Which stocks are profitable? A network method to investigate the effects of network structure on stock returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kun; Luo, Peng; Sun, Bianxia; Wang, Huaiqing

2015-10-01

According to asset pricing theory, a stock's expected returns are determined by its exposure to systematic risk. In this paper, we propose a new method for analyzing the interaction effects among industries and stocks on stock returns. We construct a complex network based on correlations of abnormal stock returns and use centrality and modularity, two popular measures in social science, to determine the effect of interconnections on industry and stock returns. Supported by previous studies, our findings indicate that a relationship exists between inter-industry closeness and industry returns and between stock centrality and stock returns. The theoretical and practical contributions of these findings are discussed.

Assessment of socioeconomic costs to China's air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yang; Guan, Dabo; Jiang, Xujia; Peng, Liqun; Schroeder, Heike; Zhang, Qiang

2016-08-01

Particulate air pollution has had a significant impact on human health in China and it is associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and high mortality and morbidity. These health impacts could be translated to reduced labor availability and time. This paper utilized a supply-driven input-output (I-O) model to estimate the monetary value of total output losses resulting from reduced working time caused by diseases related to air pollution across 30 Chinese provinces in 2007. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution was used as an indicator to assess impacts to health caused by air pollution. The developed I-O model is able to capture both direct economic costs and indirect cascading effects throughout inter-regional production supply chains and the indirect effects greatly outnumber the direct effects in most Chinese provinces. Our results show the total economic losses of 346.26 billion Yuan (approximately 1.1% of the national GDP) based on the number of affected Chinese employees (72 million out of a total labor population of 712 million) whose work time in years was reduced because of mortality, hospital admissions and outpatient visits due to diseases resulting from PM2.5 air pollution in 2007. The loss is almost the annual GDP of Vietnam in 2010. The proposed modelling approach provides an alternative method for health-cost measurement with additional insights on inter-industrial and inter-regional linkages along production supply chains.

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belzer, D.B.

1997-02-01

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studiesmore » of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.« less

The future of the US electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dar, V.K.

1995-07-01

The future of the electricity industry will be shaped by five forces, already unleashed, and industry leaders` reaction to them. The opportunities for heady executives in well-positioned companies will extend far beyond the borders of today`s confined industry. How the game is played will determine whether utilities are the conquerors or vanquished. The future history of the industry will be written by those who are beginning to fashion their strategic responses to these forces: the deregulation of energy distribution, technological change, intellectual capital, interindustry convergence, and cultural dissonance. For most utilities, strategies are now being contemplated - come coherently, othersmore » inchoately - according to the perceived competences and weaknesses of each company in the eyes of its management and board.« less

Scaling of global input-output networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Sai; Qi, Zhengling; Qu, Shen; Zhu, Ji; Chiu, Anthony S. F.; Jia, Xiaoping; Xu, Ming

2016-06-01

Examining scaling patterns of networks can help understand how structural features relate to the behavior of the networks. Input-output networks consist of industries as nodes and inter-industrial exchanges of products as links. Previous studies consider limited measures for node strengths and link weights, and also ignore the impact of dataset choice. We consider a comprehensive set of indicators in this study that are important in economic analysis, and also examine the impact of dataset choice, by studying input-output networks in individual countries and the entire world. Results show that Burr, Log-Logistic, Log-normal, and Weibull distributions can better describe scaling patterns of global input-output networks. We also find that dataset choice has limited impacts on the observed scaling patterns. Our findings can help examine the quality of economic statistics, estimate missing data in economic statistics, and identify key nodes and links in input-output networks to support economic policymaking.

Australia's regional innovation systems: inter-industry interaction in innovative activities in three Australian territories

PubMed Central

Schütz, Marlies H.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Regional specifics reveal in differences in economic activity and structure, the institutional, socio-economic and cultural environment and not least in the capability of regions to create new knowledge and to generate innovations. Focusing on the regional level, this paper for three Australian territories (New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland) explores patterns of innovative activities in their private business sectors. Furthermore, these patterns are compared to specifics of each region's economic structure. We make use of input–output-based innovation flow networks, which are directed and weighted instead of binary. The value added of the proposed analysis is that we are able to trace a variety of different aspects related to the structure of innovative activities for each territory. It gets evident that mostly innovative activities in each territory are not strong in ‘niche’ branches but in fields of intense economic activity, signalising the high path-dependency of innovative activities in a specific geographical environment. PMID:29097849

Australia's regional innovation systems: inter-industry interaction in innovative activities in three Australian territories.

PubMed

Schütz, Marlies H

2017-07-03

Regional specifics reveal in differences in economic activity and structure, the institutional, socio-economic and cultural environment and not least in the capability of regions to create new knowledge and to generate innovations. Focusing on the regional level, this paper for three Australian territories (New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland) explores patterns of innovative activities in their private business sectors. Furthermore, these patterns are compared to specifics of each region's economic structure. We make use of input-output-based innovation flow networks, which are directed and weighted instead of binary. The value added of the proposed analysis is that we are able to trace a variety of different aspects related to the structure of innovative activities for each territory. It gets evident that mostly innovative activities in each territory are not strong in 'niche' branches but in fields of intense economic activity, signalising the high path-dependency of innovative activities in a specific geographical environment.

A Study of Comparative Advantage and Intra-Industry Trade in the Pharmaceutical Industry of Iran.

PubMed

Yusefzadeh, Hassan; Rezapour, Aziz; Lotfi, Farhad; Ebadifard Azar, Farbod; Nabilo, Bahram; Abolghasem Gorji, Hassan; Hadian, Mohammad; Shahidisadeghi, Niusha; Karami, Atiyeh

2015-04-23

Drug costs in Iran accounts for about 30% of the total health care expenditure. Moreover, pharmaceutical business lies among the world's greatest businesses. The aim of this study was to analyze Iran's comparative advantage and intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals so that suitable policies can be developed and implemented in order to boost Iran's trade in this field. To identify Iran's comparative advantage in pharmaceuticals, trade specialization, export propensity, import penetration and Balassa and Vollrath indexes were calculated and the results were compared with other pharmaceutical exporting countries. The extent and growth of Iran's intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals were measured and evaluated using the Grubel-Lloyd and Menon-Dixon indexes. The required data was obtained from Iran's Customs Administration, Iran's pharmaceutical Statistics, World Bank and International Trade Center. The results showed that among pharmaceutical exporting countries, Iran has a high level of comparative disadvantage in pharmaceutical products because it holds a small share in world's total pharmaceutical exports. Also, the low extent of bilateral intra-industry trade between Iran and its trading partners in pharmaceuticals shows the trading model of Iran's pharmaceutical industry is mostly inter-industry trade rather than intra-industry trade. In addition, the growth of Iran's intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals is due to its shares of imports from pharmaceutical exporting countries to Iran and exports from Iran to its neighboring countries. The results of the analysis can play a valuable role in helping pharmaceutical companies and policy makers to boost pharmaceutical trade.

Strategies for sustainable development of industrial park in Ulsan, South Korea--from spontaneous evolution to systematic expansion of industrial symbiosis.

PubMed

Park, Hung-Suck; Rene, Eldon R; Choi, Soo-Mi; Chiu, Anthony S F

2008-04-01

The Korea National Cleaner Production Center (KNCPC) affiliated to the Korea Institute of Industrial Technology (KITECH) has started a 15 year, 3-phase EIP master plan with the support of Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy (MOCIE). A total of 6 industrial parks, including industrial parks in Ulsan city, known as the industrial capital of South Korea, are planning projects to find the feasibility of shifting existing industrial parks to eco-industrial parks. The basic survey shows that Ulsan industrial complex has been continuously evolving from conventional industrial complexes to eco-industrial parks by spontaneous industrial symbiosis. This paper describes the Korean national policies and the developmental activities of this vision to drive the global trend of innovation for converting the existing industrial parks to eco-industrial parks through inter-industry waste, energy, and material exchange in Ulsan Industrial complexes. In addition, the primary and supportive components of the Ulsan EIP pilot project, which will be implemented for 5 years is elaborated with its schedules and economic benefits.

A Study of Comparative Advantage and Intra-Industry Trade in the Pharmaceutical Industry of Iran

PubMed Central

Yusefzadeh, Hassan; Rezapour, Aziz; Lotfi, Farhad; Azar, Farbod Ebadifard; Nabilo, Bahram; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Hadian, Mohammad; Shahidisadeghi, Niusha; Karami, Atiyeh

2015-01-01

Background: Drug costs in Iran accounts for about 30% of the total health care expenditure. Moreover, pharmaceutical business lies among the world’s greatest businesses. The aim of this study was to analyze Iran’s comparative advantage and intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals so that suitable policies can be developed and implemented in order to boost Iran’s trade in this field. Methods: To identify Iran’s comparative advantage in pharmaceuticals, trade specialization, export propensity, import penetration and Balassa and Vollrath indexes were calculated and the results were compared with other pharmaceutical exporting countries. The extent and growth of Iran’s intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals were measured and evaluated using the Grubel-Lloyd and Menon-Dixon indexes. The required data was obtained from Iran’s Customs Administration, Iran’s pharmaceutical Statistics, World Bank and International Trade Center. Results: The results showed that among pharmaceutical exporting countries, Iran has a high level of comparative disadvantage in pharmaceutical products because it holds a small share in world’s total pharmaceutical exports. Also, the low extent of bilateral intra-industry trade between Iran and its trading partners in pharmaceuticals shows the trading model of Iran’s pharmaceutical industry is mostly inter-industry trade rather than intra-industry trade. In addition, the growth of Iran’s intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals is due to its shares of imports from pharmaceutical exporting countries to Iran and exports from Iran to its neighboring countries. Conclusions: The results of the analysis can play a valuable role in helping pharmaceutical companies and policy makers to boost pharmaceutical trade. PMID:26153184

Readiness for interprofessional learning: a cross-faculty comparison between architecture and occupational therapy students.

PubMed

Larkin, Helen; Hitch, Danielle; Watchorn, Valerie; Ang, Susan; Stagnitti, Karen

2013-09-01

Health and wellbeing includes a need for built environments to accommodate and be inclusive of the broadest range of people and a corresponding need to ensure graduates are ready to engage in this field of interprofessional and inter-industry practise. All too often, interprofessional education in higher education is neglected with a tendency towards educational silos, particularly at a cross-faculty level. This paper reports on an initiative that embedded universal design practice education into the curricula of first year architecture and third year occupational therapy students and evaluated the impact on students' readiness for interprofessional learning. The Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale (RIPLS) was given to students at the beginning and end of the semester during which students participated in a variety of online and face-to-face curriculum initiatives. Results showed that at the beginning of semester, occupational therapy students were significantly more positive about interprofessional learning than their architecture counterparts. Post-results showed that this trend continued but that occupational therapy students became less positive on some items after the interprofessional learning experience. This study provides insights into the interprofessional learning experiences of a group of students who have not previously been studied within the available literature.

Forecasting jobs in the supply chain for investments in residential energy efficiency retrofits in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fobair, Richard C., II

This research presents a model for forecasting the numbers of jobs created in the energy efficiency retrofit (EER) supply chain resulting from an investment in upgrading residential buildings in Florida. This investigation examined material supply chains stretching from mining to project installation for three product types: insulation, windows/doors, and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Outputs from the model are provided for the project, sales, manufacturing, and mining level. The model utilizes reverse-estimation to forecast the numbers of jobs that result from an investment. Reverse-estimation is a process that deconstructs a total investment into its constituent parts. In this research, an investment is deconstructed into profit, overhead, and hard costs for each level of the supply chain and over multiple iterations of inter-industry exchanges. The model processes an investment amount, the type of work and method of contracting into a prediction of the number of jobs created. The deconstruction process utilizes data from the U.S. Economic Census. At each supply chain level, the cost of labor is reconfigured into full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs (i.e. equivalent to 40 hours per week for 52 weeks) utilizing loaded labor rates and a typical employee mix. The model is sensitive to adjustable variables, such as percentage of work performed per type of product, allocation of worker time per skill level, annual hours for FTE calculations, wage rate, and benefits. This research provides several new insights into job creation. First, it provides definitions that can be used for future research on jobs in supply chains related to energy efficiency. Second, it provides a methodology for future investigators to calculate jobs in a supply chain resulting from an investment in energy efficiency upgrades to a building. The methodology used in this research is unique because it examines gross employment at the sub-industry level for specific commodities. Most research on employment examines the net employment change (job creation less job destruction) at levels for regions, industries, and the aggregate economy. Third, it provides a forecast of the numbers of jobs for an investment in energy efficiency over the entire supply chain for the selected industries and the job factors for major levels of the supply chain.

Sectoral linkage analysis of three main air pollutants in China's industry: Comparing 2010 with 2002.

PubMed

He, Weiwei; Wang, Yuan; Zuo, Jian; Luo, Yincheng

2017-11-01

To investigate the driving forces of air pollution in China, the changes in linkages amongst inter-industrial air pollutant emissions were analyzed by hypothetical extraction method under the input-output framework. Results showed that the emissions of SO 2 , soot and dust from industrial sources increased by 56.46%, 36.95% and 11.69% respectively in 2010, compared with 2002. As major contributors to emissions, the power and gas sectors were responsible for the growing SO 2 emissions, the nonmetal products sector for soot emissions, and the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors for dust emissions. The increasing volume of emissions was mainly driven by the growing demand in the transport equipment and electrical equipment sectors. In addition, the expansion in the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors could result in even more severe air pollution. Therefore, potential effective strategies to control air pollution in China are: (1) reducing the demand of major import sectors in the equipment manufacturing industry; (2) promoting R&D in low-emissions-production technologies to the power and gas sectors, the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors, and the nonmetal products sector, and (3) auditing the considerable industrial scale expansion in the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors and optimizing the industrial structure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occupational health services in South Carolina manufacturing plants: results of a survey.

PubMed Central

Chovil, A C; Alexander, G R; Gibson, J J; Altekruse, J M

1983-01-01

A mailed survey of occupational health and safety practices in industrial manufacturing plants with more than 50 employees was carried out in South Carolina, with a response rate of 60 percent. The responding plants represented 73 percent of the total workforce in the industries. Data were analyzed in relation to the types of industry as delineated by the Standard Industrial Code. Eighty-three percent of the responding plants (a percentage that represented more than 92 percent of the total workforce in the industries) had some arrangements for the medical or nursing care of employees. For the study, occupational health services were defined at three levels: basic (mandatory), secondary (beneficial to management), and tertiary (health promotion-preventive medicine). The basic services provided by most of the industries surveyed appeared to be adequate. Secondary services were well developed except in the apparel and lumber industries. Tertiary services, in terms of five selected preventive programs, were moderately developed only in the paper, petroleum, and chemical industries. Only alcohol abuse control programs were commonly offered in the other types of industry. The size of the workforce in a plant partly dictated the level of occupational health services it offered but did not always account for all inter-industry variation. PMID:6419275

Occupational health services in South Carolina manufacturing plants: results of a survey.

PubMed

Chovil, A C; Alexander, G R; Gibson, J J; Altekruse, J M

1983-01-01

A mailed survey of occupational health and safety practices in industrial manufacturing plants with more than 50 employees was carried out in South Carolina, with a response rate of 60 percent. The responding plants represented 73 percent of the total workforce in the industries. Data were analyzed in relation to the types of industry as delineated by the Standard Industrial Code. Eighty-three percent of the responding plants (a percentage that represented more than 92 percent of the total workforce in the industries) had some arrangements for the medical or nursing care of employees. For the study, occupational health services were defined at three levels: basic (mandatory), secondary (beneficial to management), and tertiary (health promotion-preventive medicine). The basic services provided by most of the industries surveyed appeared to be adequate. Secondary services were well developed except in the apparel and lumber industries. Tertiary services, in terms of five selected preventive programs, were moderately developed only in the paper, petroleum, and chemical industries. Only alcohol abuse control programs were commonly offered in the other types of industry. The size of the workforce in a plant partly dictated the level of occupational health services it offered but did not always account for all inter-industry variation.

Assessing the Factors Associated With Iran's Intra-Industry Trade in Pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Yusefzadeh, Hassan; Hadian, Mohammad; Abolghasem Gorji, Hassan; Ghaderi, Hossein

2015-03-30

Pharmaceutical industry is a sensitive and profitable industry. If this industry wants to survive, it should be able to compete well in international markets. So, study of Iran's intra-industry trade (IIT) in pharmaceuticals is essential in order to identify competitiveness potential of country and boost export capability in the global arena. This study assessed the factors associated with Iran's intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals with the rest of the world during the 2001-2012 periods using seasonal time series data at the four-digit SITC level. The data was collected from Iran's pharmaceutical Statistics, World Bank and International Trade Center. Finally, we discussed a number of important policy recommendations to increase Iran's IIT in pharmaceuticals. The findings indicated that economies of scale, market structure and degree of economic development had a significantly positive impact on Iran's intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals and tariff trade barriers were negatively related to IIT. Product differentiation and technological advancement didn't have the expected signs. In addition, we found that Iran's IIT in pharmaceuticals have shown an increasing trend during the study period. Thus, the composition of Iran trade in pharmaceuticals has changed from inter-industry trade to intra-industry trade. In order to get more prepared for integration into the global economy, the development of Iran's IIT in pharmaceuticals should be given priority. Therefore, paying attention to IIT could have an important role in serving pharmaceutical companies in relation to pharmaceutical trade.

Alternative industrial carbon emissions benchmark based on input-output analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Mengyao; Ji, Xi

2016-12-01

Some problems exist in the current carbon emissions benchmark setting systems. The primary consideration for industrial carbon emissions standards highly relate to direct carbon emissions (power-related emissions) and only a portion of indirect emissions are considered in the current carbon emissions accounting processes. This practice is insufficient and may cause double counting to some extent due to mixed emission sources. To better integrate and quantify direct and indirect carbon emissions, an embodied industrial carbon emissions benchmark setting method is proposed to guide the establishment of carbon emissions benchmarks based on input-output analysis. This method attempts to link direct carbon emissions with inter-industrial economic exchanges and systematically quantifies carbon emissions embodied in total product delivery chains. The purpose of this study is to design a practical new set of embodied intensity-based benchmarks for both direct and indirect carbon emissions. Beijing, at the first level of carbon emissions trading pilot schemes in China, plays a significant role in the establishment of these schemes and is chosen as an example in this study. The newly proposed method tends to relate emissions directly to each responsibility in a practical way through the measurement of complex production and supply chains and reduce carbon emissions from their original sources. This method is expected to be developed under uncertain internal and external contexts and is further expected to be generalized to guide the establishment of industrial benchmarks for carbon emissions trading schemes in China and other countries.

Assessing the Factors Associated With Iran’s Intra-Industry Trade in Pharmaceuticals

PubMed Central

Yusefzadeh, Hassan; Hadian, Mohammad; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Ghaderi, Hossein

2015-01-01

Background: Pharmaceutical industry is a sensitive and profitable industry. If this industry wants to survive, it should be able to compete well in international markets. So, study of Iran’s intra-industry trade (IIT) in pharmaceuticals is essential in order to identify competitiveness potential of country and boost export capability in the global arena. Methods: This study assessed the factors associated with Iran’s intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals with the rest of the world during the 2001–2012 periods using seasonal time series data at the four-digit SITC level. The data was collected from Iran’s pharmaceutical Statistics, World Bank and International Trade Center. Finally, we discussed a number of important policy recommendations to increase Iran’s IIT in pharmaceuticals. Results: The findings indicated that economies of scale, market structure and degree of economic development had a significantly positive impact on Iran’s intra-industry trade in pharmaceuticals and tariff trade barriers were negatively related to IIT. Product differentiation and technological advancement didn’t have the expected signs. In addition, we found that Iran’s IIT in pharmaceuticals have shown an increasing trend during the study period. Thus, the composition of Iran trade in pharmaceuticals has changed from inter-industry trade to intra-industry trade. Conclusions: In order to get more prepared for integration into the global economy, the development of Iran’s IIT in pharmaceuticals should be given priority. Therefore, paying attention to IIT could have an important role in serving pharmaceutical companies in relation to pharmaceutical trade. PMID:26156931

Using Parameter Constraints to Choose State Structures in Cost-Effectiveness Modelling.

PubMed

Thom, Howard; Jackson, Chris; Welton, Nicky; Sharples, Linda

2017-09-01

This article addresses the choice of state structure in a cost-effectiveness multi-state model. Key model outputs, such as treatment recommendations and prioritisation of future research, may be sensitive to state structure choice. For example, it may be uncertain whether to consider similar disease severities or similar clinical events as the same state or as separate states. Standard statistical methods for comparing models require a common reference dataset but merging states in a model aggregates the data, rendering these methods invalid. We propose a method that involves re-expressing a model with merged states as a model on the larger state space in which particular transition probabilities, costs and utilities are constrained to be equal between states. This produces a model that gives identical estimates of cost effectiveness to the model with merged states, while leaving the data unchanged. The comparison of state structures can be achieved by comparing maximised likelihoods or information criteria between constrained and unconstrained models. We can thus test whether the costs and/or health consequences for a patient in two states are the same, and hence if the states can be merged. We note that different structures can be used for rates, costs and utilities, as appropriate. We illustrate our method with applications to two recent models evaluating the cost effectiveness of prescribing anti-depressant medications by depression severity and the cost effectiveness of diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease. State structures in cost-effectiveness models can be compared using standard methods to compare constrained and unconstrained models.

Rate heterogeneity across Squamata, misleading ancestral state reconstruction and the importance of proper null model specification.

PubMed

Harrington, S; Reeder, T W

2017-02-01

The binary-state speciation and extinction (BiSSE) model has been used in many instances to identify state-dependent diversification and reconstruct ancestral states. However, recent studies have shown that the standard procedure of comparing the fit of the BiSSE model to constant-rate birth-death models often inappropriately favours the BiSSE model when diversification rates vary in a state-independent fashion. The newly developed HiSSE model enables researchers to identify state-dependent diversification rates while accounting for state-independent diversification at the same time. The HiSSE model also allows researchers to test state-dependent models against appropriate state-independent null models that have the same number of parameters as the state-dependent models being tested. We reanalyse two data sets that originally used BiSSE to reconstruct ancestral states within squamate reptiles and reached surprising conclusions regarding the evolution of toepads within Gekkota and viviparity across Squamata. We used this new method to demonstrate that there are many shifts in diversification rates across squamates. We then fit various HiSSE submodels and null models to the state and phylogenetic data and reconstructed states under these models. We found that there is no single, consistent signal for state-dependent diversification associated with toepads in gekkotans or viviparity across all squamates. Our reconstructions show limited support for the recently proposed hypotheses that toepads evolved multiple times independently in Gekkota and that transitions from viviparity to oviparity are common in Squamata. Our results highlight the importance of considering an adequate pool of models and null models when estimating diversification rate parameters and reconstructing ancestral states. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

State Analysis Database Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasmussen, Robert; Bennett, Matthew

2006-01-01

The State Analysis Database Tool software establishes a productive environment for collaboration among software and system engineers engaged in the development of complex interacting systems. The tool embodies State Analysis, a model-based system engineering methodology founded on a state-based control architecture (see figure). A state represents a momentary condition of an evolving system, and a model may describe how a state evolves and is affected by other states. The State Analysis methodology is a process for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models and states, and defining goal-based operational plans consistent with the models. Requirements, models, and operational concerns have traditionally been documented in a variety of system engineering artifacts that address different aspects of a mission s lifecycle. In State Analysis, requirements, models, and operations information are State Analysis artifacts that are consistent and stored in a State Analysis Database. The tool includes a back-end database, a multi-platform front-end client, and Web-based administrative functions. The tool is structured to prompt an engineer to follow the State Analysis methodology, to encourage state discovery and model description, and to make software requirements and operations plans consistent with model descriptions.

Categorical QSAR models for skin sensitization based on local lymph node assay measures and both ground and excited state 4D-fingerprint descriptors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianzhong; Kern, Petra S.; Gerberick, G. Frank; Santos-Filho, Osvaldo A.; Esposito, Emilio X.; Hopfinger, Anton J.; Tseng, Yufeng J.

2008-06-01

In previous studies we have developed categorical QSAR models for predicting skin-sensitization potency based on 4D-fingerprint (4D-FP) descriptors and in vivo murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) measures. Only 4D-FP derived from the ground state (GMAX) structures of the molecules were used to build the QSAR models. In this study we have generated 4D-FP descriptors from the first excited state (EMAX) structures of the molecules. The GMAX, EMAX and the combined ground and excited state 4D-FP descriptors (GEMAX) were employed in building categorical QSAR models. Logistic regression (LR) and partial least square coupled logistic regression (PLS-CLR), found to be effective model building for the LLNA skin-sensitization measures in our previous studies, were used again in this study. This also permitted comparison of the prior ground state models to those involving first excited state 4D-FP descriptors. Three types of categorical QSAR models were constructed for each of the GMAX, EMAX and GEMAX datasets: a binary model (2-state), an ordinal model (3-state) and a binary-binary model (two-2-state). No significant differences exist among the LR 2-state model constructed for each of the three datasets. However, the PLS-CLR 3-state and 2-state models based on the EMAX and GEMAX datasets have higher predictivity than those constructed using only the GMAX dataset. These EMAX and GMAX categorical models are also more significant and predictive than corresponding models built in our previous QSAR studies of LLNA skin-sensitization measures.

Joint estimation over multiple individuals improves behavioural state inference from animal movement data.

PubMed

Jonsen, Ian

2016-02-08

State-space models provide a powerful way to scale up inference of movement behaviours from individuals to populations when the inference is made across multiple individuals. Here, I show how a joint estimation approach that assumes individuals share identical movement parameters can lead to improved inference of behavioural states associated with different movement processes. I use simulated movement paths with known behavioural states to compare estimation error between nonhierarchical and joint estimation formulations of an otherwise identical state-space model. Behavioural state estimation error was strongly affected by the degree of similarity between movement patterns characterising the behavioural states, with less error when movements were strongly dissimilar between states. The joint estimation model improved behavioural state estimation relative to the nonhierarchical model for simulated data with heavy-tailed Argos location errors. When applied to Argos telemetry datasets from 10 Weddell seals, the nonhierarchical model estimated highly uncertain behavioural state switching probabilities for most individuals whereas the joint estimation model yielded substantially less uncertainty. The joint estimation model better resolved the behavioural state sequences across all seals. Hierarchical or joint estimation models should be the preferred choice for estimating behavioural states from animal movement data, especially when location data are error-prone.

Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

2017-10-01

A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

State Education Governance Structures: 2017 Update. 50-State Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Railey, Hunter

2017-01-01

This 50-State Review provides an overview of governance structures in the states, as well as implications for practice, deep dives into four governance models and examples of other governance models. One appendix, State Education Governance Models by State, is included.

State-to-state models of vibrational relaxation in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oblapenko, G. P.; Kashkovsky, A. V.; Bondar, Ye A.

2017-02-01

In the present work, the application of state-to-state models of vibrational energy exchanges to the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) is considered. A state-to-state model for VT transitions of vibrational energy in nitrogen and oxygen, based on the application of the inverse Laplace transform to results of quasiclassical trajectory calculations (QCT) of vibrational energy transitions, along with the Forced Harmonic Oscillator (FHO) state-to-state model is implemented in DSMC code and applied to flows around blunt bodies. Comparisons are made with the widely used Larsen-Borgnakke model and the in uence of multi-quantum VT transitions is assessed.

Practical Application of Model-based Programming and State-based Architecture to Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, Gregory; Ingham, Michel; Chung, Seung; Martin, Oliver; Williams, Brian

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation to develop models from systems engineers that accomplish mission objectives and manage the health of the system is shown. The topics include: 1) Overview; 2) Motivation; 3) Objective/Vision; 4) Approach; 5) Background: The Mission Data System; 6) Background: State-based Control Architecture System; 7) Background: State Analysis; 8) Overview of State Analysis; 9) Background: MDS Software Frameworks; 10) Background: Model-based Programming; 10) Background: Titan Model-based Executive; 11) Model-based Execution Architecture; 12) Compatibility Analysis of MDS and Titan Architectures; 13) Integrating Model-based Programming and Execution into the Architecture; 14) State Analysis and Modeling; 15) IMU Subsystem State Effects Diagram; 16) Titan Subsystem Model: IMU Health; 17) Integrating Model-based Programming and Execution into the Software IMU; 18) Testing Program; 19) Computationally Tractable State Estimation & Fault Diagnosis; 20) Diagnostic Algorithm Performance; 21) Integration and Test Issues; 22) Demonstrated Benefits; and 23) Next Steps

The Impact of State Legislation and Model Policies on Bullying in Schools.

PubMed

Terry, Amanda

2018-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of the coverage of state legislation and the expansiveness ratings of state model policies on the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. The state-level prevalence of bullying in schools was based on cross-sectional data from the 2013 High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Multiple regression was conducted to determine whether the coverage of state legislation and the expansiveness rating of a state model policy affected the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. The purpose and definition category of components in state legislation and the expansiveness rating of a state model policy were statistically significant predictors of the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. The other 3 categories of components in state legislation-District Policy Development and Review, District Policy Components, and Additional Components-were not statistically significant predictors in the model. Extensive coverage in the purpose and definition category of components in state legislation and a high expansiveness rating of a state model policy may be important in efforts to reduce bullying in schools. Improving these areas may reduce the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. © 2018, American School Health Association.

Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2009-07-01

In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

An Ab Initio Exciton Model Including Charge-Transfer Excited States.

PubMed

Li, Xin; Parrish, Robert M; Liu, Fang; Kokkila Schumacher, Sara I L; Martínez, Todd J

2017-08-08

The Frenkel exciton model is a useful tool for theoretical studies of multichromophore systems. We recently showed that the exciton model could be used to coarse-grain electronic structure in multichromophoric systems, focusing on singly excited exciton states [ Acc. Chem. Res. 2014 , 47 , 2857 - 2866 ]. However, our previous implementation excluded charge-transfer excited states, which can play an important role in light-harvesting systems and near-infrared optoelectronic materials. Recent studies have also emphasized the significance of charge-transfer in singlet fission, which mediates the coupling between the locally excited states and the multiexcitonic states. In this work, we report on an ab initio exciton model that incorporates charge-transfer excited states and demonstrate that the model provides correct charge-transfer excitation energies and asymptotic behavior. Comparison with TDDFT and EOM-CC2 calculations shows that our exciton model is robust with respect to system size, screening parameter, and different density functionals. Inclusion of charge-transfer excited states makes the exciton model more useful for studies of singly excited states and provides a starting point for future construction of a model that also includes double-exciton states.

Model Act for State Licensure of Psychologists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Psychologist, 2011

2011-01-01

As APA policy, the Model Act for State Licensure of Psychologists serves as a prototype for drafting state legislation regulating the practice of psychology. State legislatures are encouraged to use the language of this document and the policies that it espouses as the model for their own state licensure laws. Inevitably each state law will…

Zero-state Markov switching count-data models: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2010-01-01

In this study, a two-state Markov switching count-data model is proposed as an alternative to zero-inflated models to account for the preponderance of zeros sometimes observed in transportation count data, such as the number of accidents occurring on a roadway segment over some period of time. For this accident-frequency case, zero-inflated models assume the existence of two states: one of the states is a zero-accident count state, which has accident probabilities that are so low that they cannot be statistically distinguished from zero, and the other state is a normal-count state, in which counts can be non-negative integers that are generated by some counting process, for example, a Poisson or negative binomial. While zero-inflated models have come under some criticism with regard to accident-frequency applications - one fact is undeniable - in many applications they provide a statistically superior fit to the data. The Markov switching approach we propose seeks to overcome some of the criticism associated with the zero-accident state of the zero-inflated model by allowing individual roadway segments to switch between zero and normal-count states over time. An important advantage of this Markov switching approach is that it allows for the direct statistical estimation of the specific roadway-segment state (i.e., zero-accident or normal-count state) whereas traditional zero-inflated models do not. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, a two-state Markov switching negative binomial model (estimated with Bayesian inference) and standard zero-inflated negative binomial models are estimated using five-year accident frequencies on Indiana interstate highway segments. It is shown that the Markov switching model is a viable alternative and results in a superior statistical fit relative to the zero-inflated models.

Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

PubMed

Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2016-08-01

This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-nucleon high-spin states, the Bansal-French model and the crude shell model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Tsan Ung

1987-08-01

Recent data on two-nucleon stretched high-spin states agree well with the crude shell model predictions. For two-neutron high-spin states, the A and T linear dependence of B2n in the Bansal-French model can be deduced from the A and T linear dependence of Bn and the crude shell model. 7-2 states in some Zn and Ge even nuclei might be two-proton states. This hypothesis should be confirmed by two-proton transfer reaction.

An Ab Initio Exciton Model Including Charge-Transfer Excited States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xin; Parrish, Robert M.; Liu, Fang

Here, the Frenkel exciton model is a useful tool for theoretical studies of multichromophore systems. We recently showed that the exciton model could be used to coarse-grain electronic structure in multichromophoric systems, focusing on singly excited exciton states. However, our previous implementation excluded charge-transfer excited states, which can play an important role in light-harvesting systems and near-infrared optoelectronic materials. Recent studies have also emphasized the significance of charge-transfer in singlet fission, which mediates the coupling between the locally excited states and the multiexcitonic states. In this work, we report on an ab initio exciton model that incorporates charge-transfer excited statesmore » and demonstrate that the model provides correct charge-transfer excitation energies and asymptotic behavior. Comparison with TDDFT and EOM-CC2 calculations shows that our exciton model is robust with respect to system size, screening parameter, and different density functionals. Inclusion of charge-transfer excited states makes the exciton model more useful for studies of singly excited states and provides a starting point for future construction of a model that also includes double-exciton states.« less

An Ab Initio Exciton Model Including Charge-Transfer Excited States

DOE PAGES

Li, Xin; Parrish, Robert M.; Liu, Fang; ...

2017-06-15

Here, the Frenkel exciton model is a useful tool for theoretical studies of multichromophore systems. We recently showed that the exciton model could be used to coarse-grain electronic structure in multichromophoric systems, focusing on singly excited exciton states. However, our previous implementation excluded charge-transfer excited states, which can play an important role in light-harvesting systems and near-infrared optoelectronic materials. Recent studies have also emphasized the significance of charge-transfer in singlet fission, which mediates the coupling between the locally excited states and the multiexcitonic states. In this work, we report on an ab initio exciton model that incorporates charge-transfer excited statesmore » and demonstrate that the model provides correct charge-transfer excitation energies and asymptotic behavior. Comparison with TDDFT and EOM-CC2 calculations shows that our exciton model is robust with respect to system size, screening parameter, and different density functionals. Inclusion of charge-transfer excited states makes the exciton model more useful for studies of singly excited states and provides a starting point for future construction of a model that also includes double-exciton states.« less

Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

Two-nucleon high-spin states, the Bansal-French model and the crude shell model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, T.U.

Recent data on two-nucleon stretched high-spin states agree well with the crude shell model predictions. For two-neutron high-spin states, the A and T linear dependence of B/sub 2n/ in the Bansal-French model can be deduced from the A and T linear dependence of B/sub n/ and the crude shell model. 7/sub 2//sup -/ states in some Zn and Ge even nuclei might be two-proton states. This hypothesis should be confirmed by two-proton transfer reaction.

Targeting excited states in all-trans polyenes with electron-pair states.

PubMed

Boguslawski, Katharina

2016-12-21

Wavefunctions restricted to electron pair states are promising models for strongly correlated systems. Specifically, the pair Coupled Cluster Doubles (pCCD) ansatz allows us to accurately describe bond dissociation processes and heavy-element containing compounds with multiple quasi-degenerate single-particle states. Here, we extend the pCCD method to model excited states using the equation of motion (EOM) formalism. As the cluster operator of pCCD is restricted to electron-pair excitations, EOM-pCCD allows us to target excited electron-pair states only. To model singly excited states within EOM-pCCD, we modify the configuration interaction ansatz of EOM-pCCD to contain also single excitations. Our proposed model represents a simple and cost-effective alternative to conventional EOM-CC methods to study singly excited electronic states. The performance of the excited state models is assessed against the lowest-lying excited states of the uranyl cation and the two lowest-lying excited states of all-trans polyenes. Our numerical results suggest that EOM-pCCD including single excitations is a good starting point to target singly excited states.

Select strengths and biases of models in representing the Arctic winter boundary layer over sea ice: the Larcform 1 single column model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pithan, Felix; Ackerman, Andrew; Angevine, Wayne M.; Hartung, Kerstin; Ickes, Luisa; Kelley, Maxwell; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan; Sterk, H. A. M.; Svensson, Gunilla; Vaillancourt, Paul A.; Zadra, Ayrton

2016-09-01

Weather and climate models struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Arctic winter, partly because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. Observations have revealed two preferred states of the Arctic winter boundary layer. In the cloudy state, cloud liquid water limits surface radiative cooling, and temperature inversions are weak and elevated. In the radiatively clear state, strong surface radiative cooling leads to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions. Many large-scale models lack the cloudy state, and some substantially underestimate inversion strength in the clear state. Here, the transformation from a moist to a cold dry air mass is modeled using an idealized Lagrangian perspective. The trajectory includes both boundary layer states, and the single-column experiment is the first Lagrangian Arctic air formation experiment (Larcform 1) organized within GEWEX GASS (Global atmospheric system studies). The intercomparison reproduces the typical biases of large-scale models: some models lack the cloudy state of the boundary layer due to the representation of mixed-phase microphysics or to the interaction between micro- and macrophysics. In some models, high emissivities of ice clouds or the lack of an insulating snow layer prevent the build-up of surface-based inversions in the radiatively clear state. Models substantially disagree on the amount of cloud liquid water in the cloudy state and on turbulent heat fluxes under clear skies. Observations of air mass transformations including both boundary layer states would allow for a tighter constraint of model behavior.

Performance on perceptual word identification is mediated by discrete states.

PubMed

Swagman, April R; Province, Jordan M; Rouder, Jeffrey N

2015-02-01

We contrast predictions from discrete-state models of all-or-none information loss with signal-detection models of graded strength for the identification of briefly flashed English words. Previous assessments have focused on whether ROC curves are straight or not, which is a test of a discrete-state model where detection leads to the highest confidence response with certainty. We along with many others argue this certainty assumption is too constraining, and, consequently, the straight-line ROC test is too stringent. Instead, we assess a core property of discrete-state models, conditional independence, where the pattern of responses depends only on which state is entered. The conditional independence property implies that confidence ratings are a mixture of detect and guess state responses, and that stimulus strength factors, the duration of the flashed word in this report, affect only the probability of entering a state and not responses conditional on a state. To assess this mixture property, 50 participants saw words presented briefly on a computer screen at three variable flash durations followed by either a two-alternative confidence ratings task or a yes-no confidence ratings task. Comparable discrete-state and signal-detection models were fit to the data for each participant and task. The discrete-state models outperformed the signal detection models for 90 % of participants in the two-alternative task and for 68 % of participants in the yes-no task. We conclude discrete-state models are viable for predicting performance across stimulus conditions in a perceptual word identification task.

A Rigorous Investigation on the Ground State of the Penson-Kolb Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kai-Hua; Tian, Guang-Shan; Han, Ru-Qi

2003-05-01

By using either numerical calculations or analytical methods, such as the bosonization technique, the ground state of the Penson-Kolb model has been previously studied by several groups. Some physicists argued that, as far as the existence of superconductivity in this model is concerned, it is canonically equivalent to the negative-U Hubbard model. However, others did not agree. In the present paper, we shall investigate this model by an independent and rigorous approach. We show that the ground state of the Penson-Kolb model is nondegenerate and has a nonvanishing overlap with the ground state of the negative-U Hubbard model. Furthermore, we also show that the ground states of both the models have the same good quantum numbers and may have superconducting long-range order at the same momentum q = 0. Our results support the equivalence between these models. The project partially supported by the Special Funds for Major State Basic Research Projects (G20000365) and National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 10174002

An evaluation of behavior inferences from Bayesian state-space models: A case study with the Pacific walrus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beatty, William; Jay, Chadwick V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.

2016-01-01

State-space models offer researchers an objective approach to modeling complex animal location data sets, and state-space model behavior classifications are often assumed to have a link to animal behavior. In this study, we evaluated the behavioral classification accuracy of a Bayesian state-space model in Pacific walruses using Argos satellite tags with sensors to detect animal behavior in real time. We fit a two-state discrete-time continuous-space Bayesian state-space model to data from 306 Pacific walruses tagged in the Chukchi Sea. We matched predicted locations and behaviors from the state-space model (resident, transient behavior) to true animal behavior (foraging, swimming, hauled out) and evaluated classification accuracy with kappa statistics (κ) and root mean square error (RMSE). In addition, we compared biased random bridge utilization distributions generated with resident behavior locations to true foraging behavior locations to evaluate differences in space use patterns. Results indicated that the two-state model fairly classified true animal behavior (0.06 ≤ κ ≤ 0.26, 0.49 ≤ RMSE ≤ 0.59). Kernel overlap metrics indicated utilization distributions generated with resident behavior locations were generally smaller than utilization distributions generated with true foraging behavior locations. Consequently, we encourage researchers to carefully examine parameters and priors associated with behaviors in state-space models, and reconcile these parameters with the study species and its expected behaviors.

Public health insurance under a nonbenevolent state.

PubMed

Lemieux, Pierre

2008-10-01

This paper explores the consequences of the oft ignored fact that public health insurance must actually be supplied by the state. Depending how the state is modeled, different health insurance outcomes are expected. The benevolent model of the state does not account for many actual features of public health insurance systems. One alternative is to use a standard public choice model, where state action is determined by interaction between self-interested actors. Another alternative--related to a strand in public choice theory--is to model the state as Leviathan. Interestingly, some proponents of public health insurance use an implicit Leviathan model, but not consistently. The Leviathan model of the state explains many features of public health insurance: its uncontrolled growth, its tendency toward monopoly, its capacity to buy trust and loyalty from the common people, its surveillance ability, its controlling nature, and even the persistence of its inefficiencies and waiting lines.

State-space reduction and equivalence class sampling for a molecular self-assembly model.

PubMed

Packwood, Daniel M; Han, Patrick; Hitosugi, Taro

2016-07-01

Direct simulation of a model with a large state space will generate enormous volumes of data, much of which is not relevant to the questions under study. In this paper, we consider a molecular self-assembly model as a typical example of a large state-space model, and present a method for selectively retrieving 'target information' from this model. This method partitions the state space into equivalence classes, as identified by an appropriate equivalence relation. The set of equivalence classes H, which serves as a reduced state space, contains none of the superfluous information of the original model. After construction and characterization of a Markov chain with state space H, the target information is efficiently retrieved via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. This approach represents a new breed of simulation techniques which are highly optimized for studying molecular self-assembly and, moreover, serves as a valuable guideline for analysis of other large state-space models.

Inference for finite-sample trajectories in dynamic multi-state site-occupancy models using hidden Markov model smoothing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, Ian J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Gross, Kevin

2014-01-01

Ecologists and wildlife biologists increasingly use latent variable models to study patterns of species occurrence when detection is imperfect. These models have recently been generalized to accommodate both a more expansive description of state than simple presence or absence, and Markovian dynamics in the latent state over successive sampling seasons. In this paper, we write these multi-season, multi-state models as hidden Markov models to find both maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters and finite-sample estimators of the trajectory of the latent state over time. These estimators are especially useful for characterizing population trends in species of conservation concern. We also develop parametric bootstrap procedures that allow formal inference about latent trend. We examine model behavior through simulation, and we apply the model to data from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program.

Multi-temperature model derived from state-to-state kinetics for hypersonic entry in Jupiter atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colonna, G.; D'Ambrosio, D.; D'Ammando, G.; Pietanza, L. D.; Capitelli, M.

2014-12-01

A state-to-state model of H2/He plasmas coupling the master equations for internal distributions of heavy species with the transport equation for the free electrons has been used as a basis for implementing a multi-temperature kinetic model. In the multi-temperature model internal distributions of heavy particles are Boltzmann, the electron energy distribution function is Maxwell, and the rate coefficients of the elementary processes become a function of local temperatures associated to the relevant equilibrium distributions. The state-to-state and multi-temperature models have been compared in the case of a homogenous recombining plasma, reproducing the conditions met during supersonic expansion though converging-diverging nozzles.

Reliability and availability modeling of coupled communication networks - A simplified modeling approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shooman, Martin L.; Cortes, Eladio R.

1991-01-01

The network-complexity of LANs and of LANs that are interconnected by bridges and routers poses a challenging reliability-modeling problem. The present effort toward these problems' solution attempts to simplify them by reducing their number of states through truncation and state merging, as suggested by Shooman and Laemmel (1990). Through the use of state merging, it becomes possible to reduce the Bateman-Cortes 161 state model to a two state model with a closed-form solution. In the case of coupled networks, a technique which allows for problem-decomposition must be used.

Capturing the state transitions of seizure-like events using Hidden Markov models.

PubMed

Guirgis, Mirna; Serletis, Demitre; Carlen, Peter L; Bardakjian, Berj L

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the number of states present in the progression of a seizure-like event (SLE). Of particular interest is to determine if there are more than two clearly defined states, as this would suggest that there is a distinct state preceding an SLE. Whole-intact hippocampus from C57/BL mice was used to model epileptiform activity induced by the perfusion of a low Mg(2+)/high K(+) solution while extracellular field potentials were recorded from CA3 pyramidal neurons. Hidden Markov models (HMM) were used to model the state transitions of the recorded SLEs by incorporating various features of the Hilbert transform into the training algorithm; specifically, 2- and 3-state HMMs were explored. Although the 2-state model was able to distinguish between SLE and nonSLE behavior, it provided no improvements compared to visual inspection alone. However, the 3-state model was able to capture two distinct nonSLE states that visual inspection failed to discriminate. Moreover, by developing an HMM based system a priori knowledge of the state transitions was not required making this an ideal platform for seizure prediction algorithms.

Boundary States and Broken Bulk Symmetries in WAr Minimal Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Alexandre F.; Wheater, J. F.

We review the free-field formalism for boundary states. The multi-component free-field formalism is then used to study the boundary states of (p',p) rational conformal field theories having a W symmetry of the type Ar. We show how the classification of primary fields for these models is obtained by demanding modular covariance of cylinder amplitudes and that the resulting modular S matrix satisfies all the necessary conditions. Basis states satisfying the boundary conditions are found in the form of coherent states and as expected we find that W violating states can be found for all these models. We construct consistent physical boundary states for all the rank 2 (p + 1,p) models (of which the already known case of the 3-state Potts model is the simplest example) and find that the W violating sector possesses a direct analogue of the Verlinde formula.

Chiral helimagnetic state in a Kondo lattice model with the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okumura, Shun; Kato, Yasuyuki; Motome, Yukitoshi

2018-05-01

Monoaxial chiral magnets can form a noncollinear twisted spin structure called the chiral helimagnetic state. We study magnetic properties of such a chiral helimagnetic state, with emphasis on the effect of itinerant electrons. Modeling a monoaxial chiral helimagnet by a one-dimensional Kondo lattice model with the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction, we perform a variational calculation to elucidate the stable spin configuration in the ground state. We obtain a chiral helimagnetic state as a candidate for the ground state, whose helical pitch is modulated by the model parameters: the Kondo coupling, the Dzyaloshinski-Moriya interaction, and electron filling.

Model reduction in a subset of the original states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yae, K. H.; Inman, D. J.

1992-01-01

A model reduction method is investigated to provide a smaller structural dynamic model for subsequent structural control design. A structural dynamic model is assumed to be derived from finite element analysis. It is first converted into the state space form, and is further reduced by the internal balancing method. Through the co-ordinate transformation derived from the states that are deleted during reduction, the reduced model is finally expressed with the states that are members of the original states. Therefore, the states in the final reduced model represent the degrees of freedom of the nodes that are selected by the designer. The procedure provides a more practical implementation of model reduction for applications in which specific nodes, such as sensor and/or actuator attachment points, are to be retained in the reduced model. Thus, it ensures that the reduced model is under the same input and output condition as the original physical model. The procedure is applied to two simple examples and comparisons are made between the full and reduced order models. The method can be applied to a linear, continuous and time-invariant model of structural dynamics with nonproportional viscous damping.

Select strengths and biases of models in representing the Arctic winter boundary layer over sea ice: the Larcform 1 single column model intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Pithan, Felix; Ackerman, Andrew; Angevine, Wayne M.; ...

2016-08-27

We struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Artic winter using weather and climate models, partly because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. Observations have revealed two preferred states of the Arctic winter boundary layer. In the cloudy state, cloud liquid water limits surface radiative cooling, and temperature inversions are weak and elevated. In the radiatively clear state, strong surface radiative cooling leads to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions. Many large-scale models lack the cloudy state, and some substantially underestimate inversion strength in the clear state. Themore » transformation from a moist to a cold dry air mass is modeled using an idealized Lagrangian perspective. The trajectory includes both boundary layer states, and the single-column experiment is the first Lagrangian Arctic air formation experiment (Larcform 1) organized within GEWEX GASS (Global atmospheric system studies). The intercomparison reproduces the typical biases of large-scale models: some models lack the cloudy state of the boundary layer due to the representation of mixed-phase microphysics or to the interaction between micro- and macrophysics. In some models, high emissivities of ice clouds or the lack of an insulating snow layer prevent the build-up of surface-based inversions in the radiatively clear state. Models substantially disagree on the amount of cloud liquid water in the cloudy state and on turbulent heat fluxes under clear skies. Finally, observations of air mass transformations including both boundary layer states would allow for a tighter constraint of model behavior.« less

Select strengths and biases of models in representing the Arctic winter boundary layer over sea ice: the Larcform 1 single column model intercomparison

PubMed Central

Pithan, Felix; Ackerman, Andrew; Angevine, Wayne M.; Hartung, Kerstin; Ickes, Luisa; Kelley, Maxwell; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan; Sterk, HAM; Svensson, Gunilla; Vaillancourt, Paul A.; Zadra, Ayrton

2017-01-01

Weather and climate models struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Arctic winter, partly because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. Observations have revealed two preferred states of the Arctic winter boundary layer. In the cloudy state, cloud liquid water limits surface radiative cooling, and temperature inversions are weak and elevated. In the radiatively clear state, strong surface radiative cooling leads to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions. Many large-scale models lack the cloudy state, and some substantially underestimate inversion strength in the clear state. Here, the transformation from a moist to a cold dry air mass is modelled using an idealized Lagrangian perspective. The trajectory includes both boundary layer states, and the single-column experiment is the first Lagrangian Arctic air formation experiment (Larcform 1) organized within GEWEX GASS (Global atmospheric system studies). The intercomparison reproduces the typical biases of large-scale models: Some models lack the cloudy state of the boundary layer due to the representation of mixed-phase micro-physics or to the interaction between micro-and macrophysics. In some models, high emissivities of ice clouds or the lack of an insulating snow layer prevent the build-up of surface-based inversions in the radiatively clear state. Models substantially disagree on the amount of cloud liquid water in the cloudy state and on turbulent heat fluxes under clear skies. Observations of air mass transformations including both boundary layer states would allow for a tighter constraint of model behaviour. PMID:28966718

Select strengths and biases of models in representing the Arctic winter boundary layer over sea ice: the Larcform 1 single column model intercomparison.

PubMed

Pithan, Felix; Ackerman, Andrew; Angevine, Wayne M; Hartung, Kerstin; Ickes, Luisa; Kelley, Maxwell; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan; Sterk, Ham; Svensson, Gunilla; Vaillancourt, Paul A; Zadra, Ayrton

2016-09-01

Weather and climate models struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Arctic winter, partly because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. Observations have revealed two preferred states of the Arctic winter boundary layer. In the cloudy state, cloud liquid water limits surface radiative cooling, and temperature inversions are weak and elevated. In the radiatively clear state, strong surface radiative cooling leads to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions. Many large-scale models lack the cloudy state, and some substantially underestimate inversion strength in the clear state. Here, the transformation from a moist to a cold dry air mass is modelled using an idealized Lagrangian perspective. The trajectory includes both boundary layer states, and the single-column experiment is the first L agrangian Arc tic air form ation experiment (Larcform 1) organized within GEWEX GASS (Global atmospheric system studies). The intercomparison reproduces the typical biases of large-scale models: Some models lack the cloudy state of the boundary layer due to the representation of mixed-phase micro-physics or to the interaction between micro-and macrophysics. In some models, high emissivities of ice clouds or the lack of an insulating snow layer prevent the build-up of surface-based inversions in the radiatively clear state. Models substantially disagree on the amount of cloud liquid water in the cloudy state and on turbulent heat fluxes under clear skies. Observations of air mass transformations including both boundary layer states would allow for a tighter constraint of model behaviour.

A viable dark fluid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elkhateeb, Esraa

2018-01-01

We consider a cosmological model based on a generalization of the equation of state proposed by Nojiri and Odintsov (2004) and Štefančić (2005, 2006). We argue that this model works as a dark fluid model which can interpolate between dust equation of state and the dark energy equation of state. We show how the asymptotic behavior of the equation of state constrained the parameters of the model. The causality condition for the model is also studied to constrain the parameters and the fixed points are tested to determine different solution classes. Observations of Hubble diagram of SNe Ia supernovae are used to further constrain the model. We present an exact solution of the model and calculate the luminosity distance and the energy density evolution. We also calculate the deceleration parameter to test the state of the universe expansion.

Identified state-space prediction model for aero-optical wavefronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faghihi, Azin; Tesch, Jonathan; Gibson, Steve

2013-07-01

A state-space disturbance model and associated prediction filter for aero-optical wavefronts are described. The model is computed by system identification from a sequence of wavefronts measured in an airborne laboratory. Estimates of the statistics and flow velocity of the wavefront data are shown and can be computed from the matrices in the state-space model without returning to the original data. Numerical results compare velocity values and power spectra computed from the identified state-space model with those computed from the aero-optical data.

A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.

PubMed

Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

1996-11-01

Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing.

Theory of the decision/problem state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A theory of the decision-problem state was introduced and elaborated. Starting with the basic model of a decision-problem condition, an attempt was made to explain how a major decision-problem may consist of subsets of decision-problem conditions composing different condition sequences. In addition, the basic classical decision-tree model was modified to allow for the introduction of a series of characteristics that may be encountered in an analysis of a decision-problem state. The resulting hierarchical model reflects the unique attributes of the decision-problem state. The basic model of a decision-problem condition was used as a base to evolve a more complex model that is more representative of the decision-problem state and may be used to initiate research on decision-problem states.

A Self-Organizing Incremental Spatiotemporal Associative Memory Networks Model for Problems with Hidden State

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Identifying the hidden state is important for solving problems with hidden state. We prove any deterministic partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) can be represented by a minimal, looping hidden state transition model and propose a heuristic state transition model constructing algorithm. A new spatiotemporal associative memory network (STAMN) is proposed to realize the minimal, looping hidden state transition model. STAMN utilizes the neuroactivity decay to realize the short-term memory, connection weights between different nodes to represent long-term memory, presynaptic potentials, and synchronized activation mechanism to complete identifying and recalling simultaneously. Finally, we give the empirical illustrations of the STAMN and compare the performance of the STAMN model with that of other methods. PMID:27891146

Valuation of financial models with non-linear state spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Nick

2001-02-01

A common assumption in valuation models for derivative securities is that the underlying state variables take values in a linear state space. We discuss numerical implementation issues in an interest rate model with a simple non-linear state space, formulating and comparing Monte Carlo, finite difference and lattice numerical solution methods. We conclude that, at least in low dimensional spaces, non-linear interest rate models may be viable.

A method and implementation for incorporating heuristic knowledge into a state estimator through the use of a fuzzy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanson, Steven Roy

The objective of the dissertation is to improve state estimation performance, as compared to a Kalman filter, when non-constant, or changing, biases exist in the measurement data. The state estimation performance increase will come from the use of a fuzzy model to determine the position and velocity gains of a state estimator. A method is proposed for incorporating heuristic knowledge into a state estimator through the use of a fuzzy model. This method consists of using a fuzzy model to determine the gains of the state estimator, converting the heuristic knowledge into the fuzzy model, and then optimizing the fuzzy model with a genetic algorithm. This method is applied to the problem of state estimation of a cascaded global positioning system (GPS)/inertial reference unit (IRU) navigation system. The GPS position data contains two major sources for position bias. The first bias is due to satellite errors and the second is due to the time delay or lag from when the GPS position is calculated until it is used in the state estimator. When a change in the bias of the measurement data occurs, a state estimator will converge on the new measurement data solution. This will introduce errors into a Kalman filter's estimated state velocities, which in turn will cause a position overshoot as it converges. By using a fuzzy model to determine the gains of a state estimator, the velocity errors and their associated deficiencies can be reduced.

Estimating parameters of hidden Markov models based on marked individuals: use of robust design data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; White, Gary C.; Hines, James E.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Yoshizaki, Jun

2012-01-01

Development and use of multistate mark-recapture models, which provide estimates of parameters of Markov processes in the face of imperfect detection, have become common over the last twenty years. Recently, estimating parameters of hidden Markov models, where the state of an individual can be uncertain even when it is detected, has received attention. Previous work has shown that ignoring state uncertainty biases estimates of survival and state transition probabilities, thereby reducing the power to detect effects. Efforts to adjust for state uncertainty have included special cases and a general framework for a single sample per period of interest. We provide a flexible framework for adjusting for state uncertainty in multistate models, while utilizing multiple sampling occasions per period of interest to increase precision and remove parameter redundancy. These models also produce direct estimates of state structure for each primary period, even for the case where there is just one sampling occasion. We apply our model to expected value data, and to data from a study of Florida manatees, to provide examples of the improvement in precision due to secondary capture occasions. We also provide user-friendly software to implement these models. This general framework could also be used by practitioners to consider constrained models of particular interest, or model the relationship between within-primary period parameters (e.g., state structure) and between-primary period parameters (e.g., state transition probabilities).

A UML Profile for State Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murray, Alex; Rasmussen, Robert

2010-01-01

State Analysis is a systems engineering methodology for the specification and design of control systems, developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The methodology emphasizes an analysis of the system under control in terms of States and their properties and behaviors and their effects on each other, a clear separation of the control system from the controlled system, cognizance in the control system of the controlled system's State, goal-based control built on constraining the controlled system's States, and disciplined techniques for State discovery and characterization. State Analysis (SA) introduces two key diagram types: State Effects and Goal Network diagrams. The team at JPL developed a tool for performing State Analysis. The tool includes a drawing capability, backed by a database that supports the diagram types and the organization of the elements of the SA models. But the tool does not support the usual activities of software engineering and design - a disadvantage, since systems to which State Analysis can be applied tend to be very software-intensive. This motivated the work described in this paper: the development of a preliminary Unified Modeling Language (UML) profile for State Analysis. Having this profile would enable systems engineers to specify a system using the methods and graphical language of State Analysis, which is easily linked with a larger system model in SysML (Systems Modeling Language), while also giving software engineers engaged in implementing the specified control system immediate access to and use of the SA model, in the same language, UML, used for other software design. That is, a State Analysis profile would serve as a shared modeling bridge between system and software models for the behavior aspects of the system. This paper begins with an overview of State Analysis and its underpinnings, followed by an overview of the mapping of SA constructs to the UML metamodel. It then delves into the details of these mappings and the constraints associated with them. Finally, we give an example of the use of the profile for expressing an example SA model.

Periodic synchronization in a system of coupled phase oscillators with attractive and repulsive interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Di; Tian, Jun-Long; Lin, Fang; Ma, Dong-Wei; Zhang, Jing; Cui, Hai-Tao; Xiao, Yi

2018-06-01

In this study we investigate the collective behavior of the generalized Kuramoto model with an external pinning force in which oscillators with positive and negative coupling strengths are conformists and contrarians, respectively. We focus on a situation in which the natural frequencies of the oscillators follow a uniform probability density. By numerically simulating the model, it is shown that the model supports multistable synchronized states such as a traveling wave state, π state and periodic synchronous state: an oscillating π state. The oscillating π state may be characterized by the phase distribution oscillating in a confined region and the phase difference between conformists and contrarians oscillating around π periodically. In addition, we present the parameter space of the oscillating π state and traveling wave state of the model.

State Enterprise Zone Programs: Have They Worked?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Alan H.; Fisher, Peter S.

The effectiveness of state enterprise zone programs was examined by using a hypothetical-firm model called the Tax and Incentives Model-Enterprise Zones (TAIM-ez) model to analyze the value of enterprise zone incentives to businesses across the United States and especially in the 13 states that had substantial enterprise zone programs by 1990. The…

Mixture Distribution Latent State-Trait Analysis: Basic Ideas and Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Courvoisier, Delphine S.; Eid, Michael; Nussbeck, Fridtjof W.

2007-01-01

Extensions of latent state-trait models for continuous observed variables to mixture latent state-trait models with and without covariates of change are presented that can separate individuals differing in their occasion-specific variability. An empirical application to the repeated measurement of mood states (N = 501) revealed that a model with 2…

Modeling dyadic processes using Hidden Markov Models: A time series approach to mother-infant interactions during infant immunization.

PubMed

Stifter, Cynthia A; Rovine, Michael

2015-01-01

The focus of the present longitudinal study, to examine mother-infant interaction during the administration of immunizations at two and six months of age, used hidden Markov modeling, a time series approach that produces latent states to describe how mothers and infants work together to bring the infant to a soothed state. Results revealed a 4-state model for the dyadic responses to a two-month inoculation whereas a 6-state model best described the dyadic process at six months. Two of the states at two months and three of the states at six months suggested a progression from high intensity crying to no crying with parents using vestibular and auditory soothing methods. The use of feeding and/or pacifying to soothe the infant characterized one two-month state and two six-month states. These data indicate that with maturation and experience, the mother-infant dyad is becoming more organized around the soothing interaction. Using hidden Markov modeling to describe individual differences, as well as normative processes, is also presented and discussed.

Modeling dyadic processes using Hidden Markov Models: A time series approach to mother-infant interactions during infant immunization

PubMed Central

Stifter, Cynthia A.; Rovine, Michael

2016-01-01

The focus of the present longitudinal study, to examine mother-infant interaction during the administration of immunizations at two and six months of age, used hidden Markov modeling, a time series approach that produces latent states to describe how mothers and infants work together to bring the infant to a soothed state. Results revealed a 4-state model for the dyadic responses to a two-month inoculation whereas a 6-state model best described the dyadic process at six months. Two of the states at two months and three of the states at six months suggested a progression from high intensity crying to no crying with parents using vestibular and auditory soothing methods. The use of feeding and/or pacifying to soothe the infant characterized one two-month state and two six-month states. These data indicate that with maturation and experience, the mother-infant dyad is becoming more organized around the soothing interaction. Using hidden Markov modeling to describe individual differences, as well as normative processes, is also presented and discussed. PMID:27284272

Assessment of state measures of risk-appropriate care for very low birth weight infants and recommendations for enhancing regionalized state systems.

PubMed

Nowakowski, Lindsey; Barfield, Wanda D; Kroelinger, Charlan D; Lauver, Cassie B; Lawler, Michele H; White, Vanessa A; Ramos, Lauren Raskin

2012-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine state measurements and improvements in risk-appropriate care for very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. The authors reviewed state perinatal regionalization models and levels of care to compare varying definitions between states and assess mechanisms of measurement and areas for improvement. Seven states that presented at a 2009 Association of Maternal & Child Health Programs Perinatal Regionalization Meeting were included in the assessment. Information was gathered from meeting presentations, presenters, state representatives, and state websites. Comparison of state levels of care and forms of regulation were outlined. Review of state models revealed variability in the models themselves, as well as the various mechanisms for measuring and improving risk-appropriate care. Regulation of regionalization programs, data surveillance, review of adverse events, and consideration of geography and demographics were identified as mechanisms facilitating better measurement of risk-appropriate care. Antenatal or neonatal transfer arrangements, telemedicine networks, acquisition of funding, provision of financial incentives, and patient education comprised state actions for improving risk-appropriate care. The void of explicit and updated national standards led to the current variations in definitions and models among states. State regionalization models and measures of risk-appropriate care varied greatly. These variations arose from inconsistent definitions and models of perinatal regionalization. Guidelines should be collaboratively developed by healthcare providers and public health officials for consistent and suitable measures of perinatal risk-appropriate care.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

Do state-and-transition models derived from vegetation succession also represent avian succession in restored mine pits?

PubMed

Craig, Michael D; Stokes, Vicki L; Fontaine, Joseph B; Hardy, Giles E StJ; Grigg, Andrew H; Hobbs, Richard J

2015-10-01

State-and-transition models are increasingly used as a tool to inform management of post-disturbance succession and effective conservation of biodiversity in production landscapes. However, if they are to do this effectively, they need to represent faunal, as well as vegetation, succession. We assessed the congruence between vegetation and avian succession by sampling avian communities in each state of a state-and-transition model used to inform management of post-mining restoration in a production landscape in southwestern Australia. While avian communities differed significantly among states classified as on a desirable successional pathway, they did not differ between desirable and deviated states of the same post-mining age. Overall, we concluded there was poor congruence between vegetation and avian succession in this state-and-transition model. We identified four factors that likely contributed to this lack of congruence, which were that long-term monitoring of succession in restored mine pits was not used to update and improve models, states were not defined based on ecological processes and thresholds, states were not defined by criteria that were important in structuring the avian community, and states were not based on criteria that related to values in the reference community. We believe that consideration of these four factors in the development of state-and-transition models should improve their ability to accurately represent faunal, as well as vegetation, succession. Developing state-and-transition models that better incorporate patterns of faunal succession should improve the ability to manage post-disturbance succession across a range of ecosystems for biodiversity conservation.

Markov State Models of gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Chu, Brian K; Tse, Margaret J; Sato, Royce R; Read, Elizabeth L

2017-02-06

Gene regulatory networks with dynamics characterized by multiple stable states underlie cell fate-decisions. Quantitative models that can link molecular-level knowledge of gene regulation to a global understanding of network dynamics have the potential to guide cell-reprogramming strategies. Networks are often modeled by the stochastic Chemical Master Equation, but methods for systematic identification of key properties of the global dynamics are currently lacking. The method identifies the number, phenotypes, and lifetimes of long-lived states for a set of common gene regulatory network models. Application of transition path theory to the constructed Markov State Model decomposes global dynamics into a set of dominant transition paths and associated relative probabilities for stochastic state-switching. In this proof-of-concept study, we found that the Markov State Model provides a general framework for analyzing and visualizing stochastic multistability and state-transitions in gene networks. Our results suggest that this framework-adopted from the field of atomistic Molecular Dynamics-can be a useful tool for quantitative Systems Biology at the network scale.

Modeling SF-6D Hong Kong standard gamble health state preference data using a nonparametric Bayesian method.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Samer A; Brazier, John E; McGhee, Sarah

2013-01-01

This article reports on the findings from applying a recently described approach to modeling health state valuation data and the impact of the respondent characteristics on health state valuations. The approach applies a nonparametric model to estimate a Bayesian six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey) health state valuation algorithm. A sample of 197 states defined by the six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey)has been valued by a representative sample of the Hong Kong general population by using standard gamble. The article reports the application of the nonparametric model and compares it to the original model estimated by using a conventional parametric random effects model. The two models are compared theoretically and in terms of empirical performance. Advantages of the nonparametric model are that it can be used to predict scores in populations with different distributions of characteristics than observed in the survey sample and that it allows for the impact of respondent characteristics to vary by health state (while ensuring that full health passes through unity). The results suggest an important age effect with sex, having some effect, but the remaining covariates having no discernible effect. The nonparametric Bayesian model is argued to be more theoretically appropriate than previously used parametric models. Furthermore, it is more flexible to take into account the impact of covariates. Copyright © 2013, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dynamics from a mathematical model of a two-state gas laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleanthous, Antigoni; Hua, Tianshu; Manai, Alexandre; Yawar, Kamran; Van Gorder, Robert A.

2018-05-01

Motivated by recent work in the area, we consider the behavior of solutions to a nonlinear PDE model of a two-state gas laser. We first review the derivation of the two-state gas laser model, before deriving a non-dimensional model given in terms of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations. We then classify the steady states of this system, in order to determine the possible long-time asymptotic solutions to this model, as well as corresponding stability results, showing that the only uniform steady state (the zero motion state) is unstable, while a linear profile in space is stable. We then provide numerical simulations for the full unsteady model. We show for a wide variety of initial conditions that the solutions tend toward the stable linear steady state profiles. We also consider traveling wave solutions, and determine the unique wave speed (in terms of the other model parameters) which allows wave-like solutions to exist. Despite some similarities between the model and the inviscid Burger's equation, the solutions we obtain are much more regular than the solutions to the inviscid Burger's equation, with no evidence of shock formation or loss of regularity.

Quasi steady-state aerodynamic model development for race vehicle simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrfeld-Halterman, J. A.; Uddin, M.

2016-01-01

Presented in this paper is a procedure to develop a high fidelity quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for use in race car vehicle dynamic simulations. Developed to fit quasi steady-state wind tunnel data, the aerodynamic model is regressed against three independent variables: front ground clearance, rear ride height, and yaw angle. An initial dual range model is presented and then further refined to reduce the model complexity while maintaining a high level of predictive accuracy. The model complexity reduction decreases the required amount of wind tunnel data thereby reducing wind tunnel testing time and cost. The quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for the pitch moment degree of freedom is systematically developed in this paper. This same procedure can be extended to the other five aerodynamic degrees of freedom to develop a complete six degree of freedom quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for any vehicle.

A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.

PubMed Central

Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

1996-01-01

Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing. Images FIGURE 3 PMID:8913581

Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2002-01-01

Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.

Temperature dependence of the hydrated electron's excited-state relaxation. I. Simulation predictions of resonance Raman and pump-probe transient absorption spectra of cavity and non-cavity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zho, Chen-Chen; Farr, Erik P.; Glover, William J.; Schwartz, Benjamin J.

2017-08-01

We use one-electron non-adiabatic mixed quantum/classical simulations to explore the temperature dependence of both the ground-state structure and the excited-state relaxation dynamics of the hydrated electron. We compare the results for both the traditional cavity picture and a more recent non-cavity model of the hydrated electron and make definite predictions for distinguishing between the different possible structural models in future experiments. We find that the traditional cavity model shows no temperature-dependent change in structure at constant density, leading to a predicted resonance Raman spectrum that is essentially temperature-independent. In contrast, the non-cavity model predicts a blue-shift in the hydrated electron's resonance Raman O-H stretch with increasing temperature. The lack of a temperature-dependent ground-state structural change of the cavity model also leads to a prediction of little change with temperature of both the excited-state lifetime and hot ground-state cooling time of the hydrated electron following photoexcitation. This is in sharp contrast to the predictions of the non-cavity model, where both the excited-state lifetime and hot ground-state cooling time are expected to decrease significantly with increasing temperature. These simulation-based predictions should be directly testable by the results of future time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy experiments. Finally, the temperature-dependent differences in predicted excited-state lifetime and hot ground-state cooling time of the two models also lead to different predicted pump-probe transient absorption spectroscopy of the hydrated electron as a function of temperature. We perform such experiments and describe them in Paper II [E. P. Farr et al., J. Chem. Phys. 147, 074504 (2017)], and find changes in the excited-state lifetime and hot ground-state cooling time with temperature that match well with the predictions of the non-cavity model. In particular, the experiments reveal stimulated emission from the excited state with an amplitude and lifetime that decreases with increasing temperature, a result in contrast to the lack of stimulated emission predicted by the cavity model but in good agreement with the non-cavity model. Overall, until ab initio calculations describing the non-adiabatic excited-state dynamics of an excess electron with hundreds of water molecules at a variety of temperatures become computationally feasible, the simulations presented here provide a definitive route for connecting the predictions of cavity and non-cavity models of the hydrated electron with future experiments.

The two-state dimer receptor model: a general model for receptor dimers.

PubMed

Franco, Rafael; Casadó, Vicent; Mallol, Josefa; Ferrada, Carla; Ferré, Sergi; Fuxe, Kjell; Cortés, Antoni; Ciruela, Francisco; Lluis, Carmen; Canela, Enric I

2006-06-01

Nonlinear Scatchard plots are often found for agonist binding to G-protein-coupled receptors. Because there is clear evidence of receptor dimerization, these nonlinear Scatchard plots can reflect cooperativity on agonist binding to the two binding sites in the dimer. According to this, the "two-state dimer receptor model" has been recently derived. In this article, the performance of the model has been analyzed in fitting data of agonist binding to A(1) adenosine receptors, which are an example of receptor displaying concave downward Scatchard plots. Analysis of agonist/antagonist competition data for dopamine D(1) receptors using the two-state dimer receptor model has also been performed. Although fitting to the two-state dimer receptor model was similar to the fitting to the "two-independent-site receptor model", the former is simpler, and a discrimination test selects the two-state dimer receptor model as the best. This model was also very robust in fitting data of estrogen binding to the estrogen receptor, for which Scatchard plots are concave upward. On the one hand, the model would predict the already demonstrated existence of estrogen receptor dimers. On the other hand, the model would predict that concave upward Scatchard plots reflect positive cooperativity, which can be neither predicted nor explained by assuming the existence of two different affinity states. In summary, the two-state dimer receptor model is good for fitting data of binding to dimeric receptors displaying either linear, concave upward, or concave downward Scatchard plots.

Hall viscosity and geometric response in the Chern-Simons matrix model of the Laughlin states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapa, Matthew F.; Hughes, Taylor L.

2018-05-01

We study geometric aspects of the Laughlin fractional quantum Hall (FQH) states using a description of these states in terms of a matrix quantum mechanics model known as the Chern-Simons matrix model (CSMM). This model was proposed by Polychronakos as a regularization of the noncommutative Chern-Simons theory description of the Laughlin states proposed earlier by Susskind. Both models can be understood as describing the electrons in a FQH state as forming a noncommutative fluid, i.e., a fluid occupying a noncommutative space. Here, we revisit the CSMM in light of recent work on geometric response in the FQH effect, with the goal of determining whether the CSMM captures this aspect of the physics of the Laughlin states. For this model, we compute the Hall viscosity, Hall conductance in a nonuniform electric field, and the Hall viscosity in the presence of anisotropy (or intrinsic geometry). Our calculations show that the CSMM captures the guiding center contribution to the known values of these quantities in the Laughlin states, but lacks the Landau orbit contribution. The interesting correlations in a Laughlin state are contained entirely in the guiding center part of the state/wave function, and so we conclude that the CSMM accurately describes the most important aspects of the physics of the Laughlin FQH states, including the Hall viscosity and other geometric properties of these states, which are of current interest.

State income tax policy and family size: fertility and the dependency exemption.

PubMed

Whittington, L A

1993-10-01

Data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics, excluding the low income Survey of Economic Opportunity, were used to test an empirical model of the relationship between US state tax exemption values and tax rates for couples and fertility. Income is held constant so that the real tax exemption value is affected by changes in tax rates, the price level, or the statutory value of the exemption. Prior research by Whittington et al. found a positive relationship between births and the federal exemption between 1979-83 for 294 households. The tax value of the exemption varies widely across states. There are 41 states with substantial personal income taxes, while seven states have no state personal income taxes. A very limited tax on personal income is collected in Tennessee, New Hampshire, and Connecticut. Pennsylvania has no dependency exemption. The range in exemption varies from $1500 in Georgia to $300 in Alabama. Tax credits in lieu of exemptions vary from $6 in Arkansas to $85 in Oregon. Tax rates also vary across states. The value of the exemption lowers the cost of a child and is not constant over time. Six models are specified. Model 1 uses combined state and federal exemptions. Models 2 and 3 use a lagged combined exemption value of one and two years. Models 4 and 6 use state exemptions separated from federal exemptions. Model 5 uses a lag of one year, and model 6 uses a lag of two years. The estimation results of the conditional logit (Chamberlain) Model 1 show a negative and significant coefficient, which suggests that exemptions are not an incentive for births. In Models 2 and 3, the coefficient is positive and significant. In Model 4, the pattern of Model 1 holds except the sign is positive. In Models 5 and 6, the federal exemption is positive and significant, and the state exemption is negative and significant. When substitution is made with the means of the predicted values for the exemption, Models 1-4 all become positive and significant. In models with income as a constant, income reduces the impact of the dependency exemption on fertility. Neither state or federal exemptions are a determinant of fertility but serve as a policy tool for motivating average family size.

Diagnosing Cloud Biases in the GFDL AM3 Model With Atmospheric Classification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Stuart; Marchand, Roger; Ackerman, Thomas

In this paper, we define a set of 21 atmospheric states, or recurring weather patterns, for a region surrounding the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site using an iterative clustering technique. The states are defined using dynamic and thermodynamic variables from reanalysis, tested for statistical significance with cloud radar data from the Southern Great Plains site, and are determined every 6 h for 14 years, creating a time series of atmospheric state. The states represent the various stages of the progression of synoptic systems through the region (e.g., warm fronts, warm sectors, cold fronts, cold northerly advection, andmore » high-pressure anticyclones) with a subset of states representing summertime conditions with varying degrees of convective activity. We use the states to classify output from the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model to test the model's simulation of the frequency of occurrence of the states and of the cloud occurrence during each state. The model roughly simulates the frequency of occurrence of the states but exhibits systematic cloud occurrence biases. Comparison of observed and model-simulated International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project histograms of cloud top pressure and optical thickness shows that the model lacks high thin cloud under all conditions, but biases in thick cloud are state-dependent. Frontal conditions in the model do not produce enough thick cloud, while fair-weather conditions produce too much. Finally, we find that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model improves the representation of thick clouds under all conditions but has little effect on high thin clouds. However, increasing resolution also changes the distribution of states, causing an increase in total cloud occurrence bias.« less

Diagnosing Cloud Biases in the GFDL AM3 Model With Atmospheric Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Stuart; Marchand, Roger; Ackerman, Thomas; Donner, Leo; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Seman, Charles

2017-12-01

We define a set of 21 atmospheric states, or recurring weather patterns, for a region surrounding the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site using an iterative clustering technique. The states are defined using dynamic and thermodynamic variables from reanalysis, tested for statistical significance with cloud radar data from the Southern Great Plains site, and are determined every 6 h for 14 years, creating a time series of atmospheric state. The states represent the various stages of the progression of synoptic systems through the region (e.g., warm fronts, warm sectors, cold fronts, cold northerly advection, and high-pressure anticyclones) with a subset of states representing summertime conditions with varying degrees of convective activity. We use the states to classify output from the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model to test the model's simulation of the frequency of occurrence of the states and of the cloud occurrence during each state. The model roughly simulates the frequency of occurrence of the states but exhibits systematic cloud occurrence biases. Comparison of observed and model-simulated International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project histograms of cloud top pressure and optical thickness shows that the model lacks high thin cloud under all conditions, but biases in thick cloud are state-dependent. Frontal conditions in the model do not produce enough thick cloud, while fair-weather conditions produce too much. We find that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model improves the representation of thick clouds under all conditions but has little effect on high thin clouds. However, increasing resolution also changes the distribution of states, causing an increase in total cloud occurrence bias.

Diagnosing Cloud Biases in the GFDL AM3 Model With Atmospheric Classification

DOE PAGES

Evans, Stuart; Marchand, Roger; Ackerman, Thomas; ...

2017-11-16

In this paper, we define a set of 21 atmospheric states, or recurring weather patterns, for a region surrounding the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site using an iterative clustering technique. The states are defined using dynamic and thermodynamic variables from reanalysis, tested for statistical significance with cloud radar data from the Southern Great Plains site, and are determined every 6 h for 14 years, creating a time series of atmospheric state. The states represent the various stages of the progression of synoptic systems through the region (e.g., warm fronts, warm sectors, cold fronts, cold northerly advection, andmore » high-pressure anticyclones) with a subset of states representing summertime conditions with varying degrees of convective activity. We use the states to classify output from the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model to test the model's simulation of the frequency of occurrence of the states and of the cloud occurrence during each state. The model roughly simulates the frequency of occurrence of the states but exhibits systematic cloud occurrence biases. Comparison of observed and model-simulated International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project histograms of cloud top pressure and optical thickness shows that the model lacks high thin cloud under all conditions, but biases in thick cloud are state-dependent. Frontal conditions in the model do not produce enough thick cloud, while fair-weather conditions produce too much. Finally, we find that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model improves the representation of thick clouds under all conditions but has little effect on high thin clouds. However, increasing resolution also changes the distribution of states, causing an increase in total cloud occurrence bias.« less

Anatomy of an Error: A Bidirectional State Model of Task Engagement/Disengagement and Attention-Related Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheyne, J. Allan; Solman, Grayden J. F.; Carriere, Jonathan S. A.; Smilek, Daniel

2009-01-01

We present arguments and evidence for a three-state attentional model of task engagement/disengagement. The model postulates three states of mind-wandering: occurrent task inattention, generic task inattention, and response disengagement. We hypothesize that all three states are both causes and consequences of task performance outcomes and apply…

Torsion-inversion tunneling patterns in the CH-stretch vibrationally excited states of the G12 family of molecules including methylamine.

PubMed

Dawadi, Mahesh B; Bhatta, Ram S; Perry, David S

2013-12-19

Two torsion-inversion tunneling models (models I and II) are reported for the CH-stretch vibrationally excited states in the G12 family of molecules. The torsion and inversion tunneling parameters, h(2v) and h(3v), respectively, are combined with low-order coupling terms involving the CH-stretch vibrations. Model I is a group theoretical treatment starting from the symmetric rotor methyl CH-stretch vibrations; model II is an internal coordinate model including the local-local CH-stretch coupling. Each model yields predicted torsion-inversion tunneling patterns of the four symmetry species, A, B, E1, and E2, in the CH-stretch excited states. Although the predicted tunneling patterns for the symmetric CH-stretch excited state are the same as for the ground state, inverted tunneling patterns are predicted for the asymmetric CH-stretches. The qualitative tunneling patterns predicted are independent of the model type and of the particular coupling terms considered. In model I, the magnitudes of the tunneling splittings in the two asymmetric CH-stretch excited states are equal to half of that in the ground state, but in model II, they differ when the tunneling rate is fast. The model predictions are compared across the series of molecules methanol, methylamine, 2-methylmalonaldehyde, and 5-methyltropolone and to the available experimental data.

Quantum state engineering in hybrid open quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Chaitanya; Larson, Jonas; Spiller, Timothy P.

2016-04-01

We investigate a possibility to generate nonclassical states in light-matter coupled noisy quantum systems, namely, the anisotropic Rabi and Dicke models. In these hybrid quantum systems, a competing influence of coherent internal dynamics and environment-induced dissipation drives the system into nonequilibrium steady states (NESSs). Explicitly, for the anisotropic Rabi model, the steady state is given by an incoherent mixture of two states of opposite parities, but as each parity state displays light-matter entanglement, we also find that the full state is entangled. Furthermore, as a natural extension of the anisotropic Rabi model to an infinite spin subsystem, we next explored the NESS of the anisotropic Dicke model. The NESS of this linearized Dicke model is also an inseparable state of light and matter. With an aim to enrich the dynamics beyond the sustainable entanglement found for the NESS of these hybrid quantum systems, we also propose to combine an all-optical feedback strategy for quantum state protection and for establishing quantum control in these systems. Our present work further elucidates the relevance of such hybrid open quantum systems for potential applications in quantum architectures.

Limitations Of The Current State Space Modelling Approach In Multistage Machining Processes Due To Operation Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abellán-Nebot, J. V.; Liu, J.; Romero, F.

2009-11-01

The State Space modelling approach has been recently proposed as an engineering-driven technique for part quality prediction in Multistage Machining Processes (MMP). Current State Space models incorporate fixture and datum variations in the multi-stage variation propagation, without explicitly considering common operation variations such as machine-tool thermal distortions, cutting-tool wear, cutting-tool deflections, etc. This paper shows the limitations of the current State Space model through an experimental case study where the effect of the spindle thermal expansion, cutting-tool flank wear and locator errors are introduced. The paper also discusses the extension of the current State Space model to include operation variations and its potential benefits.

A Hybrid Acoustic and Pronunciation Model Adaptation Approach for Non-native Speech Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Yoo Rhee; Kim, Hong Kook

In this paper, we propose a hybrid model adaptation approach in which pronunciation and acoustic models are adapted by incorporating the pronunciation and acoustic variabilities of non-native speech in order to improve the performance of non-native automatic speech recognition (ASR). Specifically, the proposed hybrid model adaptation can be performed at either the state-tying or triphone-modeling level, depending at which acoustic model adaptation is performed. In both methods, we first analyze the pronunciation variant rules of non-native speakers and then classify each rule as either a pronunciation variant or an acoustic variant. The state-tying level hybrid method then adapts pronunciation models and acoustic models by accommodating the pronunciation variants in the pronunciation dictionary and by clustering the states of triphone acoustic models using the acoustic variants, respectively. On the other hand, the triphone-modeling level hybrid method initially adapts pronunciation models in the same way as in the state-tying level hybrid method; however, for the acoustic model adaptation, the triphone acoustic models are then re-estimated based on the adapted pronunciation models and the states of the re-estimated triphone acoustic models are clustered using the acoustic variants. From the Korean-spoken English speech recognition experiments, it is shown that ASR systems employing the state-tying and triphone-modeling level adaptation methods can relatively reduce the average word error rates (WERs) by 17.1% and 22.1% for non-native speech, respectively, when compared to a baseline ASR system.

Noise can speed convergence in Markov chains.

PubMed

Franzke, Brandon; Kosko, Bart

2011-10-01

A new theorem shows that noise can speed convergence to equilibrium in discrete finite-state Markov chains. The noise applies to the state density and helps the Markov chain explore improbable regions of the state space. The theorem ensures that a stochastic-resonance noise benefit exists for states that obey a vector-norm inequality. Such noise leads to faster convergence because the noise reduces the norm components. A corollary shows that a noise benefit still occurs if the system states obey an alternate norm inequality. This leads to a noise-benefit algorithm that requires knowledge of the steady state. An alternative blind algorithm uses only past state information to achieve a weaker noise benefit. Simulations illustrate the predicted noise benefits in three well-known Markov models. The first model is a two-parameter Ehrenfest diffusion model that shows how noise benefits can occur in the class of birth-death processes. The second model is a Wright-Fisher model of genotype drift in population genetics. The third model is a chemical reaction network of zeolite crystallization. A fourth simulation shows a convergence rate increase of 64% for states that satisfy the theorem and an increase of 53% for states that satisfy the corollary. A final simulation shows that even suboptimal noise can speed convergence if the noise applies over successive time cycles. Noise benefits tend to be sharpest in Markov models that do not converge quickly and that do not have strong absorbing states.

An MPI-CUDA approach for hypersonic flows with detailed state-to-state air kinetics using a GPU cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonelli, Francesco; Tuttafesta, Michele; Colonna, Gianpiero; Cutrone, Luigi; Pascazio, Giuseppe

2017-10-01

This paper describes the most advanced results obtained in the context of fluid dynamic simulations of high-enthalpy flows using detailed state-to-state air kinetics. Thermochemical non-equilibrium, typical of supersonic and hypersonic flows, was modeled by using both the accurate state-to-state approach and the multi-temperature model proposed by Park. The accuracy of the two thermochemical non-equilibrium models was assessed by comparing the results with experimental findings, showing better predictions provided by the state-to-state approach. To overcome the huge computational cost of the state-to-state model, a multiple-nodes GPU implementation, based on an MPI-CUDA approach, was employed and a comprehensive code performance analysis is presented. Both the pure MPI-CPU and the MPI-CUDA implementations exhibit excellent scalability performance. GPUs outperform CPUs computing especially when the state-to-state approach is employed, showing speed-ups, of the single GPU with respect to the single-core CPU, larger than 100 in both the case of one MPI process and multiple MPI process.

Stochastic Modeling based on Dictionary Approach for the Generation of Daily Precipitation Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panu, U. S.; Ng, W.; Rasmussen, P. F.

2009-12-01

The modeling of weather states (i.e., precipitation occurrences) is critical when the historical data are not long enough for the desired analysis. Stochastic models (e.g., Markov Chain and Alternating Renewal Process (ARP)) of the precipitation occurrence processes generally assume the existence of short-term temporal-dependency between the neighboring states while implying the existence of long-term independency (randomness) of states in precipitation records. Existing temporal-dependent models for the generation of precipitation occurrences are restricted either by the fixed-length memory (e.g., the order of a Markov chain model), or by the reining states in segments (e.g., persistency of homogenous states within dry/wet-spell lengths of an ARP). The modeling of variable segment lengths and states could be an arduous task and a flexible modeling approach is required for the preservation of various segmented patterns of precipitation data series. An innovative Dictionary approach has been developed in the field of genome pattern recognition for the identification of frequently occurring genome segments in DNA sequences. The genome segments delineate the biologically meaningful ``words" (i.e., segments with a specific patterns in a series of discrete states) that can be jointly modeled with variable lengths and states. A meaningful “word”, in hydrology, can be referred to a segment of precipitation occurrence comprising of wet or dry states. Such flexibility would provide a unique advantage over the traditional stochastic models for the generation of precipitation occurrences. Three stochastic models, namely, the alternating renewal process using Geometric distribution, the second-order Markov chain model, and the Dictionary approach have been assessed to evaluate their efficacy for the generation of daily precipitation sequences. Comparisons involved three guiding principles namely (i) the ability of models to preserve the short-term temporal-dependency in data through the concepts of autocorrelation, average mutual information, and Hurst exponent, (ii) the ability of models to preserve the persistency within the homogenous dry/wet weather states through analysis of dry/wet-spell lengths between the observed and generated data, and (iii) the ability to assesses the goodness-of-fit of models through the likelihood estimates (i.e., AIC and BIC). Past 30 years of observed daily precipitation records from 10 Canadian meteorological stations were utilized for comparative analyses of the three models. In general, the Markov chain model performed well. The remainders of the models were found to be competitive from one another depending upon the scope and purpose of the comparison. Although the Markov chain model has a certain advantage in the generation of daily precipitation occurrences, the structural flexibility offered by the Dictionary approach in modeling the varied segment lengths of heterogeneous weather states provides a distinct and powerful advantage in the generation of precipitation sequences.

Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Dan

1990-01-01

Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

Cost-effectiveness Analysis in R Using a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Framework: A Tutorial.

PubMed

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Briggs, Andrew H; Mackay, Daniel F

2017-05-01

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performing cost-effectiveness analysis using a multi-state modeling approach. Alongside the tutorial, we provide easy-to-use functions in the statistics package R. We argue that this multi-state modeling approach using a package such as R has advantages over approaches where models are built in a spreadsheet package. In particular, using a syntax-based approach means there is a written record of what was done and the calculations are transparent. Reproducing the analysis is straightforward as the syntax just needs to be run again. The approach can be thought of as an alternative way to build a Markov decision-analytic model, which also has the option to use a state-arrival extended approach. In the state-arrival extended multi-state model, a covariate that represents patients' history is included, allowing the Markov property to be tested. We illustrate the building of multi-state survival models, making predictions from the models and assessing fits. We then proceed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis, including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Finally, we show how to create 2 common methods of visualizing the results-namely, cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The analysis is implemented entirely within R. It is based on adaptions to functions in the existing R package mstate to accommodate parametric multi-state modeling that facilitates extrapolation of survival curves.

A nonlinear model for myogenic regulation of blood flow to bone: equilibrium states and stability characteristics.

PubMed

Harrigan, T P

1996-01-01

A simple compartmental model for myogenic regulation of interstitial pressure in bone is developed, and the interaction between changes in interstitial pressure and changes in arterial and venous resistance is studied. The arterial resistance is modeled by a myogenic model that depends on transmural pressure, and the venous resistance is modeled by using a vascular waterfall. Two series capacitances model blood storage in the vascular system and interstitial fluid storage in the extravascular space. The static results mimic the observed effect that vasodilators work less well in bone than do vasoconstrictors. The static results also show that the model gives constant flow rates over a limited range of arterial pressure. The dynamic model shows unstable behavior at small values of bony capacitance and at high enough myogenic gain. At low myogenic gain, only a single equilibrium state is present, but a high enough myogenic gain, two new equilibrium states appear. At additional increases in gain, one of the two new states merges with and then separates from the original state, and the original state becomes a saddle point. The appearance of the new states and the transition of the original state to a saddle point do not depend on the bony capacitance, and these results are relevant to general fluid compartments. Numerical integration of the rate equations confirms the stability calculations and shows limit cycling behavior in several situations. The relevance of this model to circulation in bone and to other compartments is discussed.

Review: Regional groundwater flow modeling in heavily irrigated basins of selected states in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossman, Nathan R.; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.

2013-09-01

Water resources in agriculture-dominated basins of the arid western United States are stressed due to long-term impacts from pumping. A review of 88 regional groundwater-flow modeling applications from seven intensively irrigated western states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas) was conducted to provide hydrogeologists, modelers, water managers, and decision makers insight about past modeling studies that will aid future model development. Groundwater models were classified into three types: resource evaluation models (39 %), which quantify water budgets and act as preliminary models intended to be updated later, or constitute re-calibrations of older models; management/planning models (55 %), used to explore and identify management plans based on the response of the groundwater system to water-development or climate scenarios, sometimes under water-use constraints; and water rights models (7 %), used to make water administration decisions based on model output and to quantify water shortages incurred by water users or climate changes. Results for 27 model characteristics are summarized by state and model type, and important comparisons and contrasts are highlighted. Consideration of modeling uncertainty and the management focus toward sustainability, adaptive management and resilience are discussed, and future modeling recommendations, in light of the reviewed models and other published works, are presented.

Contribution of highway capital to industry and national productivity growth

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-10-01

The report contains the authors initial efforts aimed at extending the steady state freeway model for optimizing freeway traffic flow to a non-steady state model. The steady-state model does not allow reaction to continuously changing conditions whic...

Operationalizing resilience using state and transition models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In management, restoration, and policy contexts, the notion of resilience can be confusing. Systematic development of conceptual models of ecological state change (state transition models; STMs) can help overcome semantic confusion and promote a mechanistic understanding of resilience. Drawing on ex...

Monitoring alert and drowsy states by modeling EEG source nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sheng-Hsiou; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-10-01

Objective. As a human brain performs various cognitive functions within ever-changing environments, states of the brain characterized by recorded brain activities such as electroencephalogram (EEG) are inevitably nonstationary. The challenges of analyzing the nonstationary EEG signals include finding neurocognitive sources that underlie different brain states and using EEG data to quantitatively assess the state changes. Approach. This study hypothesizes that brain activities under different states, e.g. levels of alertness, can be modeled as distinct compositions of statistically independent sources using independent component analysis (ICA). This study presents a framework to quantitatively assess the EEG source nonstationarity and estimate levels of alertness. The framework was tested against EEG data collected from 10 subjects performing a sustained-attention task in a driving simulator. Main results. Empirical results illustrate that EEG signals under alert versus drowsy states, indexed by reaction speeds to driving challenges, can be characterized by distinct ICA models. By quantifying the goodness-of-fit of each ICA model to the EEG data using the model deviation index (MDI), we found that MDIs were significantly correlated with the reaction speeds (r  =  -0.390 with alertness models and r  =  0.449 with drowsiness models) and the opposite correlations indicated that the two models accounted for sources in the alert and drowsy states, respectively. Based on the observed source nonstationarity, this study also proposes an online framework using a subject-specific ICA model trained with an initial (alert) state to track the level of alertness. For classification of alert against drowsy states, the proposed online framework achieved an averaged area-under-curve of 0.745 and compared favorably with a classic power-based approach. Significance. This ICA-based framework provides a new way to study changes of brain states and can be applied to monitoring cognitive or mental states of human operators in attention-critical settings or in passive brain-computer interfaces.

Detecting Hidden Diversification Shifts in Models of Trait-Dependent Speciation and Extinction.

PubMed

Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C

2016-07-01

The distribution of diversity can vary considerably from clade to clade. Attempts to understand these patterns often employ state-dependent speciation and extinction models to determine whether the evolution of a particular novel trait has increased speciation rates and/or decreased extinction rates. It is still unclear, however, whether these models are uncovering important drivers of diversification, or whether they are simply pointing to more complex patterns involving many unmeasured and co-distributed factors. Here we describe an extension to the popular state-dependent speciation and extinction models that specifically accounts for the presence of unmeasured factors that could impact diversification rates estimated for the states of any observed trait, addressing at least one major criticism of BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction) methods. Specifically, our model, which we refer to as HiSSE (Hidden State Speciation and Extinction), assumes that related to each observed state in the model are "hidden" states that exhibit potentially distinct diversification dynamics and transition rates than the observed states in isolation. We also demonstrate how our model can be used as character-independent diversification models that allow for a complex diversification process that is independent of the evolution of a character. Under rigorous simulation tests and when applied to empirical data, we find that HiSSE performs reasonably well, and can at least detect net diversification rate differences between observed and hidden states and detect when diversification rate differences do not correlate with the observed states. We discuss the remaining issues with state-dependent speciation and extinction models in general, and the important ways in which HiSSE provides a more nuanced understanding of trait-dependent diversification. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting regional variations in mortality from motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Clark, D E; Cushing, B M

1999-02-01

To show that the previously-observed inverse relationship between population density and per-capita mortality from motor vehicle crashes can be derived from a simple mathematical model that can be used for prediction. The authors proposed models in which the number of fatal crashes in an area was directly proportional to the population and also to some power of the mean distance between hospitals. Alternatively, these can be parameterized as Weibull survival models. Using county and state data from the U.S. Census, the authors fitted linear regression equations on a logarithmic scale to test the validity of these models. The southern states conformed to a different model from the other states. If an indicator variable was used to distinguish these groups, the resulting model accounted for 74% of the variation from state to state (Alaska excepted). After controlling for mean inter-hospital distance, the southern states had a per-capita mortality 1.37 times that of the other states. Simply knowing the mean distance between hospitals in a region allows a fiarly accurate estimate of its per-capita mortality from vehicle crashes. After controlling for this factor, vehicle crash mortality per capita is higher in the southern states, for reasons yet to be explained.

Scaling in the vicinity of the four-state Potts fixed point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöte, H. W. J.; Guo, Wenan; Nightingale, M. P.

2017-08-01

We study a self-dual generalization of the Baxter-Wu model, employing results obtained by transfer matrix calculations of the magnetic scaling dimension and the free energy. While the pure critical Baxter-Wu model displays the critical behavior of the four-state Potts fixed point in two dimensions, in the sense that logarithmic corrections are absent, the introduction of different couplings in the up- and down triangles moves the model away from this fixed point, so that logarithmic corrections appear. Real couplings move the model into the first-order range, away from the behavior displayed by the nearest-neighbor, four-state Potts model. We also use complex couplings, which bring the model in the opposite direction characterized by the same type of logarithmic corrections as present in the four-state Potts model. Our finite-size analysis confirms in detail the existing renormalization theory describing the immediate vicinity of the four-state Potts fixed point.

Online Estimation of Model Parameters of Lithium-Ion Battery Using the Cubature Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Yong; Yan, Rusheng; Tian, Jindong; Zhou, Shijie; Hu, Chao

2017-11-01

Online estimation of state variables, including state-of-charge (SOC), state-of-energy (SOE) and state-of-health (SOH) is greatly crucial for the operation safety of lithium-ion battery. In order to improve estimation accuracy of these state variables, a precise battery model needs to be established. As the lithium-ion battery is a nonlinear time-varying system, the model parameters significantly vary with many factors, such as ambient temperature, discharge rate and depth of discharge, etc. This paper presents an online estimation method of model parameters for lithium-ion battery based on the cubature Kalman filter. The commonly used first-order resistor-capacitor equivalent circuit model is selected as the battery model, based on which the model parameters are estimated online. Experimental results show that the presented method can accurately track the parameters variation at different scenarios.

Comparison of Themodynamic and Transport Property Models for Computing Equilibrium High Enthalpy Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramasahayam, Veda Krishna Vyas; Diwakar, Anant; Bodi, Kowsik

2017-11-01

To study the flow of high temperature air in vibrational and chemical equilibrium, accurate models for thermodynamic state and transport phenomena are required. In the present work, the performance of a state equation model and two mixing rules for determining equilibrium air thermodynamic and transport properties are compared with that of curve fits. The thermodynamic state model considers 11 species which computes flow chemistry by an iterative process and the mixing rules considered for viscosity are Wilke and Armaly-Sutton. The curve fits of Srinivasan, which are based on Grabau type transition functions, are chosen for comparison. A two-dimensional Navier-Stokes solver is developed to simulate high enthalpy flows with numerical fluxes computed by AUSM+-up. The accuracy of state equation model and curve fits for thermodynamic properties is determined using hypersonic inviscid flow over a circular cylinder. The performance of mixing rules and curve fits for viscosity are compared using hypersonic laminar boundary layer prediction on a flat plate. It is observed that steady state solutions from state equation model and curve fits match with each other. Though curve fits are significantly faster the state equation model is more general and can be adapted to any flow composition.

The morphological state space revisited: what do phylogenetic patterns in homoplasy tell us about the number of possible character states?

PubMed Central

Hoyal Cuthill, Jennifer F.

2015-01-01

Biological variety and major evolutionary transitions suggest that the space of possible morphologies may have varied among lineages and through time. However, most models of phylogenetic character evolution assume that the potential state space is finite. Here, I explore what the morphological state space might be like, by analysing trends in homoplasy (repeated derivation of the same character state). Analyses of ten published character matrices are compared against computer simulations with different state space models: infinite states, finite states, ordered states and an ‘inertial' model, simulating phylogenetic constraints. Of these, only the infinite states model results in evolution without homoplasy, a prediction which is not generally met by real phylogenies. Many authors have interpreted the ubiquity of homoplasy as evidence that the number of evolutionary alternatives is finite. However, homoplasy is also predicted by phylogenetic constraints on the morphological distance that can be traversed between ancestor and descendent. Phylogenetic rarefaction (sub-sampling) shows that finite and inertial state spaces do produce contrasting trends in the distribution of homoplasy. Two clades show trends characteristic of phylogenetic inertia, with decreasing homoplasy (increasing consistency index) as we sub-sample more distantly related taxa. One clade shows increasing homoplasy, suggesting exhaustion of finite states. Different clades may, therefore, show different patterns of character evolution. However, when parsimony uninformative characters are excluded (which may occur without documentation in cladistic studies), it may no longer be possible to distinguish inertial and finite state spaces. Interestingly, inertial models predict that homoplasy should be clustered among comparatively close relatives (parallel evolution), whereas finite state models do not. If morphological evolution is often inertial in nature, then homoplasy (false homology) may primarily occur between close relatives, perhaps being replaced by functional analogy at higher taxonomic scales. PMID:26640650

State Machine Modeling of the Space Launch System Solid Rocket Boosters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Joshua A.; Patterson-Hine, Ann

2013-01-01

The Space Launch System is a Shuttle-derived heavy-lift vehicle currently in development to serve as NASA's premiere launch vehicle for space exploration. The Space Launch System is a multistage rocket with two Solid Rocket Boosters and multiple payloads, including the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. Planned Space Launch System destinations include near-Earth asteroids, the Moon, Mars, and Lagrange points. The Space Launch System is a complex system with many subsystems, requiring considerable systems engineering and integration. To this end, state machine analysis offers a method to support engineering and operational e orts, identify and avert undesirable or potentially hazardous system states, and evaluate system requirements. Finite State Machines model a system as a finite number of states, with transitions between states controlled by state-based and event-based logic. State machines are a useful tool for understanding complex system behaviors and evaluating "what-if" scenarios. This work contributes to a state machine model of the Space Launch System developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The Space Launch System Solid Rocket Booster avionics and ignition subsystems are modeled using MATLAB/Stateflow software. This model is integrated into a larger model of Space Launch System avionics used for verification and validation of Space Launch System operating procedures and design requirements. This includes testing both nominal and o -nominal system states and command sequences.

[Modeling asthma evolution by a multi-state model].

PubMed

Boudemaghe, T; Daurès, J P

2000-06-01

There are many scores for the evaluation of asthma. However, most do not take into account the evolutionary aspects of this illness. We propose a model for the clinical course of asthma by a homogeneous Markov model process based on data provided by the A.R.I.A. (Association de Recherche en Intelligence Artificielle dans le cadre de l'asthme et des maladies respiratoires). The criterion used is the activity of the illness during the month before consultation. The activity is divided into three levels: light (state 1), mild (state 2) and severe (state 3). The model allows the evaluation of the strength of transition between states. We found that strong intensities were implicated towards state 2 (lambda(12) and lambda(32)), less towards state 1 (lambda(21) and lambda(31)), and minimum towards state 3 (lambda(23)). This results in an equilibrium distribution essentially divided between state 1 and 2 (44.6% and 51.0% respectively) with a small proportion in state 3 (4.4%). In the future, the increasing amount of available data should permit the introduction of covariables, the distinction of subgroups and the implementation of clinical studies. The interest of this model falls within the domain of the quantification of the illness as well as the representation allowed thereof, while offering a formal framework for the clinical notion of time and evolution.

78 FR 14533 - Official Release of EMFAC2011 Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model for Use in the State of California

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

... testing of interim versions of the model with air districts and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs... Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model for Use in the State of California AGENCY: Environmental Protection... of the latest version of the California EMFAC model (short for EMission FACtor) for use in state...

Development of Water Quality Modeling in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation describes historical trends in water quality model development in the United States, reviews current efforts, and projects promising future directions. Water quality modeling has a relatively long history in the United States. While its origins lie in the work...

Geometric state space uncertainty as a new type of uncertainty addressing disparity in ';emergent properties' between real and modeled systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montero, J. T.; Lintz, H. E.; Sharp, D.

2013-12-01

Do emergent properties that result from models of complex systems match emergent properties from real systems? This question targets a type of uncertainty that we argue requires more attention in system modeling and validation efforts. We define an ';emergent property' to be an attribute or behavior of a modeled or real system that can be surprising or unpredictable and result from complex interactions among the components of a system. For example, thresholds are common across diverse systems and scales and can represent emergent system behavior that is difficult to predict. Thresholds or other types of emergent system behavior can be characterized by their geometry in state space (where state space is the space containing the set of all states of a dynamic system). One way to expedite our growing mechanistic understanding of how emergent properties emerge from complex systems is to compare the geometry of surfaces in state space between real and modeled systems. Here, we present an index (threshold strength) that can quantify a geometric attribute of a surface in state space. We operationally define threshold strength as how strongly a surface in state space resembles a step or an abrupt transition between two system states. First, we validated the index for application in greater than three dimensions of state space using simulated data. Then, we demonstrated application of the index in measuring geometric state space uncertainty between a real system and a deterministic, modeled system. In particular, we looked at geometric space uncertainty between climate behavior in 20th century and modeled climate behavior simulated by global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Surfaces from the climate models came from running the models over the same domain as the real data. We also created response surfaces from a real, climate data based on an empirical model that produces a geometric surface of predicted values in state space. We used a kernel regression method designed to capture the geometry of real data pattern without imposing shape assumptions a priori on the data; this kernel regression method is known as Non-parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR). We found that quantifying and comparing a geometric attribute in more than three dimensions of state space can discern whether the emergent nature of complex interactions in modeled systems matches that of real systems. Further, this method has potentially wider application in contexts where searching for abrupt change or ';action' in any hyperspace is desired.

Developing a Fundamental Model for an Integrated GPS/INS State Estimation System with Kalman Filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canfield, Stephen

1999-01-01

This work will demonstrate the integration of sensor and system dynamic data and their appropriate models using an optimal filter to create a robust, adaptable, easily reconfigurable state (motion) estimation system. This state estimation system will clearly show the application of fundamental modeling and filtering techniques. These techniques are presented at a general, first principles level, that can easily be adapted to specific applications. An example of such an application is demonstrated through the development of an integrated GPS/INS navigation system. This system acquires both global position data and inertial body data, to provide optimal estimates of current position and attitude states. The optimal states are estimated using a Kalman filter. The state estimation system will include appropriate error models for the measurement hardware. The results of this work will lead to the development of a "black-box" state estimation system that supplies current motion information (position and attitude states) that can be used to carry out guidance and control strategies. This black-box state estimation system is developed independent of the vehicle dynamics and therefore is directly applicable to a variety of vehicles. Issues in system modeling and application of Kalman filtering techniques are investigated and presented. These issues include linearized models of equations of state, models of the measurement sensors, and appropriate application and parameter setting (tuning) of the Kalman filter. The general model and subsequent algorithm is developed in Matlab for numerical testing. The results of this system are demonstrated through application to data from the X-33 Michael's 9A8 mission and are presented in plots and simple animations.

34 CFR 403.12 - What are the additional responsibilities of the State board?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... least two) technical committees to advise the State council and the State board on the development of model curricula to address State labor market needs. The technical committees shall develop an inventory of skills that may be used by the State board to define state-of-the-art model curricula. This...

34 CFR 403.12 - What are the additional responsibilities of the State board?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... least two) technical committees to advise the State council and the State board on the development of model curricula to address State labor market needs. The technical committees shall develop an inventory of skills that may be used by the State board to define state-of-the-art model curricula. This...

A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2018-01-01

In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing's aeroelastic response under the admissible flight states via a minimum number of estimated parameters compared to standard identification approaches. The obtained results demonstrate the high accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed global identification framework, thus constituting a first step towards the next generation of "fly-by-feel" aerospace vehicles with state awareness capabilities.

The Thomas–Fermi quark model: Non-relativistic aspects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Quan, E-mail: quan_liu@baylor.edu; Wilcox, Walter, E-mail: walter_wilcox@baylor.edu

The first numerical investigation of non-relativistic aspects of the Thomas–Fermi (TF) statistical multi-quark model is given. We begin with a review of the traditional TF model without an explicit spin interaction and find that the spin splittings are too small in this approach. An explicit spin interaction is then introduced which entails the definition of a generalized spin “flavor”. We investigate baryonic states in this approach which can be described with two inequivalent wave functions; such states can however apply to multiple degenerate flavors. We find that the model requires a spatial separation of quark flavors, even if completely degenerate.more » Although the TF model is designed to investigate the possibility of many-quark states, we find surprisingly that it may be used to fit the low energy spectrum of almost all ground state octet and decuplet baryons. The charge radii of such states are determined and compared with lattice calculations and other models. The low energy fit obtained allows us to extrapolate to the six-quark doubly strange H-dibaryon state, flavor symmetric strange states of higher quark content and possible six quark nucleon–nucleon resonances. The emphasis here is on the systematics revealed in this approach. We view our model as a versatile and convenient tool for quickly assessing the characteristics of new, possibly bound, particle states of higher quark number content. -- Highlights: • First application of the statistical Thomas–Fermi quark model to baryonic systems. • Novel aspects: spin as generalized flavor; spatial separation of quark flavor phases. • The model is statistical, but the low energy baryonic spectrum is successfully fit. • Numerical applications include the H-dibaryon, strange states and nucleon resonances. • The statistical point of view does not encourage the idea of bound many-quark baryons.« less

State space model approach for forecasting the use of electrical energy (a case study on: PT. PLN (Persero) district of Kroya)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniati, Devi; Hoyyi, Abdul; Widiharih, Tatik

2018-05-01

Time series data is a series of data taken or measured based on observations at the same time interval. Time series data analysis is used to perform data analysis considering the effect of time. The purpose of time series analysis is to know the characteristics and patterns of a data and predict a data value in some future period based on data in the past. One of the forecasting methods used for time series data is the state space model. This study discusses the modeling and forecasting of electric energy consumption using the state space model for univariate data. The modeling stage is began with optimal Autoregressive (AR) order selection, determination of state vector through canonical correlation analysis, estimation of parameter, and forecasting. The result of this research shows that modeling of electric energy consumption using state space model of order 4 with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value 3.655%, so the model is very good forecasting category.

Statistical Mechanical Foundation for the Two-State Transition in Protein Folding of Small Globular Proteins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iguchi, Kazumoto

We discuss the statistical mechanical foundation for the two-state transition in the protein folding of small globular proteins. In the standard arguments of protein folding, the statistical search for the ground state is carried out from astronomically many conformations in the configuration space. This leads us to the famous Levinthal's paradox. To resolve the paradox, Gō first postulated that the two-state transition - all-or-none type transition - is very crucial for the protein folding of small globular proteins and used the Gō's lattice model to show the two-state transition nature. Recently, there have been accumulated many experimental results that support the two-state transition for small globular proteins. Stimulated by such recent experiments, Zwanzig has introduced a minimal statistical mechanical model that exhibits the two-state transition. Also, Finkelstein and coworkers have discussed the solution of the paradox by considering the sequential folding of a small globular protein. On the other hand, recently Iguchi have introduced a toy model of protein folding using the Rubik's magic snake model, in which all folded structures are exactly known and mathematically represented in terms of the four types of conformations: cis-, trans-, left and right gauche-configurations between the unit polyhedrons. In this paper, we study the relationship between the Gō's two-state transition, the Zwanzig's statistical mechanics model and the Finkelsteinapos;s sequential folding model by applying them to the Rubik's magic snake models. We show that the foundation of the Gō's two-state transition model relies on the search within the equienergy surface that is labeled by the contact order of the hydrophobic condensation. This idea reproduces the Zwanzig's statistical model as a special case, realizes the Finkelstein's sequential folding model and fits together to understand the nature of the two-state transition of a small globular protein by calculating the physical quantities such as the free energy, the contact order and the specific heat. We point out the similarity between the liquid-gas transition in statistical mechanics and the two-state transition of protein folding. We also study morphology of the Rubik's magic snake models to give a prototype model for understanding the differences between α-helices proteins and β-sheets proteins.

A Direct Adaptive Control Approach in the Presence of Model Mismatch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Suresh M.; Tao, Gang; Khong, Thuan

2009-01-01

This paper considers the problem of direct model reference adaptive control when the plant-model matching conditions are violated due to abnormal changes in the plant or incorrect knowledge of the plant's mathematical structure. The approach consists of direct adaptation of state feedback gains for state tracking, and simultaneous estimation of the plant-model mismatch. Because of the mismatch, the plant can no longer track the state of the original reference model, but may be able to track a new reference model that still provides satisfactory performance. The reference model is updated if the estimated plant-model mismatch exceeds a bound that is determined via robust stability and/or performance criteria. The resulting controller is a hybrid direct-indirect adaptive controller that offers asymptotic state tracking in the presence of plant-model mismatch as well as parameter deviations.

Stated choice for transportation demand management models : using a disaggregate truth set to study predictive validity

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

Discrete choice models have expanded the ability of transportation planners to forecast future trends. Where new services or policies are proposed, the stated-choice approach can provide an objective basis for forecasts. Stated-choice models are subj...

State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Patrik L.; Stocker, Thomas F.

2017-10-01

Growing evidence from general circulation models (GCMs) indicates that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) depends on the magnitude of forcing, which is commonly referred to as state-dependence. We present a comprehensive assessment of ECS state-dependence in Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) by analyzing millennial simulations with sustained 2×CO2 and 4×CO2 forcings. We compare different extrapolation methods and show that ECS is smaller in the higher-forcing scenario in 12 out of 15 EMICs, in contrast to the opposite behavior reported from GCMs. In one such EMIC, the Bern3D-LPX model, this state-dependence is mainly due to the weakening sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean, which depends on model configuration. Due to ocean-mixing adjustments, state-dependence is only detected hundreds of years after the abrupt forcing, highlighting the need for long model integrations. Adjustments to feedback parametrizations of EMICs may be necessary if GCM intercomparisons confirm an opposite state-dependence.

Cosmological implications of quantum mechanics parametrization of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szydłowski, Marek; Stachowski, Aleksander; Urbanowski, Krzysztof

2017-08-01

We consider the cosmology with the running dark energy. The parametrization of dark energy is derived from the quantum process of transition from the false vacuum state to the true vacuum state. This model is the generalized interacting CDM model. We consider the energy density of dark energy parametrization, which is given by the Breit-Wigner energy distribution function. The idea of the process of the quantum mechanical decay of unstable states was formulated by Krauss and Dent. We used this idea in our considerations. In this model is an energy transfer in the dark sector. In this evolutional scenario the universe starts from the false vacuum state and goes to the true vacuum state of the present day universe. The intermediate regime during the passage from false to true vacuum states takes place. In this way the cosmological constant problem can be tried to solve. We estimate the cosmological parameters for this model. This model is in a good agreement with the astronomical data and is practically indistinguishable from CDM model.

Distributed state-space generation of discrete-state stochastic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ciardo, Gianfranco; Gluckman, Joshua; Nicol, David

1995-01-01

High-level formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets can be used to model complex systems. Analysis of logical and numerical properties of these models of ten requires the generation and storage of the entire underlying state space. This imposes practical limitations on the types of systems which can be modeled. Because of the vast amount of memory consumed, we investigate distributed algorithms for the generation of state space graphs. The distributed construction allows us to take advantage of the combined memory readily available on a network of workstations. The key technical problem is to find effective methods for on-the-fly partitioning, so that the state space is evenly distributed among processors. In this paper we report on the implementation of a distributed state-space generator that may be linked to a number of existing system modeling tools. We discuss partitioning strategies in the context of Petri net models, and report on performance observed on a network of workstations, as well as on a distributed memory multi-computer.

Review: Modelling chemical kinetics and convective heating in giant planet entries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynier, Philippe; D'Ammando, Giuliano; Bruno, Domenico

2018-01-01

A review of the existing chemical kinetics models for H2 / He mixtures and related transport and thermodynamic properties is presented as a pre-requisite towards the development of innovative models based on the state-to-state approach. A survey of the available results obtained during the mission preparation and post-flight analyses of the Galileo mission has been undertaken and a computational matrix has been derived. Different chemical kinetics schemes for hydrogen/helium mixtures have been applied to numerical simulations of the selected points along the entry trajectory. First, a reacting scheme, based on literature data, has been set up for computing the flow-field around the probe at high altitude and comparisons with existing numerical predictions are performed. Then, a macroscopic model derived from a state-to-state model has been constructed and incorporated into a CFD code. Comparisons with existing numerical results from the literature have been performed as well as cross-check comparisons between the predictions provided by the different models in order to evaluate the potential of innovative chemical kinetics models based on the state-to-state approach.

Dichromatic State Sum Models for Four-Manifolds from Pivotal Functors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bärenz, Manuel; Barrett, John

2017-11-01

A family of invariants of smooth, oriented four-dimensional manifolds is defined via handle decompositions and the Kirby calculus of framed link diagrams. The invariants are parametrised by a pivotal functor from a spherical fusion category into a ribbon fusion category. A state sum formula for the invariant is constructed via the chain-mail procedure, so a large class of topological state sum models can be expressed as link invariants. Most prominently, the Crane-Yetter state sum over an arbitrary ribbon fusion category is recovered, including the nonmodular case. It is shown that the Crane-Yetter invariant for nonmodular categories is stronger than signature and Euler invariant. A special case is the four-dimensional untwisted Dijkgraaf-Witten model. Derivations of state space dimensions of TQFTs arising from the state sum model agree with recent calculations of ground state degeneracies in Walker-Wang models. Relations to different approaches to quantum gravity such as Cartan geometry and teleparallel gravity are also discussed.

Dichromatic State Sum Models for Four-Manifolds from Pivotal Functors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bärenz, Manuel; Barrett, John

2018-06-01

A family of invariants of smooth, oriented four-dimensional manifolds is defined via handle decompositions and the Kirby calculus of framed link diagrams. The invariants are parametrised by a pivotal functor from a spherical fusion category into a ribbon fusion category. A state sum formula for the invariant is constructed via the chain-mail procedure, so a large class of topological state sum models can be expressed as link invariants. Most prominently, the Crane-Yetter state sum over an arbitrary ribbon fusion category is recovered, including the nonmodular case. It is shown that the Crane-Yetter invariant for nonmodular categories is stronger than signature and Euler invariant. A special case is the four-dimensional untwisted Dijkgraaf-Witten model. Derivations of state space dimensions of TQFTs arising from the state sum model agree with recent calculations of ground state degeneracies in Walker-Wang models. Relations to different approaches to quantum gravity such as Cartan geometry and teleparallel gravity are also discussed.

State-based Marketplaces using 'clearinghouse' plan management models are associated with lower premiums.

PubMed

Krinn, Kelly; Karaca-Mandic, Pinar; Blewett, Lynn A

2015-01-01

The state-based and federally facilitated health insurance Marketplaces, or exchanges, enrolled more than eight million people during the first open enrollment period, which ended March 31, 2014. There is significant variation in how states have designed and implemented their Marketplaces. We examined how premiums varied with states' involvement in the Marketplaces through governance, plan management authority, and strategy during the first year that the exchanges have been open. State-based Marketplaces using "clearinghouse" plan management models had significantly lower adjusted average premiums for all plans within each metal level compared to state-based Marketplaces using "active purchaser" models and the federally facilitated and partnership Marketplaces. Clearinghouse management models are those in which all health plans that meet published criteria are accepted. Active purchaser models are those in which states negotiate premiums, provider networks, number of plans, and benefits. Our baseline estimates provide valuable benchmarks for evaluating future performance of states' involvement in governance, plan management, and regulatory authority of the insurance Marketplaces. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

A Markov chain model for reliability growth and decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegrist, K.

1982-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to describe a complex system undergoing a sequence of trials in which there is interaction between the internal states of the system and the outcomes of the trials. For example, the model might describe a system undergoing testing that is redesigned after each failure. The basic assumptions for the model are that the state of the system after a trial depends probabilistically only on the state before the trial and on the outcome of the trial and that the outcome of a trial depends probabilistically only on the state of the system before the trial. It is shown that under these basic assumptions, the successive states form a Markov chain and the successive states and outcomes jointly form a Markov chain. General results are obtained for the transition probabilities, steady-state distributions, etc. A special case studied in detail describes a system that has two possible state ('repaired' and 'unrepaired') undergoing trials that have three possible outcomes ('inherent failure', 'assignable-cause' 'failure' and 'success'). For this model, the reliability function is computed explicitly and an optimal repair policy is obtained.

Realtime Knowledge Management (RKM): From an International Space Station (ISS) Point of View

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Peter I.; McDermott, William; Alena, Richard L.

2004-01-01

We are developing automated methods to provide realtime access to spacecraft domain knowledge relevant a spacecraft's current operational state. The method is based upon analyzing state-transition signatures in the telemetry stream. A key insight is that documentation relevant to a specific failure mode or operational state is related to the structure and function of spacecraft systems. This means that diagnostic dependency and state models can provide a roadmap for effective documentation navigation and presentation. Diagnostic models consume the telemetry and derive a high-level state description of the spacecraft. Each potential spacecraft state description is matched against the predictions of models that were developed from information found in the pages and sections in the relevant International Space Station (ISS) documentation and reference materials. By annotating each model fragment with the domain knowledge sources from which it was derived we can develop a system that automatically selects those documents representing the domain knowledge encapsulated by the models that compute the current spacecraft state. In this manner, when the spacecraft state changes, the relevant documentation context and presentation will also change.

Using hidden Markov models to align multiple sequences.

PubMed

Mount, David W

2009-07-01

A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a probabilistic model of a multiple sequence alignment (msa) of proteins. In the model, each column of symbols in the alignment is represented by a frequency distribution of the symbols (called a "state"), and insertions and deletions are represented by other states. One moves through the model along a particular path from state to state in a Markov chain (i.e., random choice of next move), trying to match a given sequence. The next matching symbol is chosen from each state, recording its probability (frequency) and also the probability of going to that state from a previous one (the transition probability). State and transition probabilities are multiplied to obtain a probability of the given sequence. The hidden nature of the HMM is due to the lack of information about the value of a specific state, which is instead represented by a probability distribution over all possible values. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of HMMs in msa and presents algorithms for calculating an HMM and the conditions for producing the best HMM.

Connecting the Kuramoto Model and the Chimera State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotwal, Tejas; Jiang, Xin; Abrams, Daniel M.

2017-12-01

Since its discovery in 2002, the chimera state has frequently been described as a counterintuitive, puzzling phenomenon. The Kuramoto model, in contrast, has become a celebrated paradigm useful for understanding a range of phenomena related to phase transitions, synchronization, and network effects. Here we show that the chimera state can be understood as emerging naturally through a symmetry-breaking bifurcation from the Kuramoto model's partially synchronized state. Our analysis sheds light on recent observations of chimera states in laser arrays, chemical oscillators, and mechanical pendula.

Updating of states in operational hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruland, O.; Kolberg, S.; Engeland, K.; Gragne, A. S.; Liston, G.; Sand, K.; Tøfte, L.; Alfredsen, K.

2012-04-01

Operationally the main purpose of hydrological models is to provide runoff forecasts. The quality of the model state and the accuracy of the weather forecast together with the model quality define the runoff forecast quality. Input and model errors accumulate over time and may leave the model in a poor state. Usually model states can be related to observable conditions in the catchment. Updating of these states, knowing their relation to observable catchment conditions, influence directly the forecast quality. Norway is internationally in the forefront in hydropower scheduling both on short and long terms. The inflow forecasts are fundamental to this scheduling. Their quality directly influence the producers profit as they optimize hydropower production to market demand and at the same time minimize spill of water and maximize available hydraulic head. The quality of the inflow forecasts strongly depends on the quality of the models applied and the quality of the information they use. In this project the focus has been to improve the quality of the model states which the forecast is based upon. Runoff and snow storage are two observable quantities that reflect the model state and are used in this project for updating. Generally the methods used can be divided in three groups: The first re-estimates the forcing data in the updating period; the second alters the weights in the forecast ensemble; and the third directly changes the model states. The uncertainty related to the forcing data through the updating period is due to both uncertainty in the actual observation and to how well the gauging stations represent the catchment both in respect to temperatures and precipitation. The project looks at methodologies that automatically re-estimates the forcing data and tests the result against observed response. Model uncertainty is reflected in a joint distribution of model parameters estimated using the Dream algorithm.

Ground-state and Thermodynamic Properties of an S = 1 Kitaev Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga, Akihisa; Tomishige, Hiroyuki; Nasu, Joji

2018-06-01

We study the ground-state and thermodynamic properties of an S = 1 Kitaev model. We first clarify the existence of global parity symmetry in addition to the local symmetry on each plaquette, which enables us to perform large-scale calculations on up to 24 sites. It is found that the ground state should be singlet, and its energy is estimated as E/N ˜ -0.65J, where J is the Kitaev exchange coupling. We find that the lowest excited state belongs to the same subspace as the ground state, and that the gap decreases monotonically with increasing system size, which suggests that the ground state of the S = 1 Kitaev model is gapless. Using the thermal pure quantum states, we clarify the finite temperature properties characteristic of the Kitaev models with S ≤ 2.

Floquet resonant states and validity of the Floquet-Magnus expansion in the periodically driven Friedrichs models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Takashi

2015-02-01

The Floquet eigenvalue problem is analyzed for periodically driven Friedrichs models on discrete and continuous space. In the high-frequency regime, there exists a Floquet bound state consistent with the Floquet-Magnus expansion in the discrete Friedrichs model, while it is not the case in the continuous model. In the latter case, however, the bound state predicted by the Floquet-Magnus expansion appears as a metastable state whose lifetime diverges in the limit of large frequencies. We obtain the lifetime by evaluating the imaginary part of the quasienergy of the Floquet resonant state. In the low-frequency regime, there is no Floquet bound state and instead the Floquet resonant state with exponentially small imaginary part of the quasienergy appears, which is understood as the quantum tunneling in the energy space.

State policy change: Revenue decoupling in the electricity market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeil, Kytson L.

The study seeks to answer the question, why are states adopting revenue decoupling in the electricity market, by investigating the relationship between policy adoption and attributes of the electricity market, the structure of the state utility commissions, and the political climate of the state. The study examines the period 1978-2008. Two econometric models, the marginal risk set model and the conditional risk set model, are estimated to predict the influence of covariates on the probability of the state adopting revenue decoupling in the electricity market. The models are both variants of the Cox proportional hazard model and use different underlying assumptions about the nature of adoption of revenue decoupling and when the states are considered to be at risk of adoption. Results suggest that market attributes, such as the source of electricity generation in the state, state energy intensity, and the distribution of non-public and public utilities, significantly influence the adoption of the policy. Also, the method of selecting commissioners and the party affiliation of elected officials in the state are important factors. The study concludes by suggestions to improve the implementation and evaluation of revenue decoupling in the electricity markets.

Sharp Contradiction for Local-Hidden-State Model in Quantum Steering.

PubMed

Chen, Jing-Ling; Su, Hong-Yi; Xu, Zhen-Peng; Pati, Arun Kumar

2016-08-26

In quantum theory, no-go theorems are important as they rule out the existence of a particular physical model under consideration. For instance, the Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) theorem serves as a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden variable models by presenting a full contradiction for the multipartite GHZ states. However, the elegant GHZ argument for Bell's nonlocality does not go through for bipartite Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) state. Recent study on quantum nonlocality has shown that the more precise description of EPR's original scenario is "steering", i.e., the nonexistence of local hidden state models. Here, we present a simple GHZ-like contradiction for any bipartite pure entangled state, thus proving a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden state models in the EPR paradox. This also indicates that the very simple steering paradox presented here is indeed the closest form to the original spirit of the EPR paradox.

Dynamics of Entropy in Quantum-like Model of Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu

2011-03-01

We present a quantum-like model of decision making in games of the Prisoner's Dilemma type. By this model the brain processes information by using representation of mental states in complex Hilbert space. Driven by the master equation the mental state of a player, say Alice, approaches an equilibrium point in the space of density matrices. By using this equilibrium point Alice determines her mixed (i.e., probabilistic) strategy with respect to Bob. Thus our model is a model of thinking through decoherence of initially pure mental state. Decoherence is induced by interaction with memory and external environment. In this paper we study (numerically) dynamics of quantum entropy of Alice's state in the process of decision making. Our analysis demonstrates that this dynamics depends nontrivially on the initial state of Alice's mind on her own actions and her prediction state (for possible actions of Bob.)

Single-channel kinetics of BK (Slo1) channels

PubMed Central

Geng, Yanyan; Magleby, Karl L.

2014-01-01

Single-channel kinetics has proven a powerful tool to reveal information about the gating mechanisms that control the opening and closing of ion channels. This introductory review focuses on the gating of large conductance Ca2+- and voltage-activated K+ (BK or Slo1) channels at the single-channel level. It starts with single-channel current records and progresses to presentation and analysis of single-channel data and the development of gating mechanisms in terms of discrete state Markov (DSM) models. The DSM models are formulated in terms of the tetrameric modular structure of BK channels, consisting of a central transmembrane pore-gate domain (PGD) attached to four surrounding transmembrane voltage sensing domains (VSD) and a large intracellular cytosolic domain (CTD), also referred to as the gating ring. The modular structure and data analysis shows that the Ca2+ and voltage dependent gating considered separately can each be approximated by 10-state two-tiered models with five closed states on the upper tier and five open states on the lower tier. The modular structure and joint Ca2+ and voltage dependent gating are consistent with a 50 state two-tiered model with 25 closed states on the upper tier and 25 open states on the lower tier. Adding an additional tier of brief closed (flicker states) to the 10-state or 50-state models improved the description of the gating. For fixed experimental conditions a channel would gate in only a subset of the potential number of states. The detected number of states and the correlations between adjacent interval durations are consistent with the tiered models. The examined models can account for the single-channel kinetics and the bursting behavior of gating. Ca2+ and voltage activate BK channels by predominantly increasing the effective opening rate of the channel with a smaller decrease in the effective closing rate. Ca2+ and depolarization thus activate by mainly destabilizing the closed states. PMID:25653620

Dealing with the health state 'dead' when using discrete choice experiments to obtain values for EQ-5D-5L heath states.

PubMed

Ramos-Goñi, Juan Manuel; Rivero-Arias, Oliver; Errea, María; Stolk, Elly A; Herdman, Michael; Cabasés, Juan Manuel

2013-07-01

To evaluate two different methods to obtain a dead (0)--full health (1) scale for EQ-5D-5L valuation studies when using discrete choice (DC) modeling. The study was carried out among 400 respondents from Barcelona who were representative of the Spanish population in terms of age, sex, and level of education. The DC design included 50 pairs of health states in five blocks. Participants were forced to choose between two EQ-5D-5L states (A and B). Two extra questions concerned whether A and B were considered worse than dead. Each participant performed ten choice exercises. In addition, values were collected using lead-time trade-off (lead-time TTO), for which 100 states in ten blocks were selected. Each participant performed five lead-time TTO exercises. These consisted of DC models offering the health state 'dead' as one of the choices--for which all participants' responses were used (DCdead)--and a model that included only the responses of participants who chose at least one state as worse than dead (WTD) (DCWTD). The study also estimated DC models rescaled with lead-time TTO data and a lead-time TTO linear model. The DC(dead) and DCWTD models produced relatively similar results, although the coefficients in the DCdead model were slightly lower. The DC model rescaled with lead-time TTO data produced higher utility decrements. Lead-time TTO produced the highest utility decrements. The incorporation of the state 'dead' in the DC models produces results in concordance with DC models that do not include 'dead'.

Mine Burial Assessment State-of the Art in Prediction and Modeling Workshop and Initiation of Technical Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-09-30

Burial Assessment State-of-the Art Science , Technology, and Modeling. A Review of Coastal Research, Modeling, and Naval Operational Needs in Shallow Water...the ONR Mine Burial Prediction Program are summarized below. 1) Completed comprehensive technical reports: a. Mine Burial Assessment, State-of-the Art ... Science , Technology, and Modeling. A review of Coastal Research, Modeling, and Naval Operational Needs in Shallow Water Environments with

Parameter redundancy in discrete state-space and integrated models.

PubMed

Cole, Diana J; McCrea, Rachel S

2016-09-01

Discrete state-space models are used in ecology to describe the dynamics of wild animal populations, with parameters, such as the probability of survival, being of ecological interest. For a particular parametrization of a model it is not always clear which parameters can be estimated. This inability to estimate all parameters is known as parameter redundancy or a model is described as nonidentifiable. In this paper we develop methods that can be used to detect parameter redundancy in discrete state-space models. An exhaustive summary is a combination of parameters that fully specify a model. To use general methods for detecting parameter redundancy a suitable exhaustive summary is required. This paper proposes two methods for the derivation of an exhaustive summary for discrete state-space models using discrete analogues of methods for continuous state-space models. We also demonstrate that combining multiple data sets, through the use of an integrated population model, may result in a model in which all parameters are estimable, even though models fitted to the separate data sets may be parameter redundant. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Application of Consider Covariance to the Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundberg, John B.

1996-01-01

The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is the basis for many applications of filtering theory to real-time problems where estimates of the state of a dynamical system are to be computed based upon some set of observations. The form of the EKF may vary somewhat from one application to another, but the fundamental principles are typically unchanged among these various applications. As is the case in many filtering applications, models of the dynamical system (differential equations describing the state variables) and models of the relationship between the observations and the state variables are created. These models typically employ a set of constants whose values are established my means of theory or experimental procedure. Since the estimates of the state are formed assuming that the models are perfect, any modeling errors will affect the accuracy of the computed estimates. Note that the modeling errors may be errors of commission (errors in terms included in the model) or omission (errors in terms excluded from the model). Consequently, it becomes imperative when evaluating the performance of real-time filters to evaluate the effect of modeling errors on the estimates of the state.

State-of-charge estimation in lithium-ion batteries: A particle filter approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulsyan, Aditya; Tsai, Yiting; Gopaluni, R. Bhushan; Braatz, Richard D.

2016-11-01

The dynamics of lithium-ion batteries are complex and are often approximated by models consisting of partial differential equations (PDEs) relating the internal ionic concentrations and potentials. The Pseudo two-dimensional model (P2D) is one model that performs sufficiently accurately under various operating conditions and battery chemistries. Despite its widespread use for prediction, this model is too complex for standard estimation and control applications. This article presents an original algorithm for state-of-charge estimation using the P2D model. Partial differential equations are discretized using implicit stable algorithms and reformulated into a nonlinear state-space model. This discrete, high-dimensional model (consisting of tens to hundreds of states) contains implicit, nonlinear algebraic equations. The uncertainty in the model is characterized by additive Gaussian noise. By exploiting the special structure of the pseudo two-dimensional model, a novel particle filter algorithm that sweeps in time and spatial coordinates independently is developed. This algorithm circumvents the degeneracy problems associated with high-dimensional state estimation and avoids the repetitive solution of implicit equations by defining a 'tether' particle. The approach is illustrated through extensive simulations.

Comparison of CRD, APU, and state models for Iowa corn and soybeans and North Dakota barley and spring wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, V.

1983-01-01

A comparison was made among the CEAS crop reporting district (CRD), agrophysical unit (APU), and state level multiple regression yield models for corn and soybeans in Iowa and barley and spring wheat in North Dakota. The best predictions were made by the state model for North Dakota spring wheat, by the APU models for barley, by the CRD models for Iowa soybeans, and by APU covariance models for Iowa corn. Because of this lack of consistency of model performance, CRD models would be recommended due to the availability of the data.

Indicators of ecosystem function identify alternate states in the sagebrush steppe.

PubMed

Kachergis, Emily; Rocca, Monique E; Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E

2011-10-01

Models of ecosystem change that incorporate nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, such as state-and-transition models (STMs), are increasingly popular tools for land management decision-making. However, few models are based on systematic collection and documentation of ecological data, and of these, most rely solely on structural indicators (species composition) to identify states and transitions. As STMs are adopted as an assessment framework throughout the United States, finding effective and efficient ways to create data-driven models that integrate ecosystem function and structure is vital. This study aims to (1) evaluate the utility of functional indicators (indicators of rangeland health, IRH) as proxies for more difficult ecosystem function measurements and (2) create a data-driven STM for the sagebrush steppe of Colorado, USA, that incorporates both ecosystem structure and function. We sampled soils, plant communities, and IRH at 41 plots with similar clayey soils but different site histories to identify potential states and infer the effects of management practices and disturbances on transitions. We found that many IRH were correlated with quantitative measures of functional indicators, suggesting that the IRH can be used to approximate ecosystem function. In addition to a reference state that functions as expected for this soil type, we identified four biotically and functionally distinct potential states, consistent with the theoretical concept of alternate states. Three potential states were related to management practices (chemical and mechanical shrub treatments and seeding history) while one was related only to ecosystem processes (erosion). IRH and potential states were also related to environmental variation (slope, soil texture), suggesting that there are environmental factors within areas with similar soils that affect ecosystem dynamics and should be noted within STMs. Our approach generated an objective, data-driven model of ecosystem dynamics for rangeland management. Our findings suggest that the IRH approximate ecosystem processes and can distinguish between alternate states and communities and identify transitions when building data-driven STMs. Functional indicators are a simple, efficient way to create data-driven models that are consistent with alternate state theory. Managers can use them to improve current model-building methods and thus apply state-and-transition models more broadly for land management decision-making.

State Spending on Higher Education Capital Outlays

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delaney, Jennifer A.; Doyle, William R.

2014-01-01

This paper explores the role that state spending on higher education capital outlays plays in state budgets by considering the functional form of the relationship between state spending on higher education capital outlays and four types of state expenditures. Three possible functional forms are tested: a linear model, a quadratic model, and the…

Modeling per capita state health expenditure variation: state-level characteristics matter.

PubMed

Cuckler, Gigi; Sisko, Andrea

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe the methods underlying the econometric model developed by the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, to explain differences in per capita total personal health care spending by state, as described in Cuckler, et al. (2011). Additionally, we discuss many alternative model specifications to provide additional insights for valid interpretation of the model. We study per capita personal health care spending as measured by the State Health Expenditures, by State of Residence for 1991-2009, produced by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Office of the Actuary. State-level demographic, health status, economic, and health economy characteristics were gathered from a variety of U.S. government sources, such as the Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Centers for Disease Control, the American Hospital Association, and HealthLeaders-InterStudy. State-specific factors, such as income, health care capacity, and the share of elderly residents, are important factors in explaining the level of per capita personal health care spending variation among states over time. However, the slow-moving nature of health spending per capita and close relationships among state-level factors create inefficiencies in modeling this variation, likely resulting in incorrectly estimated standard errors. In addition, we find that both pooled and fixed effects models primarily capture cross-sectional variation rather than period-specific variation.

Modeling Per Capita State Health Expenditure Variation: State-Level Characteristics Matter

PubMed Central

Cuckler, Gigi; Sisko, Andrea

2013-01-01

Objective In this paper, we describe the methods underlying the econometric model developed by the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, to explain differences in per capita total personal health care spending by state, as described in Cuckler, et al. (2011). Additionally, we discuss many alternative model specifications to provide additional insights for valid interpretation of the model. Data Source We study per capita personal health care spending as measured by the State Health Expenditures, by State of Residence for 1991–2009, produced by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary. State-level demographic, health status, economic, and health economy characteristics were gathered from a variety of U.S. government sources, such as the Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Centers for Disease Control, the American Hospital Association, and HealthLeaders-InterStudy. Principal Findings State-specific factors, such as income, health care capacity, and the share of elderly residents, are important factors in explaining the level of per capita personal health care spending variation among states over time. However, the slow-moving nature of health spending per capita and close relationships among state-level factors create inefficiencies in modeling this variation, likely resulting in incorrectly estimated standard errors. In addition, we find that both pooled and fixed effects models primarily capture cross-sectional variation rather than period-specific variation. PMID:24834363

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling

PubMed Central

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D.; Mackay, Daniel F.; Briggs, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results. PMID:27698003

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling.

PubMed

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Mackay, Daniel F; Briggs, Andrew H

2017-05-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results.

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Gibson, E J; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, A A; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

2018-01-01

Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors.

Impact of State Public Health Spending on Disease Incidence in the United States from 1980 to 2009.

PubMed

Verma, Reetu; Clark, Samantha; Leider, Jonathon; Bishai, David

2017-02-01

To understand the relationship between state-level spending by public health departments and the incidence of three vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs): mumps, pertussis, and rubella in the United States from 1980 to 2009. This study uses state-level public health spending data from The Census Bureau and annual mumps, pertussis, and rubella incidence counts from the University of Pittsburgh's project Tycho. Ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects regression models were tested, with results indicating that a fixed effects model would be most appropriate model for this analysis. Model output suggests a statistically significant, negative relationship between public health spending and mumps and rubella incidence. Lagging outcome variables indicate that public health spending actually has the greatest impact on VPD incidence in subsequent years, rather than the year in which the spending occurred. Results were robust to models with lagged spending variables, national time trends, and state time trends, as well as models with and without Medicaid and hospital spending. Our analysis indicates that there is evidence of a significant, negative relationship between a state's public health spending and the incidence of two VPDs, mumps and rubella, in the United States. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

The mathematical model that describes the periodic spouting of a geyser induced by boiling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagami, Hiroyuki

2017-04-01

We have derived and modified the dynamical model of a geyser induced by gas inflow and regular or irregular spouting dynamics of geysers induced by gas inflow has been reproduced by the model. On the other hand, though we have derived the dynamical model of a geyser induced by boiling, periodic change between the spouting state and the pause state has not been adequately modeled by the model. In this connection, concerning a geyser induced by gas inflow we have proposed the model as described below. Because pressure in the spouting tube decreases obeying to the Bernoulli's theorem when the spouting state begins and water in the spouting tube begins to flow, inflow of groundwater into the spouting tube occurs. When the amount of this inflow reaches a certain amount, the spouting state transforms to the pause state. In this study, by applying this idea to the dynamical model of a geyser induced by boiling, the periodic change between the spouting state and the pause state could be reappeared. As a result, the whole picture of the spouting mechanism of a geyser induced by boiling became clear. This research results would give hints on engineering repair in order to prevent the weakening or the depletion of the geyser. And this study would be also useful for protection of geysers as tourism and environmental resources.

Mechanism for multiplicity of steady states with distinct cell concentration in continuous culture of mammalian cells.

PubMed

Yongky, Andrew; Lee, Jongchan; Le, Tung; Mulukutla, Bhanu Chandra; Daoutidis, Prodromos; Hu, Wei-Shou

2015-07-01

Continuous culture for the production of biopharmaceutical proteins offers the possibility of steady state operations and thus more consistent product quality and increased productivity. Under some conditions, multiplicity of steady states has been observed in continuous cultures of mammalian cells, wherein with the same dilution rate and feed nutrient composition, steady states with very different cell and product concentrations may be reached. At those different steady states, cells may exhibit a high glycolysis flux with high lactate production and low cell concentration, or a low glycolysis flux with low lactate and high cell concentration. These different steady states, with different cell concentration, also have different productivity. Developing a mechanistic understanding of the occurrence of steady state multiplicity and devising a strategy to steer the culture toward the desired steady state is critical. We establish a multi-scale kinetic model that integrates a mechanistic intracellular metabolic model and cell growth model in a continuous bioreactor. We show that steady state multiplicity exists in a range of dilution rate in continuous culture as a result of the bistable behavior in glycolysis. The insights from the model were used to devise strategies to guide the culture to the desired steady state in the multiple steady state region. The model provides a guideline principle in the design of continuous culture processes of mammalian cells. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Funding Model for Community College Operating Costs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lausberg, Clement H.

This state- and national-level funding model was designed to assist community and junior college administrators, state agency officials, and officers in the executive and legislative branches of state government. The principal objectives of the model are to: (1) officially recognize post-secondary education as a public responsibility; (2) equalize…

A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano

2012-11-01

In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.

Complex dynamics of a nonlinear voter model with contrarian agents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanabe, Shoma; Masuda, Naoki, E-mail: masuda@mist.i.u-tokyo.ac.jp

2013-12-15

We investigate mean-field dynamics of a nonlinear opinion formation model with congregator and contrarian agents. Each agent assumes one of the two possible states. Congregators imitate the state of other agents with a rate that increases with the number of other agents in the opposite state, as in the linear voter model and nonlinear majority voting models. Contrarians flip the state with a rate that increases with the number of other agents in the same state. The nonlinearity controls the strength of the majority voting and is used as a main bifurcation parameter. We show that the model undergoes amore » rich bifurcation scenario comprising the egalitarian equilibrium, two symmetric lopsided equilibria, limit cycle, and coexistence of different types of stable equilibria with intertwining attractive basins.« less

Anatomy of an error: a bidirectional state model of task engagement/disengagement and attention-related errors.

PubMed

Allan Cheyne, J; Solman, Grayden J F; Carriere, Jonathan S A; Smilek, Daniel

2009-04-01

We present arguments and evidence for a three-state attentional model of task engagement/disengagement. The model postulates three states of mind-wandering: occurrent task inattention, generic task inattention, and response disengagement. We hypothesize that all three states are both causes and consequences of task performance outcomes and apply across a variety of experimental and real-world tasks. We apply this model to the analysis of a widely used GO/NOGO task, the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART). We identify three performance characteristics of the SART that map onto the three states of the model: RT variability, anticipations, and omissions. Predictions based on the model are tested, and largely corroborated, via regression and lag-sequential analyses of both successful and unsuccessful withholding on NOGO trials as well as self-reported mind-wandering and everyday cognitive errors. The results revealed theoretically consistent temporal associations among the state indicators and between these and SART errors as well as with self-report measures. Lag analysis was consistent with the hypotheses that temporal transitions among states are often extremely abrupt and that the association between mind-wandering and performance is bidirectional. The bidirectional effects suggest that errors constitute important occasions for reactive mind-wandering. The model also enables concrete phenomenological, behavioral, and physiological predictions for future research.

Role of spin-orbit coupling in the Kugel-Khomskii model on the honeycomb lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga, Akihisa; Nakauchi, Shiryu; Nasu, Joji

2018-03-01

We study the effective spin-orbital model for honeycomb-layered transition metal compounds, applying the second-order perturbation theory to the three-orbital Hubbard model with the anisotropic hoppings. This model is reduced to the Kitaev model in the strong spin-orbit coupling limit. Combining the cluster mean-field approximations with the exact diagonalization, we treat the Kugel-Khomskii type superexchange interaction and spin-orbit coupling on an equal footing to discuss ground-state properties. We find that a zigzag ordered state is realized in the model within nearest-neighbor interactions. We clarify how the ordered state competes with the nonmagnetic state, which is adiabatically connected to the quantum spin liquid state realized in a strong spin-orbit coupling limit. Thermodynamic properties are also addressed. The present paper should provide another route to account for the Kitaev-based magnetic properties in candidate materials.

Noninformative prior in the quantum statistical model of pure states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Fuyuhiko

2012-06-01

In the present paper, we consider a suitable definition of a noninformative prior on the quantum statistical model of pure states. While the full pure-states model is invariant under unitary rotation and admits the Haar measure, restricted models, which we often see in quantum channel estimation and quantum process tomography, have less symmetry and no compelling rationale for any choice. We adopt a game-theoretic approach that is applicable to classical Bayesian statistics and yields a noninformative prior for a general class of probability distributions. We define the quantum detection game and show that there exist noninformative priors for a general class of a pure-states model. Theoretically, it gives one of the ways that we represent ignorance on the given quantum system with partial information. Practically, our method proposes a default distribution on the model in order to use the Bayesian technique in the quantum-state tomography with a small sample.

Electro-thermal battery model identification for automotive applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Yurkovich, S.; Guezennec, Y.; Yurkovich, B. J.

This paper describes a model identification procedure for identifying an electro-thermal model of lithium ion batteries used in automotive applications. The dynamic model structure adopted is based on an equivalent circuit model whose parameters are scheduled on the state-of-charge, temperature, and current direction. Linear spline functions are used as the functional form for the parametric dependence. The model identified in this way is valid inside a large range of temperatures and state-of-charge, so that the resulting model can be used for automotive applications such as on-board estimation of the state-of-charge and state-of-health. The model coefficients are identified using a multiple step genetic algorithm based optimization procedure designed for large scale optimization problems. The validity of the procedure is demonstrated experimentally for an A123 lithium ion iron-phosphate battery.

A Linear Programming Model to Optimize Various Objective Functions of a Foundation Type State Support Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matzke, Orville R.

The purpose of this study was to formulate a linear programming model to simulate a foundation type support program and to apply this model to a state support program for the public elementary and secondary school districts in the State of Iowa. The model was successful in producing optimal solutions to five objective functions proposed for…

Information flow in an atmospheric model and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-12-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background state estimate with new observations, and the cycle repeats. In an ensemble Kalman filter, the probability distribution of the state estimate is represented by an ensemble of sample states, and the covariance matrix is calculated using the ensemble of sample states. We perform numerical experiments on toy atmospheric models introduced by Lorenz in 2005 to study the information flow in an atmospheric model in conjunction with ensemble Kalman filtering for data assimilation. This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part of this dissertation is about the propagation of information and the use of localization in ensemble Kalman filtering. If we can perform data assimilation locally by considering the observations and the state variables only near each grid point, then we can reduce the number of ensemble members necessary to cover the probability distribution of the state estimate, reducing the computational cost for the data assimilation and the model integration. Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of localization is currently lacking. We address these issues and elucidate the role played by chaotic wave dynamics in the propagation of information and the resulting impact on forecasts. The second part of this dissertation is about ensemble regional data assimilation using joint states. Assuming that we have a global model and a regional model of higher accuracy defined in a subregion inside the global region, we propose a data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model simultaneously, considering forecast information from both models. We show that our new data assimilation scheme produces better results both in the subregion and the global region than the data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model separately.

Self-organization comprehensive real-time state evaluation model for oil pump unit on the basis of operating condition classification and recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Wei; Yu, Xuchao; Zhang, Laibin; Lu, Wenqing

2018-05-01

In oil transmission station, the operating condition (OC) of an oil pump unit sometimes switches accordingly, which will lead to changes in operating parameters. If not taking the switching of OCs into consideration while performing a state evaluation on the pump unit, the accuracy of evaluation would be largely influenced. Hence, in this paper, a self-organization Comprehensive Real-Time State Evaluation Model (self-organization CRTSEM) is proposed based on OC classification and recognition. However, the underlying model CRTSEM is built through incorporating the advantages of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model (FCEM) first. That is to say, independent state models are established for every state characteristic parameter according to their distribution types (i.e. the Gaussian distribution and logistic regression distribution). Meanwhile, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is utilized to calculate the weights of state characteristic parameters. Then, the OC classification is determined by the types of oil delivery tasks, and CRTSEMs of different standard OCs are built to constitute the CRTSEM matrix. On the other side, the OC recognition is realized by a self-organization model that is established on the basis of Back Propagation (BP) model. After the self-organization CRTSEM is derived through integration, real-time monitoring data can be inputted for OC recognition. At the end, the current state of the pump unit can be evaluated by using the right CRTSEM. The case study manifests that the proposed self-organization CRTSEM can provide reasonable and accurate state evaluation results for the pump unit. Besides, the assumption that the switching of OCs will influence the results of state evaluation is also verified.

GLIMPSE: An integrated assessment model-based tool for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dan Loughlin will describe the GCAM-USA integrated assessment model and how that model is being improved and integrated into the GLIMPSE decision support system. He will also demonstrate the application of the model to evaluate the emissions and health implications of hypothetical state-level renewable electricity standards. Introduce the GLIMPSE project to state and regional environmental modelers and analysts. Presented as part of the State Energy and Air Quality Group Webinar Series, which is organized by NESCAUM.

Dynamics of Electronically Excited Species in Gaseous and Condensed Phase

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

heatbath models of condensed phase helium, (3) development of models of condensed phase hydrogen and (4) development of simulation procedures for solution... Modelling and Computer Experiments 93 Introduction 93 Monte Carlo Simulations of Helium Bubble States 94 Heatbath Models f6r Helium Bubble States 114...ILLUSTRATIONS 1 He-He* potential energy curves and couplings for two-state model . 40 2 Cross section for He(1P) quenching to He( 3S) 42 3 Opacity

Temporal BYY encoding, Markovian state spaces, and space dimension determination.

PubMed

Xu, Lei

2004-09-01

As a complementary to those temporal coding approaches of the current major stream, this paper aims at the Markovian state space temporal models from the perspective of the temporal Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) learning with both new insights and new results on not only the discrete state featured Hidden Markov model and extensions but also the continuous state featured linear state spaces and extensions, especially with a new learning mechanism that makes selection of the state number or the dimension of state space either automatically during adaptive learning or subsequently after learning via model selection criteria obtained from this mechanism. Experiments are demonstrated to show how the proposed approach works.

Chimera states in a Hodgkin-Huxley model of thermally sensitive neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaze, Tera A.; Lewis, Scott; Bahar, Sonya

2016-08-01

Chimera states occur when identically coupled groups of nonlinear oscillators exhibit radically different dynamics, with one group exhibiting synchronized oscillations and the other desynchronized behavior. This dynamical phenomenon has recently been studied in computational models and demonstrated experimentally in mechanical, optical, and chemical systems. The theoretical basis of these states is currently under active investigation. Chimera behavior is of particular relevance in the context of neural synchronization, given the phenomenon of unihemispheric sleep and the recent observation of asymmetric sleep in human patients with sleep apnea. The similarity of neural chimera states to neural "bump" states, which have been suggested as a model for working memory and visual orientation tuning in the cortex, adds to their interest as objects of study. Chimera states have been demonstrated in the FitzHugh-Nagumo model of excitable cells and in the Hindmarsh-Rose neural model. Here, we demonstrate chimera states and chimera-like behaviors in a Hodgkin-Huxley-type model of thermally sensitive neurons both in a system with Abrams-Strogatz (mean field) coupling and in a system with Kuramoto (distance-dependent) coupling. We map the regions of parameter space for which chimera behavior occurs in each of the two coupling schemes.

Distinguishing State Variability From Trait Change in Longitudinal Data: The Role of Measurement (Non)Invariance in Latent State-Trait Analyses

PubMed Central

Geiser, Christian; Keller, Brian T.; Lockhart, Ginger; Eid, Michael; Cole, David A.; Koch, Tobias

2014-01-01

Researchers analyzing longitudinal data often want to find out whether the process they study is characterized by (1) short-term state variability, (2) long-term trait change, or (3) a combination of state variability and trait change. Classical latent state-trait (LST) models are designed to measure reversible state variability around a fixed set-point or trait, whereas latent growth curve (LGC) models focus on long-lasting and often irreversible trait changes. In the present paper, we contrast LST and LGC models from the perspective of measurement invariance (MI) testing. We show that establishing a pure state-variability process requires (a) the inclusion of a mean structure and (b) establishing strong factorial invariance in LST analyses. Analytical derivations and simulations demonstrate that LST models with non-invariant parameters can mask the fact that a trait-change or hybrid process has generated the data. Furthermore, the inappropriate application of LST models to trait change or hybrid data can lead to bias in the estimates of consistency and occasion-specificity, which are typically of key interest in LST analyses. Four tips for the proper application of LST models are provided. PMID:24652650

Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Parameters in Nonlinear State-Space Models of Biochemical Networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiaodian; Jin, Li; Xiong, Momiao

2008-01-01

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks. PMID:19018286

Einstein's steady-state theory: an abandoned model of the cosmos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Raifeartaigh, Cormac; McCann, Brendan; Nahm, Werner; Mitton, Simon

2014-09-01

We present a translation and analysis of an unpublished manuscript by Albert Einstein in which he attempted to construct a `steady-state' model of the universe. The manuscript, which appears to have been written in early 1931, demonstrates that Einstein once explored a cosmic model in which the mean density of matter in an expanding universe is maintained constant by the continuous formation of matter from empty space. This model is very different to previously known Einsteinian models of the cosmos (both static and dynamic) but anticipates the later steady-state cosmology of Hoyle, Bondi and Gold in some ways. We find that Einstein's steady-state model contains a fundamental flaw and suggest that it was abandoned for this reason. We also suggest that he declined to explore a more sophisticated version because he found such theories rather contrived. The manuscript is of historical interest because it reveals that Einstein debated between steady-state and evolving models of the cosmos decades before a similar debate took place in the cosmological community.

Land management in the American southwest: a state-and-transition approach to ecosystem complexity.

PubMed

Bestelmeyer, Brandon T; Herrick, Jeffrey E; Brown, Joel R; Trujillo, David A; Havstad, Kris M

2004-07-01

State-and-transition models are increasingly being used to guide rangeland management. These models provide a relatively simple, management-oriented way to classify land condition (state) and to describe the factors that might cause a shift to another state (a transition). There are many formulations of state-and-transition models in the literature. The version we endorse does not adhere to any particular generalities about ecosystem dynamics, but it includes consideration of several kinds of dynamics and management response to them. In contrast to previous uses of state-and-transition models, we propose that models can, at present, be most effectively used to specify and qualitatively compare the relative benefits and potential risks of different management actions (e.g., fire and grazing) and other factors (e.g., invasive species and climate change) on specified areas of land. High spatial and temporal variability and complex interactions preclude the meaningful use of general quantitative models. Forecasts can be made on a case-by-case basis by interpreting qualitative and quantitative indicators, historical data, and spatially structured monitoring data based on conceptual models. We illustrate how science- based conceptual models are created using several rangeland examples that vary in complexity. In doing so, we illustrate the implications of designating plant communities and states in models, accounting for varying scales of pattern in vegetation and soils, interpreting the presence of plant communities on different soils and dealing with our uncertainty about how those communities were assembled and how they will change in the future. We conclude with observations about how models have helped to improve management decision-making.

Object Oriented Modeling and Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaykhian, Gholam Ali

2007-01-01

The Object Oriented Modeling and Design seminar is intended for software professionals and students, it covers the concepts and a language-independent graphical notation that can be used to analyze problem requirements, and design a solution to the problem. The seminar discusses the three kinds of object-oriented models class, state, and interaction. The class model represents the static structure of a system, the state model describes the aspects of a system that change over time as well as control behavior and the interaction model describes how objects collaborate to achieve overall results. Existing knowledge of object oriented programming may benefit the learning of modeling and good design. Specific expectations are: Create a class model, Read, recognize, and describe a class model, Describe association and link, Show abstract classes used with multiple inheritance, Explain metadata, reification and constraints, Group classes into a package, Read, recognize, and describe a state model, Explain states and transitions, Read, recognize, and describe interaction model, Explain Use cases and use case relationships, Show concurrency in activity diagram, Object interactions in sequence diagram.

A framework model for water-sharing among co-basin states of a river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, N. K.; Azad, Shambhu

2018-05-01

A new framework model is presented in this study for sharing of water in a river basin using certain governing variables, in an effort to enhance the objectivity for a reasonable and equitable allocation of water among co-basin states. The governing variables were normalised to reduce the governing variables of different co-basin states of a river basin on same scale. In the absence of objective methods for evaluating the weights to be assigned to co-basin states for water allocation, a framework was conceptualised and formulated to determine the normalised weighting factors of different co-basin states as a function of the governing variables. The water allocation to any co-basin state had been assumed to be proportional to its struggle for equity, which in turn was assumed to be a function of the normalised discontent, satisfaction, and weighting factors of each co-basin state. System dynamics was used effectively to represent and solve the proposed model formulation. The proposed model was successfully applied to the Vamsadhara river basin located in the South-Eastern part of India, and a sensitivity analysis of the proposed model parameters was carried out to prove its robustness in terms of the proposed model convergence and validity over the broad spectrum values of the proposed model parameters. The solution converged quickly to a final allocation of 1444 million cubic metre (MCM) in the case of the Odisha co-basin state, and to 1067 MCM for the Andhra Pradesh co-basin state. The sensitivity analysis showed that the proposed model's allocation varied from 1584 MCM to 1336 MCM for Odisha state and from 927 to 1175 MCM for Andhra, depending upon the importance weights given to the governing variables for the calculation of the weighting factors. Thus, the proposed model was found to be very flexible to explore various policy options to arrive at a decision in a water sharing problem. It can therefore be effectively applied to any trans-boundary problem where there is conflict about water-sharing among co-basin states.

Maltreatment and Delinquency in China: Examining and Extending the Intervening Process of General Strain Theory.

PubMed

Gao, Yunjiao; Wong, Dennis S W; Yu, Yanping

2016-01-01

Using a sample of 1,163 adolescents from four middle schools in China, this study explores the intervening process of how adolescent maltreatment is related to delinquency within the framework of general strain theory (GST) by comparing two models. The first model is Agnew's integrated model of GST, which examines the mediating effects of social control, delinquent peer affiliation, state anger, and depression on the relationship between maltreatment and delinquency. Based on this model, with the intent to further explore the mediating effects of state anger and depression and to investigate whether their effects on delinquency can be demonstrated more through delinquent peer affiliation and social control, an extended model (Model 2) is proposed by the authors. The second model relates state anger to delinquent peer affiliation and state depression to social control. By comparing the fit indices and the significance of the hypothesized paths of the two models, the study found that the extended model can better reflect the mechanism of how maltreatment contributes to delinquency, whereas the original integrated GST model only receives partial support because of its failure to find the mediating effects of state negative emotions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Steady state phosphorus mass balance model during hemodialysis based on a pseudo one-compartment kinetic model.

PubMed

Leypoldt, John K; Agar, Baris U; Akonur, Alp; Gellens, Mary E; Culleton, Bruce F

2012-11-01

Mathematical models of phosphorus kinetics and mass balance during hemodialysis are in early development. We describe a theoretical phosphorus steady state mass balance model during hemodialysis based on a novel pseudo one-compartment kinetic model. The steady state mass balance model accounted for net intestinal absorption of phosphorus and phosphorus removal by both dialysis and residual kidney function. Analytical mathematical solutions were derived to describe time-dependent intradialytic and interdialytic serum phosphorus concentrations assuming hemodialysis treatments were performed symmetrically throughout a week. Results from the steady state phosphorus mass balance model are described for thrice weekly hemodialysis treatment prescriptions only. The analysis predicts 1) a minimal impact of dialyzer phosphorus clearance on predialysis serum phosphorus concentration using modern, conventional hemodialysis technology, 2) variability in the postdialysis-to-predialysis phosphorus concentration ratio due to differences in patient-specific phosphorus mobilization, and 3) the importance of treatment time in determining the predialysis serum phosphorus concentration. We conclude that a steady state phosphorus mass balance model can be developed based on a pseudo one-compartment kinetic model and that predictions from this model are consistent with previous clinical observations. The predictions from this mass balance model are theoretical and hypothesis-generating only; additional prospective clinical studies will be required for model confirmation.

High fidelity quasi steady-state aerodynamic model effects on race vehicle performance predictions using multi-body simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrfeld-Halterman, J. A.; Uddin, M.

2016-07-01

We described in this paper the development of a high fidelity vehicle aerodynamic model to fit wind tunnel test data over a wide range of vehicle orientations. We also present a comparison between the effects of this proposed model and a conventional quasi steady-state aerodynamic model on race vehicle simulation results. This is done by implementing both of these models independently in multi-body quasi steady-state simulations to determine the effects of the high fidelity aerodynamic model on race vehicle performance metrics. The quasi steady state vehicle simulation is developed with a multi-body NASCAR Truck vehicle model, and simulations are conducted for three different types of NASCAR race tracks, a short track, a one and a half mile intermediate track, and a higher speed, two mile intermediate race track. For each track simulation, the effects of the aerodynamic model on handling, maximum corner speed, and drive force metrics are analysed. The accuracy of the high-fidelity model is shown to reduce the aerodynamic model error relative to the conventional aerodynamic model, and the increased accuracy of the high fidelity aerodynamic model is found to have realisable effects on the performance metric predictions on the intermediate tracks resulting from the quasi steady-state simulation.

Quantum transverse-field Ising model on an infinite tree from matrix product states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagaj, Daniel; Farhi, Edward; Goldstone, Jeffrey; Shor, Peter; Sylvester, Igor

2008-06-01

We give a generalization to an infinite tree geometry of Vidal’s infinite time-evolving block decimation (iTEBD) algorithm [G. Vidal, Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 070201 (2007)] for simulating an infinite line of quantum spins. We numerically investigate the quantum Ising model in a transverse field on the Bethe lattice using the matrix product state ansatz. We observe a second order phase transition, with certain key differences from the transverse field Ising model on an infinite spin chain. We also investigate a transverse field Ising model with a specific longitudinal field. When the transverse field is turned off, this model has a highly degenerate ground state as opposed to the pure Ising model whose ground state is only doubly degenerate.

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). YES phase 1 yield feasibility report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Each state model was separately evaluated to determine if a projected performance to the country level would satisfy a 90/90 criterion. All state models, except the North Dakota and Kansas models, satisfied that criterion both for district estimates aggregated to the state level and for state estimates directly from the models. In addition to the tests of the 90/90 criterion, the models were examined for their ability to adequately respond to fluctuations in weather. This portion of the analysis was based on a subjective interpretation of values of certain description statistics. As a result, 10 of the 12 models were judged to respond inadequately to variation in weather-related variables.

Rate coefficients of exchange reactions accounting for vibrational excitation of reagents and products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kustova, E. V.; Savelev, A. S.; Kunova, O. V.

2018-05-01

Theoretical models for the vibrational state-resolved Zeldovich reaction are assessed by comparison with the results of quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations. An error in the model of Aliat is corrected; the model is generalized taking into account NO vibrational states. The proposed model is fairly simple and can be easily implemented to the software for non-equilibrium flow modeling. It provides a good agreement with the QCT rate coefficients in the whole range of temperatures and reagent/product vibrational states. The developed models are tested in simulations of vibrational and chemical relaxation of air mixture behind a shock wave. The importance of accounting for excitated NO vibrational states and accurate prediction of Zeldovich reactions rates is shown.

Competitive Electricity Market Regulation in the United States: A Primer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flores-Espino, Francisco; Tian, Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

The electricity system in the United States is a complex mechanism where different technologies, jurisdictions and regulatory designs interact. Today, two major models for electricity commercialization operate in the United States. One is the regulated monopoly model, in which vertically integrated electricity providers are regulated by state commissions. The other is the competitive model, in which power producers can openly access transmission infrastructure and participate in wholesale electricity markets. This paper describes the origins, evolution, and current status of the regulations that enable competitive markets in the United States.

Computer Modeling of Transportation-Generated Air Pollution : State-of-the-Art Survey, II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-06-01

THE STATE-OF-THE-ART IS SURVEYED IN AIR POLLUTION MODELLING WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE MODELING OF DISPERSION FROM TRANSPORTATION SOURCES. MODELS WHICH HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN IMPLEMENTED ARE STRESSED AND THE COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS OF THESE MODELS ARE...

Computer Modeling of Transportation-Generated Air Pollution : State-of-the-Art Survey, II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-06-01

The state-of-the-art is surveyed in air pollution modeling with particular emphasis on the modeling of dispersion from transportation sources. Models which have actually been implemented are stressed and the computational aspects of these models are ...

Computer Modeling of Transportation-Generated Air Pollution - a State-of-the-Art Survey

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-06-01

THE STATE-OF-THE-ART IS SURVEYED IN AIR POLLUTION MODELLING WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE MODELING OF DISPERSION FROM TRANSPORTATION SOURCES. MODELS WHICH HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN IMPLEMENTED ARE STRESSED AND THE COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS OF THESE MODELS ARE...

Analysis of membrane fusion as a two-state sequential process: evaluation of the stalk model.

PubMed

Weinreb, Gabriel; Lentz, Barry R

2007-06-01

We propose a model that accounts for the time courses of PEG-induced fusion of membrane vesicles of varying lipid compositions and sizes. The model assumes that fusion proceeds from an initial, aggregated vesicle state ((A) membrane contact) through two sequential intermediate states (I(1) and I(2)) and then on to a fusion pore state (FP). Using this model, we interpreted data on the fusion of seven different vesicle systems. We found that the initial aggregated state involved no lipid or content mixing but did produce leakage. The final state (FP) was not leaky. Lipid mixing normally dominated the first intermediate state (I(1)), but content mixing signal was also observed in this state for most systems. The second intermediate state (I(2)) exhibited both lipid and content mixing signals and leakage, and was sometimes the only leaky state. In some systems, the first and second intermediates were indistinguishable and converted directly to the FP state. Having also tested a parallel, two-intermediate model subject to different assumptions about the nature of the intermediates, we conclude that a sequential, two-intermediate model is the simplest model sufficient to describe PEG-mediated fusion in all vesicle systems studied. We conclude as well that a fusion intermediate "state" should not be thought of as a fixed structure (e.g., "stalk" or "transmembrane contact") of uniform properties. Rather, a fusion "state" describes an ensemble of similar structures that can have different mechanical properties. Thus, a "state" can have varying probabilities of having a given functional property such as content mixing, lipid mixing, or leakage. Our data show that the content mixing signal may occur through two processes, one correlated and one not correlated with leakage. Finally, we consider the implications of our results in terms of the "modified stalk" hypothesis for the mechanism of lipid pore formation. We conclude that our results not only support this hypothesis but also provide a means of analyzing fusion time courses so as to test it and gauge the mechanism of action of fusion proteins in the context of the lipidic hypothesis of fusion.

Exploring sensitivity of a multistate occupancy model to inform management decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, A.W.; Bailey, L.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2011-01-01

Dynamic occupancy models are often used to investigate questions regarding the processes that influence patch occupancy and are prominent in the fields of population and community ecology and conservation biology. Recently, multistate occupancy models have been developed to investigate dynamic systems involving more than one occupied state, including reproductive states, relative abundance states and joint habitat-occupancy states. Here we investigate the sensitivities of the equilibrium-state distribution of multistate occupancy models to changes in transition rates. We develop equilibrium occupancy expressions and their associated sensitivity metrics for dynamic multistate occupancy models. To illustrate our approach, we use two examples that represent common multistate occupancy systems. The first example involves a three-state dynamic model involving occupied states with and without successful reproduction (California spotted owl Strix occidentalis occidentalis), and the second involves a novel way of using a multistate occupancy approach to accommodate second-order Markov processes (wood frog Lithobates sylvatica breeding and metamorphosis). In many ways, multistate sensitivity metrics behave in similar ways as standard occupancy sensitivities. When equilibrium occupancy rates are low, sensitivity to parameters related to colonisation is high, while sensitivity to persistence parameters is greater when equilibrium occupancy rates are high. Sensitivities can also provide guidance for managers when estimates of transition probabilities are not available. Synthesis and applications. Multistate models provide practitioners a flexible framework to define multiple, distinct occupied states and the ability to choose which state, or combination of states, is most relevant to questions and decisions about their own systems. In addition to standard multistate occupancy models, we provide an example of how a second-order Markov process can be modified to fit a multistate framework. Assuming the system is near equilibrium, our sensitivity analyses illustrate how to investigate the sensitivity of the system-specific equilibrium state(s) to changes in transition rates. Because management will typically act on these transition rates, sensitivity analyses can provide valuable information about the potential influence of different actions and when it may be prudent to shift the focus of management among the various transition rates. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Cluster state generation in one-dimensional Kitaev honeycomb model via shortcut to adiabaticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyaw, Thi Ha; Kwek, Leong-Chuan

2018-04-01

We propose a mean to obtain computationally useful resource states also known as cluster states, for measurement-based quantum computation, via transitionless quantum driving algorithm. The idea is to cool the system to its unique ground state and tune some control parameters to arrive at computationally useful resource state, which is in one of the degenerate ground states. Even though there is set of conserved quantities already present in the model Hamiltonian, which prevents the instantaneous state to go to any other eigenstate subspaces, one cannot quench the control parameters to get the desired state. In that case, the state will not evolve. With involvement of the shortcut Hamiltonian, we obtain cluster states in fast-forward manner. We elaborate our proposal in the one-dimensional Kitaev honeycomb model, and show that the auxiliary Hamiltonian needed for the counterdiabatic driving is of M-body interaction.

Concepts, challenges, and successes in modeling thermodynamics of metabolism.

PubMed

Cannon, William R

2014-01-01

The modeling of the chemical reactions involved in metabolism is a daunting task. Ideally, the modeling of metabolism would use kinetic simulations, but these simulations require knowledge of the thousands of rate constants involved in the reactions. The measurement of rate constants is very labor intensive, and hence rate constants for most enzymatic reactions are not available. Consequently, constraint-based flux modeling has been the method of choice because it does not require the use of the rate constants of the law of mass action. However, this convenience also limits the predictive power of constraint-based approaches in that the law of mass action is used only as a constraint, making it difficult to predict metabolite levels or energy requirements of pathways. An alternative to both of these approaches is to model metabolism using simulations of states rather than simulations of reactions, in which the state is defined as the set of all metabolite counts or concentrations. While kinetic simulations model reactions based on the likelihood of the reaction derived from the law of mass action, states are modeled based on likelihood ratios of mass action. Both approaches provide information on the energy requirements of metabolic reactions and pathways. However, modeling states rather than reactions has the advantage that the parameters needed to model states (chemical potentials) are much easier to determine than the parameters needed to model reactions (rate constants). Herein, we discuss recent results, assumptions, and issues in using simulations of state to model metabolism.

Genetic Algorithm-Based Model Order Reduction of Aeroservoelastic Systems with Consistant States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter M.; Brenner, Martin J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a model order reduction framework to construct linear parameter-varying reduced-order models of flexible aircraft for aeroservoelasticity analysis and control synthesis in broad two-dimensional flight parameter space. Genetic algorithms are used to automatically determine physical states for reduction and to generate reduced-order models at grid points within parameter space while minimizing the trial-and-error process. In addition, balanced truncation for unstable systems is used in conjunction with the congruence transformation technique to achieve locally optimal realization and weak fulfillment of state consistency across the entire parameter space. Therefore, aeroservoelasticity reduced-order models at any flight condition can be obtained simply through model interpolation. The methodology is applied to the pitch-plant model of the X-56A Multi-Use Technology Testbed currently being tested at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. The present studies indicate that the reduced-order model with more than 12× reduction in the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels. The genetic-algorithm-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The interpolated aeroservoelasticity reduced order models exhibit smooth pole transition and continuously varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions, which verifies consistent state representation obtained by congruence transformation. The present model order reduction framework can be used by control engineers for robust aeroservoelasticity controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

General Method for Constructing Local Hidden Variable Models for Entangled Quantum States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, D.; Guerini, L.; Rabelo, R.; Skrzypczyk, P.

2016-11-01

Entanglement allows for the nonlocality of quantum theory, which is the resource behind device-independent quantum information protocols. However, not all entangled quantum states display nonlocality. A central question is to determine the precise relation between entanglement and nonlocality. Here we present the first general test to decide whether a quantum state is local, and show that the test can be implemented by semidefinite programing. This method can be applied to any given state and for the construction of new examples of states with local hidden variable models for both projective and general measurements. As applications, we provide a lower-bound estimate of the fraction of two-qubit local entangled states and present new explicit examples of such states, including those that arise from physical noise models, Bell-diagonal states, and noisy Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and W states.

A five states survivability model for missions with ground-to-air threats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erlandsson, Tina; Niklasson, Lars

2013-05-01

Fighter pilots are exposed to the risk of getting hit by enemy fire when flying missions with ground-to-air threats. A tactical support system including a survivability model could aid the pilot to assess and handle this risk. The survivability model presented here is a Markov model with five states; Undetected, Detected, Tracked, Engaged and Hit. The output from the model is the probabilities that the aircraft is in these states during the mission. The enemy's threat systems are represented with sensor and weapon areas and the transitions between the states depend on whether or not the aircraft is within any of these areas. Contrary to previous work, the model can capture the behaviors that the enemy's sensor systems communicate and that the risk of getting hit depends on the enemy's knowledge regarding the aircraft's kinematics. The paper includes a discussion regarding the interpretation of the states and the factors that influence the transitions between the states. Further developments are also identified for using the model to aid fighter pilots and operators of unmanned aerial vehicles with planning and evaluating missions as well as analyzing the situation during flight.

Recognition of human activity characteristics based on state transitions modeling technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elangovan, Vinayak; Shirkhodaie, Amir

2012-06-01

Human Activity Discovery & Recognition (HADR) is a complex, diverse and challenging task but yet an active area of ongoing research in the Department of Defense. By detecting, tracking, and characterizing cohesive Human interactional activity patterns, potential threats can be identified which can significantly improve situation awareness, particularly, in Persistent Surveillance Systems (PSS). Understanding the nature of such dynamic activities, inevitably involves interpretation of a collection of spatiotemporally correlated activities with respect to a known context. In this paper, we present a State Transition model for recognizing the characteristics of human activities with a link to a prior contextbased ontology. Modeling the state transitions between successive evidential events determines the activities' temperament. The proposed state transition model poses six categories of state transitions including: Human state transitions of Object handling, Visibility, Entity-entity relation, Human Postures, Human Kinematics and Distance to Target. The proposed state transition model generates semantic annotations describing the human interactional activities via a technique called Casual Event State Inference (CESI). The proposed approach uses a low cost kinect depth camera for indoor and normal optical camera for outdoor monitoring activities. Experimental results are presented here to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed technique.

State Identification for Planetary Rovers: Learning and Recognition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aycard, Olivier; Washington, Richard

1999-01-01

A planetary rover must be able to identify states where it should stop or change its plan. With limited and infrequent communication from ground, the rover must recognize states accurately. However, the sensor data is inherently noisy, so identifying the temporal patterns of data that correspond to interesting or important states becomes a complex problem. In this paper, we present an approach to state identification using second-order Hidden Markov Models. Models are trained automatically on a set of labeled training data; the rover uses those models to identify its state from the observed data. The approach is demonstrated on data from a planetary rover platform.

The Total Quality Management Model Department of Personnel State of Colorado,

DTIC Science & Technology

A panel of three members will present the Total Quality Management model recently designed for the Department of Personnel, State of Colorado. This model was selected to increase work quality and productivity of the Department and to exemplify Governor Romer’s commitment to quality work within state government.

Predicting landscape vegetation dynamics using state-and-transition simulation models

Treesearch

Colin J. Daniel; Leonardo Frid

2012-01-01

This paper outlines how state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to project changes in vegetation over time across a landscape. STSMs are stochastic, empirical simulation models that use an adapted Markov chain approach to predict how vegetation will transition between states over time, typically in response to interactions between succession,...

BADGER v1.0: A Fortran equation of state library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heltemes, T. A.; Moses, G. A.

2012-12-01

The BADGER equation of state library was developed to enable inertial confinement fusion plasma codes to more accurately model plasmas in the high-density, low-temperature regime. The code had the capability to calculate 1- and 2-T plasmas using the Thomas-Fermi model and an individual electron accounting model. Ion equation of state data can be calculated using an ideal gas model or via a quotidian equation of state with scaled binding energies. Electron equation of state data can be calculated via the ideal gas model or with an adaptation of the screened hydrogenic model with ℓ-splitting. The ionization and equation of state calculations can be done in local thermodynamic equilibrium or in a non-LTE mode using a variant of the Busquet equivalent temperature method. The code was written as a stand-alone Fortran library for ease of implementation by external codes. EOS results for aluminum are presented that show good agreement with the SESAME library and ionization calculations show good agreement with the FLYCHK code. Program summaryProgram title: BADGERLIB v1.0 Catalogue identifier: AEND_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEND_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 41 480 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2 904 451 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran 90. Computer: 32- or 64-bit PC, or Mac. Operating system: Windows, Linux, MacOS X. RAM: 249.496 kB plus 195.630 kB per isotope record in memory Classification: 19.1, 19.7. Nature of problem: Equation of State (EOS) calculations are necessary for the accurate simulation of high energy density plasmas. Historically, most EOS codes used in these simulations have relied on an ideal gas model. This model is inadequate for low-temperature, high-density plasma conditions; the gaseous and liquid phases; and the solid phase. The BADGER code was developed to give more realistic EOS data in these regimes. Solution method: BADGER has multiple, user-selectable models to treat the ions, average-atom ionization state and electrons. Ion models are ideal gas and quotidian equation of state (QEOS), ionization models are Thomas-Fermi and individual accounting method (IEM) formulation of the screened hydrogenic model (SHM) with l-splitting, electron ionization models are ideal gas and a Helmholtz free energy minimization method derived from the SHM. The default equation of state and ionization models are appropriate for plasmas in local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). The code can calculate non-LTE equation of state (EOS) and ionization data using a simplified form of the Busquet equivalent-temperature method. Restrictions: Physical data are only provided for elements Z=1 to Z=86. Multiple solid phases are not currently supported. Liquid, gas and plasma phases are combined into a generalized "fluid" phase. Unusual features: BADGER divorces the calculation of average-atom ionization from the electron equation of state model, allowing the user to select ionization and electron EOS models that are most appropriate to the simulation. The included ion ideal gas model uses ground-state nuclear spin data to differentiate between isotopes of a given element. Running time: Example provided only takes a few seconds to run.

[Development of Markov models for economics evaluation of strategies on hepatitis B vaccination and population-based antiviral treatment in China].

PubMed

Yang, P C; Zhang, S X; Sun, P P; Cai, Y L; Lin, Y; Zou, Y H

2017-07-10

Objective: To construct the Markov models to reflect the reality of prevention and treatment interventions against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, simulate the natural history of HBV infection in different age groups and provide evidence for the economics evaluations of hepatitis B vaccination and population-based antiviral treatment in China. Methods: According to the theory and techniques of Markov chain, the Markov models of Chinese HBV epidemic were developed based on the national data and related literature both at home and abroad, including the settings of Markov model states, allowable transitions and initial and transition probabilities. The model construction, operation and verification were conducted by using software TreeAge Pro 2015. Results: Several types of Markov models were constructed to describe the disease progression of HBV infection in neonatal period, perinatal period or adulthood, the progression of chronic hepatitis B after antiviral therapy, hepatitis B prevention and control in adults, chronic hepatitis B antiviral treatment and the natural progression of chronic hepatitis B in general population. The model for the newborn was fundamental which included ten states, i.e . susceptiblity to HBV, HBsAg clearance, immune tolerance, immune clearance, low replication, HBeAg negative CHB, compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death. The susceptible state to HBV was excluded in the perinatal period model, and the immune tolerance state was excluded in the adulthood model. The model for general population only included two states, survive and death. Among the 5 types of models, there were 9 initial states assigned with initial probabilities, and 27 states for transition probabilities. The results of model verifications showed that the probability curves were basically consistent with the situation of HBV epidemic in China. Conclusion: The Markov models developed can be used in economics evaluation of hepatitis B vaccination and treatment for the elimination of HBV infection in China though the structures and parameters in the model have uncertainty with dynamic natures.

Behavior of the maximum likelihood in quantum state tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholten, Travis L.; Blume-Kohout, Robin

2018-02-01

Quantum state tomography on a d-dimensional system demands resources that grow rapidly with d. They may be reduced by using model selection to tailor the number of parameters in the model (i.e., the size of the density matrix). Most model selection methods typically rely on a test statistic and a null theory that describes its behavior when two models are equally good. Here, we consider the loglikelihood ratio. Because of the positivity constraint ρ ≥ 0, quantum state space does not generally satisfy local asymptotic normality (LAN), meaning the classical null theory for the loglikelihood ratio (the Wilks theorem) should not be used. Thus, understanding and quantifying how positivity affects the null behavior of this test statistic is necessary for its use in model selection for state tomography. We define a new generalization of LAN, metric-projected LAN, show that quantum state space satisfies it, and derive a replacement for the Wilks theorem. In addition to enabling reliable model selection, our results shed more light on the qualitative effects of the positivity constraint on state tomography.

Behavior of the maximum likelihood in quantum state tomography

DOE PAGES

Blume-Kohout, Robin J; Scholten, Travis L.

2018-02-22

Quantum state tomography on a d-dimensional system demands resources that grow rapidly with d. They may be reduced by using model selection to tailor the number of parameters in the model (i.e., the size of the density matrix). Most model selection methods typically rely on a test statistic and a null theory that describes its behavior when two models are equally good. Here, we consider the loglikelihood ratio. Because of the positivity constraint ρ ≥ 0, quantum state space does not generally satisfy local asymptotic normality (LAN), meaning the classical null theory for the loglikelihood ratio (the Wilks theorem) shouldmore » not be used. Thus, understanding and quantifying how positivity affects the null behavior of this test statistic is necessary for its use in model selection for state tomography. We define a new generalization of LAN, metric-projected LAN, show that quantum state space satisfies it, and derive a replacement for the Wilks theorem. In addition to enabling reliable model selection, our results shed more light on the qualitative effects of the positivity constraint on state tomography.« less

Behavior of the maximum likelihood in quantum state tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blume-Kohout, Robin J; Scholten, Travis L.

Quantum state tomography on a d-dimensional system demands resources that grow rapidly with d. They may be reduced by using model selection to tailor the number of parameters in the model (i.e., the size of the density matrix). Most model selection methods typically rely on a test statistic and a null theory that describes its behavior when two models are equally good. Here, we consider the loglikelihood ratio. Because of the positivity constraint ρ ≥ 0, quantum state space does not generally satisfy local asymptotic normality (LAN), meaning the classical null theory for the loglikelihood ratio (the Wilks theorem) shouldmore » not be used. Thus, understanding and quantifying how positivity affects the null behavior of this test statistic is necessary for its use in model selection for state tomography. We define a new generalization of LAN, metric-projected LAN, show that quantum state space satisfies it, and derive a replacement for the Wilks theorem. In addition to enabling reliable model selection, our results shed more light on the qualitative effects of the positivity constraint on state tomography.« less

Dynamic rupture modeling with laboratory-derived constitutive relations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Okubo, P.G.

1989-01-01

A laboratory-derived state variable friction constitutive relation is used in the numerical simulation of the dynamic growth of an in-plane or mode II shear crack. According to this formulation, originally presented by J.H. Dieterich, frictional resistance varies with the logarithm of the slip rate and with the logarithm of the frictional state variable as identified by A.L. Ruina. Under conditions of steady sliding, the state variable is proportional to (slip rate)-1. Following suddenly introduced increases in slip rate, the rate and state dependencies combine to produce behavior which resembles slip weakening. When rupture nucleation is artificially forced at fixed rupture velocity, rupture models calculated with the state variable friction in a uniformly distributed initial stress field closely resemble earlier rupture models calculated with a slip weakening fault constitutive relation. Model calculations suggest that dynamic rupture following a state variable friction relation is similar to that following a simpler fault slip weakening law. However, when modeling the full cycle of fault motions, rate-dependent frictional responses included in the state variable formulation are important at low slip rates associated with rupture nucleation. -from Author

Mathematical model of biological order state or syndrome in traditional Chinese medicine: based on electromagnetic radiation within the human body.

PubMed

Han, Jinxiang; Huang, Jinzhao

2012-03-01

In this study, based on the resonator model and exciplex model of electromagnetic radiation within the human body, mathematical model of biological order state, also referred to as syndrome in traditional Chinese medicine, was established and expressed as: "Sy = v/ 1n(6I + 1)". This model provides the theoretical foundation for experimental research addressing the order state of living system, especially the quantitative research syndrome in traditional Chinese medicine.

Computational Study of Nonequilibrium Chemistry in High Temperature Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doraiswamy, Sriram

Recent experimental measurements in the reflected shock tunnel CUBRC LENS-I facility raise questions about our ability to correctly model the recombination processes in high enthalpy flows. In the carbon dioxide flow, the computed shock standoff distance over the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) shape was less than half of the experimental result. For the oxygen flows, both pressure and heat transfer data on the double cone geometry were not correctly predicted. The objective of this work is to investigate possible reasons for these discrepancies. This process involves systematically addressing different factors that could possibly explain the differences. These factors include vibrational modeling, role of electronic states and chemistry-vibrational coupling in high enthalpy flows. A state-specific vibrational model for CO2, CO, O2 and O system is devised by taking into account the first few vibrational states of each species. All vibrational states with energies at or below 1 eV are included in the present work. Of the three modes of vibration in CO2 , the antisymmetric mode is considered separately from the symmetric stretching mode and the doubly degenerate bending modes. The symmetric and the bending modes are grouped together since the energy transfer rates between the two modes are very large due to Fermi resonance. The symmetric and bending modes are assumed to be in equilibrium with the translational and rotational modes. The kinetic rates for the vibrational-translation energy exchange reactions, and the intermolecular and intramolecular vibrational-vibrational energy exchange reactions are based on experimental data to the maximum extent possible. Extrapolation methods are employed when necessary. This vibrational model is then coupled with an axisymmetric computational fluid dynamics code to study the expansion of CO2 in a nozzle. The potential role of low lying electronic states is also investigated. Carbon dioxide has a single excited state just below the dissociation limit. CO and O recombine exclusively to this excited state and then relaxes to the ground electronic state. A simple model is proposed to represent the effect of this intermediate state in the recombination process. Preliminary results show that this excited electronic state is a potential reason for increased shock standoff distance observed in LENS facility. The general role of chemistry-vibrational coupling in modeling recombination dominated flows is also investigated. A state-specific model is developed to analyze the complex chemistry-vibration coupling present in high enthalpy nozzle flows. A basic model is formulated assuming molecules are formed at a specific vibrational level and then allowed to relax through a series of vibration-vibration and vibration-translation processes. This is carried out assuming that the molecules behave as either harmonic or anharmonic oscillators. The results are compared with the standard vibration-chemistry model for high enthalpy nozzle flows. Next, a prior recombination model that accounts for the rotational-vibrational coupling is used to obtain prior recombination distribution. A distribution of recombining states is obtained as a function of the total energy available to the system. The results of this model are compared with recent experiments. Additionally, a reduced model is formulated using the concepts of the state-specific model. The results of this reduced model is compared with the state specific model.

Force transients and minimum cross-bridge models in muscular contraction

PubMed Central

Halvorson, Herbert R.

2010-01-01

Two- and three-state cross-bridge models are considered and examined with respect to their ability to predict three distinct phases of the force transients that occur in response to step change in muscle fiber length. Particular attention is paid to satisfying the Le Châtelier–Brown Principle. This analysis shows that the two-state model can account for phases 1 and 2 of a force transient, but is barely adequate to account for phase 3 (delayed force) unless a stretch results in a sudden increase in the number of cross-bridges in the detached state. The three-state model (A → B → C → A) makes it possible to account for all three phases if we assume that the A → B transition is fast (corresponding to phase 2), the B → C transition is of intermediate speed (corresponding to phase 3), and the C → A transition is slow; in such a scenario, states A and C can support or generate force (high force states) but state B cannot (detached, or low-force state). This model involves at least one ratchet mechanism. In this model, force can be generated by either of two transitions: B → A or B → C. To determine which of these is the major force-generating step that consumes ATP and transduces energy, we examine the effects of ATP, ADP, and phosphate (Pi) on force transients. In doing so, we demonstrate that the fast transition (phase 2) is associated with the nucleotide-binding step, and that the intermediate-speed transition (phase 3) is associated with the Pi-release step. To account for all the effects of ligands, it is necessary to expand the three-state model into a six-state model that includes three ligand-bound states. The slowest phase of a force transient (phase 4) cannot be explained by any of the models described unless an additional mechanism is introduced. Here we suggest a role of series compliance to account for this phase, and propose a model that correlates the slowest step of the cross-bridge cycle (transition C → A) to: phase 4 of step analysis, the rate constant ktr of the quick-release and restretch experiment, and the rate constant kact for force development time course following Ca2+ activation. PMID:18425593

Force transients and minimum cross-bridge models in muscular contraction.

PubMed

Kawai, Masataka; Halvorson, Herbert R

2007-01-01

Two- and three-state cross-bridge models are considered and examined with respect to their ability to predict three distinct phases of the force transients that occur in response to step change in muscle fiber length. Particular attention is paid to satisfying the Le Châtelier-Brown Principle. This analysis shows that the two-state model can account for phases 1 and 2 of a force transient, but is barely adequate to account for phase 3 (delayed force) unless a stretch results in a sudden increase in the number of cross-bridges in the detached state. The three-state model (A-->B-->C-->A) makes it possible to account for all three phases if we assume that the A-->B transition is fast (corresponding to phase 2), the B-->A transition is of intermediate speed (corresponding to phase 3), and the C-->A transition is slow; in such a scenario, states A and C can support or generate force (high force states) but state B cannot (detached, or low-force state). This model involves at least one ratchet mechanism. In this model, force can be generated by either of two transitions: B-->A or B-->C. To determine which of these is the major force-generating step that consumes ATP and transduces energy, we examine the effects of ATP, ADP, and phosphate (Pi) on force transients. In doing so, we demonstrate that the fast transition (phase 2) is associated with the nucleotide-binding step, and that the intermediate-speed transition (phase 3) is associated with the Pi-release step. To account for all the effects of ligands, it is necessary to expand the three-state model into a six-state model that includes three ligand-bound states. The slowest phase of a force transient (phase 4) cannot be explained by any of the models described unless an additional mechanism is introduced. Here we suggest a role of series compliance to account for this phase, and propose a model that correlates the slowest step of the cross-bridge cycle (transition C-->A) to: phase 4 of step analysis, the rate constant k(tr) of the quick-release and restretch experiment, and the rate constant k(act) for force development time course following Ca(2+) activation.

Steady state analysis of Boolean molecular network models via model reduction and computational algebra.

PubMed

Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Aguilar, Boris; Hinkelmann, Franziska; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

2014-06-26

A key problem in the analysis of mathematical models of molecular networks is the determination of their steady states. The present paper addresses this problem for Boolean network models, an increasingly popular modeling paradigm for networks lacking detailed kinetic information. For small models, the problem can be solved by exhaustive enumeration of all state transitions. But for larger models this is not feasible, since the size of the phase space grows exponentially with the dimension of the network. The dimension of published models is growing to over 100, so that efficient methods for steady state determination are essential. Several methods have been proposed for large networks, some of them heuristic. While these methods represent a substantial improvement in scalability over exhaustive enumeration, the problem for large networks is still unsolved in general. This paper presents an algorithm that consists of two main parts. The first is a graph theoretic reduction of the wiring diagram of the network, while preserving all information about steady states. The second part formulates the determination of all steady states of a Boolean network as a problem of finding all solutions to a system of polynomial equations over the finite number system with two elements. This problem can be solved with existing computer algebra software. This algorithm compares favorably with several existing algorithms for steady state determination. One advantage is that it is not heuristic or reliant on sampling, but rather determines algorithmically and exactly all steady states of a Boolean network. The code for the algorithm, as well as the test suite of benchmark networks, is available upon request from the corresponding author. The algorithm presented in this paper reliably determines all steady states of sparse Boolean networks with up to 1000 nodes. The algorithm is effective at analyzing virtually all published models even those of moderate connectivity. The problem for large Boolean networks with high average connectivity remains an open problem.

Steady state analysis of Boolean molecular network models via model reduction and computational algebra

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A key problem in the analysis of mathematical models of molecular networks is the determination of their steady states. The present paper addresses this problem for Boolean network models, an increasingly popular modeling paradigm for networks lacking detailed kinetic information. For small models, the problem can be solved by exhaustive enumeration of all state transitions. But for larger models this is not feasible, since the size of the phase space grows exponentially with the dimension of the network. The dimension of published models is growing to over 100, so that efficient methods for steady state determination are essential. Several methods have been proposed for large networks, some of them heuristic. While these methods represent a substantial improvement in scalability over exhaustive enumeration, the problem for large networks is still unsolved in general. Results This paper presents an algorithm that consists of two main parts. The first is a graph theoretic reduction of the wiring diagram of the network, while preserving all information about steady states. The second part formulates the determination of all steady states of a Boolean network as a problem of finding all solutions to a system of polynomial equations over the finite number system with two elements. This problem can be solved with existing computer algebra software. This algorithm compares favorably with several existing algorithms for steady state determination. One advantage is that it is not heuristic or reliant on sampling, but rather determines algorithmically and exactly all steady states of a Boolean network. The code for the algorithm, as well as the test suite of benchmark networks, is available upon request from the corresponding author. Conclusions The algorithm presented in this paper reliably determines all steady states of sparse Boolean networks with up to 1000 nodes. The algorithm is effective at analyzing virtually all published models even those of moderate connectivity. The problem for large Boolean networks with high average connectivity remains an open problem. PMID:24965213

Propulsion System Simulation Using the Toolbox for the Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic System T-MATS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Jeffryes W.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; May, Ryan D.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

A simulation toolbox has been developed for the creation of both steady-state and dynamic thermodynamic software models. This paper describes the Toolbox for the Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS), which combines generic thermodynamic and controls modeling libraries with a numerical iterative solver to create a framework for the development of thermodynamic system simulations, such as gas turbine engines. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of T-MATS, the theory used in the creation of the module sets, and a possible propulsion simulation architecture. A model comparison was conducted by matching steady-state performance results from a T-MATS developed gas turbine simulation to a well-documented steady-state simulation. Transient modeling capabilities are then demonstrated when the steady-state T-MATS model is updated to run dynamically.

Propulsion System Simulation Using the Toolbox for the Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Jeffryes W.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; May, Ryan D.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

A simulation toolbox has been developed for the creation of both steady-state and dynamic thermodynamic software models. This paper describes the Toolbox for the Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS), which combines generic thermodynamic and controls modeling libraries with a numerical iterative solver to create a framework for the development of thermodynamic system simulations, such as gas turbine engines. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of T-MATS, the theory used in the creation of the module sets, and a possible propulsion simulation architecture. A model comparison was conducted by matching steady-state performance results from a T-MATS developed gas turbine simulation to a well-documented steady-state simulation. Transient modeling capabilities are then demonstrated when the steady-state T-MATS model is updated to run dynamically.

Three real-time architectures - A study using reward models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sjogren, J. A.; Smith, R. M.

1990-01-01

Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the evolutionary behavior of the computer system by a continuous-time Markov chain, and a reward rate is associated with each state. In reliability/availability models, upstates have reward rate 1, and down states have reward rate zero associated with them. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Steady-state expected reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures which can be extracted from the Markov reward model. The diversity of areas where Markov reward models may be used is illustrated with a comparative study of three examples of interest to the fault tolerant computing community.

Hidden Markov models for evolution and comparative genomics analysis.

PubMed

Bykova, Nadezda A; Favorov, Alexander V; Mironov, Andrey A

2013-01-01

The problem of reconstruction of ancestral states given a phylogeny and data from extant species arises in a wide range of biological studies. The continuous-time Markov model for the discrete states evolution is generally used for the reconstruction of ancestral states. We modify this model to account for a case when the states of the extant species are uncertain. This situation appears, for example, if the states for extant species are predicted by some program and thus are known only with some level of reliability; it is common for bioinformatics field. The main idea is formulation of the problem as a hidden Markov model on a tree (tree HMM, tHMM), where the basic continuous-time Markov model is expanded with the introduction of emission probabilities of observed data (e.g. prediction scores) for each underlying discrete state. Our tHMM decoding algorithm allows us to predict states at the ancestral nodes as well as to refine states at the leaves on the basis of quantitative comparative genomics. The test on the simulated data shows that the tHMM approach applied to the continuous variable reflecting the probabilities of the states (i.e. prediction score) appears to be more accurate then the reconstruction from the discrete states assignment defined by the best score threshold. We provide examples of applying our model to the evolutionary analysis of N-terminal signal peptides and transcription factor binding sites in bacteria. The program is freely available at http://bioinf.fbb.msu.ru/~nadya/tHMM and via web-service at http://bioinf.fbb.msu.ru/treehmmweb.

Nearly Supersymmetric Dark Atoms

DOE PAGES

Behbahani, Siavosh R.; Jankowiak, Martin; Rube, Tomas; ...

2011-01-01

Theories of dark matter that support bound states are an intriguing possibility for the identity of the missing mass of the Universe. This article proposes a class of models of supersymmetric composite dark matter where the interactions with the Standard Model communicate supersymmetry breaking to the dark sector. In these models, supersymmetry breaking can be treated as a perturbation on the spectrum of bound states. Using a general formalism, the spectrum with leading supersymmetry effects is computed without specifying the details of the binding dynamics. The interactions of the composite states with the Standard Model are computed, and several benchmarkmore » models are described. General features of nonrelativistic supersymmetric bound states are emphasized.« less

Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

2014-03-01

The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

Sharp Contradiction for Local-Hidden-State Model in Quantum Steering

PubMed Central

Chen, Jing-Ling; Su, Hong-Yi; Xu, Zhen-Peng; Pati, Arun Kumar

2016-01-01

In quantum theory, no-go theorems are important as they rule out the existence of a particular physical model under consideration. For instance, the Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) theorem serves as a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden variable models by presenting a full contradiction for the multipartite GHZ states. However, the elegant GHZ argument for Bell’s nonlocality does not go through for bipartite Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) state. Recent study on quantum nonlocality has shown that the more precise description of EPR’s original scenario is “steering”, i.e., the nonexistence of local hidden state models. Here, we present a simple GHZ-like contradiction for any bipartite pure entangled state, thus proving a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden state models in the EPR paradox. This also indicates that the very simple steering paradox presented here is indeed the closest form to the original spirit of the EPR paradox. PMID:27562658

Sharp Contradiction for Local-Hidden-State Model in Quantum Steering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jing-Ling; Su, Hong-Yi; Xu, Zhen-Peng; Pati, Arun Kumar

2016-08-01

In quantum theory, no-go theorems are important as they rule out the existence of a particular physical model under consideration. For instance, the Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) theorem serves as a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden variable models by presenting a full contradiction for the multipartite GHZ states. However, the elegant GHZ argument for Bell’s nonlocality does not go through for bipartite Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) state. Recent study on quantum nonlocality has shown that the more precise description of EPR’s original scenario is “steering”, i.e., the nonexistence of local hidden state models. Here, we present a simple GHZ-like contradiction for any bipartite pure entangled state, thus proving a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden state models in the EPR paradox. This also indicates that the very simple steering paradox presented here is indeed the closest form to the original spirit of the EPR paradox.

A pairwise maximum entropy model accurately describes resting-state human brain networks

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Takamitsu; Hirose, Satoshi; Wada, Hiroyuki; Imai, Yoshio; Machida, Toru; Shirouzu, Ichiro; Konishi, Seiki; Miyashita, Yasushi; Masuda, Naoki

2013-01-01

The resting-state human brain networks underlie fundamental cognitive functions and consist of complex interactions among brain regions. However, the level of complexity of the resting-state networks has not been quantified, which has prevented comprehensive descriptions of the brain activity as an integrative system. Here, we address this issue by demonstrating that a pairwise maximum entropy model, which takes into account region-specific activity rates and pairwise interactions, can be robustly and accurately fitted to resting-state human brain activities obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, to validate the approximation of the resting-state networks by the pairwise maximum entropy model, we show that the functional interactions estimated by the pairwise maximum entropy model reflect anatomical connexions more accurately than the conventional functional connectivity method. These findings indicate that a relatively simple statistical model not only captures the structure of the resting-state networks but also provides a possible method to derive physiological information about various large-scale brain networks. PMID:23340410

Two-state model based on the block-localized wave function method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Yirong

2007-06-01

The block-localized wave function (BLW) method is a variant of ab initio valence bond method but retains the efficiency of molecular orbital methods. It can derive the wave function for a diabatic (resonance) state self-consistently and is available at the Hartree-Fock (HF) and density functional theory (DFT) levels. In this work we present a two-state model based on the BLW method. Although numerous empirical and semiempirical two-state models, such as the Marcus-Hush two-state model, have been proposed to describe a chemical reaction process, the advantage of this BLW-based two-state model is that no empirical parameter is required. Important quantities such as the electronic coupling energy, structural weights of two diabatic states, and excitation energy can be uniquely derived from the energies of two diabatic states and the adiabatic state at the same HF or DFT level. Two simple examples of formamide and thioformamide in the gas phase and aqueous solution were presented and discussed. The solvation of formamide and thioformamide was studied with the combined ab initio quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical Monte Carlo simulations, together with the BLW-DFT calculations and analyses. Due to the favorable solute-solvent electrostatic interaction, the contribution of the ionic resonance structure to the ground state of formamide and thioformamide significantly increases, and for thioformamide the ionic form is even more stable than the covalent form. Thus, thioformamide in aqueous solution is essentially ionic rather than covalent. Although our two-state model in general underestimates the electronic excitation energies, it can predict relative solvatochromic shifts well. For instance, the intense π →π* transition for formamide upon solvation undergoes a redshift of 0.3eV, compared with the experimental data (0.40-0.5eV).

Integrating Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics into State-and-Transition Simulation Models of Land Use/Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, B. M.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Fortin, M. J.

2016-12-01

State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general approach for incorporating uncertainty into forecasts of landscape change. Using a Monte Carlo approach, STSMs generate spatially-explicit projections of the state of a landscape based upon probabilistic transitions defined between states. While STSMs are based on the basic principles of Markov chains, they have additional properties that make them applicable to a wide range of questions and types of landscapes. A current limitation of STSMs is that they are only able to track the fate of discrete state variables, such as land use/land cover (LULC) classes. There are some landscape modelling questions, however, for which continuous state variables - for example carbon biomass - are also required. Here we present a new approach for integrating continuous state variables into spatially-explicit STSMs. Specifically we allow any number of continuous state variables to be defined for each spatial cell in our simulations; the value of each continuous variable is then simulated forward in discrete time as a stochastic process based upon defined rates of change between variables. These rates can be defined as a function of the realized states and transitions of each cell in the STSM, thus providing a connection between the continuous variables and the dynamics of the landscape. We demonstrate this new approach by (1) developing a simple IPCC Tier 3 compliant model of ecosystem carbon biomass, where the continuous state variables are defined as terrestrial carbon biomass pools and the rates of change as carbon fluxes between pools, and (2) integrating this carbon model with an existing LULC change model for the state of Hawaii, USA.

Integrating Kinetic Model of E. coli with Genome Scale Metabolic Fluxes Overcomes Its Open System Problem and Reveals Bistability in Central Metabolism

PubMed Central

Mannan, Ahmad A.; Toya, Yoshihiro; Shimizu, Kazuyuki; McFadden, Johnjoe; Kierzek, Andrzej M.; Rocco, Andrea

2015-01-01

An understanding of the dynamics of the metabolic profile of a bacterial cell is sought from a dynamical systems analysis of kinetic models. This modelling formalism relies on a deterministic mathematical description of enzyme kinetics and their metabolite regulation. However, it is severely impeded by the lack of available kinetic information, limiting the size of the system that can be modelled. Furthermore, the subsystem of the metabolic network whose dynamics can be modelled is faced with three problems: how to parameterize the model with mostly incomplete steady state data, how to close what is now an inherently open system, and how to account for the impact on growth. In this study we address these challenges of kinetic modelling by capitalizing on multi-‘omics’ steady state data and a genome-scale metabolic network model. We use these to generate parameters that integrate knowledge embedded in the genome-scale metabolic network model, into the most comprehensive kinetic model of the central carbon metabolism of E. coli realized to date. As an application, we performed a dynamical systems analysis of the resulting enriched model. This revealed bistability of the central carbon metabolism and thus its potential to express two distinct metabolic states. Furthermore, since our model-informing technique ensures both stable states are constrained by the same thermodynamically feasible steady state growth rate, the ensuing bistability represents a temporal coexistence of the two states, and by extension, reveals the emergence of a phenotypically heterogeneous population. PMID:26469081

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes

PubMed Central

Gibson, EJ; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, AA; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

2018-01-01

Background Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. Materials and methods This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Results The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Conclusion Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors. PMID:29563820

Physical realization of quantum teleportation for a nonmaximal entangled state

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori

2010-08-15

Recently, Kossakowski and Ohya (K-O) proposed a new teleportation scheme which enables perfect teleportation even for a nonmaximal entangled state [A. Kossakowski and M. Ohya, Infinite Dimensional Analysis Quantum Probability and Related Topics 10, 411 (2007)]. To discuss a physical realization of the K-O scheme, we propose a model based on quantum optics. In our model, we take a superposition of Schroedinger's cat states as an input state being sent from Alice to Bob, and their entangled state is generated by a photon number state through a beam splitter. When the average photon number for our input states is equalmore » to half the number of photons into the beam splitter, our model has high fidelity.« less

Altering state policy: interest group effectiveness among state-level advocacy groups.

PubMed

Hoefer, Richard

2005-07-01

Because social policy making continues to devolve to the state level, social workers should understand how advocacy and policy making occur at that level. Interest groups active in the human services arena were surveyed and data were used to test a model of interest group effectiveness in four states. The independent variables were amount of resources invested, strategy used, relationships with key actors, use of coalitions, and policy positions taken. Results indicate that the model explains low to middling amounts of the variation in group effectiveness. Results also show that the model fits different states to different degrees, indicating that social workers need to approach advocacy in different ways to achieve maximum effectiveness in altering state policy. Implications for altering state policy are provided.

Transitions in state public health law: comparative analysis of state public health law reform following the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act.

PubMed

Meier, Benjamin Mason; Hodge, James G; Gebbie, Kristine M

2009-03-01

Given the public health importance of law modernization, we undertook a comparative analysis of policy efforts in 4 states (Alaska, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) that have considered public health law reform based on the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act. Through national legislative tracking and state case studies, we investigated how the Turning Point Act's model legal language has been considered for incorporation into state law and analyzed key facilitating and inhibiting factors for public health law reform. Our findings provide the practice community with a research base to facilitate further law reform and inform future scholarship on the role of law as a determinant of the public's health.

One size does not fit all: Adapting mark-recapture and occupancy models for state uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Multistate capture?recapture models continue to be employed with greater frequency to test hypotheses about metapopulation dynamics and life history, and more recently disease dynamics. In recent years efforts have begun to adjust these models for cases where there is uncertainty about an animal?s state upon capture. These efforts can be categorized into models that permit misclassification between two states to occur in either direction or one direction, where state is certain for a subset of individuals or is always uncertain, and where estimation is based on one sampling occasion per period of interest or multiple sampling occasions per period. State uncertainty also arises in modeling patch occupancy dynamics. I consider several case studies involving bird and marine mammal studies that illustrate how misclassified states can arise, and outline model structures for properly utilizing the data that are produced. In each case misclassification occurs in only one direction (thus there is a subset of individuals or patches where state is known with certainty), and there are multiple sampling occasions per period of interest. For the cases involving capture?recapture data I allude to a general model structure that could include each example as a special case. However, this collection of cases also illustrates how difficult it is to develop a model structure that can be directly useful for answering every ecological question of interest and account for every type of data from the field.

The Impact of State Legislation and Model Policies on Bullying in Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terry, Amanda

2018-01-01

Background: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of the coverage of state legislation and the expansiveness ratings of state model policies on the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. Methods: The state-level prevalence of bullying in schools was based on cross-sectional data from the 2013 High School Youth Risk Behavior…

A Closed-Loop Model of Operator Visual Attention, Situation Awareness, and Performance Across Automation Mode Transitions.

PubMed

Johnson, Aaron W; Duda, Kevin R; Sheridan, Thomas B; Oman, Charles M

2017-03-01

This article describes a closed-loop, integrated human-vehicle model designed to help understand the underlying cognitive processes that influenced changes in subject visual attention, mental workload, and situation awareness across control mode transitions in a simulated human-in-the-loop lunar landing experiment. Control mode transitions from autopilot to manual flight may cause total attentional demands to exceed operator capacity. Attentional resources must be reallocated and reprioritized, which can increase the average uncertainty in the operator's estimates of low-priority system states. We define this increase in uncertainty as a reduction in situation awareness. We present a model built upon the optimal control model for state estimation, the crossover model for manual control, and the SEEV (salience, effort, expectancy, value) model for visual attention. We modify the SEEV attention executive to direct visual attention based, in part, on the uncertainty in the operator's estimates of system states. The model was validated using the simulated lunar landing experimental data, demonstrating an average difference in the percentage of attention ≤3.6% for all simulator instruments. The model's predictions of mental workload and situation awareness, measured by task performance and system state uncertainty, also mimicked the experimental data. Our model supports the hypothesis that visual attention is influenced by the uncertainty in system state estimates. Conceptualizing situation awareness around the metric of system state uncertainty is a valuable way for system designers to understand and predict how reallocations in the operator's visual attention during control mode transitions can produce reallocations in situation awareness of certain states.

Uncertainty in a Markov state model with missing states and rates: Application to a room temperature kinetic model obtained using high temperature molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Abhijit; Bhattacharya, Swati

2015-09-21

Several studies in the past have generated Markov State Models (MSMs), i.e., kinetic models, of biomolecular systems by post-analyzing long standard molecular dynamics (MD) calculations at the temperature of interest and focusing on the maximally ergodic subset of states. Questions related to goodness of these models, namely, importance of the missing states and kinetic pathways, and the time for which the kinetic model is valid, are generally left unanswered. We show that similar questions arise when we generate a room-temperature MSM (denoted MSM-A) for solvated alanine dipeptide using state-constrained MD calculations at higher temperatures and Arrhenius relation — the main advantage of such a procedure being a speed-up of several thousand times over standard MD-based MSM building procedures. Bounds for rate constants calculated using probability theory from state-constrained MD at room temperature help validate MSM-A. However, bounds for pathways possibly missing in MSM-A show that alternate kinetic models exist that produce the same dynamical behaviour at short time scales as MSM-A but diverge later. Even in the worst case scenario, MSM-A is found to be valid longer than the time required to generate it. Concepts introduced here can be straightforwardly extended to other MSM building techniques.

Discrete-state representation of ion permeation coupled to fast gating in a model of ClC chloride channels: comparison to multi-ion continuous space Brownian dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Coalson, Rob D; Cheng, Mary Hongying

2010-01-28

A discrete-state model of chloride ion motion in a ClC chloride channel is constructed, following a previously developed multi-ion continuous space model of the same system (Cheng, M. H.; Mamonov, A. B.; Dukes, J. W.; Coalson, R. D. J. Phys. Chem. B 2007, 111, 5956) that included a simplistic representation of the fast gate in this channel. The reducibility of the many-body continuous space to the eight discrete-state model considered in the present work is examined in detail by performing three-dimensional Brownian dynamics simulations of each allowed state-to-state transition in order to extract the appropriate rate constant for this process, and then inserting the pairwise rate constants thereby obtained into an appropriate set of kinetic master equations. Experimental properties of interest, including the rate of Cl(-) ion permeation through the open channel and the average rate of closing of the fast gate as a function of bulk Cl(-) ion concentrations in the intracellular and extracellular electrolyte reservoirs are computed. Good agreement is found between the results obtained via the eight discrete-state model versus the multi-ion continuous space model, thereby encouraging continued development of the discrete-state model to include more complex behaviors observed experimentally in these channels.

Wavelet modeling and prediction of the stability of states: the Roman Empire and the European Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaroshenko, Tatyana Y.; Krysko, Dmitri V.; Dobriyan, Vitalii; Zhigalov, Maksim V.; Vos, Hendrik; Vandenabeele, Peter; Krysko, Vadim A.

2015-09-01

How can the stability of a state be quantitatively determined and its future stability predicted? The rise and collapse of empires and states is very complex, and it is exceedingly difficult to understand and predict it. Existing theories are usually formulated as verbal models and, consequently, do not yield sharply defined, quantitative prediction that can be unambiguously validated with data. Here we describe a model that determines whether the state is in a stable or chaotic condition and predicts its future condition. The central model, which we test, is that growth and collapse of states is reflected by the changes of their territories, populations and budgets. The model was simulated within the historical societies of the Roman Empire (400 BC to 400 AD) and the European Union (1957-2007) by using wavelets and analysis of the sign change of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents. The model matches well with the historical events. During wars and crises, the state becomes unstable; this is reflected in the wavelet analysis by a significant increase in the frequency ω (t) and wavelet coefficients W (ω, t) and the sign of the largest Lyapunov exponent becomes positive, indicating chaos. We successfully reconstructed and forecasted time series in the Roman Empire and the European Union by applying artificial neural network. The proposed model helps to quantitatively determine and forecast the stability of a state.

Population decoding of motor cortical activity using a generalized linear model with hidden states.

PubMed

Lawhern, Vernon; Wu, Wei; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas; Paninski, Liam

2010-06-15

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been developed for modeling and decoding population neuronal spiking activity in the motor cortex. These models provide reasonable characterizations between neural activity and motor behavior. However, they lack a description of movement-related terms which are not observed directly in these experiments, such as muscular activation, the subject's level of attention, and other internal or external states. Here we propose to include a multi-dimensional hidden state to address these states in a GLM framework where the spike count at each time is described as a function of the hand state (position, velocity, and acceleration), truncated spike history, and the hidden state. The model can be identified by an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. We tested this new method in two datasets where spikes were simultaneously recorded using a multi-electrode array in the primary motor cortex of two monkeys. It was found that this method significantly improves the model-fitting over the classical GLM, for hidden dimensions varying from 1 to 4. This method also provides more accurate decoding of hand state (reducing the mean square error by up to 29% in some cases), while retaining real-time computational efficiency. These improvements on representation and decoding over the classical GLM model suggest that this new approach could contribute as a useful tool to motor cortical decoding and prosthetic applications. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population Decoding of Motor Cortical Activity using a Generalized Linear Model with Hidden States

PubMed Central

Lawhern, Vernon; Wu, Wei; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G.; Paninski, Liam

2010-01-01

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been developed for modeling and decoding population neuronal spiking activity in the motor cortex. These models provide reasonable characterizations between neural activity and motor behavior. However, they lack a description of movement-related terms which are not observed directly in these experiments, such as muscular activation, the subject's level of attention, and other internal or external states. Here we propose to include a multi-dimensional hidden state to address these states in a GLM framework where the spike count at each time is described as a function of the hand state (position, velocity, and acceleration), truncated spike history, and the hidden state. The model can be identified by an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. We tested this new method in two datasets where spikes were simultaneously recorded using a multi-electrode array in the primary motor cortex of two monkeys. It was found that this method significantly improves the model-fitting over the classical GLM, for hidden dimensions varying from 1 to 4. This method also provides more accurate decoding of hand state (lowering the Mean Square Error by up to 29% in some cases), while retaining real-time computational efficiency. These improvements on representation and decoding over the classical GLM model suggest that this new approach could contribute as a useful tool to motor cortical decoding and prosthetic applications. PMID:20359500

Development of a real-time crash risk prediction model incorporating the various crash mechanisms across different traffic states.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Wang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Zhang, Fangwei

2015-01-01

This study aimed to identify the traffic flow variables contributing to crash risks under different traffic states and to develop a real-time crash risk model incorporating the varying crash mechanisms across different traffic states. The crash, traffic, and geometric data were collected on the I-880N freeway in California in 2008 and 2009. This study considered 4 different traffic states in Wu's 4-phase traffic theory. They are free fluid traffic, bunched fluid traffic, bunched congested traffic, and standing congested traffic. Several different statistical methods were used to accomplish the research objective. The preliminary analysis showed that traffic states significantly affected crash likelihood, collision type, and injury severity. Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis (NLCCA) was conducted to identify the underlying phenomena that made certain traffic states more hazardous than others. The results suggested that different traffic states were associated with various collision types and injury severities. The matching of traffic flow characteristics and crash characteristics in NLCCA revealed how traffic states affected traffic safety. The logistic regression analyses showed that the factors contributing to crash risks were quite different across various traffic states. To incorporate the varying crash mechanisms across different traffic states, random parameters logistic regression was used to develop a real-time crash risk model. Bayesian inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations was used for model estimation. The parameters of traffic flow variables in the model were allowed to vary across different traffic states. Compared with the standard logistic regression model, the proposed model significantly improved the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance. These results can promote a better understanding of the relationship between traffic flow characteristics and crash risks, which is valuable knowledge in the pursuit of improving traffic safety on freeways through the use of dynamic safety management systems.

DUAL STATE-PARAMETER UPDATING SCHEME ON A CONCEPTUAL HYDROLOGIC MODEL USING SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO FILTERS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin

Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.

Proceedings of the First Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14–16, 2011, Portland, Oregon

Treesearch

Becky K. Kerns; Ayn J. Shlisky; Colin J. Daniel

2012-01-01

The first ever Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference was held from June 14–16, 2011, in Portland Oregon. The conference brought together over 70 users of state-and-transition simulation modeling tools—the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (VDDT), the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Analysis (TELSA) and the Path Landscape Model. The goal of the...

The Jormungand Global Climate State and Implications for the Neoproterozoic Snowball Paradox (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, D. S.; Voigt, A.; Koll, D.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.

2010-12-01

We present a previously undescribed global climate state, the Jormungand state, that is nearly ice-covered with a narrow (~10-15 degrees of latitude) strip of open ocean near the equator. This state is sustained by internal dynamics of the hydrological cycle and the cryosphere. There is a new bifurcation in global climate climate associated with the Jormungand state that leads to significant hysteresis. We investigate the Jormungand state in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, in multiple atmospheric GCMs coupled to a mixed layer ocean run in an idealized configuration, and we make a simple modification to the Budyko-Sellers model so that it produces Jormungand states. We suggest that the Jormungand state may be a better model for the Neoproterozoic glaciations (~635 Ma and ~715 Ma) than either the hard Snowball or the Slushball models. A Jormungand state would have a large enough region of open ocean near the equator to explain the micropaleontological and molecular clock evidence that photosynthetic eukaryotes thrived both before and immediately after the Neoproterozoic episodes. Additionally, since there is significant hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state, it can explain the cap carbonate sequences, the oxygen isotopic evidence that suggests high CO2 values, and the various evidence that suggests lifetimes for the glaciations of 1 Myrs or more. Since there is not significant hysteresis associated with the Slushball model, the Slushball model cannot explain these observations. Finally, we note that although the Slushball and Jormungand models share the characteristic of open ocean in the tropics, the Jormungand state is produced by entirely different physics, is entered through a new bifurcation in global climate, and is associated with significant hysteresis. Bifurcation diagram of global climate in the CAM global climate model, run with no continents, a 50 m mixed layer with no ocean heat transport, an eccentricity of zero, and annually and diurnally-varying insolation with a solar constant of 94% of present value. Red diamonds denote simulations initiated from ice-free conditions, blue circles denote simulations initiated from the Jormungand state, and green squares denote simulations initiated from the Snowball state. The black curve shows model equilibria, with dotted unstable solution branches (separatrices) and bifurcations drawn schematically.

Measuring up to the Model: A Ranking of State Charter Public School Laws. Eighth Edition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziebarth, Todd; Palmer, Louann Bierlein; Schultz, Emily

2017-01-01

This eighth edition of "Measuring up to the Model: A Ranking of State Charter School Laws" presents the latest activity in charter public school legislation across the country. This year's rankings are the first that measure each state's charter school law against the National Alliance's revised model charter school law, "A New…

Mathematical problems of quantum teleportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori

2011-03-01

It has been considered that a maximal entangled state is needed for complete quantum teleportation. However, Kossakowski and Ohya proposed a scheme of complete teleportation for nonmaximal entangled state [1]. Basing on their scheme, we proposed a teleportation model of 2-level state with a non-maximal entangled state [2]. In the present study, we construct its expanded model, in which Alice can teleport m-level state even if non-maximal entangled state is used.

Modeling Requirements for Cohort and Register IT.

PubMed

Stäubert, Sebastian; Weber, Ulrike; Michalik, Claudia; Dress, Jochen; Ngouongo, Sylvie; Stausberg, Jürgen; Winter, Alfred

2016-01-01

The project KoRegIT (funded by TMF e.V.) aimed to develop a generic catalog of requirements for research networks like cohort studies and registers (KoReg). The catalog supports such kind of research networks to build up and to manage their organizational and IT infrastructure. To make transparent the complex relationships between requirements, which are described in use cases from a given text catalog. By analyzing and modeling the requirements a better understanding and optimizations of the catalog are intended. There are two subgoals: a) to investigate one cohort study and two registers and to model the current state of their IT infrastructure; b) to analyze the current state models and to find simplifications within the generic catalog. Processing the generic catalog was performed by means of text extraction, conceptualization and concept mapping. Then methods of enterprise architecture planning (EAP) are used to model the extracted information. To work on objective a) questionnaires are developed by utilizing the model. They are used for semi-structured interviews, whose results are evaluated via qualitative content analysis. Afterwards the current state was modeled. Objective b) was done by model analysis. A given generic text catalog of requirements was transferred into a model. As result of objective a) current state models of one existing cohort study and two registers are created and analyzed. An optimized model called KoReg-reference-model is the result of objective b). It is possible to use methods of EAP to model requirements. This enables a better overview of the partly connected requirements by means of visualization. The model based approach also enables the analysis and comparison of the empirical data from the current state models. Information managers could reduce the effort of planning the IT infrastructure utilizing the KoReg-reference-model. Modeling the current state and the generation of reports from the model, which could be used as requirements specification for bids, is supported, too.

A physics-based fractional order model and state of energy estimation for lithium ion batteries. Part II: Parameter identification and state of energy estimation for LiFePO4 battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoyu; Pan, Ke; Fan, Guodong; Lu, Rengui; Zhu, Chunbo; Rizzoni, Giorgio; Canova, Marcello

2017-11-01

State of energy (SOE) is an important index for the electrochemical energy storage system in electric vehicles. In this paper, a robust state of energy estimation method in combination with a physical model parameter identification method is proposed to achieve accurate battery state estimation at different operating conditions and different aging stages. A physics-based fractional order model with variable solid-state diffusivity (FOM-VSSD) is used to characterize the dynamic performance of a LiFePO4/graphite battery. In order to update the model parameter automatically at different aging stages, a multi-step model parameter identification method based on the lexicographic optimization is especially designed for the electric vehicle operating conditions. As the battery available energy changes with different applied load current profiles, the relationship between the remaining energy loss and the state of charge, the average current as well as the average squared current is modeled. The SOE with different operating conditions and different aging stages are estimated based on an adaptive fractional order extended Kalman filter (AFEKF). Validation results show that the overall SOE estimation error is within ±5%. The proposed method is suitable for the electric vehicle online applications.

Stochastic spectral projection of electrochemical thermal model for lithium-ion cell state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagade, Piyush; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Oh, Dukjin

2017-03-01

A novel approach for integrating a pseudo-two dimensional electrochemical thermal (P2D-ECT) model and data assimilation algorithm is presented for lithium-ion cell state estimation. This approach refrains from making any simplifications in the P2D-ECT model while making it amenable for online state estimation. Though deterministic, uncertainty in the initial states induces stochasticity in the P2D-ECT model. This stochasticity is resolved by spectrally projecting the stochastic P2D-ECT model on a set of orthogonal multivariate Hermite polynomials. Volume averaging in the stochastic dimensions is proposed for efficient numerical solution of the resultant model. A state estimation framework is developed using a transformation of the orthogonal basis to assimilate the measurables with this system of equations. Effectiveness of the proposed method is first demonstrated by assimilating the cell voltage and temperature data generated using a synthetic test bed. This validated method is used with the experimentally observed cell voltage and temperature data for state estimation at different operating conditions and drive cycle protocols. The results show increased prediction accuracy when the data is assimilated every 30s. High accuracy of the estimated states is exploited to infer temperature dependent behavior of the lithium-ion cell.

Quantum-like model of brain's functioning: decision making from decoherence.

PubMed

Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei

2011-07-21

We present a quantum-like model of decision making in games of the Prisoner's Dilemma type. By this model the brain processes information by using representation of mental states in a complex Hilbert space. Driven by the master equation the mental state of a player, say Alice, approaches an equilibrium point in the space of density matrices (representing mental states). This equilibrium state determines Alice's mixed (i.e., probabilistic) strategy. We use a master equation in which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction with environment. Thus our model is a model of thinking through decoherence of the initially pure mental state. Decoherence is induced by the interaction with memory and the external mental environment. We study (numerically) the dynamics of quantum entropy of Alice's mental state in the process of decision making. We also consider classical entropy corresponding to Alice's choices. We introduce a measure of Alice's diffidence as the difference between classical and quantum entropies of Alice's mental state. We see that (at least in our model example) diffidence decreases (approaching zero) in the process of decision making. Finally, we discuss the problem of neuronal realization of quantum-like dynamics in the brain; especially roles played by lateral prefrontal cortex or/and orbitofrontal cortex. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Almost certain escape from black holes in final state projection models.

PubMed

Lloyd, Seth

2006-02-17

Recent models of the black-hole final state suggest that quantum information can escape from a black hole by a process akin to teleportation. These models rely on a controversial process called final-state projection. This Letter discusses the self-consistency of the final-state projection hypothesis and investigates escape from black holes for arbitrary final states and for generic interactions between matter and Hawking radiation. Quantum information escapes with fidelity approximately = (8/3pi)2: only half a bit of quantum information is lost on average, independent of the number of bits that escape from the hole.

Measurement of the equilibrium charge state distributions of Ni, Co, and Cu beams in Mo at 2 MeV/u: Review and evaluation of the relevant semi-empirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastis, P.; Perdikakis, G.; Robertson, D.; Almus, R.; Anderson, T.; Bauder, W.; Collon, P.; Lu, W.; Ostdiek, K.; Skulski, M.

2016-04-01

Equilibrium charge state distributions of stable 60Ni, 59Co, and 63Cu beams passing through a 1 μm thick Mo foil were measured at beam energies of 1.84 MeV/u, 2.09 MeV/u, and 2.11 MeV/u respectively. A 1-D position sensitive Parallel Grid Avalanche Counter detector (PGAC) was used at the exit of a spectrograph magnet, enabling us to measure the intensity of several charge states simultaneously. The number of charge states measured for each beam constituted more than 99% of the total equilibrium charge state distribution for that element. Currently, little experimental data exists for equilibrium charge state distributions for heavy ions with 19 ≲Zp,Zt ≲ 54 (Zp and Zt, are the projectile's and target's atomic numbers respectively). Hence the success of the semi-empirical models in predicting typical characteristics of equilibrium CSDs (mean charge states and distribution widths), has not been thoroughly tested at the energy region of interest. A number of semi-empirical models from the literature were evaluated in this study, regarding their ability to reproduce the characteristics of the measured charge state distributions. The evaluated models were selected from the literature based on whether they are suitable for the given range of atomic numbers and on their frequent use by the nuclear physics community. Finally, an attempt was made to combine model predictions for the mean charge state, the distribution width and the distribution shape, to come up with a more reliable model. We discuss this new ;combinatorial; prescription and compare its results with our experimental data and with calculations using the other semi-empirical models studied in this work.

A state-based probabilistic model for tumor respiratory motion prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalet, Alan; Sandison, George; Wu, Huanmei; Schmitz, Ruth

2010-12-01

This work proposes a new probabilistic mathematical model for predicting tumor motion and position based on a finite state representation using the natural breathing states of exhale, inhale and end of exhale. Tumor motion was broken down into linear breathing states and sequences of states. Breathing state sequences and the observables representing those sequences were analyzed using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to predict the future sequences and new observables. Velocities and other parameters were clustered using a k-means clustering algorithm to associate each state with a set of observables such that a prediction of state also enables a prediction of tumor velocity. A time average model with predictions based on average past state lengths was also computed. State sequences which are known a priori to fit the data were fed into the HMM algorithm to set a theoretical limit of the predictive power of the model. The effectiveness of the presented probabilistic model has been evaluated for gated radiation therapy based on previously tracked tumor motion in four lung cancer patients. Positional prediction accuracy is compared with actual position in terms of the overall RMS errors. Various system delays, ranging from 33 to 1000 ms, were tested. Previous studies have shown duty cycles for latencies of 33 and 200 ms at around 90% and 80%, respectively, for linear, no prediction, Kalman filter and ANN methods as averaged over multiple patients. At 1000 ms, the previously reported duty cycles range from approximately 62% (ANN) down to 34% (no prediction). Average duty cycle for the HMM method was found to be 100% and 91 ± 3% for 33 and 200 ms latency and around 40% for 1000 ms latency in three out of four breathing motion traces. RMS errors were found to be lower than linear and no prediction methods at latencies of 1000 ms. The results show that for system latencies longer than 400 ms, the time average HMM prediction outperforms linear, no prediction, and the more general HMM-type predictive models. RMS errors for the time average model approach the theoretical limit of the HMM, and predicted state sequences are well correlated with sequences known to fit the data.

Weakly coupled map lattice models for multicellular patterning and collective normalization of abnormal single-cell states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Morales, Vladimir; Manzanares, José A.; Mafe, Salvador

2017-04-01

We present a weakly coupled map lattice model for patterning that explores the effects exerted by weakening the local dynamic rules on model biological and artificial networks composed of two-state building blocks (cells). To this end, we use two cellular automata models based on (i) a smooth majority rule (model I) and (ii) a set of rules similar to those of Conway's Game of Life (model II). The normal and abnormal cell states evolve according to local rules that are modulated by a parameter κ . This parameter quantifies the effective weakening of the prescribed rules due to the limited coupling of each cell to its neighborhood and can be experimentally controlled by appropriate external agents. The emergent spatiotemporal maps of single-cell states should be of significance for positional information processes as well as for intercellular communication in tumorigenesis, where the collective normalization of abnormal single-cell states by a predominantly normal neighborhood may be crucial.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blume-Kohout, Robin J; Scholten, Travis L.

Quantum state tomography on a d-dimensional system demands resources that grow rapidly with d. They may be reduced by using model selection to tailor the number of parameters in the model (i.e., the size of the density matrix). Most model selection methods typically rely on a test statistic and a null theory that describes its behavior when two models are equally good. Here, we consider the loglikelihood ratio. Because of the positivity constraint ρ ≥ 0, quantum state space does not generally satisfy local asymptotic normality (LAN), meaning the classical null theory for the loglikelihood ratio (the Wilks theorem) shouldmore » not be used. Thus, understanding and quantifying how positivity affects the null behavior of this test statistic is necessary for its use in model selection for state tomography. We define a new generalization of LAN, metric-projected LAN, show that quantum state space satisfies it, and derive a replacement for the Wilks theorem. In addition to enabling reliable model selection, our results shed more light on the qualitative effects of the positivity constraint on state tomography.« less

Weakly coupled map lattice models for multicellular patterning and collective normalization of abnormal single-cell states.

PubMed

García-Morales, Vladimir; Manzanares, José A; Mafe, Salvador

2017-04-01

We present a weakly coupled map lattice model for patterning that explores the effects exerted by weakening the local dynamic rules on model biological and artificial networks composed of two-state building blocks (cells). To this end, we use two cellular automata models based on (i) a smooth majority rule (model I) and (ii) a set of rules similar to those of Conway's Game of Life (model II). The normal and abnormal cell states evolve according to local rules that are modulated by a parameter κ. This parameter quantifies the effective weakening of the prescribed rules due to the limited coupling of each cell to its neighborhood and can be experimentally controlled by appropriate external agents. The emergent spatiotemporal maps of single-cell states should be of significance for positional information processes as well as for intercellular communication in tumorigenesis, where the collective normalization of abnormal single-cell states by a predominantly normal neighborhood may be crucial.

Descriptive Linear modeling of steady-state visual evoked response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levison, W. H.; Junker, A. M.; Kenner, K.

1986-01-01

A study is being conducted to explore use of the steady state visual-evoke electrocortical response as an indicator of cognitive task loading. Application of linear descriptive modeling to steady state Visual Evoked Response (VER) data is summarized. Two aspects of linear modeling are reviewed: (1) unwrapping the phase-shift portion of the frequency response, and (2) parsimonious characterization of task-loading effects in terms of changes in model parameters. Model-based phase unwrapping appears to be most reliable in applications, such as manual control, where theoretical models are available. Linear descriptive modeling of the VER has not yet been shown to provide consistent and readily interpretable results.

A Study of Experience Credit for Professional Engineering Licensure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, M.A.

2003-08-11

Oak Ridge National Laboratory performed a study of experience credit for professional engineering licensure for the Department of Energy's Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) Program. One of the study's goals was to determine how state licensure boards grant experience credit for engineering licensure, particularly in regards to IAC experience and experience prior to graduation. Another goal involved passing IAC information to state licensure boards to allow the boards to become familiar with the program and determine if they would grant credit to IAC graduates. The National Council of Examiners for Engineers and Surveyors (NCEES) has adopted a document, the ''Model Law''.more » This document empowers states to create state engineering boards and oversee engineering licensure. The board can also interpret and adopt rules and regulations. The Model Law also gives a general ''process'' for engineering licensure, the ''Model Law Engineer''. The Model Law Engineer requires that an applicant for professional licensure, or professional engineering (PE) licensure, obtain a combination of formal education and professional experience and successfully complete the fundamentals of engineering (FE) and PE exams. The Model Law states that a PE applicant must obtain four years of ''acceptable'' engineering experience after graduation to be allowed to sit for the PE exam. Although the Model Law defines ''acceptable experience,'' it is somewhat open to interpretation, and state boards decide whether applicants have accumulated the necessary amount of experience. The Model Law also allows applicants one year of credit for postgraduate degrees as well as experience credit for teaching courses in engineering. The Model Law grants states the power to adopt and amend the bylaws and rules of the Model Law licensure process. It allows state boards the freedom to modify the experience requirements for professional licensure. This power has created variety in experience requirements, and licensure requirements can differ from state to state. Before this study began, six questions were developed to help document how state boards grant experience credit. Many of the questions were formulated to determine how states deal with teaching experience, postgraduate credit, experience prior to graduation, PE and FE waivers, and the licensure process in general. Data were collected from engineering licensure boards for each of the fifty states and the District of Columbia. Telephone interviews were the primary method of data collection, while email correspondence was also used to a lesser degree. Prior to contacting each board, the researchers attempted to review each state's licensure web site. Based on the data collected, several trends and patterns were identified. For example, there is a general trend away from offering credit for experience prior to graduation. The issue becomes a problem when a PE from one state attempts to gain a license in another state by comity or endorsement. Tennessee and Kansas have recently stopped offering this credit and Mississippi cautions applicants that it could be difficult to obtain licensure in other states.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.

Here, as part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak-temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistentmore » implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.« less

What Makes Fusion Cells Effective?

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

83 Figure 18. Breusch - Pagan Test for Overall Model ...........................................................83 Figure 19. Ramsey Test for Overall...Probability Norm for DoD Model IV5 ............................................................89 Figure 31. Breusch - Pagan Test for DoD Model... Breusch - Pagan Test for State and Local Model ..............................................95 Figure 45. Ramsey Test for State and Local Model

Numerical analysis of the chimera states in the multilayered network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goremyko, Mikhail V.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Makarov, Vladimir V.; Ghosh, Dibakar; Bera, Bidesh K.; Dana, Syamal K.; Hramov, Alexander E.

2017-03-01

We numerically study the interaction between the ensembles of the Hindmarsh-Rose (HR) neuron systems, arranged in the multilayer network model. We have shown that the fully identical layers, demonstrated individually different chimera due to the initial mismatch, come to the identical chimera state with the increase of inter-layer coupling. Within the multilayer model we also consider the case, when the one layer demonstrates chimera state, while another layer exhibits coherent or incoherent dynamics. It has been shown that the interactions chimera-coherent state and chimera-incoherent state leads to the both excitation of chimera as from the ensemble of fully coherent or incoherent oscillators, and suppression of initially stable chimera state

The European influence on workers' compensation reform in the United States

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Workers' compensation law in the United States is derived from European models of social insurance introduced in Germany and in England. These two concepts of workers' compensation are found today in the federal and state workers' compensation programs in the United States. All reform proposals in the United States are influenced by the European experience with workers' compensation. In 2006, a reform proposal termed the Public Health Model was made that would abolish the workers' compensation system, and in its place adopt a national disability insurance system for all injuries and illnesses. In the public health model, health and safety professionals would work primarily in public health agencies. The public health model eliminates the physician from any role other than that of privately consulting with the patient and offering advice solely to the patient. The Public Health Model is strongly influenced by the European success with physician consultation with industry and labor. PMID:22151643

Energy economy in the actomyosin interaction: lessons from simple models.

PubMed

Lehman, Steven L

2010-01-01

The energy economy of the actomyosin interaction in skeletal muscle is both scientifically fascinating and practically important. This chapter demonstrates how simple cross-bridge models have guided research regarding the energy economy of skeletal muscle. Parameter variation on a very simple two-state strain-dependent model shows that early events in the actomyosin interaction strongly influence energy efficiency, and late events determine maximum shortening velocity. Addition of a weakly-bound state preceding force production allows weak coupling of cross-bridge mechanics and ATP turnover, so that a simple three-state model can simulate the velocity-dependence of ATP turnover. Consideration of the limitations of this model leads to a review of recent evidence regarding the relationship between ligand binding states, conformational states, and macromolecular structures of myosin cross-bridges. Investigation of the fine structure of the actomyosin interaction during the working stroke continues to inform fundamental research regarding the energy economy of striated muscle.

Representation primitives, process models and patient data in computer-interpretable clinical practice guidelines: a literature review of guideline representation models.

PubMed

Wang, Dongwen; Peleg, Mor; Tu, Samson W; Boxwala, Aziz A; Greenes, Robert A; Patel, Vimla L; Shortliffe, Edward H

2002-12-18

Representation of clinical practice guidelines in a computer-interpretable format is a critical issue for guideline development, implementation, and evaluation. We studied 11 types of guideline representation models that can be used to encode guidelines in computer-interpretable formats. We have consistently found in all reviewed models that primitives for representation of actions and decisions are necessary components of a guideline representation model. Patient states and execution states are important concepts that closely relate to each other. Scheduling constraints on representation primitives can be modeled as sequences, concurrences, alternatives, and loops in a guideline's application process. Nesting of guidelines provides multiple views to a guideline with different granularities. Integration of guidelines with electronic medical records can be facilitated by the introduction of a formal model for patient data. Data collection, decision, patient state, and intervention constitute four basic types of primitives in a guideline's logic flow. Decisions clarify our understanding on a patient's clinical state, while interventions lead to the change from one patient state to another.

Autonomous Control Modes and Optimized Path Guidance for Shipboard Landing in High Sea States

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-12

Performing Organization: The Pennsylvania State University Department of Aerospace Engineering 231C Hammond Building University Park, PA 16802 Attn...Plant Models Used in the Study The H-60 class model was developed and distributed by ART to both NAVAIR and Penn State research teams. The model...To) 07 109 I 201 4 tD 07 I 08 12016 ’t TITLE AND SUBTITLE Autonomous Control Modes and Optimized Path Guidance for Shipboard Landing in High Sea States

Lotka-Volterra competition models for sessile organisms.

PubMed

Spencer, Matthew; Tanner, Jason E

2008-04-01

Markov models are widely used to describe the dynamics of communities of sessile organisms, because they are easily fitted to field data and provide a rich set of analytical tools. In typical ecological applications, at any point in time, each point in space is in one of a finite set of states (e.g., species, empty space). The models aim to describe the probabilities of transitions between states. In most Markov models for communities, these transition probabilities are assumed to be independent of state abundances. This assumption is often suspected to be false and is rarely justified explicitly. Here, we start with simple assumptions about the interactions among sessile organisms and derive a model in which transition probabilities depend on the abundance of destination states. This model is formulated in continuous time and is equivalent to a Lotka-Volterra competition model. We fit this model and a variety of alternatives in which transition probabilities do not depend on state abundances to a long-term coral reef data set. The Lotka-Volterra model describes the data much better than all models we consider other than a saturated model (a model with a separate parameter for each transition at each time interval, which by definition fits the data perfectly). Our approach provides a basis for further development of stochastic models of sessile communities, and many of the methods we use are relevant to other types of community. We discuss possible extensions to spatially explicit models.

An Examination of State Funding Models Regarding Virtual Schools for Public Elementary and Secondary Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stedrak, Luke J.

2012-01-01

This study contains an analysis of virtual schools, public policy, and funding in the United States. The purpose of this study was to determine what public policies and legislation were in place regarding the funding models of virtual education on a state by state basis. Furthermore, this study addressed how allocations were being made by state…

Formal Analysis of Self-Efficacy in Job Interviewee’s Mental State Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajoge, N. S.; Aziz, A. A.; Yusof, S. A. Mohd

2017-08-01

This paper presents a formal analysis approach for self-efficacy model of interviewee’s mental state during a job interview session. Self-efficacy is a construct that has been hypothesised to combine with motivation and interviewee anxiety to define state influence of interviewees. The conceptual model was built based on psychological theories and models related to self-efficacy. A number of well-known relations between events and the course of self-efficacy are summarized from the literature and it is shown that the proposed model exhibits those patterns. In addition, this formal model has been mathematically analysed to find out which stable situations exist. Finally, it is pointed out how this model can be used in a software agent or robot-based platform. Such platform can provide an interview coaching approach where support to the user is provided based on their individual metal state during interview sessions.

Two States Mapping Based Time Series Neural Network Model for Compensation Prediction Residual Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Insung; Koo, Lockjo; Wang, Gi-Nam

2008-11-01

The objective of this paper was to design a model of human bio signal data prediction system for decreasing of prediction error using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, a lot of the industry has been applied neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has got a residual error between real value and prediction result. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We determined that most of the simulation cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model.

Modeling eutrophic lakes: From mass balance laws to ordinary differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marasco, Addolorata; Ferrara, Luciano; Romano, Antonio

Starting from integral balance laws, a model based on nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing the evolution of Phosphorus cycle in a lake is proposed. After showing that the usual homogeneous model is not compatible with the mixture theory, we prove that an ODEs model still holds but for the mean values of the state variables provided that the nonhomogeneous involved fields satisfy suitable conditions. In this model the trophic state of a lake is described by the mean densities of Phosphorus in water and sediments, and phytoplankton biomass. All the quantities appearing in the model can be experimentally evaluated. To propose restoration programs, the evolution of these state variables toward stable steady state conditions is analyzed. Moreover, the local stability analysis is performed with respect to all the model parameters. Some numerical simulations and a real application to lake Varese conclude the paper.

Uncovering state-dependent relationships in shallow lakes using Bayesian latent variable regression.

PubMed

Vitense, Kelsey; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Zimmer, Kyle D; Fieberg, John

2018-03-01

Ecosystems sometimes undergo dramatic shifts between contrasting regimes. Shallow lakes, for instance, can transition between two alternative stable states: a clear state dominated by submerged aquatic vegetation and a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton. Theoretical models suggest that critical nutrient thresholds differentiate three lake types: highly resilient clear lakes, lakes that may switch between clear and turbid states following perturbations, and highly resilient turbid lakes. For effective and efficient management of shallow lakes and other systems, managers need tools to identify critical thresholds and state-dependent relationships between driving variables and key system features. Using shallow lakes as a model system for which alternative stable states have been demonstrated, we developed an integrated framework using Bayesian latent variable regression (BLR) to classify lake states, identify critical total phosphorus (TP) thresholds, and estimate steady state relationships between TP and chlorophyll a (chl a) using cross-sectional data. We evaluated the method using data simulated from a stochastic differential equation model and compared its performance to k-means clustering with regression (KMR). We also applied the framework to data comprising 130 shallow lakes. For simulated data sets, BLR had high state classification rates (median/mean accuracy >97%) and accurately estimated TP thresholds and state-dependent TP-chl a relationships. Classification and estimation improved with increasing sample size and decreasing noise levels. Compared to KMR, BLR had higher classification rates and better approximated the TP-chl a steady state relationships and TP thresholds. We fit the BLR model to three different years of empirical shallow lake data, and managers can use the estimated bifurcation diagrams to prioritize lakes for management according to their proximity to thresholds and chance of successful rehabilitation. Our model improves upon previous methods for shallow lakes because it allows classification and regression to occur simultaneously and inform one another, directly estimates TP thresholds and the uncertainty associated with thresholds and state classifications, and enables meaningful constraints to be built into models. The BLR framework is broadly applicable to other ecosystems known to exhibit alternative stable states in which regression can be used to establish relationships between driving variables and state variables. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Fortin, Marie-Josée

2016-01-01

SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states.We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years.State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of landscape dynamics.

Oscillator-like coherent states for the Jaynes-Cummings Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berubelauziere, Y.; Hussin, V.; Nieto, Michael M.

1995-01-01

A new way of diagonalizing the Jaynes-Cummings Hamiltonian is proposed, which allows the definition of annihilation operators and coherent states for this model. Mean values and dispersions over these states are computed and interpreted.

Model Checking - My 27-Year Quest to Overcome the State Explosion Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, Ed

2009-01-01

Model Checking is an automatic verification technique for state-transition systems that are finite=state or that have finite-state abstractions. In the early 1980 s in a series of joint papers with my graduate students E.A. Emerson and A.P. Sistla, we proposed that Model Checking could be used for verifying concurrent systems and gave algorithms for this purpose. At roughly the same time, Joseph Sifakis and his student J.P. Queille at the University of Grenoble independently developed a similar technique. Model Checking has been used successfully to reason about computer hardware and communication protocols and is beginning to be used for verifying computer software. Specifications are written in temporal logic, which is particularly valuable for expressing concurrency properties. An intelligent, exhaustive search is used to determine if the specification is true or not. If the specification is not true, the Model Checker will produce a counterexample execution trace that shows why the specification does not hold. This feature is extremely useful for finding obscure errors in complex systems. The main disadvantage of Model Checking is the state-explosion problem, which can occur if the system under verification has many processes or complex data structures. Although the state-explosion problem is inevitable in worst case, over the past 27 years considerable progress has been made on the problem for certain classes of state-transition systems that occur often in practice. In this talk, I will describe what Model Checking is, how it works, and the main techniques that have been developed for combating the state explosion problem.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction: A Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yifan; Sun, Yong; Mathew, Joseph; Wolff, Rodney; Ma, Lin

2011-01-01

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

The memory state heuristic: A formal model based on repeated recognition judgments.

PubMed

Castela, Marta; Erdfelder, Edgar

2017-02-01

The recognition heuristic (RH) theory predicts that, in comparative judgment tasks, if one object is recognized and the other is not, the recognized one is chosen. The memory-state heuristic (MSH) extends the RH by assuming that choices are not affected by recognition judgments per se, but by the memory states underlying these judgments (i.e., recognition certainty, uncertainty, or rejection certainty). Specifically, the larger the discrepancy between memory states, the larger the probability of choosing the object in the higher state. The typical RH paradigm does not allow estimation of the underlying memory states because it is unknown whether the objects were previously experienced or not. Therefore, we extended the paradigm by repeating the recognition task twice. In line with high threshold models of recognition, we assumed that inconsistent recognition judgments result from uncertainty whereas consistent judgments most likely result from memory certainty. In Experiment 1, we fitted 2 nested multinomial models to the data: an MSH model that formalizes the relation between memory states and binary choices explicitly and an approximate model that ignores the (unlikely) possibility of consistent guesses. Both models provided converging results. As predicted, reliance on recognition increased with the discrepancy in the underlying memory states. In Experiment 2, we replicated these results and found support for choice consistency predictions of the MSH. Additionally, recognition and choice latencies were in agreement with the MSH in both experiments. Finally, we validated critical parameters of our MSH model through a cross-validation method and a third experiment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Oscillations in Spurious States of the Associative Memory Model with Synaptic Depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murata, Shin; Otsubo, Yosuke; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato

2014-12-01

The associative memory model is a typical neural network model that can store discretely distributed fixed-point attractors as memory patterns. When the network stores the memory patterns extensively, however, the model has other attractors besides the memory patterns. These attractors are called spurious memories. Both spurious states and memory states are in equilibrium, so there is little difference between their dynamics. Recent physiological experiments have shown that the short-term dynamic synapse called synaptic depression decreases its efficacy of transmission to postsynaptic neurons according to the activities of presynaptic neurons. Previous studies revealed that synaptic depression destabilizes the memory states when the number of memory patterns is finite. However, it is very difficult to study the dynamical properties of the spurious states if the number of memory patterns is proportional to the number of neurons. We investigate the effect of synaptic depression on spurious states by Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that synaptic depression does not affect the memory states but mainly destabilizes the spurious states and induces periodic oscillations.

Universal scheme for finite-probability perfect transfer of arbitrary multispin states through spin chains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Man, Zhong-Xiao, E-mail: zxman@mail.qfnu.edu.cn; An, Nguyen Ba, E-mail: nban@iop.vast.ac.vn; Xia, Yun-Jie, E-mail: yjxia@mail.qfnu.edu.cn

In combination with the theories of open system and quantum recovering measurement, we propose a quantum state transfer scheme using spin chains by performing two sequential operations: a projective measurement on the spins of ‘environment’ followed by suitably designed quantum recovering measurements on the spins of interest. The scheme allows perfect transfer of arbitrary multispin states through multiple parallel spin chains with finite probability. Our scheme is universal in the sense that it is state-independent and applicable to any model possessing spin–spin interactions. We also present possible methods to implement the required measurements taking into account the current experimental technologies.more » As applications, we consider two typical models for which the probabilities of perfect state transfer are found to be reasonably high at optimally chosen moments during the time evolution. - Highlights: • Scheme that can achieve perfect quantum state transfer is devised. • The scheme is state-independent and applicable to any spin-interaction models. • The scheme allows perfect transfer of arbitrary multispin states. • Applications to two typical models are considered in detail.« less

Intellectual technologies in the problems of thermal power engineering control: formalization of fuzzy information processing results using the artificial intelligence methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krokhin, G.; Pestunov, A.

2017-11-01

Exploitation conditions of power stations in variable modes and related changes of their technical state actualized problems of creating models for decision-making and state recognition basing on diagnostics using the fuzzy logic for identification their state and managing recovering processes. There is no unified methodological approach for obtaining the relevant information is a case of fuzziness and inhomogeneity of the raw information about the equipment state. The existing methods for extracting knowledge are usually unable to provide the correspondence between of the aggregates model parameters and the actual object state. The switchover of the power engineering from the preventive repair to the one, which is implemented according to the actual technical state, increased the responsibility of those who estimate the volume and the duration of the work. It may lead to inadequacy of the diagnostics and the decision-making models if corresponding methodological preparations do not take fuzziness into account, because the nature of the state information is of this kind. In this paper, we introduce a new model which formalizes the equipment state using not only exact information, but fuzzy as well. This model is more adequate to the actual state, than traditional analogs, and may be used in order to increase the efficiency and the service period of the power installations.

Bistability and State Transition of a Delay Differential Equation Model of Neutrophil Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Suqi; Zhu, Kaiyi; Lei, Jinzhi

This paper studies the existence of bistable states and control strategies to induce state transitions of a delay differential equation model of neutrophil dynamics. We seek the conditions that a stable steady state and an oscillatory state coexist in the neutrophil dynamical system. Physiologically, stable steady state represents the healthy state, while oscillatory state is usually associated with diseases such as cyclical neutropenia. We study the control strategies to induce the transitions from the disease state to the healthy state by introducing temporal perturbations to system parameters. This study is valuable in designing clinical protocols for the treatment of cyclical neutropenia.

Alternative method of quantum state tomography toward a typical target via a weak-value measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Dai, Hong-Yi; Yang, Le; Zhang, Ming

2018-03-01

There is usually a limitation of weak interaction on the application of weak-value measurement. This limitation dominates the performance of the quantum state tomography toward a typical target in the finite and high-dimensional complex-valued superposition of its basis states, especially when the compressive sensing technique is also employed. Here we propose an alternative method of quantum state tomography, presented as a general model, toward such typical target via weak-value measurement to overcome such limitation. In this model the pointer for the weak-value measurement is a qubit, and the target-pointer coupling interaction is no longer needed within the weak interaction limitation, meanwhile this interaction under the compressive sensing can be described with the Taylor series of the unitary evolution operator. The postselection state at the target is the equal superposition of all basis states, and the pointer readouts are gathered under multiple Pauli operator measurements. The reconstructed quantum state is generated from an optimization algorithm of total variation augmented Lagrangian alternating direction algorithm. Furthermore, we demonstrate an example of this general model for the quantum state tomography toward the planar laser-energy distribution and discuss the relations among some parameters at both our general model and the original first-order approximate model for this tomography.

Transitions in State Public Health Law: Comparative Analysis of State Public Health Law Reform Following the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act

PubMed Central

Meier, Benjamin Mason; Gebbie, Kristine M.

2009-01-01

Given the public health importance of law modernization, we undertook a comparative analysis of policy efforts in 4 states (Alaska, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) that have considered public health law reform based on the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act. Through national legislative tracking and state case studies, we investigated how the Turning Point Act's model legal language has been considered for incorporation into state law and analyzed key facilitating and inhibiting factors for public health law reform. Our findings provide the practice community with a research base to facilitate further law reform and inform future scholarship on the role of law as a determinant of the public's health. PMID:19150900

A comparative computational study of coarse-grained and all-atom water models in shock Hugoniot states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Sa Hoon; Berkowitz, Max L.

2018-04-01

We performed molecular dynamics simulations to study how well some of the water models used in simulations describe shocked states. Water in our simulations was described using three different models. One was an often-used all-atom TIP4P/2005 model, while the other two were coarse-grained models used with the MARTINI force field: non-polarizable and polarizable MARTINI water. The all-atom model provided results in good agreement with Hugoniot curves (for data on pressure versus specific volume or, equivalently, on shock wave velocity versus "piston" velocity) describing shocked states in the whole range of pressures (up to 11 GPa) under study. If simulations of shocked states of water using coarse-grained models were performed for short time periods, we observed that data obtained for shocked states at low pressure were fairly accurate compared to experimental Hugoniot curves. Polarizable MARTINI water still provided a good description of Hugoniot curves for pressures up to 11 GPa, while the results for the non-polarizable MARTINI water substantially deviated from the Hugoniot curves. We also calculated the temperature of the Hugoniot states and observed that for TIP4P/2005 water, they were consistent with those from theoretical calculations, while both coarse-grained models predicted much higher temperatures. These high temperatures for MARTINI water can be explained by the loss of degrees of freedom due to coarse-graining procedure.

Construction of ground-state preserving sparse lattice models for predictive materials simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wenxuan; Urban, Alexander; Rong, Ziqin; Ding, Zhiwei; Luo, Chuan; Ceder, Gerbrand

2017-08-01

First-principles based cluster expansion models are the dominant approach in ab initio thermodynamics of crystalline mixtures enabling the prediction of phase diagrams and novel ground states. However, despite recent advances, the construction of accurate models still requires a careful and time-consuming manual parameter tuning process for ground-state preservation, since this property is not guaranteed by default. In this paper, we present a systematic and mathematically sound method to obtain cluster expansion models that are guaranteed to preserve the ground states of their reference data. The method builds on the recently introduced compressive sensing paradigm for cluster expansion and employs quadratic programming to impose constraints on the model parameters. The robustness of our methodology is illustrated for two lithium transition metal oxides with relevance for Li-ion battery cathodes, i.e., Li2xFe2(1-x)O2 and Li2xTi2(1-x)O2, for which the construction of cluster expansion models with compressive sensing alone has proven to be challenging. We demonstrate that our method not only guarantees ground-state preservation on the set of reference structures used for the model construction, but also show that out-of-sample ground-state preservation up to relatively large supercell size is achievable through a rapidly converging iterative refinement. This method provides a general tool for building robust, compressed and constrained physical models with predictive power.

Vive la Difference: What It Means for State Boards to Embrace Two Models for Public Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smarick, Andy

2017-01-01

The charter school model differs fundamentally from the district-based model of public education delivery that is still dominant in every state. Instead of creating government bodies that directly operate all of an area's public schools, the state approves entities that authorize and oversee schools run by nonprofit organizations. In this article,…

Measuring up to the Model: A Ranking of State Public Charter School Laws. Ninth Annual Edition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziebarth, Todd; Palmer, Louann Bierlein

2018-01-01

This ninth edition of "Measuring up to the Model: A Ranking of State Charter School Laws" presents the latest activity in charter public school legislation across the country. For the second year in a row, the 2018 rankings measure each state's charter school law against the National Alliance's updated model charter school law, "New…

Intertime jump statistics of state-dependent Poisson processes.

PubMed

Daly, Edoardo; Porporato, Amilcare

2007-01-01

A method to obtain the probability distribution of the interarrival times of jump occurrences in systems driven by state-dependent Poisson noise is proposed. Such a method uses the survivor function obtained by a modified version of the master equation associated to the stochastic process under analysis. A model for the timing of human activities shows the capability of state-dependent Poisson noise to generate power-law distributions. The application of the method to a model for neuron dynamics and to a hydrological model accounting for land-atmosphere interaction elucidates the origin of characteristic recurrence intervals and possible persistence in state-dependent Poisson models.

Ordered states in the Kitaev-Heisenberg model: From 1D chains to 2D honeycomb.

PubMed

Agrapidis, Cliò Efthimia; van den Brink, Jeroen; Nishimoto, Satoshi

2018-01-29

We study the ground state of the 1D Kitaev-Heisenberg (KH) model using the density-matrix renormalization group and Lanczos exact diagonalization methods. We obtain a rich ground-state phase diagram as a function of the ratio between Heisenberg (J = cosϕ) and Kitaev (K = sinϕ) interactions. Depending on the ratio, the system exhibits four long-range ordered states: ferromagnetic-z, ferromagnetic-xy, staggered-xy, Néel-z, and two liquid states: Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid and spiral-xy. The two Kitaev points [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are singular. The ϕ-dependent phase diagram is similar to that for the 2D honeycomb-lattice KH model. Remarkably, all the ordered states of the honeycomb-lattice KH model can be interpreted in terms of the coupled KH chains. We also discuss the magnetic structure of the K-intercalated RuCl 3 , a potential Kitaev material, in the framework of the 1D KH model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the low-lying excitations of the 1D KH Hamiltonian can be explained within the combination of the known six-vertex model and spin-wave theory.

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

Strategy for the management of substance use disorders in the State of Punjab: Developing a structural model of state-level de-addiction services in the health sector (the “Punjab model”)

PubMed Central

Basu, Debasish; Avasthi, Ajit

2015-01-01

Background: Substance use disorders are believed to have become rampant in the State of Punjab, causing substantive loss to the person, the family, the society, and the state. The situation is likely to worsen further if a structured, government-level, state-wide de-addiction service is not put into place. Aims: The aim was to describe a comprehensive structural model of de-addiction service in the State of Punjab (the “Pyramid model” or “Punjab model”), which is primarily concerned with demand reduction, particularly that part which is concerned with identification, treatment, and aftercare of substance users. Materials and Methods: At the behest of the Punjab Government, this model was developed by the authors after a detailed study of the current scenario, critical and exhaustive look at the existing guidelines, policies, books, web resources, government documents, and the like in this area, a check of the ground reality in terms of existing infrastructural and manpower resources, and keeping pragmatism and practicability in mind. Several rounds of meetings with the government officials and other important stakeholders helped to refine the model further. Results: Our model envisages structural innovation and renovations within the existing state healthcare infrastructure. We formulated a “Pyramid model,” later renamed as “Punjab model,” where there is a broad community base for early identification and outpatient level treatment at the primary care level, both outpatient and inpatient care at the secondary care level, and comprehensive management for more difficult cases at the tertiary care level. A separate de-addiction system for the prisons was also developed. Each of these structural elements was described and refined in details, with the aim of uniform, standardized, and easily accessible care across the state. Conclusions: If the “Punjab model” succeeds, it can provide useful models for other states or even at the national level. PMID:25657452

Crowd macro state detection using entropy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ying; Yuan, Mengqi; Su, Guofeng; Chen, Tao

2015-08-01

In the crowd security research area a primary concern is to identify the macro state of crowd behaviors to prevent disasters and to supervise the crowd behaviors. The entropy is used to describe the macro state of a self-organization system in physics. The entropy change indicates the system macro state change. This paper provides a method to construct crowd behavior microstates and the corresponded probability distribution using the individuals' velocity information (magnitude and direction). Then an entropy model was built up to describe the crowd behavior macro state. Simulation experiments and video detection experiments were conducted. It was verified that in the disordered state, the crowd behavior entropy is close to the theoretical maximum entropy; while in ordered state, the entropy is much lower than half of the theoretical maximum entropy. The crowd behavior macro state sudden change leads to the entropy change. The proposed entropy model is more applicable than the order parameter model in crowd behavior detection. By recognizing the entropy mutation, it is possible to detect the crowd behavior macro state automatically by utilizing cameras. Results will provide data support on crowd emergency prevention and on emergency manual intervention.

Enhancing the economic value and consumer preferences of commercial mondol stingray (Himantura gerardi) leather creative products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahubawa, L.; Pertiwiningrum, A.; Rahmadian, Y.

2018-03-01

The research objectives were to design, assess the economic value and consumer preference level of stingray leather products. The research method included a product design, analysis of economic value and consumer preferences. Mondol stingray (Himantura gerardi) leather, with a length of 50 cm and width of 30 cm, were processed into ID card wallet, man and women’s wallet and key holder. The number of respondents involved to analyze the preference level is 75 respondents (students, lecturers and employees of Universitas Gadjah Mada). Indicators of consumer preferences were model, color, price and purchasing power. The price of ID card wallet is Rp. 450,000; women wallet is Rp. 650,000 and a key holder is Rp. 300,000. Consumer preferences on ID card wallet were as follow: 84 % stated very interesting model; 83 % stated very interesting color; 61 % stated cheap and 53 % had enough. Consumer preferences of women’s wallet were as follow: 81 % stated very interesting model; 84 % stated very interesting color; 56 % stated cheap and 57 % had enough. Consumer preferences on key holder were as follow: 49 % stated interesting model; 72 % stated very interesting color; 61 % stated cheap and 57 % had enough.

Using a Network Model to Assess Risk of Forest Pest Spread via Recreational Travel

PubMed Central

Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Haack, Robert A.; Magarey, Roger D.

2014-01-01

Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary. PMID:25007186

Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel.

PubMed

Koch, Frank H; Yemshanov, Denys; Haack, Robert A; Magarey, Roger D

2014-01-01

Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary.

Keyring models: An approach to steerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Carl A.; Colbeck, Roger; Shi, Yaoyun

2018-02-01

If a measurement is made on one half of a bipartite system, then, conditioned on the outcome, the other half has a new reduced state. If these reduced states defy classical explanation—that is, if shared randomness cannot produce these reduced states for all possible measurements—the bipartite state is said to be steerable. Determining which states are steerable is a challenging problem even for low dimensions. In the case of two-qubit systems, a criterion is known for T-states (that is, those with maximally mixed marginals) under projective measurements. In the current work, we introduce the concept of keyring models—a special class of local hidden state models. When the measurements made correspond to real projectors, these allow us to study steerability beyond T-states. Using keyring models, we completely solve the steering problem for real projective measurements when the state arises from mixing a pure two-qubit state with uniform noise. We also give a partial solution in the case when the uniform noise is replaced by independent depolarizing channels.

A social preference valuations set for EQ-5D health states in Flanders, Belgium.

PubMed

Cleemput, Irina

2010-04-01

This study aimed at deriving a preference valuation set for EQ-5D health states from the general Flemish public in Belgium. A EuroQol valuation instrument with 16 health states to be valued on a visual analogue scale was sent to a random sample of 2,754 adults. The initial response rate was 35%. Eventually, 548 (20%) respondents provided useable valuations for modeling. Valuations for 245 health states were modeled using a random effects model. The selection of the model was based on two criteria: health state valuations must be consistent, and the difference with the directly observed valuations must be small. A model including a value decrement if any health dimension of the EQ-5D is on the worst level was selected to construct the social health state valuation set. A comparison with health state valuations from other countries showed similarities, especially with those from New Zealand. The use of a single preference valuation set across different health economic evaluations within a country is highly preferable to increase their usability for policy makers. This study contributes to the standardization of outcome measurement in economic evaluations in Belgium.

Implementation of Kalman filter algorithm on models reduced using singular pertubation approximation method and its application to measurement of water level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachmawati, Vimala; Khusnul Arif, Didik; Adzkiya, Dieky

2018-03-01

The systems contained in the universe often have a large order. Thus, the mathematical model has many state variables that affect the computation time. In addition, generally not all variables are known, so estimations are needed to measure the magnitude of the system that cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we discuss the model reduction and estimation of state variables in the river system to measure the water level. The model reduction of a system is an approximation method of a system with a lower order without significant errors but has a dynamic behaviour that is similar to the original system. The Singular Perturbation Approximation method is one of the model reduction methods where all state variables of the equilibrium system are partitioned into fast and slow modes. Then, The Kalman filter algorithm is used to estimate state variables of stochastic dynamic systems where estimations are computed by predicting state variables based on system dynamics and measurement data. Kalman filters are used to estimate state variables in the original system and reduced system. Then, we compare the estimation results of the state and computational time between the original and reduced system.

Customized Steady-State Constraints for Parameter Estimation in Non-Linear Ordinary Differential Equation Models

PubMed Central

Rosenblatt, Marcus; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

2016-01-01

Ordinary differential equation models have become a wide-spread approach to analyze dynamical systems and understand underlying mechanisms. Model parameters are often unknown and have to be estimated from experimental data, e.g., by maximum-likelihood estimation. In particular, models of biological systems contain a large number of parameters. To reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space, steady-state information is incorporated in the parameter estimation process. For non-linear models, analytical steady-state calculation typically leads to higher-order polynomial equations for which no closed-form solutions can be obtained. This can be circumvented by solving the steady-state equations for kinetic parameters, which results in a linear equation system with comparatively simple solutions. At the same time multiplicity of steady-state solutions is avoided, which otherwise is problematic for optimization. When solved for kinetic parameters, however, steady-state constraints tend to become negative for particular model specifications, thus, generating new types of optimization problems. Here, we present an algorithm based on graph theory that derives non-negative, analytical steady-state expressions by stepwise removal of cyclic dependencies between dynamical variables. The algorithm avoids multiple steady-state solutions by construction. We show that our method is applicable to most common classes of biochemical reaction networks containing inhibition terms, mass-action and Hill-type kinetic equations. Comparing the performance of parameter estimation for different analytical and numerical methods of incorporating steady-state information, we show that our approach is especially well-tailored to guarantee a high success rate of optimization. PMID:27243005

Customized Steady-State Constraints for Parameter Estimation in Non-Linear Ordinary Differential Equation Models.

PubMed

Rosenblatt, Marcus; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

2016-01-01

Ordinary differential equation models have become a wide-spread approach to analyze dynamical systems and understand underlying mechanisms. Model parameters are often unknown and have to be estimated from experimental data, e.g., by maximum-likelihood estimation. In particular, models of biological systems contain a large number of parameters. To reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space, steady-state information is incorporated in the parameter estimation process. For non-linear models, analytical steady-state calculation typically leads to higher-order polynomial equations for which no closed-form solutions can be obtained. This can be circumvented by solving the steady-state equations for kinetic parameters, which results in a linear equation system with comparatively simple solutions. At the same time multiplicity of steady-state solutions is avoided, which otherwise is problematic for optimization. When solved for kinetic parameters, however, steady-state constraints tend to become negative for particular model specifications, thus, generating new types of optimization problems. Here, we present an algorithm based on graph theory that derives non-negative, analytical steady-state expressions by stepwise removal of cyclic dependencies between dynamical variables. The algorithm avoids multiple steady-state solutions by construction. We show that our method is applicable to most common classes of biochemical reaction networks containing inhibition terms, mass-action and Hill-type kinetic equations. Comparing the performance of parameter estimation for different analytical and numerical methods of incorporating steady-state information, we show that our approach is especially well-tailored to guarantee a high success rate of optimization.

Steady-state kinetic modeling constrains cellular resting states and dynamic behavior.

PubMed

Purvis, Jeremy E; Radhakrishnan, Ravi; Diamond, Scott L

2009-03-01

A defining characteristic of living cells is the ability to respond dynamically to external stimuli while maintaining homeostasis under resting conditions. Capturing both of these features in a single kinetic model is difficult because the model must be able to reproduce both behaviors using the same set of molecular components. Here, we show how combining small, well-defined steady-state networks provides an efficient means of constructing large-scale kinetic models that exhibit realistic resting and dynamic behaviors. By requiring each kinetic module to be homeostatic (at steady state under resting conditions), the method proceeds by (i) computing steady-state solutions to a system of ordinary differential equations for each module, (ii) applying principal component analysis to each set of solutions to capture the steady-state solution space of each module network, and (iii) combining optimal search directions from all modules to form a global steady-state space that is searched for accurate simulation of the time-dependent behavior of the whole system upon perturbation. Importantly, this stepwise approach retains the nonlinear rate expressions that govern each reaction in the system and enforces constraints on the range of allowable concentration states for the full-scale model. These constraints not only reduce the computational cost of fitting experimental time-series data but can also provide insight into limitations on system concentrations and architecture. To demonstrate application of the method, we show how small kinetic perturbations in a modular model of platelet P2Y(1) signaling can cause widespread compensatory effects on cellular resting states.

Ab initio-informed maximum entropy modeling of rovibrational relaxation and state-specific dissociation with application to the O2 + O system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulakhmetov, Marat; Gallis, Michael; Alexeenko, Alina

2016-05-01

Quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations are used to study state-specific ro-vibrational energy exchange and dissociation in the O2 + O system. Atom-diatom collisions with energy between 0.1 and 20 eV are calculated with a double many body expansion potential energy surface by Varandas and Pais [Mol. Phys. 65, 843 (1988)]. Inelastic collisions favor mono-quantum vibrational transitions at translational energies above 1.3 eV although multi-quantum transitions are also important. Post-collision vibrational favoring decreases first exponentially and then linearly as Δv increases. Vibrationally elastic collisions (Δv = 0) favor small ΔJ transitions while vibrationally inelastic collisions have equilibrium post-collision rotational distributions. Dissociation exhibits both vibrational and rotational favoring. New vibrational-translational (VT), vibrational-rotational-translational (VRT) energy exchange, and dissociation models are developed based on QCT observations and maximum entropy considerations. Full set of parameters for state-to-state modeling of oxygen is presented. The VT energy exchange model describes 22 000 state-to-state vibrational cross sections using 11 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 30% in the 2500-20 000 K temperature range. The VRT model captures 80 × 106 state-to-state ro-vibrational cross sections using 19 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 60% in the 5000-15 000 K temperature range. The developed dissociation model reproduces state-specific and equilibrium dissociation rates within 25% using just 48 parameters. The maximum entropy framework makes it feasible to upscale ab initio simulation to full nonequilibrium flow calculations.

Assessing performance of Bayesian state-space models fit to Argos satellite telemetry locations processed with Kalman filtering.

PubMed

Silva, Mónica A; Jonsen, Ian; Russell, Deborah J F; Prieto, Rui; Thompson, Dave; Baumgartner, Mark F

2014-01-01

Argos recently implemented a new algorithm to calculate locations of satellite-tracked animals that uses a Kalman filter (KF). The KF algorithm is reported to increase the number and accuracy of estimated positions over the traditional Least Squares (LS) algorithm, with potential advantages to the application of state-space methods to model animal movement data. We tested the performance of two Bayesian state-space models (SSMs) fitted to satellite tracking data processed with KF algorithm. Tracks from 7 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) tagged with ARGOS satellite transmitters equipped with Fastloc GPS loggers were used to calculate the error of locations estimated from SSMs fitted to KF and LS data, by comparing those to "true" GPS locations. Data on 6 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) were used to investigate consistency in movement parameters, location and behavioural states estimated by switching state-space models (SSSM) fitted to data derived from KF and LS methods. The model fit to KF locations improved the accuracy of seal trips by 27% over the LS model. 82% of locations predicted from the KF model and 73% of locations from the LS model were <5 km from the corresponding interpolated GPS position. Uncertainty in KF model estimates (5.6 ± 5.6 km) was nearly half that of LS estimates (11.6 ± 8.4 km). Accuracy of KF and LS modelled locations was sensitive to precision but not to observation frequency or temporal resolution of raw Argos data. On average, 88% of whale locations estimated by KF models fell within the 95% probability ellipse of paired locations from LS models. Precision of KF locations for whales was generally higher. Whales' behavioural mode inferred by KF models matched the classification from LS models in 94% of the cases. State-space models fit to KF data can improve spatial accuracy of location estimates over LS models and produce equally reliable behavioural estimates.

Assessing Performance of Bayesian State-Space Models Fit to Argos Satellite Telemetry Locations Processed with Kalman Filtering

PubMed Central

Silva, Mónica A.; Jonsen, Ian; Russell, Deborah J. F.; Prieto, Rui; Thompson, Dave; Baumgartner, Mark F.

2014-01-01

Argos recently implemented a new algorithm to calculate locations of satellite-tracked animals that uses a Kalman filter (KF). The KF algorithm is reported to increase the number and accuracy of estimated positions over the traditional Least Squares (LS) algorithm, with potential advantages to the application of state-space methods to model animal movement data. We tested the performance of two Bayesian state-space models (SSMs) fitted to satellite tracking data processed with KF algorithm. Tracks from 7 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) tagged with ARGOS satellite transmitters equipped with Fastloc GPS loggers were used to calculate the error of locations estimated from SSMs fitted to KF and LS data, by comparing those to “true” GPS locations. Data on 6 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) were used to investigate consistency in movement parameters, location and behavioural states estimated by switching state-space models (SSSM) fitted to data derived from KF and LS methods. The model fit to KF locations improved the accuracy of seal trips by 27% over the LS model. 82% of locations predicted from the KF model and 73% of locations from the LS model were <5 km from the corresponding interpolated GPS position. Uncertainty in KF model estimates (5.6±5.6 km) was nearly half that of LS estimates (11.6±8.4 km). Accuracy of KF and LS modelled locations was sensitive to precision but not to observation frequency or temporal resolution of raw Argos data. On average, 88% of whale locations estimated by KF models fell within the 95% probability ellipse of paired locations from LS models. Precision of KF locations for whales was generally higher. Whales’ behavioural mode inferred by KF models matched the classification from LS models in 94% of the cases. State-space models fit to KF data can improve spatial accuracy of location estimates over LS models and produce equally reliable behavioural estimates. PMID:24651252

State-space prediction model for chaotic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alparslan, A. K.; Sayar, M.; Atilgan, A. R.

1998-08-01

A simple method for predicting the continuation of scalar chaotic time series ahead in time is proposed. The false nearest neighbors technique in connection with the time-delayed embedding is employed so as to reconstruct the state space. A local forecasting model based upon the time evolution of the topological neighboring in the reconstructed phase space is suggested. A moving root-mean-square error is utilized in order to monitor the error along the prediction horizon. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of the Lorenz model. The results indicate that for approximately 100 cycles of the training data, the prediction follows the actual continuation very closely about six cycles. The proposed model, like other state-space forecasting models, captures the long-term behavior of the system due to the use of spatial neighbors in the state space.

Computational Approaches to Predict Indices of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As nutrient inputs increase, productivity increases and lakes transition from low trophic state (e.g., oligotrophic) to higher trophic states (e.g., eutrophic). These broad trophic state classifications are good predictors of ecosystem health and the potential for ecosystem services (e.g., recreation, aesthetics, and fisheries). Additionally, some ecosystem disservices, such as cyanobacteria blooms, are also associated with increased nutrient inputs. Thus, trophic state can be used as a proxy for cyanobacteria bloom risk. To explore this idea, we construct two random forest models of trophic state (as determined by chlorophyll a concentration). First we define an “All Variable” model that estimates trophic state with both in situ and universally available data, and then we reduce this to a “GIS Only” model that uses only the universally available data. The “All Variables” model had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.09 and R2 of 0.8; whereas, the “GIS Only” model was 0.22 and 0.48 for RMSE and R2, respectively. Examining the “GIS Only” model (i.e., the model that has broadest applicability) we see that in spite of lower overall accuracy, it still has better than even odds (i.e., prediction probability is > 50%) of being correct in more than 1091 of the 1138 lakes included in this model. The “GIS Only” model has tremendous potential for exploring spatial trends at the national level since the datasets required to parameterize the

State-and-transition prototype model of riparian vegetation downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ralston, Barbara E.; Starfield, Anthony M.; Black, Ronald S.; Van Lonkhuyzen, Robert A.

2014-01-01

Facing an altered riparian plant community dominated by nonnative species, resource managers are increasingly interested in understanding how to manage and promote healthy riparian habitats in which native species dominate. For regulated rivers, managing flows is one tool resource managers consider to achieve these goals. Among many factors that can influence riparian community composition, hydrology is a primary forcing variable. Frame-based models, used successfully in grassland systems, provide an opportunity for stakeholders concerned with riparian systems to evaluate potential riparian vegetation responses to alternative flows. Frame-based, state-and-transition models of riparian vegetation for reattachment bars, separation bars, and the channel margin found on the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam were constructed using information from the literature. Frame-based models can be simple spreadsheet models (created in Microsoft® Excel) or developed further with programming languages (for example, C-sharp). The models described here include seven community states and five dam operations that cause transitions between states. Each model divides operations into growing (April–September) and non-growing seasons (October–March) and incorporates upper and lower bar models, using stage elevation as a division. The inputs (operations) can be used by stakeholders to evaluate flows that may promote dynamic riparian vegetation states, or identify those flow options that may promote less desirable states (for example, Tamarisk [Tamarix sp.] temporarily flooded shrubland). This prototype model, although simple, can still elicit discussion about operational options and vegetation response.

Markov reward processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, R. M.

1991-01-01

Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the behavior of the system with a continuous-time Markov chain, where a reward rate is associated with each state. In a reliability/availability model, upstates may have reward rate 1 and down states may have reward rate zero associated with them. In a queueing model, the number of jobs of certain type in a given state may be the reward rate attached to that state. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Expected steady-state reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures of the Markov reward model. More generally, the distribution of accumulated reward or time-averaged reward over a finite time interval may be determined from the solution of the Markov reward model. This information is of great practical significance in situations where the workload can be well characterized (deterministically, or by continuous functions e.g., distributions). The design process in the development of a computer system is an expensive and long term endeavor. For aerospace applications the reliability of the computer system is essential, as is the ability to complete critical workloads in a well defined real time interval. Consequently, effective modeling of such systems must take into account both performance and reliability. This fact motivates our use of Markov reward models to aid in the development and evaluation of fault tolerant computer systems.

Ontology and modeling patterns for state-based behavior representation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castet, Jean-Francois; Rozek, Matthew L.; Ingham, Michel D.; Rouquette, Nicolas F.; Chung, Seung H.; Kerzhner, Aleksandr A.; Donahue, Kenneth M.; Jenkins, J. Steven; Wagner, David A.; Dvorak, Daniel L.;

Real-Time State Estimation and Long-Term Model Adaptation: A Two-Sided Approach toward Personalized Diagnosis of Glucose and Insulin Levels

PubMed Central

Eberle, Claudia; Ament, Christoph

2012-01-01

Background With continuous glucose sensors (CGSs), it is possible to obtain a dynamical signal of the patient’s subcutaneous glucose concentration in real time. How could that information be exploited? We suggest a model-based diagnosis system with a twofold objective: real-time state estimation and long-term model parameter identification. Methods To obtain a dynamical model, Bergman’s nonlinear minimal model (considering plasma glucose G, insulin I, and interstitial insulin X) is extended by two states describing first and second insulin response. Furthermore, compartments for oral glucose and subcutaneous insulin inputs as well as for subcutaneous glucose measurement are added. The observability of states and external inputs as well as the identifiability of model parameters are assessed using the empirical observability Gramian. Signals are estimated for different nondiabetic and diabetic scenarios by unscented Kalman filter. Results (1) Observability of different state subsets is evaluated, e.g., from CGSs, {G, I} or {G, X} can be observed and the set {G, I, X} cannot. (2) Model parameters are included, e.g., it is possible to estimate the second-phase insulin response gain kG2 additionally. This can be used for model adaptation and as a diagnostic parameter that is almost zero for diabetes patients. (3) External inputs are considered, e.g., oral glucose is theoretically observable for nondiabetic patients, but estimation scenarios show that the time delay of 1 h limits application. Conclusions A real-time estimation of states (such as plasma insulin I) and parameters (such as kG2) is possible, which allows an improved real-time state prediction and a personalized model. PMID:23063042

Subregional Nowcasts of Seasonal Influenza Using Search Trends.

PubMed

Kandula, Sasikiran; Hsu, Daniel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-11-06

Limiting the adverse effects of seasonal influenza outbreaks at state or city level requires close monitoring of localized outbreaks and reliable forecasts of their progression. Whereas forecasting models for influenza or influenza-like illness (ILI) are becoming increasingly available, their applicability to localized outbreaks is limited by the nonavailability of real-time observations of the current outbreak state at local scales. Surveillance data collected by various health departments are widely accepted as the reference standard for estimating the state of outbreaks, and in the absence of surveillance data, nowcast proxies built using Web-based activities such as search engine queries, tweets, and access of health-related webpages can be useful. Nowcast estimates of state and municipal ILI were previously published by Google Flu Trends (GFT); however, validations of these estimates were seldom reported. The aim of this study was to develop and validate models to nowcast ILI at subregional geographic scales. We built nowcast models based on autoregressive (autoregressive integrated moving average; ARIMA) and supervised regression methods (Random forests) at the US state level using regional weighted ILI and Web-based search activity derived from Google's Extended Trends application programming interface. We validated the performance of these methods using actual surveillance data for the 50 states across six seasons. We also built state-level nowcast models using state-level estimates of ILI and compared the accuracy of these estimates with the estimates of the regional models extrapolated to the state level and with the nowcast estimates published by GFT. Models built using regional ILI extrapolated to state level had a median correlation of 0.84 (interquartile range: 0.74-0.91) and a median root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.01 (IQR: 0.74-1.50), with noticeable variability across seasons and by state population size. Model forms that hypothesize the availability of timely state-level surveillance data show significantly lower errors of 0.83 (0.55-0.23). Compared with GFT, the latter model forms have lower errors but also lower correlation. These results suggest that the proposed methods may be an alternative to the discontinued GFT and that further improvements in the quality of subregional nowcasts may require increased access to more finely resolved surveillance data. ©Sasikiran Kandula, Daniel Hsu, Jeffrey Shaman. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 06.11.2017.

A model of metastable dynamics during ongoing and evoked cortical activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Camera, Giancarlo

The dynamics of simultaneously recorded spike trains in alert animals often evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for the genesis of such sequences, or their potential role in neural coding. In the gustatory cortex of alert rates, state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation, and thus form the basis of the so-called `ongoing activity'. This activity is characterized by a partial degree of coordination among neurons, sharp transitions among states, and multi-stability of single neurons' firing rates. A recurrent spiking network model with clustered topology can account for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the (network-generated) multi-stability. In the model, each network state results from the activation of specific neural clusters with potentiated intra-cluster connections. A mean field solution of the model shows a large number of stable states, each characterized by a subset of simultaneously active clusters. The firing rate in each cluster during ongoing activity depends on the number of active clusters, so that the same neuron can have different firing rates depending on the state of the network. Because of dense intra-cluster connectivity and recurrent inhibition, in finite networks the stable states lose stability due to finite size effects. Simulations of the dynamics show that the model ensemble activity continuously hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. Moreover, when probed with external stimuli, the model correctly predicts the quenching of single neuron multi-stability into bi-stability, the reduction of dimensionality of the population activity, the reduction of trial-to-trial variability, and a potential role for metastable states in the anticipation of expected events. Altogether, these results provide a unified mechanistic model of ongoing and evoked cortical dynamics. NSF IIS-1161852, NIDCD K25-DC013557, NIDCD R01-DC010389.

Elementary Teacher Training Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blewett, Evelyn J., Ed.

This collection of articles contains descriptions of nine elementary teacher training program models conducted at universities throughout the United States. The articles include the following: (a) "The University of Toledo Model Program," by George E. Dickson; (b) "The Florida State University Model Program," by G. Wesley Sowards; (c) "The…

Grey-Markov prediction model based on background value optimization and central-point triangular whitenization weight function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Jing; Dang, Yaoguo; Li, Bingjun

2018-01-01

Grey-Markov forecasting model is a combination of grey prediction model and Markov chain which show obvious optimization effects for data sequences with characteristics of non-stationary and volatility. However, the state division process in traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model is mostly based on subjective real numbers that immediately affects the accuracy of forecasting values. To seek the solution, this paper introduces the central-point triangular whitenization weight function in state division to calculate possibilities of research values in each state which reflect preference degrees in different states in an objective way. On the other hand, background value optimization is applied in the traditional grey model to generate better fitting data. By this means, the improved Grey-Markov forecasting model is built. Finally, taking the grain production in Henan Province as an example, it verifies this model's validity by comparing with GM(1,1) based on background value optimization and the traditional Grey-Markov forecasting model.

Diversity of chimera-like patterns from a model of 2D arrays of neurons with nonlocal coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Chang-Hai; Zhang, Xi-Yun; Wang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Zong-Hua

2017-06-01

Chimera states have been studied in 1D arrays, and a variety of different chimera states have been found using different models. Research has recently been extended to 2D arrays but only to phase models of them. Here, we extend it to a nonphase model of 2D arrays of neurons and focus on the influence of nonlocal coupling. Using extensive numerical simulations, we find, surprisingly, that this system can show most types of previously observed chimera states, in contrast to previous models, where only one or a few types of chimera states can be observed in each model. We also find that this model can show some special chimera-like patterns such as gridding and multicolumn patterns, which were previously observed only in phase models. Further, we present an effective approach, i.e., removing some of the coupling links, to generate heterogeneous coupling, which results in diverse chimera-like patterns and even induces transformations from one chimera-like pattern to another.

Friction of hard surfaces and its application in earthquakes and rock slope stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Nitish; Singh, Arun K.; Singh, Trilok N.

2018-05-01

In this article, we discuss the friction models for hard surfaces and their applications in earth sciences. The rate and state friction (RSF) model, which is basically modified form of the classical Amontons-Coulomb friction laws, is widely used for explaining the crustal earthquakes and the rock slope failures. Yet the RSF model has further been modified by considering the role of temperature at the sliding interface known as the rate, state and temperature friction (RSTF) model. Further, if the pore pressure is also taken into account then it is stated as the rate, state, temperature and pore pressure friction (RSTPF) model. All the RSF models predict a critical stiffness as well as a critical velocity at which sliding behavior becomes stable/unstable. The friction models are also used for predicting time of failure of the rock mass on an inclined plane. Finally, the limitation and possibilities of the proposed friction models are also highlighted.

A new class of enhanced kinetic sampling methods for building Markov state models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhoutekar, Arti; Ghosh, Susmita; Bhattacharya, Swati; Chatterjee, Abhijit

2017-10-01

Markov state models (MSMs) and other related kinetic network models are frequently used to study the long-timescale dynamical behavior of biomolecular and materials systems. MSMs are often constructed bottom-up using brute-force molecular dynamics (MD) simulations when the model contains a large number of states and kinetic pathways that are not known a priori. However, the resulting network generally encompasses only parts of the configurational space, and regardless of any additional MD performed, several states and pathways will still remain missing. This implies that the duration for which the MSM can faithfully capture the true dynamics, which we term as the validity time for the MSM, is always finite and unfortunately much shorter than the MD time invested to construct the model. A general framework that relates the kinetic uncertainty in the model to the validity time, missing states and pathways, network topology, and statistical sampling is presented. Performing additional calculations for frequently-sampled states/pathways may not alter the MSM validity time. A new class of enhanced kinetic sampling techniques is introduced that aims at targeting rare states/pathways that contribute most to the uncertainty so that the validity time is boosted in an effective manner. Examples including straightforward 1D energy landscapes, lattice models, and biomolecular systems are provided to illustrate the application of the method. Developments presented here will be of interest to the kinetic Monte Carlo community as well.

Estimation of sojourn time in chronic disease screening without data on interval cases.

PubMed

Chen, T H; Kuo, H S; Yen, M F; Lai, M S; Tabar, L; Duffy, S W

2000-03-01

Estimation of the sojourn time on the preclinical detectable period in disease screening or transition rates for the natural history of chronic disease usually rely on interval cases (diagnosed between screens). However, to ascertain such cases might be difficult in developing countries due to incomplete registration systems and difficulties in follow-up. To overcome this problem, we propose three Markov models to estimate parameters without using interval cases. A three-state Markov model, a five-state Markov model related to regional lymph node spread, and a five-state Markov model pertaining to tumor size are applied to data on breast cancer screening in female relatives of breast cancer cases in Taiwan. Results based on a three-state Markov model give mean sojourn time (MST) 1.90 (95% CI: 1.18-4.86) years for this high-risk group. Validation of these models on the basis of data on breast cancer screening in the age groups 50-59 and 60-69 years from the Swedish Two-County Trial shows the estimates from a three-state Markov model that does not use interval cases are very close to those from previous Markov models taking interval cancers into account. For the five-state Markov model, a reparameterized procedure using auxiliary information on clinically detected cancers is performed to estimate relevant parameters. A good fit of internal and external validation demonstrates the feasibility of using these models to estimate parameters that have previously required interval cancers. This method can be applied to other screening data in which there are no data on interval cases.

Personalized State-space Modeling of Glucose Dynamics for Type 1 Diabetes Using Continuously Monitored Glucose, Insulin Dose, and Meal Intake: An Extended Kalman Filter Approach.

PubMed

Wang, Qian; Molenaar, Peter; Harsh, Saurabh; Freeman, Kenneth; Xie, Jinyu; Gold, Carol; Rovine, Mike; Ulbrecht, Jan

2014-03-01

An essential component of any artificial pancreas is on the prediction of blood glucose levels as a function of exogenous and endogenous perturbations such as insulin dose, meal intake, and physical activity and emotional tone under natural living conditions. In this article, we present a new data-driven state-space dynamic model with time-varying coefficients that are used to explicitly quantify the time-varying patient-specific effects of insulin dose and meal intake on blood glucose fluctuations. Using the 3-variate time series of glucose level, insulin dose, and meal intake of an individual type 1 diabetic subject, we apply an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate time-varying coefficients of the patient-specific state-space model. We evaluate our empirical modeling using (1) the FDA-approved UVa/Padova simulator with 30 virtual patients and (2) clinical data of 5 type 1 diabetic patients under natural living conditions. Compared to a forgetting-factor-based recursive ARX model of the same order, the EKF model predictions have higher fit, and significantly better temporal gain and J index and thus are superior in early detection of upward and downward trends in glucose. The EKF based state-space model developed in this article is particularly suitable for model-based state-feedback control designs since the Kalman filter estimates the state variable of the glucose dynamics based on the measured glucose time series. In addition, since the model parameters are estimated in real time, this model is also suitable for adaptive control. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

Simple Deterministically Constructed Recurrent Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodan, Ali; Tiňo, Peter

A large number of models for time series processing, forecasting or modeling follows a state-space formulation. Models in the specific class of state-space approaches, referred to as Reservoir Computing, fix their state-transition function. The state space with the associated state transition structure forms a reservoir, which is supposed to be sufficiently complex so as to capture a large number of features of the input stream that can be potentially exploited by the reservoir-to-output readout mapping. The largely "black box" character of reservoirs prevents us from performing a deeper theoretical investigation of the dynamical properties of successful reservoirs. Reservoir construction is largely driven by a series of (more-or-less) ad-hoc randomized model building stages, with both the researchers and practitioners having to rely on a series of trials and errors. We show that a very simple deterministically constructed reservoir with simple cycle topology gives performances comparable to those of the Echo State Network (ESN) on a number of time series benchmarks. Moreover, we argue that the memory capacity of such a model can be made arbitrarily close to the proved theoretical limit.

Structure of the low-lying positive parity states in the proton-neutron symplectic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganev, H. G.

2018-05-01

The proton-neutron symplectic model with Sp(12, R) dynamical symmetry is applied for the simultaneous description of the microscopic structure of the low-lying states of the ground state, γ and β bands in 166 Er. For this purpose, the model Hamiltonian is diagonalized in the space of stretched states by exploiting the SUp (3) ⊗ SUn (3) symmetry-adapted basis. The theoretical predictions are compared with experiment and some other microscopic collective models, like the one-component Sp(6, R) symplectic and pseudo-SU(3) models. A good description of the energy levels of the three bands under consideration, as well as the enhanced intraband B(E2) transition strengths between the states of the ground and γ bands is obtained without the use of effective charges. The results show the presence of a good SU(3) dynamical symmetry. It is also shown that, in contrast to the Sp(6, R) case, the lowest excited bands, e.g., the β and γ bands, naturally appear together with the ground state band within a single Sp(12, R) irreducible representation.

Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moll, Andreas; Stegert, Christoph

2007-01-01

This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem-zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.

Data and methodological problems in establishing state gasoline-conservation targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greene, D.L.; Walton, G.H.

The Emergency Energy Conservation Act of 1979 gives the President the authority to set gasoline-conservation targets for states in the event of a supply shortage. This paper examines data and methodological problems associated with setting state gasoline-conservation targets. The target-setting method currently used is examined and found to have some flaws. Ways of correcting these deficiencies through the use of Box-Jenkins time-series analysis are investigated. A successful estimation of Box-Jenkins models for all states included the estimation of the magnitude of the supply shortages of 1979 in each state and a preliminary estimation of state short-run price elasticities, which weremore » found to vary about a median value of -0.16. The time-series models identified were very simple in structure and lent support to the simple consumption growth model assumed by the current target method. The authors conclude that the flaws in the current method can be remedied either by replacing the current procedures with time-series models or by using the models in conjunction with minor modifications of the current method.« less

Stability of micro-Cassie states on rough substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Zhenjiang; Liu, Yawei; Lohse, Detlef; Zhang, Xuehua; Zhang, Xianren

2015-06-01

We numerically study different forms of nanoscale gaseous domains on a model for rough surfaces. Our calculations based on the constrained lattice density functional theory show that the inter-connectivity of pores surrounded by neighboring nanoposts, which model the surface roughness, leads to the formation of stable microscopic Cassie states. We investigate the dependence of the stability of the micro-Cassie states on substrate roughness, fluid-solid interaction, and chemical potential and then address the differences between the origin of the micro-Cassie states and that of surface nanobubbles within similar models. Finally, we show that the micro-Cassie states share some features with experimentally observed micropancakes at solid-water interfaces.

Hydrogen density of states and defects densities in a-Si:H

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deane, S.C.; Powell, M.J.; Robertson, J.

1996-12-31

The properties of hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) and its devices depend fundamentally on the density of states (DOS) in the gap due to dangling bonds. It is generally believed that the density of dangling bonds is controlled by a chemical equilibrium with the weak Si-Si bonds which form the localized valence band tail states. Further details are given of a unified model of the hydrogen density of states and defect pool of a-Si:H. The model is compared to other defect models and extended to describe a-Si alloys and the creation of valence band tail states during growth.

Models for Selecting Chief State School Officers. Policy Memo Series, No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanchez, Karen L. Van Til; Hall, Gayle C.

The process of selecting a chief state school officer (CSSO) can be a significant means of allocating policymaking power in state educational governance. This paper examines the role of the chief state school officer and explains how that role is influenced by the selection process. Four selection models are described, along with the advantages…

Ground-state energies of the nonlinear sigma model and the Heisenberg spin chains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Shoucheng; Schulz, H. J.; Ziman, Timothy

1989-01-01

A theorem on the O(3) nonlinear sigma model with the topological theta term is proved, which states that the ground-state energy at theta = pi is always higher than the ground-state energy at theta = 0, for the same value of the coupling constant g. Provided that the nonlinear sigma model gives the correct description for the Heisenberg spin chains in the large-s limit, this theorem makes a definite prediction relating the ground-state energies of the half-integer and the integer spin chains. The ground-state energies obtained from the exact Bethe ansatz solution for the spin-1/2 chain and the numerical diagonalization on the spin-1, spin-3/2, and spin-2 chains support this prediction.

A new state space model for the NASA/JPL 70-meter antenna servo controls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, R. E.

1987-01-01

A control axis referenced model of the NASA/JPL 70-m antenna structure is combined with the dynamic equations of servo components to produce a comprehansive state variable (matrix) model of the coupled system. An interactive Fortran program for generating the linear system model and computing its salient parameters is described. Results are produced in a state variable, block diagram, and in factored transfer function forms to facilitate design and analysis by classical as well as modern control methods.

Supercomputer modelling of an electronic structure for KCl nanocrystal with edge dislocation with the use of semiempirical and nonempirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timoshenko, Yu K.; Shunina, V. A.; Shashkin, A. I.

2018-03-01

In the present work we used semiempirical and non-empirical models for electronic states of KCl nanocrystal containing edge dislocation for comparison of the obtained results. Electronic levels and local densities of states were calculated. As a result we found a reasonable qualitative correlation of semiempirical and non-empirical results. Using the results of computer modelling we discuss the problem of localization of electronic states near the line of edge dislocation.

Modular design attitude control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chichester, F. D.

1984-01-01

A sequence of single axismodels and a series of reduced state linear observers of minimum order are used to reconstruct inaccessible variables pertaining to the modular attitude control of a rigid body flexible suspension model of a flexible spacecraft. The single axis models consist of two, three, four, and five rigid bodies, each interconnected by a flexible shaft passing through the mass centers of the bodies. Modal damping is added to each model. Reduced state linear observers are developed for synthesizing the inaccessible modal state variables for each modal model.

A general consumer-resource population model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

2015-01-01

Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

Aperiodic dynamics in a deterministic adaptive network model of attitude formation in social groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Jonathan A.; Grindrod, Peter

2014-07-01

Adaptive network models, in which node states and network topology coevolve, arise naturally in models of social dynamics that incorporate homophily and social influence. Homophily relates the similarity between pairs of nodes' states to their network coupling strength, whilst social influence causes coupled nodes' states to convergence. In this paper we propose a deterministic adaptive network model of attitude formation in social groups that includes these effects, and in which the attitudinal dynamics are represented by an activato-inhibitor process. We illustrate that consensus, corresponding to all nodes adopting the same attitudinal state and being fully connected, may destabilise via Turing instability, giving rise to aperiodic dynamics with sensitive dependence on initial conditions. These aperiodic dynamics correspond to the formation and dissolution of sub-groups that adopt contrasting attitudes. We discuss our findings in the context of cultural polarisation phenomena. Social influence. This reflects the fact that people tend to modify their behaviour and attitudes in response to the opinions of others [22-26]. We model social influence via diffusion: agents adjust their state according to a weighted sum (dictated by the evolving network) of the differences between their state and the states of their neighbours. Homophily. This relates the similarity of individuals' states to their frequency and strength of interaction [27]. Thus in our model, homophily drives the evolution of the weighted ‘social' network. A precise formulation of our model is given in Section 2. Social influence and homophily underpin models of social dynamics [21], which cover a wide range of sociological phenomena, including the diffusion of innovations [28-32], complex contagions [33-36], collective action [37-39], opinion dynamics [19,20,40,10,11,13,15,41,16], the emergence of social norms [42-44], group stability [45], social differentiation [46] and, of particular relevance here, cultural dissemination [47,12,48].Combining the effects of social influence and homophily naturally gives rise to an adaptive network, since social influence causes the states of agents that are strongly connected to become more similar, while homophily strengthens connections between agents whose states are already similar.1

Entanglement entropy from tensor network states for stabilizer codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Huan; Zheng, Yunqin; Bernevig, B. Andrei; Regnault, Nicolas

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present the construction of tensor network states (TNS) for some of the degenerate ground states of three-dimensional (3D) stabilizer codes. We then use the TNS formalism to obtain the entanglement spectrum and entropy of these ground states for some special cuts. In particular, we work out examples of the 3D toric code, the X-cube model, and the Haah code. The latter two models belong to the category of "fracton" models proposed recently, while the first one belongs to the conventional topological phases. We mention the cases for which the entanglement entropy and spectrum can be calculated exactly: For these, the constructed TNS is a singular value decomposition (SVD) of the ground states with respect to particular entanglement cuts. Apart from the area law, the entanglement entropies also have constant and linear corrections for the fracton models, while the entanglement entropies for the toric code models only have constant corrections. For the cuts we consider, the entanglement spectra of these three models are completely flat. We also conjecture that the negative linear correction to the area law is a signature of extensive ground-state degeneracy. Moreover, the transfer matrices of these TNSs can be constructed. We show that the transfer matrices are projectors whose eigenvalues are either 1 or 0. The number of nonzero eigenvalues is tightly related to the ground-state degeneracy.

Advocating for School Psychologists in Response to the APA's Proposed "Model Act for State Licensure of Psychologists"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skalski, Anastasia Kalamaros

2009-01-01

On March 6, 2009, the APA Model Licensure Act Task Force released its second draft of the policy document known as the proposed "Model Act for State Licensure of Psychologists". This policy document serves as guidance to state legislatures for how they should set up their psychology licensing laws. The general expectations promoted in the model…

Modeling natural regeneration establishment in the northern Rocky Mountains of the U.S.A

Treesearch

D. E. Ferguson

1996-01-01

Retrospective examination of cutover forests enables the development of models that predict regeneration success as a function of plot conditions and time since disturbance. The modeling process uses a two-state system. In the first state, all plots are analyzed to predict the probability of stocking (at least one established seedling on the plot). In the second state...

Efficient Ensemble State-Parameters Estimation Techniques in Ocean Ecosystem Models: Application to the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Gharamti, M.; Bethke, I.; Tjiputra, J.; Bertino, L.

2016-02-01

Given the recent strong international focus on developing new data assimilation systems for biological models, we present in this comparative study the application of newly developed state-parameters estimation tools to an ocean ecosystem model. It is quite known that the available physical models are still too simple compared to the complexity of the ocean biology. Furthermore, various biological parameters remain poorly unknown and hence wrong specifications of such parameters can lead to large model errors. Standard joint state-parameters augmentation technique using the ensemble Kalman filter (Stochastic EnKF) has been extensively tested in many geophysical applications. Some of these assimilation studies reported that jointly updating the state and the parameters might introduce significant inconsistency especially for strongly nonlinear models. This is usually the case for ecosystem models particularly during the period of the spring bloom. A better handling of the estimation problem is often carried out by separating the update of the state and the parameters using the so-called Dual EnKF. The dual filter is computationally more expensive than the Joint EnKF but is expected to perform more accurately. Using a similar separation strategy, we propose a new EnKF estimation algorithm in which we apply a one-step-ahead smoothing to the state. The new state-parameters estimation scheme is derived in a consistent Bayesian filtering framework and results in separate update steps for the state and the parameters. Unlike the classical filtering path, the new scheme starts with an update step and later a model propagation step is performed. We test the performance of the new smoothing-based schemes against the standard EnKF in a one-dimensional configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) in the North Atlantic. We use nutrients profile (up to 2000 m deep) data and surface partial CO2 measurements from Mike weather station (66o N, 2o E) to estimate different biological parameters of phytoplanktons and zooplanktons. We analyze the performance of the filters in terms of complexity and accuracy of the state and parameters estimates.

Microscopic Simulation and Macroscopic Modeling for Thermal and Chemical Non-Equilibrium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Yen; Panesi, Marco; Vinokur, Marcel; Clarke, Peter

2013-01-01

This paper deals with the accurate microscopic simulation and macroscopic modeling of extreme non-equilibrium phenomena, such as encountered during hypersonic entry into a planetary atmosphere. The state-to-state microscopic equations involving internal excitation, de-excitation, dissociation, and recombination of nitrogen molecules due to collisions with nitrogen atoms are solved time-accurately. Strategies to increase the numerical efficiency are discussed. The problem is then modeled using a few macroscopic variables. The model is based on reconstructions of the state distribution function using the maximum entropy principle. The internal energy space is subdivided into multiple groups in order to better describe the non-equilibrium gases. The method of weighted residuals is applied to the microscopic equations to obtain macroscopic moment equations and rate coefficients. The modeling is completely physics-based, and its accuracy depends only on the assumed expression of the state distribution function and the number of groups used. The model makes no assumption at the microscopic level, and all possible collisional and radiative processes are allowed. The model is applicable to both atoms and molecules and their ions. Several limiting cases are presented to show that the model recovers the classical twotemperature models if all states are in one group and the model reduces to the microscopic equations if each group contains only one state. Numerical examples and model validations are carried out for both the uniform and linear distributions. Results show that the original over nine thousand microscopic equations can be reduced to 2 macroscopic equations using 1 to 5 groups with excellent agreement. The computer time is decreased from 18 hours to less than 1 second.

A Novel Approach to Implement Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Models.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Wen; Tao, Chin-Wang

2017-09-01

This paper proposes new algorithms based on the fuzzy c-regressing model algorithm for Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy modeling of the complex nonlinear systems. A fuzzy c-regression state model (FCRSM) algorithm is a T-S fuzzy model in which the functional antecedent and the state-space-model-type consequent are considered with the available input-output data. The antecedent and consequent forms of the proposed FCRSM consists mainly of two advantages: one is that the FCRSM has low computation load due to only one input variable is considered in the antecedent part; another is that the unknown system can be modeled to not only the polynomial form but also the state-space form. Moreover, the FCRSM can be extended to FCRSM-ND and FCRSM-Free algorithms. An algorithm FCRSM-ND is presented to find the T-S fuzzy state-space model of the nonlinear system when the input-output data cannot be precollected and an assumed effective controller is available. In the practical applications, the mathematical model of controller may be hard to be obtained. In this case, an online tuning algorithm, FCRSM-FREE, is designed such that the parameters of a T-S fuzzy controller and the T-S fuzzy state model of an unknown system can be online tuned simultaneously. Four numerical simulations are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Excitonic Order and Superconductivity in the Two-Orbital Hubbard Model: Variational Cluster Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiuchi, Ryo; Sugimoto, Koudai; Ohta, Yukinori

2018-06-01

Using the variational cluster approach based on the self-energy functional theory, we study the possible occurrence of excitonic order and superconductivity in the two-orbital Hubbard model with intra- and inter-orbital Coulomb interactions. It is known that an antiferromagnetic Mott insulator state appears in the regime of strong intra-orbital interaction, a band insulator state appears in the regime of strong inter-orbital interaction, and an excitonic insulator state appears between them. In addition to these states, we find that the s±-wave superconducting state appears in the small-correlation regime, and the dx2 - y2-wave superconducting state appears on the boundary of the antiferromagnetic Mott insulator state. We calculate the single-particle spectral function of the model and compare the band gap formation due to the superconducting and excitonic orders.

A brief review on key technologies in the battery management system of electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kailong; Li, Kang; Peng, Qiao; Zhang, Cheng

2018-04-01

Batteries have been widely applied in many high-power applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles, where a suitable battery management system (BMS) is vital in ensuring safe and reliable operation of batteries. This paper aims to give a brief review on several key technologies of BMS, including battery modelling, state estimation and battery charging. First, popular battery types used in EVs are surveyed, followed by the introduction of key technologies used in BMS. Various battery models, including the electric model, thermal model and coupled electro-thermal model are reviewed. Then, battery state estimations for the state of charge, state of health and internal temperature are comprehensively surveyed. Finally, several key and traditional battery charging approaches with associated optimization methods are discussed.

Self-sustained asynchronous irregular states and Up-Down states in thalamic, cortical and thalamocortical networks of nonlinear integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Destexhe, Alain

2009-12-01

Randomly-connected networks of integrate-and-fire (IF) neurons are known to display asynchronous irregular (AI) activity states, which resemble the discharge activity recorded in the cerebral cortex of awake animals. However, it is not clear whether such activity states are specific to simple IF models, or if they also exist in networks where neurons are endowed with complex intrinsic properties similar to electrophysiological measurements. Here, we investigate the occurrence of AI states in networks of nonlinear IF neurons, such as the adaptive exponential IF (Brette-Gerstner-Izhikevich) model. This model can display intrinsic properties such as low-threshold spike (LTS), regular spiking (RS) or fast-spiking (FS). We successively investigate the oscillatory and AI dynamics of thalamic, cortical and thalamocortical networks using such models. AI states can be found in each case, sometimes with surprisingly small network size of the order of a few tens of neurons. We show that the presence of LTS neurons in cortex or in thalamus, explains the robust emergence of AI states for relatively small network sizes. Finally, we investigate the role of spike-frequency adaptation (SFA). In cortical networks with strong SFA in RS cells, the AI state is transient, but when SFA is reduced, AI states can be self-sustained for long times. In thalamocortical networks, AI states are found when the cortex is itself in an AI state, but with strong SFA, the thalamocortical network displays Up and Down state transitions, similar to intracellular recordings during slow-wave sleep or anesthesia. Self-sustained Up and Down states could also be generated by two-layer cortical networks with LTS cells. These models suggest that intrinsic properties such as adaptation and low-threshold bursting activity are crucial for the genesis and control of AI states in thalamocortical networks.

An approach to solving large reliability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Mark A.; Veeraraghavan, Malathi; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.

1988-01-01

This paper describes a unified approach to the problem of solving large realistic reliability models. The methodology integrates behavioral decomposition, state trunction, and efficient sparse matrix-based numerical methods. The use of fault trees, together with ancillary information regarding dependencies to automatically generate the underlying Markov model state space is proposed. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by modeling a state-of-the-art flight control system and a multiprocessor system. Nonexponential distributions for times to failure of components are assumed in the latter example. The modeling tool used for most of this analysis is HARP (the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor).

Mesoscale research activities with the LAMPS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.

1985-01-01

Researchers achieved full implementation of the LAMPS mesoscale model on the Atmospheric Sciences Division computer and derived balanced and real wind initial states for three case studies: March 6, April 24, April 26, 1982. Numerical simulations were performed for three separate studies: (1) a satellite moisture data impact study using Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) precipitable water as a constraint on model initial state moisture analyses; (2) an evaluation of mesoscale model precipitation simulation accuracy with and without convective parameterization; and (3) the sensitivity of model precipitation to mesoscale detail of moisture and vertical motion in an initial state.

Integrated driver modelling considering state transition feature for individual adaptation of driver assistance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raksincharoensak, Pongsathorn; Khaisongkram, Wathanyoo; Nagai, Masao; Shimosaka, Masamichi; Mori, Taketoshi; Sato, Tomomasa

2010-12-01

This paper describes the modelling of naturalistic driving behaviour in real-world traffic scenarios, based on driving data collected via an experimental automobile equipped with a continuous sensing drive recorder. This paper focuses on the longitudinal driving situations which are classified into five categories - car following, braking, free following, decelerating and stopping - and are referred to as driving states. Here, the model is assumed to be represented by a state flow diagram. Statistical machine learning of driver-vehicle-environment system model based on driving database is conducted by a discriminative modelling approach called boosting sequential labelling method.

Territorial expansion and primary state formation

PubMed Central

Spencer, Charles S.

2010-01-01

A major research problem in anthropology is the origin of the state and its bureaucratic form of governance. Of particular importance for evaluating theories of state origins are cases of primary state formation, whereby a first-generation state evolves without contact with any preexisting states. A general model of this process, the territorial-expansion model, is presented and assessed with archaeological data from six areas where primary states emerged in antiquity: Mesoamerica, Peru, Egypt, Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley, and China. In each case, the evidence shows a close correspondence in time between the first appearance of state institutions and the earliest expansion of the state's political-economic control to regions lying more than a day's round-trip from the capital. Although additional research will add detail and clarity to the empirical record, the results to date are consistent with the territorial-expansion model, which argues that the success of such long-distance expansion not only demanded the bureaucratization of central authority but also helped provide the resources necessary to underwrite this administrative transformation. PMID:20385804

Territorial expansion and primary state formation.

PubMed

Spencer, Charles S

2010-04-20

A major research problem in anthropology is the origin of the state and its bureaucratic form of governance. Of particular importance for evaluating theories of state origins are cases of primary state formation, whereby a first-generation state evolves without contact with any preexisting states. A general model of this process, the territorial-expansion model, is presented and assessed with archaeological data from six areas where primary states emerged in antiquity: Mesoamerica, Peru, Egypt, Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley, and China. In each case, the evidence shows a close correspondence in time between the first appearance of state institutions and the earliest expansion of the state's political-economic control to regions lying more than a day's round-trip from the capital. Although additional research will add detail and clarity to the empirical record, the results to date are consistent with the territorial-expansion model, which argues that the success of such long-distance expansion not only demanded the bureaucratization of central authority but also helped provide the resources necessary to underwrite this administrative transformation.

Parallel Representation of Value-Based and Finite State-Based Strategies in the Ventral and Dorsal Striatum

PubMed Central

Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

2015-01-01

Previous theoretical studies of animal and human behavioral learning have focused on the dichotomy of the value-based strategy using action value functions to predict rewards and the model-based strategy using internal models to predict environmental states. However, animals and humans often take simple procedural behaviors, such as the “win-stay, lose-switch” strategy without explicit prediction of rewards or states. Here we consider another strategy, the finite state-based strategy, in which a subject selects an action depending on its discrete internal state and updates the state depending on the action chosen and the reward outcome. By analyzing choice behavior of rats in a free-choice task, we found that the finite state-based strategy fitted their behavioral choices more accurately than value-based and model-based strategies did. When fitted models were run autonomously with the same task, only the finite state-based strategy could reproduce the key feature of choice sequences. Analyses of neural activity recorded from the dorsolateral striatum (DLS), the dorsomedial striatum (DMS), and the ventral striatum (VS) identified significant fractions of neurons in all three subareas for which activities were correlated with individual states of the finite state-based strategy. The signal of internal states at the time of choice was found in DMS, and for clusters of states was found in VS. In addition, action values and state values of the value-based strategy were encoded in DMS and VS, respectively. These results suggest that both the value-based strategy and the finite state-based strategy are implemented in the striatum. PMID:26529522

Steady-state solutions of a diffusive energy-balance climate model and their stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.

1975-01-01

A diffusive energy-balance climate model, governed by a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation, was studied. Three positive steady-state solutions of this equation are found; they correspond to three possible climates of our planet: an interglacial (nearly identical to the present climate), a glacial, and a completely ice-covered earth. Models similar to the main one are considered, and the number of their steady states was determined. All the models have albedo continuously varying with latitude and temperature, and entirely diffusive horizontal heat transfer. The stability under small perturbations of the main model's climates was investigated. A stability criterion is derived, and its application shows that the present climate and the deep freeze are stable, whereas the model's glacial is unstable. The dependence was examined of the number of steady states and of their stability on the average solar radiation.

VAMPnets for deep learning of molecular kinetics.

PubMed

Mardt, Andreas; Pasquali, Luca; Wu, Hao; Noé, Frank

2018-01-02

There is an increasing demand for computing the relevant structures, equilibria, and long-timescale kinetics of biomolecular processes, such as protein-drug binding, from high-throughput molecular dynamics simulations. Current methods employ transformation of simulated coordinates into structural features, dimension reduction, clustering the dimension-reduced data, and estimation of a Markov state model or related model of the interconversion rates between molecular structures. This handcrafted approach demands a substantial amount of modeling expertise, as poor decisions at any step will lead to large modeling errors. Here we employ the variational approach for Markov processes (VAMP) to develop a deep learning framework for molecular kinetics using neural networks, dubbed VAMPnets. A VAMPnet encodes the entire mapping from molecular coordinates to Markov states, thus combining the whole data processing pipeline in a single end-to-end framework. Our method performs equally or better than state-of-the-art Markov modeling methods and provides easily interpretable few-state kinetic models.

State variable modeling of the integrated engine and aircraft dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotaru, Constantin; Sprinţu, Iuliana

2014-12-01

This study explores the dynamic characteristics of the combined aircraft-engine system, based on the general theory of the state variables for linear and nonlinear systems, with details leading first to the separate formulation of the longitudinal and the lateral directional state variable models, followed by the merging of the aircraft and engine models into a single state variable model. The linearized equations were expressed in a matrix form and the engine dynamics was included in terms of variation of thrust following a deflection of the throttle. The linear model of the shaft dynamics for a two-spool jet engine was derived by extending the one-spool model. The results include the discussion of the thrust effect upon the aircraft response when the thrust force associated with the engine has a sizable moment arm with respect to the aircraft center of gravity for creating a compensating moment.

Flatness-based control and Kalman filtering for a continuous-time macroeconomic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Busawon, K.; Binns, R.

2017-11-01

The article proposes flatness-based control for a nonlinear macro-economic model of the UK economy. The differential flatness properties of the model are proven. This enables to introduce a transformation (diffeomorphism) of the system's state variables and to express the state-space description of the model in the linear canonical (Brunowsky) form in which both the feedback control and the state estimation problem can be solved. For the linearized equivalent model of the macroeconomic system, stabilizing feedback control can be achieved using pole placement methods. Moreover, to implement stabilizing feedback control of the system by measuring only a subset of its state vector elements the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used. This consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized equivalent model of the financial system and of an inverse transformation that is based again on differential flatness theory. The asymptotic stability properties of the control scheme are confirmed.

Ground-state phase diagram in the Kugel-Khomskii model with finite spin-orbit interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga, Akihisa; Nakauchi, Shiryu; Nasu, Joji

2018-05-01

We study ground-state properties in the Kugel-Khomskii model on the two-dimensional honeycomb lattice. Using the cluster mean-field approximations, we deal with the exchange and spin-orbit couplings on an equal footing. We then discuss the stability of the ferromagnetically ordered states against the nonmagnetic state, which is adiabatically connected to the quantum spin liquid state realized in a strong spin-orbit coupling limit.

Modeling Bivariate Longitudinal Hormone Profiles by Hierarchical State Space Models

PubMed Central

Liu, Ziyue; Cappola, Anne R.; Crofford, Leslie J.; Guo, Wensheng

2013-01-01

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is crucial in coping with stress and maintaining homeostasis. Hormones produced by the HPA axis exhibit both complex univariate longitudinal profiles and complex relationships among different hormones. Consequently, modeling these multivariate longitudinal hormone profiles is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a bivariate hierarchical state space model, in which each hormone profile is modeled by a hierarchical state space model, with both population-average and subject-specific components. The bivariate model is constructed by concatenating the univariate models based on the hypothesized relationship. Because of the flexible framework of state space form, the resultant models not only can handle complex individual profiles, but also can incorporate complex relationships between two hormones, including both concurrent and feedback relationship. Estimation and inference are based on marginal likelihood and posterior means and variances. Computationally efficient Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used for implementation. Application of the proposed method to a study of chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia reveals that the relationships between adrenocorticotropic hormone and cortisol in the patient group are weaker than in healthy controls. PMID:24729646

Modeling Bivariate Longitudinal Hormone Profiles by Hierarchical State Space Models.

PubMed

Liu, Ziyue; Cappola, Anne R; Crofford, Leslie J; Guo, Wensheng

2014-01-01

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is crucial in coping with stress and maintaining homeostasis. Hormones produced by the HPA axis exhibit both complex univariate longitudinal profiles and complex relationships among different hormones. Consequently, modeling these multivariate longitudinal hormone profiles is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a bivariate hierarchical state space model, in which each hormone profile is modeled by a hierarchical state space model, with both population-average and subject-specific components. The bivariate model is constructed by concatenating the univariate models based on the hypothesized relationship. Because of the flexible framework of state space form, the resultant models not only can handle complex individual profiles, but also can incorporate complex relationships between two hormones, including both concurrent and feedback relationship. Estimation and inference are based on marginal likelihood and posterior means and variances. Computationally efficient Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used for implementation. Application of the proposed method to a study of chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia reveals that the relationships between adrenocorticotropic hormone and cortisol in the patient group are weaker than in healthy controls.

The introduction of hydrogen bond and hydrophobicity effects into the rotational isomeric states model for conformational analysis of unfolded peptides.

PubMed

Engin, Ozge; Sayar, Mehmet; Erman, Burak

2009-01-13

Relative contributions of local and non-local interactions to the unfolded conformations of peptides are examined by using the rotational isomeric states model which is a Markov model based on pairwise interactions of torsion angles. The isomeric states of a residue are well described by the Ramachandran map of backbone torsion angles. The statistical weight matrices for the states are determined by molecular dynamics simulations applied to monopeptides and dipeptides. Conformational properties of tripeptides formed from combinations of alanine, valine, tyrosine and tryptophan are investigated based on the Markov model. Comparison with molecular dynamics simulation results on these tripeptides identifies the sequence-distant long-range interactions that are missing in the Markov model. These are essentially the hydrogen bond and hydrophobic interactions that are obtained between the first and the third residue of a tripeptide. A systematic correction is proposed for incorporating these long-range interactions into the rotational isomeric states model. Preliminary results suggest that the Markov assumption can be improved significantly by renormalizing the statistical weight matrices to include the effects of the long-range correlations.

The introduction of hydrogen bond and hydrophobicity effects into the rotational isomeric states model for conformational analysis of unfolded peptides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engin, Ozge; Sayar, Mehmet; Erman, Burak

2009-03-01

Relative contributions of local and non-local interactions to the unfolded conformations of peptides are examined by using the rotational isomeric states model which is a Markov model based on pairwise interactions of torsion angles. The isomeric states of a residue are well described by the Ramachandran map of backbone torsion angles. The statistical weight matrices for the states are determined by molecular dynamics simulations applied to monopeptides and dipeptides. Conformational properties of tripeptides formed from combinations of alanine, valine, tyrosine and tryptophan are investigated based on the Markov model. Comparison with molecular dynamics simulation results on these tripeptides identifies the sequence-distant long-range interactions that are missing in the Markov model. These are essentially the hydrogen bond and hydrophobic interactions that are obtained between the first and the third residue of a tripeptide. A systematic correction is proposed for incorporating these long-range interactions into the rotational isomeric states model. Preliminary results suggest that the Markov assumption can be improved significantly by renormalizing the statistical weight matrices to include the effects of the long-range correlations.

Equation of State of the Two-Dimensional Hubbard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocchi, Eugenio; Miller, Luke A.; Drewes, Jan H.; Koschorreck, Marco; Pertot, Daniel; Brennecke, Ferdinand; Köhl, Michael

2016-04-01

The subtle interplay between kinetic energy, interactions, and dimensionality challenges our comprehension of strongly correlated physics observed, for example, in the solid state. In this quest, the Hubbard model has emerged as a conceptually simple, yet rich model describing such physics. Here we present an experimental determination of the equation of state of the repulsive two-dimensional Hubbard model over a broad range of interactions 0 ≲U /t ≲20 and temperatures, down to kBT /t =0.63 (2 ) using high-resolution imaging of ultracold fermionic atoms in optical lattices. We show density profiles, compressibilities, and double occupancies over the whole doping range, and, hence, our results constitute benchmarks for state-of-the-art theoretical approaches.

Adaptive estimation of state of charge and capacity with online identified battery model for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Tseng, King Jet; Wai, Nyunt; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2016-11-01

Reliable state estimate depends largely on an accurate battery model. However, the parameters of battery model are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging. The existing co-estimation methods address the model uncertainty by integrating the online model identification with state estimate and have shown improved accuracy. However, the cross interference may arise from the integrated framework to compromise numerical stability and accuracy. Thus this paper proposes the decoupling of model identification and state estimate to eliminate the possibility of cross interference. The model parameters are online adapted with the recursive least squares (RLS) method, based on which a novel joint estimator based on extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is formulated to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and capacity concurrently. The proposed joint estimator effectively compresses the filter order which leads to substantial improvement in the computational efficiency and numerical stability. Lab scale experiment on vanadium redox flow battery shows that the proposed method is highly authentic with good robustness to varying operating conditions and battery aging. The proposed method is further compared with some existing methods and shown to be superior in terms of accuracy, convergence speed, and computational cost.

Markov Transition Model to Dementia with Death as a Competing Event.

PubMed

Wei, Shaoceng; Xu, Liou; Kryscio, Richard J

2014-12-01

This study evaluates the effect of death as a competing event to the development of dementia in a longitudinal study of the cognitive status of elderly subjects. A multi-state Markov model with three transient states: intact cognition, mild cognitive impairment (M.C.I.) and global impairment (G.I.) and one absorbing state: dementia is used to model the cognitive panel data; transitions among states depend on four covariates age, education, prior state (intact cognition, or M.C.I., or G.I.) and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-4 allele (APOE4). A Weibull model and a Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) model are used to fit the survival from death based on age at entry and the APOE4 status. A shared random effect correlates this survival time with the transition model. Simulation studies determine the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates to the violations of the Weibull and Cox PH model assumptions. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a longitudinal cohort of 672 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.

Markov Transition Model to Dementia with Death as a Competing Event

PubMed Central

Wei, Shaoceng; Xu, Liou; Kryscio, Richard J.

2014-01-01

This study evaluates the effect of death as a competing event to the development of dementia in a longitudinal study of the cognitive status of elderly subjects. A multi-state Markov model with three transient states: intact cognition, mild cognitive impairment (M.C.I.) and global impairment (G.I.) and one absorbing state: dementia is used to model the cognitive panel data; transitions among states depend on four covariates age, education, prior state (intact cognition, or M.C.I., or G.I.) and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-4 allele (APOE4). A Weibull model and a Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) model are used to fit the survival from death based on age at entry and the APOE4 status. A shared random effect correlates this survival time with the transition model. Simulation studies determine the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates to the violations of the Weibull and Cox PH model assumptions. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a longitudinal cohort of 672 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun. PMID:25110380

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-03-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

PubMed Central

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-01-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

The architecture of dynamic reservoir in the echo state network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Hongyan; Liu, Xiang; Li, Lixiang

2012-09-01

Echo state network (ESN) has recently attracted increasing interests because of its superior capability in modeling nonlinear dynamic systems. In the conventional echo state network model, its dynamic reservoir (DR) has a random and sparse topology, which is far from the real biological neural networks from both structural and functional perspectives. We hereby propose three novel types of echo state networks with new dynamic reservoir topologies based on complex network theory, i.e., with a small-world topology, a scale-free topology, and a mixture of small-world and scale-free topologies, respectively. We then analyze the relationship between the dynamic reservoir structure and its prediction capability. We utilize two commonly used time series to evaluate the prediction performance of the three proposed echo state networks and compare them to the conventional model. We also use independent and identically distributed time series to analyze the short-term memory and prediction precision of these echo state networks. Furthermore, we study the ratio of scale-free topology and the small-world topology in the mixed-topology network, and examine its influence on the performance of the echo state networks. Our simulation results show that the proposed echo state network models have better prediction capabilities, a wider spectral radius, but retain almost the same short-term memory capacity as compared to the conventional echo state network model. We also find that the smaller the ratio of the scale-free topology over the small-world topology, the better the memory capacities.

49 CFR 599.302 - Dealer application for reimbursement-submission, contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... vehicle. (C) Model year. The model year of the vehicle. (D) Vehicle identification number (VIN). The 17... vehicle. (C) Model year. The model year of the vehicle. (D) Vehicle identification number (VIN). The 17... address of each purchaser. (C) Driver's license or State identification number. The State driver's license...

49 CFR 599.302 - Dealer application for reimbursement-submission, contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... vehicle. (C) Model year. The model year of the vehicle. (D) Vehicle identification number (VIN). The 17... vehicle. (C) Model year. The model year of the vehicle. (D) Vehicle identification number (VIN). The 17... address of each purchaser. (C) Driver's license or State identification number. The State driver's license...

49 CFR 599.302 - Dealer application for reimbursement-submission, contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... vehicle. (C) Model year. The model year of the vehicle. (D) Vehicle identification number (VIN). The 17... vehicle. (C) Model year. The model year of the vehicle. (D) Vehicle identification number (VIN). The 17... address of each purchaser. (C) Driver's license or State identification number. The State driver's license...

Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links representations of the economy, energy sector, land use, and climate within an integrated modeling environment. GCAM-USA, which is an extension of GCAM, provides U.S. state-level resolution wit...

Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making: An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management.

PubMed

Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

2016-01-01

Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease progression can often be obtained by assuming that the future state transitions do not depend only on the present state (Markov assumption) but also on the past through time since entry in the present state. Despite that these so-called semi-Markov models are still relatively straightforward to specify and implement, they are not yet routinely applied in health economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. To facilitate a better understanding of this type of model among applied health economic analysts, the first part of this article provides a detailed discussion of what the semi-Markov model entails and how such models can be specified in an intuitive way by adopting an approach called vertical modeling. In the second part of the article, we use this approach to construct a semi-Markov model for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of 3 disease management programs for heart failure. Compared with a standard Markov model with the same disease states, our proposed semi-Markov model fitted the observed data much better. When subsequently extrapolating beyond the clinical trial period, these relatively large differences in goodness-of-fit translated into almost a doubling in mean total cost and a 60-d decrease in mean survival time when using the Markov model instead of the semi-Markov model. For the disease process considered in our case study, the semi-Markov model thus provided a sensible balance between model parsimoniousness and computational complexity. © The Author(s) 2015.

Stability and bistability in a one-dimensional model of coastal foredune height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, Evan B.; Moore, Laura J.

2016-05-01

On sandy coastlines, foredunes provide protection from coastal storms, potentially sheltering low areas—including human habitat—from elevated water level and wave erosion. In this contribution we develop and explore a one-dimensional model for coastal dune height based on an impulsive differential equation. In the model, coastal foredunes continuously grow in a logistic manner as the result of a biophysical feedback and they are destroyed by recurrent storm events that are discrete in time. Modeled dunes can be in one of two states: a high "resistant-dune" state or a low "overwash-flat" state. The number of stable states (equilibrium dune heights) depends on the value of two parameters, the nondimensional storm frequency (the ratio of storm frequency to the intrinsic growth rate of dunes) and nondimensional storm magnitude (the ratio of total water level during storms to the maximum theoretical dune height). Three regions of phase space exist (1) when nondimensional storm frequency is small, a single high resistant-dune attracting state exists; (2) when both the nondimensional storm frequency and magnitude are large, there is a single overwash-flat attracting state; (3) within a defined region of phase space model dunes exhibit bistable behavior—both the resistant-dune and the low overwash-flat states are stable. Comparisons to observational studies suggest that there is evidence for each state to exist independently, the coexistence of both states (i.e., segments of barrier islands consisting of overwash-flats and segments of islands having large dunes that resist erosion by storms), as well as transitions between states.

Species-to-species rate coefficients for the H3+ + H2 reacting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sipilä, O.; Harju, J.; Caselli, P.

2017-10-01

Aims: We study whether or not rotational excitation can make a large difference to chemical models of the abundances of the H3+ isotopologs, including spin states, in physical conditions corresponding to starless cores and protostellar envelopes. Methods: We developed a new rate coefficient set for the chemistry of the H3+ isotopologs, allowing for rotational excitation, using previously published state-to-state rate coefficients. These new so-called species-to-species rate coefficients are compared with previously-used ground-state-to-species rate coefficients by calculating chemical evolution in variable physical conditions using a pseudo-time-dependent chemical code. Results: We find that the new species-to-species model produces different results to the ground state-to-species model at high density and toward increasing temperatures (T> 10 K). The most prominent difference is that the species-to-species model predicts a lower H3+ deuteration degree at high density owing to an increase of the rate coefficients of endothermic reactions that tend to decrease deuteration. For example at 20 K, the ground-state-to-species model overestimates the abundance of H2D+ by a factor of about two, while the abundance of D3+ can differ by up to an order of magnitude between the models. The spin-state abundance ratios of the various H3+ isotopologs are also affected, and the new model better reproduces recent observations of the abundances of ortho and para H2D+ and D2H+. The main caveat is that the applicability regime of the new rate coefficients depends on the critical densities of the various rotational transitions which vary with the abundances of the species and the temperature in dense clouds. Conclusions: The difference in the abundances of the H3+ isotopologs predicted by the species-to-species and ground state-to-species models is negligible at 10 K corresponding to physical conditions in starless cores, but inclusion of the excited states is very important in studies of deuteration at higher temperatures, for example in protostellar envelopes. The species-to-species rate coefficients provide a more realistic approach to the chemistry of the H3+ isotopologs than the ground-state-to-species rate coefficients do, and so the former should be adopted in chemical models describing the chemistry of the H3+ + H2 reacting system.

Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

PubMed

Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

2014-05-01

To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ab initio-informed maximum entropy modeling of rovibrational relaxation and state-specific dissociation with application to the O{sub 2} + O system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kulakhmetov, Marat, E-mail: mkulakhm@purdue.edu; Alexeenko, Alina, E-mail: alexeenk@purdue.edu; Gallis, Michael, E-mail: magalli@sandia.gov

Quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations are used to study state-specific ro-vibrational energy exchange and dissociation in the O{sub 2} + O system. Atom-diatom collisions with energy between 0.1 and 20 eV are calculated with a double many body expansion potential energy surface by Varandas and Pais [Mol. Phys. 65, 843 (1988)]. Inelastic collisions favor mono-quantum vibrational transitions at translational energies above 1.3 eV although multi-quantum transitions are also important. Post-collision vibrational favoring decreases first exponentially and then linearly as Δv increases. Vibrationally elastic collisions (Δv = 0) favor small ΔJ transitions while vibrationally inelastic collisions have equilibrium post-collision rotational distributions. Dissociationmore » exhibits both vibrational and rotational favoring. New vibrational-translational (VT), vibrational-rotational-translational (VRT) energy exchange, and dissociation models are developed based on QCT observations and maximum entropy considerations. Full set of parameters for state-to-state modeling of oxygen is presented. The VT energy exchange model describes 22 000 state-to-state vibrational cross sections using 11 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 30% in the 2500–20 000 K temperature range. The VRT model captures 80 × 10{sup 6} state-to-state ro-vibrational cross sections using 19 parameters and reproduces vibrational relaxation rates within 60% in the 5000–15 000 K temperature range. The developed dissociation model reproduces state-specific and equilibrium dissociation rates within 25% using just 48 parameters. The maximum entropy framework makes it feasible to upscale ab initio simulation to full nonequilibrium flow calculations.« less

Unraveling torsional bath interactions with the CO stretching state in methanol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, John C.; Daly, Adam M.; Lees, Ronald M.

2015-12-01

Quantum mechanical models describing the effects of a C3 internal rotor have been successful in modeling all the torsional manifolds of isolated vibrational states. However, modeling the coupling between nearly degenerate small amplitude vibrations in the C3 internal rotation case remains far from satisfactory and a variety of practical and fundamental questions persist on basis sets, the relative importance of effects and how the problem should be approached. The ν8 C-O stretching state of methanol has been well studied with infrared techniques and has the potential to serve as an experimental reference data set for the development of models for the coupled large and small amplitude motion case. A combined infrared-microwave study of the lowest K A-states of vt = 3, vt = 4 and ν8 has been performed to understand the nature of the interactions between ν8 the excited torsional states. The interaction between vt = 4 and ν8 at K = 0+ has been confirmed to be Fermi type with magnitude of 2.5 cm-1. Additionally, the fundamental a-symmetry and b-symmetry Coriolis interactions between vt = 3 and ν8 have been estimated to be 8900 MHz and -360 MHz, respectively. The magnitude of these interactions suggests that modeling the ν8 state, the vt = 3 state, and the vt = 4 states will have to carefully account for these interactions.

A new possible picture of the hadron structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pokrovsky, Yury E.

A new chiral-scale invariant version of the bag model (CSB) is developed and applied to calculations of masses and radii for single bag states. The mass formula of the CSB model contains no free parameters and connects masses and radii of the bags with fundamental QCD scales, namely with {lambda}{sub QCD}, , , and quark masses. For high angular momentum states the CSB model well describes hadron Regge trajectories and predicts thin flux tubes with R{sub tube}{approx_equal}0.25 fm close to the small tube radii introduced a posteriori in modern models. For low angular momentum states this model predicts smallmore » radii of the bags R{sub bag}{approx_equal}0.25 fm close to the radii associated with constituent quarks. Masses of the lowest angular momentum bags are obtained close to the data for well known hadron resonances ({pi}(1300), {omega}(1420), N(1440),{delta}(1600), etc.). These resonances are predicted to be almost single bag states. But ground states of SU(3) hadrons (N(940), {pi}(140), etc.) are treated as strongly bounded multi bag states--BagBag-mesons, and BagBagBag-baryons like in the old Fermi, Yang, and Sakata models. As well, this model predicts the low mass excitations of SU(3) hadrons newly observed for nucleons at the following masses 1004, 1044, and 1094 MeV.« less

Generation of Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DODAF) Models Using the Monterey Phoenix Behavior Modeling Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

63 Figure 30. Order processing state diagram (after Fowler and Scott 1997). ......................64 x Figure 32. Four of...events, precedence and inclusion. Figure 30 shows an OV-6b for order processing states. 64 Figure 30. Order processing state diagram (after Fowler... Order Processing State Transition Starts at checking order Ends at order delivered

Phase space flow of particles in squeezed states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ceperley, Peter H.

1994-01-01

The manipulation of noise and uncertainty in squeezed states is governed by the wave nature of the quantum mechanical particles in these states. This paper uses a deterministic model of quantum mechanics in which real guiding waves control the flow of localized particles. This model will be used to examine the phase space flow of particles in typical squeezed states.

Identification of linear system models and state estimators for controls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Chung-Wen

1992-01-01

The following paper is presented in viewgraph format and covers topics including: (1) linear state feedback control system; (2) Kalman filter state estimation; (3) relation between residual and stochastic part of output; (4) obtaining Kalman filter gain; (5) state estimation under unknown system model and unknown noises; and (6) relationship between filter Markov parameters and system Markov parameters.

State tobacco control expenditures and tax paid cigarette sales

PubMed Central

Tauras, John A.; Xu, Xin; Huang, Jidong; King, Brian; Lavinghouze, S. Rene; Sneegas, Karla S.; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2018-01-01

This research is the first nationally representative study to examine the relationship between actual state-level tobacco control spending in each of the 5 CDC’s Best Practices for Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program categories and cigarette sales. We employed several alternative two-way fixed-effects regression techniques to estimate the determinants of cigarette sales in the United States for the years 2008–2012. State spending on tobacco control was found to have a negative and significant impact on cigarette sales in all models that were estimated. Spending in the areas of cessation interventions, health communication interventions, and state and community interventions were found to have a negative impact on cigarette sales in all models that were estimated, whereas spending in the areas of surveillance and evaluation, and administration and management were found to have negative effects on cigarette sales in only some models. Our models predict that states that spend up to seven times their current levels could still see significant reductions in cigarette sales. The findings from this research could help inform further investments in state tobacco control programs. PMID:29652890

Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks coevolving with dynamic node states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Heitzig, Jobst; Lucht, Wolfgang; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-05-01

In many real-world complex systems, the time evolution of the network's structure and the dynamic state of its nodes are closely entangled. Here we study opinion formation and imitation on an adaptive complex network which is dependent on the individual dynamic state of each node and vice versa to model the coevolution of renewable resources with the dynamics of harvesting agents on a social network. The adaptive voter model is coupled to a set of identical logistic growth models and we mainly find that, in such systems, the rate of interactions between nodes as well as the adaptive rewiring probability are crucial parameters for controlling the sustainability of the system's equilibrium state. We derive a macroscopic description of the system in terms of ordinary differential equations which provides a general framework to model and quantify the influence of single node dynamics on the macroscopic state of the network. The thus obtained framework is applicable to many fields of study, such as epidemic spreading, opinion formation, or socioecological modeling.

A general theory of kinetics and thermodynamics of steady-state copolymerization.

PubMed

Shu, Yao-Gen; Song, Yong-Shun; Ou-Yang, Zhong-Can; Li, Ming

2015-06-17

Kinetics of steady-state copolymerization has been investigated since the 1940s. Irreversible terminal and penultimate models were successfully applied to a number of comonomer systems, but failed for systems where depropagation is significant. Although a general mathematical treatment of the terminal model with depropagation was established in the 1980s, a penultimate model and higher-order terminal models with depropagation have not been systematically studied, since depropagation leads to hierarchically-coupled and unclosed kinetic equations which are hard to solve analytically. In this work, we propose a truncation method to solve the steady-state kinetic equations of any-order terminal models with depropagation in a unified way, by reducing them into closed steady-state equations which give the exact solution of the original kinetic equations. Based on the steady-state equations, we also derive a general thermodynamic equality in which the Shannon entropy of the copolymer sequence is explicitly introduced as part of the free energy dissipation of the whole copolymerization system.

The effect of the Mihalas, Hummer, and Daeppen equation of state and the molecular opacity on the standard solar model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Y.-C.; Demarque, P.; Guenther, D. B.

1991-01-01

Improvements to the Yale Rotating Stellar Evolution Code (YREC) by incorporating the Mihalas-Hummer-Daeppen equation of state, an improved opacity interpolation routine, and the effects of molecular opacities, calculated at Los Alamos, have been made. the effect of each of the improvements on the standard solar model has been tested independently by computing the corresponding solar nonradial oscillation frequencies. According to these tests, the Mihalas-Hummer-Daeppen equation of state has very little effect on the model's low l p-mode oscillation spectrum compared to the model using the existing analytical equation of state implemented in YREC. On the other hand, the molecular opacity does improve the model's oscillation spectrum. The effect of molecular opacity on the computed solar oscillation frequencies is much larger than that of the Mihalas-Hummer-Daeppen equation of state. together, the two improvements to the physics reduce the discrepancy with observations by 10 microHz for the low l modes.

Time delay in the Kuramoto model of coupled-phase oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeung, Man Kit Stephen

1999-10-01

The Kuramoto model is a mean-field model of coupled phase oscillators with distributed natural frequencies. It was proposed to study collective synchronization in large systems of nonlinear oscillators. Here we generalize this model to allow time-delayed interactions. Despite the delay, synchronization is still possible. We derive exact stability conditions for the incoherent state, and for synchronized states and clustering states in the special case of noiseless identical oscillators. We also study the bifurcations of these states. We find that the incoherent state loses stability in a Hopf bifurcation. In the absence of noise, this leads to partial synchrony, where some oscillators are entrained to a common frequency. New phenomena caused by the delay include multistability among synchronization, incoherence, and clustering; and unsteady solutions with time-dependent order parameters. The experimental implications of the model are discussed for populations of chirping crickets, where the finite speed of sound causes communication delays, and for physical systems such as coupled phase- locked loops, lasers, and communication satellites.

Seizure Dynamics of Coupled Oscillators with Epileptor Field Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Honghui; Xiao, Pengcheng

The focus of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of seizure activities by using the Epileptor coupled model. Based on the coexistence of seizure-like event (SLE), refractory status epilepticus (RSE), depolarization block (DB), and normal state, we first study the dynamical behaviors of two coupled oscillators in different activity states with Epileptor model by linking them with slow permittivity coupling. Our research has found that when one oscillator in normal states is coupled with any oscillator in SLE, RSE or DB states, these two oscillators can both evolve into SLE states under appropriate coupling strength. And then these two SLE oscillators can perform epileptiform synchronization or epileptiform anti-synchronization. Meanwhile, SLE can be depressed when considering the fast electrical or chemical coupling in Epileptor model. Additionally, a two-dimensional reduced model is also given to show the effect of coupling number on seizures. Those results can help to understand the dynamical mechanism of the initiation, maintenance, propagation and termination of seizures in focal epilepsy.

Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks coevolving with dynamic node states.

PubMed

Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F; Heitzig, Jobst; Lucht, Wolfgang; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-05-01

In many real-world complex systems, the time evolution of the network's structure and the dynamic state of its nodes are closely entangled. Here we study opinion formation and imitation on an adaptive complex network which is dependent on the individual dynamic state of each node and vice versa to model the coevolution of renewable resources with the dynamics of harvesting agents on a social network. The adaptive voter model is coupled to a set of identical logistic growth models and we mainly find that, in such systems, the rate of interactions between nodes as well as the adaptive rewiring probability are crucial parameters for controlling the sustainability of the system's equilibrium state. We derive a macroscopic description of the system in terms of ordinary differential equations which provides a general framework to model and quantify the influence of single node dynamics on the macroscopic state of the network. The thus obtained framework is applicable to many fields of study, such as epidemic spreading, opinion formation, or socioecological modeling.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

Generalised filtering and stochastic DCM for fMRI.

PubMed

Li, Baojuan; Daunizeau, Jean; Stephan, Klaas E; Penny, Will; Hu, Dewen; Friston, Karl

2011-09-15

This paper is about the fitting or inversion of dynamic causal models (DCMs) of fMRI time series. It tries to establish the validity of stochastic DCMs that accommodate random fluctuations in hidden neuronal and physiological states. We compare and contrast deterministic and stochastic DCMs, which do and do not ignore random fluctuations or noise on hidden states. We then compare stochastic DCMs, which do and do not ignore conditional dependence between hidden states and model parameters (generalised filtering and dynamic expectation maximisation, respectively). We first characterise state-noise by comparing the log evidence of models with different a priori assumptions about its amplitude, form and smoothness. Face validity of the inversion scheme is then established using data simulated with and without state-noise to ensure that DCM can identify the parameters and model that generated the data. Finally, we address construct validity using real data from an fMRI study of internet addiction. Our analyses suggest the following. (i) The inversion of stochastic causal models is feasible, given typical fMRI data. (ii) State-noise has nontrivial amplitude and smoothness. (iii) Stochastic DCM has face validity, in the sense that Bayesian model comparison can distinguish between data that have been generated with high and low levels of physiological noise and model inversion provides veridical estimates of effective connectivity. (iv) Relaxing conditional independence assumptions can have greater construct validity, in terms of revealing group differences not disclosed by variational schemes. Finally, we note that the ability to model endogenous or random fluctuations on hidden neuronal (and physiological) states provides a new and possibly more plausible perspective on how regionally specific signals in fMRI are generated. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An improved state-parameter analysis of ecosystem models using data assimilation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, M.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.

2008-01-01

Much of the effort spent in developing data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be lowered if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) by combining ensemble Kalman filter with kernel smoothing technique. SEnKF has following characteristics: (1) to estimate simultaneously the model states and parameters through concatenating unknown parameters and state variables into a joint state vector; (2) to mitigate dramatic, sudden changes of parameter values in parameter sampling and parameter evolution process, and control narrowing of parameter variance which results in filter divergence through adjusting smoothing factor in kernel smoothing algorithm; (3) to assimilate recursively data into the model and thus detect possible time variation of parameters; and (4) to address properly various sources of uncertainties stemming from input, output and parameter uncertainties. The SEnKF is tested by assimilating observed fluxes of carbon dioxide and environmental driving factor data from an AmeriFlux forest station located near Howland, Maine, USA, into a partition eddy flux model. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and others, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the simultaneous parameter estimation procedure significantly improves model predictions. Results also show that the SEnKF can dramatically reduce the variance in state variables stemming from the uncertainty of parameters and driving variables. The SEnKF is a robust and effective algorithm in evaluating and developing ecosystem models and in improving the understanding and quantification of carbon cycle parameters and processes. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mook, D. Joseph

1988-01-01

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

Maximum likelihood-based analysis of single-molecule photon arrival trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdziona, Marta; Molski, Andrzej

2011-02-01

In this work we explore the statistical properties of the maximum likelihood-based analysis of one-color photon arrival trajectories. This approach does not involve binning and, therefore, all of the information contained in an observed photon strajectory is used. We study the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and the efficiency of the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in selecting the true kinetic model. We focus on the low excitation regime where photon trajectories can be modeled as realizations of Markov modulated Poisson processes. The number of observed photons is the key parameter in determining model selection and parameter estimation. For example, the BIC can select the true three-state model from competing two-, three-, and four-state kinetic models even for relatively short trajectories made up of 2 × 103 photons. When the intensity levels are well-separated and 104 photons are observed, the two-state model parameters can be estimated with about 10% precision and those for a three-state model with about 20% precision.

Emergent Chiral Spin State in the Mott Phase of a Bosonic Kane-Mele-Hubbard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plekhanov, Kirill; Vasić, Ivana; Petrescu, Alexandru; Nirwan, Rajbir; Roux, Guillaume; Hofstetter, Walter; Le Hur, Karyn

2018-04-01

Recently, the frustrated X Y model for spins 1 /2 on the honeycomb lattice has attracted a lot of attention in relation with the possibility to realize a chiral spin liquid state. This model is relevant to the physics of some quantum magnets. Using the flexibility of ultracold atom setups, we propose an alternative way to realize this model through the Mott regime of the bosonic Kane-Mele-Hubbard model. The phase diagram of this model is derived using bosonic dynamical mean-field theory. Focusing on the Mott phase, we investigate its magnetic properties as a function of frustration. We do find an emergent chiral spin state in the intermediate frustration regime. Using exact diagonalization we study more closely the physics of the effective frustrated X Y model and the properties of the chiral spin state. This gapped phase displays a chiral order, breaking time-reversal and parity symmetry, but is not topologically ordered (the Chern number is zero).

Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

Effect of Clustering Algorithm on Establishing Markov State Model for Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Dong, Zigang

2016-06-27

Recently, the Markov state model has been applied for kinetic analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. However, discretization of the conformational space remains a primary challenge in model building, and it is not clear how the space decomposition by distinct clustering strategies exerts influence on the model output. In this work, different clustering algorithms are employed to partition the conformational space sampled in opening and closing of fatty acid binding protein 4 as well as inactivation and activation of the epidermal growth factor receptor. Various classifications are achieved, and Markov models are set up accordingly. On the basis of the models, the total net flux and transition rate are calculated between two distinct states. Our results indicate that geometric and kinetic clustering perform equally well. The construction and outcome of Markov models are heavily dependent on the data traits. Compared to other methods, a combination of Bayesian and hierarchical clustering is feasible in identification of metastable states.

Recapitalization and Acquisition of Light Tactical Wheeled Vehicles (REDACTED)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-29

representative from Red River Army Depot in Texarkana , Texas,18 stated that recapitalizing current HMMWVs to the XM1166 model was an excellent proposition...Red River Army Depot in Texarkana , Texas, stated that recapitalizing current HMMWVs to the XM1166 model was an excellent proposition. The Deputy...Army Depot in Texarkana , Texas, stated that recapitalizing current HMMWVs to the XM1166 model was an excellent proposition because the U.S

Distinct promoter activation mechanisms modulate noise-driven HIV gene expression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavali, Arvind K.; Wong, Victor C.; Miller-Jensen, Kathryn

2015-12-01

Latent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections occur when the virus occupies a transcriptionally silent but reversible state, presenting a major obstacle to cure. There is experimental evidence that random fluctuations in gene expression, when coupled to the strong positive feedback encoded by the HIV genetic circuit, act as a ‘molecular switch’ controlling cell fate, i.e., viral replication versus latency. Here, we implemented a stochastic computational modeling approach to explore how different promoter activation mechanisms in the presence of positive feedback would affect noise-driven activation from latency. We modeled the HIV promoter as existing in one, two, or three states that are representative of increasingly complex mechanisms of promoter repression underlying latency. We demonstrate that two-state and three-state models are associated with greater variability in noisy activation behaviors, and we find that Fano factor (defined as variance over mean) proves to be a useful noise metric to compare variability across model structures and parameter values. Finally, we show how three-state promoter models can be used to qualitatively describe complex reactivation phenotypes in response to therapeutic perturbations that we observe experimentally. Ultimately, our analysis suggests that multi-state models more accurately reflect observed heterogeneous reactivation and may be better suited to evaluate how noise affects viral clearance.

How the Whole School, Whole Community, Whole Child Model Works: Creating Greater Alignment, Integration, and Collaboration Between Health and Education

PubMed Central

Chiang, Rachelle Johnsson; Meagher, Whitney; Slade, Sean

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND The Whole School, Whole Community, Whole Child (WSCC) model calls for greater collaboration across the community, school, and health sectors to meet the needs and support the full potential of each child. This article reports on how 3 states and 2 local school districts have implemented aspects of the WSCC model through collaboration, leadership and policy creation, alignment, and implementation. METHODS We searched state health and education department websites, local school district websites, state legislative databases, and sources of peer-reviewed and gray literature to identify materials demonstrating adoption and implementation of coordinated school health, the WSCC model, and associated policies and practices in identified states and districts. We conducted informal interviews in each state and district to reinforce the document review. RESULTS States and local school districts have been able to strategically increase collaboration, integration, and alignment of health and education through the adoption and implementation of policy and practice supporting the WSCC model. Successful utilization of the WSCC model has led to substantial positive changes in school health environments, policies, and practices. CONCLUSIONS Collaboration among health and education sectors to integrate and align services may lead to improved efficiencies and better health and education outcomes for students. PMID:26440819

2018 Regional, State, and Local Modelers' Workshop

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The 2018 Regional, State, and Local (RSL) Modelers' Workshop is being held at the EPA's Region 1 Offices in Boston, MA from June 5-7, 2018. This page provides information on the agenda and registration for the RSL Modelers' Workshop.

Fidelity study of the superconducting phase diagram in the two-dimensional single-band Hubbard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, C. J.; Moritz, B.; Chen, C.-C.; Shastry, B. Sriram; Devereaux, T. P.

2011-09-01

Extensive numerical studies have demonstrated that the two-dimensional single-band Hubbard model contains much of the key physics in cuprate high-temperature superconductors. However, there is no definitive proof that the Hubbard model truly possesses a superconducting ground state or, if it does, of how it depends on model parameters. To answer these longstanding questions, we study an extension of the Hubbard model including an infinite-range d-wave pair field term, which precipitates a superconducting state in the d-wave channel. Using exact diagonalization on 16-site square clusters, we study the evolution of the ground state as a function of the strength of the pairing term. This is achieved by monitoring the fidelity metric of the ground state, as well as determining the ratio between the two largest eigenvalues of the d-wave pair/spin/charge-density matrices. The calculations show a d-wave superconducting ground state in doped clusters bracketed by a strong antiferromagnetic state at half filling controlled by the Coulomb repulsion U and a weak short-range checkerboard charge ordered state at larger hole doping controlled by the next-nearest-neighbor hopping t'. We also demonstrate that negative t' plays an important role in facilitating d-wave superconductivity.

Modelling hard and soft states of Cygnus X-1 with propagating mass accretion rate fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapisarda, S.; Ingram, A.; van der Klis, M.

2017-12-01

We present a timing analysis of three Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary Cygnus X-1 with the propagating mass accretion rate fluctuations model PROPFLUC. The model simultaneously predicts power spectra, time lags and coherence of the variability as a function of energy. The observations cover the soft and hard states of the source, and the transition between the two. We find good agreement between model predictions and data in the hard and soft states. Our analysis suggests that in the soft state the fluctuations propagate in an optically thin hot flow extending up to large radii above and below a stable optically thick disc. In the hard state, our results are consistent with a truncated disc geometry, where the hot flow extends radially inside the inner radius of the disc. In the transition from soft to hard state, the characteristics of the rapid variability are too complex to be successfully described with PROPFLUC. The surface density profile of the hot flow predicted by our model and the lack of quasi-periodic oscillations in the soft and hard states suggest that the spin of the black hole is aligned with the inner accretion disc and therefore probably with the rotational axis of the binary system.

State funding for higher education and RN replacement rates by state: a case for nursing by the numbers in state legislatures.

PubMed

Bargagliotti, L Antoinette

2009-01-01

Amid an enduring nursing shortage and state budget shortfalls, discerning how the percentage of state funding to higher education and other registered nurse (RN) workforce variables may be related to the RN replacement rates (RNRR) in states has important policy implications. Regionally, the age of RNs was inversely related to RNRR. State funding in 2000 significantly predicted the 2004 RNRR, with the percentage of LPNs in 2004 adding to the model. The stability of the model using 2000 and 2004 funding data suggests that state funding creates a climate for RNRR.

Adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control of resistive wall modes in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Sen, A. K.; Longman, R. W.

2006-01-01

An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least-square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify (experimentally determine) the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time-dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.

Adaptive Optimal Stochastic State Feedback Control of Resistive Wall Modes in Tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Sen, A. K.; Longman, R. W.

2007-06-01

An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.

State-based versus reward-based motivation in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Worthy, Darrell A; Cooper, Jessica A; Byrne, Kaileigh A; Gorlick, Marissa A; Maddox, W Todd

2014-12-01

Recent decision-making work has focused on a distinction between a habitual, model-free neural system that is motivated toward actions that lead directly to reward and a more computationally demanding goal-directed, model-based system that is motivated toward actions that improve one's future state. In this article, we examine how aging affects motivation toward reward-based versus state-based decision making. Participants performed tasks in which one type of option provided larger immediate rewards but the alternative type of option led to larger rewards on future trials, or improvements in state. We predicted that older adults would show a reduced preference for choices that led to improvements in state and a greater preference for choices that maximized immediate reward. We also predicted that fits from a hybrid reinforcement-learning model would indicate greater model-based strategy use in younger than in older adults. In line with these predictions, older adults selected the options that maximized reward more often than did younger adults in three of the four tasks, and modeling results suggested reduced model-based strategy use. In the task where older adults showed similar behavior to younger adults, our model-fitting results suggested that this was due to the utilization of a win-stay-lose-shift heuristic rather than a more complex model-based strategy. Additionally, within older adults, we found that model-based strategy use was positively correlated with memory measures from our neuropsychological test battery. We suggest that this shift from state-based to reward-based motivation may be due to age related declines in the neural structures needed for more computationally demanding model-based decision making.

ECOLOGICAL THEORY. A general consumer-resource population model.

PubMed

Lafferty, Kevin D; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J; Dobson, Andrew P; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M

2015-08-21

Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A single Markov-type kinetic model accounting for the macroscopic currents of all human voltage-gated sodium channel isoforms.

PubMed

Balbi, Pietro; Massobrio, Paolo; Hellgren Kotaleski, Jeanette

2017-09-01

Modelling ionic channels represents a fundamental step towards developing biologically detailed neuron models. Until recently, the voltage-gated ion channels have been mainly modelled according to the formalism introduced by the seminal works of Hodgkin and Huxley (HH). However, following the continuing achievements in the biophysical and molecular comprehension of these pore-forming transmembrane proteins, the HH formalism turned out to carry limitations and inconsistencies in reproducing the ion-channels electrophysiological behaviour. At the same time, Markov-type kinetic models have been increasingly proven to successfully replicate both the electrophysiological and biophysical features of different ion channels. However, in order to model even the finest non-conducting molecular conformational change, they are often equipped with a considerable number of states and related transitions, which make them computationally heavy and less suitable for implementation in conductance-based neurons and large networks of those. In this purely modelling study we develop a Markov-type kinetic model for all human voltage-gated sodium channels (VGSCs). The model framework is detailed, unifying (i.e., it accounts for all ion-channel isoforms) and computationally efficient (i.e. with a minimal set of states and transitions). The electrophysiological data to be modelled are gathered from previously published studies on whole-cell patch-clamp experiments in mammalian cell lines heterologously expressing the human VGSC subtypes (from NaV1.1 to NaV1.9). By adopting a minimum sequence of states, and using the same state diagram for all the distinct isoforms, the model ensures the lightest computational load when used in neuron models and neural networks of increasing complexity. The transitions between the states are described by original ordinary differential equations, which represent the rate of the state transitions as a function of voltage (i.e., membrane potential). The kinetic model, developed in the NEURON simulation environment, appears to be the simplest and most parsimonious way for a detailed phenomenological description of the human VGSCs electrophysiological behaviour.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

DOE PAGES

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; ...

2015-10-24

Here, as part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak-temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistentmore » implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.« less

A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

PubMed Central

Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

2014-01-01

The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between neuronal populations also opens new doors to analyze the joint dynamics of multiple interacting networks. PMID:25520644

Identification of flexible structures by frequency-domain observability range context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, M. A.

2013-04-01

The well known frequency-domain observability range space extraction (FORSE) algorithm provides a powerful multivariable system-identification tool with inherent flexibility, to create state-space models from frequency-response data (FRD). This paper presents a method of using FORSE to create "context models" of a lightly damped system, from which models of individual resonant modes can be extracted. Further, it shows how to combine the extracted models of many individual modes into one large state-space model. Using this method, the author has created very high-order state-space models that accurately match measured FRD over very broad bandwidths, i.e., resonant peaks spread across five orders-of-magnitude of frequency bandwidth.

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Modeling volatility using state space models.

PubMed

Timmer, J; Weigend, A S

1997-08-01

In time series problems, noise can be divided into two categories: dynamic noise which drives the process, and observational noise which is added in the measurement process, but does not influence future values of the system. In this framework, we show that empirical volatilities (the squared relative returns of prices) exhibit a significant amount of observational noise. To model and predict their time evolution adequately, we estimate state space models that explicitly include observational noise. We obtain relaxation times for shocks in the logarithm of volatility ranging from three weeks (for foreign exchange) to three to five months (for stock indices). In most cases, a two-dimensional hidden state is required to yield residuals that are consistent with white noise. We compare these results with ordinary autoregressive models (without a hidden state) and find that autoregressive models underestimate the relaxation times by about two orders of magnitude since they do not distinguish between observational and dynamic noise. This new interpretation of the dynamics of volatility in terms of relaxators in a state space model carries over to stochastic volatility models and to GARCH models, and is useful for several problems in finance, including risk management and the pricing of derivative securities. Data sets used: Olsen & Associates high frequency DEM/USD foreign exchange rates (8 years). Nikkei 225 index (40 years). Dow Jones Industrial Average (25 years).

State-level minimum wage and heart disease death rates in the United States, 1980-2015: A novel application of marginal structural modeling.

PubMed

Van Dyke, Miriam E; Komro, Kelli A; Shah, Monica P; Livingston, Melvin D; Kramer, Michael R

2018-07-01

Despite substantial declines since the 1960's, heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States (US) and geographic disparities in heart disease mortality have grown. State-level socioeconomic factors might be important contributors to geographic differences in heart disease mortality. This study examined the association between state-level minimum wage increases above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates from 1980 to 2015 among 'working age' individuals aged 35-64 years in the US. Annual, inflation-adjusted state and federal minimum wage data were extracted from legal databases and annual state-level heart disease death rates were obtained from CDC Wonder. Although most minimum wage and health studies to date use conventional regression models, we employed marginal structural models to account for possible time-varying confounding. Quasi-experimental, marginal structural models accounting for state, year, and state × year fixed effects estimated the association between increases in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates. In models of 'working age' adults (35-64 years old), a $1 increase in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage was on average associated with ~6 fewer heart disease deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: -10.4, -1.99), or a state-level heart disease death rate that was 3.5% lower per year. In contrast, for older adults (65+ years old) a $1 increase was on average associated with a 1.1% lower state-level heart disease death rate per year (b = -28.9 per 100,000, 95% CI: -71.1, 13.3). State-level economic policies are important targets for population health research. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combination of Markov state models and kinetic networks for the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations of peptide folding.

PubMed

Radford, Isolde H; Fersht, Alan R; Settanni, Giovanni

2011-06-09

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of the TZ1 beta-hairpin peptide have been carried out using an implicit model for the solvent. The trajectories have been analyzed using a Markov state model defined on the projections along two significant observables and a kinetic network approach. The Markov state model allowed for an unbiased identification of the metastable states of the system, and provided the basis for commitment probability calculations performed on the kinetic network. The kinetic network analysis served to extract the main transition state for folding of the peptide and to validate the results from the Markov state analysis. The combination of the two techniques allowed for a consistent and concise characterization of the dynamics of the peptide. The slowest relaxation process identified is the exchange between variably folded and denatured species, and the second slowest process is the exchange between two different subsets of the denatured state which could not be otherwise identified by simple inspection of the projected trajectory. The third slowest process is the exchange between a fully native and a partially folded intermediate state characterized by a native turn with a proximal backbone H-bond, and frayed side-chain packing and termini. The transition state for the main folding reaction is similar to the intermediate state, although a more native like side-chain packing is observed.

A model for rotorcraft flying qualities studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mittal, Manoj; Costello, Mark F.

1993-01-01

This paper outlines the development of a mathematical model that is expected to be useful for rotorcraft flying qualities research. A computer model is presented that can be applied to a range of different rotorcraft configurations. The algorithm computes vehicle trim and a linear state-space model of the aircraft. The trim algorithm uses non linear optimization theory to solve the nonlinear algebraic trim equations. The linear aircraft equations consist of an airframe model and a flight control system dynamic model. The airframe model includes coupled rotor and fuselage rigid body dynamics and aerodynamics. The aerodynamic model for the rotors utilizes blade element theory and a three state dynamic inflow model. Aerodynamics of the fuselage and fuselage empennages are included. The linear state-space description for the flight control system is developed using standard block diagram data.

Steady state volcanism - Evidence from eruption histories of polygenetic volcanoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wadge, G.

1982-01-01

Cumulative volcano volume curves are presented as evidence for steady-state behavior at certain volcanoes and to develop a model of steady-state volcanism. A minimum criteria of five eruptions over a year was chosen to characterize a steady-state volcano. The subsequent model features a constant head of magmatic pressure from a reservoir supplied from depth, a sawtooth curve produced by the magma arrivals or discharge from the subvolcanic reservoir, large volume eruptions with long repose periods, and conditions of nonsupply of magma. The behavior of Mts. Etna, Nyamuragira, and Kilauea are described and show continuous levels of plasma output resulting in cumulative volume increases. Further discussion is made of steady-state andesitic and dacitic volcanism, long term patterns of the steady state, and magma storage, and the lack of a sufficient number of steady-state volcanoes in the world is taken as evidence that further data is required for a comprehensive model.

Hierarchy of simulation models for a turbofan gas engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Longenbaker, W. E.; Leake, R. J.

1977-01-01

Steady-state and transient performance of an F-100-like turbofan gas engine are modeled by a computer program, DYNGEN, developed by NASA. The model employs block data maps and includes about 25 states. Low-order nonlinear analytical and linear techniques are described in terms of their application to the model. Experimental comparisons illustrating the accuracy of each model are presented.

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

The effects of modeling contingencies in the treatment of food selectivity in children with autism.

PubMed

Fu, Sherrene B; Penrod, Becky; Fernand, Jonathan K; Whelan, Colleen M; Griffith, Kristin; Medved, Shannon

2015-11-01

The current study investigated the effectiveness of stating and modeling contingencies in increasing food consumption for two children with food selectivity. Results suggested that stating and modeling a differential reinforcement (DR) contingency for food consumption was effective in increasing consumption of two target foods for one child, and stating and modeling a DR plus nonremoval of the spoon contingency was effective in increasing consumption of the remaining food for the first child and all target foods for the second child. © The Author(s) 2015.

Individualized Cognitive Modeling for Close-Loop Task Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Guangfan; Xu, Roger; Wang, Wei; Li, Jiang; Schnell, Tom; Keller, Mike

2010-01-01

An accurate real-time operator functional state assessment makes it possible to perform task management, minimize risks, and improve mission performance. In this paper, we discuss the development of an individualized operator functional state assessment model that identifies states likely leading to operational errors. To address large individual variations, we use two different approaches to build a model for each individual using its data as well as data from subjects with similar responses. If a subject's response is similar to that of the individual of interest in a specific functional state, all the training data from this subject will be used to build the individual model. The individualization methods have been successfully verified and validated with a driving test data set provided by University of Iowa. With the individualized models, the mean squared error can be significantly decreased (by around 20%).

Digital soil mapping as a tool for quantifying state-and-transition models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecological sites and associated state-and-transition models (STMs) are rapidly becoming important land management tools in rangeland systems in the US and around the world. Descriptions of states and transitions are largely developed from expert knowledge and generally accepted species and community...

An optimal state estimation model of sensory integration in human postural balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Arthur D.

2005-09-01

We propose a model for human postural balance, combining state feedback control with optimal state estimation. State estimation uses an internal model of body and sensor dynamics to process sensor information and determine body orientation. Three sensory modalities are modeled: joint proprioception, vestibular organs in the inner ear, and vision. These are mated with a two degree-of-freedom model of body dynamics in the sagittal plane. Linear quadratic optimal control is used to design state feedback and estimation gains. Nine free parameters define the control objective and the signal-to-noise ratios of the sensors. The model predicts statistical properties of human sway in terms of covariance of ankle and hip motion. These predictions are compared with normal human responses to alterations in sensory conditions. With a single parameter set, the model successfully reproduces the general nature of postural motion as a function of sensory environment. Parameter variations reveal that the model is highly robust under normal sensory conditions, but not when two or more sensors are inaccurate. This behavior is similar to that of normal human subjects. We propose that age-related sensory changes may be modeled with decreased signal-to-noise ratios, and compare the model's behavior with degraded sensors against experimental measurements from older adults. We also examine removal of the model's vestibular sense, which leads to instability similar to that observed in bilateral vestibular loss subjects. The model may be useful for predicting which sensors are most critical for balance, and how much they can deteriorate before posture becomes unstable.

40 CFR 86.1705-99 - General provisions; opt-in.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... National LEV extends only until model year 2004, except as provided in 40 CFR 86.1707. For the duration of... above. STATE's participation in National LEV extends until model year 2006, except as provided in 40 CFR... vehicles in model year 2004, 2005 or 2006, STATE's participation in National LEV extends only until model...

Spatial distribution of water supply in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Michael T. Hobbins; Jorge A. Ramirez

2008-01-01

Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953-1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter- Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection-Aridity model and the Zhang model. The...

Information Flow in an Atmospheric Model and Data Assimilation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-01-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background…

Incorporating Air Pollutant Emission Factors and State-Level Controls and Energy Policies within the GCAM-USA Integrated Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links representations of the economy, energy sector, land use, and climate within an integrated modeling environment. GCAM-USA, which is an extension of GCAM, provides U.S. state-level resolution wit...

Equivalence and Differences between Structural Equation Modeling and State-Space Modeling Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Sy-Miin; Ho, Moon-ho R.; Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.

2010-01-01

State-space modeling techniques have been compared to structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques in various contexts but their unique strengths have often been overshadowed by their similarities to SEM. In this article, we provide a comprehensive discussion of these 2 approaches' similarities and differences through analytic comparisons and…

Generative Computer-Assisted Instruction and Artificial Intelligence. Report No. 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinnott, Loraine T.

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in generative computer-assisted instruction and artificial intelligence. It divides relevant research into three areas of instructional modeling: models of the subject matter; models of the learner's state of knowledge; and models of teaching strategies. Within these areas, work sponsored by Advanced…

Multiensemble Markov models of molecular thermodynamics and kinetics.

PubMed

Wu, Hao; Paul, Fabian; Wehmeyer, Christoph; Noé, Frank

2016-06-07

We introduce the general transition-based reweighting analysis method (TRAM), a statistically optimal approach to integrate both unbiased and biased molecular dynamics simulations, such as umbrella sampling or replica exchange. TRAM estimates a multiensemble Markov model (MEMM) with full thermodynamic and kinetic information at all ensembles. The approach combines the benefits of Markov state models-clustering of high-dimensional spaces and modeling of complex many-state systems-with those of the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio of exploiting biased or high-temperature ensembles to accelerate rare-event sampling. TRAM does not depend on any rate model in addition to the widely used Markov state model approximation, but uses only fundamental relations such as detailed balance and binless reweighting of configurations between ensembles. Previous methods, including the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio, discrete TRAM, and Markov state models are special cases and can be derived from the TRAM equations. TRAM is demonstrated by efficiently computing MEMMs in cases where other estimators break down, including the full thermodynamics and rare-event kinetics from high-dimensional simulation data of an all-atom protein-ligand binding model.

Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

2017-05-01

Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

Mathematical modeling of ethanol production in solid-state fermentation based on solid medium' dry weight variation.

PubMed

Mazaheri, Davood; Shojaosadati, Seyed Abbas; Zamir, Seyed Morteza; Mousavi, Seyyed Mohammad

2018-04-21

In this work, mathematical modeling of ethanol production in solid-state fermentation (SSF) has been done based on the variation in the dry weight of solid medium. This method was previously used for mathematical modeling of enzyme production; however, the model should be modified to predict the production of a volatile compound like ethanol. The experimental results of bioethanol production from the mixture of carob pods and wheat bran by Zymomonas mobilis in SSF were used for the model validation. Exponential and logistic kinetic models were used for modeling the growth of microorganism. In both cases, the model predictions matched well with the experimental results during the exponential growth phase, indicating the good ability of solid medium weight variation method for modeling a volatile product formation in solid-state fermentation. In addition, using logistic model, better predictions were obtained.

Continuous state-space representation of a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model: a case study with the GR4 model using state-space GR4 (version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles

2018-04-01

In many conceptual rainfall-runoff models, the water balance differential equations are not explicitly formulated. These differential equations are solved sequentially by splitting the equations into terms that can be solved analytically with a technique called operator splitting. As a result, only the solutions of the split equations are used to present the different models. This article provides a methodology to make the governing water balance equations of a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model explicit and to solve them continuously. This is done by setting up a comprehensive state-space representation of the model. By representing it in this way, the operator splitting, which makes the structural analysis of the model more complex, could be removed. In this state-space representation, the lag functions (unit hydrographs), which are frequent in rainfall-runoff models and make the resolution of the representation difficult, are first replaced by a so-called Nash cascade and then solved with a robust numerical integration technique. To illustrate this methodology, the GR4J model is taken as an example. The substitution of the unit hydrographs with a Nash cascade, even if it modifies the model behaviour when solved using operator splitting, does not modify it when the state-space representation is solved using an implicit integration technique. Indeed, the flow time series simulated by the new representation of the model are very similar to those simulated by the classic model. The use of a robust numerical technique that approximates a continuous-time model also improves the lag parameter consistency across time steps and provides a more time-consistent model with time-independent parameters.

Washington State Community Colleges: Impact on the Economy of the State.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Sally; And Others

Using a Virginia study as a model, this study assessed the effect on Washington state's economy of its 27 campus community college system. The study was based on a simple circular cash-flow model for the years 1969-1976 and measured economic impact in three areas: on the level of business volume done in-state, on employment, and on total state…

Inter-model Diversity of ENSO simulation and its relation to basic states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kug, J. S.; Ham, Y. G.

2016-12-01

In this study, a new methodology is developed to improve the climate simulation of state-of-the-art coupledglobal climate models (GCMs), by a postprocessing based on the intermodel diversity. Based on the closeconnection between the interannual variability and climatological states, the distinctive relation between theintermodel diversity of the interannual variability and that of the basic state is found. Based on this relation,the simulated interannual variabilities can be improved, by correcting their climatological bias. To test thismethodology, the dominant intermodel difference in precipitation responses during El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) is investigated, and its relationship with climatological state. It is found that the dominantintermodel diversity of the ENSO precipitation in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) is associated with the zonal shift of the positive precipitation center during El Niño. This dominantintermodel difference is significantly correlated with the basic states. The models with wetter (dryer) climatologythan the climatology of the multimodel ensemble (MME) over the central Pacific tend to shift positiveENSO precipitation anomalies to the east (west). Based on the model's systematic errors in atmosphericENSO response and bias, the models with better climatological state tend to simulate more realistic atmosphericENSO responses.Therefore, the statistical method to correct the ENSO response mostly improves the ENSO response. Afterthe statistical correction, simulating quality of theMMEENSO precipitation is distinctively improved. Theseresults provide a possibility that the present methodology can be also applied to improving climate projectionand seasonal climate prediction.

General three-state model with biased population replacement: Analytical solution and application to language dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colaiori, Francesca; Castellano, Claudio; Cuskley, Christine F.; Loreto, Vittorio; Pugliese, Martina; Tria, Francesca

2015-01-01

Empirical evidence shows that the rate of irregular usage of English verbs exhibits discontinuity as a function of their frequency: the most frequent verbs tend to be totally irregular. We aim to qualitatively understand the origin of this feature by studying simple agent-based models of language dynamics, where each agent adopts an inflectional state for a verb and may change it upon interaction with other agents. At the same time, agents are replaced at some rate by new agents adopting the regular form. In models with only two inflectional states (regular and irregular), we observe that either all verbs regularize irrespective of their frequency, or a continuous transition occurs between a low-frequency state, where the lemma becomes fully regular, and a high-frequency one, where both forms coexist. Introducing a third (mixed) state, wherein agents may use either form, we find that a third, qualitatively different behavior may emerge, namely, a discontinuous transition in frequency. We introduce and solve analytically a very general class of three-state models that allows us to fully understand these behaviors in a unified framework. Realistic sets of interaction rules, including the well-known naming game (NG) model, result in a discontinuous transition, in agreement with recent empirical findings. We also point out that the distinction between speaker and hearer in the interaction has no effect on the collective behavior. The results for the general three-state model, although discussed in terms of language dynamics, are widely applicable.

Single neuron modeling and data assimilation in BNST neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farsian, Reza

Neurons, although tiny in size, are vastly complicated systems, which are responsible for the most basic yet essential functions of any nervous system. Even the most simple models of single neurons are usually high dimensional, nonlinear, and contain many parameters and states which are unobservable in a typical neurophysiological experiment. One of the most fundamental problems in experimental neurophysiology is the estimation of these parameters and states, since knowing their values is essential in identification, model construction, and forward prediction of biological neurons. Common methods of parameter and state estimation do not perform well for neural models due to their high dimensionality and nonlinearity. In this dissertation, two alternative approaches for parameters and state estimation of biological neurons have been demonstrated: dynamical parameter estimation (DPE) and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The first method uses elements of chaos control and synchronization theory for parameter and state estimation. MCMC is a statistical approach which uses a path integral formulation to evaluate a mean and an error bound for these unobserved parameters and states. These methods have been applied to biological system of neurons in Bed Nucleus of Stria Termialis neurons (BNST) of rats. State and parameters of neurons in both systems were estimated, and their value were used for recreating a realistic model and predicting the behavior of the neurons successfully. The knowledge of biological parameters can ultimately provide a better understanding of the internal dynamics of a neuron in order to build robust models of neuron networks.

Valence-bond theory of linear Hubbard and Pariser-Parr-Pople models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soos, Z. G.; Ramasesha, S.

1984-05-01

The ground and low-lying states of finite quantum-cell models with one state per site are obtained exactly through a real-space basis of valence-bond (VB) diagrams that explicitly conserve the total spin. Regular and alternating Hubbard and Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) chains and rings with Ne electrons on N(<=12) sites are extrapolated to infinite arrays. The ground-state energy and optical gap of regular U=4|t| Hubbard chains agree with exact results, suggesting comparable accuracy for alternating Hubbard and PPP models, but differ from mean-field results. Molecular PPP parameters describe well the excitations of finite polyenes, odd polyene ions, linear cyanine dyes, and slightly overestimate the absorption peaks in polyacetylene (CH)x. Molecular correlations contrast sharply with uncorrelated descriptions of topological solitons, which are modeled by regular polyene radicals and their ions for both wide and narrow alternation crossovers. Neutral solitons have no midgap absorption and negative spin densities, while the intensity of the in-gap excitation of charged solitons is not enhanced. The properties of correlated states in quantum-cell models with one valence state per site are discussed in the adiabatic limit for excited-state geometries and instabilities to dimerization.

Inferring pathological states in cortical neuron microcircuits.

PubMed

Rydzewski, Jakub; Nowak, Wieslaw; Nicosia, Giuseppe

2015-12-07

The brain activity is to a large extent determined by states of neural cortex microcircuits. Unfortunately, accuracy of results from neural circuits׳ mathematical models is often biased by the presence of uncertainties in underlying experimental data. Moreover, due to problems with uncertainties identification in a multidimensional parameters space, it is almost impossible to classify states of the neural cortex, which correspond to a particular set of the parameters. Here, we develop a complete methodology for determining uncertainties and the novel protocol for classifying all states in any neuroinformatic model. Further, we test this protocol on the mathematical, nonlinear model of such a microcircuit developed by Giugliano et al. (2008) and applied in the experimental data analysis of Huntington׳s disease. Up to now, the link between parameter domains in the mathematical model of Huntington׳s disease and the pathological states in cortical microcircuits has remained unclear. In this paper we precisely identify all the uncertainties, the most crucial input parameters and domains that drive the system into an unhealthy state. The scheme proposed here is general and can be easily applied to other mathematical models of biological phenomena. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling Long Term Disability following Injury: Comparison of Three Approaches for Handling Multiple Injuries

PubMed Central

Gabbe, Belinda J.; Harrison, James E.; Lyons, Ronan A.; Jolley, Damien

2011-01-01

Background Injury is a leading cause of the global burden of disease (GBD). Estimates of non-fatal injury burden have been limited by a paucity of empirical outcomes data. This study aimed to (i) establish the 12-month disability associated with each GBD 2010 injury health state, and (ii) compare approaches to modelling the impact of multiple injury health states on disability as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale – Extended (GOS-E). Methods 12-month functional outcomes for 11,337 survivors to hospital discharge were drawn from the Victorian State Trauma Registry and the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. ICD-10 diagnosis codes were mapped to the GBD 2010 injury health states. Cases with a GOS-E score >6 were defined as “recovered.” A split dataset approach was used. Cases were randomly assigned to development or test datasets. Probability of recovery for each health state was calculated using the development dataset. Three logistic regression models were evaluated: a) additive, multivariable; b) “worst injury;” and c) multiplicative. Models were adjusted for age and comorbidity and investigated for discrimination and calibration. Findings A single injury health state was recorded for 46% of cases (1–16 health states per case). The additive (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.71) and “worst injury” (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) models demonstrated higher discrimination than the multiplicative (C-statistic 0.68; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.70) model. The additive and “worst injury” models demonstrated acceptable calibration. Conclusions The majority of patients survived with persisting disability at 12-months, highlighting the importance of improving estimates of non-fatal injury burden. Additive and “worst” injury models performed similarly. GBD 2010 injury states were moderately predictive of recovery 1-year post-injury. Further evaluation using additional measures of health status and functioning and comparison with the GBD 2010 disability weights will be needed to optimise injury states for future GBD studies. PMID:21984951

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

2000-01-01

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified Coulomb failure model in which the failure stress threshold is lowered due to weakening, increasing the clock advance. The deviation from a non-Coulomb response also depends on the loading rate, elastic stiffness, initial conditions, and assumptions about how state evolves.

A continuum model of transcriptional bursting

PubMed Central

Corrigan, Adam M; Tunnacliffe, Edward; Cannon, Danielle; Chubb, Jonathan R

2016-01-01

Transcription occurs in stochastic bursts. Early models based upon RNA hybridisation studies suggest bursting dynamics arise from alternating inactive and permissive states. Here we investigate bursting mechanism in live cells by quantitative imaging of actin gene transcription, combined with molecular genetics, stochastic simulation and probabilistic modelling. In contrast to early models, our data indicate a continuum of transcriptional states, with a slowly fluctuating initiation rate converting the gene between different levels of activity, interspersed with extended periods of inactivity. We place an upper limit of 40 s on the lifetime of fluctuations in elongation rate, with initiation rate variations persisting an order of magnitude longer. TATA mutations reduce the accessibility of high activity states, leaving the lifetime of on- and off-states unchanged. A continuum or spectrum of gene states potentially enables a wide dynamic range for cell responses to stimuli. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13051.001 PMID:26896676

Modeling solid-state transformations occurring in dissolution testing.

PubMed

Laaksonen, Timo; Aaltonen, Jaakko

2013-04-15

Changes in the solid-state form can occur during dissolution testing of drugs. This can often complicate interpretation of results. Additionally, there can be several mechanisms through which such a change proceeds, e.g. solvent-mediated transformation or crystal growth within the drug material itself. Here, a mathematical model was constructed to study the dissolution testing of a material, which undergoes such changes. The model consisted of two processes: the recrystallization of the drug from a supersaturated liquid state caused by the dissolution of the more soluble solid form and the crystal growth of the stable solid form at the surface of the drug formulation. Comparison to experimental data on theophylline dissolution showed that the results obtained with the model matched real solid-state changes and that it was able to distinguish between cases where the transformation was controlled either by solvent-mediated crystallization or solid-state crystal growth. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of energy consumption and emissions on the trip cost without late arrival at the equilibrium state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Wang, Tao; Chen, Liang; Shang, Hua-Yan

2017-08-01

In this paper, we apply a car-following model, fuel consumption model, emission model and electricity consumption model to explore the influences of energy consumption and emissions on each commuter's trip costs without late arrival at the equilibrium state. The numerical results show that the energy consumption and emissions have significant impacts on each commuter's trip cost without late arrival at the equilibrium state. The fuel cost and emission cost prominently enhance each commuter's trip cost and the trip cost increases with the number of vehicles, which shows that considering the fuel cost and emission cost in the trip cost will destroy the equilibrium state. However, the electricity cost slightly enhances each commuter's trip cost, but the trip cost is still approximately a constant, which indicates that considering the electricity cost in the trip cost does not destroy the equilibrium state.

Complete protein-protein association kinetics in atomic detail revealed by molecular dynamics simulations and Markov modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plattner, Nuria; Doerr, Stefan; de Fabritiis, Gianni; Noé, Frank

2017-10-01

Protein-protein association is fundamental to many life processes. However, a microscopic model describing the structures and kinetics during association and dissociation is lacking on account of the long lifetimes of associated states, which have prevented efficient sampling by direct molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Here we demonstrate protein-protein association and dissociation in atomistic resolution for the ribonuclease barnase and its inhibitor barstar by combining adaptive high-throughput MD simulations and hidden Markov modelling. The model reveals experimentally consistent intermediate structures, energetics and kinetics on timescales from microseconds to hours. A variety of flexibly attached intermediates and misbound states funnel down to a transition state and a native basin consisting of the loosely bound near-native state and the tightly bound crystallographic state. These results offer a deeper level of insight into macromolecular recognition and our approach opens the door for understanding and manipulating a wide range of macromolecular association processes.

Fuzzy State Transition and Kalman Filter Applied in Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting

PubMed Central

Ming-jun, Deng; Shi-ru, Qu

2015-01-01

Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting but is deficient in the expression of time hysteretically. This paper proposed an approach that combining fuzzy state transform and KF forecasting model. In considering the advantage of the two models, a weight combination model is proposed. The minimum of the sum forecasting error squared is regarded as a goal in optimizing the combined weight dynamically. Real detection data are used to test the efficiency. Results indicate that the method has a good performance in terms of short-term traffic forecasting. PMID:26779258

X(1835), X(2120), and X(2370) in flux tube models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Chengrong; Ping, Jialun; Yang, Youchang; Wang, Fan

2012-07-01

Nonstrange hexaquark state q3q¯3 spectrum is systematically studied by using the Gaussian expansion method in flux tube models with a six-body confinement potential. All the model parameters are fixed by baryon properties, so the calculation of hexaquark state q3q¯3 is parameter-free. It is found that some ground states of q3q¯3 are stable against disintegrating into a baryon and an anti-baryon. The main components of X(1835) and X(2370), which are observed in the radiative decay of J/ψ by BES collaboration, can be described as compact hexaquark states N8N¯8 and Δ8Δ¯8 with quantum numbers IGJPC=0+0-+, respectively. These bound states should be color confinement resonances with three-dimensional configurations similar to a rugby ball, however, X(2120) can not be accommodated in this model approach.

Fuzzy State Transition and Kalman Filter Applied in Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting.

PubMed

Deng, Ming-jun; Qu, Shi-ru

2015-01-01

Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting but is deficient in the expression of time hysteretically. This paper proposed an approach that combining fuzzy state transform and KF forecasting model. In considering the advantage of the two models, a weight combination model is proposed. The minimum of the sum forecasting error squared is regarded as a goal in optimizing the combined weight dynamically. Real detection data are used to test the efficiency. Results indicate that the method has a good performance in terms of short-term traffic forecasting.

A model-guided symbolic execution approach for network protocol implementations and vulnerability detection.

PubMed

Wen, Shameng; Meng, Qingkun; Feng, Chao; Tang, Chaojing

2017-01-01

Formal techniques have been devoted to analyzing whether network protocol specifications violate security policies; however, these methods cannot detect vulnerabilities in the implementations of the network protocols themselves. Symbolic execution can be used to analyze the paths of the network protocol implementations, but for stateful network protocols, it is difficult to reach the deep states of the protocol. This paper proposes a novel model-guided approach to detect vulnerabilities in network protocol implementations. Our method first abstracts a finite state machine (FSM) model, then utilizes the model to guide the symbolic execution. This approach achieves high coverage of both the code and the protocol states. The proposed method is implemented and applied to test numerous real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method is more effective than traditional fuzzing methods such as SPIKE at detecting vulnerabilities in the deep states of network protocol implementations.

Levitation of current carrying states in the lattice model for the integer quantum Hall effect.

PubMed

Koschny, T; Potempa, H; Schweitzer, L

2001-04-23

The disorder driven quantum Hall to insulator transition is investigated for a two-dimensional lattice model. The Hall conductivity and the localization length are calculated numerically near the transition. For uncorrelated and weakly correlated disorder potentials the current carrying states are annihilated by the negative Chern states originating from the band center. In the presence of correlated disorder potentials with correlation length larger than approximately half the lattice constant the floating up of the critical states in energy without merging is observed. This behavior is similar to the levitation scenario proposed for the continuum model.

Analysis of ground state in random bipartite matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Gui-Yuan; Kong, Yi-Xiu; Liao, Hao; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2016-02-01

Bipartite matching problems emerge in many human social phenomena. In this paper, we study the ground state of the Gale-Shapley model, which is the most popular bipartite matching model. We apply the Kuhn-Munkres algorithm to compute the numerical ground state of the model. For the first time, we obtain the number of blocking pairs which is a measure of the system instability. We also show that the number of blocking pairs formed by each person follows a geometric distribution. Furthermore, we study how the connectivity in the bipartite matching problems influences the instability of the ground state.

Effect of density of states peculiarities on Hund's metal behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belozerov, A. S.; Katanin, A. A.; Anisimov, V. I.

2018-03-01

We investigate a possibility of Hund's metal behavior in the Hubbard model with asymmetric density of states having peak(s). Specifically, we consider the degenerate two-band model and compare its results to the five-band model with realistic density of states of iron and nickel, showing that the obtained results are more general, provided that the hybridization between states of different symmetry is sufficiently small. We find that quasiparticle damping and the formation of local magnetic moments due to Hund's exchange interaction are enhanced by both the density of states asymmetry, which yields stronger correlated electron or hole excitations, and the larger density of states at the Fermi level, increasing the number of virtual electron-hole excitations. For realistic densities of states, these two factors are often interrelated because the Fermi level is attracted towards peaks of the density of states. We discuss the implication of the obtained results to various substances and compounds, such as transition metals, iron pnictides, and cuprates.

Symmetry-breaking dynamics of the finite-size Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick model near ground state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yi; Li, Tongcang; Yin, Zhang-qi

2018-01-01

We study the dynamics of the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick (LMG) model with a finite number of spins. In the thermodynamic limit, the ground state of the LMG model with an isotropic Hamiltonian in the broken phase breaks to a mean-field ground state with a certain direction. However, when the spin number N is finite, the exact ground state is always unique and is not given by a classical mean-field ground state. Here, we prove that when N is large but finite, through a tiny external perturbation, a localized state which is close to a mean-field ground state can be prepared, which mimics spontaneous symmetry breaking. Also, we find the localized in-plane spin polarization oscillates with two different frequencies ˜O (1 /N ) , and the lifetime of the localized state is long enough to exhibit this oscillation. We numerically test the analytical results and find that they agree very well with each other. Finally, we link the phenomena to quantum time crystals and time quasicrystals.

What is an integrable quench?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piroli, Lorenzo; Pozsgay, Balázs; Vernier, Eric

2017-12-01

Inspired by classical results in integrable boundary quantum field theory, we propose a definition of integrable initial states for quantum quenches in lattice models. They are defined as the states which are annihilated by all local conserved charges that are odd under space reflection. We show that this class includes the states which can be related to integrable boundary conditions in an appropriate rotated channel, in loose analogy with the picture in quantum field theory. Furthermore, we provide an efficient method to test integrability of given initial states. We revisit the recent literature of global quenches in several models and show that, in all of the cases where closed-form analytical results could be obtained, the initial state is integrable according to our definition. In the prototypical example of the XXZ spin-s chains we show that integrable states include two-site product states but also larger families of matrix product states with arbitrary bond dimension. We argue that our results could be practically useful for the study of quantum quenches in generic integrable models.

Phase transitions and adiabatic preparation of a fractional Chern insulator in a boson cold-atom model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motruk, Johannes; Pollmann, Frank

2017-10-01

We investigate the fate of hardcore bosons in a Harper-Hofstadter model which was experimentally realized by Aidelsburger et al. [Nat. Phys. 11, 162 (2015), 10.1038/nphys3171] at half-filling of the lowest band. We discuss the stability of an emergent fractional Chern insulator (FCI) state in a finite region of the phase diagram that is separated from a superfluid state by a first-order transition when tuning the band topology following the protocol used in the experiment. Since crossing a first-order transition is unfavorable for adiabatically preparing the FCI state, we extend the model to stabilize a featureless insulating state. The transition between this phase and the topological state proves to be continuous, providing a path in parameter space along which an FCI state could be adiabatically prepared. To further corroborate this statement, we perform time-dependent DMRG calculations which demonstrate that the FCI state may indeed be reached by adiabatically tuning a simple product state.

State transition storyboards: A tool for designing the Goldstone solar system radar data acquisition system user interface software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, S. D.

1987-01-01

Effective user interface design in software systems is a complex task that takes place without adequate modeling tools. By combining state transition diagrams and the storyboard technique of filmmakers, State Transition Storyboards were developed to provide a detailed modeling technique for the Goldstone Solar System Radar Data Acquisition System human-machine interface. Illustrations are included with a description of the modeling technique.

State estimation improves prospects for ocean research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stammer, Detlef; Wunsch, C.; Fukumori, I.; Marshall, J.

Rigorous global ocean state estimation methods can now be used to produce dynamically consistent time-varying model/data syntheses, the results of which are being used to study a variety of important scientific problems. Figure 1 shows a schematic of a complete ocean observing and synthesis system that includes global observations and state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models (OGCM) run on modern computer platforms. A global observing system is described in detail in Smith and Koblinsky [2001],and the present status of ocean modeling and anticipated improvements are addressed by Griffies et al. [2001]. Here, the focus is on the third component of state estimation: the synthesis of the observations and a model into a unified, dynamically consistent estimate.

Efficient Approaches for Propagating Hydrologic Forcing Uncertainty: High-Resolution Applications Over the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, J.; Turmon, M.; David, C. H.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.

2017-12-01

NASA's Western States Water Mission (WSWM) combines remote sensing of the terrestrial water cycle with hydrological models to provide high-resolution state estimates for multiple variables. The effort includes both land surface and river routing models that are subject to several sources of uncertainty, including errors in the model forcing and model structural uncertainty. Computational and storage constraints prohibit extensive ensemble simulations, so this work outlines efficient but flexible approaches for estimating and reporting uncertainty. Calibrated by remote sensing and in situ data where available, we illustrate the application of these techniques in producing state estimates with associated uncertainties at kilometer-scale resolution for key variables such as soil moisture, groundwater, and streamflow.

Measurement of the Equation of State of the Two-Dimensional Hubbard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Luke; Cocchi, Eugenio; Drewes, Jan; Koschorreck, Marco; Pertot, Daniel; Brennecke, Ferdinand; Koehl, Michael

2016-05-01

The subtle interplay between kinetic energy, interactions and dimensionality challenges our comprehension of strongly-correlated physics observed, for example, in the solid state. In this quest, the Hubbard model has emerged as a conceptually simple, yet rich model describing such physics. Here we present an experimental determination of the equation of state of the repulsive two-dimensional Hubbard model over a broad range of interactions, 0 <= U / t <= 20 , and temperatures, down to kB T / t = 0 . 63(2) using high-resolution imaging of ultracold fermionic atoms in optical lattices. We show density profiles, compressibilities and double occupancies over the whole doping range, and hence our results constitute benchmarks for state-of-the-art theoretical approaches.

Microscopic particle-rotor model for the low-lying spectrum of Λ hypernuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, H.; Hagino, K.; Yao, J. M.; Motoba, T.

2014-12-01

We propose a novel method for low-lying states of hypernuclei based on the particle-rotor model, in which hypernuclear states are constructed by coupling the hyperon to low-lying states of the core nucleus. In contrast to the conventional particle-rotor model, we employ a microscopic approach for the core states; that is, the generator coordinate method (GCM) with the particle number and angular momentum projections. We apply this microscopic particle-rotor model to Λ9Be as an example employing a point-coupling version of the relativistic mean-field Lagrangian. A reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the low-spin spectrum is achieved using the Λ N coupling strengths determined to reproduce the binding energy of the Λ particle.

Exotic superconducting states in the extended attractive Hubbard model.

PubMed

Nayak, Swagatam; Kumar, Sanjeev

2018-04-04

We show that the extended attractive Hubbard model on a square lattice allows for a variety of superconducting phases, including exotic mixed-symmetry phases with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] symmetries, and a novel [Formula: see text] state. The calculations are performed within the Hartree-Fock Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer framework. The ground states of the mean-field Hamiltonian are obtained via a minimization scheme that relaxes the symmetry constraints on the superconducting solutions, hence allowing for a mixing of s-, p- and d-wave order parameters. The results are obtained within the assumption of uniform-density states. Our results show that extended attractive Hubbard model can serve as an effective model for investigating properties of exotic superconductors.

Exotic superconducting states in the extended attractive Hubbard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nayak, Swagatam; Kumar, Sanjeev

2018-04-01

We show that the extended attractive Hubbard model on a square lattice allows for a variety of superconducting phases, including exotic mixed-symmetry phases with dx^2-y^2 + i [s + s^*] and dx^2-y^2 + px symmetries, and a novel px + i py state. The calculations are performed within the Hartree-Fock Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer framework. The ground states of the mean-field Hamiltonian are obtained via a minimization scheme that relaxes the symmetry constraints on the superconducting solutions, hence allowing for a mixing of s-, p- and d-wave order parameters. The results are obtained within the assumption of uniform-density states. Our results show that extended attractive Hubbard model can serve as an effective model for investigating properties of exotic superconductors.

Revisiting Vertical Models To Simulate the Line Shape of Electronic Spectra Adopting Cartesian and Internal Coordinates.

PubMed

Cerezo, Javier; Santoro, Fabrizio

2016-10-11

Vertical models for the simulation of spectroscopic line shapes expand the potential energy surface (PES) of the final state around the equilibrium geometry of the initial state. These models provide, in principle, a better approximation of the region of the band maximum. At variance, adiabatic models expand each PES around its own minimum. In the harmonic approximation, when the minimum energy structures of the two electronic states are connected by large structural displacements, adiabatic models can breakdown and are outperformed by vertical models. However, the practical application of vertical models faces the issues related to the necessity to perform a frequency analysis at a nonstationary point. In this contribution we revisit vertical models in harmonic approximation adopting both Cartesian (x) and valence internal curvilinear coordinates (s). We show that when x coordinates are used, the vibrational analysis at nonstationary points leads to a deficient description of low-frequency modes, for which spurious imaginary frequencies may even appear. This issue is solved when s coordinates are adopted. It is however necessary to account for the second derivative of s with respect to x, which here we compute analytically. We compare the performance of the vertical model in the s-frame with respect to adiabatic models and previously proposed vertical models in x- or Q 1 -frame, where Q 1 are the normal coordinates of the initial state computed as combination of Cartesian coordinates. We show that for rigid molecules the vertical approach in the s-frame provides a description of the final state very close to the adiabatic picture. For sizable displacements it is a solid alternative to adiabatic models, and it is not affected by the issues of vertical models in x- and Q 1 -frames, which mainly arise when temperature effects are included. In principle the G matrix depends on s, and this creates nonorthogonality problems of the Duschinsky matrix connecting the normal modes of initial and final states in adiabatic approaches. We highlight that such a dependence of G on s is also an issue in vertical models, due to the necessity to approximate the kinetic term in the Hamiltonian when setting up the so-called GF problem. When large structural differences exist between the initial and the final-state minima, the changes in the G matrix can become too large to be disregarded.

The Diurnal Cycle of Clouds and Precipitation at the ARM SGP Site: An Atmospheric State-Based Analysis and Error Decomposition of a Multiscale Modeling Framework Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wei; Marchand, Roger; Fu, Qiang

2017-12-01

Long-term reflectivity data collected by a millimeter cloud radar at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are used to examine the diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation and are compared with the diurnal cycle simulated by a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model. The study uses a set of atmospheric states that were created specifically for the SGP and for the purpose of investigating under what synoptic conditions models compare well with observations on a statistical basis (rather than using case studies or seasonal or longer time scale averaging). Differences in the annual mean diurnal cycle between observations and the MMF are decomposed into differences due to the relative frequency of states, the daily mean vertical profile of hydrometeor occurrence, and the (normalized) diurnal variation of hydrometeors in each state. Here the hydrometeors are classified as cloud or precipitation based solely on the reflectivity observed by a millimeter radar or generated by a radar simulator. The results show that the MMF does not capture the diurnal variation of low clouds well in any of the states but does a reasonable job capturing the diurnal variations of high clouds and precipitation in some states. In particular, the diurnal variations in states that occur during summer are reasonably captured by the MMF, while the diurnal variations in states that occur during the transition seasons (spring and fall) are not well captured. Overall, the errors in the annual composite are due primarily to errors in the daily mean of hydrometeor occurrence (rather than diurnal variations), but errors in the state frequency (that is, the distribution of weather states in the model) also play a significant role.

78 FR 27883 - Approval and Promulgation of State Implementation Plans; State of Montana; Interstate Transport...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-13

... PM 2.5 NAAQS in other states. Modeling can be relied on when acceptable modeling technical analyses... on relevant data and factors. MDEQ's submission contains no technical analysis of potential... analysis relies on factors irrelevant to the 2006 PM 2.5 [[Page 27886

Coulomb displacement energies of excited states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sherr, R.; Bertsch, G.

The Bansal--French--Zamick model is quite successful in accounting for the Coulomb displacement energies of excited particle--hole states in a variety of light nuclei. Level shifts are typically reproduced to within 50 keV. However, the model fails for certain excited 0$sup +$ states, and this remains a puzzle. (AIP)

Dynamics of Affective States during Complex Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Mello, Sidney; Graesser, Art

2012-01-01

We propose a model to explain the dynamics of affective states that emerge during deep learning activities. The model predicts that learners in a state of engagement/flow will experience cognitive disequilibrium and confusion when they face contradictions, incongruities, anomalies, obstacles to goals, and other impasses. Learners revert into the…

Spatial perspectives in state-and-transition models: A missing link to land management?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Conceptual models of alternative states and thresholds are based largely on observations of ecosystem processes at a few points in space. Because the distribution of alternative states in spatially-structured ecosystems is the result of variations in pattern-process interactions at different scales,...

Dynamics of Multistable States during Ongoing and Evoked Cortical Activity

PubMed Central

Mazzucato, Luca

2015-01-01

Single-trial analyses of ensemble activity in alert animals demonstrate that cortical circuits dynamics evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Metastability has been studied for its potential role in sensory coding, memory, and decision-making. Yet, very little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for its genesis. It is often assumed that the onset of state sequences is triggered by an external stimulus. Here we show that state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation. Analysis of multielectrode recordings from the gustatory cortex of alert rats revealed ongoing sequences of states, where single neurons spontaneously attain several firing rates across different states. This single-neuron multistability represents a challenge to existing spiking network models, where typically each neuron is at most bistable. We present a recurrent spiking network model that accounts for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the multistability in single-neuron firing rates. Each state results from the activation of neural clusters with potentiated intracluster connections, with the firing rate in each cluster depending on the number of active clusters. Simulations show that the model's ensemble activity hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. When probed with external stimuli, the model predicts the quenching of single-neuron multistability into bistability and the reduction of trial-by-trial variability. Both predictions were confirmed in the data. Together, these results provide a theoretical framework that captures both ongoing and evoked network dynamics in a single mechanistic model. PMID:26019337

Multi-state succession in wetlands: a novel use of state and transition models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zweig, Christa L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2009-01-01

The complexity of ecosystems and mechanisms of succession are often simplified by linear and mathematical models used to understand and predict system behavior. Such models often do not incorporate multivariate, nonlinear feedbacks in pattern and process that include multiple scales of organization inherent within real-world systems. Wetlands are ecosystems with unique, nonlinear patterns of succession due to the regular, but often inconstant, presence of water on the landscape. We develop a general, nonspatial state and transition (S and T) succession conceptual model for wetlands and apply the general framework by creating annotated succession/management models and hypotheses for use in impact analysis on a portion of an imperiled wetland. The S and T models for our study area, Water Conservation Area 3A South (WCA3), Florida, USA, included hydrologic and peat depth values from multivariate analyses and classification and regression trees. We used the freeware Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool as an exploratory application to evaluate our S and T models with different management actions (equal chance [a control condition], deeper conditions, dry conditions, and increased hydrologic range) for three communities: slough, sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), and wet prairie. Deeper conditions and increased hydrologic range behaved similarly, with the transition of community states to deeper states, particularly for sawgrass and slough. Hydrology is the primary mechanism for multi-state transitions within our study period, and we show both an immediate and lagged effect on vegetation, depending on community state. We consider these S and T succession models as a fraction of the framework for the Everglades. They are hypotheses for use in adaptive management, represent the community response to hydrology, and illustrate which aspects of hydrologic variability are important to community structure. We intend for these models to act as a foundation for further restoration management and experimentation which will refine transition and threshold concepts. 

Modeling to Evaluate Contribution of Oil and Gas Emissions to Air Pollution.

PubMed

Thompson, Tammy M; Shepherd, Donald; Stacy, Andrea; Barna, Michael G; Schichtel, Bret A

2017-04-01

Oil and gas production in the Western United States has increased considerably over the past 10 years. While many of the still limited oil and gas impact assessments have focused on potential human health impacts, the typically remote locations of production in the Intermountain West suggests that the impacts of oil and gas production on national parks and wilderness areas (Class I and II areas) could also be important. To evaluate this, we utilize the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) with a year-long modeling episode representing the best available representation of 2011 meteorology and emissions for the Western United States. The model inputs for the 2011 episodes were generated as part of the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). The study includes a detailed assessment of oil and gas (O&G) emissions in Western States. The year-long modeling episode was run both with and without emissions from O&G production. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the contribution of the O&G production to air quality. These data were used to assess the contribution of O&G to the 8 hour average ozone concentrations, daily and annual fine particulate concentrations, annual nitrogen deposition totals and visibility in the modeling domain. We present the results for the Class I and II areas in the Western United States. Modeling results suggest that emissions from O&G activity are having a negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in our National Parks and Class I areas. In this research, we use a modeling framework developed for oil and gas evaluation in the western United States to determine the modeled impacts of emissions associated with oil and gas production on air pollution metrics. We show that oil and gas production may have a significant negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in some national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States. Our findings are of particular interest to federal land managers as well as regulators in states heavy in oil and gas production as they consider control strategies to reduce the impact of development.

A New Strategy in Observer Modeling for Greenhouse Cucumber Seedling Growth

PubMed Central

Qiu, Quan; Zheng, Chenfei; Wang, Wenping; Qiao, Xiaojun; Bai, He; Yu, Jingquan; Shi, Kai

2017-01-01

State observer is an essential component in computerized control loops for greenhouse-crop systems. However, the current accomplishments of observer modeling for greenhouse-crop systems mainly focus on mass/energy balance, ignoring physiological responses of crops. As a result, state observers for crop physiological responses are rarely developed, and control operations are typically made based on experience rather than actual crop requirements. In addition, existing observer models require a large number of parameters, leading to heavy computational load and poor application feasibility. To address these problems, we present a new state observer modeling strategy that takes both environmental information and crop physiological responses into consideration during the observer modeling process. Using greenhouse cucumber seedlings as an instance, we sample 10 physiological parameters of cucumber seedlings at different time point during the exponential growth stage, and employ them to build growth state observers together with 8 environmental parameters. Support vector machine (SVM) acts as the mathematical tool for observer modeling. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to select the dominant environmental and physiological parameters in the modeling process. With the dominant parameters, simplified observer models are built and tested. We conduct contrast experiments with different input parameter combinations on simplified and un-simplified observers. Experimental results indicate that physiological information can improve the prediction accuracies of the growth state observers. Furthermore, the simplified observer models can give equivalent or even better performance than the un-simplified ones, which verifies the feasibility of CCA. The current study can enable state observers to reflect crop requirements and make them feasible for applications with simplified shapes, which is significant for developing intelligent greenhouse control systems for modern greenhouse production. PMID:28848565

A New Strategy in Observer Modeling for Greenhouse Cucumber Seedling Growth.

PubMed

Qiu, Quan; Zheng, Chenfei; Wang, Wenping; Qiao, Xiaojun; Bai, He; Yu, Jingquan; Shi, Kai

2017-01-01

State observer is an essential component in computerized control loops for greenhouse-crop systems. However, the current accomplishments of observer modeling for greenhouse-crop systems mainly focus on mass/energy balance, ignoring physiological responses of crops. As a result, state observers for crop physiological responses are rarely developed, and control operations are typically made based on experience rather than actual crop requirements. In addition, existing observer models require a large number of parameters, leading to heavy computational load and poor application feasibility. To address these problems, we present a new state observer modeling strategy that takes both environmental information and crop physiological responses into consideration during the observer modeling process. Using greenhouse cucumber seedlings as an instance, we sample 10 physiological parameters of cucumber seedlings at different time point during the exponential growth stage, and employ them to build growth state observers together with 8 environmental parameters. Support vector machine (SVM) acts as the mathematical tool for observer modeling. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to select the dominant environmental and physiological parameters in the modeling process. With the dominant parameters, simplified observer models are built and tested. We conduct contrast experiments with different input parameter combinations on simplified and un-simplified observers. Experimental results indicate that physiological information can improve the prediction accuracies of the growth state observers. Furthermore, the simplified observer models can give equivalent or even better performance than the un-simplified ones, which verifies the feasibility of CCA. The current study can enable state observers to reflect crop requirements and make them feasible for applications with simplified shapes, which is significant for developing intelligent greenhouse control systems for modern greenhouse production.

Addressing Dynamic Issues of Program Model Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerda, Flavio; Visser, Willem

2001-01-01

Model checking real programs has recently become an active research area. Programs however exhibit two characteristics that make model checking difficult: the complexity of their state and the dynamic nature of many programs. Here we address both these issues within the context of the Java PathFinder (JPF) model checker. Firstly, we will show how the state of a Java program can be encoded efficiently and how this encoding can be exploited to improve model checking. Next we show how to use symmetry reductions to alleviate some of the problems introduced by the dynamic nature of Java programs. Lastly, we show how distributed model checking of a dynamic program can be achieved, and furthermore, how dynamic partitions of the state space can improve model checking. We support all our findings with results from applying these techniques within the JPF model checker.

A hybrid model for traffic flow and crowd dynamics with random individual properties.

PubMed

Schleper, Veronika

2015-04-01

Based on an established mathematical model for the behavior of large crowds, a new model is derived that is able to take into account the statistical variation of individual maximum walking speeds. The same model is shown to be valid also in traffic flow situations, where for instance the statistical variation of preferred maximum speeds can be considered. The model involves explicit bounds on the state variables, such that a special Riemann solver is derived that is proved to respect the state constraints. Some care is devoted to a valid construction of random initial data, necessary for the use of the new model. The article also includes a numerical method that is shown to respect the bounds on the state variables and illustrative numerical examples, explaining the properties of the new model in comparison with established models.

Observational constraints on cosmological models with Chaplygin gas and quadratic equation of state

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharov, G.S., E-mail: german.sharov@mail.ru

Observational manifestations of accelerated expansion of the universe, in particular, recent data for Type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, for the Hubble parameter H ( z ) and cosmic microwave background constraints are described with different cosmological models. We compare the ΛCDM, the models with generalized and modified Chaplygin gas and the model with quadratic equation of state. For these models we estimate optimal model parameters and their permissible errors with different approaches to calculation of sound horizon scale r {sub s} ( z {sub d} ). Among the considered models the best value of χ{sup 2} is achieved formore » the model with quadratic equation of state, but it has 2 additional parameters in comparison with the ΛCDM and therefore is not favored by the Akaike information criterion.« less

A hidden markov model derived structural alphabet for proteins.

PubMed

Camproux, A C; Gautier, R; Tufféry, P

2004-06-04

Understanding and predicting protein structures depends on the complexity and the accuracy of the models used to represent them. We have set up a hidden Markov model that discretizes protein backbone conformation as series of overlapping fragments (states) of four residues length. This approach learns simultaneously the geometry of the states and their connections. We obtain, using a statistical criterion, an optimal systematic decomposition of the conformational variability of the protein peptidic chain in 27 states with strong connection logic. This result is stable over different protein sets. Our model fits well the previous knowledge related to protein architecture organisation and seems able to grab some subtle details of protein organisation, such as helix sub-level organisation schemes. Taking into account the dependence between the states results in a description of local protein structure of low complexity. On an average, the model makes use of only 8.3 states among 27 to describe each position of a protein structure. Although we use short fragments, the learning process on entire protein conformations captures the logic of the assembly on a larger scale. Using such a model, the structure of proteins can be reconstructed with an average accuracy close to 1.1A root-mean-square deviation and for a complexity of only 3. Finally, we also observe that sequence specificity increases with the number of states of the structural alphabet. Such models can constitute a very relevant approach to the analysis of protein architecture in particular for protein structure prediction.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Quantum Computation using Arrays of N Polar Molecules in Pendular States.

PubMed

Wei, Qi; Cao, Yudong; Kais, Sabre; Friedrich, Bretislav; Herschbach, Dudley

2016-11-18

We investigate several aspects of realizing quantum computation using entangled polar molecules in pendular states. Quantum algorithms typically start from a product state |00⋯0⟩ and we show that up to a negligible error, the ground states of polar molecule arrays can be considered as the unentangled qubit basis state |00⋯0⟩ . This state can be prepared by simply allowing the system to reach thermal equilibrium at low temperature (<1 mK). We also evaluate entanglement, characterized by concurrence of pendular state qubits in dipole arrays as governed by the external electric field, dipole-dipole coupling and number N of molecules in the array. In the parameter regime that we consider for quantum computing, we find that qubit entanglement is modest, typically no greater than 10 -4 , confirming the negligible entanglement in the ground state. We discuss methods for realizing quantum computation in the gate model, measurement-based model, instantaneous quantum polynomial time circuits and the adiabatic model using polar molecules in pendular states. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

State estimation of stochastic non-linear hybrid dynamic system using an interacting multiple model algorithm.

PubMed

Elenchezhiyan, M; Prakash, J

2015-09-01

In this work, state estimation schemes for non-linear hybrid dynamic systems subjected to stochastic state disturbances and random errors in measurements using interacting multiple-model (IMM) algorithms are formulated. In order to compute both discrete modes and continuous state estimates of a hybrid dynamic system either an IMM extended Kalman filter (IMM-EKF) or an IMM based derivative-free Kalman filters is proposed in this study. The efficacy of the proposed IMM based state estimation schemes is demonstrated by conducting Monte-Carlo simulation studies on the two-tank hybrid system and switched non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor system. Extensive simulation studies reveal that the proposed IMM based state estimation schemes are able to generate fairly accurate continuous state estimates and discrete modes. In the presence and absence of sensor bias, the simulation studies reveal that the proposed IMM unscented Kalman filter (IMM-UKF) based simultaneous state and parameter estimation scheme outperforms multiple-model UKF (MM-UKF) based simultaneous state and parameter estimation scheme. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A self-cognizant dynamic system approach for prognostics and health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Guangxing; Wang, Pingfeng; Hu, Chao

2015-03-01

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline that diagnoses and predicts how and when a system will degrade its performance and lose its partial or whole functionality. Due to the complexity and invisibility of rules and states of most dynamic systems, developing an effective approach to track evolving system states becomes a major challenge. This paper presents a new self-cognizant dynamic system (SCDS) approach that incorporates artificial intelligence into dynamic system modeling for PHM. A feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is selected to approximate a complex system response which is challenging task in general due to inaccessible system physics. The trained FFNN model is then embedded into a dual extended Kalman filter algorithm to track down system dynamics. A recursive computation technique used to update the FFNN model using online measurements is also derived. To validate the proposed SCDS approach, a battery dynamic system is considered as an experimental application. After modeling the battery system by a FFNN model and a state-space model, the state-of-charge (SoC) and state-of-health (SoH) are estimated by updating the FFNN model using the proposed approach. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach improves the efficiency and accuracy for battery health management.

Evaluating the fidelity of CMIP5 models in producing large-scale meteorological patterns over the Northwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintner, B. R.; Loikith, P. C.; Pike, M.; Aragon, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change information is increasingly required at impact-relevant scales. However, most state-of-the-art climate models are not of sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve features explicitly at such scales. This challenge is particularly acute in regions of complex topography, such as the Pacific Northwest of the United States. To address this scale mismatch problem, we consider large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can be resolved by climate models and associated with the occurrence of local scale climate and climate extremes. In prior work, using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we computed LSMPs over the northwestern United States (NWUS) from daily reanalysis circulation fields and further related these to the occurrence of observed extreme temperatures and precipitation: SOMs were used to group LSMPs into 12 nodes or clusters spanning the continuum of synoptic variability over the regions. Here this observational foundation is utilized as an evaluation target for a suite of global climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Evaluation is performed in two primary ways. First, daily model circulation fields are assigned to one of the 12 reanalysis nodes based on minimization of the mean square error. From this, a bulk model skill score is computed measuring the similarity between the model and reanalysis nodes. Next, SOMs are applied directly to the model output and compared to the nodes obtained from reanalysis. Results reveal that many of the models have LSMPs analogous to the reanalysis, suggesting that the models reasonably capture observed daily synoptic states.

On the assimilation of absolute geodetic dynamic topography in a global ocean model: impact on the deep ocean state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Androsov, Alexey; Nerger, Lars; Schnur, Reiner; Schröter, Jens; Albertella, Alberta; Rummel, Reiner; Savcenko, Roman; Bosch, Wolfgang; Skachko, Sergey; Danilov, Sergey

2018-05-01

General ocean circulation models are not perfect. Forced with observed atmospheric fluxes they gradually drift away from measured distributions of temperature and salinity. We suggest data assimilation of absolute dynamical ocean topography (DOT) observed from space geodetic missions as an option to reduce these differences. Sea surface information of DOT is transferred into the deep ocean by defining the analysed ocean state as a weighted average of an ensemble of fully consistent model solutions using an error-subspace ensemble Kalman filter technique. Success of the technique is demonstrated by assimilation into a global configuration of the ocean circulation model FESOM over 1 year. The dynamic ocean topography data are obtained from a combination of multi-satellite altimetry and geoid measurements. The assimilation result is assessed using independent temperature and salinity analysis derived from profiling buoys of the AGRO float data set. The largest impact of the assimilation occurs at the first few analysis steps where both the model ocean topography and the steric height (i.e. temperature and salinity) are improved. The continued data assimilation over 1 year further improves the model state gradually. Deep ocean fields quickly adjust in a sustained manner: A model forecast initialized from the model state estimated by the data assimilation after only 1 month shows that improvements induced by the data assimilation remain in the model state for a long time. Even after 11 months, the modelled ocean topography and temperature fields show smaller errors than the model forecast without any data assimilation.

Investigating students’ mental models about the nature of light in different contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özcan, Özgür

2015-11-01

In this study, we investigated pre-service physics teachers’ mental models of light in different contexts, such as blackbody radiation, the photoelectric effect and the Compton effect. The data collected through the paper-and-pencil questionnaire (PPQ) were analyzed both quantitatively and qualitatively. Sampling of this study consists of a total of 110 physics education students who were taking a modern physics course at two different state universities in Turkey. As a result, three mental models, which were called the beam ray model (BrM), hybrid model (HM) and particle model (PM), were being used by the students while explaining these phenomena. The most model fluctuation was seen in HM and BrM. In addition, some students were in a mixed-model state where they use multiple mental models in explaining a phenomenon and used these models inconsistently. On the other hand, most of the students who used the particle model can be said to be in a pure model state.

A Model of Solid State Gas Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woestman, J. T.; Brailsford, A. D.; Shane, M.; Logothetis, E. M.

1997-03-01

Solid state gas sensors are widely used to measure the concentrations of gases such as CO, CH_4, C_3H_6, H_2, C_3H8 and O2 The applications of these sensors range from air-to-fuel ratio control in combustion processes including those in automotive engines and industrial furnaces to leakage detection of inflammable and toxic gases in domestic and industrial environments. As the need increases to accurately measure smaller and smaller concentrations, problems such as poor selectivity, stability and response time limit the use of these sensors. In an effort to overcome some of these limitations, a theoretical model of the transient behavior of solid state gas sensors has been developed. In this presentation, a model for the transient response of an electrochemical gas sensor to gas mixtures containing O2 and one reducing species, such as CO, is discussed. This model accounts for the transport of the reactive species to the sampling electrode, the catalyzed oxidation/reduction reaction of these species and the generation of the resulting electrical signal. The model will be shown to reproduce the results of published steady state models and to agree with experimental steady state and transient data.

Principal dynamic mode analysis of neural mass model for the identification of epileptic states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Yuzhen; Jin, Liu; Su, Fei; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin

2016-11-01

The detection of epileptic seizures in Electroencephalography (EEG) signals is significant for the diagnosis and treatment of epilepsy. In this paper, in order to obtain characteristics of various epileptiform EEGs that may differentiate different states of epilepsy, the concept of Principal Dynamic Modes (PDMs) was incorporated to an autoregressive model framework. First, the neural mass model was used to simulate the required intracerebral EEG signals of various epileptiform activities. Then, the PDMs estimated from the nonlinear autoregressive Volterra models, as well as the corresponding Associated Nonlinear Functions (ANFs), were used for the modeling of epileptic EEGs. The efficient PDM modeling approach provided physiological interpretation of the system. Results revealed that the ANFs of the 1st and 2nd PDMs for the auto-regressive input exhibited evident differences among different states of epilepsy, where the ANFs of the sustained spikes' activity encountered at seizure onset or during a seizure were the most differentiable from that of the normal state. Therefore, the ANFs may be characteristics for the classification of normal and seizure states in the clinical detection of seizures and thus provide assistance for the diagnosis of epilepsy.

STEADY-STATE MODEL OF SOLAR WIND ELECTRONS REVISITED

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Peter H.; Kim, Sunjung; Choe, G. S., E-mail: yoonp@umd.edu

2015-10-20

In a recent paper, Kim et al. put forth a steady-state model for the solar wind electrons. The model assumed local equilibrium between the halo electrons, characterized by an intermediate energy range, and the whistler-range fluctuations. The basic wave–particle interaction is assumed to be the cyclotron resonance. Similarly, it was assumed that a dynamical steady state is established between the highly energetic superhalo electrons and high-frequency Langmuir fluctuations. Comparisons with the measured solar wind electron velocity distribution function (VDF) during quiet times were also made, and reasonable agreements were obtained. In such a model, however, only the steady-state solution for themore » Fokker–Planck type of electron particle kinetic equation was considered. The present paper complements the previous analysis by considering both the steady-state particle and wave kinetic equations. It is shown that the model halo and superhalo electron VDFs, as well as the assumed wave intensity spectra for the whistler and Langmuir fluctuations, approximately satisfy the quasi-linear wave kinetic equations in an approximate sense, thus further validating the local equilibrium model constructed in the paper by Kim et al.« less

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

Phase transitions in a multistate majority-vote model on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hanshuang; Li, Guofeng

2018-06-01

We generalize the original majority-vote (MV) model from two states to arbitrary p states and study the order-disorder phase transitions in such a p -state MV model on complex networks. By extensive Monte Carlo simulations and a mean-field theory, we show that for p ≥3 the order of phase transition is essentially different from a continuous second-order phase transition in the original two-state MV model. Instead, for p ≥3 the model displays a discontinuous first-order phase transition, which is manifested by the appearance of the hysteresis phenomenon near the phase transition. Within the hysteresis loop, the ordered phase and disordered phase are coexisting, and rare flips between the two phases can be observed due to the finite-size fluctuation. Moreover, we investigate the type of phase transition under a slightly modified dynamics [Melo et al., J. Stat. Mech. (2010) P11032, 10.1088/1742-5468/2010/11/P11032]. We find that the order of phase transition in the three-state MV model depends on the degree heterogeneity of networks. For p ≥4 , both dynamics produce the first-order phase transitions.

Modeling of Two-Wheeled Self-Balancing Robot Driven by DC Gearmotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankovský, P.; Dominik, L.; Gmiterko, A.; Virgala, I.; Kurylo, P.; Perminova, O.

2017-08-01

This paper is aimed at modelling a two-wheeled self-balancing robot driven by the geared DC motors. A mathematical model consists of two main parts, the model of robot's mechanical structure and the model of the actuator. Linearized equations of motion are derived and the overall model of the two-wheeled self-balancing robot is represented in state-space realization for the purpose of state feedback controller design.

Modeling individual effects in the Cormack-Jolly-Seber Model: A state-space formulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2008-01-01

In population and evolutionary biology, there exists considerable interest in individual heterogeneity in parameters of demographic models for open populations. However, flexible and practical solutions to the development of such models have proven to be elusive. In this article, I provide a state-space formulation of open population capture-recapture models with individual effects. The state-space formulation provides a generic and flexible framework for modeling and inference in models with individual effects, and it yields a practical means of estimation in these complex problems via contemporary methods of Markov chain Monte Carlo. A straightforward implementation can be achieved in the software package WinBUGS. I provide an analysis of a simple model with constant parameter detection and survival probability parameters. A second example is based on data from a 7-year study of European dippers, in which a model with year and individual effects is fitted.

Get Over It! A Multilevel Threshold Autoregressive Model for State-Dependent Affect Regulation.

PubMed

De Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Gottman, John M; Bergeman, Cindy S; Hamaker, Ellen L

2016-03-01

Intensive longitudinal data provide rich information, which is best captured when specialized models are used in the analysis. One of these models is the multilevel autoregressive model, which psychologists have applied successfully to study affect regulation as well as alcohol use. A limitation of this model is that the autoregressive parameter is treated as a fixed, trait-like property of a person. We argue that the autoregressive parameter may be state-dependent, for example, if the strength of affect regulation depends on the intensity of affect experienced. To allow such intra-individual variation, we propose a multilevel threshold autoregressive model. Using simulations, we show that this model can be used to detect state-dependent regulation with adequate power and Type I error. The potential of the new modeling approach is illustrated with two empirical applications that extend the basic model to address additional substantive research questions.

Solvent effects in time-dependent self-consistent field methods. II. Variational formulations and analytical gradients

DOE PAGES

Bjorgaard, J. A.; Velizhanin, K. A.; Tretiak, S.

2015-08-06

This study describes variational energy expressions and analytical excited state energy gradients for time-dependent self-consistent field methods with polarizable solvent effects. Linear response, vertical excitation, and state-specific solventmodels are examined. Enforcing a variational ground stateenergy expression in the state-specific model is found to reduce it to the vertical excitation model. Variational excited state energy expressions are then provided for the linear response and vertical excitation models and analytical gradients are formulated. Using semiempiricalmodel chemistry, the variational expressions are verified by numerical and analytical differentiation with respect to a static external electric field. Lastly, analytical gradients are further tested by performingmore » microcanonical excited state molecular dynamics with p-nitroaniline.« less

Dynamical behaviors of inter-out-of-equilibrium state intervals in Korean futures exchange markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Kim, Kyungsik; Lee, Dong-In; Scalas, Enrico

2008-05-01

A recently discovered feature of financial markets, the two-phase phenomenon, is utilized to categorize a financial time series into two phases, namely equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium states. For out-of-equilibrium states, we analyze the time intervals at which the state is revisited. The power-law distribution of inter-out-of-equilibrium state intervals is shown and we present an analogy with discrete-time heat bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. In the mean-field approximation, this model reduces to a one-dimensional multiplicative process. By varying global and local model parameters, the relevance between volatilities in financial markets and the interaction strengths between agents in the Ising model are investigated and discussed.