biodiversity paradox

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Mike Dieta; Sukhendu Chakraborty; Pankaj K.Ibeanez Agarwal; Shannon LaDeau; Mike Wolosin

2007-01-01

The paradox of biodiversity involves three elements, (i) mathematical models predict that species must differ in specific ways in order to coexist as stable ecological communities, (ii) such differences are difficult to identify, yet (iii) there is widespread evidence of stability in natural communities.

Systems Studies of DDT Transport

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, H. L.; And Others

1970-01-01

Major consequences of present and additional environmental quantities of DDT pesticide are predictable by mathematical models of transport, accumulation and concentration mechanisms in the Wisconsin regional ecosystem. High solubility and stability produce increased DDT concentrations at high organism trophic levels within world biosphere…

'Enzyme Test Bench': A biochemical application of the multi-rate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachinskiy, K.; Schultze, H.; Boy, M.; Büchs, J.

2008-11-01

In the expanding field of 'white biotechnology' enzymes are frequently applied to catalyze the biochemical reaction from a resource material to a valuable product. Evolutionary designed to catalyze the metabolism in any life form, they selectively accelerate complex reactions under physiological conditions. Modern techniques, such as directed evolution, have been developed to satisfy the increasing demand on enzymes. Applying these techniques together with rational protein design, we aim at improving of enzymes' activity, selectivity and stability. To tap the full potential of these techniques, it is essential to combine them with adequate screening methods. Nowadays a great number of high throughput colorimetric and fluorescent enzyme assays are applied to measure the initial enzyme activity with high throughput. However, the prediction of enzyme long term stability within short experiments is still a challenge. A new high throughput technique for enzyme characterization with specific attention to the long term stability, called 'Enzyme Test Bench', is presented. The concept of the Enzyme Test Bench consists of short term enzyme tests conducted under partly extreme conditions to predict the enzyme long term stability under moderate conditions. The technique is based on the mathematical modeling of temperature dependent enzyme activation and deactivation. Adapting the temperature profiles in sequential experiments by optimum non-linear experimental design, the long term deactivation effects can be purposefully accelerated and detected within hours. During the experiment the enzyme activity is measured online to estimate the model parameters from the obtained data. Thus, the enzyme activity and long term stability can be calculated as a function of temperature. The results of the characterization, based on micro liter format experiments of hours, are in good agreement with the results of long term experiments in 1L format. Thus, the new technique allows for both: the enzyme screening with regard to the long term stability and the choice of the optimal process temperature. The presented article gives a successful example for the application of multi-rate modeling, experimental design and parameter estimation within biochemical engineering. At the same time, it shows the limitations of the methods at the state of the art and addresses the current problems to the applied mathematics community.

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

PubMed

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

Transient hazard model using radar data for predicting debris flows in Madison County, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, M.M.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Morgan, B.A.

2004-01-01

During the rainstorm of June 27, 1995, roughly 330-750 mm of rain fell within a 16-hour period, initiating floods and over 600 debris flows in a small area (130 km2) of Madison County, VA. We developed a distributed version of Iverson's transient response model for regional slope stability analysis for the Madison County debris flows. This version of the model evaluates pore-pressure head response and factor of safety on a regional scale in areas prone to rainfall-induced shallow (<2-3 m) landslides. These calculations used soil properties of shear strength and hydraulic conductivity from laboratory measurements of soil samples collected from field sites where debris flows initiated. Rainfall data collected by radar every 6 minutes provided a basis for calculating the temporal variation of slope stability during the storm. The results demonstrate that the spatial and temporal variation of the factor of safety correlates with the movement of the storm cell. When the rainstorm was treated as two separate rainfall events and a larger hydraulic conductivity and friction angle than the laboratory values were used, the timing and location of landslides predicted by the model were in closer agreement with eyewitness observations of debris flows. Application of spatially variable initial pre-storm water table depth and soil properties may improve both the spatial and temporal prediction of instability.

Deviation from symmetrically self-similar branching in trees predicts altered hydraulics, mechanics, light interception and metabolic scaling.

PubMed

Smith, Duncan D; Sperry, John S; Enquist, Brian J; Savage, Van M; McCulloh, Katherine A; Bentley, Lisa P

2014-01-01

The West, Brown, Enquist (WBE) model derives symmetrically self-similar branching to predict metabolic scaling from hydraulic conductance, K, (a metabolism proxy) and tree mass (or volume, V). The original prediction was Kα V(0.75). We ask whether trees differ from WBE symmetry and if it matters for plant function and scaling. We measure tree branching and model how architecture influences K, V, mechanical stability, light interception and metabolic scaling. We quantified branching architecture by measuring the path fraction, Pf : mean/maximum trunk-to-twig pathlength. WBE symmetry produces the maximum, Pf = 1.0. We explored tree morphospace using a probability-based numerical model constrained only by biomechanical principles. Real tree Pf ranged from 0.930 (nearly symmetric) to 0.357 (very asymmetric). At each modeled tree size, a reduction in Pf led to: increased K; decreased V; increased mechanical stability; and decreased light absorption. When Pf was ontogenetically constant, strong asymmetry only slightly steepened metabolic scaling. The Pf ontogeny of real trees, however, was 'U' shaped, resulting in size-dependent metabolic scaling that exceeded 0.75 in small trees before falling below 0.65. Architectural diversity appears to matter considerably for whole-tree hydraulics, mechanics, photosynthesis and potentially metabolic scaling. Optimal architectures likely exist that maximize carbon gain per structural investment. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Landslide Hazard Probability Derived from Inherent and Dynamic Determinants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan

2016-04-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach combines an empirical inherent landslide probability with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining routed recharge from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model run in a Monte Carlo simulation. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by adjusting the dynamic model of stability with an empirically-based scalar representing the inherent stability of the landscape, creating a probabilistic quantitative measure of geohazard prediction at a 30-m resolution. Climatology, soil, and topography control the dynamic nature of hillslope stability and the empirical information further improves the discriminating ability of the integrated model. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex, a rugged terrain with nearly 2,700 m (9,000 ft) of vertical relief, covering 2757 sq km (1064 sq mi) in northern Washington State, U.S.A.

Effects of Sulfate, Chloride, and Bicarbonate on Iron Stability in a PVC-U Drinking Pipe

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiaying; Tao, Tao; Yan, Hexiang

2017-01-01

In order to describe iron stability in plastic pipes and to ensure the drinking water security, the influence factors and rules for iron adsorption and release were studied, dependent on the Unplasticized poly (vinyl chloride) (PVC-U) drinking pipes employed in this research. In this paper, sulfate, chloride, and bicarbonate, as well as synthesized models, were chosen to investigate the iron stability on the inner wall of PVC-U drinking pipes. The existence of the three kinds of anions could significantly affect the process of iron adsorption, and a positive association was found between the level of anion concentration and the adsorption rate. However, the scaling formed on the inner surface of the pipes would be released into the water under certain conditions. The Larson Index (LI), used for a synthetic consideration of anion effects on iron stability, was selected to investigate the iron release under multi-factor conditions. Moreover, a well fitted linear model was established to gain a better understanding of iron release under multi-factor conditions. The simulation results demonstrated that the linear model was better fitted than the LI model for the prediction of iron release. PMID:28629192

Multiple-scale structures: from Faraday waves to soft-matter quasicrystals.

PubMed

Savitz, Samuel; Babadi, Mehrtash; Lifshitz, Ron

2018-05-01

For many years, quasicrystals were observed only as solid-state metallic alloys, yet current research is now actively exploring their formation in a variety of soft materials, including systems of macromolecules, nanoparticles and colloids. Much effort is being invested in understanding the thermodynamic properties of these soft-matter quasicrystals in order to predict and possibly control the structures that form, and hopefully to shed light on the broader yet unresolved general questions of quasicrystal formation and stability. Moreover, the ability to control the self-assembly of soft quasicrystals may contribute to the development of novel photonics or other applications based on self-assembled metamaterials. Here a path is followed, leading to quantitative stability predictions, that starts with a model developed two decades ago to treat the formation of multiple-scale quasiperiodic Faraday waves (standing wave patterns in vibrating fluid surfaces) and which was later mapped onto systems of soft particles, interacting via multiple-scale pair potentials. The article reviews, and substantially expands, the quantitative predictions of these models, while correcting a few discrepancies in earlier calculations, and presents new analytical methods for treating the models. In so doing, a number of new stable quasicrystalline structures are found with octagonal, octadecagonal and higher-order symmetries, some of which may, it is hoped, be observed in future experiments.

Insert Tidal Here: Finding Stability of Galilean Satellite Interiors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, M.; Bills, B. G.; Mitchell, J.; Rhoden, A.

2017-12-01

The tidal environment is often hypothesized as a cause of surface expression in the satellites of the outer solar system. In two notable cases, Io's volcanism is thought to be driven by tidal heating of its mantle while the shattered surface of Europa's ice shell is said to be generated by tidal stresses in that ice. Being adjacent moons of Jupiter, these satellites give us a unique opportunity to apply a single set of general coupled models at each body to predict how one model can predict the heat generation and flow, strain and stress states, and structural parameters for each body. We include the effects of interior evolution into the tidal environment in addition to an evolving orbit. We find that the interiors of Io and Europa will evolve, as a consequence of the heat transfer from interior to surface, and stable structural and heat flow conditions are found. Then as their orbits evolve, perturbed by the mutual interactions of the Laplace mean motion resonance, those conditions of structural and heat stability also change. In particular, we find that at current orbital conditions there is sufficient heat to completely melt Io models for which a convecting interior is capped by a conducting lid. This argues for the presence of a non dissipating (or barely dissipating) core below the mantle, which future Io structure models should include. For the Europa model at current orbit, we use a silicate interior under an ocean capped by a two layer ice; convecting below with a conducting surface. We find stability in heat and structure occurs when the lower ice melts and recedes until the shell is roughly 50km thick. We present a variety of plausible structures for these bodies, and track how the stability of those structures trend as the orbit (in particular the orbital eccentricity, mean motion, and obliquity) change. We show how the Love numbers, layer thicknesses, surface heat flow, and orbital parameters are all linked. For Europa, upcoming measurements from Clipper should provide the necessary constraints to tune our model for the present day. This will also allow us to use today's initial conditions so that we can predict the history of the Galilean satellite's evolution as well as the changes we expect for their future.

Internal Progressive Failure in Deep-Seated Landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yerro, Alba; Pinyol, Núria M.; Alonso, Eduardo E.

2016-06-01

Except for simple sliding motions, the stability of a slope does not depend only on the resistance of the basal failure surface. It is affected by the internal distortion of the moving mass, which plays an important role on the stability and post-failure behaviour of a landslide. The paper examines the stability conditions and the post-failure behaviour of a compound landslide whose geometry is inspired by one of the representative cross-sections of Vajont landslide. The brittleness of the mobilized rock mass was described by a strain-softening Mohr-Coulomb model, whose parameters were derived from previous contributions. The analysis was performed by means of a MPM computer code, which is capable of modelling the whole instability procedure in a unified calculation. The gravity action has been applied to initialize the stress state. This step mobilizes part of the strength along a shearing band located just above the kink of the basal surface, leading to the formation a kinematically admissible mechanism. The overall instability is triggered by an increase of water level. The increase of pore water pressures reduces the effective stresses within the slope and it leads to a progressive failure mechanism developing along an internal shearing band which controls the stability of the compound slope. The effect of the basal shearing resistance has been analysed during the post-failure stage. If no shearing strength is considered (as predicted by a thermal pressurization analysis), the model predicts a response similar to actual observations, namely a maximum sliding velocity of 25 m/s and a run-out close to 500 m.

Kinetics and mechanical stability of the fibril state control fibril formation time of polypeptide chains: A computational study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouza, Maksim; Co, Nguyen Truong; Li, Mai Suan; Kmiecik, Sebastian; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kloczkowski, Andrzej; Buhimschi, Irina Alexandra

2018-06-01

Fibril formation resulting from protein misfolding and aggregation is a hallmark of several neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. Despite much progress in the understanding of the protein aggregation process, the factors governing fibril formation rates and fibril stability have not been fully understood. Using lattice models, we have shown that the fibril formation time is controlled by the kinetic stability of the fibril state but not by its energy. Having performed all-atom explicit solvent molecular dynamics simulations with the GROMOS43a1 force field for full-length amyloid beta peptides Aβ40 and Aβ42 and truncated peptides, we demonstrated that kinetic stability can be accessed via mechanical stability in such a way that the higher the mechanical stability or the kinetic stability, the faster the fibril formation. This result opens up a new way for predicting fibril formation rates based on mechanical stability that may be easily estimated by steered molecular dynamics.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J. F.; Tasooji, A.

1985-01-01

This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system is composed of a low pressure, plasma sprayed applied, oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating. The other system is an air plasma sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer.

Kinetically accessible yield (KAY) for redirection of metabolism to produce exo-metabolites

DOE PAGES

Lafontaine Rivera, Jimmy G.; Theisen, Matthew K.; Chen, Po-Wei; ...

2017-04-05

The product formation yield (product formed per unit substrate consumed) is often the most important performance indicator in metabolic engineering. Until now, the actual yield cannot be predicted, but it can be bounded by its maximum theoretical value. The maximum theoretical yield is calculated by considering the stoichiometry of the pathways and cofactor regeneration involved. Here in this paper we found that in many cases, dynamic stability becomes an issue when excessive pathway flux is drawn to a product. This constraint reduces the yield and renders the maximal theoretical yield too loose to be predictive. We propose a more realisticmore » quantity, defined as the kinetically accessible yield (KAY) to predict the maximum accessible yield for a given flux alteration. KAY is either determined by the point of instability, beyond which steady states become unstable and disappear, or a local maximum before becoming unstable. Thus, KAY is the maximum flux that can be redirected for a given metabolic engineering strategy without losing stability. Strictly speaking, calculation of KAY requires complete kinetic information. With limited or no kinetic information, an Ensemble Modeling strategy can be used to determine a range of likely values for KAY, including an average prediction. We first apply the KAY concept with a toy model to demonstrate the principle of kinetic limitations on yield. We then used a full-scale E. coli model (193 reactions, 153 metabolites) and this approach was successful in E. coli for predicting production of isobutanol: the calculated KAY values are consistent with experimental data for three genotypes previously published.« less

Predictive control of thermal state of blast furnace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbasova, T. A.; Filimonova, A. A.

2018-05-01

The work describes the structure of the model for predictive control of the thermal state of a blast furnace. The proposed model contains the following input parameters: coke rate; theoretical combustion temperature, comprising: natural gas consumption, blasting temperature, humidity, oxygen, blast furnace cooling water; blast furnace gas utilization rate. The output parameter is the cast iron temperature. The results for determining the cast iron temperature were obtained following the identification using the Hammerstein-Wiener model. The result of solving the cast iron temperature stabilization problem was provided for the calculated values of process parameters of the target area of the respective blast furnace operation mode.

Applications of system identification methods to the prediction of helicopter stability, control and handling characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padfield, G. D.; Duval, R. K.

1982-01-01

A set of results on rotorcraft system identification is described. Flight measurements collected on an experimental Puma helicopter are reviewed and some notable characteristics highlighted. Following a brief review of previous work in rotorcraft system identification, the results of state estimation and model structure estimation processes applied to the Puma data are presented. The results, which were obtained using NASA developed software, are compared with theoretical predictions of roll, yaw and pitching moment derivatives for a 6 degree of freedom model structure. Anomalies are reported. The theoretical methods used are described. A framework for reduced order modelling is outlined.

The relation of bifurations in a biaxially loaded rubber sheet and the constitutive modeling of rubber

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haslach, H.W. Jr.

1995-12-31

Treloar`s experiments on a thin rubber sheet under in-plane biaxial tensile loads produced asymmetric as well as equal in-plane stretches. At two loads, the two stretches differed by 7.5% and 12.4% respectively. At an intermediate load, there was a stable equal stretches state. Treloar later said that relaxation was negligible since the results were reproducible and independent of the order of force application. Specimen anisotropy and lack of strain uniformity were also eliminated as a cause. Kearsely first pointed out the significance of these experiments to studies of elastic stability of rubber models. The predictability of this result is amore » test for the validity of the various constitutive models for rubber. First, Ogden`s plane stress stability and bifurcation criteria are reviewed. A coordinate transformation of a generalized energy function for the biaxially loaded sheet makes it possible to describe the Mooney-Rivlin bifurcation as a cusp catastrophe and to verify that the neo-Hookean and other classical models have no bifurcations. The Mooney-Rivlin model predicts unstable equal stretch states above the bifurcation value, but Treloar`s experiments contradict this. These models cannot, then, be the correct constitutive models for rubber. Preliminary ideas on the conditions that an isothermal constitutive model must satisfy to reproduce Treloar`s experiments are proposed. A thermoelastic generalization of the Mooney-Rivlin model, developed with N. N. Zeng, predicts that raising the temperature slightly lowers the value of the bifurcation load. Nonequilibrium processes such as relaxation or sinusoidal loading are modeled using a generalized energy function in place of classical viscoelastic constitutive relations.« less

Height extrapolation of wind data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mikhail, A.S.

1982-11-01

Hourly average data for a period of 1 year from three tall meteorological towers - the Erie tower in Colorado, the Goodnoe Hills tower in Washington and the WKY-TV tower in Oklahoma - were used to analyze the wind shear exponent variabiilty with various parameters such as thermal stability, anemometer level wind speed, projection height and surface roughness. Different proposed models for prediction of height variability of short-term average wind speeds were discussed. Other models that predict the height dependence of Weilbull distribution parameters were tested. The observed power law exponent for all three towers showed strong dependence on themore » anemometer level wind speed and stability (nighttime and daytime). It also exhibited a high degree of dependence on extrapolation height with respect to anemometer height. These dependences became less severe as the anemometer level wind speeds were increased due to the turbulent mixing of the atmospheric boundary layer. The three models used for Weibull distribution parameter extrapolation were he velocity-dependent power law model (Justus), the velocity, surface roughness, and height-dependent model (Mikhail) and the velocity and surface roughness-dependent model (NASA). The models projected the scale parameter C fairly accurately for the Goodnoe Hills and WKY-TV towers and were less accurate for the Erie tower. However, all models overestimated the C value. The maximum error for the Mikhail model was less than 2% for Goodnoe Hills, 6% for WKY-TV and 28% for Erie. The error associated with the prediction of the shape factor (K) was similar for the NASA, Mikhail and Justus models. It ranged from 20 to 25%. The effect of the misestimation of hub-height distribution parameters (C and K) on average power output is briefly discussed.« less

Underestimation of boreal soil carbon stocks by mathematical soil carbon models linked to soil nutrient status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina A.; Hashimoto, Shoji; Stendahl, Johan; Dahlgren, Jonas; Karltun, Erik; Lehtonen, Aleksi

2016-08-01

Inaccurate estimate of the largest terrestrial carbon pool, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, is the major source of uncertainty in simulating feedback of climate warming on ecosystem-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange by process-based ecosystem and soil carbon models. Although the models need to simplify complex environmental processes of soil carbon sequestration, in a large mosaic of environments a missing key driver could lead to a modeling bias in predictions of SOC stock change.We aimed to evaluate SOC stock estimates of process-based models (Yasso07, Q, and CENTURY soil sub-model v4) against a massive Swedish forest soil inventory data set (3230 samples) organized by a recursive partitioning method into distinct soil groups with underlying SOC stock development linked to physicochemical conditions.For two-thirds of measurements all models predicted accurate SOC stock levels regardless of the detail of input data, e.g., whether they ignored or included soil properties. However, in fertile sites with high N deposition, high cation exchange capacity, or moderately increased soil water content, Yasso07 and Q models underestimated SOC stocks. In comparison to Yasso07 and Q, accounting for the site-specific soil characteristics (e. g. clay content and topsoil mineral N) by CENTURY improved SOC stock estimates for sites with high clay content, but not for sites with high N deposition.Our analysis suggested that the soils with poorly predicted SOC stocks, as characterized by the high nutrient status and well-sorted parent material, indeed have had other predominant drivers of SOC stabilization lacking in the models, presumably the mycorrhizal organic uptake and organo-mineral stabilization processes. Our results imply that the role of soil nutrient status as regulator of organic matter mineralization has to be re-evaluated, since correct SOC stocks are decisive for predicting future SOC change and soil CO2 efflux.

Improving the Long-Term Stability of Atmospheric Surface Deformation Predictions by Mitigating the Effects of Orography Updates in Operational Weather Forecast Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dill, Robert; Bergmann-Wolf, Inga; Thomas, Maik; Dobslaw, Henryk

2016-04-01

The global numerical weather prediction model routinely operated at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is typically updated about two times a year to incorporate the most recent improvements in the numerical scheme, the physical model or the data assimilation procedures into the system for steadily improving daily weather forecasting quality. Even though such changes frequently affect the long-term stability of meteorological quantities, data from the ECMWF deterministic model is often preferred over alternatively available atmospheric re-analyses due to both the availability of the data in near real-time and the substantially higher spatial resolution. However, global surface pressure time-series, which are crucial for the interpretation of geodetic observables, such as Earth rotation, surface deformation, and the Earth's gravity field, are in particular affected by changes in the surface orography of the model associated with every major change in horizontal resolution happened, e.g., in February 2006, January 2010, and May 2015 in case of the ECMWF operational model. In this contribution, we present an algorithm to harmonize surface pressure time-series from the operational ECMWF model by projecting them onto a time-invariant reference topography under consideration of the time-variable atmospheric density structure. The effectiveness of the method will be assessed globally in terms of pressure anomalies. In addition, we will discuss the impact of the method on predictions of crustal deformations based on ECMWF input, which have been recently made available by GFZ Potsdam.

Musculoskeletal Modeling of the Lumbar Spine to Explore Functional Interactions between Back Muscle Loads and Intervertebral Disk Multiphysics

PubMed Central

Toumanidou, Themis; Noailly, Jérôme

2015-01-01

During daily activities, complex biomechanical interactions influence the biophysical regulation of intervertebral disks (IVDs), and transfers of mechanical loads are largely controlled by the stabilizing action of spine muscles. Muscle and other internal forces cannot be easily measured directly in the lumbar spine. Hence, biomechanical models are important tools for the evaluation of the loads in those tissues involved in low-back disorders. Muscle force estimations in most musculoskeletal models mainly rely, however, on inverse calculations and static optimizations that limit the predictive power of the numerical calculations. In order to contribute to the development of predictive systems, we coupled a predictive muscle model with the passive resistance of the spine tissues, in a L3–S1 musculoskeletal finite element model with osmo-poromechanical IVD descriptions. The model included 46 fascicles of the major back muscles that act on the lower spine. The muscle model interacted with activity-related loads imposed to the osteoligamentous structure, as standing position and night rest were simulated through distributed upper body mass and free IVD swelling, respectively. Calculations led to intradiscal pressure values within ranges of values measured in vivo. Disk swelling led to muscle activation and muscle force distributions that seemed particularly appropriate to counterbalance the anterior body mass effect in standing. Our simulations pointed out a likely existence of a functional balance between stretch-induced muscle activation and IVD multiphysics toward improved mechanical stability of the lumbar spine understanding. This balance suggests that proper night rest contributes to mechanically strengthen the spine during day activity. PMID:26301218

A nomogram for interpreting slope stability of fine-grained deposits in modern and ancient-marine environments.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, J.S.; Sangrey, D.A.; Fugate, J.K.

1985-01-01

This nomogram was designed to aid in interpreting the causes of mass movement in modern and ancient settings, to provide a basis for evaluating and predicting slope stability under given conditions and to further the understanding of the relationships among the several key factors that control slope stability. Design of the nomogram is based on effective stress and combines consolidation theory as applicable to depositional environments with the infinite-slope model of slope-stability analysis. If infinite-slope conditions are assumed to exist, the effective overburden stress can be used to derive a factor of safety against static slope failure by using the angle of internal friction and the slope angle. -from Authors

Interdisciplinary challenges in the study of power grid resilience and stability and their relation to extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heitzig, J.; Fujiwara, N.; Aihara, K.; Kurths, J.

2014-10-01

This topical issue collects contributions to the interdisciplinary study of power grid stability in face of increasing volatility of energy production and consumption due to increasing renewable energy infeed and changing climatic conditions. The individual papers focus on different aspects of this field and bring together modern achievements from various disciplines, in particular complex systems science, nonlinear data analysis, control theory, electrical engineering, and climatology. Main topics considered here are prediction and volatility of renewable infeed, modelling and theoretical analysis of power grid topology, dynamics and stability, relationships between stability and complex network topology, and improvements via topological changes or control. Impacts for the design of smart power grids are discussed in detail.

Predicting Suicidal Ideation in Adolescent Boys and Girls: The Role of Psychological Maturity, Personality Traits, Depression and Life Satisfaction.

PubMed

Morales-Vives, Fabia; Dueñas, Jorge Manuel

2018-04-10

In recent years, suicide rates have increased in adolescents and the young population, so these age groups are considered as populations at risk. Considering that suicidal ideation is the first sign of possible future suicide behavior, the objective of this study is to determine the relative importance of psychological maturity, personality, depression and life satisfaction in predicting suicidal ideation in adolescents. Results show that depressive symptoms is the variable that best predicts suicidal ideation, but psychological maturity, life satisfaction and emotional stability are predictors as well (R2 = .51, p < .001). However, the Multigroup Structural Equation Models analyses carried out show that emotional stability has an indirect relationship with suicidal ideation, through its relationship with depressive symptoms, life satisfaction and identity. Two Multigroup Structural Equation Models were proposed to better understand the relationships between these variables for each sex. The results show that the fit of the model that includes the variable Self-reliance is better for boys than for girls (chi-square contributions of 8.175 for girls and 1.978 for boys) unlike the other model (chi-square contributions of 0.288 for girls and 1.650 for boys). These results suggest that the psychological maturity subscale Self-reliance play a role in suicidal ideation in males but not in females. Although there have been no previous studies on the role of psychological maturity as a predictor of suicidal phenomena, the current study suggests that it is a feature to be considered in the prediction of adolescent suicidal ideation.

Combustion Dynamics and Stability Modeling of a Liquid Oxygen/RP-2 Oxygen-Rich Staged Combustion Preburner and Thrust Chamber Assembly with Gas-Centered Swirl Coaxial Injector Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casiano, M. J.; Kenny, R. J.; Protz, C. S.; Garcia, C. P.; Simpson, S. P.; Elmore, J. L.; Fischbach, S. R.; Giacomoni, C. B.; Hulka, J. R.

2016-01-01

The Combustion Stability Tool Development (CSTD) project, funded by the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, began in March 2015 supporting a renewed interest in the development of a liquid oxygen/hydrocarbon, oxygen-rich combustion engine. The project encompasses the design, assembly, and hot-fire testing of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center 40-klbf Integrated Test Rig (MITR). The test rig models a staged-combustion configuration by combining an oxygen-rich preburner (ORPB), to generate hot gas, with a thrust chamber assembly (TCA) using gas-centered swirl coaxial injector elements. There are five separately designed interchangeable injectors in the TCA that each contain 19- or 27- injector elements. A companion paper in this JANNAF conference describes the design characteristics, rationale, and fabrication issues for all the injectors. The data acquired from a heavily instrumented rig encompasses several injectors, several operating points, and stability bomb tests. Another companion paper in this JANNAF conference describes this test program in detail. In this paper, dynamic data from the hot-fire testing is characterized and used to identify the responses in the ORPB and TCA. A brief review of damping metrics are discussed and applied as a measure of stability margin for damped acoustic modes. Chug and longitudinal combustion stability models and predictions are described which includes new dynamic models for compressible flow through an orifice and a modification to incorporate a third feed line for inclusion of the fuel-film coolant. Flow-acoustics finite element modeling is used to investigate the anticipated TCA acoustics, the effects of injector element length on stability margin, and the potential use of an ORPB orifice trip ring for improving longitudinal stability margin.

Intuitive, but not simple: including explicit water molecules in protein-protein docking simulations improves model quality.

PubMed

Parikh, Hardik I; Kellogg, Glen E

2014-06-01

Characterizing the nature of interaction between proteins that have not been experimentally cocrystallized requires a computational docking approach that can successfully predict the spatial conformation adopted in the complex. In this work, the Hydropathic INTeractions (HINT) force field model was used for scoring docked models in a data set of 30 high-resolution crystallographically characterized "dry" protein-protein complexes and was shown to reliably identify native-like models. However, most current protein-protein docking algorithms fail to explicitly account for water molecules involved in bridging interactions that mediate and stabilize the association of the protein partners, so we used HINT to illuminate the physical and chemical properties of bridging waters and account for their energetic stabilizing contributions. The HINT water Relevance metric identified the "truly" bridging waters at the 30 protein-protein interfaces and we utilized them in "solvated" docking by manually inserting them into the input files for the rigid body ZDOCK program. By accounting for these interfacial waters, a statistically significant improvement of ∼24% in the average hit-count within the top-10 predictions the protein-protein dataset was seen, compared to standard "dry" docking. The results also show scoring improvement, with medium and high accuracy models ranking much better than incorrect ones. These improvements can be attributed to the physical presence of water molecules that alter surface properties and better represent native shape and hydropathic complementarity between interacting partners, with concomitantly more accurate native-like structure predictions. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

Our empirical results show that we can predict GDP growth rate more accurately in continent with fewer large economies, compared to smaller economies like Malaysia. This difficulty is very likely positively correlated with subsidy or social security policies. The stage of economic development and level of competiveness also appears to have interactive effects on this forecast stability. These results are generally independent of the forecasting procedures. Countries with high stability in their economic growth, forecasting by model selection is better than model averaging. Overall forecast weight averaging (FWA) is a better forecasting procedure in most countries. FWA also outperforms simple model averaging (SMA) and has the same forecasting ability as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in almost all countries.

Fundamental Movement Skills Are More than Run, Throw and Catch: The Role of Stability Skills

PubMed Central

Rudd, James R.; Barnett, Lisa M.; Butson, Michael L.; Farrow, Damian; Berry, Jason; Polman, Remco C. J.

2015-01-01

Introduction In motor development literature fundamental movement skills are divided into three constructs: locomotive, object control and stability skills. Most fundamental movement skills research has focused on children’s competency in locomotor and object control skills. The first aim of this study was to validate a test battery to assess the construct of stability skills, in children aged 6 to 10 (M age = 8.2, SD = 1.2). Secondly we assessed how the stability skills construct fitted into a model of fundamental movement skill. Method The Delphi method was used to select the stability skill battery. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to assess if the skills loaded onto the same construct and a new model of FMS was developed using structural equation modelling. Results Three postural control tasks were selected (the log roll, rock and back support) because they had good face and content validity. These skills also demonstrated good predictive validity with gymnasts scoring significantly better than children without gymnastic training and children from a high SES school performing better than those from a mid and low SES schools and the mid SES children scored better than the low SES children (all p < .05). Inter rater reliability tests were excellent for all three skills (ICC = 0.81, 0.87, 0.87) as was test re-test reliability (ICC 0.87–0.95). CFA provided good construct validity, and structural equation modelling revealed stability skills to be an independent factor in an overall FMS model which included locomotor (r = .88), object control (r = .76) and stability skills (r = .81). Discussion This study provides a rationale for the inclusion of stability skills in FMS assessment. The stability skills could be used alongside other FMS assessment tools to provide a holistic assessment of children’s fundamental movement skills. PMID:26468644

Impact of excipient interactions on solid dosage form stability.

PubMed

Narang, Ajit S; Desai, Divyakant; Badawy, Sherif

2012-10-01

Drug-excipient interactions in solid dosage forms can affect drug product stability in physical aspects such as organoleptic changes and dissolution slowdown, or chemically by causing drug degradation. Recent research has allowed the distinction in chemical instability resulting from direct drug-excipient interactions and from drug interactions with excipient impurities. A review of chemical instability in solid dosage forms highlights common mechanistic themes applicable to multiple degradation pathways. These common themes include the role of water and microenvironmental pH. In addition, special aspects of solid-state reactions with excipients and/or excipient impurities add to the complexity in understanding and modeling reaction pathways. This paper discusses mechanistic basis of known drug-excipient interactions with case studies and provides an overview of common underlying themes. Recent developments in the understanding of degradation pathways further impact methodologies used in the pharmaceutical industry for prospective stability assessment. This paper discusses these emerging aspects in terms of limitations of drug-excipient compatibility studies, emerging paradigms in accelerated stability testing, and application of mathematical modeling for prediction of drug product stability.

Toward a comprehensive model of antisocial development: a dynamic systems approach.

PubMed

Granic, Isabela; Patterson, Gerald R

2006-01-01

The purpose of this article is to develop a preliminary comprehensive model of antisocial development based on dynamic systems principles. The model is built on the foundations of behavioral research on coercion theory. First, the authors focus on the principles of multistability, feedback, and nonlinear causality to reconceptualize real-time parent-child and peer processes. Second, they model the mechanisms by which these real-time processes give rise to negative developmental outcomes, which in turn feed back to determine real-time interactions. Third, they examine mechanisms of change and stability in early- and late-onset antisocial trajectories. Finally, novel clinical designs and predictions are introduced. The authors highlight new predictions and present studies that have tested aspects of the model

Scaling and Predicting the Geotechnical Resistance Provided by Alfalfa in Experimental Studies of Alluvial-Channel Morphology and Planform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bankhead, N.; Simon, A.

2008-12-01

Several complex interactions occur between riparian vegetation and bank stability processes. Although there are both positive and negative effects of riparian vegetation on streambank stability, a link between increased vegetation density and decreased bank erosion and lateral migration rates of channels has generally been recorded. The ability of vegetation to promote increased bank stability leads to a positive feedback, in which bank stability then allows the growth and establishment of more vegetation. To study interactions between vegetation density and channel planform, past flume studies have used alfalfa sprouts (Medicago sativa), seeded over the entire floodplain in varying densities. Such studies have observed reductions in braiding intensity with increased alfalfa density. It has been assumed in these studies that the alfalfa sprouts increase the resistance of the bank material to lateral erosion. When alfalfa sprouts are scaled up they simulate mature riparian trees well. However, the geotechnical properties of alfalfa roots, and quantification of the increase in resistance provided to the banks under different densities of alfalfa have thus far been ignored. It is therefore unknown if the resistance provided by the alfalfa roots also scales well to real-world root-reinforcement values. To quantify additional bank strength, alfalfa sprouts were grown in sand and the roots tested at regular intervals to measure tensile strength. Results of tensile-strength measurements for alfalfa sprouts displayed the typical non-linear decrease of tensile strength (in MPa) with increasing root diameter. Values for the additional cohesion provided by alfalfa roots were calculated by inputting alfalfa tensile-strength and root density data to the root-reinforcement model, RipRoot, resulting in root-reinforcement values of 0 to 11.8 kPa. These values are similar to those that would be expected under field conditions. The root-cohesion values calculated for alfalfa sprouts were then used in conjunction with the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), and a series of laboratory experiments, to evaluate if the factor of safety (FS) of experimental channels lined with different densities of alfalfa could be predicted. Sand banks ranging in height from 1.25 to 3.75 cm were modeled and tested experimentally for cases with different groundwater heights and flow depths in the channel, and with cohesion due to roots being scaled appropriately using a length reduction factor. Model results showed that for alfalfa stem densities ranging from 0 to 10 stems/cm2, bank FS ranged from 0.60 to 1.87 and from 0.60 to 1.12 for 1.25 cm and 3.75 cm-high banks respectively. Preliminary results of the laboratory experiments have successfully shown that if cohesion due to roots calculated from the RipRoot model is scaled appropriately, the stability of experimental channels lined with alfalfa of different densities can be predicted. By quantifying the geotechnical resistance of banks during such studies, more accurate predictions of the conditions necessary to create meandering versus braided channel planforms, and the feedback between channel planform and vegetation density in both experimental and real-world scenarios may now be possible.

The Stability of Social Desirability: A Latent Change Analysis.

PubMed

Haberecht, Katja; Schnuerer, Inga; Gaertner, Beate; John, Ulrich; Freyer-Adam, Jennis

2015-08-01

Social desirability has been shown to be stable in samples with higher school education. However, little is known about the stability of social desirability in more heterogeneous samples differing in school education. This study aimed to investigate the stability of social desirability and which factors predict interindividual differences in intraindividual change. As part of a randomized controlled trial, 1,243 job seekers with unhealthy alcohol use were systematically recruited at three job agencies. A total of 1,094 individuals (87.8%) participated in at least one of two follow-ups (6 and 15 months after baseline) and constitute this study's sample. The Social Desirability Scale-17 was applied. Two latent change models were conducted: Model 1 tested for interindividual differences in intraindividual change of social desirability between both follow-ups; Model 2 included possible predictors (age, sex, education, current employment status) of interindividual differences in intraindividual change. Model 1 revealed a significant decrease of social desirability over time. Model 2 revealed school education to be the only significant predictor of change. These findings indicate that stability of social desirability may depend on school education. It may not be as stable in individuals with higher school education as in individuals with lower education. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

EPA Science Inventory

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological da...

Predictive modeling of pedestal structure in KSTAR using EPED model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Hyunsun; Kim, J. Y.; Kwon, Ohjin

2013-10-15

A predictive calculation is given for the structure of edge pedestal in the H-mode plasma of the KSTAR (Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research) device using the EPED model. Particularly, the dependence of pedestal width and height on various plasma parameters is studied in detail. The two codes, ELITE and HELENA, are utilized for the stability analysis of the peeling-ballooning and kinetic ballooning modes, respectively. Summarizing the main results, the pedestal slope and height have a strong dependence on plasma current, rapidly increasing with it, while the pedestal width is almost independent of it. The plasma density or collisionality gives initiallymore » a mild stabilization, increasing the pedestal slope and height, but above some threshold value its effect turns to a destabilization, reducing the pedestal width and height. Among several plasma shape parameters, the triangularity gives the most dominant effect, rapidly increasing the pedestal width and height, while the effect of elongation and squareness appears to be relatively weak. Implication of these edge results, particularly in relation to the global plasma performance, is discussed.« less

Status of Technology Development to enable Large Stable UVOIR Space Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, H. Philip; MSFC AMTD Team

2017-01-01

NASA MSFC has two funded Strategic Astrophysics Technology projects to develop technology for potential future large missions: AMTD and PTC. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is developing technology to make mechanically stable mirrors for a 4-meter or larger UVOIR space telescope. AMTD is demonstrating this technology by making a 1.5 meter diameter x 200 mm thick ULE(C) mirror that is 1/3rd scale of a full size 4-m mirror. AMTD is characterizing the mechanical and thermal performance of this mirror and of a 1.2-meter Zerodur(R) mirror to validate integrate modeling tools. Additionally, AMTD has developed integrated modeling tools which are being used to evaluate primary mirror systems for a potential Habitable Exoplanet Mission and analyzed the interaction between optical telescope wavefront stability and coronagraph contrast leakage. Predictive Thermal Control (PTC) project is developing technology to enable high stability thermal wavefront performance by using integrated modeling tools to predict and actively control the thermal environment of a 4-m or larger UVOIR space telescope.

Heat of mixing and morphological stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nandapurkar, P.; Poirier, D. R.

1988-01-01

A mathematical model, which incorporates heat of mixing in the energy balance, has been developed to analyze the morphological stability of a planar solid-liquid interface during the directional solidification of a binary alloy. It is observed that the stability behavior is almost that predicted by the analysis of Mullins and Sekerka (1963) at low growth velocities, while deviations in the critical concentration of about 20-25 percent are observed under rapid solidification conditions for certain systems. The calculations indicate that a positive heat of mixing makes the planar interface more unstable, whereas a negative heat of mixing makes it more stable, in terms of the critical concentration.

Flexible system model reduction and control system design based upon actuator and sensor influence functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yam, Yeung; Johnson, Timothy L.; Lang, Jeffrey H.

1987-01-01

A model reduction technique based on aggregation with respect to sensor and actuator influence functions rather than modes is presented for large systems of coupled second-order differential equations. Perturbation expressions which can predict the effects of spillover on both the reduced-order plant model and the neglected plant model are derived. For the special case of collocated actuators and sensors, these expressions lead to the derivation of constraints on the controller gains that are, given the validity of the perturbation technique, sufficient to guarantee the stability of the closed-loop system. A case study demonstrates the derivation of stabilizing controllers based on the present technique. The use of control and observation synthesis in modifying the dimension of the reduced-order plant model is also discussed. A numerical example is provided for illustration.

Orbital Maneuvering Engine Feed System Coupled Stability Investigation, Computer User's Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuman, M. D.; Fertig, K. W.; Hunting, J. K.; Kahn, D. R.

1975-01-01

An operating manual for the feed system coupled stability model was given, in partial fulfillment of a program designed to develop, verify, and document a digital computer model that can be used to analyze and predict engine/feed system coupled instabilities in pressure-fed storable propellant propulsion systems over a frequency range of 10 to 1,000 Hz. The first section describes the analytical approach to modelling the feed system hydrodynamics, combustion dynamics, chamber dynamics, and overall engineering model structure, and presents the governing equations in each of the technical areas. This is followed by the program user's guide, which is a complete description of the structure and operation of the computerized model. Last, appendices provide an alphabetized FORTRAN symbol table, detailed program logic diagrams, computer code listings, and sample case input and output data listings.

Spatial working memory capacity predicts bias in estimates of location.

PubMed

Crawford, L Elizabeth; Landy, David; Salthouse, Timothy A

2016-09-01

Spatial memory research has attributed systematic bias in location estimates to a combination of a noisy memory trace with a prior structure that people impose on the space. Little is known about intraindividual stability and interindividual variation in these patterns of bias. In the current work, we align recent empirical and theoretical work on working memory capacity limits and spatial memory bias to generate the prediction that those with lower working memory capacity will show greater bias in memory of the location of a single item. Reanalyzing data from a large study of cognitive aging, we find support for this prediction. Fitting separate models to individuals' data revealed a surprising variety of strategies. Some were consistent with Bayesian models of spatial category use, however roughly half of participants biased estimates outward in a way not predicted by current models and others seemed to combine these strategies. These analyses highlight the importance of studying individuals when developing general models of cognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Spatial Working Memory Capacity Predicts Bias in Estimates of Location

PubMed Central

Crawford, L. Elizabeth; Landy, David H.; Salthouse, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Spatial memory research has attributed systematic bias in location estimates to a combination of a noisy memory trace with a prior structure that people impose on the space. Little is known about intra-individual stability and inter-individual variation in these patterns of bias. In the current work we align recent empirical and theoretical work on working memory capacity limits and spatial memory bias to generate the prediction that those with lower working memory capacity will show greater bias in memory of the location of a single item. Reanalyzing data from a large study of cognitive aging, we find support for this prediction. Fitting separate models to individuals’ data revealed a surprising variety of strategies. Some were consistent with Bayesian models of spatial category use, however roughly half of participants biased estimates outward in a way not predicted by current models and others seemed to combine these strategies. These analyses highlight the importance of studying individuals when developing general models of cognition. PMID:26900708

Prediction of active control of subsonic centrifugal compressor rotating stall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawless, Patrick B.; Fleeter, Sanford

1993-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to predict the suppression of rotating stall in a centrifugal compressor with a vaned diffuser. This model is based on the employment of a control vortical waveform generated upstream of the impeller inlet to damp weak potential disturbances that are the early stages of rotating stall. The control system is analyzed by matching the perturbation pressure in the compressor inlet and exit flow fields with a model for the unsteady behavior of the compressor. The model was effective at predicting the stalling behavior of the Purdue Low Speed Centrifugal Compressor for two distinctly different stall patterns. Predictions made for the effect of a controlled inlet vorticity wave on the stability of the compressor show that for minimum control wave magnitudes, on the order of the total inlet disturbance magnitude, significant damping of the instability can be achieved. For control waves of sufficient amplitude, the control phase angle appears to be the most important factor in maintaining a stable condition in the compressor.

Self-organizing map analysis using multivariate data from theophylline tablets predicted by a thin-plate spline interpolation.

PubMed

Yasuda, Akihito; Onuki, Yoshinori; Obata, Yasuko; Yamamoto, Rie; Takayama, Kozo

2013-01-01

The "quality by design" concept in pharmaceutical formulation development requires the establishment of a science-based rationale and a design space. We integrated thin-plate spline (TPS) interpolation and Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) to visualize the latent structure underlying causal factors and pharmaceutical responses. As a model pharmaceutical product, theophylline tablets were prepared based on a standard formulation. The tensile strength, disintegration time, and stability of these variables were measured as response variables. These responses were predicted quantitatively based on nonlinear TPS. A large amount of data on these tablets was generated and classified into several clusters using an SOM. The experimental values of the responses were predicted with high accuracy, and the data generated for the tablets were classified into several distinct clusters. The SOM feature map allowed us to analyze the global and local correlations between causal factors and tablet characteristics. The results of this study suggest that increasing the proportion of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) improved the tensile strength and the stability of tensile strength of these theophylline tablets. In addition, the proportion of MCC has an optimum value for disintegration time and stability of disintegration. Increasing the proportion of magnesium stearate extended disintegration time. Increasing the compression force improved tensile strength, but degraded the stability of disintegration. This technique provides a better understanding of the relationships between causal factors and pharmaceutical responses in theophylline tablet formulations.

Potential of pressure solution for strain localization in the Baccu Locci Shear Zone (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casini, Leonardo; Funedda, Antonio

2014-09-01

The mylonites of the Baccu Locci Shear Zone (BLSZ), Sardinia (Italy), were deformed during thrusting along a bottom-to-top strain gradient in lower greenschist facies. The microstructure of metavolcanic protoliths shows evidence for composite deformation accommodated by dislocation creep within strong quartz porphyroclasts, and pressure solution in the finer grained matrix. The evolution of mylonite is simulated in two sets of numerical experiments, assuming either a constant width of the deforming zone (model 1) or a narrowing shear zone (model 2). A 2-5 mm y-1 constant-external-velocity boundary condition is applied on the basis of geologic constraints. Inputs to the models are provided by inverting paleostress values obtained from quartz recrystallized grain-size paleopiezometry. Both models predict a significant stress drop across the shear zone. However, model 1 involves a dramatic decrease in strain rate towards the zone of apparent strain localization. In contrast, model 2 predicts an increase in strain rate with time (from 10-14 to 10-12 s-1), which is consistent with stabilization of the shear zone profile and localization of deformation near the hanging wall. Extrapolating these results to the general context of crust strength suggests that pressure-solution creep may be a critical process for strain softening and for the stabilization of deformation within shear zones.

Subsonic Wing Optimization for Handling Qualities Using ACSYNT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soban, Danielle Suzanne

1996-01-01

The capability to accurately and rapidly predict aircraft stability derivatives using one comprehensive analysis tool has been created. The PREDAVOR tool has the following capabilities: rapid estimation of stability derivatives using a vortex lattice method, calculation of a longitudinal handling qualities metric, and inherent methodology to optimize a given aircraft configuration for longitudinal handling qualities, including an intuitive graphical interface. The PREDAVOR tool may be applied to both subsonic and supersonic designs, as well as conventional and unconventional, symmetric and asymmetric configurations. The workstation-based tool uses as its model a three-dimensional model of the configuration generated using a computer aided design (CAD) package. The PREDAVOR tool was applied to a Lear Jet Model 23 and the North American XB-70 Valkyrie.

Edge fires drive the shape and stability of tropical forests.

PubMed

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Pellegrini, Adam F A; Bhat, Uttam; Redner, Sidney; Pacala, Stephen W; Berdahl, Andrew M

2018-06-01

In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus, forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these competing edge effects is unknown, but critical in determining the shape and stability of individual forest patches, as well the landscape-level spatial distribution and stability of forests. We analyze high-resolution remote-sensing data from protected Brazilian Cerrado areas and find that forest shapes obey a robust perimeter-area scaling relation across climatic zones. We explain this scaling by introducing a heterogeneous fire propagation model of tropical forest-grassland ecotones. Deviations from this perimeter-area relation determine the stability of individual forest patches. At a larger scale, our model predicts that the relative rates of tree growth due to propagative expansion and long-distance seed dispersal determine whether collapse of regional-scale tree cover is continuous or discontinuous as fire frequency changes. © 2018 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Role of Tectonic Stress in Triggering Large Silicic Caldera Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabaniss, Haley E.; Gregg, Patricia M.; Grosfils, Eric B.

2018-05-01

We utilize 3-D temperature-dependent viscoelastic finite element models to investigate the mechanical response of the host rock supporting large caldera-size magma reservoirs (volumes >102 km3) to local tectonic stresses. The mechanical stability of the host rock is used to determine the maximum predicted repose intervals and magma flux rates that systems may experience before successive eruption is triggered. Numerical results indicate that regional extension decreases the stability of the roof rock overlying a magma reservoir, thereby promoting early-onset caldera collapse. Alternatively, moderate amounts of compression (≤10 mm/year) on relatively short timescales (<104 years) increases roof rock stability. In addition to quantifying the affect of tectonic stresses on reservoir stability, our models indicate that the process of rejuvenation and mechanical failure is likely to take place over short time periods of hundreds to thousands of years. These findings support the short preeruption melt accumulation timescales indicated by U series disequilibrium studies.

Simulating bank erosion over an extended natural sinuous river reach using a universal slope stability algorithm coupled with a morphodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, Yannick Y.; Van de Wiel, Marco J.; Biron, Pascale M.

2017-10-01

Meandering river channels are often associated with cohesive banks. Yet only a few river modelling packages include geotechnical and plant effects. Existing packages are solely compatible with single-threaded channels, require a specific mesh structure, derive lateral migration rates from hydraulic properties, determine stability based on friction angle, rely on nonphysical assumptions to describe cutoffs, or exclude floodplain processes and vegetation. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of a new geotechnical module that was developed and coupled with Telemac-Mascaret to address these limitations. Innovatively, the newly developed module relies on a fully configurable, universal genetic algorithm with tournament selection that permits it (1) to assess geotechnical stability along potentially unstable slope profiles intersecting liquid-solid boundaries, and (2) to predict the shape and extent of slump blocks while considering mechanical plant effects, bank hydrology, and the hydrostatic pressure caused by flow. The profiles of unstable banks are altered while ensuring mass conservation. Importantly, the new stability module is independent of mesh structure and can operate efficiently along multithreaded channels, cutoffs, and islands. Data collected along a 1.5-km-long reach of the semialluvial Medway Creek, Canada, over a period of 3.5 years are used to evaluate the capacity of the coupled model to accurately predict bank retreat in meandering river channels and to evaluate the extent to which the new model can be applied to a natural river reach located in a complex environment. Our results indicate that key geotechnical parameters can indeed be adjusted to fit observations, even with a minimal calibration effort, and that the model correctly identifies the location of the most severely eroded bank regions. The combined use of genetic and spatial analysis algorithms, in particular for the evaluation of geotechnical stability independently of the hydrodynamic mesh, permits the consideration of biophysical conditions for an extended river reach with complex bank geometries, with only a minor increase in run time. Further improvements with respect to plant representation could assist scientists in better understanding channel-floodplain interactions and in evaluating channel designs in river management projects.

Stability of the DSM-5 Section III pathological personality traits and their longitudinal associations with psychosocial functioning in personality disordered individuals.

PubMed

Wright, Aidan G C; Calabrese, William R; Rudick, Monica M; Yam, Wern How; Zelazny, Kerry; Williams, Trevor F; Rotterman, Jane H; Simms, Leonard J

2015-02-01

This study was conducted to establish (a) the stability of the DSM-5 Section III personality disorder (PD) traits, (b) whether these traits predict future psychosocial functioning, and (c) whether changes in traits track with changes in psychosocial functioning across time. Ninety-three outpatients (61% female) diagnosed with at least 1 PD completed patient-report measures at 2 time-points (M time between assessments = 1.44 years), including the Personality Inventory for the DSM-5 and several measures of psychosocial functioning. Effect sizes of rank-order and mean-level change were calculated. In addition, Time 1 traits were used to predict functioning measures at Time 2. Finally, latent change score models were estimated for DSM-5 Section III traits and functioning measures, and correlations among latent change scores were calculated to establish the relationship between change in traits and functional outcomes. Findings demonstrated that the DSM-5 Section III traits were highly stable in terms of normative (i.e., mean-level) change and rank-order stability over the course of the study. Furthermore, traits prospectively predicted psychosocial functioning. However, at the individual level traits and functioning were not entirely static over the study, and change in individuals' functioning tracked with changes in trait levels. These findings demonstrate that the DSM-5 Section III traits are highly stable consistent with the definition of PD, prospectively predictive of psychosocial functioning, and are dynamically associated with functioning over time. This study provides important evidence in support of the DSM-5 Section III PD model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Influence of neuromuscular noise and walking speed on fall risk and dynamic stability in a 3D dynamic walking model.

PubMed

Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

2013-06-21

Older adults and those with increased fall risk tend to walk slower. They may do this voluntarily to reduce their fall risk. However, both slower and faster walking speeds can predict increased risk of different types of falls. The mechanisms that contribute to fall risk across speeds are not well known. Faster walking requires greater forward propulsion, generated by larger muscle forces. However, greater muscle activation induces increased signal-dependent neuromuscular noise. These speed-related increases in neuromuscular noise may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. Using a 3D dynamic walking model, we systematically varied walking speed without and with physiologically-appropriate neuromuscular noise. We quantified how actual fall risk changed with gait speed, how neuromuscular noise affected speed-related changes in fall risk, and how well orbital and local dynamic stability measures predicted changes in fall risk across speeds. When we included physiologically-appropriate noise to the 'push-off' force in our model, fall risk increased with increasing walking speed. Changes in kinematic variability, orbital, and local dynamic stability did not predict these speed-related changes in fall risk. Thus, the increased neuromuscular variability that results from increased signal-dependent noise that is necessitated by the greater muscular force requirements of faster walking may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. The lower fall risk observed at slower speeds supports experimental evidence that slowing down can be an effective strategy to reduce fall risk. This may help explain the slower walking speeds observed in older adults and others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of Neuromuscular Noise and Walking Speed on Fall Risk and Dynamic Stability in a 3D Dynamic Walking Model

PubMed Central

Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.

2013-01-01

Older adults and those with increased fall risk tend to walk slower. They may do this voluntarily to reduce their fall risk. However, both slower and faster walking speeds can predict increased risk of different types of falls. The mechanisms that contribute to fall risk across speeds are not well known. Faster walking requires greater forward propulsion, generated by larger muscle forces. However, greater muscle activation induces increased signal-dependent neuromuscular noise. These speed-related increases in neuromuscular noise may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. Using a 3D dynamic walking model, we systematically varied walking speed without and with physiologically-appropriate neuromuscular noise. We quantified how actual fall risk changed with gait speed, how neuromuscular noise affected speed-related changes in fall risk, and how well orbital and local dynamic stability measures predicted changes in fall risk across speeds. When we included physiologically-appropriate noise to the ‘push-off’ force in our model, fall risk increased with increasing walking speed. Changes in kinematic variability, orbital, and local dynamic stability did not predict these speed-related changes in fall risk. Thus, the increased neuromuscular variability that results from increased signal-dependent noise that is necessitated by the greater muscular force requirements of faster walking may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. The lower fall risk observed at slower speeds supports experimental evidence that slowing down can be an effective strategy to reduce fall risk. This may help explain the slower walking speeds observed in older adults and others. PMID:23659911

Mutation Bias Favors Protein Folding Stability in the Evolution of Small Populations

PubMed Central

Porto, Markus; Bastolla, Ugo

2010-01-01

Mutation bias in prokaryotes varies from extreme adenine and thymine (AT) in obligatory endosymbiotic or parasitic bacteria to extreme guanine and cytosine (GC), for instance in actinobacteria. GC mutation bias deeply influences the folding stability of proteins, making proteins on the average less hydrophobic and therefore less stable with respect to unfolding but also less susceptible to misfolding and aggregation. We study a model where proteins evolve subject to selection for folding stability under given mutation bias, population size, and neutrality. We find a non-neutral regime where, for any given population size, there is an optimal mutation bias that maximizes fitness. Interestingly, this optimal GC usage is small for small populations, large for intermediate populations and around 50% for large populations. This result is robust with respect to the definition of the fitness function and to the protein structures studied. Our model suggests that small populations evolving with small GC usage eventually accumulate a significant selective advantage over populations evolving without this bias. This provides a possible explanation to the observation that most species adopting obligatory intracellular lifestyles with a consequent reduction of effective population size shifted their mutation spectrum towards AT. The model also predicts that large GC usage is optimal for intermediate population size. To test these predictions we estimated the effective population sizes of bacterial species using the optimal codon usage coefficients computed by dos Reis et al. and the synonymous to non-synonymous substitution ratio computed by Daubin and Moran. We found that the population sizes estimated in these ways are significantly smaller for species with small and large GC usage compared to species with no bias, which supports our prediction. PMID:20463869

Mechanisms of Exhaust Pollutants and Plume Formation in Continuous Combustion.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

device. 4.1.3 Dilute Swirl Combustor (DSC) A swirl-stabilized geometry was developed to address the deficiencies observed with the swirl CBC geometry and...certain deficiencies were apparent in the ability of the model to predict experimental trends. For example: (1) The velocity profiles (Figure lOa) show that...25,000 Re - 50,000 HDF LA 1.1 0.55 Prediction 1.2 0.71 Flow Visualization 0.92 0.66 0 LCF LA 1.2 0.60 Prediction 1.3 0.70 5 J~55 -* - *7 2-- tK2

Press-fit acetabular cup fixation: principles and testing.

PubMed

Macdonald, W; Carlsson, L V; Charnley, G J; Jacobsson, C M

1999-01-01

Pre-clinical testing of the fixation of press-fit acetabular components of total hip prostheses relies on cadaver or synthetic bone, but the properties and geometry of bone models differ from those of physiological bone. Cup designs use varied mechanisms for initial stability in bone; therefore, using different analogues and tests is appropriate. Press-fit cup stability was tested in the following: firstly, polyurethane (PU) foam modelling cancellous support; secondly, glass-fibre reinforced epoxide (GFRE) tubes modelling acetabular cortical support; thirdly, cadaveric acetabula. Three commercial cups [Harris-Galante II (H-G-II), Zimmer; Optifix, Smith & Nephew, Richards; porous coated anatomic (PCA), Howmedica] and an experimental cup with enhanced rim fixation were tested in three modes: direct pull-out, lever-out and axial torque. The fixation stabilities measured in the PU and the GFRE models showed trends consistent with those in cadaver bone, differing in the oversizing and cup geometry. The experimental cup was significantly more secure in most modes than other cups; the H-G II and Optifix cups showed similar stabilities, lower than that of the experimental cup but greater than that of the PCA cup (analysis of variance and Tukey's highly significant test; p < 0.001). The stabilities measured in cadaver bone more closely approximated those in GFRE. The use of several bone analogues enables separation of fixation mechanisms, allowing more accurate prediction of in vivo performance.

Homology modeling reveals the structural background of the striking difference in thermal stability between two related [NiFe]hydrogenases.

PubMed

Szilágyi, András; Kovács, Kornél L; Rákhely, Gábor; Závodszky, Péter

2002-02-01

Hydrogenases are redox metalloenzymes in bacteria that catalyze the uptake or production of molecular hydrogen. Two homologous nickel-iron hydrogenases, HupSL and HydSL from the photosynthetic purple sulfur bacterium Thiocapsa roseopersicina, differ substantially in their thermal stabilities despite the high sequence similarity between them. The optimum temperature of HydSL activity is estimated to be at least 50 degrees C higher than that of HupSL. In this work, homology models of both proteins were constructed and analyzed for a number of structural properties. The comparison of the models reveals that the higher stability of HydSL can be attributed to increased inter-subunit electrostatic interactions: the homology models reliably predict that HydSL contains at least five more inter-subunit ion pairs than HupSL. The subunit interface of HydSL is more polar than that of HupSL, and it contains a few extra inter-subunit hydrogen bonds. A more optimized cavity system and amino acid replacements resulting in increased conformational rigidity may also contribute to the higher stability of HydSL. The results are in accord with the general observation that with increasing temperature, the role of electrostatic interactions in protein stability increases. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer Link server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00894-001-0071-8.

An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

PubMed

De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

2016-08-01

Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Multi-Dimensional Shallow Landslide Stability Analysis Suitable for Application at the Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milledge, D.; Bellugi, D.; McKean, J. A.; Dietrich, W.

2012-12-01

The infinite slope model is the basis for almost all watershed scale slope stability models. However, it assumes that a potential landslide is infinitely long and wide. As a result, it cannot represent resistance at the margins of a potential landslide (e.g. from lateral roots), and is unable to predict the size of a potential landslide. Existing three-dimensional models generally require computationally expensive numerical solutions and have previously been applied only at the hillslope scale. Here we derive an alternative analytical treatment that accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of an unstable block. We apply 'at rest' earth pressure on the lateral sides, and 'active' and 'passive' pressure using a log-spiral method on the upslope and downslope margins. We represent root reinforcement on each margin assuming that root cohesion is an exponential function of soil depth. We benchmark this treatment against other more complete approaches (Finite Element (FE) and closed form solutions) and find that our model: 1) converges on the infinite slope predictions as length / depth and width / depth ratios become large; 2) agrees with the predictions from state-of-the-art FE models to within +/- 30% error, for the specific cases in which these can be applied. We then test our model's ability to predict failure of an actual (mapped) landslide where the relevant parameters are relatively well constrained. We find that our model predicts failure at the observed location with a nearly identical shape and predicts that larger or smaller shapes conformal to the observed shape are indeed more stable. Finally, we perform a sensitivity analysis using our model to show that lateral reinforcement sets a minimum landslide size, while the additional strength at the downslope boundary means that the optimum shape for a given size is longer in a downslope direction. However, reinforcement effects cannot fully explain the size or shape distributions of observed landslides, highlighting the importance of spatial patterns of key parameters (e.g. pore water pressure) and motivating the model's watershed scale application. This watershed scale application requires an efficient method to find the least stable shapes among an almost infinite set. However, when applied in this context, it allows a more complete examination of the controls on landslide size, shape and location.

Influence of the stretch wrapping process on the mechanical behavior of a stretch film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Daniel; Stommel, Markus; Zimmer, Johannes

2018-05-01

Lightweight construction is an ongoing task in packaging development. Consequently, the stability of packages during transport is gaining importance. This study contributes to the optimization of lightweight packaging concepts regarding their stability. A very widespread packaging concept is the distribution of goods on a pallet whereas a Polyethylene (PE) stretch film stabilizes the lightweight structure during the shipment. Usually, a stretch wrapping machine applies this stretch film to the pallet. The objective of this study is to support packaging development with a method that predicts the result of the wrapping process, based on the mechanical characterization of the stretch film. This result is not only defined by the amount of stretch film, its spatial distribution on the pallet and its internal stresses that result in a containment force. More accurate, this contribution also considers the influence of the deformation history of the stretch film during the wrapping process. By focusing on similarities of stretch wrappers rather than on differences, the influence of generalized process parameters on stretch film mechanics and thereby on pallet stability can be determined experimentally. For a practical use, the predictive method is accumulated in an analytic model of the wrapping process that can be verified experimentally. This paves the way for experimental and numerical approaches regarding the optimization of pallet stability.

Thermal Microstructural Stability of AZ31 Magnesium after Severe Plastic Deformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Young, John P.; Askari, Hesam A.; Hovanski, Yuri

2015-03-01

Both equal channel angular pressing and friction stir processing have the ability to refine the grain size of twin roll cast AZ31 magnesium and potentially improve its superplastic properties. This work used isochronal and isothermal heat treatments to investigate the microstructural stability of twin roll cast, equal channel angular pressed and friction stir processed AZ31 magnesium. For both heat treatment conditions, it was found that the twin roll casted and equal channel angular pressed materials were more stable than the friction stir processed material. Calculations of the grain growth kinetics showed that severe plastic deformation processing decreased the activation energymore » for grain boundary motion with the equal channel angular pressed material having the greatest Q value of the severely plastically deformed materials and that increasing the tool travel speed of the friction stir processed material improved microstructural stability. The Hollomon-Jaffe parameter was found to be an accurate means of identifying the annealing conditions that will result in substantial grain growth and loss of potential superplastic properties in the severely plastically deformed materials. In addition, Humphreys’s model of cellular microstructural stability accurately predicted the relative microstructural stability of the severely plastically deformed materials and with some modification, closely predicted the maximum grain size ratio achieved by the severely plastically deformed materials.« less

Application of an asymmetric finite element model of the C2-T1 cervical spine for evaluating the role of soft tissues in stability.

PubMed

Erbulut, D U; Zafarparandeh, I; Lazoglu, I; Ozer, A F

2014-07-01

Different finite element models of the cervical spine have been suggested for evaluating the roles of ligaments, facet joints, and disks in the stability of cervical spine under sagittal moments. However, no comprehensive study on the response of the full cervical spine that has used a detailed finite element (FE) model (C2-T1) that considers the asymmetry about the mid-sagittal plane has been reported. The aims of this study were to consider asymmetry in a FE model of the full cervical spine and to investigate the influences of ligaments, facet joints, and disk nucleus on the stability of the asymmetric model during flexion and extension. The model was validated against various published in vitro studies and FE studies for the three main loading planes. Next, the C4-C5 level was modified to simulate different cases to investigate the role of the soft tissues in segmental stability. The FE model predicted that excluding the interspinous ligament (ISL) from the index level would cause excessive instability during flexion and that excluding the posterior longitudinal ligament (PLL) or the ligamentum flavum (LF) would not affect segmental rotation. During extension, motion increased when the facet joints were excluded. The model without disk nucleus was unstable compared to the intact model at lower loads and exhibited a similar rotation response at higher loads. Copyright © 2014 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Whole-brain grey matter density predicts balance stability irrespective of age and protects older adults from falling.

PubMed

Boisgontier, Matthieu P; Cheval, Boris; van Ruitenbeek, Peter; Levin, Oron; Renaud, Olivier; Chanal, Julien; Swinnen, Stephan P

2016-03-01

Functional and structural imaging studies have demonstrated the involvement of the brain in balance control. Nevertheless, how decisive grey matter density and white matter microstructural organisation are in predicting balance stability, and especially when linked to the effects of ageing, remains unclear. Standing balance was tested on a platform moving at different frequencies and amplitudes in 30 young and 30 older adults, with eyes open and with eyes closed. Centre of pressure variance was used as an indicator of balance instability. The mean density of grey matter and mean white matter microstructural organisation were measured using voxel-based morphometry and diffusion tensor imaging, respectively. Mixed-effects models were built to analyse the extent to which age, grey matter density, and white matter microstructural organisation predicted balance instability. Results showed that both grey matter density and age independently predicted balance instability. These predictions were reinforced when the level of difficulty of the conditions increased. Furthermore, grey matter predicted balance instability beyond age and at least as consistently as age across conditions. In other words, for balance stability, the level of whole-brain grey matter density is at least as decisive as being young or old. Finally, brain grey matter appeared to be protective against falls in older adults as age increased the probability of losing balance in older adults with low, but not moderate or high grey matter density. No such results were observed for white matter microstructural organisation, thereby reinforcing the specificity of our grey matter findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model predictive control of non-linear systems over networks with data quantization and packet loss.

PubMed

Yu, Jimin; Nan, Liangsheng; Tang, Xiaoming; Wang, Ping

2015-11-01

This paper studies the approach of model predictive control (MPC) for the non-linear systems under networked environment where both data quantization and packet loss may occur. The non-linear controlled plant in the networked control system (NCS) is represented by a Tagaki-Sugeno (T-S) model. The sensed data and control signal are quantized in both links and described as sector bound uncertainties by applying sector bound approach. Then, the quantized data are transmitted in the communication networks and may suffer from the effect of packet losses, which are modeled as Bernoulli process. A fuzzy predictive controller which guarantees the stability of the closed-loop system is obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emerald ash borer and the urban forest: Changes in landslide potential due to canopy loss scenarios in the City of Pittsburgh, PA.

PubMed

Pfeil-McCullough, Erin; Bain, Daniel J; Bergman, Jeffery; Crumrine, Danielle

2015-12-01

Emerald ash borer is expected to kill thousands of ash trees in the eastern U.S. This research develops tools to predict the effect of ash tree loss from the urban canopy on landslide susceptibility in Pittsburgh, PA. A spatial model was built using the SINMAP (Stability INdex MAPping) model coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of tree loss (0%, 25%, 50%, and 75% loss of ash trees from the canopy). Ash spatial distributions were estimated via Monte Carlo methods and available vegetation plot data. Ash trees are most prevalent on steeper slopes, likely due to urban development patterns. Therefore, ash loss disproportionately increases hillslope instability. A 75% loss of ash resulted in roughly 800 new potential landslide initiation locations. Sensitivity testing reveals that variations in rainfall rates, and friction angles produce minor changes to model results relative to the magnitude of parameter variation, but reveal high model sensitivity to soil density and root cohesion values. The model predictions demonstrate the importance of large canopy species to urban hillslope stability, particularly on steep slopes and in areas where soils tend to retain water. To improve instability predictions, better characterization of urban soils, particularly spatial patterns of compaction and species specific root cohesion is necessary. The modeling framework developed in this research will enhance assessment of changes in landslide risk due to tree mortality, improving our ability to design economically and ecologically sustainable urban systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Imaging carbon nanotube interactions, diffusion, and stability in nanopores.

PubMed

Eichmann, Shannon L; Smith, Billy; Meric, Gulsum; Fairbrother, D Howard; Bevan, Michael A

2011-07-26

We report optical microscopy measurements of three-dimensional trajectories of individual multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) in nanoscale silica slit pores. Trajectories are analyzed to nonintrusively measure MWCNT interactions, diffusion, and stability as a function of pH and ionic strength. Evanescent wave scattering is used to track MWCNT positions normal to pore walls with nanometer-scale resolution, and video microscopy is used to track lateral positions with spatial resolution comparable to the diffraction limit. Analysis of MWCNT excursions normal to pore walls yields particle-wall potentials that agree with theoretical electrostatic and van der Waals potentials assuming a rotationally averaged potential of mean force. MWCNT lateral mean square displacements are used to quantify translational diffusivities, which are comparable to predictions based on the best available theories. Finally, measured MWCNT pH and ionic strength dependent stabilities are in excellent agreement with predictions. Our findings demonstrate novel measurement and modeling tools to understand the behavior of confined MWCNTs relevant to a broad range of applications.

Breaking of axial symmetry in excited heavy nuclei as identified in giant dipole resonance data

DOE PAGES

Grosse, E.; Junghans, A. R.; Massarczyk, R.

2017-11-28

Here, a recent theoretical prediction of a breaking of axial symmetry in quasi all heavy nuclei is confronted to a new critical analysis of photon strength functions of nuclei in the valley of stability. For the photon strength in the isovector giant dipole resonance (IVGDR) regime a parameterization of GDR shapes by the sum of three Lorentzians (TLO) is extrapolated to energies below and above the IVGDR. The impact of non-GDR modes adding to the low energy slope of photon strength is discussed including recent data on photon scattering and other radiative processes. These are shown to be concentrated inmore » energy regions where various model calculations predict intermediate collective strength; thus they are obviously separate from the IVGDR tail. The triple Lorentzian (TLO) ansatz for giant dipole resonances is normalized in accordance to the dipole sum rule. The nuclear droplet model with surface dissipation accounts well for positions and widths without local, nuclide specific, parameters. Very few and only global parameters are needed when a breaking of axial symmetry already in the valley of stability is admitted and hence a reliable prediction for electric dipole strength functions also outside of it is expected.« less

Breaking of axial symmetry in excited heavy nuclei as identified in giant dipole resonance data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grosse, E.; Junghans, A. R.; Massarczyk, R.

Here, a recent theoretical prediction of a breaking of axial symmetry in quasi all heavy nuclei is confronted to a new critical analysis of photon strength functions of nuclei in the valley of stability. For the photon strength in the isovector giant dipole resonance (IVGDR) regime a parameterization of GDR shapes by the sum of three Lorentzians (TLO) is extrapolated to energies below and above the IVGDR. The impact of non-GDR modes adding to the low energy slope of photon strength is discussed including recent data on photon scattering and other radiative processes. These are shown to be concentrated inmore » energy regions where various model calculations predict intermediate collective strength; thus they are obviously separate from the IVGDR tail. The triple Lorentzian (TLO) ansatz for giant dipole resonances is normalized in accordance to the dipole sum rule. The nuclear droplet model with surface dissipation accounts well for positions and widths without local, nuclide specific, parameters. Very few and only global parameters are needed when a breaking of axial symmetry already in the valley of stability is admitted and hence a reliable prediction for electric dipole strength functions also outside of it is expected.« less

[Study on the experimental application of floating-reference method to noninvasive blood glucose sensing].

PubMed

Yu, Hui; Qi, Dan; Li, Heng-da; Xu, Ke-xin; Yuan, Wei-jie

2012-03-01

Weak signal, low instrument signal-to-noise ratio, continuous variation of human physiological environment and the interferences from other components in blood make it difficult to extract the blood glucose information from near infrared spectrum in noninvasive blood glucose measurement. The floating-reference method, which analyses the effect of glucose concentration variation on absorption coefficient and scattering coefficient, gets spectrum at the reference point and the measurement point where the light intensity variations from absorption and scattering are counteractive and biggest respectively. By using the spectrum from reference point as reference, floating-reference method can reduce the interferences from variation of physiological environment and experiment circumstance. In the present paper, the effectiveness of floating-reference method working on improving prediction precision and stability was assessed through application experiments. The comparison was made between models whose data were processed with and without floating-reference method. The results showed that the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) decreased by 34.7% maximally. The floating-reference method could reduce the influences of changes of samples' state, instrument noises and drift, and improve the models' prediction precision and stability effectively.

The temporal stability and predictive validity of pupils' causal attributions for difficult classroom behaviour.

PubMed

Lambert, Nathan; Miller, Andy

2010-12-01

Recent studies have investigated the causal attributions for difficult pupil behaviour made by teachers, pupils, and parents but none have investigated the temporal stability or predictive validity of these attributions. This study examines the causal attributions made for difficult classroom behaviour by students on two occasions 30 months apart. The longitudinal stability of these attributions is considered as is the predictive validity of the first set of attributions in relation to teachers' later judgments about individual students' behaviour. Two hundred and seventeen secondary school age pupils (114 males, 103 females) provided data on the two occasions. Teachers also rated each student's behaviour at the two times. A questionnaire listing 63 possible causes of classroom misbehaviour was delivered to pupils firstly when they were in Year 7 (aged 11-12) and then again, 30 months later. Responses were analysed through exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Additionally, teachers were asked to rate the standard of behaviour of each of the students on the two occasions. EFA of the Years 7 and 10 data indicated that pupils' attributions yielded broadly similar five-factor models with the perceived relative importance of these factors remaining the same. Analysis also revealed a predictive relationship between pupils' attributions regarding the factor named culture of misbehaviour in Year 7, and teachers' judgments of their standard of behaviour in Year 10. The present study suggests that young adolescents' causal attributions for difficult classroom behaviour remain stable over time and are predictive of teachers' later judgments about their behaviour.

Linear stability analysis of the three-dimensional thermally-driven ocean circulation: application to interdecadal oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huck, Thierry; Vallis, Geoffrey K.

2001-08-01

What can we learn from performing a linear stability analysis of the large-scale ocean circulation? Can we predict from the basic state the occurrence of interdecadal oscillations, such as might be found in a forward integration of the full equations of motion? If so, do the structure and period of the linearly unstable modes resemble those found in a forward integration? We pursue here a preliminary study of these questions for a case in idealized geometry, in which the full nonlinear behavior can also be explored through forward integrations. Specifically, we perform a three-dimensional linear stability analysis of the thermally-driven circulation of the planetary geostrophic equations. We examine the resulting eigenvalues and eigenfunctions, comparing them with the structure of the interdecadal oscillations found in the fully nonlinear model in various parameter regimes. We obtain a steady state by running the time-dependent, nonlinear model to equilibrium using restoring boundary conditions on surface temperature. If the surface heat fluxes are then diagnosed, and these values applied as constant flux boundary conditions, the nonlinear model switches into a state of perpetual, finite amplitude, interdecadal oscillations. We construct a linearized version of the model by empirically evaluating the tangent linear matrix at the steady state, under both restoring and constant-flux boundary conditions. An eigen-analysis shows there are no unstable eigenmodes of the linearized model with restoring conditions. In contrast, under constant flux conditions, we find a single unstable eigenmode that shows a striking resemblance to the fully-developed oscillations in terms of three-dimensional structure, period and growth rate. The mode may be damped through either surface restoring boundary conditions or sufficiently large horizontal tracer diffusion. The success of this simple numerical method in idealized geometry suggests applications in the study of the stability of the ocean circulation in more realistic configurations, and the possibility of predicting potential oceanic modes, even weakly damped, that might be excited by stochastic atmospheric forcing or mesoscale ocean eddies.

Robust shrinking ellipsoid model predictive control for linear parameter varying system

PubMed Central

Yan, Yan

2017-01-01

In this paper, a new off-line model predictive control strategy is presented for a kind of linear parameter varying system with polytopic uncertainty. A nest of shrinking ellipsoids is constructed by solving linear matrix inequality. By splitting the objective function into two parts, the proposed strategy moves most computations off-line. The on-line computation is only calculating the current control to assure the system shrinking into the smaller ellipsoid. With the proposed formulation, the stability of the closed system is proved, followed with two numerical examples to demonstrate the proposed method’s effectiveness in the end. PMID:28575028

Ground cloud effluent measurements during the May 30, 1974, Titan 3 launch at the Air Force eastern test range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bendura, R. J.; Crumbly, K. H.

1977-01-01

Surface-level exhaust effluent measurements of HCl, CO, and particulates, ground-cloud behavior, and some comparisons with model predictions for the launch of a Titan 3 rocket are presented along with a limited amount of airborne sampling measurements of other cloud species (O3, NO, NOX). Values above background levels for these effluents were obtained at 20 of the 30 instrument sites; these values were lower than model predictions and did not exceed public health standards. Cloud rise rate, stabilization altitude, and volume are compared with results from previous launches.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, J. T.; Sheffler, K. D.

1986-01-01

The objective of this program is to establish a methodology to predict Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involves experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. The coating being studied is a flight qualified two layer system, designated PWA 264, consisting of a nominal ten mil layer of seven percent yttria partially stabilized zirconia plasma deposited over a nominal five mil layer of low pressure plasma deposited NiCoCrAlY. Thermal barrier coating degradation modes being investigated include: thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, erosion, hot corrosion, and foreign object damage.

Physical stability and recrystallization kinetics of amorphous ibipinabant drug product by fourier transform raman spectroscopy.

PubMed

Sinclair, Wayne; Leane, Michael; Clarke, Graham; Dennis, Andrew; Tobyn, Mike; Timmins, Peter

2011-11-01

The solid-state physical stability and recrystallization kinetics during storage stability are described for an amorphous solid dispersed drug substance, ibipinabant, at a low concentration (1.0%, w/w) in a solid oral dosage form (tablet). The recrystallization behavior of the amorphous ibipinabant-polyvinylpyrrolidone solid dispersion in the tablet product was characterized by Fourier transform (FT) Raman spectroscopy. A partial least-square analysis used for multivariate calibration based on Raman spectra was developed and validated to detect less than 5% (w/w) of the crystalline form (equivalent to less than 0.05% of the total mass of the tablet). The method provided reliable and highly accurate predictive crystallinity assessments after exposure to a variety of stability storage conditions. It was determined that exposure to moisture had a significant impact on the crystallinity of amorphous ibipinabant. The information provided by the method has potential utility for predictive physical stability assessments. Dissolution testing demonstrated that the predicted crystallinity had a direct correlation with this physical property of the drug product. Recrystallization kinetics was measured using FT Raman spectroscopy for the solid dispersion from the tablet product stored at controlled temperature and relative humidity. The measurements were evaluated by application of the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (JMA) kinetic model to determine recrystallization rate constants and Avrami exponent (n = 2). The analysis showed that the JMA equation could describe the process very well, and indicated that the recrystallization kinetics observed was a two-step process with an induction period (nucleation) followed by rod-like crystal growth. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A data base approach for prediction of deforestation-induced mass wasting events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logan, T. L.

1981-01-01

A major topic of concern in timber management is determining the impact of clear-cutting on slope stability. Deforestation treatments on steep mountain slopes have often resulted in a high frequency of major mass wasting events. The Geographic Information System (GIS) is a potentially useful tool for predicting the location of mass wasting sites. With a raster-based GIS, digitally encoded maps of slide hazard parameters can be overlayed and modeled to produce new maps depicting high probability slide areas. The present investigation has the objective to examine the raster-based information system as a tool for predicting the location of the clear-cut mountain slopes which are most likely to experience shallow soil debris avalanches. A literature overview is conducted, taking into account vegetation, roads, precipitation, soil type, slope-angle and aspect, and models predicting mass soil movements. Attention is given to a data base approach and aspects of slide prediction.

Results From F-18B Stability and Control Parameter Estimation Flight Tests at High Dynamic Pressures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moes, Timothy R.; Noffz, Gregory K.; Iliff, Kenneth W.

2000-01-01

A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique has been used to obtain stability and control derivatives for the NASA F-18B Systems Research Aircraft. This work has been performed to support flight testing of the active aeroelastic wing (AAW) F-18A project. The goal of this research is to obtain baseline F-18 stability and control derivatives that will form the foundation of the aerodynamic model for the AAW aircraft configuration. Flight data have been obtained at Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and at dynamic pressures ranging between 600 and 1500 lbf/sq ft. At each test condition, longitudinal and lateral-directional doublets have been performed using an automated onboard excitation system. The doublet maneuver consists of a series of single-surface inputs so that individual control-surface motions cannot be correlated with other control-surface motions. Flight test results have shown that several stability and control derivatives are significantly different than prescribed by the F-18B aerodynamic model. This report defines the parameter estimation technique used, presents stability and control derivative results, compares the results with predictions based on the current F-18B aerodynamic model, and shows improvements to the nonlinear simulation using updated derivatives from this research.

Perplexities and Provocations of Eating Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halmi, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Background: Etiological hypotheses of eating disorders, anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa have not produced informative research for predictably effective treatment. Methods: The rationale for applying a model of allostasis, a dysregulation of reward circuits with activation of brain and hormonal stress responses to maintain apparent stability,…

FORMAL UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR POLLUTION MODEL. (R824792)

EPA Science Inventory

This study applied Monte Carlo analysis with Latin
hypercube sampling to evaluate the effects of uncertainty
in air parcel trajectory paths, emissions, rate constants,
deposition affinities, mixing heights, and atmospheric stability
on predictions from a vertically...

Message survival and decision dynamics in a class of reactive complex systems subject to external fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Lucatero, C.; Schaum, A.; Alarcon Ramos, L.; Bernal-Jaquez, R.

2014-07-01

In this study, the dynamics of decisions in complex networks subject to external fields are studied within a Markov process framework using nonlinear dynamical systems theory. A mathematical discrete-time model is derived using a set of basic assumptions regarding the convincement mechanisms associated with two competing opinions. The model is analyzed with respect to the multiplicity of critical points and the stability of extinction states. Sufficient conditions for extinction are derived in terms of the convincement probabilities and the maximum eigenvalues of the associated connectivity matrices. The influences of exogenous (e.g., mass media-based) effects on decision behavior are analyzed qualitatively. The current analysis predicts: (i) the presence of fixed-point multiplicity (with a maximum number of four different fixed points), multi-stability, and sensitivity with respect to the process parameters; and (ii) the bounded but significant impact of exogenous perturbations on the decision behavior. These predictions were verified using a set of numerical simulations based on a scale-free network topology.

Micellar modification of drug stability: analysis of the effect of hexadecyltrimethylammonium halides on the rate of degradation of cephaclor.

PubMed

Oliveira, A G; Cuccovia, I M; Chaimovich, H

1990-01-01

The intra- and intermolecular rates of degradation of cephaclor were determined with and without hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTABr). Micellar-derived spectral shifts were used to measure the association of the ionic forms as well as to determine the effect of CTABr on the apparent acid dissociation constant of the antibiotic. The rate of degradation of cephaclor increased with detergent and was salt sensitive. Micellar effects were analyzed quantitatively within the framework of the pseudophase ion exchange model. All experimental data were fitted to this model which was used to predict the combined effects of pH and detergent concentration. Micelles increased the rate of OH- attack on cephaclor; most of the effect was due to the concentration of reagents in the micellar pseudophase. The intramolecular degradation was catalyzed 25-fold by micelles, and a working hypothesis to rationalize this effect is proposed. The results demonstrate that quantitative analysis can be utilized to assess and predict effects of detergents on drug stability.

Assessing the Role of Inhibition in Stabilizing Neocortical Networks Requires Large-Scale Perturbation of the Inhibitory Population

PubMed Central

Mrsic-Flogel, Thomas D.

2017-01-01

Neurons within cortical microcircuits are interconnected with recurrent excitatory synaptic connections that are thought to amplify signals (Douglas and Martin, 2007), form selective subnetworks (Ko et al., 2011), and aid feature discrimination. Strong inhibition (Haider et al., 2013) counterbalances excitation, enabling sensory features to be sharpened and represented by sparse codes (Willmore et al., 2011). This balance between excitation and inhibition makes it difficult to assess the strength, or gain, of recurrent excitatory connections within cortical networks, which is key to understanding their operational regime and the computations that they perform. Networks that combine an unstable high-gain excitatory population with stabilizing inhibitory feedback are known as inhibition-stabilized networks (ISNs) (Tsodyks et al., 1997). Theoretical studies using reduced network models predict that ISNs produce paradoxical responses to perturbation, but experimental perturbations failed to find evidence for ISNs in cortex (Atallah et al., 2012). Here, we reexamined this question by investigating how cortical network models consisting of many neurons behave after perturbations and found that results obtained from reduced network models fail to predict responses to perturbations in more realistic networks. Our models predict that a large proportion of the inhibitory network must be perturbed to reliably detect an ISN regime robustly in cortex. We propose that wide-field optogenetic suppression of inhibition under promoters targeting a large fraction of inhibitory neurons may provide a perturbation of sufficient strength to reveal the operating regime of cortex. Our results suggest that detailed computational models of optogenetic perturbations are necessary to interpret the results of experimental paradigms. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Many useful computational mechanisms proposed for cortex require local excitatory recurrence to be very strong, such that local inhibitory feedback is necessary to avoid epileptiform runaway activity (an “inhibition-stabilized network” or “ISN” regime). However, recent experimental results suggest that this regime may not exist in cortex. We simulated activity perturbations in cortical networks of increasing realism and found that, to detect ISN-like properties in cortex, large proportions of the inhibitory population must be perturbed. Current experimental methods for inhibitory perturbation are unlikely to satisfy this requirement, implying that existing experimental observations are inconclusive about the computational regime of cortex. Our results suggest that new experimental designs targeting a majority of inhibitory neurons may be able to resolve this question. PMID:29074575