Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.; Jak, Suzanne

2016-01-01

Meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) involves fitting models to a common population correlation matrix that is estimated on the basis of correlation coefficients that are reported by a number of independent studies. MASEM typically consist of two stages. The method that has been found to perform best in terms of statistical…

Parameter Stability of the Functional–Structural Plant Model GREENLAB as Affected by Variation within Populations, among Seasons and among Growth Stages

PubMed Central

Ma, Yuntao; Li, Baoguo; Zhan, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Luquet, Delphine; de Reffye, Philippe; Dingkuhn, Michael

2007-01-01

Background and Aims It is increasingly accepted that crop models, if they are to simulate genotype-specific behaviour accurately, should simulate the morphogenetic process generating plant architecture. A functional–structural plant model, GREENLAB, was previously presented and validated for maize. The model is based on a recursive mathematical process, with parameters whose values cannot be measured directly and need to be optimized statistically. This study aims at evaluating the stability of GREENLAB parameters in response to three types of phenotype variability: (1) among individuals from a common population; (2) among populations subjected to different environments (seasons); and (3) among different development stages of the same plants. Methods Five field experiments were conducted in the course of 4 years on irrigated fields near Beijing, China. Detailed observations were conducted throughout the seasons on the dimensions and fresh biomass of all above-ground plant organs for each metamer. Growth stage-specific target files were assembled from the data for GREENLAB parameter optimization. Optimization was conducted for specific developmental stages or the entire growth cycle, for individual plants (replicates), and for different seasons. Parameter stability was evaluated by comparing their CV with that of phenotype observation for the different sources of variability. A reduced data set was developed for easier model parameterization using one season, and validated for the four other seasons. Key Results and Conclusions The analysis of parameter stability among plants sharing the same environment and among populations grown in different environments indicated that the model explains some of the inter-seasonal variability of phenotype (parameters varied less than the phenotype itself), but not inter-plant variability (parameter and phenotype variability were similar). Parameter variability among developmental stages was small, indicating that parameter values were largely development-stage independent. The authors suggest that the high level of parameter stability observed in GREENLAB can be used to conduct comparisons among genotypes and, ultimately, genetic analyses. PMID:17158141

Consequences of stage-structured predators: cannibalism, behavioral effects, and trophic cascades.

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W

2007-12-01

Cannibalistic and asymmetrical behavioral interactions between stages are common within stage-structured predator populations. Such direct interactions between predator stages can result in density- and trait-mediated indirect interactions between a predator and its prey. A set of structured predator-prey models is used to explore how such indirect interactions affect the dynamics and structure of communities. Analyses of the separate and combined effects of stage-structured cannibalism and behavior-mediated avoidance of cannibals under different ecological scenarios show that both cannibalism and behavioral avoidance of cannibalism can result in short- and long-term positive indirect connections between predator stages and the prey, including "apparent mutualism." These positive interactions alter the strength of trophic cascades such that the system's dynamics are determined by the interaction between bottom-up and top-down effects. Contrary to the expectation of simpler models, enrichment increases both predator and prey abundance in systems with cannibalism or behavioral avoidance of cannibalism. The effect of behavioral avoidance of cannibalism, however, depends on how strongly it affects the maturation rate of the predator. Behavioral interactions between predator stages reduce the short-term positive effect of cannibalism on the prey density, but can enhance its positive long-term effects. Both interaction types reduce the destabilizing effect of enrichment. These results suggest that inconsistencies between data and simple models can be resolved by accounting for stage-structured interactions within and among species.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-03-21

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner's Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual's death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-01-01

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner’s Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual’s death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. PMID:25637763

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Evaluating aggregate effects of rare and common variants in the 1000 Genomes Project exon sequencing data using latent variable structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Nock, Nl; Zhang, Lx

2011-11-29

Methods that can evaluate aggregate effects of rare and common variants are limited. Therefore, we applied a two-stage approach to evaluate aggregate gene effects in the 1000 Genomes Project data, which contain 24,487 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 697 unrelated individuals from 7 populations. In stage 1, we identified potentially interesting genes (PIGs) as those having at least one SNP meeting Bonferroni correction using univariate, multiple regression models. In stage 2, we evaluate aggregate PIG effects on trait, Q1, by modeling each gene as a latent construct, which is defined by multiple common and rare variants, using the multivariate statistical framework of structural equation modeling (SEM). In stage 1, we found that PIGs varied markedly between a randomly selected replicate (replicate 137) and 100 other replicates, with the exception of FLT1. In stage 1, collapsing rare variants decreased false positives but increased false negatives. In stage 2, we developed a good-fitting SEM model that included all nine genes simulated to affect Q1 (FLT1, KDR, ARNT, ELAV4, FLT4, HIF1A, HIF3A, VEGFA, VEGFC) and found that FLT1 had the largest effect on Q1 (βstd = 0.33 ± 0.05). Using replicate 137 estimates as population values, we found that the mean relative bias in the parameters (loadings, paths, residuals) and their standard errors across 100 replicates was on average, less than 5%. Our latent variable SEM approach provides a viable framework for modeling aggregate effects of rare and common variants in multiple genes, but more elegant methods are needed in stage 1 to minimize type I and type II error.

Community-level consequences of cannibalism.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Oystein; Stenseth, Nils C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

2012-12-01

Ecological interactions determine the structure and dynamics of communities and their responses to the environment. Understanding the community-level effects of ecological interactions, such as intra- and interspecifc competition, predation, and cannibalism, is therefore central to ecological theory and ecosystem management. Here, we investigate the community-level consequences of cannibalism in populations with density-dependent maturation and reproduction. We model a stage-structured consumer population with an ontogenetic diet shift to analyze how cannibalism alters the conditions for the invasion and persistence of stage-specific predators and competitors. Our results demonstrate that cannibalistic interactions can facilitate coexistence with other species at both trophic levels. This effect of cannibalism critically depends on the food dependence of the demographic processes. The underlying mechanism is a cannibalism-induced shift in the biomass distribution between the consumer life stages. These findings suggest that cannibalism may alter the structure of ecological communities through its effects on species coexistence.

Evaluating effects of Everglades restoration on American crocodile populations in south Florida using a spatially-explicit, stage-based population model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Timothy W.; Slone, Daniel H.; Swain, Eric D.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Lohmann, Melinda; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.

2014-01-01

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Structural neuroimaging across early-stage psychosis: Aberrations in neurobiological trajectories and implications for the staging model.

PubMed

Bartholomeusz, Cali F; Cropley, Vanessa L; Wannan, Cassandra; Di Biase, Maria; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos

2017-05-01

This review critically examines the structural neuroimaging evidence in psychotic illness, with a focus on longitudinal imaging across the first-episode psychosis and ultra-high-risk of psychosis illness stages. A thorough search of the literature involving specifically longitudinal neuroimaging in early illness stages of psychosis was conducted. The evidence supporting abnormalities in brain morphology and altered neurodevelopmental trajectories is discussed in the context of a clinical staging model. In general, grey matter (and, to a lesser extent, white matter) declines across multiple frontal, temporal (especially superior regions), insular and parietal regions during the first episode of psychosis, which has a steeper trajectory than that of age-matched healthy counterparts. Although the ultra-high-risk of psychosis literature is considerably mixed, evidence indicates that certain volumetric structural aberrations predate psychotic illness onset (e.g. prefrontal cortex thinning), while other abnormalities present in ultra-high-risk of psychosis populations are potentially non-psychosis-specific (e.g. hippocampal volume reductions). We highlight the advantages of longitudinal designs, discuss the implications such studies have on clinical staging and provide directions for future research.

Seasonal reproduction leads to population collapse and an Allee effect in a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model when mortality rate increases

PubMed Central

de Roos, André M.

2017-01-01

Many populations collapse suddenly when reaching low densities even if they have abundant food conditions, a phenomenon known as an Allee effect. Such collapses can have disastrous consequences, for example, for loss of biodiversity. In this paper, we formulate a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model in which adults only reproduce at the beginning of each growing season, and investigate the effect of an increasing stage-independent background mortality rate of the consumer. As the main difference with previously studied continuous-time models, seasonal reproduction can result in an Allee effect and consumer population collapses at high consumer mortality rate. However, unlike the mechanisms reported in the literature, in our model the Allee effect results from the time difference between the maturation of juveniles and the reproduction of adults. The timing of maturation plays a crucial role because it not only determines the body size of the individuals at maturation but also influences the duration of the period during which adults can invest in reproductive energy, which together determine the reproductive output at the end of the season. We suggest that there exists an optimal timing of maturation and that consumer persistence is promoted if individuals mature later in the season at a larger body size, rather than maturing early, despite high food availability supporting rapid growth. PMID:29088273

Continuous and Discrete Structured Population Models with Applications to Epidemiology and Marine Mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tingting

In this dissertation, we develop structured population models to examine how changes in the environmental affect population processes. In Chapter 2, we develop a general continuous time size structured model describing a susceptible-infected (SI) population coupled with the environment. This model applies to problems arising in ecology, epidemiology, and cell biology. The model consists of a system of quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations coupled with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represent the environment. We develop a second-order high resolution finite difference scheme to numerically solve the model. Convergence of this scheme to a weak solution with bounded total variation is proved. We numerically compare the second order high resolution scheme with a first order finite difference scheme. Higher order of convergence and high resolution property are observed in the second order finite difference scheme. In addition, we apply our model to a multi-host wildlife disease problem, questions regarding the impact of the initial population structure and transition rate within each host are numerically explored. In Chapter 3, we use a stage structured matrix model for wildlife population to study the recovery process of the population given an environmental disturbance. We focus on the time it takes for the population to recover to its pre-event level and develop general formulas to calculate the sensitivity or elasticity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population distribution, vital rates and event severity. Our results suggest that the recovery time is independent of the initial population size, but is sensitive to the initial population structure. Moreover, it is more sensitive to the reduction proportion to the vital rates of the population caused by the catastrophe event relative to the duration of impact of the event. We present the potential application of our model to the amphibian population dynamic and the recovery of a certain plant population. In addition, we explore, in details, the application of the model to the sperm whale population in Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In Chapter 4, we summarize the results from Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 and explore some further avenues of our research.

A Two-Stage Approach to Missing Data: Theory and Application to Auxiliary Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria; Bentler, Peter M.

2009-01-01

A well-known ad-hoc approach to conducting structural equation modeling with missing data is to obtain a saturated maximum likelihood (ML) estimate of the population covariance matrix and then to use this estimate in the complete data ML fitting function to obtain parameter estimates. This 2-stage (TS) approach is appealing because it minimizes a…

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Effects of population succession on demographic and genetic processes: predictions and tests in the daylily Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Mi Yoon; Nason, John D; Chung, Myong Gi

2007-07-01

Spatial genetic structure within plant populations is influenced by variation in demographic processes through space and time, including a population's successional status. To determine how demographic structure and fine-scale genetic structure (FSGS) change with stages in a population's successional history, we studied Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae), a nocturnal flowering and hawkmoth-pollinated herbaceous perennial with rapid population turnover dynamics. We examined nine populations assigned to three successive stages of population succession: expansion, maturation, and senescence. We developed stage-specific expectations for within-population demographic and genetic structure, and then for each population quantified the spatial aggregation of individuals and genotypes using spatial autocorrelation methods (nonaccumulative O-ring and kinship statistics, respectively), and at the landscape level measured inbreeding and genetic structure using Wright's F-statistics. Analyses using the O-ring statistic revealed significant aggregation of individuals at short spatial scales in expanding and senescing populations, in particular, which may reflect restricted seed dispersal around maternal individuals combined with relatively low local population densities at these stages. Significant FSGS was found for three of four expanding, no mature, and only one senescing population, a pattern generally consistent with expectations of successional processes. Although allozyme genetic diversity was high within populations (mean %P = 78.9 and H(E) = 0.281), landscape-level differentiation among sites was also high (F(ST) = 0.166) and all populations exhibited a significant deficit of heterozygotes relative to Hardy-Weinberg expectations (range F = 0.201-0.424, mean F(IS) = 0.321). Within populations, F was not correlated with the degree of FSGS, thus suggesting inbreeding due primarily to selfing as opposed to mating among close relatives in spatially structured populations. Our results demonstrate considerable variation in the spatial distribution of individuals and patterns and magnitude of FSGS in H. thunbergii populations across the landscape. This variation is generally consistent with succession-stage-specific differences in ecological processes operating within these populations.

A parasitism-mutualism-predation model consisting of crows, cuckoos and cats with stage-structure and maturation delays on crows and cuckoos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, Yantao; Zhang, Long; Teng, Zhidong; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2018-01-01

In this paper, a parasitism-mutualism-predation model is proposed to investigate the dynamics of multi-interactions among cuckoos, crows and cats with stage-structure and maturation time delays on cuckoos and crows. The crows permit the cuckoos to parasitize their nestlings (eggs) on the crow chicks (eggs). In return, the cuckoo nestlings produce a malodorous cloacal secretion to protect the crow chicks from predation by the cats, which is apparently beneficial to both the crow and cuckoo population. The multi-interactions, i.e., parasitism and mutualism between the cuckoos (nestlings) and crows (chicks), predation between the cats and crow chicks are modeled both by Holling-type II and Beddington-DeAngelis-type functional responses. The existence of positive equilibria of three subsystems of the model are discussed. The criteria for the global stability of the trivial equilibrium are established by the Krein-Rutman Theorem and other analysis methods. Moreover, the threshold dynamics for the coexistence and weak persistence of the model are obtained, and we show, both analytically and numerically, that the stabilities of the interior equilibria may change with the increasing maturation time delays. We find there exists an evident difference in the dynamical properties of the parasitism-mutualism-predation model based on whether or not we consider the effects of stage-structure and maturation time delays on cuckoos and crows. Inclusion of stage structure results in many varied dynamical complexities which are difficult to encompass without this inclusion.

Oceanography and life history predict contrasting genetic population structure in two Antarctic fish species.

PubMed

Young, Emma F; Belchier, Mark; Hauser, Lorenz; Horsburgh, Gavin J; Meredith, Michael P; Murphy, Eugene J; Pascoal, Sonia; Rock, Jennifer; Tysklind, Niklas; Carvalho, Gary R

2015-06-01

Understanding the key drivers of population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for the effective management of natural resources. Although several different approaches to evaluating connectivity have been used, they are rarely integrated quantitatively. Here, we use a 'seascape genetics' approach, by combining oceanographic modelling and microsatellite analyses, to understand the dominant influences on the population genetic structure of two Antarctic fishes with contrasting life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. The close accord between the model projections and empirical genetic structure demonstrated that passive dispersal during the planktonic early life stages is the dominant influence on patterns and extent of genetic structuring in both species. The shorter planktonic phase of C. gunnari restricts direct transport of larvae between distant populations, leading to stronger regional differentiation. By contrast, geographic distance did not affect differentiation in N. rossii, whose longer larval period promotes long-distance dispersal. Interannual variability in oceanographic flows strongly influenced the projected genetic structure, suggesting that shifts in circulation patterns due to climate change are likely to impact future genetic connectivity and opportunities for local adaptation, resilience and recovery from perturbations. Further development of realistic climate models is required to fully assess such potential impacts.

Genetically distinct leukemic stem cells in human CD34− acute myeloid leukemia are arrested at a hemopoietic precursor-like stage

PubMed Central

Quek, Lynn; Garnett, Catherine; Karamitros, Dimitris; Stoilova, Bilyana; Doondeea, Jessica; Kennedy, Alison; Metzner, Marlen; Ivey, Adam; Sternberg, Alexander; Hunter, Hannah; Price, Andrew; Virgo, Paul; Grimwade, David; Freeman, Sylvie; Russell, Nigel; Mead, Adam

2016-01-01

Our understanding of the perturbation of normal cellular differentiation hierarchies to create tumor-propagating stem cell populations is incomplete. In human acute myeloid leukemia (AML), current models suggest transformation creates leukemic stem cell (LSC) populations arrested at a progenitor-like stage expressing cell surface CD34. We show that in ∼25% of AML, with a distinct genetic mutation pattern where >98% of cells are CD34−, there are multiple, nonhierarchically arranged CD34+ and CD34− LSC populations. Within CD34− and CD34+ LSC–containing populations, LSC frequencies are similar; there are shared clonal structures and near-identical transcriptional signatures. CD34− LSCs have disordered global transcription profiles, but these profiles are enriched for transcriptional signatures of normal CD34− mature granulocyte–macrophage precursors, downstream of progenitors. But unlike mature precursors, LSCs express multiple normal stem cell transcriptional regulators previously implicated in LSC function. This suggests a new refined model of the relationship between LSCs and normal hemopoiesis in which the nature of genetic/epigenetic changes determines the disordered transcriptional program, resulting in LSC differentiation arrest at stages that are most like either progenitor or precursor stages of hemopoiesis. PMID:27377587

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

PubMed

Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

2017-02-07

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Taking Brief Strategic Family Therapy from Bench to Trench: Evidence Generation Across Translational Phases.

PubMed

Horigian, Viviana E; Anderson, Austen R; Szapocznik, José

2016-09-01

In this article, we review the research evidence generated over 40 years on Brief Strategic Family Therapy illustrating the NIH stages of intervention development and highlighting the translational process. Basic research (Stage 0) led to the discovery of the characteristics of the population and the nature of the problems that needed to be addressed. This step informed the selection of an intervention model that addressed the problems presented by the population, but in a fashion that was congruent with the population's culture, defined in terms of its value orientations. From this basic research, an intervention that integrated structural and strategic elements was selected and refined through testing (Stage I). The second stage of translation (Stage II) included efficacy trials of a specialized engagement module that responded to challenges to the provision of services. It also included several other efficacy trials that documented the effects of the intervention, mostly in research settings or with research therapists. Stages III/IV in the translational process led to the testing of the effectiveness of the intervention in real-world settings with community therapists and some oversight from the developer. This work revealed that an implementation/organizational intervention was required to achieve fidelity and sustainability of the intervention in real-world settings. The work is currently in Stage V in which new model development led to an implementation intervention that can ensure fidelity and sustainability. Future research will evaluate the effectiveness of the current implementation model in increasing adoption, fidelity, and long-term sustainability in real-world settings. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Projecting the success of plant restoration with population viability analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, T.J.; Bowles, M.L.; McEachern, A.K.; Brigham, C.A.; Schwartz, M.W.

2003-01-01

Conserving viable populations of plant species requires that they have high probabilities of long-term persistence within natural habitats, such as a chance of extinction in 100 years of less than 5% (Menges 1991, 1998; Brown 1994; Pavlik 1994; Chap. 1, this Vol.). For endangered and threatened species that have been severely reduces in range and whose habitats have been fragmented, important species conservation strategies may include augmenting existing populations or restoring new viable populations (Bowles and Whelan 1994; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Restoration objectives may include increasing population numbers to reduce extinction probability, deterministic manipulations to develop a staged cohort structure, or more complex restoration of a desired genetic structure to allow outcrossing or increase effective population size (DeMauro 1993, 1994; Bowles et al. 1993, 1998; Pavlik 1994; Knapp and Dyer 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). These efforts may require translocation of propagules from existing (in situ) populations, or from ex situ botanic gardens or seed storage facilities (Falk et al. 1996; Guerrant and Pavlik 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Population viability analysis (PVA) can provide a critical foundation for plant restoration, as it models demographic projections used to evaluate the probability of population persistence and links plant life history with restoration strategies. It is unknown how well artificially created populations will meet demographic modeling requirements (e.g., due to artificial cohort transitions) and few, if any, PVAs have been applied to restorations. To guide application of PVA to restored populations and to illustrate potential difficulties, we examine effects of planting different life stages, model initial population sizes needed to achieve population viability, and compare demographic characteristics between natural and restored populations. We develop and compare plant population restoration viability analysis (PRVA) case studies of two plant species listed in the USA for which federal recovery planning calls for population restoration: Cirsium pitcheri, a short-lived semelparous herb, and Asclepias meadii, a long-lived iteroparous herb.

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics

PubMed Central

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J. D.

2013-01-01

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced ‘susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed’ (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions. PMID:23676892

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.

PubMed

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J D

2013-07-06

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced 'susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed' (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Jones, Edward C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2018-04-06

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Oceanography and life history predict contrasting genetic population structure in two Antarctic fish species

PubMed Central

Young, Emma F; Belchier, Mark; Hauser, Lorenz; Horsburgh, Gavin J; Meredith, Michael P; Murphy, Eugene J; Pascoal, Sonia; Rock, Jennifer; Tysklind, Niklas; Carvalho, Gary R

2015-01-01

Understanding the key drivers of population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for the effective management of natural resources. Although several different approaches to evaluating connectivity have been used, they are rarely integrated quantitatively. Here, we use a ‘seascape genetics’ approach, by combining oceanographic modelling and microsatellite analyses, to understand the dominant influences on the population genetic structure of two Antarctic fishes with contrasting life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. The close accord between the model projections and empirical genetic structure demonstrated that passive dispersal during the planktonic early life stages is the dominant influence on patterns and extent of genetic structuring in both species. The shorter planktonic phase of C. gunnari restricts direct transport of larvae between distant populations, leading to stronger regional differentiation. By contrast, geographic distance did not affect differentiation in N. rossii, whose longer larval period promotes long-distance dispersal. Interannual variability in oceanographic flows strongly influenced the projected genetic structure, suggesting that shifts in circulation patterns due to climate change are likely to impact future genetic connectivity and opportunities for local adaptation, resilience and recovery from perturbations. Further development of realistic climate models is required to fully assess such potential impacts. PMID:26029262

Hierarchical animal movement models for population-level inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Buderman, Frances E.; Brost, Brian M.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Ivans, Jacob S.

2016-01-01

New methods for modeling animal movement based on telemetry data are developed regularly. With advances in telemetry capabilities, animal movement models are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Despite a need for population-level inference, animal movement models are still predominantly developed for individual-level inference. Most efforts to upscale the inference to the population level are either post hoc or complicated enough that only the developer can implement the model. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide an ideal platform for the development of population-level animal movement models but can be challenging to fit due to computational limitations or extensive tuning required. We propose a two-stage procedure for fitting hierarchical animal movement models to telemetry data. The two-stage approach is statistically rigorous and allows one to fit individual-level movement models separately, then resample them using a secondary MCMC algorithm. The primary advantages of the two-stage approach are that the first stage is easily parallelizable and the second stage is completely unsupervised, allowing for an automated fitting procedure in many cases. We demonstrate the two-stage procedure with two applications of animal movement models. The first application involves a spatial point process approach to modeling telemetry data, and the second involves a more complicated continuous-time discrete-space animal movement model. We fit these models to simulated data and real telemetry data arising from a population of monitored Canada lynx in Colorado, USA.

The effects of prey patchiness, predator aggregation, and mutual interference on the functional response of Phytoseiulus persimilis feeding on Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Phytoseiidae, Tetranychidae).

PubMed

Nachman, Gösta

2006-01-01

The spatial distributions of two-spotted spider mites Tetranychus urticae and their natural enemy, the phytoseiid predator Phytoseiulus persimilis, were studied on six full-grown cucumber plants. Both mite species were very patchily distributed and P. persimilis tended to aggregate on leaves with abundant prey. The effects of non-homogenous distributions and degree of spatial overlap between prey and predators on the per capita predation rate were studied by means of a stage-specific predation model that averages the predation rates over all the local populations inhabiting the individual leaves. The empirical predation rates were compared with predictions assuming random predator search and/or an even distribution of prey. The analysis clearly shows that the ability of the predators to search non-randomly increases their predation rate. On the other hand, the prey may gain if it adopts a more even distribution when its density is low and a more patchy distribution when density increases. Mutual interference between searching predators reduces the predation rate, but the effect is negligible. The stage-specific functional response model was compared with two simpler models without explicit stage structure. Both unstructured models yielded predictions that were quite similar to those of the stage-structured model.

A two-stage model of fracture of rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuksenko, V.; Tomilin, N.; Damaskinskaya, E.; Lockner, D.

1996-01-01

In this paper we propose a two-stage model of rock fracture. In the first stage, cracks or local regions of failure are uncorrelated occur randomly throughout the rock in response to loading of pre-existing flaws. As damage accumulates in the rock, there is a gradual increase in the probability that large clusters of closely spaced cracks or local failure sites will develop. Based on statistical arguments, a critical density of damage will occur where clusters of flaws become large enough to lead to larger-scale failure of the rock (stage two). While crack interaction and cooperative failure is expected to occur within clusters of closely spaced cracks, the initial development of clusters is predicted based on the random variation in pre-existing Saw populations. Thus the onset of the unstable second stage in the model can be computed from the generation of random, uncorrelated damage. The proposed model incorporates notions of the kinetic (and therefore time-dependent) nature of the strength of solids as well as the discrete hierarchic structure of rocks and the flaw populations that lead to damage accumulation. The advantage offered by this model is that its salient features are valid for fracture processes occurring over a wide range of scales including earthquake processes. A notion of the rank of fracture (fracture size) is introduced, and criteria are presented for both fracture nucleation and the transition of the failure process from one scale to another.

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

PubMed Central

Billari, Francesco C.

2015-01-01

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed. PMID:25912913

Consumer effects on the vital rates of their resource can determine the outcome of competition between consumers.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Miller, Tom E X; Inouye, Brian D

2011-10-01

Current competition theory does not adequately address the fact that competitors may affect the survival, growth, and reproductive rates of their resources. Ecologically important interactions in which consumers affect resource vital rates range from parasitism and herbivory to mutualism. We present a general model of competition that explicitly includes consumer-dependent resource vital rates. We build on the classic MacArthur model of competition for multiple resources, allowing direct comparison with expectations from established concepts of resource-use overlap. Consumers share a stage-structured resource population but may use the different stages to different extents, as they do the different independent resources in the classic model. Here, however, the stages are dynamically linked via consumer-dependent vital rates. We show that consumers' effects on resource vital rates result in two important departures from classic results. First, consumers can coexist despite identical use of resource stages, provided each competitor shifts the resource stage distribution toward stages that benefit other species. Second, consumers specializing on different resource stages can compete strongly, possibly resulting in competitive exclusion despite a lack of resource stage-use overlap. Our model framework demonstrates the critical role that consumer-dependent resource vital rates can play in competitive dynamics in a wide range of biological systems.

Association analysis of salt tolerance in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) at germination and seedling stages.

PubMed

Ravelombola, Waltram; Shi, Ainong; Weng, Yuejin; Mou, Beiquan; Motes, Dennis; Clark, John; Chen, Pengyin; Srivastava, Vibha; Qin, Jun; Dong, Lingdi; Yang, Wei; Bhattarai, Gehendra; Sugihara, Yuichi

2018-01-01

This is the first report on association analysis of salt tolerance and identification of SNP markers associated with salt tolerance in cowpea. Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) is one of the most important cultivated legumes in Africa. The worldwide annual production in cowpea dry seed is 5.4 million metric tons. However, cowpea is unfavorably affected by salinity stress at germination and seedling stages, which is exacerbated by the effects of climate change. The lack of knowledge on the genetic underlying salt tolerance in cowpea limits the establishment of a breeding strategy for developing salt-tolerant cowpea cultivars. The objectives of this study were to conduct association mapping for salt tolerance at germination and seedling stages and to identify SNP markers associated with salt tolerance in cowpea. We analyzed the salt tolerance index of 116 and 155 cowpea accessions at germination and seedling stages, respectively. A total of 1049 SNPs postulated from genotyping-by-sequencing were used for association analysis. Population structure was inferred using Structure 2.3.4; K optimal was determined using Structure Harvester. TASSEL 5, GAPIT, and FarmCPU involving three models such as single marker regression, general linear model, and mixed linear model were used for the association study. Substantial variation in salt tolerance index for germination rate, plant height reduction, fresh and dry shoot biomass reduction, foliar leaf injury, and inhibition of the first trifoliate leaf was observed. The cowpea accessions were structured into two subpopulations. Three SNPs, Scaffold87490_622, Scaffold87490_630, and C35017374_128 were highly associated with salt tolerance at germination stage. Seven SNPs, Scaffold93827_270, Scaffold68489_600, Scaffold87490_633, Scaffold87490_640, Scaffold82042_3387, C35069468_1916, and Scaffold93942_1089 were found to be associated with salt tolerance at seedling stage. The SNP markers were consistent across the three models and could be used as a tool to select salt-tolerant lines for breeding improved cowpea tolerance to salinity.

Waterfowl populations of conservation concern: learning from diverse challenges, models, and conservation strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Jane E.; Slattery, Stuart; Clark, Robert G.

2014-01-01

There are 30 threatened or endangered species of waterfowl worldwide, and several sub-populations are also threatened. Some of these species occur in North America, and others there are also of conservation concern due to declining population trends and their importance to hunters. Here we review conservation initiatives being undertaken for several of these latter species, along with conservation measures in place in Europe, to seek common themes and approaches that could be useful in developing broad conservation guidelines. While focal species may vary in their life histories, population threats and geopolitical context, most conservation efforts have used a systematic approach to understand factors limiting populations and o identify possible management or policy actions. This approach generally includes a priori identification of plausible hypotheses about population declines or status, incorporation of hypotheses into conceptual or quantitative planning models, and the use of some form of structured decision making and adaptive management to develop and implement conservation actions in the face of many uncertainties. A climate of collaboration among jurisdictions sharing these birds is important to the success of a conservation or management programme. The structured conservation approach exemplified herein provides an opportunity to involve stakeholders at all planning stages, allows for all views to be examined and incorporated into model structures, and yields a format for improved communication, cooperation and learning, which may ultimately be one of the greatest benefits of this strategy.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Estimation of mortality for stage-structured zooplankton populations: What is to be done?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, Mark D.

2012-05-01

Estimation of zooplankton mortality rates in field populations is a challenging task that some contend is inherently intractable. This paper examines several of the objections that are commonly raised to efforts to estimate mortality. We find that there are circumstances in the field where it is possible to sequentially sample the same population and to resolve biologically caused mortality, albeit with error. Precision can be improved with sampling directed by knowledge of the physical structure of the water column, combined with adequate sample replication. Intercalibration of sampling methods can make it possible to sample across the life history in a quantitative manner. Rates of development can be constrained by laboratory-based estimates of stage durations from temperature- and food-dependent functions, mesocosm studies of molting rates, or approximation of development rates from growth rates, combined with the vertical distributions of organisms in relation to food and temperature gradients. Careful design of field studies guided by the assumptions of specific estimation models can lead to satisfactory mortality estimates, but model uncertainty also needs to be quantified. We highlight additional issues requiring attention to further advance the field, including the need for linked cooperative studies of the rates and causes of mortality of co-occurring holozooplankton and ichthyoplankton.

Using a spatially structured life cycle model to assess the influence of multiple stressors on an exploited coastal-nursery-dependent population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambault, B.; Rivot, E.; Savina, M.; Le Pape, O.

2018-02-01

Exploited coastal-nursery-dependent fish species are subject to various stressors occurring at specific stages of the life cycle: climate-driven variability in hydrography determines the success of the first eggs/larvae stages; coastal nursery habitat suitability controls juvenile growth and survival; and fisheries target mostly adults. A life cycle approach was used to quantify the relative influence of these stressors on the Eastern English Channel (EEC) population of the common sole (Solea solea), a coastal-nursery-dependent flatfish population which sustains important fisheries. The common sole has a complex life cycle: after eggs hatch, larvae spend several weeks drifting in open water. Survivors go on to metamorphose into benthic fish. Juveniles spend the first two years of their life in coastal and estuarine nurseries. Close to maturation, they migrate to deeper areas, where different subpopulations supplied by different nurseries reproduce and are exploited by fisheries. A spatially structured age-and stage-based hierarchical Bayesian model integrating various aspects of ecological knowledge, data sources and expert knowledge was built to quantitatively describe this complex life cycle. The model included the low connectivity among three subpopulations in the EEC, the influence of hydrographic variability, the availability of suitable juvenile habitat and fisheries. Scenarios were designed to quantify the effects of interacting stressors on population renewal. Results emphasized the importance of coastal nursery habitat availability and quality for the population renewal. Realistic restoration scenarios of the highly degraded Seine estuary produced a two-third increase in catch potential for the adjacent subpopulation. Fisheries, however, remained the main source of population depletion. Setting fishing mortality to the maximum sustainable yield led to substantial increases in biomass (+100%) and catch (+33%) at the EEC scale. The approach also showed how climate-driven variability in hydrography is likely to interact with human pressures, e.g., overfishing increased the sensitivity to unfavourable conditions. Our results provided insights into the dynamics of numerous exploited coastal-nursery-dependent species while paving the way toward more robust advice for sustainable management of these resources.

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

PubMed

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Mathematical analysis of an age-structured population model with space-limited recruitment.

PubMed

Kamioka, Katumi

2005-11-01

In this paper, we investigate structured population model of marine invertebrate whose life stage is composed of sessile adults and pelagic larvae, such as barnacles contained in a local habitat. First we formulate the basic model as an Cauchy problem on a Banach space to discuss the existence and uniqueness of non-negative solution. Next we define the basic reproduction number R0 to formulate the invasion condition under which the larvae can successfully settle down in the completely vacant habitat. Subsequently we examine existence and stability of steady states. We show that the trivial steady state is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < or = 1, whereas it is unstable if R0 > 1. Furthermore, we show that a positive (non-trivial) steady state uniquely exists if R0 > 1 and it is locally asymptotically stable as far as absolute value of R0 - 1 is small enough.

Increased relatedness among the neighboring plants from seedling to adult stages in carnaúba wax palm.

PubMed

Vieira, F A; Sousa, R F; Fajardo, C G; Brandão, M M

2016-12-19

The objective of this study was to assess the spatial genetic structure (SGS) at different life stages (cohorts) in a remnant population (N = 101) of Copernicia prunifera in the semiarid region of northeastern Brazil. Using seven inter-simple sequence repeat molecular markers, we were able to analyze 93 loci with 100% polymorphism. Seedlings had the highest level of genetic diversity (H E = 0.411, H O = 0.599), followed by juveniles (H E = 0.394, H O = 0.579) and adults (H E = 0.267, H O = 0.427). Based on analysis of molecular variance, the majority of genetic variations were observed to occur within the life stages (93.42%) rather than between the life stages (6.58%). We found a recent reduction in the population size (bottleneck) based on the number of loci with heterozygosity excess for the two models used (infinite allele = 92 and stepwise = 91). All the life stages showed significant SGS, with positive and significant kinship values. Sp values were 0.040 for seedlings, 0.093 for juveniles, 0.156 for adults, and 0.053 for the total population. We found an increase in SGS from the seedling to adult stages, indicating that the plants were from related adult progenitors. Data from this study can be used in designing effective management and conservation strategies for the species.

Canada goose nest survival at rural wetlands in north-central Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ness, Brenna N.; Klaver, Robert W.

2016-01-01

The last comprehensive nest survival study of the breeding giant Canada goose (Branta canadensis maxima) population in Iowa, USA, was conducted >30 years ago during a period of population recovery, during which available nesting habitat consisted primarily of artificial nest structures. Currently, Iowa's resident goose population is stable and nests in a variety of habitats. We analyzed the effects of available habitat on nest survival and how nest survival rates compared with those of the expanding goose population studied previously to better understand how to maintain a sustainable Canada goose population in Iowa. We documented Canada goose nest survival at rural wetland sites in north-central Iowa. We monitored 121 nests in 2013 and 149 nests in 2014 at 5 Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) with various nesting habitats, including islands, muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) houses, and elevated nest structures. We estimated daily nest-survival rate using the nest survival model in Program MARK. Survival was influenced by year, site, stage, presence of a camera, nest age, and an interaction between nest age and stage. Nest success rates for the 28-day incubation period by site and year combination ranged from 0.10 to 0.84. Nest survival was greatest at sites with nest structures (β = 17.34). Nest survival was negatively affected by lowered water levels at Rice Lake WMA (2013 β = −0.77, nest age β = −0.07). Timing of water-level drawdowns for shallow lake restorations may influence nest survival rates.

The Risk GP Model: the standard model of prediction in medicine.

PubMed

Fuller, Jonathan; Flores, Luis J

2015-12-01

With the ascent of modern epidemiology in the Twentieth Century came a new standard model of prediction in public health and clinical medicine. In this article, we describe the structure of the model. The standard model uses epidemiological measures-most commonly, risk measures-to predict outcomes (prognosis) and effect sizes (treatment) in a patient population that can then be transformed into probabilities for individual patients. In the first step, a risk measure in a study population is generalized or extrapolated to a target population. In the second step, the risk measure is particularized or transformed to yield probabilistic information relevant to a patient from the target population. Hence, we call the approach the Risk Generalization-Particularization (Risk GP) Model. There are serious problems at both stages, especially with the extent to which the required assumptions will hold and the extent to which we have evidence for the assumptions. Given that there are other models of prediction that use different assumptions, we should not inflexibly commit ourselves to one standard model. Instead, model pluralism should be standard in medical prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of Bengali perceived stress scale among LGBT population.

PubMed

Mozumder, Muhammad Kamruzzaman

2017-08-29

Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) population encounter more stressful life circumstances compared to general population. Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) can be a useful tool for measuring their stress. However, psychometric properties of PSS have never been tested on LGBT population. This cross sectional study employed a two-stage sampling strategy to collect data from 296 LGBT participants from six divisional districts of Bangladesh. Exploratory (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were carried out on PSS 10 along with analysis of reliability and validity. EFA revealed a two-factor structure of PSS for LGBT population explaining 43.55% - 51.45% of total variance. This measurement model was supported by multiple fit indices during CFA. Acceptable Cronbach's alpha indicated internal consistency reliability and high correlations with Self Reporting Questionnaire 20 demonstrated construct validity of PSS 10 for LGBT population. This study provided evidence of satisfactory psychometric properties of Bengali PSS 10 in terms of factor structure, internal consistency and validity among LGBT population.

Betaine supplementation reduces congenital defects after prenatal alcohol exposure (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karunamuni, Ganga; Gu, Shi; Doughman, Yong Qiu; Sheehan, Megan M.; Ma, Pei; Peterson, Lindsy M.; Linask, Kersti K.; Jenkins, Michael W.; Rollins, Andrew M.; Watanabe, Michiko

2016-03-01

Over 500,000 women per year in the United States drink during pregnancy, and 1 in 5 of this population also binge drink. As high as 20-50% of live-born children with prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) present with congenital heart defects including outflow and valvuloseptal anomalies that can be life-threatening. Previously we established a model of PAE (modeling a single binge drinking episode) in the avian embryo and used optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging to assay early-stage cardiac function/structure and late-stage cardiac defects. At early stages, alcohol/ethanol-exposed embryos had smaller cardiac cushions and increased retrograde flow. At late stages, they presented with gross morphological defects in the head and chest wall, and also exhibited smaller or abnormal atrio-ventricular (AV) valves, thinner interventricular septae (IVS), and smaller vessel diameters for the aortic trunk branches. In other animal models, the methyl donor betaine (found naturally in many foods such as wheat bran, quinoa, beets and spinach) ameliorates neurobehavioral deficits associated with PAE but the effects on heart structure are unknown. In our model of PAE, betaine supplementation led to a reduction in gross structural defects and appeared to protect against certain types of cardiac defects such as ventricular septal defects and abnormal AV valvular morphology. Furthermore, vessel diameters, IVS thicknesses and mural AV leaflet volumes were normalized while the septal AV leaflet volume was increased. These findings highlight the importance of betaine and potentially methylation levels in the prevention of PAE-related birth defects which could have significant implications for public health.

Atomic structure data based on average-atom model for opacity calculations in astrophysical plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzhaskovskaya, M. B.; Nikulin, V. K.

2018-03-01

Influence of the plasmas parameters on the electron structure of ions in astrophysical plasmas is studied on the basis of the average-atom model in the local thermodynamic equilibrium approximation. The relativistic Dirac-Slater method is used for the electron density estimation. The emphasis is on the investigation of an impact of the plasmas temperature and density on the ionization stages required for calculations of the plasmas opacities. The level population distributions and level energy spectra are calculated and analyzed for all ions with 6 ≤ Z ≤ 32 occurring in astrophysical plasmas. The plasma temperature range 2 - 200 eV and the density range 2 - 100 mg/cm3 are considered. The validity of the method used is supported by good agreement between our values of ionization stages for a number of ions, from oxygen up to uranium, and results obtained earlier by various methods among which are more complicated procedures.

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, E.F.; Kraft, C.E.; Cooch, E.G.; Sullivan, P.J.

2009-01-01

Population control through harvest has the potential to reduce the abundance of nuisance and invasive species. However, demographic structure and density-dependent processes can confound removal efforts and lead to undesirable consequences, such as overcompensation (an increase in abundance in response to harvest) and instability (population cycling or chaos). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated the potential for increased mortality (such as that caused by harvest) to lead to overcompensation and instability in plant, insect, and fish populations. We developed a general population model with juvenile and adult stages to help determine the conditions under which control harvest efforts can produce unintended outcomes. Analytical and simulation analyses of the model demonstrated that the potential for overcompensation as a result of harvest was significant for species with high fecundity, even when annual stage-specific survivorship values were fairly low. Population instability as a result of harvest occurred less frequently and was only possible with harvest strategies that targeted adults when both fecundity and adult survivorship were high. We considered these results in conjunction with current literature on nuisance and invasive species to propose general guidelines for assessing the risks associated with control harvest based on life history characteristics of target populations. Our results suggest that species with high per capita fecundity (over discrete breeding periods), short juvenile stages, and fairly constant survivorship rates are most likely to respond undesirably to harvest. It is difficult to determine the extent to which overcompensation and instability could occur during real-world removal efforts, and more empirical removal studies should be undertaken to evaluate population-level responses to control harvests. Nevertheless, our results identify key issues that have been seldom acknowledged and are potentially generic across taxa. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society ot America.

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire?

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Kraft, Clifford E; Cooch, Evan G; Sullivan, Patrick J

2009-09-01

Population control through harvest has the potential to reduce the abundance of nuisance and invasive species. However, demographic structure and density-dependent processes can confound removal efforts and lead to undesirable consequences, such as overcompensation (an increase in abundance in response to harvest) and instability (population cycling or chaos). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated the potential for increased mortality (such as that caused by harvest) to lead to overcompensation and instability in plant, insect, and fish populations. We developed a general population model with juvenile and adult stages to help determine the conditions under which control harvest efforts can produce unintended outcomes. Analytical and simulation analyses of the model demonstrated that the potential for overcompensation as a result of harvest was significant for species with high fecundity, even when annual stage-specific survivorship values were fairly low. Population instability as a result of harvest occurred less frequently and was only possible with harvest strategies that targeted adults when both fecundity and adult survivorship were high. We considered these results in conjunction with current literature on nuisance and invasive species to propose general guidelines for assessing the risks associated with control harvest based on life history characteristics of target populations. Our results suggest that species with high per capita fecundity (over discrete breeding periods), short juvenile stages, and fairly constant survivorship rates are most likely to respond undesirably to harvest. It is difficult to determine the extent to which overcompensation and instability could occur during real-world removal efforts, and more empirical removal studies should be undertaken to evaluate population-level responses to control harvests. Nevertheless, our results identify key issues that have been seldom acknowledged and are potentially generic across taxa.

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

2017-08-01

We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 < 1 while remains persistent if R0 > 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

Generation separation in simple structured life cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth.

PubMed

Yamanaka, Takehiko; Nelson, William A; Uchimura, Koichiro; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2012-01-01

Population cycles have fascinated ecologists since the early nineteenth century, and the dynamics of insect populations have been central to understanding the intrinsic and extrinsic biological processes responsible for these cycles. We analyzed an extraordinary long-term data set (every 5 days for 48 years) of a tea tortrix moth (Adoxophyes honmai) that exhibits two dominant cycles: an annual cycle with a conspicuous pattern of four or five single-generation cycles superimposed on it. General theory offers several candidate mechanisms for generation cycles. To evaluate these, we construct and parameterize a series of temperature-dependent, stage-structured models that include intraspecific competition, parasitism, mate-finding Allee effects, and adult senescence, all in the context of a seasonal environment. By comparing the observed dynamics with predictions from the models, we find that even weak larval competition in the presence of seasonal temperature forcing predicts the two cycles accurately. None of the other mechanisms predicts the dynamics. Detailed dissection of the results shows that a short reproductive life span and differential winter mortality among stages are the additional life-cycle characteristics that permit the sustained cycles. Our general modeling approach is applicable to a wide range of organisms with temperature-dependent life histories and is likely to prove particularly useful in temperate systems where insect pest outbreaks are both density and temperature dependent. © 2011 by The University of Chicago.

Using narrative as a bridge: linking language processing models with real-life communication.

PubMed

Whitworth, Anne

2010-02-01

In chronic aphasia, maximizing generalization of improved language abilities from clinical tasks to everyday communication can require the same systematic planning process as the early stages of therapy, often drawing on additional areas of knowledge and successes from other clinical populations. The use of narrative structure is shown here to be a useful framework for building on the developments within sentence processing impairments in aphasia and creating a bridge to more real-life language tasks. An intervention based on narrative structure is described with two people with different language profiles and at different stages of the chronic aphasia spectrum. The insights gained in assessing language ability, underpinning intervention, and capturing therapeutic changes are demonstrated. Thieme Medical Publishers.

Significant demographic and fine-scale genetic structure in expanding and senescing populations of the terrestrial orchid Cymbidium goeringii (Orchidaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Mi Yoon; Nason, John D; Chung, Myong Gi

2011-12-01

Fine-scale genetic structure (FSGS) in plants is influenced by variation in spatial and temporal demographic processes. To determine how demographic structure and FSGS change with stages of population succession, we studied replicate expanding and senescing populations of the Asian terrestrial orchid Cymbidium goeringii. We used spatial autocorrelation methods (O-ring and kinship statistics) to quantify spatial demographic structure and FSGS in two expanding and two senescing populations, also measuring genetic diversity and inbreeding in each. All populations exhibited significant aggregation of individuals and FSGS at short spatial scales. In expanding populations, this finding was associated with high recruitment rates, suggesting restricted seed dispersal. In senescing populations, recruitment was minimal, suggesting alternative mechanisms of aggregation, perhaps including spatial associations with mycorrhizal fungi. All populations had significant evidence of genetic bottlenecks, and inbreeding levels were consistently high. Our results indicate that different successional stages can generate similar patterns of spatial demographic and genetic structure, but as a consequence of different processes. These results contrast with the only other study of senescence effects on population genetic structure in an herbaceous perennial, which found little to no FSGS in senescing populations. With the exception of populations subject to mass collection by orchid sellers, significant FSGS is characteristic of the 16 terrestrial orchid species examined to date. From a conservation perspective, this result suggests that inference of orchid population history will benefit from analyses of both FSGS and demographic structure in combination with other ecological field data.

Improving Targets for the Prevention of Drug Use Disorders: Sociodemographic Predictors of Transitions Across Drug Use Stages in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication

PubMed Central

Swendsen, Joel; Anthony, James C.; Conway, Kevin P.; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dierker, Lisa; Glantz, Meyer; He, Jianping; Kalaydjian, Amanda; Kessler, Ronald C.; Sampson, Nancy; Merikangas, Kathleen R.

2010-01-01

Objectives Models of drug use etiology and prevention require precise information concerning the expression of population-based risk factors across the continuum of drug use. However, the majority of previous epidemiologic research on this topic has not addressed transitions between specific drug stages. The present investigation examined the sociodemographic predictors of progression across six stages of drug use in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a nationally representative household survey of the U.S. population conducted between February, 2001 and April, 2003. Methods Lifetime history of opportunity to use illicit substances, initial drug use, and DSM-IV drug use disorders were collected using in-person structured diagnostic interviews. Results The median age of first opportunity to use drugs as well as drug use, abuse and dependence each occurred prior to age 20, while the median remission from abuse and dependence occurred at 26 and 30 years, respectively. Most sociodemographic variables, in particular sex and ethnicity, demonstrated highly differential associations with transitions depending on the stage examined. Conclusions The findings may partially explain the effectiveness of strategies designed to reduce drug use, abuse and dependence, and indicate that increased correspondence is needed between available epidemiologic data and existing models of etiology or prevention. PMID:18926848

Embryonic fate map of first pharyngeal arch structures in the sox10: kaede zebrafish transgenic model.

PubMed

Dougherty, Max; Kamel, George; Shubinets, Valeriy; Hickey, Graham; Grimaldi, Michael; Liao, Eric C

2012-09-01

Cranial neural crest cells follow stereotypic patterns of migration to form craniofacial structures. The zebrafish is a powerful vertebrate genetic model where transgenics with reporter proteins under the transcriptional regulation of lineage-specific promoters can be generated. Numerous studies demonstrate that the zebrafish ethmoid plate is embryologically analogous to the mammalian palate. A fate map correlating embryonic cranial neural crest to defined jaw structures would provide a useful context for the morphogenetic analysis of craniofacial development. To that end, the sox10:kaede transgenic was generated, where sox10 provides lineage restriction to the neural crest. Specific regions of neural crest were labeled at the 10-somite stage by photoconversion of the kaede reporter protein. Lineage analysis was carried out during pharyngeal development in wild-type animals, after miR140 injection, and after estradiol treatment. At the 10-somite stage, cranial neural crest cells anterior of the eye contributed to the median ethmoid plate, whereas cells medial to the eye formed the lateral ethmoid plate and trabeculae and a posterior population formed the mandible. miR-140 overexpression and estradiol inhibition of Hedgehog signaling resulted in cleft development, with failed migration of the anterior cell population to form the median ethmoid plate. The sox10:kaede transgenic line provides a useful tool for neural crest lineage analysis. These studies illustrate the advantages of the zebrafish model for application in morphogenetic studies of vertebrate craniofacial development.

Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

2016-03-01

We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

Behavioral consequences of disasters: a five-stage model of population behavior.

PubMed

Rudenstine, Sasha; Galea, Sandro

2014-12-01

We propose a model of population behavior in the aftermath of disasters. We conducted a qualitative analysis of an empirical dataset of 339 disasters throughout the world spanning from 1950 to 2005. We developed a model of population behavior that is based on 2 fundamental assumptions: (i) behavior is predictable and (ii) population behavior will progress sequentially through 5 stages from the moment the hazard begins until is complete. Understanding the progression of population behavior during a disaster can improve the efficiency and appropriateness of institutional efforts aimed at population preservation after large-scale traumatic events. Additionally, the opportunity for population-level intervention in the aftermath of such events will improve population health.

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Spatial and stage-structured population model of the American crocodile for comparison of comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Timothy W.; Slone, Daniel H.; Swain, Eric D.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Lohmann, Melinda; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.

2010-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems Science (PES) initiative to provide the ecological science required during Everglades restoration, we have integrated current regional hydrologic models with American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) research and monitoring data to create a model that assesses the potential impact of Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) efforts on the American crocodile. A list of indicators was created by the Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) component of CERP to help determine the success of interim restoration goals. The American crocodile was established as an indicator of the ecological condition of mangrove estuaries due to its reliance upon estuarine environments characterized by low salinity and adequate freshwater inflow. To gain a better understanding of the potential impact of CERP restoration efforts on the American crocodile, a spatially explicit crocodile population model has been created that has the ability to simulate the response of crocodiles to various management strategies for the South Florida ecosystem. The crocodile model uses output from the Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) model, an application of the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. TIME has the capability to link to the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), which is the primary regional tool used to assess CERP restoration scenarios. A crocodile habitat suitability index and spatial parameter maps that reflect salinity, water depth, habitat, and nesting locations are used as driving functions to construct crocodile finite rate of increase maps under different management scenarios. Local stage-structured models are integrated with a spatial landscape grid to display crocodile movement behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. Restoration efforts are expected to affect salinity levels throughout the habitat of the American crocodile. This modeling effort examines how CERP restoration alternatives will affect growth and survival rates of hatchling and juvenile crocodiles, hatchling dispersal to suitable nursery habitat, and relative abundance and distribution in response to changing salinity and water depth for all stage classes of crocodiles. The response of the American crocodile to restoration efforts will provide a quantifiable measure of restoration success. By applying the crocodile model to proposed restoration alternatives and predicting population responses, we can choose alternatives that approximate historical conditions, enhance habitat for multiple species, and identify future research needs.

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

Functional Response and Matrix Population Model of Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas, 1851) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) fed on Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as Alternative Prey.

PubMed

Botteon, V W; Neves, J A; Godoy, W A C

2017-04-01

Among the predators with high potential for use in biological control, the species of the genus Podisus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) have received special attention for laboratory rearing, since they feed on different agricultural and forestry pest insects. However, the type of diet offered to insects in the laboratory may affect the viability of populations, expressed essentially by demographic parameters such as survival and fecundity. This study assessed demographic and development aspects in experimental populations of Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas, 1851) fed on larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as an alternative prey. The demographic parameters fecundity and survival were investigated in life stages of P. nigrispinus with ecological modeling, by applying the Leslie matrix population model, producing histograms of life stages in successive time steps. The functional response of P. nigrispinus was also investigated on seven densities of C. putoria third-instar larvae at 24 and 48 h. The survival of predators that reached adulthood was 65% and the development time from egg to adult was 23.15 days. The predator showed a type III functional response for consumption of C. putoria at 24 and 48 h. The Leslie-matrix simulation of the age structure provided perpetuation of the predator population over time steps and the prey proved to be feasible for use in rearing and maintenance of P. nigrispinus in the laboratory.

Genetic variability and ontogeny predict microbiome structure in a disease-challenged montane amphibian.

PubMed

Griffiths, Sarah M; Harrison, Xavier A; Weldon, Ché; Wood, Michael D; Pretorius, Abigail; Hopkins, Kevin; Fox, Graeme; Preziosi, Richard F; Antwis, Rachael E

2018-06-25

Amphibian populations worldwide are at risk of extinction from infectious diseases, including chytridiomycosis caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Amphibian cutaneous microbiomes interact with Bd and can confer protective benefits to the host. The composition of the microbiome itself is influenced by many environment- and host-related factors. However, little is known about the interacting effects of host population structure, genetic variation and developmental stage on microbiome composition and Bd prevalence across multiple sites. Here we explore these questions in Amietia hymenopus, a disease-affected frog in southern Africa. We use microsatellite genotyping and 16S amplicon sequencing to show that the microbiome associated with tadpole mouthparts is structured spatially, and is influenced by host genotype and developmental stage. We observed strong genetic structure in host populations based on rivers and geographic distances, but this did not correspond to spatial patterns in microbiome composition. These results indicate that demographic and host genetic factors affect microbiome composition within sites, but different factors are responsible for host population structure and microbiome structure at the between-site level. Our results help to elucidate complex within- and among- population drivers of microbiome structure in amphibian populations. That there is a genetic basis to microbiome composition in amphibians could help to inform amphibian conservation efforts against infectious diseases.

Extensive Copy-Number Variation of Young Genes across Stickleback Populations

PubMed Central

Eizaguirre, Christophe; Samonte, Irene E.; Kalbe, Martin; Lenz, Tobias L.; Stoll, Monika; Bornberg-Bauer, Erich; Milinski, Manfred; Reusch, Thorsten B. H.

2014-01-01

Duplicate genes emerge as copy-number variations (CNVs) at the population level, and remain copy-number polymorphic until they are fixed or lost. The successful establishment of such structural polymorphisms in the genome plays an important role in evolution by promoting genetic diversity, complexity and innovation. To characterize the early evolutionary stages of duplicate genes and their potential adaptive benefits, we combine comparative genomics with population genomics analyses to evaluate the distribution and impact of CNVs across natural populations of an eco-genomic model, the three-spined stickleback. With whole genome sequences of 66 individuals from populations inhabiting three distinct habitats, we find that CNVs generally occur at low frequencies and are often only found in one of the 11 populations surveyed. A subset of CNVs, however, displays copy-number differentiation between populations, showing elevated within-population frequencies consistent with local adaptation. By comparing teleost genomes to identify lineage-specific genes and duplications in sticklebacks, we highlight rampant gene content differences among individuals in which over 30% of young duplicate genes are CNVs. These CNV genes are evolving rapidly at the molecular level and are enriched with functional categories associated with environmental interactions, depicting the dynamic early copy-number polymorphic stage of genes during population differentiation. PMID:25474574

The concept and use of elasticity in population viability models [Exercise 13

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Rudy M. King; Fred Van Dyke

2003-01-01

As you have seen in exercise 12, plants, such as the western prairie fringed orchid, typically have distinct life stages and complex life cycles that require the matrix analyses associated with a stage-based population model. Some statistics that can be generated from such matrix analyses can be very informative in determining which variables in the model have the...

The Barley Phytomer

PubMed Central

Forster, Brian P.; Franckowiak, Jerome D.; Lundqvist, Udda; Lyon, Jackie; Pitkethly, Ian; Thomas, William T. B.

2007-01-01

Background and Aims Morphological mutants have been useful in elucidating the phytomeric structure of plants. Recently described mutants have shed new light on the ontogeny (development of plant structures) and the phytomeric system of barley (Hordeum vulgare). Since the current model for barley phytomers was not adequate to explain the nature of some mutants, a new model is proposed. Methods New phytomer mutants were detected by visual assessment of mutant families in the Optic barley mutation grid population. This was done at various growth stages using laboratory, glasshouse and field screens. Simple explanations were adopted to account for aberrant phytomer phenotypes and a thesis for a new phytomer model was developed. Key Results and Conclusions A barley phytomer model is presented, in which the origins of vegetative and generative structures can be explained by a single repeating phytomer unit. Organs on the barley plant are divided into two classes, single or paired, depending on their origin. Paired structures are often fused together to create specific organs. The model can be applied to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and related grasses. PMID:17901062

Modelling the effects of stranding on the Atlantic salmon population in the Dale River, Norway.

PubMed

Sauterleute, Julian F; Hedger, Richard D; Hauer, Christoph; Pulg, Ulrich; Skoglund, Helge; Sundt-Hansen, Line E; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Ugedal, Ola

2016-12-15

Rapid dewatering in rivers as a consequence of hydropower operations may cause stranding of juvenile fish and have a negative impact on fish populations. We implemented stranding into an Atlantic salmon population model in order to evaluate long-term effects on the population in the Dale River, Western Norway. Furthermore, we assessed the sensitivity of the stranding model to dewatered area in comparison to biological parameters, and compared different methods for calculating wetted area, the main abiotic input parameter to the population model. Five scenarios were simulated dependent on fish life-stage, season and light level. Our simulation results showed largest negative effect on the population abundance for hydropeaking during winter daylight. Salmon smolt production had highest sensitivity to the stranding mortality of older juvenile fish, suggesting that stranding of fish at these life-stages is likely to have greater population impacts than that of earlier life-stages. Downstream retention effects on the ramping velocity were found to be negligible in the stranding model, but are suggested to be important in the context of mitigation measure design. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

2017-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

Stabilizing effect of cannibalism in a two stages population model.

PubMed

Rault, Jonathan; Benoît, Eric; Gouzé, Jean-Luc

2013-03-01

In this paper we build a prey-predator model with discrete weight structure for the predator. This model will conserve the number of individuals and the biomass and both growth and reproduction of the predator will depend on the food ingested. Moreover the model allows cannibalism which means that the predator can eat the prey but also other predators. We will focus on a simple version with two weight classes or stage (larvae and adults) and present some general mathematical results. In the last part, we will assume that the dynamics of the prey is fast compared to the predator's one to go further in the results and eventually conclude that under some conditions, cannibalism can stabilize the system: more precisely, an unstable equilibrium without cannibalism will become almost globally stable with some cannibalism. Some numerical simulations are done to illustrate this result.

[Crucial stages of embryogenesis of R. arvalis: Part 1. Linear measurements of embryonic structures].

PubMed

Severtsova, E A; Severtsov, A S

2011-01-01

Investigations of individual variability have allowed us to reveal the crucial (= nodal) stages in embryogenesis of the moor frog (Rana arvalis Nills.). These crucial stages are: the late gastrula stage (stages 18-20), the hatching stages (stages 32-33) and, apparently, early metamorphosis (stage 39). Moreover, we have found that each embryonic structure passes through its specific crucial stages. For example, stage 34 is crucial for the trait "tail width" but is internodal for all other embryonic traits. At this stage, larva passes from an attached to a free-swimming life style. We also found considerable differences between the different frog populations in the the level of developmental variability. These differences were associated with internodal developmental stages.

The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

PubMed

Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

2013-11-01

1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. 0.1°C per year). The Euler-Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in rm when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on rm may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time-scales and under slow warming regimes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

2015-10-01

Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, Adam; Pearl, Christopher; Adams, Michael J.; Peterson, James T.

2017-01-01

Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010–2011 to 0.86 in 2012–2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but related, data sets has an advantage of being able to estimate complex ecological relationships across multiple life stages, offering a modeling framework that accommodates uncertainty, enforces parsimony, and ensures all model parameters can be confronted with monitoring data.

A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions.

PubMed

Duarte, Adam; Pearl, Christopher A; Adams, Michael J; Peterson, James T

2017-09-01

Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010-2011 to 0.86 in 2012-2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but related, data sets has an advantage of being able to estimate complex ecological relationships across multiple life stages, offering a modeling framework that accommodates uncertainty, enforces parsimony, and ensures all model parameters can be confronted with monitoring data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Are tree ontogenetic structure and allometric relationship independent of vegetation formation type? A case study with Cordia oncocalyx in the Brazilian caatinga

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silveira, Andréa P.; Martins, Fernando R.; Araújo, Francisca S.

2012-08-01

In temperate and tropical rainforests, ontogenetic structure and allometry during tree ontogeny are often associated with light gradients. Light is not considered a limiting resource in deciduous thorny woodland (DTW), but establishment and growth occur during a short rainy period, when the canopy is fully leaved and light in the understory may be modified. Our aim was to investigate whether the light gradient in DTW and the biomechanical limitations of tree growth would be enough to produce an ontogenetic structure and allometric growth similar to rainforest canopy trees. We investigated the ontogenetic stages and diameter-height relationship of Cordia oncocalyx (Boraginaceae), a dominant canopy tree of the DTW of semiarid northeastern Brazil. We tagged, measured and classified the ontogenetic stages of 2.895 individuals in a 1 ha area (5°6'58.1″S and 40°52'19.4″W). In the rainy season only 4.7% of the light falling on the canopy reached the ground. Initial ontogenetic stages, mainly infant (50.9%) and seedling (42.1%), were predominant in the population, with the remaining 7% distributed among juvenile, immature, virginile and reproductive. The ontogenetic structure was similar to that of rainforest tree species, but the population formed both permanent seed and infant banks in response to long dry periods and erratic rainy spells. Like many other Boraginaceae tree species in tropical rainforests, C. oncocalyx has a Prévost architectural model, but allometric growth was quite different from rainforest trees. C. oncocalyx invested slightly more in diameter at first, then in height and finally invested greatly in diameter and attained an asymptotic height. The continued high investment in diameter growth at late stages and the asymptotic height point to low tree density and more frequent xylem embolism as the main drivers of tree allometric shape in DTW. This indicates that tree ontogenetic structure and allometric relationships depend on vegetation formation type.

Development and application of a density dependent matrix ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ranging along the Atlantic coast from US Florida to the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Matrix population models are useful tools for ecological risk assessment because they integrate effects across the life cycle, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for many generations in the future. We developed a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish by modifying a model developed for fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) that has proved to be extremely useful, e.g. to incorporate data from laboratory studies and project effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals. We developed a size-structured model (as opposed to one that is based upon developmental stages or age class structure) so that we could readily incorporate output from a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, currently under development. Due to a lack of sufficient data to accurately define killifish responses to density dependence, we tested a number of scenarios realistic for other fish species in order to demonstrate the outcome of including this ecologically important factor. We applied the model using published data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, and compared our results to those using

Identifying critical life stage transitions for biological control of long-lived perennial Vincetoxicum species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic matrix modeling of invasive plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions for targeted disruption in order to cause population decline. This approach can provide quantitative estimates of reductions in select vital rates needed to reduce population growt...

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate.

PubMed Central

Lima, M.; Stenseth, N. C.; Yoccoz, N. G.; Jaksic, F. M.

2001-01-01

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate. PMID:11571053

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates.

PubMed

Schwindt, Adam R; Winkelman, Dana L

2016-09-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L(-1) and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF POPULATION GROWTH TO SURVIVAL, GROWTH AND REPRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

Matrix population models are often used to extrapolate from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to population-level effects. Demographic elasticity analysis of a matrix model allows an evaluation of the relative sensitivity of population growth rate ...

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Creating a stage-based deterministic PVA model - the western prairie fringed orchid [Exercise 12

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Rudy M. King; Fred Van Dyke

2003-01-01

Contemporary efforts to conserve populations and species often employ population viability analysis (PVA), a specific application of population modeling that estimates the effects of environmental and demographic processes on population growth rates. These models can also be used to estimate probabilities that a population will fall below a certain level. This...

Rapid recovery of genetic diversity of dogwhelk (Nucella lapillus L.) populations after local extinction and recolonization contradicts predictions from life-history characteristics.

PubMed

Colson, I; Hughes, R N

2004-08-01

The dogwhelk Nucella lapillus is a predatory marine gastropod populating North Atlantic rocky shores. As with many other gastropod species, N. lapillus was affected by tributyltin (TBT) pollution during the 1970s and 1980s, when local populations became extinct. After a partial ban on TBT in the United Kingdom in 1987, vacant sites have been recolonized. N. lapillus lacks a planktonic larval stage and is therefore expected to have limited dispersal ability. Relatively fast recolonization of some sites, however, contradicts this assumption. We compared levels of genetic diversity and genetic structuring between recolonized sites and sites that showed continuous population at three localities across the British Isles. No significant genetic effects of extinction/recolonization events were observed in SW Scotland and NE England. In SW England we observed a decrease in genetic diversity and an increase in genetic structure in recolonized populations. This last result could be an artefact, however, due to the superposition of other local factors influencing the genetic structuring of dogwhelk populations. We conclude that recolonization of vacant sites was accomplished by a relatively high number of individuals originating from several source populations (the 'migrant-pool' model of recolonization), implying that movements are more widespread than expected on the basis of development mode alone. Comparison with published data on genetic structure of marine organisms with contrasted larval dispersal supports this hypothesis. Our results also stress the importance of local factors (geographical or ecological) in determining genetic structure of dogwhelk populations. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Simulating the evolution of glyphosate resistance in grains farming in northern Australia.

PubMed

Thornby, David F; Walker, Steve R

2009-09-01

The evolution of resistance to herbicides is a substantial problem in contemporary agriculture. Solutions to this problem generally consist of the use of practices to control the resistant population once it evolves, and/or to institute preventative measures before populations become resistant. Herbicide resistance evolves in populations over years or decades, so predicting the effectiveness of preventative strategies in particular relies on computational modelling approaches. While models of herbicide resistance already exist, none deals with the complex regional variability in the northern Australian sub-tropical grains farming region. For this reason, a new computer model was developed. The model consists of an age- and stage-structured population model of weeds, with an existing crop model used to simulate plant growth and competition, and extensions to the crop model added to simulate seed bank ecology and population genetics factors. Using awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona) as a test case, the model was used to investigate the likely rate of evolution under conditions expected to produce high selection pressure. Simulating continuous summer fallows with glyphosate used as the only means of weed control resulted in predicted resistant weed populations after approx. 15 years. Validation of the model against the paddock history for the first real-world glyphosate-resistant awnless barnyard grass population shows that the model predicted resistance evolution to within a few years of the real situation. This validation work shows that empirical validation of herbicide resistance models is problematic. However, the model simulates the complexities of sub-tropical grains farming in Australia well, and can be used to investigate, generate and improve glyphosate resistance prevention strategies.

The Theory of Planned Behavior within the Stages of the Transtheoretical Model: Latent Structural Modeling of Stage-Specific Prediction Patterns in Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lippke, Sonia; Nigg, Claudio R.; Maddock, Jay E.

2007-01-01

This is the first study to test whether the stages of change of the transtheoretical model are qualitatively different through exploring discontinuity patterns in theory of planned behavior (TPB) variables using latent multigroup structural equation modeling (MSEM) with AMOS. Discontinuity patterns in terms of latent means and prediction patterns…

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Begg, Graham S; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2012-01-01

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Understanding climate impacts on recruitment and spatial dynamics of Atlantic cod in the Gulf of Maine: Integration of observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runge, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Adrienne I.; Churchill, James H.; Kerr, Lisa A.; Morrison, John R.; Beardsley, Robert C.; Berlinsky, David L.; Chen, Changsheng; Cadrin, Steven X.; Davis, Cabell S.; Ford, Kathryn H.; Grabowski, Jonathan H.; Howell, W. Huntting; Ji, Rubao; Jones, Rebecca J.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Record, Nicholas R.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Sherwood, Graham D.; Tallack, Shelly M. L.; Townsend, David W.

2010-10-01

We put forward a combined observing and modeling strategy for evaluating effects of environmental forcing on the dynamics of spatially structured cod populations spawning in the western Gulf of Maine. Recent work indicates at least two genetically differentiated complexes in this region: a late spring spawning, coastal population centered in Ipswich Bay, and a population that spawns in winter inshore and on nearshore banks in the Gulf of Maine and off southern New England. The two populations likely differ in trophic interactions and in physiological and behavioral responses to different winter and spring environments. Coupled physical-biological modeling has advanced to the point where within-decade forecasting of environmental conditions for recruitment to each of the two populations is feasible. However, the modeling needs to be supported by hydrographic, primary production and zooplankton data collected by buoys, and by data from remote sensing and fixed station sampling. Forecasts of environmentally driven dispersal and growth of planktonic early life stages, combined with an understanding of possible population-specific predator fields, usage of coastal habitat by juveniles and adult resident and migratory patterns, can be used to develop scenarios for spatially explicit population responses to multiple forcings, including climate change, anthropogenic impacts on nearshore juvenile habitat, connectivity among populations and management interventions such as regional fisheries closures.

Teacher Reporting Attitudes Scale (TRAS): confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses with a Malaysian sample.

PubMed

Choo, Wan Yuen; Walsh, Kerryann; Chinna, Karuthan; Tey, Nai Peng

2013-01-01

The Teacher Reporting Attitude Scale (TRAS) is a newly developed tool to assess teachers' attitudes toward reporting child abuse and neglect. This article reports on an investigation of the factor structure and psychometric properties of the short form Malay version of the TRAS. A self-report cross-sectional survey was conducted with 667 teachers in 14 randomly selected schools in Selangor state, Malaysia. Analyses were conducted in a 3-stage process using both confirmatory (stages 1 and 3) and exploratory factor analyses (stage 2) to test, modify, and confirm the underlying factor structure of the TRAS in a non-Western teacher sample. Confirmatory factor analysis did not support a 3-factor model previously reported in the original TRAS study. Exploratory factor analysis revealed an 8-item, 4-factor structure. Further confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated appropriateness of the 4-factor structure. Reliability estimates for the four factors-commitment, value, concern, and confidence-were moderate. The modified short form TRAS (Malay version) has potential to be used as a simple tool for relatively quick assessment of teachers' attitudes toward reporting child abuse and neglect. Cross-cultural differences in attitudes toward reporting may exist and the transferability of newly developed instruments to other populations should be evaluated.

Lifetime Incidence of CKD Stages 3–5 in the United States

PubMed Central

Grams, Morgan E.; Chow, Eric K.H.; Segev, Dorry L.; Coresh, Josef

2013-01-01

Background Lifetime risk estimates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) can motivate preventative behaviors at the individual level and forecast disease burden and health care utilization at the population level. Study Design Markov Monte Carlo model simulation study. Setting & Population Current U.S. black and white population. Model, Perspective, & Timeframe Markov models simulating kidney disease development, using an individual perspective and lifetime horizon. Outcomes Age-, sex- and race-specific residual lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+ (eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73m2), 3b+ (eGFR<45 ml/min/1.73 m2), and 4+ (eGFR<30 ml/min/1.73m2), and end stage renal disease (ESRD). Measurements State transition probabilities of developing CKD and of dying prior to its development were modeled using: 1) mortality rates from National Vital Statistics Report, 2) mortality risk estimates from a 2-million person meta-analysis, and 3) CKD prevalence from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Incidence, prevalence, and mortality related to ESRD were supplied by the US Renal Disease System. Results At birth, the overall lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+, 3b+, 4+, and ESRD were 59.1%, 33.6%, 11.5%, and 3.6%, respectively. Women experienced greater CKD risk yet lower ESRD risk than men; blacks of both sexes had markedly higher CKD stage 4+ and ESRD risk (lifetime risks for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively: 53.6%, 64.9%, 51.8%, and 63.6% [CKD stage 3a+]; 29.0%, 36.7%, 33.7%, and 40.2% [CKD stage 3b+]; 9.3%, 11.4%, 15.8%, and 18.5% [CKD stage 4+]; and 3.3%, 2.2%, 8.5%, and 7.8% [ESRD]). Risk of CKD increased with age, with approximately one-half of CKD stage 3a+ cases developing after 70 years of age. Limitations CKD incidence estimates were modeled from prevalence in the U.S. population. Conclusions In the U.S., the lifetime risk of developing CKD stage 3a+ is high, underscoring the importance of primary prevention and effective therapy to reduce CKD-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:23566637

Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing the response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies.

PubMed

Radchuk, Viktoriia; Turlure, Camille; Schtickzelle, Nicolas

2013-01-01

As ectothermic organisms, butterflies have widely been used as models to explore the predicted impacts of climate change. However, most studies explore only one life stage; to our best knowledge, none have integrated the impact of temperature on the vital rates of all life stages for a species of conservation concern. Besides, most population viability analysis models for butterflies are based on yearly population growth rate, precluding the implementation and assessment of important climate change scenarios, where climate change occurs mainly, or differently, during some seasons. Here, we used a combination of laboratory and field experiments to quantify the impact of temperature on all life stages of a vulnerable glacial relict butterfly. Next, we integrated these impacts into an overall population response using a deterministic periodic matrix model and explored the impact of several climate change scenarios. Temperature positively affected egg, pre-diapause larva and pupal survival, and the number of eggs laid by a female; only the survival of overwintering larva was negatively affected by an increase in temperature. Despite the positive impact of warming on many life stages, population viability was reduced under all scenarios, with predictions of much shorter times to extinction than under the baseline (current temperature situation) scenario. Indeed, model predictions were the most sensitive to changes in survival of overwintering larva, the only stage negatively affected by warming. A proper consideration of every stage of the life cycle is important when designing conservation guidelines in the light of climate change. This is in line with the resource-based habitat view, which explicitly refers to the habitat as a collection of resources needed for all life stages of the species. We, therefore, encourage adopting a resource-based habitat view for population viability analysis and development of conservation guidelines for butterflies, and more generally, other organisms. Life stages that are cryptic or difficult to study should not be forsaken as they may be key determinants in the overall response to climate change, as we found with overwintering Boloria eunomia larvae. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Populations of the Minor α-Conformation in AcGXGNH2 and the α-Helical Nucleation Propensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yanjun; He, Liu; Zhang, Wenwen; Hu, Jingjing; Shi, Zhengshuang

2016-06-01

Intrinsic backbone conformational preferences of different amino acids are important for understanding the local structure of unfolded protein chains. Recent evidence suggests α-structure is relatively minor among three major backbone conformations for unfolded proteins. The α-helices are the dominant structures in many proteins. For these proteins, how could the α-structures occur from the least in unfolded to the most in folded states? Populations of the minor α-conformation in model peptides provide vital information. Reliable determination of populations of the α-conformers in these peptides that exist in multiple equilibriums of different conformations remains a challenge. Combined analyses on data from AcGXPNH2 and AcGXGNH2 peptides allow us to derive the populations of PII, β and α in AcGXGNH2. Our results show that on average residue X in AcGXGNH2 adopt PII, β, and α 44.7%, 44.5% and 10.8% of time, respectively. The contents of α-conformations for different amino acids define an α-helix nucleation propensity scale. With derived PII, β and α-contents, we can construct a free energy-conformation diagram on each AcGXGNH2 in aqueous solution for the three major backbone conformations. Our results would have broad implications on early-stage events of protein folding.

Genome-Wide Association Mapping Reveals Multiple QTLs Governing Tolerance Response for Seedling Stage Chilling Stress in Indica Rice.

PubMed

Pandit, Elssa; Tasleem, Swaleha; Barik, Saumya R; Mohanty, Durga P; Nayak, Deepak K; Mohanty, Shakti P; Das, Sujata; Pradhan, Sharat K

2017-01-01

Rice crop is sensitive to cold stress at seedling stage. A panel of population representing 304 shortlisted germplasm lines was studied for seedling stage chilling tolerance in indica rice. Six phenotypic classes were exposed to six low temperature stress regimes under control phenotyping facility to investigate response pattern. A panel of 66 genotypes representing all phenotypic classes was used for ensuring genetic diversity, population structure and association mapping for the trait using 58 simple sequence repeat (SSR) and 2 direct trait linked markers. A moderate level of genetic diversity was detected in the panel population for the trait. Deviation of Hardy-Weinberg's expectation was detected in the studied population using Wright's F statistic. The panel showed 30% variation among population and 70% among individuals. The entire population was categorized into three sub-populations through STRUCTURE analysis. This revealed tolerance for the trait had a common primary ancestor for each sub-population with few admix individuals. The panel population showed the presence of many QTLs for cold stress tolerance in the individuals representing like genome-wide expression of the trait. Nineteen SSR markers were significantly associated at chilling stress of 8°C to 4°C for 7-21 days duration. Thus, the primers linked to the seedling stage cold tolerance QTLs namely qCTS9, qCTS-2, qCTS6.1, qSCT2, qSCT11, qSCT1a, qCTS-3.1, qCTS11.1, qCTS12.1, qCTS-1b, and CTB2 need to be pyramided for development of strongly chilling tolerant variety.

Genome-Wide Association Mapping Reveals Multiple QTLs Governing Tolerance Response for Seedling Stage Chilling Stress in Indica Rice

PubMed Central

Pandit, Elssa; Tasleem, Swaleha; Barik, Saumya R.; Mohanty, Durga P.; Nayak, Deepak K.; Mohanty, Shakti P.; Das, Sujata; Pradhan, Sharat K.

2017-01-01

Rice crop is sensitive to cold stress at seedling stage. A panel of population representing 304 shortlisted germplasm lines was studied for seedling stage chilling tolerance in indica rice. Six phenotypic classes were exposed to six low temperature stress regimes under control phenotyping facility to investigate response pattern. A panel of 66 genotypes representing all phenotypic classes was used for ensuring genetic diversity, population structure and association mapping for the trait using 58 simple sequence repeat (SSR) and 2 direct trait linked markers. A moderate level of genetic diversity was detected in the panel population for the trait. Deviation of Hardy-Weinberg's expectation was detected in the studied population using Wright's F statistic. The panel showed 30% variation among population and 70% among individuals. The entire population was categorized into three sub-populations through STRUCTURE analysis. This revealed tolerance for the trait had a common primary ancestor for each sub-population with few admix individuals. The panel population showed the presence of many QTLs for cold stress tolerance in the individuals representing like genome-wide expression of the trait. Nineteen SSR markers were significantly associated at chilling stress of 8°C to 4°C for 7–21 days duration. Thus, the primers linked to the seedling stage cold tolerance QTLs namely qCTS9, qCTS-2, qCTS6.1, qSCT2, qSCT11, qSCT1a, qCTS-3.1, qCTS11.1, qCTS12.1, qCTS-1b, and CTB2 need to be pyramided for development of strongly chilling tolerant variety. PMID:28487705

Application of Transtheoretical (Stages of Change) Model in Studying Attitudes and Behaviors of Adults with Hearing Loss: A Descriptive Review.

PubMed

Manchaiah, Vinaya; Hernandez, Barbara Michiels; Beck, Douglas L

2018-06-01

Health Behavior Change (HBC) refers to facilitating changes to habits and/or behaviors related to health. There are a number of models/theories of HBC, which provide a structured framework to better understand the HBCs of individuals. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM, aka "the Stages of Change" model) is an integrative model used to conceptualize the process of intentional behavior change and is applied to a variety of behaviors, populations, and settings. In the last few years, use of TTM by the profession of audiology has been increasing. This descriptive literature review was aimed at identifying and presenting a summary of research studies, which use TTM to study the attitudes and behaviors of adults with hearing loss. A literature review was conducted. This review included 13 empirical studies. A literature review was conducted using the EBSCOhost and included the databases Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO. The review suggests TTM is useful in studying the attitudes and behaviors of adults with hearing loss. There are positive associations between stages of change and help-seeking, intervention uptake, and hearing rehabilitation outcome (i.e., benefit and satisfaction). However, associations with intervention decisions and intervention use were not evident. It appears help-seeking, intervention uptake, and successful outcomes are usually displayed in people in the later stages of change as those with greater hearing loss are often in the later stages of change. Understanding the readiness toward help-seeking and uptake of intervention in people with hearing loss based on TTM may help clinicians develop more focused management strategies. However, additional longitudinal and interventional studies are needed to further test the predictive validity of the stages of change model. American Academy of Audiology.

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2016-01-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVIY OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE TO REPRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in using population models in environmental assessments. Matrix population models represent a valuable tool for extrapolating from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to effects on finite populati...

Using particle dispersal models to assist in the conservation and recovery of the overexploited native oyster (Ostrea edulis) in an enclosed sea lough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, David; Kregting, Louise; Elsäßer, Björn; Kennedy, Richard; Roberts, Dai

2016-02-01

Oyster populations around the world have seen catastrophic decline which has been largely attributed to overexploitation, disease and pollution. While considerable effort and resources have been implemented into restoring these important environmental engineers, the success of oyster populations is often limited by poor understanding of site-specific dispersal patterns of propagules. Water-borne transport is a key factor controlling or regulating the dispersal of the larval stage of benthic marine invertebrates which have limited mobility. The distribution of the native oyster Ostrea edulis in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, together with their densities and population structure at subtidal and intertidal sites has been documented at irregular intervals between 1997 and 2013. This paper revisits this historical data and considers whether different prevailing environmental conditions can be used to explain the distribution, densities and population structure of O. edulis in Strangford Lough. The approach adopted involved comparing predictive 2D hydrodynamic models coupled with particle tracking to simulate the dispersal of oyster larvae with historical and recent field records of the distribution of both subtidal and intertidal, populations since 1995. Results from the models support the hypothesis that commercial stocks of O. edulis introduced into Strangford Lough in the 1990s resulted in the re-establishment of wild populations of oysters in the Northern Basin which in turn provided a potential source of propagules for subtidal populations. These results highlight that strategic site selection (while inadvertent in the case of the introduced population in 1995) for the re-introduction of important shellfish species can significantly accelerate their recovery and restoration.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Cognitive and psychological reactions of the general population three months after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.

PubMed

Kyutoku, Yasushi; Tada, Ryoko; Umeyama, Takahiko; Harada, Kenji; Kikuchi, Senichiro; Watanabe, Eiju; Liegey-Dougall, Angela; Dan, Ippeita

2012-01-01

The largest earthquake on record in Japan (magnitude 9.0) occurred on March 11, 2011, and the subsequent tsunami devastated the Pacific coast of Northern Japan. These further triggered the Fukushima I nuclear power plant accidents. Such a hugely complex disaster inevitably has negative psychological effects on general populations as well as on the direct victims. While previous disaster studies enrolled descriptive approaches focusing on direct victims, the structure of the psychological adjustment process of people from the general population has remained uncertain. The current study attempted to establish a path model that sufficiently reflects the early psychological adaptation process of the general population to large-scale natural disasters. Participants from the primary disaster area (n = 1083) and other areas (n = 2372) voluntarily participated in an online questionnaire study. By constructing path models using a structural equation model procedure (SEM), we examined the structural relationship among psychological constructs known related to disasters. As post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTS) were significantly more present in people in the primarily affected area than in those in secondary- or non-affected areas, the path models were constructed for the primary victims. The parsimoniously depicted model with the best fit was achieved for the psychological-adjustment centered model with quality of life (QoL) as a final outcome. The paths to QoL via negative routes (from negative cognitive appraisal, PTS, and general stress) were dominant, suggesting the importance of clinical intervention for reducing negative cognitive appraisal, and for caring for general stress and PTS to maintain QoL at an early stage of psychological adaptation to a disaster. The model also depicted the presence of a positive route where positive cognitive appraisal facilitates post-traumatic growth (PTG) to achieve a higher QoL, suggesting the potential importance of positive psychological preventive care for unexpected natural disasters.

Cognitive and Psychological Reactions of the General Population Three Months After the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

PubMed Central

Kyutoku, Yasushi; Tada, Ryoko; Umeyama, Takahiko; Harada, Kenji; Kikuchi, Senichiro; Watanabe, Eiju; Liegey-Dougall, Angela; Dan, Ippeita

2012-01-01

Background The largest earthquake on record in Japan (magnitude 9.0) occurred on March 11, 2011, and the subsequent tsunami devastated the Pacific coast of Northern Japan. These further triggered the Fukushima I nuclear power plant accidents. Such a hugely complex disaster inevitably has negative psychological effects on general populations as well as on the direct victims. While previous disaster studies enrolled descriptive approaches focusing on direct victims, the structure of the psychological adjustment process of people from the general population has remained uncertain. The current study attempted to establish a path model that sufficiently reflects the early psychological adaptation process of the general population to large-scale natural disasters. Methods and Findings Participants from the primary disaster area (n = 1083) and other areas (n = 2372) voluntarily participated in an online questionnaire study. By constructing path models using a structural equation model procedure (SEM), we examined the structural relationship among psychological constructs known related to disasters. As post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTS) were significantly more present in people in the primarily affected area than in those in secondary- or non-affected areas, the path models were constructed for the primary victims. The parsimoniously depicted model with the best fit was achieved for the psychological-adjustment centered model with quality of life (QoL) as a final outcome. Conclusion The paths to QoL via negative routes (from negative cognitive appraisal, PTS, and general stress) were dominant, suggesting the importance of clinical intervention for reducing negative cognitive appraisal, and for caring for general stress and PTS to maintain QoL at an early stage of psychological adaptation to a disaster. The model also depicted the presence of a positive route where positive cognitive appraisal facilitates post-traumatic growth (PTG) to achieve a higher QoL, suggesting the potential importance of positive psychological preventive care for unexpected natural disasters. PMID:22347421

Mathematical model of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience in the within-host dynamics between a Plasmodium parasite and the immune system.

PubMed

Yan, Yi; Adam, Brian; Galinski, Mary; C Kissinger, Jessica; Moreno, Alberto; Gutierrez, Juan B

2015-12-01

We developed a coupled age-structured partial differential equation model to capture the disease dynamics during blood-stage malaria. The addition of age structure for the parasite population, with respect to previous models, allows us to better characterize the interaction between the malaria parasite and red blood cells during infection. Here we prove that the system we propose is well-posed and there exist at least two global states. We further demonstrate that the numerical simulation of the system coincides with clinically observed outcomes of primary and secondary malaria infection. The well-posedness of this system guarantees that the behavior of the model remains smooth, bounded, and continuously dependent on initial conditions; calibration with clinical data will constrain domains of parameters and variables to physiological ranges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating the evolution of glyphosate resistance in grains farming in northern Australia

PubMed Central

Thornby, David F.; Walker, Steve R.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims The evolution of resistance to herbicides is a substantial problem in contemporary agriculture. Solutions to this problem generally consist of the use of practices to control the resistant population once it evolves, and/or to institute preventative measures before populations become resistant. Herbicide resistance evolves in populations over years or decades, so predicting the effectiveness of preventative strategies in particular relies on computational modelling approaches. While models of herbicide resistance already exist, none deals with the complex regional variability in the northern Australian sub-tropical grains farming region. For this reason, a new computer model was developed. Methods The model consists of an age- and stage-structured population model of weeds, with an existing crop model used to simulate plant growth and competition, and extensions to the crop model added to simulate seed bank ecology and population genetics factors. Using awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona) as a test case, the model was used to investigate the likely rate of evolution under conditions expected to produce high selection pressure. Key Results Simulating continuous summer fallows with glyphosate used as the only means of weed control resulted in predicted resistant weed populations after approx. 15 years. Validation of the model against the paddock history for the first real-world glyphosate-resistant awnless barnyard grass population shows that the model predicted resistance evolution to within a few years of the real situation. Conclusions This validation work shows that empirical validation of herbicide resistance models is problematic. However, the model simulates the complexities of sub-tropical grains farming in Australia well, and can be used to investigate, generate and improve glyphosate resistance prevention strategies. PMID:19567415

Coupling Developmental Physiology, Photoperiod, and Temperature to Model Phenology and Dynamics of an Invasive Heteropteran, Halyomorpha halys

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Anne L.; Chen, Shi; Fleischer, Shelby J.

2016-01-01

We developed an agent-based stochastic model expressing stage-specific phenology and population dynamics for an insect species across geographic regions. We used the invasive pentatomid, Halyomorpha halys, as the model organism because gaps in knowledge exist regarding its developmental physiology, it is expanding its global distribution, and it is of significant economic importance. Model predictions were compared against field observations over 3 years, and the parameter set that enables the largest population growth was applied to eight locations over 10 years, capturing the variation in temperature and photoperiod profiles of significant horticultural crop production that could be affected by H. halys in the US. As a species that overwinters as adults, critical photoperiod significantly impacted H. halys seasonality and population size through its influence on diapause termination and induction, and this may impact other insects with similar life-histories. Photoperiod and temperature interactions influenced life stage synchrony among years, resulting in an order of magnitude difference, for occurrence of key life stages. At all locations, there was a high degree of overlap among life stages and generation. Although all populations produced F2 adults and thus could be characterized as bivoltine, the size and relative contribution of each generation to the total, or overwintering, adult population also varied dramatically. In about half of the years in two locations (Geneva, NY and Salem, OR), F1 adults comprised half or more of the adult population at the end of the year. Yearly degree-day accumulation was a significant covariate influencing variation in population growth, and average maximum adult population size varied by 10-fold among locations. Average final population growth was positive (Asheville, NC, Homestead, FL, Davis, CA) or marginal (Geneva, NY, Bridgeton, NJ, Salem, OR, Riverside, CA), but was negative in one location (Wenatchee WA) due to cooler temperatures coupled with timing of vitellogenesis of F2 adults. Years of the highest population growth in the mid-Atlantic site coincided with years of highest crop damage reports. We discuss these results with respect to assumptions and critical knowledge gaps, the ability to realistically model phenology of species with strongly overlapping life stage and which diapause as adults. PMID:27242539

Dynamics and management of stage-structured fish stocks.

PubMed

Meng, Xinzhu; Lundström, Niklas L P; Bodin, Mats; Brännström, Åke

2013-01-01

With increasing fishing pressures having brought several stocks to the brink of collapse, there is a need for developing efficient harvesting methods that account for factors beyond merely yield or profit. We consider the dynamics and management of a stage-structured fish stock. Our work is based on a consumer-resource model which De Roos et al. (in Theor. Popul. Biol. 73, 47-62, 2008) have derived as an approximation of a physiologically-structured counterpart. First, we rigorously prove the existence of steady states in both models, that the models share the same steady states, and that there exists at most one positive steady state. Furthermore, we carry out numerical investigations which suggest that a steady state is globally stable if it is locally stable. Second, we consider multiobjective harvesting strategies which account for yield, profit, and the recovery potential of the fish stock. The recovery potential is a measure of how quickly a fish stock can recover from a major disturbance and serves as an indication of the extinction risk associated with a harvesting strategy. Our analysis reveals that a small reduction in yield or profit allows for a disproportional increase in recovery potential. We also show that there exists a harvesting strategy with yield close to the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and profit close to that associated with the maximum economic yield (MEY). In offering a good compromise between MSY and MEY, we believe that this harvesting strategy is preferable in most instances. Third, we consider the impact of harvesting on population size structure and analytically determine the most and least harmful harvesting strategies. We conclude that the most harmful harvesting strategy consists of harvesting both adults and juveniles, while harvesting only adults is the least harmful strategy. Finally, we find that a high percentage of juvenile biomass indicates elevated extinction risk and might therefore serve as an early-warning signal of impending stock collapse.

Social Marketing, Stages of Change, and Public Health Smoking Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diehr, Paula; Hannon, Peggy; Pizacani, Barbara; Forehand, Mark; Meischke, Hendrika; Curry, Susan; Martin, Diane P.; Weaver, Marcia R.; Harris, Jeffrey

2011-01-01

As a "thought experiment," the authors used a modified stages of change model for smoking to define homogeneous segments within various hypothetical populations. The authors then estimated the population effect of public health interventions that targeted the different segments. Under most assumptions, interventions that emphasized primary and…

A Model of Moral Stages

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reed, Don Collins

2008-01-01

The argument of this paper focuses on the relationship between cognitive structures and structures of interaction. It contends that there is still a place in moral development theory and research for a concept of moral stages. The thesis, in short, is that moral stages are not structures of thought. They are structures of action encoded in…

The structure of disks around intermediate-mass young stars from mid-infrared interferometry. Evidence for a population of group II disks with gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menu, J.; van Boekel, R.; Henning, Th.; Leinert, Ch.; Waelkens, C.; Waters, L. B. F. M.

2015-09-01

Context. The disks around Herbig Ae/Be stars are commonly divided into group I and group II based on their far-infrared spectral energy distribution, and the common interpretation for that is flared and flat disks. Our understanding of the evolution of these disks is rapidly changing. Recent observations suggest that many flaring disks have gaps, whereas flat disks are thought to be gapless. Aims: The different groups of objects can be expected to have different structural signatures in high-angular-resolution data, related to gaps, dust settling, and flaring. We aim to use such data to gain new insight into disk structure and evolution. Methods: Over the past 10 years, the MIDI instrument on the Very Large Telescope Interferometer has collected observations of several tens of protoplanetary disks. We modeled the large set of observations with simple geometric models and compared the characteristic sizes among the different objects. A population of radiative-transfer models was synthesized for interpreting the mid-infrared signatures. Results: Objects with similar luminosities show very different disk sizes in the mid-infrared. This may point to an intrinsic diversity or could also hint at different evolutionary stages of the disks. Restricting this to the young objects of intermediate mass, we confirm that most group I disks are in agreement with being transitional (i.e., they have gaps). We find that several group II objects have mid-infrared sizes and colors that overlap with sources classified as group I, transition disks. This suggests that these sources have gaps, which has been demonstrated for a subset of them. This may point to an intermediate population between gapless and transition disks. Conclusions: Flat disks with gaps are most likely descendants of flat disks without gaps. Potentially related to the formation of massive bodies, gaps may therefore even develop in disks in a far stage of grain growth and settling. The evolutionary implications of this new population could be twofold. Either gapped flat disks form a separate population of evolved disks or some of them may evolve further into flaring disks with large gaps. The latter transformation may be governed by the interaction with a massive planet, carving a large gap and dynamically exciting the grain population in the disk. Appendices A and B are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling of the Desert Iguana (Dipsosaurus dorsalis, Baird & Girard 1852) in the Baja California Peninsula.

PubMed

Valdivia-Carrillo, Tania; García-De León, Francisco J; Blázquez, Ma Carmen; Gutiérrez-Flores, Carina; González Zamorano, Patricia

2017-09-01

Understanding the factors that explain the patterns of genetic structure or phylogeographic breaks at an intraspecific level is key to inferring the mechanisms of population differentiation in its early stages. These topics have been well studied in the Baja California region, with vicariance and the dispersal ability of individuals being the prevailing hypothesis for phylogeographic breaks. In this study, we evaluated the phylogeographic patterns in the desert iguana (Dipsosaurus dorsalis), a species with a recent history in the region and spatial variation in life history traits. We analyzed a total of 307 individuals collected throughout 19 localities across the Baja California Peninsula with 15 microsatellite DNA markers. Our data reveal the existence of 3 geographically discrete genetic populations with moderate gene flow and an isolation-by-distance pattern presumably produced by the occurrence of a refugium in the Cape region during the Pleistocene Last Glacial Maximum. Bayesian methods and ecological niche modeling were used to assess the relationship between population genetic structure and present and past climatic preferences of the desert iguana. We found that the present climatic heterogeneity of the Baja California Peninsula has a marked influence on the population genetic structure of the species, suggesting that there are alternative explanations besides vicariance. The information obtained in this study provides data allowing a better understanding of how historical population processes in the Baja California Peninsula can be understood from an ecological perspective. © The American Genetic Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

3D characterization of EMT cell density in developing cardiac cushions using optical coherence tomography (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Siyao; Gu, Shi; Zhao, Xiaowei; Liu, Yehe; Jenkins, Michael W.; Watanabe, Michiko; Rollins, Andrew M.

2017-02-01

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defect, affecting between 4 and 75 per 1,000 live births depending on the inclusion criteria. Many of these defects can be traced to defects of cardiac cushions, critical structures during development that serve as precursors to many structures in the mature heart, including the atrial and ventricular septa, and all four sets of cardiac valves. Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is the process through which cardiac cushions become populated with cells. Altered cushion size or altered cushion cell density has been linked to many forms of CHDs, however, quantitation of cell density in the complex 3D cushion structure poses a significant challenge to conventional histology. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a technique capable of 3D imaging of the developing heart, but typically lacks the resolution to differentiate individual cells. Our goal is to develop an algorithm to quantitatively characterize the density of cells in the developing cushion using 3D OCT imaging. First, in a heart volume, the atrioventricular (AV) cushions were manually segmented. Next, all voxel values in the region of interest were pooled together to generate a histogram. Finally, two populations of voxels were classified using either K-means classification, or a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The voxel population with higher values represents cells in the cushion. To test the algorithm, we imaged and evaluated avian embryonic hearts at looping stages. As expected, our result suggested that the cell density increases with developmental stages. We validated the technique against scoring by expert readers.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Whole parasite blood stage malaria vaccines: a convergence of evidence.

PubMed

McCarthy, James S; Good, Michael F

2010-01-01

There is a growing realization of the limitations of recombinant protein-based malaria vaccines. This, coupled with a better understanding of the protective immunity to malaria, both in animal models and in naturally exposed human populations and experimentally infected volunteers, as well as the increased capacity to manipulate parasites provides new impetus to evaluate whole blood stage parasite approaches to malaria vaccine development. In this review previous studies in rodents and primates of whole killed and attenuated blood stage vaccines, and recent work on the effect of genetically attenuated parasites on immunity in rodent models of blood stage immunity are discussed. The relationship between these findings and what is now known about protective immunity in human populations, specifically against the blood stages of the parasite lifecycle is discussed and recent findings from human experimental infection are be reviewed. Finally, the prospect for and impediments to the development whole blood stage parasites are reviewed.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

Epigenetic differentiation persists after male gametogenesis in natural populations of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae).

PubMed

Herrera, Carlos M; Medrano, Mónica; Bazaga, Pilar

2013-01-01

Despite the importance of assessing the stability of epigenetic variation in non-model organisms living in real-world scenarios, no studies have been conducted on the transgenerational persistence of epigenetic structure in wild plant populations. This gap in knowledge is hindering progress in the interpretation of natural epigenetic variation. By applying the methylation-sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphism (MSAP) technique to paired plant-pollen (i.e., sporophyte-male gametophyte) DNA samples, and then comparing methylation patterns and epigenetic population differentiation in sporophytes and their descendant gametophytes, we investigated transgenerational constancy of epigenetic structure in three populations of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae). Single-locus and multilocus analyses revealed extensive epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations. Locus-by-locus comparisons of methylation status in individual sporophytes and descendant gametophytes showed that ~75% of epigenetic markers persisted unchanged through gametogenesis. In spite of some epigenetic reorganization taking place during gametogenesis, multilocus epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations was preserved in the subsequent gametophyte stage. In addition to illustrating the efficacy of applying the MSAP technique to paired plant-pollen DNA samples to investigate epigenetic gametic inheritance in wild plants, this paper suggests that epigenetic differentiation between adult plant populations of H. foetidus is likely to persist across generations.

Epigenetic Differentiation Persists after Male Gametogenesis in Natural Populations of the Perennial Herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae)

PubMed Central

Herrera, Carlos M.; Medrano, Mónica; Bazaga, Pilar

2013-01-01

Despite the importance of assessing the stability of epigenetic variation in non-model organisms living in real-world scenarios, no studies have been conducted on the transgenerational persistence of epigenetic structure in wild plant populations. This gap in knowledge is hindering progress in the interpretation of natural epigenetic variation. By applying the methylation-sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphism (MSAP) technique to paired plant-pollen (i.e., sporophyte-male gametophyte) DNA samples, and then comparing methylation patterns and epigenetic population differentiation in sporophytes and their descendant gametophytes, we investigated transgenerational constancy of epigenetic structure in three populations of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae). Single-locus and multilocus analyses revealed extensive epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations. Locus-by-locus comparisons of methylation status in individual sporophytes and descendant gametophytes showed that ∼75% of epigenetic markers persisted unchanged through gametogenesis. In spite of some epigenetic reorganization taking place during gametogenesis, multilocus epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations was preserved in the subsequent gametophyte stage. In addition to illustrating the efficacy of applying the MSAP technique to paired plant-pollen DNA samples to investigate epigenetic gametic inheritance in wild plants, this paper suggests that epigenetic differentiation between adult plant populations of H. foetidus is likely to persist across generations. PMID:23936245

High-resolution modeling of antibody structures by a combination of bioinformatics, expert knowledge, and molecular simulations.

PubMed

Shirai, Hiroki; Ikeda, Kazuyoshi; Yamashita, Kazuo; Tsuchiya, Yuko; Sarmiento, Jamica; Liang, Shide; Morokata, Tatsuaki; Mizuguchi, Kenji; Higo, Junichi; Standley, Daron M; Nakamura, Haruki

2014-08-01

In the second antibody modeling assessment, we used a semiautomated template-based structure modeling approach for 11 blinded antibody variable region (Fv) targets. The structural modeling method involved several steps, including template selection for framework and canonical structures of complementary determining regions (CDRs), homology modeling, energy minimization, and expert inspection. The submitted models for Fv modeling in Stage 1 had the lowest average backbone root mean square deviation (RMSD) (1.06 Å). Comparison to crystal structures showed the most accurate Fv models were generated for 4 out of 11 targets. We found that the successful modeling in Stage 1 mainly was due to expert-guided template selection for CDRs, especially for CDR-H3, based on our previously proposed empirical method (H3-rules) and the use of position specific scoring matrix-based scoring. Loop refinement using fragment assembly and multicanonical molecular dynamics (McMD) was applied to CDR-H3 loop modeling in Stage 2. Fragment assembly and McMD produced putative structural ensembles with low free energy values that were scored based on the OSCAR all-atom force field and conformation density in principal component analysis space, respectively, as well as the degree of consensus between the two sampling methods. The quality of 8 out of 10 targets improved as compared with Stage 1. For 4 out of 10 Stage-2 targets, our method generated top-scoring models with RMSD values of less than 1 Å. In this article, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our approach as well as possible directions for improvement to generate better predictions in the future. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A STAGE-BASED POPULATION MODEL FOR BAY SCALLOPS (ARGOPECTEN IRRADIANS) AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POPULATION-LEVEL EFFECTS OF HABITAT ATLERATION.

EPA Science Inventory

Bay scallops (Argopecten irradians) inhabit shallow subtidal habitats along the Atlantic coast of the United States and require settlement substrates, such as submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), for their early juvenile stages. The short lifespan of bay scallops (1-2 yr) coupled...

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

PubMed Central

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P.; McMahon, Clive R.; Hindell, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model’s ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals. PMID:29596456

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Modelling population dynamics and response to management options in the poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae (Acari: Dermanyssidae).

PubMed

Huber, K; Zenner, L; Bicout, D J

2011-02-28

The poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae is a major pest and widespread ectoparasite of laying hens and other domestic and wild birds. Under optimal conditions, D. gallinae can complete its lifecycle in less than 10 days, leading to rapid proliferation of populations in poultry systems. This paper focuses on developing a theoretical model framework to describe the population dynamics of D. gallinae. This model is then used to test the efficacy and residual effect of different control options for managing D. gallinae. As well as allowing comparison between treatment options, the model also allows comparison of treatment efficacies to different D. gallinae life stages. Three different means for controlling D. gallinae populations were subjected to the model using computer simulations: mechanical cleaning (killing once at a given time all accessible population stages), sanitary clearance (starving the mite population for a given duration, e.g. between flocks) and acaricide treatment (killing a proportion of nymphs and adults during the persistence of the treatment). Simulations showed that mechanical cleaning and sanitary clearance alone could not eradicate the model D. gallinae population, although these methods did delay population establishment. In contrast, the complete eradication of the model D. gallinae population was achieved by several successive acaricide treatments in close succession, even when a relatively low treatment level was used. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of public awareness campaigns for the early detection of non-small-cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Hinde, S; McKenna, C; Whyte, S; Peake, M D; Callister, M E J; Rogers, T; Sculpher, M

2015-06-30

Survival rates in lung cancer in England are significantly lower than in many similar countries. A range of Be Clear on Cancer (BCOC) campaigns have been conducted targeting lung cancer and found to improve the proportion of diagnoses at the early stage of disease. This paper considers the cost-effectiveness of such campaigns, evaluating the effect of both the regional and national BCOC campaigns on the stage distribution of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at diagnosis. A natural history model of NSCLC was developed using incidence data, data elicited from clinical experts and model calibration techniques. This structure is used to consider the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted survival implications of the early awareness campaigns. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of additional costs per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained are presented. Two scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the role of changes in the 'worried-well' population and the route of diagnosis that might occur as a result of the campaigns. The base-case theoretical model found the regional and national early awareness campaigns to be associated with QALY gains of 289 and 178 QALYs and ICERs of £13 660 and £18 173 per QALY gained, respectively. The scenarios found that increases in the 'worried-well' population may impact the cost-effectiveness conclusions. Subject to the available evidence, the analysis suggests that early awareness campaigns in lung cancer have the potential to be cost-effective. However, significant additional research is required to address many of the limitations of this study. In addition, the estimated natural history model presents previously unavailable estimates of the prevalence and rate of disease progression in the undiagnosed population.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of public awareness campaigns for the early detection of non-small-cell lung cancer

PubMed Central

Hinde, S; McKenna, C; Whyte, S; Peake, M D; Callister, M E J; Rogers, T; Sculpher, M

2015-01-01

Background: Survival rates in lung cancer in England are significantly lower than in many similar countries. A range of Be Clear on Cancer (BCOC) campaigns have been conducted targeting lung cancer and found to improve the proportion of diagnoses at the early stage of disease. This paper considers the cost-effectiveness of such campaigns, evaluating the effect of both the regional and national BCOC campaigns on the stage distribution of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at diagnosis. Methods: A natural history model of NSCLC was developed using incidence data, data elicited from clinical experts and model calibration techniques. This structure is used to consider the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted survival implications of the early awareness campaigns. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of additional costs per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained are presented. Two scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the role of changes in the ‘worried-well' population and the route of diagnosis that might occur as a result of the campaigns. Results: The base-case theoretical model found the regional and national early awareness campaigns to be associated with QALY gains of 289 and 178 QALYs and ICERs of £13 660 and £18 173 per QALY gained, respectively. The scenarios found that increases in the ‘worried-well' population may impact the cost-effectiveness conclusions. Conclusions: Subject to the available evidence, the analysis suggests that early awareness campaigns in lung cancer have the potential to be cost-effective. However, significant additional research is required to address many of the limitations of this study. In addition, the estimated natural history model presents previously unavailable estimates of the prevalence and rate of disease progression in the undiagnosed population. PMID:26010412

Evidence of sustained populations of a small reef fish on artificial structures. Does depth affect production on artificial reefs?

PubMed

Fowler, A M; Booth, D J

2012-03-01

The length frequencies and age structures of resident Pseudanthias rubrizonatus (n = 407), a small protogynous serranid, were measured at four isolated artificial structures on the continental shelf of north-western Australia between June and August 2008, to determine whether these structures supported full (complete size and age-structured) populations of this species. The artificial structures were located in depths between 82 and 135 m, and growth rates of juveniles and adults, and body condition of adults, were compared among structures to determine the effect of depth on potential production. All life-history stages, including recently settled juveniles, females and terminal males, of P. rubrizonatus were caught, ranging in standard length (L(s)) from 16·9 to 96·5 mm. Presumed ages estimated from whole and sectioned otoliths ranged between 22 days and 5 years, and parameter ±s.e. estimates of the von Bertalanffy growth model were L(∞) = 152 ± 34 mm, k = 0·15(±0·05) and t(0) = -1·15(±0·15). Estimated annual growth rates were similar between shallow and deep artificial structures; however, otolith lengths and recent growth of juveniles differed among individual structures, irrespective of depth. The artificial structures therefore sustained full populations of P. rubrizonatus, from recently settled juveniles through to adults; however, confirmation of the maximum age attainable for the species is required from natural populations. Depth placement of artificial reefs may not affect the production of fish species with naturally wide depth ranges. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Updated Three-Stage Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Mulligan, Connie J.; Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.

2008-01-01

Background We re-assess support for our three stage model for the peopling of the Americas in light of a recent report that identified nine non-Native American mitochondrial genome sequences that should not have been included in our initial analysis. Removal of these sequences results in the elimination of an early (i.e. ∼40,000 years ago) expansion signal we had proposed for the proto-Amerind population. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plot analysis of a new dataset of Native American mitochondrial coding genomes confirms the absence of an early expansion signal for the proto-Amerind population and allows us to reduce the variation around our estimate of the New World founder population size. In addition, genetic variants that define New World founder haplogroups are used to estimate the amount of time required between divergence of proto-Amerinds from the Asian gene pool and expansion into the New World. Conclusions/Significance The period of population isolation required for the generation of New World mitochondrial founder haplogroup-defining genetic variants makes the existence of three stages of colonization a logical conclusion. Thus, our three stage model remains an important and useful working hypothesis for researchers interested in the peopling of the Americas and the processes of colonization. PMID:18797500

Experimental and operational modal analysis of a laboratory scale model of a tripod support structure.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luczak, M. M.; Mucchi, E.; Telega, J.

2016-09-01

The goal of the research is to develop a vibration-based procedure for the identification of structural failures in a laboratory scale model of a tripod supporting structure of an offshore wind turbine. In particular, this paper presents an experimental campaign on the scale model tested in two stages. Stage one encompassed the model tripod structure tested in air. The second stage was done in water. The tripod model structure allows to investigate the propagation of a circumferential representative crack of a cylindrical upper brace. The in-water test configuration included the tower with three bladed rotor. The response of the structure to the different waves loads were measured with accelerometers. Experimental and operational modal analysis was applied to identify the dynamic properties of the investigated scale model for intact and damaged state with different excitations and wave patterns. A comprehensive test matrix allows to assess the differences in estimated modal parameters due to damage or as potentially introduced by nonlinear structural response. The presented technique proves to be effective for detecting and assessing the presence of representative cracks.

Fluid-Structure Interaction Modeling of the Reefed Stages of the Orion Spacecraft Main Parachutes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boswell, Cody W.

Spacecraft parachutes are typically used in multiple stages, starting with a "reefed" stage where a cable along the parachute skirt constrains the diameter to be less than the diameter in the subsequent stage. After a certain period of time during the descent, the cable is cut and the parachute "disreefs" (i.e. expands) to the next stage. Computing the parachute shape at the reefed stage and fluid-structure interaction (FSI) modeling during the disreefing involve computational challenges beyond those we have in FSI modeling of fully-open spacecraft parachutes. These additional challenges are created by the increased geometric complexities and by the rapid changes in the parachute geometry. The computational challenges are further increased because of the added geometric porosity of the latest design, where the "windows" created by the removal of panels and the wider gaps created by the removal of sails compound the geometric and flow complexity. Orion spacecraft main parachutes will have three stages, with computation of the Stage 1 shape and FSI modeling of disreefing from Stage 1 to Stage 2 being the most challenging. We present the special modeling techniques we devised to address the computational challenges and the results from the computations carried out. We also present the methods we devised to calculate for a parachute gore the radius of curvature in the circumferential direction. The curvature values are intended for quick and simple engineering analysis in estimating the structural stresses.

Development and Validation of a Cross-Cultural Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Survey Instrument for Chronic Kidney Disease in a Swahili-Speaking Population

PubMed Central

Stanifer, John W.; Karia, Francis; Voils, Corrine I.; Turner, Elizabeth L.; Maro, Venance; Shimbi, Dionis; Kilawe, Humphrey; Lazaro, Matayo; Patel, Uptal D.

2015-01-01

Introduction Non-communicable diseases are a growing global burden, and structured surveys can identify critical gaps to address this epidemic. In sub-Saharan Africa, there are very few well-tested survey instruments measuring population attributes related to non-communicable diseases. To meet this need, we have developed and validated the first instrument evaluating knowledge, attitudes and practices pertaining to chronic kidney disease in a Swahili-speaking population. Methods and Results Between December 2013 and June 2014, we conducted a four-stage, mixed-methods study among adults from the general population of northern Tanzania. In stage 1, the survey instrument was constructed in English by a group of cross-cultural experts from multiple disciplines and through content analysis of focus group discussions to ensure local significance. Following translation, in stage 2, we piloted the survey through cognitive and structured interviews, and in stage 3, in order to obtain initial evidence of reliability and construct validity, we recruited and then administered the instrument to a random sample of 606 adults. In stage 4, we conducted analyses to establish test-retest reliability and known-groups validity which was informed by thematic analysis of the qualitative data in stages 1 and 2. The final version consisted of 25 items divided into three conceptual domains: knowledge, attitudes and practices. Each item demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability with established content and construct validity. Conclusions We have developed a reliable and valid cross-cultural survey instrument designed to measure knowledge, attitudes and practices of chronic kidney disease in a Swahili-speaking population of Northern Tanzania. This instrument may be valuable for addressing gaps in non-communicable diseases care by understanding preferences regarding healthcare, formulating educational initiatives, and directing development of chronic disease management programs that incorporate chronic kidney disease across sub-Saharan Africa. PMID:25811781

Life tables as tools of evaluation and quality control for arthropod mass production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Life tables, as a basic concept, are descriptions of survival potential at various ages or stages. Understanding critical life stages of arthropod development and their influence on the population structure is of great importance for arthropod rearing systems. Another important advantage of a life t...

Analysis of a model of gambiense sleeping sickness in humans and cattle.

PubMed

Ndondo, A M; Munganga, J M W; Mwambakana, J N; Saad-Roy, C M; van den Driessche, P; Walo, R O

2016-01-01

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) and Nagana in cattle, commonly called sleeping sickness, is caused by trypanosome protozoa transmitted by bites of infected tsetse flies. We present a deterministic model for the transmission of HAT caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense between human hosts, cattle hosts and tsetse flies. The model takes into account the growth of the tsetse fly, from its larval stage to the adult stage. Disease in the tsetse fly population is modeled by three compartments, and both the human and cattle populations are modeled by four compartments incorporating the two stages of HAT. We provide a rigorous derivation of the basic reproduction number R0. For R0 < 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, thus HAT dies out; whereas (assuming no return to susceptibility) for R0 >1, HAT persists. Elasticity indices for R0 with respect to different parameters are calculated with baseline parameter values appropriate for HAT in West Africa; indicating parameters that are important for control strategies to bring R0 below 1. Numerical simulations with R0 > 1 show values for the infected populations at the endemic equilibrium, and indicate that with certain parameter values, HAT could not persist in the human population in the absence of cattle.

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

2012-09-01

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

In vitro ovine articular chondrocyte proliferation: experiments and modelling.

PubMed

Mancuso, L; Liuzzo, M I; Fadda, S; Pisu, M; Cincotti, A; Arras, M; La Nasa, G; Concas, A; Cao, G

2010-06-01

This study focuses on analysis of in vitro cultures of chondrocytes from ovine articular cartilage. Isolated cells were seeded in Petri dishes, then expanded to confluence and phenotypically characterized by flow cytometry. The sigmoidal temporal profile of total counts was obtained by classic haemocytometry and corresponding cell size distributions were measured electronically using a Coulter Counter. A mathematical model recently proposed (1) was adopted for quantitative interpretation of these experimental data. The model is based on a 1-D (that is, mass-structured), single-staged population balance approach capable of taking into account contact inhibition at confluence. The model's parameters were determined by fitting measured total cell counts and size distributions. Model reliability was verified by predicting cell proliferation counts and corresponding size distributions at culture times longer than those used when tuning the model's parameters. It was found that adoption of cell mass as the intrinsic characteristic of a growing chondrocyte population enables sigmoidal temporal profiles of total counts in the Petri dish, as well as cell size distributions at 'balanced growth', to be adequately predicted.

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

PROJECTING POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF PURPLE SEA URCHINS TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an ecological risk assessment case study at the Portsmouth naval Shipyard (PNS), Kittery, Maine, USA, the population level effects of lead exposure to purple sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, were investigated using a stage-classified matrix population model. The model d...

Modelling Vaccination Strategies against Rift Valley Fever in Livestock in Kenya.

PubMed

Gachohi, John M; Njenga, M Kariuki; Kitala, Philip; Bett, Bernard

2016-12-01

The impacts of vaccination on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) have not been evaluated. We have developed a RVFV transmission model comprising two hosts-cattle as a separate host and sheep and goats as one combined host (herein after referred to as sheep)-and two vectors-Aedes species (spp) and Culex spp-and used it to predict the impacts of: (1) reactive vaccination implemented at various levels of coverage at pre-determined time points, (2) targeted vaccination involving either of the two host species, and (3) a periodic vaccination implemented biannually or annually before an outbreak. The model comprises coupled vector and host modules where the dynamics of vectors and hosts are described using a system of difference equations. Vector populations are structured into egg, larva, pupa and adult stages and the latter stage is further categorized into three infection categories: susceptible, exposed and infectious mosquitoes. The survival rates of the immature stages (egg, larva and pupa) are dependent on rainfall densities extracted from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) for a Rift Valley fever (RVF) endemic site in Kenya over a period of 1827 days. The host populations are structured into four age classes comprising young, weaners, yearlings and adults and four infection categories including susceptible, exposed, infectious, and immune categories. The model reproduces the 2006/2007 RVF outbreak reported in empirical surveys in the target area and other seasonal transmission events that are perceived to occur during the wet seasons. Mass reactive vaccination strategies greatly reduce the potential for a major outbreak. The results also suggest that the effectiveness of vaccination can be enhanced by increasing the vaccination coverage, targeting vaccination on cattle given that this species plays a major role in the transmission of the virus, and using both periodic and reactive vaccination strategies. Reactive vaccination can be effective in mitigating the impacts of RVF outbreaks but practically, it is not always possible to have this measure implemented satisfactorily due to the rapid onset and evolution of RVF epidemics. This analysis demonstrates that both periodic and reactive vaccination ought to be used strategically to effectively control the disease.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richard, A. L.; Crawford, H. L.; Fallon, P.

The “Island of Inversion” at N~20 for the neon, sodium, and magnesium isotopes has long been an area of interest both experimentally and theoretically due to the subtle competition between 0p-0h and np-nh configurations leading to deformed shapes. However, the presence of rotational band structures, which are fingerprints of deformed shapes, have only recently been observed in this region. In this work, we report on a measurement of the low-lying level structure of 33Mg populated by a two-stage projectile fragmentation reaction and studied with GRETINA. The experimental level energies, ground state magnetic moment, intrinsic quadrupole moment, and γ-ray intensities showmore » good agreement with the strong-coupling limit of a rotational model.« less

Princeton_TIGRESS 2.0: High refinement consistency and net gains through support vector machines and molecular dynamics in double-blind predictions during the CASP11 experiment.

PubMed

Khoury, George A; Smadbeck, James; Kieslich, Chris A; Koskosidis, Alexandra J; Guzman, Yannis A; Tamamis, Phanourios; Floudas, Christodoulos A

2017-06-01

Protein structure refinement is the challenging problem of operating on any protein structure prediction to improve its accuracy with respect to the native structure in a blind fashion. Although many approaches have been developed and tested during the last four CASP experiments, a majority of the methods continue to degrade models rather than improve them. Princeton_TIGRESS (Khoury et al., Proteins 2014;82:794-814) was developed previously and utilizes separate sampling and selection stages involving Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations and classification using an SVM predictor. The initial implementation was shown to consistently refine protein structures 76% of the time in our own internal benchmarking on CASP 7-10 targets. In this work, we improved the sampling and selection stages and tested the method in blind predictions during CASP11. We added a decomposition of physics-based and hybrid energy functions, as well as a coordinate-free representation of the protein structure through distance-binning Cα-Cα distances to capture fine-grained movements. We performed parameter estimation to optimize the adjustable SVM parameters to maximize precision while balancing sensitivity and specificity across all cross-validated data sets, finding enrichment in our ability to select models from the populations of similar decoys generated for targets in CASPs 7-10. The MD stage was enhanced such that larger structures could be further refined. Among refinement methods that are currently implemented as web-servers, Princeton_TIGRESS 2.0 demonstrated the most consistent and most substantial net refinement in blind predictions during CASP11. The enhanced refinement protocol Princeton_TIGRESS 2.0 is freely available as a web server at http://atlas.engr.tamu.edu/refinement/. Proteins 2017; 85:1078-1098. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Amphibian population genetics in agricultural landscapes: does viniculture drive the population structuring of the European common frog (Rana temporaria)?

PubMed

Lenhardt, Patrick P; Brühl, Carsten A; Leeb, Christoph; Theissinger, Kathrin

2017-01-01

Amphibian populations have been declining globally over the past decades. The intensification of agriculture, habitat loss, fragmentation of populations and toxic substances in the environment are considered as driving factors for this decline. Today, about 50% of the area of Germany is used for agriculture and is inhabited by a diverse variety of 20 amphibian species. Of these, 19 are exhibiting declining populations. Due to the protection status of native amphibian species, it is important to evaluate the effect of land use and associated stressors (such as road mortality and pesticide toxicity) on the genetic population structure of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. We investigated the effects of viniculture on the genetic differentiation of European common frog ( Rana temporaria ) populations in Southern Palatinate (Germany). We analyzed microsatellite data of ten loci from ten breeding pond populations located within viniculture landscape and in the adjacent forest block and compared these results with a previously developed landscape permeability model. We tested for significant correlation of genetic population differentiation and landscape elements, including land use as well as roads and their associated traffic intensity, to explain the genetic structure in the study area. Genetic differentiation among forest populations was significantly lower (median pairwise F ST  = 0.0041 at 5.39 km to 0.0159 at 9.40 km distance) than between viniculture populations (median pairwise F ST  = 0.0215 at 2.34 km to 0.0987 at 2.39 km distance). Our analyses rejected isolation by distance based on roads and associated traffic intensity as the sole explanation of the genetic differentiation and suggest that the viniculture landscape has to be considered as a limiting barrier for R. temporaria migration, partially confirming the isolation of breeding ponds predicted by the landscape permeability model. Therefore, arable land may act as a sink habitat, inhibiting genetic exchange and causing genetic differentiation of pond populations in agricultural areas. In viniculture, pesticides could be a driving factor for the observed genetic impoverishment, since pesticides are more frequently applied than any other management measure and can be highly toxic for terrestrial life stages of amphibians.

Generalized fish life-cycle poplulation model and computer program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeAngelis, D. L.; Van Winkle, W.; Christensen, S. W.

1978-03-01

A generalized fish life-cycle population model and computer program have been prepared to evaluate the long-term effect of changes in mortality in age class 0. The general question concerns what happens to a fishery when density-independent sources of mortality are introduced that act on age class 0, particularly entrainment and impingement at power plants. This paper discusses the model formulation and computer program, including sample results. The population model consists of a system of difference equations involving age-dependent fecundity and survival. The fecundity for each age class is assumed to be a function of both the fraction of females sexuallymore » mature and the weight of females as they enter each age class. Natural mortality for age classes 1 and older is assumed to be independent of population size. Fishing mortality is assumed to vary with the number and weight of fish available to the fishery. Age class 0 is divided into six life stages. The probability of survival for age class 0 is estimated considering both density-independent mortality (natural and power plant) and density-dependent mortality for each life stage. Two types of density-dependent mortality are included. These are cannibalism of each life stage by older age classes and intra-life-stage competition.« less

Preoutbreak dynamics of a recently established invasive herbivore: roles of natural enemies and habitat structure in stage-specific performance of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) populations in northeastern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Rebecca Hoffman Gray; Craig G. Lorimer; Patrick C. Tobin; Kenneth F. Raffa

2008-01-01

A major challenge to addressing biological invasions is that the need for emergency responses often precludes opportunities to analyze the dynamics between initial establishment and population eruption. Thus, a broader understanding of underlying processes and management opportunities is often lacking. We examined the effects of habitat structure and natural enemies on...

Time in tortoiseshell: a bomb radiocarbon-validated chronology in sea turtle scutes.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Andrews, Allen H; Jones, T Todd; Murakawa, Shawn K K; Hagemann, Molly E

2016-01-13

Some of the most basic questions of sea turtle life history are also the most elusive. Many uncertainties surround lifespan, growth rates, maturity and spatial structure, yet these are critical factors in assessing population status. Here we examine the keratinized hard tissues of the hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) carapace and use bomb radiocarbon dating to estimate growth and maturity. Scutes have an established dietary record, yet the large keratin deposits of hawksbills evoke a reliable chronology. We sectioned, polished and imaged posterior marginal scutes from 36 individual hawksbills representing all life stages, several Pacific populations and spanning eight decades. We counted the apparent growth lines, microsampled along growth contours and calibrated Δ(14)C values to reference coral series. We fit von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) models to the results, producing a range of age estimates for each turtle. We find Hawaii hawksbills deposit eight growth lines annually (range 5-14), with model ensembles producing a somatic growth parameter (k) of 0.13 (range 0.1-0.2) and first breeding at 29 years (range 23-36). Recent bomb radiocarbon values also suggest declining trophic status. Together, our results may reflect long-term changes in the benthic community structure of Hawaii reefs, and possibly shed light on the critical population status for Hawaii hawksbills. © 2016 The Author(s).

Time in tortoiseshell: a bomb radiocarbon-validated chronology in sea turtle scutes

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Andrews, Allen H.; Jones, T. Todd; Murakawa, Shawn K. K.; Hagemann, Molly E.

2016-01-01

Some of the most basic questions of sea turtle life history are also the most elusive. Many uncertainties surround lifespan, growth rates, maturity and spatial structure, yet these are critical factors in assessing population status. Here we examine the keratinized hard tissues of the hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) carapace and use bomb radiocarbon dating to estimate growth and maturity. Scutes have an established dietary record, yet the large keratin deposits of hawksbills evoke a reliable chronology. We sectioned, polished and imaged posterior marginal scutes from 36 individual hawksbills representing all life stages, several Pacific populations and spanning eight decades. We counted the apparent growth lines, microsampled along growth contours and calibrated Δ14C values to reference coral series. We fit von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) models to the results, producing a range of age estimates for each turtle. We find Hawaii hawksbills deposit eight growth lines annually (range 5–14), with model ensembles producing a somatic growth parameter (k) of 0.13 (range 0.1–0.2) and first breeding at 29 years (range 23–36). Recent bomb radiocarbon values also suggest declining trophic status. Together, our results may reflect long-term changes in the benthic community structure of Hawaii reefs, and possibly shed light on the critical population status for Hawaii hawksbills. PMID:26740617

Exploration of the utility of ancestry informative markers for genetic association studies of African Americans with type 2 diabetes and end stage renal disease.

PubMed

Keene, Keith L; Mychaleckyj, Josyf C; Leak, Tennille S; Smith, Shelly G; Perlegas, Peter S; Divers, Jasmin; Langefeld, Carl D; Freedman, Barry I; Bowden, Donald W; Sale, Michèle M

2008-09-01

Admixture and population stratification are major concerns in genetic association studies. We wished to evaluate the impact of admixture using empirically derived data from genetic association studies of African Americans (AA) with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Seventy ancestry informative markers (AIMs) were genotyped in 577 AA with T2DM-ESRD, 596 AA controls, 44 Yoruba Nigerian (YRI) and 39 European American (EA) controls. Genotypic data and association results for eight T2DM candidate gene studies in our AA population were included. Ancestral estimates were calculated using FRAPPE, ADMIXMAP and STRUCTURE for all AA samples, using varying numbers of AIMs (25, 50, and 70). Ancestry estimates varied significantly across all three programs with the highest estimates obtained using STRUCTURE, followed by ADMIXMAP; while FRAPPE estimates were the lowest. FRAPPE estimates were similar using varying numbers of AIMs, while STRUCTURE estimates using 25 AIMs differed from estimates using 50 and 70 AIMs. Female T2DM-ESRD cases showed higher mean African proportions as compared to female controls, male cases, and male controls. Age showed a weak but significant correlation with individual ancestral estimates in AA cases (r2 = 0.101; P = 0.019) and in the combined set (r2 = 0.131; P = 3.57 x 10(-5)). The absolute difference between frequencies in parental populations, absolute delta, was correlated with admixture impact for dominant, additive, and recessive genotypic models of association. This study presents exploratory analyses of the impact of admixture on studies of AA with T2DM-ESRD and supports the use of ancestral proportions as a means of reducing confounding effects due to admixture.

Exploration of the utility of ancestry informative markers for genetic association studies of African Americans with type 2 diabetes and end stage renal disease

PubMed Central

Keene, Keith L.; Mychaleckyj, Josyf C.; Leak, Tennille S.; Smith, Shelly G.; Perlegas, Peter S.; Divers, Jasmin; Langefeld, Carl D.; Freedman, Barry I.; Bowden, Donald W.; Sale, Michèle M.

2009-01-01

Admixture and population stratification are major concerns in genetic association studies. We wished to evaluate the impact of admixture using empirically derived data from genetic association studies of African Americans (AA) with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Seventy ancestry informative markers (AIMs) were genotyped in 577 AA with T2DM-ESRD, 596 AA controls, 44 Yoruba Nigerian (YRI) and 39 European American (EA) controls. Genotypic data and association results for eight T2DM candidate gene studies in our AA population were included. Ancestral estimates were calculated using FRAPPE, ADMIXMAP and STRUCTURE for all AA samples, using varying numbers of AIMs (25, 50, and 70). Ancestry estimates varied significantly across all three programs with the highest estimates obtained using STRUCTURE, followed by ADMIXMAP; while FRAPPE estimates were the lowest. FRAPPE estimates were similar using varying numbers of AIMs, while STRUCTURE estimates using 25 AIMs differed from estimates using 50 and 70 AIMs. Female T2DM-ESRD cases showed higher mean African proportions as compared to female controls, male cases, and male controls. Age showed a weak but significant correlation with individual ancestral estimates in AA cases (r2=0.101; P=0.019) and in the combined set (r2=0.131; P=3.57×10−5). The absolute difference between frequencies in parental populations, absolute δ, was correlated with admixture impact for dominant, additive, and recessive genotypic models of association. This study presents exploratory analyses of the impact of admixture on studies of AA with T2DM-ESRD and supports the use of ancestral proportions as a means of reducing confounding effects due to admixture. PMID:18654799

Analysis of creative mathematic thinking ability in problem based learning model based on self-regulation learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munahefi, D. N.; Waluya, S. B.; Rochmad

2018-03-01

The purpose of this research identified the effectiveness of Problem Based Learning (PBL) models based on Self Regulation Leaning (SRL) on the ability of mathematical creative thinking and analyzed the ability of mathematical creative thinking of high school students in solving mathematical problems. The population of this study was students of grade X SMA N 3 Klaten. The research method used in this research was sequential explanatory. Quantitative stages with simple random sampling technique, where two classes were selected randomly as experimental class was taught with the PBL model based on SRL and control class was taught with expository model. The selection of samples at the qualitative stage was non-probability sampling technique in which each selected 3 students were high, medium, and low academic levels. PBL model with SRL approach effectived to students’ mathematical creative thinking ability. The ability of mathematical creative thinking of low academic level students with PBL model approach of SRL were achieving the aspect of fluency and flexibility. Students of academic level were achieving fluency and flexibility aspects well. But the originality of students at the academic level was not yet well structured. Students of high academic level could reach the aspect of originality.

Assessing three fish species ecological status in Colorado River, Grand Canyon based on physical habitat and population models.

PubMed

Yao, Weiwei; Chen, Yuansheng

2018-04-01

Colorado River is a unique ecosystem and provides important ecological services such as habitat for fish species as well as water power energy supplies. River management for this ecosystem requires assessment and decision support tools for fish which involves protecting, restoring as well as forecasting of future conditions. In this paper, a habitat and population model was developed and used to determine the levels of fish habitat suitability and population density in Colorado River between Lees Ferry and Lake Mead. The short term target fish populations are also predicted based on native fish recovery strategy. This model has been developed by combining hydrodynamics, heat transfer and sediment transport models with a habitat suitability index model and then coupling with habitat model into life stage population model. The fish were divided into four life stages according to the fish length. Three most abundant and typical native and non-native fish were selected as target species, which are rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis). Flow velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrates were used as the suitability indicators in habitat model and overall suitability index (OSI) as well as weight usable area (WUA) was used as an indicator in population model. A comparison was made between simulated fish population alteration and surveyed fish number fluctuation during 2000 to 2009. The application of this habitat and population model indicates that this model can be accurate present habitat situation and targets fish population dynamics of in the study areas. The analysis also indicates the flannelmouth sucker population will steadily increase while the rainbow trout will decrease based on the native fish recovery scheme. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Representational geometry: integrating cognition, computation, and the brain

PubMed Central

Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus; Kievit, Rogier A.

2013-01-01

The cognitive concept of representation plays a key role in theories of brain information processing. However, linking neuronal activity to representational content and cognitive theory remains challenging. Recent studies have characterized the representational geometry of neural population codes by means of representational distance matrices, enabling researchers to compare representations across stages of processing and to test cognitive and computational theories. Representational geometry provides a useful intermediate level of description, capturing both the information represented in a neuronal population code and the format in which it is represented. We review recent insights gained with this approach in perception, memory, cognition, and action. Analyses of representational geometry can compare representations between models and the brain, and promise to explain brain computation as transformation of representational similarity structure. PMID:23876494

Balancing income and cost in red deer management.

PubMed

Skonhoft, Anders; Veiberg, Vebjørn; Gauteplass, Asle; Olaussen, Jon Olaf; Meisingset, Erling L; Mysterud, Atle

2013-01-30

This paper presents a bioeconomic analysis of a red deer population within a Norwegian institutional context. This population is managed by a well-defined manager, typically consisting of many landowners operating in a cooperative manner, with the goal of maximizing the present-value hunting related income while taking browsing and grazing damages into account. The red deer population is structured in five categories of animals (calves, female and male yearlings, adult females and adult males). It is shown that differences in the per-animal meat values and survival rates ('biological discounted' values) are instrumental in determining the optimal harvest composition. Fertility plays no direct role. It is argued that this is a general result working in stage-structured models with harvest values. In the numerical illustration it is shown that the optimal harvest pattern stays quite stable under various parameter changes. It is revealed which parameters and harvest restrictions that is most important. We also show that the current harvest pattern involves too much yearling harvest compared with the economically efficient level. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Altered snowfall and soil disturbance influence the early life stage transitions and recruitment of a native and invasive grass in a cold desert

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change effects on plants are expected to be primarily mediated through early life stage transitions. Snowfall variability, in particular, may have profound impacts on seedling recruitment; structuring plant populations and communities, especially in mid-latitude systems. These water-limi...

[A systematic review of international simulation models on the natural history of breast cancer: current understanding and challenges for Chinese-population-specific model development].

PubMed

Ma, H M; Wang, L; Shi, J F; Ying, J M; Zhu, J; Chen, L L; Yue, X P; Gong, J Y; Li, X; Wang, J L; Dai, M

2017-10-10

Objective: To systematically review the worldwide simulation model studies on the natural history of breast cancer and to summarize related parameters. Methods: A structured literature search was conducted in PubMed and the Cochrane Library to identify articles during 1980-2015. Articles were screened independently by two researchers. Health states in the natural history and relevant parameters were extracted. Results: A total of 36 studies were included for analysis, within the earliest one was published in 1990. Most studies were from Europe and America countries, and 2 studies from China. Markov model was mostly applied to evaluating breast cancer screening programs ( n =32). Reported health status included "healthy" ( n =36), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, n =17), invasive breast cancer (IBC, n =36), and death ( n =27). There were two definite classifications for IBC, tumor size ( n =9) and TNM staging ( n =9, 3 studies reported transition rates). The median (range) of annual transition rates from DCIS to stage-Ⅰ IBC, Ⅰ to Ⅱ, Ⅱ to Ⅲ, Ⅲ to Ⅳ were 0.279 (0.259-0.299), 0.150 (0.069-0.430), 0.100 (0.060-0.128) and 0.210 (0.010-0.625), respectively. A total of 15 studies reported the mean duration from predinical to clinical stage for IBC was 1.95-4.70 years, which gradually increased with age, and 7 studies reported that for DCIS. Conclusions: Despite closer attention was paid to breast cancer natural history models, in recent years atypical hyperplasia has been neglected. Data on the mean duration of DCIS requires reasonable conversion. Various classifications for IBC exist whereas transition rates are limited. Current findings would be valuable references but challenging for the Chinese-population specific natural history model, development.

Utterance selection model of language change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baxter, G. J.; Blythe, R. A.; Croft, W.; McKane, A. J.

2006-04-01

We present a mathematical formulation of a theory of language change. The theory is evolutionary in nature and has close analogies with theories of population genetics. The mathematical structure we construct similarly has correspondences with the Fisher-Wright model of population genetics, but there are significant differences. The continuous time formulation of the model is expressed in terms of a Fokker-Planck equation. This equation is exactly soluble in the case of a single speaker and can be investigated analytically in the case of multiple speakers who communicate equally with all other speakers and give their utterances equal weight. Whilst the stationary properties of this system have much in common with the single-speaker case, time-dependent properties are richer. In the particular case where linguistic forms can become extinct, we find that the presence of many speakers causes a two-stage relaxation, the first being a common marginal distribution that persists for a long time as a consequence of ultimate extinction being due to rare fluctuations.

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, A.; Gakkhar, S.

2016-04-01

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

PubMed

Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

2013-05-17

Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on describing individual-level risk factors, the future necessitates comprehensive epidemiologic data characterizing multiple levels of HIV risk.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

Simulating anchovy's full life cycle in the northern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean): A coupled hydro-biogeochemical-IBM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Politikos, D.; Somarakis, S.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Giannoulaki, M.; Petihakis, G.; Machias, A.; Triantafyllou, G.

2015-11-01

A 3-D full life cycle population model for the North Aegean Sea (NAS) anchovy stock is presented. The model is two-way coupled with a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (POM-ERSEM). The anchovy life span is divided into seven life stages/age classes. Embryos and early larvae are passive particles, but subsequent stages exhibit active horizontal movements based on specific rules. A bioenergetics model simulates the growth in both the larval and juvenile/adult stages, while the microzooplankton and mesozooplankton fields of the biogeochemical model provide the food for fish consumption. The super-individual approach is adopted for the representation of the anchovy population. A dynamic egg production module, with an energy allocation algorithm, is embedded in the bioenergetics equation and produces eggs based on a new conceptual model for anchovy vitellogenesis. A model simulation for the period 2003-2006 with realistic initial conditions reproduced well the magnitude of population biomass and daily egg production estimated from acoustic and daily egg production method (DEPM) surveys, carried out in the NAS during June 2003-2006. Model simulated adult and egg habitats were also in good agreement with observed spatial distributions of acoustic biomass and egg abundance in June. Sensitivity simulations were performed to investigate the effect of different formulations adopted for key processes, such as reproduction and movement. The effect of the anchovy population on plankton dynamics was also investigated, by comparing simulations adopting a two-way or a one-way coupling of the fish with the biogeochemical model.

Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, Arne; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semiarid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations that lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic-stage and adult-stage components. Through a dependence of aquatic-stage mosquito development and adult emergence on pool persistence, we model small-scale hydrology as a dominant control of mosquito abundance. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. A 16% increase in rainfall between the two years was accompanied by a 132% increase in mosquito abundance between 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual timescales and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments of the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Refining mortality estimates in shark demographic analyses: a Bayesian inverse matrix approach.

PubMed

Smart, Jonathan J; Punt, André E; White, William T; Simpfendorfer, Colin A

2018-01-18

Leslie matrix models are an important analysis tool in conservation biology that are applied to a diversity of taxa. The standard approach estimates the finite rate of population growth (λ) from a set of vital rates. In some instances, an estimate of λ is available, but the vital rates are poorly understood and can be solved for using an inverse matrix approach. However, these approaches are rarely attempted due to prerequisites of information on the structure of age or stage classes. This study addressed this issue by using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations and the sample-importance-resampling (SIR) algorithm to solve the inverse matrix problem without data on population structure. This approach was applied to the grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia to determine the demography of this population. Additionally, these outputs were applied to another heavily fished population from Papua New Guinea (PNG) that requires estimates of λ for fisheries management. The SIR analysis determined that natural mortality (M) and total mortality (Z) based on indirect methods have previously been overestimated for C. amblyrhynchos, leading to an underestimated λ. The updated Z distributions determined using SIR provided λ estimates that matched an empirical λ for the GBR population and corrected obvious error in the demographic parameters for the PNG population. This approach provides opportunity for the inverse matrix approach to be applied more broadly to situations where information on population structure is lacking. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using matrix population models to inform biological control management of the wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic models are a powerful means of identifying vulnerable life stages of pest species and assessing the potential effectiveness of various management approaches in reducing pest population growth and spread. In a biological control context, such models can be used to focus foreign explorati...

The genealogical decomposition of a matrix population model with applications to the aggregation of stages.

PubMed

Bienvenu, François; Akçay, Erol; Legendre, Stéphane; McCandlish, David M

2017-06-01

Matrix projection models are a central tool in many areas of population biology. In most applications, one starts from the projection matrix to quantify the asymptotic growth rate of the population (the dominant eigenvalue), the stable stage distribution, and the reproductive values (the dominant right and left eigenvectors, respectively). Any primitive projection matrix also has an associated ergodic Markov chain that contains information about the genealogy of the population. In this paper, we show that these facts can be used to specify any matrix population model as a triple consisting of the ergodic Markov matrix, the dominant eigenvalue and one of the corresponding eigenvectors. This decomposition of the projection matrix separates properties associated with lineages from those associated with individuals. It also clarifies the relationships between many quantities commonly used to describe such models, including the relationship between eigenvalue sensitivities and elasticities. We illustrate the utility of such a decomposition by introducing a new method for aggregating classes in a matrix population model to produce a simpler model with a smaller number of classes. Unlike the standard method, our method has the advantage of preserving reproductive values and elasticities. It also has conceptually satisfying properties such as commuting with changes of units. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multispecies lottery competition: a diffusion analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Chesson, P.L.; Tuljapurkar, S.; Caswell, H.

1997-01-01

The lottery model is a stochastic competition model designed for space-limited communities of sedentary organisms. Examples of such communities include coral reef fishes, aquatic sessile organisms, and many plant communities. Explicit conditions for the coexistence of two species and the stationary distribution of the two-species model were determined previously using an approximation with a diffusion process. In this chapter, a diffusion approximation is presented for the multispecies model for communities of two or more species, and a stage-structured model is investigated. The stage-structured model would be more reasonable for communities of long-lived species such as trees in a forest in which recruitment and death rates depend on the age or stage of the individuals.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Demographic Modelling in Weed Biocontrol

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption. Therefore, this approach has the potential to guide the pre-release selection...

Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus maculosus ) spatial distribution, breeding water depth, and use of artificial spawning habitat in the Detroit River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Jaquelyn M.; Mifsud, David A.; Briggs, Andrew S.; Boase, James C.; Kennedy, Gregory W.

2015-01-01

Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus maculosus) populations have been declining in the Great Lakes region of North America. However, during fisheries assessments in the Detroit River, we documented Mudpuppy reproduction when we collected all life stages from egg through adult as by-catch in fisheries assessments. Ten years of fisheries sampling resulted in two occurrences of Mudpuppy egg collection and 411 Mudpuppies ranging in size from 37–392 mm Total Length, collected from water 3.5–15.1 m deep. Different types of fisheries gear collected specific life stages; spawning females used cement structures for egg deposition, larval Mudpuppies found refuge in eggmats, and we caught adults with baited setlines and minnow traps. Based on logistic regression models for setlines and minnow traps, there was a higher probability of catching adult Mudpuppies at lower temperatures and in shallower water with reduced clarity. In addition to documenting the presence of all life stages of this sensitive species in a deep and fast-flowing connecting channel, we were also able to show that standard fisheries research equipment can be used for Mudpuppy research in areas not typically sampled in herpetological studies. Our observations show that typical fisheries assessments and gear can play an important role in data collection for Mudpuppy population and spawning assessments.

New models for age estimation and assessment of their accuracy using developing mandibular third molar teeth in a Thai population.

PubMed

Duangto, P; Iamaroon, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P; Janhom, A

2017-03-01

Age estimation using developing third molar teeth is considered an important and accurate technique for both clinical and forensic practices. The aims of this study were to establish population-specific reference data, to develop age prediction models using mandibular third molar development, to test the accuracy of the resulting models, and to find the probability of persons being at the age thresholds of legal relevance in a Thai population. A total of 1867 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals aged between 8 and 23 years was selected to assess dental age. The mandibular third molar development was divided into nine stages. The stages were evaluated and each stage was transformed into a development score. Quadratic regression was employed to develop age prediction models. Our results show that males reached mandibular third molar root formation stages earlier than females. The models revealed a high correlation coefficient for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (R = 0.945 and 0.944 in males, R = 0.922 and 0.923 in females, respectively). Furthermore, the accuracy of the resulting models was tested in randomly selected 374 cases and showed low error values between the predicted dental age and the chronological age for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (-0.13 and -0.17 years in males, 0.01 and 0.03 years in females, respectively). In Thai samples, when the mandibular third molar teeth reached stage H, the probability of the person being over 18 years was 100 % in both sexes.

Two-stage Bayesian model to evaluate the effect of air pollution on chronic respiratory diseases using drug prescriptions.

PubMed

Blangiardo, Marta; Finazzi, Francesco; Cameletti, Michela

2016-08-01

Exposure to high levels of air pollutant concentration is known to be associated with respiratory problems which can translate into higher morbidity and mortality rates. The link between air pollution and population health has mainly been assessed considering air quality and hospitalisation or mortality data. However, this approach limits the analysis to individuals characterised by severe conditions. In this paper we evaluate the link between air pollution and respiratory diseases using general practice drug prescriptions for chronic respiratory diseases, which allow to draw conclusions based on the general population. We propose a two-stage statistical approach: in the first stage we specify a space-time model to estimate the monthly NO2 concentration integrating several data sources characterised by different spatio-temporal resolution; in the second stage we link the concentration to the β2-agonists prescribed monthly by general practices in England and we model the prescription rates through a small area approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Should there be an expanded role for palliative care in end-stage renal disease?

PubMed

Kurella Tamura, Manjula; Cohen, Lewis M

2010-11-01

In this review, we outline the rationale for expanding the role of palliative care in end-stage renal disease (ESRD), describe the components of a palliative care model, and identify potential barriers in implementation. Patients receiving chronic dialysis have reduced life expectancy and high rates of chronic pain, depression, cognitive impairment, and physical disability. Delivery of prognostic information and advance care planning are desired by patients, but occur infrequently. Furthermore, although hospice care is associated with improved symptom control and lower healthcare costs at the end of life, it is underutilized by the ESRD population, even among patients who withdraw from dialysis. A palliative care model incorporating communication of prognosis, advance care planning, symptom assessment and management, and timely hospice referral may improve quality of life and quality of dying. Resources and clinical practice guidelines are available to assist practitioners with incorporating palliative care into ESRD management. There is a large unmet need to alleviate the physical, psychosocial, and existential suffering of patients with ESRD. More fully integrating palliative care into ESRD management by improving end-of-life care training, eliminating structural and financial barriers to hospice use, and identifying optimal methods to deliver palliative care are necessary if we are to successfully address the needs of an aging ESRD population.

Fitting Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Models with Complex Datasets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Sandra Jo; Polanin, Joshua R.; Lipsey, Mark W.

2016-01-01

A modification of the first stage of the standard procedure for two-stage meta-analytic structural equation modeling for use with large complex datasets is presented. This modification addresses two common problems that arise in such meta-analyses: (a) primary studies that provide multiple measures of the same construct and (b) the correlation…

Using machine learning to identify air pollution exposure profiles associated with early cognitive skills among U.S. children.

PubMed

Stingone, Jeanette A; Pandey, Om P; Claudio, Luz; Pandey, Gaurav

2017-11-01

Data-driven machine learning methods present an opportunity to simultaneously assess the impact of multiple air pollutants on health outcomes. The goal of this study was to apply a two-stage, data-driven approach to identify associations between air pollutant exposure profiles and children's cognitive skills. Data from 6900 children enrolled in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort, a national study of children born in 2001 and followed through kindergarten, were linked to estimated concentrations of 104 ambient air toxics in the 2002 National Air Toxics Assessment using ZIP code of residence at age 9 months. In the first-stage, 100 regression trees were learned to identify ambient air pollutant exposure profiles most closely associated with scores on a standardized mathematics test administered to children in kindergarten. In the second-stage, the exposure profiles frequently predicting lower math scores were included within linear regression models and adjusted for confounders in order to estimate the magnitude of their effect on math scores. This approach was applied to the full population, and then to the populations living in urban and highly-populated urban areas. Our first-stage results in the full population suggested children with low trichloroethylene exposure had significantly lower math scores. This association was not observed for children living in urban communities, suggesting that confounding related to urbanicity needs to be considered within the first-stage. When restricting our analysis to populations living in urban and highly-populated urban areas, high isophorone levels were found to predict lower math scores. Within adjusted regression models of children in highly-populated urban areas, the estimated effect of higher isophorone exposure on math scores was -1.19 points (95% CI -1.94, -0.44). Similar results were observed for the overall population of urban children. This data-driven, two-stage approach can be applied to other populations, exposures and outcomes to generate hypotheses within high-dimensional exposure data. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

2018-05-01

Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

Applying the transtheoretical model to tobacco cessation and prevention: a review of literature.

PubMed

Spencer, Leslie; Pagell, Francie; Hallion, Maria Elena; Adams, Troy B

2002-01-01

To comprehensively review all published, peer-reviewed research on the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) and tobacco cessation and prevention by exploring the validity of its constructs, the evidence for use of interventions based on the TTM, the description of populations using TTM constructs, and the identification of areas for further research. The three research questions answered were: "How is the validity of the TTM as applied to tobacco supported by research?" "How does the TTM describe special populations regarding tobacco use?" "What is the nature of evidence supporting the use of stage-matched tobacco interventions?" Computer Database search (PsychInfo, Medline, Current Contents, ERIC, CINAHL-Allied Health, and Pro-Quest Nursing) and manual journal search. INCLUSION/EXCLUSION CRITERIA: All English, original, research articles on the TTM as it relates to tobacco use published in peer-reviewed journals prior to March 1, 2001, were included. Commentaries, editorials, and books were not included. Articles were categorized as TTM construct validation, population descriptions using TTM constructs, or intervention evaluation using TTM constructs. Summary tables including study design, research rating, purpose, methods, findings, and implications were created. Articles were further divided into groups according to their purpose. Considering both the findings and research quality of each, the three research questions were addressed. The 148 articles reviewed included 54 validation studies, 73 population studies, and 37 interventions (some articles fit two categories). Overall, the evidence in support of the TTM as applied to tobacco use was strong, with supportive studies being more numerous and of a better design than nonsupportive studies. Using established criteria, we rated the construct validity of the entire body of literature as good; however, notable concerns exist about the staging construct. A majority of stage-matched intervention studies provided positive results and were of a better quality than those not supportive of stage-matched interventions; thus, we rated the body of literature using stage-matched tobacco interventions as acceptable and the body of literature using non-stage-matched interventions as suggestive. Population studies indicated that TTM constructs are applicable to a wide variety of general and special populations both in and outside of the United States, although a few exceptions exist. Evidence for the validity of the TTM as it applies to tobacco use is strong and growing; however, it is not conclusive. Eight different staging mechanisms were identified, raising the question of which are most valid and reliable. Interventions tailored to a smoker's stage were successful more often than nontailored interventions in promoting forward stage movement. Stage distribution is well-documented for U.S. populations; however, more research is needed for non-U.S. populations, for special populations, and on other TTM constructs.

Modeling Far-UV Fluorescent Emission Features of Warm Molecular Hydrogen in the Inner Regions of Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoadley, Keri; France, Kevin

2015-01-01

Probing the surviving molecular gas within the inner regions of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) around T Tauri stars (1 - 10 Myr) provides insight into the conditions in which planet formation and migration occurs while the gas disk is still present. We model observed far ultraviolet (FUV) molecular hydrogen (H₂) fluorescent emission lines that originate within the inner regions (< 10 AU) of 9 well-studied Classic T Tauri stars, using the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS), to explore the physical structure of the molecular disk at different PPD dust evolutionary stages. We created a 2D radiative transfer model that estimates the density and temperature distributions of warm, inner radial H₂ (T > 1500 K) with a set of 6 free parameters and produces a data cube of expected emission line profiles that describe the physical structure of the inner molecular disk atmosphere. By comparing the modeled emission lines with COS H₂ fluorescence emission features, we estimate the physical structure of the molecular disk atmosphere for each target with the set of free parameters that best replicate the observed lines. First results suggest that, for all dust evolutionary stages of disks considered, ground-state H₂ populations are described by a roughly constant temperature T(H₂) = 2500 +/- 1000 K. Possible evolution of the density structure of the H₂ atmosphere between intact and depleting dust disks may be distinguishable, but large errors in the inferred best-fit parameter sets prevent us from making this conclusion. Further improvements to the modeling framework and statistical comparison in determining the best-fit model-to-data parameter sets are ongoing, beginning with improvements to the radiative transfer model and use of up-to-date HI Lyman α absorption optical depths (see McJunkin in posters) to better estimate disk structural parameters. Once improvements are implemented, we will investigate the possible presence of a molecular wind component in the observed H₂ fluorescence features by determining blue-shifted flux residuals in the data after best-fit model-to-data comparisons are complete.

Detecting Lung and Colorectal Cancer Recurrence Using Structured Clinical/Administrative Data to Enable Outcomes Research and Population Health Management.

PubMed

Hassett, Michael J; Uno, Hajime; Cronin, Angel M; Carroll, Nikki M; Hornbrook, Mark C; Ritzwoller, Debra

2017-12-01

Recurrent cancer is common, costly, and lethal, yet we know little about it in community-based populations. Electronic health records and tumor registries contain vast amounts of data regarding community-based patients, but usually lack recurrence status. Existing algorithms that use structured data to detect recurrence have limitations. We developed algorithms to detect the presence and timing of recurrence after definitive therapy for stages I-III lung and colorectal cancer using 2 data sources that contain a widely available type of structured data (claims or electronic health record encounters) linked to gold-standard recurrence status: Medicare claims linked to the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance study, and the Cancer Research Network Virtual Data Warehouse linked to registry data. Twelve potential indicators of recurrence were used to develop separate models for each cancer in each data source. Detection models maximized area under the ROC curve (AUC); timing models minimized average absolute error. Algorithms were compared by cancer type/data source, and contrasted with an existing binary detection rule. Detection model AUCs (>0.92) exceeded existing prediction rules. Timing models yielded absolute prediction errors that were small relative to follow-up time (<15%). Similar covariates were included in all detection and timing algorithms, though differences by cancer type and dataset challenged efforts to create 1 common algorithm for all scenarios. Valid and reliable detection of recurrence using big data is feasible. These tools will enable extensive, novel research on quality, effectiveness, and outcomes for lung and colorectal cancer patients and those who develop recurrence.

Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Intensive anti-malaria campaigns targeting the Anopheles population have demonstrated substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Understanding the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes throughout their whole lifecycle is important to assess the likely impact of vector control interventions alone and in combination as well as to aid the design of novel interventions. Methods An ecological model of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato populations incorporating a rainfall-dependent carrying capacity and density-dependent regulation of mosquito larvae in breeding sites is developed. The model is fitted to adult mosquito catch and rainfall data from 8 villages in the Garki District of Nigeria (the 'Garki Project') using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and prior estimates of parameters derived from the literature. The model is used to compare the impact of vector control interventions directed against adult mosquito stages - long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS) - and directed against aquatic mosquito stages, alone and in combination on adult mosquito density. Results A model in which density-dependent regulation occurs in the larval stages via a linear association between larval density and larval death rates provided a good fit to seasonal adult mosquito catches. The effective mosquito reproduction number in the presence of density-dependent regulation is dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns and peaks at the start of the rainy season. In addition to killing adult mosquitoes during the extrinsic incubation period, LLINs and IRS also result in less eggs being oviposited in breeding sites leading to further reductions in adult mosquito density. Combining interventions such as the application of larvicidal or pupacidal agents that target the aquatic stages of the mosquito lifecycle with LLINs or IRS can lead to substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Conclusions Density-dependent regulation of anopheline larvae in breeding sites ensures robust, stable mosquito populations that can persist in the face of intensive vector control interventions. Selecting combinations of interventions that target different stages in the vector's lifecycle will result in maximum reductions in mosquito density. PMID:21798055

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

2008-01-01

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

THE COMPONENTS OF KIN COMPETITION

PubMed Central

Van Dyken, J. David

2011-01-01

It is well known that competition among kin alters the rate and often the direction of evolution in subdivided populations. Yet much remains unclear about the ecological and demographic causes of kin competition, or what role life cycle plays in promoting or ameliorating its effects. Using the multilevel Price equation, I derive a general equation for evolution in structured populations under an arbitrary intensity of kin competition. This equation partitions the effects of selection and demography, and recovers numerous previous models as special cases. I quantify the degree of kin competition, α, which explicitly depends on life cycle. I show how life cycle and demographic assumptions can be incorporated into kin selection models via α, revealing life cycles that are more or less permissive of altruism. As an example, I give closed-form results for Hamilton’s rule in a three-stage life cycle. Although results are sensitive to life cycle in general, I identify three demographic conditions that give life cycle invariant results. Under the infinite island model, α is a function of the scale of density regulation and dispersal rate, effectively disentangling these two phenomena. Population viscosity per se does not impede kin selection. PMID:20482610

Modeling aircraft noise induced sleep disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, Sarah M.

One of the primary impacts of aircraft noise on a community is its disruption of sleep. Aircraft noise increases the time to fall asleep, the number of awakenings, and decreases the amount of rapid eye movement and slow wave sleep. Understanding these changes in sleep may be important as they could increase the risk for developing next-day effects such as sleepiness and reduced performance and long-term health effects such as cardiovascular disease. There are models that have been developed to predict the effect of aircraft noise on sleep. However, most of these models only predict the percentage of the population that is awakened. Markov and nonlinear dynamic models have been developed to predict an individual's sleep structure during the night. However, both of these models have limitations. The Markov model only accounts for whether an aircraft event occurred not the noise level or other sound characteristics of the event that may affect the degree of disturbance. The nonlinear dynamic models were developed to describe normal sleep regulation and do not have a noise effects component. In addition, the nonlinear dynamic models have slow dynamics which make it difficult to predict short duration awakenings which occur both spontaneously and as a result of nighttime noise exposure. The purpose of this research was to examine these sleep structure models to determine how they could be altered to predict the effect of aircraft noise on sleep. Different approaches for adding a noise level dependence to the Markov Model was explored and the modified model was validated by comparing predictions to behavioral awakening data. In order to determine how to add faster dynamics to the nonlinear dynamic sleep models it was necessary to have a more detailed sleep stage classification than was available from visual scoring of sleep data. An automatic sleep stage classification algorithm was developed which extracts different features of polysomnography data including the occurrence of rapid eye movements, sleep spindles, and slow wave sleep. Using these features an approach for classifying sleep stages every one second during the night was developed. From observation of the results of the sleep stage classification, it was determined how to add faster dynamics to the nonlinear dynamic model. Slow and fast REM activity are modeled separately and the activity in the gamma frequency band of the EEG signal is used to model both spontaneous and noise-induced awakenings. The nonlinear model predicts changes in sleep structure similar to those found by other researchers and reported in the sleep literature and similar to those found in obtained survey data. To compare sleep disturbance model predictions, flight operations data from US airports were obtained and sleep disturbance in communities was predicted for different operations scenarios using the modified Markov model, the nonlinear dynamic model, and other aircraft noise awakening models. Similarities and differences in model predictions were evaluated in order to determine if the use of the developed sleep structure model leads to improved predictions of the impact of nighttime noise on communities.

Effects of developmental variability on the dynamics and self-organization of cell populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhakara, Kaumudi H.; Gholami, Azam; Zykov, Vladimir S.; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2017-11-01

We report experimental and theoretical results for spatiotemporal pattern formation in cell populations, where the parameters vary in space and time due to mechanisms intrinsic to the system, namely Dictyostelium discoideum (D.d.) in the starvation phase. We find that different patterns are formed when the populations are initialized at different developmental stages, or when populations at different initial developmental stages are mixed. The experimentally observed patterns can be understood with a modified Kessler-Levine model that takes into account the initial spatial heterogeneity of the cell populations and a developmental path introduced by us, i.e. the time dependence of the various biochemical parameters. The dynamics of the parameters agree with known biochemical studies. Most importantly, the modified model reproduces not only our results, but also the observations of an independent experiment published earlier. This shows that pattern formation can be used to understand and quantify the temporal evolution of the system parameters.

Influence of Ribeiroia ondatrae (Trematoda: Digenea) infection on limb development and survival of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens): effects of host stage and parasite-exposure level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schotthoefer, Anna M.; Koehler, Anson V.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Cole, Rebecca A.

2003-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that infection by larvae of the trematode Ribeiroia ondatrae accounts for a significant proportion of limb malformations currently observed in amphibian populations of North America. However, the effects of R. ondatrae infection on northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens), one of the species most frequently reported with malformations, have not been adequately explored. Moreover, the risk factors associated with R. ondatrae-induced malformations have not been clearly identified. We examined the effects of timing of infection on tadpole survival and limb development. Rana pipiens tadpoles were individually exposed to R. ondatrae cercariae at the pre-limb-bud (Gosner stages 24 and 25), limb-bud (Gosner stages 27 and 28), or paddle (Gosner stages 31–33) stages of development and monitored through metamorphosis. The effects of infection were stage-specific. Infections acquired at the pre-limb-bud stage resulted in a high mortality rate (47.5–97.5%), whereas tadpoles infected at the limb-bud stage displayed a high malformation rate (16% overall), and the magnitude of effects increased with the level of exposure to cercariae. In contrast, infections acquired at the paddle stage had no effect on limb development or tadpole survival, which suggests that the timing of R. ondatrae infection in relation to the stage structure of tadpole populations in the wild is an important determinant of the degree to which populations are affected by R. ondatrae.

Ontogenetic functional diversity: size structure of a keystone predator drives functioning of a complex ecosystem.

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W; Rasmussen, Nick L

2013-05-01

A central challenge in community ecology is to understand the connection between biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems. While traditional approaches have largely focused on species-level diversity, increasing evidence indicates that there exists substantial ecological diversity among individuals within species. By far, the largest source of this intraspecific diversity stems from variation among individuals in ontogenetic stage and size. Although such ontogenetic shifts are ubiquitous in natural communities, whether and how they scale up to influence the structure and functioning of complex ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we take an experimental approach to examine the consequences of ontogenetic niche shifts for the structure of communities and ecosystem processes. In particular we experimentally manipulated the stage structure in a keystone predator, larvae of the dragonfly Anax junius, in complex experimental pond communities to test whether changes in the population stage or size structure of a keystone species scale up to alter community structure and ecosystem processes, and how functional differences scale with relative differences in size among stages. We found that the functional role of A. junius was stage-specific. Altering what stages were present in a pond led to concurrent changes in community structure, primary producer biomass (periphyton and phytoplankton), and ultimately altered ecosystem processes (respiration and net primary productivity), indicating a strong, but stage-specific, trophic cascade. Interestingly, the stage-specific effects did not simply scale with size or biomass of the predator, but instead indicated clear ontogenetic niche shifts in ecological interactions. Thus, functional differences among stages within a keystone species scaled up to alter the functioning of entire ecosystems. Therefore, our results indicate that the classical approach of assuming an average functional role of a species can be misleading because functional roles are dynamic and will change with shifts in the stage structure of the species. In general this emphasizes the importance of accounting for functional diversity below the species level to predict how natural and anthropogenic changes alter the functioning of natural ecosystems.

Identifying the key biophysical drivers, connectivity outcomes, and metapopulation consequences of larval dispersal in the sea.

PubMed

Treml, Eric A; Ford, John R; Black, Kerry P; Swearer, Stephen E

2015-01-01

Population connectivity, which is essential for the persistence of benthic marine metapopulations, depends on how life history traits and the environment interact to influence larval production, dispersal and survival. Although we have made significant advances in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of these individual processes, developing an approach that integrates the entire population connectivity process from reproduction, through dispersal, and to the recruitment of individuals has been difficult. We present a population connectivity modelling framework and diagnostic approach for quantifying the impact of i) life histories, ii) demographics, iii) larval dispersal, and iv) the physical seascape, on the structure of connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. We illustrate this approach using the subtidal rocky reef ecosystem of Port Phillip Bay, were we provide a broadly-applicable framework of population connectivity and quantitative methodology for evaluating the relative importance of individual factors in determining local and system outcomes. The spatial characteristics of marine population connectivity are primarily influenced by larval mortality, the duration of the pelagic larval stage, and the settlement competency characteristics, with significant variability imposed by the geographic setting and the timing of larval release. The relative influence and the direction and strength of the main effects were strongly consistent among 10 connectivity-based metrics. These important intrinsic factors (mortality, length of the pelagic larval stage, and the extent of the precompetency window) and the spatial and temporal variability represent key research priorities for advancing our understanding of the connectivity process and metapopulation outcomes.

Tracing the Early Development of Harmful Algal Blooms on the West Florida Shelf with the Aid of Lagrangian Coherent Structures

PubMed Central

Olascoaga, M. J.; Beron-Vera, F. J.; Brand, L. E.; Koçak, H.

2008-01-01

Several theories have been proposed to explain the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) produced by the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf. However, because the early stages of HAB development are usually not detected, these theories have been so far very difficult to verify. In this paper we employ simulated Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) to trace potential early locations of the development of a HAB in late 2004 before it was transported to a region where it could be detected by satellite imagery. The LCSs, which are extracted from surface ocean currents produced by a data-assimilative HYCOM (HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model) simulation, constitute material fluid barriers that demarcate potential pathways for HAB evolution. Using a simplified population dynamics model we infer the factors that could possibly lead to the development of the HAB in question. The population dynamics model determines nitrogen in two components, nutrients and phytoplankton, which are assumed to be passively advected by surface ocean currents produced by the above HYCOM simulation. Two nutrient sources are inferred for the HAB whose evolution is found to be strongly tied to the simulated LCSs. These nutrient sources are found to be located nearshore and possibly due to land runoff. PMID:19137076

The concurrent evolution of cooperation and the population structures that support it.

PubMed

Powers, Simon T; Penn, Alexandra S; Watson, Richard A

2011-06-01

The evolution of cooperation often depends upon population structure, yet nearly all models of cooperation implicitly assume that this structure remains static. This is a simplifying assumption, because most organisms possess genetic traits that affect their population structure to some degree. These traits, such as a group size preference, affect the relatedness of interacting individuals and hence the opportunity for kin or group selection. We argue that models that do not explicitly consider their evolution cannot provide a satisfactory account of the origin of cooperation, because they cannot explain how the prerequisite population structures arise. Here, we consider the concurrent evolution of genetic traits that affect population structure, with those that affect social behavior. We show that not only does population structure drive social evolution, as in previous models, but that the opportunity for cooperation can in turn drive the creation of population structures that support it. This occurs through the generation of linkage disequilibrium between socio-behavioral and population-structuring traits, such that direct kin selection on social behavior creates indirect selection pressure on population structure. We illustrate our argument with a model of the concurrent evolution of group size preference and social behavior. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Demographic matrix model for informing swallow-wort (Vincetoxicum spp.) biological control

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption (weak links) by biological control and/or other control tactics. Therefore, t...

Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

2012-01-01

Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

Assessing the Validity of a Stage Measure on Physical Activity in a Population-Based Sample of Individuals with Type 1 or Type 2 Diabetes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plotnikoff, Ronald C.; Lippke, Sonia; Reinbold-Matthews, Melissa; Courneya, Kerry S.; Karunamuni, Nandini; Sigal, Ronald J.; Birkett, Nicholas

2007-01-01

This study was designed to test the validity of a transtheoretical model's physical activity (PA) stage measure with intention and different intensities of behavior in a large population-based sample of adults living with diabetes (Type 1 diabetes, n = 697; Type 2 diabetes, n = 1,614) and examine different age groups. The overall…

Evaluating the Number of Stages in Development of Squamous Cell and Adenocarcinomas across Cancer Sites Using Human Population-Based Cancer Modeling

PubMed Central

Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P.; Lyerly, H. Kim

2012-01-01

Background Adenocarcinomas (ACs) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) differ by clinical and molecular characteristics. We evaluated the characteristics of carcinogenesis by modeling the age patterns of incidence rates of ACs and SCCs of various organs to test whether these characteristics differed between cancer subtypes. Methodology/Principal Findings Histotype-specific incidence rates of 14 ACs and 12 SCCs from the SEER Registry (1973–2003) were analyzed by fitting several biologically motivated models to observed age patterns. A frailty model with the Weibull baseline was applied to each age pattern to provide the best fit for the majority of cancers. For each cancer, model parameters describing the underlying mechanisms of carcinogenesis including the number of stages occurring during an individual’s life and leading to cancer (m-stages) were estimated. For sensitivity analysis, the age-period-cohort model was incorporated into the carcinogenesis model to test the stability of the estimates. For the majority of studied cancers, the numbers of m-stages were similar within each group (i.e., AC and SCC). When cancers of the same organs were compared (i.e., lung, esophagus, and cervix uteri), the number of m-stages were more strongly associated with the AC/SCC subtype than with the organ: 9.79±0.09, 9.93±0.19 and 8.80±0.10 for lung, esophagus, and cervical ACs, compared to 11.41±0.10, 12.86±0.34 and 12.01±0.51 for SCCs of the respective organs (p<0.05 between subtypes). Most SCCs had more than ten m-stages while ACs had fewer than ten m-stages. The sensitivity analyses of the model parameters demonstrated the stability of the obtained estimates. Conclusions/Significance A model containing parameters capable of representing the number of stages of cancer development occurring during individual’s life was applied to the large population data on incidence of ACs and SCCs. The model revealed that the number of m-stages differed by cancer subtype being more strongly associated with ACs/SCCs histotype than with organ/site. PMID:22629394

The variability of lower third molar development in Northeast Malaysian population with application to age estimation.

PubMed

Johan, N A; Khamis, M F; Abdul Jamal, N Sk; Ahmad, B; Mahanani, E S

2012-07-01

This study aimed to assess the variability of the lower third molar (tooth 38 and 48) development in Northeast Malaysian population with respect to the side of dentition, to generate age prediction models and to compare the outcome with other studies. A total of 1080 orthopantomograms of Northeast Malaysian population aged between 14 and 25 years (540 males and 540 females) from the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia's archive which met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were selected and the maturity stages of tooth 38 and 48 were scored using Demirjian's stages (A-H). The findings showed a wide variation of the development of lower third molars in the Northeast Malaysian population. The roots developed earlier in males than in females. The development of the dentition on opposite sides of the mandible was synchronously in females and males. A multiple regression analysis shows that 71.1% of variance in age was explained by sex and developmental stage of tooth 48. An age prediction model was generated from the regression analysis: [Age = 7.117 + 1.907*(stage of tooth 48) - 0.432*(sex)] with mean prediction errors between -0.17 to 3.14 years. The obtained data in the current study are useful for references and determining age of unidentified human remains for identification investigation.

Representational geometry: integrating cognition, computation, and the brain.

PubMed

Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus; Kievit, Rogier A

2013-08-01

The cognitive concept of representation plays a key role in theories of brain information processing. However, linking neuronal activity to representational content and cognitive theory remains challenging. Recent studies have characterized the representational geometry of neural population codes by means of representational distance matrices, enabling researchers to compare representations across stages of processing and to test cognitive and computational theories. Representational geometry provides a useful intermediate level of description, capturing both the information represented in a neuronal population code and the format in which it is represented. We review recent insights gained with this approach in perception, memory, cognition, and action. Analyses of representational geometry can compare representations between models and the brain, and promise to explain brain computation as transformation of representational similarity structure. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The transition to hospital consultant and the influence of preparedness, social support, and perception: A structural equation modelling approach.

PubMed

Westerman, Michiel; Teunissen, Pim W; Fokkema, Joanne P I; van der Vleuten, Cees P M; Scherpbier, Albert J J A; Siegert, Carl E H; Scheele, Fedde

2013-04-01

Insight into the transition from specialist registrar to hospital consultant is needed to better align specialty training with starting as a consultant and to facilitate this transition. This study investigates whether preparedness regarding medical and generic competencies, perceived intensity, and social support are associated with burnout among new consultants. A population-based study among all 2643 new consultants in the Netherlands (all specialties) was conducted in June 2010. A questionnaire covering preparedness for practice, intensity of the transition, social support, and burnout was used. Structural equation modelling was used for statistical analysis. Data from a third of the population were available (32% n = 840) (43% male/57% female). Preparation in generic competencies received lower ratings than in medical competencies. A total of 10% met the criteria for burnout and 18% scored high on the emotional exhaustion subscale. Perceived lack of preparation in generic competencies correlated with burnout (r = 0.15, p < 0.001). No such relation was found for medical competencies. Furthermore, social support protected against burnout. These findings illustrate the relevance of generic competencies for new hospital consultants. Furthermore, social support facilitates this intense and stressful stage within the medical career.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

2012-01-01

American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

Fine-scale spatial genetic dynamics over the life cycle of the tropical tree Prunus africana.

PubMed

Berens, D G; Braun, C; González-Martínez, S C; Griebeler, E M; Nathan, R; Böhning-Gaese, K

2014-11-01

Studying fine-scale spatial genetic patterns across life stages is a powerful approach to identify ecological processes acting within tree populations. We investigated spatial genetic dynamics across five life stages in the insect-pollinated and vertebrate-dispersed tropical tree Prunus africana in Kakamega Forest, Kenya. Using six highly polymorphic microsatellite loci, we assessed genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure (SGS) from seed rain and seedlings, and different sapling stages to adult trees. We found significant SGS in all stages, potentially caused by limited seed dispersal and high recruitment rates in areas with high light availability. SGS decreased from seed and early seedling stages to older juvenile stages. Interestingly, SGS was stronger in adults than in late juveniles. The initial decrease in SGS was probably driven by both random and non-random thinning of offspring clusters during recruitment. Intergenerational variation in SGS could have been driven by variation in gene flow processes, overlapping generations in the adult stage or local selection. Our study shows that complex sequential processes during recruitment contribute to SGS of tree populations.

Multidimensional structure-function relationships in human β-cardiac myosin from population-scale genetic variation

PubMed Central

Homburger, Julian R.; Green, Eric M.; Caleshu, Colleen; Sunitha, Margaret S.; Taylor, Rebecca E.; Ruppel, Kathleen M.; Metpally, Raghu Prasad Rao; Colan, Steven D.; Michels, Michelle; Day, Sharlene M.; Olivotto, Iacopo; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Dewey, Frederick E.; Ho, Carolyn Y.; Spudich, James A.; Ashley, Euan A.

2016-01-01

Myosin motors are the fundamental force-generating elements of muscle contraction. Variation in the human β-cardiac myosin heavy chain gene (MYH7) can lead to hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), a heritable disease characterized by cardiac hypertrophy, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death. How specific myosin variants alter motor function or clinical expression of disease remains incompletely understood. Here, we combine structural models of myosin from multiple stages of its chemomechanical cycle, exome sequencing data from two population cohorts of 60,706 and 42,930 individuals, and genetic and phenotypic data from 2,913 patients with HCM to identify regions of disease enrichment within β-cardiac myosin. We first developed computational models of the human β-cardiac myosin protein before and after the myosin power stroke. Then, using a spatial scan statistic modified to analyze genetic variation in protein 3D space, we found significant enrichment of disease-associated variants in the converter, a kinetic domain that transduces force from the catalytic domain to the lever arm to accomplish the power stroke. Focusing our analysis on surface-exposed residues, we identified a larger region significantly enriched for disease-associated variants that contains both the converter domain and residues on a single flat surface on the myosin head described as the myosin mesa. Notably, patients with HCM with variants in the enriched regions have earlier disease onset than patients who have HCM with variants elsewhere. Our study provides a model for integrating protein structure, large-scale genetic sequencing, and detailed phenotypic data to reveal insight into time-shifted protein structures and genetic disease. PMID:27247418

Regional differences in population-based cancer survival between six prefectures in Japan: application of relative survival models with funnel plots.

PubMed

Ito, Yuri; Ioka, Akiko; Tsukuma, Hideaki; Ajiki, Wakiko; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Rachet, Bernard; Coleman, Michel P

2009-07-01

We used new methods to examine differences in population-based cancer survival between six prefectures in Japan, after adjustment for age and stage at diagnosis. We applied regression models for relative survival to data from population-based cancer registries covering each prefecture for patients diagnosed with stomach, lung, or breast cancer during 1993-1996. Funnel plots were used to display the excess hazard ratio (EHR) for each prefecture, defined as the excess hazard of death from each cancer within 5 years of diagnosis relative to the mean excess hazard (in excess of national background mortality by age and sex) in all six prefectures combined. The contribution of age and stage to the EHR in each prefecture was assessed from differences in deviance-based R(2) between the various models. No significant differences were seen between prefectures in 5-year survival from breast cancer. For cancers of the stomach and lung, EHR in Osaka prefecture were above the upper 95% control limits. For stomach cancer, the age- and stage-adjusted EHR in Osaka were 1.29 for men and 1.43 for women, compared with Fukui and Yamagata. Differences in the stage at diagnosis of stomach cancer appeared to explain most of this excess hazard (61.3% for men, 56.8% for women), whereas differences in age at diagnosis explained very little (0.8%, 1.3%). This approach offers the potential to quantify the impact of differences in stage at diagnosis on time trends and regional differences in cancer survival. It underlines the utility of population-based cancer registries for improving cancer control.

A general population-genetic model for the production by population structure of spurious genotype-phenotype associations in discrete, admixed or spatially distributed populations.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Noah A; Nordborg, Magnus

2006-07-01

In linkage disequilibrium mapping of genetic variants causally associated with phenotypes, spurious associations can potentially be generated by any of a variety of types of population structure. However, mathematical theory of the production of spurious associations has largely been restricted to population structure models that involve the sampling of individuals from a collection of discrete subpopulations. Here, we introduce a general model of spurious association in structured populations, appropriate whether the population structure involves discrete groups, admixture among such groups, or continuous variation across space. Under the assumptions of the model, we find that a single common principle--applicable to both the discrete and admixed settings as well as to spatial populations--gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the occurrence of spurious associations. Using a mathematical connection between the discrete and admixed cases, we show that in admixed populations, spurious associations are less severe than in corresponding mixtures of discrete subpopulations, especially when the variance of admixture across individuals is small. This observation, together with the results of simulations that examine the relative influences of various model parameters, has important implications for the design and analysis of genetic association studies in structured populations.

The Hydrology of Malaria: Model Development and Application to a Sahelian Village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Duchemin, J.; Eltahir, E. A.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semi-arid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations which lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely-sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic stage and adult stage components. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual time scales, and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments to the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Do stage-specific functional responses of consumers dampen the effects of subsidies on trophic cascades in streams?

PubMed

Sato, Takuya; Watanabe, Katsutoshi

2014-07-01

Resource subsidies often weaken trophic cascades in recipient communities via consumers' functional response to the subsidies. Consumer populations are commonly stage-structured and may respond to the subsidies differently among the stages yet less is known about how this might impact the subsidy effects on the strength of trophic cascades in recipient systems. We show here, using a large-scale field experiment, that the stage structure of a recipient consumer would dampen the effects of terrestrial invertebrate subsidies on the strength of trophic cascade in streams. When a high input rate of the terrestrial invertebrates was available, both large and small fish stages switched their diet to the terrestrial subsidy, which weakened the trophic cascade in streams. However, when the input rate of the terrestrial invertebrates was at a moderate level, the terrestrial subsidy did not weaken the trophic cascade. This discrepancy was likely due to small fish stages being competitively excluded from feeding on the subsidy by larger stages of fish and primarily foraging on benthic invertebrates under the moderate input level. Although previous studies using single fish stages have clearly demonstrated that the terrestrial invertebrate input equivalent to our moderate input rate weakened the trophic cascade in streams, this subsidy effect might be overestimated given small fish stage may not switch their diet to the subsidy under competition with large fish stage. Given the ubiquity of consumer stage structure and interaction among consumer stages, the effects we saw might be widespread in nature, requiring future studies that explicitly involve consumer's stage structure into community ecology. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Stage Structure of Moral Development: A Comparison of Alternative Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hau, Kit-Tai

This study evaluated the stage structure of several quasi-simplex and non-simplex models of moral development in two domains of moral development in a British and a Chinese sample. Analyses were based on data reported by Sachs (1992): the Chinese sample consisted of 1,005 students from grade 9 to post-college, and the British sample consisted of…

A structural model of health behavior modification among patients with cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Goong, Hwasoo; Ryu, Seungmi; Xu, Lijuan

2016-02-01

The purpose of the study was to test a structural equation model in which social support, health beliefs, and stage of change predict the health behaviors of patients with cardiovascular disease. A cross-sectional correlational design was used. Using convenience sampling, a survey about social support, health belief, stage of change, and health behavior was completed by 314 adults with cardiovascular disease from outpatient clinics in 2 university hospitals in Korea. Data were analyzed using a structural equation model with the Analysis of Moment program. The participants were aged 53.44±13.19 years (mean±SD), and about 64% of them were male. The proposed model fit the data from the study well, explaining 19% and 60% of the variances in the stage of change and health behavior, respectively. The findings indicate that the performance of health behavior modification among the patients with cardiovascular disease can be explained by social support, health belief, and stage of change based on a health-belief and stage-of-change model. Further studies are warranted to confirm the efficacy of health-promoting strategies in initiating and maintaining the performance of health behaviors by providing social support from family and medical staff and enhancing health belief. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gaining power and precision by using model-based weights in the analysis of late stage cancer trials with substantial treatment switching.

PubMed

Bowden, Jack; Seaman, Shaun; Huang, Xin; White, Ian R

2016-04-30

In randomised controlled trials of treatments for late-stage cancer, it is common for control arm patients to receive the experimental treatment around the point of disease progression. This treatment switching can dilute the estimated treatment effect on overall survival and impact the assessment of a treatment's benefit on health economic evaluations. The rank-preserving structural failure time model of Robins and Tsiatis (Comm. Stat., 20:2609-2631) offers a potential solution to this problem and is typically implemented using the logrank test. However, in the presence of substantial switching, this test can have low power because the hazard ratio is not constant over time. Schoenfeld (Biometrika, 68:316-319) showed that when the hazard ratio is not constant, weighted versions of the logrank test become optimal. We present a weighted logrank test statistic for the late stage cancer trial context given the treatment switching pattern and working assumptions about the underlying hazard function in the population. Simulations suggest that the weighted approach can lead to large efficiency gains in either an intention-to-treat or a causal rank-preserving structural failure time model analysis compared with the unweighted approach. Furthermore, violation of the working assumptions used in the derivation of the weights only affects the efficiency of the estimates and does not induce bias or inflate the type I error rate. The weighted logrank test statistic should therefore be considered for use as part of a careful secondary, exploratory analysis of trial data affected by substantial treatment switching. ©2015 The Authors. Statistics inMedicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How quantitative measures unravel design principles in multi-stage phosphorylation cascades.

PubMed

Frey, Simone; Millat, Thomas; Hohmann, Stefan; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

2008-09-07

We investigate design principles of linear multi-stage phosphorylation cascades by using quantitative measures for signaling time, signal duration and signal amplitude. We compare alternative pathway structures by varying the number of phosphorylations and the length of the cascade. We show that a model for a weakly activated pathway does not reflect the biological context well, unless it is restricted to certain parameter combinations. Focusing therefore on a more general model, we compare alternative structures with respect to a multivariate optimization criterion. We test the hypothesis that the structure of a linear multi-stage phosphorylation cascade is the result of an optimization process aiming for a fast response, defined by the minimum of the product of signaling time and signal duration. It is then shown that certain pathway structures minimize this criterion. Several popular models of MAPK cascades form the basis of our study. These models represent different levels of approximation, which we compare and discuss with respect to the quantitative measures.

The role of phenotype structure in the population dynamics of gypsy moth in the Lower Dnieper region

Treesearch

Nikolaj M. Derevyanko

1991-01-01

One of the characteristic features of the gypsy moth population in the Lower Dnieper area is its variable larval coloring. Phenotype frequency has been recorded over the years in separate micropopulations at different density levels. The data show the population to consist mainly of gray larvae in all life stages, and their abundance varying from 85 to 99.6 percent....

Estimating cancer incidence, prevalence, and the number of cancer patients treated with antitumor therapy in 2015 and 2020 -  analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry.

PubMed

Dusek, L; Pavlík, T; Májek, O; Büchler, T; Muzik, J; Maluskova, D; Koptíková, J; Bortlicek, Z; Abrahámová, J

2015-01-01

Cancer burden in the Czech population ranks among the highest worldwide, which introduces a strong need for a prospective modelling of cancer incidence and prevalence rates. Moreover, a prediction of number of cancer patients requiring active antitumor therapy is also an important issue. This paper presents the stage-specific predictions of cancer incidence and prevalence, and the stage- and region-specific patients requiring active antitumor therapy for the most common cancer diagnoses in the Czech Republic for years 2015 and 2020. The stage-specific estimates are also presented with regard to the treatment phase as newly diagnosed patients, patients treated for non-terminal recurrence, and patients treated for terminal recurrence. Data of the Czech National Cancer Registry from 1977 to 2011 has been used for the analysis, omitting the records of patients diagnosed as death certificate only or at autopsy. In total, 1,777,775 incidences have been considered for the estimation using a statistical model utilizing solely the population-based cancer registry data. All estimates have been calculated with respect to the changing demographic structure of the Czech population and the clinical stage at diagnosis. Considering year 2011 as the baseline, we predict 89%, 15%, 31% and 32% increase in prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer incidence, respectively, in 2020 resulting in 13,153, 9,368, 8,695, and 8,604 newly dia-g--nosed cancer patients in that year, respectively. Regarding cancer prevalence in 2020, the estimated increase is 140%, 40%, 51%, and 17% for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer, respectively, meaning that more than 100,000 prevalent female breast cancer patients as well as more than 100,000 prevalent prostate cancer patients are expected in the Czech Republic. The estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer in the Czech Republic in 2020 are 23,652, 14,006, 14,759 and 8,272; respectively. The analysis documents a serious increase in cancer incidence and prevalence in the Czech Republic in years 2015 and 2020 when compared to the situation in 2011. Regarding the estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy, the model confirms a continuous increase that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.

Development of a new Rasch-based scoring algorithm for the National Eye Institute Visual Functioning Questionnaire to improve its interpretability.

PubMed

Petrillo, Jennifer; Bressler, Neil M; Lamoureux, Ecosse; Ferreira, Alberto; Cano, Stefan

2017-08-14

The NEI VFQ-25 has undergone psychometric evaluation in patients with varying ocular conditions and the general population. However, important limitations which may affect the interpretation of clinical trial results have been previously identified, such as concerns with reliability and validity. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the National Eye Institute Visual Functioning Questionnaire (NEI VFQ-25) and make recommendations for a revised scoring structure, with a view to improving its psychometric performance and interpretability. Rasch Measurement Theory analyses were conducted in two stages using pooled baseline NEI VFQ-25 data for 2487 participants with retinal diseases enrolled in six clinical trials. In stage 1, we examined: scale-to-sample targeting; thresholds for item response options; item fit statistics; stability; local dependence; and reliability. In stage 2, a post-hoc revision of the scoring structure (VFQ-28R) was created and psychometrically re-evaluated. In stage 1, we found that the NEI VFQ-25 was mis-targeted to the sample, and had disordered response thresholds (15/25 items) and mis-fitting items (8/25 items). However, items appeared to be stable (differential item functioning for three items), have minimal item dependency (one pair of items) and good reliability (person-separation index, 0.93). In stage 2, the modified Rasch-scored NEI VFQ-28-R was assessed. It comprised two broad domains: Activity Limitation (19 items) and Socio-Emotional Functioning (nine items). The NEI VFQ-28-R demonstrated improved performance with fewer disordered response thresholds (no items), less item misfit (three items) and improved population targeting (reduced ceiling effect) compared with the NEI VFQ-25. Compared with the original version, the proposed NEI VFQ-28-R, with Rasch-based scoring and a two-domain structure, appears to offer improved psychometric performance and interpretability of the vision-related quality of life scale for the population analysed.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Salmon Life Cycle Models Illuminate Population Consequences of Disparate Survival and Behavior Between Hatchery- and Wild-Origin Fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beakes, M.; Satterthwaite, W.; Petrik, C.; Hendrix, N.; Danner, E.; Lindley, S. T.

2016-02-01

In past decades there has been a heavy reliance on the production of hatchery-reared fish to supplement declining population numbers of Pacific salmon. In some cases, the benefits of hatchery supplementation have been negligible despite concerted long-term stocking efforts. The management and conservation of depressed salmon populations, via hatchery practices or otherwise, can be improved by expanding our understanding of the dissimilarities between hatchery and wild salmon and how each interacts with the environment. In this study we use a stage-structured salmon life-cycle model to explore the population consequences of disparate survival and behavior between hatchery and wild-origin fall-run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley. We couple empirically-based statistical functions with deterministic theoretical models to identify how environmental conditions (e.g., water temperature, flow) and habitat drive the survival and abundance of both hatchery and wild salmon as they integrate across riverscapes and cross marine and freshwater ecosystem boundaries during their life cycle. Results from this study suggest that hatchery practices can lead to dissimilar interactions between hatchery and wild salmon and the environmental conditions they experience. As such, the population dynamics of fall-run Chinook Salmon in the California Central Valley are partly dependent on the composition of individuals that make up their populations. In total, this study improves out ability to conserve imperiled salmonids by identifying mechanistic linkages between the natal origin of salmon, survival and behavior, and the environment at spatiotemporal scales relevant to salmon populations and fisheries management.

Investigating Stage-Sequential Growth Mixture Models with Multiphase Longitudinal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Su-Young; Kim, Jee-Seon

2012-01-01

This article investigates three types of stage-sequential growth mixture models in the structural equation modeling framework for the analysis of multiple-phase longitudinal data. These models can be important tools for situations in which a single-phase growth mixture model produces distorted results and can allow researchers to better understand…

Identifying the most appropriate age threshold for TNM stage grouping of well-differentiated thyroid cancer.

PubMed

Hendrickson-Rebizant, J; Sigvaldason, H; Nason, R W; Pathak, K A

2015-08-01

Age is integrated in most risk stratification systems for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC). The most appropriate age threshold for stage grouping of WDTC is debatable. The objective of this study was to evaluate the best age threshold for stage grouping by comparing multivariable models designed to evaluate the independent impact of various prognostic factors, including age based stage grouping, on the disease specific survival (DSS) of our population-based cohort. Data from population-based thyroid cancer cohort of 2125 consecutive WDTC, diagnosed during 1970-2010, with a median follow-up of 11.5 years, was used to calculate DSS using the Kaplan Meier method. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess independent impact of different prognostic factors on DSS. The Akaike information criterion (AIC), a measure of statistical model fit, was used to identify the most appropriate age threshold model. Delta AIC, Akaike weight, and evidence ratios were calculated to compare the relative strength of different models. The mean age of the patients was 47.3 years. DSS of the cohort was 95.6% and 92.8% at 10 and 20 years respectively. A threshold of 55 years, with the lowest AIC, was identified as the best model. Akaike weight indicated an 85% chance that this age threshold is the best among the compared models, and is 16.8 times more likely to be the best model as compared to a threshold of 45 years. The age threshold of 55 years was found to be the best for TNM stage grouping. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes of microbial population structure related to lignin degradation during lignocellulosic waste composting.

PubMed

Huang, Dan-Lian; Zeng, Guang-Ming; Feng, Chong-Ling; Hu, Shuang; Lai, Cui; Zhao, Mei-Hua; Su, Feng-Feng; Tang, Lin; Liu, Hong-Liang

2010-06-01

Microbial populations and their relationship to bioconversion during lignocellulosic waste composting were studied by quinone profiling. Nine quinones were observed in the initial composting materials, and 15 quinones were found in compost after 50days of composting. The quinone species Q-9(H2), Q-10 and Q-10(H2) which are indicative of certain fungi appeared at the thermophilic stage but disappeared at the cooling stage. Q-10, indicative of certain fungi, and MK-7, characteristic of certain bacteria, were the predominant quinones during the thermophilic stage and were correlated with lignin degradation at the thermophilic stage. The highest lignin degradation ratio (26%) and good cellulose degradation were found at the cooling stage and were correlated with quinones Q-9, MK-7 and long-chain menaquinones attributed to mesophilic fungi, bacteria and actinomycetes, respectively. The present findings will improve the understandings of microbial dynamics and roles in composting, which could provide useful references for development of composting technology. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Complex small pelagic fish population patterns arising from individual behavioral responses to their environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochier, Timothée; Auger, Pierre-Amaël; Pecquerie, Laure; Machu, Eric; Capet, Xavier; Thiaw, Modou; Mbaye, Baye Cheikh; Braham, Cheikh-Baye; Ettahiri, Omar; Charouki, Najib; Sène, Ousseynou Ndaw; Werner, Francisco; Brehmer, Patrice

2018-05-01

Small pelagic fish (SPF) species are heavily exploited in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) as their transformation products are increasingly used in the world's food chain. Management relies on regular monitoring, but there is a lack of robust theories for the emergence of the populations' traits and their evolution in highly variable environments. This work aims to address existing knowledge gaps by combining physical and biogeochemical modelling with an individual life-cycle based model applied to round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) off northwest Africa, a key species for regional food security. Our approach focused on the processes responsible for seasonal migrations, spatio-temporal size-structure, and interannual biomass fluctuations. Emergence of preferred habitat resulted from interactions between natal homing behavior and environmental variability that impacts early life stages. Exploration of the environment by the fishes was determined by swimming capabilities, mesoscale to regional habitat structure, and horizontal currents. Fish spatio-temporal abundance variability emerged from a complex combination of distinct life-history traits. An alongshore gradient in fish size distributions is reported and validated by in situ measurements. New insights into population structure are provided, within an area where the species is abundant year-round (Mauritania) and with latitudinal migrations of variable (300-1200 km) amplitude. Interannual biomass fluctuations were linked to modulations of fish recruitment over the Sahara Bank driven by variability in alongshore current intensity. The identified processes constitute an analytical framework that can be implemented in other EBUS and used to explore impacts of regional climate change on SPF.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Computational Methods Used in Hit-to-Lead and Lead Optimization Stages of Structure-Based Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Heifetz, Alexander; Southey, Michelle; Morao, Inaki; Townsend-Nicholson, Andrea; Bodkin, Mike J

2018-01-01

GPCR modeling approaches are widely used in the hit-to-lead (H2L) and lead optimization (LO) stages of drug discovery. The aims of these modeling approaches are to predict the 3D structures of the receptor-ligand complexes, to explore the key interactions between the receptor and the ligand and to utilize these insights in the design of new molecules with improved binding, selectivity or other pharmacological properties. In this book chapter, we present a brief survey of key computational approaches integrated with hierarchical GPCR modeling protocol (HGMP) used in hit-to-lead (H2L) and in lead optimization (LO) stages of structure-based drug discovery (SBDD). We outline the differences in modeling strategies used in H2L and LO of SBDD and illustrate how these tools have been applied in three drug discovery projects.

Investigating the effect of invasion characteristics on onion thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) populations in onions with a temperature-driven process model.

PubMed

Mo, Jianhua; Stevens, Mark; Liu, De Li; Herron, Grant

2009-12-01

A temperature-driven process model was developed to describe the seasonal patterns of populations of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman, in onions. The model used daily cohorts (individuals of the same developmental stage and daily age) as the population unit. Stage transitions were modeled as a logistic function of accumulated degree-days to account for variability in development rate among individuals. Daily survival was modeled as a logistic function of daily mean temperature. Parameters for development, survival, and fecundity were estimated from published data. A single invasion event was used to initiate the population process, starting at 1-100 d after onion emergence (DAE) for 10-100 d at the daily rate of 0.001-0.9 adults/plant/d. The model was validated against five observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations from two unsprayed sites in the Riverina, New South Wales, Australia, during 2003-2006. Performance of the model was measured by a fit index based on the proportion of variations in observed data explained by the model (R (2)) and the differences in total thrips-days between observed and predicted populations. Satisfactory matching between simulated and observed seasonal patterns was obtained within the ranges of invasion parameters tested. Model best-fit was obtained at invasion starting dates of 6-98 DAE with a daily invasion rate of 0.002-0.2 adults/plant/d and an invasion duration of 30-100 d. Under the best-fit invasion scenarios, the model closely reproduced the observed seasonal patterns, explaining 73-95% of variability in adult and larval densities during population increase periods. The results showed that small invasions of adult thrips followed by a gradual population build-up of thrips within onion crops were sufficient to bring about the observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations in onion. Implications of the model on timing of chemical controls are discussed.

Predicting Effects of Coastal Acidification on Marine Bivalve ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is increasing in the oceans and causing changes in seawater pH commonly described as ocean or coastal acidification. It is now well-established that, when reproduced in laboratory experiments, these increases in pCO2 can reduce survival and growth of early life stage bivalves. However, the effects that these impairments would have on whole populations of bivalves are unknown. In this study, these laboratory responses were incorporated into field-parameterized population models to assess population-level sensitivities to acidification for two northeast bivalve species with different life histories: Mercenaria mercenaria (hard clam) and Argopecten irradians (bay scallop). The resulting models permitted translation of laboratory pCO2 response functions into population-level responses to examine population sensitivity to future pCO2 changes. Preliminary results from our models indicate that if the current M. mercenaria negative population growth rate was attributed to the effects of pCO2 on early life stages, the population would decline at a rate of 50% per ten years at 420 microatmospheres (µatm) pCO2. If the current population growth rate was attributed to other additive factors (e.g., harvest, harmful algal blooms), M. mercenaria populations were predicted to decline at a rate of 50% per ten years at the preliminary estimate of 1010 µatm pCO2. The estimated population growth rate was positive for A. irradians,

Modelling the initial phase of an epidemic using incidence and infection network data: 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Israel as a case study

PubMed Central

Katriel, G.; Yaari, R.; Huppert, A.; Roll, U.; Stone, L.

2011-01-01

This paper presents new computational and modelling tools for studying the dynamics of an epidemic in its initial stages that use both available incidence time series and data describing the population's infection network structure. The work is motivated by data collected at the beginning of the H1N1 pandemic outbreak in Israel in the summer of 2009. We formulated a new discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that explicitly takes into account the disease's specific generation-time distribution and the intrinsic demographic stochasticity inherent to the infection process. Moreover, in contrast with many other modelling approaches, the model allows direct analytical derivation of estimates for the effective reproductive number (Re) and of their credible intervals, by maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The basic model can be extended to include age–class structure, and a maximum likelihood methodology allows us to estimate the model's next-generation matrix by combining two types of data: (i) the incidence series of each age group, and (ii) infection network data that provide partial information of ‘who-infected-who’. Unlike other approaches for estimating the next-generation matrix, the method developed here does not require making a priori assumptions about the structure of the next-generation matrix. We show, using a simulation study, that even a relatively small amount of information about the infection network greatly improves the accuracy of estimation of the next-generation matrix. The method is applied in practice to estimate the next-generation matrix from the Israeli H1N1 pandemic data. The tools developed here should be of practical importance for future investigations of epidemics during their initial stages. However, they require the availability of data which represent a random sample of the real epidemic process. We discuss the conditions under which reporting rates may or may not influence our estimated quantities and the effects of bias. PMID:21247949

An improved protocol that induces human embryonic stem cells to differentiate into neural cells in vitro.

PubMed

Zhou, Jun-Mei; Chu, Jian-Xin; Chen, Xue-Jin

2008-01-01

Human embryonic stem (ES) cells have the capacity for self-renewal and are able to differentiate into any cell type. However, obtaining high-efficient neural differentiation from human ES cells remains a challenge. This study describes an improved 4-stage protocol to induce a human ES cell line derived from a Chinese population to differentiate into neural cells. At the first stage, embryonic bodies (EBs) were formed in a chemically-defined neural inducing medium rather than in traditional serum or serum-replacement medium. At the second stage, rosette-like structures were formed. At the third stage, the rosette-like structures were manually selected rather than enzymatically digested to form floating neurospheres. At the fourth stage, the neurospheres were further differentiated into neurons. The results show that, at the second stage, the rate of the formation of rosette-like structures from EBs induced by noggin was 88+/-6.32%, higher than that of retinoic acid 55+/-5.27%. Immunocytochemistry staining was used to confirm the neural identity of the cells. These results show a major improvement in obtaining efficient neural differentiation of human ES cells.

[Future status of ischaemic heart disease in the state of San Luis Potosí: A predictive dynamic model].

PubMed

Gaytán-Hernández, Darío; Díaz-Oviedo, Aracely; Gallegos-García, Verónica; Terán-Figueroa, Yolanda

To develop a predictive dynamic model to generate and analyse the future status of the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease in a population of 25 years and over in Mexico, according to the variation in time of some risk factors. Retrospective ecological study performed during the period 2013-2015, in San Luis Potosí City, Mexico. Secondary databases that corresponded to the years 2000, 2005, and 2010, were used along with official indicators of the 58 municipalities of the state of San Luis Potosí. Eight indicators were analysed at municipality level, using principal components analysis, structural equation modelling, dynamic modelling, and simulation software methods. Three components were extracted, which together explained 80.43% of the total variance of the official indicators used. The second component had a weight of 16.36 units that favoured an increase of the disease analysed. This component was integrated only by the indicator AGE 60-64 and the expected stage of it increasing. The structural model confirmed that the indicators explain 42% of the variation of this disease. The possible stages for the years 2015, 2020, and 2025 are 195.7, 240.7, and 298.0, respectively for every 100,000 inhabitants aged 25 and over. An exponential increase in the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease is expected, with the age of 60-64 years being identified as the highest risk factor. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

Larval dispersal underlies demographically important inter-system connectivity in a Great Lakes yellow perch (Perca flavescens) population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brodnik, Reed M.; Fraker, Michael E.; Anderson, Eric J.; Carreon-Martinez, Lucia; DeVanna, Kristen M.; Heath, Dan D.; Reichert, Julie M.; Roseman, Edward F.; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2016-01-01

Ability to quantify connectivity among spawning subpopulations and their relative contribution of recruits to the broader population is a critical fisheries management need. By combining microsatellite and age information from larval yellow perch (Perca flavescens) collected in the Lake St. Clair – Detroit River system (SC-DRS) and western Lake Erie with a hydrodynamic backtracking approach, we quantified subpopulation structure, connectivity, and contributions of recruits to the juvenile stage in western Lake Erie during 2006-2007. After finding weak (yet stable) genetic structure between the SC-DRS and two western Lake Erie subpopulations, microsatellites also revealed measurable recruitment of SC-DRS larvae to the juvenile stage in western Lake Erie (17-21% during 2006-2007). Consideration of pre-collection larval dispersal trajectories, using hydrodynamic backtracking, increased estimated contributions to 65% in 2006 and 57% in 2007. Our findings highlight the value of complementing subpopulation discrimination methods with hydrodynamic predictions of larval dispersal by revealing the SC-DRS as a source of recruits to western Lake Erie and also showing that connectivity through larval dispersal can affect the structure and dynamics of large-lake fish populations.

Ecology of Root Colonizing Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae)

PubMed Central

Ofek, Maya; Hadar, Yitzhak; Minz, Dror

2012-01-01

Background Ecologically meaningful classification of bacterial populations is essential for understanding the structure and function of bacterial communities. As in soils, the ecological strategy of the majority of root-colonizing bacteria is mostly unknown. Among those are Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae), a major group of rhizosphere and root colonizing bacteria of many plant species. Methodology/Principal Findings The ecology of Massilia was explored in cucumber root and seed, and compared to that of Agrobacterium population, using culture-independent tools, including DNA-based pyrosequencing, fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative real-time PCR. Seed- and root-colonizing Massilia were primarily affiliated with other members of the genus described in soil and rhizosphere. Massilia colonized and proliferated on the seed coat, radicle, roots, and also on hyphae of phytopathogenic Pythium aphanidermatum infecting seeds. High variation in Massilia abundance was found in relation to plant developmental stage, along with sensitivity to plant growth medium modification (amendment with organic matter) and potential competitors. Massilia absolute abundance and relative abundance (dominance) were positively related, and peaked (up to 85%) at early stages of succession of the root microbiome. In comparison, variation in abundance of Agrobacterium was moderate and their dominance increased at later stages of succession. Conclusions In accordance with contemporary models for microbial ecology classification, copiotrophic and competition-sensitive root colonization by Massilia is suggested. These bacteria exploit, in a transient way, a window of opportunity within the succession of communities within this niche. PMID:22808103

A Study of the Frequency and Social Determinants of Exposure to Cancer-Related Direct-to-Consumer Advertising Among Breast, Prostate, and Colorectal Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Tan, Andy SL

2014-01-01

Cancer-related direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) is controversial because cancer treatment is complex and entails more risks and costs than typical treatments that are advertised for other conditions. Drawing from the Structural Influence Model of Communication, this study explores communication inequalities in DTCA exposure across social determinants among a population-based sample of 2013 patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, or colorectal cancers. Three survey items assessed patients' frequency of encountering ads concerning treatment alternatives for cancer, dealing with side effects of treatment, and doctors or hospitals offering services for cancer following their diagnosis. The analysis showed that overall exposure to DTCA in this study population was modest (median was once per week). Breast cancer patients reported significantly higher exposure to all three ad categories and overall DTCA exposure than prostate and colorectal cancer patients. Older patients consistently reported lower overall exposure to DTCA across the three cancer types. Other significant correlates included ethnicity (higher exposures among African-American prostate cancer patients vs. white; lower exposures in Hispanic colorectal cancer patients vs. white), and cancer stage (higher exposures in stage IV prostate cancer patients vs. stages 0-II). Education level did not predict patients' DTCA exposure. The implications of these observed inequalities in DTCA exposure on cancer outcomes are discussed. PMID:25357119

A Study of the Frequency and Social Determinants of Exposure to Cancer-Related Direct-to-Consumer Advertising Among Breast, Prostate, and Colorectal Cancer Patients.

PubMed

Tan, Andy S L

2015-01-01

Cancer-related direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) is controversial because cancer treatment is complex and entails more risks and costs than typical treatments that are advertised for other conditions. Drawing from the Structural Influence Model of Communication, this study explores communication inequalities in DTCA exposure across social determinants among a population-based sample of 2013 patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, or colorectal cancers. Three survey items assessed patients' frequency of encountering ads concerning treatment alternatives for cancer, dealing with side effects of treatment, and doctors or hospitals offering services for cancer following their diagnosis. The analysis showed that overall exposure to DTCA in this study population was modest (median was once per week). Breast cancer patients reported significantly higher exposure to all three ad categories and overall DTCA exposure than prostate and colorectal cancer patients. Older patients consistently reported lower overall exposure to DTCA across the three cancer types. Other significant correlates included ethnicity (higher exposures among African American prostate cancer patients vs. White; lower exposures in Hispanic colorectal cancer patients vs. White) and cancer stage (higher exposures in Stage IV prostate cancer patients vs. Stages 0-II). Education level did not predict patients' DTCA exposure. The implications of these observed inequalities in DTCA exposure on cancer outcomes are discussed.

Development and Validation of the Cognitive Behavioral Physical Activity Questionnaire.

PubMed

Schembre, Susan M; Durand, Casey P; Blissmer, Bryan J; Greene, Geoffrey W

2015-01-01

Develop and demonstrate preliminary validation of a brief questionnaire aimed at assessing social cognitive determinants of physical activity (PA) in a college population. Quantitative and observational. A midsized northeastern university. Convenience sample of 827 male and female college students age 18 to 24 years. International Physical Activity Questionnaire and a PA stage-of-change algorithm. A sequential process of survey development, including item generation and data reduction analyses by factor analysis, was followed with the goal of creating a parsimonious questionnaire. Structural equation modeling was used for confirmatory factor analysis and construct validation was confirmed against self-reported PA and stage of change. Validation analyses were replicated in a second, independent sample of 1032 college students. Fifteen items reflecting PA self-regulation, outcome expectations, and personal barriers explained 65% of the questionnaire data and explained 28.6% and 39.5% of the variance in total PA and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA, respectively. Scale scores were distinguishable across the stages of change. Findings were similar when the Cognitive Behavioral Physical Activity Questionnaire (CBPAQ) was tested in a similar and independent sample of college students (40%; R (2) moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA = .40; p < .001). The CBPAQ successfully explains and predicts PA behavior in a college population, warranting its incorporation into future studies aiming at understanding and improving on PA behavior in college students.

Ecology of root colonizing Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae).

PubMed

Ofek, Maya; Hadar, Yitzhak; Minz, Dror

2012-01-01

Ecologically meaningful classification of bacterial populations is essential for understanding the structure and function of bacterial communities. As in soils, the ecological strategy of the majority of root-colonizing bacteria is mostly unknown. Among those are Massilia (Oxalobacteraceae), a major group of rhizosphere and root colonizing bacteria of many plant species. The ecology of Massilia was explored in cucumber root and seed, and compared to that of Agrobacterium population, using culture-independent tools, including DNA-based pyrosequencing, fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative real-time PCR. Seed- and root-colonizing Massilia were primarily affiliated with other members of the genus described in soil and rhizosphere. Massilia colonized and proliferated on the seed coat, radicle, roots, and also on hyphae of phytopathogenic Pythium aphanidermatum infecting seeds. High variation in Massilia abundance was found in relation to plant developmental stage, along with sensitivity to plant growth medium modification (amendment with organic matter) and potential competitors. Massilia absolute abundance and relative abundance (dominance) were positively related, and peaked (up to 85%) at early stages of succession of the root microbiome. In comparison, variation in abundance of Agrobacterium was moderate and their dominance increased at later stages of succession. In accordance with contemporary models for microbial ecology classification, copiotrophic and competition-sensitive root colonization by Massilia is suggested. These bacteria exploit, in a transient way, a window of opportunity within the succession of communities within this niche.

Research and development of a digital design system for hull structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Yi-Ting; Ji, Zhuo-Shang; Liu, Yin-Dong

2007-06-01

Methods used for digital ship design were studied and formed the basis of a proposed frame model suitable for ship construction modeling. Based on 3-D modeling software, a digital design system for hull structures was developed. Basic software systems for modeling, modifying, and assembly simulation were developed. The system has good compatibility, and models created by it can be saved in different 3-D file formats, and 2D engineering drawings can be output directly. The model can be modified dynamically, overcoming the necessity of repeated modifications during hull structural design. Through operations such as model construction, intervention inspection, and collision detection, problems can be identified and modified during the hull structural design stage. Technologies for centralized control of the system, database management, and 3-D digital design are integrated into this digital model in the preliminary design stage of shipbuilding.

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goel, A., E-mail: goelanju23@gmail.com; Gakkhar, S., E-mail: sungkfma@iitr.ernet.in

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. Themore » effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.« less

Breast cancer survival and stage at diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK, 2000-2007: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Walters, S; Maringe, C; Butler, J; Rachet, B; Barrett-Lee, P; Bergh, J; Boyages, J; Christiansen, P; Lee, M; Wärnberg, F; Allemani, C; Engholm, G; Fornander, T; Gjerstorff, M L; Johannesen, T B; Lawrence, G; McGahan, C E; Middleton, R; Steward, J; Tracey, E; Turner, D; Richards, M A; Coleman, M P

2013-01-01

Background: We investigate whether differences in breast cancer survival in six high-income countries can be explained by differences in stage at diagnosis using routine data from population-based cancer registries. Methods: We analysed the data on 257 362 women diagnosed with breast cancer during 2000–7 and registered in 13 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Flexible parametric hazard models were used to estimate net survival and the excess hazard of dying from breast cancer up to 3 years after diagnosis. Results: Age-standardised 3-year net survival was 87–89% in the UK and Denmark, and 91–94% in the other four countries. Stage at diagnosis was relatively advanced in Denmark: only 30% of women had Tumour, Nodes, Metastasis (TNM) stage I disease, compared with 42–45% elsewhere. Women in the UK had low survival for TNM stage III–IV disease compared with other countries. Conclusion: International differences in breast cancer survival are partly explained by differences in stage at diagnosis, and partly by differences in stage-specific survival. Low overall survival arises if the stage distribution is adverse (e.g. Denmark) but stage-specific survival is normal; or if the stage distribution is typical but stage-specific survival is low (e.g. UK). International differences in staging diagnostics and stage-specific cancer therapies should be investigated. PMID:23449362

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richard, A. L.; Crawford, H. L.; Fallon, P.

The “island of inversion” at N≈20 for the neon, sodium, and magnesium isotopes has long been an area of interest both experimentally and theoretically due to the subtle competition between 0p-0h and np-nh configurations leading to deformed shapes. However, the presence of rotational band structures, which are fingerprints of deformed shapes, have only recently been observed in this region. In this work, we report on a measurement of the low-lying level structure of Mg33 populated by a two-stage projectile fragmentation reaction and studied with the Gamma Ray Energy Tracking In-Beam Nuclear Array (GRETINA). The experimental level energies, ground-state magnetic moment,more » intrinsic quadrupole moment, and γ-ray intensities show good agreement with the strong-coupling limit of a rotational model.« less

Single generation cycles and delayed feedback cycles are not separate phenomena.

PubMed

Pfaff, T; Brechtel, A; Drossel, B; Guill, C

2014-12-01

We study a simple model for generation cycles, which are oscillations with a period of one or a few generation times of the species. The model is formulated in terms of a single delay-differential equation for the population density of an adult stage, with recruitment to the adult stage depending on the intensity of competition during the juvenile phase. This model is a simplified version of a group of models proposed by Gurney and Nisbet, who were the first to distinguish between single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles. According to these authors, the two oscillation types are caused by different mechanisms and have periods in different intervals, which are one to two generation times for single-generation cycles and two to four generation times for delayed-feedback cycles. By abolishing the strict coupling between the maturation time and the time delay between competition and its effect on the population dynamics, we find that single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles occur in the same model version, with a gradual transition between the two as the model parameters are varied over a sufficiently large range. Furthermore, cycle periods are not bounded to lie within single octaves. This implies that a clear distinction between different types of generation cycles is not possible. Cycles of all periods and even chaos can be generated by varying the parameters that determine the time during which individuals from different cohorts compete with each other. This suggests that life-cycle features in the juvenile stage and during the transition to the adult stage are important determinants of the dynamics of density limited populations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

2016-05-01

Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

Fine-scale population structure of Malays in Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore and implications for association studies.

PubMed

Hoh, Boon-Peng; Deng, Lian; Julia-Ashazila, Mat Jusoh; Zuraihan, Zakaria; Nur-Hasnah, Ma'amor; Nur-Shafawati, Ab Rajab; Hatin, Wan Isa; Endom, Ismail; Zilfalil, Bin Alwi; Khalid, Yusoff; Xu, Shuhua

2015-07-22

Fine scale population structure of Malays - the major population in Malaysia, has not been well studied. This may have important implications for both evolutionary and medical studies. Here, we investigated the population sub-structure of Malay involving 431 samples collected from all states from peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. We identified two major clusters of individuals corresponding to the north and south peninsular Malaysia. On an even finer scale, the genetic coordinates of the geographical Malay populations are in correlation with the latitudes (R(2) = 0.3925; P = 0.029). This finding is further supported by the pairwise FST of Malay sub-populations, of which the north and south regions showed the highest differentiation (FST [North-south] = 0.0011). The collective findings therefore suggest that population sub-structure of Malays are more heterogenous than previously expected even within a small geographical region, possibly due to factors like different genetic origins, geographical isolation, could result in spurious association as demonstrated in our analysis. We suggest that cautions should be taken during the stage of study design or interpreting the association signals in disease mapping studies which are expected to be conducted in Malay population in the near future.

Age, stage and senescence in plants

PubMed Central

Caswell, Hal; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto

2013-01-01

1. Senescence (an increase in the mortality rate or force of mortality, or a decrease in fertility, with increasing age) is a widespread phenomenon. Theories about the evolution of senescence have long focused on the age trajectories of the selection gradients on mortality and fertility. In purely age-classified models, these selection gradients are non-increasing with age, implying that traits expressed early in life have a greater impact on fitness than traits expressed later in life. This pattern leads inevitably to the evolution of senescence if there are trade-offs between early and late performance. 2. It has long been suspected that the stage- or size-dependent demography typical of plants might change these conclusions. In this paper, we develop a model that includes both stage- and age-dependence and derive the age-dependent, stage-dependent and age×stage-dependent selection gradients on mortality and fertility. 3. We applied this model to stage-classified population projection matrices for 36 species of plants, from a wide variety of growth forms (from mosses to trees) and habitats. 4. We found that the age-specific selection gradients within a life cycle stage can exhibit increases with age (we call these contra-senescent selection gradients). In later stages, often large size classes in plant demography, the duration of these contra-senescent gradients can exceed the life expectancy by several fold. 5. Synthesis. The interaction of age- and stage-dependence in plants leads to selection pressures on senescence fundamentally different from those found in previous, age-classified theories. This result may explain the observation that large plants seem less subject to senescence than most kinds of animals. The methods presented here can lead to improved analysis of both age-dependent and stage-dependent demographic properties of plant populations. PMID:23741075

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

A multi-stage compartmental model for HIV-infected individuals: II--application to insurance functions and health-care costs.

PubMed

Billard, L; Dayananda, P W A

2014-03-01

Stochastic population processes have received a lot of attention over the years. One approach focuses on compartmental modeling. Billard and Dayananda (2012) developed one such multi-stage model for epidemic processes in which the possibility that individuals can die at any stage from non-disease related causes was also included. This extra feature is of particular interest to the insurance and health-care industries among others especially when the epidemic is HIV/AIDS. Rather than working with numbers of individuals in each stage, they obtained distributional results dealing with the waiting time any one individual spent in each stage given the initial stage. In this work, the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on several functions relevant to these industries (such as adjustments to premiums) is investigated. Theoretical results are derived, followed by a numerical study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less

Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models.

PubMed

Ball, Frank; Britton, Tom; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo

2015-03-01

This paper considers metapopulation models in the general sense, i.e. where the population is partitioned into sub-populations (groups, patches,...), irrespective of the biological interpretation they have, e.g. spatially segregated large sub-populations, small households or hosts themselves modelled as populations of pathogens. This framework has traditionally provided an attractive approach to incorporating more realistic contact structure into epidemic models, since it often preserves analytic tractability (in stochastic as well as deterministic models) but also captures the most salient structural inhomogeneity in contact patterns in many applied contexts. Despite the progress that has been made in both the theory and application of such metapopulation models, we present here several major challenges that remain for future work, focusing on models that, in contrast to agent-based ones, are amenable to mathematical analysis. The challenges range from clarifying the usefulness of systems of weakly-coupled large sub-populations in modelling the spread of specific diseases to developing a theory for endemic models with household structure. They include also developing inferential methods for data on the emerging phase of epidemics, extending metapopulation models to more complex forms of human social structure, developing metapopulation models to reflect spatial population structure, developing computationally efficient methods for calculating key epidemiological model quantities, and integrating within- and between-host dynamics in models. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using qualitative methods to develop a contextually tailored instrument: Lessons learned.

PubMed

Lee, Haeok; Kiang, Peter; Kim, Minjin; Semino-Asaro, Semira; Colten, Mary Ellen; Tang, Shirley S; Chea, Phala; Peou, Sonith; Grigg-Saito, Dorcas C

2015-01-01

To develop a population-specific instrument to inform hepatitis B virus (HBV) and human papilloma virus (HPV) prevention education and intervention based on data and evidence obtained from the targeted population of Khmer mothers reflecting their socio-cultural and health behaviors. The principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR) guided the development of a standardized survey interview. Four stages of development and testing of the survey instrument took place in order to inform the quantitative health survey used to collect data in stage five of the project. This article reports only on Stages 1-4. This process created a new quantitative measure of HBV and HPV prevention behavior based on the revised Network Episode Model and informed by the targeted population. The CBPR method facilitated the application and translation of abstract theoretical ideas of HBV and HPV prevention behavior into culturally-relevant words and expressions of Cambodian Americans (CAs). The design of an instrument development process that accounts for distinctive socio-cultural backgrounds of CA refugee/immigrant women provides a model for use in developing future health surveys that are intended to aid minority-serving health care professionals and researchers as well as targeted minority populations.

Using qualitative methods to develop a contextually tailored instrument: Lessons learned

PubMed Central

Lee, Haeok; Kiang, Peter; Kim, Minjin; Semino-Asaro, Semira; Colten, Mary Ellen; Tang, Shirley S.; Chea, Phala; Peou, Sonith; Grigg-Saito, Dorcas C.

2015-01-01

Objective: To develop a population-specific instrument to inform hepatitis B virus (HBV) and human papilloma virus (HPV) prevention education and intervention based on data and evidence obtained from the targeted population of Khmer mothers reflecting their socio-cultural and health behaviors. Methods: The principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR) guided the development of a standardized survey interview. Four stages of development and testing of the survey instrument took place in order to inform the quantitative health survey used to collect data in stage five of the project. This article reports only on Stages 1-4. Results: This process created a new quantitative measure of HBV and HPV prevention behavior based on the revised Network Episode Model and informed by the targeted population. The CBPR method facilitated the application and translation of abstract theoretical ideas of HBV and HPV prevention behavior into culturally-relevant words and expressions of Cambodian Americans (CAs). Conclusions: The design of an instrument development process that accounts for distinctive socio-cultural backgrounds of CA refugee/immigrant women provides a model for use in developing future health surveys that are intended to aid minority-serving health care professionals and researchers as well as targeted minority populations. PMID:27981114

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Halpern, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stages of change and stuttering: a preliminary view.

PubMed

Floyd, Jennifer; Zebrowski, Patricia M; Flamme, Gregory A

2007-01-01

As a way to better understand the process of change that occurs in stuttering, Craig [Craig, A. (1998). Relapse following treatment for stuttering: a critical review and correlative data. Journal of Fluency Disorders, 23, 1-30] compared the behavioral changes that people who stutter often experience with and without treatment to those that have been observed for certain (non)addictive behavior disorders such as smoking, overeating, phobia and anxiety disorder. The process underlying these behavioral changes has been described by the transtheoretical or "stages of change" model, which is a model of behavior change that can illuminate "where" a person is in the process of change, and how this may relate to the outcome of either treatment or self-change attempts [Prochaska, J. O., & DiClemente, C. C. (1986). The transtheoretical approach. In J. C. Norcross (Ed.), Handbook of eclectic psychotherapy. New York: Brunner/Mazel]. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the extent to which the responses of adults who stutter on a modified Stages of Change Questionnaire yield interrelations among questionnaire items that are consistent with a stage-based interpretation. Results of both confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses indicated that while the modified questionnaire was a relatively good fit for participant responses, the structure derived from the exploratory analysis provided a significantly better fit to the observed data. Results suggest that a questionnaire incorporating items that better reflect the unique behavioral, cognitive and affective variables that characterize stuttering may better discriminate stages of change in people who stutter as they move through therapy, or are engaged in self-directed change. After reading this paper, the learner will be able to: (1) describe the transtheoretical or "stages of change" model; (2) describe the various processes that are associated with different stages of change; (3) summarize research findings in stages of change as they apply to a variety of clinical populations; (4) discuss the applicability of the findings from the present study to stuttering treatment, and (5) relate conventional strategies and techniques used in stuttering therapy to different stages in the process of change.

Family Structure and Income during the Stages of Childhood and Subsequent Prosocial Behavior in Young Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bandy, Robert; Ottoni-Wilhelm, Mark

2012-01-01

This study investigated whether family structure transition and low income are risk factors in the development of prosocial behavior. Models of young adults' prosocial behavior--charitable giving and volunteering--were estimated as functions of their family structure and income during the stages of childhood. Participants were a representative…

Major shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal

PubMed Central

Assis, J.; Berecibar, E.; Claro, B.; Alberto, F.; Reed, D.; Raimondi, P.; Serrão, E. A.

2017-01-01

Global climate change is likely to constrain low latitude range edges across many taxa and habitats. Such is the case for NE Atlantic marine macroalgal forests, important ecosystems whose main structuring species is the annual kelp Saccorhiza polyschides. We coupled ecological niche modelling with simulations of potential dispersal and delayed development stages to infer the major forces shaping range edges and to predict their dynamics. Models indicated that the southern limit is set by high winter temperatures above the physiological tolerance of overwintering microscopic stages and reduced upwelling during recruitment. The best range predictions were achieved assuming low spatial dispersal (5 km) and delayed stages up to two years (temporal dispersal). Reconstructing distributions through time indicated losses of ~30% from 1986 to 2014, restricting S. polyschides to upwelling regions at the southern edge. Future predictions further restrict populations to a unique refugium in northwestern Iberia. Losses were dependent on the emissions scenario, with the most drastic one shifting ~38% of the current distribution by 2100. Such distributional changes might not be rescued by dispersal in space or time (as shown for the recent past) and are expected to drive major biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning. PMID:28276501

Mating system and gene flow in the red seaweed Gracilaria gracilis: effect of haploid-diploid life history and intertidal rocky shore landscape on fine-scale genetic structure.

PubMed

Engel, C R; Destombe, C; Valero, M

2004-04-01

The impact of haploid-diploidy and the intertidal landscape on a fine-scale genetic structure was explored in a red seaweed Gracilaria gracilis. The pattern of genetic structure was compared in haploid and diploid stages at a microgeographic scale (< 5 km): a total of 280 haploid and 296 diploid individuals located in six discrete, scattered rock pools were genotyped using seven microsatellite loci. Contrary to the theoretical expectation of predominantly endogamous mating systems in haploid-diploid organisms, G. gracilis showed a clearly allogamous mating system. Although within-population allele frequencies were similar between haploids and diploids, genetic differentiation among haploids was more than twice that of diploids, suggesting that there may be a lag between migration and (local) breeding due to the long generation times in G. gracilis. Weak, but significant, population differentiation was detected in both haploids and diploids and varied with landscape features, and not with geographic distance. Using an assignment test, we establish that effective migration rates varied according to height on the shore. In this intertidal species, biased spore dispersal may occur during the transport of spores and gametes at low tide when small streams flow from high- to lower-shore pools. The longevity of both haploid and diploid free-living stages and the long generation times typical of G. gracilis populations may promote the observed pattern of high genetic diversity within populations relative to that among populations.

Antarctic and Arctic populations of the ciliate Euplotes nobilii show common pheromone-mediated cell-cell signaling and cross-mating

PubMed Central

Di Giuseppe, Graziano; Erra, Fabrizio; Dini, Fernando; Alimenti, Claudio; Vallesi, Adriana; Pedrini, Bill; Wüthrich, Kurt; Luporini, Pierangelo

2011-01-01

Wild-type strains of the protozoan ciliate Euplotes collected from different locations on the coasts of Antarctica, Tierra del Fuego and the Arctic were taxonomically identified as the morpho-species Euplotes nobilii, based on morphometric and phylogenetic analyses. Subsequent studies of their sexual interactions revealed that mating combinations of Antarctic and Arctic strains form stable pairs of conjugant cells. These conjugant pairs were isolated and shown to complete mutual gene exchange and cross-fertilization. The biological significance of this finding was further substantiated by demonstrating that close homology exists among the three-dimensional structures determined by NMR of the water-borne signaling pheromones that are constitutively secreted into the extracellular space by these interbreeding strains, in which these molecules trigger the switch between the growth stage and the sexual stage of the life cycle. The fact that Antarctic and Arctic E. nobilii populations share the same gene pool and belong to the same biological species provides new support to the biogeographic model of global distribution of eukaryotic microorganisms, which had so far been based exclusively on studies of morphological and phylogenetic taxonomy. PMID:21300903

Stage Separation Failure: Model Based Diagnostics and Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luchinsky, Dmitry; Hafiychuk, Vasyl; Kulikov, Igor; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Patterson-Hine, Ann; Hanson, John; Hill, Ashley

2010-01-01

Safety of the next-generation space flight vehicles requires development of an in-flight Failure Detection and Prognostic (FD&P) system. Development of such system is challenging task that involves analysis of many hard hitting engineering problems across the board. In this paper we report progress in the development of FD&P for the re-contact fault between upper stage nozzle and the inter-stage caused by the first stage and upper stage separation failure. A high-fidelity models and analytical estimations are applied to analyze the following sequence of events: (i) structural dynamics of the nozzle extension during the impact; (ii) structural stability of the deformed nozzle in the presence of the pressure and temperature loads induced by the hot gas flow during engine start up; and (iii) the fault induced thrust changes in the steady burning regime. The diagnostic is based on the measurements of the impact torque. The prognostic is based on the analysis of the correlation between the actuator signal and fault-induced changes in the nozzle structural stability and thrust.

Elucidating the Population Dynamics of Japanese Knotweed Using Integral Projection Models

PubMed Central

Dauer, Joseph T.; Jongejans, Eelke

2013-01-01

Plant demographic studies coupled with population modeling are crucial components of invasive plant management because they inform managers when in a plant’s life cycle it is most susceptible to control efforts. Providing land managers with appropriate data can be especially challenging when there is limited data on potentially important transitions that occur belowground. For 2 years, we monitored 4 clonal Japanese knotweed ( Polygonum cuspidatum ) infestations for emergence, survival, shoot height until leaf senescence, dry shoot biomass after senescence, and rhizome connections for 424 shoots. We developed an integral projection model using both final autumn shoot height and shoot biomass as predictors of survival between years, growth from year to year, and number of rhizomes produced by a shoot (fecundity). Numbers of new shoots within an infestation (population growth rate λ) were projected to increase 13-233% in a year, with the greatest increase at the most frequently disturbed site. Elasticity analysis revealed population growth at 3 of the 4 sites was primarily due to ramet survival between years and to year-to-year growth in shoot height and shoot biomass. Population growth at the fourth site, the most disturbed, was due to the large production of new rhizomes and associated shoots. In contrast to previous studies, our excavation revealed that most of the shoots were not interconnected, suggesting rhizome production may be limited by the size or age of the plants, resource availability, disturbance frequency, or other factors. Future integration of plant population models with more data on belowground growth structures will clarify the critical stages in Japanese knotweed life cycle and support land managers in their management decisions. PMID:24073249

The components of kin competition.

PubMed

Van Dyken, J David

2010-10-01

It is well known that competition among kin alters the rate and often the direction of evolution in subdivided populations. Yet much remains unclear about the ecological and demographic causes of kin competition, or what role life cycle plays in promoting or ameliorating its effects. Using the multilevel Price equation, I derive a general equation for evolution in structured populations under an arbitrary intensity of kin competition. This equation partitions the effects of selection and demography, and recovers numerous previous models as special cases. I quantify the degree of kin competition, α, which explicitly depends on life cycle. I show how life cycle and demographic assumptions can be incorporated into kin selection models via α, revealing life cycles that are more or less permissive of altruism. As an example, I give closed-form results for Hamilton's rule in a three-stage life cycle. Although results are sensitive to life cycle in general, I identify three demographic conditions that give life cycle invariant results. Under the infinite island model, α is a function of the scale of density regulation and dispersal rate, effectively disentangling these two phenomena. Population viscosity per se does not impede kin selection. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Spatial structuring within a reservoir fish population: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Long, James M.; Shoup, Daniel E.

2014-01-01

Spatial structuring in reservoir fish populations can exist because of environmental gradients, species-specific behaviour, or even localised fishing effort. The present study investigated whether white crappie exhibited evidence of improved population structure where the northern more productive half of a lake is closed to fishing to provide waterfowl hunting opportunities. Population response to angling was modelled for each substock of white crappie (north (protected) and south (unprotected) areas), the entire lake (single-stock model) and by combining simulations of the two independent substock models (additive model). White crappie in the protected area were more abundant, consisting of larger, older individuals, and exhibited a lower total annual mortality rate than in the unprotected area. Population modelling found that fishing mortality rates between 0.1 and 0.3 resulted in sustainable populations (spawning potential ratios (SPR) >0.30). The population in the unprotected area appeared to be more resilient (SPR > 0.30) at the higher fishing intensities (0.35–0.55). Considered additively, the whole-lake fishery appeared more resilient than when modelled as a single-panmictic stock. These results provided evidence of spatial structuring in reservoir fish populations, and we recommend model assessments used to guide management decisions should consider those spatial differences in other populations where they exist.

Mechatronic design of a novel linear compliant positioning stage with large travel range and high out-of-plane payload capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hua; Xie, Xin; Tan, Ruoyu; Zhang, Lianchao; Fan, Dapeng

2017-06-01

Most of the XY positioning stages proposed in previous studies are mainly designed by considering only a single performance indicator of the stage. As a result, the other performance indicators are relatively weak. In this study, a 2-degree-of-freedom linear compliant positioning stage (LCPS) is developed by mechatronic design to balance the interacting performance indicators and realize the desired positioning stage. The key parameters and the coupling of the structure and actuators are completely considered in the design. The LCPS consists of four voice coil motors (VCMs), which are conformally designed for compactness, and six spatial leaf spring parallelograms. These parallelograms are serially connected for a large travel range and a high out-of-plane payload capacity. The mechatronic model is established by matrix structural analysis for structural modeling and by Kirchhoff's law for the VCMs. The sensitivities of the key parameters are analyzed, and the design parameters are subsequently determined. The analytical model of the stage is confirmed by experiments. The stage has a travel range of 4.4 mm × 7.0 mm and a 0.16% area ratio of workspace to the outer dimension of the stage. The values of these performance indicators are greater than those of any existing stage reported in the literature. The closed-loop bandwidth is 9.5 Hz in both working directions. The stage can track a circular trajectory with a radius of 1.5 mm, with 40 mm error and a resolution of lower than 3 mm. The results of payload tests indicate that the stage has at least 20 kg outof- plane payload capacity.

Simulation of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E.; Duchemin, J.

2007-12-01

A coupled hydrology and entomology model for simulation of malaria transmission and malaria transmitting mosquito population dynamics is presented. Model development and validation is done using field data and observations collected at Banizoumbou and Zindarou, Niger spanning three wet seasons, from 2005 through 2007. The primary model objective is the accurate determination of climate variability effects on village scale malaria transmission. Malaria transmission dependence on climate variables is highly nonlinear and complex. Temperature and humidity affect mosquito longevity, temperature controls parasite development rates in the mosquito as well as subadult mosquito development rates, and precipitation determines the formation and persistence of adequate breeding pools. Moreover, unsaturated zone hydrology influences overland flow, and climate controlled evapotranspiration rates and root zone uptake therefore also influence breeding pool formation. High resolution distributed hydrologic simulation allows representation of the small-scale ephemeral pools that constitute the primary habitat of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, the dominant malaria vectors in the Niger Sahel. Remotely sensed soil type, vegetation type, and microtopography rasters are used to assign the distributed parameter fields for simulation of the land surface hydrologic response to precipitation and runoff generation. Predicted runoff from each cell flows overland and into topographic depressions, with explicit representation of infiltration and evapotranspiration. The model's entomology component interacts with simulated pools. Subadult (aquatic stage) mosquito breeding is simulated in the pools, and water temperature dependent stage advancement rates regulate adult mosquito emergence into the model domain. Once emerged, adult mosquitoes are tracked as independent individual agents that interact with their immediate environment. Attributes relevant to malaria transmission such as gonotrophic state, infected and infectious states, age, and location relative to human population are tracked for each individual. The model operates at a resolution consistent with the characteristic scale of relevant ecological processes. Microhabitat exploitation and spatial structure of the mosquito population surrounding villages is reproduced in this manner. The resulting coupled model predicts not only malaria transmission's response to interannual climate variability, but can also evaluate land use change effects on malaria transmission. The late Professor Andrew Spielman of the Harvard School of Public Health provided medical entomology expertise and was a part of this effort.

Effects of Clonal Reproduction on Evolutionary Lag and Evolutionary Rescue.

PubMed

Orive, Maria E; Barfield, Michael; Fernandez, Carlos; Holt, Robert D

2017-10-01

Evolutionary lag-the difference between mean and optimal phenotype in the current environment-is of keen interest in light of rapid environmental change. Many ecologically important organisms have life histories that include stage structure and both sexual and clonal reproduction, yet how stage structure and clonality interplay to govern a population's rate of evolution and evolutionary lag is unknown. Effects of clonal reproduction on mean phenotype partition into two portions: one that is phenotype dependent, and another that is genotype dependent. This partitioning is governed by the association between the nonadditive genetic plus random environmental component of phenotype of clonal offspring and their parents. While clonality slows phenotypic evolution toward an optimum, it can dramatically increase population survival after a sudden step change in optimal phenotype. Increased adult survival slows phenotypic evolution but facilitates population survival after a step change; this positive effect can, however, be lost given survival-fecundity trade-offs. Simulations indicate that the benefits of increased clonality under environmental change greatly depend on the nature of that change: increasing population persistence under a step change while decreasing population persistence under a continuous linear change requiring de novo variation. The impact of clonality on the probability of persistence for species in a changing world is thus inexorably linked to the temporal texture of the change they experience.

Designing and benchmarking the MULTICOM protein structure prediction system

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Predicting protein structure from sequence is one of the most significant and challenging problems in bioinformatics. Numerous bioinformatics techniques and tools have been developed to tackle almost every aspect of protein structure prediction ranging from structural feature prediction, template identification and query-template alignment to structure sampling, model quality assessment, and model refinement. How to synergistically select, integrate and improve the strengths of the complementary techniques at each prediction stage and build a high-performance system is becoming a critical issue for constructing a successful, competitive protein structure predictor. Results Over the past several years, we have constructed a standalone protein structure prediction system MULTICOM that combines multiple sources of information and complementary methods at all five stages of the protein structure prediction process including template identification, template combination, model generation, model assessment, and model refinement. The system was blindly tested during the ninth Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP9) in 2010 and yielded very good performance. In addition to studying the overall performance on the CASP9 benchmark, we thoroughly investigated the performance and contributions of each component at each stage of prediction. Conclusions Our comprehensive and comparative study not only provides useful and practical insights about how to select, improve, and integrate complementary methods to build a cutting-edge protein structure prediction system but also identifies a few new sources of information that may help improve the design of a protein structure prediction system. Several components used in the MULTICOM system are available at: http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_toolbox/. PMID:23442819

Quality-of-care research in mental health: responding to the challenge.

PubMed

McGlynn, E A; Norquist, G S; Wells, K B; Sullivan, G; Liberman, R P

1988-01-01

Quality-of-care research in mental health is in the developmental stages, which affords an opportunity to take an integrative approach, building on principles from efficacy, effectiveness, quality assessment, and quality assurance research. We propose an analytic strategy for designing research on the quality of mental health services using an adaptation of the structure, process, and outcome classification scheme. As a concrete illustration of our approach, we discuss research on a particular target population-patients with chronic schizophrenia. Future research should focus on developing models of treatment, establishing criteria and standards for outcomes and processes, and gathering data on community practices.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Warped Linear Prediction of Physical Model Excitations with Applications in Audio Compression and Instrument Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, Alexis; Fukudome, Kimitoshi

2004-12-01

A sound recording of a plucked string instrument is encoded and resynthesized using two stages of prediction. In the first stage of prediction, a simple physical model of a plucked string is estimated and the instrument excitation is obtained. The second stage of prediction compensates for the simplicity of the model in the first stage by encoding either the instrument excitation or the model error using warped linear prediction. These two methods of compensation are compared with each other, and to the case of single-stage warped linear prediction, adjustments are introduced, and their applications to instrument synthesis and MPEG4's audio compression within the structured audio format are discussed.

The Morphology and Uniformity of Circumstellar OH/H2O Masers around OH/IR Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felli, Derek Sean

Even though low mass stars ( 8 solar masses), the more massive stars drive the chemical evolution of galaxies from which the next generation of stars and planets can form. Understanding mass loss of asymptotic giant branch stars contributes to our understanding of the chemical evolution of the galaxy, stellar populations, and star formation history. Stars with mass 8 solar masses go supernova. In both cases, these stars enrich their environments with elements heavier than simple hydrogen and helium molecules. While some general info about how stars die and form planetary nebulae are known, specific details are missing due to a lack of high-resolution observations and analysis of the intermediate stages. For example, we know that mass loss in stars creates morphologically diverse planetary nebulae, but we do not know the uniformity of these processes, and therefore lack detailed models to better predict how spherically symmetric stars form asymmetric nebulae. We have selected a specific group of late-stage stars and observed them at different scales to reveal the uniformity of mass loss through different layers close to the star. This includes observing nearby masers that trace the molecular shell structure around these stars. This study revealed detailed structure that was analyzed for uniformity to place constraints on how the mass loss processes behave in models. These results will feed into our ability to create more detailed models to better predict the chemical evolution of the next generation of stars and planets.

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model for the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus

PubMed Central

Monaco, Cristián J.; Wethey, David S.; Helmuth, Brian

2014-01-01

We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the quintessential keystone predator, the rocky-intertidal sea star Pisaster ochraceus. Based on first principles, DEB theory is used to illuminate underlying physiological processes (maintenance, growth, development, and reproduction), thus providing a framework to predict individual-level responses to environmental change. We parameterized the model for P. ochraceus using both data from the literature and experiments conducted specifically for the DEB framework. We devoted special attention to the model’s capacity to (1) describe growth trajectories at different life-stages, including pelagic larval and post-metamorphic phases, (2) simulate shrinkage when prey availability is insufficient to meet maintenance requirements, and (3) deal with the combined effects of changing body temperature and food supply. We further validated the model using an independent growth data set. Using standard statistics to compare model outputs with real data (e.g. Mean Absolute Percent Error, MAPE) we demonstrated that the model is capable of tracking P. ochraceus’ growth in length at different life-stages (larvae: MAPE = 12.27%; post-metamorphic, MAPE = 9.22%), as well as quantifying reproductive output index. However, the model’s skill dropped when trying to predict changes in body mass (MAPE = 24.59%), potentially because of the challenge of precisely anticipating spawning events. Interestingly, the model revealed that P. ochraceus reserves contribute little to total biomass, suggesting that animals draw energy from structure when food is limited. The latter appears to drive indeterminate growth dynamics in P. ochraceus. Individual-based mechanistic models, which can illuminate underlying physiological responses, offer a viable framework for forecasting population dynamics in the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus. The DEB model herein represents a critical step in that direction, especially in a period of increased anthropogenic pressure on natural systems and an observed recent decline in populations of this keystone species. PMID:25166351

Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

2016-04-01

Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis.

Representing Heterogeneity in Structural Relationships Among Multiple Choice Variables Using a Latent Segmentation Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garikapati, Venu; Astroza, Sebastian; Pendyala, Ram M.

Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict activity-travel choices, with those downstream in the decision-making chain influenced by those upstream in the sequence. The adoption of a singular sequential causal structure to depict relationships among activity-travel choices in travel demand model systems ignores the possibility that some choices are made jointly as a bundle as well as the possible presence of structural heterogeneity in the population with respect to decision-making processes. As different segments in the population may adopt and follow different causalmore » decision-making mechanisms when making selected choices jointly, it would be of value to develop simultaneous equations model systems relating multiple endogenous choice variables that are able to identify population subgroups following alternative causal decision structures. Because the segments are not known a priori, they are considered latent and determined endogenously within a joint modeling framework proposed in this paper. The methodology is applied to a national mobility survey data set to identify population segments that follow different causal structures relating residential location choice, vehicle ownership, and car-share and mobility service usage. It is found that the model revealing three distinct latent segments best describes the data, confirming the efficacy of the modeling approach and the existence of structural heterogeneity in decision-making in the population. Future versions of activity-travel model systems should strive to incorporate such structural heterogeneity to better reflect varying decision processes across population subgroups.« less

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems) in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000) contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures. PMID:22731941

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

Spatial effects in discrete generation population models.

PubMed

Carrillo, C; Fife, P

2005-02-01

A framework is developed for constructing a large class of discrete generation, continuous space models of evolving single species populations and finding their bifurcating patterned spatial distributions. Our models involve, in separate stages, the spatial redistribution (through movement laws) and local regulation of the population; and the fundamental properties of these events in a homogeneous environment are found. Emphasis is placed on the interaction of migrating individuals with the existing population through conspecific attraction (or repulsion), as well as on random dispersion. The nature of the competition of these two effects in a linearized scenario is clarified. The bifurcation of stationary spatially patterned population distributions is studied, with special attention given to the role played by that competition.

Recapitulation of Human Retinal Development from Human Pluripotent Stem Cells Generates Transplantable Populations of Cone Photoreceptors.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Cordero, Anai; Kruczek, Kamil; Naeem, Arifa; Fernando, Milan; Kloc, Magdalena; Ribeiro, Joana; Goh, Debbie; Duran, Yanai; Blackford, Samuel J I; Abelleira-Hervas, Laura; Sampson, Robert D; Shum, Ian O; Branch, Matthew J; Gardner, Peter J; Sowden, Jane C; Bainbridge, James W B; Smith, Alexander J; West, Emma L; Pearson, Rachael A; Ali, Robin R

2017-09-12

Transplantation of rod photoreceptors, derived either from neonatal retinae or pluripotent stem cells (PSCs), can restore rod-mediated visual function in murine models of inherited blindness. However, humans depend more upon cone photoreceptors that are required for daylight, color, and high-acuity vision. Indeed, macular retinopathies involving loss of cones are leading causes of blindness. An essential step for developing stem cell-based therapies for maculopathies is the ability to generate transplantable human cones from renewable sources. Here, we report a modified 2D/3D protocol for generating hPSC-derived neural retinal vesicles with well-formed ONL-like structures containing cones and rods bearing inner segments and connecting cilia, nascent outer segments, and presynaptic structures. This differentiation system recapitulates human photoreceptor development, allowing the isolation and transplantation of a pure population of stage-matched cones. Purified human long/medium cones survive and become incorporated within the adult mouse retina, supporting the potential of photoreceptor transplantation for treating retinal degeneration. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surfing a spike wave down the ventral stream.

PubMed

VanRullen, Rufin; Thorpe, Simon J

2002-10-01

Numerous theories of neural processing, often motivated by experimental observations, have explored the computational properties of neural codes based on the absolute or relative timing of spikes in spike trains. Spiking neuron models and theories however, as well as their experimental counterparts, have generally been limited to the simulation or observation of isolated neurons, isolated spike trains, or reduced neural populations. Such theories would therefore seem inappropriate to capture the properties of a neural code relying on temporal spike patterns distributed across large neuronal populations. Here we report a range of computer simulations and theoretical considerations that were designed to explore the possibilities of one such code and its relevance for visual processing. In a unified framework where the relation between stimulus saliency and spike relative timing plays the central role, we describe how the ventral stream of the visual system could process natural input scenes and extract meaningful information, both rapidly and reliably. The first wave of spikes generated in the retina in response to a visual stimulation carries information explicitly in its spatio-temporal structure: the most salient information is represented by the first spikes over the population. This spike wave, propagating through a hierarchy of visual areas, is regenerated at each processing stage, where its temporal structure can be modified by (i). the selectivity of the cortical neurons, (ii). lateral interactions and (iii). top-down attentional influences from higher order cortical areas. The resulting model could account for the remarkable efficiency and rapidity of processing observed in the primate visual system.

A three-degree-of-freedom thin-film PZT-actuated microactuator with large out-of-plane displacement.

PubMed

Choi, Jongsoo; Qiu, Zhen; Rhee, Choong-Ho; Wang, Thomas; Oldham, Kenn

2014-07-01

A novel three degree-of-freedom microactuator based on thin-film lead-zirconate-titanate (PZT) is described with its detailed structural model. Its central rectangular-shaped mirror platform, also referred to as the stage, is actuated by four symmetric PZT bending legs such that each leg provides vertical translation for one corner of the stage. It has been developed to support real-time in vivo vertical cross-sectional imaging with a dual axes confocal endomicroscope for early cancer detection, having large displacements in three axes (z, θ x , θ y ) and a relatively high bandwidth in the z-axis direction. Prototype microactuators closely meet the performance requirements for this application; in the out-of-plane (z-axis) direction, it has shown more than 177 μ m of displacement and about 84 Hz of structural natural frequency, when two diagonal legs are actuated at 14V. With all four legs, another prototype of the same design with lighter stage mass has achieved more than 430 μ m of out-of-plane displacement at 15V and about 200 Hz of bandwidth. The former design has shown approximately 6.4° and 2.9° of stage tilting about the x-axis and y-axis, respectively, at 14V. This paper also presents a modeling technique that uses experimental data to account for the effects of fabrication uncertainties in residual stress and structural dimensions. The presented model predicts the static motion of the stage within an average absolute error of 14.6 μ m, which approaches the desired imaging resolution, 5 μ m, and also reasonably anticipates the structural dynamic behavior of the stage. The refined model will support development of a future trajectory tracking controller for the system.

A three-degree-of-freedom thin-film PZT-actuated microactuator with large out-of-plane displacement

PubMed Central

Choi, Jongsoo; Qiu, Zhen; Rhee, Choong-Ho; Wang, Thomas; Oldham, Kenn

2014-01-01

A novel three degree-of-freedom microactuator based on thin-film lead-zirconate-titanate (PZT) is described with its detailed structural model. Its central rectangular-shaped mirror platform, also referred to as the stage, is actuated by four symmetric PZT bending legs such that each leg provides vertical translation for one corner of the stage. It has been developed to support real-time in vivo vertical cross-sectional imaging with a dual axes confocal endomicroscope for early cancer detection, having large displacements in three axes (z, θx, θy) and a relatively high bandwidth in the z-axis direction. Prototype microactuators closely meet the performance requirements for this application; in the out-of-plane (z-axis) direction, it has shown more than 177 μm of displacement and about 84 Hz of structural natural frequency, when two diagonal legs are actuated at 14V. With all four legs, another prototype of the same design with lighter stage mass has achieved more than 430 μm of out-of-plane displacement at 15V and about 200 Hz of bandwidth. The former design has shown approximately 6.4° and 2.9° of stage tilting about the x-axis and y-axis, respectively, at 14V. This paper also presents a modeling technique that uses experimental data to account for the effects of fabrication uncertainties in residual stress and structural dimensions. The presented model predicts the static motion of the stage within an average absolute error of 14.6 μm, which approaches the desired imaging resolution, 5 μm, and also reasonably anticipates the structural dynamic behavior of the stage. The refined model will support development of a future trajectory tracking controller for the system. PMID:25506131

From Experiment to Theory: What Can We Learn from Growth Curves?

PubMed

Kareva, Irina; Karev, Georgy

2018-01-01

Finding an appropriate functional form to describe population growth based on key properties of a described system allows making justified predictions about future population development. This information can be of vital importance in all areas of research, ranging from cell growth to global demography. Here, we use this connection between theory and observation to pose the following question: what can we infer about intrinsic properties of a population (i.e., degree of heterogeneity, or dependence on external resources) based on which growth function best fits its growth dynamics? We investigate several nonstandard classes of multi-phase growth curves that capture different stages of population growth; these models include hyperbolic-exponential, exponential-linear, exponential-linear-saturation growth patterns. The constructed models account explicitly for the process of natural selection within inhomogeneous populations. Based on the underlying hypotheses for each of the models, we identify whether the population that it best fits by a particular curve is more likely to be homogeneous or heterogeneous, grow in a density-dependent or frequency-dependent manner, and whether it depends on external resources during any or all stages of its development. We apply these predictions to cancer cell growth and demographic data obtained from the literature. Our theory, if confirmed, can provide an additional biomarker and a predictive tool to complement experimental research.

Pathogen transmission at stage-structured infectious patches: Killers and vaccinators.

PubMed

Caraco, Thomas; Turner, Wendy C

2018-01-07

Spatial localization of an obligate-killing, free-living pathogen generates a landscape of patches where new infections occur. As an infectious patch ages, both pathogen exposure at the patch and the probability of lethal infection following exposure can decline. We model stage-structured infectious patches, where non-lethal exposure can naturally "vaccinate" susceptible hosts. We let the between-stage difference in pathogen transmission, and then the between-stage difference in patch virulence, increase independently of other parameters. Effects of increasing either between-stage difference (about a fixed mean) depend on the probability a patch transitions from the first to second stage, i.e., the chance that a killer patch becomes a vaccinator. For slower stage transition, greater between-stage differences decreased susceptibles, and increased both resistant-host and killer patch numbers. But our examples reveal that each effect can be reversed when between-stage transition occurs more rapidly. For sufficiently rapid stage transition, increased between-stage virulence differences can lead to pathogen extinction, and leave the host at disease-free equilibrium. The model's general significance lies in demonstrating how epidemiological variation among sites of environmentally transmitted disease can strongly govern host-parasite dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction and constancy of cognitive-motivational structures in mothers and their adolescents.

PubMed

Malerstein, A J; Ahern, M M; Pulos, S; Arasteh, J D

1995-01-01

Three clinically-derived, cognitive-motivational structures were predicted in 68 adolescents from their caregiving situations as revealed in their mothers' interviews, elicited six years earlier. Basic to each structure is a motivational concern and its related social cognitive style, a style which corresponds to a Piagetian cognitive stage: concrete operational, intuitive or symbolic. Because these structure types parse a non-clinical population, current views of health and accordingly goals of treatment may need modification.

The proportion cured of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV cutaneous malignant melanoma in Sweden 1990-2007: A population-based study.

PubMed

Eriksson, Hanna; Lyth, Johan; Andersson, Therese M-L

2016-06-15

The survival in cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is highly dependent on the stage of the disease. Stage III-IV CMM patients are at high risk of relapse with a heterogeneous outcome, but not all experience excess mortality due to their disease. This group is referred to as the cure proportion representing the proportion of patients who experience the same mortality rate as the general population. The aim of this study was to estimate the cure proportion of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV CMM in Sweden. From the population-based Swedish Melanoma Register, we included 856 patients diagnosed with primary Stage III-IV CMM, 1990-2007, followed-up through 2013. We used flexible parametric cure models to estimate cure proportions and median survival times (MSTs) of uncured by sex, age, tumor site, ulceration status (in Stage III patients) and disease stage. The standardized (over sex, age and site) cure proportion was lower in Stage IV CMMs (0.15, 95% CI 0.09-0.22) than non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.55) with a statistically significant difference of 0.33 (95% CI = 0.24-0.41). Ulcerated Stage III CMMs had a cure proportion of 0.27 (95% CI 0.21-0.32) with a statistically significant difference compared to non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (difference 0.21; 95% CI = 0.13-0.30). The standardized MST of uncured was approximately 9-10 months longer for non-ulcerated versus ulcerated Stage III CMMs. We could demonstrate a significantly better outcome in patients diagnosed with non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs compared to ulcerated Stage III CMMs and Stage IV disease after adjusting for age, sex and tumor site. © 2016 UICC.

Study of CFB Simulation Model with Coincidence at Multi-Working Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; He, F.; Yang, Z. W.; Li, Z.; Ni, W. D.

A circulating fluidized bed (CFB) two-stage simulation model was developed. To realize the model results coincident with the design value or real operation value at specified multi-working conditions and with capability of real-time calculation, only the main key processes were taken into account and the dominant factors were further abstracted out of these key processes. The simulation results showed a sound accordance at multi-working conditions, and confirmed the advantage of the two-stage model over the original single-stage simulation model. The combustion-support effect of secondary air was investigated using the two-stage model. This model provides a solid platform for investigating the pant-leg structured CFB furnace, which is now under design for a supercritical power plant.

Stage-discharge relationship in tidal channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, W. S.; Mariotti, G.; Deegan, L.; Fagherazzi, S.

2016-12-01

Long-term records of the flow of water through tidal channels are essential to constrain the budgets of sediments and biogeochemical compounds in salt marshes. Statistical models which relate discharge to water level allow the estimation of such records from more easily obtained records of water stage in the channel. While there is clearly structure in the stage-discharge relationship, nonlinearity and nonstationarity of the relationship complicates the construction of statistical stage-discharge models with adequate performance for discharge estimation and uncertainty quantification. Here we compare four different types of stage-discharge models, each of which is designed to capture different characteristics of the stage-discharge relationship. We estimate and validate each of these models on a two-month long time series of stage and discharge obtained with an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler in a salt marsh channel. We find that the best performance is obtained by models which account for the nonlinear and time-varying nature of the stage-discharge relationship. Good performance can also be obtained from a simplified version of these models which approximates the fully nonlinear and time-varying models with a piecewise linear formulation.

Seeding the initial population with feasible solutions in metaheuristic optimization of steel trusses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazemzadeh Azad, Saeid

2018-01-01

In spite of considerable research work on the development of efficient algorithms for discrete sizing optimization of steel truss structures, only a few studies have addressed non-algorithmic issues affecting the general performance of algorithms. For instance, an important question is whether starting the design optimization from a feasible solution is fruitful or not. This study is an attempt to investigate the effect of seeding the initial population with feasible solutions on the general performance of metaheuristic techniques. To this end, the sensitivity of recently proposed metaheuristic algorithms to the feasibility of initial candidate designs is evaluated through practical discrete sizing of real-size steel truss structures. The numerical experiments indicate that seeding the initial population with feasible solutions can improve the computational efficiency of metaheuristic structural optimization algorithms, especially in the early stages of the optimization. This paves the way for efficient metaheuristic optimization of large-scale structural systems.

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Apparent competition with an invasive plant hastens the extinction of an endangered lupine.

PubMed

Dangremond, Emily M; Pardini, Eleanor A; Knight, Tiffany M

2010-08-01

Invasive plants may compete with native plants by increasing the pressure of native consumers, a mechanism known as "apparent competition." Apparent competition can be as strong as or stronger than direct competition, but the role of apparent competition has rarely been examined in biological invasions. We used four years of demographic data and seed-removal experiments to determine if introduced grasses caused elevated levels of seed consumption on native plant species in a coastal dune system in California, USA. We show that the endangered, coastal dune plant Lupinus tidestromii experiences high levels of pre-dispersal seed consumption by the native rodent Peromyscus maniculatus due to its proximity to the invasive grass, Ammophila arenaria. We use stage-structured, stochastic population models to project that two of three study populations will decline toward extinction under ambient levels of consumption. For one of these declining populations, a relatively small decrease in consumption pressure should allow for persistence. We show that apparent competition with an invasive species significantly decreases the population growth rate and persistence of a native species. We expect that apparent competition is an important mechanism in other ecosystems because invasive plants often change habitat structure and plant-consumer interactions. Possible implications of the apparent-competition mechanism include selective extinction of species preferred by seed consumers in the presence of an invasive species and biological homogenization of communities toward non-preferred native plant species.

Coupling between structure and liquids in a parallel stage space shuttle design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kana, D. D.; Ko, W. L.; Francis, P. H.; Nagy, A.

1972-01-01

A study was conducted to determine the influence of liquid propellants on the dynamic loads for space shuttle vehicles. A parallel-stage configuration model was designed and tested to determine the influence of liquid propellants on coupled natural modes. A forty degree-of-freedom analytical model was also developed for predicting these modes. Currently available analytical models were used to represent the liquid contributions, even though coupled longitudinal and lateral motions are present in such a complex structure. Agreement between the results was found in the lower few modes.

Critically evaluating best management practices for preventing freshwater turtle extinctions.

PubMed

Spencer, R-J; Van Dyke, J U; Thompson, Michael B

2017-12-01

Ex situ conservation tools, such as captive breeding for reintroduction, are considered a last resort to recover threatened or endangered species, but they may also help reduce anthropogenic threats where it is difficult or impossible to address them directly. Headstarting, or captive rearing of eggs or neonate animals for subsequent release into the wild, is controversial because it treats only a symptom of a larger conservation problem; however, it may provide a mechanism to address multiple threats, particularly near population centers. We conducted a population viability analysis of Australia's most widespread freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, to determine the effect of adult roadkill (death by collision with motor vehicles), which is increasing, and reduced recruitment through nest predation from introduced European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We also modeled management scenarios to test the effectiveness of headstarting, fox management, and measures to reduce mortality on roads. Only scenarios with headstarting from source populations eliminated all risks of extinction and allowed population growth. Small increases in adult mortality (2%) had the greatest effect on population growth and extinction risk. Where threats simultaneously affected other life-history stages (e.g., recruitment), eliminating harvest pressures on adult females alone did not eliminate the risk of population extinction. In our models, one source population could supply enough hatchlings annually to supplement 25 other similar-sized populations such that extinction was avoided. Based on our results, we believe headstarting should be a primary tool for managing freshwater turtles for which threats affect multiple life-history stages. We advocate the creation of source populations for managing freshwater turtles that are greatly threatened at multiple life-history stages, such as depredation of eggs by invasive species and adult mortality via roadkill. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

A conflict model for the international hazardous waste disposal dispute.

PubMed

Hu, Kaixian; Hipel, Keith W; Fang, Liping

2009-12-15

A multi-stage conflict model is developed to analyze international hazardous waste disposal disputes. More specifically, the ongoing toxic waste conflicts are divided into two stages consisting of the dumping prevention and dispute resolution stages. The modeling and analyses, based on the methodology of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), are used in both stages in order to grasp the structure and implications of a given conflict from a strategic viewpoint. Furthermore, a specific case study is investigated for the Ivory Coast hazardous waste conflict. In addition to the stability analysis, sensitivity and attitude analyses are conducted to capture various strategic features of this type of complicated dispute.

Bayesian 2-Stage Space-Time Mixture Modeling With Spatial Misalignment of the Exposure in Small Area Health Data.

PubMed

Lawson, Andrew B; Choi, Jungsoon; Cai, Bo; Hossain, Monir; Kirby, Russell S; Liu, Jihong

2012-09-01

We develop a new Bayesian two-stage space-time mixture model to investigate the effects of air pollution on asthma. The two-stage mixture model proposed allows for the identification of temporal latent structure as well as the estimation of the effects of covariates on health outcomes. In the paper, we also consider spatial misalignment of exposure and health data. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the 2-stage mixture model. We apply our statistical framework to a county-level ambulatory care asthma data set in the US state of Georgia for the years 1999-2008.

Predicting strain using forward modelling of restored cross-sections: Application to rollover anticlines over listric normal faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poblet, Josep; Bulnes, Mayte

2007-12-01

A strategy to predict strain across geological structures, based on previous techniques, is modified and evaluated, and a practical application is shown. The technique, which employs cross-section restoration combined with kinematic forward modelling, consists of restoring a section, placing circular strain markers on different domains of the restoration, and forward modelling the restored section with strain markers until the present-day stage is reached. The restoration algorithm employed must be also used to forward model the structure. The ellipses in the forward modelled section allow determining the strain state of the structure and may indirectly predict orientation and distribution of minor structures such as small-scale fractures. The forward model may be frozen at different time steps (different growth stages) allowing prediction of both spatial and temporal variation of strain. The method is evaluated through its application to two stages of a clay experiment, that includes strain markers, and its geometry and deformation history are well documented, providing a strong control on the results. To demonstrate the method's potential, it is successfully applied to a depth-converted seismic profile in the Central Sumatra Basin, Indonesia. This allowed us to gain insight into the deformation undergone by rollover anticlines over listric normal faults.

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Modeling livestock population structure: a geospatial database for Ontario swine farms.

PubMed

Khan, Salah Uddin; O'Sullivan, Terri L; Poljak, Zvonimir; Alsop, Janet; Greer, Amy L

2018-01-30

Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern. Mathematical and simulation models are often used to simulate FAD outbreaks and best practices for control. However, simulation outcomes are sensitive to the population structure used. Within Canada, access to individual swine farm population data with which to parameterize models is a challenge because of privacy concerns. Our objective was to develop a methodology to model the farmed swine population in Ontario, Canada that could represent the existing population structure and improve the efficacy of simulation models. We developed a swine population model based on the factors such as facilities supporting farm infrastructure, land availability, zoning and local regulations, and natural geographic barriers that could affect swine farming in Ontario. Assigned farm locations were equal to the swine farm density described in the 2011 Canadian Census of Agriculture. Farms were then randomly assigned to farm types proportional to the existing swine herd types. We compared the swine population models with a known database of swine farm locations in Ontario and found that the modeled population was representative of farm locations with a high accuracy (AUC: 0.91, Standard deviation: 0.02) suggesting that our algorithm generated a reasonable approximation of farm locations in Ontario. In the absence of a readily accessible dataset providing details of the relative locations of swine farms in Ontario, development of a model livestock population that captures key characteristics of the true population structure while protecting privacy concerns is an important methodological advancement. This methodology will be useful for individuals interested in modeling the spread of pathogens between farms across a landscape and using these models to evaluate disease control strategies.

Racial differences in tumor stage and survival for colorectal cancer in an insured population.

PubMed

Doubeni, Chyke A; Field, Terry S; Buist, Diana S M; Korner, Eli J; Bigelow, Carol; Lamerato, Lois; Herrinton, Lisa; Quinn, Virginia P; Hart, Gene; Hornbrook, Mark C; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Wagner, Edward H

2007-02-01

Despite declining death rates from colorectal cancer (CRC), racial disparities have continued to increase. In this study, the authors examined disparities in a racially diverse group of insured patients. This study was conducted among patients who were diagnosed with CRC from 1993 to 1998, when they were enrolled in integrated healthcare systems. Patients were identified from tumor registries and were linked to information in administrative databases. The sample was restricted to non-Hispanic whites (n = 10,585), non-Hispanic blacks (n = 1479), Hispanics (n = 985), and Asians/Pacific Islanders (n = 909). Differences in tumor stage and survival were analyzed by using polytomous and Cox regression models, respectively. In multivariable regression analyses, blacks were more likely than whites to have distant or unstaged tumors. In Cox models that were adjusted for nonmutable factors, blacks had a higher risk of death from CRC (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.06-1.30). Hispanics had a risk of death similar to whites (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92-1.18), whereas Asians/Pacific Islanders had a lower risk of death from CRC (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.78-1.02). Adjustment for tumor stage decreased the HR to 1.11 for blacks, and the addition of receipt of surgical therapy to the model decreased the HR further to 1.06. The HR among Hispanics and Asians/Pacific Islanders was stable to adjustment for tumor stage and surgical therapy. The relation between race and survival from CRC was complex and appeared to be related to differences in tumor stage and therapy received, even in insured populations. Targeted interventions to improve the use of effective screening and treatment among vulnerable populations may be needed to eliminate disparities in CRC. (c) 2007 American Cancer Society.

Reproductive success of kittiwakes and murres in sequential stages of the nesting period: Relationships with diet and oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, Heather M.; Drummond, Brie A.; Benson, Anna-Marie; Paredes, Rosana

2014-11-01

Reproductive success is one of the most easily-measured and widely studied demographic parameters of colonial nesting seabirds. Nevertheless, factors affecting the sequential stages (egg laying, incubation, chick-rearing) of reproductive success are less understood. We investigated the separate sequential stages of reproductive success in piscivorous black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) using a 36-year dataset (1975-2010) on the major Pribilof Islands (St. Paul and St. George), which have recently had contrasting population trajectories. Our objectives were to evaluate how the proportion of successful nests varied among stages, and to quantify factors influencing the probability of nest success at each stage in each island. We modeled the probability of nest success at each stage using General Linear Mixed Models incorporating broad-scale and local climate variables, and diet as covariates as well as other measures of reproduction such as timing of breeding and reproductive output in the previous year and previous stage. For both species we found: (1) Success in previous stages of the breeding cycle and success in the prior year better explained overall success than any environmental variables. Phenology was also an important predictor of laying success for kittiwakes. (2) Fledging success was lower when chick diets contained oceanic fish found farther from the colonies and small invertebrates, rather than coastal fish species. (3) Differences in reproductive variables at St. Paul and St. George islands did not correspond to population trends between the two islands. Our results highlight the potential importance of adult condition and annual survival to kittiwake and murre productivity and ultimately, populations. Adult condition carrying over from the previous year ultimately seems to drive annual breeding success in a cascade effect. Furthermore, condition and survival appear to be important contributors to population dynamics at each island. Therefore, adult condition and survival prior to breeding, and factors that influence these parameters such as foraging conditions in the non-breeding season, may be important datasets for understanding drivers of seabird demography at the Pribilof Islands.

Intercohort density dependence drives brown trout habitat selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayllón, Daniel; Nicola, Graciela G.; Parra, Irene; Elvira, Benigno; Almodóvar, Ana

2013-01-01

Habitat selection can be viewed as an emergent property of the quality and availability of habitat but also of the number of individuals and the way they compete for its use. Consequently, habitat selection can change across years due to fluctuating resources or to changes in population numbers. However, habitat selection predictive models often do not account for ecological dynamics, especially density dependent processes. In stage-structured population, the strength of density dependent interactions between individuals of different age classes can exert a profound influence on population trajectories and evolutionary processes. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of fluctuating densities of both older and younger competing life stages on the habitat selection patterns (described as univariate and multivariate resource selection functions) of young-of-the-year, juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta. We observed all age classes were selective in habitat choice but changed their selection patterns across years consistently with variations in the densities of older but not of younger age classes. Trout of an age increased selectivity for positions highly selected by older individuals when their density decreased, but this pattern did not hold when the density of younger age classes varied. It suggests that younger individuals are dominated by older ones but can expand their range of selected habitats when density of competitors decreases, while older trout do not seem to consider the density of younger individuals when distributing themselves even though they can negatively affect their final performance. Since these results may entail critical implications for conservation and management practices based on habitat selection models, further research should involve a wider range of river typologies and/or longer time frames to fully understand the patterns of and the mechanisms underlying the operation of density dependence on brown trout habitat selection.

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

A new method for calculating time-dependent atomic level populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.

1981-01-01

A method is described for reducing the number of levels to be dealt with in calculating time-dependent populations of atoms or ions in plasmas. The procedure effectively extends the collisional-radiative model to consecutive stages of ionization, treating ground and metastable levels explicitly and excited levels implicitly. Direct comparisons of full and simulated systems are carried out for five-level models.

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment.

PubMed

Foley, Aaron M; Hewitt, David G; DeYoung, Charles A; DeYoung, Randy W; Schnupp, Matthew J

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers.

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Hewitt, David G.; DeYoung, Charles A.; DeYoung, Randy W.; Schnupp, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers. PMID:27711208

Effect of water availability in opening containers of breeding site on Aedes aegypti life cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokachil, Najir; Yusoff, Nuraini; Saaid, Alif; Appandi, Najwa; Harun, Farhana

2017-11-01

The distribution of rainfall is one of the factors which contribute to the development of Aedes aegypti life cycle. The fluctuation of rainfall might influence the acceleration of Aedes aegypti growth by providing sufficient breeding sites. In this research, the availability of water in an opening container of the breeding site is considered as a significant variable which affects the distinct stages structure in mosquito life cycle which egg, larva, pupa, and adult. A stage-structured Lefkovitch matrix model was used by considering the quantity of water contains in an opening container and life cycle of Aedes aegypti. The maximum depth of water in the container was also taken into account in order to find the time duration of mosquito life cycle to complete. We found that the maximum depth of water availability in mosquito breeding site influenced the abundance of the mosquito population. Hence, the containers are filled with sufficient water be able to stand from hot temperature for several days before drying out might continue to provide mosquito breeding site. In the future, it is recommended to consider other factors which affect the quantity of water in mosquito breeding sites such as heavy rain and wind blows.

Ecogeography, genetics, and the evolution of human body form.

PubMed

Roseman, Charles C; Auerbach, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Genetic resemblances among groups are non-randomly distributed in humans. This population structure may influence the correlations between traits and environmental drivers of natural selection thus complicating the interpretation of the fossil record when modern human variation is used as a referential model. In this paper, we examine the effects of population structure and natural selection on postcranial traits that reflect body size and shape with application to the more general issue of how climate - using latitude as a proxy - has influenced hominin morphological variation. We compare models that include terms reflecting population structure, ascertained from globally distributed microsatellite data, and latitude on postcranial phenotypes derived from skeletal dimensions taken from a large global sample of modern humans. We find that models with a population structure term fit better than a model of natural selection along a latitudinal cline in all cases. A model including both latitude and population structure terms is a good fit to distal limb element lengths and bi-iliac breadth, indicating that multiple evolutionary forces shaped these morphologies. In contrast, a model that included only a population structure term best explained femoral head diameter and the crural index. The results demonstrate that population structure is an important part of human postcranial variation, and that clinally distributed natural selection is not sufficient to explain among-group differentiation. The distribution of human body form is strongly influenced by the contingencies of modern human origins, which calls for new ways to approach problems in the evolution of human variation, past and present. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE STELLAR SPHEROID, THE DISK, AND THE DYNAMICS OF THE COSMIC WEB

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Domínguez-Tenreiro, R.; Obreja, A.; Brook, C. B.

Models of the advanced stages of gravitational instability predict that baryons that form the stellar populations of current galaxies at z = 0 displayed a web-like structure at high z, as part of the cosmic web (CW). We explore details of these predictions using cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. When the stellar populations of the spheroid and disk components of simulated late-type galaxies are traced back separately to high zs we found CW-like structures where spheroid progenitors are more evolved than disk progenitors. The distinction between the corresponding stellar populations, as driven by their specific angular momentum content j, can be explainedmore » in terms of the CW evolution, extended to two processes occurring at lower z. First, the spheroid progenitors strongly lose j at collapse, which contrasts with the insignificant j loss of the disk progenitors. The second is related to the lack of alignment, at assembly, between the spheroid-to-be material and the already settled proto-disk, in contrast to the alignment of disk-to-be material, in some cases resulting from circumgalactic, disk-induced gravitational torques. The different final outcomes of these low-z processes have their origins in the different initial conditions driven by the CW dynamics.« less

Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

PubMed Central

Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

2016-01-01

Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis. PMID:27048866

The Structure of Temperament in Preschoolers: A Two-Stage Factor Analytic Approach

PubMed Central

Dyson, Margaret W.; Olino, Thomas M.; Durbin, C. Emily; Goldsmith, H. Hill; Klein, Daniel N.

2012-01-01

The structure of temperament traits in young children has been the subject of extensive debate, with separate models proposing different trait dimensions. This research has relied almost exclusively on parent-report measures. The present study used an alternative approach, a laboratory observational measure, to explore the structure of temperament in preschoolers. A 2-stage factor analytic approach, exploratory factor analyses (n = 274) followed by confirmatory factor analyses (n = 276), was used. We retrieved an adequately fitting model that consisted of 5 dimensions: Sociability, Positive Affect/Interest, Dysphoria, Fear/Inhibition, and Constraint versus Impulsivity. This solution overlaps with, but is also distinct from, the major models derived from parent-report measures. PMID:21859196

Numerical investigations on the aerodynamics of SHEFEX-III launcher

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Reimann, Bodo; Eggers, Thino

2014-04-01

The present work is a numerical study of the aerodynamic problems related to the hot stage separation of a multistage rocket. The adapter between the first and the second stage of the rocket uses a lattice structure to vent the plume from the 2nd-stage-motor during the staging. The lattice structure acts as an axisymmetric cavity on the rocket and can affect the flight performance. To quantify the effects, the DLR CFD code, TAU, is applied to study the aerodynamic characteristics of the rocket. The CFD code is also used to simulate the start-up transients of the 2nd-stage-motor. Different plume deflectors are also investigated with the CFD techniques. For the CFD computation in this work, a 2-species-calorically-perfect-gas-model without chemical reactions is selected for modeling the rocket plume, which is a compromise between the demands of accuracy and efficiency.

Fluid-Structure Interaction Modeling of Parachutes with Disreefing and Modified Geometric Porosity and Separation Aerodynamics of a Cover Jettisoned to the Spacecraft Wake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritze, Matthew D.

Fluid-structure interaction (FSI) modeling of spacecraft parachutes involves a number of computational challenges. The canopy complexity created by the hundreds of gaps and slits and design-related modification of that geometric porosity by removal of some of the sails and panels are among the formidable challenges. Disreefing from one stage to another when the parachute is used in multiple stages is another formidable challenge. This thesis addresses the computational challenges involved in disreefing of spacecraft parachutes and fully-open and reefed stages of the parachutes with modified geometric porosity. The special techniques developed to address these challenges are described and the FSI computations are be reported. The thesis also addresses the modeling and computation challenges involved in very early stages, where the sudden separation of a cover jettisoned to the spacecraft wake needs to be modeled. Higher-order temporal representations used in modeling the separation motion are described, and the computed separation and wake-induced forces acting on the cover are reported.

Performance improvement CME for quality: challenges inherent to the process.

PubMed

Vakani, Farhan Saeed; O'Beirne, Ronan

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the perspective debates upon the real-time challenges for a three-staged Performance Improvement Continuing Medical Education (PI-CME) model, an innovative and potential approach for future CME, to inform providers to think, prepare and to act proactively. In this discussion, the challenges associated for adopting the American Medical Association's three-staged PI-CME model are reported. Not many institutions in USA are using a three-staged performance improvement model and then customizing it to their own healthcare context for the specific targeted audience. They integrate traditional CME methods with performance and quality initiatives, and linking with CME credits. Overall the US health system is interested in a structured PI-CME model with the potential to improve physicians practicing behaviors. Knowing the dearth of evidence for applying this structured performance improvement methodology into the design of CME activities, and the lack of clarity on challenges inherent to the process that learners and providers encounter. This paper establishes all-important first step to render the set of challenges for a three-staged PI-CME model.

Decisional Stage Distribution for Colorectal Cancer Screening among Diverse, Low-Income Study Participants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hester, C. M.; Born, W. K.; Yeh, H. W.; Young, K. L.; James, A. S.; Daley, C. M.; Greiner, K. A.

2015-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening uptake among minorities and those with lower incomes is suboptimal. Behavioral interventions specifically tailored to these populations can increase screening rates and save lives. The Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM) allows assignment of a decisional stage for adoption of a behavior such as CRC screening.…

[Theoretical grounds of a structural and functional model for quality assurance of radiation diagnostics under conditions of development of the modern health care system in Ukraine].

PubMed

Korop, Oleg A; Lenskykh, Sergiy V

2018-01-01

Introduction: Modern changes in the health care system of Ukraine are focused on financial support in providing medical and diagnostic care to the population and are based on deep and consistent structural and functional transformations. They are aimed at providing adequate quality care, which is the main target function and a principal criterion for operation of health care system. The urgency of this problem is increasing in the context of reforming the health care system and global changes in the governmental financial guarantees for the provision of medical services to the population. The aim of the work is to provide theoretical grounds for a structural and functional model of quality assurance of radiation diagnostics at all levels of medical care given to the population under the current health care reform in Ukraine. Materials and methods: The object of the study is organizing the operation of the radiation diagnostic service; the information is based on the actual data on the characteristics of radiation diagnosis at different levels of medical care provision. Methods of systematic approach, system analysis and structural and functional analysis of the operating system of radiation diagnostics are used. Review: The basis of the quality assurance model is the cyclical process, which includes the stages of the problem identifition, planning of its solution, organization of the system for implementation of decisions, monitoring the quality management process of the radiation diagnostics, and factors influencing the quality of the radiation diagnostics service. These factors include the quality of the structure, process, results, organization of management and control of current processes and the results of radiation diagnostics management. Conclusions: The advantages of the proposed model for ensuring the quality of the radiation diagnostics service are its systemacy and complexity, elimination of identified defects and deficiencies, and achievement of profitability through modern redistribution and use of existing resources of the health care system. The results of adequate service quality management activities in radiation diagnostics are the improvement of organizational and economic principles along with legislative regulation, the implementation of a modern system of radiation diagnostics in the state health care at the national and regional levels, the increase of the accessibility, quality and efficiency of the radiation diagnostics service.

Combining Population Structure with Historic Abitoic Processes to Better Understand Species and Community Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. M.

2015-12-01

The evolution and speciation of plants is directly tied to the environment as the constrained stages of dispersal creates strong genetic differentiation among populations. This can result in differing genetic patterns between nuclear and chloroplast loci, where genes are inherited differently and dispersed via separate vectors. By developing distribution models based on genetic patterns found within a species, it is possible to begin understanding the influence of historic geomorphic and/or climatic processes on population evolution. If genetic patterns of the current range correlate with specific patterns of climate variability within the Pleistocene, it is possible that future shifts in species distribution in response to climate change can be more accurately modelled due to the historic signature that is found within inherited genes. Preliminary genetic analyses of Linanthus dichotomus, an annual herb distributed across California, suggests that the current taxonomic treatment does not accurately depict how this species is evolving. Genetic patterns of chloroplast genes suggest that populations are more correlated with biogeography than what the current nomenclature states. Additionally, chloroplast and nuclear genes show discrepancies in the dispersal across the landscape, suggesting pollinator driven gene flow overcoming seed dispersal boundaries. By comparing discrepancies between pollinator and seed induced gene flow we may be able to gain insight into historical pollinator communities within the Pleistocene. This information can then be applied to projected climate models to more accurately understand how species and/or communities will respond to a changing environment.

Analysing growth and development of plants jointly using developmental growth stages

PubMed Central

Dambreville, Anaëlle; Lauri, Pierre-Éric; Normand, Frédéric; Guédon, Yann

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Plant growth, the increase of organ dimensions over time, and development, the change in plant structure, are often studied as two separate processes. However, there is structural and functional evidence that these two processes are strongly related. The aim of this study was to investigate the co-ordination between growth and development using mango trees, which have well-defined developmental stages. Methods Developmental stages, determined in an expert way, and organ sizes, determined from objective measurements, were collected during the vegetative growth and flowering phases of two cultivars of mango, Mangifera indica. For a given cultivar and growth unit type (either vegetative or flowering), a multistage model based on absolute growth rate sequences deduced from the measurements was first built, and then growth stages deduced from the model were compared with developmental stages. Key Results Strong matches were obtained between growth stages and developmental stages, leading to a consistent definition of integrative developmental growth stages. The growth stages highlighted growth asynchronisms between two topologically connected organs, namely the vegetative axis and its leaves. Conclusions Integrative developmental growth stages emphasize that developmental stages are closely related to organ growth rates. The results are discussed in terms of the possible physiological processes underlying these stages, including plant hydraulics, biomechanics and carbohydrate partitioning. PMID:25452250

Characterization of the 2012-044C Briz-M Upper Stage Breakup

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Joseph A.; Matney, Mark

2013-01-01

The NASA breakup model prediction was close to the observed population for catalog objects. The NASA breakup model predicted a larger population than was observed for objects under 10 cm. The stare technique produces low observation counts, but is readily comparable to model predictions. Customized stare parameters (Az, El, Range) were effective to increase the opportunities for HAX to observe the debris cloud. Other techniques to increase observation count will be considered for future breakup events.

The Armadillo Repeat Protein PF16 Is Essential for Flagellar Structure and Function in Plasmodium Male Gametes

PubMed Central

Ferguson, David J. P.; Bunting, Karen A.; Xu, Zhengyao; Bailes, Elizabeth; Sinden, Robert E.; Holder, Anthony A.; Smith, Elizabeth F.; Coates, Juliet C.; Rita Tewari

2010-01-01

Malaria, caused by the apicomplexan parasite Plasmodium, threatens 40% of the world's population. Transmission between vertebrate and insect hosts depends on the sexual stages of the life-cycle. The male gamete of Plasmodium parasite is the only developmental stage that possesses a flagellum. Very little is known about the identity or function of proteins in the parasite's flagellar biology. Here, we characterise a Plasmodium PF16 homologue using reverse genetics in the mouse malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei. PF16 is a conserved Armadillo-repeat protein that regulates flagellar structure and motility in organisms as diverse as green algae and mice. We show that P. berghei PF16 is expressed in the male gamete flagellum, where it plays a crucial role maintaining the correct microtubule structure in the central apparatus of the axoneme as studied by electron microscopy. Disruption of the PF16 gene results in abnormal flagellar movement and reduced fertility, but does not lead to complete sterility, unlike pf16 mutations in other organisms. Using homology modelling, bioinformatics analysis and complementation studies in Chlamydomonas, we show that some regions of the PF16 protein are highly conserved across all eukaryotes, whereas other regions may have species-specific functions. PF16 is the first ARM-repeat protein characterised in the malaria parasite genus Plasmodium and this study opens up a novel model for analysis of Plasmodium flagellar biology that may provide unique insights into an ancient organelle and suggest novel intervention strategies to control the malaria parasite. PMID:20886115

A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

2006-01-01

Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a Bayesian hierarchical discrete-choice model for resource selection can provide managers with 2 components of population-level inference: average population selection and variability of selection. Both components are necessary to make sound management decisions based on animal selection.

Evaluating Effectiveness of Modeling Motion System Feedback in the Enhanced Hess Structural Model of the Human Operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaychik, Kirill; Cardullo, Frank; George, Gary; Kelly, Lon C.

2009-01-01

In order to use the Hess Structural Model to predict the need for certain cueing systems, George and Cardullo significantly expanded it by adding motion feedback to the model and incorporating models of the motion system dynamics, motion cueing algorithm and a vestibular system. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate effectiveness of these innovations by performing a comparison analysis of the model performance with and without the expanded motion feedback. The proposed methodology is composed of two stages. The first stage involves fine-tuning parameters of the original Hess structural model in order to match the actual control behavior recorded during the experiments at NASA Visual Motion Simulator (VMS) facility. The parameter tuning procedure utilizes a new automated parameter identification technique, which was developed at the Man-Machine Systems Lab at SUNY Binghamton. In the second stage of the proposed methodology, an expanded motion feedback is added to the structural model. The resulting performance of the model is then compared to that of the original one. As proposed by Hess, metrics to evaluate the performance of the models include comparison against the crossover models standards imposed on the crossover frequency and phase margin of the overall man-machine system. Preliminary results indicate the advantage of having the model of the motion system and motion cueing incorporated into the model of the human operator. It is also demonstrated that the crossover frequency and the phase margin of the expanded model are well within the limits imposed by the crossover model.

Intermittence for humans spreading 45,000 years ago: from Eurasia to the Americas.

PubMed

Flores, J C; Hopp, Renato

2013-10-01

From northeastern Eurasia to the Americas, a three-stage spread of modern humans is considered through large-scale intermittence (exploitation/relocation). Conceptually, this work supports intermittence as a real strategy for colonization of new habitats. For the first stage, northeastern Eurasia travel, we adapt our model to archaeological dates determining the diffusion coefficient (exploitation phase) as D = 299.44 km2/yr and the velocity parameter (relocation phase) as vo = 4.8944 km/yr. The relative phase weight (✧0.46) between both kinds of motions is consistent with a moderate biological population rate (r΄ ✧ 0.0046/yr). The second stage is related to population fragmentation. The last stage, reaching Alaska, corresponds essentially to relocation (vo ✧ 0.75 km/yr). Copyright © 2014 Wayne State University Press, Detroit, Michigan 48201-1309.

Effects of Melt Processing on Evolution of Structure in PEEK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georgiev, Georgi; Dai, Patrick Shuanghua; Oyebode, Elizabeth; Cebe, Peggy; Capel, Malcolm

1999-01-01

We report on the effects of melt processing temperature on structure formation in Poly(ether-ether-ketone), PEEK. Real time Small Angle X-ray Scattering, SAXS, and thermal analysis are used to follow the melting behavior after various stages of processing. Assignment of peaks to structural entities within the material, the relative perfection of the crystals, and the possibility of their reorganization, are all influenced by the melt processing history. With the advent of high intensity synchrotron sources of X-radiation, polymer scientists gain a research tool which, when used along with thermal analysis, provides additional structural information about the crystals during growth and subsequent melting. PEEK is an engineering thermoplastic polymer with a very high glass transition temperature (145 C) and crystal melting point (337 C). PEEK has been the subject of recent studies by X-ray scattering in which melt and cold crystallization were followed in real-time. X-ray scattering and thermal studies have been used to address the formation of dual endothermic response which has been variously ascribed to lamellar insertion, dual crystal populations, or melting followed by re-crystallization. Another important issue is whether all of the amorphous phase is located in interlamellar regions, or alternatively whether some is located in "pockets" away from the crystalline lamellar stacks. The interpretation of scattering from lamellar stacks varies depending upon whether such amorphous pockets are formed. Some groups believe all of the amorphous phase is interlamellar. This leads to selection of a smaller thickness for the crystals. Other groups suggest that most amorphous phase is not interlamellar, and this leads to the suggestion that the crystal thickness is larger than the amorphous layer within the stacks. To investigate these ideas, we used SAXS and Differential Scanning Calorimetry to compare results of single and dual stage melt crystallization of PEEK using a treatment scheme involving annealing/crystallization at T(sub a1) followed by annealing at T(sub a2) where either T(sub a1) < T(sub a2) or T(sub a1) > T(sub a2). We proposed a model to explain multiple melting endotherms in PPS, treated according to one or two-stage melt or cold crystallization. Key features of this model are that multiple endotherms: (1) are due to reorganization/recrystallization after cold crystallization; and, (2) are dominated by crystal morphology after melt crystallization at high T. In other words, multiple distinct crystal populations are formed by the latter treatment, leading to observation of multiple melting. PEEK 45OG pellets (ICI Americas) were the starting material for this study. Films were compression molded at 400 C, then quenched to ice water. Samples were heated to 375 C in a Mettler FP80 hot stage and held for three min. to erase crystal seeds before cooling them to T(sub a1) = 280 C . Samples were held at T(sub a2) for a period of time, then immediately heated to 360 C. In the second treatment samples were held at T(sub a1) = 31 C for different crystallization times t(sub c) then cooled to 295 C and held 15 min. In situ (SAXS) experiments were performed at the Brookhaven National Synchrotron Light Source with the sample located inside the Mettler hot stage. The system was equipped with a two-dimensional position sensitive detector. The sample to detector distance was 172.7 cm and the X-ray wavelength was 1.54 Angstroms. SAXS data were taken continuously during the isothermal periods and during the heating to 360 C at 5 C/min. Each SAXS scan was collected for 30 sec. Since the samples were isotropic, circular integration was used to increase the signal to noise ratio. After dual stage melt crystallization with T(sub a1) < T(sub a2) the lower melting endotherm arises from holding at T(sub a1). During cooling a broad distribution of crystals forms, and the low-melting tail is perfected during T(sub al). Heating to T(sub a2) melts these imperfect crystals and allows others with greater average long spacing to form in their place. After dual stage crystallization with T(sub a1) > T(sub a2), the amount of space remaining for additional growth at T(sub a2) depends upon the holding time at T(sub a1). The long period of crystals formed at T(sub a2) is smaller than that formed at T(sub a1) due to growth in a now-restricted geometry. Perfection of crystals is seen as an increase of the intensity of the population scattering at higher s, while the intensity of the population scattering at lower s stays constant. During heating from below to above the minor endotherm, we see rapid decrease of the intensity of the X-ray scattering corresponding to the population of crystals scattering in the shoulder. Another important observation is that after the sample is annealed at 295 C, the shoulder intensity is restored once again. The population scattering at higher s remains longer before it disappears in the sample treated to the second stage of melt crystallization, compared to the sample crystallized with a single stage. This could be interpreted as an effect of continued perfection of the less perfect population, which is also reflected in the increased melting temperature of the smaller endotherm as the holding time at 295 C increases. In the corresponding DSC scans we see a shift in the area and the peak temperature of the lower melting endotherm with an increase of the annealing time.

Cannibalism in discrete-time predator-prey systems.

PubMed

Chow, Yunshyong; Jang, Sophia R-J

2012-01-01

In this study, we propose and investigate a two-stage population model with cannibalism. It is shown that cannibalism can destabilize and lower the magnitude of the interior steady state. However, it is proved that cannibalism has no effect on the persistence of the population. Based on this model, we study two systems of predator-prey interactions where the prey population is cannibalistic. A sufficient condition based on the nontrivial boundary steady state for which both populations can coexist is derived. It is found via numerical simulations that introduction of the predator population may either stabilize or destabilize the prey dynamics, depending on cannibalism coefficients and other vital parameters.

Population profiling in China by gender and age: implication for HIV incidences.

PubMed

Pan, Yuanyi; Wu, Jianhong

2009-11-18

With the world's largest population, HIV spread in China has been closely watched and widely studied by its government and the international community. One important factor that might contribute to the epidemic is China's numerous surplus of men, due to its imbalanced sex ratio in newborns. However, the sex ratio in the human population is often assumed to be 1:1 in most studies of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here, a mathematical model is proposed to estimate the population size in each gender and within different stages of reproduction and sexual activities. This population profiling by age and gender will assist in more precise prediction of HIV incidences. The total population is divided into 6 subgroups by gender and age. A deterministic compartmental model is developed to describe birth, death, age and the interactions among different subgroups, with a focus on the preference for newborn boys and its impact for the sex ratios. Data from 2003 to 2007 is used to estimate model parameters, and simulations predict short-term and long-term population profiles. The population of China will go to a descending track around 2030. Despite the possible underestimated number of newborns in the last couple of years, model-based simulations show that there will be about 28 million male individuals in 2055 without female partners during their sexually active stages. The birth rate in China must be increased to keep the population viable. But increasing the birth rate without balancing the sex ratio in newborns is problematic, as this will generate a large number of surplus males. Besides other social, economic and psychological issues, the impact of this surplus of males on STD incidences, including HIV infections, must be dealt with as early as possible.

Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

PubMed

Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

2004-05-01

Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

The good, the bad and the ugly of marine reserves for fishery yields

PubMed Central

De Leo, Giulio A.; Micheli, Fiorenza

2015-01-01

Marine reserves (MRs) are used worldwide as a means of conserving biodiversity and protecting depleted populations. Despite major investments in MRs, their environmental and social benefits have proven difficult to demonstrate and are still debated. Clear expectations of the possible outcomes of MR establishment are needed to guide and strengthen empirical assessments. Previous models show that reserve establishment in overcapitalized, quota-based fisheries can reduce both catch and population abundance, thereby negating fisheries and even conservation benefits. By using a stage-structured, spatially explicit stochastic model, we show that catches under quota-based fisheries that include a network of MRs can exceed maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under conventional quota management if reserves provide protection to old, large spawners that disproportionally contribute to recruitment outside the reserves. Modelling results predict that the net fishery benefit of MRs is lost when gains in fecundity of old, large individuals are small, is highest in the case of sedentary adults with high larval dispersal, and decreases with adult mobility. We also show that environmental variability may mask fishery benefits of reserve implementation and that MRs may buffer against collapse when sustainable catch quotas are exceeded owing to stock overestimation or systematic overfishing. PMID:26460129

Object-based semi-automatic approach for forest structure characterization using lidar data in heterogeneous Pinus sylvestris stands

Treesearch

C. Pascual; A. Garcia-Abril; L.G. Garcia-Montero; S. Martin-Fernandez; W.B. Cohen

2008-01-01

In this paper, we present a two-stage approach for characterizing the structure of Pinus sylvestris L. stands in forests of central Spain. The first stage was to delimit forest stands using eCognition and a digital canopy height model (DCHM) derived from lidar data. The polygons were then clustered into forest structure types based on the DCHM data...

Dynamics of morphological evolution in experimental Escherichia coli populations.

PubMed

Cui, F; Yuan, B

2016-08-30

Here, we applied a two-stage clonal expansion model of morphological (cell-size) evolution to a long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli. Using this model, we derived the incidence function of the appearance of cell-size stability, the waiting time until this morphological stability, and the conditional and unconditional probabilities of morphological stability. After assessing the parameter values, we verified that the calculated waiting time was consistent with the experimental results, demonstrating the effectiveness of the two-stage model. According to the relative contributions of parameters to the incidence function and the waiting time, cell-size evolution is largely determined by the promotion rate, i.e., the clonal expansion rate of selectively advantageous organisms. This rate plays a prominent role in the evolution of cell size in experimental populations, whereas all other evolutionary forces were found to be less influential.

The impact of natural transformation on adaptation in spatially structured bacterial populations.

PubMed

Moradigaravand, Danesh; Engelstädter, Jan

2014-06-20

Recent studies have demonstrated that natural transformation and the formation of highly structured populations in bacteria are interconnected. In spite of growing evidence about this connection, little is known about the dynamics of natural transformation in spatially structured bacterial populations. In this work, we model the interdependency between the dynamics of the bacterial gene pool and those of environmental DNA in space to dissect the effect of transformation on adaptation. Our model reveals that even with only a single locus under consideration, transformation with a free DNA fragment pool results in complex adaptation dynamics that do not emerge in previous models focusing only on the gene shuffling effect of transformation at multiple loci. We demonstrate how spatial restriction on population growth and DNA diffusion in the environment affect the impact of transformation on adaptation. We found that in structured bacterial populations intermediate DNA diffusion rates predominantly cause transformation to impede adaptation by spreading deleterious alleles in the population. Overall, our model highlights distinctive evolutionary consequences of bacterial transformation in spatially restricted compared to planktonic bacterial populations.

Composition of Bacterial Communities Associated with Aurelia aurita Changes with Compartment, Life Stage, and Population

PubMed Central

Weiland-Bräuer, Nancy; Neulinger, Sven C.; Pinnow, Nicole; Künzel, Sven; Baines, John F.

2015-01-01

The scyphozoan Aurelia aurita is recognized as a key player in marine ecosystems and a driver of ecosystem change. It is thus intensely studied to address ecological questions, although its associations with microorganisms remain so far undescribed. In the present study, the microbiota associated with A. aurita was visualized with fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis, and community structure was analyzed with respect to different life stages, compartments, and populations of A. aurita by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. We demonstrate that the composition of the A. aurita microbiota is generally highly distinct from the composition of communities present in ambient water. Comparison of microbial communities from different developmental stages reveals evidence for life stage-specific community patterns. Significant restructuring of the microbiota during strobilation from benthic polyp to planktonic life stages is present, arguing for a restructuring during the course of metamorphosis. Furthermore, the microbiota present in different compartments of the adult medusa (exumbrella mucus and gastric cavity) display significant differences, indicating body part-specific colonization. A novel Mycoplasma strain was identified in both compartment-specific microbiota and is most likely present inside the epithelium as indicated by FISH analysis of polyps, indicating potential endosymbiosis. Finally, comparison of polyps of different populations kept under the same controlled laboratory conditions in the same ambient water showed population-specific community patterns, most likely due the genetic background of the host. In conclusion, the presented data indicate that the associated microbiota of A. aurita may play important functional roles, e.g., during the life cycle. PMID:26116680

Effect of salinity on the metabolism and osmoregulation of selected ontogenetic stages of an Amazon population of Macrobrachium amazonicum shrimp (Decapoda, Palaemonidae).

PubMed

Mazzarelli, C C M; Santos, M R; Amorim, R V; Augusto, A

2015-05-01

Probably as a function of their wide geographical distribution, the different population of Macrobrachium amazonicum shrimp may present distinct physiological, biochemical, reproductive, behavioral, and ecological patterns. These differences are so accentuated that the existence of allopatric speciation has been suggested, although initial studies indicate that the genetic variability of populations happen at an intraspecific level. Among the biological responses described for M. amazonicum populations, those regarding osmoregulation and metabolism play a key role for being related to the occupation of diverse habitats. To this effect, we investigated osmoregulation through the role of free amino acids in cell volume control and metabolism, through oxygen consumption in larvae (zoeae I, II, V and IX) and/or post-larvae of a M. amazonicum population from Amazon, kept in aquaculture fish hatcheries in the state of São Paulo. The results add information regarding the existence of distinct physiological responses among M. amazonicum populations and suggest that possible adjustments to metabolism and to the use of free amino acids as osmolytes of the regulation of the larvae and post-larvae cell volume depend on the appearance of structures responsible for hemolymph osmoregulation like, for example, the gills. In this respect, we verified that zoeae I do not alter their metabolism due to the exposition to fresh or brackish water, but they reduce intracellular concentration of free amino acids when exposed to fresh water, what may suggest the inexistence or inefficient performance of the structures responsible for volume regulation and hemolymph composition. On the other hand, in zoeae II and V exposed to fresh and brackish water, metabolism alterations were not followed by changes in free amino acids concentration. Thus it is possible, as the structures responsible for osmoregulation and ionic regulation become functional, that the role of free amino acids gets diminished and oxygen consumption elevated, probably due to greater energy expenditure with the active transportation of salts through epithelial membranes. Osmotic challenges also seem to alter throughout development, given that in zoeae II oxygen consumption is elevated on brackish water of 18, but in zoeae V it happens in fresh water. After M. amazonicum metamorphosis, free amino acids begin to play an important role as intracellular osmolytes, because we verified an increase of up to 40% in post-larvae exposed to brackish water of 18. The main free amino acids involved in cell volume regulation of ontogenetic stages evaluated were the non essential ones: glutamic acid, glycine, alanine, arginine, and proline. Interestingly, larvae from estuarine population studied here survived until the zoeae V stage in fresh water, but in some populations far from the sea, zoeae die right after eclosion in fresh water or they do not reach zoeae III stage. In addition, given that in favorable conditions caridean shrimp larvae shorten their development, we may infer that the cultivation environment, in which larvae developed in the present work, was appropriate, because almost all zoeae VIII kept on brackish water underwent metamorphosis directly to post-larvae and did not go through zoeae IX stage.

Development of genetic diversity, differentiation and structure over 500 years in four ponderosa pine populations.

PubMed

Lesser, M R; Parchman, T L; Jackson, S T

2013-05-01

Population history plays an important role in shaping contemporary levels of genetic variation and geographic structure. This is especially true in small, isolated range-margin populations, where effects of inbreeding, genetic drift and gene flow may be more pronounced than in large continuous populations. Effects of landscape fragmentation and isolation distance may have implications for persistence of range-margin populations if they are demographic sinks. We studied four small, disjunct populations of ponderosa pine over a 500-year period. We coupled demographic data obtained through dendroecological methods with microsatellite data to discern how and when contemporary levels of allelic diversity, among and within-population levels of differentiation, and geographic structure, arose. Alleles accumulated rapidly following initial colonization, demonstrating proportionally high levels of gene flow into the populations. At population sizes of approximately 100 individuals, allele accumulation saturated. Levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST) and Jost's D(est)) and diversity within populations (F(IS)) remained stable through time. There was no evidence of geographic genetic structure at any time in the populations' history. Proportionally, high gene flow in the early stages of population growth resulted in rapid accumulation of alleles and quickly created relatively homogenous genetic patterns among populations. Our study demonstrates that contemporary levels of genetic diversity were formed quickly and early in population development. How contemporary genetic diversity accumulates over time is a key facet of understanding population growth and development. This is especially relevant given the extent and speed at which species ranges are predicted to shift in the coming century. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The impact of individual-level heterogeneity on estimated infectious disease burden: a simulation study.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Wallinga, Jacco

2016-12-08

Disease burden is not evenly distributed within a population; this uneven distribution can be due to individual heterogeneity in progression rates between disease stages. Composite measures of disease burden that are based on disease progression models, such as the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), are widely used to quantify the current and future burden of infectious diseases. Our goal was to investigate to what extent ignoring the presence of heterogeneity could bias DALY computation. Simulations using individual-based models for hypothetical infectious diseases with short and long natural histories were run assuming either "population-averaged" progression probabilities between disease stages, or progression probabilities that were influenced by an a priori defined individual-level frailty (i.e., heterogeneity in disease risk) distribution, and DALYs were calculated. Under the assumption of heterogeneity in transition rates and increasing frailty with age, the short natural history disease model predicted 14% fewer DALYs compared with the homogenous population assumption. Simulations of a long natural history disease indicated that assuming homogeneity in transition rates when heterogeneity was present could overestimate total DALYs, in the present case by 4% (95% quantile interval: 1-8%). The consequences of ignoring population heterogeneity should be considered when defining transition parameters for natural history models and when interpreting the resulting disease burden estimates.

Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

PubMed Central

Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

2012-01-01

Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

Effects of food conditions on the development of the population of Temora stylifera: A modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzocchi, M. G.; Buffoni, G.; Carotenuto, Y.; Pasquali, S.; Ribera d'Alcalà, M.

2006-08-01

We integrated field and laboratory data with modeling to determine the extent to which the temporal patterns in population abundance of a copepod species as observed at sea may be explained by differences in production and mortality rates due to diet. A Lagrangian individual-based model utilizing birth and mortality rates whose values and variance were derived from the effects of dietary composition was implemented to simulate the growth of the multi-staged population of Temora stylifera. The four diets considered were represented by unialgal cultures of the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum or the diatom Thalassiosira rotula, a mixture of the two species, and natural particle assemblages < 50 μm. The aim of this work was to set up an exemplary study on a debated issue, i.e., whether the insidious effect of a diatom diet demonstrated in laboratory experiments plays a role in the time course of copepod populations in situ. Our numerical simulations showed that differences in life history parameters, as mainly dependent on diet, caused remarkably different population growth rates. However, our model reproduced the pattern of an average seasonal cycle of T. stylifera in Mediterranean coastal waters only when it utilized time-dependent field data, which evidently integrate all conditions the animals experience at sea. Proper tuning of the mortality term of developmental stages was crucial to reproduce the pattern of the time course of T. stylifera abundance in situ, which confirms that this term plays a major role in shaping the copepod population dynamics. The model also showed that, while dietary composition affects the population growth, it is far from being the only determinant of the cycle of abundance of T. stylifera at sea.

Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

PubMed

Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

2015-12-01

We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p < 0.0001 for differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk prediction for type 2 diabetes using readily available administrative data is feasible and has better prediction performance than classical diabetes risk prediction algorithms on very large populations with missing data. The new model enables intervention allocation at national scale quickly and accurately and recovers potentially novel risk factors at different stages before the disease onset.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

PubMed

Drum, Ryan G; Ribic, Christine A; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

2015-01-01

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes

PubMed Central

Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine A.; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

2015-01-01

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds. PMID:26569108

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

2015-01-01

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Phylogeography of Pinus subsection Australes in the Caribbean Basin

PubMed Central

Jardón-Barbolla, Lev; Delgado-Valerio, Patricia; Geada-López, Gretel; Vázquez-Lobo, Alejandra; Piñero, Daniel

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Four species of Pinus subsection Australes occur in the Caribbean Basin: P. caribaea, P. cubensis, P. maestrensis and P. occidentalis. This study analyses the phylogeography of these species to assess possible colonization events from Central America to the islands and subsequent population expansions during glacial periods driven by both drier climate and larger emerged land areas. Methods Allele size data were obtained for plastid microsatellites for 314 individuals from 24 populations, covering the distribution range of subsection Australes in the Caribbean Basin. Key Results In total, 113 plastid haplotypes were identified. The highest genetic diversity was found in populations of P. caribaea. Overall, Caribbean Basin populations fit the isolation by distance model. Significant phylogeographical structure was found (RST = 0·671 > permuted RST = 0·101; P < 0·0001). The haplotype network and a Bayesian analysis of population structure (BAPS) indicated different Central American origins for P. caribaea var. bahamensis and P. caribaea var. caribaea plastids, with Central America populations in northern and south-eastern groups. Sudden expansion times for BAPS clusters were close to three glacial maxima. Conclusions Central America contains ancestral plastid haplotypes. Population expansion has played a major role in the distribution of genetic diversity in P. caribaea var. hondurensis. Two colonization events gave rise to the P. caribaea var. bahamensis and P. caribaea var. caribaea lineages. Plastid variation in the eastern species (P. cubensis, P. maestrensis and P. occidentalis) evolved independently from that in P. caribaea var. caribaea. Incomplete lineage sorting between P. cubensis and P. maestrensis is apparent. Inferred expansion times for P. caribaea var. bahamensis and for the eastern lineages correspond to glacial maxima, whereas those for P. caribaea var. hondurensis correspond to the beginning of the temperature decrease that led to Marine Isotope Stage 8. PMID:21118838

Models and analysis for multivariate failure time data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Joanna Huang

The goal of this research is to develop and investigate models and analytic methods for multivariate failure time data. We compare models in terms of direct modeling of the margins, flexibility of dependency structure, local vs. global measures of association, and ease of implementation. In particular, we study copula models, and models produced by right neutral cumulative hazard functions and right neutral hazard functions. We examine the changes of association over time for families of bivariate distributions induced from these models by displaying their density contour plots, conditional density plots, correlation curves of Doksum et al, and local cross ratios of Oakes. We know that bivariate distributions with same margins might exhibit quite different dependency structures. In addition to modeling, we study estimation procedures. For copula models, we investigate three estimation procedures. the first procedure is full maximum likelihood. The second procedure is two-stage maximum likelihood. At stage 1, we estimate the parameters in the margins by maximizing the marginal likelihood. At stage 2, we estimate the dependency structure by fixing the margins at the estimated ones. The third procedure is two-stage partially parametric maximum likelihood. It is similar to the second procedure, but we estimate the margins by the Kaplan-Meier estimate. We derive asymptotic properties for these three estimation procedures and compare their efficiency by Monte-Carlo simulations and direct computations. For models produced by right neutral cumulative hazards and right neutral hazards, we derive the likelihood and investigate the properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, we develop goodness of fit tests for the dependency structure in the copula models. We derive a test statistic and its asymptotic properties based on the test of homogeneity of Zelterman and Chen (1988), and a graphical diagnostic procedure based on the empirical Bayes approach. We study the performance of these two methods using actual and computer generated data.

The demographic transition: an attempt to reformulate a population theory.

PubMed

Hofsten, E

1981-01-01

In this effort to reformulate the demographic transition theory, attention is directed to the following: Malthus and Karl Marx's criticism of his principle of population; the 1st stage of transition, i.e., high mortality, high fertility, and slow population growth; the 2nd stage of declining mortality; the 3rd stage of declining fertility; the 4th stage when mortality and fertility are both low; the growth potential; and the demographic transition in the 3rd world countries. The demographic transition theory has become popular among demographers, economists, historians, and others interested in studying the development of population over time since the end of World War 2. This interest has most likely been created by the anxiety over the population explosion in the 3rd world countries. Transition has made demographers believe that the period of rapid population growth will be automatically succeeded by a period of more or less constant population size. The question that arises is whether it is as simple as that. Demographic transition has to a great extent taken the place of Malthus' principle of population as a general theory of population. Demographic transition appears to describe in a satisfactory way the development of population which all currently industrialized countires have passed through, when going from the preindustrial to the present industrialized stage. The objectives to demographic transition as a general theory are considered. Some of the factors which have accounted for the decline in fertility in Europe may also apply to the 3rd world countries. 1 such factor is the effect of reduced infant and child mortality on the individual level. The fertility decline, caused by reduced infant and child mortality may, however, be of limited size. The great amount of unemployment in the 3rd world may affect fertility in a downward direction. The fertility decline in Europe occurred simultaneously with an industrialization process, which gradually covered the entire population. In most 3rd world countries the "modernization" that is going on implies that a small industrialized sector with its subsistence agriculture is left more or less untouched. There remains a strong incentive for many children in this kind of society. A rapid decline in fertility cannot be expected under these circumstances. To realize a thorough change in the social structure and in the social relations is necessary.

Correcting for population structure and kinship using the linear mixed model: theory and extensions.

PubMed

Hoffman, Gabriel E

2013-01-01

Population structure and kinship are widespread confounding factors in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). It has been standard practice to include principal components of the genotypes in a regression model in order to account for population structure. More recently, the linear mixed model (LMM) has emerged as a powerful method for simultaneously accounting for population structure and kinship. The statistical theory underlying the differences in empirical performance between modeling principal components as fixed versus random effects has not been thoroughly examined. We undertake an analysis to formalize the relationship between these widely used methods and elucidate the statistical properties of each. Moreover, we introduce a new statistic, effective degrees of freedom, that serves as a metric of model complexity and a novel low rank linear mixed model (LRLMM) to learn the dimensionality of the correction for population structure and kinship, and we assess its performance through simulations. A comparison of the results of LRLMM and a standard LMM analysis applied to GWAS data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) illustrates how our theoretical results translate into empirical properties of the mixed model. Finally, the analysis demonstrates the ability of the LRLMM to substantially boost the strength of an association for HDL cholesterol in Europeans.

The effect of stochiastic technique on estimates of population viability from transition matrix models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaye, T.N.; Pyke, David A.

2003-01-01

Population viability analysis is an important tool for conservation biologists, and matrix models that incorporate stochasticity are commonly used for this purpose. However, stochastic simulations may require assumptions about the distribution of matrix parameters, and modelers often select a statistical distribution that seems reasonable without sufficient data to test its fit. We used data from long-term (5a??10 year) studies with 27 populations of five perennial plant species to compare seven methods of incorporating environmental stochasticity. We estimated stochastic population growth rate (a measure of viability) using a matrix-selection method, in which whole observed matrices were selected at random at each time step of the model. In addition, we drew matrix elements (transition probabilities) at random using various statistical distributions: beta, truncated-gamma, truncated-normal, triangular, uniform, or discontinuous/observed. Recruitment rates were held constant at their observed mean values. Two methods of constraining stage-specific survival to a??100% were also compared. Different methods of incorporating stochasticity and constraining matrix column sums interacted in their effects and resulted in different estimates of stochastic growth rate (differing by up to 16%). Modelers should be aware that when constraining stage-specific survival to 100%, different methods may introduce different levels of bias in transition element means, and when this happens, different distributions for generating random transition elements may result in different viability estimates. There was no species effect on the results and the growth rates derived from all methods were highly correlated with one another. We conclude that the absolute value of population viability estimates is sensitive to model assumptions, but the relative ranking of populations (and management treatments) is robust. Furthermore, these results are applicable to a range of perennial plants and possibly other life histories.

From stage to age in variable environments: life expectancy and survivorship.

PubMed

Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C

2006-06-01

Stage-based demographic data are now available on many species of plants and some animals, and they often display temporal and spatial variability. We provide exact formulas to compute age-specific life expectancy and survivorship from stage-based data for three models of temporal variability: cycles, serially independent random variation, and a Markov chain. These models provide a comprehensive description of patterns of temporal variation. Our formulas describe the effects of cohort (birth) environmental condition on mortality at all ages, and of the effects on survivorship of environmental variability experienced over the course of life. This paper complements existing methods for time-invariant stage-based data, and adds to the information on population growth and dynamics available from stochastic demography.

Counseling middle-aged women about physical activity using the stages of change.

PubMed

Dearden, Jennifer S; Sheahan, Sharon L

2002-11-01

To discuss application of the Stages of Change theoretical framework and provide clinical tips on exercise adherence among midlife women. Included is a checklist to assist the nurse practitioner (NP) in effectively delivering the message. Review of the current scientific literature on exercise adherence and the Stages of Change model. Middle-aged women comprise a unique population. Determining the woman's readiness for change using the Stages of Change model, NPs can routinely include appropriate exercise recommendations in their practices. Nurse practitioners are in a unique position to promote healthy behaviors by counseling women in midlife about adopting an active lifestyle. Exercise counseling is an essential component of healthcare, especially among middle-aged women who are experiencing physical, emotional, and social changes.

The Structure of Morpho-Functional Conditions Determining the Level of Sports Performance of Young Badminton Players

PubMed Central

Jaworski, Janusz; Żak, Michał

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to determine the structure of morpho-functional models that determine the level of sports performance in three consecutive stages of training of young badminton players. In the course of the study, 3 groups of young badminton players were examined: 40 preadolescents aged 11–13, 32 adolescents aged 14–16, and 24 adolescents aged 17–19. The scope of the study involved basic anthropometric measurements, computer tests analysing motor coordination abilities, motor skills encompassing speed, muscular power and strength, and cardiorespiratory endurance. Results of the study indicate that the structure of morpho-functional models varies at different stages of sports training. Sets of variables determining sports performance create characteristic complexes of variables that do not constitute permanent models. The dominance of somatic features and coordination abilities in the early stages of badminton training changes for the benefit of speed and strength abilities. PMID:26557205

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Cytoplasmic inheritance of parent-offspring cell structure in the clonal diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana.

PubMed

Shirokawa, Yuka; Shimada, Masakazu

2016-11-16

In cytoplasmic inheritance, structural states of a parent cell could be transmitted to offspring cells via two mechanisms. The first is referred to as the hangover of parent structure, where the structure itself remains and faithfully transmits within offspring cells; the second is structural inheritance, wherein the parent structure functions as a template for development of new offspring structure. We estimated to what extent the parent structure affects the development of offspring structure by structural inheritance, using a clone of the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana The cell has two siliceous valves (a cell wall part at both cell poles): one is inherited from the parent and the other is newly formed. We estimated cytoplasmic heritability by comparing valve traits (central fultoportulae (CTFP), striae, central area, and cell diameter) of parent and new offspring valves, using single-cell isolation and valve labelling. Parent-offspring valve trait regressions showed that all traits, except CTFP, were significantly correlated. We formulated a quantitative genetic model considering the diatom inheritance system and revealed short-term rapid evolution compared with other inheritance systems. Diatom structural inheritance will have evolved to enable clonal populations to rapidly acquire and maintain suitable structures for temporal changes in environments and life-cycle stages. © 2016 The Author(s).

Vegetation Structure of Ebony Leaf Monkey (Trachypithecus auratus) Habitat in Kecubung Ulolanang Nature Preservation Central Java-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ervina, Rahmawati; Wasiq, Hidayat Jafron

2018-02-01

Kecubung Ulolanang Nature Preservation is ebony leaf monkey's habitats in Central Java Indonesia. Continuously degradation of their population is caused by illegal hunting and habitat degradation that made this species being vulnerable. Habitat conservation is one of important aspects to prevent them from extinction. The purpose of this research was to analyze the vegetation's structure and composition, which was potentially, becomes habitat and food source for the monkeys. Data collected using purposive sampling with line transect method of four different level of vegetation. Data analysis used Important Value Index and Diversity Index. There were 43 species of vegetation at seedling stage, 18 species at sapling stage, 8 species at poles stage and 27 species at trees stage. Species that had the highest important value index at seedling was Stenochlaena palustri , at the sapling was Gnetum gnemon, at pole was Swietenia mahagoni and at tree was Tectona grandis . Species of trees those were potentially to become habitat (food source) for ebony leaf monkey were T. grandis, Dipterocarpus gracilis, Quercus sundaica and Ficus superba. The highest diversity index was at seedling gwoth stage.

Rapidity distributions of hadrons in the HydHSD hybrid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khvorostukhin, A. S.; Toneev, V. D.

2017-03-01

A multistage hybrid model intended for describing heavy-ion interactions in the energy region of the NICA collider under construction in Dubna is proposed. The model combines the initial, fast, interaction stage described by the model of hadron string dynamics (HSD) and the subsequent evolution that the expanding system formed at the first stage experiences at the second stage and which one treats on the basis of ideal hydrodynamics; after the completion of the second stage, the particles involved may still undergo rescattering (third interaction stage). The model admits three freeze-out scenarios: isochronous, isothermal, and isoenergetic. Generally, the HydHSD hybrid model developed in the present study provides fairly good agreement with available experimental data on proton rapidity spectra. It is shown that, within this hybrid model, the two-humped structure of proton rapidity distributions can be obtained either by increasing the freeze-out temperature and energy density or by more lately going over to the hydrodynamic stage. Although the proposed hybrid model reproduces rapidity spectra of protons, it is unable to describe rapidity distributions of pions, systematically underestimating their yield. It is necessary to refine the model by including viscosity effects at the hydrodynamic stage of evolution of the system and by considering in more detail the third interaction stage.

Diagnostic approaches for diabetic cardiomyopathy and myocardial fibrosis

PubMed Central

Maya, Lisandro; Villarreal, Francisco J.

2009-01-01

In diabetes mellitus, alterations in cardiac structure/function in the absence of ischemic heart disease, hypertension or other cardiac pathologies is termed diabetic cardiomyopathy. In the United States, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus continues to rise and the disease currently affects about 8% of the general population. Hence, it is imperative the use of appropriate diagnostic strategies for diabetic cardiomyopathy, which may help correctly identify the disease at early stages and implement suitable corrective therapies. Currently, there is no single diagnostic method for the identification of diabetic cardiomyopathy. Diabetic cardiomyopathy is known to induce changes in cardiac structure such as, myocardial hypertrophy, fibrosis and fat droplet deposition. Early changes in cardiac function are typically manifested as abnormal diastolic function that with time leads to loss of contractile function. Echocardiography based methods currently stands as the preferred diagnostic approach for diabetic cardiomyopathy, due to its wide availability and economical use. In addition to conventional techniques, magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy along with contrast agents are now leading new approaches in the diagnosis of myocardial fibrosis, and cardiac and hepatic metabolic changes. These strategies can be complemented with serum biomarkers so they can offer a clear picture as to diabetes-induced changes in cardiac structure/function even at very early stages of the disease. This review article intends to provide a summary of experimental and routine tools currently available to diagnose diabetic cardiomyopathy induced changes in cardiac structure/function. These tools can be reliably used in either experimental models of diabetes or for clinical applications. PMID:19595694

DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

2014-05-01

In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J.K., Hunter, G.J. (2007) A spatio-temporal population model to support risk assessment and damage analysis for decision-making. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 21(8), 935-953. Aubrecht, C., Fuchs, S., Neuhold, C. (2013a) Spatio-temporal aspects and dimensions in integrated disaster risk management. Natural Hazards, 68(3), 1205-1216. Aubrecht, C., Özceylan, D., Steinnocher, K., Freire, S. (2013b) Multi-level geospatial modeling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators. Natural Hazards, 68(1), 147-163. Bhaduri, B. (2008) Population distribution during the day. In S. Shekhar & X. Hui, eds., Encyclopedia of GIS. Springer US, 880-885. Cockings, S., Martin, D. & Leung, S. (2010) Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models. In M. Haklay, J. Morley, & H. Rahemtulla, eds., Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual conference. GISRUK 2010. London, UK, 41-47. Freire, S., Aubrecht, C. (2012) Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(11), 3533-3543.

Two colonisation stages generate two different patterns of genetic diversity within native and invasive ranges of Ulex europaeus

PubMed Central

Hornoy, B; Atlan, A; Roussel, V; Buckley, Y M; Tarayre, M

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity and the way a species is introduced influence the capacity of populations of invasive species to persist in, and adapt to, their new environment. The diversity of introduced populations affects their evolutionary potential, which is particularly important for species that have invaded a wide range of habitats and climates, such as European gorse, Ulex europaeus. This species originated in the Iberian peninsula and colonised Europe in the Neolithic; over the course of the past two centuries it was introduced to, and has become invasive in, other continents. We characterised neutral genetic diversity and its structure in the native range and in invaded regions. By coupling these results with historical data, we have identified the way in which gorse populations were introduced and the consequences of introduction history on genetic diversity. Our study is based on the genotyping of individuals from 18 populations at six microsatellite loci. As U. europaeus is an allohexaploid species, we used recently developed tools that take into account genotypic ambiguity. Our results show that genetic diversity in gorse is very high and mainly contained within populations. We confirm that colonisation occurred in two stages. During the first stage, gorse spread out naturally from Spain towards northern Europe, losing some genetic diversity. During the second stage, gorse was introduced by humans into different regions of the world, from northern Europe. These introductions resulted in the loss of rare alleles but did not significantly reduce genetic diversity and thus the evolutionary potential of this invasive species. PMID:23759725

Two colonisation stages generate two different patterns of genetic diversity within native and invasive ranges of Ulex europaeus.

PubMed

Hornoy, B; Atlan, A; Roussel, V; Buckley, Y M; Tarayre, M

2013-11-01

Genetic diversity and the way a species is introduced influence the capacity of populations of invasive species to persist in, and adapt to, their new environment. The diversity of introduced populations affects their evolutionary potential, which is particularly important for species that have invaded a wide range of habitats and climates, such as European gorse, Ulex europaeus. This species originated in the Iberian peninsula and colonised Europe in the Neolithic; over the course of the past two centuries it was introduced to, and has become invasive in, other continents. We characterised neutral genetic diversity and its structure in the native range and in invaded regions. By coupling these results with historical data, we have identified the way in which gorse populations were introduced and the consequences of introduction history on genetic diversity. Our study is based on the genotyping of individuals from 18 populations at six microsatellite loci. As U. europaeus is an allohexaploid species, we used recently developed tools that take into account genotypic ambiguity. Our results show that genetic diversity in gorse is very high and mainly contained within populations. We confirm that colonisation occurred in two stages. During the first stage, gorse spread out naturally from Spain towards northern Europe, losing some genetic diversity. During the second stage, gorse was introduced by humans into different regions of the world, from northern Europe. These introductions resulted in the loss of rare alleles but did not significantly reduce genetic diversity and thus the evolutionary potential of this invasive species.

Socioeconomic factors associated with drug consumption in prison population in Mexico.

PubMed

Nevárez-Sida, Armando; Constantino-Casas, Patricia; Castro-Ríos, Angélica

2012-01-13

Consumption of illegal drugs is a public health problem in Mexico, and the prison population is a vulnerable group with higher rates of prevalence than in the general population. The objective of this study was to determine the main socioeconomic variables associated with drug consumption in the prison population. Utilizing data from the Second Incarcerated Population Survey carried out by the Centre of Research and Teaching of Economics (CIDE) in Mexico, a logistic model in two stages was developed. The first stage analyzed the determinants of habitual drug consumption by prisoners (prior to admittance into prisons), while the second stage of the model addressed drug consumption within prisons. Prevalence of drug consumption previous to incarceration was 28.5%, although once people were imprisoned this figure dropped to 7.4%. The characteristics that most heavily influenced against the possibility of habitual drug consumption prior to admittance to prison were: preparatory school or higher, being employed and having children; while the variables associated negatively were: male gender, childhood home shared with adults who consumed illegal drugs; abandoning childhood home; and having previous prison sentences. Once in prison, the negative conditions in there are associated with drug consumption. Work and study during incarceration, in addition to being instruments for rehabilitation, seem to exert an important positive association against drug consumption. However, this correlation seems to be minimized in the face of negative conditions of the penal institution; thus, public policies are necessary to improve the prisoner's environment.

Socioeconomic factors associated with drug consumption in prison population in Mexico

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Consumption of illegal drugs is a public health problem in Mexico, and the prison population is a vulnerable group with higher rates of prevalence than in the general population. The objective of this study was to determine the main socioeconomic variables associated with drug consumption in the prison population. Methods Utilizing data from the Second Incarcerated Population Survey carried out by the Centre of Research and Teaching of Economics (CIDE) in Mexico, a logistic model in two stages was developed. The first stage analyzed the determinants of habitual drug consumption by prisoners (prior to admittance into prisons), while the second stage of the model addressed drug consumption within prisons. Results Prevalence of drug consumption previous to incarceration was 28.5%, although once people were imprisoned this figure dropped to 7.4%. The characteristics that most heavily influenced against the possibility of habitual drug consumption prior to admittance to prison were: preparatory school or higher, being employed and having children; while the variables associated negatively were: male gender, childhood home shared with adults who consumed illegal drugs; abandoning childhood home; and having previous prison sentences. Once in prison, the negative conditions in there are associated with drug consumption. Conclusions Work and study during incarceration, in addition to being instruments for rehabilitation, seem to exert an important positive association against drug consumption. However, this correlation seems to be minimized in the face of negative conditions of the penal institution; thus, public policies are necessary to improve the prisoner's environment. PMID:22244315

Structure-property relations and modeling of small crack fatigue behavior of various magnesium alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, Jairus Daniel

Lightweight structural components are important to the automotive and aerospace industries so that better fuel economy can be realized. Magnesium alloys in particular are being examined to fulfill this need due to their attractive stiffness- and strength-to-weight ratios when compared to other materials. However, when introducing a material into new roles, one needs to properly characterize its mechanical properties. Fatigue behavior is especially important considering aerospace and automotive component applications. Therefore, quantifying the structure-property relationships and accurately predicting the fatigue behavior for these materials are vital. This study has two purposes. The first is to quantify the structure-property relationships for the fatigue behavior in an AM30 magnesium alloy. The second is to use the microstructural-based MultiStage Fatigue (MSF) model in order to accurately predict the fatigue behavior of three magnesium alloys: AM30, Elektron 21, and AZ61. While some studies have previously quantified the MSF material constants for several magnesium alloys, detailed research into the fatigue regimes, notably the microstructurally small crack (MSC) region, is lacking. Hence, the contribution of this work is the first of its kind to experimentally quantify the fatigue crack incubation and MSC regimes that are used for the MultiStage Fatigue model. Using a multi-faceted experimental approach, these regimes were explored with a replica method that used a dual-stage silicone based compound along with previously published in situ fatigue tests. These observations were used in calibrating the MultiStage Fatigue model.

Disease management programs for heart failure: not just for the 'sick' heart failure population.

PubMed

McDonald, Ken; Conlon, Carmel; Ledwidge, Mark

2007-02-01

The development of disease management programs has been a major advance in heart failure care, bringing about significant improvements for the heart failure population, with reduction in readmission, better use of guideline therapy and improved survival. However, at present, the majority of such programs focus their attention only on the sicker segment of this population, with little application of this important service to the broader heart failure population, where potentially benefits may be even more impressive. This has led to an imbalance in the care of patients with heart failure, where aspects of management such as regular structured review and education are preferentially given to the group at the later stages of the natural history of the syndrome. This paper argues for a far wider application of the disease management program concept in heart failure care so as to bring the benefits of specialist care, patient education and follow-up to patients at an earlier stage in the natural history of heart failure.

Sustainable Transportation Attitudes and Health Behavior Change: Evaluation of a Brief Stage-Targeted Video Intervention

PubMed Central

Mundorf, Norbert; Redding, Colleen A.; Paiva, Andrea L.

2018-01-01

Promoting physical activity and sustainable transportation is essential in the face of rising health care costs, obesity rates, and other public health threats resulting from lack of physical activity. Targeted communications can encourage distinct population segments to adopt active and sustainable transportation modes. Our work is designed to promote the health, social, and environmental benefits of sustainable/active transportation (ST) using the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM), which has been successfully applied to a range of health, and more recently, sustainability behaviors. Earlier, measurement development confirmed both the structure of ST pros and cons and efficacy measures as well as the relationship between these constructs and ST stages of change, replicating results found for many other behaviors. The present paper discusses a brief pre-post video pilot intervention study designed for precontemplators and contemplators (N = 604) that was well received, effective in moving respondents towards increased readiness for ST behavior change, and improving some ST attitudes, significantly reducing the cons of ST. This research program shows that a brief stage-targeted behavior change video can increase readiness and reduce the cons for healthy transportation choices. PMID:29346314

Sustainable Transportation Attitudes and Health Behavior Change: Evaluation of a Brief Stage-Targeted Video Intervention.

PubMed

Mundorf, Norbert; Redding, Colleen A; Paiva, Andrea L

2018-01-18

Promoting physical activity and sustainable transportation is essential in the face of rising health care costs, obesity rates, and other public health threats resulting from lack of physical activity. Targeted communications can encourage distinct population segments to adopt active and sustainable transportation modes. Our work is designed to promote the health, social, and environmental benefits of sustainable/active transportation (ST) using the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM), which has been successfully applied to a range of health, and more recently, sustainability behaviors. Earlier, measurement development confirmed both the structure of ST pros and cons and efficacy measures as well as the relationship between these constructs and ST stages of change, replicating results found for many other behaviors. The present paper discusses a brief pre-post video pilot intervention study designed for precontemplators and contemplators (N = 604) that was well received, effective in moving respondents towards increased readiness for ST behavior change, and improving some ST attitudes, significantly reducing the cons of ST. This research program shows that a brief stage-targeted behavior change video can increase readiness and reduce the cons for healthy transportation choices.

Accounting for Population Structure in Gene-by-Environment Interactions in Genome-Wide Association Studies Using Mixed Models.

PubMed

Sul, Jae Hoon; Bilow, Michael; Yang, Wen-Yun; Kostem, Emrah; Furlotte, Nick; He, Dan; Eskin, Eleazar

2016-03-01

Although genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have discovered numerous novel genetic variants associated with many complex traits and diseases, those genetic variants typically explain only a small fraction of phenotypic variance. Factors that account for phenotypic variance include environmental factors and gene-by-environment interactions (GEIs). Recently, several studies have conducted genome-wide gene-by-environment association analyses and demonstrated important roles of GEIs in complex traits. One of the main challenges in these association studies is to control effects of population structure that may cause spurious associations. Many studies have analyzed how population structure influences statistics of genetic variants and developed several statistical approaches to correct for population structure. However, the impact of population structure on GEI statistics in GWASs has not been extensively studied and nor have there been methods designed to correct for population structure on GEI statistics. In this paper, we show both analytically and empirically that population structure may cause spurious GEIs and use both simulation and two GWAS datasets to support our finding. We propose a statistical approach based on mixed models to account for population structure on GEI statistics. We find that our approach effectively controls population structure on statistics for GEIs as well as for genetic variants.

Prevention of congenital defects induced by prenatal alcohol exposure (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, Megan M.; Karunamuni, Ganga; Pedersen, Cameron J.; Gu, Shi; Doughman, Yong Qiu; Jenkins, Michael W.; Watanabe, Michiko; Rollins, Andrew M.

2017-02-01

Over 500,000 women per year in the United States drink during pregnancy, and 1 in 5 of this population also binge drink. Up to 40% of live-born children with prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) present with congenital heart defects (CHDs) including life-threatening outflow and valvuloseptal anomalies. Previously we established a PAE model in the avian embryo and used optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging to assay looping-stage (early) cardiac function/structure and septation-stage (late) cardiac defects. Early-stage ethanol-exposed embryos had smaller cardiac cushions (valve precursors) and increased retrograde flow, while late-stage embryos presented with gross head/body defects, and exhibited smaller atrio-ventricular (AV) valves, interventricular septae, and aortic vessels. However, supplementation with the methyl donor betaine reduced gross defects, prevented cardiac defects such as ventricular septal defects and abnormal AV valves, and normalized cardiac parameters. Immunofluorescent staining for 5-methylcytosine in transverse embryo sections also revealed that DNA methylation levels were reduced by ethanol but normalized by co-administration of betaine. Furthermore, supplementation with folate, another methyl donor, in the PAE model appeared to normalize retrograde flow levels which are typically elevated by ethanol exposure. Studies are underway to correlate retrograde flow numbers for folate with associated cushion volumes. Finally, preliminary findings have revealed that glutathione, a key endogenous antioxidant which also regulates methyl group donation, is particularly effective in improving alcohol-impacted survival and gross defect rates. Current investigations will determine whether glutathione has any positive effect on PAE-related CHDs. Our studies could have significant implications for public health, especially related to prenatal nutrition recommendations.

Life histories and conservation of long-lived reptiles, an illustration with the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs-Gonzalez, Venetia; Bonefant, Christophe; Basille, Mathieu; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Beauchamp, Jeff; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Successful species conservation is dependent on adequate estimates of population dynamics, but age-specific demographics are generally lacking for many long-lived iteroparous species such as large reptiles. Accurate demographic information allows estimation of population growth rate, as well as projection of future population sizes and quantitative analyses of fitness trade-offs involved in the evolution of life-history strategies.Here, a long-term capture–recapture study was conducted from 1978 to 2014 on the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida. Over the study period, 7,427 hatchlings were marked and 380 individuals were recaptured for as many as 25 years. We estimated survival to be strongly age dependent with hatchlings having the lowest survival rates (16%) but increasing to nearly 90% at adulthood based on mark–recapture models. More than 5% of the female population were predicted to be reproductive by age 8 years; the age-specific proportion of reproductive females steadily increased until age 18 when more than 95% of females were predicted to be reproductive. Population growth rate, estimated from a Leslie–Lefkovitch stage-class model, showed a positive annual growth rate of 4% over the study period.Using a prospective sensitivity analysis, we revealed that the adult stage, as expected, was the most critical stage for population growth rate; however, the survival of younger crocodiles before they became reproductive also had a surprisingly high elasticity. We found that variation in age-specific fecundity has very limited impact on population growth rate in American crocodiles.We used a comparative approach to show that the original life-history strategy of American crocodiles is actually shared by other large, long-lived reptiles: while adult survival rates always have a large impact on population growth, this decreases with declining increasing growth rates, in favour of a higher elasticity of the juvenile stage.Crocodiles, as a long-lived and highly fecund species, deviate from the usual association of life histories of “slow” species. Current management practices are focused on nests and hatchling survival; however, protection efforts that extend to juvenile crocodiles would be most effective for conservation of the species, especially in an ever-developing landscape.

An Agent-Based Modeling Template for a Cohort of Veterans with Diabetic Retinopathy.

PubMed

Day, Theodore Eugene; Ravi, Nathan; Xian, Hong; Brugh, Ann

2013-01-01

Agent-based models are valuable for examining systems where large numbers of discrete individuals interact with each other, or with some environment. Diabetic Veterans seeking eye care at a Veterans Administration hospital represent one such cohort. The objective of this study was to develop an agent-based template to be used as a model for a patient with diabetic retinopathy (DR). This template may be replicated arbitrarily many times in order to generate a large cohort which is representative of a real-world population, upon which in-silico experimentation may be conducted. Agent-based template development was performed in java-based computer simulation suite AnyLogic Professional 6.6. The model was informed by medical data abstracted from 535 patient records representing a retrospective cohort of current patients of the VA St. Louis Healthcare System Eye clinic. Logistic regression was performed to determine the predictors associated with advancing stages of DR. Predicted probabilities obtained from logistic regression were used to generate the stage of DR in the simulated cohort. The simulated cohort of DR patients exhibited no significant deviation from the test population of real-world patients in proportion of stage of DR, duration of diabetes mellitus (DM), or the other abstracted predictors. Simulated patients after 10 years were significantly more likely to exhibit proliferative DR (P<0.001). Agent-based modeling is an emerging platform, capable of simulating large cohorts of individuals based on manageable data abstraction efforts. The modeling method described may be useful in simulating many different conditions where course of disease is described in categorical stages.

Analysing growth and development of plants jointly using developmental growth stages.

PubMed

Dambreville, Anaëlle; Lauri, Pierre-Éric; Normand, Frédéric; Guédon, Yann

2015-01-01

Plant growth, the increase of organ dimensions over time, and development, the change in plant structure, are often studied as two separate processes. However, there is structural and functional evidence that these two processes are strongly related. The aim of this study was to investigate the co-ordination between growth and development using mango trees, which have well-defined developmental stages. Developmental stages, determined in an expert way, and organ sizes, determined from objective measurements, were collected during the vegetative growth and flowering phases of two cultivars of mango, Mangifera indica. For a given cultivar and growth unit type (either vegetative or flowering), a multistage model based on absolute growth rate sequences deduced from the measurements was first built, and then growth stages deduced from the model were compared with developmental stages. Strong matches were obtained between growth stages and developmental stages, leading to a consistent definition of integrative developmental growth stages. The growth stages highlighted growth asynchronisms between two topologically connected organs, namely the vegetative axis and its leaves. Integrative developmental growth stages emphasize that developmental stages are closely related to organ growth rates. The results are discussed in terms of the possible physiological processes underlying these stages, including plant hydraulics, biomechanics and carbohydrate partitioning. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

2007-01-01

Age structure proportions (proportion of harvested individuals within each age class) are commonly used as support for regulatory restrictions and input for deer population models. Such use requires critical evaluation when harvest regulations force hunters to selectively harvest specific age classes, due to impact on the underlying population age structure. We used a stochastic population simulation model to evaluate the impact of using harvest proportions to evaluate changes in population age structure under a selective harvest management program at two scales. Using harvest proportions to parameterize the age-specific harvest segment of the model for the local scale showed that predictions of post-harvest age structure did not vary dependent upon whether selective harvest criteria were in use or not. At the county scale, yearling frequency in the post-harvest population increased, but model predictions indicated that post-harvest population size of 2.5 years old males would decline below levels found before implementation of the antler restriction, reducing the number of individuals recruited into older age classes. Across the range of age-specific harvest rates modeled, our simulation predicted that underestimation of age-specific harvest rates has considerable influence on predictions of post-harvest population age structure. We found that the consequence of uncertainty in harvest rates corresponds to uncertainty in predictions of residual population structure, and this correspondence is proportional to scale. Our simulations also indicate that regardless of use of harvest proportions or harvest rates, at either the local or county scale the modeled SHC had a high probability (>0.60 and >0.75, respectively) of eliminating recruitment into >2.5 years old age classes. Although frequently used to increase population age structure, our modeling indicated that selective harvest criteria can decrease or eliminate the number of white-tailed deer recruited into older age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapidity distributions of hadrons in the HydHSD hybrid model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khvorostukhin, A. S., E-mail: hvorost@theor.jinr.ru; Toneev, V. D.

2017-03-15

A multistage hybrid model intended for describing heavy-ion interactions in the energy region of the NICA collider under construction in Dubna is proposed. The model combines the initial, fast, interaction stage described by the model of hadron string dynamics (HSD) and the subsequent evolution that the expanding system formed at the first stage experiences at the second stage and which one treats on the basis of ideal hydrodynamics; after the completion of the second stage, the particles involved may still undergo rescattering (third interaction stage). The model admits three freeze-out scenarios: isochronous, isothermal, and isoenergetic. Generally, the HydHSD hybrid modelmore » developed in the present study provides fairly good agreement with available experimental data on proton rapidity spectra. It is shown that, within this hybrid model, the two-humped structure of proton rapidity distributions can be obtained either by increasing the freeze-out temperature and energy density or by more lately going over to the hydrodynamic stage. Although the proposed hybrid model reproduces rapidity spectra of protons, it is unable to describe rapidity distributions of pions, systematically underestimating their yield. It is necessary to refine the model by including viscosity effects at the hydrodynamic stage of evolution of the system and by considering in more detail the third interaction stage.« less

The importance of various stages of succession in preservation of biodiversity among riparian birds in northern Iran.

PubMed

Roshan, Zahra Sepehri; Anushiravani, Sina; Karimi, Soroor; Moradi, Hossein Varasteh; Salmanmahini, Abdol Rasoul

2017-02-01

Every stage of succession may provide certain species with habitat requirements which are impossible in other stages of succession. This study attempts to evaluate the different stages of succession in terms of composition and structure of bird populations in Hyrcanian forests. Bird-habitat relationships were investigated by comparing vegetation characteristics in three successional stages including late, initial stage, and urban areas. Bird richness, diversity, and abundance were measured within a 25-m radius of each of the 120 sampling points in various stages of succession and urban areas from May to April (2014) in the Ziarat catchment. This study indicated that every stage of succession may support certain species. Based on bird-habitat associations along the various stages of succession, two groups were distinguished. Conventional comparative analysis separated two groups of understory birds: interior specialists and edge specialists. The interior-specialist group was positively correlated with the number of dead trees, tall trees with high values of dbh and height and canopy cover. In contrast, edge specialists groups mainly included terrestrial insectivores and were positively correlated with open area and shrub cover, and percentage of shrub cover between 1 and 2 m in height. In summary, bird communities in Hyrcanian forests are highly dynamic in different vegetation covers suggesting that it is critical to increase diverse and abundant bird populations by conserving forests composed of mosaics of differently disturbed stands and mature forest patches.

Biophysical connectivity explains population genetic structure in a highly dispersive marine species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truelove, Nathan K.; Kough, Andrew S.; Behringer, Donald C.; Paris, Claire B.; Box, Stephen J.; Preziosi, Richard F.; Butler, Mark J.

2017-03-01

Connectivity, the exchange of individuals among locations, is a fundamental ecological process that explains how otherwise disparate populations interact. For most marine organisms, dispersal occurs primarily during a pelagic larval phase that connects populations. We paired population structure from comprehensive genetic sampling and biophysical larval transport modeling to describe how spiny lobster ( Panulirus argus) population differentiation is related to biological oceanography. A total of 581 lobsters were genotyped with 11 microsatellites from ten locations around the greater Caribbean. The overall F ST of 0.0016 ( P = 0.005) suggested low yet significant levels of structuring among sites. An isolation by geographic distance model did not explain spatial patterns of genetic differentiation in P. argus ( P = 0.19; Mantel r = 0.18), whereas a biophysical connectivity model provided a significant explanation of population differentiation ( P = 0.04; Mantel r = 0.47). Thus, even for a widely dispersing species, dispersal occurs over a continuum where basin-wide larval retention creates genetic structure. Our study provides a framework for future explorations of wide-scale larval dispersal and marine connectivity by integrating empirical genetic research and probabilistic modeling.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 2: Application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the Ms = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.

Assessing trade-offs to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management of forage fish.

PubMed

Shelton, Andrew Olaf; Samhouri, Jameal F; Stier, Adrian C; Levin, Philip S

2014-11-19

Twenty-first century conservation is centered on negotiating trade-offs between the diverse needs of people and the needs of the other species constituting coupled human-natural ecosystems. Marine forage fishes, such as sardines, anchovies, and herring, are a nexus for such trade-offs because they are both central nodes in marine food webs and targeted by fisheries. An important example is Pacific herring, Clupea pallisii in the Northeast Pacific. Herring populations are subject to two distinct fisheries: one that harvests adults and one that harvests spawned eggs. We develop stochastic, age-structured models to assess the interaction between fisheries, herring populations, and the persistence of predators reliant on herring populations. We show that egg- and adult-fishing have asymmetric effects on herring population dynamics--herring stocks can withstand higher levels of egg harvest before becoming depleted. Second, ecosystem thresholds proposed to ensure the persistence of herring predators do not necessarily pose more stringent constraints on fisheries than conventional, fishery driven harvest guidelines. Our approach provides a general template to evaluate ecosystem trade-offs between stage-specific harvest practices in relation to environmental variability, the risk of fishery closures, and the risk of exceeding ecosystem thresholds intended to ensure conservation goals are met.

Population Explosion in the Yellow-Spined Bamboo Locust Ceracris kiangsu and Inferences for the Impact of Human Activity

PubMed Central

Fan, Zhou; Jiang, Guo-Fang; Liu, Yu-Xiang; He, Qi-Xin; Blanchard, Benjamin

2014-01-01

Geographic distance and geographical barriers likely play a considerable role in structuring genetic variation in species, although some migratory species may have less phylogeographic structure on a smaller spatial scale. Here, genetic diversity and the phylogenetic structure among geographical populations of the yellow-spined bamboo locust, Ceracris kiangsu, were examined with 16S rDNA and amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In this study, no conspicuous phylogeographical structure was discovered from either Maximum parsimony (MP) and Neighbor-joining (NJ) phylogenetic analyses. The effect of geographical isolation was not conspicuous on a large spatial scale.At smaller spatial scales local diversity of some populations within mountainous areas were detected using Nei's genetic distance and AMOVA. There is a high level of genetic diversity and a low genetic differentiation among populations in the C. kiangsu of South and Southeast China. Our analyses indicate that C. kiangsu is a monophyletic group. Our results also support the hypothesis that the C. kiangsu population is in a primary differentiation stage. Given the mismatch distribution, it is likely that a population expansion in C. kiangsu occurred about 0.242 Ma during the Quaternary interglaciation. Based on historical reports, we conjecture that human activities had significant impacts on the C. kiangsu gene flow. PMID:24603526

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heerman, Lisa; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems.

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

PubMed Central

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems. PMID:28650963

Demographic variation across successional stages and their effects on the population dynamics of the neotropical palm Euterpe precatoria.

PubMed

Otárola, Mauricio Fernández; Avalos, Gerardo

2014-06-01

• Premise of the study: Environmental heterogeneity is a strong selective force shaping adaptation and population dynamics across temporal and spatial scales. Natural and anthropogenic gradients influence the variation of environmental and biotic factors, which determine population demography and dynamics. Successional gradients are expected to influence demographic parameters, but the relationship between these gradients and the species life history, habitat requirements, and degree of variation in demographic traits remains elusive.• Methods: We used the palm Euterpe precatoria to test the effect of successional stage on plant demography within a continuous population. We calculated demographic parameters for size stages and performed matrix analyses to investigate the demographic variation within primary and secondary forests of La Selva, Costa Rica.• Key results: We observed differences in mortality and recruitment of small juveniles between primary and secondary forests. Matrix models described satisfactorily the chronosequence of population changes, which were characterized by high population growth rate in disturbed areas, and decreased growth rate in old successional forests until reaching stability.• Conclusions: Different demographic parameters can be expressed in contiguous subpopulations along a gradient of successional stages with important consequences for population dynamics. Demographic variation superimposed on these gradients contributes to generate subpopulations with different demographic composition, density, and ecological properties. Therefore, the effects of spatial variation must be reconsidered in the design of demographic analyses of tropical palms, which are prime examples of subtle local adaptation. These considerations are crucial in the implementation of management plans for palm species within spatially complex and heterogeneous tropical landscapes. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Loci associated with resistance to stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici) in a core collection of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum).

PubMed

Muleta, Kebede T; Bulli, Peter; Rynearson, Sheri; Chen, Xianming; Pumphrey, Michael

2017-01-01

Stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis Westend. f. sp. tritici Erikss. (Pst) remains one of the most significant diseases of wheat worldwide. We investigated stripe rust resistance by genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) in 959 spring wheat accessions from the United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service National Small Grains Collection, representing major global production environments. The panel was characterized for field resistance in multi-environment field trials and seedling resistance under greenhouse conditions. A genome-wide set of 5,619 informative SNP markers were used to examine the population structure, linkage disequilibrium and marker-trait associations in the germplasm panel. Based on model-based analysis of population structure and hierarchical Ward clustering algorithm, the accessions were clustered into two major subgroups. These subgroups were largely separated according to geographic origin and improvement status of the accessions. A significant correlation was observed between the population sub-clusters and response to stripe rust infection. We identified 11 and 7 genomic regions with significant associations with stripe rust resistance at adult plant and seedling stages, respectively, based on a false discovery rate multiple correction method. The regions harboring all, except three, of the QTL identified from the field and greenhouse studies overlap with positions of previously reported QTL. Further work should aim at validating the identified QTL using proper germplasm and populations to enhance their utility in marker assisted breeding.

Loci associated with resistance to stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici) in a core collection of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum)

PubMed Central

Bulli, Peter; Rynearson, Sheri; Chen, Xianming; Pumphrey, Michael

2017-01-01

Stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis Westend. f. sp. tritici Erikss. (Pst) remains one of the most significant diseases of wheat worldwide. We investigated stripe rust resistance by genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) in 959 spring wheat accessions from the United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service National Small Grains Collection, representing major global production environments. The panel was characterized for field resistance in multi-environment field trials and seedling resistance under greenhouse conditions. A genome-wide set of 5,619 informative SNP markers were used to examine the population structure, linkage disequilibrium and marker-trait associations in the germplasm panel. Based on model-based analysis of population structure and hierarchical Ward clustering algorithm, the accessions were clustered into two major subgroups. These subgroups were largely separated according to geographic origin and improvement status of the accessions. A significant correlation was observed between the population sub-clusters and response to stripe rust infection. We identified 11 and 7 genomic regions with significant associations with stripe rust resistance at adult plant and seedling stages, respectively, based on a false discovery rate multiple correction method. The regions harboring all, except three, of the QTL identified from the field and greenhouse studies overlap with positions of previously reported QTL. Further work should aim at validating the identified QTL using proper germplasm and populations to enhance their utility in marker assisted breeding. PMID:28591221

A methodological framework to support the initiation, design and institutionalization of participatory modeling processes in water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbe, Johannes; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia; Adamowski, Jan

2018-01-01

Multiple barriers constrain the widespread application of participatory methods in water management, including the more technical focus of most water agencies, additional cost and time requirements for stakeholder involvement, as well as institutional structures that impede collaborative management. This paper presents a stepwise methodological framework that addresses the challenges of context-sensitive initiation, design and institutionalization of participatory modeling processes. The methodological framework consists of five successive stages: (1) problem framing and stakeholder analysis, (2) process design, (3) individual modeling, (4) group model building, and (5) institutionalized participatory modeling. The Management and Transition Framework is used for problem diagnosis (Stage One), context-sensitive process design (Stage Two) and analysis of requirements for the institutionalization of participatory water management (Stage Five). Conceptual modeling is used to initiate participatory modeling processes (Stage Three) and ensure a high compatibility with quantitative modeling approaches (Stage Four). This paper describes the proposed participatory model building (PMB) framework and provides a case study of its application in Québec, Canada. The results of the Québec study demonstrate the applicability of the PMB framework for initiating and designing participatory model building processes and analyzing barriers towards institutionalization.

Social marketing, stages of change, and public health smoking interventions.

PubMed

Diehr, Paula; Hannon, Peggy; Pizacani, Barbara; Forehand, Mark; Meischke, Hendrika; Curry, Susan; Martin, Diane P; Weaver, Marcia R; Harris, Jeffrey

2011-04-01

As a "thought experiment," the authors used a modified stages of change model for smoking to define homogeneous segments within various hypothetical populations. The authors then estimated the population effect of public health interventions that targeted the different segments. Under most assumptions, interventions that emphasized primary and secondary prevention, by targeting the Never Smoker, Maintenance, or Action segments, resulted in the highest nonsmoking life expectancy. This result is consistent with both social marketing and public health principles. Although the best thing for an individual smoker is to stop smoking, the greatest public health benefit is achieved by interventions that target nonsmokers.

Degree Day Requirements for Kudzu Bug (Hemiptera: Plataspidae), a Pest of Soybeans.

PubMed

Grant, Jessica I; Lamp, William O

2018-04-02

Understanding the phenology of a new potential pest is fundamental for the development of a management program. Megacopta cribraria Fabricius (Hemiptera: Plataspidae), kudzu bug, is a pest of soybeans first detected in the United States in 2009 and in Maryland in 2013. We observed the phenology of kudzu bug life stages in Maryland, created a Celsius degree-day (CDD) model for development, and characterized the difference between microhabitat and ambient temperatures of both kudzu, Pueraria montana (Lour.) Merr. (Fabales: Fabaceae) and soybeans, Glycine max (L.) Merrill (Fabales: Fabaceae). In 2014, low population numbers yielded limited resolution from field phenology observations. We observed kudzu bug populations persisting within Maryland; but between 2013 and 2016, populations were low compared to populations in the southeastern United States. Based on the degree-day model, kudzu bug eggs require 80 CDD at a minimum temperature of 14°C to hatch. Nymphs require 545 CDD with a minimum temperature of 16°C for development. The CDD model matches field observations when factoring a biofix date of April 1 and a minimum preoviposition period of 17 d. The model suggests two full generations per year in Maryland. Standard air temperature monitors do not affect model predictions for pest management, as microhabitat temperature differences did not show a clear trend between kudzu and soybeans. Ultimately, producers can predict the timing of kudzu bug life stages with the CDD model for the use of timing management plans in soybean fields.

75 FR 74073 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-30

... population program HexSim. Though still at preliminary draft stage, population response simulations from this portion of the modeling process are available for public review by request from our office. These simulations do not estimate what will occur in the future, but provide comparative information on potential...

Reasons for quitting: intrinsic and extrinsic motivation for smoking cessation in a population-based sample of smokers.

PubMed

Curry, S J; Grothaus, L; McBride, C

1997-01-01

An intrinsic-extrinsic model of motivation for smoking cessation is extended to a population-based sample of smokers (N = 1,137), using a previously validated Reasons for Quitting (RFQ) scale. Psychometric evaluation of the RFQ replicated the model that includes health concerns and self-control as intrinsic motivation dimensions and immediate reinforcement and social influence as extrinsic motivation dimensions. Compared to volunteers, the population-based sample of smokers reported equivalent health concerns, lower self-control, and higher social influence motivation for cessation. Within the population-based sample, women compared to men were less motivated to quit by health concerns and more motivated by immediate reinforcement; smokers above age 55 expressed lower health concerns and higher self-control motivation than smokers below age 55. Higher baseline levels of intrinsic relative to extrinsic motivation were associated with more advanced stages of readiness to quit smoking and successful smoking cessation at a 12-month follow-up. Among continuing smokers, improvement in stage of readiness to quit over time was associated with significant increases in health concerns and self-control motivation.

Hierarchical kernel mixture models for the prediction of AIDS disease progression using HIV structural gp120 profiles

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Changes to the glycosylation profile on HIV gp120 can influence viral pathogenesis and alter AIDS disease progression. The characterization of glycosylation differences at the sequence level is inadequate as the placement of carbohydrates is structurally complex. However, no structural framework is available to date for the study of HIV disease progression. In this study, we propose a novel machine-learning based framework for the prediction of AIDS disease progression in three stages (RP, SP, and LTNP) using the HIV structural gp120 profile. This new intelligent framework proves to be accurate and provides an important benchmark for predicting AIDS disease progression computationally. The model is trained using a novel HIV gp120 glycosylation structural profile to detect possible stages of AIDS disease progression for the target sequences of HIV+ individuals. The performance of the proposed model was compared to seven existing different machine-learning models on newly proposed gp120-Benchmark_1 dataset in terms of error-rate (MSE), accuracy (CCI), stability (STD), and complexity (TBM). The novel framework showed better predictive performance with 67.82% CCI, 30.21 MSE, 0.8 STD, and 2.62 TBM on the three stages of AIDS disease progression of 50 HIV+ individuals. This framework is an invaluable bioinformatics tool that will be useful to the clinical assessment of viral pathogenesis. PMID:21143806

Community structure of methanogenic archaea and methane production associated with compost-treated tropical rice-field soil.

PubMed

Singh, Alpana; Singh, Ram S; Upadhyay, Siddh N; Joshi, Chaitanya G; Tripathi, Ajay K; Dubey, Suresh K

2012-10-01

The diversity and density of methanogenic archaea and methane production were investigated ex situ at different growth stages of rice plant cultivated in compost-treated tropical rice fields. The qPCR analysis revealed variation in methanogens population from 3.40 × 10(6) to 1.11 × 10(7)  copies g(-1)  dws, in the year 2009 and 4.37 × 10(6) to 1.36 × 10(7)  copies g(-1)  dws in the year 2010. Apart from methanogens, a large number of bacterial (9.60 × 10(9) -1.44 × 10(10)  copies g(-1)  dws) and archaeal (7.13 × 10(7) -3.02 × 10(8)  copies g(-1)  dws) communities were also associated with methanogenesis. Methanogen population size varied in the order: flowering > ripening > tillering > postharvest > preplantation stage. The RFLP-based 16S rRNA gene-targeted phylogenetic analysis showed that clones were closely related to diverse group of methanogens comprising members of Methanomicrobiaceae, Methanosarcinaceae, Methanosaetaceae and RC I. Laboratory incubation studies revealed higher amount of cumulative CH(4) at the flowering stage. The integration of methanogenic community structure and CH(4) production potential of soil resulted in a better understanding of the dynamics of CH(4) production in organically treated rice-field soil. The hypothesis that the stages of plant development influence the methanogenic community structure leading to temporal variation in the CH(4) production has been successfully tested. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved scaling laws for stage inert mass of space propulsion systems. Volume 2: System modeling and weight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

Technical models and analytical approaches used to develop the weight data for vehicle system concepts using advanced technology are reported. Weight data are supplied for the following major system elements: engine, pressurization, propellant containers, structural shells and secondary structure, and environmental protection shields for the meteoroid and thermal design requirements. Scaling laws, improved and a simplified set, are developed from the system weight data. The laws consider the implications of the major design parameters and mission requirements on the stage inert mass.

A stage structure pest management model with impulsive state feedback control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Guoping; Chen, Lansun; Xu, Weijian; Fu, Gang

2015-06-01

A stage structure pest management model with impulsive state feedback control is investigated. We get the sufficient condition for the existence of the order-1 periodic solution by differential equation geometry theory and successor function. Further, we obtain a new judgement method for the stability of the order-1 periodic solution of the semi-continuous systems by referencing the stability analysis for limit cycles of continuous systems, which is different from the previous method of analog of Poincarè criterion. Finally, we analyze numerically the theoretical results obtained.

A Cross-Cultural Validation of Stage Development: A Rasch Re-Analysis of Longitudinal Socio-Moral Reasoning Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boom, Jan; Wouters, Hans; Keller, Monika

2007-01-01

Kohlberg's characterization of moral development as displaying an invariant hierarchical order of structurally consistent stages is losing ground. However, by applying Rasch analysis, Dawson recently gave new interpretation and support to his characterization of stage development. Using Rasch models, we replicated and strengthened her findings in…

Spatial requirements of different life-stages of the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) from a distinct population segment in the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamont, Margaret M.; Putman, Nathan F.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Hart, Kristen M.

2015-01-01

Many marine species have complex life histories that involve disparate developmental, foraging and reproductive habitats and a holistic assessment of the spatial requirements for different life stages is a challenge that greatly complicates their management. Here, we combined data from oceanographic modeling, nesting surveys, and satellite tracking to examine the spatial requirements of different life stages of Loggerhead Turtles (Caretta caretta) from a distinct population segment in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our findings indicate that after emerging from nesting beaches in Alabama and Northwest Florida, hatchlings disperse widely and the proportion of turtles following a given route varies substantially through time, with the majority (mean of 74.4%) projected to leave the Gulf of Mexico. Adult females use neritic habitat throughout the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico both during the inter-nesting phase and as post-nesting foraging areas. Movements and habitat use of juveniles and adult males represent a large gap in our knowledge, but given the hatchling dispersal predictions and tracks of post-nesting females it is likely that some Loggerhead Turtles remain in the Gulf of Mexico throughout their life. More than two-thirds of the Gulf provides potential habitat for at least one life-stage of Loggerhead Turtles. These results demonstrate the importance of the Gulf of Mexico to this Distinct Population Segment of Loggerhead Turtles. It also highlights the benefits of undertaking comprehensive studies of multiple life stages simultaneously: loss of individual habitats have the potential to affect several life stages thereby having long-term consequences to population recovery.

Behavioral and Physiological Changes during Benthic-Pelagic Transition in the Harmful Alga, Heterosigma akashiwo: Potential for Rapid Bloom Formation

PubMed Central

Tobin, Elizabeth D.; Grünbaum, Daniel; Patterson, Johnathan; Cattolico, Rose Ann

2013-01-01

Many species of harmful algae transition between a motile, vegetative stage in the water column and a non-motile, resting stage in the sediments. Physiological and behavioral traits expressed during benthic-pelagic transition potentially regulate the timing, location and persistence of blooms. The roles of key physiological and behavioral traits involved in resting cell emergence and bloom formation were examined in two geographically distinct strains of the harmful alga, Heterosigma akashiwo. Physiological measures of cell viability, division and population growth, and cell fatty acid content were made using flow cytometry and gas chromatography – mass spectrometry techniques as cells transitioned between the benthic resting stage and the vegetative pelagic stage. Video-based tracking was used to quantify cell-level swimming behaviors. Data show increased temperature and light triggered rapid emergence from the resting stage and initiated cell swimming. Algal strains varied in important physiological and behavioral traits, including survivorship during life-stage transitions, population growth rates and swimming velocities. Collectively, these traits function as “population growth strategies” that can influence bloom formation. Many resting cells regained the up-swimming capacity necessary to cross an environmentally relevant halocline and the ability to aggregate in near-surface waters within hours after vegetative growth supporting conditions were restored. Using a heuristic model, we illustrate how strain-specific population growth strategies can govern the timescales over which H. akashiwo blooms form. Our findings highlight the need for identification and quantification of strain-specific physiological and behavioral traits to improve mechanistic understanding of bloom formation and successful bloom prediction. PMID:24124586

Predicting cognitive function of the Malaysian elderly: a structural equation modelling approach.

PubMed

Foong, Hui Foh; Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Ibrahim, Rahimah; Haron, Sharifah Azizah; Shahar, Suzana

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of elderly's cognitive function based on biopsychosocial and cognitive reserve perspectives. The study included 2322 community-dwelling elderly in Malaysia, randomly selected through a multi-stage proportional cluster random sampling from Peninsular Malaysia. The elderly were surveyed on socio-demographic information, biomarkers, psychosocial status, disability, and cognitive function. A biopsychosocial model of cognitive function was developed to test variables' predictive power on cognitive function. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (version 15.0) in conjunction with Analysis of Moment Structures Graphics (AMOS 7.0). The estimated theoretical model fitted the data well. Psychosocial stress and metabolic syndrome (MetS) negatively predicted cognitive function and psychosocial stress appeared as a main predictor. Socio-demographic characteristics, except gender, also had significant effects on cognitive function. However, disability failed to predict cognitive function. Several factors together may predict cognitive function in the Malaysian elderly population, and the variance accounted for it is large enough to be considered substantial. Key factor associated with the elderly's cognitive function seems to be psychosocial well-being. Thus, psychosocial well-being should be included in the elderly assessment, apart from medical conditions, both in clinical and community setting.

Early fear memory defects are associated with altered synaptic plasticity and molecular architecture in the TgCRND8 Alzheimer's disease mouse model.

PubMed

Steele, John W; Brautigam, Hannah; Short, Jennifer A; Sowa, Allison; Shi, Mengxi; Yadav, Aniruddha; Weaver, Christina M; Westaway, David; Fraser, Paul E; St George-Hyslop, Peter H; Gandy, Sam; Hof, Patrick R; Dickstein, Dara L

2014-07-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex and slowly progressing dementing disorder that results in neuronal and synaptic loss, deposition in brain of aberrantly folded proteins, and impairment of spatial and episodic memory. Most studies of mouse models of AD have employed analyses of cognitive status and assessment of amyloid burden, gliosis, and molecular pathology during disease progression. Here we sought to understand the behavioral, cellular, ultrastructural, and molecular changes that occur at a pathological stage equivalent to the early stages of human AD. We studied the TgCRND8 mouse, a model of aggressive AD amyloidosis, at an early stage of plaque pathology (3 months of age) in comparison to their wildtype littermates and assessed changes in cognition, neuron and spine structure, and expression of synaptic glutamate receptor proteins. We found that, at this age, TgCRND8 mice display substantial plaque deposition in the neocortex and hippocampus and impairment on cued and contextual memory tasks. Of particular interest, we also observed a significant decrease in the number of neurons in the hippocampus. Furthermore, analysis of CA1 neurons revealed significant changes in apical and basal dendritic spine types, as well as altered expression of GluN1 and GluA2 receptors. This change in molecular architecture within the hippocampus may reflect a rising representation of inherently less stable thin spine populations, which can cause cognitive decline. These changes, taken together with toxic insults from amyloid-β protein, may underlie the observed neuronal loss. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modelling spatial distribution of Patagonian toothfish through life-stages and sex and its implications for the fishery on the Kerguelen Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Péron, Clara; Welsford, Dirk C.; Ziegler, Philippe; Lamb, Timothy D.; Gasco, Nicolas; Chazeau, Charlotte; Sinègre, Romain; Duhamel, Guy

2016-02-01

Size and sex specific habitat preferences are common in animal populations and can have important implications for sound spatial management of harvested species. Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) is a commercially exploited fish species characterised by its longevity (>50 yo) and its extremely broad distribution in depths ranging from 10 m to 2500 m on most of the Plateaux, banks and seamounts of the Southern Ocean. As many bentho-pelagic fish species, Patagonian toothfish exhibits sexual dimorphism and ontogenetic habitat shift towards deeper waters as they grow. In this study, we modelled the spatial structure of Patagonian toothfish population (median total length and sex composition) in a data-rich area, the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Indian Ocean), to better understand the ecological drivers of their distributional patterns and inform current and future fishery management strategies. We applied spatially-explicit statistical models to quantify and predict the effects of the complex topography of the Kerguelen Plateau in structuring the spatial distribution of Patagonian toothfish total length and sex ratio, while controlling for gear selectivity and season. Model predictions showed that juvenile toothfish live in shallow regions (shelf and banks) and move downward progressively up to 600 m while they grow. Between 600 m and 1200 m, the downward movement stops and fish settle at their preferred depths. While in this depth range, fish are ∼75 cm long and most vulnerable to fisheries. As they approach maturity large fish move downward to deep-sea habitats (from 1200 m to >2300 m) and head towards the spawning grounds on the western side of the plateau and around Skiff Bank. Importantly, the sex ratio was not evenly distributed across the Plateau; prediction maps revealed a higher proportion of females in the South whereas a strong male-bias sex ratio (70%) occurred in the North-West. Large-scale prediction maps derived from our models assisted in developing hypotheses regarding ecological drivers of Patagonian toothfish habitat-use and movement across different life stages and sex. Such hypotheses are crucial to inform management strategies of this multijurisdictional fishery (France and Australia) at the spatial and temporal scales over which natural processes and fishery extend.

Identifying populations sensitive to environmental chemicals by simulating toxicokinetic variability.

PubMed

Ring, Caroline L; Pearce, Robert G; Setzer, R Woodrow; Wetmore, Barbara A; Wambaugh, John F

2017-09-01

The thousands of chemicals present in the environment (USGAO, 2013) must be triaged to identify priority chemicals for human health risk research. Most chemicals have little of the toxicokinetic (TK) data that are necessary for relating exposures to tissue concentrations that are believed to be toxic. Ongoing efforts have collected limited, in vitro TK data for a few hundred chemicals. These data have been combined with biomonitoring data to estimate an approximate margin between potential hazard and exposure. The most "at risk" 95th percentile of adults have been identified from simulated populations that are generated either using standard "average" adult human parameters or very specific cohorts such as Northern Europeans. To better reflect the modern U.S. population, we developed a population simulation using physiologies based on distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities from the most recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. This allowed incorporation of inter-individual variability, including variability across relevant demographic subgroups. Variability was analyzed with a Monte Carlo approach that accounted for the correlation structure in physiological parameters. To identify portions of the U.S. population that are more at risk for specific chemicals, physiologic variability was incorporated within an open-source high-throughput (HT) TK modeling framework. We prioritized 50 chemicals based on estimates of both potential hazard and exposure. Potential hazard was estimated from in vitro HT screening assays (i.e., the Tox21 and ToxCast programs). Bioactive in vitro concentrations were extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse dosimetry approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with: 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with physiological parameters for a virtual population. For risk-based prioritization of chemicals, predicted bioactive equivalent doses were compared to demographic-specific inferences of exposure rates that were based on NHANES urinary analyte biomonitoring data. The inclusion of NHANES-derived inter-individual variability decreased predicted bioactive equivalent doses by 12% on average for the total population when compared to previous methods. However, for some combinations of chemical and demographic groups the margin was reduced by as much as three quarters. This TK modeling framework allows targeted risk prioritization of chemicals for demographic groups of interest, including potentially sensitive life stages and subpopulations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Juvenile honest food solicitation and parental investment as a life history strategy: A kin demographic selection model.

PubMed

Garay, József; Csiszár, Villő; Móri, Tamás F; Szilágyi, András; Varga, Zoltán; Számadó, Szabolcs

2018-01-01

Parent-offspring communication remains an unresolved challenge for biologist. The difficulty of the challenge comes from the fact that it is a multifaceted problem with connections to life-history evolution, parent-offspring conflict, kin selection and signalling. Previous efforts mainly focused on modelling resource allocation at the expense of the dynamic interaction during a reproductive season. Here we present a two-stage model of begging where the first stage models the interaction between nestlings and parents within a nest and the second stage models the life-history trade-offs. We show in an asexual population that honest begging results in decreased variance of collected food between siblings, which leads to mean number of surviving offspring. Thus, honest begging can be seen as a special bet-hedging against informational uncertainty, which not just decreases the variance of fitness but also increases the arithmetic mean.

Juvenile honest food solicitation and parental investment as a life history strategy: A kin demographic selection model

PubMed Central

Szilágyi, András; Varga, Zoltán

2018-01-01

Parent-offspring communication remains an unresolved challenge for biologist. The difficulty of the challenge comes from the fact that it is a multifaceted problem with connections to life-history evolution, parent-offspring conflict, kin selection and signalling. Previous efforts mainly focused on modelling resource allocation at the expense of the dynamic interaction during a reproductive season. Here we present a two-stage model of begging where the first stage models the interaction between nestlings and parents within a nest and the second stage models the life-history trade-offs. We show in an asexual population that honest begging results in decreased variance of collected food between siblings, which leads to mean number of surviving offspring. Thus, honest begging can be seen as a special bet-hedging against informational uncertainty, which not just decreases the variance of fitness but also increases the arithmetic mean. PMID:29494630

Population pharmacokinetics and dosing regimen design of milrinone in preterm infants

PubMed Central

Paradisis, Mary; Jiang, Xuemin; McLachlan, Andrew J; Evans, Nick; Kluckow, Martin; Osborn, David

2007-01-01

Aims To define the pharmacokinetics of milrinone in very preterm infants and determine an optimal dose regimen to prevent low systemic blood flow in the first 12 h after birth. Methods A prospective open‐labelled, dose‐escalation pharmacokinetic study was undertaken in two stages. In stage one, infants received milrinone at 0.25 μg/kg/min (n = 8) and 0.5 μg/kg/min (n = 11) infused from 3 to 24 h of age. Infants contributed 4–5 blood samples for concentration–time data which were analysed using a population modelling approach. A simulation study was used to explore the optimal dosing regimen to achieve target milrinone concentrations (180–300 ng/ml). This milrinone regimen was evaluated in stage two (n = 10). Results Infants (n = 29) born before 29 weeks gestation were enrolled. Milrinone pharmacokinetics were described using a one‐compartment model with first‐order elimination rate, with a population mean clearance (CV%) of 35 ml/h (24%) and volume of distribution of 512 ml (21%) and estimated half‐life of 10 h. The 0.25 and 0.5 μg/kg/min dosage regimens did not achieve optimal milrinone concentration‐time profiles to prevent early low systemic blood flow. Simulation studies predicted a loading infusion (0.75 μg/kg/min for 3 h) followed by maintenance infusion (0.2 μg/kg/min until 18 h of age) would provide an optimal milrinone concentration profile. This was confirmed in stage two of the study. Conclusion Population pharmacokinetic modelling in the preterm infant has established an optimal dose regimen for milrinone that increases the likelihood of achieving therapeutic aims and highlights the importance of pharmacokinetic studies in neonatal clinical pharmacology. PMID:16690639

Design of a Two-stage High-capacity Stirling Cryocooler Operating below 30K

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaotao; Dai, Wei; Zhu, Jian; Chen, Shuai; Li, Haibing; Luo, Ercang

The high capacity cryocooler working below 30K can find many applications such as superconducting motors, superconducting cables and cryopump. Compared to the GM cryocooler, the Stirling cryocooler can achieve higher efficiency and more compact structure. Because of these obvious advantages, we have designed a two stage free piston Stirling cryocooler system, which is driven by a moving magnet linear compressor with an operating frequency of 40 Hz and a maximum 5 kW input electric power. The first stage of the cryocooler is designed to operate in the liquid nitrogen temperature and output a cooling power of 100 W. And the second stage is expected to simultaneously provide a cooling power of 50 W below the temperature of 30 K. In order to achieve the best system efficiency, a numerical model based on the thermoacoustic model was developed to optimize the system operating and structure parameters.

Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir.

PubMed

Endo, Noriko; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2018-01-25

Wind conditions, as well as other environmental conditions, are likely to influence malaria transmission through the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes, especially around water-resource reservoirs. Wind-induced waves in a reservoir impose mortality on aquatic-stage mosquitoes. Mosquitoes' host-seeking activity is also influenced by wind through dispersion of [Formula: see text]. However, no malaria transmission model exists to date that simulated those impacts of wind mechanistically. A modelling framework for simulating the three important effects of wind on the behaviours of mosquito is developed: attraction of adult mosquitoes through dispersion of [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] attraction), advection of adult mosquitoes (advection), and aquatic-stage mortality due to wind-induced surface waves (waves). The framework was incorporated in a mechanistic malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS. The performance of the extended simulator was compared with the observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes at a village adjacent to the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia. The observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes were reproduced with some reasonable accuracy in HYDREMATS that includes the representation of the wind effects. HYDREMATS without the wind model failed to do so. Offshore wind explained the increase in Anopheles population that cannot be expected from other environmental conditions alone. Around large water bodies such as reservoirs, the role of wind in the dynamics of Anopheles population, hence in malaria transmission, can be significant. Modelling the impacts of wind on the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes aids in reproducing the seasonality of malaria transmission and in estimation of the risk of malaria around reservoirs.

Size matters: insights from an allometric approach to evaluate control methods for invasive Australian Rhinella marina.

PubMed

Beaty, Lynne E; Salice, Christopher J

2013-10-01

Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15-25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in approximately 80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

The Development of Ciprofloxacin Resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa Involves Multiple Response Stages and Multiple Proteins ▿ † ‡

PubMed Central

Su, Hsun-Cheng; Ramkissoon, Kevin; Doolittle, Janet; Clark, Martha; Khatun, Jainab; Secrest, Ashley; Wolfgang, Matthew C.; Giddings, Morgan C.

2010-01-01

Microbes have developed resistance to nearly every antibiotic, yet the steps leading to drug resistance remain unclear. Here we report a multistage process by which Pseudomonas aeruginosa acquires drug resistance following exposure to ciprofloxacin at levels ranging from 0.5× to 8× the initial MIC. In stage I, susceptible cells are killed en masse by the exposure. In stage II, a small, slow to nongrowing population survives antibiotic exposure that does not exhibit significantly increased resistance according to the MIC measure. In stage III, exhibited at 0.5× to 4× the MIC, a growing population emerges to reconstitute the population, and these cells display heritable increases in drug resistance of up to 50 times the original level. We studied the stage III cells by proteomic methods to uncover differences in the regulatory pathways that are involved in this phenotype, revealing upregulation of phosphorylation on two proteins, succinate-semialdehyde dehydrogenase (SSADH) and methylmalonate-semialdehyde dehydrogenase (MMSADH), and also revealing upregulation of a highly conserved protein of unknown function. Transposon disruption in the encoding genes for each of these targets substantially dampened the ability of cells to develop the stage III phenotype. Considering these results in combination with computational models of resistance and genomic sequencing results, we postulate that stage III heritable resistance develops from a combination of both genomic mutations and modulation of one or more preexisting cellular pathways. PMID:20696867

Computational Model of Population Dynamics Based on the Cell Cycle and Local Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oprisan, Sorinel Adrian; Oprisan, Ana

2005-03-01

Our study bridges cellular (mesoscopic) level interactions and global population (macroscopic) dynamics of carcinoma. The morphological differences and transitions between well and smooth defined benign tumors and tentacular malignat tumors suggest a theoretical analysis of tumor invasion based on the development of mathematical models exhibiting bifurcations of spatial patterns in the density of tumor cells. Our computational model views the most representative and clinically relevant features of oncogenesis as a fight between two distinct sub-systems: the immune system of the host and the neoplastic system. We implemented the neoplastic sub-system using a three-stage cell cycle: active, dormant, and necrosis. The second considered sub-system consists of cytotoxic active (effector) cells — EC, with a very broad phenotype ranging from NK cells to CTL cells, macrophages, etc. Based on extensive numerical simulations, we correlated the fractal dimensions for carcinoma, which could be obtained from tumor imaging, with the malignat stage. Our computational model was able to also simulate the effects of surgical, chemotherapeutical, and radiotherapeutical treatments.

The protection motivation theory within the stages of the transtheoretical model - stage-specific interplay of variables and prediction of exercise stage transitions.

PubMed

Lippke, Sonia; Plotnikoff, Ronald C

2009-05-01

Two different theories of health behaviour have been chosen with the aim of theory integration: a continuous theory (protection motivation theory, PMT) and a stage model (transtheoretical model, TTM). This is the first study to test whether the stages of the TTM moderate the interrelation of PMT-variables and the mediation of motivation, as well as PMT-variables' interactions in predicting stage transitions. Hypotheses were tested regarding (1) mean patterns, stage pair-comparisons and nonlinear trends using ANOVAs; (2) prediction-patterns for the different stage groups employing multi-group structural equation modelling (MSEM) and nested model analyses; and (3) stage transitions using binary logistic regression analyses. Adults (N=1,602) were assessed over a 6 month period on their physical activity stages, PMT-variables and subsequent behaviour. (1) Particular mean differences and nonlinear trends in all test variables were found. (2) The PMT adequately fitted the five stage groups. The MSEM revealed that covariances within threat appraisal and coping appraisal were invariant and all other constrains were stage-specific, i.e. stage was a moderator. Except for self-efficacy, motivation fully mediated the relationship between the social-cognitive variables and behaviour. (3) Predicting stage transitions with the PMT-variables underscored the importance of self-efficacy. Only when threat appraisal and coping appraisal were high, stage movement was more likely in the preparation stage. Results emphasize stage-specific differences of the PMT mechanisms, and hence, support the stage construct. The findings may guide further theory building and research integrating different theoretical approaches.

Molecular markers for genetic diversity, gene flow and genetic population structure of freshwater mussel species.

PubMed

Choupina, A B; Martins, I M

2014-08-01

Freshwater mussel species are in global decline. Anthropogenic changes of river channels and the decrease of autochthonous fish population, the natural hosts of mussels larval stages (glochidia), are the main causes. Therefore, the conservation of mussel species depends not only on habitat conservation, but also on the availability of the fish host. In Portugal, information concerning most of the mussel species is remarkably scarce. One of the most known species, Unio pictorum is also in decline however, in the basins of the rivers Tua and Sabor (Northeast of Portugal), there is some indication of relatively large populations. The aforementioned rivers can be extremely important for this species conservation not only in Portugal, but also in the remaining Iberian Peninsula. Thus, it is important to obtain data concerning Unio pictorum bioecology (distribution, habitat requirements, population structure, genetic variability, reproductive cycle and recruitment rates), as well as the genetic variability and structure of the population. Concomitantly, information concerning fish population structure, the importance of the different fish species as "glochidia" hosts and their appropriate density to allow effective mussel recruitment, will also be assessed. The achieved data is crucial to obtain information to develop effective management measures in order to promote the conservation of this bivalve species, the conservation of autochthonous fish populations, and consequently the integrity of the river habitats.

Geographical distance and local environmental conditions drive the genetic population structure of a freshwater microalga (Bathycoccaceae; Chlorophyta) in Patagonian lakes.

PubMed

Fernández, Leonardo D; Hernández, Cristián E; Schiaffino, M Romina; Izaguirre, Irina; Lara, Enrique

2017-10-01

The patterns and mechanisms underlying the genetic structure of microbial populations remain unresolved. Herein we investigated the role played by two non-mutually exclusive models (i.e. isolation by distance and isolation by environment) in shaping the genetic structure of lacustrine populations of a microalga (a freshwater Bathycoccaceae) in the Argentinean Patagonia. To our knowledge, this was the first study to investigate the genetic population structure in a South American microorganism. Population-level analyses based on ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 sequences revealed high levels of nucleotide and haplotype diversity within and among populations. Fixation index and a spatially explicit Bayesian analysis confirmed the occurrence of genetically distinct microalga populations in Patagonia. Isolation by distance and isolation by environment accounted for 38.5% and 17.7% of the genetic structure observed, respectively, whereas together these models accounted for 41% of the genetic differentiation. While our results highlighted isolation by distance and isolation by environment as important mechanisms in driving the genetic population structure of the microalga studied, none of these models (either alone or together) could explain the entire genetic differentiation observed. The unexplained variation in the genetic differentiation observed could be the result of founder events combined with rapid local adaptations, as proposed by the monopolisation hypothesis. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Structure, Function, and Applications of the Georgetown-Einstein (GE) Breast Cancer Simulation Model.

PubMed

Schechter, Clyde B; Near, Aimee M; Jayasekera, Jinani; Chandler, Young; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S

2018-04-01

The Georgetown University-Albert Einstein College of Medicine breast cancer simulation model (Model GE) has evolved over time in structure and function to reflect advances in knowledge about breast cancer, improvements in early detection and treatment technology, and progress in computing resources. This article describes the model and provides examples of model applications. The model is a discrete events microsimulation of single-life histories of women from multiple birth cohorts. Events are simulated in the absence of screening and treatment, and interventions are then applied to assess their impact on population breast cancer trends. The model accommodates differences in natural history associated with estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) biomarkers, as well as conventional breast cancer risk factors. The approach for simulating breast cancer natural history is phenomenological, relying on dates, stage, and age of clinical and screen detection for a tumor molecular subtype without explicitly modeling tumor growth. The inputs to the model are regularly updated to reflect current practice. Numerous technical modifications, including the use of object-oriented programming (C++), and more efficient algorithms, along with hardware advances, have increased program efficiency permitting simulations of large samples. The model results consistently match key temporal trends in US breast cancer incidence and mortality. The model has been used in collaboration with other CISNET models to assess cancer control policies and will be applied to evaluate clinical trial design, recurrence risk, and polygenic risk-based screening.

Smoking cessation: an application of theory of planned behavior to understanding progress through stages of change.

PubMed

Bledsoe, Linda K

2006-07-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate variables relevant to smoking cessation early in the process of change through an application of the Theory of Planned Behavior [Ajzen, I. (1985). From intentions to actions: A theory of planned behavior. In J. Kuhl and J. Beckman (Eds). Action-control: From cognition to behavior (pp.11-39). Heidelberg: Springer.] to the temporal structure provided by the Transtheoretical Model. Study 1 was a preliminary elicitation study (n=68) conducted to ground the concepts used in the model testing in Study 2 [Ajzen, I., Fishbein, M. (1980). Understanding attitudes and predicting social behavior, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.]. Study 2 tested the proposed model fit with data from a sample of 230 adult smokers. Structural equation modeling did not support the Theory of Planned Behavior as a model of motivation for progress through the stages of change and highlighted measurement issues with perceived behavioral control. A modified model using the Theory of Reasoned Action provided a good fit to the data, accounting for approximately 64% of the variance in intention to quit smoking and stage of change. This research addresses the need for a more complete theoretical rationale for progress through stages of change.

Structural differences in gut bacteria communities in developmental stages of natural populations of Lutzomyia evansi from Colombia's Caribbean coast.

PubMed

Vivero, Rafael José; Jaramillo, Natalia Gil; Cadavid-Restrepo, Gloria; Soto, Sandra I Uribe; Herrera, Claudia Ximena Moreno

2016-09-13

Lutzomyia evansi, a phlebotomine insect endemic to Colombia's Caribbean coast, is considered to be the main vector of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis in the region. Although insects of this species can harbor pathogenic and non-pathogenic microorganisms in their intestinal microbiota, there is little information available about the diversity of gut bacteria present in Lutzomyia evansi. In this study, conventional microbiological methods and molecular tools were used to assess the composition of bacterial communities associated with Lutzomyia evansi guts in immature and adult stages of natural populations from the department of Sucre (Caribbean coast of Colombia). Sand flies were collected from two locations (peri-urban and jungle biotype) in the Department of Sucre (Caribbean coast of Colombia). A total of 752 Lutzomyia evansi intestines were dissected. In this study, 125 bacterial strains were isolated from different culture media (LB Agar, MacConkey Agar). Different methods were used for bacterial identification, including ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (RISA) and analysis of the 16S rRNA and gyrB gene sequences. The genetic profiles of the bacterial populations were generated and temporal temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (TTGE) was used to compare them with total gut DNA. We also used PCR and DNA sequence analysis to determine the presence of Wolbachia endosymbiont bacteria and Leishmania parasites. The culture-dependent technique showed that the dominant intestinal bacteria isolated belong to Acinetobacter, Enterobacter, Pseudomonas, Ochrobactrum, Shinella and Paenibacillus in the larval stage; Lysobacter, Microbacterium, Streptomyces, Bacillus and Rummeliibacillus in the pupal stage; and Staphylococcus, Streptomyces, Brevibacterium, Acinetobacter, Enterobacter and Pantoea in the adult stage. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences between the fingerprint patterns of the PCR-TTGE bands in bacterial communities from immature and adult stages. Additionally, differences were found in bacterial community structure in fed females, unfed females, males and larvae. The intestinal bacteria detected by PCR-TTGE were Enterobacter cloacae and Bacillus thuringiensis, which were present in different life stages of Lu. evansi, and Burkholderia cenocepacia and Bacillus gibsonii, which were detected only in the larval stage. Wolbachia and Leishmania were not detected in gut samples of Lutzomyia evansi. The analyses conducted using microbiological and molecular approaches indicated significant variations in the bacterial communities associated with the gut of Lu. evansi, depending on the developmental stage and food source. We propose that these elements affect microbial diversity in L. evansi guts and may in turn influence pathogen transmission to humans bitten by this insect.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Spore Killers

PubMed Central

Nauta, M. J.; Hoekstra, R. F.

1993-01-01

Spore killing in ascomycetes is a special form of segregation distortion. When a strain with the Killer genotype is crossed to a Sensitive type, spore killing is expressed by asci with only half the number of ascospores as usual, all surviving ascospores being of the Killer type. Using population genetic modeling, this paper explores conditions for invasion of Spore killers and for polymorphism of Killers, Sensitives and Resistants (which neither kill, nor get killed), as found in natural populations. The models show that a population with only Killers and Sensitives can never be stable. The invasion of Killers and stable polymorphism only occur if Killers have some additional advantage during the process of spore killing. This may be due to the effects of local sib competition or some kind of ``heterozygous'' advantage in the stage of ascospore formation or in the short diploid stage of the life cycle. This form of segregation distortion appears to be essentially different from other, well-investigated forms, and more field data are needed for a better understanding of spore killing. PMID:8293989

Modeling Global Relationships Between Climate and Scyphozoan Jellyfish Blooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henschke, N.; Stock, C. A.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2016-02-01

Scyphozoan jellyfish have a complex lifecycle that involves alternation between a sexually reproducing medusa stage and a benthic, asexually reproducing polyp. Elevated jellyfish concentrations, or blooms, are a natural feature of healthy pelagic ecosystems, but it has been suggested that the frequency and magnitude of these blooms may increase globally as a result of anthropogenic changes such as overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. It has been difficult to substantiate this hypothesis, however, due to insufficient long-term datasets and limited life cycle data, particularly for the polyp stage. Polyp mortality is considered to be more important than medusa mortality for determining the biomass of the medusa population. We have developed a population model that incorporates both benthic and pelagic life history stages to better understand controls on jellyfish distributions their response to climate variability and change. The model tracks cohorts of both life stages with temperature and/or consumption driven relationships for growth, reproduction and mortality. The model was forced with a time-series of temperature and zooplankton biomass from three locations: Southampton Estuary, the Gulf of Mexico and the Black Sea and compared against co-located long-term ( 20 years) near monthly samples of jellyfish biomass. The model reproduces seasonal cycles and average medusa biomass at each location. Medusa biomass is positively correlated with increased temperature and food availability, and was more sensitive to changes in polyp mortality than medusa mortality - confirming the importance of the benthic polyp generation in regulating jellyfish bloom size. We are presently studying drivers of inter-annual variability at these sites before integration with global simulations.

Novel probabilistic models of spatial genetic ancestry with applications to stratification correction in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Bhaskar, Anand; Javanmard, Adel; Courtade, Thomas A; Tse, David

2017-03-15

Genetic variation in human populations is influenced by geographic ancestry due to spatial locality in historical mating and migration patterns. Spatial population structure in genetic datasets has been traditionally analyzed using either model-free algorithms, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling, or using explicit spatial probabilistic models of allele frequency evolution. We develop a general probabilistic model and an associated inference algorithm that unify the model-based and data-driven approaches to visualizing and inferring population structure. Our spatial inference algorithm can also be effectively applied to the problem of population stratification in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), where hidden population structure can create fictitious associations when population ancestry is correlated with both the genotype and the trait. Our algorithm Geographic Ancestry Positioning (GAP) relates local genetic distances between samples to their spatial distances, and can be used for visually discerning population structure as well as accurately inferring the spatial origin of individuals on a two-dimensional continuum. On both simulated and several real datasets from diverse human populations, GAP exhibits substantially lower error in reconstructing spatial ancestry coordinates compared to PCA. We also develop an association test that uses the ancestry coordinates inferred by GAP to accurately account for ancestry-induced correlations in GWAS. Based on simulations and analysis of a dataset of 10 metabolic traits measured in a Northern Finland cohort, which is known to exhibit significant population structure, we find that our method has superior power to current approaches. Our software is available at https://github.com/anand-bhaskar/gap . abhaskar@stanford.edu or ajavanma@usc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling.

PubMed

Masden, Elizabeth A; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D; Furness, Robert W; Haydon, Daniel T

2012-09-07

Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage.

Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada.

PubMed

Blanco-Pastor, J L; Fernández-Mazuecos, M; Vargas, P

2013-08-01

Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine-Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of the transtheoretical model: exercise behavior in Korean adults with metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Kim, Chun-Ja; Kim, Bom-Taeck; Chae, Sun-Mi

2010-01-01

Although regular exercise has been recommended to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with metabolic syndrome, little information is available about psychobehavioral strategies in this population. The purpose of this study was to identify the stages, processes of change, decisional balance, and self-efficacy of exercise behavior and to determine the significant predictors explaining regular exercise behavior in adults with metabolic syndrome. This descriptive, cross-sectional survey design enrolled a convenience sample of 210 people with metabolic syndrome at a university hospital in South Korea. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze demographic characteristics, metabolic syndrome risk factors, and transtheoretical model-related variables. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the most important predictors of regular exercise stages. Action and maintenance stages comprised 51.9% of regular exercise stages, whereas 48.1% of non-regular exercise stages were precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation stages. Adults with regular exercise stages displayed increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, were more likely to use consciousness raising, self-reevaluation, and self-liberation strategies, and were less likely to evaluate the merits/disadvantages of exercise, compared with those in non-regular exercise stages. In this study of regular exercise behavior and transtheoretical model-related variables, consciousness raising, self-reevaluation, and self-liberation were associated with a positive effect on regular exercise behavior in adults with metabolic syndrome. Our findings could be used to develop strategies and interventions to maintain regular exercise behavior directed at Korean adults with metabolic syndrome to reduce CVD risk. Further prospective intervention studies are needed to investigate the effect of regular exercise program on the prevention and/or reduction of CVD risk among this population. Health care providers, especially nurses, are optimally positioned to help their clients initiate and maintain regular exercise behavior in clinical and community settings.

Cost-effectiveness simulation and analysis of colorectal cancer screening in Hong Kong Chinese population: comparison amongst colonoscopy, guaiac and immunologic fecal occult blood testing.

PubMed

Wong, Carlos K H; Lam, Cindy L K; Wan, Y F; Fong, Daniel Y T

2015-10-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening strategies from the healthcare service provider perspective based on Chinese population. A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of recommended screening strategies including annual/biennial guaiac fecal occult blood testing (G-FOBT), annual/biennial immunologic FOBT (I-FOBT), and colonoscopy every 10 years in Chinese aged 50 year over a 25-year period. External validity of model was tested against data retrieved from published randomized controlled trials of G-FOBT. Recourse use data collected from Chinese subjects among staging of colorectal neoplasm were combined with published unit cost data ($USD in 2009 price values) to estimate a stage-specific cost per patient. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were quantified based on the stage duration and SF-6D preference-based value of each stage. The cost-effectiveness outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) represented by costs per life-years (LY) and costs per QALYs gained. In base-case scenario, the non-dominated strategies were annual and biennial I-FOBT. Compared with no screening, the ICER presented $20,542/LYs and $3155/QALYs gained for annual I-FOBT, and $19,838/LYs gained and $2976/QALYs gained for biennial I-FOBT. The optimal screening strategy was annual I-FOBT that attained the highest ICER at the threshold of $50,000 per LYs or QALYs gained. The Markov model informed the health policymakers that I-FOBT every year may be the most effective and cost-effective CRC screening strategy among recommended screening strategies, depending on the willingness-to-pay of mass screening for Chinese population. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02038283.

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES: INTEGRATE-HTA.

PubMed

Wahlster, Philip; Brereton, Louise; Burns, Jacob; Hofmann, Björn; Mozygemba, Kati; Oortwijn, Wija; Pfadenhauer, Lisa; Polus, Stephanie; Rehfuess, Eva; Schilling, Imke; van der Wilt, Gert Jan; Gerhardus, Ansgar

2017-01-01

Current health technology assessment (HTA) is not well equipped to assess complex technologies as insufficient attention is being paid to the diversity in patient characteristics and preferences, context, and implementation. Strategies to integrate these and several other aspects, such as ethical considerations, in a comprehensive assessment are missing. The aim of the European research project INTEGRATE-HTA was to develop a model for an integrated HTA of complex technologies. A multi-method, four-stage approach guided the development of the INTEGRATE-HTA Model: (i) definition of the different dimensions of information to be integrated, (ii) literature review of existing methods for integration, (iii) adjustment of concepts and methods for assessing distinct aspects of complex technologies in the frame of an integrated process, and (iv) application of the model in a case study and subsequent revisions. The INTEGRATE-HTA Model consists of five steps, each involving stakeholders: (i) definition of the technology and the objective of the HTA; (ii) development of a logic model to provide a structured overview of the technology and the system in which it is embedded; (iii) evidence assessment on effectiveness, economic, ethical, legal, and socio-cultural aspects, taking variability of participants, context, implementation issues, and their interactions into account; (iv) populating the logic model with the data generated in step 3; (v) structured process of decision-making. The INTEGRATE-HTA Model provides a structured process for integrated HTAs of complex technologies. Stakeholder involvement in all steps is essential as a means of ensuring relevance and meaningful interpretation of the evidence.

Inferential and forward projection modeling to evaluate options for controlling invasive mammals on islands.

PubMed

Anderson, D P; McMurtrie, P; Edge, K-A; Baxter, P W J; Byrom, A E

2016-12-01

Successful pest-mammal eradications from remote islands have resulted in important biodiversity benefits. Near-shore islands can also serve as refuges for native biota but require ongoing effort to maintain low-pest or pest-free status. Three management options are available in the presence of reinvasion risk: (1) control-to-zero density, in which immigration may occur but reinvaders are removed; (2) sustained population suppression (to relatively low numbers); or (3) no action. Biodiversity benefits can result from options one and two. The management challenge is to make evidence-based decisions on the selection of an appropriate objective and to identify a financially feasible control strategy that has a high probability of success. This requires understanding the pest species population dynamics and how it will respond to a range of potential management strategies, each with an associated financial cost. We developed a two-stage modeling approach that consisted of (1) Bayesian inferential modeling to estimate parameters for a model of pest population dynamics and control, and (2) a forward projection model to simulate a range of plausible management scenarios and quantify the probability of obtaining zero density within four years. We applied the model to an ongoing, six-year trapping program to control stoats (Mustela erminea) on Resolution Island, New Zealand. Zero density has not yet been achieved. Results demonstrate that management objectives were impeded by a combination of a highly fecund population, insufficient trap attractiveness, and a substantial proportion of the population that did not enter traps. Immigration is known to occur because the founding population arrived on the island by swimming from the mainland. However, immigration rate during this study was indistinguishable from zero. The forward projection modeling showed that control-to-zero density was feasible but required greater than a two-fold budget increase to intensify the trapping rate relative to population growth. The two-stage modeling provides the foundation for a management program in which broad-scale trials of additional trapping effort or improved trap lures would test model predictions and increase our understanding of system dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

a Line-Based 3d Roof Model Reconstruction Algorithm: Tin-Merging and Reshaping (tmr)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, J.-Y.

2012-07-01

Three-dimensional building model is one of the major components of a cyber-city and is vital for the realization of 3D GIS applications. In the last decade, the airborne laser scanning (ALS) data is widely used for 3D building model reconstruction and object extraction. Instead, based on 3D roof structural lines, this paper presents a novel algorithm for automatic roof models reconstruction. A line-based roof model reconstruction algorithm, called TIN-Merging and Reshaping (TMR), is proposed. The roof structural line, such as edges, eaves and ridges, can be measured manually from aerial stereo-pair, derived by feature line matching or inferred from ALS data. The originality of the TMR algorithm for 3D roof modelling is to perform geometric analysis and topology reconstruction among those unstructured lines and then reshapes the roof-type using elevation information from the 3D structural lines. For topology reconstruction, a line constrained Delaunay Triangulation algorithm is adopted where the input structural lines act as constraint and their vertex act as input points. Thus, the constructed TINs will not across the structural lines. Later at the stage of Merging, the shared edge between two TINs will be check if the original structural line exists. If not, those two TINs will be merged into a polygon. Iterative checking and merging of any two neighboured TINs/Polygons will result in roof polygons on the horizontal plane. Finally, at the Reshaping stage any two structural lines with fixed height will be used to adjust a planar function for the whole roof polygon. In case ALS data exist, the Reshaping stage can be simplified by adjusting the point cloud within the roof polygon. The proposed scheme reduces the complexity of 3D roof modelling and makes the modelling process easier. Five test datasets provided by ISPRS WG III/4 located at downtown Toronto, Canada and Vaihingen, Germany are used for experiment. The test sites cover high rise buildings and residential area with diverse roof type. For performance evaluation, the adopted roof structural lines are manually measured from the provided stereo-pair. Experimental results indicate a nearly 100% success rate for topology reconstruction was achieved provided that the 3D structural lines can be enclosed as polygons. On the other hand, the success rate at the Reshaping stage is dependent on the complexity of the rooftop structure. Thus, a visual inspection and semi-automatic adjustment of roof-type is suggested and implemented to complete the roof modelling. The results demonstrate that the proposed scheme is robust and reliable with a high degree of completeness, correctness, and quality, even when a group of connected buildings with multiple layers and mixed roof types is processed.

A dysmorphology score system for assessing embryo abnormalities in rat whole embryo culture.

PubMed

Zhang, Cindy X; Danberry, Tracy; Jacobs, Mary Ann; Augustine-Rauch, Karen

2010-12-01

The rodent whole embryo culture (WEC) system is a well-established model for characterizing developmental toxicity of test compounds and conducting mechanistic studies. Laboratories have taken various approaches in describing type and severity of developmental findings of organogenesis-stage rodent embryos, but the Brown and Fabro morphological score system is commonly used as a quantitative approach. The associated score criteria is based upon developmental stage and growth parameters, where a series of embryonic structures are assessed and assigned respective scores relative to their gestational stage, with a Total Morphological Score (TMS) assigned to the embryo. This score system is beneficial because it assesses a series of stage-specific anatomical landmarks, facilitating harmonized evaluation across laboratories. Although the TMS provides a quantitative approach to assess growth and determine developmental delay, it is limited to its ability to identify and/or delineate subtle or structure-specific abnormalities. Because of this, the TMS may not be sufficiently sensitive for identifying compounds that induce structure or organ-selective effects. This study describes a distinct morphological score system called the "Dysmorphology Score System (DMS system)" that has been developed for assessing gestation day 11 (approximately 20-26 somite stage) rat embryos using numerical scores to differentiate normal from abnormal morphology and define the respective severity of dysmorphology of specific embryonic structures and organ systems. This method can also be used in scoring mouse embryos of the equivalent developmental stage. The DMS system enhances capabilities to rank-order compounds based upon teratogenic potency, conduct structure- relationships of chemicals, and develop statistical prediction models to support abbreviated developmental toxicity screens. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Hongfei; Degaetano, Arthur T.; Harrington, Laura C.

2011-05-01

Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.

Frequency analysis of a two-stage planetary gearbox using two different methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feki, Nabih; Karray, Maha; Khabou, Mohamed Tawfik; Chaari, Fakher; Haddar, Mohamed

2017-12-01

This paper is focused on the characterization of the frequency content of vibration signals issued from a two-stage planetary gearbox. To achieve this goal, two different methodologies are adopted: the lumped-parameter modeling approach and the phenomenological modeling approach. The two methodologies aim to describe the complex vibrations generated by a two-stage planetary gearbox. The phenomenological model describes directly the vibrations as measured by a sensor fixed outside the fixed ring gear with respect to an inertial reference frame, while results from a lumped-parameter model are referenced with respect to a rotating frame and then transferred into an inertial reference frame. Two different case studies of the two-stage planetary gear are adopted to describe the vibration and the corresponding spectra using both models. Each case presents a specific geometry and a specific spectral structure.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Sociodemographic variation in the use of chemotherapy and radiotherapy in patients with stage IV lung, oesophageal, stomach and pancreatic cancer: evidence from population-based data in England during 2013-2014.

PubMed

Henson, Katherine E; Fry, Anna; Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Peake, Michael; Roberts, Keith J; McPhail, Sean

2018-05-10

Sociodemographic inequalities in cancer treatment have been generally described, but there is little evidence regarding patients with advanced cancer. Understanding variation in the management of these patients may provide insights into likely mechanisms leading to inequalities in survival. We identified 50,232 patients with stage IV lung, oesophageal, pancreatic and stomach cancer from the English national cancer registry. A generalised linear model with a Poisson error structure was used to explore variation in radiotherapy and chemotherapy within 6 months from diagnosis by age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, cancer site, comorbidity and, additionally, performance status. There was substantial variation by cancer site, large gradients by age, and non-trivial associations with comorbidity and deprivation. After full adjustment, more deprived patients were consistently least likely to be treated with chemotherapy alone or chemotherapy and radiotherapy combined compared with less deprived patients with equally advanced disease stage (treatment rate ratio: 0.82 95% CI (0.78, 0.87) for CT, 0.78 95% CI (0.71, 0.85) for CTRT p < 0.0001). There was marked variation in the management of patients with stage IV cancer. Routinely collected data could be used for surveillance across all cancers to help reduce treatment variation and optimise outcomes among patients with advanced cancer.

Conditional Survival in Anal Carcinoma Using the National Population-Based Survey of Epidemiology and End Results Database (1988-2012).

PubMed

Kim, Ellen; Kim, Jong S; Choi, Mehee; Thomas, Charles R

2016-04-01

Conditional survival can provide valuable information for both patients and healthcare providers about the changing prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study estimated conditional survival for patients with anal cancer in the United States through analysis of a national population-based cancer registry. Log-rank test identified significant covariates of cause-specific survival (defined as time from diagnosis until death from anal cancer). Significant covariates were considered in the multivariable regression of cause-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards models. Covariates included cancer stage and demographic variables. Patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results regions diagnosed with anal squamous cell carcinoma as their first and only cancer diagnosis from 1988 to 2012 were selected from this database, and 5145 patients were included in the retrospective cohort study. Five-year conditional survival stratified by each variable in the final Cox models was measured : The final multivariable models of overall and cause-specific survivals included stage, grade, sex, age, race, and relationship status. Over the first 6 years after diagnosis, conditional survival of distant stage increased from 37% to 89%, whereas regional stage increased from 65% to 93% and localized stage increased from 84% to 96%. The other variables had increasing prognosis as well, but the subgroups increased at a more similar rate over time. The data source used does not include information on chemotherapy treatment, patient comorbidities, or socioeconomic status. Conditional survival showed improvement over time. Patients with advanced stage had the greatest improvement in conditional survival. This is the first study to provide specific conditional survival probabilities for patients with anal cancer.

Probabilistic models of genetic variation in structured populations applied to global human studies.

PubMed

Hao, Wei; Song, Minsun; Storey, John D

2016-03-01

Modern population genetics studies typically involve genome-wide genotyping of individuals from a diverse network of ancestries. An important problem is how to formulate and estimate probabilistic models of observed genotypes that account for complex population structure. The most prominent work on this problem has focused on estimating a model of admixture proportions of ancestral populations for each individual. Here, we instead focus on modeling variation of the genotypes without requiring a higher-level admixture interpretation. We formulate two general probabilistic models, and we propose computationally efficient algorithms to estimate them. First, we show how principal component analysis can be utilized to estimate a general model that includes the well-known Pritchard-Stephens-Donnelly admixture model as a special case. Noting some drawbacks of this approach, we introduce a new 'logistic factor analysis' framework that seeks to directly model the logit transformation of probabilities underlying observed genotypes in terms of latent variables that capture population structure. We demonstrate these advances on data from the Human Genome Diversity Panel and 1000 Genomes Project, where we are able to identify SNPs that are highly differentiated with respect to structure while making minimal modeling assumptions. A Bioconductor R package called lfa is available at http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/lfa.html jstorey@princeton.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Influence of the Size of Cohorts in Adaptive Design for Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models: An Evaluation by Simulation for a Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for a Biomarker in Oncology

PubMed Central

Lestini, Giulia; Dumont, Cyrielle; Mentré, France

2015-01-01

Purpose In this study we aimed to evaluate adaptive designs (ADs) by clinical trial simulation for a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model in oncology and to compare them with one-stage designs, i.e. when no adaptation is performed, using wrong prior parameters. Methods We evaluated two one-stage designs, ξ0 and ξ*, optimised for prior and true population parameters, Ψ0 and Ψ*, and several ADs (two-, three- and five-stage). All designs had 50 patients. For ADs, the first cohort design was ξ0. The next cohort design was optimised using prior information updated from the previous cohort. Optimal design was based on the determinant of the Fisher information matrix using PFIM. Design evaluation was performed by clinical trial simulations using data simulated from Ψ*. Results Estimation results of two-stage ADs and ξ* were close and much better than those obtained with ξ0. The balanced two-stage AD performed better than two-stage ADs with different cohort sizes. Three-and five-stage ADs were better than two-stage with small first cohort, but not better than the balanced two-stage design. Conclusions Two-stage ADs are useful when prior parameters are unreliable. In case of small first cohort, more adaptations are needed but these designs are complex to implement. PMID:26123680

Influence of the Size of Cohorts in Adaptive Design for Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models: An Evaluation by Simulation for a Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for a Biomarker in Oncology.

PubMed

Lestini, Giulia; Dumont, Cyrielle; Mentré, France

2015-10-01

In this study we aimed to evaluate adaptive designs (ADs) by clinical trial simulation for a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model in oncology and to compare them with one-stage designs, i.e., when no adaptation is performed, using wrong prior parameters. We evaluated two one-stage designs, ξ0 and ξ*, optimised for prior and true population parameters, Ψ0 and Ψ*, and several ADs (two-, three- and five-stage). All designs had 50 patients. For ADs, the first cohort design was ξ0. The next cohort design was optimised using prior information updated from the previous cohort. Optimal design was based on the determinant of the Fisher information matrix using PFIM. Design evaluation was performed by clinical trial simulations using data simulated from Ψ*. Estimation results of two-stage ADs and ξ * were close and much better than those obtained with ξ 0. The balanced two-stage AD performed better than two-stage ADs with different cohort sizes. Three- and five-stage ADs were better than two-stage with small first cohort, but not better than the balanced two-stage design. Two-stage ADs are useful when prior parameters are unreliable. In case of small first cohort, more adaptations are needed but these designs are complex to implement.

Growing population causes of unemployment.

PubMed

1995-01-01

At the March, 1995, International Meeting on Population and Social Development in Copenhagen, during the session on unemployment, underemployment, and population it was stated that the problem of employment was the extent to which a nation's labor supply was not matched by labor demand or job opportunities. Population was thus a supply factor, and the country's economic situation was a demand factor. The demographic variables that were considered important in the supply of labor were: a) the size and rate of growth of the population, which was a function of the birth rate, the death rate, and migration; and b) the age structure of the population, which was also a product of the rate of growth of the population and its distribution. An imbalance between the supply of labor and the demand for it gave rise to unemployment and underemployment. The vicious cycle generated by a high dependency burden associated with a young age-structure led to low savings and investments, which in turn led to low economic growth and a low standard of living. This produced high fertility rates, which in turn heightened the dependency burden perpetuating the cycle. This vicious cycle could be broken at only two points: at the high fertility stage, primarily by introducing family planning programs; and at the stage of low economic growth, by adopting policies to accelerate economic growth. To be successful, however, both actions had to be pursued simultaneously. Numerous participants emphasized the global nature of the issue of unemployment and underemployment; the effects of international competition and restrictive trade policies on employment opportunities. The growing disparity between North and South had created a social injustice between countries. Several participants called for more humane policies that favored democracy and promoted human development, and asked for assistance to help create an enabling environment for social and economic development.

On the Origin and Spread of the Scab Disease of Apple: Out of Central Asia

PubMed Central

Gladieux, Pierre; Zhang, Xiu-Guo; Afoufa-Bastien, Damien; Valdebenito Sanhueza, Rosa-Maria; Sbaghi, Mohamed; Le Cam, Bruno

2008-01-01

Background Venturia inaequalis is an ascomycete fungus responsible for apple scab, a disease that has invaded almost all apple growing regions worldwide, with the corresponding adverse effects on apple production. Monitoring and predicting the effectiveness of intervention strategies require knowledge of the origin, introduction pathways, and population biology of pathogen populations. Analysis of the variation of genetic markers using the inferential framework of population genetics offers the potential to retrieve this information. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we present a population genetic analysis of microsatellite variation in 1,273 strains of V. inaequalis representing 28 orchard samples from seven regions in five continents. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that most of the variation (88%) was distributed within localities, which is consistent with extensive historical migrations of the fungus among and within regions. Despite this shallow population structure, clustering analyses partitioned the data set into separate groups corresponding roughly to geography, indicating that each region hosts a distinct population of the fungus. Comparison of the levels of variability among populations, along with coalescent analyses of migration models and estimates of genetic distances, was consistent with a scenario in which the fungus emerged in Central Asia, where apple was domesticated, before its introduction into Europe and, more recently, into other continents with the expansion of apple growing. Across the novel range, levels of variability pointed to multiple introductions and all populations displayed signatures of significant post-introduction increases in population size. Most populations exhibited high genotypic diversity and random association of alleles across loci, indicating recombination both in native and introduced areas. Conclusions/Significance Venturia inaequalis is a model of invasive phytopathogenic fungus that has now reached the ultimate stage of the invasion process with a broad geographic distribution and well-established populations displaying high genetic variability, regular sexual reproduction, and demographic expansion. PMID:18197265

Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

2016-02-01

In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Treesearch

Donald J. Brown; Christine A. Ribic; Deahn M. Donner; Mark D. Nelson; Carol I. Bocetti; Christie M. Deloria-Sheffield; Des Thompson

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii...

Cure by age and stage at diagnosis for colorectal cancer patients in North West England, 1997-2004: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shack, L G; Shah, A; Lambert, P C; Rachet, B

2012-12-01

Stage and age at diagnosis are important prognostic factors for patients with colorectal cancer. However, the proportion cured by stage and age is unknown in England. This population-based study includes 29,563 adult patients who were diagnosed and registered with colorectal cancer during 1997-2004 and followed till 2007 in North West England. Multiple imputation was used to provide more reliable estimates of stage at diagnosis, when these data were missing. Cure mixture models were used to estimate the proportion 'cured' and the median survival of the uncured by age and stage. For both colon and rectal cancer the proportion of patients cured and median survival time of the uncured decreased with advancing stage and increasing age. Patients aged under 65 years had the highest proportion cured and longest median survival of the uncured. Cure of colorectal cancer patients is dependent on stage and age at diagnosis with younger patients or those with less advanced disease having a better prognosis. Further efforts are required, in order to reduce the proportion of patients presenting with stage III and IV disease and ultimately increase the chance of cure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction to symposium on unmeasured heterogeneity in school transition models

PubMed Central

Mare, Robert D.

2014-01-01

Researchers have used models of school transitions for over 30 years to describe inequality of educational opportunity and have contributed a number of important refinements and extensions. School transition models have the complication that the estimated effects of family background on the probability of continuing in school are affected by differential attrition on unobserved factors at earlier stages of schooling. The articles in this symposium present a variety of useful approaches to unobserved heterogeneity in school transition models. Investigators who use these approaches should attend to several issues: (1) models for school transitions may be used both descriptively (and are not therefore subject to any well-defined “bias”) and as tools for causal inference. (2) The concept of bias presupposes an underlying experiment, structural model, or population model that would, in principle, define the corresponding unbiased parameters – yet these underlying models are difficult to specify for school transition models. (3) Unobserved determinants of whether individuals make school transitions may be both exogenous and endogenous with respect to the observed regressors in the model. Without a model of how unobserved heterogeneity arises, attempted “corrections” for unmeasured heterogeneity may yield misleading estimates of the effects of measured determinants of school continuation. PMID:24882915

Introduction to symposium on unmeasured heterogeneity in school transition models.

PubMed

Mare, Robert D

2011-09-01

Researchers have used models of school transitions for over 30 years to describe inequality of educational opportunity and have contributed a number of important refinements and extensions. School transition models have the complication that the estimated effects of family background on the probability of continuing in school are affected by differential attrition on unobserved factors at earlier stages of schooling. The articles in this symposium present a variety of useful approaches to unobserved heterogeneity in school transition models. Investigators who use these approaches should attend to several issues: (1) models for school transitions may be used both descriptively (and are not therefore subject to any well-defined "bias") and as tools for causal inference. (2) The concept of bias presupposes an underlying experiment, structural model, or population model that would, in principle, define the corresponding unbiased parameters - yet these underlying models are difficult to specify for school transition models. (3) Unobserved determinants of whether individuals make school transitions may be both exogenous and endogenous with respect to the observed regressors in the model. Without a model of how unobserved heterogeneity arises, attempted "corrections" for unmeasured heterogeneity may yield misleading estimates of the effects of measured determinants of school continuation.

Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, R; Abbott, J H

2018-04-01

To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ). We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates. The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies. The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system. Copyright © 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Staging in polyacetylene-iodine conductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baughman, R. H.; Murthy, N. S.; Miller, G. G.; Shacklette, L. W.

1983-07-01

Evidence is presented for the existence of highly conducting polyacetylene complexes with structures related to high-stage graphite, as well as structures related to first-stage graphite. X-ray diffraction measurements on polyacetylene-iodine complexes indicate equatorial lines at 7.7-8.0 and 13.8-14.3 Å. The shorter spacing arises in part from a structure in which iodine-rich planes alternate with planes of polyacetylene chains. The longer spacing, which disappears upon atmospheric exposure, is consistent with a structure analogous to third-stage graphite in which dopant-rich planes are separated by three close-packed planes of polyacetylene chains. The third-stage complex can be viewed as a perturbation of the structure of undoped polyacetylene, with the region between dopant layers consisting essentially of a one unit cell thickness of the parent polymer structure. Packing calculations for this model, in which a linear column of anions (I3- and/or I5-) displaces either every chain or every other chain in the dopant-rich layer, provide an interlayer spacing which is equal to that observed. Evidence consistent with third-stage structures (with both fractional occupation and complete occupation of the dopant plane) is also found by reexamination of published sorption data, which provides slope changes at close to the calculated limiting compositions for these structures [(CHI0.056)x and (CHI0.13)x]. However, a first-stage structure with alternating dopant arrays and polymer chains in the dopant plane [for which (CHI0.13)x is calculated] provides a better explanation for the second slope change, as well as for the composition obtained under dynamic vacuum, (CHI0.14)x. These results for iodine complexes are compared with those derived for the group VA halide complexes of polyacetylene.

Effects of specific surface area of metallic nickel particles on carbon deposition kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhi-yuan; Bian, Liu-zhen; Yu, Zi-you; Wang, Li-jun; Li, Fu-shen; Chou, Kuo-Chih

2018-02-01

Carbon deposition on nickel powders in methane involves three stages in different reaction temperature ranges. Temperature programing oxidation test and Raman spectrum results indicated the formation of complex and ordered carbon structures at high deposition temperatures. The values of I(D)/ I(G) of the deposited carbon reached 1.86, 1.30, and 1.22 in the first, second, and third stages, respectively. The structure of carbon in the second stage was similar to that in the third stage. Carbon deposited in the first stage rarely contained homogeneous pyrolytic deposit layers. A kinetic model was developed to analyze the carbon deposition behavior in the first stage. The rate-determining step of the first stage is supposed to be interfacial reaction. Based on the investigation of carbon deposition kinetics on nickel powders from different resources, carbon deposition rate is suggested to have a linear relation with the square of specific surface area of nickel particles.

Effects of Forest Gaps on Soil Properties in Castanopsis kawakamii Nature Forest.

PubMed

He, Zhongsheng; Liu, Jinfu; Su, Songjin; Zheng, Shiqun; Xu, Daowei; Wu, Zeyan; Hong, Wei; Wang, James Li-Ming

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of forest gaps on the variations of soil properties in Castanopsis kawakamii natural forest. Soil physical and chemical properties in various sizes and development stages were studied in C. kawakamii natural forest gaps. The results showed that forest gaps in various sizes and development stages could improve soil pore space structure and water characteristics, which may effectively promote the water absorbing capacity for plant root growth and play an important role in forest regeneration. Soil pore space structure and water characteristics in small gaps showed more obvious improvements, followed by the medium and large gaps. Soil pore space structure and water characteristics in the later development stage of forest gaps demonstrated more obvious improvements, followed by the early and medium development stages. The contents of hydrolysable N and available K in various sizes and development stages of forest gaps were higher than those of non-gaps, whereas the contents of total N, total P, available P, organic matter, and organic carbon were lower. The contents of total N, hydrolysable N, available K, organic matter, and organic carbon in medium gaps were higher than those of large and small gaps. The disturbance of forest gaps could improve the soils' physical and chemical properties and increase the population species' richness, which would provide an ecological basis for the species coexistence in C. kawakamii natural forest.

PACM: A Two-Stage Procedure for Analyzing Structural Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lehmann, Donald R.; Gupta, Sunil

1989-01-01

Path Analysis of Covariance Matrix (PACM) is described as a way to separately estimate measurement and structural models using standard least squares procedures. PACM was empirically compared to simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation and use of the LISREL computer program, and its advantages are identified. (SLD)

Psychosocial determinants of HIV testing across stages of change in Spanish population: a cross-sectional national survey.

PubMed

Fuster-RuizdeApodaca, Maria Jose; Laguia, Ana; Molero, Fernando; Toledo, Javier; Arrillaga, Arantxa; Jaen, Angeles

2017-03-07

The goal of this research is to study the psychosocial determinants of HIV-testing as a function of the decision or change stage concerning this health behavior. The determinants considered in the major ongoing health models and the stages contemplated in the Precaution Adoption Process Model are analysed. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 1,554 people over 16 years of age living in Spain by a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI). The sample design was randomised, with quotas of sex and age. The survey measured various psychosocial determinants of health behaviors considered in the main cognitive theories, the interviewees' stage of change concerning HIV-testing (lack of awareness, decision not to act, decision to act, action, maintenance, and abandonment), and the signal for the action of getting tested or the perceived barriers to being tested. Approximately two thirds of the population had not ever had the HIV test. The predominant stage was lack of awareness. The most frequently perceived barriers to testing were related to the health system and to the stigma. We also found that the psychosocial determinants studied differed depending on the respondents' stage of change. Perception of risk, perceived self-efficacy, proximity to people who had been tested, perceived benefits of knowing the diagnosis, and a positive instrumental and emotional attitude were positively associated with the decision and maintenance of testing behavior. However, unrealistic underestimation of the risk of HIV infection, stereotypes about the infection, and the perceived severity of HIV were associated with the decision not to be tested. There are various sociocognitive and motivational profiles depending on people's decision stage concerning HIV-testing. Knowing this profile may allow us to design interventions to influence the psychosocial determinants that characterise each stage of change.

Minority stress, psychosocial resources, and psychological distress among sexual minority breast cancer survivors

PubMed Central

Kamen, Charles; Jabson, Jennifer M.; Mustian, Karen M.; Boehmer, Ulrike

2017-01-01

Objective Few studies have examined unique factors predicting psychological distress among sexual minority (i.e., lesbian and bisexual) women post breast cancer diagnosis. The present study assessed the association of minority stress and psychosocial resource factors with depression and anxiety symptoms among sexual minority breast cancer survivors. Methods 201 sexual minority women who had ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) or stage I-IV breast cancer participated in this study through the Love/Avon Army of Women (AOW). Self-report questionnaires were used to assess demographic and clinical factors, minority stress factors (discrimination, minority identity development, outness), psychosocial resources (resilience, social support), and psychological distress (anxiety and depression). These factors were included in a structural equation model, testing psychosocial resources as mediators between minority stress and psychological distress. Results There were no significant differences noted between lesbian and bisexual women. The final structural equation model demonstrated acceptable fit across all sexual minority women, χ2 = 27.83, p > 0.05; confirmatory fit index = 0.97, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.04, Tucker-Lewis Index = 0.93. The model accounted for significant variance in psychological distress (56%). Examination of indirect effects confirmed that exposure to discrimination was associated with distress via association with resilience. Conclusions Factors unique to sexual minority populations, such as minority stress, may be associated with higher rates of psychological distress among sexual minority breast cancer survivors. However, presence of psychosocial resources may mediate relationships with distress in this population; enhancement of resilience, in particular, could be an aim of psychological intervention. PMID:28165265

Learning-based prediction of gestational age from ultrasound images of the fetal brain.

PubMed

Namburete, Ana I L; Stebbing, Richard V; Kemp, Bryn; Yaqub, Mohammad; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Alison Noble, J

2015-04-01

We propose an automated framework for predicting gestational age (GA) and neurodevelopmental maturation of a fetus based on 3D ultrasound (US) brain image appearance. Our method capitalizes on age-related sonographic image patterns in conjunction with clinical measurements to develop, for the first time, a predictive age model which improves on the GA-prediction potential of US images. The framework benefits from a manifold surface representation of the fetal head which delineates the inner skull boundary and serves as a common coordinate system based on cranial position. This allows for fast and efficient sampling of anatomically-corresponding brain regions to achieve like-for-like structural comparison of different developmental stages. We develop bespoke features which capture neurosonographic patterns in 3D images, and using a regression forest classifier, we characterize structural brain development both spatially and temporally to capture the natural variation existing in a healthy population (N=447) over an age range of active brain maturation (18-34weeks). On a routine clinical dataset (N=187) our age prediction results strongly correlate with true GA (r=0.98,accurate within±6.10days), confirming the link between maturational progression and neurosonographic activity observable across gestation. Our model also outperforms current clinical methods by ±4.57 days in the third trimester-a period complicated by biological variations in the fetal population. Through feature selection, the model successfully identified the most age-discriminating anatomies over this age range as being the Sylvian fissure, cingulate, and callosal sulci. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Minority stress, psychosocial resources, and psychological distress among sexual minority breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Kamen, Charles; Jabson, Jennifer M; Mustian, Karen M; Boehmer, Ulrike

2017-06-01

Few studies have examined unique factors predicting psychological distress among sexual minority (i.e., lesbian and bisexual) women postbreast cancer diagnosis. The present study assessed the association of minority stress and psychosocial resource factors with depression and anxiety symptoms among sexual minority breast cancer survivors. Two hundred one sexual minority women who had ductal carcinoma in situ or Stage I-IV breast cancer participated in this study through the Love/Avon Army of Women. Self-report questionnaires were used to assess demographic and clinical factors, minority stress factors (discrimination, minority identity development, outness), psychosocial resources (resilience, social support), and psychological distress (anxiety and depression). These factors were included in a structural equation model, testing psychosocial resources as mediators between minority stress and psychological distress. There were no significant differences noted between lesbian and bisexual women. The final structural equation model demonstrated acceptable fit across all sexual minority women, χ2 = 27.83, p > .05; confirmatory fit index = 0.97, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.04, Tucker-Lewis index = 0.93. The model accounted for significant variance in psychological distress (56%). Examination of indirect effects confirmed that exposure to discrimination was associated with distress via association with resilience. Factors unique to sexual minority populations, such as minority stress, may be associated with higher rates of psychological distress among sexual minority breast cancer survivors. However, presence of psychosocial resources may mediate relationships with distress in this population; enhancement of resilience, in particular, could be an aim of psychological intervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

An eco-physiological model of the impact of temperature on Aedes aegypti life history traits.

PubMed

Padmanabha, Harish; Correa, Fabio; Legros, Mathieu; Nijhout, H Fredrick; Lord, Cynthia; Lounibos, L Philip

2012-12-01

Physiological processes mediate the impact of ecological conditions on the life histories of insect vectors. For the dengue/chikungunya mosquito, Aedes aegypti, three life history traits that are critical to urban population dynamics and control are: size, development rate and starvation mortality. In this paper we make use of prior laboratory experiments on each of these traits at 2°C intervals between 20 and 30°C, in conjunction with eco-evolutionary theory and studies on A.aegypti physiology, in order to develop a conceptual and mathematical framework that can predict their thermal sensitivity. Our model of reserve dependent growth (RDG), which considers a potential tradeoff between the accumulation of reserves and structural biomass, was able to robustly predict laboratory observations, providing a qualitative improvement over the approach most commonly used in other A.aegypti models. RDG predictions of reduced size at higher temperatures, but increased reserves relative to size, are supported by the available evidence in Aedes spp. We offer the potentially general hypothesis that temperature-size patterns in mosquitoes are driven by a net benefit of finishing the growing stage with proportionally greater reserves relative to structure at warmer temperatures. By relating basic energy flows to three fundamental life history traits, we provide a mechanistic framework for A.aegypti development to which ecological complexity can be added. Ultimately, this could provide a framework for developing and field testing hypotheses on how processes such as climate variation, density dependent regulation, human behavior or control strategies may influence A.aegypti population dynamics and disease risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Two-Stage Approach to Synthesizing Covariance Matrices in Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheung, Mike W. L.; Chan, Wai

2009-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is widely used as a statistical framework to test complex models in behavioral and social sciences. When the number of publications increases, there is a need to systematically synthesize them. Methodology of synthesizing findings in the context of SEM is known as meta-analytic SEM (MASEM). Although correlation…

Viability of piping plover Charadrius melodus metapopulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plissner, Jonathan H.; Haig, Susan M.

2000-01-01

The metapopulation viability analysis package, VORTEX, was used to examine viability and recovery objectives for piping plovers Charadrius melodus, an endangered shorebird that breeds in three distinct regions of North America. Baseline models indicate that while Atlantic Coast populations, under current management practices, are at little risk of near-term extinction, Great Plains and Great Lakes populations require 36% higher mean fecundity for a significant probability of persisting for the next 100 years. Metapopulation structure (i.e. the delineation of populations within the metapopulation) and interpopulation dispersal rates had varying effects on model results; however, spatially-structured metapopulations exhibited lower viability than that reported for single-population models. The models were most sensitive to variation in survivorship; hence, additional mortality data will improve their accuracy. With this information, such models become useful tools in identifying successful management objectives; and sensitivity analyses, even in the absence of some data, may indicate which options are likely to be most effective. Metapopulation viability models are best suited for developing conservation strategies for achieving recovery objectives based on maintaining an externally derived, target population size and structure.

The good, the bad and the ugly of marine reserves for fishery yields.

PubMed

De Leo, Giulio A; Micheli, Fiorenza

2015-11-05

Marine reserves (MRs) are used worldwide as a means of conserving biodiversity and protecting depleted populations. Despite major investments in MRs, their environmental and social benefits have proven difficult to demonstrate and are still debated. Clear expectations of the possible outcomes of MR establishment are needed to guide and strengthen empirical assessments. Previous models show that reserve establishment in overcapitalized, quota-based fisheries can reduce both catch and population abundance, thereby negating fisheries and even conservation benefits. By using a stage-structured, spatially explicit stochastic model, we show that catches under quota-based fisheries that include a network of MRs can exceed maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under conventional quota management if reserves provide protection to old, large spawners that disproportionally contribute to recruitment outside the reserves. Modelling results predict that the net fishery benefit of MRs is lost when gains in fecundity of old, large individuals are small, is highest in the case of sedentary adults with high larval dispersal, and decreases with adult mobility. We also show that environmental variability may mask fishery benefits of reserve implementation and that MRs may buffer against collapse when sustainable catch quotas are exceeded owing to stock overestimation or systematic overfishing. © 2015 The Author(s).

PHENOTYPIC DIFFERENTIATION AT SOUTHERN LIMIT BORDERS: THE CASE STUDY OF TWO FUCOID MACROALGAL SPECIES WITH DIFFERENT LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS1.

PubMed

Araújo, Rita; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

2011-06-01

Marginal populations are often geographically isolated, smaller, and more fragmented than central populations and may frequently have to face suboptimal local environmental conditions. Persistence of these populations frequently involves the development of adaptive traits at phenotypic and genetic levels. We compared population structure and demographic variables in two fucoid macroalgal species contrasting in patterns of genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity at their southern distribution limit with a more central location. Models were Ascophyllum nodosum (L.) Le Jol. (whose extreme longevity and generation overlap may buffer genetic loss by drift) and Fucus serratus L. (with low genetic diversity at southern margins). At edge locations, both species exhibited trends in life-history traits compatible with population persistence but by using different mechanisms. Marginal populations of A. nodosum had higher reproductive output in spite of similar mortality rates at all life stages, making edge populations denser and with smaller individuals. In F. serratus, rather than demographic changes, marginal populations differed in habitat, occurring restricted to a narrower vertical habitat range. We conclude that persistence of both A. nodosum and F. serratus at the southern-edge locations depends on different strategies. Marginal population persistence in A. nodosum relies on a differentiation in life-history traits, whereas F. serratus, putatively poorer in evolvability potential, is restricted to a narrower vertical range at border locations. These results contribute to the general understanding of mechanisms that lead to population persistence at distributional limits and to predict population resilience under a scenario of environmental change. © 2011 Phycological Society of America.

Inference and Analysis of Population Structure Using Genetic Data and Network Theory

PubMed Central

Greenbaum, Gili; Templeton, Alan R.; Bar-David, Shirli

2016-01-01

Clustering individuals to subpopulations based on genetic data has become commonplace in many genetic studies. Inference about population structure is most often done by applying model-based approaches, aided by visualization using distance-based approaches such as multidimensional scaling. While existing distance-based approaches suffer from a lack of statistical rigor, model-based approaches entail assumptions of prior conditions such as that the subpopulations are at Hardy-Weinberg equilibria. Here we present a distance-based approach for inference about population structure using genetic data by defining population structure using network theory terminology and methods. A network is constructed from a pairwise genetic-similarity matrix of all sampled individuals. The community partition, a partition of a network to dense subgraphs, is equated with population structure, a partition of the population to genetically related groups. Community-detection algorithms are used to partition the network into communities, interpreted as a partition of the population to subpopulations. The statistical significance of the structure can be estimated by using permutation tests to evaluate the significance of the partition’s modularity, a network theory measure indicating the quality of community partitions. To further characterize population structure, a new measure of the strength of association (SA) for an individual to its assigned community is presented. The strength of association distribution (SAD) of the communities is analyzed to provide additional population structure characteristics, such as the relative amount of gene flow experienced by the different subpopulations and identification of hybrid individuals. Human genetic data and simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the analyses. The approach presented here provides a novel, computationally efficient model-free method for inference about population structure that does not entail assumption of prior conditions. The method is implemented in the software NetStruct (available at https://giligreenbaum.wordpress.com/software/). PMID:26888080

Inference and Analysis of Population Structure Using Genetic Data and Network Theory.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Templeton, Alan R; Bar-David, Shirli

2016-04-01

Clustering individuals to subpopulations based on genetic data has become commonplace in many genetic studies. Inference about population structure is most often done by applying model-based approaches, aided by visualization using distance-based approaches such as multidimensional scaling. While existing distance-based approaches suffer from a lack of statistical rigor, model-based approaches entail assumptions of prior conditions such as that the subpopulations are at Hardy-Weinberg equilibria. Here we present a distance-based approach for inference about population structure using genetic data by defining population structure using network theory terminology and methods. A network is constructed from a pairwise genetic-similarity matrix of all sampled individuals. The community partition, a partition of a network to dense subgraphs, is equated with population structure, a partition of the population to genetically related groups. Community-detection algorithms are used to partition the network into communities, interpreted as a partition of the population to subpopulations. The statistical significance of the structure can be estimated by using permutation tests to evaluate the significance of the partition's modularity, a network theory measure indicating the quality of community partitions. To further characterize population structure, a new measure of the strength of association (SA) for an individual to its assigned community is presented. The strength of association distribution (SAD) of the communities is analyzed to provide additional population structure characteristics, such as the relative amount of gene flow experienced by the different subpopulations and identification of hybrid individuals. Human genetic data and simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the analyses. The approach presented here provides a novel, computationally efficient model-free method for inference about population structure that does not entail assumption of prior conditions. The method is implemented in the software NetStruct (available at https://giligreenbaum.wordpress.com/software/). Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

Testing comparison models of DASS-12 and its reliability among adolescents in Malaysia.

PubMed

Osman, Zubaidah Jamil; Mukhtar, Firdaus; Hashim, Hairul Anuar; Abdul Latiff, Latiffah; Mohd Sidik, Sherina; Awang, Hamidin; Ibrahim, Normala; Abdul Rahman, Hejar; Ismail, Siti Irma Fadhilah; Ibrahim, Faisal; Tajik, Esra; Othman, Norlijah

2014-10-01

The 21-item Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21) is frequently used in non-clinical research to measure mental health factors among adults. However, previous studies have concluded that the 21 items are not stable for utilization among the adolescent population. Thus, the aims of this study are to examine the structure of the factors and to report on the reliability of the refined version of the DASS that consists of 12 items. A total of 2850 students (aged 13 to 17 years old) from three major ethnic in Malaysia completed the DASS-21. The study was conducted at 10 randomly selected secondary schools in the northern state of Peninsular Malaysia. The study population comprised secondary school students (Forms 1, 2 and 4) from the selected schools. Based on the results of the EFA stage, 12 items were included in a final CFA to test the fit of the model. Using maximum likelihood procedures to estimate the model, the selected fit indices indicated a close model fit (χ(2)=132.94, df=57, p=.000; CFI=.96; RMR=.02; RMSEA=.04). Moreover, significant loadings of all the unstandardized regression weights implied an acceptable convergent validity. Besides the convergent validity of the item, a discriminant validity of the subscales was also evident from the moderate latent factor inter-correlations, which ranged from .62 to .75. The subscale reliability was further estimated using Cronbach's alpha and the adequate reliability of the subscales was obtained (Total=76; Depression=.68; Anxiety=.53; Stress=.52). The new version of the 12-item DASS for adolescents in Malaysia (DASS-12) is reliable and has a stable factor structure, and thus it is a useful instrument for distinguishing between depression, anxiety and stress. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A unified genetic association test robust to latent population structure for a count phenotype.

PubMed

Song, Minsun

2018-06-04

Confounding caused by latent population structure in genome-wide association studies has been a big concern despite the success of genome-wide association studies at identifying genetic variants associated with complex diseases. In particular, because of the growing interest in association mapping using count phenotype data, it would be interesting to develop a testing framework for genetic associations that is immune to population structure when phenotype data consist of count measurements. Here, I propose a solution for testing associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms and a count phenotype in the presence of an arbitrary population structure. I consider a classical range of models for count phenotype data. Under these models, a unified test for genetic associations that protects against confounding was derived. An algorithm was developed to efficiently estimate the parameters that are required to fit the proposed model. I illustrate the proposed approach using simulation studies and an empirical study. Both simulated and real-data examples suggest that the proposed method successfully corrects population structure. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Characteristics of patients with missing information on stage: a population-based study of patients diagnosed with colon, lung or breast cancer in England in 2013.

PubMed

Di Girolamo, Chiara; Walters, Sarah; Benitez Majano, Sara; Rachet, Bernard; Coleman, Michel P; Njagi, Edmund Njeru; Morris, Melanie

2018-05-02

Stage is a key predictor of cancer survival. Complete cancer staging is vital for understanding outcomes at population level and monitoring the efficacy of early diagnosis initiatives. Cancer registries usually collect details of the disease extent but staging information may be missing because a stage was never assigned to a patient or because it was not included in cancer registration records. Missing stage information introduce methodological difficulties for analysis and interpretation of results. We describe the associations between missing stage and socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of patients diagnosed with colon, lung or breast cancer in England in 2013. We assess how these associations change when completeness is high, and administrative issues are assumed to be minimal. We estimate the amount of avoidable missing stage data if high levels of completeness reached by some Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs), were achieved nationally. Individual cancer records were retrieved from the National Cancer Registration and linked to the Routes to Diagnosis and Hospital Episode Statistics datasets to obtain additional clinical information. We used multivariable beta binomial regression models to estimate the strength of the association between socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of patients and missing stage and to derive the amount of avoidable missing stage. Multivariable modelling showed that old age was associated with missing stage irrespective of the cancer site and independent of comorbidity score, short-term mortality and patient characteristics. This remained true for patients in the CCGs with high completeness. Applying the results from these CCGs to the whole cohort showed that approximately 70% of missing stage information was potentially avoidable. Missing stage was more frequent in older patients, including those residing in CCGs with high completeness. This disadvantage for older patients was not explained fully by the presence of comorbidity. A substantial gain in completeness could have been achieved if administrative practices were improved to the level of the highest performing areas. Reasons for missing stage information should be carefully assessed before any study, and potential distortions introduced by how missing stage is handled should be considered in order to draw the most correct inference from available statistics.

Prediction of the As-Cast Structure of Al-4.0 Wt Pct Cu Ingots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadein, Mahmoud; Wu, M.; Li, J. H.; Schumacher, P.; Ludwig, A.

2013-06-01

A two-stage simulation strategy is proposed to predict the as-cast structure. During the first stage, a 3-phase model is used to simulate the mold-filling process by considering the nucleation, the initial growth of globular equiaxed crystals and the transport of the crystals. The three considered phases are the melt, air and globular equiaxed crystals. In the second stage, a 5-phase mixed columnar-equiaxed solidification model is used to simulate the formation of the as-cast structure including the distinct columnar and equiaxed zones, columnar-to-equiaxed transition, grain size distribution, macrosegregation, etc. The five considered phases are the extradendritic melt, the solid dendrite, the interdendritic melt inside the equiaxed grains, the solid dendrite, and the interdendritic melt inside the columnar grains. The extra- and interdendritic melts are treated as separate phases. In order to validate the above strategy, laboratory ingots (Al-4.0 wt pct Cu) are poured and analyzed, and a good agreement with the numerical predictions is achieved. The origin of the equiaxed crystals by the "big-bang" theory is verified to play a key role in the formation of the as-cast structure, especially for the castings poured at a low pouring temperature. A single-stage approach that only uses the 5-phase mixed columnar-equiaxed solidification model and ignores the mold filling can predict satisfactory results for a casting poured at high temperature, but it delivers false results for the casting poured at low temperature.

Li intercalation in graphite: A van der Waals density-functional study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazrati, E.; de Wijs, G. A.; Brocks, G.

2014-10-01

Modeling layered intercalation compounds from first principles poses a problem, as many of their properties are determined by a subtle balance between van der Waals interactions and chemical or Madelung terms, and a good description of van der Waals interactions is often lacking. Using van der Waals density functionals we study the structures, phonons and energetics of the archetype layered intercalation compound Li-graphite. Intercalation of Li in graphite leads to stable systems with calculated intercalation energies of -0.2 to -0.3 eV/Li atom, (referred to bulk graphite and Li metal). The fully loaded stage 1 and stage 2 compounds LiC6 and Li1 /2C6 are stable, corresponding to two-dimensional √{3 }×√{3 } lattices of Li atoms intercalated between two graphene planes. Stage N >2 structures are unstable compared to dilute stage 2 compounds with the same concentration. At elevated temperatures dilute stage 2 compounds easily become disordered, but the structure of Li3 /16C6 is relatively stable, corresponding to a √{7 }×√{7 } in-plane packing of Li atoms. First-principles calculations, along with a Bethe-Peierls model of finite temperature effects, allow for a microscopic description of the observed voltage profiles.

Population structure of resident, immigrant, and swimming Corophium volutator (Amphipoda) on an intertidal mudflat in the Bay of Fundy, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drolet, David; Barbeau, Myriam A.

2012-05-01

Spatial variation in biotic and abiotic conditions, and differences in dispersive behavior of different life history stages can result in the formation of zones with different demography for infaunal and epifaunal species within vast intertidal flats. In this study, we evaluated within-mudflat homogeneity of the infaunal amphipod Corophium volutator found in the mud (residents), colonizing artificially disturbed areas (immigrants), and caught in the water column (swimmers) on a large mudflat in the upper Bay of Fundy, Canada. Densities of residents, immigrants, and swimmers were well structured in space (both along and across shore). Occasionally, significant differences in size structure, sex ratio, and proportion of ovigerous females were found at different intertidal levels, but these were short-lived. Comparisons of size and sex structure of residents, immigrants, and swimmers revealed occasional marked differences, with small juveniles and large adult males moving most. However, this size-bias in movement did not translate into zones with different population dynamics, suggesting that ample dispersal, through swimming and drifting in the water column, homogenized the population and masked potential effects of variation in environmental conditions. We therefore conclude that the mudflat represents one homogeneous population.

18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer: Evidence-based recommendations in initial staging.

PubMed

Caresia Aroztegui, Ana Paula; García Vicente, Ana María; Alvarez Ruiz, Soledad; Delgado Bolton, Roberto Carlos; Orcajo Rincon, Javier; Garcia Garzon, Jose Ramon; de Arcocha Torres, Maria; Garcia-Velloso, Maria Jose

2017-10-01

Current guidelines do not systematically recommend 18F-FDG PET/CT for breast cancer staging; and the recommendations and level of evidence supporting its use in different groups of patients vary among guidelines. This review summarizes the evidence about the role of 18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer staging and the therapeutic and prognostic impact accumulated in the last decade. Other related aspects, such as the association of metabolic information with biology and prognosis are considered and evidence-based recommendations for the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT in breast cancer staging are offered. We systematically searched MEDLINE for articles reporting studies with at least 30 patients related to clinical questions following the Problem/Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome framework. We critically reviewed the selected articles and elaborated evidence tables structuring the summarized information into methodology, results, and limitations. The level of evidence and the grades of recommendation for the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT in different contexts are summarized. Level III evidence supports the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT for initial staging in patients with recently diagnosed breast cancer; the diagnostic and therapeutic impact of the 18F-FDG PET/CT findings is sufficient for a weak recommendation in this population. In patients with locally advanced breast cancer, level II evidence supports the use of 18F-FDG PET/CT for initial staging; the diagnostic and therapeutic impact of the 18F-FDG PET/CT findings is sufficient for a strong recommendation in this population. In patients with recently diagnosed breast cancer, the metabolic information from baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT is associated with tumor biology and has prognostic implications, supported by level II evidence. In conclusion, 18F-FDG PET/CT is not recommended for staging all patients with early breast cancer, although evidence of improved regional and systemic staging supports its use in locally advanced breast cancer. Baseline tumor glycolytic activity is associated with tumor biology and prognosis.

Integration of multi-objective structural optimization into cementless hip prosthesis design: Improved Austin-Moore model.

PubMed

Kharmanda, G

2016-11-01

A new strategy of multi-objective structural optimization is integrated into Austin-Moore prosthesis in order to improve its performance. The new resulting model is so-called Improved Austin-Moore. The topology optimization is considered as a conceptual design stage to sketch several kinds of hollow stems according to the daily loading cases. The shape optimization presents the detailed design stage considering several objectives. Here, A new multiplicative formulation is proposed as a performance scale in order to define the best compromise between several requirements. Numerical applications on 2D and 3D problems are carried out to show the advantages of the proposed model.

Two-stage damage diagnosis based on the distance between ARMA models and pre-whitening filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, H.; Mita, A.

2007-10-01

This paper presents a two-stage damage diagnosis strategy for damage detection and localization. Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are fitted to time series of vibration signals recorded by sensors. In the first stage, a novel damage indicator, which is defined as the distance between ARMA models, is applied to damage detection. This stage can determine the existence of damage in the structure. Such an algorithm uses output only and does not require operator intervention. Therefore it can be embedded in the sensor board of a monitoring network. In the second stage, a pre-whitening filter is used to minimize the cross-correlation of multiple excitations. With this technique, the damage indicator can further identify the damage location and severity when the damage has been detected in the first stage. The proposed methodology is tested using simulation and experimental data. The analysis results clearly illustrate the feasibility of the proposed two-stage damage diagnosis methodology.

78 FR 8535 - Medicare Program: Comprehensive End-Stage Renal Disease Care Model Announcement

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-06

... develop and test innovative health care payment and service delivery models that show promise of reducing program expenditures, while preserving or enhancing the quality of care for Medicare, Medicaid, and... disease (ESRD). This population has complex health care needs, typically with comorbid conditions and...

Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

Treesearch

Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

2014-01-01

Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

Knowledge representation and qualitative simulation of salmon redd functioning. Part I: qualitative modeling and simulation.

PubMed

Guerrin, F; Dumas, J

2001-02-01

This work aims at representing empirical knowledge of freshwater ecologists on the functioning of salmon redds (spawning areas of salmon) and its impact on mortality of early stages. For this, we use Qsim, a qualitative simulator. In this first part, we provide unfamiliar readers with the underlying qualitative differential equation (QDE) ontology of Qsim: representing quantities, qualitative variables, qualitative constraints, QDE structure. Based on a very simple example taken of the salmon redd application, we show how informal biological knowledge may be represented and simulated using an approach that was first intended to analyze qualitatively ordinary differential equations systems. A companion paper (Part II) gives the full description and simulation of the salmon redd qualitative model. This work was part of a project aimed at assessing the impact of the environment on salmon populations dynamics by the use of models of processes acting at different levels: catchment, river, and redds. Only the latter level is dealt with in this paper.

Mapping past, present, and future climatic suitability for invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the United States: a process-based modeling approach using CMIP5 downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, M. A. P.; Marcantonio, M.; Melton, F. S.; Barker, C. M.

2016-12-01

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnelly, Marisa Anne Pella; Marcantonio, Matteo; Melton, Forrest S.; Barker, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

Stage of cancer diagnoses among migrants from the former Soviet Union in comparison to the German population - are diagnoses among migrants delayed?

PubMed

Cho, An Bin; Jaehn, Philipp; Holleczek, Bernd; Becher, Heiko; Winkler, Volker

2018-01-17

In this study, we compared stage at diagnosis, standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of most frequent cancer diagnoses between re-settlers (Aussiedler) from the former Soviet Union and the general population in the Saarland in Germany to assess possible delays in diagnosis of cancer among this migrant group. Lung cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, malignant melanoma of the skin and stomach cancer diagnoses among a cohort of 18,619 re-settlers living in the Saarland between 1990 and 2009 were identified by the federal state's cancer registry. Vital status was available for the respective time-period and used to calculate SIR and SMR in comparison to the autochthonous population. Tumor stages were condensed into local and advanced stages. Odds ratios (OR) for an advanced tumor stage were modeled in dependence of re-settler-status and relevant covariates by logistic regression. Missing values were addressed in a sensitivity analysis. The influence of duration of stay in Germany on advanced stage diagnosis was analyzed among re-settlers. SIR and SMR of lung and breast cancer were lower among female re-settlers, while SIR and SMR of colorectal and prostate cancer were lower among male re-settlers. SIR and SMR of stomach cancer were elevated among both sexes. Female re-settlers showed an elevated OR for being diagnosed with advanced stage breast cancer. Both male and female re-settlers showed an elevated OR when observing all six sites combined (OR among males 1.47, p = 0.04; OR among females 1.37, p = 0.05). The result of elevated ORs was supported in the sensitivity analysis. Finally, male re-settlers showed a weak association between duration of stay in Germany and reduced risk for advanced stage diagnosis. Re-settlers were more likely to be diagnosed at an advanced tumor stage. These findings are in line with previous research having shown unfavorable health care utilization of re-settlers. Overall, low mortality rates despite an increased risk of advanced stage at diagnosis argue for a sufficient follow-up care, comparable to the autochthonous population.

Interpreting linear support vector machine models with heat map molecule coloring

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Model-based virtual screening plays an important role in the early drug discovery stage. The outcomes of high-throughput screenings are a valuable source for machine learning algorithms to infer such models. Besides a strong performance, the interpretability of a machine learning model is a desired property to guide the optimization of a compound in later drug discovery stages. Linear support vector machines showed to have a convincing performance on large-scale data sets. The goal of this study is to present a heat map molecule coloring technique to interpret linear support vector machine models. Based on the weights of a linear model, the visualization approach colors each atom and bond of a compound according to its importance for activity. Results We evaluated our approach on a toxicity data set, a chromosome aberration data set, and the maximum unbiased validation data sets. The experiments show that our method sensibly visualizes structure-property and structure-activity relationships of a linear support vector machine model. The coloring of ligands in the binding pocket of several crystal structures of a maximum unbiased validation data set target indicates that our approach assists to determine the correct ligand orientation in the binding pocket. Additionally, the heat map coloring enables the identification of substructures important for the binding of an inhibitor. Conclusions In combination with heat map coloring, linear support vector machine models can help to guide the modification of a compound in later stages of drug discovery. Particularly substructures identified as important by our method might be a starting point for optimization of a lead compound. The heat map coloring should be considered as complementary to structure based modeling approaches. As such, it helps to get a better understanding of the binding mode of an inhibitor. PMID:21439031

Validation of an Eulerian population model for the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alver, Morten Omholt; Broch, Ole Jacob; Melle, Webjørn; Bagøien, Espen; Slagstad, Dag

2016-08-01

Calanus finmarchicus is an important zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea, as a dominant food organism for pelagic fish larvae, and a potentially large source of marine lipids and proteins. Its position in the marine food web also makes it an important model species in assessing the risk posed by oil spills in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas. In this study, an Eulerian population model for C.finmarchicus, coupled to the physical and ecological model SINMOD, is presented. The model includes the full life cycle of C. finmarchicus with a representation of all developmental stages. The model has been validated against field measurements made in different areas of the Norwegian Sea in 1997 and 1998. The model displays geographical and temporal distributions of development stages that is in line with observed patterns. When comparing time series for selected regions, we see a high degree of variability both in the field samples and model output. On average, the model deviations are near half of the summed variability of the field data and model estimates. The model has applications within assessment of ecological production, and the potential for harvesting in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas, but in combination with other models, also for the assessment of ecological effects of oil spills and other types of pollution.

NGC 5044-N50: Una etapa evolutiva intermedia entre galaxias compactas azules (BCD) y enanas elípticas (dE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cellone, S. A.; Buzzoni, A.

The possible connection between dwarf elliptical (dE), dwarf irregular (dI), and blue compact dwarf (BCD) galaxies, is a subject of sustained interest, with deep consequences on our underestanding of star formation and evolution of galaxies. We present here observational results (ESO - CASLEO) on the dwarf galaxy N50 in the NGC 5044 Group, which appears to be at an intermediate stage BCD-dE, after its last star-formation burst. We focused on this galaxy because of its strong departure from the relation between luminosity and surface brightness profile curvature, despite its integrated color [(B-V)0=0.76], normal for a dE. However, new observations under sub-arcsec seeing conditions (ESO 3.6 m Tel.) showed several knots surrounding the nucleus whose colors (g-r, g-i, Gunn system) indicate, through evolutionary population synthesis models, ages around ~5 × 109 years with slightly sub-solar metallicities. The spectroscopic data support this scenario; hence, while the main component of N50 is an old (~ 15 × 109 yr) population, there is evidence of recent star formation activity within ~400 pc of the nucleus. The incidence of these structures on the anomalous profile of N50 is discussed, as well as the particular evolutive stage of this galaxy within the dE-BCD relation.

Identifying habitats at risk: simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed

Maxwell, Paul S; Pitt, Kylie A; Olds, Andrew D; Rissik, David; Connolly, Rod M

2015-03-01

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of conservation programs as a low-cost and relatively straightforward way to provide preliminary assessments of.nonlinear dynamics in ecosystems.

A framework for performance measurement in university using extended network data envelopment analysis (DEA) structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashim, Rosmaini; Kasim, Maznah Mat; Rahman, Rosshairy Abd

2015-12-01

Measuring university performance is essential for efficient allocation and utilization of educational resources. In most of the previous studies, performance measurement in universities emphasized the operational efficiency and resource utilization without investigating the university's ability to fulfill the needs of its stakeholders and society. Therefore, assessment of the performance of university should be separated into two stages namely efficiency and effectiveness. In conventional DEA analysis, a decision making unit (DMU) or in this context, a university is generally treated as a black-box which ignores the operation and interdependence of the internal processes. When this happens, the results obtained would be misleading. Thus, this paper suggest an alternative framework for measuring the overall performance of a university by incorporating both efficiency and effectiveness and applies network DEA model. The network DEA models are recommended because this approach takes into account the interrelationship between the processes of efficiency and effectiveness in the system. This framework also focuses on the university structure which is expanded from the hierarchical to form a series of horizontal relationship between subordinate units by assuming both intermediate unit and its subordinate units can generate output(s). Three conceptual models are proposed to evaluate the performance of a university. An efficiency model is developed at the first stage by using hierarchical network model. It is followed by an effectiveness model which take output(s) from the hierarchical structure at the first stage as a input(s) at the second stage. As a result, a new overall performance model is proposed by combining both efficiency and effectiveness models. Thus, once this overall model is realized and utilized, the university's top management can determine the overall performance of each unit more accurately and systematically. Besides that, the result from the network DEA model can give a superior benchmarking power over the conventional models.

The Prevalence of Stages of Heart Failure in Primary Care: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Jorge, Antonio Lagoeiro; Rosa, Maria Luiza G; Martins, Wolney A; Correia, Dayse Mary S; Fernandes, Luiz Claudio M; Costa, Jean A; Moscavitch, Samuel D; Jorge, Bruno Afonso L; Mesquita, Evandro T

2016-02-01

Planning strategies to prevent heart failure (HF) in developing countries require epidemiologic data in primary care. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of HF stages and their phenotypes, HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF), and HF with reduced EF (HFREF) and to determine B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels to identify HF in the adult population. This is a cross-sectional study including 633 individuals, aged ≥45 years, who were randomly selected and registered in a primary care program of a medium-sized city in Brazil. All participants were underwent clinical evaluations, BNP measurements, electrocardiograms, and tissue Doppler echocardiography in a single day. The participants were classified as stage 0 (healthy, 11.7%), stage A (risk factors, 36.6%), stage B (structural abnormalities, 42.7%), or stage C (symptomatic HF, 9.3%). Among patients with HF, 59% presented with HFPEF and 41% presented with HFREF. The mean BNP levels were 20 pg/mL(-1) in stage 0, 20 pg/mL(-1) in stage A, 24 pg/mL(-1) in stage B, 93 pg/mL(-1) in HFPEF, and 266 pg/mL(-1) in HFREF. The cutoff BNP level with optimal sensitivity (92%) and specificity (91%) to identify HF was 42 pg/mL(-1). The present study demonstrated a high prevalence of individuals at risk for HF and the predominance of HFPEF in a primary care setting. The clinical examination, along with BNP and tissue Doppler echocardiography, may facilitate early detection of stages A and B HF and allow implementation of interventions aimed at preventing progression to symptomatic HF. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Protein structure modeling for CASP10 by multiple layers of global optimization.

PubMed

Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, Juyong; Sim, Sangjin; Lee, Sun Young; Lee, Kiho; Heo, Seungryong; Lee, In-Ho; Lee, Sung Jong; Lee, Jooyoung

2014-02-01

In the template-based modeling (TBM) category of CASP10 experiment, we introduced a new protocol called protein modeling system (PMS) to generate accurate protein structures in terms of side-chains as well as backbone trace. In the new protocol, a global optimization algorithm, called conformational space annealing (CSA), is applied to the three layers of TBM procedure: multiple sequence-structure alignment, 3D chain building, and side-chain re-modeling. For 3D chain building, we developed a new energy function which includes new distance restraint terms of Lorentzian type (derived from multiple templates), and new energy terms that combine (physical) energy terms such as dynamic fragment assembly (DFA) energy, DFIRE statistical potential energy, hydrogen bonding term, etc. These physical energy terms are expected to guide the structure modeling especially for loop regions where no template structures are available. In addition, we developed a new quality assessment method based on random forest machine learning algorithm to screen templates, multiple alignments, and final models. For TBM targets of CASP10, we find that, due to the combination of three stages of CSA global optimizations and quality assessment, the modeling accuracy of PMS improves at each additional stage of the protocol. It is especially noteworthy that the side-chains of the final PMS models are far more accurate than the models in the intermediate steps. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Signals of large scale climate drivers, hatchery enhancement, and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model.

PubMed

Cunningham, Curry J; Westley, Peter A H; Adkison, Milo D

2018-05-18

Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co-occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage-structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density-dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age-specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under a warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species' range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

P. falciparum Infection Durations and Infectiousness Are Shaped by Antigenic Variation and Innate and Adaptive Host Immunity in a Mathematical Model

PubMed Central

Eckhoff, Philip

2012-01-01

Many questions remain about P. falciparum within-host dynamics, immunity, and transmission–issues that may affect public health campaign planning. These gaps in knowledge concern the distribution of durations of malaria infections, determination of peak parasitemia during acute infection, the relationships among gametocytes and immune responses and infectiousness to mosquitoes, and the effect of antigenic structure on reinfection outcomes. The present model of intra-host dynamics of P. falciparum implements detailed representations of parasite and immune dynamics, with structures based on minimal extrapolations from first-principles biology in its foundations. The model is designed to quickly and readily accommodate gains in mechanistic understanding and to evaluate effects of alternative biological hypothesis through in silico experiments. Simulations follow the parasite from the liver-stage through the detailed asexual cycle to clearance while tracking gametocyte populations. The modeled immune system includes innate inflammatory and specific antibody responses to a repertoire of antigens. The mechanistic focus provides clear explanations for the structure of the distribution of infection durations through the interaction of antigenic variation and innate and adaptive immunity. Infectiousness to mosquitoes appears to be determined not only by the density of gametocytes but also by the level of inflammatory cytokines, which harmonizes an extensive series of study results. Finally, pre-existing immunity can either decrease or increase the duration of infections upon reinfection, depending on the degree of overlap in antigenic repertoires and the strength of the pre-existing immunity. PMID:23028698

A2-3: Impact of Mild Chronic Kidney Disease Stage on Outcomes after Total Hip or Knee Arthroplasty

PubMed Central

Graham, Jove; Deegan, Brian; Bowen, Thomas; Richard, Raveesh; Perkins, Robert; Foltzer, Michael

2014-01-01

Background/Aims Dialysis and kidney transplantation adversely impact outcomes of total hip or knee arthroplasty (THA, TKA), but complication rates have not been reported for patients with less advanced stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Surgeons lack the data necessary to have informed discussions regarding anticipated outcomes of joint replacement for these patients. Methods We retrospectively reviewed electronic health records of 779 adults with stages 1, 2, and 3 CKD not requiring dialysis or transplantation who underwent THA or TKA from 2004–2011, to assess infection, revision, 90-day readmission and mortality rates. Patients with less than 12 months follow-up, open fracture, prior joint surgery, pregnancy, or acute kidney injury were excluded. Chi-square analysis and Cox survival analysis compared these outcomes between the stage 1–2 and stage 3 groups, stratified by joint replaced (THA vs TKA). All models adjusted for age, sex and BMI at surgery. Results No statistically different rates of revision or infection between Stage 3 vs. Stages 1–2 were seen, although there was a trend toward increased infections in Stage 3. THA patients with Stage 3 showed a significantly increased mortality rate compared to Stage 1–2 THA patients (HR 3.40, 95% CI = 1.25–9.23, P = 0.02). Conclusions CKD affects nearly 15% of the U.S. population many of whom undergo joint replacement. End stage kidney disease (patients post-transplant or on hemodialysis) has been consistently associated with increased rates of infection and revision in excess of our observed outcomes, but the overall rate of infection/revision in our study population was only slightly higher than reported rates in the general population (2–7% vs. 1–2%, respectively). CKD should not preclude joint replacement, but these data can help clinicians engage in meaningful informed discussions with patients with mild kidney disease regarding risks for infection, revision and death following joint replacement.

Detecting global and local hippocampal shape changes in Alzheimer's disease using statistical shape models.

PubMed

Shen, Kai-kai; Fripp, Jurgen; Mériaudeau, Fabrice; Chételat, Gaël; Salvado, Olivier; Bourgeat, Pierrick

2012-02-01

The hippocampus is affected at an early stage in the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). With the use of structural magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, we can investigate the effect of AD on the morphology of the hippocampus. The hippocampal shape variations among a population can be usually described using statistical shape models (SSMs). Conventional SSMs model the modes of variations among the population via principal component analysis (PCA). Although these modes are representative of variations within the training data, they are not necessarily discriminative on labeled data or relevant to the differences between the subpopulations. We use the shape descriptors from SSM as features to classify AD from normal control (NC) cases. In this study, a Hotelling's T2 test is performed to select a subset of landmarks which are used in PCA. The resulting variation modes are used as predictors of AD from NC. The discrimination ability of these predictors is evaluated in terms of their classification performances with bagged support vector machines (SVMs). Restricting the model to landmarks with better separation between AD and NC increases the discrimination power of SSM. The predictors extracted on the subregions also showed stronger correlation with the memory-related measurements such as Logical Memory, Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT) and the memory subscores of Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS). Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Classification with an Adaptive Naive Bayes Kernel Machine Model.

PubMed

Minnier, Jessica; Yuan, Ming; Liu, Jun S; Cai, Tianxi

2015-04-22

Genetic studies of complex traits have uncovered only a small number of risk markers explaining a small fraction of heritability and adding little improvement to disease risk prediction. Standard single marker methods may lack power in selecting informative markers or estimating effects. Most existing methods also typically do not account for non-linearity. Identifying markers with weak signals and estimating their joint effects among many non-informative markers remains challenging. One potential approach is to group markers based on biological knowledge such as gene structure. If markers in a group tend to have similar effects, proper usage of the group structure could improve power and efficiency in estimation. We propose a two-stage method relating markers to disease risk by taking advantage of known gene-set structures. Imposing a naive bayes kernel machine (KM) model, we estimate gene-set specific risk models that relate each gene-set to the outcome in stage I. The KM framework efficiently models potentially non-linear effects of predictors without requiring explicit specification of functional forms. In stage II, we aggregate information across gene-sets via a regularization procedure. Estimation and computational efficiency is further improved with kernel principle component analysis. Asymptotic results for model estimation and gene set selection are derived and numerical studies suggest that the proposed procedure could outperform existing procedures for constructing genetic risk models.

Population genetic structure, gene flow and recombination of Cochliobolus miyabeanus on cultivated wildrice (Zizania palustris)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cochliobolus miyabeanus (Bipolaris oryzae) is the causal agent of fungal brown spot (FBS) in wildrice (Zizania palustris), an aquatic grass endemic to Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and parts of Canada. Grain yield losses can reach up to 74% when the disease starts at the boot stage and continues u...

Methanogenic community composition in an organic waste mixture in an anaerobic bioreactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryta, Agata; Oszust, Karolina; Brzezińska, Małgorzata; Ziemiński, Krzysztof; Bilińska-Wielgus, Nina; Frąc, Magdalena

2017-07-01

The aim of the study was to elucidate the substantial relationship between the compositions of methanogen community that assembles in the anaerobic digester mass and link it to methane production activity. The results of the metagenomic studies were used to evaluate how the methanogen structure changes during an anaerobic digestion process under various waste retention times (21, 23, 25, 29, 33, 39, 47 and 61 days). Phylogenetically coherent populations of methanogens were assessed by 16S rRNA gene next-generation sequencing and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism fingerprinting of a specific molecular marker, the mcrA gene. The results indicated multiple phylogenetically diverse methanogen populations associated with the various steps of anaerobic digestion. The stages of the anaerobic digestion process and waste retention times determine the microbial composition. The most dominant and acclimated microbial communities in all samples belonged to the genera Methanosaeta and Methanobacterium. The methane yield was consistent with the results of the microbial community structure, which indicated that acetotrophic Methanosaeta was the most active and most important during the methanogenic stage.