Linkage of Biochemical Responses to Population-level Effects: A Case Study with Vitellogenin in the Fathead Minnow (Pimephales promelas).

EPA Science Inventory

We present a novel approach to quantifying estuarine habitat use by fish using stable isotopes. In brief, we further developed and evaluated an existing stable isotope turnover model to estimate the time American shad, an anadromous clupeid, spend in various river habitats durin...

Generating the Nighttime Light of the Human Settlements by Identifying Periodic Components from DMSP/OLS Satellite Imagery.

PubMed

Letu, Husi; Hara, Masanao; Tana, Gegen; Bao, Yuhai; Nishio, Fumihiko

2015-09-01

Nighttime lights of the human settlements (hereafter, "stable lights") are seen as a valuable proxy of social economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions at the subnational level. In this study, we propose an improved method to generate the stable lights from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) daily nighttime light data for 1999. The study area includes Japan, China, India, and other 10 countries in East Asia. A noise reduction filter (NRF) was employed to generate a stable light from DMSP/OLS time-series daily nighttime light data. It was found that noise from amplitude of the 1-year periodic component is included in the stable light. To remove the amplitude of the 1-year periodic component noise included in the stable light, the NRF method was improved to extract the periodic component. Then, new stable light was generated by removing the amplitude of the 1-year periodic component using the improved NRF method. The resulting stable light was evaluated by comparing it with the conventional nighttime stable light provided by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration/National Geophysical Data Center (NOAA/NGDC). It is indicated that DNs of the NOAA stable light image are lower than those of the new stable light image. This might be attributable to the influence of attenuation effects from thin warm water clouds. However, due to overglow effect of the thin cloud, light area in new stable light is larger than NOAA stable light. Furthermore, the cumulative digital numbers (CDNs) and number of light area pixels (NLAP) of the generated stable light and NOAA/NGDC stable light were applied to estimate socioeconomic variables of population, electric power consumption, gross domestic product, and CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption. It is shown that the correlations of the population and CO2FF with new stable light data are higher than those in NOAA stable light data; correlations of the EPC and GDP with NOAA stable light data are higher those in the new stable light data.

Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

2010-01-01

Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

Effect of Long-Term Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory on Kidney Damage in the Diabetic Population: A Prospective Study in a Community-Based Chinese Cohort.

PubMed

Li, Jian-Chao; Tian, Jun; Wu, Shou-Ling; Wang, Zhi-Jun; Zhang, Xiao-Fei; Jia, Dao; Ding, Rong-Jing; Xiao, Xiong-Fu; Fan, Yu-Bo; Hu, Da-Yi

2018-05-20

Previous studies have shown that hypertension is an important factor contributing to the occurrence and progression of diabetic kidney damage. However, the relationship between the patterns of blood pressure (BP) trajectory and kidney damage in the diabetic population remains unclear. This prospective study investigated the effect of long-term systolic BP (SBP) trajectory on kidney damage in the diabetic population based on an 8-year follow-up community-based cohort. This study included 4556 diabetic participants among 101,510 participants. BP, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and urinary protein were measured every 2 years from 2006 to 2014. SBP trajectory was identified by the censored normal modeling. Five discrete SBP trajectories were identified according to SBP range and the changing pattern over time. Kidney damage was evaluated through eGFR and urinary protein value. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the influence of different SBP trajectory groups on kidney damage. We identified five discrete SBP trajectories: low-stable group (n = 864), moderate-stable group (n = 1980), moderate increasing group (n = 609), elevated decreasing group, (n = 679), and elevated stable group (n = 424). The detection rate of kidney damage in the low-stable group (SBP: 118-124 mmHg) was the lowest among the five groups. The detection rate of each kidney damage index was higher in the elevated stable group (SBP: 159-172 mmHg) compared with the low-stable group. For details, the gap was 4.14 (11.6% vs. 2.8%) in eGFR <60 ml·min -1 ·1.73 m -2 and 3.66 (17.2% vs. 4.7%), 3.38 (25.0% vs. 7.4%), and 1.8 (10.6% vs. 5.9%) times in positive urinary protein, eGFR <60 ml·min -1 ·1.73 m -2 and/or positive urinary protein, and eGFR decline ≥30%, respectively (P < 0.01). An elevated stable SBP trajectory is an independent risk factor for kidney damage in the diabetic population.

CAPN1, CAST, and DGAT1 genetic effects on preweaning performance, carcass quality traits, and residual variance of tenderness in a beef cattle population selected for haplotype and allele equalization

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genetic marker effects and type of inheritance are estimated with poor precision when minor marker allele frequencies are low. A stable composite population (MARC III) was subjected to marker assisted selection for multiple years to equalize specific marker frequencies to 1) estimate effect size an...

How to control chaotic behaviour and population size with proportional feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liz, Eduardo

2010-01-01

We study the control of chaos in one-dimensional discrete maps as they often occur in modelling population dynamics. For managing the population, we seek to suppress any possible chaotic behavior, leading the system to a stable equilibrium. In this Letter, we make a rigorous analysis of the proportional feedback method under certain conditions fulfilled by a wide family of maps. We show that it is possible to stabilize the chaotic dynamics towards a globally stable positive equilibrium, that can be chosen among a broad range of possible values. In particular, the size of the population can be enhanced by control in form of population reduction. This paradoxical phenomenon is known as the hydra effect, and it has important implications in the design of strategies in such areas as fishing, pest management, and conservation biology.

Hindrances to bistable front propagation: application to Wolbachia invasion.

PubMed

Nadin, Grégoire; Strugarek, Martin; Vauchelet, Nicolas

2018-05-01

We study the biological situation when an invading population propagates and replaces an existing population with different characteristics. For instance, this may occur in the presence of a vertically transmitted infection causing a cytoplasmic effect similar to the Allee effect (e.g. Wolbachia in Aedes mosquitoes): the invading dynamics we model is bistable. We aim at quantifying the propagules (what does it take for an invasion to start?) and the invasive power (how far can an invading front go, and what can stop it?). We rigorously show that a heterogeneous environment inducing a strong enough population gradient can stop an invading front, which will converge in this case to a stable front. We characterize the critical population jump, and also prove the existence of unstable fronts above the stable (blocking) fronts. Being above the maximal unstable front enables an invading front to clear the obstacle and propagate further. We are particularly interested in the case of artificial Wolbachia infection, used as a tool to fight arboviruses.

Application Of Stable Isotope Analysis To Study Temporal Changes In Foraging Ecology In A Highly Endangered Amphibian

PubMed Central

Gillespie, J. Hayley

2013-01-01

Background Understanding dietary trends for endangered species may be essential to assessing the effects of ecological disturbances such as habitat modification, species introductions or global climate change. Documenting temporal variation in prey selection may also be crucial for understanding population dynamics. However, the rarity, secretive behaviours and obscure microhabitats of some endangered species can make direct foraging observations difficult or impossible. Furthermore, the lethality or invasiveness of some traditional methods of dietary analysis (e.g. gut contents analysis, gastric lavage) makes them inappropriate for such species. Stable isotope analysis facilitates non-lethal, indirect analysis of animal diet that has unrealized potential in the conservation of endangered organisms, particularly amphibians. Methodology/findings I determined proportional contributions of aquatic macroinvertebrate prey to the diet of an endangered aquatic salamander Eurycea sosorum over a two-year period using stable isotope analysis of 13/12C and 15/14N and the Bayesian stable isotope mixing model SIAR. I calculated Strauss’ dietary electivity indices by comparing these proportions with changing relative abundance of potential prey species through time. Stable isotope analyses revealed that a previously unknown prey item (soft-bodied planarian flatworms in the genus Dugesia) made up the majority of E. sosorum diet. Results also demonstrate that E. sosorum is an opportunistic forager capable of diet switching to include a greater proportion of alternative prey when Dugesia populations decline. There is also evidence of intra-population dietary variation. Conclusions/significance Effective application of stable isotope analysis can help circumvent two key limitations commonly experienced by researchers of endangered species: the inability to directly observe these species in nature and the invasiveness or lethality of traditional methods of dietary analysis. This study illustrates the feasibility of stable isotope analysis in identifying preferred prey species that can be used to guide conservation management of both wild and captive food sources for endangered species. PMID:23341920

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction.

PubMed

Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2012-01-01

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible-infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.

Effects of Land Use on Stable Carbon Isotopic Composition and Concentration of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) in Southeastern US Piedmont Headwater Streams

EPA Science Inventory

Stable carbon isotopic composition (delta 13C) and concentrations of DOC and DIC were measured in stream water samples collected monthly in 15 headwater streams from an area with extensive poultry and cattle production and a rapidly growing human population. Linear regression te...

The effect of sexual selection on adaptation and extinction under increasing temperatures.

PubMed

Parrett, Jonathan M; Knell, Robert J

2018-04-25

Strong sexual selection has been reported to both enhance and hinder the adaptive capacity and persistence of populations when exposed to novel environments. Consequently, how sexual selection influences population adaption and persistence under stress remains widely debated. Here, we present two empirical investigations of the fitness consequences of sexual selection on populations of the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella, exposed to stable or gradually increasing temperatures. When faced with increasing temperatures, strong sexual selection was associated with both increased fecundity and offspring survival compared with populations experiencing weak sexual selection, suggesting sexual selection acts to drive adaptive evolution by favouring beneficial alleles. Strong sexual selection did not, however, delay extinction when the temperature became excessively high. By manipulating individuals' mating opportunities during fitness assays, we were able to assess the effect of multiple mating independently from the effect of population-level sexual selection, and found that polyandry has a positive effect on both fecundity and offspring survival under increasing temperatures in those populations evolving with weak sexual selection. Within stable temperatures, there were some benefits from strong sexual selection but these were not consistent across the entire experiment, possibly reflecting changing costs and benefits of sexual selection under stabilizing and directional selection. These results indicate that sexual selection can provide a buffer against climate change and increase adaptation rates within a continuously changing environment. These positive effects of sexual selection may, however, be too small to protect populations and delay extinction when environmental changes are relatively rapid. © 2018 The Author(s).

Geographic origins and population genetics of bats killed at wind-energy facilities.

PubMed

Pylant, Cortney L; Nelson, David M; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Gates, J Edward; Keller, Stephen R

2016-07-01

An unanticipated impact of wind-energy development has been large-scale mortality of insectivorous bats. In eastern North America, where mortality rates are among the highest in the world, the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) and the eastern red bat (L. borealis) comprise the majority of turbine-associated bat mortality. Both species are migratory tree bats with widespread distributions; however, little is known regarding the geographic origins of bats killed at wind-energy facilities or the diversity and population structure of affected species. We addressed these unknowns by measuring stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δ 2 H) and conducting population genetic analyses of bats killed at wind-energy facilities in the central Appalachian Mountains (USA) to determine the summering origins, effective size, structure, and temporal stability of populations. Our results indicate that ~1% of hoary bat mortalities and ~57% of red bat mortalities derive from non-local sources, with no relationship between the proportion of non-local bats and sex, location of mortality, or month of mortality. Additionally, our data indicate that hoary bats in our sample consist of an unstructured population with a small effective size (N e ) and either a stable or declining history. Red bats also showed no evidence of population genetic structure, but in contrast to hoary bats, the diversity contained in our red bat samples is consistent with a much larger N e that reflects a demographic expansion after a bottleneck. These results suggest that the impacts of mortality associated with intensive wind-energy development may affect bat species dissimilarly, with red bats potentially better able to absorb sustained mortality than hoary bats because of their larger N e . Our results provide important baseline data and also illustrate the utility of stable isotopes and population genetics for monitoring bat populations affected by wind-energy development. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Population genetics and the evolution of geographic range limits in an annual plant.

PubMed

Moeller, David A; Geber, Monica A; Tiffin, Peter

2011-10-01

Abstract Theoretical models of species' geographic range limits have identified both demographic and evolutionary mechanisms that prevent range expansion. Stable range limits have been paradoxical for evolutionary biologists because they represent locations where populations chronically fail to respond to selection. Distinguishing among the proposed causes of species' range limits requires insight into both current and historical population dynamics. The tools of molecular population genetics provide a window into the stability of range limits, historical demography, and rates of gene flow. Here we evaluate alternative range limit models using a multilocus data set based on DNA sequences and microsatellites along with field demographic data from the annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Our data suggest that central and peripheral populations have very large historical and current effective population sizes and that there is little evidence for population size changes or bottlenecks associated with colonization in peripheral populations. Whereas range limit populations appear to have been stable, central populations exhibit a signature of population expansion and have contributed asymmetrically to the genetic diversity of peripheral populations via migration. Overall, our results discount strictly demographic models of range limits and more strongly support evolutionary genetic models of range limits, where adaptation is prevented by a lack of genetic variation or maladaptive gene flow.

Noise-induced extinction for a ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Partha Sarathi

2018-04-01

In this paper, we study a stochastically forced ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey population. In the deterministic case, we show that the model exhibits the stable interior equilibrium point or limit cycle corresponding to the co-existence of both species. We investigate a probabilistic mechanism of the noise-induced extinction in a zone of stable interior equilibrium point. Computational methods based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique are applied for the analysis of the dispersion of random states near stable interior equilibrium point. This method allows to construct a confidence domain and estimate the threshold value of the noise intensity for a transition from the coexistence to the extinction.

The genetic architecture of maize (Zea mays L.) kernel weight determination.

PubMed

Alvarez Prado, Santiago; López, César G; Senior, M Lynn; Borrás, Lucas

2014-09-18

Individual kernel weight is an important trait for maize yield determination. We have identified genomic regions controlling this trait by using the B73xMo17 population; however, the effect of genetic background on control of this complex trait and its physiological components is not yet known. The objective of this study was to understand how genetic background affected our previous results. Two nested stable recombinant inbred line populations (N209xMo17 and R18xMo17) were designed for this purpose. A total of 408 recombinant inbred lines were genotyped and phenotyped at two environments for kernel weight and five other traits related to kernel growth and development. All traits showed very high and significant (P < 0.001) phenotypic variability and medium-to-high heritability (0.60-0.90). When N209xMo17 and R18xMo17 were analyzed separately, a total of 23 environmentally stable quantitative trait loci (QTL) and five epistatic interactions were detected for N209xMo17. For R18xMo17, 59 environmentally stable QTL and 17 epistatic interactions were detected. A joint analysis detected 14 stable QTL regardless of the genetic background. Between 57 and 83% of detected QTL were population specific, denoting medium-to-high genetic background effects. This percentage was dependent on the trait. A meta-analysis including our previous B73xMo17 results identified five relevant genomic regions deserving further characterization. In summary, our grain filling traits were dominated by small additive QTL with several epistatic and few environmental interactions and medium-to-high genetic background effects. This study demonstrates that the number of detected QTL and additive effects for different physiologically related grain filling traits need to be understood relative to the specific germplasm. Copyright © 2014 Alvarez Prado et al.

Effect of (social) media on the political figure fever model: Jokowi-fever model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, Benny; Samat, Nor Azah

2016-02-01

In recent years, political figures begin to utilize social media as one of alternative to engage in communication with their supporters. Publics referred to Jokowi, one of the candidates in Indonesia presidential election in 2014, as the first politician in Indonesia to truly understand the power of social media. Social media is very important in shaping public opinion. In this paper, effect of social media on the Jokowi-fever model in a closed population will be discussed. Supporter population is divided into three class sub-population, i.e susceptible supporters, Jokowi infected supporters, and recovered supporters. For case no positive media, there are two equilibrium points; the Jokowi-fever free equilibrium point in which it locally stable if basic reproductive ratio less than one and the Jokowi-fever endemic equilibrium point in which it locally stable if basic reproductive ratio greater than one. For case no negative media, there is only the Jokowi-fever endemic equilibrium point in which it locally stable if the condition is satisfied. Generally, for case positive media proportion is positive, there is no Jokowi-fever free equilibrium point. The numerical result shows that social media gives significantly effect on Jokowi-fever model, a sharp increase or a sharp decrease in the number of Jokowi infected supporters. It is also shown that the boredom rate is one of the sensitive parameters in the Jokowi-fever model; it affects the number of Jokowi infected supporters.

Population pressures: threat to democracy.

PubMed

1992-06-01

The desire for political freedom and representative government is spreading throughout the world. The stability of democratic bodies is dependent on wise leaders, foreign aid, and slowing population growth. Rapid population growth strains political institutions and increases pressure on services. A Population Crisis Committee study found that only a few democratic countries with serious demographic pressures remained stable. The most stable countries were ones with lower levels of population pressure. Most of the 31 unstable countries were in Africa and in a band stretching from the Middle East to South Asia, and almost all had serious demographic pressures. Only 5 stable countries had high or very high demographic pressures. Since countries in the world are interdependent, population pressures have adverse consequences everywhere. Population pressures in the developing world are considered enhanced by the rapid growth of cities. Both the developed and the developing world face the problems of clogged highways, loss of wilderness, polluted lakes and streams, and stifling smog and acid rain conditions. The sociopolitical implications of demographic changes vary from country to country, but rapid growth and maldistribution of population strains existing political, social, and economic structures and relations between nations. Urban areas are the arena for clashes of cultures, competition for scarce housing and jobs, the breakdown of traditional family and social structures, and juxtapositions of extreme wealth next to extreme poverty. The growth of independent nation states since the 1940s has not allowed much time for development of effective political institutions. There are many obstacles to national unity and popular political participation. The potential for political instability is correlated with a number of factors: large youth populations in overcrowded cities with too high expectations and limited opportunities, diverse and intense ethnic and religious factors, and oppressive governments which violate human rights. Rapid growth has a harmful impact on the environment.

Chronic lung disease and multiple sclerosis: Incidence, prevalence, and temporal trends.

PubMed

Marrie, Ruth Ann; Patten, Scott; Tremlett, Helen; Svenson, Lawrence W; Wolfson, Christina; Yu, B Nancy; Elliott, Lawrence; Profetto-McGrath, Joanne; Warren, Sharon; Leung, Stella; Jette, Nathalie; Bhan, Virender; Fisk, John D

2016-07-01

We aimed to estimate the incidence and prevalence of chronic lung disease (CLD), including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, in the MS population versus a matched cohort from the general population. We used population-based administrative data from four Canadian provinces to identify 44,452 persons with MS and 220,849 age-, sex- and geographically-matched controls aged 20 years and older. We employed a validated case definition to estimate the incidence and prevalence of CLD over the period 1995-2005, and used Poisson regression to assess temporal trends. In 2005, the crude incidence of CLD per 100,000 persons was 806 (95%CI: 701-911) in the MS population, and 757 in the matched population (95%CI: 712-803). In 2005, the crude prevalence of CLD was 13.5% (95%CI: 13.1-14.0%) in the MS population, and 12.4% (95%CI: 12.3-12.6%) in the matched population. Among persons aged 20-44 years, the average annual incidence of CLD was higher in the MS population than in the matched population (RR 1.15; 95%CI: 1.02-1.30), but did not differ between populations for those aged ≥45 years. The incidence of CLD was stable, but the prevalence of CLD increased 60% over the study period. CLD is relatively common in the MS population. The incidence of CLD has been stable over time, but the prevalence of CLD has increased. Among persons aged 20-44 years, CLD is more common in the MS population than in a matched population. Given the prevalence of CLD in the MS population, further attention to the effects of CLD on outcomes in MS and approaches to mitigating those effects are warranted. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics in the presence of quasispecies effects and changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, Robert Burke

2006-12-01

This thesis explores how natural selection acts on organisms such as viruses that have either highly error-prone reproduction or face variable environmental conditions or both. By modeling population dynamics under these conditions, we gain a better understanding of the selective forces at work, both in our simulations and hopefully also in real organisms. With an understanding of the important factors in natural selection we can forecast not only the immediate fate of an existing population but also in what directions such a population might evolve in the future. We demonstrate that the concept of a quasispecies is relevant to evolution in a neutral fitness landscape. Motivated by RNA viruses such as HIV, we use RNA secondary structure as our model system and find that quasispecies effects arise both rapidly and in realistically small populations. We discover that the evolutionary effects of neutral drift, punctuated equilibrium and the selection for mutational robustness extend to the concept of a quasispecies. In our study of periodic environments, we consider the tradeoffs faced by quasispecies in adapting to environmental change. We develop an analytical model to predict whether evolution favors short-term or long-term adaptation and validate our model through simulation. Our results bear directly on the population dynamics of viruses such as West Nile that alternate between two host species. More generally, we discover that a selective pressure exists under these conditions to fuse or split genes with complementary environmental functions. Lastly, we study the general effects of frequency-dependent selection on two strains competing in a periodic environment. Under very general assumptions, we prove that stable coexistence rather than extinction is the likely outcome. The population dynamics of this system may be as simple as stable equilibrium or as complex as deterministic chaos.

The Change in Living Kidney Donation in Women and Men in the United States (2005-2015): A Population-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Gill, Jagbir; Joffres, Yayuk; Rose, Caren; Lesage, Julie; Landsberg, David; Kadatz, Matthew; Gill, John

2018-04-01

The factors underlying the decline in living kidney donation in the United States since 2005 must be understood to inform strategies to ensure access to this option for future patients. Population-based estimates provide a better assessment of donation activity than do trends in the number of living donor transplants. Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and the United States Census, we determined longitudinal changes in living kidney donation between 2005 and 2015, focusing on the effect of sex and income. We used multilevel Poisson models to adjust for differences in age, race, the incidence of ESRD, and geographic factors (including population density, urbanization, and daily commuting). During the study period, the unadjusted rate of donation was 30.1 and 19.3 per million population in women and men, respectively, and the adjusted incidence of donation was 44% higher in women (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.39 to 1.49). The incidence of donation was stable in women (IRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.07) but declined in men (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.83). Income was associated with longitudinal changes in donation in both sexes, yet donation was stable in the highest two population income quartiles in women but only in the highest income quartile in men. In both sexes, living related donations declined, irrespective of income. In conclusion, living donation declined in men but remained stable in women between 2005 and 2015, and income appeared to have a greater effect on living donation in men. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Effects of intraspecific phenotypic variation on species coexistence.

PubMed

Hausch, Stephen; Vamosi, Steven M; Fox, Jeremy W

2018-06-01

Intraspecific variation can promote or inhibit species coexistence, both by increasing species' competitive abilities, and by altering the relative strengths of intraspecific and interspecific competition. Effects of intraspecific variation on coexistence can occur via complementarity of different variants, and via a selection effect: initially-variable populations are more likely to contain highly competitive variants that might determine the ability of the population as a whole to both invade and resist invasion. We tested the effects of intraspecific variation and composition on coexistence by assaying the mutual invasibility of populations of two competing bean weevil species (Callosobruchus maculatus and C. chinensis) when each was initiated with one, three, or five genetically- and phenotypically-distinct lineages. Our results reveal that intraspecific variation is a double-edged sword for species coexistence. Increasing intraspecific variation increased species' abilities to invade, and to resist invasion, via selection effects and intraspecific niche complementarity among conspecific lineages, thereby creating the potential for exclusion among mismatched competitors. But intraspecific variation also increased the scope for resource partitioning, creating the potential for stable coexistence. Stable coexistence occurred only when intraspecific variation caused species to exhibit both relatively evenly-matched competitive abilities and sufficiently-strong resource partitioning. Our work explains the conflicting results of previous studies. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The use of resorbable hardware for fixation of pediatric mandible fracture. Case report.

PubMed

Poore, Matthew C; Penna, Kevin J

2008-01-01

The diagnosis and management of mandible fractures in the pediatric patient population can pose multiple challenges to the oral and maxillofacial surgeon. Resorbable plates and screws for fixation in this population are both well tolerated and effective. They enable realignment and stable positioning of rapidly healing fracture segments, while obviating any potential impediments to long-term metal retention.

Indicators of the Education Potential of the Population of Russia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tikhomirov, N. P.; Ushchev, V. I.

2007-01-01

The steady tendencies toward the decline in the size of Russia's population in the twenty-first century, owing to the effect of global political, social, and economic factors, are giving rise to a number of fundamental problems that have to do with the erosion of the conditions that are essential not only for the stable development of society, but…

The effect of travel loss on evolutionarily stable distributions of populations in space.

PubMed

Deangelis, Donald L; Wolkowicz, Gail S K; Lou, Yuan; Jiang, Yuexin; Novak, Mark; Svanbäck, Richard; Araújo, Márcio S; Jo, Youngseung; Cleary, Erin A

2011-07-01

A key assumption of the ideal free distribution (IFD) is that there are no costs in moving between habitat patches. However, because many populations exhibit more or less continuous population movement between patches and traveling cost is a frequent factor, it is important to determine the effects of costs on expected population movement patterns and spatial distributions. We consider a food chain (tritrophic or bitrophic) in which one species moves between patches, with energy cost or mortality risk in movement. In the two-patch case, assuming forced movement in one direction, an evolutionarily stable strategy requires bidirectional movement, even if costs during movement are high. In the N-patch case, assuming that at least one patch is linked bidirectionally to all other patches, optimal movement rates can lead to source-sink dynamics where patches with negative growth rates are maintained by other patches with positive growth rates. As well, dispersal between patches is not balanced (even in the two-patch case), leading to a deviation from the IFD. Our results indicate that cost-associated forced movement can have important consequences for spatial metapopulation dynamics. Relevance to marine reserve design and the study of stream communities subject to drift is discussed.

Stable Nighttime Light Decreased in Protected Area of California: Findings from DMSP-OLS Observations and the Importance for Protected Area Policy Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, S.; Gillespie, T. W.

2016-12-01

Stable nighttime light, an indicator of persisting human activity and light pollution is a well-recognized disturbance to the wilderness of protected areas (PAs). Mostly supported by in situ observations, very limited studies of light pollution for PAs focused at a regional level and on a continuous time span to support policy making effectively. DMSP-OLS stable nighttime series provide continuous observation of nightlight and have been widely applied in studies focusing on human activities. In this study, we employed inter-calibrated DMSP-OLS nightlight series from 1992 to 2012 to evaluate the change of intensity and extension of stable nighttime light inside California PAs. We observed a decrease of stable nighttime light and a shrinkage in spatial extent in PAs located in all ecoregions from 1992 to 2012, especially before 2004. Such decrease and shrinkage occurred mostly in southern California and the Bay Area where mega metropolitan clusters locate. The successful application of protecting strategies in PAs and the improved technologies of lighting may contribute to the relieving of light pollution in PAs. However, the stable nighttime light slightly increased since 2004, when there was limited room for stricter protective regulations and the pressure from population growth persisted. Population density explained most spatial distribution of nightlight in years with census tract level demographic data available, except PAs with the highest wilderness such as Sierra Nevada Mts. We anticipate to improve the models with the newest remote sensing nighttime product from NASA Suomi-NPP and annually updated demographic data from American Community Survey at census tract level in the future to provide a cost-effective evaluation on protecting strategies. Such evaluation will support land managers of PAs and local policy-makers for modification and proposal of policies.

A Stable Urban Ecosystem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meier, Richard L.

1976-01-01

Describes a model for the future evolution of a stable ecosystem in a densely-populated society. Discusses designs for limiting population growth, resource-conserving settlements, and ways to feed growing cities. (MLH)

Population differentiation in Pacific salmon: local adaptation, genetic drift, or the environment?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkison, Milo D.

1995-01-01

Morphological, behavioral, and life-history differences between Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations are commonly thought to reflect local adaptation, and it is likewise common to assume that salmon populations separated by small distances are locally adapted. Two alternatives to local adaptation exist: random genetic differentiation owing to genetic drift and founder events, and genetic homogeneity among populations, in which differences reflect differential trait expression in differing environments. Population genetics theory and simulations suggest that both alternatives are possible. With selectively neutral alleles, genetic drift can result in random differentiation despite many strays per generation. Even weak selection can prevent genetic drift in stable populations; however, founder effects can result in random differentiation despite selective pressures. Overlapping generations reduce the potential for random differentiation. Genetic homogeneity can occur despite differences in selective regimes when straying rates are high. In sum, localized differences in selection should not always result in local adaptation. Local adaptation is favored when population sizes are large and stable, selection is consistent over large areas, selective diffeentials are large, and straying rates are neither too high nor too low. Consideration of alternatives to local adaptation would improve both biological research and salmon conservation efforts.

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

PubMed Central

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-01-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities. PMID:25535553

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.

PubMed

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-09-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

Heat- and light-induced transformations of Yb trapping sites in an Ar matrix

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tao, L.-G.; Lambo, R., E-mail: lambo@mail.ustc.edu.cn; Zhou, X.-G.

2015-11-07

The low-lying electronic states of Yb isolated in a solid Ar matrix grown at 4.2 K are characterized through absorption and emission spectroscopy. Yb atoms are found to occupy three distinct thermally stable trapping sites labeled “red,” “blue,” and “violet” according to the relative positions of the absorption features they produce. Classical simulations of the site structure and relative stability broadly reproduced the experimentally observed matrix-induced frequency shifts and thus identified the red, blue, and violet sites as due to respective single substitutional (SS), tetravacancy (TV), and hexavacancy (HV) occupation. Prolonged excitation of the {sup 1}S → {sup 1}P transitionmore » was found to transfer the Yb population from HV sites into TV and SS sites. The process showed reversibility in that annealing to 24 K predominantly transferred the TV population back into HV sites. Population kinetics were used to deduce the effective rate parameters for the site transformation processes. Experimental observations indicate that the blue and violet sites lie close in energy, whereas the red one is much less stable. Classical simulations identify the blue site as the most stable one.« less

Learning-by-doing, population pressure, and the theory of demographic transition.

PubMed

Strulik, H

1997-01-01

The long-term effects of two interdependent relations between economic growth and population growth are discussed. The empirical work of Boserup (1981) was utilized, which focused on rural, sparsely populated economies with low income per capita. According to the formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance with the theory of demographic transition, the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. The approach originating from Cigno (1984) modified the economic model, which allowed the establishment of two different stable equilibria. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of low-income and high-income equilibrium was shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state took place. The instability of the Malthusian steady-state is also possible when a country develops along a path of economic growth which is compatible with the demographic transition. In this context, learning means the application of new techniques of agrarian production. In developed economies with a stable population the learning-or-doing decision lead to accumulation of human capital and the invention of new technologies and goods. The interdependence of income-determined population growth and learning-by-doing may serve as an explanation for the weak and partly controversial empirical support for an overall correlation between income and population growth. The result yielded a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth.

An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

2009-01-01

The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

Evolving effective behaviours to interact with tag-based populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yucel, Osman; Crawford, Chad; Sen, Sandip

2015-07-01

Tags and other characteristics, externally perceptible features that are consistent among groups of animals or humans, can be used by others to determine appropriate response strategies in societies. This usage of tags can be extended to artificial environments, where agents can significantly reduce cognitive effort spent on appropriate strategy choice and behaviour selection by reusing strategies for interacting with new partners based on their tags. Strategy selection mechanisms developed based on this idea have successfully evolved stable cooperation in games such as the Prisoner's Dilemma game but relies upon payoff sharing and matching methods that limit the applicability of the tag framework. Our goal is to develop a general classification and behaviour selection approach based on the tag framework. We propose and evaluate alternative tag matching and adaptation schemes for a new, incoming individual to select appropriate behaviour against any population member of an existing, stable society. Our proposed approach allows agents to evolve both the optimal tag for the environment as well as appropriate strategies for existing agent groups. We show that these mechanisms will allow for robust selection of optimal strategies by agents entering a stable society and analyse the various environments where this approach is effective.

Predator-prey models with component Allee effect for predator reproduction.

PubMed

Terry, Alan J

2015-12-01

We present four predator-prey models with component Allee effect for predator reproduction. Using numerical simulation results for our models, we describe how the customary definitions of component and demographic Allee effects, which work well for single species models, can be extended to predators in predator-prey models by assuming that the prey population is held fixed. We also find that when the prey population is not held fixed, then these customary definitions may lead to conceptual problems. After this discussion of definitions, we explore our four models, analytically and numerically. Each of our models has a fixed point that represents predator extinction, which is always locally stable. We prove that the predator will always die out either if the initial predator population is sufficiently small or if the initial prey population is sufficiently small. Through numerical simulations, we explore co-existence fixed points. In addition, we demonstrate, by simulation, the existence of a stable limit cycle in one of our models. Finally, we derive analytical conditions for a co-existence trapping region in three of our models, and show that the fourth model cannot possess a particular kind of co-existence trapping region. We punctuate our results with comments on their real-world implications; in particular, we mention the possibility of prey resurgence from mortality events, and the possibility of failure in a biological pest control program.

Disease management programs for patients with COPD in Germany: a longitudinal evaluation of routinely collected patient records.

PubMed

Mehring, Michael; Donnachie, Ewan; Fexer, Johannes; Hofmann, Frank; Schneider, Antonius

2014-07-01

The primary aim of the disease management program (DMP) for patients with COPD is to improve health outcomes and thereby to reduce overall costs. Six years after its introduction in Germany, no consensus has yet been reached as to whether the DMP has been effective in reaching these goals. The objective of the study was an evaluation of the DMP for COPD in Bavaria using routinely collected subject medical records. A longitudinal population-based study, comparing the total DMP population of up to 86,560 patients with a stable cohort of 17,549 subjects over a period of 5 years. The effect of subject dropout in the cohort is further estimated by means of inverse probability weighting. The proportion of subjects in the total population who were prescribed and received treatment with oral corticosteroids declined at a constant rate of 1.0% per year (P < .001). The proportion of subjects who were given a prescription for theophylline decreased at a constant rate of 2.0% per year (P < .001). By 2012, 15.6% of the total population and 26% of the cohort had undergone self-management education. While the proportion of smokers in the total population remained constant because of the effect of newly enrolled subjects, the proportion of smokers decreased significantly even after dropout adjustment, from 29% to 21%. The occurrence of exacerbations decreased steadily at a rate of 0.9% (total population) or 0.7% (cohort) per year. While the occurrence of emergency hospital admissions decreased in the total population, an increase was observed within the cohort. Summarizing all results leads to the suggestion that the German DMP for COPD has been effective in enhancing the quality of care in regard to an improved adherence to guidelines, pharmacotherapy, exacerbations, and self-management education. However, the DMP was not able to prevent an increase in emergency hospital admissions for the stable population in the cohort. Copyright © 2014 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Quantifying inter- and intra-population niche variability using hierarchical bayesian stable isotope mixing models.

PubMed

Semmens, Brice X; Ward, Eric J; Moore, Jonathan W; Darimont, Chris T

2009-07-09

Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population.

Dietary change and stable isotopes: a model of growth and dormancy in cave bears.

PubMed Central

Lidén, K; Angerbjörn, A

1999-01-01

In order to discuss dietary change over time by the use of stable isotopes, it is necessary to sort out the underlying processes in isotopic variation. Together with the dietary signal other processes have been investigated, namely metabolic processes, collagen turnover and physical growth. However, growth and collagen turnover time have so far been neglected in dietary reconstruction based on stable isotopes. An earlier study suggested that cave bears (Ursus spelaeus) probably gave birth to cubs during dormancy. We provide an estimate of the effect on stable isotopes of growth and metabolism and discuss collagen turnover in a population of cave bears. Based on a quantitative model, we hypothesized that bear cubs lactated their mothers during their first and second winters, but were fed solid food together with lactation during their first summer. This demonstrates the need to include physical growth, metabolism and collagen turnover in dietary reconstruction. Whereas the effects of diet and metabolism are due to fractionation, growth and collagen turnover are dilution processes. PMID:10518325

Factors affecting individual foraging specialization and temporal diet stability across the range of a large “generalist” apex predator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Nifong, James C.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Jeffery, Brian M.; Elsey, Ruth M.; Decker, Rachel A.; Silliman, Brian R.; Guillette, Louis J.; Lowers, Russell H.; Larson, Justin C.

2015-01-01

Individual niche specialization (INS) is increasingly recognized as an important component of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, most studies that have investigated INS have focused on the effects of niche width and inter- and intraspecific competition on INS in small-bodied species for short time periods, with less attention paid to INS in large-bodied reptilian predators and the effects of available prey types on INS. We investigated the prevalence, causes, and consequences of INS in foraging behaviors across different populations of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), the dominant aquatic apex predator across the southeast US, using stomach contents and stable isotopes. Gut contents revealed that, over the short term, although alligator populations occupied wide ranges of the INS spectrum, general patterns were apparent. Alligator populations inhabiting lakes exhibited lower INS than coastal populations, likely driven by variation in habitat type and available prey types. Stable isotopes revealed that over longer time spans alligators exhibited remarkably consistent use of variable mixtures of carbon pools (e.g., marine and freshwater food webs). We conclude that INS in large-bodied reptilian predator populations is likely affected by variation in available prey types and habitat heterogeneity, and that INS should be incorporated into management strategies to efficiently meet intended goals. Also, ecological models, which typically do not consider behavioral variability, should include INS to increase model realism and applicability.

Factors affecting individual foraging specialization and temporal diet stability across the range of a large "generalist" apex predator.

PubMed

Rosenblatt, Adam E; Nifong, James C; Heithaus, Michael R; Mazzotti, Frank J; Cherkiss, Michael S; Jeffery, Brian M; Elsey, Ruth M; Decker, Rachel A; Silliman, Brian R; Guillette, Louis J; Lowers, Russell H; Larson, Justin C

2015-05-01

Individual niche specialization (INS) is increasingly recognized as an important component of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, most studies that have investigated INS have focused on the effects of niche width and inter- and intraspecific competition on INS in small-bodied species for short time periods, with less attention paid to INS in large-bodied reptilian predators and the effects of available prey types on INS. We investigated the prevalence, causes, and consequences of INS in foraging behaviors across different populations of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), the dominant aquatic apex predator across the southeast US, using stomach contents and stable isotopes. Gut contents revealed that, over the short term, although alligator populations occupied wide ranges of the INS spectrum, general patterns were apparent. Alligator populations inhabiting lakes exhibited lower INS than coastal populations, likely driven by variation in habitat type and available prey types. Stable isotopes revealed that over longer time spans alligators exhibited remarkably consistent use of variable mixtures of carbon pools (e.g., marine and freshwater food webs). We conclude that INS in large-bodied reptilian predator populations is likely affected by variation in available prey types and habitat heterogeneity, and that INS should be incorporated into management strategies to efficiently meet intended goals. Also, ecological models, which typically do not consider behavioral variability, should include INS to increase model realism and applicability.

Genetic variation between populations of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.)(Diptera: Muscidae) from Nebraska, Denmark and Australia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans L., is a cosmopolitan, major pest of livestock. Previous studies on this insect, from samples within the United States, suggested a large amount of gene flow; more genetic variation was detected within populations than between populations. To compare the genetic v...

Hydra effects in discrete-time models of stable communities.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H

2016-12-21

A species exhibits a hydra effect when, counter-intuitively, increased mortality of the species causes an increase in its abundance. Hydra effects have been studied in many continuous time (differential equation) multispecies models, but only rarely have hydra effects been observed in or studied with discrete time (difference equation) multispecies models. In addition most discrete time theory focuses on single-species models. Thus, it is unclear what unifying characteristics determine when hydra effects arise in discrete time models. Here, using discrete time multispecies models (where total abundance is the single variable describing each population), I show that a species exhibits a hydra effect in a stable system only when fixing that species' density at its equilibrium density destabilizes the system. This general characteristic is referred to as subsystem instability. I apply this result to two-species models and identify specific mechanisms that cause hydra effects in stable communities, e.g., in host--parasitoid models, host Allee effects and saturating parasitoid functional responses can cause parasitoid hydra effects. I discuss how the general characteristic can be used to identify mechanisms causing hydra effects in communities with three or more species. I also show that the condition for hydra effects at stable equilibria implies the system is reactive (i.e., density perturbations can grow before ultimately declining). This study extends previous work on conditions for hydra effects in single-species models by identifying necessary conditions for stable systems and sufficient conditions for cyclic systems. In total, these results show that hydra effects can arise in many more communities than previously appreciated and that hydra effects were present, but unrecognized, in previously studied discrete time models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of travel loss on evolutionarily stable distributions of populations in space

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Wolkowicz, G.S.K.; Lou, Y.; Jiang, Y.; Novak, M.; Svanback, R.; Araujo, M.S.; Jo, Y.S.; Cleary, E.A.

2011-01-01

A key assumption of the ideal free distribution (IFD) is that there are no costs in moving between habitat patches. However, because many populations exhibit more or less continuous population movement between patches and traveling cost is a frequent factor, it is important to determine the effects of costs on expected population movement patterns and spatial distributions. We consider a food chain (tritrophic or bitrophic) in which one species moves between patches, with energy cost or mortality risk in movement. In the two-patch case, assuming forced movement in one direction, an evolutionarily stable strategy requires bidirectional movement, even if costs during movement are high. In the N-patch case, assuming that at least one patch is linked bidirectionally to all other patches, optimal movement rates can lead to source-sink dynamics where patches with negative growth rates are maintained by other patches with positive growth rates. As well, dispersal between patches is not balanced (even in the two-patch case), leading to a deviation from the IFD. Our results indicate that cost-associated forced movement can have important consequences for spatial metapopulation dynamics. Relevance to marine reserve design and the study of stream communities subject to drift is discussed. ?? 2011 by The University of Chicago.

High variance in reproductive success generates a false signature of a genetic bottleneck in populations of constant size: a simulation study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Demographic bottlenecks can severely reduce the genetic variation of a population or a species. Establishing whether low genetic variation is caused by a bottleneck or a constantly low effective number of individuals is important to understand a species’ ecology and evolution, and it has implications for conservation management. Recent studies have evaluated the power of several statistical methods developed to identify bottlenecks. However, the false positive rate, i.e. the rate with which a bottleneck signal is misidentified in demographically stable populations, has received little attention. We analyse this type of error (type I) in forward computer simulations of stable populations having greater than Poisson variance in reproductive success (i.e., variance in family sizes). The assumption of Poisson variance underlies bottleneck tests, yet it is commonly violated in species with high fecundity. Results With large variance in reproductive success (Vk ≥ 40, corresponding to a ratio between effective and census size smaller than 0.1), tests based on allele frequencies, allelic sizes, and DNA sequence polymorphisms (heterozygosity excess, M-ratio, and Tajima’s D test) tend to show erroneous signals of a bottleneck. Similarly, strong evidence of population decline is erroneously detected when ancestral and current population sizes are estimated with the model based method MSVAR. Conclusions Our results suggest caution when interpreting the results of bottleneck tests in species showing high variance in reproductive success. Particularly in species with high fecundity, computer simulations are recommended to confirm the occurrence of a population bottleneck. PMID:24131797

Population aging through survival of the fit and stable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brotto, Tommaso; Bunin, Guy; Kurchan, Jorge

2016-03-01

Motivated by the wide range of known self-replicating systems, some far from genetics, we study a system composed by individuals having an internal dynamics with many possible states that are partially stable, with varying mutation rates. Individuals reproduce and die with a rate that is a property of each state, not necessarily related to its stability, and the offspring is born on the parent’s state. The total population is limited by resources or space, as for example in a chemostat or a Petri dish. Our aim is to show that mutation rate and fitness become more correlated, even if they are completely uncorrelated for an isolated individual, underlining the fact that the interaction induced by limitation of resources is by itself efficient for generating collective effects.

Evidence of cryptic individual specialization in an opportunistic insectivorous bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cryan, Paul M.; Stricker, Craig A.; Wunder, Michael B.

2012-01-01

Habitat use and feeding behaviors of cryptic animals are often poorly understood. Analyses of stable isotope ratios in animal body tissues can help reveal an individual's location and resource use during tissue growth. We investigated variation in stable isotope ratios of 4 elements (H, C, N, and S) in the hair of a sedentary species of insectivorous bat (Eptesicus fuscus) inhabiting a chemically complex urban landscape. Our objective was to quantify population-level isotopic variation and test for evidence of resource specialization by individuals. Bats were sampled over 3 annual molt cycles at maternity roosts in buildings and variance components analysis was used to test whether intraindividual isotopic variation among molts differed from interindividual variation, after controlling for year and roost-group effects. Consistent with prior evidence that E. fuscus is opportunistic in its habitat use and foraging at the population level, we observed wide population-level variation for all isotopes. This variation likely reflects the chemical complexity of the urban landscape studied. However, isotopic variation among years within marked individuals was lower than variation among marked individuals within year for all isotopes, and carbon signatures indicated resource specialization by roost groups and individuals. This is the 1st study to examine variation in stable isotope ratios of individual wild bats over multiple years. Although our results suggest this population tends toward opportunistic habitat use or prey selection, or both, during molt periods, results also indicate that individuals and groups of bats composing the population might be habitat or dietary specialists—a novel finding for insectivorous bats.

Using multiple metrics to assess the effects of forest succession on population status: a comparative study of two terrestrial salamanders in the US Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Hart Welsh; Karen L. Pope; Clara A. Wheeler

2008-01-01

Investigations to determine stable or source-sink animal population dynamics are challenging and often infeasible for most species due to the time and expense of mark-recapture studies and the challenge of life histories attributes that result in low detectability and low recapture probabilities. Often, managers rely solely on occupancy or relative abundance patterns...

Infant feeding practice in medieval Japan: stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of human skeletons from Yuigahama-minami.

PubMed

Tsutaya, Takumi; Shimomi, Akina; Nagaoka, Tomohito; Sawada, Junmei; Hirata, Kazuaki; Yoneda, Minoru

2015-02-01

A longer breastfeeding duration provides various positive effects in subadult health because of abundant immunological factors and nutrients in human breast milk, and decreases the natural fertility of a population through lactational amenorrhea. In this study, we measured stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in the bone collagen of three adults and 45 subadults from the Yuigahama-minami site (from 12th to 14th century) in Kamakura, the early medieval capital of Japan. Marine foods, C3 -based terrestrial foods, and freshwater fish are the primarily protein sources for adults. The changes in the nitrogen isotope ratios of subadults suggest that the relative dietary protein contribution from breast milk started to decrease from 1.1 years of age and ended at 3.8 years. The age at the end of weaning in the Yuigahama-minami population was greater than that in the typical non-industrial populations, a premodern population in the Edo period Japan, and medieval populations in the UK. Skeletons of townspeople from medieval Kamakura indicate severe nutritional stress (e.g., enamel hypoplasia and cribra orbitalia), yet this longer duration of breastfeeding did not compensate adverse effects for nutritional deficiency. The longer breastfeeding period may have been a consequence of complementary food shortage and bad health of subadults. Kamakura experienced urbanization and population increase in the early medieval period. The younger age-at-death distribution and high nutritional stresses in the Yuigahama-minami population and later weaning, which is closely associated with longer inter-birth interval for mothers, suggests that Kamakura developed and increased its population by immigration during urbanization. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impact of flood events on macrobenthic community structure on an intertidal flat developing in the Ohta River Estuary.

PubMed

Nishijima, Wataru; Nakano, Yoichi; Nakai, Satoshi; Okuda, Tetsuji; Imai, Tsuyoshi; Okada, Mitsumasa

2013-09-15

We investigated the effects of river floods on the macrobenthic community of the intertidal flat in the Ohta River Estuary, Japan, from 2005 to 2010. Sediment erosion by flood events ranged from about 2-3 cm to 12 cm, and the salinity dropped to 0‰ even during low-intensity flood events. Cluster analysis of the macrobenthic population showed that the community structure was controlled by the physical disturbance, decreased salinity, or both. The opportunistic polychaete Capitella sp. was the most dominant species in all clusters, and populations of the long-lived polychaete Ceratonereis erythraeensis increased in years with stable flow and almost disappeared in years with intense flooding. The bivalve Musculista senhousia was also an important opportunistic species that formed mats in summer of the stable years and influenced the structure of the macrobenthic community. Our results demonstrate the substantial effects of flood events on the macrobenthic community structure. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Spore Killers

PubMed Central

Nauta, M. J.; Hoekstra, R. F.

1993-01-01

Spore killing in ascomycetes is a special form of segregation distortion. When a strain with the Killer genotype is crossed to a Sensitive type, spore killing is expressed by asci with only half the number of ascospores as usual, all surviving ascospores being of the Killer type. Using population genetic modeling, this paper explores conditions for invasion of Spore killers and for polymorphism of Killers, Sensitives and Resistants (which neither kill, nor get killed), as found in natural populations. The models show that a population with only Killers and Sensitives can never be stable. The invasion of Killers and stable polymorphism only occur if Killers have some additional advantage during the process of spore killing. This may be due to the effects of local sib competition or some kind of ``heterozygous'' advantage in the stage of ascospore formation or in the short diploid stage of the life cycle. This form of segregation distortion appears to be essentially different from other, well-investigated forms, and more field data are needed for a better understanding of spore killing. PMID:8293989

Dentition of moustached tamarins (Saguinus mystax mystax) from Padre Isla, Peru, part 1: quantitative variation.

PubMed

Tornow, Matthew A; Ford, Susan M; Garber, Paul A; de Sa Sauerbrunn, Edward

2006-07-01

Analyses of dental variation in geographically restricted, wild populations of primates are extremely rare; however, such data form the best source for models of likely degrees of variation within and between fossil species. Data from dental casts of a geographically restricted population of moustached tamarins (Saguinus mystax mystax) from Padre Isla, Peru, document high levels of dental variability, as measured by coefficients of variation, in a nonsexually dimorphic species, despite its isolation and small population size. Like other primates, moustached tamarins show lower variability in the dimensions of the first molars and increased variability in the dimensions of the final molars in the toothrow. Moustached tamarins from Padre Isla have a distinctive pattern of variability in the remaining teeth, including more stable tooth lengths in the anterior and posterior portions of the toothrow, and more stable tooth widths in the midregion of the toothrow. High variability in incisor width may be due to age effects of a distinctive diet and pattern of dental wear.

Specific non-monotonous interactions increase persistence of ecological networks.

PubMed

Yan, Chuan; Zhang, Zhibin

2014-03-22

The relationship between stability and biodiversity has long been debated in ecology due to opposing empirical observations and theoretical predictions. Species interaction strength is often assumed to be monotonically related to population density, but the effects on stability of ecological networks of non-monotonous interactions that change signs have not been investigated previously. We demonstrate that for four kinds of non-monotonous interactions, shifting signs to negative or neutral interactions at high population density increases persistence (a measure of stability) of ecological networks, while for the other two kinds of non-monotonous interactions shifting signs to positive interactions at high population density decreases persistence of networks. Our results reveal a novel mechanism of network stabilization caused by specific non-monotonous interaction types through either increasing stable equilibrium points or reducing unstable equilibrium points (or both). These specific non-monotonous interactions may be important in maintaining stable and complex ecological networks, as well as other networks such as genes, neurons, the internet and human societies.

Local Nash equilibrium in social networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Yichao; Aziz-Alaoui, M A; Bertelle, Cyrille; Guan, Jihong

2014-08-29

Nash equilibrium is widely present in various social disputes. As of now, in structured static populations, such as social networks, regular, and random graphs, the discussions on Nash equilibrium are quite limited. In a relatively stable static gaming network, a rational individual has to comprehensively consider all his/her opponents' strategies before they adopt a unified strategy. In this scenario, a new strategy equilibrium emerges in the system. We define this equilibrium as a local Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we present an explicit definition of the local Nash equilibrium for the two-strategy games in structured populations. Based on the definition, we investigate the condition that a system reaches the evolutionary stable state when the individuals play the Prisoner's dilemma and snow-drift game. The local Nash equilibrium provides a way to judge whether a gaming structured population reaches the evolutionary stable state on one hand. On the other hand, it can be used to predict whether cooperators can survive in a system long before the system reaches its evolutionary stable state for the Prisoner's dilemma game. Our work therefore provides a theoretical framework for understanding the evolutionary stable state in the gaming populations with static structures.

Local Nash Equilibrium in Social Networks

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yichao; Aziz-Alaoui, M. A.; Bertelle, Cyrille; Guan, Jihong

2014-01-01

Nash equilibrium is widely present in various social disputes. As of now, in structured static populations, such as social networks, regular, and random graphs, the discussions on Nash equilibrium are quite limited. In a relatively stable static gaming network, a rational individual has to comprehensively consider all his/her opponents' strategies before they adopt a unified strategy. In this scenario, a new strategy equilibrium emerges in the system. We define this equilibrium as a local Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we present an explicit definition of the local Nash equilibrium for the two-strategy games in structured populations. Based on the definition, we investigate the condition that a system reaches the evolutionary stable state when the individuals play the Prisoner's dilemma and snow-drift game. The local Nash equilibrium provides a way to judge whether a gaming structured population reaches the evolutionary stable state on one hand. On the other hand, it can be used to predict whether cooperators can survive in a system long before the system reaches its evolutionary stable state for the Prisoner's dilemma game. Our work therefore provides a theoretical framework for understanding the evolutionary stable state in the gaming populations with static structures. PMID:25169150

Local Nash Equilibrium in Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yichao; Aziz-Alaoui, M. A.; Bertelle, Cyrille; Guan, Jihong

2014-08-01

Nash equilibrium is widely present in various social disputes. As of now, in structured static populations, such as social networks, regular, and random graphs, the discussions on Nash equilibrium are quite limited. In a relatively stable static gaming network, a rational individual has to comprehensively consider all his/her opponents' strategies before they adopt a unified strategy. In this scenario, a new strategy equilibrium emerges in the system. We define this equilibrium as a local Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we present an explicit definition of the local Nash equilibrium for the two-strategy games in structured populations. Based on the definition, we investigate the condition that a system reaches the evolutionary stable state when the individuals play the Prisoner's dilemma and snow-drift game. The local Nash equilibrium provides a way to judge whether a gaming structured population reaches the evolutionary stable state on one hand. On the other hand, it can be used to predict whether cooperators can survive in a system long before the system reaches its evolutionary stable state for the Prisoner's dilemma game. Our work therefore provides a theoretical framework for understanding the evolutionary stable state in the gaming populations with static structures.

Multi-Scale Effects of Nestling Diet on Breeding Performance in a Terrestrial Top Predator Inferred from Stable Isotope Analysis

PubMed Central

Resano-Mayor, Jaime; Hernández-Matías, Antonio; Real, Joan; Moleón, Marcos; Parés, Francesc; Inger, Richard; Bearhop, Stuart

2014-01-01

Inter-individual diet variation within populations is likely to have important ecological and evolutionary implications. The diet-fitness relationships at the individual level and the emerging population processes are, however, poorly understood for most avian predators inhabiting complex terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we use an isotopic approach to assess the trophic ecology of nestlings in a long-lived raptor, the Bonelli’s eagle Aquila fasciata, and investigate whether nestling dietary breath and main prey consumption can affect the species’ reproductive performance at two spatial scales: territories within populations and populations over a large geographic area. At the territory level, those breeding pairs whose nestlings consumed similar diets to the overall population (i.e. moderate consumption of preferred prey, but complemented by alternative prey categories) or those disproportionally consuming preferred prey were more likely to fledge two chicks. An increase in the diet diversity, however, related negatively with productivity. The age and replacements of breeding pair members had also an influence on productivity, with more fledglings associated to adult pairs with few replacements, as expected in long-lived species. At the population level, mean productivity was higher in those population-years with lower dietary breadth and higher diet similarity among territories, which was related to an overall higher consumption of preferred prey. Thus, we revealed a correspondence in diet-fitness relationships at two spatial scales: territories and populations. We suggest that stable isotope analyses may be a powerful tool to monitor the diet of terrestrial avian predators on large spatio-temporal scales, which could serve to detect potential changes in the availability of those prey on which predators depend for breeding. We encourage ecologists and evolutionary and conservation biologists concerned with the multi-scale fitness consequences of inter-individual variation in resource use to employ similar stable isotope-based approaches, which can be successfully applied to complex ecosystems such as the Mediterranean. PMID:24743233

Stable olfactory sensory neuron in vivo physiology during normal aging.

PubMed

Kass, Marley D; Czarnecki, Lindsey A; McGann, John P

2018-05-08

Normal aging is associated with a number of smell impairments that are paralleled by age-dependent changes in the peripheral olfactory system, including decreases in olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs) and in the regenerative capacity of the epithelium. Thus, an age-dependent degradation of sensory input to the brain is one proposed mechanism for the loss of olfactory function in older populations. Here, we tested this hypothesis by performing in vivo optical neurophysiology in 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24-month-old mice. We visualized odor-evoked neurotransmitter release from populations of OSNs into olfactory bulb glomeruli, and found that these sensory inputs are actually quite stable during normal aging. Specifically, the magnitude and number of odor-evoked glomerular responses were comparable across all ages, and there was no effect of age on the sensitivity of OSN responses to odors or on the neural discriminability of different sensory maps. These results suggest that the brain's olfactory bulbs do not receive deteriorated input during aging and that local bulbar circuitry might adapt to maintain stable nerve input. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species.

PubMed

Kleijn, David; Raemakers, Ivo

2008-07-01

Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem by studying species' characteristics on specimens that were collected before the onset of their decline and preserved in natural history museums. In northwestern Europe, some bumble bee species declined dramatically during the 20th century whereas other, ecologically similar, species maintained stable populations. A long-standing debate focuses on whether this is caused by declining species having stricter host plant preferences. We compared the composition of pollen loads of five bumble bee species with stable populations and five with declining populations using museum specimens collected before 1950 in Belgium, England, and The Netherlands. Prior to 1950, the number of plant taxa in pollen loads of declining species was almost one-third lower than that in stable species even though individuals of stable and declining species generally originated from the same areas. There were no systematic differences in the composition of pollen loads between stable and declining species, but the plant taxa preferred by declining species before 1950 had experienced a stronger decline in the 20th century than those preferred by stable species. In 2004 and 2005, we surveyed the areas where bumble bees had been caught in the past and compared the composition of past and present pollen loads of the stable, but not of the by now locally extinct declining species. The number of collected pollen taxa was similar, but the composition differed significantly between the two periods. Differences in composition reflected the major changes in land use in northwestern Europe but also the spread of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera. The main question now is why declining species apparently were not able to switch to less preferred food plants when stable species were. This study shows that natural history collections can play an important role in improving our understanding of the ecological mechanisms driving species population change.

Does media coverage influence the spread of drug addiction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Li, Jun

2017-09-01

In this paper, a three dimensional drug model is constructed to investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of drug addiction. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number R0. The drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 and the drug addiction equilibrium is locally stable if R0 > 1. The results demonstrate that the media effect in human population cannot change the stabilities of equilibria but can affect the number of drug addicts. Sensitivity analyses are performed to seek for effective control measures for drug treatment. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Heavy with child? Pregnancy status and stable isotope ratios as determined from biopsies of humpback whales.

PubMed

Clark, Casey T; Fleming, Alyson H; Calambokidis, John; Kellar, Nicholas M; Allen, Camryn D; Catelani, Krista N; Robbins, Michelle; Beaulieu, Nicole E; Steel, Debbie; Harvey, James T

2016-01-01

Understanding reproductive rates of wild animal populations is crucially important for management and conservation. Assessing pregnancy status of free-ranging cetaceans has historically been difficult; however, recent advances in analytical techniques have allowed the diagnosis of pregnancy from small samples of blubber tissue. The primary objectives of this study were as follows: (i) to test the efficacy of blubber progesterone assays as a tool for diagnosing pregnancy in humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae ); (ii) to estimate the pregnancy rate of humpback whales in Monterey Bay, California; and (iii) to investigate the relationship between stable isotopes and reproductive status of these whales. Progesterone concentrations of female whales fell into two distinct groups, allowing for diagnostic separation of pregnant and non-pregnant individuals. Pregnancy rate varied between years of the study (48.4%% in 2011 and 18.5% in 2012), but fell within the range of other estimates of reproductive success for this population. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios were examined to investigate the impacts of pregnancy on these values. Neither δ 15 N nor δ 13 C varied in a consistent way among animals of different sex or reproductive status. The relationship between δ 15 N and δ 13 C was strongly positive for male and non-pregnant female humpbacks; however, no relationship existed for pregnant whales. This difference may be indicative of the effects of pregnancy on δ 15 N, resulting from tissue synthesis and reduced excretion of nitrogenous waste, as well as on δ 13 C through increased mobilization of lipid stores to meet the energetic demands of pregnancy. Ultimately, our results support the use of blubber progesterone assays for diagnosing pregnancy in humpback whales and indicate that, when paired with other approaches (e.g. stable isotope analysis), pregnancy status can be an informative tool for addressing questions about animal physiology, ecology and population biology. This information will provide for more effective management and conservation efforts in a rapidly changing world.

Heavy with child? Pregnancy status and stable isotope ratios as determined from biopsies of humpback whales

PubMed Central

Fleming, Alyson H.; Calambokidis, John; Kellar, Nicholas M.; Allen, Camryn D.; Catelani, Krista N.; Robbins, Michelle; Beaulieu, Nicole E.; Steel, Debbie; Harvey, James T.

2016-01-01

Abstract Understanding reproductive rates of wild animal populations is crucially important for management and conservation. Assessing pregnancy status of free-ranging cetaceans has historically been difficult; however, recent advances in analytical techniques have allowed the diagnosis of pregnancy from small samples of blubber tissue. The primary objectives of this study were as follows: (i) to test the efficacy of blubber progesterone assays as a tool for diagnosing pregnancy in humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae); (ii) to estimate the pregnancy rate of humpback whales in Monterey Bay, California; and (iii) to investigate the relationship between stable isotopes and reproductive status of these whales. Progesterone concentrations of female whales fell into two distinct groups, allowing for diagnostic separation of pregnant and non-pregnant individuals. Pregnancy rate varied between years of the study (48.4%% in 2011 and 18.5% in 2012), but fell within the range of other estimates of reproductive success for this population. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios were examined to investigate the impacts of pregnancy on these values. Neither δ15N nor δ13C varied in a consistent way among animals of different sex or reproductive status. The relationship between δ15N and δ13C was strongly positive for male and non-pregnant female humpbacks; however, no relationship existed for pregnant whales. This difference may be indicative of the effects of pregnancy on δ15N, resulting from tissue synthesis and reduced excretion of nitrogenous waste, as well as on δ13C through increased mobilization of lipid stores to meet the energetic demands of pregnancy. Ultimately, our results support the use of blubber progesterone assays for diagnosing pregnancy in humpback whales and indicate that, when paired with other approaches (e.g. stable isotope analysis), pregnancy status can be an informative tool for addressing questions about animal physiology, ecology and population biology. This information will provide for more effective management and conservation efforts in a rapidly changing world. PMID:27766149

Temporal Stability of Genetic Variability and Differentiation in the Three-Spined Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2015-01-01

Temporal variation in allele frequencies, whether caused by deterministic or stochastic forces, can inform us about interesting demographic and evolutionary phenomena occurring in wild populations. In spite of the continued surge of interest in the genetics of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations, little attention has been paid towards the temporal stability of allele frequency distributions, and whether there are consistent differences in effective size (Ne) of local populations. We investigated temporal stability of genetic variability and differentiation in 15 microsatellite loci within and among eight collection sites of varying habitat type, surveyed twice over a six-year time period. In addition, Nes were estimated with the expectation that they would be lowest in isolated ponds, intermediate in larger lakes and largest in open marine sites. In spite of the marked differences in genetic variability and differentiation among the study sites, the temporal differences in allele frequencies, as well as measures of genetic diversity and differentiation, were negligible. Accordingly, the Ne estimates were temporally stable, but tended to be lower in ponds than in lake or marine habitats. Hence, we conclude that allele frequencies in putatively neutral markers in three-spined sticklebacks seem to be temporally stable – at least over periods of few generations – across a wide range of habitat types differing markedly in levels of genetic variability, effective population size and gene flow. PMID:25853707

Temporal stability of genetic variability and differentiation in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2015-01-01

Temporal variation in allele frequencies, whether caused by deterministic or stochastic forces, can inform us about interesting demographic and evolutionary phenomena occurring in wild populations. In spite of the continued surge of interest in the genetics of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations, little attention has been paid towards the temporal stability of allele frequency distributions, and whether there are consistent differences in effective size (Ne) of local populations. We investigated temporal stability of genetic variability and differentiation in 15 microsatellite loci within and among eight collection sites of varying habitat type, surveyed twice over a six-year time period. In addition, Nes were estimated with the expectation that they would be lowest in isolated ponds, intermediate in larger lakes and largest in open marine sites. In spite of the marked differences in genetic variability and differentiation among the study sites, the temporal differences in allele frequencies, as well as measures of genetic diversity and differentiation, were negligible. Accordingly, the Ne estimates were temporally stable, but tended to be lower in ponds than in lake or marine habitats. Hence, we conclude that allele frequencies in putatively neutral markers in three-spined sticklebacks seem to be temporally stable - at least over periods of few generations - across a wide range of habitat types differing markedly in levels of genetic variability, effective population size and gene flow.

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

PubMed

Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

2012-02-01

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

PubMed

Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

2013-10-01

To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family.

A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.

PubMed

Veprauskas, Amy; Cushing, J M

2017-03-01

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.

The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary non-invasive ventilation in patients with end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Dretzke, Janine; Blissett, Deirdre; Dave, Chirag; Mukherjee, Rahul; Price, Malcolm; Bayliss, Sue; Wu, Xiaoying; Jordan, Rachel; Jowett, Sue; Turner, Alice M; Moore, David

2015-10-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic progressive lung disease characterised by non-reversible airflow obstruction. Exacerbations are a key cause of morbidity and mortality and place a considerable burden on health-care systems. While there is evidence that patients benefit from non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in hospital during an acute exacerbation, evidence supporting home use for more stable COPD patients is limited. In the U.K., domiciliary NIV is considered on health economic grounds in patients after three hospital admissions for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV by systematic review and economic evaluation. Bibliographic databases, conference proceedings and ongoing trial registries up to September 2014. Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying relevant clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies assessing NIV compared with usual care or comparing different types of NIV. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane guidelines and relevant economic checklists. Results for primary effectiveness outcomes (mortality, hospitalisations, exacerbations and quality of life) were presented, where possible, in forest plots. A speculative Markov decision model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV with usual care from a UK perspective for post-hospital and more stable populations separately. Thirty-one controlled effectiveness studies were identified, which report a variety of outcomes. For stable patients, a modest volume of evidence found no benefit from domiciliary NIV for survival and some non-significant beneficial trends for hospitalisations and quality of life. For post-hospital patients, no benefit from NIV could be shown in terms of survival (from randomised controlled trials) and findings for hospital admissions were inconsistent and based on limited evidence. No conclusions could be drawn regarding potential benefit from different types of NIV. No cost-effectiveness studies of domiciliary NIV were identified. Economic modelling suggested that NIV may be cost-effective in a stable population at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £28,162), but this is associated with uncertainty. In the case of the post-hospital population, results for three separate base cases ranged from usual care dominating to NIV being cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than £10,000 per QALY gained. All estimates were sensitive to effectiveness estimates, length of benefit from NIV (currently unknown) and some costs. Modelling suggested that reductions in the rate of hospital admissions per patient per year of 24% and 15% in the stable and post-hospital populations, respectively, are required for NIV to be cost-effective. Evidence on key clinical outcomes remains limited, particularly quality-of-life and long-term (> 2 years) effects. Economic modelling should be viewed as speculative because of uncertainty around effect estimates, baseline risks, length of benefit of NIV and limited quality-of-life/utility data. The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV remains uncertain and the findings in this report are sensitive to emergent data. Further evidence is required to identify patients most likely to benefit from domiciliary NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting NIV and equipment settings. The results from this report will need to be re-examined in the light of any new trial results, particularly in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the economic model. Any new randomised controlled trials should consider including a sham non-invasive ventilation arm and/or a higher- and lower-pressure arm. Individual participant data analyses may help to determine whether or not there are any patient characteristics or equipment settings that are predictive of a benefit of NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting (and potentially discounting) NIV. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012003286. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Does landscape fragmentation influence sex ratio of dioecious plants? A case study of Pistacia chinensis in the Thousand-Island Lake region of China.

PubMed

Yu, Lin; Lu, Jianbo

2011-01-01

The Thousand-Island Lake region in Zhejiang Province, China is a highly fragmented landscape with a clear point-in-time of fragmentation as a result of flooding to form the reservoir. Islands in the artificial lake were surveyed to examine how population sex ratio of a dioecious plant specie Pistacia chinensis B. was affected by landscape fragmentation. A natural population on the mainland near the lake was also surveyed for comparison. Population size, sex ratio and diameter at breast height (DBH) of individuals were measured over 2 years. More than 1,500 individuals, distributed in 31 populations, were studied. Soil nitrogen in the different populations was measured to identify the relationship between sex ratio and micro-environmental conditions. In accordance with the results of many other reports on biased sex ratio in relation to environmental gradient, we found that poor soil nitrogen areas fostered male-biased populations. In addition, the degree of sex ratio bias increased with decreasing population size and population connectivity. The biased sex ratios were only found in younger individuals (less than 50 years old) in small populations, while a stable 1∶1 sex ratio was found in the large population on the mainland. We concluded that the effects of landscape fragmentation on the dioecious population sex ratio were mainly achieved in relation to changing soil nitrogen conditions in patches and pollen limitation within and among populations. Large populations could maintain a more suitable environment in terms of nutrient conditions and pollen flow, subsequently maintaining a stable sex ratio in dioecious plant populations. Both micro-environmental factors and spatial structure should be considered in fragmented landscape for the conservation of dioecious plant species.

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

PubMed

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25). Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15) and 0.77 (SE +-0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

The effects of age and environment on the expression of inbreeding depression in Eucalyptus globulus

PubMed Central

Costa e Silva, J; Hardner, C; Tilyard, P; Potts, B M

2011-01-01

Inbreeding adversely affects fitness traits in many plant and animal species, and the magnitude, stability and genetic basis of inbreeding depression (ID) will have short- and long-term evolutionary consequences. The effects of four degrees of inbreeding (selfing, f=50% full- and half-sib matings, f=25 and 12.5% and unrelated outcrosses, f=0%) on survival and growth of an island population of Eucalyptus globulus were studied at two sites for over 14 years. For selfs, ID in survival increased over time, reaching a maximum of 49% by age 14 years. However, their inbreeding depression for stem diameter remained relatively stable with age, and ranged from 28 to 36% across years and sites. ID for survival was markedly greater on the more productive site, possibly due to greater and earlier onset of inter-tree competition, but was similar on both sites for the diameter of survivors. The deleterious trait response to increasing inbreeding coefficients was linear for survival and diameter. Non-significant quadratic effects suggested that epistasis did not contribute considerably to the observed ID at the population level. Among- and within-family coefficients of variation for diameter increased with inbreeding degree, and the variance among the outcrossed families was significant only on the more productive site. The performance of self-families for diameter was highly stable between sites. This suggests that, for species with mixed mating systems, environmentally stable inbreeding effects in open-pollinated progenies may tend to mask the additive genotype-by-environment interaction for fitness traits and the adaptive response to the environment. PMID:21224873

The short-term effects of three molluscicides on the microflora and microfauna of small, biologically stable ponds in Southern Rhodesia.

PubMed

SHIFF, C J; GARNETT, B

1961-01-01

Where large-scale molluscicide applications are anticipated, it is important to investigate the effects of the chemicals to be used on the freshwater microflora and fauna existing in the bodies of water to be treated. The food chains of which these organisms form basic parts are important in the general ecology leading up to fish and even to man. Some observations on the direct short-term effect of three molluscicides-copper sulfate, sodium pentachlorophenate and Bayer 73-on the populations of certain plankton organisms, carried out in biologically stable ponds in Southern Rhodesia, are reported on in this paper. It appears that copper sulfate has the most drastic and long-lasting effects on these organisms. The authors stress that snail control measures involving molluscicides should be so designed as to effect the minimum alteration to the ecological balance of the freshwater habitat.

Quantitative trait locus analysis of heterosis for plant height and ear height in an elite maize hybrid zhengdan 958 by design III.

PubMed

Li, Hongjian; Yang, Qingsong; Fan, Nannan; Zhang, Ming; Zhai, Huijie; Ni, Zhongfu; Zhang, Yirong

2017-04-17

Plant height (PH) and ear height (EH) are two important agronomic traits in maize selection breeding. F 1 hybrid exhibit significant heterosis for PH and EH as compared to their parental inbred lines. To understand the genetic basis of heterosis controlling PH and EH, we conducted quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis using a recombinant inbreed line (RIL) based design III population derived from the elite maize hybrid Zhengdan 958 in five environments. A total of 14 environmentally stable QTLs were identified, and the number of QTLs for Z 1 and Z 2 populations was six and eight, respectively. Notably, all the eight environmentally stable QTLs for Z 2 were characterized by overdominance effect (OD), suggesting that overdominant QTLs were the most important contributors to heterosis for PH and EH. Furthermore, 14 environmentally stable QTLs were anchored on six genomic regions, among which four are trait-specific QTLs, suggesting that the genetic basis for PH and EH is partially different. Additionally, qPH.A-1.3, modifying about 10 centimeters of PH, was further validated in backcross populations. The genetic basis for PH and EH is partially different, and overdominant QTLs are important factors for heterosis of PH and EH. A major QTL qPH.A-1.3 may be a desired target for genetic improvement of maize plant height.

Tangled nature: a model of evolutionary ecology.

PubMed

Christensen, Kim; di Collobiano, Simone A; Hall, Matt; Jensen, Henrik J

2002-05-07

We discuss a simple model of co-evolution. In order to emphasize the effect of interaction between individuals, the entire population is subjected to the same physical environment. Species are emergent structures and extinction, origination and diversity are entirely a consequence of co-evolutionary interaction between individuals. For comparison, we consider both asexual and sexually reproducing populations. In either case, the system evolves through periods of hectic reorganization separated by periods of coherent stable coexistence. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of canine parvovirus on gray wolves in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.; Goyal, S.M.

1995-01-01

Long-term effects of disease on wild animal population demography is not well documented. We studied a gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in a 2,060km2 area of Minnesota for 15 years to determine its response to canine parvovirus (CPV). The CPV had little effect (P gt 0.05) on wolf population size while epizootic during 1979-83. However, after CPV became enzootic, percentage of pups captured during summer-fall 1984-93 and changes in subsequent winter wolf numbers were each inversely related to the serological prevalence of CPV in wolves captured during July-November (r2 = 0.39 and 0.72, P = 0.05 and lt 0.01, respectively). The CPV antibody prevalence in adult wolves increased to 87% in 1993 (r2 = 0.28, P = 0.05). However, because population level remained stable, CPV-induced mortality appeared to compensate for other mortality factors such as starvation. We -predict that the winter wolf population will decline when CPV prevalence in adults consistently exceeds 76%. The CPV may become important in limiting wolf populations.

Flower thermoregulation facilitates fertilization in Asian sacred lotus

PubMed Central

Li, Jiao-Kun; Huang, Shuang-Quan

2009-01-01

Background and Aims The thermoregulatory flower of the Asian sacred lotus (Nelumbo nucifera) can maintain a relatively stable temperature despite great variations in ambient temperature during anthesis. The thermoregulation has been hypothesized to offer a direct energy reward for pollinators in lotus flowers. This study aims to examine whether the stable temperature maintained in the floral chamber influences the fertilization process and seed development. Methods An artificial refrigeration instrument was employed to cool flowers during the fertilization process and post-fertilization period in an experimental population. The effect of temperature on post-pollination events was also examined by removing petals in two field populations. Key Results Treatments with low floral temperature did not reduce stigma receptivity or pollen viability in undehisced anthers. Low temperature during the fertilization period significantly decreased seed set per flower but low temperature during the phase of seed development had no effect, suggesting that temperature regulation by lotus flowers facilitated fertilization success. Hand-pollination treatments in two field populations indicated that seed set of flowers with petals removed was lower than that of intact flowers in north China, where ambient temperatures are low, but not in south China, confirming that reducing the temperature of carpels did influence post-pollination events. Conclusions The experiments suggest that floral thermoregulation in lotus could enhance female reproductive success by facilitating fertilization. PMID:19282320

Flower thermoregulation facilitates fertilization in Asian sacred lotus.

PubMed

Li, Jiao-Kun; Huang, Shuang-Quan

2009-05-01

The thermoregulatory flower of the Asian sacred lotus (Nelumbo nucifera) can maintain a relatively stable temperature despite great variations in ambient temperature during anthesis. The thermoregulation has been hypothesized to offer a direct energy reward for pollinators in lotus flowers. This study aims to examine whether the stable temperature maintained in the floral chamber influences the fertilization process and seed development. An artificial refrigeration instrument was employed to cool flowers during the fertilization process and post-fertilization period in an experimental population. The effect of temperature on post-pollination events was also examined by removing petals in two field populations. Treatments with low floral temperature did not reduce stigma receptivity or pollen viability in undehisced anthers. Low temperature during the fertilization period significantly decreased seed set per flower but low temperature during the phase of seed development had no effect, suggesting that temperature regulation by lotus flowers facilitated fertilization success. Hand-pollination treatments in two field populations indicated that seed set of flowers with petals removed was lower than that of intact flowers in north China, where ambient temperatures are low, but not in south China, confirming that reducing the temperature of carpels did influence post-pollination events. The experiments suggest that floral thermoregulation in lotus could enhance female reproductive success by facilitating fertilization.

Anabolic hormone profiles in elite military men.

PubMed

Taylor, Marcus K; Kviatkovsky, Shiloah A; Hernández, Lisa M; Sargent, Paul; Segal, Sabrina; Granger, Douglas A

2016-06-01

We recently characterized the awakening responses and daily profiles of the catabolic stress hormone cortisol in elite military men. Anabolic hormones follow a similar daily pattern and may counteract the catabolic effects of cortisol. This companion report is the first to characterize daily profiles of anabolic hormones dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and testosterone in this population. Overall, the men in this study displayed anabolic hormone profiles comparable to that of healthy, athletic populations. Consistent with the cortisol findings in our prior report, summary parameters of magnitude (hormone output) within the first hour after awakening displayed superior stability versus summary parameters of pattern for both DHEA (r range: 0.77-0.82) and testosterone (r range: 0.62-0.69). Summary parameters of evening function were stable for the two hormones (both p<0.001), while the absolute decrease in testosterone across the day was a stable proxy of diurnal function (p<0.001). Removal of noncompliant subjects did not appreciably affect concentration estimates for either hormone at any time point, nor did it alter the repeatability of any summary parameter. The first of its kind, this report enables accurate estimations of anabolic balance and resultant effects upon health and human performance in this highly resilient yet chronically stressed population. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

PubMed Central

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+−0.25). Comparison of model results with the “known population” of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+−0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+−0.15) and 0.77 (SE +−0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +−0.19 and 0.68, SE +−0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+−0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation. PMID:25006879

Adaptive Topographies and Equilibrium Selection in an Evolutionary Game

PubMed Central

Osinga, Hinke M.; Marshall, James A. R.

2015-01-01

It has long been known in the field of population genetics that adaptive topographies, in which population equilibria maximise mean population fitness for a trait regardless of its genetic bases, do not exist. Whether one chooses to model selection acting on a single locus or multiple loci does matter. In evolutionary game theory, analysis of a simple and general game involving distinct roles for the two players has shown that whether strategies are modelled using a single ‘locus’ or one ‘locus’ for each role, the stable population equilibria are unchanged and correspond to the fitness-maximising evolutionary stable strategies of the game. This is curious given the aforementioned population genetical results on the importance of the genetic bases of traits. Here we present a dynamical systems analysis of the game with roles detailing how, while the stable equilibria in this game are unchanged by the number of ‘loci’ modelled, equilibrium selection may differ under the two modelling approaches. PMID:25706762

Stable isotopes in Lithuanian bioarcheological material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skipityte, Raminta; Jankauskas, Rimantas; Remeikis, Vidmantas

2015-04-01

Investigation of bioarcheological material of ancient human populations allows us to understand the subsistence behavior associated with various adaptations to the environment. Feeding habits are essential to the survival and growth of ancient populations. Stable isotope analysis is accepted tool in paleodiet (Schutkowski et al, 1999) and paleoenvironmental (Zernitskaya et al, 2014) studies. However, stable isotopes can be useful not only in investigating human feeding habits but also in describing social and cultural structure of the past populations (Le Huray and Schutkowski, 2005). Only few stable isotope investigations have been performed before in Lithuanian region suggesting a quite uniform diet between males and females and protein intake from freshwater fish and animal protein. Previously, stable isotope analysis has only been used to study a Stone Age population however, more recently studies have been conducted on Iron Age and Late medieval samples (Jacobs et al, 2009). Anyway, there was a need for more precise examination. Stable isotope analysis were performed on human bone collagen and apatite samples in this study. Data represented various ages (from 5-7th cent. to 18th cent.). Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis on medieval populations indicated that individuals in studied sites in Lithuania were almost exclusively consuming C3 plants, C3 fed terrestrial animals, and some freshwater resources. Current investigation demonstrated social differences between elites and country people and is promising in paleodietary and daily life reconstruction. Acknowledgement I thank prof. dr. G. Grupe, Director of the Anthropological and Palaeoanatomical State Collection in Munich for providing the opportunity to work in her laboratory. The part of this work was funded by DAAD. Antanaitis-Jacobs, Indre, et al. "Diet in early Lithuanian prehistory and the new stable isotope evidence." Archaeologia Baltica 12 (2009): 12-30. Le Huray, Jonathan D., and Holger Schutkowski. "Diet and social status during the La Tène period in Bohemia: carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis of bone collagen from Kutná Hora-Karlov and Radovesice." Journal of Anthropological Archaeology 24.2 (2005): 135-147. Schutkowski, Holger, et al. "Diet, status and decomposition at Weingarten: trace element and isotope analyses on early mediaeval skeletal material." Journal of Archaeological Science 26.6 (1999): 675-685. Zernitskaya, Valentina, et al. "Vegetation pattern and sedimentation changes in the context of the Lateglacial climatic events: Case study of Staroje Lake (Eastern Belarus)." Quaternary International (2014).

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née.

PubMed

Gugger, Paul F; Ikegami, Makihiko; Sork, Victoria L

2013-07-01

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate-based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large-scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28-1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11-18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion-contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Local interactions lead to pathogen-driven change to host population dynamics.

PubMed

Boots, Michael; Childs, Dylan; Reuman, Daniel C; Mealor, Michael

2009-10-13

Individuals tend to interact more strongly with nearby individuals or within particular social groups. Recent theoretical advances have demonstrated that these within-population relationships can have fundamental implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, contact networks are crucial to the spread and evolution of disease. However, the theory remains largely untested experimentally. Here, we manipulate habitat viscosity and thereby the frequency of local interactions in an insect-pathogen model system in which the virus had previously been shown to have little effect on host population dynamics. At high viscosity, the pathogen caused the collapse of dominant and otherwise stable host generation cycles. Modeling shows that this collapse can be explained by an increase in the frequency of intracohort interactions relative to intercohort interactions, leading to more disease transmission. Our work emphasizes that spatial structure can subtly mediate intraspecific competition and the effects of natural enemies. A decrease in dispersal in a population may actually (sometimes rather counterintuitively) intensify the effects of parasites. Broadly, because anthropological and environmental change often cause changes in population mixing, our work highlights the potential for dramatic changes in the effects of parasites on host populations.

Darwinism in quantum systems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, A.; Toor, A. H.

2002-03-01

We investigate the role of quantum mechanical effects in the central stability concept of evolutionary game theory, i.e., an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS). Using two and three-player symmetric quantum games we show how the presence of quantum phenomenon of entanglement can be crucial to decide the course of evolutionary dynamics in a population of interacting individuals.

O' mother where wert thou? Maternal strategies in the southern elephant seal: a stable isotope investigation

PubMed Central

Authier, Matthieu; Dragon, Anne-Cécile; Richard, Pierre; Cherel, Yves; Guinet, Christophe

2012-01-01

Maternal effects are widespread in ecology and can alter the dynamics of a population. We investigated the impact of maternal foraging strategies on offspring weaning mass—a proxy of maternal foraging success and of offspring survival—in southern elephant seals on îles Kerguelen. Using 4 years of data, we modelled pup weaning mass as a two-component mixture and used blood stable isotope values to discriminate between maternal foraging strategies previously identified from bio-logging studies. Carbon isotope ratio was a strong predictor of weaning mass, but the relationship was non-monotonic in contrast to a priori expectations. Females foraging in the interfrontal zone weaned pups with a smaller mass compared with females foraging in Antarctic waters. Pup mass was positively correlated with a proxy of global primary production in the interfrontal zone for small weanlings. Maternal effects, via a poor foraging efficiency in the 1970s, may help explain the large population decrease observed at that time on îles Kerguelen because of an overall decrease in pup weaning mass, survival and subsequent recruitment. PMID:22398171

Non-volatile spin bistability based on ferromagnet-semiconductor quantum dot hybrid nanostructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Yuriy; Enaya, Hani; Zavada, John; Kim, Ki Wook

2008-03-01

Electrical manipulation of a memory cell based on bistability effect in a nanostructure consisting of a semiconductor quantum dot (QD) adjoining on opposite sides with a dielectric ferromagnetic layer (DFL) and a reservoir of itinerant holes is investigated theoretically. The operating principle is based on the interplay between the exchange field of the holes Bh acting on the magnetization vector of the DFL M perpendicular to structure plane and the anisotropy field Ba which aligns M along the plane. At low hole population of the QD (Bh<Ba), the subsequent M rotation will decrease the hole energy in the QD; hence the high hole population state is sustained (second stable state ``1'') under a fixed electro-chemical potential set by the reservoir even after bias is removed. The analysis of bit retention time of the proposed memory demonstrates the feasibility of the device with lateral QD size at least 30 nm under room temperature operation. Another advantage is the extremely small dissipative energy for Write/Erase operations.

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

PubMed

Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

2016-09-01

The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability.

Wind Farm Facilities in Germany Kill Noctule Bats from Near and Far

PubMed Central

Lehnert, Linn S.; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Schönborn, Sophia; Lindecke, Oliver; Niermann, Ivo; Voigt, Christian C.

2014-01-01

Over recent years, it became widely accepted that alternative, renewable energy may come at some risk for wildlife, for example, when wind turbines cause large numbers of bat fatalities. To better assess likely populations effects of wind turbine related wildlife fatalities, we studied the geographical origin of the most common bat species found dead below German wind turbines, the noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula). We measured stable isotope ratios of non-exchangeable hydrogen in fur keratin to separate migrants from local individuals, used a linear mixed-effects model to identify temporal, spatial and biological factors explaining the variance in measured stable isotope ratios and determined the geographical breeding provenance of killed migrants using isoscape origin models. We found that 72% of noctule bat casualties (n = 136) were of local origin, while 28% were long-distance migrants. These findings highlight that bat fatalities at German wind turbines may affect both local and distant populations. Our results indicated a sex and age-specific vulnerability of bats towards lethal accidents at turbines, i.e. a relatively high proportion of killed females were recorded among migratory individuals, whereas more juveniles than adults were recorded among killed bats of local origin. Migratory noctule bats were found to originate from distant populations in the Northeastern parts of Europe. The large catchment areas of German wind turbines and high vulnerability of female and juvenile noctule bats call for immediate action to reduce the negative cross-boundary effects of bat fatalities at wind turbines on local and distant populations. Further, our study highlights the importance of implementing effective mitigation measures and developing species and scale-specific conservation approaches on both national and international levels to protect source populations of bats. The efficacy of local compensatory measures appears doubtful, at least for migrant noctule bats, considering the large geographical catchment areas of German wind turbines for this species. PMID:25118805

Wind farm facilities in Germany kill noctule bats from near and far.

PubMed

Lehnert, Linn S; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Schönborn, Sophia; Lindecke, Oliver; Niermann, Ivo; Voigt, Christian C

2014-01-01

Over recent years, it became widely accepted that alternative, renewable energy may come at some risk for wildlife, for example, when wind turbines cause large numbers of bat fatalities. To better assess likely populations effects of wind turbine related wildlife fatalities, we studied the geographical origin of the most common bat species found dead below German wind turbines, the noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula). We measured stable isotope ratios of non-exchangeable hydrogen in fur keratin to separate migrants from local individuals, used a linear mixed-effects model to identify temporal, spatial and biological factors explaining the variance in measured stable isotope ratios and determined the geographical breeding provenance of killed migrants using isoscape origin models. We found that 72% of noctule bat casualties (n = 136) were of local origin, while 28% were long-distance migrants. These findings highlight that bat fatalities at German wind turbines may affect both local and distant populations. Our results indicated a sex and age-specific vulnerability of bats towards lethal accidents at turbines, i.e. a relatively high proportion of killed females were recorded among migratory individuals, whereas more juveniles than adults were recorded among killed bats of local origin. Migratory noctule bats were found to originate from distant populations in the Northeastern parts of Europe. The large catchment areas of German wind turbines and high vulnerability of female and juvenile noctule bats call for immediate action to reduce the negative cross-boundary effects of bat fatalities at wind turbines on local and distant populations. Further, our study highlights the importance of implementing effective mitigation measures and developing species and scale-specific conservation approaches on both national and international levels to protect source populations of bats. The efficacy of local compensatory measures appears doubtful, at least for migrant noctule bats, considering the large geographical catchment areas of German wind turbines for this species.

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Estimates of epistatic and pleiotropic effects of casein alpha s1 (CSN1S1) and thyroglobulin (TG) genetic markers on beef heifer performance traits enhanced by selection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genetic marker effects and type of inheritance are estimated with poor precision when minor marker allele frequencies are low. A stable composite population (MARC II) was subjected to marker assisted selection for two years to equalize CSN1S1 and TG genetic marker frequencies to evaluate the epista...

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

2006-01-01

Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

The knight stick trap and knight stick sticky wraps: new tools for stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae) management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The stable fly is a noxious hematophagous pest of livestock, feral animals and humans. In the US, traps have been used for many years to survey stable flies and affect some degree of population reduction. A new stable fly trap, the Knight Stick (KS), has recently appeared on the market and studies w...

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species.

PubMed

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949-1955 and 1975-1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline.

Long-term effects of timber harvesting on forest soil communities and their catabolic capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohn, W. W.

2016-12-01

We examined the effect of forest harvesting on metagenomes of soil communities in ecozones across North America. The overall effect of harvesting on community composition was very small relative to major differences between soil horizons and among geographically distinct ecozones. However, in some ecozones, harvesting substantially altered bacterial and fungal community composition and diminished the genetic potential for biomass decomposition while increasing the potential for nitrogen cycling. Stable isotope probing identified populations involved in hemicellulose and cellulose decomposition. Known cellulolytic organisms were found in the organic soil layer, while novel cellulolytic organisms were identified in the mineral soil layer. Lignolytic populations identified were mainly bacterial, and metagenomics analysis identified lignin degradation enzymes in the genomes of some of these populations. In some ecozones, cellulolytic and hemicellulolytic populations were substantially impacted by harvesting. Soil carbon, nitrogen and pH were related to the relative susceptibility of forest soil communities in the different ecozones to harvesting impacts.

Mathematics and mallard management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

Waterfowl managers can effectively use simple population models to aid in making management decisions. We present a basic model of the change in population size as related to survival and recruitment. A management technique designed to increase survival of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) by limiting harvest on the Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota, is used to illustrate the application of models in decision making. The analysis suggests that the management technique would be of limited effectiveness. In a 2nd example, the change in mallard population in central North Dakota is related to implementing programs to create dense nesting cover with or without supplementary predator control. The analysis suggests that large tracts of land would be required to achieve a hypothetical management objective of increasing harvest by 50% while maintaining a stable population. Less land would be required if predator reduction were used in combination with cover management, but questions about effectiveness and ecological implications of large scale predator reduction remain unresolved. The use of models as a guide to planning research responsive to the needs of management is illustrated.

Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential rates of change in direct and indirect effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, R.C.; Shears, N.T.; Alcala, A.C.; Barrett, N.S.; Edgar, G.J.; Lafferty, K.D.; McClanahan, T.R.; Russ, G.R.

2010-01-01

Decadal-scale observations of marine reserves suggest that indirect effects on taxa that occur through cascading trophic interactions take longer to develop than direct effects on target species. Combining and analyzing a unique set of long-term time series of ecologic data in and out of fisheries closures from disparate regions, we found that the time to initial detection of direct effects on target species (+ or -SE) was 5.13 + or - 1.9 years, whereas initial detection of indirect effects on other taxa, which were often trait mediated, took significantly longer (13.1 + or - 2.0 years). Most target species showed initial direct effects, but their trajectories over time were highly variable. Many target species continued to increase, some leveled off, and others decreased. Decreases were due to natural fluctuations, fishing impacts from outside reserves, or indirect effects from target species at higher trophic levels. The average duration of stable periods for direct effects was 6.2 + or - 1.2 years, even in studies of more than 15 years. For indirect effects, stable periods averaged 9.1 + or - 1.6 years, although this was not significantly different from direct effects. Populations of directly targeted species were more stable in reserves than in fished areas, suggesting increased ecologic resilience. This is an important benefit of marine reserves with respect to their function as a tool for conservation and restoration.

Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential rates of change in direct and indirect effects.

PubMed

Babcock, R C; Shears, N T; Alcala, A C; Barrett, N S; Edgar, G J; Lafferty, K D; McClanahan, T R; Russ, G R

2010-10-26

Decadal-scale observations of marine reserves suggest that indirect effects on taxa that occur through cascading trophic interactions take longer to develop than direct effects on target species. Combining and analyzing a unique set of long-term time series of ecologic data in and out of fisheries closures from disparate regions, we found that the time to initial detection of direct effects on target species (±SE) was 5.13 ± 1.9 years, whereas initial detection of indirect effects on other taxa, which were often trait mediated, took significantly longer (13.1 ± 2.0 years). Most target species showed initial direct effects, but their trajectories over time were highly variable. Many target species continued to increase, some leveled off, and others decreased. Decreases were due to natural fluctuations, fishing impacts from outside reserves, or indirect effects from target species at higher trophic levels. The average duration of stable periods for direct effects was 6.2 ± 1.2 years, even in studies of more than 15 years. For indirect effects, stable periods averaged 9.1 ± 1.6 years, although this was not significantly different from direct effects. Populations of directly targeted species were more stable in reserves than in fished areas, suggesting increased ecologic resilience. This is an important benefit of marine reserves with respect to their function as a tool for conservation and restoration.

Finite-size effects and switching times for Moran process with mutation.

PubMed

DeVille, Lee; Galiardi, Meghan

2017-04-01

We consider the Moran process with two populations competing under an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma in the presence of mutation, and concentrate on the case where there are multiple evolutionarily stable strategies. We perform a complete bifurcation analysis of the deterministic system which arises in the infinite population size. We also study the Master equation and obtain asymptotics for the invariant distribution and metastable switching times for the stochastic process in the case of large but finite population. We also show that the stochastic system has asymmetries in the form of a skew for parameter values where the deterministic limit is symmetric.

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

[Results of a cytogenetic study of populations with different radiation risks in the Semipalatinsk region].

PubMed

Sviatova, G S; Abil'dinova, G Z; Berezina, G M

2002-03-01

A cytogenetic study was conducted for the first time on human populations neighboring the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site (STS) and exposed to ionizing radiation for a long period of time. In populations with the extreme and maximum radiation risks, high frequencies of radiation-induced chromosomal markers, including acentric fragments (1.99 +/- 0.10 per 100 cells), dicentrics (0.23 +/- 0.01), ring chromosomes (0.38 +/- 0.14), and stable chromosomal aberrations (1.17 +/- 0.02), were found. These frequencies significantly exceeded those in control populations. The spectrum of chromosomal aberrations and the frequencies of the aberrations of different types in persons living in the areas with the highest radionuclide contamination confirmed the mutagenic effect of radiation on chromosomes in the human populations studied.

Spiroplasma Symbiont of the Pea Aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum (Insecta: Homoptera)

PubMed Central

Fukatsu, Takema; Tsuchida, Tsutomu; Nikoh, Naruo; Koga, Ryuichi

2001-01-01

From a laboratory strain of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, we discovered a previously unknown facultative endosymbiotic bacterium. Molecular phylogenetic analysis based on 16S ribosomal DNA revealed that the bacterium is a member of the genus Spiroplasma. The Spiroplasma organism showed stable vertical transmission through successive generations of the host. Injection of hemolymph from infected insects into uninfected insects established a stable infection in the recipients. The Spiroplasma symbiont exhibited negative effects on growth, reproduction, and longevity of the host, particularly in older adults. Of 58 clonal strains of A. pisum established from natural populations in central Japan, 4 strains possessed the Spiroplasma organism. PMID:11229923

Increased natural reproduction and genetic diversity one generation after cessation of a steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) conservation hatchery program.

PubMed

Berejikian, Barry A; Van Doornik, Donald M

2018-01-01

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in productivity and abundance confound assessments of captive propagation programs aimed at recovery of Threatened and Endangered populations. We conducted a 17 year before-after-control-impact experiment to determine the effects of a captive rearing program for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on a key indicator of natural spawner abundance (naturally produced nests or 'redds'). The supplemented population exhibited a significant (2.6-fold) increase in redd abundance in the generation following supplementation. Four non-supplemented (control) populations monitored over the same 17 year period exhibited stable or decreasing trends in redd abundance. Expected heterozygosity in the supplemented population increased significantly. Allelic richness increased, but to a lesser (non-significant) degree. Estimates of the effective number of breeders increased from a harmonic mean of 24.4 in the generation before supplementation to 38.9 after supplementation. Several non-conventional aspects of the captive rearing program may have contributed to the positive response in the natural population.

Getting off on the Wrong Foot: Longitudinal Effects of Hispanic Students' Stability Attributions Following Poor Initial Test Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Cody B.; Yang, Yan

2012-01-01

Though studies have established that following poor performance, attributions to stable causes affect the performance of minority students, few studies have explored the impact of stability attributions over time. This study explored attributions following initial failure among a predominantly Hispanic student population. We measured students'…

Some effects of forest preservation

Treesearch

William B. Leak

1974-01-01

Long-term preservation (no cutting) of a deciduous forest stand in New Hampshire is leading toward stable populations of beech, sugar maple, striped maple, mountain maple, and hobblebush, coupled with a decline or complete disappearance of other woody species. The humus has stabilized at a depth no greater than that of cut stands. Nitrate discharge in the streams is...

Counterintuitive effects of large-scale predator removal on a midlatitude rodent community

Treesearch

John L Maron; Dean E. Pearson; Robert J. Fletcher

2010-01-01

Historically, small mammals have been focal organisms for studying predator-prey dynamics, principally because of interest in explaining the drivers of the cyclical dynamics exhibited by northern vole, lemming, and hare populations. However, many small-mammal species occur at relatively low and fairly stable densities at temperate latitudes, and our understanding of...

Population trends of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Jeffrey, John J.; Woodworth, Bethany L.

2010-01-01

The Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge was established to protect native Hawaiian forest birds, particularly endangered species. Management for forest restoration on the refuge has consisted mainly of removing feral ungulates, controlling invasive alien plants, and reforesting former pastures. To assess effects of this habitat improvement for forest birds, we estimated density annually by distance sampling and examined population trends for native and alien passerines over the 21 years since the refuge was established. We examined long-term trends and recent short-term trajectories in three study areas: (1) reforested pastureland, (2) heavily grazed open forest that was recovering, and (3) lightly grazed closed forest that was relatively intact. Three species of native birds and two species of alien birds had colonized the reforested pasture and were increasing. In the open forest, densities of all eight native species were either stable or increasing. Long-term trends for alien birds were also generally stable or increasing. Worryingly, however, during the most recent 9 years, in the open forest trajectories of native species were decreasing or inconclusive, but in the reforested pasture they generally increased. The closed forest was surveyed in only the most recent 9 years, and trajectories of native species there were mixed. Overall, long-term population trends in Hakalau are stable or increasing, contrasting with declines in most other areas of Hawai'i over the same period. However, more recent mixed results may indicate emergent problems for this important bird area.

Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species

PubMed Central

Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

2013-01-01

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.

PubMed

Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

2013-08-01

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

IsoBank – Stable isotope ecology in the age of ‘Big Data’

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stable isotopes ratios provide valuable information to fish biologists working in a diverse range of fields: e.g. ecologists, population biologists and fishery managers. Ecologists take advantage of stable isotope ratios to provide information on the diet and migration history of consumers or when a...

Robust Working Memory in an Asynchronously Spiking Neural Network Realized with Neuromorphic VLSI

PubMed Central

Giulioni, Massimiliano; Camilleri, Patrick; Mattia, Maurizio; Dante, Vittorio; Braun, Jochen; Del Giudice, Paolo

2011-01-01

We demonstrate bistable attractor dynamics in a spiking neural network implemented with neuromorphic VLSI hardware. The on-chip network consists of three interacting populations (two excitatory, one inhibitory) of leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons. One excitatory population is distinguished by strong synaptic self-excitation, which sustains meta-stable states of “high” and “low”-firing activity. Depending on the overall excitability, transitions to the “high” state may be evoked by external stimulation, or may occur spontaneously due to random activity fluctuations. In the former case, the “high” state retains a “working memory” of a stimulus until well after its release. In the latter case, “high” states remain stable for seconds, three orders of magnitude longer than the largest time-scale implemented in the circuitry. Evoked and spontaneous transitions form a continuum and may exhibit a wide range of latencies, depending on the strength of external stimulation and of recurrent synaptic excitation. In addition, we investigated “corrupted” “high” states comprising neurons of both excitatory populations. Within a “basin of attraction,” the network dynamics “corrects” such states and re-establishes the prototypical “high” state. We conclude that, with effective theoretical guidance, full-fledged attractor dynamics can be realized with comparatively small populations of neuromorphic hardware neurons. PMID:22347151

Melanoma incidence increase in the elderly of Catalonia with stabilization of incidence in the younger population: effect of prevention or consequence of immigration?

PubMed Central

Puig, Susana; Marcoval, Joaquim; Paradelo, Cristina; Azon, Antoni; Bartralot, Ramon; Bel, Susana; Bigata, Xavier; Boada, Aram; Campoy, Antoni; Carrera, Cristina; Curco, Neus; Dalmau, Joan; Ferrandiz, Carlos; Ferreres, Josep R.; Formigon, Manel; Gallardo, Fernando; Gonzalez, Alberto; Just, Miquel; Llistosella, Enric; Marti, Rosa M.; Nogues, M. Elena; Pedragosa, Ramon; Pujol, Josep A.; Roldán-Marín, Rodrigo; Sabat, Mireia; Salleras, Montserrat; Smandia, Juan A.; Zaballos, Pedro; Plana, Estel; Malvehy, Josep

2016-01-01

All cases of MM diagnosed in 23 Hospitals in Catalonia, from 2000 to 2007 were recorded and its incidence calculated and adjusted for the European standard population through the direct method. The age standardized rate varied from 6.74 in 2000 to 8.64 in 2007 for all melanomas and from 4.79 to 5.80 for invasive MMs, the Breslow thickness being stable during the period. The increase in invasive melanoma incidence in the elderly was remarkable, the crude rate increasing from 11.04 (2000) to 15.49 (2007) in the 60–64 yr population, while remaining more stable from 3.97 in 2000 to 4.55 in 2007 for the age range of 30–34 ys or with a tendency to decrease from 5.1 in 2000 to 2.5 in 2007 for age range of 25–29 yr, age ranges much more affected by immigration. Despite the large immigrant population (nearly one million immigrants that arrived in Catalonia during the study period from countries with a low melanoma incidence), melanoma incidence in our region has risen considerably and this trend will likely persist in the near future. PMID:25367888

A novel acenocoumarol pharmacogenomic dosing algorithm for the Greek population of EU-PACT trial.

PubMed

Ragia, Georgia; Kolovou, Vana; Kolovou, Genovefa; Konstantinides, Stavros; Maltezos, Efstratios; Tavridou, Anna; Tziakas, Dimitrios; Maitland-van der Zee, Anke H; Manolopoulos, Vangelis G

2017-01-01

To generate and validate a pharmacogenomic-guided (PG) dosing algorithm for acenocoumarol in the Greek population. To compare its performance with other PG algorithms developed for the Greek population. A total of 140 Greek patients participants of the EU-PACT trial for acenocoumarol, a randomized clinical trial that prospectively compared the effect of a PG dosing algorithm with a clinical dosing algorithm on the percentage of time within INR therapeutic range, who reached acenocoumarol stable dose were included in the study. CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes, age and weight affected acenocoumarol dose and predicted 53.9% of its variability. EU-PACT PG algorithm overestimated acenocoumarol dose across all different CYP2C9/VKORC1 functional phenotype bins (predicted dose vs stable dose in normal responders 2.31 vs 2.00 mg/day, p = 0.028, in sensitive responders 1.72 vs 1.50 mg/day, p = 0.003, in highly sensitive responders 1.39 vs 1.00 mg/day, p = 0.029). The PG algorithm previously developed for the Greek population overestimated the dose in normal responders (2.51 vs 2.00 mg/day, p < 0.001). Ethnic-specific dosing algorithm is suggested for better prediction of acenocoumarol dosage requirements in patients of Greek origin.

Robust Working Memory in an Asynchronously Spiking Neural Network Realized with Neuromorphic VLSI.

PubMed

Giulioni, Massimiliano; Camilleri, Patrick; Mattia, Maurizio; Dante, Vittorio; Braun, Jochen; Del Giudice, Paolo

2011-01-01

We demonstrate bistable attractor dynamics in a spiking neural network implemented with neuromorphic VLSI hardware. The on-chip network consists of three interacting populations (two excitatory, one inhibitory) of leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons. One excitatory population is distinguished by strong synaptic self-excitation, which sustains meta-stable states of "high" and "low"-firing activity. Depending on the overall excitability, transitions to the "high" state may be evoked by external stimulation, or may occur spontaneously due to random activity fluctuations. In the former case, the "high" state retains a "working memory" of a stimulus until well after its release. In the latter case, "high" states remain stable for seconds, three orders of magnitude longer than the largest time-scale implemented in the circuitry. Evoked and spontaneous transitions form a continuum and may exhibit a wide range of latencies, depending on the strength of external stimulation and of recurrent synaptic excitation. In addition, we investigated "corrupted" "high" states comprising neurons of both excitatory populations. Within a "basin of attraction," the network dynamics "corrects" such states and re-establishes the prototypical "high" state. We conclude that, with effective theoretical guidance, full-fledged attractor dynamics can be realized with comparatively small populations of neuromorphic hardware neurons.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Population characteristics and the influence of discharge on Bluehead Sucker and Flannelmouth Sucker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Breen, Matthew J.; Quist, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Rivers are among some of the most complex and important ecosystems in the world. Unfortunately, many fishes endemic to rivers have suffered declines in abundance and distribution suggesting that alterations to lotic environments have negatively influenced native fish populations. Of the 35 fishes native to the Colorado River basin (CRB), seven are considered either endangered, threatened, or species of special concern. As such, the conservation of fishes native to the CRB is a primary interest for natural resource management agencies. One of the major factors limiting the conservation and management of fishes endemic to the CRB is the lack of basic information on their ecology and population characteristics. We sought to describe the population dynamics and demographics of three populations of Bluehead Suckers (Catostomus discobolus) and Flannelmouth Suckers (C. latipinnis) in Utah. Additionally, we evaluated the potential influence of altered flow regimes on the recruitment and growth of Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers. Mortality of Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers from the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers was comparable to other populations. Growth of Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers was higher in the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers when compared to other populations in the CRB. Similarly, recruitment indices suggested that Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers in the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers had more stable recruitment than other populations in the CRB. Models relating growth and recruitment to hydrological indices provided little explanatory power. Notwithstanding, our results indicate that Bluehead Suckers and Flannelmouth Suckers in the Green, Strawberry, and White rivers represent fairly stable populations and provide baseline information that will be valuable for the effective management and conservation of the species.

Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

2002-01-01

We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

Origin, evolution, and population genetics of the selfish Segregation Distorter gene duplication in European and African populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Brand, Cara L; Larracuente, Amanda M; Presgraves, Daven C

2015-05-01

Meiotic drive elements are a special class of evolutionarily "selfish genes" that subvert Mendelian segregation to gain preferential transmission at the expense of homologous loci. Many drive elements appear to be maintained in populations as stable polymorphisms, their equilibrium frequencies determined by the balance between drive (increasing frequency) and selection (decreasing frequency). Here we show that a classic, seemingly balanced, drive system is instead characterized by frequent evolutionary turnover giving rise to dynamic, rather than stable, equilibrium frequencies. The autosomal Segregation Distorter (SD) system of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster is a selfish coadapted meiotic drive gene complex in which the major driver corresponds to a partial duplication of the gene Ran-GTPase activating protein (RanGAP). SD chromosomes segregate at similar, low frequencies of 1-5% in natural populations worldwide, consistent with a balanced polymorphism. Surprisingly, our population genetic analyses reveal evidence for parallel, independent selective sweeps of different SD chromosomes in populations on different continents. These findings suggest that, rather than persisting at a single stable equilibrium, SD chromosomes turn over frequently within populations. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Stabilization process of human population: a descriptive approach.

PubMed

Kayani, A K; Krotki, K J

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to inquire into the process of stabilization of a human population. The same age distribution distorted by past variations in fertility is subjected to several fixed schedules of fertility. The schedules are different from each other monotonically over a narrow range. The primary concern is with the process, almost year by year, through which the populations become stable. There is particular interest in the differential impact in the same original age distribution of the narrowly different fixed fertility schedules. The exercise is prepared in 3 stages: general background of the process of stabilization; methodology and data used; and analysis and discussion of the stabilization process. Among the several approaches through which the analysis of stable population is possible, 2 are popular: the integral equation and the projection matrix. In this presentation the interest is in evaluating the effects of fertility on the stabilization process of a population. Therefore, only 1 initial age distribution and only 1 life table but a variety of narrowly different schedules of fertility have been used. Specifically, the U.S. 1963 female population is treated as the initial population. The process of stabilization is viewed in the light of the changes in the slopes between 2 successive age groups of an age distribution. A high fertility schedule with the given initial age distribution and mortality level overcomes the oscillations more quickly than the low fertility schedule. Simulation confirms the intuitively expected positive relationship between the mean of the slope and the level of fertility. The variance of the slope distribution is an indicator of the aging of the distribution.

Patterns of range-wide genetic variation in six North American bumble bee (Apidae: Bombus) species.

PubMed

Lozier, Jeffrey D; Strange, James P; Stewart, Isaac J; Cameron, Sydney A

2011-12-01

The increasing evidence for population declines in bumble bee (Bombus) species worldwide has accelerated research efforts to explain losses in these important pollinators. In North America, a number of once widespread Bombus species have suffered serious reductions in range and abundance, although other species remain healthy. To examine whether declining and stable species exhibit different levels of genetic diversity or population fragmentation, we used microsatellite markers to genotype populations sampled across the geographic distributions of two declining (Bombus occidentalis and Bombus pensylvanicus) and four stable (Bombus bifarius; Bombus vosnesenskii; Bombus impatiens and Bombus bimaculatus) Bombus species. Populations of declining species generally have reduced levels of genetic diversity throughout their range compared to codistributed stable species. Genetic diversity can be affected by overall range size and degree of isolation of local populations, potentially confounding comparisons among species in some cases. We find no evidence for consistent differences in gene flow among stable and declining species, with all species exhibiting weak genetic differentiation over large distances (e.g. >1000 km). Populations on islands and at high elevations experience relatively strong genetic drift, suggesting that some conditions lead to genetic isolation in otherwise weakly differentiated species. B. occidentalis and B. bifarius exhibit stronger genetic differentiation than the other species, indicating greater phylogeographic structure consistent with their broader geographic distributions across topographically complex regions of western North America. Screening genetic diversity in North American Bombus should prove useful for identifying species that warrant monitoring, and developing management strategies that promote high levels of gene flow will be a key component in efforts to maintain healthy populations. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Genetic drift and collective dispersal can result in chaotic genetic patchiness.

PubMed

Broquet, Thomas; Viard, Frédérique; Yearsley, Jonathan M

2013-06-01

Chaotic genetic patchiness denotes unexpected patterns of genetic differentiation that are observed at a fine scale and are not stable in time. These patterns have been described in marine species with free-living larvae, but are unexpected because they occur at a scale below the dispersal range of pelagic larvae. At the scale where most larvae are immigrants, theory predicts spatially homogeneous, temporally stable genetic variation. Empirical studies have suggested that genetic drift interacts with complex dispersal patterns to create chaotic genetic patchiness. Here we use a co-ancestry model and individual-based simulations to test this idea. We found that chaotic genetic patterns (qualified by global FST and spatio-temporal variation in FST's between pairs of samples) arise from the combined effects of (1) genetic drift created by the small local effective population sizes of the sessile phase and variance in contribution among breeding groups and (2) collective dispersal of related individuals in the larval phase. Simulations show that patchiness levels qualitatively comparable to empirical results can be produced by a combination of strong variance in reproductive success and mild collective dispersal. These results call for empirical studies of the effective number of breeders producing larval cohorts, and population genetics at the larval stage. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution © 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

A probabilistic cellular automata model for the dynamics of a population driven by logistic growth and weak Allee effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendonça, J. R. G.

2018-04-01

We propose and investigate a one-parameter probabilistic mixture of one-dimensional elementary cellular automata under the guise of a model for the dynamics of a single-species unstructured population with nonoverlapping generations in which individuals have smaller probability of reproducing and surviving in a crowded neighbourhood but also suffer from isolation and dispersal. Remarkably, the first-order mean field approximation to the dynamics of the model yields a cubic map containing terms representing both logistic and weak Allee effects. The model has a single absorbing state devoid of individuals, but depending on the reproduction and survival probabilities can achieve a stable population. We determine the critical probability separating these two phases and find that the phase transition between them is in the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour.

The other-race effect in children from a multiracial population: A cross-cultural comparison.

PubMed

Tham, Diana Su Yun; Bremner, J Gavin; Hay, Dennis

2017-03-01

The role of experience with other-race faces in the development of the other-race effect was investigated through a cross-cultural comparison between 5- and 6-year-olds and 13- and 14-year-olds raised in a monoracial (British White, n=83) population and a multiracial (Malaysian Chinese, n=68) population. British White children showed an other-race effect to three other-race faces (Chinese, Malay, and African Black) that was stable across age. Malaysian Chinese children showed a recognition deficit for less experienced faces (African Black) but showed a recognition advantage for faces of which they have direct or indirect experience. Interestingly, younger (Malaysian Chinese) children showed no other-race effect for female faces such that they can recognize all female faces regardless of race. These findings point to the importance of early race and gender experiences in reorganizing the face representation to accommodate changes in experience across development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population structure of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.) (Diptera: Muscidae) assessed on a global scale using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.) (Diptera: Muscidae), is a major pest of livestock in the United States and worldwide. To assess the genetic variability in geographically distant stable flies, samples were obtained from four biogeographical regions: Nearctic, Neotropical, Palearctic, and Aus...

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species

PubMed Central

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949–1955 and 1975–1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline. PMID:26061732

A semigroup approach to the strong ergodic theorem of the multistate stable population process.

PubMed

Inaba, H

1988-01-01

"In this paper we first formulate the dynamics of multistate stable population processes as a partial differential equation. Next, we rewrite this equation as an abstract differential equation in a Banach space, and solve it by using the theory of strongly continuous semigroups of bounded linear operators. Subsequently, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of this semigroup to show the strong ergodic theorem which states that there exists a stable distribution independent of the initial distribution. Finally, we introduce the dual problem in order to obtain a logical definition for the reproductive value and we discuss its applications." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt

Genetic diversity and population history of the red panda (Ailurus fulgens) as inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequence variations.

PubMed

Su, B; Fu, Y; Wang, Y; Jin, L; Chakraborty, R

2001-06-01

The red panda (Ailurus fulgens) is one of the flagship species in worldwide conservation and is of special interest in evolutionary studies due to its taxonomic uniqueness. We sequenced a 236-bp fragment of the mitochondrial D-loop region in a sample of 53 red pandas from two populations in southwestern China. Seventeen polymorphic sites were found, together with a total of 25 haplotypes, indicating a high level of genetic diversity in the red panda. However, no obvious genetic divergence was detected between the Sichuan and Yunnan populations. The consensus phylogenetic tree of the 25 haplotypes was starlike. The pairwise mismatch distribution fitted into a pattern of populations undergoing expansion. Furthermore, Fu's F(S) test of neutrality was significant for the total population (F(S) = -7.573), which also suggests a recent population expansion. Interestingly, the effective population size in the Sichuan population was both larger and more stable than that in the Yunnan population, implying a southward expansion from Sichuan to Yunnan.

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980–2012

PubMed Central

FUSSELL, ELIZABETH; CURRAN, SARA R.; DUNBAR, MATTHEW D.; BABB, MICHAEL A.; THOMPSON, LUANNE; MEIJER-IRONS, JACQUELINE

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies. PMID:29326480

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Fussell, Elizabeth; Curran, Sara R; Dunbar, Matthew D; Babb, Michael A; Thompson, Luanne; Meijer-Irons, Jacqueline

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.

Combining stable insect cell lines with baculovirus-mediated expression for multi-HA influenza VLP production.

PubMed

Sequeira, Daniela P; Correia, Ricardo; Carrondo, Manuel J T; Roldão, António; Teixeira, Ana P; Alves, Paula M

2018-05-24

Safer and broadly protective vaccines are needed to cope with the continuous evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and promising approaches based on the expression of multiple hemagglutinins (HA) in a virus-like particle (VLP) have been proposed. However, expression of multiple genes in the same vector can lead to its instability due to tandem repetition of similar sequences. By combining stable with transient expression systems we can rationally distribute the number of genes to be expressed per platform and thus mitigate this risk. In this work, we developed a modular system comprising stable and baculovirus-mediated expression in insect cells for production of multi-HA influenza enveloped VLPs. First, a stable insect High Five cell population expressing two different HA proteins from subtype H3 was established. Infection of this cell population with a baculovirus vector encoding three other HA proteins from H3 subtype proved to be as competitive as traditional co-infection approaches in producing a pentavalent H3 VLP. Aiming at increasing HA expression, the stable insect cell population was infected at increasingly higher cell concentrations (CCI). However, cultures infected at CCI of 3×10 6 cells/mL showed lower HA titers per cell in comparison to standard CCI of 2×10 6 cells/mL, a phenomenon named "cell density effect". To lessen the negative impact of this phenomenon, a tailor-made refeed strategy was designed based on the exhaustion of key nutrients during cell growth. Noteworthy, cultures supplemented and infected at a CCI of 4×10 6 cells/mL showed comparable HA titers per cell to those of CCI of 2×10 6 cells/mL, thus leading to an increase of up to 4-fold in HA titers per mL. Scalability of the modular strategy herein proposed was successfully demonstrated in 2L stirred tank bioreactors with comparable HA protein levels observed between bioreactor and shake flasks cultures. Overall, this work demonstrates the suitability of combining stable with baculovirus-mediated expression in insect cells as an efficient platform for production of multi-HA influenza VLPs, surpassing the drawbacks of traditional co-infection strategies and/or the use of larger, unstable vectors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The greater snow goose Anser caerulescens atlanticus: Managing an overabundant population.

PubMed

Lefebvre, Josée; Gauthier, Gilles; Giroux, Jean-François; Reed, Austin; Reed, Eric T; Bélanger, Luc

2017-03-01

Between the early 1900s and the 1990s, the greater snow goose Anser caerulescens atlanticus population grew from 3000 individuals to more than 700 000. Because of concerns about Arctic degradation of natural habitats through overgrazing, a working group recommended the stabilization of the population. Declared overabundant in 1998, special management actions were then implemented in Canada and the United States. Meanwhile, a cost-benefit socioeconomic analysis was performed to set a target population size. Discussions aiming towards attaining a common vision were undertaken with stakeholders at multiple levels. The implemented measures have had varying success; but population size has been generally stable since 1999. To be effective and meet social acceptance, management actions must have a scientific basis, result from a consensus among stakeholders, and include an efficient monitoring programme. In this paper, historical changes in population size and management decisions along with past and current challenges encountered are discussed.

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems.

PubMed

Myhre, A M; Engen, S; SAEther, B-E

2017-08-01

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The Evolution of Phenotypic Switching in Subdivided Populations

PubMed Central

Carja, Oana; Liberman, Uri; Feldman, Marcus W.

2014-01-01

Stochastic switching is an example of phenotypic bet hedging, where offspring can express a phenotype different from that of their parents. Phenotypic switching is well documented in viruses, yeast, and bacteria and has been extensively studied when the selection pressures vary through time. However, there has been little work on the evolution of phenotypic switching under both spatially and temporally fluctuating selection pressures. Here we use a population genetic model to explore the interaction of temporal and spatial variation in determining the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic switching. We find that the stable switching rate is mainly determined by the rate of environmental change and the migration rate. This stable rate is also a decreasing function of the recombination rate, although this is a weaker effect than those of either the period of environmental change or the migration rate. This study highlights the interplay of spatial and temporal environmental variability, offering new insights into how migration can influence the evolution of phenotypic switching rates, mutation rates, or other sources of phenotypic variation. PMID:24496012

Random diffusion and cooperation in continuous two-dimensional space.

PubMed

Antonioni, Alberto; Tomassini, Marco; Buesser, Pierre

2014-03-07

This work presents a systematic study of population games of the Prisoner's Dilemma, Hawk-Dove, and Stag Hunt types in two-dimensional Euclidean space under two-person, one-shot game-theoretic interactions, and in the presence of agent random mobility. The goal is to investigate whether cooperation can evolve and be stable when agents can move randomly in continuous space. When the agents all have the same constant velocity cooperation may evolve if the agents update their strategies imitating the most successful neighbor. If a fitness difference proportional is used instead, cooperation does not improve with respect to the static random geometric graph case. When viscosity effects set-in and agent velocity becomes a quickly decreasing function of the number of neighbors they have, one observes the formation of monomorphic stable clusters of cooperators or defectors in the Prisoner's Dilemma. However, cooperation does not spread in the population as in the constant velocity case. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective Population Size, Genetic Variation, and Their Relevance for Conservation: The Bighorn Sheep in Tiburon Island and Comparisons with Managed Artiodactyls

PubMed Central

Gasca-Pineda, Jaime; Cassaigne, Ivonne; Alonso, Rogelio A.; Eguiarte, Luis E.

2013-01-01

The amount of genetic diversity in a finite biological population mostly depends on the interactions among evolutionary forces and the effective population size (N e) as well as the time since population establishment. Because the N e estimation helps to explore population demographic history, and allows one to predict the behavior of genetic diversity through time, N e is a key parameter for the genetic management of small and isolated populations. Here, we explored an N e-based approach using a bighorn sheep population on Tiburon Island, Mexico (TI) as a model. We estimated the current (N crnt) and ancestral stable (N stbl) inbreeding effective population sizes as well as summary statistics to assess genetic diversity and the demographic scenarios that could explain such diversity. Then, we evaluated the feasibility of using TI as a source population for reintroduction programs. We also included data from other bighorn sheep and artiodactyl populations in the analysis to compare their inbreeding effective size estimates. The TI population showed high levels of genetic diversity with respect to other managed populations. However, our analysis suggested that TI has been under a genetic bottleneck, indicating that using individuals from this population as the only source for reintroduction could lead to a severe genetic diversity reduction. Analyses of the published data did not show a strict correlation between H E and N crnt estimates. Moreover, we detected that ancient anthropogenic and climatic pressures affected all studied populations. We conclude that the estimation of N crnt and N stbl are informative genetic diversity estimators and should be used in addition to summary statistics for conservation and population management planning. PMID:24147115

Reproductive adaptation in Drosophila exposed to oxygen-enriched atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kloek, G.; Winkle, L.

1979-01-01

Ten successive generations of a Drosophila melanogaster population were exposed to an atmospheric mix of 50% oxygen/50% nitrogen at standard pressure. This atmospheric mix has been shown to be toxic to this species and causes significantly shortened life span. By the fifth generation, survivorship and life span for the first 25-30 days were identical to control populations and total life span was shorter by only a few days. Egg-laying rates were stable in the experimental populations but below those of the controls. Hatching success was identical between experimental and control populations. Even though the egg-laying rates were lower in 50% oxygen, it was concluded that the population had adapted and could maintain a stable population in these conditions. The near-normal life spans, normal hatching rates, and overall population stability, exhibited following five generations of adaptation, were considered sufficient to allow continued reproduction in spite of a reduced egg-laying rate.

Reproductive adaptation in Drosophila exposed to oxygen-enriched atmospheres.

PubMed

Kloek, G; Winkle, L

1979-04-01

Ten successive generations of a Drosophila melanogaster population were exposed to an atmospheric mix of 50% oxygen/50% nitrogen at standard pressure. This atmospheric mix has been shown to be toxic to this species and causes significantly shortened life span. By the fifth generation, survivorship and life span for the first 25-30 days were identical to control populations and total life span was shorter by only a few days. Egg-laying rates were stable in the experimental populations but below those of the controls. Hatching success was identical between experimental and control populations. Even though the egg-laying rates were lower in 50% oxygen, it was concluded that the population had adapted and could maintain a stable population in these conditions. The near-normal life spans, normal hatching rates, and overall population stability, exhibited following five generations of adaptation, were considered sufficient to allow continued reproduction in spite of a reduced egg-laying rate.

The effect of polyandry on a distorter system with differential viabilities in the sexes.

PubMed

Manser, Andri; Lindholm, Anna K; König, Barbara; Bagheri, Homayoun C

2012-11-01

The presence of selfish genetic elements can have fatal consequences for populations that harbor them. In the well known t haplotype in wild house mice, large proportions of the population die from t/t recessive lethal effects. Due to strong advantages at the gamete level (drive), t haplotypes nevertheless occur at substantial frequencies. The stable presence of a lethal is not the only effect of the t. It also distorts the fate of mutations that differentially affect male and female survival and reproduction (such as in sexual conflict), by giving male selective effects a strong advantage over female selective effects. In a recent study, we proposed polyandry as a potential counterstrategy against t deleterious effects. Here, we show that (1) the efficiency of polyandry in reducing the t frequency strongly depends on the selective context and (2) polyandry helps to reduce male-biased leverage in sex dependent selection.

Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, D.S.; Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Bartelt, P.E.; Corn, P.S.; Hossack, B.R.; Lambert, B.A.; Mccaffery, R.; Gaughan, C.

2010-01-01

Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations. Journal compilation. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Impact of floating population on the epidemic of tuberculosis: a spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Zhongwei; He, Xiaoxin; Zhao, Wenjuan; An, Yansheng; Cao, Wuchun; Li, Xiaowen

2007-06-01

According to the report issued by the Health Bureau of Beijing that the number of newly registered active pulmonary tuberculosis cases in floating population exceeded half of that in registered permanent residence in 2006. More attention has been paid to the tuberculosis of floating population. Materials and methods: The population data included in the studied was reported by the Beijing Police Bureau in 2004, and the case source from 2004 to 2006 was provided by Beijing Research Institute for TB Control. Two GIS-based methods have been used to detect the hot spots of tuberculosis in 18 districts of Beijing. Results: The distributions of hot spots of tuberculosis in Beijing are significantly associated with that of floating people. Most likely cluster from all population matches with those from floating population, which is stable from 2004 to 2006. Conclusion: The spatial analytical results indicated that the floating population has a drastic influence on the epidemic of tuberculosis in Beijing. The tuberculosis control measures should incorporate the effect of floating population.

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crone, E.E.

1995-11-08

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{submore » t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.« less

Timing and causes of mid-Holocene mammoth extinction on St. Paul Island, Alaska

PubMed Central

Graham, Russell W.; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Choy, Kyungcheol; Culleton, Brendan J.; Davies, Lauren J.; Hritz, Carrie; Kapp, Joshua D.; Newsom, Lee A.; Rawcliffe, Ruth; Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie; Wang, Yue; Williams, John W.; Wooller, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

Relict woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) populations survived on several small Beringian islands for thousands of years after mainland populations went extinct. Here we present multiproxy paleoenvironmental records to investigate the timing, causes, and consequences of mammoth disappearance from St. Paul Island, Alaska. Five independent indicators of extinction show that mammoths survived on St. Paul until 5,600 ± 100 y ago. Vegetation composition remained stable during the extinction window, and there is no evidence of human presence on the island before 1787 CE, suggesting that these factors were not extinction drivers. Instead, the extinction coincided with declining freshwater resources and drier climates between 7,850 and 5,600 y ago, as inferred from sedimentary magnetic susceptibility, oxygen isotopes, and diatom and cladoceran assemblages in a sediment core from a freshwater lake on the island, and stable nitrogen isotopes from mammoth remains. Contrary to other extinction models for the St. Paul mammoth population, this evidence indicates that this mammoth population died out because of the synergistic effects of shrinking island area and freshwater scarcity caused by rising sea levels and regional climate change. Degradation of water quality by intensified mammoth activity around the lake likely exacerbated the situation. The St. Paul mammoth demise is now one of the best-dated prehistoric extinctions, highlighting freshwater limitation as an overlooked extinction driver and underscoring the vulnerability of small island populations to environmental change, even in the absence of human influence. PMID:27482085

Extreme Genetic Structure in a Small-Bodied Freshwater Fish, the Purple Spotted Gudgeon, Mogurnda adspersa (Eleotridae)

PubMed Central

Hughes, Jane M.; Real, Kathryn M.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Schmidt, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

Freshwater fish are a group that is especially susceptible to biodiversity loss as they often exist naturally in small, fragmented populations that are vulnerable to habitat degradation, pollution and introduction of exotic species. Relatively little is known about spatial dynamics of unperturbed populations of small-bodied freshwater fish species. This study examined population genetic structure of the purple spotted gudgeon (Mogurnda adspersa, Eleotridae), a small-bodied freshwater fish that is widely distributed in eastern Australia. The species is threatened in parts of its range but is common in coastal streams of central Queensland where this study took place. Microsatellite (msat) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation was assessed for nine sites from four stream sections in two drainage basins. Very high levels of among population structure were observed (msat F ST = 0.18; mtDNA ΦST = 0.85) and evidence for contemporary migration among populations was rare and limited to sites within the same section of stream. Hierarchical structuring of variation was best explained by stream section rather than by drainage basin. Estimates of contemporary effective population size for each site was low (range 28 – 63, Sibship method), but compared favorably with similar estimates for other freshwater fish species, and there was no genetic evidence for inbreeding or recent population bottlenecks. In conclusion, within a stable part of its range, M adspersa exists as a series of small, demographically stable populations that are highly isolated from one another. Complimentary patterns in microsatellites and mtDNA indicate this structuring is the result of long-term processes that have developed over a remarkably small spatial scale. High population structure and limited dispersal mean that recolonisation of locally extinct populations is only likely to occur from closely situated populations within stream sections. Limited potential for recolonisation should be considered as an important factor in conservation and management of this species. PMID:22808190

Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

PubMed

Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

2014-12-01

Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from the entire Qatari population. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From the Western Alps across Central Europe: Postglacial recolonisation of the tufa stream specialist Rhyacophila pubescens (Insecta, Trichoptera)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Dispersal rates, i.e. the effective number of dispersing individuals per unit time, are the product of dispersal capacity, i.e. a species physiological potential for dispersal, dispersal behaviour, i.e. the decision to leave a habitat patch in favour of another, and connectivity of occupied habitat. Thus, dispersal of species that are highly specialised to a certain habitat is limited by habitat availability. Species inhabiting very stable environments may also adopt a sedentary life-style. Both factors should lead to strong genetic differentiation in highly specialised species inhabiting stable environments. These two factors apply to our model species Rhyacophila pubescens a highly specialised freshwater insect that occurs in tufa springs, a very stable habitat. Results We examined the genetic population structure and phylogeography using range-wide mtCOI sequence and AFLP data from 333 individuals of R. pubescens. We inferred the location of Pleistocene refugia and postglacial colonisation routes of R. pubescens, and examined ongoing local differentiation. Our results indicate intraregional differentiation with a high number of locally endemic haplotypes, that we attributed to habitat specificity and low dispersal rates of R. pubescens. We observed high levels of genetic diversity south of the Alps and genetic impoverishment north of the Alps. Estimates of migrants placed the refugium and the source of the colonisation in the Dauphiné Alps (SW Alps). Conclusions This is the first example of an aquatic insect with a colonisation route along the western margin of the Alps to the Central European highlands. The study also shows that specialisation to a stable environment may have promoted a behavioural shift to decreased dispersal rates, leading to stronger local population differentiation than in less specialised aquatic insects. Alternatively, the occurrence of highly specialised tufa spring habitats may have been more widespread in the past, leading to range regression and fragmentation among present day R. pubescens populations. PMID:21569621

Clustering Effect on the Dynamics in a Spatial Rock-Paper-Scissors System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi; Sato, Kazunori; Ichinose, Genki; Miyazaki, Rinko; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2018-01-01

The lattice dynamics for rock-paper-scissors games is related to population theories in ecology. In most cases, simulations are performed by local and global interactions. It is known in the former case that the dynamics is usually stable. We find two types of non-random distributions in the stationary state. One is a cluster formation of endangered species: when the density of a species approaches zero, its clumping degree diverges to infinity. The other is the strong aggregations of high-density species. Such spatial pattern formations play important roles in population dynamics.

Toxic compounds and health and reproductive effects in St. Lawrence Beluga Whales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beland, P.; Michaud, R.; DeGuise, S.

1993-01-01

An epidemiologic study was carried out over a period of 9 years on an isolated population of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) residing in the St. Lawrence estuary (Quebec, Canada). More than 100 individual deaths were aged, and/or autopsied and analyzed for toxic compounds, and the population was surveyed for size and structure. Arctic belugas and other species of whales and seals from the St. Lawrence were used for comparison. Population dynamics: Population size appeared to be stable and modeling showed this stable pattern to result from low calf production and/or low survival to adulthood. Toxicology: St. Lawrence belugas had highermore » or much higher levels of mercury, lead, PCBs, DDT, Mirex, benzo[a]pyrene metabolites, equivalent levels of dioxins, furans, and PAH metabolites, and much lower levels of cadmium than Arctic belugas. In other St. Lawrence cetaceans, levels of PCBs and DDT were inversely related to body size, as resulting from differences in metabolic rate, diet, and trophic position, compounded by length of residence in the St. Lawrence basin. St. Lawrence belugas had much higher levels than predicted from body size alone; levels increased with age in both sexes, although unloading by females through the placenta and/or lactation was evidenced by overall lower levels in females and very high burdens in some calves. 45 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Population momentum: A wider definition.

PubMed

Potter, R G; Wolowyna, O; Kulkarni, P M

1977-11-01

Summary Keyfitz has derived an elegant formula for estimating the ultimate size of an initially stable, growing population that abruptly reduces its fertility to replacement level. Reduction of fertility is achieved by the rather unrealistic device of dividing the original age schedule nffertility rates by the net reproduction rate. Only the inertia of the age distribution is thus accounted for, but not that of the fertility schedule. The key idea of an abrupt imposition of a fixed regimen capable in the long run of generating zero population growth may be retained, but the regimen made more realistic. By elaborating the population setting, such disparate ZPG regimens as reduction of marital fertility by contraception, delayed and/or less universal marriage, raised mortality risks, or permanent net out-migration may be formulated. Convergence of the populaton to stationarity becomes a two-phase process: a primary adjustment period of changing fertility rates followed by a period of age adjustment. The present paper treats what happens when a fixed ZPG sterilization regimen, defined by a minimum age of sterilization γ and constant continuous risk φ of sterilization among unsterilized wives aged γ to β, is imposed abruptly (or else progressively over an interval T) upon an initially stable, growing population. Additional sources of residual growth are: (1) the nine-month lag in sterilization effect owing to pregnancy: (2) the more youthful pattern of child-bearing under sterilization: (3) the extra adjustment period (of length β-γ-0.75) of changing fertility rates; and (4) any delays in exposing elements of the population to the sterilization regimen. Two questions are pursued. First, how important are the additional sources of residual growth? Secondly, how do their relative sizes vary as a function of the characteristics of the initial population?

Stable Isotope Ratios as Biomarkers of Diet for Health Research

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Diane M.

2016-01-01

Diet is a leading modifiable risk factor for chronic disease, but it remains difficult to measure accurately due to the error and bias inherent in self-reported methods of diet assessment. Consequently there is a pressing need for more objective biomarkers of diet for use in health research. The stable isotope ratios of light elements are a promising set of candidate biomarkers because they vary naturally and reproducibly among foods, and those variations are captured in molecules and tissues with high fidelity. Recent studies have identified valid isotopic measures of short and long-term sugar intake, meat intake, and fish intake in specific populations. These studies provide a strong foundation for validating stable isotopic biomarkers in the general United States population. Approaches to improve specificity for specific foods are needed, for example, by modeling intake using multiple stable isotope ratios, or by isolating and measuring specific molecules linked to foods of interest. PMID:26048703

Accommodating Adolescent Sleep-Wake Patterns: The Effects of Shifting the Timing of Sleep on Training Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

subjective mood ratings relative to a control group with stable sleep. Interestingly, Selvi and colleagues50 showed that phase preference modified...by Selvi and colleagues was observed, at least for the subsample of the study population who had actigraphy data. Several hypotheses are suggested to...performance in young and old men. J Gerontol 1992;47:221-7. 50. Selvi Y, Gulec M, Agargun MY, Besiroglu L. Mood changes after sleep deprivation in

Linking Specific Heterotrophic Bacterial Populations to Bioreduction of Uranium and Nitrate in Contaminated Subsurface Sediments by Using Stable Isotope Probing▿†

PubMed Central

Akob, Denise M.; Kerkhof, Lee; Küsel, Kirsten; Watson, David B.; Palumbo, Anthony V.; Kostka, Joel E.

2011-01-01

Shifts in terminal electron-accepting processes during biostimulation of uranium-contaminated sediments were linked to the composition of stimulated microbial populations using DNA-based stable isotope probing. Nitrate reduction preceded U(VI) and Fe(III) reduction in [13C]ethanol-amended microcosms. The predominant, active denitrifying microbial groups were identified as members of the Betaproteobacteria, whereas Actinobacteria dominated under metal-reducing conditions. PMID:21948831

Social and Demographic Effects of Anthropogenic Mortality: A Test of the Compensatory Mortality Hypothesis in the Red Wolf

PubMed Central

Sparkman, Amanda M.; Waits, Lisette P.; Murray, Dennis L.

2011-01-01

Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation. PMID:21738589

Stable isotope ratios and reforestation potential in Acacia koa populations on Hawai'i

Treesearch

Shaneka Lawson; Carrie Pike

2017-01-01

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes can be influenced by a multitude of factors including elevation, precipitation rate, season, and temperature. This work examined variability in foliar stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope ratios of koa (Acacia koa) across 17 sites on Hawai'i Island, delineated by elevation and precipitation...

[The Regional Risk Factors of Mortality Of Adult Population Because Of Leading Non-Infectious Diseases].

PubMed

Khamitova, R Ya; Sabirzianova, A R; Ziatdinov, V B

2017-07-01

The analysis of data of 2000--2014 established a significant decreasing of total mortality of population of the Republic of Tatarstan. however, this occurrence concerns in a greater degree individuals of retirement age than able-bodied population. The percentage of mortality in connection with diseases of blood circulation diseases, diseases of respiratory system and neoplasms decreased in total mortality and elder age category but remained stable or even increased in population of able-bodied age. The anthropogenic load on objects of environment significantly effects mortality of population of able-bodied age (with wider spectrum of significant parameters) and elder age in the above listed classes of diseases. The values of generalized dispersion explain 95--98% of dispersion of intial indices of chemical pollution of the territory positively and/or negatively correlating with coefficients of mortality in main non-infectious diseases.

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay.

PubMed

Akimenko, Vitalii; Anguelov, Roumen

2017-12-01

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Exhaustive rotamer search of the 4C1 conformation of α- and β-d-galactopyranose.

PubMed

Del Vigo, Enrique A; Marino, Carla; Stortz, Carlos A

2017-08-07

An exhaustive search approach was used to establish all possible rotamers of α- and β-d-galactopyranose using DFT at the B3LYP/6-311+G** and M06-2X/6-311+G** levels, both in vacuum calculations, and including two variants of continuum solvent models as PCM and SMD to simulate water solutions. Free energies were also calculated. MM3 was used as the starting point for calculations, using a dielectric constant of 1.5 for vacuum modeling, and 80 for water solution modeling. For the vacuum calculations, out of the theoretically possible 729 rotamers, only about a hundred rendered stable minima, highly stabilized by hydrogen bonding and scattered in a ca. 14 kcal/mol span. The rotamer with a clockwise arrangement of hydrogen bonds was the most stable for the α-anomer, whereas that with a counterclockwise arrangement was the most stable for the β-anomer. Free energy calculations, and especially solvent modeling, tend to flatten the potential energy surface. With PCM, the total range of energies was reduced to 9-10 kcal/mol (α-anomer) or 7-8 kcal/mol (β-anomer). These figures fall to 4.5-6 kcal/mol using SMD. At the same time, the total number of possible rotamers increases dramatically to about 300 with PCM, and to 400 with SMD. Both models show a divergent behavior: PCM tends to underestimate the effect of solvent, thus rendering as the most stable many common rotamers with vacuum calculations, and giving underestimations of populations of β-anomers and gt rotamers in the equilibrium. On the other hand, SMD gives a better estimation of the solvent effect, yielding correct populations of gt rotamers, but more β-anomers than expected by the experimental values. The best agreement is observed when the functional M06-2X is combined with SMD. Both DFT models show minimal geometrical differences between the optimized conformers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Triple-Isotope Approach to Predict the Breeding Origins of European Bats

PubMed Central

Popa-Lisseanu, Ana G.; Sörgel, Karin; Luckner, Anja; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Ibáñez, Carlos; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Ciechanowski, Mateusz; Görföl, Tamás; Niermann, Ivo; Beuneux, Grégory; Mysłajek, Robert W.; Juste, Javier; Fonderflick, Jocelyn; Kelm, Detlev H.; Voigt, Christian C.

2012-01-01

Despite a commitment by the European Union to protect its migratory bat populations, conservation efforts are hindered by a poor understanding of bat migratory strategies and connectivity between breeding and wintering grounds. Traditional methods like mark-recapture are ineffective to study broad-scale bat migratory patterns. Stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) have been proven useful in establishing spatial migratory connectivity of animal populations. Before applying this tool, the method was calibrated using bat samples of known origin. Here we established the potential of δD as a robust geographical tracer of breeding origins of European bats by measuring δD in hair of five sedentary bat species from 45 locations throughout Europe. The δD of bat hair strongly correlated with well-established spatial isotopic patterns in mean annual precipitation in Europe, and therefore was highly correlated with latitude. We calculated a linear mixed-effects model, with species as random effect, linking δD of bat hair to precipitation δD of the areas of hair growth. This model can be used to predict breeding origins of European migrating bats. We used δ13C and δ15N to discriminate among potential origins of bats, and found that these isotopes can be used as variables to further refine origin predictions. A triple-isotope approach could thereby pinpoint populations or subpopulations that have distinct origins. Our results further corroborated stable isotope analysis as a powerful method to delineate animal migrations in Europe. PMID:22291947

The utilization of a Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus nerka subsidy by three populations of charr Salvelinus spp.

PubMed

Denton, K P; Rich, H B; Moore, J W; Quinn, T P

2010-09-01

The L(F) -at-age trajectories differentiated two populations of Dolly Varden charr Salvelinus malma and a population of Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus from the eastern end of Iliamna Lake, Alaska. Salvelinus malma from the Pedro Bay ponds were the smallest for a given age, followed by Salvelinus alpinus from the lake, and S. malma from the Iliamna River were much larger. The utilization of a large sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka subsidy by the three Salvelinus spp. populations was then investigated by comparing diet data and mixing model (MixSIR) outputs based on carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes. Stomach contents indicated that both S. malma populations fed on O. nerka products, especially eggs and larval Diptera that had scavenged O. nerka carcasses, whereas S. alpinus fed on a variety of prey items such as three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus and snails. Stable-isotope analysis corroborated the diet data; the two S. malma populations incorporated more O. nerka-derived nutrients into their tissues than did S. alpinus from the lake, although all populations showed substantial utilization of O. nerka-derived resources. Salvelinus alpinus also seemed to be much more omnivorous, as shown by stable-isotope mixing models, than the S. malma populations. The dramatic differences in growth rate between the two S. malma populations, despite similar trophic patterns, indicate that other important genetic or environmental factors affect their life history, including proximate temperature controls and ultimate predation pressures. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Decadal stability in genetic variation and structure in the intertidal seaweed Fucus serratus (Heterokontophyta: Fucaceae).

PubMed

Jueterbock, Alexander; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

2018-06-15

The spatial distribution of genetic diversity and structure has important implications for conservation as it reveals a species' strong and weak points with regard to stability and evolutionary capacity. Temporal genetic stability is rarely tested in marine species other than commercially important fishes, but is crucial for the utility of temporal snapshots in conservation management. High and stable diversity can help to mitigate the predicted northward range shift of seaweeds under the impact of climate change. Given the key ecological role of fucoid seaweeds along rocky shores, the positive effect of genetic diversity may reach beyond the species level to stabilize the entire intertidal ecosystem along the temperate North Atlantic. In this study, we estimated the effective population size, as well as temporal changes in genetic structure and diversity of the seaweed F. serratus using 22 microsatellite markers. Samples were taken across latitudes and a range of temperature regimes at seven locations with decadal sampling (2000 and 2010). Across latitudes, genetic structure and diversity remained stable over 5-10 generations. Stable small-scale structure enhanced regional diversity throughout the species' range. In accordance with its biogeographic history, effective population size and diversity peaked in the species' mid-range in Brittany (France), and declined towards its leading and trailing edge to the north and south. At the species' southern edge, multi-locus-heterozygosity displayed a strong decline from 1999 to 2010. Temporally stable genetic structure over small spatial scales is a potential driver for local adaptation and species radiation in the genus Fucus. Survival and adaptation of the low-diversity leading edge of F. serratus may be enhanced by regional gene flow and 'surfing' of favorable mutations or impaired by the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Our results have clear implications for the conservation of F. serratus at its genetically unique southern edge in Northwest Iberia, where increasing temperatures are likely the major cause for the decline not only of F. serratus, but also other intertidal and subtidal macroalgae. We expect that F. serratus will disappear from Northwest Iberia by 2100 if genetic rescue is not induced by the influx of genetic variation from Brittany.

Antiretroviral Therapy to Prevent HIV Acquisition in Serodiscordant Couples in a Hyperendemic Community in Rural South Africa.

PubMed

Oldenburg, Catherine E; Bärnighausen, Till; Tanser, Frank; Iwuji, Collins C; De Gruttola, Victor; Seage, George R; Mimiaga, Matthew J; Mayer, Kenneth H; Pillay, Deenan; Harling, Guy

2016-08-15

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was highly efficacious in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in stable serodiscordant couples in the HPTN-052 study, a resource-intensive randomized controlled trial with near-perfect ART adherence and mutual HIV status disclosure among all participating couples. However, minimal evidence exists of the effectiveness of ART in preventing HIV acquisition in stable serodiscordant couples in "real-life" population-based settings in hyperendemic communities of sub-Saharan Africa, where health systems are typically resource-poor and overburdened, adherence to ART is often low, and partners commonly do not disclose their HIV status to each other. Data arose from a population-based open cohort in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 17 016 HIV-uninfected individuals present between January 2005 and December 2013 were included. Interval-censored time-updated proportional hazards regression was used to assess how the ART status affected HIV transmission risk in stable serodiscordant relationships. We observed 1619 HIV seroconversions in 17 016 individuals, over 60 349 person-years follow-up time. During the follow-up period, 1846 individuals had an HIV-uninfected and 196 had an HIV-infected stable partner HIV incidence was 3.8/100 person-years (PY) among individuals with an HIV-infected partner (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-5.6), 1.4/100 PY (.4-3.5) among those with HIV-infected partners receiving ART, and 5.6/100 PY (3.5-8.4) among those with HIV-infected partners not receiving ART. Use of ART was associated with a 77% decrease in HIV acquisition risk among serodiscordant couples (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI, .07-.80). ART initiation was associated with a very large reduction in HIV acquisition in serodiscordant couples in rural KwaZulu-Natal. However, this "real-life" effect was substantially lower than the effect observed in the HPTN-052 trial. To eliminate HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples, additional prevention interventions are probably needed. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Approximating basins of attraction for dynamical systems via stable radial bases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cavoretto, R.; De Rossi, A.; Perracchione, E.

2016-06-08

In applied sciences it is often required to model and supervise temporal evolution of populations via dynamical systems. In this paper, we focus on the problem of approximating the basins of attraction of such models for each stable equilibrium point. We propose to reconstruct the basins via an implicit interpolant using stable radial bases, obtaining the surfaces by partitioning the phase space into disjoint regions. An application to a competition model presenting jointly three stable equilibria is considered.

Female reproductive success in a species with an age-inversed hierarchy.

PubMed

DE Vries, Dorien; Koenig, Andreas; Borries, Carola

2016-11-01

In most group-living mammals, reproductive success declines with increasing age and increases with increasing rank. Such effects have mainly been studied in matrilineal and in "age positive" hierarchies, which are stable and in which high ranking females often outperform low ranking ones. These relationships are less well-understood in age-inversed dominance hierarchies, in which a female's rank changes over time. We analyzed demographic data of 2 wild, unprovisioned groups of gray langurs (Semnopithecus schistaceus) near Ramnagar, Nepal covering periods of 5 years each. Female rank was unstable and age-inversed. We measured reproductive success via birth rates (57 births), infant survival (proportion of infants surviving to 2 years) and number of offspring surviving to 2 years of age (successful births) for 3 age and 3 rank classes. We found that old females performed significantly worse than expected (birth rate P = 0.04; successful births P = 0.03). The same was true for low ranking females (P = 0.04, and P < 0.01, respectively). Infant survival was highest for young and middle-aged as well as for high and middle ranking females. Overall, the results for these unstable hierarchies were rather similar to those for stable hierarchies of other mammals, particularly several nonhuman primates. Compared to a provisioned population of a closely related species, the wild and unprovisioned population examined (i) showed stronger age effects, while (ii) female reproductive success was equally affected by rank. Future comparative studies are needed to examine whether captive or provisioned populations deviate predictably from wild populations. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Tracing water sources of terrestrial animal populations with stable isotopes: laboratory tests with crickets and spiders.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Sabo, John L

2010-12-31

Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the "water web"). Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change.

The Cumberland Ankle Instability Tool (CAIT) in the Dutch population with and without complaints of ankle instability.

PubMed

Vuurberg, Gwendolyn; Kluit, Lana; van Dijk, C Niek

2018-03-01

To develop a translated Dutch version of the Cumberland Ankle Instability Tool (CAIT) and test its psychometric properties in a Dutch population with foot and ankle complaints. The CAIT was translated into the Dutch language using a forward-backward translation design. Of the 130 subsequent patients visiting the outpatient clinic for foot and ankle complaints who were asked to fill out a questionnaire containing the CAIT, the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS), and the numeric rating scale (NRS) pain, 98 completed the questionnaire. After a 1-week period, patients were asked to fill out a second questionnaire online containing the CAIT and NRS pain. This second questionnaire was completed by 70 patients. With these data, the construct validity, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, measurement error, and ceiling and floor effects were assessed. Additionally, a cut-off value to discriminate between stable and unstable ankles, in patients with ankle complaints, was calculated. Construct validity showed moderate correlations between the CAIT and FAOS subscales (Spearman's correlation coefficient (SCC) = 0.36-0.43), and the NRS pain (SCC = -0.55). The cut-off value was found at 11.5 points of the total CAIT score (range 0-30). Test-retest reliability showed to be excellent with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94. Internal consistency was high (Cronbach's α = 0.86). No ceiling or floor effects were detected. Based on the results, the Dutch version of the CAIT is a valid and reliable questionnaire to assess ankle instability in the Dutch population and is able to differentiate between a functionally unstable and stable ankle. The tool is the first suitable tool to objectify the severity of ankle instability specific complaints and assess change in the Dutch population. Level of evidence II.

Stable and Dynamic Coding for Working Memory in Primate Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Kei; Funahashi, Shintaro; Stokes, Mark G.

2017-01-01

Working memory (WM) provides the stability necessary for high-level cognition. Influential theories typically assume that WM depends on the persistence of stable neural representations, yet increasing evidence suggests that neural states are highly dynamic. Here we apply multivariate pattern analysis to explore the population dynamics in primate lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) during three variants of the classic memory-guided saccade task (recorded in four animals). We observed the hallmark of dynamic population coding across key phases of a working memory task: sensory processing, memory encoding, and response execution. Throughout both these dynamic epochs and the memory delay period, however, the neural representational geometry remained stable. We identified two characteristics that jointly explain these dynamics: (1) time-varying changes in the subpopulation of neurons coding for task variables (i.e., dynamic subpopulations); and (2) time-varying selectivity within neurons (i.e., dynamic selectivity). These results indicate that even in a very simple memory-guided saccade task, PFC neurons display complex dynamics to support stable representations for WM. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Flexible, intelligent behavior requires the maintenance and manipulation of incoming information over various time spans. For short time spans, this faculty is labeled “working memory” (WM). Dominant models propose that WM is maintained by stable, persistent patterns of neural activity in prefrontal cortex (PFC). However, recent evidence suggests that neural activity in PFC is dynamic, even while the contents of WM remain stably represented. Here, we explored the neural dynamics in PFC during a memory-guided saccade task. We found evidence for dynamic population coding in various task epochs, despite striking stability in the neural representational geometry of WM. Furthermore, we identified two distinct cellular mechanisms that contribute to dynamic population coding. PMID:28559375

77 FR 17498 - Recovery Plan for the Endangered Spigelia gentianoides (Gentian Pinkroot)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-26

... status when: Extant populations and newly discovered sites are identified and mapped; Inventories have... management protocols on selected populations are established for 15 years to track threats to the species and its habitat; Extant populations located on public land are stable; The minimum viable population (MVP...

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

PubMed

Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Uribe-Rivera, David E; Costas, Francisco; Cunningham, Andrew A; Soto-Azat, Claudio

2017-09-27

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii - Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality. © 2017 The Author(s).

Population diversity in Pacific herring of the Puget Sound, USA.

PubMed

Siple, Margaret C; Francis, Tessa B

2016-01-01

Demographic, functional, or habitat diversity can confer stability on populations via portfolio effects (PEs) that integrate across multiple ecological responses and buffer against environmental impacts. The prevalence of these PEs in aquatic organisms is as yet unknown, and can be difficult to quantify; however, understanding mechanisms that stabilize populations in the face of environmental change is a key concern in ecology. Here, we examine PEs in Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in Puget Sound (USA) using a 40-year time series of biomass data for 19 distinct spawning population units collected using two survey types. Multivariate auto-regressive state-space models show independent dynamics among spawning subpopulations, suggesting that variation in herring production is partially driven by local effects at spawning grounds or during the earliest life history stages. This independence at the subpopulation level confers a stabilizing effect on the overall Puget Sound spawning stock, with herring being as much as three times more stable in the face of environmental perturbation than a single population unit of the same size. Herring populations within Puget Sound are highly asynchronous but share a common negative growth rate and may be influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The biocomplexity in the herring stock shown here demonstrates that preserving spatial and demographic diversity can increase the stability of this herring population and its availability as a resource for consumers.

Modelling emergence of oscillations in communicating bacteria: a structured approach from one to many cells

PubMed Central

Mina, Petros; di Bernardo, Mario; Savery, Nigel J.; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2013-01-01

Population-level measurements of phenotypic behaviour in biological systems may not necessarily reflect individual cell behaviour. To assess qualitative changes in the behaviour of a single cell, when alone and when part of a community, we developed an agent-based model describing the metabolic states of a population of quorum-coupled cells. The modelling is motivated by published experimental work of a synthetic genetic regulatory network (GRN) used in Escherichia coli cells that exhibit oscillatory behaviour across the population. To decipher the mechanisms underlying oscillations in the system, we investigate the behaviour of the model via numerical simulation and bifurcation analysis. In particular, we study the effect of an increase in population size as well as the spatio-temporal behaviour of the model. Our results demonstrate that oscillations are possible only in the presence of a high concentration of the coupling chemical and are due to a time scale separation in key regulatory components of the system. The model suggests that the population establishes oscillatory behaviour as the system's preferred stable state. This is achieved via an effective increase in coupling across the population. We conclude that population effects in GRN design need to be taken into consideration and be part of the design process. This is important in planning intervention strategies or designing specific cell behaviours. PMID:23135248

Modelling emergence of oscillations in communicating bacteria: a structured approach from one to many cells.

PubMed

Mina, Petros; di Bernardo, Mario; Savery, Nigel J; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2013-01-06

Population-level measurements of phenotypic behaviour in biological systems may not necessarily reflect individual cell behaviour. To assess qualitative changes in the behaviour of a single cell, when alone and when part of a community, we developed an agent-based model describing the metabolic states of a population of quorum-coupled cells. The modelling is motivated by published experimental work of a synthetic genetic regulatory network (GRN) used in Escherichia coli cells that exhibit oscillatory behaviour across the population. To decipher the mechanisms underlying oscillations in the system, we investigate the behaviour of the model via numerical simulation and bifurcation analysis. In particular, we study the effect of an increase in population size as well as the spatio-temporal behaviour of the model. Our results demonstrate that oscillations are possible only in the presence of a high concentration of the coupling chemical and are due to a time scale separation in key regulatory components of the system. The model suggests that the population establishes oscillatory behaviour as the system's preferred stable state. This is achieved via an effective increase in coupling across the population. We conclude that population effects in GRN design need to be taken into consideration and be part of the design process. This is important in planning intervention strategies or designing specific cell behaviours.

A Stable Finite-Difference Scheme for Population Growth and Diffusion on a Map

PubMed Central

Callegari, S.; Lake, G. R.; Tkachenko, N.; Weissmann, J. D.; Zollikofer, Ch. P. E.

2017-01-01

We describe a general Godunov-type splitting for numerical simulations of the Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovski–Piskunov growth and diffusion equation on a world map with Neumann boundary conditions. The procedure is semi-implicit, hence quite stable. Our principal application for this solver is modeling human population dispersal over geographical maps with changing paleovegetation and paleoclimate in the late Pleistocene. As a proxy for carrying capacity we use Net Primary Productivity (NPP) to predict times for human arrival in the Americas. PMID:28085882

A Stable Finite-Difference Scheme for Population Growth and Diffusion on a Map.

PubMed

Petersen, W P; Callegari, S; Lake, G R; Tkachenko, N; Weissmann, J D; Zollikofer, Ch P E

2017-01-01

We describe a general Godunov-type splitting for numerical simulations of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov growth and diffusion equation on a world map with Neumann boundary conditions. The procedure is semi-implicit, hence quite stable. Our principal application for this solver is modeling human population dispersal over geographical maps with changing paleovegetation and paleoclimate in the late Pleistocene. As a proxy for carrying capacity we use Net Primary Productivity (NPP) to predict times for human arrival in the Americas.

LentiPro26: novel stable cell lines for constitutive lentiviral vector production.

PubMed

Tomás, H A; Rodrigues, A F; Carrondo, M J T; Coroadinha, A S

2018-03-27

Lentiviral vectors (LVs) are excellent tools to promote gene transfer and stable gene expression. Their potential has been already demonstrated in gene therapy clinical trials for the treatment of diverse disorders. For large scale LV production, a stable producer system is desirable since it allows scalable and cost-effective viral productions, with increased reproducibility and safety. However, the development of stable systems has been challenging and time-consuming, being the selection of cells presenting high expression levels of Gag-Pro-Pol polyprotein and the cytotoxicity associated with some viral components, the main limitations. Hereby is described the establishment of a new LV producer cell line using a mutated less active viral protease to overcome potential cytotoxic limitations. The stable transfection of bicistronic expression cassettes with re-initiation of the translation mechanism enabled the generation of LentiPro26 packaging populations supporting high titers. Additionally, by skipping intermediate clone screening steps and performing only one final clone screening, it was possible to save time and generate LentiPro26-A59 cell line, that constitutively produces titers above 10 6 TU.mL -1 .day -1 , in less than six months. This work constitutes a step forward towards the development of improved LV producer cell lines, aiming to efficiently supply the clinical expanding gene therapy applications.

Stochastic stability in three-player games.

PubMed

Kamiński, Dominik; Miekisz, Jacek; Zaborowski, Marcin

2005-11-01

Animal behavior and evolution can often be described by game-theoretic models. Although in many situations the number of players is very large, their strategic interactions are usually decomposed into a sum of two-player games. Only recently were evolutionarily stable strategies defined for multi-player games and their properties analyzed [Broom, M., Cannings, C., Vickers, G.T., 1997. Multi-player matrix games. Bull. Math. Biol. 59, 931-952]. Here we study the long-run behavior of stochastic dynamics of populations of randomly matched individuals playing symmetric three-player games. We analyze the stochastic stability of equilibria in games with multiple evolutionarily stable strategies. We also show that, in some games, a population may not evolve in the long run to an evolutionarily stable equilibrium.

Changes in Age Structure and Rural Community Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGranahan, David A.

1985-01-01

Whatever migration patterns evolve, changes in the age structure mean that rural communities in general can expect fairly stable elementary school population, reduced high school population, slower growth in new business and employment, and continued increase in the elderly population. (JHZ)

The Odense University Pharmacoepidemiological Database (OPED)

Cancer.gov

The Odense University Pharmacoepidemiological Database is one of two large prescription registries in Denmark and covers a stable population that is representative of the Danish population as a whole.

Genes with stable DNA methylation levels show higher evolutionary conservation than genes with fluctuant DNA methylation levels.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruijie; Lv, Wenhua; Luan, Meiwei; Zheng, Jiajia; Shi, Miao; Zhu, Hongjie; Li, Jin; Lv, Hongchao; Zhang, Mingming; Shang, Zhenwei; Duan, Lian; Jiang, Yongshuai

2015-11-24

Different human genes often exhibit different degrees of stability in their DNA methylation levels between tissues, samples or cell types. This may be related to the evolution of human genome. Thus, we compared the evolutionary conservation between two types of genes: genes with stable DNA methylation levels (SM genes) and genes with fluctuant DNA methylation levels (FM genes). For long-term evolutionary characteristics between species, we compared the percentage of the orthologous genes, evolutionary rate dn/ds and protein sequence identity. We found that the SM genes had greater percentages of the orthologous genes, lower dn/ds, and higher protein sequence identities in all the 21 species. These results indicated that the SM genes were more evolutionarily conserved than the FM genes. For short-term evolutionary characteristics among human populations, we compared the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) density, and the linkage disequilibrium (LD) degree in HapMap populations and 1000 genomes project populations. We observed that the SM genes had lower SNP densities, and higher degrees of LD in all the 11 HapMap populations and 13 1000 genomes project populations. These results mean that the SM genes had more stable chromosome genetic structures, and were more conserved than the FM genes.

Stability and Optimal Harvesting of Modified Leslie-Gower Predator-Prey Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toaha, S.; Azis, M. I.

2018-03-01

This paper studies a modified of dynamics of Leslie-Gower predator-prey population model. The model is stated as a system of first order differential equations. The model consists of one predator and one prey. The Holling type II as a predation function is considered in this model. The predator and prey populations are assumed to be beneficial and then the two populations are harvested with constant efforts. Existence and stability of the interior equilibrium point are analysed. Linearization method is used to get the linearized model and the eigenvalue is used to justify the stability of the interior equilibrium point. From the analyses, we show that under a certain condition the interior equilibrium point exists and is locally asymptotically stable. For the model with constant efforts of harvesting, cost function, revenue function, and profit function are considered. The stable interior equilibrium point is then related to the maximum profit problem as well as net present value of revenues problem. We show that there exists a certain value of the efforts that maximizes the profit function and net present value of revenues while the interior equilibrium point remains stable. This means that the populations can live in coexistence for a long time and also maximize the benefit even though the populations are harvested with constant efforts.

LONG-TERM STABLE EQUILIBRIA FOR SYNCHRONOUS BINARY ASTEROIDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, Seth A.; Scheeres, Daniel J.

Synchronous binary asteroids may exist in a long-term stable equilibrium, where the opposing torques from mutual body tides and the binary YORP (BYORP) effect cancel. Interior of this equilibrium, mutual body tides are stronger than the BYORP effect and the mutual orbit semimajor axis expands to the equilibrium; outside of the equilibrium, the BYORP effect dominates the evolution and the system semimajor axis will contract to the equilibrium. If the observed population of small (0.1-10 km diameter) synchronous binaries are in static configurations that are no longer evolving, then this would be confirmed by a null result in the observationalmore » tests for the BYORP effect. The confirmed existence of this equilibrium combined with a shape model of the secondary of the system enables the direct study of asteroid geophysics through the tidal theory. The observed synchronous asteroid population cannot exist in this equilibrium if described by the canonical 'monolithic' geophysical model. The 'rubble pile' geophysical model proposed by Goldreich and Sari is sufficient, however it predicts a tidal Love number directly proportional to the radius of the asteroid, while the best fit to the data predicts a tidal Love number inversely proportional to the radius. This deviation from the canonical and Goldreich and Sari models motivates future study of asteroid geophysics. Ongoing BYORP detection campaigns will determine whether these systems are in an equilibrium, and future determination of secondary shapes will allow direct determination of asteroid geophysical parameters.« less

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

The BEAUTIFUL study: randomized trial of ivabradine in patients with stable coronary artery disease and left ventricular systolic dysfunction - baseline characteristics of the study population.

PubMed

Ferrari, R; Ford, I; Fox, K; Steg, P G; Tendera, M

2008-01-01

Ivabradine is a selective heart rate-lowering agent that acts by inhibiting the pacemaker current If in sinoatrial node cells. Patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction are at high risk of death and cardiac events, and the BEAUTIFUL study was designed to evaluate the effects of ivabradine on outcome in such patients receiving optimal medical therapy. This report describes the study population at baseline. BEAUTIFUL is an international, multicentre, randomized, double-blind trial to compare ivabradine with placebo in reducing mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary artery disease and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction <40%). A total of 10,917 patients were randomized. At baseline, their mean age was 65 years, 83% were male, 98% Caucasian, 88% had previous myocardial infarction, 37% had diabetes, and 40% had metabolic syndrome. Mean ejection fraction was 32% and resting heart rate was 71.6 bpm. Concomitant medications included beta-blockers (87%), renin-angiotensin system agents (89%), antithrombotic agents (94%), and lipid-lowering agents (76%). Main results from BEAUTIFUL are expected in 2008, and should show whether ivabradine, on top of optimal medical treatment, reduces mortality and cardiovascular events in this population of high-risk patients. (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel

Corridors and some ecological and evolutionary consequences of connectivity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrock, John L

2004-07-01

Abstract - By connecting disjunct patches, corridors may offset the effects of fragmentation by promoting gene flow and population persistence. However, the ultimate effect of corridors on a focal species may hinge upon two considerations: how corridors may affect ecological interactions that impinge upon that species, and how corridors might affect the fixation of novel alleles that ultimately determine fitness and persistence. Using an experimental landscape, I show that corridor-mediated changes in patch shape change seed predation in connected and unconnected patches, and shift the behavior, abundance, and distribution of seed predators. Rodent seed predators removed more seeds in connectedmore » patches, arthropod seed predators removed more seeds in rectangular patches, and avian seed predation did not differ due to patch type. Rodent foraging was greater in the interior of connected patches because changes in patch shape influenced risk perceived by rodents while foraging. Ant communities were also affected by changes in patch shape caused by corridors, rather than corridor effects per se. The distribution and abundance of ants differed among edge-rich areas (corridors and wings), edges, and the patch interior. In rectangular patches, fire ants (Solenopsis spp.) had negative impacts on other ant species. By changing the activity of rodents, and the composition of ant communities, corridors may have important impacts on seeds. Bird-dispersed seeds may benefit from increased dispersal among connected patches, but connected patches also have greater predation risk. Using a simulation model, I demonstrate that gene flow between a stable population and a population that experiences local extinction or a reduction in size (e.g. due to natural or anthropogenic disturbance) can dramatically affect fixation of alleles in the stable population. Alone or in concert, frequent disturbance, high rates of movement, and low habitat quality make it more likely that connectivity-mediated fixation will promote fixation of harmful alleles and reduce fixation of beneficial alleles.« less

Testing a Hypothesis for the Evolution of Sex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Örçal, Bora; Tüzel, Erkan; Sevim, Volkan; Jan, Naeem; Erzan, Ayşe.

An asexual set of primitive bacteria is simulated with a bit-string Penna model with a Fermi function for survival. A recent hypothesis by Jan, Stauffer, and Moseley on the evolution of sex from asexual cells as a strategy for trying to escape the effects of deleterious mutations is checked. This strategy is found to provide a successful scenario for the evolution of a stable macroscopic sexual population.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

The Dynamical History of Chariklo and Its Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Jeremy; Horner, Jonti; Hinse, Tobias C.; Marsden, Stephen C.

2017-06-01

Chariklo is the only small solar system body confirmed to have rings. Given the instability of its orbit, the presence of rings is surprising, and their origin remains poorly understood. In this work, we study the dynamical history of the Chariklo system by integrating almost 36,000 Chariklo clones backward in time for 1 Gyr under the influence of the Sun and the four giant planets. By recording all close encounters between the clones and planets, we investigate the likelihood that Chariklo’s rings could have survived since its capture to the Centaur population. Our results reveal that Chariklo’s orbit occupies a region of stable chaos, resulting in its orbit being marginally more stable than those of the other Centaurs. Despite this, we find that it was most likely captured to the Centaur population within the last 20 Myr, and that its orbital evolution has been continually punctuated by regular close encounters with the giant planets. The great majority (>99%) of those encounters within 1 Hill radius of the planet have only a small effect on the rings. We conclude that close encounters with giant planets have not had a significant effect on the ring structure. Encounters within the Roche limit of the giant planets are rare, making ring creation through tidal disruption unlikely.

The Dynamical History of Chariklo and Its Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Jeremy R.; Horner, Jonti; Hinse, Tobias; Marsden, Stephen

2017-10-01

Chariklo is the only small Solar system body confirmed to have rings. Given the instability of its orbit, the presence of rings is surprising, and their origin remains poorly understood. In this work, we study the dynamical history of the Chariklo system by integrating almost 36,000 Chariklo clones backwards in time for one Gyr under the influence of the Sun and the four giant planets. By recording all close encounters between the clones and planets, we investigate the likelihood that Chariklo's rings could have survived since its capture to the Centaur population. Our results reveal that Chariklo's orbit occupies a region of stable chaos, resulting in its orbit being marginally more stable than those of the other Centaurs. Despite this, we find that it was most likely captured to the Centaur population within the last 20 Myr, and that its orbital evolution has been continually punctuated by regular close encounters with the giant planets. The great majority (> 99%) of those encounters within one Hill radius of the planet have only a small effect on the rings. We conclude that close encounters with giant planets have not had a significant effect on the ring structure. Encounters within the Roche limit of the giant planets are rare, making ring creation through tidal disruption unlikely.

The Dynamical History of Chariklo and Its Rings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Jeremy; Horner, Jonti; Marsden, Stephen C.

Chariklo is the only small solar system body confirmed to have rings. Given the instability of its orbit, the presence of rings is surprising, and their origin remains poorly understood. In this work, we study the dynamical history of the Chariklo system by integrating almost 36,000 Chariklo clones backward in time for 1 Gyr under the influence of the Sun and the four giant planets. By recording all close encounters between the clones and planets, we investigate the likelihood that Chariklo’s rings could have survived since its capture to the Centaur population. Our results reveal that Chariklo’s orbit occupies amore » region of stable chaos, resulting in its orbit being marginally more stable than those of the other Centaurs. Despite this, we find that it was most likely captured to the Centaur population within the last 20 Myr, and that its orbital evolution has been continually punctuated by regular close encounters with the giant planets. The great majority (>99%) of those encounters within 1 Hill radius of the planet have only a small effect on the rings. We conclude that close encounters with giant planets have not had a significant effect on the ring structure. Encounters within the Roche limit of the giant planets are rare, making ring creation through tidal disruption unlikely.« less

The Absolute Bioavailability and Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of Odanacatib: A Stable-Label i.v./Oral Study in Healthy Postmenopausal Women.

PubMed

Zajic, Stefan; Rossenu, Stefaan; Hreniuk, David; Kesisoglou, Filippos; McCrea, Jacqueline; Liu, Fang; Sun, Li; Witter, Rose; Gauthier, Don; Helmy, Roy; Joss, Darrick; Ni, Tong; Stoltz, Randall; Stone, Julie; Stoch, S Aubrey

2016-09-01

A stable-label i.v./oral study design was conducted to investigate the pharmacokinetics (PK) of odanacatib. Healthy, postmenopausal women received oral doses of unlabeled odanacatib administered simultaneously with a reference of 1 mg i.v. stable (13)C-labeled odanacatib. The absolute bioavailability of odanacatib was 30% at 50 mg (the phase 3 dose) and 70% at 10 mg, which is consistent with solubility-limited absorption. Odanacatib exposure (area under the curve from zero to infinity) increased by 15% and 63% when 50 mg was administered with low-fat and high-fat meals, respectively. This magnitude of the food effect is unlikely to be clinically important. The volume of distribution was ∼100 liters. The clearance was ∼0.8 l/h (13 ml/min), supporting that odanacatib is a low-extraction ratio drug. Population PK modeling indicated that 88% of individuals had completed absorption of >80% bioavailable drug within 24 hours, with modest additional absorption after 24 hours and periodic fluctuations in plasma concentrations contributing to late values for time to Cmax in some subjects. Copyright © 2016 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Stable and dynamic microtubules coordinately shape the myosin activation zone during cytokinetic furrow formation

PubMed Central

Foe, Victoria E.; von Dassow, George

2008-01-01

The cytokinetic furrow arises from spatial and temporal regulation of cortical contractility. To test the role microtubules play in furrow specification, we studied myosin II activation in echinoderm zygotes by assessing serine19-phosphorylated regulatory light chain (pRLC) localization after precisely timed drug treatments. Cortical pRLC was globally depressed before cytokinesis, then elevated only at the equator. We implicated cell cycle biochemistry (not microtubules) in pRLC depression, and differential microtubule stability in localizing the subsequent myosin activation. With no microtubules, pRLC accumulation occurred globally instead of equatorially, and loss of just dynamic microtubules increased equatorial pRLC recruitment. Nocodazole treatment revealed a population of stable astral microtubules that formed during anaphase; among these, those aimed toward the equator grew longer, and their tips coincided with cortical pRLC accumulation. Shrinking the mitotic apparatus with colchicine revealed pRLC suppression near dynamic microtubule arrays. We conclude that opposite effects of stable versus dynamic microtubules focuses myosin activation to the cell equator during cytokinesis. PMID:18955555

The role of one-shot learning in #TheDress.

PubMed

Drissi Daoudi, Leila; Doerig, Adrien; Parkosadze, Khatuna; Kunchulia, Marina; Herzog, Michael H

2017-03-01

#TheDress is remarkable in two aspects. First, there is a bimodal split of the population in the perception of the dress's colors (white/gold vs. black/blue). Second, whereas interobserver variance is high, intra-observer variance is low, i.e., the percept rarely switches in a given individual. There are two plausible routes of explanations: either one-shot learning during the first presentation of the image splits observers into two different, stable populations, or the differences are caused by stable traits of observers, such as different visual systems. Here, we hid large parts of the image by white occluders. The majority of naïve participants perceived the dress as black and blue. With black occluders, the majority of observers perceived the dress as white and gold. The percept did not change when we subsequently presented the full image, arguing for a crucial role of one-shot learning. Next, we investigated whether the first fixation determines the perceived color in naïve observers. We found no such effect. It remains thus a puzzling question where the source of variability in the different percepts comes from.

Reconstructing diet in Napoleon's Grand Army using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis.

PubMed

Holder, Sammantha; Dupras, Tosha L; Jankauskas, Rimantas; Williams, Lana; Schultz, John

2017-05-01

Historical evidence has provided information regarding disease and mortality in Napoleon Bonaparte's Grand Army, but dietary information beyond individual soldier accounts remains scarce. The purpose of this research is to reconstruct the diets of Napoleon's multiethnic army who were associated with the Russian Campaign of 1812. We conducted stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratio analysis on femoral bone collagen of 78 individuals recovered from a salvage excavation at the mass gravesite of Šiaurės miestelis in Vilnius, Lithuania. These individuals were later discovered to be Napoleonic soldiers and camp followers who participated in the 1812 Russian Campaign. Stable carbon isotope ratios range from -19.2‰ to -11.8‰, with a mean of -17.8‰ ± 1.5‰ (1 σ). Stable nitrogen isotope ratios range from 7.1‰ to 13.6‰, with a mean of 10.5‰ ± 1.4‰ (1 σ). Both δ 13 C and δ 15 N values show a wide range of variation. Stable isotope data indicate considerable dietary variation in this population associated with a multiethnic and socially stratified military population. Diets ranged from predominantly C 3 -based to predominantly C 4 -based, with varying inputs of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine animal protein. Comparison with other European populations further denotes the exceptional range of dietary variation of soldiers and camp followers in Napoleon's army. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Continental-scale assessment of genetic diversity and population structure in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides)

Treesearch

Colin M. Callahan; Carol A. Rowe; Ronald J. Ryel; John D. Shaw; Michael D. Madritch; Karen E. Mock

2013-01-01

Aspen populations in the south-western portion of the range are consistent with expectations for a historically stable edge, with low within-population diversity, significant geographical population structuring, and little evidence of northward expansion. Structuring within the southwestern cluster may result from distinct gene pools separated during the Pleistocene...

Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

PubMed

Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

2017-05-07

Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stability and bifurcation analysis of three-species predator-prey model with non-monotonic delayed predator response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balilo, Aldrin T.; Collera, Juancho A.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we consider delayed three-species predator-prey model with non-monotonic functional response where two predator populations feed on a single prey population. Response function in both predator populations includes a time delay which represents the gestation period of the predator populations. We call a positive equlibrium solution of the form E*S=(x*,y*,y*) as a symmetric equilibrium. The goal of this paper is to determine the effect of the difference in gestation periods of predator populations to the local dynamics of symmetric equilibria. Our results include conditions on the existence of equilibrium solutions, and stability and bifurcations of symmetric equilibria as the gestation periods of predator populations are varied. A numerical bifurcation analysis tool is also used to illustrate our results. Stability switch occurs at a Hopf bifurcation. Moreover, a branch of stable periodic solutions, obtained using numerical continuation, emerges from the Hopf bifurcation. This shows that the predator population with longer gestation period oscillates higher than the predator population with shorter gestation period.

Non-lethal sampling of walleye for stable isotope analysis: a comparison of three tissues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chipps, Steven R.; VanDeHey, J.A.; Fincel, M.J.

2012-01-01

Stable isotope analysis of fishes is often performed using muscle or organ tissues that require sacrificing animals. Non-lethal sampling provides an alternative for evaluating isotopic composition for species of concern or individuals of exceptional value. Stable isotope values of white muscle (lethal) were compared with those from fins and scales (non-lethal) in walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), from multiple systems, size classes and across a range of isotopic values. Isotopic variability was also compared among populations to determine the potential of non-lethal tissues for diet-variability analyses. Muscle-derived isotope values were enriched compared with fins and depleted relative to scales. A split-sample validation technique and linear regression found that isotopic composition of walleye fins and scales was significantly related to that in muscle tissue for both δ13C and δ15N (r2 = 0.79–0.93). However, isotopic variability was significantly different between tissue types in two of six populations for δ15N and three of six populations for δ13C. Although species and population specific, these findings indicate that isotopic measures obtained from non-lethal tissues are indicative of those obtained from muscle.

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

PubMed Central

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T.

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene. PMID:26083467

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis).

PubMed

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.

Sexual reproduction and population dynamics: the role of polygyny and demographic sex differences.

PubMed Central

Lindström, J; Kokko, H

1998-01-01

Most models of population dynamics do not take sexual reproduction into account (i.e., they do not consider the role of males). However, assumptions behind this practice--that no demographic sex differences exist and males are always abundant enough to fertilize all the females--are usually not justified in natural populations. On the contrary, demographic sex differences are common, especially in polygynous species. Previous models that consider sexual reproduction report a stabilizing effect through mixing of different genotypes, thus suggesting a decrease in the propensity for complex of dynamics in sexually reproducing populations. Here we show that considering the direct role of males in reproduction and density dependence leads to the conclusion that a two-sex model is not necessarily more stable compared with the corresponding one-sex model. Although solutions exist where sexual reproduction has a stabilizing effect even when no genotypic variability is included (primarily when associated with monogamy), factors like polygyny, sex differences in survival or density dependence, and possible alterations of the primary sex ratio (the Trivers-Willard mechanism), may enlarge the parametric region of complex dynamics. Sexual reproduction therefore does not necessarily increase the stability of population dynamics and can have destabilizing effects, at least in species with complicated mating systems and sexual dimorphism. PMID:9606132

Environmental Noise, Genetic Diversity and the Evolution of Evolvability and Robustness in Model Gene Networks

PubMed Central

Steiner, Christopher F.

2012-01-01

The ability of organisms to adapt and persist in the face of environmental change is accepted as a fundamental feature of natural systems. More contentious is whether the capacity of organisms to adapt (or “evolvability”) can itself evolve and the mechanisms underlying such responses. Using model gene networks, I provide evidence that evolvability emerges more readily when populations experience positively autocorrelated environmental noise (red noise) compared to populations in stable or randomly varying (white noise) environments. Evolvability was correlated with increasing genetic robustness to effects on network viability and decreasing robustness to effects on phenotypic expression; populations whose networks displayed greater viability robustness and lower phenotypic robustness produced more additive genetic variation and adapted more rapidly in novel environments. Patterns of selection for robustness varied antagonistically with epistatic effects of mutations on viability and phenotypic expression, suggesting that trade-offs between these properties may constrain their evolutionary responses. Evolution of evolvability and robustness was stronger in sexual populations compared to asexual populations indicating that enhanced genetic variation under fluctuating selection combined with recombination load is a primary driver of the emergence of evolvability. These results provide insight into the mechanisms potentially underlying rapid adaptation as well as the environmental conditions that drive the evolution of genetic interactions. PMID:23284934

Sexually antagonistic polymorphism in simultaneous hermaphrodites

PubMed Central

Jordan, Crispin Y.; Connallon, Tim

2015-01-01

In hermaphrodites, pleiotropic genetic tradeoffs between female and male reproductive functions can lead to sexually antagonistic (SA) selection, where individual alleles have conflicting fitness effects on each sex function. While an extensive theory of SA selection exists for dioecious species, these results have not been generalized to hermaphrodites. We develop population genetic models of SA selection in simultaneous hermaphrodites, and evaluate effects of dominance, selection on each sex function, self-fertilization, and population size, on the maintenance of polymorphism. Under obligate outcrossing, hermaphrodite model predictions converge exactly with those of dioecious populations. Self-fertilization in hermaphrodites generates three points of divergence with dioecious theory. First, opportunities for stable polymorphism decline sharply and become less sensitive to dominance with increased selfing. Second, selfing introduces an asymmetry in the relative importance of selection through male versus female reproductive functions, expands the parameter space favorable for the evolutionary invasion of female-beneficial alleles, and restricts invasion criteria for male-beneficial alleles. Finally, contrary to models of unconditionally beneficial alleles, selfing decreases genetic hitchhiking effects of invading SA alleles, and should therefore decrease these population genetic signals of SA polymorphisms. We discuss implications of SA selection in hermaphrodites, including its potential role in the evolution of “selfing syndromes”. PMID:25311368

Stationary stability for evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

DOE PAGES

Harper, Marc; Fryer, Dashiell

2016-08-25

Here, we demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS) candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISSmore » candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran andWright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.« less

Development of genetic diversity, differentiation and structure over 500 years in four ponderosa pine populations.

PubMed

Lesser, M R; Parchman, T L; Jackson, S T

2013-05-01

Population history plays an important role in shaping contemporary levels of genetic variation and geographic structure. This is especially true in small, isolated range-margin populations, where effects of inbreeding, genetic drift and gene flow may be more pronounced than in large continuous populations. Effects of landscape fragmentation and isolation distance may have implications for persistence of range-margin populations if they are demographic sinks. We studied four small, disjunct populations of ponderosa pine over a 500-year period. We coupled demographic data obtained through dendroecological methods with microsatellite data to discern how and when contemporary levels of allelic diversity, among and within-population levels of differentiation, and geographic structure, arose. Alleles accumulated rapidly following initial colonization, demonstrating proportionally high levels of gene flow into the populations. At population sizes of approximately 100 individuals, allele accumulation saturated. Levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST) and Jost's D(est)) and diversity within populations (F(IS)) remained stable through time. There was no evidence of geographic genetic structure at any time in the populations' history. Proportionally, high gene flow in the early stages of population growth resulted in rapid accumulation of alleles and quickly created relatively homogenous genetic patterns among populations. Our study demonstrates that contemporary levels of genetic diversity were formed quickly and early in population development. How contemporary genetic diversity accumulates over time is a key facet of understanding population growth and development. This is especially relevant given the extent and speed at which species ranges are predicted to shift in the coming century. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A highly stable blood meal alternative for rearing Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes.

PubMed

Baughman, Ted; Peterson, Chelsea; Ortega, Corrie; Preston, Sarah R; Paton, Christopher; Williams, Jessica; Guy, Amy; Omodei, Gavin; Johnson, Brian; Williams, Helen; O'Neill, Scott L; Ritchie, Scott A; Dobson, Stephen L; Madan, Damian

2017-12-01

We investigated alternatives to whole blood for blood feeding of mosquitoes with a focus on improved stability and compatibility with mass rearing programs. In contrast to whole blood, an artificial blood diet of ATP-supplemented plasma was effective in maintaining mosquito populations and was compatible with storage for extended periods refrigerated, frozen, and as a lyophilized powder. The plasma ATP diet supported rearing of both Anopheles and Aedes mosquitoes. It was also effective in rearing Wolbachia-infected Aedes mosquitoes, suggesting compatibility with vector control efforts.

Intergenerational education mobility and depressive symptoms in a population of Mexican origin

PubMed Central

Ward, Julia B.; Haan, Mary N.; Garcia, Maria E.; Lee, Anne; To, Tu My

2016-01-01

Purpose Low educational attainment has been associated with depression among Latinos. However, few studies have collected intergenerational data to assess mental health effects of educational mobility across generations. Methods Using data from the Niños Lifestyle and Diabetes Study, we assessed the influence of intergenerational education on depressive symptoms among 603 Mexican-origin individuals. Intergenerational educational mobility was classified: stable-low (low parent/low offspring education), upwardly-mobile (low parent/high offspring education), stable-high (high parent/high offspring education), or downwardly-mobile (high parent/low offspring education). High depressive symptoms were defined as scoring ≥10 on the CESD-10. We examined prevalence ratios (PR) for depressive symptoms with levels of educational mobility. We used general estimating equations with log-binomial models to account for within-family clustering, adjusting for age, sex, and offspring and parent nativity. Results Compared to stable-low participants, the lowest prevalence of CESD-10 score ≥10 occurred in upwardly-mobile (PR=0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.39–0.78) and stable-high (PR=0.62; 95%CI=0.44–0.87) participants. Downwardly-mobile participants were also less likely to have a CESD-10 score ≥10 compared to stable-low participants (PR=0.65; 95%CI=0.38–1.11), although the estimate was not statistically significant. Conclusions Sustained stress from low intergenerational education may adversely affect depression. Latinos with stable-low or downwardly-mobile intergenerational educational attainment may need closer monitoring for depressive symptoms. PMID:27346705

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Multi-species coexistence in Lotka-Volterra competitive systems with crowding effects.

PubMed

Gavina, Maica Krizna A; Tahara, Takeru; Tainaka, Kei-Ichi; Ito, Hiromu; Morita, Satoru; Ichinose, Genki; Okabe, Takuya; Togashi, Tatsuya; Nagatani, Takashi; Yoshimura, Jin

2018-01-19

Classical Lotka-Volterra (LV) competition equation has shown that coexistence of competitive species is only possible when intraspecific competition is stronger than interspecific competition, i.e., the species inhibit their own growth more than the growth of the other species. Note that density effect is assumed to be linear in a classical LV equation. In contrast, in wild populations we can observed that mortality rate often increases when population density is very high, known as crowding effects. Under this perspective, the aggregation models of competitive species have been developed, adding the additional reduction in growth rates at high population densities. This study shows that the coexistence of a few species is promoted. However, an unsolved question is the coexistence of many competitive species often observed in natural communities. Here, we build an LV competition equation with a nonlinear crowding effect. Our results show that under a weak crowding effect, stable coexistence of many species becomes plausible, unlike the previous aggregation model. An analysis indicates that increased mortality rate under high density works as elevated intraspecific competition leading to the coexistence. This may be another mechanism for the coexistence of many competitive species leading high species diversity in nature.

Effective Size of Nonrandom Mating Populations

PubMed Central

Caballero, A.; Hill, W. G.

1992-01-01

Nonrandom mating whereby parents are related is expected to cause a reduction in effective population size because their gene frequencies are correlated and this will increase the genetic drift. The published equation for the variance effective size, N(e), which includes the possibility of nonrandom mating, does not take into account such a correlation, however. Further, previous equations to predict effective sizes in populations with partial sib mating are shown to be different, but also incorrect. In this paper, a corrected form of these equations is derived and checked by stochastic simulation. For the case of stable census number, N, and equal progeny distributions for each sex, the equation is & where S(k)(2) is the variance of family size and α is the departure from Hardy-Weinberg proportions. For a Poisson distribution of family size (S(k)(2) = 2), it reduces to N(e) = N/(1 + α), as when inbreeding is due to selfing. When nonrandom mating occurs because there is a specified system of partial inbreeding every generation, α can be substituted by Wright's F(IS) statistic, to give the effective size as a function of the proportion of inbred mates. PMID:1582565

The Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination in Different Groups.

PubMed

Domínguez, Angela; Godoy, Pere; Torner, Nuria

2016-06-01

Annual administration of the seasonal influenza vaccine, especially to persons known to be at elevated risk for developing serious complications, is the focus of current efforts to reduce the impact of influenza. The main factors influencing estimated inactivated influenza vaccine efficacy and effectiveness, the results obtained in different population groups, current vaccination strategies and the possible advantages of new vaccines are discussed. The available evidence suggests that influenza vaccines are less effective in the elderly than in young adults, but vaccination is encouraged by public health institutions due to higher mortality and complications. There is no consensus on universal vaccination of children yet economic studies suggest that yearly paediatric vaccination is cost saving. The benefits of herd immunity generated by paediatric vaccination require further study. Newer vaccines should be more and more-broadly protective, stable, easy to manufacture and administer and highly immunogenic across all population groups.

Climatic and physiological effects on leaf and tree-ring stable isotopes in California redwoods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambrose, A. R.; Baxter, W.; Wong, C.; Dawson, T. E.; Carroll, A.; Voelker, S.

2016-12-01

Variation in the stable isotope composition of organic matter can provide important information about environmental change and biological responses to it. We analyzed the stable carbon (d13C) and oxygen (d18O) isotope ratios of leaves and of the cellulose from individual tree-rings of California's two redwood species to examine how these trees have responded to environmental variation and change in both time and space. Analyses of leaf d13C for both coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) and giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) from throughout their geographical ranges show a marked gradient with tree height for trees of all sizes and ages but no clear difference among species or populations. The gradient is best explained by tree response to changes in both microenvironment and physiology that are known to change with height. In contrast, leaf d18O for both species showed no clear relationship with height but very clear differences between species and populations with giant sequoia displaying a much stronger inferred leaf-level response to the higher evaporative conditions present in the Sierra Nevada mountains as compared to the coast. Both species showed population-level differences with the driest and warmest sites most distinct from all of the others. Intra-annual analyses of d13C and d18O in tree-rings over a 21-year period (1974-1994) were also used to explore how climate and tree response to climate was recorded for both species. These analyses revealed unique (local) climatic effects and response to the climate for each species and population of both redwood species. Most pronounced was a significant increase in intrinsic Water Use Efficiency (iWUE) derived from d13C data over the study period in both species, and a distinct d18O response in relation to drought (e.g. 1976/1977) and to warmer days and nights and above-average precipitation (e.g., 1982-1985). Patterns of co-variation in d13C and d18O in both species suggest that during dry and also warm periods these trees appear to first down-regulate their water use and secondly their carbon fixation and that high evaporative conditions drive some of the most marked changes in both variables. This information should be useful for efforts to conserve and protect both redwood species under novel environmental conditions expected in the coming decades.

Quantifying intra-population variability in stable isotope data for spotted seatrout (cynoscion nebulosus)

EPA Science Inventory

Stable isotope (SI) values of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) are useful for determining the trophic connectivity between species within an ecosystem, but interpretation of these data involves important assumptions about sources of intrapopulation variability. We compared i...

75 FR 7625 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Rio Grande Silvery Minnow (Hybognathus amarus...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-22

..., experimental population under section 10(j) of the ESA (December 8, 2008; 73 FR 74357). Throughout much of its... consider downlisting the Rio Grande silvery minnow from endangered to threatened when three populations (including a stable middle Rio Grande population and at least two additional populations that are self...

Selecting at-risk populations for sexually transmitted disease/HIV intervention studies.

PubMed

Wu, Zunyou; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Detels, Roger; Li, Li; Guan, Jihui; Liang, Guojun; Yap, Lorraine

2007-12-01

This paper describes one option to select populations for randomized, controlled trials (RCT). We used a popular opinion leader intervention in Fuzhou, China, to: (1) identify population selection criteria; (2) systematically examine the suitability of potential target populations and settings; (3) briefly evaluate risk and stability in the population; and (4) evaluate regional and organizational support among administrators and government officials. After comparing migrant villagers, truck drivers, factory workers, construction workers, and market employees in five regions of China, market employees in Fuzhou were identified as the optimal target population. Markets were the optimal sites for several reasons: (1) the population demonstrated a sufficient base rate of sexually transmitted diseases; (2) the population was stable over time; (3) a sufficient number of sites of manageable sizes were available; (4) stable networks existed; (5) local gatekeepers/stakeholders supported the intervention; (6) there was organizational capacity in the local health department to mount the intervention; (7) the demographic profile was similar across potential sites; and (8) the sites were sufficiently distanced to minimize contamination. Evaluating intervention efficacy in an RCT requires a time-consuming and rigorous process that systematically and routinely documents selection criteria, evaluates multiple populations, sites, and organizations for their appropriateness.

Habitat stability, predation risk and 'memory syndromes'.

PubMed

Dalesman, S; Rendle, A; Dall, S R X

2015-05-27

Habitat stability and predation pressure are thought to be major drivers in the evolutionary maintenance of behavioural syndromes, with trait covariance only occurring within specific habitats. However, animals also exhibit behavioural plasticity, often through memory formation. Memory formation across traits may be linked, with covariance in memory traits (memory syndromes) selected under particular environmental conditions. This study tests whether the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis, demonstrates consistency among memory traits ('memory syndrome') related to threat avoidance and foraging. We used eight populations originating from three different habitat types: i) laboratory populations (stable habitat, predator-free); ii) river populations (fairly stable habitat, fish predation); and iii) ditch populations (unstable habitat, invertebrate predation). At a population level, there was a negative relationship between memories related to threat avoidance and food selectivity, but no consistency within habitat type. At an individual level, covariance between memory traits was dependent on habitat. Laboratory populations showed no covariance among memory traits, whereas river populations showed a positive correlation between food memories, and ditch populations demonstrated a negative relationship between threat memory and food memories. Therefore, selection pressures among habitats appear to act independently on memory trait covariation at an individual level and the average response within a population.

Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models.

PubMed

Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

2016-01-01

Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Global warming and effects on the Arctic fox.

PubMed

Fuglei, Eva; Ims, Rolf Anker

2008-01-01

We predict the effect of global warming on the arctic fox, the only endemic terrestrial predatory mammals in the arctic region. We emphasize the difference between coastal and inland arctic fox populations. Inland foxes rely on peak abundance of lemming prey to sustain viable populations. In the short-term, warmer winters result in missed lemming peak years and reduced opportunities for successful arctic fox breeding. In the long-term, however, warmer climate will increase plant productivity and more herbivore prey for competitive dominant predators moving in from the south. The red fox has already intruded the arctic region and caused a retreat of the southern limit of arctic fox distribution range. Coastal arctic foxes, which rely on the richer and temporally stable marine subsidies, will be less prone to climate-induced resource limitations. Indeed, arctic islands, becoming protected from southern species invasions as the extent of sea ice is decreasing, may become the last refuges for coastal populations of Arctic foxes.

Suppression of invasive lake trout in an isolated backcountry lake in Glacier National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fredenberg, C. R.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Guy, Christopher S.; D'Angelo, Vincent S.; Downs, Christopher C.; Syslo, John M.

2017-01-01

Fisheries managers have implemented suppression programmes to control non-native lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush (Walbaum), in several lakes throughout the western United States. This study determined the feasibility of experimentally suppressing lake trout using gillnets in an isolated backcountry lake in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, for the conservation of threatened bull trout, Salvelinus confluentus (Suckley). The demographics of the lake trout population during suppression (2009–2013) were described, and those data were used to assess the effects of suppression scenarios on population growth rate (λ) using an age-structured population model. Model simulations indicated that the population was growing exponentially (λ = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.16–1.28) prior to suppression. However, suppression resulted in declining λ(0.61–0.79) for lake trout, which was concomitant with stable bull trout adult abundances. Continued suppression at or above observed exploitation levels is needed to ensure continued population declines.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Evaluating the use of stable isotope analysis to infer the feeding ecology of a growing US gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) population.

PubMed

Lerner, Jacob E; Ono, Kathryn; Hernandez, Keith M; Runstadler, Jonathan A; Puryear, Wendy B; Polito, Michael J

2018-01-01

Gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) have been rapidly recolonizing the Northeast US coast, eliciting concern from the fishing industry. However, the ecological effect of this recovery is still unknown and as such, research is needed to better understand how the diet composition of gray seals in US waters will contribute to the ecological impact. While previous research on seal diets has focused on the analysis of hard prey remains, stable isotope analysis presents an alternative method that can be used to describe marine mammal diets when direct observation is impossible. To address this issue, we used stable isotope analysis of gray seal pup vibrissae and lanugo from Monomoy Island, Cape Cod, MA during the 2015/2016 winter breeding season to estimate adult female diet composition during pregnancy. Stable isotope mixing models (SIMM) suggested adult female gray seals were consuming greater amounts of cephalopod prey and less sand lance than previously indicated from analysis of hard prey remains. However, using SIMMs to estimate the diet composition of gray seals remains difficult due to the large number of isotopically similar prey species and uncertainty in tissue-specific, stable isotope trophic enrichment factors. Even so, by combining prey sources into ecologically informative groups and integrating prior information into SIMMs it is possible to obtain additional insights into the diet of this generalist predator.

Long-term effects of timber harvesting on hemicellulolytic microbial populations in coniferous forest soils.

PubMed

Leung, Hilary T C; Maas, Kendra R; Wilhelm, Roland C; Mohn, William W

2016-02-01

Forest ecosystems need to be sustainably managed, as they are major reservoirs of biodiversity, provide important economic resources and modulate global climate. We have a poor knowledge of populations responsible for key biomass degradation processes in forest soils and the effects of forest harvesting on these populations. Here, we investigated the effects of three timber-harvesting methods, varying in the degree of organic matter removal, on putatively hemicellulolytic bacterial and fungal populations 10 or more years after harvesting and replanting. We used stable-isotope probing to identify populations that incorporated (13)C from labeled hemicellulose, analyzing (13)C-enriched phospholipid fatty acids, bacterial 16 S rRNA genes and fungal ITS regions. In soil microcosms, we identified 104 bacterial and 52 fungal hemicellulolytic operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Several of these OTUs are affiliated with taxa not previously reported to degrade hemicellulose, including the bacterial genera Methylibium, Pelomonas and Rhodoferax, and the fungal genera Cladosporium, Pseudeurotiaceae, Capronia, Xenopolyscytalum and Venturia. The effect of harvesting on hemicellulolytic populations was evaluated based on in situ bacterial and fungal OTUs. Harvesting treatments had significant but modest long-term effects on relative abundances of hemicellulolytic populations, which differed in strength between two ecozones and between soil layers. For soils incubated in microcosms, prior harvesting treatments did not affect the rate of incorporation of hemicellulose carbon into microbial biomass. In six ecozones across North America, distributions of the bacterial hemicellulolytic OTUs were similar, whereas distributions of fungal ones differed. Our work demonstrates that diverse taxa in soil are hemicellulolytic, many of which are differentially affected by the impact of harvesting on environmental conditions. However, the hemicellulolytic capacity of soil communities appears resilient.

Long-term effects of timber harvesting on hemicellulolytic microbial populations in coniferous forest soils

PubMed Central

Leung, Hilary T C; Maas, Kendra R; Wilhelm, Roland C; Mohn, William W

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems need to be sustainably managed, as they are major reservoirs of biodiversity, provide important economic resources and modulate global climate. We have a poor knowledge of populations responsible for key biomass degradation processes in forest soils and the effects of forest harvesting on these populations. Here, we investigated the effects of three timber-harvesting methods, varying in the degree of organic matter removal, on putatively hemicellulolytic bacterial and fungal populations 10 or more years after harvesting and replanting. We used stable-isotope probing to identify populations that incorporated 13C from labeled hemicellulose, analyzing 13C-enriched phospholipid fatty acids, bacterial 16 S rRNA genes and fungal ITS regions. In soil microcosms, we identified 104 bacterial and 52 fungal hemicellulolytic operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Several of these OTUs are affiliated with taxa not previously reported to degrade hemicellulose, including the bacterial genera Methylibium, Pelomonas and Rhodoferax, and the fungal genera Cladosporium, Pseudeurotiaceae, Capronia, Xenopolyscytalum and Venturia. The effect of harvesting on hemicellulolytic populations was evaluated based on in situ bacterial and fungal OTUs. Harvesting treatments had significant but modest long-term effects on relative abundances of hemicellulolytic populations, which differed in strength between two ecozones and between soil layers. For soils incubated in microcosms, prior harvesting treatments did not affect the rate of incorporation of hemicellulose carbon into microbial biomass. In six ecozones across North America, distributions of the bacterial hemicellulolytic OTUs were similar, whereas distributions of fungal ones differed. Our work demonstrates that diverse taxa in soil are hemicellulolytic, many of which are differentially affected by the impact of harvesting on environmental conditions. However, the hemicellulolytic capacity of soil communities appears resilient. PMID:26274049

Effects of Genetic Drift and Gene Flow on the Selective Maintenance of Genetic Variation

PubMed Central

Star, Bastiaan; Spencer, Hamish G.

2013-01-01

Explanations for the genetic variation ubiquitous in natural populations are often classified by the population–genetic processes they emphasize: natural selection or mutation and genetic drift. Here we investigate models that incorporate all three processes in a spatially structured population, using what we call a construction approach, simulating finite populations under selection that are bombarded with a steady stream of novel mutations. As expected, the amount of genetic variation compared to previous models that ignored the stochastic effects of drift was reduced, especially for smaller populations and when spatial structure was most profound. By contrast, however, for higher levels of gene flow and larger population sizes, the amount of genetic variation found after many generations was greater than that in simulations without drift. This increased amount of genetic variation is due to the introduction of slightly deleterious alleles by genetic drift and this process is more efficient when migration load is higher. The incorporation of genetic drift also selects for fitness sets that exhibit allele-frequency equilibria with larger domains of attraction: they are “more stable.” Moreover, the finiteness of populations strongly influences levels of local adaptation, selection strength, and the proportion of allele-frequency vectors that can be distinguished from the neutral expectation. PMID:23457235

The effects of host-feeding on stability of discrete-time host-parasitoid population dynamic models.

PubMed

Emerick, Brooks; Singh, Abhyudai

2016-02-01

Discrete-time models are the traditional approach for capturing population dynamics of a host-parasitoid system. Recent work has introduced a semi-discrete framework for obtaining model update functions that connect host-parasitoid population levels from year-to-year. In particular, this framework uses differential equations to describe the host-parasitoid interaction during the time of year when they come in contact, allowing specific behaviors to be mechanistically incorporated. We use the semi-discrete approach to study the effects of host-feeding, which occurs when a parasitoid consumes a potential host larva without ovipositing. We find that host-feeding by itself cannot stabilize the system, and both populations exhibit behavior similar to the Nicholson-Bailey model. However, when combined with stabilizing mechanisms such as density-dependent host mortality, host-feeding contracts the region of parameter space that allows for a stable host-parasitoid equilibrium. In contrast, when combined with a density-dependent parasitoid attack rate, host-feeding expands the non-zero equilibrium stability region. Our results show that host-feeding causes inefficiency in the parasitoid population, which yields a higher population of hosts per generation. This suggests that host-feeding may have limited long-term impact in terms of suppressing host levels for biological control applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

2015-01-01

Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

The role of drought- and disturbance-mediated competition in shaping community responses to varied environments.

PubMed

Napier, Joseph D; Mordecai, Erin A; Heckman, Robert W

2016-06-01

By altering the strength of intra- and interspecific competition, droughts may reshape plant communities. Furthermore, species may respond differently to drought when other influences, such as herbivory, are considered. To explore this relationship, we conducted a greenhouse experiment measuring responses to inter- and intraspecific competition for two grasses, Schedonorus arundinaceus and Paspalum dilatatum, while varying water availability and simulating herbivory via clipping. We then parameterized population growth models to examine the long-term outcome of competition under these conditions. Under drought, S. arundinaceus was less water stressed than P. dilatatum, which exhibited severe water stress; clipping alleviated this stress, increasing the competitive ability of P. dilatatum relative to S. arundinaceus. Although P. dilatatum competed weakly under drought, clipping reduced water stress in P. dilatatum, thereby enhancing its ability to compete with S. arundinaceus under drought. Supporting these observations, population growth models predicted that P. dilatatum would exclude S. arundinaceus when clipped under drought, while S. arundinaceus would exclude P. dilatatum when unclipped under drought. When the modeled environment varied temporally, environmental variation promoted niche differences that, though insufficient to maintain stable coexistence, prevented unconditional competitive exclusion by promoting priority effects. Our results suggest that it is important to consider how species respond not just to stable, but also to variable, environments. When species differ in their responses to drought, competition, and simulated herbivory, stable environments may promote competitive exclusion, while fluctuating environments may promote coexistence. These interactions are critical to understanding how species will respond to global change.

Effect of nuclear-reaction mechanisms on the population of excited nuclear states and isomeric ratios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skobelev, N. K., E-mail: skobelev@jinr.ru

2016-07-15

Experimental data on the cross sections for channels of fusion and transfer reactions induced by beams of radioactive halo nuclei and clustered and stable loosely bound nuclei were analyzed, and the results of this analysis were summarized. The interplay of the excitation of single-particle states in reaction-product nuclei and direct reaction channels was established for transfer reactions. Respective experiments were performed in stable ({sup 6}Li) and radioactive ({sup 6}He) beams of the DRIBs accelerator complex at the Flerov Laboratory of Nuclear Reactions, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, and in deuteron and {sup 3}He beams of the U-120M cyclotron at themore » Nuclear Physics Institute, Academy Sciences of Czech Republic (Řež and Prague, Czech Republic). Data on subbarrier and near-barrier fusion reactions involving clustered and loosely bound light nuclei ({sup 6}Li and {sup 3}He) can be described quite reliably within simple evaporation models with allowance for different reaction Q-values and couple channels. In reactions involving halo nuclei, their structure manifests itself most strongly in the region of energies below the Coulomb barrier. Neutron transfer occurs with a high probability in the interactions of all loosely bound nuclei with light and heavy stable nuclei at positive Q-values. The cross sections for such reactions and the respective isomeric ratios differ drastically for nucleon stripping and nucleon pickup mechanisms. This is due to the difference in the population probabilities for excited single-particle states.« less

The use of genetics for the management of a recovering population: temporal assessment of migratory peregrine falcons in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Jeff A.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Sage, George K.; Burnham, Kurt K.; Brown, Joseph W.; Maechtle, Tom L.; Seegar, William S.; Yates, Michael A.; Anderson, Bud; Mindell, David P.

2010-01-01

Background:Our ability to monitor populations or species that were once threatened or endangered and in the process of recovery is enhanced by using genetic methods to assess overall population stability and size over time. This can be accomplished most directly by obtaining genetic measures from temporally-spaced samples that reflect the overall stability of the population as given by changes in genetic diversity levels (allelic richness and heterozygosity), degree of population differentiation (FST and DEST), and effective population size (Ne). The primary goal of any recovery effort is to produce a long-term self-sustaining population, and these measures provide a metric by which we can gauge our progress and help make important management decisions. Methodology/Principal Findings:The peregrine falcon in North America (Falco peregrinus tundrius and anatum) was delisted in 1994 and 1999, respectively, and its abundance will be monitored by the species Recovery Team every three years until 2015. Although the United States Fish and Wildlife Service makes a distinction between tundrius and anatum subspecies, our genetic results based on eleven microsatellite loci, including those from Brown et al. (2007), suggest no differentiation and warrant delineation of a subspecies in its northern latitudinal distribution from Alaska through Canada into Greenland. Using temporal samples collected at Padre Island, Texas during migration (seven temporal time periods between 1985-2007), no significant differences in genetic diversity or significant population differentiation in allele frequencies between time periods were observed and were indistinguishable from those obtained from tundrius/anatum breeding locations throughout their northern distribution. Estimates of harmonic mean Ne were variable and imprecise, but always greater than 500 when employing multiple temporal genetic methods. These results, including those from simulations to assess the power of each method to estimate Ne, suggest a stable population consistent with data from field-based monitoring indicating that this species is stable or continuing to increase in abundance. Therefore, historic and continuing efforts to prevent the extinction of the peregrine falcon in North America appear successful, further highlighting the importance of archiving samples for continual assessment of population recovery and long-term viability.

The Hawk-Dove game in phenotypically homogeneous and heterogeneous populations of finite dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laruelle, Annick; da Silva Rocha, André Barreira; Escobedo, Ramón

2018-02-01

The Hawk-Dove game played between individuals in populations of finite dimension is analyzed by means of a stochastic model. We take into account both cases when all individuals in the population are either phenotypically homogeneous or heterogeneous. A strategy in the model is a gene representing the probability of playing the Hawk strategy. Individual interactions at the microscopic level are described by a genetic algorithm where evolution results from the interplay among selection, mutation, drift and cross-over of genes. We show that the behavioral patterns observed at the macroscopic level can be reproduced as the emergent result of individual interactions governed by the rules of the Hawk-Dove game at the microscopic level. We study how the results of the genetic algorithm compare with those obtained in evolutionary game theory, finding that, although genes continuously change both their presence and frequency in the population over time, the population average behavior always achieves stationarity and, when this happens, the final average strategy played in the population oscillates around the evolutionarily stable strategy in the homogeneous population case or the neutrally stable set in the heterogeneous population case.

Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

Detection of stable community structures within gut microbiota co-occurrence networks from different human populations.

PubMed

Jackson, Matthew A; Bonder, Marc Jan; Kuncheva, Zhana; Zierer, Jonas; Fu, Jingyuan; Kurilshikov, Alexander; Wijmenga, Cisca; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Bell, Jordana T; Spector, Tim D; Steves, Claire J

2018-01-01

Microbes in the gut microbiome form sub-communities based on shared niche specialisations and specific interactions between individual taxa. The inter-microbial relationships that define these communities can be inferred from the co-occurrence of taxa across multiple samples. Here, we present an approach to identify comparable communities within different gut microbiota co-occurrence networks, and demonstrate its use by comparing the gut microbiota community structures of three geographically diverse populations. We combine gut microbiota profiles from 2,764 British, 1,023 Dutch, and 639 Israeli individuals, derive co-occurrence networks between their operational taxonomic units, and detect comparable communities within them. Comparing populations we find that community structure is significantly more similar between datasets than expected by chance. Mapping communities across the datasets, we also show that communities can have similar associations to host phenotypes in different populations. This study shows that the community structure within the gut microbiota is stable across populations, and describes a novel approach that facilitates comparative community-centric microbiome analyses.

Impact of in-Sewer Degradation of Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) Population Markers on a Population Model.

PubMed

O'Brien, Jake William; Banks, Andrew Phillip William; Novic, Andrew Joseph; Mueller, Jochen F; Jiang, Guangming; Ort, Christoph; Eaglesham, Geoff; Yuan, Zhiguo; Thai, Phong K

2017-04-04

A key uncertainty of wastewater-based epidemiology is the size of the population which contributed to a given wastewater sample. We previously developed and validated a Bayesian inference model to estimate population size based on 14 population markers which: (1) are easily measured and (2) have mass loads which correlate with population size. However, the potential uncertainty of the model prediction due to in-sewer degradation of these markers was not evaluated. In this study, we addressed this gap by testing their stability under sewer conditions and assessed whether degradation impacts the model estimates. Five markers, which formed the core of our model, were stable in the sewers while the others were not. Our evaluation showed that the presence of unstable population markers in the model did not decrease the precision of the population estimates providing that stable markers such as acesulfame remained in the model. However, to achieve the minimum uncertainty in population estimates, we propose that the core markers to be included in population models for other sites should meet two additional criteria: (3) negligible degradation in wastewater to ensure the stability of chemicals during collection; and (4) < 10% in-sewer degradation could occur during the mean residence time of the sewer network.

The ecological competition and grazing reverse the effects of sulfamethoxazole on plankton: a case study on characterizing community-level effect.

PubMed

Wang, Changyou; Liang, Shengkang; Zhang, Yong

2018-04-12

The toxic effects of sulfamethoxazole (SMX) on densities of two algae, Platymonas helgolandica var. tsingtaoensis, Isochrysis galbana, and of a rotifer, Brachionus plicatilis, were tested by the population and community experiments. Two endpoints, the carrying capacity and the densities array of community in steady state (DACS), were used to characterize the toxic effects at a population level and a community one, respectively. The results showed that the carrying capacity of P. helgolandica var. tsingtaoensis and B. plicatilis did not decline significantly in population test when the concentration of SMX was lower than 6.0 mg L -1 and 12.0 mg L -1 , respectively. However, I. galbana was sensitive to SMX and had presented toxic effect at 3.0 mg L -1 . By extrapolation of toxic effect at a population level to a community one, a derived community-NOEC was 3.0 mg L -1 , representing an inference from data of toxic effects at population level. In community experiment, when the customized community was in steady state, the density of I. galbana increased as a whole with SMX concentration in the range of tested concentration (0-144 mg L -1 ), while that of P. helgolandica var. tsingtaoensis assumed the trend of a reversed "v" in this range. Only the density of B. plicatilis decreased with SMX concentration. With the DACS as endpoint, a NOEC for the customized community was determined to be 6.0 mg L -1 . This indicates that interspecific interactions can reverse the toxic effects of SMX on phytoplankton. The DACS was reliable and stable, serving as the endpoints in assessment of the effects of the pollutants on the ecosystems.

Global gene expression analysis provides insight into local adaptation to geothermal streams in tadpoles of the Andean toad Rhinella spinulosa.

PubMed

Pastenes, Luis; Valdivieso, Camilo; Di Genova, Alex; Travisany, Dante; Hart, Andrew; Montecino, Martín; Orellana, Ariel; Gonzalez, Mauricio; Gutiérrez, Rodrigo A; Allende, Miguel L; Maass, Alejandro; Méndez, Marco A

2017-05-16

The anuran Rhinella spinulosa is distributed along the Andes Range at altitudes that undergo wide daily and seasonal variation in temperature. One of the populations inhabits geothermal streams, a stable environment that influences life history traits such as the timing of metamorphosis. To investigate whether this population has undergone local adaptation to this unique habitat, we carried out transcriptome analyses in animals from two localities in two developmental stages (prometamorphic and metamorphic) and exposed them to two temperatures (20 and 25 °C). RNA-Seq, de novo assembly and annotation defined a transcriptome revealing 194,469 high quality SNPs, with 1,507 genes under positive selection. Comparisons among the experimental conditions yielded 1,593 differentially expressed genes. A bioinformatics search for candidates revealed a total of 70 genes that are highly likely to be implicated in the adaptive response of the population living in a stable environment, compared to those living in an environment with variable temperatures. Most importantly, the population inhabiting the geothermal environment showed decreased transcriptional plasticity and reduced genetic variation compared to its counterpart from the non-stable environment. This analysis will help to advance the understanding of the molecular mechanisms that account for the local adaptation to geothermal streams in anurans.

Harnessing recombination to speed adaptive evolution in Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Winkler, James; Kao, Katy C

2012-09-01

Evolutionary engineering typically involves asexual propagation of a strain to improve a desired phenotype. However, asexual populations suffer from extensive clonal interference, a phenomenon where distinct lineages of beneficial clones compete and are often lost from the population given sufficient time. Improved adaptive mutants can likely be generated by genetic exchange between lineages, thereby reducing clonal interference. We present a system that allows continuous in situ recombination by using an Esherichia coli F-based conjugation system lacking surface exclusion. Evolution experiments revealed that Hfr-mediated recombination significantly speeds adaptation in certain circumstances. These results show that our system is stable, effective, and suitable for use in evolutionary engineering applications. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population trends, reproductive success, and organochlorine chemical contaminants in waterbirds nesting in Galveston Bay, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, K.A.; Krynitsky, A.J.

1986-01-01

The effects of environmental contaminants on the reproductive success of olivaceous cormorants (Phalacrocorax olivaceus ), Laughing gulls (Larus atricilla ), and black skimmers (Rhynchops niger ) nesting in Galveston Bay, Texas were investigated from 1980 through 1982. Populations of cormorants and gulls have remained stable in recent years, but skimmer numbers may have declined. Cormorants produced 1.9 to 2.8 young per pair in nests that remained active throughout the season. Gull and skimmer reproduction was seriously limited by storms and predation. DDE and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) residues in carcasses and eggs generally were below levels associated with chronic poisoning and reproductive problems in most species of birds.

A 100-year sedimentary record of natural and anthropogenic impacts on a shallow eutrophic lake, Lake Chaohu, China.

PubMed

Zan, Fengyu; Huo, Shouliang; Xi, Beidou; Zhu, Chaowei; Liao, Haiqing; Zhang, Jingtian; Yeager, Kevin M

2012-03-01

In this study, the sediment profiles of total organic carbon, total nitrogen, C/N ratios, total phosphorus, N/P ratios, C/P ratios, particle sizes, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) were used to investigate natural and anthropogenic impacts on Lake Chaohu over the past 100 years. Before 1960, Lake Chaohu experienced low productivity and a relatively steady and low nutrient input. The increasing concentration and fluxes of total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, together with changes in the δ(13)C and δ(15)N of organic material in the sediment cores, suggested that the anthropogenic effects on trophic status first started because of an increase in nutrient input caused by a population increase in the drainage area. With the construction of the Chaohu Dam, an increase in the utilization of fertilizer and the population growth which occurred since 1960, stable depositional conditions and increasing nutrient input resulted in a dominantly algae-derived organic matter source and high productivity. Nutrient input increased most significantly around 1980 following the rapidly growing population, with concomitant urbanization, industrial and agricultural development. This study also revealed that the concentration and distribution of nutrients varied between different areas of sediment within Lake Chaohu because of the influence of different drainage basins and pollution sources. This journal is © The Royal Society of Chemistry 2012

A study of distribution, sex differences and stability of lip print patterns in an Indian population.

PubMed

Kapoor, Neeti; Badiye, Ashish

2017-09-01

Lip prints are very useful in forensic investigations. The objective of this study is to determine predominant lip print pattern found among a central Indian population, to evaluate whether any sex difference exists and to study the permanence of the pattern over a 6 month duration. This study included 200 healthy adult subjects comprising of 100 males and 100 females in the age group of 18-25 years. A convenient and easier method of data collection i.e., digital photography was used instead of the traditional lipstick methods. Lip prints were then divided into four quadrants and recognized as per Suzuki and Tsuchihashi's classification. Type I (30.63%) was found to be most predominant overall in the Marathi population. Type I (29.75%) and Type III (35.75%) were found most prevalent in males and females respectively. Applying the Chi-Square test, statistically significant differences ( p  < 0.05) were observed between male and female lip print patterns in each of the quadrants individually and all quadrants taken together. The lip print patterns remained stable over a period of six-months. Being stable and with significant sex differences, lip prints can be effectively used as an important tool in forensic investigations for individualization as well as identification of sex of the donor, thus, narrowing down the scope of investigation to almost half.

The Dynamics of HPV Infection and Cervical Cancer Cells.

PubMed

Asih, Tri Sri Noor; Lenhart, Suzanne; Wise, Steven; Aryati, Lina; Adi-Kusumo, F; Hardianti, Mardiah S; Forde, Jonathan

2016-01-01

The development of cervical cells from normal cells infected by human papillomavirus into invasive cancer cells can be modeled using population dynamics of the cells and free virus. The cell populations are separated into four compartments: susceptible cells, infected cells, precancerous cells and cancer cells. The model system of differential equations also has a free virus compartment in the system, which infect normal cells. We analyze the local stability of the equilibrium points of the model and investigate the parameters, which play an important role in the progression toward invasive cancer. By simulation, we investigate the boundary between initial conditions of solutions, which tend to stable equilibrium point, representing controlled infection, and those which tend to unbounded growth of the cancer cell population. Parameters affected by drug treatment are varied, and their effect on the risk of cancer progression is explored.

Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

PubMed

Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G

1995-01-01

The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

A two-locus model of spatially varying stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait

PubMed Central

Geroldinger, Ludwig; Bürger, Reinhard

2014-01-01

The consequences of spatially varying, stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait in a subdivided population are studied. A deterministic two-locus two-deme model is employed to explore the effects of migration, the degree of divergent selection, and the genetic architecture, i.e., the recombination rate and ratio of locus effects, on the maintenance of genetic variation. The possible equilibrium configurations are determined as functions of the migration rate. They depend crucially on the strength of divergent selection and the genetic architecture. The maximum migration rates are investigated below which a stable fully polymorphic equilibrium or a stable single-locus polymorphism can exist. Under stabilizing selection, but with different optima in the demes, strong recombination may facilitate the maintenance of polymorphism. However usually, and in particular with directional selection in opposite direction, the critical migration rates are maximized by a concentrated genetic architecture, i.e., by a major locus and a tightly linked minor one. Thus, complementing previous work on the evolution of genetic architectures in subdivided populations subject to diversifying selection, it is shown that concentrated architectures may aid the maintenance of polymorphism. Conditions are obtained when this is the case. Finally, the dependence of the phenotypic variance, linkage disequilibrium, and various measures of local adaptation and differentiation on the parameters is elaborated. PMID:24726489

A two-locus model of spatially varying stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait.

PubMed

Geroldinger, Ludwig; Bürger, Reinhard

2014-06-01

The consequences of spatially varying, stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait in a subdivided population are studied. A deterministic two-locus two-deme model is employed to explore the effects of migration, the degree of divergent selection, and the genetic architecture, i.e., the recombination rate and ratio of locus effects, on the maintenance of genetic variation. The possible equilibrium configurations are determined as functions of the migration rate. They depend crucially on the strength of divergent selection and the genetic architecture. The maximum migration rates are investigated below which a stable fully polymorphic equilibrium or a stable single-locus polymorphism can exist. Under stabilizing selection, but with different optima in the demes, strong recombination may facilitate the maintenance of polymorphism. However usually, and in particular with directional selection in opposite direction, the critical migration rates are maximized by a concentrated genetic architecture, i.e., by a major locus and a tightly linked minor one. Thus, complementing previous work on the evolution of genetic architectures in subdivided populations subject to diversifying selection, it is shown that concentrated architectures may aid the maintenance of polymorphism. Conditions are obtained when this is the case. Finally, the dependence of the phenotypic variance, linkage disequilibrium, and various measures of local adaptation and differentiation on the parameters is elaborated. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age and diagnostic performance of Alzheimer disease CSF biomarkers.

PubMed

Mattsson, N; Rosén, E; Hansson, O; Andreasen, N; Parnetti, L; Jonsson, M; Herukka, S-K; van der Flier, W M; Blankenstein, M A; Ewers, M; Rich, K; Kaiser, E; Verbeek, M M; Olde Rikkert, M; Tsolaki, M; Mulugeta, E; Aarsland, D; Visser, P J; Schröder, J; Marcusson, J; de Leon, M; Hampel, H; Scheltens, P; Wallin, A; Eriksdotter-Jönhagen, M; Minthon, L; Winblad, B; Blennow, K; Zetterberg, H

2012-02-14

Core CSF changes in Alzheimer disease (AD) are decreased amyloid β(1-42), increased total tau, and increased phospho-tau, probably indicating amyloid plaque accumulation, axonal degeneration, and tangle pathology, respectively. These biomarkers identify AD already at the predementia stage, but their diagnostic performance might be affected by age-dependent increase of AD-type brain pathology in cognitively unaffected elderly. We investigated effects of age on the diagnostic performance of CSF biomarkers in a uniquely large multicenter study population, including a cross-sectional cohort of 529 patients with AD dementia (median age 71, range 43-89 years) and 304 controls (67, 44-91 years), and a longitudinal cohort of 750 subjects without dementia with mild cognitive impairment (69, 43-89 years) followed for at least 2 years, or until dementia diagnosis. The specificities for subjects without AD and the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves decreased with age. However, the positive predictive value for a combination of biomarkers remained stable, while the negative predictive value decreased only slightly in old subjects, as an effect of the high AD prevalence in older ages. Although the diagnostic accuracies for AD decreased with age, the predictive values for a combination of biomarkers remained essentially stable. The findings highlight biomarker variability across ages, but support the use of CSF biomarkers for AD even in older populations.

Age and diagnostic performance of Alzheimer disease CSF biomarkers

PubMed Central

Rosén, E.; Hansson, O.; Andreasen, N.; Parnetti, L.; Jonsson, M.; Herukka, S.-K.; van der Flier, W.M.; Blankenstein, M.A.; Ewers, M.; Rich, K.; Kaiser, E.; Verbeek, M.M.; Olde Rikkert, M.; Tsolaki, M.; Mulugeta, E.; Aarsland, D.; Visser, P.J.; Schröder, J.; Marcusson, J.; de Leon, M.; Hampel, H.; Scheltens, P.; Wallin, A.; Eriksdotter-Jönhagen, M.; Minthon, L.; Winblad, B.; Blennow, K.; Zetterberg, H.

2012-01-01

Objectives: Core CSF changes in Alzheimer disease (AD) are decreased amyloid β1–42, increased total tau, and increased phospho-tau, probably indicating amyloid plaque accumulation, axonal degeneration, and tangle pathology, respectively. These biomarkers identify AD already at the predementia stage, but their diagnostic performance might be affected by age-dependent increase of AD-type brain pathology in cognitively unaffected elderly. Methods: We investigated effects of age on the diagnostic performance of CSF biomarkers in a uniquely large multicenter study population, including a cross-sectional cohort of 529 patients with AD dementia (median age 71, range 43–89 years) and 304 controls (67, 44–91 years), and a longitudinal cohort of 750 subjects without dementia with mild cognitive impairment (69, 43–89 years) followed for at least 2 years, or until dementia diagnosis. Results: The specificities for subjects without AD and the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves decreased with age. However, the positive predictive value for a combination of biomarkers remained stable, while the negative predictive value decreased only slightly in old subjects, as an effect of the high AD prevalence in older ages. Conclusion: Although the diagnostic accuracies for AD decreased with age, the predictive values for a combination of biomarkers remained essentially stable. The findings highlight biomarker variability across ages, but support the use of CSF biomarkers for AD even in older populations. PMID:22302554

Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

2017-10-01

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the species level, which will reduce the risk of extinction.

[Human immunodeficiency virus vulnerabilities and related health risk behaviors of out-of-school children of the floating population in Beijing].

PubMed

Ma, Ying-hua; Ding, Su-qin; Wang, Chao

2007-10-18

To explore the vulnerability and related risk behaviors of the out-of-school adolescents floating with their parents from country to city. From September to October in 2005, 260 out-of-school adolescents who were 14 to 20 years old were investigated in our study. The out-of-school adolescents lacked of HIV/AIDS knowledge and life skills, and their psychosocial competence was at a lower level. The adolescents were open-minded to sex, but they were not conscious of using condoms. Attitude towards people with HIV was positively correlated with a well-being family, harmonious relation between their parents, a stable job, knowledge, life skills and psychosocial competence (such as in control of emotions, empathy). Their life skills were positively correlated with their mothers' schooling satisfaction with family income, a stable job, high scores of knowledge, social responsibility,and interpersonal relationship. Competence of HIV/AIDS prevention was positively correlated with schooling, a stable job, knowledge, life skills, and psychosocial competence. Out-of-school adolescents were vulnerable to HIV/AIDS. Individual level intervention combined with structural intervention could effectively reduce their vulnerability. Effective and feasible health education approach to enhance their life skills and psychosocial competence was a key point to health education on HIV/AIDS prevention.

Role of guaifenesin in the management of chronic bronchitis and upper respiratory tract infections.

PubMed

Albrecht, Helmut H; Dicpinigaitis, Peter V; Guenin, Eric P

2017-01-01

Guaifenesin, a mucoactive drug, acts by loosening mucus in the airways and making coughs more productive. It is used for relief of wet cough and chest congestion due to the common cold, and remains the only legally marketed expectorant in the US (per OTC Monograph). An ingredient in numerous over-the-counter (OTC) cough/cold medications, guaifenesin has a secondary indication for use in stable chronic bronchitis (professional indication). Clinical pharmacology and patient studies support the clinical utility of guaifenesin in respiratory conditions where mucus hypersecretion is prevalent: acute upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), stable chronic bronchitis, and possibly rhinosinusitis. Guaifenesin has a well-established and favorable safety and tolerability profile in adult and pediatric populations. Its dosing range (200-400 mg 4-hourly, up to 6× daily) allows flexible dose titration to allow an increase of plasma concentrations. Multiple daily doses are needed to maintain 24-h therapeutic effect with immediate-release formulations. Extended-release guaifenesin tablet formulations are available, providing convenience with 12-hourly dosing and portability compared to liquids. Guaifenesin is considered as a safe and effective expectorant for the treatment of mucus-related symptoms in acute URTIs and stable chronic bronchitis. Its clinical efficacy has been demonstrated most widely in chronic respiratory conditions, where excess mucus production and cough are more stable symptoms. Progress is being made to establish clinical models and measures that are more appropriate for studying symptomatic relief with guaifenesin in acute respiratory infections. This will help generate the up-to-date and high-quality data needed to optimize guaifenesin's effectiveness in established uses, and in new respiratory indications associated with mucus hypersecretion.

Static Structures, Changing Demographics: Educating Teachers for Shifting Populations in Stable Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Portes, Pedro; Smagorinsky, Peter

2010-01-01

Portes and Smagorinsky examine the degree to which stable schools and authoritarian instruction accommodate the needs of learners exhibiting difference, with special attention to Spanish-speaking English Language Learners in a Southern setting. They find that the influx of immigrant students in Southern schools lays bare the normative…

Analyzing the movement of an invasive weevil (Polydrusus sericeus) using stable Isotopes

Treesearch

Joanne Lund; Paula Marquardt; William Jr. Mattson

2010-01-01

To better understand the response of insect populations to increasing CO2 and O3, we used ratios of stable carbon isotopes (d 13C) to trace the movement of an invasive insect in mixed tree communities grown under different air quality conditions. Polydrusus sericeus is a non-native...

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Juvenile Winter Flounder

EPA Science Inventory

Isotopic ratios of fish otoliths have been used in numerous studies as natural tags or markers to aid the study of connectivity among fish populations. We investigated the use of spatial and temporal changes in the stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of otoliths to different...

The impacts of different management strategies and environmental forcing in ecological communities

PubMed Central

Enberg, Katja; Fowler, Mike S; Ranta, Esa

2006-01-01

Understanding the effects of population management on the community a target species belongs to is of key importance for successful management. It is known that the removal or extinction of a single species in a community may lead to extinctions of other community members. In our study, we assess the impacts of population management on competitive communities, studying the response of both locally stable and unstable communities of varying size (between four and 10 species) to three different management strategies; harvesting of a target species, harvesting with non-targeted catch, and stocking of the target species. We also studied the consequences of selecting target species with different relative abundances, as well as the effects of varying environmental conditions. We show here how the effects of management in competitive communities extend far beyond the target population. A crucial role is played by the underlying stability properties of the community under management. In general, locally unstable communities are more vulnerable to perturbation through management. Furthermore, the community response is shown to be sensitive to the relative density of the target species. Of considerable interest is the result that even a small (2.5%) increase in the population size of the target species through stocking may lead to extinction of other community members. These results emphasize the importance of considering and understanding multi-species interactions in population management. PMID:16959640

Boundary effects on population dynamics in stochastic lattice Lotka-Volterra models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiba, Bassel; Chen, Sheng; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

We investigate spatially inhomogeneous versions of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model for predator-prey competition and coexistence by means of Monte Carlo simulations on a two-dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions. To study boundary effects for this paradigmatic population dynamics system, we employ a simulation domain split into two patches: Upon setting the predation rates at two distinct values, one half of the system resides in an absorbing state where only the prey survives, while the other half attains a stable coexistence state wherein both species remain active. At the domain boundary, we observe a marked enhancement of the predator population density. The predator correlation length displays a minimum at the boundary, before reaching its asymptotic constant value deep in the active region. The frequency of the population oscillations appears only very weakly affected by the existence of two distinct domains, in contrast to their attenuation rate, which assumes its largest value there. We also observe that boundary effects become less prominent as the system is successively divided into subdomains in a checkerboard pattern, with two different reaction rates assigned to neighboring patches. When the domain size becomes reduced to the scale of the correlation length, the mean population densities attain values that are very similar to those in a disordered system with randomly assigned reaction rates drawn from a bimodal distribution.

Y-chromosome analysis confirms highly sex-biased dispersal and suggests a low male effective population size in bonobos (Pan paniscus).

PubMed

Eriksson, Jonas; Siedel, Heike; Lukas, Dieter; Kayser, Manfred; Erler, Axel; Hashimoto, Chie; Hohmann, Gottfried; Boesch, Christophe; Vigilant, Linda

2006-04-01

Dispersal is a rare event that is difficult to observe in slowly maturing, long-lived wild animal species such as the bonobo. In this study we used sex-linked (mitochondrial DNA sequence and Y-chromosome microsatellite) markers from the same set of individuals to estimate the magnitude of difference in effective dispersal between the sexes and to investigate the long-term demographic history of bonobos. We sampled 34 males from four distinct geographical areas across the bonobo distribution range. As predicted for a female-dispersing species, we found much higher levels of differentiation among local bonobo populations based upon Y-chromosomal than mtDNA genetic variation. Specifically, almost all of the Y-chromosomal variation distinguished populations, while nearly all of the mtDNA variation was shared between populations. Furthermore, genetic distance correlated with geographical distance for mtDNA but not for the Y chromosome. Female bonobos have a much higher migration rate and/or effective population size as compared to males, and the estimate for the mitochondrial TMRCA (time to most recent common ancestor) was approximately 10 times greater than the estimate for the Y chromosome (410,000 vs. 40,000-45,000). For humans the difference is merely a factor of two, suggesting a more stable demographic history in bonobos in comparison to humans.

Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiaorong; Liao, Huixuan; Peng, Shijia; Peng, Shaolin

2016-12-01

Conventional models for predicting species distribution under global warming scenarios often treat one species as a homogeneous whole. In the present study, we selected Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata), a widely distributed species in China, to investigate the physio-ecological responses of five populations under different temperature regimes. The results demonstrate that increased mean temperatures induce increased growth performance among northern populations, which exhibited the greatest germination capacity and largest increase in the overlap between the growth curve and the monthly average temperature. However,tolerance of the southern population to extremely high temperatures was stronger than among the population from the northern region,shown by the best growth and the most stable photosynthetic system of the southern population under extremely high temperature. This result indicates that the growth advantage among northern populations due to increased mean temperatures may be weakened by lower tolerance to extremely high temperatures. This finding is antithetical to the predicted results. The theoretical coupling model constructed here illustrates that the difference in growth between populations at high and low latitudes and altitudes under global warming will decrease because of the frequent occurrence of extremely high temperatures.

Intergenerational education mobility and depressive symptoms in a population of Mexican origin.

PubMed

Ward, Julia B; Haan, Mary N; Garcia, Maria E; Lee, Anne; To, Tu My; Aiello, Allison E

2016-07-01

Low educational attainment has been associated with depression among Latinos. However, few studies have collected intergenerational data to assess mental health effects of educational mobility across generations. Using data from the Niños Lifestyle and Diabetes Study, we assessed the influence of intergenerational education on depressive symptoms among 603 Mexican-origin individuals. Intergenerational educational mobility was classified: stable-low (low parent and/or low offspring education), upwardly mobile (low parent and/or high offspring education), stable-high (high parent and/or high offspring education), or downwardly mobile (high parent and/or low offspring education). High depressive symptoms were defined as scoring ≥10 on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale-10 (CESD-10). We examined prevalence ratios (PRs) for depressive symptoms with levels of educational mobility. We used general estimating equations with log-binomial models to account for within-family clustering, adjusting for age, gender, and offspring and parent nativity. Compared with stable-low participants, the lowest prevalence of CESD-10 score ≥10 occurred in upwardly mobile (PR = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.39-0.78) and stable-high (PR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.44-0.87) participants. Downwardly mobile participants were also less likely to have a CESD-10 score ≥10 compared with stable-low participants (PR = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.38-1.11), although the estimate was not statistically significant. Sustained stress from low intergenerational education may adversely affect depression. Latinos with stable-low or downwardly mobile intergenerational educational attainment may need closer monitoring for depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cultural innovations and demographic change.

PubMed

Richerson, Peter J; Boyd, Robert; Bettinger, Robert L

2009-04-01

Demography plays a large role in cultural evolution through its effects on the effective rate of innovation. If we assume that useful inventions are rare, then small isolated societies will have low rates of invention. In small populations, complex technology will tend to be lost as a result of random loss or incomplete transmission (the Tasmanian effect). Large populations have more inventors and are more resistant to loss by chance. If human populations can grow freely, then a population-technology-population positive feedback should occur such that human societies reach a stable growth path on which the rate of growth of technology is limited by the rate of invention. This scenario fits the Holocene to a first approximation, but the late Pleistocene is a great puzzle. Large-brained hominins existed in Africa and west Eurasia for perhaps 150,000 years with, at best, slow rates of technical innovation. The most sophisticated societies of the last glacial period appear after 50,000 years ago and were apparently restricted to west and north-central Eurasia and North Africa. These patterns have no simple, commonly accepted explanation. We argue that increased high-frequency climate change around 70,000-50,000 years ago may have tipped the balance between humans and their competitor-predators, such as lions and wolves, in favor of humans. At the same time, technically sophisticated hunters would tend to overharvest their prey. Perhaps the ephemeral appearance of complex tools and symbolic artifacts in Africa after 100,000 years ago resulted from hunting inventions that allowed human populations to expand temporarily before prey overexploitation led to human population and technology collapse. Sustained human populations of moderate size using distinctively advanced Upper Paleolithic artifacts may have existed in west Eurasia because cold, continental northeastern Eurasia-Beringia acted as a protected reserve for prey populations.

Associates of an elevated natriuretic peptide level in stable heart failure patients: implications for targeted management.

PubMed

Jan, Aftab; Dawkins, Ian; Murphy, Niamh; Collier, Patrick; Baugh, John; Ledwidge, Mark; McDonald, Kenneth; Watson, Chris J

2013-01-01

Persistently elevated natriuretic peptide (NP) levels in heart failure (HF) patients are associated with impaired prognosis. Recent work suggests that NP-guided therapy can improve outcome, but the mechanisms behind an elevated BNP remain unclear. Among the potential stimuli for NP in clinically stable patients are persistent occult fluid overload, wall stress, inflammation, fibrosis, and ischemia. The purpose of this study was to identify associates of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in a stable HF population. In a prospective observational study of 179 stable HF patients, the association between BNP and markers of collagen metabolism, inflammation, and Doppler-echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial volume index (LAVI), and E/e prime (E/e') was measured. Univariable associates of elevated BNP were age, LVEF, LAVI, E/e', creatinine, and markers of collagen turnover. In a multiple linear regression model, age, creatinine, and LVEF remained significant associates of BNP. E/e' and markers of collagen turnover had a persistent impact on BNP independent of these covariates. Multiple variables are associated with persistently elevated BNP levels in stable HF patients. Clarification of the relative importance of NP stimuli may help refine NP-guided therapy, potentially improving outcome for this at-risk population.

Local infestation or long-distance migration? The seasonal recolonization of dairy farms by Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) in south central Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Beresford, D V; Sutcliffe, J F

2009-04-01

Stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae) populations in south central Ontario, Canada, first occur on dairy farms in late spring, grow exponentially throughout the summer, and are frozen back each autumn. We examined the extent of overwinter persistence on 22 dairy farms in a 55- by 60-km region north of Lake Ontario that spans four climatic zones. Our overwintering sampling of larval habitat identified three farms located in the southern section of the study region as potential overwintering refugia. Using sticky trap catches to identify the timing of first spring appearance at each farm, we then tested two models of how local farm populations are reestablished annually: 1) stable flies disperse from local climatic refuges and colonize neighboring farms (the local source model); and 2) stable flies are carried into the study region by frontal weather systems (the distant source model). The timing of when stable flies first occurred at these farms supported a local source of dispersing colonists from a small proportion of local refuge farms. We discuss our results in terms of how yearly fluctuation in climate would affect refuge farm density in the region and how this, in turn, would shift the recolonization dynamic. Implications for controlling stable flies also are discussed.

Environmental fluctuations restrict eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator-prey system.

PubMed

Hiltunen, Teppo; Ayan, Gökçe B; Becks, Lutz

2015-06-07

Environmental fluctuations, species interactions and rapid evolution are all predicted to affect community structure and their temporal dynamics. Although the effects of the abiotic environment and prey evolution on ecological community dynamics have been studied separately, these factors can also have interactive effects. Here we used bacteria-ciliate microcosm experiments to test for eco-evolutionary dynamics in fluctuating environments. Specifically, we followed population dynamics and a prey defence trait over time when populations were exposed to regular changes of bottom-up or top-down stressors, or combinations of these. We found that the rate of evolution of a defence trait was significantly lower in fluctuating compared with stable environments, and that the defence trait evolved to lower levels when two environmental stressors changed recurrently. The latter suggests that top-down and bottom-up changes can have additive effects constraining evolutionary response within populations. The differences in evolutionary trajectories are explained by fluctuations in population sizes of the prey and the predator, which continuously alter the supply of mutations in the prey and strength of selection through predation. Thus, it may be necessary to adopt an eco-evolutionary perspective on studies concerning the evolution of traits mediating species interactions. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Does personality in small rodents vary depending on population density?

PubMed

Korpela, Katri; Sundell, Janne; Ylönen, Hannu

2011-01-01

Personality means an individual's unique way of behaving and reacting to the environment. It is a stable and heritable trait, which is expressed consistently in different situations. The aim of our study was to develop novel tests to depict the personality structure of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, and to determine if the phase of the population cycle, i.e. population density, affects personality. We focused on some central aspects of bank vole behaviour: mobility, risk taking, exploratory behaviour, dominance, and aggressive behaviour towards pups. These behaviours were chosen because they directly affect bank vole survival or fitness or are classified as important factors of personality in other species. In total, 192 males from different populations went through four behavioural tests, in which 20 variables were measured. The tests were repeated after 3 weeks, which verified that all traits were stable, i.e. repeatable between trials. Three personality compounds emerged, named extroversion, novelty seeking and infanticide. Extroversion included dominance and mobility, while novelty seeking consisted of risk taking and exploration. Infanticide encompassed all indices measuring harmful behaviour towards pups. Mobility and dominance were connected, possibly because both seem to depend on condition. Time spent in captivity increased extroversion, which may be explained by good food, stable conditions and acclimation to strong social cues. Novelty seeking was connected to repeatability which could mean that novelty avoiding individuals adjust their behaviour to match new environments. Population density affected the infanticide trait but not novelty seeking or extroversion.

The Effect of 9/11 on the Heritability of Political Trust.

PubMed

Ojeda, Christopher

2016-02-01

Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, a rally effect led to a precipitous rise in political trust. However, the increase in political trust concealed a simultaneous decline among a smaller portion of the population. This paper examines the psychological mechanisms underlying these heterogeneous attitudes towards government and shows that a biosocial model best explains the observed patterns of response. The interplay of genetic and environmental factors of political trust reveals the stable but dynamic nature of heritability: genetic influences of political trust increased immediately following 9/11 but quickly decayed to pre-9/11 levels.

The Effect of 9/11 on the Heritability of Political Trust1

PubMed Central

Ojeda, Christopher

2014-01-01

Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, a rally effect led to a precipitous rise in political trust. However, the increase in political trust concealed a simultaneous decline among a smaller portion of the population. This paper examines the psychological mechanisms underlying these heterogeneous attitudes towards government and shows that a biosocial model best explains the observed patterns of response. The interplay of genetic and environmental factors of political trust reveals the stable but dynamic nature of heritability: genetic influences of political trust increased immediately following 9/11 but quickly decayed to pre-9/11 levels. PMID:26843705

Selective predation and productivity jointly drive complex behavior in host-parasite systems.

PubMed

Hall, Spencer R; Duffy, Meghan A; Cáceres, Carla E

2005-01-01

Successful invasion of a parasite into a host population and resulting host-parasite dynamics can depend crucially on other members of a host's community such as predators. We do not fully understand how predation intensity and selectivity shape host-parasite dynamics because the interplay between predator density, predator foraging behavior, and ecosystem productivity remains incompletely explored. By modifying a standard susceptible-infected model, we show how productivity can modulate complex behavior induced by saturating and selective foraging behavior of predators in an otherwise stable host-parasite system. When predators strongly prefer parasitized hosts, the host-parasite system can oscillate, but predators can also create alternative stable states, Allee effects, and catastrophic extinction of parasites. In the latter three cases, parasites have difficulty invading and/or persisting in ecosystems. When predators are intermediately selective, these more complex behaviors become less important, but the host-parasite system can switch from stable to oscillating and then back to stable states along a gradient of predator control. Surprisingly, at higher productivity, predators that neutrally select or avoid parasitized hosts can catalyze extinction of both hosts and parasites. Thus, synergy between two enemies can end disastrously for the host. Such diverse outcomes underscore the crucial importance of the community and ecosystem context in which host-parasite interactions occur.

Diel CO2 cycles reduce severity of behavioural abnormalities in coral reef fish under ocean acidification.

PubMed

Jarrold, Michael D; Humphrey, Craig; McCormick, Mark I; Munday, Philip L

2017-08-31

Elevated CO 2 levels associated with ocean acidification (OA) have been shown to alter behavioural responses in coral reef fishes. However, all studies to date have used stable pCO 2 treatments, not considering the substantial diel pCO 2 variation that occurs in shallow reef habitats. Here, we reared juvenile damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, and clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at stable and diel cycling pCO 2 treatments in two experiments. As expected, absolute lateralization of A. polyacanthus and response to predator cue of Am. percula were negatively affected in fish reared at stable, elevated pCO 2 in both experiments. However, diel pCO 2 fluctuations reduced the negative effects of OA on behaviour. Importantly, in experiment two, behavioural abnormalities that were present in fish reared at stable 750 µatm CO 2 were largely absent in fish reared at 750 ± 300 µatm CO 2 . Overall, we show that diel pCO 2 cycles can substantially reduce the severity of behavioural abnormalities caused by elevated CO 2 . Thus, past studies may have over-estimated the impacts of OA on the behavioural performance of coral reef fishes. Furthermore, our results suggest that diel pCO 2 cycles will delay the onset of behavioural abnormalities in natural populations.

Development of anxiety, depression and health-related quality of life in oncology patients without initial symptoms according to the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale - a comparative study.

PubMed

Thalén-Lindström, Annika; Glimelius, Bengt; Johansson, Birgitta

2017-08-01

Depression and anxiety are associated with decreased health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The knowledge about the development of anxiety, depression and HRQoL in cancer patients without depression or anxiety, that is initially scoring as non-cases (cutoff <8) according to the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), is sparse. The objectives were: (1) to evaluate changes in anxiety, depression and HRQoL over 6 months in two independent cohorts of oncology patients initially scoring as non-cases by the HADS, (2) to compare stable non-case patients with the general population regarding HRQoL and (3) to explore the outcomes using >4 rather than >7 as cutoff on any of HADS subscales. The study group (SG) included 245 and the validation group (VG), a previous cohort, included 281 non-cases. Patients who were non-cases (HADS <8) at all completed assessments were categorized as stable non-cases (stable-NC); those who were doubtful/clinical cases (HADS >7) in at least one follow-up were categorized as unstable-NC. Questionnaires were completed at baseline, and after 1, 3 and 6 months. Age- and sex-matched EORTC QLQ-C30 data from the general population were used for HRQoL comparisons. One hundred ninety-six (80%) SG and 244 (87%) VG patients were stable-NC and 49 (20%) SG and 37 (13%) VG patients were unstable-NC. SG and VG were similar in all outcomes. Anxiety, depression and HRQoL deteriorated over 6 months for unstable-NC (p < .05). HRQoL for stable-NC was comparable to that in the general population. If >4 had been used as cutoff, most unstable-NC (36/49 and 25/37, respectively) would have been identified at baseline. Most non-cases are stable-NC with a high stable HRQoL, indicating no need for re-assessment. A minority develop anxiety or depression symptoms and impaired HRQoL; for these a cutoff >4 rather than >7 on HADS subscales may be useful for early detection.

Kit fox population trends at the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kato, T.T.; Scrivner, J.H.; Warrick, G.

The San Joaquin kit fox was listed as an endangered subspecies following passage of the Endangered Species Protection Act of 1966, and further classified as rare under the California Endangered Species Act of 1970. The San Joaquin kit fox occurs on the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California administered by the Department of Energy (DOE). A long term kit fox population monitoring program was initiated as part of DOE's mitigation strategy to comply with the Endangered Species Act. In addition to monitoring kit fox populations, the program includes assessments of kit fox prey density and assessments of predator abundance. The objectivesmore » of this study were to: describe the long term changes in the kit fox population on the Reserves and assess the roles of coyotes and lagomorphs in kit fox population dynamics. When the fox population on NPR-1 declined between 1980 and 1984, it appeared to have been negatively impacted by a declining prey base (lagomorphs) and an increasing coyote population. Declining lagomorph densities may have been a more important factor because as coyote numbers declined between 1985 and 1990, the kit fox population remained stable. The fox population on NPR-2 remained at a higher and more stable level than the population on NPR-1. The factors determining the higher densities and greater stability of the fox population on NPR-2 are unknown.« less

Geologic events coupled with Pleistocene climatic oscillations drove genetic variation of Omei treefrog (Rhacophorus omeimontis) in southern China.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Zhao, Mian; Wei, Shichao; Luo, Zhenhua; Wu, Hua

2015-12-21

Pleistocene climatic oscillations and historical geological events may both influence current patterns of genetic variation, and the species in southern China that faced unique climatic and topographical events have complex evolutionary histories. However, the relative contributions of climatic oscillations and geographical events to the genetic variation of these species remain undetermined. To investigate patterns of genetic variation and to test the hypotheses about the factors that shaped the distribution of this genetic variation in species of southern China, mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nine microsatellite loci of the Omei tree frog (Rhacophorus omeimontis) were amplified in this study. The genetic diversity in the populations of R. omeimontis was high. The phylogenetic trees reconstructed from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes and the Bayesian genetic clustering analysis based on microsatellite data both revealed that all populations were divided into three lineages (SC, HG and YN). The two most recent splitting events among the lineages coincided with recent geological events (including the intense uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, QTP and the subsequent movements of the Yun-Gui Plateau, YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations. Significant expansion signals were not detected in mismatch analyses or neutrality tests. And the effective population size of each lineage was stable during the Pleistocene. Based on the results of this study, complex geological events (the recent dramatic uplift of the QTP and the subsequent movements of the YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations were apparent drivers of the rapid divergence of the R. omeimontis lineages. Each diverged lineages survived in situ with limited gene exchanges, and the stable demographics of lineages indicate that the Pleistocene climatic oscillations were inconsequential for this species. The analysis of genetic variation in populations of R. omeimontis contributes to the understanding of the effects of changes in climate and of geographical events on the dynamic development of contemporary patterns of genetic variation in the species of southern China.

Serum apolipoprotein A-1 quantification by LC–MS with a SILAC internal standard reveals reduced levels in smokers

PubMed Central

Wang, Qingqing; Zhang, Suhong; Guo, Lili; Busch, Christine M; Jian, Wenying; Weng, Naidong; Snyder, Nathaniel W; Rangiah, Kannan; Mesaros, Clementina; Blair, Ian A

2015-01-01

Background: Absolute quantification of protein biomarkers such as serum apolipoprotein A1 by both immunoassays and LC–MS can provide misleading results. Results: Recombinant ApoA-1 internal standard was prepared using stable isotope labeling by amino acids in cell culture with [13C615N2]-lysine and [13C915N1]-tyrosine in human cells. A stable isotope dilution LC–MS method for serum ApoA-1 was validated and levels analyzed for 50 nonsmokers and 50 smokers. Conclusion: The concentration of ApoA-1 in nonsmokers was 169.4 mg/dl with an 18.4% reduction to 138.2 mg/dl in smokers. The validated assay will have clinical utility for assessing effects of smoking cessation and therapeutic or dietary interventions in high-risk populations. PMID:26394123

Experimental demonstration of a two-phase population extinction hazard

PubMed Central

Drake, John M.; Shapiro, Jeff; Griffen, Blaine D.

2011-01-01

Population extinction is a fundamental biological process with applications to ecology, epidemiology, immunology, conservation biology and genetics. Although a monotonic relationship between initial population size and mean extinction time is predicted by virtually all theoretical models, attempts at empirical demonstration have been equivocal. We suggest that this anomaly is best explained with reference to the transient properties of ensembles of populations. Specifically, we submit that under experimental conditions, many populations escape their initially vulnerable state to reach quasi-stationarity, where effects of initial conditions are erased. Thus, extinction of populations initialized far from quasi-stationarity may be exposed to a two-phase extinction hazard. An empirical prediction of this theory is that the fit Cox proportional hazards regression model for the observed survival time distribution of a group of populations will be shown to violate the proportional hazards assumption early in the experiment, but not at later times. We report results of two experiments with the cladoceran zooplankton Daphnia magna designed to exhibit this phenomenon. In one experiment, habitat size was also varied. Statistical analysis showed that in one of these experiments a transformation occurred so that very early in the experiment there existed a transient phase during which the extinction hazard was primarily owing to the initial population size, and that this was gradually replaced by a more stable quasi-stationary phase. In the second experiment, only habitat size unambiguously displayed an effect. Analysis of data pooled from both experiments suggests that the overall extinction time distribution in this system results from the mixture of extinctions during the initial rapid phase, during which the effects of initial population size can be considerable, and a longer quasi-stationary phase, during which only habitat size has an effect. These are the first results, to our knowledge, of a two-phase population extinction process. PMID:21429907

The effect of recombinant bone morphogenetic protein-2 in revision tibiotalocalcaneal arthrodesis: utilization of the Retrograde Arthrodesis Intramedullary Nail database.

PubMed

DeVries, J George; Nguyen, Minh; Berlet, Gregory C; Hyer, Christopher F

2012-01-01

The use of bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2) has been recommended for high-risk fusions and nonunion. Patients undergoing revisional tibiotalocalcaneal (TTC) arthrodesis via a retrograde arthrodesis nail to evaluate the influence of BMP-2 on rate of fusion in this high-risk population are presented. A retrospective chart and radiographic review were performed on 23 patients with failed prior fusion attempts at the ankle treated with retrograde intramedullary nailing. Sixteen patients were treated without BMP-2 (None group) and 7 were treated with BMP-2 (BMP group). The primary and secondary end-points were successful fusion, and time to fusion, respectively, with a variety of variables evaluated for influence. Other than the use of BMP-2, there were no statistical differences in the patient population. Overall, 11 of 16 ankles (68.8%) in the None group and 5 of 7 ankles (71.4%) in the BMP group resulted in a stable, functional limb. Rate of complication was similar between the 2 groups (p > .05). Time to radiographic ankle union was 115.2 and 184.0 days in the None and BMP groups (p > .05). The effect of BMP-2 on revisional TTC fusions with retrograde nails is reported here. The overall result as a stable, functional limb was 69.6%, which suggests that revision surgery in this high-risk population is a reasonable consideration. Even though this study was unable to demonstrate statistically significant differences, biologic augmentation with BMP-2 did not increase the complication rate and showed a slightly enhanced salvage rate for revision TTC fusions with an intramedullary nail. Copyright © 2012 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ancestral populations perform better in a novel environment: domestication of medfly populations from five global regions

PubMed Central

Diamantidis, Alexandros D.; Carey, James R.; Nakas, Christos T.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.

2010-01-01

Geographically isolated populations of a species may differ in several aspects of life-history, morphology, behavior, and genetic structure as a result of adaptation in ecologically diverse habitats. We used a global invasive species, the Mediterranean fruit fly to investigate, whether adaptation to a novel environment differs among geographically isolated populations that vary in major life history components such as life span and reproduction. We used wild populations from five global regions (Kenya, Hawaii, Guatemala, Portugal, and Greece). Adult demographic traits were monitored in F2, F5, F7 and F9 generations in captivity. Although domestication in constant laboratory conditions had a different effect on the mortality and reproductive rates of the different populations, a general trend of decreasing life span and age of first reproduction was observed for most medfly populations tested. However, taking into account longevity of both sexes, age-specific reproductive schedules, and average reproductive rates we found that the ancestral Kenyan population kept the above life history traits stable during domestication compared to the other populations tested. These findings provide important insights in the life-history evolution of this model species, and suggest that ancestral medfly populations perform better than the derived – invasive ones in a novel environment. PMID:21278856

Developing the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0

PubMed Central

Chatterji, Somnath; Kostanjsek, Nenad; Rehm, Jürgen; Kennedy, Cille; Epping-Jordan, Joanne; Saxena, Shekhar; von Korff, Michael; Pull, Charles

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective To describe the development of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) for measuring functioning and disability in accordance with the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. WHODAS 2.0 is a standard metric for ensuring scientific comparability across different populations. Methods A series of studies was carried out globally. Over 65 000 respondents drawn from the general population and from specific patient populations were interviewed by trained interviewers who applied the WHODAS 2.0 (with 36 items in its full version and 12 items in a shortened version). Findings The WHODAS 2.0 was found to have high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha, α: 0.86), a stable factor structure; high test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.98); good concurrent validity in patient classification when compared with other recognized disability measurement instruments; conformity to Rasch scaling properties across populations, and good responsiveness (i.e. sensitivity to change). Effect sizes ranged from 0.44 to 1.38 for different health interventions targeting various health conditions. Conclusion The WHODAS 2.0 meets the need for a robust instrument that can be easily administered to measure the impact of health conditions, monitor the effectiveness of interventions and estimate the burden of both mental and physical disorders across different populations. PMID:21076562

Demographic history of an elusive carnivore: using museums to inform management

PubMed Central

Holbrook, Joseph D; DeYoung, Randy W; Tewes, Michael E; Young, John H

2012-01-01

Elusive carnivores present a challenge to managers because traditional survey methods are not suitable. We applied a genetic approach using museum specimens to examine how historical and recent conditions influenced the demographic history of Puma concolor in western and southern Texas, USA. We used 10 microsatellite loci and indexed population trends by estimating historical and recent genetic diversity, genetic differentiation and effective population size. Mountain lions in southern Texas exhibited a 9% decline in genetic diversity, whereas diversity remained stable in western Texas. Genetic differentiation between western and southern Texas was minimal historically (FST = 0.04, P < 0.01), but increased 2–2.5 times in our recent sample. An index of genetic drift for southern Texas was seven to eight times that of western Texas, presumably contributing to the current differentiation between western and southern Texas. Furthermore, southern Texas exhibited a >50% temporal decline in effective population size, whereas western Texas showed no change. Our results illustrate that population declines and genetic drift have occurred in southern Texas, likely because of contemporary habitat loss and predator control. Population monitoring may be needed to ensure the persistence of mountain lions in the southern Texas region. This study highlights the utility of sampling museum collections to examine demographic histories and inform wildlife management. PMID:23028402

Genetic diversity and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum over space and time in an African archipelago.

PubMed

Salgueiro, Patrícia; Vicente, José Luís; Figueiredo, Rita Carrilho; Pinto, João

2016-09-01

The archipelago of São Tomé and Principe (STP), West Africa, has suffered the heavy burden of malaria since the 16th century. Until the last decade, when after a successful control program STP has become a low transmission country and one of the few nations with decreases of more than 90% in malaria admission and death rates. We carried out a longitudinal study to determine the genetic structure of STP parasite populations over time and space. Twelve microsatellite loci were genotyped in Plasmodium falciparum samples from two islands collected in 1997, 2000 and 2004. Analysis was performed on proportions of mixed genotype infections, allelic diversity, population differentiation, effective population size and bottleneck effects. We have found high levels of genetic diversity and minimal inter-population genetic differentiation typical of African continental regions with intense and stable malaria transmission. We detected significant differences between the years, with special emphasis for 1997 that showed the highest proportion of samples infected with P. falciparum and the highest mean number of haplotypes per isolate. This study establishes a comprehensive genetic data baseline of a pre-intervention scenario for future studies; taking into account the most recent and successful control intervention on the territory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship between exploitation, oscillation, MSY and extinction.

PubMed

Ghosh, Bapan; Kar, T K; Legovic, T

2014-10-01

We give answers to two important problems arising in current fisheries: (i) how maximum sustainable yield (MSY) policy is influenced by the initial population level, and (ii) how harvesting, oscillation and MSY are related to each other in prey-predator systems. To examine the impact of initial population on exploitation, we analyze a single species model with strong Allee effect. It is found that even when the MSY exists, the dynamic solution may not converge to the equilibrium stock if the initial population level is higher but near the critical threshold level. In a prey-predator system with Allee effect in the prey species, the initial population does not have such important impact neither on MSY nor on maximum sustainable total yield (MSTY). However, harvesting the top predator may cause extinction of all species if odd number of trophic levels exist in the ecosystem. With regard to the second problem, we study two prey-predator models and establish that increasing harvesting effort either on prey, predator or both prey and predator destroys previously existing oscillation. Moreover, equilibrium stock both at MSY and MSTY level is stable. We also discuss the validity of found results to other prey-predator systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genomic Consequences of Population Decline in the Endangered Florida Scrub-Jay.

PubMed

Chen, Nancy; Cosgrove, Elissa J; Bowman, Reed; Fitzpatrick, John W; Clark, Andrew G

2016-11-07

Understanding the population genetic consequences of declining population size is important for conserving the many species worldwide facing severe decline [1]. Thorough empirical studies on the impacts of population reduction at a genome-wide scale in the wild are scarce because they demand huge field and laboratory investments [1, 2]. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of gene flow in introducing genetic variation to small populations [3], but few have documented both genetic and fitness consequences of decreased immigration through time in a natural population [4-6]. Here we assess temporal variation in gene flow, inbreeding, and fitness using longitudinal genomic, demographic, and phenotypic data from a long-studied population of federally Threatened Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). We exhaustively sampled and genotyped the study population over two decades, providing one of the most detailed longitudinal investigations of genetics in a wild animal population to date. Immigrants were less heterozygous than residents but still introduced genetic variation into our study population. Owing to regional population declines, immigration into the study population declined from 1995-2013, resulting in increased levels of inbreeding and reduced fitness via inbreeding depression, even as the population remained demographically stable. Our results show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, small peripheral populations that already have undergone a genetic bottleneck may play a vital role in preserving genetic diversity of larger and seemingly stable populations. These findings underscore the importance of investing in the persistence of small populations and maintaining population connectivity in conservation of fragmented species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution, seasonality and trap preference of stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans L. (Diptera: Muscidae), adults on a 12-hectare zoological park

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although this study was originally designed to compare the efficacy of 2 different stable fly traps within 10 sites at a 12-ha zoological park, seasonal and spatial population distribution data were simultaneously collected. The two traps included an Alsynite fiberglass cylindrical trap (AFT) and a...

Bird migration and avian influenza: a comparison of hydrogen stable isotopes and satellite tracking methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridge, Eli S.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Xiao, Xiangming; Takekawa, John Y.; Hill, Nichola J.; Yamage, Mat; Haque, Enam Ul; Islam, Mohammad Anwarul; Mundkur, Taej; Yavuz, Kiraz Erciyas; Leader, Paul; Leung, Connie Y.H.; Smith, Bena; Spragens, Kyle A.; Vandegrift, Kurt J.; Hosseini, Parviez R.; Saif, Samia; Mohsanin, Samiul; Mikolon, Andrea; Islam, Ausrafal; George, Acty; Sivananinthaperumal, Balachandran; Daszak, Peter; Newman, Scott H.

2014-01-01

Satellite-based tracking of migratory waterfowl is an important tool for understanding the potential role of wild birds in the long-distance transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza. However, employing this technique on a continental scale is prohibitively expensive. This study explores the utility of stable isotope ratios in feathers in examining both the distances traveled by migratory birds and variation in migration behavior. We compared the satellite-derived movement data of 22 ducks from 8 species captured at wintering areas in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Hong Kong with deuterium ratios (δD) in the feathers of these and other individuals captured at the same locations. We derived likely molting locations from the satellite tracking data and generated expected isotope ratios based on an interpolated map of δD in rainwater. Although δD was correlated with the distance between wintering and molting locations, surprisingly, measured δD values were not correlated with either expected values or latitudes of molting sites. However, population-level parameters derived from the satellite-tracking data, such as mean distance between wintering and molting locations and variation in migration distance, were reflected by means and variation of the stable isotope values. Our findings call into question the relevance of the rainfall isotope map for Asia for linking feather isotopes to molting locations, and underscore the need for extensive ground truthing in the form of feather-based isoscapes. Nevertheless, stable isotopes from feathers could inform disease models by characterizing the degree to which regional breeding populations interact at common wintering locations. Feather isotopes also could aid in surveying wintering locations to determine where high-resolution tracking techniques (e.g. satellite tracking) could most effectively be employed. Moreover, intrinsic markers such as stable isotopes offer the only means of inferring movement information from birds that have died as a result of infection. In the absence of feather based-isoscapes, we recommend a combination of isotope analysis and satellite-tracking as the best means of generating aggregate movement data for informing disease models.

Drought-tolerant QTL qVDT11 leads to stable tiller formation under drought stress conditions in rice.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Heon; Hur, Yeon-Jae; Han, Sang-Ik; Cho, Jun-Hyun; Kim, Kyung-Min; Lee, Jong-Hee; Song, You-Chun; Kwon, Yeong-Up; Shin, Dongjin

2017-03-01

Drought is an important limiting factor for rice production, but the genetic mechanisms of drought tolerance is poorly understood. Here, we screened 218 rice varieties to identify 32 drought-tolerant varieties. The variety Samgang exhibited strong drought tolerance and stable yield in rain-fed conditions and was selected for further study. To identify QTLs for drought tolerance, we examined visual drought tolerance (VDT) and relative water content (RWC) phenotypes in a doubled haploid (DH) population of 101 individuals derived from a cross between Samgang and Nagdong (a drought-sensitive variety). Three QTLs from Samgang were identified for VDT and explained 41.8% of the phenotypic variance. In particular, qVDT11 contributed 20.3% of the phenotypic variance for RWC. To determine QTL effects on drought tolerance in rain-fed paddy conditions, seven DH lines were selected according to the number of QTLs they contained. Of the drought-tolerance-associated QTLs, qVDT2 and qVDT6 did not affect tiller formation, but qVDT11 increased tiller number. Tiller formation was most stable when qVDT2 and qVDT11 were combined. DH lines with both of these drought-tolerance-associated QTLs exhibited the most stable tiller formation. Together, these results suggest that qVDT11 is important for drought tolerance and stable tiller formation in rain-fed paddy fields. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

No strategy is evolutionarily stable in the repeated prisoner's dilemma.

PubMed

Lorberbaum, J

1994-05-21

Following the influential work of Axelrod, the repeated Prisoner's Dilemma game has become the theoretical gold standard for understanding the evolution of co-operative behavior among unrelated individuals. Using the game, several authors have found that a reciprocal strategy known as Tit for Tat (TFT) has done quite well in a wide range of environments. TFT strategists start out co-operating and then do what the other player did on the previous move. Despite the success of TFT and similar strategies in experimental studies of the game, Boyd & Lorberbaum (1987, Nature, Lond. 327, 58) have shown that no pure strategy, including TFT, is evolutionarily stable in the sense that each can be invaded by the joint effect of two invading strategies when long-term interaction occurs in the repeated game and future moves are discounted. Farrell & Ware (1989, Theor. Popul. Biol. 36, 161) have since extended these results to include finite mixes of pure strategies as well. Here, it is proven that no strategy is evolutionarily stable when long-term relationships are maintained in the repeated Prisoner's Dilemma and future moves are discounted. Namely, it is shown each completely probabilistic strategy (i.e. one that both co-operates and defects with positive probability after every sequence of behavior) may be invaded by a single deviant strategy. This completes the proof started by Boyd and Lorberbaum and extended by Farrell and Ware. This paper goes on to prove that no reactive strategy with a memory restricted to the opponent's preceding move is evolutionarily stable when there is no discounting of future moves. This is true despite the success of a more forgiving variant of TFT called GTFT in a recent tournament among reactive strategies conducted by Nowak & Sigmund (1992, Nature 355, 250) where future moves were not discounted. GTFT, for example, may be invaded by a pair of reactive mutants. Since no strategy is evolutionarily stable when future moves are discounted in the repeated game, the restriction of strategy types to those actually maintained by mutation and phenotypic and environmental variability in natural populations may be the key to understanding the evolution of co-operation. However, the result presented here that the somewhat realistic reactive strategies are also not evolutionarily stable at least in the non-discounted game suggests something else may be going on. For one, the proof that no reactive strategy is evolutionarily stable ironically shows the robustness of TFT-like strategies.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

No population genetic structure in a widespread aquatic songbird from the Neotropics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cadena, Carlos Daniel; Gutierrez-Pinto, Natalia; Davila, Nicolas; Chesser, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Neotropical lowland organisms often show marked population genetic structure, suggesting restricted migration among populations. However, most phylogeographic studies have focused on species inhabiting humid forest interior. Little attention has been devoted to the study of species with ecologies conducive to dispersal, such as those of more open and variable environments associated with watercourses. Using mtDNA sequences, we examined patterns of genetic variation in a widely distributed Neotropical songbird of aquatic environments, the Yellow-hooded Blackbird (Icteridae, Chrysomus icterocephalus). In contrast to many forest species, Yellow-hooded Blackbirds showed no detectable genetic structure across their range, which includes lowland populations on both sides of the Andes, much of northeastern South America, Amazonia, as well as a phenotypically distinct highland population in Colombia. A coalescent-based analysis of the species indicated that its effective population size has increased considerably, suggesting a range expansion. Our results support the hypothesis that species occurring in open habitats and tracking temporally dynamic environments should show increased dispersal propensities (hence gene flow) relative to species from closed and more stable environments. The phenotypic and behavioral variation among populations of our study species appears to have arisen recently and perhaps in the face of gene flow.

Hydra effects in stable communities and their implications for system dynamics.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Abrams, Peter A

2016-05-01

A hydra effect occurs when the mean density of a species increases in response to greater mortality. We show that, in a stable multispecies system, a species exhibits a hydra effect only if maintaining that species at its equilibrium density destabilizes the system. The stability of the original system is due to the responses of the hydra-effect species to changes in the other species' densities. If that dynamical feedback is removed by fixing the density of the hydra-effect species, large changes in the community make-up (including the possibility of species extinction) can occur. This general result has several implications: (1) Hydra effects occur in a much wider variety of species and interaction webs than has previously been described, and may occur for multiple species, even in small webs; (2) conditions for hydra effects caused by predators (or diseases) often differ from those caused by other mortality factors; (3) introducing a specialist or a switching predator of a hydra-effect species often causes large changes in the community, which frequently involve extinction of other species; (4) harvest policies that attempt to maintain a constant density of a hydra-effect species may be difficult to implement, and, if successful, are likely to cause large changes in the densities of other species; and (5) trophic cascades and other indirect effects caused by predators of hydra-effect species can exhibit amplification of effects or unexpected directions of change. Although we concentrate on systems that are originally stable and models with no stage-structure or trait variation, the generality of our result suggests that similar responses to mortality will occur in many systems without these simplifying assumptions. In addition, while hydra effects are defined as responses to altered mortality, they also imply counterintuitive responses to changes in immigration and other parameters affecting population growth.

Life history and viability of a long-lived marine invertebrate: the octocoral Paramuricea clavata.

PubMed

Linares, Cristina; Doak, Daniel F; Coma, Rafel; Díaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

2007-04-01

The red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata is a long-lived, slow-growing sessile invertebrate of ecological and conservation importance in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. We develop a series of size-based matrix models for two Paramuricea clavata populations. These models were used to estimate basic life history traits for this species and to evaluate the viability of the red gorgonian populations we studied. As for many other slow-growing species, sensitivity and elasticity analysis demonstrate that gorgonian population growth is far more sensitive to changes in survival rates than to growth, shrinkage, or reproductive rates. The slow growth and low mortality of red gorgonians results in low damping ratios, indicating slow convergence to stable size structures (at least 50 years). The stable distributions predicted by the model did not differ from the observed ones. However, our simulations point out the fragility of this species, showing both populations in decline and high risk of extinction over moderate time horizons. These declines appear to be related to a recent increase in anthropogenic disturbances. Relative to their life span, the values of recruitment elasticity for Paramuricea clavata are lower than those reported for other marine organisms but are similar to those reported for some long-lived plants. These values and the delayed age of sexual maturity, in combination with the longevity of the species, show a clear fecundity/mortality trade-off. Full demographic studies of sessile marine species are quite scarce but can provide insight into population dynamics and life history patterns for these difficult and under-studied species. While our work shows clear results for the red gorgonian, the variability in some of our estimates suggest that future work should include data collection over longer temporal and spatial scales to better understand the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on red gorgonian populations.

[Hierarchical regionalization for spatial epidemiology: a case study of thyroid cancer incidence in Yiwu, Zhejiang].

PubMed

Teng, Shizhu; Jia, Qiaojuan; Huang, Yijian; Chen, Liangcao; Fei, Xufeng; Wu, Jiaping

2015-10-01

Sporadic cases occurring in mall geographic unit could lead to extreme value of incidence due to the small population bases, which would influence the analysis of actual incidence. This study introduced a method of hierarchy clustering and partitioning regionalization, which integrates areas with small population into larger areas with enough population by using Geographic Information System (GIS) based on the principles of spatial continuity and geographical similarity (homogeneity test). This method was applied in spatial epidemiology by using a data set of thyroid cancer incidence in Yiwu, Zhejiang province, between 2010 and 2013. Thyroid cancer incidence data were more reliable and stable in the new regionalized areas. Hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord) on the incidence in new areas indicated that there was obvious case clustering in the central area of Yiwu. This method can effectively solve the problem of small population base in small geographic units in spatial epidemiological analysis of thyroid cancer incidence and can be used for other diseases and in other areas.

Anomalous finite-size effects in the Battle of the Sexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, J.; Reichenbach, T.; Frey, E.

2008-06-01

The Battle of the Sexes describes asymmetric conflicts in mating behavior of males and females. Males can be philanderer or faithful, while females are either fast or coy, leading to a cyclic dynamics. The adjusted replicator equation predicts stable coexistence of all four strategies. In this situation, we consider the effects of fluctuations stemming from a finite population size. We show that they unavoidably lead to extinction of two strategies in the population. However, the typical time until extinction occurs strongly prolongs with increasing system size. In the emerging time window, a quasi-stationary probability distribution forms that is anomalously flat in the vicinity of the coexistence state. This behavior originates in a vanishing linear deterministic drift near the fixed point. We provide numerical data as well as an analytical approach to the mean extinction time and the quasi-stationary probability distribution.

A Locust Phase Change Model with Multiple Switching States and Random Perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Changcheng; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.; Qin, Wenjie

2016-12-01

Insects such as locusts and some moths can transform from a solitarious phase when they remain in loose populations and a gregarious phase, when they may swarm. Therefore, the key to effective management of outbreaks of species such as the desert locust Schistocercagregaria is early detection of when they are in the threshold state between the two phases, followed by timely control of their hopper stages before they fledge because the control of flying adult swarms is costly and often ineffective. Definitions of gregarization thresholds should assist preventive control measures and avoid treatment of areas that might not lead to gregarization. In order to better understand the effects of the threshold density which represents the gregarization threshold on the outbreak of a locust population, we developed a model of a discrete switching system. The proposed model allows us to address: (1) How frequently switching occurs from solitarious to gregarious phases and vice versa; (2) When do stable switching transients occur, the existence of which indicate that solutions with larger amplitudes can switch to a stable attractor with a value less than the switching threshold density?; and (3) How does random perturbation influence the switching pattern? Our results show that both subsystems have refuge equilibrium points, outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria. Further, the outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria can coexist for a wide range of parameters and can switch from one to another. This type of switching is sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate and the initial values of the locust population, and may result in locust population outbreaks and phase switching once a small perturbation occurs. Moreover, the simulation results indicate that the switching transient patterns become identical after some generations, suggesting that the evolving process of the perturbation system is not related to the initial value after some fixed number of generations for the same stochastic processes. However, the switching frequency and outbreak patterns can be significantly affected by the intensity of noise and the intrinsic growth rate of the locust population.

Effects of increased discharge on spawning and age-0 recruitment of rainbow trout in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Avery, Luke A.; Korman, Josh; Persons, William R.

2015-01-01

Negative interactions of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss with endangered Humpback Chub Gila cypha pose challenges to the operation of Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) to manage for both species in the Colorado River. Operations to enhance the Rainbow Trout tailwater fishery may lead to an increase in downstream movement of the trout to areas where they are likely to interact with Humpback Chub. We evaluated the effects of dam operations on age-0 Rainbow Trout in the tailwater fishery to inform managers about how GCD operations could benefit a tailwater fishery for Rainbow Trout; although this could affect a Humpback Chub population farther downstream. A near year-long increase in discharge at GCD in 2011 enabled us to evaluate whether high and stable flows led to increased spawning and production of age-0 Rainbow Trout compared with other years. Rainbow Trout spawning was monitored by fitting a model to observed redd counts to estimate the number of redds created over a spawning season. Data collected during electrofishing trips in July–September and November were used to acquire age-0 trout population and mortality rate estimates. We found that high and stable flows in 2011 resulted in 3,062 redds (1.7 times the mean of all survey years) and a population estimate of 686,000 age-0 Rainbow Trout (second highest on record). Despite high initial abundance, mortality remained low through the year (0.0043%/d) resulting in significant recruitment with a record high November population estimate of 214,000 age-0 Rainbow Trout. Recent monitoring indicates this recruitment event was followed by an increase in downstream migration, which may lead to increased interactions with downstream populations of Humpback Chub. Consequently, while our results indicate that manipulating flow at GCD can be used to manage Rainbow Trout spawning and recruitment, fisheries managers should use flow manipulation in moderation to minimize downstream migration in order to reduce negative interactions with other species in the Colorado River.

Long-term ecology of euglossine orchid-bees (Apidae: Euglossini) in Panama.

PubMed

Roubik, D W; Ackerman, J D

1987-09-01

Abundance patterns during 6-7 years and orchid visitation were determined for 51 species of the 57 local euglossine bees. Male bees were counted at 3 chemical attractants presented in the same manner each month. Sites were separated by 75 km but included wet Atlantic forest at 500 m elevation, moist forest at 180 m near Barro Colorado Island, and cloud forest at 900 m near the Pacific ocean. 1. From 15 to 30 euglossine species of 4 genera were active in each month and site; monthly species number and general bee abundance were positively correlated. Many species had 3 annual abundance peaks (range 1-4) and were active throughout the year, but peak annual abundances rarely occurred during late wet or early dry seasons. In contrast, Eufriesea generally were present as adults only 1-2 months in a year. 2. Euglossine populations were exceptionally stable. Species at each site were more stable than any known insect population, and stability and abundance were positively associated. However, year-to-year population stability and the degree of seasonality were not correlated. Among the three sites, the more diverse (species rich) bee assemblages displayed lower stability; these were the wetter and upland sites. 3. The most abundant bees visited more orchid species. Eg. and El. each visited and average of 4 orchid species (range 0-13); Ex. and Ef. visited 0-3. Stable populations did not visit more or fewer orchid species than did unstable populations. 4. Less than 68% of species at each site visited orchid flowers; less than a few dozen of the 100-800 bees counted in a day carried orchid pollinaria. Over 20% of the euglossine species never were seen with pollinaria at any site and probably seldom visit orchids in central Panama. 5. Most bee species visited 1 or no fragrance orchids in a given habitat. Orchids tended to utilize common pollinators that seldom included more than 1 species, and they utilized stable or unstable, seasonal or aseasonal bees. However, the most stable and abundant bee, Eg. imperialis, rarely pollinated orchids; fewer than 10 of ca. 20000 bees carried pollinaria. 6. Orchids may interact primarily with discrete seasonal bee population peaks-probably the emerging adults. Although specialized orchid preferences are implicated for species that visit few or no local orchids but pollinate other species and carry pollinaria in other areas, euglossine bees do not need orchids to survive or reproduce.

Why Excess Immigration Damages the Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Population-Environment Balance

1992-01-01

Explores the relationship between excessive immigration and environmental degradation. Explains the position that a stable United States population size is essential in prevention further deterioration of the natural resource base. Maintains that balancing immigration and emigration will be instrumental in balancing population with environment.…

Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2014-01-01

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

[Population change and social organization].

PubMed

Tu, J C

1986-06-01

This paper, published in Taiwan in June, 1986, studies the impact of demographic changes on social organization through stable population theory as applied to the USA. The stable population model indicates a constant age differential between death ratio and birth ratio maintained for a period of time in a given population. Since the 1950's, the population growth rate in the US has been 1.5%; social security tax revenue should increase 50% to maintain equilibrium. According to the US Census Bureau, in 1940, 11 people in 100 were age 65 or over; in 1980, 19 per 100; and 1 estimate places 32 in 100 over 65 in the year 2030. In 90 years the proportion of senior citizens will increase 3 times; social security taxes should consequently also increase 3 times. The stable population model would mean that social security tax should double its current rate to maintain equilibrium. However, based on the actual change in the population's age structure, social security tax should in fact increase at least 3 times. From 1940 to the present, social security tax revenue has already increased 3 times. Turning to education, in 1961, 4.39 million babies were born in the US. By the mid-1970's, births had slowed to an annual average of 3 million. The decrease in number of university students and posts available to Ph.Ds follows the birth rate change of 20 years earlier. Many graduate institutions will be influenced by this decrease in births. From another perspective, the birth rate decrease has also reduced the educational burden on society, and should provide more opportunities and resources. However, in the American educational system, research opportunities are determined by teaching positions which are dependent upon university enrollment figures. The US Census Bureau predicts that enrollment rates must double in order to compensate for the decrease in university age population.

Optimal integrated abundances for chemical tagging of extragalactic globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakari, Charli M.; Venn, Kim; Shetrone, Matthew; Dotter, Aaron; Mackey, Dougal

2014-09-01

High-resolution integrated light (IL) spectroscopy provides detailed abundances of distant globular clusters whose stars cannot be resolved. Abundance comparisons with other systems (e.g. for chemical tagging) require understanding the systematic offsets that can occur between clusters, such as those due to uncertainties in the underlying stellar population. This paper analyses high-resolution IL spectra of the Galactic globular clusters 47 Tuc, M3, M13, NGC 7006, and M15 to (1) quantify potential systematic uncertainties in Fe, Ca, Ti, Ni, Ba, and Eu and (2) identify the most stable abundance ratios that will be useful in future analyses of unresolved targets. When stellar populations are well modelled, uncertainties are ˜0.1-0.2 dex based on sensitivities to the atmospheric parameters alone; in the worst-case scenarios, uncertainties can rise to 0.2-0.4 dex. The [Ca I/Fe I] ratio is identified as the optimal integrated [α/Fe] indicator (with offsets ≲ 0.1 dex), while [Ni I/Fe I] is also extremely stable to within ≲ 0.1 dex. The [Ba II/Eu II] ratios are also stable when the underlying populations are well modelled and may also be useful for chemical tagging.

Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy.

PubMed

Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L; Schultz, Stewart T

2004-09-07

Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite-host or predator-prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus (Pachycereus schottii)-senita moth (Upiga virescens) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre-adult survival of the pollinating seed-consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

Practical management problems of stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the elderly.

PubMed

Pistelli, Riccardo; Ferrara, Letizia; Misuraca, Clementina; Bustacchini, Silvia

2011-12-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the most prevalent and increasing health problems in the elderly on a worldwide scale. The management of COPD in older patients presents practical diagnostic and treatment issues, which are reviewed with reference to the stable stage of the disease. In the diagnostic approach of COPD in the elderly the use of spirometry is recommended, but both patient conditions (such as inability to correctly perform it due to fatigue, lack of coordination, and cognitive impairment) and metrics characteristics should be taken into account for the test performance. It has been demonstrated in population studies that the use of the fixed ratio determines a substantial overdiagnosis of COPD in the oldest patients. Other parameters have been suggested [such as the evaluation of Lower Limit of Normality (LLN) for the FEV1/FVC ratio], which may be useful to guide the diagnosis. Several nonpharmacologic - such as smoking cessation, vaccination, physical activity, and pulmonary rehabilitation, nutrition, and eventually invasive ventilation - and pharmacologic interventions have been shown to improve outcomes and have been reviewed. Effective management of COPD in older adults should always consider the ability of patients to properly use inhalers and the involvement of caregivers or family members as a useful support to care, especially when treating cognitively impaired patients. Especially in the older population, timely identification and treatment of comorbidities are also crucial, but evidence in this area is still lacking and clinical practice guidelines do not take comorbidities into account in their recommendations. The Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease has recommended criteria for diagnosis and management of COPD in the general population. On the contrary, available evidence suggests practical limitations in diagnostic approach and intervention strategies in older patients with stable COPD that need to be further studied for a translation into clinical practice guidelines.

Non-haemodynamic anti-anginal agents in the management of patients with stable coronary artery disease and diabetes: A review of the evidence.

PubMed

Ambrosio, Giuseppe; Tamargo, Juan; Grant, Peter J

2016-03-01

Patients with coronary artery disease and concomitant diabetes mellitus tend to have more extensive vessel disease than non-diabetes mellitus coronary artery disease patients, are at high risk of adverse cardiovascular events and suffer from a great anginal burden. Very few trials have specifically addressed the issue of optimal anti-anginal therapy in coronary artery disease patients who also have diabetes mellitus. Among 'classical' anti-anginal agents, recent guidelines do not specifically recommend any molecule over others; however, European Society of Cardiology guidelines acknowledge that favourable data in patients with concomitant diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease are available for trimetazidine and ranolazine, two anti-anginal agents with a non-haemodynamic mechanism of action. The aim of this article is to review available evidence supporting the anti-anginal efficacy of these two drugs in the difficult-to-treat population of diabetes mellitus patients, including their effects on glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), a measure of medium-term glycaemic control. Although direct head-to-head comparisons have not been performed, available evidence favours ranolazine as an effective anti-anginal agent over trimetazidine in this population. In addition, ranolazine lowers HbA1c, indicating that it may improve glycaemic control in patients with diabetes mellitus. Conversely, scanty data are available on the metabolic effects of trimetazidine in this cohort of patients. Thus, ranolazine may represent a valuable therapeutic option in stable coronary artery disease patients with diabetes mellitus. © The Author(s) 2015.

Mutation Bias Favors Protein Folding Stability in the Evolution of Small Populations

PubMed Central

Porto, Markus; Bastolla, Ugo

2010-01-01

Mutation bias in prokaryotes varies from extreme adenine and thymine (AT) in obligatory endosymbiotic or parasitic bacteria to extreme guanine and cytosine (GC), for instance in actinobacteria. GC mutation bias deeply influences the folding stability of proteins, making proteins on the average less hydrophobic and therefore less stable with respect to unfolding but also less susceptible to misfolding and aggregation. We study a model where proteins evolve subject to selection for folding stability under given mutation bias, population size, and neutrality. We find a non-neutral regime where, for any given population size, there is an optimal mutation bias that maximizes fitness. Interestingly, this optimal GC usage is small for small populations, large for intermediate populations and around 50% for large populations. This result is robust with respect to the definition of the fitness function and to the protein structures studied. Our model suggests that small populations evolving with small GC usage eventually accumulate a significant selective advantage over populations evolving without this bias. This provides a possible explanation to the observation that most species adopting obligatory intracellular lifestyles with a consequent reduction of effective population size shifted their mutation spectrum towards AT. The model also predicts that large GC usage is optimal for intermediate population size. To test these predictions we estimated the effective population sizes of bacterial species using the optimal codon usage coefficients computed by dos Reis et al. and the synonymous to non-synonymous substitution ratio computed by Daubin and Moran. We found that the population sizes estimated in these ways are significantly smaller for species with small and large GC usage compared to species with no bias, which supports our prediction. PMID:20463869

Multidisciplinary population monitoring when demographic data are sparse: a case study of remote trout populations

PubMed Central

Fraser, Dylan J; Calvert, Anna M; Bernatchez, Louis; Coon, Andrew

2013-01-01

The potential of genetic, genomic, and phenotypic metrics for monitoring population trends may be especially high in isolated regions, where traditional demographic monitoring is logistically difficult and only sporadic sampling is possible. This potential, however, is relatively underexplored empirically. Over eleven years, we assessed several such metrics along with traditional ecological knowledge and catch data in a socioeconomically important trout species occupying a large, remote lake. The data revealed largely stable characteristics in two populations over 2–3 generations, but possible contemporary changes in a third population. These potential shifts were suggested by reduced catch rates, reduced body size, and changes in selection implied at one gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphism. A demographic decline in this population, however, was ambiguously supported, based on the apparent lack of temporal change in effective population size, and corresponding traditional knowledge suggesting little change in catch. We illustrate how the pluralistic approach employed has practicality for setting future monitoring efforts of these populations, by guiding monitoring priorities according to the relative merits of different metrics and availability of resources. Our study also considers some advantages and disadvantages to adopting a pluralistic approach to population monitoring where demographic data are not easily obtained. PMID:24455128

Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

PubMed

Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

2018-01-18

Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of extractable mineral resources, or various metrics of development and governance. Our results suggest that sustained conservation activity in conflict zones-and rapid interventions following ceasefires-may help to save many at-risk populations and species.

Dicke states in multiple quantum dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitek, Anna; Manolescu, Andrei

2013-10-01

We present a theoretical study of the collective optical effects which can occur in groups of three and four quantum dots. We define conditions for stable subradiant (dark) states, rapidly decaying super-radiant states, and spontaneous trapping of excitation. Each quantum dot is treated like a two-level system. The quantum dots are, however, realistic, meaning that they may have different transition energies and dipole moments. The dots interact via a short-range coupling which allows excitation transfer across the dots, but conserves the total population of the system. We calculate the time evolution of single-exciton and biexciton states using the Lindblad equation. In the steady state the individual populations of each dot may have permanent oscillations with frequencies given by the energy separation between the subradiant eigenstates.

Using gene transcription to assess ecological and anthropological stressors in brown bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowen, Lizabeth; Miles, A. Keith; Waters, Shannon C.; Gustine, Dave; Joly, Kyle; Hilderbrand, Grant V.

2018-01-01

Increasingly, population- and ecosystem-level health assessments are performed using sophisticated molecular tools. Advances in molecular technology enable the identification of synergistic effects of multiple stressors on the individual physiology of different species. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) are an apex predator; thus, they are ideal candidates for detecting potentially ecosystem-level systemic perturbations using molecular-based tools. We used gene transcription to analyze 130 brown bear samples from three National Parks and Preserves in Alaska. Although the populations we studied are apparently stable in abundance and exist within protected and intact environments, differences in transcript profiles were noted. The most prevalent differences were among locations. The transcript patterns among groups reflect the influence of environmental factors, such as nutritional status, disease, and xenobiotic exposure. However, these profiles also likely represent baselines for each unique environment by which future measures can be made to identify early indication of population-level changes due to, for example, increasing Arctic temperatures. Some of those environmental changes are predicted to be potentially positive for brown bears, but other effects such as the manifestation of disease or indirect effects of oceanic acidification may produce negative impacts.

Turing patterns and a stochastic individual-based model for predator-prey systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagano, Seido

2012-02-01

Reaction-diffusion theory has played a very important role in the study of pattern formations in biology. However, a group of individuals is described by a single state variable representing population density in reaction-diffusion models and interaction between individuals can be included only phenomenologically. Recently, we have seamlessly combined individual-based models with elements of reaction-diffusion theory. To include animal migration in the scheme, we have adopted a relationship between the diffusion and the random numbers generated according to a two-dimensional bivariate normal distribution. Thus, we have observed the transition of population patterns from an extinction mode, a stable mode, or an oscillatory mode to the chaotic mode as the population growth rate increases. We show our phase diagram of predator-prey systems and discuss the microscopic mechanism for the stable lattice formation in detail.

Using Population Density and Size Class Frequency to Identify Recruitment Limitation and Saturation in Shellfishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.

2016-02-01

Many fisheries are threatened due to overfishing, changing climate, and anthropogenic activities. Benthic marine organisms can be especially vulnerable to these pressures because of their inability to flee, and some of these organisms comprise the most threatened fisheries. Providing predictive tools to managers is key to reestablishing populations and sustainability in threatened or crashed fisheries. Here we examine the demographics of Cellana spp., culturally and culinarily important intertidal shellfishes in Hawai'i, in populations that are naturally recruitment limited and those that are recruitment saturated. We focus on variation in two demographic parameters: population density and size class frequency. From 2009 to 2015, yearly transect surveys were conducted on four isolated and uninhabited islands within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), a massive marine protected area. Two islands exhibit classic signs of recruitment limitation with several absent intertidal species and low population densities while two larger islands have a relative abundance of species and high population densities. The population density of C. exarata in the recruitment-saturated populations exhibit much higher variability, than in the recruitment-limited populations, that is driven by a massive recruitment peak in May-June. An inverted age pyramid characterized the recruitment-limited populations, which display a more stable adult-dominated population. The recruitment-saturated populations were characterized by a traditional age pyramid, which exhibit a less stable juvenile-dominated population. These results are being used to model and predict population dynamics in the intensely harvested populations of the main Hawaiian Islands for the purposes of management decision-making.

Tropical insular fish assemblages are resilient to flood disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, William E.; Kwak, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Periods of stable environmental conditions, favoring development of ecological communities regulated by density-dependent processes, are interrupted by random periods of disturbance that may restructure communities. Disturbance may affect populations via habitat alteration, mortality, or displacement. We quantified fish habitat conditions, density, and movement before and after a major flood disturbance in a Caribbean island tropical river using habitat surveys, fish sampling and population estimates, radio telemetry, and passively monitored PIT tags. Native stream fish populations showed evidence of acute mortality and downstream displacement of surviving fish. All fish species were reduced in number at most life stages after the disturbance, but populations responded with recruitment and migration into vacated upstream habitats. Changes in density were uneven among size classes for most species, indicating altered size structures. Rapid recovery processes at the population level appeared to dampen effects at the assemblage level, as fish assemblage parameters (species richness and diversity) were unchanged by the flooding. The native fish assemblage appeared resilient to flood disturbance, rapidly compensating for mortality and displacement with increased recruitment and recolonization of upstream habitats.

Risk prediction in stable cardiovascular disease using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T single biomarker strategy compared to the ESC-SCORE.

PubMed

Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Stoyanov, Kiril M; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Katus, Hugo A; Hochholzer, Willibald; Valina, Christian Marc

2018-01-01

To evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) compared with the ESC-SCORE. We included low-risk outpatients with stable cardiovascular (CV) disease categorised into need for non-secondary and secondary prevention. The prognostication of hs-cTnT at index visit was compared with the European Society of Cardiology-Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (ESC-SCORE) with respect to all-cause mortality (ACM) and two composite endpoints (ACM, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke and ACM, AMI, stroke and rehospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and decompensated heart failure (DHF)). Within a median follow-up of 796 days, a total of 16 deaths, 32 composite endpoints of ACM, AMI and stroke and 83 composite endpoints of ACM, AMI, stroke, rehospitalisation for ACS and DHF were observed among 693 stable low-risk outpatients. Using C-statistics, measurement of hs-cTnT alone outperformed the ESC-SCORE for the prediction of ACM in the entire study population (Δarea under the curve (AUC) 0.221, p=0.0039) and both prevention groups (non-secondary: ΔAUC 0.164, p=0.0208; secondary: ΔAUC 0.264, p=0.0134). For the prediction of all other secondary endpoints, hs-cTnT was at least as effective as the ESC-SCORE, both in secondary and non-secondary prevention. Using continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement, hs-cTnT significantly improved reclassification regarding all endpoints in the entire population and in the secondary prevention cohort. In non-secondary prevention, hs-cTnT improved reclassification only for ACM. The results were confirmed in an independent external cohort on 2046 patients. Hs-cTnT is superior to the multivariable ESC-SCORE for the prediction of ACM and a composite endpoint in stable outpatients with and without relevant CV disease. NCT01954303; Pre-results.

Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Endemicity in Indonesia in 2010

PubMed Central

Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Rogayah, Hanifah; Kusriastuti, Rita; Wismarini, Desak M.; Tarmizi, Siti N.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

2011-01-01

Background Malaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010. Methods Plasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006–2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985–2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2–10 year old PfPR data (PfPR2–10) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR2–10 endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface. Results We estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas. Conclusion While further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of future strategies against this 2010 baseline and ultimately improve their evidence-based malaria control strategies. PMID:21738634

Weaning age in an expanding population: stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of infant feeding practices in the Okhotsk culture (5th-13th centuries AD) in Northern Japan.

PubMed

Tsutaya, Takumi; Ishida, Hajime; Yoneda, Minoru

2015-08-01

The Okhotsk people were sedentary hunter-gatherer-fishers who lived and prospered in Sakhalin, Hokkaido, and the Kurile Islands during the 5th to 13th centuries AD. They expanded rapidly along the northeastern coast of Hokkaido. We reconstructed infant feeding practices of the Moyoro population of the Okhotsk culture in eastern Hokkaido, Japan. Stable isotope ratios in 58 subadult human skeletons were measured. The results suggest that complementary foods with a relatively low carbon isotope ratio were consumed during and after weaning, as observed in ethnographic descriptions of northern human populations such as the Ainu and isotopically suggested in ancient northern hunter-gatherer-fisher populations. Nitrogen isotope ratios of subadults showed that the age at the end of weaning in the Moyoro population was 1.8 (1.4-2.2 in 95% credible interval) years, which is earlier than that in other northern hunter-gatherer-fisher populations. Because weaning age is one of the most important determinants of fertility, a shorter breastfeeding period suggests increased fertility. Furthermore, better nutrition would further promote the population increase, and thus populations of the Okhotsk culture could expand into new regions. These findings are consistent with recent emerging evidence of great contributions of the Okhotsk to the formation of later Ainu populations and culture. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Resolving the trophic relations of cryptic species: an example using stable isotope analysis of dolphin teeth.

PubMed

Owen, Kylie; Charlton-Robb, Kate; Thompson, Ross

2011-02-18

Understanding the foraging ecology and diet of animals can play a crucial role in conservation of a species. This is particularly true where species are cryptic and coexist in environments where observing feeding behaviour directly is difficult. Here we present the first information on the foraging ecology of a recently identified species of dolphin (Southern Australian bottlenose dolphin (SABD)) and comparisons to the common bottlenose dolphin (CBD) in Victoria, Australia, using stable isotope analysis of teeth. Stable isotope signatures differed significantly between SABD and CBD for both δ(13)C (-14.4‰ vs. -15.5‰ respectively) and δ(15)N (15.9‰ vs. 15.0‰ respectively), suggesting that the two species forage in different areas and consume different prey. This finding supports genetic and morphological data indicating that SABD are distinct from CBD. In Victoria, the SABD is divided into two distinct populations, one in the large drowned river system of Port Phillip Bay and the other in a series of coastal lakes and lagoons called the Gippsland Lakes. Within the SABD species, population differences were apparent. The Port Phillip Bay population displayed a significantly higher δ(15)N than the Gippsland Lakes population (17.0‰ vs. 15.5‰), suggesting that the Port Phillip Bay population may feed at a higher trophic level--a result which is supported by analysis of local food chains. Important future work is required to further understand the foraging ecology and diet of this newly described, endemic, and potentially endangered species of dolphin.

Resolving the Trophic Relations of Cryptic Species: An Example Using Stable Isotope Analysis of Dolphin Teeth

PubMed Central

Owen, Kylie; Charlton-Robb, Kate; Thompson, Ross

2011-01-01

Understanding the foraging ecology and diet of animals can play a crucial role in conservation of a species. This is particularly true where species are cryptic and coexist in environments where observing feeding behaviour directly is difficult. Here we present the first information on the foraging ecology of a recently identified species of dolphin (Southern Australian bottlenose dolphin (SABD)) and comparisons to the common bottlenose dolphin (CBD) in Victoria, Australia, using stable isotope analysis of teeth. Stable isotope signatures differed significantly between SABD and CBD for both δ13C (−14.4‰ vs. −15.5‰ respectively) and δ15N (15.9‰ vs. 15.0‰ respectively), suggesting that the two species forage in different areas and consume different prey. This finding supports genetic and morphological data indicating that SABD are distinct from CBD. In Victoria, the SABD is divided into two distinct populations, one in the large drowned river system of Port Phillip Bay and the other in a series of coastal lakes and lagoons called the Gippsland Lakes. Within the SABD species, population differences were apparent. The Port Phillip Bay population displayed a significantly higher δ15N than the Gippsland Lakes population (17.0‰ vs. 15.5‰), suggesting that the Port Phillip Bay population may feed at a higher trophic level - a result which is supported by analysis of local food chains. Important future work is required to further understand the foraging ecology and diet of this newly described, endemic, and potentially endangered species of dolphin. PMID:21364748

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Kozlov, Mikhail V; Itämies, Juhani; Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana; Kyrö, Ella-Maria; Niemelä, Pekka

2014-06-01

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics.

PubMed

Abdelrazec, Ahmed; Gumel, Abba B

2017-05-01

A new stage-structured model for the population dynamics of the mosquito (a major vector for numerous vector-borne diseases), which takes the form of a deterministic system of non-autonomous nonlinear differential equations, is designed and used to study the effect of variability in temperature and rainfall on mosquito abundance in a community. Two functional forms of eggs oviposition rate, namely the Verhulst-Pearl logistic and Maynard-Smith-Slatkin functions, are used. Rigorous analysis of the autonomous version of the model shows that, for any of the oviposition functions considered, the trivial equilibrium of the model is locally- and globally-asymptotically stable if a certain vectorial threshold quantity is less than unity. Conditions for the existence and global asymptotic stability of the non-trivial equilibrium solutions of the model are also derived. The model is shown to undergo a Hopf bifurcation under certain conditions (and that increased density-dependent competition in larval mortality reduces the likelihood of such bifurcation). The analyses reveal that the Maynard-Smith-Slatkin oviposition function sustains more oscillations than the Verhulst-Pearl logistic function (hence, it is more suited, from ecological viewpoint, for modeling the egg oviposition process). The non-autonomous model is shown to have a globally-asymptotically stable trivial periodic solution, for each of the oviposition functions, when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, this model, in the absence of density-dependent mortality rate for larvae, has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable periodic solution under certain conditions. Numerical simulations of the non-autonomous model, using mosquito surveillance and weather data from the Peel region of Ontario, Canada, show a peak mosquito abundance for temperature and rainfall values in the range [Formula: see text]C and [15-35] mm, respectively. These ranges are recorded in the Peel region between July and August (hence, this study suggests that anti-mosquito control effects should be intensified during this period).

Frequency-dependent selection can lead to evolution of high mutation rates.

PubMed

Rosenbloom, Daniel I S; Allen, Benjamin

2014-05-01

Theoretical and experimental studies have shown that high mutation rates can be advantageous, especially in novel or fluctuating environments. Here we examine how frequency-dependent competition may lead to fluctuations in trait frequencies that exert upward selective pressure on mutation rates. We use a mathematical model to show that cyclical trait dynamics generated by "rock-paper-scissors" competition can cause the mutation rate in a population to converge to a high evolutionarily stable mutation rate, reflecting a trade-off between generating novelty and reproducing past success. Introducing recombination lowers the evolutionarily stable mutation rate but allows stable coexistence between mutation rates above and below the evolutionarily stable rate. Even considering strong mutational load and ignoring the costs of faithful replication, evolution favors positive mutation rates if the selective advantage of prevailing in competition exceeds the ratio of recombining to nonrecombining offspring. We discuss a number of genomic mechanisms that may meet our theoretical requirements for the adaptive evolution of mutation. Overall, our results suggest that local mutation rates may be higher on genes influencing cyclical competition and that global mutation rates in asexual species may be higher in populations subject to strong cyclical competition.

Spatially Explicit Modeling Reveals Cephalopod Distributions Match Contrasting Trophic Pathways in the Western Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Puerta, Patricia; Hunsicker, Mary E.; Quetglas, Antoni; Álvarez-Berastegui, Diego; Esteban, Antonio; González, María; Hidalgo, Manuel

2015-01-01

Populations of the same species can experience different responses to the environment throughout their distributional range as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in habitat conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding the processes governing species distribution at local scales. However, research on species distribution often averages environmental covariates across large geographic areas, missing variability in population-environment interactions within geographically distinct regions. We used spatially explicit models to identify interactions between species and environmental, including chlorophyll a (Chla) and sea surface temperature (SST), and trophic (prey density) conditions, along with processes governing the distribution of two cephalopods with contrasting life-histories (octopus and squid) across the western Mediterranean Sea. This approach is relevant for cephalopods, since their population dynamics are especially sensitive to variations in habitat conditions and rarely stable in abundance and location. The regional distributions of the two cephalopod species matched two different trophic pathways present in the western Mediterranean Sea, associated with the Gulf of Lion upwelling and the Ebro river discharges respectively. The effects of the studied environmental and trophic conditions were spatially variant in both species, with usually stronger effects along their distributional boundaries. We identify areas where prey availability limited the abundance of cephalopod populations as well as contrasting effects of temperature in the warmest regions. Despite distributional patterns matching productive areas, a general negative effect of Chla on cephalopod densities suggests that competition pressure is common in the study area. Additionally, results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, beyond other common environmental factors, in shaping the distribution of cephalopod populations. Our study presents a valuable approach for understanding the spatially variant ecology of cephalopod populations, which is important for fisheries and ecosystem management. PMID:26201075

Medical therapy v. PCI in stable coronary artery disease: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Tomlinson, George; Ko, Dennis T; Dzavik, Vladimir; Krahn, Murray D

2013-10-01

Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with either drug-eluting stents (DES) or bare metal stents (BMS) reduces angina and repeat procedures compared with optimal medical therapy alone. It remains unclear if these benefits are sufficient to offset their increased costs and small increase in adverse events. Cost utility analysis of initial medical therapy v. PCI with either BMS or DES. . Markov cohort decision model. Data Sources. Propensity-matched observational data from Ontario, Canada, for baseline event rates. Effectiveness and utility data obtained from the published literature, with costs from the Ontario Case Costing Initiative. Patients with stable coronary artery disease, confirmed after angiography, stratified by risk of restenosis based on diabetic status, lesion size, and lesion length. Time Horizon. Lifetime. Perspective. Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care. Interventions. Optimal medical therapy, PCI with BMS or DES. Lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). of Base Case Analysis. In the overall population, medical therapy had the lowest lifetime costs at $22,952 v. $25,081 and $25,536 for BMS and DES, respectively. Medical therapy had a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 10.1 v. 10.26 QALYs for BMS, producing an ICER of $13,271/QALY. The DES strategy had a quality-adjusted life expectancy of only 10.20 QALYs and was dominated by the BMS strategy. This ranking was consistent in all groups stratified by restenosis risk, except diabetic patients with long lesions in small arteries, in whom DES was cost-effective compared with medical therapy (ICER of $18,826/QALY). Limitations. There is the possibility of residual unobserved confounding. In patients with stable coronary artery disease, an initial BMS strategy is cost-effective.

Transplant experiments uncover Baltic Sea basin-specific responses in bacterioplankton community composition and metabolic activities.

PubMed

Lindh, Markus V; Figueroa, Daniela; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Baltar, Federico; Lundin, Daniel; Andersson, Agneta; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

2015-01-01

Anthropogenically induced changes in precipitation are projected to generate increased river runoff to semi-enclosed seas, increasing loads of terrestrial dissolved organic matter and decreasing salinity. To determine how bacterial community structure and functioning adjust to such changes, we designed microcosm transplant experiments with Baltic Proper (salinity 7.2) and Bothnian Sea (salinity 3.6) water. Baltic Proper bacteria generally reached higher abundances than Bothnian Sea bacteria in both Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea water, indicating higher adaptability. Moreover, Baltic Proper bacteria growing in Bothnian Sea water consistently showed highest bacterial production and beta-glucosidase activity. These metabolic responses were accompanied by basin-specific changes in bacterial community structure. For example, Baltic Proper Pseudomonas and Limnobacter populations increased markedly in relative abundance in Bothnian Sea water, indicating a replacement effect. In contrast, Roseobacter and Rheinheimera populations were stable or increased in abundance when challenged by either of the waters, indicating an adjustment effect. Transplants to Bothnian Sea water triggered the initial emergence of particular Burkholderiaceae populations, and transplants to Baltic Proper water triggered Alteromonadaceae populations. Notably, in the subsequent re-transplant experiment, a priming effect resulted in further increases to dominance of these populations. Correlated changes in community composition and metabolic activity were observed only in the transplant experiment and only at relatively high phylogenetic resolution. This suggested an importance of successional progression for interpreting relationships between bacterial community composition and functioning. We infer that priming effects on bacterial community structure by natural episodic events or climate change induced forcing could translate into long-term changes in bacterial ecosystem process rates.

Transplant experiments uncover Baltic Sea basin-specific responses in bacterioplankton community composition and metabolic activities

PubMed Central

Lindh, Markus V.; Figueroa, Daniela; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Baltar, Federico; Lundin, Daniel; Andersson, Agneta; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

2015-01-01

Anthropogenically induced changes in precipitation are projected to generate increased river runoff to semi-enclosed seas, increasing loads of terrestrial dissolved organic matter and decreasing salinity. To determine how bacterial community structure and functioning adjust to such changes, we designed microcosm transplant experiments with Baltic Proper (salinity 7.2) and Bothnian Sea (salinity 3.6) water. Baltic Proper bacteria generally reached higher abundances than Bothnian Sea bacteria in both Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea water, indicating higher adaptability. Moreover, Baltic Proper bacteria growing in Bothnian Sea water consistently showed highest bacterial production and beta-glucosidase activity. These metabolic responses were accompanied by basin-specific changes in bacterial community structure. For example, Baltic Proper Pseudomonas and Limnobacter populations increased markedly in relative abundance in Bothnian Sea water, indicating a replacement effect. In contrast, Roseobacter and Rheinheimera populations were stable or increased in abundance when challenged by either of the waters, indicating an adjustment effect. Transplants to Bothnian Sea water triggered the initial emergence of particular Burkholderiaceae populations, and transplants to Baltic Proper water triggered Alteromonadaceae populations. Notably, in the subsequent re-transplant experiment, a priming effect resulted in further increases to dominance of these populations. Correlated changes in community composition and metabolic activity were observed only in the transplant experiment and only at relatively high phylogenetic resolution. This suggested an importance of successional progression for interpreting relationships between bacterial community composition and functioning. We infer that priming effects on bacterial community structure by natural episodic events or climate change induced forcing could translate into long-term changes in bacterial ecosystem process rates. PMID:25883589

Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

PubMed

Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

2017-03-01

Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

Assortment of encounters and evolution of cooperativeness.

PubMed

Eshel, I; Cavalli-Sforza, L L

1982-02-01

The method of evolutionary stable strategies (ESS), in its current form, is confronted with a difficulty when it tries to explain how some social behaviors initiate their evolution. We show that this difficulty may be removed by changing the assumption made tacitly in game theory (and in ESS) of randomness of meetings or encounters. In reality, such randomness seems to be rare in nature. Family, population and social structure, customs, and habits impose various types of deviation from randomness. Introducing nonrandomness of meeting in a way formally similar to assortative mating, we show that the bar to initial increase of inherited cooperative or altruistic behaviors can be removed, provided there is sufficient assortment of meetings. Family structure may cause contacts predominantly between certain types of relatives, and one can reconstruct some results of classical kin selection in terms of evolutionary stable strategy with assortative meetings. Neighbor effects and group selection might be similarly treated. Assortment need not be a passive consequence of population and social structure, but it can also be actively pursued. Behaviors favoring the choice of cooperative companions will have the effect of favoring the evolution of cooperativeness. It can be shown that discrimination in the choice of companions, especially if combined with assortment, can favor the development of cooperativeness, making initial increase of cooperative behavior possible even at levels of assortment passively imposed which would not be adequate, per se, to guarantee the increase of cooperativeness. It is possible that, in some cases, cooperativeness and behavior favoring some type of assortment are coselected.

Genome-Wide Analysis of Grain Yield Stability and Environmental Interactions in a Multiparental Soybean Population.

PubMed

Xavier, Alencar; Jarquin, Diego; Howard, Reka; Ramasubramanian, Vishnu; Specht, James E; Graef, George L; Beavis, William D; Diers, Brian W; Song, Qijian; Cregan, Perry B; Nelson, Randall; Mian, Rouf; Shannon, J Grover; McHale, Leah; Wang, Dechun; Schapaugh, William; Lorenz, Aaron J; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William M; Rainey, Katy M

2018-02-02

Genetic improvement toward optimized and stable agronomic performance of soybean genotypes is desirable for food security. Understanding how genotypes perform in different environmental conditions helps breeders develop sustainable cultivars adapted to target regions. Complex traits of importance are known to be controlled by a large number of genomic regions with small effects whose magnitude and direction are modulated by environmental factors. Knowledge of the constraints and undesirable effects resulting from genotype by environmental interactions is a key objective in improving selection procedures in soybean breeding programs. In this study, the genetic basis of soybean grain yield responsiveness to environmental factors was examined in a large soybean nested association population. For this, a genome-wide association to performance stability estimates generated from a Finlay-Wilkinson analysis and the inclusion of the interaction between marker genotypes and environmental factors was implemented. Genomic footprints were investigated by analysis and meta-analysis using a recently published multiparent model. Results indicated that specific soybean genomic regions were associated with stability, and that multiplicative interactions were present between environments and genetic background. Seven genomic regions in six chromosomes were identified as being associated with genotype-by-environment interactions. This study provides insight into genomic assisted breeding aimed at achieving a more stable agronomic performance of soybean, and documented opportunities to exploit genomic regions that were specifically associated with interactions involving environments and subpopulations. Copyright © 2018 Xavier et al.

Review of the If selective channel inhibitor ivabradine in the treatment of chronic stable angina.

PubMed

Prasad, Usha K; Gray, David; Purcell, Henry

2009-02-01

Coronary heart disease is the major cause of morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries, and its prevalence is predicted to grow as the population ages. Current drugs for chronic stable angina (such as beta-blockers, calcium-channel blockers, long- and short-acting nitrates, and potassium-channel activators) are often effective, either as monotherapy or in combination, but side effects and contraindications may limit their use. The "I(f)" (for "funny") channel, discovered in 1979, is expressed mainly in the membrane of pacemaker cells present in the sinus node, the atrioventricular node, the ventricular conduction pathways, and ventricular myocytes. By determining the slope of diastolic depolarization, which in turn controls action potential frequency, it is a key determinant of heart rate and so provides a new therapeutic target for controlling angina symptoms. A new antiangina drug, ivabradine, has been developed and licensed for clinical use. It exclusively reduces the heart rate by selectively blocking the I(f) channel of the sino-atrial node. As clinical trials have shown it to be remarkably well-tolerated, ivabradine offers an alternative for patients who cannot take, or are intolerant of, beta blockade. This review provides an insight into this new agent, its historical background, mechanism of action, and pathophysiologic basis, and provides up-to-date evidence-based information on its optimum use in stable angina.

An Industry-Scale Mass Marking Technique for Tracing Farmed Fish Escapees

PubMed Central

Warren-Myers, Fletcher; Dempster, Tim; Fjelldal, Per Gunnar; Hansen, Tom; Swearer, Stephen E.

2015-01-01

Farmed fish escape and enter the environment with subsequent effects on wild populations. Reducing escapes requires the ability to trace individuals back to the point of escape, so that escape causes can be identified and technical standards improved. Here, we tested if stable isotope otolith fingerprint marks delivered during routine vaccination could be an accurate, feasible and cost effective marking method, suitable for industrial-scale application. We tested seven stable isotopes, 134Ba, 135Ba, 136Ba, 137Ba, 86Sr, 87Sr and 26Mg, on farmed Atlantic salmon reared in freshwater, in experimental conditions designed to reflect commercial practice. Marking was 100% successful with individual Ba isotopes at concentrations as low as 0.001 µg. g-1 fish and for Sr isotopes at 1 µg. g-1 fish. Our results suggest that 63 unique fingerprint marks can be made at low cost using Ba (0.0002 – 0.02 $US per mark) and Sr (0.46 – 0.82 $US per mark) isotopes. Stable isotope fingerprinting during vaccination is feasible for commercial application if applied at a company level within the world’s largest salmon producing nations. Introducing a mass marking scheme would enable tracing of escapees back to point of origin, which could drive greater compliance, better farm design and improved management practices to reduce escapes. PMID:25738955

Male-killing endosymbionts: influence of environmental conditions on persistence of host metapopulation

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background Male killing endosymbionts manipulate their arthropod host reproduction by only allowing female embryos to develop into infected females and killing all male offspring. Because of the reproductive manipulation, we expect them to have an effect on the evolution of host dispersal rates. In addition, male killing endosymbionts are expected to approach fixation when fitness of infected individuals is larger than that of uninfected ones and when transmission from mother to offspring is nearly perfect. They then vanish as the host population crashes. High observed infection rates and among-population variation in natural systems can consequently not be explained if defense mechanisms are absent and when transmission efficiency is perfect. Results By simulating the host-endosymbiont dynamics in an individual-based metapopulation model we show that male killing endosymbionts increase host dispersal rates. No fitness compensations were built into the model for male killing endosymbionts, but they spread as a group beneficial trait. Host and parasite populations face extinction under panmictic conditions, i.e. conditions that favor the evolution of high dispersal in hosts. On the other hand, deterministic 'curing' (only parasite goes extinct) can occur under conditions of low dispersal, e.g. under low environmental stochasticity and high dispersal mortality. However, high and stable infection rates can be maintained in metapopulations over a considerable spectrum of conditions favoring intermediate levels of dispersal in the host. Conclusion Male killing endosymbionts without explicit fitness compensation spread as a group selected trait into a metapopulation. Emergent feedbacks through increased evolutionary stable dispersal rates provide an alternative explanation for both, the high male-killing endosymbiont infection rates and the high among-population variation in local infection rates reported for some natural systems. PMID:18764948

Range-wide patterns of migratory connectivity in the western sandpiper Calidris mauri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franks, Samantha E.; Norris, D. Ryan; Kyser, T. Kurt; Fernández, Guillermo; Schwarz, Birgit; Carmona, Roberto; Colwell, Mark A.; Sandoval, Jorge Correa; Dondua, Alexey; Gates, H. River; Haase, Ben; Hodkinson, David J.; Jiménez, Ariam; Lanctot, Richard B.; Ortego, Brent; Sandercock, Brett K.; Sanders, Felicia J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Warnock, Nils; Ydenberg, Ron C.; Lank, David B.

2012-01-01

Understanding the population dynamics of migratory animals and predicting the consequences of environmental change requires knowing how populations are spatially connected between different periods of the annual cycle. We used stable isotopes to examine patterns of migratory connectivity across the range of the western sandpiper Calidris mauri. First, we developed a winter isotope basemap from stable-hydrogen (δD), -carbon (δ13C), and -nitrogen (δ15N) isotopes of feathers grown in wintering areas. δD and δ15N values from wintering individuals varied with the latitude and longitude of capture location, while δ13C varied with longitude only. We then tested the ability of the basemap to assign known-origin individuals. Sixty percent of wintering individuals were correctly assigned to their region of origin out of seven possible regions. Finally, we estimated the winter origins of breeding and migrant individuals and compared the resulting empirical distribution against the distribution that would be expected based on patterns of winter relative abundance. For breeding birds, the distribution of winter origins differed from expected only among males in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta and Nome, Alaska. Males in the Y-K Delta originated overwhelmingly from western Mexico, while in Nome, there were fewer males from western North America and more from the Baja Peninsula than expected. An unexpectedly high proportion of migrants captured at a stopover site in the interior United States originated from eastern and southern wintering areas, while none originated from western North America. In general, we document substantial mixing between the breeding and wintering populations of both sexes, which will buffer the global population of western sandpipers from the effects of local habitat loss on both breeding and wintering grounds.

Trends in Alaska's People and Economy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leask, Linda; Killorin, Mary; Martin, Stephanie

This booklet provides data on Alaska's population, economy, health, education, government, and natural resources, including specific information on Alaska Natives. Since 1960, Alaska's population has tripled and become more diverse, more stable, older, less likely to be male or married, and more concentrated. About 69 percent of the population…

Saptial and Temporal in Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Juvenile Winter Flounder Otoliths From Selected Nursery Areas

EPA Science Inventory

Winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations have supported large commercial and recreational fisheries along the coast of New England. In recent years, however, the population of this important species has declined precipitously in some areas, especially Narragan...

(Sample) Size Matters: Best Practices for Defining Error in Planktic Foraminiferal Proxy Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowery, C.; Fraass, A. J.

2016-02-01

Paleoceanographic research is a vital tool to extend modern observational datasets and to study the impact of climate events for which there is no modern analog. Foraminifera are one of the most widely used tools for this type of work, both as paleoecological indicators and as carriers for geochemical proxies. However, the use of microfossils as proxies for paleoceanographic conditions brings about a unique set of problems. This is primarily due to the fact that groups of individual foraminifera, which usually live about a month, are used to infer average conditions for time periods ranging from hundreds to tens of thousands of years. Because of this, adequate sample size is very important for generating statistically robust datasets, particularly for stable isotopes. In the early days of stable isotope geochemistry, instrumental limitations required hundreds of individual foraminiferal tests to return a value. This had the fortunate side-effect of smoothing any seasonal to decadal changes within the planktic foram population. With the advent of more sensitive mass spectrometers, smaller sample sizes have now become standard. While this has many advantages, the use of smaller numbers of individuals to generate a data point has lessened the amount of time averaging in the isotopic analysis and decreased precision in paleoceanographic datasets. With fewer individuals per sample, the differences between individual specimens will result in larger variation, and therefore error, and less precise values for each sample. Unfortunately, most (the authors included) do not make a habit of reporting the error associated with their sample size. We have created an open-source model in R to quantify the effect of sample sizes under various realistic and highly modifiable parameters (calcification depth, diagenesis in a subset of the population, improper identification, vital effects, mass, etc.). For example, a sample in which only 1 in 10 specimens is diagenetically altered can be off by >0.3‰ δ18O VPDB, or 1°C. Here, we demonstrate the use of this tool to quantify error in micropaleontological datasets, and suggest best practices for minimizing error when generating stable isotope data with foraminifera.

Emergent Societal Effects of Crimino-Social Forces in an Animat Agent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scogings, Chris J.; Hawick, Ken A.

Societal behaviour can be studied at a causal level by perturbing a stable multi-agent model with new microscopic behaviours and observing the statistical response over an ensemble of simulated model systems. We report on the effects of introducing criminal and law-enforcing behaviours into a large scale animat agent model and describe the complex spatial agent patterns and population changes that result. Our well-established predator-prey substrate model provides a background framework against which these new microscopic behaviours can be trialled and investigated. We describe some quantitative results and some surprising conclusions concerning the overall societal health when individually anti-social behaviour is introduced.

Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Heather M.; Flint, Paul L.; Powell, Abby N.; Grand, J. Barry; Moral, Christine L.

2012-01-01

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

PubMed

Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

2015-11-01

Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Do unpaved, low-traffic roads affect bird communities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammides, Christos; Kounnamas, Constantinos; Goodale, Eben; Kadis, Costas

2016-02-01

Unpaved, low traffic roads are often assumed to have minimal effects on biodiversity. To explore this assertion, we sampled the bird communities in fifteen randomly selected sites in Pafos Forest, Cyprus and used multiple regression to quantify the effects of such roads on the total species richness. Moreover, we classified birds according to their migratory status and their global population trends, and tested each category separately. Besides the total length of unpaved roads, we also tested: a. the site's habitat diversity, b. the coefficient of variation in habitat (patch) size, c. the distance to the nearest agricultural field, and d. the human population size of the nearest village. We measured our variables at six different distances from the bird point-count locations. We found a strong negative relationship between the total bird richness and the total length of unpaved roads. The human population size of the nearest village also had a negative effect. Habitat diversity was positively related to species richness. When the categories were tested, we found that the passage migrants were influenced more by the road network while resident breeders were influenced by habitat diversity. Species with increasing and stable populations were only marginally affected by the variables tested, but the effect of road networks on species with decreasing populations was large. We conclude that unpaved and sporadically used roads can have detrimental effects on the bird communities, especially on vulnerable species. We propose that actions are taken to limit the extent of road networks within protected areas, especially in sites designated for their rich avifauna, such as Pafos Forest, where several of the affected species are species of European and global importance.

Space-use, diet, demographics, and topographic associations of lynx in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains: A study [Chapter 12

Treesearch

Clayton D. Apps

2000-01-01

Snowshoe hares are considered the primary prey of Canada lynx throughout their range. Relative to northern populations, hares occurring in mountainous regions at southern latitudes are thought to remain at low and stable densities through time. Hence, the ecology of associated southern lynx populations is expected to resemble that of northern populations during the low...

Wolf population in the Central Superior National Forest, 1967-1985.

Treesearch

L. David Mech

1986-01-01

Aerial radio-tracking and observation showed total number of wolves per year in 2,060-sq. km. Area varied from 35 to 87 in winter and from 30 to 78 in spring and generally declined because of a decreasing deer herd. Since winter 1977-1978, the population has remained relatively stable because an increasing population has switched to preying on moose. The number of...

Population density and suicide in Scotland.

PubMed

Stark, Cameron; Hopkins, Paddy; Gibbs, Diane; Belbin, Alan; Hay, Alistair

2007-01-01

Suicide rates among men have increased in Scotland while falling in neighbouring countries. A national suicide prevention strategy has been produced. Previous work found that some rural areas of Scotland had higher than average rates of male suicide and undetermined deaths. This article describes the association between population density and suicide and undetermined death rates in Scotland. Anonymised information on deaths from suicide and undetermined cause in Scotland were obtained from the General Registrar Office for 1981-1999, including information on postcode sector. Each postcode sector was assigned a deprivation and population density score. Loglinear models were used to examine the effects of time period (grouped into four periods), deprivation quintiles, population density (grouped into four categories) and their interactions in each sex in three age groups. A significance level of 5% was used throughout. Adjusted rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were based on models that included only significant factors and interactions. In men, there were higher rate ratios in the most densely populated and least densely populated quartiles, with intermediate rate ratios in other areas. There was no association with population density in women aged less than 25 years, a similar pattern to men in 25-44 year old women, and lower rates in rural areas in older women. Higher levels of deprivation were associated with higher rate ratios of suicide in both sexes and all age groups. Rate ratios over time increased in younger men and women, remained stable in older men, and declined in older women. Deprivation is associated with higher rates of suicide and undetermined deaths at all levels of population density and in all age groups. The highest rates of suicide among men are in the most and least densely populated areas, after adjusting for deprivation. The effect is different among women, with no effect among younger women, and lower rates among older women in areas with lower population density.

[Social learning as an uncertainty-reduction strategy: an adaptationist approach].

PubMed

Nakanishi, Daisuke; Kameda, Tatsuya; Shinada, Mizuho

2003-04-01

Social learning is an effective mechanism to reduce uncertainty about environmental knowledge, helping individuals adopt an adaptive behavior in the environment at small cost. Although this is evident for learning about temporally stable targets (e.g., acquiring avoidance of toxic foods culturally), the functional value of social learning in a temporally unstable environment is less clear; knowledge acquired by social learning may be outdated. This paper addressed adaptive values of social learning in a non-stationary environment empirically. When individual learning about the non-stationary environment is costly, a hawk-dove-game-like equilibrium is expected to emerge in the population, where members who engage in costly individual learning and members who skip the information search and free-ride on other members' search efforts coexist at a stable ratio. Such a "producer-scrounger" structure should qualify effectiveness of social/cultural learning severely, especially "conformity bias" when using social information (Boyd & Richerson, 1985). We tested these predictions by an experiment implementing a non-stationary uncertain environment in a laboratory. The results supported our thesis. Implications of these findings and some future directions were discussed.

Direct folding simulation of helical proteins using an effective polarizable bond force field.

PubMed

Duan, Lili; Zhu, Tong; Ji, Changge; Zhang, Qinggang; Zhang, John Z H

2017-06-14

We report a direct folding study of seven helical proteins (, Trpcage, , C34, N36, , ) ranging from 17 to 53 amino acids through standard molecular dynamics simulations using a recently developed polarizable force field-Effective Polarizable Bond (EPB) method. The backbone RMSDs, radius of gyrations, native contacts and native helix content are in good agreement with the experimental results. Cluster analysis has also verified that these folded structures with the highest population are in good agreement with their corresponding native structures for these proteins. In addition, the free energy landscape of seven proteins in the two dimensional space comprised of RMSD and radius of gyration proved that these folded structures are indeed of the lowest energy conformations. However, when the corresponding simulations were performed using the standard (nonpolarizable) AMBER force fields, no stable folded structures were observed for these proteins. Comparison of the simulation results based on a polarizable EPB force field and a nonpolarizable AMBER force field clearly demonstrates the importance of polarization in the folding of stable helical structures.

The ESS and replicator equation in matrix games under time constraints.

PubMed

Garay, József; Cressman, Ross; Móri, Tamás F; Varga, Tamás

2018-06-01

Recently, we introduced the class of matrix games under time constraints and characterized the concept of (monomorphic) evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in them. We are now interested in how the ESS is related to the existence and stability of equilibria for polymorphic populations. We point out that, although the ESS may no longer be a polymorphic equilibrium, there is a connection between them. Specifically, the polymorphic state at which the average strategy of the active individuals in the population is equal to the ESS is an equilibrium of the polymorphic model. Moreover, in the case when there are only two pure strategies, a polymorphic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable under the replicator equation for the pure-strategy polymorphic model if and only if it corresponds to an ESS. Finally, we prove that a strict Nash equilibrium is a pure-strategy ESS that is a locally asymptotically stable equilibrium of the replicator equation in n-strategy time-constrained matrix games.

Rainwater use by irrigated cotton measured with stable isotopes of water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As the world’s population increases, more pressure will be applied to existing groundwater resources to produce the necessary food and fiber to feed and clothe the population. While some groundwater systems used for agriculture are recharged, others such as the Southern Ogallala Aquifer are likely ...

EVALUATION OF A NON-LETHAL SAMPLING TECHNIQUE FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF MERCURY (HG) CONCENTRATIONS AND STABLE-NITROGEN (15N/14N) ISOTOPE RATIOS IN LARGE MOUTH BASS (MICROPTERUS SALMOIDES)

EPA Science Inventory

Contaminant bioaccumulation studies often rely on fish muscle filets as the tissue of choice for the measurement of nitrogen stable isotope ratios ( 15N) and mercury (Hg). Lethal sampling techniques may not be suitable for studies on limited populations from smaller sized aquati...

Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Schultz, Stewart T.

2004-01-01

Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite–host or predator–prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus (Pachycereus schottii) – senita moth (Upiga virescens) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre–adult survival of the pollinating seed–consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

Divergence of gastropod life history in contrasting thermal environments in a geothermal lake.

PubMed

Johansson, M P; Ermold, F; Kristjánsson, B K; Laurila, A

2016-10-01

Experiments using natural populations have provided mixed support for thermal adaptation models, probably because the conditions are often confounded with additional environmental factors like seasonality. The contrasting geothermal environments within Lake Mývatn, northern Iceland, provide a unique opportunity to evaluate thermal adaptation models using closely located natural populations. We conducted laboratory common garden and field reciprocal transplant experiments to investigate how thermal origin influences the life history of Radix balthica snails originating from stable cold (6 °C), stable warm (23 °C) thermal environments or from areas with seasonal temperature variation. Supporting thermal optimality models, warm-origin snails survived poorly at 6 °C in the common garden experiment and better than cold-origin and seasonal-origin snails in the warm habitat in the reciprocal transplant experiment. Contrary to thermal adaptation models, growth rate in both experiments was highest in the warm populations irrespective of temperature, indicating cogradient variation. The optimal temperatures for growth and reproduction were similar irrespective of origin, but cold-origin snails always had the lowest performance, and seasonal-origin snails often performed at an intermediate level compared to snails originating in either stable environment. Our results indicate that central life-history traits can differ in their mode of evolution, with survival following the predictions of thermal optimality models, whereas ecological constraints have shaped the evolution of growth rates in local populations. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Simulating Heterogeneous Tumor Cell Populations

PubMed Central

Bar-Sagi, Dafna; Mishra, Bud

2016-01-01

Certain tumor phenomena, like metabolic heterogeneity and local stable regions of chronic hypoxia, signify a tumor’s resistance to therapy. Although recent research has shed light on the intracellular mechanisms of cancer metabolic reprogramming, little is known about how tumors become metabolically heterogeneous or chronically hypoxic, namely the initial conditions and spatiotemporal dynamics that drive these cell population conditions. To study these aspects, we developed a minimal, spatially-resolved simulation framework for modeling tissue-scale mixed populations of cells based on diffusible particles the cells consume and release, the concentrations of which determine their behavior in arbitrarily complex ways, and on stochastic reproduction. We simulate cell populations that self-sort to facilitate metabolic symbiosis, that grow according to tumor-stroma signaling patterns, and that give rise to stable local regions of chronic hypoxia near blood vessels. We raise two novel questions in the context of these results: (1) How will two metabolically symbiotic cell subpopulations self-sort in the presence of glucose, oxygen, and lactate gradients? We observe a robust pattern of alternating striations. (2) What is the proper time scale to observe stable local regions of chronic hypoxia? We observe the stability is a function of the balance of three factors related to O2—diffusion rate, local vessel release rate, and viable and hypoxic tumor cell consumption rate. We anticipate our simulation framework will help researchers design better experiments and generate novel hypotheses to better understand dynamic, emergent whole-tumor behavior. PMID:28030620

Specific Image Characteristics Influence Attitudes about Chimpanzee Conservation and Use as Pets

PubMed Central

Ross, Stephen R.; Vreeman, Vivian M.; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.

2011-01-01

Chimpanzees are endangered in their native Africa but in the United States, they are housed not only in zoos and research centers but owned privately as pets and performers. In 2008, survey data revealed that the public is less likely to think that chimpanzees are endangered compared to other great apes, and that this is likely the result of media misportrayals in movies, television and advertisements. Here, we use an experimental survey paradigm with composite images of chimpanzees to determine the effects of specific image characteristics. We found that those viewing a photograph of a chimpanzee with a human standing nearby were 35.5% more likely to consider wild populations to be stable/healthy compared to those seeing the exact same picture without a human. Likewise, the presence of a human in the photograph increases the likelihood that they consider chimpanzees as appealing as a pet. We also found that respondents seeing images in which chimpanzees are shown in typically human settings (such as an office space) were more likely to perceive wild populations as being stable and healthy compared to those seeing chimpanzees in other contexts. These findings shed light on the way that media portrayals of chimpanzees influence public attitudes about this important and endangered species. PMID:21779372

Specific image characteristics influence attitudes about chimpanzee conservation and use as pets.

PubMed

Ross, Stephen R; Vreeman, Vivian M; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V

2011-01-01

Chimpanzees are endangered in their native Africa but in the United States, they are housed not only in zoos and research centers but owned privately as pets and performers. In 2008, survey data revealed that the public is less likely to think that chimpanzees are endangered compared to other great apes, and that this is likely the result of media misportrayals in movies, television and advertisements. Here, we use an experimental survey paradigm with composite images of chimpanzees to determine the effects of specific image characteristics. We found that those viewing a photograph of a chimpanzee with a human standing nearby were 35.5% more likely to consider wild populations to be stable/healthy compared to those seeing the exact same picture without a human. Likewise, the presence of a human in the photograph increases the likelihood that they consider chimpanzees as appealing as a pet. We also found that respondents seeing images in which chimpanzees are shown in typically human settings (such as an office space) were more likely to perceive wild populations as being stable and healthy compared to those seeing chimpanzees in other contexts. These findings shed light on the way that media portrayals of chimpanzees influence public attitudes about this important and endangered species.

Turn stability in beta-hairpin peptides: Investigation of peptides containing 3:5 type I G1 bulge turns.

PubMed

Blandl, Tamas; Cochran, Andrea G; Skelton, Nicholas J

2003-02-01

The turn-forming ability of a series of three-residue sequences was investigated by substituting them into a well-characterized beta-hairpin peptide. The starting scaffold, bhpW, is a disulfide-cyclized 10-residue peptide that folds into a stable beta-hairpin with two antiparallel strands connected by a two-residue reverse turn. Substitution of the central two residues with the three-residue test sequences leads to less stable hairpins, as judged by thiol-disulfide equilibrium measurements. However, analysis of NMR parameters indicated that each molecule retains a significant folded population, and that the type of turn adopted by the three-residue sequence is the same in all cases. The solution structure of a selected peptide with a PDG turn contained an antiparallel beta-hairpin with a 3:5 type I + G1 bulge turn. Analysis of the energetic contributions of individual turn residues in the series of peptides indicates that substitution effects have significant context dependence, limiting the predictive power of individual amino acid propensities for turn formation. The most stable and least stable sequences were also substituted into a more stable disulfide-cyclized scaffold and a linear beta-hairpin scaffold. The relative stabilities remained the same, suggesting that experimental measurements in the bhpW context are a useful way to evaluate turn stability for use in protein design projects. Moreover, these scaffolds are capable of displaying a diverse set of turns, which can be exploited for the mimicry of protein loops or for generating libraries of reverse turns.

Blue and Black Cloth Targets: Effects of Size, Shape, and Color on Stable Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) Attraction.

PubMed

Hogsette, Jerome A; Foil, Lane D

2018-04-02

Stable fly management is challenging because of the fly's dispersal behavior and its tendency to remain on the host only while feeding. Optically attractive traps have been used to survey and sometimes reduce adult populations. Insecticide-treated blue and black cloth targets developed for tsetse fly management in Africa were found to be attractive to stable flies in the United States, and various evaluations were conducted in Louisiana and Florida. Tests using untreated targets were designed to answer questions about configuration, size, and color relative to efficacy and stability in high winds. Studies with electric grid targets and with targets paired with Olson traps showed cloth target color attraction in the following decreasing order: black > blue-black > blue. A solid black target is easier to make than a blue-black target because no sewing is involved. Attraction was not affected when flat 1-m2 targets were formed into cylinders, despite the limited view of the blue and black colors together. There was no reduction in attraction when the 1-m2 cylindrical targets were compared with smaller (63 × 30 cm high) cylindrical targets. In addition, there was no difference in attraction between the small blue-black, blue, and black targets. Significance of findings and implications of potential uses for treated targets are discussed. Target attraction was indicated by the numbers of stable flies captured on an Olson sticky trap placed 30 cm from the target. Although this system is adequate for field research, it greatly underestimates the actual numbers of stable flies attracted to treated targets.

Heritable influences on behavioural problems from early childhood to mid-adolescence: evidence for genetic stability and innovation.

PubMed

Lewis, G J; Plomin, R

2015-07-01

Although behavioural problems (e.g., anxiety, conduct, hyperactivity, peer problems) are known to be heritable both in early childhood and in adolescence, limited work has examined prediction across these ages, and none using a genetically informative sample. We examined, first, whether parental ratings of behavioural problems (indexed by the Strengths and Difficulties questionnaire) at ages 4, 7, 9, 12, and 16 years were stable across these ages. Second, we examined the extent to which stability reflected genetic or environmental effects through multivariate quantitative genetic analysis on data from a large (n > 3000) population (UK) sample of monozygotic and dizygotic twins. Behavioural problems in early childhood (age 4 years) showed significant associations with the corresponding behavioural problem at all subsequent ages. Moreover, stable genetic influences were observed across ages, indicating that biological bases underlying behavioural problems in adolescence are underpinned by genetic influences expressed as early as age 4 years. However, genetic and environmental innovations were also observed at each age. These observations indicate that genetic factors are important for understanding stable individual differences in behavioural problems across childhood and adolescence, although novel genetic influences also facilitate change in such behaviours.

Managing feral cats on a university's campuses: how many are there and is sterilization having an effect?

PubMed

Jones, Amanda L; Downs, Colleen T

2011-01-01

Worldwide domestic and feral cat (Felis catus) numbers have increased. Concerns regarding high populations of feral cats in urban areas include wildlife predation, public nuisance, and disease. This study aimed to estimate the size of the feral cat population on 5 campuses of the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to determine whether sterilization has an effect and to make management recommendations. The study used both the total count and mark-recapture methods to estimate the feral cat population on each campus. The study chose a noninvasive method of taking photographs to "mark" individuals and record those who were sterilized. The study estimated a total of 186 cats on all campuses and density at 161 cats km(-2). There was a negative relationship between sterilization and numbers. Sites with higher sterilization showed a lower proportion of younger cats. At the average sterilization of 55%, the population, according to predictions, would remain stable at fecundity, survival, and immigration rates reported by cat caretakers. However, caretakers underestimated cat abundance by 7 ± 37 SD%. Caretakers' feral cat sterilization and feeding programs appear to provide a service to the university community. Key management recommendations were to increase sterilization to 90% to reduce the population over the long term and to raise funds to support the costs incurred by voluntary cat caretakers.

Annual survival and recruitment in a Ruby-throated Hummingbird population, excluding the effect of transient individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilton, B.; Miller, M.W.

2003-01-01

We estimated annual apparent survival, recruitment, and rate of population growth of breeding Ruby-throated Hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris), while controlling for transients, by using 18 years of capture-mark-recapture data collected during 1984-2001 at Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History near York, South Carolina. Resident males had lower apparent survival (0.30 +/- 0.05 SE) than females (0.43 +/- 0.04). Estimates of apparent survival did not differ by age. Point estimates suggested that newly banded males were less likely than females to be residents, but standard errors of these estimates overlapped (males: 0.60 +/- 0.14 SE; females: 0.67 +/- 0.09). Estimated female recruitment was 0.60 +/- 0.06 SE, meaning that 60% of adult females present in any given year had entered the population during the previous year. Our estimate for rate of change indicated the population of female hummingbirds was stable during the study period (1.04 +/- 0.04 SE). We suggest an annual goal of greater than or equal to 64 adult females and greater than or equal to 64 immature females released per banding area to enable rigorous future tests for effects of covariates on population dynamics. Development of a broader cooperating network of hummingbird banders in eastern North America could allow tests for regional or metapopulation dynamics in this species.

Theoretical models of the influence of genomic architecture on the dynamics of speciation.

PubMed

Flaxman, Samuel M; Wacholder, Aaron C; Feder, Jeffrey L; Nosil, Patrik

2014-08-01

A long-standing problem in evolutionary biology has been determining whether and how gradual, incremental changes at the gene level can account for rapid speciation and bursts of adaptive radiation. Using genome-scale computer simulations, we extend previous theory showing how gradual adaptive change can generate nonlinear population transitions, resulting in the rapid formation of new, reproductively isolated species. We show that these transitions occur via a mechanism rooted in a basic property of biological heredity: the organization of genes in genomes. Genomic organization of genes facilitates two processes: (i) the build-up of statistical associations among large numbers of genes and (ii) the action of divergent selection on persistent combinations of alleles. When a population has accumulated a critical amount of standing, divergently selected variation, the combination of these two processes allows many mutations of small effect to act synergistically and precipitously split one population into two discontinuous, reproductively isolated groups. Periods of allopatry, chromosomal linkage among loci, and large-effect alleles can facilitate this process under some conditions, but are not required for it. Our results complement and extend existing theory on alternative stable states during population divergence, distinct phases of speciation and the rapid emergence of multilocus barriers to gene flow. The results are thus a step towards aligning population genomic theory with modern empirical studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities.

PubMed

Storkey, J; Holst, N; Bøjer, O Q; Bigongiali, F; Bocci, G; Colbach, N; Dorner, Z; Riemens, M M; Sartorato, I; Sønderskov, M; Verschwele, A

2015-04-01

A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated 'fitness contours' (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments.

One year of high-intensity interval training improves exercise capacity, but not left ventricular function in stable heart transplant recipients: a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rustad, Lene A; Nytrøen, Kari; Amundsen, Brage H; Gullestad, Lars; Aakhus, Svend

2014-02-01

Heart transplant recipients have lower exercise capacity and impaired cardiac function compared with the normal population. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) improves exercise capacity and cardiac function in patients with heart failure and hypertension, but the effect on cardiac function in stable heart transplant recipients is not known. Thus, we investigated whether HIIT improved cardiac function and exercise capacity in stable heart transplant recipients by use of comprehensive rest- and exercise-echocardiography and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Fifty-two clinically stable heart transplant recipients were randomised either to HIIT (4 × 4 minutes at 85-95% of peak heart rate three times per week for eight weeks) or to control. Three such eight-week periods were distributed throughout one year. Echocardiography (rest and submaximal exercise) and cardiopulmonary exercise testing were performed at baseline and follow-up. One year of HIIT increased VO 2peak from 27.7 ± 5.5 at baseline to 30.9 ± 5.0 ml/kg/min at follow-up, while the control group remained unchanged (28.5 ± 7.0 vs. 28.0 ± 6.7 ml/kg per min, p < 0.001 for difference between the groups). Systolic and diastolic left ventricular functions at rest and during exercise were generally unchanged by HIIT. Whereas HIIT is feasible in heart transplant recipients and effectively improves exercise capacity, it does not alter cardiac systolic and diastolic function significantly. Thus, the observed augmentation in exercise capacity is best explained by extra-cardiac adaptive mechanisms.

Optimal control of predator-prey mathematical model with infection and harvesting on prey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diva Amalia, R. U.; Fatmawati; Windarto; Khusnul Arif, Didik

2018-03-01

This paper presents a predator-prey mathematical model with infection and harvesting on prey. The infection and harvesting only occur on the prey population and it assumed that the prey infection would not infect predator population. We analysed the mathematical model of predator-prey with infection and harvesting in prey. Optimal control, which is a prevention of the prey infection, also applied in the model and denoted as U. The purpose of the control is to increase the susceptible prey. The analytical result showed that the model has five equilibriums, namely the extinction equilibrium (E 0), the infection free and predator extinction equilibrium (E 1), the infection free equilibrium (E 2), the predator extinction equilibrium (E 3), and the coexistence equilibrium (E 4). The extinction equilibrium (E 0) is not stable. The infection free and predator extinction equilibrium (E 1), the infection free equilibrium (E 2), also the predator extinction equilibrium (E 3), are locally asymptotically stable with some certain conditions. The coexistence equilibrium (E 4) tends to be locally asymptotically stable. Afterwards, by using the Maximum Pontryagin Principle, we obtained the existence of optimal control U. From numerical simulation, we can conclude that the control could increase the population of susceptible prey and decrease the infected prey.

Human Oral Mucosa and Gingiva

PubMed Central

Zhang, Q.Z.; Nguyen, A.L.; Yu, W.H.; Le, A.D.

2012-01-01

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) represent a heterogeneous population of progenitor cells with self-renewal and multipotent differentiation potential. Aside from their regenerative role, extensive in vitro and in vivo studies have demonstrated that MSCs are capable of potent immunomodulatory effects on a variety of innate and adaptive immune cells. In this article, we will review recent experimental studies on the characterization of a unique population of MSCs derived from human oral mucosa and gingiva, especially their immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory functions and their application in the treatment of several in vivo models of inflammatory diseases. The ease of isolation, accessible tissue source, and rapid ex vivo expansion, with maintenance of stable stem-cell-like phenotypes, render oral mucosa- and gingiva-derived MSCs a promising alternative cell source for MSC-based therapies. PMID:22988012

Unifying models of dialect spread and extinction using surface tension dynamics

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We provide a unified mathematical explanation of two classical forms of spatial linguistic spread. The wave model describes the radiation of linguistic change outwards from a central focus. Changes can also jump between population centres in a process known as hierarchical diffusion. It has recently been proposed that the spatial evolution of dialects can be understood using surface tension at linguistic boundaries. Here we show that the inclusion of long-range interactions in the surface tension model generates both wave-like spread, and hierarchical diffusion, and that it is surface tension that is the dominant effect in deciding the stable distribution of dialect patterns. We generalize the model to allow population mixing which can induce shrinkage of linguistic domains, or destroy dialect regions from within. PMID:29410847

Marine effect of introduced salmonids: Prey consumption by exotic steelhead and anadromous brown trout in the Patagonian Continental Shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ciancio, J.; Beauchamp, D.A.; Pascual, M.

2010-01-01

On the basis of stable isotope analysis, we estimated the marine diet of the most abundant anadromous salmonid species in Patagonian Atlantic basins. The results were coupled with bioenergetic and population models to estimate the consumption of food by salmonids and was compared with that by seabirds, the most abundant top predators in the area. Amphipods were the main salmonid prey, followed by sprat, silversides, squid, and euphausiids. The total consumption, even assuming large anadromous salmonid populations, represented <5% of the total consumption by seabirds. We also identified the particular seabird colonies and artisanal fisheries with which salmonid trophic interactions at a more local scale could be significant. ?? 2010, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

The Effect of Inhibitory Neuron on the Evolution Model of Higher-Order Coupling Neural Oscillator Population

PubMed Central

Qi, Yi; Wang, Rubin; Jiao, Xianfa; Du, Ying

2014-01-01

We proposed a higher-order coupling neural network model including the inhibitory neurons and examined the dynamical evolution of average number density and phase-neural coding under the spontaneous activity and external stimulating condition. The results indicated that increase of inhibitory coupling strength will cause decrease of average number density, whereas increase of excitatory coupling strength will cause increase of stable amplitude of average number density. Whether the neural oscillator population is able to enter the new synchronous oscillation or not is determined by excitatory and inhibitory coupling strength. In the presence of external stimulation, the evolution of the average number density is dependent upon the external stimulation and the coupling term in which the dominator will determine the final evolution. PMID:24516505

Population, mortality and place of death in Germany (1950-2050) - implications for end-of-life care in the future.

PubMed

Simon, S T; Gomes, B; Koeskeroglu, P; Higginson, I J; Bausewein, C

2012-11-01

European populations are ageing, but data on the associated end-of-life care needs are scarce. This study aimed to analyse population, mortality and place of death (PoD) trends in Germany since 1950, and to project mortality by PoD until 2050. Secondary analysis of national statistics on population, mortality and PoD by age and gender. Future numbers and proportions of deaths by PoD - hospital deaths (HDs) and non-hospital deaths (NHDs) - were based on recent trends (2005-2009). Linear models accounted for the effect of age and gender. The German population increased by 19.0% between 1950 and 2002, and has remained relatively stable ever since. However, it is expected that it will decrease (15.4%) from 2009 to 2050 (from 81.8 to 69.4 million). The annual number of deaths has shown an increasing trend, except for a decrease in 1975-2004. A 26.0% increase is expected from 2009 to 2050 (854,544 to 1,077,000 deaths). Older people (age ≥ 75 years) will account for 87.8% of all deaths in 2050 (64.4% in 2009). The proportion of HDs was stable, with an annual mean of 47.0% (range 44.9-47.8%). The models estimated that most people will continue to die outside of hospital in 2050 (48.6 or 54.1%), and absolute numbers of both HDs and NHDs will increase from 2009 to 2050 [HD: by 20.1 million (30.6%); NHD: by 35.5 million (17.0%)]. Unlike in other industrialized countries, most people in Germany die outside of hospital. The need to plan for growing end-of-life care needs and ageing is urgent in Germany but also applies to the rest of Europe. A joint European policy must inform national strategies. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of social versus individual learning in a subdivided population revisited: comparative analysis of three coexistence mechanisms using the inclusive-fitness method.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

2014-03-01

Learning abilities are categorized into social (learning from others) and individual learning (learning on one's own). Despite the typically higher cost of individual learning, there are mechanisms that allow stable coexistence of both learning modes in a single population. In this paper, we investigate by means of mathematical modeling how the effect of spatial structure on evolutionary outcomes of pure social and individual learning strategies depends on the mechanisms for coexistence. We model a spatially structured population based on the infinite-island framework and consider three scenarios that differ in coexistence mechanisms. Using the inclusive-fitness method, we derive the equilibrium frequency of social learners and the genetic load of social learning (defined as average fecundity reduction caused by the presence of social learning) in terms of some summary statistics, such as relatedness, for each of the three scenarios and compare the results. This comparative analysis not only reconciles previous models that made contradictory predictions as to the effect of spatial structure on the equilibrium frequency of social learners but also derives a simple mathematical rule that determines the sign of the genetic load (i.e. whether or not social learning contributes to the mean fecundity of the population). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reproductive responses to spatial and temporal prey availability in a coastal Arctic fox population.

PubMed

Eide, Nina E; Stien, Audun; Prestrud, Pål; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Fuglei, Eva

2012-05-01

1. Input of external subsidies in the Arctic may have substantial effects on predator populations that otherwise would have been limited by low local primary productivity. 2. We explore life-history traits, age-specific fecundity, litter sizes and survival, and the population dynamics of an Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population to explore the influence of the spatial distribution and temporal availability of its main prey; including both resident and migrating (external) prey resources. 3. This study reveals that highly predictable cross-boundary subsidies from the marine food web, acting through seasonal access to seabirds, sustain larger local Arctic fox populations. Arctic fox dens located close to the coast in Svalbard were found to have higher occupancy rates, as expected from both high availability and high temporal and spatial predictability of prey resources (temporally stable external subsidies). Whereas the occupancy rate of inland dens varied between years in relation to the abundance of reindeer carcasses (temporally varying resident prey). 4. With regard to demography, juvenile Arctic foxes in Svalbard have lower survival rates and a high age of first reproduction compared with other populations. We suggest this may be caused by a lack of unoccupied dens and a saturated population. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Biocontrol in an impulsive predator-prey model.

PubMed

Terry, Alan J

2014-10-01

We study a model for biological pest control (or "biocontrol") in which a pest population is controlled by a program of periodic releases of a fixed yield of predators that prey on the pest. Releases are represented as impulsive increases in the predator population. Between releases, predator-pest dynamics evolve according to a predator-prey model with some fairly general properties: the pest population grows logistically in the absence of predation; the predator functional response is either of Beddington-DeAngelis type or Holling type II; the predator per capita birth rate is bounded above by a constant multiple of the predator functional response; and the predator per capita death rate is allowed to be decreasing in the predator functional response and increasing in the predator population, though the special case in which it is constant is permitted too. We prove that, when the predator functional response is of Beddington-DeAngelis type and the predators are not sufficiently voracious, then the biocontrol program will fail to reduce the pest population below a particular economic threshold, regardless of the frequency or yield of the releases. We prove also that our model possesses a pest-eradication solution, which is both locally and globally stable provided that predators are sufficiently voracious and that releases occur sufficiently often. We establish, curiously, that the pest-eradication solution can be locally stable whilst not being globally stable, the upshot of which is that, if we delay a biocontrol response to a new pest invasion, then this can change the outcome of the response from pest eradication to pest persistence. Finally, we state a number of specific examples for our model, and, for one of these examples, we corroborate parts of our analysis by numerical simulations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population-Level Metrics of Trophic Structure Based on Stable Isotopes and Their Application to Invasion Ecology

PubMed Central

Jackson, Michelle C.; Donohue, Ian; Jackson, Andrew L.; Britton, J. Robert; Harper, David M.; Grey, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Biological invasions are a significant driver of human-induced global change and many ecosystems sustain sympatric invaders. Interactions occurring among these invaders have important implications for ecosystem structure and functioning, yet they are poorly understood. Here we apply newly developed metrics derived from stable isotope data to provide quantitative measures of trophic diversity within populations or species. We then use these to test the hypothesis that sympatric invaders belonging to the same functional feeding group occupy a smaller isotopic niche than their allopatric counterparts. Two introduced, globally important, benthic omnivores, Louisiana swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and carp (Cyprinus carpio), are sympatric in Lake Naivasha, Kenya. We applied our metrics to an 8-year data set encompassing the establishment of carp in the lake. We found a strong asymmetric interaction between the two invasive populations, as indicated by inverse correlations between carp abundance and measures of crayfish trophic diversity. Lack of isotopic niche overlap between carp and crayfish in the majority of years indicated a predominantly indirect interaction. We suggest that carp-induced habitat alteration reduced the diversity of crayfish prey, resulting in a reduction in the dietary niche of crayfish. Stable isotopes provide an integrated signal of diet over space and time, offering an appropriate scale for the study of population niches, but few isotope studies have retained the often insightful information revealed by variability among individuals in isotope values. Our population metrics incorporate such variation, are robust to the vagaries of sample size and are a useful additional tool to reveal subtle dietary interactions among species. Although we have demonstrated their applicability specifically using a detailed temporal dataset of species invasion in a lake, they have a wide array of potential ecological applications. PMID:22363724

App Usage Factor: A Simple Metric to Compare the Population Impact of Mobile Medical Apps.

PubMed

Lewis, Thomas Lorchan; Wyatt, Jeremy C

2015-08-19

One factor when assessing the quality of mobile apps is quantifying the impact of a given app on a population. There is currently no metric which can be used to compare the population impact of a mobile app across different health care disciplines. The objective of this study is to create a novel metric to characterize the impact of a mobile app on a population. We developed the simple novel metric, app usage factor (AUF), defined as the logarithm of the product of the number of active users of a mobile app with the median number of daily uses of the app. The behavior of this metric was modeled using simulated modeling in Python, a general-purpose programming language. Three simulations were conducted to explore the temporal and numerical stability of our metric and a simulated app ecosystem model using a simulated dataset of 20,000 apps. Simulations confirmed the metric was stable between predicted usage limits and remained stable at extremes of these limits. Analysis of a simulated dataset of 20,000 apps calculated an average value for the app usage factor of 4.90 (SD 0.78). A temporal simulation showed that the metric remained stable over time and suitable limits for its use were identified. A key component when assessing app risk and potential harm is understanding the potential population impact of each mobile app. Our metric has many potential uses for a wide range of stakeholders in the app ecosystem, including users, regulators, developers, and health care professionals. Furthermore, this metric forms part of the overall estimate of risk and potential for harm or benefit posed by a mobile medical app. We identify the merits and limitations of this metric, as well as potential avenues for future validation and research.

Population-level metrics of trophic structure based on stable isotopes and their application to invasion ecology.

PubMed

Jackson, Michelle C; Donohue, Ian; Jackson, Andrew L; Britton, J Robert; Harper, David M; Grey, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Biological invasions are a significant driver of human-induced global change and many ecosystems sustain sympatric invaders. Interactions occurring among these invaders have important implications for ecosystem structure and functioning, yet they are poorly understood. Here we apply newly developed metrics derived from stable isotope data to provide quantitative measures of trophic diversity within populations or species. We then use these to test the hypothesis that sympatric invaders belonging to the same functional feeding group occupy a smaller isotopic niche than their allopatric counterparts. Two introduced, globally important, benthic omnivores, Louisiana swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and carp (Cyprinus carpio), are sympatric in Lake Naivasha, Kenya. We applied our metrics to an 8-year data set encompassing the establishment of carp in the lake. We found a strong asymmetric interaction between the two invasive populations, as indicated by inverse correlations between carp abundance and measures of crayfish trophic diversity. Lack of isotopic niche overlap between carp and crayfish in the majority of years indicated a predominantly indirect interaction. We suggest that carp-induced habitat alteration reduced the diversity of crayfish prey, resulting in a reduction in the dietary niche of crayfish. Stable isotopes provide an integrated signal of diet over space and time, offering an appropriate scale for the study of population niches, but few isotope studies have retained the often insightful information revealed by variability among individuals in isotope values. Our population metrics incorporate such variation, are robust to the vagaries of sample size and are a useful additional tool to reveal subtle dietary interactions among species. Although we have demonstrated their applicability specifically using a detailed temporal dataset of species invasion in a lake, they have a wide array of potential ecological applications.

Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

2001-01-01

Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

An assessment of the relationships between overweight, obesity, related chronic health conditions and worker absenteeism.

PubMed

Howard, Jeffrey T; Potter, Lloyd B

2014-01-01

Worker absenteeism is an important area of study within the field of occupational health. Prior studies have linked the presence of obesity to higher rates of absenteeism, but have not examined whether or not the relationship is moderated by the presence of other chronic health conditions or whether or not the relationships have been stable over time. Data from the 2000 and 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative sample of the US population, were analyzed to determine the extent to which the presence of 5 obesity-related chronic health conditions moderates the relationship between overweight/obesity and worker absenteeism, and whether or not these relationships are stable over time. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationships between overweight/obesity, the obesity-related chronic health conditions and worker absenteeism, while controlling for demographic, socio-economic, occupational, health related and behavioral variables. The findings suggest that obesity (p < 0.01) is related to higher rates of worker illness absence, and that the presence of diabetes positively moderates this relationship (p < 0.05) within the severely obese population (class III -€“ BMI ‰≥ 40). Other health conditions, including hypertension, coronary heart disease, other heart disease and stroke, were not found to have significant moderating effects. The evidence suggests that obesity is associated with a higher likelihood of worker illness absenteeism, and that the effect is doubled for those with both class III obesity (BMI ≥ 40) and diabetes. The moderating effect between class III obesity and diabetes was observed only in 2010, indicating that this may be a relatively new phenomenon. © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity . Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic evaluation of everolimus versus sorafenib for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma after failure of first-line sunitinib.

PubMed

Casciano, Roman; Chulikavit, Maruit; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Liu, Zhimei; Baladi, Jean-Francois; Wang, Xufang; Robertson, Justin; Garrison, Lou

2011-01-01

A recent indirect comparison study showed that sunitinib-refractory metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients treated with everolimus are expected to have improved overall survival outcomes compared to patients treated with sorafenib. This analysis examines the likely cost-effectiveness of everolimus versus sorafenib in this setting from a US payer perspective. A Markov model was developed to simulate a cohort of sunitinib-refractory mRCC patients and to estimate the cost per incremental life-years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Markov states included are stable disease without adverse events, stable disease with adverse events, disease progression, and death. Transition probabilities were estimated using a subset of the RECORD-1 patient population receiving everolimus after sunitinib, and a comparable population receiving sorafenib in a single-arm phase II study. Costs of antitumor therapies were based on wholesale acquisition cost. Health state costs accounted for physician visits, tests, adverse events, postprogression therapy, and end-of-life care. The model extrapolated beyond the trial time horizon for up to 6 years based on published trial data. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. The estimated gain over sorafenib treatment was 1.273 LYs (0.916 QALYs) at an incremental cost of $81,643. The deterministic analysis resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $64,155/LYG ($89,160/QALY). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that results were highly consistent across simulations. As the ICER fell within the cost per QALY range for many other widely used oncology medicines, everolimus is projected to be a cost-effective treatment relative to sorafenib for sunitinib-refractory mRCC. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Evolution Dynamic of the Rock-Scissors-Paper Game Based on a Quasi Birth and Death Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Qian; Fang, Debin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Jin, Chen; Ren, Qiyu

2016-06-01

Stochasticity plays an important role in the evolutionary dynamic of cyclic dominance within a finite population. To investigate the stochastic evolution process of the behaviour of bounded rational individuals, we model the Rock-Scissors-Paper (RSP) game as a finite, state dependent Quasi Birth and Death (QBD) process. We assume that bounded rational players can adjust their strategies by imitating the successful strategy according to the payoffs of the last round of the game, and then analyse the limiting distribution of the QBD process for the game stochastic evolutionary dynamic. The numerical experiments results are exhibited as pseudo colour ternary heat maps. Comparisons of these diagrams shows that the convergence property of long run equilibrium of the RSP game in populations depends on population size and the parameter of the payoff matrix and noise factor. The long run equilibrium is asymptotically stable, neutrally stable and unstable respectively according to the normalised parameters in the payoff matrix. Moreover, the results show that the distribution probability becomes more concentrated with a larger population size. This indicates that increasing the population size also increases the convergence speed of the stochastic evolution process while simultaneously reducing the influence of the noise factor.

Stochastic Evolution Dynamic of the Rock-Scissors-Paper Game Based on a Quasi Birth and Death Process.

PubMed

Yu, Qian; Fang, Debin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Jin, Chen; Ren, Qiyu

2016-06-27

Stochasticity plays an important role in the evolutionary dynamic of cyclic dominance within a finite population. To investigate the stochastic evolution process of the behaviour of bounded rational individuals, we model the Rock-Scissors-Paper (RSP) game as a finite, state dependent Quasi Birth and Death (QBD) process. We assume that bounded rational players can adjust their strategies by imitating the successful strategy according to the payoffs of the last round of the game, and then analyse the limiting distribution of the QBD process for the game stochastic evolutionary dynamic. The numerical experiments results are exhibited as pseudo colour ternary heat maps. Comparisons of these diagrams shows that the convergence property of long run equilibrium of the RSP game in populations depends on population size and the parameter of the payoff matrix and noise factor. The long run equilibrium is asymptotically stable, neutrally stable and unstable respectively according to the normalised parameters in the payoff matrix. Moreover, the results show that the distribution probability becomes more concentrated with a larger population size. This indicates that increasing the population size also increases the convergence speed of the stochastic evolution process while simultaneously reducing the influence of the noise factor.

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

Uncovering patterns of spring migration in the monarch butterfly using stable isotopes and demographic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, R.; Miller, N.; Wassenaar, L.; Hobson, K.

2010-12-01

Each spring, millions of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) migrate up to 3000 km from central Mexico to re-colonize eastern North America. However, despite centuries of research, the patterns of re-colonization are not well understood. We combined stable-hydrogen (δD) and -carbon (δ13C) isotope measurements with demographic models to test (1) whether individuals sampled in the northern part of the breeding range in the Great Lakes originate directly from Mexico or are second generation individuals born in the southern US and (2) to estimate whether populations on the eastern seaboard migrate longitudinally over the Appalachians or originate directly from the Gulf Coast. In the Great Lakes, we found that the majority of individuals were second-generation monarchs born in the Gulf Coast and Central regions of the US. However, 25% individuals originated directly from Mexico and we estimated that these individuals produced the majority of offspring born in the Great Lakes region during June. On the eastern seaboard, we found the majority of monarchs (88%) originated in the mid-west and Great Lakes regions, providing the first direct evidence that second generation monarchs born in June complete a (trans-) longitudinal migration across the Appalachian mountains. The remaining individuals (12%) originated from parents that migrated directly from the Gulf coast during early spring. Our results demonstrate how stable isotopes, when combined with ecological data, can provide insights into patterns of connectivity in migratory insects that have been impossible to test using conventional techniques. The migration patterns presented here have important implications for predicting future changes in population size and for developing effective conservation plans for this species.

β-Amyloid binding in elderly subjects with declining or stable episodic memory function measured with PET and [¹¹C]AZD2184.

PubMed

Mattsson, Patrik; Forsberg, Anton; Persson, Jonas; Nyberg, Lars; Nilsson, Lars-Göran; Halldin, Christer; Farde, Lars

2015-09-01

Cognitive decline has been suggested as an early marker for later onset of Alzheimer's disease. We therefore explored the relationship between decline in episodic memory and β-amyloid using positron emission tomography (PET) and [(11)C]AZD2184, a radioligand with potential to detect low levels of amyloid deposits. Healthy elderly subjects with declining (n = 10) or stable (n = 10) episodic memory over 15 years were recruited from the population-based Betula study and examined with PET. Brain radioactivity was measured after intravenous administration of [(11)C]AZD2184. The binding potential BP ND was calculated using linear graphical analysis with the cerebellum as reference region. The binding of [(11)C]AZD2184 in total grey matter was generally low in the declining group, whereas some binding could be observed in the stable group. Mean BP ND was significantly higher in the stable group compared to the declining group (p = 0.019). An observation was that the three subjects with the highest BP ND were ApoE ε4 allele carriers. We conclude that cognitive decline in the general population does not seem to stand by itself as an early predictor for amyloid deposits.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, Kenneth B.; Holland, Christy K.

2013-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents.

PubMed

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2013-01-07

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form I(CAV) = P(r)/f (where P(r) is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

PubMed Central

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2015-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs. PMID:23221109

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the estimation of spread rate for a biological population

Treesearch

Jim Clark; Lajos Horváth; Mark Lewis

2001-01-01

We propose a nonparametric estimator for the rate of spread of an introduced population. We prove that the limit distribution of the estimator is normal or stable, depending on the behavior of the moment generating function. We show that resampling methods can also be used to approximate the distribution of the estimators.

Qualities and Characteristics of the Child Abusing Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breiner, Sander J.

Most child abuse has a violent quality. A review of the research on child abusers reveals some interesting psychosocial and historical characteristics. Research has shown violence to be more likely in less stable populations, in persons with poor driving records and histories of severe accidents, and in those who are undereducated and unsuccessful…

Integrated crop pollination: Combining strategies to ensure stable and sustainable yields of pollination-dependent crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Meeting the nutritional needs of our growing human population will be increasingly dependent on bees and other pollinators that provide the essential delivery of pollen to crop flowers during bloom. Honey bees have experienced population declines in some regions, and similar changes are evident for ...

DIETARY RECONSTRUCTION OF AN EARLY TO MIDDLE HOLOCENE HUMAN POPULATION FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST: INSIGHTS FROM ADVANCED STABLE ISOTOPE MIXING MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The inherent sampling and preservational biases of the archaeological record make it difficult
to quantify prehistoric human diets, especially in coastal settings, where populations had access to a wide range of marine and terrestrial food sources. In certain cases, geochemica...

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

Geochemical record of high emperor penguin populations during the Little Ice Age at Amanda Bay, Antarctica.

PubMed

Huang, Tao; Yang, Lianjiao; Chu, Zhuding; Sun, Liguang; Yin, Xijie

2016-09-15

Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are sensitive to the Antarctic climate change because they breed on the fast sea ice. Studies of paleohistory for the emperor penguin are rare, due to the lack of archives on land. In this study, we obtained an emperor penguin ornithogenic sediment profile (PI) and performed geochronological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses on the sediments and feather remains. Two radiocarbon dates of penguin feathers in PI indicate that emperor penguins colonized Amanda Bay as early as CE 1540. By using the bio-elements (P, Se, Hg, Zn and Cd) in sediments and stable isotope values (δ(15)N and δ(13)C) in feathers, we inferred relative population size and dietary change of emperor penguins during the period of CE 1540-2008, respectively. An increase in population size with depleted N isotope ratios for emperor penguins on N island at Amanda Bay during the Little Ice Age (CE 1540-1866) was observed, suggesting that cold climate affected the penguin's breeding habitat, prey availability and thus their population and dietary composition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-sensitivity stable-isotope probing by a quantitative terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism protocol.

PubMed

Andeer, Peter; Strand, Stuart E; Stahl, David A

2012-01-01

Stable-isotope probing (SIP) has proved a valuable cultivation-independent tool for linking specific microbial populations to selected functions in various natural and engineered systems. However, application of SIP to microbial populations with relatively minor buoyant density increases, such as populations that utilize compounds as a nitrogen source, results in reduced resolution of labeled populations. We therefore developed a tandem quantitative PCR (qPCR)-TRFLP (terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism) protocol that improves resolution of detection by quantifying specific taxonomic groups in gradient fractions. This method combines well-controlled amplification with TRFLP analysis to quantify relative taxon abundance in amplicon pools of FAM-labeled PCR products, using the intercalating dye EvaGreen to monitor amplification. Method accuracy was evaluated using mixtures of cloned 16S rRNA genes, DNA extracted from low- and high-G+C bacterial isolates (Escherichia coli, Rhodococcus, Variovorax, and Microbacterium), and DNA from soil microcosms amended with known amounts of genomic DNA from bacterial isolates. Improved resolution of minor shifts in buoyant density relative to TRFLP analysis alone was confirmed using well-controlled SIP analyses.

Rare beneficial mutations can halt Muller's ratchet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balick, Daniel; Goyal, Sidhartha; Jerison, Elizabeth; Neher, Richard; Shraiman, Boris; Desai, Michael

2012-02-01

In viral, bacterial, and other asexual populations, the vast majority of non-neutral mutations are deleterious. This motivates the application of models without beneficial mutations. Here we show that the presence of surprisingly few compensatory mutations halts fitness decay in these models. Production of deleterious mutations is balanced by purifying selection, stabilizing the fitness distribution. However, stochastic vanishing of fitness classes can lead to slow fitness decay (i.e. Muller's ratchet). For weakly deleterious mutations, production overwhelms purification, rapidly decreasing population fitness. We show that when beneficial mutations are introduced, a stable steady state emerges in the form of a dynamic mutation-selection balance. We argue this state is generic for all mutation rates and population sizes, and is reached as an end state as genomes become saturated by either beneficial or deleterious mutations. Assuming all mutations have the same magnitude selective effect, we calculate the fraction of beneficial mutations necessary to maintain the dynamic balance. This may explain the unexpected maintenance of asexual genomes, as in mitochondria, in the presence of selection. This will affect in the statistics of genetic diversity in these populations.

The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

The Role of piRNA-Mediated Epigenetic Silencing in the Population Dynamics of Transposable Elements in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Lee, Yuh Chwen G.

2015-01-01

The piwi-interacting RNAs (piRNA) are small RNAs that target selfish transposable elements (TEs) in many animal genomes. Until now, piRNAs’ role in TE population dynamics has only been discussed in the context of their suppression of TE transposition, which alone is not sufficient to account for the skewed frequency spectrum and stable containment of TEs. On the other hand, euchromatic TEs can be epigenetically silenced via piRNA-dependent heterochromatin formation and, similar to the widely known “Position-effect variegation”, heterochromatin induced by TEs can “spread” into nearby genes. We hypothesized that the piRNA-mediated spread of heterochromatin from TEs into adjacent genes has deleterious functional effects and leads to selection against individual TEs. Unlike previously identified deleterious effects of TEs due to the physical disruption of DNA, the functional effect we investigated here is mediated through the epigenetic influences of TEs. We found that the repressive chromatin mark, H3K9me, is elevated in sequences adjacent to euchromatic TEs at multiple developmental stages in Drosophila melanogaster. Furthermore, the heterochromatic states of genes depend not only on the number of and distance from adjacent TEs, but also on the likelihood that their nearest TEs are targeted by piRNAs. These variations in chromatin status probably have functional consequences, causing genes near TEs to have lower expression. Importantly, we found stronger selection against TEs that lead to higher H3K9me enrichment of adjacent genes, demonstrating the pervasive evolutionary consequences of TE-induced epigenetic silencing. Because of the intrinsic biological mechanism of piRNA amplification, spread of TE heterochromatin could result in the theoretically required synergistic deleterious effects of TE insertions for stable containment of TE copy number. The indirect deleterious impact of piRNA-mediated epigenetic silencing of TEs is a previously unexplored, yet important, element for the evolutionary dynamics of TEs. PMID:26042931

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed Central

Meyer, Carolyn B.; Meyer, Joseph S.; Francisco, Alex B.; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion. PMID:26799815

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed

Meyer, Carolyn B; Meyer, Joseph S; Francisco, Alex B; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4-46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion.

Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analyses of safinamide in subjects with Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Loprete, Luca; Leuratti, Chiara; Cattaneo, Carlo; Thapar, Mita M; Farrell, Colm; Sardina, Marco

2016-10-01

Safinamide is an orally administered α -aminoamide derivative with both dopaminergic and non-dopaminergic properties. Nonlinear mixed effects models for population pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) analyses were developed using records from, respectively, 623 and 668 patients belonging to two Phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind efficacy studies. The aim was to estimate safinamide population PK parameters in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) on stable levodopa therapy, and to develop a model of safinamide effect on the PD phase of normal functioning (ON-time). The final models were internally evaluated using visual predictive checks (VPCs), prediction corrected-VPC, and nonparametric bootstrap analysis. Safinamide profiles were adequately described by a linear one-compartmental model with first-order absorption and elimination. CL/F, Vd/F, and KA (95% confidence interval [CI]) were 4.96 (4.73-5.21) L/h, 166 (158-174) L, and 0.582 (0.335-0.829) h -1 , respectively. CL/F and Vd/F increased with body weight, while age, gender, renal function, and exposure to levodopa did not influence safinamide PK. The observed ON-time values were adequately described by a linear model, with time in the study period as dependent variable, and rate of ON-time change and baseline plus offset effect as slope and intercept parameters. Safinamide treatment resulted in an increase in ON-time of 0.73 h (week 4), with further ON-time increase with the same slope as placebo. The increase was not influenced by age, levodopa, or safinamide exposure. The population models adequately describe the population PK of safinamide and safinamide effect on ON-time. No dose adjustments in elderly and mild to moderate renally impaired patients are requested.

A generalized population dynamics model for reproductive interference with absolute density dependence.

PubMed

Kyogoku, Daisuke; Sota, Teiji

2017-05-17

Interspecific mating interactions, or reproductive interference, can affect population dynamics, species distribution and abundance. Previous population dynamics models have assumed that the impact of frequency-dependent reproductive interference depends on the relative abundances of species. However, this assumption could be an oversimplification inappropriate for making quantitative predictions. Therefore, a more general model to forecast population dynamics in the presence of reproductive interference is required. Here we developed a population dynamics model to describe the absolute density dependence of reproductive interference, which appears likely when encounter rate between individuals is important. Our model (i) can produce diverse shapes of isoclines depending on parameter values and (ii) predicts weaker reproductive interference when absolute density is low. These novel characteristics can create conditions where coexistence is stable and independent from the initial conditions. We assessed the utility of our model in an empirical study using an experimental pair of seed beetle species, Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis. Reproductive interference became stronger with increasing total beetle density even when the frequencies of the two species were kept constant. Our model described the effects of absolute density and showed a better fit to the empirical data than the existing model overall.

Biodiveristy and Stability of Aboriginal Salmon Fisheries in the Fraser River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesbitt, H. K.; Moore, J.

2015-12-01

Natural watersheds are hierarchical networks that may confer stability to ecosystem functions through integration of upstream biodiversity, whereby upstream asset diversification stabilizes the aggregate downstream through the portfolio effect. Here we show that riverine structure and its associated diversity confer stability of salmon catch and lengthened fishing seasons for Aboriginal fisheries on the Fraser River (1370km) in BC, Canada, the second longest dam-free salmon migration route in North America. In Canada, Aboriginal people have rights to fish for food, social, and ceremonial (FSC) purposes. FSC fisheries are located throughout the Fraser watershed and have access to varying levels of salmon diversity based on their location. For instance, fisheries at the mouth of the river have access to all of the salmon that spawn throughout the entire watershed, thus integrating across the complete diversity profile of the entire river. In contrast, fisheries in the headwaters have access to fewer salmon species and populations and thus fish from a much less diverse portfolio. These spatial gradients of diversity within watersheds provide a natural contrast for quantifying the effects of different types of diversity on interannual resource stability and seasonal availability. We acquired weekly and yearly catch totals from 1983 to 2012 (30 years) for Chinook, chum, coho, pink, and sockeye salmon for 21 FSC fishing sites throughout the Fraser River watershed from Fisheries and Oceans Canada. We examined how both population- and species-level diversity affects catch stability and season length at each site by quantifying year-to-year variability and within-year season length respectively. Salmon species diversity made fisheries up to 28% more stable in their catch than predicted with 3.7 more weeks to fish on average. Fisheries with access to high population diversity had up to 3.8 times more stable catch and 3 times longer seasons than less diverse fisheries. We show that both species- and population-level diversity support food security in First Nations fisheries. These data indicate that protecting multiple dimensions of biodiversity, such as through preserving the natural structure of watersheds, will promote food security of Aboriginal people.

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katzner, Todd E.; Nelson, David M.; Braham, Melissa A.; Doyle, Jacqueline M.; Fernandez, Nadia B.; Duerr, Adam E.; Bloom, Peter H.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Miller, Tricia A.; Culver, Renee C. E.; Braswell, Loan; DeWoody, J. Andrew

2017-01-01

Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ2H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA-killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ2H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental-scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local-scale renewable energy can have continental-scale consequences.

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation.

PubMed

Katzner, Todd E; Nelson, David M; Braham, Melissa A; Doyle, Jacqueline M; Fernandez, Nadia B; Duerr, Adam E; Bloom, Peter H; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Miller, Tricia A; Culver, Renee C E; Braswell, Loan; DeWoody, J Andrew

2017-04-01

Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ 2 H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA-killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ 2 H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental-scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local-scale renewable energy can have continental-scale consequences. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population-level consequences of antipredator behavior: a metaphysiological model based on the functional ecology of the leaf-eared mouse.

PubMed

Ramos-Jiliberto, Rodrigo; González-Olivares, Eduardo; Bozinovic, Francisco

2002-08-01

We present a predator-prey metaphysiological model, based on the available behavioral and physiological information of the sigmodontine rodent Phyllotis darwini. The model is focused on the population-level consequences of the antipredator behavior, performed by the rodent population, which is assumed to be an inducible response of predation avoidance. The decrease in vulnerability is explicitly considered to have two associated costs: a decreasing foraging success and an increasing metabolic loss. The model analysis was carried out on a reduced form of the system by means of numerical and analytical tools. We evaluated the stability properties of equilibrium points in the phase plane, and carried out bifurcation analyses of rodent equilibrium density under varying conditions of three relevant parameters. The bifurcation parameters chosen represent predator avoidance effectiveness (A), foraging cost of antipredator behavior (C(1)'), and activity-metabolism cost (C(4)'). Our analysis suggests that the trade-offs involved in antipredator behavior plays a fundamental role in the stability properties of the system. Under conditions of high foraging cost, stability decreases as antipredator effectiveness increases. Under the complementary scenario (not considering the highest foraging costs), the equilibria are either stable when both costs are low, or unstable when both costs are higher, independent of antipredator effectiveness. No evidence of stabilizing effects of antipredator behavior was found. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population

PubMed Central

van der Sande, Marianne; Teunis, Peter; Sabel, Rob

2008-01-01

Background Governments are preparing for a potential influenza pandemic. Therefore they need data to assess the possible impact of interventions. Face-masks worn by the general population could be an accessible and affordable intervention, if effective when worn under routine circumstances. Methodology We assessed transmission reduction potential provided by personal respirators, surgical masks and home-made masks when worn during a variety of activities by healthy volunteers and a simulated patient. Principal Findings All types of masks reduced aerosol exposure, relatively stable over time, unaffected by duration of wear or type of activity, but with a high degree of individual variation. Personal respirators were more efficient than surgical masks, which were more efficient than home-made masks. Regardless of mask type, children were less well protected. Outward protection (mask wearing by a mechanical head) was less effective than inward protection (mask wearing by healthy volunteers). Conclusions/Significance Any type of general mask use is likely to decrease viral exposure and infection risk on a population level, in spite of imperfect fit and imperfect adherence, personal respirators providing most protection. Masks worn by patients may not offer as great a degree of protection against aerosol transmission. PMID:18612429

Professional and home-made face masks reduce exposure to respiratory infections among the general population.

PubMed

van der Sande, Marianne; Teunis, Peter; Sabel, Rob

2008-07-09

Governments are preparing for a potential influenza pandemic. Therefore they need data to assess the possible impact of interventions. Face-masks worn by the general population could be an accessible and affordable intervention, if effective when worn under routine circumstances. We assessed transmission reduction potential provided by personal respirators, surgical masks and home-made masks when worn during a variety of activities by healthy volunteers and a simulated patient. All types of masks reduced aerosol exposure, relatively stable over time, unaffected by duration of wear or type of activity, but with a high degree of individual variation. Personal respirators were more efficient than surgical masks, which were more efficient than home-made masks. Regardless of mask type, children were less well protected. Outward protection (mask wearing by a mechanical head) was less effective than inward protection (mask wearing by healthy volunteers). Any type of general mask use is likely to decrease viral exposure and infection risk on a population level, in spite of imperfect fit and imperfect adherence, personal respirators providing most protection. Masks worn by patients may not offer as great a degree of protection against aerosol transmission.

Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment

PubMed Central

Logan, Michael L.; Cox, Robert M.; Calsbeek, Ryan

2014-01-01

Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. PMID:25225361

Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment.

PubMed

Logan, Michael L; Cox, Robert M; Calsbeek, Ryan

2014-09-30

Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming.

Discriminating the effects of spatial extent and population size in cyclic competition among species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamouroux, David; Eule, Stephan; Geisel, Theo; Nagler, Jan

2012-02-01

Quantifying and understanding the stability and biodiversity of ecosystems is a major task in biological physics as well as in theoretical ecology. From the perspective of game theory, this is highly relevant for questions pertaining to the emergence of cooperation or the coexistence of cyclically competing species. The latter has been recently proposed as a paradigm for biodiversity and it has been shown that the mobility of individuals can support the stability of biodiversity by the formation of spirals. In this contribution, we present a population model for species under cyclic competition that extends earlier lattice models to allow the single cells to accommodate more than one individual by introducing a per cell carrying capacity. We confirm that the emergence of spirals induce a transition from an unstable to a stable regime. This transition however does not appear to be sharp and we find a broad intermediate regime that exhibits an ambiguous behavior. The separation of the two regimes by the usual scaling analysis is thus hampered. The newly introduced carrying capacity offers an alternative way of characterizing the transition. We thus overcome the original limitations by separately analyzing the effect of spatial extent and population size.

Evidence That Marine Reserves Enhance Resilience to Climatic Impacts

PubMed Central

Micheli, Fiorenza; Saenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Greenley, Ashley; Vazquez, Leonardo; Espinoza Montes, Jose Antonio; Rossetto, Marisa; De Leo, Giulio A.

2012-01-01

Establishment of marine protected areas, including fully protected marine reserves, is one of the few management tools available for local communities to combat the deleterious effect of large scale environmental impacts, including global climate change, on ocean ecosystems. Despite the common hope that reserves play this role, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of local protection against global problems is lacking. Here we show that marine reserves increase the resilience of marine populations to a mass mortality event possibly caused by climate-driven hypoxia. Despite high and widespread adult mortality of benthic invertebrates in Baja California, Mexico, that affected populations both within and outside marine reserves, juvenile replenishment of the species that supports local economies, the pink abalone Haliotis corrugata, remained stable within reserves because of large body size and high egg production of the protected adults. Thus, local protection provided resilience through greater resistance and faster recovery of protected populations. Moreover, this benefit extended to adjacent unprotected areas through larval spillover across the edges of the reserves. While climate change mitigation is being debated, coastal communities have few tools to slow down negative impacts of global environmental shifts. These results show that marine protected areas can provide such protection. PMID:22855690

Evidence that marine reserves enhance resilience to climatic impacts.

PubMed

Micheli, Fiorenza; Saenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Greenley, Ashley; Vazquez, Leonardo; Espinoza Montes, Jose Antonio; Rossetto, Marisa; De Leo, Giulio A

2012-01-01

Establishment of marine protected areas, including fully protected marine reserves, is one of the few management tools available for local communities to combat the deleterious effect of large scale environmental impacts, including global climate change, on ocean ecosystems. Despite the common hope that reserves play this role, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of local protection against global problems is lacking. Here we show that marine reserves increase the resilience of marine populations to a mass mortality event possibly caused by climate-driven hypoxia. Despite high and widespread adult mortality of benthic invertebrates in Baja California, Mexico, that affected populations both within and outside marine reserves, juvenile replenishment of the species that supports local economies, the pink abalone Haliotis corrugata, remained stable within reserves because of large body size and high egg production of the protected adults. Thus, local protection provided resilience through greater resistance and faster recovery of protected populations. Moreover, this benefit extended to adjacent unprotected areas through larval spillover across the edges of the reserves. While climate change mitigation is being debated, coastal communities have few tools to slow down negative impacts of global environmental shifts. These results show that marine protected areas can provide such protection.

Conservation status of the American horseshoe crab, (Limulus polyphemus): A regional assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; Brockmann, H. Jane; Beekey, Mark A.; King, Timothy L.; Millard, Michael J.; Zaldívar-Rae, Jaime

2017-01-01

Horseshoe crabs have persisted for more than 200 million years, and fossil forms date to 450 million years ago. The American horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus), one of four extant horseshoe crab species, is found along the Atlantic coastline of North America ranging from Alabama to Maine, USA with another distinct population on the coasts of Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo in the Yucatán Peninsula, México. Although the American horseshoe crab tolerates broad environmental conditions, exploitation and habitat loss threaten the species. We assessed the conservation status of the American horseshoe crab by comprehensively reviewing available scientific information on its range, life history, genetic structure, population trends and analyses, major threats, and conservation. We structured the status assessment by six genetically-informed regions and accounted for sub-regional differences in environmental conditions, threats, and management. The transnational regions are Gulf of Maine (USA), Mid-Atlantic (USA), Southeast (USA), Florida Atlantic (USA), Northeast Gulf of México (USA), and Yucatán Peninsula (México). Our conclusion is that the American horseshoe crab species is vulnerable to local extirpation and that the degree and extent of risk vary among and within the regions. The risk is elevated in the Gulf of Maine region due to limited and fragmented habitat. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Mid-Atlantic region are stable in the Delaware Bay area, and regulatory controls are in place, but the risk is elevated in the New England area as evidenced by continuing declines understood to be caused by over-harvest. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Southeast region are stable or increasing. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Florida Atlantic region show mixed trends among areas, and continuing population reductions at the embayment level have poorly understood causes. Within the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, causes of population trends are poorly understood and currently there is no active management of horseshoe crabs. Horseshoe crabs within México have conservation protection based on limited and fragmented habitat and geographic isolation from other regions, but elevated risk applies to the horseshoe crabs in the Yucatán Peninsula region until sufficient data can confirm population stability. Future species status throughout its range will depend on the effectiveness of conservation to mitigate habitat loss and manage for sustainable harvest among and within regions.

Intra-population variation in activity ranges, diel patterns, movement rates, and habitat use of American alligators in a subtropical estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian M.

2013-12-01

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intra-population variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

Differences in the metabolic response to temperature acclimation in nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations from contrasting thermal environments.

PubMed

Bruneaux, Matthieu; Nikinmaa, Mikko; Laine, Veronika N; Lindström, Kai; Primmer, Craig R; Vasemägi, Anti

2014-12-01

Metabolic responses to temperature changes are crucial for maintaining the energy balance of an individual under seasonal temperature fluctuations. To understand how such responses differ in recently isolated populations (<11,000 years), we studied four Baltic populations of the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius L.) from coastal locations (seasonal temperature range, 0-29°C) and from colder, more thermally stable spring-fed ponds (1-19°C). Salinity and predation pressure also differed between these locations. We acclimatized wild-caught fish to 6, 11, and 19°C in common garden conditions for 4-6 months and determined their aerobic scope and hepatosomatic index (HSI). The freshwater fish from the colder (2-14°C), predator-free pond population exhibited complete temperature compensation for their aerobic scope, whereas the coastal populations underwent metabolic rate reduction during the cold treatment. Coastal populations had higher HSI than the colder pond population at all temperatures, with cold acclimation accentuating this effect. The metabolic rates and HSI for freshwater fish from the pond with higher predation pressure were more similar to those of the coastal ones. Our results suggest that ontogenic effects and/or genetic differentiation are responsible for differential energy storage and metabolic responses between these populations. This work demonstrates the metabolic versatility of the nine-spined stickleback and the pertinence of an energetic framework to better understand potential local adaptations. It also demonstrates that instead of using a single acclimation temperature thermal reaction norms should be compared when studying individuals originating from different thermal environments in a common garden setting. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Role of Alternative Food in Controlling Chaotic Dynamics in a Predator-Prey Model with Disease in the Predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Krishna Pada; Bairagi, Nandadulal; Sen, Prabir

It is generally, but not always, accepted that alternative food plays a stabilizing role in predator-prey interaction. Parasites, on the other hand, have the ability to change both the qualitative and quantitative dynamics of its host population. In recent times, researchers are showing growing interest in formulating models that integrate both the ecological and epidemiological aspects. The present paper deals with the effect of alternative food on a predator-prey system with disease in the predator population. We show that the system, in the absence of alternative food, exhibits different dynamics viz. stable coexistence, limit cycle oscillations, period-doubling bifurcation and chaos when infection rate is gradually increased. However, when predator consumes alternative food coupled with its focal prey, the system returns to regular oscillatory state from chaotic state through period-halving bifurcations. Our study shows that alternative food may have larger impact on the community structure and may increase population persistence.

Pre-Hispanic agricultural decline prior to the Spanish Conquest in southern Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Zachary P.; Horn, Sally P.; Finkelstein, David B.

2013-08-01

Archeological and paleoenvironmental records from southern Central America attribute population collapse to the Spanish Conquest about 500 years ago. Paleoclimate records from the circum-Caribbean have shown evidence of severe, regional droughts that contributed to the collapse of the Mayan Civilization, but there are few records of these droughts in southern Central America and no records of their effects on prehistoric populations in the region. Here we present a high-resolution lake sediment record of prehistoric agricultural activities using bulk sediment stable carbon isotopes from Laguna Zoncho, Costa Rica. We find isotopic evidence that agriculture was nearly absent from the watershed approximately 220 years prior to the Spanish arrival in Costa Rica and identify two distinct periods of agricultural decline, 1150-970 and 860-640 cal yr BP, which correspond to severe droughts in central Mexico. We attribute decreases in agriculture to a weakened Central American monsoon, which would have shortened the growing season at Laguna Zoncho, reduced crop yields, and negatively affected prehistoric populations.

Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

2012-05-01

Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models.

PubMed

Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

2012-05-01

Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

Game theory in the death galaxy: interaction of cancer and stromal cells in tumour microenvironment.

PubMed

Wu, Amy; Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D; Sturm, James C; Austin, Robert H

2014-08-06

Preventing relapse is the major challenge to effective therapy in cancer. Within the tumour, stromal (ST) cells play an important role in cancer progression and the emergence of drug resistance. During cancer treatment, the fitness of cancer cells can be enhanced by ST cells because their molecular signalling interaction delays the drug-induced apoptosis of cancer cells. On the other hand, competition among cancer and ST cells for space or resources should not be ignored. We explore the population dynamics of multiple myeloma (MM) versus bone marrow ST cells by using an experimental microecology that we call the death galaxy, with a stable drug gradient and connected microhabitats. Evolutionary game theory is a quantitative way to capture the frequency-dependent nature of interactive populations. Therefore, we use evolutionary game theory to model the populations in the death galaxy with the gradients of pay-offs and successfully predict the future densities of MM and ST cells. We discuss the possible clinical use of such analysis for predicting cancer progression.

Long-term effect of latanoprost/timolol fixed combination in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension: A prospective, observational, noninterventional study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Prospective, observational studies that enroll large numbers of patients with few exclusion criteria may better reflect actual ongoing clinical experience than randomized clinical trials. Our purpose was to obtain efficacy and safety information from a cohort of subjects exposed to latanoprost/timolol fixed combination (FC) for ≥18 months using a prospective, observational design. Methods In all, 577 office-based ophthalmologists in Germany switched 2339 patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension to latanoprost/timolol FC for medical reasons. Follow-up visits were scheduled for every 6 months over 24 months; physicians followed usual care routines. Intraocular pressure (IOP), visual field status, optic nerve head findings, and adverse events were recorded. Efficacy parameters were evaluated for the per protocol (PP) population; the safety population included subjects receiving ≥1 drop of FC. Physicians rated efficacy, tolerability, and subject compliance at month 24. Results Of the 2339 subjects switched to latanoprost/timolol FC (safety population), the primary reasons for switching were inadequate IOP reduction (78.2%) and desire to simplify treatment with once-daily dosing (29.4%; multiple reasons possible). In all, 1317 (56.3%) subjects completed the study, and 1028 (44.0%) were included in the PP population. Most discontinuations were due to loss to follow-up. Change in mean IOP from baseline to month 6 was -4.0 ± 4.31 mmHg, a reduction that was maintained throughout (P < 0.05 for change at all time points). By investigator assessments, optic disc parameters and visual field were stable over 24 months, and there was no relationship between IOP reduction over 24 months and development of a visual field defect. More than 90% of physicians rated latanoprost/timolol FC as "very good" or "good" for efficacy (PP population), tolerability, and compliance. The FC was safe and well tolerated. No change in iris color was reported by most subjects (83.1%) at month 24. Conclusions Over 24 months, latanoprost/timolol FC effectively lowers IOP levels and is well tolerated in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension who change from their previous ocular hypotensive therapy for medical reasons. Investigator assessments found optic disc parameters and visual field to be stable throughout 24 months of follow-up. PMID:20825668

[Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases: long term results of five year long preventive intervention in 12-year old boys (ten year prospective study)].

PubMed

Rozanov, V B; Aleksandov, A A; Shugaeva, E N; Perova, N V; Maslennikova, G Ia; Smirnova, S G; Olfer'ev, A M

2007-01-01

In a longitudinal cohort (prevention group, n=213, comparison group, n=163) of 10-year prospective follow-up we addressed efficacy of 5-year-long multifactor preventive intervention, conducted in a sample of population of 12 year old boys. Preventive intervention was carried out both at populational level and among persons with risk factors of development of cardiovascular diseases with the use of group, individual, and partly family approaches, and was directed at rationalization of nutrition, elevation of physical activity and prevention of harmful habits. During first 3 years of prevention we succeeded to achieve stable statistically significant lowering of mean levels of total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and atherogeneity index, as well as to affect fatty component of body mass (skinfold thickness). Long term effect of 5-year long preventive intervention manifested as significantly lower level of systolic blood pressure, lower prevalence of low levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol, smaller increment of low density lipoprotein cholesterol and index of atherogeneity in the prevention group. These results evidence that prevention of main factors of risk of development of cardiovascular diseases (obesity, arterial hypertension, disorders of lipid composition of the blood, and low physical activity) in child and adolescent age in the period of active growth and development is feasible, effective, safe and is able to lead to decrease of levels of these factors in adults, but should last uninterruptedly until formation of stable habits of healthy life style.

Clinical trial: oral colon-release parnaparin sodium tablets (CB-01-05 MMX) for active left-sided ulcerative colitis.

PubMed

Celasco, G; Papa, A; Jones, R; Moro, L; Bozzella, R; Surace, M M; Naccari, G C; Gasbarrini, G

2010-02-01

The administration of parnaparin sodium as oral colon-release tablets (CB-01-05 MMX) has been proposed as a novel approach for the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). To assess the efficacy and the tolerability of 8 weeks' oral daily administration of 210 mg of parnaparin sodium compared with placebo in subjects treated with stable-doses of oral aminosalicylates. This multicenter, randomized, double-blind proof of concept trial compared the efficacy of CB-01-05 MMX 210 mg tablets to placebo in 141 subjects with mild to moderately active left-sided UC treated with stable-doses of aminosalicylates. The efficacy was assessed by clinical activity index (CAI), endoscopic index (EI) and histological score (HS). A total of 121 subjects (61 in test group and 60 in control group) formed the per protocol (PP) population. After 8 weeks of treatment, clinical remission was achieved in 83.6% of the CB-01-05 MMX group, and in 63.3% in the comparator group (P = 0.011). This effect was also significantly evident in the test group at week 4 (P = 0.028). A significant difference was also detected in rectal bleeding, (disappeared respectively in 75.4% and 55.0%; P = 0.018), and in mucosal friability (recovered respectively in 80.3% and in 56.7%; P = 0.005). CB-01-05 MMX was safe and significantly effective in treating subjects with mild-to-moderate left-sided UC treated with stable-doses of aminosalicylates.

Genetic basis of nitrogen use efficiency and yield stability across environments in winter rapeseed.

PubMed

Bouchet, Anne-Sophie; Laperche, Anne; Bissuel-Belaygue, Christine; Baron, Cécile; Morice, Jérôme; Rousseau-Gueutin, Mathieu; Dheu, Jean-Eric; George, Pierre; Pinochet, Xavier; Foubert, Thomas; Maes, Olivier; Dugué, Damien; Guinot, Florent; Nesi, Nathalie

2016-09-15

Nitrogen use efficiency is an important breeding trait that can be modified to improve the sustainability of many crop species used in agriculture. Rapeseed is a major oil crop with low nitrogen use efficiency, making its production highly dependent on nitrogen input. This complex trait is suspected to be sensitive to genotype × environment interactions, especially genotype × nitrogen interactions. Therefore, phenotyping diverse rapeseed populations under a dense network of trials is a powerful approach to study nitrogen use efficiency in this crop. The present study aimed to determine the quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with yield in winter oilseed rape and to assess the stability of these regions under contrasting nitrogen conditions for the purpose of increasing nitrogen use efficiency. Genome-wide association studies and linkage analyses were performed on two diversity sets and two doubled-haploid populations. These populations were densely genotyped, and yield-related traits were scored in a multi-environment design including seven French locations, six growing seasons (2009 to 2014) and two nitrogen nutrition levels (optimal versus limited). Very few genotype × nitrogen interactions were detected, and a large proportion of the QTL were stable across nitrogen nutrition conditions. In contrast, strong genotype × trial interactions in which most of the QTL were specific to a single trial were found. To obtain further insight into the QTL × environment interactions, genetic analyses of ecovalence were performed to identify the genomic regions contributing to the genotype × nitrogen and genotype × trial interactions. Fifty-one critical genomic regions contributing to the additive genetic control of yield-associated traits were identified, and the structural organization of these regions in the genome was investigated. Our results demonstrated that the effect of the trial was greater than the effect of nitrogen nutrition levels on seed yield-related traits under our experimental conditions. Nevertheless, critical genomic regions associated with yield that were stable across environments were identified in rapeseed.

Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen as markers of dietary variation among sociocultural subgroups of Inuit in Greenland.

PubMed

Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina V L; Dahl-Petersen, Inger K; Buchardt, Bjørn

2017-09-10

We assessed the use of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen as biomarkers for traditional versus store-bought food among the Inuit. Furthermore, we compared the isotope patterns among sociocultural population groups. As a part of a country-wide health survey in Greenland during 2005-2010, we analyzed the isotope composition of toenails from 1025 adult Inuit and meat of common species hunted for food. Information on diet and sociocultural variables was collected by interviews. Weighted by sex and place of residence to the total population of Inuit in Greenland, the average δ 13 C value in toenails was -20.2‰ and the δ 15 N value was 12.0‰ which are higher than in a general Danish omnivorous population. Both isotopes were significantly associated with other biomarkers of marine food and with results of a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). The percentage of marine food in the diet was estimated at 21% from the mean δ 13 C value, 25% from the mean δ 15 N value, and 23% from the FFQ. Nail samples for analysis of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen were convenient to collect during a large population health survey among the Inuit. Isotope enrichment levels showed statistically significant associations with other biomarkers for consumption of marine food and with results of an FFQ and were used to estimate the percentage of marine food in the diet. Isotope levels were significantly associated with a novel score of sociocultural transition. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Trends of Thyroid Cancer in Israel: 1980–2012

PubMed Central

Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing worldwide, while mortality from thyroid cancer is stable or decreasing. Consequently, survival rates are rising. We describe time trends in the incidence, mortality, and 5-year survival of thyroid cancer in Israel in 1980–2012, in light of the global trends. Methods: Israel National Cancer Registry database provided information regarding thyroid cancer incidence and vital status, which enabled computation of survival rates. The Central Bureau of Statistics database provided information on thyroid cancer mortality. Incidence and mortality rates were age-adjusted and presented by population group (Jews/Arabs) and gender. Relative 5-year survival rates which account for the general population survival in the corresponding time period were presented by population group and gender. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess incidence trends over time. Results: In 1980–2012 significant increases in the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed, with an annual percent change (APC) range of 3.98–6.93, driven almost entirely by papillary carcinoma (APCs 5.75–8.86), while rates of other types of thyroid cancer remained stable or decreased. Furthermore, higher rates of early detection were noted. In 1980–2012, a modest reduction in thyroid cancer mortality was observed in Jewish women (APC −1.07) with no substantial change in Jewish men. The 5-year relative survival after thyroid cancer diagnosis has increased to ≥90% in both population groups and both genders. Conclusions: The Israeli secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence (increasing), mortality (mostly stable), and survival (modestly increasing) closely follow reported global trends. PMID:26886958

A 3-Component System of Competition and Diffusion.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

assume * that the distribution of the populations are determined by competition of’ Lotka - Volterra - * Gause type and simple diffusion. Suppose ui(t,x...diffusive Lotka - Volterra system with three species can have a stable non-constant equilibrium solutions. J. Math. Biol., (in press). [7] Kishimoto, K., Mimura...M. and Yoshida, K., Stable spatlo-temporal oscillations of diffusive Lotka - Volterra systems with three or more species, to appear in J. Math. Biol

Integrating info-gap decision theory with robust population management: a case study using the Mountain Plover.

PubMed

van der Burg, Max Post; Tyre, Andrew J

2011-01-01

Wildlife managers often make decisions under considerable uncertainty. In the most extreme case, a complete lack of data leads to uncertainty that is unquantifiable. Information-gap decision theory deals with assessing management decisions under extreme uncertainty, but it is not widely used in wildlife management. So too, robust population management methods were developed to deal with uncertainties in multiple-model parameters. However, the two methods have not, as yet, been used in tandem to assess population management decisions. We provide a novel combination of the robust population management approach for matrix models with the information-gap decision theory framework for making conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty. We applied our model to the problem of nest survival management in an endangered bird species, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Our results showed that matrix sensitivities suggest that nest management is unlikely to have a strong effect on population growth rate, confirming previous analyses. However, given the amount of uncertainty about adult and juvenile survival, our analysis suggested that maximizing nest marking effort was a more robust decision to maintain a stable population. Focusing on the twin concepts of opportunity and robustness in an information-gap model provides a useful method of assessing conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty.

Managing American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) population qrowth by targeting nesting season vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felton, Shilo K.; Hostetter, Nathan J.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2017-01-01

In populations of long-lived species, adult survival typically has a relatively high influence on population growth. From a management perspective, however, adult survival can be difficult to increase in some instances, so other component rates must be considered to reverse population declines. In North Carolina, USA, management to conserve the American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) targets component vital rates related to fecundity, specifically nest and chick survival. The effectiveness of such a management approach in North Carolina was assessed by creating a three-stage female-based deterministic matrix model. Isoclines were produced from the matrix model to evaluate minimum nest and chick survival rates necessary to reverse population decline, assuming all other vital rates remained stable at mean values. Assuming accurate vital rates, breeding populations within North Carolina appear to be declining. To reverse this decline, combined nest and chick survival would need to increase from 0.14 to ≤ 0.27, a rate that appears to be attainable based on historical estimates. Results are heavily dependent on assumptions of other vital rates, most notably adult survival, revealing the need for accurate estimates of all vital rates to inform management actions. This approach provides valuable insights for evaluating conservation goals for species of concern.

Selection for sex in finite populations.

PubMed

Roze, D

2014-07-01

Finite population size generates interference between selected loci, which has been shown to favour increased rates of recombination. In this article, I present different analytical models exploring selection acting on a 'sex modifier locus' (that affects the relative investment into asexual and sexual reproduction) in a finite population. Two forms of selective forces act on the modifier: direct selection due to intrinsic costs associated with sexual reproduction and indirect selection generated by one or two other loci affecting fitness. The results show that indirect selective forces differ from those acting on a recombination modifier even in the case of a haploid population: in particular, a single selected locus generates indirect selection for sex, while two loci are required in the case of a recombination modifier. This effect stems from the fact that modifier alleles increasing sex escape more easily from low-fitness genetic backgrounds than alleles coding for lower rates of sex. Extrapolating the results from three-locus models to a large number of loci at mutation-selection balance indicates that in the parameter range where indirect selection is strong enough to outweigh a substantial cost of sex, interactions between selected loci have a stronger effect than the sum of individual effects of each selected locus. Comparisons with multilocus simulation results show that such extrapolations may provide correct predictions for the evolutionarily stable rate of sex, unless the cost of sex is high. © 2014 The Author. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Coral reef fish populations can persist without immigration

PubMed Central

Salles, Océane C.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Joannides, Marc; Barbu, Corentin M.; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Almany, Glenn R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Thorrold, Simon R.; Jones, Geoffrey P.; Planes, Serge

2015-01-01

Determining the conditions under which populations may persist requires accurate estimates of demographic parameters, including immigration, local reproductive success, and mortality rates. In marine populations, empirical estimates of these parameters are rare, due at least in part to the pelagic dispersal stage common to most marine organisms. Here, we evaluate population persistence and turnover for a population of orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at Kimbe Island in Papua New Guinea. All fish in the population were sampled and genotyped on five occasions at 2-year intervals spanning eight years. The genetic data enabled estimates of reproductive success retained in the same population (reproductive success to self-recruitment), reproductive success exported to other subpopulations (reproductive success to local connectivity), and immigration and mortality rates of sub-adults and adults. Approximately 50% of the recruits were assigned to parents from the Kimbe Island population and this was stable through the sampling period. Stability in the proportion of local and immigrant settlers is likely due to: low annual mortality rates and stable egg production rates, and the short larval stages and sensory capacities of reef fish larvae. Biannual mortality rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.55 and varied significantly spatially. We used these data to parametrize a model that estimated the probability of the Kimbe Island population persisting in the absence of immigration. The Kimbe Island population was found to persist without significant immigration. Model results suggest the island population persists because the largest of the subpopulations are maintained due to having low mortality and high self-recruitment rates. Our results enable managers to appropriately target and scale actions to maximize persistence likelihood as disturbance frequencies increase. PMID:26582017

Coral reef fish populations can persist without immigration.

PubMed

Salles, Océane C; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Joannides, Marc; Barbu, Corentin M; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Almany, Glenn R; Berumen, Michael L; Thorrold, Simon R; Jones, Geoffrey P; Planes, Serge

2015-11-22

Determining the conditions under which populations may persist requires accurate estimates of demographic parameters, including immigration, local reproductive success, and mortality rates. In marine populations, empirical estimates of these parameters are rare, due at least in part to the pelagic dispersal stage common to most marine organisms. Here, we evaluate population persistence and turnover for a population of orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at Kimbe Island in Papua New Guinea. All fish in the population were sampled and genotyped on five occasions at 2-year intervals spanning eight years. The genetic data enabled estimates of reproductive success retained in the same population (reproductive success to self-recruitment), reproductive success exported to other subpopulations (reproductive success to local connectivity), and immigration and mortality rates of sub-adults and adults. Approximately 50% of the recruits were assigned to parents from the Kimbe Island population and this was stable through the sampling period. Stability in the proportion of local and immigrant settlers is likely due to: low annual mortality rates and stable egg production rates, and the short larval stages and sensory capacities of reef fish larvae. Biannual mortality rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.55 and varied significantly spatially. We used these data to parametrize a model that estimated the probability of the Kimbe Island population persisting in the absence of immigration. The Kimbe Island population was found to persist without significant immigration. Model results suggest the island population persists because the largest of the subpopulations are maintained due to having low mortality and high self-recruitment rates. Our results enable managers to appropriately target and scale actions to maximize persistence likelihood as disturbance frequencies increase. © 2015 The Author(s).

Population-specific demographic estimates provide insights into declines of Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

2007-01-01

Many North American prairie bird populations have recently declined, and the causes of these declines remain largely unknown. To determine whether population limitation occurs during breeding, we evaluated the stability of a population of prairie birds using population-specific values for fecundity and postfledging survival. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 67 female Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys) to determine annual fecundity and evaluate contributing factors such as nest survival and breeding response (number of breeding attempts and dispersal). Collectively, 67 females built 112 nests (1.67 ± 0.07 nests female−1 season−1; range: 1–3); 34 were second nests and 11 were third nests. Daily nest survival estimates were similar for initial and later nests with overall nest survival (DSR19) of 30.7% and 31.7%, respectively. Nest predation was the most common cause of failure (92%). Capture and radiomarking of females did not affect nest survival. Lark Bunting dispersal probabilities increased among females that fledged young from initial nests and females that lost their original nests late in the season. Conservative and liberal estimates of mean annual fecundity were 0.96 ±0.11 and 1.24 ± 0.09 female offspring per female, respectively. Given the fecundity and juvenile-survival estimates for this population, annual adult survival values of 71–77% are necessary to achieve a stable population. Because adult survival of prairie passerines ranges between 55% and 65%, this study area may not be capable of sustaining a stable population in the absence of immigration. We contrast our population assessment with one that assumes indirect values of fecundity and juvenile survival. To elucidate limiting factors, estimation of population-specific demographic parameters is desirable. We present an approach for selecting species and areas for evaluation of population stability.

Cost-effectiveness of long-term outpatient buprenorphine-naloxone treatment for opioid dependence in primary care.

PubMed

Schackman, Bruce R; Leff, Jared A; Polsky, Daniel; Moore, Brent A; Fiellin, David A

2012-06-01

Primary care physicians with appropriate training may prescribe buprenorphine-naloxone (bup/nx) to treat opioid dependence in US office-based settings, where many patients prefer to be treated. Bup/nx is off patent but not available as a generic. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of long-term office-based bup/nx treatment for clinically stable opioid-dependent patients compared to no treatment. A decision analytic model simulated a hypothetical cohort of clinically stable opioid-dependent individuals who have already completed 6 months of office-based bup/nx treatment. Data were from a published cohort study that collected treatment retention, opioid use, and costs for this population, and published quality-of-life weights. Uncertainties in estimated monthly costs and quality-of-life weights were evaluated in probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and the economic value of additional research to reduce these uncertainties was also evaluated. Bup/nx, provider, and patient costs in 2010 US dollars, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios ($/QALY); costs and QALYs are discounted at 3% annually. In the base case, office-based bup/nx for clinically stable patients has a CE ratio of $35,100/QALY compared to no treatment after 24 months, with 64% probability of being < $100,000/QALY in probabilistic sensitivity analysis. With a 50% bup/nx price reduction the CE ratio is $23,000/QALY with 69% probability of being < $100,000/QALY. Alternative quality-of-life weights result in CE ratios of $138,000/QALY and $90,600/QALY. The value of research to reduce quality-of-life uncertainties for 24-month results is $6,400 per person eligible for treatment at the current bup/nx price and $5,100 per person with a 50% bup/nx price reduction. Office-based bup/nx for clinically stable patients may be a cost-effective alternative to no treatment at a threshold of $100,000/QALY depending on assumptions about quality-of-life weights. Additional research about quality-of-life benefits and broader health system and societal cost savings of bup/nx therapy is needed.

Factor Structure, Stability, and Congruence in the Functional Movement Screen

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelleher, Leila K.; Beach, Tyson A. C.; Frost, David M.; Johnson, Andrew M.; Dickey, James P.

2018-01-01

The scoring scheme for the functional movement screen implicitly assumes that the factor structure is consistent, stable, and congruent across different populations. To determine if this is the case, we compared principal components analyses of three samples: a healthy, general population (n = 100), a group of varsity athletes (n = 101), and a…

From American City to Japanese Village: A Cross-Cultural Investigation of Implicit Race Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunham, Yarrow; Baron, Andrew Scott; Banaji, Mahzarin R.

2006-01-01

This study examined the development of implicit race attitudes in American and Japanese children and adults. Implicit ingroup bias was present early in both populations, and remained stable at each age tested (age 6, 10, and adult). Similarity in magnitude and developmental course across these 2 populations suggests that implicit intergroup bias…

Nesting ecology of Merriam's turkeys in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Robert A. Hodorff

1993-01-01

Merriam’s wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) were introduced to the Black Hills approximately 40 years ago, and recent population estimates show a large and stable population. Until now, few studies have evaluated nesting ecology of Merriam’s turkeys, and none occurred in predominantly pure ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa...

Addressing Postsecondary Access for Undocumented Students. ECS Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Lexi

2015-01-01

In 2012, there were an estimated 11.2 million undocumented individuals living in the United States. The peak of unauthorized immigrant population occurred in 2007 with 12.2 million, a stark rise from original estimates of 3.5 million in 1990. Although down from its peak, a sizeable and stable population of unauthorized individuals resides in the…

Stable Isotopic Insights into the Foraging Ecology of an Endangered Marine Predator, the Hawaiian Petrel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiley, A. E.; Ostrom, P. H.; James, H. F.

2010-12-01

Seabirds play vital roles in their ecosystems, both as predators in their oceanic foraging grounds and conduits of marine nutrients to island nesting sites. Despite growing evidence that food availability limits seabird populations, characterization of the diet and even foraging locations of some seabird species remains elusive. Here, we use stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopes to study the foraging ecology of an endangered and poorly known seabird, the Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis). This species nests solely on the main Hawaiian Islands but forages widely across the NE Pacific, sometimes traveling over 10,000km on single foraging trips. δ13C and δ15N values vary with trophic level and at the base of food webs throughout the marine range of the Hawaiian petrel. Thus, we are able to use isotope signatures in modern and ancient petrel tissues to track spatial and temporal variation in foraging location and diet. We find strong evidence of foraging segregation between populations, with hatch-year birds from the island of Hawaii exhibiting feather δ15N and δ13C values over 3‰ and 1 ‰ higher, respectively, than those found in Maui and Kauai hatch-year birds. There is also significant variation in δ15N values between feathers from Kauai, Hawaii, and Maui adults, indicating additional foraging segregation during the winter molt. To distinguish between the effects of trophic level and foraging location, we relate our data to those from seabirds with known diet and foraging location, as well as to previous characterizations of isoscapes in the NE Pacific and at-sea observations of our study species. Finally, we track Hawaiian petrel foraging ecology back in time through examination of stable isotope values in historical feathers and ancient bone collagen. We find that, despite a species-wide decline in δ15N values (consistent with trophic level decline), populations have maintained divergent isotopic niches through at least the past 1,000 years. These data offer rare insight into the long-term fluxuations of seabird foraging habits as well as important information for the conservation of Hawaiian petrels and ultimately, the ecosystems they inhabit.

Inner-city asthma: the role of the community.

PubMed

Persky, Victoria; Turyk, Mary; Piorkowski, Julie; Coover, Lenore; Knight, John; Wagner, Cynthia; Hernandez, Eva; Eldeirawi, Kamal; Fitzpatrick, Anne

2007-11-01

Asthma morbidity and mortality are disproportionately high in low-income minority populations. Variations in environmental exposures, stress, and access to appropriate health care all contribute to these disparities. The complex nature of asthma with strong contributions from environmental, psychosocial, and biological factors suggest that community-based approaches focused on the unique needs of high-risk populations may be effective. The few previous randomized trials suggest that case management with professionals and/or community health educators may reduce asthma morbidity. Health-educator programs should be lodged in stable infrastructures with training and funding for community health workers to obtain long-term sustainability. Factors not amenable to individual intervention, however, such as poor condition of homes, outdoor pollution, and lack of access to appropriate care, will require collaborative efforts of community groups, academic professionals, public agencies, and health-care providers.

KCTF evolution of trans-neptunian binaries: Connecting formation to observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, Simon B.; Grundy, William M.

2012-08-01

Recent observational surveys of trans-neptunian binary (TNB) systems have dramatically increased the number of known mutual orbits. Our Kozai Cycle Tidal Friction (KCTF) simulations of synthetic trans-neptunian binaries show that tidal dissipation in these systems can completely reshape their original orbits. Specifically, solar torques should have dramatically accelerated the semimajor axis decay and circularization timescales of primordial (or recently excited) TNBs. As a result, our initially random distribution of TNBs in our simulations evolved to have a large population of tight circular orbits. This tight circular population appears for a range of TNO physical properties, though a strong gravitational quadrupole can prevent some from fully circularizing. We introduce a stability parameter to predict the effectiveness of KCTF on a TNB orbit, and show that a number of known TNBs must have a large gravitational quadrupole to be stable.

Bechstein's bats maintain individual social links despite a complete reorganisation of their colony structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baigger, A.; Perony, N.; Reuter, M.; Leinert, V.; Melber, M.; Grünberger, S.; Fleischmann, D.; Kerth, G.

2013-09-01

Several social mammals, including elephants and some primates, whales and bats, live in multilevel societies that form temporary subgroups. Despite these fission-fusion dynamics, group members often maintain long-term bonds. However, it is unclear whether such individual links and the resulting stable social subunits continue to exist after a complete reorganisation of a society, e.g. following a population crash. Here, we employed a weighted network analysis on 7,109 individual roosting records collected over 4 years in a wild Bechstein's bat colony. We show that, in response to a strong population decline, the colony's two stable social subunits fused into a non-modular social network. Nevertheless, in the first year after the crash, long-term bonds were still detectable, suggesting that the bats remembered previous individual relationships. Our findings are important for understanding the flexibility of animal societies in the face of dramatic changes and for the conservation of social mammals with declining populations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clausen, Drew; Wade, Richard A.; Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar

Binaries that contain a hot subdwarf (sdB) star and a main-sequence companion may have interacted in the past. This binary population has historically helped determine our understanding of binary stellar evolution. We have computed a grid of binary population synthesis models using different assumptions about the minimum core mass for helium ignition, the envelope binding energy, the common-envelope ejection efficiency, the amount of mass and angular momentum lost during stable mass transfer, and the criteria for stable mass transfer on the red giant branch and in the Hertzsprung gap. These parameters separately and together can significantly change the entire predictedmore » population of sdBs. Nonetheless, several different parameter sets can reproduce the observed subpopulation of sdB + white dwarf and sdB + M dwarf binaries, which has been used to constrain these parameters in previous studies. The period distribution of sdB + early F dwarf binaries offers a better test of different mass transfer scenarios for stars that fill their Roche lobes on the red giant branch.« less

Tracing anthropogenic inputs to production in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan--a stable isotope approach.

PubMed

Miller, Todd W; Omori, Koji; Hamaoka, Hideki; Shibata, Jun-ya; Hidejiro, Onishi

2010-10-01

The Seto Inland Sea (SIS) receives waste runoff from ∼24% of Japan's total population, yet it is also important in regional fisheries, recreation and commerce. During August 2006 we measured carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes of particulate organic matter (POM) and zooplankton across urban population gradients of the SIS. Results showed a consistent trend of increasing δ(15)N in POM and zooplankton from the western to eastern subsystems of the SIS, corresponding to increasing population load. Principal components analysis of environmental variables indicated high positive loadings of δ(15)N and δ(13)C with high chlorophyll-a and surface water temperatures, and negative loadings of low salinities related to inputs from large rivers and high urban development in the eastern SIS. Anthropogenic nitrogen was therefore readily integrated into the SIS food web from primary production to copepods, which are a critical food source for many commercially important fishes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying male attractiveness.

PubMed Central

McNamara, John M; Houston, Alasdair I; Marques Dos Santos, Miguel; Kokko, Hanna; Brooks, Rob

2003-01-01

Genetic models of sexual selection are concerned with a dynamic process in which female preference and male trait values coevolve. We present a rigorous method for characterizing evolutionary endpoints of this process in phenotypic terms. In our phenotypic characterization the mate-choice strategy of female population members determines how attractive females should find each male, and a population is evolutionarily stable if population members are actually behaving in this way. This provides a justification of phenotypic explanations of sexual selection and the insights into sexual selection that they provide. Furthermore, the phenotypic approach also has enormous advantages over a genetic approach when computing evolutionarily stable mate-choice strategies, especially when strategies are allowed to be complex time-dependent preference rules. For simplicity and clarity our analysis deals with haploid mate-choice genetics and a male trait that is inherited phenotypically, for example by vertical cultural transmission. The method is, however, easily extendible to other cases. An example illustrates that the sexy son phenomenon can occur when there is phenotypic inheritance of the male trait. PMID:14561306

Bechstein's bats maintain individual social links despite a complete reorganisation of their colony structure.

PubMed

Baigger, A; Perony, N; Reuter, M; Leinert, V; Melber, M; Grünberger, S; Fleischmann, D; Kerth, G

2013-09-01

Several social mammals, including elephants and some primates, whales and bats, live in multilevel societies that form temporary subgroups. Despite these fission-fusion dynamics, group members often maintain long-term bonds. However, it is unclear whether such individual links and the resulting stable social subunits continue to exist after a complete reorganisation of a society, e.g. following a population crash. Here, we employed a weighted network analysis on 7,109 individual roosting records collected over 4 years in a wild Bechstein's bat colony. We show that, in response to a strong population decline, the colony's two stable social subunits fused into a non-modular social network. Nevertheless, in the first year after the crash, long-term bonds were still detectable, suggesting that the bats remembered previous individual relationships. Our findings are important for understanding the flexibility of animal societies in the face of dramatic changes and for the conservation of social mammals with declining populations.

Combined action of time-delay and colored cross-associated multiplicative and additive noises on stability and stochastic resonance for a stochastic metapopulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kang-Kang; Zong, De-Cai; Wang, Ya-Jun; Li, Sheng-Hong

2016-05-01

In this paper, the transition between the stable state of a big density and the extinction state and stochastic resonance (SR) for a time-delayed metapopulation system disturbed by colored cross-correlated noises are investigated. By applying the fast descent method, the small time-delay approximation and McNamara and Wiesenfeld's SR theory, we investigate the impacts of time-delay, the multiplicative, additive noises and colored cross-correlated noise on the SNR and the shift between the two states of the system. Numerical results show that the multiplicative, additive noises and time-delay can all speed up the transition from the stable state to the extinction state, while the correlation noise and its correlation time can slow down the extinction process of the population system. With respect to SNR, the multiplicative noise always weakens the SR effect, while noise correlation time plays a dual role in motivating the SR phenomenon. Meanwhile, time-delay mainly plays a negative role in stimulating the SR phenomenon. Conversely, it could motivate the SR effect to increase the strength of the cross-correlation noise in the SNR-β plot, while the increase of additive noise intensity will firstly excite SR, and then suppress the SR effect.

Feather isotope analysis reveals differential patterns of habitat and resource use in populations of white-winged doves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carleton, Scott A.; Martinez Del Rio, Carlos; Robinson, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

The white-winged dove (Zenaida asiatica) serves an important ecological role as a diurnal pollinator of the saguaro cactus in the Sonoran desert and an economic role as a highly sought after game bird in North America. White-winged doves are intimately linked to anthropogenic changes on the landscape and because of this, have experienced dramatic population fluctuations over the last 75 years in response, both positively and negatively, to anthropogenic changes on the landscape. To understand the factors driving population growth and decline of migratory species like the white-winged dove, it is imperative we study resource use on both their breeding and wintering grounds. To understand how populations are distributed on the wintering grounds, we tested an alternative to band recovery approaches by using stable isotope analysis. Before we could use isotope analysis to link breeding and wintering locations for this species, we first needed to determine if hydrogen (δ2H) and carbon (δ13C) stable isotopes in feather tissue (δ2Hf and δ13Cf, respectively) could differentiate among populations of white-winged doves across their breeding range in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. δ2Hf and δ13Cf not only differentiated between populations of white-winged doves that breed in the United States, but δ2Hf also provided further differentiation in white-winged doves that breed in native Sonoran Desert and agricultural habitats in the western portion of their range. Ecological processes associated with desert resources and anthropogenic influences, specifically saguaro cacti and irrigated crops, largely determined δ2Hf in some white-winged doves in Arizona whereas δ2H of precipitation (δ2Hp) largely determined δ2Hfof doves in New Mexico and Texas. This study highlights the usefulness of stable isotope analysis to differentiate populations of animals across the landscape and the insight isotopes can provide into habitat and resource use. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Year-round shotgun metagenomes reveal stable microbial communities in agricultural soils and novel ammonia oxidizers responding to fertilization.

PubMed

Orellana, Luis H; Chee-Sanford, Joanne C; Sanford, Robert A; Löffler, Frank E; Konstantinidis, Konstantinos T

2017-11-03

The dynamics of individual microbial populations and their gene functions in agricultural soils, especially after major activities such as nitrogen (N) fertilization, remain elusive but are important for better understanding nutrient cycling. Here, we analyzed 20 short-read metagenomes collected at four time points across one year from two depths (0-5 and 20-30 cm) in two Midwestern agricultural sites representing contrasting soil textures (sandy versus silty-loam), with similar cropping histories. Although microbial community taxonomic and functional compositions differed between the two locations and depths, they were more stable within a depth/site throughout the year than communities in natural water-based ecosystems. For example, among the 69 population genomes assembled from the metagenomes, 75% showed less than 2-fold change in abundance between any two sampling points. Interestingly, six deep-branching Thaumarchaeota and three complete ammonia oxidizer (comammox) Nitrospira populations increased up to 5-fold in abundance upon the addition of N fertilizer. These results indicated that indigenous archaeal ammonia oxidizers may respond faster (more copiotrophic) to N fertilization than previously thought. None of 29 recovered putative denitrifier genomes encoded the complete denitrification pathway, suggesting that denitrification is carried out by a collection of different populations. Altogether, our study identified novel microbial populations and genes responding to seasonal and human-induced perturbations in agricultural soils that should facilitate future monitoring efforts and N-related studies. Importance Even though the impact of agricultural management on the microbial community structure has already been recognized, understanding of the dynamics of individual microbial populations and what functions each population encodes are limited. Yet, this information is important for better understanding nutrient cycling, with potentially important implications for preserving nitrogen in soils and sustainability. Here we show that reconstructed metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) are relatively stable in their abundance and functional gene content year-round, and seasonal nitrogen fertilization has selected for novel Thaumarchaeota and comammox Nitrospira nitrifiers that are potentially less oligotrophic compared to their marine counterparts previously studied. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

PubMed

Robinson, Hugh S; Wielgus, Robert B; Cooley, Hilary S; Cooley, Skye W

2008-06-01

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.

Impact of a Genetically Engineered Bacterium with Enhanced Alkaline Phosphatase Activity on Marine Phytoplankton Communities

PubMed Central

Sobecky, P. A.; Schell, M. A.; Moran, M. A.; Hodson, R. E.

1996-01-01

An indigenous marine Achromobacter sp. was isolated from coastal Georgia seawater and modified in the laboratory by introduction of a plasmid with a phoA hybrid gene that directed constitutive overproduction of alkaline phosphatase. The effects of this "indigenous" genetically engineered microorganism (GEM) on phosphorus cycling were determined in seawater microcosms following the addition of a model dissolved organic phosphorus compound, glycerol 3-phosphate, at a concentration of 1 or 10 (mu)M. Within 48 h, a 2- to 10-fold increase in the concentration of inorganic phosphate occurred in microcosms containing the GEM (added at an initial density equivalent to 8% of the total bacterial population) relative to controls containing only natural microbial populations, natural populations with the unmodified Achromobacter sp., or natural populations with the Achromobacter sp. containing the plasmid but not the phoA gene. Secondary effects of the GEM on the phytoplankton community were observed after several days, evident as sustained increases in phytoplankton biomass (up to 14-fold) over that in controls. Even in the absence of added glycerol 3-phosphate, a numerically stable GEM population (averaging 3 to 5% of culturable bacteria) was established within 2 to 3 weeks of introduction into seawater. Moreover, alkaline phosphatase activity in microcosms with the GEM was substantially higher than that in controls for up to 25 days, and microcosms containing the GEM maintained the potential for net phosphate accumulation above control levels for longer than 1 month. PMID:16535222

A simple, physiologically-based model of sea turtle remigration intervals and nesting population dynamics: Effects of temperature.

PubMed

Neeman, Noga; Spotila, James R; O'Connor, Michael P

2015-09-07

Variation in the yearly number of sea turtles nesting at rookeries can interfere with population estimates and obscure real population dynamics. Previous theoretical models suggested that this variation in nesting numbers may be driven by changes in resources at the foraging grounds. We developed a physiologically-based model that uses temperatures at foraging sites to predict foraging conditions, resource accumulation, remigration probabilities, and, ultimately, nesting numbers for a stable population of sea turtles. We used this model to explore several scenarios of temperature variation at the foraging grounds, including one-year perturbations and cyclical temperature oscillations. We found that thermally driven resource variation can indeed synchronize nesting in groups of turtles, creating cohorts, but that these cohorts tend to break down over 5-10 years unless regenerated by environmental conditions. Cohorts were broken down faster at lower temperatures. One-year perturbations of low temperature had a synchronizing effect on nesting the following year, while high temperature perturbations tended to delay nesting in a less synchronized way. Cyclical temperatures lead to cyclical responses both in nesting numbers and remigration intervals, with the amplitude and lag of the response depending on the duration of the cycle. Overall, model behavior is consistent with observations at nesting beaches. Future work should focus on refining the model to fit particular nesting populations and testing further whether or not it may be used to predict observed nesting numbers and remigration intervals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health-Related Quality of Life of the General German Population in 2015: Results from the EQ-5D-5L.

PubMed

Huber, Manuel B; Felix, Julia; Vogelmann, Martin; Leidl, Reiner

2017-04-16

The EQ-5D-5L is a widely used generic instrument to measure health-related quality of life. This study evaluates health perception in a representative sample of the general German population from 2015. To compare results over time, a component analysis technique was used that separates changes in the description and valuation of health states. The whole sample and also subgroups, stratified by sociodemographic parameters as well as disease affliction, were analyzed. In total, 2040 questionnaires (48.4% male, mean age 47.3 year) were included. The dimension with the lowest number of reported problems was self-care (93.0% without problems), and the dimension with the highest proportion of impairment was pain/discomfort (71.2% without problems). Some 64.3% of the study population were identified as problem-free. The visual analog scale (VAS) mean for all participants was 85.1. Low education was connected with significantly lower VAS scores, but the effect was small. Depression, heart disease, and diabetes had a strong significant negative effect on reported VAS means. Results were slightly better than those in a similar 2012 survey; the most important driver was the increase in the share of the study population that reported to be problem-free. In international comparisons, health perception of the general German population is relatively high and, compared with previous German studies, fairly stable over recent years. Elderly and sick people continue to report significant reductions in perceived health states.

Antagonistic interactions are sufficient to explain self-assemblage of bacterial communities in a homogeneous environment: a computational modeling approach

PubMed Central

Zapién-Campos, Román; Olmedo-Álvarez, Gabriela; Santillán, Moisés

2015-01-01

Most of the studies in Ecology have been devoted to analyzing the effects the environment has on individuals, populations, and communities, thus neglecting the effects of biotic interactions on the system dynamics. In the present work we study the structure of bacterial communities in the oligotrophic shallow water system of Churince, Cuatro Cienegas, Mexico. Since the physicochemical conditions of this water system are homogeneous and quite stable in time, it is an excellent candidate to study how biotic factors influence the structure of bacterial communities. In a previous study, the binary antagonistic interactions of 78 bacterial strains, isolated from Churince, were experimentally determined. We employ these data to develop a computer algorithm to simulate growth experiments in a cellular grid representing the pond. Remarkably, in our model, the dynamics of all the simulated bacterial populations is determined solely by antagonistic interactions. Our results indicate that all bacterial strains (even those that are antagonized by many other bacteria) survive in the long term, and that the underlying mechanism is the formation of bacterial community patches. Patches corresponding to less antagonistic and highly susceptible strains are consistently isolated from the highly-antagonistic bacterial colonies by patches of neutral strains. These results concur with the observed features of the bacterial community structure previously reported. Finally, we study how our findings depend on factors like initial population size, differential population growth rates, homogeneous population death rates, and enhanced bacterial diffusion. PMID:26052318

Intestinal Escherichia coli colonization in a mallard duck population over four consecutive winter seasons.

PubMed

Rödiger, Stefan; Kramer, Toni; Frömmel, Ulrike; Weinreich, Jörg; Roggenbuck, Dirk; Guenther, Sebastian; Schaufler, Katharina; Schröder, Christian; Schierack, Peter

2015-09-01

We report the population structure and dynamics of one Escherichia coli population of wild mallard ducks in their natural environment over four winter seasons, following the characterization of 100 isolates each consecutive season. Macro-restriction analysis was used to define isolates variously as multi- or 1-year pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) types. Isolates were characterized genotypically based on virulence-associated genes (VAGs), phylogenetic markers, and phenotypically based on haemolytic activity, antimicrobial resistance, adhesion to epithelial cells, microcin production, motility and carbohydrate metabolism. Only 12 out of 220 PFGE types were detectable over more than one winter, and classified as multi-year PFGE types. There was a dramatic change of PFGE types within two winter seasons. Nevertheless, the genetic pool (VAGs) and antimicrobial resistance pattern remained remarkably stable. The high diversity and dynamics of this E. coli population were also demonstrated by the occurrence of PFGE subtypes and differences between isolates of one PFGE type (based on VAGs, antimicrobial resistance and adhesion rates). Multi- and 1-year PFGE types differed in antimicrobial resistance, VAGs and adhesion. Other parameters were not prominent colonization factors. In conclusion, the high diversity, dynamics and stable genetic pool of an E. coli population seem to enable their successful colonization of host animal population over time. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bacterioplankton communities of Crater Lake, OR: Dynamic changes with euphotic zone food web structure and stable deep water populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urbach, E.; Vergin, K.L.; Larson, G.L.; Giovannoni, S.J.

2007-01-01

The distribution of bacterial and archaeal species in Crater Lake plankton varies dramatically over depth and with time, as assessed by hybridization of group-specific oligonucleotides to RNA extracted from lakewater. Nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis of relative bacterial phylotype densities revealed complex relationships among assemblages sampled from depth profiles in July, August and September of 1997 through 1999. CL500-11 green nonsulfur bacteria (Phylum Chloroflexi) and marine Group I crenarchaeota are consistently dominant groups in the oxygenated deep waters at 300 and 500 m. Other phylotypes found in the deep waters are similar to surface and mid-depth populations and vary with time. Euphotic zone assemblages are dominated either by ??-proteobacteria or CL120-10 verrucomicrobia, and ACK4 actinomycetes. MDS analyses of euphotic zone populations in relation to environmental variables and phytoplankton and zooplankton population structures reveal apparent links between Daphnia pulicaria zooplankton population densities and microbial community structure. These patterns may reflect food web interactions that link kokanee salmon population densities to community structure of the bacterioplankton, via fish predation on Daphnia with cascading consequences to Daphnia bacterivory and predation on bacterivorous protists. These results demonstrate a stable bottom-water microbial community. They also extend previous observations of food web-driven changes in euphotic zone bacterioplankton community structure to an oligotrophic setting. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Mercury Stable Isotopes Discriminate Different Populations of European Seabass and Trace Potential Hg Sources around Europe.

PubMed

Cransveld, Alice; Amouroux, David; Tessier, Emmanuel; Koutrakis, Emmanuil; Ozturk, Ayaka A; Bettoso, Nicola; Mieiro, Cláudia L; Bérail, Sylvain; Barre, Julien P G; Sturaro, Nicolas; Schnitzler, Joseph; Das, Krishna

2017-11-07

Our study reports the first data on mercury (Hg) isotope composition in marine European fish, for seven distinct populations of the European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax. The use of δ 202 Hg and Δ 199 Hg values in SIBER enabled us to estimate Hg isotopic niches, successfully discriminating several populations. Recursive-partitioning analyses demonstrated the relevance of Hg stable isotopes as discriminating tools. Hg isotopic values also provided insight on Hg contamination sources for biota in coastal environment. The overall narrow range of δ 202 Hg around Europe was suggested to be related to a global atmospheric contamination while δ 202 Hg at some sites was linked either to background contamination, or with local contamination sources. Δ 199 Hg was related to Hg levels of fish but we also suggest a relation with ecological conditions. Throughout this study, results from the Black Sea population stood out, displaying a Hg cycling similar to fresh water lakes. Our findings bring out the possibility to use Hg isotopes in order to discriminate distinct populations, to explore the Hg cycle on a large scale (Europe) and to distinguish sites contaminated by global versus local Hg source. The interest of using Hg sable isotopes to investigate the whole European Hg cycle is clearly highlighted.

Evolutionarily stable and convergent stable strategies in reaction-diffusion models for conditional dispersal.

PubMed

Lam, King-Yeung; Lou, Yuan

2014-02-01

We consider a mathematical model of two competing species for the evolution of conditional dispersal in a spatially varying, but temporally constant environment. Two species are different only in their dispersal strategies, which are a combination of random dispersal and biased movement upward along the resource gradient. In the absence of biased movement or advection, Hastings showed that the mutant can invade when rare if and only if it has smaller random dispersal rate than the resident. When there is a small amount of biased movement or advection, we show that there is a positive random dispersal rate that is both locally evolutionarily stable and convergent stable. Our analysis of the model suggests that a balanced combination of random and biased movement might be a better habitat selection strategy for populations.

NeuroGrid: recording action potentials from the surface of the brain.

PubMed

Khodagholy, Dion; Gelinas, Jennifer N; Thesen, Thomas; Doyle, Werner; Devinsky, Orrin; Malliaras, George G; Buzsáki, György

2015-02-01

Recording from neural networks at the resolution of action potentials is critical for understanding how information is processed in the brain. Here, we address this challenge by developing an organic material-based, ultraconformable, biocompatible and scalable neural interface array (the 'NeuroGrid') that can record both local field potentials(LFPs) and action potentials from superficial cortical neurons without penetrating the brain surface. Spikes with features of interneurons and pyramidal cells were simultaneously acquired by multiple neighboring electrodes of the NeuroGrid, allowing for the isolation of putative single neurons in rats. Spiking activity demonstrated consistent phase modulation by ongoing brain oscillations and was stable in recordings exceeding 1 week's duration. We also recorded LFP-modulated spiking activity intraoperatively in patients undergoing epilepsy surgery. The NeuroGrid constitutes an effective method for large-scale, stable recording of neuronal spikes in concert with local population synaptic activity, enhancing comprehension of neural processes across spatiotemporal scales and potentially facilitating diagnosis and therapy for brain disorders.

Vertical distribution of vibrational energy of molecular nitrogen in a stable auroral red arc and its effect on ionospheric electron densities. Ph.D. Thesis - Catholic Univ. of Am.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newton, G. P.

1973-01-01

Previous solutions of the problem of the distribution of vibrationally excited molecular nitrogen in the thermosphere have either assumed a Boltzmann distribution and considered diffusion as one of the loss processes or solved for the energy level populations and neglected diffusion. Both of the previous approaches are combined by solving the time dependent continuity equations, including the diffusion process, for the first six energy levels of molecular nitrogen for conditions in the thermosphere corresponding to a stable auroral red arc. The primary source of molecular nitrogen excitation was subexcitation, and inelastic collisions between thermal electrons and molecular nitrogen. The reaction rates for this process were calculated from published cross section calculations. The loss processes for vibrational energy were electron and atomic oxygen quenching and vibrational energy exchange. The coupled sets of nonlinear, partial differential equations were solved numerically by employing finite difference equations.

Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation

PubMed Central

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108

Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.

PubMed

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.

Selection of energy source and evolutionary stable strategies for power plants under financial intervention of government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Mahmoudi, Reza

2017-09-01

Currently, many socially responsible governments adopt economic incentives and deterrents to manage environmental impacts of electricity suppliers. Considering the Stackelberg leadership of the government, the government's role in the competition of power plants in an electricity market is investigated. A one-population evolutionary game model of power plants is developed to study how their production strategy depends on tariffs levied by the government. We establish that a unique evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) for the population exists. Numerical examples demonstrate that revenue maximization and environment protection policies of the government significantly affect the production ESS of competitive power plants. The results reveal that the government can introduce a green energy source as an ESS of the competitive power plants by imposing appropriate tariffs.

Individuality and stability in male songs of cao vit gibbons (Nomascus nasutus) with potential to monitor population dynamics.

PubMed

Feng, Jun-Juan; Cui, Liang-Wei; Ma, Chang-Yong; Fei, Han-Lan; Fan, Peng-Fei

2014-01-01

Vocal individuality and stability has been used to conduct population surveys, monitor population dynamics, and detect dispersal patterns in avian studies. To our knowledge, it has never been used in these kinds of studies among primates. The cao vit gibbon is a critically endangered species with only one small population living in a karst forest along China-Vietnam border. Due to the difficult karst terrain, an international border, long life history, and similarity in male morphology, detailed monitoring of population dynamics and dispersal patterns are not possible using traditional observation methods. In this paper, we test individuality and stability in male songs of cao vit gibbons. We then discuss the possibility of using vocal individuality for population surveys and monitoring population dynamics and dispersal patterns. Significant individuality of vocalization was detected in all 9 males, and the correct rate of individual identification yielded by discriminant function analysis using a subset of variables was satisfactory (>90%). Vocal stability over 2-6 years was also documented in 4 males. Several characters of cao vit gibbons allowed long-term population monitoring using vocal recordings in both China and Vietnam: 1) regular loud calls, 2) strong individuality and stability in male songs, 3) stable territories, and 4) long male tenure. During the course of this research, we also observed one male replacement (confirmed by vocal analysis). This time- and labor-saving method might be the most effective way to detect dispersal patterns in this transboundary population.

Dynamics of self-sustained asynchronous-irregular activity in random networks of spiking neurons with strong synapses

PubMed Central

Kriener, Birgit; Enger, Håkon; Tetzlaff, Tom; Plesser, Hans E.; Gewaltig, Marc-Oliver; Einevoll, Gaute T.

2014-01-01

Random networks of integrate-and-fire neurons with strong current-based synapses can, unlike previously believed, assume stable states of sustained asynchronous and irregular firing, even without external random background or pacemaker neurons. We analyze the mechanisms underlying the emergence, lifetime and irregularity of such self-sustained activity states. We first demonstrate how the competition between the mean and the variance of the synaptic input leads to a non-monotonic firing-rate transfer in the network. Thus, by increasing the synaptic coupling strength, the system can become bistable: In addition to the quiescent state, a second stable fixed-point at moderate firing rates can emerge by a saddle-node bifurcation. Inherently generated fluctuations of the population firing rate around this non-trivial fixed-point can trigger transitions into the quiescent state. Hence, the trade-off between the magnitude of the population-rate fluctuations and the size of the basin of attraction of the non-trivial rate fixed-point determines the onset and the lifetime of self-sustained activity states. During self-sustained activity, individual neuronal activity is moreover highly irregular, switching between long periods of low firing rate to short burst-like states. We show that this is an effect of the strong synaptic weights and the finite time constant of synaptic and neuronal integration, and can actually serve to stabilize the self-sustained state. PMID:25400575

Dynamics of self-sustained asynchronous-irregular activity in random networks of spiking neurons with strong synapses.

PubMed

Kriener, Birgit; Enger, Håkon; Tetzlaff, Tom; Plesser, Hans E; Gewaltig, Marc-Oliver; Einevoll, Gaute T

2014-01-01

Random networks of integrate-and-fire neurons with strong current-based synapses can, unlike previously believed, assume stable states of sustained asynchronous and irregular firing, even without external random background or pacemaker neurons. We analyze the mechanisms underlying the emergence, lifetime and irregularity of such self-sustained activity states. We first demonstrate how the competition between the mean and the variance of the synaptic input leads to a non-monotonic firing-rate transfer in the network. Thus, by increasing the synaptic coupling strength, the system can become bistable: In addition to the quiescent state, a second stable fixed-point at moderate firing rates can emerge by a saddle-node bifurcation. Inherently generated fluctuations of the population firing rate around this non-trivial fixed-point can trigger transitions into the quiescent state. Hence, the trade-off between the magnitude of the population-rate fluctuations and the size of the basin of attraction of the non-trivial rate fixed-point determines the onset and the lifetime of self-sustained activity states. During self-sustained activity, individual neuronal activity is moreover highly irregular, switching between long periods of low firing rate to short burst-like states. We show that this is an effect of the strong synaptic weights and the finite time constant of synaptic and neuronal integration, and can actually serve to stabilize the self-sustained state.

Genome-assisted Breeding For Drought Resistance

PubMed Central

Khan, Awais; Sovero, Valpuri; Gemenet, Dorcus

2016-01-01

Drought stress caused by unpredictable precipitation poses a major threat to food production worldwide, and its impact is only expected to increase with the further onset of climate change. Understanding the effect of drought stress on crops and plants' response is critical for developing improved varieties with stable high yield to fill a growing food gap from an increasing population depending on decreasing land and water resources. When a plant encounters drought stress, it may use multiple response types, depending on environmental conditions, drought stress intensity and duration, and the physiological stage of the plant. Drought stress responses can be divided into four broad types: drought escape, drought avoidance, drought tolerance, and drought recovery, each characterized by interacting mechanisms, which may together be referred to as drought resistance mechanisms. The complex nature of drought resistance requires a multi-pronged approach to breed new varieties with stable and enhanced yield under drought stress conditions. High throughput genomics and phenomics allow marker-assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection (GS), which offer rapid and targeted improvement of populations and identification of parents for rapid genetic gains and improved drought-resistant varieties. Using these approaches together with appropriate genetic diversity, databases, analytical tools, and well-characterized drought stress scenarios, weather and soil data, new varieties with improved drought resistance corresponding to grower preferences can be introduced into target regions rapidly. PMID:27499682

Investigating Holocene human population history in North Asia using ancient mitogenomes.

PubMed

Kılınç, Gülşah Merve; Kashuba, Natalija; Yaka, Reyhan; Sümer, Arev Pelin; Yüncü, Eren; Shergin, Dmitrij; Ivanov, Grigorij Leonidovich; Kichigin, Dmitrii; Pestereva, Kjunnej; Volkov, Denis; Mandryka, Pavel; Kharinskii, Artur; Tishkin, Alexey; Ineshin, Evgenij; Kovychev, Evgeniy; Stepanov, Aleksandr; Alekseev, Aanatolij; Fedoseeva, Svetlana Aleksandrovna; Somel, Mehmet; Jakobsson, Mattias; Krzewińska, Maja; Storå, Jan; Götherström, Anders

2018-06-12

Archaeogenomic studies have largely elucidated human population history in West Eurasia during the Stone Age. However, despite being a broad geographical region of significant cultural and linguistic diversity, little is known about the population history in North Asia. We present complete mitochondrial genome sequences together with stable isotope data for 41 serially sampled ancient individuals from North Asia, dated between c.13,790 BP and c.1,380 BP extending from the Palaeolithic to the Iron Age. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequences and haplogroup data of these individuals revealed the highest genetic affinity to present-day North Asian populations of the same geographical region suggesting a possible long-term maternal genetic continuity in the region. We observed a decrease in genetic diversity over time and a reduction of maternal effective population size (N e ) approximately seven thousand years before present. Coalescent simulations were consistent with genetic continuity between present day individuals and individuals dating to 7,000 BP, 4,800 BP or 3,000 BP. Meanwhile, genetic differences observed between 7,000 BP and 3,000 BP as well as between 4,800 BP and 3,000 BP were inconsistent with genetic drift alone, suggesting gene flow into the region from distant gene pools or structure within the population. These results indicate that despite some level of continuity between ancient groups and present-day populations, the region exhibits a complex demographic history during the Holocene.

Treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis with intra-articular triamcinolone hexacetonide: evaluation of clinical effectiveness correlated with circulating ANA and T gamma/delta + and B CD5+ lymphocyte populations of synovial fluid.

PubMed

Lepore, L; Del Santo, M; Malorgio, C; Presani, G; Perticarari, S; Prodan, M; Di Leo, G; Leone, V; Tommasini, A

2002-01-01

The aims of the study were to assess the effect of intra-articular treatment with triamcinolone hexacetonide (TH) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and to investigate whether treatment response correlates with the presence of antinuclear antibodies (ANA) in the serum and/or B CD5+ and T gamma/delta + lymphocytes in the synovial fluid. A total of 37 patients (81% females, 56% ANA+) with oligoarticular JIA involving knees were treated with intra-articular injections of TH after failing to respond to NSAIDs for two months. Eighteen patients were treated within 6 months of onset, 19 were treated more than 6 months after onset. Mean duration of remission was 13.9 months. Twelve patients (7 ANA+) had stable remission after a single injection; 13 patients (3 ANA+) experienced more than 6 months' remission but subsequently had a relapse; 12 patients (11 ANA+) had a relapse within six months of injection. Of 20 patients treated within 6 months of onset, 17 had stable remission whereas only 8 out of 17 who were treated during relapse attained stable remission (p = 0.03). The mean percentage of T gamma/delta + and of B CD5+ lymphocytes in synovial fluid was the same as in peripheral blood of normal subjects. Our data indicate that local treatment with slow-release steroids is very effective in oligoarticular JIA. Prolonged remission was less likely in the presence of ANA positivity, probably because the disease is immunologically more active. Finally, our data suggest that the earlier the treatment, the easier it is to obtain a protracted, and possibly permanent, response.

Distribution, Abundance and Population Structuring of Beaked Whales in the Great Bahama Canyon, Northern Bahamas

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

LeDuc, L.G. Barrett- Lennard, and M.M. Krahn. (2005) Feeding ecology of North Pacific killer whales Orcinus orca from fatty acid, stable isotope...Figure 1. The Great Bahama Canyon branches into Northwest Providence Channel and from Northeast Providence Channel south into Tongue of the...at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries. Nitrogen and carbon stable isotope ratios (SI) in skin and blubber fatty acids (FA) were

Travelling to the south: Phylogeographic spatial diffusion model in Monttea aphylla (Plantaginaceae), an endemic plant of the Monte Desert

PubMed Central

Cosacov, Andrea; Ferreiro, Gabriela; Johnson, Leigh A.; Sérsic, Alicia N.

2017-01-01

Effects of Pleistocene climatic oscillations on plant phylogeographic patterns are relatively well studied in forest, savanna and grassland biomes, but such impacts remain less explored on desert regions of the world, especially in South America. Here, we performed a phylogeographical study of Monttea aphylla, an endemic species of the Monte Desert, to understand the evolutionary history of vegetation communities inhabiting the South American Arid Diagonal. We obtained sequences of three chloroplast (trnS–trnfM, trnH–psbA and trnQ–rps16) and one nuclear (ITS) intergenic spacers from 272 individuals of 34 localities throughout the range of the species. Population genetic and Bayesian coalescent analyses were performed to infer genealogical relationships among haplotypes, population genetic structure, and demographic history of the study species. Timing of demographic events was inferred using Bayesian Skyline Plot and the spatio-temporal patterns of lineage diversification was reconstructed using Bayesian relaxed diffusion models. Palaeo-distribution models (PDM) were performed through three different timescales to validate phylogeographical patterns. Twenty-five and 22 haplotypes were identified in the cpDNA and nDNA data, respectively. that clustered into two main genealogical lineages following a latitudinal pattern, the northern and the southern Monte (south of 35° S). The northern Monte showed two lineages of high genetic structure, and more relative stable demography than the southern Monte that retrieved three groups with little phylogenetic structure and a strong signal of demographic expansion that would have started during the Last Interglacial period (ca. 120 Ka). The PDM and diffusion models analyses agreed in the southeast direction of the range expansion. Differential effect of climatic oscillations across the Monte phytogeographic province was observed in Monttea aphylla lineages. In northern Monte, greater genetic structure and more relative stable demography resulted from a more stable climate than in the southern Monte. Pleistocene glaciations drastically decreased the species area in the southern Monte, which expanded in a southeastern direction to the new available areas during the interglacial periods. PMID:28582433

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Problem-Solving Intervention Addressing Barriers to Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Behaviors in 3 Underserved Populations: Colorado, North Carolina, West Virginia, 2009

PubMed Central

Bryant, Lucinda L.; Leary, Janie M.; Vu, Maihan B.; Hill-Briggs, Felicia; Samuel-Hodge, Carmen D.; McMilin, Colleen R.; Keyserling, Thomas C.

2014-01-01

Introduction In low-income and underserved populations, financial hardship and multiple competing roles and responsibilities lead to difficulties in lifestyle change for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. To improve CVD prevention behaviors, we adapted, pilot-tested, and evaluated a problem-solving intervention designed to address barriers to lifestyle change. Methods The sample consisted of 81 participants from 3 underserved populations, including 28 Hispanic or non-Hispanic white women in a western community (site 1), 31 African-American women in a semirural southern community (site 2), and 22 adults in an Appalachian community (site 3). Incorporating focus group findings, we assessed a standardized intervention involving 6-to-8 week group sessions devoted to problem-solving in the fall of 2009. Results Most sessions were attended by 76.5% of participants, demonstrating participant adoption and engagement. The intervention resulted in significant improvement in problem-solving skills (P < .001) and perceived stress (P < .05). Diet, physical activity, and weight remained stable, although 72% of individuals reported maintenance or increase in daily fruit and vegetable intake, and 67% reported maintenance or increase in daily physical activity. Conclusion Study results suggest the intervention was acceptable to rural, underserved populations and effective in training them in problem-solving skills and stress management for CVD risk reduction. PMID:24602586

[Use of psychoactive substances and contraceptive methods by the Brazilian urban population, 2005].

PubMed

Bastos, Francisco I; Cunha, Cynthia B; Bertoni, Neilane

2008-06-01

To analyze the relationship between utilization patterns for condoms and other contraceptive methods and the consumption of alcohol and drugs. Exploratory study based on data from a probabilistic sample of 5,040 interviewees aged 16 to 65 years living in large urban regions of Brazil in 2005. The data were collected by means of questionnaires. The chi-square automatic interaction classification tree technique was used to study the use of condoms among interviewees of both sexes and other contraceptive methods among women, at the time of the last vaginal sexual intercourse. Among young and middle-aged adults of both sexes and young men in stable relationships, condom use was less frequent among those who said they used psychoactive substances (alcohol and/or illegal drugs). The possible modulating effect of psychoactive substances on contraceptive practices among mature women seems to be more straightforward, compared to the more subtle effects observed among younger women, for whom the different social classes they belonged to seemed to play a more important role. Despite the limitations resulting from an exploratory study, the fact that this was a representative sample of the urban population of Brazil and not from vulnerable populations, reinforces the need to implement integrated public policies directed towards the general population, with regard to preventing drug consumption, alcohol abuse, sexually transmitted infections, HIV/AIDS and unwanted pregnancy and promoting sexual and reproductive health.

Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Simmer, C.

2017-12-01

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh with a population of over 17 million people, is among the top five coastal cities most vulnerable to climate change, with over 30 % of the population living in slums. Effective disaster mitigation and adaptation requires an understanding how hazards such as flooding impact the population. The impacts of climate change on flooding and thus livelihoods in the complex delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers can not be treated isolated from other anthropogenic impacts due to e.g. the construction of dams as well as a growing population. We illustrate this by setting up a conceptual socio-hydrological causal network using the enhanced Driving force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response framework. The constructed socio-hydrological framework includes both natural and anthropogenic processes and their two-way feedbacks, allowing policy makers to know where available resources can be used effectively to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. We conclude that climate change takes place over long stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. However, transboundary water sharing issues during the dry season and other implications resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important in connection with previous findings, which suggest that the Greater Dhaka population already experience a significant increase in mortality during droughts. Climate change can thus be seen as an anthropogenic amplification of the socio-hydrological challenges already faced by Bangladesh today.

Intra-population variation in activity ranges, diel patterns, movement rates, and habitat use of American alligators in a subtropical estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Mazzotti, Frank M; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Jeffery, Brian M.

2013-01-01

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intrapopulation variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

An Assessment of the Population of Cotton-Top Tamarins (Saguinus oedipus) and Their Habitat in Colombia

PubMed Central

Savage, Anne; Thomas, Len; Kidney, Darren; Soto, Luis H.; Pearson, Mackenzie; Medina, Felix S.; Emeris, German; Guillen, Rosamira R.

2016-01-01

Numerous animals have declining populations due to habitat loss, illegal wildlife trade, and climate change. The cotton-top tamarin (Saguinus oedipus) is a Critically Endangered primate species, endemic to northwest Colombia, threatened by deforestation and illegal trade. In order to assess the current state of this species, we analyzed changes in the population of cotton-top tamarins and its habitat from 2005 to 2012. We used a tailor-made “lure strip transect” method to survey 43 accessible forest parcels that represent 30% of the species’ range. Estimated population size in the surveyed region was approximately 2,050 in 2005 and 1,900 in 2012, with a coefficient of variation of approximately 10%. The estimated population change between surveys was -7% (a decline of approximately 1.3% per year) suggesting a relatively stable population. If densities of inaccessible forest parcels are similar to those of surveyed samples, the estimated population of cotton-top tamarins in the wild in 2012 was 6,946 individuals. We also recorded little change in the amount of suitable habitat for cotton-top tamarins between sample periods: in 2005, 18% of surveyed forest was preferred habitat for cotton-top tamarins, while in 2012, 17% percent was preferred. We attribute the relatively stable population of this Critically Endangered species to increased conservation efforts of Proyecto Tití, conservation NGOs, and the Colombian government. Due to continued threats to cotton-top tamarins and their habitat such as agriculture and urban expansion, ongoing conservation efforts are needed to ensure the long-term survival of cotton-top tamarins in Colombia. PMID:28030570

[WHO programs "Acute Myocardial Infarction Register", MONICA: thirty years (1977-2006) of epidemiological studies of myocardial infarction in a high-risk population].

PubMed

Gafarov, V V; Gafarova, A V

2011-01-01

To reveal 30 year (1977-2006) trends of myocardial infarction (MI) morbidity, lethality and mortality in population of the West Siberia megapolis (Novosibirsk). WHO programs "Acute Myocardial Infarction Register (AMIR) and MONICA covered 3 districts of Novosibirsk. MI morbidity in 25-64 year old population of Novosibirsk (high-risk population) in Russia is one of the highest in the world. MI morbidity was stable for 30 years excluding in 1988, 1994 and 1998 when it rose and in 2002-2004, 2006 when it lowered. Changes in mortality and lethality resemble changes in morbidity trend excluding 1977-1978 (fall) and 2002-2005 (rise). Prehospital mortality and lethality were much higher than those in hospital. Mortality and lethality in 1988, 1994, 1998 and 2002-2005 increased due to prehospital lethality and mortality, while it decreased in 1977-1978 due to hospital one. Reduction of mortality and lethality in stable MI morbidity shows improvement of medical care for MI patients, increased lethality and mortality in MI morbidity decline reflect deterioration of such care. Changes in behavioral and somatic factors of cardiovascular risk in population of Novosibirsk for 30 years were not observed while psychosocial risk factors gain a significant importance. By indirect indications, MI morbidity, mortality and lethality mark growing social stress in the population. MI mortality is 2-3 times higher than that of alcohol and is a basic factor of mortality increase in the population of Russia. MI morbidity, mortality and lethality are markers of social stress in population.

House and stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae) seasonal abundance, larval development substrates, and natural parasitism on small equine farms in Florida

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This 1-year study was designed to determine adult fly population levels and development substrates on four small equine farms. Results showed that pest flies were present year-round, but differences existed in population levels among farms and seasons. Fly larvae were not found on two of the farms, ...

The importance of meat, particularly salmon, to body size, population productivity, and conservation of North American brown bears.

Treesearch

G.V. Hilderbrand; C.C. Schwartz; C.T. Robbins; M.E. Hanley Jacoby; S.M. Arthur; C. Servheen

1999-01-01

We hypothesized that the relative availability of meat, indicated by contribution to the diet, would be positively related to body size and population productivity of North American brown, or grizzly, bears (Ursus arctos). Dietary contributions of plant matter and meat derived from both terrestrial and marine sources were quantified by stable-...

Changes in abundance and spatial distribution of geese molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska: Interspecific competition or ecological change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Mallek, E.J.; King, R.J.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bollinger, K.S.; Derksen, D.V.

2008-01-01

Goose populations molting in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska have changed in size and distribution over the past 30 years. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are relatively stable in numbers but are shifting from large, inland lakes to salt marshes. Concurrently, populations of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) have increased seven fold. Populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis and/or B. hutchinsii) are stable with little indication of distributional shifts. The lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) population is proportionally small, but increasing rapidly. Coastline erosion of the Beaufort Sea has altered tundra habitats by allowing saltwater intrusion, which has resulted in shifts in composition of forage plant species. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the observed shift in black brant distribution. Ecological change may have altered optimal foraging habitats for molting birds, or alternatively, interspecific competition between black brant and greater white-fronted geese may be excluding black brant from preferred habitats. Regardless of the causative mechanism, the observed shifts in species distributions are an important consideration for future resource planning. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Wikan, Arild

2012-06-01

Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities.

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

PubMed

Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R

2018-01-01

Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by timber harvesting, suggesting ecologically sustainable harvesting may be compatible with climate refugia.

Chlorinated hydrocarbon contamination in osprey eggs and nestlings from the Canadian Great Lakes basin, 1991-1995.

PubMed

Martin, Pamela A; De Solla, Shane R; Ewins, Peter

2003-01-01

Populations of osprey (Pandion haliaetus) in the Great Lakes basin declined dramatically during the 1950s-1970s due largely to adverse effects of persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons, ingested in their fish prey, on eggshell thickness and adult survival. Nevertheless, these contaminants were not measured in osprey tissues during the decades of decline on the Canadian Great Lakes. Between 1991 and 1995, we monitored recovering osprey populations on the Great Lakes, including Georgian Bay and the St. Marys River area on Lake Huron and the St. Lawrence Islands National Park, as well as at two inland sites within the basin. Current OC levels, even from the most contaminated lakes, were typically lower than those associated with reproductive effects. DDE levels in fresh eggs averaged 1.2-2.9 microg/g, well below the 4.2 microg/g level associated with significant eggshell thinning and shell breakage. Nevertheless, a proportion of eggs from all study areas did exceed this level. PCB levels in eggs seldom exceeded 5 microg/g except in one lake of high breeding density in the Kawartha Lakes inland study area, where the mean sum PCB level was 7.1 microg/g and the maximum concentration measured was 26.5 microg/g. On average, mean reproductive output (0.78-2.75 young per occupied nest) of breeding populations in Great Lakes basin study areas exceeded the threshold of 0.8 young thought necessary to maintain stable populations. We concluded that, although eggs and especially nestling plasma, are useful in reflecting local contaminant levels, ospreys are relatively insensitive, at least at the population level, to health effects of current levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons on the Canadian Great Lakes.

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Barker, Brittany S.; Rodríguez-Robles, Javier A.; Cook, Joseph A.

2014-01-01

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the Mountain Coquí, Eleutherodactylus portoricensis, is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the Red-eyed Coquí, E. antillensis, is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St. Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis, but not in E. antillensis, supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis, these patterns include: individuals isolated by long-term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis, these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long-term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long-term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence-based management decisions for E. portoricensis, a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms. PMID:26508809

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Barker, Brittany S; Rodríguez-Robles, Javier A; Cook, Joseph A

2015-08-01

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the Mountain Coquí, Eleutherodactylus portoricensis , is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the Red-eyed Coquí, E. antillensis , is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St. Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis , but not in E. antillensis , supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis , these patterns include: individuals isolated by long-term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis , these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long-term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long-term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence-based management decisions for E. portoricensis , a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms.