Least-squares sequential parameter and state estimation for large space structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thau, F. E.; Eliazov, T.; Montgomery, R. C.

1982-01-01

This paper presents the formulation of simultaneous state and parameter estimation problems for flexible structures in terms of least-squares minimization problems. The approach combines an on-line order determination algorithm, with least-squares algorithms for finding estimates of modal approximation functions, modal amplitudes, and modal parameters. The approach combines previous results on separable nonlinear least squares estimation with a regression analysis formulation of the state estimation problem. The technique makes use of sequential Householder transformations. This allows for sequential accumulation of matrices required during the identification process. The technique is used to identify the modal prameters of a flexible beam.

Quantum state estimation when qubits are lost: a no-data-left-behind approach

DOE PAGES

Williams, Brian P.; Lougovski, Pavel

2017-04-06

We present an approach to Bayesian mean estimation of quantum states using hyperspherical parametrization and an experiment-specific likelihood which allows utilization of all available data, even when qubits are lost. With this method, we report the first closed-form Bayesian mean and maximum likelihood estimates for the ideal single qubit. Due to computational constraints, we utilize numerical sampling to determine the Bayesian mean estimate for a photonic two-qubit experiment in which our novel analysis reduces burdens associated with experimental asymmetries and inefficiencies. This method can be applied to quantum states of any dimension and experimental complexity.

Nonlinear estimation theory applied to orbit determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choe, C. Y.

1972-01-01

The development of an approximate nonlinear filter using the Martingale theory and appropriate smoothing properties is considered. Both the first order and the second order moments were estimated. The filter developed can be classified as a modified Gaussian second order filter. Its performance was evaluated in a simulated study of the problem of estimating the state of an interplanetary space vehicle during both a simulated Jupiter flyby and a simulated Jupiter orbiter mission. In addition to the modified Gaussian second order filter, the modified truncated second order filter was also evaluated in the simulated study. Results obtained with each of these filters were compared with numerical results obtained with the extended Kalman filter and the performance of each filter is determined by comparison with the actual estimation errors. The simulations were designed to determine the effects of the second order terms in the dynamic state relations, the observation state relations, and the Kalman gain compensation term. It is shown that the Kalman gain-compensated filter which includes only the Kalman gain compensation term is superior to all of the other filters.

Van der Waals potential and vibrational energy levels of the ground state radon dimer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Xiaowei; Qian, Shifeng; Hu, Fengfei

2017-08-01

In the present paper, the ground state van der Waals potential of the Radon dimer is described by the Tang-Toennies potential model, which requires five essential parameters. Among them, the two dispersion coefficients C6 and C8 are estimated from the well determined dispersion coefficients C6 and C8 of Xe2. C10 is estimated by using the approximation equation that C6C10/C82 has an average value of 1.221 for all the rare gas dimers. With these estimated dispersion coefficients and the well determined well depth De and Re the Born-Mayer parameters A and b are derived. Then the vibrational energy levels of the ground state radon dimer are calculated. 40 vibrational energy levels are observed in the ground state of Rn2 dimer. The last vibrational energy level is bound by only 0.0012 cm-1.

75 FR 61551 - 30-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: DS 4079, Request for Determination of Possible...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-05

... 4079, Request for Determination of Possible Loss of United States Citizenship, (No. 1405-0178) ACTION... Information Collection: Request for Determination of Possible Loss of United States Citizenship. OMB Control... Number of Respondents: 1,132. Estimated Number of Responses: 1,132. Average Hours Per Response: 15...

Toward quantitative estimation of material properties with dynamic mode atomic force microscopy: a comparative study.

PubMed

Ghosal, Sayan; Gannepalli, Anil; Salapaka, Murti

2017-08-11

In this article, we explore methods that enable estimation of material properties with the dynamic mode atomic force microscopy suitable for soft matter investigation. The article presents the viewpoint of casting the system, comprising of a flexure probe interacting with the sample, as an equivalent cantilever system and compares a steady-state analysis based method with a recursive estimation technique for determining the parameters of the equivalent cantilever system in real time. The steady-state analysis of the equivalent cantilever model, which has been implicitly assumed in studies on material property determination, is validated analytically and experimentally. We show that the steady-state based technique yields results that quantitatively agree with the recursive method in the domain of its validity. The steady-state technique is considerably simpler to implement, however, slower compared to the recursive technique. The parameters of the equivalent system are utilized to interpret storage and dissipative properties of the sample. Finally, the article identifies key pitfalls that need to be avoided toward the quantitative estimation of material properties.

Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Parameters in Nonlinear State-Space Models of Biochemical Networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiaodian; Jin, Li; Xiong, Momiao

2008-01-01

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks. PMID:19018286

On the Error State Selection for Stationary SINS Alignment and Calibration Kalman Filters—Part II: Observability/Estimability Analysis

PubMed Central

Silva, Felipe O.; Hemerly, Elder M.; Leite Filho, Waldemar C.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the second part of a study aiming at the error state selection in Kalman filters applied to the stationary self-alignment and calibration (SSAC) problem of strapdown inertial navigation systems (SINS). The observability properties of the system are systematically investigated, and the number of unobservable modes is established. Through the analytical manipulation of the full SINS error model, the unobservable modes of the system are determined, and the SSAC error states (except the velocity errors) are proven to be individually unobservable. The estimability of the system is determined through the examination of the major diagonal terms of the covariance matrix and their eigenvalues/eigenvectors. Filter order reduction based on observability analysis is shown to be inadequate, and several misconceptions regarding SSAC observability and estimability deficiencies are removed. As the main contributions of this paper, we demonstrate that, except for the position errors, all error states can be minimally estimated in the SSAC problem and, hence, should not be removed from the filter. Corroborating the conclusions of the first part of this study, a 12-state Kalman filter is found to be the optimal error state selection for SSAC purposes. Results from simulated and experimental tests support the outlined conclusions. PMID:28241494

A selective-update affine projection algorithm with selective input vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, NamWoong; Shin, JaeWook; Park, PooGyeon

2011-10-01

This paper proposes an affine projection algorithm (APA) with selective input vectors, which based on the concept of selective-update in order to reduce estimation errors and computations. The algorithm consists of two procedures: input- vector-selection and state-decision. The input-vector-selection procedure determines the number of input vectors by checking with mean square error (MSE) whether the input vectors have enough information for update. The state-decision procedure determines the current state of the adaptive filter by using the state-decision criterion. As the adaptive filter is in transient state, the algorithm updates the filter coefficients with the selected input vectors. On the other hand, as soon as the adaptive filter reaches the steady state, the update procedure is not performed. Through these two procedures, the proposed algorithm achieves small steady-state estimation errors, low computational complexity and low update complexity for colored input signals.

Unsteady flow sensing and optimal sensor placement using machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semaan, Richard

2016-11-01

Machine learning is used to estimate the flow state and to determine the optimal sensor placement over a two-dimensional (2D) airfoil equipped with a Coanda actuator. The analysis is based on flow field data obtained from 2D unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (uRANS) simulations with different jet blowing intensities and actuation frequencies, characterizing different flow separation states. This study shows how the "random forests" algorithm is utilized beyond its typical usage in fluid mechanics estimating the flow state to determine the optimal sensor placement. The results are compared against the current de-facto standard of maximum modal amplitude location and against a brute force approach that scans all possible sensor combinations. The results show that it is possible to simultaneously infer the state of flow and to determine the optimal sensor location without the need to perform proper orthogonal decomposition. Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 880, DFG.

20 CFR 614.15 - Payments to States.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... State shall be paid, either in advance or by way of reimbursement, as may be determined by the... been paid to the State. An estimate may be made on the basis of a statistical, sampling, or other...

An Adaptive Orientation Estimation Method for Magnetic and Inertial Sensors in the Presence of Magnetic Disturbances

PubMed Central

Fan, Bingfei; Li, Qingguo; Wang, Chao; Liu, Tao

2017-01-01

Magnetic and inertial sensors have been widely used to estimate the orientation of human segments due to their low cost, compact size and light weight. However, the accuracy of the estimated orientation is easily affected by external factors, especially when the sensor is used in an environment with magnetic disturbances. In this paper, we propose an adaptive method to improve the accuracy of orientation estimations in the presence of magnetic disturbances. The method is based on existing gradient descent algorithms, and it is performed prior to sensor fusion algorithms. The proposed method includes stationary state detection and magnetic disturbance severity determination. The stationary state detection makes this method immune to magnetic disturbances in stationary state, while the magnetic disturbance severity determination helps to determine the credibility of magnetometer data under dynamic conditions, so as to mitigate the negative effect of the magnetic disturbances. The proposed method was validated through experiments performed on a customized three-axis instrumented gimbal with known orientations. The error of the proposed method and the original gradient descent algorithms were calculated and compared. Experimental results demonstrate that in stationary state, the proposed method is completely immune to magnetic disturbances, and in dynamic conditions, the error caused by magnetic disturbance is reduced by 51.2% compared with original MIMU gradient descent algorithm. PMID:28534858

Towards Real-Time Maneuver Detection: Automatic State and Dynamics Estimation with the Adaptive Optimal Control Based Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubey, D.; Scheeres, D.

Tracking objects in Earth orbit is fraught with complications. This is due to the large population of orbiting spacecraft and debris that continues to grow, passive (i.e. no direct communication) and data-sparse observations, and the presence of maneuvers and dynamics mismodeling. Accurate orbit determination in this environment requires an algorithm to capture both a system's state and its state dynamics in order to account for mismodelings. Previous studies by the authors yielded an algorithm called the Optimal Control Based Estimator (OCBE) - an algorithm that simultaneously estimates a system's state and optimal control policies that represent dynamic mismodeling in the system for an arbitrary orbit-observer setup. The stochastic properties of these estimated controls are then used to determine the presence of mismodelings (maneuver detection), as well as characterize and reconstruct the mismodelings. The purpose of this paper is to develop the OCBE into an accurate real-time orbit tracking and maneuver detection algorithm by automating the algorithm and removing its linear assumptions. This results in a nonlinear adaptive estimator. In its original form the OCBE had a parameter called the assumed dynamic uncertainty, which is selected by the user with each new measurement to reflect the level of dynamic mismodeling in the system. This human-in-the-loop approach precludes real-time application to orbit tracking problems due to their complexity. This paper focuses on the Adaptive OCBE, a version of the estimator where the assumed dynamic uncertainty is chosen automatically with each new measurement using maneuver detection results to ensure that state uncertainties are properly adjusted to account for all dynamic mismodelings. The paper also focuses on a nonlinear implementation of the estimator. Originally, the OCBE was derived from a nonlinear cost function then linearized about a nominal trajectory, which is assumed to be ballistic (i.e. the nominal optimal control policy is zero for all times). In this paper, we relax this assumption on the nominal trajectory in order to allow for controlled nominal trajectories. This allows the estimator to be iterated to obtain a more accurate nonlinear solution for both the state and control estimates. Beyond these developments to the estimator, this paper also introduces a modified distance metric for maneuver detection. The original metric used in the OCBE only accounted for the estimated control and its uncertainty. This new metric accounts for measurement deviation and a priori state deviations, such that it accounts for all three major forms of uncertainty in orbit determination. This allows the user to understand the contributions of each source of uncertainty toward the total system mismodeling so that the user can properly account for them. Together these developments create an accurate orbit determination algorithm that is automated, robust to mismodeling, and capable of detecting and reconstructing the presence of mismodeling. These qualities make this algorithm a good foundation from which to approach the problem of real-time maneuver detection and reconstruction for Space Situational Awareness applications. This is further strengthened by the algorithm's general formulation that allows it to be applied to problems with an arbitrary target and observer.

Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, M.E.; Jobson, H.E.

1982-01-01

Mean annual evaporation estimates were determined for 30 lakes by use of a numerical model (Morton, 1979) and by use of an evaporation map prepared by the U.S. Weather Service (Kohler et al., 1959). These estimates were compared to the reported value of evaporation determined from measurements on each lake. Various lengths of observation and methods of measurement were used among the 30 lakes. The evaporation map provides annual evaporation estimates which are more consistent with observations than those determined by use of the numerical model. The map cannot provide monthly estimates, however, and is only available for the contiguous United States. The numerical model can provide monthly estimates for shallow lakes and is based on monthly observations of temperature, humidity, and sunshine duration.

On-line adaptive battery impedance parameter and state estimation considering physical principles in reduced order equivalent circuit battery models. Part 1. Requirements, critical review of methods and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, Christian; Waag, Wladislaw; Heyn, Hans-Martin; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2014-08-01

Lithium-ion battery systems employed in high power demanding systems such as electric vehicles require a sophisticated monitoring system to ensure safe and reliable operation. Three major states of the battery are of special interest and need to be constantly monitored, these include: battery state of charge (SoC), battery state of health (capcity fade determination, SoH), and state of function (power fade determination, SoF). In a series of two papers, we propose a system of algorithms based on a weighted recursive least quadratic squares parameter estimator, that is able to determine the battery impedance and diffusion parameters for accurate state estimation. The functionality was proven on different battery chemistries with different aging conditions. The first paper investigates the general requirements on BMS for HEV/EV applications. In parallel, the commonly used methods for battery monitoring are reviewed to elaborate their strength and weaknesses in terms of the identified requirements for on-line applications. Special emphasis will be placed on real-time capability and memory optimized code for cost-sensitive industrial or automotive applications in which low-cost microcontrollers must be used. Therefore, a battery model is presented which includes the influence of the Butler-Volmer kinetics on the charge-transfer process. Lastly, the mass transport process inside the battery is modeled in a novel state-space representation.

Estimating the breeding population of long-billed curlew in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Skagen, S.K.

2007-01-01

Determining population size and long-term trends in population size for species of high concern is a priority of international, national, and regional conservation plans. Long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) are a species of special concern in North America due to apparent declines in their population. Because long-billed curlews are not adequately monitored by existing programs, we undertook a 2-year study with the goals of 1) determining present long-billed curlew distribution and breeding population size in the United States and 2) providing recommendations for a long-term long-billed curlew monitoring protocol. We selected a stratified random sample of survey routes in 16 western states for sampling in 2004 and 2005, and we analyzed count data from these routes to estimate detection probabilities and abundance. In addition, we evaluated habitat along roadsides to determine how well roadsides represented habitat throughout the sampling units. We estimated there were 164,515 (SE = 42,047) breeding long-billed curlews in 2004, and 109,533 (SE = 31,060) breeding individuals in 2005. These estimates far exceed currently accepted estimates based on expert opinion. We found that habitat along roadsides was representative of long-billed curlew habitat in general. We make recommendations for improving sampling methodology, and we present power curves to provide guidance on minimum sample sizes required to detect trends in abundance.

Attitude determination and parameter estimation using vector observations - Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis

1989-01-01

Procedures for attitude determination based on Wahba's loss function are generalized to include the estimation of parameters other than the attitude, such as sensor biases. Optimization with respect to the attitude is carried out using the q-method, which does not require an a priori estimate of the attitude. Optimization with respect to the other parameters employs an iterative approach, which does require an a priori estimate of these parameters. Conventional state estimation methods require a priori estimates of both the parameters and the attitude, while the algorithm presented in this paper always computes the exact optimal attitude for given values of the parameters. Expressions for the covariance of the attitude and parameter estimates are derived.

Accurate Initial State Estimation in a Monocular Visual–Inertial SLAM System

PubMed Central

Chen, Jing; Zhou, Zixiang; Leng, Zhen; Fan, Lei

2018-01-01

The fusion of monocular visual and inertial cues has become popular in robotics, unmanned vehicles and augmented reality fields. Recent results have shown that optimization-based fusion strategies outperform filtering strategies. Robust state estimation is the core capability for optimization-based visual–inertial Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) systems. As a result of the nonlinearity of visual–inertial systems, the performance heavily relies on the accuracy of initial values (visual scale, gravity, velocity and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) biases). Therefore, this paper aims to propose a more accurate initial state estimation method. On the basis of the known gravity magnitude, we propose an approach to refine the estimated gravity vector by optimizing the two-dimensional (2D) error state on its tangent space, then estimate the accelerometer bias separately, which is difficult to be distinguished under small rotation. Additionally, we propose an automatic termination criterion to determine when the initialization is successful. Once the initial state estimation converges, the initial estimated values are used to launch the nonlinear tightly coupled visual–inertial SLAM system. We have tested our approaches with the public EuRoC dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed methods can achieve good initial state estimation, the gravity refinement approach is able to efficiently speed up the convergence process of the estimated gravity vector, and the termination criterion performs well. PMID:29419751

Determination of continuous variable entanglement by purity measurements.

PubMed

Adesso, Gerardo; Serafini, Alessio; Illuminati, Fabrizio

2004-02-27

We classify the entanglement of two-mode Gaussian states according to their degree of total and partial mixedness. We derive exact bounds that determine maximally and minimally entangled states for fixed global and marginal purities. This characterization allows for an experimentally reliable estimate of continuous variable entanglement based on measurements of purity.

Spatial patterns of ecosystem carbon residence time and NPP-driven carbon uptake in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tao; Luo, Yiqi

2008-09-01

Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake is determined largely by C residence times and increases in net primary production (NPP). Therefore, evaluation of C uptake at a regional scale requires knowledge on spatial patterns of both residence times and NPP increases. In this study, we first applied an inverse modeling method to estimate spatial patterns of C residence times in the conterminous United States. Then we combined the spatial patterns of estimated residence times with a NPP change trend to assess the spatial patterns of regional C uptake in the United States. The inverse analysis was done by using the genetic algorithm and was based on 12 observed data sets of C pools and fluxes. Residence times were estimated by minimizing the total deviation between modeled and observed values. Our results showed that the estimated C residence times were highly heterogeneous over the conterminous United States, with most of the regions having values between 15 and 65 years; and the averaged C residence time was 46 years. The estimated C uptake for the whole conterminous United States was 0.15 P g C a-1. Large portions of the taken C were stored in soil for grassland and cropland (47-70%) but in plant pools for forests and woodlands (73-82%). The proportion of C uptake in soil was found to be determined primarily by C residence times and be independent of the magnitude of NPP increase. Therefore, accurate estimation of spatial patterns of C residence times is crucial for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem C uptake.

Estimating State-Specific Contributions to PM2.5- and O3-Related Health Burden from Residential Combustion and Electricity Generating Unit Emissions in the United States.

PubMed

Penn, Stefani L; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Woody, Matthew; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Tripodis, Yorghos; Levy, Jonathan I

2017-03-01

Residential combustion (RC) and electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions adversely impact air quality and human health by increasing ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ). Studies to date have not isolated contributing emissions by state of origin (source-state), which is necessary for policy makers to determine efficient strategies to decrease health impacts. In this study, we aimed to estimate health impacts (premature mortalities) attributable to PM 2.5 and O 3 from RC and EGU emissions by precursor species, source sector, and source-state in the continental United States for 2005. We used the Community Multiscale Air Quality model employing the decoupled direct method to quantify changes in air quality and epidemiological evidence to determine concentration-response functions to calculate associated health impacts. We estimated 21,000 premature mortalities per year from EGU emissions, driven by sulfur dioxide emissions forming PM 2.5 . More than half of EGU health impacts are attributable to emissions from eight states with significant coal combustion and large downwind populations. We estimate 10,000 premature mortalities per year from RC emissions, driven by primary PM 2.5 emissions. States with large populations and significant residential wood combustion dominate RC health impacts. Annual mortality risk per thousand tons of precursor emissions (health damage functions) varied significantly across source-states for both source sectors and all precursor pollutants. Our findings reinforce the importance of pollutant-specific, location-specific, and source-specific models of health impacts in design of health-risk minimizing emissions control policies. Citation: Penn SL, Arunachalam S, Woody M, Heiger-Bernays W, Tripodis Y, Levy JI. 2017. Estimating state-specific contributions to PM 2.5 - and O 3 -related health burden from residential combustion and electricity generating unit emissions in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:324-332; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP550.

Utility Estimates of Disease-Specific Health States in Prostate Cancer from Three Different Perspectives.

PubMed

Gries, Katharine S; Regier, Dean A; Ramsey, Scott D; Patrick, Donald L

2017-06-01

To develop a statistical model generating utility estimates for prostate cancer specific health states, using preference weights derived from the perspectives of prostate cancer patients, men at risk for prostate cancer, and society. Utility estimate values were calculated using standard gamble (SG) methodology. Study participants valued 18 prostate-specific health states with the five attributes: sexual function, urinary function, bowel function, pain, and emotional well-being. Appropriateness of model (linear regression, mixed effects, or generalized estimating equation) to generate prostate cancer utility estimates was determined by paired t-tests to compare observed and predicted values. Mixed-corrected standard SG utility estimates to account for loss aversion were calculated based on prospect theory. 132 study participants assigned values to the health states (n = 40 men at risk for prostate cancer; n = 43 men with prostate cancer; n = 49 general population). In total, 792 valuations were elicited (six health states for each 132 participants). The most appropriate model for the classification system was a mixed effects model; correlations between the mean observed and predicted utility estimates were greater than 0.80 for each perspective. Developing a health-state classification system with preference weights for three different perspectives demonstrates the relative importance of main effects between populations. The predicted values for men with prostate cancer support the hypothesis that patients experiencing the disease state assign higher utility estimates to health states and there is a difference in valuations made by patients and the general population.

Soybean Crop Area Estimation and Mapping in Mato Grosso State, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusso, A.; Ducati, J. R.

2012-07-01

Evaluation of the MODIS Crop Detection Algorithm (MCDA) procedure for estimating historical planted soybean crop areas was done on fields in Mato Grosso State, Brazil. MCDA is based on temporal profiles of EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived from satellite data of the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imager, and was previously developed for soybean area estimation in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. According to the MCDA approach, in Mato Grosso soybean area estimates can be provided in December (1st forecast), using images from the sowing period, and in February (2nd forecast), using images from sowing and maximum crop development period. The results obtained by the MCDA were compared with Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) official estimates of soybean area at municipal level. Coefficients of determination were between 0.93 and 0.98, indicating a good agreement, and also the suitability of MCDA to estimations performed in Mato Grosso State. On average, the MCDA results explained 96% of the variation of the data estimated by the IBGE. In this way, MCDA calibration was able to provide annual thematic soybean maps, forecasting the planted area in the State, with results which are comparable to the official agricultural statistics.

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Generalized Processing Tree Models: Jointly Modeling Discrete and Continuous Variables.

PubMed

Heck, Daniel W; Erdfelder, Edgar; Kieslich, Pascal J

2018-05-24

Multinomial processing tree models assume that discrete cognitive states determine observed response frequencies. Generalized processing tree (GPT) models extend this conceptual framework to continuous variables such as response times, process-tracing measures, or neurophysiological variables. GPT models assume finite-mixture distributions, with weights determined by a processing tree structure, and continuous components modeled by parameterized distributions such as Gaussians with separate or shared parameters across states. We discuss identifiability, parameter estimation, model testing, a modeling syntax, and the improved precision of GPT estimates. Finally, a GPT version of the feature comparison model of semantic categorization is applied to computer-mouse trajectories.

A systematic evaluation of different methods for calculating adolescent vaccination levels using immunization information system data.

PubMed

Gowda, Charitha; Dong, Shiming; Potter, Rachel C; Dombkowski, Kevin J; Stokley, Shannon; Dempsey, Amanda F

2013-01-01

Immunization information systems (IISs) are valuable surveillance tools; however, population relocation may introduce bias when determining immunization coverage. We explored alternative methods for estimating the vaccine-eligible population when calculating adolescent immunization levels using a statewide IIS. We performed a retrospective analysis of the Michigan State Care Improvement Registry (MCIR) for all adolescents aged 11-18 years registered in the MCIR as of October 2010. We explored four methods for determining denominators: (1) including all adolescents with MCIR records, (2) excluding adolescents with out-of-state residence, (3) further excluding those without MCIR activity ≥ 10 years prior to the evaluation date, and (4) using a denominator based on U.S. Census data. We estimated state- and county-specific coverage levels for four adolescent vaccines. We found a 20% difference in estimated vaccination coverage between the most inclusive and restrictive denominator populations. Although there was some variability among the four methods in vaccination at the state level (2%-11%), greater variation occurred at the county level (up to 21%). This variation was substantial enough to potentially impact public health assessments of immunization programs. Generally, vaccines with higher coverage levels had greater absolute variation, as did counties with smaller populations. At the county level, using the four denominator calculation methods resulted in substantial differences in estimated adolescent immunization rates that were less apparent when aggregated at the state level. Further research is needed to ascertain the most appropriate method for estimating vaccine coverage levels using IIS data.

In-State Tuition Policies for Undocumented Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vargas, Edward D.

2011-01-01

This article is an investigation into why U.S. states have enacted, banned, or continued with the status quo regarding in-state tuition policies for unauthorized youth. Using data from multiple government and nonprofit sources, a series of multinomial logistic regressions are estimated to explain the determinants of state behavior across the…

Improved accuracy of aboveground biomass and carbon estimates for live trees in forests of the eastern United States

Treesearch

Philip Radtke; David Walker; Jereme Frank; Aaron Weiskittel; Clara DeYoung; David MacFarlane; Grant Domke; Christopher Woodall; John Coulston; James Westfall

2017-01-01

Accurate estimation of forest biomass and carbon stocks at regional to national scales is a key requirement in determining terrestrial carbon sources and sinks on United States (US) forest lands. To that end, comprehensive assessment and testing of alternative volume and biomass models were conducted for individual tree models employed in the component ratio method (...

The MAP Spacecraft Angular State Estimation After Sensor Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.; Harman, Richard R.

2003-01-01

This work describes two algorithms for computing the angular rate and attitude in case of a gyro and a Star Tracker failure in the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) satellite, which was placed in the L2 parking point from where it collects data to determine the origin of the universe. The nature of the problem is described, two algorithms are suggested, an observability study is carried out and real MAP data are used to determine the merit of the algorithms. It is shown that one of the algorithms yields a good estimate of the rates but not of the attitude whereas the other algorithm yields a good estimate of the rate as well as two of the three attitude angles. The estimation of the third angle depends on the initial state estimate. There is a contradiction between this result and the outcome of the observability analysis. An explanation of this contradiction is given in the paper. Although this work treats a particular spacecraft, the conclusions have a far reaching consequence.

Quantum Entanglement of Matter and Geometry in Large Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, Craig J.

2014-12-04

Standard quantum mechanics and gravity are used to estimate the mass and size of idealized gravitating systems where position states of matter and geometry become indeterminate. It is proposed that well-known inconsistencies of standard quantum field theory with general relativity on macroscopic scales can be reconciled by nonstandard, nonlocal entanglement of field states with quantum states of geometry. Wave functions of particle world lines are used to estimate scales of geometrical entanglement and emergent locality. Simple models of entanglement predict coherent fluctuations in position of massive bodies, of Planck scale origin, measurable on a laboratory scale, and may account formore » the fact that the information density of long lived position states in Standard Model fields, which is determined by the strong interactions, is the same as that determined holographically by the cosmological constant.« less

Application of wavelet-based multi-model Kalman filters to real-time flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Chien-Ming; Wang, Ru-Yih

2004-04-01

This paper presents the application of a multimodel method using a wavelet-based Kalman filter (WKF) bank to simultaneously estimate decomposed state variables and unknown parameters for real-time flood forecasting. Applying the Haar wavelet transform alters the state vector and input vector of the state space. In this way, an overall detail plus approximation describes each new state vector and input vector, which allows the WKF to simultaneously estimate and decompose state variables. The wavelet-based multimodel Kalman filter (WMKF) is a multimodel Kalman filter (MKF), in which the Kalman filter has been substituted for a WKF. The WMKF then obtains M estimated state vectors. Next, the M state-estimates, each of which is weighted by its possibility that is also determined on-line, are combined to form an optimal estimate. Validations conducted for the Wu-Tu watershed, a small watershed in Taiwan, have demonstrated that the method is effective because of the decomposition of wavelet transform, the adaptation of the time-varying Kalman filter and the characteristics of the multimodel method. Validation results also reveal that the resulting method enhances the accuracy of the runoff prediction of the rainfall-runoff process in the Wu-Tu watershed.

Fault Management Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Stephen B.; Ghoshal, Sudipto; Haste, Deepak; Moore, Craig

2017-01-01

This paper describes the theory and considerations in the application of metrics to measure the effectiveness of fault management. Fault management refers here to the operational aspect of system health management, and as such is considered as a meta-control loop that operates to preserve or maximize the system's ability to achieve its goals in the face of current or prospective failure. As a suite of control loops, the metrics to estimate and measure the effectiveness of fault management are similar to those of classical control loops in being divided into two major classes: state estimation, and state control. State estimation metrics can be classified into lower-level subdivisions for detection coverage, detection effectiveness, fault isolation and fault identification (diagnostics), and failure prognosis. State control metrics can be classified into response determination effectiveness and response effectiveness. These metrics are applied to each and every fault management control loop in the system, for each failure to which they apply, and probabilistically summed to determine the effectiveness of these fault management control loops to preserve the relevant system goals that they are intended to protect.

Estimation of annual average daily traffic for off-system roads in Florida

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-28

Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is extremely important in traffic planning and operations for the state departments of transportation (DOTs), because AADT provides information for the planning of new road construction, determination...

Estimating short-run and long-run interaction mechanisms in interictal state.

PubMed

Ozkaya, Ata; Korürek, Mehmet

2010-04-01

We address the issue of analyzing electroencephalogram (EEG) from seizure patients in order to test, model and determine the statistical properties that distinguish between EEG states (interictal, pre-ictal, ictal) by introducing a new class of time series analysis methods. In the present study: firstly, we employ statistical methods to determine the non-stationary behavior of focal interictal epileptiform series within very short time intervals; secondly, for such intervals that are deemed non-stationary we suggest the concept of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) process modelling, well known in time series analysis. We finally address the queries of causal relationships between epileptic states and between brain areas during epileptiform activity. We estimate the interaction between different EEG series (channels) in short time intervals by performing Granger-causality analysis and also estimate such interaction in long time intervals by employing Cointegration analysis, both analysis methods are well-known in econometrics. Here we find: first, that the causal relationship between neuronal assemblies can be identified according to the duration and the direction of their possible mutual influences; second, that although the estimated bidirectional causality in short time intervals yields that the neuronal ensembles positively affect each other, in long time intervals neither of them is affected (increasing amplitudes) from this relationship. Moreover, Cointegration analysis of the EEG series enables us to identify whether there is a causal link from the interictal state to ictal state.

An Automated Technique for Estimating Daily Precipitation over the State of Virginia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Follansbee, W. A.; Chamberlain, L. W., III

1981-01-01

Digital IR and visible imagery obtained from a geostationary satellite located over the equator at 75 deg west latitude were provided by NASA and used to obtain a linear relationship between cloud top temperature and hourly precipitation. Two computer programs written in FORTRAN were used. The first program computes the satellite estimate field from the hourly digital IR imagery. The second program computes the final estimate for the entire state area by comparing five preliminary estimates of 24 hour precipitation with control raingage readings and determining which of the five methods gives the best estimate for the day. The final estimate is then produced by incorporating control gage readings into the winning method. In presenting reliable precipitation estimates for every cell in Virginia in near real time on a daily on going basis, the techniques require on the order of 125 to 150 daily gage readings by dependable, highly motivated observers distributed as uniformly as feasible across the state.

Method of Enhancing On-Board State Estimation Using Communication Signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anzalone, Evan J. (Inventor); Chuang, Jason C. H. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A method of enhancing on-board state estimation for a spacecraft utilizes a network of assets to include planetary-based assets and space-based assets. Communication signals transmitted from each of the assets into space are defined by a common protocol. Data is embedded in each communication signal transmitted by the assets. The data includes a time-of-transmission for a corresponding one of the communication signals and a position of a corresponding one of the assets at the time-of-transmission. A spacecraft is equipped to receive the communication signals, has a clock synchronized to the space-wide time reference frame, and has a processor programmed to generate state estimates of the spacecraft. Using its processor, the spacecraft determines a one-dimensional range from itself to at least one of the assets and then updates its state estimates using each one-dimensional range.

Advantages of estimating rate corrections during dynamic propagation of spacecraft rates: Applications to real-time attitude determination of SAMPEX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Challa, M. S.; Natanson, G. A.; Baker, D. F.; Deutschmann, J. K.

1994-01-01

This paper describes real-time attitude determination results for the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX), a gyroless spacecraft, using a Kalman filter/Euler equation approach denoted the real-time sequential filter (RTSF). The RTSF is an extended Kalman filter whose state vector includes the attitude quaternion and corrections to the rates, which are modeled as Markov processes with small time constants. The rate corrections impart a significant robustness to the RTSF against errors in modeling the environmental and control torques, as well as errors in the initial attitude and rates, while maintaining a small state vector. SAMPLEX flight data from various mission phases are used to demonstrate the robustness of the RTSF against a priori attitude and rate errors of up to 90 deg and 0.5 deg/sec, respectively, as well as a sensitivity of 0.0003 deg/sec in estimating rate corrections in torque computations. In contrast, it is shown that the RTSF attitude estimates without the rate corrections can degrade rapidly. RTSF advantages over single-frame attitude determination algorithms are also demonstrated through (1) substantial improvements in attitude solutions during sun-magnetic field coalignment and (2) magnetic-field-only attitude and rate estimation during the spacecraft's sun-acquisition mode. A robust magnetometer-only attitude-and-rate determination method is also developed to provide for the contingency when both sun data as well as a priori knowledge of the spacecraft state are unavailable. This method includes a deterministic algorithm used to initialize the RTSF with coarse estimates of the spacecraft attitude and rates. The combined algorithm has been found effective, yielding accuracies of 1.5 deg in attitude and 0.01 deg/sec in the rates and convergence times as little as 400 sec.

Sequential Monte Carlo filter for state estimation of LiFePO4 batteries based on an online updated model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiahao; Klee Barillas, Joaquin; Guenther, Clemens; Danzer, Michael A.

2014-02-01

Battery state monitoring is one of the key techniques in battery management systems e.g. in electric vehicles. An accurate estimation can help to improve the system performance and to prolong the battery remaining useful life. Main challenges for the state estimation for LiFePO4 batteries are the flat characteristic of open-circuit-voltage over battery state of charge (SOC) and the existence of hysteresis phenomena. Classical estimation approaches like Kalman filtering show limitations to handle nonlinear and non-Gaussian error distribution problems. In addition, uncertainties in the battery model parameters must be taken into account to describe the battery degradation. In this paper, a novel model-based method combining a Sequential Monte Carlo filter with adaptive control to determine the cell SOC and its electric impedance is presented. The applicability of this dual estimator is verified using measurement data acquired from a commercial LiFePO4 cell. Due to a better handling of the hysteresis problem, results show the benefits of the proposed method against the estimation with an Extended Kalman filter.

Population size and winter distribution of eastern American oystercatchers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, S.C.; Schulte, Shiloh A.; Harrington, B.; Winn, Brad; Bart, J.; Howe, M.

2005-01-01

Conservation of the eastern subspecies of the American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus palliatus) is a high priority in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, but previous population estimates were unreliable, information on distribution and habitat associations during winter was incomplete, and methods for long-term monitoring had not been developed prior to this survey. We completed the aerial survey proposed in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan to determine population size, winter distribution, and habitat associations. We conducted coastal aerial surveys from New Jersey to Texas during November 2002 to February 2003. This area comprised the entire wintering range of the eastern American oystercatcher within the United States. Surveys covered all suitable habitat in the United States for the subspecies, partitioned into 3 survey strata: known roost sites, high-use habitat, and inter-coastal tidal habitat. We determined known roost sites from extensive consultation with biologists and local experts in each state. High-use habitat included sand islands, sand spits at inlets, shell rakes, and oyster reefs. Partner organizations conducted ground counts in most states. We used high resolution still photography to determine detection rates for estimates of the number of birds in particular flocks, and we used ground counts to determine detection rates of flocks. Using a combination of ground and aerial counts, we estimated the population of eastern American oystercatchers to be 10,971 +/- 298. Aerial surveys can serve an important management function for shorebirds and possibly other coastal waterbirds by providing population status and trend information across a wide geographic scale.

A unifying view of synchronization for data assimilation in complex nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Shirman, Sasha; Breen, Daniel; Kadakia, Nirag; Rey, Daniel; Armstrong, Eve; Margoliash, Daniel

2017-12-01

Networks of nonlinear systems contain unknown parameters and dynamical degrees of freedom that may not be observable with existing instruments. From observable state variables, we want to estimate the connectivity of a model of such a network and determine the full state of the model at the termination of a temporal observation window during which measurements transfer information to a model of the network. The model state at the termination of a measurement window acts as an initial condition for predicting the future behavior of the network. This allows the validation (or invalidation) of the model as a representation of the dynamical processes producing the observations. Once the model has been tested against new data, it may be utilized as a predictor of responses to innovative stimuli or forcing. We describe a general framework for the tasks involved in the "inverse" problem of determining properties of a model built to represent measured output from physical, biological, or other processes when the measurements are noisy, the model has errors, and the state of the model is unknown when measurements begin. This framework is called statistical data assimilation and is the best one can do in estimating model properties through the use of the conditional probability distributions of the model state variables, conditioned on observations. There is a very broad arena of applications of the methods described. These include numerical weather prediction, properties of nonlinear electrical circuitry, and determining the biophysical properties of functional networks of neurons. Illustrative examples will be given of (1) estimating the connectivity among neurons with known dynamics in a network of unknown connectivity, and (2) estimating the biophysical properties of individual neurons in vitro taken from a functional network underlying vocalization in songbirds.

Determination of the optimal level for combining area and yield estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, M. E. (Principal Investigator); Hixson, M. M.; Jobusch, C. D.

1981-01-01

Several levels of obtaining both area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans in Iowa were considered: county, refined strata, refined/split strata, crop reporting district, and state. Using the CCEA model form and smoothed weather data, regression coefficients at each level were derived to compute yield and its variance. Variances were also computed with stratum level. The variance of the yield estimates was largest at the state and smallest at the county level for both crops. The refined strata had somewhat larger variances than those associated with the refined/split strata and CRD. For production estimates, the difference in standard deviations among levels was not large for corn, but for soybeans the standard deviation at the state level was more than 50% greater than for the other levels. The refined strata had the smallest standard deviations. The county level was not considered in evaluation of production estimates due to lack of county area variances.

A Systematic Evaluation of Different Methods for Calculating Adolescent Vaccination Levels Using Immunization Information System Data

PubMed Central

Gowda, Charitha; Dong, Shiming; Potter, Rachel C.; Dombkowski, Kevin J.; Stokley, Shannon

2013-01-01

Objective Immunization information systems (IISs) are valuable surveillance tools; however, population relocation may introduce bias when determining immunization coverage. We explored alternative methods for estimating the vaccine-eligible population when calculating adolescent immunization levels using a statewide IIS. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of the Michigan State Care Improvement Registry (MCIR) for all adolescents aged 11–18 years registered in the MCIR as of October 2010. We explored four methods for determining denominators: (1) including all adolescents with MCIR records, (2) excluding adolescents with out-of-state residence, (3) further excluding those without MCIR activity ≥10 years prior to the evaluation date, and (4) using a denominator based on U.S. Census data. We estimated state- and county-specific coverage levels for four adolescent vaccines. Results We found a 20% difference in estimated vaccination coverage between the most inclusive and restrictive denominator populations. Although there was some variability among the four methods in vaccination at the state level (2%–11%), greater variation occurred at the county level (up to 21%). This variation was substantial enough to potentially impact public health assessments of immunization programs. Generally, vaccines with higher coverage levels had greater absolute variation, as did counties with smaller populations. Conclusion At the county level, using the four denominator calculation methods resulted in substantial differences in estimated adolescent immunization rates that were less apparent when aggregated at the state level. Further research is needed to ascertain the most appropriate method for estimating vaccine coverage levels using IIS data. PMID:24179260

Determination of power system component parameters using nonlinear dead beat estimation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolluru, Lakshmi

Power systems are considered the most complex man-made wonders in existence today. In order to effectively supply the ever increasing demands of the consumers, power systems are required to remain stable at all times. Stability and monitoring of these complex systems are achieved by strategically placed computerized control centers. State and parameter estimation is an integral part of these facilities, as they deal with identifying the unknown states and/or parameters of the systems. Advancements in measurement technologies and the introduction of phasor measurement units (PMU) provide detailed and dynamic information of all measurements. Accurate availability of dynamic measurements provides engineers the opportunity to expand and explore various possibilities in power system dynamic analysis/control. This thesis discusses the development of a parameter determination algorithm for nonlinear power systems, using dynamic data obtained from local measurements. The proposed algorithm was developed by observing the dead beat estimator used in state space estimation of linear systems. The dead beat estimator is considered to be very effective as it is capable of obtaining the required results in a fixed number of steps. The number of steps required is related to the order of the system and the number of parameters to be estimated. The proposed algorithm uses the idea of dead beat estimator and nonlinear finite difference methods to create an algorithm which is user friendly and can determine the parameters fairly accurately and effectively. The proposed algorithm is based on a deterministic approach, which uses dynamic data and mathematical models of power system components to determine the unknown parameters. The effectiveness of the algorithm is tested by implementing it to identify the unknown parameters of a synchronous machine. MATLAB environment is used to create three test cases for dynamic analysis of the system with assumed known parameters. Faults are introduced in the virtual test systems and the dynamic data obtained in each case is analyzed and recorded. Ideally, actual measurements are to be provided to the algorithm. As the measurements are not readily available the data obtained from simulations is fed into the determination algorithm as inputs. The obtained results are then compared to the original (or assumed) values of the parameters. The results obtained suggest that the algorithm is able to determine the parameters of a synchronous machine when crisp data is available.

Preliminary Orbit Determination System (PODS) for Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-tracked target Spacecraft using the homotopy continuation method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschner, S. M.; Samii, M. V.; Broaddus, S. R.; Doll, C. E.

1988-01-01

The Preliminary Orbit Determination System (PODS) provides early orbit determination capability in the Trajectory Computation and Orbital Products System (TCOPS) for a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-tracked spacecraft. PODS computes a set of orbit states from an a priori estimate and six tracking measurements, consisting of any combination of TDRSS range and Doppler tracking measurements. PODS uses the homotopy continuation method to solve a set of nonlinear equations, and it is particularly effective for the case when the a priori estimate is not well known. Since range and Doppler measurements produce multiple states in PODS, a screening technique selects the desired state. PODS is executed in the TCOPS environment and can directly access all operational data sets. At the completion of the preliminary orbit determination, the PODS-generated state, along with additional tracking measurements, can be directly input to the differential correction (DC) process to generate an improved state. To validate the computational and operational capabilities of PODS, tests were performed using simulated TDRSS tracking measurements for the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite and using real TDRSS measurements for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) spacecraft. The effects of various measurement combinations, varying arc lengths, and levels of degradation of the a priori state vector on the PODS solutions were considered.

Mapping Air Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Michael P.; Hunt, Paul; Weiß, Konrad

2018-05-01

"Air population" refers to the total number of people flying above the earth at any point in time. The total number of passengers can then be estimated by multiplying the number of seats for each aircraft by the current seat occupancy rate. Using this method, the estimated air population is determined by state for the airspace over the United States. In the interactive, real-time mapping system, maps are provided to show total air population, the density of air population (air population / area of state), and the ratio of air population to ground population.

Potentially Preventable Deaths Among the Five Leading Causes of Death - United States, 2010 and 2014.

PubMed

García, Macarena C; Bastian, Brigham; Rossen, Lauren M; Anderson, Robert; Miniño, Arialdi; Yoon, Paula W; Faul, Mark; Massetti, Greta; Thomas, Cheryll C; Hong, Yuling; Iademarco, Michael F

2016-11-18

Death rates by specific causes vary across the 50 states and the District of Columbia.* Information on differences in rates for the leading causes of death among states might help state health officials determine prevention goals, priorities, and strategies. CDC analyzed National Vital Statistics System data to provide national and state-specific estimates of potentially preventable deaths among the five leading causes of death in 2014 and compared these estimates with estimates previously published for 2010. Compared with 2010, the estimated number of potentially preventable deaths changed (supplemental material at https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/42472); cancer deaths decreased 25% (from 84,443 to 63,209), stroke deaths decreased 11% (from 16,973 to 15,175), heart disease deaths decreased 4% (from 91,757 to 87,950), chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) (e.g., asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema) deaths increased 1% (from 28,831 to 29,232), and deaths from unintentional injuries increased 23% (from 36,836 to 45,331). A better understanding of progress made in reducing potentially preventable deaths in the United States might inform state and regional efforts targeting the prevention of premature deaths from the five leading causes in the United States.

Efficient Methods of Estimating Switchgrass Biomass Supplies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is being developed as a biofuel feedstock for the United States. Efficient and accurate methods to estimate switchgrass biomass feedstock supply within a production area will be required by biorefineries. Our main objective was to determine the effectiveness of in...

Methods for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Aquaculture in the United States, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelace, John K.

2009-01-01

Aquaculture water use is associated with raising organisms that live in water - such as finfish and shellfish - for food, restoration, conservation, or sport. Aquaculture production occurs under controlled feeding, sanitation, and harvesting procedures primarily in ponds, flow-through raceways, and, to a lesser extent, cages, net pens, and tanks. Aquaculture ponds, raceways, and tanks usually require the withdrawal or diversion of water from a ground or surface source. Most water withdrawn or diverted for aquaculture production is used to maintain pond levels and/or water quality. Water typically is added for maintenance of levels, oxygenation, temperature control, and flushing of wastes. This report documents methods used to estimate withdrawals of fresh ground water and surface water for aqua-culture in 2005 for each county and county-equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands by using aquaculture statistics and estimated water-use coefficients and water-replacement rates. County-level data for commercial and noncommercial operations compiled for the 2005 Census of Aquaculture were obtained from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Withdrawals of water used at commercial and noncommercial operations for aquaculture ponds, raceways, tanks, egg incubators, and pens and cages for alligators were estimated and totaled by ground-water or surface-water source for each county and county equivalent. Use of the methods described in this report, when measured or reported data are unavailable, could result in more consistent water-withdrawal estimates for aquaculture that can be used by water managers and planners to determine water needs and trends across the United States. The results of this study were distributed to U.S. Geological Survey water-use personnel in each State during 2007. Water-use personnel are required to submit estimated withdrawals for all categories of use in their State to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Use Information Program for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. Water-use personnel had the option of submitting the estimates determined by using the methods described in this report, a modified version of these estimates, their own set of estimates, or reported data for the aquaculture category. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the method described in this report are not presented herein to avoid potential inconsistencies with estimated withdrawals for aquaculture that will be presented in the national report, as different methods used by water-use personnel may result in different withdrawal estimates. Estimated withdrawals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of confidential information for individual aquaculture operations.

State-Space Estimation of Soil Organic Carbon Stock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunwole, Joshua O.; Timm, Luis C.; Obidike-Ugwu, Evelyn O.; Gabriels, Donald M.

2014-04-01

Understanding soil spatial variability and identifying soil parameters most determinant to soil organic carbon stock is pivotal to precision in ecological modelling, prediction, estimation and management of soil within a landscape. This study investigates and describes field soil variability and its structural pattern for agricultural management decisions. The main aim was to relate variation in soil organic carbon stock to soil properties and to estimate soil organic carbon stock from the soil properties. A transect sampling of 100 points at 3 m intervals was carried out. Soils were sampled and analyzed for soil organic carbon and other selected soil properties along with determination of dry aggregate and water-stable aggregate fractions. Principal component analysis, geostatistics, and state-space analysis were conducted on the analyzed soil properties. The first three principal components explained 53.2% of the total variation; Principal Component 1 was dominated by soil exchange complex and dry sieved macroaggregates clusters. Exponential semivariogram model described the structure of soil organic carbon stock with a strong dependence indicating that soil organic carbon values were correlated up to 10.8m.Neighbouring values of soil organic carbon stock, all waterstable aggregate fractions, and dithionite and pyrophosphate iron gave reliable estimate of soil organic carbon stock by state-space.

Estimating State-Specific Contributions to PM2.5- and O3-Related Health Burden from Residential Combustion and Electricity Generating Unit Emissions in the United States

PubMed Central

Penn, Stefani L.; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Woody, Matthew; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Tripodis, Yorghos; Levy, Jonathan I.

2016-01-01

Background: Residential combustion (RC) and electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions adversely impact air quality and human health by increasing ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Studies to date have not isolated contributing emissions by state of origin (source-state), which is necessary for policy makers to determine efficient strategies to decrease health impacts. Objectives: In this study, we aimed to estimate health impacts (premature mortalities) attributable to PM2.5 and O3 from RC and EGU emissions by precursor species, source sector, and source-state in the continental United States for 2005. Methods: We used the Community Multiscale Air Quality model employing the decoupled direct method to quantify changes in air quality and epidemiological evidence to determine concentration–response functions to calculate associated health impacts. Results: We estimated 21,000 premature mortalities per year from EGU emissions, driven by sulfur dioxide emissions forming PM2.5. More than half of EGU health impacts are attributable to emissions from eight states with significant coal combustion and large downwind populations. We estimate 10,000 premature mortalities per year from RC emissions, driven by primary PM2.5 emissions. States with large populations and significant residential wood combustion dominate RC health impacts. Annual mortality risk per thousand tons of precursor emissions (health damage functions) varied significantly across source-states for both source sectors and all precursor pollutants. Conclusions: Our findings reinforce the importance of pollutant-specific, location-specific, and source-specific models of health impacts in design of health-risk minimizing emissions control policies. Citation: Penn SL, Arunachalam S, Woody M, Heiger-Bernays W, Tripodis Y, Levy JI. 2017. Estimating state-specific contributions to PM2.5- and O3-related health burden from residential combustion and electricity generating unit emissions in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:324–332; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP550 PMID:27586513

Excited-State Effective Masses in Lattice QCD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George Fleming, Saul Cohen, Huey-Wen Lin

2009-10-01

We apply black-box methods, i.e. where the performance of the method does not depend upon initial guesses, to extract excited-state energies from Euclidean-time hadron correlation functions. In particular, we extend the widely used effective-mass method to incorporate multiple correlation functions and produce effective mass estimates for multiple excited states. In general, these excited-state effective masses will be determined by finding the roots of some polynomial. We demonstrate the method using sample lattice data to determine excited-state energies of the nucleon and compare the results to other energy-level finding techniques.

Input Forces Estimation for Nonlinear Systems by Applying a Square-Root Cubature Kalman Filter.

PubMed

Song, Xuegang; Zhang, Yuexin; Liang, Dakai

2017-10-10

This work presents a novel inverse algorithm to estimate time-varying input forces in nonlinear beam systems. With the system parameters determined, the input forces can be estimated in real-time from dynamic responses, which can be used for structural health monitoring. In the process of input forces estimation, the Runge-Kutta fourth-order algorithm was employed to discretize the state equations; a square-root cubature Kalman filter (SRCKF) was employed to suppress white noise; the residual innovation sequences, a priori state estimate, gain matrix, and innovation covariance generated by SRCKF were employed to estimate the magnitude and location of input forces by using a nonlinear estimator. The nonlinear estimator was based on the least squares method. Numerical simulations of a large deflection beam and an experiment of a linear beam constrained by a nonlinear spring were employed. The results demonstrated accuracy of the nonlinear algorithm.

Donor acceptor electronic couplings in π-stacks: How many states must be accounted for?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voityuk, Alexander A.

2006-04-01

Two-state model is commonly used to estimate the donor-acceptor electronic coupling Vda for electron transfer. However, in some important cases, e.g. for DNA π-stacks, this scheme fails to provide accurate values of Vda because of multistate effects. The Generalized Mulliken-Hush method enables a multistate treatment of Vda. In this Letter, we analyze the dependence of calculated electronic couplings on the number of the adiabatic states included in the model. We suggest a simple scheme to determine this number. The superexchange correction of the two-state approximation is shown to provide good estimates of the electronic coupling.

Quantification and scaling of multipartite entanglement in continuous variable systems.

PubMed

Adesso, Gerardo; Serafini, Alessio; Illuminati, Fabrizio

2004-11-26

We present a theoretical method to determine the multipartite entanglement between different partitions of multimode, fully or partially symmetric Gaussian states of continuous variable systems. For such states, we determine the exact expression of the logarithmic negativity and show that it coincides with that of equivalent two-mode Gaussian states. Exploiting this reduction, we demonstrate the scaling of the multipartite entanglement with the number of modes and its reliable experimental estimate by direct measurements of the global and local purities.

Isonymy structure of Sucre and Táchira, two Venezuelan states.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Larralde, A; Barrai, I

1997-10-01

The isonymy structure of two Venezuelan states, Sucre and Táchira, is described using the surnames of the Register of Electors updated in 1991. The frequency distribution of surnames pooled together by sex was obtained for the 57 counties of Sucre and the 52 counties of Táchira, based on total population sizes of 158,705 and 160,690 individuals, respectively. The coefficient of consanguinity resulting from random isonymy (phi ii), Karlin and McGregor's ni (identical to v), and the proportion of the population included in surnames represented only once (estimator A) and in the seven most frequent surnames (estimator B) were calculated for each county. RST, a measure of microdifferentiation, was estimated for each state. The Euclidean distance between pairs of counties within states was calculated together with the corresponding geographic distances. The correlations between their logarithmic transformations were significant in both cases, indicating differentiation of surnames by distance. Dendrograms based on the Euclidean distance matrix were constructed. From them a first approximation of the effect of internal migration within states was obtained. Ninety-six percent of the coefficient of consanguinity resulting from random isonymy is determined by the proportion of the population included in the seven most frequent surnames, whereas between 72% and 88% of Karlin and McGregor's ni for Sucre and Táchira, respectively, is determined by the proportion of population included in surnames represented only once. Surnames with generalized and with focal distribution were identified for both states, to be used as possible indicators of the geographic origin of their carriers. Our results indicate that Táchira's counties, on average, tend to be more isolated than Sucre's counties, as measured by RST, estimator B, and phi ii. Comparisons with the results obtained for other. Venezuelan states and other non-Venezuelan populations are also given.

How effective are tree improvement programs in the 50 states?

Treesearch

Christopher D. Risbrudt; Stephen E. McDonald

1986-01-01

All 50 states were surveyed to determine the extent of their activities in producing genetically improved trees for timber production. Describes the funds expended, the species being improved, and the use of State and Private Forestry funds provided for genetic improvement. Projects future timber volumes attributable to genetic improvement, and estimates benefit cost...

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

1994-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

NOAA Atlas 14: Updated Precipitation Frequency Estimates for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlovic, S.; Perica, S.; Martin, D.; Roy, I.; StLaurent, M.; Trypaluk, C.; Unruh, D.; Yekta, M.; Bonnin, G. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency estimates, developed by the National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center, serve as the de-facto standards for a wide variety of design and planning activities under federal, state, and local regulations. Precipitation frequency estimates are used in the design of drainage for highways, culverts, bridges, parking lots, as well as in sizing sewer and stormwater infrastructure. Water resources engineers use them to estimate the amount of runoff, to estimate the volume of detention basins and size detention-basin outlet structures, and to estimate the volume of sediment or the amount of erosion. They are also used by floodplain managers to delineate floodplains and regulate the development in floodplains, which is crucial for all communities in the National Flood Insurance Program. Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center now provides more than 35,000 downloads per month to its Precipitation Frequency Data Server. Precipitation frequency estimates are often used in engineering design without any understanding how these estimates have been developed or without any understanding of the uncertainties associated with these estimates. This presentation will describe novel tools and techniques that have being developed in the last years to determine precipitation frequency estimates in NOAA Atlas 14. Particular attention will be given to the regional frequency analysis approach based on L-moment statistics calculated from annual maximum series, selected statistics obtained in determining and parameterizing the probability distribution functions, and the potential implication for engineering design of recently published estimates.

NOAA Atlas 14: Updated Precipitation Frequency Estimates for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlovic, S.; Perica, S.; Martin, D.; Roy, I.; StLaurent, M.; Trypaluk, C.; Unruh, D.; Yekta, M.; Bonnin, G. M.

2011-12-01

NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency estimates, developed by the National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center, serve as the de-facto standards for a wide variety of design and planning activities under federal, state, and local regulations. Precipitation frequency estimates are used in the design of drainage for highways, culverts, bridges, parking lots, as well as in sizing sewer and stormwater infrastructure. Water resources engineers use them to estimate the amount of runoff, to estimate the volume of detention basins and size detention-basin outlet structures, and to estimate the volume of sediment or the amount of erosion. They are also used by floodplain managers to delineate floodplains and regulate the development in floodplains, which is crucial for all communities in the National Flood Insurance Program. Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center now provides more than 35,000 downloads per month to its Precipitation Frequency Data Server. Precipitation frequency estimates are often used in engineering design without any understanding how these estimates have been developed or without any understanding of the uncertainties associated with these estimates. This presentation will describe novel tools and techniques that have being developed in the last years to determine precipitation frequency estimates in NOAA Atlas 14. Particular attention will be given to the regional frequency analysis approach based on L-moment statistics calculated from annual maximum series, selected statistics obtained in determining and parameterizing the probability distribution functions, and the potential implication for engineering design of recently published estimates.

Ideology of a multiparametric system for estimating the insulation system of electric machines on the basis of absorption testing methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kislyakov, M. A.; Chernov, V. A.; Maksimkin, V. L.; Bozhin, Yu. M.

2017-12-01

The article deals with modern methods of monitoring the state and predicting the life of electric machines. In 50% of the cases of failure in the performance of electric machines is associated with insulation damage. As promising, nondestructive methods of control, methods based on the investigation of the processes of polarization occurring in insulating materials are proposed. To improve the accuracy of determining the state of insulation, a multiparametric approach is considered, which is a basis for the development of an expert system for estimating the state of health.

Automated Transition State Theory Calculations for High-Throughput Kinetics.

PubMed

Bhoorasingh, Pierre L; Slakman, Belinda L; Seyedzadeh Khanshan, Fariba; Cain, Jason Y; West, Richard H

2017-09-21

A scarcity of known chemical kinetic parameters leads to the use of many reaction rate estimates, which are not always sufficiently accurate, in the construction of detailed kinetic models. To reduce the reliance on these estimates and improve the accuracy of predictive kinetic models, we have developed a high-throughput, fully automated, reaction rate calculation method, AutoTST. The algorithm integrates automated saddle-point geometry search methods and a canonical transition state theory kinetics calculator. The automatically calculated reaction rates compare favorably to existing estimated rates. Comparison against high level theoretical calculations show the new automated method performs better than rate estimates when the estimate is made by a poor analogy. The method will improve by accounting for internal rotor contributions and by improving methods to determine molecular symmetry.

High Pressure Electrolyzer System Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prokopius, Kevin; Coloza, Anthony

2010-01-01

This report documents the continuing efforts to evaluate the operational state of a high pressure PEM based electrolyzer located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This electrolyzer is a prototype system built by General Electric and refurbished by Hamilton Standard (now named Hamilton Sunstrand). It is capable of producing hydrogen and oxygen at an output pressure of 3000 psi. The electrolyzer has been in storage for a number of years. Evaluation and testing was performed to determine the state of the electrolyzer and provide an estimate of the cost for refurbishment. Pressure testing was performed using nitrogen gas through the oxygen ports to ascertain the status of the internal membranes and seals. It was determined that the integrity of the electrolyzer stack was good as there were no appreciable leaks in the membranes or seals within the stack. In addition to the integrity testing, an itemized list and part cost estimate was produced for the components of the electrolyzer system. An evaluation of the system s present state and an estimate of the cost to bring it back to operational status was also produced.

Analysis of nursing home use and bed supply: Wisconsin, 1983.

PubMed Central

Nyman, J A

1989-01-01

This article presents evidence that in 1983 excess demand was a prevailing characteristic of nursing home care markets in Wisconsin, a state with one of the highest bed to elderly population ratios. It further shows that excess demand is the source of at least three types of error in use-based estimates of the determinants of the need for nursing home care. First, if excess demand is present, estimates of the determinants of Medicaid use may simply represent a crowding out of Medicaid patients, driven by the determinants of private use. As a result, factors associated with greater overall need in an area will be correlated with fewer Medicaid patients in nursing homes, ceteris paribus. Second, estimates of the substitutability of home health care for nursing home care may be misleadingly insignificant if they are based on the bed supply-constrained behavior of Medicaid-eligible subjects. Third, because the determinants of bed supply become the determinants of overall use under excess-demand conditions, the determinants of use will reflect, to some extent, the nursing home's desire for profits. Because profitability considerations are reflected in use based estimates of need, these estimates are likely to be misleading. PMID:2681081

Kalman filter for onboard state of charge estimation and peak power capability analysis of lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Guangzhong; Wei, Jingwen; Chen, Zonghai

2016-10-01

To evaluate the continuous and instantaneous load capability of a battery, this paper describes a joint estimator for state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-function (SOF) of lithium-ion batteries (LIB) based on Kalman filter (KF). The SOC is a widely used index for remain useful capacity left in a battery. The SOF represents the peak power capability of the battery. It can be determined by real-time SOC estimation and terminal voltage prediction, which can be derived from impedance parameters. However, the open-circuit-voltage (OCV) of LiFePO4 is highly nonlinear with SOC, which leads to the difficulties in SOC estimation. To solve these problems, this paper proposed an onboard SOC estimation method. Firstly, a simplified linearized equivalent-circuit-model is developed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of a battery, where the OCV is regarded as a linearized function of SOC. Then, the system states are estimated based on the KF. Besides, the factors that influence peak power capability are analyzed according to statistical data. Finally, the performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by experiments conducted on a LiFePO4 LIBs under different operating currents and temperatures. Experimental results indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for battery onboard SOC and SOF estimation.

A General Simulator Using State Estimation for a Space Tug Navigation System. [computerized simulation, orbital position estimation and flight mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boland, J. S., III

1975-01-01

A general simulation program is presented (GSP) involving nonlinear state estimation for space vehicle flight navigation systems. A complete explanation of the iterative guidance mode guidance law, derivation of the dynamics, coordinate frames, and state estimation routines are given so as to fully clarify the assumptions and approximations involved so that simulation results can be placed in their proper perspective. A complete set of computer acronyms and their definitions as well as explanations of the subroutines used in the GSP simulator are included. To facilitate input/output, a complete set of compatable numbers, with units, are included to aid in data development. Format specifications, output data phrase meanings and purposes, and computer card data input are clearly spelled out. A large number of simulation and analytical studies were used to determine the validity of the simulator itself as well as various data runs.

45 CFR 261.41 - How will we determine the caseload reduction credit?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... ASSISTANCE (ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS), ADMINISTRATION FOR CHILDREN AND FAMILIES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN..., or other administrative data sources and analyses. (2) We will accept the information and estimates... closures, or other administrative data sources to validate the accuracy of the State estimates. (b) In...

EFFECTS OF IMPROVED PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON AUTOMATED RUNOFF MAPPING: EASTERN UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

We evaluated maps of runoff created by means of two automated procedures. We implemented each procedure using precipitation estimates of both 5-km and 10-km resolution from PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). Our goal was to determine if using the...

40 CFR 258.75 - Discounting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... § 258.72(a), and/or corrective action costs in § 258.73(a) up to the rate of return for essentially risk free investments, net of inflation, under the following conditions: (a) The State Director determines... estimate of site life; and (d) Discounted cost estimates must be adjusted annually to reflect inflation and...

Determining the rate of forest conversion in Mato Grosso, Brazil, using Landsat MSS and AVHRR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Ross; Horning, Ned; Stone, Thomas A.

1987-01-01

AVHRR-LAC thermal data and Landsat MSS and TM spectral data were used to estimate the rate of forest clearing in Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 1981 and 1984. The Brazilian state was stratified into forest and nonforest. A list sampling procedure was used in the forest stratum to select Landsat MSS scenes for processing based on estimates of fire activity in the scenes. Fire activity in 1984 was estimated using AVHRR-LAC thermal data. State-wide estimates of forest conversion indicate that between 1981 and 1984, 353,966 ha + or - 77,000 ha (0.4 percent of the state area) were converted per year. No evidence of reforestation was found in this digital sample. The relationship between forest clearing rate (based on MSS-TM analysis) and fire activity (estimated using AVHRR data) was noisy (R-squared = 0.41). The results suggest that AVHRR data may be put to better use as a stratification tool than as a subsidiary variable in list sampling.

Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2002-01-01

Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.

Determination of the critical plane and durability estimation for a multiaxial cyclic loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burago, N. G.; Nikitin, A. D.; Nikitin, I. S.; Yakushev, V. L.

2018-03-01

An analytical procedure is proposed to determine the critical plane orientation according to the Findley criterion for the multiaxial cyclic loading. The cases of in-phase and anti-phase cyclic loading are considered. Calculations of the stress state are carried out for the system of the gas turbine engine compressor disk and blades for flight loading cycles. The formulas obtained are used for estimations of the fatigue durability of this essential element of structure.

Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States: Methodology and Initial Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Austin; Beiter, Philipp; Heimiller, Donna

The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

Adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control of resistive wall modes in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Sen, A. K.; Longman, R. W.

2006-01-01

An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least-square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify (experimentally determine) the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time-dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.

A state space based approach to localizing single molecules from multi-emitter images.

PubMed

Vahid, Milad R; Chao, Jerry; Ward, E Sally; Ober, Raimund J

2017-01-28

Single molecule super-resolution microscopy is a powerful tool that enables imaging at sub-diffraction-limit resolution. In this technique, subsets of stochastically photoactivated fluorophores are imaged over a sequence of frames and accurately localized, and the estimated locations are used to construct a high-resolution image of the cellular structures labeled by the fluorophores. Available localization methods typically first determine the regions of the image that contain emitting fluorophores through a process referred to as detection. Then, the locations of the fluorophores are estimated accurately in an estimation step. We propose a novel localization method which combines the detection and estimation steps. The method models the given image as the frequency response of a multi-order system obtained with a balanced state space realization algorithm based on the singular value decomposition of a Hankel matrix, and determines the locations of intensity peaks in the image as the pole locations of the resulting system. The locations of the most significant peaks correspond to the locations of single molecules in the original image. Although the accuracy of the location estimates is reasonably good, we demonstrate that, by using the estimates as the initial conditions for a maximum likelihood estimator, refined estimates can be obtained that have a standard deviation close to the Cramér-Rao lower bound-based limit of accuracy. We validate our method using both simulated and experimental multi-emitter images.

Online Sensor Fault Detection Based on an Improved Strong Tracking Filter

PubMed Central

Wang, Lijuan; Wu, Lifeng; Guan, Yong; Wang, Guohui

2015-01-01

We propose a method for online sensor fault detection that is based on the evolving Strong Tracking Filter (STCKF). The cubature rule is used to estimate states to improve the accuracy of making estimates in a nonlinear case. A residual is the difference in value between an estimated value and the true value. A residual will be regarded as a signal that includes fault information. The threshold is set at a reasonable level, and will be compared with residuals to determine whether or not the sensor is faulty. The proposed method requires only a nominal plant model and uses STCKF to estimate the original state vector. The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified by simulation on a drum-boiler model. PMID:25690553

Battery state-of-charge estimation using approximate least squares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unterrieder, C.; Zhang, C.; Lunglmayr, M.; Priewasser, R.; Marsili, S.; Huemer, M.

2015-03-01

In recent years, much effort has been spent to extend the runtime of battery-powered electronic applications. In order to improve the utilization of the available cell capacity, high precision estimation approaches for battery-specific parameters are needed. In this work, an approximate least squares estimation scheme is proposed for the estimation of the battery state-of-charge (SoC). The SoC is determined based on the prediction of the battery's electromotive force. The proposed approach allows for an improved re-initialization of the Coulomb counting (CC) based SoC estimation method. Experimental results for an implementation of the estimation scheme on a fuel gauge system on chip are illustrated. Implementation details and design guidelines are presented. The performance of the presented concept is evaluated for realistic operating conditions (temperature effects, aging, standby current, etc.). For the considered test case of a GSM/UMTS load current pattern of a mobile phone, the proposed method is able to re-initialize the CC-method with a high accuracy, while state-of-the-art methods fail to perform a re-initialization.

An LUR/BME framework to estimate PM2.5 explained by on road mobile and stationary sources.

PubMed

Reyes, Jeanette M; Serre, Marc L

2014-01-01

Knowledge of particulate matter concentrations <2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) across the United States is limited due to sparse monitoring across space and time. Epidemiological studies need accurate exposure estimates in order to properly investigate potential morbidity and mortality. Previous works have used geostatistics and land use regression (LUR) separately to quantify exposure. This work combines both methods by incorporating a large area variability LUR model that accounts for on road mobile emissions and stationary source emissions along with data that take into account incompleteness of PM2.5 monitors into the modern geostatistical Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework to estimate PM2.5 across the United States from 1999 to 2009. A cross-validation was done to determine the improvement of the estimate due to the LUR incorporation into BME. These results were applied to known diseases to determine predicted mortality coming from total PM2.5 as well as PM2.5 explained by major contributing sources. This method showed a mean squared error reduction of over 21.89% oversimple kriging. PM2.5 explained by on road mobile emissions and stationary emissions contributed to nearly 568,090 and 306,316 deaths, respectively, across the United States from 1999 to 2007.

Modeling, estimation and identification methods for static shape determination of flexible structures. [for large space structure design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.; Scheid, R. E., Jr.

1986-01-01

This paper outlines methods for modeling, identification and estimation for static determination of flexible structures. The shape estimation schemes are based on structural models specified by (possibly interconnected) elliptic partial differential equations. The identification techniques provide approximate knowledge of parameters in elliptic systems. The techniques are based on the method of maximum-likelihood that finds parameter values such that the likelihood functional associated with the system model is maximized. The estimation methods are obtained by means of a function-space approach that seeks to obtain the conditional mean of the state given the data and a white noise characterization of model errors. The solutions are obtained in a batch-processing mode in which all the data is processed simultaneously. After methods for computing the optimal estimates are developed, an analysis of the second-order statistics of the estimates and of the related estimation error is conducted. In addition to outlining the above theoretical results, the paper presents typical flexible structure simulations illustrating performance of the shape determination methods.

State tobacco control expenditures and tax paid cigarette sales

PubMed Central

Tauras, John A.; Xu, Xin; Huang, Jidong; King, Brian; Lavinghouze, S. Rene; Sneegas, Karla S.; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2018-01-01

This research is the first nationally representative study to examine the relationship between actual state-level tobacco control spending in each of the 5 CDC’s Best Practices for Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program categories and cigarette sales. We employed several alternative two-way fixed-effects regression techniques to estimate the determinants of cigarette sales in the United States for the years 2008–2012. State spending on tobacco control was found to have a negative and significant impact on cigarette sales in all models that were estimated. Spending in the areas of cessation interventions, health communication interventions, and state and community interventions were found to have a negative impact on cigarette sales in all models that were estimated, whereas spending in the areas of surveillance and evaluation, and administration and management were found to have negative effects on cigarette sales in only some models. Our models predict that states that spend up to seven times their current levels could still see significant reductions in cigarette sales. The findings from this research could help inform further investments in state tobacco control programs. PMID:29652890

Estimation of effect of hydrogen on the parameters of magnetoacoustic emission signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skalskyi, Valentyn; Stankevych, Olena; Dubytskyi, Olexandr

2018-05-01

The features of the magnetoacoustic emission (MAE) signals during magnetization of structural steels with the different degree of hydrogenating were investigated by the wavelet transform. The dominant frequency ranges of MAE signals for the different magnetic field strength were determined using Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and the energy and spectral parameters of MAE signals were determined using Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). The characteristic differences of the local maximums of signals according to energy, bandwidth, duration and frequency were found. The methodology of estimation of state of local degradation of materials by parameters of wavelet transform of MAE signals was proposed. This methodology was approbated for investigate of state of long-time exploitations structural steels of oil and gas pipelines.

Small expendable deployer system measurement analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carrington, Connie K.

1988-01-01

The first on-orbit experiment of the Small Expendable Deployer System (SEDS) for tethered satellites will collect telemetry data for tether length, rate of deployment, and tether tension. The post-flight analysis will use this data to reconstruct the deployment history and determine dynamic characteristics such as tether shape and payload position. Linearized observability analysis has determined that these measurements are adequate to define states for a two-mass tether model, and two state estimators were written.

Quantum Parameter Estimation: From Experimental Design to Constructive Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Le; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Ming; Dai, Hong-Yi

2017-11-01

In this paper we design the following two-step scheme to estimate the model parameter ω 0 of the quantum system: first we utilize the Fisher information with respect to an intermediate variable v=\\cos ({ω }0t) to determine an optimal initial state and to seek optimal parameters of the POVM measurement operators; second we explore how to estimate ω 0 from v by choosing t when a priori information knowledge of ω 0 is available. Our optimal initial state can achieve the maximum quantum Fisher information. The formulation of the optimal time t is obtained and the complete algorithm for parameter estimation is presented. We further explore how the lower bound of the estimation deviation depends on the a priori information of the model. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 61273202, 61673389, and 61134008

43 CFR 11.73 - Quantification phase-resource recoverability analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... analysis. (a) Requirement. The time needed for the injured resources to recover to the state that the... been acquired to baseline levels shall be estimated. The time estimated for recovery or any lesser period of time as determined in the Assessment Plan must be used as the recovery period for purposes of...

A general predictive model for estimating monthly ecosystem evapotranspiration

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Karrin Alstad; Jiquan Chen; Shiping Chen; Chelcy R. Ford; al. et.

2011-01-01

Accurately quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for modelling regional-scale ecosystem water balances. This study assembled an ET data set estimated from eddy flux and sapflow measurements for 13 ecosystems across a large climatic and management gradient from the United States, China, and Australia. Our objectives were to determine the relationships among...

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mashiku, Alinda; Garrison, James L.; Carpenter, J. Russell

2012-01-01

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Estimation of nonlinear pilot model parameters including time delay.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, J. R.; Roland, V. R.; Wells, W. R.

1972-01-01

Investigation of the feasibility of using a Kalman filter estimator for the identification of unknown parameters in nonlinear dynamic systems with a time delay. The problem considered is the application of estimation theory to determine the parameters of a family of pilot models containing delayed states. In particular, the pilot-plant dynamics are described by differential-difference equations of the retarded type. The pilot delay, included as one of the unknown parameters to be determined, is kept in pure form as opposed to the Pade approximations generally used for these systems. Problem areas associated with processing real pilot response data are included in the discussion.

Bell nonlocality and fully entangled fraction measured in an entanglement-swapping device without quantum state tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartkiewicz, Karol; Lemr, Karel; Černoch, Antonín; Miranowicz, Adam

2017-03-01

We propose and experimentally implement an efficient procedure based on entanglement swapping to determine the Bell nonlocality measure of Horodecki et al. [Phys. Lett. A 200, 340 (1995), 10.1016/0375-9601(95)00214-N] and the fully entangled fraction of Bennett et al. [Phys. Rev. A 54, 3824 (1996), 10.1103/PhysRevA.54.3824] of an arbitrary two-qubit polarization-encoded state. The nonlocality measure corresponds to the amount of the violation of the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) optimized over all measurement settings. By using simultaneously two copies of a given state, we measure directly only six parameters. This is an experimental determination of these quantities without quantum state tomography or continuous monitoring of all measurement bases in the usual CHSH inequality tests. We analyze how well the measured degrees of Bell nonlocality and other entanglement witnesses (including the fully entangled fraction and a nonlinear entropic witness) of an arbitrary two-qubit state can estimate its entanglement. In particular, we measure these witnesses and estimate the negativity of various two-qubit Werner states. Our approach could especially be useful for quantum communication protocols based on entanglement swapping.

3 CFR - Presidential Determination on Major Drug Transit or Major Illicit Drug Producing Countries for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... United States. United States-bound trafficking in cocaine through the Caribbean dramatically increased... drug producer or transit zone, the region is a growing concern. The destabilizing effects of increasing... estimates that cocaine trafficking in West Africa generates approximately $1.25 billion at wholesale prices...

Determination of saturation pressure and enthalpy of vaporization of semi-volatile aerosols: the integrated volume mentod

EPA Science Inventory

This study presents the integrated volume method for estimating saturation pressure and enthalpy of vaporization of a whole aerosol distribution. We measure the change of total volume of an aerosol distribution between a reference state and several heated states, with the heating...

Review of traffic monitoring factor groupings and the determination of seasonal adjustment factors for cars and trucks : executive summary report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

One objective of statewide traffic monitoring : programs is to accurately estimate the Annual : Average Daily Traffic (AADT) for many roadway : segments within the state. The majority of the : departments of transportation (DOT) in the United : State...

Phase estimation with nonunitary interferometers: Information as a metric

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bahder, Thomas B.

2011-05-15

Determining the phase in one arm of a quantum interferometer is discussed taking into account the three nonideal aspects in real experiments: nondeterministic state preparation, nonunitary state evolution due to losses during state propagation, and imperfect state detection. A general expression is written for the probability of a measurement outcome taking into account these three nonideal aspects. As an example of applying the formalism, the classical Fisher information and fidelity (Shannon mutual information between phase and measurements) are computed for few-photon Fock and N00N states input into a lossy Mach-Zehnder interferometer. These three nonideal aspects lead to qualitative differences inmore » phase estimation, such as a decrease in fidelity and Fisher information that depends on the true value of the phase.« less

Comparison of two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage in the lower Arkansas River Basin, Colorado, 1997-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dash, Russell G.; Troutman, Brent M.; Edelmann, Patrick

1999-01-01

In March 1994, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted ?Rules Governing the Measurement of Tributary Ground Water Diversions Located in the Arkansas River Basin? (Office of the State Engineer, 1994); these initial rules were amended in February 1996 (Office of the State Engineer, 1996). The amended rules require users of wells that divert tributary ground water to annually report the water pumped monthly by each well. The rules allow a well owner to report the pumpage measured by a totalizing flowmeter (TFM) or pumpage determined from electrical power data and a power conversion coefficient (PCC) (Hurr and Litke, 1989).Opinions by representatives of the State of Kansas, presented before the Special Master hearing a court case [State of Kansas v. State of Colorado, No. 105 Original (1996)] concerning post-Compact well pumping, stated that the PCC approach does not provide the same level of accuracy and reliability as a TFM when used to determine pumpage. In 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the CDWR, began a 2-year study to compare ground-water pumpage estimates made using the TFM and the PCC approaches. The study area was along the Arkansas River between Pueblo, Colorado, and the Colorado-Kansas State line (fig. 1).The two approaches for estimating ground-water discharge and pumpage were compared for more than 100 wells completed in the alluvial aquifer of the Arkansas River Basin. The TFM approach uses an inline flowmeter to directly measure instantaneous discharge and the total volume of water pumped at a well. The PCC approach uses electrical power consumption records and a power conversion coefficient to estimate the pumpage at ground-water wells.This executive summary describes the results of the comparison of the two approaches. Specifically, (1) the differences in instantaneous discharge measured with three portable flowmeters and measured with an inline TFM are evaluated, and the statistical differences in paired instantaneous discharge between the two approaches are determined; (2) short- and long-term variations in the PCC?s are presented; (3) differences in pumpage between the two approaches are evaluated, and the statistical differences in pumpage between the two approaches are determined; (4) potential sources of discrepancy between pumpage estimates are discussed; and (5) differences in total network pumpage using the two approaches are presented.During the irrigation seasons of 1997 and 1998, instantaneous discharge and electrical power demand were measured at randomly selected wells to determine PCC?s. At more than 100 wells, the PCC?s determined during the 1998 season were applied to total electrical power consumption data that was recorded between the initial and final readings at each network well site in 1998 to estimate total ground-water pumpage.At each site, an inline TFM was installed in a full-flowing, acceptable test section of pipe on the discharge side of the pump where the measurement of discharge was made. Measurements of instantaneous ground-water discharge also were made using three different types of portable flowmeters. The average velocity multiplied by the cross-sectional area of the discharge pipe was used to compute the discharge in gallons per minute. Whenever possible, discharge measurements were made at each network site using all three types of portable flowmeters.

Rapid cable tension estimation using dynamic and mechanical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Castro, Rosana E.; Jang, Shinae; Christenson, Richard E.

2016-04-01

Main tension elements are critical to the overall stability of cable-supported bridges. A dependable and rapid determination of cable tension is desired to assess the state of a cable-supported bridge and evaluate its operability. A portable smart sensor setup is presented to reduce post-processing time and deployment complexity while reliably determining cable tension using dynamic characteristics extracted from spectral analysis. A self-recording accelerometer is coupled with a single-board microcomputer that communicates wirelessly with a remote host computer. The portable smart sensing device is designed such that additional algorithms, sensors and controlling devices for various monitoring applications can be installed and operated for additional structural assessment. The tension-estimating algorithms are based on taut string theory and expand to consider bending stiffness. The successful combination of cable properties allows the use of a cable's dynamic behavior to determine tension force. The tension-estimating algorithms are experimentally validated on a through-arch steel bridge subject to ambient vibration induced by passing traffic. The tension estimation is determined in well agreement with previously determined tension values for the structure.

A comparison of practical assessment methods to determine treadmill, cycle and elliptical ergometer VO2peak

PubMed Central

Mays, Ryan J.; Boér, Nicholas F.; Mealey, Lisa M.; Kim, Kevin H.; Goss, Fredric L.

2015-01-01

This investigation compared estimated and predicted peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) and maximal heart rate (HRmax) among the treadmill, cycle ergometer and elliptical ergometer. Seventeen women (mean ± SE: 21.9 ± .3 yrs) exercised to exhaustion on all modalities. ACSM metabolic equations were used to estimate VO2peak. Digital displays on the elliptical ergometer were used to estimate VO2peak. Two individual linear regression methods were used to predict VO2peak: 1) two steady state heart rate (HR) responses up to 85% of age-predicted HRmax, and 2) multiple steady state/non-steady state HR responses up to 85% of age-predicted HRmax. Estimated VO2peak for the treadmill (46.3 ± 1.3 ml · kg−1 · min−1) and the elliptical ergometer (44.4 ± 1.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) did not differ. The cycle ergometer estimated VO2peak (36.5 ± 1.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) was lower (p < .001) than the estimated VO2peak values for the treadmill and elliptical ergometer. Elliptical ergometer VO2peak predicted from steady state (51.4 ± .8 ml · kg−1 · min−1) and steady state/non-steady state (50.3 ± 2.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) models were higher than estimated elliptical ergometer VO2peak, p < .01. HRmax and estimates of VO2peak were similar between the treadmill and elliptical ergometer, thus cross-modal exercise prescriptions may be generated. The use of digital display estimates of submaximal oxygen uptake for the elliptical ergometer may not be an accurate method for predicting VO2peak. Health-fitness professionals should use caution when utilizing submaximal elliptical ergometer digital display estimates to predict VO2peak. PMID:20393357

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). YES phase 1 yield feasibility report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Each state model was separately evaluated to determine if a projected performance to the country level would satisfy a 90/90 criterion. All state models, except the North Dakota and Kansas models, satisfied that criterion both for district estimates aggregated to the state level and for state estimates directly from the models. In addition to the tests of the 90/90 criterion, the models were examined for their ability to adequately respond to fluctuations in weather. This portion of the analysis was based on a subjective interpretation of values of certain description statistics. As a result, 10 of the 12 models were judged to respond inadequately to variation in weather-related variables.

Some modifications of Newton's method for the determination of the steady-state response of nonlinear oscillatory circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosz, F. B., Jr.; Trick, T. N.

1982-07-01

It is proposed that nondominant states should be eliminated from the Newton algorithm in the steady-state analysis of nonlinear oscillatory systems. This technique not only improves convergence, but also reduces the size of the sensitivity matrix so that less computation is required for each iteration. One or more periods of integration should be performed after each periodic state estimation before the sensitivity computations are made for the next periodic state estimation. These extra periods of integration between Newton iterations are found to allow the fast states due to parasitic effects to settle, which enables the Newton algorithm to make a better prediction. In addition, the reliability of the algorithm is improved in high Q oscillator circuits by both local and global damping in which the amount of damping is proportional to the difference between the initial and final state values.

Polarimetric Radar Observations of Forest State for Determination of Ecosystem Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.; Dobson, M. Craig; Sharik, T.

1996-01-01

The objectives of this research are to test the hypotheses that ecologically significant forest state parameters may be estimated from SAR data. These include estimation of above ground biomass, plant water status, and near surface soil moisture under certain forest conditions. Test hypotheses in the northern hardwoods forest community, refine them if necessary, and establish techniques for retrieving this information from orbital SARs such as SIR-C/X-SAR. This report summarizes (1) recent progress, (2) significant results and (3) research plans concerning SIR-C/X-SAR research.

A Comparison of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions Datasets: UND and CDIAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J. S.; Andres, R. J.

2005-05-01

Using data from the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), a technique is developed to estimate the monthly consumption of solid, liquid and gaseous fossil fuels for each state in the union. This technique employs monthly sales data to estimate the relative monthly proportions of the total annual carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use for all states in the union. The University of North Dakota (UND) results are compared to those published by Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Recently, annual emissions per U.S. state (Blasing, Broniak, Marland, 2004a) as well as monthly CO2 emissions for the United States (Blasing, Broniak, Marland, 2004b) have been added to the CDIAC website. To determine the success of this technique, the individual state results are compared to the annual state totals calculated by CDIAC. In addition, the monthly country totals are compared with those produced by CDIAC. In general, the UND technique produces estimates that are consistent with those available on the CDIAC Trends website. Comparing the results from these two methods permits an improved understanding of the strengths and shortcomings of both estimation techniques. The primary advantages of the UND approach are its ease of implementation, the improved spatial and temporal resolution it can produce, and its universal applicability.

Estimating the Integrated Information Measure Phi from High-Density Electroencephalography during States of Consciousness in Humans

PubMed Central

Kim, Hyoungkyu; Hudetz, Anthony G.; Lee, Joseph; Mashour, George A.; Lee, UnCheol; Avidan, Michael S.

2018-01-01

The integrated information theory (IIT) proposes a quantitative measure, denoted as Φ, of the amount of integrated information in a physical system, which is postulated to have an identity relationship with consciousness. IIT predicts that the value of Φ estimated from brain activities represents the level of consciousness across phylogeny and functional states. Practical limitations, such as the explosive computational demands required to estimate Φ for real systems, have hindered its application to the brain and raised questions about the utility of IIT in general. To achieve practical relevance for studying the human brain, it will be beneficial to establish the reliable estimation of Φ from multichannel electroencephalogram (EEG) and define the relationship of Φ to EEG properties conventionally used to define states of consciousness. In this study, we introduce a practical method to estimate Φ from high-density (128-channel) EEG and determine the contribution of each channel to Φ. We examine the correlation of power, frequency, functional connectivity, and modularity of EEG with regional Φ in various states of consciousness as modulated by diverse anesthetics. We find that our approximation of Φ alone is insufficient to discriminate certain states of anesthesia. However, a multi-dimensional parameter space extended by four parameters related to Φ and EEG connectivity is able to differentiate all states of consciousness. The association of Φ with EEG connectivity during clinically defined anesthetic states represents a new practical approach to the application of IIT, which may be used to characterize various physiological (sleep), pharmacological (anesthesia), and pathological (coma) states of consciousness in the human brain. PMID:29503611

Estimating the Integrated Information Measure Phi from High-Density Electroencephalography during States of Consciousness in Humans.

PubMed

Kim, Hyoungkyu; Hudetz, Anthony G; Lee, Joseph; Mashour, George A; Lee, UnCheol

2018-01-01

The integrated information theory (IIT) proposes a quantitative measure, denoted as Φ, of the amount of integrated information in a physical system, which is postulated to have an identity relationship with consciousness. IIT predicts that the value of Φ estimated from brain activities represents the level of consciousness across phylogeny and functional states. Practical limitations, such as the explosive computational demands required to estimate Φ for real systems, have hindered its application to the brain and raised questions about the utility of IIT in general. To achieve practical relevance for studying the human brain, it will be beneficial to establish the reliable estimation of Φ from multichannel electroencephalogram (EEG) and define the relationship of Φ to EEG properties conventionally used to define states of consciousness. In this study, we introduce a practical method to estimate Φ from high-density (128-channel) EEG and determine the contribution of each channel to Φ. We examine the correlation of power, frequency, functional connectivity, and modularity of EEG with regional Φ in various states of consciousness as modulated by diverse anesthetics. We find that our approximation of Φ alone is insufficient to discriminate certain states of anesthesia. However, a multi-dimensional parameter space extended by four parameters related to Φ and EEG connectivity is able to differentiate all states of consciousness. The association of Φ with EEG connectivity during clinically defined anesthetic states represents a new practical approach to the application of IIT, which may be used to characterize various physiological (sleep), pharmacological (anesthesia), and pathological (coma) states of consciousness in the human brain.

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... procedures contained in the EnergyStar Version 4.2 test, which is comprised of the ENERGY STAR Program... and 19 hours in sleep (standby) mode per day. These ENERGY STAR requirements are incorporated by... inspected or obtained at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, ENERGY STAR Hotline (6202J...

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... procedures contained in the EnergyStar Version 4.2 test, which is comprised of the ENERGY STAR Program... and 19 hours in sleep (standby) mode per day. These ENERGY STAR requirements are incorporated by... inspected or obtained at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, ENERGY STAR Hotline (6202J...

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... procedures contained in the ENERGY STAR Version 4.2 test, which is comprised of the ENERGY STAR Program... and 19 hours in sleep (standby) mode per day. These ENERGY STAR requirements are incorporated by... inspected or obtained at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, ENERGY STAR Hotline (6202J...

A subagging regression method for estimating the qualitative and quantitative state of groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, J.; Park, E.; Choi, J.; Han, W. S.; Yun, S. T.

2016-12-01

A subagging regression (SBR) method for the analysis of groundwater data pertaining to the estimation of trend and the associated uncertainty is proposed. The SBR method is validated against synthetic data competitively with other conventional robust and non-robust methods. From the results, it is verified that the estimation accuracies of the SBR method are consistent and superior to those of the other methods and the uncertainties are reasonably estimated where the others have no uncertainty analysis option. To validate further, real quantitative and qualitative data are employed and analyzed comparatively with Gaussian process regression (GPR). For all cases, the trend and the associated uncertainties are reasonably estimated by SBR, whereas the GPR has limitations in representing the variability of non-Gaussian skewed data. From the implementations, it is determined that the SBR method has potential to be further developed as an effective tool of anomaly detection or outlier identification in groundwater state data.

Profitability and risk analysis of soybean planting date by maturity group

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Limited knowledge exists on estimated soybean yield response to planting date to determine the profit-maximizing planting date for soybean production by maturity group (MG) in the southern United States. Furthermore, determining the optimal MG and crop insurance coverage level that is preferred by r...

Cloud cover and solar disk state estimation using all-sky images: deep neural networks approach compared to routine methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krinitskiy, Mikhail; Sinitsyn, Alexey

2017-04-01

Shortwave radiation is an important component of surface heat budget over sea and land. To estimate them accurate observations of cloud conditions are needed including total cloud cover, spatial and temporal cloud structure. While massively observed visually, for building accurate SW radiation parameterizations cloud structure needs also to be quantified using precise instrumental measurements. While there already exist several state of the art land-based cloud-cameras that satisfy researchers needs, their major disadvantages are associated with inaccuracy of all-sky images processing algorithms which typically result in the uncertainties of 2-4 octa of cloud cover estimates with the resulting true-scoring cloud cover accuracy of about 7%. Moreover, none of these algorithms determine cloud types. We developed an approach for cloud cover and structure estimating, which provides much more accurate estimates and also allows for measuring additional characteristics. This method is based on the synthetic controlling index, namely the "grayness rate index", that we introduced in 2014. Since then this index has already demonstrated high efficiency being used along with the technique namely the "background sunburn effect suppression", to detect thin clouds. This made it possible to significantly increase the accuracy of total cloud cover estimation in various sky image states using this extension of routine algorithm type. Errors for the cloud cover estimates significantly decreased down resulting the mean squared error of about 1.5 octa. Resulting true-scoring accuracy is more than 38%. The main source of this approach uncertainties is the solar disk state determination errors. While the deep neural networks approach lets us to estimate solar disk state with 94% accuracy, the final result of total cloud estimation still isn`t satisfying. To solve this problem completely we applied the set of machine learning algorithms to the problem of total cloud cover estimation directly. The accuracy of this approach varies depending on algorithm choice. Deep neural networks demonstrated the best accuracy of more than 96%. We will demonstrate some approaches and the most influential statistical features of all-sky images that lets the algorithm reach that high accuracy. With the use of our new optical package a set of over 480`000 samples has been collected in several sea missions in 2014-2016 along with concurrent standard human observed and instrumentally recorded meteorological parameters. We will demonstrate the results of the field measurements and will discuss some still remaining problems and the potential of the further developments of machine learning approach.

76 FR 68763 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-07

... Poverty Rate is the Result of the TANF Program. OMB No.: 0970-0186. Description: In accordance with... Bureau data show that a State's child poverty rate increased by 5 percent or more from one year to the next, a State may submit independent estimates of its child poverty rate. If HHS determines that the...

Moving-Bank Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation and Control Applied to a Large Flexible Space Structure

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

was determined from the difference between the 24-state matrix product, HtP (t’)HT, and the six-state matrix product, HfPf (tT)HT’. For this...The true position for node 7, which represents the rigid body position of the structure, is not damped and can be interpreted as a rigid body...application, considering the same issues as explored in this research. Continue with a physical interpretation of the structure positions for determining the

Maximum likelihood-based analysis of single-molecule photon arrival trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdziona, Marta; Molski, Andrzej

2011-02-01

In this work we explore the statistical properties of the maximum likelihood-based analysis of one-color photon arrival trajectories. This approach does not involve binning and, therefore, all of the information contained in an observed photon strajectory is used. We study the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and the efficiency of the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in selecting the true kinetic model. We focus on the low excitation regime where photon trajectories can be modeled as realizations of Markov modulated Poisson processes. The number of observed photons is the key parameter in determining model selection and parameter estimation. For example, the BIC can select the true three-state model from competing two-, three-, and four-state kinetic models even for relatively short trajectories made up of 2 × 103 photons. When the intensity levels are well-separated and 104 photons are observed, the two-state model parameters can be estimated with about 10% precision and those for a three-state model with about 20% precision.

Use of streamflow data to estimate base flowground-water recharge for Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, W.A.; Radloff, M.J.; Considine, E.J.; Kennedy, J.L.

2007-01-01

The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow-gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base-flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970-99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow-gaging stations that had long-term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple-regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low-flow partial-record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base-flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Estimating the State of Aerodynamic Flows in the Presence of Modeling Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Andre F. C.; Colonius, Tim

2017-11-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been proven to be successful in fields such as meteorology, in which high-dimensional nonlinear systems render classical estimation techniques impractical. When the model used to forecast state evolution misrepresents important aspects of the true dynamics, estimator performance may degrade. In this work, parametrization and state augmentation are used to track misspecified boundary conditions (e.g., free stream perturbations). The resolution error is modeled as a Gaussian-distributed random variable with the mean (bias) and variance to be determined. The dynamics of the flow past a NACA 0009 airfoil at high angles of attack and moderate Reynolds number is represented by a Navier-Stokes equations solver with immersed boundaries capabilities. The pressure distribution on the airfoil or the velocity field in the wake, both randomized by synthetic noise, are sampled as measurement data and incorporated into the estimated state and bias following Kalman's analysis scheme. Insights about how to specify the modeling error covariance matrix and its impact on the estimator performance are conveyed. This work has been supported in part by a Grant from AFOSR (FA9550-14-1-0328) with Dr. Douglas Smith as program manager, and by a Science without Borders scholarship from the Ministry of Education of Brazil (Capes Foundation - BEX 12966/13-4).

Estimating soil hydraulic parameters from transient flow experiments in a centrifuge using parameter optimization technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Šimůnek, Jirka; Nimmo, John R.

2005-01-01

A modified version of the Hydrus software package that can directly or inversely simulate water flow in a transient centrifugal field is presented. The inverse solver for parameter estimation of the soil hydraulic parameters is then applied to multirotation transient flow experiments in a centrifuge. Using time‐variable water contents measured at a sequence of several rotation speeds, soil hydraulic properties were successfully estimated by numerical inversion of transient experiments. The inverse method was then evaluated by comparing estimated soil hydraulic properties with those determined independently using an equilibrium analysis. The optimized soil hydraulic properties compared well with those determined using equilibrium analysis and steady state experiment. Multirotation experiments in a centrifuge not only offer significant time savings by accelerating time but also provide significantly more information for the parameter estimation procedure compared to multistep outflow experiments in a gravitational field.

A comparison of consumptive-use estimates derived from the simplified surface energy balance approach and indirect reporting methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maupin, Molly A.; Senay, Gabriel B.; Kenny, Joan F.; Savoca, Mark E.

2012-01-01

Recent advances in remote-sensing technology and Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) methods can provide accurate and repeatable estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) when used with satellite observations of irrigated lands. Estimates of ET are generally considered equivalent to consumptive use (CU) because they represent the part of applied irrigation water that is evaporated, transpired, or otherwise not available for immediate reuse. The U.S. Geological Survey compared ET estimates from SSEB methods to CU data collected for 1995 using indirect methods as part of the National Water Use Information Program (NWUIP). Ten-year (2000-2009) average ET estimates from SSEB methods were derived using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1-kilometer satellite land surface temperature and gridded weather datasets from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). County-level CU estimates for 1995 were assembled and referenced to 1-kilometer grid cells to synchronize with the SSEB ET estimates. Both datasets were seasonally and spatially weighted to represent the irrigation season (June-September) and those lands that were identified in the county as irrigated. A strong relation (R2 greater than 0.7) was determined between NWUIP CU and SSEB ET data. Regionally, the relation is stronger in arid western states than in humid eastern states, and positive and negative biases are both present at state-level comparisons. SSEB ET estimates can play a major role in monitoring and updating county-based CU estimates by providing a quick and cost-effective method to detect major year-to-year changes at county levels, as well as providing a means to disaggregate county-based ET estimates to sub-county levels. More research is needed to identify the causes for differences in state-based relations.

Estimating soybean genetic gain for yield in the northern United States – Influence of cropping history

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mean on-farm USA soybean yield increased at a rate of 21.3 kg per ha per year between 1924 and 2010, due to adoption of yield-enhancing genetic and agronomic technologies. To estimate annual rates of genetic yield gain in three northern USA soybean maturity groups (MG) and determine if these estimat...

The Determinants of Child Health in Pakistan: An Economic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shehzad, Shafqat

2006-01-01

This paper estimates linear structural models using LISREL and employs MIMIC models to find out factors determining child health in Pakistan. A distinction has been made in permanent and transitory health states that lend support to Grossman's (1972) stock and flow concepts of health. The paper addresses the issue of health unobservability and…

Burden of Severe Pneumonia, Pneumococcal Pneumonia and Pneumonia Deaths in Indian States: Modelling Based Estimates

PubMed Central

Farooqui, Habib; Jit, Mark; Heymann, David L.; Zodpey, Sanjay

2015-01-01

The burden of severe pneumonia in terms of morbidity and mortality is unknown in India especially at sub-national level. In this context, we aimed to estimate the number of severe pneumonia episodes, pneumococcal pneumonia episodes and pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010. We adapted and parameterized a mathematical model based on the epidemiological concept of potential impact fraction developed CHERG for this analysis. The key parameters that determine the distribution of severe pneumonia episode across Indian states were state-specific under-5 population, state-specific prevalence of selected definite pneumonia risk factors and meta-estimates of relative risks for each of these risk factors. We applied the incidence estimates and attributable fraction of risk factors to population estimates for 2010 of each Indian state. We then estimated the number of pneumococcal pneumonia cases by applying the vaccine probe methodology to an existing trial. We estimated mortality due to severe pneumonia and pneumococcal pneumonia by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from multi-centric hospital-based studies. Our results suggest that in 2010, 3.6 million (3.3–3.9 million) episodes of severe pneumonia and 0.35 million (0.31–0.40 million) all cause pneumonia deaths occurred in children younger than 5 years in India. The states that merit special mention include Uttar Pradesh where 18.1% children reside but contribute 24% of pneumonia cases and 26% pneumonia deaths, Bihar (11.3% children, 16% cases, 22% deaths) Madhya Pradesh (6.6% children, 9% cases, 12% deaths), and Rajasthan (6.6% children, 8% cases, 11% deaths). Further, we estimated that 0.56 million (0.49–0.64 million) severe episodes of pneumococcal pneumonia and 105 thousand (92–119 thousand) pneumococcal deaths occurred in India. The top contributors to India’s pneumococcal pneumonia burden were Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in that order. Our results highlight the need to improve access to care and increase coverage and equity of pneumonia preventing vaccines in states with high pneumonia burden. PMID:26086700

Storage requirements for Arkansas streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, James Lee

1968-01-01

The supply of good-quality surface water in Arkansas is abundant. owing to seasonal and annual variability of streamflow, however, storage must be provided to insure dependable year-round supplies in most of the State. Storage requirements for draft rates that are as much as 60 percent of the mean annual flow at 49 continuous-record gaging stations can be obtained from tabular data in this report. Through regional analyses of streamflow data, the State was divided into three regions. Draft-storage diagrams for each region provide a means of estimating storage requirements for sites on streams where data are scant, provided the drainage area, the mean annual flow, and the low-flow index are known. These data are tabulated for 53 gaging stations used in the analyses and for 132 partial-record sites where only base-flow measurements have been made. Mean annual flow can be determined for any stream whose drainage lies within the State by using the runoff map in this report. Low-flow indices can be estimated by correlating base flows, determined from several discharge measurements, with concurrent flows at nearby continuous-record gaging stations, whose low-flow indices have been determined.

Replica exchange enveloping distribution sampling (RE-EDS): A robust method to estimate multiple free-energy differences from a single simulation.

PubMed

Sidler, Dominik; Schwaninger, Arthur; Riniker, Sereina

2016-10-21

In molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, free-energy differences are often calculated using free energy perturbation or thermodynamic integration (TI) methods. However, both techniques are only suited to calculate free-energy differences between two end states. Enveloping distribution sampling (EDS) presents an attractive alternative that allows to calculate multiple free-energy differences in a single simulation. In EDS, a reference state is simulated which "envelopes" the end states. The challenge of this methodology is the determination of optimal reference-state parameters to ensure equal sampling of all end states. Currently, the automatic determination of the reference-state parameters for multiple end states is an unsolved issue that limits the application of the methodology. To resolve this, we have generalised the replica-exchange EDS (RE-EDS) approach, introduced by Lee et al. [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 2738 (2014)] for constant-pH MD simulations. By exchanging configurations between replicas with different reference-state parameters, the complexity of the parameter-choice problem can be substantially reduced. A new robust scheme to estimate the reference-state parameters from a short initial RE-EDS simulation with default parameters was developed, which allowed the calculation of 36 free-energy differences between nine small-molecule inhibitors of phenylethanolamine N-methyltransferase from a single simulation. The resulting free-energy differences were in excellent agreement with values obtained previously by TI and two-state EDS simulations.

The Observational Determination of the Primordial Helium Abundance: a Y2K Status Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skillman, Evan D.

I review observational progress and assess the current state of the determination of the primordial helium abundance, Yp. At present there are two determinations with non-overlapping errors. My impression is that the errors have been under-estimated in both studies. I review recent work on errors assessment and give suggestions for decreasing systematic errors in future studies.

Spatiotemporal Local-Remote Senor Fusion (ST-LRSF) for Cooperative Vehicle Positioning.

PubMed

Jeong, Han-You; Nguyen, Hoa-Hung; Bhawiyuga, Adhitya

2018-04-04

Vehicle positioning plays an important role in the design of protocols, algorithms, and applications in the intelligent transport systems. In this paper, we present a new framework of spatiotemporal local-remote sensor fusion (ST-LRSF) that cooperatively improves the accuracy of absolute vehicle positioning based on two state estimates of a vehicle in the vicinity: a local sensing estimate, measured by the on-board exteroceptive sensors, and a remote sensing estimate, received from neighbor vehicles via vehicle-to-everything communications. Given both estimates of vehicle state, the ST-LRSF scheme identifies the set of vehicles in the vicinity, determines the reference vehicle state, proposes a spatiotemporal dissimilarity metric between two reference vehicle states, and presents a greedy algorithm to compute a minimal weighted matching (MWM) between them. Given the outcome of MWM, the theoretical position uncertainty of the proposed refinement algorithm is proven to be inversely proportional to the square root of matching size. To further reduce the positioning uncertainty, we also develop an extended Kalman filter model with the refined position of ST-LRSF as one of the measurement inputs. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed ST-LRSF framework can achieve high positioning accuracy for many different scenarios of cooperative vehicle positioning.

Complete prevalence of malignant primary brain tumors registry data in the United States compared with other common cancers, 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Adah S.; Ostrom, Quinn T.; Kruchko, Carol

Complete prevalence proportions illustrate the burden of disease in a population. Here, this study estimates the 2010 complete prevalence of malignant primary brain tumors overall and by Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) histology groups, and compares the brain tumor prevalence estimates to the complete prevalence of other common cancers as determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) by age at prevalence (2010): children (0–14 y), adolescent and young adult (AYA) (15–39 y), and adult (40+ y).

Complete prevalence of malignant primary brain tumors registry data in the United States compared with other common cancers, 2010

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Adah S.; Ostrom, Quinn T.; Kruchko, Carol; ...

2016-12-29

Complete prevalence proportions illustrate the burden of disease in a population. Here, this study estimates the 2010 complete prevalence of malignant primary brain tumors overall and by Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) histology groups, and compares the brain tumor prevalence estimates to the complete prevalence of other common cancers as determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) by age at prevalence (2010): children (0–14 y), adolescent and young adult (AYA) (15–39 y), and adult (40+ y).

77 FR 42189 - Marine Recreational Fisheries of the United States; National Saltwater Angler Registry and State...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-18

... improvements to the design and management of survey and estimation methods used to produce marine recreational... to these effort surveys provides for continued pilot testing of effort sampling designs that use both... NMFS determine what specific sampling design to use in MRIP effort surveys on the Atlantic and Gulf...

Estimation of livestock appropriation of net primary productivity in Texas Drylands

Treesearch

Robert Washington-Allen; Jody Fitzgerald; Stephanie Grounds; Faisar Jihadi; John Kretzschmar; Kathryn Ramirez; John Mitchell

2009-01-01

The ecological state of US Drylands is unknown. This research is developing procedures to determine the impact of the ecological footprint of grazing livestock on the productive capacity of US Drylands. A pilot geodatabase was developed for the state of Texas that includes 2002 data for county boundaries, net primary productivity (NPP) derived from the Moderate...

The Fiscal Impact of Tax-Credit Scholarships in Oklahoma. State Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottlob, Brian

2011-01-01

This study seeks to provide outcomes-based information on Oklahoma's proposal to give tax credits for contributing to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of tax-credit scholarships on the state and on local school districts. The author estimates the impact…

Genotype by environment interaction in Nelore cattle from five Brazilian states

PubMed Central

Diaz, Iara Del Pilar Solar; de Oliveira, Henrique Nunes; Bezerra, Luis Antônio Framartino; Lôbo, Raysildo Barbosa

2011-01-01

Records from 75,941 Nelore cattle were used to determine the importance of genotype by environment interaction (GEI) in five Brazilian states. (Co)variance components were estimated by single-trait analysis (with yearling weight, W450, considered to be the same trait in all states) and multiple-trait analysis (with the record from each state considered to be a different trait). The direct heritability estimates for yearling weight were 0.51, 0.39, 0.44, 0.37 and 0.41 in the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso, São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais, respectively. The across-state genetic correlation estimates between Goiás and Mato Grosso, Goiás and Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais ranged from 0.67 to 0.75. These estimates indicate that GEIs are biologically important. No interactions were observed between Goiás and São Paulo, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and São Paulo, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais, or São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul (0.82 to 0.97). Comparison of single and multiple-trait analyses showed that selection based on the former was less efficient in the presence of GEI, with substantial losses (up to 10%) during selection. PMID:21931516

A Method for Improving Temporal and Spatial Resolution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J. S.; Andres, R. J.

2003-12-01

Using United States data, a method is developed to estimate the monthly consumption of solid, liquid and gaseous fossil fuels for each state in the union. This technique employs monthly sales data to estimate the relative monthly proportions of the total annual national fossil fuel use. These proportions are then used to estimate the total monthly carbon dioxide emissions for each state. To assess the success of this technique, the results from this method are compared with the data obtained from other independent methods. To determine the temporal success of the method, the resulting national time series is compared to the model produced by Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the current model being developed by T. J. Blasing and C. Broniak at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The University of North Dakota (UND) method fits well temporally with the results of the CDIAC and current ORNL research. To determine the success of the spatial component, the individual state results are compared to the annual state totals calculated by ORNL. Using ordinary least squares regression, the annual state totals of this method are plotted against the ORNL data. This allows a direct comparison of estimates in the form of ordered pairs against a one-to-one ideal correspondence line, and allows for easy detection of outliers in the results obtained by this estimation method. Analyzing the residuals of the linear regression model for each type of fuel permits an improved understanding of the strengths and shortcomings of the spatial component of this estimation technique. Spatially, the model is successful when compared to the current ORNL research. The primary advantages of this method are its ease of implementation and universal applicability. In general, this technique compares favorably to more labor-intensive methods that rely on more detailed data. The more detailed data is generally not available for most countries in the world. The methodology used here will be applied to other nations in the world to better understand their sub-annual cycle and sub-national spatial distribution of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption. Better understanding of the cycle will lead to better models used for predicting and responding to global environmental changes currently observed and anticipated.

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lilly-Salkowski, Tyler

2017-01-01

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) performs orbit determination (OD) for the Aqua and Aura satellites. Both satellites are located in low Earth orbit (LEO), and are part of what is considered the A-Train satellite constellation. Both spacecraft are currently in the science phase of their respective missions. The FDF has recently been tasked with delivering definitive covariance for each satellite.The main source of orbit determination used for these missions is the Orbit Determination Toolkit developed by Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). This software uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the states of both spacecraft. The filter incorporates force modelling, ground station and space network measurements to determine spacecraft states. It also generates a covariance at each measurement. This covariance can be useful for evaluating the overall performance of the tracking data measurements and the filter itself. An accurate covariance is also useful for covariance propagation which is utilized in collision avoidance operations. It is also valuable when attempting to determine if the current orbital solution will meet mission requirements in the future.This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The Chi-square statistic is calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance.For the EKF to correctly calculate the covariance, error models associated with tracking data measurements must be accurately tuned. Over estimating or under estimating these error values can have detrimental effects on the overall filter performance. The filter incorporates ground station measurements, which can be tuned based on the accuracy of the individual ground stations. It also includes measurements from the NASA space network (SN), which can be affected by the assumed accuracy of the TDRS satellite state at the time of the measurement.The force modelling in the EKF is also an important factor that affects the propagation accuracy and covariance sizing. The dominant force in the LEO orbit regime is the drag force caused by atmospheric drag. Accurate accounting of the drag force is especially important for the accuracy of the propagated state. The implementation of a box and wing model to improve drag estimation accuracy, and its overall effect on the covariance state is explored.The process of tuning the EKF for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types (Doppler and range), and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-square statistic, calculated based of the ODTK EKF solutions, are assessed versus accepted norms for the orbit regime.

Oxygen fugacity of mare basalts and the lunar mantle application of a new microscale oxybarometer based on the valence state of vanadium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shearer, C.K.; Karner, J.; Papike, J.J.

2004-05-25

Using the valence state of vanadium on a microscale in lunar volcanic glasses we have developed another approach to estimating the oxygen fugacity of mare basalts. The ability to estimate oxygen fugacities for mare basalts and to extend these observations to the lunar mantle is limited using bulk analysis techniques based on buffering assemblages or the valence state of iron. These limitations are due to reequilibration of mineral assemblages at subsolidus conditions, deviations of mineral compositions from thermodynamic ideality, size requirements, and the limits of the iron valence at very low fO{sub 2}. Still, these approaches have been helpful andmore » indicate that mare basalts crystallized at fO{sub 2} between the iron-wuestite buffer (IW) and the ilmenite breakdown reaction (ilmenite = rutile + iron). It has also been inferred from these estimates that the lunar mantle is also highly reduced lying at conditions below IW. Generally, these data cannot be used to determine if the mare basalts become increasingly reduced during transport from their mantle source and eruption at the lunar surface and if there are differences in fO{sub 2} among mare basalts or mantle sources. One promising approach to determining the fO2 of mare basalts is using the mean valence of vanadium (2+, 3+, 4+, 5+) determined on spots of a few micrometers in diameter using synchrotron x-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy. The average valence state of V in basaltic glasses is a function of fO{sub 2}, temperature, V coordination, and melt composition. Here, we report the initial results of this approach applied to lunar pyroclastic glasses.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE PAGES

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; ...

2018-01-05

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

2018-02-01

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m2 of suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.

Methods for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Mining in the United States, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelace, John K.

2009-01-01

The mining water-use category includes groundwater and surface water that is withdrawn and used for nonfuels and fuels mining. Nonfuels mining includes the extraction of ores, stone, sand, and gravel. Fuels mining includes the extraction of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Water is used for mineral extraction, quarrying, milling, and other operations directly associated with mining activities. For petroleum and natural gas extraction, water often is injected for secondary oil or gas recovery. Estimates of water withdrawals for mining are needed for water planning and management. This report documents methods used to estimate withdrawals of fresh and saline groundwater and surface water for mining during 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Fresh and saline groundwater and surface-water withdrawals during 2005 for nonfuels- and coal-mining operations in each county or county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands were estimated. Fresh and saline groundwater withdrawals for oil and gas operations in counties of six states also were estimated. Water withdrawals for nonfuels and coal mining were estimated by using mine-production data and water-use coefficients. Production data for nonfuels mining included the mine location and weight (in metric tons) of crude ore, rock, or mineral produced at each mine in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during 2004. Production data for coal mining included the weight, in metric tons, of coal produced in each county or county equivalent during 2004. Water-use coefficients for mined commodities were compiled from various sources including published reports and written communications from U.S. Geological Survey National Water-use Information Program (NWUIP) personnel in several states. Water withdrawals for oil and gas extraction were estimated for six States including California, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming, by using data from State agencies that regulate oil and gas extraction. Total water withdrawals for mining in a county were estimated by summing estimated water withdrawals for nonfuels mining, coal mining, and oil and gas extraction. The results of this study were distributed to NWUIP personnel in each State during 2007. NWUIP personnel were required to submit estimated withdrawals for numerous categories of use in their States to a national compilation team for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. NWUIP personnel had the option of submitting the estimates determined by using the methods described in this report, a modified version of these estimates, or their own set of estimates or reported data. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the methods described in this report may not be included in the national report; therefore the estimates are not presented herein in order to avoid potential inconsistencies with the national report. Water-use coefficients for specific minerals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of confidential production data provided by mining operations to the U.S. Geological Survey.

RCRA/UST, superfund, and EPCRA hotline training module. Introduction to toxics release inventory: Estimating releases (EPCRA section 313; 40 CFR part 372). Updated as of November 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-03-01

The module provides an overview of general techniques that owners and operators of reporting facilities may use to estimate their toxic chemical releases. It exlains the basic release estimation techniques used to determine the chemical quantities reported on the Form R and uses those techniques, along with fundamental chemical or physical principles and properties, to estimate releases of listed toxic chemicals. It converts units of mass, volume, and time. It states the rules governing significant figures and rounding techniques, and references general and industry-specific estimation documents.

Carbon balance of the Alaskan boreal forest

Treesearch

John Yarie; Tim Hammond

1996-01-01

Determination of the carbon balance in a broad forest region like the Alaskan boreal forest requires the development of a number of important environmental (state factors) classes to allow for the development of carbon balance estimates.

Systematics of ground state multiplets of atomic nuclei in the delta-interaction approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imasheva, L. T.; Ishkhanov, B. S.; Stepanov, M. E., E-mail: stepanov@depni.sinp.msu.ru

2015-12-15

Pairing forces between nucleons in an atomic nucleus strongly influence its structure. One of the manifestations of pair interaction is the ground state multiplet (GSM) formation in the spectrum of low-lying excited states of even–even nuclei. The value of GSM splitting is determined by the value of pair interaction of nucleons; for each isotope, it can be estimated on the basis of experimental nuclear masses. The quality of this estimate is characterized by the degree of reproduction of GSM levels in the nucleus. The GSM systematics in even–even nuclei with a pair of identical nucleons in addition to the filledmore » nuclear core is considered on the basis of delta interaction.« less

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Water use in Georgia by county for 2005; and water-use trends, 1980-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fanning, Julia L.; Trent, Victoria P.

2009-01-01

Consumptive water use was determined for each category of use and compiled for each county. Estimation techniques vary for each water-use category. While consumptive use varied for each county in 2005, from about 1 percent to nearly 100 percent of total withdrawals, consumptive-use estimates for the entire State totaled 1,310 Mgal/d, about 24 percent of total withdrawals.

Toward determining the lifetime occurrence of metastatic brain tumors estimated from 2007 United States cancer incidence data

PubMed Central

Davis, Faith G.; Dolecek, Therese A.; McCarthy, Bridget J.; Villano, John L.

2012-01-01

Few population estimates of brain metastasis in the United States are available, prompting this study. Our objective was to estimate the expected number of metastatic brain tumors that would subsequently develop among incident cancer cases for 1 diagnosis year in the United States. Incidence proportions for primary cancer sites known to develop brain metastasis were applied to United States cancer incidence data for 2007 that were retrieved from accessible data sets through Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Wonder) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Web sites. Incidence proportions were identified for cancer sites, reflecting 80% of all cancers. It was conservatively estimated that almost 70 000 new brain metastases would occur over the remaining lifetime of individuals who received a diagnosis in 2007 of primary invasive cancer in the United States. That is, 6% of newly diagnosed cases of cancer during 2007 would be expected to develop brain metastasis as a progression of their original cancer diagnosis; the most frequent sites for metastases being lung and bronchus and breast cancers. The estimated numbers of brain metastasis will be expected to be higher among white individuals, female individuals, and older age groups. Changing patterns in the occurrence of primary cancers, trends in populations at risk, effectiveness of treatments on survival, and access to those treatments will influence the extent of brain tumor metastasis at the population level. These findings provide insight on the patterns of brain tumor metastasis and the future burden of this condition in the United States. PMID:22898372

Toward determining the lifetime occurrence of metastatic brain tumors estimated from 2007 United States cancer incidence data.

PubMed

Davis, Faith G; Dolecek, Therese A; McCarthy, Bridget J; Villano, John L

2012-09-01

Few population estimates of brain metastasis in the United States are available, prompting this study. Our objective was to estimate the expected number of metastatic brain tumors that would subsequently develop among incident cancer cases for 1 diagnosis year in the United States. Incidence proportions for primary cancer sites known to develop brain metastasis were applied to United States cancer incidence data for 2007 that were retrieved from accessible data sets through Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Wonder) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Web sites. Incidence proportions were identified for cancer sites, reflecting 80% of all cancers. It was conservatively estimated that almost 70 000 new brain metastases would occur over the remaining lifetime of individuals who received a diagnosis in 2007 of primary invasive cancer in the United States. That is, 6% of newly diagnosed cases of cancer during 2007 would be expected to develop brain metastasis as a progression of their original cancer diagnosis; the most frequent sites for metastases being lung and bronchus and breast cancers. The estimated numbers of brain metastasis will be expected to be higher among white individuals, female individuals, and older age groups. Changing patterns in the occurrence of primary cancers, trends in populations at risk, effectiveness of treatments on survival, and access to those treatments will influence the extent of brain tumor metastasis at the population level. These findings provide insight on the patterns of brain tumor metastasis and the future burden of this condition in the United States.

Attitude determination of a high altitude balloon system. Part 2: Development of the parameter determination process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nigro, N. J.; Elkouh, A. F.

1975-01-01

The attitude of the balloon system is determined as a function of time if: (a) a method for simulating the motion of the system is available, and (b) the initial state is known. The initial state is obtained by fitting the system motion (as measured by sensors) to the corresponding output predicted by the mathematical model. In the case of the LACATE experiment the sensors consisted of three orthogonally oriented rate gyros and a magnetometer all mounted on the research platform. The initial state was obtained by fitting the angular velocity components measured with the gyros to the corresponding values obtained from the solution of the math model. A block diagram illustrating the attitude determination process employed for the LACATE experiment is shown. The process consists of three essential parts; a process for simulating the balloon system, an instrumentation system for measuring the output, and a parameter estimation process for systematically and efficiently solving the initial state. Results are presented and discussed.

A Direct Adaptive Control Approach in the Presence of Model Mismatch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Suresh M.; Tao, Gang; Khong, Thuan

2009-01-01

This paper considers the problem of direct model reference adaptive control when the plant-model matching conditions are violated due to abnormal changes in the plant or incorrect knowledge of the plant's mathematical structure. The approach consists of direct adaptation of state feedback gains for state tracking, and simultaneous estimation of the plant-model mismatch. Because of the mismatch, the plant can no longer track the state of the original reference model, but may be able to track a new reference model that still provides satisfactory performance. The reference model is updated if the estimated plant-model mismatch exceeds a bound that is determined via robust stability and/or performance criteria. The resulting controller is a hybrid direct-indirect adaptive controller that offers asymptotic state tracking in the presence of plant-model mismatch as well as parameter deviations.

Product code optimization for determinate state LDPC decoding in robust image transmission.

PubMed

Thomos, Nikolaos; Boulgouris, Nikolaos V; Strintzis, Michael G

2006-08-01

We propose a novel scheme for error-resilient image transmission. The proposed scheme employs a product coder consisting of low-density parity check (LDPC) codes and Reed-Solomon codes in order to deal effectively with bit errors. The efficiency of the proposed scheme is based on the exploitation of determinate symbols in Tanner graph decoding of LDPC codes and a novel product code optimization technique based on error estimation. Experimental evaluation demonstrates the superiority of the proposed system in comparison to recent state-of-the-art techniques for image transmission.

Initial attitude determination for the hipparcos satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van der Ha, Jozef C.

The present paper described the strategy and algorithms used during the initial on-ground three-axes attitude determination of ESA's astrometry satellite HIPPARCOS. The estimation is performed using calculated crossing times of identified stars over the Star Mapper's vertical and inclined slit systems as well as outputs from a set of rate-integrating gyros. Valid star transits in either of the two fields of view are expected to occur in average about every 30 s whereas the gyros are sampled at about 1 Hz. The state vector to be estimated consists of the three angles, three rates and three gyro drift rate components. Simulations have shown that convergence of the estimator is established within about 10 min and that the accuracies achieved are in the order of a few arcsec for the angles and a few milliarcsec per s for the rates. These stringent accuracies are in fact required for initialisation of subsequent autonomous on-board real-time attitude determination.

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stry, Greselda I.; Mook, D. Joseph

1991-01-01

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Remote sensing in Iowa agriculture. [cropland inventory, soils, forestland, and crop diseases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahlstede, J. P. (Principal Investigator); Carlson, R. E.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Results include the estimation of forested and crop vegetation acreages using the ERTS-1 imagery. The methods used to achieve these estimates still require refinement, but the results appear promising. Practical applications would be directed toward achieving current land use inventories of these natural resources. This data is presently collected by sampling type surveys. If ERTS-1 can observe this and area estimates can be determined accurately, then a step forward has been achieved. Cost benefit relationship will have to be favorable. Problems still exist in these estimation techniques due to the diversity of the scene observed in the ERTS-1 imagery covering other part of Iowa. This is due to influence of topography and soils upon the adaptability of the vegetation to specific areas of the state. The state mosaic produced from ERTS-1 imagery shows these patterns very well. Research directed to acreage estimates is continuing.

On state-of-charge determination for lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhe; Huang, Jun; Liaw, Bor Yann; Zhang, Jianbo

2017-04-01

Accurate estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) of a battery through its life remains challenging in battery research. Although improved precisions continue to be reported at times, almost all are based on regression methods empirically, while the accuracy is often not properly addressed. Here, a comprehensive review is set to address such issues, from fundamental principles that are supposed to define SOC to methodologies to estimate SOC for practical use. It covers topics from calibration, regression (including modeling methods) to validation in terms of precision and accuracy. At the end, we intend to answer the following questions: 1) can SOC estimation be self-adaptive without bias? 2) Why Ah-counting is a necessity in almost all battery-model-assisted regression methods? 3) How to establish a consistent framework of coupling in multi-physics battery models? 4) To assess the accuracy in SOC estimation, statistical methods should be employed to analyze factors that contribute to the uncertainty. We hope, through this proper discussion of the principles, accurate SOC estimation can be widely achieved.

Magmatic oxygen fugacity estimated using zircon-melt partitioning of cerium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smythe, Duane J.; Brenan, James M.

2016-11-01

Using a newly-calibrated relation for cerium redox equilibria in silicate melts (Smythe and Brenan, 2015), and an internally-consistent model for zircon-melt partitioning of Ce, we provide a method to estimate the prevailing redox conditions during crystallization of zircon-saturated magmas. With this approach, oxygen fugacities were calculated for samples from the Bishop tuff (USA), Toba tuff (Indonesia) and the Nain plutonic suite (Canada), which typically agree with independent estimates within one log unit or better. With the success of reproducing the fO2 of well-constrained igneous systems, we have applied our Ce-in-zircon oxygen barometer to estimating the redox state of Earth's earliest magmas. Using the composition of the Jack Hills Hadean zircons, combined with estimates of their parental magma composition, we determined the fO2 during zircon crystallization to be between FMQ -1.0 to +2.5 (where FMQ is the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer). Of the parental magmas considered, Archean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) compositions yield zircon-melt partitioning most similar to well-constrained modern suites (e.g., Sano et al., 2002). Although broadly consistent with previous redox estimates from the Jack Hills zircons, our results provide a more precise determination of fO2, narrowing the range for Hadean parental magmas by more than 8 orders of magnitude. Results suggest that relatively oxidized magmatic source regions, similar in oxidation state to that of 3.5 Ga komatiite suites, existed by ∼4.4 Ga.

Past and future freshwater use in the United States

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown

1999-01-01

Water use in the United States to the year 2040 is estimated by extending past trends in basic water-use determinants. Those trends are largely encouraging. Over the past 35 years, withdrawals in industry and at thermoelectric plants have steadily dropped per unit of output, and over the past 15 years some irrigated regions have also increased the efficiency of their...

Declining estimates of infertility in the United States: 1982-2002.

PubMed

Stephen, Elizabeth Hervey; Chandra, Anjani

2006-09-01

To determine if the decline in infertility has been uniform across subgroups. Periodic data from the National Fertility Survey and the National Survey of Family Growth were used to determine which factors contributed to the decline in 12-month infertility in the United States. National Survey of Family Growth, a periodic US nationally representative study. A nationally representative sample of married women aged 15-44 years, N = 15,303 for pooled data across 4 survey years. None. Estimates of infertility prevalence among married women aged 15-44 years. The decline in 12-month infertility in the United States from 8.5% in 1982 and 7.4% in 2002 was significant. This decline was evident in nearly all subgroups of married women. In the multivariate analysis, 12-month infertility was more likely among women who were older and nulliparous, were non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, and did not have a college degree. The decline in 12-month infertility was observed even after controlling for the compositional differences of the population over time. Among married women in the United States, there has been a significant decline in 12-month infertility, which cannot be explained by changes in the composition of the population from 1982-2002.

Predictive Sea State Estimation for Automated Ride Control and Handling - PSSEARCH

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huntsberger, Terrance L.; Howard, Andrew B.; Aghazarian, Hrand; Rankin, Arturo L.

2012-01-01

PSSEARCH provides predictive sea state estimation, coupled with closed-loop feedback control for automated ride control. It enables a manned or unmanned watercraft to determine the 3D map and sea state conditions in its vicinity in real time. Adaptive path-planning/ replanning software and a control surface management system will then use this information to choose the best settings and heading relative to the seas for the watercraft. PSSEARCH looks ahead and anticipates potential impact of waves on the boat and is used in a tight control loop to adjust trim tabs, course, and throttle settings. The software uses sensory inputs including IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit), stereo, radar, etc. to determine the sea state and wave conditions (wave height, frequency, wave direction) in the vicinity of a rapidly moving boat. This information can then be used to plot a safe path through the oncoming waves. The main issues in determining a safe path for sea surface navigation are: (1) deriving a 3D map of the surrounding environment, (2) extracting hazards and sea state surface state from the imaging sensors/map, and (3) planning a path and control surface settings that avoid the hazards, accomplish the mission navigation goals, and mitigate crew injuries from excessive heave, pitch, and roll accelerations while taking into account the dynamics of the sea surface state. The first part is solved using a wide baseline stereo system, where 3D structure is determined from two calibrated pairs of visual imagers. Once the 3D map is derived, anything above the sea surface is classified as a potential hazard and a surface analysis gives a static snapshot of the waves. Dynamics of the wave features are obtained from a frequency analysis of motion vectors derived from the orientation of the waves during a sequence of inputs. Fusion of the dynamic wave patterns with the 3D maps and the IMU outputs is used for efficient safe path planning.

Toward Empirical Estimation of the Total Value of Protecting Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Larry D.; Walsh, Richard G.; Loomis, John B.

1990-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a procedure to estimate a statistical demand function for the protection of rivers in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Other states and nations around the world face a similar problem of estimating how much they can afford to pay for the protection of rivers. The results suggest that in addition to the direct consumption benefits of onsite recreation, total value includes offsite consumption of the flow of information about these activities and resources consumed as preservation benefits. A sample of the general population of the state reports a willingness to pay rather than forego both types of utility. We recommended that offsite values be added to the value of onsite recreation use to determine the total value of rivers to society.

Quantifying confidence in density functional theory predictions of magnetic ground states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houchins, Gregory; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2017-10-01

Density functional theory (DFT) simulations, at the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) level, are being routinely used for material discovery based on high-throughput descriptor-based searches. The success of descriptor-based material design relies on eliminating bad candidates and keeping good candidates for further investigation. While DFT has been widely successfully for the former, oftentimes good candidates are lost due to the uncertainty associated with the DFT-predicted material properties. Uncertainty associated with DFT predictions has gained prominence and has led to the development of exchange correlation functionals that have built-in error estimation capability. In this work, we demonstrate the use of built-in error estimation capabilities within the BEEF-vdW exchange correlation functional for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the magnetic ground state of solids. We demonstrate this approach by calculating the uncertainty estimate for the energy difference between the different magnetic states of solids and compare them against a range of GGA exchange correlation functionals as is done in many first-principles calculations of materials. We show that this estimate reasonably bounds the range of values obtained with the different GGA functionals. The estimate is determined as a postprocessing step and thus provides a computationally robust and systematic approach to estimating uncertainty associated with predictions of magnetic ground states. We define a confidence value (c-value) that incorporates all calculated magnetic states in order to quantify the concurrence of the prediction at the GGA level and argue that predictions of magnetic ground states from GGA level DFT is incomplete without an accompanying c-value. We demonstrate the utility of this method using a case study of Li-ion and Na-ion cathode materials and the c-value metric correctly identifies that GGA-level DFT will have low predictability for NaFePO4F . Further, there needs to be a systematic test of a collection of plausible magnetic states, especially in identifying antiferromagnetic (AFM) ground states. We believe that our approach of estimating uncertainty can be readily incorporated into all high-throughput computational material discovery efforts and this will lead to a dramatic increase in the likelihood of finding good candidate materials.

Angular motion estimation using dynamic models in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit.

PubMed

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters.

Angular Motion Estimation Using Dynamic Models in a Gyro-Free Inertial Measurement Unit

PubMed Central

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters. PMID:22778586

20 CFR 609.14 - Payments to States.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., either in advance or by way of reimbursement, as may be determined by the Department, the sum that the.... An estimate may be made on the basis of a statistical, sampling, or other method agreed on by the...

Statistical Estimation of Rollover Risk

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-08-01

This report describes the results of a statistical analysis to determine the : probability of a rollover in a single vehicle accident. Over 39,000 accidents, : which included 4910 rollovers in the states of Texas, Maryland, and Washington were : exam...

Active Fault Near-Source Zones Within and Bordering the State of California for the 1997 Uniform Building Code

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; Toppozada, Tousson R.; Cao, T.; Cramer, C.H.; Reichle, M.S.; Bryant, W.A.

2000-01-01

The fault sources in the Project 97 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the state of California were used to construct maps for defining near-source seismic coefficients, Na and Nv, incorporated in the 1997 Uniform Building Code (ICBO 1997). The near-source factors are based on the distance from a known active fault that is classified as either Type A or Type B. To determine the near-source factor, four pieces of geologic information are required: (1) recognizing a fault and determining whether or not the fault has been active during the Holocene, (2) identifying the location of the fault at or beneath the ground surface, (3) estimating the slip rate of the fault, and (4) estimating the maximum earthquake magnitude for each fault segment. This paper describes the information used to produce the fault classifications and distances.

Maximum likelihood-based analysis of single-molecule photon arrival trajectories.

PubMed

Hajdziona, Marta; Molski, Andrzej

2011-02-07

In this work we explore the statistical properties of the maximum likelihood-based analysis of one-color photon arrival trajectories. This approach does not involve binning and, therefore, all of the information contained in an observed photon strajectory is used. We study the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and the efficiency of the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in selecting the true kinetic model. We focus on the low excitation regime where photon trajectories can be modeled as realizations of Markov modulated Poisson processes. The number of observed photons is the key parameter in determining model selection and parameter estimation. For example, the BIC can select the true three-state model from competing two-, three-, and four-state kinetic models even for relatively short trajectories made up of 2 × 10(3) photons. When the intensity levels are well-separated and 10(4) photons are observed, the two-state model parameters can be estimated with about 10% precision and those for a three-state model with about 20% precision.

Method for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Livestock in the United States, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelace, John K.

2009-01-01

Livestock water use includes ground water and surface water associated with livestock watering, feedlots, dairy operations, and other on-farm needs. The water may be used for drinking, cooling, sanitation, waste disposal, and other needs related to the animals. Estimates of water withdrawals for livestock are needed for water planning and management. This report documents a method used to estimate withdrawals of fresh ground water and surface water for livestock in 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Categories of livestock included dairy cattle, beef and other cattle, hogs and pigs, laying hens, broilers and other chickens, turkeys, sheep and lambs, all goats, and horses (including ponies, mules, burros, and donkeys). Use of the method described in this report could result in more consistent water-withdrawal estimates for livestock that can be used by water managers and planners to determine water needs and trends across the United States. Water withdrawals for livestock in 2005 were estimated by using water-use coefficients, in gallons per head per day for each animal type, and livestock-population data. Coefficients for various livestock for most States were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey water-use program personnel or U.S. Geological Survey water-use publications. When no coefficient was available for an animal type in a State, the median value of reported coefficients for that animal was used. Livestock-population data were provided by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. County estimates were further divided into ground-water and surface-water withdrawals for each county and county equivalent. County totals from 2005 were compared to county totals from 1995 and 2000. Large deviations from 1995 or 2000 livestock withdrawal estimates were investigated and generally were due to comparison with reported withdrawals, differences in estimation techniques, differences in livestock coefficients, or use of livestock-population data from different sources. The results of this study were distributed to U.S. Geological Survey water-use program personnel in each State during 2007. Water-use program personnel are required to submit estimated withdrawals for all categories of use in their States to the National Water-Use Information Program for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. Water-use program personnel had the option of submitting these estimates, a modified version of these estimates, or their own set of estimates or reported data. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the method described in this report are not presented herein to avoid potential inconsistencies with estimated withdrawals for livestock that will be presented in the national report, as different methods used by water-use personnel may result in different withdrawal estimates. Estimated withdrawals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of data for individual livestock operations.

Student Financial Aid: Need Determination Could Be Enhanced through Improvements in Education's Estimate of Applicants' State Tax Payments. Report to Congressional Requesters. GAO-05-105

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stroup, Sally L.

2005-01-01

In 2003, the Department of Education proposed an update to the state and other tax allowance, a part of the federal need analysis for student financial aid. Most federal aid as well as some state and institutional aid is awarded based on the student's cost of attendance less the student's and/or family's ability to pay these costs--known as the…

Coal Thickness Gauging Using Elastic Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarian, Soheil; Bar-Cohen, Yoseph

1999-01-01

The efforts of a mining crew can be optimized, if the thickness of the coal layers to be excavated is known before excavation. Wave propagation techniques can be used to estimate the thickness of the layer based on the contrast in the wave velocity between coal and rock beyond it. Another advantage of repeated wave measurement is that the state of the stress within the mine can be estimated. The state of the stress can be used in many safety-related decisions made during the operation of the mine. Given these two advantages, a study was carried out to determine the feasibility of the methodology. The results are presented herein.

Estimation of the Thermodynamic Efficiency of a Solid-State Cooler Based on the Multicaloric Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starkov, A. S.; Pakhomov, O. V.; Rodionov, V. V.; Amirov, A. A.; Starkov, I. A.

2018-03-01

The thermodynamic efficiency of using the multicaloric effect (μCE) in solid-state cooler systems has been studied in comparison to single-component caloric effects. This approach is illustrated by example of the Brayton cycle for μCE and magnetocaloric effect (MCE). Based on the results of experiments with Fe48Rh52-PbZr0.53Ti0.47O3 two-layer ferroic composite, the temperature dependence of the relative efficiency is determined and the temperature range is estimated in which the μCE is advantageous to MCE. The proposed theory of μCE is compared to experimental data.

Verification of satellite radar remote sensing based estimates of boreal and subalpine growing seasons using an ecosystem process model and surface biophysical measurement network information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, K. C.; Kimball, J. S.; Zimmerman, R.

2002-01-01

We employ daily surface Radar backscatter data from the SeaWinds Ku-band Scatterometer onboard Quikscat to estimate landscape freeze-thaw state and associated length of the seasonal non-frozen period as a surrogate for determining the annual growing season across boreal and subalpine regions of North America for 2000 and 2001.

Joint sparsity based heterogeneous data-level fusion for target detection and estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Ruixin; Zulch, Peter; Distasio, Marcello; Blasch, Erik; Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe

2017-05-01

Typical surveillance systems employ decision- or feature-level fusion approaches to integrate heterogeneous sensor data, which are sub-optimal and incur information loss. In this paper, we investigate data-level heterogeneous sensor fusion. Since the sensors monitor the common targets of interest, whose states can be determined by only a few parameters, it is reasonable to assume that the measurement domain has a low intrinsic dimensionality. For heterogeneous sensor data, we develop a joint-sparse data-level fusion (JSDLF) approach based on the emerging joint sparse signal recovery techniques by discretizing the target state space. This approach is applied to fuse signals from multiple distributed radio frequency (RF) signal sensors and a video camera for joint target detection and state estimation. The JSDLF approach is data-driven and requires minimum prior information, since there is no need to know the time-varying RF signal amplitudes, or the image intensity of the targets. It can handle non-linearity in the sensor data due to state space discretization and the use of frequency/pixel selection matrices. Furthermore, for a multi-target case with J targets, the JSDLF approach only requires discretization in a single-target state space, instead of discretization in a J-target state space, as in the case of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) or the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate that the proposed JSDLF approach achieves excellent performance with near real-time accurate target position and velocity estimates.

Guidelines for preparation of State water-use estimates for 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, Michael W.

2017-05-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated the use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals since 1950. This report describes the water-use categories and data elements used for the national water-use compilation conducted as part of the USGS National Water-Use Science Project. The report identifies sources of water-use information, provides standard methods and techniques for estimating water use at the county level, and outlines steps for preparing documentation for the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.As part of this USGS program to document water use on a national scale, estimates of water withdrawals for the categories of public supply, self-supplied domestic, industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric power are prepared for each county in each State, District, or territory by using the guidelines in this report. County estimates of water withdrawals for aquaculture, livestock, and mining are prepared for each State by using a county-based national model, although water-use programs in each State or Water Science Center have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals for these categories. Estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for thermoelectric power will be aggregated to the county level for each State by the national project; additionally, irrigation consumptive use at the county level will also be provided, although study chiefs in each State have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for these categories.Estimates of deliveries of water from public supplies for domestic use by county also will be prepared for each State. As a result, total domestic water use can be determined for each State by combining self-supplied domestic withdrawals and public-supplied domestic deliveries. Fresh groundwater and surface-water estimates will be prepared for all categories of use, and saline groundwater and surface-water estimates by county will be prepared for the categories of public supply, industrial, mining, and thermoelectric power. Power production for thermoelectric power and irrigated acres by irrigation system type will be compiled. If data are available, reclaimed-wastewater use will be compiled for the public-supply, industrial, mining, thermoelectric-power, and irrigation categories.Optional water-use categories are commercial, hydroelectric power, and wastewater treatment. Optional data elements are public-supply deliveries to commercial, industrial, and thermoelectric-power users; consumptive use (for categories other than thermoelectric power and irrigation); irrigation conveyance loss; and number of facilities. Aggregation of water-use data by stream basin (eight-digit hydrologic unit code) and principal aquifers also is optional.Water-use data compiled by the States will be stored in the USGS Aggregate Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). This database is a comprehensive aggregated database designed to store mandatory and optional data elements. AWUDS contains several routines that can be used for quality assurance and quality control of the data, and AWUDS produces tables of water-use data from the previous compilations.

Concentration dependency in nicotine skin penetration flux from aqueous solutions reflects vehicle induced changes in nicotine stratum corneum retention.

PubMed

Kuswahyuning, Rina; Roberts, Michael S

2014-06-01

This study sought to understand the mechanism by which the steady state flux of nicotine across the human skin from aqueous solutions is markedly decreased at higher nicotine concentrations. Nicotine's steady state flux through human epidermis and its amount in the stratum corneum for a range of aqueous nicotine solutions was determined using Franz diffusion cells, with the nicotine analysed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Nicotine's thermodynamic activity in the various solutions was estimated from its partial vapour pressure and stratum corneum hydration was determined using a corneometer. The amount of nicotine retained in the stratum corneum was estimated from the nicotine amount found in individual stratum corneum tape strips and a D-Squame determined weight for each strip. The observed steady state flux of nicotine across human epidermis was found to show a parabolic dependence on nicotine concentration, with the flux proportional to its thermodynamic activity up to a concentration of 48% w/w. The nicotine retention in the stratum corneum showed a similar dependency on concentration whereas the diffusivity of nicotine in the stratum corneum appeared to be concentration independent. This retention, in turn, could be estimated from the extent of stratum corneum hydration and the nicotine concentration in the applied solution and volume of water in the skin. Nonlinear dependency of nicotine skin flux on its concentration results from a dehydration induced decrease in its stratum corneum retention at higher concentration and not dehydration induced changes nicotine diffusivity in the stratum corneum.

Spectral and physicochemical properties of difluoroboranyls containing N,N-dimethylamino group studied by solvatochromic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jędrzejewska, Beata; Grabarz, Anna; Bartkowiak, Wojciech; Ośmiałowski, Borys

2018-06-01

The solvatochromism of the dyes was analyzed based on the four-parameter scale including: polarizability (SP), dipolarity (SdP), acidity (SA) and basicity (SB) parameters by method proposed by Catalán. The change of solvent to more polar caused the red shift of absorption and fluorescence band position. The frequency shifts manifest the change in the dipole moment upon excitation. The ground-state dipole moment of the difluoroboranyls was estimated based on changes in molecular polarization with temperature. Moreover, the Stokes shifts were used to calculate the excited state dipole moments of the dyes. For the calculation, the ground-state dipole moments and Onsager cavity radius were also determined theoretically using density functional theory (DFT). The experimentally determined excited-state dipole moments for the compounds are higher than the corresponding ground-state values. The increase in the dipole moment is described in terms of the nature of the excited state.

The Effect of Sensor Failure on the Attitude and Rate Estimation of MAP Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.; Harman, Richard R.

2003-01-01

This work describes two algorithms for computing the angular rate and attitude in case of a gyro and a Star Tracker failure in the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) satellite, which was placed in the L2 parking point from where it collects data to determine the origin of the universe. The nature of the problem is described, two algorithms are suggested, an observability study is carried out and real MAP data are used to determine the merit of the algorithms. It is shown that one of the algorithms yields a good estimate of the rates but not of the attitude whereas the other algorithm yields a good estimate of the rate as well as two of the three attitude angles. The estimation of the third angle depends on the initial state estimate. There is a contradiction between this result and the outcome of the observability analysis. An explanation of this contradiction is given in the paper. Although this work treats a particular spacecraft, its conclusions are more general.

Guidelines for preparation of State water-use estimates for 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutson, Susan S.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated the use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals since 1950. This report describes the water-use categories and data elements required for the 2005 national water-use compilation conducted as part of the USGS National Water Use Information Program. The report identifies sources of water-use information, provides standard methods and techniques for estimating water use at the county level, and outlines steps for preparing documentation for the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As part of this USGS program to document water use on a national scale for the year 2005, estimates of water withdrawals for the categories of public supply, self-supplied domestic, industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric power at the county level are prepared for each State using the guidelines in this report. Estimates of water withdrawals for aquaculture, livestock, and mining are prepared for each State using a county-based national model, although study chiefs in each State have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals for these categories. Estimates of deliveries of water from public supplies for domestic use by county also will be prepared for each State for 2005. As a result, domestic water use can be determined for each State by combining self-supplied domestic withdrawals and publicly supplied domestic deliveries. Fresh ground-water and surfacewater estimates will be prepared for all categories of use; and saline ground-water and surface-water estimates by county will be prepared for the categories of public supply, industrial, and thermoelectric power. Power production for thermoelectric power will be compiled for 2005. If data are available, reclaimed wastewater use will be compiled for the industrial and irrigation categories. Optional water-use categories are commercial, hydroelectric power, and wastewater treatment. Optional data elements are public-supply deliveries to commercial, industrial, and thermoelectric-power users; consumptive use; irrigation conveyance loss; and number of facilities. Aggregation of water-use data by eight-digit hydrologic cataloging unit and by principal aquifer also is optional. Water-use data compiled by the States will be stored in the USGS Aggregate Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). This database is a comprehensive aggregated database designed to store both mandatory and optional data elements. AWUDS contains several routines that can be used for quality assurance and quality control of the data, and produces tables of wateruse data compiled for 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000.

Spatiotemporal Local-Remote Senor Fusion (ST-LRSF) for Cooperative Vehicle Positioning

PubMed Central

Bhawiyuga, Adhitya

2018-01-01

Vehicle positioning plays an important role in the design of protocols, algorithms, and applications in the intelligent transport systems. In this paper, we present a new framework of spatiotemporal local-remote sensor fusion (ST-LRSF) that cooperatively improves the accuracy of absolute vehicle positioning based on two state estimates of a vehicle in the vicinity: a local sensing estimate, measured by the on-board exteroceptive sensors, and a remote sensing estimate, received from neighbor vehicles via vehicle-to-everything communications. Given both estimates of vehicle state, the ST-LRSF scheme identifies the set of vehicles in the vicinity, determines the reference vehicle state, proposes a spatiotemporal dissimilarity metric between two reference vehicle states, and presents a greedy algorithm to compute a minimal weighted matching (MWM) between them. Given the outcome of MWM, the theoretical position uncertainty of the proposed refinement algorithm is proven to be inversely proportional to the square root of matching size. To further reduce the positioning uncertainty, we also develop an extended Kalman filter model with the refined position of ST-LRSF as one of the measurement inputs. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed ST-LRSF framework can achieve high positioning accuracy for many different scenarios of cooperative vehicle positioning. PMID:29617341

Stationary spectroscopy of biotissues in vivo: Fluorescent studies of some pathological states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giraev, K. M.; Ashurbekov, N. A.; Medzhidov, R. T.

2003-11-01

The stationary spectra of autofluorescence, along with the reflection coefficient at the wavelength of excitation, are measured in vivo for some stomach tissues in the case of different pathological states (dysplasia, superficial gastritis, and cancer) using a nitrogen laser as the source of excitation (λrad=337.1 nm). The fluorescence spectra obtained are decomposed into Gaussian-Lorentzian components. It is found that, in development of dysplasia and tumor processes, at least seven groups of fluorophores can be distinguished that form the entire emission spectrum. The ratio between the fluorescence intensities of flavins and NAD(P)H is determined and the degree of respiratory activity of cells estimated for the states considered. The quantum yields of fluorescence of the biotissues under investigation are estimated.

Phase diagram and universality of the Lennard-Jones gas-liquid system.

PubMed

Watanabe, Hiroshi; Ito, Nobuyasu; Hu, Chin-Kun

2012-05-28

The gas-liquid phase transition of the three-dimensional Lennard-Jones particles system is studied by molecular dynamics simulations. The gas and liquid densities in the coexisting state are determined with high accuracy. The critical point is determined by the block density analysis of the Binder parameter with the aid of the law of rectilinear diameter. From the critical behavior of the gas-liquid coexisting density, the critical exponent of the order parameter is estimated to be β = 0.3285(7). Surface tension is estimated from interface broadening behavior due to capillary waves. From the critical behavior of the surface tension, the critical exponent of the correlation length is estimated to be ν = 0.63(4). The obtained values of β and ν are consistent with those of the Ising universality class.

Mean Recency Period for Estimation of HIV-1 Incidence with the BED-Capture EIA and Bio-Rad Avidity in Persons Diagnosed in the United States with Subtype B.

PubMed

Hanson, Debra L; Song, Ruiguang; Masciotra, Silvina; Hernandez, Angela; Dobbs, Trudy L; Parekh, Bharat S; Owen, S Michele; Green, Timothy A

2016-01-01

HIV incidence estimates are used to monitor HIV-1 infection in the United States. Use of laboratory biomarkers that distinguish recent from longstanding infection to quantify HIV incidence rely on having accurate knowledge of the average time that individuals spend in a transient state of recent infection between seroconversion and reaching a specified biomarker cutoff value. This paper describes five estimation procedures from two general statistical approaches, a survival time approach and an approach that fits binomial models of the probability of being classified as recently infected, as a function of time since seroconversion. We compare these procedures for estimating the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for two biomarkers used by the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for determination of HIV incidence, the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 incidence test (BED) and the avidity-based, modified Bio-Rad HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O ELISA (BRAI) assay. Collectively, 953 specimens from 220 HIV-1 subtype B seroconverters, taken from 5 cohorts, were tested with a biomarker assay. Estimates of MDRI using the non-parametric survival approach were 198.4 days (SD 13.0) for BED and 239.6 days (SD 13.9) for BRAI using cutoff values of 0.8 normalized optical density and 30%, respectively. The probability of remaining in the recent state as a function of time since seroconversion, based upon this revised statistical approach, can be applied in the calculation of annual incidence in the United States.

A method to determine residue-specific unfolded-state pKa values from analysis of stability changes in single mutant cycles.

PubMed

Shen, Jana K

2010-06-02

It is now widely recognized that the unfolded state of a protein in equilibrium with the native state under folding conditions may contain significant residual structures. However, due to technical difficulties residue-specific interactions in the unfolded state remain elusive. Here we introduce a method derived from the Wyman-Tanford theory to determine residue-specific pK(a)'s in the unfolded state. This method requires equilibrium stability measurements of the wild type and single-point mutants in which titrable residues are replaced with charge-neutral ones under two pH conditions. Application of the proposed approach reveals a highly depressed pK(a) for Asp8 in the unfolded state of the NTL9 protein. Knowledge of unfolded-state pK(a)'s enables quantitative estimation of the unfolded-state electrostatic effects on protein stability. It also provides valuable benchmarks for the improvement of force fields and validation of microscopic information from molecular dynamics simulations.

Kalman-variant estimators for state of charge in lithium-sulfur batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Propp, Karsten; Auger, Daniel J.; Fotouhi, Abbas; Longo, Stefano; Knap, Vaclav

2017-03-01

Lithium-sulfur batteries are now commercially available, offering high specific energy density, low production costs and high safety. However, there is no commercially-available battery management system for them, and there are no published methods for determining state of charge in situ. This paper describes a study to address this gap. The properties and behaviours of lithium-sulfur are briefly introduced, and the applicability of 'standard' lithium-ion state-of-charge estimation methods is explored. Open-circuit voltage methods and 'Coulomb counting' are found to have a poor fit for lithium-sulfur, and model-based methods, particularly recursive Bayesian filters, are identified as showing strong promise. Three recursive Bayesian filters are implemented: an extended Kalman filter (EKF), an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and a particle filter (PF). These estimators are tested through practical experimentation, considering both a pulse-discharge test and a test based on the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). Experimentation is carried out at a constant temperature, mirroring the environment expected in the authors' target automotive application. It is shown that the estimators, which are based on a relatively simple equivalent-circuit-network model, can deliver useful results. If the three estimators implemented, the unscented Kalman filter gives the most robust and accurate performance, with an acceptable computational effort.

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Flight control synthesis for flexible aircraft using Eigenspace assignment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, J. B.; Schmidt, D. K.

1986-01-01

The use of eigenspace assignment techniques to synthesize flight control systems for flexible aircraft is explored. Eigenspace assignment techniques are used to achieve a specified desired eigenspace, chosen to yield desirable system impulse residue magnitudes for selected system responses. Two of these are investigated. The first directly determines constant measurement feedback gains that will yield a close-loop system eigenspace close to a desired eigenspace. The second technique selects quadratic weighting matrices in a linear quadratic control synthesis that will asymptotically yield the close-loop achievable eigenspace. Finally, the possibility of using either of these techniques with state estimation is explored. Application of the methods to synthesize integrated flight-control and structural-mode-control laws for a large flexible aircraft is demonstrated and results discussed. Eigenspace selection criteria based on design goals are discussed, and for the study case it would appear that a desirable eigenspace can be obtained. In addition, the importance of state-space selection is noted along with problems with reduced-order measurement feedback. Since the full-state control laws may be implemented with dynamic compensation (state estimation), the use of reduced-order measurement feedback is less desirable. This is especially true since no change in the transient response from the pilot's input results if state estimation is used appropriately. The potential is also noted for high actuator bandwidth requirements if the linear quadratic synthesis approach is utilized. Even with the actuator pole location selected, a problem with unmodeled modes is noted due to high bandwidth. Some suggestions for future research include investigating how to choose an eigenspace that will achieve certain desired dynamics and stability robustness, determining how the choice of measurements effects synthesis results, and exploring how the phase relationships between desired eigenvector elements effects the synthesis results.

Reciprocal Sliding Friction Model for an Electro-Deposited Coating and Its Parameter Estimation Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyungmok; Lee, Jaewook

2016-01-01

This paper describes a sliding friction model for an electro-deposited coating. Reciprocating sliding tests using ball-on-flat plate test apparatus are performed to determine an evolution of the kinetic friction coefficient. The evolution of the friction coefficient is classified into the initial running-in period, steady-state sliding, and transition to higher friction. The friction coefficient during the initial running-in period and steady-state sliding is expressed as a simple linear function. The friction coefficient in the transition to higher friction is described with a mathematical model derived from Kachanov-type damage law. The model parameters are then estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. It is identified that estimated friction coefficients obtained by MCMC approach are in good agreement with measured ones. PMID:28773359

Petroleum exploration plays and resource estimates, 1989, onshore United States; Region 1, Alaska; Region 2, Pacific Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Richard B.

1993-01-01

This study provides brief discussions of the petroleum geology, play descriptions, and resource estimates of 220 individually assessed exploration plays in all 80 onshore geologic provinces within nine assessment regions of the continental United States in 1989; these 80 onshore provinces were assessed in connection with the determination of the Nation's estimated undiscovered resources of oil and gas. The present report covers the 25 provinces that make up Region 1, Alaska, and Region 2, Pacific Coast. It is our intention to issue Region 3, Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range, and Region 4, Rocky Mountains and Northern Great Plains, in book form as well. Regions 5 through 9 (West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, Gulf Coast, Midcontinent, Eastern Interior and Atlantic Coast) will be released individually, as Open-File Reports.

23 CFR 973.204 - Management systems requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the nationwide management systems, implementation schedule, data sources, including the need to accommodate State and local data, and cost estimate. (c) Indian tribes may develop, establish, and implement tribal management systems under a self-determination contract or self-governance annual funding agreement...

Determination of rainfall losses in Virginia, phase II : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-01-01

A procedure is presented by which regional unit hydrograph and loss rate parameters are estimated for the generation of design storm hydrographs for watershed in Virginia. The state is divided into seven hydrological regions, and unit hydrograph and ...

Historic Properties Report: Volunteer Army Ammunition Plant, Chattanooga, Tennessee.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-08-01

on file at AMCCOM Historcal Office. 3. Building use was determined by government category code; some support structures, such as change houses in the...preservation program to be carried out for the property. It should include a maintenance and repair schedule and estimated initial and annual costs . The...and estimated initial and annual costs . The preservation plan should be approved by the State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council in

Estimating virus occurrence using Bayesian modeling in multiple drinking water systems of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varughese, Eunice A.; Brinkman, Nichole E; Anneken, Emily M; Cashdollar, Jennifer S; Fout, G. Shay; Furlong, Edward T.; Kolpin, Dana W.; Glassmeyer, Susan T.; Keely, Scott P

2017-01-01

incorporated into a Bayesian model to more accurately determine viral load in both source and treated water. Results of the Bayesian model indicated that viruses are present in source water and treated water. By using a Bayesian framework that incorporates inhibition, as well as many other parameters that affect viral detection, this study offers an approach for more accurately estimating the occurrence of viral pathogens in environmental waters.

A stochastic hybrid systems based framework for modeling dependent failure processes

PubMed Central

Fan, Mengfei; Zeng, Zhiguo; Zio, Enrico; Kang, Rui; Chen, Ying

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a framework to model and analyze systems that are subject to dependent, competing degradation processes and random shocks. The degradation processes are described by stochastic differential equations, whereas transitions between the system discrete states are triggered by random shocks. The modeling is, then, based on Stochastic Hybrid Systems (SHS), whose state space is comprised of a continuous state determined by stochastic differential equations and a discrete state driven by stochastic transitions and reset maps. A set of differential equations are derived to characterize the conditional moments of the state variables. System reliability and its lower bounds are estimated from these conditional moments, using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and Markov inequality, respectively. The developed framework is applied to model three dependent failure processes from literature and a comparison is made to Monte Carlo simulations. The results demonstrate that the developed framework is able to yield an accurate estimation of reliability with less computational costs compared to traditional Monte Carlo-based methods. PMID:28231313

A stochastic hybrid systems based framework for modeling dependent failure processes.

PubMed

Fan, Mengfei; Zeng, Zhiguo; Zio, Enrico; Kang, Rui; Chen, Ying

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a framework to model and analyze systems that are subject to dependent, competing degradation processes and random shocks. The degradation processes are described by stochastic differential equations, whereas transitions between the system discrete states are triggered by random shocks. The modeling is, then, based on Stochastic Hybrid Systems (SHS), whose state space is comprised of a continuous state determined by stochastic differential equations and a discrete state driven by stochastic transitions and reset maps. A set of differential equations are derived to characterize the conditional moments of the state variables. System reliability and its lower bounds are estimated from these conditional moments, using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and Markov inequality, respectively. The developed framework is applied to model three dependent failure processes from literature and a comparison is made to Monte Carlo simulations. The results demonstrate that the developed framework is able to yield an accurate estimation of reliability with less computational costs compared to traditional Monte Carlo-based methods.

Sensitivity and specificity of auditory steady‐state response testing

PubMed Central

Rabelo, Camila Maia; Schochat, Eliane

2011-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The ASSR test is an electrophysiological test that evaluates, among other aspects, neural synchrony, based on the frequency or amplitude modulation of tones. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of auditory steady‐state response testing in detecting lesions and dysfunctions of the central auditory nervous system. METHODS: Seventy volunteers were divided into three groups: those with normal hearing; those with mesial temporal sclerosis; and those with central auditory processing disorder. All subjects underwent auditory steady‐state response testing of both ears at 500 Hz and 2000 Hz (frequency modulation, 46 Hz). The difference between auditory steady‐state response‐estimated thresholds and behavioral thresholds (audiometric evaluation) was calculated. RESULTS: Estimated thresholds were significantly higher in the mesial temporal sclerosis group than in the normal and central auditory processing disorder groups. In addition, the difference between auditory steady‐state response‐estimated and behavioral thresholds was greatest in the mesial temporal sclerosis group when compared to the normal group than in the central auditory processing disorder group compared to the normal group. DISCUSSION: Research focusing on central auditory nervous system (CANS) lesions has shown that individuals with CANS lesions present a greater difference between ASSR‐estimated thresholds and actual behavioral thresholds; ASSR‐estimated thresholds being significantly worse than behavioral thresholds in subjects with CANS insults. This is most likely because the disorder prevents the transmission of the sound stimulus from being in phase with the received stimulus, resulting in asynchronous transmitter release. Another possible cause of the greater difference between the ASSR‐estimated thresholds and the behavioral thresholds is impaired temporal resolution. CONCLUSIONS: The overall sensitivity of auditory steady‐state response testing was lower than its overall specificity. Although the overall specificity was high, it was lower in the central auditory processing disorder group than in the mesial temporal sclerosis group. Overall sensitivity was also lower in the central auditory processing disorder group than in the mesial temporal sclerosis group. PMID:21437442

Quantum Discord Determines the Interferometric Power of Quantum States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girolami, Davide; Souza, Alexandre M.; Giovannetti, Vittorio; Tufarelli, Tommaso; Filgueiras, Jefferson G.; Sarthour, Roberto S.; Soares-Pinto, Diogo O.; Oliveira, Ivan S.; Adesso, Gerardo

2014-05-01

Quantum metrology exploits quantum mechanical laws to improve the precision in estimating technologically relevant parameters such as phase, frequency, or magnetic fields. Probe states are usually tailored to the particular dynamics whose parameters are being estimated. Here we consider a novel framework where quantum estimation is performed in an interferometric configuration, using bipartite probe states prepared when only the spectrum of the generating Hamiltonian is known. We introduce a figure of merit for the scheme, given by the worst-case precision over all suitable Hamiltonians, and prove that it amounts exactly to a computable measure of discord-type quantum correlations for the input probe. We complement our theoretical results with a metrology experiment, realized in a highly controllable room-temperature nuclear magnetic resonance setup, which provides a proof-of-concept demonstration for the usefulness of discord in sensing applications. Discordant probes are shown to guarantee a nonzero phase sensitivity for all the chosen generating Hamiltonians, while classically correlated probes are unable to accomplish the estimation in a worst-case setting. This work establishes a rigorous and direct operational interpretation for general quantum correlations, shedding light on their potential for quantum technology.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey. Book 5, Laboratory Analysis. Chapter A5, Methods for Determination of Radioactive Substances in Water and Fluvial Sediments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thatcher, L. L.; And Others

Analytical methods for determining important components of fission and natural radioactivity found in water are reported. The discussion of each method includes conditions for application of the method, a summary of the method, interferences, required apparatus, procedures, calculations and estimation of precision. Isotopes considered are…

20 CFR 429.208 - How do you determine the award? Is the settlement of my claim final?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... beyond economical repair to the United States, in which case no deduction for salvage value will be made... cost of its repair; (2) The actual or estimated cost of its repair; or (3) The actual value at the time of its loss, damage, or destruction. The actual value is determined by using the current replacement...

Determination of the polarization states of an arbitrary polarized terahertz beam: Vectorial vortex analysis

PubMed Central

Wakayama, Toshitaka; Higashiguchi, Takeshi; Oikawa, Hiroki; Sakaue, Kazuyuki; Washio, Masakazu; Yonemura, Motoki; Yoshizawa, Toru; Tyo, J. Scott; Otani, Yukitoshi

2015-01-01

Vectorial vortex analysis is used to determine the polarization states of an arbitrarily polarized terahertz (0.1–1.6 THz) beam using THz achromatic axially symmetric wave (TAS) plates, which have a phase retardance of Δ = 163° and are made of polytetrafluorethylene. Polarized THz beams are converted into THz vectorial vortex beams with no spatial or wavelength dispersion, and the unknown polarization states of the incident THz beams are reconstructed. The polarization determination is also demonstrated at frequencies of 0.16 and 0.36 THz. The results obtained by solving the inverse source problem agree with the values used in the experiments. This vectorial vortex analysis enables a determination of the polarization states of the incident THz beam from the THz image. The polarization states of the beams are estimated after they pass through the TAS plates. The results validate this new approach to polarization detection for intense THz sources. It could find application in such cutting edge areas of physics as nonlinear THz photonics and plasmon excitation, because TAS plates not only instantaneously elucidate the polarization of an enclosed THz beam but can also passively control THz vectorial vortex beams. PMID:25799965

Fast and Reliable Thermodynamic Approach for Determining the Protonation State of the Asp Dyad.

PubMed

Huang, Jinfeng; Sun, Bin; Yao, Yuan; Liu, Junjun

2017-09-25

The protonation state of the asp dyad is significantly important in revealing enzymatic mechanisms and developing drugs. However, it is hard to determine by calculating free energy changes between possible protonation states, because the free energy changes due to protein conformational flexibility are usually much larger than those originating from different locations of protons. Sophisticated and computationally expensive methods such as free energy perturbation, thermodynamic integration (TI), and quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics are therefore usually used for this purpose. In the present study, we have developed a simple thermodynamic approach to effectively eliminating the free energy changes arising from protein conformational flexibility and estimating the free energy changes only originated from the locations of protons, which provides a fast and reliable method for determining the protonation state of asp dyads. The test of this approach on a total of 15 asp dyad systems, including BACE-1 and HIV-1 protease, shows that the predictions from this approach are all consistent with experiments or with the computationally expensive TI calculations. It is clear that our thermodynamic approach could be used to rapidly and reliably determine the protonation state of the asp dyad.

Determination of the polarization states of an arbitrary polarized terahertz beam: vectorial vortex analysis.

PubMed

Wakayama, Toshitaka; Higashiguchi, Takeshi; Oikawa, Hiroki; Sakaue, Kazuyuki; Washio, Masakazu; Yonemura, Motoki; Yoshizawa, Toru; Tyo, J Scott; Otani, Yukitoshi

2015-03-24

Vectorial vortex analysis is used to determine the polarization states of an arbitrarily polarized terahertz (0.1-1.6 THz) beam using THz achromatic axially symmetric wave (TAS) plates, which have a phase retardance of Δ = 163° and are made of polytetrafluorethylene. Polarized THz beams are converted into THz vectorial vortex beams with no spatial or wavelength dispersion, and the unknown polarization states of the incident THz beams are reconstructed. The polarization determination is also demonstrated at frequencies of 0.16 and 0.36 THz. The results obtained by solving the inverse source problem agree with the values used in the experiments. This vectorial vortex analysis enables a determination of the polarization states of the incident THz beam from the THz image. The polarization states of the beams are estimated after they pass through the TAS plates. The results validate this new approach to polarization detection for intense THz sources. It could find application in such cutting edge areas of physics as nonlinear THz photonics and plasmon excitation, because TAS plates not only instantaneously elucidate the polarization of an enclosed THz beam but can also passively control THz vectorial vortex beams.

Using reweighting and free energy surface interpolation to predict solid-solid phase diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schieber, Natalie P.; Dybeck, Eric C.; Shirts, Michael R.

2018-04-01

Many physical properties of small organic molecules are dependent on the current crystal packing, or polymorph, of the material, including bioavailability of pharmaceuticals, optical properties of dyes, and charge transport properties of semiconductors. Predicting the most stable crystalline form at a given temperature and pressure requires determining the crystalline form with the lowest relative Gibbs free energy. Effective computational prediction of the most stable polymorph could save significant time and effort in the design of novel molecular crystalline solids or predict their behavior under new conditions. In this study, we introduce a new approach using multistate reweighting to address the problem of determining solid-solid phase diagrams and apply this approach to the phase diagram of solid benzene. For this approach, we perform sampling at a selection of temperature and pressure states in the region of interest. We use multistate reweighting methods to determine the reduced free energy differences between T and P states within a given polymorph and validate this phase diagram using several measures. The relative stability of the polymorphs at the sampled states can be successively interpolated from these points to create the phase diagram by combining these reduced free energy differences with a reference Gibbs free energy difference between polymorphs. The method also allows for straightforward estimation of uncertainties in the phase boundary. We also find that when properly implemented, multistate reweighting for phase diagram determination scales better with the size of the system than previously estimated.

Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

2010-01-01

We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in formulating harvest management strategies.

Stress estimation in reservoirs using an integrated inverse method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazuyer, Antoine; Cupillard, Paul; Giot, Richard; Conin, Marianne; Leroy, Yves; Thore, Pierre

2018-05-01

Estimating the stress in reservoirs and their surroundings prior to the production is a key issue for reservoir management planning. In this study, we propose an integrated inverse method to estimate such initial stress state. The 3D stress state is constructed with the displacement-based finite element method assuming linear isotropic elasticity and small perturbations in the current geometry of the geological structures. The Neumann boundary conditions are defined as piecewise linear functions of depth. The discontinuous functions are determined with the CMA-ES (Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy) optimization algorithm to fit wellbore stress data deduced from leak-off tests and breakouts. The disregard of the geological history and the simplified rheological assumptions mean that only the stress field, statically admissible and matching the wellbore data should be exploited. The spatial domain of validity of this statement is assessed by comparing the stress estimations for a synthetic folded structure of finite amplitude with a history constructed assuming a viscous response.

Robust Fault Detection for Aircraft Using Mixed Structured Singular Value Theory and Fuzzy Logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, Emmanuel G.

2000-01-01

The purpose of fault detection is to identify when a fault or failure has occurred in a system such as an aircraft or expendable launch vehicle. The faults may occur in sensors, actuators, structural components, etc. One of the primary approaches to model-based fault detection relies on analytical redundancy. That is the output of a computer-based model (actually a state estimator) is compared with the sensor measurements of the actual system to determine when a fault has occurred. Unfortunately, the state estimator is based on an idealized mathematical description of the underlying plant that is never totally accurate. As a result of these modeling errors, false alarms can occur. This research uses mixed structured singular value theory, a relatively recent and powerful robustness analysis tool, to develop robust estimators and demonstrates the use of these estimators in fault detection. To allow qualitative human experience to be effectively incorporated into the detection process fuzzy logic is used to predict the seriousness of the fault that has occurred.

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

A subagging regression method for estimating the qualitative and quantitative state of groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young

2017-08-01

A subsample aggregating (subagging) regression (SBR) method for the analysis of groundwater data pertaining to trend-estimation-associated uncertainty is proposed. The SBR method is validated against synthetic data competitively with other conventional robust and non-robust methods. From the results, it is verified that the estimation accuracies of the SBR method are consistent and superior to those of other methods, and the uncertainties are reasonably estimated; the others have no uncertainty analysis option. To validate further, actual groundwater data are employed and analyzed comparatively with Gaussian process regression (GPR). For all cases, the trend and the associated uncertainties are reasonably estimated by both SBR and GPR regardless of Gaussian or non-Gaussian skewed data. However, it is expected that GPR has a limitation in applications to severely corrupted data by outliers owing to its non-robustness. From the implementations, it is determined that the SBR method has the potential to be further developed as an effective tool of anomaly detection or outlier identification in groundwater state data such as the groundwater level and contaminant concentration.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2003-01-01

Regional equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood-peak discharges at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed by means of ordinary and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression techniques. One-variable, simple equations and three-variable, full-model equations were developed on the basis of selected basin characteristics and flood-frequency estimates determined for 305 streamflow-gaging stations in Ohio and adjacent states. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 39 to 49 percent for the simple equations, and from about 34 to 41 percent for the full-model equations. Flood-frequency estimates determined by means of log-Pearson Type III analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III estimates and the regression estimates. Values of explanatory variables used in the regression models were determined from digital spatial data sets by means of a geographic information system (GIS), with the exception of drainage area, which was determined by digitizing the area within basin boundaries manually delineated on topographic maps. Use of GIS-based explanatory variables represents a major departure in methodology from that described in previous reports on estimating flood-frequency characteristics of Ohio streams. Examples are presented illustrating application of the regression equations to ungaged sites on ungaged and gaged streams. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site on the same stream. A region-of-influence method, which employs a computer program to estimate flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites with similar characteristics, was also tested and compared to the GLS full-model equations. For all recurrence intervals, the GLS full-model equations had superior prediction accuracy relative to the simple equations and therefore are recommended for use.

Determinants of the Generosity of Pension Plans for Public School Teachers, 1982-2006. Conference Paper 2009-05

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Robert L.; Craig, Lee A.

2009-01-01

We offer a concise history of teacher retirement plans in the United States, highlighting the increase in the generosity of the plans over the past 25 years. We employ data from plans in all fifty states to estimate the impact of a set of social and economic variables on the plans' replacement rates for a hypothetical teacher. We find that, at the…

Supporting Students with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chalfant, Logan; Rose, Karen; Whalon, Kelly

2017-01-01

Approximately one in 68 children in the United States has an autism spectrum disorder (ASD), according to official estimates (CDC 2016). Although students with ASD have no typical learning profile, many have trouble organizing information, connecting past and present experiences/events, linking concepts, determining relevant from extraneous…

Accuracy assessment: The statistical approach to performance evaluation in LACIE. [Great Plains corridor, United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, A. G.; Feiveson, A. H.; Chhikara, R. S.; Hsu, E. M. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

A statistical methodology was developed to check the accuracy of the products of the experimental operations throughout crop growth and to determine whether the procedures are adequate to accomplish the desired accuracy and reliability goals. It has allowed the identification and isolation of key problems in wheat area yield estimation, some of which have been corrected and some of which remain to be resolved. The major unresolved problem in accuracy assessment is that of precisely estimating the bias of the LACIE production estimator. Topics covered include: (1) evaluation techniques; (2) variance and bias estimation for the wheat production estimate; (3) the 90/90 evaluation; (4) comparison of the LACIE estimate with reference standards; and (5) first and second order error source investigations.

The measurement of disability weights for 18 prevalent acute poisoning conditions.

PubMed

Asadi, R; Afshari, R; Dadpour, B

2016-10-01

Disability weights (DWs) are used in disease burden studies, with the calculation of the weight of the disability as years lived with disability versus years of lost life accounting for mortalities. Currently, there is a single DW score available for poisoning, which is considered to be a single health state. This makes it difficult to evaluate the differing burdens of poisonings involving various substances/conditions in comparison with other health states in countries with different patterns of substance abuse. The aim of this study is therefore to estimate the DWs of 18 common poisonings based on the expert elicitation method. A panel of 10 medical clinicians who were familiar with the clinical aspects of different poisonings estimated the DWs of 50 health states by interpolating them on a calibrated Visual Analogue Scale. The DWs of some poisonings, such as alcohol, cannabis and heroin, had been estimated in previous studies and so were used to determine the external consistency of our panel. As a matter of routine, the DWs could vary on a scale between 0 (best health state) and 1 (worst health state). Statistical analysis showed that both the internal (Cronbach's α = 0.912) and external consistency of the panel were acceptable. The DWs for the different poisonings were estimated along a range from 0.830 for severe aluminium phosphide to 0.022 for mild benzodiazepine. Different poisonings should be weighted differently since they vary widely. Unfortunately, they are currently all weighted the same. © The Author(s) 2015.

Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Methodologies were developed for estimating flood magnitudes at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated or slightly regulated streams in New Jersey. Regression equations that incorporate basin characteristics were developed to estimate flood magnitude and frequency for streams throughout the State by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. Relations between flood-frequency estimates based on streamflow-gaging-station discharge and basin characteristics were determined by multiple regression analysis, and weighted by effective years of record. The State was divided into five hydrologically similar regions to refine the regression equations. The regression analysis indicated that flood discharge, as determined by the streamflow-gaging-station annual peak flows, is related to the drainage area, main channel slope, percentage of lake and wetland areas in the basin, population density, and the flood-frequency region, at the 95-percent confidence level. The standard errors of estimate for the various recurrence-interval floods ranged from 48.1 to 62.7 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2007 and basin characteristics determined using geographic information system techniques for 254 streamflow-gaging stations were used for the regression analysis. Drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations range from 0.18 to 779 mi2. Peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 191 streamflow-gaging stations located in New Jersey were used, along with peak-flow data for stations located in adjoining States, including 25 stations in Pennsylvania, 17 stations in New York, 16 stations in Delaware, and 5 stations in Maryland. Streamflow records for selected stations outside of New Jersey were included in the present study because hydrologic, physiographic, and geologic boundaries commonly extend beyond political boundaries. The StreamStats web application was developed cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., and was designed for national implementation. This web application has been recently implemented for use in New Jersey. This program used in conjunction with a geographic information system provides the computation of values for selected basin characteristics, estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies, and statistics for stream locations in New Jersey chosen by the user, whether the site is gaged or ungaged.

Search-based optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Ward C.

2003-01-01

The problem of determining the minimum cost hypothetical ancestral sequences for a given cladogram is known to be NP-complete (Wang and Jiang, 1994). Traditionally, point estimations of hypothetical ancestral sequences have been used to gain heuristic, upper bounds on cladogram cost. These include procedures with such diverse approaches as non-additive optimization of multiple sequence alignment, direct optimization (Wheeler, 1996), and fixed-state character optimization (Wheeler, 1999). A method is proposed here which, by extending fixed-state character optimization, replaces the estimation process with a search. This form of optimization examines a diversity of potential state solutions for cost-efficient hypothetical ancestral sequences and can result in greatly more parsimonious cladograms. Additionally, such an approach can be applied to other NP-complete phylogenetic optimization problems such as genomic break-point analysis. c2003 The Willi Hennig Society. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Simulation analysis of photometric data for attitude estimation of unresolved space objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xiaoping; Gou, Ruixin; Liu, Hao; Hu, Heng; Wang, Yang

2017-10-01

The attitude information acquisition of unresolved space objects, such as micro-nano satellites and GEO objects under the way of ground-based optical observations, is a challenge to space surveillance. In this paper, a useful method is proposed to estimate the SO attitude state according to the simulation analysis of photometric data in different attitude states. The object shape model was established and the parameters of the BRDF model were determined, then the space object photometric model was established. Furthermore, the photometric data of space objects in different states are analyzed by simulation and the regular characteristics of the photometric curves are summarized. The simulation results show that the photometric characteristics are useful for attitude inversion in a unique way. Thus, a new idea is provided for space object identification in this paper.

Temperature and redox path of biotite-bearing intrusives: A method of estimation applied to S- and I-type granites from Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkhard, Dorothee J. M.

1991-05-01

Estimations of the oxidation state and development of ƒO 2 during magmatic evolution are usually not possible because ƒO 2 is a function of temperature (and pressure). If two independent equations for ƒO 2 = ƒO 2(T) can be obtained, ƒO 2 and the corresponding temperature can be estimated. For biotite-bearing rocks an estimation of ƒO 2 (bio) can be combined with an estimation of ƒO 2 (rock). This latter estimation requires an extrapolation of high-temperature data because low-temperature data are not available. The combination of the two equations provides a quadratic equation in T with the common (negative) solution: Tint= 1/4 c 2{- k1-2 c 1-√(k 1+2 c 1) 2+8 c 2k 2} which permits back calculation of ƒO 2. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated for typical S-type, ilmenite, and I-type, magnetite granites from Australia. Two distinct oxidation states are obtained. It is suggested that the availability of H 2O during granite emplacement largely determines ƒO 2 conditions.

Excited-state redox properties of ruthenium(II) phthalocyanine from electron-transfer quenching

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prasad, D.R.; Ferraudi, G.

1982-09-30

Electron-transfer reactions between the lowest-lying triplet state, /sup 3/..pi pi../sup */, of ruthenium (phthalocyanine)(pyridine)/sub 2/ and various nitroaromatic compounds have been studied by laser and conventional flash photolysis. Quenching rate constants determined for the oxidation of the excited state have been treated according to the Marcus-Hush theory. A self-exchange rate constant K approx. 10/sup 7/ M/sup -1/ x/sup -1/ was determined for the self-exchange reaction between the /sup 3/..pi pi../sup */ and radical cation, Ru(ph)(py)/sub 2//sup +/. Such a value indicates that the major component to the Franck-Condon reorganizational energy is the outer-sphere contribution. The photochemical properties of the phthalocyaninesmore » are discussed in terms of the redox potentials estimate for various excited states.« less

Low-flow characteristics of Indiana streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, J.A.

1983-01-01

Knowledge of low-flow data for Indiana streams is essential to the planners and developers of water resources for municipal, industrial, and recreational uses in the State. Low-flow data for 219 continuous-record gaging stations through the 1978 water year and for some stations since then are presented in tables and curves. Flow-duration and low-flow-frequency data were estimated or determined for continuous-record stations having more than 10 years of record. In addition, low-flow-frequency data were estimated for 248 partial-record stations. Methods for estimating these data are included in the report. (USGS)

Proposing water balance method for water availability estimation in Indonesian regional spatial planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juniati, A. T.; Sutjiningsih, D.; Soeryantono, H.; Kusratmoko, E.

2018-01-01

The water availability (WA) of a region is one of important consideration in both the formulation of spatial plans and the evaluation of the effectiveness of actual land use in providing sustainable water resources. Information on land-water needs vis-a-vis their availability in a region determines the state of the surplus or deficit to inform effective land use utilization. How to calculate water availability have been described in the Guideline in Determining the Carrying Capacity of the Environment in Regional Spatial Planning. However, the method of determining the supply and demand of water on these guidelines is debatable since the determination of WA in this guideline used a rational method. The rational method is developed the basis for storm drain design practice and it is essentially a peak discharge method peak discharge calculation method. This paper review the literature in methods of water availability estimation which is described descriptively, and present arguments to claim that water balance method is a more fundamental and appropriate tool in water availability estimation. A better water availability estimation method would serve to improve the practice in preparing formulations of Regional Spatial Plan (RSP) as well as evaluating land use capacity in providing sustainable water resources.

Investigating plausible mechanisms for the photo-induced partial unfolding of a globular protein

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, James E.

Two hypotheses are proposed to explain the photo-induced unfolding of β-lactoglobulin (BLG) that occurs when non-covalently bound to a dye molecule, meso-tetrakis (p-sulfonatophenyl) porphyrin (TSPP), and illuminated by a laser in the post-Tanford transition configuration. The first involves a photo-induced electron transfer from the porphyrin to the protein. The second involves the production of kynurenine by singlet oxygen that is generated during photo-excitation of the porphyrin. To evaluate these hypotheses, a series of computational and experimental results have been combined to establish the physical state of the BLG-TSPP complex and to estimate the likelihood of a post-irradiation event to initiate the partial unfolding. Determining the binding site location is crucial to establish the position of the photo-induced events and the likely end-product. A study of the vibronic state of the BLG-TSPP complex using resonant Raman and absorption spectroscopy coupled with density functional theory (DFT) and docking simulations is used to estimate the location of the binding site. Once the binding site is found, molecular dynamics simulations of the post-irradiation event relaxations in the protein are used to estimate the resulting secondary structure. This structure is compared to experimental estimates of the secondary structure of the unfolded protein to determine which hypothesis is the most likely mechanism to explain the unfolding.

Prevalence of circumcision among men and boys aged 14 to 59 years in the United States, National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2005-2010.

PubMed

Introcaso, Camille E; Xu, Fujie; Kilmarx, Peter H; Zaidi, Akbar; Markowitz, Lauri E

2013-07-01

In 2009, an estimated 3590 new heterosexually acquired HIV infections occurred in males in the United States. Three randomized controlled trials demonstrated that male circumcision decreased a man's risk for HIV acquisition through heterosexual sex. We describe circumcision prevalence in US males and determine circumcision prevalence among males potentially at increased risk for heterosexually acquired HIV infection. We estimated circumcision prevalence among men and boys aged 14 to 59 years using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2005-2010. We defined men and boys with 2 or more female partners in the last year as potentially at increased risk for heterosexually acquired HIV infection. Estimated circumcision prevalence was 80.5%. Prevalence varied significantly by year of birth, race/ethnicity, health insurance type, and family income. Circumcision prevalence among men and boys reporting 2 or more female partners in the last year was 80.4%, which corresponded to an estimated 3.5 million uncircumcised men and boys potentially at increased risk for heterosexually acquired HIV infection. Of these men and boys, 48.3% lacked health insurance. Circumcision prevalence in the United States differs by demographic group, and half of uncircumcised men and boys potentially at increased risk for heterosexually acquired HIV are uninsured. These data could inform recommendations and cost analyses concerning circumcision in the United States.

Estimated Demand for Women's Health Services by 2020

PubMed Central

Dall, Timothy M.; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Storm, Michael V.; Elwell, Erika C.

2013-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the demand for women's health care by 2020 using today's national utilization standards. Methods This descriptive study incorporated the most current national data resources to design a simulation model to create a health and economic profile for a representative sample of women from each state. Demand was determined utilizing equations about projected use of obstetrics-gynecology (ob-gyn) services. Applying patient profile and health care demand equations, we estimated the demand for providers in 2010 in each state for comparison with supply based on the 2010 American Medical Association Masterfile. U.S. Census Bureau population projections were used to project women's health care demands in 2020. Results The national demand for women's health care is forecast to grow by 6% by 2020. Most (81%) ob-gyn related services will be for women of reproductive age (18–44 years old). Growth in demand is forecast to be highest in states with the greatest population growth (Texas, Florida), where supply is currently less than adequate (western United States), and among Hispanic women. This increase in demand by 2020 will translate into a need for physicians or nonphysician clinicians, which is clinically equivalent to 2,090 full-time ob-gyns. Conclusion Using today's national norms of ob-gyn related services, a modest growth in women's health care demands is estimated by 2020 that will require a larger provider workforce. PMID:23829185

Estimated demand for women's health services by 2020.

PubMed

Dall, Timothy M; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Storm, Michael V; Elwell, Erika C; Rayburn, William F

2013-07-01

To estimate the demand for women's health care by 2020 using today's national utilization standards. This descriptive study incorporated the most current national data resources to design a simulation model to create a health and economic profile for a representative sample of women from each state. Demand was determined utilizing equations about projected use of obstetrics-gynecology (ob-gyn) services. Applying patient profile and health care demand equations, we estimated the demand for providers in 2010 in each state for comparison with supply based on the 2010 American Medical Association Masterfile. U.S. Census Bureau population projections were used to project women's health care demands in 2020. The national demand for women's health care is forecast to grow by 6% by 2020. Most (81%) ob-gyn related services will be for women of reproductive age (18-44 years old). Growth in demand is forecast to be highest in states with the greatest population growth (Texas, Florida), where supply is currently less than adequate (western United States), and among Hispanic women. This increase in demand by 2020 will translate into a need for physicians or nonphysician clinicians, which is clinically equivalent to 2,090 full-time ob-gyns. Using today's national norms of ob-gyn related services, a modest growth in women's health care demands is estimated by 2020 that will require a larger provider workforce.

Using Onboard Telemetry for MAVEN Orbit Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lam, Try; Trawny, Nikolas; Lee, Clifford

2013-01-01

Determination of the spacecraft state has been traditional done using radiometric tracking data before and after the atmosphere drag pass. This paper describes our approach and results to include onboard telemetry measurements in addition to radiometric observables to refine the reconstructed trajectory estimate for the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Mission (MAVEN). Uncertainties in the Mars atmosphere models, combined with non-continuous tracking degrade navigation accuracy, making MAVEN a key candidate for using onboard telemetry data to help complement its orbit determination process.

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2011-01-01

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty. Also, in its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch algorithms. The generation of this direct, empirical form of the state error covariance matrix is independent of the dimensionality of the observations. Mixed degrees of freedom for an observation set are allowed. As is the case with any simple, empirical sample variance problems, the presented approach offers an opportunity (at least in the case of weighted least squares) to investigate confidence interval estimates for the error covariance matrix elements. The diagonal or variance terms of the error covariance matrix have a particularly simple form to associate with either a multiple degree of freedom chi-square distribution (more approximate) or with a gamma distribution (less approximate). The off diagonal or covariance terms of the matrix are less clear in their statistical behavior. However, the off diagonal covariance matrix elements still lend themselves to standard confidence interval error analysis. The distributional forms associated with the off diagonal terms are more varied and, perhaps, more approximate than those associated with the diagonal terms. Using a simple weighted least squares sample problem, results obtained through use of the proposed technique are presented. The example consists of a simple, two observer, triangulation problem with range only measurements. Variations of this problem reflect an ideal case (perfect knowledge of the range errors) and a mismodeled case (incorrect knowledge of the range errors).

Estimation and modeling of forest attributes across large spatial scales using BiomeBGC, high-resolution imagery, LiDAR data, and inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golinkoff, Jordan Seth

The accurate estimation of forest attributes at many different spatial scales is a critical problem. Forest landowners may be interested in estimating timber volume, forest biomass, and forest structure to determine their forest's condition and value. Counties and states may be interested to learn about their forests to develop sustainable management plans and policies related to forests, wildlife, and climate change. Countries and consortiums of countries need information about their forests to set global and national targets to deal with issues of climate change and deforestation as well as to set national targets and understand the state of their forest at a given point in time. This dissertation approaches these questions from two perspectives. The first perspective uses the process model Biome-BGC paired with inventory and remote sensing data to make inferences about a current forest state given known climate and site variables. Using a model of this type, future climate data can be used to make predictions about future forest states as well. An example of this work applied to a forest in northern California is presented. The second perspective of estimating forest attributes uses high resolution aerial imagery paired with light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing data to develop statistical estimates of forest structure. Two approaches within this perspective are presented: a pixel based approach and an object based approach. Both approaches can serve as the platform on which models (either empirical growth and yield models or process models) can be run to generate inferences about future forest state and current forest biogeochemical cycling.

An analysis of approach navigation accuracy and guidance requirements for the grand tour mission to the outer planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, D. W.

1971-01-01

The navigation and guidance process for the Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus planetary encounter phases of the 1977 Grand Tour interior mission was simulated. Reference approach navigation accuracies were defined and the relative information content of the various observation types were evaluated. Reference encounter guidance requirements were defined, sensitivities to assumed simulation model parameters were determined and the adequacy of the linear estimation theory was assessed. A linear sequential estimator was used to provide an estimate of the augmented state vector, consisting of the six state variables of position and velocity plus the three components of a planet position bias. The guidance process was simulated using a nonspherical model of the execution errors. Computation algorithms which simulate the navigation and guidance process were derived from theory and implemented into two research-oriented computer programs, written in FORTRAN.

Event-triggered H∞ state estimation for semi-Markov jumping discrete-time neural networks with quantization.

PubMed

Rakkiyappan, R; Maheswari, K; Velmurugan, G; Park, Ju H

2018-05-17

This paper investigates H ∞ state estimation problem for a class of semi-Markovian jumping discrete-time neural networks model with event-triggered scheme and quantization. First, a new event-triggered communication scheme is introduced to determine whether or not the current sampled sensor data should be broad-casted and transmitted to the quantizer, which can save the limited communication resource. Second, a novel communication framework is employed by the logarithmic quantizer that quantifies and reduces the data transmission rate in the network, which apparently improves the communication efficiency of networks. Third, a stabilization criterion is derived based on the sufficient condition which guarantees a prescribed H ∞ performance level in the estimation error system in terms of the linear matrix inequalities. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the correctness of the proposed scheme. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Kalman filter and optimal smoother estimates of spacecraft attitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, J.

1994-01-01

Given a valid system model and adequate observability, a Kalman filter will converge toward the true system state with error statistics given by the estimated error covariance matrix. The errors generally do not continue to decrease. Rather, a balance is reached between the gain of information from new measurements and the loss of information during propagation. The errors can be further reduced, however, by a second pass through the data with an optimal smoother. This algorithm obtains the optimally weighted average of forward and backward propagating Kalman filters. It roughly halves the error covariance by including future as well as past measurements in each estimate. This paper investigates whether such benefits actually accrue in the application of an optimal smoother to spacecraft attitude determination. Tests are performed both with actual spacecraft data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and with simulated data for which the true state vector and noise statistics are exactly known.

Three essays on energy and economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peach, Nathanael David

2011-12-01

This dissertation explores the relationship between energy and economic growth. Chapter Two, Three, and Four examine the interaction of energy-related measures and economic outcomes by applying different methodologies across various spatial dimensions. Chapter Two shows that increases in energy consumption are necessary for increases in state level economic growth to occur. Chapter Three estimates a simultaneous supply and demand energy market at the state level. This system allows for estimates of structural elasticities to be obtained. Findings indicate that energy supply is considerably more elastic than energy demand. Energy demand is found to be determined by responses to short run shocks rather than long run processes. Chapter Four estimates the impact of changes in various elements of governance and institutional quality impact genuine investment within an economy. Increases in democracy are predicted to decrease genuine investment in energy-rich nations. The dissertation concludes with Chapter Five.

Brazil Fire Characterization and Burn Area Estimation Using the Airborne Infrared Disaster Assessment (AIRDAS) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brass, J. A.; Riggan, P. J.; Ambrosia, V. G.; Lockwood, R. N.; Pereira, J. A.; Higgins, R. G.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

Remotely sensed estimations of regional and global emissions from biomass combustion have been used to characterize fire behavior, determine fire intensity, and estimate burn area. Highly temporal, low resolution satellite data have been used to calculate estimates of fire numbers and area burned. These estimates of fire activity and burned area have differed dramatically, resulting in a wide range of predictions on the ecological and environmental impacts of fires. As part of the Brazil/United States Fire Initiative, an aircraft campaign was initiated in 1992 and continued in 1994. This multi-aircraft campaign was designed to assist in the characterization of fire activity, document fire intensity and determine area burned over prescribed, agricultural and wildland fires in the savanna and forests of central Brazil. Using a unique, multispectral scanner (AIRDAS), designed specifically for fire characterization, a variety of fires and burned areas were flown with a high spatial and high thermal resolution scanner. The system was used to measure flame front size, rate of spread, ratio of smoldering to flaming fronts and fire intensity. In addition, long transects were flown to determine the size of burned areas within the cerrado and transitional ecosystems. The authors anticipate that the fire activity and burned area estimates reported here will lead to enhanced information for precise regional trace gas prediction.

Oral Health Disparities as Determined by Selected Healthy People 2020 Oral Health Objectives for the United States, ...

MedlinePlus

... status of the civilian noninstitutionalized U.S. population. The survey consists of interviews conducted in participants' homes and standardized physical examinations in mobile examination centers. The sample design includes oversampling to obtain reliable estimates of health ...

Determination of oleanolic acid in human plasma and its association with olive oil intake in healthy Spanish adults within the EPIC Spain cohort study.

PubMed

Buckland, Genevieve; Pastor, Antoni; Lujan-Barroso, Leila; Gonzalez, Carlos Alberto; Travier, Noemie; Amiano, Pilar; Huerta, José María; Agudo, Antonio; Navarro, Carmen; Chirlaque, María Dolores; Sánchez, Maria-José; Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel; Barricarte, Aurelio; Ardanaz, Eva; Dorronsoro, Miren; Molinuevo, Amaia; Quirós, José Ramón; de la Torre, Rafael

2017-08-01

Oleanolic acid (OA) is an important triterpenic compound found in olive oil, however little is known about its concentrations in human plasma. We aimed to determine plasma OA levels in a healthy Spanish population and compare them with estimates of dietary olive oil intake. The final study sample included 141 individuals randomly selected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Spanish cohort. Dietary olive oil intake was estimated using validated dietary history questionnaires. OA concentrations were determined in plasma (from the participants' stored blood samples) using a HPLC-MS method. Correlation coefficients between OA and olive oil intake were calculated, adjusting for center; sex; age; consumption of olives, apples, grapes, and red wine; and fasting state. The mean OA concentration in olive oil nonconsumers was 0.72 ng/mL (SD 0.82), while in the high olive oil intake group it was 1.32 ng/mL (SD 1.14). The fully adjusted partial Spearman correlations coefficients reached 0.36 (p-value < 0.001) overall, varying minimally by sex and fasting state. This is the first study providing steady-state concentrations of triterpenes in humans. The results show that there was low-to-moderate correlation between OA concentrations and olive oil intake in this population. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Armed Forces Recreation Center-Orlando

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-09-21

million annually (1995 value ) to HCMF. PKF Consulting stated that IG, DoD, estimates of cash flow are understated, and that AFRC-Orlando can attain an...took the corrected 1995 value of major repairs identified by PKF Consulting ($21.1 million corrected) and escalated the cost to the year 2020, at...to determine whether MWR standards of financial performance were met, and to determine whether the terms of the lease agreement were fair and

Simplified rotor load models and fatigue damage estimates for offshore wind turbines.

PubMed

Muskulus, M

2015-02-28

The aim of rotor load models is to characterize and generate the thrust loads acting on an offshore wind turbine. Ideally, the rotor simulation can be replaced by time series from a model with a few parameters and state variables only. Such models are used extensively in control system design and, as a potentially new application area, structural optimization of support structures. Different rotor load models are here evaluated for a jacket support structure in terms of fatigue lifetimes of relevant structural variables. All models were found to be lacking in accuracy, with differences of more than 20% in fatigue load estimates. The most accurate models were the use of an effective thrust coefficient determined from a regression analysis of dynamic thrust loads, and a novel stochastic model in state-space form. The stochastic model explicitly models the quasi-periodic components obtained from rotational sampling of turbulent fluctuations. Its state variables follow a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Although promising, more work is needed on how to determine the parameters of the stochastic model and before accurate lifetime predictions can be obtained without comprehensive rotor simulations. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Trajectory prediction for ballistic missiles based on boost-phase LOS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeddanapudi, Murali; Bar-Shalom, Yaakov

1997-10-01

This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the trajectory of a tactical ballistic missile using line of sight (LOS) measurements from one or more passive sensors (typically satellites). The major difficulties of this problem include: the estimation of the unknown time of launch, incorporation of (inaccurate) target thrust profiles to model the target dynamics during the boost phase and an overall ill-conditioning of the estimation problem due to poor observability of the target motion via the LOS measurements. We present a robust estimation procedure based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that provides both the target state estimate and error covariance taking into consideration the complications mentioned above. An important consideration in the defense against tactical ballistic missiles is the determination of the target position and error covariance at the acquisition range of a surveillance radar in the vicinity of the impact point. We present a systematic procedure to propagate the target state and covariance to a nominal time, when it is within the detection range of a surveillance radar to obtain a cueing volume. Mont Carlo simulation studies on typical single and two sensor scenarios indicate that the proposed algorithms are accurate in terms of the estimates and the estimator calculated covariances are consistent with the errors.

Rotational spectra in the ν2 vibrationally excited states of MgNC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagi, E.; Kawaguchi, K.; Takano, S.; Hirano, T.

1996-01-01

The pure rotational spectra of MgNC in the ν2 (bending) vibrationally excited states were observed in the 310-380 GHz region to study the linearity of the molecule. The observed 90 spectral lines were assigned to the transitions in the v2=1-5 states and analyzed to determine a set of molecular constants in each state. The bending vibrational frequency was estimated to be 86 cm-1 from the l-type doubling constant of the v2=1 state. The interval of the Φ and Π states in v2=3 was determined to be 29.2280(24) cm-1, giving the anharmonicity constant xll=3.8611(9) cm-1 with one standard deviation in parentheses, which indicates that the molecule has a linear form. However, somewhat peculiar properties were recognized in dependence of the observed l-type resonance and vibration-rotation constants on the v2 vibrational quantum number, suggesting an effect of anharmonicity.

Application of an automatic approach to calibrate the NEMURO nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton food web model in the Oyashio region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Shin-ichi; Yoshie, Naoki; Okunishi, Takeshi; Ono, Tsuneo; Okazaki, Yuji; Kuwata, Akira; Hashioka, Taketo; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Kishi, Michio J.; Nakamachi, Miwa; Shimizu, Yugo; Kakehi, Shigeho; Saito, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Kazutaka; Tadokoro, Kazuaki; Kusaka, Akira; Kasai, Hiromi

2010-10-01

The Oyashio region in the western North Pacific supports high biological productivity and has been well monitored. We applied the NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) model to simulate the nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton dynamics. Determination of parameters values is very important, yet ad hoc calibration methods are often used. We used the automatic calibration software PEST (model-independent Parameter ESTimation), which has been used previously with NEMURO but in a system without ontogenetic vertical migration of the large zooplankton functional group. Determining the performance of PEST with vertical migration, and obtaining a set of realistic parameter values for the Oyashio, will likely be useful in future applications of NEMURO. Five identical twin simulation experiments were performed with the one-box version of NEMURO. The experiments differed in whether monthly snapshot or averaged state variables were used, in whether state variables were model functional groups or were aggregated (total phytoplankton, small plus large zooplankton), and in whether vertical migration of large zooplankton was included or not. We then applied NEMURO to monthly climatological field data covering 1 year for the Oyashio, and compared model fits and parameter values between PEST-determined estimates and values used in previous applications to the Oyashio region that relied on ad hoc calibration. We substituted the PEST and ad hoc calibrated parameter values into a 3-D version of NEMURO for the western North Pacific, and compared the two sets of spatial maps of chlorophyll- a with satellite-derived data. The identical twin experiments demonstrated that PEST could recover the known model parameter values when vertical migration was included, and that over-fitting can occur as a result of slight differences in the values of the state variables. PEST recovered known parameter values when using monthly snapshots of aggregated state variables, but estimated a different set of parameters with monthly averaged values. Both sets of parameters resulted in good fits of the model to the simulated data. Disaggregating the variables provided to PEST into functional groups did not solve the over-fitting problem, and including vertical migration seemed to amplify the problem. When we used the climatological field data, simulated values with PEST-estimated parameters were closer to these field data than with the previously determined ad hoc set of parameter values. When these same PEST and ad hoc sets of parameter values were substituted into 3-D-NEMURO (without vertical migration), the PEST-estimated parameter values generated spatial maps that were similar to the satellite data for the Kuroshio Extension during January and March and for the subarctic ocean from May to November. With non-linear problems, such as vertical migration, PEST should be used with caution because parameter estimates can be sensitive to how the data are prepared and to the values used for the searching parameters of PEST. We recommend the usage of PEST, or other parameter optimization methods, to generate first-order parameter estimates for simulating specific systems and for insertion into 2-D and 3-D models. The parameter estimates that are generated are useful, and the inconsistencies between simulated values and the available field data provide valuable information on model behavior and the dynamics of the ecosystem.

Conceptual framework for describing selected urban and community impacts of federal energy policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, F.A,; Marcus, A.A.; Keller, D.

1980-06-01

A conceptual framework is presented for describing selected urban and community impacts of Federal energy policies. The framework depends on a simple causal model. The outputs of the model are impacts, changes in the state of the world of particular interest to policymakers. At any given time, a set of determinants account for the state of the world with respect to an impact category. Application of the model to a particular impact category requires: establishing a definition and measure for the impact category and identifying the determinants of these impacts. Analysis of the impact of a particular policy requires themore » following: identifying the policy and its effects (as estimated by others), isolating any effects that themselves constitute an urban and community impact, identifying any effects that change the value of determinants, and describing the impact with reference to the new values of determinants. This report provides a framework for these steps. Three impacts addressed are: neighborhood stability, housing availability, and quality and availability of public services. In each chapter, a definition and measure for the impact are specified; its principal determinants are identified; how the causal model can be used to estimate impacts by applying it to three illustrative Federal policies (domestic oil price decontrol, building energy performance standards, and increased Federal aid for mass transit) is demonstrated. (MCW)« less

Determining the Oxygen Fugacity of Lunar Pyroclastic Glasses Using Vanadium Valence - An Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karner, J. M.; Sutton, S. R.; Papike, J. J.; Shearer, C. K.; Jones, J. H.; Newville, M.

2004-01-01

We have been developing an oxygen barometer based on the valence state of V (V(2+), V(3+), V(4+), and V(5+)) in solar system basaltic glasses. The V valence is determined by synchrotron micro x-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES), which uses x-ray absorption associated with core-electronic transitions (absorption edges) to reveal a pre-edge peak whose intensity is directly proportional to the valence state of an element. XANES has advantages over other techniques that determine elemental valence because measurements can be made non-destructively in air and in situ on conventional thin sections at a micrometer spatial resolution with elemental sensitivities of approx. 100 ppm. Recent results show that fO2 values derived from the V valence technique are consistent with fO2 estimates determined by other techniques for materials that crystallized above the IW buffer. The fO2's determined by V valence (IW-3.8 to IW-2) for the lunar pyroclastic glasses, however, are on the order of 1 to 2.8 log units below previous estimates. Furthermore, the calculated fO2's decrease with increasing TiO2 contents from the A17 VLT to the A17 Orange glasses. In order to investigate these results further, we have synthesized lunar green and orange glasses and examined them by XANES.

Determination of the Solar Energy Microclimate of the United States Using Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderharr, T. H.; Ellis, J. S.

1978-01-01

The determination of total solar energy reaching the ground over the United States using measurements from meteorological satellites as the basic data set is examined. The methods of satellite data processing are described. Uncertainty analysis and comparison of results with well calibrated surface pyranometers are used to estimate the probable error in the satellite-based determination of ground insolation. It is 10 to 15 percent for daily information, and about 5 percent for monthly values. However, the natural space and time variability of insolation is much greater than the uncertainty in the method. The most important aspect of the satellite-based technique is the ability to determine the solar energy reaching the ground over small areas where no other measurements are available. Thus, it complements the widely spaced solar radiation measurement network of ground stations.

Estimating Health-State Utility for Economic Models in Clinical Studies: An ISPOR Good Research Practices Task Force Report.

PubMed

Wolowacz, Sorrel E; Briggs, Andrew; Belozeroff, Vasily; Clarke, Philip; Doward, Lynda; Goeree, Ron; Lloyd, Andrew; Norman, Richard

Cost-utility models are increasingly used in many countries to establish whether the cost of a new intervention can be justified in terms of health benefits. Health-state utility (HSU) estimates (the preference for a given state of health on a cardinal scale where 0 represents dead and 1 represents full health) are typically among the most important and uncertain data inputs in cost-utility models. Clinical trials represent an important opportunity for the collection of health-utility data. However, trials designed primarily to evaluate efficacy and safety often present challenges to the optimal collection of HSU estimates for economic models. Careful planning is needed to determine which of the HSU estimates may be measured in planned trials; to establish the optimal methodology; and to plan any additional studies needed. This report aimed to provide a framework for researchers to plan the collection of health-utility data in clinical studies to provide high-quality HSU estimates for economic modeling. Recommendations are made for early planning of health-utility data collection within a research and development program; design of health-utility data collection during protocol development for a planned clinical trial; design of prospective and cross-sectional observational studies and alternative study types; and statistical analyses and reporting. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Colonoscopy demand and capacity in New Hampshire.

PubMed

Butterly, Lynn; Olenec, Christopher; Goodrich, Martha; Carney, Patricia; Dietrich, Allen

2007-01-01

Screening for colorectal cancer has been clearly shown to decrease the incidence and mortality from this disease. Accurate information about the demand and capacity for screening, particularly with colonoscopy, is critical in planning screening strategies. National assessments have recently begun; estimates of smaller geographic regions should improve the accuracy of national estimates, as well as inform strategies for individual states. This study evaluates the demand and capacity for colonoscopy in the state of New Hampshire. All endoscopy sites in the state of New Hampshire were contacted to determine their number of endoscopists, monthly colonoscopies, and estimates of the percentage of colonoscopy done for screening. Barriers to increasing current capacity were also assessed. The capacity estimates were compared to demand estimates based on population census figures. Data were collected in 2003 to 2004 and analyzed in 2005 to 2006. One hundred fourteen endoscopists at 36 centers performed 49,352 colonoscopies in 2002, an average of 39 to 43 total monthly colonoscopies per endoscopist. Approximately 60% were estimated to have been done for screening. Estimated demand was approximately twice the available capacity for screening and surveillance. The impact of factors such as compliance, percent screening, and population growth were assessed to inform future screening strategies. In 2002, demand for screening colonoscopy in New Hampshire for patients aged more than 50 years was approximately twice the available capacity. However, if the assessed screening capacity of 2002 were to increase by 20%, combined with a target of 60% population compliance with screening as an initial goal, the demand for colonoscopy in New Hampshire would be met.

Joint estimation over multiple individuals improves behavioural state inference from animal movement data.

PubMed

Jonsen, Ian

2016-02-08

State-space models provide a powerful way to scale up inference of movement behaviours from individuals to populations when the inference is made across multiple individuals. Here, I show how a joint estimation approach that assumes individuals share identical movement parameters can lead to improved inference of behavioural states associated with different movement processes. I use simulated movement paths with known behavioural states to compare estimation error between nonhierarchical and joint estimation formulations of an otherwise identical state-space model. Behavioural state estimation error was strongly affected by the degree of similarity between movement patterns characterising the behavioural states, with less error when movements were strongly dissimilar between states. The joint estimation model improved behavioural state estimation relative to the nonhierarchical model for simulated data with heavy-tailed Argos location errors. When applied to Argos telemetry datasets from 10 Weddell seals, the nonhierarchical model estimated highly uncertain behavioural state switching probabilities for most individuals whereas the joint estimation model yielded substantially less uncertainty. The joint estimation model better resolved the behavioural state sequences across all seals. Hierarchical or joint estimation models should be the preferred choice for estimating behavioural states from animal movement data, especially when location data are error-prone.

Estimation of electronic coupling in π-stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: Correction of the two-state model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voityuk, Alexander A.

2006-02-01

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽda=(E2-E1)μ12/Rda+(2E3-E1-E2)2μ13μ23/Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model.

Estimation of electronic coupling in pi-stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model.

PubMed

Voityuk, Alexander A

2006-02-14

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of V(da) because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a pi stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as V(da) = (E(2)-E(1))mu(12)R(da) + (2E(3)-E(1)-E(2))2mu(13)mu(23)R(da) (2), where E(1), E(2), and E(3) are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, mu(ij) is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and R(da) is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model.

A Simple Estimate of the Mass of the Positron.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Goronwy Tudor

1993-01-01

Discusses a small part of the final state of a high-energy neutrino interaction: a head-on collision of a positron and a stationary electron. Provides a bubble chamber picture and describes the resulting particle effects. Uses momentum to determine the mass of the positron. (MVL)

Epidemiology and Antimicrobial Resistance of International Travel-Associated Campylobacter Infections in the United States, 2005–2011

PubMed Central

Palmer, Amanda; Wymore, Katie; Clogher, Paula; Oosmanally, Nadine; Robinson, Trisha; Lathrop, Sarah; Karr, Jillian; Hatch, Julie; Dunn, John; Ryan, Patricia; Blythe, David

2014-01-01

Objectives. The objective of this study was to determine the role international travel plays in US Campylobacter epidemiology and antimicrobial resistance. Methods. In this study, epidemiological and antimicrobial resistance data, encompassing the years 2005 to 2011, from 10 sites participating in the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network were linked. The 10 sites are represented by 7 states that conducted surveillance on a statewide level, and 3 states which conducted county-level surveillance. Cases of Campylobacter among persons with history of international travel in the week prior to illness were compared with cases among individuals with no international travel. Results. Approximately 18% of Campylobacter infections were estimated to be associated with international travel, and 60% of international travel-associated infections had a quinolone-resistant Campylobacter isolate. Conclusions. We confirm that international travel plays a significant role in campylobacteriosis diagnosed in the United States. Recognizing this is important to both medical management decisions and understanding burden and attribution estimates of US campylobacteriosis and antibiotic-resistant campylobacteriosis. PMID:24832415

Fault detection and diagnosis in a spacecraft attitude determination system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirmoradi, F. N.; Sassani, F.; de Silva, C. W.

2009-09-01

This paper presents a new scheme for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) in spacecraft attitude determination (AD) sensors. An integrated attitude determination system, which includes measurements of rate and angular position using rate gyros and vector sensors, is developed. Measurement data from all sensors are fused by a linearized Kalman filter, which is designed based on the system kinematics, to provide attitude estimation and the values of the gyro bias. Using this information the erroneous sensor measurements are corrected, and unbounded sensor measurement errors are avoided. The resulting bias-free data are used in the FDD scheme. The FDD algorithm uses model-based state estimation, combining the information from the rotational dynamics and kinematics of a spacecraft with the sensor measurements to predict the future sensor outputs. Fault isolation is performed through extended Kalman filters (EKFs). The innovation sequences of EKFs are monitored by several statistical tests to detect the presence of a failure and to localize the failures in all AD sensors. The isolation procedure is developed in two phases. In the first phase, two EKFs are designed, which use subsets of measurements to provide state estimates and form residuals, which are used to verify the source of the fault. In the second phase of isolation, testing of multiple hypotheses is performed. The generalized likelihood ratio test is utilized to identify the faulty components. In the scheme developed in this paper a relatively small number of hypotheses is used, which results in faster isolation and highly distinguishable fault signatures. An important feature of the developed FDD scheme is that it can provide attitude estimations even if only one type of sensors is functioning properly.

Estimation of ground and excited state dipole moment of laser dyes C504T and C521T using solvatochromic shifts of absorption and fluorescence spectra.

PubMed

Basavaraja, Jana; Suresh Kumar, H M; Inamdar, S R; Wari, M N

2016-02-05

The absorption and fluorescence spectra of laser dyes: coumarin 504T (C504T) and coumarin 521T (C521T) have been recorded at room temperature in a series of non-polar and polar solvents. The spectra of these dyes showed bathochromic shift with increasing in solvent polarity indicating the involvement of π→π⁎ transition. Kamlet-Taft and Catalan solvent parameters were used to analyze the effect of solvents on C504T and C521T molecules. The study reveals that both general solute-solvent interactions and specific interactions are operative in these two systems. The ground state dipole moment was estimated using Guggenheim's method and also by quantum mechanical calculations. The solvatochromic data were used to determine the excited state dipole moment (μ(e)). It is observed that dipole moment value of excited state (μ(e)) is higher than that of the ground state in both the laser dyes indicating that these dyes are more polar in nature in the excited state than in the ground state. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Minimum Fuel Based Estimator for Maneuver and Natrual Dynamics Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubey, D.; Scheeres, D.

2013-09-01

The vast and growing population of objects in Earth orbit (active and defunct spacecraft, orbital debris, etc.) offers many unique challenges when it comes to tracking these objects and associating the resulting observations. Complicating these challenges are the inaccurate natural dynamical models of these objects, the active maneuvers of spacecraft that deviate them from their ballistic trajectories, and the fact that spacecraft are tracked and operated by separate agencies. Maneuver detection and reconstruction algorithms can help with each of these issues by estimating mismodeled and unmodeled dynamics through indirect observation of spacecraft. It also helps to verify the associations made by an object correlation algorithm or aid in making those associations, which is essential when tracking objects in orbit. The algorithm developed in this study applies an Optimal Control Problem (OCP) Distance Metric approach to the problems of Maneuver Reconstruction and Dynamics Estimation. This was first developed by Holzinger, Scheeres, and Alfriend (2011), with a subsequent study by Singh, Horwood, and Poore (2012). This method estimates the minimum fuel control policy rather than the state as a typical Kalman Filter would. This difference ensures that the states are connected through a given dynamical model and allows for automatic covariance manipulation, which can help to prevent filter saturation. Using a string of measurements (either verified or hypothesized to correlate with one another), the algorithm outputs a corresponding string of adjoint and state estimates with associated noise. Post-processing techniques are implemented, which when applied to the adjoint estimates can remove noise and expose unmodeled maneuvers and mismodeled natural dynamics. Specifically, the estimated controls are used to determine spacecraft dependent accelerations (atmospheric drag and solar radiation pressure) using an adapted form of the Optimal Control based natural dynamics estimation scheme developed by Lubey and Scheeres (2012). In order to allow for direct comparison, the estimator developed here was modeled after a typical Kalman Filter. The estimator forces the terminal state to lie on a manifold that satisfies the least squares with a priori information cost function, thus establishing a link with a typical Kalman filter. Terms are collected into a pseudo-Kalman Gain, which creates an equivalent form in the state estimates and covariances between the two estimators. While the two estimators share common roots, the inclusion of control in the Minimum Fuel Estimator gives it special properties. For instance, the inclusion of adjoint noise can help to automatically prevent filter saturation in a manner similar to a State Noise Compensation Algorithm. This property is quite important when considering dynamics mismodeling as filter saturation will cause estimate divergence for mismodeled systems. Additional properties and alternative forms of the estimator are also explored in this study. Several implementations of this estimator are given in this paper. It is applied to LEO, GEO, and GTO orbits with drag and SRP mismodeling. The inclusion of unmodeled maneuvers is also considered. These numerical simulations verify the mathematical properties of this estimator, and demonstrate the advantages that this estimator has over typical Kalman Filters.

Short Communication: Heightened HIV Antibody Responses in Postpartum Women as Exemplified by Recent Infection Assays: Implications for Incidence Estimates.

PubMed

Hargrove, John W; van Schalkwyk, Cari; Humphrey, Jean H; Mutasa, Kuda; Ntozini, Robert; Owen, Sherry Michele; Masciotra, Silvina; Parekh, Bharat S; Duong, Yen T; Dobbs, Trudy; Kilmarx, Peter H; Gonese, Elizabeth

2017-09-01

Laboratory assays that identify recent HIV infections are important for assessing impacts of interventions aimed at reducing HIV incidence. Kinetics of HIV humoral responses can vary with inherent assay properties, and between HIV subtypes, populations, and physiological states. They are important in determining mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for antibody-based assays for detecting recent HIV infections. We determined MDRIs for multi-subtype peptide representing subtypes B, E and D (BED)-capture enzyme immunoassay, limiting antigen (LAg), and Bio-Rad Avidity Incidence (BRAI) assays for 101 seroconverting postpartum women, recruited in Harare from 1997 to 2000 during the Zimbabwe Vitamin A for Mothers and Babies trial, comparing them against published MDRIs estimated from seroconverting cases in the general population. We also compared MDRIs for women who seroconverted either during the first 9 months, or at later stages, postpartum. At cutoffs (C) of 0.8 for BED, 1.5 for LAg, and 40% for BRAI, estimated MDRIs for postpartum mothers were 192, 104, and 144 days, 33%, 32%, and 52% lower than published estimates of 287, 152 and 298 days, respectively, for clade C samples from general populations. Point estimates of MDRI values were 7%-19% shorter for women who seroconverted in the first 9 months postpartum than for those seroconverting later. MDRI values for three HIV incidence biomarkers are longer in the general population than among postpartum women, particularly those who recently gave birth, consistent with heightened immunological activation soon after birth. Our results provide a caution that MDRI may vary significantly between subjects in different physiological states.

Holographic estimate of the meson cloud contribution to nucleon axial form factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramalho, G.

2018-04-01

We use light-front holography to estimate the valence quark and the meson cloud contributions to the nucleon axial form factor. The free couplings of the holographic model are determined by the empirical data and by the information extracted from lattice QCD. The holographic model provides a good description of the empirical data when we consider a meson cloud mixture of about 30% in the physical nucleon state. The estimate of the valence quark contribution to the nucleon axial form factor compares well with the lattice QCD data for small pion masses. Our estimate of the meson cloud contribution to the nucleon axial form factor has a slower falloff with the square momentum transfer compared to typical estimates from quark models with meson cloud dressing.

Both respiration and photosynthesis determine the scaling of plankton metabolism in the oligotrophic ocean

PubMed Central

Serret, Pablo; Robinson, Carol; Aranguren-Gassis, María; García-Martín, Enma Elena; Gist, Niki; Kitidis, Vassilis; Lozano, José; Stephens, John; Harris, Carolyn; Thomas, Rob

2015-01-01

Despite its importance to ocean–climate interactions, the metabolic state of the oligotrophic ocean has remained controversial for >15 years. Positions in the debate are that it is either hetero- or autotrophic, which suggests either substantial unaccounted for organic matter inputs, or that all available photosynthesis (P) estimations (including 14C) are biased. Here we show the existence of systematic differences in the metabolic state of the North (heterotrophic) and South (autotrophic) Atlantic oligotrophic gyres, resulting from differences in both P and respiration (R). The oligotrophic ocean is neither auto- nor heterotrophic, but functionally diverse. Our results show that the scaling of plankton metabolism by generalized P:R relationships that has sustained the debate is biased, and indicate that the variability of R, and not only of P, needs to be considered in regional estimations of the ocean's metabolic state. PMID:25908109

Agricultural pesticide emissions associated with common crops in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benjey, W.G.

Annual emissions for the year 1987 from the application of agricultural pesticides have been estimated by crop type by county for the United States using a geographic information system. The emissions estimates are based upon computed volatilization rates accounting for the properties of each pesticide, evaporation rates, mode of application (surface or soil incorporation) and percent of interception by leaves. Key pesticide properties include the Henry's Law constant, half-life in soil and the organic carbon partitioning coefficient. The volatilization rates are multiplied by the amount of pesticide applied by crop acreage in each county as determined from agricultural census andmore » pesticide sales data. The geographic distribution of the dominant emissions, such as atrazine and diazinon, etc. are presented by crop type and state. For a given pesticide, the geographic variability is controlled principally by amount applied and water availability as reflected in evaporation rates.« less

Ground-water recharge in humid areas of the United States: A summary of Ground-Water Resources Program studies, 2003-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delin, Geoffrey N.; Risser, Dennis W.

2007-01-01

Increased demands on water resources by a growing population and recent droughts have raised awareness about the adequacy of ground-water resources in humid areas of the United States. The spatial and temporal variability of ground-water recharge are key factors that need to be quantified to determine the sustainability of ground-water resources. Ground-water recharge is defined herein as the entry into the saturated zone of water made available at the water-table surface, together with the associated flow away from the water table within the saturated zone (Freeze and Cherry, 1979). In response to the need for better estimates of ground-water recharge, the Ground-Water Resources Program (GWRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began an initiative in 2003 to estimate ground-water recharge rates in the relatively humid areas of the United States.

Selected Gravity Models in Terms of the fit to the GOCE Kinematic Orbit in the Dynamic Orbit Determination Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobojć, Andrzej; Drożyner, Andrzej; Rzepecka, Zofia

2017-04-01

The work includes the comparison of performance of selected geopotential models in the dynamic orbit estimation of the satellite of the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission. This was realized by fitting estimated orbital arcs to the official centimeter-accuracy GOCE kinematic orbit which is provided by the European Space Agency. The Cartesian coordinates of kinematic orbit were treated as observations in the orbit estimation. The initial satellite state vector components were corrected in an iterative process with respect to the J2000.0 inertial reference frame using the given geopotential model, the models describing the remaining gravitational perturbations and the solar radiation pressure. Taking the obtained solutions into account, the RMS values of orbital residuals were computed. These residuals result from the difference between the determined orbit and the reference one - the GOCE kinematic orbit. The performance of selected gravity models was also determined using various orbital arc lengths. Additionally, the RMS fit values were obtained for some gravity models truncated at given degree and order of spherical harmonic coefficients. The advantage of using the kinematic orbit is its independence from any a priori dynamical models. For the research such GOCE-independent gravity models as HUST-Grace2016s, ITU_GRACE16, ITSG-Grace2014s, ITSG-Grace2014k, GGM05S, Tongji-GRACE01, ULUX_CHAMP2013S, ITG-GRACE2010S, EIGEN-51C, EIGEN5S, EGM2008 and EGM96 were adopted.

An optimal state estimation model of sensory integration in human postural balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Arthur D.

2005-09-01

We propose a model for human postural balance, combining state feedback control with optimal state estimation. State estimation uses an internal model of body and sensor dynamics to process sensor information and determine body orientation. Three sensory modalities are modeled: joint proprioception, vestibular organs in the inner ear, and vision. These are mated with a two degree-of-freedom model of body dynamics in the sagittal plane. Linear quadratic optimal control is used to design state feedback and estimation gains. Nine free parameters define the control objective and the signal-to-noise ratios of the sensors. The model predicts statistical properties of human sway in terms of covariance of ankle and hip motion. These predictions are compared with normal human responses to alterations in sensory conditions. With a single parameter set, the model successfully reproduces the general nature of postural motion as a function of sensory environment. Parameter variations reveal that the model is highly robust under normal sensory conditions, but not when two or more sensors are inaccurate. This behavior is similar to that of normal human subjects. We propose that age-related sensory changes may be modeled with decreased signal-to-noise ratios, and compare the model's behavior with degraded sensors against experimental measurements from older adults. We also examine removal of the model's vestibular sense, which leads to instability similar to that observed in bilateral vestibular loss subjects. The model may be useful for predicting which sensors are most critical for balance, and how much they can deteriorate before posture becomes unstable.

Fracture Characterization in Reactive Fluid-Fractured Rock Systems Using Tracer Transport Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.

2014-12-01

Fractures, whether natural or engineered, exert significant controls over resource exploitation from contemporary energy sources including enhanced geothermal systems and unconventional oil and gas reserves. Consequently, fracture characterization, i.e., estimating the permeability, connectivity, and spacing of the fractures is of critical importance for determining the viability of any energy recovery program. While some progress has recently been made towards estimating these critical fracture parameters, significant uncertainties still remain. A review of tracer technology, which has a long history in fracture characterization, reveals that uncertainties exist in the estimated parameters not only because of paucity of scale-specific data but also because of knowledge gaps in the interpretation methods, particularly in interpretation of tracer data in reactive fluid-rock systems. We have recently demonstrated that the transient tracer evolution signatures in reactive fluid-rock systems are significantly different from those in non-reactive systems (Mukhopadhyay et al., 2013, 2014). For example, the tracer breakthrough curves in reactive fluid-fractured rock systems are expected to exhibit a long pseudo-state condition, during which tracer concentration does not change by any appreciable amount with passage of time. Such a pseudo-steady state condition is not observed in a non-reactive system. In this paper, we show that the presence of this pseudo-steady state condition in tracer breakthrough patterns in reactive fluid-rock systems can have important connotations for fracture characterization. We show that the time of onset of the pseudo-steady state condition and the value of tracer concentration in the pseudo-state condition can be used to reliably estimate fracture spacing and fracture-matrix interface areas.

Neonatal mortality in the empowered action group states of India: trends and determinants.

PubMed

Arokiasamy, Perianayagam; Gautam, Abhishek

2008-03-01

In India, the eight socioeconomically backward states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, referred to as the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states, lag behind in the demographic transition and have the highest infant mortality rates in the country. Neonatal mortality constitutes about 60% of the total infant mortality in India and is highest in the EAG states. This study assesses the levels and trends in neonatal mortality in the EAG states and examines the impact of bio-demographic compared with health care determinants on neonatal mortality. Data from India's Sample Registration System (SRS) and National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-2, 1998-99) are used. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to estimate adjusted neonatal mortality rates by health care, bio-demographic and socioeconomic determinants. Variations in neonatal mortality by these determinants suggest that universal coverage of all pregnant women with full antenatal care, providing assistance at delivery and postnatal care including emergency care are critical inputs for achieving a reduction in neonatal mortality. Health interventions are also required that focus on curtailing the high risk of neonatal deaths arising from the mothers' younger age at childbirth, low birth weight of children and higher order births with short birth intervals.

Total photoelectron yield spectroscopy of energy distribution of electronic states density at GaN surface and SiO2/GaN interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohta, Akio; Truyen, Nguyen Xuan; Fujimura, Nobuyuki; Ikeda, Mitsuhisa; Makihara, Katsunori; Miyazaki, Seiichi

2018-06-01

The energy distribution of the electronic state density of wet-cleaned epitaxial GaN surfaces and SiO2/GaN structures has been studied by total photoelectron yield spectroscopy (PYS). By X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis, the energy band diagram for a wet-cleaned epitaxial GaN surface such as the energy level of the valence band top and electron affinity has been determined to obtain a better understanding of the measured PYS signals. The electronic state density of GaN surface with different carrier concentrations in the energy region corresponding to the GaN bandgap has been evaluated. Also, the interface defect state density of SiO2/GaN structures was also estimated by not only PYS analysis but also capacitance–voltage (C–V) characteristics. We have demonstrated that PYS analysis enables the evaluation of defect state density filled with electrons at the SiO2/GaN interface in the energy region corresponding to the GaN midgap, which is difficult to estimate by C–V measurement of MOS capacitors.

Real-time assessment of mental workload using psychophysiological measures and artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Wilson, Glenn F; Russell, Christopher A

The functional state of the human operator is critical to optimal system performance. Degraded states of operator functioning can lead to errors and overall suboptimal system performance. Accurate assessment of operator functional state is crucial to the successful implementation of an adaptive aiding system. One method of determining operators' functional state is by monitoring their physiology. In the present study, artificial neural networks using physiological signals were used to continuously monitor, in real time, the functional state of 7 participants while they performed the Multi-Attribute Task Battery with two levels of task difficulty. Six channels of brain electrical activity and eye, heart and respiration measures were evaluated on line. The accuracy of the classifier was determined to test its utility as an on-line measure of operator state. The mean classification accuracies were 85%, 82%, and 86% for the baseline, low task difficulty, and high task difficulty conditions, respectively. The high levels of accuracy suggest that these procedures can be used to provide accurate estimates of operator functional state that can be used to provide adaptive aiding. The relative contribution of each of the 43 psychophysiological features was also determined. Actual or potential applications of this research include test and evaluation and adaptive aiding implementation.

Simultaneous orbit determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, J. R.

1988-01-01

Simultaneous orbit determination is demonstrated using live range and Doppler data for the NASA/Goddard tracking configuration defined by the White Sands Ground Terminal (WSGT), the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS), and the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS). A physically connected sequential filter-smoother was developed for this demonstration. Rigorous necessary conditions are used to show that the state error covariance functions are realistic; and this enables the assessment of orbit estimation accuracies for both TDRS and ERBS.

State space truncation with quantified errors for accurate solutions to discrete Chemical Master Equation

PubMed Central

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-01-01

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEG), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. We further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of 1) the birth and death model, 2) the single gene expression model, 3) the genetic toggle switch model, and 4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate out theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks. PMID:27105653

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE PAGES

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-04-22

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

Longitudinal Mercury Monitoring Within the Japanese and Korean Communities (United States): Implications for Exposure Determination and Public Health Protection

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Estimates of exposure to toxicants are predominantly obtained from single timepoint data. Fishconsumption guidance based on these data may be incomplete as recommendations are unlikely to consider impact from factors such as intraindividual variability, seasonal dif...

Determining the Spatial and Seasonal Variability in OM/OC Ratios across the U.S. Using Multiple Regression

EPA Science Inventory

Data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network are used to estimate organic mass to organic carbon (OM/OC) ratios across the United States by extending previously published multiple regression techniques. Our new methodology addresses com...

Standard Operating Procedure for the Turbidimetric Determination of Lead in Paint Extracts

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure to lead (Pb) may adversely impact children's brains, nervous systems and many organs. An estimated 310,000 US children ages 1 to 5 have elevated blood leads. In the United States, the major exposure pathway for children to Pb is from deteriorated Pb-based paint (LBP), ...

14 CFR 151.61 - Grant payments: Partial.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... payments: Partial. (a) Subject to the final determination of allowable project costs as provided in § 151.63 partial grant payments for project costs may be made to a sponsor upon application. Unless... partial payments to the estimated United States share of the project costs of the airport development...

14 CFR 151.61 - Grant payments: Partial.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... payments: Partial. (a) Subject to the final determination of allowable project costs as provided in § 151.63 partial grant payments for project costs may be made to a sponsor upon application. Unless... partial payments to the estimated United States share of the project costs of the airport development...

14 CFR 151.61 - Grant payments: Partial.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... payments: Partial. (a) Subject to the final determination of allowable project costs as provided in § 151.63 partial grant payments for project costs may be made to a sponsor upon application. Unless... partial payments to the estimated United States share of the project costs of the airport development...

Prevalence and Correlates of Autism in a State Psychiatric Hospital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandell, David S.; Lawer, Lindsay J.; Branch, Kira; Brodkin, Edward S.; Healey, Kristin; Witalec, Robert; Johnson, Donielle N.; Gur, Raquel E.

2012-01-01

This study estimated the ASD prevalence in a psychiatric hospital and evaluated the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) combined with other information for differential diagnosis. Chart review, SRS and clinical interviews were collected for 141 patients at one hospital. Diagnosis was determined at case conference. Receiver operating characteristic…

Comparative Staffing Units as a Measure of University Instructional Workload. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins.

A project was undertaken to devise an improved method for determining the workload generated by each direct instructional, instructional-related, and professional-related activity carried out at Colorado State University and the estimated workload expected of each instructional faculty member. These load factors specifically recognize the input…

7 CFR 632.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Federal law or on the part of the State as a result of a bond forfeiture. See § 632.13. Average costs. The calculated cost, determined by recent actual costs and current cost estimates, considered necessary for a... programs of soil and water conservation with which the Secretary of Agriculture cooperates under the Soil...

7 CFR 632.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Federal law or on the part of the State as a result of a bond forfeiture. See § 632.13. Average costs. The calculated cost, determined by recent actual costs and current cost estimates, considered necessary for a... programs of soil and water conservation with which the Secretary of Agriculture cooperates under the Soil...

7 CFR 632.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Federal law or on the part of the State as a result of a bond forfeiture. See § 632.13. Average costs. The calculated cost, determined by recent actual costs and current cost estimates, considered necessary for a... programs of soil and water conservation with which the Secretary of Agriculture cooperates under the Soil...

On three dimensional object recognition and pose-determination: An abstraction based approach. Ph.D. Thesis - Michigan Univ. Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quek, Kok How Francis

1990-01-01

A method of computing reliable Gaussian and mean curvature sign-map descriptors from the polynomial approximation of surfaces was demonstrated. Such descriptors which are invariant under perspective variation are suitable for hypothesis generation. A means for determining the pose of constructed geometric forms whose algebraic surface descriptors are nonlinear in terms of their orienting parameters was developed. This was done by means of linear functions which are capable of approximating nonlinear forms and determining their parameters. It was shown that biquadratic surfaces are suitable companion linear forms for cylindrical approximation and parameter estimation. The estimates provided the initial parametric approximations necessary for a nonlinear regression stage to fine tune the estimates by fitting the actual nonlinear form to the data. A hypothesis-based split-merge algorithm for extraction and pose determination of cylinders and planes which merge smoothly into other surfaces was developed. It was shown that all split-merge algorithms are hypothesis-based. A finite-state algorithm for the extraction of the boundaries of run-length regions was developed. The computation takes advantage of the run list topology and boundary direction constraints implicit in the run-length encoding.

Estimate of the Coulomb correlation energy in CeAg2Ge2 from inverse photoemission and high resolution photoemission spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banik, Soma; Arya, A.; Bendounan, Azzedine; Maniraj, M.; Thamizhavel, A.; Vobornik, I.; Dhar, S. K.; Deb, S. K.

2014-08-01

The occupied and the unoccupied electronic structure of CeAg2Ge2 single crystal has been studied using high resolution photoemission and inverse photoemission spectroscopy, respectively. High resolution photoemission reveals the clear signature of Ce 4f states in the occupied electronic structure which was not observed clearly in our earlier studies. The Coulomb correlation energy in this system has been determined experimentally from the position of the 4f states above and below the Fermi level. Theoretically, the correlation energy has been determined by using the first principles density functional calculations within the generalized gradient approximations taking into account the strong intra-atomic (on-site) interaction Hubbard Ueff term. The calculated valence band shows minor changes in the spectral shape with increasing Ueff due to the fact that the density of Ce 4f state is narrow in the occupied part and is hybridized with the Ce 5d, Ag 4d and Ge 4p states. On the other hand, substantial changes are observed in the spectral shape of the calculated conduction band with increasing Ueff since the density of Ce 4f state is very large in the unoccupied part, compared to other states. The estimated value of correlation energy for CeAg2Ge2 from the experiment and the theory is ≈ 4.2 eV. The resonant photoemission data are analyzed in the framework of the single-impurity Anderson model which further confirms the presence of the Coulomb correlation energy and small hybridization in this system.

A simplified economic filter for open-pit mining and heap-leach recovery of copper in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Keith R.; Singer, Donald A.

2001-01-01

Determining the economic viability of mineral deposits of various sizes and grades is a critical task in all phases of mineral supply, from land-use management to mine development. This study evaluates two simple tools for estimating the economic viability of porphyry copper deposits mined by open-pit, heap-leach methods when only limited information on these deposits is available. These two methods are useful for evaluating deposits that either (1) are undiscovered deposits predicted by a mineral resource assessment, or (2) have been discovered but for which little data has been collected or released. The first tool uses ordinary least-squared regression analysis of cost and operating data from selected deposits to estimate a predictive relationship between mining rate, itself estimated from deposit size, and capital and operating costs. The second method uses cost models developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines (Camm, 1991) updated using appropriate cost indices. We find that the cost model method works best for estimating capital costs and the empirical model works best for estimating operating costs for mines to be developed in the United States.

Pre- and postprocessing techniques for determining goodness of computational meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oden, J. Tinsley; Westermann, T.; Bass, J. M.

1993-01-01

Research in error estimation, mesh conditioning, and solution enhancement for finite element, finite difference, and finite volume methods has been incorporated into AUDITOR, a modern, user-friendly code, which operates on 2D and 3D unstructured neutral files to improve the accuracy and reliability of computational results. Residual error estimation capabilities provide local and global estimates of solution error in the energy norm. Higher order results for derived quantities may be extracted from initial solutions. Within the X-MOTIF graphical user interface, extensive visualization capabilities support critical evaluation of results in linear elasticity, steady state heat transfer, and both compressible and incompressible fluid dynamics.

Determination of the existence of economic rents accruing in the United States coal industry and implications of increased coal severance taxation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noser, T.C.

1986-01-01

To raise necessary revenues, many energy rich states have turned to greater utilization of severance taxation. Increases in oil and gas prices and the decline of nuclear power led to an increase in the competitiveness of coal, and perhaps to the generation of economic rents within the coal industry which state legislatures would hope to reappropriate via severance taxation. The purpose of this research is to determine if economic rents have been generated within the coal industry, and to analyze the implications of increased severance taxation. A mine simulation model was used to estimate the price per ton of coalmore » a typical firm would have to charge in order to cover all operating costs and earn a normal rate or return. Such estimates were made for eleven major coal producing states and compared to actual price data for the years 1978 through 1981. For each year, actual selling prices exceeded the minimum acceptable selling price necessary for firms to earn a normal rate of return, i.e., economic rents were generated in each year, totalling nearly $2.5 billion in 1981. Regarding the implications of increased severance taxation, it was argued that will the exception of a pure profits tax, any tax imposed on a profit-maximizing firm would discourage production and investment.« less

[Cost at the first level of care].

PubMed

Villarreal-Ríos, E; Montalvo-Almaguer, G; Salinas-Martínez, M; Guzmán-Padilla, J E; Tovar-Castillo, N H; Garza-Elizondo, M E

1996-01-01

To estimate the unit cost of 15 causes of demand for primary care per health clinic in an institutional (social security) health care system, and to determine the average cost at the state level. The cost of 80% of clinic visits was estimated in 35 of 40 clinics in the social security health care system in the state of Nuevo Leon, Mexico. The methodology for fixed costs consisted of: departmentalization, inputs, cost, weights and construction of matrices. Variable costs were estimated for standard patients by type of health care sought and with the consensus of experts; the sum of fixed and variable costs gave the unit cost. A computerized model was employed for data processing. A large variation in unit cost was observed between health clinics studied for all causes of demand, in both metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. Prenatal care ($92.26) and diarrhea ($93.76) were the least expensive while diabetes ($240.42) and hypertension ($312.54) were the most expensive. Non-metropolitan costs were higher than metropolitan costs (p < 0.05); controlling for number of physician's offices showed that this was determined by medical units with only one physician's office. Knowledge of unit costs is a tool that, when used by medical administrators, allows adequate health care planning and efficient allocation of health resources.

Representation of Probability Density Functions from Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mashiku, Alinda K.; Garrison, James; Carpenter, J. Russell

2012-01-01

Statistical orbit determination enables us to obtain estimates of the state and the statistical information of its region of uncertainty. In order to obtain an accurate representation of the probability density function (PDF) that incorporates higher order statistical information, we propose the use of nonlinear estimation methods such as the Particle Filter. The Particle Filter (PF) is capable of providing a PDF representation of the state estimates whose accuracy is dependent on the number of particles or samples used. For this method to be applicable to real case scenarios, we need a way of accurately representing the PDF in a compressed manner with little information loss. Hence we propose using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as a non-Gaussian dimensional reduction method that is capable of maintaining higher order statistical information obtained using the PF. Methods such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are based on utilizing up to second order statistics, hence will not suffice in maintaining maximum information content. Both the PCA and the ICA are applied to two scenarios that involve a highly eccentric orbit with a lower apriori uncertainty covariance and a less eccentric orbit with a higher a priori uncertainty covariance, to illustrate the capability of the ICA in relation to the PCA.

Use of Combined Biogeochemical Model Approaches and Empirical Data to Assess Critical Loads of Nitrogen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fenn, Mark E.; Driscoll, Charles; Zhou, Qingtao

2015-01-01

Empirical and dynamic biogeochemical modelling are complementary approaches for determining the critical load (CL) of atmospheric nitrogen (N) or other constituent deposition that an ecosystem can tolerate without causing ecological harm. The greatest benefits are obtained when these approaches are used in combination. Confounding environmental factors can complicate the determination of empirical CLs across depositional gradients, while the experimental application of N amendments for estimating the CL does not realistically mimic the effects of chronic atmospheric N deposition. Biogeochemical and vegetation simulation models can provide CL estimates and valuable ecosystem response information, allowing for past and future scenario testing withmore » various combinations of environmental factors, pollutants, pollutant control options, land management, and ecosystem response parameters. Even so, models are fundamentally gross simplifications of the real ecosystems they attempt to simulate. Empirical approaches are vital as a check on simulations and CL estimates, to parameterize models, and to elucidate mechanisms and responses under real world conditions. In this chapter, we provide examples of empirical and modelled N CL approaches in ecosystems from three regions of the United States: mixed conifer forest, desert scrub and pinyon- juniper woodland in California; alpine catchments in the Rocky Mountains; and lakes in the Adirondack region of New York state.« less

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

Using Landsat to provide potato production estimates to Columbia Basin farmers and processors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

A summary of project activities relative to the estimation of potato yields in the Columbia Basin is given. Oregon State University is using a two-pronged approach to yield estimation, one using simulation models and the other using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach has used satellite observations to determine key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Two empirical modeling approaches are illustrated. One relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation; the other relates tuber yield to the integral under the GVI curve.

Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

2015-12-01

State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially interpolating 100-year dew point values rather than a more gauge-based approach. Site specific reviews demonstrated that both issues had potential for lowering the PMP estimate significantly by affecting the in-place and transposed moisture maximization value and, in turn, the final controlling storm for a given basin size and PMP estimate.

Hydrogeology and ground-water resources of Ngatik Island, Sapwuahfik Atoll, State of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, S.S.

1996-01-01

The lens of fresh ground water on Ngatik Island contains about 509 million gallons of potable water. Recharge to the freshwater lens is estimated to be 990,000 gallons per day on the basis of an estimated mean annual rainfall of 160 inches. The long-term average sustainable yield is estimated to be about 280,000 gallons per day. The estimated demand for water is about 30,000 gallons per day. Shallow-vertical-tube-wells or horizontal-infiltration wells could be used to develop the freshwater lens. The effect of development on the lens can be determined by monitoring the chloride concentration of water from a network of shallow-water-table wells and deep driven wells. The ground-water resource on Ngatik can be used in conjunction with individual rainwater-catchment systems: rainwater can be used for drinking and cooking and ground water can be used for sanitary purposes. When rainwater- catchment systems fail during extended dry periods, ground water would be available to meet the total demand.

A coupled channel study of HN2 unimolecular decay based on a global ab initio potential surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koizumi, Hiroyasu; Schatz, George C.; Walch, Stephen P.

1991-01-01

The unimolecular decay lifetimes of several vibrational states of HN2 are determined on the basis of an accurate coupled channel dynamics study using a global analytical potential surface. The surface reproduces the ab initio points with an rms error of 0.08 kcal/mol for energies below 20 kcal/mol. Modifications to the potential that describe the effect of improving the basis set in the ab initio calculations are provided. Converged coupled channel calculations are performed for the ground rotational state of HN2 to determine the lifetimes of the lowest ten vibrational states. Only the ground vibrational state (000) and first excited bend (001) are found to have lifetimes longer than 1 ps. The lifetimes of these states are estimated at 3 x 10 to the -9th and 2 x 10 to the -10th s, respectively. Variation of these results with quality of the ab initio calculations is not more than a factor of 5.

Total Lifetime and Cancer-related Costs for Elderly Patients Diagnosed With Anal Cancer in the United States.

PubMed

Deshmukh, Ashish A; Zhao, Hui; Franzini, Luisa; Lairson, David R; Chiao, Elizabeth Y; Das, Prajnan; Swartz, Michael D; Giordano, Sharon H; Cantor, Scott B

2018-02-01

To determine the lifetime and phase-specific cost of anal cancer management and the economic burden of anal cancer care in elderly (66 y and older) patients in the United States. For this study, we used Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare linked database (1992 to 2009). We matched newly diagnosed anal cancer patients (by age and sex) to noncancer controls. We estimated survival time from the date of diagnosis until death. Lifetime and average annual cost by stage and age at diagnosis were estimated by combining survival data with Medicare claims. The average lifetime cost, proportion of patients who were elderly, and the number of incident cases were used to estimate the economic burden. The average lifetime cost for patients with anal cancer was US$50,150 (N=2227) (2014 US dollars). The average annual cost in men and women was US$8025 and US$5124, respectively. The overall survival after the diagnosis of cancer was 8.42 years. As the age and stage at diagnosis increased, so did the cost of cancer-related care. The anal cancer-related lifetime economic burden in Medicare patients in the United States was US$112 million. Although the prevalence of anal cancer among the elderly in the United States is small, its economic burden is considerable.

Dodging the dark matter degeneracy while determining the dynamics of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busti, Vinicius C.; Clarkson, Chris

2016-05-01

One of the key issues in cosmology is to establish the nature of dark energy, and to determine whether the equation of state evolves with time. When estimating this from distance measurements there is a degeneracy with the matter density. We show that there exists a simple function of the dark energy equation of state and its first derivative which is independent of this degeneracy at all redshifts, and so is a much more robust determinant of the evolution of dark energy than just its derivative. We show that this function can be well determined at low redshift from supernovae using Gaussian Processes, and that this method is far superior to a variety of parameterisations which are also subject to priors on the matter density. This shows that parametrised models give very biased constraints on the evolution of dark energy.

75 FR 26716 - Seamless Refined Copper Pipe and Tube from the People's Republic of China: Preliminary...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-12

...The Department of Commerce (the ``Department'') has preliminarily determined that seamless refined copper pipe and tube (``copper pipe and tube'') from the People's Republic of China (``PRC'') is being, or is likely to be, sold in the United States at less than fair value (``LTFV''), as provided in section 733 of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended (the ``Act''). The estimated dumping margins are shown in the ``Preliminary Determination'' section of this notice. Interested parties are invited to comment on the preliminary determination.

Influence of exposure differences on city-to-city heterogeneity ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Multi-city population-based epidemiological studies have observed heterogeneity between city-specific fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-mortality effect estimates. These studies typically use ambient monitoring data as a surrogate for exposure leading to potential exposure misclassification. The level of exposure misclassification can differ by city affecting the observed health effect estimate. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate whether previously developed residential infiltration-based city clusters can explain city-to-city heterogeneity in PM2.5 mortality risk estimates. In a prior paper 94 cities were clustered based on residential infiltration factors (e.g. home age/size, prevalence of air conditioning (AC)), resulting in 5 clusters. For this analysis, the association between PM2.5 and all-cause mortality was first determined in 77 cities across the United States for 2001–2005. Next, a second stage analysis was conducted evaluating the influence of cluster assignment on heterogeneity in the risk estimates. Associations between a 2-day (lag 0–1 days) moving average of PM2.5 concentrations and non-accidental mortality were determined for each city. Estimated effects ranged from −3.2 to 5.1% with a pooled estimate of 0.33% (95% CI: 0.13, 0.53) increase in mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5. The second stage analysis determined that cluster assignment was marginally significant in explaining the city-to-city heterogeneity. The health effe

Evaluating the effectiveness of state specific lead-based paint hazard risk reduction laws in preventing recurring incidences of lead poisoning in children.

PubMed

Kennedy, Chinaro; Lordo, Robert; Sucosky, Marissa Scalia; Boehm, Rona; Brown, Mary Jean

2016-01-01

Despite significant progress made in recent decades in preventing childhood lead poisoning in the United States through the control or elimination of lead sources in the environment, it continues to be an issue in many communities, primarily in low-income communities with a large percentage of deteriorating housing built before the elimination of lead in residential paint. The purpose of this study is to determine whether state laws aimed at preventing childhood lead poisoning are also effective in preventing recurring lead poisoning among children previously poisoned. An evaluation was conducted to determine whether laws in two representative states, Massachusetts and Ohio, have been effective in preventing recurrent lead poisoning among children less than 72 months of age previously poisoned, compared to a representative state (Mississippi) which at the time of the study had yet to develop legislation to prevent childhood lead poisoning. Compared to no legislation, unadjusted estimates showed children less than 72 months old, living in Massachusetts, previously identified as being lead poisoned, were 73% less likely to develop recurrent lead poisoning. However, this statistically significant association did not remain after controlling for other confounding variables. We did not find such a significant association when analyzing data from Ohio. While findings from unadjusted estimates indicated that state lead laws such as those in Massachusetts may be effective at preventing recurrent lead poisoning among young children, small numbers may have attenuated the power to obtain statistical significance during multivariate analysis. Our findings did not provide evidence that state lead laws, such as those in Ohio, were effective in preventing recurrent lead poisoning among young children. Further studies may be needed to confirm these findings. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Evaluating the effectiveness of state specific lead-based paint hazard risk reduction laws in preventing recurring incidences of lead poisoning in children☆

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Chinaro; Lordo, Robert; Sucosky, Marissa Scalia; Boehm, Rona; Brown, Mary Jean

2016-01-01

Background Despite significant progress made in recent decades in preventing childhood lead poisoning in the United States through the control or elimination of lead sources in the environment, it continues to be an issue in many communities, primarily in low-income communities with a large percentage of deteriorating housing built before the elimination of lead in residential paint. The purpose of this study is to determine whether state laws aimed at preventing childhood lead poisoning are also effective in preventing recurring lead poisoning among children previously poisoned. Methods An evaluation was conducted to determine whether laws in two representative states, Massachusetts and Ohio, have been effective in preventing recurrent lead poisoning among children less than 72 months of age previously poisoned, compared to a representative state (Mississippi) which at the time of the study had yet to develop legislation to prevent childhood lead poisoning. Results Compared to no legislation, unadjusted estimates showed children less than 72 months old, living in Massachusetts, previously identified as being lead poisoned, were 73% less likely to develop recurrent lead poisoning. However, this statistically significant association did not remain after controlling for other confounding variables. We did not find such a significant association when analyzing data from Ohio. Conclusions While findings from unadjusted estimates indicated that state lead laws such as those in Massachusetts may be effective at preventing recurrent lead poisoning among young children, small numbers may have attenuated the power to obtain statistical significance during multivariate analysis. Our findings did not provide evidence that state lead laws, such as those in Ohio, were effective in preventing recurrent lead poisoning among young children. Further studies may be needed to confirm these findings. PMID:26472219

Metabolic control analysis using transient metabolite concentrations. Determination of metabolite concentration control coefficients.

PubMed Central

Delgado, J; Liao, J C

1992-01-01

The methodology previously developed for determining the Flux Control Coefficients [Delgado & Liao (1992) Biochem. J. 282, 919-927] is extended to the calculation of metabolite Concentration Control Coefficients. It is shown that the transient metabolite concentrations are related by a few algebraic equations, attributed to mass balance, stoichiometric constraints, quasi-equilibrium or quasi-steady states, and kinetic regulations. The coefficients in these relations can be estimated using linear regression, and can be used to calculate the Control Coefficients. The theoretical basis and two examples are discussed. Although the methodology is derived based on the linear approximation of enzyme kinetics, it yields reasonably good estimates of the Control Coefficients for systems with non-linear kinetics. PMID:1497632

SEE Sensitivity Analysis of 180 nm NAND CMOS Logic Cell for Space Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajid, Muhammad

2016-07-01

This paper focus on Single Event Effects caused by energetic particle strike on sensitive locations in CMOS NAND logic cell designed in 180nm technology node to be operated in space radiation environment. The generation of SE transients as well as upsets as function of LET of incident particle has been determined for logic devices onboard LEO and GEO satellites. The minimum magnitude pulse and pulse-width for threshold LET was determined to estimate the vulnerability /susceptibility of device for heavy ion strike. The impact of temperature, strike location and logic state of NAND circuit on total SEU/SET rate was estimated with physical mechanism simulations using Visual TCAD, Genius, runSEU program and Crad computer codes.

Towards a detailed anthropometric body characterization using the Microsoft Kinect.

PubMed

Domingues, Ana; Barbosa, Filipa; Pereira, Eduardo M; Santos, Márcio Borgonovo; Seixas, Adérito; Vilas-Boas, João; Gabriel, Joaquim; Vardasca, Ricardo

2016-01-01

Anthropometry has been widely used in different fields, providing relevant information for medicine, ergonomics and biometric applications. However, the existent solutions present marked disadvantages, reducing the employment of this type of evaluation. Studies have been conducted in order to easily determine anthropometric measures considering data provided by low-cost sensors, such as the Microsoft Kinect. In this work, a methodology is proposed and implemented for estimating anthropometric measures considering the information acquired with this sensor. The measures obtained with this method were compared with the ones from a validation system, Qualisys. Comparing the relative errors determined with state-of-art references, for some of the estimated measures, lower errors were verified and a more complete characterization of the whole body structure was achieved.

Coarse initial orbit determination for a geostationary satellite using single-epoch GPS measurements.

PubMed

Kim, Ghangho; Kim, Chongwon; Kee, Changdon

2015-04-01

A practical algorithm is proposed for determining the orbit of a geostationary orbit (GEO) satellite using single-epoch measurements from a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver under the sparse visibility of the GPS satellites. The algorithm uses three components of a state vector to determine the satellite's state, even when it is impossible to apply the classical single-point solutions (SPS). Through consideration of the characteristics of the GEO orbital elements and GPS measurements, the components of the state vector are reduced to three. However, the algorithm remains sufficiently accurate for a GEO satellite. The developed algorithm was tested on simulated measurements from two or three GPS satellites, and the calculated maximum position error was found to be less than approximately 40 km or even several kilometers within the geometric range, even when the classical SPS solution was unattainable. In addition, extended Kalman filter (EKF) tests of a GEO satellite with the estimated initial state were performed to validate the algorithm. In the EKF, a reliable dynamic model was adapted to reduce the probability of divergence that can be caused by large errors in the initial state.

Coarse Initial Orbit Determination for a Geostationary Satellite Using Single-Epoch GPS Measurements

PubMed Central

Kim, Ghangho; Kim, Chongwon; Kee, Changdon

2015-01-01

A practical algorithm is proposed for determining the orbit of a geostationary orbit (GEO) satellite using single-epoch measurements from a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver under the sparse visibility of the GPS satellites. The algorithm uses three components of a state vector to determine the satellite’s state, even when it is impossible to apply the classical single-point solutions (SPS). Through consideration of the characteristics of the GEO orbital elements and GPS measurements, the components of the state vector are reduced to three. However, the algorithm remains sufficiently accurate for a GEO satellite. The developed algorithm was tested on simulated measurements from two or three GPS satellites, and the calculated maximum position error was found to be less than approximately 40 km or even several kilometers within the geometric range, even when the classical SPS solution was unattainable. In addition, extended Kalman filter (EKF) tests of a GEO satellite with the estimated initial state were performed to validate the algorithm. In the EKF, a reliable dynamic model was adapted to reduce the probability of divergence that can be caused by large errors in the initial state. PMID:25835299

Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.

PubMed

Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod

2017-07-15

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal flexibility among the three networks. Our proposed methods provide a novel and powerful generative model for investigating dynamic brain connectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity filtering estimation for attitude changing spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hongliang; Xu, Shijie

2014-09-01

This paper presents an improved real-time sequential filter (IRTSF) for magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity estimation of spacecraft during its attitude changing (including fast and large angular attitude maneuver, rapidly spinning or uncontrolled tumble). In this new magnetometer-only attitude determination technique, both attitude dynamics equation and first time derivative of measured magnetic field vector are directly leaded into filtering equations based on the traditional single vector attitude determination method of gyroless and real-time sequential filter (RTSF) of magnetometer-only attitude estimation. The process noise model of IRTSF includes attitude kinematics and dynamics equations, and its measurement model consists of magnetic field vector and its first time derivative. The observability of IRTSF for small or large angular velocity changing spacecraft is evaluated by an improved Lie-Differentiation, and the degrees of observability of IRTSF for different initial estimation errors are analyzed by the condition number and a solved covariance matrix. Numerical simulation results indicate that: (1) the attitude and angular velocity of spacecraft can be estimated with sufficient accuracy using IRTSF from magnetometer-only data; (2) compared with that of RTSF, the estimation accuracies and observability degrees of attitude and angular velocity using IRTSF from magnetometer-only data are both improved; and (3) universality: the IRTSF of magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity estimation is observable for any different initial state estimation error vector.

Association of seat belt use with death: a comparison of estimates based on data from police and estimates based on data from trained crash investigators

PubMed Central

Cummings, P

2002-01-01

Objective: Estimates of any protective effect of seat belts could be exaggerated if some crash survivors falsely claimed to police that they were belted in order to avoid a fine. The aim of this study was to determine whether estimates of seat belt effectiveness differed when based on belt use as recorded by the police and belt use determined by trained crash investigators. Design: Matched cohort study. Setting: United States. Subjects: Adult driver-passenger pairs in the same vehicle with at least one death (n=1689) sampled from crashes during 1988–2000; data from the National Accident Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System. Main outcome measure: Risk ratio for death among belted occupants compared with those not belted. Results: Trained investigators determined post-crash seat belt use by vehicle inspections for 92% of the occupants, confidential interviews with survivors for 5%, and medical or autopsy reports for 3%. Using this information, the adjusted risk ratio for belted persons was 0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.46). The risk ratio was also 0.36 using police reported belt use for the same crashes. Conclusions: Estimates of seat belt effects based upon police data were not substantially different from estimates which used data obtained by trained crash investigators who were not police officers. These results were from vehicles in which at least one front seat occupant died; these findings may not apply to estimates which use data from crashes without a death. PMID:12460976

Methods for the accurate estimation of confidence intervals on protein folding ϕ-values

PubMed Central

Ruczinski, Ingo; Sosnick, Tobin R.; Plaxco, Kevin W.

2006-01-01

ϕ-Values provide an important benchmark for the comparison of experimental protein folding studies to computer simulations and theories of the folding process. Despite the growing importance of ϕ measurements, however, formulas to quantify the precision with which ϕ is measured have seen little significant discussion. Moreover, a commonly employed method for the determination of standard errors on ϕ estimates assumes that estimates of the changes in free energy of the transition and folded states are independent. Here we demonstrate that this assumption is usually incorrect and that this typically leads to the underestimation of ϕ precision. We derive an analytical expression for the precision of ϕ estimates (assuming linear chevron behavior) that explicitly takes this dependence into account. We also describe an alternative method that implicitly corrects for the effect. By simulating experimental chevron data, we show that both methods accurately estimate ϕ confidence intervals. We also explore the effects of the commonly employed techniques of calculating ϕ from kinetics estimated at non-zero denaturant concentrations and via the assumption of parallel chevron arms. We find that these approaches can produce significantly different estimates for ϕ (again, even for truly linear chevron behavior), indicating that they are not equivalent, interchangeable measures of transition state structure. Lastly, we describe a Web-based implementation of the above algorithms for general use by the protein folding community. PMID:17008714

Application of an Optimal Tuner Selection Approach for On-Board Self-Tuning Engine Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Armstrong, Jeffrey B.; Garg, Sanjay

2012-01-01

An enhanced design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented in this paper. It specific-ally addresses the under-determined estimation problem, in which there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. This work builds upon an existing technique for systematically selecting a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. While the existing technique was optimized for open-loop engine operation at a fixed design point, in this paper an alternative formulation is presented that enables the technique to be optimized for an engine operating under closed-loop control throughout the flight envelope. The theoretical Kalman filter mean squared estimation error at a steady-state closed-loop operating point is derived, and the tuner selection approach applied to minimize this error is discussed. A technique for constructing a globally optimal tuning parameter vector, which enables full-envelope application of the technology, is also presented, along with design steps for adjusting the dynamic response of the Kalman filter state estimates. Results from the application of the technique to linear and nonlinear aircraft engine simulations are presented and compared to the conventional approach of tuner selection. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line Kalman filter estimation accuracy.

Oxygen Fugacity of Mare Basalts and the Lunar Mantle Application of a New Microscale Oxybarometer Based on the Valence State of Vanadium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shearer, C. K.; Karner, J.; Papike, J. J.; Sutton, S. R.

2004-01-01

The ability to estimate oxygen fugacities for mare basalts and to extend these observations to the lunar mantle is limited using bulk analysis techniques based on buffering assemblages or the valence state of iron. These limitations are due to reequilibration of mineral assemblages at subsolidus conditions, deviations of mineral compositions from thermodynamic ideality, size requirements, and the limits of the iron valence at very low fO2. Still, these approaches have been helpful and indicate that mare basalts crystallized at fO2 between the iron-w stite buffer (IW) and the ilmenite breakdown reaction (ilmenite = rutile + iron). It has also been inferred from these estimates that the lunar mantle is also highly reduced lying at conditions below IW. Generally, these data cannot be used to determine if the mare basalts become increasingly reduced during transport from their mantle source and eruption at the lunar surface and if there are differences in fO2 among mare basalts or mantle sources. One promising approach to determining the fO2 of mare basalts is using the mean valence of vanadium (2+, 3+, 4+, 5+) determined on spots of a few micrometers in diameter using synchrotron x-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy. The average valence state of V in basaltic glasses is a function of fO2, temperature, V coordination, and melt composition. Here, we report the initial results of this approach applied to lunar pyroclastic glasses.

Storage requirements for Georgia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, Robert F.

1983-01-01

The suitability of a stream as a source of water supply or for waste disposal may be severely limited by low flow during certain periods. A water user may be forced to provide storage facilities to supplement the natural flow if the low flow is insufficient for his needs. This report provides data for evaluating the feasibility of augmenting low streamflow by means of storage facilities. It contains tabular data on storage requirements for draft rates that are as much as 60 percent of the mean annual flow at 99 continuous-record gaging stations, and draft-storage diagrams for estimating storage requirements at many additional sites. Through analyses of streamflow data, the State was divided into four regions. Draft-storage diagrams for each region provide a means of estimating storage requirements for sites on streams where data are scant, provided the drainage area, mean annual flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow are known or can be estimated. These data are tabulated for the 99 gaging stations used in the analyses and for 102 partial-record sites where only base-flow measurements have been made. The draft-storage diagrams are useful not only for estimating in-channel storage required for low-flow augmentation, but also can be used for estimating the volume of off-channel storage required to retain wastewater during low-flow periods for later release. In addition, these relationships can be helpful in estimating the volume of wastewater to be disposed of by spraying on land, provided that the water disposed of in this manner is only that for which streamflow dilution water is not currently available. Mean annual flow can be determined for any stream within the State by using the runoff map in this report. Low-flow indices can be estimated by several methods, including correlation of base-flow measurements with concurrent flow at nearby continuous-record gaging stations where low-flow indices have been determined.

Estimating Power System Dynamic States Using Extended Kalman Filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Zhenyu; Schneider, Kevin P.; Nieplocha, Jaroslaw

2014-10-31

Abstract—The state estimation tools which are currently deployed in power system control rooms are based on a steady state assumption. As a result, the suite of operational tools that rely on state estimation results as inputs do not have dynamic information available and their accuracy is compromised. This paper investigates the application of Extended Kalman Filtering techniques for estimating dynamic states in the state estimation process. The new formulated “dynamic state estimation” includes true system dynamics reflected in differential equations, not like previously proposed “dynamic state estimation” which only considers the time-variant snapshots based on steady state modeling. This newmore » dynamic state estimation using Extended Kalman Filter has been successfully tested on a multi-machine system. Sensitivity studies with respect to noise levels, sampling rates, model errors, and parameter errors are presented as well to illustrate the robust performance of the developed dynamic state estimation process.« less

Decrease in the orbital period of Hercules X-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deeter, John E.; Boynton, Paul E.; Miyamoto, Sigenori; Kitamoto, Shunji; Nagase, Fumiaki; Kawai, Nobuyuki

1991-01-01

From a pulse-timing analysis of Ginga observations of the binary X-ray pulsar Her X-1 obtained during the interval 1989 April-June local orbital parameters are determined for a short high state. An orbital epoch is also determined in the adjacent main high state. By comparing these orbital solutions with previously published results, a decrease is detected in the orbital period for Her X-1 over the interval 1971-1989. The value is substantially larger than the value predicted from current estimates of the mass-transfer rate, and motivates consideration of other mechanisms of mass transfer and/or mass loss. A second result from these observations is a close agreement between orbital parameters determined separately in main high and short high states. This agreement places strong constraints on the obliquity of the stellar companion, HZ Her, if undergoing forced precession with a 35-day period. As a consequence further doubt is placed on the slaved-disk model as the underlying cause of the 35-day cycle in Her X-1.

Ground-water discharge determined from estimates of evapotranspiration, Death Valley regional flow system, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laczniak, Randell J.; Smith, J. LaRue; Elliott, Peggy E.; DeMeo, Guy A.; Chatigny, Melissa A.; Roemer, Gaius J.

2001-01-01

The Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS) is one of the larger ground-water flow systems in the southwestern United States and includes much of southern Nevada and the Death Valley region of eastern California. Centrally located within the ground-water flow system is the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The NTS, a large tract covering about 1,375 square miles, historically has been used for testing nuclear devices and currently is being studied as a potential repository for the long-term storage of high-level nuclear waste generated in the United States. The U.S. Department of Energy, as mandated by Federal and State regulators, is evaluating the risk associated with contaminants that have been or may be introduced into the subsurface as a consequence of any past or future activities at the NTS. Because subsurface contaminants can be transported away from the NTS by ground water, components of the ground-water budget are of great interest. One such component is regional ground-water discharge. Most of the ground water leaving the DVRFS is limited to local areas where geologic and hydrologic conditions force ground water upward toward the surface to discharge at springs and seeps. Available estimates of ground-water discharge are based primarily on early work done as part of regional reconnaissance studies. These early efforts covered large, geologically complex areas and often applied substantially different techniques to estimate ground-water discharge. This report describes the results of a study that provides more consistent, accurate, and scientifically defensible measures of regional ground-water losses from each of the major discharge areas of the DVRFS. Estimates of ground-water discharge presented in this report are based on a rigorous quantification of local evapotranspiration (ET). The study identifies areas of ongoing ground-water ET, delineates different ET areas based on similarities in vegetation and soil-moisture conditions, and determines an ET rate for each delineated area. Each area, referred to as an ET unit, generally consists of one or more assemblages of local phreatophytes or a unique moist soil environment. Ten ET units are identified throughout the DVRFS based on differences in spectral-reflectance characteristics. Spectral differences are determined from satellite imagery acquired June 21, 1989, and June 13, 1992. The units identified include areas of open playa, moist bare soils, sparse to dense vegetation, and open water. ET rates estimated for each ET unit range from a few tenths of a foot per year for open playa to nearly 9 feet per year for open water. Mean annual ET estimates are computed for each discharge area by summing estimates of annual ET from each ET unit within a discharge area. The estimate of annual ET from each ET unit is computed as the product of an ET unit's acreage and estimated ET rate. Estimates of mean annual ET range from 450 acre-feet in the Franklin Well area to 30,000 acre-feet in Sarcobatus Flat. Ground-water discharge is estimated as annual ET minus that part of ET attributed to local precipitation. Mean annual ground-water discharge estimates range from 350 acre-feet in the Franklin Well area to 18,000 acre-feet in Ash Meadows. Generally, these estimates are greater for the northern discharge areas (Sarcobatus Flat and Oasis Valley) and less for the southern discharge areas (Franklin Lake, Shoshone area, and Tecopa/ California Valley area) than those previously reported.

A global atlas of GEOS-3 significant waveheight data and comparison of the data with national buoy data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcmillan, J. D.

1981-01-01

The accuracy of the GEOS-3 significant waveheight estimates compared with buoy measurements of significant waveheight were determined. A global atlas of the GEOS-3 significant waveheight estimates gathered is presented. The GEOS-3 significant waveheight estimation algorithm is derived by analyzing the return waveform characteristics of the altimeter. Convergence considerations are examined, the rationale for a smoothing technique is presented and the convergence characteristics of the smoothed estimate are discussed. The GEOS-3 data are selected for comparison with buoy measurements. The GEOS-3 significant waveheight estimates are assembled in the form of a global atlas of contour maps. Both high and low sea state contour maps are presented, and the data are displayed both by seasons and for the entire duration of the GEOS-3 mission.

An application of cluster analysis for determining homogeneous subregions: The agroclimatological point of view. [Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Cappelletti, C. A.

1982-01-01

A stratification oriented to crop area and yield estimation problems was performed using an algorithm of clustering. The variables used were a set of agroclimatological characteristics measured in each one of the 232 municipalities of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. A nonhierarchical cluster analysis was used and the pseudo F-statistics criterion was implemented for determining the "cut point" in the number of strata.

Conductimetric determination of decomposition of silicate melts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroeger, C.; Lieck, K.

1986-01-01

A description of a procedure is given to detect decomposition of silicate systems in the liquid state by conductivity measurements. Onset of decomposition can be determined from the temperature curves of resistances measured on two pairs of electrodes, one above the other. Degree of decomposition can be estimated from temperature and concentration dependency of conductivity of phase boundaries. This procedure was tested with systems PbO-B2O3 and PbO-B2O3-SiO2.

General Method for Constructing Local Hidden Variable Models for Entangled Quantum States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, D.; Guerini, L.; Rabelo, R.; Skrzypczyk, P.

2016-11-01

Entanglement allows for the nonlocality of quantum theory, which is the resource behind device-independent quantum information protocols. However, not all entangled quantum states display nonlocality. A central question is to determine the precise relation between entanglement and nonlocality. Here we present the first general test to decide whether a quantum state is local, and show that the test can be implemented by semidefinite programing. This method can be applied to any given state and for the construction of new examples of states with local hidden variable models for both projective and general measurements. As applications, we provide a lower-bound estimate of the fraction of two-qubit local entangled states and present new explicit examples of such states, including those that arise from physical noise models, Bell-diagonal states, and noisy Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and W states.

A Comparison of Nonlinear Filters for Orbit Determination and Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Com- mand uses a nonlinear least squares filter for element set maintenance for all objects orbiting the Earth (3). These objects, including active...initial state vector is the singularly averaged classical orbital element set provided by SPACECOM/DOA. The state vector in this research consists of...GSF (G) - - 26.0 36.7 GSF(A) 32.1 77.4 38.8 59.6 The Air Force Space Command is responsible for main- taining current orbital element sets for about

Epidemiology and Ecology of the California Serogroup Viruses

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-01-01

from Kappus et- i al. 6). . . . -20- -________________________- ported by state, and each state’s relative rank in - ’ " 63 84 82 4867 18 84 70 71 72...1985 (from Kappus et al. ’ and "’. residing or working in enzootic areas. 7 Monath P. Monath, CDC, Ft. Collins. personal communica- and associates 7...increased, so that LAC virus en- determined: however, Kappus and colleagues" S. cephalitis is now recognized as an important hu- estimated from Monath

Rotational Spectrum of 1,1-Difluoroethane: Internal Rotation Analysis and Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villamanan, R. M.; Chen, W. D.; Wlodarczak, G.; Demaison, J.; Lesarri, A. G.; Lopez, J. C.; Alonso, J. L.

1995-05-01

The rotational spectrum of CH3CHF2 in its ground state was measured up to 653 GHz. Accurate rotational and centrifugal distortion constants were determined. The internal rotation splittings were analyzed using the internal axis method. An ab initio structure has been calculated and a near-equilibrium structure has been estimated using offsets derived empirically. This structure was compared to an experimental r0 structure. The four lowest excited states (including the methyl torsion) have also been assigned.

Reliability of reservoir firm yield determined from the historical drought of record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, S.A.; Vogel, R.M.

2005-01-01

The firm yield of a reservoir is typically defined as the maximum yield that could have been delivered without failure during the historical drought of record. In the future, reservoirs will experience droughts that are either more or less severe than the historical drought of record. The question addressed here is what the reliability of such systems will be when operated at the firm yield. To address this question, we examine the reliability of 25 hypothetical reservoirs sited across five locations in the central and western United States. These locations provided a continuous 756-month streamflow record spanning the same time interval. The firm yield of each reservoir was estimated from the historical drought of record at each location. To determine the steady-state monthly reliability of each firm-yield estimate, 12,000-month synthetic records were generated using the moving-blocks bootstrap method. Bootstrapping was repeated 100 times for each reservoir to obtain an average steady-state monthly reliability R, the number of months the reservoir did not fail divided by the total months. Values of R were greater than 0.99 for 60 percent of the study reservoirs; the other 40 percent ranged from 0.95 to 0.98. Estimates of R were highly correlated with both the level of development (ratio of firm yield to average streamflow) and average lag-1 monthly autocorrelation. Together these two predictors explained 92 percent of the variability in R, with the level of development alone explaining 85 percent of the variability. Copyright ASCE 2005.

Equation of State for Isospin Asymmetric Nuclear Matter Using Lane Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, D. N.; Chowdhury, P. Roy; Samanta, C.

2006-10-01

A mean field calculation for obtaining the equation of state (EOS) for symmetric nuclear matter from a density dependent M3Y interaction supplemented by a zero-range potential is described. The energy per nucleon is minimized to obtain the ground state of symmetric nuclear matter. The saturation energy per nucleon used for nuclear matter calculations is determined from the co-efficient of the volume term of Bethe--Weizsäcker mass formula which is evaluated by fitting the recent experimental and estimated atomic mass excesses from Audi--Wapstra--Thibault atomic mass table by minimizing the mean square deviation. The constants of density dependence of the effective interaction are obtained by reproducing the saturation energy per nucleon and the saturation density of spin and isospin symmetric cold infinite nuclear matter. The EOS of symmetric nuclear matter, thus obtained, provide reasonably good estimate of nuclear incompressibility. Once the constants of density dependence are determined, EOS for asymmetric nuclear matter is calculated by adding to the isoscalar part, the isovector component of the M3Y interaction that do not contribute to the EOS of symmetric nuclear matter. These EOS are then used to calculate the pressure, the energy density and the velocity of sound in symmetric as well as isospin asymmetric nuclear matter.

(abstract) Monitoring Seasonal State and Mapping Species in Alaskan Taiga Using Imaging Radar as Input to CO(sub 2) Flux Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Way, J. B.; Rignot, E.; McDonald, K.; Adams, P.; Viereck, L.

1993-01-01

Changes in the seasonal CO(sub 2) flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO(sub 2) concentrations and associated atmospheric warming. To monitor this potential change, a combination of remote sensing information and ecophysiological models are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to provide some of the input to the ecophysiological models: forest type, freeze/thaw state which limits the growing season for conifers, and leaf on/off state which limits the growing season for deciduous species. AIRSAR data collected in March 1988 during an early thaw event and May 1991 during spring breakup are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off and soil freeze/thaw transitions. Finally, a CO(sub 2) flux algorithm which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO(sub 2) flux is presented. CO(sub 2) flux maps are generated from which areal estimates of CO(sub 2) flux are derived.

Retailing in Tennessee 1979

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-01-01

Data are summarized on retail sales compiled from sales tax records. Contained in this report are retail sales estimates for the 95 counties in the State of Tennessee and 294 cities, towns or parts of towns which are shown in various degrees of detail depending on disclosure restrictions. Number of firms is determined by the total number of reports submitted. Sales and percent distribution of sales are shown for the State of Tennessee and counties by Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) designation and by various county groupings based on the size of largest city. A list of counties by SMSAmore » designation and by size class of largest city is given in the Appendix. The number of firms and estimated retail sales are also shown for 10 business groups.« less

The relationship between gun ownership and firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981-2010.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Ross, Craig S; King, Charles

2013-11-01

We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy-the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm-and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level. We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides.

Estimation of Filling and Afterload Conditions by Pump Intrinsic Parameters in a Pulsatile Total Artificial Heart.

PubMed

Cuenca-Navalon, Elena; Laumen, Marco; Finocchiaro, Thomas; Steinseifer, Ulrich

2016-07-01

A physiological control algorithm is being developed to ensure an optimal physiological interaction between the ReinHeart total artificial heart (TAH) and the circulatory system. A key factor for that is the long-term, accurate determination of the hemodynamic state of the cardiovascular system. This study presents a method to determine estimation models for predicting hemodynamic parameters (pump chamber filling and afterload) from both left and right cardiovascular circulations. The estimation models are based on linear regression models that correlate filling and afterload values with pump intrinsic parameters derived from measured values of motor current and piston position. Predictions for filling lie in average within 5% from actual values, predictions for systemic afterload (AoPmean , AoPsys ) and mean pulmonary afterload (PAPmean ) lie in average within 9% from actual values. Predictions for systolic pulmonary afterload (PAPsys ) present an average deviation of 14%. The estimation models show satisfactory prediction and confidence intervals and are thus suitable to estimate hemodynamic parameters. This method and derived estimation models are a valuable alternative to implanted sensors and are an essential step for the development of a physiological control algorithm for a fully implantable TAH. Copyright © 2015 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Finite Element A Posteriori Error Estimation for Heat Conduction. Degree awarded by George Washington Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Christapher G.; Bey, Kim S. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This research investigates residual-based a posteriori error estimates for finite element approximations of heat conduction in single-layer and multi-layered materials. The finite element approximation, based upon hierarchical modelling combined with p-version finite elements, is described with specific application to a two-dimensional, steady state, heat-conduction problem. Element error indicators are determined by solving an element equation for the error with the element residual as a source, and a global error estimate in the energy norm is computed by collecting the element contributions. Numerical results of the performance of the error estimate are presented by comparisons to the actual error. Two methods are discussed and compared for approximating the element boundary flux. The equilibrated flux method provides more accurate results for estimating the error than the average flux method. The error estimation is applied to multi-layered materials with a modification to the equilibrated flux method to approximate the discontinuous flux along a boundary at the material interfaces. A directional error indicator is developed which distinguishes between the hierarchical modeling error and the finite element error. Numerical results are presented for single-layered materials which show that the directional indicators accurately determine which contribution to the total error dominates.

Estimation of Transport and Kinetic Parameters of Vanadium Redox Batteries Using Static Cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Seong Beom; Pratt, III, Harry D.; Anderson, Travis M.

Mathematical models of Redox Flow Batteries (RFBs) can be used to analyze cell performance, optimize battery operation, and control the energy storage system efficiently. Among many other models, physics-based electrochemical models are capable of predicting internal states of the battery, such as temperature, state-of-charge, and state-of-health. In the models, estimating parameters is an important step that can study, analyze, and validate the models using experimental data. A common practice is to determine these parameters either through conducting experiments or based on the information available in the literature. However, it is not easy to investigate all proper parameters for the modelsmore » through this way, and there are occasions when important information, such as diffusion coefficients and rate constants of ions, has not been studied. Also, the parameters needed for modeling charge-discharge are not always available. In this paper, an efficient way to estimate parameters of physics-based redox battery models will be proposed. Furthermore, this paper also demonstrates that the proposed approach can study and analyze aspects of capacity loss/fade, kinetics, and transport phenomena of the RFB system.« less

Estimation of Transport and Kinetic Parameters of Vanadium Redox Batteries Using Static Cells

DOE PAGES

Lee, Seong Beom; Pratt, III, Harry D.; Anderson, Travis M.; ...

2018-03-27

Mathematical models of Redox Flow Batteries (RFBs) can be used to analyze cell performance, optimize battery operation, and control the energy storage system efficiently. Among many other models, physics-based electrochemical models are capable of predicting internal states of the battery, such as temperature, state-of-charge, and state-of-health. In the models, estimating parameters is an important step that can study, analyze, and validate the models using experimental data. A common practice is to determine these parameters either through conducting experiments or based on the information available in the literature. However, it is not easy to investigate all proper parameters for the modelsmore » through this way, and there are occasions when important information, such as diffusion coefficients and rate constants of ions, has not been studied. Also, the parameters needed for modeling charge-discharge are not always available. In this paper, an efficient way to estimate parameters of physics-based redox battery models will be proposed. Furthermore, this paper also demonstrates that the proposed approach can study and analyze aspects of capacity loss/fade, kinetics, and transport phenomena of the RFB system.« less

Building versatile bipartite probes for quantum metrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farace, Alessandro; De Pasquale, Antonella; Adesso, Gerardo; Giovannetti, Vittorio

2016-01-01

We consider bipartite systems as versatile probes for the estimation of transformations acting locally on one of the subsystems. We investigate what resources are required for the probes to offer a guaranteed level of metrological performance, when the latter is averaged over specific sets of local transformations. We quantify such a performance via the average skew information (AvSk), a convex quantity which we compute in closed form for bipartite states of arbitrary dimensions, and which is shown to be strongly dependent on the degree of local purity of the probes. Our analysis contrasts and complements the recent series of studies focused on the minimum, rather than the average, performance of bipartite probes in local estimation tasks, which was instead determined by quantum correlations other than entanglement. We provide explicit prescriptions to characterize the most reliable states maximizing the AvSk, and elucidate the role of state purity, separability and correlations in the classification of optimal probes. Our results can help in the identification of useful resources for sensing, estimation and discrimination applications when complete knowledge of the interaction mechanism realizing the local transformation is unavailable, and access to pure entangled probes is technologically limited.

Development of a real-time system for ITER first wall heat load control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, Himank; de Vries, Peter; Gribov, Yuri; Pitts, Richard; Snipes, Joseph; Zabeo, Luca

2017-10-01

The steady state heat flux on the ITER first wall (FW) panels are limited by the heat removal capacity of the water cooling system. In case of off-normal events (e.g. plasma displacement during H-L transitions), the heat loads are predicted to exceed the design limits (2-4.7 MW/m2). Intense heat loads are predicted on the FW, even well before the burning plasma phase. Thus, a real-time (RT) FW heat load control system is mandatory from early plasma operation of the ITER tokamak. A heat load estimator based on the RT equilibrium reconstruction has been developed for the plasma control system (PCS). A scheme, estimating the energy state for prescribed gaps defined as the distance between the last closed flux surface (LCFS)/separatrix and the FW is presented. The RT energy state is determined by the product of a weighted function of gap distance and the power crossing the plasma boundary. In addition, a heat load estimator assuming a simplified FW geometry and parallel heat transport model in the scrape-off layer (SOL), benchmarked against a full 3-D magnetic field line tracer is also presented.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a multistate approach to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (Feaster and others, 2014). The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of streamflow-gaging station (streamgages) available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamgages in the Southeastern United States. This investigation was funded as part of a cooperative program of water-resources investigations between the USGS, the South Carolina Department of Transportation, and the North Carolina Department of Transportation. In addition, much of the data and information for the Georgia streamgages was funded through a similar cooperative program with the Georgia Department of Transportation.

Estimation and Identifiability of Model Parameters in Human Nociceptive Processing Using Yes-No Detection Responses to Electrocutaneous Stimulation.

PubMed

Yang, Huan; Meijer, Hil G E; Buitenweg, Jan R; van Gils, Stephan A

2016-01-01

Healthy or pathological states of nociceptive subsystems determine different stimulus-response relations measured from quantitative sensory testing. In turn, stimulus-response measurements may be used to assess these states. In a recently developed computational model, six model parameters characterize activation of nerve endings and spinal neurons. However, both model nonlinearity and limited information in yes-no detection responses to electrocutaneous stimuli challenge to estimate model parameters. Here, we address the question whether and how one can overcome these difficulties for reliable parameter estimation. First, we fit the computational model to experimental stimulus-response pairs by maximizing the likelihood. To evaluate the balance between model fit and complexity, i.e., the number of model parameters, we evaluate the Bayesian Information Criterion. We find that the computational model is better than a conventional logistic model regarding the balance. Second, our theoretical analysis suggests to vary the pulse width among applied stimuli as a necessary condition to prevent structural non-identifiability. In addition, the numerically implemented profile likelihood approach reveals structural and practical non-identifiability. Our model-based approach with integration of psychophysical measurements can be useful for a reliable assessment of states of the nociceptive system.

EPA'S COASTAL 2000 MONITORING PROGRAM IN THE NORTHEAST U.S.: CONSISTENCY IN METHODS AND QUALITY ASSURANCE

EPA Science Inventory

As part of EPA's national Coastal 2000 effort to estimate the ecological condition of our Nation's estuarine resources, sampling of the estuaries of the northeast United States (Delaware to Maine) began in the summer of 2000. Samples and data were collected to determine water qua...

36 CFR 404.9 - Miscellaneous fee provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... United States Code and will accrue from the date of the billing. (b) Charges for unsuccessful search. ABMC may assess charges for time spent searching, even if it fails to locate the records or if records located are determined to be exempt from disclosure. If ABMC estimates that search charges are likely to...

36 CFR § 404.9 - Miscellaneous fee provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... United States Code and will accrue from the date of the billing. (b) Charges for unsuccessful search. ABMC may assess charges for time spent searching, even if it fails to locate the records or if records located are determined to be exempt from disclosure. If ABMC estimates that search charges are likely to...

36 CFR 404.9 - Miscellaneous fee provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... United States Code and will accrue from the date of the billing. (b) Charges for unsuccessful search. ABMC may assess charges for time spent searching, even if it fails to locate the records or if records located are determined to be exempt from disclosure. If ABMC estimates that search charges are likely to...

36 CFR 404.9 - Miscellaneous fee provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... United States Code and will accrue from the date of the billing. (b) Charges for unsuccessful search. ABMC may assess charges for time spent searching, even if it fails to locate the records or if records located are determined to be exempt from disclosure. If ABMC estimates that search charges are likely to...

Potential Fuel Economy Improvements from the Implementation of cEGR and CDA on an Atkinson Cycle Engine

EPA Science Inventory

Present the implementation of cEGR and CDA on an Atkinson engine and use steady state fuel consumption maps to estimate the technologies’ potential fuel economy improvements over the FTP and Highway tests. In addition to use fuel weighted modes to determine possible fuel economy...

Interpreting Recruitment Limitation in Forests

Treesearch

J.S. Clark; B. Beckage; P. Camill; B. Cleveland; J. HilleRisLambers; J. Lichter; J. McLachlan; J. Mohan; P. Wyckoff

1999-01-01

Studies of tree recruitment are many, but they provide few general insights into the role of recruitment limitation for population dynamics. That role depends on the vital rates (transitions) from seed production to sapling stages and on overall population growth. To determine the state of our understanding of recruitment limitation we examined how well we can estimate...

Determination of Molecular Size and Avogadro's Number: A Student Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexandrakis, George C.

1978-01-01

Describes an experiment for estimating molecular size and Avogadro's number. Uses the diffusion length of iodine in air at 100 degrees Celsius as a function of time, and the change in volume of a small quantity of carbon dioxide as it goes from the solid to the gaseous state. (GA)

Importance of Preserving Cross-correlation in developing Statistically Downscaled Climate Forcings and in estimating Land-surface Fluxes and States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das Bhowmik, R.; Arumugam, S.

2015-12-01

Multivariate downscaling techniques exhibited superiority over univariate regression schemes in terms of preserving cross-correlations between multiple variables- precipitation and temperature - from GCMs. This study focuses on two aspects: (a) develop an analytical solutions on estimating biases in cross-correlations from univariate downscaling approaches and (b) quantify the uncertainty in land-surface states and fluxes due to biases in cross-correlations in downscaled climate forcings. Both these aspects are evaluated using climate forcings available from both historical climate simulations and CMIP5 hindcasts over the entire US. The analytical solution basically relates the univariate regression parameters, co-efficient of determination of regression and the co-variance ratio between GCM and downscaled values. The analytical solutions are compared with the downscaled univariate forcings by choosing the desired p-value (Type-1 error) in preserving the observed cross-correlation. . For quantifying the impacts of biases on cross-correlation on estimating streamflow and groundwater, we corrupt the downscaled climate forcings with different cross-correlation structure.

Estimation of state and material properties during heat-curing molding of composite materials using data assimilation: A numerical study.

PubMed

Matsuzaki, Ryosuke; Tachikawa, Takeshi; Ishizuka, Junya

2018-03-01

Accurate simulations of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) molding are vital for the development of high-quality products. However, such simulations are challenging and previous attempts to improve the accuracy of simulations by incorporating the data acquired from mold monitoring have not been completely successful. Therefore, in the present study, we developed a method to accurately predict various CFRP thermoset molding characteristics based on data assimilation, a process that combines theoretical and experimental values. The degree of cure as well as temperature and thermal conductivity distributions during the molding process were estimated using both temperature data and numerical simulations. An initial numerical experiment demonstrated that the internal mold state could be determined solely from the surface temperature values. A subsequent numerical experiment to validate this method showed that estimations based on surface temperatures were highly accurate in the case of degree of cure and internal temperature, although predictions of thermal conductivity were more difficult.

Real time charge efficiency monitoring for nickel electrodes in NICD and NIH2 cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerman, A. H.

1987-09-01

The charge efficiency of nickel-cadmium and nickel-hydrogen battery cells is critical in spacecraft applications for determining the amount of time required for a battery to reach a full state of charge. As the nickel-cadmium or nickel-hydrogen batteries approach about 90 percent state of charge, the charge efficiency begins to drop towards zero, making estimation of the total amount of stored charge uncertain. Charge efficiency estimates are typically based on prior history of available capacity following standardized conditions for charge and discharge. These methods work well as long as performance does not change significantly. A relatively simple method for determining charge efficiencies during real time operation for these battery cells would be a tremendous advantage. Such a method was explored and appears to be quite well suited for application to nickel-cadmium and nickel-hydrogen battery cells. The charge efficiency is monitored in real time, using only voltage measurements as inputs. With further evaluation such a method may provide a means to better manage charge control of batteries, particularly in systems where a high degree of autonomy or system intelligence is required.

An empirical analysis of farm vehicle crash injury severities on Iowa's public road system.

PubMed

Gkritza, Konstantina; Kinzenbaw, Caroline R; Hallmark, Shauna; Hawkins, Neal

2010-07-01

Farm vehicle crashes are a major safety concern for farmers as well as all other users of the public road system in agricultural states. Using data on farm vehicle crashes that occurred on Iowa's public roads between 2004 and 2006, we estimate a multinomial logit model to identify crash-, farm vehicle-, and driver-specific factors that determine farm vehicle crash injury severity outcomes. Estimation findings indicate that there are crash patterns (rear-end manner of collision; single-vehicle crash; farm vehicle crossed the centerline or median) and conditions (obstructed vision and crash in rural area; dry road, dark lighting, speed limit 55 mph or higher, and harvesting season), as well as farm vehicle and driver-contributing characteristics (old farm vehicle, young farm vehicle driver), where targeted intervention can help reduce the severity of crash outcomes. Determining these contributing factors and their effect is the first step to identifying countermeasures and safety strategies in a bid to improve transportation safety for all users on the public road system in Iowa as well as other agricultural states. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real time charge efficiency monitoring for nickel electrodes in NICD and NIH2 cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zimmerman, A. H.

1987-01-01

The charge efficiency of nickel-cadmium and nickel-hydrogen battery cells is critical in spacecraft applications for determining the amount of time required for a battery to reach a full state of charge. As the nickel-cadmium or nickel-hydrogen batteries approach about 90 percent state of charge, the charge efficiency begins to drop towards zero, making estimation of the total amount of stored charge uncertain. Charge efficiency estimates are typically based on prior history of available capacity following standardized conditions for charge and discharge. These methods work well as long as performance does not change significantly. A relatively simple method for determining charge efficiencies during real time operation for these battery cells would be a tremendous advantage. Such a method was explored and appears to be quite well suited for application to nickel-cadmium and nickel-hydrogen battery cells. The charge efficiency is monitored in real time, using only voltage measurements as inputs. With further evaluation such a method may provide a means to better manage charge control of batteries, particularly in systems where a high degree of autonomy or system intelligence is required.

Development of requirements for environmental specimen banking in ecological monitoring (exemplified by the Chernobyl NPP accident area).

PubMed

Borzilov, V A

1993-11-01

Development of requirements for a data bank for natural media as a system of intercorrelated parameters to estimate system states are determined. The problems of functional agreement between experimental and calculation methods are analysed when organizing the ecological monitoring. The methods of forming the environmental specimen bank to estimate and forecast radioactive contamination and exposure dose are considered to be exemplified by the peculiarities of the spatial distribution of radioactive contamination in fields. Analysed is the temporal dynamics of contamination for atmospheric air, soil and water.

Estimation of temperature in micromaser-type systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farajollahi, B.; Jafarzadeh, M.; Rangani Jahromi, H.; Amniat-Talab, M.

2018-06-01

We address the estimation of the number of photons and temperature in a micromaser-type system with Fock state and thermal fields. We analyze the behavior of the quantum Fisher information (QFI) for both fields. In particular, we show that in the Fock state field model, the QFI for non-entangled initial state of the atoms increases monotonously with time, while for entangled initial state of the atoms, it shows oscillatory behavior, leading to non-Markovian dynamics. Moreover, it is observed that the QFI, entropy of entanglement and fidelity have collapse and revival behavior. Focusing on each period that the collapses and revivals occur, we see that the optimal points of the QFI and entanglement coincide. In addition, when one of the subsystems evolved state fidelity becomes maximum, the QFI also achieves its maximum. We also address the evolved fidelity versus the initial state as a good witness of non-Markovianity. Moreover, we interestingly find that the entropy of the composite system can be used as a witness of non-Markovian evolution of the subsystems. For the thermal field model, we similarly investigate the relation among the QFI associated with the temperature, von Neumann entropy, and fidelity. In particular, it is found that at the instants when the maximum values of the QFI are achieved, the entanglement between the two-qubit system and the environment is maximized while the entanglement between the probe and its environment is minimized. Moreover, we show that the thermometry may lead to optimal estimation of practical temperatures. Besides, extending our computation to the two-qubit system, we find that using a two-qubit probe generally leads to more effective estimation than the one-qubit scenario. Finally, we show that initial state entanglement plays a key role in the advent of non-Markovianity and determination of its strength in the composite system and its subsystems.

Analysis of filter tuning techniques for sequential orbit determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, T.; Yee, C.; Oza, D.

1995-01-01

This paper examines filter tuning techniques for a sequential orbit determination (OD) covariance analysis. Recently, there has been a renewed interest in sequential OD, primarily due to the successful flight qualification of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Onboard Navigation System (TONS) using Doppler data extracted onboard the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) spacecraft. TONS computes highly accurate orbit solutions onboard the spacecraft in realtime using a sequential filter. As the result of the successful TONS-EUVE flight qualification experiment, the Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 Project has selected TONS as the prime navigation system. In addition, sequential OD methods can be used successfully for ground OD. Whether data are processed onboard or on the ground, a sequential OD procedure is generally favored over a batch technique when a realtime automated OD system is desired. Recently, OD covariance analyses were performed for the TONS-EUVE and TONS-EOS missions using the sequential processing options of the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS). ODEAS is the primary covariance analysis system used by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The results of these analyses revealed a high sensitivity of the OD solutions to the state process noise filter tuning parameters. The covariance analysis results show that the state estimate error contributions from measurement-related error sources, especially those due to the random noise and satellite-to-satellite ionospheric refraction correction errors, increase rapidly as the state process noise increases. These results prompted an in-depth investigation of the role of the filter tuning parameters in sequential OD covariance analysis. This paper analyzes how the spacecraft state estimate errors due to dynamic and measurement-related error sources are affected by the process noise level used. This information is then used to establish guidelines for determining optimal filter tuning parameters in a given sequential OD scenario for both covariance analysis and actual OD. Comparisons are also made with corresponding definitive OD results available from the TONS-EUVE analysis.

Impact of double counting and transfer bias on estimated rates and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Westfall, J M; McGloin, J

2001-05-01

Ischemic heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. Recent studies report inconsistent findings on the changes in the incidence of hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease. These reports have relied primarily on hospital discharge data. Preliminary data suggest that a significant percentage of patients suffering acute myocardial infarction (MI) in rural communities are transferred to urban centers for care. Patients transferred to a second hospital may be counted twice for one episode of ischemic heart disease. To describe the impact of double counting and transfer bias on the estimation of incidence rates and outcomes of ischemic heart disease, specifically acute MI, in the United States. Analysis of state hospital discharge data from Kansas, Colorado (State Inpatient Database [SID]), Nebraska, Arizona, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois (SID) for the years 1995 to 1997. A matching algorithm was developed for hospital discharges to determine patients counted twice for one episode of ischemic heart disease. Validation of our matching algorithm. Patients reported to have suffered ischemic heart disease (ICD9 codes 410-414, 786.5). Number of patients counted twice for one episode of acute MI. It is estimated that double count rates range from 10% to 15% for all states and increased over the 3 years. Moderate sized rural counties had the highest estimated double count rates at 15% to 20% with a few counties having estimated double count rates a high as 35% to 50%. Older patients and females were less likely to be double counted (P <0.05). Double counting patients has resulted in a significant overestimation in the incidence rate for hospitalization for acute MI. Correction of this double counting reveals a significantly lower incidence rate and a higher in-hospital mortality rate for acute MI. Transferred patients differ significantly from nontransferred patients, introducing significant bias into MI outcome studies. Double counting and transfer bias should be considered when conducting and interpreting research on ischemic heart disease, particularly in rural regions.

Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, J.

1995-01-01

This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are independently known, the timetag error for a single sensor can be accurately estimated as long as its boresight is not too close to the spacecraft rotation axis.

Estimation of Chlorophyll-a Concentration and the Trophic State of the Barra Bonita Hydroelectric Reservoir Using OLI/Landsat-8 Images

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Fernanda Sayuri Yoshino; Alcântara, Enner; Rodrigues, Thanan Walesza Pequeno; Imai, Nilton Nobuhiro; Barbosa, Cláudio Clemente Faria; Rotta, Luiz Henrique da Silva

2015-01-01

Reservoirs are artificial environments built by humans, and the impacts of these environments are not completely known. Retention time and high nutrient availability in the water increases the eutrophic level. Eutrophication is directly correlated to primary productivity by phytoplankton. These organisms have an important role in the environment. However, high concentrations of determined species can lead to public health problems. Species of cyanobacteria produce toxins that in determined concentrations can cause serious diseases in the liver and nervous system, which could lead to death. Phytoplankton has photoactive pigments that can be used to identify these toxins. Thus, remote sensing data is a viable alternative for mapping these pigments, and consequently, the trophic. Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is present in all phytoplankton species. Therefore, the aim of this work was to evaluate the performance of images of the sensor Operational Land Imager (OLI) onboard the Landsat-8 satellite in determining Chl-a concentrations and estimating the trophic level in a tropical reservoir. Empirical models were fitted using data from two field surveys conducted in May and October 2014 (Austral Autumn and Austral Spring, respectively). Models were applied in a temporal series of OLI images from May 2013 to October 2014. The estimated Chl-a concentration was used to classify the trophic level from a trophic state index that adopted the concentration of this pigment-like parameter. The models of Chl-a concentration showed reasonable results, but their performance was likely impaired by the atmospheric correction. Consequently, the trophic level classification also did not obtain better results. PMID:26322489

How Single-site Mutation Affects HP Lattice Proteins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Guangjie; Landau, David P.; Vogel, Thomas; Wüst, Thomas; Li, Ying Wai

2014-03-01

We developed a heuristic method based on Wang-Landauand multicanonical sampling for determining the ground-state degeneracy of HP lattice proteins . Our algorithm allowed the most precise estimations of the (sometimes substantial) ground-state degeneracies of some widely studied HP sequences. We investigated the effects of single-site mutation on specific long HP lattice proteins comprehensively, including structural changes in ground-states, changes of ground-state degeneracy and thermodynamic properties of the systems. Both extremely sensitive and insensitive cases have been observed; consequently, properties such as specific heat, tortuosities etc. may be either largely unaffected or may change significantly due to mutation. More interestingly, mutation can even induce a lower ground-state energy in a few cases. Supported by NSF.

Assessment of iron status in settings of inflammation: challenges and potential approaches.

PubMed

Suchdev, Parminder S; Williams, Anne M; Mei, Zuguo; Flores-Ayala, Rafael; Pasricha, Sant-Rayn; Rogers, Lisa M; Namaste, Sorrel Ml

2017-12-01

The determination of iron status is challenging when concomitant infection and inflammation are present because of confounding effects of the acute-phase response on the interpretation of most iron indicators. This review summarizes the effects of inflammation on indicators of iron status and assesses the impact of a regression analysis to adjust for inflammation on estimates of iron deficiency (ID) in low- and high-infection-burden settings. We overviewed cross-sectional data from 16 surveys for preschool children (PSC) ( n = 29,765) and from 10 surveys for nonpregnant women of reproductive age (WRA) ( n = 25,731) from the Biomarkers Reflecting the Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anemia (BRINDA) project. Effects of C-reactive protein (CRP) and α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) concentrations on estimates of ID according to serum ferritin (SF) (used generically to include plasma ferritin), soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), and total body iron (TBI) were summarized in relation to infection burden (in the United States compared with other countries) and population group (PSC compared with WRA). Effects of the concentrations of CRP and AGP on SF, sTfR, and TBI were generally linear, especially in PSC. Overall, regression correction changed the estimated prevalence of ID in PSC by a median of +25 percentage points (pps) when SF concentrations were used, by -15 pps when sTfR concentrations were used, and by +14 pps when TBI was used; the estimated prevalence of ID in WRA changed by a median of +8 pps when SF concentrations were used, by -10 pps when sTfR concentrations were used, and by +3 pps when TBI was used. In the United States, inflammation correction was done only for CRP concentrations because AGP concentrations were not measured; regression correction for CRP concentrations increased the estimated prevalence of ID when SF concentrations were used by 3 pps in PSC and by 7 pps in WRA. The correction of iron-status indicators for inflammation with the use of regression correction appears to substantially change estimates of ID prevalence in low- and high-infection-burden countries. More research is needed to determine the validity of inflammation-corrected estimates, their dependence on the etiology of inflammation, and their applicability to individual iron-status assessment in clinical settings.

Ab initio determination of mode coupling in HSSH - The torsional splitting in the first excited S-S stretching state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herbst, Eric; Winnewisser, G.; Yamada, K. M. T.; Defrees, D. J.; Mclean, A. D.

1989-01-01

A mechanism for the enhanced splitting detected in the millimeter-wave rotational spectra of the first excited S-S stretching state of HSSH (disulfane) has been studied. The mechanism, which involves a potential coupling between the first excited S-S stretching state and excited torsional states, has been investigated in part by the use of ab initio theory. Based on an ab initio potential surface, coupling matrix elements have been calculated, and the amount of splitting has then been estimated by second-order perturbation theory. The result, while not in quantitative agreement with the measured splitting, lends plausibility to the assumed mechanism.

Photocyclization Reactions of Diarylethenes via the Excited Triplet State.

PubMed

Murata, Ryutaro; Yago, Tomoaki; Wakasa, Masanobu

2015-11-12

Cyclization reactions of three diarylethene derivatives, 1,2-bis(2-methyl-3-benzothienyl)perfluorocyclopentene (BT), 1,2-bis(2-hexyl-3-benzothienyl)perfluorocyclopentene (BTHex), and 1,2-bis(2-isopropyl-3-benzothienyl)perfluorocyclopentene (BTiPr), via their excited triplet states were studied by means of steady-state and nanosecond transient absorption spectroscopy. The excited triplet states of BT, BTHex, and BTiPr were generated by energy transfer from the photoexcited triplet states of sensitizers such as xanthone, phenanthrene, and pyrene. The single-step quantum yields of the cyclization reactions from the excited triplet states of BT, BTHex, and BTiPr were determined to be 0.34, 0.53, and 0.65, respectively. The triplet energies of these three BTs were estimated to be 190-200 kJ mol(-1).

Precise attitude determination of defunct satellite laser ranging tragets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittet, Jean-Noel; Schildknecht, Thomas; Silha, Jiri

2016-07-01

The Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) technology is used to determine the dynamics of objects equipped with so-called retro-reflectors or retro-reflector arrays (RRA). This type of measurement allows to range to the spacecraft with very high precision, which leads to determination of very accurate orbits. Non-active spacecraft, which are not any more attitude controlled, tend to start to spin or tumble under influence of the external and internal torques. Such a spinning can be around one constant axis of rotation or it can be more complex, when also precession and nutation motions are present. The rotation of the RRA around the spacecraft's centre of mass can create both a oscillation pattern of laser range signal and a periodic signal interruption when the RRA is hidden behind the satellite. In our work we will demonstrate how the SLR ranging technique to cooperative targets can be used to determine precisely their attitude state. The processing of the obtained data will be discussed, as well as the attitude determination based on parameters estimation. Continuous SLR measurements to one target can allow to accurately monitor attitude change over time which can be further used for the future attitude modelling. We will show our solutions of the attitude states determined for the non-active ESA satellite ENVISAT based on measurements acquired during year 2013-2015 by Zimmerwald SLR station, Switzerland. The angular momentum shows a stable behaviour with respect to the orbital plane but is not aligned with orbital momentum. The determination of the inertial rotation over time, shows it evolving between 130 to 190 seconds within two year. Parameter estimation also bring a strong indication of a retrograde rotation. Results on other former satellites in low and medium Earth orbit such as TOPEX/Poseidon or GLONASS type will be also presented.

Demagnetization using a determined estimated magnetic state

DOEpatents

Denis, Ronald J; Makowski, Nathanael J

2015-01-13

A method for demagnetizing comprising positioning a core within the electromagnetic field generated by a first winding until the generated first electrical current is not substantially increasing, thereby determining a saturation current. A second voltage, having the opposite polarity, is then applied across the first winding until the generated second electrical current is approximately equal to the magnitude of the determined saturation current. The maximum magnetic flux within the core is then determined using the voltage across said first winding and the second current. A third voltage, having the opposite polarity, is then applied across the first winding until the core has a magnetic flux equal to approximately half of the determined maximum magnetic flux within the core.

The prevalence of compulsive buying: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Maraz, Aniko; Griffiths, Mark D; Demetrovics, Zsolt

2016-03-01

To estimate the pooled prevalence of compulsive buying behaviour (CBB) in different populations and to determine the effect of age, gender, location and screening instrument on the reported heterogeneity in estimates of CBB and whether publication bias could be identified. Three databases were searched (Medline, PsychInfo, Web of Science) using the terms 'compulsive buying', 'pathological buying' and 'compulsive shopping' to estimate the pooled prevalence of CBB in different populations. Forty studies reporting 49 prevalence estimates from 16 countries were located (n = 32,000). To conduct the meta-analysis, data from non-clinical studies regarding mean age and gender proportion, geographical study location and screening instrument used to assess CBB were extracted by multiple independent observers and evaluated using a random-effects model. Four a priori subgroups were analysed using pooled estimation (Cohen's Q) and covariate testing (moderator and meta-regression analysis). The CBB pooled prevalence of adult representative studies was 4.9% (3.4-6.9%, eight estimates, 10,102 participants), although estimates were higher among university students: 8.3% (5.9-11.5%, 19 estimates, 14,947 participants) in adult non-representative samples: 12.3% (7.6-19.1%, 11 estimates, 3929 participants) and in shopping-specific samples: 16.2% (8.8-27.8%, 11 estimates, 4686 participants). Being young and female were associated with increased tendency, but not location (United States versus non-United States). Meta-regression revealed large heterogeneity within subgroups, due mainly to diverse measures and time-frames (current versus life-time) used to assess CBB. A pooled estimate of compulsive buying behaviour in the populations studied is approximately 5%, but there is large variation between samples accounted for largely by use of different time-frames and measures. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Jason M.

2010-01-01

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Demographic estimation methods for plants with dormancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.

2004-01-01

Demographic studies in plants appear simple because unlike animals, plants do not run away. Plant individuals can be marked with, e.g., plastic tags, but often the coordinates of an individual may be sufficient to identify it. Vascular plants in temperate latitudes have a pronounced seasonal life–cycle, so most plant demographers survey their study plots once a year often during or shortly after flowering. Life–states are pervasive in plants, hence the results of a demographic study for an individual can be summarized in a familiar encounter history, such as 0VFVVF000. A zero means that an individual was not seen in a year and a letter denotes its state for years when it was seen aboveground. V and F here stand for vegetative and flowering states, respectively. Probabilities of survival and state transitions can then be obtained by mere counting.Problems arise when there is an unobservable dormant state, i.e., when plants may stay belowground for one or more growing seasons. Encounter histories such as 0VF00F000 may then occur where the meaning of zeroes becomes ambiguous. A zero can either mean a dead or a dormant plant. Various ad hoc methods in wide use among plant ecologists have made strong assumptions about when a zero should be equated to a dormant individual. These methods have never been compared among each other. In our talk and in Kéry et al. (submitted), we show that these ad hoc estimators provide spurious estimates of survival and should not be used.In contrast, if detection probabilities for aboveground plants are known or can be estimated, capturerecapture (CR) models can be used to estimate probabilities of survival and state–transitions and the fraction of the population that is dormant. We have used this approach in two studies of terrestrial orchids, Cleistes bifaria (Kéry et al., submitted) and Cypripedium reginae(Kéry & Gregg, submitted) in West Virginia, U.S.A. For Cleistes, our data comprised one population with a total of 620 marked ramets over 10 years, and for Cypripedium, two populations with 98 and 258 marked ramets over 11 years. We chose the ramet (= single stem or shoot) as the demographic unit of our study since there was no way distinguishing among genets (genet = genetical individual, i.e., the “individual” that animal ecologists are mostly concerned with). This will introduce some non–independence into the data, which can nevertheless be dealt with easily by correcting variances for overdispersion. Using ramets instead of genets has the further advantage that individuals can be assigned to a state such as flowering or vegetative in an unambiguous manner. This is not possible when genets are the demographic units. In all three populations, auxiliary data was available to show that detection probability of aboveground plants was m 0.995We fitted multistate models in program MARK by specifying three states (D, V, F), even though the dormant state D does not occur in the encounter histories. Detection probability is fixed at 1 for the vegetative (V) and the flowering state (F) and at zero for the dormant state (D). Rates of survival and of state transitions as well as slopes of covariate relationships can be estimated and LRT or the AIC machinery be used to select among models. To estimate the fraction of the population in the unobservabledormant state, the encounter histories are collapsed to 0 (plant not observed aboveground) and 1 (plant observed aboveground). The Cormack–Jolly–Seber model without constraints on detection probability is used to estimate detection probability, the complement of which is the estimated fraction of the population in the dormant state.Parameter identifiability is an important issue in multi state models. We used the Catchpole–Morgan–Freeman approach to determine which parameters are estimable in principle in our multi state models. Most of 15 tested models were indeed estimable with the notable exception of the most general model, which has fully interactive state- and time-dependent survival and state transition rates. This model would become identifiable if at least some plants would be excavated in years when they do not show up aboveground.Our analyses for three analyzed populations of Cleistes and Cypripedium yielded annual ramet survival rates ranging from 0.86–0.96. Estimates of the average fraction dormant ranged from 0.02–0.30, but with up to half a population in the dormant state in some years. Ultrastructural modeling enables interesting hypotheses to be tested about the relationships of demographic rates with climatic covariates for instance. Such covariate modeling makes the CR approach particularly interesting for evolutionary–ecological questions about, e.g., the adaptive significance of the dormant state.

Perspectives for laboratory implementation of the Duan-Lukin-Cirac-Zoller protocol for quantum repeaters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendes, Milrian S.; Felinto, Daniel

2011-12-15

We analyze the efficiency and scalability of the Duan-Lukin-Cirac-Zoller (DLCZ) protocol for quantum repeaters focusing on the behavior of the experimentally accessible measures of entanglement for the system, taking into account crucial imperfections of the stored entangled states. We calculate then the degradation of the final state of the quantum-repeater linear chain for increasing sizes of the chain, and characterize it by a lower bound on its concurrence and the ability to violate the Clausner-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality. The states are calculated up to an arbitrary number of stored excitations, as this number is not fundamentally bound for experiments involving large atomicmore » ensembles. The measurement by avalanche photodetectors is modeled by ''ON/OFF'' positive operator-valued measure operators. As a result, we are able to consistently test the approximation of the real fields by fields with a finite number of excitations, determining the minimum number of excitations required to achieve a desired precision in the prediction of the various measured quantities. This analysis finally determines the minimum purity of the initial state that is required to succeed in the protocol as the size of the chain increases. We also provide a more accurate estimate for the average time required to succeed in each step of the protocol. The minimum purity analysis and the new time estimates are then combined to trace the perspectives for implementation of the DLCZ protocol in present-day laboratory setups.« less

Perspectives for laboratory implementation of the Duan-Lukin-Cirac-Zoller protocol for quantum repeaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendes, Milrian S.; Felinto, Daniel

2011-12-01

We analyze the efficiency and scalability of the Duan-Lukin-Cirac-Zoller (DLCZ) protocol for quantum repeaters focusing on the behavior of the experimentally accessible measures of entanglement for the system, taking into account crucial imperfections of the stored entangled states. We calculate then the degradation of the final state of the quantum-repeater linear chain for increasing sizes of the chain, and characterize it by a lower bound on its concurrence and the ability to violate the Clausner-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality. The states are calculated up to an arbitrary number of stored excitations, as this number is not fundamentally bound for experiments involving large atomic ensembles. The measurement by avalanche photodetectors is modeled by “ON/OFF” positive operator-valued measure operators. As a result, we are able to consistently test the approximation of the real fields by fields with a finite number of excitations, determining the minimum number of excitations required to achieve a desired precision in the prediction of the various measured quantities. This analysis finally determines the minimum purity of the initial state that is required to succeed in the protocol as the size of the chain increases. We also provide a more accurate estimate for the average time required to succeed in each step of the protocol. The minimum purity analysis and the new time estimates are then combined to trace the perspectives for implementation of the DLCZ protocol in present-day laboratory setups.

Continuing global significance of emissions of Montreal Protocol-restricted halocarbons in the United States and Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurst, D. F.; Lin, J. C.; Romashkin, P. A.; Daube, B. C.; Gerbig, C.; Matross, D. M.; Wofsy, S. C.; Hall, B. D.; Elkins, J. W.

2006-08-01

Contemporary emissions of six restricted, ozone-depleting halocarbons, chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11, CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), CFC-113 (CCl2FCClF2), methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3), carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), and Halon-1211 (CBrClF2), and two nonregulated trace gases, chloroform (CHCl3) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), are estimated for the United States and Canada. The estimates derive from 900 to 2900 in situ measurements of each of these gases within and above the planetary boundary layer over the United States and Canada as part of the 2003 CO2 Budget and Regional Airborne-North America (COBRA-NA) study. Air masses polluted by anthropogenic sources, identified by concurrently elevated levels of carbon monoxide (CO), SF6, and CHCl3, were sampled over a wide geographical range of these two countries. For each polluted air mass, we calculated emission ratios of halocarbons to CO and employed the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model to determine the footprint associated with the air mass. Gridded CO emission estimates were then mapped onto the footprints and combined with measured emission ratios to generate footprint-weighted halocarbon flux estimates. We present statistically significant linear relationships between halocarbon fluxes (excluding CCl4) and footprint-weighted population densities, with slopes representative of per capita emission rates. These rates indicate that contemporary emissions of five restricted halocarbons (excluding CCl4) in the United States and Canada continue to account for significant fractions (7-40%) of global emissions.

A terrain-based site characterization map of California with implications for the contiguous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yong, Alan K.; Hough, Susan E.; Iwahashi, Junko; Braverman, Amy

2012-01-01

We present an approach based on geomorphometry to predict material properties and characterize site conditions using the VS30 parameter (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to a depth of 30 m). Our framework consists of an automated terrain classification scheme based on taxonomic criteria (slope gradient, local convexity, and surface texture) that systematically identifies 16 terrain types from 1‐km spatial resolution (30 arcsec) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation models (SRTM DEMs). Using 853 VS30 values from California, we apply a simulation‐based statistical method to determine the mean VS30 for each terrain type in California. We then compare the VS30 values with models based on individual proxies, such as mapped surface geology and topographic slope, and show that our systematic terrain‐based approach consistently performs better than semiempirical estimates based on individual proxies. To further evaluate our model, we apply our California‐based estimates to terrains of the contiguous United States. Comparisons of our estimates with 325 VS30 measurements outside of California, as well as estimates based on the topographic slope model, indicate our method to be statistically robust and more accurate. Our approach thus provides an objective and robust method for extending estimates of VS30 for regions where in situ measurements are sparse or not readily available.

Technique of estimation of actual strength of a gas pipeline section at its deformation in landslide action zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tcherni, V.P.

1996-12-31

The technique is given which permits determination of stress and strain state (SSS) and estimation of actual strength of a section of a buried main gas pipeline (GP) in the case of its deformation in a landslide action zone. The technique is based on the use of three-dimensional coordinates of axial points of the deformed GP section. These coordinates are received by a full-scale survey. The deformed axis of the surveyed GP section is described by the polynomial. The unknown coefficients of the polynomial can be determined from the boundary conditions at points of connection with contiguous undeformed sections asmore » well as by use of minimization methods in mathematical processing of full-scale survey results. The resulting form of GP section`s axis allows one to determine curvatures and, accordingly, bending moments along all the length of the considered section. The influence of soil resistance to longitudinal displacements of a pipeline is used to determine longitudinal forces. Resulting values of bending moments and axial forces as well as the known value of internal pressure are used to analyze all necessary components of an actual SSS of pipeline section and to estimate its strength by elastic analysis.« less

Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberling, George G.

This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario. The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.

Thermoelectric properties of the unfilled skutterudite FeSb 3 from first principles and Seebeck local probes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemal, Sébastien; Nguyen, Ngoc; de Boor, Johannes

2015-11-16

In this paper, using a combination of first-principles calculations and experimental transport measurements, we study the electronic and magnetic structure of the unfilled skutterudite FeSb 3. We employ the hybrid functional approach for exchange correlation. The ground state is determined to be antiferromagnetic with an atomic magnetic moment of 1.6μ B/Fe. The Néel temperature T N is estimated at 6 K, in agreement with experiments which found a paramagnetic state down to 10 K. The ground state is semiconducting, with a small electronic gap of 33meV, also consistent with previous experiments on films. Charge carrier concentrations are estimated from Hallmore » resistance measurements. The Seebeck coefficient is measured and mapped using a scanning probe at room temperature that yields an average value of 38.6μVK -1, slightly lower than the theoretical result. Finally, the theoretical conductivity is analyzed as a function of temperature and concentration of charge carriers.« less

Probability of introducing foot and mouth disease into the United States via live animal importation.

PubMed

Miller, G Y; Ming, J; Williams, I; Gorvett, R

2012-12-01

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) continues to be a disease of major concern for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and livestock industries. Foot and mouth disease virus is a high-consequence pathogen for the United States (USA). Live animal trade is a major risk factor for introduction of FMD into a country. This research estimates the probability of FMD being introduced into the USA via the legal importation of livestock. This probability is calculated by considering the potential introduction of FMD from each country from which the USA imports live animals. The total probability of introduction into the USA of FMD from imported livestock is estimated to be 0.415% per year, which is equivalent to one introduction every 241 years. In addition, to provide a basis for evaluating the significance of risk management techniques and expenditures, the sensitivity of the above result to changes in various risk parameter assumptions is determined.

Physics-of-Failure Approach to Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of the electrical components present in the system. In case of electric vehicles, computing remaining battery charge is safety-critical. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. In this presentation our approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator for different electronic components is presented which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to determine state-of-charge and estimate remaining useful life of respective components. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

The healthy migrant effect: new findings from the Mexican Family Life Survey.

PubMed

Rubalcava, Luis N; Teruel, Graciela M; Thomas, Duncan; Goldman, Noreen

2008-01-01

We used nationally representative longitudinal data from the Mexican Family Life Survey to determine whether recent migrants from Mexico to the United States are healthier than other Mexicans. Previous research has provided little scientific evidence that tests the "healthy migrant" hypothesis. Estimates were derived from logistic regressions of whether respondents moved to the United States between surveys in 2002 and 2005, by gender and urban versus rural residence. Covariates included physical health measurements, self-reported health, and education measured in 2002. Our primary sample comprised 6446 respondents aged 15 to 29 years. Health significantly predicted subsequent migration among females and rural males. However, the associations were weak, few health indicators were statistically significant, and there was substantial variation in the estimates between males and females and between urban and rural dwellers. On the basis of recent data for Mexico, the largest source of migrants to the United States, we found generally weak support for the healthy migrant hypothesis.

Representation and redistribution in federations.

PubMed

Dragu, Tiberiu; Rodden, Jonathan

2011-05-24

Many of the world's most populous democracies are political unions composed of states or provinces that are unequally represented in the national legislature. Scattered empirical studies, most of them focusing on the United States, have discovered that overrepresented states appear to receive larger shares of the national budget. Although this relationship is typically attributed to bargaining advantages associated with greater legislative representation, an important threat to empirical identification stems from the fact that the representation scheme was chosen by the provinces. Thus, it is possible that representation and fiscal transfers are both determined by other characteristics of the provinces in a specific country. To obtain an improved estimate of the relationship between representation and redistribution, we collect and analyze provincial-level data from nine federations over several decades, taking advantage of the historical process through which federations formed and expanded. Controlling for a variety of country- and province-level factors and using a variety of estimation techniques, we show that overrepresented provinces in political unions around the world are rather dramatically favored in the distribution of resources.

Classification of Reactor Facility Operational State Using SPRT Methods with Radiation Sensor Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramirez Aviles, Camila A.; Rao, Nageswara S.

We consider the problem of inferring the operational state of a reactor facility by using measurements from a radiation sensor network, which is deployed around the facility’s ventilation stack. The radiation emissions from the stack decay with distance, and the corresponding measurements are inherently random with parameters determined by radiation intensity levels at the sensor locations. We fuse measurements from network sensors to estimate the intensity at the stack, and use this estimate in a one-sided Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) to infer the on/off state of the reactor facility. We demonstrate the superior performance of this method over conventionalmore » majority vote fusers and individual sensors using (i) test measurements from a network of NaI sensors, and (ii) emulated measurements using radioactive effluents collected at a reactor facility stack. We analytically quantify the performance improvements of individual sensors and their networks with adaptive thresholds over those with fixed ones, by using the packing number of the radiation intensity space.« less

An Adaptive Nonlinear Basal-Bolus Calculator for Patients With Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Boiroux, Dimitri; Aradóttir, Tinna Björk; Nørgaard, Kirsten; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2016-01-01

Background: Bolus calculators help patients with type 1 diabetes to mitigate the effect of meals on their blood glucose by administering a large amount of insulin at mealtime. Intraindividual changes in patients physiology and nonlinearity in insulin-glucose dynamics pose a challenge to the accuracy of such calculators. Method: We propose a method based on a continuous-discrete unscented Kalman filter to continuously track the postprandial glucose dynamics and the insulin sensitivity. We augment the Medtronic Virtual Patient (MVP) model to simulate noise-corrupted data from a continuous glucose monitor (CGM). The basal rate is determined by calculating the steady state of the model and is adjusted once a day before breakfast. The bolus size is determined by optimizing the postprandial glucose values based on an estimate of the insulin sensitivity and states, as well as the announced meal size. Following meal announcements, the meal compartment and the meal time constant are estimated, otherwise insulin sensitivity is estimated. Results: We compare the performance of a conventional linear bolus calculator with the proposed bolus calculator. The proposed basal-bolus calculator significantly improves the time spent in glucose target (P < .01) compared to the conventional bolus calculator. Conclusion: An adaptive nonlinear basal-bolus calculator can efficiently compensate for physiological changes. Further clinical studies will be needed to validate the results. PMID:27613658

Determination of Cost-Effectiveness Threshold for Health Care Interventions in Malaysia.

PubMed

Lim, Yen Wei; Shafie, Asrul Akmal; Chua, Gin Nie; Ahmad Hassali, Mohammed Azmi

2017-09-01

One major challenge in prioritizing health care using cost-effectiveness (CE) information is when alternatives are more expensive but more effective than existing technology. In such a situation, an external criterion in the form of a CE threshold that reflects the willingness to pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life-year is necessary. To determine a CE threshold for health care interventions in Malaysia. A cross-sectional, contingent valuation study was conducted using a stratified multistage cluster random sampling technique in four states in Malaysia. One thousand thirteen respondents were interviewed in person for their socioeconomic background, quality of life, and WTP for a hypothetical scenario. The CE thresholds established using the nonparametric Turnbull method ranged from MYR12,810 to MYR22,840 (~US $4,000-US $7,000), whereas those estimated with the parametric interval regression model were between MYR19,929 and MYR28,470 (~US $6,200-US $8,900). Key factors that affected the CE thresholds were education level, estimated monthly household income, and the description of health state scenarios. These findings suggest that there is no single WTP value for a quality-adjusted life-year. The CE threshold estimated for Malaysia was found to be lower than the threshold value recommended by the World Health Organization. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The economic burden of skin disease in the United States.

PubMed

Dehkharghani, Seena; Bible, Jason; Chen, John G; Feldman, Steven R; Fleischer, Alan B

2003-04-01

Skin diseases and their complications are a significant burden on the nation, both in terms of acute and chronic morbidities and their related expenditures for care. Because accurately calculating the cost of skin disease has proven difficult in the past, we present here multiple comparative techniques allowing a more expanded approach to estimating the overall economic burden. Our aims were to (1) determine the economic burden of primary diseases falling within the realm of skin disease, as defined by modern clinical disease classification schemes and (2) identify the specific contribution of each component of costs to the overall expense. Costs were taken as the sum of several factors, divided into direct and indirect health care costs. The direct costs included inpatient hospital costs, ambulatory visit costs (further divided into physician's office visits, outpatient department visits, and emergency department visits), prescription drug costs, and self-care/over-the-counter drug costs. Indirect costs were calculated as the outlay of days of work lost because of skin diseases. The economic burden of skin disease in the United States is large, estimated at approximately $35.9 billion for 1997, including $19.8 billion (54%) in ambulatory care costs; $7.2 billion (20.2%) in hospital inpatient charges; $3.0 billion (8.2%) in prescription drug costs; $4.3 billion (11.7%) in over-the-counter preparations; and $1.6 billion (6.0%) in indirect costs attributable to lost workdays. Our determination of the economic burden of skin care in the United States surpasses past estimates several-fold, and the model presented for calculating cost of illness allows for tracking changes in national expenses for skin care in future studies. The amount of estimated resources devoted to skin disease management is far more than required to treat conditions such as urinary incontinence ($16 billion) and hypertension ($23 billion), but far less than required to treat musculoskeletal conditions ($193 billion).

A Self-Tuning Kalman Filter for Autonomous Spacecraft Navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truong, Son H.

1998-01-01

Most navigation systems currently operated by NASA are ground-based, and require extensive support to produce accurate results. Recently developed systems that use Kalman Filter and Global Positioning System (GPS) data for orbit determination greatly reduce dependency on ground support, and have potential to provide significant economies for NASA spacecraft navigation. Current techniques of Kalman filtering, however, still rely on manual tuning from analysts, and cannot help in optimizing autonomy without compromising accuracy and performance. This paper presents an approach to produce a high accuracy autonomous navigation system fully integrated with the flight system. The resulting system performs real-time state estimation by using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) implemented with high-fidelity state dynamics model, as does the GPS Enhanced Orbit Determination Experiment (GEODE) system developed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Augmented to the EKF is a sophisticated neural-fuzzy system, which combines the explicit knowledge representation of fuzzy logic with the learning power of neural networks. The fuzzy-neural system performs most of the self-tuning capability and helps the navigation system recover from estimation errors. The core requirement is a method of state estimation that handles uncertainties robustly, capable of identifying estimation problems, flexible enough to make decisions and adjustments to recover from these problems, and compact enough to run on flight hardware. The resulting system can be extended to support geosynchronous spacecraft and high-eccentricity orbits. Mathematical methodology, systems and operations concepts, and implementation of a system prototype are presented in this paper. Results from the use of the prototype to evaluate optimal control algorithms implemented are discussed. Test data and major control issues (e.g., how to define specific roles for fuzzy logic to support the self-learning capability) are also discussed. In addition, architecture of a complete end-to-end candidate flight system that provides navigation with highly autonomous control using data from GPS is presented.

A comparison of critical care research funding and the financial burden of critical illness in the United States.

PubMed

Coopersmith, Craig M; Wunsch, Hannah; Fink, Mitchell P; Linde-Zwirble, Walter T; Olsen, Keith M; Sommers, Marilyn S; Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Tchorz, Kathryn M; Angus, Derek C; Deutschman, Clifford S

2012-04-01

To estimate federal dollars spent on critical care research, the cost of providing critical care, and to determine whether the percentage of federal research dollars spent on critical care research is commensurate with the financial burden of critical care. The National Institutes of Health Computer Retrieval of Information on Scientific Projects database was queried to identify funded grants whose title or abstract contained a key word potentially related to critical care. Each grant identified was analyzed by two reviewers (three if the analysis was discordant) to subjectively determine whether it was definitely, possibly, or definitely not related to critical care. Hospital and total costs of critical care were estimated from the Premier Database, state discharge data, and Medicare data. To estimate healthcare expenditures associated with caring for critically ill patients, total costs were calculated as the combination of hospitalization costs that included critical illness as well as additional costs in the year after hospital discharge. Of 19,257 grants funded by the National Institutes of Health, 332 (1.7%) were definitely related to critical care and a maximum of 1212 (6.3%) grants were possibly related to critical care. Between 17.4% and 39.0% of total hospital costs were spent on critical care, and a total of between $121 and $263 billion was estimated to be spent on patients who required intensive care. This represents 5.2% to 11.2%, respectively, of total U.S. healthcare spending. The proportion of research dollars spent on critical care is lower than the percentage of healthcare expenditures related to critical illness.

Factors influencing territorial occupancy and reproductive success in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population.

PubMed

León-Ortega, Mario; Jiménez-Franco, María V; Martínez, José E; Calvo, José F

2017-01-01

Modelling territorial occupancy and reproductive success is a key issue for better understanding the population dynamics of territorial species. This study aimed to investigate these ecological processes in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population in south-eastern Spain during a seven-year period. A multi-season, multi-state modelling approach was followed to estimate the probabilities of occupancy and reproductive success in relation to previous state, time and habitat covariates, and accounting for imperfect detection. The best estimated models showed past breeding success in the territories to be the most important factor determining a high probability of reoccupation and reproductive success in the following year. In addition, alternative occupancy models suggested the positive influence of crops on the probability of territory occupation. By contrast, the best reproductive model revealed strong interannual variations in the rates of breeding success, which may be related to changes in the abundance of the European Rabbit, the main prey of the Eurasian Eagle-owl. Our models also estimated the probabilities of detecting the presence of owls in a given territory and the probability of detecting evidence of successful reproduction. Estimated detection probabilities were high throughout the breeding season, decreasing in time for unsuccessful breeders but increasing for successful breeders. The probability of detecting reproductive success increased with time, being close to one in the last survey. These results suggest that reproduction failure in the early stages of the breeding season is a determinant factor in the probability of detecting occupancy and reproductive success.

Factors influencing territorial occupancy and reproductive success in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population

PubMed Central

León-Ortega, Mario; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Martínez, José E.

2017-01-01

Modelling territorial occupancy and reproductive success is a key issue for better understanding the population dynamics of territorial species. This study aimed to investigate these ecological processes in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population in south-eastern Spain during a seven-year period. A multi-season, multi-state modelling approach was followed to estimate the probabilities of occupancy and reproductive success in relation to previous state, time and habitat covariates, and accounting for imperfect detection. The best estimated models showed past breeding success in the territories to be the most important factor determining a high probability of reoccupation and reproductive success in the following year. In addition, alternative occupancy models suggested the positive influence of crops on the probability of territory occupation. By contrast, the best reproductive model revealed strong interannual variations in the rates of breeding success, which may be related to changes in the abundance of the European Rabbit, the main prey of the Eurasian Eagle-owl. Our models also estimated the probabilities of detecting the presence of owls in a given territory and the probability of detecting evidence of successful reproduction. Estimated detection probabilities were high throughout the breeding season, decreasing in time for unsuccessful breeders but increasing for successful breeders. The probability of detecting reproductive success increased with time, being close to one in the last survey. These results suggest that reproduction failure in the early stages of the breeding season is a determinant factor in the probability of detecting occupancy and reproductive success. PMID:28399175

Estimates of evapotranspiration in alkaline scrub and meadow communities of Owens Valley, California, using the Bowen-ratio, eddy-correlation, and Penman-combination methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duell, L. F. W.

1988-01-01

In Owens Valley, evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the largest components of outflow in the hydrologic budget and the least understood. ET estimates for December 1983 through October 1985 were made for seven representative locations selected on the basis of geohydrology and the characteristics of phreatophytic alkaline scrub and meadow communities. The Bowen-ratio, eddy-correlation, and Penman-combination methods were used to estimate ET. The results of the analyses appear satisfactory when compared to other estimates of ET. Results by the eddy-correlation method are for a direct and a residual latent-heat flux that is based on sensible-heat flux and energy budget measurements. Penman-combination potential ET estimates were determined to be unusable because they overestimated actual ET. Modification in the psychrometer constant of this method to account for differences between heat-diffusion resistance and vapor-diffusion resistance permitted actual ET to be estimated. The methods may be used for studies in similar semiarid and arid rangeland areas in the Western United States. Meteorological data for three field sites are included in the appendix. Simple linear regression analysis indicates that ET estimates are correlated to air temperature, vapor-density deficit, and net radiation. Estimates of annual ET range from 300 mm at a low-density scrub site to 1,100 mm at a high-density meadow site. The monthly percentage of annual ET was determined to be similar for all sites studied. (Author 's abstract)

Event-Based $H_\\infty $ State Estimation for Time-Varying Stochastic Dynamical Networks With State- and Disturbance-Dependent Noises.

PubMed

Sheng, Li; Wang, Zidong; Zou, Lei; Alsaadi, Fuad E

2017-10-01

In this paper, the event-based finite-horizon H ∞ state estimation problem is investigated for a class of discrete time-varying stochastic dynamical networks with state- and disturbance-dependent noises [also called (x,v) -dependent noises]. An event-triggered scheme is proposed to decrease the frequency of the data transmission between the sensors and the estimator, where the signal is transmitted only when certain conditions are satisfied. The purpose of the problem addressed is to design a time-varying state estimator in order to estimate the network states through available output measurements. By employing the completing-the-square technique and the stochastic analysis approach, sufficient conditions are established to ensure that the error dynamics of the state estimation satisfies a prescribed H ∞ performance constraint over a finite horizon. The desired estimator parameters can be designed via solving coupled backward recursive Riccati difference equations. Finally, a numerical example is exploited to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed state estimation scheme.

Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: A Bayesian experimental design approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongqiao; Lin, Guang; Li, Jinglai

2016-05-01

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify the probability of undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples.

Possibilities of new materials surface sensibility express determination based on ZnSe-CdS system by pH isoelectric state measurements of the surface state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirovskaya, I. A.; Mironova, E. V.; Ushakov, O. V.; Nor, P. E.; Yureva, A. V.; Matyash, Yu I.

2018-01-01

A method for determining the hydrogen index of the surfaces isoelectric state (pHiso) at various gases pressures -possible components of the surrounding and technological media has been developed. With its use, changes in pH of binary and more complex semiconductors-components of the new system-ZnSe-CdS under the influence of nitrogen dioxide-have been found. The limiting sensitivity of surfaces - minimum PNO2, causing a change in pH has been estimated. The most active components of ZnSe-CdS system, recommended as materials for measuring cells of NO2, have been revealed. The relationship between the changing patterns with the composition of surface (acid-base) and bulk (in particular, theoretical calculated crystal density) properties has been established, allowing to find the most effective materials for sensor technology and for semiconductor analysis.

Estimating Fault Friction From Seismic Signals in the Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand; Hulbert, Claudia; Bolton, David C.; Ren, Christopher X.; Riviere, Jacques; Marone, Chris; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.

2018-02-01

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. These results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

Distributed State Estimation Using a Modified Partitioned Moving Horizon Strategy for Power Systems.

PubMed

Chen, Tengpeng; Foo, Yi Shyh Eddy; Ling, K V; Chen, Xuebing

2017-10-11

In this paper, a distributed state estimation method based on moving horizon estimation (MHE) is proposed for the large-scale power system state estimation. The proposed method partitions the power systems into several local areas with non-overlapping states. Unlike the centralized approach where all measurements are sent to a processing center, the proposed method distributes the state estimation task to the local processing centers where local measurements are collected. Inspired by the partitioned moving horizon estimation (PMHE) algorithm, each local area solves a smaller optimization problem to estimate its own local states by using local measurements and estimated results from its neighboring areas. In contrast with PMHE, the error from the process model is ignored in our method. The proposed modified PMHE (mPMHE) approach can also take constraints on states into account during the optimization process such that the influence of the outliers can be further mitigated. Simulation results on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems verify that our method achieves comparable state estimation accuracy but with a significant reduction in the overall computation load.

Sickle cell disease incidence among newborns in New York State by maternal race/ethnicity and nativity.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Kennedy, Joseph; Caggana, Michele; Zimmerman, Regina; Thomas, Sanil; Berninger, John; Harris, Katharine; Green, Nancy S; Oyeku, Suzette; Hulihan, Mary; Grant, Althea M; Grosse, Scott D

2013-03-01

Sickle cell disease is estimated to occur in 1:300-400 African-American births, with higher rates among immigrants from Africa and the Caribbean, and is less common among Hispanic births. This study determined sickle cell disease incidence among New York State newborns stratified by maternal race/ethnicity and nativity. Newborns with confirmed sickle cell disease born to New York State residents were identified by the New York State newborn screening program for the years 2000-2008 and matched to birth records to obtain birth and maternal information. Annual incidence rates were computed and bivariate analyses were conducted to examine associations with maternal race/ethnicity and nativity. From 2000 to 2008, 1,911 New York State newborns were diagnosed with sickle cell disease and matched to the birth certificate files. One in every 1,146 live births was diagnosed with sickle cell disease. Newborns of non-Hispanic black mothers accounted for 86% of sickle cell disease cases whereas newborns of Hispanic mothers accounted for 12% of cases. The estimated incidence was 1:230 live births for non-Hispanic black mothers, 1:2,320 births for Hispanic mothers, and 1:41,647 births for non-Hispanic white mothers. Newborns of foreign-born non-Hispanic black mothers had a twofold higher incidence of sickle cell disease than those born to US-born non-Hispanic black mothers (P < 0.001). This study provides the first US estimates of sickle cell disease incidence by maternal nativity. Women born outside the United States account for the majority of children with sickle cell disease born in New York State. Such findings identify at-risk populations and inform outreach activities that promote ongoing, high-quality medical management to affected children.

Procedures for estimation of the livestock ecological footprint of US drylands

Treesearch

Robert A. Washington-Allen; John E. Mitchell

2008-01-01

The ecological condition and trend of the United States' 3,902,000 of Drylands and the extent to which human management actions contribute to degradation are unknown at the national spatial scale. (Washington-Allen et al. 2006). Our research seeks to develop procedures for determining the impact or ecological footprint of livestock grazing on the productive...

Operations Research techniques in the management of large-scale reforestation programs

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; D.E. Teeguarden

1978-01-01

A reforestation planning system for the Douglas-fir region of the Western United States is described. Part of the system is a simulation model to predict plantation growth and to determine economic thinning regimes and rotation ages as a function of site characteristics, initial density, reforestation costs, and management constraints. A second model estimates the...

THE STATE OF AUDIOVISUAL TECHNOLOGY--1961-1966, MONOGRAPH NO. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

GODFREY, ELEANOR P.

THE USE OF AUDIOVISUAL TECHNOLOGY OVER A SIX YEAR PERIOD WAS STUDIED. FROM A BASE OF 2,927 SCHOOL DISTRICTS, 238 DISTRICTS WERE STUDIED TO DETERMINE THE RESOURCES AVAILABLE, THE EXTENT OF USE OF THESE RESOURCES, FACTORS WHICH ENCOURAGE OR INHIBIT USE, AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE. ESTIMATES OF AMOUNTS OF ELEVEN ITEMS OF EQUIPMENT AND FIVE…

Rate of woody residue incorporation into Northern Rocky Mountain forest soils

Treesearch

A. E. Harvey; M. J. Larsen; M. F. Jurgensen

1981-01-01

The important properties contributed to forest soils by decayed wood in the Northern Rocky Mountains make it desirable to determine the time required to reconstitute such materials in depleted soils. The ratio of fiber production potential (growth) to total quantity of wood in a steady state ecosystem provides estimates varying from approximately 100 to 300 years,...

Delay Discounting in Lewis and Fischer 344 Rats: Steady-State and Rapid-Determination Adjusting-Amount Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Jeffrey S.; Pinkston, Jonathan W.; Brewer, Adam T.; Francisco, Monica T.; Madden, Gregory J.

2012-01-01

Lewis rats have been shown to make more impulsive choices than Fischer 344 rats in discrete trial choice procedures that arrange fixed (i.e., nontitrating) reinforcement parameters. However, nontitrating procedures yield only gross estimates of preference, as choice measures in animal subjects are rarely graded at the level of the individual…

Beyond "more is better": ecological footprint accounting for tourism and consumption in Val di Merse, Italy.

Treesearch

T.M. Patterson; V. Niccolucci; S. Bastianoni

2007-01-01

Habits of conservation, consumption, and recycling are important determinants of economic throughput. Provincial governments interested in tourism's role in a diverse, steady-state economy may wish to orient tourism development around the tourist segments with less intensive consumption habits. We estimate consumption of energy and materials by tourists...

How to estimate forest carbon for large areas from inventory data

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath; Peter B. Woodbury

2004-01-01

Carbon sequestration through forest growth provides a low-cost approach for meeting state and national goals to reduce net accumulations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Total forest ecosystem carbon stocks include "pools" in live trees, standing dead trees, understory vegetation, down dead wood, forest floor, and soil. Determining the level of carbon stocks in...

Tax-Credit Scholarships in Nebraska: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottlob, Brian

2010-01-01

This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Nebraska to give tax credits for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of tax-credit scholarships on the state and on local school districts. The author estimates the impact that…

Developing contemporary and historical live tree biomass estimates for old pine-hardwood stands of the Midsouth, USA

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg

2012-01-01

Calculating stand biomass potential is an increasingly important aspect of silviculture, particularly when attempting to restore forest ecosystems or determining additionality in sequestered carbon. However, the lumbering of the original forests of the Midsouth region of the United States of America, coupled with the accelerating conversion of unmanaged natural-origin...

Sporotrichosis-Associated Hospitalizations, United States, 2000-2013.

PubMed

Gold, Jeremy A W; Derado, Gordana; Mody, Rajal K; Benedict, Kaitlin

2016-10-01

To determine frequency and risk for sporotrichosis-associated hospitalizations, we analyzed the US 2000-2013 National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample. An estimated 1,471 hospitalizations occurred (average annual rate 0.35/1 million persons). Hospitalizations were associated with HIV/AIDS, immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Although rare, severe sporotrichosis should be considered for at-risk patients.

Primary Productivity Estimates in Lower Derby and Ladora Lakes

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-01-01

vertebrate population collected were the amphibians (Necturus maculosus A sizeable population of these water dogs exists in To determine the ability...710 7.5 ppmn. - founld *n he in an advancred state of eutrophic aton In’m bottom was .sxinmov 4 90 .3porn. 82 0 8.0 porn - 710 S. orn. deep. with more

State estimation of stochastic non-linear hybrid dynamic system using an interacting multiple model algorithm.

PubMed

Elenchezhiyan, M; Prakash, J

2015-09-01

In this work, state estimation schemes for non-linear hybrid dynamic systems subjected to stochastic state disturbances and random errors in measurements using interacting multiple-model (IMM) algorithms are formulated. In order to compute both discrete modes and continuous state estimates of a hybrid dynamic system either an IMM extended Kalman filter (IMM-EKF) or an IMM based derivative-free Kalman filters is proposed in this study. The efficacy of the proposed IMM based state estimation schemes is demonstrated by conducting Monte-Carlo simulation studies on the two-tank hybrid system and switched non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor system. Extensive simulation studies reveal that the proposed IMM based state estimation schemes are able to generate fairly accurate continuous state estimates and discrete modes. In the presence and absence of sensor bias, the simulation studies reveal that the proposed IMM unscented Kalman filter (IMM-UKF) based simultaneous state and parameter estimation scheme outperforms multiple-model UKF (MM-UKF) based simultaneous state and parameter estimation scheme. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SiGN-SSM: open source parallel software for estimating gene networks with state space models.

PubMed

Tamada, Yoshinori; Yamaguchi, Rui; Imoto, Seiya; Hirose, Osamu; Yoshida, Ryo; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru

2011-04-15

SiGN-SSM is an open-source gene network estimation software able to run in parallel on PCs and massively parallel supercomputers. The software estimates a state space model (SSM), that is a statistical dynamic model suitable for analyzing short time and/or replicated time series gene expression profiles. SiGN-SSM implements a novel parameter constraint effective to stabilize the estimated models. Also, by using a supercomputer, it is able to determine the gene network structure by a statistical permutation test in a practical time. SiGN-SSM is applicable not only to analyzing temporal regulatory dependencies between genes, but also to extracting the differentially regulated genes from time series expression profiles. SiGN-SSM is distributed under GNU Affero General Public Licence (GNU AGPL) version 3 and can be downloaded at http://sign.hgc.jp/signssm/. The pre-compiled binaries for some architectures are available in addition to the source code. The pre-installed binaries are also available on the Human Genome Center supercomputer system. The online manual and the supplementary information of SiGN-SSM is available on our web site. tamada@ims.u-tokyo.ac.jp.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummans, J.E.; Collings, Michael R.; Nasser, Edmund George

1975-01-01

Relations are provided to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on Washington streams. Annual-peak-flow data from stream gaging stations on unregulated streams having 1 years or more of record were used to determine a log-Pearson Type III frequency curve for each station. Flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, i0, 25, 50, and 10years were then related to physical and climatic indices of the drainage basins by multiple-regression analysis using the Biomedical Computer Program BMDO2R. These regression relations are useful for estimating flood magnitudes of the specified recurrence intervals at ungaged or short-record sites. Separate sets of regression equations were defined for western and eastern parts of the State, and the State was further subdivided into 12 regions in which the annual floods exhibit similar flood characteristics. Peak flows are related most significantly in western Washington to drainage-area size and mean annual precipitation. In eastern Washington-they are related most significantly to drainage-area size, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of forest cover. Standard errors of estimate of the estimating relations range from 25 to 129 percent, and the smallest errors are generally associated with the more humid regions.

Estimation of critical behavior from the density of states in classical statistical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakis, A.; Peratzakis, A.; Fytas, N. G.

2004-12-01

We present a simple and efficient approximation scheme which greatly facilitates the extension of Wang-Landau sampling (or similar techniques) in large systems for the estimation of critical behavior. The method, presented in an algorithmic approach, is based on a very simple idea, familiar in statistical mechanics from the notion of thermodynamic equivalence of ensembles and the central limit theorem. It is illustrated that we can predict with high accuracy the critical part of the energy space and by using this restricted part we can extend our simulations to larger systems and improve the accuracy of critical parameters. It is proposed that the extensions of the finite-size critical part of the energy space, determining the specific heat, satisfy a scaling law involving the thermal critical exponent. The method is applied successfully for the estimation of the scaling behavior of specific heat of both square and simple cubic Ising lattices. The proposed scaling law is verified by estimating the thermal critical exponent from the finite-size behavior of the critical part of the energy space. The density of states of the zero-field Ising model on these lattices is obtained via a multirange Wang-Landau sampling.

Quantum algorithms for Gibbs sampling and hitting-time estimation

DOE PAGES

Chowdhury, Anirban Narayan; Somma, Rolando D.

2017-02-01

In this paper, we present quantum algorithms for solving two problems regarding stochastic processes. The first algorithm prepares the thermal Gibbs state of a quantum system and runs in time almost linear in √Nβ/Ζ and polynomial in log(1/ϵ), where N is the Hilbert space dimension, β is the inverse temperature, Ζ is the partition function, and ϵ is the desired precision of the output state. Our quantum algorithm exponentially improves the dependence on 1/ϵ and quadratically improves the dependence on β of known quantum algorithms for this problem. The second algorithm estimates the hitting time of a Markov chain. Formore » a sparse stochastic matrix Ρ, it runs in time almost linear in 1/(ϵΔ 3/2), where ϵ is the absolute precision in the estimation and Δ is a parameter determined by Ρ, and whose inverse is an upper bound of the hitting time. Our quantum algorithm quadratically improves the dependence on 1/ϵ and 1/Δ of the analog classical algorithm for hitting-time estimation. Finally, both algorithms use tools recently developed in the context of Hamiltonian simulation, spectral gap amplification, and solving linear systems of equations.« less

Streamflow forecasting and data assimilation: bias in precipitation, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCreight, J. L.; Gochis, D. J.; Hoar, T.; Dugger, A. L.; Yu, W.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty in precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and model groundwater fluxes are first-order sources of error in streamflow forecasting. While near-surface estimates of soil moisture are now available from satellite, very few soil moisture observations below 5 cm depth or groundwater discharge estimates are available for operational forecasting. Radar precipitation estimates are subject to large biases, particularly during extreme events (e.g. Steiner et al., 2010) and their correction is not typically available in real-time. Streamflow data, however, are readily available in near-real-time and can be assimilated operationally to help constrain uncertainty in these uncertain states and improve streamflow forecasts. We examine the ability of streamflow observations to diagnose bias in the three most uncertain variables: precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes. We investigate strategies for their subsequent bias correction. These include spinup and calibration strategies with and without the use of data assimilation and the determination of the proper spinup timescales. Global and spatially distributed multipliers on the uncertain states included in the assimilation state vector (e.g. Seo et al., 2003) will also be evaluated. We examine real cases and observing system simulation experiments for both normal and extreme rainfall events. One of our test cases considers the Colorado Front Range flood of September 2013 where the range of disagreement amongst five precipitation estimates spanned a factor of five with only one exhibiting appreciable positive bias (Gochis et al, submitted). Our experiments are conducted using the WRF-Hydro model with the NoahMP land surface component and the data assimilation research testbed (DART). A variety of ensemble data assimilation approaches (filters) are considered. ReferencesGochis, DJ, et al. "The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013" BAMS (Submitted 4-7-14). Seo, DJ, V Koren, and N Cajina. "Real-time variational assimilation of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data into operational hydrologic forecasting." J Hydromet (2003). Steiner, Matthias, JA Smith, SJ Burges, CV Alonso, and RW Darden. "Effect of bias adjustment and rain gauge data quality control on radar rainfall estimation." WRR (1999).

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Barreca, Alan I.

2014-01-01

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects. PMID:25328254

Solid-State Thermionic Power Generators: An Analytical Analysis in the Nonlinear Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebarjadi, M.

2017-07-01

Solid-state thermionic power generators are an alternative to thermoelectric modules. In this paper, we develop an analytical model to investigate the performance of these generators in the nonlinear regime. We identify dimensionless parameters determining their performance and provide measures to estimate an acceptable range of thermal and electrical resistances of thermionic generators. We find the relation between the optimum load resistance and the internal resistance and suggest guidelines for the design of thermionic power generators. Finally, we show that in the nonlinear regime, thermionic power generators can have efficiency values higher than the state-of-the-art thermoelectric modules.

Selection of the Australian indicator region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, C. R. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Each Australian state was examined for the availability of LANDSAT data, area, yield, and production characteristics, statistics, crop calendars, and other ancillary data. Agrophysical conditions that could influence labeling and classification accuracies were identified in connection with the highest producing states as determined from available Australian crop statistics. Based primarily on these production statistics, Western Australia and New South Wales were selected as the wheat indicator region for Australia. The general characteristics of wheat in the indicator region, with potential problems anticipated for proportion estimation are considered. The varieties of wheat, the diseases and pests common to New South Wales, and the wheat growing regions of both states are examined.

Income inequality, socioeconomic deprivation and depressive symptoms among older adults in Mexico.

PubMed

Fernández-Niño, Julián Alfredo; Manrique-Espinoza, Betty Soledad; Bojorquez-Chapela, Ietza; Salinas-Rodríguez, Aarón

2014-01-01

Depression is the second most common mental disorder in older adults (OA) worldwide. The ways in which depression is influenced by the social determinants of health - specifically, by socioeconomic deprivation, income inequality and social capital - have been analyzed with only partially conclusive results thus far. The objective of our study was to estimate the association of income inequality and socioeconomic deprivation at the locality, municipal and state levels with the prevalence of depressive symptoms among OA in Mexico. Cross-sectional study based on a nationally representative sample of 8,874 OA aged 60 and over. We applied the brief seven-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) to determine the presence of depressive symptoms. Additionally, to select the principal context variables, we used the Deprivation Index of the National Population Council of Mexico at the locality, municipal and state levels, and the Gini Index at the municipal and state levels. Finally, we estimated the association of income inequality and socioeconomic deprivation with the presence of depressive symptoms using a multilevel logistic regression model. Socioeconomic deprivation at the locality (OR = 1.28; p<0.10) and municipal levels (OR = 1.16; p<0.01) correlated significantly with the presence of depressive symptoms, while income inequality did not. The results of our study confirm that the social determinants of health are relevant to the mental health of OA. Further research is required, however, to identify which are the specific socioeconomic deprivation components at the locality and municipal levels that correlate with depression in this population group.

Benefits Derived From Laser Ranging Measurements for Orbit Determination of the GPS Satellite Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, Bryan W.

2007-01-01

While navigation systems for the determination of the orbit of the Global Position System (GPS) have proven to be very effective, the current research is examining methods to lower the error in the GPS satellite ephemerides below their current level. Two GPS satellites that are currently in orbit carry retro-reflectors onboard. One notion to reduce the error in the satellite ephemerides is to utilize the retro-reflectors via laser ranging measurements taken from multiple Earth ground stations. Analysis has been performed to determine the level of reduction in the semi-major axis covariance of the GPS satellites, when laser ranging measurements are supplemented to the radiometric station keeping, which the satellites undergo. Six ground tracking systems are studied to estimate the performance of the satellite. The first system is the baseline current system approach which provides pseudo-range and integrated Doppler measurements from six ground stations. The remaining five ground tracking systems utilize all measurements from the current system and laser ranging measurements from the additional ground stations utilized within those systems. Station locations for the additional ground sites were taken from a listing of laser ranging ground stations from the International Laser Ranging Service. Results show reductions in state covariance estimates when utilizing laser ranging measurements to solve for the satellite s position component of the state vector. Results also show dependency on the number of ground stations providing laser ranging measurements, orientation of the satellite to the ground stations, and the initial covariance of the satellite's state vector.

Quantum State Tomography via Linear Regression Estimation

PubMed Central

Qi, Bo; Hou, Zhibo; Li, Li; Dong, Daoyi; Xiang, Guoyong; Guo, Guangcan

2013-01-01

A simple yet efficient state reconstruction algorithm of linear regression estimation (LRE) is presented for quantum state tomography. In this method, quantum state reconstruction is converted into a parameter estimation problem of a linear regression model and the least-squares method is employed to estimate the unknown parameters. An asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) upper bound for all possible states to be estimated is given analytically, which depends explicitly upon the involved measurement bases. This analytical MSE upper bound can guide one to choose optimal measurement sets. The computational complexity of LRE is O(d4) where d is the dimension of the quantum state. Numerical examples show that LRE is much faster than maximum-likelihood estimation for quantum state tomography. PMID:24336519

Comparison of flavonoid intake assessment methods.

PubMed

Ivey, Kerry L; Croft, Kevin; Prince, Richard L; Hodgson, Jonathan M

2016-09-14

Flavonoids are a diverse group of polyphenolic compounds found in high concentrations in many plant foods and beverages. High flavonoid intake has been associated with reduced risk of chronic disease. To date, population based studies have used the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) food content database to determine habitual flavonoid intake. More recently, a new flavonoid food content database, Phenol-Explorer (PE), has been developed. However, the level of agreement between the two databases is yet to be explored. To compare the methods used to create each database, and to explore the level of agreement between the flavonoid intake estimates derived from USDA and PE data. The study population included 1063 randomly selected women aged over 75 years. Two separate intake estimates were determined using food composition data from the USDA and the PE databases. There were many similarities in methods used to create each database; however, there are several methodological differences that manifest themselves in differences in flavonoid intake estimates between the 2 databases. Despite differences in net estimates, there was a strong level of agreement between total-flavonoid, flavanol, flavanone and anthocyanidin intake estimates derived from each database. Intake estimates for flavanol monomers showed greater agreement than flavanol polymers. The level of agreement between the two databases was the weakest for the flavonol and flavone intake estimates. In this population, the application of USDA and PE source data yielded highly correlated intake estimates for total-flavonoids, flavanols, flavanones and anthocyanidins. For these sub-classes, the USDA and PE databases may be used interchangeably in epidemiological investigations. There was poorer correlation between intake estimates for flavonols and flavones due to differences in USDA and PE methodologies. Individual flavonoid compound groups that comprise flavonoid sub-classes had varying levels of agreement. As such, when determining the appropriate database to calculate flavonoid intake variables, it is important to consider methodologies underpinning database creation and which foods are important contributors to dietary intake in the population of interest.

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lisano, Michael E.

2007-01-01

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Race/Ethnicity, Socioeconomic Status, Residential Segregation, and Spatial Variation in Noise Exposure in the Contiguous United States.

PubMed

Casey, Joan A; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Mennitt, Daniel J; Fristrup, Kurt; Ogburn, Elizabeth L; James, Peter

2017-07-25

Prior research has reported disparities in environmental exposures in the United States, but, to our knowledge, no nationwide studies have assessed inequality in noise pollution. We aimed to a ) assess racial/ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities in noise pollution in the contiguous United States; and b ) consider the modifying role of metropolitan level racial residential segregation. We used a geospatial sound model to estimate census block group–level median (L 50 ) nighttime and daytime noise exposure and 90th percentile (L 10 ) daytime noise exposure. Block group variables from the 2006–2010 American Community Survey (ACS) included race/ethnicity, education, income, poverty, unemployment, homeownership, and linguistic isolation. We estimated associations using polynomial terms in spatial error models adjusted for total population and population density. We also evaluated the relationship between race/ethnicity and noise, stratified by levels of metropolitan area racial residential segregation, classified using a multigroup dissimilarity index. Generally, estimated nighttime and daytime noise levels were higher for census block groups with higher proportions of nonwhite and lower-socioeconomic status (SES) residents. For example, estimated nighttime noise levels in urban block groups with 75% vs. 0% black residents were 46.3 A-weighted decibels (dBA) [interquartile range (IQR): 44.3–47.8 dBA] and 42.3 dBA (IQR: 40.4–45.5 dBA), respectively. In urban block groups with 50% vs. 0% of residents living below poverty, estimated nighttime noise levels were 46.9 dBA (IQR: 44.7–48.5 dBA) and 44.0 dBA (IQR: 42.2–45.5 dBA), respectively. Block groups with the highest metropolitan area segregation had the highest estimated noise exposures, regardless of racial composition. Results were generally consistent between urban and suburban/rural census block groups, and for daytime and nighttime noise and robust to different spatial weight and neighbor definitions. We found evidence of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic differences in model-based estimates of noise exposure throughout the United States. Additional research is needed to determine if differences in noise exposure may contribute to health disparities in the United States. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP898

Race/Ethnicity, Socioeconomic Status, Residential Segregation, and Spatial Variation in Noise Exposure in the Contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Mennitt, Daniel J.; Fristrup, Kurt; Ogburn, Elizabeth L.; James, Peter

2017-01-01

Background: Prior research has reported disparities in environmental exposures in the United States, but, to our knowledge, no nationwide studies have assessed inequality in noise pollution. Objectives: We aimed to a) assess racial/ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities in noise pollution in the contiguous United States; and b) consider the modifying role of metropolitan level racial residential segregation. Methods: We used a geospatial sound model to estimate census block group–level median (L50) nighttime and daytime noise exposure and 90th percentile (L10) daytime noise exposure. Block group variables from the 2006–2010 American Community Survey (ACS) included race/ethnicity, education, income, poverty, unemployment, homeownership, and linguistic isolation. We estimated associations using polynomial terms in spatial error models adjusted for total population and population density. We also evaluated the relationship between race/ethnicity and noise, stratified by levels of metropolitan area racial residential segregation, classified using a multigroup dissimilarity index. Results: Generally, estimated nighttime and daytime noise levels were higher for census block groups with higher proportions of nonwhite and lower-socioeconomic status (SES) residents. For example, estimated nighttime noise levels in urban block groups with 75% vs. 0% black residents were 46.3 A-weighted decibels (dBA) [interquartile range (IQR): 44.3–47.8 dBA] and 42.3 dBA (IQR: 40.4–45.5 dBA), respectively. In urban block groups with 50% vs. 0% of residents living below poverty, estimated nighttime noise levels were 46.9 dBA (IQR: 44.7–48.5 dBA) and 44.0 dBA (IQR: 42.2–45.5 dBA), respectively. Block groups with the highest metropolitan area segregation had the highest estimated noise exposures, regardless of racial composition. Results were generally consistent between urban and suburban/rural census block groups, and for daytime and nighttime noise and robust to different spatial weight and neighbor definitions. Conclusions: We found evidence of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic differences in model-based estimates of noise exposure throughout the United States. Additional research is needed to determine if differences in noise exposure may contribute to health disparities in the United States. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP898 PMID:28749369

Workforce Projections 2010-2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States.

PubMed

Landry, Michel D; Hack, Laurita M; Coulson, Elizabeth; Freburger, Janet; Johnson, Michael P; Katz, Richard; Kerwin, Joanne; Smith, Megan H; Wessman, Henry C Bud; Venskus, Diana G; Sinnott, Patricia L; Goldstein, Marc

2016-01-01

Health human resources continue to emerge as a critical health policy issue across the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the United States into 2020. A traditional stock-and-flow methodology or model was developed and populated with publicly available data to produce estimates of supply and demand for physical therapists by 2020. Supply was determined by adding the estimated number of physical therapists and the approximation of new graduates to the number of physical therapists who immigrated, minus US graduates who never passed the licensure examination, and an estimated attrition rate in any given year. Demand was determined by using projected US population with health care insurance multiplied by a demand ratio in any given year. The difference between projected supply and demand represented a shortage or surplus of physical therapists. Three separate projection models were developed based on best available data in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Based on these projections, demand for physical therapists in the United States outstrips supply under most assumptions. Workforce projection methodology research is based on assumptions using imperfect data; therefore, the results must be interpreted in terms of overall trends rather than as precise actuarial data-generated absolute numbers from specified forecasting. Outcomes of this projection study provide a foundation for discussion and debate regarding the most effective and efficient ways to influence supply-side variables so as to position physical therapists to meet current and future population demand. Attrition rates or permanent exits out of the profession can have important supply-side effects and appear to have an effect on predicting future shortage or surplus of physical therapists. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

Estimation of daily Snow Cover Area combining MODIS and LANDSAT information by using cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Juan Collados Lara, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, David

2016-04-01

The snow availability in Alpine catchments is essential for the economy of these areas. It plays an important role in tourist development but also in the management of the Water Resources Snow is an important water resource in many river basins with mountains in the catchment area. The determination of the snow water equivalent requires the estimation of the evolution of the snow pack (cover area, thickness and snow density) along the time. Although there are complex physical models of the dynamics of the snow pack, sometimes the data available are scarce and a stochastic model like the cellular automata (CA) can be of great practical interest. CA can be used to model the dynamics of growth and wane of the snow pack. The CA is calibrated with historical data. This requires the determination of transition rules that are capable of modeling the evolution of the spatial pattern of snow cover area. Furthermore, CA requires the definition of states and neighborhoods. We have included topographical variables and climatological variables in order to define the state of each pixel. The evolution of snow cover in a pixel depends on its state, the state of the neighboring pixels and the transition rules. The calibration of the CA is done using daily MODIS data, available for the period 24/02/2002 to present with a spatial resolution of 500 m, and the LANDSAT information available with a sixteen-day periodicity from 1984 to the present and with spatial resolution of 30 m. The methodology has been applied to estimation of the snow cover area of Sierra Nevada mountain range in the Southern of Spain to obtain snow cover area daily information with 500 m spatial resolution for the period 1980-2014. Acknowledgments: This research has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank NASA DAAC and LANDSAT project for the data provided for this study.

Factors influencing ground-water recharge in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, B.T.; Healy, R.W.; Taber, P.E.; Perkins, K.; Hitt, K.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2007-01-01

Ground-water recharge estimates for selected locations in the eastern half of the United States were obtained by Darcian and chloride-tracer methods and compared using statistical analyses. Recharge estimates derived from unsaturated-zone (RUZC) and saturated-zone (RSZC) chloride mass balance methods are less variable (interquartile ranges or IQRs are 9.5 and 16.1 cm/yr, respectively) and more strongly correlated with climatic, hydrologic, land use, and sediment variables than Darcian estimates (IQR = 22.8 cm/yr). The unit-gradient Darcian estimates are a nonlinear function of moisture content and also reflect the uncertainty of pedotransfer functions used to estimate hydraulic parameters. Significance level is 0.3. Estimates of RSZC were evaluated using analysis of variance, multiple comparison tests, and an exploratory nonlinear regression (NLR) model. Recharge generally is greater in coastal plain surficial aquifers, fractured crystalline rocks, and carbonate rocks, or in areas with high sand content. Westernmost portions of the study area have low recharge, receive somewhat less precipitation, and contain fine-grained sediment. The NLR model simulates water input to the land surface followed by transport to ground water, depending on factors that either promote or inhibit water infiltration. The model explains a moderate amount of variation in the data set (coefficient of determination = 0.61). Model sensitivity analysis indicates that mean annual runoff, air temperature, and precipitation, and an index of ground-water exfiltration potential most influence estimates of recharge at sampled sites in the region. Soil characteristics and land use have less influence on the recharge estimates, but nonetheless are significant in the NLR model. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating release of carbon from 1990 and 1991 forest fires in Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaisischke, Eric S.; French, Nancy H. F.; Bourgeau-Chavez, Laura L.; Christensen, N. L., Jr.

1995-01-01

An improved method to estimate the amounts of carbon released during fires in the boreal forest zone of Alaska in 1990 and 1991 is described. This method divides the state into 64 distinct physiographic regions and estimates areal extent of five different land covers: two forest types, peat land, tundra, and nonvegetated. The areal extent of each cover type was estimated from a review of topographic maps of each region and observations on the distribution of foreat types within the state. Using previous observations and theoretical models for the two forest types found in interior Alaska, models of biomass accumulation as a function of stand age were developed. Stand age distributions for each region were determined using a statistical distribution based on fire frequency, which was from available long-term historical records. Estimates of the degree of biomass combusted were based on recent field observations as well as research reported in the literature. The location and areal extent of fires in this region for 1990 and 1991 were based on both field observations and analysis of satellite (advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)) data sets. Estimates of average carbon release for the two study years ranged between 2.54 and 3.00 kg/sq m, which are 2.2 to 2.6 times greater than estimates used in other studies of carbon release through biomass burning in boreal forests. Total average annual carbon release for the two years ranged between 0.012 and 0.018 Pg C/yr, with the lower value resulting from the AVHRR estimates of fire location and area.

Use of an OSSE to Evaluate Background Error Covariances Estimated by the 'NMC Method'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Errico, Ronald M.; Prive, Nikki C.; Gu, Wei

2014-01-01

The NMC method has proven utility for prescribing approximate background-error covariances required by variational data assimilation systems. Here, untunedNMCmethod estimates are compared with explicitly determined error covariances produced within an OSSE context by exploiting availability of the true simulated states. Such a comparison provides insights into what kind of rescaling is required to render the NMC method estimates usable. It is shown that rescaling of variances and directional correlation lengths depends greatly on both pressure and latitude. In particular, some scaling coefficients appropriate in the Tropics are the reciprocal of those in the Extratropics. Also, the degree of dynamic balance is grossly overestimated by the NMC method. These results agree with previous examinations of the NMC method which used ensembles as an alternative for estimating background-error statistics.

S. 1383, Children's Protection from Violent Programming Act of 1993; S. 973, Television Report Card Act of 1993; and S. 943, Children's Television Violence Protection Act of 1993. Hearing before the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. United States Senate, One Hundred Third Congress, First Session.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

It is estimated that the typical American child will watch 8,000 murders and 100,000 acts of violence before finishing elementary school. Concern for the impact television violence may have on American society prompted this Senate hearing. As stated by Senator Hollings, the goals of the hearing were the following: (1) to determine the compelling…

Climate and the equilibrium state of land surface hydrology parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

For given climatic rates of precipitation and potential evaporation, the land surface hydrology parameterizations of atmospheric general circulation models will maintain soil-water storage conditions that balance the moisture input and output. The surface relative soil saturation for such climatic conditions serves as a measure of the land surface parameterization state under a given forcing. The equilibrium value of this variable for alternate parameterizations of land surface hydrology are determined as a function of climate and the sensitivity of the surface to shifts and changes in climatic forcing are estimated.

Least-squares analysis of the Mueller matrix.

PubMed

Reimer, Michael; Yevick, David

2006-08-15

In a single-mode fiber excited by light with a fixed polarization state, the output polarizations obtained at two different optical frequencies are related by a Mueller matrix. We examine least-squares procedures for estimating this matrix from repeated measurements of the output Stokes vector for a random set of input polarization states. We then apply these methods to the determination of polarization mode dispersion and polarization-dependent loss in an optical fiber. We find that a relatively simple formalism leads to results that are comparable with those of far more involved techniques.

Higher Accuracy of the Lactate Minimum Test Compared to Established Threshold Concepts to Determine Maximal Lactate Steady State in Running.

PubMed

Wahl, Patrick; Zwingmann, Lukas; Manunzio, Christian; Wolf, Jacob; Bloch, Wilhelm

2018-05-18

This study evaluated the accuracy of the lactate minimum test, in comparison to a graded-exercise test and established threshold concepts (OBLA and mDmax) to determine running speed at maximal lactate steady state. Eighteen subjects performed a lactate minimum test, a graded-exercise test (2.4 m·s -1 start,+0.4 m·s -1 every 5 min) and 2 or more constant-speed tests of 30 min to determine running speed at maximal lactate steady state. The lactate minimum test consisted of an initial lactate priming segment, followed by a short recovery phase. Afterwards, the initial load of the subsequent incremental segment was individually determined and was increased by 0.1 m·s -1 every 120 s. Lactate minimum was determined by the lowest measured value (LM abs ) and by a third-order polynomial (LM pol ). The mean difference to maximal lactate steady state was+0.01±0.14 m·s -1 (LM abs ), 0.04±0.15 m·s -1 (LM pol ), -0.06±0.31 m·s 1 (OBLA) and -0.08±0.21 m·s 1 (mDmax). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between running velocity at maximal lactate steady state and LM abs was highest (ICC=0.964), followed by LM pol (ICC=0.956), mDmax (ICC=0.916) and OBLA (ICC=0.885). Due to the higher accuracy of the lactate minimum test to determine maximal lactate steady state compared to OBLA and mDmax, we suggest the lactate minimum test as a valid and meaningful concept to estimate running velocity at maximal lactate steady state in a single session for moderately up to well-trained athletes. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Use of digital control theory state space formalism for feedback at SLC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Himel, T.; Hendrickson, L.; Rouse, F.

The algorithms used in the database-driven SLC fast-feedback system are based on the state space formalism of digital control theory. These are implemented as a set of matrix equations which use a Kalman filter to estimate a vector of states from a vector of measurements, and then apply a gain matrix to determine the actuator settings from the state vector. The matrices used in the calculation are derived offline using Linear Quadratic Gaussian minimization. For a given noise spectrum, this procedure minimizes the rms of the states (e.g., the position or energy of the beam). The offline program also allowsmore » simulation of the loop's response to arbitrary inputs, and calculates its frequency response. 3 refs., 3 figs.« less

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Ross; Margolis, Hank; Montesano, Paul; Sun, Guoqing; Cook, Bruce; Corp, Larry; Andersen, Hans-Erik; DeJong, Ben; Pellat, Fernando Paz; Fickel, Thaddeus;

The estimation error covariance matrix for the ideal state reconstructor with measurement noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polites, Michael E.

1988-01-01

A general expression is derived for the state estimation error covariance matrix for the Ideal State Reconstructor when the input measurements are corrupted by measurement noise. An example is presented which shows that the more measurements used in estimating the state at a given time, the better the estimator.

Earth science research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Botkin, Daniel B.

1987-01-01

The analysis of ground-truth data from the boreal forest plots in the Superior National Forest, Minnesota, was completed. Development of statistical methods was completed for dimension analysis (equations to estimate the biomass of trees from measurements of diameter and height). The dimension-analysis equations were applied to the data obtained from ground-truth plots, to estimate the biomass. Classification and analyses of remote sensing images of the Superior National Forest were done as a test of the technique to determine forest biomass and ecological state by remote sensing. Data was archived on diskette and tape and transferred to UCSB to be used in subsequent research.

Dynamic modeling and parameter estimation of a radial and loop type distribution system network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jun Qui; Heng Chen; Girgis, A.A.

1993-05-01

This paper presents a new identification approach to three-phase power system modeling and model reduction taking power system network as multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) processes. The model estimate can be obtained in discrete-time input-output form, discrete- or continuous-time state-space variable form, or frequency-domain impedance transfer function matrix form. An algorithm for determining the model structure of this MIMO process is described. The effect of measurement noise on the approach is also discussed. This approach has been applied on a sample system and simulation results are also presented in this paper.

Some photophysical properties of new oligomer obtained from anodic oxidation of 4,4‧-dimethoxychalcone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghomrasni, S.; Aribi, I.; Chemek, M.; Said, A. Haj; Alimi, K.

2018-04-01

Some photopysical properties of a new oligomer obtained from the anodic oxidation of the 4,4‧-dimethoxy-chalcone were investigated using different and complementary techniques. Firstly, TGA analysis and X-Ray diffraction experiments showed that the oligomer is thermally stable up to 500 K and partially organized at the solid state, respectively. Secondly, the optical properties of the oligomer were studied in solution and in the solid state. The optical band gap was estimated to be 3.17 eV in solution state and 2.70 eV in film state. What's more, the fluorescence decay is determined showing a considerably faster in the film state (0.183 ns) than in solution state (1.606 ns), due to the rapid non-radiative decay at inter-chain trap sites.

Analysis of Preferred Directions in Phase Space for Tidal Measurements at Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boone, D.; Scheeres, D. J.

2012-12-01

The NASA Jupiter Europa Orbiter mission requires a circular, near-polar orbit to measure Europa's Love numbers, geophysical coefficients which give insight into whether a liquid ocean exists. This type of orbit about planetary satellites is known to be unstable. The effects of Jupiter's tidal gravity are seen in changes in Europa's gravity field and surface deformation, which are sensed through doppler tracking over time and altimetry measurements respectively. These two measurement types separately determine the h and k Love numbers, a combination of which bounds how thick the ice shell of Europa is and whether liquid water is present. This work shows how the properties of an unstable periodic orbit about Europa generate preferred measurement directions in position and velocity phase space for the orbit determination process. We generate an error covariance over seven days for the orbiter state and science parameters using a periodic orbit and then disperse the orbit initial conditions in a Monte Carlo simulation according to this covariance. The dispersed orbits are shown to have a bias toward longer lifetimes and we discuss this as an effect of the stable and unstable manifolds of the periodic orbit. Using an epoch formulation of a square-root information filter, measurements aligned with the unstable manifold mapped back in time add more information to the orbit determination process than measurements aligned with the stable manifold. This corresponds to a contraction in the uncertainty of the estimate of the desired parameters, including the Love numbers. We demonstrate this mapping mathematically using a representation of the State Transition Matrix involving its eigenvectors and eigenvalues. Then using the properties of left and right eigenvectors, we show how measurements in the orbit determination process are mapped in time leading to a concentration of information at epoch. We present examples of measurements taken on different time schedules to show the effect of preferred phase space directions in the estimation process. Manifold coordinate decomposition is applied to the orbit initial conditions as well as measurement partials in the filter to show the alignment of each with the stable and unstable manifolds of the periodic orbit. The connection between orbit lifetime and regions of increased information density in phase space is made using the properties of these manifolds. Low altitude, near-polar periodic orbits with these characteristics are discussed along with the estimation results for the Love numbers, orbiter state, and orbit lifetime. Different measurement schedules and the resulting estimation performance are presented along with an analysis of information content for single measurements with respect to manifold alignment. These results allow more sensitive estimation of the tidal Love numbers and may allow measurements to be taken less frequently or compensate for corrupted data arcs. Other measurement types will be mapped in the same way using the State Transition matrix and have increased information density at epoch if aligned with the unstable manifold. In the same way, these results are applicable to planetary satellite orbiters about Enceladus or Dione since they share the governing equations of motion and properties of unstable periodic orbits.

Monitoring seasonal state and mapping species in Alaskan taiga using imaging radar as input to CO[sub 2] flux models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Way, J.B.; Rignot, E.; McDonald, K.

1993-06-01

Changes in the seasonal CO[sub 2] flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentrations and associated atmospheric warming. To monitor this potential change, a combination of remote sensing information and ecophysiological models are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to provide some of the input to the ecophysiological models: forest type, freeze/thaw state which limits the growing season for conifers, and leaf on/off state which limits the growing season for deciduous species. AIRSAR data collected in March 1988 during an early thaw event and May 1991 duringmore » spring breakup are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off and soil freeze/thaw transitions. Finally, a CO[sub 2] flux algorithm which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO[sub 2] flux is presented. CO[sub 2] flux maps are generated from which areal estimates of CO[sub 2] flux are derived. This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory under contract to the NASA.« less

Couples' immigration status and ethnicity as determinants of breastfeeding.

PubMed

Gibson-Davis, Christina M; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne

2006-04-01

We investigated how couples' immigration status and ethnicity determined the decision to initiate breastfeeding and to breastfeed at 6 months. From data collected on 4207 mothers and 3013 fathers participating in a longitudinal birth cohort study, we used linear regression and covariate-adjusted proportions to estimate the determinants of breastfeeding behaviors. The sample was divided by immigration status (either foreign born or born in the United States) and further subdivided by ethnicity (Mexican Hispanic, non-Mexican Hispanic, and non-Hispanic). Mothers born in the United States had an 85% reduction in the odds of breastfeeding as compared to foreign-born mothers and a 66% reduction in the odds of breastfeeding at 6 months. Each additional year of US residency decreased the odds of breastfeeding by 4%. These differences by immigration status were seen for Mexicans, other Hispanics, and non-Hispanics. The Hispanic paradox may extend to other non-Hispanic immigrants for breastfeeding behaviors, but may not be true for Hispanic mothers born in the United States. Low rates of breastfeeding for Hispanic American mothers indicate that they should not be overlooked by breastfeeding promotion programs.

Design of a two-level power system linear state estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao

The availability of synchro-phasor data has raised the possibility of a linear state estimator if the inputs are only complex currents and voltages and if there are enough such measurements to meet observability and redundancy requirements. Moreover, the new digital substations can perform some of the computation at the substation itself resulting in a more accurate two-level state estimator. The objective of this research is to develop a two-level linear state estimator processing synchro-phasor data and estimating the states at both the substation level and the control center level. Both the mathematical algorithms that are different from those in the present state estimation procedure and the layered architecture of databases, communications and application programs that are required to support this two-level linear state estimator are described in this dissertation. Besides, as the availability of phasor measurements at substations will increase gradually, this research also describes how the state estimator can be enhanced to handle both the traditional state estimator and the proposed linear state estimator simultaneously. This provides a way to immediately utilize the benefits in those parts of the system where such phasor measurements become available and provides a pathway to transition to the smart grid of the future. The design procedure of the two-level state estimator is applied to two study systems. The first study system is the IEEE-14 bus system. The second one is the 179 bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The static database for the substations is constructed from the power flow data of these systems and the real-time measurement database is produced by a power system dynamic simulating tool (TSAT). Time-skew problems that may be caused by communication delays are also considered and simulated. We used the Network Simulator (NS) tool to simulate a simple communication system and analyse its time delay performance. These time delays were too small to affect the results especially since the measurement data is time-stamped and the state estimator for these small systems could be run with subseconf frequency. Keywords: State Estimation, Synchro-Phasor Measurement, Distributed System, Energy Control Center, Substation, Time-skew

Impurity effects in highly frustrated diamond-lattice antiferromagnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savary, Lucile; Gull, Emanuel; Trebst, Simon; Alicea, Jason; Bergman, Doron; Balents, Leon

2011-08-01

We consider the effects of local impurities in highly frustrated diamond-lattice antiferromagnets, which exhibit large but nonextensive ground-state degeneracies. Such models are appropriate to many A-site magnetic spinels. We argue very generally that sufficiently dilute impurities induce an ordered magnetic ground state and provide a mechanism of degeneracy breaking. The states that are selected can be determined by a “swiss cheese model” analysis, which we demonstrate numerically for a particular impurity model in this case. Moreover, we present criteria for estimating the stability of the resulting ordered phase to a competing frozen (spin glass) one. The results may explain the contrasting finding of frozen and ordered ground states in CoAl2O4 and MnSc2S4, respectively.

Impurity Effects in Highly Frustrated Diamond-Lattice Antiferromagnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savary, Lucile

2012-02-01

We consider the effects of local impurities in highly frustrated diamond lattice antiferromagnets, which exhibit large but non-extensive ground state degeneracies. Such models are appropriate to many A-site magnetic spinels. We argue very generally that sufficiently dilute impurities induce an ordered magnetic ground state, and provide a mechanism of degeneracy breaking. The states which are selected can be determined by a ``swiss cheese model'' analysis, which we demonstrate numerically for a particular impurity model in this case. Moreover, we present criteria for estimating the stability of the resulting ordered phase to a competing frozen (spin glass) one. The results may explain the contrasting finding of frozen and ordered ground states in CoAl2O4 and MnSc2S4, respectively.

The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Ross, Craig S.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy—the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm—and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level. Methods. We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders. Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%. Conclusions. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides. PMID:24028252

Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections.

PubMed

Knapp, Sabine; Bijwaard, Govert; Heij, Christiaan

2011-07-01

The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unbiased Estimation of Refractive State of Aberrated Eyes

PubMed Central

Martin, Jesson; Vasudevan, Balamurali; Himebaugh, Nikole; Bradley, Arthur; Thibos, Larry

2011-01-01

To identify unbiased methods for estimating the target vergence required to maximize visual acuity based on wavefront aberration measurements. Experiments were designed to minimize the impact of confounding factors that have hampered previous research. Objective wavefront refractions and subjective acuity refractions were obtained for the same monochromatic wavelength. Accommodation and pupil fluctuations were eliminated by cycloplegia. Unbiased subjective refractions that maximize visual acuity for high contrast letters were performed with a computer controlled forced choice staircase procedure, using 0.125 diopter steps of defocus. All experiments were performed for two pupil diameters (3mm and 6mm). As reported in the literature, subjective refractive error does not change appreciably when the pupil dilates. For 3 mm pupils most metrics yielded objective refractions that were about 0.1D more hyperopic than subjective acuity refractions. When pupil diameter increased to 6 mm, this bias changed in the myopic direction and the variability between metrics also increased. These inaccuracies were small compared to the precision of the measurements, which implies that most metrics provided unbiased estimates of refractive state for medium and large pupils. A variety of image quality metrics may be used to determine ocular refractive state for monochromatic (635nm) light, thereby achieving accurate results without the need for empirical correction factors. PMID:21777601

Zonification of Areas Susceptible to Slope Instability in the State of Colima, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Ruiz, J. J.

2015-12-01

The Topography of the State of Colima in combination with the tectonic and geographic situation originates vulnerability to the slope instability in the Occidental part of Mexico. This problematic increase in rain Season ( May to November) due to the presence of hurricanes that can produce a great precipitations in a short time period. Likewise the seismicity present in this area due to the tectonic interaction of the tectonic plates (Cocos subducting to the Northamerica) contribute to increase this phenomenology. Here we present the results of zonification using a methodology to estimate the susceptibility areas and a procedure to estimate the probability of occurrent of this phenomena originated by precipitation and seismicity. By zonification of areas we consider topographic, morphologic and geologic factors to determine the category of the areas. . For the risk we consider the Susceptibiliy, Precipitation and Seismicity as will be described here. We consider the Precipitation return period of 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 years to estimate the risk of slope instability in the State of Colima. We observe that risk increase on this area considering the precipitation return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years and it will be accelerated by the occurrence of seismicity specially by magnitude great than 7 as it occurs at least one time each 5 years.

Adaptive Neural Network-Based Event-Triggered Control of Single-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems.

PubMed

Sahoo, Avimanyu; Xu, Hao; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel adaptive neural network (NN) control of single-input and single-output uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems under event sampled NN inputs. In this control scheme, the feedback signals are transmitted, and the NN weights are tuned in an aperiodic manner at the event sampled instants. After reviewing the NN approximation property with event sampled inputs, an adaptive state estimator (SE), consisting of linearly parameterized NNs, is utilized to approximate the unknown system dynamics in an event sampled context. The SE is viewed as a model and its approximated dynamics and the state vector, during any two events, are utilized for the event-triggered controller design. An adaptive event-trigger condition is derived by using both the estimated NN weights and a dead-zone operator to determine the event sampling instants. This condition both facilitates the NN approximation and reduces the transmission of feedback signals. The ultimate boundedness of both the NN weight estimation error and the system state vector is demonstrated through the Lyapunov approach. As expected, during an initial online learning phase, events are observed more frequently. Over time with the convergence of the NN weights, the inter-event times increase, thereby lowering the number of triggered events. These claims are illustrated through the simulation results.

A 25-year Record of Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Muir, A. S.; Sundal, A.; McMillan, M.; Briggs, K.; Hogg, A.; Engdahl, M.; Gilbert, L.

2017-12-01

Since 1992, the European Remote-Sensing (ERS-1 and ERS-2), ENVISAT, and CryoSat-2 satellite radar altimeters have measured the Antarctic ice sheet surface elevation, repeatedly, at approximately monthly intervals. These data constitute the longest continuous record of ice sheet wide change. In this paper, we use these observations to determine changes in the elevation, volume and mass of the East Antarctic and West Antarctic ice sheets, and of parts of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet, over a 25-year period. The root mean square difference between elevation rates computed from our survey and 257,296 estimates determined from airborne laser measurements is 54 cm/yr. The longevity of the satellite altimeter data record allows to identify and chart the evolution of changes associated with meteorology and ice flow, and we estimate that 3.6 % of the continental ice sheet, and 21.7 % of West Antarctica, is in a state of dynamical imbalance. Based on this partitioning, we estimate the mass balance of the East and West Antarctic ice sheet drainage basins and the root mean square difference between these and independent estimates derived from satellite gravimetry is less than 5 Gt yr-1.

Estimating short-period dynamics using an extended Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Jeffrey E.; Andrisani, Dominick

1990-01-01

An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to estimate the parameters of a low-order model from aircraft transient response data. The low-order model is a state space model derived from the short-period approximation of the longitudinal aircraft dynamics. The model corresponds to the pitch rate to stick force transfer function currently used in flying qualities analysis. Because of the model chosen, handling qualities information is also obtained. The parameters are estimated from flight data as well as from a six-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear simulation of the aircraft. These two estimates are then compared and the discrepancies noted. The low-order model is able to satisfactorily match both flight data and simulation data from a high-order computer simulation. The parameters obtained from the EKF analysis of flight data are compared to those obtained using frequency response analysis of the flight data. Time delays and damping ratios are compared and are in agreement. This technique demonstrates the potential to determine, in near real time, the extent of differences between computer models and the actual aircraft. Precise knowledge of these differences can help to determine the flying qualities of a test aircraft and lead to more efficient envelope expansion.

An Optimal Orthogonal Decomposition Method for Kalman Filter-Based Turbofan Engine Thrust Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.

2007-01-01

A new linear point design technique is presented for the determination of tuning parameters that enable the optimal estimation of unmeasured engine outputs, such as thrust. The engine's performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters related to each major engine component. Accurate thrust reconstruction depends on knowledge of these health parameters, but there are usually too few sensors to be able to estimate their values. In this new technique, a set of tuning parameters is determined that accounts for degradation by representing the overall effect of the larger set of health parameters as closely as possible in a least squares sense. The technique takes advantage of the properties of the singular value decomposition of a matrix to generate a tuning parameter vector of low enough dimension that it can be estimated by a Kalman filter. A concise design procedure to generate a tuning vector that specifically takes into account the variables of interest is presented. An example demonstrates the tuning parameters ability to facilitate matching of both measured and unmeasured engine outputs, as well as state variables. Additional properties of the formulation are shown to lend themselves well to diagnostics.

An Optimal Orthogonal Decomposition Method for Kalman Filter-Based Turbofan Engine Thrust Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.

2007-01-01

A new linear point design technique is presented for the determination of tuning parameters that enable the optimal estimation of unmeasured engine outputs, such as thrust. The engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters related to each major engine component. Accurate thrust reconstruction depends on knowledge of these health parameters, but there are usually too few sensors to be able to estimate their values. In this new technique, a set of tuning parameters is determined that accounts for degradation by representing the overall effect of the larger set of health parameters as closely as possible in a least-squares sense. The technique takes advantage of the properties of the singular value decomposition of a matrix to generate a tuning parameter vector of low enough dimension that it can be estimated by a Kalman filter. A concise design procedure to generate a tuning vector that specifically takes into account the variables of interest is presented. An example demonstrates the tuning parameters ability to facilitate matching of both measured and unmeasured engine outputs, as well as state variables. Additional properties of the formulation are shown to lend themselves well to diagnostics.

An Optimal Orthogonal Decomposition Method for Kalman Filter-Based Turbofan Engine Thrust Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.

2005-01-01

A new linear point design technique is presented for the determination of tuning parameters that enable the optimal estimation of unmeasured engine outputs such as thrust. The engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters related to each major engine component. Accurate thrust reconstruction depends upon knowledge of these health parameters, but there are usually too few sensors to be able to estimate their values. In this new technique, a set of tuning parameters is determined which accounts for degradation by representing the overall effect of the larger set of health parameters as closely as possible in a least squares sense. The technique takes advantage of the properties of the singular value decomposition of a matrix to generate a tuning parameter vector of low enough dimension that it can be estimated by a Kalman filter. A concise design procedure to generate a tuning vector that specifically takes into account the variables of interest is presented. An example demonstrates the tuning parameters ability to facilitate matching of both measured and unmeasured engine outputs, as well as state variables. Additional properties of the formulation are shown to lend themselves well to diagnostics.

The TANAMI Multiwavelength Program: Dynamic spectral energy distributions of southern blazars

DOE PAGES

Krauß, F.; Wilms, J.; Kadler, M.; ...

2016-06-28

Simultaneous broadband spectral and temporal studies of blazars are an important tool for investigating active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet physics. Aims. Here, we study the spectral evolution between quiescent and flaring periods of 22 radio-loud AGN through multiepoch, quasi-simultaneous broadband spectra. For many of these sources these are the first broadband studies. We also use a Bayesian block analysis of Fermi/LAT light curves to determine time ranges of constant flux for constructing quasi-simultaneous spectral energy distributions (SEDs). The shapes of the resulting 81 SEDs are described by two logarithmic parabolas and a blackbody spectrum where needed. The peak frequencies andmore » luminosities agree well with the blazar sequence for low states with higher luminosity implying lower peak frequencies. This is not true for sources in high states. The γ-ray photon index in Fermi/LAT correlates with the synchrotron peak frequency in low and intermediate states. No correlation is present in high states. The black hole mass cannot be determined from the SEDs. Surprisingly, the thermal excess often found in FSRQs at optical/UV wavelengths can be described by blackbody emission and not an accretion disk spectrum. The so-called harder-when-brighter trend, typically seen in X-ray spectra of flaring blazars, is visible in the blazar sequence. Furthermore, our results for low and intermediate states, as well as the Compton dominance, are in agreement with previous results. Black hole mass estimates using recently published parameters are in agreement with some of the more direct measurements. For two sources, estimates disagree by more than four orders of magnitude, possibly owing to boosting effects. The shapes of the thermal excess seen predominantly in flat spectrum radio quasars are inconsistent with a direct accretion disk origin.« less

Mathematical modeling improves EC50 estimations from classical dose-response curves.

PubMed

Nyman, Elin; Lindgren, Isa; Lövfors, William; Lundengård, Karin; Cervin, Ida; Sjöström, Theresia Arbring; Altimiras, Jordi; Cedersund, Gunnar

2015-03-01

The β-adrenergic response is impaired in failing hearts. When studying β-adrenergic function in vitro, the half-maximal effective concentration (EC50 ) is an important measure of ligand response. We previously measured the in vitro contraction force response of chicken heart tissue to increasing concentrations of adrenaline, and observed a decreasing response at high concentrations. The classical interpretation of such data is to assume a maximal response before the decrease, and to fit a sigmoid curve to the remaining data to determine EC50 . Instead, we have applied a mathematical modeling approach to interpret the full dose-response curve in a new way. The developed model predicts a non-steady-state caused by a short resting time between increased concentrations of agonist, which affect the dose-response characterization. Therefore, an improved estimate of EC50 may be calculated using steady-state simulations of the model. The model-based estimation of EC50 is further refined using additional time-resolved data to decrease the uncertainty of the prediction. The resulting model-based EC50 (180-525 nm) is higher than the classically interpreted EC50 (46-191 nm). Mathematical modeling thus makes it possible to re-interpret previously obtained datasets, and to make accurate estimates of EC50 even when steady-state measurements are not experimentally feasible. The mathematical models described here have been submitted to the JWS Online Cellular Systems Modelling Database, and may be accessed at http://jjj.bio.vu.nl/database/nyman. © 2015 FEBS.

Inferring Regulatory Networks by Combining Perturbation Screens and Steady State Gene Expression Profiles

PubMed Central

Michailidis, George

2014-01-01

Reconstructing transcriptional regulatory networks is an important task in functional genomics. Data obtained from experiments that perturb genes by knockouts or RNA interference contain useful information for addressing this reconstruction problem. However, such data can be limited in size and/or are expensive to acquire. On the other hand, observational data of the organism in steady state (e.g., wild-type) are more readily available, but their informational content is inadequate for the task at hand. We develop a computational approach to appropriately utilize both data sources for estimating a regulatory network. The proposed approach is based on a three-step algorithm to estimate the underlying directed but cyclic network, that uses as input both perturbation screens and steady state gene expression data. In the first step, the algorithm determines causal orderings of the genes that are consistent with the perturbation data, by combining an exhaustive search method with a fast heuristic that in turn couples a Monte Carlo technique with a fast search algorithm. In the second step, for each obtained causal ordering, a regulatory network is estimated using a penalized likelihood based method, while in the third step a consensus network is constructed from the highest scored ones. Extensive computational experiments show that the algorithm performs well in reconstructing the underlying network and clearly outperforms competing approaches that rely only on a single data source. Further, it is established that the algorithm produces a consistent estimate of the regulatory network. PMID:24586224

Hawai‘i Physician Workforce Assessment 2010

PubMed Central

Dall, Tim; Sakamoto, David

2012-01-01

Background National policy experts have estimated that the United States will be 15–20% short of physicians by the year 2020. In 2008, the Big Island of Hawai‘i was found to be 15% short of physicians. The current article describes research to determine the physician supply and demand across the State of Hawai‘i. Methods The researchers utilized licensure lists, all available sources of physician practice location information, and contacted provider offices to develop a database of practicing physicians in Hawai‘i. A statistical model based on national utilization of physician services by age, ethnicity, gender, insurance, and obesity rates was used to estimate demand for services. Using number of new state licenses per year, the researchers estimated the number of physicians who enter the Hawai‘i workforce annually. Physician age data were used to estimate retirements. Results Researchers found 2,860 full time equivalents of practicing, non-military, patient-care physicians in Hawai‘i (excluding those still in residency or fellowship programs). The calculated demand for physician services by specialty indicates a current shortage of physicians of over 600. This shortage may grow by 50 to 100 physicians per year if steps are not taken to reverse this trend. Physician retirement is the single largest element in the loss of physicians, with population growth and aging playing a significant role in increasing demand. Discussion Study findings indicate that Hawai‘i is 20% short of physicians and the situation is likely to worsen if mitigating steps are not taken immediately. PMID:22737636

Structural interventions to prevent HIV/sexually transmitted disease: are they cost-effective for women in the southern United States?

PubMed

Cohen, Deborah A; Wu, Shin-Yi; Farley, Thomas A

2006-07-01

Structural interventions are theoretically promising for populations with a low prevalence of HIV, because they can reach large numbers of people to influence their social norms and collective risky behaviors for a relatively low cost per person. Because HIV transmission is continuing to increase among women in the southern United States, interventions to stem this epidemic are particularly warranted. This study explores whether structural interventions may be a cost-effective way to prevent HIV in this population. We used the cost-effectiveness estimator, "Maximizing the Benefit" to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of 6 structural HIV prevention interventions. "Maximizing the Benefit" is a spreadsheet tool using mathematical models to estimate the cost per HIV infection prevented taking into account the epidemiologic contexts, behavioral change as a result of an intervention, and the costs of intervention. We applied estimates of HIV prevalence related to blacks in the southern United States. All the structural interventions were cost-effective compared with average lifetime treatment costs of HIV, but mass media, condom availability, and alcohol taxes theoretically prevented the largest numbers of HIV infections. Although the assumptions used in cost-effectiveness estimates have many limitations, they do allow for a relative comparison of different interventions and help to inform policy decisions related to the allocation of HIV prevention resources. Structural interventions hold the greatest promise in reducing HIV transmission among low-prevalence populations.

A methodology to identify stranded generation facilities and estimate stranded costs for Louisiana's electric utility industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cope, Robert Frank, III

1998-12-01

The electric utility industry in the United States is currently experiencing a new and different type of growing pain. It is the pain of having to restructure itself into a competitive business. Many industry experts are trying to explain how the nation as a whole, as well as individual states, will implement restructuring and handle its numerous "transition problems." One significant transition problem for federal and state regulators rests with determining a utility's stranded costs. Stranded generation facilities are assets which would be uneconomic in a competitive environment or costs for assets whose regulated book value is greater than market value. At issue is the methodology which will be used to estimate stranded costs. The two primary methods are known as "Top-Down" and "Bottom-Up." The "Top-Down" approach simply determines the present value of the losses in revenue as the market price for electricity changes over a period of time into the future. The problem with this approach is that it does not take into account technical issues associated with the generation and wheeling of electricity. The "Bottom-Up" approach computes the present value of specific strandable generation facilities and compares the resulting valuations with their historical costs. It is regarded as a detailed and difficult, but more precise, approach to identifying stranded assets and their associated costs. This dissertation develops a "Bottom-Up" quantitative, optimization-based approach to electric power wheeling within the state of Louisiana. It optimally evaluates all production capabilities and coordinates the movement of bulk power through transmission interconnections of competing companies in and around the state. Sensitivity analysis to this approach is performed by varying seasonal consumer demand, electric power imports, and transmission inter-connection cost parameters. Generation facility economic dispatch and transmission interconnection bulk power transfers, specific to each set of parameters, lead to the identification of stranded generation facilities. Stranded costs of non-dispatched and uneconomically dispatched generation facilities can then be estimated to indicate, arguably, the largest portion of restructuring transition costs as the industry is transformed from its present monopolistic structure to a competitive one.

Probability of viremia with HBV, HCV, HIV, and HTLV among tissue donors in the United States.

PubMed

Zou, Shimian; Dodd, Roger Y; Stramer, Susan L; Strong, D Michael

2004-08-19

Tissue-banking organizations in the United States have introduced various review and testing procedures to reduce the risk of the transmission of viral infections from tissue grafts. We estimated the current probability of undetected viremia with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) among tissue donors. Rates of prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and antibodies against HIV (anti-HIV), HCV (anti-HCV), and HTLV (anti-HTLV) were determined among 11,391 donors to five tissue banks in the United States. The data were compared with those of first-time blood donors in order to generate estimated incidence rates among tissue donors. The probability of viremia undetected by screening at the time of tissue donation was estimated on the basis of the incidence estimates and the window periods for these infections. The prevalence of confirmed positive tests among tissue donors was 0.093 percent for anti-HIV, 0.229 percent for HBsAg, 1.091 percent for anti-HCV, and 0.068 percent for anti-HTLV. The incidence rates were estimated to be 30.118, 18.325, 12.380, and 5.586 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The estimated probability of viremia at the time of donation was 1 in 55,000, 1 in 34,000, 1 in 42,000, and 1 in 128,000, respectively. The prevalence rates of HBV, HCV, HIV, and HTLV infections are lower among tissue donors than in the general population. However, the estimated probability of undetected viremia at the time of tissue donation is higher among tissue donors than among first-time blood donors. The addition of nucleic acid-amplification testing to the screening of tissue donors should reduce the risk of these infections among recipients of donated tissues. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society

Earth Observation System Flight Dynamics System Covariance Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaidi, Waqar H.; Tracewell, David

2016-01-01

This presentation applies a covariance realism technique to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observation System (EOS) Aqua and Aura spacecraft based on inferential statistics. The technique consists of three parts: collection calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics.

Development of a method using multispectral imagery and spatial pattern metrics to quantify stress to wheat fields caused by Diuraphis noxia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia, is an important pest of winter wheat, Triticum aestivum, and barley, Hordeum vulgare that has caused an annual economic loss estimated at over 1 billion dollars since it first appeared in the United States. The objective of this study was to determine the p...

Optimal Level of Expenditure to Control the Southern Pine Beetle

Treesearch

Joseph E. de Steiguer; Roy L. Hedden; John M. Pye

1987-01-01

Optimal level of expenditure to control damage to commercial timber stands by the southern pine beetle was determined by models that simulated and analyzed beetle attacks during a typical season for 11 Southern States. At a real discount rate of 4 percent, maximized net benefits for the Southern region are estimated at about $50 million; at 10 percent, more than $30...

Thermal Conductivity of Functional Citrus Tree Wood 1

PubMed Central

Turrell, F. M.; Austin, S. W.; McNee, Dan; Park, W. J.

1967-01-01

Thermal conductivity coefficients have been determined for longitudinal and transverse flow in 4 varieties of fresh Citrus wood using steady state-methods. Equations were developed from which thermal conductivity could be rapidly estimated from moisture content or electrical conductivity. The heat balance of large and small tree trunks on a freezing night has been calculated on the basis of the coefficients. PMID:16656610

The Development of a Cost of Education Index: Some Empirical Estimates and Policy Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chambers, Jay G.

This paper outlines an approach for adjusting state aid for differences in educational costs. The approach focuses on determinants of the variation in the prices of school inputs such as cost of heating fuel, ability of the area to attract teachers, and needs for student transportation. The system attempts to isolate that component of the…

An Inquiry into the Relationship between Projected Changes in Earnings per Share and Subsequent Security Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barbee, William C., Jr.

The purpose of this study was to examine the variable of estimated earnings in order to determine how forecasts might be utilized to develop a securities portfolio strategy. The hypothesis stated that there is an inverse relationship between projected change in earnings per share and security performance. Ninety-one New York Stock Exchange…

Determining genetic erosion in fourteen Picea chihuahuana Martínez populations.

Treesearch

C.Z. Quiñones-Pérez; C. Wehenkel

2017-01-01

Picea chihuahuana is an endemic species in Mexico and is considered endangered, according to the Mexican Official Norm (NOM-ECOL-059-2010). This species covers a total area of no more than 300 ha located in at least 40 sites along the Sierra Madre Occidental in Durango and Chihuahua states. A minimum of 42,600 individuals has been estimated,...

Sporotrichosis-Associated Hospitalizations, United States, 2000–2013

PubMed Central

Gold, Jeremy A.W.; Derado, Gordana; Mody, Rajal K.

2016-01-01

To determine frequency and risk for sporotrichosis-associated hospitalizations, we analyzed the US 2000–2013 National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample. An estimated 1,471 hospitalizations occurred (average annual rate 0.35/1 million persons). Hospitalizations were associated with HIV/AIDS, immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Although rare, severe sporotrichosis should be considered for at-risk patients. PMID:27648881

Determining forest carbon stock losses due to wildfire disturbance in the Western United States

Treesearch

John M. Zobel; John W. Coulston

2015-01-01

Quantifying carbon stock losses after wildfire events is challenging due to the lack of detailed information before and after the disturbance. We propose to use the extensive Western FIA database (including periodic and annual inventories) to recreate pre- and post-fire conditions to better estimate actual carbon losses. Methods include using remeasurement date where...

Effect of the Smoke-Free Illinois Act on casino admissions and revenue.

PubMed

Tauras, John A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Moor, Gregg; Henderson, Patricia Nez; Leischow, Scott J

2018-01-19

As part of the Smoke-Free Illinois Act, smoking on the gambling floors of all commercial casinos in Illinois became prohibited. This study examined the effects of the Smoke-Free Illinois Act on casino admissions per-capita and real per-capita adjusted gross receipts using 18 years of data (10 years before and 8 years after the Illinois law went into effect). We employed a difference-in-difference regression technique using monthly data for the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Missouri and control for numerous determinants expected to affect casino admissions and revenue. The Smoke-free Illinois Act was found not to be a statistically significant determinant of per-capita casino admissions and of real per-capita gross adjusted receipts in all the models we estimated. The estimates from this study clearly indicated that the Illinois law that banned smoking in casinos has had no significant negative economic consequences for casinos in terms of per-capita admissions or revenues. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Optimal electrode selection for multi-channel electroencephalogram based detection of auditory steady-state responses.

PubMed

Van Dun, Bram; Wouters, Jan; Moonen, Marc

2009-07-01

Auditory steady-state responses (ASSRs) are used for hearing threshold estimation at audiometric frequencies. Hearing impaired newborns, in particular, benefit from this technique as it allows for a more precise diagnosis than traditional techniques, and a hearing aid can be better fitted at an early age. However, measurement duration of current single-channel techniques is still too long for clinical widespread use. This paper evaluates the practical performance of a multi-channel electroencephalogram (EEG) processing strategy based on a detection theory approach. A minimum electrode set is determined for ASSRs with frequencies between 80 and 110 Hz using eight-channel EEG measurements of ten normal-hearing adults. This set provides a near-optimal hearing threshold estimate for all subjects and improves response detection significantly for EEG data with numerous artifacts. Multi-channel processing does not significantly improve response detection for EEG data with few artifacts. In this case, best response detection is obtained when noise-weighted averaging is applied on single-channel data. The same test setup (eight channels, ten normal-hearing subjects) is also used to determine a minimum electrode setup for 10-Hz ASSRs. This configuration allows to record near-optimal signal-to-noise ratios for 80% of subjects.

Extracting concrete thermal characteristics from temperature time history of RC column exposed to standard fire.

PubMed

Kim, Jung J; Youm, Kwang-Soo; Reda Taha, Mahmoud M

2014-01-01

A numerical method to identify thermal conductivity from time history of one-dimensional temperature variations in thermal unsteady-state is proposed. The numerical method considers the change of specific heat and thermal conductivity with respect to temperature. Fire test of reinforced concrete (RC) columns was conducted using a standard fire to obtain time history of temperature variations in the column section. A thermal equilibrium model in unsteady-state condition was developed. The thermal conductivity of concrete was then determined by optimizing the numerical solution of the model to meet the observed time history of temperature variations. The determined thermal conductivity with respect to temperature was then verified against standard thermal conductivity measurements of concrete bricks. It is concluded that the proposed method can be used to conservatively estimate thermal conductivity of concrete for design purpose. Finally, the thermal radiation properties of concrete for the RC column were estimated from the thermal equilibrium at the surface of the column. The radiant heat transfer ratio of concrete representing absorptivity to emissivity ratio of concrete during fire was evaluated and is suggested as a concrete criterion that can be used in fire safety assessment.

Extracting Concrete Thermal Characteristics from Temperature Time History of RC Column Exposed to Standard Fire

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

A numerical method to identify thermal conductivity from time history of one-dimensional temperature variations in thermal unsteady-state is proposed. The numerical method considers the change of specific heat and thermal conductivity with respect to temperature. Fire test of reinforced concrete (RC) columns was conducted using a standard fire to obtain time history of temperature variations in the column section. A thermal equilibrium model in unsteady-state condition was developed. The thermal conductivity of concrete was then determined by optimizing the numerical solution of the model to meet the observed time history of temperature variations. The determined thermal conductivity with respect to temperature was then verified against standard thermal conductivity measurements of concrete bricks. It is concluded that the proposed method can be used to conservatively estimate thermal conductivity of concrete for design purpose. Finally, the thermal radiation properties of concrete for the RC column were estimated from the thermal equilibrium at the surface of the column. The radiant heat transfer ratio of concrete representing absorptivity to emissivity ratio of concrete during fire was evaluated and is suggested as a concrete criterion that can be used in fire safety assessment. PMID:25180197

Hydrogeology and ground-water resources of Pingelap Island, Pingelap Atoll, State of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, S.S.

1996-01-01

The lens of fresh ground water on Pingelap Island, Pingelap Atoll contains about 384 million gallons of potable water. Recharge to the freshwater lens is estimated to be 230,000 gallons per day on the basis of an average annual rainfall of 160 inches. The long-term average sustainable yield is estimated to be about 69,000 gallons per day. The estimated demand for water is about 50,000 gallons per day. Shallow-vertical-tube wells or horizontal-infiltration wells could be used to develop the freshwater lens. The effect of development on the lens can be determined by monitoring the chloride concentration of water from a network of shallow-water-table wells and deep driven wells. The ground-water resource on Pingelap can be used in conjunction with individual rainwater-catchment systems: rainwater can be used for drinking and cooking, and ground water can be used for sanitary uses. When rainwater-catchment systems fail during extended dry periods, ground water would be available to meet the total demand.

Hydrogeology and ground-water resources of Kahlap Island, Mwoakilloa Atoll, State of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, S.S.

1996-01-01

The lens of fresh ground water on Kahlap Island contains about 21.3 million gallons of potable water. Recharge to the freshwater lens is estimated to be 125,000 gallons per day on the basis of a mean annual rainfall of 120 inches. The long-term average sustainable yield is estimated to be about 17,300 gallons per day. The estimated demand for water is about 13,500 gallons per day. Shallow-vertical-tube wells or horizontal- infiltration wells could be used to develop the freshwater lens. The effect of development on the lens can be determined by monitoring the chloride concentration of water from a network of shallow- water-table and deep driven wells. The ground- water resource on Kahlap can be used in conjunc- tion with individual rainwater-catchment systems: rainwater can be used for drinking and cooking, and ground water can be used for sanitary uses. When rainwater-catchment systems fail during extended dry periods, ground water would be available to meet the total demand.

Extraction of Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives for the Basic F-18 Aircraft at High Angles of Attack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, Kenneth W.; Wang, Kon-Sheng Charles

1997-01-01

The results of parameter identification to determine the lateral-directional stability and control derivatives of an F-18 research aircraft in its basic hardware and software configuration are presented. The derivatives are estimated from dynamic flight data using a specialized identification program developed at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. The formulation uses the linearized aircraft equations of motions in their continuous/discrete form and a maximum likelihood estimator that accounts for both state and measurement noise. State noise is used to model the uncommanded forcing function caused by unsteady aerodynamics, such as separated and vortical flows, over the aircraft. The derivatives are plotted as functions of angle of attack between 3 deg and 47 deg and compared with wind-tunnel predictions. The quality of the derivative estimates obtained by parameter identification is somewhat degraded because the maneuvers were flown with the aircraft's control augmentation system engaged, which introduced relatively high correlations between the control variables and response variables as a result of control motions from the feedback control system.

Observability Analysis of a MEMS INS/GPS Integration System with Gyroscope G-Sensitivity Errors

PubMed Central

Fan, Chen; Hu, Xiaoping; He, Xiaofeng; Tang, Kanghua; Luo, Bing

2014-01-01

Gyroscopes based on micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) technology suffer in high-dynamic applications due to obvious g-sensitivity errors. These errors can induce large biases in the gyroscope, which can directly affect the accuracy of attitude estimation in the integration of the inertial navigation system (INS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). The observability determines the existence of solutions for compensating them. In this paper, we investigate the observability of the INS/GPS system with consideration of the g-sensitivity errors. In terms of two types of g-sensitivity coefficients matrix, we add them as estimated states to the Kalman filter and analyze the observability of three or nine elements of the coefficient matrix respectively. A global observable condition of the system is presented and validated. Experimental results indicate that all the estimated states, which include position, velocity, attitude, gyro and accelerometer bias, and g-sensitivity coefficients, could be made observable by maneuvering based on the conditions. Compared with the integration system without compensation for the g-sensitivity errors, the attitude accuracy is raised obviously. PMID:25171122

Observability analysis of a MEMS INS/GPS integration system with gyroscope G-sensitivity errors.

PubMed

Fan, Chen; Hu, Xiaoping; He, Xiaofeng; Tang, Kanghua; Luo, Bing

2014-08-28

Gyroscopes based on micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) technology suffer in high-dynamic applications due to obvious g-sensitivity errors. These errors can induce large biases in the gyroscope, which can directly affect the accuracy of attitude estimation in the integration of the inertial navigation system (INS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). The observability determines the existence of solutions for compensating them. In this paper, we investigate the observability of the INS/GPS system with consideration of the g-sensitivity errors. In terms of two types of g-sensitivity coefficients matrix, we add them as estimated states to the Kalman filter and analyze the observability of three or nine elements of the coefficient matrix respectively. A global observable condition of the system is presented and validated. Experimental results indicate that all the estimated states, which include position, velocity, attitude, gyro and accelerometer bias, and g-sensitivity coefficients, could be made observable by maneuvering based on the conditions. Compared with the integration system without compensation for the g-sensitivity errors, the attitude accuracy is raised obviously.

Metamorphic P-T paths and Precambrian crustal growth in East Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harley, S. L.

1988-01-01

The metamorphic constraints on crustal thicknesses in Archean and post-Archean terranes are summarized along with possible implications for tectonic processes. It is important to recognize that P-T estimates represent perturbed conditions and should not be used to estimate steady state geothermal gradients or crustal thicknesses. The example is cited of the Dora Maira complex in the French Alps, where crustal rocks record conditions of 35 kbar and 800 C, implying their subduction to depths of 100 km or more, followed by subsequent uplift to the surface. Therefore such P-T estimates tell more about processes than crustal thicknesses. More importantly, according to the author, are determinations of P-T paths, particularly coupled with age measurements, because these may provide constraints on how and when perturbed conditions relax back to steady state conditions. P-T paths are illustrated that should be expected from specific tectonic processes, including Tibetan style collision, with and without subsequent extension, rifting of thin or thickened crust, and magmatic accretion. Growth of new crust, associated with magmatic accretion, for example, could possibly be monitored with these P-T paths.

State and Parameter Estimation for a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Kondrashov, D.; Sun, C.

2006-12-01

The El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual climate variability and plays, therefore, a key role in seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Much is known by now about the main physical mechanisms that give rise to and modulate ENSO, but the values of several parameters that enter these mechanisms are an important unknown. We apply Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) for both model state and parameter estimation in an intermediate, nonlinear, coupled ocean--atmosphere model of ENSO. The coupled model consists of an upper-ocean, reduced-gravity model of the Tropical Pacific and a steady-state atmospheric response to the sea surface temperature (SST). The model errors are assumed to be mainly in the atmospheric wind stress, and assimilated data are equatorial Pacific SSTs. Model behavior is very sensitive to two key parameters: (i) μ, the ocean-atmosphere coupling coefficient between SST and wind stress anomalies; and (ii) δs, the surface-layer coefficient. Previous work has shown that δs determines the period of the model's self-sustained oscillation, while μ measures the degree of nonlinearity. Depending on the values of these parameters, the spatio-temporal pattern of model solutions is either that of a delayed oscillator or of a westward propagating mode. Estimation of these parameters is tested first on synthetic data and allows us to recover the delayed-oscillator mode starting from model parameter values that correspond to the westward-propagating case. Assimilation of SST data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis-2 shows that the parameters can vary on fairly short time scales and switch between values that approximate the two distinct modes of ENSO behavior. Rapid adjustments of these parameters occur, in particular, during strong ENSO events. Ways to apply EKF parameter estimation efficiently to state-of-the-art coupled ocean--atmosphere GCMs will be discussed.

Simultaneous Mass Determination for Gravitationally Coupled Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, James; Chesley, Steven R.

2017-08-01

The conventional least-squares asteroid mass determination algorithm allows us to solve for the mass of a large subject asteroid that is perturbing the trajectory of a smaller test asteroid. However, this algorithm is necessarily a first approximation, ignoring the possibility that the subject asteroid may itself be perturbed by the test asteroid, or that the encounter’s precise geometry may be entangled with encounters involving other asteroids. After reviewing the conventional algorithm, we use it to calculate the masses of 30 main-belt asteroids. Compared to our previous results, we find new mass estimates for eight asteroids (11 Parthenope, 27 Euterpe, 51 Neimausa, 76 Freia, 121 Hermione, 324 Bamberga, 476 Hedwig, and 532 Herculina) and significantly more precise estimates for six others (2 Pallas, 3 Juno, 4 Vesta, 9 Metis, 16 Psyche, and 88 Thisbe). However, we also find that the conventional algorithm yields questionable results in several gravitationally coupled cases. To address such cases, we describe a new algorithm that allows the epoch state vectors of the subject asteroids to be included as solve-for parameters, allowing for the simultaneous solution of the masses and epoch state vectors of multiple subject and test asteroids. We then apply this algorithm to the same 30 main-belt asteroids and conclude that mass determinations resulting from current and future high-precision astrometric sources (such as Gaia) should conduct a thorough search for possible gravitational couplings and account for their effects.

3-D High-Lift Flow-Physics Experiment - Transition Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGinley, Catherine B.; Jenkins, Luther N.; Watson, Ralph D.; Bertelrud, Arild

2005-01-01

An analysis of the flow state on a trapezoidal wing model from the NASA 3-D High Lift Flow Physics Experiment is presented. The objective of the experiment was to characterize the flow over a non-proprietary semi-span three-element high-lift configuration to aid in assessing the state of the art in the computation of three-dimensional high-lift flows. Surface pressures and hot-film sensors are used to determine the flow conditions on the slat, main, and flap. The locations of the attachments lines and the values of the attachment line Reynolds number are estimated based on the model surface pressures. Data from the hot-films are used to determine if the flow is laminar, transitional, or turbulent by examining the hot-film time histories, statistics, and frequency spectra.

UAV State Estimation Modeling Techniques in AHRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razali, Shikin; Zhahir, Amzari

2017-11-01

Autonomous unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) system is depending on state estimation feedback to control flight operation. Estimation on the correct state improves navigation accuracy and achieves flight mission safely. One of the sensors configuration used in UAV state is Attitude Heading and Reference System (AHRS) with application of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) or feedback controller. The results of these two different techniques in estimating UAV states in AHRS configuration are displayed through position and attitude graphs.

A critical overview of definitions and determination techniques of the internal resistance using lithium-ion, lead-acid, nickel metal-hydride batteries and electrochemical double-layer capacitors as examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piłatowicz, Grzegorz; Marongiu, Andrea; Drillkens, Julia; Sinhuber, Philipp; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-11-01

The internal resistance (Ri) is one of the key parameters that determine the current state of electrochemical storage systems (ESS). It is crucial for estimating cranking capability in conventional cars, available power in modern hybrid and electric vehicles and for determining commonly used factors such as state-of-health (SoH) and state-of-function (SoF). However, ESS are complex and non-linear systems. Their Ri depends on many parameters such as current rate, temperature, SoH and state-of-charge (SoC). It is also a fact that no standardized methodologies exist and many different definitions and ways of Ri determination are being used. Nevertheless, in many cases authors are not aware of the consequences that occur when different Ri definitions are being used, such as possible misinterpretations, doubtful comparisons and false figures of merit. This paper focuses on an application-oriented separation between various Ri definitions and highlights the differences between them. The investigation was based on the following technologies: lead-acid, lithium-ion and nickel metal-hydride batteries as well as electrochemical double-layer capacitors. It is not the target of this paper to provide a standardized definition of Ri but to give researchers, engineers and manufacturers a possibility to understand what the term Ri means in their own work.

Extending the range of turbidity measurement using polarimetry

DOEpatents

Baba, Justin S.

2017-11-21

Turbidity measurements are obtained by directing a polarized optical beam to a scattering sample. Scattered portions of the beam are measured in orthogonal polarization states to determine a scattering minimum and a scattering maximum. These values are used to determine a degree of polarization of the scattered portions of the beam, and concentrations of scattering materials or turbidity can be estimated using the degree of polarization. Typically, linear polarizations are used, and scattering is measured along an axis that orthogonal to the direction of propagation of the polarized optical beam.

Determination of balloon gas mass and revised estimates of drag and virtual mass coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robbins, E.; Martone, M.

1993-01-01

In support of the NASA Balloon Program, small-scale balloons were flown with varying lifting gas and total system mass. Instrument packages were developed to measure and record acceleration and temperature data during these tests. Top fitting and instrument payload accelerations were measured from launch to steady state ascent and through ballast drop transients. The development of the small lightweight self-powered Stowaway Special instrument packages is discussed along with mathematical models developed to determine gas mass, drag and virtual mass coefficients.

Estimates of evapotranspiration in alkaline scrub and meadow communities of Owens Valley, California, using the Bowen-ratio, eddy-correlation, and penman-combination methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duell, Lowell F. W.

1990-01-01

In Owens Valley, evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the largest components of outflow in the hydrologic budget and the least understood. ET estimates for December 1983 through October 1985 were made for seven representative locations selected on the basis of geohydrology and the characteristics of phreatophytic alkaline scrub and meadow communities. The Bowen-ratio, eddy-correlation, and Penman-combination methods were used to estimate ET. The results of the analyses appear satisfactory when compared with other estimates of ET. Results by the eddy-correlation method are for a direct and a residual latent-heat flux that is based on sensible-heat flux and energy-budget measurements. Penman-combination potential-ET estimates were determined to be unusable because they overestimated actual ET. Modification of the psychrometer constant of this method to account for differences between heat-diffusion resistance and vapor-diffusion resistance permitted actual ET to be estimated. The methods described in this report may be used for studies in similar semiarid and arid rangeland areas in the Western United States. Meteorological data for three field sites are included in the appendix of this report. Simple linear regression analysis indicates that ET estimates are correlated to air temperature, vapor-density deficit, and net radiation. Estimates of annual ET range from 301 millimeters at a low-density scrub site to 1,137 millimeters at a high-density meadow site. The monthly percentage of annual ET was determined to be similar for all sites studied.

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Eric; Konan, Arnaud; Duran, Adam

2017-03-28

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the currentmore » state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.« less

Estimation of Hidden State Variables of the Intracranial System Using Constrained Nonlinear Kalman Filters

PubMed Central

Nenov, Valeriy; Bergsneider, Marvin; Glenn, Thomas C.; Vespa, Paul; Martin, Neil

2007-01-01

Impeded by the rigid skull, assessment of physiological variables of the intracranial system is difficult. A hidden state estimation approach is used in the present work to facilitate the estimation of unobserved variables from available clinical measurements including intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV). The estimation algorithm is based on a modified nonlinear intracranial mathematical model, whose parameters are first identified in an offline stage using a nonlinear optimization paradigm. Following the offline stage, an online filtering process is performed using a nonlinear Kalman filter (KF)-like state estimator that is equipped with a new way of deriving the Kalman gain satisfying the physiological constraints on the state variables. The proposed method is then validated by comparing different state estimation methods and input/output (I/O) configurations using simulated data. It is also applied to a set of CBFV, ICP and arterial blood pressure (ABP) signal segments from brain injury patients. The results indicated that the proposed constrained nonlinear KF achieved the best performance among the evaluated state estimators and that the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has ICP as the measured output can potentially be used to estimate CBFV continuously. Finally, the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has both ICP and CBFV as outputs can potentially estimate the lumped cerebral arterial radii, which are not measurable in a typical clinical environment. PMID:17281533

Short arc orbit determination for altimeter calibration and validation on TOPEX/POSEIDON

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, B. G.; Christensen, E. J.; Yuan, D. N.; Mccoll, K. C.; Sunseri, R. F.

1993-01-01

TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) is a joint mission of United States' National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) design launched August 10, 1992. It carries two radar altimeters which alternately share a common antenna. There are two project designated verification sites, a NASA site off the coast at Pt. Conception, CA and a CNES site near Lampedusa Island in the Mediterranean Sea. Altimeter calibration and validation for T/P is performed over these highly instrumented sites by comparing the spacecraft's altimeter radar range to computed range based on in situ measurements which include the estimated orbit position. This paper presents selected results of orbit determination over each of these sites to support altimeter verification. A short arc orbit determination technique is used to estimate a locally accurate position determination of T/P from less than one revolution of satellite laser ranging (SLR) data. This technique is relatively insensitive to gravitational and non-gravitational force modeling errors and is demonstrated by covariance analysis and by comparison to orbits determined from longer arcs of data and other tracking data types, such as Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) and Global Positioning System Demonstration Receiver (GPSDR) data.

Single-Frequency GPS Relative Navigation in a High Ionosphere Orbital Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conrad, Patrick R.; Naasz, Bo J.

2007-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) provides a convenient source for space vehicle relative navigation measurements, especially for low Earth orbit formation flying and autonomous rendezvous mission concepts. For single-frequency GPS receivers, ionospheric path delay can be a significant error source if not properly mitigated. In particular, ionospheric effects are known to cause significant radial position error bias and add dramatically to relative state estimation error if the onboard navigation software does not force the use of measurements from common or shared GPS space vehicles. Results from GPS navigation simulations are presented for a pair of space vehicles flying in formation and using GPS pseudorange measurements to perform absolute and relative orbit determination. With careful measurement selection techniques relative state estimation accuracy to less than 20 cm with standard GPS pseudorange processing and less than 10 cm with single-differenced pseudorange processing is shown.

[Food insecurity in the state of Nayarit, Mexico, and its association with socioeconomic factors].

PubMed

Haro-Mota, Rebeca de; Marceleño-Flores, Susana; Bojórquez-Serrano, José Irán; Nájera-González, Oyolsi

2016-08-01

Objetive: To estimate the proportion of households with food insecurity (FI) in twenty municipalities in the state of Nayarit, Mexico, and to identify the factors that determine it. FI was estimated using the harmonized version for Mexico of the Latin American and Caribbean household food security scale (ELCSA). Households were classified according to FI level: mild, moderate and severe. The distribution of FI was described by type of locality and prevalence of FI was analyzed by associated variables. 76.2% of households were identified with some FI level.The prevalence of FI was higher in rural households. Food insecurity situation was focused on households with the highest number of children under five years, highest number of older than 64 years, highest number of household members, female headship and less schooling of the household head. ELCSA can be useful to associate FI with socioeconomic factors.

Nonlinear model predictive control for chemical looping process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Abhinaya; Lei, Hao; Lou, Xinsheng

A control system for optimizing a chemical looping ("CL") plant includes a reduced order mathematical model ("ROM") that is designed by eliminating mathematical terms that have minimal effect on the outcome. A non-linear optimizer provides various inputs to the ROM and monitors the outputs to determine the optimum inputs that are then provided to the CL plant. An estimator estimates the values of various internal state variables of the CL plant. The system has one structure adapted to control a CL plant that only provides pressure measurements in the CL loops A and B, a second structure adapted to amore » CL plant that provides pressure measurements and solid levels in both loops A, and B, and a third structure adapted to control a CL plant that provides full information on internal state variables. A final structure provides a neural network NMPC controller to control operation of loops A and B.« less

State energy price and expenditure report 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-06-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the United States. The price and expenditure estimates developed in the State Energy Price and Expenditure Data System (SEPEDS) are provided by energy source and economic sector and are published for the years 1970 through 1994. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures and the documentation for those estimates are taken from the State Energy Data Report 1994, Consumption Estimates (SEDR), published in October 1996. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimatesmore » by the consumption estimates, which are adjusted to remove process fuel; intermediate petroleum products; and other consumption that has no direct fuel costs, i.e., hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, and photovoltaic energy sources. Documentation is included describing the development of price estimates, data sources, and calculation methods. 316 tabs.« less

Hierarchical State-Space Estimation of Leatherback Turtle Navigation Ability

PubMed Central

Mills Flemming, Joanna; Jonsen, Ian D.; Field, Christopher A.

2010-01-01

Remotely sensed tracking technology has revealed remarkable migration patterns that were previously unknown; however, models to optimally use such data have developed more slowly. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayes state-space framework that allows us to combine tracking data from a collection of animals and make inferences at both individual and broader levels. We formulate models that allow the navigation ability of animals to be estimated and demonstrate how information can be combined over many animals to allow improved estimation. We also show how formal hypothesis testing regarding navigation ability can easily be accomplished in this framework. Using Argos satellite tracking data from 14 leatherback turtles, 7 males and 7 females, during their southward migration from Nova Scotia, Canada, we find that the circle of confusion (the radius around an animal's location within which it is unable to determine its location precisely) is approximately 96 km. This estimate suggests that the turtles' navigation does not need to be highly accurate, especially if they are able to use more reliable cues as they near their destination. Moreover, for the 14 turtles examined, there is little evidence to suggest that male and female navigation abilities differ. Because of the minimal assumptions made about the movement process, our approach can be used to estimate and compare navigation ability for many migratory species that are able to carry electronic tracking devices. PMID:21203382

Integrative missing value estimation for microarray data.

PubMed

Hu, Jianjun; Li, Haifeng; Waterman, Michael S; Zhou, Xianghong Jasmine

2006-10-12

Missing value estimation is an important preprocessing step in microarray analysis. Although several methods have been developed to solve this problem, their performance is unsatisfactory for datasets with high rates of missing data, high measurement noise, or limited numbers of samples. In fact, more than 80% of the time-series datasets in Stanford Microarray Database contain less than eight samples. We present the integrative Missing Value Estimation method (iMISS) by incorporating information from multiple reference microarray datasets to improve missing value estimation. For each gene with missing data, we derive a consistent neighbor-gene list by taking reference data sets into consideration. To determine whether the given reference data sets are sufficiently informative for integration, we use a submatrix imputation approach. Our experiments showed that iMISS can significantly and consistently improve the accuracy of the state-of-the-art Local Least Square (LLS) imputation algorithm by up to 15% improvement in our benchmark tests. We demonstrated that the order-statistics-based integrative imputation algorithms can achieve significant improvements over the state-of-the-art missing value estimation approaches such as LLS and is especially good for imputing microarray datasets with a limited number of samples, high rates of missing data, or very noisy measurements. With the rapid accumulation of microarray datasets, the performance of our approach can be further improved by incorporating larger and more appropriate reference datasets.

Evaluation of a simple, point-scale hydrologic model in simulating soil moisture using the Delaware environmental observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legates, David R.; Junghenn, Katherine T.

2018-04-01

Many local weather station networks that measure a number of meteorological variables (i.e. , mesonetworks) have recently been established, with soil moisture occasionally being part of the suite of measured variables. These mesonetworks provide data from which detailed estimates of various hydrological parameters, such as precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, can be made which, when coupled with simple surface characteristics available from soil surveys, can be used to obtain estimates of soil moisture. The question is Can meteorological data be used with a simple hydrologic model to estimate accurately daily soil moisture at a mesonetwork site? Using a state-of-the-art mesonetwork that also includes soil moisture measurements across the US State of Delaware, the efficacy of a simple, modified Thornthwaite/Mather-based daily water balance model based on these mesonetwork observations to estimate site-specific soil moisture is determined. Results suggest that the model works reasonably well for most well-drained sites and provides good qualitative estimates of measured soil moisture, often near the accuracy of the soil moisture instrumentation. The model exhibits particular trouble in that it cannot properly simulate the slow drainage that occurs in poorly drained soils after heavy rains and interception loss, resulting from grass not being short cropped as expected also adversely affects the simulation. However, the model could be tuned to accommodate some non-standard siting characteristics.

Monitoring of Batch Industrial Crystallization with Growth, Nucleation, and Agglomeration. Part 2: Structure Design for State Estimation with Secondary Measurements

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This work investigates the design of alternative monitoring tools based on state estimators for industrial crystallization systems with nucleation, growth, and agglomeration kinetics. The estimation problem is regarded as a structure design problem where the estimation model and the set of innovated states have to be chosen; the estimator is driven by the available measurements of secondary variables. On the basis of Robust Exponential estimability arguments, it is found that the concentration is distinguishable with temperature and solid fraction measurements while the crystal size distribution (CSD) is not. Accordingly, a state estimator structure is selected such that (i) the concentration (and other distinguishable states) are innovated by means of the secondary measurements processed with the geometric estimator (GE), and (ii) the CSD is estimated by means of a rigorous model in open loop mode. The proposed estimator has been tested through simulations showing good performance in the case of mismatch in the initial conditions, parametric plant-model mismatch, and noisy measurements. PMID:28890604