The Condition of America's Schools: A National Disgrace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crampton, Faith E.; Thompson, David C.

2002-01-01

Investigates state unmet funding needs for school infrastructure. Finds an estimated total of $266.1 billion in unmet funding needs. Provides state-by-state estimates of unmet funding that range from $220.1 million in Vermont to $47.6 billion in New York. Compares urban and rural infrastructure needs. Includes recommendations for school business…

LACIE large area acreage estimation. [United States of America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chhikara, R. S.; Feiveson, A. H. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

A sample wheat acreage for a large area is obtained by multiplying its small grains acreage estimate as computed by the classification and mensuration subsystem by the best available ratio of wheat to small grains acreages obtained from historical data. In the United States, as in other countries with detailed historical data, an additional level of aggregation was required because sample allocation was made at the substratum level. The essential features of the estimation procedure for LACIE countries are included along with procedures for estimating wheat acreage in the United States.

Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States, 1925-94

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

This volume presents estimates of fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States for 192594 that were prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It includes the investment series that were used to construct these estimates; for mo...

Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The fifth monthly progress report includes corrections and additions to the previously submitted reports. The addition of the SRB propellant thickness as a state variable is included with the associated partial derivatives. During this reporting period, preliminary results of the estimation program checkout was presented to NASA technical personnel.

Equations for estimating stand establishment, release, and thinning costs in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Jeffrey T. Olson; Allen L. Lundgren; Dietmar Rose

1978-01-01

Equations for estimating project costs for certain silvicultural treatments in the Lake States have been developed from project records of public forests. Treatments include machine site preparation, hand planting, aerial spraying, prescribed burning, manual release, and thinning.

Estimation of Hidden State Variables of the Intracranial System Using Constrained Nonlinear Kalman Filters

PubMed Central

Nenov, Valeriy; Bergsneider, Marvin; Glenn, Thomas C.; Vespa, Paul; Martin, Neil

2007-01-01

Impeded by the rigid skull, assessment of physiological variables of the intracranial system is difficult. A hidden state estimation approach is used in the present work to facilitate the estimation of unobserved variables from available clinical measurements including intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV). The estimation algorithm is based on a modified nonlinear intracranial mathematical model, whose parameters are first identified in an offline stage using a nonlinear optimization paradigm. Following the offline stage, an online filtering process is performed using a nonlinear Kalman filter (KF)-like state estimator that is equipped with a new way of deriving the Kalman gain satisfying the physiological constraints on the state variables. The proposed method is then validated by comparing different state estimation methods and input/output (I/O) configurations using simulated data. It is also applied to a set of CBFV, ICP and arterial blood pressure (ABP) signal segments from brain injury patients. The results indicated that the proposed constrained nonlinear KF achieved the best performance among the evaluated state estimators and that the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has ICP as the measured output can potentially be used to estimate CBFV continuously. Finally, the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has both ICP and CBFV as outputs can potentially estimate the lumped cerebral arterial radii, which are not measurable in a typical clinical environment. PMID:17281533

An Estimate of Avian Mortality at Communication Towers in the United States and Canada

PubMed Central

Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G.; Sullivan, Lauren M.; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A.; Avery, Michael L.; Crawford, Robert L.; Manville, Albert M.; Travis, Emilie R.; Drake, David

2012-01-01

Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action. PMID:22558082

An estimate of avian mortality at communication towers in the United States and Canada.

PubMed

Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G; Sullivan, Lauren M; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A; Avery, Michael L; Crawford, Robert L; Manville, Albert M; Travis, Emilie R; Drake, David

2012-01-01

Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action.

Establishment of a center of excellence for applied mathematical and statistical research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, W. A.; Gray, H. L.

1983-01-01

The state of the art was assessed with regards to efforts in support of the crop production estimation problem and alternative generic proportion estimation techniques were investigated. Topics covered include modeling the greeness profile (Badhwarmos model), parameter estimation using mixture models such as CLASSY, and minimum distance estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. Approaches to the problem of obtaining proportion estimates when the underlying distributions are asymmetric are examined including the properties of Weibull distribution.

Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Parameters in Nonlinear State-Space Models of Biochemical Networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiaodian; Jin, Li; Xiong, Momiao

2008-01-01

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks. PMID:19018286

Method for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Livestock in the United States, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelace, John K.

2009-01-01

Livestock water use includes ground water and surface water associated with livestock watering, feedlots, dairy operations, and other on-farm needs. The water may be used for drinking, cooling, sanitation, waste disposal, and other needs related to the animals. Estimates of water withdrawals for livestock are needed for water planning and management. This report documents a method used to estimate withdrawals of fresh ground water and surface water for livestock in 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Categories of livestock included dairy cattle, beef and other cattle, hogs and pigs, laying hens, broilers and other chickens, turkeys, sheep and lambs, all goats, and horses (including ponies, mules, burros, and donkeys). Use of the method described in this report could result in more consistent water-withdrawal estimates for livestock that can be used by water managers and planners to determine water needs and trends across the United States. Water withdrawals for livestock in 2005 were estimated by using water-use coefficients, in gallons per head per day for each animal type, and livestock-population data. Coefficients for various livestock for most States were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey water-use program personnel or U.S. Geological Survey water-use publications. When no coefficient was available for an animal type in a State, the median value of reported coefficients for that animal was used. Livestock-population data were provided by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. County estimates were further divided into ground-water and surface-water withdrawals for each county and county equivalent. County totals from 2005 were compared to county totals from 1995 and 2000. Large deviations from 1995 or 2000 livestock withdrawal estimates were investigated and generally were due to comparison with reported withdrawals, differences in estimation techniques, differences in livestock coefficients, or use of livestock-population data from different sources. The results of this study were distributed to U.S. Geological Survey water-use program personnel in each State during 2007. Water-use program personnel are required to submit estimated withdrawals for all categories of use in their States to the National Water-Use Information Program for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. Water-use program personnel had the option of submitting these estimates, a modified version of these estimates, or their own set of estimates or reported data. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the method described in this report are not presented herein to avoid potential inconsistencies with estimated withdrawals for livestock that will be presented in the national report, as different methods used by water-use personnel may result in different withdrawal estimates. Estimated withdrawals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of data for individual livestock operations.

Quasi-Newton methods for parameter estimation in functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brewer, Dennis W.

1988-01-01

A state-space approach to parameter estimation in linear functional differential equations is developed using the theory of linear evolution equations. A locally convergent quasi-Newton type algorithm is applied to distributed systems with particular emphasis on parameters that induce unbounded perturbations of the state. The algorithm is computationally implemented on several functional differential equations, including coefficient and delay estimation in linear delay-differential equations.

Estimated Losses Caused by Wood Products Insects During 1970 for Single-Family Dwellings in 11 Southern States

Treesearch

Lonnie H. Williams; Richard V. Smythe

1979-01-01

In 1970, owners of single-family dwellings in 11 southern States spent an estimated $143 million (1976 dollars) to prevent and control subterranean termites and wood-destroying beetles. Losses incorporated into this estimate include: $79.4 million for corrective or remedial termite treatments, $13.8 million for preventive or pretreatment of termites, $12.9 million for...

31 CFR 205.24 - How are accurate estimates maintained?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... EFFICIENT FEDERAL-STATE FUNDS TRANSFERS Rules Applicable to Federal Assistance Programs Included in a... funding technique provisions in the Treasury-State agreement or take other mutually agreed upon corrective... funds to be transferred under the Federal assistance program or program component to which an estimate...

Online Estimation of Model Parameters of Lithium-Ion Battery Using the Cubature Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Yong; Yan, Rusheng; Tian, Jindong; Zhou, Shijie; Hu, Chao

2017-11-01

Online estimation of state variables, including state-of-charge (SOC), state-of-energy (SOE) and state-of-health (SOH) is greatly crucial for the operation safety of lithium-ion battery. In order to improve estimation accuracy of these state variables, a precise battery model needs to be established. As the lithium-ion battery is a nonlinear time-varying system, the model parameters significantly vary with many factors, such as ambient temperature, discharge rate and depth of discharge, etc. This paper presents an online estimation method of model parameters for lithium-ion battery based on the cubature Kalman filter. The commonly used first-order resistor-capacitor equivalent circuit model is selected as the battery model, based on which the model parameters are estimated online. Experimental results show that the presented method can accurately track the parameters variation at different scenarios.

A General Simulator Using State Estimation for a Space Tug Navigation System. [computerized simulation, orbital position estimation and flight mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boland, J. S., III

1975-01-01

A general simulation program is presented (GSP) involving nonlinear state estimation for space vehicle flight navigation systems. A complete explanation of the iterative guidance mode guidance law, derivation of the dynamics, coordinate frames, and state estimation routines are given so as to fully clarify the assumptions and approximations involved so that simulation results can be placed in their proper perspective. A complete set of computer acronyms and their definitions as well as explanations of the subroutines used in the GSP simulator are included. To facilitate input/output, a complete set of compatable numbers, with units, are included to aid in data development. Format specifications, output data phrase meanings and purposes, and computer card data input are clearly spelled out. A large number of simulation and analytical studies were used to determine the validity of the simulator itself as well as various data runs.

State observer for synchronous motors

DOEpatents

Lang, Jeffrey H.

1994-03-22

A state observer driven by measurements of phase voltages and currents for estimating the angular orientation of a rotor of a synchronous motor such as a variable reluctance motor (VRM). Phase voltages and currents are detected and serve as inputs to a state observer. The state observer includes a mathematical model of the electromechanical operation of the synchronous motor. The characteristics of the state observer are selected so that the observer estimates converge to the actual rotor angular orientation and velocity, winding phase flux linkages or currents.

State estimation improves prospects for ocean research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stammer, Detlef; Wunsch, C.; Fukumori, I.; Marshall, J.

Rigorous global ocean state estimation methods can now be used to produce dynamically consistent time-varying model/data syntheses, the results of which are being used to study a variety of important scientific problems. Figure 1 shows a schematic of a complete ocean observing and synthesis system that includes global observations and state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models (OGCM) run on modern computer platforms. A global observing system is described in detail in Smith and Koblinsky [2001],and the present status of ocean modeling and anticipated improvements are addressed by Griffies et al. [2001]. Here, the focus is on the third component of state estimation: the synthesis of the observations and a model into a unified, dynamically consistent estimate.

EIA Household Energy Use Data Now Includes Detail on 16 States

EIA Publications

2011-01-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is releasing new benchmark estimates for home energy use for the year 2009 that include detailed data for 16 states, 12 more than in past EIA residential energy surveys.

Comparison study on disturbance estimation techniques in precise slow motion control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, S.; Nagamune, R.; Altintas, Y.; Fan, D.; Zhang, Z.

2010-08-01

Precise low speed motion control is important for the industrial applications of both micro-milling machine tool feed drives and electro-optical tracking servo systems. It calls for precise position and instantaneous velocity measurement and disturbance, which involves direct drive motor force ripple, guide way friction and cutting force etc., estimation. This paper presents a comparison study on dynamic response and noise rejection performance of three existing disturbance estimation techniques, including the time-delayed estimators, the state augmented Kalman Filters and the conventional disturbance observers. The design technique essentials of these three disturbance estimators are introduced. For designing time-delayed estimators, it is proposed to substitute Kalman Filter for Luenberger state observer to improve noise suppression performance. The results show that the noise rejection performances of the state augmented Kalman Filters and the time-delayed estimators are much better than the conventional disturbance observers. These two estimators can give not only the estimation of the disturbance but also the low noise level estimations of position and instantaneous velocity. The bandwidth of the state augmented Kalman Filters is wider than the time-delayed estimators. In addition, the state augmented Kalman Filters can give unbiased estimations of the slow varying disturbance and the instantaneous velocity, while the time-delayed estimators can not. The simulation and experiment conducted on X axis of a 2.5-axis prototype micro milling machine are provided.

Real-Time Radar-Based Tracking and State Estimation of Multiple Non-Conformant Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Brandon; Arnett, Timothy; Macmann, Owen; Kumar, Manish

2017-01-01

In this study, a novel solution for automated tracking of multiple unknown aircraft is proposed. Many current methods use transponders to self-report state information and augment track identification. While conformant aircraft typically report transponder information to alert surrounding aircraft of its state, vehicles may exist in the airspace that are non-compliant and need to be accurately tracked using alternative methods. In this study, a multi-agent tracking solution is presented that solely utilizes primary surveillance radar data to estimate aircraft state information. Main research challenges include state estimation, track management, data association, and establishing persistent track validity. In an effort to realize these challenges, techniques such as Maximum a Posteriori estimation, Kalman filtering, degree of membership data association, and Nearest Neighbor Spanning Tree clustering are implemented for this application.

Wood fuel potential from harvested areas in the eastern United States.

Treesearch

Eugene M. Carpenter

1980-01-01

Estimates amount of wood fiber that could be available for fuel from forest residues on harvested areas in the eastern United States. Includes a key to resource data published by the USDA Forest Service and factors for estimating amounts of cull, bark, tops, and limbs from inventory and product output tabulations.

Expanding Local Cancer Clinical Trial Options: Analysis of the Economic Impact of the Midwest Cancer Alliance in Kansas.

PubMed

Gafford, J Atlee; Gurley-Calvez, Tami; Krebill, Hope; Lai, Sue Min; Christiadi; Doolittle, Gary C

2017-09-01

Patients benefit from receiving cancer treatment closer to home when possible and at high-volume regional centers when specialized care is required. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the economic impact of retaining more patients in-state for cancer clinical trials and care, which might offset some of the costs of establishing broader cancer trial and treatment networks. Kansas Cancer Registry data were used to estimate the number of patients retained in-state for cancer care following the expansion of local cancer clinical trial options through the Midwest Cancer Alliance based at the University of Kansas Medical Center. The 2014 economic impact of this enhanced local clinical trial network was estimated in four parts: Medical spending was estimated on the basis of National Cancer Institute cost-of-care estimates. Household travel cost savings were estimated as the difference between in-state and out-of-state travel costs. Trial-related grant income was calculated from administrative records. Indirect and induced economic benefits to the state were estimated using an economic impact model. The authors estimated that the enhanced local cancer clinical trial network resulted in approximately $6.9 million in additional economic activity in the state in 2014, or $362,000 per patient retained in-state. This estimate includes $3.6 million in direct spending and $3.3 million in indirect economic activity. The enhanced trial network also resulted in 45 additional jobs. Retaining patients in-state for cancer care and clinical trial participation allows patients to remain closer to home for care and enhances the state economy.

Redrawing the US Obesity Landscape: Bias-Corrected Estimates of State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence

PubMed Central

Ward, Zachary J.; Long, Michael W.; Resch, Stephen C.; Gortmaker, Steven L.; Cradock, Angie L.; Giles, Catherine; Hsiao, Amber; Wang, Y. Claire

2016-01-01

Background State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. Methods Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods. Results Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%–in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps. Conclusions Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:26954566

An open source framework for tracking and state estimation ('Stone Soup')

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Paul A.; Barr, Jordi; Balaji, Bhashyam; White, Kruger

2017-05-01

The ability to detect and unambiguously follow all moving entities in a state-space is important in multiple domains both in defence (e.g. air surveillance, maritime situational awareness, ground moving target indication) and the civil sphere (e.g. astronomy, biology, epidemiology, dispersion modelling). However, tracking and state estimation researchers and practitioners have difficulties recreating state-of-the-art algorithms in order to benchmark their own work. Furthermore, system developers need to assess which algorithms meet operational requirements objectively and exhaustively rather than intuitively or driven by personal favourites. We have therefore commenced the development of a collaborative initiative to create an open source framework for production, demonstration and evaluation of Tracking and State Estimation algorithms. The initiative will develop a (MIT-licensed) software platform for researchers and practitioners to test, verify and benchmark a variety of multi-sensor and multi-object state estimation algorithms. The initiative is supported by four defence laboratories, who will contribute to the development effort for the framework. The tracking and state estimation community will derive significant benefits from this work, including: access to repositories of verified and validated tracking and state estimation algorithms, a framework for the evaluation of multiple algorithms, standardisation of interfaces and access to challenging data sets. Keywords: Tracking,

An Investigation of the Standard Errors of Expected A Posteriori Ability Estimates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Ayala, R. J.; And Others

Expected a posteriori has a number of advantages over maximum likelihood estimation or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation methods. These include ability estimates (thetas) for all response patterns, less regression towards the mean than MAP ability estimates, and a lower average squared error. R. D. Bock and R. J. Mislevy (1982) state that the…

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mook, D. Joseph

1988-01-01

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

Platinum recycling in the United States in 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilliard, Henry E.

2001-01-01

In the United States, catalytic converters are the major source of secondary platinum for recycling. Other sources of platinum scrap include reforming and chemical process catalysts. The glass industry is a small but significant source of platinum scrap. In North America, it has been estimated that in 1998 more than 20,000 kilograms per year of platinum-group metals from automobile catalysts were available for recycling. In 1998, an estimated 7,690 kilograms of platinum were recycled in the United States. U.S. recycling efficiency was calculated to have been 76 percent in 1998; the recycling rate was estimated at 16 percent.

Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics.

PubMed

Hong, Jonathan; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

2018-01-13

Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer's convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model.

Sub-Second Parallel State Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Glaesemann, Kurt R.

This report describes the performance of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) sub-second parallel state estimation (PSE) tool using the utility data from the Bonneville Power Administrative (BPA) and discusses the benefits of the fast computational speed for power system applications. The test data were provided by BPA. They are two-days’ worth of hourly snapshots that include power system data and measurement sets in a commercial tool format. These data are extracted out from the commercial tool box and fed into the PSE tool. With the help of advanced solvers, the PSE tool is able to solve each BPA hourly statemore » estimation problem within one second, which is more than 10 times faster than today’s commercial tool. This improved computational performance can help increase the reliability value of state estimation in many aspects: (1) the shorter the time required for execution of state estimation, the more time remains for operators to take appropriate actions, and/or to apply automatic or manual corrective control actions. This increases the chances of arresting or mitigating the impact of cascading failures; (2) the SE can be executed multiple times within time allowance. Therefore, the robustness of SE can be enhanced by repeating the execution of the SE with adaptive adjustments, including removing bad data and/or adjusting different initial conditions to compute a better estimate within the same time as a traditional state estimator’s single estimate. There are other benefits with the sub-second SE, such as that the PSE results can potentially be used in local and/or wide-area automatic corrective control actions that are currently dependent on raw measurements to minimize the impact of bad measurements, and provides opportunities to enhance the power grid reliability and efficiency. PSE also can enable other advanced tools that rely on SE outputs and could be used to further improve operators’ actions and automated controls to mitigate effects of severe events on the grid. The power grid continues to grow and the number of measurements is increasing at an accelerated rate due to the variety of smart grid devices being introduced. A parallel state estimation implementation will have better performance than traditional, sequential state estimation by utilizing the power of high performance computing (HPC). This increased performance positions parallel state estimators as valuable tools for operating the increasingly more complex power grid.« less

15 CFR 2006.1 - Information to be included in petition.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... property right, or foreign direct investment matter for which the rights of the United States under the... nature of any foreign direct investment proposed by the United States person, including estimates of... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Information to be included in petition...

Expanding Local Cancer Clinical Trial Options: Analysis of the Economic Impact of the Midwest Cancer Alliance in Kansas

PubMed Central

Gafford, J. Atlee; Krebill, Hope; Lai, Sue Min; Christiadi; Doolittle, Gary C.

2017-01-01

Purpose Patients benefit from receiving cancer treatment closer to home when possible and at high-volume regional centers when specialized care is required. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the economic impact of retaining more patients in-state for cancer clinical trials and care, which might offset some of the costs of establishing broader cancer trial and treatment networks. Method Kansas Cancer Registry data were used to estimate the number of patients retained in-state for cancer care following the expansion of local cancer clinical trial options through the Midwest Cancer Alliance based at the University of Kansas Medical Center. The 2014 economic impact of this enhanced local clinical trial network was estimated in four parts: Medical spending was estimated on the basis of National Cancer Institute cost-of-care estimates. Household travel cost savings were estimated as the difference between in-state and out-of-state travel costs. Trial-related grant income was calculated from administrative records. Indirect and induced economic benefits to the state were estimated using an economic impact model. Results The authors estimated that the enhanced local cancer clinical trial network resulted in approximately $6.9 million in additional economic activity in the state in 2014, or $362,000 per patient retained in-state. This estimate includes $3.6 million in direct spending and $3.3 million in indirect economic activity. The enhanced trial network also resulted in 45 additional jobs. Conclusions Retaining patients in-state for cancer care and clinical trial participation allows patients to remain closer to home for care and enhances the state economy. PMID:28253204

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Montana based on data through 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1986-01-01

Equations are presented for estimating flood magnitudes for ungaged sites in Montana based on data through 1983. The State was divided into eight regions based on hydrologic conditions, and separate multiple regression equations were developed for each region. These equations relate annual flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and are applicable only to natural flow streams. In three of the regions, equations also were developed relating flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements. The standard errors of estimate for an exceedance probability of 1% ranged from 39% to 87%. Techniques are described for estimating annual flood magnitude and flood frequency information at ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites on the same stream. Included are curves relating flood frequency information to drainage area for eight major streams in the State. Maximum known flood magnitudes in Montana are compared with estimated 1 %-chance flood magnitudes and with maximum known floods in the United States. Values of flood magnitudes for selected exceedance probabilities and values of significant basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements for all gaging stations used in the analysis are tabulated. Included are 375 stations in Montana and 28 nearby stations in Canada and adjoining States. (Author 's abstract)

Isonymy structure of Sucre and Táchira, two Venezuelan states.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Larralde, A; Barrai, I

1997-10-01

The isonymy structure of two Venezuelan states, Sucre and Táchira, is described using the surnames of the Register of Electors updated in 1991. The frequency distribution of surnames pooled together by sex was obtained for the 57 counties of Sucre and the 52 counties of Táchira, based on total population sizes of 158,705 and 160,690 individuals, respectively. The coefficient of consanguinity resulting from random isonymy (phi ii), Karlin and McGregor's ni (identical to v), and the proportion of the population included in surnames represented only once (estimator A) and in the seven most frequent surnames (estimator B) were calculated for each county. RST, a measure of microdifferentiation, was estimated for each state. The Euclidean distance between pairs of counties within states was calculated together with the corresponding geographic distances. The correlations between their logarithmic transformations were significant in both cases, indicating differentiation of surnames by distance. Dendrograms based on the Euclidean distance matrix were constructed. From them a first approximation of the effect of internal migration within states was obtained. Ninety-six percent of the coefficient of consanguinity resulting from random isonymy is determined by the proportion of the population included in the seven most frequent surnames, whereas between 72% and 88% of Karlin and McGregor's ni for Sucre and Táchira, respectively, is determined by the proportion of population included in surnames represented only once. Surnames with generalized and with focal distribution were identified for both states, to be used as possible indicators of the geographic origin of their carriers. Our results indicate that Táchira's counties, on average, tend to be more isolated than Sucre's counties, as measured by RST, estimator B, and phi ii. Comparisons with the results obtained for other. Venezuelan states and other non-Venezuelan populations are also given.

Meeting the Need for State-Level Estimates of Health Insurance Coverage: Use of State and Federal Survey Data

PubMed Central

Blewett, Lynn A; Davern, Michael

2006-01-01

Objective Critically review estimates of health insurance coverage available from different sources, including the federal government, state survey initiatives, and foundation-sponsored surveys for use in state policy research. Study Setting and Design We review the surveys in an attempt to flesh out the current weaknesses of survey data for state policy uses. The main data sources assessed in this analysis are federal government surveys (such as the Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement, and the National Health Interview Survey), foundation-supported surveys (National Survey of America's Families, and the Community Tracking Survey), and state-sponsored surveys. Principal Findings Despite information on estimates of health insurance coverage from six federal surveys, states find the data lacking for state policy purposes. We document the need for state representative data on the uninsured and the recent history of state data collection efforts spurred in part by the Health Resources Services Administration State Planning Grant program. We assess the state estimates of uninsurance from the Current Population Survey and make recommendations for a new consolidated federal survey with better state representative data. Conclusions We think there are several options to consider for coordinating a federal and state data collection strategy to inform state and national policy on coverage and access. PMID:16704521

Dynamic State Estimation for Multi-Machine Power System by Unscented Kalman Filter With Enhanced Numerical Stability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qi, Junjian; Sun, Kai; Wang, Jianhui

In this paper, in order to enhance the numerical stability of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) used for power system dynamic state estimation, a new UKF with guaranteed positive semidifinite estimation error covariance (UKFGPS) is proposed and compared with five existing approaches, including UKFschol, UKF-kappa, UKFmodified, UKF-Delta Q, and the squareroot UKF (SRUKF). These methods and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) are tested by performing dynamic state estimation on WSCC 3-machine 9-bus system and NPCC 48-machine 140-bus system. For WSCC system, all methods obtain good estimates. However, for NPCC system, both EKF and the classic UKF fail. It is foundmore » that UKFschol, UKF-kappa, and UKF-Delta Q do not work well in some estimations while UKFGPS works well in most cases. UKFmodified and SRUKF can always work well, indicating their better scalability mainly due to the enhanced numerical stability.« less

Empirical Bayes estimation of undercount in the decennial census.

PubMed

Cressie, N

1989-12-01

Empirical Bayes methods are used to estimate the extent of the undercount at the local level in the 1980 U.S. census. "Grouping of like subareas from areas such as states, counties, and so on into strata is a useful way of reducing the variance of undercount estimators. By modeling the subareas within a stratum to have a common mean and variances inversely proportional to their census counts, and by taking into account sampling of the areas (e.g., by dual-system estimation), empirical Bayes estimators that compromise between the (weighted) stratum average and the sample value can be constructed. The amount of compromise is shown to depend on the relative importance of stratum variance to sampling variance. These estimators are evaluated at the state level (51 states, including Washington, D.C.) and stratified on race/ethnicity (3 strata) using data from the 1980 postenumeration survey (PEP 3-8, for the noninstitutional population)." excerpt

State energy price and expenditure report 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

Unitary Transformations in 3 D Vector Representation of Qutrit States

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-12

Representation of Qutrit States Vinod K Mishra Computational and Information Sciences Directorate, ARL Approved for public... information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and...maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection information . Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect

A model of forest floor carbon mass for United States forest types

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2002-01-01

Includes a large set of published values of forest floor mass and develop large-scale estimates of carbon mass according to region and forest type. Estimates of average forest floor carbon mass per hectare of forest applied to a 1997 summary forest inventory, sum to 4.5 Gt carbon stored in forests of the 48 contiguous United States.

Hyper-X Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Blanchard, RobertC.; Kirsch, Michael; Toniolo, Matthew D.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X{43A/Hyper{X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of ight test data. Extended Kalman ltering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the ltering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the nal value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from ight data.

Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

2018-01-01

Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer’s convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model. PMID:29342855

LINKING REGIONAL AEROSOL EMISSION CHANGES WITH MULTIPLE IMPACT MEASURES THROUGH DIRECT AND CLOUD-RELATED FORCING ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

Outputs expected from this project include improved confidence in direct radiative forcing and cloud radiative forcing, particularly over the United States and with regard to United States emissions publicly available, documented data sets including emission inventories of siz...

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) space transportation cost analysis and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

A picture of Space Power Systems space transportation costs at the present time is given with respect to accuracy as stated, reasonableness of the methods used, assumptions made, and uncertainty associated with the estimates. The approach used consists of examining space transportation costs from several perspectives to perform a variety of sensitivity analyses or reviews and examine the findings in terms of internal consistency and external comparison with analogous systems. These approaches are summarized as a theoretical and historical review including a review of stated and unstated assumptions used to derive the costs, and a performance or technical review. These reviews cover the overall transportation program as well as the individual vehicles proposed. The review of overall cost assumptions is the principal means used for estimating the cost uncertainty derived. The cost estimates used as the best current estimate are included.

A brief review on key technologies in the battery management system of electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kailong; Li, Kang; Peng, Qiao; Zhang, Cheng

2018-04-01

Batteries have been widely applied in many high-power applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles, where a suitable battery management system (BMS) is vital in ensuring safe and reliable operation of batteries. This paper aims to give a brief review on several key technologies of BMS, including battery modelling, state estimation and battery charging. First, popular battery types used in EVs are surveyed, followed by the introduction of key technologies used in BMS. Various battery models, including the electric model, thermal model and coupled electro-thermal model are reviewed. Then, battery state estimations for the state of charge, state of health and internal temperature are comprehensively surveyed. Finally, several key and traditional battery charging approaches with associated optimization methods are discussed.

Simultaneous Observation of Hybrid States for Cyber-Physical Systems: A Case Study of Electric Vehicle Powertrain.

PubMed

Lv, Chen; Liu, Yahui; Hu, Xiaosong; Guo, Hongyan; Cao, Dongpu; Wang, Fei-Yue

2017-08-22

As a typical cyber-physical system (CPS), electrified vehicle becomes a hot research topic due to its high efficiency and low emissions. In order to develop advanced electric powertrains, accurate estimations of the unmeasurable hybrid states, including discrete backlash nonlinearity and continuous half-shaft torque, are of great importance. In this paper, a novel estimation algorithm for simultaneously identifying the backlash position and half-shaft torque of an electric powertrain is proposed using a hybrid system approach. System models, including the electric powertrain and vehicle dynamics models, are established considering the drivetrain backlash and flexibility, and also calibrated and validated using vehicle road testing data. Based on the developed system models, the powertrain behavior is represented using hybrid automata according to the piecewise affine property of the backlash dynamics. A hybrid-state observer, which is comprised of a discrete-state observer and a continuous-state observer, is designed for the simultaneous estimation of the backlash position and half-shaft torque. In order to guarantee the stability and reachability, the convergence property of the proposed observer is investigated. The proposed observer are validated under highly dynamical transitions of vehicle states. The validation results demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid-state observer.

Evaluating State Principal Evaluation Plans across the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Edward J.; Hollingworth, Liz; Liu, Jing

2015-01-01

Recent federal legislation has created strong incentives for states to adopt principal evaluation systems, many of which include new measures of principal effectiveness such as estimates of student growth and changes in school climate. Yet, there has been little research on principal evaluation systems and no state-by-state analysis of the…

A brief review of the estimated economic burden of sexually transmitted diseases in the United States: inflation-adjusted updates of previously published cost studies.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Tao, Guoyu; Johnson, Ana P; Kent, Charlotte K

2011-10-01

We conducted a literature review of studies of the economic burden of sexually transmitted diseases in the United States. The annual direct medical cost of sexually transmitted diseases (including human immunodeficiency virus) has been estimated to be $16.9 billion (range: $13.9-$23.0 billion) in 2010 US dollars.

Variable input observer for state estimation of high-rate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jonathan; Cao, Liang; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob

2017-04-01

High-rate systems operating in the 10 μs to 10 ms timescale are likely to experience damaging effects due to rapid environmental changes (e.g., turbulence, ballistic impact). Some of these systems could benefit from real-time state estimation to enable their full potential. Examples of such systems include blast mitigation strategies, automotive airbag technologies, and hypersonic vehicles. Particular challenges in high-rate state estimation include: 1) complex time varying nonlinearities of system (e.g. noise, uncertainty, and disturbance); 2) rapid environmental changes; 3) requirement of high convergence rate. Here, we propose using a Variable Input Observer (VIO) concept to vary the input space as the event unfolds. When systems experience high-rate dynamics, rapid changes in the system occur. To investigate the VIO's potential, a VIO-based neuro-observer is constructed and studied using experimental data collected from a laboratory impact test. Results demonstrate that the input space is unique to different impact conditions, and that adjusting the input space throughout the dynamic event produces better estimations than using a traditional fixed input space strategy.

33 CFR Appendix A to Part 221 - Part 16-Procedures Relating to Takeover and Relicensing of Licensed Projects

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... include a statement showing the amount which licensee estimates would be payable if the project were to be... Federal Power Act. This statement shall include estimates of: (1) Fair value; (2) net investment; and (3... rates charged its customers, the licensee's financial condition, and taxes collected by local, State...

Mitigating climate change through afforestation: new cost estimates for the United States

Treesearch

Anne Sofie Elberg Nielsen; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

2014-01-01

We provide new cost estimates for carbon sequestration through afforestation in the U.S. We extend existing studies of carbon sequestration costs in several important ways, while ensuring the transparency of our approach. Our costs estimates have five distinguishing features: (1) we estimate costs for each county in the contiguous U.S., (2) we include afforestation of...

Sensor Data Fusion for Body State Estimation in a Bipedal Robot and Its Feedback Control Application for Stable Walking

PubMed Central

Chen, Ching-Pei; Chen, Jing-Yi; Huang, Chun-Kai; Lu, Jau-Ching; Lin, Pei-Chun

2015-01-01

We report on a sensor data fusion algorithm via an extended Kalman filter for estimating the spatial motion of a bipedal robot. Through fusing the sensory information from joint encoders, a 6-axis inertial measurement unit and a 2-axis inclinometer, the robot’s body state at a specific fixed position can be yielded. This position is also equal to the CoM when the robot is in the standing posture suggested by the detailed CAD model of the robot. In addition, this body state is further utilized to provide sensory information for feedback control on a bipedal robot with walking gait. The overall control strategy includes the proposed body state estimator as well as the damping controller, which regulates the body position state of the robot in real-time based on instant and historical position tracking errors. Moreover, a posture corrector for reducing unwanted torque during motion is addressed. The body state estimator and the feedback control structure are implemented in a child-size bipedal robot and the performance is experimentally evaluated. PMID:25734644

Mean-square state and parameter estimation for stochastic linear systems with Gaussian and Poisson noises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basin, M.; Maldonado, J. J.; Zendejo, O.

2016-07-01

This paper proposes new mean-square filter and parameter estimator design for linear stochastic systems with unknown parameters over linear observations, where unknown parameters are considered as combinations of Gaussian and Poisson white noises. The problem is treated by reducing the original problem to a filtering problem for an extended state vector that includes parameters as additional states, modelled as combinations of independent Gaussian and Poisson processes. The solution to this filtering problem is based on the mean-square filtering equations for incompletely polynomial states confused with Gaussian and Poisson noises over linear observations. The resulting mean-square filter serves as an identifier for the unknown parameters. Finally, a simulation example shows effectiveness of the proposed mean-square filter and parameter estimator.

Improving control and estimation for distributed parameter systems utilizing mobile actuator-sensor network.

PubMed

Mu, Wenying; Cui, Baotong; Li, Wen; Jiang, Zhengxian

2014-07-01

This paper proposes a scheme for non-collocated moving actuating and sensing devices which is unitized for improving performance in distributed parameter systems. By Lyapunov stability theorem, each moving actuator/sensor agent velocity is obtained. To enhance state estimation of a spatially distributes process, two kinds of filters with consensus terms which penalize the disagreement of the estimates are considered. Both filters can result in the well-posedness of the collective dynamics of state errors and can converge to the plant state. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the effectiveness of such a moving actuator-sensor network in enhancing system performance and the consensus filters converge faster to the plant state when consensus terms are included. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survey of Crop Losses in Response to Phytoparasitic Nematodes in the United States for 1994

PubMed Central

Koenning, S. R.; Overstreet, C.; Noling, J. W.; Donald, P. A.; Becker, J. O.; Fortnum, B. A.

1999-01-01

Previous reports of crop losses to plant-parasitic nematodes have relied on published results of survey data based on certain commodities, including tobacco, peanuts, cotton, and soybean. Reports on crop-loss assessment by land-grant universities and many commodity groups generally are no longer available, with the exception of the University of Georgia, the Beltwide Cotton Conference, and selected groups concerned with soybean. The Society of Nematologists Extension Committee contacted extension personnel in 49 U.S. states for information on estimated crop losses caused by plant-parasitic nematodes in major crops for the year 1994. Included in this paper are survey results from 35 states on various crops including corn, cotton, soybean, peanut, wheat, rice, sugarcane, sorghum, tobacco, numerous vegetable crops, fruit and nut crops, and golf greens. The data are reported systematically by state and include the estimated loss, hectarage of production, source of information, nematode species or taxon when available, and crop value. The major genera of phytoparasitic nematodes reported to cause crop losses were Heterodera, Hoplolaimus, Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, Rotylenchulus, and Xiphinema. PMID:19270925

Survey of crop losses in response to phytoparasitic nematodes in the United States for 1994.

PubMed

Koenning, S R; Overstreet, C; Noling, J W; Donald, P A; Becker, J O; Fortnum, B A

1999-12-01

Previous reports of crop losses to plant-parasitic nematodes have relied on published results of survey data based on certain commodities, including tobacco, peanuts, cotton, and soybean. Reports on crop-loss assessment by land-grant universities and many commodity groups generally are no longer available, with the exception of the University of Georgia, the Beltwide Cotton Conference, and selected groups concerned with soybean. The Society of Nematologists Extension Committee contacted extension personnel in 49 U.S. states for information on estimated crop losses caused by plant-parasitic nematodes in major crops for the year 1994. Included in this paper are survey results from 35 states on various crops including corn, cotton, soybean, peanut, wheat, rice, sugarcane, sorghum, tobacco, numerous vegetable crops, fruit and nut crops, and golf greens. The data are reported systematically by state and include the estimated loss, hectarage of production, source of information, nematode species or taxon when available, and crop value. The major genera of phytoparasitic nematodes reported to cause crop losses were Heterodera, Hoplolaimus, Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, Rotylenchulus, and Xiphinema.

Reconstructing the hidden states in time course data of stochastic models.

PubMed

Zimmer, Christoph

2015-11-01

Parameter estimation is central for analyzing models in Systems Biology. The relevance of stochastic modeling in the field is increasing. Therefore, the need for tailored parameter estimation techniques is increasing as well. Challenges for parameter estimation are partial observability, measurement noise, and the computational complexity arising from the dimension of the parameter space. This article extends the multiple shooting for stochastic systems' method, developed for inference in intrinsic stochastic systems. The treatment of extrinsic noise and the estimation of the unobserved states is improved, by taking into account the correlation between unobserved and observed species. This article demonstrates the power of the method on different scenarios of a Lotka-Volterra model, including cases in which the prey population dies out or explodes, and a Calcium oscillation system. Besides showing how the new extension improves the accuracy of the parameter estimates, this article analyzes the accuracy of the state estimates. In contrast to previous approaches, the new approach is well able to estimate states and parameters for all the scenarios. As it does not need stochastic simulations, it is of the same order of speed as conventional least squares parameter estimation methods with respect to computational time. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Reduced Dimension Static, Linearized Kalman Filter and Smoother

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.

1995-01-01

An approximate Kalman filter and smoother, based on approximations of the state estimation error covariance matrix, is described. Approximations include a reduction of the effective state dimension, use of a static asymptotic error limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. Examples of use come from TOPEX/POSEIDON.

Estimating parameters of hidden Markov models based on marked individuals: use of robust design data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; White, Gary C.; Hines, James E.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Yoshizaki, Jun

2012-01-01

Development and use of multistate mark-recapture models, which provide estimates of parameters of Markov processes in the face of imperfect detection, have become common over the last twenty years. Recently, estimating parameters of hidden Markov models, where the state of an individual can be uncertain even when it is detected, has received attention. Previous work has shown that ignoring state uncertainty biases estimates of survival and state transition probabilities, thereby reducing the power to detect effects. Efforts to adjust for state uncertainty have included special cases and a general framework for a single sample per period of interest. We provide a flexible framework for adjusting for state uncertainty in multistate models, while utilizing multiple sampling occasions per period of interest to increase precision and remove parameter redundancy. These models also produce direct estimates of state structure for each primary period, even for the case where there is just one sampling occasion. We apply our model to expected value data, and to data from a study of Florida manatees, to provide examples of the improvement in precision due to secondary capture occasions. We also provide user-friendly software to implement these models. This general framework could also be used by practitioners to consider constrained models of particular interest, or model the relationship between within-primary period parameters (e.g., state structure) and between-primary period parameters (e.g., state transition probabilities).

What proportion of cancer deaths in the contemporary United States is attributable to cigarette smoking?

PubMed

Jacobs, Eric J; Newton, Christina C; Carter, Brian D; Feskanich, Diane; Freedman, Neal D; Prentice, Ross L; Flanders, W Dana

2015-03-01

The proportion of cancer deaths in the contemporary United States caused by cigarette smoking (the population attributable fraction [PAF]) is not well documented. The PAF of all cancer deaths due to active cigarette smoking among adults 35 years and older in the United States in 2010 was calculated using age- and sex-specific smoking prevalence from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and age- and sex-specific relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study-II (for ages 35-54 years) and from the Pooled Contemporary Cohort data set (for ages 55 years and older). The PAF for active cigarette smoking was 28.7% when estimated conservatively, including only deaths from the 12 cancers currently formally established as caused by smoking by the US Surgeon General. The PAF was 31.7% when estimated more comprehensively, including excess deaths from all cancers. These estimates do not include additional potential cancer deaths from environmental tobacco smoke or other type of tobacco use such as cigars, pipes, or smokeless tobacco. Cigarette smoking causes a large proportion of cancer deaths in the contemporary United States. Reducing smoking prevalence as rapidly as possible should be a top priority for the US public health efforts to prevent cancer deaths. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population redistribution in Nigeria.

PubMed

Adebayo, A

1984-07-01

One of the major consequences of the reorganization of Nigeria from 4 states into 12 states in 1967 and then into 19 states in the late 1970s was the redistribution of the Nigerian population. Prior to 1967 Nigeria's rural population migrated primarily to the 4 state capitals of Kaduna, Ibadan, Enugu, Benin City and to the federal capital of Lagos. The creation of additional states, each with their own capital, provided new urban environments where migrants from rural areas were afforded opportunities for employment and social mobility. Between 1960-1980, World Bank estimates indicate that 1) population in Nigerian cityes of over 500,000 population increased from 22-57%; 2) the number of cities with a population of 500,000 or more increased from 2 to 9 and 3) the urban population increased from 13-20%. Given Nigeria's estimated population growth rate of 3.6%/year, it is imperative that the goverment continue its decentralization efforts. Tables show 1) population by region based on the 1963 census; 2) estimated population of the 19 state capitals for 1963 and 1975; and 3) estimated population of the areas included in each of the 19 states for 196o, 1977, 1979, and 19819

Application of a mechanistic model as a tool for on-line monitoring of pilot scale filamentous fungal fermentation processes-The importance of evaporation effects.

PubMed

Mears, Lisa; Stocks, Stuart M; Albaek, Mads O; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

2017-03-01

A mechanistic model-based soft sensor is developed and validated for 550L filamentous fungus fermentations operated at Novozymes A/S. The soft sensor is comprised of a parameter estimation block based on a stoichiometric balance, coupled to a dynamic process model. The on-line parameter estimation block models the changing rates of formation of product, biomass, and water, and the rate of consumption of feed using standard, available on-line measurements. This parameter estimation block, is coupled to a mechanistic process model, which solves the current states of biomass, product, substrate, dissolved oxygen and mass, as well as other process parameters including k L a, viscosity and partial pressure of CO 2 . State estimation at this scale requires a robust mass model including evaporation, which is a factor not often considered at smaller scales of operation. The model is developed using a historical data set of 11 batches from the fermentation pilot plant (550L) at Novozymes A/S. The model is then implemented on-line in 550L fermentation processes operated at Novozymes A/S in order to validate the state estimator model on 14 new batches utilizing a new strain. The product concentration in the validation batches was predicted with an average root mean sum of squared error (RMSSE) of 16.6%. In addition, calculation of the Janus coefficient for the validation batches shows a suitably calibrated model. The robustness of the model prediction is assessed with respect to the accuracy of the input data. Parameter estimation uncertainty is also carried out. The application of this on-line state estimator allows for on-line monitoring of pilot scale batches, including real-time estimates of multiple parameters which are not able to be monitored on-line. With successful application of a soft sensor at this scale, this allows for improved process monitoring, as well as opening up further possibilities for on-line control algorithms, utilizing these on-line model outputs. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 589-599. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Solid State Lasers from an Efficiency Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Norman P.

2007-01-01

Solid state lasers have remained a vibrant area of research because several major innovations expanded their capability. Major innovations are presented with emphasis focused on the laser efficiency. A product of efficiencies approach is developed and applied to describe laser performance. Efficiency factors are presented in closed form where practical and energy transfer effects are included where needed. In turn, efficiency factors are used to estimate threshold and slope efficiency, allowing a facile estimate of performance. Spectroscopic, thermal, and mechanical data are provided for common solid state laser materials.

Proportion of Dermatitis Attributed to Work Exposures in the Working Population, United States, 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Ehrlich, Emily; Bunn, Terry; Kanotra, Sarojini; Fussman, Chris; Rosenman, Kenneth D.

2016-01-01

Background The US employer-based surveillance system for work-related health conditions underestimates the prevalence of work-related dermatitis. Objective The authors sought to utilize information from workers to improve the accuracy of prevalence estimates for work-related dermatitis. Methods Three state health departments included questions in the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey designed to ascertain the prevalence of dermatitis in the working population, as well as healthcare experiences, personal perceptions of work-relatedness, and job changes associated with dermatitis. Results The percentage of working respondents who reported receiving a clinician’s opinion that their dermatitis was work-related was between 3.8% and 10.2%. When patients’ perceptions were considered, the work-related dermatitis prevalence estimate increased to between 12.9% and 17.6%. Conclusions Including patients’ perceptions of work-relatedness produced a larger prevalence estimate for work-related dermatitis than the previously published estimate of 5.6%, which included only those cases of dermatitis attributed to work by healthcare professionals. PMID:24619601

Reaeration equations derived from U.S. geological survey database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Flores, H.E.

1999-01-01

Accurate estimation of the reaeration-rate coefficient (K2) is extremely important for waste-load allocation. Currently, available K2 estimation equations generally yield poor estimates when applied to stream conditions different from those for which the equations were derived because they were derived from small databases composed of potentially highly inaccurate measurements. A large data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas methods was compiled from U.S. Geological Survey studies. This compilation included 493 reaches on 166 streams in 23 states. Careful screening to detect and eliminate erroneous measurements reduced the date set to 371 measurements. These measurements were divided into four subgroups on the basis of flow regime (channel control or pool and riffle) and stream scale (discharge greater than or less than 0.556 m3/s). Multiple linear regression in logarithms was applied to relate K2 to 12 stream hydraulic and water-quality characteristics. The resulting best-estimation equations had the form of semiempirical equations that included the rate of energy dissipation and discharge or depth and width as variables. For equation verification, a data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas procedures by other agencies was compiled from the literature. This compilation included 127 reaches on at least 24 streams in at least seven states. The standard error of estimate obtained when applying the developed equations to the U.S. Geological Survey data set ranged from 44 to 61%, whereas the standard error of estimate was 78% when applied to the verification data set.Accurate estimation of the reaeration-rate coefficient (K2) is extremely important for waste-load allocation. Currently, available K2 estimation equations generally yield poor estimates when applied to stream conditions different from those for which the equations were derived because they were derived from small databases composed of potentially highly inaccurate measurements. A large data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas methods was compiled from U.S. Geological Survey studies. This compilation included 493 reaches on 166 streams in 23 states. Careful screening to detect and eliminate erroneous measurements reduced the data set to 371 measurements. These measurements were divided into four subgroups on the basis of flow regime (channel control or pool and riffle) and stream scale (discharge greater than or less than 0.556 m3/s). Multiple linear regression in logarithms was applied to relate K2 to 12 stream hydraulic and water-quality characteristics. The resulting best-estimation equations had the form of semiempirical equations that included the rate of energy dissipation and discharge or depth and width as variables. For equation verification, a data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas procedures by other agencies was compiled from the literature. This compilation included 127 reaches on at least 24 streams in at least seven states. The standard error of estimate obtained when applying the developed equations to the U.S. Geological Survey data set ranged from 44 to 61%, whereas the standard error of estimate was 78% when applied to the verification data set.

Hyper-X Mach 10 Trajectory Reconstruction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Martin, John G.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Thornblom, Mark N.

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X-43A/Hyper-X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of flight test data. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the filtering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the final value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from data obtained during the Mach 10 test flight, which occurred on November 16th 2004.

Annual Program, 1987. Texas State Library.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas State Library, Austin.

This report provides information related to the Texas State Library's fiscal year 1987 Library Services and Construction Act (LSCA) Public Law 84-597, as amended state-administered program. Information is included on: (1) Standard Form 424 for federal assistance; (2) fiscal breakdowns of estimated expenditures; (3) specific requirements for…

Assssment and Mapping of the Riverine Hydrokinetic Resource in the Continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, Paul T.; Ravens, Thomas M.; Cunningham, Keith W.

2012-12-14

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded the Electric Power Research Institute and its collaborative partners, University of Alaska ? Anchorage, University of Alaska ? Fairbanks, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, to provide an assessment of the riverine hydrokinetic resource in the continental United States. The assessment benefited from input obtained during two workshops attended by individuals with relevant expertise and from a National Research Council panel commissioned by DOE to provide guidance to this and other concurrent, DOE-funded assessments of water based renewable energy. These sources of expertise provided valuable advice regarding data sources and assessment methodology. Themore » assessment of the hydrokinetic resource in the 48 contiguous states is derived from spatially-explicit data contained in NHDPlus ?a GIS-based database containing river segment-specific information on discharge characteristics and channel slope. 71,398 river segments with mean annual flow greater than 1,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) mean discharge were included in the assessment. Segments with discharge less than 1,000 cfs were dropped from the assessment, as were river segments with hydroelectric dams. The results for the theoretical and technical resource in the 48 contiguous states were found to be relatively insensitive to the cutoff chosen. Raising the cutoff to 1,500 cfs had no effect on estimate of the technically recoverable resource, and the theoretical resource was reduced by 5.3%. The segment-specific theoretical resource was estimated from these data using the standard hydrological engineering equation that relates theoretical hydraulic power (Pth, Watts) to discharge (Q, m3 s-1) and hydraulic head or change in elevation (??, m) over the length of the segment, where ? is the specific weight of water (9800 N m-3): ??? = ? ? ?? For Alaska, which is not encompassed by NPDPlus, hydraulic head and discharge data were manually obtained from Idaho National Laboratory?s Virtual Hydropower Prospector, Google Earth, and U.S. Geological Survey gages. Data were manually obtained for the eleven largest rivers with average flow rates greater than 10,000 cfs and the resulting estimate of the theoretical resource was expanded to include rivers with discharge between 1,000 cfs and 10,000 cfs based upon the contribution of rivers in the latter flow class to the total estimate in the contiguous 48 states. Segment-specific theoretical resource was aggregated by major hydrologic region in the contiguous, lower 48 states and totaled 1,146 TWh/yr. The aggregate estimate of the Alaska theoretical resource is 235 TWh/yr, yielding a total theoretical resource estimate of 1,381 TWh/yr for the continental US. The technically recoverable resource in the contiguous 48 states was estimated by applying a recovery factor to the segment-specific theoretical resource estimates. The recovery factor scales the theoretical resource for a given segment to take into account assumptions such as minimum required water velocity and depth during low flow conditions, maximum device packing density, device efficiency, and flow statistics (e.g., the 5 percentile flow relative to the average flow rate). The recovery factor also takes account of ?back effects? ? feedback effects of turbine presence on hydraulic head and velocity. The recovery factor was determined over a range of flow rates and slopes using the hydraulic model, HEC-RAS. In the hydraulic modeling, presence of turbines was accounted for by adjusting the Manning coefficient. This analysis, which included 32 scenarios, led to an empirical function relating recovery factor to slope and discharge. Sixty-nine percent of NHDPlus segments included in the theoretical resource estimate for the contiguous 48 states had an estimated recovery factor of zero. For Alaska, data on river slope was not readily available; hence, the recovery factor was estimated based on the flow rate alone. Segment-specific estimates of the theoretical resource were multiplied by the corresponding recovery factor to estimate the technically recoverable resource. The resulting technically recoverable resource estimate for the continental United States is 120 TWh/yr.« less

Attitude estimation of earth orbiting satellites by decomposed linear recursive filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kou, S. R.

1975-01-01

Attitude estimation of earth orbiting satellites (including Large Space Telescope) subjected to environmental disturbances and noises was investigated. Modern control and estimation theory is used as a tool to design an efficient estimator for attitude estimation. Decomposed linear recursive filters for both continuous-time systems and discrete-time systems are derived. By using this accurate estimation of the attitude of spacecrafts, state variable feedback controller may be designed to achieve (or satisfy) high requirements of system performance.

A systematic review of lumped-parameter equivalent circuit models for real-time estimation of lithium-ion battery states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nejad, S.; Gladwin, D. T.; Stone, D. A.

2016-06-01

This paper presents a systematic review for the most commonly used lumped-parameter equivalent circuit model structures in lithium-ion battery energy storage applications. These models include the Combined model, Rint model, two hysteresis models, Randles' model, a modified Randles' model and two resistor-capacitor (RC) network models with and without hysteresis included. Two variations of the lithium-ion cell chemistry, namely the lithium-ion iron phosphate (LiFePO4) and lithium nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide (LiNMC) are used for testing purposes. The model parameters and states are recursively estimated using a nonlinear system identification technique based on the dual Extended Kalman Filter (dual-EKF) algorithm. The dynamic performance of the model structures are verified using the results obtained from a self-designed pulsed-current test and an electric vehicle (EV) drive cycle based on the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) profile over a range of operating temperatures. Analysis on the ten model structures are conducted with respect to state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-power (SOP) estimation with erroneous initial conditions. Comparatively, both RC model structures provide the best dynamic performance, with an outstanding SOC estimation accuracy. For those cell chemistries with large inherent hysteresis levels (e.g. LiFePO4), the RC model with only one time constant is combined with a dynamic hysteresis model to further enhance the performance of the SOC estimator.

Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2002-01-01

Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.

Field of Bachelor's Degree in the United States: 2009. American Community Survey Reports. ACS-18

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siebens, Julie; Ryan, Camille L.

2012-01-01

This report provides information on fields of bachelor's degrees in the United States using data from the 2009 American Community Survey (ACS). It includes estimates of fields of bachelor's degree by demographic characteristics including age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, nativity, and educational attainment. This report also looks at geographic and…

Shear and Turbulence Estimates for Calculation of Wind Turbine Loads and Responses Under Hurricane Strength Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovic, B.; Bryan, G. H.; Haupt, S. E.

2012-12-01

Schwartz et al. (2010) recently reported that the total gross energy-generating offshore wind resource in the United States in waters less than 30m deep is approximately 1000 GW. Estimated offshore generating capacity is thus equivalent to the current generating capacity in the United States. Offshore wind power can therefore play important role in electricity production in the United States. However, most of this resource is located along the East Coast of the United States and in the Gulf of Mexico, areas frequently affected by tropical cyclones including hurricanes. Hurricane strength winds, associated shear and turbulence can affect performance and structural integrity of wind turbines. In a recent study Rose et al. (2012) attempted to estimate the risk to offshore wind turbines from hurricane strength winds over a lifetime of a wind farm (i.e. 20 years). According to Rose et al. turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons. They concluded that there is "substantial risk that Category 3 and higher hurricanes can destroy half or more of the turbines at some locations." More robust designs including appropriate controls can mitigate the risk of wind turbine damage. To develop such designs good estimates of turbine loads under hurricane strength winds are essential. We use output from a large-eddy simulation of a hurricane to estimate shear and turbulence intensity over first couple of hundred meters above sea surface. We compute power spectra of three velocity components at several distances from the eye of the hurricane. Based on these spectra analytical spectral forms are developed and included in TurbSim, a stochastic inflow turbulence code developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/preprocessors/turbsim/). TurbSim provides a numerical simulation including bursts of coherent turbulence associated with organized turbulent structures. It can generate realistic flow conditions that an operating turbine would encounter under hurricane strength winds. These flow fields can be used to estimate wind turbine loads and responses with AeroDyn (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/aerodyn/) and FAST (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/fast/) codes also developed by NREL.

Donor acceptor electronic couplings in π-stacks: How many states must be accounted for?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voityuk, Alexander A.

2006-04-01

Two-state model is commonly used to estimate the donor-acceptor electronic coupling Vda for electron transfer. However, in some important cases, e.g. for DNA π-stacks, this scheme fails to provide accurate values of Vda because of multistate effects. The Generalized Mulliken-Hush method enables a multistate treatment of Vda. In this Letter, we analyze the dependence of calculated electronic couplings on the number of the adiabatic states included in the model. We suggest a simple scheme to determine this number. The superexchange correction of the two-state approximation is shown to provide good estimates of the electronic coupling.

Application of Consider Covariance to the Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundberg, John B.

1996-01-01

The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is the basis for many applications of filtering theory to real-time problems where estimates of the state of a dynamical system are to be computed based upon some set of observations. The form of the EKF may vary somewhat from one application to another, but the fundamental principles are typically unchanged among these various applications. As is the case in many filtering applications, models of the dynamical system (differential equations describing the state variables) and models of the relationship between the observations and the state variables are created. These models typically employ a set of constants whose values are established my means of theory or experimental procedure. Since the estimates of the state are formed assuming that the models are perfect, any modeling errors will affect the accuracy of the computed estimates. Note that the modeling errors may be errors of commission (errors in terms included in the model) or omission (errors in terms excluded from the model). Consequently, it becomes imperative when evaluating the performance of real-time filters to evaluate the effect of modeling errors on the estimates of the state.

Testing the impact of morphological rate heterogeneity on ancestral state reconstruction of five floral traits in angiosperms.

PubMed

Reyes, Elisabeth; Nadot, Sophie; von Balthazar, Maria; Schönenberger, Jürg; Sauquet, Hervé

2018-06-21

Ancestral state reconstruction is an important tool to study morphological evolution and often involves estimating transition rates among character states. However, various factors, including taxonomic scale and sampling density, may impact transition rate estimation and indirectly also the probability of the state at a given node. Here, we test the influence of rate heterogeneity using maximum likelihood methods on five binary perianth characters, optimized on a phylogenetic tree of angiosperms including 1230 species sampled from all families. We compare the states reconstructed by an equal-rate (Mk1) and a two-rate model (Mk2) fitted either with a single set of rates for the whole tree or as a partitioned model, allowing for different rates on five partitions of the tree. We find strong signal for rate heterogeneity among the five subdivisions for all five characters, but little overall impact of the choice of model on reconstructed ancestral states, which indicates that most of our inferred ancestral states are the same whether heterogeneity is accounted for or not.

An improved adaptive weighting function method for State Estimation in Power Systems with VSC-MTDC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Kun; Yang, Xiaonan; Lang, Yansheng; Song, Xuri; Wang, Minkun; Luo, Yadi; Wu, Lingyun; Liu, Peng

2017-04-01

This paper presents an effective approach for state estimation in power systems that include multi-terminal voltage source converter based high voltage direct current (VSC-MTDC), called improved adaptive weighting function method. The proposed approach is simplified in which the VSC-MTDC system is solved followed by the AC system. Because the new state estimation method only changes the weight and keeps the matrix dimension unchanged. Accurate and fast convergence of AC/DC system can be realized by adaptive weight function method. This method also provides the technical support for the simulation analysis and accurate regulation of AC/DC system. Both the oretical analysis and numerical tests verify practicability, validity and convergence of new method.

State Carbon Dioxide Emissions Data

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

These estimates of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) are based on the State Energy Data System. The state data include a summary table with total energy-related CO2 by state beginning in 1990, tables with emissions by all fuels and sectors in 2015, and additional tables for each fuel and sector with history going back to 1980

Feasibility for an EMS workforce safety and health surveillance system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-05-01

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel treat an estimated 22 million patients a year in the United States. Estimates have placed the EMS workforce at around 900,000 workers, but the precise number is unknown because EMS workers include career and...

National Stormwater Calculator - Version 1.1 (Model)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA’s National Stormwater Calculator (SWC) is a desktop application that estimates the annual amount of rainwater and frequency of runoff from a specific site anywhere in the United States (including Puerto Rico). The SWC estimates runoff at a site based on available information ...

An offline approach for output-only Bayesian identification of stochastic nonlinear systems using unscented Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erazo, Kalil; Nagarajaiah, Satish

2017-06-01

In this paper an offline approach for output-only Bayesian identification of stochastic nonlinear systems is presented. The approach is based on a re-parameterization of the joint posterior distribution of the parameters that define a postulated state-space stochastic model class. In the re-parameterization the state predictive distribution is included, marginalized, and estimated recursively in a state estimation step using an unscented Kalman filter, bypassing state augmentation as required by existing online methods. In applications expectations of functions of the parameters are of interest, which requires the evaluation of potentially high-dimensional integrals; Markov chain Monte Carlo is adopted to sample the posterior distribution and estimate the expectations. The proposed approach is suitable for nonlinear systems subjected to non-stationary inputs whose realization is unknown, and that are modeled as stochastic processes. Numerical verification and experimental validation examples illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the approach, including: (i) an increased numerical stability with respect to augmented-state unscented Kalman filtering, avoiding divergence of the estimates when the forcing input is unmeasured; (ii) the ability to handle arbitrary prior and posterior distributions. The experimental validation of the approach is conducted using data from a large-scale structure tested on a shake table. It is shown that the approach is robust to inherent modeling errors in the description of the system and forcing input, providing accurate prediction of the dynamic response when the excitation history is unknown.

National and State Estimates of the Numbers of Adults and Children with Active Epilepsy - United States, 2015.

PubMed

Zack, Matthew M; Kobau, Rosemarie

2017-08-11

Epilepsy, a brain disorder leading to recurring seizures, has garnered increased public health focus because persons with epilepsy experience pronounced and persistent health and socioeconomic disparities despite treatment advances, public awareness programs, and expanded rights for persons with disabilities (1,2). For almost all states, epilepsy prevalence estimates do not exist. CDC used national data sources including the 2015 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) for adults (aged ≥18 years), the 2011-2012 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH), and the 2015 Current Population Survey data, describing 2014 income levels, to estimate prevalent cases of active epilepsy, overall and by state, to provide information for state public health planning. In 2015, 1.2% of the U.S. population (3.4 million persons: 3 million adults and 470,000 children) reported active epilepsy (self-reported doctor-diagnosed epilepsy and under treatment or with recent seizures within 12 months of interview) or current epilepsy (parent-reported doctor-diagnosed epilepsy and current epilepsy). Estimated numbers of persons with active epilepsy, after accounting for income and age differences by state, ranged from 5,900 in Wyoming to 427,700 in California. NHIS data from 2010-2015 indicate increases in the number of persons with active epilepsy, probably because of population growth. This study provides updated national and modeled state-specific numbers of active epilepsy cases. Public health practitioners, health care providers, policy makers, epilepsy researchers, and other epilepsy stakeholders, including family members and people with epilepsy, can use these findings to ensure that evidence-based programs meet the complex needs of adults and children with epilepsy and reduce the disparities resulting from it.

Evaluation of PCB sources and releases for identifying priorities to reduce PCBs in Washington State (USA).

PubMed

Davies, Holly; Delistraty, Damon

2016-02-01

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are ubiquitously distributed in the environment and produce multiple adverse effects in humans and wildlife. As a result, the purpose of our study was to characterize PCB sources in anthropogenic materials and releases to the environment in Washington State (USA) in order to formulate recommendations to reduce PCB exposures. Methods included review of relevant publications (e.g., open literature, industry studies and reports, federal and state government databases), scaling of PCB sources from national or county estimates to state estimates, and communication with industry associations and private and public utilities. Recognizing high associated uncertainty due to incomplete data, we strived to provide central tendency estimates for PCB sources. In terms of mass (high to low), PCB sources include lamp ballasts, caulk, small capacitors, large capacitors, and transformers. For perspective, these sources (200,000-500,000 kg) overwhelm PCBs estimated to reside in the Puget Sound ecosystem (1500 kg). Annual releases of PCBs to the environment (high to low) are attributed to lamp ballasts (400-1500 kg), inadvertent generation by industrial processes (900 kg), caulk (160 kg), small capacitors (3-150 kg), large capacitors (10-80 kg), pigments and dyes (0.02-31 kg), and transformers (<2 kg). Recommendations to characterize the extent of PCB distribution and decrease exposures include assessment of PCBs in buildings (e.g., schools) and replacement of these materials, development of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to contain PCBs, reduction of inadvertent generation of PCBs in consumer products, expansion of environmental monitoring and public education, and research to identify specific PCB congener profiles in human tissues.

A stochastic estimation procedure for intermittently-observed semi-Markov multistate models with back transitions.

PubMed

Aralis, Hilary; Brookmeyer, Ron

2017-01-01

Multistate models provide an important method for analyzing a wide range of life history processes including disease progression and patient recovery following medical intervention. Panel data consisting of the states occupied by an individual at a series of discrete time points are often used to estimate transition intensities of the underlying continuous-time process. When transition intensities depend on the time elapsed in the current state and back transitions between states are possible, this intermittent observation process presents difficulties in estimation due to intractability of the likelihood function. In this manuscript, we present an iterative stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm that relies on a simulation-based approximation to the likelihood function and implement this algorithm using rejection sampling. In a simulation study, we demonstrate the feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure. We then demonstrate application of the algorithm to a study of dementia, the Nun Study, consisting of intermittently-observed elderly subjects in one of four possible states corresponding to intact cognition, impaired cognition, dementia, and death. We show that the proposed stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm substantially reduces bias in model parameter estimates compared to an alternative approach used in the literature, minimal path estimation. We conclude that in estimating intermittently observed semi-Markov models, the proposed approach is a computationally feasible and accurate estimation procedure that leads to substantial improvements in back transition estimates.

Quantifying How Observations Inform a Numerical Reanalysis of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, B. S.

2017-11-01

When assimilating observations into a model via state-estimation, it is possible to quantify how each observation changes the modeled estimate of a chosen oceanic metric. Using an existing 2 year reanalysis of Hawaii that includes more than 31 million observations from satellites, ships, SeaGliders, and autonomous floats, I assess which observations most improve the estimates of the transport and eddy kinetic energy. When the SeaGliders were in the water, they comprised less than 2.5% of the data, but accounted for 23% of the transport adjustment. Because the model physics constrains advanced state-estimation, the prescribed covariances are propagated in time to identify observation-model covariance. I find that observations that constrain the isopycnal tilt across the transport section provide the greatest impact in the analysis. In the case of eddy kinetic energy, observations that constrain the surface-driven upper ocean have more impact. This information can help to identify optimal sampling strategies to improve both state-estimates and forecasts.

Estimation of Faults in DC Electrical Power System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorinevsky, Dimitry; Boyd, Stephen; Poll, Scott

2009-01-01

This paper demonstrates a novel optimization-based approach to estimating fault states in a DC power system. Potential faults changing the circuit topology are included along with faulty measurements. Our approach can be considered as a relaxation of the mixed estimation problem. We develop a linear model of the circuit and pose a convex problem for estimating the faults and other hidden states. A sparse fault vector solution is computed by using 11 regularization. The solution is computed reliably and efficiently, and gives accurate diagnostics on the faults. We demonstrate a real-time implementation of the approach for an instrumented electrical power system testbed, the ADAPT testbed at NASA ARC. The estimates are computed in milliseconds on a PC. The approach performs well despite unmodeled transients and other modeling uncertainties present in the system.

State of charge estimation in Ni-MH rechargeable batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milocco, R. H.; Castro, B. E.

In this work we estimate the state of charge (SOC) of Ni-MH rechargeable batteries using the Kalman filter based on a simplified electrochemical model. First, we derive the complete electrochemical model of the battery which includes diffusional processes and kinetic reactions in both Ni and MH electrodes. The full model is further reduced in a cascade of two parts, a linear time invariant dynamical sub-model followed by a static nonlinearity. Both parts are identified using the current and potential measured at the terminals of the battery with a simple 1-D minimization procedure. The inverse of the static nonlinearity together with a Kalman filter provide the SOC estimation as a linear estimation problem. Experimental results with commercial batteries are provided to illustrate the estimation procedure and to show the performance.

Capture-recapture methodology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, William R.; Kendall, William L.

2013-01-01

Capture-recapture methods were initially developed to estimate human population abundance, but since that time have seen widespread use for fish and wildlife populations to estimate and model various parameters of population, metapopulation, and disease dynamics. Repeated sampling of marked animals provides information for estimating abundance and tracking the fate of individuals in the face of imperfect detection. Mark types have evolved from clipping or tagging to use of noninvasive methods such as photography of natural markings and DNA collection from feces. Survival estimation has been emphasized more recently as have transition probabilities between life history states and/or geographical locations, even where some states are unobservable or uncertain. Sophisticated software has been developed to handle highly parameterized models, including environmental and individual covariates, to conduct model selection, and to employ various estimation approaches such as maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. With these user-friendly tools, complex statistical models for studying population dynamics have been made available to ecologists. The future will include a continuing trend toward integrating data types, both for tagged and untagged individuals, to produce more precise and robust population models.

Estimates of Soil Moisture Using the Land Information System for Land Surface Water Storage: Case Study for the Western States Water Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P. W.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Levoe, S.; Reager, J. T., II; David, C. H.; Kumar, S.; Li, B.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture is one of the critical factors in terrestrial hydrology. Accurate soil moisture information improves estimation of terrestrial water storage and fluxes, that is essential for water resource management including sustainable groundwater pumping and agricultural irrigation practices. It is particularly important during dry periods when water stress is high. The Western States Water Mission (WSWM), a multiyear mission project of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is operated to understand and estimate quantities of the water availability in the western United States by integrating observations and measurements from in-situ and remote sensing sensors, and hydrological models. WSWM data products have been used to assess and explore the adverse impacts of the California drought (2011-2016) and provide decision-makers information for water use planning. Although the observations are often more accurate, simulations using land surface models can provide water availability estimates at desired spatio-temporal scales. The Land Information System (LIS), developed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, integrates developed land surface models and data processing and management tools, that enables to utilize the measurements and observations from various platforms as forcings in the high performance computing environment to forecast the hydrologic conditions. The goal of this study is to implement the LIS in the western United States for estimates of soil moisture. We will implement the NOAH-MP model at the 12km North America Land Data Assimilation System grid and compare to other land surface models included in the LIS. Findings will provide insight into the differences between model estimates and model physics. Outputs from a multi-model ensemble from LIS can also be used to enhance estimated reliability and provide quantification of uncertainty. We will compare the LIS-based soil moisture estimates to the SMAP enhanced 9 km soil moisture product to understand the mechanistic differences between the model and observation. These outcomes will contribute to the WSWM for providing robust products.

Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, Sophie; Kleiner, Kevin J.; Choquet, Remi; Collazo, Jaime; Nichols, James D.

2012-01-01

Land cover data are widely used in ecology as land cover change is a major component of changes affecting ecological systems. Landscape change estimates are characterized by classification errors. Researchers have used error matrices to adjust estimates of areal extent, but estimation of land cover change is more difficult and more challenging, with error in classification being confused with change. We modeled land cover dynamics for a discrete set of habitat states. The approach accounts for state uncertainty to produce unbiased estimates of habitat transition probabilities using ground information to inform error rates. We consider the case when true and observed habitat states are available for the same geographic unit (pixel) and when true and observed states are obtained at one level of resolution, but transition probabilities estimated at a different level of resolution (aggregations of pixels). Simulation results showed a strong bias when estimating transition probabilities if misclassification was not accounted for. Scaling-up does not necessarily decrease the bias and can even increase it. Analyses of land cover data in the Southeast region of the USA showed that land change patterns appeared distorted if misclassification was not accounted for: rate of habitat turnover was artificially increased and habitat composition appeared more homogeneous. Not properly accounting for land cover misclassification can produce misleading inferences about habitat state and dynamics and also misleading predictions about species distributions based on habitat. Our models that explicitly account for state uncertainty should be useful in obtaining more accurate inferences about change from data that include errors.

Estimating repetitive spatiotemporal patterns from resting-state brain activity data.

PubMed

Takeda, Yusuke; Hiroe, Nobuo; Yamashita, Okito; Sato, Masa-Aki

2016-06-01

Repetitive spatiotemporal patterns in spontaneous brain activities have been widely examined in non-human studies. These studies have reported that such patterns reflect past experiences embedded in neural circuits. In human magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) studies, however, spatiotemporal patterns in resting-state brain activities have not been extensively examined. This is because estimating spatiotemporal patterns from resting-state MEG/EEG data is difficult due to their unknown onsets. Here, we propose a method to estimate repetitive spatiotemporal patterns from resting-state brain activity data, including MEG/EEG. Without the information of onsets, the proposed method can estimate several spatiotemporal patterns, even if they are overlapping. We verified the performance of the method by detailed simulation tests. Furthermore, we examined whether the proposed method could estimate the visual evoked magnetic fields (VEFs) without using stimulus onset information. The proposed method successfully detected the stimulus onsets and estimated the VEFs, implying the applicability of this method to real MEG data. The proposed method was applied to resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data and MEG data. The results revealed informative spatiotemporal patterns representing consecutive brain activities that dynamically change with time. Using this method, it is possible to reveal discrete events spontaneously occurring in our brains, such as memory retrieval. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of nonlinear pilot model parameters including time delay.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, J. R.; Roland, V. R.; Wells, W. R.

1972-01-01

Investigation of the feasibility of using a Kalman filter estimator for the identification of unknown parameters in nonlinear dynamic systems with a time delay. The problem considered is the application of estimation theory to determine the parameters of a family of pilot models containing delayed states. In particular, the pilot-plant dynamics are described by differential-difference equations of the retarded type. The pilot delay, included as one of the unknown parameters to be determined, is kept in pure form as opposed to the Pade approximations generally used for these systems. Problem areas associated with processing real pilot response data are included in the discussion.

State and Local Tax Performance, 1981 (Basic Tabulations).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quindry, Kenneth E.; Schoening, Niles C.

Fiscal year 1981 state and local tax performance data are presented, which indicate comparative utilization of taxable resources. Estimates are provided of tax ability for 15 major taxes and total taxes, and tax ability to tax collections for the 50 states and their subdivisions is compared. Tables include the following: population, personal…

Enhancing interferometer phase estimation, sensing sensitivity, and resolution using robust entangled states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James F.

2017-11-01

With the goal of designing interferometers and interferometer sensors, e.g., LADARs with enhanced sensitivity, resolution, and phase estimation, states using quantum entanglement are discussed. These states include N00N states, plain M and M states (PMMSs), and linear combinations of M and M states (LCMMS). Closed form expressions for the optimal detection operators; visibility, a measure of the state's robustness to loss and noise; a resolution measure; and phase estimate error, are provided in closed form. The optimal resolution for the maximum visibility and minimum phase error are found. For the visibility, comparisons between PMMSs, LCMMS, and N00N states are provided. For the minimum phase error, comparisons between LCMMS, PMMSs, N00N states, separate photon states (SPSs), the shot noise limit (SNL), and the Heisenberg limit (HL) are provided. A representative collection of computational results illustrating the superiority of LCMMS when compared to PMMSs and N00N states is given. It is found that for a resolution 12 times the classical result LCMMS has visibility 11 times that of N00N states and 4 times that of PMMSs. For the same case, the minimum phase error for LCMMS is 10.7 times smaller than that of PMMS and 29.7 times smaller than that of N00N states.

The Economic Impact of Adult Hearing Loss: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Huddle, Matthew G; Goman, Adele M; Kernizan, Faradia C; Foley, Danielle M; Price, Carrie; Frick, Kevin D; Lin, Frank R

2017-10-01

Hearing impairment (HI) is highly prevalent in older adults and has been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, the overall economic impact of HI is not well described. The goal of this review was to summarize available data on all relevant costs associated with HI among adults. A literature search of PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Scopus was conducted in August 2015. For this systematic review, data extraction and quality assessment were performed by 2 independent reviewers. Eligibility criteria for included studies were presence of quantitative estimation of economic impact or loss of productivity of patients with HI, full-text English-language access, and publication in an academic, peer-reviewed journal or government report prior to August 2015. This review follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement. A meta-analysis was not performed owing to the studies' heterogeneity in outcomes measures, methodology, and study country. The initial literature search yielded 4595 total references. After 2043 duplicates were removed, 2552 publications underwent title and abstract review, yielding 59 articles for full-text review. After full-text review, 25 articles were included. Of the included articles, 8 incorporated measures of disability; 5 included direct estimates of medical expenditures; 8 included other cost estimates; and 7 were related to noise-induced or work-related HI. Estimates of the economic cost of lost productivity varied widely, from $1.8 to $194 billion in the United States. Excess medical costs resulting from HI ranged from $3.3 to $12.8 billion in the United States. Hearing loss is associated with billions of dollars of excess costs in the United States, but significant variance is seen between studies. A rigorous, comprehensive estimate of the economic impact of hearing loss is needed to help guide policy decisions around the management of hearing loss in adults.

Instantaneous charge state of uranium projectiles in fully ionized plasmas from energy loss experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, Roberto; Barriga-Carrasco, Manuel D.; Casas, David

2017-04-01

The instantaneous charge state of uranium ions traveling through a fully ionized hydrogen plasma has been theoretically studied and compared with one of the first energy loss experiments in plasmas, carried out at GSI-Darmstadt by Hoffmann et al. in the 1990s. For this purpose, two different methods to estimate the instantaneous charge state of the projectile have been employed: (1) rate equations using ionization and recombination cross sections and (2) equilibrium charge state formulas for plasmas. Also, the equilibrium charge state has been obtained using these ionization and recombination cross sections and compared with the former equilibrium formulas. The equilibrium charge state of projectiles in plasmas is not always reached, and it depends mainly on the projectile velocity and the plasma density. Therefore, a non-equilibrium or an instantaneous description of the projectile charge is necessary. The charge state of projectile ions cannot be measured, except after exiting the target, and experimental data remain very scarce. Thus, the validity of our charge state model is checked by comparing the theoretical predictions with an energy loss experiment, as the energy loss has a generally quadratic dependence on the projectile charge state. The dielectric formalism has been used to calculate the plasma stopping power including the Brandt-Kitagawa (BK) model to describe the charge distribution of the projectile. In this charge distribution, the instantaneous number of bound electrons instead of the equilibrium number has been taken into account. Comparing our theoretical predictions with experiments, it is shown the necessity of including the instantaneous charge state and the BK charge distribution for a correct energy loss estimation. The results also show that the initial charge state has a strong influence in order to estimate the energy loss of the uranium ions.

On-line adaptive battery impedance parameter and state estimation considering physical principles in reduced order equivalent circuit battery models. Part 1. Requirements, critical review of methods and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, Christian; Waag, Wladislaw; Heyn, Hans-Martin; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2014-08-01

Lithium-ion battery systems employed in high power demanding systems such as electric vehicles require a sophisticated monitoring system to ensure safe and reliable operation. Three major states of the battery are of special interest and need to be constantly monitored, these include: battery state of charge (SoC), battery state of health (capcity fade determination, SoH), and state of function (power fade determination, SoF). In a series of two papers, we propose a system of algorithms based on a weighted recursive least quadratic squares parameter estimator, that is able to determine the battery impedance and diffusion parameters for accurate state estimation. The functionality was proven on different battery chemistries with different aging conditions. The first paper investigates the general requirements on BMS for HEV/EV applications. In parallel, the commonly used methods for battery monitoring are reviewed to elaborate their strength and weaknesses in terms of the identified requirements for on-line applications. Special emphasis will be placed on real-time capability and memory optimized code for cost-sensitive industrial or automotive applications in which low-cost microcontrollers must be used. Therefore, a battery model is presented which includes the influence of the Butler-Volmer kinetics on the charge-transfer process. Lastly, the mass transport process inside the battery is modeled in a novel state-space representation.

Performance of a Limiting-Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay for Cross-Sectional Estimation of HIV Incidence in the United States

PubMed Central

Konikoff, Jacob; Brookmeyer, Ron; Longosz, Andrew F.; Cousins, Matthew M.; Celum, Connie; Buchbinder, Susan P.; Seage, George R.; Kirk, Gregory D.; Moore, Richard D.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Margolick, Joseph B.; Brown, Joelle; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Koblin, Beryl A.; Justman, Jessica E.; Hodder, Sally L.; Quinn, Thomas C.; Eshleman, Susan H.; Laeyendecker, Oliver

2013-01-01

Background A limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (HIV-1 LAg-Avidity assay) was recently developed for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation. We evaluated the performance of the LAg-Avidity assay alone and in multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) that included other biomarkers. Methods and Findings Performance of testing algorithms was evaluated using 2,282 samples from individuals in the United States collected 1 month to >8 years after HIV seroconversion. The capacity of selected testing algorithms to accurately estimate incidence was evaluated in three longitudinal cohorts. When used in a single-assay format, the LAg-Avidity assay classified some individuals infected >5 years as assay positive and failed to provide reliable incidence estimates in cohorts that included individuals with long-term infections. We evaluated >500,000 testing algorithms, that included the LAg-Avidity assay alone and MAAs with other biomarkers (BED capture immunoassay [BED-CEIA], BioRad-Avidity assay, HIV viral load, CD4 cell count), varying the assays and assay cutoffs. We identified an optimized 2-assay MAA that included the LAg-Avidity and BioRad-Avidity assays, and an optimized 4-assay MAA that included those assays, as well as HIV viral load and CD4 cell count. The two optimized MAAs classified all 845 samples from individuals infected >5 years as MAA negative and estimated incidence within a year of sample collection. These two MAAs produced incidence estimates that were consistent with those from longitudinal follow-up of cohorts. A comparison of the laboratory assay costs of the MAAs was also performed, and we found that the costs associated with the optimal two assay MAA were substantially less than with the four assay MAA. Conclusions The LAg-Avidity assay did not perform well in a single-assay format, regardless of the assay cutoff. MAAs that include the LAg-Avidity and BioRad-Avidity assays, with or without viral load and CD4 cell count, provide accurate incidence estimates. PMID:24386116

Projection-based circular constrained state estimation and fusion over long-haul links

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Qiang; Rao, Nageswara S.

In this paper, we consider a scenario where sensors are deployed over a large geographical area for tracking a target with circular nonlinear constraints on its motion dynamics. The sensor state estimates are sent over long-haul networks to a remote fusion center for fusion. We are interested in different ways to incorporate the constraints into the estimation and fusion process in the presence of communication loss. In particular, we consider closed-form projection-based solutions, including rules for fusing the estimates and for incorporating the constraints, which jointly can guarantee timely fusion often required in realtime systems. We test the performance ofmore » these methods in the long-haul tracking environment using a simple example.« less

Online Sensor Fault Detection Based on an Improved Strong Tracking Filter

PubMed Central

Wang, Lijuan; Wu, Lifeng; Guan, Yong; Wang, Guohui

2015-01-01

We propose a method for online sensor fault detection that is based on the evolving Strong Tracking Filter (STCKF). The cubature rule is used to estimate states to improve the accuracy of making estimates in a nonlinear case. A residual is the difference in value between an estimated value and the true value. A residual will be regarded as a signal that includes fault information. The threshold is set at a reasonable level, and will be compared with residuals to determine whether or not the sensor is faulty. The proposed method requires only a nominal plant model and uses STCKF to estimate the original state vector. The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified by simulation on a drum-boiler model. PMID:25690553

On-line estimation of nonlinear physical systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christakos, G.

1988-01-01

Recursive algorithms for estimating states of nonlinear physical systems are presented. Orthogonality properties are rediscovered and the associated polynomials are used to linearize state and observation models of the underlying random processes. This requires some key hypotheses regarding the structure of these processes, which may then take account of a wide range of applications. The latter include streamflow forecasting, flood estimation, environmental protection, earthquake engineering, and mine planning. The proposed estimation algorithm may be compared favorably to Taylor series-type filters, nonlinear filters which approximate the probability density by Edgeworth or Gram-Charlier series, as well as to conventional statistical linearization-type estimators. Moreover, the method has several advantages over nonrecursive estimators like disjunctive kriging. To link theory with practice, some numerical results for a simulated system are presented, in which responses from the proposed and extended Kalman algorithms are compared. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

The cost of karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse in the United States compared with other natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weary, David J.

2015-01-01

Rocks with potential for karst formation are found in all 50 states. Damage due to karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse is a natural hazard of national scope. Repair of damage to buildings, highways, and other infrastructure represents a significant national cost. Sparse and incomplete data show that the average cost of karst-related damages in the United States over the last 15 years is estimated to be at least $300,000,000 per year and the actual total is probably much higher. This estimate is lower than the estimated annual costs for other natural hazards; flooding, hurricanes and cyclonic storms, tornadoes, landslides, earthquakes, or wildfires, all of which average over $1 billion per year. Very few state organizations track karst subsidence and sinkhole damage mitigation costs; none occurs at the Federal level. Many states discuss the karst hazard in their State hazard mitigation plans, but seldom include detailed reports of subsidence incidents or their mitigation costs. Most State highway departments do not differentiate karst subsidence or sinkhole collapse from other road repair costs. Amassing of these data would raise the estimated annual cost considerably. Information from insurance organizations about sinkhole damage claims and payouts is also not readily available. Currently there is no agency with a mandate for developing such data. If a more realistic estimate could be made, it would illuminate the national scope of this hazard and make comparison with costs of other natural hazards more realistic.

Users manual for linear Time-Varying Helicopter Simulation (Program TVHIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, M. R.

1979-01-01

A linear time-varying helicopter simulation program (TVHIS) is described. The program is designed as a realistic yet efficient helicopter simulation. It is based on a linear time-varying helicopter model which includes rotor, actuator, and sensor models, as well as a simulation of flight computer logic. The TVHIS can generate a mean trajectory simulation along a nominal trajectory, or propagate covariance of helicopter states, including rigid-body, turbulence, control command, controller states, and rigid-body state estimates.

USGS world petroleum assessment 2000; new estimates of undiscovered oil and natural gas, including reserve growth, outside the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Oil and natural gas account for approximately 63 percent of the world’s total energy consumption. The U.S. Geological Survey periodically estimates the amount of oil and gas remaining to be found in the world. Since 1981, each of the last four of these assessments has shown a slight increase in the combined volume of identified reserves and undiscovered resources. The latest assessment estimates the volume of technically recoverable conventional oil and gas that may be added to the world's reserves, exclusive of the United States, in the next 30 years. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 reports an increase in global petroleum resources, including a 20-percent increase in undiscovered oil and a 14-percent decrease in undiscovered natural gas compared to the previous assessment (table 1). These results have important implications for energy prices, policy, security, and the global resource balance.

Motorcycle helmet effectiveness in reducing head, face and brain injuries by state and helmet law.

PubMed

Olsen, Cody S; Thomas, Andrea M; Singleton, Michael; Gaichas, Anna M; Smith, Tracy J; Smith, Gary A; Peng, Justin; Bauer, Michael J; Qu, Ming; Yeager, Denise; Kerns, Timothy; Burch, Cynthia; Cook, Lawrence J

2016-12-01

Despite evidence that motorcycle helmets reduce morbidity and mortality, helmet laws and rates of helmet use vary by state in the U.S. We pooled data from eleven states: five with universal laws requiring all motorcyclists to wear a helmet, and six with partial laws requiring only a subset of motorcyclists to wear a helmet. Data were combined in the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System's General Use Model and included motorcycle crash records probabilistically linked to emergency department and inpatient discharges for years 2005-2008. Medical outcomes were compared between partial and universal helmet law settings. We estimated adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for head, facial, traumatic brain, and moderate to severe head/facial injuries associated with helmet use within each helmet law setting using generalized log-binomial regression. Reported helmet use was higher in universal law states (88 % vs. 42 %). Median charges, adjusted for inflation and differences in state-incomes, were higher in partial law states (emergency department $1987 vs. $1443; inpatient $31,506 vs. $25,949). Injuries to the head and face, including traumatic brain injuries, were more common in partial law states. Effectiveness estimates of helmet use were higher in partial law states (adjusted-RR (CI) of head injury: 2.1 (1.9-2.2) partial law single vehicle; 1.4 (1.2, 1.6) universal law single vehicle; 1.8 (1.6-2.0) partial law multi-vehicle; 1.2 (1.1-1.4) universal law multi-vehicle). Medical charges and rates of head, facial, and brain injuries among motorcyclists were lower in universal law states. Helmets were effective in reducing injury in both helmet law settings; lower effectiveness estimates were observed in universal law states.

Motorcycle helmet effectiveness in reducing head, face and brain injuries by state and helmet law.

PubMed

Olsen, Cody S; Thomas, Andrea M; Singleton, Michael; Gaichas, Anna M; Smith, Tracy J; Smith, Gary A; Peng, Justin; Bauer, Michael J; Qu, Ming; Yeager, Denise; Kerns, Timothy; Burch, Cynthia; Cook, Lawrence J

Despite evidence that motorcycle helmets reduce morbidity and mortality, helmet laws and rates of helmet use vary by state in the U.S. We pooled data from eleven states: five with universal laws requiring all motorcyclists to wear a helmet, and six with partial laws requiring only a subset of motorcyclists to wear a helmet. Data were combined in the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System's General Use Model and included motorcycle crash records probabilistically linked to emergency department and inpatient discharges for years 2005-2008. Medical outcomes were compared between partial and universal helmet law settings. We estimated adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for head, facial, traumatic brain, and moderate to severe head/facial injuries associated with helmet use within each helmet law setting using generalized log-binomial regression. Reported helmet use was higher in universal law states (88 % vs. 42 %). Median charges, adjusted for inflation and differences in state-incomes, were higher in partial law states (emergency department $1987 vs. $1443; inpatient $31,506 vs. $25,949). Injuries to the head and face, including traumatic brain injuries, were more common in partial law states. Effectiveness estimates of helmet use were higher in partial law states (adjusted-RR (CI) of head injury: 2.1 (1.9-2.2) partial law single vehicle; 1.4 (1.2, 1.6) universal law single vehicle; 1.8 (1.6-2.0) partial law multi-vehicle; 1.2 (1.1-1.4) universal law multi-vehicle). Medical charges and rates of head, facial, and brain injuries among motorcyclists were lower in universal law states. Helmets were effective in reducing injury in both helmet law settings; lower effectiveness estimates were observed in universal law states.

United States Air Force Annual Financial Statement 2011

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources , gathering and maintaining...defenses. The B-52 Stratofortress is a long-range, nuclear and conventional heavy bomber that can perform a variety of missions. The bomber can fly...of the United States Government are deposited. Exceptions include receipts from specific sources required by law to be deposited into other

Plantation thinning systems in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Bryce J. Stokes; William F. Watson

1996-01-01

This paper reviews southern pine management and thinning practices, describes three harvesting systems for thinning, and presents production and cost estimates, and utilization rates. The costs and product recoveries were developed from published sources using a spreadsheet analysis. Systems included tree-length, flail/chip, and cut-to-length. The estimated total...

EVALUATION OF SAMPLING FREQUENCIES REQUIRED TO ESTIMATE NUTRIENT AND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT LOADS IN LARGE RIVERS

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrients and suspended sediments in streams and large rivers are two major issues facing state and federal agencies. Accurate estimates of nutrient and sediment loads are needed to assess a variety of important water-quality issues including total maximum daily loads, aquatic ec...

Simultaneous Estimation of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State Variables With Radar Data and Ensemble Square-root Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, M.; Xue, M.

2006-12-01

An important source of model error for convective-scale data assimilation and prediction is microphysical parameterization. This study investigates the possibility of estimating up to five fundamental microphysical parameters, which are closely involved in the definition of drop size distribution of microphysical species in a commonly used single-moment ice microphysics scheme, using radar observations and the ensemble Kalman filter method. The five parameters include the intercept parameters for rain, snow and hail/graupel, and the bulk densities of hail/graupel and snow. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability are first examined. The ensemble square-root Kalman filter (EnSRF) is employed for simultaneous state and parameter estimation. OSS experiments are performed for a model-simulated supercell storm, in which the five microphysical parameters are estimated individually or in different combinations starting from different initial guesses. When error exists in only one of the microphysical parameters, the parameter can be successfully estimated without exception. The estimation of multiple parameters is found to be less robust, with end results of estimation being sensitive to the realization of the initial parameter perturbation. This is believed to be because of the reduced parameter identifiability and the existence of non-unique solutions. The results of state estimation are, however, always improved when simultaneous parameter estimation is performed, even when the estimated parameters values are not accurate.

Biennial Survey of Education in the United States, 1934-1936. Bulletin, 1937, No. 2. Volume II. Chapter III: Statistics of City School Systems, 1935-36

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herlihy, Lester B.; Deffenbaugh, Walter S.

1938-01-01

This report presents statistics of city school systems for the school year 1935-36. prior to 1933-34 school statistics for cities included in county unit systems were estimated. Most of these cities are in Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, and West Virginia. Since the method of estimating school statistics for the cities included with the counties in…

Very High Resolution Tree Cover Mapping for Continental United States using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, Sangram; Kalia, Subodh; Li, Shuang; Michaelis, Andrew; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Saatchi, Sassan A

2017-01-01

Uncertainties in input land cover estimates contribute to a significant bias in modeled above ground biomass (AGB) and carbon estimates from satellite-derived data. The resolution of most currently used passive remote sensing products is not sufficient to capture tree canopy cover of less than ca. 10-20 percent, limiting their utility to estimate canopy cover and AGB for trees outside of forest land. In our study, we created a first of its kind Continental United States (CONUS) tree cover map at a spatial resolution of 1-m for the 2010-2012 epoch using the USDA NAIP imagery to address the present uncertainties in AGB estimates. The process involves different tasks including data acquisition ingestion to pre-processing and running a state-of-art encoder-decoder based deep convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm for automatically generating a tree non-tree map for almost a quarter million scenes. The entire processing chain including generation of the largest open source existing aerial satellite image training database was performed at the NEX supercomputing and storage facility. We believe the resulting forest cover product will substantially contribute to filling the gaps in ongoing carbon and ecological monitoring research and help quantifying the errors and uncertainties in derived products.

Very High Resolution Tree Cover Mapping for Continental United States using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, S.; Kalia, S.; Li, S.; Michaelis, A.; Nemani, R. R.; Saatchi, S.

2017-12-01

Uncertainties in input land cover estimates contribute to a significant bias in modeled above gound biomass (AGB) and carbon estimates from satellite-derived data. The resolution of most currently used passive remote sensing products is not sufficient to capture tree canopy cover of less than ca. 10-20 percent, limiting their utility to estimate canopy cover and AGB for trees outside of forest land. In our study, we created a first of its kind Continental United States (CONUS) tree cover map at a spatial resolution of 1-m for the 2010-2012 epoch using the USDA NAIP imagery to address the present uncertainties in AGB estimates. The process involves different tasks including data acquisition/ingestion to pre-processing and running a state-of-art encoder-decoder based deep convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm for automatically generating a tree/non-tree map for almost a quarter million scenes. The entire processing chain including generation of the largest open source existing aerial/satellite image training database was performed at the NEX supercomputing and storage facility. We believe the resulting forest cover product will substantially contribute to filling the gaps in ongoing carbon and ecological monitoring research and help quantifying the errors and uncertainties in derived products.

Data and methodological problems in establishing state gasoline-conservation targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greene, D.L.; Walton, G.H.

The Emergency Energy Conservation Act of 1979 gives the President the authority to set gasoline-conservation targets for states in the event of a supply shortage. This paper examines data and methodological problems associated with setting state gasoline-conservation targets. The target-setting method currently used is examined and found to have some flaws. Ways of correcting these deficiencies through the use of Box-Jenkins time-series analysis are investigated. A successful estimation of Box-Jenkins models for all states included the estimation of the magnitude of the supply shortages of 1979 in each state and a preliminary estimation of state short-run price elasticities, which weremore » found to vary about a median value of -0.16. The time-series models identified were very simple in structure and lent support to the simple consumption growth model assumed by the current target method. The authors conclude that the flaws in the current method can be remedied either by replacing the current procedures with time-series models or by using the models in conjunction with minor modifications of the current method.« less

Applications of the Peng-Robinson Equation of State Using MATLAB[R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nasri, Zakia; Binous, Housam

2009-01-01

A single equation of state (EOS) such as the Peng-Robinson (PR) EOS can accurately describe both the liquid and vapor phase. We present several applications of this equation of state, including estimation of pure component properties and computation of the vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) diagram for binary mixtures. We perform high-pressure…

Developing small-area predictions for smoking and obesity prevalence in the United States for use in Environmental Public Health Tracking.

PubMed

Ortega Hinojosa, Alberto M; Davies, Molly M; Jarjour, Sarah; Burnett, Richard T; Mann, Jennifer K; Hughes, Edward; Balmes, John R; Turner, Michelle C; Jerrett, Michael

2014-10-01

Globally and in the United States, smoking and obesity are leading causes of death and disability. Reliable estimates of prevalence for these risk factors are often missing variables in public health surveillance programs. This may limit the capacity of public health surveillance to target interventions or to assess associations between other environmental risk factors (e.g., air pollution) and health because smoking and obesity are often important confounders. To generate prevalence estimates of smoking and obesity rates over small areas for the United States (i.e., at the ZIP code and census tract levels). We predicted smoking and obesity prevalence using a combined approach first using a lasso-based variable selection procedure followed by a two-level random effects regression with a Poisson link clustered on state and county. We used data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1991 to 2010 to estimate the model. We used 10-fold cross-validated mean squared errors and the variance of the residuals to test our model. To downscale the estimates we combined the prediction equations with 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census data for each of the four five-year time periods in this time range at the ZIP code and census tract levels. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted using models that included only basic terms, that accounted for spatial autocorrelation, and used Generalized Linear Models that did not include random effects. The two-level random effects model produced improved estimates compared to the fixed effects-only models. Estimates were particularly improved for the two-thirds of the conterminous U.S. where BRFSS data were available to estimate the county level random effects. We downscaled the smoking and obesity rate predictions to derive ZIP code and census tract estimates. To our knowledge these smoking and obesity predictions are the first to be developed for the entire conterminous U.S. for census tracts and ZIP codes. Our estimates could have significant utility for public health surveillance. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Costs of Crashes to Government, United States, 2008

PubMed Central

Miller, Ted R; Bhattacharya, Soma; Zaloshnja, Eduard; Taylor, Dexter; Bahar, Geni; David, Iuliana

2011-01-01

We estimated how much the Federal government and state/local government pay for different kinds of crashes in the United States. Government costs include reductions in an array of public services (emergency, incident management, vocational rehabilitation, coroner court processing of liability litigation), medical payments, social safety net assistance to the injured and their families, and taxes foregone because victims miss work. Government also pays when its employees crash while working and covers fringe benefits for crash-involved employees and their benefit-eligible dependents in non-work hours. We estimated government shares of crash costs by component. We applied those estimates to existing US Department of Transportation estimates of crash costs to society and employers. Government pays an estimated $35 billion annually because of crashes, an estimated 12.6% of the economic cost of crashes (Federal 7.1%, State/local 5.5%). Government bears a higher percentage of the monetary costs of injury crashes than fatal crashes or crashes involving property damage only. Government is increasingly recovering the medical cost of crashes from auto insurers. Nevertheless, medical costs and income and sales tax losses account for 75% of government's crash costs. For State/local government to break even on a 100%-State funded investment in road safety, the intervention would need to have an unrealistically high benefit-cost ratio of 34. Government invests in medical treatment of illness to save lives and improve quality of life. Curing a child's leukemia, for example, is not less costly than leaving that leukemia untreated. Safety should not be held to a different standard. PMID:22105409

Genital Chlamydia Prevalence in Europe and Non-European High Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Redmond, Shelagh M.; Alexander-Kisslig, Karin; Woodhall, Sarah C.; van den Broek, Ingrid V. F.; van Bergen, Jan; Ward, Helen; Uusküla, Anneli; Herrmann, Björn; Andersen, Berit; Götz, Hannelore M.; Sfetcu, Otilia; Low, Nicola

2015-01-01

Background Accurate information about the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis is needed to assess national prevention and control measures. Methods We systematically reviewed population-based cross-sectional studies that estimated chlamydia prevalence in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and non-European high income countries from January 1990 to August 2012. We examined results in forest plots, explored heterogeneity using the I2 statistic, and conducted random effects meta-analysis if appropriate. Meta-regression was used to examine the relationship between study characteristics and chlamydia prevalence estimates. Results We included 25 population-based studies from 11 EU/EEA countries and 14 studies from five other high income countries. Four EU/EEA Member States reported on nationally representative surveys of sexually experienced adults aged 18–26 years (response rates 52–71%). In women, chlamydia point prevalence estimates ranged from 3.0–5.3%; the pooled average of these estimates was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4, 4.8, I2 0%). In men, estimates ranged from 2.4–7.3% (pooled average 3.5%; 95% CI 1.9, 5.2, I2 27%). Estimates in EU/EEA Member States were statistically consistent with those in other high income countries (I2 0% for women, 6% for men). There was statistical evidence of an association between survey response rate and estimated chlamydia prevalence; estimates were higher in surveys with lower response rates, (p = 0.003 in women, 0.018 in men). Conclusions Population-based surveys that estimate chlamydia prevalence are at risk of participation bias owing to low response rates. Estimates obtained in nationally representative samples of the general population of EU/EEA Member States are similar to estimates from other high income countries. PMID:25615574

Real-Time State Estimation and Long-Term Model Adaptation: A Two-Sided Approach toward Personalized Diagnosis of Glucose and Insulin Levels

PubMed Central

Eberle, Claudia; Ament, Christoph

2012-01-01

Background With continuous glucose sensors (CGSs), it is possible to obtain a dynamical signal of the patient’s subcutaneous glucose concentration in real time. How could that information be exploited? We suggest a model-based diagnosis system with a twofold objective: real-time state estimation and long-term model parameter identification. Methods To obtain a dynamical model, Bergman’s nonlinear minimal model (considering plasma glucose G, insulin I, and interstitial insulin X) is extended by two states describing first and second insulin response. Furthermore, compartments for oral glucose and subcutaneous insulin inputs as well as for subcutaneous glucose measurement are added. The observability of states and external inputs as well as the identifiability of model parameters are assessed using the empirical observability Gramian. Signals are estimated for different nondiabetic and diabetic scenarios by unscented Kalman filter. Results (1) Observability of different state subsets is evaluated, e.g., from CGSs, {G, I} or {G, X} can be observed and the set {G, I, X} cannot. (2) Model parameters are included, e.g., it is possible to estimate the second-phase insulin response gain kG2 additionally. This can be used for model adaptation and as a diagnostic parameter that is almost zero for diabetes patients. (3) External inputs are considered, e.g., oral glucose is theoretically observable for nondiabetic patients, but estimation scenarios show that the time delay of 1 h limits application. Conclusions A real-time estimation of states (such as plasma insulin I) and parameters (such as kG2) is possible, which allows an improved real-time state prediction and a personalized model. PMID:23063042

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Classifying Different Emotional States by Means of EEG-Based Functional Connectivity Patterns

PubMed Central

Lee, You-Yun; Hsieh, Shulan

2014-01-01

This study aimed to classify different emotional states by means of EEG-based functional connectivity patterns. Forty young participants viewed film clips that evoked the following emotional states: neutral, positive, or negative. Three connectivity indices, including correlation, coherence, and phase synchronization, were used to estimate brain functional connectivity in EEG signals. Following each film clip, participants were asked to report on their subjective affect. The results indicated that the EEG-based functional connectivity change was significantly different among emotional states. Furthermore, the connectivity pattern was detected by pattern classification analysis using Quadratic Discriminant Analysis. The results indicated that the classification rate was better than chance. We conclude that estimating EEG-based functional connectivity provides a useful tool for studying the relationship between brain activity and emotional states. PMID:24743695

Estimated United States Transportation Energy Use 2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, C A; Simon, A J; Belles, R D

A flow chart depicting energy flow in the transportation sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 31,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of energy were used throughout the United States in transportation activities. Vehicles used in these activities include automobiles, motorcycles, trucks, buses, airplanes, rail, and ships. The transportation sector is powered primarily by petroleum-derived fuels (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel). Biomass-derived fuels, electricity and natural gas-derived fuels are also used. The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within themore » transportation sector.« less

Space shuttle propulsion estimation development verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, Robert M.

1989-01-01

The application of extended Kalman filtering to estimating the Space Shuttle Propulsion performance, i.e., specific impulse, from flight data in a post-flight processing computer program is detailed. The flight data used include inertial platform acceleration, SRB head pressure, SSME chamber pressure and flow rates, and ground based radar tracking data. The key feature in this application is the model used for the SRB's, which is a nominal or reference quasi-static internal ballistics model normalized to the propellant burn depth. Dynamic states of mass overboard and propellant burn depth are included in the filter model to account for real-time deviations from the reference model used. Aerodynamic, plume, wind and main engine uncertainties are also included for an integrated system model. Assuming uncertainty within the propulsion system model and attempts to estimate its deviations represent a new application of parameter estimation for rocket powered vehicles. Illustrations from the results of applying this estimation approach to several missions show good quality propulsion estimates.

Motion Field Estimation for a Dynamic Scene Using a 3D LiDAR

PubMed Central

Li, Qingquan; Zhang, Liang; Mao, Qingzhou; Zou, Qin; Zhang, Pin; Feng, Shaojun; Ochieng, Washington

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a novel motion field estimation method based on a 3D light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensor for motion sensing for intelligent driverless vehicles and active collision avoidance systems. Unlike multiple target tracking methods, which estimate the motion state of detected targets, such as cars and pedestrians, motion field estimation regards the whole scene as a motion field in which each little element has its own motion state. Compared to multiple target tracking, segmentation errors and data association errors have much less significance in motion field estimation, making it more accurate and robust. This paper presents an intact 3D LiDAR-based motion field estimation method, including pre-processing, a theoretical framework for the motion field estimation problem and practical solutions. The 3D LiDAR measurements are first projected to small-scale polar grids, and then, after data association and Kalman filtering, the motion state of every moving grid is estimated. To reduce computing time, a fast data association algorithm is proposed. Furthermore, considering the spatial correlation of motion among neighboring grids, a novel spatial-smoothing algorithm is also presented to optimize the motion field. The experimental results using several data sets captured in different cities indicate that the proposed motion field estimation is able to run in real-time and performs robustly and effectively. PMID:25207868

Motion field estimation for a dynamic scene using a 3D LiDAR.

PubMed

Li, Qingquan; Zhang, Liang; Mao, Qingzhou; Zou, Qin; Zhang, Pin; Feng, Shaojun; Ochieng, Washington

2014-09-09

This paper proposes a novel motion field estimation method based on a 3D light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensor for motion sensing for intelligent driverless vehicles and active collision avoidance systems. Unlike multiple target tracking methods, which estimate the motion state of detected targets, such as cars and pedestrians, motion field estimation regards the whole scene as a motion field in which each little element has its own motion state. Compared to multiple target tracking, segmentation errors and data association errors have much less significance in motion field estimation, making it more accurate and robust. This paper presents an intact 3D LiDAR-based motion field estimation method, including pre-processing, a theoretical framework for the motion field estimation problem and practical solutions. The 3D LiDAR measurements are first projected to small-scale polar grids, and then, after data association and Kalman filtering, the motion state of every moving grid is estimated. To reduce computing time, a fast data association algorithm is proposed. Furthermore, considering the spatial correlation of motion among neighboring grids, a novel spatial-smoothing algorithm is also presented to optimize the motion field. The experimental results using several data sets captured in different cities indicate that the proposed motion field estimation is able to run in real-time and performs robustly and effectively.

Distributed and decentralized state estimation in gas networks as distributed parameter systems.

PubMed

Ahmadian Behrooz, Hesam; Boozarjomehry, R Bozorgmehry

2015-09-01

In this paper, a framework for distributed and decentralized state estimation in high-pressure and long-distance gas transmission networks (GTNs) is proposed. The non-isothermal model of the plant including mass, momentum and energy balance equations are used to simulate the dynamic behavior. Due to several disadvantages of implementing a centralized Kalman filter for large-scale systems, the continuous/discrete form of extended Kalman filter for distributed and decentralized estimation (DDE) has been extended for these systems. Accordingly, the global model is decomposed into several subsystems, called local models. Some heuristic rules are suggested for system decomposition in gas pipeline networks. In the construction of local models, due to the existence of common states and interconnections among the subsystems, the assimilation and prediction steps of the Kalman filter are modified to take the overlapping and external states into account. However, dynamic Riccati equation for each subsystem is constructed based on the local model, which introduces a maximum error of 5% in the estimated standard deviation of the states in the benchmarks studied in this paper. The performance of the proposed methodology has been shown based on the comparison of its accuracy and computational demands against their counterparts in centralized Kalman filter for two viable benchmarks. In a real life network, it is shown that while the accuracy is not significantly decreased, the real-time factor of the state estimation is increased by a factor of 10. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced Performance Controller Design for Stochastic Systems by Adding Extra State Estimation onto the Existing Closed Loop Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Yuyang; Zhang, Qichun; Wang, Hong

To enhance the performance of the tracking property , this paper presents a novel control algorithm for a class of linear dynamic stochastic systems with unmeasurable states, where the performance enhancement loop is established based on Kalman filter. Without changing the existing closed loop with the PI controller, the compensative controller is designed to minimize the variances of the tracking errors using the estimated states and the propagation of state variances. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems has been analyzed in the mean-square sense. A simulated example is included to show the effectiveness of the presented control algorithm, wheremore » encouraging results have been obtained.« less

A review of the population estimation approach of the North American landbird conservation plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Howe, Frank P.; James, Frances C.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Reed, Eric T.; Sauer, John R.; Thompson, Frank R.

2006-01-01

As part of their development of a continental plan for monitoring landbirds (Rich et al. 2004), Partners in Flight (PIF) applied a new method to make preliminary estimates of population size for all 448 species of landbirds present in the continental United States and Canada (Table 1). Estimation of the global population size of North American landbirds was intended to (1) identify the degree of vulnerability of each species, (2) provide estimates of the current population size for each species, and (3) provide a starting point for estimating population sizes in states, provinces, territories, and Bird Conservation Regions (Rich et al. 2004). A method proposed by Rosenberg and Blancher (2005) was used to derive population estimates from available survey data. To enhance the credibility of these estimates, PIF organized a review of the methodology used to estimate North American landbird population sizes. A planning committee selected members from the ornithological and biometrical communities (hereafter “the panel”), with the aim of selecting individuals from academia, state natural-resource agencies, and the U.S. and Canadian federal governments, including the Canadian Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.The panel addressed three questions: (1) Were the methods of population estimation proposed by PIF reasonable? (2) What actions could be taken to improve the data or analyses on which the PIF population estimates were based? and (3) How should the PIF population estimates be interpreted?

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients.

PubMed

Bratzler, Dale W; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2011-04-12

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998-2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998-2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25(th), 50(th), and 75(th) percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.

An Administrative Claims Model for Profiling Hospital 30-Day Mortality Rates for Pneumonia Patients

PubMed Central

Bratzler, Dale W.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J.; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F.; Rapp, Michael T.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2011-01-01

Background Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Methodology/Principal Findings Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). Conclusions/Significance An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model. PMID:21532758

Burden of Severe Pneumonia, Pneumococcal Pneumonia and Pneumonia Deaths in Indian States: Modelling Based Estimates

PubMed Central

Farooqui, Habib; Jit, Mark; Heymann, David L.; Zodpey, Sanjay

2015-01-01

The burden of severe pneumonia in terms of morbidity and mortality is unknown in India especially at sub-national level. In this context, we aimed to estimate the number of severe pneumonia episodes, pneumococcal pneumonia episodes and pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010. We adapted and parameterized a mathematical model based on the epidemiological concept of potential impact fraction developed CHERG for this analysis. The key parameters that determine the distribution of severe pneumonia episode across Indian states were state-specific under-5 population, state-specific prevalence of selected definite pneumonia risk factors and meta-estimates of relative risks for each of these risk factors. We applied the incidence estimates and attributable fraction of risk factors to population estimates for 2010 of each Indian state. We then estimated the number of pneumococcal pneumonia cases by applying the vaccine probe methodology to an existing trial. We estimated mortality due to severe pneumonia and pneumococcal pneumonia by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from multi-centric hospital-based studies. Our results suggest that in 2010, 3.6 million (3.3–3.9 million) episodes of severe pneumonia and 0.35 million (0.31–0.40 million) all cause pneumonia deaths occurred in children younger than 5 years in India. The states that merit special mention include Uttar Pradesh where 18.1% children reside but contribute 24% of pneumonia cases and 26% pneumonia deaths, Bihar (11.3% children, 16% cases, 22% deaths) Madhya Pradesh (6.6% children, 9% cases, 12% deaths), and Rajasthan (6.6% children, 8% cases, 11% deaths). Further, we estimated that 0.56 million (0.49–0.64 million) severe episodes of pneumococcal pneumonia and 105 thousand (92–119 thousand) pneumococcal deaths occurred in India. The top contributors to India’s pneumococcal pneumonia burden were Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in that order. Our results highlight the need to improve access to care and increase coverage and equity of pneumonia preventing vaccines in states with high pneumonia burden. PMID:26086700

Estimating Achievement Gaps from Test Scores Reported in Ordinal "Proficiency" Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Andrew D.; Reardon, Sean F.

2012-01-01

Test scores are commonly reported in a small number of ordered categories. Examples of such reporting include state accountability testing, Advanced Placement tests, and English proficiency tests. This paper introduces and evaluates methods for estimating achievement gaps on a familiar standard-deviation-unit metric using data from these ordered…

Tin recycling in the United States in 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlin, James F.

2001-01-01

This materials flow study includes a description of tin supply and demand factors for the United States to illustrate the extent of tin recycling and to identify recycling trends. Understanding the flow of materials from source to ultimate disposition can assist in improving the management of the use of natural resources in a manner that is compatible with sound environmental practices. The quantity of tin recycled in 1998 as a percentage of apparent tin supply was estimated to be about 22%, and recycling efficiency was estimated to be 75%. Of the total tin consumed in products for the U.S. market in 1998, an estimated 12% was consumed in products where the tin was not recyclable (dissipative uses).

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

The Economic Burden of Vision Loss and Eye Disorders among the United States Population Younger than 40 Years

PubMed Central

Wittenborn, John S.; Zhang, Xinzhi; Feagan, Charles W.; Crouse, Wesley L.; Shrestha, Sundar; Kemper, Alex R.; Hoerger, Thomas J.; Saaddine, Jinan B.

2017-01-01

Objective To estimate the economic burden of vision loss and eye disorders in the United States population younger than 40 years in 2012. Design Econometric and statistical analysis of survey, commercial claims, and census data. Participants The United States population younger than 40 years in 2012. Methods We categorized costs based on consensus guidelines. We estimated medical costs attributable to diagnosed eye-related disorders, undiagnosed vision loss, and medical vision aids using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and MarketScan data. The prevalence of vision impairment and blindness were estimated using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. We estimated costs from lost productivity using Survey of Income and Program Participation. We estimated costs of informal care, low vision aids, special education, school screening, government spending, and transfer payments based on published estimates and federal budgets. We estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost based on published utility values. Main Outcome Measures Costs and QALYs lost in 2012. Results The economic burden of vision loss and eye disorders among the United States population younger than 40 years was $27.5 billion in 2012 (95% confidence interval, $21.5–$37.2 billion), including $5.9 billion for children and $21.6 billion for adults 18 to 39 years of age. Direct costs were $14.5 billion, including $7.3 billion in medical costs for diagnosed disorders, $4.9 billion in refraction correction, $0.5 billion in medical costs for undiagnosed vision loss, and $1.8 billion in other direct costs. Indirect costs were $13 billion, primarily because of $12.2 billion in productivity losses. In addition, vision loss cost society 215 000 QALYs. Conclusions We found a substantial burden resulting from vision loss and eye disorders in the United States population younger than 40 years, a population excluded from previous studies. Monetizing quality-of-life losses at $50 000 per QALY would add $10.8 billion in additional costs, indicating a total economic burden of $38.2 billion. Relative to previously reported estimates for the population 40 years of age and older, more than one third of the total cost of vision loss and eye disorders may be incurred by persons younger than 40 years. PMID:23631946

A novel approach of battery pack state of health estimation using artificial intelligence optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xu; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai

2018-02-01

An accurate battery pack state of health (SOH) estimation is important to characterize the dynamic responses of battery pack and ensure the battery work with safety and reliability. However, the different performances in battery discharge/charge characteristics and working conditions in battery pack make the battery pack SOH estimation difficult. In this paper, the battery pack SOH is defined as the change of battery pack maximum energy storage. It contains all the cells' information including battery capacity, the relationship between state of charge (SOC) and open circuit voltage (OCV), and battery inconsistency. To predict the battery pack SOH, the method of particle swarm optimization-genetic algorithm is applied in battery pack model parameters identification. Based on the results, a particle filter is employed in battery SOC and OCV estimation to avoid the noise influence occurring in battery terminal voltage measurement and current drift. Moreover, a recursive least square method is used to update cells' capacity. Finally, the proposed method is verified by the profiles of New European Driving Cycle and dynamic test profiles. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can estimate the battery states with high accuracy for actual operation. In addition, the factors affecting the change of SOH is analyzed.

The benefits of improved technologies in agricultural aviation. [economic impact and aircraft configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The economic benefits attributable to a variety of potential technological improvements in agricultural aviation are discussed. Topics covered include: the ag-air industry, the data base used to estimate the potential benefits and a summary of the potential benefits from technological improvements; ag-air activities in the United States; foreign ag-air activities; major ag-air aircraft is use and manufacturers' sales and distribution networks; and estimates of the benefits to the United States of proposed technological improvements to the aircraft and dispersal equipment. A bibliography of references is appended.

Polarimetric Radar Observations of Forest State for Determination of Ecosystem Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.; Dobson, M. Craig; Sharik, T.

1996-01-01

The objectives of this research are to test the hypotheses that ecologically significant forest state parameters may be estimated from SAR data. These include estimation of above ground biomass, plant water status, and near surface soil moisture under certain forest conditions. Test hypotheses in the northern hardwoods forest community, refine them if necessary, and establish techniques for retrieving this information from orbital SARs such as SIR-C/X-SAR. This report summarizes (1) recent progress, (2) significant results and (3) research plans concerning SIR-C/X-SAR research.

Public supply and domestic water use in the United States, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dieter, Cheryl A.; Maupin, Molly A.

2017-10-30

IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Use Science Project (NWUSP), part of the USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP), has estimated water use in the United States every 5 years since 1950. This report provides an overview of total population, public-supply use, including the population that is served by public-supply systems and the domestic deliveries to those users, and self-supplied domestic water use in the United States for 2015, continuing the task of estimating water use in the United States every 5 years. In this report, estimates for the United States include the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (hereafter referred to as “states” for brevity).County-level data for total population, public-supply withdrawals and the population served by public-supply systems, and domestic withdrawals for 2015 were published in a data release in an effort to provide data to the public in a timely manner. Data in the current version (1.0) of Dieter and others (2017) contains county-level total withdrawals from groundwater and surface-water sources (both fresh and saline) for public-water supply, the deliveries from those suppliers to domestic users, and the quantities of water from groundwater and surface-water sources for self-supplied domestic users, and total population. Methods used to estimate the various data elements for the public-supply and domestic use categories at the county level are described by Bradley (2017).This Open-File Report is an interim report summarizing the data published in Dieter and others (2017) at the state and national level. This report includes discussions on the total population, totals for public-supply withdrawals and population served, total domestic withdrawals, and provides comparisons of the 2015 estimates to 2010 estimates (Maupin and others, 2014). Total domestic water use, as described in this report, represents the summation of deliveries from public-water supply to domestic users plus self-supplied domestic withdrawals.Values for 2010 are the best available data for 2010 from the USGS Aggregate Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). The 2010 values presented in this report may have been revised from 2010 values published in Maupin and others (2014), and therefore values for 2010 in this report may not exactly match values in Maupin and others (2014).Withdrawal and population values in this report are rounded to three significant figures. All values are rounded independently, so the sums of individually rounded numbers may not equal the totals. Percent change is calculated on unrounded data and is expressed as an integer. Differences between 2010 and 2015 values are calculated on unrounded data, then the differences are rounded.

Measuring the Benefits of Clean Air and Water.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kneese, Allen V.

This book examines the current state of the art regarding benefits assessment, including such tools as bidding games, surveys, property-value studies, wage differentials, risk reduction evaluation, and mortality and morbidity cost estimation. It is based on research, sponsored by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, related to the…

Federal Guidance Report No. 4: Estimates and Evaluation of Fallout in the United States from Nuclear Weapons Testing Conducted Through 1962

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Federal Radiation Council report includes a full study and analysis of fallout expected in 1963 from nuclear testing that occurred in the past. This report covers fallout expected from Soviet and United States tests through 1962.

Chapter E: History and Overview of the U.S. Diatomite Mining Industry, with Emphasis on the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyle, Phillip R.; Dolley, Thomas P.

2003-01-01

The United States is the largest producer and consumer of diatomite in the world. In 2001, the United States produced about a third of the estimated global production of 1.95 million metric tons (Mt) of diatomite (Dolley, 2003). In any given year, the United States accounts for at least 50 percent of all the diatomite exported in the world (Roskill, 1994). Seven diatomite companies operating in the United States produce diatomite in various grades for a range of applications, including filtration, absorbents, fillers, insulation, and cement manufacture. Economic deposits of diatomite within the United States depend on variations in the physical and chemical properties between and within deposits, potential end uses, and proximity to suitable markets. On the basis of historical production figures, estimated U.S. diatomite-production capacity is currently about 800,000 metric tons per year (t/yr).

Practical Bayesian tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

2016-03-01

In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

Results of a State-Wide Evaluation of “Paperwork Burden” in Addiction Treatment

PubMed Central

Carise, Deni; Love, Meghan; Zur, Julia; McLellan, A. Thomas; Kemp, Jack

2009-01-01

This article chronicles three steps taken by research, clinical and state staff towards assessing, evaluating and streamlining clinical and administrative paperwork at all public outpatient addiction treatment programs in 1 state. The first step was an accounting of all paperwork requirements at each program. Step two included the development of time estimates for the paperwork requirements, synthesis of information across sites, providing written evaluation of the need, utility and redundancy of all forms (paperwork) collected, and suggestions for eliminating unused or unnecessary data collection and streamlining the remaining data collection. Thirdly, the state agency hosted a meeting with the state staff, researchers and staff from all programs and agencies with state-funded contracts and took action. Paperwork reductions over the course of a 6-month outpatient treatment episode were estimated at 4 – 6 hours, with most of the time burden being eliminated from the intake process. PMID:19150201

Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

2009-07-01

Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

Refining Markov state models for conformational dynamics using ensemble-averaged data and time-series trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsunaga, Y.; Sugita, Y.

2018-06-01

A data-driven modeling scheme is proposed for conformational dynamics of biomolecules based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and experimental measurements. In this scheme, an initial Markov State Model (MSM) is constructed from MD simulation trajectories, and then, the MSM parameters are refined using experimental measurements through machine learning techniques. The second step can reduce the bias of MD simulation results due to inaccurate force-field parameters. Either time-series trajectories or ensemble-averaged data are available as a training data set in the scheme. Using a coarse-grained model of a dye-labeled polyproline-20, we compare the performance of machine learning estimations from the two types of training data sets. Machine learning from time-series data could provide the equilibrium populations of conformational states as well as their transition probabilities. It estimates hidden conformational states in more robust ways compared to that from ensemble-averaged data although there are limitations in estimating the transition probabilities between minor states. We discuss how to use the machine learning scheme for various experimental measurements including single-molecule time-series trajectories.

The Estimated Annual Cost of Uterine Leiomyomata in the United States

PubMed Central

CARDOZO, Eden R.; CLARK, Andrew D.; BANKS, Nicole K.; HENNE, Melinda B.; STEGMANN, Barbara J.; SEGARS, James H.

2011-01-01

Objective To estimate the total annual societal cost of uterine fibroids in the United States, based on direct and indirect costs, including associated obstetric complications. Study Design A systematic review of the literature was conducted to estimate the number of women seeking treatment for symptomatic fibroids annually, the costs of medical and surgical treatment, work lost and obstetric complications attributable to fibroids. Total annual costs were converted to 2010 U.S. dollars. A sensitivity analysis was performed. Results The estimated annual direct costs (surgery, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, medications) were $4.1 to $9.4 billion. Estimated lost work costs ranged from $1.55 to $17.2 billion annually. Obstetric outcomes attributed to fibroids resulted in a cost of $238 million to $7.76 billion annually. Uterine fibroids were estimated to cost the US $5.9 to $34.4 billion annually. Conclusions Obstetric complications associated with fibroids contributed significantly to their economic burden. Lost work costs may account for the largest proportion of societal costs due to fibroids. PMID:22244472

The United States Marine Corps in Cyberspace: Every Marine a Cyber Warrior

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and...maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other...TillS COLLECTION OF INFORMATION IS ESTIMATED TO AVERAGE I HOUR PER RESPONSE, INCWDING TIlE TIME FOR REVIEWING INSTRUCTIONS. SEARCHING E.’\\’lSTING

Nonlinear Symplectic Attitude Estimation for Small Satellites

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

Vol. 45, No. 3, 2000, pp. 477-482. 7 Gelb, A., editor, Applied Optimal Estimation, The M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, MA, 1974. ’ Brown , R. G. and Hwang , P. Y...demonstrate orders of magnitude improvement in state and constants of motion estimation when compared to extended and iterative Kalman methods...satellites have fallen into the former category, including the ubiquitous Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).2 𔄁- 9 While this approach has been used

Probability based remaining capacity estimation using data-driven and neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Chen, Zonghai

2016-05-01

Since large numbers of lithium-ion batteries are composed in pack and the batteries are complex electrochemical devices, their monitoring and safety concerns are key issues for the applications of battery technology. An accurate estimation of battery remaining capacity is crucial for optimization of the vehicle control, preventing battery from over-charging and over-discharging and ensuring the safety during its service life. The remaining capacity estimation of a battery includes the estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-energy (SOE). In this work, a probability based adaptive estimator is presented to obtain accurate and reliable estimation results for both SOC and SOE. For the SOC estimation, an n ordered RC equivalent circuit model is employed by combining an electrochemical model to obtain more accurate voltage prediction results. For the SOE estimation, a sliding window neural network model is proposed to investigate the relationship between the terminal voltage and the model inputs. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model and estimation algorithm, experiments under different dynamic operation current profiles are performed on the commercial 1665130-type lithium-ion batteries. The results illustrate that accurate and robust estimation can be obtained by the proposed method.

Methods for Estimating Annual Wastewater Nutrient Loads in the Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, Gerard; Tervelt, Larinda; Donehoo, William

2007-01-01

This report describes an approach for estimating annual total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads from point-source dischargers in the southeastern United States. Nutrient load estimates for 2002 were used in the calibration and application of a regional nutrient model, referred to as the SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) watershed model. Loads from dischargers permitted under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System were calculated using data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Permit Compliance System database and individual state databases. Site information from both state and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency databases, including latitude and longitude and monitored effluent data, was compiled into a project database. For sites with a complete effluent-monitoring record, effluent-flow and nutrient-concentration data were used to develop estimates of annual point-source nitrogen and phosphorus loads. When flow data were available but nutrient-concentration data were missing or incomplete, typical pollutant-concentration values of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were used to estimate load. In developing typical pollutant-concentration values, the major factors assumed to influence wastewater nutrient-concentration variability were the size of the discharger (the amount of flow), the season during which discharge occurred, and the Standard Industrial Classification code of the discharger. One insight gained from this study is that in order to gain access to flow, concentration, and location data, close communication and collaboration are required with the agencies that collect and manage the data. In addition, the accuracy and usefulness of the load estimates depend on the willingness of the states and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to provide guidance and review for at least a subset of the load estimates that may be problematic.

The 2 SOPS Ephemeris Enhancement Endeavor (EEE)

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-12-01

reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching...if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1 . REPORT DATE DEC 1997 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-1997 to 00-00-1997 4...deficiencies. They include: 1 . Solar Pressure States. A 1995 study revealed that some deficiencies exist within the solar state model used by the

Markov state models from short non-equilibrium simulations—Analysis and correction of estimation bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nüske, Feliks; Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Wehmeyer, Christoph; Clementi, Cecilia; Noé, Frank

2017-03-01

Many state-of-the-art methods for the thermodynamic and kinetic characterization of large and complex biomolecular systems by simulation rely on ensemble approaches, where data from large numbers of relatively short trajectories are integrated. In this context, Markov state models (MSMs) are extremely popular because they can be used to compute stationary quantities and long-time kinetics from ensembles of short simulations, provided that these short simulations are in "local equilibrium" within the MSM states. However, over the last 15 years since the inception of MSMs, it has been controversially discussed and not yet been answered how deviations from local equilibrium can be detected, whether these deviations induce a practical bias in MSM estimation, and how to correct for them. In this paper, we address these issues: We systematically analyze the estimation of MSMs from short non-equilibrium simulations, and we provide an expression for the error between unbiased transition probabilities and the expected estimate from many short simulations. We show that the unbiased MSM estimate can be obtained even from relatively short non-equilibrium simulations in the limit of long lag times and good discretization. Further, we exploit observable operator model (OOM) theory to derive an unbiased estimator for the MSM transition matrix that corrects for the effect of starting out of equilibrium, even when short lag times are used. Finally, we show how the OOM framework can be used to estimate the exact eigenvalues or relaxation time scales of the system without estimating an MSM transition matrix, which allows us to practically assess the discretization quality of the MSM. Applications to model systems and molecular dynamics simulation data of alanine dipeptide are included for illustration. The improved MSM estimator is implemented in PyEMMA of version 2.3.

Structure Assembly by a Heterogeneous Team of Robots Using State Estimation, Generalized Joints, and Mobile Parallel Manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komendera, Erik E.; Adhikari, Shaurav; Glassner, Samantha; Kishen, Ashwin; Quartaro, Amy

2017-01-01

Autonomous robotic assembly by mobile field robots has seen significant advances in recent decades, yet practicality remains elusive. Identified challenges include better use of state estimation to and reasoning with uncertainty, spreading out tasks to specialized robots, and implementing representative joining methods. This paper proposes replacing 1) self-correcting mechanical linkages with generalized joints for improved applicability, 2) assembly serial manipulators with parallel manipulators for higher precision and stability, and 3) all-in-one robots with a heterogeneous team of specialized robots for agent simplicity. This paper then describes a general assembly algorithm utilizing state estimation. Finally, these concepts are tested in the context of solar array assembly, requiring a team of robots to assemble, bond, and deploy a set of solar panel mockups to a backbone truss to an accuracy not built into the parts. This paper presents the results of these tests.

Pathologic Criteria to Estimate the State of the Liver in Potential Donors.

PubMed

Shaimardanova, Caliya; Fedotovskikh, Galina; Savchuk, Aleksandr; Doszhan, Ainura; Smagulova, Aigerim; Gaipov, Abduzhappar

2015-11-01

The pathologic evaluation of the liver is one of the most important issues in liver transplants. We evaluated the histopathological condition of livers in potential donors. After liver biopsy, 37 potential donor livers were histologically studied. Liver tissue was stained by hematoxylin and eosin as well as Masson Trichrome. The results of the study showed the morphologic criteria used to estimate the state of the liver in potential donors is not only steatosis and fibrosis, but other important histologic criteria, such as proteinosis, necrosis of hepatocytes, endotheliitis of central veins, inflammatory infiltration, endarteritis in portal tracts and phlebitis in portal tracts, proliferation of the bile ducts, and cholestasis. Results of the study showed that the morphologic criteria to estimate the state of the liver in potential donors includes not only steatosis and fibrosis, but other important histologic criteria as well.

Estimating the geographical distribution of the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in young Mexicans.

PubMed

Murguía-Romero, Miguel; Jiménez-Flores, Rafael; Villalobos-Molina, Rafael; Méndez-Cruz, Adolfo René

2012-09-01

The geographical distribution of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalence in young Mexicans (aged 17-24 years) was estimated stepwise starting from its prevalence based on the body mass index (BMI) in a study of 3,176 undergraduate students of this age group from Mexico City. To estimate the number of people with MetS by state, we multiplied its prevalence derived from the BMI range found in the Mexico City sample by the BMI proportions (range and state) obtained from the Mexico 2006 national survey on health and nutrition. Finally, to estimate the total number of young people with MetS in Mexico, its prevalence by state was multiplied by the share of young population in each state according to the National Population and Housing Census 2010. Based on these figures, we estimated the national prevalence of MetS at 15.8%, the average BMI at 24.1 (standard deviation = 4.2), and the prevalence of overweight people (BMI ≥25) of that age group at 39.0%. These results imply that 2,588,414 young Mexicans suffered from MetS in 2010. The Yucatan peninsula in the south and the Sonora state in the north showed the highest rates of MetS prevalence. The calculation of the MetS prevalence by BMI range in a sample of the population, and extrapolating it using the BMI proportions by range of the total population, was found to be a useful approach. We conclude that the BMI is a valuable public health tool to estimate MetS prevalence in the whole country, including its geographical distribution.

Estimates of inorganic nitrogen wet deposition from precipitation for the conterminous United States, 1955-84

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Ludtke, Amy S.; Knifong, Donna L.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment program requires nutrient input information for analysis of national and regional assessment of water quality. Historical data are needed to lengthen the data record for assessment of trends in water quality. This report provides estimates of inorganic nitrogen deposition from precipitation for the conterminous United States for 1955–56, 1961–65, and 1981–84. The estimates were derived from ammonium, nitrate, and inorganic nitrogen concentrations in atmospheric wet deposition and precipitation-depth data. This report documents the sources of these data and the methods that were used to estimate the inorganic nitrogen deposition. Tabular datasets, including the analytical results, precipitation depth, and calculated site-specific precipitation-weighted concentrations, and raster datasets of nitrogen from wet deposition are provided as appendixes in this report.

Ensemble Kalman filters for dynamical systems with unresolved turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grooms, Ian, E-mail: grooms@cims.nyu.edu; Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

Ensemble Kalman filters are developed for turbulent dynamical systems where the forecast model does not resolve all the active scales of motion. Coarse-resolution models are intended to predict the large-scale part of the true dynamics, but observations invariably include contributions from both the resolved large scales and the unresolved small scales. The error due to the contribution of unresolved scales to the observations, called ‘representation’ or ‘representativeness’ error, is often included as part of the observation error, in addition to the raw measurement error, when estimating the large-scale part of the system. It is here shown how stochastic superparameterization (amore » multiscale method for subgridscale parameterization) can be used to provide estimates of the statistics of the unresolved scales. In addition, a new framework is developed wherein small-scale statistics can be used to estimate both the resolved and unresolved components of the solution. The one-dimensional test problem from dispersive wave turbulence used here is computationally tractable yet is particularly difficult for filtering because of the non-Gaussian extreme event statistics and substantial small scale turbulence: a shallow energy spectrum proportional to k{sup −5/6} (where k is the wavenumber) results in two-thirds of the climatological variance being carried by the unresolved small scales. Because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, filters that ignore the representation error fail utterly to provide meaningful estimates of the system state. Inclusion of a time-independent climatological estimate of the representation error in a standard framework leads to inaccurate estimates of the large-scale part of the signal; accurate estimates of the large scales are only achieved by using stochastic superparameterization to provide evolving, large-scale dependent predictions of the small-scale statistics. Again, because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, even an accurate estimate of the large-scale part of the system does not provide an accurate estimate of the true state. By providing simultaneous estimates of both the large- and small-scale parts of the solution, the new framework is able to provide accurate estimates of the true system state.« less

Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

Regression Equations for Estimating Flood Flows at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Ungaged Streams in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2008-01-01

Regression equations were developed for estimating flood flows at selected recurrence intervals for ungaged streams in Pennsylvania with drainage areas less than 2,000 square miles. These equations were developed utilizing peak-flow data from 322 streamflow-gaging stations within Pennsylvania and surrounding states. All stations used in the development of the equations had 10 or more years of record and included active and discontinued continuous-record as well as crest-stage partial-record stations. The state was divided into four regions, and regional regression equations were developed to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flood flows. The equations were developed by means of a regression analysis that utilized basin characteristics and flow data associated with the stations. Significant explanatory variables at the 95-percent confidence level for one or more regression equations included the following basin characteristics: drainage area; mean basin elevation; and the percentages of carbonate bedrock, urban area, and storage within a basin. The regression equations can be used to predict the magnitude of flood flows for specified recurrence intervals for most streams in the state; however, they are not valid for streams with drainage areas generally greater than 2,000 square miles or with substantial regulation, diversion, or mining activity within the basin. Estimates of flood-flow magnitude and frequency for streamflow-gaging stations substantially affected by upstream regulation are also presented.

Conducting Return on Investment Analyses for Secondary and Postsecondary CTE: A Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hollenbeck, Kevin M.

2011-01-01

In recent work, the author has estimated the rate of return for several workforce development programs in the State of Washington, including secondary and postsecondary career and technical education (CTE; Hollenbeck, 2008). The returns are based on estimates of the net impact of CTE on individuals' labor market experiences and government income…

Forest-Based Biomass Supply Curves for the United States

Treesearch

Kenneth Skog; Jamie Barbour; Marilyn Buford; Dennis Drykstra; Patti Lebow; Pat Miles; Bob Perlack; Bryce Stokes

2013-01-01

Nationwide, county-level supply curves have been estimated for forest-based biomass to evaluate their potential contributions to producing biofuels. This study builds on the estimates of potential supply in the Billion Ton Supply study prepared by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Energy. Forest biomass sources include logging...

A survey of the state of the art and focused research in range systems, task 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yao, K.

1986-01-01

Contract generated publications are compiled which describe the research activities for the reporting period. Study topics include: equivalent configurations of systolic arrays; least squares estimation algorithms with systolic array architectures; modeling and equilization of nonlinear bandlimited satellite channels; and least squares estimation and Kalman filtering by systolic arrays.

Methane Emissions from the Natural Gas Transmission and Storage System in the United States.

PubMed

Zimmerle, Daniel J; Williams, Laurie L; Vaughn, Timothy L; Quinn, Casey; Subramanian, R; Duggan, Gerald P; Willson, Bryan; Opsomer, Jean D; Marchese, Anthony J; Martinez, David M; Robinson, Allen L

2015-08-04

The recent growth in production and utilization of natural gas offers potential climate benefits, but those benefits depend on lifecycle emissions of methane, the primary component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. This study estimates methane emissions from the transmission and storage (T&S) sector of the United States natural gas industry using new data collected during 2012, including 2,292 onsite measurements, additional emissions data from 677 facilities and activity data from 922 facilities. The largest emission sources were fugitive emissions from certain compressor-related equipment and "super-emitter" facilities. We estimate total methane emissions from the T&S sector at 1,503 [1,220 to 1,950] Gg/yr (95% confidence interval) compared to the 2012 Environmental Protection Agency's Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI) estimate of 2,071 [1,680 to 2,690] Gg/yr. While the overlap in confidence intervals indicates that the difference is not statistically significant, this is the result of several significant, but offsetting, factors. Factors which reduce the study estimate include a lower estimated facility count, a shift away from engines toward lower-emitting turbine and electric compressor drivers, and reductions in the usage of gas-driven pneumatic devices. Factors that increase the study estimate relative to the GHGI include updated emission rates in certain emission categories and explicit treatment of skewed emissions at both component and facility levels. For T&S stations that are required to report to the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), this study estimates total emissions to be 260% [215% to 330%] of the reportable emissions for these stations, primarily due to the inclusion of emission sources that are not reported under the GHGRP rules, updated emission factors, and super-emitter emissions.

Quality of Life...Investing in Our Children's Future. The Case for Building and Maintaining Our Public Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Associated General Contractors of America, Washington, DC.

A report statistically examines the problem of deferred maintenance in U.S. public schools, including the repair funding required to comply with federal mandates in the next 3 years; federal, state, and local contributions by state in 1991-92; the estimated percentage of schools needing repairs listed by state; and the changes in apportionment of…

Inventory of Data Sources for Estimating Health Care Costs in the United States

PubMed Central

Lund, Jennifer L.; Yabroff, K. Robin; Ibuka, Yoko; Russell, Louise B.; Barnett, Paul G.; Lipscomb, Joseph; Lawrence, William F.; Brown, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Objective To develop an inventory of data sources for estimating health care costs in the United States and provide information to aid researchers in identifying appropriate data sources for their specific research questions. Methods We identified data sources for estimating health care costs using 3 approaches: (1) a review of the 18 articles included in this supplement, (2) an evaluation of websites of federal government agencies, non profit foundations, and related societies that support health care research or provide health care services, and (3) a systematic review of the recently published literature. Descriptive information was abstracted from each data source, including sponsor, website, lowest level of data aggregation, type of data source, population included, cross-sectional or longitudinal data capture, source of diagnosis information, and cost of obtaining the data source. Details about the cost elements available in each data source were also abstracted. Results We identified 88 data sources that can be used to estimate health care costs in the United States. Most data sources were sponsored by government agencies, national or nationally representative, and cross-sectional. About 40% were surveys, followed by administrative or linked administrative data, fee or cost schedules, discharges, and other types of data. Diagnosis information was available in most data sources through procedure or diagnosis codes, self-report, registry, or chart review. Cost elements included inpatient hospitalizations (42.0%), physician and other outpatient services (45.5%), outpatient pharmacy or laboratory (28.4%), out-of-pocket (22.7%), patient time and other direct nonmedical costs (35.2%), and wages (13.6%). About half were freely available for downloading or available for a nominal fee, and the cost of obtaining the remaining data sources varied by the scope of the project. Conclusions Available data sources vary in population included, type of data source, scope, and accessibility, and have different strengths and weaknesses for specific research questions. PMID:19536009

A Geography-Specific Approach to Estimating the Distributional Impact of Highway Tolls: An Application to the Puget Sound Region of Washington State

PubMed Central

Plotnick, Robert D.; Romich, Jennifer; Thacker, Jennifer; Dunbar, Matthew

2011-01-01

This study contributes to the debate about tolls’ equity impacts by examining the potential economic costs of tolling for low-income and non-low-income households. Using data from the Puget Sound metropolitan region in Washington State and GIS methods to map driving routes from home to work, we examine car ownership and transportation patterns among low-income and non-low-income households. We follow standard practice of estimating tolls’ potential impact only on households with workers who would drive on tolled and non-tolled facilities. We then redo the analysis including broader groups of households. We find that the degree of regressivity is quite sensitive to the set of households included in the analysis. The results suggest that distributional analyses of tolls should estimate impacts on all households in the relevant region in addition to impacts on just users of roads that are currently tolled or likely to be tolled. PMID:21818172

Inertial and time-of-arrival ranging sensor fusion.

PubMed

Vasilyev, Paul; Pearson, Sean; El-Gohary, Mahmoud; Aboy, Mateo; McNames, James

2017-05-01

Wearable devices with embedded kinematic sensors including triaxial accelerometers, gyroscopes, and magnetometers are becoming widely used in applications for tracking human movement in domains that include sports, motion gaming, medicine, and wellness. The kinematic sensors can be used to estimate orientation, but can only estimate changes in position over short periods of time. We developed a prototype sensor that includes ultra wideband ranging sensors and kinematic sensors to determine the feasibility of fusing the two sensor technologies to estimate both orientation and position. We used a state space model and applied the unscented Kalman filter to fuse the sensor information. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to estimate orientation and position with less error than is possible with either sensor technology alone. In our experiment we obtained a position root mean square error of 5.2cm and orientation error of 4.8° over a 15min recording. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Different Assimilation Methodologies on Crop Yield Estimates Using Active and Passive Microwave Dataset at L-Band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.; Bongiovanni, T. E.; Monsivais-Huertero, A.; Bindlish, R.; Judge, J.

2013-12-01

Accurate estimates of crop yield are important for managing agricultural production and food security. Although the crop growth models, such as the Decision Support System Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), have been used to simulate crop growth and development, the crop yield estimates still diverge from the reality due to different sources of errors in the models and computation. Auxiliary observations may be incorporated into such dynamic models to improve predictions using data assimilation. Active and passive (AP) microwave observations at L-band (1-2 GHz) are sensitive to dielectric and geometric properties of soil and vegetation, including soil moisture (SM), vegetation water content (VWC), surface roughness, and vegetation structure. Because SM and VWC are one of the governing factors in estimating crop yield, microwave observations may be used to improve crop yield estimates. Current studies have shown that active observations are more sensitive to the surface roughness of soil and vegetation structure during the growing season, while the passive observations are more sensitive to the SM. Backscatter and emission models linked with the DSSAT model (DSSAT-A-P) allow assimilation of microwave observations of backscattering coefficient (σ0) and brightness temperature (TB) may provide biophysically realistic estimates of model states and parameters. The present ESA Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission provides passive observations at 1.41 GHz at 25 km every 2-3 days, and the NASA/CNDAE Aquarius mission provides L-band AP observations at spatial resolution of 150 km with a repeat coverage of 7 days for global SM products. In 2014, the planned NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission will provide AP observations at 1.26 and 1.41 GHz at the spatial resolutions of 3 and 30 km, respectively, with a repeat coverage of 2-3 days. The goal of this study is to understand the impacts of assimilation of asynchronous and synchronous AP observations on crop yield estimates. An Ensemble Kalman Filter-based methodology is implemented to incorporate σ0 and TB from Aquarius and SMOS in the DSSAT-A-P model to improve crop yield for two growing seasons of soybean -a normal and a drought affected season- in the rain-fed region of the Brazilian La Plata Basin, South America. Different scenarios of assimilation, including active only, passive only, and combined AP observations were considered. The elements of the state vector included both model states and parameters related to soil and vegetation. The number of elements included in the state vector changed depending upon different scenarios of assimilation and also upon the growth stages. Crop yield estimates were compared for different scenarios during the two seasons. A synthetic experiment conducted previously showed an improvement of crop estimates in the RMSD by 90 kg/ha using combined AP compared to the openloop and active only assimilation over the region.

Impact of expanded newborn screening--United States, 2006.

PubMed

2008-09-19

Universal newborn screening for selected metabolic, endocrine, hematologic, and functional disorders is a well-established practice of state public health programs. Recent developments in tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS), which is now capable of multi-analyte analysis in a high throughput capacity, has enabled newborn screening to include many more disorders detectable from a newborn blood spot. In 2006, to address the substantial variation that existed from state to state in the number of disorders included in newborn screening panels, the American College of Medical Genetics (ACMG), under guidance from the Health Resources and Services Administration, recommended a uniform panel of 29 disorders, which was subsequently endorsed by the federal Advisory Committee on Heritable Disorders in Newborns and Children. After 2006, most states began to expand their panels to include all 29 disorders; currently, 21 states and the District of Columbia have fully implemented the ACMG panel. To estimate the burden to state newborn screening programs resulting from this expansion, CDC used 2001-2006 data from those states with well-established MS/MS screening programs to estimate the number of children in the United States who would have been identified with disorders in 2006 if all 50 states and the District of Columbia had been using the ACMG panel. This report describes the results of that analysis, which indicated that, although such an expansion would have increased the number of children identified by only 32% (from 4,370 to 6,439), these children would have had many rare disorders that require local or regional capacity to deliver expertise in screening, diagnosis, and management. The findings underscore the need for public health and health-care delivery systems to build or expand the programs required to manage the rare disorders detected through expanded newborn screening, while also continuing programs to address more common disorders.

Streamflow forecasting and data assimilation: bias in precipitation, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCreight, J. L.; Gochis, D. J.; Hoar, T.; Dugger, A. L.; Yu, W.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty in precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and model groundwater fluxes are first-order sources of error in streamflow forecasting. While near-surface estimates of soil moisture are now available from satellite, very few soil moisture observations below 5 cm depth or groundwater discharge estimates are available for operational forecasting. Radar precipitation estimates are subject to large biases, particularly during extreme events (e.g. Steiner et al., 2010) and their correction is not typically available in real-time. Streamflow data, however, are readily available in near-real-time and can be assimilated operationally to help constrain uncertainty in these uncertain states and improve streamflow forecasts. We examine the ability of streamflow observations to diagnose bias in the three most uncertain variables: precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes. We investigate strategies for their subsequent bias correction. These include spinup and calibration strategies with and without the use of data assimilation and the determination of the proper spinup timescales. Global and spatially distributed multipliers on the uncertain states included in the assimilation state vector (e.g. Seo et al., 2003) will also be evaluated. We examine real cases and observing system simulation experiments for both normal and extreme rainfall events. One of our test cases considers the Colorado Front Range flood of September 2013 where the range of disagreement amongst five precipitation estimates spanned a factor of five with only one exhibiting appreciable positive bias (Gochis et al, submitted). Our experiments are conducted using the WRF-Hydro model with the NoahMP land surface component and the data assimilation research testbed (DART). A variety of ensemble data assimilation approaches (filters) are considered. ReferencesGochis, DJ, et al. "The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013" BAMS (Submitted 4-7-14). Seo, DJ, V Koren, and N Cajina. "Real-time variational assimilation of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data into operational hydrologic forecasting." J Hydromet (2003). Steiner, Matthias, JA Smith, SJ Burges, CV Alonso, and RW Darden. "Effect of bias adjustment and rain gauge data quality control on radar rainfall estimation." WRR (1999).

A systematic evaluation of different methods for calculating adolescent vaccination levels using immunization information system data.

PubMed

Gowda, Charitha; Dong, Shiming; Potter, Rachel C; Dombkowski, Kevin J; Stokley, Shannon; Dempsey, Amanda F

2013-01-01

Immunization information systems (IISs) are valuable surveillance tools; however, population relocation may introduce bias when determining immunization coverage. We explored alternative methods for estimating the vaccine-eligible population when calculating adolescent immunization levels using a statewide IIS. We performed a retrospective analysis of the Michigan State Care Improvement Registry (MCIR) for all adolescents aged 11-18 years registered in the MCIR as of October 2010. We explored four methods for determining denominators: (1) including all adolescents with MCIR records, (2) excluding adolescents with out-of-state residence, (3) further excluding those without MCIR activity ≥ 10 years prior to the evaluation date, and (4) using a denominator based on U.S. Census data. We estimated state- and county-specific coverage levels for four adolescent vaccines. We found a 20% difference in estimated vaccination coverage between the most inclusive and restrictive denominator populations. Although there was some variability among the four methods in vaccination at the state level (2%-11%), greater variation occurred at the county level (up to 21%). This variation was substantial enough to potentially impact public health assessments of immunization programs. Generally, vaccines with higher coverage levels had greater absolute variation, as did counties with smaller populations. At the county level, using the four denominator calculation methods resulted in substantial differences in estimated adolescent immunization rates that were less apparent when aggregated at the state level. Further research is needed to ascertain the most appropriate method for estimating vaccine coverage levels using IIS data.

Attitude determination and parameter estimation using vector observations - Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis

1989-01-01

Procedures for attitude determination based on Wahba's loss function are generalized to include the estimation of parameters other than the attitude, such as sensor biases. Optimization with respect to the attitude is carried out using the q-method, which does not require an a priori estimate of the attitude. Optimization with respect to the other parameters employs an iterative approach, which does require an a priori estimate of these parameters. Conventional state estimation methods require a priori estimates of both the parameters and the attitude, while the algorithm presented in this paper always computes the exact optimal attitude for given values of the parameters. Expressions for the covariance of the attitude and parameter estimates are derived.

Societal costs of exposure to toxic substances: economic and health costs of four case studies that are candidates for environmental causation.

PubMed Central

Muir, T; Zegarac, M

2001-01-01

Four outcomes that evidence suggests are candidates for "environmental causation" were chosen for analysis: diabetes, Parkinson's disease (PD), neurodevelopmental effects and hypothyroidism, and deficits in intelligence quotient (IQ). These are an enormous burden in the United States, Canada, and other industrial countries. We review findings on actual social and economic costs, construct estimates of some of the costs from pertinent sources, and provide several hypothetical examples consistent with published evidence. Many detailed costs are estimated, but these are fragmented and missing in coverage and jurisdiction. Nonetheless, the cumulative costs identified are very large, totaling $568 billion to $793 billion per year for Canada and the United States combined. Partial Canadian costs alone are $46 billion to $52 billion per year. Specifics include diabetes (United States and Canada), $128 billion per year; PD in the United States, $13 billion to $28.5 billion per year; neurodevelopmental deficits and hypothryoidism are endemic and, including estimates of costs of childhood disorders that evidence suggests are linked, amount to $81.5 billion to $167 billion per year for the United States and $2 billion per year in Ontario; loss of 5 IQ points cost $30 billion per year in Canada and $275 billion to $326 billion per year in the United States; and hypothetical dynamic economic impacts cost another $19 billion to $92 billion per year for the United States and Canada combined. Reasoned arguments based on the weight of evidence can support the hypothesis that at least 10%, up to 50% of these costs are environmentally induced--between $57 billion and $397 billion per year. PMID:11744507

ERTS-1 data user investigation of wetlands ecology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, R. R. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery (enlarged to 1:250,000) is an excellent tool by which large area coastal marshland mapping may be undertaken. If states can sacrifice some accuracy (amount unknown at this time) in placing of boundary lines, the technique may be used to do the following: (1) estimate extent of man's impact on marshes by ditching and lagooning and accelerated successional trends; (2) place boundaries between wetland and upland and hence estimate amount of coastal marshland remaining in the state; (3) distinguish among relatively large zones of various plant species including high and low growth S. alterniflora, J. roemerianus, and S. cynosuroides; and (4) estimate marsh plant species productivity when ground based information is available.

ADULT BASIC EDUCATION. PROGRAM SUMMARY.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Office of Education (DHEW), Washington, DC.

A BRIEF DESCRIPTION IS GIVEN OF THE FEDERAL ADULT BASIC EDUCATION PROGRAM, UNDER THE ADULT EDUCATION ACT OF 1966, AT THE NATIONAL AND STATE LEVELS (INCLUDING PUERTO RICO, GUAM, AMERICAN SAMOA, AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS) AS PROVIDED BY STATE EDUCATION AGENCIES. STATISTICS FOR FISCAL YEARS 1965 AND 1966, AND ESTIMATES FOR FISCAL YEAR 1967, INDICATE…

Affordability of Higher Education: California and Other States. Presentation to the Assembly Higher Education Committee. Report 11-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Jessika

2011-01-01

This is a summary of a presentation to the Assembly Higher Education Committee on college fee and total cost comparisons of California public universities with comparator universities in other states. This summary also includes grant award estimates and net cost of college by family income.

A strategic assessment of biofuels development in the Western States

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog; Robert Rummer; Bryan Jenkins; Nathan Parker; Peter Tittman; Quinn Hart; Richard Nelson; Ed Gray; Anneliese Schmidt; Marcia Patton-Mallory; Gordon Gayle

2009-01-01

The Western Governors' Association assessment of biofuels potential in western states estimated the location and capacity of biofuels plants that could potentially be built for selected gasoline prices in 2015 using a mixed integer programming model. The model included information on forest biomass supply curves by county (developed using Forest Service FIA data...

77 FR 24206 - Agency Information Collection Request. 30-Day Public Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-23

... performance of the agency's functions; (2) the accuracy of the estimated burden; (3) ways to enhance the... key research questions, ASPE will draw on 5 primary data collections including (1) Collecting administrative cost data from ELE and non-ELE states, (2) collecting enrollment data from ELE and non-ELE states...

National Stormwater Calculator

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s National Stormwater Calculator (SWC) is a desktop application that estimates the annual amount of rainwater and frequency of runoff from a specific site anywhere in the United States (including Puerto Rico).

Statewide Groundwater Recharge Modeling in New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, F.; Cadol, D.; Newton, B. T.; Phillips, F. M.

2017-12-01

It is crucial to understand the rate and distribution of groundwater recharge in New Mexico because it not only largely defines a limit for water availability in this semi-arid state, but also is the least understood aspect of the state's water budget. With the goal of estimating groundwater recharge statewide, we are developing the Evapotranspiration and Recharge Model (ETRM), which uses existing spatial datasets to model the daily soil water balance over the state at a resolution of 250 m cell. The input datasets includes PRISM precipitation data, MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), NRCS soils data, state geology data and reference ET estimates produced by Gridded Atmospheric Data downscalinG and Evapotranspiration Tools (GADGET). The current estimated recharge presents diffuse recharge only, not focused recharge as in channels or playas. Direct recharge measurements are challenging and rare, therefore we estimate diffuse recharge using a water balance approach. The ETRM simulated runoff amount was compared with USGS gauged discharge in four selected ephemeral channels: Mogollon Creek, Zuni River, the Rio Puerco above Bernardo, and the Rio Puerco above Arroyo Chico. Result showed that focused recharge is important, and basin characteristics can be linked with watershed hydrological response. As the sparse instruments in NM provide limited help in improving estimation of focused recharge by linking basin characteristics, the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, which is one of the most densely gauged and monitored semiarid rangeland watershed for hydrology research purpose, is now being modeled with ETRM. Higher spatial resolution of field data is expected to enable detailed comparison of model recharge results with measured transmission losses in ephemeral channels. The final ETRM product will establish an algorithm to estimate the groundwater recharge as a water budget component of the entire state of New Mexico. Reference ET estimated by GADGET suggests 10% - 22% increase by the end of this century under IPCC AR4 A2 emission scenario. ETRM will help water planning for the state to face drought brought by the climate change.

Multiensemble Markov models of molecular thermodynamics and kinetics.

PubMed

Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Wehmeyer, Christoph; Noé, Frank

2016-06-07

We introduce the general transition-based reweighting analysis method (TRAM), a statistically optimal approach to integrate both unbiased and biased molecular dynamics simulations, such as umbrella sampling or replica exchange. TRAM estimates a multiensemble Markov model (MEMM) with full thermodynamic and kinetic information at all ensembles. The approach combines the benefits of Markov state models-clustering of high-dimensional spaces and modeling of complex many-state systems-with those of the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio of exploiting biased or high-temperature ensembles to accelerate rare-event sampling. TRAM does not depend on any rate model in addition to the widely used Markov state model approximation, but uses only fundamental relations such as detailed balance and binless reweighting of configurations between ensembles. Previous methods, including the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio, discrete TRAM, and Markov state models are special cases and can be derived from the TRAM equations. TRAM is demonstrated by efficiently computing MEMMs in cases where other estimators break down, including the full thermodynamics and rare-event kinetics from high-dimensional simulation data of an all-atom protein-ligand binding model.

Multiensemble Markov models of molecular thermodynamics and kinetics

PubMed Central

Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Noé, Frank

2016-01-01

We introduce the general transition-based reweighting analysis method (TRAM), a statistically optimal approach to integrate both unbiased and biased molecular dynamics simulations, such as umbrella sampling or replica exchange. TRAM estimates a multiensemble Markov model (MEMM) with full thermodynamic and kinetic information at all ensembles. The approach combines the benefits of Markov state models—clustering of high-dimensional spaces and modeling of complex many-state systems—with those of the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio of exploiting biased or high-temperature ensembles to accelerate rare-event sampling. TRAM does not depend on any rate model in addition to the widely used Markov state model approximation, but uses only fundamental relations such as detailed balance and binless reweighting of configurations between ensembles. Previous methods, including the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio, discrete TRAM, and Markov state models are special cases and can be derived from the TRAM equations. TRAM is demonstrated by efficiently computing MEMMs in cases where other estimators break down, including the full thermodynamics and rare-event kinetics from high-dimensional simulation data of an all-atom protein–ligand binding model. PMID:27226302

Joint estimation over multiple individuals improves behavioural state inference from animal movement data.

PubMed

Jonsen, Ian

2016-02-08

State-space models provide a powerful way to scale up inference of movement behaviours from individuals to populations when the inference is made across multiple individuals. Here, I show how a joint estimation approach that assumes individuals share identical movement parameters can lead to improved inference of behavioural states associated with different movement processes. I use simulated movement paths with known behavioural states to compare estimation error between nonhierarchical and joint estimation formulations of an otherwise identical state-space model. Behavioural state estimation error was strongly affected by the degree of similarity between movement patterns characterising the behavioural states, with less error when movements were strongly dissimilar between states. The joint estimation model improved behavioural state estimation relative to the nonhierarchical model for simulated data with heavy-tailed Argos location errors. When applied to Argos telemetry datasets from 10 Weddell seals, the nonhierarchical model estimated highly uncertain behavioural state switching probabilities for most individuals whereas the joint estimation model yielded substantially less uncertainty. The joint estimation model better resolved the behavioural state sequences across all seals. Hierarchical or joint estimation models should be the preferred choice for estimating behavioural states from animal movement data, especially when location data are error-prone.

Estimating Density and Temperature Dependence of Juvenile Vital Rates Using a Hidden Markov Model

PubMed Central

McElderry, Robert M.

2017-01-01

Organisms in the wild have cryptic life stages that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions and can be difficult to survey. In this study, I used mark-recapture methods to repeatedly survey Anaea aidea (Nymphalidae) caterpillars in nature, then modeled caterpillar demography as a hidden Markov process to assess if temporal variability in temperature and density influence the survival and growth of A. aidea over time. Individual encounter histories result from the joint likelihood of being alive and observed in a particular stage, and I have included hidden states by separating demography and observations into parallel and independent processes. I constructed a demographic matrix containing the probabilities of all possible fates for each stage, including hidden states, e.g., eggs and pupae. I observed both dead and live caterpillars with high probability. Peak caterpillar abundance attracted multiple predators, and survival of fifth instars declined as per capita predation rate increased through spring. A time lag between predator and prey abundance was likely the cause of improved fifth instar survival estimated at high density. Growth rates showed an increase with temperature, but the preferred model did not include temperature. This work illustrates how state-space models can include unobservable stages and hidden state processes to evaluate how environmental factors influence vital rates of cryptic life stages in the wild. PMID:28505138

Dollars for lives: the effect of highway capital investments on traffic fatalities.

PubMed

Nguyen-Hoang, Phuong; Yeung, Ryan

2014-12-01

This study examines the effect of highway capital investments on highway fatalities. We used state-level data from the 48 contiguous states in the United States from 1968 through 2010 to estimate the effects on highway fatalities of capital expenditures and highway capital stock. We estimated these effects by controlling for a set of control variables together with state and year dummy variables and state-specific linear time trends. We found that capital expenditures and capital stock had significant and negative effects on highway fatalities. States faced with declines in gas tax revenues have already cut back drastically on spending on roads including on maintenance and capital outlay. If this trend continues, it may undermine traffic safety. While states and local governments are currently fiscally strained, it is important for them to continue investments in roadways to enhance traffic safety and, more significantly, to save lives. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of several maneuvering target tracking models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntyre, Gregory A.; Hintz, Kenneth J.

1998-07-01

The tracking of maneuvering targets is complicated by the fact that acceleration is not directly observable or measurable. Additionally, acceleration can be induced by a variety of sources including human input, autonomous guidance, or atmospheric disturbances. The approaches to tracking maneuvering targets can be divided into two categories both of which assume that the maneuver input command is unknown. One approach is to model the maneuver as a random process. The other approach assumes that the maneuver is not random and that it is either detected or estimated in real time. The random process models generally assume one of two statistical properties, either white noise or an autocorrelated noise. The multiple-model approach is generally used with the white noise model while a zero-mean, exponentially correlated acceleration approach is used with the autocorrelated noise model. The nonrandom approach uses maneuver detection to correct the state estimate or a variable dimension filter to augment the state estimate with an extra state component during a detected maneuver. Another issue with the tracking of maneuvering target is whether to perform the Kalman filter in Polar or Cartesian coordinates. This paper will examine and compare several exponentially correlated acceleration approaches in both Polar and Cartesian coordinates for accuracy and computational complexity. They include the Singer model in both Polar and Cartesian coordinates, the Singer model in Polar coordinates converted to Cartesian coordinates, Helferty's third order rational approximation of the Singer model and the Bar-Shalom and Fortmann model. This paper shows that these models all provide very accurate position estimates with only minor differences in velocity estimates and compares the computational complexity of the models.

Estimating the distribution of colored dissolved organic matter during the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment using four-dimensional variational data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Castillo, C. E.; Dwivedi, S.; Haine, T. W. N.; Ho, D. T.

2017-03-01

We diagnosed the effect of various physical processes on the distribution of mixed-layer colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and a sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer during the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment (SO GasEx). The biochemical upper ocean state estimate uses in situ and satellite biochemical and physical data in the study region, including CDOM (absorption coefficient and spectral slope), SF6, hydrography, and sea level anomaly. Modules for photobleaching of CDOM and surface transport of SF6 were coupled with an ocean circulation model for this purpose. The observed spatial and temporal variations in CDOM were captured by the state estimate without including any new biological source term for CDOM, assuming it to be negligible over the 26 days of the state estimate. Thermocline entrainment and photobleaching acted to diminish the mixed-layer CDOM with time scales of 18 and 16 days, respectively. Lateral advection of CDOM played a dominant role and increased the mixed-layer CDOM with a time scale of 12 days, whereas lateral diffusion of CDOM was negligible. A Lagrangian view on the CDOM variability was demonstrated by using the SF6 as a weighting function to integrate the CDOM fields. This and similar data assimilation methods can be used to provide reasonable estimates of optical properties, and other physical parameters over the short-term duration of a research cruise, and help in the tracking of tracer releases in large-scale oceanographic experiments, and in oceanographic process studies.

Estimating the Distribution of Colored Dissolved Organic Matter During the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment Using Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Castillo, C. E.; Dwivedi, S.; Haine, T. W. N.; Ho, D. T.

2017-01-01

We diagnosed the effect of various physical processes on the distribution of mixed-layer colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and a sulfur hexauoride (SF6) tracer during the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment (SO GasEx). The biochemical upper ocean state estimate uses in situ and satellite biochemical and physical data in the study region, including CDOM (absorption coefcient and spectral slope), SF6, hydrography, and sea level anomaly. Modules for photobleaching of CDOM and surface transport of SF6 were coupled with an ocean circulation model for this purpose. The observed spatial and temporal variations in CDOM were captured by the state estimate without including any new biological source term for CDOM, assuming it to be negligible over the 26 days of the state estimate. Thermocline entrainment and photobleaching acted to diminish the mixed-layer CDOM with time scales of 18 and 16 days, respectively. Lateral advection of CDOM played a dominant role and increased the mixed-layer CDOM with a time scale of 12 days, whereas lateral diffusion of CDOM was negligible. A Lagrangian view on the CDOM variability was demonstrated by using the SF6 as a weighting function to integrate the CDOM elds. This and similar data assimilation methods can be used to provide reasonable estimates of optical properties, and other physical parameters over the short-term duration of a research cruise, and help in the tracking of tracer releases in large-scale oceanographic experiments, and in oceanographic process studies.

The Economic Burden of Child Maltreatment in the United States And Implications for Prevention

PubMed Central

Fang, Xiangming; Brown, Derek S.; Florence, Curtis; Mercy, James A.

2013-01-01

Objectives To present new estimates of the average lifetime costs per child maltreatment victim and aggregate lifetime costs for all new child maltreatment cases incurred in 2008 using an incidence-based approach. Methods This study used the best available secondary data to develop cost per case estimates. For each cost category, the paper used attributable costs whenever possible. For those categories that attributable cost data were not available, costs were estimated as the product of incremental effect of child maltreatment on a specific outcome multiplied by the estimated cost associated with that outcome. The estimate of the aggregate lifetime cost of child maltreatment in 2008 was obtained by multiplying per-victim lifetime cost estimates by the estimated cases of new child maltreatment in 2008. Results The estimated average lifetime cost per victim of nonfatal child maltreatment is $210,012 in 2010 dollars, including $32,648 in childhood health care costs; $10,530 in adult medical costs; $144,360 in productivity losses; $7,728 in child welfare costs; $6,747 in criminal justice costs; and $7,999 in special education costs. The estimated average lifetime cost per death is $1,272,900, including $14,100 in medical costs and $1,258,800 in productivity losses. The total lifetime economic burden resulting from new cases of fatal and nonfatal child maltreatment in the United States in 2008 is approximately $124 billion. In sensitivity analysis, the total burden is estimated to be as large as $585 billion. Conclusions Compared with other health problems, the burden of child maltreatment is substantial, indicating the importance of prevention efforts to address the high prevalence of child maltreatment. PMID:22300910

Probing lithium-ion batteries' state-of-charge using ultrasonic transmission - Concept and laboratory testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Lukas; Bach, Tobias; Virsik, Wolfgang; Schmitt, Angelika; Müller, Jana; Staab, Torsten E. M.; Sextl, Gerhard

2017-03-01

For electrically powered applications such as consumer electronics and especially for electric vehicles a precise state-of-charge estimation for their lithium-ion batteries is desired to reduce aging, e.g. avoiding detrimental states-of-charge. Today, this estimation is performed by battery management systems that solely rely on charge bookkeeping and cell voltage measurements. In the present work we introduce a new, physical probe for the state-of-charge based on ultrasonic transmission. Within the simple experimental setup raised cosine pulses are applied to lithium-ion battery pouch cells, whose signals are sensitive to changes in porosity of the graphite anode during charging/dis-charging and, therefore, to the state-of-charge. The underlying physical principle can be related to Biot's theory about propagation of waves in fluid saturated porous media and by including scattering by boundary layers inside the cell.

78 FR 63248 - Labor Surplus Area Classification under Executive Orders 12073 and 10582

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-23

... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration Labor Surplus Area Classification under... Statistics unemployment estimates to make these classifications. The average unemployment rate for all states includes data for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. The basic LSA classification criteria include a ``floor...

Nonlinear estimation theory applied to orbit determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choe, C. Y.

1972-01-01

The development of an approximate nonlinear filter using the Martingale theory and appropriate smoothing properties is considered. Both the first order and the second order moments were estimated. The filter developed can be classified as a modified Gaussian second order filter. Its performance was evaluated in a simulated study of the problem of estimating the state of an interplanetary space vehicle during both a simulated Jupiter flyby and a simulated Jupiter orbiter mission. In addition to the modified Gaussian second order filter, the modified truncated second order filter was also evaluated in the simulated study. Results obtained with each of these filters were compared with numerical results obtained with the extended Kalman filter and the performance of each filter is determined by comparison with the actual estimation errors. The simulations were designed to determine the effects of the second order terms in the dynamic state relations, the observation state relations, and the Kalman gain compensation term. It is shown that the Kalman gain-compensated filter which includes only the Kalman gain compensation term is superior to all of the other filters.

Contraceptive failure in the United States

PubMed Central

Trussell, James

2013-01-01

This review provides an update of previous estimates of first-year probabilities of contraceptive failure for all methods of contraception available in the United States. Estimates are provided of probabilities of failure during typical use (which includes both incorrect and inconsistent use) and during perfect use (correct and consistent use). The difference between these two probabilities reveals the consequences of imperfect use; it depends both on how unforgiving of imperfect use a method is and on how hard it is to use that method perfectly. These revisions reflect new research on contraceptive failure both during perfect use and during typical use. PMID:21477680

75 FR 3434 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Northeast Skate Complex Fishery; Amendment 3

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-21

... analysis of dependency on the skate fishery indicates that almost 75 percent of the vessels included in the analysis have less than a 5-percent dependency on the skate fishery. The estimated impact on gross sales increases markedly in relation to dependency on the skate fishery among the 127 vessels estimated to be...

2011-12 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:12). Price Estimates for Attending Postsecondary Education Institutions. First Look. NCES 2014-166

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simone, Sean; Radwin, David; Wine, Jennifer; Siegel, Peter; Bryan, Michael

2013-01-01

This First Look publication provides price estimates for attending postsecondary education institutions using data from the 2011-12 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:12), the most comprehensive, nationally representative survey of student financing of postsecondary education in the United States. The survey includes about 95,000…

Highlights of Trends in Pregnancies and Pregnancy Rates by Outcome: Estimates for the United States, 1976-96.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ventura, Stephanie J.; Mosher, William D.; Curtin, Sally C.; Abma, Joyce C.; Henshaw, Stanley

1999-01-01

This report presents key findings from a comprehensive report on pregnancies and pregnancy rates for U.S. women. The study incorporates birth, abortion, and fetal loss data to compile national estimates of pregnancy rates according to a variety of characteristics, including age, race, Hispanic origin, and marital status. Data from the National…

MABLE Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-30

modulates or controls the state of Y). The process of identifying these relationships is analogous to what statisticians do during exploratory data ...for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching data sources...gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or

Sampling protocol, estimation, and analysis procedures for the down woody materials indicator of the FIA program

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Vicente J. Monleon

2008-01-01

The USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program conducts an inventory of forests of the United States including down woody materials (DWM). In this report we provide the rationale and context for a national inventory of DWM, describe the components sampled, discuss the sampling protocol used and corresponding estimation procedures, and provide...

State of the Recruiting Market (Briefing charts)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-26

Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per...reviewing the collection of information . Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information , including...suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis

A program to form a multidisciplinary data base and analysis for dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, L. W.; Suit, W. T.; Mayo, M. H.

1984-01-01

Diverse sets of experimental data and analysis programs have been assembled for the purpose of facilitating research in systems identification, parameter estimation and state estimation techniques. The data base analysis programs are organized to make it easy to compare alternative approaches. Additional data and alternative forms of analysis will be included as they become available.

Trouble Brewing in San Diego. Policy Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buck, Stuart

2010-01-01

The city of San Diego will face enormous budgetary pressures from the growing deficits in public pensions, both at a state and local level. In this policy brief, the author estimates that San Diego faces total of $45.4 billion, including $7.95 billion for the county pension system, $5.4 billion for the city pension system, and an estimated $30.7…

Per Capita Alcohol Consumption and Suicide Rates in the U.S., 1950-2002

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landberg, Jonas

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper was to estimate how suicide rates in the United States are affected by changes in per capita consumption during the postwar period. The analysis included Annual suicide rates and per capita alcohol consumption data (total and beverage specific) for the period 1950-2002. Gender- and age-specific models were estimated using the…

A revised annotated checklist of the Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) of the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caldwell, Broughton A.; Hudson, Patrick L.; Lenat, David R.; Smith, David

1997-01-01

A revised annotated checklist for the chironomid midges (Diptera: Chironomidae) of the southeastern United States is presented that includes the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Much of the information concerns occurrence and habitat preference records based upon the authors' data, as well as published and unpublished data. Some information is also presented that includes aspects of biology, habitat preference, bibliographic sources, and nomenclatorial changes. Based upon the present work, the chironomid fauna of the southeastern states is comprised of 189 genera (172 described, 17 informally or unofficially described) and 754 species (505 described, 17 informally or unofficially described, 33 that are assumed for generic or subgeneric presence only, 197 estimated species, and 2 species groups). Several new species synonyms and generic placements are recognized. Thirty-eight genera known from the Nearctic region remain unknown from the southeastern states. Diversity of species was greatest in the subfamily Chironominae, considering named as well as unnamed and estimated species. There were no significant changes in overall regional distribution patterns of subfamilies or habitat preferences form that which has been previously reported. The greatest totals for regional records, habitat types, and state occurrences were the Coastal Plain (378), streams (271), and North Carolina (373), respectively.

Robust Characterization of Loss Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallman, Joel J.; Barnhill, Marie; Emerson, Joseph

2015-08-01

Many physical implementations of qubits—including ion traps, optical lattices and linear optics—suffer from loss. A nonzero probability of irretrievably losing a qubit can be a substantial obstacle to fault-tolerant methods of processing quantum information, requiring new techniques to safeguard against loss that introduce an additional overhead that depends upon the loss rate. Here we present a scalable and platform-independent protocol for estimating the average loss rate (averaged over all input states) resulting from an arbitrary Markovian noise process, as well as an independent estimate of detector efficiency. Moreover, we show that our protocol gives an additional constraint on estimated parameters from randomized benchmarking that improves the reliability of the estimated error rate and provides a new indicator for non-Markovian signatures in the experimental data. We also derive a bound for the state-dependent loss rate in terms of the average loss rate.

A variational approach to parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Kaschek, Daniel; Timmer, Jens

2012-08-14

Ordinary differential equations are widely-used in the field of systems biology and chemical engineering to model chemical reaction networks. Numerous techniques have been developed to estimate parameters like rate constants, initial conditions or steady state concentrations from time-resolved data. In contrast to this countable set of parameters, the estimation of entire courses of network components corresponds to an innumerable set of parameters. The approach presented in this work is able to deal with course estimation for extrinsic system inputs or intrinsic reactants, both not being constrained by the reaction network itself. Our method is based on variational calculus which is carried out analytically to derive an augmented system of differential equations including the unconstrained components as ordinary state variables. Finally, conventional parameter estimation is applied to the augmented system resulting in a combined estimation of courses and parameters. The combined estimation approach takes the uncertainty in input courses correctly into account. This leads to precise parameter estimates and correct confidence intervals. In particular this implies that small motifs of large reaction networks can be analysed independently of the rest. By the use of variational methods, elements from control theory and statistics are combined allowing for future transfer of methods between the two fields.

Remote sensing in Iowa agriculture. [cropland inventory, soils, forestland, and crop diseases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahlstede, J. P. (Principal Investigator); Carlson, R. E.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Results include the estimation of forested and crop vegetation acreages using the ERTS-1 imagery. The methods used to achieve these estimates still require refinement, but the results appear promising. Practical applications would be directed toward achieving current land use inventories of these natural resources. This data is presently collected by sampling type surveys. If ERTS-1 can observe this and area estimates can be determined accurately, then a step forward has been achieved. Cost benefit relationship will have to be favorable. Problems still exist in these estimation techniques due to the diversity of the scene observed in the ERTS-1 imagery covering other part of Iowa. This is due to influence of topography and soils upon the adaptability of the vegetation to specific areas of the state. The state mosaic produced from ERTS-1 imagery shows these patterns very well. Research directed to acreage estimates is continuing.

On state-of-charge determination for lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhe; Huang, Jun; Liaw, Bor Yann; Zhang, Jianbo

2017-04-01

Accurate estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) of a battery through its life remains challenging in battery research. Although improved precisions continue to be reported at times, almost all are based on regression methods empirically, while the accuracy is often not properly addressed. Here, a comprehensive review is set to address such issues, from fundamental principles that are supposed to define SOC to methodologies to estimate SOC for practical use. It covers topics from calibration, regression (including modeling methods) to validation in terms of precision and accuracy. At the end, we intend to answer the following questions: 1) can SOC estimation be self-adaptive without bias? 2) Why Ah-counting is a necessity in almost all battery-model-assisted regression methods? 3) How to establish a consistent framework of coupling in multi-physics battery models? 4) To assess the accuracy in SOC estimation, statistical methods should be employed to analyze factors that contribute to the uncertainty. We hope, through this proper discussion of the principles, accurate SOC estimation can be widely achieved.

A comment on "bats killed in large numbers at United States wind energy facilities"

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huso, Manuela M.P.; Dalthorp, Dan

2014-01-01

Widespread reports of bat fatalities caused by wind turbines have raised concerns about the impacts of wind power development. Reliable estimates of the total number killed and the potential effects on populations are needed, but it is crucial that they be based on sound data. In a recent BioScience article, Hayes (2013) estimated that over 600,000 bats were killed at wind turbines in the United States in 2012. The scientific errors in the analysis are numerous, with the two most serious being that the included sites constituted a convenience sample, not a representative sample, and that the individual site estimates are derived from such different methodologies that they are inherently not comparable. This estimate is almost certainly inaccurate, but whether the actual number is much smaller, much larger, or about the same is uncertain. An accurate estimate of total bat fatality is not currently possible, given the shortcomings of the available data.

Reconsidering the use of rankings in the valuation of health states: a model for estimating cardinal values from ordinal data

PubMed Central

Salomon, Joshua A

2003-01-01

Background In survey studies on health-state valuations, ordinal ranking exercises often are used as precursors to other elicitation methods such as the time trade-off (TTO) or standard gamble, but the ranking data have not been used in deriving cardinal valuations. This study reconsiders the role of ordinal ranks in valuing health and introduces a new approach to estimate interval-scaled valuations based on aggregate ranking data. Methods Analyses were undertaken on data from a previously published general population survey study in the United Kingdom that included rankings and TTO values for hypothetical states described using the EQ-5D classification system. The EQ-5D includes five domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression) with three possible levels on each. Rank data were analysed using a random utility model, operationalized through conditional logit regression. In the statistical model, probabilities of observed rankings were related to the latent utilities of different health states, modeled as a linear function of EQ-5D domain scores, as in previously reported EQ-5D valuation functions. Predicted valuations based on the conditional logit model were compared to observed TTO values for the 42 states in the study and to predictions based on a model estimated directly from the TTO values. Models were evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between predictions and mean observations, and the root mean squared error of predictions at the individual level. Results Agreement between predicted valuations from the rank model and observed TTO values was very high, with an ICC of 0.97, only marginally lower than for predictions based on the model estimated directly from TTO values (ICC = 0.99). Individual-level errors were also comparable in the two models, with root mean squared errors of 0.503 and 0.496 for the rank-based and TTO-based predictions, respectively. Conclusions Modeling health-state valuations based on ordinal ranks can provide results that are similar to those obtained from more widely analyzed valuation techniques such as the TTO. The information content in aggregate ranking data is not currently exploited to full advantage. The possibility of estimating cardinal valuations from ordinal ranks could also simplify future data collection dramatically and facilitate wider empirical study of health-state valuations in diverse settings and population groups. PMID:14687419

Estimated United States Residential Energy Use in 2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, C A; Johnson, D M; Simon, A J

2011-12-12

A flow chart depicting energy flow in the residential sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 11,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of electricity and fuels were used throughout the United States residential sector in lighting, electronics, air conditioning, space heating, water heating, washing appliances, cooking appliances, refrigerators, and other appliances. The residential sector is powered mainly by electricity and natural gas. Other fuels used include petroleum products (fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene), biomass (wood), and on-premises solar, wind, and geothermal energy.more » The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within the residential sector.« less

1995 National assessment of United States oil and gas resources; results, methodology, and supporting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gautier, Donald L.; Dolton, G.L.; Takahashi, K.I.; Varnes, K.L.

1995-01-01

This report summarizes the results of a 3-year study of the oil and gas resources of the onshore and state waters of the United States by the U.S. Geological Survey. A parallel study of the Federal offshore is being conducted by the Minerals Management Service. Estimates are made of technically recoverable oil, including measured (proved) reserves, future additions to reserves in existing fields, and undiscovered resources. Estimates are also made of the technically recoverable conventional resources of natural gas in measured reserves, in anticipated growth of reserves in existing fields, and in undiscovered resources. Additionally, an assessment is made of recoverable resources in continuous-type (largely unconventional) accumulations in sandstones, shales, chalks, and coal beds.

Producing remote sensing-based emission estimates of prescribed burning in the contiguous United States for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2011 National Emissions Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarty, J. L.; Pouliot, G. A.; Soja, A. J.; Miller, M. E.; Rao, T.

2013-12-01

Prescribed fires in agricultural landscapes generally produce smaller burned areas than wildland fires but are important contributors to emissions impacting air quality and human health. Currently, there are a variety of available satellite-based estimates of crop residue burning, including the NOAA/NESDIS Hazard Mapping System (HMS) the Satellite Mapping Automated Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation (SMARTFIRE 2), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Official Burned Area Product (MCD45A1)), the MODIS Direct Broadcast Burned Area Product (MCD64A1) the MODIS Active Fire Product (MCD14ML), and a regionally-tuned 8-day cropland differenced Normalized Burn Ratio product for the contiguous U.S. The purpose of this NASA-funded research was to refine the regionally-tuned product utilizing higher spatial resolution crop type data from the USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer and burned area training data from field work and high resolution commercial satellite data to improve the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The final product delivered to the EPA included a detailed database of 25 different atmospheric emissions at the county level, emission distributions by crop type and seasonality, and GIS data. The resulting emission databases were shared with the U.S. EPA and regional offices, the National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWGC) Smoke Committee, and all 48 states in the contiguous U.S., with detailed error estimations for Wyoming and Indiana and detailed analyses of results for Florida, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Oregon. This work also provided opportunities in discovering the different needs of federal and state partners, including the various geospatial abilities and platforms across the many users and how to incorporate expert air quality, policy, and land management knowledge into quantitative earth observation-based estimations of prescribed fire emissions. Finally, this work created direct communication paths between federal and state partners to the scientists creating the remote sensing-based products, further improving the geospatial products and understanding of air quality impacts of prescribed burning at the state, regional, and national scales.

Effects of sea state on offshore wind resourcing in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collier, Cristina

Offshore resource assessment relies on estimating wind speeds at turbine hub height using observations typically made at substantially lower height. The methods used to adjust from observed wind speeds to hub height can impact resource estimation. The importance of directional sea state is examined, both as seasonal averages and as a function of the diurnal cycle. A General Electric 3.6 MW offshore turbine is used as a model for a power production. Including sea state increases or decreases seasonally averaged power production by roughly 1%, which is found to be an economically significant change. These changes occur because the sea state modifies the wind shear (vector wind difference between the buoy height and the moving surface) and therefore the extrapolation from the observation to hub height is affected. These seemingly small differences in capacity can alter profits by millions of dollars depending upon the size of the farm and fluctuations in price per kWh throughout the year. A 2% change in capacity factor can lead to a 10 million dollar difference from total kWh produced from a wind farm of 100 3.6MW turbines. These economic impacts can be a deciding factor in determining whether a resource is viable for development. Modification of power output due to sea states are shown for seasonal and diurnal time scales. Three regions are examined herein: West Florida, East Florida, and Nantucket Sound. The average capacity after sea state is included suggests areas around Florida could provide substantial amounts of wind power throughout three-fourths of the calendar year. At certain times of day winter average produced capacity factors in West Florida can be up to 45% more than in summer when sea state is included. Nantucket Sound capacity factors are calculated for comparison to a region near a planned United States offshore wind farm. This study provides evidence to suggest including sea state in offshore wind resource assessment causes economically significant differences for offshore wind power siting.

Consensus-based distributed estimation in multi-agent systems with time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelmawgoud, Ahmed

During the last years, research in the field of cooperative control of swarm of robots, especially Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV); have been improved due to the increase of UAV applications. The ability to track targets using UAVs has a wide range of applications not only civilian but also military as well. For civilian applications, UAVs can perform tasks including, but not limited to: map an unknown area, weather forecasting, land survey, and search and rescue missions. On the other hand, for military personnel, UAV can track and locate a variety of objects, including the movement of enemy vehicles. Consensus problems arise in a number of applications including coordination of UAVs, information processing in wireless sensor networks, and distributed multi-agent optimization. We consider a widely studied consensus algorithms for processing sensed data by different sensors in wireless sensor networks of dynamic agents. Every agent involved in the network forms a weighted average of its own estimated value of some state with the values received from its neighboring agents. We introduced a novelty of consensus-based distributed estimation algorithms. We propose a new algorithm to reach a consensus given time delay constraints. The proposed algorithm performance was observed in a scenario where a swarm of UAVs measuring the location of a ground maneuvering target. We assume that each UAV computes its state prediction and shares it with its neighbors only. However, the shared information applied to different agents with variant time delays. The entire group of UAVs must reach a consensus on target state. Different scenarios were also simulated to examine the effectiveness and performance in terms of overall estimation error, disagreement between delayed and non-delayed agents, and time to reach a consensus for each parameter contributing on the proposed algorithm.

Astrometric and Photometric Data Fusion for Mass and Surface Material Estimation using Refined Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Functions-Solar Radiation Pressure Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

model and the BRDF in the SRP model are not consistent with each other, then the resulting estimated albedo-areas and mass are inaccurate and biased...This work studies the use of physically consistent BRDF -SRP models for mass estimation. Simulation studies are used to provide an indication of the...benefits of using these new models . An unscented Kalman filter approach that includes BRDF and mass parameters in the state vector is used. The

Method of remotely estimating a rest or best lock frequency of a local station receiver using telemetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fielhauer, Karl B. (Inventor); Jensen, James R. (Inventor)

2007-01-01

A system includes a remote station and a local station having a receiver. The receiver operates in an unlocked state corresponding to its best lock frequency (BLF). The local station derives data indicative of a ratio of the BLF to a reference frequency of the receiver, and telemeters the data to the remote station. The remote station estimates the BLF based on (i) the telemetered data, and (ii) a predetermined estimate of the reference frequency.

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1985-01-01

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Irrigation water demand: A meta-analysis of price elasticities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheierling, Susanne M.; Loomis, John B.; Young, Robert A.

2006-01-01

Metaregression models are estimated to investigate sources of variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Elasticity estimates are drawn from 24 studies reported in the United States since 1963, including mathematical programming, field experiments, and econometric studies. The mean price elasticity is 0.48. Long-run elasticities, those that are most useful for policy purposes, are likely larger than the mean estimate. Empirical results suggest that estimates may be more elastic if they are derived from mathematical programming or econometric studies and calculated at a higher irrigation water price. Less elastic estimates are found to be derived from models based on field experiments and in the presence of high-valued crops.

Stable Algorithm For Estimating Airdata From Flush Surface Pressure Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen, A. (Inventor); Cobleigh, Brent R. (Inventor); Haering, Edward A., Jr. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

An airdata estimation and evaluation system and method, including a stable algorithm for estimating airdata from nonintrusive surface pressure measurements. The airdata estimation and evaluation system is preferably implemented in a flush airdata sensing (FADS) system. The system and method of the present invention take a flow model equation and transform it into a triples formulation equation. The triples formulation equation eliminates the pressure related states from the flow model equation by strategically taking the differences of three surface pressures, known as triples. This triples formulation equation is then used to accurately estimate and compute vital airdata from nonintrusive surface pressure measurements.

Statistics on Children with Visual Impairments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viisola, Michelle

This report summarizes statistical data relating to children with visual impairments, including incidence, causes, and education. Data include: (1) prevalence estimates that indicate 1 percent of persons under the age of 18 in the United States have a visual impairment that cannot be corrected with glasses; (2) the leading cause of childhood…

48 CFR 252.237-7013 - Instruction to offerors (bulk weight).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Offers shall be submitted on a unit price per pound of serviced laundry. Unit prices shall include all costs to the Government of providing the service, including pickup and delivery charges. (b) The Contracting Officer will evaluate bids based on the estimated pounds of serviced laundry stated in the...

49 CFR 211.9 - Content of rulemaking and waiver petitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... including an evaluation of anticipated impacts of the action sought; each evaluation shall include an estimate of resulting costs to the private sector, to consumers, and to Federal, State and local governments as well as an evaluation of resulting benefits, quantified to the extent practicable. Each...

Estimating the impact of newly arrived foreign-born persons on tuberculosis in the United States.

PubMed

Liu, Yecai; Painter, John A; Posey, Drew L; Cain, Kevin P; Weinberg, Michelle S; Maloney, Susan A; Ortega, Luis S; Cetron, Martin S

2012-01-01

Among approximately 163.5 million foreign-born persons admitted to the United States annually, only 500,000 immigrants and refugees are required to undergo overseas tuberculosis (TB) screening. It is unclear what extent of the unscreened nonimmigrant visitors contributes to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States. We defined foreign-born persons within 1 year after arrival in the United States as "newly arrived", and utilized data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and World Health Organization to estimate the incidence of TB among newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. During 2001 through 2008, 11,500 TB incident cases, including 291 multidrug-resistant TB incident cases, were estimated to occur among 20,989,738 person-years for the 1,479,542,654 newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. Of the 11,500 estimated TB incident cases, 41.6% (4,783) occurred among immigrants and refugees, 36.6% (4,211) among students/exchange visitors and temporary workers, 13.8% (1,589) among tourists and business travelers, and 7.3% (834) among Canadian and Mexican nonimmigrant visitors without an I-94 form (e.g., arrival-departure record). The top 3 newly arrived foreign-born populations with the largest estimated TB incident cases per 100,000 admissions were immigrants and refugees from high-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of ≥100 cases/100,000 population/year; 235.8 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% confidence interval [CI], 228.3 to 243.3), students/exchange visitors and temporary workers from high-incidence countries (60.9 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 58.5 to 63.3), and immigrants and refugees from medium-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of 15-99 cases/100,000 population/year; 55.2 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 51.6 to 58.8). Newly arrived nonimmigrant visitors contribute substantially to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States. To achieve the goals of TB elimination, direct investment in global TB control and strategies to target nonimmigrant visitors should be considered.

HIV Diversity as a Biomarker for HIV Incidence Estimation: Including a High-Resolution Melting Diversity Assay in a Multiassay Algorithm

PubMed Central

Cousins, Matthew M.; Konikoff, Jacob; Laeyendecker, Oliver; Celum, Connie; Buchbinder, Susan P.; Seage, George R.; Kirk, Gregory D.; Moore, Richard D.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Margolick, Joseph B.; Brown, Joelle; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Koblin, Beryl A.; Wheeler, Darrell; Justman, Jessica E.; Hodder, Sally L.; Quinn, Thomas C.; Brookmeyer, Ron

2014-01-01

Multiassay algorithms (MAAs) can be used to estimate cross-sectional HIV incidence. We previously identified a robust MAA that includes the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA), the Bio-Rad Avidity assay, viral load, and CD4 cell count. In this report, we evaluated MAAs that include a high-resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay that does not require sequencing. HRM scores were determined for eight regions of the HIV genome (2 in gag, 1 in pol, and 5 in env). The MAAs that were evaluated included the BED-CEIA, the Bio-Rad Avidity assay, viral load, and the HRM diversity assay, using HRM scores from different regions and a range of region-specific HRM diversity assay cutoffs. The performance characteristics based on the proportion of samples that were classified as MAA positive by duration of infection were determined for each MAA, including the mean window period. The cross-sectional incidence estimates obtained using optimized MAAs were compared to longitudinal incidence estimates for three cohorts in the United States. The performance of the HRM-based MAA was nearly identical to that of the MAA that included CD4 cell count. The HRM-based MAA had a mean window period of 154 days and provided cross-sectional incidence estimates that were similar to those based on cohort follow-up. HIV diversity is a useful biomarker for estimating HIV incidence. MAAs that include the HRM diversity assay can provide accurate HIV incidence estimates using stored blood plasma or serum samples without a requirement for CD4 cell count data. PMID:24153134

Combined state and parameter identification of nonlinear structural dynamical systems based on Rao-Blackwellization and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhinav, S.; Manohar, C. S.

2018-03-01

The problem of combined state and parameter estimation in nonlinear state space models, based on Bayesian filtering methods, is considered. A novel approach, which combines Rao-Blackwellized particle filters for state estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations for parameter identification, is proposed. In order to ensure successful performance of the MCMC samplers, in situations involving large amount of dynamic measurement data and (or) low measurement noise, the study employs a modified measurement model combined with an importance sampling based correction. The parameters of the process noise covariance matrix are also included as quantities to be identified. The study employs the Rao-Blackwellization step at two stages: one, associated with the state estimation problem in the particle filtering step, and, secondly, in the evaluation of the ratio of likelihoods in the MCMC run. The satisfactory performance of the proposed method is illustrated on three dynamical systems: (a) a computational model of a nonlinear beam-moving oscillator system, (b) a laboratory scale beam traversed by a loaded trolley, and (c) an earthquake shake table study on a bending-torsion coupled nonlinear frame subjected to uniaxial support motion.

Medical marijuana laws and adolescent marijuana use in the United States: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

Sarvet, Aaron L.; Wall, Melanie M.; Fink, David S.; Greene, Emily; Le, Aline; Boustead, Anne E.; Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo; Keyes, Katherine M.; Cerdá, Magdalena; Galea, Sandro

2018-01-01

Abstract Aims To conduct a systematic review and meta‐analysis of studies in order to estimate the effect of US medical marijuana laws (MMLs) on past‐month marijuana use prevalence among adolescents. Methods A total of 2999 papers from 17 literature sources were screened systematically. Eleven studies, developed from four ongoing large national surveys, were meta‐analyzed. Estimates of MML effects on any past‐month marijuana use prevalence from included studies were obtained from comparisons of pre–post MML changes in MML states to changes in non‐MML states over comparable time‐periods. These estimates were standardized and entered into a meta‐analysis model with fixed‐effects for each study. Heterogeneity among the study estimates by national data survey was tested with an omnibus F‐test. Estimates of effects on additional marijuana outcomes, of MML provisions (e.g. dispensaries) and among demographic subgroups were abstracted and summarized. Key methodological and modeling characteristics were also described. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. Results None of the 11 studies found significant estimates of pre–post MML changes compared with contemporaneous changes in non‐MML states for marijuana use prevalence among adolescents. The meta‐analysis yielded a non‐significant pooled estimate (standardized mean difference) of −0.003 (95% confidence interval = −0.012, +0.007). Four studies compared MML with non‐MML states on pre‐MML differences and all found higher rates of past‐month marijuana use in MML states pre‐MML passage. Additional tests of specific MML provisions, of MML effects on additional marijuana outcomes and among subgroups generally yielded non‐significant results, although limited heterogeneity may warrant further study. Conclusions Synthesis of the current evidence does not support the hypothesis that US medical marijuana laws (MMLs) until 2014 have led to increases in adolescent marijuana use prevalence. Limited heterogeneity exists among estimates of effects of MMLs on other patterns of marijuana use, of effects within particular population subgroups and of effects of specific MML provisions. PMID:29468763

Annual Forest Inventories for the North Central Region of the United States

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Mark H. Hansen

1999-01-01

The primary objective in developing procedures for annual forest inventories for the north central region of the United States is to establish the capability of producing standard forest inventory and analysis estimates on an annual basis. The inventory system developed to accomplish this objective features several primary functions, including (1) an annual sample of...

Influencing Transfer and Baccalaureate Attainment for Community College Students through State Grant Aid: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bordoloi Pazich, Loni

2014-01-01

This study uses statewide longitudinal data from Texas to estimate the impact of a state grant program intended to encourage low-income community college students to transfer to four-year institutions and complete the baccalaureate. Quasi-experimental methods employed include propensity score matching and regression discontinuity. Results indicate…

Alternative method to validate the seasonal land cover regions of the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Zhiliang Zhu; Donald O. Ohlen; Raymond L. Czaplewski; Robert E. Burgan

1996-01-01

An accuracy assessment method involving double sampling and the multivariate composite estimator has been used to validate the prototype seasonal land cover characteristics database of the conterminous United States. The database consists of 159 land cover classes, classified using time series of 1990 1-km satellite data and augmented with ancillary data including...

FIELD COMPLIANCE TESTS FOR PESTICIDE CONTAINERS: A SUMMARY OF STUDIES PERFORMED UNDER COOPERATIVE AGREEMENT NO. CR813936030 WITH WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA estimated that during 1986 a total of 223 million empty pesticide containers were generated in the United States. Federal statutes regulate the handling and disposal of pesticide wastes, which include empty containers, equipment rinsate and excess or unwanted pestici...

Fiscal Year 2003 Appendix, Budget of the United States of America

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-01-01

the specifica- tions shall include requirements for— (I) a fountain; (II) extensive use of trees and flowering plants from each of the 50 States; (III...Estimates Reports issued ...................................................................................... 12 12 12 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin...disadvantaged farmers and ranchers. The USDA will provide outreach, training, and technical assistance on sound farm management and production, crop

Estimation of livestock appropriation of net primary productivity in Texas Drylands

Treesearch

Robert Washington-Allen; Jody Fitzgerald; Stephanie Grounds; Faisar Jihadi; John Kretzschmar; Kathryn Ramirez; John Mitchell

2009-01-01

The ecological state of US Drylands is unknown. This research is developing procedures to determine the impact of the ecological footprint of grazing livestock on the productive capacity of US Drylands. A pilot geodatabase was developed for the state of Texas that includes 2002 data for county boundaries, net primary productivity (NPP) derived from the Moderate...

Venturesome Capital: State Charter School Finance Systems. National Charter School Finance Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, F. Howard; Muir, Edward; Drown, Rachel

This report examines the laws, regulations, and practices governing charter-school finance during the 1998-99 school year. The 23 states and 2 cities surveyed here had operative charter schools during 1997-98, and thus had a least one year of experience in implementing laws and developing financial practices. The report includes an estimation of…

Faculty and Staff Health Promotion: Results from the School Health Policies and Programs Study 2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eaton, Danice K.; Marx, Eva; Bowie, Sara E.

2007-01-01

Background: US schools employ an estimated 6.7 million workers and are thus an ideal setting for employee wellness programs. This article describes the characteristics of school employee wellness programs in the United States, including state-, district-, and school-level policies and programs. Methods: The Centers for Disease Control and…

Federal Policies, State Responses, and Community College Outcomes: Testing an Augmented Bennett Hypothesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frederick, Allison B.; Schmidt, Stephen J.; Davis, Lewis S.

2012-01-01

We estimate the impact of increases in Federal student aid and higher education funding, such as the recently proposed American Graduation Initiative (AGI), on the outcomes of community colleges, including enrollments, list and average tuitions, and educational quality. We develop a reduced form model of state-level education policy in which state…

Joint coverage probability in a simulation study on Continuous-Time Markov Chain parameter estimation.

PubMed

Benoit, Julia S; Chan, Wenyaw; Doody, Rachelle S

2015-01-01

Parameter dependency within data sets in simulation studies is common, especially in models such as Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC). Additionally, the literature lacks a comprehensive examination of estimation performance for the likelihood-based general multi-state CTMC. Among studies attempting to assess the estimation, none have accounted for dependency among parameter estimates. The purpose of this research is twofold: 1) to develop a multivariate approach for assessing accuracy and precision for simulation studies 2) to add to the literature a comprehensive examination of the estimation of a general 3-state CTMC model. Simulation studies are conducted to analyze longitudinal data with a trinomial outcome using a CTMC with and without covariates. Measures of performance including bias, component-wise coverage probabilities, and joint coverage probabilities are calculated. An application is presented using Alzheimer's disease caregiver stress levels. Comparisons of joint and component-wise parameter estimates yield conflicting inferential results in simulations from models with and without covariates. In conclusion, caution should be taken when conducting simulation studies aiming to assess performance and choice of inference should properly reflect the purpose of the simulation.

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): Its structure, connection to other international initiatives and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagener, T.; Hogue, T.; Schaake, J.; Duan, Q.; Gupta, H.; Andreassian, V.; Hall, A.; Leavesley, G.

2006-01-01

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrological models and in land surface parameterization schemes connected to atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves: database creation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, parameter refinement or calibration, and the demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrological basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include basins from various hydroclimatic regimes throughout the world. MOPEX research has largely been driven by a series of international workshops that have brought interested hydrologists and land surface modellers together to exchange knowledge and experience in developing and applying parameter estimation techniques. With its focus on parameter estimation, MOPEX plays an important role in the international context of other initiatives such as GEWEX, HEPEX, PUB and PILPS. This paper outlines the MOPEX initiative, discusses its role in the scientific community, and briefly states future directions.

Lunar gravitational field estimation and the effects of mismodeling upon lunar satellite orbit prediction. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, John H.

1993-01-01

Lunar spherical harmonic gravity coefficients are estimated from simulated observations of a near-circular low altitude polar orbiter disturbed by lunar mascons. Lunar gravity sensing missions using earth-based nearside observations with and without satellite-based far-side observations are simulated and least squares maximum likelihood estimates are developed for spherical harmonic expansion fit models. Simulations and parameter estimations are performed by a modified version of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory's Planetary Ephemeris Program. Two different lunar spacecraft mission phases are simulated to evaluate the estimated fit models. Results for predicting state covariances one orbit ahead are presented along with the state errors resulting from the mismodeled gravity field. The position errors from planning a lunar landing maneuver with a mismodeled gravity field are also presented. These simulations clearly demonstrate the need to include observations of satellite motion over the far side in estimating the lunar gravity field. The simulations also illustrate that the eighth degree and order expansions used in the simulated fits were unable to adequately model lunar mascons.

Updated Value of Service Reliability Estimates for Electric Utility Customers in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, Michael; Schellenberg, Josh; Blundell, Marshall

2015-01-01

This report updates the 2009 meta-analysis that provides estimates of the value of service reliability for electricity customers in the United States (U.S.). The meta-dataset now includes 34 different datasets from surveys fielded by 10 different utility companies between 1989 and 2012. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods, it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-dataset describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. Once the datasets from the various studies were combined, a two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can bemore » generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the U.S. for industrial, commercial, and residential customers. This report focuses on the backwards stepwise selection process that was used to develop the final revised model for all customer classes. Across customer classes, the revised customer interruption cost model has improved significantly because it incorporates more data and does not include the many extraneous variables that were in the original specification from the 2009 meta-analysis. The backwards stepwise selection process led to a more parsimonious model that only included key variables, while still achieving comparable out-of-sample predictive performance. In turn, users of interruption cost estimation tools such as the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator will have less customer characteristics information to provide and the associated inputs page will be far less cumbersome. The upcoming new version of the ICE Calculator is anticipated to be released in 2015.« less

Prognostics Health Management Model for LED Package Failure Under Contaminated Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Zhang, Hao; Davis, J Lynn

2015-06-06

The reliability consideration of LED products includes both luminous flux drop and color shift. Previous research either talks about luminous maintenance or color shift, because luminous flux degradation usually takes very long time to observe. In this paper, the impact of a VOC (volatile organic compound) contaminated luminous flux and color stability are examined. As a result, both luminous degradation and color shift had been recorded in a short time. Test samples are white, phosphor-converted, high-power LED packages. Absolute radiant flux is measured with integrating sphere system to calculate the luminous flux. Luminous flux degradation and color shift distance weremore » plotted versus aging time to show the degradation pattern. A prognostic health management (PHM) method based on the state variables and state estimator have been proposed in this paper. In this PHM framework, unscented kalman filter (UKF) was deployed as the carrier of all states. During the estimation process, third order dynamic transfer function was used to implement the PHM framework. Both of the luminous flux and color shift distance have been used as the state variable with the same PHM framework to exam the robustness of the method. Predicted remaining useful life is calculated at every measurement point to compare with the tested remaining useful life. The result shows that state estimator can be used as the method for the PHM of LED degradation with respect to both luminous flux and color shift distance. The prediction of remaining useful life of LED package, made by the states estimator and data driven approach, falls in the acceptable error-bounds (20%) after a short training of the estimator.« less

Toward Empirical Estimation of the Total Value of Protecting Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Larry D.; Walsh, Richard G.; Loomis, John B.

1990-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a procedure to estimate a statistical demand function for the protection of rivers in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Other states and nations around the world face a similar problem of estimating how much they can afford to pay for the protection of rivers. The results suggest that in addition to the direct consumption benefits of onsite recreation, total value includes offsite consumption of the flow of information about these activities and resources consumed as preservation benefits. A sample of the general population of the state reports a willingness to pay rather than forego both types of utility. We recommended that offsite values be added to the value of onsite recreation use to determine the total value of rivers to society.

Electrochemical state and internal variables estimation using a reduced-order physics-based model of a lithium-ion cell and an extended Kalman filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stetzel, KD; Aldrich, LL; Trimboli, MS

2015-03-15

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the present value of electrochemical internal variables in a lithium-ion cell in real time, using readily available measurements of cell voltage, current, and temperature. The variables that can be estimated include any desired set of reaction flux and solid and electrolyte potentials and concentrations at any set of one-dimensional spatial locations, in addition to more standard quantities such as state of charge. The method uses an extended Kalman filter along with a one-dimensional physics-based reduced-order model of cell dynamics. Simulations show excellent and robust predictions having dependable error bounds for most internal variables.more » (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

Neutron Fission of 235,237,239U and 241,243Pu: Cross Sections, Integral Cross Sections and Cross Sections on Excited States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W; Britt, H C

In a recent paper submitted to Phys. Rev. C they have presented estimates for (n,f) cross sections on a series of Thorium, Uranium and Plutonium isotopes over the range E{sub n} = 0.1-2.5 MeV. The (n,f) cross sections for many of these isotopes are difficult or impossible to measure in the laboratory. The cross sections were obtained from previous (t,pf) reaction data invoking a model which takes into account the differences between (t,pf) and (n,f) reaction processes, and which includes improved estimates for the neutron compound formation process. The purpose of this note is: (1) to compare the estimated crossmore » sections to current data files in both ENDF and ENDL databases; (2) to estimate ratios of cross sections relatively to {sup 235}U integrated over the ''tamped flattop'' critical assembly spectrum that was used in the earlier {sup 237}U report; and (3) to show the effect on the integral cross sections when the neutron capturing state is an excited rotational state or an isomer. The isomer and excited state results are shown for {sup 235}U and {sup 237}U.« less

Data acquisition and path selection decision making for an autonomous roving vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Shen, C. N.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1976-01-01

Problems related to the guidance of an autonomous rover for unmanned planetary exploration were investigated. Topics included in these studies were: simulation on an interactive graphics computer system of the Rapid Estimation Technique for detection of discrete obstacles; incorporation of a simultaneous Bayesian estimate of states and inputs in the Rapid Estimation Scheme; development of methods for estimating actual laser rangefinder errors and their application to date provided by Jet Propulsion Laboratory; and modification of a path selection system simulation computer code for evaluation of a hazard detection system based on laser rangefinder data.

Compatibility check of measured aircraft responses using kinematic equations and extended Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, V.; Schiess, J. R.

1977-01-01

An extended Kalman filter smoother and a fixed point smoother were used for estimation of the state variables in the six degree of freedom kinematic equations relating measured aircraft responses and for estimation of unknown constant bias and scale factor errors in measured data. The computing algorithm includes an analysis of residuals which can improve the filter performance and provide estimates of measurement noise characteristics for some aircraft output variables. The technique developed was demonstrated using simulated and real flight test data. Improved accuracy of measured data was obtained when the data were corrected for estimated bias errors.

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

Best practices for roundabouts on state highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-07-01

This report presents a series of research findings from an investigation into roundabout operations. This includes a comparison of : several analysis tools for estimating roundabout performance (the Highway Capacity Manual, SIDRA, ARCADY, VISSIM, and...

A Systematic Evaluation of Different Methods for Calculating Adolescent Vaccination Levels Using Immunization Information System Data

PubMed Central

Gowda, Charitha; Dong, Shiming; Potter, Rachel C.; Dombkowski, Kevin J.; Stokley, Shannon

2013-01-01

Objective Immunization information systems (IISs) are valuable surveillance tools; however, population relocation may introduce bias when determining immunization coverage. We explored alternative methods for estimating the vaccine-eligible population when calculating adolescent immunization levels using a statewide IIS. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of the Michigan State Care Improvement Registry (MCIR) for all adolescents aged 11–18 years registered in the MCIR as of October 2010. We explored four methods for determining denominators: (1) including all adolescents with MCIR records, (2) excluding adolescents with out-of-state residence, (3) further excluding those without MCIR activity ≥10 years prior to the evaluation date, and (4) using a denominator based on U.S. Census data. We estimated state- and county-specific coverage levels for four adolescent vaccines. Results We found a 20% difference in estimated vaccination coverage between the most inclusive and restrictive denominator populations. Although there was some variability among the four methods in vaccination at the state level (2%–11%), greater variation occurred at the county level (up to 21%). This variation was substantial enough to potentially impact public health assessments of immunization programs. Generally, vaccines with higher coverage levels had greater absolute variation, as did counties with smaller populations. Conclusion At the county level, using the four denominator calculation methods resulted in substantial differences in estimated adolescent immunization rates that were less apparent when aggregated at the state level. Further research is needed to ascertain the most appropriate method for estimating vaccine coverage levels using IIS data. PMID:24179260

Event triggered state estimation techniques for power systems with integrated variable energy resources.

PubMed

Francy, Reshma C; Farid, Amro M; Youcef-Toumi, Kamal

2015-05-01

For many decades, state estimation (SE) has been a critical technology for energy management systems utilized by power system operators. Over time, it has become a mature technology that provides an accurate representation of system state under fairly stable and well understood system operation. The integration of variable energy resources (VERs) such as wind and solar generation, however, introduces new fast frequency dynamics and uncertainties into the system. Furthermore, such renewable energy is often integrated into the distribution system thus requiring real-time monitoring all the way to the periphery of the power grid topology and not just the (central) transmission system. The conventional solution is two fold: solve the SE problem (1) at a faster rate in accordance with the newly added VER dynamics and (2) for the entire power grid topology including the transmission and distribution systems. Such an approach results in exponentially growing problem sets which need to be solver at faster rates. This work seeks to address these two simultaneous requirements and builds upon two recent SE methods which incorporate event-triggering such that the state estimator is only called in the case of considerable novelty in the evolution of the system state. The first method incorporates only event-triggering while the second adds the concept of tracking. Both SE methods are demonstrated on the standard IEEE 14-bus system and the results are observed for a specific bus for two difference scenarios: (1) a spike in the wind power injection and (2) ramp events with higher variability. Relative to traditional state estimation, the numerical case studies showed that the proposed methods can result in computational time reductions of 90%. These results were supported by a theoretical discussion of the computational complexity of three SE techniques. The work concludes that the proposed SE techniques demonstrate practical improvements to the computational complexity of classical state estimation. In such a way, state estimation can continue to support the necessary control actions to mitigate the imbalances resulting from the uncertainties in renewables. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-03-01

established prices. We also have an estimated equation for an end-use residual category which conceptually includes state grain reserves, other undis...forecasting. An important virtue of the econometric discipline is that it requires one first to conceptualize and estimate regularities of behavior...any de- scriptive analysis. Within the framwork of an econometric model, the analyst is able to discriminate among these "special events

Carbon factors and models for forest carbon estimates for the 2005-2011 National Greenhouse Gas Inventories of the United States

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath; Coeli M. Hoover

2013-01-01

Most nations have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and are mandated to report National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, including the land use, land use change and forestry sector when it is significant. Participating countries commonly use data from national forest inventories as a basis for their forest-related emissions estimates. The...

Development and Testing of a Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-28

wind, temperature, and moisture variables, while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current, temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of...wind, temperature, and moisture variables while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of...uncertainty in the model. Rigorously accurate ensemble methods for describing the distribution of future states given past information include particle

Application of wheat yield model to United States and India. [Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyerherm, A. M. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The wheat yield model was applied to the major wheat-growing areas of the US and India. In the US Great Plains, estimates from the winter and spring wheat models agreed closely with USDA-SRS values in years with the lowest yields, but underestimated in years with the highest yields. Application to the Eastern Plains and Northwest indicated the importance of cultural factors, as well as meteorological ones in the model. It also demonstrated that the model could be used, in conjunction with USDA-SRRS estimates, to estimate yield losses due to factors not included in the model, particularly diseases and freezes. A fixed crop calendar for India was built from a limited amount of available plot data from that country. Application of the yield model gave measurable evidence that yield variation from state to state was due to different mixes of levels of meteorological and cultural factors.

Electric power supply and demand for the contiguous United States, 1981 - 1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1981-07-01

The outlook for electric power supply and demand in the United States decade 1981 to 1990 is reviewed from the perspective of reliability and adequacy of service. Electric power supply adequacy as projected for the nine Regional Reliability Council areas of the contiguous United States is reported as well as interruptible load data reported by the Councils. cogeneration is discussed. Each of the 27 electric regions (sub-areas of the nine Council areas) in the contiguous US are studied. A glossary of terms is given. Appendices describe the Council structure, and include a copy of the ERA-411 Manual, which contains all the items to which the Councils were asked to respond. The utilities with included data, the Staff Report, Estimated Electric Demand and Supply for Summer 1981, Contiguous United States dated May 1981 are included.

Advantages of estimating rate corrections during dynamic propagation of spacecraft rates: Applications to real-time attitude determination of SAMPEX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Challa, M. S.; Natanson, G. A.; Baker, D. F.; Deutschmann, J. K.

1994-01-01

This paper describes real-time attitude determination results for the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX), a gyroless spacecraft, using a Kalman filter/Euler equation approach denoted the real-time sequential filter (RTSF). The RTSF is an extended Kalman filter whose state vector includes the attitude quaternion and corrections to the rates, which are modeled as Markov processes with small time constants. The rate corrections impart a significant robustness to the RTSF against errors in modeling the environmental and control torques, as well as errors in the initial attitude and rates, while maintaining a small state vector. SAMPLEX flight data from various mission phases are used to demonstrate the robustness of the RTSF against a priori attitude and rate errors of up to 90 deg and 0.5 deg/sec, respectively, as well as a sensitivity of 0.0003 deg/sec in estimating rate corrections in torque computations. In contrast, it is shown that the RTSF attitude estimates without the rate corrections can degrade rapidly. RTSF advantages over single-frame attitude determination algorithms are also demonstrated through (1) substantial improvements in attitude solutions during sun-magnetic field coalignment and (2) magnetic-field-only attitude and rate estimation during the spacecraft's sun-acquisition mode. A robust magnetometer-only attitude-and-rate determination method is also developed to provide for the contingency when both sun data as well as a priori knowledge of the spacecraft state are unavailable. This method includes a deterministic algorithm used to initialize the RTSF with coarse estimates of the spacecraft attitude and rates. The combined algorithm has been found effective, yielding accuracies of 1.5 deg in attitude and 0.01 deg/sec in the rates and convergence times as little as 400 sec.

Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.

PubMed

French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S

2018-05-08

The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.

On-line adaptive battery impedance parameter and state estimation considering physical principles in reduced order equivalent circuit battery models part 2. Parameter and state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, Christian; Waag, Wladislaw; Heyn, Hans-Martin; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2014-09-01

Lithium-ion battery systems employed in high power demanding systems such as electric vehicles require a sophisticated monitoring system to ensure safe and reliable operation. Three major states of the battery are of special interest and need to be constantly monitored. These include: battery state of charge (SoC), battery state of health (capacity fade determination, SoH), and state of function (power fade determination, SoF). The second paper concludes the series by presenting a multi-stage online parameter identification technique based on a weighted recursive least quadratic squares parameter estimator to determine the parameters of the proposed battery model from the first paper during operation. A novel mutation based algorithm is developed to determine the nonlinear current dependency of the charge-transfer resistance. The influence of diffusion is determined by an on-line identification technique and verified on several batteries at different operation conditions. This method guarantees a short response time and, together with its fully recursive structure, assures a long-term stable monitoring of the battery parameters. The relative dynamic voltage prediction error of the algorithm is reduced to 2%. The changes of parameters are used to determine the states of the battery. The algorithm is real-time capable and can be implemented on embedded systems.

Estimation of economic values for traits of dairy sheep: I. Model development.

PubMed

Wolfová, M; Wolf, J; Krupová, Z; Kica, J

2009-05-01

A bioeconomic model was developed to estimate effects of change in production and functional traits on profit of dairy or dual-purpose milked sheep under alternative management systems. The flock structure was described in terms of animal categories and probabilities of transitions among them, and a Markov chain approach was used to calculate the stationary state of the resultant ewe flock. The model included both deterministic and stochastic components. Performance for most traits was simulated as the population average, but variation in several traits was taken into account. Management options included lambing intervals, mating system, and culling strategy for ewes, weaning and marketing strategy for progeny, and feeding system. The present value of profit computed as the difference between total revenues and total costs per ewe per year, both discounted to the birth date of the animals, was used as the criterion for economic efficiency of the production system in the stationary state. Economic values (change in system profit per unit change in the trait) of up to 35 milk production, growth, carcass, wool, and functional traits may be estimated.

Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

MedlinePlus

... but it also has a large societal and economic toll. The estimated economic cost of TBI in 2010, including direct and ... P, Miller T and associates. The Incidence and Economic Burden of Injuries in the United States. New ...

A two-stage approach for estimating a statewide truck trip table.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Statewide models, including passenger and freight movements, are frequently used for : supporting numerous statewide planning activities. Many states use them for traffic impact : studies, air quality conformity analysis, freight planning, economic d...

77 FR 40904 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submitted for Office of Management and Budget Review...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-11

... enforcement activities for oil and gas leases in their jurisdiction. The States and Indian Tribes are working... also must provide periodic accounting documentation to ONRR, including an annual work plan and... Tribes. Estimated Annual Reporting and Recordkeeping ``Hour'' Burden: 5,519 hours. We have not included...

Sensitivity of Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) Mission Navigation Accuracy to Major Error Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Corwin; Long, Anne; Car[emter. Russell

2011-01-01

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission consists of four satellites flying in formation in highly elliptical orbits about the Earth, with a primary objective of studying magnetic reconnection. The baseline navigation concept is independent estimation of each spacecraft state using GPS pseudorange measurements referenced to an Ultra Stable Oscillator (USO) with accelerometer measurements included during maneuvers. MMS state estimation is performed onboard each spacecraft using the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS), which is embedded in the Navigator GPS receiver. This paper describes the sensitivity of MMS navigation performance to two major error sources: USO clock errors and thrust acceleration knowledge errors.

Sensitivity of Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) Mission Naviation Accuracy to Major Error Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Corwin; Long, Anne; Carpenter, J. Russell

2011-01-01

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission consists of four satellites flying in formation in highly elliptical orbits about the Earth, with a primary objective of studying magnetic reconnection. The baseline navigation concept is independent estimation of each spacecraft state using GPS pseudorange measurements referenced to an Ultra Stable Oscillator (USO) with accelerometer measurements included during maneuvers. MMS state estimation is performed onboard each spacecraft using the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS), which is embedded in the Navigator GPS receiver. This paper describes the sensitivity of MMS navigation performance to two major error sources: USO clock errors and thrust acceleration knowledge errors.

78 FR 11641 - Information Collection Request Submitted to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-19

... reimbursed 100 percent of their costs, except for record maintenance. Under this ICR, the states will apply... productive and useful reuse of the sites. The respondents on whom a burden is placed include state and tribal... response: On occasion, Once. Total estimated burden: 308,458 hours (per year). Burden is defined at 5 CFR...

Preliminary ride-quality evaluation of the HM.2 Hoverferry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclurken, E. W., Jr.; Jacobson, I. D.; Kuhlthau, A. R.

1974-01-01

The results of a forty-minute exposure of the HM.2 Hoverferry are presented. Quantitative evaluations were made from aft seats on the starboard side for a sea state considered calm and visually estimated at one-half to one foot. Since this type of craft is sensitive to sea state, the conclusions are based on ideal conditions. Some drawings are included.

US Public Opinion on Carrying Firearms in Public Places.

PubMed

Wolfson, Julia A; Teret, Stephen P; Azrael, Deborah; Miller, Matthew

2017-06-01

To estimate US public opinion, overall and by gun ownership status, about the public places where legal gun owners should be allowed to carry firearms. We fielded an online survey among 3949 adults, including an oversample of gun owners and veterans, in April 2015. We used cross-tabulations with survey weights to generate nationally representative estimates. Fewer than 1 in 3 US adults supported gun carrying in any of the specified venues. Support for carrying in public was consistently higher among gun owners than among non-gun owners. Overall, support for carrying in public was lowest for schools (19%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 16.7, 21.1), bars (18%; 95% CI = 15.9, 20.6), and sports stadiums (17%; 95% CI = 15.0, 19.5). Most Americans, including most gun owners, support restricting public places legal gun owners can carry firearms. These views contrast sharply with the current trend in state legislatures of expanding where, how, and by whom guns can be carried in public. Recent state laws and proposed federal legislation that would force states to honor out-of-state concealed carry permits are out of step with American public opinion.

Microphthalmia and anophthalmia in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia.

PubMed

Yomai, A A; Pavlin, B I

2010-04-01

Microphthalmia ('small eye') and anophthalmia ('no eye') are rare congenital defects of eye development. Previous studies utilizing a variety of methodologies have estimated their combined incidence at anywhere from 4 to 30 cases per 100,000 live births. In Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia, there have been 42 cases detected since 1988, yielding an estimated incidence of 140 cases per 100,000. A number of putative genetic and environmental causes have previously been associated with microphthalmia and anophthalmia, including vitamin A deficiency. To date, it is unclear which of these factors may play a role in the alarmingly high rates observed in Chuuk. The Chuuk Division of Public Health has proposed a study to explore these potential causes, which will hopefully shed light on the prevention of these rare but debilitating conditions.

Tornado climatology of the contiguous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramsdell, J.V.; Andrews, G.L.

1986-05-01

The characteristics of tornadoes that were reported in the contiguous United States for the period from January 1, 1954, through December 31, 1983, have been computed from data in the National Severe Storms Forecast Center tornado data base. The characteristics summarized in this report include frequency and locations of tornadoes, and their lengths, widths, and areas. Tornado strike and intensity probabilities have been estimated on a regional basis, and these estimates have been used to compute wind speeds with 10/sup -5/, 10/sup -6/, and 10/sup -7/ yr/sup -1/ probabilities of occurrence. The 10/sup -7/ yr/sup -1/ wind speeds range frommore » below 200 mph in the western United States to about 330 mph in the vicinity of Kansas and Nebraska. The appendices contain extensive tabulations of tornado statistics. Variations of the characteristics within the contiguous United States are presented in the summaries. Separate tabulations are provided for the contiguous United States, for each state, for each 5/sup 0/ and 1/sup 0/ latitude and longitude box, and for the eastern and western United States.« less

Discrete Inverse and State Estimation Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunsch, Carl

2006-06-01

The problems of making inferences about the natural world from noisy observations and imperfect theories occur in almost all scientific disciplines. This book addresses these problems using examples taken from geophysical fluid dynamics. It focuses on discrete formulations, both static and time-varying, known variously as inverse, state estimation or data assimilation problems. Starting with fundamental algebraic and statistical ideas, the book guides the reader through a range of inference tools including the singular value decomposition, Gauss-Markov and minimum variance estimates, Kalman filters and related smoothers, and adjoint (Lagrange multiplier) methods. The final chapters discuss a variety of practical applications to geophysical flow problems. Discrete Inverse and State Estimation Problems is an ideal introduction to the topic for graduate students and researchers in oceanography, meteorology, climate dynamics, and geophysical fluid dynamics. It is also accessible to a wider scientific audience; the only prerequisite is an understanding of linear algebra. Provides a comprehensive introduction to discrete methods of inference from incomplete information Based upon 25 years of practical experience using real data and models Develops sequential and whole-domain analysis methods from simple least-squares Contains many examples and problems, and web-based support through MIT opencourseware

Combining facial dynamics with appearance for age estimation.

PubMed

Dibeklioglu, Hamdi; Alnajar, Fares; Ali Salah, Albert; Gevers, Theo

2015-06-01

Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We propose a method to extract and use dynamic features for age estimation, using a person's smile. Our approach is tested on a large, gender-balanced database with 400 subjects, with an age range between 8 and 76. In addition, we introduce a new database on posed disgust expressions with 324 subjects in the same age range, and evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach when used with another expression. State-of-the-art appearance-based age estimation methods from the literature are implemented as baseline. We demonstrate that for each of these methods, the addition of the proposed dynamic features results in statistically significant improvement. We further propose a novel hierarchical age estimation architecture based on adaptive age grouping. We test our approach extensively, including an exploration of spontaneous versus posed smile dynamics, and gender-specific age estimation. We show that using spontaneity information reduces the mean absolute error by up to 21%, advancing the state of the art for facial age estimation.

Diagnosis, Epidemiology, and Management of Hypertension in Children.

PubMed

Rao, Goutham

2016-08-01

National guidelines for the diagnosis and management of hypertension in children have been available for nearly 40 years. Unfortunately, knowledge and recognition of the problem by clinicians remain poor. Prevalence estimates are highly variable because of differing standards, populations, and blood pressure (BP) measurement techniques. Estimates in the United States range from 0.3% to 4.5%. Risk factors for primary hypertension include overweight and obesity, male sex, older age, high sodium intake, and African American or Latino ancestry. Data relating hypertension in childhood to later cardiovascular events is currently lacking. It is known that BP in childhood is highly predictive of BP in adulthood. Compelling data about target organ damage is available, including the association of hypertension with left ventricular hypertrophy, carotid-intima media thickness, and microalbuminuria. Guidelines from both the United States and Europe include detailed recommendations for diagnosis and management. Diagnostic standards are based on clinic readings, ambulatory BP monitoring is useful in confirming diagnosis of hypertension and identifying white-coat hypertension, masked hypertension, and secondary hypertension, as well as monitoring response to therapy. Research priorities include the need for reliable prevalence estimates based on diverse populations and data about the long-term impact of childhood hypertension on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Priorities to improve clinical practice include more education among clinicians about diagnosis and management, clinical decision support to aid in diagnosis, and routine use of ambulatory BP monitoring to aid in diagnosis and to monitor response to treatment. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Process for estimating likelihood and confidence in post detonation nuclear forensics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darby, John L.; Craft, Charles M.

2014-07-01

Technical nuclear forensics (TNF) must provide answers to questions of concern to the broader community, including an estimate of uncertainty. There is significant uncertainty associated with post-detonation TNF. The uncertainty consists of a great deal of epistemic (state of knowledge) as well as aleatory (random) uncertainty, and many of the variables of interest are linguistic (words) and not numeric. We provide a process by which TNF experts can structure their process for answering questions and provide an estimate of uncertainty. The process uses belief and plausibility, fuzzy sets, and approximate reasoning.

Blind, Deaf, and Dumb: We Must Be Prepared to Fight for Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-25

Blind, Deaf, and Dumb: We Must Be Prepared to Fight for Information A Monograph By LTC Stephen M. Johnson United States Army... information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and...maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information . Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect

Forest volume-to-biomass models and estimates of mass for live and standing dead trees of U.S. forests.

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath; Jennifer C. Jenkins

2003-01-01

Includes methods and equations for nationally consistent estimates of tree-mass density at the stand level (Mg/ha) as predicted by growing-stock volumes reported by the USDA Forest Service for forests of the conterminous United States. Developed for use in FORCARB, a carbon budget model for U.S. forests, the equations also are useful for converting plot-, stand- and...

Characterization of shrubland ecosystem components as continuous fields in the northwest United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Shi, Hua; Meyer, Debbie

2015-01-01

Accurate and consistent estimates of shrubland ecosystem components are crucial to a better understanding of ecosystem conditions in arid and semiarid lands. An innovative approach was developed by integrating multiple sources of information to quantify shrubland components as continuous field products within the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). The approach consists of several procedures including field sample collections, high-resolution mapping of shrubland components using WorldView-2 imagery and regression tree models, Landsat 8 radiometric balancing and phenological mosaicking, medium resolution estimates of shrubland components following different climate zones using Landsat 8 phenological mosaics and regression tree models, and product validation. Fractional covers of nine shrubland components were estimated: annual herbaceous, bare ground, big sagebrush, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, shrub, sagebrush height, and shrub height. Our study area included the footprint of six Landsat 8 scenes in the northwestern United States. Results show that most components have relatively significant correlations with validation data, have small normalized root mean square errors, and correspond well with expected ecological gradients. While some uncertainties remain with height estimates, the model formulated in this study provides a cross-validated, unbiased, and cost effective approach to quantify shrubland components at a regional scale and advances knowledge of horizontal and vertical variability of these components.

An Investigation of the Migration of Africanized Honey Bees into the Southern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Navarro, Hector

1997-01-01

It is estimated that Apis mellifera scutellata, a honey bee subspecies from Africa, now extends over a 20 million square kilometer range that includes much of South America and practically all of Central America, and recently has been introduced to the southern United States. African honeybees were introduced into Brazil in 1956 by a Brazilian geneticist, Mr. Warwick Kerr. At the insistence of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, in 1957, 26 colonies were accidentally released in a eucalyptus forest outside S5o Paulo. The swelling front of the bees was recorded as traveling between 80 and 500 kilometers a year. David Roubik, one of the original killer bee team members estimated that there were one trillion individual Africanized/African honey bees in Latin America. An estimate that is thought to be conservative.

Use of Flowtran Simulation in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, J. Peter; Sommerfeld, Jude T.

1976-01-01

Describes the use in chemical engineering education of FLOWTRAN, a large steady-state simulator of chemical processes with extensive facilities for physical and thermodynamic data-handling and a large library of equipment modules, including cost estimation capability. (MLH)

Modeling and Calculator Tools for State and Local Transportation Resources

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Air quality models, calculators, guidance and strategies are offered for estimating and projecting vehicle air pollution, including ozone or smog-forming pollutants, particulate matter and other emissions that pose public health and air quality concerns.

Statistical Estimation of Rollover Risk

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-08-01

This report describes the results of a statistical analysis to determine the : probability of a rollover in a single vehicle accident. Over 39,000 accidents, : which included 4910 rollovers in the states of Texas, Maryland, and Washington were : exam...

Research notes : raised and recessed pavement markers.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-06-01

In March, we surveyed all region traffic engineers, ODOT districts and several other state department of transportation. The survey data collected included the estimated length of service for different types of markers, the most common mode of failur...

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

An extrapolation scheme for solid-state NMR chemical shift calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakajima, Takahito

2017-06-01

Conventional quantum chemical and solid-state physical approaches include several problems to accurately calculate solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) properties. We propose a reliable computational scheme for solid-state NMR chemical shifts using an extrapolation scheme that retains the advantages of these approaches but reduces their disadvantages. Our scheme can satisfactorily yield solid-state NMR magnetic shielding constants. The estimated values have only a small dependence on the low-level density functional theory calculation with the extrapolation scheme. Thus, our approach is efficient because the rough calculation can be performed in the extrapolation scheme.

National and State Cost Savings Associated With Prohibiting Smoking in Subsidized and Public Housing in the United States

PubMed Central

Peck, Richard M.; Babb, Stephen D.

2014-01-01

Introduction Despite progress in implementing smoke-free laws in indoor public places and workplaces, millions of Americans remain exposed to secondhand smoke at home. The nation’s 80 million multiunit housing residents, including the nearly 7 million who live in subsidized or public housing, are especially susceptible to secondhand smoke infiltration between units. Methods We calculated national and state costs that could have been averted in 2012 if smoking were prohibited in all US subsidized housing, including public housing: 1) secondhand smoke-related direct health care, 2) renovation of smoking-permitted units; and 3) smoking-attributable fires. Annual cost savings were calculated by using residency estimates from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and cost data reported elsewhere. Data were adjusted for inflation and variations in state costs. National and state estimates (excluding Alaska and the District of Columbia) were calculated by cost type. Results Prohibiting smoking in subsidized housing would yield annual cost savings of $496.82 million (range, $258.96–$843.50 million), including $310.48 million ($154.14–$552.34 million) in secondhand smoke-related health care, $133.77 million ($75.24–$209.01 million) in renovation expenses, and $52.57 million ($29.57–$82.15 million) in smoking-attributable fire losses. By state, cost savings ranged from $0.58 million ($0.31–$0.94 million) in Wyoming to $124.68 million ($63.45–$216.71 million) in New York. Prohibiting smoking in public housing alone would yield cost savings of $152.91 million ($79.81–$259.28 million); by state, total cost savings ranged from $0.13 million ($0.07–$0.22 million) in Wyoming to $57.77 million ($29.41–$100.36 million) in New York. Conclusion Prohibiting smoking in all US subsidized housing, including public housing, would protect health and could generate substantial societal cost savings. PMID:25275808

National and state cost savings associated with prohibiting smoking in subsidized and public housing in the United States.

PubMed

King, Brian A; Peck, Richard M; Babb, Stephen D

2014-10-02

Despite progress in implementing smoke-free laws in indoor public places and workplaces, millions of Americans remain exposed to secondhand smoke at home. The nation's 80 million multiunit housing residents, including the nearly 7 million who live in subsidized or public housing, are especially susceptible to secondhand smoke infiltration between units. We calculated national and state costs that could have been averted in 2012 if smoking were prohibited in all US subsidized housing, including public housing: 1) secondhand smoke-related direct health care, 2) renovation of smoking-permitted units; and 3) smoking-attributable fires. Annual cost savings were calculated by using residency estimates from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and cost data reported elsewhere. Data were adjusted for inflation and variations in state costs. National and state estimates (excluding Alaska and the District of Columbia) were calculated by cost type. Prohibiting smoking in subsidized housing would yield annual cost savings of $496.82 million (range, $258.96-$843.50 million), including $310.48 million ($154.14-$552.34 million) in secondhand smoke-related health care, $133.77 million ($75.24-$209.01 million) in renovation expenses, and $52.57 million ($29.57-$82.15 million) in smoking-attributable fire losses. By state, cost savings ranged from $0.58 million ($0.31-$0.94 million) in Wyoming to $124.68 million ($63.45-$216.71 million) in New York. Prohibiting smoking in public housing alone would yield cost savings of $152.91 million ($79.81-$259.28 million); by state, total cost savings ranged from $0.13 million ($0.07-$0.22 million) in Wyoming to $57.77 million ($29.41-$100.36 million) in New York. Prohibiting smoking in all US subsidized housing, including public housing, would protect health and could generate substantial societal cost savings.

Changes in public health workforce composition: proportion of part-time workforce and its correlates, 2008-2013.

PubMed

Leider, Jonathon P; Shah, Gulzar H; Castrucci, Brian C; Leep, Carolyn J; Sellers, Katie; Sprague, James B

2014-11-01

State and local public health department infrastructure in the U.S. was impacted by the 2008 economic recession. The nature and impact of these staffing changes have not been well characterized, especially for the part-time public health workforce. To estimate the number of part-time workers in state and local health departments (LHDs) and examine the correlates of change in the part-time LHD workforce between 2008 and 2013. We used workforce data from the 2008 and 2013 National Association of County and City Health Officials (n=1,543) and Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (n=24) profiles. We employed a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the possible and plausible proportion of the workforce that was part-time, over various assumptions. Next, we employed a multinomial regression assessing correlates of the change in staffing composition among LHDs, including jurisdiction and organizational characteristics, as well measures of community involvement. Nationally representative estimates suggest that the local public health workforce decreased from 191,000 to 168,000 between 2008 and 2013. During that period, the part-time workforce decreased from 25% to 20% of those totals. At the state level, part-time workers accounted for less than 10% of the total workforce among responding states in 2013. Smaller and multi-county jurisdictions employed relatively more part-time workers. This is the first study to create national estimates regarding the size of the part-time public health workforce and estimate those changes over time. A relatively small proportion of the public health workforce is part-time and may be decreasing. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Payments and Utilization of Immunization Services Among Children Enrolled in Fee-for-Service Medicaid.

PubMed

Tsai, Yuping

2018-01-01

To examine the association between state Medicaid vaccine administration fees and children's receipt of immunization services. The study used the 2008-2012 Medicaid Analytic eXtract data and included children aged 0-17 years and continuously enrolled in a Medicaid fee-for-service plan in each study year. Analyses were restricted to 8 states with a Medicaid managed-care penetration rate <75%. Linear regressions were used to estimate the probability of children making ≥1 vaccination visit and the numbers of vaccination visits in the year as a function of state Medicaid vaccine administration fees, age group, sex, race/ethnicity, state unemployment rate, state managed-care penetration rate, and state and year-fixed effects. A total of 1,678,288 children were included. In 2008-2012, the average proportion of children making ≥1 vaccination visit per year was 31% and the mean number of vaccination visits was 0.9. State Medicaid reimbursements for vaccine administration was positively associated with immunization service utilization; for every $1 increase in the payment amount, the probability of children making ≥1 vaccination visit increased by 0.72 percentage point (95% confidence interval, 0.23-1.21; P=0.01), representing a 2% increase from the mean and the number of vaccination visits increased by 0.03 (95% confidence interval, -0.00 to 0.06; P<0.1). The estimated effect was greater among younger children. Higher Medicaid reimbursements for vaccine administration were associated with increased proportion of children receiving immunization services.

Geothermal direct heat use: Market potential/penetration analysis for Federal Region 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, W. (Editor); Tang, K. (Editor)

1980-01-01

A preliminary study was made of the potential for geothermal direct heat use in Arizona, California, Hawaii, and Nevada (Federal Region 9). An analysis was made of each state to: (1) define the resource, based on the latest available data; (2) assess the potential market growth for geothermal energy; and (3) estimate the market penetration, projected to 2020. Findings of the study include the following: (1) Potentially economical hydrothermal resources exist in all four states of the Region: however, the resource data base is largely incomplete, particularly for low to moderate temperature resources. (2) In terms of beneficial heat, the total hydrothermal resource identified so far for the four states is on the order of 43 Quads, including an estimated 34 Quads of high temperature resources which are suitable for direct as well as electrical applications. (3) In California, Hawaii, and Nevada, the industrial market sector has somewhat greater potential for penetration than the residential/commercial sector. In Arizona, however, the situation is reversed, due to the collocation of two major metropolitan areas (Phoenix and Tucson) with potential geothermal resources.

Decoupled and linear quadratic regulator control of a large, flexible space antenna with an observer in the control loop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamer, H. A.; Johnson, K. G.; Young, J. W.

1985-01-01

An analysis is performed to compare decoupled and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) procedures for the control of a large, flexible space antenna. Control objectives involve: (1) commanding changes in the rigid-body modes, (2) nulling initial disturbances in the rigid-body modes, or (3) nulling initial disturbances in the first three flexible modes. Control is achieved with two three-axis control-moment gyros located on the antenna column. Results are presented to illustrate various effects on control requirements for the two procedures. These effects include errors in the initial estimates of state variables, variations in the type, number, and location of sensors, and deletions of state-variable estimates for certain flexible modes after control activation. The advantages of incorporating a time lag in the control feedback are also illustrated. In addition, the effects of inoperative-control situations are analyzed with regard to control requirements and resultant modal responses. Comparisons are included which show the effects of perfect state feedback with no residual modes (ideal case). Time-history responses are presented to illustrate the various effects on the control procedures.

A method and implementation for incorporating heuristic knowledge into a state estimator through the use of a fuzzy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanson, Steven Roy

The objective of the dissertation is to improve state estimation performance, as compared to a Kalman filter, when non-constant, or changing, biases exist in the measurement data. The state estimation performance increase will come from the use of a fuzzy model to determine the position and velocity gains of a state estimator. A method is proposed for incorporating heuristic knowledge into a state estimator through the use of a fuzzy model. This method consists of using a fuzzy model to determine the gains of the state estimator, converting the heuristic knowledge into the fuzzy model, and then optimizing the fuzzy model with a genetic algorithm. This method is applied to the problem of state estimation of a cascaded global positioning system (GPS)/inertial reference unit (IRU) navigation system. The GPS position data contains two major sources for position bias. The first bias is due to satellite errors and the second is due to the time delay or lag from when the GPS position is calculated until it is used in the state estimator. When a change in the bias of the measurement data occurs, a state estimator will converge on the new measurement data solution. This will introduce errors into a Kalman filter's estimated state velocities, which in turn will cause a position overshoot as it converges. By using a fuzzy model to determine the gains of a state estimator, the velocity errors and their associated deficiencies can be reduced.

Estimated Incidence of Antimicrobial Drug-Resistant Nontyphoidal Salmonella Infections, United States, 2004-2012.

PubMed

Medalla, Felicita; Gu, Weidong; Mahon, Barbara E; Judd, Michael; Folster, Jason; Griffin, Patricia M; Hoekstra, Robert M

2016-01-01

Salmonella infections are a major cause of illness in the United States. The antimicrobial agents used to treat severe infections include ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, and ampicillin. Antimicrobial drug resistance has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. To estimate the incidence of resistant culture-confirmed nontyphoidal Salmonella infections, we used Bayesian hierarchical models of 2004-2012 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System and Laboratory-based Enteric Disease Surveillance. We based 3 mutually exclusive resistance categories on susceptibility testing: ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistant, ciprofloxacin nonsusceptible but ceftriaxone susceptible, and ampicillin resistant but ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin susceptible. We estimated the overall incidence of resistant infections as 1.07/100,000 person-years for ampicillin-only resistance, 0.51/100,000 person-years for ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistance, and 0.35/100,000 person-years for ciprofloxacin nonsusceptibility, or ≈6,200 resistant culture-confirmed infections annually. These national estimates help define the magnitude of the resistance problem so that control measures can be appropriately targeted.

Investigating the cost implications of including all respiratory medicines in PCRS schemes.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Jackie; Murphy, Aileen

2018-02-01

This study estimates the additional cost to the State to pay for all respiratory medicines through the Primary Care Reimbursement Service (PCRS) schemes, reducing cost barriers to medication as a complement to existing chronic disease management programmes. Previous literature found higher medication adherence rates amongst medical card patients than those that had to pay or co-pay themselves. A review of medication expenditure on the PCRS schemes from 2005 to 2015. Data on medicines sold into and out of pharmacies was used to estimate the proportion to PCRS schemes or private. Scenario analyses were conducted to estimate what the cost to the State would be to provide funding for all respiratory medicines. Trend analysis findings showed that respiratory medicines have been less than 10% of total PCRS medicine expenditure for the years reviewed. The largest portion of the respiratory medicine expenditure is allocated to 'drugs for obstructive pulmonary disorder' (OPD), ranging from 90% in 2005 to 69% in 2015. Eighty-seven per cent of drugs to treat OPD are dispensed publicly and 13% privately. A scenario analysis estimated that the extra cost to the State to be €20.2 m. Respiratory disease is included in the Irish Government's chronic disease management programme. This aims to deliver optimal care in the most appropriate setting so as to improve health outcomes and quality of life. Medication adherence is imperative to achieving these aims. Reducing cost barriers as a complement to other initiatives may improve medicine adherence thereby improving the effectiveness of disease management and patient outcomes.

A Practical Guide to Conducting a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Health State Utility Values.

PubMed

Petrou, Stavros; Kwon, Joseph; Madan, Jason

2018-05-10

Economic analysts are increasingly likely to rely on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values to inform the parameter inputs of decision-analytic modelling-based economic evaluations. Beyond the context of economic evaluation, evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values can be used to inform broader health policy decisions. This paper provides practical guidance on how to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of health state utility values. The paper outlines a number of stages in conducting a systematic review, including identifying the appropriate evidence, study selection, data extraction and presentation, and quality and relevance assessment. The paper outlines three broad approaches that can be used to synthesise multiple estimates of health utilities for a given health state or condition, namely fixed-effect meta-analysis, random-effects meta-analysis and mixed-effects meta-regression. Each approach is illustrated by a synthesis of utility values for a hypothetical decision problem, and software code is provided. The paper highlights a number of methodological issues pertinent to the conduct of meta-analysis or meta-regression. These include the importance of limiting synthesis to 'comparable' utility estimates, for example those derived using common utility measurement approaches and sources of valuation; the effects of reliance on limited or poorly reported published data from primary utility assessment studies; the use of aggregate outcomes within analyses; approaches to generating measures of uncertainty; handling of median utility values; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of utility estimates collected serially within the context of prospective observational studies or prospective randomised trials; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of intervention effects; and approaches to measuring model validity. Areas of methodological debate and avenues for future research are highlighted.

Annualized earthquake loss estimates for California and their sensitivity to site amplification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Rui; Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, D; Seligson, H; Wills, C.J.

2016-01-01

Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by VS30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 VS30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7  billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates among the three sensitivity cases for smaller geographic units.

Estimation of the protein content of US imports of milk protein concentrates.

PubMed

Bailey, K W

2003-12-01

Recent declines in milk prices in the United States have sparked renewed concern that imports of milk protein concentrates (MPC) are increasingly entering the United States with very low tariff rates and is having an adverse impact on the US dairy industry. Milk protein concentrates are used in the United States in many different products, including the starter culture of cheese, or in nonstandard cheeses such as baker's cheese, ricotta, Feta and Hispanic cheese, processed cheese foods, and nutritional products. One of the difficult aspects of trying to assess the impact of MPC imports on the US dairy industry is to quantify the protein content of these imports. The protein content of MPC imports typically ranges from 40 to 88%. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used to estimate the protein content of MPC on a country by country basis. Such an estimate would not only provide information regarding the quantity of protein entering the United States, but would also provide a profile of low- and high-value MPC importers. This is critical for market analysis, since it is the lower valued MPC imports that more directly displaces US-produced skim milk powder.

Economic costs of nonmedical use of prescription opioids.

PubMed

Hansen, Ryan N; Oster, Gerry; Edelsberg, John; Woody, George E; Sullivan, Sean D

2011-01-01

Although the economic costs of substance misuse have been extensively examined in the published literature, information on the costs of nonmedical use of prescription opioids is much more limited, despite being a significant and rapidly growing problem in the United States. We estimated the current economic burden of nonmedical use of prescription opioids in the United States in terms of direct substance abuse treatment, medical complications, productivity loss, and criminal justice. We distributed our broad cost estimates among the various drugs of misuse, including prescription opioids, down to the individual drug level. In 2006, the estimated total cost in the United States of nonmedical use of prescription opioids was $53.4 billion, of which $42 billion (79%) was attributable to lost productivity, $8.2 billion (15%) to criminal justice costs, $2.2 billion (4%) to drug abuse treatment, and $944 million to medical complications (2%). Five drugs--OxyContin, oxycodone, hydrocodone, propoxyphene, and methadone--accounted for two-thirds of the total economic burden. The economic cost of nonmedical use of prescription opioids in the United States totals more than $50 billion annually; lost productivity and crime account for the vast majority (94%) of these costs.

An Adaptive Orientation Estimation Method for Magnetic and Inertial Sensors in the Presence of Magnetic Disturbances

PubMed Central

Fan, Bingfei; Li, Qingguo; Wang, Chao; Liu, Tao

2017-01-01

Magnetic and inertial sensors have been widely used to estimate the orientation of human segments due to their low cost, compact size and light weight. However, the accuracy of the estimated orientation is easily affected by external factors, especially when the sensor is used in an environment with magnetic disturbances. In this paper, we propose an adaptive method to improve the accuracy of orientation estimations in the presence of magnetic disturbances. The method is based on existing gradient descent algorithms, and it is performed prior to sensor fusion algorithms. The proposed method includes stationary state detection and magnetic disturbance severity determination. The stationary state detection makes this method immune to magnetic disturbances in stationary state, while the magnetic disturbance severity determination helps to determine the credibility of magnetometer data under dynamic conditions, so as to mitigate the negative effect of the magnetic disturbances. The proposed method was validated through experiments performed on a customized three-axis instrumented gimbal with known orientations. The error of the proposed method and the original gradient descent algorithms were calculated and compared. Experimental results demonstrate that in stationary state, the proposed method is completely immune to magnetic disturbances, and in dynamic conditions, the error caused by magnetic disturbance is reduced by 51.2% compared with original MIMU gradient descent algorithm. PMID:28534858

A data assimilating model for estimating Southern Ocean biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdy, A.; Mazloff, M. R.

2017-09-01

A Biogeochemical Southern Ocean State Estimate (B-SOSE) is introduced that includes carbon and oxygen fields as well as nutrient cycles. The state estimate is constrained with observations while maintaining closed budgets and obeying dynamical and thermodynamic balances. Observations from profiling floats, shipboard data, underway measurements, and satellites are used for assimilation. The years 2008-2012 are chosen due to the relative abundance of oxygen observations from Argo floats during this time. The skill of the state estimate at fitting the data is assessed. The agreement is best for fields that are constrained with the most observations, such as surface pCO2 in Drake Passage (44% of the variance captured) and oxygen profiles (over 60% of the variance captured at 200 and 1000 m). The validity of adjoint method optimization for coupled physical-biogeochemical state estimation is demonstrated with a series of gradient check experiments. The method is shown to be mature and ready to synthesize in situ biogeochemical observations as they become more available. Documenting the B-SOSE configuration and diagnosing the strengths and weaknesses of the solution informs usage of this product as both a climate baseline and as a way to test hypotheses. Transport of Intermediate Waters across 32°S supplies significant amounts of nitrate to the Atlantic Ocean (5.57 ± 2.94 Tmol yr-1) and Indian Ocean (5.09 ± 3.06 Tmol yr-1), but much less nitrate reaches the Pacific Ocean (1.78 ± 1.91 Tmol yr-1). Estimates of air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes south of 50°S suggest a mean uptake of 0.18 Pg C/yr for the time period analyzed.

Demonstrating an Approach for Including Pesticide Use in Life Cycle Assessment: Estimating Human and Ecosystem Toxicity of Pesticide Use in Midwest Corn Farming

EPA Science Inventory

Purpose This study demonstrates an approach to assess human health and ecotoxicity impacts of pesticide use by including multiple environmental pathways and various exposure routes using the case of corn grown for bio-based fuel or chemical production in US Midwestern states.Meth...

Demonstrating an approach for including pesticide use in life-cycle assessment: Estimating human and ecosystem toxicity of pesticide use in Midwest corn farming

EPA Science Inventory

PurposeThis study demonstrates an approach to assess human health and ecotoxicity impacts of pesticide use by including multiple environmental pathways and various exposure routes using the case of corn grown for bio-based fuel or chemical production in US Midwestern states.Metho...

United States pulpwood receipts : softwood and hardwood, roundwood and residues, 1950-1989

Treesearch

C. Denise Ingrain; Irene Durbak; Peter Ince

1993-01-01

This report shows pulpwood receipts at pulp mills in the United States for the period 1950-1989. It is a compilation of published and estimated data based on information from various sources, including the American Pulpwood Association, American Paper Institute, U.S. Bureau of the Census, and the USDA Forest Service. Trends are shown in the use of hardwoods compared to...

Projection of Minnesota State Grant Spending for Fiscal Years 2004 and 2005. July 15, 2004.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minnesota Higher Education Services Office, 2004

2004-01-01

This report is one of the quarterly projections on Minnesota State Grant spending required by the Legislature. The July 15th report is important in that it is the one with the most complete data to make rationing estimates and decisions for the fall term. It includes the following: (1) an overview of how the Higher Education Services Office…

Event-Based $H_\\infty $ State Estimation for Time-Varying Stochastic Dynamical Networks With State- and Disturbance-Dependent Noises.

PubMed

Sheng, Li; Wang, Zidong; Zou, Lei; Alsaadi, Fuad E

2017-10-01

In this paper, the event-based finite-horizon H ∞ state estimation problem is investigated for a class of discrete time-varying stochastic dynamical networks with state- and disturbance-dependent noises [also called (x,v) -dependent noises]. An event-triggered scheme is proposed to decrease the frequency of the data transmission between the sensors and the estimator, where the signal is transmitted only when certain conditions are satisfied. The purpose of the problem addressed is to design a time-varying state estimator in order to estimate the network states through available output measurements. By employing the completing-the-square technique and the stochastic analysis approach, sufficient conditions are established to ensure that the error dynamics of the state estimation satisfies a prescribed H ∞ performance constraint over a finite horizon. The desired estimator parameters can be designed via solving coupled backward recursive Riccati difference equations. Finally, a numerical example is exploited to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed state estimation scheme.

Distributed State Estimation Using a Modified Partitioned Moving Horizon Strategy for Power Systems.

PubMed

Chen, Tengpeng; Foo, Yi Shyh Eddy; Ling, K V; Chen, Xuebing

2017-10-11

In this paper, a distributed state estimation method based on moving horizon estimation (MHE) is proposed for the large-scale power system state estimation. The proposed method partitions the power systems into several local areas with non-overlapping states. Unlike the centralized approach where all measurements are sent to a processing center, the proposed method distributes the state estimation task to the local processing centers where local measurements are collected. Inspired by the partitioned moving horizon estimation (PMHE) algorithm, each local area solves a smaller optimization problem to estimate its own local states by using local measurements and estimated results from its neighboring areas. In contrast with PMHE, the error from the process model is ignored in our method. The proposed modified PMHE (mPMHE) approach can also take constraints on states into account during the optimization process such that the influence of the outliers can be further mitigated. Simulation results on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems verify that our method achieves comparable state estimation accuracy but with a significant reduction in the overall computation load.

Evaluation of wind field statistics near and inside clouds using a coherent Doppler lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lottman, Brian Todd

1998-09-01

This work proposes advanced techniques for measuring the spatial wind field statistics near and inside clouds using a vertically pointing solid state coherent Doppler lidar on a fixed ground based platform. The coherent Doppler lidar is an ideal instrument for high spatial and temporal resolution velocity estimates. The basic parameters of lidar are discussed, including a complete statistical description of the Doppler lidar signal. This description is extended to cases with simple functional forms for aerosol backscatter and velocity. An estimate for the mean velocity over a sensing volume is produced by estimating the mean spectra. There are many traditional spectral estimators, which are useful for conditions with slowly varying velocity and backscatter. A new class of estimators (novel) is introduced that produces reliable velocity estimates for conditions with large variations in aerosol backscatter and velocity with range, such as cloud conditions. Performance of traditional and novel estimators is computed for a variety of deterministic atmospheric conditions using computer simulated data. Wind field statistics are produced for actual data for a cloud deck, and for multi- layer clouds. Unique results include detection of possible spectral signatures for rain, estimates for the structure function inside a cloud deck, reliable velocity estimation techniques near and inside thin clouds, and estimates for simple wind field statistics between cloud layers.

Including Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policies in Electricity Demand Projections

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Find more information on how state and local air agencies can identify on-the-books EE/RE policies, develop a methodology for projecting a jurisdiction's energy demand, and estimate the change in power sector emissions.

A Novel Hybrid Approach for Estimating Total Deposition in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur causes many deleterious effects on ecosystems including acidification and excess eutrophication. Assessments to support development of strategies to mitigate these effects require spatially and temporally continuous values of nitrogen...

A Hybrid Approach for Estimating Total Deposition in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur causes many deleterious effects on ecosystems including acidification and excess eutrophication. Assessments to support development of strategies to mitigate these effects require spatially and temporally continuous values of nitrogen...

Epidemiology of Mental Retardation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heber, Rick

Prevalence data on mental retardation is presented including international estimates on general prevalence, age directions, geographical variations within the United States, racial and ethnic variations, economic class distributions, family variations, and population distribution in institutions. Statistics are also provided in areas of specific…

Evaluating cell phone data for AADT estimation : research project capsule.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is a key input in a transportation agencys roadway : planning, design, operation, and maintenance activities, including air quality and : safety assessments. AADT is required to be reported annually by a state...

Framework for the Texas Highway Cost Allocation Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

In fiscal year 1998, Texas spent $2.8 billion on the state-maintained road network, which includes the Interstate highways. This project estimates the contribution to these costs of different vehicle classes. Alternative methods of breaking down ('al...

The economic burden of incident venous thromboembolism in the United States: A review of estimated attributable healthcare costs

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Nelson, Richard E.; Nyarko, Kwame A.; Richardson, Lisa C.; Raskob, Gary E.

2015-01-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is an important cause of preventable mortality and morbidity. In this study, we summarize estimates of per-patient and aggregate medical costs or expenditures attributable to incident VTE in the United States. Per-patient estimates of incremental costs can be calculated as the difference in costs between patients with and without an event after controlling for differences in underlying health status. We identified estimates of the incremental per-patient costs of acute VTEs and VTE-related complications, including recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, and anticoagulation-related adverse drug events. Based on the studies identified, treatment of an acute VTE on average appears to be associated with incremental direct medical costs of $12,000 to $15,000 (2014 US dollars) among first-year survivors, controlling for risk factors. Subsequent complications are conservatively estimated to increase cumulative costs to $18,000–23,000 per incident case. Annual incident VTE events conservatively cost the US healthcare system $7–10 billion each year for 375,000 to 425,000 newly diagnosed, medically treated incident VTE cases. Future studies should track long-term costs for cohorts of people with incident VTE, control for comorbid conditions that have been shown to be associated with VTE, and estimate incremental medical costs for people with VTE who do not survive. The costs associated with treating VTE can be used to assess the potential economic benefit and cost-savings from prevention efforts, although costs will vary among different patient groups. PMID:26654719

The economic burden of incident venous thromboembolism in the United States: A review of estimated attributable healthcare costs.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Nelson, Richard E; Nyarko, Kwame A; Richardson, Lisa C; Raskob, Gary E

2016-01-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is an important cause of preventable mortality and morbidity. In this study, we summarize estimates of per-patient and aggregate medical costs or expenditures attributable to incident VTE in the United States. Per-patient estimates of incremental costs can be calculated as the difference in costs between patients with and without an event after controlling for differences in underlying health status. We identified estimates of the incremental per-patient costs of acute VTEs and VTE-related complications, including recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, and anticoagulation-related adverse drug events. Based on the studies identified, treatment of an acute VTE on average appears to be associated with incremental direct medical costs of $12,000 to $15,000 (2014 US dollars) among first-year survivors, controlling for risk factors. Subsequent complications are conservatively estimated to increase cumulative costs to $18,000-23,000 per incident case. Annual incident VTE events conservatively cost the US healthcare system $7-10 billion each year for 375,000 to 425,000 newly diagnosed, medically treated incident VTE cases. Future studies should track long-term costs for cohorts of people with incident VTE, control for comorbid conditions that have been shown to be associated with VTE, and estimate incremental medical costs for people with VTE who do not survive. The costs associated with treating VTE can be used to assess the potential economic benefit and cost-savings from prevention efforts, although costs will vary among different patient groups. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

State estimation of stochastic non-linear hybrid dynamic system using an interacting multiple model algorithm.

PubMed

Elenchezhiyan, M; Prakash, J

2015-09-01

In this work, state estimation schemes for non-linear hybrid dynamic systems subjected to stochastic state disturbances and random errors in measurements using interacting multiple-model (IMM) algorithms are formulated. In order to compute both discrete modes and continuous state estimates of a hybrid dynamic system either an IMM extended Kalman filter (IMM-EKF) or an IMM based derivative-free Kalman filters is proposed in this study. The efficacy of the proposed IMM based state estimation schemes is demonstrated by conducting Monte-Carlo simulation studies on the two-tank hybrid system and switched non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor system. Extensive simulation studies reveal that the proposed IMM based state estimation schemes are able to generate fairly accurate continuous state estimates and discrete modes. In the presence and absence of sensor bias, the simulation studies reveal that the proposed IMM unscented Kalman filter (IMM-UKF) based simultaneous state and parameter estimation scheme outperforms multiple-model UKF (MM-UKF) based simultaneous state and parameter estimation scheme. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steady-state and transient models of groundwater flow and advective transport, Eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho National Laboratory and vicinity, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Daniel J.; Rousseau, Joseph P.; Rattray, Gordon W.; Fisher, Jason C.

2010-01-01

Three-dimensional steady-state and transient models of groundwater flow and advective transport in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy. The steady-state and transient flow models cover an area of 1,940 square miles that includes most of the 890 square miles of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A 50-year history of waste disposal at the INL has resulted in measurable concentrations of waste contaminants in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. Model results can be used in numerical simulations to evaluate the movement of contaminants in the aquifer. Saturated flow in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was simulated using the MODFLOW-2000 groundwater flow model. Steady-state flow was simulated to represent conditions in 1980 with average streamflow infiltration from 1966-80 for the Big Lost River, the major variable inflow to the system. The transient flow model simulates groundwater flow between 1980 and 1995, a period that included a 5-year wet cycle (1982-86) followed by an 8-year dry cycle (1987-94). Specified flows into or out of the active model grid define the conditions on all boundaries except the southwest (outflow) boundary, which is simulated with head-dependent flow. In the transient flow model, streamflow infiltration was the major stress, and was variable in time and location. The models were calibrated by adjusting aquifer hydraulic properties to match simulated and observed heads or head differences using the parameter-estimation program incorporated in MODFLOW-2000. Various summary, regression, and inferential statistics, in addition to comparisons of model properties and simulated head to measured properties and head, were used to evaluate the model calibration. Model parameters estimated for the steady-state calibration included hydraulic conductivity for seven of nine hydrogeologic zones and a global value of vertical anisotropy. Parameters estimated for the transient calibration included specific yield for five of the seven hydrogeologic zones. The zones represent five rock units and parts of four rock units with abundant interbedded sediment. All estimates of hydraulic conductivity were nearly within 2 orders of magnitude of the maximum expected value in a range that exceeds 6 orders of magnitude. The estimate of vertical anisotropy was larger than the maximum expected value. All estimates of specific yield and their confidence intervals were within the ranges of values expected for aquifers, the range of values for porosity of basalt, and other estimates of specific yield for basalt. The steady-state model reasonably simulated the observed water-table altitude, orientation, and gradients. Simulation of transient flow conditions accurately reproduced observed changes in the flow system resulting from episodic infiltration from the Big Lost River and facilitated understanding and visualization of the relative importance of historical differences in infiltration in time and space. As described in a conceptual model, the numerical model simulations demonstrate flow that is (1) dominantly horizontal through interflow zones in basalt and vertical anisotropy resulting from contrasts in hydraulic conductivity of various types of basalt and the interbedded sediments, (2) temporally variable due to streamflow infiltration from the Big Lost River, and (3) moving downward downgradient of the INL. The numerical models were reparameterized, recalibrated, and analyzed to evaluate alternative conceptualizations or implementations of the conceptual model. The analysis of the reparameterized models revealed that little improvement in the model could come from alternative descriptions of sediment content, simulated aquifer thickness, streamflow infiltration, and vertical head distribution on the downgradient boundary. Of the alternative estimates of flow to or from the aquifer, only a 20 percent decrease in

Accuracy assessment: The statistical approach to performance evaluation in LACIE. [Great Plains corridor, United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, A. G.; Feiveson, A. H.; Chhikara, R. S.; Hsu, E. M. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

A statistical methodology was developed to check the accuracy of the products of the experimental operations throughout crop growth and to determine whether the procedures are adequate to accomplish the desired accuracy and reliability goals. It has allowed the identification and isolation of key problems in wheat area yield estimation, some of which have been corrected and some of which remain to be resolved. The major unresolved problem in accuracy assessment is that of precisely estimating the bias of the LACIE production estimator. Topics covered include: (1) evaluation techniques; (2) variance and bias estimation for the wheat production estimate; (3) the 90/90 evaluation; (4) comparison of the LACIE estimate with reference standards; and (5) first and second order error source investigations.

1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources: Results, Methodology, and Supporting Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gautier, Donald L.; Dolton, Gordon L.; Takahashi, Kenneth I.; Varnes, Katharine L.

1996-01-01

This revised CD-ROM summarizes the results, released in 1995, of the 3-year study of the oil and gas resources of the onshore and state waters of the United States. Minor errors in the original DDS-30 (listed in DDS-35 and DDS-36) are corrected in this revised version and in the data files now released in DDS-35 and DDS-36. Estimates are made of technically recoverable oil, including measured (proved) reserves, future additions to reserves in existing fields, and undiscovered resources. Estimates are also made of the technically recoverable conventional resources of natural gas in measured reserves, in anticipated growth of reserves in existing fields, and in undiscovered resources. Additionally, an assessment is made of recoverable resources in continuous-type (largely unconventional) accumulations in sandstones, shales, chalks, and coal beds.

Search-based optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Ward C.

2003-01-01

The problem of determining the minimum cost hypothetical ancestral sequences for a given cladogram is known to be NP-complete (Wang and Jiang, 1994). Traditionally, point estimations of hypothetical ancestral sequences have been used to gain heuristic, upper bounds on cladogram cost. These include procedures with such diverse approaches as non-additive optimization of multiple sequence alignment, direct optimization (Wheeler, 1996), and fixed-state character optimization (Wheeler, 1999). A method is proposed here which, by extending fixed-state character optimization, replaces the estimation process with a search. This form of optimization examines a diversity of potential state solutions for cost-efficient hypothetical ancestral sequences and can result in greatly more parsimonious cladograms. Additionally, such an approach can be applied to other NP-complete phylogenetic optimization problems such as genomic break-point analysis. c2003 The Willi Hennig Society. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Historic Properties Report: Volunteer Army Ammunition Plant, Chattanooga, Tennessee.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-08-01

on file at AMCCOM Historcal Office. 3. Building use was determined by government category code; some support structures, such as change houses in the...preservation program to be carried out for the property. It should include a maintenance and repair schedule and estimated initial and annual costs . The...and estimated initial and annual costs . The preservation plan should be approved by the State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council in

Neglected Infections of Poverty in the United States of America

PubMed Central

Hotez, Peter J.

2008-01-01

In the United States, there is a largely hidden burden of diseases caused by a group of chronic and debilitating parasitic, bacterial, and congenital infections known as the neglected infections of poverty. Like their neglected tropical disease counterparts in developing countries, the neglected infections of poverty in the US disproportionately affect impoverished and under-represented minority populations. The major neglected infections include the helminth infections, toxocariasis, strongyloidiasis, ascariasis, and cysticercosis; the intestinal protozoan infection trichomoniasis; some zoonotic bacterial infections, including leptospirosis; the vector-borne infections Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, trench fever, and dengue fever; and the congenital infections cytomegalovirus (CMV), toxoplasmosis, and syphilis. These diseases occur predominantly in people of color living in the Mississippi Delta and elsewhere in the American South, in disadvantaged urban areas, and in the US–Mexico borderlands, as well as in certain immigrant populations and disadvantaged white populations living in Appalachia. Preliminary disease burden estimates of the neglected infections of poverty indicate that tens of thousands, or in some cases, hundreds of thousands of poor Americans harbor these chronic infections, which represent some of the greatest health disparities in the United States. Specific policy recommendations include active surveillance (including newborn screening) to ascertain accurate population-based estimates of disease burden; epidemiological studies to determine the extent of autochthonous transmission of Chagas disease and other infections; mass or targeted treatments; vector control; and research and development for new control tools including improved diagnostics and accelerated development of a vaccine to prevent congenital CMV infection and congenital toxoplasmosis. PMID:18575621

Trajectory prediction for ballistic missiles based on boost-phase LOS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeddanapudi, Murali; Bar-Shalom, Yaakov

1997-10-01

This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the trajectory of a tactical ballistic missile using line of sight (LOS) measurements from one or more passive sensors (typically satellites). The major difficulties of this problem include: the estimation of the unknown time of launch, incorporation of (inaccurate) target thrust profiles to model the target dynamics during the boost phase and an overall ill-conditioning of the estimation problem due to poor observability of the target motion via the LOS measurements. We present a robust estimation procedure based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that provides both the target state estimate and error covariance taking into consideration the complications mentioned above. An important consideration in the defense against tactical ballistic missiles is the determination of the target position and error covariance at the acquisition range of a surveillance radar in the vicinity of the impact point. We present a systematic procedure to propagate the target state and covariance to a nominal time, when it is within the detection range of a surveillance radar to obtain a cueing volume. Mont Carlo simulation studies on typical single and two sensor scenarios indicate that the proposed algorithms are accurate in terms of the estimates and the estimator calculated covariances are consistent with the errors.

Estimating species-specific suvival and movement when species identification is uncertain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, J.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2007-01-01

Incorporating uncertainty in the investigation of ecological studies has been the topic of an increasing body of research. In particular, mark?recapture methodology has shown that incorporating uncertainty in the probability of detecting individuals in populations enables accurate estimation of population-level processes such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal. Recent advances in mark?recapture methodology have included estimating population-level processes for biologically important groups despite the misassignment of individuals to those groups. Examples include estimating rates of apparent survival despite less than perfect accuracy when identifying individuals to gender or breeding state. Here we introduce a method for estimating apparent survival and dispersal in species that co-occur but that are difficult to distinguish. We use data from co-occurring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and montane voles (M. montanus) in addition to simulated data to show that ignoring species uncertainty can lead to biased estimates of population processes. The incorporation of species uncertainty in mark?recapture studies should aid future research investigating ecological concepts such as interspecific competition, niche differentiation, and spatial population dynamics in sibling species.

Lead recycling in the United States in 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Gerald R.

2001-01-01

This materials flow study includes a description of lead supply and demand factors for the United States to illustrate the extent of lead recycling and to identify recycling trends. Understanding the system of materials flow from source to ultimate disposition can assist in improving the management of the use of natural resources in a manner that is compatible with sound environmental practices. The quantity of lead recycled in 1998, as a percentage of apparent lead supply, was estimated to be about 63%, and recycling efficiency, to be 95%. Of the total lead consumed in products for the U.S. market in 1998, an estimated 10% was consumed in products in which the lead was not readily recyclable.

Quantum State Tomography via Linear Regression Estimation

PubMed Central

Qi, Bo; Hou, Zhibo; Li, Li; Dong, Daoyi; Xiang, Guoyong; Guo, Guangcan

2013-01-01

A simple yet efficient state reconstruction algorithm of linear regression estimation (LRE) is presented for quantum state tomography. In this method, quantum state reconstruction is converted into a parameter estimation problem of a linear regression model and the least-squares method is employed to estimate the unknown parameters. An asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) upper bound for all possible states to be estimated is given analytically, which depends explicitly upon the involved measurement bases. This analytical MSE upper bound can guide one to choose optimal measurement sets. The computational complexity of LRE is O(d4) where d is the dimension of the quantum state. Numerical examples show that LRE is much faster than maximum-likelihood estimation for quantum state tomography. PMID:24336519

Estimating snow water equivalent from GPS vertical site-position observations in the western United States

PubMed Central

Ouellette, Karli J; de Linage, Caroline; Famiglietti, James S

2013-01-01

[1] Accurate estimation of the characteristics of the winter snowpack is crucial for prediction of available water supply, flooding, and climate feedbacks. Remote sensing of snow has been most successful for quantifying the spatial extent of the snowpack, although satellite estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE), fractional snow covered area, and snow depth is improving. Here we show that GPS observations of vertical land surface loading reveal seasonal responses of the land surface to the total weight of snow, providing information about the stored SWE. We demonstrate that the seasonal signal in Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center (SOPAC) GPS vertical land surface position time series at six locations in the western United States is driven by elastic loading of the crust by the snowpack. GPS observations of land surface deformation are then used to predict the water load as a function of time at each location of interest and compared for validation to nearby Snowpack Telemetry observations of SWE. Estimates of soil moisture are included in the analysis and result in considerable improvement in the prediction of SWE. Citation: Ouellette, K. J., C. de Linage, and J. S. Famiglietti (2013), Estimating snow water equivalent from GPS vertical site-position observations in the western United States, Water Resour. Res., 49, 2508–2518, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20173. PMID:24223442

Parameter estimation for stiff deterministic dynamical systems via ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Andrea; Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki

2014-10-01

A commonly encountered problem in numerous areas of applications is to estimate the unknown coefficients of a dynamical system from direct or indirect observations at discrete times of some of the components of the state vector. A related problem is to estimate unobserved components of the state. An egregious example of such a problem is provided by metabolic models, in which the numerous model parameters and the concentrations of the metabolites in tissue are to be estimated from concentration data in the blood. A popular method for addressing similar questions in stochastic and turbulent dynamics is the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a particle-based filtering method that generalizes classical Kalman filtering. In this work, we adapt the EnKF algorithm for deterministic systems in which the numerical approximation error is interpreted as a stochastic drift with variance based on classical error estimates of numerical integrators. This approach, which is particularly suitable for stiff systems where the stiffness may depend on the parameters, allows us to effectively exploit the parallel nature of particle methods. Moreover, we demonstrate how spatial prior information about the state vector, which helps the stability of the computed solution, can be incorporated into the filter. The viability of the approach is shown by computed examples, including a metabolic system modeling an ischemic episode in skeletal muscle, with a high number of unknown parameters.

US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves 1996 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-12-01

The EIA annual reserves report series is the only source of comprehensive domestic proved reserves estimates. This publication is used by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, industry, and other interested parties to obtain accurate estimates of the Nation`s proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These data are essential to the development, implementation, and evaluation of energy policy and legislation. This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1996, as well as production volumes for the US and selected States and State subdivisionsmore » for the year 1996. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), nonassociated gas and associated-dissolved gas (which are the two major types of wet natural gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, reserve estimates for two types of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, are presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1996 is provided. 21 figs., 16 tabs.« less

Utility of Capture-Recapture Methodology to Estimate Prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects Among Adolescents in 11 New York State Counties: 2008 to 2010.

PubMed

Akkaya-Hocagil, Tugba; Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Sommerhalter, Kristin; McGarry, Claire; Van Zutphen, Alissa

2017-11-01

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defects in the United States, and the population of individuals living with CHDs is growing. Though CHD prevalence in infancy has been well characterized, better prevalence estimates among children and adolescents in the United States are still needed. We used capture-recapture methods to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents residing in 11 New York counties. The three data sources used for analysis included Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) hospital inpatient records, SPARCS outpatient records, and medical records provided by seven pediatric congenital cardiac clinics from 2008 to 2010. Bayesian log-linear models were fit using the R package Conting to account for dataset dependencies and heterogeneous catchability. A total of 2537 adolescent CHD cases were captured in our three data sources. Forty-four cases were identified in all data sources, 283 cases were identified in two of three data sources, and 2210 cases were identified in a single data source. The final model yielded an estimated total adolescent CHD population of 3845, indicating that 66% of the cases in the catchment area were identified in the case-identifying data sources. Based on 2010 Census estimates, we estimated adolescent CHD prevalence as 6.4 CHD cases per 1000 adolescents (95% confidence interval: 6.2-6.6). We used capture-recapture methodology with a population-based surveillance system in New York to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents. Future research incorporating additional data sources may improve prevalence estimates in this population. Birth Defects Research 109:1423-1429, 2017.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating the Uncertain Mathematical Structure of Hydrological Model via Bayesian Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, N.; Gupta, H.; O'Donell, G.; Wheater, H.

2008-12-01

The structure of hydrological model at macro scale (e.g. watershed) is inherently uncertain due to many factors, including the lack of a robust hydrological theory at the macro scale. In this work, we assume that a suitable conceptual model for the hydrologic system has already been determined - i.e., the system boundaries have been specified, the important state variables and input and output fluxes to be included have been selected, and the major hydrological processes and geometries of their interconnections have been identified. The structural identification problem then is to specify the mathematical form of the relationships between the inputs, state variables and outputs, so that a computational model can be constructed for making simulations and/or predictions of system input-state-output behaviour. We show how Bayesian data assimilation can be used to merge both prior beliefs in the form of pre-assumed model equations with information derived from the data to construct a posterior model. The approach, entitled Bayesian Estimation of Structure (BESt), is used to estimate a hydrological model for a small basin in England, at hourly time scales, conditioned on the assumption of 3-dimensional state - soil moisture storage, fast and slow flow stores - conceptual model structure. Inputs to the system are precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and outputs are actual evapotranspiration and streamflow discharge. Results show the difference between prior and posterior mathematical structures, as well as provide prediction confidence intervals that reflect three types of uncertainty: due to initial conditions, due to input and due to mathematical structure.

Automatic detection of retina disease: robustness to image quality and localization of anatomy structure.

PubMed

Karnowski, T P; Aykac, D; Giancardo, L; Li, Y; Nichols, T; Tobin, K W; Chaum, E

2011-01-01

The automated detection of diabetic retinopathy and other eye diseases in images of the retina has great promise as a low-cost method for broad-based screening. Many systems in the literature which perform automated detection include a quality estimation step and physiological feature detection, including the vascular tree and the optic nerve / macula location. In this work, we study the robustness of an automated disease detection method with respect to the accuracy of the optic nerve location and the quality of the images obtained as judged by a quality estimation algorithm. The detection algorithm features microaneurysm and exudate detection followed by feature extraction on the detected population to describe the overall retina image. Labeled images of retinas ground-truthed to disease states are used to train a supervised learning algorithm to identify the disease state of the retina image and exam set. Under the restrictions of high confidence optic nerve detections and good quality imagery, the system achieves a sensitivity and specificity of 94.8% and 78.7% with area-under-curve of 95.3%. Analysis of the effect of constraining quality and the distinction between mild non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy, normal retina images, and more severe disease states is included.

Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related disease mortality in New York State from 1969 to 2006.

PubMed

Delcher, Chris; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M; Wagenaar, Alexander C

2012-07-01

The relationship of increased alcohol taxes to reductions in alcohol-related harm is well established. Few studies, however, have examined the effects of sudden decreases in alcohol tax rates or effects of narrow tax changes limited to specific beverage types. In the current study, we: (1) examine whether tax increases on spirits have similar effects in reducing alcohol-related disease mortality as increasing taxes on all types of alcoholic beverages simultaneously, and (2) evaluate effects of beer-specific tax decreases in New York State on mortality. We used a time-series, quasi-experimental research design, including non-alcohol deaths within New York State and other states' rates of alcohol-related disease mortality for comparison. The dataset included 456 monthly observations of mortality in New York State over a 38-year period (1969-2006). We used a random-effects approach and included several other important covariates. Alcohol-related disease mortality declined by 7.0% after a 1990 tax increase for spirits and beer. A spirits-only tax increase (in 1972) was not significantly associated with mortality but a data anomaly increased error in this effect estimate. Small tax decreases on beer between 1996 and 2006 had no measurable effect on mortality. Doubling the beer tax from $0.11 to $0.22 per gallon, a return to New York State's 1990 levels, would decrease deaths by an estimated 250 deaths per year. Excise tax increases on beer and spirits were associated with reductions in alcohol-related disease mortality. Modifying tax rates on a single beverage type does not appear to be as effective as doing so on multiple alcoholic beverages simultaneously. In New York, small decreases in beer taxes were not significantly associated with alcohol-related disease mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flooding in the Northeastern United States, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suro, Thomas P.; Roland, Mark A.; Kiah, Richard G.

2015-12-31

The annual exceedance probability (AEP) for 327 streamgages in the Northeastern United States were computed using annual peak streamflow data through 2011 and are included in this report. The 2011 peak streamflow for 129 of those streamgages was estimated to have an AEP of less than or equal to 1 percent. Almost 100 of these peak streamflows were a result of the flooding associated with Hurricane Irene in late August 2011. More extreme than the 1-percent AEP, is the 0.2-percent AEP. The USGS recorded peak streamflows at 31 streamgages that equaled or exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent AEP during 2011. Collectively, the USGS recorded peak streamflows having estimated AEPs of less than 1 percent in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont and new period-of-record peak streamflows were recorded at more than 180 streamgages resulting from the floods of 2011.

Comparison of Kalman filter and optimal smoother estimates of spacecraft attitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, J.

1994-01-01

Given a valid system model and adequate observability, a Kalman filter will converge toward the true system state with error statistics given by the estimated error covariance matrix. The errors generally do not continue to decrease. Rather, a balance is reached between the gain of information from new measurements and the loss of information during propagation. The errors can be further reduced, however, by a second pass through the data with an optimal smoother. This algorithm obtains the optimally weighted average of forward and backward propagating Kalman filters. It roughly halves the error covariance by including future as well as past measurements in each estimate. This paper investigates whether such benefits actually accrue in the application of an optimal smoother to spacecraft attitude determination. Tests are performed both with actual spacecraft data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and with simulated data for which the true state vector and noise statistics are exactly known.

A review on prognostics and health monitoring of Li-ion battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jingliang; Lee, Jay

2011-08-01

The functionality and reliability of Li-ion batteries as major energy storage devices have received more and more attention from a wide spectrum of stakeholders, including federal/state policymakers, business leaders, technical researchers, environmental groups and the general public. Failures of Li-ion battery not only result in serious inconvenience and enormous replacement/repair costs, but also risk catastrophic consequences such as explosion due to overheating and short circuiting. In order to prevent severe failures from occurring, and to optimize Li-ion battery maintenance schedules, breakthroughs in prognostics and health monitoring of Li-ion batteries, with an emphasis on fault detection, correction and remaining-useful-life prediction, must be achieved. This paper reviews various aspects of recent research and developments in Li-ion battery prognostics and health monitoring, and summarizes the techniques, algorithms and models used for state-of-charge (SOC) estimation, current/voltage estimation, capacity estimation and remaining-useful-life (RUL) prediction.

Sensor fault diagnosis of singular delayed LPV systems with inexact parameters: an uncertain system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanabadi, Amir Hossein; Shafiee, Masoud; Puig, Vicenc

2018-01-01

In this paper, sensor fault diagnosis of a singular delayed linear parameter varying (LPV) system is considered. In the considered system, the model matrices are dependent on some parameters which are real-time measurable. The case of inexact parameter measurements is considered which is close to real situations. Fault diagnosis in this system is achieved via fault estimation. For this purpose, an augmented system is created by including sensor faults as additional system states. Then, an unknown input observer (UIO) is designed which estimates both the system states and the faults in the presence of measurement noise, disturbances and uncertainty induced by inexact measured parameters. Error dynamics and the original system constitute an uncertain system due to inconsistencies between real and measured values of the parameters. Then, the robust estimation of the system states and the faults are achieved with H∞ performance and formulated with a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The designed UIO is also applicable for fault diagnosis of singular delayed LPV systems with unmeasurable scheduling variables. The efficiency of the proposed approach is illustrated with an example.

A translational platform for prototyping closed-loop neuromodulation systems

PubMed Central

Afshar, Pedram; Khambhati, Ankit; Stanslaski, Scott; Carlson, David; Jensen, Randy; Linde, Dave; Dani, Siddharth; Lazarewicz, Maciej; Cong, Peng; Giftakis, Jon; Stypulkowski, Paul; Denison, Tim

2013-01-01

While modulating neural activity through stimulation is an effective treatment for neurological diseases such as Parkinson's disease and essential tremor, an opportunity for improving neuromodulation therapy remains in automatically adjusting therapy to continuously optimize patient outcomes. Practical issues associated with achieving this include the paucity of human data related to disease states, poorly validated estimators of patient state, and unknown dynamic mappings of optimal stimulation parameters based on estimated states. To overcome these challenges, we present an investigational platform including: an implanted sensing and stimulation device to collect data and run automated closed-loop algorithms; an external tool to prototype classifier and control-policy algorithms; and real-time telemetry to update the implanted device firmware and monitor its state. The prototyping system was demonstrated in a chronic large animal model studying hippocampal dynamics. We used the platform to find biomarkers of the observed states and transfer functions of different stimulation amplitudes. Data showed that moderate levels of stimulation suppress hippocampal beta activity, while high levels of stimulation produce seizure-like after-discharge activity. The biomarker and transfer function observations were mapped into classifier and control-policy algorithms, which were downloaded to the implanted device to continuously titrate stimulation amplitude for the desired network effect. The platform is designed to be a flexible prototyping tool and could be used to develop improved mechanistic models and automated closed-loop systems for a variety of neurological disorders. PMID:23346048

A translational platform for prototyping closed-loop neuromodulation systems.

PubMed

Afshar, Pedram; Khambhati, Ankit; Stanslaski, Scott; Carlson, David; Jensen, Randy; Linde, Dave; Dani, Siddharth; Lazarewicz, Maciej; Cong, Peng; Giftakis, Jon; Stypulkowski, Paul; Denison, Tim

2012-01-01

While modulating neural activity through stimulation is an effective treatment for neurological diseases such as Parkinson's disease and essential tremor, an opportunity for improving neuromodulation therapy remains in automatically adjusting therapy to continuously optimize patient outcomes. Practical issues associated with achieving this include the paucity of human data related to disease states, poorly validated estimators of patient state, and unknown dynamic mappings of optimal stimulation parameters based on estimated states. To overcome these challenges, we present an investigational platform including: an implanted sensing and stimulation device to collect data and run automated closed-loop algorithms; an external tool to prototype classifier and control-policy algorithms; and real-time telemetry to update the implanted device firmware and monitor its state. The prototyping system was demonstrated in a chronic large animal model studying hippocampal dynamics. We used the platform to find biomarkers of the observed states and transfer functions of different stimulation amplitudes. Data showed that moderate levels of stimulation suppress hippocampal beta activity, while high levels of stimulation produce seizure-like after-discharge activity. The biomarker and transfer function observations were mapped into classifier and control-policy algorithms, which were downloaded to the implanted device to continuously titrate stimulation amplitude for the desired network effect. The platform is designed to be a flexible prototyping tool and could be used to develop improved mechanistic models and automated closed-loop systems for a variety of neurological disorders.

A Framework for the Texas Highway Cost Allocation Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

Original Report Date: January 2000/Revised: June 2000. In fiscal year 1998, Texas spent $2.8 billion on the state-maintained road network, which includes the Interstate highways. This project estimates the contribution to these costs of different veh...

Development of estimation methodology for bicycle and pedestrian volumes based on existing counts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) adopted the Bicycle and Pedestrian Policy directive in 2009 : stating that "...the needs of bicyclists and pedestrians shall be included in the planning, design, and operation of : transportation facil...

23 CFR 973.204 - Management systems requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the nationwide management systems, implementation schedule, data sources, including the need to accommodate State and local data, and cost estimate. (c) Indian tribes may develop, establish, and implement tribal management systems under a self-determination contract or self-governance annual funding agreement...

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

The estimation error covariance matrix for the ideal state reconstructor with measurement noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polites, Michael E.

1988-01-01

A general expression is derived for the state estimation error covariance matrix for the Ideal State Reconstructor when the input measurements are corrupted by measurement noise. An example is presented which shows that the more measurements used in estimating the state at a given time, the better the estimator.

2008 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures.

PubMed

2008-03-01

Alzheimer's disease is the seventh leading cause of all deaths in the United States and the fifth leading cause of death in Americans older than the age of 65 years. More than 5 million Americans are estimated to have Alzheimer's disease. Every 71 seconds someone in America develops Alzheimer's disease; by 2050 it is expected to occur every 33 seconds. During the coming decades, baby boomers are projected to add 10 million people to these numbers. By 2050, the incidence of Alzheimer's disease is expected to approach nearly a million people per year, with a total estimated prevalence of 11 to 16 million persons. Significant cost implications related to Alzheimer's disease and other dementias include an estimated $148 billion annually in direct (Medicare/Medicaid) and indirect (eg, caregiver lost wages and out-of-pocket expenses, decreased business productivity) costs. Not included in these figures are the estimated 10 million caregivers who annually provide $89 billion in unpaid services to individuals with Alzheimer's disease. This report provides information to increase understanding of the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease, including incidence and prevalence, mortality, lifetime risks, costs, and impact on family caregivers.

Method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system such as a flight vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Robert H. (Inventor); Ribbens, William B. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

A method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system having sensors for measuring state variables and providing corresponding output signals in response to one or more system input signals are provided. The method includes calculating estimated gains of a filter and selecting an appropriate linear model for processing the output signals based on the input signals. The step of calculating utilizes one or more models of the dynamic system to obtain estimated signals. The method further includes calculating output error residuals based on the output signals and the estimated signals. The method also includes detecting one or more hypothesized failures or performance degradations of a component or subsystem of the dynamic system based on the error residuals. The step of calculating the estimated values is performed optimally with respect to one or more of: noise, uncertainty of parameters of the models and un-modeled dynamics of the dynamic system which may be a flight vehicle or financial market or modeled financial system.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

PubMed

Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N

2015-11-01

Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

PubMed Central

Sabes, Philip N.

2015-01-01

Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

Fracture Characterization in Reactive Fluid-Fractured Rock Systems Using Tracer Transport Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.

2014-12-01

Fractures, whether natural or engineered, exert significant controls over resource exploitation from contemporary energy sources including enhanced geothermal systems and unconventional oil and gas reserves. Consequently, fracture characterization, i.e., estimating the permeability, connectivity, and spacing of the fractures is of critical importance for determining the viability of any energy recovery program. While some progress has recently been made towards estimating these critical fracture parameters, significant uncertainties still remain. A review of tracer technology, which has a long history in fracture characterization, reveals that uncertainties exist in the estimated parameters not only because of paucity of scale-specific data but also because of knowledge gaps in the interpretation methods, particularly in interpretation of tracer data in reactive fluid-rock systems. We have recently demonstrated that the transient tracer evolution signatures in reactive fluid-rock systems are significantly different from those in non-reactive systems (Mukhopadhyay et al., 2013, 2014). For example, the tracer breakthrough curves in reactive fluid-fractured rock systems are expected to exhibit a long pseudo-state condition, during which tracer concentration does not change by any appreciable amount with passage of time. Such a pseudo-steady state condition is not observed in a non-reactive system. In this paper, we show that the presence of this pseudo-steady state condition in tracer breakthrough patterns in reactive fluid-rock systems can have important connotations for fracture characterization. We show that the time of onset of the pseudo-steady state condition and the value of tracer concentration in the pseudo-state condition can be used to reliably estimate fracture spacing and fracture-matrix interface areas.

Low-flow characteristics of Indiana streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, J.A.

1983-01-01

Knowledge of low-flow data for Indiana streams is essential to the planners and developers of water resources for municipal, industrial, and recreational uses in the State. Low-flow data for 219 continuous-record gaging stations through the 1978 water year and for some stations since then are presented in tables and curves. Flow-duration and low-flow-frequency data were estimated or determined for continuous-record stations having more than 10 years of record. In addition, low-flow-frequency data were estimated for 248 partial-record stations. Methods for estimating these data are included in the report. (USGS)

τ → f1(1285) π-ν_{τ} decay in the extended Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volkov, M. K.; Pivovarov, A. A.; Osipov, A. A.

2018-04-01

Within the framework of the extended Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model, we calculate the matrix element of the τ → f1(1285) π- ν_{τ} decay, obtain the invariant mass distribution of the f1π-system and estimate the branching ratio Br(τ → f1 π-ν_{τ}) = 4.0× 10^{-4}. The two types of contributions are considered: the contact interaction, and the axial-vector IG(J^{PC})=1-(1^{++}) resonance exchange. The latter includes the ground a1(1260) state, and its first radially excited state, a1(1640). The corrections caused by the π-a1 transitions are taken into account. Our estimate is in a good agreement with the latest empirical result Br(τ → f1 π- ν_{τ})=(3.9± 0.5)× 10^{-4}. The distribution function obtained for the decay τ → f1(1285) π- ν_{τ} shows a clear signal of a1(1640) resonance which should be compared with future experimental data including our estimate of the decay width Γ (a1(1640) → f1 π)=14.1 MeV.

United States paper, paperboard, and market pulp capacity trends by process and location, 1970-2000

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Xiaolei Li; Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno; Mary Reuter

This report presents a relational database with estimates of annual production capacity for all mill locations in the United States where paper, paperboard, or market pulp were produced from 1970 to 2000. Data for more than 500 separate mill locations are included in the database, with annual capacity data for each year from 1970 to 2000 (more than 17, 000 individual...

Uganda: Current Conditions and the Crisis in North Uganda

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-09

Nations, the African Union , and the United States condemned the terrorist attacks. More than 20 suspects are currently in prison. Uganda: Current...An estimated 76 people, including one American, were killed and more than 80 injured. The United Nations, the African Union , and the United States...condemned the terrorist attacks. More than 20 suspects are currently in prison. The attacks took place at a rugby club and Ethiopian restaurant while

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.;

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2016-01-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle A.

2016-03-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Determining forest carbon stock losses due to wildfire disturbance in the Western United States

Treesearch

John M. Zobel; John W. Coulston

2015-01-01

Quantifying carbon stock losses after wildfire events is challenging due to the lack of detailed information before and after the disturbance. We propose to use the extensive Western FIA database (including periodic and annual inventories) to recreate pre- and post-fire conditions to better estimate actual carbon losses. Methods include using remeasurement date where...

Design of a two-level power system linear state estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao

The availability of synchro-phasor data has raised the possibility of a linear state estimator if the inputs are only complex currents and voltages and if there are enough such measurements to meet observability and redundancy requirements. Moreover, the new digital substations can perform some of the computation at the substation itself resulting in a more accurate two-level state estimator. The objective of this research is to develop a two-level linear state estimator processing synchro-phasor data and estimating the states at both the substation level and the control center level. Both the mathematical algorithms that are different from those in the present state estimation procedure and the layered architecture of databases, communications and application programs that are required to support this two-level linear state estimator are described in this dissertation. Besides, as the availability of phasor measurements at substations will increase gradually, this research also describes how the state estimator can be enhanced to handle both the traditional state estimator and the proposed linear state estimator simultaneously. This provides a way to immediately utilize the benefits in those parts of the system where such phasor measurements become available and provides a pathway to transition to the smart grid of the future. The design procedure of the two-level state estimator is applied to two study systems. The first study system is the IEEE-14 bus system. The second one is the 179 bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The static database for the substations is constructed from the power flow data of these systems and the real-time measurement database is produced by a power system dynamic simulating tool (TSAT). Time-skew problems that may be caused by communication delays are also considered and simulated. We used the Network Simulator (NS) tool to simulate a simple communication system and analyse its time delay performance. These time delays were too small to affect the results especially since the measurement data is time-stamped and the state estimator for these small systems could be run with subseconf frequency. Keywords: State Estimation, Synchro-Phasor Measurement, Distributed System, Energy Control Center, Substation, Time-skew

The private sector economic and employment benefits to the nation and to each state of proposed FY 1990 NASA procurement expenditures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

The private sector economic and employment benefits (disaggregated among 80 industries and 475 occupations) of the proposed FY 1990 NASA procurement expenditures to the nation and to each state are estimated. Nationwide, it is found that FY 1990 NASA procurement expenditures of $11.3 billion will have an economic multiplier of 2.1 and will create, directly and indirectly, 237,000 jobs, $23.2 billion in total industry sales, $2.4 billion in corporate profits, and $7.4 billion in Federal, state, and local government tax revenues. These benefits are widely dispersed throughout the United States and are significant in many states not normally considered to be major beneficiaries of NASA spending. The indirect economic benefits are identified for each state resulting from the second-, third-, and fourth rounds of industry purchases generated by NASA procurement expenditures. Each state is ranked on the basis of several criteria, including the total benefits, indirect benefits, and per capita benefits received from NASA spending. The estimates developed are important for maintaining a viable U.S. Space Program through the remainder of this century.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables. PMID:19183458

Comparison of examination-based and self-reported risk factors for cardiovascular disease, Washington State, 2006-2007.

PubMed

Van Eenwyk, Juliet; Bensley, Lillian; Ossiander, Eric M; Krueger, Karen

2012-01-01

Obesity, hypertension, and high cholesterol are risk factors for cardiovascular disease, which accounts for approximately 20% of deaths in Washington State. For most states, self-reports from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) provide the primary source of information on these risk factors. The objective of this study was to compare prevalence estimates of self-reported obesity, hypertension, and high cholesterol with examination-based measures of obesity, hypertension, and high-risk lipid profiles. During 2006-2007, the Washington Adult Health Survey (WAHS) included self-reported and examination-based measures of a random sample of 672 Washington State residents aged 25 years or older. We compared WAHS examination-based measures with self-reported measures from WAHS and the 2007 Washington BRFSS (WA-BRFSS). The estimated prevalence of obesity from WA-BRFSS (27.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.3%-27.8%) was lower than estimates derived from WAHS physical measurements (39.2%; 95% CI, 33.6%-45.1%) (P < .001). Prevalence estimates of hypertension based on self-reports from WA-BRFSS (28.1%; 95% CI, 27.4%-28.8%) and WAHS (33.4%; 95% CI, 29.4%-37.7%) were similar to the examination-based estimate (29.4%; 95% CI, 25.8%-33.4%). Prevalence estimates of high cholesterol based on self-reports from WA-BRFSS (38.3%; 95% CI, 37.5%-39.2%) and WAHS (41.8%; 95% CI, 35.8%-48.1%) were similar; both were lower than the examination-based WAHS estimate of high-risk lipid profiles (59.2%; 95% CI, 54.2%-64.2%) (P < .001). Self-reported heights and weights underestimate the prevalence of obesity. The prevalence of self-reported high cholesterol is significantly lower than the prevalence of high-risk lipid profiles. Periodic examination-based measurement provides perspective on routinely collected self-reports.

Classification and area estimation of land covers in Kansas using ground-gathered and LANDSAT digital data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

May, G. A.; Holko, M. L.; Anderson, J. E.

1983-01-01

Ground-gathered data and LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) digital data from 1981 were analyzed to produce a classification of Kansas land areas into specific types called land covers. The land covers included rangeland, forest, residential, commercial/industrial, and various types of water. The analysis produced two outputs: acreage estimates with measures of precision, and map-type or photo products of the classification which can be overlaid on maps at specific scales. State-level acreage estimates were obtained and substate-level land cover classification overlays and estimates were generated for selected geographical areas. These products were found to be of potential use in managing land and water resources.

Instantaneous and time-averaged dispersion and measurement models for estimation theory applications with elevated point source plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diamante, J. M.; Englar, T. S., Jr.; Jazwinski, A. H.

1977-01-01

Estimation theory, which originated in guidance and control research, is applied to the analysis of air quality measurements and atmospheric dispersion models to provide reliable area-wide air quality estimates. A method for low dimensional modeling (in terms of the estimation state vector) of the instantaneous and time-average pollutant distributions is discussed. In particular, the fluctuating plume model of Gifford (1959) is extended to provide an expression for the instantaneous concentration due to an elevated point source. Individual models are also developed for all parameters in the instantaneous and the time-average plume equations, including the stochastic properties of the instantaneous fluctuating plume.

A refined method for the calculation of the Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound emission estimate from Domestic Solvent Usage in Ireland from 1992 to 2014 - A case study for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barry, Stephen; O'Regan, Bernadette

2016-08-01

This study describes a new methodology to calculate Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds from Domestic Solvent Use including Fungicides over the period 1992-2014. Improved emissions data compiled at a much more refined level can help policy-makers develop more effective policy's to address environmental issues. However, a number of problems were found when member states attempt to use national statistics for Domestic Solvent Use including Fungicides. For instance, EMEP/EEA (2013) provides no guidance regarding which activity data should be used, resulting in emission estimates being potentially inconsistent and un-comparable. Also, previous methods and emission factors described in the EMEP/EEA (2013) guidebook do not exactly match data collected by state agencies. This makes using national statistics difficult. In addition, EMEP/EEA (2013) use broader categories than necessary (e.g. Cosmetics Aerosol/Non Aerosol) to estimate emissions while activity data is available at a more refined level scale (e.g. Personal Cleaning Products, Hair Products, Cosmetics, Deodorants and Perfumes). This can make identifying the drivers of emissions unclear. This study builds upon Tzanidakis et al. (2012) whereby it provides a method for collecting activity data from state statistics, developed country specific emission factors based on a survey of 177 Irish products and importantly, used a new method to account for the volatility of organic compounds found in commonly available domestic solvent containing products. This is the first study to account for volatility based on the characteristics of organic compounds and therefore is considered a more accurate method of accounting for emissions from this emission source. The results of this study can also be used to provide a simple method for other member parties to account for the volatility of organic compounds using sectorial adjustment factors described here. For comparison purposes, emission estimates were calculated using the Tier 1 approach currently used in the emission inventory, using activity data and emission factors unadjusted for volatility and adjusted for volatility. The unadjusted estimate is useful, because it demonstrates the failure to properly account for volatility can produce significantly over-estimated emissions from the Domestic Solvent Usage sector. Unadjusted emissions were found to be 30% lower than the EMEP/EEA (2013) Tier 1 period in 2014. Emissions were found to reduce a further 20.9% when the volatility of the organic compounds was included. This new method shows that member parties may be significantly overestimating emissions from Domestic Solvent Use including pesticides and further work should include refining organic compound content and the sectorial adjustment factor of products.

National variation of ADHD diagnostic prevalence and medication use: health care providers and education policies.

PubMed

Fulton, Brent D; Scheffler, Richard M; Hinshaw, Stephen P; Levine, Peter; Stone, Susan; Brown, Timothy T; Modrek, Sepideh

2009-08-01

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnostic prevalence and medication use vary across U.S. census regions, but little is known about state-level variation. The purpose of this study was to estimate this variation across states and examine whether a state's health care provider characteristics and education policies are associated with this variation. Logistic regression models were estimated with 69,505 children aged four to 17 from the state-stratified and nationally representative 2003 National Survey of Children's Health, conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Diagnostic prevalence was higher in the South (odds ratio [OR]=1.42, p<.001) than in the West; among children with ADHD diagnoses, medication use was higher in the South (OR=1.60, p<.01) and the Midwest (OR=1.53, p<.01) versus the West. On these measures, several states differed from the U.S. averages, including some states that, on the basis of the regional patterns found above, would not be expected to differ: Michigan had a high diagnostic prevalence; Vermont, South Dakota, and Nebraska had low diagnostic prevalences; and Connecticut, New Jersey, and Kentucky had low medication rates. Both diagnosis and medication status were associated with the number, age, and type of physicians within a state, particularly pediatricians. However, state education policies were not significantly associated with either diagnostic prevalence or medication rates. To better understand the association between a state's health care provider characteristics and both diagnostic prevalence and medication use, it may be fruitful to examine the content of provider continuing education programs, including the recommendations of major health professional organization guidelines to treat ADHD.

Synthetic clock states generated in a Bose-Einstein condensate via continuous dynamical decoupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundblad, Nathan; Trypogeorgos, Dimitrios; Valdes-Curiel, Ana; Marshall, Erin; Spielman, Ian

2017-04-01

Radiofrequency- or microwave-dressed states have been used in NV center and ion-trap experiments to extend coherence times, shielding qubits from magnetic field noise through a process known as continuous dynamical decoupling. Such field-insensitive dressed states, as applied in the context of ultracold neutral atoms, have applications related to the creation of novel phases of spin-orbit-coupled quantum matter. We present observations of such a protected dressed-state system in a Bose-Einstein condensate, including measurements of the dependence of the protection on rf coupling strength, and estimates of residual field sensitivities.

Cigarette quitlines, taxes, and other tobacco control policies: a state-level analysis.

PubMed

Brown, Henry Shelton; Karson, Steve

2013-06-01

This paper estimates monthly quitline calls using panel data at the state level from January 2005 to June 2010. Calls to state quitline numbers (or 1-800-QUITNOW) were measured per million adult smokers in each state. The policies considered include excise taxes, workplace and public smoking bans, and a Peter Jennings television-based program warning of the health risks of smoking. We found that people anticipating increases in prices begin attempting to quit by calling quitlines. Finally, the Peter Jennings media campaign was highly correlated with quitline calls. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare species and provide tools for planning marten recovery in the northeastern United States.

Air quality and human health impacts of grasslands and shrublands in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalakrishnan, Varsha; Hirabayashi, Satoshi; Ziv, Guy; Bakshi, Bhavik R.

2018-06-01

Vegetation including canopy, grasslands, and shrublands can directly sequester pollutants onto the plant surface, resulting in an improvement in air quality. Until now, several studies have estimated the pollution removal capacity of canopy cover at the level of a county, but no such work exists for grasslands and shrublands. This work quantifies the air pollution removal capacity of grasslands and shrublands at the county-level in the United States and estimates the human health benefits associated with pollution removal using the i-Tree Eco model. Sequestration of pollutants is estimated based on the Leaf Area Index (LAI) obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived dataset estimates of LAI and the percentage land cover obtained from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the year 2010. Calculation of pollution removal capacity using local environmental data indicates that grasslands and shrublands remove a total of 6.42 million tonnes of air pollutants in the United States and the associated monetary benefits total 268 million. Human health impacts and associated monetary value due to pollution removal was observed to be significantly high in urban areas indicating that grasslands and shrublands are equally critical as canopy in improving air quality and human health in urban regions.

The potential impact of reducing indoor tanning on melanoma prevention and treatment costs in the United States: An economic analysis.

PubMed

Guy, Gery P; Zhang, Yuanhui; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Rim, Sun Hee; Watson, Meg

2017-02-01

Indoor tanning is associated with an increased risk of melanoma. The US Food and Drug Administration proposed prohibiting indoor tanning among minors younger than 18 years. We sought to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing indoor tanning in the United States. We used a Markov model to estimate the expected number of melanoma cases and deaths averted, life-years saved, and melanoma treatment costs saved by reducing indoor tanning. We examined 5 scenarios: restricting indoor tanning among minors younger than 18 years, and reducing the prevalence by 20%, 50%, 80%, and 100%. Restricting indoor tanning among minors younger than 18 years was estimated to prevent 61,839 melanoma cases, prevent 6735 melanoma deaths, and save $342.9 million in treatment costs over the lifetime of the 61.2 million youth age 14 years or younger in the United States. The estimated health and economic benefits increased as indoor tanning was further reduced. Limitations include the reliance on available data and not examining compliance to indoor tanning laws. Reducing indoor tanning has the potential to reduce melanoma incidence, mortality, and treatment costs. These findings help quantify and underscore the importance of continued efforts to reduce indoor tanning and prevent melanoma. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Development of a preference-based index from the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire-25.

PubMed

Rentz, Anne M; Kowalski, Jonathan W; Walt, John G; Hays, Ron D; Brazier, John E; Yu, Ren; Lee, Paul; Bressler, Neil; Revicki, Dennis A

2014-03-01

Understanding how individuals value health states is central to patient-centered care and to health policy decision making. Generic preference-based measures of health may not effectively capture the impact of ocular diseases. Recently, 6 items from the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire-25 were used to develop the Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index health state classification, which defines visual function health states. To describe elicitation of preferences for health states generated from the Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index health state classification and development of an algorithm to estimate health preference scores for any health state. Nonintervention, cross-sectional study of the general community in 4 countries (Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, and United States). A total of 607 adult participants were recruited from local newspaper advertisements. In the United Kingdom, an existing database of participants from previous studies was used for recruitment. Eight of 15,625 possible health states from the Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index were valued using time trade-off technique. A θ severity score was calculated for Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index-defined health states using item response theory analysis. Regression models were then used to develop an algorithm to assign health state preference values for all potential health states defined by the Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index. Health state preference values for the 8 states ranged from a mean (SD) of 0.343 (0.395) to 0.956 (0.124). As expected, preference values declined with worsening visual function. Results indicate that the Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index describes states that participants view as spanning most of the continuum from full health to dead. Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index health state classification produces health preference scores that can be estimated in vision-related studies that include the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire-25. These preference scores may be of value for estimating utilities in economic and health policy analyses.

Downscaling U.S. public opinion about climate change and the 'Six Americas' to states, cities, and counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlon, J. R.; Howe, P. D.; Leiserowitz, A.

2013-12-01

For climate change communication to be most effective, messages should be targeted to the characteristics of local audiences. In the U.S., 'Six Americas' have been identified among the public based on their response to the climate change issue. The distribution of these different 'publics' varies between states and communities, yet data about public opinion at the sub-national scale remains scarce. In this presentation, we describe a methodology to statistically downscale results from national-level surveys about the Six Americas, climate literacy, and other aspects of public opinion to smaller areas, including states, metropolitan areas, and counties. The method utilizes multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) to model public opinion at various scales using a large national-level survey dataset. We present state and county-level estimates of two key beliefs about climate change: belief that climate change is happening, and belief in the scientific consensus about climate change. We further present estimates of how the Six Americas vary across the U.S.

State of balance of the cryosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Der Veen, C. J.

1991-01-01

Available observations and mass balance estimates of the cryosphere are summarized. Problems discussed include mountain glaciers, the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet, conventional glacier measurement techniques, and satellite applications in glacier mass balance studies. It is concluded that the interior part of the Greenland ice sheet is thickening or in near equilibrium. Estimates of the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet suggest that it is positive, although the error limits allow for a slightly negative balance.

Estimated use of water in the United States in 1975

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, Charles Richard; Reeves, E. Bodette

1977-01-01

Estimates of water use in the United States in 1975 indicate that an average of about 420 bgd (billion gallons per day) about 1,900 gallons per capita per day was withdrawn for the four principal off-channel uses which are (1) publicsupply (for domestic, commercial, and industrial uses), (2) rural (domestic and livestock), (3) irrigation, and (4) self-supplied industrial (including thermoelectric power). In 1975, withdrawals for these uses exceeded by 11.7 percent the 370 bgd estimated for 1970. Increases in the various categories of off-channel water use since 1970 were: approximately 12.8 percent for self-supplied industry (mainly in electric-utility thermoelectric plants), 7.9 percent for public supplies, 10.3 percent for rural supplies, and 10.9 percent for irrigation. Industrial water withdrawals included 70 bgd of saline water, a 30 percent increase in 5 years. The fifth principal withdrawal use, hydroelectric power (an in-channel use), amounted to 3,300 bgd, a 5-year increase of 20.7 percent. In computing total withdrawals, recycling within a plant (reuse) is not counted, but withdrawal of the same water by a downstream user (cumulative withdrawals) is counted. The quantity of freshwater consumed that is, water made unavailable for further possible withdrawal because of evaporation, incorporation in crops and manufactured products, and other causes was estimated to average 96 bgd for 1975, an increase of about 10 percent since 1970.

A hybrid approach to estimating national scale spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Beckerman, Bernardo S; Jerrett, Michael; Serre, Marc; Martin, Randall V; Lee, Seung-Jae; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Ross, Zev; Su, Jason; Burnett, Richard T

2013-07-02

Airborne fine particulate matter exhibits spatiotemporal variability at multiple scales, which presents challenges to estimating exposures for health effects assessment. Here we created a model to predict ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) across the contiguous United States to be applied to health effects modeling. We developed a hybrid approach combining a land use regression model (LUR) selected with a machine learning method, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation of the LUR space-time residuals. The PM2.5 data set included 104,172 monthly observations at 1464 monitoring locations with approximately 10% of locations reserved for cross-validation. LUR models were based on remote sensing estimates of PM2.5, land use and traffic indicators. Normalized cross-validated R(2) values for LUR were 0.63 and 0.11 with and without remote sensing, respectively, suggesting remote sensing is a strong predictor of ground-level concentrations. In the models including the BME interpolation of the residuals, cross-validated R(2) were 0.79 for both configurations; the model without remotely sensed data described more fine-scale variation than the model including remote sensing. Our results suggest that our modeling framework can predict ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 at multiple scales over the contiguous U.S.

How censuses aid policymakers.

PubMed

Robey, B

1987-08-01

The author discusses the eleventh Asian and Pacific Population Census Conference, held in 1986 in Sydney and Canberra, Australia. The focus of the meeting was on the value of census data for analyzing social policy issues; participants included population experts from Asian and Pacific countries, Canada, and the United States. Topics include literacy measurement, fertility and mortality estimation, studies of the elderly, and preparations for the 1990 round of censuses, including information processing and increased use of automation.

Prediction of Sublimation Pressures of Low Volatility Solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drake, Bruce Douglas

Sublimation pressures are required for solid-vapor phase equilibrium models in design of processes such as supercritical fluid extraction, sublimation purification and vapor epitaxy. The objective of this work is to identify and compare alternative methods for predicting sublimation pressures. A bibliography of recent sublimation data is included. Corresponding states methods based on the triple point (rather than critical point) are examined. A modified Trouton's rule is the preferred method for estimating triple point pressure in the absence of any sublimation data. Only boiling and melting temperatures are required. Typical error in log_{10} P _{rm triple} is 0.3. For lower temperature estimates, the slope of the sublimation curve is predicted by a correlation based on molar volume. Typical error is 10% of slope. Molecular dynamics methods for surface modeling are tested as estimators of vapor pressure. The time constants of the vapor and solid phases are too different to allow the vapor to come to thermal equilibrium with the solid. The method shows no advantages in prediction of sublimation pressure but provides insight into appropriate models and experimental methods for sublimation. Density-dependent augmented van der Waals equations of state based on hard-sphere distribution functions are examined. The perturbation term is almost linear and is well fit by a simple quadratic. Use of the equation provides reasonable fitting of sublimation pressures from one data point. Order-of-magnitude estimation is possible from melting temperature and solid molar volume. The inverse -12 fluid is used to develop an additional equation of state. Sublimation pressure results, including quality of pressure predictions, are similar to the hard-sphere results. Three-body (Axilrod -Teller) interactions are used to improve results.

Combining multistate capture-recapture data with tag recoveries to estimate demographic parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Conn, P.B.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Matrix population models that allow an animal to occupy more than one state over time are important tools for population and evolutionary ecologists. Definition of state can vary, including location for metapopulation models and breeding state for life history models. For populations whose members can be marked and subsequently re-encountered, multistate mark-recapture models are available to estimate the survival and transition probabilities needed to construct population models. Multistate models have proved extremely useful in this context, but they often require a substantial amount of data and restrict estimation of transition probabilities to those areas or states subjected to formal sampling effort. At the same time, for many species, there are considerable tag recovery data provided by the public that could be modeled in order to increase precision and to extend inference to a greater number of areas or states. Here we present a statistical model for combining multistate capture-recapture data (e.g., from a breeding ground study) with multistate tag recovery data (e.g., from wintering grounds). We use this method to analyze data from a study of Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) in the Atlantic Flyway of North America. Our analysis produced marginal improvement in precision, due to relatively few recoveries, but we demonstrate how precision could be further improved with increases in the probability that a retrieved tag is reported.

Health Auctions: a Valuation Experiment (HAVE) study protocol.

PubMed

Kularatna, Sanjeewa; Petrie, Dennis; Scuffham, Paul A; Byrnes, Joshua

2016-04-07

Quality-adjusted life years are derived using health state utility weights which adjust for the relative value of living in each health state compared with living in perfect health. Various techniques are used to estimate health state utility weights including time-trade-off and standard gamble. These methods have exhibited limitations in terms of complexity, validity and reliability. A new composite approach using experimental auctions to value health states is introduced in this protocol. A pilot study will test the feasibility and validity of using experimental auctions to value health states in monetary terms. A convenient sample (n=150) from a population of university staff and students will be invited to participate in 30 auction sets with a group of 5 people in each set. The 9 health states auctioned in each auction set will come from the commonly used EQ-5D-3L instrument. At most participants purchase 2 health states, and the participant who acquires the 2 'best' health states on average will keep the amount of money they do not spend in acquiring those health states. The value (highest bid and average bid) of each of the 24 health states will be compared across auctions to test for reliability across auction groups and across auctioneers. A test retest will be conducted for 10% of the sample to assess reliability of responses for health states auctions. Feasibility of conducting experimental auctions to value health states will also be examined. The validity of estimated health states values will be compared with published utility estimates from other methods. This pilot study will explore the feasibility, reliability and validity in using experimental auction for valuing health states. Ethical clearance was obtained from Griffith University ethics committee. The results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and major international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Merging Psychophysical and Psychometric Theory to Estimate Global Visual State Measures from Forced-Choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massof, Robert W.; Schmidt, Karen M.; Laby, Daniel M.; Kirschen, David; Meadows, David

2013-09-01

Visual acuity, a forced-choice psychophysical measure of visual spatial resolution, is the sine qua non of clinical visual impairment testing in ophthalmology and optometry patients with visual system disorders ranging from refractive error to retinal, optic nerve, or central visual system pathology. Visual acuity measures are standardized against a norm, but it is well known that visual acuity depends on a variety of stimulus parameters, including contrast and exposure duration. This paper asks if it is possible to estimate a single global visual state measure from visual acuity measures as a function of stimulus parameters that can represent the patient's overall visual health state with a single variable. Psychophysical theory (at the sensory level) and psychometric theory (at the decision level) are merged to identify the conditions that must be satisfied to derive a global visual state measure from parameterised visual acuity measures. A global visual state measurement model is developed and tested with forced-choice visual acuity measures from 116 subjects with no visual impairments and 560 subjects with uncorrected refractive error. The results are in agreement with the expectations of the model.

UAV State Estimation Modeling Techniques in AHRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razali, Shikin; Zhahir, Amzari

2017-11-01

Autonomous unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) system is depending on state estimation feedback to control flight operation. Estimation on the correct state improves navigation accuracy and achieves flight mission safely. One of the sensors configuration used in UAV state is Attitude Heading and Reference System (AHRS) with application of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) or feedback controller. The results of these two different techniques in estimating UAV states in AHRS configuration are displayed through position and attitude graphs.

The potential supply of organ donors. An assessment of the efficacy of organ procurement efforts in the United States.

PubMed

Evans, R W; Orians, C E; Ascher, N L

1992-01-08

To estimate the potential supply of organ donors and to measure the efficiency of organ procurement efforts in the United States. A geographic database has been developed consisting of multiple cause of death and sociodemographic data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. All deaths are evaluated as to their potential for organ donation. Two classes of potential donors are identified: class 1 estimates are restricted to causes of death involving significant head trauma only, and class 2 estimates include class 1 estimates as well as deaths in which brain death was less probable. Over 23,000 people are currently awaiting a kidney, heart, liver, heart-lung, pancreas, or lung transplantation. Donor supply is inadequate, and the number of donors remained unchanged at approximately 4000 annually for 1986 through 1989, with a modest 9.1% increase in 1990. Between 6900 and 10,700 potential donors are available annually (eg, 28.5 to 43.7 per million population). Depending on the class of donor considered, organ procurement efforts are between 37% and 59% efficient. Efficiency greatly varies by state and organ procurement organization. Many more organ donors are available than are being accessed through existing organ procurement efforts. Realistically, it may be possible to increase by 80% the number of donors available in the United States (up to 7300 annually). It is conceivable, although unlikely, that the supply of donor organs could achieve a level to meet demand.

Both respiration and photosynthesis determine the scaling of plankton metabolism in the oligotrophic ocean

PubMed Central

Serret, Pablo; Robinson, Carol; Aranguren-Gassis, María; García-Martín, Enma Elena; Gist, Niki; Kitidis, Vassilis; Lozano, José; Stephens, John; Harris, Carolyn; Thomas, Rob

2015-01-01

Despite its importance to ocean–climate interactions, the metabolic state of the oligotrophic ocean has remained controversial for >15 years. Positions in the debate are that it is either hetero- or autotrophic, which suggests either substantial unaccounted for organic matter inputs, or that all available photosynthesis (P) estimations (including 14C) are biased. Here we show the existence of systematic differences in the metabolic state of the North (heterotrophic) and South (autotrophic) Atlantic oligotrophic gyres, resulting from differences in both P and respiration (R). The oligotrophic ocean is neither auto- nor heterotrophic, but functionally diverse. Our results show that the scaling of plankton metabolism by generalized P:R relationships that has sustained the debate is biased, and indicate that the variability of R, and not only of P, needs to be considered in regional estimations of the ocean's metabolic state. PMID:25908109

Agricultural pesticide emissions associated with common crops in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benjey, W.G.

Annual emissions for the year 1987 from the application of agricultural pesticides have been estimated by crop type by county for the United States using a geographic information system. The emissions estimates are based upon computed volatilization rates accounting for the properties of each pesticide, evaporation rates, mode of application (surface or soil incorporation) and percent of interception by leaves. Key pesticide properties include the Henry's Law constant, half-life in soil and the organic carbon partitioning coefficient. The volatilization rates are multiplied by the amount of pesticide applied by crop acreage in each county as determined from agricultural census andmore » pesticide sales data. The geographic distribution of the dominant emissions, such as atrazine and diazinon, etc. are presented by crop type and state. For a given pesticide, the geographic variability is controlled principally by amount applied and water availability as reflected in evaporation rates.« less

Data-based fault-tolerant control for affine nonlinear systems with actuator faults.

PubMed

Xie, Chun-Hua; Yang, Guang-Hong

2016-09-01

This paper investigates the fault-tolerant control (FTC) problem for unknown nonlinear systems with actuator faults including stuck, outage, bias and loss of effectiveness. The upper bounds of stuck faults, bias faults and loss of effectiveness faults are unknown. A new data-based FTC scheme is proposed. It consists of the online estimations of the bounds and a state-dependent function. The estimations are adjusted online to compensate automatically the actuator faults. The state-dependent function solved by using real system data helps to stabilize the system. Furthermore, all signals in the resulting closed-loop system are uniformly bounded and the states converge asymptotically to zero. Compared with the existing results, the proposed approach is data-based. Finally, two simulation examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona; Markowitz, Lauri E

2008-02-01

We describe a simplified model, based on the current economic and health effects of human papillomavirus (HPV), to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls in the United States. Under base-case parameter values, the estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by vaccination in the context of current cervical cancer screening practices in the United States ranged from $3,906 to $14,723 (2005 US dollars), depending on factors such as whether herd immunity effects were assumed; the types of HPV targeted by the vaccine; and whether the benefits of preventing anal, vaginal, vulvar, and oropharyngeal cancers were included. The results of our simplified model were consistent with published studies based on more complex models when key assumptions were similar. This consistency is reassuring because models of varying complexity will be essential tools for policy makers in the development of optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves, 1992 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-10-18

This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1992, as well as production volumes for the United States, and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1992. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), its two major components (nonassociated and associated-dissolved gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, two components of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, have their reservesmore » and production data presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1992 is provided.« less

Information geometry of Gaussian channels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Monras, Alex; CNR-INFM Coherentia, Napoli; CNISM Unita di Salerno

2010-06-15

We define a local Riemannian metric tensor in the manifold of Gaussian channels and the distance that it induces. We adopt an information-geometric approach and define a metric derived from the Bures-Fisher metric for quantum states. The resulting metric inherits several desirable properties from the Bures-Fisher metric and is operationally motivated by distinguishability considerations: It serves as an upper bound to the attainable quantum Fisher information for the channel parameters using Gaussian states, under generic constraints on the physically available resources. Our approach naturally includes the use of entangled Gaussian probe states. We prove that the metric enjoys some desirablemore » properties like stability and covariance. As a by-product, we also obtain some general results in Gaussian channel estimation that are the continuous-variable analogs of previously known results in finite dimensions. We prove that optimal probe states are always pure and bounded in the number of ancillary modes, even in the presence of constraints on the reduced state input in the channel. This has experimental and computational implications. It limits the complexity of optimal experimental setups for channel estimation and reduces the computational requirements for the evaluation of the metric: Indeed, we construct a converging algorithm for its computation. We provide explicit formulas for computing the multiparametric quantum Fisher information for dissipative channels probed with arbitrary Gaussian states and provide the optimal observables for the estimation of the channel parameters (e.g., bath couplings, squeezing, and temperature).« less

Comparing oral health care utilization estimates in the United States across three nationally representative surveys.

PubMed

Macek, Mark D; Manski, Richard J; Vargas, Clemencia M; Moeller, John F

2002-04-01

To compare estimates of dental visits among adults using three national surveys. Cross-sectional data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and National Health Expenditure surveys (NMCES, NMES, MEPS). This secondary data analysis assessed whether overall estimates and stratum-specific trends are different across surveys. Dental visit data are age standardized via the direct method to the 1990 population of the United States. Point estimates, standard errors, and test statistics are generated using SUDAAN. Sociodemographic, stratum-specific trends are generally consistent across surveys; however, overall estimates differ (NHANES III [364-day estimate] versus 1993 NHIS: -17.5 percent difference, Z = 7.27, p value < 0.001; NHANES III [365-day estimate] vs. 1993 NHIS: 5.4 percent difference, Z = -2.50, p value = 0.006; MEPS vs. 1993 NHIS: -29.8 percent difference, Z = 16.71, p value < 0.001). MEPS is the least susceptible to intrusion, telescoping, and social desirability. Possible explanations for discrepancies include different reference periods, lead-in statements, question format, and social desirability of responses. Choice of survey should depend on the hypothesis. If trends are necessary, choice of survey should not matter however, if health status or expenditure associations are necessary, then surveys that contain these variables should be used, and if accurate overall estimates are necessary, then MEPS should be used. A validation study should be conducted to establish "true" utilization estimates.

Analysis of Wind Tunnel Oscillatory Data of the X-31A Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Mark S.

1999-01-01

Wind tunnel oscillatory tests in pitch, roll, and yaw were performed on a 19%-scale model of the X-31A aircraft. These tests were used to study the aerodynamic characteristics of the X-31A in response to harmonic oscillations at six frequencies. In-phase and out-of-phase components of the aerodynamic coefficients were obtained over a range of angles of attack from 0 to 90 deg. To account for the effect of frequency on the data, mathematical models with unsteady terms were formulated by use of two different indicial functions. Data from a reduced set of frequencies were used to estimate model parameters, including steady-state static and dynamic stability derivatives. Both models showed good prediction capability and the ability to accurately fit the measured data. Estimated static stability derivatives compared well with those obtained from static wind tunnel tests. The roll and yaw rate derivative estimates were compared with rotary-balanced wind tunnel data and theoretical predictions. The estimates and theoretical predictions were in agreement at small angles of attack. The rotary-balance data showed, in general, acceptable agreement with the steady-state derivative estimates.

Dietary polyphenol intake and their major food sources in the Mexican Teachers' Cohort.

PubMed

Zamora-Ros, Raul; Biessy, Carine; Rothwell, Joseph A; Monge, Adriana; Lajous, Martin; Scalbert, Augustin; López-Ridaura, Ruy; Romieu, Isabelle

2018-06-04

Several descriptive studies on the intake of polyphenols, mostly flavonoids, have been published, especially in Europe and the USA, but insufficient data are still available in Latin-American countries, where different types of foods are consumed and different dietary habits are observed. The goal of this cross-sectional study was to estimate dietary intakes of polyphenols, including grand total, total per classes and subclasses and individual compounds, and to identify their main food sources in Mexican women. The Mexican Teachers' Cohort includes 115 315 female teachers, 25 years and older, from twelve states of Mexico, including urban and rural areas. Dietary data were collected in the period 2008-2011 using a validated FFQ, and individual polyphenol intake was estimated using food composition data from the Phenol-Explorer database. Median total polyphenol intake was the highest in Baja California (750 mg/d) and the lowest in Yucatan (536 mg/d). The main polyphenols consumed were phenolic acids (56·3-68·5 % total polyphenols), followed by flavonoids (28·8-40·9 %). Intake of other polyphenol subclasses (stilbenes, lignans and others) was insignificant. Coffee and fruits were the most important food sources of phenolic acids and flavonoids, respectively. Intake of a total of 287 different individual polyphenols could be estimated, of which forty-two were consumed in an amount ≥1 mg/d. The most largely consumed polyphenols were several caffeoylquinic acids (ranging from 20 and 460 mg/d), ferulic acid, hesperidin and proanthocyanidins. This study shows a large heterogeneity in intakes of individual polyphenols among Mexican women, but a moderate heterogeneity across Mexican states. Main food sources were also similar in the different states.

Flood characteristics of urban watersheds in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.; Thomas, W.O.; Stricker, V.A.; Wilson, K.V.

1983-01-01

A nationwide study of flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas was made for the purpose of reviewing available literature, compiling an urban flood data base, and developing methods of estimating urban floodflow characteristics in ungaged areas. The literature review contains synopses of 128 recent publications related to urban floodflow. A data base of 269 gaged basins in 56 cities and 31 States, including Hawaii, contains a wide variety of topographic and climatic characteristics, land-use variables, indices of urbanization, and flood-frequency estimates. Three sets of regression equations were developed to estimate flood discharges for ungaged sites for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years. Two sets of regression equations are based on seven independent parameters and the third is based on three independent parameters. The only difference in the two sets of seven-parameter equations is the use of basin lag time in one and lake and reservoir storage in the other. Of primary importance in these equations is an independent estimate of the equivalent rural discharge for the ungaged basin. The equations adjust the equivalent rural discharge to an urban condition. The primary adjustment factor, or index of urbanization, is the basin development factor, a measure of the extent of development of the drainage system in the basin. This measure includes evaluations of storm drains (sewers), channel improvements, and curb-and-gutter streets. The basin development factor is statistically very significant and offers a simple and effective way of accounting for drainage development and runoff response in urban areas. Percentage of impervious area is also included in the seven-parameter equations as an additional measure of urbanization and apparently accounts for increased runoff volumes. This factor is not highly significant for large floods, which supports the generally held concept that imperviousness is not a dominant factor when soils become more saturated during large storms. Other parameters in the seven-parameter equations include drainage area size, channel slope, rainfall intensity, lake and reservoir storage, and basin lag time. These factors are all statistically significant and provide logical indices of basin conditions. The three-parameter equations include only the three most significant parameters: rural discharge, basin-development factor, and drainage area size. All three sets of regression equations provide unbiased estimates of urban flood frequency. The seven-parameter regression equations without basin lag time have average standard errors of regression varying from ? 37 percent for the 5-year flood to ? 44 percent for the 100-year flood and ? 49 percent for the 500-year flood. The other two sets of regression equations have similar accuracy. Several tests for bias, sensitivity, and hydrologic consistency are included which support the conclusion that the equations are useful throughout the United States. All estimating equations were developed from data collected on drainage basins where temporary in-channel storage, due to highway embankments, was not significant. Consequently, estimates made with these equations do not account for the reducing effect of this temporary detention storage.

New geothermal site identification and qualification. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2004-04-01

This study identifies remaining undeveloped geothermal resources in California and western Nevada, and it estimates the development costs of each. It has relied on public-domain information and such additional data as geothermal developers have chosen to make available. Reserve estimation has been performed by volumetric analysis with a probabilistic approach to uncertain input parameters. Incremental geothermal reserves in the California/Nevada study area have a minimum value of 2,800 grosss MW and a most-likely value of 4,300 gross MW. For the state of California alone, these values are 2,000 and 3,000 gross MW, respectively. These estimates may be conservative to themore » extent that they do not take into account resources about which little or no public-domain information is available. The average capital cost of incremental generation capacity is estimated to average $3,100/kW for the California/Nevada study area, and $2,950/kW for the state of California alone. These cost estimates include exploration, confirmation drilling, development drilling, plant construction, and transmission-line costs. For the purposes of this study, a capital cost of $2,400/kW is considered competitive with other renewable resources. The amount of incremental geothermal capacity available at or below $2,400/kW is about 1,700 gross MW for the California/Nevada study area, and the same amount (within 50-MW rounding) for the state of California alone. The capital cost estimates are only approximate, because each developer would bring its own experience, bias, and opportunities to the development process. Nonetheless, the overall costs per project estimated in this study are believed to be reasonable.« less

How many individuals will need to be screened to increase colorectal cancer screening prevalence to 80% by 2018?

PubMed

Fedewa, Stacey A; Ma, Jiemin; Sauer, Ann Goding; Siegel, Rebecca L; Smith, Robert A; Wender, Richard C; Doroshenk, Mary K; Brawley, Otis W; Ward, Elizabeth M; Jemal, Ahmedin

2015-12-01

A recent study estimates that 277,000 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and 203,000 CRC deaths will be averted between 2013 and 2030 if the National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable goal of increasing CRC screening prevalence to 80% by 2018 is reached. However, the number of individuals who need to be screened (NNS) to achieve this goal is unknown. In this communication, the authors estimate the NNS to achieve 80% by 2018 nationwide and by state. The authors estimated the NNS by subtracting adults aged 50 to 75 years who would need to be screened to achieve an 80% CRC screening prevalence from the number who are currently guideline-compliant from population estimates for this age group. The 2013 National Health Interview Survey and the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to estimate CRC screening prevalence and data from the US Census Bureau were used to estimate population projections. The NNS were age-standardized and sex-standardized. Nationwide, 24.39 million individuals (95% confidence interval, 24.37-24.41 million) aged 50 to 75 years will need to be screened to achieve 80% by 2018. By state, the NNS ranged from 45,400 in Vermont to 2.72 million in California. The majority of individuals who need to be screened are aged 50 to 64 years and the largest subgroup is privately insured. The authors estimated that at least 24.4 million additional individuals in the United States will need to be screened to achieve the National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable goal of increasing CRC screening prevalence to 80% by 2018. To reach this goal, improving facilitators of CRC screening, including physician recommendation and patient awareness, is needed. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Implications of surfactant-induced flow for miscible-displacement estimation of air-water interfacial areas in unsaturated porous media.

PubMed

Costanza-Robinson, Molly S; Zheng, Zheng; Henry, Eric J; Estabrook, Benjamin D; Littlefield, Malcolm H

2012-10-16

Surfactant miscible-displacement experiments represent a conventional means of estimating air-water interfacial area (A(I)) in unsaturated porous media. However, changes in surface tension during the experiment can potentially induce unsaturated flow, thereby altering interfacial areas and violating several fundamental method assumptions, including that of steady-state flow. In this work, the magnitude of surfactant-induced flow was quantified by monitoring moisture content and perturbations to effluent flow rate during miscible-displacement experiments conducted using a range of surfactant concentrations. For systems initially at 83% moisture saturation (S(W)), decreases of 18-43% S(W) occurred following surfactant introduction, with the magnitude and rate of drainage inversely related to the surface tension of the surfactant solution. Drainage induced by 0.1 mM sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate, commonly used for A(I) estimation, resulted in effluent flow rate increases of up to 27% above steady-state conditions and is estimated to more than double the interfacial area over the course of the experiment. Depending on the surfactant concentration and the moisture content used to describe the system, A(I) estimates varied more than 3-fold. The magnitude of surfactant-induced flow is considerably larger than previously recognized and casts doubt on the reliability of A(I) estimation by surfactant miscible-displacement.

NEXRAD quantitative precipitation estimates, data acquisition, and processing for the DuPage County, Illinois, streamflow-simulation modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortel, Terry W.; Spies, Ryan R.

2015-11-19

Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) has become an integral component in the estimation of precipitation (Kitzmiller and others, 2013). The high spatial and temporal resolution of NEXRAD has revolutionized the ability to estimate precipitation across vast regions, which is especially beneficial in areas without a dense rain-gage network. With the improved precipitation estimates, hydrologic models can produce reliable streamflow forecasts for areas across the United States. NEXRAD data from the National Weather Service (NWS) has been an invaluable tool used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for numerous projects and studies; NEXRAD data processing techniques similar to those discussed in this Fact Sheet have been developed within the USGS, including the NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimates archive developed by Blodgett (2013).

Estimates of Stellar Weak Interaction Rates for Nuclei in the Mass Range A=65-80

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pruet, Jason; Fuller, George M.

2003-11-01

We estimate lepton capture and emission rates, as well as neutrino energy loss rates, for nuclei in the mass range A=65-80. These rates are calculated on a temperature/density grid appropriate for a wide range of astrophysical applications including simulations of late time stellar evolution and X-ray bursts. The basic inputs in our single-particle and empirically inspired model are (i) experimentally measured level information, weak transition matrix elements, and lifetimes, (ii) estimates of matrix elements for allowed experimentally unmeasured transitions based on the systematics of experimentally observed allowed transitions, and (iii) estimates of the centroids of the GT resonances motivated by shell model calculations in the fp shell as well as by (n, p) and (p, n) experiments. Fermi resonances (isobaric analog states) are also included, and it is shown that Fermi transitions dominate the rates for most interesting proton-rich nuclei for which an experimentally determined ground state lifetime is unavailable. For the purposes of comparing our results with more detailed shell model based calculations we also calculate weak rates for nuclei in the mass range A=60-65 for which Langanke & Martinez-Pinedo have provided rates. The typical deviation in the electron capture and β-decay rates for these ~30 nuclei is less than a factor of 2 or 3 for a wide range of temperature and density appropriate for presupernova stellar evolution. We also discuss some subtleties associated with the partition functions used in calculations of stellar weak rates and show that the proper treatment of the partition functions is essential for estimating high-temperature β-decay rates. In particular, we show that partition functions based on unconverged Lanczos calculations can result in errors in estimates of high-temperature β-decay rates.

Optimal interpolation schemes to constrain pmPM2.5 in regional modeling over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousan, Sinan Dhia Jameel

This thesis presents the use of data assimilation with optimal interpolation (OI) to develop atmospheric aerosol concentration estimates for the United States at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Concentration estimates are highly desirable for a wide range of applications, including visibility, climate, and human health. OI is a viable data assimilation method that can be used to improve Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model fine particulate matter (PM2.5) estimates. PM2.5 is the mass of solid and liquid particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm suspended in the gas phase. OI was employed by combining model estimates with satellite and surface measurements. The satellite data assimilation combined 36 x 36 km aerosol concentrations from CMAQ with aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured by MODIS and AERONET over the continental United States for 2002. Posterior model concentrations generated by the OI algorithm were compared with surface PM2.5 measurements to evaluate a number of possible data assimilation parameters, including model error, observation error, and temporal averaging assumptions. Evaluation was conducted separately for six geographic U.S. regions in 2002. Variability in model error and MODIS biases limited the effectiveness of a single data assimilation system for the entire continental domain. The best combinations of four settings and three averaging schemes led to a domain-averaged improvement in fractional error from 1.2 to 0.97 and from 0.99 to 0.89 at respective IMPROVE and STN monitoring sites. For 38% of OI results, MODIS OI degraded the forward model skill due to biases and outliers in MODIS AOD. Surface data assimilation combined 36 × 36 km aerosol concentrations from the CMAQ model with surface PM2.5 measurements over the continental United States for 2002. The model error covariance matrix was constructed by using the observational method. The observation error covariance matrix included site representation that scaled the observation error by land use (i.e. urban or rural locations). In theory, urban locations should have less effect on surrounding areas than rural sites, which can be controlled using site representation error. The annual evaluations showed substantial improvements in model performance with increases in the correlation coefficient from 0.36 (prior) to 0.76 (posterior), and decreases in the fractional error from 0.43 (prior) to 0.15 (posterior). In addition, the normalized mean error decreased from 0.36 (prior) to 0.13 (posterior), and the RMSE decreased from 5.39 µg m-3 (prior) to 2.32 µg m-3 (posterior). OI decreased model bias for both large spatial areas and point locations, and could be extended to more advanced data assimilation methods. The current work will be applied to a five year (2000-2004) CMAQ simulation aimed at improving aerosol model estimates. The posterior model concentrations will be used to inform exposure studies over the U.S. that relate aerosol exposure to mortality and morbidity rates. Future improvements for the OI techniques used in the current study will include combining both surface and satellite data to improve posterior model estimates. Satellite data have high spatial and temporal resolutions in comparison to surface measurements, which are scarce but more accurate than model estimates. The satellite data are subject to noise affected by location and season of retrieval. The implementation of OI to combine satellite and surface data sets has the potential to improve posterior model estimates for locations that have no direct measurements.

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics.

PubMed

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Rey-Bellet, Luc

2016-03-14

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc

2016-03-01

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc

2016-03-14

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systemsmore » with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.« less

Monitoring of Batch Industrial Crystallization with Growth, Nucleation, and Agglomeration. Part 2: Structure Design for State Estimation with Secondary Measurements

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This work investigates the design of alternative monitoring tools based on state estimators for industrial crystallization systems with nucleation, growth, and agglomeration kinetics. The estimation problem is regarded as a structure design problem where the estimation model and the set of innovated states have to be chosen; the estimator is driven by the available measurements of secondary variables. On the basis of Robust Exponential estimability arguments, it is found that the concentration is distinguishable with temperature and solid fraction measurements while the crystal size distribution (CSD) is not. Accordingly, a state estimator structure is selected such that (i) the concentration (and other distinguishable states) are innovated by means of the secondary measurements processed with the geometric estimator (GE), and (ii) the CSD is estimated by means of a rigorous model in open loop mode. The proposed estimator has been tested through simulations showing good performance in the case of mismatch in the initial conditions, parametric plant-model mismatch, and noisy measurements. PMID:28890604

Monitoring of Batch Industrial Crystallization with Growth, Nucleation, and Agglomeration. Part 2: Structure Design for State Estimation with Secondary Measurements.

PubMed

Porru, Marcella; Özkan, Leyla

2017-08-30

This work investigates the design of alternative monitoring tools based on state estimators for industrial crystallization systems with nucleation, growth, and agglomeration kinetics. The estimation problem is regarded as a structure design problem where the estimation model and the set of innovated states have to be chosen; the estimator is driven by the available measurements of secondary variables. On the basis of Robust Exponential estimability arguments, it is found that the concentration is distinguishable with temperature and solid fraction measurements while the crystal size distribution (CSD) is not. Accordingly, a state estimator structure is selected such that (i) the concentration (and other distinguishable states) are innovated by means of the secondary measurements processed with the geometric estimator (GE), and (ii) the CSD is estimated by means of a rigorous model in open loop mode. The proposed estimator has been tested through simulations showing good performance in the case of mismatch in the initial conditions, parametric plant-model mismatch, and noisy measurements.

Energy resources of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theobald, P.K.; Schweinfurth, Stanley P.; Duncan, Donald Cave

1972-01-01

Estimates are made of United States resources of coal, petroleum liquids, natural gas, uranium, geothermal energy, and oil from oil shale. The estimates, compiled by specialists of the U.S. Geological Survey, are generally made on geologic projections of favorable rocks and on anticipated frequency of the energy resource in the favorable rocks. Accuracy of the estimates probably ranges from 20 to 50 percent for identified-recoverable resources to about an order of magnitude for undiscovered-submarginal resources. The total coal resource base in the United States is estimated to be about 3,200 billion tons, of which 200-390 billion tons can be considered in the category identified and recoverable. More than 70 percent of current production comes from the Appalachian basin where the resource base, better known than for the United States as a whole, is about 330 billion tons, of which 22 billion tons is identified and recoverable. Coals containing less than 1 percent sulfur are the premium coals. These are abundant in the western coal fields, but in the Appalachian basin the resource base for low-sulfur coal is estimated to be only a little more than 100 billion tons, of which 12 billion tons is identified and recoverable. Of the many estimates of petroleum liquids and natural-gas resources, those of the U.S. Geological Survey are the largest because, in general, our estimates include the largest proportion of favorable ground for exploration. We estimate the total resource base for petroleum liquids to be about 2,900 billion barrels, of which 52 billion barrels is identified and recoverable. Of the total resource base, some 600 billion barrels is in Alaska or offshore from Alaska, 1,500 billion barrels is offshore from the United States, and 1,300 billion barrels is onshore in the conterminous United States. Identified-recoverable resources of petroleum liquids corresponding to these geographic units are 11, 6, and 36 billion barrels, respectively. The total natural-gas resource of the United States is estimated to be about 6,600 trillion cubic feet, of which 290 trillion cubic feet is identified and recoverable. In geographic units comparable to those for petroleum liquids, the resource bases are 1,400, 3,400, and 2,900 trillion cubic feet, and the identified-recoverable resources are 31, 40, and 220 trillion cubic feet, respectively. Uranium resources in conventional deposits, where uranium is the major product, are estimated at 1,600,000 tons of U3O8, of which 250,000 tons is identified and recoverable. A potential byproduct resource of more than 7 million tons of U3O8, is estimated for phosphate rock, but none of this resource is recoverable under present economic conditions. The resources of heat in potential geothermal energy sources are poorly known. The total resource base for the United States is certainly greater than 10 22 calories, of which only 2.5 ? 10 18 calories can be considered identified and recoverable at present. Oil shale is estimated to contain 26 trillion barrels of oil. None of this resource is economic at present, but if prices increase moderately, 160-600 billion barrels of this oil could be shifted into the identified-recoverable category.

Biological and ecological science for Michigan—The Great Lakes State

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2018-04-04

Michigan is rich in lakes, rivers, dune and rocky shorelines, forests, fish and wildlife, and has the longest freshwater coastline in the United States, 3,224 miles. Many enterprises critical to Michigan’s economy and cultural heritage are based on natural resources including commercial and sport fishing, hunting, and other outdoor recreation. Overall, outdoor recreation is enjoyed by more than 63 percent of Michigan residents, and has been estimated to generate $18.7 billion in consumer spending, create 194,000 jobs, and raise $1.4 billion in State and local tax revenue annually.

Cloud cover and solar disk state estimation using all-sky images: deep neural networks approach compared to routine methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krinitskiy, Mikhail; Sinitsyn, Alexey

2017-04-01

Shortwave radiation is an important component of surface heat budget over sea and land. To estimate them accurate observations of cloud conditions are needed including total cloud cover, spatial and temporal cloud structure. While massively observed visually, for building accurate SW radiation parameterizations cloud structure needs also to be quantified using precise instrumental measurements. While there already exist several state of the art land-based cloud-cameras that satisfy researchers needs, their major disadvantages are associated with inaccuracy of all-sky images processing algorithms which typically result in the uncertainties of 2-4 octa of cloud cover estimates with the resulting true-scoring cloud cover accuracy of about 7%. Moreover, none of these algorithms determine cloud types. We developed an approach for cloud cover and structure estimating, which provides much more accurate estimates and also allows for measuring additional characteristics. This method is based on the synthetic controlling index, namely the "grayness rate index", that we introduced in 2014. Since then this index has already demonstrated high efficiency being used along with the technique namely the "background sunburn effect suppression", to detect thin clouds. This made it possible to significantly increase the accuracy of total cloud cover estimation in various sky image states using this extension of routine algorithm type. Errors for the cloud cover estimates significantly decreased down resulting the mean squared error of about 1.5 octa. Resulting true-scoring accuracy is more than 38%. The main source of this approach uncertainties is the solar disk state determination errors. While the deep neural networks approach lets us to estimate solar disk state with 94% accuracy, the final result of total cloud estimation still isn`t satisfying. To solve this problem completely we applied the set of machine learning algorithms to the problem of total cloud cover estimation directly. The accuracy of this approach varies depending on algorithm choice. Deep neural networks demonstrated the best accuracy of more than 96%. We will demonstrate some approaches and the most influential statistical features of all-sky images that lets the algorithm reach that high accuracy. With the use of our new optical package a set of over 480`000 samples has been collected in several sea missions in 2014-2016 along with concurrent standard human observed and instrumentally recorded meteorological parameters. We will demonstrate the results of the field measurements and will discuss some still remaining problems and the potential of the further developments of machine learning approach.

Tourism values for Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) viewing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Widerholdt, Ruscena

2013-01-01

Migratory species provide diverse ecosystem services to people, but these values have seldom been estimated rangewide for a single species. In this article, we summarize visitation and consumer surplus for recreational visitors to viewing sites for the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) throughout the Southwestern United States. Public bat viewing opportunities are available at 17 of 25 major roosts across six states; on an annual basis, we estimate that over 242,000 visitors view bats, gaining over $6.5 million in consumer surplus. A better understanding of spatial mismatches between the areas where bats provide value to people and areas most critical for maintaining migratory populations can better inform conservation planning, including economic incentive systems for conservation.

Lead recycling in the United States in 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Gerald R.

2002-01-01

This materials flow study includes a description of lead supply and demand factors for the United States to illustrate the extent of lead recycling and to identify recycling trends. Understanding the system of materials flow from source to ultimate disposition can assist in improving the management of the use of natural resources in a manner that is compatible with sound environmental practices. The quantity of lead recycled in 1998, as a percentage of apparent lead supply, was estimated to be about 63 percent, and recycling efficiency, to be 95 percent. Of the total lead consumed in products for the U.S. market in 1998, an estimated 10 percent was consumed in products in which the lead was not readily recyclable.

Estimating reach-specific fish movement probabilities in rivers with a Bayesian state-space model: application to sea lamprey passage and capture at dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Johnson, Nicholas S.; Steibel, Juan P.; Twohey, Michael B.; Binder, Thomas R.; Krueger, Charles C.; Jones, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Improved methods are needed to evaluate barriers and traps for control and assessment of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes. A Bayesian state-space model provided reach-specific probabilities of movement, including trap capture and dam passage, for 148 acoustic tagged invasive sea lamprey in the lower Cheboygan River, Michigan, a tributary to Lake Huron. Reach-specific movement probabilities were combined to obtain estimates of spatial distribution and abundance needed to evaluate a barrier and trap complex for sea lamprey control and assessment. Of an estimated 21 828 – 29 300 adult sea lampreys in the river, 0%–2%, or 0–514 untagged lampreys, could have passed upstream of the dam, and 46%–61% were caught in the trap. Although no tagged lampreys passed above the dam (0/148), our sample size was not sufficient to consider the lock and dam a complete barrier to sea lamprey. Results also showed that existing traps are in good locations because 83%–96% of the population was vulnerable to existing traps. However, only 52%–69% of lampreys vulnerable to traps were caught, suggesting that traps can be improved. The approach used in this study was a novel use of Bayesian state-space models that may have broader applications, including evaluation of barriers for other invasive species (e.g., Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.)) and fish passage structures for other diadromous fishes.

Forest biomass and energy-wood potential in the southern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saucier, J.R.

1993-12-31

Timber resource data were compiled from the most recent USDA Forest Service inventory data for the 12 Southern States from Virginia to Texas. Timber resource inventories traditionally include only trees 5 inches dbh and greater and their volumes to the prevailing merchantable top diameter expressed in cubic feet, board feet, or cords. For this paper, conversion factors were developed to express timber inventories in weight and to expand the inventories to include the crowns of merchantable trees and trees less than 5 inches dbh. By so doing, the total aboveground biomass is estimated for the timberlands in the South. Themore » region contains 185 million acres of timberland. Some 14.6 billion green tons of woody biomass are present on southern timberland -- about 79 tons per acre. When mature stands are harvested, the average acre in the South has 22.2 tons of woody material left in crowns and sapling, and 5.1 tons in cull stems. Thus, an average of 27.3 green tons per acre of potential energy wood are left after conventional harvests. Conversion factors that are presented permit estimates for specific tracts, areas, counties, or states.« less

Mapping the Prevalence of Physical Inactivity in U.S. States, 1984-2015.

PubMed

An, Ruopeng; Xiang, Xiaoling; Yang, Yan; Yan, Hai

2016-01-01

Physical inactivity is a leading cause of morbidity, disability and premature mortality in the U.S. and worldwide. This study aimed to map the prevalence of physical inactivity across U.S. states over the past three decades, and estimate the over-time adjusted changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity in each state. Individual-level data (N = 6,701,954) were taken from the 1984-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), an annually repeated cross-sectional survey of state-representative adult population. Prevalence of self-reported leisure-time physical inactivity was estimated by state and survey year, accounting for the BRFSS sampling design. Logistic regressions were performed to estimate the changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity over the study period for each state, adjusting for individual characteristics including sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, and employment status. The prevalence of leisure-time physical inactivity varied substantially across states and survey years. In general, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity gradually declined over the past three decades in a majority of states. However, a substantial proportion of American adults remain physically inactive. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, 45 had over a fifth of their adult population without any leisure-time physical activity, and 8 had over 30% without physical activity in 2015. Moreover, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity in several states (Arizona, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming) remained largely unchanged or even increased (Minnesota and Ohio) over the study period. Although the prevalence of physical inactivity declined over the past three decades in a majority of states, the rates remain substantially high and vary considerably across states. Closely monitoring and tracking physical activity level using the state physical activity maps can help guide policy and program development to promote physical activity and reduce the burden of chronic disease.

Mapping the Prevalence of Physical Inactivity in U.S. States, 1984-2015

PubMed Central

Xiang, Xiaoling; Yang, Yan; Yan, Hai

2016-01-01

Background Physical inactivity is a leading cause of morbidity, disability and premature mortality in the U.S. and worldwide. This study aimed to map the prevalence of physical inactivity across U.S. states over the past three decades, and estimate the over-time adjusted changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity in each state. Methods Individual-level data (N = 6,701,954) were taken from the 1984–2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), an annually repeated cross-sectional survey of state-representative adult population. Prevalence of self-reported leisure-time physical inactivity was estimated by state and survey year, accounting for the BRFSS sampling design. Logistic regressions were performed to estimate the changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity over the study period for each state, adjusting for individual characteristics including sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, and employment status. Results The prevalence of leisure-time physical inactivity varied substantially across states and survey years. In general, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity gradually declined over the past three decades in a majority of states. However, a substantial proportion of American adults remain physically inactive. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, 45 had over a fifth of their adult population without any leisure-time physical activity, and 8 had over 30% without physical activity in 2015. Moreover, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity in several states (Arizona, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming) remained largely unchanged or even increased (Minnesota and Ohio) over the study period. Conclusions Although the prevalence of physical inactivity declined over the past three decades in a majority of states, the rates remain substantially high and vary considerably across states. Closely monitoring and tracking physical activity level using the state physical activity maps can help guide policy and program development to promote physical activity and reduce the burden of chronic disease. PMID:27959906

China Report, RED FLAG No. 1, 1 January 1983

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-03-17

River and the foothills of Jinggang Mountains, or the banks of Ganjiang River and the Wuyi Mountains, there are mementos of the glorious achievements of...739 production teams and 1 tin factory. Along with banks , food companies, veterinary stations and the foreign trade department, they have also signed...are included in state estimates, are privately and individually raised funds or bank loans, must all be entered into the unified state plans and may

Estimated Incidence of Antimicrobial Drug–Resistant Nontyphoidal Salmonella Infections, United States, 2004–2012

PubMed Central

Gu, Weidong; Mahon, Barbara E.; Judd, Michael; Folster, Jason; Griffin, Patricia M.; Hoekstra, Robert M.

2017-01-01

Salmonella infections are a major cause of illness in the United States. The antimicrobial agents used to treat severe infections include ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, and ampicillin. Antimicrobial drug resistance has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. To estimate the incidence of resistant culture-confirmed nontyphoidal Salmonella infections, we used Bayesian hierarchical models of 2004–2012 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System and Laboratory-based Enteric Disease Surveillance. We based 3 mutually exclusive resistance categories on susceptibility testing: ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistant, ciprofloxacin nonsusceptible but ceftriaxone susceptible, and ampicillin resistant but ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin susceptible. We estimated the overall incidence of resistant infections as 1.07/100,000 person-years for ampicillin-only resistance, 0.51/100,000 person-years for ceftriaxone and ampicillin resistance, and 0.35/100,000 person-years for ciprofloxacin nonsusceptibility, or ≈6,200 resistant culture-confirmed infections annually. These national estimates help define the magnitude of the resistance problem so that control measures can be appropriately targeted. PMID:27983506

Sliding Mode Approaches for Robust Control, State Estimation, Secure Communication, and Fault Diagnosis in Nuclear Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablay, Gunyaz

Using traditional control methods for controller design, parameter estimation and fault diagnosis may lead to poor results with nuclear systems in practice because of approximations and uncertainties in the system models used, possibly resulting in unexpected plant unavailability. This experience has led to an interest in development of robust control, estimation and fault diagnosis methods. One particularly robust approach is the sliding mode control methodology. Sliding mode approaches have been of great interest and importance in industry and engineering in the recent decades due to their potential for producing economic, safe and reliable designs. In order to utilize these advantages, sliding mode approaches are implemented for robust control, state estimation, secure communication and fault diagnosis in nuclear plant systems. In addition, a sliding mode output observer is developed for fault diagnosis in dynamical systems. To validate the effectiveness of the methodologies, several nuclear plant system models are considered for applications, including point reactor kinetics, xenon concentration dynamics, an uncertain pressurizer model, a U-tube steam generator model and a coupled nonlinear nuclear reactor model.

Does extending health insurance coverage to the uninsured improve population health outcomes?

PubMed

Thornton, James A; Rice, Jennifer L

2008-01-01

An ongoing debate exists about whether the US should adopt a universal health insurance programme. Much of the debate has focused on programme implementation and cost, with relatively little attention to benefits for social welfare. To estimate the effect on US population health outcomes, measured by mortality, of extending private health insurance to the uninsured, and to obtain a rough estimate of the aggregate economic benefits of extending insurance coverage to the uninsured. We use state-level panel data for all 50 states for the period 1990-2000 to estimate a health insurance augmented, aggregate health production function for the US. An instrumental variables fixed-effects estimator is used to account for confounding variables and reverse causation from health status to insurance coverage. Several observed factors, such as income, education, unemployment, cigarette and alcohol consumption and population demographic characteristics are included to control for potential confounding variables that vary across both states and time. The results indicate a negative relationship between private insurance and mortality, thus suggesting that extending insurance to the uninsured population would result in an improvement in population health outcomes. The estimate of the marginal effect of insurance coverage indicates that a 10% increase in the population-insured rate of a state reduces mortality by 1.69-1.92%. Using data for the year 2003, we calculate that extending private insurance coverage to the entire uninsured population in the US would save over 75 000 lives annually and may yield annual net benefits to the nation in excess of $US400 billion. This analysis suggests that extending health insurance coverage through the private market to the 46 million Americans without health insurance may well produce large social economic benefits for the nation as a whole.

Oral Health Disparities as Determined by Selected Healthy People 2020 Oral Health Objectives for the United States, ...

MedlinePlus

... status of the civilian noninstitutionalized U.S. population. The survey consists of interviews conducted in participants' homes and standardized physical examinations in mobile examination centers. The sample design includes oversampling to obtain reliable estimates of health ...

Vietnamese Victims of Agent Orange and U.S.-Vietnam Relations

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-21

several companies, including Diamond Shamrock Corporation, Dow Chemical Company, Hercules Inc., Monsanto Company, T-H Agricultural & Nutrition Company...Victims Sue Monsanto ,” Corpwatch, November 4, 2004. For comparison, the U.S. State Department estimates that Vietnam’s per capita GDP in 2007 was

Early Teen Marriage and Future Poverty

PubMed Central

DAHL, GORDON B.

2010-01-01

Both early teen marriage and dropping out of high school have historically been associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including higher poverty rates throughout life. Are these negative outcomes due to preexisting differences, or do they represent the causal effect of marriage and schooling choices? To better understand the true personal and societal consequences, in this article, I use an instrumental variables (IV) approach that takes advantage of variation in state laws regulating the age at which individuals are allowed to marry, drop out of school, and begin work. The baseline IV estimate indicates that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be poor. The results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. While grouped ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates for the early teen marriage variable are also large, OLS estimates based on individual-level data are small, consistent with a large amount of measurement error. PMID:20879684

Early teen marriage and future poverty.

PubMed

Dahl, Gordon B

2010-08-01

Both early teen marriage and dropping out of high school have historically been associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including higher poverty rates throughout life. Are these negative outcomes due to preexisting differences, or do they represent the causal effect of marriage and schooling choices? To better understand the true personal and societal consequences, in this article, I use an instrumental variables (IV) approach that takes advantage of variation in state laws regulating the age at which individuals are allowed to marry, drop out of school, and begin work. The baseline IV estimate indicates that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be poor. The results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. While grouped ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates for the early teen marriage variable are also large, OLS estimates based on individual-level data are small, consistent with a large amount of measurement error

High risk of tsunami in the northern Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grindlay, Nancy R.; Hearne, Meghan; Mann, Paul

The magnitude Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 claimed the lives of an estimated 300,000 people living in coastal areas of seven different countries around the Indian Ocean. This event raised the question of whether similar far-traveled tsunamis generated by plate boundary faulting could affect the estimated 150 million people living in coastal areas of the United States, including Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.Aside from the Pacific plate margin of North America, the North America-Caribbean plate boundary is the closest (˜2000 km) active plate boundary to coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. Atlantic seaboard. Researchers also have proposed that other possible tsunami-generating sources that could affect coastal areas of the United States include slumping of the shelf margin along the Virginia-North Carolina margin [Driscoll et al., 2000] and slumping of volcanic edifices in the Canary Islands [Ward and Day, 2001].

Estimating the Net Economic Value of National Forest Recreation: An Application of the National Visitor Use Monitoring Database

Treesearch

J.M. Bowker; C.M. Starbuck; D.B.K. English; J.C. Bergstrom; R.S. Rosenburger; D.C. McCollum

2009-01-01

The USDA Forest Service (FS) manages 193 million acres of public land in the United States. These public resources include vast quantities of natural resources including timber, wildlife, watersheds, air sheds, and ecosystems. The Forest Service was established in 1905, and the FS has been directed by Congress to manage the National Forests and Grasslands for the...

Evaluation of gravimetric techniques to estimate the microvascular filtration coefficient

PubMed Central

Dongaonkar, R. M.; Laine, G. A.; Stewart, R. H.

2011-01-01

Microvascular permeability to water is characterized by the microvascular filtration coefficient (Kf). Conventional gravimetric techniques to estimate Kf rely on data obtained from either transient or steady-state increases in organ weight in response to increases in microvascular pressure. Both techniques result in considerably different estimates and neither account for interstitial fluid storage and lymphatic return. We therefore developed a theoretical framework to evaluate Kf estimation techniques by 1) comparing conventional techniques to a novel technique that includes effects of interstitial fluid storage and lymphatic return, 2) evaluating the ability of conventional techniques to reproduce Kf from simulated gravimetric data generated by a realistic interstitial fluid balance model, 3) analyzing new data collected from rat intestine, and 4) analyzing previously reported data. These approaches revealed that the steady-state gravimetric technique yields estimates that are not directly related to Kf and are in some cases directly proportional to interstitial compliance. However, the transient gravimetric technique yields accurate estimates in some organs, because the typical experimental duration minimizes the effects of interstitial fluid storage and lymphatic return. Furthermore, our analytical framework reveals that the supposed requirement of tying off all draining lymphatic vessels for the transient technique is unnecessary. Finally, our numerical simulations indicate that our comprehensive technique accurately reproduces the value of Kf in all organs, is not confounded by interstitial storage and lymphatic return, and provides corroboration of the estimate from the transient technique. PMID:21346245

Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation using Bayesian Model Averaging and Generalized Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T.; Li, X.

2006-12-01

Non-uniqueness in parameterization scheme is an inherent problem in groundwater inverse modeling due to limited data. To cope with the non-uniqueness problem of parameterization, we introduce a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to integrate a set of selected parameterization methods. The estimation uncertainty in BMA includes the uncertainty in individual parameterization methods as the within-parameterization variance and the uncertainty from using different parameterization methods as the between-parameterization variance. Moreover, the generalized parameterization (GP) method is considered in the geostatistical framework in this study. The GP method aims at increasing the flexibility of parameterization through the combination of a zonation structure and an interpolation method. The use of BMP with GP avoids over-confidence in a single parameterization method. A normalized least-squares estimation (NLSE) is adopted to calculate the posterior probability for each GP. We employee the adjoint state method for the sensitivity analysis on the weighting coefficients in the GP method. The adjoint state method is also applied to the NLSE problem. The proposed methodology is implemented to the Alamitos Barrier Project (ABP) in California, where the spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity is estimated. The optimal weighting coefficients embedded in GP are identified through the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) where the misfits between the observed and calculated groundwater heads are minimized. The conditional mean and conditional variance of the estimated hydraulic conductivity distribution using BMA are obtained to assess the estimation uncertainty.

Cancer Burden in the HIV-Infected Population in the United States

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Hall, H. Irene; Chaturvedi, Anil K.; Bhatia, Kishor; Uldrick, Thomas S.; Yarchoan, Robert; Goedert, James J.; Engels, Eric A.

2011-01-01

Background Effective antiretroviral therapy has reduced the risk of AIDS and dramatically prolonged the survival of HIV-infected people in the United States. Consequently, an increasing number of HIV-infected people are at risk of non-AIDS-defining cancers that typically occur at older ages. We estimated the annual number of cancers in the HIV-infected population, both with and without AIDS, in the United States. Methods Incidence rates for individual cancer types were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study by linking 15 HIV and cancer registries in the United States. Estimated counts of the US HIV-infected and AIDS populations were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data. We obtained estimated counts of AIDS-defining (ie, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer) and non-AIDS-defining cancers in the US AIDS population during 1991–2005 by multiplying cancer incidence rates and AIDS population counts, stratified by year, age, sex, race and ethnicity, transmission category, and AIDS-relative time. We tested trends in counts and standardized incidence rates using linear regression models. We multiplied overall cancer rates and HIV-only (HIV infected, without AIDS) population counts, available from 34 US states during 2004–2007, to estimate cancers in the HIV-only population. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results The US AIDS population expanded fourfold from 1991 to 2005 (96 179 to 413 080) largely because of an increase in the number of people aged 40 years or older. During 1991–2005, an estimated 79 656 cancers occurred in the AIDS population. From 1991–1995 to 2001–2005, the estimated number of AIDS-defining cancers decreased by greater than threefold (34 587 to 10 325 cancers; Ptrend < .001), whereas non-AIDS-defining cancers increased by approximately threefold (3193 to 10 059 cancers; Ptrend < .001). From 1991–1995 to 2001–2005, estimated counts increased for anal (206 to 1564 cancers), liver (116 to 583 cancers), prostate (87 to 759 cancers), and lung cancers (875 to 1882 cancers), and Hodgkin lymphoma (426 to 897 cancers). In the HIV-only population in 34 US states, an estimated 2191 non-AIDS-defining cancers occurred during 2004–2007, including 454 lung, 166 breast, and 154 anal cancers. Conclusions Over a 15-year period (1991–2005), increases in non-AIDS-defining cancers were mainly driven by growth and aging of the AIDS population. This growing burden requires targeted cancer prevention and treatment strategies. PMID:21483021

Metal-organic complexes in geochemical processes: Estimation of standard partial molal thermodynamic properties of aqueous complexes between metal cations and monovalent organic acid ligands at high pressures and temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shock, Everetr L.; Koretsky, Carla M.

1995-04-01

Regression of standard state equilibrium constants with the revised Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers (HKF) equation of state allows evaluation of standard partial molal entropies ( overlineSo) of aqueous metal-organic complexes involving monovalent organic acid ligands. These values of overlineSo provide the basis for correlations that can be used, together with correlation algorithms among standard partial molal properties of aqueous complexes and equation-of-state parameters, to estimate thermodynamic properties including equilibrium constants for complexes between aqueous metals and several monovalent organic acid ligands at the elevated pressures and temperatures of many geochemical processes which involve aqueous solutions. Data, parameters, and estimates are given for 270 formate, propanoate, n-butanoate, n-pentanoate, glycolate, lactate, glycinate, and alanate complexes, and a consistent algorithm is provided for making other estimates. Standard partial molal entropies of association ( Δ -Sro) for metal-monovalent organic acid ligand complexes fall into at least two groups dependent upon the type of functional groups present in the ligand. It is shown that isothermal correlations among equilibrium constants for complex formation are consistent with one another and with similar correlations for inorganic metal-ligand complexes. Additional correlations allow estimates of standard partial molal Gibbs free energies of association at 25°C and 1 bar which can be used in cases where no experimentally derived values are available.

Bell nonlocality and fully entangled fraction measured in an entanglement-swapping device without quantum state tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartkiewicz, Karol; Lemr, Karel; Černoch, Antonín; Miranowicz, Adam

2017-03-01

We propose and experimentally implement an efficient procedure based on entanglement swapping to determine the Bell nonlocality measure of Horodecki et al. [Phys. Lett. A 200, 340 (1995), 10.1016/0375-9601(95)00214-N] and the fully entangled fraction of Bennett et al. [Phys. Rev. A 54, 3824 (1996), 10.1103/PhysRevA.54.3824] of an arbitrary two-qubit polarization-encoded state. The nonlocality measure corresponds to the amount of the violation of the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) optimized over all measurement settings. By using simultaneously two copies of a given state, we measure directly only six parameters. This is an experimental determination of these quantities without quantum state tomography or continuous monitoring of all measurement bases in the usual CHSH inequality tests. We analyze how well the measured degrees of Bell nonlocality and other entanglement witnesses (including the fully entangled fraction and a nonlinear entropic witness) of an arbitrary two-qubit state can estimate its entanglement. In particular, we measure these witnesses and estimate the negativity of various two-qubit Werner states. Our approach could especially be useful for quantum communication protocols based on entanglement swapping.

Signal Conditioning for the Kalman Filter: Application to Satellite Attitude Estimation with Magnetometer and Sun Sensors

PubMed Central

Esteban, Segundo; Girón-Sierra, Jose M.; Polo, Óscar R.; Angulo, Manuel

2016-01-01

Most satellites use an on-board attitude estimation system, based on available sensors. In the case of low-cost satellites, which are of increasing interest, it is usual to use magnetometers and Sun sensors. A Kalman filter is commonly recommended for the estimation, to simultaneously exploit the information from sensors and from a mathematical model of the satellite motion. It would be also convenient to adhere to a quaternion representation. This article focuses on some problems linked to this context. The state of the system should be represented in observable form. Singularities due to alignment of measured vectors cause estimation problems. Accommodation of the Kalman filter originates convergence difficulties. The article includes a new proposal that solves these problems, not needing changes in the Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, the article includes assessment of different errors, initialization values for the Kalman filter; and considers the influence of the magnetic dipole moment perturbation, showing how to handle it as part of the Kalman filter framework. PMID:27809250

Signal Conditioning for the Kalman Filter: Application to Satellite Attitude Estimation with Magnetometer and Sun Sensors.

PubMed

Esteban, Segundo; Girón-Sierra, Jose M; Polo, Óscar R; Angulo, Manuel

2016-10-31

Most satellites use an on-board attitude estimation system, based on available sensors. In the case of low-cost satellites, which are of increasing interest, it is usual to use magnetometers and Sun sensors. A Kalman filter is commonly recommended for the estimation, to simultaneously exploit the information from sensors and from a mathematical model of the satellite motion. It would be also convenient to adhere to a quaternion representation. This article focuses on some problems linked to this context. The state of the system should be represented in observable form. Singularities due to alignment of measured vectors cause estimation problems. Accommodation of the Kalman filter originates convergence difficulties. The article includes a new proposal that solves these problems, not needing changes in the Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, the article includes assessment of different errors, initialization values for the Kalman filter; and considers the influence of the magnetic dipole moment perturbation, showing how to handle it as part of the Kalman filter framework.

Population-based cancer survival in the United States: Data, quality control, and statistical methods.

PubMed

Allemani, Claudia; Harewood, Rhea; Johnson, Christopher J; Carreira, Helena; Spika, Devon; Bonaventure, Audrey; Ward, Kevin; Weir, Hannah K; Coleman, Michel P

2017-12-15

Robust comparisons of population-based cancer survival estimates require tight adherence to the study protocol, standardized quality control, appropriate life tables of background mortality, and centralized analysis. The CONCORD program established worldwide surveillance of population-based cancer survival in 2015, analyzing individual data on 26 million patients (including 10 million US patients) diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 with 1 of 10 common malignancies. In this Cancer supplement, we analyzed data from 37 state cancer registries that participated in the second cycle of the CONCORD program (CONCORD-2), covering approximately 80% of the US population. Data quality checks were performed in 3 consecutive phases: protocol adherence, exclusions, and editorial checks. One-, 3-, and 5-year age-standardized net survival was estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator and state- and race-specific life tables of all-cause mortality for each year. The cohort approach was adopted for patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2003, and the complete approach for patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2009. Articles in this supplement report population coverage, data quality indicators, and age-standardized 5-year net survival by state, race, and stage at diagnosis. Examples of tables, bar charts, and funnel plots are provided in this article. Population-based cancer survival is a key measure of the overall effectiveness of services in providing equitable health care. The high quality of US cancer registry data, 80% population coverage, and use of an unbiased net survival estimator ensure that the survival trends reported in this supplement are robustly comparable by race and state. The results can be used by policymakers to identify and address inequities in cancer survival in each state and for the United States nationally. Cancer 2017;123:4982-93. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Prevalence of Prostate Cancer Clinical States and Mortality in the United States: Estimates Using a Dynamic Progression Model

PubMed Central

Scher, Howard I.; Solo, Kirk; Valant, Jason; Todd, Mary B.; Mehra, Maneesha

2015-01-01

Objective To identify patient populations most in need of treatment across the prostate cancer disease continuum, we developed a novel dynamic transition model based on risk of disease progression and mortality. Design and Outcome Measurements We modeled the flow of patient populations through eight prostate cancer clinical states (PCCS) that are characterized by the status of the primary tumor, presence of metastases, prior and current treatment, and testosterone levels. Simulations used published US incidence rates for each year from 1990. Progression and mortality rates were derived from published clinical trials, meta-analyses, and observational studies. Model outputs included the incidence, prevalence, and mortality for each PCCS. The impact of novel treatments was modeled in three distinct scenarios: metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), non-metastatic CRPC (nmCRPC), or both. Results and Limitations The model estimated the prevalence of prostate cancer as 2,219,280 in the US in 2009 and 3,072,480 in 2020, and incidence of mCRPC as 36,100 and 42,970, respectively. All-cause mortality in prostate cancer was estimated at 168,290 in 2009 and 219,360 in 2020, with 20.5% and 19.5% of these deaths, respectively, occurring in men with mCRPC. The majority (86%) of incidence flow into mCRPC states was from the nmCRPC clinical state. In the scenario with novel interventions for nmCRPC states, the progression to mCRPC is reduced, thus decreasing mCRPC incidence by 12% in 2020, with a sustained decline in mCRPC mortality. A limitation of the model is that it does not estimate prostate cancer—specific mortality. Conclusion The model informs clinical trial design for prostate cancer by quantifying outcomes in PCCS, and demonstrates the impact of an effective therapy applied in an earlier clinical state of nmCRPC on the incidence of mCRPC morbidity and subsequent mortality. PMID:26460686

Air quality impacts of projections of natural gas-fired distributed generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Jeremy R.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Lemar, Paul; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg; Young, David; Shaw, Stephanie L.; Knipping, Eladio M.

2017-11-01

This study assesses the potential impacts on emissions and air quality from the increased adoption of natural gas-fired distributed generation of electricity (DG), including displacement of power from central power generation, in the contiguous United States. The study includes four major tasks: (1) modeling of distributed generation market penetration; (2) modeling of central power generation systems; (3) modeling of spatially and temporally resolved emissions; and (4) photochemical grid modeling to evaluate the potential air quality impacts of increased DG penetration, which includes both power-only DG and combined heat and power (CHP) units, for 2030. Low and high DG penetration scenarios estimate the largest penetration of future DG units in three regions - New England, New York, and California. Projections of DG penetration in the contiguous United States estimate 6.3 GW and 24 GW of market adoption in 2030 for the low DG penetration and high DG penetration scenarios, respectively. High DG penetration (all of which is natural gas-fired) serves to offset 8 GW of new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units, and 19 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2030. In all scenarios, air quality in the central United States and the northwest remains unaffected as there is little to no DG penetration in those states. California and several states in the northeast are the most impacted by emissions from DG units. Peak increases in maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations exceed 5 ppb, which may impede attainment of ambient air quality standards. Overall, air quality impacts from DG vary greatly based on meteorological conditions, proximity to emissions sources, the number and type of DG installations, and the emissions factors used for DG units.

Fast Component Pursuit for Large-Scale Inverse Covariance Estimation.

PubMed

Han, Lei; Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Tong

2016-08-01

The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the Gaussian graphical model, which is also known as the inverse covariance estimation problem, has gained increasing interest recently. Most existing works assume that inverse covariance estimators contain sparse structure and then construct models with the ℓ 1 regularization. In this paper, different from existing works, we study the inverse covariance estimation problem from another perspective by efficiently modeling the low-rank structure in the inverse covariance, which is assumed to be a combination of a low-rank part and a diagonal matrix. One motivation for this assumption is that the low-rank structure is common in many applications including the climate and financial analysis, and another one is that such assumption can reduce the computational complexity when computing its inverse. Specifically, we propose an efficient COmponent Pursuit (COP) method to obtain the low-rank part, where each component can be sparse. For optimization, the COP method greedily learns a rank-one component in each iteration by maximizing the log-likelihood. Moreover, the COP algorithm enjoys several appealing properties including the existence of an efficient solution in each iteration and the theoretical guarantee on the convergence of this greedy approach. Experiments on large-scale synthetic and real-world datasets including thousands of millions variables show that the COP method is faster than the state-of-the-art techniques for the inverse covariance estimation problem when achieving comparable log-likelihood on test data.

Joint state and parameter estimation of the hemodynamic model by particle smoother expectation maximization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslan, Serdar; Taylan Cemgil, Ali; Akın, Ata

2016-08-01

Objective. In this paper, we aimed for the robust estimation of the parameters and states of the hemodynamic model by using blood oxygen level dependent signal. Approach. In the fMRI literature, there are only a few successful methods that are able to make a joint estimation of the states and parameters of the hemodynamic model. In this paper, we implemented a maximum likelihood based method called the particle smoother expectation maximization (PSEM) algorithm for the joint state and parameter estimation. Main results. Former sequential Monte Carlo methods were only reliable in the hemodynamic state estimates. They were claimed to outperform the local linearization (LL) filter and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The PSEM algorithm is compared with the most successful method called square-root cubature Kalman smoother (SCKS) for both state and parameter estimation. SCKS was found to be better than the dynamic expectation maximization (DEM) algorithm, which was shown to be a better estimator than EKF, LL and particle filters. Significance. PSEM was more accurate than SCKS for both the state and the parameter estimation. Hence, PSEM seems to be the most accurate method for the system identification and state estimation for the hemodynamic model inversion literature. This paper do not compare its results with Tikhonov-regularized Newton—CKF (TNF-CKF), a recent robust method which works in filtering sense.

Using Landsat to provide potato production estimates to Columbia Basin farmers and processors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

A summary of project activities relative to the estimation of potato yields in the Columbia Basin is given. Oregon State University is using a two-pronged approach to yield estimation, one using simulation models and the other using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach has used satellite observations to determine key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Two empirical modeling approaches are illustrated. One relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation; the other relates tuber yield to the integral under the GVI curve.

Estimating model parameters for an impact-produced shock-wave simulation: Optimal use of partial data with the extended Kalman filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kao, Jim; Flicker, Dawn; Ide, Kayo

2006-05-20

This paper builds upon our recent data assimilation work with the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method [J. Kao, D. Flicker, R. Henninger, S. Frey, M. Ghil, K. Ide, Data assimilation with an extended Kalman filter for an impact-produced shock-wave study, J. Comp. Phys. 196 (2004) 705-723.]. The purpose is to test the capability of EKF in optimizing a model's physical parameters. The problem is to simulate the evolution of a shock produced through a high-speed flyer plate. In the earlier work, we have showed that the EKF allows one to estimate the evolving state of the shock wave from amore » single pressure measurement, assuming that all model parameters are known. In the present paper, we show that imperfectly known model parameters can also be estimated accordingly, along with the evolving model state, from the same single measurement. The model parameter optimization using the EKF can be achieved through a simple modification of the original EKF formalism by including the model parameters into an augmented state variable vector. While the regular state variables are governed by both deterministic and stochastic forcing mechanisms, the parameters are only subject to the latter. The optimally estimated model parameters are thus obtained through a unified assimilation operation. We show that improving the accuracy of the model parameters also improves the state estimate. The time variation of the optimized model parameters results from blending the data and the corresponding values generated from the model and lies within a small range, of less than 2%, from the parameter values of the original model. The solution computed with the optimized parameters performs considerably better and has a smaller total variance than its counterpart using the original time-constant parameters. These results indicate that the model parameters play a dominant role in the performance of the shock-wave hydrodynamic code at hand.« less

Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, J.

1995-01-01

This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are independently known, the timetag error for a single sensor can be accurately estimated as long as its boresight is not too close to the spacecraft rotation axis.

Fragment charge difference method for estimating donor-acceptor electronic coupling: Application to DNA π-stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voityuk, Alexander A.; Rösch, Notker

2002-09-01

The purpose of this communication is two-fold. We introduce the fragment charge difference (FCD) method to estimate the electron transfer matrix element HDA between a donor D and an acceptor A, and we apply this method to several aspects of hole transfer electronic couplings in π-stacks of DNA, including systems with several donor-acceptor sites. Within the two-state model, our scheme can be simplified to recover a convenient estimate of the electron transfer matrix element HDA=(1-Δq2)1/2(E2-E1)/2 based on the vertical excitation energy E2-E1 and the charge difference Δq between donor and acceptor. For systems with strong charge separation, Δq≳0.95, one should resort to the FCD method. As favorable feature, we demonstrate the stability of the FCD approach for systems which require an approach beyond the two-state model. On the basis of ab initio calculations of various DNA related systems, we compared three approaches for estimating the electronic coupling: the minimum splitting method, the generalized Mulliken-Hush (GMH) scheme, and the FCD approach. We studied the sensitivity of FCD and GMH couplings to the donor-acceptor energy gap and found both schemes to be quite robust; they are applicable also in cases where donor and acceptor states are off resonance. In the application to π-stacks of DNA, we demonstrated for the Watson-Crick pair dimer [(GC),(GC)] how structural changes considerably affect the coupling strength of electron hole transfer. For models of three Watson-Crick pairs, we showed that the two-state model significantly overestimates the hole transfer coupling whereas simultaneous treatment of several states leads to satisfactory results.

Deaths Involving Fentanyl, Fentanyl Analogs, and U-47700 - 10 States, July-December 2016.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Julie K; Halpin, John; Mattson, Christine L; Goldberger, Bruce A; Gladden, R Matthew

2017-11-03

Preliminary estimates of U.S. drug overdose deaths exceeded 60,000 in 2016 and were partially driven by a fivefold increase in overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids (excluding methadone), from 3,105 in 2013 to approximately 20,000 in 2016 (1,2). Illicitly manufactured fentanyl, a synthetic opioid 50-100 times more potent than morphine, is primarily responsible for this rapid increase (3,4). In addition, fentanyl analogs such as acetylfentanyl, furanylfentanyl, and carfentanil are being detected increasingly in overdose deaths (5,6) and the illicit opioid drug supply (7). Carfentanil is estimated to be 10,000 times more potent than morphine (8). Estimates of the potency of acetylfentanyl and furanylfentanyl vary but suggest that they are less potent than fentanyl (9). Estimates of relative potency have some uncertainty because illicit fentanyl analog potency has not been evaluated in humans. This report describes opioid overdose deaths during July-December 2016 that tested positive for fentanyl, fentanyl analogs, or U-47700, an illicit synthetic opioid, in 10 states participating in CDC's Enhanced State Opioid Overdose Surveillance (ESOOS) program.* Fentanyl analogs are similar in chemical structure to fentanyl but not routinely detected because specialized toxicology testing is required. Fentanyl was detected in at least half of opioid overdose deaths in seven of 10 states, and 57% of fentanyl-involved deaths also tested positive for other illicit drugs, such as heroin. Fentanyl analogs were present in >10% of opioid overdose deaths in four states, with carfentanil, furanylfentanyl, and acetylfentanyl identified most frequently. Expanded surveillance for opioid overdoses, including testing for fentanyl and fentanyl analogs, assists in tracking the rapidly changing illicit opioid market and informing innovative interventions designed to reduce opioid overdose deaths.

A unifying view of synchronization for data assimilation in complex nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Shirman, Sasha; Breen, Daniel; Kadakia, Nirag; Rey, Daniel; Armstrong, Eve; Margoliash, Daniel

2017-12-01

Networks of nonlinear systems contain unknown parameters and dynamical degrees of freedom that may not be observable with existing instruments. From observable state variables, we want to estimate the connectivity of a model of such a network and determine the full state of the model at the termination of a temporal observation window during which measurements transfer information to a model of the network. The model state at the termination of a measurement window acts as an initial condition for predicting the future behavior of the network. This allows the validation (or invalidation) of the model as a representation of the dynamical processes producing the observations. Once the model has been tested against new data, it may be utilized as a predictor of responses to innovative stimuli or forcing. We describe a general framework for the tasks involved in the "inverse" problem of determining properties of a model built to represent measured output from physical, biological, or other processes when the measurements are noisy, the model has errors, and the state of the model is unknown when measurements begin. This framework is called statistical data assimilation and is the best one can do in estimating model properties through the use of the conditional probability distributions of the model state variables, conditioned on observations. There is a very broad arena of applications of the methods described. These include numerical weather prediction, properties of nonlinear electrical circuitry, and determining the biophysical properties of functional networks of neurons. Illustrative examples will be given of (1) estimating the connectivity among neurons with known dynamics in a network of unknown connectivity, and (2) estimating the biophysical properties of individual neurons in vitro taken from a functional network underlying vocalization in songbirds.

Time course of the uridylylation and adenylylation states in the glutamine synthetase bicyclic cascade.

PubMed Central

Varón-Castellanos, R; Havsteen, B H; García-Moreno, M; Valero-Ruiz, E; Molina-Alarcón, M; García-Cánovas, F

1993-01-01

A kinetic analysis of the glutamine synthetase bicyclic cascade is presented. It includes the dependence on time from the onset of the reaction of both the uridylylation of Shapiro's regulatory protein and the adenylylation of the glutamine synthetase. The transient phase equations obtained allow an estimation of the time elapsed until the states of uridylylation and adenylylation reach their steady-states, and therefore an evaluation of the effective sensitivity of the system. The contribution of the uridylylation cycle to the adenylylation cycle has been studied, and an equation relating the state of adenylylation at any time to the state of uridylylation at the same instant has been derived. PMID:8104399

The Effect of Minimum Wages on Adolescent Fertility: A Nationwide Analysis.

PubMed

Bullinger, Lindsey Rose

2017-03-01

To investigate the effect of minimum wage laws on adolescent birth rates in the United States. I used a difference-in-differences approach and vital statistics data measured quarterly at the state level from 2003 to 2014. All models included state covariates, state and quarter-year fixed effects, and state-specific quarter-year nonlinear time trends, which provided plausibly causal estimates of the effect of minimum wage on adolescent birth rates. A $1 increase in minimum wage reduces adolescent birth rates by about 2%. The effects are driven by non-Hispanic White and Hispanic adolescents. Nationwide, increasing minimum wages by $1 would likely result in roughly 5000 fewer adolescent births annually.

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2011-01-01

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the un-certainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Medical Assisting Learning Guides.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Rose

Eight student learning guides are provided for a medical assisting program at the secondary, postsecondary, or adult level. Each learning guide is composed of these component parts: a title page that states the task, purpose, program and task numbers, estimated time, and prerequisites; an optional learning contract that includes terminal…

48 CFR 252.215-7002 - Cost estimating system requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... costs and other data included in proposals submitted to customers in the expectation of receiving... lines of authority, duties, and responsibilities; (3) Internal controls and managerial reviews; (4) Flow... Contractor shall, within 30 days, state its rationale for disagreeing. (2) The ACO will evaluate the...

Minnesota's forest resources in 2004

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles; Gary J. Brand; Manfred E. Mielke

2006-01-01

This report presents forest statistics based on the five annual inventory panels measured from 2000 through 2004. Forest area is estimated at 16.2 million acres or 32 percent of the total land area in the State. Important pests in Minnesota forests include the forest tent caterpillar and spruce budworm.

School-Based Condom Availability Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmiedl, Renee

2004-01-01

The repercussions of sexual activity among teens continue to be a significant issue in the United States. Detrimental consequences to unprotected sexual activity among teens include unintended pregnancy and acquiring a sexually transmitted disease (STD) or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). It is estimated that each year approximately 3 million…

USING A HEAT PULSE TO MEASURE THE FLUX BETWEEN GROUNDWATER AND SURFACE WATER

EPA Science Inventory

EPA estimates that 10 percent of the sediments under the surface waters of the United States are contaminated and approximately 20 percent of the superfund sites include contaminated sediments. The risk associated with these contaminated sediments is directly related to the flux...

Current status of Marek's disease in the united states and worldwide

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A questionnaire was widely distributed in 2011 to estimate the global prevalence of Marek’s disease and gain a better understanding of current control strategies and future concerns. A total of 104 questionnaires were returned representing 108 countries from sources including national branch secret...

Estimation of population-based utility weights for gastric cancer-related health states.

PubMed

Lee, Hyeon-Jeong; Ock, Minsu; Kim, Kyu-Pyo; Jo, Min-Woo

2018-01-01

This study aimed to generate utility weights of gastric cancer-related health states from the perspective of the Korean general population. The Korean adults (age ≥19 years) included in the study were sampled using multistage quota sampling methods stratified by sex, age, and education level. Nine scenarios for hypothetical gastric cancer-related health states were developed and reviewed. After consenting to participate, the subjects were surveyed by trained interviewers using a computer-assisted personal interview method. Participants were asked to perform standard gamble tasks to measure the utility weights of 5 randomly assigned health states (from among nine scenarios). The mean utility weight was calculated for each health state. Three hundred twenty-six of the 407 adults who completed this study were included in the analysis. The mean utility weights from the standard gamble were 0.857 (no gastric cancer with Helicobacter pylori infection), 0.773 (early gastric cancer [EGC] with endoscopic surgery), 0.779 (EGC with subtotal gastrectomy), 0.767 (EGC with total gastrectomy), 0.602 (advanced gastric cancer with subtotal gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy), 0.643 (advanced gastric cancer with total gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy), 0.522 (advanced gastric cancer with extended gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy), 0.404 (metastatic gastric cancer with palliative chemotherapy), and 0.399 (recurrent gastric cancer with palliative chemotherapy). This study was the first to comprehensively estimate the utility weights of gastric cancer-related health states in a general population. The utility weights derived from this study could be useful for future economic evaluations related to gastric cancer interventions.

Estimation of single plane unbalance parameters of a rotor-bearing system using Kalman filtering based force estimation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Akash; Mohanty, A. R.

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a model-based method to estimate single plane unbalance parameters (amplitude and phase angle) in a rotor using Kalman filter and recursive least square based input force estimation technique. Kalman filter based input force estimation technique requires state-space model and response measurements. A modified system equivalent reduction expansion process (SEREP) technique is employed to obtain a reduced-order model of the rotor system so that limited response measurements can be used. The method is demonstrated using numerical simulations on a rotor-disk-bearing system. Results are presented for different measurement sets including displacement, velocity, and rotational response. Effects of measurement noise level, filter parameters (process noise covariance and forgetting factor), and modeling error are also presented and it is observed that the unbalance parameter estimation is robust with respect to measurement noise.

Brainstem response and state-trait variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliland, Kirby

1988-01-01

A series of investigations are summarized from a personality research program that have relevance for mental state estimation. Of particular concern are those personality variables that are believed to have either a biological or perceptual basis and their relationship to human task performance and psychophysiology. These variables are among the most robust personality measures and include such dimensions as extraversion-introversion, sensation seeking, and impulsiveness. These dimensions also have the most distinct link to performance and psychophysiology. Through the course of many of these investigations two issues have emerged repeatedly: these personality dimensions appear to mediate mental state, and mental state appears to influence measures of performance or psychophysiology.

State estimation for autopilot control of small unmanned aerial vehicles in windy conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poorman, David Paul

The use of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) both in the military and civil realms is growing. This is largely due to the proliferation of inexpensive sensors and the increase in capability of small computers that has stemmed from the personal electronic device market. Methods for performing accurate state estimation for large scale aircraft have been well known and understood for decades, which usually involve a complex array of expensive high accuracy sensors. Performing accurate state estimation for small unmanned aircraft is a newer area of study and often involves adapting known state estimation methods to small UAVs. State estimation for small UAVs can be more difficult than state estimation for larger UAVs due to small UAVs employing limited sensor suites due to cost, and the fact that small UAVs are more susceptible to wind than large aircraft. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the ability of existing methods of state estimation for small UAVs to accurately capture the states of the aircraft that are necessary for autopilot control of the aircraft in a Dryden wind field. The research begins by showing which aircraft states are necessary for autopilot control in Dryden wind. Then two state estimation methods that employ only accelerometer, gyro, and GPS measurements are introduced. The first method uses assumptions on aircraft motion to directly solve for attitude information and smooth GPS data, while the second method integrates sensor data to propagate estimates between GPS measurements and then corrects those estimates with GPS information. The performance of both methods is analyzed with and without Dryden wind, in straight and level flight, in a coordinated turn, and in a wings level ascent. It is shown that in zero wind, the first method produces significant steady state attitude errors in both a coordinated turn and in a wings level ascent. In Dryden wind, it produces large noise on the estimates for its attitude states, and has a non-zero mean error that increases when gyro bias is increased. The second method is shown to not exhibit any steady state error in the tested scenarios that is inherent to its design. The second method can correct for attitude errors that arise from both integration error and gyro bias states, but it suffers from lack of attitude error observability. The attitude errors are shown to be more observable in wind, but increased integration error in wind outweighs the increase in attitude corrections that such increased observability brings, resulting in larger attitude errors in wind. Overall, this work highlights many technical deficiencies of both of these methods of state estimation that could be improved upon in the future to enhance state estimation for small UAVs in windy conditions.

Digital program for solving the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geyser, L. C.; Lehtinen, B.

1975-01-01

A computer program is described which solves the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation (LSOCE) problem by using a time-domain formulation. The LSOCE problem is defined as that of designing controls for a linear time-invariant system which is disturbed by white noise in such a way as to minimize a performance index which is quadratic in state and control variables. The LSOCE problem and solution are outlined; brief descriptions are given of the solution algorithms, and complete descriptions of each subroutine, including usage information and digital listings, are provided. A test case is included, as well as information on the IBM 7090-7094 DCS time and storage requirements.

Reinforcement learning state estimator.

PubMed

Morimoto, Jun; Doya, Kenji

2007-03-01

In this study, we propose a novel use of reinforcement learning for estimating hidden variables and parameters of nonlinear dynamical systems. A critical issue in hidden-state estimation is that we cannot directly observe estimation errors. However, by defining errors of observable variables as a delayed penalty, we can apply a reinforcement learning frame-work to state estimation problems. Specifically, we derive a method to construct a nonlinear state estimator by finding an appropriate feedback input gain using the policy gradient method. We tested the proposed method on single pendulum dynamics and show that the joint angle variable could be successfully estimated by observing only the angular velocity, and vice versa. In addition, we show that we could acquire a state estimator for the pendulum swing-up task in which a swing-up controller is also acquired by reinforcement learning simultaneously. Furthermore, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the dynamics of the pendulum itself while the hidden variables are estimated in the pendulum swing-up task. Application of the proposed method to a two-linked biped model is also presented.

Exponentially convergent state estimation for delayed switched recurrent neural networks.

PubMed

Ahn, Choon Ki

2011-11-01

This paper deals with the delay-dependent exponentially convergent state estimation problem for delayed switched neural networks. A set of delay-dependent criteria is derived under which the resulting estimation error system is exponentially stable. It is shown that the gain matrix of the proposed state estimator is characterised in terms of the solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked readily by using some standard numerical packages. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed state estimator.

Hierarchical information fusion for global displacement estimation in microsensor motion capture.

PubMed

Meng, Xiaoli; Zhang, Zhi-Qiang; Wu, Jian-Kang; Wong, Wai-Choong

2013-07-01

This paper presents a novel hierarchical information fusion algorithm to obtain human global displacement for different gait patterns, including walking, running, and hopping based on seven body-worn inertial and magnetic measurement units. In the first-level sensor fusion, the orientation for each segment is achieved by a complementary Kalman filter (CKF) which compensates for the orientation error of the inertial navigation system solution through its error state vector. For each foot segment, the displacement is also estimated by the CKF, and zero velocity update is included for the drift reduction in foot displacement estimation. Based on the segment orientations and left/right foot locations, two global displacement estimates can be acquired from left/right lower limb separately using a linked biomechanical model. In the second-level geometric fusion, another Kalman filter is deployed to compensate for the difference between the two estimates from the sensor fusion and get more accurate overall global displacement estimation. The updated global displacement will be transmitted to left/right foot based on the human lower biomechanical model to restrict the drifts in both feet displacements. The experimental results have shown that our proposed method can accurately estimate human locomotion for the three different gait patterns with regard to the optical motion tracker.

Suzaku Observation of the transient black hole binary XTE J1752 223

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koyama, S.; Tashiro, M. S.; Terada, Y.; Seta, H.; Kubota, A.; Yamaoka, K.

2010-12-01

The black hole candidate XTE J1752-223 was discovered on October 23, 2009 with RXTE/PCA and was observed by several other satellites in X-ray band, including MAXI. MAXI succeeded in covering whole picture of the outburst from low/hard state to high/soft state, and to low/hard state again. (Nakahira et al. 2010). Triggered by MAXI team, Suzaku carried out a ToO observation XTE J1752-223 with the wide X-ray band instruments on February 24, 2010. As Reis et al. (2010) reported, the source flux exceeded 400 mCrab and the spectrum was described with MCD, power-law model and broadened iron line. In general, we have to carefully estimate the effect of event pileup at the CCD image peak of such a bright source to avoid that effect. We independently estimated the pileup affected region in particular, and found that the region within 2 arcmin from the image peak is likely to be affected by pileup at least. In this paper we show the result of pileup estimation and the effect for the X-ray spectrum with the larger discarding area, and also the accretion disk parameter based on the obtained spectra.

An approximate Kalman filter for ocean data assimilation: An example with an idealized Gulf Stream model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

1995-01-01

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximation of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudomeasurements are examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform an empirical nudging scheme used in a previous study. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

Estimating the state of a geophysical system with sparse observations: time delay methods to achieve accurate initial states for prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Zhe; Rey, Daniel; Ye, Jingxin; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

2017-01-01

The problem of forecasting the behavior of a complex dynamical system through analysis of observational time-series data becomes difficult when the system expresses chaotic behavior and the measurements are sparse, in both space and/or time. Despite the fact that this situation is quite typical across many fields, including numerical weather prediction, the issue of whether the available observations are "sufficient" for generating successful forecasts is still not well understood. An analysis by Whartenby et al. (2013) found that in the context of the nonlinear shallow water equations on a β plane, standard nudging techniques require observing approximately 70 % of the full set of state variables. Here we examine the same system using a method introduced by Rey et al. (2014a), which generalizes standard nudging methods to utilize time delayed measurements. We show that in certain circumstances, it provides a sizable reduction in the number of observations required to construct accurate estimates and high-quality predictions. In particular, we find that this estimate of 70 % can be reduced to about 33 % using time delays, and even further if Lagrangian drifter locations are also used as measurements.

An approximate Kalman filter for ocean data assimilation: An example with an idealized Gulf Stream model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

1995-04-01

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kaiman filter based on approximations of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudomeasurements are examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform an empirical nudging scheme used in a previous study. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

[Precautionary principle. State of the situation in Argentina].

PubMed

Kemelmajer de Carlucci, Aída

2017-10-13

The new Argentine Civil and Commercial Code includes the prevention principle. The precautionary Principle is regulated by the Environmental Protection Act.A significant number of cases have reached the Supreme Court of the Nation. This Court, in general, estimates that the decisions concerning the precautionary principle have definitive nature, i.e., are not merely provisional. Usually, the situation is caused by the State itself, which fails to control. The different decisions show a Judiciary worried about protecting the environment.

Variance-reduced simulation of lattice discrete-time Markov chains with applications in reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maginnis, P. A.; West, M.; Dullerud, G. E.

2016-10-01

We propose an algorithm to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation for a broad class of stochastic processes. Specifically, the class of countable-state, discrete-time Markov chains driven by additive Poisson noise, or lattice discrete-time Markov chains. In particular, this class includes simulation of reaction networks via the tau-leaping algorithm. To produce the speedup, we simulate pairs of fair-draw trajectories that are negatively correlated. Thus, when averaged, these paths produce an unbiased Monte Carlo estimator that has reduced variance and, therefore, reduced error. Numerical results for three example systems included in this work demonstrate two to four orders of magnitude reduction of mean-square error. The numerical examples were chosen to illustrate different application areas and levels of system complexity. The areas are: gene expression (affine state-dependent rates), aerosol particle coagulation with emission and human immunodeficiency virus infection (both with nonlinear state-dependent rates). Our algorithm views the system dynamics as a ;black-box;, i.e., we only require control of pseudorandom number generator inputs. As a result, typical codes can be retrofitted with our algorithm using only minor changes. We prove several analytical results. Among these, we characterize the relationship of covariances between paths in the general nonlinear state-dependent intensity rates case, and we prove variance reduction of mean estimators in the special case of affine intensity rates.

Short Sleep Duration Among Middle School and High School Students - United States, 2015.

PubMed

Wheaton, Anne G; Jones, Sherry Everett; Cooper, Adina C; Croft, Janet B

2018-01-26

Insufficient sleep among children and adolescents is associated with increased risk for obesity, diabetes, injuries, poor mental health, attention and behavior problems, and poor academic performance (1-4). The American Academy of Sleep Medicine has recommended that, for optimal health, children aged 6-12 years should regularly sleep 9-12 hours per 24 hours and teens aged 13-18 years should sleep 8-10 hours per 24 hours (1). CDC analyzed data from the 2015 national, state, and large urban school district Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBSs) to determine the prevalence of short sleep duration (<9 hours for children aged 6-12 years and <8 hours for teens aged 13-18 years) on school nights among middle school and high school students in the United States. In nine states that conducted the middle school YRBS and included a question about sleep duration in their questionnaire, the prevalence of short sleep duration among middle school students was 57.8%, with state-level estimates ranging from 50.2% (New Mexico) to 64.7% (Kentucky). The prevalence of short sleep duration among high school students in the national YRBS was 72.7%. State-level estimates of short sleep duration for the 30 states that conducted the high school YRBS and included a question about sleep duration in their questionnaire ranged from 61.8% (South Dakota) to 82.5% (West Virginia). The large percentage of middle school and high school students who do not get enough sleep on school nights suggests a need for promoting sleep health in schools and at home and delaying school start times to permit students adequate time for sleep.

Estimates of utility weights in hemophilia: implications for cost-utility analysis of clotting factor prophylaxis

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D; Chaugule, Shraddha S; Hay, Joel W

2015-01-01

Estimates of preference-weighted health outcomes or health state utilities are needed to assess improvements in health in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. Gains in quality-adjusted life-years are used to assess the cost–effectiveness of prophylactic use of clotting factor compared with on-demand treatment among people with hemophilia, a congenital bleeding disorder. Published estimates of health utilities for people with hemophilia vary, contributing to uncertainty in the estimates of cost–effectiveness of prophylaxis. Challenges in estimating utility weights for the purpose of evaluating hemophilia treatment include selection bias in observational data, difficulty in adjusting for predictors of health-related quality of life and lack of preference-based data comparing adults with lifetime or primary prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis living within the same country and healthcare system. PMID:25585817

Geospatial tools effectively estimate nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflow at ungauged and intermittently gauged locations in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, William H.; Koltun, Greg

2017-01-01

Study regionThe state of Ohio in the United States, a humid, continental climate.Study focusThe estimation of nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflows as an alternative means of establishing the relative magnitudes of streamflows associated with hydrologic and water-quality observations.New hydrological insights for the regionSeveral methods for estimating nonexceedance probabilities of daily mean streamflows are explored, including single-index methodologies (nearest-neighboring index) and geospatial tools (kriging and topological kriging). These methods were evaluated by conducting leave-one-out cross-validations based on analyses of nearly 7 years of daily streamflow data from 79 unregulated streamgages in Ohio and neighboring states. The pooled, ordinary kriging model, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe performance of 0.87, was superior to the single-site index methods, though there was some bias in the tails of the probability distribution. Incorporating network structure through topological kriging did not improve performance. The pooled, ordinary kriging model was applied to 118 locations without systematic streamgaging across Ohio where instantaneous streamflow measurements had been made concurrent with water-quality sampling on at least 3 separate days. Spearman rank correlations between estimated nonexceedance probabilities and measured streamflows were high, with a median value of 0.76. In consideration of application, the degree of regulation in a set of sample sites helped to specify the streamgages required to implement kriging approaches successfully.

Industrial diamond

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, D.W.

2013-01-01

Estimated 2012 world production of natural and synthetic industrial diamond was about 4.45 billion carats. During 2012, natural industrial diamonds were produced in at least 20 countries, and synthetic industrial diamond was produced in at least 12 countries. About 99 percent of the combined natural and synthetic global output was produced in Belarus, China, Ireland, Japan, Russia, South Africa and the United States. During 2012, China was the world’s leading producer of synthetic industrial diamond followed by the United States and Russia. In 2012, the two U.S. synthetic producers, one in Pennsylvania and the other in Ohio, had an estimated output of 103 million carats, valued at about $70.6 million. This was an estimated 43.7 million carats of synthetic diamond bort, grit, and dust and powder with a value of $14.5 million combined with an estimated 59.7 million carats of synthetic diamond stone with a value of $56.1 million. Also in 2012, nine U.S. firms manufactured polycrystalline diamond (PCD) from synthetic diamond grit and powder. The United States government does not collect or maintain data for either domestic PCD producers or domestic chemical vapor deposition (CVD) diamond producers for quantity or value of annual production. Current trade and consumption quantity data are not available for PCD or for CVD diamond. For these reasons, PCD and CVD diamond are not included in the industrial diamond quantitative data reported here.

A model of cerebellar computations for dynamical state estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paulin, M. G.; Hoffman, L. F.; Assad, C.

2001-01-01

The cerebellum is a neural structure that is essential for agility in vertebrate movements. Its contribution to motor control appears to be due to a fundamental role in dynamical state estimation, which also underlies its role in various non-motor tasks. Single spikes in vestibular sensory neurons carry information about head state. We show how computations for optimal dynamical state estimation may be accomplished when signals are encoded in spikes. This provides a novel way to design dynamical state estimators, and a novel way to interpret the structure and function of the cerebellum.

A weight modification sequential method for VSC-MTDC power system state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaonan; Zhang, Hao; Li, Qiang; Guo, Ziming; Zhao, Kun; Li, Xinpeng; Han, Feng

2017-06-01

This paper presents an effective sequential approach based on weight modification for VSC-MTDC power system state estimation, called weight modification sequential method. The proposed approach simplifies the AC/DC system state estimation algorithm through modifying the weight of state quantity to keep the matrix dimension constant. The weight modification sequential method can also make the VSC-MTDC system state estimation calculation results more ccurate and increase the speed of calculation. The effectiveness of the proposed weight modification sequential method is demonstrated and validated in modified IEEE 14 bus system.

Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Li, Q.; Randerson, J. T.; Liou, K.

2011-12-01

We apply a Bayesian linear inversion to derive top-down estimates of biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC) in the western United States (WUS) for May-November 2006 by inverting surface BC concentrations from the IMPROVE network using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Model simulations are conducted at both 2°×2.5° (globally) and 0.55°×0.66° (nested over North America) horizontal resolutions. We first improve the spatial distributions and seasonal and interannual variations of the BC emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) using MODIS 8-day active fire counts from 2005-2007. The GFEDv2 emissions in N. America are adjusted for three zones: boreal N. America, temperate N. America, and Mexico plus Central America. The resulting emissions are then used as a priori for the inversion. The a posteriori emissions are 2-5 times higher than the a priori in California and the Rockies. Model surface BC concentrations using the a posteriori estimate provide better agreement with IMPROVE observations (~20% increase in the Taylor skill score), including improved ability to capture the observed variability especially during June-July. However, model surface BC concentrations are still biased low by ~30%. Comparisons with the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) are included.

Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Li, Q.; Randerson, J. T.; CHEN, D.; Zhang, L.; Liou, K.

2012-12-01

We apply a Bayesian linear inversion to derive top-down estimates of biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC) in the western United States (WUS) for May-November 2006 by inverting surface BC concentrations from the IMPROVE network using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Model simulations are conducted at both 2°×2.5° (globally) and 0.5°×0.667° (nested over North America) horizontal resolutions. We first improve the spatial distributions and seasonal and interannual variations of the BC emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) using MODIS 8-day active fire counts from 2005-2007. The GFEDv2 emissions in N. America are adjusted for three zones: boreal N. America, temperate N. America, and Mexico plus Central America. The resulting emissions are then used as a priori for the inversion. The a posteriori emissions are 2-5 times higher than the a priori in California and the Rockies. Model surface BC concentrations using the a posteriori estimate provide better agreement with IMPROVE observations (~50% increase in the Taylor skill score), including improved ability to capture the observed variability especially during June-September. However, model surface BC concentrations are still biased low by ~30%. Comparisons with the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) are included.

Reexamination of optimal quantum state estimation of pure states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hayashi, A.; Hashimoto, T.; Horibe, M.

2005-09-15

A direct derivation is given for the optimal mean fidelity of quantum state estimation of a d-dimensional unknown pure state with its N copies given as input, which was first obtained by Hayashi in terms of an infinite set of covariant positive operator valued measures (POVM's) and by Bruss and Macchiavello establishing a connection to optimal quantum cloning. An explicit condition for POVM measurement operators for optimal estimators is obtained, by which we construct optimal estimators with finite POVMs using exact quadratures on a hypersphere. These finite optimal estimators are not generally universal, where universality means the fidelity is independentmore » of input states. However, any optimal estimator with finite POVM for M(>N) copies is universal if it is used for N copies as input.« less

General Method for Constructing Local Hidden Variable Models for Entangled Quantum States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, D.; Guerini, L.; Rabelo, R.; Skrzypczyk, P.

2016-11-01

Entanglement allows for the nonlocality of quantum theory, which is the resource behind device-independent quantum information protocols. However, not all entangled quantum states display nonlocality. A central question is to determine the precise relation between entanglement and nonlocality. Here we present the first general test to decide whether a quantum state is local, and show that the test can be implemented by semidefinite programing. This method can be applied to any given state and for the construction of new examples of states with local hidden variable models for both projective and general measurements. As applications, we provide a lower-bound estimate of the fraction of two-qubit local entangled states and present new explicit examples of such states, including those that arise from physical noise models, Bell-diagonal states, and noisy Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and W states.

National Literacy Act of 1991. Report To Accompany H.R. 751. Including Cost Estimate of the Congressional Budget Office. House of Representatives, 102d Congress, 1st Session.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Committee on Education and Labor.

The National Literacy Act of 1991 is a comprehensive approach for improving the literacy and basic skill levels of adults by coordinating, integrating, and investing in adult and family literacy programs at the federal, state, and local levels. The legislation provides for research and program delivery. All sectors, including public,…

The economic burden of elevated blood glucose levels in 2012: diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, gestational diabetes mellitus, and prediabetes.

PubMed

Dall, Timothy M; Yang, Wenya; Halder, Pragna; Pang, Bo; Massoudi, Marjan; Wintfeld, Neil; Semilla, April P; Franz, Jerry; Hogan, Paul F

2014-12-01

To update estimates of the economic burden of undiagnosed diabetes, prediabetes, and gestational diabetes mellitus in 2012 in the U.S. and to present state-level estimates. Combined with published estimates for diagnosed diabetes, these statistics provide a detailed picture of the economic costs associated with elevated glucose levels. This study estimated health care use and medical expenditures in excess of expected levels occurring in the absence of diabetes or prediabetes. Data sources that were analyzed include Optum medical claims for ∼4.9 million commercially insured patients who were continuously enrolled from 2010 to 2012, Medicare Standard Analytical Files containing medical claims for ∼2.6 million Medicare patients in 2011, and the 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample containing ∼7.8 million hospital discharge records. The indirect economic burden includes reduced labor force participation, missed workdays, and reduced productivity. State-level estimates reflect geographic variation in prevalence, risk factors, and prices. The economic burden associated with diagnosed diabetes (all ages) and undiagnosed diabetes, gestational diabetes, and prediabetes (adults) exceeded $322 billion in 2012, consisting of $244 billion in excess medical costs and $78 billion in reduced productivity. Combined, this amounts to an economic burden exceeding $1,000 for each American in 2012. This national estimate is 48% higher than the $218 billion estimate for 2007. The burden per case averaged $10,970 for diagnosed diabetes, $5,800 for gestational diabetes, $4,030 for undiagnosed diabetes, and $510 for prediabetes. These statistics underscore the importance of finding ways to reduce the burden of prediabetes and diabetes through prevention and treatment. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillesand, T. M.; Johnson, W. L.; Deuell, R. L.; Lindstrom, O. M.; Meisner, D. E.

1983-01-01

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

U.S. crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves 1997 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, John H.; Grape, Steven G.; Green, Rhonda S.

1998-12-01

This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1997, as well as production volumes for the US and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1997. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), nonassociated gas and associated-dissolved gas (which are the two major types of wet natural gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, reserve estimates for two types of natural gas liquids, leasemore » condensate and natural gas plant liquids, are presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1997 is provided. 21 figs., 16 tabs.« less

The economic impact of revision otologic surgery.

PubMed

Nadimi, Sahar; Leonetti, John P; Pontikis, George

2016-03-01

Revision otologic surgery places a significant economic burden on patients and the healthcare system. We conducted a retrospective chart analysis to estimate the economic impact of revision canal-wall-down (CWD) mastoidectomy. We reviewed the medical records of all 189 adults who had undergone CWD mastoidectomy performed by the senior author between June 2006 and August 2011 at Loyola University Medical Center in Maywood, Ill. Institutional charges and collections for all patients were extrapolated to estimate the overall healthcare cost of revision surgery in Illinois and at the national level. Of the 189 CWD mastoidectomies, 89 were primary and 100 were revision procedures. The total charge for the revision cases was $2,783,700, and the net reimbursement (collections) was $846,289 (30.4%). Using Illinois Hospital Association data, we estimated that reimbursement for 387 revision CWD mastoidectomies that had been performed in fiscal year 2011 was nearly $3.3 million. By extrapolating our data to the national level, we estimated that 9,214 patients underwent revision CWD mastoidectomy in the United States during 2011, which cost the national healthcare system roughly $76 million, not including lost wages and productivity. Known causes of failed CWD mastoidectomies that often result in revision surgery include an inadequate meatoplasty, a facial ridge that is too high, residual diseased air cells, and recurrent cholesteatoma. A better understanding of these factors can reduce the need for revision surgery, which could have a positive impact on the economic strain related to this procedure at the local, state, and national levels.

Stated time preferences for health: a systematic review and meta analysis of private and social discount rates.

PubMed

Mahboub-Ahari, Alireza; Pourreza, Abolghasem; Sari, Ali Akbari; Rahimi Foroushani, Abbas; Heydari, Hassan

2014-01-01

The present study aimed to provide better insight on methodological issues related to time preference studies, and to estimate private and social discount rates, using a rigorous systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Proquest databases in June 2013. All studies had estimated private and social time preference rates for health outcomes through stated preference approach, recognized eligible for inclusion. We conducted both fixed and random effect meta-analyses using mean discount rate and standard deviation of the included studies. I-square statistics was used for testing heterogeneity of the studies. Private and social discount rates were estimated separately via Stata11 software. Out of 44 screened full texts, 8 population-based empirical studies were included in qualitative synthesis. Reported time preference rates for own health were from 0.036 to 0.07 and for social health from 0.04 to 0.2. Private and social discount rates were estimated at 0.056 (95% CI: 0.038, 0.074) and 0.066 (95% CI: 0.064, 0.068), respectively. Considering the impact of time preference on healthy behaviors and because of timing issues, individual's time preference as a key determinant of policy making should be taken into account. Direct translation of elicited discount rates to the official discount rates has been remained questionable. Decisions about the proper discount rate for health context, may need a cross-party consensus among health economists and policy makers.

Production cost analysis of Euphorbia lathyris. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendel, D.A.; Schooley, F.A.; Dickenson, R.L.

1979-08-01

The purpose of SRI's study was to estimate the costs of producing Euphorbia in commercial quantities in five regions of the United States, which include both irrigated and nonirrigated areas. The study assumed that a uniform crop yield could be achieved in the five regions by varying the quantities of production inputs. Therefore, the production costs estimates, which are based on fourth quarter 1978 dollars, include both fixed and variable costs for each region. Doane's Machinery Custom Rates for 1978 were used to estimate all variable costs except materials, which were estimated separately. Custom rates are determined by members ofmore » the Doane Countywide Farm Panel, a group of farmers specifically selected to represent the various sizes and types of commercial farms found throughout the country. The rates reported are the most recent rates the panel members had either paid, charged, or known for certain a second party had paid or charged. Custom rates for any particular operation include equipment operating costs (fuel, lubrication, and repairs), equipment ownership costs (depreciation, taxes, interest), as well as a labor charge for the operator. Custom rates are regionally specific and thereby assist the accuracy of this analysis. Fixed costs include land, management, and transportation of the plant material to a conversion facility. When appropriate, fixed costs were regionally specific. Changes in total production costs over future time periods were not addressed. The total estimated production costs of Euphorbia in each region were compared with production costs for corn and alfalfa in the same regions. Finally, the effects on yield and costs of changes in the production inputs were estimated.« less