From stage to age in variable environments: life expectancy and survivorship.

PubMed

Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C

2006-06-01

Stage-based demographic data are now available on many species of plants and some animals, and they often display temporal and spatial variability. We provide exact formulas to compute age-specific life expectancy and survivorship from stage-based data for three models of temporal variability: cycles, serially independent random variation, and a Markov chain. These models provide a comprehensive description of patterns of temporal variation. Our formulas describe the effects of cohort (birth) environmental condition on mortality at all ages, and of the effects on survivorship of environmental variability experienced over the course of life. This paper complements existing methods for time-invariant stage-based data, and adds to the information on population growth and dynamics available from stochastic demography.

Simulating anchovy's full life cycle in the northern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean): A coupled hydro-biogeochemical-IBM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Politikos, D.; Somarakis, S.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Giannoulaki, M.; Petihakis, G.; Machias, A.; Triantafyllou, G.

2015-11-01

A 3-D full life cycle population model for the North Aegean Sea (NAS) anchovy stock is presented. The model is two-way coupled with a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (POM-ERSEM). The anchovy life span is divided into seven life stages/age classes. Embryos and early larvae are passive particles, but subsequent stages exhibit active horizontal movements based on specific rules. A bioenergetics model simulates the growth in both the larval and juvenile/adult stages, while the microzooplankton and mesozooplankton fields of the biogeochemical model provide the food for fish consumption. The super-individual approach is adopted for the representation of the anchovy population. A dynamic egg production module, with an energy allocation algorithm, is embedded in the bioenergetics equation and produces eggs based on a new conceptual model for anchovy vitellogenesis. A model simulation for the period 2003-2006 with realistic initial conditions reproduced well the magnitude of population biomass and daily egg production estimated from acoustic and daily egg production method (DEPM) surveys, carried out in the NAS during June 2003-2006. Model simulated adult and egg habitats were also in good agreement with observed spatial distributions of acoustic biomass and egg abundance in June. Sensitivity simulations were performed to investigate the effect of different formulations adopted for key processes, such as reproduction and movement. The effect of the anchovy population on plankton dynamics was also investigated, by comparing simulations adopting a two-way or a one-way coupling of the fish with the biogeochemical model.

Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, Arne; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semiarid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations that lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic-stage and adult-stage components. Through a dependence of aquatic-stage mosquito development and adult emergence on pool persistence, we model small-scale hydrology as a dominant control of mosquito abundance. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. A 16% increase in rainfall between the two years was accompanied by a 132% increase in mosquito abundance between 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual timescales and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments of the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

2016-02-01

In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

From Experiment to Theory: What Can We Learn from Growth Curves?

PubMed

Kareva, Irina; Karev, Georgy

2018-01-01

Finding an appropriate functional form to describe population growth based on key properties of a described system allows making justified predictions about future population development. This information can be of vital importance in all areas of research, ranging from cell growth to global demography. Here, we use this connection between theory and observation to pose the following question: what can we infer about intrinsic properties of a population (i.e., degree of heterogeneity, or dependence on external resources) based on which growth function best fits its growth dynamics? We investigate several nonstandard classes of multi-phase growth curves that capture different stages of population growth; these models include hyperbolic-exponential, exponential-linear, exponential-linear-saturation growth patterns. The constructed models account explicitly for the process of natural selection within inhomogeneous populations. Based on the underlying hypotheses for each of the models, we identify whether the population that it best fits by a particular curve is more likely to be homogeneous or heterogeneous, grow in a density-dependent or frequency-dependent manner, and whether it depends on external resources during any or all stages of its development. We apply these predictions to cancer cell growth and demographic data obtained from the literature. Our theory, if confirmed, can provide an additional biomarker and a predictive tool to complement experimental research.

Reasons for quitting: intrinsic and extrinsic motivation for smoking cessation in a population-based sample of smokers.

PubMed

Curry, S J; Grothaus, L; McBride, C

1997-01-01

An intrinsic-extrinsic model of motivation for smoking cessation is extended to a population-based sample of smokers (N = 1,137), using a previously validated Reasons for Quitting (RFQ) scale. Psychometric evaluation of the RFQ replicated the model that includes health concerns and self-control as intrinsic motivation dimensions and immediate reinforcement and social influence as extrinsic motivation dimensions. Compared to volunteers, the population-based sample of smokers reported equivalent health concerns, lower self-control, and higher social influence motivation for cessation. Within the population-based sample, women compared to men were less motivated to quit by health concerns and more motivated by immediate reinforcement; smokers above age 55 expressed lower health concerns and higher self-control motivation than smokers below age 55. Higher baseline levels of intrinsic relative to extrinsic motivation were associated with more advanced stages of readiness to quit smoking and successful smoking cessation at a 12-month follow-up. Among continuing smokers, improvement in stage of readiness to quit over time was associated with significant increases in health concerns and self-control motivation.

The Hydrology of Malaria: Model Development and Application to a Sahelian Village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Duchemin, J.; Eltahir, E. A.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semi-arid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations which lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely-sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic stage and adult stage components. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual time scales, and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments to the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Evolution in Stage-Structured Populations

PubMed Central

Barfield, Michael; Holt, Robert D.; Gomulkiewicz, Richard

2016-01-01

For many organisms, stage is a better predictor of demographic rates than age. Yet no general theoretical framework exists for understanding or predicting evolution in stage-structured populations. Here, we provide a general modeling approach that can be used to predict evolution and demography of stage-structured populations. This advances our ability to understand evolution in stage-structured populations to a level previously available only for populations structured by age. We use this framework to provide the first rigorous proof that Lande’s theorem, which relates adaptive evolution to population growth, applies to stage-classified populations, assuming only normality and that evolution is slow relative to population dynamics. We extend this theorem to allow for different means or variances among stages. Our next major result is the formulation of Price’s theorem, a fundamental law of evolution, for stage-structured populations. In addition, we use data from Trillium grandiflorum to demonstrate how our models can be applied to a real-world population and thereby show their practical potential to generate accurate projections of evolutionary and population dynamics. Finally, we use our framework to compare rates of evolution in age- versus stage-structured populations, which shows how our methods can yield biological insights about evolution in stage-structured populations. PMID:21460563

Cannibalism in discrete-time predator-prey systems.

PubMed

Chow, Yunshyong; Jang, Sophia R-J

2012-01-01

In this study, we propose and investigate a two-stage population model with cannibalism. It is shown that cannibalism can destabilize and lower the magnitude of the interior steady state. However, it is proved that cannibalism has no effect on the persistence of the population. Based on this model, we study two systems of predator-prey interactions where the prey population is cannibalistic. A sufficient condition based on the nontrivial boundary steady state for which both populations can coexist is derived. It is found via numerical simulations that introduction of the predator population may either stabilize or destabilize the prey dynamics, depending on cannibalism coefficients and other vital parameters.

Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

2018-05-01

Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Hongfei; Degaetano, Arthur T.; Harrington, Laura C.

2011-05-01

Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.

Computational Model of Population Dynamics Based on the Cell Cycle and Local Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oprisan, Sorinel Adrian; Oprisan, Ana

2005-03-01

Our study bridges cellular (mesoscopic) level interactions and global population (macroscopic) dynamics of carcinoma. The morphological differences and transitions between well and smooth defined benign tumors and tentacular malignat tumors suggest a theoretical analysis of tumor invasion based on the development of mathematical models exhibiting bifurcations of spatial patterns in the density of tumor cells. Our computational model views the most representative and clinically relevant features of oncogenesis as a fight between two distinct sub-systems: the immune system of the host and the neoplastic system. We implemented the neoplastic sub-system using a three-stage cell cycle: active, dormant, and necrosis. The second considered sub-system consists of cytotoxic active (effector) cells — EC, with a very broad phenotype ranging from NK cells to CTL cells, macrophages, etc. Based on extensive numerical simulations, we correlated the fractal dimensions for carcinoma, which could be obtained from tumor imaging, with the malignat stage. Our computational model was able to also simulate the effects of surgical, chemotherapeutical, and radiotherapeutical treatments.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Two-stage Bayesian model to evaluate the effect of air pollution on chronic respiratory diseases using drug prescriptions.

PubMed

Blangiardo, Marta; Finazzi, Francesco; Cameletti, Michela

2016-08-01

Exposure to high levels of air pollutant concentration is known to be associated with respiratory problems which can translate into higher morbidity and mortality rates. The link between air pollution and population health has mainly been assessed considering air quality and hospitalisation or mortality data. However, this approach limits the analysis to individuals characterised by severe conditions. In this paper we evaluate the link between air pollution and respiratory diseases using general practice drug prescriptions for chronic respiratory diseases, which allow to draw conclusions based on the general population. We propose a two-stage statistical approach: in the first stage we specify a space-time model to estimate the monthly NO2 concentration integrating several data sources characterised by different spatio-temporal resolution; in the second stage we link the concentration to the β2-agonists prescribed monthly by general practices in England and we model the prescription rates through a small area approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A two-stage model of fracture of rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuksenko, V.; Tomilin, N.; Damaskinskaya, E.; Lockner, D.

1996-01-01

In this paper we propose a two-stage model of rock fracture. In the first stage, cracks or local regions of failure are uncorrelated occur randomly throughout the rock in response to loading of pre-existing flaws. As damage accumulates in the rock, there is a gradual increase in the probability that large clusters of closely spaced cracks or local failure sites will develop. Based on statistical arguments, a critical density of damage will occur where clusters of flaws become large enough to lead to larger-scale failure of the rock (stage two). While crack interaction and cooperative failure is expected to occur within clusters of closely spaced cracks, the initial development of clusters is predicted based on the random variation in pre-existing Saw populations. Thus the onset of the unstable second stage in the model can be computed from the generation of random, uncorrelated damage. The proposed model incorporates notions of the kinetic (and therefore time-dependent) nature of the strength of solids as well as the discrete hierarchic structure of rocks and the flaw populations that lead to damage accumulation. The advantage offered by this model is that its salient features are valid for fracture processes occurring over a wide range of scales including earthquake processes. A notion of the rank of fracture (fracture size) is introduced, and criteria are presented for both fracture nucleation and the transition of the failure process from one scale to another.

Cost-effectiveness simulation and analysis of colorectal cancer screening in Hong Kong Chinese population: comparison amongst colonoscopy, guaiac and immunologic fecal occult blood testing.

PubMed

Wong, Carlos K H; Lam, Cindy L K; Wan, Y F; Fong, Daniel Y T

2015-10-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening strategies from the healthcare service provider perspective based on Chinese population. A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of recommended screening strategies including annual/biennial guaiac fecal occult blood testing (G-FOBT), annual/biennial immunologic FOBT (I-FOBT), and colonoscopy every 10 years in Chinese aged 50 year over a 25-year period. External validity of model was tested against data retrieved from published randomized controlled trials of G-FOBT. Recourse use data collected from Chinese subjects among staging of colorectal neoplasm were combined with published unit cost data ($USD in 2009 price values) to estimate a stage-specific cost per patient. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were quantified based on the stage duration and SF-6D preference-based value of each stage. The cost-effectiveness outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) represented by costs per life-years (LY) and costs per QALYs gained. In base-case scenario, the non-dominated strategies were annual and biennial I-FOBT. Compared with no screening, the ICER presented $20,542/LYs and $3155/QALYs gained for annual I-FOBT, and $19,838/LYs gained and $2976/QALYs gained for biennial I-FOBT. The optimal screening strategy was annual I-FOBT that attained the highest ICER at the threshold of $50,000 per LYs or QALYs gained. The Markov model informed the health policymakers that I-FOBT every year may be the most effective and cost-effective CRC screening strategy among recommended screening strategies, depending on the willingness-to-pay of mass screening for Chinese population. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02038283.

Parameter Stability of the Functional–Structural Plant Model GREENLAB as Affected by Variation within Populations, among Seasons and among Growth Stages

PubMed Central

Ma, Yuntao; Li, Baoguo; Zhan, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Luquet, Delphine; de Reffye, Philippe; Dingkuhn, Michael

2007-01-01

Background and Aims It is increasingly accepted that crop models, if they are to simulate genotype-specific behaviour accurately, should simulate the morphogenetic process generating plant architecture. A functional–structural plant model, GREENLAB, was previously presented and validated for maize. The model is based on a recursive mathematical process, with parameters whose values cannot be measured directly and need to be optimized statistically. This study aims at evaluating the stability of GREENLAB parameters in response to three types of phenotype variability: (1) among individuals from a common population; (2) among populations subjected to different environments (seasons); and (3) among different development stages of the same plants. Methods Five field experiments were conducted in the course of 4 years on irrigated fields near Beijing, China. Detailed observations were conducted throughout the seasons on the dimensions and fresh biomass of all above-ground plant organs for each metamer. Growth stage-specific target files were assembled from the data for GREENLAB parameter optimization. Optimization was conducted for specific developmental stages or the entire growth cycle, for individual plants (replicates), and for different seasons. Parameter stability was evaluated by comparing their CV with that of phenotype observation for the different sources of variability. A reduced data set was developed for easier model parameterization using one season, and validated for the four other seasons. Key Results and Conclusions The analysis of parameter stability among plants sharing the same environment and among populations grown in different environments indicated that the model explains some of the inter-seasonal variability of phenotype (parameters varied less than the phenotype itself), but not inter-plant variability (parameter and phenotype variability were similar). Parameter variability among developmental stages was small, indicating that parameter values were largely development-stage independent. The authors suggest that the high level of parameter stability observed in GREENLAB can be used to conduct comparisons among genotypes and, ultimately, genetic analyses. PMID:17158141

Coupling Developmental Physiology, Photoperiod, and Temperature to Model Phenology and Dynamics of an Invasive Heteropteran, Halyomorpha halys

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Anne L.; Chen, Shi; Fleischer, Shelby J.

2016-01-01

We developed an agent-based stochastic model expressing stage-specific phenology and population dynamics for an insect species across geographic regions. We used the invasive pentatomid, Halyomorpha halys, as the model organism because gaps in knowledge exist regarding its developmental physiology, it is expanding its global distribution, and it is of significant economic importance. Model predictions were compared against field observations over 3 years, and the parameter set that enables the largest population growth was applied to eight locations over 10 years, capturing the variation in temperature and photoperiod profiles of significant horticultural crop production that could be affected by H. halys in the US. As a species that overwinters as adults, critical photoperiod significantly impacted H. halys seasonality and population size through its influence on diapause termination and induction, and this may impact other insects with similar life-histories. Photoperiod and temperature interactions influenced life stage synchrony among years, resulting in an order of magnitude difference, for occurrence of key life stages. At all locations, there was a high degree of overlap among life stages and generation. Although all populations produced F2 adults and thus could be characterized as bivoltine, the size and relative contribution of each generation to the total, or overwintering, adult population also varied dramatically. In about half of the years in two locations (Geneva, NY and Salem, OR), F1 adults comprised half or more of the adult population at the end of the year. Yearly degree-day accumulation was a significant covariate influencing variation in population growth, and average maximum adult population size varied by 10-fold among locations. Average final population growth was positive (Asheville, NC, Homestead, FL, Davis, CA) or marginal (Geneva, NY, Bridgeton, NJ, Salem, OR, Riverside, CA), but was negative in one location (Wenatchee WA) due to cooler temperatures coupled with timing of vitellogenesis of F2 adults. Years of the highest population growth in the mid-Atlantic site coincided with years of highest crop damage reports. We discuss these results with respect to assumptions and critical knowledge gaps, the ability to realistically model phenology of species with strongly overlapping life stage and which diapause as adults. PMID:27242539

The impact of individual-level heterogeneity on estimated infectious disease burden: a simulation study.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Wallinga, Jacco

2016-12-08

Disease burden is not evenly distributed within a population; this uneven distribution can be due to individual heterogeneity in progression rates between disease stages. Composite measures of disease burden that are based on disease progression models, such as the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), are widely used to quantify the current and future burden of infectious diseases. Our goal was to investigate to what extent ignoring the presence of heterogeneity could bias DALY computation. Simulations using individual-based models for hypothetical infectious diseases with short and long natural histories were run assuming either "population-averaged" progression probabilities between disease stages, or progression probabilities that were influenced by an a priori defined individual-level frailty (i.e., heterogeneity in disease risk) distribution, and DALYs were calculated. Under the assumption of heterogeneity in transition rates and increasing frailty with age, the short natural history disease model predicted 14% fewer DALYs compared with the homogenous population assumption. Simulations of a long natural history disease indicated that assuming homogeneity in transition rates when heterogeneity was present could overestimate total DALYs, in the present case by 4% (95% quantile interval: 1-8%). The consequences of ignoring population heterogeneity should be considered when defining transition parameters for natural history models and when interpreting the resulting disease burden estimates.

Size matters: insights from an allometric approach to evaluate control methods for invasive Australian Rhinella marina.

PubMed

Beaty, Lynne E; Salice, Christopher J

2013-10-01

Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15-25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in approximately 80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

The proportion cured of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV cutaneous malignant melanoma in Sweden 1990-2007: A population-based study.

PubMed

Eriksson, Hanna; Lyth, Johan; Andersson, Therese M-L

2016-06-15

The survival in cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is highly dependent on the stage of the disease. Stage III-IV CMM patients are at high risk of relapse with a heterogeneous outcome, but not all experience excess mortality due to their disease. This group is referred to as the cure proportion representing the proportion of patients who experience the same mortality rate as the general population. The aim of this study was to estimate the cure proportion of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV CMM in Sweden. From the population-based Swedish Melanoma Register, we included 856 patients diagnosed with primary Stage III-IV CMM, 1990-2007, followed-up through 2013. We used flexible parametric cure models to estimate cure proportions and median survival times (MSTs) of uncured by sex, age, tumor site, ulceration status (in Stage III patients) and disease stage. The standardized (over sex, age and site) cure proportion was lower in Stage IV CMMs (0.15, 95% CI 0.09-0.22) than non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.55) with a statistically significant difference of 0.33 (95% CI = 0.24-0.41). Ulcerated Stage III CMMs had a cure proportion of 0.27 (95% CI 0.21-0.32) with a statistically significant difference compared to non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (difference 0.21; 95% CI = 0.13-0.30). The standardized MST of uncured was approximately 9-10 months longer for non-ulcerated versus ulcerated Stage III CMMs. We could demonstrate a significantly better outcome in patients diagnosed with non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs compared to ulcerated Stage III CMMs and Stage IV disease after adjusting for age, sex and tumor site. © 2016 UICC.

Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Wikan, Arild

2012-06-01

Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

PubMed

Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

2017-02-07

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyman, James M; Restrepo, Juan M; Rael, Rosalyn C

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type ofmore » voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.« less

The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

2015-07-01

Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Increased relatedness among the neighboring plants from seedling to adult stages in carnaúba wax palm.

PubMed

Vieira, F A; Sousa, R F; Fajardo, C G; Brandão, M M

2016-12-19

The objective of this study was to assess the spatial genetic structure (SGS) at different life stages (cohorts) in a remnant population (N = 101) of Copernicia prunifera in the semiarid region of northeastern Brazil. Using seven inter-simple sequence repeat molecular markers, we were able to analyze 93 loci with 100% polymorphism. Seedlings had the highest level of genetic diversity (H E = 0.411, H O = 0.599), followed by juveniles (H E = 0.394, H O = 0.579) and adults (H E = 0.267, H O = 0.427). Based on analysis of molecular variance, the majority of genetic variations were observed to occur within the life stages (93.42%) rather than between the life stages (6.58%). We found a recent reduction in the population size (bottleneck) based on the number of loci with heterozygosity excess for the two models used (infinite allele = 92 and stepwise = 91). All the life stages showed significant SGS, with positive and significant kinship values. Sp values were 0.040 for seedlings, 0.093 for juveniles, 0.156 for adults, and 0.053 for the total population. We found an increase in SGS from the seedling to adult stages, indicating that the plants were from related adult progenitors. Data from this study can be used in designing effective management and conservation strategies for the species.

Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

2016-05-01

Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Cure by age and stage at diagnosis for colorectal cancer patients in North West England, 1997-2004: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shack, L G; Shah, A; Lambert, P C; Rachet, B

2012-12-01

Stage and age at diagnosis are important prognostic factors for patients with colorectal cancer. However, the proportion cured by stage and age is unknown in England. This population-based study includes 29,563 adult patients who were diagnosed and registered with colorectal cancer during 1997-2004 and followed till 2007 in North West England. Multiple imputation was used to provide more reliable estimates of stage at diagnosis, when these data were missing. Cure mixture models were used to estimate the proportion 'cured' and the median survival of the uncured by age and stage. For both colon and rectal cancer the proportion of patients cured and median survival time of the uncured decreased with advancing stage and increasing age. Patients aged under 65 years had the highest proportion cured and longest median survival of the uncured. Cure of colorectal cancer patients is dependent on stage and age at diagnosis with younger patients or those with less advanced disease having a better prognosis. Further efforts are required, in order to reduce the proportion of patients presenting with stage III and IV disease and ultimately increase the chance of cure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of geographic unit of analysis on socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival and distant summary stage - a population-based study.

PubMed

Tervonen, Hanna E; Morrell, Stephen; Aranda, Sanchia; Roder, David; You, Hui; Niyonsenga, Theo; Walton, Richard; Baker, Deborah; Currow, David

2016-12-13

When using area-level disadvantage measures, size of geographic unit can have major effects on recorded socioeconomic cancer disparities. This study examined the extent of changes in recorded socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival and distant stage when the measure of socioeconomic disadvantage was based on smaller Census Collection Districts (CDs) instead of Statistical Local Areas (SLAs). Population-based New South Wales Cancer Registry data were used to identify cases diagnosed with primary invasive cancer in 2000-2008 (n=264,236). Logistic regression and competing risk regression modelling were performed to examine socioeconomic differences in odds of distant stage and hazard of cancer death for all sites combined and separately for breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancers. For all sites collectively, associations between socioeconomic disadvantage and cancer survival and distant stage were stronger when the CD-based socioeconomic disadvantage measure was used compared with the SLA-based measure. The CD-based measure showed a more consistent socioeconomic gradient with a linear upward trend of risk of cancer death/distant stage with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage. Site-specific analyses provided similar findings for the risk of death but less consistent results for the likelihood of distant stage. The use of socioeconomic disadvantage measure based on the smallest available spatial unit should be encouraged in the future. Implications for Public Health: Disadvantage measures based on small spatial units can more accurately identify socioeconomic cancer disparities to inform priority settings in service planning. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

Gene Expression-Based Survival Prediction in Lung Adenocarcinoma: A Multi-Site, Blinded Validation Study

PubMed Central

Shedden, Kerby; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Enkemann, Steve A.; Tsao, Ming S.; Yeatman, Timothy J.; Gerald, William L.; Eschrich, Steve; Jurisica, Igor; Venkatraman, Seshan E.; Meyerson, Matthew; Kuick, Rork; Dobbin, Kevin K.; Lively, Tracy; Jacobson, James W.; Beer, David G.; Giordano, Thomas J.; Misek, David E.; Chang, Andrew C.; Zhu, Chang Qi; Strumpf, Dan; Hanash, Samir; Shepherd, Francis A.; Ding, Kuyue; Seymour, Lesley; Naoki, Katsuhiko; Pennell, Nathan; Weir, Barbara; Verhaak, Roel; Ladd-Acosta, Christine; Golub, Todd; Gruidl, Mike; Szoke, Janos; Zakowski, Maureen; Rusch, Valerie; Kris, Mark; Viale, Agnes; Motoi, Noriko; Travis, William; Sharma, Anupama

2009-01-01

Although prognostic gene expression signatures for survival in early stage lung cancer have been proposed, for clinical application it is critical to establish their performance across different subject populations and in different laboratories. Here we report a large, training-testing, multi-site blinded validation study to characterize the performance of several prognostic models based on gene expression for 442 lung adenocarcinomas. The hypotheses proposed examined whether microarray measurements of gene expression either alone or combined with basic clinical covariates (stage, age, sex) can be used to predict overall survival in lung cancer subjects. Several models examined produced risk scores that substantially correlated with actual subject outcome. Most methods performed better with clinical data, supporting the combined use of clinical and molecular information when building prognostic models for early stage lung cancer. This study also provides the largest available set of microarray data with extensive pathological and clinical annotation for lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:18641660

Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2017-01-01

Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4) forecasting population size.

Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

2015-05-01

We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

Evaluating the Number of Stages in Development of Squamous Cell and Adenocarcinomas across Cancer Sites Using Human Population-Based Cancer Modeling

PubMed Central

Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P.; Lyerly, H. Kim

2012-01-01

Background Adenocarcinomas (ACs) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) differ by clinical and molecular characteristics. We evaluated the characteristics of carcinogenesis by modeling the age patterns of incidence rates of ACs and SCCs of various organs to test whether these characteristics differed between cancer subtypes. Methodology/Principal Findings Histotype-specific incidence rates of 14 ACs and 12 SCCs from the SEER Registry (1973–2003) were analyzed by fitting several biologically motivated models to observed age patterns. A frailty model with the Weibull baseline was applied to each age pattern to provide the best fit for the majority of cancers. For each cancer, model parameters describing the underlying mechanisms of carcinogenesis including the number of stages occurring during an individual’s life and leading to cancer (m-stages) were estimated. For sensitivity analysis, the age-period-cohort model was incorporated into the carcinogenesis model to test the stability of the estimates. For the majority of studied cancers, the numbers of m-stages were similar within each group (i.e., AC and SCC). When cancers of the same organs were compared (i.e., lung, esophagus, and cervix uteri), the number of m-stages were more strongly associated with the AC/SCC subtype than with the organ: 9.79±0.09, 9.93±0.19 and 8.80±0.10 for lung, esophagus, and cervical ACs, compared to 11.41±0.10, 12.86±0.34 and 12.01±0.51 for SCCs of the respective organs (p<0.05 between subtypes). Most SCCs had more than ten m-stages while ACs had fewer than ten m-stages. The sensitivity analyses of the model parameters demonstrated the stability of the obtained estimates. Conclusions/Significance A model containing parameters capable of representing the number of stages of cancer development occurring during individual’s life was applied to the large population data on incidence of ACs and SCCs. The model revealed that the number of m-stages differed by cancer subtype being more strongly associated with ACs/SCCs histotype than with organ/site. PMID:22629394

Conditional Survival in Anal Carcinoma Using the National Population-Based Survey of Epidemiology and End Results Database (1988-2012).

PubMed

Kim, Ellen; Kim, Jong S; Choi, Mehee; Thomas, Charles R

2016-04-01

Conditional survival can provide valuable information for both patients and healthcare providers about the changing prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study estimated conditional survival for patients with anal cancer in the United States through analysis of a national population-based cancer registry. Log-rank test identified significant covariates of cause-specific survival (defined as time from diagnosis until death from anal cancer). Significant covariates were considered in the multivariable regression of cause-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards models. Covariates included cancer stage and demographic variables. Patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results regions diagnosed with anal squamous cell carcinoma as their first and only cancer diagnosis from 1988 to 2012 were selected from this database, and 5145 patients were included in the retrospective cohort study. Five-year conditional survival stratified by each variable in the final Cox models was measured : The final multivariable models of overall and cause-specific survivals included stage, grade, sex, age, race, and relationship status. Over the first 6 years after diagnosis, conditional survival of distant stage increased from 37% to 89%, whereas regional stage increased from 65% to 93% and localized stage increased from 84% to 96%. The other variables had increasing prognosis as well, but the subgroups increased at a more similar rate over time. The data source used does not include information on chemotherapy treatment, patient comorbidities, or socioeconomic status. Conditional survival showed improvement over time. Patients with advanced stage had the greatest improvement in conditional survival. This is the first study to provide specific conditional survival probabilities for patients with anal cancer.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of population-based screening of hepatocellular carcinoma: Comparing ultrasonography with two-stage screening

PubMed Central

Kuo, Ming-Jeng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Chi-Ling; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Lin, Yu-Min; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chang, Hung-Chuen; Lin, Yueh-Shih; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang

2016-01-01

AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two population-based hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography (AUS). METHODS: In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per life-year gained with a 3% annual discount rate. RESULTS: The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening. CONCLUSION: Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval. PMID:27022228

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Investigating the effect of invasion characteristics on onion thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) populations in onions with a temperature-driven process model.

PubMed

Mo, Jianhua; Stevens, Mark; Liu, De Li; Herron, Grant

2009-12-01

A temperature-driven process model was developed to describe the seasonal patterns of populations of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman, in onions. The model used daily cohorts (individuals of the same developmental stage and daily age) as the population unit. Stage transitions were modeled as a logistic function of accumulated degree-days to account for variability in development rate among individuals. Daily survival was modeled as a logistic function of daily mean temperature. Parameters for development, survival, and fecundity were estimated from published data. A single invasion event was used to initiate the population process, starting at 1-100 d after onion emergence (DAE) for 10-100 d at the daily rate of 0.001-0.9 adults/plant/d. The model was validated against five observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations from two unsprayed sites in the Riverina, New South Wales, Australia, during 2003-2006. Performance of the model was measured by a fit index based on the proportion of variations in observed data explained by the model (R (2)) and the differences in total thrips-days between observed and predicted populations. Satisfactory matching between simulated and observed seasonal patterns was obtained within the ranges of invasion parameters tested. Model best-fit was obtained at invasion starting dates of 6-98 DAE with a daily invasion rate of 0.002-0.2 adults/plant/d and an invasion duration of 30-100 d. Under the best-fit invasion scenarios, the model closely reproduced the observed seasonal patterns, explaining 73-95% of variability in adult and larval densities during population increase periods. The results showed that small invasions of adult thrips followed by a gradual population build-up of thrips within onion crops were sufficient to bring about the observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations in onion. Implications of the model on timing of chemical controls are discussed.

Applying the transtheoretical model to tobacco cessation and prevention: a review of literature.

PubMed

Spencer, Leslie; Pagell, Francie; Hallion, Maria Elena; Adams, Troy B

2002-01-01

To comprehensively review all published, peer-reviewed research on the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) and tobacco cessation and prevention by exploring the validity of its constructs, the evidence for use of interventions based on the TTM, the description of populations using TTM constructs, and the identification of areas for further research. The three research questions answered were: "How is the validity of the TTM as applied to tobacco supported by research?" "How does the TTM describe special populations regarding tobacco use?" "What is the nature of evidence supporting the use of stage-matched tobacco interventions?" Computer Database search (PsychInfo, Medline, Current Contents, ERIC, CINAHL-Allied Health, and Pro-Quest Nursing) and manual journal search. INCLUSION/EXCLUSION CRITERIA: All English, original, research articles on the TTM as it relates to tobacco use published in peer-reviewed journals prior to March 1, 2001, were included. Commentaries, editorials, and books were not included. Articles were categorized as TTM construct validation, population descriptions using TTM constructs, or intervention evaluation using TTM constructs. Summary tables including study design, research rating, purpose, methods, findings, and implications were created. Articles were further divided into groups according to their purpose. Considering both the findings and research quality of each, the three research questions were addressed. The 148 articles reviewed included 54 validation studies, 73 population studies, and 37 interventions (some articles fit two categories). Overall, the evidence in support of the TTM as applied to tobacco use was strong, with supportive studies being more numerous and of a better design than nonsupportive studies. Using established criteria, we rated the construct validity of the entire body of literature as good; however, notable concerns exist about the staging construct. A majority of stage-matched intervention studies provided positive results and were of a better quality than those not supportive of stage-matched interventions; thus, we rated the body of literature using stage-matched tobacco interventions as acceptable and the body of literature using non-stage-matched interventions as suggestive. Population studies indicated that TTM constructs are applicable to a wide variety of general and special populations both in and outside of the United States, although a few exceptions exist. Evidence for the validity of the TTM as it applies to tobacco use is strong and growing; however, it is not conclusive. Eight different staging mechanisms were identified, raising the question of which are most valid and reliable. Interventions tailored to a smoker's stage were successful more often than nontailored interventions in promoting forward stage movement. Stage distribution is well-documented for U.S. populations; however, more research is needed for non-U.S. populations, for special populations, and on other TTM constructs.

Randomization-Based Inference about Latent Variables from Complex Samples: The Case of Two-Stage Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Tiandong

2012-01-01

In large-scale assessments, such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), plausible values based on Multiple Imputations (MI) have been used to estimate population characteristics for latent constructs under complex sample designs. Mislevy (1991) derived a closed-form analytic solution for a fixed-effect model in creating…

Role of age and tumour stage in the temporal pattern of 'cure' from stomach cancer: a population-based study in Osaka, Japan.

PubMed

Ito, Yuri; Nakayama, Tomio; Tsukuma, Hideaki; Miyashiro, Isao; Ioka, Akiko; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Rachet, Bernard

2012-04-01

To evaluate progress in stomach cancer care in Japan since 1975. Population-based study of data extracted from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Population-based cancer registry in the area of Osaka Prefecture. All 66,032 cases diagnosed with a stomach cancer in Osaka Prefecture, Japan between 1975 and 2000 and registered in the Osaka Cancer Registry. 'Cure' fraction and median survival time for 'uncured' patients were estimated with multivariable mixture 'cure' model. The role played by age and stage at diagnosis on the changes in 'cure' parameters between 1975 and 2000 was evaluated. Missing stage was handled by multiple imputation approach. More than 50% of the patients diagnosed with a stomach cancer in 1996-2000 were estimated 'cured' from their cancer, corresponding to a 20% increase since 1975-1980. Median survival time for 'uncured' patients however remained unchanged at about 8 months. 'Cure' fraction was over 85% for localised tumours and 30% for regional tumours, but stayed as low as 2.5% for distant metastatic cancers. Improvement was underestimated by about 10% because of ageing of cancer patients. Changes in stage distribution explained up to 40% of the increase in 'cure' fraction among men and up to 13% in women. Overdiagnosis was unlikely to play any role in these patterns. 'Cure' fraction from stomach cancer dramatically increased in Osaka, Japan since 1975, partly because of earlier stage at diagnosis, but mostly due to improvement in treatment of stomach cancer patients. This study, based on a leading country in term of stomach cancer management, provides insightful results for other countries in which 'cure' fraction is usually much lower. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A biologically based model of growth and senescence of Syrian hamster embryo (SHE) cells after exposure to arsenic.

PubMed Central

Liao, K H; Gustafson, D L; Fox, M H; Chubb, L S; Reardon, K F; Yang, R S

2001-01-01

We modified the two-stage Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) model for use with Syrian hamster embryo (SHE) cell neoplastic progression. Five phenotypic stages are proposed in this model: Normal cells can either become senescent or mutate into immortal cells followed by anchorage-independent growth and tumorigenic stages. The growth of normal SHE cells was controlled by their division, death, and senescence rates, and all senescent cells were converted from normal cells. In this report, we tested the modeling of cell kinetics of the first two phenotypic stages against experimental data evaluating the effects of arsenic on SHE cells. We assessed cell division and death rates using flow cytometry and correlated cell division rates to the degree of confluence of cell cultures. The mean cell death rate was approximately equal to 1% of the average division rate. Arsenic did not induce immortalization or further mutations of SHE cells at concentrations of 2 microM and below, and chromium (3.6 microM) and lead (100 microM) had similar negative results. However, the growth of SHE cells was inhibited by 5.4 microM arsenic after a 2-day exposure, with cells becoming senescent after only 16 population doublings. In contrast, normal cells and cells exposed to lower arsenic concentrations grew normally for at least 30 population doublings. The biologically based model successfully predicted the growth of normal and arsenic-treated cells, as well as the senescence rates. Mechanisms responsible for inducing cellular senescence in SHE cells exposed to arsenic may help explain the apparent inability of arsenic to induce neoplasia in experimental animals. PMID:11748027

Breast cancer mortality in African-American and non-Hispanic white women by molecular subtype and stage at diagnosis: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Tao, Li; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Keegan, Theresa HM; Kurian, Allison W.; Clarke, Christina A.

2015-01-01

Background Higher breast cancer mortality rates for African-American than non-Hispanic white women are well documented; however, it remains uncertain if this disparity occurs in disease subgroups defined by tumor molecular markers and stage at diagnosis. We examined racial differences in outcome according to subtype and stage in a diverse, population-based series of 103,498 patients. Methods We obtained data for all invasive breast cancers diagnosed 1/1/2005-12/31/2012 and followed through 12/31/2012 among 93,760 non-Hispanic white and 9,738 African-American women in California. Molecular subtypes were categorized according to tumor expression of hormone receptor (HR, based on estrogen and progesterone receptors) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for breast cancer-specific mortality. Results After adjustment for patient, tumor and treatment characteristics, outcomes were comparable by race for Stage I or IV cancer regardless of subtype, and HR+/HER2+ or HR-/HER2+ cancer regardless of stage. We found substantially higher hazards of breast cancer death among African-American women with Stage II/III HR+/HER2- (HR, 1.31, 95% CI, 1.03-1.65, and HR, 1.39, 95% CI, 1.10-1.75, respectively) and Stage III triple-negative cancers relative to whites. Conclusions There are substantial racial/ethnic disparities among patients with Stages II/III HR+/HER2- and Stage III triple-negative breast cancers but not for other subtype and stage. Impact These data provide insights to assess barriers to targeted treatment (e.g. trastuzumab or endocrine therapy) of particular subtypes of breast cancer among African-American patients. PMID:25969506

Breast Cancer Mortality in African-American and Non-Hispanic White Women by Molecular Subtype and Stage at Diagnosis: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Tao, Li; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Keegan, Theresa H M; Kurian, Allison W; Clarke, Christina A

2015-07-01

Higher breast cancer mortality rates for African-American than non-Hispanic White women are well documented; however, it remains uncertain if this disparity occurs in disease subgroups defined by tumor molecular markers and stage at diagnosis. We examined racial differences in outcome according to subtype and stage in a diverse, population-based series of 103,498 patients. We obtained data for all invasive breast cancers diagnosed between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2012, and followed through December 31, 2012, among 93,760 non-Hispanic White and 9,738 African-American women in California. Molecular subtypes were categorized according to tumor expression of hormone receptor (HR, based on estrogen and progesterone receptors) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate relative hazard (RH) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for breast cancer-specific mortality. After adjustment for patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics, outcomes were comparable by race for stage I or IV cancer regardless of subtype, and HR(+)/HER2(+) or HR(-)/HER2(+) cancer regardless of stage. We found substantially higher hazards of breast cancer death among African-American women with stage II/III HR(+)/HER2(-) (RH, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.65; and RH, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.10-1.75, respectively) and stage III triple-negative cancers relative to Whites. There are substantial racial/ethnic disparities among patients with stages II/III HR(+)/HER2(-) and stage III triple-negative breast cancers but not for other subtype and stage. These data provide insights to assess barriers to targeted treatment (e.g., trastuzumab or endocrine therapy) of particular subtypes of breast cancer among African-American patients. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Developing symptom-based predictive models of endometriosis as a clinical screening tool: results from a multicenter study

PubMed Central

Nnoaham, Kelechi E.; Hummelshoj, Lone; Kennedy, Stephen H.; Jenkinson, Crispin; Zondervan, Krina T.

2012-01-01

Objective To generate and validate symptom-based models to predict endometriosis among symptomatic women prior to undergoing their first laparoscopy. Design Prospective, observational, two-phase study, in which women completed a 25-item questionnaire prior to surgery. Setting Nineteen hospitals in 13 countries. Patient(s) Symptomatic women (n = 1,396) scheduled for laparoscopy without a previous surgical diagnosis of endometriosis. Intervention(s) None. Main Outcome Measure(s) Sensitivity and specificity of endometriosis diagnosis predicted by symptoms and patient characteristics from optimal models developed using multiple logistic regression analyses in one data set (phase I), and independently validated in a second data set (phase II) by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Result(s) Three hundred sixty (46.7%) women in phase I and 364 (58.2%) in phase II were diagnosed with endometriosis at laparoscopy. Menstrual dyschezia (pain on opening bowels) and a history of benign ovarian cysts most strongly predicted both any and stage III and IV endometriosis in both phases. Prediction of any-stage endometriosis, although improved by ultrasound scan evidence of cyst/nodules, was relatively poor (area under the curve [AUC] = 68.3). Stage III and IV disease was predicted with good accuracy (AUC = 84.9, sensitivity of 82.3% and specificity 75.8% at an optimal cut-off of 0.24). Conclusion(s) Our symptom-based models predict any-stage endometriosis relatively poorly and stage III and IV disease with good accuracy. Predictive tools based on such models could help to prioritize women for surgical investigation in clinical practice and thus contribute to reducing time to diagnosis. We invite other researchers to validate the key models in additional populations. PMID:22657249

Modelling the effects of stranding on the Atlantic salmon population in the Dale River, Norway.

PubMed

Sauterleute, Julian F; Hedger, Richard D; Hauer, Christoph; Pulg, Ulrich; Skoglund, Helge; Sundt-Hansen, Line E; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Ugedal, Ola

2016-12-15

Rapid dewatering in rivers as a consequence of hydropower operations may cause stranding of juvenile fish and have a negative impact on fish populations. We implemented stranding into an Atlantic salmon population model in order to evaluate long-term effects on the population in the Dale River, Western Norway. Furthermore, we assessed the sensitivity of the stranding model to dewatered area in comparison to biological parameters, and compared different methods for calculating wetted area, the main abiotic input parameter to the population model. Five scenarios were simulated dependent on fish life-stage, season and light level. Our simulation results showed largest negative effect on the population abundance for hydropeaking during winter daylight. Salmon smolt production had highest sensitivity to the stranding mortality of older juvenile fish, suggesting that stranding of fish at these life-stages is likely to have greater population impacts than that of earlier life-stages. Downstream retention effects on the ramping velocity were found to be negligible in the stranding model, but are suggested to be important in the context of mitigation measure design. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health promotion communications system: a model for a dispersed population.

PubMed

Foran, M; Campanelli, L C

1995-11-01

1. Corporations with geographically dispersed populations need to provide flexible health promotion programs tailored to meet specific employee interests and needs. 2. Bell Atlantic developed a dispersed model approach based on the transtheoretical model of behavior change. The key to this model is to identify at which stage the individual is operating and provide appropriate information and behavior change programs. 3. Components of the program include: health risk appraisal; exercise/activity tracking system; on line nurse health information service; network of fitness facilities; employee assistance programs; health library available by fax; health film library; network of health promotion volunteers; and targeted health and marketing messaged via corporate media.

Changes in Black-legged Tick Population in New England with Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Huber, M.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is one of the most frequently reported vector-borne diseases in the United States. In the Northeastern United States, vector transmission is maintained in a horizontal transmission cycle between the vector, the black-legged ticks, and the vertebrate reservoir hosts, which include white-tailed deer, rodents and other medium to large sized mammals. Predicting how vector populations change with future climate change is critical to understanding disease spread in the future, and for developing suitable regional adaptation strategies. For the United States, these predictions have mostly been made using regressions based on field and lab studies, or using spatial suitability studies. However, the relation between tick populations at various life-cycle stages and climate variables are complex, necessitating a mechanistic approach. In this study, we present a framework for driving a mechanistic tick population model with high-resolution regional climate modeling projections. The goal is to estimate changes in black-legged tick populations in New England for the 21st century. The tick population model used is based on the mechanistic approach of Ogden et al., (2005) developed for Canada. Dynamically downscaled climate projections at a 3-kms resolution using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) are used to drive the tick population model.

The Implications of Ecologically Based Assessment for Primary Prevention with Indigenous Youth Populations

PubMed Central

Okamoto, Scott K.; LeCroy, Craig Winston; Tann, Sheila S.; Rayle, Andrea Dixon; Kulis, Stephen; Dustman, Patricia; Berceli, David

2011-01-01

This paper describes a five-stage approach toward conducting an ecologically based assessment with Indigenous youth populations, and the implications of this approach for the development and implementation of culturally grounded prevention interventions. A description of a pilot study funded by the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIH/NIDA) focused on drug use and American Indian youth is presented as one model for operationalizing ecologically based assessment with Indigenous youth populations, and issues related to translating the pilot study into a prevention intervention are discussed. This paper suggests that ecologically based assessment can serve as a foundation for culturally grounded prevention interventions, promoting the social and ecological validity of those interventions. PMID:16534658

Mortality sensitivity in life-stage simulation analysis: A case study of southern sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.; Jessup, David A.

2004-01-01

Currently, there are no generally recognized approaches for linking detailed mortality and pathology data to population-level analyses of extinction risk. We used a combination of analytical and simulation-based analyses to examine 20 years of age- and sex-specific mortality data for southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris), and we applied results to project the efficacy of alternative conservation strategies. Population recovery of the southern sea otter has been slow (rate of population increase ?? = 1.05) compared to other recovering populations (?? = 1.17-1.20), and the population declined (?? = 0.975) between 1995 and 1999. Age-based Leslie matrices were developed to explore explanations for the slow recovery and recent decline in the southern sea other population. An elasticity analysis was performed to predict effects of proportional changes in stage-specific reproductive or survival rates on the rate of population increase. A life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) was developed to evaluate the impact of changing age- and cause-specific mortality rates on ??. The information used to develop these models was derived from death assemblage, pathology, and live population census data to examine the sensitivity of sea otter population growth to different sources of mortality (e.g., disease and starvation, direct human take [fisheries, gun shot, boat strike, oil pollution], mating trauma and intraspecific aggression, shark bites, and unknown). We used resampling simulations to generate random combinations of vital rates for a large number of matrix replicates and drew on these to estimate potential effects of mortality sources on population growth (??). Our analyses suggest management actions that are likely and unlikely to promote recovery of the southern sea otter and more broadly indicate a methodology to better utilize cause-of-death data in conservation decision-making.

Critically evaluating best management practices for preventing freshwater turtle extinctions.

PubMed

Spencer, R-J; Van Dyke, J U; Thompson, Michael B

2017-12-01

Ex situ conservation tools, such as captive breeding for reintroduction, are considered a last resort to recover threatened or endangered species, but they may also help reduce anthropogenic threats where it is difficult or impossible to address them directly. Headstarting, or captive rearing of eggs or neonate animals for subsequent release into the wild, is controversial because it treats only a symptom of a larger conservation problem; however, it may provide a mechanism to address multiple threats, particularly near population centers. We conducted a population viability analysis of Australia's most widespread freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, to determine the effect of adult roadkill (death by collision with motor vehicles), which is increasing, and reduced recruitment through nest predation from introduced European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We also modeled management scenarios to test the effectiveness of headstarting, fox management, and measures to reduce mortality on roads. Only scenarios with headstarting from source populations eliminated all risks of extinction and allowed population growth. Small increases in adult mortality (2%) had the greatest effect on population growth and extinction risk. Where threats simultaneously affected other life-history stages (e.g., recruitment), eliminating harvest pressures on adult females alone did not eliminate the risk of population extinction. In our models, one source population could supply enough hatchlings annually to supplement 25 other similar-sized populations such that extinction was avoided. Based on our results, we believe headstarting should be a primary tool for managing freshwater turtles for which threats affect multiple life-history stages. We advocate the creation of source populations for managing freshwater turtles that are greatly threatened at multiple life-history stages, such as depredation of eggs by invasive species and adult mortality via roadkill. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

A two-stage cluster sampling method using gridded population data, a GIS, and Google Earth(TM) imagery in a population-based mortality survey in Iraq.

PubMed

Galway, Lp; Bell, Nathaniel; Sae, Al Shatari; Hagopian, Amy; Burnham, Gilbert; Flaxman, Abraham; Weiss, Wiliam M; Rajaratnam, Julie; Takaro, Tim K

2012-04-27

Mortality estimates can measure and monitor the impacts of conflict on a population, guide humanitarian efforts, and help to better understand the public health impacts of conflict. Vital statistics registration and surveillance systems are rarely functional in conflict settings, posing a challenge of estimating mortality using retrospective population-based surveys. We present a two-stage cluster sampling method for application in population-based mortality surveys. The sampling method utilizes gridded population data and a geographic information system (GIS) to select clusters in the first sampling stage and Google Earth TM imagery and sampling grids to select households in the second sampling stage. The sampling method is implemented in a household mortality study in Iraq in 2011. Factors affecting feasibility and methodological quality are described. Sampling is a challenge in retrospective population-based mortality studies and alternatives that improve on the conventional approaches are needed. The sampling strategy presented here was designed to generate a representative sample of the Iraqi population while reducing the potential for bias and considering the context specific challenges of the study setting. This sampling strategy, or variations on it, are adaptable and should be considered and tested in other conflict settings.

A two-stage cluster sampling method using gridded population data, a GIS, and Google EarthTM imagery in a population-based mortality survey in Iraq

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Mortality estimates can measure and monitor the impacts of conflict on a population, guide humanitarian efforts, and help to better understand the public health impacts of conflict. Vital statistics registration and surveillance systems are rarely functional in conflict settings, posing a challenge of estimating mortality using retrospective population-based surveys. Results We present a two-stage cluster sampling method for application in population-based mortality surveys. The sampling method utilizes gridded population data and a geographic information system (GIS) to select clusters in the first sampling stage and Google Earth TM imagery and sampling grids to select households in the second sampling stage. The sampling method is implemented in a household mortality study in Iraq in 2011. Factors affecting feasibility and methodological quality are described. Conclusion Sampling is a challenge in retrospective population-based mortality studies and alternatives that improve on the conventional approaches are needed. The sampling strategy presented here was designed to generate a representative sample of the Iraqi population while reducing the potential for bias and considering the context specific challenges of the study setting. This sampling strategy, or variations on it, are adaptable and should be considered and tested in other conflict settings. PMID:22540266

Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

2013-09-01

Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our opinion, the continued development of biophysical models that close the life cycle (depict all life stages) offers the best chance of revealing processes causing historical fluctuations on the productivity and distribution of small pelagic fishes and to project future climate-driven impacts. Correctly representing physiological-based mechanisms will increase confidence in the outcomes of models simulating the potential impacts of bottom-up processes, a first step towards evaluating the mixture of factors and processes (e.g. intra-guild dynamics, predation, fisheries exploitation) which interact with climate to affect populations of small pelagic fishes. Understand the impacts of reduced growth rates during the juvenile stage on the process of maturation and spawning condition of small pelagic fishes. Examine the effects of changes in prey quality on the duration and magnitude of spawning by small pelagic fishes to capture how climate-driven changes in zooplankton species composition might act as a “bottom-up” regulator of fish productivity. Identify the drivers for spawning location and timing to better understand how spawning dynamics may be influenced by climate change (e.g. changes in water salinity or turbidity resulting from changes in river discharges or wind-driven turbulence, respectively).

Physiological-based modelling of marine fish early life stages provides process knowledge on climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, M. A.

2016-02-01

Gaining a cause-and-effect understanding of climate-driven changes in marine fish populations at appropriate spatial scales is important for providing robust advice for ecosystem-based fisheries management. Coupling long-term, retrospective analyses and 3-d biophysical, individual-based models (IBMs) shows great potential to reveal mechanism underlying historical changes and to project future changes in marine fishes. IBMs created for marine fish early life stages integrate organismal-level physiological responses and climate-driven changes in marine habitats (from ocean physics to lower trophic level productivity) to test and reveal processes affecting marine fish recruitment. Case studies are provided for hindcasts and future (A1 and B2 projection) simulations performed on some of the most ecologically- and commercially-important pelagic and demersal fishes in the North Sea including European anchovy, Atlantic herring, European sprat and Atlantic cod. We discuss the utility of coupling biophysical IBMs to size-spectrum models to better project indirect (trophodynamic) pathways of climate influence on the early life stages of these and other fishes. Opportunities and challenges are discussed regarding the ability of these physiological-based tools to capture climate-driven changes in living marine resources and food web dynamics of shelf seas.

Identifying critical life stage transitions for biological control of long-lived perennial Vincetoxicum species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic matrix modeling of invasive plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions for targeted disruption in order to cause population decline. This approach can provide quantitative estimates of reductions in select vital rates needed to reduce population growt...

Extinction-effective population index: incorporating life-history variations in population viability analysis.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami

2007-09-01

Viability status of populations is a commonly used measure for decision-making in the management of populations. One of the challenges faced by managers is the need to consistently allocate management effort among populations. This allocation should in part be based on comparison of extinction risks among populations. Unfortunately, common criteria that use minimum viable population size or count-based population viability analysis (PVA) often do not provide results that are comparable among populations, primarily because they lack consistency in determining population size measures and threshold levels of population size (e.g., minimum viable population size and quasi-extinction threshold). Here I introduce a new index called the "extinction-effective population index," which accounts for differential effects of demographic stochasticity among organisms with different life-history strategies and among individuals in different life stages. This index is expected to become a new way of determining minimum viable population size criteria and also complement the count-based PVA. The index accounts for the difference in life-history strategies of organisms, which are modeled using matrix population models. The extinction-effective population index, sensitivity, and elasticity are demonstrated in three species of Pacific salmonids. The interpretation of the index is also provided by comparing them with existing demographic indices. Finally, a measure of life-history-specific effect of demographic stochasticity is derived.

Analysis of creative mathematic thinking ability in problem based learning model based on self-regulation learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munahefi, D. N.; Waluya, S. B.; Rochmad

2018-03-01

The purpose of this research identified the effectiveness of Problem Based Learning (PBL) models based on Self Regulation Leaning (SRL) on the ability of mathematical creative thinking and analyzed the ability of mathematical creative thinking of high school students in solving mathematical problems. The population of this study was students of grade X SMA N 3 Klaten. The research method used in this research was sequential explanatory. Quantitative stages with simple random sampling technique, where two classes were selected randomly as experimental class was taught with the PBL model based on SRL and control class was taught with expository model. The selection of samples at the qualitative stage was non-probability sampling technique in which each selected 3 students were high, medium, and low academic levels. PBL model with SRL approach effectived to students’ mathematical creative thinking ability. The ability of mathematical creative thinking of low academic level students with PBL model approach of SRL were achieving the aspect of fluency and flexibility. Students of academic level were achieving fluency and flexibility aspects well. But the originality of students at the academic level was not yet well structured. Students of high academic level could reach the aspect of originality.

Population profiling in China by gender and age: implication for HIV incidences.

PubMed

Pan, Yuanyi; Wu, Jianhong

2009-11-18

With the world's largest population, HIV spread in China has been closely watched and widely studied by its government and the international community. One important factor that might contribute to the epidemic is China's numerous surplus of men, due to its imbalanced sex ratio in newborns. However, the sex ratio in the human population is often assumed to be 1:1 in most studies of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here, a mathematical model is proposed to estimate the population size in each gender and within different stages of reproduction and sexual activities. This population profiling by age and gender will assist in more precise prediction of HIV incidences. The total population is divided into 6 subgroups by gender and age. A deterministic compartmental model is developed to describe birth, death, age and the interactions among different subgroups, with a focus on the preference for newborn boys and its impact for the sex ratios. Data from 2003 to 2007 is used to estimate model parameters, and simulations predict short-term and long-term population profiles. The population of China will go to a descending track around 2030. Despite the possible underestimated number of newborns in the last couple of years, model-based simulations show that there will be about 28 million male individuals in 2055 without female partners during their sexually active stages. The birth rate in China must be increased to keep the population viable. But increasing the birth rate without balancing the sex ratio in newborns is problematic, as this will generate a large number of surplus males. Besides other social, economic and psychological issues, the impact of this surplus of males on STD incidences, including HIV infections, must be dealt with as early as possible.

A Variable-Instar Climate-Driven Individual Beetle-Based Phenology Model for the Invasive Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Trotter, R Talbot; Keena, Melody A

2016-12-01

Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology model for A. glabripennis that provides simulated life-tables for populations of individual beetles under variable climatic conditions that takes into account the variable number of instars beetles may undergo as larvae. Phenology parameters in the model are based on a synthesis of published data and studies of A. glabripennis, and the model output was evaluated using a laboratory-reared population maintained under varying temperatures mimicking those typical of Central Park in New York City. The model was stable under variations in population size, simulation length, and the Julian dates used to initiate individual beetles within the population. Comparison of model results with previously published field-based phenology studies in native and invasive populations indicates both this new phenology model, and the previously published heating-degree-day model show good agreement in the prediction of the beginning of the flight season for adults. However, the phenology model described here avoids underpredicting the cumulative emergence of adults through the season, in addition to providing tables of life stages and estimations of voltinism for local populations. This information can play a key role in evaluating risk by predicting the potential for population growth, and may facilitate the optimization of management and eradication efforts. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Radiotherapy demand and activity in England 2006-2020.

PubMed

Round, C E; Williams, M V; Mee, T; Kirkby, N F; Cooper, T; Hoskin, P; Jena, R

2013-09-01

This paper compares the predictions of radiotherapy demand for England from the Malthus model with those from the earlier National Radiotherapy Advisory Group (NRAG) model, from the international literature and also with observed radiotherapy usage in England as a whole as recorded in the English radiotherapy dataset (RTDS). We reviewed the evidence base for radiotherapy for each type and stage of cancer using national and international guidelines, meta-analyses, systematic reviews and key clinical trials. Twenty-two decision trees were constructed and radiotherapy demand was calculated using English cancer incidence data for 2007, 2008 and 2009, accurate to the Primary Care Trust (PCT) level (population 91,500-1,282,384). The stage at presentation was obtained from English cancer registry data. In predictive mode, the model can take account of changes in cancer incidence as the population grows and ages. The Malthus model indicates reduced indications for radiotherapy, principally for lung cancer and rarer tumours. Our estimate of the proportion of patients who should receive radiotherapy at some stage of their illness is 40.6%. This is lower than previous estimates of about 50%. Nevertheless, the overall estimate of demand in terms of attendances is similar for the NRAG and Malthus models. The latter models that 48,827 attendances should have been delivered per million population in 2011. National data from RTDS show 32,071 attendances per million in 2011. A 50% increase in activity would be required to match estimated demand. This underprovision extends across all cancers and represents reduced access and the use of dose fractionation at odds with international norms of evidence-based practice. By 2016, demand is predicted to grow to about 55,206 attendances per million and by 2020 to 60,057. Services have increased their activity by 14% between 2006 and 2011, but estimated demand has increased by 11%. Access remains low and English radiotherapy dose fractionation still does not comply with international evidence-based practice. Copyright © 2013 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

Estimating neural response functions from fMRI

PubMed Central

Kumar, Sukhbinder; Penny, William

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for estimating Neural Response Functions (NRFs) from fMRI data. These NRFs describe non-linear relationships between experimental stimuli and neuronal population responses. The method is based on a two-stage model comprising an NRF and a Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF) that are simultaneously fitted to fMRI data using a Bayesian optimization algorithm. This algorithm also produces a model evidence score, providing a formal model comparison method for evaluating alternative NRFs. The HRF is characterized using previously established “Balloon” and BOLD signal models. We illustrate the method with two example applications based on fMRI studies of the auditory system. In the first, we estimate the time constants of repetition suppression and facilitation, and in the second we estimate the parameters of population receptive fields in a tonotopic mapping study. PMID:24847246

THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF POPULATION GROWTH TO SURVIVAL, GROWTH AND REPRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

Matrix population models are often used to extrapolate from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to population-level effects. Demographic elasticity analysis of a matrix model allows an evaluation of the relative sensitivity of population growth rate ...

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effects of food conditions on the development of the population of Temora stylifera: A modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzocchi, M. G.; Buffoni, G.; Carotenuto, Y.; Pasquali, S.; Ribera d'Alcalà, M.

2006-08-01

We integrated field and laboratory data with modeling to determine the extent to which the temporal patterns in population abundance of a copepod species as observed at sea may be explained by differences in production and mortality rates due to diet. A Lagrangian individual-based model utilizing birth and mortality rates whose values and variance were derived from the effects of dietary composition was implemented to simulate the growth of the multi-staged population of Temora stylifera. The four diets considered were represented by unialgal cultures of the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum or the diatom Thalassiosira rotula, a mixture of the two species, and natural particle assemblages < 50 μm. The aim of this work was to set up an exemplary study on a debated issue, i.e., whether the insidious effect of a diatom diet demonstrated in laboratory experiments plays a role in the time course of copepod populations in situ. Our numerical simulations showed that differences in life history parameters, as mainly dependent on diet, caused remarkably different population growth rates. However, our model reproduced the pattern of an average seasonal cycle of T. stylifera in Mediterranean coastal waters only when it utilized time-dependent field data, which evidently integrate all conditions the animals experience at sea. Proper tuning of the mortality term of developmental stages was crucial to reproduce the pattern of the time course of T. stylifera abundance in situ, which confirms that this term plays a major role in shaping the copepod population dynamics. The model also showed that, while dietary composition affects the population growth, it is far from being the only determinant of the cycle of abundance of T. stylifera at sea.

A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

2006-01-01

Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a Bayesian hierarchical discrete-choice model for resource selection can provide managers with 2 components of population-level inference: average population selection and variability of selection. Both components are necessary to make sound management decisions based on animal selection.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 2: Application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the Ms = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.

Degree Day Requirements for Kudzu Bug (Hemiptera: Plataspidae), a Pest of Soybeans.

PubMed

Grant, Jessica I; Lamp, William O

2018-04-02

Understanding the phenology of a new potential pest is fundamental for the development of a management program. Megacopta cribraria Fabricius (Hemiptera: Plataspidae), kudzu bug, is a pest of soybeans first detected in the United States in 2009 and in Maryland in 2013. We observed the phenology of kudzu bug life stages in Maryland, created a Celsius degree-day (CDD) model for development, and characterized the difference between microhabitat and ambient temperatures of both kudzu, Pueraria montana (Lour.) Merr. (Fabales: Fabaceae) and soybeans, Glycine max (L.) Merrill (Fabales: Fabaceae). In 2014, low population numbers yielded limited resolution from field phenology observations. We observed kudzu bug populations persisting within Maryland; but between 2013 and 2016, populations were low compared to populations in the southeastern United States. Based on the degree-day model, kudzu bug eggs require 80 CDD at a minimum temperature of 14°C to hatch. Nymphs require 545 CDD with a minimum temperature of 16°C for development. The CDD model matches field observations when factoring a biofix date of April 1 and a minimum preoviposition period of 17 d. The model suggests two full generations per year in Maryland. Standard air temperature monitors do not affect model predictions for pest management, as microhabitat temperature differences did not show a clear trend between kudzu and soybeans. Ultimately, producers can predict the timing of kudzu bug life stages with the CDD model for the use of timing management plans in soybean fields.

A Population-Based Comparative Effectiveness Study of Radiation Therapy Techniques in Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, Jeremy P.; Murphy, James D.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.

2014-03-15

Purpose: Concerns have been raised about the potential for worse treatment outcomes because of dosimetric inaccuracies related to tumor motion and increased toxicity caused by the spread of low-dose radiation to normal tissues in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). We therefore performed a population-based comparative effectiveness analysis of IMRT, conventional 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT), and 2-dimensional radiation therapy (2D-RT) in stage III NSCLC. Methods and Materials: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database to identify a cohort of patients diagnosed with stage III NSCLC frommore » 2002 to 2009 treated with IMRT, 3D-CRT, or 2D-RT. Using Cox regression and propensity score matching, we compared survival and toxicities of these treatments. Results: The proportion of patients treated with IMRT increased from 2% in 2002 to 25% in 2009, and the use of 2D-RT decreased from 32% to 3%. In univariate analysis, IMRT was associated with improved overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio [HR] 0.90, P=.02) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (HR 0.89, P=.02). After controlling for confounders, IMRT was associated with similar OS (HR 0.94, P=.23) and CSS (HR 0.94, P=.28) compared with 3D-CRT. Both techniques had superior OS compared with 2D-RT. IMRT was associated with similar toxicity risks on multivariate analysis compared with 3D-CRT. Propensity score matched model results were similar to those from adjusted models. Conclusions: In this population-based analysis, IMRT for stage III NSCLC was associated with similar OS and CSS and maintained similar toxicity risks compared with 3D-CRT.« less

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

PubMed Central

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P.; McMahon, Clive R.; Hindell, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model’s ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals. PMID:29596456

Cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer: an estimate using the Population Health Model lung cancer module.

PubMed

Evans, W K

1997-04-01

Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) is in the process of developing the Population Health Model to simulate the health and common illnesses of Canadians. The Population Health Model incorporates a lung cancer module that is based on contemporary Canadian practice. This microsimulation model can be used to estimate the total direct care costs of treating all lung cancer cases diagnosed in Canada and to evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of new therapeutic interventions as they are introduced into practice. Gemcitabine, a new nucleoside analogue with a broad spectrum of antitumor activity, is about to be introduced on the Canadian market. The Population Health Model has been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in the management of lung cancer over a range of drug doses per treatment cycle starting at 1,000 mg/m2 weekly x 3, as well as potential survival benefits. The survival of stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated on an international trial of gemcitabine (EO-18) was used to estimate the potential survival gain relative to the survival of stage IV NSCLC patients managed with best supportive care on a randomized trial conducted by the National Cancer Institute of Canada (BR 5). Sensitivity analyses were performed assuming that the survival gain was 25% or 50% less than that reported in the EO-18 trial. The perspective of the economic analysis is that of the government as payer in a universal health care system, and all costs are expressed in 1993 Canadian dollars. Based on the apparent survival advantage of the EO-18 trial in comparison to best supportive care, the cost per life-year gained ranged from $632 to $9,285, depending on the dose per treatment cycle. At the highest dose per cycle (2,000 mg/m2) and with survival reduced by 50% as compared with the EO-18 result, the cost per life-year gained was estimated to be $17,390. From these estimates of direct care costs in the Canadian health care system, gemcitabine appears to be a cost-effective intervention for advanced NSCLC.

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, E.F.; Kraft, C.E.; Cooch, E.G.; Sullivan, P.J.

2009-01-01

Population control through harvest has the potential to reduce the abundance of nuisance and invasive species. However, demographic structure and density-dependent processes can confound removal efforts and lead to undesirable consequences, such as overcompensation (an increase in abundance in response to harvest) and instability (population cycling or chaos). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated the potential for increased mortality (such as that caused by harvest) to lead to overcompensation and instability in plant, insect, and fish populations. We developed a general population model with juvenile and adult stages to help determine the conditions under which control harvest efforts can produce unintended outcomes. Analytical and simulation analyses of the model demonstrated that the potential for overcompensation as a result of harvest was significant for species with high fecundity, even when annual stage-specific survivorship values were fairly low. Population instability as a result of harvest occurred less frequently and was only possible with harvest strategies that targeted adults when both fecundity and adult survivorship were high. We considered these results in conjunction with current literature on nuisance and invasive species to propose general guidelines for assessing the risks associated with control harvest based on life history characteristics of target populations. Our results suggest that species with high per capita fecundity (over discrete breeding periods), short juvenile stages, and fairly constant survivorship rates are most likely to respond undesirably to harvest. It is difficult to determine the extent to which overcompensation and instability could occur during real-world removal efforts, and more empirical removal studies should be undertaken to evaluate population-level responses to control harvests. Nevertheless, our results identify key issues that have been seldom acknowledged and are potentially generic across taxa. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society ot America.

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire?

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Kraft, Clifford E; Cooch, Evan G; Sullivan, Patrick J

2009-09-01

Population control through harvest has the potential to reduce the abundance of nuisance and invasive species. However, demographic structure and density-dependent processes can confound removal efforts and lead to undesirable consequences, such as overcompensation (an increase in abundance in response to harvest) and instability (population cycling or chaos). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated the potential for increased mortality (such as that caused by harvest) to lead to overcompensation and instability in plant, insect, and fish populations. We developed a general population model with juvenile and adult stages to help determine the conditions under which control harvest efforts can produce unintended outcomes. Analytical and simulation analyses of the model demonstrated that the potential for overcompensation as a result of harvest was significant for species with high fecundity, even when annual stage-specific survivorship values were fairly low. Population instability as a result of harvest occurred less frequently and was only possible with harvest strategies that targeted adults when both fecundity and adult survivorship were high. We considered these results in conjunction with current literature on nuisance and invasive species to propose general guidelines for assessing the risks associated with control harvest based on life history characteristics of target populations. Our results suggest that species with high per capita fecundity (over discrete breeding periods), short juvenile stages, and fairly constant survivorship rates are most likely to respond undesirably to harvest. It is difficult to determine the extent to which overcompensation and instability could occur during real-world removal efforts, and more empirical removal studies should be undertaken to evaluate population-level responses to control harvests. Nevertheless, our results identify key issues that have been seldom acknowledged and are potentially generic across taxa.

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

PubMed

Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

2012-02-01

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

[Community stability for spruce-fir forest at different succession stages in Changbai Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Zhang, Meng-tao; Zhang, Qing; Kang, Xin-gang; Yang, Ying-jun; Xu, Guang; Zhang, Li-xin

2015-06-01

Based on the analysis of three forest communities (polar-birch secondary forest, spruce-fir mixed forest, spruce-fir near pristine forest) in Changbai Mountains, a total of 22 factors of 5 indices, including the population regeneration, soil fertility (soil moisture and soli nutrient), woodland productivity and species diversity that reflected community characteristics were used to evaluate the stability of forest community succession at different stages by calculating subordinate function values of a model based on fuzzy mathematics. The results that the indices of population regeneration, soli nutrient, woodland productivity and species diversity were the highest in the spruce-fir mixed forest, and the indices of soil moisture were the highest in the spruce-fir near-pristine forest. The stability of three forest communities was in order of natural spruce-fir mixed forest > spruce-fir near pristine forest > polar-birch secondary forest.

Cell-cycle synchronisation of bloodstream forms of Trypanosoma brucei using Vybrant DyeCycle Violet-based sorting.

PubMed

Kabani, Sarah; Waterfall, Martin; Matthews, Keith R

2010-01-01

Studies on the cell-cycle of Trypanosoma brucei have revealed several unusual characteristics that differ from the model eukaryotic organisms. However, the inability to isolate homogenous populations of parasites in distinct cell-cycle stages has limited the analysis of trypanosome cell division and complicated the understanding of mutant phenotypes with possible impact on cell-cycle related events. Although hydroxyurea-induced cell-cycle arrest in procyclic and bloodstream forms has been applied recently with success, such block-release protocols can complicate the analysis of cell-cycle regulated events and have the potential to disrupt important cell-cycle checkpoints. An alternative approach based on flow cytometry of parasites stained with Vybrant DyeCycle Orange circumvents this problem, but is restricted to procyclic form parasites. Here, we apply Vybrant Dyecycle Violet staining coupled with flow cytometry to effectively select different cell-cycle stages of bloodstream form trypanosomes. Moreover, the sorted parasites remain viable, although synchrony is rapidly lost. This method enables cell-cycle enrichment of populations of trypanosomes in their mammal infective stage, particularly at the G1 phase.

Cell-cycle synchronisation of bloodstream forms of Trypanosoma brucei using Vybrant DyeCycle Violet-based sorting

PubMed Central

Kabani, Sarah; Waterfall, Martin; Matthews, Keith R.

2010-01-01

Studies on the cell-cycle of Trypanosoma brucei have revealed several unusual characteristics that differ from the model eukaryotic organisms. However, the inability to isolate homogenous populations of parasites in distinct cell-cycle stages has limited the analysis of trypanosome cell division and complicated the understanding of mutant phenotypes with possible impact on cell-cycle related events. Although hydroxyurea-induced cell-cycle arrest in procyclic and bloodstream forms has been applied recently with success, such block-release protocols can complicate the analysis of cell-cycle regulated events and have the potential to disrupt important cell-cycle checkpoints. An alternative approach based on flow cytometry of parasites stained with Vybrant DyeCycle Orange circumvents this problem, but is restricted to procyclic form parasites. Here, we apply Vybrant Dyecycle Violet staining coupled with flow cytometry to effectively select different cell-cycle stages of bloodstream form trypanosomes. Moreover, the sorted parasites remain viable, although synchrony is rapidly lost. This method enables cell-cycle enrichment of populations of trypanosomes in their mammal infective stage, particularly at the G1 phase. PMID:19729042

Influence of the Size of Cohorts in Adaptive Design for Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models: An Evaluation by Simulation for a Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for a Biomarker in Oncology

PubMed Central

Lestini, Giulia; Dumont, Cyrielle; Mentré, France

2015-01-01

Purpose In this study we aimed to evaluate adaptive designs (ADs) by clinical trial simulation for a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model in oncology and to compare them with one-stage designs, i.e. when no adaptation is performed, using wrong prior parameters. Methods We evaluated two one-stage designs, ξ0 and ξ*, optimised for prior and true population parameters, Ψ0 and Ψ*, and several ADs (two-, three- and five-stage). All designs had 50 patients. For ADs, the first cohort design was ξ0. The next cohort design was optimised using prior information updated from the previous cohort. Optimal design was based on the determinant of the Fisher information matrix using PFIM. Design evaluation was performed by clinical trial simulations using data simulated from Ψ*. Results Estimation results of two-stage ADs and ξ* were close and much better than those obtained with ξ0. The balanced two-stage AD performed better than two-stage ADs with different cohort sizes. Three-and five-stage ADs were better than two-stage with small first cohort, but not better than the balanced two-stage design. Conclusions Two-stage ADs are useful when prior parameters are unreliable. In case of small first cohort, more adaptations are needed but these designs are complex to implement. PMID:26123680

Influence of the Size of Cohorts in Adaptive Design for Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models: An Evaluation by Simulation for a Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for a Biomarker in Oncology.

PubMed

Lestini, Giulia; Dumont, Cyrielle; Mentré, France

2015-10-01

In this study we aimed to evaluate adaptive designs (ADs) by clinical trial simulation for a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model in oncology and to compare them with one-stage designs, i.e., when no adaptation is performed, using wrong prior parameters. We evaluated two one-stage designs, ξ0 and ξ*, optimised for prior and true population parameters, Ψ0 and Ψ*, and several ADs (two-, three- and five-stage). All designs had 50 patients. For ADs, the first cohort design was ξ0. The next cohort design was optimised using prior information updated from the previous cohort. Optimal design was based on the determinant of the Fisher information matrix using PFIM. Design evaluation was performed by clinical trial simulations using data simulated from Ψ*. Estimation results of two-stage ADs and ξ * were close and much better than those obtained with ξ 0. The balanced two-stage AD performed better than two-stage ADs with different cohort sizes. Three- and five-stage ADs were better than two-stage with small first cohort, but not better than the balanced two-stage design. Two-stage ADs are useful when prior parameters are unreliable. In case of small first cohort, more adaptations are needed but these designs are complex to implement.

Behavioral and Physiological Changes during Benthic-Pelagic Transition in the Harmful Alga, Heterosigma akashiwo: Potential for Rapid Bloom Formation

PubMed Central

Tobin, Elizabeth D.; Grünbaum, Daniel; Patterson, Johnathan; Cattolico, Rose Ann

2013-01-01

Many species of harmful algae transition between a motile, vegetative stage in the water column and a non-motile, resting stage in the sediments. Physiological and behavioral traits expressed during benthic-pelagic transition potentially regulate the timing, location and persistence of blooms. The roles of key physiological and behavioral traits involved in resting cell emergence and bloom formation were examined in two geographically distinct strains of the harmful alga, Heterosigma akashiwo. Physiological measures of cell viability, division and population growth, and cell fatty acid content were made using flow cytometry and gas chromatography – mass spectrometry techniques as cells transitioned between the benthic resting stage and the vegetative pelagic stage. Video-based tracking was used to quantify cell-level swimming behaviors. Data show increased temperature and light triggered rapid emergence from the resting stage and initiated cell swimming. Algal strains varied in important physiological and behavioral traits, including survivorship during life-stage transitions, population growth rates and swimming velocities. Collectively, these traits function as “population growth strategies” that can influence bloom formation. Many resting cells regained the up-swimming capacity necessary to cross an environmentally relevant halocline and the ability to aggregate in near-surface waters within hours after vegetative growth supporting conditions were restored. Using a heuristic model, we illustrate how strain-specific population growth strategies can govern the timescales over which H. akashiwo blooms form. Our findings highlight the need for identification and quantification of strain-specific physiological and behavioral traits to improve mechanistic understanding of bloom formation and successful bloom prediction. PMID:24124586

Policy evaluation in diabetes prevention and treatment using a population-based macro simulation model: the MICADO model.

PubMed

van der Heijden, A A W A; Feenstra, T L; Hoogenveen, R T; Niessen, L W; de Bruijne, M C; Dekker, J M; Baan, C A; Nijpels, G

2015-12-01

To test a simulation model, the MICADO model, for estimating the long-term effects of interventions in people with and without diabetes. The MICADO model includes micro- and macrovascular diseases in relation to their risk factors. The strengths of this model are its population scope and the possibility to assess parameter uncertainty using probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Outcomes include incidence and prevalence of complications, quality of life, costs and cost-effectiveness. We externally validated MICADO's estimates of micro- and macrovascular complications in a Dutch cohort with diabetes (n = 498,400) by comparing these estimates with national and international empirical data. For the annual number of people undergoing amputations, MICADO's estimate was 592 (95% interquantile range 291-842), which compared well with the registered number of people with diabetes-related amputations in the Netherlands (728). The incidence of end-stage renal disease estimated using the MICADO model was 247 people (95% interquartile range 120-363), which was also similar to the registered incidence in the Netherlands (277 people). MICADO performed well in the validation of macrovascular outcomes of population-based cohorts, while it had more difficulty in reflecting a highly selected trial population. Validation by comparison with independent empirical data showed that the MICADO model simulates the natural course of diabetes and its micro- and macrovascular complications well. As a population-based model, MICADO can be applied for projections as well as scenario analyses to evaluate the long-term (cost-)effectiveness of population-level interventions targeting diabetes and its complications in the Netherlands or similar countries. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Systematic analysis of transcription start sites in avian development.

PubMed

Lizio, Marina; Deviatiiarov, Ruslan; Nagai, Hiroki; Galan, Laura; Arner, Erik; Itoh, Masayoshi; Lassmann, Timo; Kasukawa, Takeya; Hasegawa, Akira; Ros, Marian A; Hayashizaki, Yoshihide; Carninci, Piero; Forrest, Alistair R R; Kawaji, Hideya; Gusev, Oleg; Sheng, Guojun

2017-09-01

Cap Analysis of Gene Expression (CAGE) in combination with single-molecule sequencing technology allows precision mapping of transcription start sites (TSSs) and genome-wide capture of promoter activities in differentiated and steady state cell populations. Much less is known about whether TSS profiling can characterize diverse and non-steady state cell populations, such as the approximately 400 transitory and heterogeneous cell types that arise during ontogeny of vertebrate animals. To gain such insight, we used the chick model and performed CAGE-based TSS analysis on embryonic samples covering the full 3-week developmental period. In total, 31,863 robust TSS peaks (>1 tag per million [TPM]) were mapped to the latest chicken genome assembly, of which 34% to 46% were active in any given developmental stage. ZENBU, a web-based, open-source platform, was used for interactive data exploration. TSSs of genes critical for lineage differentiation could be precisely mapped and their activities tracked throughout development, suggesting that non-steady state and heterogeneous cell populations are amenable to CAGE-based transcriptional analysis. Our study also uncovered a large set of extremely stable housekeeping TSSs and many novel stage-specific ones. We furthermore demonstrated that TSS mapping could expedite motif-based promoter analysis for regulatory modules associated with stage-specific and housekeeping genes. Finally, using Brachyury as an example, we provide evidence that precise TSS mapping in combination with Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR)-on technology enables us, for the first time, to efficiently target endogenous avian genes for transcriptional activation. Taken together, our results represent the first report of genome-wide TSS mapping in birds and the first systematic developmental TSS analysis in any amniote species (birds and mammals). By facilitating promoter-based molecular analysis and genetic manipulation, our work also underscores the value of avian models in unravelling the complex regulatory mechanism of cell lineage specification during amniote development.

Lifetime Incidence of CKD Stages 3–5 in the United States

PubMed Central

Grams, Morgan E.; Chow, Eric K.H.; Segev, Dorry L.; Coresh, Josef

2013-01-01

Background Lifetime risk estimates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) can motivate preventative behaviors at the individual level and forecast disease burden and health care utilization at the population level. Study Design Markov Monte Carlo model simulation study. Setting & Population Current U.S. black and white population. Model, Perspective, & Timeframe Markov models simulating kidney disease development, using an individual perspective and lifetime horizon. Outcomes Age-, sex- and race-specific residual lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+ (eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73m2), 3b+ (eGFR<45 ml/min/1.73 m2), and 4+ (eGFR<30 ml/min/1.73m2), and end stage renal disease (ESRD). Measurements State transition probabilities of developing CKD and of dying prior to its development were modeled using: 1) mortality rates from National Vital Statistics Report, 2) mortality risk estimates from a 2-million person meta-analysis, and 3) CKD prevalence from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Incidence, prevalence, and mortality related to ESRD were supplied by the US Renal Disease System. Results At birth, the overall lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+, 3b+, 4+, and ESRD were 59.1%, 33.6%, 11.5%, and 3.6%, respectively. Women experienced greater CKD risk yet lower ESRD risk than men; blacks of both sexes had markedly higher CKD stage 4+ and ESRD risk (lifetime risks for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively: 53.6%, 64.9%, 51.8%, and 63.6% [CKD stage 3a+]; 29.0%, 36.7%, 33.7%, and 40.2% [CKD stage 3b+]; 9.3%, 11.4%, 15.8%, and 18.5% [CKD stage 4+]; and 3.3%, 2.2%, 8.5%, and 7.8% [ESRD]). Risk of CKD increased with age, with approximately one-half of CKD stage 3a+ cases developing after 70 years of age. Limitations CKD incidence estimates were modeled from prevalence in the U.S. population. Conclusions In the U.S., the lifetime risk of developing CKD stage 3a+ is high, underscoring the importance of primary prevention and effective therapy to reduce CKD-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:23566637

Improving Targets for the Prevention of Drug Use Disorders: Sociodemographic Predictors of Transitions Across Drug Use Stages in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication

PubMed Central

Swendsen, Joel; Anthony, James C.; Conway, Kevin P.; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dierker, Lisa; Glantz, Meyer; He, Jianping; Kalaydjian, Amanda; Kessler, Ronald C.; Sampson, Nancy; Merikangas, Kathleen R.

2010-01-01

Objectives Models of drug use etiology and prevention require precise information concerning the expression of population-based risk factors across the continuum of drug use. However, the majority of previous epidemiologic research on this topic has not addressed transitions between specific drug stages. The present investigation examined the sociodemographic predictors of progression across six stages of drug use in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a nationally representative household survey of the U.S. population conducted between February, 2001 and April, 2003. Methods Lifetime history of opportunity to use illicit substances, initial drug use, and DSM-IV drug use disorders were collected using in-person structured diagnostic interviews. Results The median age of first opportunity to use drugs as well as drug use, abuse and dependence each occurred prior to age 20, while the median remission from abuse and dependence occurred at 26 and 30 years, respectively. Most sociodemographic variables, in particular sex and ethnicity, demonstrated highly differential associations with transitions depending on the stage examined. Conclusions The findings may partially explain the effectiveness of strategies designed to reduce drug use, abuse and dependence, and indicate that increased correspondence is needed between available epidemiologic data and existing models of etiology or prevention. PMID:18926848

Optimal Therapy Scheduling Based on a Pair of Collaterally Sensitive Drugs.

PubMed

Yoon, Nara; Vander Velde, Robert; Marusyk, Andriy; Scott, Jacob G

2018-05-07

Despite major strides in the treatment of cancer, the development of drug resistance remains a major hurdle. One strategy which has been proposed to address this is the sequential application of drug therapies where resistance to one drug induces sensitivity to another drug, a concept called collateral sensitivity. The optimal timing of drug switching in these situations, however, remains unknown. To study this, we developed a dynamical model of sequential therapy on heterogeneous tumors comprised of resistant and sensitive cells. A pair of drugs (DrugA, DrugB) are utilized and are periodically switched during therapy. Assuming resistant cells to one drug are collaterally sensitive to the opposing drug, we classified cancer cells into two groups, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], each of which is a subpopulation of cells resistant to the indicated drug and concurrently sensitive to the other, and we subsequently explored the resulting population dynamics. Specifically, based on a system of ordinary differential equations for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], we determined that the optimal treatment strategy consists of two stages: an initial stage in which a chosen effective drug is utilized until a specific time point, T, and a second stage in which drugs are switched repeatedly, during which each drug is used for a relative duration (i.e., [Formula: see text]-long for DrugA and [Formula: see text]-long for DrugB with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]). We prove that the optimal duration of the initial stage, in which the first drug is administered, T, is shorter than the period in which it remains effective in decreasing the total population, contrary to current clinical intuition. We further analyzed the relationship between population makeup, [Formula: see text], and the effect of each drug. We determine a critical ratio, which we term [Formula: see text], at which the two drugs are equally effective. As the first stage of the optimal strategy is applied, [Formula: see text] changes monotonically to [Formula: see text] and then, during the second stage, remains at [Formula: see text] thereafter. Beyond our analytic results, we explored an individual-based stochastic model and presented the distribution of extinction times for the classes of solutions found. Taken together, our results suggest opportunities to improve therapy scheduling in clinical oncology.

THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVIY OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE TO REPRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in using population models in environmental assessments. Matrix population models represent a valuable tool for extrapolating from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to effects on finite populati...

Economic Feasibility of Wireless Sensor Network-Based Service Provision in a Duopoly Setting with a Monopolist Operator.

PubMed

Sanchis-Cano, Angel; Romero, Julián; Sacoto-Cabrera, Erwin J; Guijarro, Luis

2017-11-25

We analyze the feasibility of providing Wireless Sensor Network-data-based services in an Internet of Things scenario from an economical point of view. The scenario has two competing service providers with their own private sensor networks, a network operator and final users. The scenario is analyzed as two games using game theory. In the first game, sensors decide to subscribe or not to the network operator to upload the collected sensing-data, based on a utility function related to the mean service time and the price charged by the operator. In the second game, users decide to subscribe or not to the sensor-data-based service of the service providers based on a Logit discrete choice model related to the quality of the data collected and the subscription price. The sinks and users subscription stages are analyzed using population games and discrete choice models, while network operator and service providers pricing stages are analyzed using optimization and Nash equilibrium concepts respectively. The model is shown feasible from an economic point of view for all the actors if there are enough interested final users and opens the possibility of developing more efficient models with different types of services.

Life histories and conservation of long-lived reptiles, an illustration with the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs-Gonzalez, Venetia; Bonefant, Christophe; Basille, Mathieu; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Beauchamp, Jeff; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Successful species conservation is dependent on adequate estimates of population dynamics, but age-specific demographics are generally lacking for many long-lived iteroparous species such as large reptiles. Accurate demographic information allows estimation of population growth rate, as well as projection of future population sizes and quantitative analyses of fitness trade-offs involved in the evolution of life-history strategies.Here, a long-term capture–recapture study was conducted from 1978 to 2014 on the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida. Over the study period, 7,427 hatchlings were marked and 380 individuals were recaptured for as many as 25 years. We estimated survival to be strongly age dependent with hatchlings having the lowest survival rates (16%) but increasing to nearly 90% at adulthood based on mark–recapture models. More than 5% of the female population were predicted to be reproductive by age 8 years; the age-specific proportion of reproductive females steadily increased until age 18 when more than 95% of females were predicted to be reproductive. Population growth rate, estimated from a Leslie–Lefkovitch stage-class model, showed a positive annual growth rate of 4% over the study period.Using a prospective sensitivity analysis, we revealed that the adult stage, as expected, was the most critical stage for population growth rate; however, the survival of younger crocodiles before they became reproductive also had a surprisingly high elasticity. We found that variation in age-specific fecundity has very limited impact on population growth rate in American crocodiles.We used a comparative approach to show that the original life-history strategy of American crocodiles is actually shared by other large, long-lived reptiles: while adult survival rates always have a large impact on population growth, this decreases with declining increasing growth rates, in favour of a higher elasticity of the juvenile stage.Crocodiles, as a long-lived and highly fecund species, deviate from the usual association of life histories of “slow” species. Current management practices are focused on nests and hatchling survival; however, protection efforts that extend to juvenile crocodiles would be most effective for conservation of the species, especially in an ever-developing landscape.

Predicting infant cortical surface development using a 4D varifold-based learning framework and local topography-based shape morphing.

PubMed

Rekik, Islem; Li, Gang; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang

2016-02-01

Longitudinal neuroimaging analysis methods have remarkably advanced our understanding of early postnatal brain development. However, learning predictive models to trace forth the evolution trajectories of both normal and abnormal cortical shapes remains broadly absent. To fill this critical gap, we pioneered the first prediction model for longitudinal developing cortical surfaces in infants using a spatiotemporal current-based learning framework solely from the baseline cortical surface. In this paper, we detail this prediction model and even further improve its performance by introducing two key variants. First, we use the varifold metric to overcome the limitations of the current metric for surface registration that was used in our preliminary study. We also extend the conventional varifold-based surface registration model for pairwise registration to a spatiotemporal surface regression model. Second, we propose a morphing process of the baseline surface using its topographic attributes such as normal direction and principal curvature sign. Specifically, our method learns from longitudinal data both the geometric (vertices positions) and dynamic (temporal evolution trajectories) features of the infant cortical surface, comprising a training stage and a prediction stage. In the training stage, we use the proposed varifold-based shape regression model to estimate geodesic cortical shape evolution trajectories for each training subject. We then build an empirical mean spatiotemporal surface atlas. In the prediction stage, given an infant, we select the best learnt features from training subjects to simultaneously predict the cortical surface shapes at all later timepoints, based on similarity metrics between this baseline surface and the learnt baseline population average surface atlas. We used a leave-one-out cross validation method to predict the inner cortical surface shape at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age from the baseline cortical surface shape at birth. Our method attained a higher prediction accuracy and better captured the spatiotemporal dynamic change of the highly folded cortical surface than the previous proposed prediction method. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population-based survival-cure analysis of ER-negative breast cancer.

PubMed

Huang, Lan; Johnson, Karen A; Mariotto, Angela B; Dignam, James J; Feuer, Eric J

2010-08-01

This study investigated the trends over time in age and stage specific population-based survival of estrogen receptor negative (ER-) breast cancer patients by examining the fraction of cured patients and the median survival time for uncured patients. Cause-specific survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for cases diagnosed during 1992-1998 were used in mixed survival cure models to evaluate the cure fraction and the extension in survival for uncured patients. Survival trends were compared with adjuvant chemotherapy data available from an overlapping patterns-of-care study. For stage II N+ disease, the largest increase in cure fraction was 44-60% (P = 0.0257) for women aged >or=70 in contrast to a 7-8% point increase for women aged <50 or 50-69 (P = 0.056 and 0.038, respectively). For women with stage III disease, the increases in the cure fraction were not statistically significant, although women aged 50-69 had a 10% point increase (P = 0.103). Increases in cure fraction correspond with increases in the use of adjuvant chemotherapy, particularly for the oldest age group. In this article, for the first time, we estimate the cure fraction for ER- patients. We notice that at age >o5r=70, the accelerated increase in cure fraction from 1992 to 1998 for women with stage II N+ compared with stage III suggests a selective benefit for chemotherapy in the lower stage group.

SEM with Missing Data and Unknown Population Distributions Using Two-Stage ML: Theory and Its Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Lu, Laura

2008-01-01

This article provides the theory and application of the 2-stage maximum likelihood (ML) procedure for structural equation modeling (SEM) with missing data. The validity of this procedure does not require the assumption of a normally distributed population. When the population is normally distributed and all missing data are missing at random…

Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: A case study from the Galápagos Islands

PubMed Central

Miller, Brian W.; Breckheimer, Ian; McCleary, Amy L.; Guzmán-Ramirez, Liza; Caplow, Susan C.; Jones-Smith, Jessica C.; Walsh, Stephen J.

2010-01-01

Agent Based Models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population-environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews, and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands – tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population-environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps. PMID:20539752

Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: A case study from the Galápagos Islands.

PubMed

Miller, Brian W; Breckheimer, Ian; McCleary, Amy L; Guzmán-Ramirez, Liza; Caplow, Susan C; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Walsh, Stephen J

2010-05-01

Agent Based Models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population-environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews, and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands - tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population-environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps.

An adaptive modeling and simulation environment for combined-cycle data reconciliation and degradation estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tsungpo

Performance engineers face the major challenge in modeling and simulation for the after-market power system due to system degradation and measurement errors. Currently, the majority in power generation industries utilizes the deterministic data matching method to calibrate the model and cascade system degradation, which causes significant calibration uncertainty and also the risk of providing performance guarantees. In this research work, a maximum-likelihood based simultaneous data reconciliation and model calibration (SDRMC) is used for power system modeling and simulation. By replacing the current deterministic data matching with SDRMC one can reduce the calibration uncertainty and mitigate the error propagation to the performance simulation. A modeling and simulation environment for a complex power system with certain degradation has been developed. In this environment multiple data sets are imported when carrying out simultaneous data reconciliation and model calibration. Calibration uncertainties are estimated through error analyses and populated to performance simulation by using principle of error propagation. System degradation is then quantified by performance comparison between the calibrated model and its expected new & clean status. To mitigate smearing effects caused by gross errors, gross error detection (GED) is carried out in two stages. The first stage is a screening stage, in which serious gross errors are eliminated in advance. The GED techniques used in the screening stage are based on multivariate data analysis (MDA), including multivariate data visualization and principal component analysis (PCA). Subtle gross errors are treated at the second stage, in which the serial bias compensation or robust M-estimator is engaged. To achieve a better efficiency in the combined scheme of the least squares based data reconciliation and the GED technique based on hypotheses testing, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is utilized as the optimizer. To reduce the computation time and stabilize the problem solving for a complex power system such as a combined cycle power plant, meta-modeling using the response surface equation (RSE) and system/process decomposition are incorporated with the simultaneous scheme of SDRMC. The goal of this research work is to reduce the calibration uncertainties and, thus, the risks of providing performance guarantees arisen from uncertainties in performance simulation.

Genetic GIScience: Toward a Place-Based Synthesis of the Genome, Exposome, and Behavome

PubMed Central

Jacquez, Geoffrey M.; Sabel, Clive E.; Shi, Chen

2015-01-01

The exposome, defined as the totality of an individual’s exposures over the life course, is a seminal concept in the environmental health sciences. Although inherently geographic, the exposome as yet is unfamiliar to many geographers. This article proposes a place-based synthesis, genetic geographic information science (Genetic GISc) that is founded on the exposome, genome+ and behavome. It provides an improved understanding of human health in relation to biology (the genome+), environmental exposures (the exposome), and their social, societal and behavioral determinants (the behavome). Genetic GISc poses three key needs: First, a mathematical foundation for emergent theory; Second, process-based models that bridge biological and geographic scales; Third, biologically plausible estimates of space-time disease lags. Compartmental models are a possible solution; this article develops two models using pancreatic cancer as an exemplar. The first models carcinogenesis based on the cascade of mutations and cellular changes that lead to metastatic cancer. The second models cancer stages by diagnostic criteria. These provide empirical estimates of the distribution of latencies in cellular states and disease stages, and maps of the burden of yet to be diagnosed disease. This approach links our emerging knowledge of genomics to cancer progression at the cellular level, to individuals and their cancer stage at diagnosis, to geographic distributions of cancer in extant populations. These methodological developments and exemplar provide the basis for a new synthesis in health geography: genetic geographic information science. PMID:26339073

Dynamics of a Stochastic Predator-Prey Model with Stage Structure for Predator and Holling Type II Functional Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop and study a stochastic predator-prey model with stage structure for predator and Holling type II functional response. First of all, by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions to the model. Then, we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the predator populations in two cases, that is, the first case is that the prey population survival and the predator populations extinction; the second case is that all the prey and predator populations extinction. The existence of a stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the analytical results.

Dynamics of a Stochastic Predator-Prey Model with Stage Structure for Predator and Holling Type II Functional Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-06-01

In this paper, we develop and study a stochastic predator-prey model with stage structure for predator and Holling type II functional response. First of all, by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions to the model. Then, we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the predator populations in two cases, that is, the first case is that the prey population survival and the predator populations extinction; the second case is that all the prey and predator populations extinction. The existence of a stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the analytical results.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

PubMed

Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

2013-11-01

1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. 0.1°C per year). The Euler-Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in rm when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on rm may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time-scales and under slow warming regimes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

Cancer of the ovary, fallopian tube, and peritoneum: a population-based comparison of the prognostic factors and outcomes.

PubMed

Rottmann, Miriam; Burges, A; Mahner, S; Anthuber, C; Beck, T; Grab, D; Schnelzer, A; Kiechle, M; Mayr, D; Pölcher, M; Schubert-Fritschle, G; Engel, J

2017-09-01

The objective was to compare the prognostic factors and outcomes among primary ovarian cancer (OC), fallopian tube cancer (FC), and peritoneal cancer (PC) patients in a population-based setting. We analysed 5399 OC, 327 FC, and 416 PC patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2014 in the catchment area of the Munich Cancer Registry (meanwhile 4.8 million inhabitants). Tumour site differences were examined by comparing prognostic factors, treatments, the time to progression, and survival. The effect of the tumour site was additionally analysed by a Cox regression model. The median age at diagnosis, histology, and FIGO stage significantly differed among the tumour sites (p < 0.001); PC patients were older, more often diagnosed with a serous subtype, and in FIGO stage III or IV. The time to progression and survival significantly differed among the tumour sites. When stratified by FIGO stage, the differences in time to progression disappeared, and the differences in survival considerably weakened. The differences in the multivariate survival analysis showed an almost identical outcome in PC patients (HR 1.07 [0.91-1.25]) and an improved survival of FC patients (HR 0.63 [0.49-0.81]) compared to that of OC patients. The comparison of OC, FC, and PC patients in this large-scale population-based study showed differences in the prognostic factors. These differences primarily account for the inferior outcome of PC patients, and for the improved survival of FC compared to OC patients.

Social Marketing, Stages of Change, and Public Health Smoking Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diehr, Paula; Hannon, Peggy; Pizacani, Barbara; Forehand, Mark; Meischke, Hendrika; Curry, Susan; Martin, Diane P.; Weaver, Marcia R.; Harris, Jeffrey

2011-01-01

As a "thought experiment," the authors used a modified stages of change model for smoking to define homogeneous segments within various hypothetical populations. The authors then estimated the population effect of public health interventions that targeted the different segments. Under most assumptions, interventions that emphasized primary and…

Effects of the stages of change model-based education and motivational interview on exercise behavior in diabetic women.

PubMed

Sekerci, Yasemin Gümüs; Kitis, Yeter

2018-05-08

In this study, we examined the effects of exercise education and a motivational interview program, based on the stages of change model (SCM), on stage of change, using cognitive and behavioral methods, perceived benefits and barriers and self-confidence in Turkish women with diabetes. This intervention study was carried out in 2015 on 55 women selected from a family health centers' population. An exercise guide was prepared based on the SCM for the intervention group. The intervention group was followed seven times at 1-month intervals via home visits, and exercise education and the motivational interview program were conducted to identify changes in behavior. The control group received no intervention. Data were collected from both groups using a personal description form, Exercise Stages of Change Scale, Exercise Processes of Change Scale, Exercise Decisional Balance Scale, and Exercise Self-Efficacy Scale. After the exercise program, each group was re-subjected to the same scales. We used a chi-square test and independent and paired sample t-tests to analyze the data. The stages of change, using cognitive and behavioral methods, perceived benefits and self-confidence for exercise in the intervention group significantly improved compared with that in the control group (p < .05). In the intervention group, 81.5% of the participants started exercising. The exercise education and motivational interview program based on SCM positively affected stages of change, using cognitive and behavioral methods, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, and self-confidence for exercise behavior in women with diabetes. We conclude that the education and motivational interview program based on SCM are effective in promoting exercise habit.

Population and life-stage-specific effects of two herbicide formulations on the aquatic development of European common frogs (Rana temporaria).

PubMed

Wagner, Norman; Veith, Michael; Lötters, Stefan; Viertel, Bruno

2017-01-01

Environmental contamination is suggested to contribute to amphibian population declines. However, the effects of a contaminant on a particular amphibian species can differ among populations. The authors investigated the toxic effects of 2 herbicide formulations on different populations and on representative developmental stages of the European common frog (Rana temporaria). Larvae from forest populations were more sensitive to a commonly used glyphosate-based herbicide compared with individuals from agrarian land. Median lethal concentrations correlated with measured glyphosate levels in the breeding ponds, which may be a sign of evolved tolerances. The reverse result was observed for a less commonly used cycloxydim-based herbicide. Effects of the glyphosate-based herbicide were stronger for earlier larval stages compared with later larval stages. Hence, applications in early spring (when early larvae are present in breeding ponds) pose greater risk concerning acute toxic effects on R. temporaria. With regard to late larval stages, short exposure (96 h) of prometamorphic larvae prolonged time to metamorphosis, but only at the highest test concentration that did not significantly induce mortality. This could be due to impairment of the thyroid axis. Notably, nearly all test concentrations of the 2 herbicides provoked growth retardation. Further research on how evolved or induced tolerances are acquired, actual contamination levels of amphibian habitats, and potential endocrine effects of glyphosate-based herbicides is necessary. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:190-200. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Association of cutaneous melanoma incidence with area-based socioeconomic indicators-United States, 2004-2006.

PubMed

Singh, Simple D; Ajani, Umed A; Johnson, Christopher J; Roland, Katherine B; Eide, Melody; Jemal, Ahmedin; Negoita, Serban; Bayakly, Rana A; Ekwueme, Donatus U

2011-11-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) has been associated with melanoma incidence and outcomes. Examination of the relationship between melanoma and SES at the national level in the United States is limited. Expanding knowledge of this association is needed to improve early detection and eliminate disparities. We sought to provide a detailed description of cutaneous melanoma incidence and stage of disease in relationship to area-based socioeconomic measures including poverty level, education, income, and unemployment in the United States. Invasive cutaneous melanoma data reported by 44 population-based central cancer registries for 2004 to 2006 were merged with county-level SES estimates from the US Census Bureau. Age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated by gender, race/ethnicity, poverty, education, income, unemployment, and metro/urban/rural status using software. Poisson multilevel mixed models were fitted, and incidence density ratios were calculated by stage for area-based SES measures, controlling for age, gender, and state random effects. Counties with lower poverty, higher education, higher income, and lower unemployment had higher age-adjusted melanoma incidence rates for both early and late stage. In multivariate models, SES effects persisted for early-stage but not late-stage melanoma incidence. Individual-level measures of SES were unavailable, and estimates were based on county-level SES measures. Our findings show that melanoma incidence in the United States is associated with aggregate county-level measures of high SES. Analyses using finer-level SES measures, such as individual or census tract level, are needed to provide more precise estimates of these associations. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R. D.; de Boer, Willem F.; Stillman, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R D; de Boer, Willem F; Stillman, Richard A

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.

Inferential and forward projection modeling to evaluate options for controlling invasive mammals on islands.

PubMed

Anderson, D P; McMurtrie, P; Edge, K-A; Baxter, P W J; Byrom, A E

2016-12-01

Successful pest-mammal eradications from remote islands have resulted in important biodiversity benefits. Near-shore islands can also serve as refuges for native biota but require ongoing effort to maintain low-pest or pest-free status. Three management options are available in the presence of reinvasion risk: (1) control-to-zero density, in which immigration may occur but reinvaders are removed; (2) sustained population suppression (to relatively low numbers); or (3) no action. Biodiversity benefits can result from options one and two. The management challenge is to make evidence-based decisions on the selection of an appropriate objective and to identify a financially feasible control strategy that has a high probability of success. This requires understanding the pest species population dynamics and how it will respond to a range of potential management strategies, each with an associated financial cost. We developed a two-stage modeling approach that consisted of (1) Bayesian inferential modeling to estimate parameters for a model of pest population dynamics and control, and (2) a forward projection model to simulate a range of plausible management scenarios and quantify the probability of obtaining zero density within four years. We applied the model to an ongoing, six-year trapping program to control stoats (Mustela erminea) on Resolution Island, New Zealand. Zero density has not yet been achieved. Results demonstrate that management objectives were impeded by a combination of a highly fecund population, insufficient trap attractiveness, and a substantial proportion of the population that did not enter traps. Immigration is known to occur because the founding population arrived on the island by swimming from the mainland. However, immigration rate during this study was indistinguishable from zero. The forward projection modeling showed that control-to-zero density was feasible but required greater than a two-fold budget increase to intensify the trapping rate relative to population growth. The two-stage modeling provides the foundation for a management program in which broad-scale trials of additional trapping effort or improved trap lures would test model predictions and increase our understanding of system dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Cognitive behavioral interventions for alcohol and drug use disorders: Through the stage model and back again.

PubMed

Carroll, Kathleen M; Kiluk, Brian D

2017-12-01

Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) approaches have among the highest level of empirical support for the treatment of drug and alcohol use disorders. As Psychology of Addictive Behaviors marks its 30th anniversary, we review the evolution of CBT for the addictions through the lens of the Stage Model of Behavioral Therapies Development. The large evidence base from Stage II randomized clinical trials indicates a modest effect size with evidence of relatively durable effects, but limited diffusion in clinical practice, as is the case for most empirically validated approaches for mental health and addictive disorders. Technology may provide a means for CBT interventions to circumvent the "implementation cliff" in Stages III-V by offering a flexible, low-cost, standardized means of disseminating CBT in a range of novel settings and populations. Moreover, returning to Stage I to reconnect clinical applications of CBT to recent developments in cognitive science and neuroscience holds great promise for accelerating understanding of mechanisms of action. It is critical that CBT not be considered as a static intervention, but rather 1 that constantly evolves and is refined through the stage model until the field achieves a maximally powerful intervention that addresses core features of the addictions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

Remnant living cells that escape cell loss in late-stage tumors exhibit cancer stem cell-like characteristics

PubMed Central

Chen, Y-L; Wang, S-Y; Liu, R-S; Wang, H-E; Chen, J-C; Chiou, S-H; Chang, C A; Lin, L-T; Tan, D T W; Lee, Y-J

2012-01-01

A balance between cell proliferation and cell loss is essential for tumor progression. Although up to 90% of cells are lost in late-stage carcinomas, the progression and characteristics of remnant living cells in tumor mass are unclear. Here we used molecular imaging to track the progression of living cells in a syngeneic tumor model, and ex vivo investigated the properties of this population at late-stage tumor. The piggyBac transposon system was used to stably introduce the dual reporter genes, including monomeric red fluorescent protein (mRFP) and herpes simplex virus type-1 thymidine kinase (HSV1-tk) genes for fluorescence-based and radionuclide-based imaging of tumor growth in small animals, respectively. Iodine-123-labeled 5-iodo-2′-fluoro-1-beta-𝒟-arabinofuranosyluracil was used as a radiotracer for HSV1-tk gene expression in tumors. The fluorescence- and radionuclide-based imaging using the single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography revealed that the number of living cells reached the maximum at 1 week after implantation of 4T1 tumors, and gradually decreased and clustered near the side of the body until 4 weeks accompanied by enlargement of tumor mass. The remnant living cells at late-stage tumor were isolated and investigated ex vivo. The results showed that these living cells could form mammospheres and express cancer stem cell (CSC)-related biomarkers, including octamer-binding transcription factor 4, SRY (sex-determining region Y)-box 2, and CD133 genes compared with those cultured in vitro. Furthermore, this HSV1-tk-expressing CSC-like population was sensitive to ganciclovir applied for the suicide therapy. Taken together, the current data suggested that cells escaping from cell loss in late-stage tumors exhibit CSC-like characteristics, and HSV1-tk may be considered a theranostic agent for targeting this population in vivo. PMID:23034334

Agent-based model to rural urban migration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silveira, Jaylson J.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2006-05-01

In this paper, we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomenon as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising-like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income.

Comparison of Clinicopathologic Features and Survival of Histopathologically Amelanotic and Pigmented Melanomas: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Thomas, Nancy E.; Kricker, Anne; Waxweiler, Weston T.; Dillon, Patrick M.; Busam, Klaus J.; From, Lynn; Groben, Pamela A.; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gruber, Stephen B.; Marrett, Loraine D.; Gallagher, Richard P.; Zanetti, Roberto; Rosso, Stefano; Dwyer, Terence; Venn, Alison; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Orlow, Drs. Irene; Paine, Susan; Ollila, David W.; Reiner, Anne S.; Luo, Li; Hao, Honglin; Frank, Jill S.; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne

2014-01-01

Importance Previous studies have reported that histopathologically amelanotic melanoma is associated with poorer survival than pigmented melanoma; however, small numbers of amelanotic melanomas, selected populations, lack of centralized pathology review, or no adjustment for stage limit interpretation or generalization of results from prior studies. Objective To compare melanoma-specific survival between patients with histopathologically amelanotic and those with pigmented melanoma in a large international population-based study. Design Survival analysis with median follow-up of 7.6 years. Setting The Genes, Environment, and Melanoma study enrolled incident cases of melanoma diagnosed in 1998-2003 from international population-based cancer registries. Participants A total of 2,995 patients with 3,486 invasive primary melanomas centrally scored for histologic pigmentation. Main Outcomes and Measurements Clinicopathologic predictors and melanoma-specific survival of histologically amelanotic and pigmented melanoma were compared using generalized estimating equations and Cox regression models, respectively. Results Eight percent of melanomas (275 of 3,467) were histopathologically amelanotic. Female sex, nodular and unclassified or other histologic subtypes, increased Breslow thickness, presence of mitoses, severe solar elastosis, and lack of a co-existing nevus were independently associated with amelanotic melanoma (each P < .05). Amelanotic melanoma was generally of a higher American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage at diagnosis (P for trend <.001) than pigmented melanoma. Hazard of death from melanoma was higher for amelanotic than pigmented melanoma [hazard ratio (HR), 2.0; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.4-3.0; P< .001], adjusted for age, sex anatomic site, and study design variables; but survival did not differ once AJCC tumor stage was also taken into account, (HR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.5-1.2; P = .36). Conclusions and Relevance At the population level, survival after diagnosis of amelanotic melanoma is poorer than after pigmented melanoma because of its more advanced stage at diagnosis. It is probable that amelanotic melanomas present at more advanced tumor stages because they are difficult to diagnose. The association of amelanotic melanoma with presence of mitoses independently of Breslow thickness and other clinicopathologic characteristics suggests that amelanotic melanomas might also grow faster than pigmented melanomas. New strategies for early diagnosis and investigation of the biology of amelanotic melanoma are warranted. PMID:25162299

Characteristics of patients with missing information on stage: a population-based study of patients diagnosed with colon, lung or breast cancer in England in 2013.

PubMed

Di Girolamo, Chiara; Walters, Sarah; Benitez Majano, Sara; Rachet, Bernard; Coleman, Michel P; Njagi, Edmund Njeru; Morris, Melanie

2018-05-02

Stage is a key predictor of cancer survival. Complete cancer staging is vital for understanding outcomes at population level and monitoring the efficacy of early diagnosis initiatives. Cancer registries usually collect details of the disease extent but staging information may be missing because a stage was never assigned to a patient or because it was not included in cancer registration records. Missing stage information introduce methodological difficulties for analysis and interpretation of results. We describe the associations between missing stage and socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of patients diagnosed with colon, lung or breast cancer in England in 2013. We assess how these associations change when completeness is high, and administrative issues are assumed to be minimal. We estimate the amount of avoidable missing stage data if high levels of completeness reached by some Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs), were achieved nationally. Individual cancer records were retrieved from the National Cancer Registration and linked to the Routes to Diagnosis and Hospital Episode Statistics datasets to obtain additional clinical information. We used multivariable beta binomial regression models to estimate the strength of the association between socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of patients and missing stage and to derive the amount of avoidable missing stage. Multivariable modelling showed that old age was associated with missing stage irrespective of the cancer site and independent of comorbidity score, short-term mortality and patient characteristics. This remained true for patients in the CCGs with high completeness. Applying the results from these CCGs to the whole cohort showed that approximately 70% of missing stage information was potentially avoidable. Missing stage was more frequent in older patients, including those residing in CCGs with high completeness. This disadvantage for older patients was not explained fully by the presence of comorbidity. A substantial gain in completeness could have been achieved if administrative practices were improved to the level of the highest performing areas. Reasons for missing stage information should be carefully assessed before any study, and potential distortions introduced by how missing stage is handled should be considered in order to draw the most correct inference from available statistics.

Risk prediction for chronic kidney disease progression using heterogeneous electronic health record data and time series analysis.

PubMed

Perotte, Adler; Ranganath, Rajesh; Hirsch, Jamie S; Blei, David; Elhadad, Noémie

2015-07-01

As adoption of electronic health records continues to increase, there is an opportunity to incorporate clinical documentation as well as laboratory values and demographics into risk prediction modeling. The authors develop a risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression from stage III to stage IV that includes longitudinal data and features drawn from clinical documentation. The study cohort consisted of 2908 primary-care clinic patients who had at least three visits prior to January 1, 2013 and developed CKD stage III during their documented history. Development and validation cohorts were randomly selected from this cohort and the study datasets included longitudinal inpatient and outpatient data from these populations. Time series analysis (Kalman filter) and survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards) were combined to produce a range of risk models. These models were evaluated using concordance, a discriminatory statistic. A risk model incorporating longitudinal data on clinical documentation and laboratory test results (concordance 0.849) predicts progression from state III CKD to stage IV CKD more accurately when compared to a similar model without laboratory test results (concordance 0.733, P<.001), a model that only considers the most recent laboratory test results (concordance 0.819, P < .031) and a model based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (concordance 0.779, P < .001). A risk prediction model that takes longitudinal laboratory test results and clinical documentation into consideration can predict CKD progression from stage III to stage IV more accurately than three models that do not take all of these variables into consideration. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

PROJECTED POPULATION-LEVEL EFFECTS OF THIOBENCARB EXPOSURE ON THE MYSID, AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA, AND EXTINCTION PROBABILITY IN A CONCENTRATION-DECAY EXPOSURE SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Population-level effects of the mysid, Americamysis bahia, exposed to varying thiobencarb concentrations were estimated using stage-structured matrix models. A deterministic density-independent matrix model estimated the decrease in population growth rate, l, with increas...

Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moll, Andreas; Stegert, Christoph

2007-01-01

This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem-zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.

Modelling population dynamics and response to management options in the poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae (Acari: Dermanyssidae).

PubMed

Huber, K; Zenner, L; Bicout, D J

2011-02-28

The poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae is a major pest and widespread ectoparasite of laying hens and other domestic and wild birds. Under optimal conditions, D. gallinae can complete its lifecycle in less than 10 days, leading to rapid proliferation of populations in poultry systems. This paper focuses on developing a theoretical model framework to describe the population dynamics of D. gallinae. This model is then used to test the efficacy and residual effect of different control options for managing D. gallinae. As well as allowing comparison between treatment options, the model also allows comparison of treatment efficacies to different D. gallinae life stages. Three different means for controlling D. gallinae populations were subjected to the model using computer simulations: mechanical cleaning (killing once at a given time all accessible population stages), sanitary clearance (starving the mite population for a given duration, e.g. between flocks) and acaricide treatment (killing a proportion of nymphs and adults during the persistence of the treatment). Simulations showed that mechanical cleaning and sanitary clearance alone could not eradicate the model D. gallinae population, although these methods did delay population establishment. In contrast, the complete eradication of the model D. gallinae population was achieved by several successive acaricide treatments in close succession, even when a relatively low treatment level was used. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the population-level effects of hypoxia on a coastal fish: implications of a spatially-explicit individual-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, K.; Creekmore, S.; Thomas, P.; Craig, K.; Neilan, R.; Rahman, S.; Wang, L.; Justic, D.

2016-02-01

The northwestern Gulf of Mexico (USA) currently experiences a large hypoxic area ("dead zone") during the summer. The population-level effects of hypoxia on coastal fish are largely unknown. We developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of individual Atlantic croaker could lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 x 800 spatial grid of 1 km2 cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration and water temperature were specified daily for each grid cell. Dissolved oxygen (DO) was obtained from a 3-D water quality model for four years that differed in their severity of hypoxia. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and movement behavior was based on temperature preferences and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure-effects sub-models that converted time-varying exposure to DO to reductions in growth and fecundity, and increases in mortality. Using sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years, the model predicted a 20% decrease in population abundance. Additional simulations were performed under the assumption that river-based nutrients loadings that lead to more hypoxia also lead to higher primary production and more food for croaker. Twenty-five percent and 50% nutrient reduction scenarios were simulated by adjusting the cholorphyll-a concentrations used as food proxy for the croaker. We then incrementally increased the DO concentrations to determine how much hypoxia would need to be reduced to offset the lower food production resulting from reduced nutrients. We discuss the generality of our results, the hidden effects of hypoxia on fish, and our overall strategy of combining laboratory and field studies with modeling to produce robust predictions of population responses to stressors under dynamic and multi-stressor conditions.

Updated Three-Stage Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Mulligan, Connie J.; Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.

2008-01-01

Background We re-assess support for our three stage model for the peopling of the Americas in light of a recent report that identified nine non-Native American mitochondrial genome sequences that should not have been included in our initial analysis. Removal of these sequences results in the elimination of an early (i.e. ∼40,000 years ago) expansion signal we had proposed for the proto-Amerind population. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plot analysis of a new dataset of Native American mitochondrial coding genomes confirms the absence of an early expansion signal for the proto-Amerind population and allows us to reduce the variation around our estimate of the New World founder population size. In addition, genetic variants that define New World founder haplogroups are used to estimate the amount of time required between divergence of proto-Amerinds from the Asian gene pool and expansion into the New World. Conclusions/Significance The period of population isolation required for the generation of New World mitochondrial founder haplogroup-defining genetic variants makes the existence of three stages of colonization a logical conclusion. Thus, our three stage model remains an important and useful working hypothesis for researchers interested in the peopling of the Americas and the processes of colonization. PMID:18797500

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

Economic Feasibility of Wireless Sensor Network-Based Service Provision in a Duopoly Setting with a Monopolist Operator

PubMed Central

Romero, Julián; Sacoto-Cabrera, Erwin J.

2017-01-01

We analyze the feasibility of providing Wireless Sensor Network-data-based services in an Internet of Things scenario from an economical point of view. The scenario has two competing service providers with their own private sensor networks, a network operator and final users. The scenario is analyzed as two games using game theory. In the first game, sensors decide to subscribe or not to the network operator to upload the collected sensing-data, based on a utility function related to the mean service time and the price charged by the operator. In the second game, users decide to subscribe or not to the sensor-data-based service of the service providers based on a Logit discrete choice model related to the quality of the data collected and the subscription price. The sinks and users subscription stages are analyzed using population games and discrete choice models, while network operator and service providers pricing stages are analyzed using optimization and Nash equilibrium concepts respectively. The model is shown feasible from an economic point of view for all the actors if there are enough interested final users and opens the possibility of developing more efficient models with different types of services. PMID:29186847

Awareness, persuasion, and adoption: Enriching the Bass model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colapinto, Cinzia; Sartori, Elena; Tolotti, Marco

2014-02-01

In the context of diffusion of innovations, we propose a probabilistic model based on interacting populations connected through new communication channels. The potential adopters are heterogeneous in the connectivity levels and in their taste for innovation. The proposed framework can model the different stages of the adoption dynamics. In particular, the adoption curve is the result of a micro-founded decision process following the awareness phase. Eventually, we recover stylized facts pointed out by the extant literature in the field, such as delayed adoptions and non-monotonic adoption curves.

Droplets size evolution of dispersion in a stirred tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kysela, Bohus; Konfrst, Jiri; Chara, Zdenek; Sulc, Radek; Jasikova, Darina

2018-06-01

Dispersion of two immiscible liquids is commonly used in chemical industry as wall as in metallurgical industry e. g. extraction process. The governing property is droplet size distribution. The droplet sizes are given by the physical properties of both liquids and flow properties inside a stirred tank. The first investigation stage is focused on in-situ droplet size measurement using image analysis and optimizing of the evaluation method to achieve maximal result reproducibility. The obtained experimental results are compared with multiphase flow simulation based on Euler-Euler approach combined with PBM (Population Balance Modelling). The population balance model was, in that specific case, simplified with assumption of pure breakage of droplets.

Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

PubMed

Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

2011-06-01

Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

Population dynamics of the Concho water snake in rivers and reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whiting, M.J.; Dixon, J.R.; Greene, B.D.; Mueller, J.M.; Thornton, O.W.; Hatfield, J.S.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2008-01-01

The Concho Water Snake (Nerodia harteri paucimaculata) is confined to the Concho–Colorado River valley of central Texas, thereby occupying one of the smallest geographic ranges of any North American snake. In 1986, N. h. paucimaculata was designated as a federally threatened species, in large part because of reservoir projects that were perceived to adversely affect the amount of habitat available to the snake. During a ten-year period (1987–1996), we conducted capture–recapture field studies to assess dynamics of five subpopulations of snakes in both natural (river) and man-made (reservoir) habitats. Because of differential sampling of subpopulations, we present separate results for all five subpopulations combined (including large reservoirs) and three of the five subpopulations (excluding large reservoirs). We used multistate capture–recapture models to deal with stochastic transitions between pre-reproductive and reproductive size classes and to allow for the possibility of different survival and capture probabilities for the two classes. We also estimated both the finite rate of increase (λ) for a deterministic, stage-based, female-only matrix model using the average litter size, and the average rate of adult population change, λ ˆ, which describes changes in numbers of adult snakes, using a direct capture–recapture approach to estimation. Average annual adult survival was about 0.23 and similar for males and females. Average annual survival for subadults was about 0.14. The parameter estimates from the stage-based projection matrix analysis all yielded asymptotic values of λ < 1, suggesting populations that are not viable. However, the direct estimates of average adult λ for the three subpopulations excluding major reservoirs were λ ˆ  =  1.26, SE ˆ(λ ˆ)  =  0.18 and λ ˆ  =  0.99, SE ˆ(λ ˆ)  =  0.79, based on two different models. Thus, the direct estimation approach did not provide strong evidence of population declines of the riverine subpopulations, but the estimates are characterized by substantial uncertainty.

Demonstration of the Blood-Stage Plasmodium falciparum Controlled Human Malaria Infection Model to Assess Efficacy of the P. falciparum Apical Membrane Antigen 1 Vaccine, FMP2.1/AS01.

PubMed

Payne, Ruth O; Milne, Kathryn H; Elias, Sean C; Edwards, Nick J; Douglas, Alexander D; Brown, Rebecca E; Silk, Sarah E; Biswas, Sumi; Miura, Kazutoyo; Roberts, Rachel; Rampling, Thomas W; Venkatraman, Navin; Hodgson, Susanne H; Labbé, Geneviève M; Halstead, Fenella D; Poulton, Ian D; Nugent, Fay L; de Graaf, Hans; Sukhtankar, Priya; Williams, Nicola C; Ockenhouse, Christian F; Kathcart, April K; Qabar, Aziz N; Waters, Norman C; Soisson, Lorraine A; Birkett, Ashley J; Cooke, Graham S; Faust, Saul N; Woods, Colleen; Ivinson, Karen; McCarthy, James S; Diggs, Carter L; Vekemans, Johan; Long, Carole A; Hill, Adrian V S; Lawrie, Alison M; Dutta, Sheetij; Draper, Simon J

2016-06-01

Models of controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) initiated by mosquito bite have been widely used to assess efficacy of preerythrocytic vaccine candidates in small proof-of-concept phase 2a clinical trials. Efficacy testing of blood-stage malaria parasite vaccines, however, has generally relied on larger-scale phase 2b field trials in malaria-endemic populations. We report the use of a blood-stage P. falciparum CHMI model to assess blood-stage vaccine candidates, using their impact on the parasite multiplication rate (PMR) as the primary efficacy end point. Fifteen healthy United Kingdom adult volunteers were vaccinated with FMP2.1, a protein vaccine that is based on the 3D7 clone sequence of apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1) and formulated in Adjuvant System 01 (AS01). Twelve vaccinees and 15 infectivity controls subsequently underwent blood-stage CHMI. Parasitemia was monitored by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis, and PMR was modeled from these data. FMP2.1/AS01 elicited anti-AMA1 T-cell and serum antibody responses. Analysis of purified immunoglobulin G showed functional growth inhibitory activity against P. falciparum in vitro. There were no vaccine- or CHMI-related safety concerns. All volunteers developed blood-stage parasitemia, with no impact of the vaccine on PMR. FMP2.1/AS01 demonstrated no efficacy after blood-stage CHMI. However, the model induced highly reproducible infection in all volunteers and will accelerate proof-of-concept testing of future blood-stage vaccine candidates. NCT02044198. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Demonstration of the Blood-Stage Plasmodium falciparum Controlled Human Malaria Infection Model to Assess Efficacy of the P. falciparum Apical Membrane Antigen 1 Vaccine, FMP2.1/AS01

PubMed Central

Payne, Ruth O.; Milne, Kathryn H.; Elias, Sean C.; Edwards, Nick J.; Douglas, Alexander D.; Brown, Rebecca E.; Silk, Sarah E.; Biswas, Sumi; Miura, Kazutoyo; Roberts, Rachel; Rampling, Thomas W.; Venkatraman, Navin; Hodgson, Susanne H.; Labbé, Geneviève M.; Halstead, Fenella D.; Poulton, Ian D.; Nugent, Fay L.; de Graaf, Hans; Sukhtankar, Priya; Williams, Nicola C.; Ockenhouse, Christian F.; Kathcart, April K.; Qabar, Aziz N.; Waters, Norman C.; Soisson, Lorraine A.; Birkett, Ashley J.; Cooke, Graham S.; Faust, Saul N.; Woods, Colleen; Ivinson, Karen; McCarthy, James S.; Diggs, Carter L.; Vekemans, Johan; Long, Carole A.; Hill, Adrian V. S.; Lawrie, Alison M.; Dutta, Sheetij; Draper, Simon J.

2016-01-01

Background. Models of controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) initiated by mosquito bite have been widely used to assess efficacy of preerythrocytic vaccine candidates in small proof-of-concept phase 2a clinical trials. Efficacy testing of blood-stage malaria parasite vaccines, however, has generally relied on larger-scale phase 2b field trials in malaria-endemic populations. We report the use of a blood-stage P. falciparum CHMI model to assess blood-stage vaccine candidates, using their impact on the parasite multiplication rate (PMR) as the primary efficacy end point. Methods. Fifteen healthy United Kingdom adult volunteers were vaccinated with FMP2.1, a protein vaccine that is based on the 3D7 clone sequence of apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1) and formulated in Adjuvant System 01 (AS01). Twelve vaccinees and 15 infectivity controls subsequently underwent blood-stage CHMI. Parasitemia was monitored by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis, and PMR was modeled from these data. Results. FMP2.1/AS01 elicited anti-AMA1 T-cell and serum antibody responses. Analysis of purified immunoglobulin G showed functional growth inhibitory activity against P. falciparum in vitro. There were no vaccine- or CHMI-related safety concerns. All volunteers developed blood-stage parasitemia, with no impact of the vaccine on PMR. Conclusions. FMP2.1/AS01 demonstrated no efficacy after blood-stage CHMI. However, the model induced highly reproducible infection in all volunteers and will accelerate proof-of-concept testing of future blood-stage vaccine candidates. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02044198. PMID:26908756

Analysis of a model of gambiense sleeping sickness in humans and cattle.

PubMed

Ndondo, A M; Munganga, J M W; Mwambakana, J N; Saad-Roy, C M; van den Driessche, P; Walo, R O

2016-01-01

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) and Nagana in cattle, commonly called sleeping sickness, is caused by trypanosome protozoa transmitted by bites of infected tsetse flies. We present a deterministic model for the transmission of HAT caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense between human hosts, cattle hosts and tsetse flies. The model takes into account the growth of the tsetse fly, from its larval stage to the adult stage. Disease in the tsetse fly population is modeled by three compartments, and both the human and cattle populations are modeled by four compartments incorporating the two stages of HAT. We provide a rigorous derivation of the basic reproduction number R0. For R0 < 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, thus HAT dies out; whereas (assuming no return to susceptibility) for R0 >1, HAT persists. Elasticity indices for R0 with respect to different parameters are calculated with baseline parameter values appropriate for HAT in West Africa; indicating parameters that are important for control strategies to bring R0 below 1. Numerical simulations with R0 > 1 show values for the infected populations at the endemic equilibrium, and indicate that with certain parameter values, HAT could not persist in the human population in the absence of cattle.

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Comparison of clinicopathologic features and survival of histopathologically amelanotic and pigmented melanomas: a population-based study.

PubMed

Thomas, Nancy E; Kricker, Anne; Waxweiler, Weston T; Dillon, Patrick M; Busman, Klaus J; From, Lynn; Groben, Pamela A; Armstrong, Bruce K; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gruber, Stephen B; Marrett, Loraine D; Gallagher, Richard P; Zanetti, Roberto; Rosso, Stefano; Dwyer, Terence; Venn, Alison; Kanetsky, Peter A; Orlow, Irene; Paine, Susan; Ollila, David W; Reiner, Anne S; Luo, Li; Hao, Honglin; Frank, Jill S; Begg, Colin B; Berwick, Marianne

2014-12-01

IMPORTANCE Previous studies have reported that histopathologically amelanotic melanoma is associated with poorer survival than pigmented melanoma; however, small numbers of amelanotic melanomas, selected populations, lack of centralized pathologic review, or no adjustment for stage limit the interpretation or generalization of results from prior studies.OBJECTIVE To compare melanoma-specific survival between patients with histopathologically amelanotic and those with pigmented melanoma in a large international population-based study.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Survival analysis with a median follow-up of 7.6 years.The study population comprised 2995 patients with 3486 invasive primary melanomas centrally scored for histologic pigmentation from the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma(GEM) Study, which enrolled incident cases of melanoma diagnosed in 1998 through 2003 from international population-based cancer registries.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Clinicopathologic predictors and melanoma-specific survival of histologically amelanotic and pigmented melanoma were compared using generalized estimating equations and Cox regression models, respectively.RESULTS Of 3467 melanomas, 275 (8%) were histopathologically amelanotic. Female sex,nodular and unclassified or other histologic subtypes, increased Breslow thickness, presence of mitoses, severe solar elastosis, and lack of a coexisting nevus were independently associated with amelanotic melanoma (each P < .05). Amelanotic melanoma was generally ofa higher American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage at diagnosis (odds ratios[ORs] [95%CIs] between 2.9 [1.8-4.6] and 11.1 [5.8-21.2] for tumor stages between T1b and T3b and ORs [95%CIs] of 24.6 [13.6-44.4] for T4a and 29.1 [15.5-54.9] for T4b relative to T1a;P value for trend, <.001) than pigmented melanoma. Hazard of death from melanoma was higher for amelanotic than for pigmented melanoma (hazard ratio [HR], 2.0; 95%CI, 1.4-3.0)(P < .001), adjusted for age, sex, anatomic site, and study design variables, but survival did not differ once AJCC tumor stage was also taken into account (HR, 0.8; 95%CI, 0.5-1.2)(P = .36).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE At the population level, survival after diagnosis of amelanotic melanoma is poorer than after pigmented melanoma because of its more advanced stage at diagnosis. It is probable that amelanotic melanomas present at more advanced tumor stages because they are difficult to diagnose. The association of amelanotic melanoma with presence of mitoses independently of Breslow thickness and other clinicopathologic characteristics suggests that amelanotic melanomas might also grow faster than pigmented melanomas. New strategies for early diagnosis and investigation of the biological properties of amelanotic melanoma are warranted.

Stage-structured matrix models for organisms with non-geometric development times

Treesearch

Andrew Birt; Richard M. Feldman; David M. Cairns; Robert N. Coulson; Maria Tchakerian; Weimin Xi; James M. Guldin

2009-01-01

Matrix models have been used to model population growth of organisms for many decades. They are popular because of both their conceptual simplicity and their computational efficiency. For some types of organisms they are relatively accurate in predicting population growth; however, for others the matrix approach does not adequately model...

Long‐term trends in fall age ratios of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Stehn, Robert A.; Dau, Christian P.

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the age composition of populations can inform past reproductive success and future population trajectories. We examined fall age ratios (juveniles:total birds) of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) staging at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska, USA, 1963 to 2015. We also investigated variation in fall age ratios associated with sampling location, an index of flock size, survey effort, day of season, observer, survey platform (boat‐ or land‐based) and tide stage. We analyzed data using logistic regression models implemented in a Bayesian framework. Mean predicted fall age ratio controlling for survey effort, day of year, and temporal and spatial variation was 0.24 (95% CL = 0.23, 0.25). Overall trend in age ratios was −0.6% per year (95% CL = −1.3%, 0.2%), resulting in an approximate 26% decline in the proportion of juveniles over the study period. We found evidence for variation across a range of variables implying that juveniles are not randomly distributed in space and time within Izembek Lagoon. Age ratios varied by location within the study area and were highly variable among years. They decreased with the number of birds aged (an index of flock size) and increased throughout September before leveling off in early October and declining in late October. Age ratios were similar among tide stages and observers and were lower during boat‐based (offshore) than land‐based (nearshore) surveys. Our results indicate surveys should be conducted annually during early to mid‐October to ensure the entire population is present and available for sampling, and throughout Izembek Lagoon to account for spatiotemporal variation in age ratios. Sampling should include a wide range of flock sizes representative of their distribution and occur in flocks located near and off shore. Further research evaluating the cause of declining age ratios in the fall population is necessary to inform management and predict long‐term population dynamics of brant.

PROJECTING POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF PURPLE SEA URCHINS TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an ecological risk assessment case study at the Portsmouth naval Shipyard (PNS), Kittery, Maine, USA, the population level effects of lead exposure to purple sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, were investigated using a stage-classified matrix population model. The model d...

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status

PubMed Central

Sarmiento, Olga L.; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D.; Valdivia, Juan A.; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs. PMID:29420563

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Meisel, Jose D; Sarmiento, Olga L; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D; Valdivia, Juan A; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs.

A Computational Model of the Rainbow Trout Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Ovary-Liver Axis

PubMed Central

Gillies, Kendall; Krone, Stephen M.; Nagler, James J.; Schultz, Irvin R.

2016-01-01

Reproduction in fishes and other vertebrates represents the timely coordination of many endocrine factors that culminate in the production of mature, viable gametes. In recent years there has been rapid growth in understanding fish reproductive biology, which has been motivated in part by recognition of the potential effects that climate change, habitat destruction and contaminant exposure can have on natural and cultured fish populations. New approaches to understanding the impacts of these stressors are being developed that require a systems biology approach with more biologically accurate and detailed mathematical models. We have developed a multi-scale mathematical model of the female rainbow trout hypothalamus-pituitary-ovary-liver axis to use as a tool to help understand the functioning of the system and for extrapolation of laboratory findings of stressor impacts on specific components of the axis. The model describes the essential endocrine components of the female rainbow trout reproductive axis. The model also describes the stage specific growth of maturing oocytes within the ovary and permits the presence of sub-populations of oocytes at different stages of development. Model formulation and parametrization was largely based on previously published in vivo and in vitro data in rainbow trout and new data on the synthesis of gonadotropins in the pituitary. Model predictions were validated against several previously published data sets for annual changes in gonadotropins and estradiol in rainbow trout. Estimates of select model parameters can be obtained from in vitro assays using either quantitative (direct estimation of rate constants) or qualitative (relative change from control values) approaches. This is an important aspect of mathematical models as in vitro, cell-based assays are expected to provide the bulk of experimental data for future risk assessments and will require quantitative physiological models to extrapolate across biological scales. PMID:27096735

A Computational Model of the Rainbow Trout Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Ovary-Liver Axis.

PubMed

Gillies, Kendall; Krone, Stephen M; Nagler, James J; Schultz, Irvin R

2016-04-01

Reproduction in fishes and other vertebrates represents the timely coordination of many endocrine factors that culminate in the production of mature, viable gametes. In recent years there has been rapid growth in understanding fish reproductive biology, which has been motivated in part by recognition of the potential effects that climate change, habitat destruction and contaminant exposure can have on natural and cultured fish populations. New approaches to understanding the impacts of these stressors are being developed that require a systems biology approach with more biologically accurate and detailed mathematical models. We have developed a multi-scale mathematical model of the female rainbow trout hypothalamus-pituitary-ovary-liver axis to use as a tool to help understand the functioning of the system and for extrapolation of laboratory findings of stressor impacts on specific components of the axis. The model describes the essential endocrine components of the female rainbow trout reproductive axis. The model also describes the stage specific growth of maturing oocytes within the ovary and permits the presence of sub-populations of oocytes at different stages of development. Model formulation and parametrization was largely based on previously published in vivo and in vitro data in rainbow trout and new data on the synthesis of gonadotropins in the pituitary. Model predictions were validated against several previously published data sets for annual changes in gonadotropins and estradiol in rainbow trout. Estimates of select model parameters can be obtained from in vitro assays using either quantitative (direct estimation of rate constants) or qualitative (relative change from control values) approaches. This is an important aspect of mathematical models as in vitro, cell-based assays are expected to provide the bulk of experimental data for future risk assessments and will require quantitative physiological models to extrapolate across biological scales.

Neutral null models for diversity in serial transfer evolution experiments.

PubMed

Harpak, Arbel; Sella, Guy

2014-09-01

Evolution experiments with microorganisms coupled with genome-wide sequencing now allow for the systematic study of population genetic processes under a wide range of conditions. In learning about these processes in natural, sexual populations, neutral models that describe the behavior of diversity and divergence summaries have played a pivotal role. It is therefore natural to ask whether neutral models, suitably modified, could be useful in the context of evolution experiments. Here, we introduce coalescent models for polymorphism and divergence under the most common experimental evolution assay, a serial transfer experiment. This relatively simple setting allows us to address several issues that could affect diversity patterns in evolution experiments, whether selection is operating or not: the transient behavior of neutral polymorphism in an experiment beginning from a single clone, the effects of randomness in the timing of cell division and noisiness in population size in the dilution stage. In our analyses and discussion, we emphasize the implications for experiments aimed at measuring diversity patterns and making inferences about population genetic processes based on these measurements. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Refining and validating a two-stage and web-based cancer risk assessment tool for village doctors in China.

PubMed

Shen, Xing-Rong; Chai, Jing; Feng, Rui; Liu, Tong-Zhu; Tong, Gui-Xian; Cheng, Jing; Li, Kai-Chun; Xie, Shao-Yu; Shi, Yong; Wang, De-Bin

2014-01-01

The big gap between efficacy of population level prevention and expectations due to heterogeneity and complexity of cancer etiologic factors calls for selective yet personalized interventions based on effective risk assessment. This paper documents our research protocol aimed at refining and validating a two-stage and web- based cancer risk assessment tool, from a tentative one in use by an ongoing project, capable of identifying individuals at elevated risk for one or more types of the 80% leading cancers in rural China with adequate sensitivity and specificity and featuring low cost, easy application and cultural and technical sensitivity for farmers and village doctors. The protocol adopted a modified population-based case control design using 72, 000 non-patients as controls, 2, 200 cancer patients as cases, and another 600 patients as cases for external validation. Factors taken into account comprised 8 domains including diet and nutrition, risk behaviors, family history, precancerous diseases, related medical procedures, exposure to environment hazards, mood and feelings, physical activities and anthropologic and biologic factors. Modeling stresses explored various methodologies like empirical analysis, logistic regression, neuro-network analysis, decision theory and both internal and external validation using concordance statistics, predictive values, etc..

Novel Phenotype Issues Raised in Cross-National Epidemiological Research on Drug Dependence

PubMed Central

Anthony, James C.

2010-01-01

Stage-transition models based on the American Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) generally are applied in epidemiology and genetics research on drug dependence syndromes associated with cannabis, cocaine, and other internationally regulated drugs (IRD). Difficulties with DSM stage-transition models have surfaced during cross-national research intended to provide a truly global perspective, such as the work of the World Mental Health Surveys (WMHS) Consortium. Alternative simpler dependence-related phenotypes are possible, including population-level count process models for steps early and before coalescence of clinical features into a coherent syndrome (e.g., zero-inflated Poisson regression). Selected findings are reviewed, based on ZIP modeling of alcohol, tobacco, and IRD count processes, with an illustration that may stimulate new research on genetic susceptibility traits. The annual National Surveys on Drug Use and Health can be readily modified for this purpose, along the lines of a truly anonymous research approach that can help make NSDUH-type cross-national epidemiological surveys more useful in the context of subsequent genome wide association (GWAS) research and post-GWAS investigations with a truly global health perspective. PMID:20201862

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

2014-11-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

Generalized fish life-cycle poplulation model and computer program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeAngelis, D. L.; Van Winkle, W.; Christensen, S. W.

1978-03-01

A generalized fish life-cycle population model and computer program have been prepared to evaluate the long-term effect of changes in mortality in age class 0. The general question concerns what happens to a fishery when density-independent sources of mortality are introduced that act on age class 0, particularly entrainment and impingement at power plants. This paper discusses the model formulation and computer program, including sample results. The population model consists of a system of difference equations involving age-dependent fecundity and survival. The fecundity for each age class is assumed to be a function of both the fraction of females sexuallymore » mature and the weight of females as they enter each age class. Natural mortality for age classes 1 and older is assumed to be independent of population size. Fishing mortality is assumed to vary with the number and weight of fish available to the fishery. Age class 0 is divided into six life stages. The probability of survival for age class 0 is estimated considering both density-independent mortality (natural and power plant) and density-dependent mortality for each life stage. Two types of density-dependent mortality are included. These are cannibalism of each life stage by older age classes and intra-life-stage competition.« less

A population model of the impact of a rodenticide containing strychnine on Great Basin Gophersnakes (Pituophis catenifer deserticola).

PubMed

Bishop, Christine A; Williams, Kathleen E; Kirk, David A; Nantel, Patrick; Reed, Eric; Elliott, John E

2016-09-01

Strychnine is a neurotoxin and an active ingredient in some rodenticides which are placed in burrows to suppress pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides) populations in range and crop land in western North America. The population level impact was modelled of the use of strychnine-based rodenticides on a non-target snake species, the Great Basin Gophersnake (Pituophis catenifer deserticola), which is a predator of pocket gopher and a Species at Risk in Canada. Using information on population density, demographics, and movement and habitat suitability for the Gophersnake living in an agricultural valley in BC, Canada, we estimated the impact of the poisoning of adult snakes on the long-term population size. To determine the area where Gophersnakes could be exposed to strychnine, we used vendor records of a rodenticide, and quantified the landcover areas of orchards and vineyards where the compound was most commonly applied. GIS analysis determined the areas of overlap between those agricultural lands and suitable habitats used by Gophersnakes. Stage-based population matrix models revealed that in a low density (0.1/ha) population scenario, a diet of one pocket gopher per year wherein 10 % of them carried enough strychnine to kill an adult snake could cause the loss of 2 females annually from the population and this would reduce the population by 35.3 % in 25 years. Under the same dietary exposure, up to 35 females could die per year in a high density (0.4/ha) population which would result in a loss of 50 % of adults in 25 years.

Evaluating Nicotine Replacement Therapy and Stage-Based Therapies in a Population-Based Effectiveness Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Friedman, Robert H.; Fava, Joseph L.; Gulliver, Suzy B.; Keller, Stefan; Sun, Xiaowu; Ramelson, Harley; Prochaska, James O.

2006-01-01

Pharmacological interventions for smoking cessation are typically evaluated using volunteer samples (efficacy trials) but should also be evaluated in population-based trials (effectiveness trials). Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) alone and in combination with behavioral interventions was evaluated on a population of smokers from a New England…

Comprehensive multi-stage linkage analyses identify a locus for adult height on chromosome 3p in a healthy Caucasian population.

PubMed

Ellis, Justine A; Scurrah, Katrina J; Duncan, Anna E; Lamantia, Angela; Byrnes, Graham B; Harrap, Stephen B

2007-04-01

There have been a number of genome-wide linkage studies for adult height in recent years. These studies have yielded few well-replicated loci, and none have been further confirmed by the identification of associated gene variants. The inconsistent results may be attributable to the fact that few studies have combined accurate phenotype measures with informative statistical modelling in healthy populations. We have performed a multi-stage genome-wide linkage analysis for height in 275 adult sibling pairs drawn randomly from the Victorian Family Heart Study (VFHS), a healthy population-based Caucasian cohort. Height was carefully measured in a standardised fashion on regularly calibrated equipment. Following genome-wide identification of a peak Z-score of 3.14 on chromosome 3 at 69 cM, we performed a fine-mapping analysis of this region in an extended sample of 392 two-generation families. We used a number of variance components models that incorporated assortative mating and shared environment effects, and we observed a peak LOD score of approximately 3.5 at 78 cM in four of the five models tested. We also demonstrated that the most prevalent model in the literature gave the worst fit, and the lowest LOD score (2.9) demonstrating the importance of appropriate modelling. The region identified in this study replicates the results of other genome-wide scans of height and bone-related phenotypes, strongly suggesting the presence of a gene important in bone growth on chromosome 3p. Association analyses of relevant candidate genes should identify the genetic variants responsible for the chromosome 3p linkage signal in our population.

Using a spatially structured life cycle model to assess the influence of multiple stressors on an exploited coastal-nursery-dependent population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambault, B.; Rivot, E.; Savina, M.; Le Pape, O.

2018-02-01

Exploited coastal-nursery-dependent fish species are subject to various stressors occurring at specific stages of the life cycle: climate-driven variability in hydrography determines the success of the first eggs/larvae stages; coastal nursery habitat suitability controls juvenile growth and survival; and fisheries target mostly adults. A life cycle approach was used to quantify the relative influence of these stressors on the Eastern English Channel (EEC) population of the common sole (Solea solea), a coastal-nursery-dependent flatfish population which sustains important fisheries. The common sole has a complex life cycle: after eggs hatch, larvae spend several weeks drifting in open water. Survivors go on to metamorphose into benthic fish. Juveniles spend the first two years of their life in coastal and estuarine nurseries. Close to maturation, they migrate to deeper areas, where different subpopulations supplied by different nurseries reproduce and are exploited by fisheries. A spatially structured age-and stage-based hierarchical Bayesian model integrating various aspects of ecological knowledge, data sources and expert knowledge was built to quantitatively describe this complex life cycle. The model included the low connectivity among three subpopulations in the EEC, the influence of hydrographic variability, the availability of suitable juvenile habitat and fisheries. Scenarios were designed to quantify the effects of interacting stressors on population renewal. Results emphasized the importance of coastal nursery habitat availability and quality for the population renewal. Realistic restoration scenarios of the highly degraded Seine estuary produced a two-third increase in catch potential for the adjacent subpopulation. Fisheries, however, remained the main source of population depletion. Setting fishing mortality to the maximum sustainable yield led to substantial increases in biomass (+100%) and catch (+33%) at the EEC scale. The approach also showed how climate-driven variability in hydrography is likely to interact with human pressures, e.g., overfishing increased the sensitivity to unfavourable conditions. Our results provided insights into the dynamics of numerous exploited coastal-nursery-dependent species while paving the way toward more robust advice for sustainable management of these resources.

A grounded theory of bisexual individuals' experiences of help seeking.

PubMed

MacKay, Jenna; Robinson, Margaret; Pinder, Sarah; Ross, Lori E

2017-01-01

Bisexual people constitute the largest sexual minority group in North America and experience significant mental health disparities in relation to heterosexuals, gays, and lesbians. In this article, we will examine the process and experience of help seeking among bisexuals. This was a community-based study that collected qualitative interview data from 41 diverse bisexual people from across Ontario, Canada. We analyzed the interview data using grounded theory and constructed an understanding of bisexuals' experiences of help seeking. We have conceptualized an overarching model that illustrates 4 interrelated stages: (a) the consideration of services, (b) the process of finding services, (c) barriers and facilitators to accessing services, and (d) experience of service utilization. This model is nonlinear, in that participants do not necessarily move through stages in sequence. Although many stages are experienced at the individual level, they are simultaneously informed by multiple factors at interpersonal and system levels. Our findings suggest a need for interventions at the policy, service and provider levels to improve accessibility of culturally competent services for this population. Understanding the mental health experiences of bisexual people will allow mental health professionals to build competencies working with this population and thereby contribute to a reduction in mental health disparities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Recent Trends in Survival of Patients With Pancreatic Cancer in Germany and the United States.

PubMed

Sirri, Eunice; Castro, Felipe Andres; Kieschke, Joachim; Jansen, Lina; Emrich, Katharina; Gondos, Adam; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Urbschat, Iris; Vohmann, Claudia; Brenner, Hermann

2016-07-01

Survival improvement for pancreatic cancer has not been observed in the last 4 decades. We report the most up-to-date population-based relative survival (RS) estimates and recent trends in Germany and the United States. Data for patients diagnosed in 1997 to 2010 and followed up to 2010 were drawn from 12 population-based German cancer registries and the US SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results) 13 registries database. Using period analysis, 5-year RS for 2007 to 2010 was derived. Model-based period analysis was used to assess 5-year RS time trends, 2002-2010. In total 28,977 (Germany) and 34,793 (United States) patients aged 15 to 74 years were analyzed. Five-year RS was 10.7% and 10.3% in Germany and the United States, respectively, and strongly decreased with age and tumor spread. Prognosis slightly improved from the period 2002-2004 to 2008-2010 (overall age-adjusted RS: +2.5% units in Germany and +3.4% units in the United States); improvement was particularly strong for regional stage and head and body subsites in Germany and for localized and regional stages and tail subsite in the United States. Although pancreatic cancer survival continues to be poor for advanced-stage patients, our study disclosed encouraging indications of first improvements in 5-year RS after decades of stagnation.

End-Stage Renal Disease Models in the Americas: Optimizing Resources to Achieve Better Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Gilardino, Ramiro E; González-Pier, Eduardo; Brabata, Claudia

2018-05-21

End-stage renal disease, the last and most severe stage of chronic kidney disease, represents a major and rising concern for countries in Latin America, driven in large part by aging populations and the near-epidemic rises in diabetes, obesity, and hypertension. This places a great clinical, economic, and social burden on the region's health systems. During the ISPOR 6th Latin America Conference held in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in September 2017, an educational forum debated on value-based decision making in the treatment of end-stage renal disease in Latin America. We summarize the current state and how to build strategies and implement actions to move to a more patient-centered, outcomes-based approach for renal care in the region, taken from the discussions in the conference and also from a literature review. Models of renal care used in Ontario (Canada), Colombia, and a Chilean hospital stress the importance of empowering and supporting patients and their families, allowing for a better coordination between primary care providers and specialists, providing financial incentives to health units, and establishing an entity that holds insurers and providers accountable for health outcomes and costs of treatment. The study uses the framework of value-based health care for the evaluation of different dialysis options-peritoneal dialysis, hemodialysis, home dialysis, and so forth-and calls for the countries to adopt an integrated care model. We emphasize that countries in Latin America need to recognize the chronic kidney disease challenge and develop health systems and efficient renal care models to be able to reduce the burden of the disease. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

PubMed

Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Food-plant niche selection rather than the presence of ant nests explains oviposition patterns in the myrmecophilous butterfly genus Maculinea.

PubMed

Thomas, J A; Elmes, G W

2001-03-07

It has been suggested that the socially parasitic butterfly Maculinea alcon detects ant odours before ovipositing on initial larval food plants near colonies of its obligate ant host Myrmica ruginodis. It has also been suggested that overcrowding on food plants near M. ruginodis is avoided by an ability to detect high egg loads, resulting in a switch to selecting plants near less suitable ant species. If confirmed, this hypothesis (H1) would have serious implications for the application of current population models aimed at the conservation of endangered Maculinea species, which are based on the null hypothesis (H0) that females randomly select food plants whose flower buds are at a precise phenological stage, making oviposition independent of ants. If H1 were wrong, practical management based upon its assumptions could lead to the extinction of protected populations. We present data for the five European species of Maculinea which show that (i) each oviposits on a phenologically restricted flower-bud stage, which accounts for the apparent host-ant-mediated niche separation in sympatric populations of Maculinea nausithous and Maculinea teleius, (ii) there is no temporal shift in oviposition by Maculinea arion in relation to host ant distribution or egg density, and (iii) oviposition patterns in 13 populations of M. alcon's closest relative, Macaulinea rebeli, conform to H0 not H1 predictions. It is concluded that conservation measures should continue to be based on H0.

Taking Brief Strategic Family Therapy from Bench to Trench: Evidence Generation Across Translational Phases.

PubMed

Horigian, Viviana E; Anderson, Austen R; Szapocznik, José

2016-09-01

In this article, we review the research evidence generated over 40 years on Brief Strategic Family Therapy illustrating the NIH stages of intervention development and highlighting the translational process. Basic research (Stage 0) led to the discovery of the characteristics of the population and the nature of the problems that needed to be addressed. This step informed the selection of an intervention model that addressed the problems presented by the population, but in a fashion that was congruent with the population's culture, defined in terms of its value orientations. From this basic research, an intervention that integrated structural and strategic elements was selected and refined through testing (Stage I). The second stage of translation (Stage II) included efficacy trials of a specialized engagement module that responded to challenges to the provision of services. It also included several other efficacy trials that documented the effects of the intervention, mostly in research settings or with research therapists. Stages III/IV in the translational process led to the testing of the effectiveness of the intervention in real-world settings with community therapists and some oversight from the developer. This work revealed that an implementation/organizational intervention was required to achieve fidelity and sustainability of the intervention in real-world settings. The work is currently in Stage V in which new model development led to an implementation intervention that can ensure fidelity and sustainability. Future research will evaluate the effectiveness of the current implementation model in increasing adoption, fidelity, and long-term sustainability in real-world settings. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Genomic selection in a commercial winter wheat population.

PubMed

He, Sang; Schulthess, Albert Wilhelm; Mirdita, Vilson; Zhao, Yusheng; Korzun, Viktor; Bothe, Reiner; Ebmeyer, Erhard; Reif, Jochen C; Jiang, Yong

2016-03-01

Genomic selection models can be trained using historical data and filtering genotypes based on phenotyping intensity and reliability criterion are able to increase the prediction ability. We implemented genomic selection based on a large commercial population incorporating 2325 European winter wheat lines. Our objectives were (1) to study whether modeling epistasis besides additive genetic effects results in enhancement on prediction ability of genomic selection, (2) to assess prediction ability when training population comprised historical or less-intensively phenotyped lines, and (3) to explore the prediction ability in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion. We found a 5 % increase in prediction ability when shifting from additive to additive plus epistatic effects models. In addition, only a marginal loss from 0.65 to 0.50 in accuracy was observed using the data collected from 1 year to predict genotypes of the following year, revealing that stable genomic selection models can be accurately calibrated to predict subsequent breeding stages. Moreover, prediction ability was maximized when the genotypes evaluated in a single location were excluded from the training set but subsequently decreased again when the phenotyping intensity was increased above two locations, suggesting that the update of the training population should be performed considering all the selected genotypes but excluding those evaluated in a single location. The genomic prediction ability was substantially higher in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion, indicating that phenotypic selection for highly reliable individuals could be directly replaced by applying genomic selection to them. We empirically conclude that there is a high potential to assist commercial wheat breeding programs employing genomic selection approaches.

Evaluating the stage of change model to a cervical cancer screening intervention among Ohio Appalachian women

PubMed Central

Krok-Schoen, Jessica L.; Oliveri, Jill M.; Young, Gregory S.; Katz, Mira L.; Tatum, Cathy M.; Paskett, Electra D.

2016-01-01

Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates are disproportionally high among women living in Ohio Appalachia. This study used the Transtheoretical Model to examine screening barriers before and after a lay health advisor (LHA) intervention (2005–2009) to increase cervical cancer screening rates. Ohio Appalachian women (n = 90) who were in need of a Pap test, based on risk-appropriate guidelines, and were randomized to a 10-month LHA intervention, received two in-person visits, two phone calls, and four mailed postcards targeted to the participant’s stage of change. Findings revealed that 63% had forward stage movement ten months after the intervention. The most frequently reported screening barriers were time constraints, forgetting to make an appointment, and cost. Women reporting the following barriers: doctor not recommending the test, unable to afford the test, and being embarrassed, nervous, or afraid of getting a Pap test were less likely to be in the action stage. Understanding the stages of change related to Pap testing and reported barriers among this underserved population may help inform researchers and clinicians of this population’s readiness for change and how to set realistic intervention goals. PMID:26479700

Managing American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) population qrowth by targeting nesting season vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felton, Shilo K.; Hostetter, Nathan J.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2017-01-01

In populations of long-lived species, adult survival typically has a relatively high influence on population growth. From a management perspective, however, adult survival can be difficult to increase in some instances, so other component rates must be considered to reverse population declines. In North Carolina, USA, management to conserve the American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) targets component vital rates related to fecundity, specifically nest and chick survival. The effectiveness of such a management approach in North Carolina was assessed by creating a three-stage female-based deterministic matrix model. Isoclines were produced from the matrix model to evaluate minimum nest and chick survival rates necessary to reverse population decline, assuming all other vital rates remained stable at mean values. Assuming accurate vital rates, breeding populations within North Carolina appear to be declining. To reverse this decline, combined nest and chick survival would need to increase from 0.14 to ≤ 0.27, a rate that appears to be attainable based on historical estimates. Results are heavily dependent on assumptions of other vital rates, most notably adult survival, revealing the need for accurate estimates of all vital rates to inform management actions. This approach provides valuable insights for evaluating conservation goals for species of concern.

Relationship of psychological factors with physical activity stage of change in prime-and middle-aged Japanese.

PubMed

Mori, Keiko; Suzuki, Hisao; Wang, Da-Hong; Takaki, Jiro; Takigawa, Tomoko; Ogino, Keiki

2009-04-01

The present study aimed to investigate the status of physical activity and the differences in psychological factors associated with physical activity from the perspective of transtheoretical model stages between prime- and middle-aged Japanese. The study involved 375 prime-aged volunteers (175 men, 200 women) and 557 middle-aged volunteers (247 men, 310 women) living in Kuse, a town in Okayama Prefecture, Japan. We found that the prime-aged men at the preparation stage had significantly higher self-efficacy scores than at the contemplation stage (p<0.01). Middle-aged men had significantly higher self-efficacy scores at the contemplation stage than at the precontemplation stage (p<0.001). Middle-aged women, meanwhile, had significantly higher self-efficacy scores at the maintenance stage than at the action stage (p<0.01), and at the contemplation stage than at the precontemplation stage (p<0.001). The present findings provide valuable information about the differences in psychological factors affecting physical activity between prime-aged and middle-aged community-dwelling Japanese. This information may be useful to health professionals as they develop effective community-based intervention programs for target populations.

Using matrix population models to inform biological control management of the wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic models are a powerful means of identifying vulnerable life stages of pest species and assessing the potential effectiveness of various management approaches in reducing pest population growth and spread. In a biological control context, such models can be used to focus foreign explorati...

The genealogical decomposition of a matrix population model with applications to the aggregation of stages.

PubMed

Bienvenu, François; Akçay, Erol; Legendre, Stéphane; McCandlish, David M

2017-06-01

Matrix projection models are a central tool in many areas of population biology. In most applications, one starts from the projection matrix to quantify the asymptotic growth rate of the population (the dominant eigenvalue), the stable stage distribution, and the reproductive values (the dominant right and left eigenvectors, respectively). Any primitive projection matrix also has an associated ergodic Markov chain that contains information about the genealogy of the population. In this paper, we show that these facts can be used to specify any matrix population model as a triple consisting of the ergodic Markov matrix, the dominant eigenvalue and one of the corresponding eigenvectors. This decomposition of the projection matrix separates properties associated with lineages from those associated with individuals. It also clarifies the relationships between many quantities commonly used to describe such models, including the relationship between eigenvalue sensitivities and elasticities. We illustrate the utility of such a decomposition by introducing a new method for aggregating classes in a matrix population model to produce a simpler model with a smaller number of classes. Unlike the standard method, our method has the advantage of preserving reproductive values and elasticities. It also has conceptually satisfying properties such as commuting with changes of units. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Demographic Modelling in Weed Biocontrol

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption. Therefore, this approach has the potential to guide the pre-release selection...

Learning Factor Models of Students at Risk of Failing in the Early Stage of Tertiary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Geraldine; McGuinness, Colm; Owende, Philip; Hofmann, Markus

2016-01-01

This paper reports on a study to predict students at risk of failing based on data available prior to commencement of first year. The study was conducted over three years, 2010 to 2012, on a student population from a range of academic disciplines, n=1,207. Data was gathered from both student enrollment data and an online, self-reporting,…

New models for age estimation and assessment of their accuracy using developing mandibular third molar teeth in a Thai population.

PubMed

Duangto, P; Iamaroon, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P; Janhom, A

2017-03-01

Age estimation using developing third molar teeth is considered an important and accurate technique for both clinical and forensic practices. The aims of this study were to establish population-specific reference data, to develop age prediction models using mandibular third molar development, to test the accuracy of the resulting models, and to find the probability of persons being at the age thresholds of legal relevance in a Thai population. A total of 1867 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals aged between 8 and 23 years was selected to assess dental age. The mandibular third molar development was divided into nine stages. The stages were evaluated and each stage was transformed into a development score. Quadratic regression was employed to develop age prediction models. Our results show that males reached mandibular third molar root formation stages earlier than females. The models revealed a high correlation coefficient for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (R = 0.945 and 0.944 in males, R = 0.922 and 0.923 in females, respectively). Furthermore, the accuracy of the resulting models was tested in randomly selected 374 cases and showed low error values between the predicted dental age and the chronological age for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (-0.13 and -0.17 years in males, 0.01 and 0.03 years in females, respectively). In Thai samples, when the mandibular third molar teeth reached stage H, the probability of the person being over 18 years was 100 % in both sexes.

A Two-Stage Estimation Method for Random Coefficient Differential Equation Models with Application to Longitudinal HIV Dynamic Data.

PubMed

Fang, Yun; Wu, Hulin; Zhu, Li-Xing

2011-07-01

We propose a two-stage estimation method for random coefficient ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. A maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator (MPLE) is derived based on a mixed-effects modeling approach and its asymptotic properties for population parameters are established. The proposed method does not require repeatedly solving ODEs, and is computationally efficient although it does pay a price with the loss of some estimation efficiency. However, the method does offer an alternative approach when the exact likelihood approach fails due to model complexity and high-dimensional parameter space, and it can also serve as a method to obtain the starting estimates for more accurate estimation methods. In addition, the proposed method does not need to specify the initial values of state variables and preserves all the advantages of the mixed-effects modeling approach. The finite sample properties of the proposed estimator are studied via Monte Carlo simulations and the methodology is also illustrated with application to an AIDS clinical data set.

Using machine learning to identify air pollution exposure profiles associated with early cognitive skills among U.S. children.

PubMed

Stingone, Jeanette A; Pandey, Om P; Claudio, Luz; Pandey, Gaurav

2017-11-01

Data-driven machine learning methods present an opportunity to simultaneously assess the impact of multiple air pollutants on health outcomes. The goal of this study was to apply a two-stage, data-driven approach to identify associations between air pollutant exposure profiles and children's cognitive skills. Data from 6900 children enrolled in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort, a national study of children born in 2001 and followed through kindergarten, were linked to estimated concentrations of 104 ambient air toxics in the 2002 National Air Toxics Assessment using ZIP code of residence at age 9 months. In the first-stage, 100 regression trees were learned to identify ambient air pollutant exposure profiles most closely associated with scores on a standardized mathematics test administered to children in kindergarten. In the second-stage, the exposure profiles frequently predicting lower math scores were included within linear regression models and adjusted for confounders in order to estimate the magnitude of their effect on math scores. This approach was applied to the full population, and then to the populations living in urban and highly-populated urban areas. Our first-stage results in the full population suggested children with low trichloroethylene exposure had significantly lower math scores. This association was not observed for children living in urban communities, suggesting that confounding related to urbanicity needs to be considered within the first-stage. When restricting our analysis to populations living in urban and highly-populated urban areas, high isophorone levels were found to predict lower math scores. Within adjusted regression models of children in highly-populated urban areas, the estimated effect of higher isophorone exposure on math scores was -1.19 points (95% CI -1.94, -0.44). Similar results were observed for the overall population of urban children. This data-driven, two-stage approach can be applied to other populations, exposures and outcomes to generate hypotheses within high-dimensional exposure data. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics

PubMed Central

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J. D.

2013-01-01

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced ‘susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed’ (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions. PMID:23676892

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.

PubMed

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J D

2013-07-06

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced 'susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed' (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions.

Application of Transtheoretical (Stages of Change) Model in Studying Attitudes and Behaviors of Adults with Hearing Loss: A Descriptive Review.

PubMed

Manchaiah, Vinaya; Hernandez, Barbara Michiels; Beck, Douglas L

2018-06-01

Health Behavior Change (HBC) refers to facilitating changes to habits and/or behaviors related to health. There are a number of models/theories of HBC, which provide a structured framework to better understand the HBCs of individuals. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM, aka "the Stages of Change" model) is an integrative model used to conceptualize the process of intentional behavior change and is applied to a variety of behaviors, populations, and settings. In the last few years, use of TTM by the profession of audiology has been increasing. This descriptive literature review was aimed at identifying and presenting a summary of research studies, which use TTM to study the attitudes and behaviors of adults with hearing loss. A literature review was conducted. This review included 13 empirical studies. A literature review was conducted using the EBSCOhost and included the databases Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO. The review suggests TTM is useful in studying the attitudes and behaviors of adults with hearing loss. There are positive associations between stages of change and help-seeking, intervention uptake, and hearing rehabilitation outcome (i.e., benefit and satisfaction). However, associations with intervention decisions and intervention use were not evident. It appears help-seeking, intervention uptake, and successful outcomes are usually displayed in people in the later stages of change as those with greater hearing loss are often in the later stages of change. Understanding the readiness toward help-seeking and uptake of intervention in people with hearing loss based on TTM may help clinicians develop more focused management strategies. However, additional longitudinal and interventional studies are needed to further test the predictive validity of the stages of change model. American Academy of Audiology.

Population Modeling Approach to Optimize Crop Harvest Strategy. The Case of Field Tomato.

PubMed

Tran, Dinh T; Hertog, Maarten L A T M; Tran, Thi L H; Quyen, Nguyen T; Van de Poel, Bram; Mata, Clara I; Nicolaï, Bart M

2017-01-01

In this study, the aim is to develop a population model based approach to optimize fruit harvesting strategies with regard to fruit quality and its derived economic value. This approach was applied to the case of tomato fruit harvesting under Vietnamese conditions. Fruit growth and development of tomato (cv. "Savior") was monitored in terms of fruit size and color during both the Vietnamese winter and summer growing seasons. A kinetic tomato fruit growth model was applied to quantify biological fruit-to-fruit variation in terms of their physiological maturation. This model was successfully calibrated. Finally, the model was extended to translate the fruit-to-fruit variation at harvest into the economic value of the harvested crop. It can be concluded that a model based approach to the optimization of harvest date and harvest frequency with regard to economic value of the crop as such is feasible. This approach allows growers to optimize their harvesting strategy by harvesting the crop at more uniform maturity stages meeting the stringent retail demands for homogeneous high quality product. The total farm profit would still depend on the impact a change in harvesting strategy might have on related expenditures. This model based harvest optimisation approach can be easily transferred to other fruit and vegetable crops improving homogeneity of the postharvest product streams.

Prognostic factors and disease-specific survival among immigrants diagnosed with cutaneous malignant melanoma in Sweden.

PubMed

Simberg-Danell, Caroline; Lyth, Johan; Månsson-Brahme, Eva; Frohm-Nilsson, Margareta; Carstensen, John; Hansson, Johan; Eriksson, Hanna

2016-08-01

Little is known about cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) among immigrants in Europe. We aimed to investigate clinical characteristics and disease-specific survival among first- and second-generation immigrants in Sweden. This nationwide population-based study included 27,235 patients from the Swedish Melanoma Register diagnosed with primary invasive CMM, 1990-2007. Data were linked to nationwide, population-based registers followed up through 2013. Logistic regression and Cox regression models were used to determine the association between immigrant status, stage and CMM prognosis, respectively. After adjustments for confounders, first generation immigrants from Southern Europe were associated with significantly more advanced stages of disease compared to Swedish-born patients [Stage II vs. I: Odds ratio (OR) = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.61-3.50. Stage III-IV vs I: OR = 2.40, 95% CI = 1.08-5.37]. The ORs of stage II-IV versus stage I disease were increased among men (OR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.1-3.3; p = 0.020), and women (OR = 4.8; 95% CI = 2.6-9.1; p < 0.001) in a subgroup of immigrants from former Yugoslavia compared to Swedish-born patients. The CMM-specific survival was significantly decreased among women from former Yugoslavia versus Swedish-born women [hazard ratio (HR)=2.2; 95% CI = 1.1-4.2; p = 0.043]. After additional adjustments including stage, the survival difference was no longer significant. No survival difference between the second generation immigrant group and Swedish-born patients were observed. In conclusion, a worse CMM-specific survival in women from former Yugoslavia was associated with more advanced stages of CMM at diagnosis. Secondary prevention efforts focusing on specific groups may be needed to further improve the CMM prognosis. © 2016 UICC.

How Much Can Remotely-Sensed Natural Resource Inventories Benefit from Finer Spatial Resolutions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Xu, Q.; McRoberts, R. E.; Ståhl, G.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

For remote sensing facilitated natural resource inventories, the effects of spatial resolution in the form of pixel size and the effects of subpixel information on estimates of population parameters were evaluated by comparing results obtained using Landsat 8 and RapidEye auxiliary imagery. The study area was in Burkina Faso, and the variable of interest was the stem volume (m3/ha) convertible to the woodland aboveground biomass. A sample consisting of 160 field plots was selected and measured from the population following a two-stage sampling design. Models were fit using weighted least squares; the population mean, mu, and the variance of the estimator of the population mean, Var(mu.hat), were estimated in two inferential frameworks, model-based and model-assisted, and compared; for each framework, Var(mu.hat) was estimated both analytically and empirically. Empirical variances were estimated with bootstrapping that for resampling takes clustering effects into account. The primary results were twofold. First, for the effects of spatial resolution and subpixel information, four conclusions are relevant: (1) finer spatial resolution imagery indeed contributes to greater precision for estimators of population parameter, but this increase is slight at a maximum rate of 20% considering that RapidEye data are 36 times finer resolution than Landsat 8 data; (2) subpixel information on texture is marginally beneficial when it comes to making inference for population of large areas; (3) cost-effectiveness is more favorable for the free of charge Landsat 8 imagery than RapidEye imagery; and (4) for a given plot size, candidate remote sensing auxiliary datasets are more cost-effective when their spatial resolutions are similar to the plot size than with much finer alternatives. Second, for the comparison between estimators, three conclusions are relevant: (1) model-based variance estimates are consistent with each other and about half as large as stabilized model-assisted estimates, suggesting superior effectiveness of model-based inference to model-assisted inference; (2) bootstrapping is an effective alternative to analytical variance estimators; and (3) prediction accuracy expressed by RMSE is useful for screening candidate models to be used for population inferences.

Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

2012-01-01

Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development. Methods A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age ≥55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death. Results The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90). Conclusions This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials. PMID:20433705

Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model.

PubMed

Furiak, Nicolas M; Klein, Robert W; Kahle-Wrobleski, Kristin; Siemers, Eric R; Sarpong, Eric; Klein, Timothy M

2010-04-30

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development. A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age > or =55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death. The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90). This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.

A type 2 diabetes prevention website for african americans, Caucasians, and mexican americans: formative evaluation.

PubMed

Reininger, Belinda; Mecca, Laurel Person; Stine, Kendra M; Schultz, Kevan; Ling, Luke; Halpern, David

2013-07-11

The majority of Americans now access the Internet, thereby expanding prospects for Web-based health-related education and intervention. However, there remains a digital divide among those with lower income and education, and among Spanish-speaking populations in the United States. Additional concerns are the low eHealth literacy rate among these populations and their interest in Internet-delivered interventions with these components. Given these factors, combined with the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among low socioeconomic status and Spanish-speaking Americans, strides need to be taken to reach these populations with online tools for diabetes prevention and management that are at once accessible and efficacious. Using a formative evaluation of an eHealth diabetes prevention and control website, we tested the extent to which African Americans, Caucasians, and Mexican Americans at risk for type 2 diabetes gained knowledge and intended to modify their dietary intake and physical activity subsequent to viewing the website. We also examined their general Internet use patterns related to type 2 diabetes. A mixed methods approach was undertaken. The diabetes prevention and control website provided educational and behavioral change information in English and Spanish. For this study, eligible participants (1) completed a prequantitative survey, (2) interacted with the website, (3) completed a qualitative interview, and (4) completed a postquantitative survey. After finding a significant differences in posttest diabetes knowledge scores (P<.001), a regression analysis controlling for pretest score, health literacy, ethnicity, Transtheoretical Model Stage for exercise and fruit and vegetable consumption, and Internet literacy was conducted. Internet literacy score (P=.04) and fruit and vegetable consumption stage (P<.001) were significantly associated with posttest scores indicating that those in precontemplation stage and with low Internet literacy scores were less likely to show improved diabetes knowledge scores. We found significant difference in posttest intention to eat a healthy diet each day in the next 2 months after controlling for pretest score, health literacy, ethnicity, Transtheoretical Model Stage for fruit and vegetable consumption and Internet literacy. Those in the Action stage of the Transtheoretical model for exercise were significantly less likely (P=.023) to improve the posttest score for intention to eat a healthy diet compared to those in the Preparation stage for exercise. We also found that health information is sought commonly across ethnic groups, but that diabetes-related information is less commonly sought even among those at risk. Other specific ethnic usage patterns were identified in the qualitative data including content sought on Web searches and technology used to access the Internet. This study provides in-depth qualitative insight into the seeking, access, and use of Web-based health information across three ethnic groups in two languages. Additionally, it provides evidence from pre-post measures of exposure to Web-based health content and related changes in diabetes knowledge and intention to eat a healthy diet.

Estimation of mortality for stage-structured zooplankton populations: What is to be done?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, Mark D.

2012-05-01

Estimation of zooplankton mortality rates in field populations is a challenging task that some contend is inherently intractable. This paper examines several of the objections that are commonly raised to efforts to estimate mortality. We find that there are circumstances in the field where it is possible to sequentially sample the same population and to resolve biologically caused mortality, albeit with error. Precision can be improved with sampling directed by knowledge of the physical structure of the water column, combined with adequate sample replication. Intercalibration of sampling methods can make it possible to sample across the life history in a quantitative manner. Rates of development can be constrained by laboratory-based estimates of stage durations from temperature- and food-dependent functions, mesocosm studies of molting rates, or approximation of development rates from growth rates, combined with the vertical distributions of organisms in relation to food and temperature gradients. Careful design of field studies guided by the assumptions of specific estimation models can lead to satisfactory mortality estimates, but model uncertainty also needs to be quantified. We highlight additional issues requiring attention to further advance the field, including the need for linked cooperative studies of the rates and causes of mortality of co-occurring holozooplankton and ichthyoplankton.

Impact of education on interdental cleaning behaviour based on the transtheoretical model.

PubMed

Hashemian, Masomeh; Fallahi, Arezoo; Tavakoli, Golaleh; Zarezadeh, Yadolah; Babaki, B Nemat; Rahaei, Zohreh

2012-01-01

To determine the impact of education on stages of change of behaviour in Iranian senior high school students for interdental cleaning based on the transtheoretical model. This experimental study took place from April to November 2010. 306 students were selected by multistage cluster sampling and placed into two groups: control (153 students) and intervention (153 students). Appropriate instruments and the intervention programme were designed with the purpose of improving stages of interdental cleaning behaviour, perceived benefits and self-efficacy, as well as reducing perceived barriers and gingival index (GI). The impact of the intervention programme was assessed after 24 weeks and the GI of each student was recorded for both groups before and after intervention. The data were analysed using SPSS software and the chi-square, t test, ANOVA, paired t test, Mann-Whitney U-test and sign test. The intervention had a significant, positive impact on improvement of the stages of interdental cleaning behaviour, increase in self-efficacy, perceived benefits, decrease in perceived barriers and improvement of GI (P < 0.001). After the intervention, the average grades of self-efficacy, perceived barriers and perceived benefits in the control group vs the intervention group were significantly different (P < 0.001 to 0.01). The programme was found to positively influence the stages of change and potential indicators of interdental cleaning behaviour and GI. It is suggested that this model be used for interventions in the other population groups.

Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Intensive anti-malaria campaigns targeting the Anopheles population have demonstrated substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Understanding the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes throughout their whole lifecycle is important to assess the likely impact of vector control interventions alone and in combination as well as to aid the design of novel interventions. Methods An ecological model of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato populations incorporating a rainfall-dependent carrying capacity and density-dependent regulation of mosquito larvae in breeding sites is developed. The model is fitted to adult mosquito catch and rainfall data from 8 villages in the Garki District of Nigeria (the 'Garki Project') using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and prior estimates of parameters derived from the literature. The model is used to compare the impact of vector control interventions directed against adult mosquito stages - long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS) - and directed against aquatic mosquito stages, alone and in combination on adult mosquito density. Results A model in which density-dependent regulation occurs in the larval stages via a linear association between larval density and larval death rates provided a good fit to seasonal adult mosquito catches. The effective mosquito reproduction number in the presence of density-dependent regulation is dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns and peaks at the start of the rainy season. In addition to killing adult mosquitoes during the extrinsic incubation period, LLINs and IRS also result in less eggs being oviposited in breeding sites leading to further reductions in adult mosquito density. Combining interventions such as the application of larvicidal or pupacidal agents that target the aquatic stages of the mosquito lifecycle with LLINs or IRS can lead to substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Conclusions Density-dependent regulation of anopheline larvae in breeding sites ensures robust, stable mosquito populations that can persist in the face of intensive vector control interventions. Selecting combinations of interventions that target different stages in the vector's lifecycle will result in maximum reductions in mosquito density. PMID:21798055

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hepler, K.R.; Hansen, P.A.; Bernard, D.R.

Five emigrating populations of Dolly Varden and cutthroat trout were intercepted in 1989-1991 during seaward migration to Prince William Sound following the Exxon Valdez oil spill; two into the spill area, three into non-spill areas. Study populations were comprised of tagged adults and subadults. Survival rates were estimated with log-linear models of capture histories of tagged fish. We used a two-stage simulation based on bootstrapping and Monte Carlo techniques to compare average survival rates in study populations that were and were not associated with spilled oil. Growth and survival rates were significantly lower in study populations associated with spilled oil.more » Results are consistent with the occurrence of a deleterious impact on growth and survival of emigrating species, although unable to be confirmed as results emanated from observation, not experiment.« less

Effects of developmental variability on the dynamics and self-organization of cell populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhakara, Kaumudi H.; Gholami, Azam; Zykov, Vladimir S.; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2017-11-01

We report experimental and theoretical results for spatiotemporal pattern formation in cell populations, where the parameters vary in space and time due to mechanisms intrinsic to the system, namely Dictyostelium discoideum (D.d.) in the starvation phase. We find that different patterns are formed when the populations are initialized at different developmental stages, or when populations at different initial developmental stages are mixed. The experimentally observed patterns can be understood with a modified Kessler-Levine model that takes into account the initial spatial heterogeneity of the cell populations and a developmental path introduced by us, i.e. the time dependence of the various biochemical parameters. The dynamics of the parameters agree with known biochemical studies. Most importantly, the modified model reproduces not only our results, but also the observations of an independent experiment published earlier. This shows that pattern formation can be used to understand and quantify the temporal evolution of the system parameters.

Febuxostat in the management of gout: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Smolen, Lee J; Gahn, James C; Mitri, Ghaith; Shiozawa, Aki

2016-01-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of febuxostat vs allopurinol for the management of gout. A stochastic microsimulation cost-effectiveness model with a US private-payer perspective and 5-year time horizon was developed. Model flow based on guideline and real-world treatment paradigms incorporated gout flare, serum uric acid (sUA) testing, treatment titration, discontinuation, and adverse events, chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and progression, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence. Outcomes were estimated for the general gout population and for gout patients with CKD stages 3/4. Modeled treatment interventions were daily oral febuxostat 40-80 mg and allopurinol 100-300 mg. Baseline patient characteristics were taken from epidemiologic studies, efficacy data from randomized controlled trials, adverse event rates from package inserts, and costs from the literature, government sources, and expert opinion. Eight clinically-relevant incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated: per patient reaching target sUA, per flare avoided, per CKD incidence, progression, stages 3/4 progression, and stage 5 progression avoided, per incident T2DM avoided, and per death avoided. Five-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the general gout population were $5377 per patient reaching target sUA, $1773 per flare avoided, $221,795 per incident CKD avoided, $29,063 per CKD progression avoided, $36,018 per progression to CKD 3/4 avoided, $71,426 per progression to CKD 5 avoided, $214,277 per incident T2DM avoided, and $217,971 per death avoided. In patients with CKD 3/4, febuxostat dominated allopurinol for all cost-effectiveness outcome measures. Febuxostat may be a cost-effective alternative to allopurinol, especially for patients with CKD stages 3 or 4.

Improved survival time: what can survival cure models tell us about population-based survival improvements in late-stage colorectal, ovarian, and testicular cancer?

PubMed

Huang, Lan; Cronin, Kathleen A; Johnson, Karen A; Mariotto, Angela B; Feuer, Eric J

2008-05-15

The objective of the current study was to investigate the long-term impact of treatment advances on the survival of patients with late-stage ovarian, colorectal (American Joint Committee on Cancer stage III, men), and testicular cancers by estimating the increase in the percentage cured from their disease and the change in survival time of uncured patients. Cause-specific survival data from 1973 to 2000 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Survival cure models were fit and were used to estimate the gain in life expectancy (GLE) attributed to an increase in the fraction of cured patients and to prolonged survival among noncured patients. Treatment improvement for ovarian cancer resulted in a total GLE of 2 years, and 80% of that GLE was because of an extension of survival time in uncured patients (from 0.9 years to 2.1 years) rather than an increased cure fraction (from 12% to 14%). In contrast, the cure rate rose from 29% to 47% for colorectal cancer, representing 82% of a 2.8-year GLE, and from 23% to 81% for testicular cancer, representing 100% of a 24-year GLE. The current results suggested that treatment benefits for testicular and colorectal cancer in men with late-stage disease primarily are the result of increases in cure fraction, whereas survival gains for ovarian cancer occur despite persisting disease. Cure models, in combination with population-level data, provide insight into how treatment advances are changing survival and ultimately impacting mortality. Survival patterns reflect the underlying biology of response to cancer treatment and suggest promising directions for future research.

Postdispersal seed predation limits the abundance of a long-lived perennial forb (Lithospermum ruderale).

PubMed

Bricker, Mary; Maron, John

2012-03-01

Loss of seeds to consumers is common in plant communities, but the degree to which these losses influence plant abundance or population growth is often unclear. This is particularly the case for postdispersal seed predation by rodents, as most studies of rodent seed predation have focused on the sources of spatiotemporal variation in seed loss but not quantified the population consequences of this loss. In previous work we showed that seed predation by deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) substantially reduced seedling recruitment and establishment of Lithospermum ruderale (Boraginaceae), a long-lived perennial forb. To shed light on how rodent seed predation and the near-term effects on plant recruitment might influence longer-term patterns of L. ruderale population growth, we combined experimental results with demographic data in stage-based population models. Model outputs revealed that rodent seed predation had a significant impact on L. ruderale population growth rate (lambda). With the removal of postdispersal seed predation, the projected population growth rates increased between 0.06 and 0.12, depending on site (mean deltalambda across sites = 0.08). Seed predation shifted the projected stable stage distribution of populations from one with a high proportion of young plants to one in which larger adult size classes dominate. Elasticities of vital rates also changed, with germination and growth of seedlings and young plants becoming more important with the removal of seed predation. Simulations varying the magnitude of seed predation pressure while holding other vital rates constant showed that seed predation could lower lambda even if only 40% of available seeds were consumed. These results demonstrate that rodent granivory can be a potent force limiting the abundance of a long-lived perennial forb.

A discrimination index for selecting markers of tumor growth dynamic across multiple cancer studies with a cure fraction.

PubMed

Rouam, Sigrid; Broët, Philippe

2013-08-01

To identify genomic markers with consistent effect on tumor dynamics across multiple cancer series, discrimination indices based on proportional hazards models can be used since they do not depend heavily on the sample size. However, the underlying assumption of proportionality of the hazards does not always hold, especially when the studied population is a mixture of cured and uncured patients, like in early-stage cancers. We propose a novel index that quantifies the capability of a genomic marker to separate uncured patients, according to their time-to-event outcomes. It allows to identify genomic markers characterizing tumor growth dynamic across multiple studies. Simulation results show that our index performs better than classical indices based on the Cox model. It is neither affected by the sample size nor the cure rate fraction. In a cross-study of early-stage breast cancers, the index allows to select genomic markers with a potential consistent effect on tumor growth dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demographic matrix model for informing swallow-wort (Vincetoxicum spp.) biological control

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption (weak links) by biological control and/or other control tactics. Therefore, t...

Multiple Imputation in Two-Stage Cluster Samples Using The Weighted Finite Population Bayesian Bootstrap.

PubMed

Zhou, Hanzhi; Elliott, Michael R; Raghunathan, Trivellore E

2016-06-01

Multistage sampling is often employed in survey samples for cost and convenience. However, accounting for clustering features when generating datasets for multiple imputation is a nontrivial task, particularly when, as is often the case, cluster sampling is accompanied by unequal probabilities of selection, necessitating case weights. Thus, multiple imputation often ignores complex sample designs and assumes simple random sampling when generating imputations, even though failing to account for complex sample design features is known to yield biased estimates and confidence intervals that have incorrect nominal coverage. In this article, we extend a recently developed, weighted, finite-population Bayesian bootstrap procedure to generate synthetic populations conditional on complex sample design data that can be treated as simple random samples at the imputation stage, obviating the need to directly model design features for imputation. We develop two forms of this method: one where the probabilities of selection are known at the first and second stages of the design, and the other, more common in public use files, where only the final weight based on the product of the two probabilities is known. We show that this method has advantages in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage properties over methods where sample designs are ignored, with little loss in efficiency, even when compared with correct fully parametric models. An application is made using the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System, a multistage, unequal probability sample of U.S. passenger vehicle crashes, which suffers from a substantial amount of missing data in "Delta-V," a key crash severity measure.

Multiple Imputation in Two-Stage Cluster Samples Using The Weighted Finite Population Bayesian Bootstrap

PubMed Central

Zhou, Hanzhi; Elliott, Michael R.; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.

2017-01-01

Multistage sampling is often employed in survey samples for cost and convenience. However, accounting for clustering features when generating datasets for multiple imputation is a nontrivial task, particularly when, as is often the case, cluster sampling is accompanied by unequal probabilities of selection, necessitating case weights. Thus, multiple imputation often ignores complex sample designs and assumes simple random sampling when generating imputations, even though failing to account for complex sample design features is known to yield biased estimates and confidence intervals that have incorrect nominal coverage. In this article, we extend a recently developed, weighted, finite-population Bayesian bootstrap procedure to generate synthetic populations conditional on complex sample design data that can be treated as simple random samples at the imputation stage, obviating the need to directly model design features for imputation. We develop two forms of this method: one where the probabilities of selection are known at the first and second stages of the design, and the other, more common in public use files, where only the final weight based on the product of the two probabilities is known. We show that this method has advantages in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage properties over methods where sample designs are ignored, with little loss in efficiency, even when compared with correct fully parametric models. An application is made using the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System, a multistage, unequal probability sample of U.S. passenger vehicle crashes, which suffers from a substantial amount of missing data in “Delta-V,” a key crash severity measure. PMID:29226161

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach.

PubMed

López, Leonardo; Burguerner, Germán; Giovanini, Leonardo

2014-04-12

The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. An epidemic is characterized trough an individual-based-model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease.

Cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance imaging with a new contrast agent for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Biasutti, Maria; Dufour, Natacha; Ferroud, Clotilde; Dab, William; Temime, Laura

2012-01-01

Used as contrast agents for brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), markers for beta-amyloid deposits might allow early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of such a diagnostic test, MRI+CLP (contrastophore-linker-pharmacophore), should it become clinically available. We compared the cost-effectiveness of MRI+CLP to that of standard diagnosis using currently available cognition tests and of standard MRI, and investigated the impact of a hypothetical treatment efficient in early AD. The primary analysis was based on the current French context for 70-year-old patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). In alternative "screen and treat" scenarios, we analyzed the consequences of systematic screenings of over-60 individuals (either population-wide or restricted to the ApoE4 genotype population). We used a Markov model of AD progression; model parameters, as well as incurred costs and quality-of-life weights in France were taken from the literature. We performed univariate and probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analyses. The base-case preferred strategy was the standard MRI diagnosis strategy. In the primary analysis however, MRI+CLP could become the preferred strategy under a wide array of scenarios involving lower cost and/or higher sensitivity or specificity. By contrast, in the "screen and treat" analyses, the probability of MRI+CLP becoming the preferred strategy remained lower than 5%. It is thought that anti-beta-amyloid compounds might halt the development of dementia in early stage patients. This study suggests that, even should such treatments become available, systematically screening the over-60 population for AD would only become cost-effective with highly specific tests able to diagnose early stages of the disease. However, offering a new diagnostic test based on beta-amyloid markers to elderly patients with MCI might prove cost-effective.

Genetically distinct leukemic stem cells in human CD34− acute myeloid leukemia are arrested at a hemopoietic precursor-like stage

PubMed Central

Quek, Lynn; Garnett, Catherine; Karamitros, Dimitris; Stoilova, Bilyana; Doondeea, Jessica; Kennedy, Alison; Metzner, Marlen; Ivey, Adam; Sternberg, Alexander; Hunter, Hannah; Price, Andrew; Virgo, Paul; Grimwade, David; Freeman, Sylvie; Russell, Nigel; Mead, Adam

2016-01-01

Our understanding of the perturbation of normal cellular differentiation hierarchies to create tumor-propagating stem cell populations is incomplete. In human acute myeloid leukemia (AML), current models suggest transformation creates leukemic stem cell (LSC) populations arrested at a progenitor-like stage expressing cell surface CD34. We show that in ∼25% of AML, with a distinct genetic mutation pattern where >98% of cells are CD34−, there are multiple, nonhierarchically arranged CD34+ and CD34− LSC populations. Within CD34− and CD34+ LSC–containing populations, LSC frequencies are similar; there are shared clonal structures and near-identical transcriptional signatures. CD34− LSCs have disordered global transcription profiles, but these profiles are enriched for transcriptional signatures of normal CD34− mature granulocyte–macrophage precursors, downstream of progenitors. But unlike mature precursors, LSCs express multiple normal stem cell transcriptional regulators previously implicated in LSC function. This suggests a new refined model of the relationship between LSCs and normal hemopoiesis in which the nature of genetic/epigenetic changes determines the disordered transcriptional program, resulting in LSC differentiation arrest at stages that are most like either progenitor or precursor stages of hemopoiesis. PMID:27377587

The variability of lower third molar development in Northeast Malaysian population with application to age estimation.

PubMed

Johan, N A; Khamis, M F; Abdul Jamal, N Sk; Ahmad, B; Mahanani, E S

2012-07-01

This study aimed to assess the variability of the lower third molar (tooth 38 and 48) development in Northeast Malaysian population with respect to the side of dentition, to generate age prediction models and to compare the outcome with other studies. A total of 1080 orthopantomograms of Northeast Malaysian population aged between 14 and 25 years (540 males and 540 females) from the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia's archive which met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were selected and the maturity stages of tooth 38 and 48 were scored using Demirjian's stages (A-H). The findings showed a wide variation of the development of lower third molars in the Northeast Malaysian population. The roots developed earlier in males than in females. The development of the dentition on opposite sides of the mandible was synchronously in females and males. A multiple regression analysis shows that 71.1% of variance in age was explained by sex and developmental stage of tooth 48. An age prediction model was generated from the regression analysis: [Age = 7.117 + 1.907*(stage of tooth 48) - 0.432*(sex)] with mean prediction errors between -0.17 to 3.14 years. The obtained data in the current study are useful for references and determining age of unidentified human remains for identification investigation.

Control of diabetes and fibrinogen levels as well as improvement in health care might delay low cognitive performance in societies aging progressively.

PubMed

Lopes, Daniele Almeida; Moraes, Suzana Alves de; Freitas, Isabel Cristina Martins de

2015-01-01

To know the prevalence and factors associated to low cognitive performance in a representative sample of the adult population in a society aging progressively. Cross-sectional population-based study carried out in a three-stage sampling: 81 census tracts (primary sampling unity) were randomly selected, followed by 1,672 households and 2,471 participants (weighted sample) corresponding to the second and third stages, respectively. The outcome prevalence was calculated according sociodemographic, behavioral and health related variables. Crude and adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated using Poisson regression. The prevalence of low cognitive performance was high, mainly among females, and indicated linear trends into categories of age, schooling, income, plasma fibrinogen and self-reported health status. In multivariate models, gender, diabetes, fibrinogen and self-reported health status presented positive associations, while schooling, employment and sitting time presented negative associations with the outcome. Interventions related to diabetes and fibrinogen levels control as well as improvement in health care might delay low cognitive performance in societies aging progressively as such the study population.

A parasitism-mutualism-predation model consisting of crows, cuckoos and cats with stage-structure and maturation delays on crows and cuckoos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, Yantao; Zhang, Long; Teng, Zhidong; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2018-01-01

In this paper, a parasitism-mutualism-predation model is proposed to investigate the dynamics of multi-interactions among cuckoos, crows and cats with stage-structure and maturation time delays on cuckoos and crows. The crows permit the cuckoos to parasitize their nestlings (eggs) on the crow chicks (eggs). In return, the cuckoo nestlings produce a malodorous cloacal secretion to protect the crow chicks from predation by the cats, which is apparently beneficial to both the crow and cuckoo population. The multi-interactions, i.e., parasitism and mutualism between the cuckoos (nestlings) and crows (chicks), predation between the cats and crow chicks are modeled both by Holling-type II and Beddington-DeAngelis-type functional responses. The existence of positive equilibria of three subsystems of the model are discussed. The criteria for the global stability of the trivial equilibrium are established by the Krein-Rutman Theorem and other analysis methods. Moreover, the threshold dynamics for the coexistence and weak persistence of the model are obtained, and we show, both analytically and numerically, that the stabilities of the interior equilibria may change with the increasing maturation time delays. We find there exists an evident difference in the dynamical properties of the parasitism-mutualism-predation model based on whether or not we consider the effects of stage-structure and maturation time delays on cuckoos and crows. Inclusion of stage structure results in many varied dynamical complexities which are difficult to encompass without this inclusion.

Interventional differences among Huntington's disease patients by disease progression in commercial and medicaid populations.

PubMed

Anderson, Karen E; Divino, Victoria; DeKoven, Mitch; Langbehn, Douglas; Warner, John H; Giuliano, Joseph; Lee, Won Chan

2014-01-01

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that spans distinct disease stages over 15-20 years. Various interventions are available which may allow patients to live outside of a nursing home for a longer time. However, little is known about use of these interventions by disease stage and by insurance type. We compared use of interventions among early, middle and late stages of HD in commercial (C) and Medicaid (M) health insurance populations. HD patients (ICD-9-CM 333.4) were identified from Thomson Reuters' MarketScan C and M database (2002-2009) and hierarchically grouped into disease stages based upon the presence of defining clinical markers. A total of 1,272 HD patients (752/520 C/M) were identified. While stage distribution was nearly uniform in the C database - 34.0/35.5/34.0% (early/middle/late stage) - in the M population the majority were late stage (74.0%). Overall mean age was similar between C and M populations. Among late-stage patients, more M patients resided in a nursing home (M:73.8% v. C:40.6%) and received hospice care (M:18.4% v. C:11.3%). Physical therapy (PT) and home assistance were the most frequent interventions used by middle-stage patients, however more C patients received PT (C:64.0% v. M:37.1%) while more M patients received home assistance (M:75.3% v. C:53.2%). Among late-stage patients, PT was also higher in the C population (56.3% v. 48.3%). More M patients had assistive devices at home in both middle (M:25.8% v. C:9.7%) and late stages (M:35.6% v.C:23.4%). Apparent interventional differences emerged which varied by disease stage and insurance type.

High Interannual Variability in Connectivity and Genetic Pool of a Temperate Clingfish Matches Oceanographic Transport Predictions

PubMed Central

Teixeira, Sara; Assis, Jorge; Serrão, Ester A.; Gonçalves, Emanuel J.; Borges, Rita

2016-01-01

Adults of most marine benthic and demersal fish are site-attached, with the dispersal of their larval stages ensuring connectivity among populations. In this study we aimed to infer spatial and temporal variation in population connectivity and dispersal of a marine fish species, using genetic tools and comparing these with oceanographic transport. We focused on an intertidal rocky reef fish species, the shore clingfish Lepadogaster lepadogaster, along the southwest Iberian Peninsula, in 2011 and 2012. We predicted high levels of self-recruitment and distinct populations, due to short pelagic larval duration and because all its developmental stages have previously been found near adult habitats. Genetic analyses based on microsatellites countered our prediction and a biophysical dispersal model showed that oceanographic transport was a good explanation for the patterns observed. Adult sub-populations separated by up to 300 km of coastline displayed no genetic differentiation, revealing a single connected population with larvae potentially dispersing long distances over hundreds of km. Despite this, parentage analysis performed on recruits from one focal site within the Marine Park of Arrábida (Portugal), revealed self-recruitment levels of 2.5% and 7.7% in 2011 and 2012, respectively, suggesting that both long- and short-distance dispersal play an important role in the replenishment of these populations. Population differentiation and patterns of dispersal, which were highly variable between years, could be linked to the variability inherent in local oceanographic processes. Overall, our measures of connectivity based on genetic and oceanographic data highlight the relevance of long-distance dispersal in determining the degree of connectivity, even in species with short pelagic larval durations. PMID:27911952

Evaluating aggregate effects of rare and common variants in the 1000 Genomes Project exon sequencing data using latent variable structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Nock, Nl; Zhang, Lx

2011-11-29

Methods that can evaluate aggregate effects of rare and common variants are limited. Therefore, we applied a two-stage approach to evaluate aggregate gene effects in the 1000 Genomes Project data, which contain 24,487 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 697 unrelated individuals from 7 populations. In stage 1, we identified potentially interesting genes (PIGs) as those having at least one SNP meeting Bonferroni correction using univariate, multiple regression models. In stage 2, we evaluate aggregate PIG effects on trait, Q1, by modeling each gene as a latent construct, which is defined by multiple common and rare variants, using the multivariate statistical framework of structural equation modeling (SEM). In stage 1, we found that PIGs varied markedly between a randomly selected replicate (replicate 137) and 100 other replicates, with the exception of FLT1. In stage 1, collapsing rare variants decreased false positives but increased false negatives. In stage 2, we developed a good-fitting SEM model that included all nine genes simulated to affect Q1 (FLT1, KDR, ARNT, ELAV4, FLT4, HIF1A, HIF3A, VEGFA, VEGFC) and found that FLT1 had the largest effect on Q1 (βstd = 0.33 ± 0.05). Using replicate 137 estimates as population values, we found that the mean relative bias in the parameters (loadings, paths, residuals) and their standard errors across 100 replicates was on average, less than 5%. Our latent variable SEM approach provides a viable framework for modeling aggregate effects of rare and common variants in multiple genes, but more elegant methods are needed in stage 1 to minimize type I and type II error.

Strain memory of 2D and 3D rigid inclusion populations in viscous flows - What is clast SPO telling us?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahr, Donald W.; Law, Richard D.

2014-11-01

We model the development of shape preferred orientation (SPO) of a large population of two- and three-dimensional (2D and 3D) rigid clasts suspended in a linear viscous matrix deformed by superposed steady and continuously non-steady plane strain flows to investigate the sensitivity of clasts to changing boundary conditions during a single or superposed deformation events. Resultant clast SPOs are compared to one developed by an identical initial population that experienced a steady flow history of constant kinematic vorticity and reached an identical finite strain state, allowing examination of SPO sensitivity to deformation path. Rotation paths of individual triaxial inclusions are complex, even for steady plane strain flow histories. It has been suggested that the 3D nature of the system renders predictions based on 2D models inadequate for applied clast-based kinematic vorticity gauges. We demonstrate that for a large population of clasts, simplification to a 2D model does provide a good approximation to the SPO predicted by full 3D analysis for steady and non-steady plane strain deformation paths. Predictions of shape fabric development from 2D models are not only qualitatively similar to the more complex 3D analysis, but they display the same limitations of techniques based on clast SPO commonly used as a quantitative kinematic vorticity gauge. Our model results from steady, superposed, and non-steady flow histories with a significant pure shearing component at a wide range of finite strain resemble predictions for an identical initial population that experienced a single steady simple shearing deformation. We conclude that individual 2D and 3D clasts respond instantaneously to changes in boundary conditions, however, in aggregate, the SPO of a population of rigid inclusions does not reflect the late-stage kinematics of deformation, nor is it an indicator of the unique 'mean' kinematic vorticity experienced by a deformed rock volume.

Burnout among U.S. medical students, residents, and early career physicians relative to the general U.S. population.

PubMed

Dyrbye, Liselotte N; West, Colin P; Satele, Daniel; Boone, Sonja; Tan, Litjen; Sloan, Jeff; Shanafelt, Tait D

2014-03-01

To compare the prevalence of burnout and other forms of distress across career stages and the experiences of trainees and early career (EC) physicians versus those of similarly aged college graduates pursuing other careers. In 2011 and 2012, the authors conducted a national survey of medical students, residents/fellows, and EC physicians (≤ 5 years in practice) and of a probability-based sample of the general U.S. population. All surveys assessed burnout, symptoms of depression and suicidal ideation, quality of life, and fatigue. Response rates were 35.2% (4,402/12,500) for medical students, 22.5% (1,701/7,560) for residents/fellows, and 26.7% (7,288/27,276) for EC physicians. In multivariate models that controlled for relationship status, sex, age, and career stage, being a resident/fellow was associated with increased odds of burnout and being a medical student with increased odds of depressive symptoms, whereas EC physicians had the lowest odds of high fatigue. Compared with the population control samples, medical students, residents/fellows, and EC physicians were more likely to be burned out (all P < .0001). Medical students and residents/fellows were more likely to exhibit symptoms of depression than the population control samples (both P < .0001) but not more likely to have experienced recent suicidal ideation. Training appears to be the peak time for distress among physicians, but differences in the prevalence of burnout, depressive symptoms, and recent suicidal ideation are relatively small. At each stage, burnout is more prevalent among physicians than among their peers in the U.S. population.

Estimation of the optimal number of radiotherapy fractions for breast cancer: A review of the evidence.

PubMed

Wong, Karen; Delaney, Geoff P; Barton, Michael B

2015-08-01

There is variation in radiotherapy fractionation practice, however, there is no evidence-based benchmark for appropriate activity. An evidence-based model was constructed to estimate the optimal number of fractions for the first course of radiotherapy for breast cancer to aid in services planning and performance benchmarking. The published breast cancer radiotherapy utilisation model was adapted. Evidence-based number of fractions was added to each radiotherapy indication. The overall optimal number of fractions was calculated based on the frequency of specific clinical conditions where radiotherapy is indicated and the recommended number of fractions for each condition. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of uncertainties on the model. For the entire Australian breast cancer patient population, the estimated optimal number of fractions per patient was 16.8, 14.6, 13.7 and 0.8 for ductal carcinoma in situ, early, advanced and metastatic breast cancer respectively. Overall, the optimal number of fractions per patient was 14.4 (range 14.4-18.7). These results allow comparison with actual practices, and workload prediction to aid in services planning. The model can be easily adapted to other countries by inserting population-specific epidemiological data, and to future changes in cancer incidence, stage distribution and fractionation recommendations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regression analysis on the variation in efficiency frontiers for prevention stage of HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Kamae, Maki S; Kamae, Isao; Cohen, Joshua T; Neumann, Peter J

2011-01-01

To investigate how the cost effectiveness of preventing HIV/AIDS varies across possible efficiency frontiers (EFs) by taking into account potentially relevant external factors, such as prevention stage, and how the EFs can be characterized using regression analysis given uncertainty of the QALY-cost estimates. We reviewed cost-effectiveness estimates for the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS published from 2002-2007 and catalogued in the Tufts Medical Center Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry. We constructed efficiency frontier (EF) curves by plotting QALYs against costs, using methods used by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) in Germany. We stratified the QALY-cost ratios by prevention stage, country of study, and payer perspective, and estimated EF equations using log and square-root models. A total of 53 QALY-cost ratios were identified for HIV/AIDS in the Tufts CEA Registry. Plotted ratios stratified by prevention stage were visually grouped into a cluster consisting of primary/secondary prevention measures and a cluster consisting of tertiary measures. Correlation coefficients for each cluster were statistically significant. For each cluster, we derived two EF equations - one based on the log model, and one based on the square-root model. Our findings indicate that stratification of HIV/AIDS interventions by prevention stage can yield distinct EFs, and that the correlation and regression analyses are useful for parametrically characterizing EF equations. Our study has certain limitations, such as the small number of included articles and the potential for study populations to be non-representative of countries of interest. Nonetheless, our approach could help develop a deeper appreciation of cost effectiveness beyond the deterministic approach developed by IQWiG.

Asian Versus Non-Asian Outcomes in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A North American Population-based Analysis.

PubMed

Hamilton, Sarah N; Ho, Cheryl; Laskin, Janessa; Zhai, Yongliang; Mak, Paul; Wu, Jonn

2016-12-01

The effect of ethnicity on nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) outcomes is unclear. This retrospective analysis examines survival and the impact of concurrent chemoradiation (chemoRT) among Asian and non-Asian patients. Subjects included 380 consecutive patients with NPC treated at a Canadian institution from 2000 to 2009. Five-year Kaplan-Meier progression-free survival (PFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and overall survival (OS) were compared between Asian (n=279) and non-Asian (n=101) subjects. Multivariable analysis was performed using Cox regression modeling. Two-variable interaction terms with concurrent chemoRT were used to examine whether concurrent chemoRT conferred different effects among subgroups. Asian subjects presented with earlier stage (P=0.005), were younger, had better performance status, and were less likely smokers (all P<0.001). Survival among Asian versus non-Asian subjects with stage I/II NPC were: PFS 68% versus 59% (P=0.04), DSS 87% versus 77% (P=0.08), and OS 84% versus 74% (P=0.003). Corresponding rates with stage III/IVA/IVB disease were PFS 49% versus 42% (P=0.12), DSS 72% versus 46% (P=0.001), and OS 70% versus 44% (P<0.001). On multivariable analysis, Asian ethnicity, age below 65 years, ECOG performance status 0-1, early stage, staging MRI use, and concurrent chemoRT were associated with improved DSS and OS (P<0.05). On testing interactions with concurrent chemoRT, Asian versus non-Asian ethnicity was significant (hazard ratio 3.9), suggesting that concurrent chemoRT conferred more benefit among non-Asian compared with Asian subjects. In this population-based study, Asian ethnicity was associated with improved DSS and OS. Concurrent chemoRT conferred more benefit among non-Asian compared with Asian subjects.

Comparative Effectiveness of Transarterial Embolization and Sorafenib for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Kwan, Sharon W; Harris, William P; Gold, Laura S; Hebert, Paul L

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the clinical effectiveness of embolization with that of sorafenib in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma as practiced in real-world settings. This population-based observational study was conducted with the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database. Patients 65 years old and older with a diagnosis of primary liver cancer between 2007 and 2011 who underwent embolization or sorafenib treatment were identified. Patients were excluded if they had insufficient claims records, a diagnosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, or other primary cancer or had undergone liver transplant or combination therapy. The primary outcome of interest was overall survival. Inverse probability of treatment weighting models were used to control for selection bias. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were met by 1017 patients. Models showed good balance between treatment groups. Compared with those who underwent embolization, patients treated with sorafenib had significantly higher hazard of earlier death from time of treatment (hazard ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.46-2.37; p < 0.0001) and from time of cancer diagnosis (hazard ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.46-2.39; p < 0.0001). The survival advantage after embolization was seen in both intermediate- and advanced-stage disease. This comparative effectiveness study of Medicare patients with hepatocellular carcinoma showed significantly longer overall survival after treatment with embolization than with sorafenib. Because these findings conflict with expert opinion-based guidelines for treatment of advanced-stage disease, prospective randomized comparative trials in this subpopulation would be justified.

Integration of Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models with Adverse Outcome Pathways and Environmental Exposure Models to Screen for Environmental Hazards

EPA Science Inventory

A Life-stage Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to include descriptions of several life-stage events such as pregnancy, fetal development, the neonate and child growth. The overall modeling strategy was used for in vitro to in vivo (IVIVE) extrapolat...

The 3 faces of clinical reasoning: Epistemological explorations of disparate error reduction strategies.

PubMed

Monteiro, Sandra; Norman, Geoff; Sherbino, Jonathan

2018-06-01

There is general consensus that clinical reasoning involves 2 stages: a rapid stage where 1 or more diagnostic hypotheses are advanced and a slower stage where these hypotheses are tested or confirmed. The rapid hypothesis generation stage is considered inaccessible for analysis or observation. Consequently, recent research on clinical reasoning has focused specifically on improving the accuracy of the slower, hypothesis confirmation stage. Three perspectives have developed in this line of research, and each proposes different error reduction strategies for clinical reasoning. This paper considers these 3 perspectives and examines the underlying assumptions. Additionally, this paper reviews the evidence, or lack of, behind each class of error reduction strategies. The first perspective takes an epidemiological stance, appealing to the benefits of incorporating population data and evidence-based medicine in every day clinical reasoning. The second builds on the heuristic and bias research programme, appealing to a special class of dual process reasoning models that theorizes a rapid error prone cognitive process for problem solving with a slower more logical cognitive process capable of correcting those errors. Finally, the third perspective borrows from an exemplar model of categorization that explicitly relates clinical knowledge and experience to diagnostic accuracy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting Effects of Coastal Acidification on Marine Bivalve ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is increasing in the oceans and causing changes in seawater pH commonly described as ocean or coastal acidification. It is now well-established that, when reproduced in laboratory experiments, these increases in pCO2 can reduce survival and growth of early life stage bivalves. However, the effects that these impairments would have on whole populations of bivalves are unknown. In this study, these laboratory responses were incorporated into field-parameterized population models to assess population-level sensitivities to acidification for two northeast bivalve species with different life histories: Mercenaria mercenaria (hard clam) and Argopecten irradians (bay scallop). The resulting models permitted translation of laboratory pCO2 response functions into population-level responses to examine population sensitivity to future pCO2 changes. Preliminary results from our models indicate that if the current M. mercenaria negative population growth rate was attributed to the effects of pCO2 on early life stages, the population would decline at a rate of 50% per ten years at 420 microatmospheres (µatm) pCO2. If the current population growth rate was attributed to other additive factors (e.g., harvest, harmful algal blooms), M. mercenaria populations were predicted to decline at a rate of 50% per ten years at the preliminary estimate of 1010 µatm pCO2. The estimated population growth rate was positive for A. irradians,

Identification of Cells at Early and Late Stages of Polarization During Odontoblast Differentiation Using pOBCol3.6GFP and pOBCol2.3GFP Transgenic Mice

PubMed Central

Balic, Anamaria; Aguila, H. Leonardo; Mina, Mina

2010-01-01

Transgenic mouse lines in which GFP expression is under the control of tissue-and stage specific promoters have provided powerful experimental tools for identification and isolation of cells at specific stage of differentiation along a lineage. In the present study we used primary cell cultures derived from the dental pulp from pOBCol3.6GFP and pOBCol2.3GFP transgenic mice as a model to develop markers for early stages of odontoblast differentiation from progenitor cells. We analyzed the temporal and spatial expression of 2.3-GFP and 3.6-GFP during in vitro mineralization. Using FACS to separate cells based on GFP expression, we obtained relatively homogenous sub-populations of cells and analyzed their dentinogenic potentials and their progression into odontoblasts. Our observations showed that these transgenes were activated before the onset of matrix deposition and in cells at different stages of polarization. The 3.6-GFP transgene was activated in cells in early stages of polarization whereas the 2.3-GFP transgene was activated at a later stage of polarization just before or at the time of formation of secretory odontoblast. PMID:20728593

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of public awareness campaigns for the early detection of non-small-cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Hinde, S; McKenna, C; Whyte, S; Peake, M D; Callister, M E J; Rogers, T; Sculpher, M

2015-06-30

Survival rates in lung cancer in England are significantly lower than in many similar countries. A range of Be Clear on Cancer (BCOC) campaigns have been conducted targeting lung cancer and found to improve the proportion of diagnoses at the early stage of disease. This paper considers the cost-effectiveness of such campaigns, evaluating the effect of both the regional and national BCOC campaigns on the stage distribution of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at diagnosis. A natural history model of NSCLC was developed using incidence data, data elicited from clinical experts and model calibration techniques. This structure is used to consider the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted survival implications of the early awareness campaigns. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of additional costs per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained are presented. Two scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the role of changes in the 'worried-well' population and the route of diagnosis that might occur as a result of the campaigns. The base-case theoretical model found the regional and national early awareness campaigns to be associated with QALY gains of 289 and 178 QALYs and ICERs of £13 660 and £18 173 per QALY gained, respectively. The scenarios found that increases in the 'worried-well' population may impact the cost-effectiveness conclusions. Subject to the available evidence, the analysis suggests that early awareness campaigns in lung cancer have the potential to be cost-effective. However, significant additional research is required to address many of the limitations of this study. In addition, the estimated natural history model presents previously unavailable estimates of the prevalence and rate of disease progression in the undiagnosed population.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of public awareness campaigns for the early detection of non-small-cell lung cancer

PubMed Central

Hinde, S; McKenna, C; Whyte, S; Peake, M D; Callister, M E J; Rogers, T; Sculpher, M

2015-01-01

Background: Survival rates in lung cancer in England are significantly lower than in many similar countries. A range of Be Clear on Cancer (BCOC) campaigns have been conducted targeting lung cancer and found to improve the proportion of diagnoses at the early stage of disease. This paper considers the cost-effectiveness of such campaigns, evaluating the effect of both the regional and national BCOC campaigns on the stage distribution of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at diagnosis. Methods: A natural history model of NSCLC was developed using incidence data, data elicited from clinical experts and model calibration techniques. This structure is used to consider the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted survival implications of the early awareness campaigns. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of additional costs per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained are presented. Two scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the role of changes in the ‘worried-well' population and the route of diagnosis that might occur as a result of the campaigns. Results: The base-case theoretical model found the regional and national early awareness campaigns to be associated with QALY gains of 289 and 178 QALYs and ICERs of £13 660 and £18 173 per QALY gained, respectively. The scenarios found that increases in the ‘worried-well' population may impact the cost-effectiveness conclusions. Conclusions: Subject to the available evidence, the analysis suggests that early awareness campaigns in lung cancer have the potential to be cost-effective. However, significant additional research is required to address many of the limitations of this study. In addition, the estimated natural history model presents previously unavailable estimates of the prevalence and rate of disease progression in the undiagnosed population. PMID:26010412

Targeting Hispanic populations: future research and prevention strategies.

PubMed Central

Ramirez, A G; McAlister, A; Gallion, K J; Villarreal, R

1995-01-01

Minority populations face a wide variety of economic, institutional, and cultural barriers to health care. These barriers and low levels of education and income pose significant challenges for health professionals in developing cancer research and prevention-control strategies. It is suggested that specific segments of Hispanic populations fit the model of an underdeveloped country in the intermediate stage of epidemiological transition. Since noncommunicable diseases have not yet fully emerged in some of these Hispanic population segments, the opportunity exists to apply primordial prevention strategies. Such campaigns would focus on dissuading members of these populations from adopting negative health behaviors while promoting positive lifestyle choices. Optimal programs would increase cancer screening participation and discourage risk behaviors through community-oriented, population-based interventions. Future directions in prevention and control efforts for minority populations should include expanded health insurance coverage, improved access to health care, greater emphasis on minority recruitment in health care fields, focused epidemiologic and clinical research, and identification and replication of effective components within existing prevention-control programs. PMID:8741800

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

2012-09-01

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Impact of group nutrition education and surplus value of Prochaska-based stage-matched information on health-related cognitions and on Mediterranean nutrition behavior.

PubMed

Siero, F W; Broer, J; Bemelmans, W J; Meyboom-de Jong, B M

2000-10-01

This study compares the effect of two interventions focussed on the promotion of Mediterranean nutrition behavior. The target groups are persons with three risk factors for development of cardiovascular disease. The study region is a socio-economically deprived area in the Netherlands. The first intervention consisted of three meetings in which the positive health effects of a Mediterranean diet were discussed in group sessions. In the additional intervention stage-matched information based on the Transtheoretical Model of behavior change was given. Both intervention groups were compared with a control group, which received only a printed leaflet with the Dutch nutritional guidelines. At baseline the three subgroups were comparable and after 16 weeks both intervention strategies resulted in significant changes in comparison with the control condition. For fish consumption, both strategies resulted in more positive attitudes, social norms, stronger intentions, more progress in stage of change and better nutritional intake. For fruit/vegetables consumption, the effects of both strategies were limited to stage of change and nutritional intake. Additional individually stage-matched tailored letters did not result in more progress on any of the dependent variables. We conclude that substantial nutritional behavior change can be achieved by interactive group education in socio-economically deprived population groups.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Clinical statistics of gynecologic cancers in Japan.

PubMed

Yamagami, Wataru; Nagase, Satoru; Takahashi, Fumiaki; Ino, Kazuhiko; Hachisuga, Toru; Aoki, Daisuke; Katabuchi, Hidetaka

2017-03-01

Cervical, endometrial, and ovarian cancers, have both high morbidity and mortality among the gynecologic malignant tumors in Japan. The present study was conducted using both the population-based cancer registry and the gynecologic cancer registry to elucidate the characteristics of gynecologic malignant tumors in Japan. Based on nationwide estimates from the population-based cancer registry in Japan, the morbidities and mortality of cervical, endometrial, and ovarian cancers were obtained and used for analysis. Clinicopathologic factors for cervical cancer, endometrial cancer, ovarian cancer, including age, clinical stage, postsurgical stage, histological type, therapeutic strategy, and prognosis were retrieved from the gynecologic cancer registry published by the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology and used for analysis. The morbidities of cervical, endometrial, and ovarian cancers were 10,908, 13,606, and 9,384 women in 2012, respectively. The prevalence of endometrial cancer has significantly and consistently been increasing and represents the most common gynecologic malignant tumor in Japan. The mortalities of cervical, endometrial, and ovarian cancers were 2.1, 1.3, and 3.2 per 100,000 in 2012, respectively. In 2014, 52.2% of cervical cancer patients were classified as stage I, 22.5% as stage II, 10.2% as stage III, and 11.2% as stage IV. In addition, 71.9% of endometrial cancer patients were classified as stage I, 6.0% as stage II, 13.3% as stage III, and 7.5% as stage IV. Finally, 43.2% of ovarian cancer patients were classified as stage I, 9.1% as stage II, 27.6% as stage III, and 7.2% as stage IV. Twelve-point six percent of ovarian cancer patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Asian Society of Gynecologic Oncology, Korean Society of Gynecologic Oncology.

Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models.

PubMed

Andersson, Therese M L; Dickman, Paul W; Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C

2011-06-22

When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. © 2011 Andersson et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Methods Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. Results We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Conclusions Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. PMID:21696598

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model for the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus

PubMed Central

Monaco, Cristián J.; Wethey, David S.; Helmuth, Brian

2014-01-01

We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the quintessential keystone predator, the rocky-intertidal sea star Pisaster ochraceus. Based on first principles, DEB theory is used to illuminate underlying physiological processes (maintenance, growth, development, and reproduction), thus providing a framework to predict individual-level responses to environmental change. We parameterized the model for P. ochraceus using both data from the literature and experiments conducted specifically for the DEB framework. We devoted special attention to the model’s capacity to (1) describe growth trajectories at different life-stages, including pelagic larval and post-metamorphic phases, (2) simulate shrinkage when prey availability is insufficient to meet maintenance requirements, and (3) deal with the combined effects of changing body temperature and food supply. We further validated the model using an independent growth data set. Using standard statistics to compare model outputs with real data (e.g. Mean Absolute Percent Error, MAPE) we demonstrated that the model is capable of tracking P. ochraceus’ growth in length at different life-stages (larvae: MAPE = 12.27%; post-metamorphic, MAPE = 9.22%), as well as quantifying reproductive output index. However, the model’s skill dropped when trying to predict changes in body mass (MAPE = 24.59%), potentially because of the challenge of precisely anticipating spawning events. Interestingly, the model revealed that P. ochraceus reserves contribute little to total biomass, suggesting that animals draw energy from structure when food is limited. The latter appears to drive indeterminate growth dynamics in P. ochraceus. Individual-based mechanistic models, which can illuminate underlying physiological responses, offer a viable framework for forecasting population dynamics in the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus. The DEB model herein represents a critical step in that direction, especially in a period of increased anthropogenic pressure on natural systems and an observed recent decline in populations of this keystone species. PMID:25166351

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia: A prognostic model comprising only two biomarkers (IGHV mutational status and FISH cytogenetics) separates patients with different outcome and simplifies the CLL-IPI.

PubMed

Delgado, Julio; Doubek, Michael; Baumann, Tycho; Kotaskova, Jana; Molica, Stefano; Mozas, Pablo; Rivas-Delgado, Alfredo; Morabito, Fortunato; Pospisilova, Sarka; Montserrat, Emili

2017-04-01

Rai and Binet staging systems are important to predict the outcome of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) but do not reflect the biologic diversity of the disease nor predict response to therapy, which ultimately shape patients' outcome. We devised a biomarkers-only CLL prognostic system based on the two most important prognostic parameters in CLL (i.e., IGHV mutational status and fluorescence in situ hybridization [FISH] cytogenetics), separating three different risk groups: (1) low-risk (mutated IGHV + no adverse FISH cytogenetics [del(17p), del(11q)]); (2) intermediate-risk (either unmutated IGHV or adverse FISH cytogenetics) and (3) high-risk (unmutated IGHV + adverse FISH cytogenetics). In 524 unselected subjects with CLL, the 10-year overall survival was 82% (95% CI 76%-88%), 52% (45%-62%), and 27% (17%-42%) for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Patients with low-risk comprised around 50% of the series and had a life expectancy comparable to the general population. The prognostic model was fully validated in two independent cohorts, including 417 patients representative of general CLL population and 337 patients with Binet stage A CLL. The model had a similar discriminatory value as the CLL-IPI. Moreover, it applied to all patients with CLL independently of age, and separated patients with different risk within Rai or Binet clinical stages. The biomarkers-only CLL prognostic system presented here simplifies the CLL-IPI and could be useful in daily practice and to stratify patients in clinical trials. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Single generation cycles and delayed feedback cycles are not separate phenomena.

PubMed

Pfaff, T; Brechtel, A; Drossel, B; Guill, C

2014-12-01

We study a simple model for generation cycles, which are oscillations with a period of one or a few generation times of the species. The model is formulated in terms of a single delay-differential equation for the population density of an adult stage, with recruitment to the adult stage depending on the intensity of competition during the juvenile phase. This model is a simplified version of a group of models proposed by Gurney and Nisbet, who were the first to distinguish between single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles. According to these authors, the two oscillation types are caused by different mechanisms and have periods in different intervals, which are one to two generation times for single-generation cycles and two to four generation times for delayed-feedback cycles. By abolishing the strict coupling between the maturation time and the time delay between competition and its effect on the population dynamics, we find that single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles occur in the same model version, with a gradual transition between the two as the model parameters are varied over a sufficiently large range. Furthermore, cycle periods are not bounded to lie within single octaves. This implies that a clear distinction between different types of generation cycles is not possible. Cycles of all periods and even chaos can be generated by varying the parameters that determine the time during which individuals from different cohorts compete with each other. This suggests that life-cycle features in the juvenile stage and during the transition to the adult stage are important determinants of the dynamics of density limited populations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Xing, Yan; Chang, George J; Hu, Chung-Yuan; Askew, Robert L; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Lee, Jeffrey E; Mansfield, Paul F; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N

2010-05-01

Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision making. Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (1988-2000). By using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific, 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year after diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology. Five-year CS estimates for patients with stage I disease remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III, and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender, and race decreased over time. Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and nontreatment related life decisions. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

Molecular Characterization of a Xiphinema hunaniense Population with Morphometric Data of all Four Juvenile Stages

PubMed Central

Wu, Y.; Zheng, J.; Robbins, R. T.

2007-01-01

A population of Xiphinema hunaniense Wang and Wu, 1992 with all four juvenile stages was found in the rhizosphere of Pinus sp. in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China. Morphometrics of 18 females and 35 juveniles of this population are given herein. Detailed morphology and morphometrics of the four juvenile stages are provided. Further comparisons based on morphometrics of the population with previous studies of the females and the first-stage juveniles of X. hunaniense with X. radicicola are given, and morphological variation in X. hunaniense populations are discussed. A revised polytomous key code of Loof and Luc (1990) for X. hunaniense identification is provided, i.e., A1- B4- C4- D4/5- E1- F2(3)- G2- H2-I3- J4- K2- L1. In addition, the sequence of the D2 and D3 expansion region of the 28S rRNA gene was analyzed and compared with sequences of closely related species downloaded from the NCBI database. Cluster analysis of sequences confirmed and supported the species identifications. PMID:19259473

Meaningful use stage 2 e-prescribing threshold and adverse drug events in the Medicare Part D population with diabetes

PubMed Central

Gabriel, Meghan Hufstader; Encinosa, William; Mostashari, Farzad; Bynum, Julie

2015-01-01

Evidence supports the potential for e-prescribing to reduce the incidence of adverse drug events (ADEs) in hospital-based studies, but studies in the ambulatory setting have not used occurrence of ADE as their outcome. Using the “prescription origin code” in 2011 Medicare Part D prescription drug events files, the authors investigate whether physicians who meet the meaningful use stage 2 threshold for e-prescribing (≥50% of prescriptions e-prescribed) have lower rates of ADEs among their diabetic patients. Risk of any patient with diabetes in the provider’s panel having an ADE from anti-diabetic medications was modeled adjusted for prescriber and patient panel characteristics. Physician e-prescribing to Medicare beneficiaries was associated with reduced risk of ADEs among their diabetes patients (Odds Ratio: 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.96), as were several prescriber and panel characteristics. However, these physicians treated fewer patients from disadvantaged populations. PMID:25948698

Age, stage and senescence in plants

PubMed Central

Caswell, Hal; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto

2013-01-01

1. Senescence (an increase in the mortality rate or force of mortality, or a decrease in fertility, with increasing age) is a widespread phenomenon. Theories about the evolution of senescence have long focused on the age trajectories of the selection gradients on mortality and fertility. In purely age-classified models, these selection gradients are non-increasing with age, implying that traits expressed early in life have a greater impact on fitness than traits expressed later in life. This pattern leads inevitably to the evolution of senescence if there are trade-offs between early and late performance. 2. It has long been suspected that the stage- or size-dependent demography typical of plants might change these conclusions. In this paper, we develop a model that includes both stage- and age-dependence and derive the age-dependent, stage-dependent and age×stage-dependent selection gradients on mortality and fertility. 3. We applied this model to stage-classified population projection matrices for 36 species of plants, from a wide variety of growth forms (from mosses to trees) and habitats. 4. We found that the age-specific selection gradients within a life cycle stage can exhibit increases with age (we call these contra-senescent selection gradients). In later stages, often large size classes in plant demography, the duration of these contra-senescent gradients can exceed the life expectancy by several fold. 5. Synthesis. The interaction of age- and stage-dependence in plants leads to selection pressures on senescence fundamentally different from those found in previous, age-classified theories. This result may explain the observation that large plants seem less subject to senescence than most kinds of animals. The methods presented here can lead to improved analysis of both age-dependent and stage-dependent demographic properties of plant populations. PMID:23741075

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

A multi-stage compartmental model for HIV-infected individuals: II--application to insurance functions and health-care costs.

PubMed

Billard, L; Dayananda, P W A

2014-03-01

Stochastic population processes have received a lot of attention over the years. One approach focuses on compartmental modeling. Billard and Dayananda (2012) developed one such multi-stage model for epidemic processes in which the possibility that individuals can die at any stage from non-disease related causes was also included. This extra feature is of particular interest to the insurance and health-care industries among others especially when the epidemic is HIV/AIDS. Rather than working with numbers of individuals in each stage, they obtained distributional results dealing with the waiting time any one individual spent in each stage given the initial stage. In this work, the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on several functions relevant to these industries (such as adjustments to premiums) is investigated. Theoretical results are derived, followed by a numerical study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atomic structure data based on average-atom model for opacity calculations in astrophysical plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzhaskovskaya, M. B.; Nikulin, V. K.

2018-03-01

Influence of the plasmas parameters on the electron structure of ions in astrophysical plasmas is studied on the basis of the average-atom model in the local thermodynamic equilibrium approximation. The relativistic Dirac-Slater method is used for the electron density estimation. The emphasis is on the investigation of an impact of the plasmas temperature and density on the ionization stages required for calculations of the plasmas opacities. The level population distributions and level energy spectra are calculated and analyzed for all ions with 6 ≤ Z ≤ 32 occurring in astrophysical plasmas. The plasma temperature range 2 - 200 eV and the density range 2 - 100 mg/cm3 are considered. The validity of the method used is supported by good agreement between our values of ionization stages for a number of ions, from oxygen up to uranium, and results obtained earlier by various methods among which are more complicated procedures.

Exploring Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer: development of a prognostic model predicting 5-year survival after surgical resection†.

PubMed

Guerrera, Francesco; Errico, Luca; Evangelista, Andrea; Filosso, Pier Luigi; Ruffini, Enrico; Lisi, Elena; Bora, Giulia; Asteggiano, Elena; Olivetti, Stefania; Lausi, Paolo; Ardissone, Francesco; Oliaro, Alberto

2015-06-01

Despite impressive results in diagnosis and treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), more than 30% of patients with Stage I NSCLC die within 5 years after surgical treatment. Identification of prognostic factors to select patients with a poor prognosis and development of tailored treatment strategies are then advisable. The aim of our study was to design a model able to define prognosis in patients with Stage I NSCLC, submitted to surgery with curative intent. A retrospective analysis of two surgical registries was performed. Predictors of survival were investigated using the Cox model with shared frailty (accounting for the within-centre correlation). Candidate predictors were: age, gender, smoking habit, morbidity, previous malignancy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, clinical N stage, maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)), forced expiratory volume in 1 s, carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO), extent of surgical resection, systematic lymphadenectomy, vascular invasion, pathological T stage, histology and histological grading. The final model included predictors with P < 0.20, after a backward selection. Missing data in evaluated predictors were multiple-imputed and combined estimates were obtained from 10 imputed data sets. Analysis was performed on 848 consecutive patients. The median follow-up was 48 months. Two hundred and nine patients died (25%), with a 5-year overall survival (OS) rate of 74%. The final Cox model demonstrated that mortality was significantly associated with age, male sex, presence of cardiac comorbidities, DLCO (%), SUV(max), systematic nodal dissection, presence of microscopic vascular invasion, pTNM stage and histological grading. The final model showed a fair discrimination ability (C-statistic = 0.69): the calibration of the model indicated a good agreement between observed and predicted survival. We designed an effective prognostic model based on clinical, pathological and surgical covariates. Our preliminary results need to be refined and validated in a larger patient population, in order to provide an easy-to-use prognostic tool for Stage I NSCLC patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

2017-09-01

Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Halpern, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Knowledge, skills, and behavior improvements on peer educators and low-income Hispanic participants after a stage of change-based bilingual nutrition education program.

PubMed

Taylor, T; Serrano, E; Anderson, J; Kendall, P

2000-06-01

A nutrition education program, entitled La Cocina Saludable, was designed according to the Stage of Change Model and implemented in ten southern Colorado counties. The objectives were to improve the nutrition related knowledge, skills, and behaviors that lead to healthy lifestyles in a low-income Hispanic population. The content of the program included nutrition information designed to help mothers of preschool children provide for their children's nutritional needs. Previous studies suggest that low-income Hispanics often demonstrate low intakes of vitamins A and C, calcium, iron, and protein, and high rates of diabetes, obesity, and infections. Additionally, this population presents many obstacles for nutrition educators including limited resources, child care, transportation, time, language, culture, literacy, health beliefs, and, in some cases, the transient nature of the population. The program attempted to overcome these barriers by incorporating a flexible program format carried out by abuela (Hispanic grandmother) educators using the processes described in the Stage of Change Model. The program was evaluated using a knowledge, skills and behavior pre-test, post-test, and six-month follow-up survey on both the abuela educators as well as the actual class participants. Results of the peer education training sessions suggest that this type of training program can be effective in increasing the knowledge, skills, and behavior of peer educators as well as reduce need for retraining for educators who continuously teach classes. Additionally, the results suggest that this type of program can be effective in changing selected nutrition related knowledge, skills, and behaviors leading to healthy lifestyles for low-income Hispanic mothers of preschool children.

Treating Medicaid patients with hepatitis C: clinical and economic impact.

PubMed

Younossi, Zobair; Gordon, Stuart C; Ahmed, Aijaz; Dieterich, Douglas; Saab, Sammy; Beckerman, Rachel

2017-02-01

To estimate change in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease and the economic burden associated with comprehensive treatment of the chronic HCV-infected Medicaid population. Decision-analytic Markov model. Treatment-naïve patients with genotype 1 chronic HCV were followed over a lifetime horizon from the third-party payer perspective. Patients entered the model insured under Medicaid and were treated under state-specific restrictions by Metavir fibrosis stage (base case) or all treated (all-patient strategy) with an approved all-oral regimen (ledipasvir/sofosbuvir [LDV/SOF] for 8 weeks or 12 weeks, depending on cirrhosis status, viral load, and state-specific LDV/SOF restrictions). Untreated patients were assumed to age into Medicare at 65 years, where they were treated with LDV/SOF without restriction by fibrotic stage. The sustained virologic response (SVR) rate of the current Medicaid LDV/SOF restriction strategy was 75.2% versus 95.9% if all LDV/SOF-eligible patients were treated under Medicaid. Treating all eligible Medicaid patients with LDV/SOF, regardless of fibrotic stage, was projected to result in 36,752 fewer cases of cirrhosis; 1739 fewer liver transplants; 8169 fewer cases of hepatocellular carcinoma; 16,173 fewer HCV-related deaths; 0.84 additional life-years per patient; and 1.03 additional quality-adjusted life-years per patient. Treating all Medicaid patients with chronic HCV using LDV/SOF resulted in a 39.4% ($3.8 billion) savings and decreased the proportion of total costs attributable to downstream costs of care to 18.3%. A "treat all" strategy in a Medicaid population resulted in superior SVRs, substantial reductions in downstream negative clinical outcomes, and considerable cost savings. Current restrictive state policies regarding HCV treatment in Medicaid populations must be reassessed in light of these data.

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

Potential effects of maternal contribution on egg and larva population dynamics of striped bass: Integrated individual-based model and directed field sampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cowan, J.H., Jr.; Rose, K.A.

1991-01-01

We have used a bioenergetically-driven, individual-based model (IBM) of striped bass as a framework for synthesizing available information on population biology and quantifying, in a relative sense, factors that potentially affect year class success. The IBM has been configured to simulate environmental conditions experienced by several striped bass populations; i.e., in the Potomac River, MD; in Hudson River, NY; in the Santee-Cooper River System, SC, and; in the San Joaquin-Sacramento River System CA. These sites represent extremes in the geographic distribution and thus, environmental variability of striped bass spawning. At each location, data describing the physio-chemical and biological characteristics ofmore » the spawning population and nursery area are being collected and synthesized by means of a prioritized, directed field sampling program that is organized by the individual-based recruitment model. Here, we employ the striped bass IBM configured for the Potomac River, MD from spawning into the larval period to evaluate the potential for maternal contribution to affect larva survival and growth. Model simulations in which the size distribution and spawning day of females are altered indicate that larva survival is enhanced (3.3-fold increase) when a high fraction of females in the spawning population are large. Larva stage duration also is less ({bar X} = 18.4 d and 22.2 d) when large and small females, respectively, are mothers in simulations. Although inconclusive, these preliminary results for Potomac River striped bass suggest that the effects of female size, timing of spawning nad maternal contribution on recruitment dynamics potentially are important and illustrate our approach to the study of recruitment in striped bass. We hope to use the model, field collections and management alternatives that vary from site to site, in an iterative manner for some time to come. 54 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less

The Safety of Ovarian Preservation in Stage I Endometrial Endometrioid Adenocarcinoma Based on Propensity Score Matching.

PubMed

Hou, Ting; Sun, Yidi; Li, Junyi; Liu, Chenglin; Wang, Zhen; Li, Yixue; Lu, Yuan

2017-01-01

Most patients with early stage endometrial endometrioid adenocarcinoma (EEAC) are treated with hysterectomy and bilateral oophorectomy. But this surgical menopause leads to long-term sequelae for premenopausal women, especially for young women of childbearing age. This population-based study was to evaluate the safety of ovarian preservation in young women with stage I EEAC. Patients of age 50 or younger with stage I EEAC were explored from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program database during 2004 to 2013. Propensity score matching was used to randomize the data set and reduce the selection biases of doctors. Univariate analysis and multivariate cox proportional hazards model were utilized to estimate the safety of ovarian preservation. A total of 7183 patients were identified, and ovarian preservation was performed in 863 (12 %) patients. Compared with women treated with oophorectomy, patients with ovarian preservation significantly tend to be younger at diagnosis (P-value < 0.001) and more likely diagnosed as stage IA EEAC, to have better differentiated tumor tissues and smaller tumors, as well as less likely to undergo radiation and lymphadenectomy. 863 patients treated with oophorectomy were selected by propensity score matching. After propensity score matching, the differences of all characteristics between ovarian preservation and oophorectomy were not significant and potential confounders in the two groups decreased. In univariate analysis of matched population, ovarian preservation had no effect on overall (P-value=0.928) and cancer-specific (P-value=0.390) mortality. In propensityadjusted multivariate analysis, ovarian preservation was not significantly associated with overall (HR=0.69, 95%CI=0.41-1.68, P-value=0.611) and cancer-specific (HR=1.65, 95%CI=0.54-5.06, Pvalue= 0.379) survival. Ovarian preservation is safe for young women with stage I EEAC, which is not significantly associated with overall and cancer-specific mortality. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Antarctic and Arctic populations of the ciliate Euplotes nobilii show common pheromone-mediated cell-cell signaling and cross-mating

PubMed Central

Di Giuseppe, Graziano; Erra, Fabrizio; Dini, Fernando; Alimenti, Claudio; Vallesi, Adriana; Pedrini, Bill; Wüthrich, Kurt; Luporini, Pierangelo

2011-01-01

Wild-type strains of the protozoan ciliate Euplotes collected from different locations on the coasts of Antarctica, Tierra del Fuego and the Arctic were taxonomically identified as the morpho-species Euplotes nobilii, based on morphometric and phylogenetic analyses. Subsequent studies of their sexual interactions revealed that mating combinations of Antarctic and Arctic strains form stable pairs of conjugant cells. These conjugant pairs were isolated and shown to complete mutual gene exchange and cross-fertilization. The biological significance of this finding was further substantiated by demonstrating that close homology exists among the three-dimensional structures determined by NMR of the water-borne signaling pheromones that are constitutively secreted into the extracellular space by these interbreeding strains, in which these molecules trigger the switch between the growth stage and the sexual stage of the life cycle. The fact that Antarctic and Arctic E. nobilii populations share the same gene pool and belong to the same biological species provides new support to the biogeographic model of global distribution of eukaryotic microorganisms, which had so far been based exclusively on studies of morphological and phylogenetic taxonomy. PMID:21300903

Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

2014-11-01

Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

The stochastic dance of early HIV infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrill, Stephen J.

2005-12-01

The stochastic nature of early HIV infection is described in a series of models, each of which captures aspects of the dance of HIV during the early stages of infection. It is to this highly variable target that the immune response must respond. The adaptability of the various components of the immune response is an important aspect of the system's operation, as the nature of the pathogens that the response will be required to respond to and the order in which those responses must be made cannot be known beforehand. As HIV infection has direct influence over cells responsible for the immune response, the dance predicts that the immune response will be also in a variable state of readiness and capability for this task of adaptation. The description of the stochastic dance of HIV here will use the tools of stochastic models, and for the most part, simulation. The justification for this approach is that the early stages and the development of HIV diversity require that the model to be able to describe both individual sample path and patient-to-patient variability. In addition, as early viral dynamics are best described using branching processes, the explosive growth of these models both predicts high variability and rapid response of HIV to changes in system parameters.In this paper, a basic viral growth model based on a time dependent continuous-time branching process is used to describe the growth of HIV infected cells in the macrophage and lymphocyte populations. Immigration from the reservoir population is added to the basic model to describe the incubation time distribution. This distribution is deduced directly from the modeling assumptions and the model of viral growth. A system of two branching processes, one in the infected macrophage population and one in the infected lymphocyte population is used to provide a description of the relationship between the development of HIV diversity as it relates to tropism (host cell preference). The role of the immune response to HIV and HIV infected cells is used to describe the movement of the infection from a few infected macrophages to a disease of infected CD4+ T lymphocytes.

DISTINGUISHING COMPACT BINARY POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS USING GRAVITATIONAL WAVE OBSERVATIONS OF COALESCING BINARY BLACK HOLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevenson, Simon; Ohme, Frank; Fairhurst, Stephen, E-mail: simon.stevenson@ligo.org

2015-09-01

The coalescence of compact binaries containing neutron stars or black holes is one of the most promising signals for advanced ground-based laser interferometer gravitational-wave (GW) detectors, with the first direct detections expected over the next few years. The rate of binary coalescences and the distribution of component masses is highly uncertain, and population synthesis models predict a wide range of plausible values. Poorly constrained parameters in population synthesis models correspond to poorly understood astrophysics at various stages in the evolution of massive binary stars, the progenitors of binary neutron star and binary black hole systems. These include effects such asmore » supernova kick velocities, parameters governing the energetics of common envelope evolution and the strength of stellar winds. Observing multiple binary black hole systems through GWs will allow us to infer details of the astrophysical mechanisms that lead to their formation. Here we simulate GW observations from a series of population synthesis models including the effects of known selection biases, measurement errors and cosmology. We compare the predictions arising from different models and show that we will be able to distinguish between them with observations (or the lack of them) from the early runs of the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. This will allow us to narrow down the large parameter space for binary evolution models.« less

After accounting for competing causes of death and more advanced stage, do Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with cancer still have worse survival? A population-based cohort study in New South Wales.

PubMed

Tervonen, Hanna E; Walton, Richard; You, Hui; Baker, Deborah; Roder, David; Currow, David; Aranda, Sanchia

2017-06-02

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Australia have been found to have poorer cancer survival than non-Aboriginal people. However, use of conventional relative survival analyses is limited due to a lack of life tables. This cohort study examined whether poorer survival persist after accounting for competing risks of death from other causes and disparities in cancer stage at diagnosis, for all cancers collectively and by cancer site. People diagnosed in 2000-2008 were extracted from the population-based New South Wales Cancer Registry. Aboriginal status was multiply imputed for people with missing information (12.9%). Logistic regression models were used to compute odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 'advanced stage' at diagnosis (separately for distant and distant/regional stage). Survival was examined using competing risk regression to compute subhazard ratios (SHRs) with 95%CIs. Of the 301,356 cases, 2517 (0.84%) identified as Aboriginal (0.94% after imputation). After adjusting for age, sex, year of diagnosis, socio-economic status, remoteness, and cancer site Aboriginal peoples were more likely to be diagnosed with distant (OR 1.30, 95%CI 1.17-1.44) or distant/regional stage (OR 1.29, 95%CI 1.18-1.40) for all cancers collectively. This applied to cancers of the female breast, uterus, prostate, kidney, others (those not included in other categories) and cervix (when analyses were restricted to cases with known stages/known Aboriginal status). Aboriginal peoples had a higher hazard of death than non-Aboriginal people after accounting for competing risks from other causes of death, socio-demographic factors, stage and cancer site (SHR 1.40, 95%CI 1.31-1.50 for all cancers collectively). Consistent results applied to colorectal, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers. Aboriginal peoples with cancer have an elevated hazard of cancer death compared with non-Aboriginal people, after accounting for more advanced stage and competing causes of death. Further research is needed to determine reasons, including any contribution of co-morbidity, lifestyle factors and differentials in service access to help explain disparities.

Understanding interannual variability in the distribution of, and transport processes affecting, the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus using behavioral-hydrodynamic modeling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jung Jin; Stockhausen, William; Kim, Suam; Cho, Yang-Ki; Seo, Gwang-Ho; Lee, Joon-Soo

2015-11-01

To understand interannual variability in the distribution of the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus summer spawning population, and to identify the key transport processes influencing this variability, we used a coupled bio-physical model that combines an individual-based model (IBM) incorporating ontogenetic vertical migration for paralarval behavior and temperature-dependent survival process with a ROMS oceanographic model. Using the distribution of paralarvae observed in the northern East China Sea (ECS) during several field cruises as an end point, the spawning ground for the summer-spawning population was estimated to extend from southeast Jeju Island to the central ECS near 29°N by running the model backwards in time. Running the model forward, interannual variability in the distribution of paralarvae predicted by the model was consistent with that observed in several field surveys; surviving individuals in the northern ECS were substantially more abundant in late July 2006 than in 2007, in agreement with observed paralarval distributions. The total number of surviving individuals at 60 days after release based on the simulation throughout summer spawning period (June-August) was 20,329 for 2006, compared with 13,816 for 2007. The surviving individuals were mainly distributed in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), corresponding to a pathway following the nearshore branch of the Tsushima Warm Current flowing along the Japanese coast during both years. In contrast, the abundance of surviving individuals was extremely low in 2007 compared to 2006 on the Pacific side of Japan. Interannual variability in transport and survival processes made a substantial impact on not only the abundance of surviving paralarvae, but also on the flux of paralarvae to adjacent waters. Our simulation results for between-year variation in paralarval abundance coincide with recruitment (year n + 1) variability of T. pacificus in the field. The agreement between the simulation and field data indicates our model may be useful for predicting the recruitment of T. pacificus.

Exact protein distributions for stochastic models of gene expression using partitioning of Poisson processes.

PubMed

Pendar, Hodjat; Platini, Thierry; Kulkarni, Rahul V

2013-04-01

Stochasticity in gene expression gives rise to fluctuations in protein levels across a population of genetically identical cells. Such fluctuations can lead to phenotypic variation in clonal populations; hence, there is considerable interest in quantifying noise in gene expression using stochastic models. However, obtaining exact analytical results for protein distributions has been an intractable task for all but the simplest models. Here, we invoke the partitioning property of Poisson processes to develop a mapping that significantly simplifies the analysis of stochastic models of gene expression. The mapping leads to exact protein distributions using results for mRNA distributions in models with promoter-based regulation. Using this approach, we derive exact analytical results for steady-state and time-dependent distributions for the basic two-stage model of gene expression. Furthermore, we show how the mapping leads to exact protein distributions for extensions of the basic model that include the effects of posttranscriptional and posttranslational regulation. The approach developed in this work is widely applicable and can contribute to a quantitative understanding of stochasticity in gene expression and its regulation.

Exact protein distributions for stochastic models of gene expression using partitioning of Poisson processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendar, Hodjat; Platini, Thierry; Kulkarni, Rahul V.

2013-04-01

Stochasticity in gene expression gives rise to fluctuations in protein levels across a population of genetically identical cells. Such fluctuations can lead to phenotypic variation in clonal populations; hence, there is considerable interest in quantifying noise in gene expression using stochastic models. However, obtaining exact analytical results for protein distributions has been an intractable task for all but the simplest models. Here, we invoke the partitioning property of Poisson processes to develop a mapping that significantly simplifies the analysis of stochastic models of gene expression. The mapping leads to exact protein distributions using results for mRNA distributions in models with promoter-based regulation. Using this approach, we derive exact analytical results for steady-state and time-dependent distributions for the basic two-stage model of gene expression. Furthermore, we show how the mapping leads to exact protein distributions for extensions of the basic model that include the effects of posttranscriptional and posttranslational regulation. The approach developed in this work is widely applicable and can contribute to a quantitative understanding of stochasticity in gene expression and its regulation.

Effect of implementation of the mass breast cancer screening programme in older women in the Netherlands: population based study.

PubMed

de Glas, Nienke A; de Craen, Anton J M; Bastiaannet, Esther; Op 't Land, Ester G; Kiderlen, Mandy; van de Water, Willemien; Siesling, Sabine; Portielje, Johanneke E A; Schuttevaer, Herman M; de Bock, Geertruida Truuske H; van de Velde, Cornelis J H; Liefers, Gerrit-Jan

2014-09-14

To assess the incidence of early stage and advanced stage breast cancer before and after the implementation of mass screening in women aged 70-75 years in the Netherlands in 1998. Prospective nationwide population based study. National cancer registry, the Netherlands. Patients aged 70-75 years with a diagnosis of invasive or ductal carcinoma in situ breast cancer between 1995 and 2011 (n=25,414). Incidence rates were calculated using population data from Statistics Netherlands. Incidence rates of early stage (I, II, or ductal carcinoma in situ) and advanced stage (III and IV) breast cancer before and after implementation of screening. Hypotheses were formulated before data collection. The incidence of early stage tumours significantly increased after the extension for implementation of screening (248.7 cases per 100,000 women before screening up to 362.9 cases per 100,000 women after implementation of screening, incidence rate ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.40 to 1.52, P<0.001). However, the incidence of advanced stage breast cancers decreased to a far lesser extent (58.6 cases per 100,000 women before screening to 51.8 cases per 100,000 women after implementation of screening, incidence rate ratio 0.88, 0.81 to 0.97, P<0.001). The extension of the upper age limit to 75 years has only led to a small decrease in incidence of advanced stage breast cancer, while that of early stage tumours has strongly increased. © de Glas et al 2014.

Using narrative as a bridge: linking language processing models with real-life communication.

PubMed

Whitworth, Anne

2010-02-01

In chronic aphasia, maximizing generalization of improved language abilities from clinical tasks to everyday communication can require the same systematic planning process as the early stages of therapy, often drawing on additional areas of knowledge and successes from other clinical populations. The use of narrative structure is shown here to be a useful framework for building on the developments within sentence processing impairments in aphasia and creating a bridge to more real-life language tasks. An intervention based on narrative structure is described with two people with different language profiles and at different stages of the chronic aphasia spectrum. The insights gained in assessing language ability, underpinning intervention, and capturing therapeutic changes are demonstrated. Thieme Medical Publishers.

Disability Stages and Trouble Getting Needed Health Care Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

PubMed

McClintock, Heather F; Kurichi, Jibby E; Kwong, Pui L; Xie, Dawei; Streim, Joel E; Pezzin, Liliana E; Hennessey, Sean; Na, Ling; Bogner, Hillary R

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to examine whether activity limitation stages were associated with patient-reported trouble getting needed health care among Medicare beneficiaries. This was a population-based study (n = 35,912) of Medicare beneficiaries who participated in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey for years 2001-2010. Beneficiaries were classified into an activity limitation stage from 0 (no limitation) to IV (complete) derived from self-reported or proxy-reported difficulty performing activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living. Beneficiaries reported whether they had trouble getting health care in the subsequent year. A multivariable logistic regression model examined the association between activity limitation stages and trouble getting needed care. Compared with beneficiaries with no limitations (activities of daily living stage 0), the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for stage I (mild) to stage IV (complete) for trouble getting needed health care ranged from OR = 1.53 (95% CI, 1.32-1.76) to OR = 2.86 (95% CI, 1.97-4.14). High costs (31.7%), not having enough money (31.2%), and supplies/services not covered (24.2%) were the most common reasons for reporting trouble getting needed health care. Medicare beneficiaries at higher stages of activity limitations reported trouble getting needed health care, which was commonly attributed to financial barriers.

A self-adaption compensation control for hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages based on Pi-sigma fuzzy neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Rui; Zhou, Miaolei

2018-04-01

Piezo-actuated stages are widely applied in the high-precision positioning field nowadays. However, the inherent hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages greatly deteriorates the positioning accuracy of piezo-actuated stages. This paper first utilizes a nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model based on the Pi-sigma fuzzy neural network (PSFNN) to construct an online rate-dependent hysteresis model for describing the hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages. In order to improve the convergence rate of PSFNN and modeling precision, we adopt the gradient descent algorithm featuring three different learning factors to update the model parameters. The convergence of the NARMAX model based on the PSFNN is analyzed effectively. To ensure that the parameters can converge to the true values, the persistent excitation condition is considered. Then, a self-adaption compensation controller is designed for eliminating the hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages. A merit of the proposed controller is that it can directly eliminate the complex hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages without any inverse dynamic models. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and control methods, a set of comparative experiments are performed on piezo-actuated stages. Experimental results show that the proposed modeling and control methods have excellent performance.

Pathway Linking Internet Health Information Seeking to Better Health: A Moderated Mediation Study.

PubMed

Jiang, Shaohai; Street, Richard L

2017-08-01

The Internet increasingly has been recognized as an important medium with respect to population health. However, little is known about the mechanisms that underlie the potential impact of health-related Internet use on health outcomes. Based on the three-stage model of health promotion using interactive media, this study empirically tested a moderated mediation pathway model. Results showed that the effect of Internet health information seeking on three health outcomes (general, emotional, and physical) was completely mediated by respondents' access to social support resources. In addition, users' online health information seeking experience positively moderated this mediation path. The findings have significant theoretical and practical implications for the design of Internet-based health promotion resources to improve health outcomes.

Point estimation following two-stage adaptive threshold enrichment clinical trials.

PubMed

Kimani, Peter K; Todd, Susan; Renfro, Lindsay A; Stallard, Nigel

2018-05-31

Recently, several study designs incorporating treatment effect assessment in biomarker-based subpopulations have been proposed. Most statistical methodologies for such designs focus on the control of type I error rate and power. In this paper, we have developed point estimators for clinical trials that use the two-stage adaptive enrichment threshold design. The design consists of two stages, where in stage 1, patients are recruited in the full population. Stage 1 outcome data are then used to perform interim analysis to decide whether the trial continues to stage 2 with the full population or a subpopulation. The subpopulation is defined based on one of the candidate threshold values of a numerical predictive biomarker. To estimate treatment effect in the selected subpopulation, we have derived unbiased estimators, shrinkage estimators, and estimators that estimate bias and subtract it from the naive estimate. We have recommended one of the unbiased estimators. However, since none of the estimators dominated in all simulation scenarios based on both bias and mean squared error, an alternative strategy would be to use a hybrid estimator where the estimator used depends on the subpopulation selected. This would require a simulation study of plausible scenarios before the trial. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Trans-Theoretical Approach to Physical Activity Profile in General Population of Mashhad

PubMed Central

Shaye, Zahra Abbasi; Bazzaz, Mojtaba Mousavi; Vakili, Veda

2015-01-01

Regular physical-activity is necessity for a healthy lifestyle. Despite public health efforts, a minority of population are involved in healthy levels of physical-activity. This study provides evidence about exercise patterns and predictors of Mashhad-Iran population according to TTM change stages. In this cross-sectional study, we surveyed a total number of 564 participants from Mashhad in 2014 by using stages of change questionnaire. Analysis showed 23.4% of participants were in pre-contemplation stage, 18 in contemplation, 24.6% in preparation, 8.10% in action, 14.4% in maintenance and 11.5% were in termination phase. Age, gender, BMI, alcohol consumption, sleep duration, having compeer and encouragement were identified as predictors of pre-contemplation stage. Genders, having company and using bicycle for transportation were predictors of termination phase. Tailor interventions based on the predictors to enhance the physical activity among specific subgroups would be of interest. PMID:26153203

The population health record: concepts, definition, design, and implementation.

PubMed

Friedman, Daniel J; Parrish, R Gibson

2010-01-01

In 1997, the American Medical Informatics Association proposed a US information strategy that included a population health record (PopHR). Despite subsequent progress on the conceptualization, development, and implementation of electronic health records and personal health records, minimal progress has occurred on the PopHR. Adapting International Organization for Standarization electronic health records standards, we define the PopHR as a repository of statistics, measures, and indicators regarding the state of and influences on the health of a defined population, in computer processable form, stored and transmitted securely, and accessible by multiple authorized users. The PopHR is based upon an explicit population health framework and a standardized logical information model. PopHR purpose and uses, content and content sources, functionalities, business objectives, information architecture, and system architecture are described. Barriers to implementation and enabling factors and a three-stage implementation strategy are delineated.

Primary care physicians' perceived barriers and facilitators to conservative care for older adults with chronic kidney disease: design of a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Tam-Tham, Helen; Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Campbell, David; Thomas, Chandra; Quinn, Robert; Fruetel, Karen; King-Shier, Kathryn

2016-01-01

Guideline committees have identified the need for research to inform the provision of conservative care for older adults with stage 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) who have a high burden of comorbidity or functional impairment. We will use both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to provide a comprehensive understanding of barriers and facilitators to care for these patients in primary care. Our objectives are to (1) interview primary care physicians to determine their perspectives of conservative care for older adults with stage 5 CKD and (2) survey primary care physicians to determine the prevalence of key barriers and facilitators to provision of conservative care for older adults with stage 5 CKD. A sequential exploratory mixed methods design was adopted for this study. The first phase of the study will involve fundamental qualitative description and the second phase will be a cross-sectional population-based survey. The research is conducted in Alberta, Canada. The participants are primary care physicians with experience in providing care for older adults with stage 5 CKD not planning on initiating dialysis. The first objective will be achieved by undertaking interviews with primary care physicians from southern Alberta. Participants will be selected purposively to include physicians with a range of characteristics (e.g., age, gender, and location of clinical practice). Interviews will be recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using conventional content analysis to generate themes. The second objective will be achieved by undertaking a population-based survey of primary care physicians in Alberta. The questionnaire will be developed based on the findings from the qualitative interviews and pilot tested for face and content validity. Physicians will be provided multiple options to complete the questionnaire including mail, fax, and online methods. Descriptive statistics and associations between demographic factors and barriers and facilitators to care will be analyzed using regression models. A potential limitation of this mixed methods study is its cross-sectional nature. This work will inform development of clinical resources and tools for care of older adults with stage 5 CKD, to address barriers and enable facilitators to community-based conservative care.

Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

2016-04-01

Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis.

Duration of second stage of labor and instrumental delivery as risk factors for severe perineal lacerations: population-based study.

PubMed

Simic, Marija; Cnattingius, Sven; Petersson, Gunnar; Sandström, Anna; Stephansson, Olof

2017-02-21

We sought to investigate the impact of the duration of second stage of labor on risk of severe perineal lacerations (third and fourth degree). This population based cohort study was conducted in the Stockholm/Gotland region, Sweden, 2008-2014. Study population included 52 211 primiparous women undergoing vaginal delivery with cephalic presentation at term. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to calculate crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR), using 95% confidence intervals (CI). Main exposure was duration of second stage of labor, and main outcome was risks of severe perineal lacerations (third and fourth degree). Risk of severe perineal lacerations increased with duration of second stage of labor. Compared with a second stage of labor of 1 h or less, women with a second stage of more than 2 h had an increased risk (aOR 1.42; 95% CI 1.28-1.58). Compared with non-instrumental vaginal deliveries, the risk was elevated among instrumental vaginal deliveries (aOR 2.24; 95% CI 2.07-2.42). The risk of perineal laceration increased with duration of second stage of labor until less than 3 h in both instrumental and non-instrumental vaginal deliveries, but after 3 h, the ORs did not further increase. After adjustments for potential confounders, macrosomia (birth weight > 4 500 g) and occiput posterior fetal position were risk factors of severe perineal lacerations. The risk of severe perineal laceration increases with duration until the third hour of second stage of labor. Instrumental delivery is the most significant risk factor for severe lacerations, followed by duration of second stage of labor, fetal size and occiput posterior fetal position.

Stage-based interventions for smoking cessation.

PubMed

Cahill, Kate; Lancaster, Tim; Green, Natasha

2010-11-10

The transtheoretical model is the most widely known of several stage-based theories of behaviour. It proposes that smokers move through a discrete series of motivational stages before they quit successfully. These are precontemplation (no thoughts of quitting), contemplation (thinking about quitting), preparation (planning to quit in the next 30 days), action (quitting successfully for up to six months), and maintenance (no smoking for more than six months). According to this influential model, interventions which help people to stop smoking should be tailored to their stage of readiness to quit, and are designed to move them forward through subsequent stages to eventual success. People in the preparation and action stages of quitting would require different types of support from those in precontemplation or contemplation. Our primary objective was to test the effectiveness of stage-based interventions in helping smokers to quit. We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group's specialised register for trials, using the terms ('stage* of change', 'transtheoretical model*', 'trans-theoretical model*, 'precaution adoption model*', 'health action model', 'processes of change questionnaire*', 'readiness to change', 'tailor*') and 'smoking' in the title or abstract, or as keywords. The latest search was in August 2010. We included randomized controlled trials, which compared stage-based interventions with non-stage-based controls, with 'usual care' or with assessment only. We excluded trials which did not report a minimum follow-up period of six months from start of treatment, and those which measured stage of change but did not modify their intervention in the light of it. We extracted data in duplicate on the participants, the dose and duration of intervention, the outcome measures, the randomization procedure, concealment of allocation, and completeness of follow up.The main outcome was abstinence from smoking for at least six months. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence, and preferred biochemically validated rates where reported. Where appropriate we performed meta-analysis to estimate a pooled risk ratio, using the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect model. We found 41 trials (>33,000 participants) which met our inclusion criteria. Four trials, which directly compared the same intervention in stage-based and standard versions, found no clear advantage for the staging component. Stage-based versus standard self-help materials (two trials) gave a relative risk (RR) of 0.93 (95% CI 0.62 to 1.39). Stage-based versus standard counselling (two trials) gave a relative risk of 1.00 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.22). Six trials of stage-based self-help systems versus any standard self-help support demonstrated a benefit for the staged groups, with an RR of 1.27 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.59). Twelve trials comparing stage-based self help with 'usual care' or assessment-only gave an RR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.48). Thirteen trials of stage-based individual counselling versus any control condition gave an RR of 1.24 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.42). These findings are consistent with the proven effectiveness of these interventions in their non-stage-based versions. The evidence was unclear for telephone counselling, interactive computer programmes or training of doctors or lay supporters. This uncertainty may be due in part to smaller numbers of trials. Based on four trials using direct comparisons, stage-based self-help interventions (expert systems and/or tailored materials) and individual counselling were neither more nor less effective than their non-stage-based equivalents. Thirty-one trials of stage-based self help or counselling interventions versus any control condition demonstrated levels of effectiveness which were comparable with their non-stage-based counterparts. Providing these forms of practical support to those trying to quit appears to be more productive than not intervening. However, the additional value of adapting the intervention to the smoker's stage of change is uncertain. The evidence is not clear for other types of staged intervention, including telephone counselling, interactive computer programmes and training of physicians or lay supporters. The evidence does not support the restriction of quitting advice and encouragement only to those smokers perceived to be in the preparation and action stages.

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Nephrologists and Integrated Kidney Disease Care: Roles and Skills Essential for Nephrologists for Future Success.

PubMed

Nissenson, Allen R; Maddux, Franklin W

2017-07-01

As the costs of caring for patients with end-stage renal disease have grown, so has the pressure to provide high-quality care at a lower cost. Prompted in large part by regulatory and legislative changes, reimbursement is shifting from a fee-for-service environment to one of value-based payment models. Nephrologists in this new environment are increasingly responsible not only for direct patient care, but also for population management and the associated clinical outcomes for this vulnerable population. This Perspective article aims to recognize the key role and skills needed in order to successfully practice within these new value-based care models. The new paradigm of delivering and financing care also presents opportunities for nephrologists to shape how care is delivered, define meaningful quality metrics, and share in the financial outcomes of these approaches. Though it will take time, the training and mind-set of nephrologists must evolve to accommodate these expanded practice expectations required by a system that demands measurement, reporting, accountability, and improvement, not only for individuals but also for populations of patients. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accurate Prediction of Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using Stem Cell-Derived Populations

PubMed Central

Szkolnicka, Dagmara; Farnworth, Sarah L.; Lucendo-Villarin, Baltasar; Storck, Christopher; Zhou, Wenli; Iredale, John P.; Flint, Oliver

2014-01-01

Despite major progress in the knowledge and management of human liver injury, there are millions of people suffering from chronic liver disease. Currently, the only cure for end-stage liver disease is orthotopic liver transplantation; however, this approach is severely limited by organ donation. Alternative approaches to restoring liver function have therefore been pursued, including the use of somatic and stem cell populations. Although such approaches are essential in developing scalable treatments, there is also an imperative to develop predictive human systems that more effectively study and/or prevent the onset of liver disease and decompensated organ function. We used a renewable human stem cell resource, from defined genetic backgrounds, and drove them through developmental intermediates to yield highly active, drug-inducible, and predictive human hepatocyte populations. Most importantly, stem cell-derived hepatocytes displayed equivalence to primary adult hepatocytes, following incubation with known hepatotoxins. In summary, we have developed a serum-free, scalable, and shippable cell-based model that faithfully predicts the potential for human liver injury. Such a resource has direct application in human modeling and, in the future, could play an important role in developing renewable cell-based therapies. PMID:24375539

Nonlinear Friction Compensation of Ball Screw Driven Stage Based on Variable Natural Length Spring Model and Disturbance Observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asaumi, Hiroyoshi; Fujimoto, Hiroshi

Ball screw driven stages are used for industrial equipments such as machine tools and semiconductor equipments. Fast and precise positioning is necessary to enhance productivity and microfabrication technology of the system. The rolling friction of the ball screw driven stage deteriorate the positioning performance. Therefore, the control system based on the friction model is necessary. In this paper, we propose variable natural length spring model (VNLS model) as the friction model. VNLS model is simple and easy to implement as friction controller. Next, we propose multi variable natural length spring model (MVNLS model) as the friction model. MVNLS model can represent friction characteristic of the stage precisely. Moreover, the control system based on MVNLS model and disturbance observer is proposed. Finally, the simulation results and experimental results show the advantages of the proposed method.

Spatial effects in discrete generation population models.

PubMed

Carrillo, C; Fife, P

2005-02-01

A framework is developed for constructing a large class of discrete generation, continuous space models of evolving single species populations and finding their bifurcating patterned spatial distributions. Our models involve, in separate stages, the spatial redistribution (through movement laws) and local regulation of the population; and the fundamental properties of these events in a homogeneous environment are found. Emphasis is placed on the interaction of migrating individuals with the existing population through conspecific attraction (or repulsion), as well as on random dispersion. The nature of the competition of these two effects in a linearized scenario is clarified. The bifurcation of stationary spatially patterned population distributions is studied, with special attention given to the role played by that competition.

Motivation and substance use outcomes among adolescents in a school-based intervention.

PubMed

Serafini, Kelly; Shipley, Leandra; Stewart, David G

2016-02-01

The stages of change (Precontemplation, Contemplation, Preparation, Action, and Maintenance) have been well studied in adult populations. However, fewer studies have examined how the stages of change are related to adolescent substance use. Furthermore, there have been no studies that have examined how the stages of change relate to outcomes in a school-based intervention. To better capture adolescent motivation, we added an additional group to the Transtheoretical Model of Change, which we titled Coerced Action, to represent adolescents that made changes to their substance use despite low problem recognition (representing the internal motivation of Precontemplation and the change behaviors of the Action group). We then examined how the stages of change were related to a thorough assessment of substance use at baseline and corresponding treatment outcomes. Our sample consisted of 264 adolescents (mean age: 16.1, 44.5% Caucasian, 37.5% female) who participated in an 8-week, school-based Motivational Enhancement intervention. Results indicated significant group differences across the stages of change in substance use patterns (alcohol use, negative consequences, affective dysregulation), as well as treatment outcomes (alcohol use and negative consequences). For instance, adolescents in the Action group demonstrated more negative consequences at 16weeks follow-up than those in Precontemplation and Coerced Action, F(1, 3)=8.23, p<.001. The Coerced Action group reported the most alcohol use at 16weeks follow-up, although the finding was not significant when post-hoc tests were conducted. This study provides meaningful support for the assessment of motivation among adolescent substance users within school-based settings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro ovine articular chondrocyte proliferation: experiments and modelling.

PubMed

Mancuso, L; Liuzzo, M I; Fadda, S; Pisu, M; Cincotti, A; Arras, M; La Nasa, G; Concas, A; Cao, G

2010-06-01

This study focuses on analysis of in vitro cultures of chondrocytes from ovine articular cartilage. Isolated cells were seeded in Petri dishes, then expanded to confluence and phenotypically characterized by flow cytometry. The sigmoidal temporal profile of total counts was obtained by classic haemocytometry and corresponding cell size distributions were measured electronically using a Coulter Counter. A mathematical model recently proposed (1) was adopted for quantitative interpretation of these experimental data. The model is based on a 1-D (that is, mass-structured), single-staged population balance approach capable of taking into account contact inhibition at confluence. The model's parameters were determined by fitting measured total cell counts and size distributions. Model reliability was verified by predicting cell proliferation counts and corresponding size distributions at culture times longer than those used when tuning the model's parameters. It was found that adoption of cell mass as the intrinsic characteristic of a growing chondrocyte population enables sigmoidal temporal profiles of total counts in the Petri dish, as well as cell size distributions at 'balanced growth', to be adequately predicted.

Modeling the effect of seasonal variation in ambient temperature on the transmission dynamics of a pathogen with a free-living stage: example of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd.

PubMed

Gautam, Raju; Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Neill, William H; Döpfer, Dörte; Kaspar, Charles; Ivanek, Renata

2011-10-01

To explore the potential role of ambient temperature on infection transmission dynamics for pathogens, we used Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd and the surrounding farm environment as a model system. For this system, we developed a mathematical model in which a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model of infection spread through the host population is coupled with a metapopulation model of E. coli O157:H7 free-living stage in the environment allowing bacterial growth to be influenced by ambient temperature. Model results indicate that seasonal variation in ambient temperature could have a considerable impact on pathogen populations in the environment, specifically on barn surfaces and in water troughs, and consequently on the prevalence of infection in the host population. Based on model assumptions, contaminated drinking water was the most important pathway of E. coli O157:H7 transmission to cattle. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water-borne transmission is amplified during the warmer months if the amount of standing drinking water available to the cattle herd is high. This is because warmer ambient temperature favors faster pathogen replication which when combined with slower water replacement-rate due to high amount of available standing water leads to a greater pathogen load in drinking water. These results offer a possible explanation of the seasonal variation in E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in cattle and suggest that improved drinking-water management could be used for control of this infection in cattle. Our study demonstrates how consideration of ambient temperature in transmission cycles of pathogens able to survive and grow in the environment outside the host could offer novel perspectives on the spread and control of infections caused by such pathogens. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling mechanical inhomogeneities in small populations of proliferating monolayers and spheroids.

PubMed

Lejeune, Emma; Linder, Christian

2018-06-01

Understanding the mechanical behavior of multicellular monolayers and spheroids is fundamental to tissue culture, organism development, and the early stages of tumor growth. Proliferating cells in monolayers and spheroids experience mechanical forces as they grow and divide and local inhomogeneities in the mechanical microenvironment can cause individual cells within the multicellular system to grow and divide at different rates. This differential growth, combined with cell division and reorganization, leads to residual stress. Multiple different modeling approaches have been taken to understand and predict the residual stresses that arise in growing multicellular systems, particularly tumor spheroids. Here, we show that by using a mechanically robust agent-based model constructed with the peridynamic framework, we gain a better understanding of residual stresses in multicellular systems as they grow from a single cell. In particular, we focus on small populations of cells (1-100 s) where population behavior is highly stochastic and prior investigation has been limited. We compare the average strain energy density of cells in monolayers and spheroids using different growth and division rules and find that, on average, cells in spheroids have a higher strain energy density than cells in monolayers. We also find that cells in the interior of a growing spheroid are, on average, in compression. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for stochastic fluctuations in the mechanical environment, particularly when the cellular response to mechanical cues is nonlinear. The results presented here serve as a starting point for both further investigation with agent-based models, and for the incorporation of major findings from agent-based models into continuum scale models when explicit representation of individual cells is not computationally feasible.

Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in a large European cohort: results from the population-based Gutenberg Health Study.

PubMed

Korb, Christina A; Kottler, Ulrike B; Wolfram, Christian; Hoehn, René; Schulz, Andreas; Zwiener, Isabella; Wild, Philipp S; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Mirshahi, Alireza

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to describe the sex- and age-specific prevalence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and its correlation with urban or rural residence in a large and relatively young European cohort. We evaluated fundus photographs from participants in the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS), a population-based, prospective, observational, single-centre study in the Rhineland-Palatine region in midwestern Germany. The participants were 35-74 years of age at enrolment. The fundus images were classified as described in the Rotterdam Study and were graded independently by two experienced ophthalmologists (CK and UBK) based on the presence of hard and soft drusen, retinal pigmentary abnormalities, and signs of atrophic or neovascular age-related macular generation (AMD). Photographs from 4,340 participants were available for grading. Small, hard drusen (<63 μm, stages 0b and 0c) were present in 37.4% of participants (95% confidence interval [CI], stage 0b, 31.6% [30.3-33.7]; stage 0c, 5.8% [5.1-6.5]). Early AMD (soft drusen, pigmentary abnormalities, stages 1-3) was present in 3.8% of individuals in the youngest age group (35-44 years) (95% CI, stage 1a, 0.4% [0.3-0.5%]; stage 1b, 3.2% [2.9-3.5%]; stage 2a, 0.1% [0.1-0.2%]; stage 2b, 0% [0-0.0%]; stage 3, 0.1% [0.1-0.2%]), whereas late AMD (stages 4a and 4b) did not appear in the youngest age group. In all age groups, signs of early AMD were detected in 11.9% of individuals (stage 1a, 2.1% [1.7-2.6]; stage 1b, 8.0% [7.2-8.8]; stage 2a, 1.0% [0.7-1.3]; stage 2b, 0.5% [0.3-0.7]; stage 3, 0.3% [0.2-0.6]). Late AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular AMD) was found in 0.2% of individuals (stage 4a, 0.1 % [0.0-0.2]; stage 4b, 0.1% [0.0-0.2]). AMD increased significantly with age (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% CI, 1.08-1.10). Sex, iris colour, and residence (rural vs. urban) were not associated with different rates of AMD. In this study, the prevalence of AMD increased dramatically with age; however, although AMD is usually thought to occur after age 50, signs of early AMD were found in 3.8% of individuals in the youngest age group (younger than 45 years). This population-based sample is the first to provide substantial epidemiologic data from a large German cohort, including data on macular degeneration in younger age groups and incidence data after recall.

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Developing and validating a novel metabolic tumor volume risk stratification system for supplementing non-small cell lung cancer staging.

PubMed

Pu, Yonglin; Zhang, James X; Liu, Haiyan; Appelbaum, Daniel; Meng, Jianfeng; Penney, Bill C

2018-06-07

We hypothesized that whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb) could be used to supplement non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) staging due to its independent prognostic value. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel MTVwb risk stratification system to supplement NSCLC staging. We performed an IRB-approved retrospective review of 935 patients with NSCLC and FDG-avid tumor divided into modeling and validation cohorts based on the type of PET/CT scanner used for imaging. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted by dividing the patient population into two randomized cohorts. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratification system. The cut-off values (10.0, 53.4 and 155.0 mL) between the MTVwb quartiles of the modeling cohort were applied to both the modeling and validation cohorts to determine each patient's MTVwb risk stratum. The survival analyses showed that a lower MTVwb risk stratum was associated with better overall survival (all p < 0.01), independent of TNM stage together with other clinical prognostic factors, and the discriminatory power of the MTVwb risk stratification system, as measured by Gönen and Heller's concordance index, was not significantly different from that of TNM stage in both cohorts. Also, the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratum was robust in the two randomized cohorts. The discordance rate between the MTVwb risk stratum and TNM stage or substage was 45.1% in the modeling cohort and 50.3% in the validation cohort. This study developed and validated a novel MTVwb risk stratification system, which has prognostic value independent of the TNM stage and other clinical prognostic factors in NSCLC, suggesting that it could be used for further NSCLC pretreatment assessment and for refining treatment decisions in individual patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening in Turkey, a Developing Country: Results from Bahçeşehir Mammography Screening Project.

PubMed

Özmen, Vahit; Gürdal, Sibel Ö; Cabioğlu, Neslihan; Özcinar, Beyza; Özaydın, A Nilüfer; Kayhan, Arda; Arıbal, Erkin; Sahin, Cennet; Saip, Pınar; Alagöz, Oğuzhan

2017-07-01

We used the results from the first three screening rounds of Bahcesehir Mammography Screening Project (BMSP), a 10-year (2009-2019) and the first organized population-based screening program implemented in a county of Istanbul, Turkey, to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of a population-based mammography screening program in Turkey. Two screening strategies were compared: BMSP (includes three biennial screens for women between 40-69) and Turkish National Breast Cancer Registry Program (TNBCRP) which includes no organized population-based screening. Costs were estimated using direct data from the BMSP project and the reimbursement rates of Turkish Social Security Administration. The life-years saved by BMSP were estimated using the stage distribution observed with BMSP and TNBCRP. A total of 67 women (out of 7234 screened women) were diagnosed with breast cancer in BMSP. The stage distribution for AJCC stages O, I, II, III, IV was 19.4%, 50.8%, 20.9%, 7.5%, 1.5% and 4.9%, 26.6%, 44.9%, 20.8%, 2.8% with BMSP and TNBCRP, respectively. The BMSP program is expected to save 279.46 life years over TNBCRP with an additional cost of $677.171, which implies an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2.423 per saved life year. Since the ICER is smaller than the Gross Demostic Product (GDP) per capita in Turkey ($10.515 in 2014), BMSP program is highly cost-effective and remains cost-effective in the sensitivity analysis. Mammography screening may change the stage distribution of breast cancer in Turkey. Furthermore, an organized population-based screening program may be cost-effective in Turkey and in other developing countries. More research is needed to better estimate life-years saved with screening and further validate the findings of our study.

Analysis on 3RWB model (Reduce, reuse, recycle, and waste bank) in comprehensive waste management toward community-based zero waste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Affandy, Nur Azizah; Isnaini, Enik; Laksono, Arif Budi

2017-06-01

Waste management becomes a serious issue in Indonesia. Significantly, waste production in Lamongan Regency is increasing in linear with the growth of population and current people activities, creating a gap between waste production and waste management. It is a critical problem that should be solved immediately. As a reaction to the issue, the Government of Lamongan Regency has enacted a new policy regarding waste management through a program named Lamongan Green and Clean (LGC). From the collected data, it showed that the "wet waste" or "organic waste" was approximately 63% of total domestic waste. With such condition, it can be predicted that the trashes will decompose quite quickly. From the observation, it was discovered that the generated waste was approximately 0.25 kg/person/day. Meanwhile, the number of population in Tumenggungan Village, Lamongan (data obtained from Monograph in Lamongan district, 2012) was 4651 people. Thus, it can be estimated the total waste in Lamongan was approximately 0.25 kg/person/day x 4651 characters = 930 kg/day. Within 3RWB Model, several stages have to be conducted. In the planning stage, the promotion of self-awareness among the communities in selecting and managing waste due to their interest in a potential benefit, is done. It indicated that community's awareness of waste management waste grew significantly. Meanwhile in socialization stage, each village staff, environmental expert, and policymaker should bear significant role in disseminating the awareness among the people. In the implementation phase, waste management with 3RWB model is promoted by applying it among of the community, starting from selection, waste management, until recycled products sale through the waste bank. In evaluation stage, the village managers, environmental expert, and waste managers are expected to regularly supervise and evaluate the whole activity of the waste management.

Seasonal reproduction leads to population collapse and an Allee effect in a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model when mortality rate increases

PubMed Central

de Roos, André M.

2017-01-01

Many populations collapse suddenly when reaching low densities even if they have abundant food conditions, a phenomenon known as an Allee effect. Such collapses can have disastrous consequences, for example, for loss of biodiversity. In this paper, we formulate a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model in which adults only reproduce at the beginning of each growing season, and investigate the effect of an increasing stage-independent background mortality rate of the consumer. As the main difference with previously studied continuous-time models, seasonal reproduction can result in an Allee effect and consumer population collapses at high consumer mortality rate. However, unlike the mechanisms reported in the literature, in our model the Allee effect results from the time difference between the maturation of juveniles and the reproduction of adults. The timing of maturation plays a crucial role because it not only determines the body size of the individuals at maturation but also influences the duration of the period during which adults can invest in reproductive energy, which together determine the reproductive output at the end of the season. We suggest that there exists an optimal timing of maturation and that consumer persistence is promoted if individuals mature later in the season at a larger body size, rather than maturing early, despite high food availability supporting rapid growth. PMID:29088273

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; McKann, Patrick C.; Pruitt, Lori; King, R. Andrew; Runge, Michael C.; Russell, Robin E.

2013-01-01

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

Health behavior and behavioral economics: economic preferences and physical activity stages of change in a low-income African-American community.

PubMed

Leonard, Tammy; Shuval, Kerem; de Oliveira, Angela; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Eckel, Catherine; Murdoch, James C

2013-01-01

To examine the relationship between physical activity stages of change and preferences for financial risk and time. A cross-sectional, community-based study. A low-income, urban, African-American neighborhood. One hundred sixty-nine adults. Self-reported physical activity stages of change-precontemplation to maintenance, objectively measured body mass index and waist circumference, and economic preferences for time and risk measured via incentivized economic experiments. Multivariable ordered logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity stages of change and economic preferences while controlling for demographic characteristics of the individuals. Individuals who are more tolerant of financial risks (odds ratio [OR] = 1.31, p < .05) and whose time preferences indicate more patience (OR = 1.68, p < .01) are more likely to be in a more advanced physical activity stage (e.g., from preparation to action). The likelihood of being in the maintenance stage increases by 5.6 and 10.9 percentage points for each one-unit increase in financial risk tolerance or one-unit increase in the time preference measure, respectively. Greater tolerance of financial risk and more patient time preferences among this low-income ethnic minority population are associated with a more advanced physical activity stage. Further exploration is clearly warranted in larger and more representative samples.

Incorporating a Drug Information Consult into a Pharmacy Practice Course to Build Literature Search and Evaluation Skills Through a 3-Stage Model.

PubMed

Wittman, Deborah; Kovera, Craig; Sullivan, Maureen; Rumore, Martha M

2017-06-01

Pharmacy students need to be equipped with skills to research and evaluate literature to effectively apply evidence-based medicine (EBM) in practice. To prepare them, a 3-stage approach to writing a drug information consult (3sDIC) was incorporated into a pharmacy course. The primary objective was to assess students' abilities to retrieve and analyze literature pursuant to a drug information consult. Secondary objectives were to examine feasibility of faculty participation and continuation of the assignment. Ninety students were given a clinical scenario about a patient. The assignment consisted of 3 stages incorporating use of the Population, Intervention, Comparison intervention, Outcome (PICO) method and modified systematic approach (MSA) for stage 1, evaluation of primary literature to write a draft for stage 2, and stage 3, the final consult. All 3 stages were reviewed and graded by faculty. All students completed the 3sDIC, with no grade failures. The rubric employed by faculty was effective, providing students the opportunity to improve the consult. The 3sDIC was found to be feasible with adequate faculty support. The 3sDIC, although not a substitute for a complete drug information course, demonstrated a streamlined approach for Pharmacy year 2 (P2) students to acquire and develop drug information skills.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-03-21

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner's Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual's death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-01-01

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner’s Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual’s death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. PMID:25637763

Biological Control of the Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma infestans with the Entomopathogenic Fungus Beauveria bassiana Combined with an Aggregation Cue: Field, Laboratory and Mathematical Modeling Assessment

PubMed Central

Forlani, Lucas; Pedrini, Nicolás; Girotti, Juan R.; Mijailovsky, Sergio J.; Cardozo, Rubén M.; Gentile, Alberto G.; Hernández-Suárez, Carlos M.; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Juárez, M. Patricia

2015-01-01

Background Current Chagas disease vector control strategies, based on chemical insecticide spraying, are growingly threatened by the emergence of pyrethroid-resistant Triatoma infestans populations in the Gran Chaco region of South America. Methodology and findings We have already shown that the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana has the ability to breach the insect cuticle and is effective both against pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant T. infestans, in laboratory as well as field assays. It is also known that T. infestans cuticle lipids play a major role as contact aggregation pheromones. We estimated the effectiveness of pheromone-based infection boxes containing B. bassiana spores to kill indoor bugs, and its effect on the vector population dynamics. Laboratory assays were performed to estimate the effect of fungal infection on female reproductive parameters. The effect of insect exuviae as an aggregation signal in the performance of the infection boxes was estimated both in the laboratory and in the field. We developed a stage-specific matrix model of T. infestans to describe the fungal infection effects on insect population dynamics, and to analyze the performance of the biopesticide device in vector biological control. Conclusions The pheromone-containing infective box is a promising new tool against indoor populations of this Chagas disease vector, with the number of boxes per house being the main driver of the reduction of the total domestic bug population. This ecologically safe approach is the first proven alternative to chemical insecticides in the control of T. infestans. The advantageous reduction in vector population by delayed-action fungal biopesticides in a contained environment is here shown supported by mathematical modeling. PMID:25969989

Racial differences in tumor stage and survival for colorectal cancer in an insured population.

PubMed

Doubeni, Chyke A; Field, Terry S; Buist, Diana S M; Korner, Eli J; Bigelow, Carol; Lamerato, Lois; Herrinton, Lisa; Quinn, Virginia P; Hart, Gene; Hornbrook, Mark C; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Wagner, Edward H

2007-02-01

Despite declining death rates from colorectal cancer (CRC), racial disparities have continued to increase. In this study, the authors examined disparities in a racially diverse group of insured patients. This study was conducted among patients who were diagnosed with CRC from 1993 to 1998, when they were enrolled in integrated healthcare systems. Patients were identified from tumor registries and were linked to information in administrative databases. The sample was restricted to non-Hispanic whites (n = 10,585), non-Hispanic blacks (n = 1479), Hispanics (n = 985), and Asians/Pacific Islanders (n = 909). Differences in tumor stage and survival were analyzed by using polytomous and Cox regression models, respectively. In multivariable regression analyses, blacks were more likely than whites to have distant or unstaged tumors. In Cox models that were adjusted for nonmutable factors, blacks had a higher risk of death from CRC (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.06-1.30). Hispanics had a risk of death similar to whites (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92-1.18), whereas Asians/Pacific Islanders had a lower risk of death from CRC (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.78-1.02). Adjustment for tumor stage decreased the HR to 1.11 for blacks, and the addition of receipt of surgical therapy to the model decreased the HR further to 1.06. The HR among Hispanics and Asians/Pacific Islanders was stable to adjustment for tumor stage and surgical therapy. The relation between race and survival from CRC was complex and appeared to be related to differences in tumor stage and therapy received, even in insured populations. Targeted interventions to improve the use of effective screening and treatment among vulnerable populations may be needed to eliminate disparities in CRC. (c) 2007 American Cancer Society.

Cost-effectiveness of Early Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1 by Stage of Liver Fibrosis in a US Treatment-Naive Population

PubMed Central

Chahal, Harinder S.; Marseille, Elliot A.; Tice, Jeffrey A.; Pearson, Steve D.; Ollendorf, Daniel A.; Fox, Rena K.; Kahn, James G.

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Novel treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are highly efficacious but costly. Thus, many insurers cover therapy only in advanced fibrosis stages. The added health benefits and costs of early treatment are unknown. OBJECTIVE To assess the cost-effectiveness of (1) treating all patients with HCV vs only those with advanced fibrosis and (2) treating each stage of fibrosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study used a decision-analytic model for the treatment of HCV genotype 1. The model used a lifetime horizon and societal perspective and was representative of all US patients with HCV genotype 1 who had not received previous treatment. Comparisons in the model included antiviral treatment of all fibrosis stages (METAVIR [Meta-analysis of Histological Data in Virial Hepatitis] stages F0 [no fibrosis] to F4 [cirrhosis]) vs treatment of stages F3 (numerous septa without cirrhosis) and F4 only and by specific fibrosis stage. Data were collected from March 1 to September 1, 2014, and analyzed from September 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015. INTERVENTIONS Six HCV therapy options (particularly combined sofosbuvir and ledipasvir therapy) or no treatment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cost and health outcomes were measured using total medical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as the difference in costs between strategies divided by the difference in QALYs. RESULTS We simulated 1000 individuals, but present the results normalized to a single HCV-infected person. In the base-case analysis, among patients receiving 8 or 12 weeks of sofosbuvir-ledipasvir treatment, treating all fibrosis stages compared with treating stages F3 and F4 adds 0.73 QALYs and $28 899, for an ICER of $39 475 per QALY gained. Treating at stage F2 (portal fibrosis with rare septa) costs $19 833 per QALY gained vs waiting until stage F3; treating at stage F1 (portal fibrosis without septa), $81 165 per QALY gained compared with waiting until stage F2; and treating at stage F0, $187 065 per QALY gained compared with waiting until stage F1. Results for other regimens show a similar pattern. At base-case drug prices, treating 50% of all eligible US patients with HCV genotype 1 would cost $53 billion. In sensitivity analyses, the ICER for treating all stages vs treating stages F3 and F4 was most sensitive to cohort age, drug costs, utility values in stages F1 and F2, and percentage of patients eligible for 8-week therapy. Except for patients aged 70 years, the ICER remains less than $100 000 per QALY gained. A 46% reduction in cost of sofosbuvir-ledipasvir therapy decreases the ICER for treating at all fibrosis stages by 48%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this simulated model, treating HCV infection at early stages of fibrosis appeared to improve health outcomes and to be cost-effective but incurred substantial aggregate costs. The findings may have implications for health care coverage policies and clinical decision making. PMID:26595724

Self-Organizing and Stochastic Behaviors During the Regeneration of Hair Stem Cells

PubMed Central

Plikus, Maksim V.; Baker, Ruth E.; Chen, Chih-Chiang; Fare, Clyde; de la Cruz, Damon; Andl, Thomas; Maini, Philip K.; Millar, Sarah E.; Widelitz, Randall; Chuong, Cheng-Ming

2012-01-01

Stem cells cycle through active and quiescent states. Large populations of stem cells in an organ may cycle randomly or in a coordinated manner. Although stem cell cycling within single hair follicles has been studied, less is known about regenerative behavior in a hair follicle population. By combining predictive mathematical modeling with in vivo studies in mice and rabbits, we show that a follicle progresses through cycling stages by continuous integration of inputs from intrinsic follicular and extrinsic environmental signals based on universal patterning principles. Signaling from the WNT/bone morphogenetic protein activator/inhibitor pair is coopted to mediate interactions among follicles in the population. This regenerative strategy is robust and versatile because relative activator/inhibitor strengths can be modulated easily, adapting the organism to different physiological and evolutionary needs. PMID:21527712

Reproductive success of kittiwakes and murres in sequential stages of the nesting period: Relationships with diet and oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, Heather M.; Drummond, Brie A.; Benson, Anna-Marie; Paredes, Rosana

2014-11-01

Reproductive success is one of the most easily-measured and widely studied demographic parameters of colonial nesting seabirds. Nevertheless, factors affecting the sequential stages (egg laying, incubation, chick-rearing) of reproductive success are less understood. We investigated the separate sequential stages of reproductive success in piscivorous black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) using a 36-year dataset (1975-2010) on the major Pribilof Islands (St. Paul and St. George), which have recently had contrasting population trajectories. Our objectives were to evaluate how the proportion of successful nests varied among stages, and to quantify factors influencing the probability of nest success at each stage in each island. We modeled the probability of nest success at each stage using General Linear Mixed Models incorporating broad-scale and local climate variables, and diet as covariates as well as other measures of reproduction such as timing of breeding and reproductive output in the previous year and previous stage. For both species we found: (1) Success in previous stages of the breeding cycle and success in the prior year better explained overall success than any environmental variables. Phenology was also an important predictor of laying success for kittiwakes. (2) Fledging success was lower when chick diets contained oceanic fish found farther from the colonies and small invertebrates, rather than coastal fish species. (3) Differences in reproductive variables at St. Paul and St. George islands did not correspond to population trends between the two islands. Our results highlight the potential importance of adult condition and annual survival to kittiwake and murre productivity and ultimately, populations. Adult condition carrying over from the previous year ultimately seems to drive annual breeding success in a cascade effect. Furthermore, condition and survival appear to be important contributors to population dynamics at each island. Therefore, adult condition and survival prior to breeding, and factors that influence these parameters such as foraging conditions in the non-breeding season, may be important datasets for understanding drivers of seabird demography at the Pribilof Islands.

Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Limited Sampling Strategies Based on Healthy Volunteers for Monitoring of Ertapenem in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

PubMed

van Rijn, S P; Zuur, M A; van Altena, R; Akkerman, O W; Proost, J H; de Lange, W C M; Kerstjens, H A M; Touw, D J; van der Werf, T S; Kosterink, J G W; Alffenaar, J W C

2017-04-01

Ertapenem is a broad-spectrum carbapenem antibiotic whose activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis is being explored. Carbapenems have antibacterial activity when the plasma concentration exceeds the MIC at least 40% of the time (40% T MIC ). To assess the 40% T MIC in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients, a limited sampling strategy was developed using a population pharmacokinetic model based on data for healthy volunteers. A two-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was developed with data for 42 healthy volunteers using an iterative two-stage Bayesian method. External validation was performed by Bayesian fitting of the model developed with data for volunteers to the data for individual MDR-TB patients (in which the fitted values of the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h [AUC 0-24, fit values] were used) using the population model developed for volunteers as a prior. A Monte Carlo simulation ( n = 1,000) was used to evaluate limited sampling strategies. Additionally, the 40% T MIC with the free fraction ( f 40% T MIC ) of ertapenem in MDR-TB patients was estimated with the population pharmacokinetic model. The population pharmacokinetic model that was developed was shown to overestimate the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC 0-24 ) in MDR-TB patients by 6.8% (range, -17.2 to 30.7%). The best-performing limited sampling strategy, which had a time restriction of 0 to 6 h, was found to be sampling at 1 and 5 h ( r 2 = 0.78, mean prediction error = -0.33%, root mean square error = 5.5%). Drug exposure was overestimated by a mean percentage of 4.2% (range, -15.2 to 23.6%). When a free fraction of 5% was considered and the MIC was set at 0.5 mg/liter, the minimum f 40% T MIC would have been exceeded in 9 out of 12 patients. A population pharmacokinetic model and limited sampling strategy, developed using data from healthy volunteers, were shown to be adequate to predict ertapenem exposure in MDR-TB patients. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Limited Sampling Strategies Based on Healthy Volunteers for Monitoring of Ertapenem in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

van Rijn, S. P.; Zuur, M. A.; van Altena, R.; Akkerman, O. W.; Proost, J. H.; de Lange, W. C. M.; Kerstjens, H. A. M.; Touw, D. J.; van der Werf, T. S.; Kosterink, J. G. W.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Ertapenem is a broad-spectrum carbapenem antibiotic whose activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis is being explored. Carbapenems have antibacterial activity when the plasma concentration exceeds the MIC at least 40% of the time (40% TMIC). To assess the 40% TMIC in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients, a limited sampling strategy was developed using a population pharmacokinetic model based on data for healthy volunteers. A two-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was developed with data for 42 healthy volunteers using an iterative two-stage Bayesian method. External validation was performed by Bayesian fitting of the model developed with data for volunteers to the data for individual MDR-TB patients (in which the fitted values of the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h [AUC0–24, fit values] were used) using the population model developed for volunteers as a prior. A Monte Carlo simulation (n = 1,000) was used to evaluate limited sampling strategies. Additionally, the 40% TMIC with the free fraction (f 40% TMIC) of ertapenem in MDR-TB patients was estimated with the population pharmacokinetic model. The population pharmacokinetic model that was developed was shown to overestimate the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0–24) in MDR-TB patients by 6.8% (range, −17.2 to 30.7%). The best-performing limited sampling strategy, which had a time restriction of 0 to 6 h, was found to be sampling at 1 and 5 h (r2 = 0.78, mean prediction error = −0.33%, root mean square error = 5.5%). Drug exposure was overestimated by a mean percentage of 4.2% (range, −15.2 to 23.6%). When a free fraction of 5% was considered and the MIC was set at 0.5 mg/liter, the minimum f 40% TMIC would have been exceeded in 9 out of 12 patients. A population pharmacokinetic model and limited sampling strategy, developed using data from healthy volunteers, were shown to be adequate to predict ertapenem exposure in MDR-TB patients. PMID:28137814

A new method for calculating time-dependent atomic level populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.

1981-01-01

A method is described for reducing the number of levels to be dealt with in calculating time-dependent populations of atoms or ions in plasmas. The procedure effectively extends the collisional-radiative model to consecutive stages of ionization, treating ground and metastable levels explicitly and excited levels implicitly. Direct comparisons of full and simulated systems are carried out for five-level models.

A semi-Markov model for mitosis segmentation in time-lapse phase contrast microscopy image sequences of stem cell populations.

PubMed

Liu, An-An; Li, Kang; Kanade, Takeo

2012-02-01

We propose a semi-Markov model trained in a max-margin learning framework for mitosis event segmentation in large-scale time-lapse phase contrast microscopy image sequences of stem cell populations. Our method consists of three steps. First, we apply a constrained optimization based microscopy image segmentation method that exploits phase contrast optics to extract candidate subsequences in the input image sequence that contains mitosis events. Then, we apply a max-margin hidden conditional random field (MM-HCRF) classifier learned from human-annotated mitotic and nonmitotic sequences to classify each candidate subsequence as a mitosis or not. Finally, a max-margin semi-Markov model (MM-SMM) trained on manually-segmented mitotic sequences is utilized to reinforce the mitosis classification results, and to further segment each mitosis into four predefined temporal stages. The proposed method outperforms the event-detection CRF model recently reported by Huh as well as several other competing methods in very challenging image sequences of multipolar-shaped C3H10T1/2 mesenchymal stem cells. For mitosis detection, an overall precision of 95.8% and a recall of 88.1% were achieved. For mitosis segmentation, the mean and standard deviation for the localization errors of the start and end points of all mitosis stages were well below 1 and 2 frames, respectively. In particular, an overall temporal location error of 0.73 ± 1.29 frames was achieved for locating daughter cell birth events.

An energy-circuit population model for great egrets (Ardea alba) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jeff P.

1997-01-01

I simulated the annual population cycles of Great Egrets (Ardea alba) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, to provide a framework for evaluating the local population dynamics of nesting and foraging wading birds. The external forcing functions were solar energy, minimum air temperature, water depth, surface-water drying rate, and season. Solar input controlled the production of prey at moderate to high lake stages, but water area exerted primary control during a two-year drought. Modeling prey production as a linear function of water area resulted in underestimation of prey density during the drought, suggesting that prey organisms maintained high fecundity while concentrated in submerged vegetation at the lakeward fringe of the littoral zone. Simulation confirmed that large influxes of wading birds during the drought were the combined result of a regional refuge response and the availability of concentrated prey. Modeling immigration and emigration as primarily functions of the surface-water drying rate, rather than lake stage, resulted in a closer match of observed and simulated population trends for foraging birds, suggesting that the pattern of surface-water fluctuations was a more important factor than water depth. Simulation indicated an abrupt-threshold response rather than a linear association between foraging efficiency and low temperatures, which reduce activity levels of forage fishes. Great Egret breeder recruitment is primarily a function of prey availability, climate, and hydrologic trends, but simulation confirmed the concurrent involvement of a seasonal or physiological-readiness factor. An attractor function driven by high winter lake stages was necessary to reproduce observed patterns of breeder recruitment, suggesting that Great Egrets initiate nesting based on environmental cues that lead to peak food availability when nestlings are present. Poor correspondence of reproductive effort and nest productivity suggested that the drought compromised the birds' predictive abilities. The need to model breeder recruitment as a function of a maximum rate rather than the size of the local foraging population suggested that birds may nest on the lake even though on-lake foraging conditions are poor. Simulated and observed estimates of egg and hatching production did not match, suggesting that the causes of failure during incubation were complex or more localized than could be accounted for with lakewide hydrologic and climatic data. A forced increase in prey consumption of 12% was necessary to reproduce observed, high levels of nest productivity in 1990, which corresponded to the finding that panhandled fish constituted 10–12% of the biomass fed to Great Egret nestlings that year.

Use of a Smartphone for Collecting Data on River Discharge and Communication of Flood Risk.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena-Haro, S.; Lüthi, B.; Philippe, T.

2015-12-01

Although many developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning systems, the population affected in developing countries by flood events is unsettled. Even more, future climate development is likely to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events and therefore bigger impacts on the population can be expected.There are different types of flood forecasting systems, some are based on hydrologic models fed with rainfall predictions and observed river levels. Flood hazard maps are also used to increase preparedness in case of an extreme event, however these maps are static since they do not incorporate daily changing conditions on river stages. However, and especially in developing countries, data on river stages are scarce. Some of the reasons are that traditional fixed monitoring systems do not scale in terms of costs, repair is difficult as well as operation and maintenance, in addition vandalism poses additional challenges. Therefore there is a need of cheaper and easy-to-use systems for collecting information on river stage and discharge. We have developed a mobile device application for determining the water stage and discharge of open-channels (e.g. rivers, artificial channels, irrigation furrows). Via image processing the water level and surface velocity are measured, combining this information with priori knowledge on the channel geometry the discharge is estimated. River stage and discharge measurement via smart phones provides a non-intrusive, accurate and cost-effective monitoring method. No permanent installations, which can be flooded away, are needed. The only requirement is that the field of view contains two reference markers with known scale and with known position relative to the channel geometry, therefore operation and maintenance costs are very low. The other advantage of using smartphones, is that the data collected can be immediately sent via SMS to a central database. This information can be easily gathered for its use within models and redistributed, using the same channels, among interested stakeholders and the community.

Climate Change Impacts on River Temperature in the Southeastern United States: A Case Study of the Tennessee River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Mao, Y.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, climate change and population growth are expected to affect water and energy supply as well as demand in the southeastern United States. Changes in temperature and precipitation impact river flow and stream temperature with implications for hydropower generation, industrial and municipal water supply, cooling for thermo-electric power plants, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem functions and flood control. At the same time, water and energy demand are expected to change in response to temperature increase, population growth and changing crop water requirements. As part of a multi-institution study of the food-energy-water nexus in the southeastern U.S., we are developing coupled hydrological and stream temperature models that will be linked to water resources, power systems and crop models at a later stage. Here we evaluate the ability of our system to simulate water supply and stream temperature in the Tennessee River Basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model coupled to the River Basin Model (RBM), a 1-D semi-Lagrangian river temperature model, which has recently been expanded with a two-layer reservoir temperature model. Simulations with VIC-RBM were performed for the Tennessee River Basin at 1/8-degree spatial resolution and a temporal resolution of 1 day or less. Reservoir releases were prescribed based on historic operating rules. In future iterations, these releases will be modeled directly by a water resources model that incorporates flood control, and power and agricultural water demands. We compare simulated flows, as well as stream and reservoir temperatures with observed flows and temperatures throughout the basin. In preparation for later stages of the project, we also perform a set of climate change sensitivity experiments to evaluate how changes in climate may impact river and reservoir temperature.

Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

PubMed Central

Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

2016-01-01

Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis. PMID:27048866

An optimal stratified Simon two-stage design.

PubMed

Parashar, Deepak; Bowden, Jack; Starr, Colin; Wernisch, Lorenz; Mander, Adrian

2016-07-01

In Phase II oncology trials, therapies are increasingly being evaluated for their effectiveness in specific populations of interest. Such targeted trials require designs that allow for stratification based on the participants' molecular characterisation. A targeted design proposed by Jones and Holmgren (JH) Jones CL, Holmgren E: 'An adaptive Simon two-stage design for phase 2 studies of targeted therapies', Contemporary Clinical Trials 28 (2007) 654-661.determines whether a drug only has activity in a disease sub-population or in the wider disease population. Their adaptive design uses results from a single interim analysis to decide whether to enrich the study population with a subgroup or not; it is based on two parallel Simon two-stage designs. We study the JH design in detail and extend it by providing a few alternative ways to control the familywise error rate, in the weak sense as well as the strong sense. We also introduce a novel optimal design by minimising the expected sample size. Our extended design contributes to the much needed framework for conducting Phase II trials in stratified medicine. © 2016 The Authors Pharmaceutical Statistics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors Pharmaceutical Statistics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the Development of Cross-Cultural Competence in Soldiers

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

five stages of CQ development based on models from developmental psychology including Piaget’s Model of Cognitive Development ( Piaget , 1985) and...and competence development , the Stage Model of Cognitive Skill Acquisition (Ross et al., 2005), and the Bennett Developmental Model of... developmental stages of proficiency and expertise (see the Stage Model of Cognitive Development ). At this level, cross-cultural competence is highly refined and

Cost-Effectiveness of Magnetic Resonance Imaging with a New Contrast Agent for the Early Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease

PubMed Central

Biasutti, Maria; Dufour, Natacha; Ferroud, Clotilde; Dab, William; Temime, Laura

2012-01-01

Background Used as contrast agents for brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), markers for beta-amyloid deposits might allow early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of such a diagnostic test, MRI+CLP (contrastophore-linker-pharmacophore), should it become clinically available. Methodology/Principal Findings We compared the cost-effectiveness of MRI+CLP to that of standard diagnosis using currently available cognition tests and of standard MRI, and investigated the impact of a hypothetical treatment efficient in early AD. The primary analysis was based on the current French context for 70-year-old patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). In alternative “screen and treat” scenarios, we analyzed the consequences of systematic screenings of over-60 individuals (either population-wide or restricted to the ApoE4 genotype population). We used a Markov model of AD progression; model parameters, as well as incurred costs and quality-of-life weights in France were taken from the literature. We performed univariate and probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analyses. The base-case preferred strategy was the standard MRI diagnosis strategy. In the primary analysis however, MRI+CLP could become the preferred strategy under a wide array of scenarios involving lower cost and/or higher sensitivity or specificity. By contrast, in the “screen and treat” analyses, the probability of MRI+CLP becoming the preferred strategy remained lower than 5%. Conclusions/Significance It is thought that anti-beta-amyloid compounds might halt the development of dementia in early stage patients. This study suggests that, even should such treatments become available, systematically screening the over-60 population for AD would only become cost-effective with highly specific tests able to diagnose early stages of the disease. However, offering a new diagnostic test based on beta-amyloid markers to elderly patients with MCI might prove cost-effective. PMID:22532859

Survival of women with inflammatory breast cancer: a large population-based study.

PubMed

Dawood, S; Lei, X; Dent, R; Gupta, S; Sirohi, B; Cortes, J; Cristofanilli, M; Buchholz, T; Gonzalez-Angulo, A M

2014-06-01

Our group has previously reported that women with inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) continue to have worse outcome compared with those with non-IBC. We undertook this population-based study to see if there have been improvements in survival among women with stage III IBC, over time. We searched the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Registry to identify female patients diagnosed with stage III IBC between 1990 and 2010. Patients were divided into four groups according to year of diagnosis: 1990-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2010. Breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared across groups using the log-rank test. Cox models were then fit to determine the association of year of diagnosis and BCSS after adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. A total of 7679 patients with IBC were identified of whom 1084 patients (14.1%) were diagnosed between 1990 and 1995, 1614 patients (21.0%) between 1996 and 2000, 2683 patients (34.9%) between 2001 and 2005, and 2298 patients (29.9%) between 2006 and 2010. The 2-year BCSS for the whole cohort was 71%. Two-year BCSS were 62%, 67%, 72%, and 76% for patients diagnosed between 1990-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2010, respectively (P < 0.0001). In the multivariable analysis, increasing year of diagnosis (modeled as a continuous variable) was associated with decreasing risks of death from breast cancer (HR = 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.97-0.99, P < 0.0001). There has been a significant improvement in survival of patients diagnosed with IBC over a two-decade time span in this large population-based study. This suggests that therapeutic strategies researched and evolved in the context of non-IBC have also had a positive impact in women with IBC. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decisional Stage Distribution for Colorectal Cancer Screening among Diverse, Low-Income Study Participants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hester, C. M.; Born, W. K.; Yeh, H. W.; Young, K. L.; James, A. S.; Daley, C. M.; Greiner, K. A.

2015-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening uptake among minorities and those with lower incomes is suboptimal. Behavioral interventions specifically tailored to these populations can increase screening rates and save lives. The Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM) allows assignment of a decisional stage for adoption of a behavior such as CRC screening.…

Management of a Single Species Fishery with Stage Structure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kar, T. K.; Pahari, U. K.; Chaudhuri, K. S.

2004-01-01

A dynamic model for a single species fishery with stage structure is proposed using taxation as a control instrument to protect the fish population from overexploitation. Criteria for local stability and global stability of the system are derived. The optimal tax policy is established by using Pontryagin's maximal principle. By numerical…

The Impact of Multiple Malignancies on Patients with Bladder Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study Using the SEER Database

PubMed Central

Ehrlich, Joshua R.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Ng, Casey K.; Kauffman, Eric C.; Scherr, Douglas S.

2009-01-01

Purpose. To date, no study has examined a population-based registry to determine the impact of multiple malignancies on survival of bladder cancer patients. Our experience suggests that bladder cancer patients with multiple malignancies may have relatively positive outcomes. Materials & Methods. We utilized data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEERs) database to examine survival between patients with only bladder cancer (BO) and with bladder cancer and additional cancer(s) antecedent (AB), subsequent (BS), or antecedent and subsequent to bladder cancer (ABS). Results. Analyses demonstrated diminished survival among AB and ABS cohorts. However, when cohorts were substratified by stage, patients in the high-stage BS cohort appeared to have a survival advantage over high-stage BO patients. Conclusions. Bladder cancer patients with multiple malignancies have diminished survival. The survival advantage of high-stage BS patients is likely a statistical phenomenon. Such findings are important to shape future research and to improve our understanding of patients with multiple malignancies. PMID:20069054

Large-scale monitoring of shorebird populations using count data and N-mixture models: Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani) surveys by land and sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, James E.; Andrew, Royle J.; Thomas, Susan M.; Elliott-Smith, Elise; Evenson, Joseph R.; Kelly, Elizabeth G.; Milner, Ruth L.; Nysewander, David R.; Andres, Brad A.

2012-01-01

Large-scale monitoring of bird populations is often based on count data collected across spatial scales that may include multiple physiographic regions and habitat types. Monitoring at large spatial scales may require multiple survey platforms (e.g., from boats and land when monitoring coastal species) and multiple survey methods. It becomes especially important to explicitly account for detection probability when analyzing count data that have been collected using multiple survey platforms or methods. We evaluated a new analytical framework, N-mixture models, to estimate actual abundance while accounting for multiple detection biases. During May 2006, we made repeated counts of Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) from boats in the Puget Sound area of Washington (n = 55 sites) and from land along the coast of Oregon (n = 56 sites). We used a Bayesian analysis of N-mixture models to (1) assess detection probability as a function of environmental and survey covariates and (2) estimate total Black Oystercatcher abundance during the breeding season in the two regions. Probability of detecting individuals during boat-based surveys was 0.75 (95% credible interval: 0.42–0.91) and was not influenced by tidal stage. Detection probability from surveys conducted on foot was 0.68 (0.39–0.90); the latter was not influenced by fog, wind, or number of observers but was ~35% lower during rain. The estimated population size was 321 birds (262–511) in Washington and 311 (276–382) in Oregon. N-mixture models provide a flexible framework for modeling count data and covariates in large-scale bird monitoring programs designed to understand population change.

Wolf-Rayet stars, black holes and the first detected gravitational wave source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogomazov, A. I.; Cherepashchuk, A. M.; Lipunov, V. M.; Tutukov, A. V.

2018-01-01

The recently discovered burst of gravitational waves GW150914 provides a good new chance to verify the current view on the evolution of close binary stars. Modern population synthesis codes help to study this evolution from two main sequence stars up to the formation of two final remnant degenerate dwarfs, neutron stars or black holes (Masevich and Tutukov, 1988). To study the evolution of the GW150914 predecessor we use the ;Scenario Machine; code presented by Lipunov et al. (1996). The scenario modeling conducted in this study allowed to describe the evolution of systems for which the final stage is a massive BH+BH merger. We find that the initial mass of the primary component can be 100÷140M⊙ and the initial separation of the components can be 50÷350R⊙. Our calculations show the plausibility of modern evolutionary scenarios for binary stars and the population synthesis modeling based on it.

Characterization of the 2012-044C Briz-M Upper Stage Breakup

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Joseph A.; Matney, Mark

2013-01-01

The NASA breakup model prediction was close to the observed population for catalog objects. The NASA breakup model predicted a larger population than was observed for objects under 10 cm. The stare technique produces low observation counts, but is readily comparable to model predictions. Customized stare parameters (Az, El, Range) were effective to increase the opportunities for HAX to observe the debris cloud. Other techniques to increase observation count will be considered for future breakup events.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

PubMed

Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

2014-01-01

Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows the importance of vegetative compared to reproductive stages for the long-term persistence of populations.

A two-stage stochastic rule-based model to determine pre-assembly buffer content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunay, Elif Elcin; Kula, Ufuk

2018-01-01

This study considers instant decision-making needs of the automobile manufactures for resequencing vehicles before final assembly (FA). We propose a rule-based two-stage stochastic model to determine the number of spare vehicles that should be kept in the pre-assembly buffer to restore the altered sequence due to paint defects and upstream department constraints. First stage of the model decides the spare vehicle quantities, where the second stage model recovers the scrambled sequence respect to pre-defined rules. The problem is solved by sample average approximation (SAA) algorithm. We conduct a numerical study to compare the solutions of heuristic model with optimal ones and provide following insights: (i) as the mismatch between paint entrance and scheduled sequence decreases, the rule-based heuristic model recovers the scrambled sequence as good as the optimal resequencing model, (ii) the rule-based model is more sensitive to the mismatch between the paint entrance and scheduled sequences for recovering the scrambled sequence, (iii) as the defect rate increases, the difference in recovery effectiveness between rule-based heuristic and optimal solutions increases, (iv) as buffer capacity increases, the recovery effectiveness of the optimization model outperforms heuristic model, (v) as expected the rule-based model holds more inventory than the optimization model.

Electrophysiological correlates reflect the integration of model-based and model-free decision information.

PubMed

Eppinger, Ben; Walter, Maik; Li, Shu-Chen

2017-04-01

In this study, we investigated the interplay of habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision processes by using a two-stage Markov decision task in combination with event-related potentials (ERPs) and computational modeling. To manipulate the demands on model-based decision making, we applied two experimental conditions with different probabilities of transitioning from the first to the second stage of the task. As we expected, when the stage transitions were more predictable, participants showed greater model-based (planning) behavior. Consistent with this result, we found that stimulus-evoked parietal (P300) activity at the second stage of the task increased with the predictability of the state transitions. However, the parietal activity also reflected model-free information about the expected values of the stimuli, indicating that at this stage of the task both types of information are integrated to guide decision making. Outcome-related ERP components only reflected reward-related processes: Specifically, a medial prefrontal ERP component (the feedback-related negativity) was sensitive to negative outcomes, whereas a component that is elicited by reward (the feedback-related positivity) increased as a function of positive prediction errors. Taken together, our data indicate that stimulus-locked parietal activity reflects the integration of model-based and model-free information during decision making, whereas feedback-related medial prefrontal signals primarily reflect reward-related decision processes.

From HIV infection to therapeutic response: a population-based longitudinal HIV cascade-of-care study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

PubMed

Haber, Noah; Tanser, Frank; Bor, Jacob; Naidu, Kevindra; Mutevedzi, Tinofa; Herbst, Kobus; Porter, Kholoud; Pillay, Deenan; Bärnighausen, Till

2017-05-01

Standard approaches to estimation of losses in the HIV cascade of care are typically cross-sectional and do not include the population stages before linkage to clinical care. We used indiviual-level longitudinal cascade data, transition by transition, including population stages, both to identify the health-system losses in the cascade and to show the differences in inference between standard methods and the longitudinal approach. We used non-parametric survival analysis to estimate a longitudinal HIV care cascade for a large population of people with HIV residing in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We linked data from a longitudinal population health surveillance (which is maintained by the Africa Health Research Institute) with patient records from the local public-sector HIV treatment programme (contained in an electronic clinical HIV treatment and care database, ARTemis). We followed up all people who had been newly detected as having HIV between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2011, across six cascade stages: three population stages (first positive HIV test, HIV status knowledge, and linkage to care) and three clinical stages (eligibility for antiretroviral therapy [ART], initiation of ART, and therapeutic response). We compared our estimates to cross-sectional cascades in the same population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of reaching a particular cascade stage at a specific time with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Our population consisted of 5205 individuals with HIV who were followed up for 24 031 person-years. We recorded 598 deaths. 4539 individuals gained knowledge of their positive HIV status, 2818 were linked to care, 2151 became eligible for ART, 1839 began ART, and 1456 had successful responses to therapy. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to adjust for censorship due to the end of data collection, and found that 8 years after testing positive in the population health surveillance, 16% had died. Among living patients, 82% knew their HIV status, 45% were linked to care, 39% were eligible for ART, 35% initiated ART, and 33% had reached therapeutic response. Median times to transition for these cascade stages were 52 months, 52 months, 20 months, 3 months, and 9 months, respectively. Compared with the population stages in the cascade, the transitions across the clinical stages were fast. Over calendar time, rates of linkage to care have decreased and patients presenting for the first time for care were, on average, healthier. HIV programmes should focus on linkage to care as the most important bottleneck in the cascade. Cascade estimation should be longitudinal rather than cross-sectional and start with the population stages preceding clinical care. Wellcome Trust, PEPFAR. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus maculosus ) spatial distribution, breeding water depth, and use of artificial spawning habitat in the Detroit River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Jaquelyn M.; Mifsud, David A.; Briggs, Andrew S.; Boase, James C.; Kennedy, Gregory W.

2015-01-01

Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus maculosus) populations have been declining in the Great Lakes region of North America. However, during fisheries assessments in the Detroit River, we documented Mudpuppy reproduction when we collected all life stages from egg through adult as by-catch in fisheries assessments. Ten years of fisheries sampling resulted in two occurrences of Mudpuppy egg collection and 411 Mudpuppies ranging in size from 37–392 mm Total Length, collected from water 3.5–15.1 m deep. Different types of fisheries gear collected specific life stages; spawning females used cement structures for egg deposition, larval Mudpuppies found refuge in eggmats, and we caught adults with baited setlines and minnow traps. Based on logistic regression models for setlines and minnow traps, there was a higher probability of catching adult Mudpuppies at lower temperatures and in shallower water with reduced clarity. In addition to documenting the presence of all life stages of this sensitive species in a deep and fast-flowing connecting channel, we were also able to show that standard fisheries research equipment can be used for Mudpuppy research in areas not typically sampled in herpetological studies. Our observations show that typical fisheries assessments and gear can play an important role in data collection for Mudpuppy population and spawning assessments.

An agent-based model for control strategies of Echinococcus granulosus.

PubMed

Huang, Liang; Huang, Yan; Wang, Qian; Xiao, Ning; Yi, Deyou; Yu, Wenjie; Qiu, Dongchuan

2011-06-30

Cystic echinococcosis is a widespread zoonosis, caused by Echinococcus granulosus. The definitive hosts are carnivores and the intermediate hosts are grazing animals. Because humans are often accidentally infected with the cystic stage of the parasite, a control program is being developed for Western China. Western Sichuan Province in China is a highly endemic area. In this study, we built an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate and assess possible control strategies. These included dog dosing, control of livestock slaughter, health education, vaccination of intermediate hosts, vaccination of definitive hosts, slow-released praziquantel injections for dogs, removing unproductive old livestock, dog population reduction. These strategies were examined singly and in various combinations. The results show that vaccination based control strategies and also combined control strategies (dog dosing, slaughter control, removing old livestock, dog population reduction) can achieve a higher efficiency and be more feasible. Although monthly dog dosing achieved the highest efficiency, it required a high frequency and reliability, which were not feasible or sustainable. The model also indicated that transmission would recover soon after the chosen control strategy was stopped, indicating the need to move from a successful attack phase to a sustainable consolidation phase. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling effects of diquat under realistic exposure patterns in genetically differentiated populations of the gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis

PubMed Central

Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R. R.; Lagadic, Laurent

2010-01-01

Pesticide use leads to complex exposure and response patterns in non-target aquatic species, so that the analysis of data from standard toxicity tests may result in unrealistic risk forecasts. Developing models that are able to capture such complexity from toxicity test data is thus a crucial issue for pesticide risk assessment. In this study, freshwater snails from two genetically differentiated populations of Lymnaea stagnalis were exposed to repeated acute applications of environmentally realistic concentrations of the herbicide diquat, from the embryo to the adult stage. Hatching rate, embryonic development duration, juvenile mortality, feeding rate and age at first spawning were investigated during both exposure and recovery periods. Effects of diquat on mortality were analysed using a threshold hazard model accounting for time-varying herbicide concentrations. All endpoints were significantly impaired at diquat environmental concentrations in both populations. Snail evolutionary history had no significant impact on their sensitivity and responsiveness to diquat, whereas food acted as a modulating factor of toxicant-induced mortality. The time course of effects was adequately described by the model, which thus appears suitable to analyse long-term effects of complex exposure patterns based upon full life cycle experiment data. Obtained model outputs (e.g. no-effect concentrations) could be directly used for chemical risk assessment. PMID:20921047

Modelling effects of diquat under realistic exposure patterns in genetically differentiated populations of the gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Lagadic, Laurent

2010-11-12

Pesticide use leads to complex exposure and response patterns in non-target aquatic species, so that the analysis of data from standard toxicity tests may result in unrealistic risk forecasts. Developing models that are able to capture such complexity from toxicity test data is thus a crucial issue for pesticide risk assessment. In this study, freshwater snails from two genetically differentiated populations of Lymnaea stagnalis were exposed to repeated acute applications of environmentally realistic concentrations of the herbicide diquat, from the embryo to the adult stage. Hatching rate, embryonic development duration, juvenile mortality, feeding rate and age at first spawning were investigated during both exposure and recovery periods. Effects of diquat on mortality were analysed using a threshold hazard model accounting for time-varying herbicide concentrations. All endpoints were significantly impaired at diquat environmental concentrations in both populations. Snail evolutionary history had no significant impact on their sensitivity and responsiveness to diquat, whereas food acted as a modulating factor of toxicant-induced mortality. The time course of effects was adequately described by the model, which thus appears suitable to analyse long-term effects of complex exposure patterns based upon full life cycle experiment data. Obtained model outputs (e.g. no-effect concentrations) could be directly used for chemical risk assessment.

Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

2011-05-01

Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi-model inference associated with separate analysis of juveniles and adult fish is then advised to obtain objective estimations of growth parameters when sampling cannot be corrected towards older fish.

Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

2009-08-01

Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Intermittence for humans spreading 45,000 years ago: from Eurasia to the Americas.

PubMed

Flores, J C; Hopp, Renato

2013-10-01

From northeastern Eurasia to the Americas, a three-stage spread of modern humans is considered through large-scale intermittence (exploitation/relocation). Conceptually, this work supports intermittence as a real strategy for colonization of new habitats. For the first stage, northeastern Eurasia travel, we adapt our model to archaeological dates determining the diffusion coefficient (exploitation phase) as D = 299.44 km2/yr and the velocity parameter (relocation phase) as vo = 4.8944 km/yr. The relative phase weight (✧0.46) between both kinds of motions is consistent with a moderate biological population rate (r΄ ✧ 0.0046/yr). The second stage is related to population fragmentation. The last stage, reaching Alaska, corresponds essentially to relocation (vo ✧ 0.75 km/yr). Copyright © 2014 Wayne State University Press, Detroit, Michigan 48201-1309.

Medicare Part D Enrollment in a Biracial Community-Based Population of Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skarupski, Kimberly A.; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F.; Barnes, Lisa L.; Evans, Denis A.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit (Part D) program debuted in January 2006. We ascertained the sociodemographic and health characteristics of Blacks and Whites who enrolled in the early stages of the program. Design and Methods: Data were collected between April 2006 and October 2007 from an ongoing population-based biracial study of…

The Eighth Edition AJCC Cancer Staging Manual: Continuing to build a bridge from a population-based to a more "personalized" approach to cancer staging.

PubMed

Amin, Mahul B; Greene, Frederick L; Edge, Stephen B; Compton, Carolyn C; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Brookland, Robert K; Meyer, Laura; Gress, Donna M; Byrd, David R; Winchester, David P

2017-03-01

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging manual has become the benchmark for classifying patients with cancer, defining prognosis, and determining the best treatment approaches. Many view the primary role of the tumor, lymph node, metastasis (TNM) system as that of a standardized classification system for evaluating cancer at a population level in terms of the extent of disease, both at initial presentation and after surgical treatment, and the overall impact of improvements in cancer treatment. The rapid evolution of knowledge in cancer biology and the discovery and validation of biologic factors that predict cancer outcome and response to treatment with better accuracy have led some cancer experts to question the utility of a TNM-based approach in clinical care at an individualized patient level. In the Eighth Edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual, the goal of including relevant, nonanatomic (including molecular) factors has been foremost, although changes are made only when there is strong evidence for inclusion. The editorial board viewed this iteration as a proactive effort to continue to build the important bridge from a "population-based" to a more "personalized" approach to patient classification, one that forms the conceptual framework and foundation of cancer staging in the era of precision molecular oncology. The AJCC promulgates best staging practices through each new edition in an effort to provide cancer care providers with a powerful, knowledge-based resource for the battle against cancer. In this commentary, the authors highlight the overall organizational and structural changes as well as "what's new" in the Eighth Edition. It is hoped that this information will provide the reader with a better understanding of the rationale behind the aggregate proposed changes and the exciting developments in the upcoming edition. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:93-99. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

PubMed

Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

2004-05-01

Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

Dynamics of morphological evolution in experimental Escherichia coli populations.

PubMed

Cui, F; Yuan, B

2016-08-30

Here, we applied a two-stage clonal expansion model of morphological (cell-size) evolution to a long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli. Using this model, we derived the incidence function of the appearance of cell-size stability, the waiting time until this morphological stability, and the conditional and unconditional probabilities of morphological stability. After assessing the parameter values, we verified that the calculated waiting time was consistent with the experimental results, demonstrating the effectiveness of the two-stage model. According to the relative contributions of parameters to the incidence function and the waiting time, cell-size evolution is largely determined by the promotion rate, i.e., the clonal expansion rate of selectively advantageous organisms. This rate plays a prominent role in the evolution of cell size in experimental populations, whereas all other evolutionary forces were found to be less influential.

Adapting the Australian system: is an organized screening program feasible in Malaysia?--an overview of cervical cancer screening in both countries.

PubMed

Rashid, Rima Ma; Dahlui, Maznah; Mohamed, Majdah; Gertig, Dorota

2013-01-01

Cervical cancer is the third most common form of cancer that strikes Malaysian women. The National Cancer Registry in 2006 and 2007 reported that the age standardized incidence (ASR) of cervical cancer was 12.2 and 7.8 per 100,000 women, respectively. The cumulative risk of developing cervical cancer for a Malaysian woman is 0.9 for 74 years. Among all ethnic groups, the Chinese experienced the highest incidence rate in 2006, followed by Indians and Malays. The percentage cervical cancer detected at stage I and II was 55% (stage I: 21.0%, stage II: 34.0%, stage III: 26.0% and stage IV: 19.0%). Data from Ministry of Health Malaysia (2006) showed a 58.9% estimated coverage of pap smear screening conducted among those aged 30-49 years. Only a small percentage of women aged 50-59 and 50-65 years old were screened, 14% and 13.8% coverage, respectively. Incidence of cervical cancer was highest (71.6%) among those in the 60-65 age group (MOH, 2003). Currently, there is no organized population-based screening program available for the whole of Malaysia. A pilot project was initiated in 2006, to move from opportunistic cervical screening of women who attend antenatal and postnatal visits to a population based approach to be able to monitor the women through the screening pathway and encourage women at highest risk to be screened. The project was modelled on the screening program in Australia with some modifications to suit the Malaysian setting. Substantial challenges have been identified, particularly in relation to information systems for call and recall of women, as well as laboratory reporting and quality assurance. A cost-effective locally-specific approach to organized screening, that will provide the infrastructure for increasing participation in the cervical cancer screening program, is urgently required.

The good, the bad and the ugly of marine reserves for fishery yields

PubMed Central

De Leo, Giulio A.; Micheli, Fiorenza

2015-01-01

Marine reserves (MRs) are used worldwide as a means of conserving biodiversity and protecting depleted populations. Despite major investments in MRs, their environmental and social benefits have proven difficult to demonstrate and are still debated. Clear expectations of the possible outcomes of MR establishment are needed to guide and strengthen empirical assessments. Previous models show that reserve establishment in overcapitalized, quota-based fisheries can reduce both catch and population abundance, thereby negating fisheries and even conservation benefits. By using a stage-structured, spatially explicit stochastic model, we show that catches under quota-based fisheries that include a network of MRs can exceed maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under conventional quota management if reserves provide protection to old, large spawners that disproportionally contribute to recruitment outside the reserves. Modelling results predict that the net fishery benefit of MRs is lost when gains in fecundity of old, large individuals are small, is highest in the case of sedentary adults with high larval dispersal, and decreases with adult mobility. We also show that environmental variability may mask fishery benefits of reserve implementation and that MRs may buffer against collapse when sustainable catch quotas are exceeded owing to stock overestimation or systematic overfishing. PMID:26460129

The North Atlantic Ocean as habitat for Calanus finmarchicus: Environmental factors and life history traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melle, Webjørn; Runge, Jeffrey; Head, Erica; Plourde, Stéphane; Castellani, Claudia; Licandro, Priscilla; Pierson, James; Jonasdottir, Sigrun; Johnson, Catherine; Broms, Cecilie; Debes, Høgni; Falkenhaug, Tone; Gaard, Eilif; Gislason, Astthor; Heath, Michael; Niehoff, Barbara; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; Pepin, Pierre; Stenevik, Erling Kaare; Chust, Guillem

2014-12-01

Here we present a new, pan-Atlantic compilation and analysis of data on Calanus finmarchicus abundance, demography, dormancy, egg production and mortality in relation to basin-scale patterns of temperature, phytoplankton biomass, circulation and other environmental characteristics in the context of understanding factors determining the distribution and abundance of C. finmarchicus across its North Atlantic habitat. A number of themes emerge: (1) the south-to-north transport of plankton in the northeast Atlantic contrasts with north-to-south transport in the western North Atlantic, which has implications for understanding population responses of C. finmarchicus to climate forcing, (2) recruitment to the youngest copepodite stages occurs during or just after the phytoplankton bloom in the east whereas it occurs after the bloom at many western sites, with up to 3.5 months difference in recruitment timing, (3) the deep basin and gyre of the southern Norwegian Sea is the centre of production and overwintering of C. finmarchicus, upon which the surrounding waters depend, whereas, in the Labrador/Irminger Seas production mainly occurs along the margins, such that the deep basins serve as collection areas and refugia for the overwintering populations, rather than as centres of production, (4) the western North Atlantic marginal seas have an important role in sustaining high C. finmarchicus abundance on the nearby coastal shelves, (5) differences in mean temperature and chlorophyll concentration between the western and eastern North Atlantic are reflected in regional differences in female body size and egg production, (6) regional differences in functional responses of egg production rate may reflect genetic differences between western and eastern populations, (7) dormancy duration is generally shorter in the deep waters adjacent to the lower latitude western North Atlantic shelves than in the east, (8) there are differences in stage-specific daily mortality rates between eastern and western shelves and basins, but the survival trajectories for cohort development from CI to CV are similar, and (9) early life stage survival is much lower in regions where C. finmarchicus is found with its congeners, C. glacialis and/or C. hyperboreus. This compilation and analysis provides new knowledge for evaluation and parameterisation of population models of C. finmarchicus and their responses to climate change in the North Atlantic. The strengths and weaknesses of modeling approaches, including a statistical approach based on ecological niche theory and a dynamical approach based on knowledge of spatial population dynamics and life history, are discussed, as well as needs for further research.

The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China

PubMed Central

Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

2013-01-01

It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons·km−2 and 3,820 persons·km−2, and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term. PMID:23435589

Identifying the key biophysical drivers, connectivity outcomes, and metapopulation consequences of larval dispersal in the sea.

PubMed

Treml, Eric A; Ford, John R; Black, Kerry P; Swearer, Stephen E

2015-01-01

Population connectivity, which is essential for the persistence of benthic marine metapopulations, depends on how life history traits and the environment interact to influence larval production, dispersal and survival. Although we have made significant advances in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of these individual processes, developing an approach that integrates the entire population connectivity process from reproduction, through dispersal, and to the recruitment of individuals has been difficult. We present a population connectivity modelling framework and diagnostic approach for quantifying the impact of i) life histories, ii) demographics, iii) larval dispersal, and iv) the physical seascape, on the structure of connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. We illustrate this approach using the subtidal rocky reef ecosystem of Port Phillip Bay, were we provide a broadly-applicable framework of population connectivity and quantitative methodology for evaluating the relative importance of individual factors in determining local and system outcomes. The spatial characteristics of marine population connectivity are primarily influenced by larval mortality, the duration of the pelagic larval stage, and the settlement competency characteristics, with significant variability imposed by the geographic setting and the timing of larval release. The relative influence and the direction and strength of the main effects were strongly consistent among 10 connectivity-based metrics. These important intrinsic factors (mortality, length of the pelagic larval stage, and the extent of the precompetency window) and the spatial and temporal variability represent key research priorities for advancing our understanding of the connectivity process and metapopulation outcomes.

Application of Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for the Prediction of Tofacitinib Exposure in Japanese.

PubMed

Suzuki, Misaki; Tse, Susanna; Hirai, Midori; Kurebayashi, Yoichi

2017-05-09

Tofacitinib (3-[(3R,4R)-4-methyl-3-[methyl(7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidin-4-yl)amino]piperidin-1-yl]-3 -oxopropanenitrile) is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor that is approved in countries including Japan and the United States for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, and is being developed across the globe for the treatment of inflammatory diseases. In the present study, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model was applied to compare the pharmacokinetics of tofacitinib in Japanese and Caucasians to assess the potential impact of ethnicity on the dosing regimen in the two populations. Simulated plasma concentration profiles and pharmacokinetic parameters, i.e. maximum concentration and area under plasma concentration-time curve, in Japanese and Caucasian populations after single or multiple doses of 1 to 30 mg tofacitinib were in agreement with clinically observed data. The similarity in simulated exposure between Japanese and Caucasian populations supports the currently approved dosing regimen in Japan and the United States, where there is no recommendation for dose adjustment according to race. Simulated results for single (1 to 100 mg) or multiple doses (5 mg twice daily) of tofacitinib in extensive and poor metabolizers of CYP2C19, an enzyme which has been shown to contribute in part to tofacitinib elimination and is known to exhibit higher frequency in Japanese compared to Caucasians, were also in support of no recommendation for dose adjustment in CYP2C19 poor metabolizers. This study demonstrated a successful application of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling in evaluating ethnic sensitivity in pharmacokinetics at early stages of development, presenting its potential value as an efficient and scientific method for optimal dose setting in the Japanese population.

Application of Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for the Prediction of Tofacitinib Exposure in Japanese

PubMed Central

SUZUKI, MISAKI; TSE, SUSANNA; HIRAI, MIDORI; KUREBAYASHI, YOICHI

2016-01-01

Tofacitinib (3-[(3R,4R)-4-methyl-3-[methyl(7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidin-4-yl)amino]piperidin-1-yl]-3 -oxopropanenitrile) is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor that is approved in countries including Japan and the United States for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, and is being developed across the globe for the treatment of inflammatory diseases. In the present study, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model was applied to compare the pharmacokinetics of tofacitinib in Japanese and Caucasians to assess the potential impact of ethnicity on the dosing regimen in the two populations. Simulated plasma concentration profiles and pharmacokinetic parameters, i.e. maximum concentration and area under plasma concentration-time curve, in Japanese and Caucasian populations after single or multiple doses of 1 to 30 mg tofacitinib were in agreement with clinically observed data. The similarity in simulated exposure between Japanese and Caucasian populations supports the currently approved dosing regimen in Japan and the United States, where there is no recommendation for dose adjustment according to race. Simulated results for single (1 to 100 mg) or multiple doses (5 mg twice daily) of tofacitinib in extensive and poor metabolizers of CYP2C19, an enzyme which has been shown to contribute in part to tofacitinib elimination and is known to exhibit higher frequency in Japanese compared to Caucasians, were also in support of no recommendation for dose adjustment in CYP2C19 poor metabolizers. This study demonstrated a successful application of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling in evaluating ethnic sensitivity in pharmacokinetics at early stages of development, presenting its potential value as an efficient and scientific method for optimal dose setting in the Japanese population. PMID:28490712

Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

2012-01-01

American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

Development and application of a density dependent matrix ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ranging along the Atlantic coast from US Florida to the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Matrix population models are useful tools for ecological risk assessment because they integrate effects across the life cycle, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for many generations in the future. We developed a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish by modifying a model developed for fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) that has proved to be extremely useful, e.g. to incorporate data from laboratory studies and project effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals. We developed a size-structured model (as opposed to one that is based upon developmental stages or age class structure) so that we could readily incorporate output from a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, currently under development. Due to a lack of sufficient data to accurately define killifish responses to density dependence, we tested a number of scenarios realistic for other fish species in order to demonstrate the outcome of including this ecologically important factor. We applied the model using published data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, and compared our results to those using

How cells engulf: a review of theoretical approaches to phagocytosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, David M.; Endres, Robert G.

2017-12-01

Phagocytosis is a fascinating process whereby a cell surrounds and engulfs particles such as bacteria and dead cells. This is crucial both for single-cell organisms (as a way of acquiring nutrients) and as part of the immune system (to destroy foreign invaders). This whole process is hugely complex and involves multiple coordinated events such as membrane remodelling, receptor motion, cytoskeleton reorganisation and intracellular signalling. Because of this, phagocytosis is an excellent system for theoretical study, benefiting from biophysical approaches combined with mathematical modelling. Here, we review these theoretical approaches and discuss the recent mathematical and computational models, including models based on receptors, models focusing on the forces involved, and models employing energetic considerations. Along the way, we highlight a beautiful connection to the physics of phase transitions, consider the role of stochasticity, and examine links between phagocytosis and other types of endocytosis. We cover the recently discovered multistage nature of phagocytosis, showing that the size of the phagocytic cup grows in distinct stages, with an initial slow stage followed by a much quicker second stage starting around half engulfment. We also address the issue of target shape dependence, which is relevant to both pathogen infection and drug delivery, covering both one-dimensional and two-dimensional results. Throughout, we pay particular attention to recent experimental techniques that continue to inform the theoretical studies and provide a means to test model predictions. Finally, we discuss population models, connections to other biological processes, and how physics and modelling will continue to play a key role in future work in this area.

Palliative Care for People With Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and Specific Benefits for Older Adults.

PubMed

Woodrell, Christopher D; Hansen, Lissi; Schiano, Thomas D; Goldstein, Nathan E

2018-04-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common type of primary liver cancer, has a rapidly rising prevalence in the United States and a very poor overall rate of survival. This epidemic is driven by the cohort of aging Baby Boomers with hepatitis C viral infection and the increasing prevalence of cirrhosis as a result of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Because curative options are limited, the disease course creates, in patients and their families, distressing uncertainty around prognosis and treatment decisions. Older adults are disproportionately affected by HCC and have more comorbidities, adding to the complexity of the disease. This population would benefit from increased access to palliative care services, which can potentially complement the treatments throughout the disease trajectory. The purpose of this review was to use existing evidence to propose a new model of palliative care integration in patients with HCC. Thus, we focus on the HCC stage and the treatment algorithm, the ways that palliative care can offer support in this population at each stage, as well as elements that can enhance patient and family support throughout the entire disease trajectory, with an emphasis on the care of older adults with HCC. This is a narrative review in which we identify evidence-based ways that palliative care can help younger and older adults with HCC and their families, at each stage of HCC and throughout the disease trajectory. We propose ways to integrate HCC and palliative care based on the existing evidence in both fields. Palliative care offers support in symptom management, advanced care planning, and decision making in ways that are specific to each stage of HCC. We also discuss the evidence that illustrates the palliative care needs of patients with HCC that span the entire course of illness, including coping with the stigmatization of liver disease, addressing informational needs at different stages, and discussing quality of life longitudinally. Integrating palliative care into the treatment of patients with HCC has the potential to improve outcomes, although more research is needed to build this evidence base. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

PubMed

Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

2015-12-01

We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p < 0.0001 for differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk prediction for type 2 diabetes using readily available administrative data is feasible and has better prediction performance than classical diabetes risk prediction algorithms on very large populations with missing data. The new model enables intervention allocation at national scale quickly and accurately and recovers potentially novel risk factors at different stages before the disease onset.

Cabergoline versus levodopa monotherapy: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Smala, Antje M; Spottke, E Annika; Machat, Olaf; Siebert, Uwe; Meyer, Dieter; Köhne-Volland, Rudolf; Reuther, Martin; DuChane, Janeen; Oertel, Wolfgang H; Berger, Karin B; Dodel, Richard C

2003-08-01

We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness of cabergoline compared with levodopa monotherapy in patients with early Parkinson's disease (PD) in the German healthcare system. The study design was based on cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model with a 10-year time horizon. Model input data was based on a clinical trial "Early Treatment of PD with Cabergoline" as well as on cost data of a German hospital/office-based PD network. Direct and indirect medical and nonmedical costs were included. Outcomes were costs, disease stage, cumulative complication incidence, and mortality. An annual discount rate of 5% was applied and the societal perspective was chosen. The target population included patients in Hoehn and Yahr Stages I to III. It was found that the occurrence of motor complications was significantly lower in patients on cabergoline monotherapy. For patients aged >/=60 years of age, cabergoline monotherapy was cost effective when considering costs per decreased UPDRS score. Each point decrease in the UPDRS (I-IV) resulted in costs of euro;1,031. Incremental costs per additional motor complication-free patient were euro;104,400 for patients <60 years of age and euro;57,900 for patients >/=60 years of age. In conclusion, this decision-analytic model calculation for PD was based almost entirely on clinical and observed data with a limited number of assumptions. Although costs were higher in patients on cabergoline, the corresponding cost-effectiveness ratio for cabergoline was at least as favourable as the ratios for many commonly accepted therapies. Copyright 20032003 Movement Disorder Society

Spiritual Diversity and Living with Early-Stage Dementia.

PubMed

McGee, Jocelyn Shealy; Zhao, Holly Carlson; Myers, Dennis R; Seela Eaton, Hannah

2018-01-01

Attention to spiritual diversity is necessary for the provision of culturally informed clinical care for people with early-stage dementia and their family members. In this article, an evidence-based theoretical framework for conceptualizing spiritual diversity is described in detail (Pargament, 2011). The framework is then applied to two clinical case studies of people living with early-stage dementia to elucidate the multilayered components of spiritual diversity in this population. The case studies were selected from a larger mixed-methods study on spirituality, positive psychological factors, health, and well-being in people living with early-stage dementia and their family members. To our knowledge this is the first systematic attempt to apply a theoretical framework for understanding spiritual diversity in this population. Implications for clinical practice are provided.

Spatially explicit measures of production of young alewives in Lake Michigan: Linkage between essential fish habitat and recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hook, Tomas O.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Brines, Shannon J.; Mason, Doran M.; Schwab, David J.; McCormick, Michael; Desorcie, Timothy J.

2003-01-01

The identification and protection of essential habitats for early life stages of fishes are necessary to sustain fish stocks. Essential fish habitat for early life stages may be defined as areas where fish densities, growth, survival, or production rates are relatively high. To identify critical habitats for young-of-year (YOY) alewives (Alosa pseud oharengus) in Lake Michigan, we integrated bioenergetics models with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to generate spatially explicit estimates of potential population production (an index of habitat quality). These estimates were based upon YOY alewife bioenergetic growth rate potential and their salmonine predators’ consumptive demand. We compared estimates of potential population production to YOY alewife yield (an index of habitat importance). Our analysis suggested that during 1994–1995, YOY alewife habitat quality and yield varied widely throughout Lake Michigan. Spatial patterns of alewife yield were not significantly correlated to habitat quality. Various mechanisms (e.g., predator migrations, lake circulation patterns, alternative strategies) may preclude YOY alewives from concentrating in areas of high habitat quality in Lake Michigan.

Survival from colorectal cancer in Victoria: 10-year follow up of the 1987 management survey.

PubMed

McLeish, John A; Thursfield, Vicky J; Giles, Graham G

2002-05-01

In 1987, the Victorian Cancer Registry identified a population-based sample of patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer for an audit of management following resection. Over 10 years have passed since this survey, and data on the survival of these patients (incorporating various prognostic indicators collected at the time of the survey) are now discussed in the present report. Relative survival analysis was conducted for each prognostic indicator separately and then combined in a multivariate model. Relative survival at 5 years for patients undergoing curative resections was 76% compared with 7% for those whose treatment was considered palliative. Survival at 10 years was little changed (73% and 7% respectively). Survival did not differ significantly by sex or age irrespective of treatment intention. In the curative group, only stage was a significant predictor of survival. Multivariate analysis was performed only for the curative group. Adjusting for all variables simultaneously,stage was the only -significant predictor of survival. Patients with Dukes' stage C disease were at a significantly greater risk (OR 5.5 (1.7-17.6)) than those with Dukes' A. Neither tumour site, sex, age, surgeon activity level nor adjuvant therapies made a significant contribution to the model.

Optimization of PV/WIND/DIESEL Hybrid Power System in HOMER for Rural Electrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Q.; Jaszczur, M.; Abdulateef, J.

2016-09-01

A large proportion of the world's population lives in remote rural areas that are geographically isolated and sparsely populated. The present study is based on modeling, computer simulation and optimization of hybrid power generation system in the rural area in Muqdadiyah district of Diyala state, Iraq. Two renewable resources, namely, solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine (WT) are considered. The HOMER software is used to study and design the proposed hybrid energy system model. Based on simulation results, it has been found that renewable energy sources perhaps replace the conventional energy sources and would be a feasible solution for the generation of electric power at remote locations with a reasonable investment. The hybrid power system solution to electrify the selected area resulted in a least-cost combination of the hybrid power system that can meet the demand in a dependable manner at a cost about (0.321/kWh). If the wind resources in the study area at the lower stage, it's not economically viable for a wind turbine to generate the electricity.

How many new cancer patients in Europe will require radiotherapy by 2025? An ESTRO-HERO analysis.

PubMed

Borras, Josep M; Lievens, Yolande; Barton, Michael; Corral, Julieta; Ferlay, Jacques; Bray, Freddie; Grau, Cai

2016-04-01

The objective of this HERO study was to assess the number of new cancer patients that will require at least one course of radiotherapy by 2025. European cancer incidence data by tumor site and country for 2012 and 2025 was extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. The projection of the number of new cases took into account demographic factors (age and size of the population). Population based stages at diagnosis were taken from four European countries. Incidence and stage data were introduced in the Australian Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) model. Among the different tumor sites, the highest expected relative increase by 2025 in treatment courses was prostate cancer (24%) while lymphoma (13%), head and neck (12%) and breast cancer (10%) were below the average. Based on the projected cancer distributions in 2025, a 16% expected increase in the number of radiotherapy treatment courses was estimated. This increase varied across European countries from less than 5% to more than 30%. With the already existing disparity in radiotherapy resources in mind, the data provided here should act as a leverage point to raise awareness among European health policy makers of the need for investment in radiotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating cancer incidence, prevalence, and the number of cancer patients treated with antitumor therapy in 2015 and 2020 -  analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry.

PubMed

Dusek, L; Pavlík, T; Májek, O; Büchler, T; Muzik, J; Maluskova, D; Koptíková, J; Bortlicek, Z; Abrahámová, J

2015-01-01

Cancer burden in the Czech population ranks among the highest worldwide, which introduces a strong need for a prospective modelling of cancer incidence and prevalence rates. Moreover, a prediction of number of cancer patients requiring active antitumor therapy is also an important issue. This paper presents the stage-specific predictions of cancer incidence and prevalence, and the stage- and region-specific patients requiring active antitumor therapy for the most common cancer diagnoses in the Czech Republic for years 2015 and 2020. The stage-specific estimates are also presented with regard to the treatment phase as newly diagnosed patients, patients treated for non-terminal recurrence, and patients treated for terminal recurrence. Data of the Czech National Cancer Registry from 1977 to 2011 has been used for the analysis, omitting the records of patients diagnosed as death certificate only or at autopsy. In total, 1,777,775 incidences have been considered for the estimation using a statistical model utilizing solely the population-based cancer registry data. All estimates have been calculated with respect to the changing demographic structure of the Czech population and the clinical stage at diagnosis. Considering year 2011 as the baseline, we predict 89%, 15%, 31% and 32% increase in prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer incidence, respectively, in 2020 resulting in 13,153, 9,368, 8,695, and 8,604 newly dia-g--nosed cancer patients in that year, respectively. Regarding cancer prevalence in 2020, the estimated increase is 140%, 40%, 51%, and 17% for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer, respectively, meaning that more than 100,000 prevalent female breast cancer patients as well as more than 100,000 prevalent prostate cancer patients are expected in the Czech Republic. The estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer in the Czech Republic in 2020 are 23,652, 14,006, 14,759 and 8,272; respectively. The analysis documents a serious increase in cancer incidence and prevalence in the Czech Republic in years 2015 and 2020 when compared to the situation in 2011. Regarding the estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy, the model confirms a continuous increase that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.

Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmanpazir, Farhad; Asadi, Shahrokh

2017-03-01

The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a "data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system" (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for stock price forecasting problems.

Consumer effects on the vital rates of their resource can determine the outcome of competition between consumers.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Miller, Tom E X; Inouye, Brian D

2011-10-01

Current competition theory does not adequately address the fact that competitors may affect the survival, growth, and reproductive rates of their resources. Ecologically important interactions in which consumers affect resource vital rates range from parasitism and herbivory to mutualism. We present a general model of competition that explicitly includes consumer-dependent resource vital rates. We build on the classic MacArthur model of competition for multiple resources, allowing direct comparison with expectations from established concepts of resource-use overlap. Consumers share a stage-structured resource population but may use the different stages to different extents, as they do the different independent resources in the classic model. Here, however, the stages are dynamically linked via consumer-dependent vital rates. We show that consumers' effects on resource vital rates result in two important departures from classic results. First, consumers can coexist despite identical use of resource stages, provided each competitor shifts the resource stage distribution toward stages that benefit other species. Second, consumers specializing on different resource stages can compete strongly, possibly resulting in competitive exclusion despite a lack of resource stage-use overlap. Our model framework demonstrates the critical role that consumer-dependent resource vital rates can play in competitive dynamics in a wide range of biological systems.

The effect of stochiastic technique on estimates of population viability from transition matrix models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaye, T.N.; Pyke, David A.

2003-01-01

Population viability analysis is an important tool for conservation biologists, and matrix models that incorporate stochasticity are commonly used for this purpose. However, stochastic simulations may require assumptions about the distribution of matrix parameters, and modelers often select a statistical distribution that seems reasonable without sufficient data to test its fit. We used data from long-term (5a??10 year) studies with 27 populations of five perennial plant species to compare seven methods of incorporating environmental stochasticity. We estimated stochastic population growth rate (a measure of viability) using a matrix-selection method, in which whole observed matrices were selected at random at each time step of the model. In addition, we drew matrix elements (transition probabilities) at random using various statistical distributions: beta, truncated-gamma, truncated-normal, triangular, uniform, or discontinuous/observed. Recruitment rates were held constant at their observed mean values. Two methods of constraining stage-specific survival to a??100% were also compared. Different methods of incorporating stochasticity and constraining matrix column sums interacted in their effects and resulted in different estimates of stochastic growth rate (differing by up to 16%). Modelers should be aware that when constraining stage-specific survival to 100%, different methods may introduce different levels of bias in transition element means, and when this happens, different distributions for generating random transition elements may result in different viability estimates. There was no species effect on the results and the growth rates derived from all methods were highly correlated with one another. We conclude that the absolute value of population viability estimates is sensitive to model assumptions, but the relative ranking of populations (and management treatments) is robust. Furthermore, these results are applicable to a range of perennial plants and possibly other life histories.

Counseling middle-aged women about physical activity using the stages of change.

PubMed

Dearden, Jennifer S; Sheahan, Sharon L

2002-11-01

To discuss application of the Stages of Change theoretical framework and provide clinical tips on exercise adherence among midlife women. Included is a checklist to assist the nurse practitioner (NP) in effectively delivering the message. Review of the current scientific literature on exercise adherence and the Stages of Change model. Middle-aged women comprise a unique population. Determining the woman's readiness for change using the Stages of Change model, NPs can routinely include appropriate exercise recommendations in their practices. Nurse practitioners are in a unique position to promote healthy behaviors by counseling women in midlife about adopting an active lifestyle. Exercise counseling is an essential component of healthcare, especially among middle-aged women who are experiencing physical, emotional, and social changes.

Scaffolding in a Medicine Education Intervention for Student Teachers Based on the PROFILES Three Stage Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kärkkäinen, Sirpa; Kukkonen, Jari; Keinonen, Tuula

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on describing the effects of scaffolding on the student teachers' learning process. The scaffolding is based on using information and communication technology in the PROFILES Three Stage Model; Scenario, Inquiry and Decision-making Stages. Six hours of medicine education intervention is conducted as a part of the student…

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

2017 Louisiana variety development program infield trials

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The infield stage of variety development is the first stage in which yield estimates are based on plot weights instead of estimated yields derived from stalk population and stalk weight. Varieties from the LSU AgCenter program (L’ s) are planted in infield tests the year after assignment while vari...

Tumor size and stage of breast cancer in Côte d'Ivoire and Republic of Congo - Results from population-based cancer registries.

PubMed

Islami, Farhad; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Okello, Catherine; Adoubi, Innocent; Mbalawa, Charles Gombé; Ward, Elizabeth M; Parkin, D Maxwell; Jemal, Ahmedin

2015-12-01

Breast cancer is now the leading female cancer in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is relatively little information on breast cancer characteristics from this region. We studied, on a population basis, the size and stage of female breast cancer at diagnosis in Côte d'Ivoire and Republic of Congo. Data on tumor size and stage of breast cancer at diagnosis were collected by population-based cancer registries in Abidjan (the capital of Côte d'Ivoire; 141 cases) and Brazzaville (the capital of Republic of Congo; 139 cases) from a random group of female breast cancer cases that were diagnosed in 2008-2009 using the same protocol. The majority of breast cancers in both countries were advanced cancers. In Côte d'Ivoire, 68% of tumors were ≥5 cm in diameter and 74% of cancers were stage III or IV at diagnosis; the corresponding proportions in Republic of Congo were 63% and 81%. These results underscore the importance of increased awareness about early detection of breast cancer, as well as expansion of the capacity to provide appropriate diagnosis, treatment, and palliative care in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature on Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) larvae and pupae.

PubMed

Keena, M A; Moore, P M

2010-08-01

Developmental thresholds, degree-days for development, larval weights, and head capsule widths for each larval instar and the pupal stage of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) were studied at eight constant temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40°C) for two source populations (Ravenswood, Chicago, IL [IL], and Bayside, Queens, NY [NY]). The estimated lower threshold temperature for development of instars 1-5 and the pupal stage was near 10°C and was near 12°C for the higher instars. Developmental rate was less temperature sensitive for instars 5-9 compared with instars 1-4. Development for all but the first instar was inhibited at constant temperatures >30°C, and all instars failed to develop at 40°C. Although the two source populations had similar responses to temperature, IL larvae were heavier than those from NY. Temperature and its influence on larval weight had profound impacts on whether a larva proceeded to pupation. Based on the temperature effects detailed here, larval development and pupation should be possible in most of the continental United States where suitable hosts are available. These data can be used to develop a degree-day model to estimate beetle phenology; however, at least 2°C should be added to air temperatures to adjust for the mediation of temperature by the wood. These data provide a basis for predicting the potential geographical range of this species and for developing phenological models to predict the timing of immature stages, both of which are important for management programs.

DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

2014-05-01

In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J.K., Hunter, G.J. (2007) A spatio-temporal population model to support risk assessment and damage analysis for decision-making. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 21(8), 935-953. Aubrecht, C., Fuchs, S., Neuhold, C. (2013a) Spatio-temporal aspects and dimensions in integrated disaster risk management. Natural Hazards, 68(3), 1205-1216. Aubrecht, C., Özceylan, D., Steinnocher, K., Freire, S. (2013b) Multi-level geospatial modeling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators. Natural Hazards, 68(1), 147-163. Bhaduri, B. (2008) Population distribution during the day. In S. Shekhar & X. Hui, eds., Encyclopedia of GIS. Springer US, 880-885. Cockings, S., Martin, D. & Leung, S. (2010) Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models. In M. Haklay, J. Morley, & H. Rahemtulla, eds., Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual conference. GISRUK 2010. London, UK, 41-47. Freire, S., Aubrecht, C. (2012) Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(11), 3533-3543.

Administration of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II-III colon cancer patients: An European population-based study.

PubMed

Babaei, Masoud; Balavarca, Yesilda; Jansen, Lina; Lemmens, Valery; van Erning, Felice N; van Eycken, Liesbet; Vaes, Evelien; Sjövall, Annika; Glimelius, Bengt; Ulrich, Cornelia M; Schrotz-King, Petra; Brenner, Hermann

2018-04-01

The advantage of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) for treating Stage III colon cancer patients is well established and widely accepted. However, many patients with Stage III colon cancer do not receive ACT. Moreover, there are controversies around the effectiveness of ACT for Stage II patients. We investigated the administration of ACT and its association with overall survival in resected Stage II (overall and stratified by low-/high-risk) and Stage III colon cancer patients in three European countries including The Netherlands (2009-2014), Belgium (2009-2013) and Sweden (2009-2014). Hazard ratios (HR) for death were obtained by Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders. A total of 60244 resected colon cancer patients with pathological Stages II and III were analyzed. A small proportion (range 9-24%) of Stage II and over half (range 55-68%) of Stage III patients received ACT. Administration of ACT in Stages II and III tumors decreased with higher age of patients. Administration of ACT was significantly associated with higher overall survival in high-risk Stage II patients (in The Netherlands (HR; 95%CI = 0.82 (0.67-0.99), Belgium (0.73; 0.59-0.90) and Sweden (0.58; 0.44-0.75)), and in Stage III patients (in The Netherlands (0.47; 0.43-0.50), Belgium (0.46; 0.41-0.50) and Sweden (0.48; 0.43-0.54)). In Stage III, results were consistent across subgroups including elderly patients. Our results show an association of ACT with higher survival among Stage III and high-risk Stage II colon cancer patients. Further investigations are needed on the selection criteria of Stages II and III colon cancer patients for ACT. © 2017 UICC.

Socioeconomic position and surgery for early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer: A population-based study in Denmark.

PubMed

Kærgaard Starr, Laila; Osler, Merete; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Lidegaard Frederiksen, Birgitte; Jakobsen, Erik; Østerlind, Kell; Schüz, Joachim; Johansen, Christoffer; Oksbjerg Dalton, Susanne

2013-03-01

To examine possible associations between socioeconomic position and surgical treatment of patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In a register-based clinical cohort study, patients with early-stage (stages I-IIIa) NSCLC were identified in the Danish Lung Cancer Register 2001-2008 (date of diagnosis, histology, stage, and treatment), the Central Population Register (vital status), the Integrated Database for Labour Market Research (socioeconomic position), and the Danish Hospital Discharge Register (comorbidity). Logistic regression analyses were performed overall and separately for stages I, II and IIIa. Of the 5538 eligible patients with stages I-IIIa NSCLC diagnosed 2001-2008, 53% underwent surgery. Higher stage, older age, being female and diagnosis early in the study period were associated with higher odds for not receiving surgery. Low disposable income was associated with greater odds for no surgery in stage I and stage II patients as was living alone for stage I patients. Comorbidity, a short diagnostic interval and small diagnostic volume were all associated with higher odds for not undergoing surgery; but these factors did not appear to explain the association with income or living alone for early-stage NSCLC patients. Early-stage NSCLC patients with low income or who live alone are less likely to undergo surgery than those with a high income or who live with a partner, even after control for possible explanatory factors. Thus, even in a health care system with free, equal access to health services, disadvantaged groups are less likely to receive surgery for lung cancer. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic factors associated with drug consumption in prison population in Mexico.

PubMed

Nevárez-Sida, Armando; Constantino-Casas, Patricia; Castro-Ríos, Angélica

2012-01-13

Consumption of illegal drugs is a public health problem in Mexico, and the prison population is a vulnerable group with higher rates of prevalence than in the general population. The objective of this study was to determine the main socioeconomic variables associated with drug consumption in the prison population. Utilizing data from the Second Incarcerated Population Survey carried out by the Centre of Research and Teaching of Economics (CIDE) in Mexico, a logistic model in two stages was developed. The first stage analyzed the determinants of habitual drug consumption by prisoners (prior to admittance into prisons), while the second stage of the model addressed drug consumption within prisons. Prevalence of drug consumption previous to incarceration was 28.5%, although once people were imprisoned this figure dropped to 7.4%. The characteristics that most heavily influenced against the possibility of habitual drug consumption prior to admittance to prison were: preparatory school or higher, being employed and having children; while the variables associated negatively were: male gender, childhood home shared with adults who consumed illegal drugs; abandoning childhood home; and having previous prison sentences. Once in prison, the negative conditions in there are associated with drug consumption. Work and study during incarceration, in addition to being instruments for rehabilitation, seem to exert an important positive association against drug consumption. However, this correlation seems to be minimized in the face of negative conditions of the penal institution; thus, public policies are necessary to improve the prisoner's environment.

Socioeconomic factors associated with drug consumption in prison population in Mexico

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Consumption of illegal drugs is a public health problem in Mexico, and the prison population is a vulnerable group with higher rates of prevalence than in the general population. The objective of this study was to determine the main socioeconomic variables associated with drug consumption in the prison population. Methods Utilizing data from the Second Incarcerated Population Survey carried out by the Centre of Research and Teaching of Economics (CIDE) in Mexico, a logistic model in two stages was developed. The first stage analyzed the determinants of habitual drug consumption by prisoners (prior to admittance into prisons), while the second stage of the model addressed drug consumption within prisons. Results Prevalence of drug consumption previous to incarceration was 28.5%, although once people were imprisoned this figure dropped to 7.4%. The characteristics that most heavily influenced against the possibility of habitual drug consumption prior to admittance to prison were: preparatory school or higher, being employed and having children; while the variables associated negatively were: male gender, childhood home shared with adults who consumed illegal drugs; abandoning childhood home; and having previous prison sentences. Once in prison, the negative conditions in there are associated with drug consumption. Conclusions Work and study during incarceration, in addition to being instruments for rehabilitation, seem to exert an important positive association against drug consumption. However, this correlation seems to be minimized in the face of negative conditions of the penal institution; thus, public policies are necessary to improve the prisoner's environment. PMID:22244315

Effectiveness of a stepped primary care smoking cessation intervention (ISTAPS study): design of a cluster randomised trial

PubMed Central

Cabezas, Carmen; Martin, Carlos; Granollers, Silvia; Morera, Concepció; Ballve, Josep Lluis; Zarza, Elvira; Blade, Jordi; Borras, Margarida; Serra, Antoni; Puente, Diana

2009-01-01

Background There is a considerable body of evidence on the effectiveness of specific interventions in individuals who wish to quit smoking. However, there are no large-scale studies testing the whole range of interventions currently recommended for helping people to give up smoking; specifically those interventions that include motivational interviews for individuals who are not interested in quitting smoking in the immediate to short term. Furthermore, many of the published studies were undertaken in specialized units or by a small group of motivated primary care centres. The objective of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a stepped smoking cessation intervention based on a trans-theoretical model of change, applied to an extensive group of Primary Care Centres (PCC). Methods/Design Cluster randomised clinical trial. Unit of randomization: basic unit of care consisting of a family physician and a nurse, both of whom care for the same population (aprox. 2000 people). Intention to treat analysis. Study population: Smokers (n = 3024) aged 14 to 75 years consulting for any reason to PCC and who provided written informed consent to participate in the trial. Intervention: 6-month implementation of recommendations of a Clinical Practice Guideline which includes brief motivational interviews for smokers at the precontemplation – contemplation stage, brief intervention for smokers in preparation-action who do not want help, intensive intervention with pharmacotherapy for smokers in preparation-action who want help, and reinforcing intervention in the maintenance stage. Control group: usual care. Outcome measures: Self-reported abstinence confirmed by exhaled air carbon monoxide concentration of ≤ 10 parts per million. Points of assessment: end of intervention period and 1 and 2 years post-intervention; continuous abstinence rate for 1 year; change in smoking cessation stage; health status measured by SF-36. Discussion The application of a stepped intervention based on the stages of a change model is possible under real and diverse clinical practice conditions, and improves the smoking cessation success rate in smokers, besides of their intention or not to give up smoking at baseline. Trial Registration Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT00125905 PMID:19193233

Prior Tubal Ligation Might Influence Metastatic Spread of Nonendometrioid Endometrial Carcinoma.

PubMed

Li, Mingxia; Li, Mingzhu; Zhao, Lijun; Wang, Zhiqi; Wang, Yue; Shen, Danhua; Wang, Jianliu; Wei, Lihui

2016-07-01

The exfoliation of endometrial carcinoma might intraperitoneally spread through the fallopian tube. We analyzed the influence of prior tubal ligation (TL) in endometrial carcinoma to evaluate whether it can prevent the process and improve patients' survival. A total of 562 patients with a diagnosis of endometrial carcinoma at the Peking University People's Hospital between July 1995 and June 2012 were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into 2 groups based on the presence or absence of prior TL. International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage distributions, recurrence rates, survival status, and histopathological findings were compared between the 2 groups. Kaplan-Meier estimates and log-rank tests were used to compare the survival status based on TL in the overall population and stratified by histopathological subtypes and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stages. Cox models analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between TL and carcinoma-specific mortality. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Of the 562 patients, 482 (85.7%) had a diagnosis of endometrioid and 80 patients (14.2%) with nonendometrioid carcinoma. Tubal ligation was associated with negative peritoneal cytology in the total population (P = 0.015) and in patients with endometrioid carcinomas (P = 0.02) but not help to reduce carcinoma-specific mortality (P = 0.095 and P = 0.277, respectively). In the nonendometrioid group, TL was not only associated with negative peritoneal cytology (P = 0.004) but also with lower stage (P < 0.001) and lower recurrence rate(P < 0.005), resulting in improved prognosis (P = 0.022). In Cox models analysis adjusted for covariates, TL was inversely associated with lower endometrial carcinoma-specific mortality (hazard ratio, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-2.6). Tubal ligation was associated with lower positive peritoneal cytology, stages, and recurrence rate, and improved prognosis among patients with nonendometrioid carcinoma. Tubal ligation might influence metastatic spread of nonendometrioid endometrial carcinoma. It could also help to reduce positive peritoneal cytology among patients with endometrioid carcinoma, but lacked prognostic significance.

Molecular Characterization of Swine Manure Lagoon Microbial and Antibiotic Resistant Populations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: The differences in swine manure lagoon effluent based on differing management styles or approaches such as different stages of swine rearing determines the presence of variable antibiotic resistance determinants and functional microbial populations. These concerns determine the suitabil...

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. Methods An epidemic is characterized trough an individual–based–model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. Results A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. Conclusions The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease. PMID:24725804

Meaningful engagement of people living with HIV who use drugs: methodology for the design of a Peer Research Associate (PRA) hiring model.

PubMed

Closson, K; McNeil, R; McDougall, P; Fernando, S; Collins, A B; Baltzer Turje, R; Howard, T; Parashar, S

2016-10-07

Community-based HIV, harm reduction, and addiction research increasingly involve members of affected communities as Peer Research Associates (PRAs)-individuals with common experiences to the participant population (e.g. people who use drugs, people living with HIV [PLHIV]). However, there is a paucity of literature detailing the operationalization of PRA hiring and thus limited understanding regarding how affected communities can be meaningfully involved through low-barrier engagement in paid positions within community-based participatory research (CBPR) projects. We aim to address this gap by describing a low-threshold PRA hiring process. In 2012, the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS and the Dr. Peter AIDS Foundation collaborated to develop a mixed-method CBPR project evaluating the effectiveness of the Dr. Peter Centre (DPC)-an integrative HIV care facility in Vancouver, Canada. A primary objective of the study was to assess the impact of DPC services among clients who have a history of illicit drug use. In keeping with CBPR principles, affected populations, community-based organizations, and key stakeholders guided the development and dissemination of a low-barrier PRA hiring process to meaningfully engage affected communities (e.g. PLHIV who have a history of illicit drug use) in all aspects of the research project. The hiring model was implemented in a number of stages, including (1) the establishment of a hiring team; (2) the development and dissemination of the job posting; (3) interviewing applicants; and (4) the selection of participants. The hiring model presented in this paper demonstrates the benefits of hiring vulnerable PLHIV who use drugs as PRAs in community-based research. The provision of low-barrier access to meaningful research employment described herein attempts to engage affected communities beyond tokenistic involvement in research. Our hiring model was successful at engaging five PRAs over a 2-year period and fostered opportunities for future paid employment or volunteer opportunities through ongoing collaboration between PRAs and a diverse range of stakeholders working in HIV/AIDS and addictions. Additionally, this model has the potential to be used across a range of studies and community-based settings interested in meaningfully engaging communities in all stages of the research process.

BayeSED: A General Approach to Fitting the Spectral Energy Distribution of Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Yunkun; Han, Zhanwen

2014-11-01

We present a newly developed version of BayeSED, a general Bayesian approach to the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting of galaxies. The new BayeSED code has been systematically tested on a mock sample of galaxies. The comparison between the estimated and input values of the parameters shows that BayeSED can recover the physical parameters of galaxies reasonably well. We then applied BayeSED to interpret the SEDs of a large Ks -selected sample of galaxies in the COSMOS/UltraVISTA field with stellar population synthesis models. Using the new BayeSED code, a Bayesian model comparison of stellar population synthesis models has been performed for the first time. We found that the 2003 model by Bruzual & Charlot, statistically speaking, has greater Bayesian evidence than the 2005 model by Maraston for the Ks -selected sample. In addition, while setting the stellar metallicity as a free parameter obviously increases the Bayesian evidence of both models, varying the initial mass function has a notable effect only on the Maraston model. Meanwhile, the physical parameters estimated with BayeSED are found to be generally consistent with those obtained using the popular grid-based FAST code, while the former parameters exhibit more natural distributions. Based on the estimated physical parameters of the galaxies in the sample, we qualitatively classified the galaxies in the sample into five populations that may represent galaxies at different evolution stages or in different environments. We conclude that BayeSED could be a reliable and powerful tool for investigating the formation and evolution of galaxies from the rich multi-wavelength observations currently available. A binary version of the BayeSED code parallelized with Message Passing Interface is publicly available at https://bitbucket.org/hanyk/bayesed.

BayeSED: A GENERAL APPROACH TO FITTING THE SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION OF GALAXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Yunkun; Han, Zhanwen, E-mail: hanyk@ynao.ac.cn, E-mail: zhanwenhan@ynao.ac.cn

2014-11-01

We present a newly developed version of BayeSED, a general Bayesian approach to the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting of galaxies. The new BayeSED code has been systematically tested on a mock sample of galaxies. The comparison between the estimated and input values of the parameters shows that BayeSED can recover the physical parameters of galaxies reasonably well. We then applied BayeSED to interpret the SEDs of a large K{sub s} -selected sample of galaxies in the COSMOS/UltraVISTA field with stellar population synthesis models. Using the new BayeSED code, a Bayesian model comparison of stellar population synthesis models has beenmore » performed for the first time. We found that the 2003 model by Bruzual and Charlot, statistically speaking, has greater Bayesian evidence than the 2005 model by Maraston for the K{sub s} -selected sample. In addition, while setting the stellar metallicity as a free parameter obviously increases the Bayesian evidence of both models, varying the initial mass function has a notable effect only on the Maraston model. Meanwhile, the physical parameters estimated with BayeSED are found to be generally consistent with those obtained using the popular grid-based FAST code, while the former parameters exhibit more natural distributions. Based on the estimated physical parameters of the galaxies in the sample, we qualitatively classified the galaxies in the sample into five populations that may represent galaxies at different evolution stages or in different environments. We conclude that BayeSED could be a reliable and powerful tool for investigating the formation and evolution of galaxies from the rich multi-wavelength observations currently available. A binary version of the BayeSED code parallelized with Message Passing Interface is publicly available at https://bitbucket.org/hanyk/bayesed.« less

Readiness for behavioral change and variation in food consumption among adolescents from a school-based community trial in Duque de Caxias, RJ.

PubMed

Cunha, Diana Barbosa; de Souza, Bárbara da Silva Nalin; da Veiga, Glória Valéria; Pereira, Rosangela Alves; Sichieri, Rosely

2015-01-01

To investigate the influence of the stage of readiness for changes in food consumption variation among adolescents participating in school-based community trial in Duque de Caxias (RJ), Brazil. It is a secondary analysis of a one-year randomized community trial to prevent excessive weight gain in students attending the 5th grade in 20 public schools in the municipality of Duque de Caxias. The activities conducted discouraged the consumption of sweetened beverages and cookies and encouraged the consumption of fruits and beans. A food frequency questionnaire was applied at the beginning and at the end of the study. The stages of readiness for behavioral change vary in a scale from (1) "I don't think of changing diet" to (5) "I'm already changing my diet successfully". For the longitudinal analyses, we used generalized linear mixed models. There was a greater change in the consumption of fruit and soft drinks among participants in the intervention group who were in the action stage, compared to participants who did not think about changing their diet. The proposed strategy may be used to identify population groups with motivation for changes in dietary behavior.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Training tomorrow's global health leaders: applying a transtheoretical model to identify behavior change stages within an intervention for health leadership development.

PubMed

Daniels, Joseph; Farquhar, Carey; Nathanson, Neal; Mashalla, Yohana; Petracca, Frances; Desmond, Michelle; Green, Wendy; Davies, Luke; O'Malley, Gabrielle

2014-12-01

Training health professionals in leadership and management skills is a key component of health systems strengthening in low-resource settings. The importance of evaluating the effectiveness of these programs has received increased attention over the past several years, although such evaluations continue to pose significant challenges. This article presents evaluation data from the pilot year of the Afya Bora Fellowship, an African-based training program to increase the leadership capacity of health professionals. Firstly, we describe the goals of the Afya Bora Fellowship. Then, we present an adaptation of the transtheoretical model for behavior change called the Health Leadership Development Model, as an analytical lens to identify and describe evidence of individual leadership behavior change among training participants during and shortly after the pilot year of the program. The Health Leadership Development Model includes the following: pre-contemplation (status quo), contemplation (testing and internalizing leadership), preparation - (moving toward leadership), action (leadership in action), and maintenance (effecting organizational change). We used data from surveys, in-depth interviews, journal entries and course evaluations as data points to populate the Health Leadership Development Model. In the short term, fellows demonstrated increased leadership development during and shortly after the intervention and reflected the contemplation, preparation and action stages of the Health Leadership Development Model. However, expanded interventions and/or additional time may be needed to support behavior change toward the maintenance stages. We conclude that the Health Leadership Development Model is useful for informing health leadership training design and evaluation to contribute to sustainable health organizational change. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Technology Pathway for Airbreathing, Combined-Cycle, Horizontal Space Launch Through SR-71 Based Trajectory Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kloesel, Kurt J.; Ratnayake, Nalin A.; Clark, Casie M.

2011-01-01

Access to space is in the early stages of commercialization. Private enterprises, mainly under direct or indirect subsidy by the government, have been making headway into the LEO launch systems infrastructure, of small-weight-class payloads of approximately 1000 lbs. These moderate gains have emboldened the launch industry and they are poised to move into the middle-weight class (roughly 5000 lbs). These commercially successful systems are based on relatively straightforward LOX-RP, two-stage, bi-propellant rocket technology developed by the government 40 years ago, accompanied by many technology improvements. In this paper we examine a known generic LOX-RP system with the focus on the booster stage (1st stage). The booster stage is then compared to modeled Rocket-Based and Turbine-Based Combined Cycle booster stages. The air-breathing propulsion stages are based on/or extrapolated from known performance parameters of ground tested RBCC (the Marquardt Ejector Ramjet) and TBCC (the SR-71/J-58 engine) data. Validated engine models using GECAT and SCCREAM are coupled with trajectory optimization and analysis in POST-II to explore viable launch scenarios using hypothetical aerospaceplane platform obeying the aerodynamic model of the SR-71. Finally, and assessment is made of the requisite research technology advances necessary for successful commercial and government adoption of combined-cycle engine systems for space access.

Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

2017-08-01

We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 < 1 while remains persistent if R0 > 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

Differences in Connection Strength between Mental Symptoms Might Be Explained by Differences in Variance: Reanalysis of Network Data Did Not Confirm Staging.

PubMed

Terluin, Berend; de Boer, Michiel R; de Vet, Henrica C W

2016-01-01

The network approach to psychopathology conceives mental disorders as sets of symptoms causally impacting on each other. The strengths of the connections between symptoms are key elements in the description of those symptom networks. Typically, the connections are analysed as linear associations (i.e., correlations or regression coefficients). However, there is insufficient awareness of the fact that differences in variance may account for differences in connection strength. Differences in variance frequently occur when subgroups are based on skewed data. An illustrative example is a study published in PLoS One (2013;8(3):e59559) that aimed to test the hypothesis that the development of psychopathology through "staging" was characterized by increasing connection strength between mental states. Three mental states (negative affect, positive affect, and paranoia) were studied in severity subgroups of a general population sample. The connection strength was found to increase with increasing severity in six of nine models. However, the method used (linear mixed modelling) is not suitable for skewed data. We reanalysed the data using inverse Gaussian generalized linear mixed modelling, a method suited for positively skewed data (such as symptoms in the general population). The distribution of positive affect was normal, but the distributions of negative affect and paranoia were heavily skewed. The variance of the skewed variables increased with increasing severity. Reanalysis of the data did not confirm increasing connection strength, except for one of nine models. Reanalysis of the data did not provide convincing evidence in support of staging as characterized by increasing connection strength between mental states. Network researchers should be aware that differences in connection strength between symptoms may be caused by differences in variances, in which case they should not be interpreted as differences in impact of one symptom on another symptom.

Predicting the impact of population level risk reduction in cardio-vascular disease and stroke on acute hospital admission rates over a 5 year period--a pilot study.

PubMed

Whitfield, Malcolm D; Gillett, Michael; Holmes, Michael; Ogden, Elaine

2006-12-01

The brief for this study was to produce a practical, evidence based, financial planning tool, which could be used to present an economic argument for funding a public health-based prevention programme in coronary heart disease (CHD) related illness on the same basis as treatment interventions. To explore the possibility of using multivariate risk prediction equations, derived from the Framingham and other studies, to estimate how many people in a population are likely to be admitted to hospital in the next 5-10 years with cardio vascular disease (CVD) related events such as heart attacks, strokes, heart failure and kidney disease. To estimate the potential financial impact of reductions in hospital admissions, on an 'invest to save' basis, if primary care trusts (PCTs) were to invest in public health based interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk at a population level. The populations of five UK PCTs were entered into a spreadsheet based decision tree model, in terms of age and sex (this equated to around 620,000 adults). An estimation was made to determine how many people, in each age group, were likely to be diabetic. Population risk factors such as smoking rates, mean body mass index (BMI), mean total cholesterol and mean systolic blood pressure were entered by age group. The spreadsheet then used a variant of the Framingham equation to calculate how many non-diabetic people in each age group were likely to have a heart attack or stroke in the next 5 years. In addition heart failure and dialysis admission rates were estimated based upon risk factors for incidence. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engines 56 and 60 were used to calculate the risk of CHD and stroke, respectively, in people with type 2 diabetes. The spreadsheet deducted the number of people likely to die before reaching hospital and produced a predicted number of hospital admissions for each category over a 5-year period. The final part of the calculation attached a cost to the hospital activity using the UK Health Resource Grouping (HRG) tariffs. The predicted number of events in each of the primary care trusts was then compared with the actual number of events the previous year (2004/2005). The study used a decision tree type model, which was populated with data from the research literature. The model applied the risk equations to population data from five primary care trusts to estimate how many people would suffer from an acute CVD related event over the next 5 years. The predicted number of events was then compared with the actual number of acute admissions for heart attacks, strokes, heart failure, acute hypoglycaemic attacks, renal failure and coronary bypass surgery the previous year. The first outcome of the model was to compare the estimated number of people in each PCT likely to suffer from a heart attack, a stroke, heart failure or chronic kidney failure with the actual number the previous year 2004/2005. The predicted number was remarkably accurate in the case of heart attack and stroke. There was some over-prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) which could be accounted for by known under-diagnosis in this illness group and the inability of the model to pick up, at this stage, the fact that many CKD patients die of a CHD related event before they reach the stage of requiring renal replacement. The second outcome of the model was to estimate the financial consequence of risk reduction. Moderate reductions in risk in the order of around 2-4% were estimated to lead to saving in acute admission costs or around pounds sterling 5.4 million over 5 years. More ambitious targets of risk reduction in the order of 5-6% led to estimated savings of around pounds sterling 8.7 million. This study is not presented as the definitive approach to predicting the economic consequences of investment in public health on the cost of secondary care. It is simply a logical, systematic approach to quantifying these issues in order to present a business case for such investment. The research team do not know if the predicted savings would accrue from such investments; it is theoretical at this stage. The point is, however, that if the predictions are correct then the savings will accrue from over 4000 people, from an adult population of around 185,000 not having a heart attack or a stroke or an acute exacerbation of heart failure.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

A Nonlinear Mixed Effects Approach for Modeling the Cell-To-Cell Variability of Mig1 Dynamics in Yeast

PubMed Central

Almquist, Joachim; Bendrioua, Loubna; Adiels, Caroline Beck; Goksör, Mattias; Hohmann, Stefan; Jirstrand, Mats

2015-01-01

The last decade has seen a rapid development of experimental techniques that allow data collection from individual cells. These techniques have enabled the discovery and characterization of variability within a population of genetically identical cells. Nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) modeling is an established framework for studying variability between individuals in a population, frequently used in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, but its potential for studies of cell-to-cell variability in molecular cell biology is yet to be exploited. Here we take advantage of this novel application of NLME modeling to study cell-to-cell variability in the dynamic behavior of the yeast transcription repressor Mig1. In particular, we investigate a recently discovered phenomenon where Mig1 during a short and transient period exits the nucleus when cells experience a shift from high to intermediate levels of extracellular glucose. A phenomenological model based on ordinary differential equations describing the transient dynamics of nuclear Mig1 is introduced, and according to the NLME methodology the parameters of this model are in turn modeled by a multivariate probability distribution. Using time-lapse microscopy data from nearly 200 cells, we estimate this parameter distribution according to the approach of maximizing the population likelihood. Based on the estimated distribution, parameter values for individual cells are furthermore characterized and the resulting Mig1 dynamics are compared to the single cell times-series data. The proposed NLME framework is also compared to the intuitive but limited standard two-stage (STS) approach. We demonstrate that the latter may overestimate variabilities by up to almost five fold. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations of the inferred population model are used to predict the distribution of key characteristics of the Mig1 transient response. We find that with decreasing levels of post-shift glucose, the transient response of Mig1 tend to be faster, more extended, and displays an increased cell-to-cell variability. PMID:25893847

Symbolic rule-based classification of lung cancer stages from free-text pathology reports.

PubMed

Nguyen, Anthony N; Lawley, Michael J; Hansen, David P; Bowman, Rayleen V; Clarke, Belinda E; Duhig, Edwina E; Colquist, Shoni

2010-01-01

To classify automatically lung tumor-node-metastases (TNM) cancer stages from free-text pathology reports using symbolic rule-based classification. By exploiting report substructure and the symbolic manipulation of systematized nomenclature of medicine-clinical terms (SNOMED CT) concepts in reports, statements in free text can be evaluated for relevance against factors relating to the staging guidelines. Post-coordinated SNOMED CT expressions based on templates were defined and populated by concepts in reports, and tested for subsumption by staging factors. The subsumption results were used to build logic according to the staging guidelines to calculate the TNM stage. The accuracy measure and confusion matrices were used to evaluate the TNM stages classified by the symbolic rule-based system. The system was evaluated against a database of multidisciplinary team staging decisions and a machine learning-based text classification system using support vector machines. Overall accuracy on a corpus of pathology reports for 718 lung cancer patients against a database of pathological TNM staging decisions were 72%, 78%, and 94% for T, N, and M staging, respectively. The system's performance was also comparable to support vector machine classification approaches. A system to classify lung TNM stages from free-text pathology reports was developed, and it was verified that the symbolic rule-based approach using SNOMED CT can be used for the extraction of key lung cancer characteristics from free-text reports. Future work will investigate the applicability of using the proposed methodology for extracting other cancer characteristics and types.

Can theory predict the process of suicide on entry to prison? Predicting dynamic risk factors for suicide ideation in a high-risk prison population.

PubMed

Slade, Karen; Edelman, Robert

2014-01-01

Each year approximately 110,000 people are imprisoned in England and Wales and new prisoners remain one of the highest risk groups for suicide across the world. The reduction of suicide in prisoners remains difficult as assessments and interventions tend to rely on static risk factors with few theoretical or integrated models yet evaluated. To identify the dynamic factors that contribute to suicide ideation in this population based on Williams and Pollock's (2001) Cry of Pain (CoP) model. New arrivals (N = 198) into prison were asked to complete measures derived from the CoP model plus clinical and prison-specific factors. It was hypothesized that the factors of the CoP model would be predictive of suicide ideation. Support was provided for the defeat and entrapment aspects of the CoP model with previous self-harm, repeated times in prison, and suicide-permissive cognitions also key in predicting suicide ideation for prisoners on entry to prison. An integrated and dynamic model was developed that has utility in predicting suicide in early-stage prisoners. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed along with recommendations for future research.

DEVELOPMENT OF COLD CLIMATE HEAT PUMP USING TWO-STAGE COMPRESSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Bo; Rice, C Keith; Abdelaziz, Omar

2015-01-01

This paper uses a well-regarded, hardware based heat pump system model to investigate a two-stage economizing cycle for cold climate heat pump applications. The two-stage compression cycle has two variable-speed compressors. The high stage compressor was modelled using a compressor map, and the low stage compressor was experimentally studied using calorimeter testing. A single-stage heat pump system was modelled as the baseline. The system performance predictions are compared between the two-stage and single-stage systems. Special considerations for designing a cold climate heat pump are addressed at both the system and component levels.

Health Behavior and Behavioral Economics: Economic Preferences and Physical Activity Stages of Change in a Low-Income African American Community

PubMed Central

Leonard, Tammy; Shuval, Kerem; de Oliveira, Angela; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Eckel, Catherine; Murdoch, James C.

2014-01-01

Purpose To examine the relationship between physical activity stages of change and preferences for financial risk and time. Design A cross-sectional, community-based study. Setting A low-income, urban, African American neighborhood. Subjects 169 adults Measures Self-reported physical activity stages of change—precontemplation to maintenance, objectively measured BMI and waist circumference, and economic preferences for time and risk measured via incentivized economic experiments. Analysis Multivariable ordered logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity stages of change and economic preferences while controlling for demographic characteristics of the individuals. Results Individuals who are more tolerant of financial risks (OR=1.31, p<0.05) and whose time preferences indicate more patience (OR=1.68, p<0.01) are more likely to be in a more advanced physical activity stage (e.g. from preparation to action). The likelihood of being in the maintenance stage increases by 5.6 and 10.9 percentage points for each 1 unit increase in financial risk tolerance or 1 unit increase in the time preference measure, respectively. Conclusions Greater tolerance of financial risk and more patient time preferences among this low-income ethnic minority population are associated with a more advanced physical activity stage. Further exploration is clearly warranted in larger and more representative samples. PMID:23448410

Demographic variation across successional stages and their effects on the population dynamics of the neotropical palm Euterpe precatoria.

PubMed

Otárola, Mauricio Fernández; Avalos, Gerardo

2014-06-01

• Premise of the study: Environmental heterogeneity is a strong selective force shaping adaptation and population dynamics across temporal and spatial scales. Natural and anthropogenic gradients influence the variation of environmental and biotic factors, which determine population demography and dynamics. Successional gradients are expected to influence demographic parameters, but the relationship between these gradients and the species life history, habitat requirements, and degree of variation in demographic traits remains elusive.• Methods: We used the palm Euterpe precatoria to test the effect of successional stage on plant demography within a continuous population. We calculated demographic parameters for size stages and performed matrix analyses to investigate the demographic variation within primary and secondary forests of La Selva, Costa Rica.• Key results: We observed differences in mortality and recruitment of small juveniles between primary and secondary forests. Matrix models described satisfactorily the chronosequence of population changes, which were characterized by high population growth rate in disturbed areas, and decreased growth rate in old successional forests until reaching stability.• Conclusions: Different demographic parameters can be expressed in contiguous subpopulations along a gradient of successional stages with important consequences for population dynamics. Demographic variation superimposed on these gradients contributes to generate subpopulations with different demographic composition, density, and ecological properties. Therefore, the effects of spatial variation must be reconsidered in the design of demographic analyses of tropical palms, which are prime examples of subtle local adaptation. These considerations are crucial in the implementation of management plans for palm species within spatially complex and heterogeneous tropical landscapes. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte grade in primary melanomas is independently associated with melanoma-specific survival in the population-based genes, environment and melanoma study.

PubMed

Thomas, Nancy E; Busam, Klaus J; From, Lynn; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gruber, Stephen B; Gallagher, Richard P; Zanetti, Roberto; Rosso, Stefano; Dwyer, Terence; Venn, Alison; Kanetsky, Peter A; Groben, Pamela A; Hao, Honglin; Orlow, Irene; Reiner, Anne S; Luo, Li; Paine, Susan; Ollila, David W; Wilcox, Homer; Begg, Colin B; Berwick, Marianne

2013-11-20

Although most hospital-based studies suggest more favorable survival with tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) present in primary melanomas, it is uncertain whether TILs provide prognostic information beyond existing melanoma staging definitions. We addressed the issue in an international population-based study of patients with single and multiple primary melanomas. On the basis of the Genes, Environment and Melanoma (GEM) study, we conducted follow-up of 2,845 patients diagnosed from 1998 to 2003 with 3,330 invasive primary melanomas centrally reviewed for TIL grade (absent, nonbrisk, or brisk). The odds of TIL grades associated with clinicopathologic features and survival by TIL grade were examined. Independent predictors (P < .05) for nonbrisk TIL grade were site, histologic subtype, and Breslow thickness, and for brisk TIL grade, they were age, site, Breslow thickness, and radial growth phase. Nonbrisk and brisk TIL grades were each associated with lower American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage compared with TIL absence (P(trend) < .001). Death as a result of melanoma was 30% less with nonbrisk TIL grade (hazard ratio [HR], 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.0) and 50% less with brisk TIL grade (HR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.9) relative to TIL absence, adjusted for age, sex, site, and AJCC tumor stage. At the population level, higher TIL grade of primary melanoma is associated with a lower risk of death as a result of melanoma independently of tumor characteristics currently used for AJCC tumor stage. We conclude that TIL grade deserves further prospective investigation to determine whether it should be included in future AJCC staging revisions.

Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocyte Grade in Primary Melanomas Is Independently Associated With Melanoma-Specific Survival in the Population-Based Genes, Environment and Melanoma Study

PubMed Central

Thomas, Nancy E.; Busam, Klaus J.; From, Lynn; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gruber, Stephen B.; Gallagher, Richard P.; Zanetti, Roberto; Rosso, Stefano; Dwyer, Terence; Venn, Alison; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Groben, Pamela A.; Hao, Honglin; Orlow, Irene; Reiner, Anne S.; Luo, Li; Paine, Susan; Ollila, David W.; Wilcox, Homer; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne

2013-01-01

Purpose Although most hospital-based studies suggest more favorable survival with tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) present in primary melanomas, it is uncertain whether TILs provide prognostic information beyond existing melanoma staging definitions. We addressed the issue in an international population-based study of patients with single and multiple primary melanomas. Patients and Methods On the basis of the Genes, Environment and Melanoma (GEM) study, we conducted follow-up of 2,845 patients diagnosed from 1998 to 2003 with 3,330 invasive primary melanomas centrally reviewed for TIL grade (absent, nonbrisk, or brisk). The odds of TIL grades associated with clinicopathologic features and survival by TIL grade were examined. Results Independent predictors (P < .05) for nonbrisk TIL grade were site, histologic subtype, and Breslow thickness, and for brisk TIL grade, they were age, site, Breslow thickness, and radial growth phase. Nonbrisk and brisk TIL grades were each associated with lower American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage compared with TIL absence (Ptrend < .001). Death as a result of melanoma was 30% less with nonbrisk TIL grade (hazard ratio [HR], 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.0) and 50% less with brisk TIL grade (HR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.9) relative to TIL absence, adjusted for age, sex, site, and AJCC tumor stage. Conclusion At the population level, higher TIL grade of primary melanoma is associated with a lower risk of death as a result of melanoma independently of tumor characteristics currently used for AJCC tumor stage. We conclude that TIL grade deserves further prospective investigation to determine whether it should be included in future AJCC staging revisions. PMID:24127443

Social marketing, stages of change, and public health smoking interventions.

PubMed

Diehr, Paula; Hannon, Peggy; Pizacani, Barbara; Forehand, Mark; Meischke, Hendrika; Curry, Susan; Martin, Diane P; Weaver, Marcia R; Harris, Jeffrey

2011-04-01

As a "thought experiment," the authors used a modified stages of change model for smoking to define homogeneous segments within various hypothetical populations. The authors then estimated the population effect of public health interventions that targeted the different segments. Under most assumptions, interventions that emphasized primary and secondary prevention, by targeting the Never Smoker, Maintenance, or Action segments, resulted in the highest nonsmoking life expectancy. This result is consistent with both social marketing and public health principles. Although the best thing for an individual smoker is to stop smoking, the greatest public health benefit is achieved by interventions that target nonsmokers.

75 FR 74073 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-30

... population program HexSim. Though still at preliminary draft stage, population response simulations from this portion of the modeling process are available for public review by request from our office. These simulations do not estimate what will occur in the future, but provide comparative information on potential...

Salmon Life Cycle Models Illuminate Population Consequences of Disparate Survival and Behavior Between Hatchery- and Wild-Origin Fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beakes, M.; Satterthwaite, W.; Petrik, C.; Hendrix, N.; Danner, E.; Lindley, S. T.

2016-02-01

In past decades there has been a heavy reliance on the production of hatchery-reared fish to supplement declining population numbers of Pacific salmon. In some cases, the benefits of hatchery supplementation have been negligible despite concerted long-term stocking efforts. The management and conservation of depressed salmon populations, via hatchery practices or otherwise, can be improved by expanding our understanding of the dissimilarities between hatchery and wild salmon and how each interacts with the environment. In this study we use a stage-structured salmon life-cycle model to explore the population consequences of disparate survival and behavior between hatchery and wild-origin fall-run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley. We couple empirically-based statistical functions with deterministic theoretical models to identify how environmental conditions (e.g., water temperature, flow) and habitat drive the survival and abundance of both hatchery and wild salmon as they integrate across riverscapes and cross marine and freshwater ecosystem boundaries during their life cycle. Results from this study suggest that hatchery practices can lead to dissimilar interactions between hatchery and wild salmon and the environmental conditions they experience. As such, the population dynamics of fall-run Chinook Salmon in the California Central Valley are partly dependent on the composition of individuals that make up their populations. In total, this study improves out ability to conserve imperiled salmonids by identifying mechanistic linkages between the natal origin of salmon, survival and behavior, and the environment at spatiotemporal scales relevant to salmon populations and fisheries management.

Geographic Variations of Colorectal and Breast Cancer Late-Stage Diagnosis and the Effects of Neighborhood-Level Factors.

PubMed

Lin, Yan; Wimberly, Michael C

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the geographic variations of late-stage diagnosis in colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer as well as to investigate the effects of 3 neighborhood-level factors-socioeconomic deprivation, urban/rural residence, and spatial accessibility to health care-on the late-stage risks. This study used population-based South Dakota cancer registry data from 2001 to 2012. A total of 4,878 CRC cases and 6,418 breast cancer cases were included in the analyses. Two-level logistic regression models were used to analyze the risk of late-stage CRC and breast cancer. For CRC, there was a small geographic variation across census tracts in late-stage diagnosis, and residing in isolated small rural areas was significantly associated with late-stage risk. However, this association became nonsignificant after adjusting for census-tract level socioeconomic deprivation. Socioeconomic deprivation was an independent predictor of CRC late-stage risk, and it explained the elevated risk among American Indians. No relationship was found between spatial accessibility and CRC late-stage risk. For breast cancer, no geographic variation in the late-stage diagnosis was observed across census tracts, and none of the 3 neighborhood-level factors was significantly associated with late-stage risk. Results suggested that socioeconomic deprivation, rather than spatial accessibility, contributed to CRC late-stage risks in South Dakota as a rural state. CRC intervention programs could be developed to target isolated small rural areas, socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, as well as American Indians residing in these areas. © 2016 National Rural Health Association.

Projecting the success of plant restoration with population viability analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, T.J.; Bowles, M.L.; McEachern, A.K.; Brigham, C.A.; Schwartz, M.W.

2003-01-01

Conserving viable populations of plant species requires that they have high probabilities of long-term persistence within natural habitats, such as a chance of extinction in 100 years of less than 5% (Menges 1991, 1998; Brown 1994; Pavlik 1994; Chap. 1, this Vol.). For endangered and threatened species that have been severely reduces in range and whose habitats have been fragmented, important species conservation strategies may include augmenting existing populations or restoring new viable populations (Bowles and Whelan 1994; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Restoration objectives may include increasing population numbers to reduce extinction probability, deterministic manipulations to develop a staged cohort structure, or more complex restoration of a desired genetic structure to allow outcrossing or increase effective population size (DeMauro 1993, 1994; Bowles et al. 1993, 1998; Pavlik 1994; Knapp and Dyer 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). These efforts may require translocation of propagules from existing (in situ) populations, or from ex situ botanic gardens or seed storage facilities (Falk et al. 1996; Guerrant and Pavlik 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Population viability analysis (PVA) can provide a critical foundation for plant restoration, as it models demographic projections used to evaluate the probability of population persistence and links plant life history with restoration strategies. It is unknown how well artificially created populations will meet demographic modeling requirements (e.g., due to artificial cohort transitions) and few, if any, PVAs have been applied to restorations. To guide application of PVA to restored populations and to illustrate potential difficulties, we examine effects of planting different life stages, model initial population sizes needed to achieve population viability, and compare demographic characteristics between natural and restored populations. We develop and compare plant population restoration viability analysis (PRVA) case studies of two plant species listed in the USA for which federal recovery planning calls for population restoration: Cirsium pitcheri, a short-lived semelparous herb, and Asclepias meadii, a long-lived iteroparous herb.

High-risk behaviors while driving: A population-based study from Iran.

PubMed

Khadem-Rezaiyan, Majid; Moallem, Seyed Reza; Vakili, Veda

2017-04-03

Traffic injuries are becoming one of the most important challenges of public health systems. Because these injuries are mostly preventable, the aim of this study is to evaluate the four main high-risk behaviors while driving. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a random sample from the population of Mashhad, Iran, in 2014. A checklist and a previously validated questionnaire for the transtheoretical stages of change model (TTM) were used for data collection. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 11.5 software with P <.05 statistically significant. Totally 431 individuals were included with a mean age of 30 ± 11.3 years. Forty-three percent (183) were male. The TTM model revealed that participants were mostly in pre-actional phases regarding not using a cell phone while driving (80%), fastening the driver's seat belt (66%), front seat belt (68%), and rear seat belt (85%) The penalty was a protective factor only for using cellphone (odd ratio [OR] = 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68-0.98). Lower education (OR = 0.12, 95% CI, 0.01-0.94) and male gender (OR = 0.35, 95% CI, 0.14-0.83) were indicative of lower rates of fastening the front and rear seat belts. The stages of change model among study participants is a proper reflection of the effectiveness of the current policies. More serious actions regarding these high-risk behaviors should be considered in legislation.

A Four-Stage Hybrid Model for Hydrological Time Series Forecasting

PubMed Central

Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

2014-01-01

Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of ‘denoising, decomposition and ensemble’. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models. PMID:25111782

A four-stage hybrid model for hydrological time series forecasting.

PubMed

Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

2014-01-01

Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of 'denoising, decomposition and ensemble'. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models.

Rationale, design and methodology for the Navajo Health and Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

White, L L; Goldberg, H I; Gilbert, T J; Ballew, C; Mendlein, J M; Peter, D G; Percy, C A; Mokdad, A H

1997-10-01

As recently as 1990, there was no reservation-wide, population-based health status information about Navajo Indians. To remedy this shortcoming, the Navajo Health and Nutrition Survey was conducted from 1991 to 1992 to assess the health and nutritional status of Navajo Reservation residents using a population-based sample. Using a three-stage design, a representative sample of reservation households was selected for inclusion. All members of selected households 12 y of age and older were invited to participate. A total of 985 people in 459 households participated in the study. Survey protocols were modeled on those of previous national surveys and included a standard blood chemistry profile, complete blood count, oral glucose tolerance test, blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, a single 24-h dietary recall and a questionnaire on health behaviors. The findings from this survey, reported in the accompanying papers, inform efforts to prevent and control chronic disease among the Navajo. Lessons learned from this survey may be of interest to those conducting similar surveys in other American Indian and Alaska Native populations.

A Two-Stage Approach to Missing Data: Theory and Application to Auxiliary Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria; Bentler, Peter M.

2009-01-01

A well-known ad-hoc approach to conducting structural equation modeling with missing data is to obtain a saturated maximum likelihood (ML) estimate of the population covariance matrix and then to use this estimate in the complete data ML fitting function to obtain parameter estimates. This 2-stage (TS) approach is appealing because it minimizes a…

Examining the Relationship between Pre-Malignant Breast Lesions, Carcinogenesis and Tumor Evolution in the Mammary Epithelium Using an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Chapa, Joaquin; An, Gary; Kulkarni, Swati A

2016-01-01

Breast cancer, the product of numerous rare mutational events that occur over an extended time period, presents numerous challenges to investigators interested in studying the transformation from normal breast epithelium to malignancy using traditional laboratory methods, particularly with respect to characterizing transitional and pre-malignant states. Dynamic computational modeling can provide insight into these pathophysiological dynamics, and as such we use a previously validated agent-based computational model of the mammary epithelium (the DEABM) to investigate the probabilistic mechanisms by which normal populations of ductal cells could transform into states replicating features of both pre-malignant breast lesions and a diverse set of breast cancer subtypes. The DEABM consists of simulated cellular populations governed by algorithms based on accepted and previously published cellular mechanisms. Cells respond to hormones, undergo mitosis, apoptosis and cellular differentiation. Heritable mutations to 12 genes prominently implicated in breast cancer are acquired via a probabilistic mechanism. 3000 simulations of the 40-year period of menstrual cycling were run in wild-type (WT) and BRCA1-mutated groups. Simulations were analyzed by development of hyperplastic states, incidence of malignancy, hormone receptor and HER-2 status, frequency of mutation to particular genes, and whether mutations were early events in carcinogenesis. Cancer incidence in WT (2.6%) and BRCA1-mutated (45.9%) populations closely matched published epidemiologic rates. Hormone receptor expression profiles in both WT and BRCA groups also closely matched epidemiologic data. Hyperplastic populations carried more mutations than normal populations and mutations were similar to early mutations found in ER+ tumors (telomerase, E-cadherin, TGFB, RUNX3, p < .01). ER- tumors carried significantly more mutations and carried more early mutations in BRCA1, c-MYC and genes associated with epithelial-mesenchymal transition. The DEABM generates diverse tumors that express tumor markers consistent with epidemiologic data. The DEABM also generates non-invasive, hyperplastic populations, analogous to atypia or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), via mutations to genes known to be present in hyperplastic lesions and as early mutations in breast cancers. The results demonstrate that agent-based models are well-suited to studying tumor evolution through stages of carcinogenesis and have the potential to be used to develop prevention and treatment strategies.

Spatial requirements of different life-stages of the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) from a distinct population segment in the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamont, Margaret M.; Putman, Nathan F.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Hart, Kristen M.

2015-01-01

Many marine species have complex life histories that involve disparate developmental, foraging and reproductive habitats and a holistic assessment of the spatial requirements for different life stages is a challenge that greatly complicates their management. Here, we combined data from oceanographic modeling, nesting surveys, and satellite tracking to examine the spatial requirements of different life stages of Loggerhead Turtles (Caretta caretta) from a distinct population segment in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our findings indicate that after emerging from nesting beaches in Alabama and Northwest Florida, hatchlings disperse widely and the proportion of turtles following a given route varies substantially through time, with the majority (mean of 74.4%) projected to leave the Gulf of Mexico. Adult females use neritic habitat throughout the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico both during the inter-nesting phase and as post-nesting foraging areas. Movements and habitat use of juveniles and adult males represent a large gap in our knowledge, but given the hatchling dispersal predictions and tracks of post-nesting females it is likely that some Loggerhead Turtles remain in the Gulf of Mexico throughout their life. More than two-thirds of the Gulf provides potential habitat for at least one life-stage of Loggerhead Turtles. These results demonstrate the importance of the Gulf of Mexico to this Distinct Population Segment of Loggerhead Turtles. It also highlights the benefits of undertaking comprehensive studies of multiple life stages simultaneously: loss of individual habitats have the potential to affect several life stages thereby having long-term consequences to population recovery.

Treatment Variation of Sequential versus Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients in the Netherlands and Belgium.

PubMed

Walraven, I; Damhuis, R A; Ten Berge, M G; Rosskamp, M; van Eycken, L; de Ruysscher, D; Belderbos, J S A

2017-11-01

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is considered the standard treatment regimen in non-surgical locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients and sequential chemoradiotherapy (SCRT) is recommended in patients who are unfit to receive CCRT or when the treatment volume is considered too large. In this study, we investigated the proportion of CCRT/SCRT in the Netherlands and Belgium. Furthermore, patient and disease characteristics associated with SCRT were assessed. An observational study was carried out with data from three independent national registries: the Belgian Cancer Registry (BCR), the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) and the Dutch Lung Cancer Audit-Radiotherapy (DLCA-R). Differences in patient and disease characteristics between CCRT and SCRT were tested with unpaired t-tests (for continuous variables) and with chi-square tests (for categorical variables). A prognostic model was constructed to determine patient and disease parameters predictive for the choice of SCRT. This study included 350 patients from the BCR, 780 patients from the NCR and 428 patients from the DLCA-R. More than half of the stage III NSCLC patients in the Netherlands (55%) and in Belgium more than a third (35%) were treated with CCRT. In both the Dutch and Belgian population, higher age and more advanced N-stage were significantly associated with SCRT. Performance score, pulmonary function, comorbidities and tumour volume were not associated with SCRT. In this observational population-based study, a large treatment variation in non-surgical stage III NSCLC patients was observed between and within the Netherlands and Belgium. Higher age and N-stage were significantly associated with the choice for SCRT. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stages of change and stuttering: a preliminary view.

PubMed

Floyd, Jennifer; Zebrowski, Patricia M; Flamme, Gregory A

2007-01-01

As a way to better understand the process of change that occurs in stuttering, Craig [Craig, A. (1998). Relapse following treatment for stuttering: a critical review and correlative data. Journal of Fluency Disorders, 23, 1-30] compared the behavioral changes that people who stutter often experience with and without treatment to those that have been observed for certain (non)addictive behavior disorders such as smoking, overeating, phobia and anxiety disorder. The process underlying these behavioral changes has been described by the transtheoretical or "stages of change" model, which is a model of behavior change that can illuminate "where" a person is in the process of change, and how this may relate to the outcome of either treatment or self-change attempts [Prochaska, J. O., & DiClemente, C. C. (1986). The transtheoretical approach. In J. C. Norcross (Ed.), Handbook of eclectic psychotherapy. New York: Brunner/Mazel]. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the extent to which the responses of adults who stutter on a modified Stages of Change Questionnaire yield interrelations among questionnaire items that are consistent with a stage-based interpretation. Results of both confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses indicated that while the modified questionnaire was a relatively good fit for participant responses, the structure derived from the exploratory analysis provided a significantly better fit to the observed data. Results suggest that a questionnaire incorporating items that better reflect the unique behavioral, cognitive and affective variables that characterize stuttering may better discriminate stages of change in people who stutter as they move through therapy, or are engaged in self-directed change. After reading this paper, the learner will be able to: (1) describe the transtheoretical or "stages of change" model; (2) describe the various processes that are associated with different stages of change; (3) summarize research findings in stages of change as they apply to a variety of clinical populations; (4) discuss the applicability of the findings from the present study to stuttering treatment, and (5) relate conventional strategies and techniques used in stuttering therapy to different stages in the process of change.

Population based screening for chronic kidney disease: cost effectiveness study.

PubMed

Manns, Braden; Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Tonelli, Marcello; Au, Flora; Chiasson, T Carter; Dong, James; Klarenbach, Scott

2010-11-08

To determine the cost effectiveness of one-off population based screening for chronic kidney disease based on estimated glomerular filtration rate. Cost utility analysis of screening with estimated glomerular filtration rate alone compared with no screening (with allowance for incidental finding of cases of chronic kidney disease). Analyses were stratified by age, diabetes, and the presence or absence of proteinuria. Scenario and sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were performed. Costs were estimated in all adults and in subgroups defined by age, diabetes, and hypertension. Publicly funded Canadian healthcare system. Large population based laboratory cohort used to estimate mortality rates and incidence of end stage renal disease for patients with chronic kidney disease over a five year follow-up period. Patients had not previously undergone assessment of glomerular filtration rate. Lifetime costs, end stage renal disease, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost per QALY gained. Compared with no screening, population based screening for chronic kidney disease was associated with an incremental cost of $C463 (Canadian dollars in 2009; equivalent to about £275, €308, US $382) and a gain of 0.0044 QALYs per patient overall, representing a cost per QALY gained of $C104 900. In a cohort of 100 000 people, screening for chronic kidney disease would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 675 to 657. In subgroups of people with and without diabetes, the cost per QALY gained was $C22 600 and $C572 000, respectively. In a cohort of 100 000 people with diabetes, screening would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 1796 to 1741. In people without diabetes with and without hypertension, the cost per QALY gained was $C334 000 and $C1 411 100, respectively. Population based screening for chronic kidney disease with assessment of estimated glomerular filtration rate is not cost effective overall or in subgroups of people with hypertension or older people. Targeted screening of people with diabetes is associated with a cost per QALY that is similar to that accepted in other interventions funded by public healthcare systems.

Juvenile honest food solicitation and parental investment as a life history strategy: A kin demographic selection model.

PubMed

Garay, József; Csiszár, Villő; Móri, Tamás F; Szilágyi, András; Varga, Zoltán; Számadó, Szabolcs

2018-01-01

Parent-offspring communication remains an unresolved challenge for biologist. The difficulty of the challenge comes from the fact that it is a multifaceted problem with connections to life-history evolution, parent-offspring conflict, kin selection and signalling. Previous efforts mainly focused on modelling resource allocation at the expense of the dynamic interaction during a reproductive season. Here we present a two-stage model of begging where the first stage models the interaction between nestlings and parents within a nest and the second stage models the life-history trade-offs. We show in an asexual population that honest begging results in decreased variance of collected food between siblings, which leads to mean number of surviving offspring. Thus, honest begging can be seen as a special bet-hedging against informational uncertainty, which not just decreases the variance of fitness but also increases the arithmetic mean.

Juvenile honest food solicitation and parental investment as a life history strategy: A kin demographic selection model

PubMed Central

Szilágyi, András; Varga, Zoltán

2018-01-01

Parent-offspring communication remains an unresolved challenge for biologist. The difficulty of the challenge comes from the fact that it is a multifaceted problem with connections to life-history evolution, parent-offspring conflict, kin selection and signalling. Previous efforts mainly focused on modelling resource allocation at the expense of the dynamic interaction during a reproductive season. Here we present a two-stage model of begging where the first stage models the interaction between nestlings and parents within a nest and the second stage models the life-history trade-offs. We show in an asexual population that honest begging results in decreased variance of collected food between siblings, which leads to mean number of surviving offspring. Thus, honest begging can be seen as a special bet-hedging against informational uncertainty, which not just decreases the variance of fitness but also increases the arithmetic mean. PMID:29494630

Population pharmacokinetics and dosing regimen design of milrinone in preterm infants

PubMed Central

Paradisis, Mary; Jiang, Xuemin; McLachlan, Andrew J; Evans, Nick; Kluckow, Martin; Osborn, David

2007-01-01

Aims To define the pharmacokinetics of milrinone in very preterm infants and determine an optimal dose regimen to prevent low systemic blood flow in the first 12 h after birth. Methods A prospective open‐labelled, dose‐escalation pharmacokinetic study was undertaken in two stages. In stage one, infants received milrinone at 0.25 μg/kg/min (n = 8) and 0.5 μg/kg/min (n = 11) infused from 3 to 24 h of age. Infants contributed 4–5 blood samples for concentration–time data which were analysed using a population modelling approach. A simulation study was used to explore the optimal dosing regimen to achieve target milrinone concentrations (180–300 ng/ml). This milrinone regimen was evaluated in stage two (n = 10). Results Infants (n = 29) born before 29 weeks gestation were enrolled. Milrinone pharmacokinetics were described using a one‐compartment model with first‐order elimination rate, with a population mean clearance (CV%) of 35 ml/h (24%) and volume of distribution of 512 ml (21%) and estimated half‐life of 10 h. The 0.25 and 0.5 μg/kg/min dosage regimens did not achieve optimal milrinone concentration‐time profiles to prevent early low systemic blood flow. Simulation studies predicted a loading infusion (0.75 μg/kg/min for 3 h) followed by maintenance infusion (0.2 μg/kg/min until 18 h of age) would provide an optimal milrinone concentration profile. This was confirmed in stage two of the study. Conclusion Population pharmacokinetic modelling in the preterm infant has established an optimal dose regimen for milrinone that increases the likelihood of achieving therapeutic aims and highlights the importance of pharmacokinetic studies in neonatal clinical pharmacology. PMID:16690639

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease and comorbidities in isolated African descent communities (PREVRENAL): methodological design of a cohort study.

PubMed

Salgado-Filho, Natalino; Lages, Joyce Santos; Brito, Dyego José; Salgado, João Victor; Silva, Gyl Eanes; Santos, Alcione Miranda; Monteiro-Júnior, Francisco Chagas; Santos, Elisangela Milhomen; Silva, Antônio Augusto; Araújo, Denizar Vianna; Sesso, Ricardo Castro

2018-02-26

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is considered a serious public health problem, both in Brazil and worldwide, with an increasing number of cases observed inrecent years. Especially, CKD has been reported to be highly prevalent in those of African descent. However, Brazil lacks data from early-stage CKD population studies, and the prevalence of CKD is unknown for both the overall and African descent populations. Hence, the present study aimsto estimate the prevalence of early-stage CKD and its associated risk factors in African-Brazilians from isolated African-descent communities. Herein, the detailed methodology design of the study is described. This population-based, prospective, longitudinal, cohort study (PREVRENAL) is performed in three stages: first, clinical, nutritional, and anthropometric evaluations; measurements of serum and urinary markers; and examinations of comorbiditieswere performed. Second, repeated examinations of individuals with CKD, systemic arterial hypertension, and/or diabetes mellitus; image screening; and cardiac risk assessment were performed. Third, long-term monitoring of all selected individuals will be conducted (ongoing). Using probability sampling, 1539 individuals from 32 communities were selected. CKD was defined asaglomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≤60 mL/min/1.73m 2 and albuminuria > 30 mg/day. This study proposes to identify and monitor individuals with and without reduced GFR and high albuminuria in isolated populations of African descendants in Brazil. As there are currently no specific recommendations for detecting CKD in African descendants, four equations for estimating the GFR based on serum creatinine and cystatin C were used and will be retrospectively compared. The present report describes the characteristics of the target population, selection of individuals, and detection of a population at risk, along with the imaging, clinical, and laboratory methodologies used. The first and second stages have been concluded and the results will be published in the near future. The subsequent (third) stage is the long-term, continuous monitoring of individuals diagnosed with renal abnormalities or with CKD risk factors. The entire study population will be re-evaluated five years after the study initiation. The expectation is to obtain information about CKD evolution among this population, including the progression rate, complication development, and cardiovascular events.

Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir.

PubMed

Endo, Noriko; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2018-01-25

Wind conditions, as well as other environmental conditions, are likely to influence malaria transmission through the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes, especially around water-resource reservoirs. Wind-induced waves in a reservoir impose mortality on aquatic-stage mosquitoes. Mosquitoes' host-seeking activity is also influenced by wind through dispersion of [Formula: see text]. However, no malaria transmission model exists to date that simulated those impacts of wind mechanistically. A modelling framework for simulating the three important effects of wind on the behaviours of mosquito is developed: attraction of adult mosquitoes through dispersion of [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] attraction), advection of adult mosquitoes (advection), and aquatic-stage mortality due to wind-induced surface waves (waves). The framework was incorporated in a mechanistic malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS. The performance of the extended simulator was compared with the observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes at a village adjacent to the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia. The observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes were reproduced with some reasonable accuracy in HYDREMATS that includes the representation of the wind effects. HYDREMATS without the wind model failed to do so. Offshore wind explained the increase in Anopheles population that cannot be expected from other environmental conditions alone. Around large water bodies such as reservoirs, the role of wind in the dynamics of Anopheles population, hence in malaria transmission, can be significant. Modelling the impacts of wind on the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes aids in reproducing the seasonality of malaria transmission and in estimation of the risk of malaria around reservoirs.

The Development of Ciprofloxacin Resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa Involves Multiple Response Stages and Multiple Proteins ▿ † ‡

PubMed Central

Su, Hsun-Cheng; Ramkissoon, Kevin; Doolittle, Janet; Clark, Martha; Khatun, Jainab; Secrest, Ashley; Wolfgang, Matthew C.; Giddings, Morgan C.

2010-01-01

Microbes have developed resistance to nearly every antibiotic, yet the steps leading to drug resistance remain unclear. Here we report a multistage process by which Pseudomonas aeruginosa acquires drug resistance following exposure to ciprofloxacin at levels ranging from 0.5× to 8× the initial MIC. In stage I, susceptible cells are killed en masse by the exposure. In stage II, a small, slow to nongrowing population survives antibiotic exposure that does not exhibit significantly increased resistance according to the MIC measure. In stage III, exhibited at 0.5× to 4× the MIC, a growing population emerges to reconstitute the population, and these cells display heritable increases in drug resistance of up to 50 times the original level. We studied the stage III cells by proteomic methods to uncover differences in the regulatory pathways that are involved in this phenotype, revealing upregulation of phosphorylation on two proteins, succinate-semialdehyde dehydrogenase (SSADH) and methylmalonate-semialdehyde dehydrogenase (MMSADH), and also revealing upregulation of a highly conserved protein of unknown function. Transposon disruption in the encoding genes for each of these targets substantially dampened the ability of cells to develop the stage III phenotype. Considering these results in combination with computational models of resistance and genomic sequencing results, we postulate that stage III heritable resistance develops from a combination of both genomic mutations and modulation of one or more preexisting cellular pathways. PMID:20696867

Analysis of Stage and Clinical/Prognostic Factors for Lung Cancer from SEER Registries: AJCC Staging and Collaborative Stage Data Collection System

PubMed Central

Chen, Vivien W.; Ruiz, Bernardo A.; Hsieh, Mei-Chin; Wu, Xiao-Cheng; Ries, Lynn; Lewis, Denise R.

2014-01-01

Introduction The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition introduced major changes in the staging of lung cancer, including Tumor (T), Node (N), Metastasis (M) (TNM) system and new stage/prognostic site-specific factors (SSFs), collected under the Collaborative Stage Version 2 (CSv2) Data Collection System. The intent was to improve the stage precision which could guide treatment options and ultimately lead to better survival. This report examines stage trends, the change in stage distributions from the AJCC 6th to the 7th edition, and findings of the prognostic SSFs for 2010 lung cancer cases. Methods Data were from the November 2012 submission of 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program population-based registries. A total of 344 797 cases of lung cancer, diagnosed in 2004–2010, were analyzed. Results The percentages of small tumors and early stage lung cancer cases increased from 2004 to 2010. The AJCC 7th edition, implemented for 2010 diagnosis year, subclassified tumor size and reclassified multiple tumor nodules, pleural effusions, and involvement of tumors in the contralateral lung, resulting in a slight decrease in stage IB and stage IIIB and a small increase in stage IIA and stage IV. Overall about 80% of cases remained the same stage group in AJCC 6th and 7th editions. About 21% of lung cancer patients had separate tumor nodules in the ipsilateral (same) lung, and 23% of the surgically resected patients had visceral pleural invasion, both adverse prognostic factors. Conclusion It is feasible for high quality population-based registries such as the SEER Program to collect more refined staging and prognostic SSFs that allows better categorization of lung cancer patients with different clinical outcomes and to assess their survival. PMID:25412390

QUANTIFYING AGGREGATE CHLORPYRIFOS EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO CHILDREN USING A PHYSICALLY-BASED TWO-STAGE MONTE CARLO PROBABILISTIC MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

To help address the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996, a physically-based, two-stage Monte Carlo probabilistic model has been developed to quantify and analyze aggregate exposure and dose to pesticides via multiple routes and pathways. To illustrate model capabilities and ide...

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.; Jak, Suzanne

2016-01-01

Meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) involves fitting models to a common population correlation matrix that is estimated on the basis of correlation coefficients that are reported by a number of independent studies. MASEM typically consist of two stages. The method that has been found to perform best in terms of statistical…

Automatic stage identification of Drosophila egg chamber based on DAPI images

PubMed Central

Jia, Dongyu; Xu, Qiuping; Xie, Qian; Mio, Washington; Deng, Wu-Min

2016-01-01

The Drosophila egg chamber, whose development is divided into 14 stages, is a well-established model for developmental biology. However, visual stage determination can be a tedious, subjective and time-consuming task prone to errors. Our study presents an objective, reliable and repeatable automated method for quantifying cell features and classifying egg chamber stages based on DAPI images. The proposed approach is composed of two steps: 1) a feature extraction step and 2) a statistical modeling step. The egg chamber features used are egg chamber size, oocyte size, egg chamber ratio and distribution of follicle cells. Methods for determining the on-site of the polytene stage and centripetal migration are also discussed. The statistical model uses linear and ordinal regression to explore the stage-feature relationships and classify egg chamber stages. Combined with machine learning, our method has great potential to enable discovery of hidden developmental mechanisms. PMID:26732176

A temperature-dependent physiologically based model for the invasive apple snail Pomacea canaliculata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilioli, Gianni; Pasquali, Sara; Martín, Pablo R.; Carlsson, Nils; Mariani, Luigi

2017-11-01

In order to set priorities in management of costly and ecosystem-damaging species, policymakers and managers need accurate predictions not only about where a specific invader may establish but also about its potential abundance at different geographical scales. This is because density or biomass per unit area of an invasive species is a key predictor of the magnitude of environmental and economic impact in the invaded habitat. Here, we present a physiologically based demographic model describing and explaining the population dynamics of a widespread freshwater invader, the golden apple snail Pomacea canaliculata, which is causing severe environmental and economic impacts in invaded wetlands and rice fields in Southeastern Asia and has also been introduced to North America and Europe . The model is based on bio-demographic functions for mortality, development and fecundity rates that are driven by water temperature for the aquatic stages (juveniles and adults) and by air temperature for the aerial egg masses. Our model has been validated against data on the current distribution in South America and Japan, and produced consistent and realistic patterns of reproduction, growth, maturation and mortality under different scenarios in accordance to what is known from real P. canaliculata populations in different regions and climates. The model further shows that P. canaliculata will use two different reproductive strategies (semelparity and iteroparity) within the potential area of establishment, a plasticity that may explain the high invasiveness of this species across a wide range of habitats with different climates. Our results also suggest that densities, and thus the magnitude of environmental and agricultural damage, will be largely different in locations with distinct climatic regimes within the potential area of establishment. We suggest that physiologically based demographic modelling of invasive species will become a valuable tool for invasive species managers.

The obesity paradox and incident cardiovascular disease: A population-based study.

PubMed

Chang, Virginia W; Langa, Kenneth M; Weir, David; Iwashyna, Theodore J

2017-01-01

Prior work suggests that obesity may confer a survival advantage among persons with cardiovascular disease (CVD). This obesity "paradox" is frequently studied in the context of prevalent disease, a stage in the disease process when confounding from illness-related weight loss and selective survival are especially problematic. Our objective was to examine the association of obesity with mortality among persons with incident CVD, where biases are potentially reduced, and to compare these findings with those based on prevalent disease. We used data from the Health and Retirement Study, an ongoing, nationally representative longitudinal survey of U.S. adults age 50 years and older initiated in 1992 and linked to Medicare claims. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between weight status and mortality among persons with specific CVD diagnoses. CVD diagnoses were established by self-reported survey data as well as Medicare claims. Prevalent disease models used concurrent weight status, and incident disease models used pre-diagnosis weight status. We examined myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, and ischemic heart disease. A strong and significant obesity paradox was consistently observed in prevalent disease models (hazard of death 18-36% lower for obese class I relative to normal weight), replicating prior findings. However, in incident disease models of the same conditions in the same dataset, there was no evidence of this survival benefit. Findings from models using survey- vs. claims-based diagnoses were largely consistent. We observed an obesity paradox in prevalent CVD, replicating prior findings in a population-based sample with longer-term follow-up. In incident CVD, however, we did not find evidence of a survival advantage for obesity. Our findings do not offer support for reevaluating clinical and public health guidelines in pursuit of a potential obesity paradox.

18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer: Evidence-based recommendations in initial staging.

PubMed

Caresia Aroztegui, Ana Paula; García Vicente, Ana María; Alvarez Ruiz, Soledad; Delgado Bolton, Roberto Carlos; Orcajo Rincon, Javier; Garcia Garzon, Jose Ramon; de Arcocha Torres, Maria; Garcia-Velloso, Maria Jose

2017-10-01

Current guidelines do not systematically recommend 18F-FDG PET/CT for breast cancer staging; and the recommendations and level of evidence supporting its use in different groups of patients vary among guidelines. This review summarizes the evidence about the role of 18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer staging and the therapeutic and prognostic impact accumulated in the last decade. Other related aspects, such as the association of metabolic information with biology and prognosis are considered and evidence-based recommendations for the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer staging are offered. We systematically searched MEDLINE for articles reporting studies with at least 30 patients related to clinical questions following the Problem/Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome framework. We critically reviewed the selected articles and elaborated evidence tables structuring the summarized information into methodology, results, and limitations. The level of evidence and the grades of recommendation for the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT in different contexts are summarized. Level III evidence supports the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT for initial staging in patients with recently diagnosed breast cancer; the diagnostic and therapeutic impact of the 18F-FDG PET/CT findings is sufficient for a weak recommendation in this population. In patients with locally advanced breast cancer, level II evidence supports the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT for initial staging; the diagnostic and therapeutic impact of the 18F-FDG PET/CT findings is sufficient for a strong recommendation in this population. In patients with recently diagnosed breast cancer, the metabolic information from baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT is associated with tumor biology and has prognostic implications, supported by level II evidence. In conclusion, 18F-FDG PET/CT is not recommended for staging all patients with early breast cancer, although evidence of improved regional and systemic staging supports its use in locally advanced breast cancer. Baseline tumor glycolytic activity is associated with tumor biology and prognosis.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

PubMed Central

Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales. PMID:24634726

Using Systems Science to Inform Population Health Strategies in Local Health Departments: A Case Study in San Antonio, Texas.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Padrón, Norma A; Mangla, Anil T; Russo, Pamela G; Schlenker, Thomas; Pagán, José A

Because of state and federal health care reform, local health departments play an increasingly prominent role leading and coordinating disease prevention programs in the United States. This case study shows how a local health department working in chronic disease prevention and management can use systems science and evidence-based decision making to inform program selection, implementation, and assessment; enhance engagement with local health systems and organizations; and possibly optimize health care delivery and population health. The authors built a systems-science agent-based simulation model of diabetes progression for the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District, a local health department, to simulate health and cost outcomes for the population of San Antonio for a 20-year period (2015-2034) using 2 scenarios: 1 in which hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) values for a population were similar to the current distribution of values in San Antonio, and the other with a hypothetical 1-percentage-point reduction in HbA1c values. They projected that a 1-percentage-point reduction in HbA1c would lead to a decrease in the 20-year prevalence of end-stage renal disease from 1.7% to 0.9%, lower extremity amputation from 4.6% to 2.9%, blindness from 15.1% to 10.7%, myocardial infarction from 23.8% to 17.9%, and stroke from 9.8% to 7.2%. They estimated annual direct medical cost savings (in 2015 US dollars) from reducing HbA1c by 1 percentage point ranging from $6842 (myocardial infarction) to $39 800 (end-stage renal disease) for each averted case of diabetes complications. Local health departments could benefit from the use of systems science and evidence-based decision making to estimate public health program effectiveness and costs, calculate return on investment, and develop a business case for adopting programs.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Spore Killers

PubMed Central

Nauta, M. J.; Hoekstra, R. F.

1993-01-01

Spore killing in ascomycetes is a special form of segregation distortion. When a strain with the Killer genotype is crossed to a Sensitive type, spore killing is expressed by asci with only half the number of ascospores as usual, all surviving ascospores being of the Killer type. Using population genetic modeling, this paper explores conditions for invasion of Spore killers and for polymorphism of Killers, Sensitives and Resistants (which neither kill, nor get killed), as found in natural populations. The models show that a population with only Killers and Sensitives can never be stable. The invasion of Killers and stable polymorphism only occur if Killers have some additional advantage during the process of spore killing. This may be due to the effects of local sib competition or some kind of ``heterozygous'' advantage in the stage of ascospore formation or in the short diploid stage of the life cycle. This form of segregation distortion appears to be essentially different from other, well-investigated forms, and more field data are needed for a better understanding of spore killing. PMID:8293989

A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, Adam; Pearl, Christopher; Adams, Michael J.; Peterson, James T.

2017-01-01

Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010–2011 to 0.86 in 2012–2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but related, data sets has an advantage of being able to estimate complex ecological relationships across multiple life stages, offering a modeling framework that accommodates uncertainty, enforces parsimony, and ensures all model parameters can be confronted with monitoring data.

A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions.

PubMed

Duarte, Adam; Pearl, Christopher A; Adams, Michael J; Peterson, James T

2017-09-01

Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010-2011 to 0.86 in 2012-2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but related, data sets has an advantage of being able to estimate complex ecological relationships across multiple life stages, offering a modeling framework that accommodates uncertainty, enforces parsimony, and ensures all model parameters can be confronted with monitoring data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling Global Relationships Between Climate and Scyphozoan Jellyfish Blooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henschke, N.; Stock, C. A.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2016-02-01

Scyphozoan jellyfish have a complex lifecycle that involves alternation between a sexually reproducing medusa stage and a benthic, asexually reproducing polyp. Elevated jellyfish concentrations, or blooms, are a natural feature of healthy pelagic ecosystems, but it has been suggested that the frequency and magnitude of these blooms may increase globally as a result of anthropogenic changes such as overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. It has been difficult to substantiate this hypothesis, however, due to insufficient long-term datasets and limited life cycle data, particularly for the polyp stage. Polyp mortality is considered to be more important than medusa mortality for determining the biomass of the medusa population. We have developed a population model that incorporates both benthic and pelagic life history stages to better understand controls on jellyfish distributions their response to climate variability and change. The model tracks cohorts of both life stages with temperature and/or consumption driven relationships for growth, reproduction and mortality. The model was forced with a time-series of temperature and zooplankton biomass from three locations: Southampton Estuary, the Gulf of Mexico and the Black Sea and compared against co-located long-term ( 20 years) near monthly samples of jellyfish biomass. The model reproduces seasonal cycles and average medusa biomass at each location. Medusa biomass is positively correlated with increased temperature and food availability, and was more sensitive to changes in polyp mortality than medusa mortality - confirming the importance of the benthic polyp generation in regulating jellyfish bloom size. We are presently studying drivers of inter-annual variability at these sites before integration with global simulations.

Application of the transtheoretical model: exercise behavior in Korean adults with metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Kim, Chun-Ja; Kim, Bom-Taeck; Chae, Sun-Mi

2010-01-01

Although regular exercise has been recommended to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with metabolic syndrome, little information is available about psychobehavioral strategies in this population. The purpose of this study was to identify the stages, processes of change, decisional balance, and self-efficacy of exercise behavior and to determine the significant predictors explaining regular exercise behavior in adults with metabolic syndrome. This descriptive, cross-sectional survey design enrolled a convenience sample of 210 people with metabolic syndrome at a university hospital in South Korea. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze demographic characteristics, metabolic syndrome risk factors, and transtheoretical model-related variables. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the most important predictors of regular exercise stages. Action and maintenance stages comprised 51.9% of regular exercise stages, whereas 48.1% of non-regular exercise stages were precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation stages. Adults with regular exercise stages displayed increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, were more likely to use consciousness raising, self-reevaluation, and self-liberation strategies, and were less likely to evaluate the merits/disadvantages of exercise, compared with those in non-regular exercise stages. In this study of regular exercise behavior and transtheoretical model-related variables, consciousness raising, self-reevaluation, and self-liberation were associated with a positive effect on regular exercise behavior in adults with metabolic syndrome. Our findings could be used to develop strategies and interventions to maintain regular exercise behavior directed at Korean adults with metabolic syndrome to reduce CVD risk. Further prospective intervention studies are needed to investigate the effect of regular exercise program on the prevention and/or reduction of CVD risk among this population. Health care providers, especially nurses, are optimally positioned to help their clients initiate and maintain regular exercise behavior in clinical and community settings.

Model Based Optimization of Integrated Low Voltage DC-DC Converter for Energy Harvesting Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaweera, H. M. P. C.; Muhtaroğlu, Ali

2016-11-01

A novel model based methodology is presented to determine optimal device parameters for the fully integrated ultra low voltage DC-DC converter for energy harvesting applications. The proposed model feasibly contributes to determine the maximum efficient number of charge pump stages to fulfill the voltage requirement of the energy harvester application. The proposed DC-DC converter based power consumption model enables the analytical derivation of the charge pump efficiency when utilized simultaneously with the known LC tank oscillator behavior under resonant conditions, and voltage step up characteristics of the cross-coupled charge pump topology. The verification of the model has been done using a circuit simulator. The optimized system through the established model achieves more than 40% maximum efficiency yielding 0.45 V output with single stage, 0.75 V output with two stages, and 0.9 V with three stages for 2.5 kΩ, 3.5 kΩ and 5 kΩ loads respectively using 0.2 V input.

Ecology of Root Colonizing Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae)

PubMed Central

Ofek, Maya; Hadar, Yitzhak; Minz, Dror

2012-01-01

Background Ecologically meaningful classification of bacterial populations is essential for understanding the structure and function of bacterial communities. As in soils, the ecological strategy of the majority of root-colonizing bacteria is mostly unknown. Among those are Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae), a major group of rhizosphere and root colonizing bacteria of many plant species. Methodology/Principal Findings The ecology of Massilia was explored in cucumber root and seed, and compared to that of Agrobacterium population, using culture-independent tools, including DNA-based pyrosequencing, fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative real-time PCR. Seed- and root-colonizing Massilia were primarily affiliated with other members of the genus described in soil and rhizosphere. Massilia colonized and proliferated on the seed coat, radicle, roots, and also on hyphae of phytopathogenic Pythium aphanidermatum infecting seeds. High variation in Massilia abundance was found in relation to plant developmental stage, along with sensitivity to plant growth medium modification (amendment with organic matter) and potential competitors. Massilia absolute abundance and relative abundance (dominance) were positively related, and peaked (up to 85%) at early stages of succession of the root microbiome. In comparison, variation in abundance of Agrobacterium was moderate and their dominance increased at later stages of succession. Conclusions In accordance with contemporary models for microbial ecology classification, copiotrophic and competition-sensitive root colonization by Massilia is suggested. These bacteria exploit, in a transient way, a window of opportunity within the succession of communities within this niche. PMID:22808103

A Study of the Frequency and Social Determinants of Exposure to Cancer-Related Direct-to-Consumer Advertising Among Breast, Prostate, and Colorectal Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Tan, Andy SL

2014-01-01

Cancer-related direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) is controversial because cancer treatment is complex and entails more risks and costs than typical treatments that are advertised for other conditions. Drawing from the Structural Influence Model of Communication, this study explores communication inequalities in DTCA exposure across social determinants among a population-based sample of 2013 patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, or colorectal cancers. Three survey items assessed patients' frequency of encountering ads concerning treatment alternatives for cancer, dealing with side effects of treatment, and doctors or hospitals offering services for cancer following their diagnosis. The analysis showed that overall exposure to DTCA in this study population was modest (median was once per week). Breast cancer patients reported significantly higher exposure to all three ad categories and overall DTCA exposure than prostate and colorectal cancer patients. Older patients consistently reported lower overall exposure to DTCA across the three cancer types. Other significant correlates included ethnicity (higher exposures among African-American prostate cancer patients vs. white; lower exposures in Hispanic colorectal cancer patients vs. white), and cancer stage (higher exposures in stage IV prostate cancer patients vs. stages 0-II). Education level did not predict patients' DTCA exposure. The implications of these observed inequalities in DTCA exposure on cancer outcomes are discussed. PMID:25357119

A Study of the Frequency and Social Determinants of Exposure to Cancer-Related Direct-to-Consumer Advertising Among Breast, Prostate, and Colorectal Cancer Patients.

PubMed

Tan, Andy S L

2015-01-01

Cancer-related direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) is controversial because cancer treatment is complex and entails more risks and costs than typical treatments that are advertised for other conditions. Drawing from the Structural Influence Model of Communication, this study explores communication inequalities in DTCA exposure across social determinants among a population-based sample of 2013 patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, or colorectal cancers. Three survey items assessed patients' frequency of encountering ads concerning treatment alternatives for cancer, dealing with side effects of treatment, and doctors or hospitals offering services for cancer following their diagnosis. The analysis showed that overall exposure to DTCA in this study population was modest (median was once per week). Breast cancer patients reported significantly higher exposure to all three ad categories and overall DTCA exposure than prostate and colorectal cancer patients. Older patients consistently reported lower overall exposure to DTCA across the three cancer types. Other significant correlates included ethnicity (higher exposures among African American prostate cancer patients vs. White; lower exposures in Hispanic colorectal cancer patients vs. White) and cancer stage (higher exposures in Stage IV prostate cancer patients vs. Stages 0-II). Education level did not predict patients' DTCA exposure. The implications of these observed inequalities in DTCA exposure on cancer outcomes are discussed.

Ecology of root colonizing Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae).

PubMed

Ofek, Maya; Hadar, Yitzhak; Minz, Dror

2012-01-01

Ecologically meaningful classification of bacterial populations is essential for understanding the structure and function of bacterial communities. As in soils, the ecological strategy of the majority of root-colonizing bacteria is mostly unknown. Among those are Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae), a major group of rhizosphere and root colonizing bacteria of many plant species. The ecology of Massilia was explored in cucumber root and seed, and compared to that of Agrobacterium population, using culture-independent tools, including DNA-based pyrosequencing, fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative real-time PCR. Seed- and root-colonizing Massilia were primarily affiliated with other members of the genus described in soil and rhizosphere. Massilia colonized and proliferated on the seed coat, radicle, roots, and also on hyphae of phytopathogenic Pythium aphanidermatum infecting seeds. High variation in Massilia abundance was found in relation to plant developmental stage, along with sensitivity to plant growth medium modification (amendment with organic matter) and potential competitors. Massilia absolute abundance and relative abundance (dominance) were positively related, and peaked (up to 85%) at early stages of succession of the root microbiome. In comparison, variation in abundance of Agrobacterium was moderate and their dominance increased at later stages of succession. In accordance with contemporary models for microbial ecology classification, copiotrophic and competition-sensitive root colonization by Massilia is suggested. These bacteria exploit, in a transient way, a window of opportunity within the succession of communities within this niche.

Effective surveillance strategies following a potential classical Swine Fever incursion in a remote wild pig population in North-Western Australia.

PubMed

Leslie, E; Cowled, B; Graeme Garner, M; Toribio, J-A L M L; Ward, M P

2014-10-01

Early disease detection and efficient methods of proving disease freedom can substantially improve the response to incursions of important transboundary animal diseases in previously free regions. We used a spatially explicit, stochastic disease spread model to simulate the spread of classical swine fever in wild pigs in a remote region of northern Australia and to assess the performance of disease surveillance strategies to detect infection at different time points and to delineate the size of the resulting outbreak. Although disease would likely be detected, simple random sampling was suboptimal. Radial and leapfrog sampling improved the effectiveness of surveillance at various stages of the simulated disease incursion. This work indicates that at earlier stages, radial sampling can reduce epidemic length and achieve faster outbreak delineation and control, but at later stages leapfrog sampling will outperform radial sampling in relation to supporting faster disease control with a less-extensive outbreak area. Due to the complexity of wildlife population dynamics and group behaviour, a targeted approach to surveillance needs to be implemented for the efficient use of resources and time. Using a more situation-based surveillance approach and accounting for disease distribution and the time period over which an epidemic has occurred is the best way to approach the selection of an appropriate surveillance strategy. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Enhancing speech recognition using improved particle swarm optimization based hidden Markov model.

PubMed

Selvaraj, Lokesh; Ganesan, Balakrishnan

2014-01-01

Enhancing speech recognition is the primary intention of this work. In this paper a novel speech recognition method based on vector quantization and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is suggested. The suggested methodology contains four stages, namely, (i) denoising, (ii) feature mining (iii), vector quantization, and (iv) IPSO based hidden Markov model (HMM) technique (IP-HMM). At first, the speech signals are denoised using median filter. Next, characteristics such as peak, pitch spectrum, Mel frequency Cepstral coefficients (MFCC), mean, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum of the signal are extorted from the denoised signal. Following that, to accomplish the training process, the extracted characteristics are given to genetic algorithm based codebook generation in vector quantization. The initial populations are created by selecting random code vectors from the training set for the codebooks for the genetic algorithm process and IP-HMM helps in doing the recognition. At this point the creativeness will be done in terms of one of the genetic operation crossovers. The proposed speech recognition technique offers 97.14% accuracy.

Development of habitat suitability indices for the Candy Darter, with cross-scale validation across representative populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunn, Corey G.; Angermeier, Paul

2016-01-01

Understanding relationships between habitat associations for individuals and habitat factors that limit populations is a primary challenge for managers of stream fishes. Although habitat use by individuals can provide insight into the adaptive significance of selected microhabitats, not all habitat parameters will be significant at the population level, particularly when distributional patterns partially result from habitat degradation. We used underwater observation to quantify microhabitat selection by an imperiled stream fish, the Candy Darter Etheostoma osburni, in two streams with robust populations. We developed multiple-variable and multiple-life-stage habitat suitability indices (HSIs) from microhabitat selection patterns and used them to assess the suitability of available habitat in streams where Candy Darter populations were extirpated, localized, or robust. Next, we used a comparative framework to examine relationships among (1) habitat availability across streams, (2) projected habitat suitability of each stream, and (3) a rank for the likely long-term viability (robustness) of the population inhabiting each stream. Habitat selection was characterized by ontogenetic shifts from the low-velocity, slightly embedded areas used by age-0 Candy Darters to the swift, shallow areas with little fine sediment and complex substrate, which were used by adults. Overall, HSIs were strongly correlated with population rank. However, we observed weak or inverse relationships between predicted individual habitat suitability and population robustness for multiple life stages and variables. The results demonstrated that microhabitat selection by individuals does not always reflect population robustness, particularly when based on a single life stage or season, which highlights the risk of generalizing habitat selection that is observed during nonstressful periods or for noncritical resources. These findings suggest that stream fish managers may need to be cautious when implementing conservation measures based solely on observations of habitat selection by individuals and that detailed study at the individual and population levels may be necessary to identify habitat that limits populations.

Modified cuspal relationships of mandibular molar teeth in children with Down's syndrome

PubMed Central

PERETZ, BENJAMIN; SHAPIRA, JOSEPH; FARBSTEIN, HANNA; ARIELI, ELIAHU; SMITH, PATRICIA

1998-01-01

A total of 50 permanent mandibular 1st molars of 26 children with Down's syndrome (DS) were examined from dental casts and 59 permanent mandibular 1st molars of normal children were examined from 33 individuals. The following measurements were performed on both right and left molars (teeth 46 and 36 respectively): (a) the intercusp distances (mb-db, mb-d, mb-dl, db-ml, db-d, db-dl, db-ml, d-dl, d-ml, dl-ml); (b) the db-mb-ml, mb-db-ml, mb-ml-db, d-mb-dl, mb-d-dl, mb-dl-d angles; (c) the area of the pentagon formed by connecting the cusp tips. All intercusp distances were significantly smaller in the DS group. Stepwise logistic regression, applied to all the intercusp distances, was used to design a multivariate probability model for DS and normals. A model based on 2 distances only, mb-dl and mb-db, proved sufficient to discriminate between the teeth of DS and the normal population. The model for tooth 36 for example was as follows: formula here A similar model for tooth 46 was also created, as well as a model which incorporated both teeth. With respect to the angles, significant differences between DS and normals were found in 3 out of the 6 angles which were measured: the d-mb-dl angle was smaller than in normals, the mb-d-dl angle was higher, and the mb-dl-d angle was smaller. The dl cusp was located closer to the centre of the tooth. The change in size occurs at an early stage, while the change in shape occurs in a later stage of tooth formation in the DS population. PMID:10029186

Cure of cancer for seven cancer sites in the Flemish Region.

PubMed

Silversmit, Geert; Jegou, David; Vaes, Evelien; Van Hoof, Elke; Goetghebeur, Els; Van Eycken, Liesbet

2017-03-01

Cumulative relative survival curves for many cancers reach a plateau several years after diagnosis, indicating that the cancer survivor group has reached "statistical" cure. Parametric mixture cure model analysis on grouped relative survival curves provide an interesting way to determine the proportion of statistically cured cases and the mean survival time of the fatal cases in particular for population-based cancer registries. Based on the relative survival data from the Belgian Cancer Registry, parametric cure models were applied to seven cancer sites (cervix, colon, corpus uteri, skin melanoma, pancreas, stomach and oesophagus), at the Flemish Regional level for the incidence period 1999-2011. Statistical cure was observed for the examined cancer sites except for oesophageal cancer. The estimated cured proportion ranged from 5.9% [5.7, 6.1] for pancreatic cancer to 80.8% [80.5, 81.2] for skin melanoma. Cure results were further stratified by gender or age group. Stratified cured proportions were higher for females compared to males in colon cancer, stomach cancer, pancreas cancer and skin melanoma, which can mainly be attributed to differences in stage and age distribution between both sexes. This study demonstrates the applicability of cure rate models for the selected cancer sites after 14 years of follow-up and presents the first population-based results on the cure of cancer in Belgium. © 2016 UICC.

A web-based Tamsui River flood early-warning system with correction of real-time water stage using monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, H. Y.; Lin, Y. J.; Chang, H. K.; Shang, R. K.; Kuo, H. C.; Lai, J. S.; Tan, Y. C.

2017-12-01

Taiwan encounters heavy rainfalls frequently. There are three to four typhoons striking Taiwan every year. To provide lead time for reducing flood damage, this study attempt to build a flood early-warning system (FEWS) in Tanshui River using time series correction techniques. The predicted rainfall is used as the input for the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the discharges calculated by the rainfall-runoff model is converted to the 1-D river routing model. The 1-D river routing model will output the simulating water stages in 487 cross sections for the future 48-hr. The downstream water stage at the estuary in 1-D river routing model is provided by storm surge simulation. Next, the water stages of 487 cross sections are corrected by time series model such as autoregressive (AR) model using real-time water stage measurements to improve the predicted accuracy. The results of simulated water stages are displayed on a web-based platform. In addition, the models can be performed remotely by any users with web browsers through a user interface. The on-line video surveillance images, real-time monitoring water stages, and rainfalls can also be shown on this platform. If the simulated water stage exceeds the embankments of Tanshui River, the alerting lights of FEWS will be flashing on the screen. This platform runs periodically and automatically to generate the simulation graphic data of flood water stages for flood disaster prevention and decision making.

What Drives the US and Peruvian HIV Epidemics in Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)?

PubMed Central

Goodreau, Steven M.; Carnegie, Nicole B.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Lama, Javier R.; Sanchez, Jorge; Grinsztejn, Beatriz; Koblin, Beryl A.; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Buchbinder, Susan P.

2012-01-01

In this work, we estimate the proportions of transmissions occurring in main vs. casual partnerships, and by the sexual role, infection stage, and testing and treatment history of the infected partner, for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US and Peru. We use dynamic, stochastic models based in exponential random graph models (ERGMs), obtaining inputs from multiple large-scale MSM surveys. Parallel main partnership and casual sexual networks are simulated. Each man is characterized by age, race, circumcision status, sexual role behavior, and propensity for unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); his history is modeled from entry into the adult population, with potential transitions including HIV infection, detection, treatment, AIDS diagnosis, and death. We implemented two model variants differing in assumptions about acute infectiousness, and assessed sensitivity to other key inputs. Our two models suggested that only 4–5% (Model 1) or 22–29% (Model 2) of HIV transmission results from contacts with acute-stage partners; the plurality (80–81% and 49%, respectively) stem from chronic-stage partners and the remainder (14–16% and 27–35%, respectively) from AIDS-stage partners. Similar proportions of infections stem from partners whose infection is undiagnosed (24–31%), diagnosed but untreated (36–46%), and currently being treated (30–36%). Roughly one-third of infections (32–39%) occur within main partnerships. Results by country were qualitatively similar, despite key behavioral differences; one exception was that transmission from the receptive to insertive partner appears more important in Peru (34%) than the US (21%). The broad balance in transmission contexts suggests that education about risk, careful assessment, pre-exposure prophylaxis, more frequent testing, earlier treatment, and risk-reduction, disclosure, and adherence counseling may all contribute substantially to reducing the HIV incidence among MSM in the US and Peru. PMID:23209768

Repeated faecal occult blood testing is associated with decreased advanced colorectal cancer risk: A population-based study.

PubMed

James, Paul D; Rabeneck, Linda; Yun, Lingsong; Paszat, Lawrence; Baxter, Nancy N; Govindarajan, Anand; Antonova, Lilia; Tinmouth, Jill M

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association between repeated faecal occult blood testing and advanced colorectal cancer risk at population level in Canada. Methods A retrospective cohort study of all Ontario residents aged 56-74 diagnosed with colorectal cancer from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2010, identified using health administrative data. The primary outcome was stage IV colorectal cancer, and primary exposure was faecal occult blood testing use within five years prior to colorectal cancer diagnosis. Patients were categorized into four mutually exclusive groups based on their exposure to faecal occult blood testing in the five years prior to colorectal cancer diagnosis: none, pre-diagnostic, repeated, and sporadic. Logistic regression was utilized to adjust for confounders. Results Of 7753 patients (median age 66, interquartile range 61-70, 62% male) identified, 1694 (22%) presented with stage I, 2056 (27%) with stage II, 2428 (31%) with stage III, and 1575 (20%) with stage IV colorectal cancer. There were 4092 (53%) with no record of prior faecal occult blood testing, 1485 (19%) classified as pre-diagnostic, 1693 (22%) as sporadic, and 483 (6%) as repeated faecal occult blood testing. After adjusting for confounders, patients who had repeated faecal occult blood testing were significantly less likely to present with stage IV colorectal cancer at diagnosis (Odds ratio 0.46, 95% Confidence Interval 0.34-0.62) than those with no prior faecal occult blood testing. Conclusions Repeated faecal occult blood testing is associated with a decreased risk of advanced colorectal cancer. Our findings support the use of organized screening programmes that employ repeated faecal occult blood testing to improve colorectal cancer outcomes at population level.

Within-Plant Distribution of Adult Brown Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Corn and Its Implications on Stink Bug Sampling and Management in Corn.

PubMed

Babu, Arun; Reisig, Dominic D

2018-05-29

Brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has emerged as a significant pest of corn, Zea mays L., in the southeastern United States. A 2-year study was conducted to quantify the within-plant vertical distribution of adult E. servus in field corn, to examine potential plant phenological characteristics associated with their observed distribution, and to select an efficient partial plant sampling method for adult E. servus population estimation. Within-plant distribution of adult E. servus was influenced by corn phenology. On V4- and V6-stage corn, most of the individuals were found at the base of the plant. Mean relative vertical position of adult E. servus population in corn plants trended upward between the V6 and V14 growth stages. During the reproductive corn growth stages (R1, R2, and R4), a majority of the adult E. servus were concentrated around developing ears. Based on the multiple selection criteria, during V4-V6 corn growth stages, either the corn stalk below the lowest green leaf or basal stratum method could employ for efficient E. servus sampling. Similarly, on reproductive corn growth stages (R1-R4), the plant parts between two leaves above and three leaves below the primary ear leaf were found to be areas to provide the most precise and cost-efficient sampling method. The results from our study successfully demonstrate that in the early vegetative and reproductive stages of corn, scouts can replace the current labor-intensive whole-plant search method with a more efficient, specific partial plant sampling method for E. servus population estimation.

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Brady, Oliver J.; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gething, Peter W.; Cohen, Justin M.; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Alex Perkins, T.; Reiner, Robert C.; Tusting, Lucy S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lindsay, Steven W.; Hay, Simon I.; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

Background Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of ‘vectorial capacity’, a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. Methods In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. Results We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. Conclusions These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. PMID:25733562

Predictive models to assess risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity: machine-learning algorithms and validation using national health data from Kuwait--a cohort study.

PubMed

Farran, Bassam; Channanath, Arshad Mohamed; Behbehani, Kazem; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse

2013-05-14

We build classification models and risk assessment tools for diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity using machine-learning algorithms on data from Kuwait. We model the increased proneness in diabetic patients to develop hypertension and vice versa. We ascertain the importance of ethnicity (and natives vs expatriate migrants) and of using regional data in risk assessment. Retrospective cohort study. Four machine-learning techniques were used: logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), multifactor dimensionality reduction and support vector machines. The study uses fivefold cross validation to obtain generalisation accuracies and errors. Kuwait Health Network (KHN) that integrates data from primary health centres and hospitals in Kuwait. 270 172 hospital visitors (of which, 89 858 are diabetic, 58 745 hypertensive and 30 522 comorbid) comprising Kuwaiti natives, Asian and Arab expatriates. Incident type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity. Classification accuracies of >85% (for diabetes) and >90% (for hypertension) are achieved using only simple non-laboratory-based parameters. Risk assessment tools based on k-NN classification models are able to assign 'high' risk to 75% of diabetic patients and to 94% of hypertensive patients. Only 5% of diabetic patients are seen assigned 'low' risk. Asian-specific models and assessments perform even better. Pathological conditions of diabetes in the general population or in hypertensive population and those of hypertension are modelled. Two-stage aggregate classification models and risk assessment tools, built combining both the component models on diabetes (or on hypertension), perform better than individual models. Data on diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity from the cosmopolitan State of Kuwait are available for the first time. This enabled us to apply four different case-control models to assess risks. These tools aid in the preliminary non-intrusive assessment of the population. Ethnicity is seen significant to the predictive models. Risk assessments need to be developed using regional data as we demonstrate the applicability of the American Diabetes Association online calculator on data from Kuwait.

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Treesearch

Donald J. Brown; Christine A. Ribic; Deahn M. Donner; Mark D. Nelson; Carol I. Bocetti; Christie M. Deloria-Sheffield; Des Thompson

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii...

Identifying populations sensitive to environmental chemicals by simulating toxicokinetic variability.

PubMed

Ring, Caroline L; Pearce, Robert G; Setzer, R Woodrow; Wetmore, Barbara A; Wambaugh, John F

2017-09-01

The thousands of chemicals present in the environment (USGAO, 2013) must be triaged to identify priority chemicals for human health risk research. Most chemicals have little of the toxicokinetic (TK) data that are necessary for relating exposures to tissue concentrations that are believed to be toxic. Ongoing efforts have collected limited, in vitro TK data for a few hundred chemicals. These data have been combined with biomonitoring data to estimate an approximate margin between potential hazard and exposure. The most "at risk" 95th percentile of adults have been identified from simulated populations that are generated either using standard "average" adult human parameters or very specific cohorts such as Northern Europeans. To better reflect the modern U.S. population, we developed a population simulation using physiologies based on distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities from the most recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. This allowed incorporation of inter-individual variability, including variability across relevant demographic subgroups. Variability was analyzed with a Monte Carlo approach that accounted for the correlation structure in physiological parameters. To identify portions of the U.S. population that are more at risk for specific chemicals, physiologic variability was incorporated within an open-source high-throughput (HT) TK modeling framework. We prioritized 50 chemicals based on estimates of both potential hazard and exposure. Potential hazard was estimated from in vitro HT screening assays (i.e., the Tox21 and ToxCast programs). Bioactive in vitro concentrations were extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse dosimetry approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with: 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with physiological parameters for a virtual population. For risk-based prioritization of chemicals, predicted bioactive equivalent doses were compared to demographic-specific inferences of exposure rates that were based on NHANES urinary analyte biomonitoring data. The inclusion of NHANES-derived inter-individual variability decreased predicted bioactive equivalent doses by 12% on average for the total population when compared to previous methods. However, for some combinations of chemical and demographic groups the margin was reduced by as much as three quarters. This TK modeling framework allows targeted risk prioritization of chemicals for demographic groups of interest, including potentially sensitive life stages and subpopulations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A kidney transplantation model in a low-resource country: an experience from Pakistan.

PubMed

Rizvi, Syed Adibul Hasan; Naqvi, Syed Ali Anwar; Zafar, Mirza Naqi; Akhtar, Syed Fazal

2013-05-01

Pakistan is a low-resource country with a population of 185 million where expenditure on health is 1.3% of the gross national product. The estimated incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is 100 per million of the population. The paucity and high costs of renal replacement therapy render more than 90% of the ESRD population disenfranchised from replacement therapy. Our center, which is a government sector organization, established as an integrated dialysis and living related renal transplant program in the 1980s, where all services were provided free of cost to all patients with life-long follow-up care including medications. The model was based on a concept of community/government partnership where the contributions to funds vary between 40% and 60% for each partner. The model has been self sustaining for 25 years, with an annual budget of $28 million in 2010. Presently, over 600 patients are dialyzed each day and each week, 7-10 patients have received live related transplants. The overall 1- and 5-year graft survival rate of 3150 transplants is 92% and 85%, respectively. Free dialysis and transplantation established our institute as a focus of transplantation in the country. This model therefore allowed the institute to have a vital role in the campaign against transplant tourism and in the promulgation of the transplant law. It shows that in low-resource countries, specialized centers in the government sector can, with community support, provide high-quality ESRD care to the disenfranchised population.

Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population.

PubMed

Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Caldas, Inês-Morais; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

2014-12-01

The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament.

Health state utility values in locally advanced and metastatic breast cancer by treatment line: a systematic review.

PubMed

Paracha, Noman; Thuresson, Per-Olof; Moreno, Santiago G; MacGilchrist, Katherine S

2016-10-01

For patients with late-stage (metastatic) breast cancer, the impact of treatment on health-related quality of life is a key factor in decision-making. A systematic review was conducted to identify health state utility values (HSUVs) for late-stage breast cancer, derived using methods preferred by health technology assessment (HTA) agencies, by treatment line. The aim was to generate a list of HSUVs, that could help to justify the values used to populate cost-utility models. Areas covered: Ten electronic databases, international congress websites and online HSUV databases were searched (January 1995-May 2014) for HSUVs for adults with late-stage breast cancer that had been derived from methods favoured by HTA agencies. Publications were included only if they reported studies that originated HSUVs. Expert commentary: Large numbers of HSUVs are available for late-stage breast cancer in the published literature. Contrary to expectations, the HSUVs reported in the literature vary greatly for some health states. As a result, the choice of HSUV can have considerable implications for the outcomes of economic evaluations. Standardization of HSUV methodology is expected to reduce variability; however, further research is recommended for assessing the sensitivity of generic preference-based measures in late-stage (metastatic) breast cancer.

The good, the bad and the ugly of marine reserves for fishery yields.

PubMed

De Leo, Giulio A; Micheli, Fiorenza

2015-11-05

Marine reserves (MRs) are used worldwide as a means of conserving biodiversity and protecting depleted populations. Despite major investments in MRs, their environmental and social benefits have proven difficult to demonstrate and are still debated. Clear expectations of the possible outcomes of MR establishment are needed to guide and strengthen empirical assessments. Previous models show that reserve establishment in overcapitalized, quota-based fisheries can reduce both catch and population abundance, thereby negating fisheries and even conservation benefits. By using a stage-structured, spatially explicit stochastic model, we show that catches under quota-based fisheries that include a network of MRs can exceed maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under conventional quota management if reserves provide protection to old, large spawners that disproportionally contribute to recruitment outside the reserves. Modelling results predict that the net fishery benefit of MRs is lost when gains in fecundity of old, large individuals are small, is highest in the case of sedentary adults with high larval dispersal, and decreases with adult mobility. We also show that environmental variability may mask fishery benefits of reserve implementation and that MRs may buffer against collapse when sustainable catch quotas are exceeded owing to stock overestimation or systematic overfishing. © 2015 The Author(s).

The great melting pot. Common sole population connectivity assessed by otolith and water fingerprints.

PubMed

Morat, Fabien; Letourneur, Yves; Dierking, Jan; Pécheyran, Christophe; Bareille, Gilles; Blamart, Dominique; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille

2014-01-01

Quantifying the scale and importance of individual dispersion between populations and life stages is a key challenge in marine ecology. The common sole (Solea solea), an important commercial flatfish in the North Sea, Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a marine pelagic larval stage, a benthic juvenile stage in coastal nurseries (lagoons, estuaries or shallow marine areas) and a benthic adult stage in deeper marine waters on the continental shelf. To date, the ecological connectivity among these life stages has been little assessed in the Mediterranean. Here, such an assessment is provided for the first time for the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean, based on a dataset on otolith microchemistry and stable isotopic composition as indicators of the water masses inhabited by individual fish. Specifically, otolith Ba/Ca and Sr/Ca profiles, and δ(13)C and δ(18)O values of adults collected in four areas of the Gulf of Lions were compared with those of young-of-the-year collected in different coastal nurseries. Results showed that a high proportion of adults (>46%) were influenced by river inputs during their larval stage. Furthermore Sr/Ca ratios and the otolith length at one year of age revealed that most adults (∼70%) spent their juvenile stage in nurseries with high salinity, whereas the remainder used brackish environments. In total, data were consistent with the use of six nursery types, three with high salinity (marine areas and two types of highly saline lagoons) and three brackish (coastal areas near river mouths, and two types of brackish environments), all of which contributed to the replenishment of adult populations. These finding implicated panmixia in sole population in the Gulf of Lions and claimed for a habitat integrated management of fisheries.

The Great Melting Pot. Common Sole Population Connectivity Assessed by Otolith and Water Fingerprints

PubMed Central

Morat, Fabien; Letourneur, Yves; Dierking, Jan; Pécheyran, Christophe; Bareille, Gilles; Blamart, Dominique; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille

2014-01-01

Quantifying the scale and importance of individual dispersion between populations and life stages is a key challenge in marine ecology. The common sole (Solea solea), an important commercial flatfish in the North Sea, Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a marine pelagic larval stage, a benthic juvenile stage in coastal nurseries (lagoons, estuaries or shallow marine areas) and a benthic adult stage in deeper marine waters on the continental shelf. To date, the ecological connectivity among these life stages has been little assessed in the Mediterranean. Here, such an assessment is provided for the first time for the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean, based on a dataset on otolith microchemistry and stable isotopic composition as indicators of the water masses inhabited by individual fish. Specifically, otolith Ba/Ca and Sr/Ca profiles, and δ13C and δ18O values of adults collected in four areas of the Gulf of Lions were compared with those of young-of-the-year collected in different coastal nurseries. Results showed that a high proportion of adults (>46%) were influenced by river inputs during their larval stage. Furthermore Sr/Ca ratios and the otolith length at one year of age revealed that most adults (∼70%) spent their juvenile stage in nurseries with high salinity, whereas the remainder used brackish environments. In total, data were consistent with the use of six nursery types, three with high salinity (marine areas and two types of highly saline lagoons) and three brackish (coastal areas near river mouths, and two types of brackish environments), all of which contributed to the replenishment of adult populations. These finding implicated panmixia in sole population in the Gulf of Lions and claimed for a habitat integrated management of fisheries. PMID:24475151

Psychosocial determinants of HIV testing across stages of change in Spanish population: a cross-sectional national survey.

PubMed

Fuster-RuizdeApodaca, Maria Jose; Laguia, Ana; Molero, Fernando; Toledo, Javier; Arrillaga, Arantxa; Jaen, Angeles

2017-03-07

The goal of this research is to study the psychosocial determinants of HIV-testing as a function of the decision or change stage concerning this health behavior. The determinants considered in the major ongoing health models and the stages contemplated in the Precaution Adoption Process Model are analysed. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 1,554 people over 16 years of age living in Spain by a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI). The sample design was randomised, with quotas of sex and age. The survey measured various psychosocial determinants of health behaviors considered in the main cognitive theories, the interviewees' stage of change concerning HIV-testing (lack of awareness, decision not to act, decision to act, action, maintenance, and abandonment), and the signal for the action of getting tested or the perceived barriers to being tested. Approximately two thirds of the population had not ever had the HIV test. The predominant stage was lack of awareness. The most frequently perceived barriers to testing were related to the health system and to the stigma. We also found that the psychosocial determinants studied differed depending on the respondents' stage of change. Perception of risk, perceived self-efficacy, proximity to people who had been tested, perceived benefits of knowing the diagnosis, and a positive instrumental and emotional attitude were positively associated with the decision and maintenance of testing behavior. However, unrealistic underestimation of the risk of HIV infection, stereotypes about the infection, and the perceived severity of HIV were associated with the decision not to be tested. There are various sociocognitive and motivational profiles depending on people's decision stage concerning HIV-testing. Knowing this profile may allow us to design interventions to influence the psychosocial determinants that characterise each stage of change.

Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

PubMed

Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

2016-01-01

Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are <50 years of age and only 9% present with stage I disease. Average age increased from 53 to 56.4 years (p=0.0001), CR (per 105 women) increased from 39 (ASR: 35.2) to 55.4 (ASR: 43.4), AAPC for CR was 5.0 (p=0.001) and ASR was 3.1 (p=0.001). Rates increased from 50 years. Predicted ASpR is 174 in 50-59 years, 231 in > 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

Demographic effects of deltamethrin resistance in the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans.

PubMed

Germano, M D; Picollo, M I

2016-12-01

Triatoma infestans (Heteroptera: Reduviidae) Klug is the main vector of Chagas disease in Latin America. Resistance to deltamethrin was reported in Argentina and recently associated with reproductive and longevity trade-offs. The objectives of the present study were to describe the demographic consequences of deltamethrin resistance in T. infestans and to establish possible target stages for chemical control in susceptible and resistant colonies. A stage-classified matrix model was constructed based on the average stage length for susceptible, resistant and reciprocal matings' progeny. The differences between colonies were analysed by prospective and retrospective analysis. The life table parameters indicated reduced fecundity, fertility and population growth in resistant insects. The retrospective analysis suggested the latter was associated with lower reproductive output and increased fifth-instar nymph stage length. The prospective analysis suggested that the adult stage should be the main target for insecticide control. Although, fifth-instar nymphs should also be targeted when resistance has been detected. The presented results show demographic effects of deltamethrin resistance in T. infestans. While the older stages could be the main targets for chemical control, this approach is impeded by their higher tolerance to insecticides. It is concluded that the different mode of action insecticides would be more effective than a dose increase for the control of deltamethrin-resistant T. infestans. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

Screening for Wilms tumor and hepatoblastoma in children with Beckwith-Wiedemann syndromes: a cost-effective model.

PubMed

McNeil, D E; Brown, M; Ching, A; DeBaun, M R

2001-10-01

We undertook a cost-benefit analysis of screening for Wilms tumor and hepatoblastoma in children with Beckwith-Wiedemann syndrome (BWS), a known cancer predisposition syndrome. The purpose of this analysis was twofold: first, to assess whether screening in children with BWS has the potential to be cost-effective; second, if screening appears to be cost-effective, to determine which parameters would be most important to assess if a screening trial were initiated. We used data from the BWS registry at the National Cancer Institute, the National Wilms Tumor Study (NWTS), and large published series to model events for two hypothetical cohorts of 1,000 infants born with BWS. One hypothetical cohort was screened for cancer until a predetermined age, representing the base case. The other cohort was unscreened. For our base case, we assumed: (a) sonography examinations three times yearly (triannually) from birth until 7 years of age; (b) screening would result in one stage shift downward at diagnosis for Wilms tumor and hepatoblastoma; (c) 100% sensitivity and 95% specificity for detecting clinical stage I Wilms tumor and hepatoblastoma; (d) a 3% discount rate; (e) a false positive result cost of $402. We estimated mortality rates based on published Wilms tumor and hepatoblastoma stage specific survival. Using the base case, screening a child with BWS from birth until 4 years of age results in a cost per life year saved of $9,642 while continuing until 7 years of age results in a cost per life-year saved of $14,740. When variables such as cost of screening examination, discount rate, and effectiveness of screening were varied based on high and low estimates, the incremental cost per life-year saved for screening up until age four remained comparable to acceptable population based cancer screening ranges (< $50,000 per life year saved). Under our model's assumptions, abdominal sonography examinations in children with BWS represent a reasonable strategy for a cancer screening program. A cancer screening trial is warranted to determine if, when, and how often children with BWS should be screened and to determine cost-effectiveness in clinical practice. Published 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

2011-01-01

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

The Grief Resolution Process in Divorce.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crosby, John F.; And Others

1983-01-01

Compares grief in divorce to the Kubler-Ross model of grief resolution in bereavement in 17 persons who wrote essays about their divorce. The results suggested a conceptual model based on three chronological stages with linear progression through the stages, characterized by circularity within each stage. (JAC)

78 FR 8535 - Medicare Program: Comprehensive End-Stage Renal Disease Care Model Announcement

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-06

... develop and test innovative health care payment and service delivery models that show promise of reducing program expenditures, while preserving or enhancing the quality of care for Medicare, Medicaid, and... disease (ESRD). This population has complex health care needs, typically with comorbid conditions and...

Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

Treesearch

Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

2014-01-01

Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

Stage of cancer diagnoses among migrants from the former Soviet Union in comparison to the German population - are diagnoses among migrants delayed?

PubMed

Cho, An Bin; Jaehn, Philipp; Holleczek, Bernd; Becher, Heiko; Winkler, Volker

2018-01-17

In this study, we compared stage at diagnosis, standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of most frequent cancer diagnoses between re-settlers (Aussiedler) from the former Soviet Union and the general population in the Saarland in Germany to assess possible delays in diagnosis of cancer among this migrant group. Lung cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, malignant melanoma of the skin and stomach cancer diagnoses among a cohort of 18,619 re-settlers living in the Saarland between 1990 and 2009 were identified by the federal state's cancer registry. Vital status was available for the respective time-period and used to calculate SIR and SMR in comparison to the autochthonous population. Tumor stages were condensed into local and advanced stages. Odds ratios (OR) for an advanced tumor stage were modeled in dependence of re-settler-status and relevant covariates by logistic regression. Missing values were addressed in a sensitivity analysis. The influence of duration of stay in Germany on advanced stage diagnosis was analyzed among re-settlers. SIR and SMR of lung and breast cancer were lower among female re-settlers, while SIR and SMR of colorectal and prostate cancer were lower among male re-settlers. SIR and SMR of stomach cancer were elevated among both sexes. Female re-settlers showed an elevated OR for being diagnosed with advanced stage breast cancer. Both male and female re-settlers showed an elevated OR when observing all six sites combined (OR among males 1.47, p = 0.04; OR among females 1.37, p = 0.05). The result of elevated ORs was supported in the sensitivity analysis. Finally, male re-settlers showed a weak association between duration of stay in Germany and reduced risk for advanced stage diagnosis. Re-settlers were more likely to be diagnosed at an advanced tumor stage. These findings are in line with previous research having shown unfavorable health care utilization of re-settlers. Overall, low mortality rates despite an increased risk of advanced stage at diagnosis argue for a sufficient follow-up care, comparable to the autochthonous population.

Promoting exercise behavior among Chinese youth with hearing loss: a randomized controlled trial based on the transtheoretical model.

PubMed

Si, Qi; Yu, Kehong; Cardinal, Bradley J; Lee, Hyo; Yan, Zi; Loprinzi, Paul D; Li, Fuzhong; Liu, Haiqun

2011-12-01

The transtheoretical model proposes that behavior change is experienced as a series of stages. Interventions tailored to these stages are most likely to be effective in progressing people through the model's hypothesized behavior change continuum. In this study, a stage-tailored, 12-week, exercise behavior intervention based on the transtheoretical model was conducted among a sample of 150 Chinese youth with hearing loss. Participants were randomized into an intervention or control group with all the core transtheoretical model constructs assessed pre- and post-intervention. Participants in the intervention group showed greater advances in their stage of exercise behavior change, decisional balance, and processes of change use compared to those in the control group. The intervention, however, was insufficient for increasing participants' self-efficacy for exercise behavior. The findings partially support the utility of the theory-based intervention for improving the exercise behavior of Chinese youth with hearing loss, while simultaneously helping to identify areas in need of improvement for future applications.

Imbalance detection in a manufacturing system: An agent-based model usage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchuk, G. K.; Zvereva, O. M.; Medvedev, M. A.

2017-11-01

This paper delivers the results of the research work targeted at communications in a manufacturing system. A computer agent-based model which simulates manufacturing system functioning has been engineered. The system lifecycle consists of two recursively repeated stages: a communication stage and a production stage. Model data sets were estimated with the static Leontief's equilibrium equation usage. In experiments relationships between the manufacturing system lifecycle time and conditions of equilibrium violations have been identified. The research results are to be used to propose violation negative influence compensation methods.

An HIV Epidemic Model Based on Viral Load Dynamics: Value in Assessing Empirical Trends in HIV Virulence and Community Viral Load

PubMed Central

Herbeck, Joshua T.; Mittler, John E.; Gottlieb, Geoffrey S.; Mullins, James I.

2014-01-01

Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL) as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.75 log10 viral RNA copies/mL. Adaptive viral evolution may explain observed HIV virulence trends: our model produces SPVL trends with magnitudes that are broadly similar to empirical trends. With regard to variation among studies in empirical SPVL trends, results from our model suggest that variation may be explained by the specific epidemic context, e.g. the mean SPVL of the founding lineage or the age of the epidemic; or improvements in HIV screening and diagnosis that results in sampling biases. We also use our model to examine trends in community viral load, a population-level measure of HIV viral load that is thought to reflect a population's overall transmission potential. We find that community viral load evolves in association with SPVL, in the absence of prevention programs such as antiretroviral therapy, and that the mean community viral load is not necessarily a strong predictor of HIV incidence. PMID:24945322

Descriptive characteristics of colon and rectal cancer recurrence in a Danish population-based study.

PubMed

Holmes, Ashley C; Riis, Anders H; Erichsen, Rune; Fedirko, Veronika; Ostenfeld, Eva Bjerre; Vyberg, Mogens; Thorlacius-Ussing, Ole; Lash, Timothy L

2017-08-01

Recurrence is a common outcome among patients that have undergone an intended curative resection for colorectal cancer. However, data on factors that influence colorectal cancer recurrence are sparse. We report descriptive characteristics of both colon and rectal cancer recurrence in an unselected population. We identified 21,152 patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed between May 2001 and December 2011 and registered with the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group. Recurrences were identified in 3198 colon and 1838 rectal cancer patients during follow-up. We calculated the frequency, proportion, and incidence rates of colon and rectal cancer recurrence within descriptive categories, and the cumulative five- and ten-year incidences of recurrence, treating death as a competing risk. We used a Cox proportional hazard model to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Recurrence risk was highest in the first three years of follow-up. Patients <55 years old at initial diagnosis (incidence rate for colon: 7.2 per 100 person-years; 95% CI: 6.5-7.9; rectum: 8.1 per 100 person-years; 95% CI: 7.2-9.0) and patients diagnosed with stage III cancer (colon HR: 5.70; 95% CI: 4.61-7.06; rectal HR: 7.02; 95% CI: 5.58-8.82) had increased risk of recurrence. Patients diagnosed with stage III cancer from 2009 to 2011 had a lower incidence of recurrence than those diagnosed with stage III cancer in the years before. Cumulative incidences of colon and rectal cancer recurrence were similar for both cancer types among each descriptive category. In this population, increases in colorectal cancer recurrence risk were associated with younger age and increasing stage at diagnosis. Cumulative incidence of recurrence did not differ by cancer type. Descriptive characteristics of colon and rectal cancer recurrence may help to inform patient-physician decision-making, and could be used to determine adjuvant therapies or tailor surveillance strategies so that recurrence may be identified early, particularly within the first 3 years of follow-up.

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

PubMed Central

Billari, Francesco C.

2015-01-01

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed. PMID:25912913

The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change

PubMed Central

Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M.

2012-01-01

A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations. PMID:22623955

Disparities in the Initial Local Treatment of Older Women with Early-Stage Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

LeMasters, Traci J; Madhavan, Suresh S; Sambamoorthi, Usha; Vyas, Ami M

2017-07-01

Although breast cancer is most prevalent among older women, the majority are diagnosed at an early stage. When diagnosed at an early stage, women have the option of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) plus radiation therapy (RT) or mastectomy for the treatment of early-stage breast cancer (ESBC). Omission of RT when receiving BCS increases the risk for recurrence and poor survival. Yet, a small subset of older women may omit RT after BCS. This study examines the current patterns of local treatment for ESBC among older women. This study conducted a retrospective observational analysis using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked dataset of women age ≥66 diagnosed with stage I-II breast cancer in 2003-2009. SEER-Medicare data was additionally linked with data from the Area Resource File (ARF) to examine the association between area-level healthcare resources and treatment. Two logistic regression models were used to estimate how study factors were associated with receiving (1) BCS versus BCS+RT and (2) Mastectomy versus BCS+RT. A stratified analysis was also conducted among women aged <70 years. Among 45,924 patients, 55% received BCS+RT, 23% received mastectomy, and 22% received BCS only. Women of increasing age, comorbidity, primary care provider visits, stage II disease, and nonwhite race were more likely to have mastectomy or BCS only, than BCS+RT. Women diagnosed in 2004-2006, treated by an oncology surgeon, residing in metro areas, areas of greater education and income, were less likely to receive mastectomy or BCS only, than BCS+RT. While women aged <70 years were more likely to receive BCS+RT, socioeconomic and physician specialties were associated with receiving BCS only. Over half of older women with ESBC initially receive BCS+RT. The likelihood for mastectomy and BCS only increases with age, comorbidity, and vulnerable socio-demographic characteristics. Findings demonstrate continued treatment disparities among certain vulnerable populations.

Validation of an Eulerian population model for the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alver, Morten Omholt; Broch, Ole Jacob; Melle, Webjørn; Bagøien, Espen; Slagstad, Dag

2016-08-01

Calanus finmarchicus is an important zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea, as a dominant food organism for pelagic fish larvae, and a potentially large source of marine lipids and proteins. Its position in the marine food web also makes it an important model species in assessing the risk posed by oil spills in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas. In this study, an Eulerian population model for C.finmarchicus, coupled to the physical and ecological model SINMOD, is presented. The model includes the full life cycle of C. finmarchicus with a representation of all developmental stages. The model has been validated against field measurements made in different areas of the Norwegian Sea in 1997 and 1998. The model displays geographical and temporal distributions of development stages that is in line with observed patterns. When comparing time series for selected regions, we see a high degree of variability both in the field samples and model output. On average, the model deviations are near half of the summed variability of the field data and model estimates. The model has applications within assessment of ecological production, and the potential for harvesting in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas, but in combination with other models, also for the assessment of ecological effects of oil spills and other types of pollution.

Progression of regional grey matter atrophy in multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Marinescu, Razvan V; Young, Alexandra L; Firth, Nicholas C; Jorge Cardoso, M; Tur, Carmen; De Angelis, Floriana; Cawley, Niamh; Brownlee, Wallace J; De Stefano, Nicola; Laura Stromillo, M; Battaglini, Marco; Ruggieri, Serena; Gasperini, Claudio; Filippi, Massimo; Rocca, Maria A; Rovira, Alex; Sastre-Garriga, Jaume; Geurts, Jeroen J G; Vrenken, Hugo; Wottschel, Viktor; Leurs, Cyra E; Uitdehaag, Bernard; Pirpamer, Lukas; Enzinger, Christian; Ourselin, Sebastien; Gandini Wheeler-Kingshott, Claudia A; Chard, Declan; Thompson, Alan J; Barkhof, Frederik; Alexander, Daniel C; Ciccarelli, Olga

2018-01-01

Abstract See Stankoff and Louapre (doi:10.1093/brain/awy114) for a scientific commentary on this article. Grey matter atrophy is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis, but its temporal ordering is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the sequence in which grey matter regions become atrophic in multiple sclerosis and its association with disability accumulation. In this longitudinal study, we included 1417 subjects: 253 with clinically isolated syndrome, 708 with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 128 with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, 125 with primary-progressive multiple sclerosis, and 203 healthy control subjects from seven European centres. Subjects underwent repeated MRI (total number of scans 3604); the mean follow-up for patients was 2.41 years (standard deviation = 1.97). Disability was scored using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. We calculated the volume of brain grey matter regions and brainstem using an unbiased within-subject template and used an established data-driven event-based model to determine the sequence of occurrence of atrophy and its uncertainty. We assigned each subject to a specific event-based model stage, based on the number of their atrophic regions. Linear mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between the rate of increase in event-based model stages, and T2 lesion load, disease-modifying treatments, comorbidity, disease duration and disability accumulation. The first regions to become atrophic in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and relapse-onset multiple sclerosis were the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, followed by the middle cingulate cortex, brainstem and thalamus. A similar sequence of atrophy was detected in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis with the involvement of the thalamus, cuneus, precuneus, and pallidum, followed by the brainstem and posterior cingulate cortex. The cerebellum, caudate and putamen showed early atrophy in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and late atrophy in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis showed the highest event-based model stage (the highest number of atrophic regions, P < 0.001) at the study entry. All multiple sclerosis phenotypes, but clinically isolated syndrome, showed a faster rate of increase in the event-based model stage than healthy controls. T2 lesion load and disease duration in all patients were associated with increased event-based model stage, but no effects of disease-modifying treatments and comorbidity on event-based model stage were observed. The annualized rate of event-based model stage was associated with the disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, independent of disease duration (P < 0.0001). The data-driven staging of atrophy progression in a large multiple sclerosis sample demonstrates that grey matter atrophy spreads to involve more regions over time. The sequence in which regions become atrophic is reasonably consistent across multiple sclerosis phenotypes. The spread of atrophy was associated with disease duration and with disability accumulation over time in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. PMID:29741648

Progression of regional grey matter atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Eshaghi, Arman; Marinescu, Razvan V; Young, Alexandra L; Firth, Nicholas C; Prados, Ferran; Jorge Cardoso, M; Tur, Carmen; De Angelis, Floriana; Cawley, Niamh; Brownlee, Wallace J; De Stefano, Nicola; Laura Stromillo, M; Battaglini, Marco; Ruggieri, Serena; Gasperini, Claudio; Filippi, Massimo; Rocca, Maria A; Rovira, Alex; Sastre-Garriga, Jaume; Geurts, Jeroen J G; Vrenken, Hugo; Wottschel, Viktor; Leurs, Cyra E; Uitdehaag, Bernard; Pirpamer, Lukas; Enzinger, Christian; Ourselin, Sebastien; Gandini Wheeler-Kingshott, Claudia A; Chard, Declan; Thompson, Alan J; Barkhof, Frederik; Alexander, Daniel C; Ciccarelli, Olga

2018-06-01

See Stankoff and Louapre (doi:10.1093/brain/awy114) for a scientific commentary on this article.Grey matter atrophy is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis, but its temporal ordering is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the sequence in which grey matter regions become atrophic in multiple sclerosis and its association with disability accumulation. In this longitudinal study, we included 1417 subjects: 253 with clinically isolated syndrome, 708 with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 128 with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, 125 with primary-progressive multiple sclerosis, and 203 healthy control subjects from seven European centres. Subjects underwent repeated MRI (total number of scans 3604); the mean follow-up for patients was 2.41 years (standard deviation = 1.97). Disability was scored using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. We calculated the volume of brain grey matter regions and brainstem using an unbiased within-subject template and used an established data-driven event-based model to determine the sequence of occurrence of atrophy and its uncertainty. We assigned each subject to a specific event-based model stage, based on the number of their atrophic regions. Linear mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between the rate of increase in event-based model stages, and T2 lesion load, disease-modifying treatments, comorbidity, disease duration and disability accumulation. The first regions to become atrophic in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and relapse-onset multiple sclerosis were the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, followed by the middle cingulate cortex, brainstem and thalamus. A similar sequence of atrophy was detected in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis with the involvement of the thalamus, cuneus, precuneus, and pallidum, followed by the brainstem and posterior cingulate cortex. The cerebellum, caudate and putamen showed early atrophy in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and late atrophy in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis showed the highest event-based model stage (the highest number of atrophic regions, P < 0.001) at the study entry. All multiple sclerosis phenotypes, but clinically isolated syndrome, showed a faster rate of increase in the event-based model stage than healthy controls. T2 lesion load and disease duration in all patients were associated with increased event-based model stage, but no effects of disease-modifying treatments and comorbidity on event-based model stage were observed. The annualized rate of event-based model stage was associated with the disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, independent of disease duration (P < 0.0001). The data-driven staging of atrophy progression in a large multiple sclerosis sample demonstrates that grey matter atrophy spreads to involve more regions over time. The sequence in which regions become atrophic is reasonably consistent across multiple sclerosis phenotypes. The spread of atrophy was associated with disease duration and with disability accumulation over time in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Life after Stroke in an Urban Minority Population: A Photovoice Project.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Revathi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Negron, Rennie; Fei, Kezhen; Goldfinger, Judith Z; Horowitz, Carol R

2017-03-11

Stroke is a leading cause of disability in the United States and disproportionately affects minority populations. We sought to explore the quality of life in urban, minority stroke survivors through their own photos and narratives. Using the Photovoice method, seventeen stroke survivors were instructed to take pictures reflecting their experience living with and recovering from stroke. Key photographs were discussed in detail; participants brainstormed ways to improve their lives and presented their work in clinical and community sites. Group discussions were recorded, transcribed, and coded transcripts were reviewed with written narratives to identify themes. Participants conveyed recovery from stroke in three stages: learning to navigate the initial physical and emotional impact of the stroke; coping with newfound physical and emotional barriers; and long-term adaptation to physical impairment and/or chronic disease. Participants navigated this stage-based model to varying degrees of success and identified barriers and facilitators to this process. Barriers included limited access for disabled and limited healthy food choices unique to the urban setting; facilitators included presence of social support and community engagement. Using Photovoice, diverse stroke survivors were able to identify common challenges in adapting to life after stroke and important factors for recovery of quality of life.

Modelling virus- and host-limitation in vectored plant disease epidemics.

PubMed

Jeger, M J; van den Bosch, F; Madden, L V

2011-08-01

Models of plant virus epidemics have received less attention than those caused by fungal pathogens. Intuitively, the fact that virus diseases are systemic means that the individual diseased plant can be considered as the population unit which simplifies modelling. However, the fact that a vector is required in the vast majority of cases for virus transmission, means that explicit consideration must be taken of the vector, or, the involvement of the vector in the transmission process must be considered implicitly. In the latter case it is also important that within-plant processes, such as virus multiplication and systemic movement, are taken into account. In this paper we propose an approach based on the linking of transmission at the population level with virus multiplication within plants. The resulting models are parameter-sparse and hence simplistic. However, the range of model outcomes is representative of field observations relating to the apparent limitation of epidemic development in populations of healthy susceptible plants. We propose that epidemic development can be constrained by virus limitation in the early stages of an epidemic when the availability of healthy susceptible hosts is not limiting. There is an inverse relationship between levels of transmission in the population and the mean virus titre/infected plant. In the case of competition between viruses, both virus and host limitation are likely to be important in determining whether one virus can displace another or whether both viruses can co-exist in a plant population. Lotka-Volterra type equations are derived to describe density-dependent competition between two viruses multiplying within plants, embedded within a population level epidemiological model. Explicit expressions determining displacement or co-existence of the viruses are obtained. Unlike the classical Lotka-Volterra competition equations, the co-existence requirement for the competition coefficients to be both less than 1 can be relaxed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a Markovian environment: A theory and an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.R.

1975-01-01

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a Markovian (stochastic, serially correlated) environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important special cases as simplifications. Extensive empirical data on the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used as an example of general theory. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. A general mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. The literature and analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, two hypotheses were explored: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, and (2) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under the rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. If we assume that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality in Mallards, then optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slight concave function of the environmental conditions. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the Mallard breeding population. Dynamic programming is suggested as a very general formulation for realistic solutions to the general optimal exploitation problem. The concepts of state vectors and stage transformations are completely general. Populations can be modeled stochastically and the objective function can include extra-biological factors. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, or harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Reducing Sun Exposure for Prevention of Skin Cancers: Factorial Invariance and Reliability of the Self-Efficacy Scale for Sun Protection

PubMed Central

Babbin, Steven F.; Yin, Hui-Qing; Rossi, Joseph S.; Redding, Colleen A.; Paiva, Andrea L.; Velicer, Wayne F.

2015-01-01

The Self-Efficacy Scale for Sun Protection consists of two correlated factors with three items each for Sunscreen Use and Avoidance. This study evaluated two crucial psychometric assumptions, factorial invariance and scale reliability, with a sample of adults (N = 1356) participating in a computer-tailored, population-based intervention study. A measure has factorial invariance when the model is the same across subgroups. Three levels of invariance were tested, from least to most restrictive: (1) Configural Invariance (nonzero factor loadings unconstrained); (2) Pattern Identity Invariance (equal factor loadings); and (3) Strong Factorial Invariance (equal factor loadings and measurement errors). Strong Factorial Invariance was a good fit for the model across seven grouping variables: age, education, ethnicity, gender, race, skin tone, and Stage of Change for Sun Protection. Internal consistency coefficient Alpha and factor rho scale reliability, respectively, were .84 and .86 for Sunscreen Use, .68 and .70 for Avoidance, and .78 and .78 for the global (total) scale. The psychometric evidence demonstrates strong empirical support that the scale is consistent, has internal validity, and can be used to assess population-based adult samples. PMID:26457203

A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia.

PubMed

Abas, Zuraida Abal; Ramli, Mohamad Raziff; Desa, Mohamad Ishak; Saleh, Nordin; Hanafiah, Ainul Nadziha; Aziz, Nuraini; Abidin, Zaheera Zainal; Shibghatullah, Abdul Samad; Rahman, Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul; Musa, Haslinda

2017-08-18

The paper aims to provide an insight into the significance of having a simulation model to forecast the supply of registered nurses for health workforce planning policy using System Dynamics. A model is highly in demand to predict the workforce demand for nurses in the future, which it supports for complete development of a needs-based nurse workforce projection using Malaysia as a case study. The supply model consists of three sub-models to forecast the number of registered nurses for the next 15 years: training model, population model and Full Time Equivalent (FTE) model. In fact, the training model is for predicting the number of newly registered nurses after training is completed. Furthermore, the population model is for indicating the number of registered nurses in the nation and the FTE model is useful for counting the number of registered nurses with direct patient care. Each model is described in detail with the logical connection and mathematical governing equation for accurate forecasting. The supply model is validated using error analysis approach in terms of the root mean square percent error and the Theil inequality statistics, which is mportant for evaluating the simulation results. Moreover, the output of simulation results provides a useful insight for policy makers as a what-if analysis is conducted. Some recommendations are proposed in order to deal with the nursing deficit. It must be noted that the results from the simulation model will be used for the next stage of the Needs-Based Nurse Workforce projection project. The impact of this study is that it provides the ability for greater planning and policy making with better predictions.

A2-3: Impact of Mild Chronic Kidney Disease Stage on Outcomes after Total Hip or Knee Arthroplasty

PubMed Central

Graham, Jove; Deegan, Brian; Bowen, Thomas; Richard, Raveesh; Perkins, Robert; Foltzer, Michael

2014-01-01

Background/Aims Dialysis and kidney transplantation adversely impact outcomes of total hip or knee arthroplasty (THA, TKA), but complication rates have not been reported for patients with less advanced stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Surgeons lack the data necessary to have informed discussions regarding anticipated outcomes of joint replacement for these patients. Methods We retrospectively reviewed electronic health records of 779 adults with stages 1, 2, and 3 CKD not requiring dialysis or transplantation who underwent THA or TKA from 2004–2011, to assess infection, revision, 90-day readmission and mortality rates. Patients with less than 12 months follow-up, open fracture, prior joint surgery, pregnancy, or acute kidney injury were excluded. Chi-square analysis and Cox survival analysis compared these outcomes between the stage 1–2 and stage 3 groups, stratified by joint replaced (THA vs TKA). All models adjusted for age, sex and BMI at surgery. Results No statistically different rates of revision or infection between Stage 3 vs. Stages 1–2 were seen, although there was a trend toward increased infections in Stage 3. THA patients with Stage 3 showed a significantly increased mortality rate compared to Stage 1–2 THA patients (HR 3.40, 95% CI = 1.25–9.23, P = 0.02). Conclusions CKD affects nearly 15% of the U.S. population many of whom undergo joint replacement. End stage kidney disease (patients post-transplant or on hemodialysis) has been consistently associated with increased rates of infection and revision in excess of our observed outcomes, but the overall rate of infection/revision in our study population was only slightly higher than reported rates in the general population (2–7% vs. 1–2%, respectively). CKD should not preclude joint replacement, but these data can help clinicians engage in meaningful informed discussions with patients with mild kidney disease regarding risks for infection, revision and death following joint replacement.

The New Performance Calculation Method of Fouled Axial Flow Compressor

PubMed Central

Xu, Hong

2014-01-01

Fouling is the most important performance degradation factor, so it is necessary to accurately predict the effect of fouling on engine performance. In the previous research, it is very difficult to accurately model the fouled axial flow compressor. This paper develops a new performance calculation method of fouled multistage axial flow compressor based on experiment result and operating data. For multistage compressor, the whole compressor is decomposed into two sections. The first section includes the first 50% stages which reflect the fouling level, and the second section includes the last 50% stages which are viewed as the clean stage because of less deposits. In this model, the performance of the first section is obtained by combining scaling law method and linear progression model with traditional stage stacking method; simultaneously ambient conditions and engine configurations are considered. On the other hand, the performance of the second section is calculated by averaged infinitesimal stage method which is based on Reynolds' law of similarity. Finally, the model is successfully applied to predict the 8-stage axial flow compressor and 16-stage LM2500-30 compressor. The change of thermodynamic parameters such as pressure ratio, efficiency with the operating time, and stage number is analyzed in detail. PMID:25197717

Validation of a partial coherence interferometry method for estimating retinal shape

PubMed Central

Verkicharla, Pavan K.; Suheimat, Marwan; Pope, James M.; Sepehrband, Farshid; Mathur, Ankit; Schmid, Katrina L.; Atchison, David A.

2015-01-01

To validate a simple partial coherence interferometry (PCI) based retinal shape method, estimates of retinal shape were determined in 60 young adults using off-axis PCI, with three stages of modeling using variants of the Le Grand model eye, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stage 1 and 2 involved a basic model eye without and with surface ray deviation, respectively and Stage 3 used model with individual ocular biometry and ray deviation at surfaces. Considering the theoretical uncertainty of MRI (12-14%), the results of the study indicate good agreement between MRI and all three stages of PCI modeling with <4% and <7% differences in retinal shapes along horizontal and vertical meridians, respectively. Stage 2 and Stage 3 gave slightly different retinal co-ordinates than Stage 1 and we recommend the intermediate Stage 2 as providing a simple and valid method of determining retinal shape from PCI data. PMID:26417496

Validation of a partial coherence interferometry method for estimating retinal shape.

PubMed

Verkicharla, Pavan K; Suheimat, Marwan; Pope, James M; Sepehrband, Farshid; Mathur, Ankit; Schmid, Katrina L; Atchison, David A

2015-09-01

To validate a simple partial coherence interferometry (PCI) based retinal shape method, estimates of retinal shape were determined in 60 young adults using off-axis PCI, with three stages of modeling using variants of the Le Grand model eye, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stage 1 and 2 involved a basic model eye without and with surface ray deviation, respectively and Stage 3 used model with individual ocular biometry and ray deviation at surfaces. Considering the theoretical uncertainty of MRI (12-14%), the results of the study indicate good agreement between MRI and all three stages of PCI modeling with <4% and <7% differences in retinal shapes along horizontal and vertical meridians, respectively. Stage 2 and Stage 3 gave slightly different retinal co-ordinates than Stage 1 and we recommend the intermediate Stage 2 as providing a simple and valid method of determining retinal shape from PCI data.

Variation in treatment and survival of older patients with non-metastatic breast cancer in five European countries: a population-based cohort study from the EURECCA Breast Cancer Group.

PubMed

Derks, Marloes G M; Bastiaannet, Esther; Kiderlen, Mandy; Hilling, Denise E; Boelens, Petra G; Walsh, Paul M; van Eycken, Elizabeth; Siesling, Sabine; Broggio, John; Wyld, Lynda; Trojanowski, Maciej; Kolacinska, Agnieszka; Chalubinska-Fendler, Justyna; Gonçalves, Ana Filipa; Nowikiewicz, Tomasz; Zegarski, Wojciech; Audisio, Riccardo A; Liefers, Gerrit-Jan; Portielje, Johanneke E A; van de Velde, Cornelis J H

2018-06-07

Older patients are poorly represented in breast cancer research and guidelines do not provide evidence based recommendations for this specific group. We compared treatment strategies and survival outcomes between European countries and assessed whether variance in treatment patterns may be associated with variation in survival. Population-based study including patients aged ≥ 70 with non-metastatic BC from cancer registries from the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, England and Greater Poland. Proportions of local and systemic treatments, five-year relative survival and relative excess risks (RER) between countries were calculated. In total, 236,015 patients were included. The proportion of stage I BC receiving endocrine therapy ranged from 19.6% (Netherlands) to 84.6% (Belgium). The proportion of stage III BC receiving no breast surgery varied between 22.0% (Belgium) and 50.8% (Ireland). For stage I BC, relative survival was lower in England compared with Belgium (RER 2.96, 95%CI 1.30-6.72, P < .001). For stage III BC, England, Ireland and Greater Poland showed significantly worse relative survival compared with Belgium. There is substantial variation in treatment strategies and survival outcomes in elderly with BC in Europe. For early-stage BC, we observed large variation in endocrine therapy but no variation in relative survival, suggesting potential overtreatment. For advanced BC, we observed higher survival in countries with lower proportions of omission of surgery, suggesting potential undertreatment.

Estimates and predictors of health care costs of esophageal adenocarcinoma: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Thein, Hla-Hla; Jembere, Nathaniel; Thavorn, Kednapa; Chan, Kelvin K W; Coyte, Peter C; de Oliveira, Claire; Hur, Chin; Earle, Craig C

2018-06-27

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is increasing rapidly. Esophageal cancer has the second lowest 5-year survival rate of people diagnosed with cancer in Canada. Given the poor survival and the potential for further increases in incidence, phase-specific cost estimates constitute an important input for economic evaluation of prevention, screening, and treatment interventions. The study aims to estimate phase-specific net direct medical costs of care attributable to EAC, costs stratified by cancer stage and treatment, and predictors of total net costs of care for EAC. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative health data from 2003 to 2011. The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days (2016 CAD) were estimated from the payer perspective using phase of care approach and generalized estimating equations. Predictors of net cost by phase of care were based on a generalized estimating equations model with a logarithmic link and gamma distribution adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days were $1016 (95% CI, $955-$1078) in the initial phase, $669 (95% CI, $594-$743) in the continuing care phase, and $8678 (95% CI, $8217-$9139) in the terminal phase. Overall, stage IV at diagnosis and surgery plus radiotherapy for EAC incurred the highest cost, particularly in the terminal phase. Strong predictors of higher net costs were receipt of chemotherapy plus radiotherapy, surgery plus chemotherapy, radiotherapy alone, surgery alone, and chemotherapy alone in the initial and continuing care phases, stage III-IV disease and patients diagnosed with EAC later in a calendar year (2007-2011) in the initial and terminal phases, comorbidity in the continuing care phase, and older age at diagnosis (70-74 years), and geographic region in the terminal phase. Costs of care vary by phase of care, stage at diagnosis, and type of treatment for EAC. These cost estimates provide information to guide future resource allocation decisions, and clinical and policy interventions to reduce the burden of EAC.

Duration of Sleep and ADHD Tendency among Adolescents in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Lawrence T.; Yang, L.

2008-01-01

Objective: This study investigates the association between duration of sleep and ADHD tendency among adolescents. Method: This population-based health survey uses a two-stage random cluster sampling design. Participants ages 13 to 17 are recruited from the total population of adolescents attending high school in one city of China. Duration of…

Scoring and staging systems using cox linear regression modeling and recursive partitioning.

PubMed

Lee, J W; Um, S H; Lee, J B; Mun, J; Cho, H

2006-01-01

Scoring and staging systems are used to determine the order and class of data according to predictors. Systems used for medical data, such as the Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring and staging systems for ordering and classifying patients with liver disease, are often derived strictly from physicians' experience and intuition. We construct objective and data-based scoring/staging systems using statistical methods. We consider Cox linear regression modeling and recursive partitioning techniques for censored survival data. In particular, to obtain a target number of stages we propose cross-validation and amalgamation algorithms. We also propose an algorithm for constructing scoring and staging systems by integrating local Cox linear regression models into recursive partitioning, so that we can retain the merits of both methods such as superior predictive accuracy, ease of use, and detection of interactions between predictors. The staging system construction algorithms are compared by cross-validation evaluation of real data. The data-based cross-validation comparison shows that Cox linear regression modeling is somewhat better than recursive partitioning when there are only continuous predictors, while recursive partitioning is better when there are significant categorical predictors. The proposed local Cox linear recursive partitioning has better predictive accuracy than Cox linear modeling and simple recursive partitioning. This study indicates that integrating local linear modeling into recursive partitioning can significantly improve prediction accuracy in constructing scoring and staging systems.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

PubMed

Goyens, J; Reijniers, J; Borremans, B; Leirs, H

2013-01-21

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and validating the cost and clinical pathway of colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Joranger, Paal; Nesbakken, Arild; Hoff, Geir; Sorbye, Halfdan; Oshaug, Arne; Aas, Eline

2015-02-01

Cancer is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, and colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the world. The estimated costs of CRC treatment vary considerably, and if CRC costs in a model are based on empirically estimated total costs of stage I, II, III, or IV treatments, then they lack some flexibility to capture future changes in CRC treatment. The purpose was 1) to describe how to model CRC costs and survival and 2) to validate the model in a transparent and reproducible way. We applied a semi-Markov model with 70 health states and tracked age and time since specific health states (using tunnels and 3-dimensional data matrix). The model parameters are based on an observational study at Oslo University Hospital (2049 CRC patients), the National Patient Register, literature, and expert opinion. The target population was patients diagnosed with CRC. The model followed the patients diagnosed with CRC from the age of 70 until death or 100 years. The study focused on the perspective of health care payers. The model was validated for face validity, internal and external validity, and cross-validity. The validation showed a satisfactory match with other models and empirical estimates for both cost and survival time, without any preceding calibration of the model. The model can be used to 1) address a range of CRC-related themes (general model) like survival and evaluation of the cost of treatment and prevention measures; 2) make predictions from intermediate to final outcomes; 3) estimate changes in resource use and costs due to changing guidelines; and 4) adjust for future changes in treatment and trends over time. The model is adaptable to other populations. © The Author(s) 2014.

Development of a population pharmacokinetic model for carbamazepine based on sparse therapeutic monitoring data from pediatric patients with epilepsy.

PubMed

Carlsson, Kristin Cecilie; Hoem, Nils Ove; Glauser, Tracy; Vinks, Alexander A

2005-05-01

Population models can be important extensions of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as they allow estimation of individual pharmacokinetic parameters based on a small number of measured drug concentrations. This study used a Bayesian approach to explore the utility of routinely collected and sparse TDM data (1 sample per patient) for carbamazepine (CBZ) monotherapy in developing a population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model for CBZ in pediatric patients that would allow prediction of CBZ concentrations for both immediate- and controlled-release formulations. Patient and TDM data were obtained from a pediatric neurology outpatient database. Data were analyzed using an iterative 2-stage Bayesian algorithm and a nonparametric adaptive grid algorithm. Models were compared by final log likelihood, mean error (ME) as a measure of bias, and root mean squared error (RMSE) as a measure of precision. Fifty-seven entries with data on CBZ monotherapy were identified from the database and used in the analysis (36 from males, 21 from females; mean [SD] age, 9.1 [4.4] years [range, 2-21 years]). Preliminary models estimating clearance (Cl) or the elimination rate constant (K(el)) gave good prediction of serum concentrations compared with measured serum concentrations, but estimates of Cl and K(el) were highly correlated with estimates of volume of distribution (V(d)). Different covariate models were then tested. The selected model had zero-order input and had age and body weight as covariates. Cl (L/h) was calculated as K(el) . V(d), where K(el) = [K(i) - (K(s) . age)] and V(d) = [V(i) + (V(s) . body weight)]. Median parameter estimates were V(i) (intercept) = 11.5 L (fixed); V(s) (slope) = 0.3957 L/kg (range, 0.01200-1.5730); K(i) (intercept) = 0.173 h(-1) (fixed); and K(s) (slope) = 0.004487 h(-1) . y(-1) (range, 0.0001800-0.02969). The fit was good for estimates of steady-state serum concentrations based on prior values (population median estimates) (R = 0.468; R(2) = 0.219) but was even better for predictions based on individual Bayesian posterior values (R(2) = 0.991), with little bias (ME = -0.079) and good precision (RMSE = 0.055). Based on the findings of this study, sparse TDM data can be used for PPK modeling of CBZ clearance in children with epilepsy, and these models can be used to predict Cl at steady state in pediatric patients. However, to estimate additional pharmacokinetic model parameters (eg, the absorption rate constant and V(d)), it would be necessary to combine sparse TDM data with additional well-timed samples. This would allow development of more informative PPK models that could be used as part of Bayesian dose-individualization strategies.

Correcting bias due to missing stage data in the non-parametric estimation of stage-specific net survival for colorectal cancer using multiple imputation.

PubMed

Falcaro, Milena; Carpenter, James R

2017-06-01

Population-based net survival by tumour stage at diagnosis is a key measure in cancer surveillance. Unfortunately, data on tumour stage are often missing for a non-negligible proportion of patients and the mechanism giving rise to the missingness is usually anything but completely at random. In this setting, restricting analysis to the subset of complete records gives typically biased results. Multiple imputation is a promising practical approach to the issues raised by the missing data, but its use in conjunction with the Pohar-Perme method for estimating net survival has not been formally evaluated. We performed a resampling study using colorectal cancer population-based registry data to evaluate the ability of multiple imputation, used along with the Pohar-Perme method, to deliver unbiased estimates of stage-specific net survival and recover missing stage information. We created 1000 independent data sets, each containing 5000 patients. Stage data were then made missing at random under two scenarios (30% and 50% missingness). Complete records analysis showed substantial bias and poor confidence interval coverage. Across both scenarios our multiple imputation strategy virtually eliminated the bias and greatly improved confidence interval coverage. In the presence of missing stage data complete records analysis often gives severely biased results. We showed that combining multiple imputation with the Pohar-Perme estimator provides a valid practical approach for the estimation of stage-specific colorectal cancer net survival. As usual, when the percentage of missing data is high the results should be interpreted cautiously and sensitivity analyses are recommended. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computing local edge probability in natural scenes from a population of oriented simple cells

PubMed Central

Ramachandra, Chaithanya A.; Mel, Bartlett W.

2013-01-01

A key computation in visual cortex is the extraction of object contours, where the first stage of processing is commonly attributed to V1 simple cells. The standard model of a simple cell—an oriented linear filter followed by a divisive normalization—fits a wide variety of physiological data, but is a poor performing local edge detector when applied to natural images. The brain's ability to finely discriminate edges from nonedges therefore likely depends on information encoded by local simple cell populations. To gain insight into the corresponding decoding problem, we used Bayes's rule to calculate edge probability at a given location/orientation in an image based on a surrounding filter population. Beginning with a set of ∼ 100 filters, we culled out a subset that were maximally informative about edges, and minimally correlated to allow factorization of the joint on- and off-edge likelihood functions. Key features of our approach include a new, efficient method for ground-truth edge labeling, an emphasis on achieving filter independence, including a focus on filters in the region orthogonal rather than tangential to an edge, and the use of a customized parametric model to represent the individual filter likelihood functions. The resulting population-based edge detector has zero parameters, calculates edge probability based on a sum of surrounding filter influences, is much more sharply tuned than the underlying linear filters, and effectively captures fine-scale edge structure in natural scenes. Our findings predict nonmonotonic interactions between cells in visual cortex, wherein a cell may for certain stimuli excite and for other stimuli inhibit the same neighboring cell, depending on the two cells' relative offsets in position and orientation, and their relative activation levels. PMID:24381295

Atlas Based Segmentation and Mapping of Organs at Risk from Planning CT for the Development of Voxel-Wise Predictive Models of Toxicity in Prostate Radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acosta, Oscar; Dowling, Jason; Cazoulat, Guillaume; Simon, Antoine; Salvado, Olivier; de Crevoisier, Renaud; Haigron, Pascal

The prediction of toxicity is crucial to managing prostate cancer radiotherapy (RT). This prediction is classically organ wise and based on the dose volume histograms (DVH) computed during the planning step, and using for example the mathematical Lyman Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) model. However, these models lack spatial accuracy, do not take into account deformations and may be inappropiate to explain toxicity events related with the distribution of the delivered dose. Producing voxel wise statistical models of toxicity might help to explain the risks linked to the dose spatial distribution but is challenging due to the difficulties lying on the mapping of organs and dose in a common template. In this paper we investigate the use of atlas based methods to perform the non-rigid mapping and segmentation of the individuals' organs at risk (OAR) from CT scans. To build a labeled atlas, 19 CT scans were selected from a population of patients treated for prostate cancer by radiotherapy. The prostate and the OAR (Rectum, Bladder, Bones) were then manually delineated by an expert and constituted the training data. After a number of affine and non rigid registration iterations, an average image (template) representing the whole population was obtained. The amount of consensus between labels was used to generate probabilistic maps for each organ. We validated the accuracy of the approach by segmenting the organs using the training data in a leave one out scheme. The agreement between the volumes after deformable registration and the manually segmented organs was on average above 60% for the organs at risk. The proposed methodology provides a way to map the organs from a whole population on a single template and sets the stage to perform further voxel wise analysis. With this method new and accurate predictive models of toxicity will be built.

The "Romsas in Motion" Community Intervention: Mediating Effects of Psychosocial Factors on Forward Transition in the Stages of Change in Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lorentzen, Catherine; Ommundsen, Yngvar; Jenum, Anne Karen; Holme, Ingar

2009-01-01

This study examines whether a community-based physical activity intervention influenced movement in stages of change in physical activity in an adult population, whether any such effect was mediated by psychosocial influences, and whether any such mediations were moderated by sociodemographic or anthropometric factors. The 3-year-long…